SDI: setting the record straight
Adelman, K.L.
1985-01-01
After a few introductory remarks, Mr. Adelman first discusses Soviet propaganda against SDI. He then poses and answers questions regarding the following: SDI and the ABM Treaty; SDI and US arms control objectives; and the ethics of SDI. The final portion of the address reviews US nonproliferation efforts.
Statistics of football dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mendes, R. S.; Malacarne, L. C.; Anteneodo, C.
2007-06-01
We investigate the dynamics of football matches. Our goal is to characterize statistically the temporal sequence of ball movements in this collective sport game, searching for traits of complex behavior. Data were collected over a variety of matches in South American, European and World championships throughout 2005 and 2006. We show that the statistics of ball touches presents power-law tails and can be described by q-gamma distributions. To explain such behavior we propose a model that provides information on the characteristics of football dynamics. Furthermore, we discuss the statistics of duration of out-of-play intervals, not directly related to the previous scenario.
Marsh, G.E.
1987-03-01
Recent efforts to redefine the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) are mostly aimed at building support for a system to defend US land-based missiles. This is thought to be a more feasible goal than President Reagan's dream of an impregnable shield to defend the US population against ballistic missiles. But a feasible idea is not necessarily a good one. While chasing the population-defense fantasy would destroy the existing arms control regime and waste the national treasure of money and talent, defending land-based missiles would be dangerous and destabilizing. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger held fast to the idea of population defense in January, when he told the Senate Armed Services Committee that even early deployments of SDI systems that could be developed in the near future should be the first phase of a system that would protect the continent. But such statements may reflect the administration's determination to do away with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty more than its belief that population defense is a reasonable goal. The author notes that, to those longstanding problems of defense decision making, they must now add the pressures of SDI. Furthermore, whatever the motives of those who advocate redirecting SDI, it is clear that concerns about the vulnerability of land-based missiles could be addressed in more sensible ways. 5 references.
SDI and industrial technology policy
Zegveld, W.; Enzing, C.
1987-01-01
The author's central thesis is that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) program contains strong elements of industrial technology policy. They approach this thesis from the perspective of the role of government in the development of science and technology and from insight in the processes of technological innovation. They also investigate the issue of the economic consequences of simulating scientific and technological development via the military route. The study is structured in three parts. Part I discusses the SDI program, its origin, content, size, and prospects. Part II focusses on the role of government in technological development on the (meso) process of technological innovation. Part III focusses on the process of technological innovation and the economic significance of military R and D-spending.
Lee, S.
2011-05-05
The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and
The Evaluation of SISMAKOM (Computerized SDI Project).
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
University of Science, Penang (Malaysia).
A survey of 88 users of SISMAKOM, a computerized selective dissemination of information (SDI) and document delivery service provided by the Universiti Sains Malaysia and four other Malaysian universities, was conducted in August 1982 in order to collect data about SISMAKOM and to assess the value of a computerized SDI service in a developing…
MEDLINE SDI services: how do they compare?*
Shultz, Mary; De Groote, Sandra L.
2003-01-01
Introduction: Selective dissemination of information (SDI) services regularly alert users to new information on their chosen topics. This type of service can increase a user's ability to keep current and may have a positive impact on efficiency and productivity. Currently, there are many venues available where users can establish, store, and automatically run MEDLINE searches. Purpose: To describe, evaluate, and compare SDI services for MEDLINE. Resources: The following SDI services were selected for this study: PubMed Cubby, BioMail, JADE, PubCrawler, OVID, and ScienceDirect. Methodology: Identical searches were established in four of the six selected SDI services and were run on a weekly basis over a period of two months. Eight search strategies were used in each system to test performance under various search conditions. The PubMed Cubby system was used as the baseline against which the other systems were compared. Other aspects were evaluated in all six services and include ease of use, frequency of results, ability to use MeSH, ability to access and edit existing search strategies, and ability to download to a bibliographic management program. Results: Not all MEDLINE SDI services retrieve identical results, even when identical search strategies are used. This study also showed that the services vary in terms of features and functions offered. PMID:14566377
SDI spinoffs: research now, standards later
Smith, T.K. Jr.
1986-04-01
A major benefit of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) its is potential for technological spinoffs. The lack of a consistent answer on the feasibility of developing an effective ballistic missile defense system may force Congress to look at the possible spinoffs in order to make a funding decision on SDI. Spinoffs have historically played an important role in providing industry with commercial applications, but there are also a number of unattractive aspects: unpredictability and possible suppression for national security reasons. Edward Teller is among those who promote X-ray lasers, while others support gamma-ray laser research. The possibility of SDI technology and spinoffs gives scientists and engineers a chance to participate in the development of new standards. 7 references.
Deriving statistical closure from dynamical optimization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Turkington, Bruce
2015-11-01
Turbulence theorists have traditionally deduced statistical models by generating a hierarchy of moment equations and invoking some closure rules to truncate the hierarchy. In this talk a conceptually different approach to model reduction and statistical closure will be presented, and its implications for coarse-graining fluid turbulence will be indicated. The author has developed this method in the context of nonequilibrium statistical descriptions of Hamiltonian systems with many degrees of freedom. With respect to a chosen parametric statistical model, the lack-of-fit of model paths to the full dynamics is minimized in a time-integrated, mean-squared sense. This optimal closure method is applied to coarse-grain spectrally-truncated inviscid dynamics, including the Burgers-Hopf equation and incompressible two-dimensional flow, using the means and/or variances of low modes as resolved variables. The derived reduced dynamics for these test cases contain (1) scale-dependent dissipation which is not a local eddy viscosity, (2) modified nonlinear interactions between resolved modes, and (3) coupling between the mean and variance of each resolved mode. These predictions are validated against direct numerical simulations of ensembles for the fully resolved dynamics.
Operational Results of an Adaptive SDI System.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sage, C. R.; Fitzwater, D. R.
The Ames Laboratory SDI system requires a minimum of human intervention. The adaptability of the system provides two major contributions to information dissemination. (1) The user benefits proportionately from the amount of effort he expends in setting up his profile and the diligence in sending back responses. (2) The document input has only to…
SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative): a policy analysis
Fought, S.O.
1987-01-01
Contents include -- Foundations of Deterrence; A Model for Stability; Analysis of SDI/Stability; Related Issues; Treatment of Implementation Factors; Historical Evolution and Trends; The Strategic Choices and Flexible Response; The Planners' Perspective; The Impact of Strategic Defense on a Strategy of Flexible Response; Synthesis.
Takatsuka, Kazuo; Matsumoto, Kentaro
2016-01-21
We present a basic theory to study real-time dynamics embedded in a large environment that is treated using a statistical method. In light of great progress in the molecular-level studies on time-resolved spectroscopies, chemical reaction dynamics, and so on, not only in the gas phase but also in condensed phases like liquid solvents and even in crowded environments in living cells, we need to bridge over a gap between statistical mechanics and microscopic real-time dynamics. For instance, an analogy to gas-phase dynamics in which molecules are driven by the gradient of the potential energy hyper-surfaces (PESs) suggests that particles in condensed phases should run on the free energy surface instead. The question is whether this anticipation is correct. To answer it, we here propose a mixed dynamics and statistical representation to treat chemical dynamics embedded in a statistical ensemble. We first define the entropy functional, which is a function of the phase-space position of the dynamical subsystem, being dressed with statistical weights from the statistical counterpart. We then consider the functionals of temperature, free energy, and chemical potential as their extensions in statistical mechanics, through which one can clarify the relationship between real-time microscopic dynamics and statistical quantities. As an illustrative example we show that molecules in the dynamical subsystem should run on the free-energy functional surface, if and only if the spatial gradients of the temperature functional are all zero. Otherwise, additional forces emerge from the gradient of the temperature functional. Numerical demonstrations are presented at the very basic level of this theory of molecular dissociation in atomic cluster solvents. PMID:26674298
The origins of SDI, 1944--1983
Baucom, D.R.
1992-01-01
The most distinctive and important contribution of this new book on the Strategic Defense Initiative is that it ends where most other studies begin, with President Ronald Reagan's famous (or infamous, depending on one's perspective) March 1983 speech that introduced the Star Wars concept. In taking this approach, Donald R. Baucom - a former Air Force historian who has been the official historian who has been the official historian of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization since May 1987 - helps to correct the common misperception that US efforts in strategic defense began and ended with the SDI. Although Baucom tells us that The Origins of SDI is a significantly revised version of an SDIO study he completed in 1989, representing his own views and not those of the SDIO, the reader should be warned that the book reads like an official history. It is often dry or too episodic and offers little that is new in the way of analysis or interpretation.
Segmenting dynamic human action via statistical structure.
Baldwin, Dare; Andersson, Annika; Saffran, Jenny; Meyer, Meredith
2008-03-01
Human social, cognitive, and linguistic functioning depends on skills for rapidly processing action. Identifying distinct acts within the dynamic motion flow is one basic component of action processing; for example, skill at segmenting action is foundational to action categorization, verb learning, and comprehension of novel action sequences. Yet little is currently known about mechanisms that may subserve action segmentation. The present research documents that adults can register statistical regularities providing clues to action segmentation. This finding provides new evidence that structural knowledge gained by mechanisms such as statistical learning can play a role in action segmentation, and highlights a striking parallel between processing of action and processing in other domains, such as language. PMID:18035346
SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative): Shield or sword. Study Project
Butler, C.S.; Spiczak, G.R.
1989-05-15
The paper attempts to answer the fundamental question, is SDI an adjunct to a first strike strategy. As its criteria, it discusses Soviet and U.S. opposing views on SDI, an historical application of Mutual Assured Destruction strategy, and a discussion of Soviet and U.S. thinking on first-strike capability. President Reagan's March 1983 address on SDI is used as the backdrop to set the stage for the discussion. It is the objective of the authors to evaluate and analyze the potential impact of SDI on first strike.
Controlling statistical moments of stochastic dynamical networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bielievtsov, Dmytro; Ladenbauer, Josef; Obermayer, Klaus
2016-07-01
We consider a general class of stochastic networks and ask which network nodes need to be controlled, and how, to stabilize and switch between desired metastable (target) states in terms of the first and second statistical moments of the system. We first show that it is sufficient to directly interfere with a subset of nodes which can be identified using information about the graph of the network only. Then we develop a suitable method for feedback control which acts on that subset of nodes and preserves the covariance structure of the desired target state. Finally, we demonstrate our theoretical results using a stochastic Hopfield network and a global brain model. Our results are applicable to a variety of (model) networks and further our understanding of the relationship between network structure and collective dynamics for the benefit of effective control.
Controlling statistical moments of stochastic dynamical networks.
Bielievtsov, Dmytro; Ladenbauer, Josef; Obermayer, Klaus
2016-07-01
We consider a general class of stochastic networks and ask which network nodes need to be controlled, and how, to stabilize and switch between desired metastable (target) states in terms of the first and second statistical moments of the system. We first show that it is sufficient to directly interfere with a subset of nodes which can be identified using information about the graph of the network only. Then we develop a suitable method for feedback control which acts on that subset of nodes and preserves the covariance structure of the desired target state. Finally, we demonstrate our theoretical results using a stochastic Hopfield network and a global brain model. Our results are applicable to a variety of (model) networks and further our understanding of the relationship between network structure and collective dynamics for the benefit of effective control. PMID:27575147
Using SDI-12 with ST microelectronics MCU's
Saari, Alexandra; Hinzey, Shawn Adrian; Frigo, Janette Rose; Proicou, Michael Chris; Borges, Louis
2015-09-03
ST Microelectronics microcontrollers and processors are readily available, capable and economical processors. Unfortunately they lack a broad user base like similar offerings from Texas Instrument, Atmel, or Microchip. All of these devices could be useful in economical devices for remote sensing applications used with environmental sensing. With the increased need for environmental studies, and limited budgets, flexibility in hardware is very important. To that end, and in an effort to increase open support of ST devices, I am sharing my teams' experience in interfacing a common environmental sensor communication protocol (SDI-12) with ST devices.
Investigating strategies to improve crop germination when using SDI
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
As the nation's population increases and available irrigation water decreases, new technologies are being developed to maintain or increase production on fewer acres. One of these advancements has been the use of subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) on field crops. Research has shown that SDI is the m...
Lost in space: SDI struggles through its sixth year
MacDonald, B.W.
1989-09-01
After six years of debate, it is clear that Congress is willing to support a robust research program for SDI, but it is also clear that Congress will not support SDI annual outlays on the order of $10 billion. Thus the policy choice is between a good research program that meshes with fiscal reality, or an inadequate and wasteful development program that continues to focus on preparing for a Phase I deployment for which the funds simply will not be available. The Bush administration so far seems trapped by its own rhetoric from coming to grips with the implications of the new SDI reality. The responsibility for getting SDI on a steadier course toward more realistic research objectives thus seems to lie with Congress in the near term. Since Congress has been reluctant to earmark SDI research funds for specific objectives, it will take a change in administration perceptions before SDI program goals can be changed away from Phase I deployment. The only likely way this could happen in the near term would be as a result of a Congress-executive branch summit agreement on SDI objectives and funding levels. In the absence of such an agreement, SDI will be sailing under ever weaker fiscal and political winds and runs the risk of finding itself becalmed, working ceaselessly toward goals that will never be fulfilled.
Surface drip irrigation (SDI): Status of the technology in 2010
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), although a much smaller fraction of the microirrigated land area than surface drip irrigation, is growing at a much faster rate and is the subject of considerable research and educational efforts in the United States. This paper will discuss the growth in SDI, highl...
Teachers' Use of Transnumeration in Solving Statistical Tasks with Dynamic Statistical Software
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lee, Hollylynne S.; Kersaint, Gladis; Harper, Suzanne R.; Driskell, Shannon O.; Jones, Dusty L.; Leatham, Keith R.; Angotti, Robin L.; Adu-Gyamfi, Kwaku
2014-01-01
This study examined a random stratified sample (n = 62) of teachers' work across eight institutions on three tasks that utilized dynamic statistical software. We considered how teachers may utilize and develop their statistical knowledge and technological statistical knowledge when investigating a statistical task. We examined how teachers…
The technology, strategy, and politics of SDI
Cimbala, S.J.
1987-01-01
The Strategic Defense Initiative to develop a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system has short- and long-range risks as well as potential benefits. For the most part, however, strategic, technological, and political issues relevant to SDI have been analyzed in isolation from one another. This collection provides a more inclusive framework for assessing the possible development and deployment of a BMD system by the U.S. or the Soviet Union. The contributors discuss the risk for arms race stability, probable reactions of the Soviet Union to any U.S. space-based defense system, and implications for the stability of extended deterrence commitments to NATO European allies. They also evaluate Soviet research and development programs in missile defense that must be considered in any extrapolation of the requirements for U.S. deterrence in the next several decades.
Artificial intelligence applications in space and SDI: A survey
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fiala, Harvey E.
1988-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to survey existing and planned Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications to show that they are sufficiently advanced for 32 percent of all space applications and SDI (Space Defense Initiative) software to be AI-based software. To best define the needs that AI can fill in space and SDI programs, this paper enumerates primary areas of research and lists generic application areas. Current and planned NASA and military space projects in AI will be reviewed. This review will be largely in the selected area of expert systems. Finally, direct applications of AI to SDI will be treated. The conclusion covers the importance of AI to space and SDI applications, and conversely, their importance to AI.
Air Force Satellite Control Network and SDI development
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bleier, T.
The Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN) represents a military, worldwide network of control centers and remote tracking sites (RTS). A relatively large and growing constellation of DOD satellites is supported. The near term and long term plans for the AFSCN are discussed, taking into account also the impact of the Space Defense Initiative (SDI) on the AFSCN. It is pointed out that the SDI adds a new dimension to the support provided by the AFSCN to the DOD satellites, because some SDI scenarios being considered include many more satellite platforms, each containing multiple kinetic energy weapons. Space-ground link sites are discussed along with AFSCN control sites, and communication between RTS and control centers. Attention is given to changing roles and responsibilities, the Satellite Test Center (STC) as an excellent site for the R and D phase of SDI development, and an operational concept for a highly proliferated weapons platforms architecture, and goals of developing more survivable satellite systems.
Segmenting Dynamic Human Action via Statistical Structure
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Baldwin, Dare; Andersson, Annika; Saffran, Jenny; Meyer, Meredith
2008-01-01
Human social, cognitive, and linguistic functioning depends on skills for rapidly processing action. Identifying distinct acts within the dynamic motion flow is one basic component of action processing; for example, skill at segmenting action is foundational to action categorization, verb learning, and comprehension of novel action sequences. Yet…
Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghil, M.
2013-05-01
In this talk, I will review some recent work on extreme events, their causes and consequences. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts. US GDP data used in validating the vulnerability paradox found in a Non-Equilibrium Dynamical Model (NEDyM) for studying the impact of extreme events on a dynamic economy. The paradoxical result is that natural hazards affect more strongly an economy in expansion than when it is in a recession. The connection to the macroeconomic data is given by fluctuation-dissipation theory.
Dynamics and statistics of unstable quantum states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sokolov, V. V.; Zelevinsky, V. G.
1989-11-01
The statistical theory of spectra formulated in terms of random matrices is extended to unstable states. The energies and widths of these states are treated as real and imaginary parts of complex eigenvalues for an effective non-hermitian hamiltonian. Eigenvalue statistics are investigated under simple assumptions. If the coupling through common decay channels is weak we obtain a Wigner distribution for the level spacings and a Porter-Thomas one for the widths, with the only exception for spacings less than widths where level repulsion fades out. Meanwhile in the complex energy plane the repulsion of eigenvalues is quadratic in accordance with the T-noninvariant character of decaying systems. In the opposite case of strong coupling with the continuum, k short-lived states are formed ( k is the number of open decay channels). These states accumulate almost the whole total width, the rest of the states becoming long-lived. Such a perestroika corresponds to separation of direct processes (a nuclear analogue of Dicke coherent superradiance). At small channel number, Ericson fluctuations of the cross sections are found to be suppressed. The one-channel case is considered in detail. The joint distribution of energies and widths is obtained. The average cross sections and density of unstable states are calculated.
Protein electron transfer: Dynamics and statistics.
Matyushov, Dmitry V
2013-07-14
Electron transfer between redox proteins participating in energy chains of biology is required to proceed with high energetic efficiency, minimizing losses of redox energy to heat. Within the standard models of electron transfer, this requirement, combined with the need for unidirectional (preferably activationless) transitions, is translated into the need to minimize the reorganization energy of electron transfer. This design program is, however, unrealistic for proteins whose active sites are typically positioned close to the polar and flexible protein-water interface to allow inter-protein electron tunneling. The high flexibility of the interfacial region makes both the hydration water and the surface protein layer act as highly polar solvents. The reorganization energy, as measured by fluctuations, is not minimized, but rather maximized in this region. Natural systems in fact utilize the broad breadth of interfacial electrostatic fluctuations, but in the ways not anticipated by the standard models based on equilibrium thermodynamics. The combination of the broad spectrum of static fluctuations with their dispersive dynamics offers the mechanism of dynamical freezing (ergodicity breaking) of subsets of nuclear modes on the time of reaction/residence of the electron at a redox cofactor. The separation of time-scales of nuclear modes coupled to electron transfer allows dynamical freezing. In particular, the separation between the relaxation time of electro-elastic fluctuations of the interface and the time of conformational transitions of the protein caused by changing redox state results in dynamical freezing of the latter for sufficiently fast electron transfer. The observable consequence of this dynamical freezing is significantly different reorganization energies describing the curvature at the bottom of electron-transfer free energy surfaces (large) and the distance between their minima (Stokes shift, small). The ratio of the two reorganization energies
SDI-Based Groundwater Information Interoperability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brodaric, B.; Boisvert, E.
2007-12-01
Though groundwater data are important inputs to hydrologic decision-making, they are highly distributed and heterogeneous, and thus difficult to access in a coordinated manner. The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) is developing an information system for coordinated groundwater data access, using the standards and technologies of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI). In mid-stage development, the system is designed to manage and disseminate data produced by GSC scientists, as well as potentially disseminate data produced by other groundwater agencies. The system involves a typical three-tiered, mediator-wrapper architecture that includes a data tier, a mediator tier, and an applications tier. At the data tier local data sources are wrapped by OGC web services (WFS, WMS), which deliver diversely structured data to the mediator tier. The mediator tier acts as: (1) a central registry for the distributed data and other services; (2) a translator of the local data to the standard data format, GroundWater Markup Language; and (3) a consistent set of OGC web services that enable users to access the distributed data as one source. The applications tier involves both GSC and third-party web applications, such as analysis tools or on-line atlases, that provide user interfaces to the system. Apart from the data format standards used to achieve schematic interoperability, the system also deploys some light-weight data content standards to move toward semantic interoperability. These content standards include the definition of common categories for datasets such as standard subject classifications and map layers. A demonstration of the working prototype will be available, as well as discussion of the architecture of the system and the impacts on interoperability. The intent of the development is to grow the system into a national enterprise with a broad range of contributors and users.
Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghil, M.
2011-12-01
In this talk, I will review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.
Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghil, M.; Yiou, P.; Hallegatte, S.; Malamud, B. D.; Naveau, P.; Soloviev, A.; Friederichs, P.; Keilis-Borok, V.; Kondrashov, D.; Kossobokov, V.; Mestre, O.; Nicolis, C.; Rust, H. W.; Shebalin, P.; Vrac, M.; Witt, A.; Zaliapin, I.
2011-05-01
We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.
Statistics of dynamic speckles in application to distance measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kamshilin, Alexei A.; Miridonov, Serguei V.; Sidorov, Igor S.; Semenov, Dmitry V.; Nippolainen, Ervin
2009-03-01
We present an analysis of statistical properties of dynamic speckles to estimate the limiting accuracy of measurements achievable in a distance sensor using spatially filtered dynamic speckles. The main reason for inaccurate measurements using dynamic speckles is their stochastic nature. It is shown that the average lifetime of dynamic speckles is the key factor defining the measurement accuracy. Main conclusions of the theoretical analysis were confirmed in an experiment carried out with a fast moving rough surface. Special attention is paid to a recently proposed range sensor using dynamic speckles generated by a fast-deflecting laser beam. It is shown that this sensor possesses the best combination of accuracy and response time.
Statistics and dynamics of the perturbed universe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemson, G.
1995-09-01
Wilson discovered the corresponding radiation field, at a temperature of roughly 3K (Penzias & Wilson, 1965). It soon appeared that this microwave background radiation was isotropic to a high degree, which conrmed the assumptions made about the homogeneity of the early Universe. At present however, we see that the Universe is no longer featureless and smooth. Starting from the smallest scales we see matter organized in structures up to very large scales: from planets to stars to stellar systems to galaxies to groups and clusters of galaxies, up to super-clusters, where clusters and galaxies are organized in the largest structures known. Somewhere during the evolution of the Universe, these structures must have developed out of the featureless, uniform sea of matter and radiation. Various different theories have been developed to explain the emergence of structure, but in this thesis I will concentrate exclusively on the most generally accepted theory, that of gravitational instability. In this theory it is assumed that in the early Universe, small fluctuations in the density were present, and these would grow under the influence of gravity towards the presently observed structures. There is actually a rather complete theory of the early stages of this process, that regime where these deviations from homogeneity are small. In that case, the inhomogeneous field may be seen as a small disturbance to the uniform model, and the standard apparatus of perturbation theory may be applied. In this thesis I investigate the later stages of this process of structure formation, where the fluctuations have grown to such a size that this 'linear' perturbation approach breaks down. There is as yet no comprehensive model describing this 'nonlinear' regime as successfully as the linear theory describes the early stages of structure formation. Instead, the problem is approached from many different directions, using different, approximate models for describing the dynamics and other
Statistics and dynamics of the perturbed universe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lemson, G.
1995-09-01
Wilson discovered the corresponding radiation field, at a temperature of roughly 3K (Penzias & Wilson, 1965). It soon appeared that this microwave background radiation was isotropic to a high degree, which conrmed the assumptions made about the homogeneity of the early Universe. At present however, we see that the Universe is no longer featureless and smooth. Starting from the smallest scales we see matter organized in structures up to very large scales: from planets to stars to stellar systems to galaxies to groups and clusters of galaxies, up to super-clusters, where clusters and galaxies are organized in the largest structures known. Somewhere during the evolution of the Universe, these structures must have developed out of the featureless, uniform sea of matter and radiation. Various different theories have been developed to explain the emergence of structure, but in this thesis I will concentrate exclusively on the most generally accepted theory, that of gravitational instability. In this theory it is assumed that in the early Universe, small fluctuations in the density were present, and these would grow under the influence of gravity towards the presently observed structures. There is actually a rather complete theory of the early stages of this process, that regime where these deviations from homogeneity are small. In that case, the inhomogeneous field may be seen as a small disturbance to the uniform model, and the standard apparatus of perturbation theory may be applied. In this thesis I investigate the later stages of this process of structure formation, where the fluctuations have grown to such a size that this 'linear' perturbation approach breaks down. There is as yet no comprehensive model describing this 'nonlinear' regime as successfully as the linear theory describes the early stages of structure formation. Instead, the problem is approached from many different directions, using different, approximate models for describing the dynamics and other
Statistical coarse-graining of molecular dynamics into peridynamics.
Silling, Stewart Andrew; Lehoucq, Richard B.
2007-10-01
This paper describes an elegant statistical coarse-graining of molecular dynamics at finite temperature into peridynamics, a continuum theory. Peridynamics is an efficient alternative to molecular dynamics enabling dynamics at larger length and time scales. In direct analogy with molecular dynamics, peridynamics uses a nonlocal model of force and does not employ stress/strain relationships germane to classical continuum mechanics. In contrast with classical continuum mechanics, the peridynamic representation of a system of linear springs and masses is shown to have the same dispersion relation as the original spring-mass system.
