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Sample records for sdi statistical dynamic

  1. SDI: setting the record straight

    SciTech Connect

    Adelman, K.L.

    1985-01-01

    After a few introductory remarks, Mr. Adelman first discusses Soviet propaganda against SDI. He then poses and answers questions regarding the following: SDI and the ABM Treaty; SDI and US arms control objectives; and the ethics of SDI. The final portion of the address reviews US nonproliferation efforts.

  2. Statistics of football dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendes, R. S.; Malacarne, L. C.; Anteneodo, C.

    2007-06-01

    We investigate the dynamics of football matches. Our goal is to characterize statistically the temporal sequence of ball movements in this collective sport game, searching for traits of complex behavior. Data were collected over a variety of matches in South American, European and World championships throughout 2005 and 2006. We show that the statistics of ball touches presents power-law tails and can be described by q-gamma distributions. To explain such behavior we propose a model that provides information on the characteristics of football dynamics. Furthermore, we discuss the statistics of duration of out-of-play intervals, not directly related to the previous scenario.

  3. Dangers of limited SDI

    SciTech Connect

    Marsh, G.E.

    1987-03-01

    Recent efforts to redefine the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) are mostly aimed at building support for a system to defend US land-based missiles. This is thought to be a more feasible goal than President Reagan's dream of an impregnable shield to defend the US population against ballistic missiles. But a feasible idea is not necessarily a good one. While chasing the population-defense fantasy would destroy the existing arms control regime and waste the national treasure of money and talent, defending land-based missiles would be dangerous and destabilizing. Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger held fast to the idea of population defense in January, when he told the Senate Armed Services Committee that even early deployments of SDI systems that could be developed in the near future should be the first phase of a system that would protect the continent. But such statements may reflect the administration's determination to do away with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty more than its belief that population defense is a reasonable goal. The author notes that, to those longstanding problems of defense decision making, they must now add the pressures of SDI. Furthermore, whatever the motives of those who advocate redirecting SDI, it is clear that concerns about the vulnerability of land-based missiles could be addressed in more sensible ways. 5 references.

  4. SDI and industrial technology policy

    SciTech Connect

    Zegveld, W.; Enzing, C.

    1987-01-01

    The author's central thesis is that the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) program contains strong elements of industrial technology policy. They approach this thesis from the perspective of the role of government in the development of science and technology and from insight in the processes of technological innovation. They also investigate the issue of the economic consequences of simulating scientific and technological development via the military route. The study is structured in three parts. Part I discusses the SDI program, its origin, content, size, and prospects. Part II focusses on the role of government in technological development on the (meso) process of technological innovation. Part III focusses on the process of technological innovation and the economic significance of military R and D-spending.

  5. SDI CFD MODELING ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, S.

    2011-05-05

    The Savannah River Remediation (SRR) Organization requested that Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) develop a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) method to mix and blend the miscible contents of the blend tanks to ensure the contents are properly blended before they are transferred from the blend tank; such as, Tank 50H, to the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) feed tank. The work described here consists of two modeling areas. They are the mixing modeling analysis during miscible liquid blending operation, and the flow pattern analysis during transfer operation of the blended liquid. The transient CFD governing equations consisting of three momentum equations, one mass balance, two turbulence transport equations for kinetic energy and dissipation rate, and one species transport were solved by an iterative technique until the species concentrations of tank fluid were in equilibrium. The steady-state flow solutions for the entire tank fluid were used for flow pattern analysis, for velocity scaling analysis, and the initial conditions for transient blending calculations. A series of the modeling calculations were performed to estimate the blending times for various jet flow conditions, and to investigate the impact of the cooling coils on the blending time of the tank contents. The modeling results were benchmarked against the pilot scale test results. All of the flow and mixing models were performed with the nozzles installed at the mid-elevation, and parallel to the tank wall. From the CFD modeling calculations, the main results are summarized as follows: (1) The benchmark analyses for the CFD flow velocity and blending models demonstrate their consistency with Engineering Development Laboratory (EDL) and literature test results in terms of local velocity measurements and experimental observations. Thus, an application of the established criterion to SRS full scale tank will provide a better, physically-based estimate of the required mixing time, and

  6. The Evaluation of SISMAKOM (Computerized SDI Project).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    University of Science, Penang (Malaysia).

    A survey of 88 users of SISMAKOM, a computerized selective dissemination of information (SDI) and document delivery service provided by the Universiti Sains Malaysia and four other Malaysian universities, was conducted in August 1982 in order to collect data about SISMAKOM and to assess the value of a computerized SDI service in a developing…

  7. MEDLINE SDI services: how do they compare?*

    PubMed Central

    Shultz, Mary; De Groote, Sandra L.

    2003-01-01

    Introduction: Selective dissemination of information (SDI) services regularly alert users to new information on their chosen topics. This type of service can increase a user's ability to keep current and may have a positive impact on efficiency and productivity. Currently, there are many venues available where users can establish, store, and automatically run MEDLINE searches. Purpose: To describe, evaluate, and compare SDI services for MEDLINE. Resources: The following SDI services were selected for this study: PubMed Cubby, BioMail, JADE, PubCrawler, OVID, and ScienceDirect. Methodology: Identical searches were established in four of the six selected SDI services and were run on a weekly basis over a period of two months. Eight search strategies were used in each system to test performance under various search conditions. The PubMed Cubby system was used as the baseline against which the other systems were compared. Other aspects were evaluated in all six services and include ease of use, frequency of results, ability to use MeSH, ability to access and edit existing search strategies, and ability to download to a bibliographic management program. Results: Not all MEDLINE SDI services retrieve identical results, even when identical search strategies are used. This study also showed that the services vary in terms of features and functions offered. PMID:14566377

  8. SDI spinoffs: research now, standards later

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, T.K. Jr.

    1986-04-01

    A major benefit of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) its is potential for technological spinoffs. The lack of a consistent answer on the feasibility of developing an effective ballistic missile defense system may force Congress to look at the possible spinoffs in order to make a funding decision on SDI. Spinoffs have historically played an important role in providing industry with commercial applications, but there are also a number of unattractive aspects: unpredictability and possible suppression for national security reasons. Edward Teller is among those who promote X-ray lasers, while others support gamma-ray laser research. The possibility of SDI technology and spinoffs gives scientists and engineers a chance to participate in the development of new standards. 7 references.

  9. Deriving statistical closure from dynamical optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turkington, Bruce

    2015-11-01

    Turbulence theorists have traditionally deduced statistical models by generating a hierarchy of moment equations and invoking some closure rules to truncate the hierarchy. In this talk a conceptually different approach to model reduction and statistical closure will be presented, and its implications for coarse-graining fluid turbulence will be indicated. The author has developed this method in the context of nonequilibrium statistical descriptions of Hamiltonian systems with many degrees of freedom. With respect to a chosen parametric statistical model, the lack-of-fit of model paths to the full dynamics is minimized in a time-integrated, mean-squared sense. This optimal closure method is applied to coarse-grain spectrally-truncated inviscid dynamics, including the Burgers-Hopf equation and incompressible two-dimensional flow, using the means and/or variances of low modes as resolved variables. The derived reduced dynamics for these test cases contain (1) scale-dependent dissipation which is not a local eddy viscosity, (2) modified nonlinear interactions between resolved modes, and (3) coupling between the mean and variance of each resolved mode. These predictions are validated against direct numerical simulations of ensembles for the fully resolved dynamics.

  10. Operational Results of an Adaptive SDI System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sage, C. R.; Fitzwater, D. R.

    The Ames Laboratory SDI system requires a minimum of human intervention. The adaptability of the system provides two major contributions to information dissemination. (1) The user benefits proportionately from the amount of effort he expends in setting up his profile and the diligence in sending back responses. (2) The document input has only to…

  11. SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative): a policy analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Fought, S.O.

    1987-01-01

    Contents include -- Foundations of Deterrence; A Model for Stability; Analysis of SDI/Stability; Related Issues; Treatment of Implementation Factors; Historical Evolution and Trends; The Strategic Choices and Flexible Response; The Planners' Perspective; The Impact of Strategic Defense on a Strategy of Flexible Response; Synthesis.

  12. Classical and semiclassical dynamics in statistical environments with a mixed dynamical and statistical representation.

    PubMed

    Takatsuka, Kazuo; Matsumoto, Kentaro

    2016-01-21

    We present a basic theory to study real-time dynamics embedded in a large environment that is treated using a statistical method. In light of great progress in the molecular-level studies on time-resolved spectroscopies, chemical reaction dynamics, and so on, not only in the gas phase but also in condensed phases like liquid solvents and even in crowded environments in living cells, we need to bridge over a gap between statistical mechanics and microscopic real-time dynamics. For instance, an analogy to gas-phase dynamics in which molecules are driven by the gradient of the potential energy hyper-surfaces (PESs) suggests that particles in condensed phases should run on the free energy surface instead. The question is whether this anticipation is correct. To answer it, we here propose a mixed dynamics and statistical representation to treat chemical dynamics embedded in a statistical ensemble. We first define the entropy functional, which is a function of the phase-space position of the dynamical subsystem, being dressed with statistical weights from the statistical counterpart. We then consider the functionals of temperature, free energy, and chemical potential as their extensions in statistical mechanics, through which one can clarify the relationship between real-time microscopic dynamics and statistical quantities. As an illustrative example we show that molecules in the dynamical subsystem should run on the free-energy functional surface, if and only if the spatial gradients of the temperature functional are all zero. Otherwise, additional forces emerge from the gradient of the temperature functional. Numerical demonstrations are presented at the very basic level of this theory of molecular dissociation in atomic cluster solvents. PMID:26674298

  13. The origins of SDI, 1944--1983

    SciTech Connect

    Baucom, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    The most distinctive and important contribution of this new book on the Strategic Defense Initiative is that it ends where most other studies begin, with President Ronald Reagan's famous (or infamous, depending on one's perspective) March 1983 speech that introduced the Star Wars concept. In taking this approach, Donald R. Baucom - a former Air Force historian who has been the official historian who has been the official historian of the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization since May 1987 - helps to correct the common misperception that US efforts in strategic defense began and ended with the SDI. Although Baucom tells us that The Origins of SDI is a significantly revised version of an SDIO study he completed in 1989, representing his own views and not those of the SDIO, the reader should be warned that the book reads like an official history. It is often dry or too episodic and offers little that is new in the way of analysis or interpretation.

  14. Segmenting dynamic human action via statistical structure.

    PubMed

    Baldwin, Dare; Andersson, Annika; Saffran, Jenny; Meyer, Meredith

    2008-03-01

    Human social, cognitive, and linguistic functioning depends on skills for rapidly processing action. Identifying distinct acts within the dynamic motion flow is one basic component of action processing; for example, skill at segmenting action is foundational to action categorization, verb learning, and comprehension of novel action sequences. Yet little is currently known about mechanisms that may subserve action segmentation. The present research documents that adults can register statistical regularities providing clues to action segmentation. This finding provides new evidence that structural knowledge gained by mechanisms such as statistical learning can play a role in action segmentation, and highlights a striking parallel between processing of action and processing in other domains, such as language. PMID:18035346

  15. SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative): Shield or sword. Study Project

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, C.S.; Spiczak, G.R.

    1989-05-15

    The paper attempts to answer the fundamental question, is SDI an adjunct to a first strike strategy. As its criteria, it discusses Soviet and U.S. opposing views on SDI, an historical application of Mutual Assured Destruction strategy, and a discussion of Soviet and U.S. thinking on first-strike capability. President Reagan's March 1983 address on SDI is used as the backdrop to set the stage for the discussion. It is the objective of the authors to evaluate and analyze the potential impact of SDI on first strike.

  16. Controlling statistical moments of stochastic dynamical networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bielievtsov, Dmytro; Ladenbauer, Josef; Obermayer, Klaus

    2016-07-01

    We consider a general class of stochastic networks and ask which network nodes need to be controlled, and how, to stabilize and switch between desired metastable (target) states in terms of the first and second statistical moments of the system. We first show that it is sufficient to directly interfere with a subset of nodes which can be identified using information about the graph of the network only. Then we develop a suitable method for feedback control which acts on that subset of nodes and preserves the covariance structure of the desired target state. Finally, we demonstrate our theoretical results using a stochastic Hopfield network and a global brain model. Our results are applicable to a variety of (model) networks and further our understanding of the relationship between network structure and collective dynamics for the benefit of effective control.

  17. Controlling statistical moments of stochastic dynamical networks.

    PubMed

    Bielievtsov, Dmytro; Ladenbauer, Josef; Obermayer, Klaus

    2016-07-01

    We consider a general class of stochastic networks and ask which network nodes need to be controlled, and how, to stabilize and switch between desired metastable (target) states in terms of the first and second statistical moments of the system. We first show that it is sufficient to directly interfere with a subset of nodes which can be identified using information about the graph of the network only. Then we develop a suitable method for feedback control which acts on that subset of nodes and preserves the covariance structure of the desired target state. Finally, we demonstrate our theoretical results using a stochastic Hopfield network and a global brain model. Our results are applicable to a variety of (model) networks and further our understanding of the relationship between network structure and collective dynamics for the benefit of effective control. PMID:27575147

  18. Using SDI-12 with ST microelectronics MCU's

    SciTech Connect

    Saari, Alexandra; Hinzey, Shawn Adrian; Frigo, Janette Rose; Proicou, Michael Chris; Borges, Louis

    2015-09-03

    ST Microelectronics microcontrollers and processors are readily available, capable and economical processors. Unfortunately they lack a broad user base like similar offerings from Texas Instrument, Atmel, or Microchip. All of these devices could be useful in economical devices for remote sensing applications used with environmental sensing. With the increased need for environmental studies, and limited budgets, flexibility in hardware is very important. To that end, and in an effort to increase open support of ST devices, I am sharing my teams' experience in interfacing a common environmental sensor communication protocol (SDI-12) with ST devices.

  19. Investigating strategies to improve crop germination when using SDI

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As the nation's population increases and available irrigation water decreases, new technologies are being developed to maintain or increase production on fewer acres. One of these advancements has been the use of subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) on field crops. Research has shown that SDI is the m...

  20. Lost in space: SDI struggles through its sixth year

    SciTech Connect

    MacDonald, B.W.

    1989-09-01

    After six years of debate, it is clear that Congress is willing to support a robust research program for SDI, but it is also clear that Congress will not support SDI annual outlays on the order of $10 billion. Thus the policy choice is between a good research program that meshes with fiscal reality, or an inadequate and wasteful development program that continues to focus on preparing for a Phase I deployment for which the funds simply will not be available. The Bush administration so far seems trapped by its own rhetoric from coming to grips with the implications of the new SDI reality. The responsibility for getting SDI on a steadier course toward more realistic research objectives thus seems to lie with Congress in the near term. Since Congress has been reluctant to earmark SDI research funds for specific objectives, it will take a change in administration perceptions before SDI program goals can be changed away from Phase I deployment. The only likely way this could happen in the near term would be as a result of a Congress-executive branch summit agreement on SDI objectives and funding levels. In the absence of such an agreement, SDI will be sailing under ever weaker fiscal and political winds and runs the risk of finding itself becalmed, working ceaselessly toward goals that will never be fulfilled.

  1. Surface drip irrigation (SDI): Status of the technology in 2010

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), although a much smaller fraction of the microirrigated land area than surface drip irrigation, is growing at a much faster rate and is the subject of considerable research and educational efforts in the United States. This paper will discuss the growth in SDI, highl...

  2. Teachers' Use of Transnumeration in Solving Statistical Tasks with Dynamic Statistical Software

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Hollylynne S.; Kersaint, Gladis; Harper, Suzanne R.; Driskell, Shannon O.; Jones, Dusty L.; Leatham, Keith R.; Angotti, Robin L.; Adu-Gyamfi, Kwaku

    2014-01-01

    This study examined a random stratified sample (n = 62) of teachers' work across eight institutions on three tasks that utilized dynamic statistical software. We considered how teachers may utilize and develop their statistical knowledge and technological statistical knowledge when investigating a statistical task. We examined how teachers…

  3. The technology, strategy, and politics of SDI

    SciTech Connect

    Cimbala, S.J.

    1987-01-01

    The Strategic Defense Initiative to develop a ballistic missile defense (BMD) system has short- and long-range risks as well as potential benefits. For the most part, however, strategic, technological, and political issues relevant to SDI have been analyzed in isolation from one another. This collection provides a more inclusive framework for assessing the possible development and deployment of a BMD system by the U.S. or the Soviet Union. The contributors discuss the risk for arms race stability, probable reactions of the Soviet Union to any U.S. space-based defense system, and implications for the stability of extended deterrence commitments to NATO European allies. They also evaluate Soviet research and development programs in missile defense that must be considered in any extrapolation of the requirements for U.S. deterrence in the next several decades.

  4. Air Force Satellite Control Network and SDI development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleier, T.

    The Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN) represents a military, worldwide network of control centers and remote tracking sites (RTS). A relatively large and growing constellation of DOD satellites is supported. The near term and long term plans for the AFSCN are discussed, taking into account also the impact of the Space Defense Initiative (SDI) on the AFSCN. It is pointed out that the SDI adds a new dimension to the support provided by the AFSCN to the DOD satellites, because some SDI scenarios being considered include many more satellite platforms, each containing multiple kinetic energy weapons. Space-ground link sites are discussed along with AFSCN control sites, and communication between RTS and control centers. Attention is given to changing roles and responsibilities, the Satellite Test Center (STC) as an excellent site for the R and D phase of SDI development, and an operational concept for a highly proliferated weapons platforms architecture, and goals of developing more survivable satellite systems.

  5. Artificial intelligence applications in space and SDI: A survey

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fiala, Harvey E.

    1988-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to survey existing and planned Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications to show that they are sufficiently advanced for 32 percent of all space applications and SDI (Space Defense Initiative) software to be AI-based software. To best define the needs that AI can fill in space and SDI programs, this paper enumerates primary areas of research and lists generic application areas. Current and planned NASA and military space projects in AI will be reviewed. This review will be largely in the selected area of expert systems. Finally, direct applications of AI to SDI will be treated. The conclusion covers the importance of AI to space and SDI applications, and conversely, their importance to AI.

  6. Segmenting Dynamic Human Action via Statistical Structure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Dare; Andersson, Annika; Saffran, Jenny; Meyer, Meredith

    2008-01-01

    Human social, cognitive, and linguistic functioning depends on skills for rapidly processing action. Identifying distinct acts within the dynamic motion flow is one basic component of action processing; for example, skill at segmenting action is foundational to action categorization, verb learning, and comprehension of novel action sequences. Yet…

  7. Extreme Events: Dynamics, Statistics and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghil, M.

    2013-05-01

    In this talk, I will review some recent work on extreme events, their causes and consequences. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts. US GDP data used in validating the vulnerability paradox found in a Non-Equilibrium Dynamical Model (NEDyM) for studying the impact of extreme events on a dynamic economy. The paradoxical result is that natural hazards affect more strongly an economy in expansion than when it is in a recession. The connection to the macroeconomic data is given by fluctuation-dissipation theory.

  8. Dynamics and statistics of unstable quantum states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, V. V.; Zelevinsky, V. G.

    1989-11-01

    The statistical theory of spectra formulated in terms of random matrices is extended to unstable states. The energies and widths of these states are treated as real and imaginary parts of complex eigenvalues for an effective non-hermitian hamiltonian. Eigenvalue statistics are investigated under simple assumptions. If the coupling through common decay channels is weak we obtain a Wigner distribution for the level spacings and a Porter-Thomas one for the widths, with the only exception for spacings less than widths where level repulsion fades out. Meanwhile in the complex energy plane the repulsion of eigenvalues is quadratic in accordance with the T-noninvariant character of decaying systems. In the opposite case of strong coupling with the continuum, k short-lived states are formed ( k is the number of open decay channels). These states accumulate almost the whole total width, the rest of the states becoming long-lived. Such a perestroika corresponds to separation of direct processes (a nuclear analogue of Dicke coherent superradiance). At small channel number, Ericson fluctuations of the cross sections are found to be suppressed. The one-channel case is considered in detail. The joint distribution of energies and widths is obtained. The average cross sections and density of unstable states are calculated.

  9. Protein electron transfer: Dynamics and statistics.

    PubMed

    Matyushov, Dmitry V

    2013-07-14

    Electron transfer between redox proteins participating in energy chains of biology is required to proceed with high energetic efficiency, minimizing losses of redox energy to heat. Within the standard models of electron transfer, this requirement, combined with the need for unidirectional (preferably activationless) transitions, is translated into the need to minimize the reorganization energy of electron transfer. This design program is, however, unrealistic for proteins whose active sites are typically positioned close to the polar and flexible protein-water interface to allow inter-protein electron tunneling. The high flexibility of the interfacial region makes both the hydration water and the surface protein layer act as highly polar solvents. The reorganization energy, as measured by fluctuations, is not minimized, but rather maximized in this region. Natural systems in fact utilize the broad breadth of interfacial electrostatic fluctuations, but in the ways not anticipated by the standard models based on equilibrium thermodynamics. The combination of the broad spectrum of static fluctuations with their dispersive dynamics offers the mechanism of dynamical freezing (ergodicity breaking) of subsets of nuclear modes on the time of reaction/residence of the electron at a redox cofactor. The separation of time-scales of nuclear modes coupled to electron transfer allows dynamical freezing. In particular, the separation between the relaxation time of electro-elastic fluctuations of the interface and the time of conformational transitions of the protein caused by changing redox state results in dynamical freezing of the latter for sufficiently fast electron transfer. The observable consequence of this dynamical freezing is significantly different reorganization energies describing the curvature at the bottom of electron-transfer free energy surfaces (large) and the distance between their minima (Stokes shift, small). The ratio of the two reorganization energies

  10. SDI-Based Groundwater Information Interoperability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brodaric, B.; Boisvert, E.

    2007-12-01

    Though groundwater data are important inputs to hydrologic decision-making, they are highly distributed and heterogeneous, and thus difficult to access in a coordinated manner. The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) is developing an information system for coordinated groundwater data access, using the standards and technologies of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI). In mid-stage development, the system is designed to manage and disseminate data produced by GSC scientists, as well as potentially disseminate data produced by other groundwater agencies. The system involves a typical three-tiered, mediator-wrapper architecture that includes a data tier, a mediator tier, and an applications tier. At the data tier local data sources are wrapped by OGC web services (WFS, WMS), which deliver diversely structured data to the mediator tier. The mediator tier acts as: (1) a central registry for the distributed data and other services; (2) a translator of the local data to the standard data format, GroundWater Markup Language; and (3) a consistent set of OGC web services that enable users to access the distributed data as one source. The applications tier involves both GSC and third-party web applications, such as analysis tools or on-line atlases, that provide user interfaces to the system. Apart from the data format standards used to achieve schematic interoperability, the system also deploys some light-weight data content standards to move toward semantic interoperability. These content standards include the definition of common categories for datasets such as standard subject classifications and map layers. A demonstration of the working prototype will be available, as well as discussion of the architecture of the system and the impacts on interoperability. The intent of the development is to grow the system into a national enterprise with a broad range of contributors and users.

  11. Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghil, M.

    2011-12-01

    In this talk, I will review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

  12. Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghil, M.; Yiou, P.; Hallegatte, S.; Malamud, B. D.; Naveau, P.; Soloviev, A.; Friederichs, P.; Keilis-Borok, V.; Kondrashov, D.; Kossobokov, V.; Mestre, O.; Nicolis, C.; Rust, H. W.; Shebalin, P.; Vrac, M.; Witt, A.; Zaliapin, I.