Design and Installation of SDI Systems in North Carolina
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
As a part of the humid Southeast, North Carolina’s climate, topography, soils, cropping systems, and water sources require special consideration when considering and implementing a subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system. This publication is not a step-by-step design manual, but it will help you in ...
Survey of Current Systems for Selective Dissemination of Information. (SDI).
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Houseman, Edward M., Ed.
Reproductions of 100 fact sheets received in response to a comprehensive survey of known and suspected Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) systems are organized into operational, pilot and planned systems. The survey form was designed to give a detailed picture of system design features, organized so that the reader can rapidly locate…
Ames Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) System Operating Manual.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Anderson, Lloyd E.; Wegner, Waldo W.
The Ames Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) System is an attempt to efficiently place rapidly increasing amounts of information into the hands of scientists and engineers who can exploit it. It is a computerized current awareness system designed to increase researchers' literature searching capabilities by bringing to their attention…
Computerized Information Service--SDI. Annual Report 1974-75.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hjerppe, Roland
The Information and Documentation Centre of the Royal Institute of Technology Library performs research and development in information science. The two main areas of this continuing research and development programme are (1) development of a comprehensive SDI service and (2) investigations in interactive retrieval services. This annual report…
SDI Considerations for North Carolina Growers and Producers
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Humid areas, such as the southeastern and midsouthern United States, have particular climate, topography, soils, cropping systems, and water sources that require special consideration when implementing a subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system. These factors are normally different enough in value or...
SDI: O, what a tangled web we weave
Keeny, S.M. Jr.
1993-11-01
The ghost of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) still haunts the Pentagon. The recent relevation that the highly publicized 1984 intercept of a mock Soviet reentry vehicle (RV) was rigged - as part of a highly secret deception plan to mislead the Soviet Union - has raised questions about the integrity and wisdom of defense development and policy processes.
SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative): technology, survivability, and software
Not Available
1988-05-01
This report reviews the status of the various SDI technologies and system components. It analyzes the feasibility of producing dependable software of the complexity that advanced BMD systems would require. Finally, it summarizes what is now known, and unknown, about the probable survivability of such systems against concerted enemy attacks of various kinds.
Soviet SDI Rhetoric: The "Evil Empire" Vision of Mikhail Gorbachev.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kelley, Colleen E.
The symbolic presence of Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) has been and continues to be the pivot point in all summitry rhetoric between the American President and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. To examine some of the rhetorical choices made by Gorbachev to dramatize his vision of why Ronald Reagan refuses to…
Statistical determination of space shuttle component dynamic magnification factors
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lehner, F.
1973-01-01
A method is presented of obtaining vibration design loads for components and brackets. Dynamic Magnification Factors from applicable Saturn/Apollo qualification, reliability, and vibroacoustic tests have been statistically formulated into design nomographs. These design nomographs have been developed for different component and bracket types, mounted on backup structure or rigidly mounted and excited by sinusoidal or random inputs. Typical nomographs are shown.
Exploring Foundation Concepts in Introductory Statistics Using Dynamic Data Points
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ekol, George
2015-01-01
This paper analyses introductory statistics students' verbal and gestural expressions as they interacted with a dynamic sketch (DS) designed using "Sketchpad" software. The DS involved numeric data points built on the number line whose values changed as the points were dragged along the number line. The study is framed on aggregate…
Seasonal statistical-dynamical forecasts of droughts over Western Iberia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ribeiro, Andreia; Pires, Carlos
2015-04-01
The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used here as a drought predictand in order to assess seasonal drought predictability over the western Iberia. Hybrid (statistical-dynamical) long-range forecasts of the drought index SPI are estimated with lead-times up to 6 months, over the period of 1987-2008. Operational forecasts of geopotential height and total precipitation from the UK Met Office operational forecasting system are considered. Past ERA-Interim reanalysis data, prior to the forecast launching, are used for the purpose of build a set of SPI predictors, integrating recent past observations. Then, a two-step hybridization procedure is adopted: in the first-step both forecasted and observational large-scale fields are subjected to a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and forecasted PCs and persistent PCs are used as predictors. The second hybridization step consists on a statistical/hybrid downscaling to the regional scale based on regression techniques, after the selection of the statistically significant predictors. The large-scale filter predictors from past observations and operational forecasts are used to downscale SPI and the advantage of combining predictors with both dynamical and statistical background in the prediction of drought conditions at different lags is evaluated. The SPI estimations and the added value of combining dynamical and statistical methods are evaluated in cross-validation mode. Results show that winter is the most predictable season, and most of the predictive power is on the large-scale fields and at the shorter lead-times. The hybridization improves forecasting drought skill in comparison to purely dynamical forecasts, since the persistence of large-scale patterns displays the main role in the long-range predictability of precipitation. These findings provide clues about the predictability of the SPI, particularly in Portugal, and may contribute to the predictability of crops yields and to some guidance on users (such
Statistical method of evaluation of flip-flop dynamical parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wieczorek, P. Z.; Opalski, L. J.
2008-01-01
This paper presents statistical algorithm and measurement system for precise evaluation of flip-flop dynamical parameters in asynchronous operation. The analyzed flip-flop parameters are failure probability, MTBF and propagation delay. It is shown how these parameters depend on metastable operation of flip-flops. The numerical and hardware solutions shown in article allow for precise and reliable comparison of flip-flops. Also the analysis of influence of flip-flop electrical parameters of flip-flop electrical parameters on their metastable operation is possible with use of presented statistical method. Statistical estimation of parameters of flip-flops in which metastability occurs, seems to be more reliable than standard empirical methods of flip-flop analysis. Presented method allows for showing inaccuracies in theoretical model of metastability.
Dynamics, stability, and statistics on lattices and networks
Livi, Roberto
2014-07-15
These lectures aim at surveying some dynamical models that have been widely explored in the recent scientific literature as case studies of complex dynamical evolution, emerging from the spatio-temporal organization of several coupled dynamical variables. The first message is that a suitable mathematical description of such models needs tools and concepts borrowed from the general theory of dynamical systems and from out-of-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The second message is that the overall scenario is definitely reacher than the standard problems in these fields. For instance, systems exhibiting complex unpredictable evolution do not necessarily exhibit deterministic chaotic behavior (i.e., Lyapunov chaos) as it happens for dynamical models made of a few degrees of freedom. In fact, a very large number of spatially organized dynamical variables may yield unpredictable evolution even in the absence of Lyapunov instability. Such a mechanism may emerge from the combination of spatial extension and nonlinearity. Moreover, spatial extension allows one to introduce naturally disorder, or heterogeneity of the interactions as important ingredients for complex evolution. It is worth to point out that the models discussed in these lectures share such features, despite they have been inspired by quite different physical and biological problems. Along these lectures we describe also some of the technical tools employed for the study of such models, e.g., Lyapunov stability analysis, unpredictability indicators for “stable chaos,” hydrodynamic description of transport in low spatial dimension, spectral decomposition of stochastic dynamics on directed networks, etc.
Statistical energy conservation principle for inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems
Majda, Andrew J.
2015-01-01
Understanding the complexity of anisotropic turbulent processes over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales in engineering shear turbulence as well as climate atmosphere ocean science is a grand challenge of contemporary science with important societal impact. In such inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems there is a large dimensional phase space with a large dimension of unstable directions where a large-scale ensemble mean and the turbulent fluctuations exchange energy and strongly influence each other. These complex features strongly impact practical prediction and uncertainty quantification. A systematic energy conservation principle is developed here in a Theorem that precisely accounts for the statistical energy exchange between the mean flow and the related turbulent fluctuations. This statistical energy is a sum of the energy in the mean and the trace of the covariance of the fluctuating turbulence. This result applies to general inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems including the above applications. The Theorem involves an assessment of statistical symmetries for the nonlinear interactions and a self-contained treatment is presented below. Corollary 1 and Corollary 2 illustrate the power of the method with general closed differential equalities for the statistical energy in time either exactly or with upper and lower bounds, provided that the negative symmetric dissipation matrix is diagonal in a suitable basis. Implications of the energy principle for low-order closure modeling and automatic estimates for the single point variance are discussed below. PMID:26150510
Statistical energy conservation principle for inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems.
Majda, Andrew J
2015-07-21
Understanding the complexity of anisotropic turbulent processes over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales in engineering shear turbulence as well as climate atmosphere ocean science is a grand challenge of contemporary science with important societal impact. In such inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems there is a large dimensional phase space with a large dimension of unstable directions where a large-scale ensemble mean and the turbulent fluctuations exchange energy and strongly influence each other. These complex features strongly impact practical prediction and uncertainty quantification. A systematic energy conservation principle is developed here in a Theorem that precisely accounts for the statistical energy exchange between the mean flow and the related turbulent fluctuations. This statistical energy is a sum of the energy in the mean and the trace of the covariance of the fluctuating turbulence. This result applies to general inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems including the above applications. The Theorem involves an assessment of statistical symmetries for the nonlinear interactions and a self-contained treatment is presented below. Corollary 1 and Corollary 2 illustrate the power of the method with general closed differential equalities for the statistical energy in time either exactly or with upper and lower bounds, provided that the negative symmetric dissipation matrix is diagonal in a suitable basis. Implications of the energy principle for low-order closure modeling and automatic estimates for the single point variance are discussed below. PMID:26150510
Soviet military on SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative). Professional paper
Fitzgerald, M.C.
1987-08-01
Numerous Western analysts have suggested that all American assessments of SDI should proceed not only from a consideration of American intentions, but also from the outlook of Soviet perceptions. Since 23 March 1983, the prevailing tone of Soviet military writings on SDI has been overwhelmingly negative. Myron Hedlin has concluded that this harsh reaction to a U.S. initiative still years from realization suggests both a strong concern about the ultimate impact of these plans on the strategic balance, and a perceived opportunity for scoring propaganda points. Indeed, the present review of Soviet writings since President Reagan's so-called Star Wars speech has yielded both objective Soviet concerns and regressions to psychological warfare. This, in turn, has necessitated a careful effort to separate rhetoric from more official assessments of SDI. While there has long been dispute in the West over the validity of Soviet statements, they have time and again been subsequently confirmed in Soviet hardware, exercises, and operational behavior. Some Western analysts will nonetheless contend that the Soviet statements under examination in this study are merely a commodity for export.
A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James
2013-04-01
Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.
Statistical characterization of complex object structure by dynamic tomography
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tillack, Gerd-Rüdiger; Goebbels, Jürgen; Illerhaus, Bernhard; Artemiev, Valentin; Naumov, Alexander
2002-05-01
Considering modern materials like reinforced plastics or metal foams the mechanical properties of the component are not determined by every single structural element like a single fiber in a composite. Moreover the ensemble mean and correlation properties of all structural elements form the mechanical properties of the component. Accordingly a statistical description of material properties on a macroscopic scale allow to characterize its mechanical behavior or aging. State of the art tomographic techniques assign a measure of material properties to a volume element. The discretization, i.e., the volume or size of a single element, is limited mainly by the physical mechanisms and the equipment used for the data acquisition. In any case the result of reconstruction yields a statistical average within the considered volume element. To evaluate the integrity of the component the determined measures have to be correlated with the mechanical properties of the component. Special reconstruction algorithms are investigated that allow the statistical description of complex object structures including its dynamics. The algorithm is based on the Kalman filter using statistical prior. The prior includes knowledge about the covariance matrix as well as a prior assumption about the probability density distribution function. The resulting algorithm is recursive yielding a quasi-optimal solution at every reconstruction step. The applicability of the developed algorithm is discussed for the investigation of a specimen made from aluminum foam.
Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output
Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J., Jr.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.
2000-01-01
Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.
Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics
Marchewka, Avi; Granot, Er’el
2015-04-15
The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested.
Dynamic statistical models of biological cognition: insights from communications theory
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wallace, Rodrick
2014-10-01
Maturana's cognitive perspective on the living state, Dretske's insight on how information theory constrains cognition, the Atlan/Cohen cognitive paradigm, and models of intelligence without representation, permit construction of a spectrum of dynamic necessary conditions statistical models of signal transduction, regulation, and metabolism at and across the many scales and levels of organisation of an organism and its context. Nonequilibrium critical phenomena analogous to physical phase transitions, driven by crosstalk, will be ubiquitous, representing not only signal switching, but the recruitment of underlying cognitive modules into tunable dynamic coalitions that address changing patterns of need and opportunity at all scales and levels of organisation. The models proposed here, while certainly providing much conceptual insight, should be most useful in the analysis of empirical data, much as are fitted regression equations.
A whirlwind tour of statistical methods in structural dynamics.
Booker, J. M.
2004-01-01
Several statistical methods and their corresponding principles of application to structural dynamics problems will be presented. This set was chosen based upon the projects and their corresponding challenges in the Engineering Sciences & Applications (ESA) Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory and focuses on variance-based uncertainty quantification. Our structural dynamics applications are heavily involved in modeling and simulation, often with sparse data availability. In addition to models, heavy reliance is placed upon the use of expertise and experience. Beginning with principles of inference and prediction, some statistical tools for verification and validation are introduced. Among these are the principles of good experimental design for test and model computation planning, and the combination of data, models and knowledge through the use of Bayes Theorem. A brief introduction to multivariate methods and exploratory data analysis will be presented as part of understanding relationships and variation among important parameters, physical quantities of interest, measurements, inputs and outputs. Finally, the use of these methods and principles will be discussed in drawing conclusions from the validation assessment process under uncertainty.
Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics: Introduction, Dynamical Foundations and Applications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsallis, Constantino
2003-03-01
Many natural and artificial systems exist whose thermostatistical properties appear to be hardly tractable or just untractable within Boltzmann-Gibbes statistical mechanics. Nonextensive statistical mechanics is a generalization of the standard formalism which addresses such systems, typically characterized by long-range interactions, long-range memory, (multi)fractal structures and similar anomalies. This formalism is based on the entropic form Sq = k (1-sumi p_i^q)/(q-1) (S1 = - k sumi pi ln p_i). A brief review of the formalism as well as some illustrative applications will be presented. Finally, the a priori calculation of the entropic index q to be associated with specific systems will be exhibited, starting from the knowledge of the corresponding micorscopic or mesoscopic dynamics. This formalism yields, for nonequilibrium stationary states (e.g., metastable states) and relaxation properties of many ubiquitous systems, asymptotic power-laws, as Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics yields, for the thermal equilibrium and relaxation properties of standard systems, exponential laws. Bibliography: http://tsallis.cat.cbpf.br/biblio.htm
Extreme event statistics of daily rainfall: dynamical systems approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cigdem Yalcin, G.; Rabassa, Pau; Beck, Christian
2016-04-01
We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q≈ 1.3. We discuss possible reasons for the emergence of this power law. In contrast, the waiting time distribution between rainy days is observed to follow a near-exponential distribution. A careful investigation shows that a q-exponential with q≈ 1.05 yields the best fit of the data. A Poisson process where the rate fluctuates slightly in a superstatistical way is discussed as a possible model for this. We discuss the extreme value statistics for extreme daily rainfall, which can potentially lead to flooding. This is described by Fréchet distributions as the corresponding distributions of the amount of daily rainfall decay with a power law. Looking at extreme event statistics of waiting times between rainy days (leading to droughts for very long dry periods) we obtain from the observed near-exponential decay of waiting times extreme event statistics close to Gumbel distributions. We discuss superstatistical dynamical systems as simple models in this context.
Dynamically strained ferroelastics: Statistical behavior in elastic and plastic regimes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ding, X.; Lookman, T.; Zhao, Z.; Saxena, A.; Sun, J.; Salje, E. K. H.
2013-03-01
The dynamic evolution in ferroelastic crystals under external shear is explored by computer simulation of a two-dimensional model. The characteristic geometrical patterns obtained during shear deformation include dynamic tweed in the elastic regime as well as interpenetrating needle domains in the plastic regime. As a result, the statistics of jerk energy differ in the elastic and plastic regimes. In the elastic regime the distributions of jerk energy are sensitive to temperature and initial configurations. However, in the plastic regime the jerk distributions are rather robust and do not depend much on the details of the configurations, although the geometrical pattern formed after yield is strongly influenced by the elastic constants of the materials and the configurations we used. Specifically, for all geometrical configurations we studied, the energy distribution of jerks shows a power-law noise pattern P(E)˜E-(γ-1)(γ-1=1.3-2) at low temperatures and a Vogel-Fulcher distribution P(E) ˜ exp-(E/E0) at high temperatures. More complex behavior occurs at the crossover between these two regimes where our simulated jerk distributions are very well described by a generalized Poisson distributions P(E)˜E-(γ-1) exp-(E/E0)n with n = 0.4-0.5 and γ-1 ≈ 0 (Kohlrausch law). The geometrical mechanisms for the evolution of the ferroelastic microstructure under strain deformation remain similar in all thermal regimes, whereas their thermodynamic behavior differs dramatically: on heating, from power-law statistics via the Kohlrausch law to a Vogel-Fulcher law. There is hence no simple way to predict the local evolution of the twin microstructure from just the observed statistical behavior of a ferroelastic crystal. It is shown that the Poisson distribution is a convenient way to describe the crossover behavior contained in all the experimental data without recourse to specific scaling functions or temperature-dependent cutoff lengths.
Moments of probable seas: statistical dynamics of Planet Ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holloway, Greg
The ocean is too big. From the scale of planetary radius to scales of turbulent microstructure, the range of length scales is 109. Likewise for time scales. Classical geophysical fluid dynamics does not have an apparatus for dealing with such complexity, while `brute force' computing on the most powerful supercomputers, extant or presently foreseen, barely scratches this complexity. Yet the everywhere-swirling-churning ocean interacts unpredictably in climate history and climate future - against which we attempt to devise planetary stewardship. Can we better take into account the unpredictability of oceans to improve upon present ocean/climate forecasting? What to do? First, recognize that our goal is to comprehend probabilities of possible oceans. Questions we would ask are posed as moments (expectations). Then the dynamical goal is clear: we seek equations of motion of moments of probable oceans. Classical fluid mechanics offers part of the answer but fails to recognize statistical dynamical aspects (missing the arrow of time as past==>future). At probabilities of oceans, the missing physics emerges: moments are forced by gradients of entropy with respect to moments. Time regains its arrow, and first (simplest) approximations to entropy-gradient forces enhance the fidelity of ocean theories and practical models.
Managing Performance Analysis with Dynamic Statistical Projection Pursuit
Vetter, J.S.; Reed, D.A.
2000-05-22
Computer systems and applications are growing more complex. Consequently, performance analysis has become more difficult due to the complex, transient interrelationships among runtime components. To diagnose these types of performance issues, developers must use detailed instrumentation to capture a large number of performance metrics. Unfortunately, this instrumentation may actually influence the performance analysis, leading the developer to an ambiguous conclusion. In this paper, we introduce a technique for focusing a performance analysis on interesting performance metrics. This technique, called dynamic statistical projection pursuit, identifies interesting performance metrics that the monitoring system should capture across some number of processors. By reducing the number of performance metrics, projection pursuit can limit the impact of instrumentation on the performance of the target system and can reduce the volume of performance data.
Forecasting: it is not about statistics, it is about dynamics.
Judd, Kevin; Stemler, Thomas
2010-01-13
In 1963, the mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz published a paper (Lorenz 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141) that changed the way scientists think about the prediction of geophysical systems, by introducing the ideas of chaos, attractors, sensitivity to initial conditions and the limitations to forecasting nonlinear systems. Three years earlier, the mathematician and engineer Rudolf Kalman had published a paper (Kalman 1960 Trans. ASME Ser. D, J. Basic Eng. 82, 35-45) that changed the way engineers thought about prediction of electronic and mechanical systems. Ironically, in recent years, geophysicists have become increasingly interested in Kalman filters, whereas engineers have become increasingly interested in chaos. It is argued that more often than not the tracking and forecasting of nonlinear systems has more to do with the nonlinear dynamics that Lorenz considered than it has to do with statistics that Kalman considered. A position with which both Lorenz and Kalman would appear to agree. PMID:19948555
Statistical work-energy theorems in deterministic dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Chang Sub
2015-07-01
We theoretically explore the Bochkov-Kuzovlev-Jarzynski-Crooks work theorems in a finite system subject to external control, which is coupled to a heat reservoir. We first elaborate the mechanical energy balance between the system and the surrounding reservoir and then proceed to formulate its statistical counterpart under the general nonequilibrium conditions. Consequently, a consistency condition is derived, underpinning the nonequilibrium equalities, both in the framework of the system-centric and nonautonomous Hamiltonian pictures, and its utility is examined in a few examples. Also, we elucidate that the symmetric fluctuation associated with forward and backward manipulation of the nonequilibrium work is contingent on time-reversal invariance of the underlying mesoscopic dynamics.
Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) research at USDA-ARS in Bushland, TX
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Producers in the Texas High Plains have recently adopted subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) at unprecedented rates in response to drought, declining water resources from the Ogallala Aquifer, and increasing energy costs to pump groundwater. However, SDI has much greater capital and maintenance require...
SDI Citation Checking as a Measure of the Performance of Library Document Delivery Systems.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bourne, Charles P.; Robinson, Jo.
Document delivery support for selective dissemination of information (SDI) services provided by the Center for Information Services, University of California at Los Angeles, was measured by the following: (1) Obtaining copies of all steady-state SDI searches from Biological Abstracts'"BA Previews" data base delivered to the University of…
Microform Informing: Use of DIALOG SDI to Produce a Microfiche Announcement Bulletin.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rowe, Gladys E.
1984-01-01
Describes use of selective dissemination of information (SDI) feature on DIALOG at Sandia Technical Library to produce bulletin announcing library acquisitions of technical reports in microfiche. Microfiche acquisition, developing profile, assembling profile output, costs, and suggestions for improvement are highlighted. Examples of SDI profiles…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Scheffler, F. L.; March, J. F.
The Aerospace Materials Information Center (AMIC) Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) program was evaluated by an interview technique after one year of operation. The data base for the SDI consists of the periodic document index records input to the AMIC system. The users are 63 engineers, scientists, and technical administrators at the…
Statistical light-mode dynamics of multipulse passive mode locking.
Weill, Rafi; Well, Rafi; Vodonos, Boris; Gordon, Ariel; Gat, Omri; Fischer, Baruch
2007-09-01
We study the multipulse formation in passive mode locking in the framework of the statistical light-mode dynamics theory. It is a many-body theory that treats the complex many-mode laser system by statistical mechanics. We give a detailed theory and experimental verification for the important case of multiple-pulse formation in the laser cavity. We follow and extend our former work on the subject. We give a detailed analysis with a rigorous calculation of the partition function, the free energy, and the order parameter in the coarse-graining method within the mean-field theory that is exact in the light-mode system. The outcome is a comprehensive picture of multipulse formation and annihilation, pulse after pulse, in an almost quantized manner, as the noise ("temperature") or the light power is varied. We obtain the phase diagram of the system, showing a series of first-order phase transitions, each belonging to a different number of pulses. We also study the hysteresis behavior, typical for such thermodynamic systems. We elaborate on the role of the saturable absorber structure in determining the multipulse formation. The theoretical results are compared to experimental measurements that we obtained with mode-locked fiber lasers, and we find an excellent agreement. PMID:17930204
OPEN PROBLEM: Orbits' statistics in chaotic dynamical systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arnold, V.
2008-07-01
This paper shows how the measurement of the stochasticity degree of a finite sequence of real numbers, published by Kolmogorov in Italian in a journal of insurances' statistics, can be usefully applied to measure the objective stochasticity degree of sequences, originating from dynamical systems theory and from number theory. Namely, whenever the value of Kolmogorov's stochasticity parameter of a given sequence of numbers is too small (or too big), one may conclude that the conjecture describing this sequence as a sample of independent values of a random variables is highly improbable. Kolmogorov used this strategy fighting (in a paper in 'Doklady', 1940) against Lysenko, who had tried to disprove the classical genetics' law of Mendel experimentally. Calculating his stochasticity parameter value for the numbers from Lysenko's experiment reports, Kolmogorov deduced, that, while these numbers were different from the exact fulfilment of Mendel's 3 : 1 law, any smaller deviation would be a manifestation of the report's number falsification. The calculation of the values of the stochasticity parameter would be useful for many other generators of pseudorandom numbers and for many other chaotically looking statistics, including even the prime numbers distribution (discussed in this paper as an example).
Vegetation patchiness: Pareto statistics, cluster dynamics and desertification.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shnerb, N. M.
2009-04-01
Recent studies [1-4] of cluster distribution of vegetation in the dryland revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern formation based on positive feedback. We show that this self-organized criticality is a manifestation of the law of proportion effec: mapping the stochastic model to a Markov birth-death process, the transition rates are shown to scale linearly with cluster size. This mapping provides a connection between patch statistics and the dynamics of the ecosystem; the "first passage time" for different colonies emerges as a powerful tool that discriminates between endogenous and exogenous clustering mechanisms. Imminent catastrophic shifts (like desertification) manifest themselves in a drastic change of the stability properties of spatial colonies, as the chance of a cluster to disappear depends logarithmically, rather than linearly, on its size. [1] Scanlon et. al., Nature 449, 209212 [2007]. [2] Kefi et. al., Nature 449, 213217 [2007]. [3] Sole R., Nature 449, p. 151 [2007]. [4] Vandermeer et. al., Nature 451, p. 457 [2008].
A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Feiveson, Alan H.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Paloski, William H.
2002-01-01
Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.