    2011-05-01

    We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics. The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models. The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction. Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems. Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impacts.

  13. Statistics of dynamic speckles in application to distance measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamshilin, Alexei A.; Miridonov, Serguei V.; Sidorov, Igor S.; Semenov, Dmitry V.; Nippolainen, Ervin

    2009-03-01

    We present an analysis of statistical properties of dynamic speckles to estimate the limiting accuracy of measurements achievable in a distance sensor using spatially filtered dynamic speckles. The main reason for inaccurate measurements using dynamic speckles is their stochastic nature. It is shown that the average lifetime of dynamic speckles is the key factor defining the measurement accuracy. Main conclusions of the theoretical analysis were confirmed in an experiment carried out with a fast moving rough surface. Special attention is paid to a recently proposed range sensor using dynamic speckles generated by a fast-deflecting laser beam. It is shown that this sensor possesses the best combination of accuracy and response time.

  14. Statistics and dynamics of the perturbed universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemson, G.

    1995-09-01

    Wilson discovered the corresponding radiation field, at a temperature of roughly 3K (Penzias & Wilson, 1965). It soon appeared that this microwave background radiation was isotropic to a high degree, which conrmed the assumptions made about the homogeneity of the early Universe. At present however, we see that the Universe is no longer featureless and smooth. Starting from the smallest scales we see matter organized in structures up to very large scales: from planets to stars to stellar systems to galaxies to groups and clusters of galaxies, up to super-clusters, where clusters and galaxies are organized in the largest structures known. Somewhere during the evolution of the Universe, these structures must have developed out of the featureless, uniform sea of matter and radiation. Various different theories have been developed to explain the emergence of structure, but in this thesis I will concentrate exclusively on the most generally accepted theory, that of gravitational instability. In this theory it is assumed that in the early Universe, small fluctuations in the density were present, and these would grow under the influence of gravity towards the presently observed structures. There is actually a rather complete theory of the early stages of this process, that regime where these deviations from homogeneity are small. In that case, the inhomogeneous field may be seen as a small disturbance to the uniform model, and the standard apparatus of perturbation theory may be applied. In this thesis I investigate the later stages of this process of structure formation, where the fluctuations have grown to such a size that this 'linear' perturbation approach breaks down. There is as yet no comprehensive model describing this 'nonlinear' regime as successfully as the linear theory describes the early stages of structure formation. Instead, the problem is approached from many different directions, using different, approximate models for describing the dynamics and other

  15. Statistics and dynamics of the perturbed universe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemson, G.

    1995-09-01

    Wilson discovered the corresponding radiation field, at a temperature of roughly 3K (Penzias & Wilson, 1965). It soon appeared that this microwave background radiation was isotropic to a high degree, which conrmed the assumptions made about the homogeneity of the early Universe. At present however, we see that the Universe is no longer featureless and smooth. Starting from the smallest scales we see matter organized in structures up to very large scales: from planets to stars to stellar systems to galaxies to groups and clusters of galaxies, up to super-clusters, where clusters and galaxies are organized in the largest structures known. Somewhere during the evolution of the Universe, these structures must have developed out of the featureless, uniform sea of matter and radiation. Various different theories have been developed to explain the emergence of structure, but in this thesis I will concentrate exclusively on the most generally accepted theory, that of gravitational instability. In this theory it is assumed that in the early Universe, small fluctuations in the density were present, and these would grow under the influence of gravity towards the presently observed structures. There is actually a rather complete theory of the early stages of this process, that regime where these deviations from homogeneity are small. In that case, the inhomogeneous field may be seen as a small disturbance to the uniform model, and the standard apparatus of perturbation theory may be applied. In this thesis I investigate the later stages of this process of structure formation, where the fluctuations have grown to such a size that this 'linear' perturbation approach breaks down. There is as yet no comprehensive model describing this 'nonlinear' regime as successfully as the linear theory describes the early stages of structure formation. Instead, the problem is approached from many different directions, using different, approximate models for describing the dynamics and other

  16. Statistical coarse-graining of molecular dynamics into peridynamics.

    SciTech Connect

    Silling, Stewart Andrew; Lehoucq, Richard B.

    2007-10-01

    This paper describes an elegant statistical coarse-graining of molecular dynamics at finite temperature into peridynamics, a continuum theory. Peridynamics is an efficient alternative to molecular dynamics enabling dynamics at larger length and time scales. In direct analogy with molecular dynamics, peridynamics uses a nonlocal model of force and does not employ stress/strain relationships germane to classical continuum mechanics. In contrast with classical continuum mechanics, the peridynamic representation of a system of linear springs and masses is shown to have the same dispersion relation as the original spring-mass system.

  17. Computerized Information Service--SDI. Annual Report 1974-75.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hjerppe, Roland

    The Information and Documentation Centre of the Royal Institute of Technology Library performs research and development in information science. The two main areas of this continuing research and development programme are (1) development of a comprehensive SDI service and (2) investigations in interactive retrieval services. This annual report…

  18. SDI Considerations for North Carolina Growers and Producers

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Humid areas, such as the southeastern and midsouthern United States, have particular climate, topography, soils, cropping systems, and water sources that require special consideration when implementing a subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system. These factors are normally different enough in value or...

  19. Ames Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) System Operating Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Lloyd E.; Wegner, Waldo W.

    The Ames Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) System is an attempt to efficiently place rapidly increasing amounts of information into the hands of scientists and engineers who can exploit it. It is a computerized current awareness system designed to increase researchers' literature searching capabilities by bringing to their attention…

  20. SDI: O, what a tangled web we weave

    SciTech Connect

    Keeny, S.M. Jr.

    1993-11-01

    The ghost of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) still haunts the Pentagon. The recent relevation that the highly publicized 1984 intercept of a mock Soviet reentry vehicle (RV) was rigged - as part of a highly secret deception plan to mislead the Soviet Union - has raised questions about the integrity and wisdom of defense development and policy processes.

  1. SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative): technology, survivability, and software

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-05-01

    This report reviews the status of the various SDI technologies and system components. It analyzes the feasibility of producing dependable software of the complexity that advanced BMD systems would require. Finally, it summarizes what is now known, and unknown, about the probable survivability of such systems against concerted enemy attacks of various kinds.

  2. Soviet SDI Rhetoric: The "Evil Empire" Vision of Mikhail Gorbachev.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelley, Colleen E.

    The symbolic presence of Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) has been and continues to be the pivot point in all summitry rhetoric between the American President and Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev. To examine some of the rhetorical choices made by Gorbachev to dramatize his vision of why Ronald Reagan refuses to…

  3. Survey of Current Systems for Selective Dissemination of Information. (SDI).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Houseman, Edward M., Ed.

    Reproductions of 100 fact sheets received in response to a comprehensive survey of known and suspected Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) systems are organized into operational, pilot and planned systems. The survey form was designed to give a detailed picture of system design features, organized so that the reader can rapidly locate…

  4. Design and Installation of SDI Systems in North Carolina

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As a part of the humid Southeast, North Carolina’s climate, topography, soils, cropping systems, and water sources require special consideration when considering and implementing a subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system. This publication is not a step-by-step design manual, but it will help you in ...

  5. Statistical determination of space shuttle component dynamic magnification factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lehner, F.

    1973-01-01

    A method is presented of obtaining vibration design loads for components and brackets. Dynamic Magnification Factors from applicable Saturn/Apollo qualification, reliability, and vibroacoustic tests have been statistically formulated into design nomographs. These design nomographs have been developed for different component and bracket types, mounted on backup structure or rigidly mounted and excited by sinusoidal or random inputs. Typical nomographs are shown.

  6. Exploring Foundation Concepts in Introductory Statistics Using Dynamic Data Points

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ekol, George

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses introductory statistics students' verbal and gestural expressions as they interacted with a dynamic sketch (DS) designed using "Sketchpad" software. The DS involved numeric data points built on the number line whose values changed as the points were dragged along the number line. The study is framed on aggregate…

  7. Seasonal statistical-dynamical forecasts of droughts over Western Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Andreia; Pires, Carlos

    2015-04-01

    The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used here as a drought predictand in order to assess seasonal drought predictability over the western Iberia. Hybrid (statistical-dynamical) long-range forecasts of the drought index SPI are estimated with lead-times up to 6 months, over the period of 1987-2008. Operational forecasts of geopotential height and total precipitation from the UK Met Office operational forecasting system are considered. Past ERA-Interim reanalysis data, prior to the forecast launching, are used for the purpose of build a set of SPI predictors, integrating recent past observations. Then, a two-step hybridization procedure is adopted: in the first-step both forecasted and observational large-scale fields are subjected to a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and forecasted PCs and persistent PCs are used as predictors. The second hybridization step consists on a statistical/hybrid downscaling to the regional scale based on regression techniques, after the selection of the statistically significant predictors. The large-scale filter predictors from past observations and operational forecasts are used to downscale SPI and the advantage of combining predictors with both dynamical and statistical background in the prediction of drought conditions at different lags is evaluated. The SPI estimations and the added value of combining dynamical and statistical methods are evaluated in cross-validation mode. Results show that winter is the most predictable season, and most of the predictive power is on the large-scale fields and at the shorter lead-times. The hybridization improves forecasting drought skill in comparison to purely dynamical forecasts, since the persistence of large-scale patterns displays the main role in the long-range predictability of precipitation. These findings provide clues about the predictability of the SPI, particularly in Portugal, and may contribute to the predictability of crops yields and to some guidance on users (such

  8. Statistical method of evaluation of flip-flop dynamical parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wieczorek, P. Z.; Opalski, L. J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents statistical algorithm and measurement system for precise evaluation of flip-flop dynamical parameters in asynchronous operation. The analyzed flip-flop parameters are failure probability, MTBF and propagation delay. It is shown how these parameters depend on metastable operation of flip-flops. The numerical and hardware solutions shown in article allow for precise and reliable comparison of flip-flops. Also the analysis of influence of flip-flop electrical parameters of flip-flop electrical parameters on their metastable operation is possible with use of presented statistical method. Statistical estimation of parameters of flip-flops in which metastability occurs, seems to be more reliable than standard empirical methods of flip-flop analysis. Presented method allows for showing inaccuracies in theoretical model of metastability.

  9. Dynamics, stability, and statistics on lattices and networks

    SciTech Connect

    Livi, Roberto

    2014-07-15

    These lectures aim at surveying some dynamical models that have been widely explored in the recent scientific literature as case studies of complex dynamical evolution, emerging from the spatio-temporal organization of several coupled dynamical variables. The first message is that a suitable mathematical description of such models needs tools and concepts borrowed from the general theory of dynamical systems and from out-of-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The second message is that the overall scenario is definitely reacher than the standard problems in these fields. For instance, systems exhibiting complex unpredictable evolution do not necessarily exhibit deterministic chaotic behavior (i.e., Lyapunov chaos) as it happens for dynamical models made of a few degrees of freedom. In fact, a very large number of spatially organized dynamical variables may yield unpredictable evolution even in the absence of Lyapunov instability. Such a mechanism may emerge from the combination of spatial extension and nonlinearity. Moreover, spatial extension allows one to introduce naturally disorder, or heterogeneity of the interactions as important ingredients for complex evolution. It is worth to point out that the models discussed in these lectures share such features, despite they have been inspired by quite different physical and biological problems. Along these lectures we describe also some of the technical tools employed for the study of such models, e.g., Lyapunov stability analysis, unpredictability indicators for “stable chaos,” hydrodynamic description of transport in low spatial dimension, spectral decomposition of stochastic dynamics on directed networks, etc.

  10. Statistical energy conservation principle for inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems.

    PubMed

    Majda, Andrew J

    2015-07-21

    Understanding the complexity of anisotropic turbulent processes over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales in engineering shear turbulence as well as climate atmosphere ocean science is a grand challenge of contemporary science with important societal impact. In such inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems there is a large dimensional phase space with a large dimension of unstable directions where a large-scale ensemble mean and the turbulent fluctuations exchange energy and strongly influence each other. These complex features strongly impact practical prediction and uncertainty quantification. A systematic energy conservation principle is developed here in a Theorem that precisely accounts for the statistical energy exchange between the mean flow and the related turbulent fluctuations. This statistical energy is a sum of the energy in the mean and the trace of the covariance of the fluctuating turbulence. This result applies to general inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems including the above applications. The Theorem involves an assessment of statistical symmetries for the nonlinear interactions and a self-contained treatment is presented below. Corollary 1 and Corollary 2 illustrate the power of the method with general closed differential equalities for the statistical energy in time either exactly or with upper and lower bounds, provided that the negative symmetric dissipation matrix is diagonal in a suitable basis. Implications of the energy principle for low-order closure modeling and automatic estimates for the single point variance are discussed below. PMID:26150510

  11. Statistical energy conservation principle for inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems

    PubMed Central

    Majda, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the complexity of anisotropic turbulent processes over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales in engineering shear turbulence as well as climate atmosphere ocean science is a grand challenge of contemporary science with important societal impact. In such inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems there is a large dimensional phase space with a large dimension of unstable directions where a large-scale ensemble mean and the turbulent fluctuations exchange energy and strongly influence each other. These complex features strongly impact practical prediction and uncertainty quantification. A systematic energy conservation principle is developed here in a Theorem that precisely accounts for the statistical energy exchange between the mean flow and the related turbulent fluctuations. This statistical energy is a sum of the energy in the mean and the trace of the covariance of the fluctuating turbulence. This result applies to general inhomogeneous turbulent dynamical systems including the above applications. The Theorem involves an assessment of statistical symmetries for the nonlinear interactions and a self-contained treatment is presented below. Corollary 1 and Corollary 2 illustrate the power of the method with general closed differential equalities for the statistical energy in time either exactly or with upper and lower bounds, provided that the negative symmetric dissipation matrix is diagonal in a suitable basis. Implications of the energy principle for low-order closure modeling and automatic estimates for the single point variance are discussed below. PMID:26150510

  12. Soviet military on SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative). Professional paper

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzgerald, M.C.

    1987-08-01

    Numerous Western analysts have suggested that all American assessments of SDI should proceed not only from a consideration of American intentions, but also from the outlook of Soviet perceptions. Since 23 March 1983, the prevailing tone of Soviet military writings on SDI has been overwhelmingly negative. Myron Hedlin has concluded that this harsh reaction to a U.S. initiative still years from realization suggests both a strong concern about the ultimate impact of these plans on the strategic balance, and a perceived opportunity for scoring propaganda points. Indeed, the present review of Soviet writings since President Reagan's so-called Star Wars speech has yielded both objective Soviet concerns and regressions to psychological warfare. This, in turn, has necessitated a careful effort to separate rhetoric from more official assessments of SDI. While there has long been dispute in the West over the validity of Soviet statements, they have time and again been subsequently confirmed in Soviet hardware, exercises, and operational behavior. Some Western analysts will nonetheless contend that the Soviet statements under examination in this study are merely a commodity for export.

  13. A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James

    2013-04-01

    Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

  14. Statistical characterization of complex object structure by dynamic tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tillack, Gerd-Rüdiger; Goebbels, Jürgen; Illerhaus, Bernhard; Artemiev, Valentin; Naumov, Alexander

    2002-05-01

    Considering modern materials like reinforced plastics or metal foams the mechanical properties of the component are not determined by every single structural element like a single fiber in a composite. Moreover the ensemble mean and correlation properties of all structural elements form the mechanical properties of the component. Accordingly a statistical description of material properties on a macroscopic scale allow to characterize its mechanical behavior or aging. State of the art tomographic techniques assign a measure of material properties to a volume element. The discretization, i.e., the volume or size of a single element, is limited mainly by the physical mechanisms and the equipment used for the data acquisition. In any case the result of reconstruction yields a statistical average within the considered volume element. To evaluate the integrity of the component the determined measures have to be correlated with the mechanical properties of the component. Special reconstruction algorithms are investigated that allow the statistical description of complex object structures including its dynamics. The algorithm is based on the Kalman filter using statistical prior. The prior includes knowledge about the covariance matrix as well as a prior assumption about the probability density distribution function. The resulting algorithm is recursive yielding a quasi-optimal solution at every reconstruction step. The applicability of the developed algorithm is discussed for the investigation of a specimen made from aluminum foam.

  15. Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J., Jr.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

    2000-01-01

    Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

  16. Role of quantum statistics in multi-particle decay dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Marchewka, Avi; Granot, Er’el

    2015-04-15

    The role of quantum statistics in the decay dynamics of a multi-particle state, which is suddenly released from a confining potential, is investigated. For an initially confined double particle state, the exact dynamics is presented for both bosons and fermions. The time-evolution of the probability to measure two-particle is evaluated and some counterintuitive features are discussed. For instance, it is shown that although there is a higher chance of finding the two bosons (as oppose to fermions, and even distinguishable particles) at the initial trap region, there is a higher chance (higher than fermions) of finding them on two opposite sides of the trap as if the repulsion between bosons is higher than the repulsion between fermions. The results are demonstrated by numerical simulations and are calculated analytically in the short-time approximation. Furthermore, experimental validation is suggested.

  17. Dynamic statistical models of biological cognition: insights from communications theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Rodrick

    2014-10-01

    Maturana's cognitive perspective on the living state, Dretske's insight on how information theory constrains cognition, the Atlan/Cohen cognitive paradigm, and models of intelligence without representation, permit construction of a spectrum of dynamic necessary conditions statistical models of signal transduction, regulation, and metabolism at and across the many scales and levels of organisation of an organism and its context. Nonequilibrium critical phenomena analogous to physical phase transitions, driven by crosstalk, will be ubiquitous, representing not only signal switching, but the recruitment of underlying cognitive modules into tunable dynamic coalitions that address changing patterns of need and opportunity at all scales and levels of organisation. The models proposed here, while certainly providing much conceptual insight, should be most useful in the analysis of empirical data, much as are fitted regression equations.

  18. A whirlwind tour of statistical methods in structural dynamics.

    SciTech Connect

    Booker, J. M.

    2004-01-01

    Several statistical methods and their corresponding principles of application to structural dynamics problems will be presented. This set was chosen based upon the projects and their corresponding challenges in the Engineering Sciences & Applications (ESA) Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory and focuses on variance-based uncertainty quantification. Our structural dynamics applications are heavily involved in modeling and simulation, often with sparse data availability. In addition to models, heavy reliance is placed upon the use of expertise and experience. Beginning with principles of inference and prediction, some statistical tools for verification and validation are introduced. Among these are the principles of good experimental design for test and model computation planning, and the combination of data, models and knowledge through the use of Bayes Theorem. A brief introduction to multivariate methods and exploratory data analysis will be presented as part of understanding relationships and variation among important parameters, physical quantities of interest, measurements, inputs and outputs. Finally, the use of these methods and principles will be discussed in drawing conclusions from the validation assessment process under uncertainty.

  19. Extreme event statistics of daily rainfall: dynamical systems approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cigdem Yalcin, G.; Rabassa, Pau; Beck, Christian

    2016-04-01

    We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q≈ 1.3. We discuss possible reasons for the emergence of this power law. In contrast, the waiting time distribution between rainy days is observed to follow a near-exponential distribution. A careful investigation shows that a q-exponential with q≈ 1.05 yields the best fit of the data. A Poisson process where the rate fluctuates slightly in a superstatistical way is discussed as a possible model for this. We discuss the extreme value statistics for extreme daily rainfall, which can potentially lead to flooding. This is described by Fréchet distributions as the corresponding distributions of the amount of daily rainfall decay with a power law. Looking at extreme event statistics of waiting times between rainy days (leading to droughts for very long dry periods) we obtain from the observed near-exponential decay of waiting times extreme event statistics close to Gumbel distributions. We discuss superstatistical dynamical systems as simple models in this context.

  20. Nonextensive Statistical Mechanics: Introduction, Dynamical Foundations and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsallis, Constantino

    2003-03-01

    Many natural and artificial systems exist whose thermostatistical properties appear to be hardly tractable or just untractable within Boltzmann-Gibbes statistical mechanics. Nonextensive statistical mechanics is a generalization of the standard formalism which addresses such systems, typically characterized by long-range interactions, long-range memory, (multi)fractal structures and similar anomalies. This formalism is based on the entropic form Sq = k (1-sumi p_i^q)/(q-1) (S1 = - k sumi pi ln p_i). A brief review of the formalism as well as some illustrative applications will be presented. Finally, the a priori calculation of the entropic index q to be associated with specific systems will be exhibited, starting from the knowledge of the corresponding micorscopic or mesoscopic dynamics. This formalism yields, for nonequilibrium stationary states (e.g., metastable states) and relaxation properties of many ubiquitous systems, asymptotic power-laws, as Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics yields, for the thermal equilibrium and relaxation properties of standard systems, exponential laws. Bibliography: http://tsallis.cat.cbpf.br/biblio.htm

  1. Dynamically strained ferroelastics: Statistical behavior in elastic and plastic regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, X.; Lookman, T.; Zhao, Z.; Saxena, A.; Sun, J.; Salje, E. K. H.

    2013-03-01

    The dynamic evolution in ferroelastic crystals under external shear is explored by computer simulation of a two-dimensional model. The characteristic geometrical patterns obtained during shear deformation include dynamic tweed in the elastic regime as well as interpenetrating needle domains in the plastic regime. As a result, the statistics of jerk energy differ in the elastic and plastic regimes. In the elastic regime the distributions of jerk energy are sensitive to temperature and initial configurations. However, in the plastic regime the jerk distributions are rather robust and do not depend much on the details of the configurations, although the geometrical pattern formed after yield is strongly influenced by the elastic constants of the materials and the configurations we used. Specifically, for all geometrical configurations we studied, the energy distribution of jerks shows a power-law noise pattern P(E)˜E-(γ-1)(γ-1=1.3-2) at low temperatures and a Vogel-Fulcher distribution P(E) ˜ exp-(E/E0) at high temperatures. More complex behavior occurs at the crossover between these two regimes where our simulated jerk distributions are very well described by a generalized Poisson distributions P(E)˜E-(γ-1) exp-(E/E0)n with n = 0.4-0.5 and γ-1 ≈ 0 (Kohlrausch law). The geometrical mechanisms for the evolution of the ferroelastic microstructure under strain deformation remain similar in all thermal regimes, whereas their thermodynamic behavior differs dramatically: on heating, from power-law statistics via the Kohlrausch law to a Vogel-Fulcher law. There is hence no simple way to predict the local evolution of the twin microstructure from just the observed statistical behavior of a ferroelastic crystal. It is shown that the Poisson distribution is a convenient way to describe the crossover behavior contained in all the experimental data without recourse to specific scaling functions or temperature-dependent cutoff lengths.

  2. Moments of probable seas: statistical dynamics of Planet Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holloway, Greg

    The ocean is too big. From the scale of planetary radius to scales of turbulent microstructure, the range of length scales is 109. Likewise for time scales. Classical geophysical fluid dynamics does not have an apparatus for dealing with such complexity, while `brute force' computing on the most powerful supercomputers, extant or presently foreseen, barely scratches this complexity. Yet the everywhere-swirling-churning ocean interacts unpredictably in climate history and climate future - against which we attempt to devise planetary stewardship. Can we better take into account the unpredictability of oceans to improve upon present ocean/climate forecasting? What to do? First, recognize that our goal is to comprehend probabilities of possible oceans. Questions we would ask are posed as moments (expectations). Then the dynamical goal is clear: we seek equations of motion of moments of probable oceans. Classical fluid mechanics offers part of the answer but fails to recognize statistical dynamical aspects (missing the arrow of time as past==>future). At probabilities of oceans, the missing physics emerges: moments are forced by gradients of entropy with respect to moments. Time regains its arrow, and first (simplest) approximations to entropy-gradient forces enhance the fidelity of ocean theories and practical models.