Statistical and dynamical remastering of classic exoplanet systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nelson, Benjamin Earl
The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. In this dissertation, I will review our efforts to improve the statistical analyses of radial velocity (RV) data and their applications to some renown, dynamically complex exoplanet system. In the first project (Chapters 2 and 4), we develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) algorithm to tackle the aforementioned difficult aspects of data analysis. We test the robustness of the algorithm in regards to the number of modeled planets (model dimensionality) and increasing dynamical strength. We apply RUN DMC to a couple classic multi-planet systems and one highly debated system from radial velocity surveys. In the second project (Chapter 5), we analyze RV data of 55 Cancri, a wide binary system known to harbor five planetary orbiting the primary. We find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet to enter the stellar photosphere through its periastron passage. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50+/-6 10 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. In the third project (Chapters 3, 4, 6), we analyze RV data of Gliese 876, a four planet system with three participating in a multi-body resonance, i.e. a Laplace resonance. From a combined observational and statistical analysis computing Bayes factors, we find a four-planet model is favored over one with three-planets. Conditioned on this preferred model, we meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital
Particle bed reactor central to SDI nuclear rocket project
Asker, J.R.
1991-04-01
A classified SDI project designated 'Timberwind' and funded with an estimated $7-8 billion over the project's life is charged with the development and flight testing of nuclear reactor-powered rockets. Timberwind's novel 'particle-bed reactor' technology will employ small pellets of reactor fuel to heat a low molecular weight working fluid, such as hydrogen. The fuel pellets would be 0.5 mm in diameter and may be composed of a kernel of fissionable U together with a carbon alloy, coated by layers of carbon and a sealant. A covering of zirconium carbide would prevent chemical degradation of the pellets by the hydrogen working fluid. Performace projection comparisons are conducted for Timberwind, an advanced Atlas-Centaur, and an advanced Titan launch vehicle.
A Statistical Model for In Vivo Neuronal Dynamics
Surace, Simone Carlo; Pfister, Jean-Pascal
2015-01-01
Single neuron models have a long tradition in computational neuroscience. Detailed biophysical models such as the Hodgkin-Huxley model as well as simplified neuron models such as the class of integrate-and-fire models relate the input current to the membrane potential of the neuron. Those types of models have been extensively fitted to in vitro data where the input current is controlled. Those models are however of little use when it comes to characterize intracellular in vivo recordings since the input to the neuron is not known. Here we propose a novel single neuron model that characterizes the statistical properties of in vivo recordings. More specifically, we propose a stochastic process where the subthreshold membrane potential follows a Gaussian process and the spike emission intensity depends nonlinearly on the membrane potential as well as the spiking history. We first show that the model has a rich dynamical repertoire since it can capture arbitrary subthreshold autocovariance functions, firing-rate adaptations as well as arbitrary shapes of the action potential. We then show that this model can be efficiently fitted to data without overfitting. We finally show that this model can be used to characterize and therefore precisely compare various intracellular in vivo recordings from different animals and experimental conditions. PMID:26571371
Modeling Insurgent Dynamics Including Heterogeneity. A Statistical Physics Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Johnson, Neil F.; Manrique, Pedro; Hui, Pak Ming
2013-05-01
Despite the myriad complexities inherent in human conflict, a common pattern has been identified across a wide range of modern insurgencies and terrorist campaigns involving the severity of individual events—namely an approximate power-law x - α with exponent α≈2.5. We recently proposed a simple toy model to explain this finding, built around the reported loose and transient nature of operational cells of insurgents or terrorists. Although it reproduces the 2.5 power-law, this toy model assumes every actor is identical. Here we generalize this toy model to incorporate individual heterogeneity while retaining the model's analytic solvability. In the case of kinship or team rules guiding the cell dynamics, we find that this 2.5 analytic result persists—however an interesting new phase transition emerges whereby this cell distribution undergoes a transition to a phase in which the individuals become isolated and hence all the cells have spontaneously disintegrated. Apart from extending our understanding of the empirical 2.5 result for insurgencies and terrorism, this work illustrates how other statistical physics models of human grouping might usefully be generalized in order to explore the effect of diverse human social, cultural or behavioral traits.
New Statistical Learning Methods for Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes
Zhao, Ying-Qi; Zeng, Donglin; Laber, Eric B.; Kosorok, Michael R.
2014-01-01
Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequential decision rules for individual patients that can adapt over time to an evolving illness. The goal is to accommodate heterogeneity among patients and find the DTR which will produce the best long term outcome if implemented. We introduce two new statistical learning methods for estimating the optimal DTR, termed backward outcome weighted learning (BOWL), and simultaneous outcome weighted learning (SOWL). These approaches convert individualized treatment selection into an either sequential or simultaneous classification problem, and can thus be applied by modifying existing machine learning techniques. The proposed methods are based on directly maximizing over all DTRs a nonparametric estimator of the expected long-term outcome; this is fundamentally different than regression-based methods, for example Q-learning, which indirectly attempt such maximization and rely heavily on the correctness of postulated regression models. We prove that the resulting rules are consistent, and provide finite sample bounds for the errors using the estimated rules. Simulation results suggest the proposed methods produce superior DTRs compared with Q-learning especially in small samples. We illustrate the methods using data from a clinical trial for smoking cessation. PMID:26236062
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.
1986-01-01
The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Potirakis, Stelios M.; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos
2013-07-01
The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. Several authors have suggested that earthquake dynamics and the dynamics of economic (financial) systems can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up with these different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy exists between a financial crisis (in the form of share or index price collapse) and a single earthquake. We also investigate the existence of such an analogy by means of scale-free statistics (the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of event sizes). We show that the populations of: (i) fracto-electromagnetic events rooted in the activation of a single fault, emerging prior to a significant earthquake, (ii) the trade volume events of different shares/economic indices, prior to a collapse, and (iii) the price fluctuation (considered as the difference of maximum minus minimum price within a day) events of different shares/economic indices, prior to a collapse, follow both the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar parameter values. The obtained results imply the existence of a dynamic analogy between earthquakes and economic crises, which moreover follow the dynamics of seizures, magnetic storms and solar flares.
Comparison of grain sorghum, soybean, and cotton production under spray, LEPA, and SDI
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Crop production was compared under subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), low energy precision applicators (LEPA), low elevation spray applicators (LESA), and mid elevation spray applicators (MESA) at the USDA-Agricultural Research Service Conservation and Production Research Laboratory, Bushland, Tex., ...
Dynamical instability and statistical behaviour of N-body systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cipriani, Piero; Di Bari, Maria
1998-12-01
, obtaining some new insights into known outcomes and also some new results The comparative analysis of the FPU chain and the gravitational N-body system allows us to suggest a new definition of strong stochasticity, for any DS. The generalization of the concept of dynamical time-scale, tD, is at the basis of this new criterion. We derive for both the mdf systems considered the ( N, ɛ)-dependence of tD (ɛ being the specific energy) of the system. In light of this, the results obtained (Cerruti-Sola and Pettini, 1995), indeed turn out to be reliable, the perplexity there raised originating from the neglected N-dependence of tD, and not to an excessive degree of approximation in the averaged equations used. This points out also the peculiarities of gravitationally bound systems, which are always in a regime of strong instability; the dimensionless quantity L1 = γ1 · tD [γ 1 is the maximal Lyapunov Characteristic Number (LCN)] being always positive and independent of ɛ, as it happens for the FPU chain only above the strong stochasticity threshold (SST). The numerical checks on the analytical estimates about the ( N, ɛ)-dependence of GDI's, allow us to single out their scaling laws, which support our claim that, for N ≫ 1, the probability of finding a negative value of Ricci curvature is practically negligible, always for the FPU chain, whereas in the case of the Gravitational N-body system, this is certainly true when the virial equilibrium has been attained. The strong stochasticity of the latter DS is clearly due to the large amplitude of curvature fluctuations. To prove the positivity of Ricci curvature, we need to discuss the pathologies of mathematical Newtonian interaction, which have some implications also on the ergodicity of the GDI's for this DS. We discuss the Statistical Mechanical properties of gravity, arguing how they are related to its long range nature rather than to its short scale divergencies. The N-scaling behaviour of the single terms entering the
Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches.
Eisenberg, Marisa C; Kujbida, Gregory; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Fisman, David N; Tien, Joseph H
2013-12-01
Haiti has been in the midst of a cholera epidemic since October 2010. Rainfall is thought to be associated with cholera here, but this relationship has only begun to be quantitatively examined. In this paper, we quantitatively examine the link between rainfall and cholera in Haiti for several different settings (including urban, rural, and displaced person camps) and spatial scales, using a combination of statistical and dynamic models. Statistical analysis of the lagged relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence was conducted using case crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models. Dynamic models consisted of compartmental differential equation models including direct (fast) and indirect (delayed) disease transmission, where indirect transmission was forced by empirical rainfall data. Data sources include cholera case and hospitalization time series from the Haitian Ministry of Public Health, the United Nations Water, Sanitation and Health Cluster, International Organization for Migration, and Hôpital Albert Schweitzer. Rainfall data was obtained from rain gauges from the U.S. Geological Survey and Haiti Regeneration Initiative, and remote sensing rainfall data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. A strong relationship between rainfall and cholera was found for all spatial scales and locations examined. Increased rainfall was significantly correlated with increased cholera incidence 4-7 days later. Forcing the dynamic models with rainfall data resulted in good fits to the cholera case data, and rainfall-based predictions from the dynamic models closely matched observed cholera cases. These models provide a tool for planning and managing the epidemic as it continues. PMID:24267876
Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.
Statistical Anomaly Detection for Monitoring of Human Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kamiya, K.; Fuse, T.
2015-05-01
Understanding of human dynamics has drawn attention to various areas. Due to the wide spread of positioning technologies that use GPS or public Wi-Fi, location information can be obtained with high spatial-temporal resolution as well as at low cost. By collecting set of individual location information in real time, monitoring of human dynamics is recently considered possible and is expected to lead to dynamic traffic control in the future. Although this monitoring focuses on detecting anomalous states of human dynamics, anomaly detection methods are developed ad hoc and not fully systematized. This research aims to define an anomaly detection problem of the human dynamics monitoring with gridded population data and develop an anomaly detection method based on the definition. According to the result of a review we have comprehensively conducted, we discussed the characteristics of the anomaly detection of human dynamics monitoring and categorized our problem to a semi-supervised anomaly detection problem that detects contextual anomalies behind time-series data. We developed an anomaly detection method based on a sticky HDP-HMM, which is able to estimate the number of hidden states according to input data. Results of the experiment with synthetic data showed that our proposed method has good fundamental performance with respect to the detection rate. Through the experiment with real gridded population data, an anomaly was detected when and where an actual social event had occurred.
Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Crooks, Gavin E.; Sivak, David A.
2011-06-01
Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen-Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence.
Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics
Crooks, Gavin; Sivak, David
2011-06-03
Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen-Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Renyi divergence.
SdiA Aids Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli Carriage by Cattle Fed a Forage or Grain Diet
Sheng, Haiqing; Nguyen, Y. N.
2013-01-01
Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) causes hemorrhagic colitis and life-threatening complications. The main reservoirs for EHEC are healthy ruminants. We reported that SdiA senses acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs) in the bovine rumen to activate expression of the glutamate acid resistance (gad) genes priming EHEC's acid resistance before they pass into the acidic abomasum. Conversely, SdiA represses expression of the locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE) genes, whose expression is not required for bacterial survival in the rumen but is necessary for efficient colonization at the rectoanal junction (RAJ) mucosa. Our previous studies show that SdiA-dependent regulation was necessary for efficient EHEC colonization of cattle fed a grain diet. Here, we compared the SdiA role in EHEC colonization of cattle fed a forage hay diet. We detected AHLs in the rumen of cattle fed a hay diet, and these AHLs activated gad gene expression in an SdiA-dependent manner. The rumen fluid and fecal samples from hay-fed cattle were near neutrality, while the same digesta samples from grain-fed animals were acidic. Cattle fed either grain or hay and challenged with EHEC orally carried the bacteria similarly. EHEC was cleared from the rumen within days and from the RAJ mucosa after approximately one month. In competition trials, where animals were challenged with both wild-type and SdiA deletion mutant bacteria, diet did not affect the outcome that the wild-type strain was better able to persist and colonize. However, the wild-type strain had a greater advantage over the SdiA deletion mutant at the RAJ mucosa among cattle fed the grain diet. PMID:23836826
Statistical analysis of nanoparticle dosing in a dynamic cellular system.
Summers, Huw D; Rees, Paul; Holton, Mark D; Brown, M Rowan; Chappell, Sally C; Smith, Paul J; Errington, Rachel J
2011-03-01
The delivery of nanoparticles into cells is important in therapeutic applications and in nanotoxicology. Nanoparticles are generally targeted to receptors on the surfaces of cells and internalized into endosomes by endocytosis, but the kinetics of the process and the way in which cell division redistributes the particles remain unclear. Here we show that the chance of success or failure of nanoparticle uptake and inheritance is random. Statistical analysis of nanoparticle-loaded endosomes indicates that particle capture is described by an over-dispersed Poisson probability distribution that is consistent with heterogeneous adsorption and internalization. Partitioning of nanoparticles in cell division is random and asymmetric, following a binomial distribution with mean probability of 0.52-0.72. These results show that cellular targeting of nanoparticles is inherently imprecise due to the randomness of nature at the molecular scale, and the statistical framework offers a way to predict nanoparticle dosage for therapy and for the study of nanotoxins. PMID:21258333
Statistical analysis of nanoparticle dosing in a dynamic cellular system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Summers, Huw D.; Rees, Paul; Holton, Mark D.; Rowan Brown, M.; Chappell, Sally C.; Smith, Paul J.; Errington, Rachel J.
2011-03-01
The delivery of nanoparticles into cells is important in therapeutic applications and in nanotoxicology. Nanoparticles are generally targeted to receptors on the surfaces of cells and internalized into endosomes by endocytosis, but the kinetics of the process and the way in which cell division redistributes the particles remain unclear. Here we show that the chance of success or failure of nanoparticle uptake and inheritance is random. Statistical analysis of nanoparticle-loaded endosomes indicates that particle capture is described by an over-dispersed Poisson probability distribution that is consistent with heterogeneous adsorption and internalization. Partitioning of nanoparticles in cell division is random and asymmetric, following a binomial distribution with mean probability of 0.52-0.72. These results show that cellular targeting of nanoparticles is inherently imprecise due to the randomness of nature at the molecular scale, and the statistical framework offers a way to predict nanoparticle dosage for therapy and for the study of nanotoxins.
Statistical analysis of modeling error in structural dynamic systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, J. D.
1990-01-01
The paper presents a generic statistical model of the (total) modeling error for conventional space structures in their launch configuration. Modeling error is defined as the difference between analytical prediction and experimental measurement. It is represented by the differences between predicted and measured real eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Comparisons are made between pre-test and post-test models. Total modeling error is then subdivided into measurement error, experimental error and 'pure' modeling error, and comparisons made between measurement error and total modeling error. The generic statistical model presented in this paper is based on the first four global (primary structure) modes of four different structures belonging to the generic category of Conventional Space Structures (specifically excluding large truss-type space structures). As such, it may be used to evaluate the uncertainty of predicted mode shapes and frequencies, sinusoidal response, or the transient response of other structures belonging to the same generic category.
New Dynamical-Statistical Techniques for Wind Power Prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stathopoulos, C.; Kaperoni, A.; Galanis, G.; Kallos, G.
2012-04-01
The increased use of renewable energy sources, and especially of wind power, has revealed the significance of accurate environmental and wind power predictions over wind farms that critically affect the integration of the produced power in the general grid. This issue is studied in the present paper by means of high resolution physical and statistical models. Two numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems namely SKIRON and RAMS are used to simulate the flow characteristics in selected wind farms in Greece. The NWP model output is post-processed by utilizing Kalman and Kolmogorov statistics in order to remove systematic errors. Modeled wind predictions in combination with available on-site observations are used for estimation of the wind power potential by utilizing a variety of statistical power prediction models based on non-linear and hyperbolic functions. The obtained results reveal the strong dependence of the forecasts uncertainty on the wind variation, the limited influence of previously recorded power values and the advantages that nonlinear - non polynomial functions could have in the successful control of power curve characteristics. This methodology is developed at the framework of the FP7 projects WAUDIT and MARINA PLATFORM.
Development and Evaluation of a Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling Method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walton, Daniel Burton
Regional climate change studies usually rely on downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output in order to resolve important fine-scale features and processes that govern local climate. Previous efforts have used one of two techniques: (1) dynamical downscaling, in which a regional climate model is forced at the boundaries by GCM output, or (2) statistical downscaling, which employs historical empirical relationships to go from coarse to fine resolution. Studies using these methods have been criticized because they either dynamical downscaled only a few GCMs, or used statistical downscaling on an ensemble of GCMs, but missed important dynamical effects in the climate change signal. This study describes the development and evaluation of a hybrid dynamical-statstical downscaling method that utilizes aspects of both dynamical and statistical downscaling to address these concerns. The first step of the hybrid method is to use dynamical downscaling to understand the most important physical processes that contribute to the climate change signal in the region of interest. Then a statistical model is built based on the patterns and relationships identified from dynamical downscaling. This statistical model can be used to downscale an entire ensemble of GCMs quickly and efficiently. The hybrid method is first applied to a domain covering Los Angeles Region to generate projections of temperature change between the 2041-2060 and 1981-2000 periods for 32 CMIP5 GCMs. The hybrid method is also applied to a larger region covering all of California and the adjacent ocean. The hybrid method works well in both areas, primarily because a single feature, the land-sea contrast in the warming, controls the overwhelming majority of the spatial detail. Finally, the dynamically downscaled temperature change patterns are compared to those produced by two commonly-used statistical methods, BCSD and BCCA. Results show that dynamical downscaling recovers important spatial features that the
Identification of sdiA-regulated genes in a mouse commensal strain of Enterobacter cloacae
Sabag-Daigle, Anice; Dyszel, Jessica L.; Gonzalez, Juan F.; Ali, Mohamed M.; Ahmer, Brian M. M.
2015-01-01
Many bacteria determine their population density using quorum sensing. The most intensively studied mechanism of quorum sensing utilizes proteins of the LuxI family to synthesize a signaling molecule of the acylhomoserine lactone (AHL) type, and a protein of the LuxR family to bind AHL and regulate transcription. Genes regulated by quorum sensing often encode functions that are most effective when a group of bacteria are working cooperatively (e.g., luminescence, biofilm formation, host interactions). Bacteria in the Escherichia, Salmonella, Klebsiella, and Enterobacter genera do not encode an AHL synthase but they do encode an AHL receptor of the LuxR family, SdiA. Instead of detecting their own AHL synthesis, these organisms use SdiA to detect the AHLs synthesized by other bacterial species. In this study, we used a genetic screen to identify AHL-responsive genes in a commensal Enterobacter cloacae strain that was isolated from a laboratory mouse. The genes include a putative type VI secretion system, copA (a copper transporter), and fepE (extends O-antigen chain length). A new transposon mutagenesis strategy and suicide vectors were used to construct an sdiA mutant of E. cloacae. The AHL-responsiveness of all fusions was entirely sdiA-dependent, although some genes were regulated by sdiA in the absence of AHL. PMID:26075189
Lars Onsager Prize Lecture: Statistical Dynamics of Disordered Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fisher, Daniel S.
2013-03-01
The properties of many systems are strongly affected by quenched disorder that arose from their past history but is frozen on the time scales of interest. Although equilibrium phases and phase transitions in disordered materials can be very different from their counterparts in pure systems, the most striking phenomena involve non-equilibrium dynamics. The state of understanding of some of these will be reviewed including approach to equilibrium in spin glasses and the onset of motion in driven systems such as vortices in superconductors or earthquakes on geological faults. The potential for developing understanding of short-term evolutionary dynamics of microbial populations by taking advantage of the randomness of their past histories and the biological complexities will be discussed briefly.
Chandrasekhar's dynamical friction and non-extensive statistics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Silva, J. M.; Lima, J. A. S.; de Souza, R. E.; Del Popolo, A.; Le Delliou, Morgan; Lee, Xi-Guo
2016-05-01
The motion of a point like object of mass M passing through the background potential of massive collisionless particles (m ll M) suffers a steady deceleration named dynamical friction. In his classical work, Chandrasekhar assumed a Maxwellian velocity distribution in the halo and neglected the self gravity of the wake induced by the gravitational focusing of the mass M. In this paper, by relaxing the validity of the Maxwellian distribution due to the presence of long range forces, we derive an analytical formula for the dynamical friction in the context of the q-nonextensive kinetic theory. In the extensive limiting case (q = 1), the classical Gaussian Chandrasekhar result is recovered. As an application, the dynamical friction timescale for Globular Clusters spiraling to the galactic center is explicitly obtained. Our results suggest that the problem concerning the large timescale as derived by numerical N-body simulations or semi-analytical models can be understood as a departure from the standard extensive Maxwellian regime as measured by the Tsallis nonextensive q-parameter.
Eddies in the Red Sea: A statistical and dynamical study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhan, Peng; Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2014-06-01
Sea level anomaly (SLA) data spanning 1992-2012 were analyzed to study the statistical properties of eddies in the Red Sea. An algorithm that identifies winding angles was employed to detect 4998 eddies propagating along 938 unique eddy tracks. Statistics suggest that eddies are generated across the entire Red Sea but that they are prevalent in certain regions. A high number of eddies is found in the central basin between 18°N and 24°N. More than 87% of the detected eddies have a radius ranging from 50 to 135 km. Both the intensity and relative vorticity scale of these eddies decrease as the eddy radii increase. The averaged eddy lifespan is approximately 6 weeks. AEs and cyclonic eddies (CEs) have different deformation features, and those with stronger intensities are less deformed and more circular. Analysis of long-lived eddies suggests that they are likely to appear in the central basin with AEs tending to move northward. In addition, their eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases gradually throughout their lifespans. The annual cycles of CEs and AEs differ, although both exhibit significant seasonal cycles of intensity with the winter and summer peaks appearing in February and August, respectively. The seasonal cycle of EKE is negatively correlated with stratification but positively correlated with vertical shear of horizontal velocity and eddy growth rate, suggesting that the generation of baroclinic instability is responsible for the activities of eddies in the Red Sea.
An Examination of Statistical Power in Multigroup Dynamic Structural Equation Models
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Prindle, John J.; McArdle, John J.
2012-01-01
This study used statistical simulation to calculate differential statistical power in dynamic structural equation models with groups (as in McArdle & Prindle, 2008). Patterns of between-group differences were simulated to provide insight into how model parameters influence power approximations. Chi-square and root mean square error of…
Do You Need to See It to Believe It? Let's See Statistics and Geometry Dynamically Together!
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Martins, José Alexandre; Roca, Assumpta Estrada; Nascimento, Maria Manuel
2014-01-01
Statistical graphs, measures of central tendency and measures of spread are key concepts in the statistics curriculum, so we present here a dynamic method (software) that may be used in the classroom. In this work we begin with an introductory approach. This is done to emphasize the importance of stimulating the visualization of statistical…
Statistical characterization of spatiotemporal sediment dynamics in the Venice lagoon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carniello, Luca; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Botter, Gianluca; Rinaldo, Andrea
2016-05-01
Characterizing the dynamics of suspended sediment is crucial when investigating the long-term evolution of tidal landscapes. Here we apply a widely tested mathematical model which describes the dynamics of cohesive and noncohesive sediments, driven by the combined effect of tidal currents and wind waves, using 1 year long time series of observed water levels and wind data from the Venice lagoon. The spatiotemporal evolution of the computed suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is analyzed on the basis of the "peak over threshold" theory. Our analysis suggests that events characterized by high SSC can be modeled as a marked Poisson process over most of the lagoon. The interarrival time between two consecutive over threshold events, the intensity of peak excesses, and the duration are found to be exponentially distributed random variables over most of tidal flats. Our study suggests that intensity and duration of over threshold events are temporally correlated, while almost no correlation exists between interarrival times and both durations and intensities. The benthic vegetation colonizing the central southern part of the Venice lagoon is found to exert a crucial role on sediment dynamics: vegetation locally decreases the frequency of significant resuspension events by affecting spatiotemporal patterns of SSCs also in adjacent areas. Spatial patterns of the mean interarrival of over threshold SSC events are found to be less heterogeneous than the corresponding patterns of mean interarrivals of over threshold bottom shear stress events because of the role of advection/dispersion processes in mixing suspended sediments within the lagoon. Implications for long-term morphodynamic modeling of tidal environments are discussed.
Statistical methodologies for the control of dynamic remapping
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Saltz, J. H.; Nicol, D. M.
1986-01-01
Following an initial mapping of a problem onto a multiprocessor machine or computer network, system performance often deteriorates with time. In order to maintain high performance, it may be necessary to remap the problem. The decision to remap must take into account measurements of performance deterioration, the cost of remapping, and the estimated benefits achieved by remapping. We examine the tradeoff between the costs and the benefits of remapping two qualitatively different kinds of problems. One problem assumes that performance deteriorates gradually, the other assumes that performance deteriorates suddenly. We consider a variety of policies for governing when to remap. In order to evaluate these policies, statistical models of problem behaviors are developed. Simulation results are presented which compare simple policies with computationally expensive optimal decision policies; these results demonstrate that for each problem type, the proposed simple policies are effective and robust.
Dynamic Modelling and Statistical Analysis of Event Times
Peña, Edsel A.
2006-01-01
This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modelling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedical, and other areas. Recurrent event modelling possesses unique facets making it different and more difficult to handle than single event settings. For instance, the impact of an increasing number of event occurrences needs to be taken into account, the effects of covariates should be considered, potential association among the inter-event times within a unit cannot be ignored, and the effects of performed interventions after each event occurrence need to be factored in. A recent general class of models for recurrent events which simultaneously accommodates these aspects is described. Statistical inference methods for this class of models are presented and illustrated through applications to real data sets. Some existing open research problems are described. PMID:17906740
Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions - Dynamics of synaptic modification
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ingber, L.
1983-01-01
A recent study has demonstrated that several scales of neocortical interactions can be consistently analyzed with the use of methods of modern nonlinear nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The formation, stability, and interaction of spatial-temporal patterns of columnar firings are explicitly calculated, to test hypothesized mechanisms relating to information processing. In this context, most probable patterns of columnar firings are associated with chemical and electrical synaptic modifications. It is stressed that synaptic modifications and shifts in most-probable firing patterns are highly nonlinear and interactive sets of phenomena. A detailed scenario of information processing is calculated of columnar coding of external stimuli, short-term storage via hysteresis, and long-term storage via synaptic modification.
Introduction to Focus Issue: Statistical mechanics and billiard-type dynamical systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Leonel, Edson D.; Beims, Marcus W.; Bunimovich, Leonid A.
2012-06-01
Dynamical systems of the billiard type are of fundamental importance for the description of numerous phenomena observed in many different fields of research, including statistical mechanics, Hamiltonian dynamics, nonlinear physics, and many others. This Focus Issue presents the recent progress in this area with contributions from the mathematical as well as physical stand point.
Human turnover dynamics during sleep: Statistical behavior and its modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoneyama, Mitsuru; Okuma, Yasuyuki; Utsumi, Hiroya; Terashi, Hiroo; Mitoma, Hiroshi
2014-03-01
Turnover is a typical intermittent body movement while asleep. Exploring its behavior may provide insights into the mechanisms and management of sleep. However, little is understood about the dynamic nature of turnover in healthy humans and how it can be modified in disease. Here we present a detailed analysis of turnover signals that are collected by accelerometry from healthy elderly subjects and age-matched patients with neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's disease. In healthy subjects, the time intervals between consecutive turnover events exhibit a well-separated bimodal distribution with one mode at ⩽10 s and the other at ⩾100 s, whereas such bimodality tends to disappear in neurodegenerative patients. The discovery of bimodality and fine temporal structures (⩽10 s) is a contribution that is not revealed by conventional sleep recordings with less time resolution (≈30 s). Moreover, we estimate the scaling exponent of the interval fluctuations, which also shows a clear difference between healthy subjects and patients. We incorporate these experimental results into a computational model of human decision making. A decision is to be made at each simulation step between two choices: to keep on sleeping or to make a turnover, the selection of which is determined dynamically by comparing a pair of random numbers assigned to each choice. This decision is weighted by a single parameter that reflects the depth of sleep. The resulting simulated behavior accurately replicates many aspects of observed turnover patterns, including the appearance or disappearance of bimodality and leads to several predictions, suggesting that the depth parameter may be useful as a quantitative measure for differentiating between normal and pathological sleep. These findings have significant clinical implications and may pave the way for the development of practical sleep assessment technologies.
Statistical precision and sensitivity of measures of dynamic gait stability.
Bruijn, Sjoerd M; van Dieën, Jaap H; Meijer, Onno G; Beek, Peter J
2009-04-15
Recently, two methods for quantifying a system's dynamic stability have been applied to human locomotion: local stability (quantified by finite time maximum Lyapunov exponents, lambda(S-stride) and lambda(L-stride)) and orbital stability (quantified as maximum Floquet multipliers, MaxFm). Thus far, however, it has remained unclear how many data points are required to obtain precise estimates of these measures during walking, and to what extent these estimates are sensitive to changes in walking behaviour. To resolve these issues, we collected long data series of healthy subjects (n=9) walking on a treadmill in three conditions (normal walking at 0.83 m/s (3 km/h) and 1.38 m/s (5 km/h), and walking at 1.38 m/s (5 km/h) while performing a Stroop dual task). Data series from 0.83 and 1.38 m/s trials were submitted to a bootstrap procedure and paired t-tests for samples of different data series lengths were performed between 0.83 and 1.38 m/s and between 1.38 m/s with and without Stroop task. Longer data series led to more precise estimates for lambda(S-stride), lambda(L-stride), and MaxFm. All variables showed an effect of data series length. Thus, when estimating and comparing these variables across conditions, data series covering an equal number of strides should be analysed. lambda(S-stride), lambda(L-stride), and MaxFm were sensitive to the change in walking speed while only lambda(S-stride) and MaxFm were sensitive enough to capture the modulations of walking induced by the Stroop task. Still, these modulations could only be detected when using a substantial number of strides (>150). PMID:19135478
Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke
2016-04-01
the Alfred Wegener Institute a purely statistical scheme to generate streamflow forecasts for several months ahead. Instead of directly using teleconnection indices (e.g. NAO, AO) the idea is to identify regions with stable teleconnections between different global climate information (e.g. sea surface temperature, geopotential height etc.) and streamflow at different gauges relevant for inland waterway transport. So-called stability (correlation) maps are generated showing regions where streamflow and climate variable from previous months are significantly correlated in a 21 (31) years moving window. Finally, the optimal forecast model is established based on a multiple regression analysis of the stable predictors. We will present current results of the aforementioned approaches with focus on the River Rhine (being one of the world's most frequented waterways and the backbone of the European inland waterway network) and the Elbe River. Overall, our analysis reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of the low flows at monthly and seasonal time scales, a result that may be useful to water resources management. Given that all predictors used in the models are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used operationally to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming low flows.
Statistical Physics Approaches to Respiratory Dynamics and Lung Structure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suki, Bela
2004-03-01
The lung consists of a branching airway tree embedded in viscoelastic tissue and provides life-sustaining gas exchange to the body. In diseases, its structure is damaged and its function is compromised. We review two recent works about lung structure and dynamics and how they change in disease. 1) We introduced a new acoustic imaging approach to study airway structure. When airways in a collapsed lung are inflated, they pop open in avalanches. A single opening emits a sound package called crackle consisting of an initial spike (s) followed by ringing. The distribution n(s) of s follows a power law and the exponent of n(s) can be used to calculate the diameter ratio d defined as the ratio of the diameters of an airway to that of its parent averaged over all bifurcations. To test this method, we measured crackles in dogs, rabbits, rats and mice by inflating collapsed isolated lungs with air or helium while recording crackles with a microphone. In each species, n(s) follows a power law with an exponent that depends on species, but not on gas in agreement with theory. Values of d from crackles compare well with those calculated from morphometric data suggesting that this approach is suitable to study airway structure in disease. 2) Using novel experiments and computer models, we studied pulmonary emphysema which is caused by cigarette smoking. In emphysema, the elastic protein fibers of the tissue are actively remodeled by lung cells due to the chemicals present in smoke. We measured the mechanical properties of tissue sheets from normal and emphysematous lungs and imaged its structure which appears as a heterogeneous hexagonal network of fibers. We found evidence that during uniaxial stretching, the collagen and elastin fibers in emphysematous tissue can fail at a critical stress generating holes of various sizes (h). We developed network models of the failure process. When the failure is governed by mechanical forces, the distribution n(h) of h is a power law which
Near-surface soil water and temperature for SDI, LEPA, and spray irrigation
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Near-surface soil temperatures and volumetric soil water contents were compared for SDI, LEPA, and spray irrigation in a Pullman clay loam soil planted in cotton. Soil temperatures were measured by type-T thermocouples and volumetric water contents were measured by time domain reflectometry (TDR) in...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
DOWNIE, CURRIE S.; HOSHOVSKY, ALEXANDER G.
AN OVERVIEW OF THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL SYSTEMS ESTABLISHED FOR THE SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION (SDI) IS PRESENTED. AN ATTEMPT HAS ALSO BEEN MADE TO IDENTIFY THE TRENDS WHICH MAY SHAPE THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION PROCEDURES. THE REPORT IS BASED IN PART ON THE EXISTING SDI…
Social Development in Hong Kong: Development Issues Identified by Social Development Index (SDI)
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chua, Hoi-wai; Wong, Anthony K. W.; Shek, Daniel T. L.
2010-01-01
Surviving the aftermaths of the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS in 2003, Hong Kong's economy has re-gained its momentum and its economic growth has been quite remarkable too in recent few years. Nevertheless, as reflected by the Social Development Index (SDI), economic growth in Hong Kong does not seem to have benefited the people of the city at…
Measuring dynamical randomness of quantum chaos by statistics of Schmidt eigenvalues.
Kubotani, Hiroto; Adachi, Satoshi; Toda, Mikito
2013-06-01
We study statistics of entanglement generated by quantum chaotic dynamics. Using an ensemble of the very large number (>/~10(7)) of quantum states obtained from the temporally evolving coupled kicked tops, we verify that the estimated one-body distribution of the squared Schmidt eigenvalues for the quantum chaotic dynamics can agree surprisingly well with the analytical one for the universality class of the random matrices described by the fixed trace ensemble (FTE). In order to quantify this agreement, we introduce the L(1) norm of the difference between the one-body distributions for the quantum chaos and FTE and use it as an indicator of the dynamical randomness. As we increase the scaled coupling constant, the L(1) difference decreases. When the effective Planck constant is not small enough, the decrease saturates, which implies quantum suppression of dynamical randomness. On the other hand, when the effective Planck constant is small enough, the decrease of the L(1) difference continues until it is masked by statistical fluctuation due to finiteness of the ensemble. Furthermore, we carry out two statistical analyses, the χ(2) goodness of fit test and an autocorrelation analysis, on the difference between the distributions to seek for dynamical remnants buried under the statistical fluctuation. We observe that almost all fluctuating deviations are statistical. However, even for well-developed quantum chaos, unexpectedly, we find a slight nonstatistical deviation near the largest Schmidt eigenvalue. In this way, the statistics of Schmidt eigenvalues enables us to measure dynamical randomness of quantum chaos with reference to the random matrix theory of FTE. PMID:23848762
Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.
2005-06-01
Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb
Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J
2013-08-20
A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra. PMID:23918398
Nguyen, Y.; Nguyen, Nam X.; Rogers, Jamie L.; Liao, Jun; MacMillan, John B.; Jiang, Youxing; Sperandio, Vanessa
2015-05-19
Bacteria engage in chemical signaling, termed quorum sensing (QS), to mediate intercellular communication, mimicking multicellular organisms. The LuxR family of QS transcription factors regulates gene expression, coordinating population behavior by sensing endogenous acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs). However, some bacteria (such as Escherichia coli) do not produce AHLs. These LuxR orphans sense exogenous AHLs but also regulate transcription in the absence of AHLs. Importantly, this AHL-independent regulatory mechanism is still largely unknown. Here we present several structures of one such orphan LuxR-type protein, SdiA, from enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), in the presence and absence of AHL. SdiA is actually not inmore » an apo state without AHL but is regulated by a previously unknown endogenous ligand, 1-octanoyl-rac-glycerol (OCL), which is ubiquitously found throughout the tree of life and serves as an energy source, signaling molecule, and substrate for membrane biogenesis. While exogenous AHL renders to SdiA higher stability and DNA binding affinity, OCL may function as a chemical chaperone placeholder that stabilizes SdiA, allowing for basal activity. Structural comparison between SdiA-AHL and SdiA-OCL complexes provides crucial mechanistic insights into the ligand regulation of AHL-dependent and -independent function of LuxR-type proteins. Importantly, in addition to its contribution to basic science, this work has implications for public health, inasmuch as the SdiA signaling system aids the deadly human pathogen EHEC to adapt to a commensal lifestyle in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle, its main reservoir. These studies open exciting and novel avenues to control shedding of this human pathogen in the environment. IMPORTANCE Quorum sensing refers to bacterial chemical signaling. The QS acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) signals are recognized by LuxR-type receptors that regulate gene transcription. However, some bacteria have orphan Lux
Nguyen, Y.; Nguyen, Nam X.; Rogers, Jamie L.; Liao, Jun; MacMillan, John B.; Jiang, Youxing; Sperandio, Vanessa
2015-05-19
Bacteria engage in chemical signaling, termed quorum sensing (QS), to mediate intercellular communication, mimicking multicellular organisms. The LuxR family of QS transcription factors regulates gene expression, coordinating population behavior by sensing endogenous acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs). However, some bacteria (such as Escherichia coli) do not produce AHLs. These LuxR orphans sense exogenous AHLs but also regulate transcription in the absence of AHLs. Importantly, this AHL-independent regulatory mechanism is still largely unknown. Here we present several structures of one such orphan LuxR-type protein, SdiA, from enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), in the presence and absence of AHL. SdiA is actually not in an apo state without AHL but is regulated by a previously unknown endogenous ligand, 1-octanoyl-rac-glycerol (OCL), which is ubiquitously found throughout the tree of life and serves as an energy source, signaling molecule, and substrate for membrane biogenesis. While exogenous AHL renders to SdiA higher stability and DNA binding affinity, OCL may function as a chemical chaperone placeholder that stabilizes SdiA, allowing for basal activity. Structural comparison between SdiA-AHL and SdiA-OCL complexes provides crucial mechanistic insights into the ligand regulation of AHL-dependent and -independent function of LuxR-type proteins. Importantly, in addition to its contribution to basic science, this work has implications for public health, inasmuch as the SdiA signaling system aids the deadly human pathogen EHEC to adapt to a commensal lifestyle in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle, its main reservoir. These studies open exciting and novel avenues to control shedding of this human pathogen in the environment. IMPORTANCE Quorum sensing refers to bacterial chemical signaling. The QS acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) signals are recognized by LuxR-type receptors that regulate gene transcription. However, some bacteria have orphan LuxR-type receptors and
Enriching Spatial Data Infrastructure (sdi) by User Generated Contents for Transportation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shakeri, M.; Alimohammadi, A.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.; Alesheikh, A. A.
2013-09-01
Spatial data is one of the most critical elements underpinning decision making for many disciplines. Accessing and sharing spatial data have always been a great struggle for researchers. Spatial data infrastructure (SDI) plays a key role in spatial data sharing by building a suitable platform for collaboration and cooperation among the different data producer organizations. In recent years, SDI vision has been moved toward a user-centric platform which has led to development of a new and enriched generation of SDI (third generation). This vision is to provide an environment where users can cooperate to handle spatial data in an effective and satisfactory way. User-centric SDI concentrates on users, their requirements and preferences while in the past, SDI initiatives were mainly concentrated on technological issues such as the data harmonization, standardized metadata models, standardized web services for data discovery, visualization and download. On the other hand, new technologies such as the GPS-equipped smart phones, navigation devices and Web 2.0 technologies have enabled citizens to actively participate in production and sharing of the spatial information. This has led to emergence of the new phenomenon called the Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI). VGI describes any type of content that has a geographic element which has been voluntarily collected. However, its distinctive element is the geographic information that can be collected and produced by citizens with different formal expertise and knowledge of the spatial or geographical concepts. Therefore, ordinary citizens can cooperate in providing massive sources of information that cannot be ignored. These can be considered as the valuable spatial information sources in SDI. These sources can be used for completing, improving and updating of the existing databases. Spatial information and technologies are an important part of the transportation systems. Planning, design and operation of the
Statistical and dynamical assessment of vegetation feedbacks on climate over the boreal forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu
2008-11-01
Vegetation feedbacks over Asiatic Russia are assessed through a combined statistical and dynamical approach in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model, FOAM-LPJ. The dynamical assessment is comprised of initial value ensemble experiments in which the forest cover fraction is initially reduced over Asiatic Russia, replaced by grass cover, and then the climatic response is determined. The statistical feedback approach, adopted from previous studies of ocean-atmosphere interactions, is applied to compute the feedback of forest cover on subsequent temperature and precipitation in the control simulation. Both methodologies indicate a year-round positive feedback on temperature and precipitation, strongest in spring and moderately substantial in summer. Reduced boreal forest cover enhances the surface albedo, leading to an extended snow season, lower air temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and enhanced low cloud cover. Changes in the hydrological cycle include diminished transpiration and moisture recycling, supporting a reduction in precipitation. The close agreement in sign and magnitude between the statistical and dynamical feedback assessments testifies to the reliability of the statistical approach. An additional statistical analysis of monthly vegetation feedbacks over Asiatic Russia reveals a robust positive feedback on air temperature of similar quantitative strength in two coupled models, FOAM-LPJ and CAM3-CLM3, and the observational record.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Q. J.
2015-03-01
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology produces statistical and dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasts. The statistical and dynamic forecasts are similarly reliable in ensemble spread; however, skill varies by catchment and season. Therefore, it may be possible to optimize forecasting skill by weighting and merging statistical and dynamic forecasts. Two model averaging methods are evaluated for merging forecasts for 12 locations. The first method, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), applies averaging to forecast probability densities (and thus cumulative probabilities) for a given forecast variable value. The second method, quantile model averaging (QMA), applies averaging to forecast variable values (quantiles) for a given cumulative probability (quantile fraction). BMA and QMA are found to perform similarly in terms of overall skill scores and reliability in ensemble spread. Both methods improve forecast skill across catchments and seasons. However, when both the statistical and dynamical forecasting approaches are skillful but produce, on special occasions, very different event forecasts, the BMA merged forecasts for these events can have unusually wide and bimodal distributions. In contrast, the distributions of the QMA merged forecasts for these events are narrower, unimodal and generally more smoothly shaped, and are potentially more easily communicated to and interpreted by the forecast users. Such special occasions are found to be rare. However, every forecast counts in an operational service, and therefore the occasional contrast in merged forecasts between the two methods may be more significant than the indifference shown by the overall skill and reliability performance.
Shiraishi, Hideaki; Stufflebeam, Steven M; Knake, Susanne; Ahlfors, Seppo P; Sudo, Akira; Asahina, Naoko; Egawa, Kiyoshi; Hatanaka, Keisaku; Kohsaka, Shinobu; Saitoh, Shinji; Grant, P Ellen; Dale, Anders M; Halgren, Eric
2005-04-01
Our current purpose is to evaluate the applicability of dynamic statistical parametric mapping, a novel method for localizing epileptiform activity recorded with magnetoencephalography in patients with epilepsy. We report four pediatric patients with focal epilepsies. Magnetoencephalographic data were collected with a 306-channel whole-head helmet-shaped sensor array. We calculated equivalent current dipoles and dynamic statistical parametric mapping movies of the interictal epileptiform discharges that were based in the minimum-L2 norm estimate, minimizing the square sum of the dipole element amplitudes. The dynamic statistical parametric mapping analysis of interictal epileptiform discharges can demonstrate the rapid change and propagation of interical epileptiform discharges. According to these findings, specific epileptogenic lesion-focal cortical dysplasia could be found and patients could be operated on successfully. The presurgical analysis of interictal epileptiform discharges using dynamic statistical parametric mapping seems to be promising in patients with a possible underlying focal cortical dysplasia and might help to guide the placement of invasive electrodes. PMID:15921240
Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.
2011-01-01
In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.
Dynamical and statistical description of multifragmentation in heavy-ion collisions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mao, Lihua; Wang, Ning; Ou, Li
2015-04-01
To explore the roles of the dynamical model and statistical model in the description of multifragmentation in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies, the fragments charge distributions of 197Au+197Au at 35 MeV/u are analyzed by using the hybrid model of improved quantum molecular dynamics (ImQMD) model plus the statistical model GEMINI. We find that, the ImQMD model can well describe the charge distributions of fragments produced in central and semicentral collisions. But for the peripheral collisions of Au+Au at 35 MeV/u, the statistical model is required at the end of the ImQMD simulations for the better description of the charge distribution of fragments. By using the hybrid model of ImQMD+GEMINI, the fragment charge distribution of Au+Au at 35 MeV/u can be reproduced reasonably well. The time evolution of the excitation energies of primary fragments is simultaneously investigated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chaikov, Leonid L.; Kirichenko, Marina N.; Krivokhizha, Svetlana V.; Zaritskiy, Alexander R.
2015-05-01
The work is devoted to the study of sizes and concentrations of proteins, and their aggregates in blood plasma samples, using static and dynamic light scattering methods. A new approach is proposed based on multiple repetition of measurements of intensity size distribution and on counting the number of registrations of different sizes, which made it possible to obtain statistically confident particle sizes and concentrations in the blood plasma. It was revealed that statistically confident particle sizes in the blood plasma were stable during 30 h of observations, whereas the concentrations of particles of different sizes varied as a result of redistribution of material between them owing to the protein degradation processes.
Yakhnin, Helen; Baker, Carol S.; Berezin, Igor; Evangelista, Michael A.; Rassin, Alisa; Romeo, Tony; Babitzke, Paul
2011-01-01
The RNA binding protein CsrA is the central component of a conserved global regulatory system that activates or represses gene expression posttranscriptionally. In every known example of CsrA-mediated translational control, CsrA binds to the 5′ untranslated region of target transcripts, thereby repressing translation initiation and/or altering the stability of the RNA. Furthermore, with few exceptions, repression by CsrA involves binding directly to the Shine-Dalgarno sequence and blocking ribosome binding. sdiA encodes the quorum-sensing receptor for N-acyl-l-homoserine lactone in Escherichia coli. Because sdiA indirectly stimulates transcription of csrB, which encodes a small RNA (sRNA) antagonist of CsrA, we further explored the relationship between sdiA and the Csr system. Primer extension analysis revealed four putative transcription start sites within 85 nucleotides of the sdiA initiation codon. Potential σ70-dependent promoters were identified for each of these primer extension products. In addition, two CsrA binding sites were predicted in the initially translated region of sdiA. Expression of chromosomally integrated sdiA′-′lacZ translational fusions containing the entire promoter and CsrA binding site regions indicates that CsrA represses sdiA expression. The results from gel shift and footprint studies demonstrate that tight binding of CsrA requires both of these sites. Furthermore, the results from toeprint and in vitro translation experiments indicate that CsrA represses translation of sdiA by directly competing with 30S ribosomal subunit binding. Thus, this represents the first example of CsrA preventing translation by interacting solely within the coding region of an mRNA target. PMID:21908661
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koparan, Timur
2016-02-01
In this study, the effect on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teachers is examined. With this aim ahead, achievement test, attitude scale for statistics and interviews were used as data collection tools. The achievement test comprises 8 problems based on statistical data, and the attitude scale comprises 13 Likert-type items. The study was carried out in 2014-2015 academic year fall semester at a university in Turkey. The study, which employed the pre-test-post-test control group design of quasi-experimental research method, was carried out on a group of 80 prospective teachers, 40 in the control group and 40 in the experimental group. Both groups had four-hour classes about descriptive statistics. The classes with the control group were carried out through traditional methods while dynamic statistics software was used in the experimental group. Five prospective teachers from the experimental group were interviewed clinically after the application for a deeper examination of their views about application. Qualitative data gained are presented under various themes. At the end of the study, it was found that there is a significant difference in favour of the experimental group in terms of achievement and attitudes, the prospective teachers have affirmative approach to the use of dynamic software and see it as an effective tool to enrich maths classes. In accordance with the findings of the study, it is suggested that dynamic software, which offers unique opportunities, be used in classes by teachers and students.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.
2007-12-01
Vegetation feedbacks over Asiatic Russia are assessed through a combined statistical and dynamical approach in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model, FOAM-LPJ. The dynamical assessment is comprised of initial value ensemble experiments in which the forest cover fraction is initially reduced over Asiatic Russia, replaced by grass cover, and then the climatic response is determined. The statistical feedback approach, adopted from previous studies of ocean-atmosphere interactions, is applied to compute the feedback of forest cover on subsequent temperature and precipitation in the control simulation. Both methodologies indicate a year-round positive feedback on temperature and precipitation, strongest in spring and moderately substantial in summer. Reduced boreal forest cover enhances the surface albedo, leading to an extended snow season, lower air temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and enhanced low cloud cover. Changes in the hydrological cycle include diminished transpiration and moisture recycling, supporting a reduction in precipitation. The close agreement in sign and magnitude between the statistical and dynamical feedback assessments testifies to the reliability of the statistical approach. This study supports the previous finding of a strong positive vegetation feedback on air temperature over Asiatic Russia in the observational record.
Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Díez, E.; Primo, C.; García-Moya, J. A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Orfila, B.
2005-05-01
Statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are tested and compared for downscaling seasonal precipitation forecasts over Spain from two DEMETER models: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO). The statistical method considered is a particular implementation of the standard analogue technique, based on close neighbours of the predicted atmospheric geopotential and humidity fields. Dynamical downscaling is performed using the Rossby Centre Climate Atmospheric model, which has been nested to the ECMWF model output, and run in climate mode for six months. We first check the performance of the direct output models in the period 1986 1997 and compare it with the results obtained applying the analogue method. We have found that the direct outputs underestimate the precipitation amount and that the statistical downscaling method improves the results as the skill of the direct forecast increases. The highest skills relative operating characteristic skill areas (RSAs) above 0.6 are associated with early and late spring, summer and autumn seasons at zero- and one-month lead times. On the other hand, models have poor skill during winter with the exception of the El Niño period (1986 1988), especially in the south of Spain. In this case, high RSAs and economic values have been found. We also compare statistical and dynamical downscaling during four seasons, obtaining no concluding result. Both methods outperform direct output from DEMETER models, but depending on the season and on the region of Spain one method is better than the other. Moreover, we have seen that dynamical and statistical methods can be used in combination, yielding the best skill scores in some cases of the study.
SDI-based business processes: A territorial analysis web information system in Spain
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Béjar, Rubén; Latre, Miguel Á.; Lopez-Pellicer, Francisco J.; Nogueras-Iso, Javier; Zarazaga-Soria, F. J.; Muro-Medrano, Pedro R.
2012-09-01
Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) provide access to geospatial data and operations through interoperable Web services. These data and operations can be chained to set up specialized geospatial business processes, and these processes can give support to different applications. End users can benefit from these applications, while experts can integrate the Web services in their own business processes and developments. This paper presents an SDI-based territorial analysis Web information system for Spain, which gives access to land cover, topography and elevation data, as well as to a number of interoperable geospatial operations by means of a Web Processing Service (WPS). Several examples illustrate how different territorial analysis business processes are supported. The system has been established by the Spanish National SDI (Infraestructura de Datos Espaciales de España, IDEE) both as an experimental platform for geoscientists and geoinformation system developers, and as a mechanism to contribute to the Spanish citizens knowledge about their territory.