  3. Forecasting: it is not about statistics, it is about dynamics.

    PubMed

    Judd, Kevin; Stemler, Thomas

    2010-01-13

    In 1963, the mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz published a paper (Lorenz 1963 J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141) that changed the way scientists think about the prediction of geophysical systems, by introducing the ideas of chaos, attractors, sensitivity to initial conditions and the limitations to forecasting nonlinear systems. Three years earlier, the mathematician and engineer Rudolf Kalman had published a paper (Kalman 1960 Trans. ASME Ser. D, J. Basic Eng. 82, 35-45) that changed the way engineers thought about prediction of electronic and mechanical systems. Ironically, in recent years, geophysicists have become increasingly interested in Kalman filters, whereas engineers have become increasingly interested in chaos. It is argued that more often than not the tracking and forecasting of nonlinear systems has more to do with the nonlinear dynamics that Lorenz considered than it has to do with statistics that Kalman considered. A position with which both Lorenz and Kalman would appear to agree. PMID:19948555

  4. Managing Performance Analysis with Dynamic Statistical Projection Pursuit

    SciTech Connect

    Vetter, J.S.; Reed, D.A.

    2000-05-22

    Computer systems and applications are growing more complex. Consequently, performance analysis has become more difficult due to the complex, transient interrelationships among runtime components. To diagnose these types of performance issues, developers must use detailed instrumentation to capture a large number of performance metrics. Unfortunately, this instrumentation may actually influence the performance analysis, leading the developer to an ambiguous conclusion. In this paper, we introduce a technique for focusing a performance analysis on interesting performance metrics. This technique, called dynamic statistical projection pursuit, identifies interesting performance metrics that the monitoring system should capture across some number of processors. By reducing the number of performance metrics, projection pursuit can limit the impact of instrumentation on the performance of the target system and can reduce the volume of performance data.

  5. Statistical work-energy theorems in deterministic dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Chang Sub

    2015-07-01

    We theoretically explore the Bochkov-Kuzovlev-Jarzynski-Crooks work theorems in a finite system subject to external control, which is coupled to a heat reservoir. We first elaborate the mechanical energy balance between the system and the surrounding reservoir and then proceed to formulate its statistical counterpart under the general nonequilibrium conditions. Consequently, a consistency condition is derived, underpinning the nonequilibrium equalities, both in the framework of the system-centric and nonautonomous Hamiltonian pictures, and its utility is examined in a few examples. Also, we elucidate that the symmetric fluctuation associated with forward and backward manipulation of the nonequilibrium work is contingent on time-reversal invariance of the underlying mesoscopic dynamics.

  6. Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) research at USDA-ARS in Bushland, TX

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Producers in the Texas High Plains have recently adopted subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) at unprecedented rates in response to drought, declining water resources from the Ogallala Aquifer, and increasing energy costs to pump groundwater. However, SDI has much greater capital and maintenance require...

  7. SDI Citation Checking as a Measure of the Performance of Library Document Delivery Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bourne, Charles P.; Robinson, Jo.

    Document delivery support for selective dissemination of information (SDI) services provided by the Center for Information Services, University of California at Los Angeles, was measured by the following: (1) Obtaining copies of all steady-state SDI searches from Biological Abstracts'"BA Previews" data base delivered to the University of…

  8. Microform Informing: Use of DIALOG SDI to Produce a Microfiche Announcement Bulletin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowe, Gladys E.

    1984-01-01

    Describes use of selective dissemination of information (SDI) feature on DIALOG at Sandia Technical Library to produce bulletin announcing library acquisitions of technical reports in microfiche. Microfiche acquisition, developing profile, assembling profile output, costs, and suggestions for improvement are highlighted. Examples of SDI profiles…

  9. Evaluation of the Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) Program for the Aerospace Materials Information Center.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scheffler, F. L.; March, J. F.

    The Aerospace Materials Information Center (AMIC) Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) program was evaluated by an interview technique after one year of operation. The data base for the SDI consists of the periodic document index records input to the AMIC system. The users are 63 engineers, scientists, and technical administrators at the…

  10. Statistical light-mode dynamics of multipulse passive mode locking.

    PubMed

    Weill, Rafi; Well, Rafi; Vodonos, Boris; Gordon, Ariel; Gat, Omri; Fischer, Baruch

    2007-09-01

    We study the multipulse formation in passive mode locking in the framework of the statistical light-mode dynamics theory. It is a many-body theory that treats the complex many-mode laser system by statistical mechanics. We give a detailed theory and experimental verification for the important case of multiple-pulse formation in the laser cavity. We follow and extend our former work on the subject. We give a detailed analysis with a rigorous calculation of the partition function, the free energy, and the order parameter in the coarse-graining method within the mean-field theory that is exact in the light-mode system. The outcome is a comprehensive picture of multipulse formation and annihilation, pulse after pulse, in an almost quantized manner, as the noise ("temperature") or the light power is varied. We obtain the phase diagram of the system, showing a series of first-order phase transitions, each belonging to a different number of pulses. We also study the hysteresis behavior, typical for such thermodynamic systems. We elaborate on the role of the saturable absorber structure in determining the multipulse formation. The theoretical results are compared to experimental measurements that we obtained with mode-locked fiber lasers, and we find an excellent agreement. PMID:17930204

  11. OPEN PROBLEM: Orbits' statistics in chaotic dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, V.

    2008-07-01

    This paper shows how the measurement of the stochasticity degree of a finite sequence of real numbers, published by Kolmogorov in Italian in a journal of insurances' statistics, can be usefully applied to measure the objective stochasticity degree of sequences, originating from dynamical systems theory and from number theory. Namely, whenever the value of Kolmogorov's stochasticity parameter of a given sequence of numbers is too small (or too big), one may conclude that the conjecture describing this sequence as a sample of independent values of a random variables is highly improbable. Kolmogorov used this strategy fighting (in a paper in 'Doklady', 1940) against Lysenko, who had tried to disprove the classical genetics' law of Mendel experimentally. Calculating his stochasticity parameter value for the numbers from Lysenko's experiment reports, Kolmogorov deduced, that, while these numbers were different from the exact fulfilment of Mendel's 3 : 1 law, any smaller deviation would be a manifestation of the report's number falsification. The calculation of the values of the stochasticity parameter would be useful for many other generators of pseudorandom numbers and for many other chaotically looking statistics, including even the prime numbers distribution (discussed in this paper as an example).

  12. Vegetation patchiness: Pareto statistics, cluster dynamics and desertification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shnerb, N. M.

    2009-04-01

    Recent studies [1-4] of cluster distribution of vegetation in the dryland revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern formation based on positive feedback. We show that this self-organized criticality is a manifestation of the law of proportion effec: mapping the stochastic model to a Markov birth-death process, the transition rates are shown to scale linearly with cluster size. This mapping provides a connection between patch statistics and the dynamics of the ecosystem; the "first passage time" for different colonies emerges as a powerful tool that discriminates between endogenous and exogenous clustering mechanisms. Imminent catastrophic shifts (like desertification) manifest themselves in a drastic change of the stability properties of spatial colonies, as the chance of a cluster to disappear depends logarithmically, rather than linearly, on its size. [1] Scanlon et. al., Nature 449, 209212 [2007]. [2] Kefi et. al., Nature 449, 213217 [2007]. [3] Sole R., Nature 449, p. 151 [2007]. [4] Vandermeer et. al., Nature 451, p. 457 [2008].

  13. A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Paloski, William H.

    2002-01-01

    Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

  14. Statistical and dynamical remastering of classic exoplanet systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Benjamin Earl

    The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. In this dissertation, I will review our efforts to improve the statistical analyses of radial velocity (RV) data and their applications to some renown, dynamically complex exoplanet system. In the first project (Chapters 2 and 4), we develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) algorithm to tackle the aforementioned difficult aspects of data analysis. We test the robustness of the algorithm in regards to the number of modeled planets (model dimensionality) and increasing dynamical strength. We apply RUN DMC to a couple classic multi-planet systems and one highly debated system from radial velocity surveys. In the second project (Chapter 5), we analyze RV data of 55 Cancri, a wide binary system known to harbor five planetary orbiting the primary. We find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet to enter the stellar photosphere through its periastron passage. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50+/-6 10 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. In the third project (Chapters 3, 4, 6), we analyze RV data of Gliese 876, a four planet system with three participating in a multi-body resonance, i.e. a Laplace resonance. From a combined observational and statistical analysis computing Bayes factors, we find a four-planet model is favored over one with three-planets. Conditioned on this preferred model, we meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital

  15. Particle bed reactor central to SDI nuclear rocket project

    SciTech Connect

    Asker, J.R.

    1991-04-01

    A classified SDI project designated 'Timberwind' and funded with an estimated $7-8 billion over the project's life is charged with the development and flight testing of nuclear reactor-powered rockets. Timberwind's novel 'particle-bed reactor' technology will employ small pellets of reactor fuel to heat a low molecular weight working fluid, such as hydrogen. The fuel pellets would be 0.5 mm in diameter and may be composed of a kernel of fissionable U together with a carbon alloy, coated by layers of carbon and a sealant. A covering of zirconium carbide would prevent chemical degradation of the pellets by the hydrogen working fluid. Performace projection comparisons are conducted for Timberwind, an advanced Atlas-Centaur, and an advanced Titan launch vehicle.

  16. A Statistical Model for In Vivo Neuronal Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Surace, Simone Carlo; Pfister, Jean-Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Single neuron models have a long tradition in computational neuroscience. Detailed biophysical models such as the Hodgkin-Huxley model as well as simplified neuron models such as the class of integrate-and-fire models relate the input current to the membrane potential of the neuron. Those types of models have been extensively fitted to in vitro data where the input current is controlled. Those models are however of little use when it comes to characterize intracellular in vivo recordings since the input to the neuron is not known. Here we propose a novel single neuron model that characterizes the statistical properties of in vivo recordings. More specifically, we propose a stochastic process where the subthreshold membrane potential follows a Gaussian process and the spike emission intensity depends nonlinearly on the membrane potential as well as the spiking history. We first show that the model has a rich dynamical repertoire since it can capture arbitrary subthreshold autocovariance functions, firing-rate adaptations as well as arbitrary shapes of the action potential. We then show that this model can be efficiently fitted to data without overfitting. We finally show that this model can be used to characterize and therefore precisely compare various intracellular in vivo recordings from different animals and experimental conditions. PMID:26571371

  17. Modeling Insurgent Dynamics Including Heterogeneity. A Statistical Physics Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Neil F.; Manrique, Pedro; Hui, Pak Ming

    2013-05-01

    Despite the myriad complexities inherent in human conflict, a common pattern has been identified across a wide range of modern insurgencies and terrorist campaigns involving the severity of individual events—namely an approximate power-law x - α with exponent α≈2.5. We recently proposed a simple toy model to explain this finding, built around the reported loose and transient nature of operational cells of insurgents or terrorists. Although it reproduces the 2.5 power-law, this toy model assumes every actor is identical. Here we generalize this toy model to incorporate individual heterogeneity while retaining the model's analytic solvability. In the case of kinship or team rules guiding the cell dynamics, we find that this 2.5 analytic result persists—however an interesting new phase transition emerges whereby this cell distribution undergoes a transition to a phase in which the individuals become isolated and hence all the cells have spontaneously disintegrated. Apart from extending our understanding of the empirical 2.5 result for insurgencies and terrorism, this work illustrates how other statistical physics models of human grouping might usefully be generalized in order to explore the effect of diverse human social, cultural or behavioral traits.

  18. New Statistical Learning Methods for Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Ying-Qi; Zeng, Donglin; Laber, Eric B.; Kosorok, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequential decision rules for individual patients that can adapt over time to an evolving illness. The goal is to accommodate heterogeneity among patients and find the DTR which will produce the best long term outcome if implemented. We introduce two new statistical learning methods for estimating the optimal DTR, termed backward outcome weighted learning (BOWL), and simultaneous outcome weighted learning (SOWL). These approaches convert individualized treatment selection into an either sequential or simultaneous classification problem, and can thus be applied by modifying existing machine learning techniques. The proposed methods are based on directly maximizing over all DTRs a nonparametric estimator of the expected long-term outcome; this is fundamentally different than regression-based methods, for example Q-learning, which indirectly attempt such maximization and rely heavily on the correctness of postulated regression models. We prove that the resulting rules are consistent, and provide finite sample bounds for the errors using the estimated rules. Simulation results suggest the proposed methods produce superior DTRs compared with Q-learning especially in small samples. We illustrate the methods using data from a clinical trial for smoking cessation. PMID:26236062

  19. Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schweikhard, W. G.; Chen, Y. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

  20. Dynamical analogy between economical crisis and earthquake dynamics within the nonextensive statistical mechanics framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potirakis, Stelios M.; Zitis, Pavlos I.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

    2013-07-01

    The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. Several authors have suggested that earthquake dynamics and the dynamics of economic (financial) systems can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up with these different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy exists between a financial crisis (in the form of share or index price collapse) and a single earthquake. We also investigate the existence of such an analogy by means of scale-free statistics (the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of event sizes). We show that the populations of: (i) fracto-electromagnetic events rooted in the activation of a single fault, emerging prior to a significant earthquake, (ii) the trade volume events of different shares/economic indices, prior to a collapse, and (iii) the price fluctuation (considered as the difference of maximum minus minimum price within a day) events of different shares/economic indices, prior to a collapse, follow both the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar parameter values. The obtained results imply the existence of a dynamic analogy between earthquakes and economic crises, which moreover follow the dynamics of seizures, magnetic storms and solar flares.

  1. Comparison of grain sorghum, soybean, and cotton production under spray, LEPA, and SDI

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Crop production was compared under subsurface drip irrigation (SDI), low energy precision applicators (LEPA), low elevation spray applicators (LESA), and mid elevation spray applicators (MESA) at the USDA-Agricultural Research Service Conservation and Production Research Laboratory, Bushland, Tex., ...

  2. Dynamical instability and statistical behaviour of N-body systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cipriani, Piero; Di Bari, Maria

    1998-12-01

    , obtaining some new insights into known outcomes and also some new results The comparative analysis of the FPU chain and the gravitational N-body system allows us to suggest a new definition of strong stochasticity, for any DS. The generalization of the concept of dynamical time-scale, tD, is at the basis of this new criterion. We derive for both the mdf systems considered the ( N, ɛ)-dependence of tD (ɛ being the specific energy) of the system. In light of this, the results obtained (Cerruti-Sola and Pettini, 1995), indeed turn out to be reliable, the perplexity there raised originating from the neglected N-dependence of tD, and not to an excessive degree of approximation in the averaged equations used. This points out also the peculiarities of gravitationally bound systems, which are always in a regime of strong instability; the dimensionless quantity L1 = γ1 · tD [γ 1 is the maximal Lyapunov Characteristic Number (LCN)] being always positive and independent of ɛ, as it happens for the FPU chain only above the strong stochasticity threshold (SST). The numerical checks on the analytical estimates about the ( N, ɛ)-dependence of GDI's, allow us to single out their scaling laws, which support our claim that, for N ≫ 1, the probability of finding a negative value of Ricci curvature is practically negligible, always for the FPU chain, whereas in the case of the Gravitational N-body system, this is certainly true when the virial equilibrium has been attained. The strong stochasticity of the latter DS is clearly due to the large amplitude of curvature fluctuations. To prove the positivity of Ricci curvature, we need to discuss the pathologies of mathematical Newtonian interaction, which have some implications also on the ergodicity of the GDI's for this DS. We discuss the Statistical Mechanical properties of gravity, arguing how they are related to its long range nature rather than to its short scale divergencies. The N-scaling behaviour of the single terms entering the

  3. Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches.

    PubMed

    Eisenberg, Marisa C; Kujbida, Gregory; Tuite, Ashleigh R; Fisman, David N; Tien, Joseph H

    2013-12-01

    Haiti has been in the midst of a cholera epidemic since October 2010. Rainfall is thought to be associated with cholera here, but this relationship has only begun to be quantitatively examined. In this paper, we quantitatively examine the link between rainfall and cholera in Haiti for several different settings (including urban, rural, and displaced person camps) and spatial scales, using a combination of statistical and dynamic models. Statistical analysis of the lagged relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence was conducted using case crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models. Dynamic models consisted of compartmental differential equation models including direct (fast) and indirect (delayed) disease transmission, where indirect transmission was forced by empirical rainfall data. Data sources include cholera case and hospitalization time series from the Haitian Ministry of Public Health, the United Nations Water, Sanitation and Health Cluster, International Organization for Migration, and Hôpital Albert Schweitzer. Rainfall data was obtained from rain gauges from the U.S. Geological Survey and Haiti Regeneration Initiative, and remote sensing rainfall data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. A strong relationship between rainfall and cholera was found for all spatial scales and locations examined. Increased rainfall was significantly correlated with increased cholera incidence 4-7 days later. Forcing the dynamic models with rainfall data resulted in good fits to the cholera case data, and rainfall-based predictions from the dynamic models closely matched observed cholera cases. These models provide a tool for planning and managing the epidemic as it continues. PMID:24267876

  4. Statistics

    Cancer.gov

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  5. Statistical Anomaly Detection for Monitoring of Human Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamiya, K.; Fuse, T.

    2015-05-01

    Understanding of human dynamics has drawn attention to various areas. Due to the wide spread of positioning technologies that use GPS or public Wi-Fi, location information can be obtained with high spatial-temporal resolution as well as at low cost. By collecting set of individual location information in real time, monitoring of human dynamics is recently considered possible and is expected to lead to dynamic traffic control in the future. Although this monitoring focuses on detecting anomalous states of human dynamics, anomaly detection methods are developed ad hoc and not fully systematized. This research aims to define an anomaly detection problem of the human dynamics monitoring with gridded population data and develop an anomaly detection method based on the definition. According to the result of a review we have comprehensively conducted, we discussed the characteristics of the anomaly detection of human dynamics monitoring and categorized our problem to a semi-supervised anomaly detection problem that detects contextual anomalies behind time-series data. We developed an anomaly detection method based on a sticky HDP-HMM, which is able to estimate the number of hidden states according to input data. Results of the experiment with synthetic data showed that our proposed method has good fundamental performance with respect to the detection rate. Through the experiment with real gridded population data, an anomaly was detected when and where an actual social event had occurred.

  6. Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crooks, Gavin E.; Sivak, David A.

    2011-06-01

    Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen-Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Rényi divergence.

  7. Measures of trajectory ensemble disparity in nonequilibrium statistical dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Crooks, Gavin; Sivak, David

    2011-06-03

    Many interesting divergence measures between conjugate ensembles of nonequilibrium trajectories can be experimentally determined from the work distribution of the process. Herein, we review the statistical and physical significance of several of these measures, in particular the relative entropy (dissipation), Jeffreys divergence (hysteresis), Jensen-Shannon divergence (time-asymmetry), Chernoff divergence (work cumulant generating function), and Renyi divergence.

  8. SdiA Aids Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli Carriage by Cattle Fed a Forage or Grain Diet

    PubMed Central

    Sheng, Haiqing; Nguyen, Y. N.

    2013-01-01

    Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) causes hemorrhagic colitis and life-threatening complications. The main reservoirs for EHEC are healthy ruminants. We reported that SdiA senses acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs) in the bovine rumen to activate expression of the glutamate acid resistance (gad) genes priming EHEC's acid resistance before they pass into the acidic abomasum. Conversely, SdiA represses expression of the locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE) genes, whose expression is not required for bacterial survival in the rumen but is necessary for efficient colonization at the rectoanal junction (RAJ) mucosa. Our previous studies show that SdiA-dependent regulation was necessary for efficient EHEC colonization of cattle fed a grain diet. Here, we compared the SdiA role in EHEC colonization of cattle fed a forage hay diet. We detected AHLs in the rumen of cattle fed a hay diet, and these AHLs activated gad gene expression in an SdiA-dependent manner. The rumen fluid and fecal samples from hay-fed cattle were near neutrality, while the same digesta samples from grain-fed animals were acidic. Cattle fed either grain or hay and challenged with EHEC orally carried the bacteria similarly. EHEC was cleared from the rumen within days and from the RAJ mucosa after approximately one month. In competition trials, where animals were challenged with both wild-type and SdiA deletion mutant bacteria, diet did not affect the outcome that the wild-type strain was better able to persist and colonize. However, the wild-type strain had a greater advantage over the SdiA deletion mutant at the RAJ mucosa among cattle fed the grain diet. PMID:23836826

  9. Statistical analysis of nanoparticle dosing in a dynamic cellular system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Summers, Huw D.; Rees, Paul; Holton, Mark D.; Rowan Brown, M.; Chappell, Sally C.; Smith, Paul J.; Errington, Rachel J.

    2011-03-01

    The delivery of nanoparticles into cells is important in therapeutic applications and in nanotoxicology. Nanoparticles are generally targeted to receptors on the surfaces of cells and internalized into endosomes by endocytosis, but the kinetics of the process and the way in which cell division redistributes the particles remain unclear. Here we show that the chance of success or failure of nanoparticle uptake and inheritance is random. Statistical analysis of nanoparticle-loaded endosomes indicates that particle capture is described by an over-dispersed Poisson probability distribution that is consistent with heterogeneous adsorption and internalization. Partitioning of nanoparticles in cell division is random and asymmetric, following a binomial distribution with mean probability of 0.52-0.72. These results show that cellular targeting of nanoparticles is inherently imprecise due to the randomness of nature at the molecular scale, and the statistical framework offers a way to predict nanoparticle dosage for therapy and for the study of nanotoxins.

  10. Statistical analysis of modeling error in structural dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, J. D.

    1990-01-01

    The paper presents a generic statistical model of the (total) modeling error for conventional space structures in their launch configuration. Modeling error is defined as the difference between analytical prediction and experimental measurement. It is represented by the differences between predicted and measured real eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Comparisons are made between pre-test and post-test models. Total modeling error is then subdivided into measurement error, experimental error and 'pure' modeling error, and comparisons made between measurement error and total modeling error. The generic statistical model presented in this paper is based on the first four global (primary structure) modes of four different structures belonging to the generic category of Conventional Space Structures (specifically excluding large truss-type space structures). As such, it may be used to evaluate the uncertainty of predicted mode shapes and frequencies, sinusoidal response, or the transient response of other structures belonging to the same generic category.

  11. Statistical analysis of nanoparticle dosing in a dynamic cellular system.

    PubMed

    Summers, Huw D; Rees, Paul; Holton, Mark D; Brown, M Rowan; Chappell, Sally C; Smith, Paul J; Errington, Rachel J

    2011-03-01

    The delivery of nanoparticles into cells is important in therapeutic applications and in nanotoxicology. Nanoparticles are generally targeted to receptors on the surfaces of cells and internalized into endosomes by endocytosis, but the kinetics of the process and the way in which cell division redistributes the particles remain unclear. Here we show that the chance of success or failure of nanoparticle uptake and inheritance is random. Statistical analysis of nanoparticle-loaded endosomes indicates that particle capture is described by an over-dispersed Poisson probability distribution that is consistent with heterogeneous adsorption and internalization. Partitioning of nanoparticles in cell division is random and asymmetric, following a binomial distribution with mean probability of 0.52-0.72. These results show that cellular targeting of nanoparticles is inherently imprecise due to the randomness of nature at the molecular scale, and the statistical framework offers a way to predict nanoparticle dosage for therapy and for the study of nanotoxins. PMID:21258333

  12. New Dynamical-Statistical Techniques for Wind Power Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stathopoulos, C.; Kaperoni, A.; Galanis, G.; Kallos, G.

    2012-04-01

    The increased use of renewable energy sources, and especially of wind power, has revealed the significance of accurate environmental and wind power predictions over wind farms that critically affect the integration of the produced power in the general grid. This issue is studied in the present paper by means of high resolution physical and statistical models. Two numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems namely SKIRON and RAMS are used to simulate the flow characteristics in selected wind farms in Greece. The NWP model output is post-processed by utilizing Kalman and Kolmogorov statistics in order to remove systematic errors. Modeled wind predictions in combination with available on-site observations are used for estimation of the wind power potential by utilizing a variety of statistical power prediction models based on non-linear and hyperbolic functions. The obtained results reveal the strong dependence of the forecasts uncertainty on the wind variation, the limited influence of previously recorded power values and the advantages that nonlinear - non polynomial functions could have in the successful control of power curve characteristics. This methodology is developed at the framework of the FP7 projects WAUDIT and MARINA PLATFORM.

  13. Development and Evaluation of a Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walton, Daniel Burton

    Regional climate change studies usually rely on downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output in order to resolve important fine-scale features and processes that govern local climate. Previous efforts have used one of two techniques: (1) dynamical downscaling, in which a regional climate model is forced at the boundaries by GCM output, or (2) statistical downscaling, which employs historical empirical relationships to go from coarse to fine resolution. Studies using these methods have been criticized because they either dynamical downscaled only a few GCMs, or used statistical downscaling on an ensemble of GCMs, but missed important dynamical effects in the climate change signal. This study describes the development and evaluation of a hybrid dynamical-statstical downscaling method that utilizes aspects of both dynamical and statistical downscaling to address these concerns. The first step of the hybrid method is to use dynamical downscaling to understand the most important physical processes that contribute to the climate change signal in the region of interest. Then a statistical model is built based on the patterns and relationships identified from dynamical downscaling. This statistical model can be used to downscale an entire ensemble of GCMs quickly and efficiently. The hybrid method is first applied to a domain covering Los Angeles Region to generate projections of temperature change between the 2041-2060 and 1981-2000 periods for 32 CMIP5 GCMs. The hybrid method is also applied to a larger region covering all of California and the adjacent ocean. The hybrid method works well in both areas, primarily because a single feature, the land-sea contrast in the warming, controls the overwhelming majority of the spatial detail. Finally, the dynamically downscaled temperature change patterns are compared to those produced by two commonly-used statistical methods, BCSD and BCCA. Results show that dynamical downscaling recovers important spatial features that the

  14. Identification of sdiA-regulated genes in a mouse commensal strain of Enterobacter cloacae

    PubMed Central

    Sabag-Daigle, Anice; Dyszel, Jessica L.; Gonzalez, Juan F.; Ali, Mohamed M.; Ahmer, Brian M. M.

    2015-01-01

    Many bacteria determine their population density using quorum sensing. The most intensively studied mechanism of quorum sensing utilizes proteins of the LuxI family to synthesize a signaling molecule of the acylhomoserine lactone (AHL) type, and a protein of the LuxR family to bind AHL and regulate transcription. Genes regulated by quorum sensing often encode functions that are most effective when a group of bacteria are working cooperatively (e.g., luminescence, biofilm formation, host interactions). Bacteria in the Escherichia, Salmonella, Klebsiella, and Enterobacter genera do not encode an AHL synthase but they do encode an AHL receptor of the LuxR family, SdiA. Instead of detecting their own AHL synthesis, these organisms use SdiA to detect the AHLs synthesized by other bacterial species. In this study, we used a genetic screen to identify AHL-responsive genes in a commensal Enterobacter cloacae strain that was isolated from a laboratory mouse. The genes include a putative type VI secretion system, copA (a copper transporter), and fepE (extends O-antigen chain length). A new transposon mutagenesis strategy and suicide vectors were used to construct an sdiA mutant of E. cloacae. The AHL-responsiveness of all fusions was entirely sdiA-dependent, although some genes were regulated by sdiA in the absence of AHL. PMID:26075189

  15. Lars Onsager Prize Lecture: Statistical Dynamics of Disordered Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, Daniel S.

    2013-03-01

    The properties of many systems are strongly affected by quenched disorder that arose from their past history but is frozen on the time scales of interest. Although equilibrium phases and phase transitions in disordered materials can be very different from their counterparts in pure systems, the most striking phenomena involve non-equilibrium dynamics. The state of understanding of some of these will be reviewed including approach to equilibrium in spin glasses and the onset of motion in driven systems such as vortices in superconductors or earthquakes on geological faults. The potential for developing understanding of short-term evolutionary dynamics of microbial populations by taking advantage of the randomness of their past histories and the biological complexities will be discussed briefly.

  16. Chandrasekhar's dynamical friction and non-extensive statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, J. M.; Lima, J. A. S.; de Souza, R. E.; Del Popolo, A.; Le Delliou, Morgan; Lee, Xi-Guo

    2016-05-01

    The motion of a point like object of mass M passing through the background potential of massive collisionless particles (m ll M) suffers a steady deceleration named dynamical friction. In his classical work, Chandrasekhar assumed a Maxwellian velocity distribution in the halo and neglected the self gravity of the wake induced by the gravitational focusing of the mass M. In this paper, by relaxing the validity of the Maxwellian distribution due to the presence of long range forces, we derive an analytical formula for the dynamical friction in the context of the q-nonextensive kinetic theory. In the extensive limiting case (q = 1), the classical Gaussian Chandrasekhar result is recovered. As an application, the dynamical friction timescale for Globular Clusters spiraling to the galactic center is explicitly obtained. Our results suggest that the problem concerning the large timescale as derived by numerical N-body simulations or semi-analytical models can be understood as a departure from the standard extensive Maxwellian regime as measured by the Tsallis nonextensive q-parameter.

  17. Eddies in the Red Sea: A statistical and dynamical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhan, Peng; Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Yao, Fengchao; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-06-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) data spanning 1992-2012 were analyzed to study the statistical properties of eddies in the Red Sea. An algorithm that identifies winding angles was employed to detect 4998 eddies propagating along 938 unique eddy tracks. Statistics suggest that eddies are generated across the entire Red Sea but that they are prevalent in certain regions. A high number of eddies is found in the central basin between 18°N and 24°N. More than 87% of the detected eddies have a radius ranging from 50 to 135 km. Both the intensity and relative vorticity scale of these eddies decrease as the eddy radii increase. The averaged eddy lifespan is approximately 6 weeks. AEs and cyclonic eddies (CEs) have different deformation features, and those with stronger intensities are less deformed and more circular. Analysis of long-lived eddies suggests that they are likely to appear in the central basin with AEs tending to move northward. In addition, their eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases gradually throughout their lifespans. The annual cycles of CEs and AEs differ, although both exhibit significant seasonal cycles of intensity with the winter and summer peaks appearing in February and August, respectively. The seasonal cycle of EKE is negatively correlated with stratification but positively correlated with vertical shear of horizontal velocity and eddy growth rate, suggesting that the generation of baroclinic instability is responsible for the activities of eddies in the Red Sea.

  18. An Examination of Statistical Power in Multigroup Dynamic Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prindle, John J.; McArdle, John J.

    2012-01-01

    This study used statistical simulation to calculate differential statistical power in dynamic structural equation models with groups (as in McArdle & Prindle, 2008). Patterns of between-group differences were simulated to provide insight into how model parameters influence power approximations. Chi-square and root mean square error of…

  19. Do You Need to See It to Believe It? Let's See Statistics and Geometry Dynamically Together!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martins, José Alexandre; Roca, Assumpta Estrada; Nascimento, Maria Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Statistical graphs, measures of central tendency and measures of spread are key concepts in the statistics curriculum, so we present here a dynamic method (software) that may be used in the classroom. In this work we begin with an introductory approach. This is done to emphasize the importance of stimulating the visualization of statistical…

  20. Statistical characterization of spatiotemporal sediment dynamics in the Venice lagoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carniello, Luca; D'Alpaos, Andrea; Botter, Gianluca; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2016-05-01

    Characterizing the dynamics of suspended sediment is crucial when investigating the long-term evolution of tidal landscapes. Here we apply a widely tested mathematical model which describes the dynamics of cohesive and noncohesive sediments, driven by the combined effect of tidal currents and wind waves, using 1 year long time series of observed water levels and wind data from the Venice lagoon. The spatiotemporal evolution of the computed suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is analyzed on the basis of the "peak over threshold" theory. Our analysis suggests that events characterized by high SSC can be modeled as a marked Poisson process over most of the lagoon. The interarrival time between two consecutive over threshold events, the intensity of peak excesses, and the duration are found to be exponentially distributed random variables over most of tidal flats. Our study suggests that intensity and duration of over threshold events are temporally correlated, while almost no correlation exists between interarrival times and both durations and intensities. The benthic vegetation colonizing the central southern part of the Venice lagoon is found to exert a crucial role on sediment dynamics: vegetation locally decreases the frequency of significant resuspension events by affecting spatiotemporal patterns of SSCs also in adjacent areas. Spatial patterns of the mean interarrival of over threshold SSC events are found to be less heterogeneous than the corresponding patterns of mean interarrivals of over threshold bottom shear stress events because of the role of advection/dispersion processes in mixing suspended sediments within the lagoon. Implications for long-term morphodynamic modeling of tidal environments are discussed.

  1. Statistical methodologies for the control of dynamic remapping

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saltz, J. H.; Nicol, D. M.

    1986-01-01

    Following an initial mapping of a problem onto a multiprocessor machine or computer network, system performance often deteriorates with time. In order to maintain high performance, it may be necessary to remap the problem. The decision to remap must take into account measurements of performance deterioration, the cost of remapping, and the estimated benefits achieved by remapping. We examine the tradeoff between the costs and the benefits of remapping two qualitatively different kinds of problems. One problem assumes that performance deteriorates gradually, the other assumes that performance deteriorates suddenly. We consider a variety of policies for governing when to remap. In order to evaluate these policies, statistical models of problem behaviors are developed. Simulation results are presented which compare simple policies with computationally expensive optimal decision policies; these results demonstrate that for each problem type, the proposed simple policies are effective and robust.

  2. Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions - Dynamics of synaptic modification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ingber, L.

    1983-01-01

    A recent study has demonstrated that several scales of neocortical interactions can be consistently analyzed with the use of methods of modern nonlinear nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The formation, stability, and interaction of spatial-temporal patterns of columnar firings are explicitly calculated, to test hypothesized mechanisms relating to information processing. In this context, most probable patterns of columnar firings are associated with chemical and electrical synaptic modifications. It is stressed that synaptic modifications and shifts in most-probable firing patterns are highly nonlinear and interactive sets of phenomena. A detailed scenario of information processing is calculated of columnar coding of external stimuli, short-term storage via hysteresis, and long-term storage via synaptic modification.

  3. Dynamic Modelling and Statistical Analysis of Event Times

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2006-01-01

    This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modelling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedical, and other areas. Recurrent event modelling possesses unique facets making it different and more difficult to handle than single event settings. For instance, the impact of an increasing number of event occurrences needs to be taken into account, the effects of covariates should be considered, potential association among the inter-event times within a unit cannot be ignored, and the effects of performed interventions after each event occurrence need to be factored in. A recent general class of models for recurrent events which simultaneously accommodates these aspects is described. Statistical inference methods for this class of models are presented and illustrated through applications to real data sets. Some existing open research problems are described. PMID:17906740

  4. Introduction to Focus Issue: Statistical mechanics and billiard-type dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonel, Edson D.; Beims, Marcus W.; Bunimovich, Leonid A.

    2012-06-01

    Dynamical systems of the billiard type are of fundamental importance for the description of numerous phenomena observed in many different fields of research, including statistical mechanics, Hamiltonian dynamics, nonlinear physics, and many others. This Focus Issue presents the recent progress in this area with contributions from the mathematical as well as physical stand point.

  5. Human turnover dynamics during sleep: Statistical behavior and its modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoneyama, Mitsuru; Okuma, Yasuyuki; Utsumi, Hiroya; Terashi, Hiroo; Mitoma, Hiroshi

    2014-03-01

    Turnover is a typical intermittent body movement while asleep. Exploring its behavior may provide insights into the mechanisms and management of sleep. However, little is understood about the dynamic nature of turnover in healthy humans and how it can be modified in disease. Here we present a detailed analysis of turnover signals that are collected by accelerometry from healthy elderly subjects and age-matched patients with neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's disease. In healthy subjects, the time intervals between consecutive turnover events exhibit a well-separated bimodal distribution with one mode at ⩽10 s and the other at ⩾100 s, whereas such bimodality tends to disappear in neurodegenerative patients. The discovery of bimodality and fine temporal structures (⩽10 s) is a contribution that is not revealed by conventional sleep recordings with less time resolution (≈30 s). Moreover, we estimate the scaling exponent of the interval fluctuations, which also shows a clear difference between healthy subjects and patients. We incorporate these experimental results into a computational model of human decision making. A decision is to be made at each simulation step between two choices: to keep on sleeping or to make a turnover, the selection of which is determined dynamically by comparing a pair of random numbers assigned to each choice. This decision is weighted by a single parameter that reflects the depth of sleep. The resulting simulated behavior accurately replicates many aspects of observed turnover patterns, including the appearance or disappearance of bimodality and leads to several predictions, suggesting that the depth parameter may be useful as a quantitative measure for differentiating between normal and pathological sleep. These findings have significant clinical implications and may pave the way for the development of practical sleep assessment technologies.

  6. Statistical precision and sensitivity of measures of dynamic gait stability.

    PubMed

    Bruijn, Sjoerd M; van Dieën, Jaap H; Meijer, Onno G; Beek, Peter J

    2009-04-15

    Recently, two methods for quantifying a system's dynamic stability have been applied to human locomotion: local stability (quantified by finite time maximum Lyapunov exponents, lambda(S-stride) and lambda(L-stride)) and orbital stability (quantified as maximum Floquet multipliers, MaxFm). Thus far, however, it has remained unclear how many data points are required to obtain precise estimates of these measures during walking, and to what extent these estimates are sensitive to changes in walking behaviour. To resolve these issues, we collected long data series of healthy subjects (n=9) walking on a treadmill in three conditions (normal walking at 0.83 m/s (3 km/h) and 1.38 m/s (5 km/h), and walking at 1.38 m/s (5 km/h) while performing a Stroop dual task). Data series from 0.83 and 1.38 m/s trials were submitted to a bootstrap procedure and paired t-tests for samples of different data series lengths were performed between 0.83 and 1.38 m/s and between 1.38 m/s with and without Stroop task. Longer data series led to more precise estimates for lambda(S-stride), lambda(L-stride), and MaxFm. All variables showed an effect of data series length. Thus, when estimating and comparing these variables across conditions, data series covering an equal number of strides should be analysed. lambda(S-stride), lambda(L-stride), and MaxFm were sensitive to the change in walking speed while only lambda(S-stride) and MaxFm were sensitive enough to capture the modulations of walking induced by the Stroop task. Still, these modulations could only be detected when using a substantial number of strides (>150). PMID:19135478

  7. Monthly to seasonal low flow prediction: statistical versus dynamical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Klein, Bastian; Meissner, Dennis; Rademacher, Silke

    2016-04-01

    the Alfred Wegener Institute a purely statistical scheme to generate streamflow forecasts for several months ahead. Instead of directly using teleconnection indices (e.g. NAO, AO) the idea is to identify regions with stable teleconnections between different global climate information (e.g. sea surface temperature, geopotential height etc.) and streamflow at different gauges relevant for inland waterway transport. So-called stability (correlation) maps are generated showing regions where streamflow and climate variable from previous months are significantly correlated in a 21 (31) years moving window. Finally, the optimal forecast model is established based on a multiple regression analysis of the stable predictors. We will present current results of the aforementioned approaches with focus on the River Rhine (being one of the world's most frequented waterways and the backbone of the European inland waterway network) and the Elbe River. Overall, our analysis reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of the low flows at monthly and seasonal time scales, a result that may be useful to water resources management. Given that all predictors used in the models are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used operationally to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming low flows.

  8. Statistical Physics Approaches to Respiratory Dynamics and Lung Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suki, Bela

    2004-03-01

    The lung consists of a branching airway tree embedded in viscoelastic tissue and provides life-sustaining gas exchange to the body. In diseases, its structure is damaged and its function is compromised. We review two recent works about lung structure and dynamics and how they change in disease. 1) We introduced a new acoustic imaging approach to study airway structure. When airways in a collapsed lung are inflated, they pop open in avalanches. A single opening emits a sound package called crackle consisting of an initial spike (s) followed by ringing. The distribution n(s) of s follows a power law and the exponent of n(s) can be used to calculate the diameter ratio d defined as the ratio of the diameters of an airway to that of its parent averaged over all bifurcations. To test this method, we measured crackles in dogs, rabbits, rats and mice by inflating collapsed isolated lungs with air or helium while recording crackles with a microphone. In each species, n(s) follows a power law with an exponent that depends on species, but not on gas in agreement with theory. Values of d from crackles compare well with those calculated from morphometric data suggesting that this approach is suitable to study airway structure in disease. 2) Using novel experiments and computer models, we studied pulmonary emphysema which is caused by cigarette smoking. In emphysema, the elastic protein fibers of the tissue are actively remodeled by lung cells due to the chemicals present in smoke. We measured the mechanical properties of tissue sheets from normal and emphysematous lungs and imaged its structure which appears as a heterogeneous hexagonal network of fibers. We found evidence that during uniaxial stretching, the collagen and elastin fibers in emphysematous tissue can fail at a critical stress generating holes of various sizes (h). We developed network models of the failure process. When the failure is governed by mechanical forces, the distribution n(h) of h is a power law which

  9. SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION IN PRACTICE, SURVEY OF OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL SDI PROGRAMS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DOWNIE, CURRIE S.; HOSHOVSKY, ALEXANDER G.

    AN OVERVIEW OF THE OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL SYSTEMS ESTABLISHED FOR THE SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL INFORMATION (SDI) IS PRESENTED. AN ATTEMPT HAS ALSO BEEN MADE TO IDENTIFY THE TRENDS WHICH MAY SHAPE THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION PROCEDURES. THE REPORT IS BASED IN PART ON THE EXISTING SDI…

  10. Near-surface soil water and temperature for SDI, LEPA, and spray irrigation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Near-surface soil temperatures and volumetric soil water contents were compared for SDI, LEPA, and spray irrigation in a Pullman clay loam soil planted in cotton. Soil temperatures were measured by type-T thermocouples and volumetric water contents were measured by time domain reflectometry (TDR) in...

  11. Social Development in Hong Kong: Development Issues Identified by Social Development Index (SDI)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chua, Hoi-wai; Wong, Anthony K. W.; Shek, Daniel T. L.

    2010-01-01

    Surviving the aftermaths of the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS in 2003, Hong Kong's economy has re-gained its momentum and its economic growth has been quite remarkable too in recent few years. Nevertheless, as reflected by the Social Development Index (SDI), economic growth in Hong Kong does not seem to have benefited the people of the city at…

  12. Measuring dynamical randomness of quantum chaos by statistics of Schmidt eigenvalues.

    PubMed

    Kubotani, Hiroto; Adachi, Satoshi; Toda, Mikito

    2013-06-01

    We study statistics of entanglement generated by quantum chaotic dynamics. Using an ensemble of the very large number (>/~10(7)) of quantum states obtained from the temporally evolving coupled kicked tops, we verify that the estimated one-body distribution of the squared Schmidt eigenvalues for the quantum chaotic dynamics can agree surprisingly well with the analytical one for the universality class of the random matrices described by the fixed trace ensemble (FTE). In order to quantify this agreement, we introduce the L(1) norm of the difference between the one-body distributions for the quantum chaos and FTE and use it as an indicator of the dynamical randomness. As we increase the scaled coupling constant, the L(1) difference decreases. When the effective Planck constant is not small enough, the decrease saturates, which implies quantum suppression of dynamical randomness. On the other hand, when the effective Planck constant is small enough, the decrease of the L(1) difference continues until it is masked by statistical fluctuation due to finiteness of the ensemble. Furthermore, we carry out two statistical analyses, the χ(2) goodness of fit test and an autocorrelation analysis, on the difference between the distributions to seek for dynamical remnants buried under the statistical fluctuation. We observe that almost all fluctuating deviations are statistical. However, even for well-developed quantum chaos, unexpectedly, we find a slight nonstatistical deviation near the largest Schmidt eigenvalue. In this way, the statistics of Schmidt eigenvalues enables us to measure dynamical randomness of quantum chaos with reference to the random matrix theory of FTE. PMID:23848762

  13. Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

    2005-06-01

    Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

  14. Statistically accurate low-order models for uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems.

    PubMed

    Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J

    2013-08-20

    A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra. PMID:23918398

  15. Structural and Mechanistic Roles of Novel Chemical Ligands on the SdiA Quorum-Sensing Transcription Regulator

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Nguyen, Y.; Nguyen, Nam X.; Rogers, Jamie L.; Liao, Jun; MacMillan, John B.; Jiang, Youxing; Sperandio, Vanessa

    2015-05-19

    Bacteria engage in chemical signaling, termed quorum sensing (QS), to mediate intercellular communication, mimicking multicellular organisms. The LuxR family of QS transcription factors regulates gene expression, coordinating population behavior by sensing endogenous acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs). However, some bacteria (such as Escherichia coli) do not produce AHLs. These LuxR orphans sense exogenous AHLs but also regulate transcription in the absence of AHLs. Importantly, this AHL-independent regulatory mechanism is still largely unknown. Here we present several structures of one such orphan LuxR-type protein, SdiA, from enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), in the presence and absence of AHL. SdiA is actually not inmore » an apo state without AHL but is regulated by a previously unknown endogenous ligand, 1-octanoyl-rac-glycerol (OCL), which is ubiquitously found throughout the tree of life and serves as an energy source, signaling molecule, and substrate for membrane biogenesis. While exogenous AHL renders to SdiA higher stability and DNA binding affinity, OCL may function as a chemical chaperone placeholder that stabilizes SdiA, allowing for basal activity. Structural comparison between SdiA-AHL and SdiA-OCL complexes provides crucial mechanistic insights into the ligand regulation of AHL-dependent and -independent function of LuxR-type proteins. Importantly, in addition to its contribution to basic science, this work has implications for public health, inasmuch as the SdiA signaling system aids the deadly human pathogen EHEC to adapt to a commensal lifestyle in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle, its main reservoir. These studies open exciting and novel avenues to control shedding of this human pathogen in the environment. IMPORTANCE Quorum sensing refers to bacterial chemical signaling. The QS acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) signals are recognized by LuxR-type receptors that regulate gene transcription. However, some bacteria have orphan Lux

  16. Structural and Mechanistic Roles of Novel Chemical Ligands on the SdiA Quorum-Sensing Transcription Regulator

    SciTech Connect

    Nguyen, Y.; Nguyen, Nam X.; Rogers, Jamie L.; Liao, Jun; MacMillan, John B.; Jiang, Youxing; Sperandio, Vanessa

    2015-05-19

    Bacteria engage in chemical signaling, termed quorum sensing (QS), to mediate intercellular communication, mimicking multicellular organisms. The LuxR family of QS transcription factors regulates gene expression, coordinating population behavior by sensing endogenous acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs). However, some bacteria (such as Escherichia coli) do not produce AHLs. These LuxR orphans sense exogenous AHLs but also regulate transcription in the absence of AHLs. Importantly, this AHL-independent regulatory mechanism is still largely unknown. Here we present several structures of one such orphan LuxR-type protein, SdiA, from enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), in the presence and absence of AHL. SdiA is actually not in an apo state without AHL but is regulated by a previously unknown endogenous ligand, 1-octanoyl-rac-glycerol (OCL), which is ubiquitously found throughout the tree of life and serves as an energy source, signaling molecule, and substrate for membrane biogenesis. While exogenous AHL renders to SdiA higher stability and DNA binding affinity, OCL may function as a chemical chaperone placeholder that stabilizes SdiA, allowing for basal activity. Structural comparison between SdiA-AHL and SdiA-OCL complexes provides crucial mechanistic insights into the ligand regulation of AHL-dependent and -independent function of LuxR-type proteins. Importantly, in addition to its contribution to basic science, this work has implications for public health, inasmuch as the SdiA signaling system aids the deadly human pathogen EHEC to adapt to a commensal lifestyle in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle, its main reservoir. These studies open exciting and novel avenues to control shedding of this human pathogen in the environment. IMPORTANCE Quorum sensing refers to bacterial chemical signaling. The QS acyl homoserine lactone (AHL) signals are recognized by LuxR-type receptors that regulate gene transcription. However, some bacteria have orphan LuxR-type receptors and

  17. Enriching Spatial Data Infrastructure (sdi) by User Generated Contents for Transportation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakeri, M.; Alimohammadi, A.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.; Alesheikh, A. A.