Statistical analysis of cellular detonation dynamics from numerical simulations: one-step chemistry
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sharpe, G. J.; Radulescu, M. I.
2011-10-01
In this paper, two methods are developed for statistically analysing the nonlinear cellular dynamics from numerical simulations of gaseous detonations, one use of which is the systematic determination of detonation cell sizes from such simulations. Both these methods rely on signed vorticity records in which the individual families of transverse waves are captured independently. The first method involves an automated extraction of the main triple-point tracks from the vorticity records, allowing statistical analysis of the spacings between neighbouring tracks. The second method uses the autocorrelation function to spectrally analyse the vorticity records. These methods are then employed for a preliminary analysis of the cellular dynamics of the standard, idealized one-step chemistry model. Evidence is found for 'cell size doubling' bifurcations in the one-step model as the cellular dynamics become more irregular (e.g. as the activation is increased). It is also shown that the statistical models converge slowly due to systematic 'shot-to-shot' variation in the cellular dynamics for fixed parameters with different initial perturbations. Instead, it appears that a range of equally probable cell sizes can be obtained for given parameters.
Not Available
1993-06-08
The recent profound shift in the global balance of power in favor of the United States of America has had major repercussions on Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) planning. In particular, the focus has shifted from the provision of protection for the United States against a massive raid, involving possibly thousands of reentry vehicles, to defense against a much more limited attack which could now, however, be launched from any part of the world. Additionally, the United States is seeking to protect its forces and allies overseas, and in the task of missile detection and tracking, allowance must now be made for trajectories which can begin and end in almost any inhabited area of the globe. Thus SDI demands on surveillance technology have been significantly expanded. Space-based imaging systems will play a vital role in the surveillance task. In this report a description is first given of a typical scenario. The potential imaging problems are then examined, the mathematical background is discussed, and the innovative algorithms which have been developed for correcting and enhancing the performance of the imaging sensor are described.
A statistical physics viewpoint on the dynamics of the bouncing ball
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chastaing, Jean-Yonnel; Géminard, Jean-Christophe; Bertin, Eric
2016-06-01
We compute, in a statistical physics perspective, the dynamics of a bouncing ball maintained in a chaotic regime thanks to collisions with a plate experiencing an aperiodic vibration. We analyze in details the energy exchanges between the bead and the vibrating plate, and show that the coupling between the bead and the plate can be modeled in terms of both a dissipative process and an injection mechanism by an energy reservoir. An analysis of the injection statistics in terms of fluctuation relation is also provided.
Activities in HPM effects phenomenology at LLNL under the DNA/SDI Lth-6 effort
Cabayan, H.S.; King, R.J.
1988-01-01
During the fiscal years 1984-1986, DNA funded an effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under the SDI/Lth-6 program to develop models and to study the phenomenology of HPM interaction with systems. The effort concentrated on the following areas: linear coupling/modeling; linear coupling/experiments; nonlinear coupling/modeling; component failure/modeling; component characterization; and electronic subsystem characterization. This report sumarizes these subject areas.
a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.
As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.
The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pavlos, George
2015-04-01
As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time
The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pavlos, George
2015-04-01
As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time
Dynamic heterogeneity and non-Gaussian statistics for acetylcholine receptors on live cell membrane
He, W.; Song, H.; Su, Y.; Geng, L.; Ackerson, B. J.; Peng, H. B.; Tong, P.
2016-01-01
The Brownian motion of molecules at thermal equilibrium usually has a finite correlation time and will eventually be randomized after a long delay time, so that their displacement follows the Gaussian statistics. This is true even when the molecules have experienced a complex environment with a finite correlation time. Here, we report that the lateral motion of the acetylcholine receptors on live muscle cell membranes does not follow the Gaussian statistics for normal Brownian diffusion. From a careful analysis of a large volume of the protein trajectories obtained over a wide range of sampling rates and long durations, we find that the normalized histogram of the protein displacements shows an exponential tail, which is robust and universal for cells under different conditions. The experiment indicates that the observed non-Gaussian statistics and dynamic heterogeneity are inherently linked to the slow-active remodelling of the underlying cortical actin network. PMID:27226072
Dynamic heterogeneity and non-Gaussian statistics for acetylcholine receptors on live cell membrane
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
He, W.; Song, H.; Su, Y.; Geng, L.; Ackerson, B. J.; Peng, H. B.; Tong, P.
2016-05-01
The Brownian motion of molecules at thermal equilibrium usually has a finite correlation time and will eventually be randomized after a long delay time, so that their displacement follows the Gaussian statistics. This is true even when the molecules have experienced a complex environment with a finite correlation time. Here, we report that the lateral motion of the acetylcholine receptors on live muscle cell membranes does not follow the Gaussian statistics for normal Brownian diffusion. From a careful analysis of a large volume of the protein trajectories obtained over a wide range of sampling rates and long durations, we find that the normalized histogram of the protein displacements shows an exponential tail, which is robust and universal for cells under different conditions. The experiment indicates that the observed non-Gaussian statistics and dynamic heterogeneity are inherently linked to the slow-active remodelling of the underlying cortical actin network.
Dynamic heterogeneity and non-Gaussian statistics for acetylcholine receptors on live cell membrane.
He, W; Song, H; Su, Y; Geng, L; Ackerson, B J; Peng, H B; Tong, P
2016-01-01
The Brownian motion of molecules at thermal equilibrium usually has a finite correlation time and will eventually be randomized after a long delay time, so that their displacement follows the Gaussian statistics. This is true even when the molecules have experienced a complex environment with a finite correlation time. Here, we report that the lateral motion of the acetylcholine receptors on live muscle cell membranes does not follow the Gaussian statistics for normal Brownian diffusion. From a careful analysis of a large volume of the protein trajectories obtained over a wide range of sampling rates and long durations, we find that the normalized histogram of the protein displacements shows an exponential tail, which is robust and universal for cells under different conditions. The experiment indicates that the observed non-Gaussian statistics and dynamic heterogeneity are inherently linked to the slow-active remodelling of the underlying cortical actin network. PMID:27226072
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Méndez, Fernando
2014-12-01
The estimation of possible impacts related to climate change on the wave climate is subject to several levels of uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the uncertainties inherent in the method applied to project the wave climate using atmospheric simulations. Two approaches are commonly used to obtain the regional wave climate: dynamical and statistical downscaling from atmospheric data. We apply both approaches based on the outputs of a global climate model (GCM), ARPEGE-CLIMAT, under three possible future scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) of the Fourth Assessment Report, AR4 (IPCC, 2007), along the French coast and evaluate their results for the wave climate with a high level of precision. The performance of the dynamical and the statistical methods is determined through a comparative analysis of the estimated means, standard deviations and monthly quantile distributions of significant wave heights, the joint probability distributions of wave parameters and seasonal and interannual variability. Analysis of the results shows that the statistical projections are able to reproduce the wave climatology as well as the dynamical projections, with some deficiencies being observed in the summer and for the upper tail of the significant wave height. In addition, with its low computational time requirements, the statistical downscaling method allows an ensemble of simulations to be calculated faster than the dynamical method. It then becomes possible to quantify the uncertainties associated with the choice of the GCM or the socio-economic scenarios, which will improve estimates of the impact of wave climate change along the French coast.
New Methods for Applying Statistical State Dynamics to Problems in Atmospheric Turbulence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Farrell, B.; Ioannou, P. J.
2015-12-01
Adopting the perspective of statistical state dynamics (SSD) has led to a number of recent advances inunderstanding and simulating atmospheric turbulence at both boundary layer and planetary scale. Traditionally, realizations have been used to study turbulence and if a statistical quantity was needed it was obtained by averaging. However, it is now becomimg more widely appreciated that there are important advantages to studying the statistical state dynamics (SSD) directly. In turbulent systems statistical quantities are often the most useful and the advantage of obtaining these quantities directly as state variables is obvious. Moreover, quantities such as the probability density function (pdf) are often difficult to obtain accurately by sampling state trajectories. In the event that the pdf is itself time dependent or even chaotic, as is the case in the turbulence of the planetary boundary layer, the pdf can only be obtained as a state variable. However, perhaps the greatest advantage of the SSD approach is that it reveals directly the essential cooperative mechanisms of interaction among spatial and temporal scales that underly the turbulent state. In order to exploit these advantages of the SSD approach to geophysical turbulence, new analytical and computational methods are being developed. Example problems in atmospheric turbulence will be presented in which these new SSD analysis and computational methods are used.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moradkhani, Hamid
2015-04-01
Drought forecasting is vital for resource management and planning. Both societal and agricultural requirements for water weigh heavily on the natural environment, which may become scarce in the event of drought. Although drought forecasts are an important tool for managing water in hydrologic systems, these forecasts are plagued by uncertainties, owing to the complexities of water dynamics and the spatial heterogeneities of pertinent variables. Due to these uncertainties, it is necessary to frame forecasts in a probabilistic manner. Here we present a statistical-dynamical probabilistic drought forecast framework within Bayesian networks. The statistical forecast model applies a family of multivariate distribution functions to forecast future drought conditions given the drought status in the past. The advantage of the statistical forecast model is that it develops conditional probabilities of a given forecast variable, and returns the highest probable forecast along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. The dynamical model relies on data assimilation to characterize the initial land surface condition uncertainty which correspondingly reflect on drought forecast. In addition, the recovery of drought will be examined. From these forecasts, it is found that drought recovery is a longer process than suggested in recent literature. Drought in land surface variables (snow, soil moisture) is shown to be persistent up to a year in certain locations, depending on the intensity of the drought. Location within the basin appears to be a driving factor in the ability of the land surface to recover from drought, allowing for differentiation between drought prone and drought resistant regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Hao; Lu, Bo; Su, Zhongqing; Cheng, Li
2015-09-01
A previously developed damage identification strategy, named Pseudo-Excitation (PE), was enhanced using a statistical processing approach. In terms of the local dynamic equilibrium of the structural component under inspection, the distribution of its vibration displacements, which are of necessity to construct the damage index in the PE, was re-defined using sole dynamic strains based on the statistical method. On top of those advantages inheriting from the original PE compared with traditional vibration-based damage detection including the independence of baseline signals and pre-developed benchmark structures, the enhanced PE (EPE) possesses improved immunity to the interference of measurement noise. Moreover, the EPE can facilitate practical implementation of online structural health monitoring, benefiting from the use of sole strain information. Proof-of-concept numerical study was conducted to examine the feasibility and accuracy of the EPE, and the effectiveness of the proposed statistical enhancement in re-constructing the vibration displacements was evaluated under noise influence; experimental validation was followed up by characterizing multi-cracks in a beam-like structure, in which the dynamic strains were measured using Lead zirconium titanate (PZT) sensors. For comparison, the original PE, the Gapped Smoothing Method (GSM), and the EPE were respectively used to evaluate the cracks. It was observed from the damage identification results that both the GSM and EPE were able to achieve higher identification accuracy than the original PE, and the robustness of the EPE in damage identification was proven to be superior than that of the GSM.
The non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of a simple geophysical fluid dynamics model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Verkley, Wim; Severijns, Camiel
2014-05-01
Lorenz [1] has devised a dynamical system that has proved to be very useful as a benchmark system in geophysical fluid dynamics. The system in its simplest form consists of a periodic array of variables that can be associated with an atmospheric field on a latitude circle. The system is driven by a constant forcing, is damped by linear friction and has a simple advection term that causes the model to behave chaotically if the forcing is large enough. Our aim is to predict the statistics of Lorenz' model on the basis of a given average value of its total energy - obtained from a numerical integration - and the assumption of statistical stationarity. Our method is the principle of maximum entropy [2] which in this case reads: the information entropy of the system's probability density function shall be maximal under the constraints of normalization, a given value of the average total energy and statistical stationarity. Statistical stationarity is incorporated approximately by using `stationarity constraints', i.e., by requiring that the average first and possibly higher-order time-derivatives of the energy are zero in the maximization of entropy. The analysis [3] reveals that, if the first stationarity constraint is used, the resulting probability density function rather accurately reproduces the statistics of the individual variables. If the second stationarity constraint is used as well, the correlations between the variables are also reproduced quite adequately. The method can be generalized straightforwardly and holds the promise of a viable non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of the forced-dissipative systems of geophysical fluid dynamics. [1] E.N. Lorenz, 1996: Predictability - A problem partly solved, in Proc. Seminar on Predictability (ECMWF, Reading, Berkshire, UK), Vol. 1, pp. 1-18. [2] E.T. Jaynes, 2003: Probability Theory - The Logic of Science (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). [3] W.T.M. Verkley and C.A. Severijns, 2014: The maximum entropy
Dynamical and Statistical Aspects in Nucleus--Nucleus Collisions Around the Fermi Energy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tamain, B.; Assenard, M.; Auger, G.; Bacri, C. O.; Benlliure, J.; Bisquer, E.; Bocage, F.; Borderie, B.; Bougault, R.; Buchet, P.; Charvet, J. L.; Chbihi, A.; Colin, J.; Cussol, D.; Dayras, R.; Demeyer, A.; Dore, D.; Durand, D.; Eudes, P.; Frankland, J.; Galichet, E.; Genouin-Duhamel, E.; Gerlic, E.; Germain, M.; Gourio, D.; Guinet, D.; Gulminelli, F.; Lautesse, P.; Laville, J. L.; Lebrun, C.; Lecolley, J. F.; Lefevre, A.; Lefort, T.; Legrain, R.; Le Neindre, N.; Lopez, O.; Louvel, M.; Lukasik, J.; Marie, N.; Maskay, M.; Metivier, V.; Nalpas, L.; Nguyen, A.; Parlog, M.; Peter, J.; Plagnol, E.; Rahmani, A.; Reposeur, T.; Rivet, M. F.; Rosato, E.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Salou, S.; Squalli, M.; Steckmeyer, J. C.; Stern, M.; Tabacaru, T.; Tassan-Got, L.; Tirel, O.; Vient, E.; Volan, C.; Wieleczko, J. P.
1998-01-01
This contribution is devoted to two important aspects of intermediate energy nucleus-nucleus collisions: the competition of dynamical and statistical features, and the origin of the multifragmentation process. These two questions are discussed in focusing on Indra data. It turns out that most of collisions are binary and reminiscent of deep inelastic collisions observed at low energy. However, intermediate velocity emission is a clear signature of dynamical emission and establishes a link with the participant-spectator picture which applies at high bombarding energies. Multifragmentation is observed when the dissipated energy is large and it turns out that expansion occurs at least for central collisions, as it is expected if this phenomenum has a dynamical origin.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.
2009-02-01
We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.
Nguyen, Y; Nguyen, Nam X.; Rogers, Jamie L.; Liao, Jun; MacMillan, John B.
2015-01-01
ABSTRACT Bacteria engage in chemical signaling, termed quorum sensing (QS), to mediate intercellular communication, mimicking multicellular organisms. The LuxR family of QS transcription factors regulates gene expression, coordinating population behavior by sensing endogenous acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs). However, some bacteria (such as Escherichia coli) do not produce AHLs. These LuxR orphans sense exogenous AHLs but also regulate transcription in the absence of AHLs. Importantly, this AHL-independent regulatory mechanism is still largely unknown. Here we present several structures of one such orphan LuxR-type protein, SdiA, from enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), in the presence and absence of AHL. SdiA is actually not in an apo state without AHL but is regulated by a previously unknown endogenous ligand, 1-octanoyl-rac-glycerol (OCL), which is ubiquitously found throughout the tree of life and serves as an energy source, signaling molecule, and substrate for membrane biogenesis. While exogenous AHL renders to SdiA higher stability and DNA binding affinity, OCL may function as a chemical chaperone placeholder that stabilizes SdiA, allowing for basal activity. Structural comparison between SdiA-AHL and SdiA-OCL complexes provides crucial mechanistic insights into the ligand regulation of AHL-dependent and -independent function of LuxR-type proteins. Importantly, in addition to its contribution to basic science, this work has implications for public health, inasmuch as the SdiA signaling system aids the deadly human pathogen EHEC to adapt to a commensal lifestyle in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle, its main reservoir. These studies open exciting and novel avenues to control shedding of this human pathogen in the environment. PMID:25827420
Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui
2012-01-01
Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics
Providing Geographic Datasets as Linked Data in Sdi
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hietanen, E.; Lehto, L.; Latvala, P.
2016-06-01
In this study, a prototype service to provide data from Web Feature Service (WFS) as linked data is implemented. At first, persistent and unique Uniform Resource Identifiers (URI) are created to all spatial objects in the dataset. The objects are available from those URIs in Resource Description Framework (RDF) data format. Next, a Web Ontology Language (OWL) ontology is created to describe the dataset information content using the Open Geospatial Consortium's (OGC) GeoSPARQL vocabulary. The existing data model is modified in order to take into account the linked data principles. The implemented service produces an HTTP response dynamically. The data for the response is first fetched from existing WFS. Then the Geographic Markup Language (GML) format output of the WFS is transformed on-the-fly to the RDF format. Content Negotiation is used to serve the data in different RDF serialization formats. This solution facilitates the use of a dataset in different applications without replicating the whole dataset. In addition, individual spatial objects in the dataset can be referred with URIs. Furthermore, the needed information content of the objects can be easily extracted from the RDF serializations available from those URIs. A solution for linking data objects to the dataset URI is also introduced by using the Vocabulary of Interlinked Datasets (VoID). The dataset is divided to the subsets and each subset is given its persistent and unique URI. This enables the whole dataset to be explored with a web browser and all individual objects to be indexed by search engines.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miksovsky, J.; Huth, R.; Halenka, T.; Belda, M.; Farda, A.; Skalak, P.; Stepanek, P.
2009-12-01
To bridge the resolution gap between the outputs of global climate models (GCMs) and finer-scale data needed for studies of the climate change impacts, two approaches are widely used: dynamical downscaling, based on application of regional climate models (RCMs) embedded into the domain of the GCM simulation, and statistical downscaling (SDS), using empirical transfer functions between the large-scale data generated by the GCM and local measurements. In our contribution, we compare the performance of different variants of both techniques for the region of Central Europe. The dynamical downscaling is represented by the outputs of two regional models run in the 10 km horizontal grid, ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ (co-developed by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and Meteo-France) and RegCM3 (developed by the Abdus Salam Centre for Theoretical Physics). The applied statistical methods were based on multiple linear regression, as well as on several of its nonlinear alternatives, including techniques employing artificial neural networks. Validation of the downscaling outputs was carried out using measured data, gathered from weather stations in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary for the end of the 20th century; series of daily values of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and relative humidity were analyzed. None of the regional models or statistical downscaling techniques could be identified as the universally best one. For instance, while most statistical methods misrepresented the shape of the statistical distribution of the target variables (especially in the more challenging cases such as estimation of daily precipitation), RCM-generated data often suffered from severe biases. It is also shown that further enhancement of the simulated fields of climate variables can be achieved through a combination of dynamical downscaling and statistical postprocessing. This can not only be used to reduce biases and other systematic flaws in the generated time
Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu
2014-04-01
Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics.
Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems
Timmis, Jon; Qwarnstrom, Eva E.
2016-01-01
Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. PMID:27571414
Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems.
Williams, Richard A; Timmis, Jon; Qwarnstrom, Eva E
2016-01-01
Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. PMID:27571414
Dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging: II. Task-oriented statistical estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karakatsanis, Nicolas A.; Lodge, Martin A.; Zhou, Y.; Wahl, Richard L.; Rahmim, Arman
2013-10-01
In the context of oncology, dynamic PET imaging coupled with standard graphical linear analysis has been previously employed to enable quantitative estimation of tracer kinetic parameters of physiological interest at the voxel level, thus, enabling quantitative PET parametric imaging. However, dynamic PET acquisition protocols have been confined to the limited axial field-of-view (˜15-20 cm) of a single-bed position and have not been translated to the whole-body clinical imaging domain. On the contrary, standardized uptake value (SUV) PET imaging, considered as the routine approach in clinical oncology, commonly involves multi-bed acquisitions, but is performed statically, thus not allowing for dynamic tracking of the tracer distribution. Here, we pursue a transition to dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging, by presenting, within a unified framework, clinically feasible multi-bed dynamic PET acquisition protocols and parametric imaging methods. In a companion study, we presented a novel clinically feasible dynamic (4D) multi-bed PET acquisition protocol as well as the concept of whole-body PET parametric imaging employing Patlak ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate the quantitative parameters of tracer uptake rate Ki and total blood distribution volume V. In the present study, we propose an advanced hybrid linear regression framework, driven by Patlak kinetic voxel correlations, to achieve superior trade-off between contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and mean squared error (MSE) than provided by OLS for the final Ki parametric images, enabling task-based performance optimization. Overall, whether the observer's task is to detect a tumor or quantitatively assess treatment response, the proposed statistical estimation framework can be adapted to satisfy the specific task performance criteria, by adjusting the Patlak correlation-coefficient (WR) reference value. The multi-bed dynamic acquisition protocol, as optimized in the preceding companion study
Cluster statistics and quasisoliton dynamics in microscopic optimal-velocity models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Bo; Xu, Xihua; Pang, John Z. F.; Monterola, Christopher
2016-04-01
Using the non-linear optimal velocity models as an example, we show that there exists an emergent intrinsic scale that characterizes the interaction strength between multiple clusters appearing in the solutions of such models. The interaction characterizes the dynamics of the localized quasisoliton structures given by the time derivative of the headways, and the intrinsic scale is analogous to the "charge" of the quasisolitons, leading to non-trivial cluster statistics from the random perturbations to the initial steady states of uniform headways. The cluster statistics depend both on the quasisoliton charge and the density of the traffic. The intrinsic scale is also related to an emergent quantity that gives the extremum headways in the cluster formation, as well as the coexistence curve separating the absolute stable phase from the metastable phase. The relationship is qualitatively universal for general optimal velocity models.
Statistics of voltage drop in distribution circuits: a dynamic programming approach
Turitsyn, Konstantin S
2010-01-01
We analyze a power distribution line with high penetration of distributed generation and strong variations of power consumption and generation levels. In the presence of uncertainty the statistical description of the system is required to assess the risks of power outages. In order to find the probability of exceeding the constraints for voltage levels we introduce the probability distribution of maximal voltage drop and propose an algorithm for finding this distribution. The algorithm is based on the assumption of random but statistically independent distribution of loads on buses. Linear complexity in the number of buses is achieved through the dynamic programming technique. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm by analyzing a simple 4-bus system with high variations of load levels.
An open-source wireless sensor stack: from Arduino to SDI-12 to Water One Flow
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hicks, S.; Damiano, S. G.; Smith, K. M.; Olexy, J.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Mayorga, E.; Aufdenkampe, A. K.
2013-12-01
Implementing a large-scale streaming environmental sensor network has previously been limited by the high cost of the datalogging and data communication infrastructure. The Christina River Basin Critical Zone Observatory (CRB-CZO) is overcoming the obstacles to large near-real-time data collection networks by using Arduino, an open source electronics platform, in combination with XBee ZigBee wireless radio modules. These extremely low-cost and easy-to-use open source electronics are at the heart of the new DIY movement and have provided solutions to countless projects by over half a million users worldwide. However, their use in environmental sensing is in its infancy. At present a primary limitation to widespread deployment of open-source electronics for environmental sensing is the lack of a simple, open-source software stack to manage streaming data from heterogeneous sensor networks. Here we present a functioning prototype software stack that receives sensor data over a self-meshing ZigBee wireless network from over a hundred sensors, stores the data locally and serves it on demand as a CUAHSI Water One Flow (WOF) web service. We highlight a few new, innovative components, including: (1) a versatile open data logger design based the Arduino electronics platform and ZigBee radios; (2) a software library implementing SDI-12 communication protocol between any Arduino platform and SDI12-enabled sensors without the need for additional hardware (https://github.com/StroudCenter/Arduino-SDI-12); and (3) 'midStream', a light-weight set of Python code that receives streaming sensor data, appends it with metadata on the fly by querying a relational database structured on an early version of the Observations Data Model version 2.0 (ODM2), and uses the WOFpy library to serve the data as WaterML via SOAP and REST web services.
A unified n-body and statistical treatment of stellar dynamics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lightman, A. P.; Mcmillan, S. L. W.
1985-01-01
The methods of a new 'hybrid' computed code for stellar dynamics are summarized. All particles in the inner spatial region are followed exactly via a direct N-body code and all particles in the outer spatial region are treated statistically via a distribution function and Fokker-Planck type methods. An intermediate region, with features of both, allows exchange of particles and energy between the outer and inner regions. The code is applied to the period just before core collapse and just after and the results are summarized.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Farmer, Dean A.
1992-08-01
The various core technologies developed from the SDI programs are described and the cost and weight reductions that have resulted from the systematic exploitation of today's aerospace expertise are characterized. Avionics, sensors, and on-orbit propulsion systems can be utilized in developing small, low-cost devices for space exploration with significant performance capabilities. It is shown how the resulting core technologies can be employed in constructing three specific types of miniaturized spacecraft: a 16 kg planetary rover, a 200 kg lunar lander, and a 45 kg space vehicle repair and rescue craft.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haas, R.; Pinto, J. G.
2012-12-01
The occurrence of mid-latitude windstorms is related to strong socio-economic effects. For detailed and reliable regional impact studies, large datasets of high-resolution wind fields are required. In this study, a statistical downscaling approach in combination with dynamical downscaling is introduced to derive storm related gust speeds on a high-resolution grid over Europe. Multiple linear regression models are trained using reanalysis data and wind gusts from regional climate model simulations for a sample of 100 top ranking windstorm events. The method is computationally inexpensive and reproduces individual windstorm footprints adequately. Compared to observations, the results for Germany are at least as good as pure dynamical downscaling. This new tool can be easily applied to large ensembles of general circulation model simulations and thus contribute to a better understanding of the regional impact of windstorms based on decadal and climate change projections.