    2013-09-01

    Spatial data is one of the most critical elements underpinning decision making for many disciplines. Accessing and sharing spatial data have always been a great struggle for researchers. Spatial data infrastructure (SDI) plays a key role in spatial data sharing by building a suitable platform for collaboration and cooperation among the different data producer organizations. In recent years, SDI vision has been moved toward a user-centric platform which has led to development of a new and enriched generation of SDI (third generation). This vision is to provide an environment where users can cooperate to handle spatial data in an effective and satisfactory way. User-centric SDI concentrates on users, their requirements and preferences while in the past, SDI initiatives were mainly concentrated on technological issues such as the data harmonization, standardized metadata models, standardized web services for data discovery, visualization and download. On the other hand, new technologies such as the GPS-equipped smart phones, navigation devices and Web 2.0 technologies have enabled citizens to actively participate in production and sharing of the spatial information. This has led to emergence of the new phenomenon called the Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI). VGI describes any type of content that has a geographic element which has been voluntarily collected. However, its distinctive element is the geographic information that can be collected and produced by citizens with different formal expertise and knowledge of the spatial or geographical concepts. Therefore, ordinary citizens can cooperate in providing massive sources of information that cannot be ignored. These can be considered as the valuable spatial information sources in SDI. These sources can be used for completing, improving and updating of the existing databases. Spatial information and technologies are an important part of the transportation systems. Planning, design and operation of the

  18. Statistical and dynamical assessment of vegetation feedbacks on climate over the boreal forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, Michael; Liu, Zhengyu

    2008-11-01

    Vegetation feedbacks over Asiatic Russia are assessed through a combined statistical and dynamical approach in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model, FOAM-LPJ. The dynamical assessment is comprised of initial value ensemble experiments in which the forest cover fraction is initially reduced over Asiatic Russia, replaced by grass cover, and then the climatic response is determined. The statistical feedback approach, adopted from previous studies of ocean-atmosphere interactions, is applied to compute the feedback of forest cover on subsequent temperature and precipitation in the control simulation. Both methodologies indicate a year-round positive feedback on temperature and precipitation, strongest in spring and moderately substantial in summer. Reduced boreal forest cover enhances the surface albedo, leading to an extended snow season, lower air temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and enhanced low cloud cover. Changes in the hydrological cycle include diminished transpiration and moisture recycling, supporting a reduction in precipitation. The close agreement in sign and magnitude between the statistical and dynamical feedback assessments testifies to the reliability of the statistical approach. An additional statistical analysis of monthly vegetation feedbacks over Asiatic Russia reveals a robust positive feedback on air temperature of similar quantitative strength in two coupled models, FOAM-LPJ and CAM3-CLM3, and the observational record.

  19. Dynamic Graphics in Excel for Teaching Statistics: Understanding the Probability Density Function

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coll-Serrano, Vicente; Blasco-Blasco, Olga; Alvarez-Jareno, Jose A.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we show a dynamic graphic in Excel that is used to introduce an important concept in our subject, Statistics I: the probability density function. This interactive graphic seeks to facilitate conceptual understanding of the main aspects analysed by the learners.

  20. Dynamic statistical parametric mapping for analyzing the magnetoencephalographic epileptiform activity in patients with epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Shiraishi, Hideaki; Stufflebeam, Steven M; Knake, Susanne; Ahlfors, Seppo P; Sudo, Akira; Asahina, Naoko; Egawa, Kiyoshi; Hatanaka, Keisaku; Kohsaka, Shinobu; Saitoh, Shinji; Grant, P Ellen; Dale, Anders M; Halgren, Eric

    2005-04-01

    Our current purpose is to evaluate the applicability of dynamic statistical parametric mapping, a novel method for localizing epileptiform activity recorded with magnetoencephalography in patients with epilepsy. We report four pediatric patients with focal epilepsies. Magnetoencephalographic data were collected with a 306-channel whole-head helmet-shaped sensor array. We calculated equivalent current dipoles and dynamic statistical parametric mapping movies of the interictal epileptiform discharges that were based in the minimum-L2 norm estimate, minimizing the square sum of the dipole element amplitudes. The dynamic statistical parametric mapping analysis of interictal epileptiform discharges can demonstrate the rapid change and propagation of interical epileptiform discharges. According to these findings, specific epileptogenic lesion-focal cortical dysplasia could be found and patients could be operated on successfully. The presurgical analysis of interictal epileptiform discharges using dynamic statistical parametric mapping seems to be promising in patients with a possible underlying focal cortical dysplasia and might help to guide the placement of invasive electrodes. PMID:15921240

  1. Model averaging methods to merge operational statistical and dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasts in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Q. J.

    2015-03-01

    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology produces statistical and dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasts. The statistical and dynamic forecasts are similarly reliable in ensemble spread; however, skill varies by catchment and season. Therefore, it may be possible to optimize forecasting skill by weighting and merging statistical and dynamic forecasts. Two model averaging methods are evaluated for merging forecasts for 12 locations. The first method, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), applies averaging to forecast probability densities (and thus cumulative probabilities) for a given forecast variable value. The second method, quantile model averaging (QMA), applies averaging to forecast variable values (quantiles) for a given cumulative probability (quantile fraction). BMA and QMA are found to perform similarly in terms of overall skill scores and reliability in ensemble spread. Both methods improve forecast skill across catchments and seasons. However, when both the statistical and dynamical forecasting approaches are skillful but produce, on special occasions, very different event forecasts, the BMA merged forecasts for these events can have unusually wide and bimodal distributions. In contrast, the distributions of the QMA merged forecasts for these events are narrower, unimodal and generally more smoothly shaped, and are potentially more easily communicated to and interpreted by the forecast users. Such special occasions are found to be rare. However, every forecast counts in an operational service, and therefore the occasional contrast in merged forecasts between the two methods may be more significant than the indifference shown by the overall skill and reliability performance.

  2. Dynamical and statistical description of multifragmentation in heavy-ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Lihua; Wang, Ning; Ou, Li

    2015-04-01

    To explore the roles of the dynamical model and statistical model in the description of multifragmentation in heavy-ion collisions at intermediate energies, the fragments charge distributions of 197Au+197Au at 35 MeV/u are analyzed by using the hybrid model of improved quantum molecular dynamics (ImQMD) model plus the statistical model GEMINI. We find that, the ImQMD model can well describe the charge distributions of fragments produced in central and semicentral collisions. But for the peripheral collisions of Au+Au at 35 MeV/u, the statistical model is required at the end of the ImQMD simulations for the better description of the charge distribution of fragments. By using the hybrid model of ImQMD+GEMINI, the fragment charge distribution of Au+Au at 35 MeV/u can be reproduced reasonably well. The time evolution of the excitation energies of primary fragments is simultaneously investigated.

  3. Dynamics of statistically confident particle sizes and concentrations in blood plasma obtained by the dynamic light scattering method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaikov, Leonid L.; Kirichenko, Marina N.; Krivokhizha, Svetlana V.; Zaritskiy, Alexander R.

    2015-05-01

    The work is devoted to the study of sizes and concentrations of proteins, and their aggregates in blood plasma samples, using static and dynamic light scattering methods. A new approach is proposed based on multiple repetition of measurements of intensity size distribution and on counting the number of registrations of different sizes, which made it possible to obtain statistically confident particle sizes and concentrations in the blood plasma. It was revealed that statistically confident particle sizes in the blood plasma were stable during 30 h of observations, whereas the concentrations of particles of different sizes varied as a result of redistribution of material between them owing to the protein degradation processes.

  4. CsrA Represses Translation of sdiA, Which Encodes the N-Acylhomoserine-l-Lactone Receptor of Escherichia coli, by Binding Exclusively within the Coding Region of sdiA mRNA ▿ †

    PubMed Central

    Yakhnin, Helen; Baker, Carol S.; Berezin, Igor; Evangelista, Michael A.; Rassin, Alisa; Romeo, Tony; Babitzke, Paul

    2011-01-01

    The RNA binding protein CsrA is the central component of a conserved global regulatory system that activates or represses gene expression posttranscriptionally. In every known example of CsrA-mediated translational control, CsrA binds to the 5′ untranslated region of target transcripts, thereby repressing translation initiation and/or altering the stability of the RNA. Furthermore, with few exceptions, repression by CsrA involves binding directly to the Shine-Dalgarno sequence and blocking ribosome binding. sdiA encodes the quorum-sensing receptor for N-acyl-l-homoserine lactone in Escherichia coli. Because sdiA indirectly stimulates transcription of csrB, which encodes a small RNA (sRNA) antagonist of CsrA, we further explored the relationship between sdiA and the Csr system. Primer extension analysis revealed four putative transcription start sites within 85 nucleotides of the sdiA initiation codon. Potential σ70-dependent promoters were identified for each of these primer extension products. In addition, two CsrA binding sites were predicted in the initially translated region of sdiA. Expression of chromosomally integrated sdiA′-′lacZ translational fusions containing the entire promoter and CsrA binding site regions indicates that CsrA represses sdiA expression. The results from gel shift and footprint studies demonstrate that tight binding of CsrA requires both of these sites. Furthermore, the results from toeprint and in vitro translation experiments indicate that CsrA represses translation of sdiA by directly competing with 30S ribosomal subunit binding. Thus, this represents the first example of CsrA preventing translation by interacting solely within the coding region of an mRNA target. PMID:21908661

  5. The effect on prospective teachers of the learning environment supported by dynamic statistics software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koparan, Timur

    2016-02-01

    In this study, the effect on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teachers is examined. With this aim ahead, achievement test, attitude scale for statistics and interviews were used as data collection tools. The achievement test comprises 8 problems based on statistical data, and the attitude scale comprises 13 Likert-type items. The study was carried out in 2014-2015 academic year fall semester at a university in Turkey. The study, which employed the pre-test-post-test control group design of quasi-experimental research method, was carried out on a group of 80 prospective teachers, 40 in the control group and 40 in the experimental group. Both groups had four-hour classes about descriptive statistics. The classes with the control group were carried out through traditional methods while dynamic statistics software was used in the experimental group. Five prospective teachers from the experimental group were interviewed clinically after the application for a deeper examination of their views about application. Qualitative data gained are presented under various themes. At the end of the study, it was found that there is a significant difference in favour of the experimental group in terms of achievement and attitudes, the prospective teachers have affirmative approach to the use of dynamic software and see it as an effective tool to enrich maths classes. In accordance with the findings of the study, it is suggested that dynamic software, which offers unique opportunities, be used in classes by teachers and students.

  6. Joint Statistical and Dynamical Assessment of Simulated Vegetation Feedbacks on Climate Over the Boreal Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.

    2007-12-01

    Vegetation feedbacks over Asiatic Russia are assessed through a combined statistical and dynamical approach in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model, FOAM-LPJ. The dynamical assessment is comprised of initial value ensemble experiments in which the forest cover fraction is initially reduced over Asiatic Russia, replaced by grass cover, and then the climatic response is determined. The statistical feedback approach, adopted from previous studies of ocean-atmosphere interactions, is applied to compute the feedback of forest cover on subsequent temperature and precipitation in the control simulation. Both methodologies indicate a year-round positive feedback on temperature and precipitation, strongest in spring and moderately substantial in summer. Reduced boreal forest cover enhances the surface albedo, leading to an extended snow season, lower air temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and enhanced low cloud cover. Changes in the hydrological cycle include diminished transpiration and moisture recycling, supporting a reduction in precipitation. The close agreement in sign and magnitude between the statistical and dynamical feedback assessments testifies to the reliability of the statistical approach. This study supports the previous finding of a strong positive vegetation feedback on air temperature over Asiatic Russia in the observational record.

  7. SDI-based business processes: A territorial analysis web information system in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Béjar, Rubén; Latre, Miguel Á.; Lopez-Pellicer, Francisco J.; Nogueras-Iso, Javier; Zarazaga-Soria, F. J.; Muro-Medrano, Pedro R.

    2012-09-01

    Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDIs) provide access to geospatial data and operations through interoperable Web services. These data and operations can be chained to set up specialized geospatial business processes, and these processes can give support to different applications. End users can benefit from these applications, while experts can integrate the Web services in their own business processes and developments. This paper presents an SDI-based territorial analysis Web information system for Spain, which gives access to land cover, topography and elevation data, as well as to a number of interoperable geospatial operations by means of a Web Processing Service (WPS). Several examples illustrate how different territorial analysis business processes are supported. The system has been established by the Spanish National SDI (Infraestructura de Datos Espaciales de España, IDEE) both as an experimental platform for geoscientists and geoinformation system developers, and as a mechanism to contribute to the Spanish citizens knowledge about their territory.

  8. Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Díez, E.; Primo, C.; García-Moya, J. A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Orfila, B.

    2005-05-01

    Statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are tested and compared for downscaling seasonal precipitation forecasts over Spain from two DEMETER models: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO). The statistical method considered is a particular implementation of the standard analogue technique, based on close neighbours of the predicted atmospheric geopotential and humidity fields. Dynamical downscaling is performed using the Rossby Centre Climate Atmospheric model, which has been nested to the ECMWF model output, and run in climate mode for six months. We first check the performance of the direct output models in the period 1986 1997 and compare it with the results obtained applying the analogue method. We have found that the direct outputs underestimate the precipitation amount and that the statistical downscaling method improves the results as the skill of the direct forecast increases. The highest skills relative operating characteristic skill areas (RSAs) above 0.6 are associated with early and late spring, summer and autumn seasons at zero- and one-month lead times. On the other hand, models have poor skill during winter with the exception of the El Niño period (1986 1988), especially in the south of Spain. In this case, high RSAs and economic values have been found. We also compare statistical and dynamical downscaling during four seasons, obtaining no concluding result. Both methods outperform direct output from DEMETER models, but depending on the season and on the region of Spain one method is better than the other. Moreover, we have seen that dynamical and statistical methods can be used in combination, yielding the best skill scores in some cases of the study.

  9. Statistical analysis of cellular detonation dynamics from numerical simulations: one-step chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharpe, G. J.; Radulescu, M. I.

    2011-10-01

    In this paper, two methods are developed for statistically analysing the nonlinear cellular dynamics from numerical simulations of gaseous detonations, one use of which is the systematic determination of detonation cell sizes from such simulations. Both these methods rely on signed vorticity records in which the individual families of transverse waves are captured independently. The first method involves an automated extraction of the main triple-point tracks from the vorticity records, allowing statistical analysis of the spacings between neighbouring tracks. The second method uses the autocorrelation function to spectrally analyse the vorticity records. These methods are then employed for a preliminary analysis of the cellular dynamics of the standard, idealized one-step chemistry model. Evidence is found for 'cell size doubling' bifurcations in the one-step model as the cellular dynamics become more irregular (e.g. as the activation is increased). It is also shown that the statistical models converge slowly due to systematic 'shot-to-shot' variation in the cellular dynamics for fixed parameters with different initial perturbations. Instead, it appears that a range of equally probable cell sizes can be obtained for given parameters.

  10. Super-resolution of multi-pixel and sub-pixel images for the SDI. Final report. [SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-06-08

    The recent profound shift in the global balance of power in favor of the United States of America has had major repercussions on Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) planning. In particular, the focus has shifted from the provision of protection for the United States against a massive raid, involving possibly thousands of reentry vehicles, to defense against a much more limited attack which could now, however, be launched from any part of the world. Additionally, the United States is seeking to protect its forces and allies overseas, and in the task of missile detection and tracking, allowance must now be made for trajectories which can begin and end in almost any inhabited area of the globe. Thus SDI demands on surveillance technology have been significantly expanded. Space-based imaging systems will play a vital role in the surveillance task. In this report a description is first given of a typical scenario. The potential imaging problems are then examined, the mathematical background is discussed, and the innovative algorithms which have been developed for correcting and enhancing the performance of the imaging sensor are described.

  11. A statistical physics viewpoint on the dynamics of the bouncing ball

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chastaing, Jean-Yonnel; Géminard, Jean-Christophe; Bertin, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We compute, in a statistical physics perspective, the dynamics of a bouncing ball maintained in a chaotic regime thanks to collisions with a plate experiencing an aperiodic vibration. We analyze in details the energy exchanges between the bead and the vibrating plate, and show that the coupling between the bead and the plate can be modeled in terms of both a dissipative process and an injection mechanism by an energy reservoir. An analysis of the injection statistics in terms of fluctuation relation is also provided.

  12. Activities in HPM effects phenomenology at LLNL under the DNA/SDI Lth-6 effort

    SciTech Connect

    Cabayan, H.S.; King, R.J.

    1988-01-01

    During the fiscal years 1984-1986, DNA funded an effort at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under the SDI/Lth-6 program to develop models and to study the phenomenology of HPM interaction with systems. The effort concentrated on the following areas: linear coupling/modeling; linear coupling/experiments; nonlinear coupling/modeling; component failure/modeling; component characterization; and electronic subsystem characterization. This report sumarizes these subject areas.

  13. a Statistical Dynamic Approach to Structural Evolution of Complex Capital Market Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Xiao; Chai, Li H.

    As an important part of modern financial systems, capital market has played a crucial role on diverse social resource allocations and economical exchanges. Beyond traditional models and/or theories based on neoclassical economics, considering capital markets as typical complex open systems, this paper attempts to develop a new approach to overcome some shortcomings of the available researches. By defining the generalized entropy of capital market systems, a theoretical model and nonlinear dynamic equation on the operations of capital market are proposed from statistical dynamic perspectives. The US security market from 1995 to 2001 is then simulated and analyzed as a typical case. Some instructive results are discussed and summarized.

  14. The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlos, George

    2015-04-01

    As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time

  15. The applications of Complexity Theory and Tsallis Non-extensive Statistics at Solar Plasma Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlos, George

    2015-04-01

    As the solar plasma lives far from equilibrium it is an excellent laboratory for testing complexity theory and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. In this study, we present the highlights of complexity theory and Tsallis non extensive statistical mechanics as concerns their applications at solar plasma dynamics, especially at sunspot, solar flare and solar wind phenomena. Generally, when a physical system is driven far from equilibrium states some novel characteristics can be observed related to the nonlinear character of dynamics. Generally, the nonlinearity in space plasma dynamics can generate intermittent turbulence with the typical characteristics of the anomalous diffusion process and strange topologies of stochastic space plasma fields (velocity and magnetic fields) caused by the strange dynamics and strange kinetics (Zaslavsky, 2002). In addition, according to Zelenyi and Milovanov (2004) the complex character of the space plasma system includes the existence of non-equilibrium (quasi)-stationary states (NESS) having the topology of a percolating fractal set. The stabilization of a system near the NESS is perceived as a transition into a turbulent state determined by self-organization processes. The long-range correlation effects manifest themselves as a strange non-Gaussian behavior of kinetic processes near the NESS plasma state. The complex character of space plasma can also be described by the non-extensive statistical thermodynamics pioneered by Tsallis, which offers a consistent and effective theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Boltzmann - Gibbs (BG) entropy, to describe far from equilibrium nonlinear complex dynamics (Tsallis, 2009). In a series of recent papers, the hypothesis of Tsallis non-extensive statistics in magnetosphere, sunspot dynamics, solar flares, solar wind and space plasma in general, was tested and verified (Karakatsanis et al., 2013; Pavlos et al., 2014; 2015). Our study includes the analysis of solar plasma time

  16. Dynamic heterogeneity and non-Gaussian statistics for acetylcholine receptors on live cell membrane.

    PubMed

    He, W; Song, H; Su, Y; Geng, L; Ackerson, B J; Peng, H B; Tong, P

    2016-01-01

    The Brownian motion of molecules at thermal equilibrium usually has a finite correlation time and will eventually be randomized after a long delay time, so that their displacement follows the Gaussian statistics. This is true even when the molecules have experienced a complex environment with a finite correlation time. Here, we report that the lateral motion of the acetylcholine receptors on live muscle cell membranes does not follow the Gaussian statistics for normal Brownian diffusion. From a careful analysis of a large volume of the protein trajectories obtained over a wide range of sampling rates and long durations, we find that the normalized histogram of the protein displacements shows an exponential tail, which is robust and universal for cells under different conditions. The experiment indicates that the observed non-Gaussian statistics and dynamic heterogeneity are inherently linked to the slow-active remodelling of the underlying cortical actin network. PMID:27226072

  17. Dynamic heterogeneity and non-Gaussian statistics for acetylcholine receptors on live cell membrane

    PubMed Central

    He, W.; Song, H.; Su, Y.; Geng, L.; Ackerson, B. J.; Peng, H. B.; Tong, P.

    2016-01-01

    The Brownian motion of molecules at thermal equilibrium usually has a finite correlation time and will eventually be randomized after a long delay time, so that their displacement follows the Gaussian statistics. This is true even when the molecules have experienced a complex environment with a finite correlation time. Here, we report that the lateral motion of the acetylcholine receptors on live muscle cell membranes does not follow the Gaussian statistics for normal Brownian diffusion. From a careful analysis of a large volume of the protein trajectories obtained over a wide range of sampling rates and long durations, we find that the normalized histogram of the protein displacements shows an exponential tail, which is robust and universal for cells under different conditions. The experiment indicates that the observed non-Gaussian statistics and dynamic heterogeneity are inherently linked to the slow-active remodelling of the underlying cortical actin network. PMID:27226072

  18. Dynamic heterogeneity and non-Gaussian statistics for acetylcholine receptors on live cell membrane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, W.; Song, H.; Su, Y.; Geng, L.; Ackerson, B. J.; Peng, H. B.; Tong, P.

    2016-05-01

    The Brownian motion of molecules at thermal equilibrium usually has a finite correlation time and will eventually be randomized after a long delay time, so that their displacement follows the Gaussian statistics. This is true even when the molecules have experienced a complex environment with a finite correlation time. Here, we report that the lateral motion of the acetylcholine receptors on live muscle cell membranes does not follow the Gaussian statistics for normal Brownian diffusion. From a careful analysis of a large volume of the protein trajectories obtained over a wide range of sampling rates and long durations, we find that the normalized histogram of the protein displacements shows an exponential tail, which is robust and universal for cells under different conditions. The experiment indicates that the observed non-Gaussian statistics and dynamic heterogeneity are inherently linked to the slow-active remodelling of the underlying cortical actin network.

  19. Wave climate projections along the French coastline: Dynamical versus statistical downscaling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Méndez, Fernando

    2014-12-01

    The estimation of possible impacts related to climate change on the wave climate is subject to several levels of uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the uncertainties inherent in the method applied to project the wave climate using atmospheric simulations. Two approaches are commonly used to obtain the regional wave climate: dynamical and statistical downscaling from atmospheric data. We apply both approaches based on the outputs of a global climate model (GCM), ARPEGE-CLIMAT, under three possible future scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) of the Fourth Assessment Report, AR4 (IPCC, 2007), along the French coast and evaluate their results for the wave climate with a high level of precision. The performance of the dynamical and the statistical methods is determined through a comparative analysis of the estimated means, standard deviations and monthly quantile distributions of significant wave heights, the joint probability distributions of wave parameters and seasonal and interannual variability. Analysis of the results shows that the statistical projections are able to reproduce the wave climatology as well as the dynamical projections, with some deficiencies being observed in the summer and for the upper tail of the significant wave height. In addition, with its low computational time requirements, the statistical downscaling method allows an ensemble of simulations to be calculated faster than the dynamical method. It then becomes possible to quantify the uncertainties associated with the choice of the GCM or the socio-economic scenarios, which will improve estimates of the impact of wave climate change along the French coast.

  20. New Methods for Applying Statistical State Dynamics to Problems in Atmospheric Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farrell, B.; Ioannou, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Adopting the perspective of statistical state dynamics (SSD) has led to a number of recent advances inunderstanding and simulating atmospheric turbulence at both boundary layer and planetary scale. Traditionally, realizations have been used to study turbulence and if a statistical quantity was needed it was obtained by averaging. However, it is now becomimg more widely appreciated that there are important advantages to studying the statistical state dynamics (SSD) directly. In turbulent systems statistical quantities are often the most useful and the advantage of obtaining these quantities directly as state variables is obvious. Moreover, quantities such as the probability density function (pdf) are often difficult to obtain accurately by sampling state trajectories. In the event that the pdf is itself time dependent or even chaotic, as is the case in the turbulence of the planetary boundary layer, the pdf can only be obtained as a state variable. However, perhaps the greatest advantage of the SSD approach is that it reveals directly the essential cooperative mechanisms of interaction among spatial and temporal scales that underly the turbulent state. In order to exploit these advantages of the SSD approach to geophysical turbulence, new analytical and computational methods are being developed. Example problems in atmospheric turbulence will be presented in which these new SSD analysis and computational methods are used.

  1. Statistical enhancement of a dynamic equilibrium-based damage identification strategy: Theory and experimental validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Hao; Lu, Bo; Su, Zhongqing; Cheng, Li

    2015-09-01

    A previously developed damage identification strategy, named Pseudo-Excitation (PE), was enhanced using a statistical processing approach. In terms of the local dynamic equilibrium of the structural component under inspection, the distribution of its vibration displacements, which are of necessity to construct the damage index in the PE, was re-defined using sole dynamic strains based on the statistical method. On top of those advantages inheriting from the original PE compared with traditional vibration-based damage detection including the independence of baseline signals and pre-developed benchmark structures, the enhanced PE (EPE) possesses improved immunity to the interference of measurement noise. Moreover, the EPE can facilitate practical implementation of online structural health monitoring, benefiting from the use of sole strain information. Proof-of-concept numerical study was conducted to examine the feasibility and accuracy of the EPE, and the effectiveness of the proposed statistical enhancement in re-constructing the vibration displacements was evaluated under noise influence; experimental validation was followed up by characterizing multi-cracks in a beam-like structure, in which the dynamic strains were measured using Lead zirconium titanate (PZT) sensors. For comparison, the original PE, the Gapped Smoothing Method (GSM), and the EPE were respectively used to evaluate the cracks. It was observed from the damage identification results that both the GSM and EPE were able to achieve higher identification accuracy than the original PE, and the robustness of the EPE in damage identification was proven to be superior than that of the GSM.

  2. Statistical-Dynamical Drought Forecast within Bayesian Networks and Data Assimilation: How to Quantify Drought Recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradkhani, Hamid

    2015-04-01

    Drought forecasting is vital for resource management and planning. Both societal and agricultural requirements for water weigh heavily on the natural environment, which may become scarce in the event of drought. Although drought forecasts are an important tool for managing water in hydrologic systems, these forecasts are plagued by uncertainties, owing to the complexities of water dynamics and the spatial heterogeneities of pertinent variables. Due to these uncertainties, it is necessary to frame forecasts in a probabilistic manner. Here we present a statistical-dynamical probabilistic drought forecast framework within Bayesian networks. The statistical forecast model applies a family of multivariate distribution functions to forecast future drought conditions given the drought status in the past. The advantage of the statistical forecast model is that it develops conditional probabilities of a given forecast variable, and returns the highest probable forecast along with an assessment of the uncertainty around that value. The dynamical model relies on data assimilation to characterize the initial land surface condition uncertainty which correspondingly reflect on drought forecast. In addition, the recovery of drought will be examined. From these forecasts, it is found that drought recovery is a longer process than suggested in recent literature. Drought in land surface variables (snow, soil moisture) is shown to be persistent up to a year in certain locations, depending on the intensity of the drought. Location within the basin appears to be a driving factor in the ability of the land surface to recover from drought, allowing for differentiation between drought prone and drought resistant regions.

  3. The non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of a simple geophysical fluid dynamics model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkley, Wim; Severijns, Camiel

    2014-05-01

    Lorenz [1] has devised a dynamical system that has proved to be very useful as a benchmark system in geophysical fluid dynamics. The system in its simplest form consists of a periodic array of variables that can be associated with an atmospheric field on a latitude circle. The system is driven by a constant forcing, is damped by linear friction and has a simple advection term that causes the model to behave chaotically if the forcing is large enough. Our aim is to predict the statistics of Lorenz' model on the basis of a given average value of its total energy - obtained from a numerical integration - and the assumption of statistical stationarity. Our method is the principle of maximum entropy [2] which in this case reads: the information entropy of the system's probability density function shall be maximal under the constraints of normalization, a given value of the average total energy and statistical stationarity. Statistical stationarity is incorporated approximately by using `stationarity constraints', i.e., by requiring that the average first and possibly higher-order time-derivatives of the energy are zero in the maximization of entropy. The analysis [3] reveals that, if the first stationarity constraint is used, the resulting probability density function rather accurately reproduces the statistics of the individual variables. If the second stationarity constraint is used as well, the correlations between the variables are also reproduced quite adequately. The method can be generalized straightforwardly and holds the promise of a viable non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of the forced-dissipative systems of geophysical fluid dynamics. [1] E.N. Lorenz, 1996: Predictability - A problem partly solved, in Proc. Seminar on Predictability (ECMWF, Reading, Berkshire, UK), Vol. 1, pp. 1-18. [2] E.T. Jaynes, 2003: Probability Theory - The Logic of Science (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). [3] W.T.M. Verkley and C.A. Severijns, 2014: The maximum entropy

  4. Dynamical and Statistical Aspects in Nucleus--Nucleus Collisions Around the Fermi Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamain, B.; Assenard, M.; Auger, G.; Bacri, C. O.; Benlliure, J.; Bisquer, E.; Bocage, F.; Borderie, B.; Bougault, R.; Buchet, P.; Charvet, J. L.; Chbihi, A.; Colin, J.; Cussol, D.; Dayras, R.; Demeyer, A.; Dore, D.; Durand, D.; Eudes, P.; Frankland, J.; Galichet, E.; Genouin-Duhamel, E.; Gerlic, E.; Germain, M.; Gourio, D.; Guinet, D.; Gulminelli, F.; Lautesse, P.; Laville, J. L.; Lebrun, C.; Lecolley, J. F.; Lefevre, A.; Lefort, T.; Legrain, R.; Le Neindre, N.; Lopez, O.; Louvel, M.; Lukasik, J.; Marie, N.; Maskay, M.; Metivier, V.; Nalpas, L.; Nguyen, A.; Parlog, M.; Peter, J.; Plagnol, E.; Rahmani, A.; Reposeur, T.; Rivet, M. F.; Rosato, E.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Salou, S.; Squalli, M.; Steckmeyer, J. C.; Stern, M.; Tabacaru, T.; Tassan-Got, L.; Tirel, O.; Vient, E.; Volan, C.; Wieleczko, J. P.

    1998-01-01

    This contribution is devoted to two important aspects of intermediate energy nucleus-nucleus collisions: the competition of dynamical and statistical features, and the origin of the multifragmentation process. These two questions are discussed in focusing on Indra data. It turns out that most of collisions are binary and reminiscent of deep inelastic collisions observed at low energy. However, intermediate velocity emission is a clear signature of dynamical emission and establishes a link with the participant-spectator picture which applies at high bombarding energies. Multifragmentation is observed when the dissipated energy is large and it turns out that expansion occurs at least for central collisions, as it is expected if this phenomenum has a dynamical origin.

  5. Minimal agent based model for financial markets II. Statistical properties of the linear and multiplicative dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfi, V.; Cristelli, M.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the Agent Based Model introduced in paper I [Eur. Phys. J. B, DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2009-00028-4] and of its generalization to the multiplicative dynamics. The aim of the model is to consider the minimal elements for the understanding of the origin of the stylized facts and their self-organization. The key elements are fundamentalist agents, chartist agents, herding dynamics and price behavior. The first two elements correspond to the competition between stability and instability tendencies in the market. The herding behavior governs the possibility of the agents to change strategy and it is a crucial element of this class of models. We consider a linear approximation for the price dynamics which permits a simple interpretation of the model dynamics and, for many properties, it is possible to derive analytical results. The generalized non linear dynamics results to be extremely more sensible to the parameter space and much more difficult to analyze and control. The main results for the nature and self-organization of the stylized facts are, however, very similar in the two cases. The main peculiarity of the non linear dynamics is an enhancement of the fluctuations and a more marked evidence of the stylized facts. We will also discuss some modifications of the model to introduce more realistic elements with respect to the real markets.

  6. Structural and Mechanistic Roles of Novel Chemical Ligands on the SdiA Quorum-Sensing Transcription Regulator

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Y; Nguyen, Nam X.; Rogers, Jamie L.; Liao, Jun; MacMillan, John B.

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Bacteria engage in chemical signaling, termed quorum sensing (QS), to mediate intercellular communication, mimicking multicellular organisms. The LuxR family of QS transcription factors regulates gene expression, coordinating population behavior by sensing endogenous acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs). However, some bacteria (such as Escherichia coli) do not produce AHLs. These LuxR orphans sense exogenous AHLs but also regulate transcription in the absence of AHLs. Importantly, this AHL-independent regulatory mechanism is still largely unknown. Here we present several structures of one such orphan LuxR-type protein, SdiA, from enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), in the presence and absence of AHL. SdiA is actually not in an apo state without AHL but is regulated by a previously unknown endogenous ligand, 1-octanoyl-rac-glycerol (OCL), which is ubiquitously found throughout the tree of life and serves as an energy source, signaling molecule, and substrate for membrane biogenesis. While exogenous AHL renders to SdiA higher stability and DNA binding affinity, OCL may function as a chemical chaperone placeholder that stabilizes SdiA, allowing for basal activity. Structural comparison between SdiA-AHL and SdiA-OCL complexes provides crucial mechanistic insights into the ligand regulation of AHL-dependent and -independent function of LuxR-type proteins. Importantly, in addition to its contribution to basic science, this work has implications for public health, inasmuch as the SdiA signaling system aids the deadly human pathogen EHEC to adapt to a commensal lifestyle in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of cattle, its main reservoir. These studies open exciting and novel avenues to control shedding of this human pathogen in the environment. PMID:25827420

  7. Displaying R spatial statistics on Google dynamic maps with web applications created by Rwui

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The R project includes a large variety of packages designed for spatial statistics. Google dynamic maps provide web based access to global maps and satellite imagery. We describe a method for displaying directly the spatial output from an R script on to a Google dynamic map. Methods This is achieved by creating a Java based web application which runs the R script and then displays the results on the dynamic map. In order to make this method easy to implement by those unfamiliar with programming Java based web applications, we have added the method to the options available in the R Web User Interface (Rwui) application. Rwui is an established web application for creating web applications for running R scripts. A feature of Rwui is that all the code for the web application being created is generated automatically so that someone with no knowledge of web programming can make a fully functional web application for running an R script in a matter of minutes. Results Rwui can now be used to create web applications that will display the results from an R script on a Google dynamic map. Results may be displayed as discrete markers and/or as continuous overlays. In addition, users of the web application may select regions of interest on the dynamic map with mouse clicks and the coordinates of the region of interest will automatically be made available for use by the R script. Conclusions This method of displaying R output on dynamic maps is designed to be of use in a number of areas. Firstly it allows statisticians, working in R and developing methods in spatial statistics, to easily visualise the results of applying their methods to real world data. Secondly, it allows researchers who are using R to study health geographics data, to display their results directly onto dynamic maps. Thirdly, by creating a web application for running an R script, a statistician can enable users entirely unfamiliar with R to run R coded statistical analyses of health geographics

  8. Providing Geographic Datasets as Linked Data in Sdi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hietanen, E.; Lehto, L.; Latvala, P.

    2016-06-01

    In this study, a prototype service to provide data from Web Feature Service (WFS) as linked data is implemented. At first, persistent and unique Uniform Resource Identifiers (URI) are created to all spatial objects in the dataset. The objects are available from those URIs in Resource Description Framework (RDF) data format. Next, a Web Ontology Language (OWL) ontology is created to describe the dataset information content using the Open Geospatial Consortium's (OGC) GeoSPARQL vocabulary. The existing data model is modified in order to take into account the linked data principles. The implemented service produces an HTTP response dynamically. The data for the response is first fetched from existing WFS. Then the Geographic Markup Language (GML) format output of the WFS is transformed on-the-fly to the RDF format. Content Negotiation is used to serve the data in different RDF serialization formats. This solution facilitates the use of a dataset in different applications without replicating the whole dataset. In addition, individual spatial objects in the dataset can be referred with URIs. Furthermore, the needed information content of the objects can be easily extracted from the RDF serializations available from those URIs. A solution for linking data objects to the dataset URI is also introduced by using the Vocabulary of Interlinked Datasets (VoID). The dataset is divided to the subsets and each subset is given its persistent and unique URI. This enables the whole dataset to be explored with a web browser and all individual objects to be indexed by search engines.

  9. High-resolution climate simulations for Central Europe: An assessment of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miksovsky, J.; Huth, R.; Halenka, T.; Belda, M.; Farda, A.; Skalak, P.; Stepanek, P.

    2009-12-01

    To bridge the resolution gap between the outputs of global climate models (GCMs) and finer-scale data needed for studies of the climate change impacts, two approaches are widely used: dynamical downscaling, based on application of regional climate models (RCMs) embedded into the domain of the GCM simulation, and statistical downscaling (SDS), using empirical transfer functions between the large-scale data generated by the GCM and local measurements. In our contribution, we compare the performance of different variants of both techniques for the region of Central Europe. The dynamical downscaling is represented by the outputs of two regional models run in the 10 km horizontal grid, ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ (co-developed by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and Meteo-France) and RegCM3 (developed by the Abdus Salam Centre for Theoretical Physics). The applied statistical methods were based on multiple linear regression, as well as on several of its nonlinear alternatives, including techniques employing artificial neural networks. Validation of the downscaling outputs was carried out using measured data, gathered from weather stations in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Hungary for the end of the 20th century; series of daily values of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and relative humidity were analyzed. None of the regional models or statistical downscaling techniques could be identified as the universally best one. For instance, while most statistical methods misrepresented the shape of the statistical distribution of the target variables (especially in the more challenging cases such as estimation of daily precipitation), RCM-generated data often suffered from severe biases. It is also shown that further enhancement of the simulated fields of climate variables can be achieved through a combination of dynamical downscaling and statistical postprocessing. This can not only be used to reduce biases and other systematic flaws in the generated time

  10. Heterogeneous Structure of Stem Cells Dynamics: Statistical Models and Quantitative Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdan, Paul; Deasy, Bridget M.; Gharaibeh, Burhan; Roehrs, Timo; Marculescu, Radu

    2014-04-01

    Understanding stem cell (SC) population dynamics is essential for developing models that can be used in basic science and medicine, to aid in predicting cells fate. These models can be used as tools e.g. in studying patho-physiological events at the cellular and tissue level, predicting (mal)functions along the developmental course, and personalized regenerative medicine. Using time-lapsed imaging and statistical tools, we show that the dynamics of SC populations involve a heterogeneous structure consisting of multiple sub-population behaviors. Using non-Gaussian statistical approaches, we identify the co-existence of fast and slow dividing subpopulations, and quiescent cells, in stem cells from three species. The mathematical analysis also shows that, instead of developing independently, SCs exhibit a time-dependent fractal behavior as they interact with each other through molecular and tactile signals. These findings suggest that more sophisticated models of SC dynamics should view SC populations as a collective and avoid the simplifying homogeneity assumption by accounting for the presence of more than one dividing sub-population, and their multi-fractal characteristics.

  11. Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems.

    PubMed

    Williams, Richard A; Timmis, Jon; Qwarnstrom, Eva E

    2016-01-01

    Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. PMID:27571414

  12. Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems

    PubMed Central

    Timmis, Jon; Qwarnstrom, Eva E.

    2016-01-01

    Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. PMID:27571414

  13. Dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging: II. Task-oriented statistical estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karakatsanis, Nicolas A.; Lodge, Martin A.; Zhou, Y.; Wahl, Richard L.; Rahmim, Arman

    2013-10-01

    In the context of oncology, dynamic PET imaging coupled with standard graphical linear analysis has been previously employed to enable quantitative estimation of tracer kinetic parameters of physiological interest at the voxel level, thus, enabling quantitative PET parametric imaging. However, dynamic PET acquisition protocols have been confined to the limited axial field-of-view (˜15-20 cm) of a single-bed position and have not been translated to the whole-body clinical imaging domain. On the contrary, standardized uptake value (SUV) PET imaging, considered as the routine approach in clinical oncology, commonly involves multi-bed acquisitions, but is performed statically, thus not allowing for dynamic tracking of the tracer distribution. Here, we pursue a transition to dynamic whole-body PET parametric imaging, by presenting, within a unified framework, clinically feasible multi-bed dynamic PET acquisition protocols and parametric imaging methods. In a companion study, we presented a novel clinically feasible dynamic (4D) multi-bed PET acquisition protocol as well as the concept of whole-body PET parametric imaging employing Patlak ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to estimate the quantitative parameters of tracer uptake rate Ki and total blood distribution volume V. In the present study, we propose an advanced hybrid linear regression framework, driven by Patlak kinetic voxel correlations, to achieve superior trade-off between contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) and mean squared error (MSE) than provided by OLS for the final Ki parametric images, enabling task-based performance optimization. Overall, whether the observer's task is to detect a tumor or quantitatively assess treatment response, the proposed statistical estimation framework can be adapted to satisfy the specific task performance criteria, by adjusting the Patlak correlation-coefficient (WR) reference value. The multi-bed dynamic acquisition protocol, as optimized in the preceding companion study

  14. Statistics of voltage drop in distribution circuits: a dynamic programming approach

    SciTech Connect

    Turitsyn, Konstantin S

    2010-01-01

    We analyze a power distribution line with high penetration of distributed generation and strong variations of power consumption and generation levels. In the presence of uncertainty the statistical description of the system is required to assess the risks of power outages. In order to find the probability of exceeding the constraints for voltage levels we introduce the probability distribution of maximal voltage drop and propose an algorithm for finding this distribution. The algorithm is based on the assumption of random but statistically independent distribution of loads on buses. Linear complexity in the number of buses is achieved through the dynamic programming technique. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm by analyzing a simple 4-bus system with high variations of load levels.

  15. Cluster statistics and quasisoliton dynamics in microscopic optimal-velocity models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Bo; Xu, Xihua; Pang, John Z. F.; Monterola, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Using the non-linear optimal velocity models as an example, we show that there exists an emergent intrinsic scale that characterizes the interaction strength between multiple clusters appearing in the solutions of such models. The interaction characterizes the dynamics of the localized quasisoliton structures given by the time derivative of the headways, and the intrinsic scale is analogous to the "charge" of the quasisolitons, leading to non-trivial cluster statistics from the random perturbations to the initial steady states of uniform headways. The cluster statistics depend both on the quasisoliton charge and the density of the traffic. The intrinsic scale is also related to an emergent quantity that gives the extremum headways in the cluster formation, as well as the coexistence curve separating the absolute stable phase from the metastable phase. The relationship is qualitatively universal for general optimal velocity models.

  16. An open-source wireless sensor stack: from Arduino to SDI-12 to Water One Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hicks, S.; Damiano, S. G.; Smith, K. M.; Olexy, J.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Mayorga, E.; Aufdenkampe, A. K.

    2013-12-01

    Implementing a large-scale streaming environmental sensor network has previously been limited by the high cost of the datalogging and data communication infrastructure. The Christina River Basin Critical Zone Observatory (CRB-CZO) is overcoming the obstacles to large near-real-time data collection networks by using Arduino, an open source electronics platform, in combination with XBee ZigBee wireless radio modules. These extremely low-cost and easy-to-use open source electronics are at the heart of the new DIY movement and have provided solutions to countless projects by over half a million users worldwide. However, their use in environmental sensing is in its infancy. At present a primary limitation to widespread deployment of open-source electronics for environmental sensing is the lack of a simple, open-source software stack to manage streaming data from heterogeneous sensor networks. Here we present a functioning prototype software stack that receives sensor data over a self-meshing ZigBee wireless network from over a hundred sensors, stores the data locally and serves it on demand as a CUAHSI Water One Flow (WOF) web service. We highlight a few new, innovative components, including: (1) a versatile open data logger design based the Arduino electronics platform and ZigBee radios; (2) a software library implementing SDI-12 communication protocol between any Arduino platform and SDI12-enabled sensors without the need for additional hardware (https://github.com/StroudCenter/Arduino-SDI-12); and (3) 'midStream', a light-weight set of Python code that receives streaming sensor data, appends it with metadata on the fly by querying a relational database structured on an early version of the Observations Data Model version 2.0 (ODM2), and uses the WOFpy library to serve the data as WaterML via SOAP and REST web services.

  17. A unified n-body and statistical treatment of stellar dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lightman, A. P.; Mcmillan, S. L. W.

    1985-01-01

    The methods of a new 'hybrid' computed code for stellar dynamics are summarized. All particles in the inner spatial region are followed exactly via a direct N-body code and all particles in the outer spatial region are treated statistically via a distribution function and Fokker-Planck type methods. An intermediate region, with features of both, allows exchange of particles and energy between the outer and inner regions. The code is applied to the period just before core collapse and just after and the results are summarized.