Dynamic Statistical Characterization of Variation in Source Processes of Microseismic Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith-Boughner, L.; Viegas, G. F.; Urbancic, T.; Baig, A. M.
2015-12-01
During a hydraulic fracture, water is pumped at high pressure into a formation. A proppant, typically sand is later injected in the hope that it will make its way into a fracture, keep it open and provide a path for the hydrocarbon to enter the well. This injection can create micro-earthquakes, generated by deformation within the reservoir during treatment. When these injections are monitored, thousands of microseismic events are recorded within several hundred cubic meters. For each well-located event, many source parameters are estimated e.g. stress drop, Savage-Wood efficiency and apparent stress. However, because we are evaluating outputs from a power-law process, the extent to which the failure is impacted by fluid injection or stress triggering is not immediately clear. To better detect differences in source processes, we use a set of dynamic statistical parameters which characterize various force balance assumptions using the average distance to the nearest event, event rate, volume enclosed by the events, cumulative moment and energy from a group of events. One parameter, the Fracability index, approximates the ratio of viscous to elastic forcing and highlights differences in the response time of a rock to changes in stress. These dynamic parameters are applied to a database of more than 90 000 events in a shale-gas play in the Horn River Basin to characterize spatial-temporal variations in the source processes. In order to resolve these differences, a moving window, nearest neighbour approach was used. First, the center of mass of the local distribution was estimated for several source parameters. Then, a set of dynamic parameters, which characterize the response of the rock were estimated. These techniques reveal changes in seismic efficiency and apparent stress and often coincide with marked changes in the Fracability index and other dynamic statistical parameters. Utilizing these approaches allowed for the characterization of fluid injection related
Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.
2015-01-01
Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total
Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.
2015-08-01
Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O (√{N }) ] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems—age-size relationships and species extinction time—in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics.
Statistical state dynamics of jet/wave coexistence in beta-plane turbulence
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Constantinou, Navid; Farrell, Brian; Ioannou, Petros
Jets are commonly observed to coexist in the turbulence of planetary atmospheres with planetary scale waves and embedded vortices. These large-scale coherent structures arise and are maintained in the turbulence on time scales long compared to dissipation or advective time scales. The emergence, equilibration at finite amplitude, maintenance and stability of these structures pose fundamental theoretical problems. The emergence of jets and vortices from turbulence is not associated with an instability of the mean flow and their equilibration and stability at finite amplitude does not arise solely from the linear or nonlinear dynamics of these structures in isolation from the turbulence surrounding them. Rather the dynamics of these large-scale structures arises essentially from their cooperative interaction with the small-scale turbulence in which they are embedded. It follows that fundamental theoretical understanding of the dynamics of jets and vortices in turbulence requires adopting the perspective of the statistical state dynamics (SSD) of the entire turbulent state. In this work a theory for the jet/wave coexistence regime is developed using the SSD perspective.
Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes.
Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M
2015-08-01
Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O√N)] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems--age-size relationships and species extinction time--in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics. PMID:26382447
Pavlov; Punegov
2000-05-01
The statistical dynamical theory of X-ray diffraction is developed for a crystal containing statistically distributed microdefects. Fourier-component equations for coherent and diffuse (incoherent) scattered waves have been obtained in the case of so-called triple-crystal diffractometry. New correlation lengths and areas are introduced for characterization of the scattered volume. PMID:10851584
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hellström, Cecilia; Chen, Deliang
2003-11-01
A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.
Sivasamy, Aneetha Avalappampatty; Sundan, Bose
2015-01-01
The ever expanding communication requirements in today's world demand extensive and efficient network systems with equally efficient and reliable security features integrated for safe, confident, and secured communication and data transfer. Providing effective security protocols for any network environment, therefore, assumes paramount importance. Attempts are made continuously for designing more efficient and dynamic network intrusion detection models. In this work, an approach based on Hotelling's T(2) method, a multivariate statistical analysis technique, has been employed for intrusion detection, especially in network environments. Components such as preprocessing, multivariate statistical analysis, and attack detection have been incorporated in developing the multivariate Hotelling's T(2) statistical model and necessary profiles have been generated based on the T-square distance metrics. With a threshold range obtained using the central limit theorem, observed traffic profiles have been classified either as normal or attack types. Performance of the model, as evaluated through validation and testing using KDD Cup'99 dataset, has shown very high detection rates for all classes with low false alarm rates. Accuracy of the model presented in this work, in comparison with the existing models, has been found to be much better. PMID:26357668
Avalappampatty Sivasamy, Aneetha; Sundan, Bose
2015-01-01
The ever expanding communication requirements in today's world demand extensive and efficient network systems with equally efficient and reliable security features integrated for safe, confident, and secured communication and data transfer. Providing effective security protocols for any network environment, therefore, assumes paramount importance. Attempts are made continuously for designing more efficient and dynamic network intrusion detection models. In this work, an approach based on Hotelling's T2 method, a multivariate statistical analysis technique, has been employed for intrusion detection, especially in network environments. Components such as preprocessing, multivariate statistical analysis, and attack detection have been incorporated in developing the multivariate Hotelling's T2 statistical model and necessary profiles have been generated based on the T-square distance metrics. With a threshold range obtained using the central limit theorem, observed traffic profiles have been classified either as normal or attack types. Performance of the model, as evaluated through validation and testing using KDD Cup'99 dataset, has shown very high detection rates for all classes with low false alarm rates. Accuracy of the model presented in this work, in comparison with the existing models, has been found to be much better. PMID:26357668
A Statistical Approach for the Concurrent Coupling of Molecular Dynamics and Finite Element Methods
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Saether, E.; Yamakov, V.; Glaessgen, E.
2007-01-01
Molecular dynamics (MD) methods are opening new opportunities for simulating the fundamental processes of material behavior at the atomistic level. However, increasing the size of the MD domain quickly presents intractable computational demands. A robust approach to surmount this computational limitation has been to unite continuum modeling procedures such as the finite element method (FEM) with MD analyses thereby reducing the region of atomic scale refinement. The challenging problem is to seamlessly connect the two inherently different simulation techniques at their interface. In the present work, a new approach to MD-FEM coupling is developed based on a restatement of the typical boundary value problem used to define a coupled domain. The method uses statistical averaging of the atomistic MD domain to provide displacement interface boundary conditions to the surrounding continuum FEM region, which, in return, generates interface reaction forces applied as piecewise constant traction boundary conditions to the MD domain. The two systems are computationally disconnected and communicate only through a continuous update of their boundary conditions. With the use of statistical averages of the atomistic quantities to couple the two computational schemes, the developed approach is referred to as an embedded statistical coupling method (ESCM) as opposed to a direct coupling method where interface atoms and FEM nodes are individually related. The methodology is inherently applicable to three-dimensional domains, avoids discretization of the continuum model down to atomic scales, and permits arbitrary temperatures to be applied.
SERVIR's Contributions and Benefits to Belize thru Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) Development
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Irwin, Daniel E.
2006-01-01
Dan Irwin, the SERVIR Project Manager is being honored with the privilege of delivering the opening remarks at Belize s second celebration of GIS Day, a weeklong event to be held at the University of Belize's campus in the nation s capital, Belmopan. The request has been extended by the GIS Day Planning Committee which operates under the auspices of Belize s Ministry of Natural Resources & the Environment, which is the focal ministry for SERVIR. In the 20-30 min. allotted for the opening remarks, the SERVIR Project Manager will expound on how SERVIR, operating under the auspices of NASA s Ecological Forecasting Program, contributes to spatial data infrastructure (SDI) development in Belize. NASA s contributions to the region - particularly work under the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor - will be highlighted. Continuing, the remarks will discuss SERVIR s role in Belize s steadily expanding SDI, particularly in the context of delivering integrated decision support products via web-based infrastructure. The remarks will close with a call to the parties assembled to work together in the application of Earth Observation Systems technologies for the benefit of Belizean society as a whole. NASA s strong presence in Belize s GIS Day celebrations will be highlighted as sustained goodwill of the American people - in partial fulfillment of goals set forth under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando
2013-04-01
Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, H.; Kang, I.; Webster, P. J.
2008-12-01
We consider intraseasonal variation (ISV) prediction by statistical and dynamical models. For the fair comparison, the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index for the boreal winter is used as a predictand. The statistical prediction results are compared by reassessing the multi linear regression (MLR), wavelet, and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) model. The correlation score for RMM1 (RMM2) falls away to 0.5 between 16-17 (15-16) days for MLR, 7-8 (9-10) days for wavelet, and 8-9 (9-10) days for SSA model. As both wavelet and SSA model have a discontinuity at the boundary of data, the skill of the real-time forecast shows a steep decrease at the beginning of the forecasts. To examine the skill of dynamical prediction, serial integration is performed with Seoul National University AGCM and CGCM over the entire boreal winter period. The ocean-atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation ability of MJO variability, the eastward propagation, and the phase relationship between convection and SST. The skill score of RMM1 (RMM2) falls out to 0.5 at 18-19 (22-23), 15-16 (17-18), and 16-17 (15-16) for CGCM, AGCM, and MLR. This result demonstrates that dynamical prediction does not lag statistical prediction in skill and is even better when ocean-atmosphere coupling is included. The dependency of prediction skill on the initial phase and amplitude of the MJO is investigated. The score is better when the MJO is initialized during an active period than during a quiescent period for both systems. Based on different characteristics of prediction skill for each phase and amplitude and for individual models, predictions are combined using available information extracted using the better of the two predictions. By simple selection, the prediction skill is clearly improved in strong MJO cases. Using another combination process based on Bayesian concepts, two independent predictions are combined by minimizing the forecast error that is known from
Defect-phase-dynamics approach to statistical domain-growth problem of clock models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kawasaki, K.
1985-01-01
The growth of statistical domains in quenched Ising-like p-state clock models with p = 3 or more is investigated theoretically, reformulating the analysis of Ohta et al. (1982) in terms of a phase variable and studying the dynamics of defects introduced into the phase field when the phase variable becomes multivalued. The resulting defect/phase domain-growth equation is applied to the interpretation of Monte Carlo simulations in two dimensions (Kaski and Gunton, 1983; Grest and Srolovitz, 1984), and problems encountered in the analysis of related Potts models are discussed. In the two-dimensional case, the problem is essentially that of a purely dissipative Coulomb gas, with a sq rt t growth law complicated by vertex-pinning effects at small t.
Collisional statistics and dynamics of two-dimensional hard-disk systems: From fluid to solid.
Taloni, Alessandro; Meroz, Yasmine; Huerta, Adrián
2015-08-01
We perform extensive MD simulations of two-dimensional systems of hard disks, focusing on the collisional statistical properties. We analyze the distribution functions of velocity, free flight time, and free path length for packing fractions ranging from the fluid to the solid phase. The behaviors of the mean free flight time and path length between subsequent collisions are found to drastically change in the coexistence phase. We show that single-particle dynamical properties behave analogously in collisional and continuous-time representations, exhibiting apparent crossovers between the fluid and the solid phases. We find that, both in collisional and continuous-time representation, the mean-squared displacement, velocity autocorrelation functions, intermediate scattering functions, and self-part of the van Hove function (propagator) closely reproduce the same behavior exhibited by the corresponding quantities in granular media, colloids, and supercooled liquids close to the glass or jamming transition. PMID:26382368
Development of a Dynamics-Based Statistical Prediction Model for the Changma Onset
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, H. L.; Seo, K. H.; Son, J. H.
2015-12-01
The timing of the changma onset has high impacts on the Korean Peninsula, yet its seasonal prediction remains a great challenge because the changma undergoes various influences from the tropics, subtropics, and midlatitudes. In this study, a dynamics-based statistical prediction model for the changma onset is proposed. This model utilizes three predictors of slowly varying sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the northern tropical central Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific occurring in the preceding spring season. SSTAs associated with each predictor persist until June and have an effect on the changma onset by inducing an anticyclonic anomaly to the southeast of the Korean Peninsula earlier than the climatological changma onset date. The persisting negative SSTAs over the northern tropical central Pacific and accompanying anomalous trade winds induce enhanced convection over the far-western tropical Pacific; in turn, these induce a cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea and an anticyclonic anomaly southeast of the Korean Peninsula. Diabatic heating and cooling tendency related to the North Atlantic dipolar SSTAs induces downstream Rossby wave propagation in the upper troposphere, developing a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly to the south of the Korean Peninsula. A westerly wind anomaly at around 45°N resulting from the developing positive SSTAs over the North Pacific directly reduces the strength of the Okhotsk high and gives rise to an anticyclonic anomaly southeast of the Korean Peninsula. With the dynamics-based statistical prediction model, it is demonstrated that the changma onset has considerable predictability of r = 0.73 for the period from 1982 to 2014.
Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anagnostopoulou, Christina
2016-04-01
Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961-1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3).
Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chih-Yuan; Diaz, Manuel; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui; Zhang, Hanxin
2014-01-01
The ideal quantum gas dynamics as manifested by the semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) equilibrium distribution derived in Wu et al. (Wu et al. 2012 Proc. R. Soc. A 468, 1799–1823 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2011.0673)) is numerically studied for particles of three statistics. This anisotropic ES equilibrium distribution was derived using the maximum entropy principle and conserves the mass, momentum and energy, but differs from the standard Fermi–Dirac or Bose–Einstein distribution. The present numerical method combines the discrete velocity (or momentum) ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock-capturing method in physical space. A decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. Computations of two-dimensional Riemann problems are presented, and various contours of the quantities unique to this ES model are illustrated. The main flow features, such as shock waves, expansion waves and slip lines and their complex nonlinear interactions, are depicted and found to be consistent with existing calculations for a classical gas. PMID:24399919
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tessarotto, Massimo; Cremaschini, Claudio
2014-07-01
In this investigation, exact particular realizations are sought for the microscopic statistical description which is associated with the classical dynamical system (CDS) formed by N identical smooth hard spheres subject to elastic collisions ( S N -CDS). The problem is posed in the framework of the ab initio statistical description of S N -CDS recently developed. It is shown that the Liouville equation associated with SN-CDS admits an exact particular solution for the N-body probability density function (PDF). This is factorized in terms of the i-th particle 1-body PDF (for all i = 1, N) via suitable weighting factors, which are denoted here as particle occupation coefficients. The latter are found to depend functionally only on the 1-body PDFs which are associated with each of the remaining particles belonging to S N -CDS. Furthermore, the 1-body PDF is proved to obey a well-defined statistical equation, referred to here as Master kinetic equation. This is an exact kinetic equation which takes into account the occurrence of configuration-space correlations due to the finite size of the extended particles, while depending functionally on the same 1-body PDF only. The asymptotic approximation of the Master equation, which holds in validity of the Boltzmann-Grad limit, is shown to recover in a suitable asymptotic sense the customary Boltzmann equation. Finally, a critical analysis is presented of the original and modified versions of the Enskog kinetic equation, as well as of some of the non-linear kinetic approaches formulated in the past for dense granular gases. Their conditions of validity and main differences with respect to the present theory are pointed out.
An Embedded Statistical Method for Coupling Molecular Dynamics and Finite Element Analyses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Saether, E.; Glaessgen, E.H.; Yamakov, V.
2008-01-01
The coupling of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with finite element methods (FEM) yields computationally efficient models that link fundamental material processes at the atomistic level with continuum field responses at higher length scales. The theoretical challenge involves developing a seamless connection along an interface between two inherently different simulation frameworks. Various specialized methods have been developed to solve particular classes of problems. Many of these methods link the kinematics of individual MD atoms with FEM nodes at their common interface, necessarily requiring that the finite element mesh be refined to atomic resolution. Some of these coupling approaches also require simulations to be carried out at 0 K and restrict modeling to two-dimensional material domains due to difficulties in simulating full three-dimensional material processes. In the present work, a new approach to MD-FEM coupling is developed based on a restatement of the standard boundary value problem used to define a coupled domain. The method replaces a direct linkage of individual MD atoms and finite element (FE) nodes with a statistical averaging of atomistic displacements in local atomic volumes associated with each FE node in an interface region. The FEM and MD computational systems are effectively independent and communicate only through an iterative update of their boundary conditions. With the use of statistical averages of the atomistic quantities to couple the two computational schemes, the developed approach is referred to as an embedded statistical coupling method (ESCM). ESCM provides an enhanced coupling methodology that is inherently applicable to three-dimensional domains, avoids discretization of the continuum model to atomic scale resolution, and permits finite temperature states to be applied.
Dislocation dynamics, plasticity and avalanche statistics using the phase-field crystal model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Angheluta, Luiza
2013-03-01
The plastic deformation of stressed crystalline materials is characterized by intermittency and scaling behavior. The sudden strain bursts arise from collective interactions between depinned crystal defects such as dislocations. Recent experiments on sheared nanocrystals provide insights into the connection between the crystal plasticity and the mean field theory of the depinning transition, based on the similar power-law statistics of avalanche events. However, a complete theoretical formulation of this connection is still lacking, as are high quality numerical data. Phase field crystal modelling provides an efficient numerical approach to simulating the dynamics of dislocations in plastic flows at finite temperature. Dislocations are naturally created as defects in a periodic ground state that is being sheared, without any ad hoc creation and annihilation rules. These crystal defects interact and annihilate with one another, generating a collective effect of avalanches in the global plastic strain rate. We examine the statistics of plastic avalanches both at finite and zero temperatures, and find good agreement with the predictions of the mean field interface depinning theory. Moreover, we predict universal scaling forms for the extreme statistics of avalanches and universal relations between the power-law exponents of avalanche duration, size and extreme value. These results account for the observed power-law distribution of the maximum amplitudes in acoustic emission experiments of crystal plasticity, but are also broadly applicable to other systems in the mean-field interface depinning universality class, ranging from magnets to earthquakes. The work reported here was performed in collaboration with: Georgios Tsekenis, Michael LeBlanc, Patrick Y Chan, Jon Dantzig, Karin Dahmen, and Nigel Goldenfeld. The work was supported by the Center for Physics of Geological Processes (Norway) through a post-doctoral grant, the National Science Foundation through grant NSF
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) as with all microirrigation systems is typically only used on crops with greater value. In the U.S. Great Plains region, the typical irrigated crops are the cereal and oil seed crops and cotton. These crops have less economic revenue than typical microirrigated cro...
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
An experimental field moisture controlled subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system was designed and installed as a field trial in a Vertisol in the Alabama Black Belt region for two years. The system was designed to start hydraulic dosing only when field moisture was below field capacity. Results sho...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wixon, D. W.; Housman, E. M.
The report describes a large-scale computerized system for Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) developed over the past five years at the U.S. Army Electronics Command to serve its technical personnel. The system, which uses as its document base the current accessions of the Defense Documentation Center, was developed in three phases: (1)…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Garson, G. David
While President Reagan and Secretary of State Shultz shared the same policy goals, content analysis shows substantial differences with regard to arms control and the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), not only between Reagan and Shultz, but also among Reagan's roles as a political leader, as chief executive, and as statesman to the world…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fitzgerald, J.; Farrell, B.
2013-12-01
Equatorial deep jets (EDJs) are persistent, zonally-coherent jets found within one degree of the equator in all ocean basins (Luyten and Swallow, 1976). The jets are characterized by a vertically oscillating ('stacked') structure between ~500-2000m depth, with jet amplitudes on the order of 10 cm/s superimposed upon a large-scale background shear flow. EDJs are a striking feature of the equatorial climate system and play an important role in equatorial ocean transport. However, the physical mechanism responsible for the presence of EDJs remains uncertain. Previous theoretical models for EDJs have suggested mechanisms involving the reflection and constructive interference of equatorially trapped waves (Wunsch 1977, McCreary 1984) and the instability of mixed Rossby-gravity waves with EDJs as the fastest-growing eigenfunction (Hua et al. 2008, Eden et al. 2008). In this work we explore the jet formation mechanism and the parameter dependence of EDJ structure in the idealized theoretical model of the stochastically-driven equatorial beta plane. The model is formulated in three ways: 1) Fully nonlinear equations of motion 2) Quasilinear (or mean-field) dynamics 3) Statistical state dynamics employing a second order closure method (stochastic structural stability theory). Results from the three models are compared, and the implications for both the jet formation and equilibration mechanisms, as well as the role of eddy-eddy nonlinearity in the EDJ system, are discussed.
Rogachev, A S; Baras, F
2009-02-01
We present a detailed experimental study of high-temperature self-propagating fronts using image processing techniques. The intrinsic features of the wave propagation are investigated as a function of the combustion temperature TC for a model system made of titanium and silicon powders. Different front behavior is realized by changing the molar ratio x of the mixture Ti+xSi. Outside the range x=[0.3,1.5], no thermal front is propagating while inside, three regimes are observed: steady-state combustion which is characterized by a flat front propagating at constant velocity and two unsteady regimes. The combustion temperature (or the corresponding ratio x) is thus playing the role of bifurcation parameter leading from stationary state to complex behavior. In the titanium-rich mixture, the position of the front oscillates and hot spots propagate along the external border of the sample. At lower amounts of Ti, localized bright regions appear randomly and deform the front profile. The associated dynamical behavior is a relay-race mechanism which becomes more pronounced close to the combustion limit. Methods are developed to characterize the structural and dynamical properties of thermal waves near instabilities, with a special emphasis on the statistical aspects. It is clearly demonstrated that the mesoscopic scale phenomena interfere significantly with the macroscopic behavior. The experiments reveal front behaviors that cannot be described using the usual macroscopic theories. PMID:19391827
Ni, Bo; He, Fazhi; Yuan, ZhiYong
2015-12-01
Segmenting the lesion areas from ultrasound (US) images is an important step in the intra-operative planning of high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU). However, accurate segmentation remains a challenge due to intensity inhomogeneity, blurry boundaries in HIFU US images and the deformation of uterine fibroids caused by patient's breathing or external force. This paper presents a novel dynamic statistical shape model (SSM)-based segmentation method to accurately and efficiently segment the target region in HIFU US images of uterine fibroids. For accurately learning the prior shape information of lesion boundary fluctuations in the training set, the dynamic properties of stochastic differential equation and Fokker-Planck equation are incorporated into SSM (referred to as SF-SSM). Then, a new observation model of lesion areas (named to RPFM) in HIFU US images is developed to describe the features of the lesion areas and provide a likelihood probability to the prior shape given by SF-SSM. SF-SSM and RPFM are integrated into active contour model to improve the accuracy and robustness of segmentation in HIFU US images. We compare the proposed method with four well-known US segmentation methods to demonstrate its superiority. The experimental results in clinical HIFU US images validate the high accuracy and robustness of our approach, even when the quality of the images is unsatisfactory, indicating its potential for practical application in HIFU therapy. PMID:26459767
Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.
2001-04-09
The estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from projection data is potentially useful for clinical dynamic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies, particularly in those clinics that have only single-detector systems and thus are not able to perform rapid tomographic acquisitions. Because the radiopharmaceutical distribution changes while the SPECT gantry rotates, projections at different angles come from different tracer distributions. A dynamic image sequence reconstructed from the inconsistent projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry can contain artifacts that lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying regions of interest on the images. If cone beam collimators are used and the focal point of the collimators always remains in a particular transaxial plane, additional artifacts can arise in other planes reconstructed using insufficient projection samples [1]. If the projection samples truncate the patient's body, this can result in additional image artifacts. To overcome these sources of bias in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we and others have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view [2-8]. In our previous work we developed a computationally efficient method for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions from dynamic SPECT projection data [5], which extended Formiconi's least squares algorithm for reconstructing temporally static distributions [9]. In addition, we studied the biases that result from modeling various orders temporal continuity and using various time samplings [5]. the present work, we address computational issues associated with evaluating the statistical uncertainty of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hastings, Whitney Allen
This dissertation combines rigid body motion kinematics and statistical analysis techniques to extract information from detailed dynamic simulations and large databases of biomolecular structures. This information is then used to quantify and elucidate structural patterns that could be used to design functional nano-structures or provide new targets for ligand-based drug design. In this regard, three particular classes of problems are examined. First, we propose new methods for estimating the stiffness of continuum filament models of helical nucleic acid structures. In this work, molecular dynamics is used to sample RNA helices consisting of several base-pairs fluctuating about an equilibrium position. At equilibrium, each base-pair has a tightly clustered probability distribution and so we can describe the rigid body motion of the helix as the convolution of highly concentrated probability densities on SE(3). Second, the structure and dynamics of a common RNA non-helical motif is classified. We examine several RNA bulges with varying sequences and helix curvature, and establish degrees of similarity (and dissimilarity) in the bulge motif according to the nucleic acid type of the bulge and surrounding base-pairs. Both the "static" X-ray-crystal and NMR structures and the dynamics generated from molecular dynamics simulations are used to quantify the flexibility and conservative aspects of the motif. The resulting classification scheme provides bulge motifs that could be included in a toolbox of "nanostructures" where one could pick the pieces to design a structure that has the needed shape and desired behavior. Finally, we analyze a large collection of adenosine binding sites, focusing on the functional region of the binding site. We provide a new analysis tool that finds spatial patterns in adenosine binding pockets by examining the relative pose (position and orientation) between the adenosine ligand and the amino acids at each binding site. The similarities of
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahn, J.; Lee, J.; Shim, K.; Kim, Y.