  18. Using today's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) technologies to accomplish tomorrow's low cost space missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farmer, Dean A.

    1992-08-01

    The various core technologies developed from the SDI programs are described and the cost and weight reductions that have resulted from the systematic exploitation of today's aerospace expertise are characterized. Avionics, sensors, and on-orbit propulsion systems can be utilized in developing small, low-cost devices for space exploration with significant performance capabilities. It is shown how the resulting core technologies can be employed in constructing three specific types of miniaturized spacecraft: a 16 kg planetary rover, a 200 kg lunar lander, and a 45 kg space vehicle repair and rescue craft.

  19. A combined statistical and dynamical approach for downscaling large-scale footprints of European windstorms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, R.; Pinto, J. G.

    2012-12-01

    The occurrence of mid-latitude windstorms is related to strong socio-economic effects. For detailed and reliable regional impact studies, large datasets of high-resolution wind fields are required. In this study, a statistical downscaling approach in combination with dynamical downscaling is introduced to derive storm related gust speeds on a high-resolution grid over Europe. Multiple linear regression models are trained using reanalysis data and wind gusts from regional climate model simulations for a sample of 100 top ranking windstorm events. The method is computationally inexpensive and reproduces individual windstorm footprints adequately. Compared to observations, the results for Germany are at least as good as pure dynamical downscaling. This new tool can be easily applied to large ensembles of general circulation model simulations and thus contribute to a better understanding of the regional impact of windstorms based on decadal and climate change projections.

  20. Using spatiotemporal statistical models to estimate animal abundance and infer ecological dynamics from survey counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, Paul B.; Johnson, Devin S.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; London, Joshua M.; Boveng, Peter L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecologists often fit models to survey data to estimate and explain variation in animal abundance. Such models typically require that animal density remains constant across the landscape where sampling is being conducted, a potentially problematic assumption for animals inhabiting dynamic landscapes or otherwise exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal variation in density. We review several concepts from the burgeoning literature on spatiotemporal statistical models, including the nature of the temporal structure (i.e., descriptive or dynamical) and strategies for dimension reduction to promote computational tractability. We also review several features as they specifically relate to abundance estimation, including boundary conditions, population closure, choice of link function, and extrapolation of predicted relationships to unsampled areas. We then compare a suite of novel and existing spatiotemporal hierarchical models for animal count data that permit animal density to vary over space and time, including formulations motivated by resource selection and allowing for closed populations. We gauge the relative performance (bias, precision, computational demands) of alternative spatiotemporal models when confronted with simulated and real data sets from dynamic animal populations. For the latter, we analyze spotted seal (Phoca largha) counts from an aerial survey of the Bering Sea where the quantity and quality of suitable habitat (sea ice) changed dramatically while surveys were being conducted. Simulation analyses suggested that multiple types of spatiotemporal models provide reasonable inference (low positive bias, high precision) about animal abundance, but have potential for overestimating precision. Analysis of spotted seal data indicated that several model formulations, including those based on a log-Gaussian Cox process, had a tendency to overestimate abundance. By contrast, a model that included a population closure assumption and a scale prior on total

  1. Dynamic Statistical Characterization of Variation in Source Processes of Microseismic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith-Boughner, L.; Viegas, G. F.; Urbancic, T.; Baig, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    During a hydraulic fracture, water is pumped at high pressure into a formation. A proppant, typically sand is later injected in the hope that it will make its way into a fracture, keep it open and provide a path for the hydrocarbon to enter the well. This injection can create micro-earthquakes, generated by deformation within the reservoir during treatment. When these injections are monitored, thousands of microseismic events are recorded within several hundred cubic meters. For each well-located event, many source parameters are estimated e.g. stress drop, Savage-Wood efficiency and apparent stress. However, because we are evaluating outputs from a power-law process, the extent to which the failure is impacted by fluid injection or stress triggering is not immediately clear. To better detect differences in source processes, we use a set of dynamic statistical parameters which characterize various force balance assumptions using the average distance to the nearest event, event rate, volume enclosed by the events, cumulative moment and energy from a group of events. One parameter, the Fracability index, approximates the ratio of viscous to elastic forcing and highlights differences in the response time of a rock to changes in stress. These dynamic parameters are applied to a database of more than 90 000 events in a shale-gas play in the Horn River Basin to characterize spatial-temporal variations in the source processes. In order to resolve these differences, a moving window, nearest neighbour approach was used. First, the center of mass of the local distribution was estimated for several source parameters. Then, a set of dynamic parameters, which characterize the response of the rock were estimated. These techniques reveal changes in seismic efficiency and apparent stress and often coincide with marked changes in the Fracability index and other dynamic statistical parameters. Utilizing these approaches allowed for the characterization of fluid injection related

  2. Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M.

    2015-08-01

    Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O (√{N }) ] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems—age-size relationships and species extinction time—in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics.

  3. Statistical state dynamics of jet/wave coexistence in beta-plane turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Constantinou, Navid; Farrell, Brian; Ioannou, Petros

    Jets are commonly observed to coexist in the turbulence of planetary atmospheres with planetary scale waves and embedded vortices. These large-scale coherent structures arise and are maintained in the turbulence on time scales long compared to dissipation or advective time scales. The emergence, equilibration at finite amplitude, maintenance and stability of these structures pose fundamental theoretical problems. The emergence of jets and vortices from turbulence is not associated with an instability of the mean flow and their equilibration and stability at finite amplitude does not arise solely from the linear or nonlinear dynamics of these structures in isolation from the turbulence surrounding them. Rather the dynamics of these large-scale structures arises essentially from their cooperative interaction with the small-scale turbulence in which they are embedded. It follows that fundamental theoretical understanding of the dynamics of jets and vortices in turbulence requires adopting the perspective of the statistical state dynamics (SSD) of the entire turbulent state. In this work a theory for the jet/wave coexistence regime is developed using the SSD perspective.

  4. Neutral dynamics with environmental noise: Age-size statistics and species lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Kessler, David; Suweis, Samir; Formentin, Marco; Shnerb, Nadav M

    2015-08-01

    Neutral dynamics, where taxa are assumed to be demographically equivalent and their abundance is governed solely by the stochasticity of the underlying birth-death process, has proved itself as an important minimal model that accounts for many empirical datasets in genetics and ecology. However, the restriction of the model to demographic [O√N)] noise yields relatively slow dynamics that appears to be in conflict with both short-term and long-term characteristics of the observed systems. Here we analyze two of these problems--age-size relationships and species extinction time--in the framework of a neutral theory with both demographic and environmental stochasticity. It turns out that environmentally induced variations of the demographic rates control the long-term dynamics and modify dramatically the predictions of the neutral theory with demographic noise only, yielding much better agreement with empirical data. We consider two prototypes of "zero mean" environmental noise, one which is balanced with regard to the arithmetic abundance, another balanced in the logarithmic (fitness) space, study their species lifetime statistics, and discuss their relevance to realistic models of community dynamics. PMID:26382447

  5. Statistical dynamical theory of X-ray diffraction in the Bragg case: application to triple-crystal diffractometry

    PubMed

    Pavlov; Punegov

    2000-05-01

    The statistical dynamical theory of X-ray diffraction is developed for a crystal containing statistically distributed microdefects. Fourier-component equations for coherent and diffuse (incoherent) scattered waves have been obtained in the case of so-called triple-crystal diffractometry. New correlation lengths and areas are introduced for characterization of the scattered volume. PMID:10851584

  6. A Dynamic Intrusion Detection System Based on Multivariate Hotelling's T2 Statistics Approach for Network Environments.

    PubMed

    Sivasamy, Aneetha Avalappampatty; Sundan, Bose

    2015-01-01

    The ever expanding communication requirements in today's world demand extensive and efficient network systems with equally efficient and reliable security features integrated for safe, confident, and secured communication and data transfer. Providing effective security protocols for any network environment, therefore, assumes paramount importance. Attempts are made continuously for designing more efficient and dynamic network intrusion detection models. In this work, an approach based on Hotelling's T(2) method, a multivariate statistical analysis technique, has been employed for intrusion detection, especially in network environments. Components such as preprocessing, multivariate statistical analysis, and attack detection have been incorporated in developing the multivariate Hotelling's T(2) statistical model and necessary profiles have been generated based on the T-square distance metrics. With a threshold range obtained using the central limit theorem, observed traffic profiles have been classified either as normal or attack types. Performance of the model, as evaluated through validation and testing using KDD Cup'99 dataset, has shown very high detection rates for all classes with low false alarm rates. Accuracy of the model presented in this work, in comparison with the existing models, has been found to be much better. PMID:26357668

  7. A Dynamic Intrusion Detection System Based on Multivariate Hotelling's T2 Statistics Approach for Network Environments

    PubMed Central

    Avalappampatty Sivasamy, Aneetha; Sundan, Bose

    2015-01-01

    The ever expanding communication requirements in today's world demand extensive and efficient network systems with equally efficient and reliable security features integrated for safe, confident, and secured communication and data transfer. Providing effective security protocols for any network environment, therefore, assumes paramount importance. Attempts are made continuously for designing more efficient and dynamic network intrusion detection models. In this work, an approach based on Hotelling's T2 method, a multivariate statistical analysis technique, has been employed for intrusion detection, especially in network environments. Components such as preprocessing, multivariate statistical analysis, and attack detection have been incorporated in developing the multivariate Hotelling's T2 statistical model and necessary profiles have been generated based on the T-square distance metrics. With a threshold range obtained using the central limit theorem, observed traffic profiles have been classified either as normal or attack types. Performance of the model, as evaluated through validation and testing using KDD Cup'99 dataset, has shown very high detection rates for all classes with low false alarm rates. Accuracy of the model presented in this work, in comparison with the existing models, has been found to be much better. PMID:26357668

  8. A Statistical Approach for the Concurrent Coupling of Molecular Dynamics and Finite Element Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saether, E.; Yamakov, V.; Glaessgen, E.

    2007-01-01

    Molecular dynamics (MD) methods are opening new opportunities for simulating the fundamental processes of material behavior at the atomistic level. However, increasing the size of the MD domain quickly presents intractable computational demands. A robust approach to surmount this computational limitation has been to unite continuum modeling procedures such as the finite element method (FEM) with MD analyses thereby reducing the region of atomic scale refinement. The challenging problem is to seamlessly connect the two inherently different simulation techniques at their interface. In the present work, a new approach to MD-FEM coupling is developed based on a restatement of the typical boundary value problem used to define a coupled domain. The method uses statistical averaging of the atomistic MD domain to provide displacement interface boundary conditions to the surrounding continuum FEM region, which, in return, generates interface reaction forces applied as piecewise constant traction boundary conditions to the MD domain. The two systems are computationally disconnected and communicate only through a continuous update of their boundary conditions. With the use of statistical averages of the atomistic quantities to couple the two computational schemes, the developed approach is referred to as an embedded statistical coupling method (ESCM) as opposed to a direct coupling method where interface atoms and FEM nodes are individually related. The methodology is inherently applicable to three-dimensional domains, avoids discretization of the continuum model down to atomic scales, and permits arbitrary temperatures to be applied.

  9. Statistical downscaling based on dynamically downscaled predictors: Application to monthly precipitation in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellström, Cecilia; Chen, Deliang

    2003-11-01

    A prerequisite of a successful statistical downscaling is that large-scale predictors simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) must be realistic. It is assumed here that features smaller than the GCM resolution are important in determining the realism of the large-scale predictors. It is tested whether a three-step method can improve conventional one-step statistical downscaling. The method uses predictors that are upscaled from a dynamical downscaling instead of predictors taken directly from a GCM simulation. The method is applied to downscaling of monthly precipitation in Sweden. The statistical model used is a multiple regression model that uses indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation and 850-hPa specific humidity as predictors. Data from two GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4) and two RCM experiments of the Rossby Centre model (RCA1) driven by the GCMs are used. It is found that upscaled RCA1 predictors capture the seasonal cycle better than those from the GCMs, and hence increase the reliability of the downscaled precipitation. However, there are only slight improvements in the simulation of the seasonal cycle of downscaled precipitation. Due to the cost of the method and the limited improvements in the downscaling results, the three-step method is not justified to replace the one-step method for downscaling of Swedish precipitation.

  10. SERVIR's Contributions and Benefits to Belize thru Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Irwin, Daniel E.

    2006-01-01

    Dan Irwin, the SERVIR Project Manager is being honored with the privilege of delivering the opening remarks at Belize s second celebration of GIS Day, a weeklong event to be held at the University of Belize's campus in the nation s capital, Belmopan. The request has been extended by the GIS Day Planning Committee which operates under the auspices of Belize s Ministry of Natural Resources & the Environment, which is the focal ministry for SERVIR. In the 20-30 min. allotted for the opening remarks, the SERVIR Project Manager will expound on how SERVIR, operating under the auspices of NASA s Ecological Forecasting Program, contributes to spatial data infrastructure (SDI) development in Belize. NASA s contributions to the region - particularly work under the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor - will be highlighted. Continuing, the remarks will discuss SERVIR s role in Belize s steadily expanding SDI, particularly in the context of delivering integrated decision support products via web-based infrastructure. The remarks will close with a call to the parties assembled to work together in the application of Earth Observation Systems technologies for the benefit of Belizean society as a whole. NASA s strong presence in Belize s GIS Day celebrations will be highlighted as sustained goodwill of the American people - in partial fulfillment of goals set forth under the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).

  11. A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando

    2013-04-01

    Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at

  12. Assessment of prediction skill of intraseasonal variation from dynamical, statistical, and combined models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kang, I.; Webster, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    We consider intraseasonal variation (ISV) prediction by statistical and dynamical models. For the fair comparison, the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) (RMM) index for the boreal winter is used as a predictand. The statistical prediction results are compared by reassessing the multi linear regression (MLR), wavelet, and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) model. The correlation score for RMM1 (RMM2) falls away to 0.5 between 16-17 (15-16) days for MLR, 7-8 (9-10) days for wavelet, and 8-9 (9-10) days for SSA model. As both wavelet and SSA model have a discontinuity at the boundary of data, the skill of the real-time forecast shows a steep decrease at the beginning of the forecasts. To examine the skill of dynamical prediction, serial integration is performed with Seoul National University AGCM and CGCM over the entire boreal winter period. The ocean-atmosphere coupling acts to improve the simulation ability of MJO variability, the eastward propagation, and the phase relationship between convection and SST. The skill score of RMM1 (RMM2) falls out to 0.5 at 18-19 (22-23), 15-16 (17-18), and 16-17 (15-16) for CGCM, AGCM, and MLR. This result demonstrates that dynamical prediction does not lag statistical prediction in skill and is even better when ocean-atmosphere coupling is included. The dependency of prediction skill on the initial phase and amplitude of the MJO is investigated. The score is better when the MJO is initialized during an active period than during a quiescent period for both systems. Based on different characteristics of prediction skill for each phase and amplitude and for individual models, predictions are combined using available information extracted using the better of the two predictions. By simple selection, the prediction skill is clearly improved in strong MJO cases. Using another combination process based on Bayesian concepts, two independent predictions are combined by minimizing the forecast error that is known from

  13. Defect-phase-dynamics approach to statistical domain-growth problem of clock models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kawasaki, K.

    1985-01-01

    The growth of statistical domains in quenched Ising-like p-state clock models with p = 3 or more is investigated theoretically, reformulating the analysis of Ohta et al. (1982) in terms of a phase variable and studying the dynamics of defects introduced into the phase field when the phase variable becomes multivalued. The resulting defect/phase domain-growth equation is applied to the interpretation of Monte Carlo simulations in two dimensions (Kaski and Gunton, 1983; Grest and Srolovitz, 1984), and problems encountered in the analysis of related Potts models are discussed. In the two-dimensional case, the problem is essentially that of a purely dissipative Coulomb gas, with a sq rt t growth law complicated by vertex-pinning effects at small t.

  14. Collisional statistics and dynamics of two-dimensional hard-disk systems: From fluid to solid.

    PubMed

    Taloni, Alessandro; Meroz, Yasmine; Huerta, Adrián

    2015-08-01

    We perform extensive MD simulations of two-dimensional systems of hard disks, focusing on the collisional statistical properties. We analyze the distribution functions of velocity, free flight time, and free path length for packing fractions ranging from the fluid to the solid phase. The behaviors of the mean free flight time and path length between subsequent collisions are found to drastically change in the coexistence phase. We show that single-particle dynamical properties behave analogously in collisional and continuous-time representations, exhibiting apparent crossovers between the fluid and the solid phases. We find that, both in collisional and continuous-time representation, the mean-squared displacement, velocity autocorrelation functions, intermediate scattering functions, and self-part of the van Hove function (propagator) closely reproduce the same behavior exhibited by the corresponding quantities in granular media, colloids, and supercooled liquids close to the glass or jamming transition. PMID:26382368

  15. Development of a Dynamics-Based Statistical Prediction Model for the Changma Onset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, H. L.; Seo, K. H.; Son, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    The timing of the changma onset has high impacts on the Korean Peninsula, yet its seasonal prediction remains a great challenge because the changma undergoes various influences from the tropics, subtropics, and midlatitudes. In this study, a dynamics-based statistical prediction model for the changma onset is proposed. This model utilizes three predictors of slowly varying sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the northern tropical central Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific occurring in the preceding spring season. SSTAs associated with each predictor persist until June and have an effect on the changma onset by inducing an anticyclonic anomaly to the southeast of the Korean Peninsula earlier than the climatological changma onset date. The persisting negative SSTAs over the northern tropical central Pacific and accompanying anomalous trade winds induce enhanced convection over the far-western tropical Pacific; in turn, these induce a cyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea and an anticyclonic anomaly southeast of the Korean Peninsula. Diabatic heating and cooling tendency related to the North Atlantic dipolar SSTAs induces downstream Rossby wave propagation in the upper troposphere, developing a barotropic anticyclonic anomaly to the south of the Korean Peninsula. A westerly wind anomaly at around 45°N resulting from the developing positive SSTAs over the North Pacific directly reduces the strength of the Okhotsk high and gives rise to an anticyclonic anomaly southeast of the Korean Peninsula. With the dynamics-based statistical prediction model, it is demonstrated that the changma onset has considerable predictability of r = 0.73 for the period from 1982 to 2014.

  16. Numerical solutions of ideal quantum gas dynamical flows governed by semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical distribution

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jaw-Yen; Yan, Chih-Yuan; Diaz, Manuel; Huang, Juan-Chen; Li, Zhihui; Zhang, Hanxin

    2014-01-01

    The ideal quantum gas dynamics as manifested by the semiclassical ellipsoidal-statistical (ES) equilibrium distribution derived in Wu et al. (Wu et al. 2012 Proc. R. Soc. A 468, 1799–1823 (doi:10.1098/rspa.2011.0673)) is numerically studied for particles of three statistics. This anisotropic ES equilibrium distribution was derived using the maximum entropy principle and conserves the mass, momentum and energy, but differs from the standard Fermi–Dirac or Bose–Einstein distribution. The present numerical method combines the discrete velocity (or momentum) ordinate method in momentum space and the high-resolution shock-capturing method in physical space. A decoding procedure to obtain the necessary parameters for determining the ES distribution is also devised. Computations of two-dimensional Riemann problems are presented, and various contours of the quantities unique to this ES model are illustrated. The main flow features, such as shock waves, expansion waves and slip lines and their complex nonlinear interactions, are depicted and found to be consistent with existing calculations for a classical gas. PMID:24399919

  17. Drought episodes over Greece as simulated by dynamical and statistical downscaling approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anagnostopoulou, Christina

    2016-04-01

    Drought over the Greek region is characterized by a strong seasonal cycle and large spatial variability. Dry spells longer than 10 consecutive days mainly characterize the duration and the intensity of Greek drought. Moreover, an increasing trend of the frequency of drought episodes has been observed, especially during the last 20 years of the 20th century. Moreover, the most recent regional circulation models (RCMs) present discrepancies compared to observed precipitation, while they are able to reproduce the main patterns of atmospheric circulation. In this study, both a statistical and a dynamical downscaling approach are used to quantify drought episodes over Greece by simulating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different time steps (3, 6, and 12 months). A statistical downscaling technique based on artificial neural network is employed for the estimation of SPI over Greece, while this drought index is also estimated using the RCM precipitation for the time period of 1961-1990. Overall, it was found that the drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and spatial extent) were well reproduced by the regional climate models for long term drought indices (SPI12) while ANN simulations are better for the short-term drought indices (SPI3).

  18. The Master kinetic equation for the statistical treatment of the Boltzmann-Sinai classical dynamical system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tessarotto, Massimo; Cremaschini, Claudio

    2014-07-01

    In this investigation, exact particular realizations are sought for the microscopic statistical description which is associated with the classical dynamical system (CDS) formed by N identical smooth hard spheres subject to elastic collisions ( S N -CDS). The problem is posed in the framework of the ab initio statistical description of S N -CDS recently developed. It is shown that the Liouville equation associated with SN-CDS admits an exact particular solution for the N-body probability density function (PDF). This is factorized in terms of the i-th particle 1-body PDF (for all i = 1, N) via suitable weighting factors, which are denoted here as particle occupation coefficients. The latter are found to depend functionally only on the 1-body PDFs which are associated with each of the remaining particles belonging to S N -CDS. Furthermore, the 1-body PDF is proved to obey a well-defined statistical equation, referred to here as Master kinetic equation. This is an exact kinetic equation which takes into account the occurrence of configuration-space correlations due to the finite size of the extended particles, while depending functionally on the same 1-body PDF only. The asymptotic approximation of the Master equation, which holds in validity of the Boltzmann-Grad limit, is shown to recover in a suitable asymptotic sense the customary Boltzmann equation. Finally, a critical analysis is presented of the original and modified versions of the Enskog kinetic equation, as well as of some of the non-linear kinetic approaches formulated in the past for dense granular gases. Their conditions of validity and main differences with respect to the present theory are pointed out.

  19. Dislocation dynamics, plasticity and avalanche statistics using the phase-field crystal model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angheluta, Luiza

    2013-03-01

    The plastic deformation of stressed crystalline materials is characterized by intermittency and scaling behavior. The sudden strain bursts arise from collective interactions between depinned crystal defects such as dislocations. Recent experiments on sheared nanocrystals provide insights into the connection between the crystal plasticity and the mean field theory of the depinning transition, based on the similar power-law statistics of avalanche events. However, a complete theoretical formulation of this connection is still lacking, as are high quality numerical data. Phase field crystal modelling provides an efficient numerical approach to simulating the dynamics of dislocations in plastic flows at finite temperature. Dislocations are naturally created as defects in a periodic ground state that is being sheared, without any ad hoc creation and annihilation rules. These crystal defects interact and annihilate with one another, generating a collective effect of avalanches in the global plastic strain rate. We examine the statistics of plastic avalanches both at finite and zero temperatures, and find good agreement with the predictions of the mean field interface depinning theory. Moreover, we predict universal scaling forms for the extreme statistics of avalanches and universal relations between the power-law exponents of avalanche duration, size and extreme value. These results account for the observed power-law distribution of the maximum amplitudes in acoustic emission experiments of crystal plasticity, but are also broadly applicable to other systems in the mean-field interface depinning universality class, ranging from magnets to earthquakes. The work reported here was performed in collaboration with: Georgios Tsekenis, Michael LeBlanc, Patrick Y Chan, Jon Dantzig, Karin Dahmen, and Nigel Goldenfeld. The work was supported by the Center for Physics of Geological Processes (Norway) through a post-doctoral grant, the National Science Foundation through grant NSF

  20. An Embedded Statistical Method for Coupling Molecular Dynamics and Finite Element Analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saether, E.; Glaessgen, E.H.; Yamakov, V.