2013-12-01
In spite of dense meteorological observation conducting over South Korea (The average distance between stations: ~ 12.7km), the detailed topographical effect is not reflected properly due to its mountainous terrains and observation sites mostly situated on low altitudes. A model represents such a topographical effect well, but due to systematic biases in the model, the general temperature distribution is sometimes far different from actual observation. This study attempts to produce a detailed mean temperature distribution for South Korea through a method combining dynamical downscaling and statistical correction. For the dynamical downscaling, a multi-nesting technique is applied to obtain 3-km resolution data with a focus on the domain for the period of 10 years (1999-2008). For the correction of systematic biases, a perturbation method divided into the mean and the perturbation part was used with a different correction method being applied to each part. The mean was corrected by a weighting function while the perturbation was corrected by the self-organizing maps method. The results with correction agree well with the observed pattern compared to those without correction, improving the spatial and temporal correlations as well as the RMSE. In addition, they represented detailed spatial features of temperature including topographic signals, which cannot be expressed properly by gridded observation. Through comparison with in-situ observation with gridded values after objective analysis, it was found that the detailed structure correctly reflected topographically diverse signals that could not be derived from limited observation data. We expect that the correction method developed in this study can be effectively used for the analyses and projections of climate downscaled by using region climate models. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant CATER 2012-3083 and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Balasis, G.
2012-04-01
Dynamical complexity detection for output time series of complex systems is one of the foremost problems in physics, biology, engineering, and economic sciences. Especially in geomagnetism and magnetospheric physics, accurate detection of the dissimilarity between normal and abnormal states (e.g. pre-storm activity and magnetic storms) can vastly improve geomagnetic field modelling as well as space weather forecasting, respectively. Nonextensive statistical mechanics through Tsallis entropy provides a solid theoretical basis for describing and analyzing complex systems out of equilibrium, particularly systems exhibiting long-range correlations or fractal properties. Entropy measures (e.g., Tsallis entropy, Shannon entropy, block entropy, Kolmogorov entropy, T-complexity, and approximate entropy) have been proven effectively applicable for the investigation of dynamical complexity in Dst time series. It has been demonstrated that as a magnetic storm approaches, there is clear evidence of significantly lower complexity in the magnetosphere. The observed higher degree of organization of the system agrees with results previously inferred from fractal analysis via estimates of the Hurst exponent based on wavelet transform. This convergence between entropies and linear analyses provides a more reliable detection of the transition from the quiet time to the storm time magnetosphere, thus showing evidence that the occurrence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. Moreover, based on the general behavior of complex system dynamics it has been recently found that Dst time series exhibit discrete scale invariance which in turn leads to log-periodic corrections to scaling that decorate the pure power law. The latter can be used for the determination of the time of occurrence of an approaching magnetic storm.
Groundwater dynamic in a coastal aquifer using statistical analysis and geochemical modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garone, A.; Battistel, M.; Barbieri, M.; Parisse, B.
2012-04-01
leaching process, calcite and aragonite are characterized by a kinetics faster than the dissolution of dolomite. A combination of statistic and geochemical techniques proved to be a reliable tool in the interpretation of hydrogeochemical dynamic of a coastal area.
The scientists' opposition to SDI: How political views affect technical analysis
Tait, G.E.
1989-01-01
This study examines the scientists' opposition to President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (1983-1989) with a focus on the relationship between the scientists' political and strategic opposition to ballistic missile defenses (BMD) and their technical doubts about BMD technologies. The study begins with a review of the scientists' increased influence in United State's national security decision making because of the development of atomic weapons. The study then examines the scientists' role in developing and promoting a theory of arms control based upon mutual societal vulnerability. Because of this theory, a large segment of the American scientific community came to believe that the development of ballistic missile defenses would destabilize the strategic balance and therefore took the lead in arguing against BMD deployments. These background chapters conclude with an analysis of the scientists' involvement in the political campaign to stop the proposed Sentinel and Safeguard Anti-Ballistic Missile defense. The study then turns to the contemporary scientific opposition to BMD deployments and the SDI research program. After examining the polls and petitions that identify the scientists opposed to SDI, the study analyzes the tactics that three scientists use in their political effort to prevent BMD deployments. Next, an examination of the political and strategic assumptions behind the scientists' opposition to BMD reveals that a belief in the arms control process and deterrence by punishment, especially Assured Destruction deterrence, with a fear of an action-reaction arms race inspires much of the contemporary opposition to BMD. Finally, the scientists' technical doubts about BMD technologies are analyzed through the prism of peer critique. These critiques show that the scientists opposed to BMD deployments us pessimistic and unrealistic assumptions to skew their technical analysis of BMD technologies.
Soares, Jitesh A.; Ellermeier, Craig D.; Altier, Craig; Lawhon, Sara D.; Adams, L. Garry; Konjufca, Vjollca; Curtiss, Roy; Slauch, James M.; Ahmer, Brian M. M.
2008-01-01
Background LuxR-type transcription factors are typically used by bacteria to determine the population density of their own species by detecting N-acylhomoserine lactones (AHLs). However, while Escherichia and Salmonella encode a LuxR-type AHL receptor, SdiA, they cannot synthesize AHLs. In vitro, it is known that SdiA can detect AHLs produced by other bacterial species. Methodology/Principal Findings In this report, we tested the hypothesis that SdiA detects the AHL-production of other bacterial species within the animal host. SdiA did not detect AHLs during the transit of Salmonella through the gastrointestinal tract of a guinea pig, a rabbit, a cow, 5 mice, 6 pigs, or 12 chickens. However, SdiA was activated during the transit of Salmonella through turtles. All turtles examined were colonized by the AHL-producing species Aeromonas hydrophila. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the normal gastrointestinal microbiota of most animal species do not produce AHLs of the correct type, in an appropriate location, or in sufficient quantities to activate SdiA. However, the results obtained with turtles represent the first demonstration of SdiA activity in animals. PMID:18665275
Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method
Tao, Yinghua; Chen, Guang-Hong; Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N.; Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A.
2014-07-15
Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937
Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method
Tao, Yinghua; Chen, Guang-Hong; Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N.; Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A.
2014-01-01
Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Hye-Mi; Lee, Myong-In; Min, Young-Mi
2016-03-01
This study aims at predicting the seasonal number of typhoons (TY) over the western North Pacific with an Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME)-based dynamical-statistical hybrid model. The hybrid model uses the statistical relationship between the number of TY during the typhoon season (July-October) and the large-scale key predictors forecasted by APCC MME for the same season. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates high prediction skill, with a correlation of 0.67 between the hindcasts and observation for 1982-2008. The cross validation from the hybrid model with individual models participating in MME indicates that there is no single model which consistently outperforms the other models in predicting typhoon number. Although the forecast skill of MME is not always the highest compared to that of each individual model, the skill of MME presents rather higher averaged correlations and small variance of correlations. Given large set of ensemble members from multi-models, a relative operating characteristic score reveals an 82 % (above-) and 78 % (below-normal) improvement for the probabilistic prediction of the number of TY. It implies that there is 82 % (78 %) probability that the forecasts can successfully discriminate between above normal (below-normal) from other years. The forecast skill of the hybrid model for the past 7 years (2002-2008) is more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. Using large set of ensemble members from multi-models, the APCC MME could provide useful deterministic and probabilistic seasonal typhoon forecasts to the end-users in particular, the residents of tropical cyclone-prone areas in the Asia-Pacific region.
Statistical Relation of Dynamic Sar Arc Characteristics To Substorms and Storms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ievenko, I. B.; Alexeyev, V. N.
It is known that mid-latitude red arcs (SAR arcs) are related to magnetic storms de- fined by variations of the Dst index. By using data of spectrophotometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga st. CGMC: 57 N; 200 E) we have shown that the occurence and/or brightness of SAR arc take place during the substorm expan- sion phase (Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, V.39, N.6,P.697, 1999). Here we use of SAR arc 700 hours registration data in 1989-2000 and carry out the correlation cou- pling analysis of 630 nm emission intensity in an arc (Im) and the velocity of the arc equatorward movement (Vm) with magnetic indices AL, Dst and ASYH. The follow- ing peculiarities of influence of the substorm and storm to the SAR arc dynamics are revealed: 1) The SAR arc intensity during the weak magnetic storm of Dst-50 nT is defined by the auroral index AL with a correlation coefficient R=-0.45-0.55. The significant rela- tion of arc intensity to Dst is not but it is essential with ASYH-index. It is assumed that the AL-dependence of Im is most likely caused by the considerable contribution of the asymmetric ring currrent arising during a substorm to the SAR arc generation. 2) In the samplings of data for the moderate storms of -50Dst-120 nT the statistically significant dependence (R=-0.5-0.7) of arc luminosity on the ring currrent intensity appears, that is in agreement with early results. In this case, the significant relation of Im to AL remains constant. 3) The velocity of SAR arc equatorward movement is of the significant dependence only on AL-index with R-0.5, that can be indicative of a conditionallity of this phenomenon by penetration of the non- stationary convection electric field to plasmasphere latitudes during a substorm. 4) The latitudinal distribu- tion of SAR arc intensity maximum location by the number of observation hours at the Yakutsk meridian is close to the normal one with a median at c=55 N (L=3) and it is of a half-width 6. It is supported that this
Statistics of initial density perturbations in heavy ion collisions and their fluid dynamic response
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Floerchinger, Stefan; Wiedemann, Urs Achim
2014-08-01
An interesting opportunity to determine thermodynamic and transport properties in more detail is to identify generic statistical properties of initial density perturbations. Here we study event-by-event fluctuations in terms of correlation functions for two models that can be solved analytically. The first assumes Gaussian fluctuations around a distribution that is fixed by the collision geometry but leads to non-Gaussian features after averaging over the reaction plane orientation at non-zero impact parameter. In this context, we derive a three-parameter extension of the commonly used Bessel-Gaussian event-by-event distribution of harmonic flow coefficients. Secondly, we study a model of N independent point sources for which connected n-point correlation functions of initial perturbations scale like 1 /N n-1. This scaling is violated for non-central collisions in a way that can be characterized by its impact parameter dependence. We discuss to what extent these are generic properties that can be expected to hold for any model of initial conditions, and how this can improve the fluid dynamical analysis of heavy ion collisions.
Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhang, Taiping
1994-01-01
A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations.
Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui
2016-06-01
Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.
The influence of isospin on both statistical and dynamical aspects of HI reactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sobotka, Lee
2003-04-01
Several aspects of how isospin can influence reactions will be discussed. From the statistical side, I will review how isospin influences the level density and, for example, residue production in fusion reactions. The most interesting aspect here is how the continuum, many-body effects and isospin conspire to make the general question of nuclear level densities at the limits of stability interesting. What is already known about the isospin dependence of nuclear level densities, what can be experimentally considered with the facilities presently available and those on the drawing board will be discussed. The status of our knowledge of how isospin influences heavy-ion reaction dynamics at intermediate energy will be presented. The theoretical argument for isospin fractionation will be reviewed as well as the some of the pit-falls in searching for this effect experimentally. The present ambiguous status of this search is reviewed. Finally, I will address the largest issue in this subfield, the possibility that flow (and other) measurements might contribute to our knowledge of the isopin dependence of the EoS. Our present uncertainty and significance of this aspect of the EoS as well as what specific measurements can be done to address this issue will be presented.
Exploring the String Landscape: The Dynamics, Statistics, and Cosmology of Parallel Worlds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ahlqvist, Stein Pontus
This dissertation explores various facets of the low-energy solutions in string theory known as the string landscape. Three separate questions are addressed - the tunneling dynamics between these vacua, the statistics of their location in moduli space, and the potential realization of slow-roll inflation in the flux potentials generated in string theory. We find that the tunneling transitions that occur between a certain class of supersymmetric vacua related to each other via monodromies around the conifold point are sensitive to the details of warping in the near-conifold regime. We also study the impact of warping on the distribution of vacua near the conifold and determine that while previous work has concluded that the conifold point acts as an accumulation point for vacua, warping highly dilutes the distribution in precisely this regime. Finally we investigate a novel form of inflation dubbed spiral inflation to see if it can be realized near the conifold point. We conclude that for our particular models, spiral inflation seems to rely on a de Sitter-like vacuum energy. As a result, whenever spiral inflation is realized, the inflation is actually driven by a vacuum energy.
Dynamical and statistical behavior of discrete combustion waves: a theoretical and numerical study.
Bharath, Naine Tarun; Rashkovskiy, Sergey A; Tewari, Surya P; Gundawar, Manoj Kumar
2013-04-01
We present a detailed theoretical and numerical study of combustion waves in a discrete one-dimensional disordered system. The distances between neighboring reaction cells were modeled with a gamma distribution. The results show that the random structure of the microheterogeneous system plays a crucial role in the dynamical and statistical behavior of the system. This is a consequence of the nonlinear interaction of the random structure of the system with the thermal wave. An analysis of the experimental data on the combustion of a gasless system (Ti + xSi) and a wide range of thermite systems was performed in view of the developed model. We have shown that the burning rate of the powder system sensitively depends on its internal structure. The present model allows for reproducing theoretically the experimental data for a wide range of pyrotechnic mixtures. We show that Arrhenius' macrokinetics at combustion of disperse systems can take place even in the absence of Arrhenius' microkinetics; it can have a purely thermal nature and be related to their heterogeneity and to the existence of threshold temperature. It is also observed that the combustion of disperse systems always occurs in the microheterogeneous mode according to the relay-race mechanism. PMID:23679470
Dynamical and statistical behavior of discrete combustion waves: A theoretical and numerical study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bharath, Naine Tarun; Rashkovskiy, Sergey A.; Tewari, Surya P.; Gundawar, Manoj Kumar
2013-04-01
We present a detailed theoretical and numerical study of combustion waves in a discrete one-dimensional disordered system. The distances between neighboring reaction cells were modeled with a gamma distribution. The results show that the random structure of the microheterogeneous system plays a crucial role in the dynamical and statistical behavior of the system. This is a consequence of the nonlinear interaction of the random structure of the system with the thermal wave. An analysis of the experimental data on the combustion of a gasless system (Ti + xSi) and a wide range of thermite systems was performed in view of the developed model. We have shown that the burning rate of the powder system sensitively depends on its internal structure. The present model allows for reproducing theoretically the experimental data for a wide range of pyrotechnic mixtures. We show that Arrhenius’ macrokinetics at combustion of disperse systems can take place even in the absence of Arrhenius’ microkinetics; it can have a purely thermal nature and be related to their heterogeneity and to the existence of threshold temperature. It is also observed that the combustion of disperse systems always occurs in the microheterogeneous mode according to the relay-race mechanism.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Callamaras, Peter
1983-01-01
This buyer's guide to seven major types of statistics software packages for microcomputers reviews Edu-Ware Statistics 3.0; Financial Planning; Speed Stat; Statistics with DAISY; Human Systems Dynamics package of Stats Plus, ANOVA II, and REGRESS II; Maxistat; and Moore-Barnes' MBC Test Construction and MBC Correlation. (MBR)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schubert, David; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim; Fink, Andreas; Massmeyer, Klaus
2016-04-01
Southeast Asia has been identified as one of the hot-spots of climate change. While the projected changes in annual precipitation are comparatively small, there is a clear tendency towards more rainfall in the dry season and an increase in extreme precipitation events. In this study, a statistical dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical Southeast Asia with focus on Vietnam. First, a recent climate (RC) simulation with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a spatial resolution of ~50 km driven by ERA-Interim (1979-2008) is performed for the tropical region of Southeast Asia. For the SDD, six weather types (WTs) are selected for Vietnam during the wet season (April - October) using a k-means cluster analysis of daily zonal wind component in 850 hPa and 200 hPa from the RC run. For each calculated weather type, simulated representatives are selected from the RC run and are then further dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 0.0625° (7 km). By using historical WT frequencies, the simulated representatives are recombined to a high resolution rainfall climatology for the recent climate. It is shown that the SDD is generally able to capture the present day climatology and that the employment of the higher resolved simulated representatives enhances the performance of the SDD. However, an overestimation of rainfall at higher altitudes is found. To obtain future climate projections, an ensemble of eight CMIP5 model members are selected to study precipitation changes. For these projections, WT frequencies of future scenarios under two representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are taken into account for the mid-term scenario (2046-2065) and the long-term scenario (2081-2100). The strongest precipitation changes are found for the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the models indicate a generally increase in precipitation amount in the wet period over Southeast
Gaffney, Inez M.
1973-01-01
CAN/SDI is Canada's national Selective Dissemination of Information Service offering a choice of nine data bases to its scientific and technical community. The system is based on central processing at the National Science Library combined with the utilization of decentralized expertise and resources for profile formulation and user education. Its greatest strength lies in its wide interdisciplinary quality. The major advantage of centralized processing of many data bases is that Canadians need learn only one method of profile formulation to access many files. A breakdown of services used confirms that a single tape service does not cover all the information requirements of most users. On the average each profile accesses approximately 1.5 data bases. Constant subscriber growth and a low cancellation rate indicate that CAN/SDI is and will continue to be an important element in Canada's information system. PMID:4740714
Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.
Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
2015-01-01
Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716
Sensitivity Properties of a Biosphere Model Based on BATS and a Statistical-Dynamical Climate Model.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Taiping
1994-06-01
A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model.The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations.
Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model
Zhang, T. )
1994-06-01
A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations. 46 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs.
Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets
Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing
2015-01-01
Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCauley, P. I.; Su, Y. N.; Schanche, N.; Evans, K. E.; Su, C.; McKillop, S.; Reeves, K. K.
2015-06-01
We present a statistical study of prominence and filament eruptions observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Several properties are recorded for 904 events that were culled from the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) and incorporated into an online catalog for general use. These characteristics include the filament and eruption type, eruption symmetry and direction, apparent twisting and writhing motions, and the presence of vertical threads and coronal cavities. Associated flares and white-light coronal mass ejections (CME) are also recorded. Total rates are given for each property along with how they differ among filament types. We also examine the kinematics of 106 limb events to characterize the distinct slow- and fast-rise phases often exhibited by filament eruptions. The average fast-rise onset height, slow-rise duration, slow-rise velocity, maximum field-of-view (FOV) velocity, and maximum FOV acceleration are 83 Mm, 4.4 hours, 2.1 km s-1, 106 km s-1, and 111 m s-2, respectively. All parameters exhibit lognormal probability distributions similar to that of CME speeds. A positive correlation between latitude and fast-rise onset height is found, which we attribute to a corresponding negative correlation in the average vertical magnetic field gradient, or decay index, estimated from potential field source surface (PFSS) extrapolations. We also find the decay index at the fast-rise onset point to be 1.1 on average, consistent with the critical instability threshold theorized for straight current channels. Finally, we explore relationships between the derived kinematics properties and apparent twisting motions. We find that events with evident twist have significantly faster CME speeds and significantly lower fast-rise onset heights, suggesting relationships between these values and flux rope helicity.
Yano, Ayaka; Nicol, Barbara; Jouanno, Elodie; Quillet, Edwige; Fostier, Alexis; Guyomard, René; Guiguen, Yann
2013-01-01
All salmonid species investigated to date have been characterized with a male heterogametic sex-determination system. However, as these species do not share any Y-chromosome conserved synteny, there remains a debate on whether they share a common master sex-determining gene. In this study, we investigated the extent of conservation and evolution of the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) master sex-determining gene, sdY (sexually dimorphic on the Y-chromosome), in 15 different species of salmonids. We found that the sdY sequence is highly conserved in all salmonids and that sdY is a male-specific Y-chromosome gene in the majority of these species. These findings demonstrate that most salmonids share a conserved sex-determining locus and also strongly suggest that sdY may be this conserved master sex-determining gene. However, in two whitefish species (subfamily Coregoninae), sdY was found both in males and females, suggesting that alternative sex-determination systems may have also evolved in this family. Based on the wide conservation of sdY as a male-specific Y-chromosome gene, efficient and easy molecular sexing techniques can now be developed that will be of great interest for studying these economically and environmentally important species. PMID:23745140
Development of a current collection loss management system for SDI homopolar power supplies
Brown, D.W.
1989-01-01
High speed, high power density current collection systems have been identified as an enabling technology required to construct homopolar power supplies to meet SDI missions. This work is part of a three-year effort directed towards the analysis, experimental verification, and prototype construction of a current collection system designed to operate continuously at 2 kA/cm{sup 2}, at a rubbing speed of 200 m/s, and with acceptable losses in a space environment. To data, no system has achieved these conditions simultaneously. This is the annual report covering the second year period of performance on DOE contract DE-AC03-86SF16518. Major areas covered include design, construction and operation of a cryogenically cooled brush test rig, design and construction of a high speed brush test rig, optimization study for homopolar machines, loss analysis of the current collection system, and an application study which defines the air-core homopolar construction necessary to achieve the goal of 80--90 kW/kg generator power density. 17 figs., 2 tabs.
A review of gas-cooled reactor concepts for SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative) applications
Marshall, A.C.
1989-08-01
We have completed a review of multimegawatt gas-cooled reactor concepts proposed for SDI applications. Our study concluded that the principal reason for considering gas-cooled reactors for burst-mode operation was the potential for significant system mass savings over closed-cycle systems if open-cycle gas-cooled operation (effluent exhausted to space) is acceptable. The principal reason for considering gas-cooled reactors for steady-state operation is that they may represent a lower technology risk than other approaches. In the review, nine gas-cooled reactor concepts were compared to identify the most promising. For burst-mode operation, the NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) derivative reactor concept emerged as a strong first choice since its performance exceeds the anticipated operational requirements and the technology has been demonstrated and is retrievable. Although the NERVA derivative concepts were determined to be the lead candidates for the Multimegawatt Steady-State (MMWSS) mode as well, their lead over the other candidates is not as great as for the burst mode. 90 refs., 2 figs., 10 tabs.
Development of a current collection loss management system for SDI homopolar power supplies
Hannan, W.F. III.
1987-01-01
High speed, high power density current collection systems have been identified as an enabling technology required to construct homopolar power supplies to meet SDI missions. This work is part of a three-year effort directed towards the analysis, experimental verification, and prototype construction of a current collection system designed to operated continuously at 2 kA/cm{sup 2}, at a rubbing speed of 200 m/s, and with acceptable losses in a space environment. To data, no system has achieved these conditions simultaneously. This is the annual report covering the first year period of performance on DOE contract DE-AC03-86SF16518. Major areas covered include design and construction of a cryogenically-cooled brush test rig, design of a high speed brush test rig, loss analysis of the current collection system, and an application study which defines the air core homopolar construction necessary to achieve the goal of 80--90 kW/kg generator power density. 15 figs.
An in-house alternative to traditional SDI services at Argonne National Laboratory
Noel, R.E.; Dominiak, R.R.
1997-02-20
Selective Dissemination of Information (SDIs) are based on automated, well-defined programs that regularly produce precise, relevant bibliographic information. Librarians have typically turned to information vendors such as Dialog or STN international to design and implement these searches for their users in business, academia, and the science community. Because Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) purchases the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Current Contents tapes (all subject areas excluding Humanities). ANL scientists enjoy the benefit of in-house developments with BASISplus software programming and no longer need to turn to outside companies for reliable SDI service. The database and its customized services are known as ACCESS (Argonne Current Contents Electronic Search Service). Through collaboration with librarians on Boolean logic and selection of terms, users can now design their own personal profiles to comb the new data, thereby avoiding service fees from outside providers. Based on the feedback from scientists, it seems that this new service can help transform the ANL distributed libraries into more efficient central functioning entities that better serve the users. One goal is to eliminate the routing of paper copies of many new journal issues to different library locations for users to browse; instead users may be expected to rely more on electronic dissemination of both table of contents and customized SDIs for new scientific and technical information.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Koparan, Timur
2016-01-01
In this study, the effect on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teachers is examined. With this aim ahead, achievement test, attitude scale for statistics and interviews were used as data collection tools. The achievement test comprises 8 problems based on statistical data, and the attitude scale comprises 13 Likert-type items. The study…
Chládek, J; Brázdil, M; Halámek, J; Plešinger, F; Jurák, P
2013-01-01
We present an off-line analysis procedure for exploring brain activity recorded from intra-cerebral electroencephalographic data (SEEG). The objective is to determine the statistical differences between different types of stimulations in the time-frequency domain. The procedure is based on computing relative signal power change and subsequent statistical analysis. An example of characteristic statistically significant event-related de/synchronization (ERD/ERS) detected across different frequency bands following different oddball stimuli is presented. The method is used for off-line functional classification of different brain areas. PMID:24109865
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holland, M. P.; Rabassa, P.; Sterk, A. E.
2016-08-01
For non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems we consider the time series of maxima along typical orbits. Using ideas based upon quantitative recurrence time statistics we prove convergence of the maxima (under suitable normalization) to an extreme value distribution, and obtain estimates on the rate of convergence. We show that our results are applicable to a range of examples, and include new results for Lorenz maps, certain partially hyperbolic systems, and non-uniformly expanding systems with sub-exponential decay of correlations. For applications where analytic results are not readily available we show how to estimate the rate of convergence to an extreme value distribution based upon numerical information of the quantitative recurrence statistics. We envisage that such information will lead to more efficient statistical parameter estimation schemes based upon the block-maxima method.
Smith, J.R.; Richardson, A.E. )
1991-09-01
Independent fission yields were measured for {sup 82}Br, {sup 96}Nb, {sup 124}Sb, and {sup 126}Sb produced by photofission of {sup 232}Th with 27-MeV peak bremsstrahlung and for {sup 136}Cs at 11, 15, and 27 MeV. Upper limits for the independent yields for {sup 86}Rb and {sup 134}Cs and mass yields for mass chains 125 and 127 were also measured for {sup 232}Th photofission at 27 MeV. Various extensions of the {ital Z}{sub {ital p}} charge-distribution model were found to give generally good agreement with experimental measurements in the asymmetric mass regions, but less satisfactory agreement in the symmetric region. A statistical charge-distribution model incorporating post-fission dynamics correlated well with experimental values in both symmetric and asymmetric regions. The statistical-dynamic model naturally predicted pairing and shell effects which were in good agreement with experimentally observed effects. One important outcome of the statistical-dynamic model calculations was the production of a linear shape on the wings of the charge-distribution curve when proximity proton transfer after scission was incorporated into the model. Such linear shapes have previously been experimentally observed without explanation.
Statistical Tools for the Interpretation of Enzootic West Nile virus Transmission Dynamics.
Caillouët, Kevin A; Robertson, Suzanne
2016-01-01
Interpretation of enzootic West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance indicators requires little advanced mathematical skill, but greatly enhances the ability of public health officials to prescribe effective WNV management tactics. Stepwise procedures for the calculation of mosquito infection rates (IR) and vector index (VI) are presented alongside statistical tools that require additional computation. A brief review of advantages and important considerations for each statistic's use is provided. PMID:27188561
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Blöschl, Günter
2015-04-01
Emerging Processes in Flood Regime Dynamics are evaluated on the basis of symmetry breaks in the spatiotemporal sensitivity of flood regimes to changes in annual precipitation and a new dynamical model of flood regime change under nonlinearly interacting landscape-climate dynamics. The spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is performed at regional scale using data from 804 catchments in Austria from 1976 to 2008. Results show that flood peaks change in a more responsive manner with spatial (regional) than with temporal (decadal) variability. Space-wise a 10% increase in precipitation leads to a 23% increase in flood peaks in Austria, whereas timewise a 10% increase in precipitation leads to an increase of just 6% in flood peaks. Looking at hydroclimatic regions in particular, catchments from stable dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal flood responses to changes in precipitation (spatiotemporal symmetry) and low landscape-climate codependence. This suggests that these regions are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those responses (symmetry breaks) and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour of the coupled system, stemming from the nonlinear interactions in the coevolving hydroclimate system. A dynamic coevolution index is then proposed relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the scale interaction between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The diagnostic assessment of coevolution is complemented by a stylised nonlinear dynamical model of landscape-climate coevolution, in which landform evolution processes take place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics), and climate adjusts in years to decades (fast
Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.
2001-04-30
Artifacts can result when reconstructing a dynamic image sequence from inconsistent single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry. The artifacts can lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying volumes of interest on the images. To overcome these biases in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view. In previous work we developed computationally efficient methods for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions [1] and their statistical uncertainties [2] from dynamic SPECT projection data, using a spatial segmentation and temporal B-splines. In addition, we studied the bias that results from modeling various orders of temporal continuity and using various time samplings [1]. In the present work, we use the methods developed in [1, 2] and Monte Carlo simulations to study the effects of the temporal modeling on the statistical variability of the reconstructed distributions.
The SdiA-regulated gene srgE encodes a type III secreted effector.
Habyarimana, Fabien; Sabag-Daigle, Anice; Ahmer, Brian M M
2014-06-01
Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is a food-borne pathogen that causes severe gastroenteritis. The ability of Salmonella to cause disease depends on two type III secretion systems (T3SSs) encoded in two distinct Salmonella pathogenicity islands, 1 and 2 (SPI1 and SPI2, respectively). S. Typhimurium encodes a solo LuxR homolog, SdiA, which can detect the acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs) produced by other bacteria and upregulate the rck operon and the srgE gene. SrgE is predicted to encode a protein of 488 residues with a coiled-coil domain between residues 345 and 382. In silico studies have provided conflicting predictions as to whether SrgE is a T3SS substrate. Therefore, in this work, we tested the hypothesis that SrgE is a T3SS effector by two methods, a β-lactamase activity assay and a split green fluorescent protein (GFP) complementation assay. SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 40, 100, 150, or 300 was indeed expressed and translocated into host cells, but SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 400 or 488 was not expressed, suggesting interference by the coiled-coil domain. Similarly, SrgE with GFP S11 fused to residue 300, but not to residue 488, was expressed and translocated into host cells. With both systems, translocation into host cells was dependent upon SPI2. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that srgE is found only within Salmonella enterica subspecies. It is found sporadically within both typhoidal and nontyphoidal serovars, although the SrgE protein sequences found within typhoidal serovars tend to cluster separately from those found in nontyphoidal serovars, suggesting functional diversification. PMID:24727228
The SdiA-Regulated Gene srgE Encodes a Type III Secreted Effector
Habyarimana, Fabien; Sabag-Daigle, Anice
2014-01-01
Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is a food-borne pathogen that causes severe gastroenteritis. The ability of Salmonella to cause disease depends on two type III secretion systems (T3SSs) encoded in two distinct Salmonella pathogenicity islands, 1 and 2 (SPI1 and SPI2, respectively). S. Typhimurium encodes a solo LuxR homolog, SdiA, which can detect the acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs) produced by other bacteria and upregulate the rck operon and the srgE gene. SrgE is predicted to encode a protein of 488 residues with a coiled-coil domain between residues 345 and 382. In silico studies have provided conflicting predictions as to whether SrgE is a T3SS substrate. Therefore, in this work, we tested the hypothesis that SrgE is a T3SS effector by two methods, a β-lactamase activity assay and a split green fluorescent protein (GFP) complementation assay. SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 40, 100, 150, or 300 was indeed expressed and translocated into host cells, but SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 400 or 488 was not expressed, suggesting interference by the coiled-coil domain. Similarly, SrgE with GFP S11 fused to residue 300, but not to residue 488, was expressed and translocated into host cells. With both systems, translocation into host cells was dependent upon SPI2. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that srgE is found only within Salmonella enterica subspecies. It is found sporadically within both typhoidal and nontyphoidal serovars, although the SrgE protein sequences found within typhoidal serovars tend to cluster separately from those found in nontyphoidal serovars, suggesting functional diversification. PMID:24727228
Argonne CW Linac (ACWL) -- Legacy from SDI and opportunities for the future
McMichael, G.E.; Yule, T.J.
1994-08-01
The former Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) invested significant resources over a 6-year period to develop and build an accelerator to demonstrate the launching of a cw beam with characteristics suitable for a space-based Neutral Particle Beam (NPD) system. This accelerator, the CWDD (Continuous Wave Deuterium Demonstrator) accelerator, was designed to accelerate 80 mA cw of D{sup {minus}} to 7.5 MeV. A considerable amount of hardware was constructed and installed in the Argonne-based facility, and major performance milestones were achieved before program funding from the Department of Defense ended in October 1993. Existing assets have been turned over to Argonne. Assets include a fully functional 200 kV cw D{sup {minus}} injector, a cw RFQ that has been tuned, leak checked and aligned, beam lines and a high-power beam stop, all installed in a shielded vault with appropriate safety and interlock systems. In addition, there are two high power (1 MW) cw rf amplifiers and all the ancillary power, cooling and control systems required for a high-power accelerator system. The SDI mission required that the CWDD accelerator structures operate at cryogenic temperatures (26 K), a requirement that placed severe limitations on operating period (CWDD would have provided 20 seconds of cw beam every 90 minutes). However, the accelerator structures were designed for full-power rf operation with water cooling and ACWL (Argonne Continuous Wave Linac), the new name for CWDD in its water-cooled, positive-ion configuration, will be able to operate continuously. Project status and achievements will be reviewed. Preliminary design of a proton conversion for the RFQ, and other proposals for turning ACWL into a testbed for cw-linac engineering, will be discussed.
Argonne CW Linac (ACWL)—legacy from SDI and opportunities for the future
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McMichael, G. E.; Yule, T. J.
1995-09-01
The former Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) invested significant resources over a 6-year period to develop and build an accelerator to demonstrate the launching of a cw beam with characteristics suitable for a space-based Neutral Particle Beam (NPB) system. This accelerator, the CWDD (Continuous Wave Deuterium Demonstrator) accelerator, was designed to accelerate 80 mA cw of D- to 7.5 MeV. A considerable amount of hardware was constructed and installed in the Argonne-based facility, and major performance milestones were achieved before program funding from the Department of Defense ended in October 1993. Existing assets have been turned over to Argonne. Assets include a fully functional 200 kV cw D- injector, a cw RFQ that has been tuned, leak checked and aligned, beam lines and a high-power beam stop, all installed in a shielded vault with appropriate safety and interlock systems. In addition, there are two high power (1 MW) cw rf amplifiers and all the ancillary power, cooling and control systems required for a high-power accelerator system. The SDI mission required that the CWDD accelerator structures operate at cryogenic temperatures (26K), a requirement that placed severe limitations on operating period (CWDD would have provided 20 seconds of cw beam every 90 minutes). However, the accelerator structures were designed for full-power rf operation with water cooling and ACWL (Argonne Continuous Wave Linac), the new name for CWDD in its water-cooled, positive-ion configuration, will be able to operate continuously. Project status and achievements will be reviewed. Preliminary design of a proton conversion for the RFQ, and other proposals for turning ACWL into a testbed for cw-linac engineering, will be discussed.
Statistical dynamics of classical systems: A self-consistent field approach
Grzetic, Douglas J. Wickham, Robert A.; Shi, An-Chang
2014-06-28
We develop a self-consistent field theory for particle dynamics by extremizing the functional integral representation of a microscopic Langevin equation with respect to the collective fields. Although our approach is general, here we formulate it in the context of polymer dynamics to highlight satisfying formal analogies with equilibrium self-consistent field theory. An exact treatment of the dynamics of a single chain in a mean force field emerges naturally via a functional Smoluchowski equation, while the time-dependent monomer density and mean force field are determined self-consistently. As a simple initial demonstration of the theory, leaving an application to polymer dynamics for future work, we examine the dynamics of trapped interacting Brownian particles. For binary particle mixtures, we observe the kinetics of phase separation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat
2016-02-01
The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lode, Axel U. J.; Chakrabarti, Barnali; Kota, Venkata K. B.
2015-09-01
We study the quantum many-body dynamics and the entropy production triggered by an interaction quench in a system of N =10 interacting identical bosons in an external one-dimensional harmonic trap. The multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree method for bosons (MCTDHB) is used for solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation at a high level of accuracy. We consider many-body entropy measures such as the Shannon information entropy, number of principal components, and occupation entropy that are computed from the time-dependent many-body basis set used in MCTDHB. These measures quantify relevant physical features such as irregular or chaotic dynamics, statistical relaxation, and thermalization. We monitor the entropy measures as a function of time and assess how they depend on the interaction strength. For larger interaction strength, the many-body information and occupation entropies approach the value predicted for the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. This implies statistical relaxation. The basis states of MCTDHB are explicitly time-dependent and optimized by the variational principle in a way that minimizes the number of significantly contributing ones. It is therefore a nontrivial fact that statistical relaxation prevails in MCTDHB computations. Moreover, we demonstrate a fundamental connection between the production of entropy, the buildup of correlations and loss of coherence in the system. Our findings imply that mean-field approaches such as the time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation cannot capture statistical relaxation and thermalization because they neglect correlations. Since the coherence and correlations are experimentally accessible, their present connection to many-body entropies can be scrutinized to detect statistical relaxation. In this work we use the recent recursive software implementation of the MCTDHB (R-MCTDHB).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vannitsem, Stéphane; Lucarini, Valerio
2016-04-01
We study the dynamics of the error in a simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean model using the formalism of covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs), which link physically-based directions of perturbations to growth/decay rates. The model is obtained via a severe truncation of quasi-geostrophic equations for the two fluids, and includes a simple yet physically meaningful representation of their dynamical/thermodynamical coupling. The model has 36 degrees of freedom, and the parameters are chosen so that a chaotic behaviour is observed. Furthermore, for some specific coupling strength a Low-Frequency Variability is developing reminiscent of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Different behaviors of the error were found depending on the specific norm chosen to measure the amplitude of the error. For the L2 norm, a super-exponential behavior is found, inducing a mean error amplification in the stable subspace described by the CLVs dominating the error dynamics within the ocean. This behavior disappears when the logarithmic norm is used, except for a few CLVs in the highly degenerate subspace defined by CLVs 6-10 for which complicate mixing and amplifications arise. Furthermore the long term dynamics of the error considerably changes when the LFV is developing in the system. When the LFV is not developing, the error saturation arises on different time scales associated to the variables under considerations, while once the LFV is present, the error along all variables of the model - and in particular of the atmosphere - is saturating on the longer time scales associated with the dynamics of the ocean. The implications of this error dynamics on the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system at short, medium and long term are discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frossard, L.; Rieder, H. E.; Ribatet, M.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Di Rocco, S.; Davison, A. C.; Peter, T.
2012-05-01
We use models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone on spatial scales to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes. The r-largest order statistics method is used for pointwise analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively). For the corresponding mean value analysis a pointwise autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) is used. The statistical models include important atmospheric covariates to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El~Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the ozone distribution, respectively described by means and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates.
Dynamic Range Adaptation to Sound Level Statistics in the Auditory Nerve
Wen, Bo; Wang, Grace I.; Dean, Isabel; Delgutte, Bertrand
2009-01-01
The auditory system operates over a vast range of sound pressure levels (100–120 dB) with nearly constant discrimination ability across most of the range, well exceeding the dynamic range of most auditory neurons (20–40 dB). Dean et al. (Nat. Neurosci. 8:1684, 2005) have reported that the dynamic range of midbrain auditory neurons adapts to the distribution of sound levels in a continuous, dynamic stimulus by shifting towards the most frequently occurring level. Here we show that dynamic range adaptation, distinct from classic firing rate adaptation, also occurs in primary auditory neurons in anesthetized cats for tone and noise stimuli. Specifically, the range of sound levels over which firing rates of auditory-nerve (AN) fibers grows rapidly with level shifts nearly linearly with the most probable levels in a dynamic sound stimulus. This dynamic range adaptation was observed for fibers with all characteristic frequencies and spontaneous discharge rates. As in the midbrain, dynamic range adaptation improved the precision of level coding by the AN fiber population for the prevailing sound levels in the stimulus. However, dynamic range adaptation in the AN was weaker than in the midbrain, and not sufficient (0.25 dB/dB on average for broadband noise) to prevent a significant degradation of the precision of level coding by the AN population above 60 dB SPL. These findings suggest that adaptive processing of sound levels first occurs in the auditory periphery and is enhanced along the auditory pathway. PMID:19889991
Static Numbers to Dynamic Statistics: Designing a Policy-Friendly Social Policy Indicator Framework
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ahn, Sang-Hoon; Choi, Young Jun; Kim, Young-Mi
2012-01-01
In line with the economic crisis and rapid socio-demographic changes, the interest in "social" and "well-being" indicators has been revived. Social indicator movements of the 1960s resulted in the establishment of social indicator statistical frameworks; that legacy has remained intact in many national governments and international organisations.…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
De Bacco, Caterina; Guggiola, Alberto; Kühn, Reimer; Paga, Pierre
2016-05-01
Rare event statistics for random walks on complex networks are investigated using the large deviation formalism. Within this formalism, rare events are realised as typical events in a suitably deformed path-ensemble, and their statistics can be studied in terms of spectral properties of a deformed Markov transition matrix. We observe two different types of phase transition in such systems: (i) rare events which are singled out for sufficiently large values of the deformation parameter may correspond to localised modes of the deformed transition matrix; (ii) ‘mode-switching transitions’ may occur as the deformation parameter is varied. Details depend on the nature of the observable for which the rare event statistics is studied, as well as on the underlying graph ensemble. In the present paper we report results on rare events statistics for path averages of random walks in Erdős–Rényi and scale free networks. Large deviation rate functions and localisation properties are studied numerically. For observables of the type considered here, we also derive an analytical approximation for the Legendre transform of the large deviation rate function, which is valid in the large connectivity limit. It is found to agree well with simulations.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
PIERCE, DOUGLAS R.
SELF-REPORTS OF INTERACTION AMONG 100 GRADUATE STUDENTS IN TWO SECTIONS OF A FIVE-WEEK SUMMER SESSION COURSE IN ELEMENTARY STATISTICS WERE ANALYZED IN AN ATTEMPT TO INCREASE UNDERSTANDING OF SOCIAL ASSOCIATION AMONG HIGHLY SPECIALIZED PERSONS. SUMMARIES WERE COMPILED FOR 1203 INSTANCES OF INTERACTION--408 OF MUTUAL STUDY-HELP, 388 OF HELP GIVEN TO…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian
2016-03-01
Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Thorne, R. M.; Bortnik, J.; Kletzing, C. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Nishimura, Y.
2015-05-01
Plasmaspheric hiss is known to play an important role in controlling the overall structure and dynamics of radiation belt electrons inside the plasmasphere. Using newly available Van Allen Probes wave data, which provide excellent coverage in the entire inner magnetosphere, we evaluate the global distribution of the hiss wave frequency spectrum and wave intensity for different levels of substorm activity. Our statistical results show that observed hiss peak frequencies are generally lower than the commonly adopted value (~550 Hz), which was in frequent use, and that the hiss wave power frequently extends below 100 Hz, particularly at larger L shells (> ~3) on the dayside during enhanced levels of substorm activity. We also compare electron pitch angle scattering rates caused by hiss using the new statistical frequency spectrum and the previously adopted Gaussian spectrum and find that the differences are up to a factor of ~5 and are dependent on energy and L shell. Moreover, the new statistical hiss wave frequency spectrum including wave power below 100 Hz leads to increased pitch angle scattering rates by a factor of ~1.5 for electrons above ~100 keV at L~5, although their effect is negligible at L ≤ 3. Consequently, we suggest that the new realistic hiss wave frequency spectrum should be incorporated into future modeling of radiation belt electron dynamics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burkholder, Michael B.; Litster, Shawn
2016-05-01
In this study, we analyze the stability of two-phase flow regimes and their transitions using chaotic and fractal statistics, and we report new measurements of dynamic two-phase pressure drop hysteresis that is related to flow regime stability and channel water content. Two-phase flow dynamics are relevant to a variety of real-world systems, and quantifying transient two-phase flow phenomena is important for efficient design. We recorded two-phase (air and water) pressure drops and flow images in a microchannel under both steady and transient conditions. Using Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents to characterize the steady-state pressure fluctuations, we develop a new, measurable regime identification criteria based on the dynamic stability of the two-phase pressure signal. We also applied a new experimental technique by continuously cycling the air flow rate to study dynamic hysteresis in two-phase pressure drops, which is separate from steady-state hysteresis and can be used to understand two-phase flow development time scales. Using recorded images of the two-phase flow, we show that the capacitive dynamic hysteresis is related to channel water content and flow regime stability. The mixed-wettability microchannel and in-channel water introduction used in this study simulate a polymer electrolyte fuel cell cathode air flow channel.
Notaro, Michael; Wang, Yi; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel
2008-01-05
A negative feedback of vegetation cover on subsequent annual precipitation is simulated for the mid-Holocene over North Africa using a fully coupled general circulation model with dynamic vegetation, FOAM-LPJ (Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model-Lund Potsdam Jena Model). By computing a vegetation feedback parameter based on lagged autocovariances, the simulated impact of North African vegetation on precipitation is statistically quantified. The feedback is also dynamically assessed through initial value ensemble experiments, in which North African grass cover is initially reduced and the climatic response analyzed. The statistical and dynamical assessments of the negative vegetation feedback agree in sign and relative magnitude for FOAM-LPJ. The negative feedback on annual precipitation largely results from a competition between bare soil evaporation and plant transpiration, with increases in the former outweighing reductions in the latter given reduced grass cover. This negative feedback weakens and eventually reverses sign over time during a transient simulation from the mid-Holocene to present. A similar, but weaker, negative feedback is identified in Community Climate System Model Version 2 (CCSM2) over North Africa for the mid-Holocene.
Muir, Ryan D; Kissick, David J; Simpson, Garth J
2012-04-23
Data from photomultiplier tubes are typically analyzed using either counting or averaging techniques, which are most accurate in the dim and bright signal limits, respectively. A statistical means of adjoining these two techniques is presented by recovering the Poisson parameter from averaged data and relating it to the statistics of binomial counting from Kissick et al. [Anal. Chem. 82, 10129 (2010)]. The point at which binomial photon counting and averaging have equal signal to noise ratios is derived. Adjoining these two techniques generates signal to noise ratios at 87% to approaching 100% of theoretical maximum across the full dynamic range of the photomultiplier tube used. The technique is demonstrated in a second harmonic generation microscope. PMID:22535131
Muir, Ryan D.; Kissick, David J.; Simpson, Garth J.
2012-01-01
Data from photomultiplier tubes are typically analyzed using either counting or averaging techniques, which are most accurate in the dim and bright signal limits, respectively. A statistical means of adjoining these two techniques is presented by recovering the Poisson parameter from averaged data and relating it to the statistics of binomial counting from Kissick et al. [Anal. Chem. 82, 10129 (2010)]. The point at which binomial photon counting and averaging have equal signal to noise ratios is derived. Adjoining these two techniques generates signal to noise ratios at 87% to approaching 100% of theoretical maximum across the full dynamic range of the photomultiplier tube used. The technique is demonstrated in a second harmonic generation microscope. PMID:22535131
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koukas, Ioannis; Koukoravas, Vasilis; Mantesi, Konstantina; Sakellari, Katerina; Xanthopoulou, Themis-Demetra; Zarkadoulas, Akis; Markonis, Yannis; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
2014-05-01
The statistical properties of over 300 different proxy records of the last two thousand years derived from the PAGES 2k database years are stochastically analysed. Analyses include estimation of their first four moments and their autocorrelation functions (ACF), as well as the determination of the presence of Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour (known also as long term persistence). The data are investigated in groups according to their proxy type and location, while their statistical properties are also compared to those of the final temperature reconstructions. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frossard, L.; Rieder, H. E.; Ribatet, M.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Di Rocco, S.; Davison, A. C.; Peter, T.
2013-01-01
We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland, the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results
Choi, Ok Ran; Lim, In Kyoung
2011-04-08
Highlights: {yields} Reduced p21 expression in senescent cells treated with DNA damaging agents. {yields} Increase of [{sup 3}H]thymidine and BrdU incorporations in DNA damaged-senescent cells. {yields} Upregulation of miR-93 expression in senescent cells in response to DSB. {yields} Failure of p53 binding to p21 promoter in senescent cells in response to DSB. {yields} Molecular mechanism of increased cancer development in aged than young individuals. -- Abstract: To answer what is a critical event for higher incidence of tumor development in old than young individuals, primary culture of human diploid fibroblasts were employed and DNA damage was induced by doxorubicin or X-ray irradiation. Response to the damage was different between young and old cells; loss of p21{sup sdi1} expression in spite of p53{sup S15} activation in old cells along with [{sup 3}H]thymidine and BrdU incorporation, but not in young cells. The phenomenon was confirmed by other tissue fibroblasts obtained from different donor ages. Induction of miR-93 expression and reduced p53 binding to p21 gene promoter account for loss of p21{sup sdi1} expression in senescent cells after DNA damage, suggesting a mechanism of in vivo carcinogenesis in aged tissue without repair arrest.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baldovin, F.; Robledo, A.
2002-10-01
We uncover the dynamics at the chaos threshold μ∞ of the logistic map and find that it consists of trajectories made of intertwined power laws that reproduce the entire period-doubling cascade that occurs for μ<μ∞. We corroborate this structure analytically via the Feigenbaum renormalization-group (RG) transformation and find that the sensitivity to initial conditions has precisely the form of a q exponential, of which we determine the q index and the q-generalized Lyapunov coefficient λq. Our results are an unequivocal validation of the applicability of the nonextensive generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics to critical points of nonlinear maps.
Janssens, Joost C A; Metzger, Kristine; Daniels, Ruth; Ptacek, Dave; Verhoeven, Tine; Habel, Lothar W; Vanderleyden, Jos; De Vos, Dirk E; De Keersmaecker, Sigrid C J
2007-01-01
N-Acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs) are molecules that are synthesized and detected by many gram-negative bacteria to monitor the population density, a phenomenon known as quorum sensing. Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is an exceptional species since it does not synthesize its own AHLs, while it does encode a LuxR homologue, SdiA, which enables this bacterium to detect AHLs that are produced by other species. To obtain more information about the specificity of the ligand binding by SdiA, we synthesized and screened a limited library of AHL analogues. We identified two classes of analogues that are strong activators of SdiA: the N-(3-oxo-acyl)-homocysteine thiolactones (3O-AHTLs) and the N-(3-oxo-acyl)-trans-2-aminocyclohexanols. To our knowledge, this is the first report of compounds (the 3O-AHTLs) that are able to activate a LuxR homologue at concentrations that are lower than the concentrations of the most active AHLs. SdiA responds with greatest sensitivity to AHTLs that have a keto modification at the third carbon atom and an acyl chain that is seven or eight carbon atoms long. The N-(3-oxo-acyl)-trans-2-aminocyclohexanols were found to be less sensitive to deactivation by lactonase and alkaline pH than the 3O-AHTLs and the AHLs are. We also examined the activity of our library with LuxR of Vibrio fischeri and identified three new inhibitors of LuxR. Finally, we performed preliminary binding experiments which suggested that SdiA binds its activators reversibly. These results increase our understanding of the specificity of the SdiA-ligand interaction, which could have uses in the development of anti-quorum-sensing-based antimicrobials. PMID:17085703
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peng, C.-K.; Yang, Albert C.-C.; Goldberger, Ary L.
2007-03-01
We recently proposed a novel approach to categorize information carried by symbolic sequences based on their usage of repetitive patterns. A simple quantitative index to measure the dissimilarity between two symbolic sequences can be defined. This information dissimilarity index, defined by our formula, is closely related to the Shannon entropy and rank order of the repetitive patterns in the symbolic sequences. Here we discuss the underlying statistical physics assumptions of this dissimilarity index. We use human cardiac interbeat interval time series and DNA sequences as examples to illustrate the applicability of this generic approach to real-world problems.