    2008-01-01

    The coupling of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with finite element methods (FEM) yields computationally efficient models that link fundamental material processes at the atomistic level with continuum field responses at higher length scales. The theoretical challenge involves developing a seamless connection along an interface between two inherently different simulation frameworks. Various specialized methods have been developed to solve particular classes of problems. Many of these methods link the kinematics of individual MD atoms with FEM nodes at their common interface, necessarily requiring that the finite element mesh be refined to atomic resolution. Some of these coupling approaches also require simulations to be carried out at 0 K and restrict modeling to two-dimensional material domains due to difficulties in simulating full three-dimensional material processes. In the present work, a new approach to MD-FEM coupling is developed based on a restatement of the standard boundary value problem used to define a coupled domain. The method replaces a direct linkage of individual MD atoms and finite element (FE) nodes with a statistical averaging of atomistic displacements in local atomic volumes associated with each FE node in an interface region. The FEM and MD computational systems are effectively independent and communicate only through an iterative update of their boundary conditions. With the use of statistical averages of the atomistic quantities to couple the two computational schemes, the developed approach is referred to as an embedded statistical coupling method (ESCM). ESCM provides an enhanced coupling methodology that is inherently applicable to three-dimensional domains, avoids discretization of the continuum model to atomic scale resolution, and permits finite temperature states to be applied.

  1. Development and Evaluation of a Large-Scale System for Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI). Research and Development Technical Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wixon, D. W.; Housman, E. M.

    The report describes a large-scale computerized system for Selective Dissemination of Information (SDI) developed over the past five years at the U.S. Army Electronics Command to serve its technical personnel. The system, which uses as its document base the current accessions of the Defense Documentation Center, was developed in three phases: (1)…

  2. Reagan's Political Imagery on Arms Control and SDI: Content Analysis in Political Science Using Washington PressText.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garson, G. David

    While President Reagan and Secretary of State Shultz shared the same policy goals, content analysis shows substantial differences with regard to arms control and the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), not only between Reagan and Shultz, but also among Reagan's roles as a political leader, as chief executive, and as statesman to the world…

  3. Can subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) be a competitive irrigation system in the Great Plains region for commodity crops

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) as with all microirrigation systems is typically only used on crops with greater value. In the U.S. Great Plains region, the typical irrigated crops are the cereal and oil seed crops and cotton. These crops have less economic revenue than typical microirrigated cro...

  4. Hydraulic management in a soil moisture controlled SDI wastewater dispersal system in an Alabama black belt soil

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An experimental field moisture controlled subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) system was designed and installed as a field trial in a Vertisol in the Alabama Black Belt region for two years. The system was designed to start hydraulic dosing only when field moisture was below field capacity. Results sho...

  5. A Theory for Emergence of Equatorial Deep Jets from Turbulence based on Statistical Mean State Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzgerald, J.; Farrell, B.

    2013-12-01

    Equatorial deep jets (EDJs) are persistent, zonally-coherent jets found within one degree of the equator in all ocean basins (Luyten and Swallow, 1976). The jets are characterized by a vertically oscillating ('stacked') structure between ~500-2000m depth, with jet amplitudes on the order of 10 cm/s superimposed upon a large-scale background shear flow. EDJs are a striking feature of the equatorial climate system and play an important role in equatorial ocean transport. However, the physical mechanism responsible for the presence of EDJs remains uncertain. Previous theoretical models for EDJs have suggested mechanisms involving the reflection and constructive interference of equatorially trapped waves (Wunsch 1977, McCreary 1984) and the instability of mixed Rossby-gravity waves with EDJs as the fastest-growing eigenfunction (Hua et al. 2008, Eden et al. 2008). In this work we explore the jet formation mechanism and the parameter dependence of EDJ structure in the idealized theoretical model of the stochastically-driven equatorial beta plane. The model is formulated in three ways: 1) Fully nonlinear equations of motion 2) Quasilinear (or mean-field) dynamics 3) Statistical state dynamics employing a second order closure method (stochastic structural stability theory). Results from the three models are compared, and the implications for both the jet formation and equilibration mechanisms, as well as the role of eddy-eddy nonlinearity in the EDJ system, are discussed.

  6. Segmentation of uterine fibroid ultrasound images using a dynamic statistical shape model in HIFU therapy.

    PubMed

    Ni, Bo; He, Fazhi; Yuan, ZhiYong

    2015-12-01

    Segmenting the lesion areas from ultrasound (US) images is an important step in the intra-operative planning of high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU). However, accurate segmentation remains a challenge due to intensity inhomogeneity, blurry boundaries in HIFU US images and the deformation of uterine fibroids caused by patient's breathing or external force. This paper presents a novel dynamic statistical shape model (SSM)-based segmentation method to accurately and efficiently segment the target region in HIFU US images of uterine fibroids. For accurately learning the prior shape information of lesion boundary fluctuations in the training set, the dynamic properties of stochastic differential equation and Fokker-Planck equation are incorporated into SSM (referred to as SF-SSM). Then, a new observation model of lesion areas (named to RPFM) in HIFU US images is developed to describe the features of the lesion areas and provide a likelihood probability to the prior shape given by SF-SSM. SF-SSM and RPFM are integrated into active contour model to improve the accuracy and robustness of segmentation in HIFU US images. We compare the proposed method with four well-known US segmentation methods to demonstrate its superiority. The experimental results in clinical HIFU US images validate the high accuracy and robustness of our approach, even when the quality of the images is unsatisfactory, indicating its potential for practical application in HIFU therapy. PMID:26459767

  7. Dynamical and statistical properties of high-temperature self-propagating fronts: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Rogachev, A S; Baras, F

    2009-02-01

    We present a detailed experimental study of high-temperature self-propagating fronts using image processing techniques. The intrinsic features of the wave propagation are investigated as a function of the combustion temperature TC for a model system made of titanium and silicon powders. Different front behavior is realized by changing the molar ratio x of the mixture Ti+xSi. Outside the range x=[0.3,1.5], no thermal front is propagating while inside, three regimes are observed: steady-state combustion which is characterized by a flat front propagating at constant velocity and two unsteady regimes. The combustion temperature (or the corresponding ratio x) is thus playing the role of bifurcation parameter leading from stationary state to complex behavior. In the titanium-rich mixture, the position of the front oscillates and hot spots propagate along the external border of the sample. At lower amounts of Ti, localized bright regions appear randomly and deform the front profile. The associated dynamical behavior is a relay-race mechanism which becomes more pronounced close to the combustion limit. Methods are developed to characterize the structural and dynamical properties of thermal waves near instabilities, with a special emphasis on the statistical aspects. It is clearly demonstrated that the mesoscopic scale phenomena interfere significantly with the macroscopic behavior. The experiments reveal front behaviors that cannot be described using the usual macroscopic theories. PMID:19391827

  8. Fast computation of statistical uncertainty for spatiotemporal distributions estimated directly from dynamic cone beam SPECT projections

    SciTech Connect

    Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.

    2001-04-09

    The estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from projection data is potentially useful for clinical dynamic single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) studies, particularly in those clinics that have only single-detector systems and thus are not able to perform rapid tomographic acquisitions. Because the radiopharmaceutical distribution changes while the SPECT gantry rotates, projections at different angles come from different tracer distributions. A dynamic image sequence reconstructed from the inconsistent projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry can contain artifacts that lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying regions of interest on the images. If cone beam collimators are used and the focal point of the collimators always remains in a particular transaxial plane, additional artifacts can arise in other planes reconstructed using insufficient projection samples [1]. If the projection samples truncate the patient's body, this can result in additional image artifacts. To overcome these sources of bias in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we and others have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view [2-8]. In our previous work we developed a computationally efficient method for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions from dynamic SPECT projection data [5], which extended Formiconi's least squares algorithm for reconstructing temporally static distributions [9]. In addition, we studied the biases that result from modeling various orders temporal continuity and using various time samplings [5]. the present work, we address computational issues associated with evaluating the statistical uncertainty of

  9. Statistical and dynamical analysis of RNA structures and complexes with applications to nanodevice design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hastings, Whitney Allen

    This dissertation combines rigid body motion kinematics and statistical analysis techniques to extract information from detailed dynamic simulations and large databases of biomolecular structures. This information is then used to quantify and elucidate structural patterns that could be used to design functional nano-structures or provide new targets for ligand-based drug design. In this regard, three particular classes of problems are examined. First, we propose new methods for estimating the stiffness of continuum filament models of helical nucleic acid structures. In this work, molecular dynamics is used to sample RNA helices consisting of several base-pairs fluctuating about an equilibrium position. At equilibrium, each base-pair has a tightly clustered probability distribution and so we can describe the rigid body motion of the helix as the convolution of highly concentrated probability densities on SE(3). Second, the structure and dynamics of a common RNA non-helical motif is classified. We examine several RNA bulges with varying sequences and helix curvature, and establish degrees of similarity (and dissimilarity) in the bulge motif according to the nucleic acid type of the bulge and surrounding base-pairs. Both the "static" X-ray-crystal and NMR structures and the dynamics generated from molecular dynamics simulations are used to quantify the flexibility and conservative aspects of the motif. The resulting classification scheme provides bulge motifs that could be included in a toolbox of "nanostructures" where one could pick the pieces to design a structure that has the needed shape and desired behavior. Finally, we analyze a large collection of adenosine binding sites, focusing on the functional region of the binding site. We provide a new analysis tool that finds spatial patterns in adenosine binding pockets by examining the relative pose (position and orientation) between the adenosine ligand and the amino acids at each binding site. The similarities of

  10. Reproduction of surface air temperature over South Korea using dynamical downscaling and statistical correction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, J.; Lee, J.; Shim, K.; Kim, Y.

    2013-12-01

    In spite of dense meteorological observation conducting over South Korea (The average distance between stations: ~ 12.7km), the detailed topographical effect is not reflected properly due to its mountainous terrains and observation sites mostly situated on low altitudes. A model represents such a topographical effect well, but due to systematic biases in the model, the general temperature distribution is sometimes far different from actual observation. This study attempts to produce a detailed mean temperature distribution for South Korea through a method combining dynamical downscaling and statistical correction. For the dynamical downscaling, a multi-nesting technique is applied to obtain 3-km resolution data with a focus on the domain for the period of 10 years (1999-2008). For the correction of systematic biases, a perturbation method divided into the mean and the perturbation part was used with a different correction method being applied to each part. The mean was corrected by a weighting function while the perturbation was corrected by the self-organizing maps method. The results with correction agree well with the observed pattern compared to those without correction, improving the spatial and temporal correlations as well as the RMSE. In addition, they represented detailed spatial features of temperature including topographic signals, which cannot be expressed properly by gridded observation. Through comparison with in-situ observation with gridded values after objective analysis, it was found that the detailed structure correctly reflected topographically diverse signals that could not be derived from limited observation data. We expect that the correction method developed in this study can be effectively used for the analyses and projections of climate downscaled by using region climate models. Acknowledgements This work was carried out with the support of Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant CATER 2012-3083 and

  11. Dynamical complexity in geomagnetic activity indices: revelations from nonextensive Tsallis statistics, entropies, wavelets and universality concepts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balasis, G.

    2012-04-01

    Dynamical complexity detection for output time series of complex systems is one of the foremost problems in physics, biology, engineering, and economic sciences. Especially in geomagnetism and magnetospheric physics, accurate detection of the dissimilarity between normal and abnormal states (e.g. pre-storm activity and magnetic storms) can vastly improve geomagnetic field modelling as well as space weather forecasting, respectively. Nonextensive statistical mechanics through Tsallis entropy provides a solid theoretical basis for describing and analyzing complex systems out of equilibrium, particularly systems exhibiting long-range correlations or fractal properties. Entropy measures (e.g., Tsallis entropy, Shannon entropy, block entropy, Kolmogorov entropy, T-complexity, and approximate entropy) have been proven effectively applicable for the investigation of dynamical complexity in Dst time series. It has been demonstrated that as a magnetic storm approaches, there is clear evidence of significantly lower complexity in the magnetosphere. The observed higher degree of organization of the system agrees with results previously inferred from fractal analysis via estimates of the Hurst exponent based on wavelet transform. This convergence between entropies and linear analyses provides a more reliable detection of the transition from the quiet time to the storm time magnetosphere, thus showing evidence that the occurrence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. Moreover, based on the general behavior of complex system dynamics it has been recently found that Dst time series exhibit discrete scale invariance which in turn leads to log-periodic corrections to scaling that decorate the pure power law. The latter can be used for the determination of the time of occurrence of an approaching magnetic storm.

  12. Groundwater dynamic in a coastal aquifer using statistical analysis and geochemical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garone, A.; Battistel, M.; Barbieri, M.; Parisse, B.

    2012-04-01

    leaching process, calcite and aragonite are characterized by a kinetics faster than the dissolution of dolomite. A combination of statistic and geochemical techniques proved to be a reliable tool in the interpretation of hydrogeochemical dynamic of a coastal area.

  13. The scientists' opposition to SDI: How political views affect technical analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Tait, G.E.

    1989-01-01

    This study examines the scientists' opposition to President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (1983-1989) with a focus on the relationship between the scientists' political and strategic opposition to ballistic missile defenses (BMD) and their technical doubts about BMD technologies. The study begins with a review of the scientists' increased influence in United State's national security decision making because of the development of atomic weapons. The study then examines the scientists' role in developing and promoting a theory of arms control based upon mutual societal vulnerability. Because of this theory, a large segment of the American scientific community came to believe that the development of ballistic missile defenses would destabilize the strategic balance and therefore took the lead in arguing against BMD deployments. These background chapters conclude with an analysis of the scientists' involvement in the political campaign to stop the proposed Sentinel and Safeguard Anti-Ballistic Missile defense. The study then turns to the contemporary scientific opposition to BMD deployments and the SDI research program. After examining the polls and petitions that identify the scientists opposed to SDI, the study analyzes the tactics that three scientists use in their political effort to prevent BMD deployments. Next, an examination of the political and strategic assumptions behind the scientists' opposition to BMD reveals that a belief in the arms control process and deterrence by punishment, especially Assured Destruction deterrence, with a fear of an action-reaction arms race inspires much of the contemporary opposition to BMD. Finally, the scientists' technical doubts about BMD technologies are analyzed through the prism of peer critique. These critiques show that the scientists opposed to BMD deployments us pessimistic and unrealistic assumptions to skew their technical analysis of BMD technologies.

  14. SdiA, an N-Acylhomoserine Lactone Receptor, Becomes Active during the Transit of Salmonella enterica through the Gastrointestinal Tract of Turtles

    PubMed Central

    Soares, Jitesh A.; Ellermeier, Craig D.; Altier, Craig; Lawhon, Sara D.; Adams, L. Garry; Konjufca, Vjollca; Curtiss, Roy; Slauch, James M.; Ahmer, Brian M. M.

    2008-01-01

    Background LuxR-type transcription factors are typically used by bacteria to determine the population density of their own species by detecting N-acylhomoserine lactones (AHLs). However, while Escherichia and Salmonella encode a LuxR-type AHL receptor, SdiA, they cannot synthesize AHLs. In vitro, it is known that SdiA can detect AHLs produced by other bacterial species. Methodology/Principal Findings In this report, we tested the hypothesis that SdiA detects the AHL-production of other bacterial species within the animal host. SdiA did not detect AHLs during the transit of Salmonella through the gastrointestinal tract of a guinea pig, a rabbit, a cow, 5 mice, 6 pigs, or 12 chickens. However, SdiA was activated during the transit of Salmonella through turtles. All turtles examined were colonized by the AHL-producing species Aeromonas hydrophila. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the normal gastrointestinal microbiota of most animal species do not produce AHLs of the correct type, in an appropriate location, or in sufficient quantities to activate SdiA. However, the results obtained with turtles represent the first demonstration of SdiA activity in animals. PMID:18665275

  15. Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method

    SciTech Connect

    Tao, Yinghua; Chen, Guang-Hong; Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N.; Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A.

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937

  16. Low dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging using a statistical iterative reconstruction method

    PubMed Central

    Tao, Yinghua; Chen, Guang-Hong; Hacker, Timothy A.; Raval, Amish N.; Van Lysel, Michael S.; Speidel, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging has the potential to provide both functional and anatomical information regarding coronary artery stenosis. However, radiation dose can be potentially high due to repeated scanning of the same region. The purpose of this study is to investigate the use of statistical iterative reconstruction to improve parametric maps of myocardial perfusion derived from a low tube current dynamic CT acquisition. Methods: Four pigs underwent high (500 mA) and low (25 mA) dose dynamic CT myocardial perfusion scans with and without coronary occlusion. To delineate the affected myocardial territory, an N-13 ammonia PET perfusion scan was performed for each animal in each occlusion state. Filtered backprojection (FBP) reconstruction was first applied to all CT data sets. Then, a statistical iterative reconstruction (SIR) method was applied to data sets acquired at low dose. Image voxel noise was matched between the low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. CT perfusion maps were compared among the low dose FBP, low dose SIR and high dose FBP reconstructions. Numerical simulations of a dynamic CT scan at high and low dose (20:1 ratio) were performed to quantitatively evaluate SIR and FBP performance in terms of flow map accuracy, precision, dose efficiency, and spatial resolution. Results: Forin vivo studies, the 500 mA FBP maps gave −88.4%, −96.0%, −76.7%, and −65.8% flow change in the occluded anterior region compared to the open-coronary scans (four animals). The percent changes in the 25 mA SIR maps were in good agreement, measuring −94.7%, −81.6%, −84.0%, and −72.2%. The 25 mA FBP maps gave unreliable flow measurements due to streaks caused by photon starvation (percent changes of +137.4%, +71.0%, −11.8%, and −3.5%). Agreement between 25 mA SIR and 500 mA FBP global flow was −9.7%, 8.8%, −3.1%, and 26.4%. The average variability of flow measurements in a nonoccluded region was 16.3%, 24.1%, and 937

  17. Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Hye-Mi; Lee, Myong-In; Min, Young-Mi

    2016-03-01

    This study aims at predicting the seasonal number of typhoons (TY) over the western North Pacific with an Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME)-based dynamical-statistical hybrid model. The hybrid model uses the statistical relationship between the number of TY during the typhoon season (July-October) and the large-scale key predictors forecasted by APCC MME for the same season. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates high prediction skill, with a correlation of 0.67 between the hindcasts and observation for 1982-2008. The cross validation from the hybrid model with individual models participating in MME indicates that there is no single model which consistently outperforms the other models in predicting typhoon number. Although the forecast skill of MME is not always the highest compared to that of each individual model, the skill of MME presents rather higher averaged correlations and small variance of correlations. Given large set of ensemble members from multi-models, a relative operating characteristic score reveals an 82 % (above-) and 78 % (below-normal) improvement for the probabilistic prediction of the number of TY. It implies that there is 82 % (78 %) probability that the forecasts can successfully discriminate between above normal (below-normal) from other years. The forecast skill of the hybrid model for the past 7 years (2002-2008) is more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. Using large set of ensemble members from multi-models, the APCC MME could provide useful deterministic and probabilistic seasonal typhoon forecasts to the end-users in particular, the residents of tropical cyclone-prone areas in the Asia-Pacific region.

  18. Statistical Relation of Dynamic Sar Arc Characteristics To Substorms and Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ievenko, I. B.; Alexeyev, V. N.

    It is known that mid-latitude red arcs (SAR arcs) are related to magnetic storms de- fined by variations of the Dst index. By using data of spectrophotometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga st. CGMC: 57 N; 200 E) we have shown that the occurence and/or brightness of SAR arc take place during the substorm expan- sion phase (Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, V.39, N.6,P.697, 1999). Here we use of SAR arc 700 hours registration data in 1989-2000 and carry out the correlation cou- pling analysis of 630 nm emission intensity in an arc (Im) and the velocity of the arc equatorward movement (Vm) with magnetic indices AL, Dst and ASYH. The follow- ing peculiarities of influence of the substorm and storm to the SAR arc dynamics are revealed: 1) The SAR arc intensity during the weak magnetic storm of Dst-50 nT is defined by the auroral index AL with a correlation coefficient R=-0.45-0.55. The significant rela- tion of arc intensity to Dst is not but it is essential with ASYH-index. It is assumed that the AL-dependence of Im is most likely caused by the considerable contribution of the asymmetric ring currrent arising during a substorm to the SAR arc generation. 2) In the samplings of data for the moderate storms of -50Dst-120 nT the statistically significant dependence (R=-0.5-0.7) of arc luminosity on the ring currrent intensity appears, that is in agreement with early results. In this case, the significant relation of Im to AL remains constant. 3) The velocity of SAR arc equatorward movement is of the significant dependence only on AL-index with R-0.5, that can be indicative of a conditionallity of this phenomenon by penetration of the non- stationary convection electric field to plasmasphere latitudes during a substorm. 4) The latitudinal distribu- tion of SAR arc intensity maximum location by the number of observation hours at the Yakutsk meridian is close to the normal one with a median at c=55 N (L=3) and it is of a half-width 6. It is supported that this

  19. The influence of isospin on both statistical and dynamical aspects of HI reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobotka, Lee

    2003-04-01

    Several aspects of how isospin can influence reactions will be discussed. From the statistical side, I will review how isospin influences the level density and, for example, residue production in fusion reactions. The most interesting aspect here is how the continuum, many-body effects and isospin conspire to make the general question of nuclear level densities at the limits of stability interesting. What is already known about the isospin dependence of nuclear level densities, what can be experimentally considered with the facilities presently available and those on the drawing board will be discussed. The status of our knowledge of how isospin influences heavy-ion reaction dynamics at intermediate energy will be presented. The theoretical argument for isospin fractionation will be reviewed as well as the some of the pit-falls in searching for this effect experimentally. The present ambiguous status of this search is reviewed. Finally, I will address the largest issue in this subfield, the possibility that flow (and other) measurements might contribute to our knowledge of the isopin dependence of the EoS. Our present uncertainty and significance of this aspect of the EoS as well as what specific measurements can be done to address this issue will be presented.

  20. Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Taiping

    1994-01-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations.

  1. Statistical characteristics of dynamics for population migration driven by the economic interests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jie; Wang, Xu-Ming; Zhao, Ning; Hao, Rui

    2016-06-01

    Population migration typically occurs under some constraints, which can deeply affect the structure of a society and some other related aspects. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the characteristics of population migration. Data from the China Statistical Yearbook indicate that the regional gross domestic product per capita relates to the population size via a linear or power-law relation. In addition, the distribution of population migration sizes or relative migration strength introduced here is dominated by a shifted power-law relation. To reveal the mechanism that creates the aforementioned distributions, a dynamic model is proposed based on the population migration rule that migration is facilitated by higher financial gains and abated by fewer employment opportunities at the destination, considering the migration cost as a function of the migration distance. The calculated results indicate that the distribution of the relative migration strength is governed by a shifted power-law relation, and that the distribution of migration distances is dominated by a truncated power-law relation. These results suggest the use of a power-law to fit a distribution may be not always suitable. Additionally, from the modeling framework, one can infer that it is the randomness and determinacy that jointly create the scaling characteristics of the distributions. The calculation also demonstrates that the network formed by active nodes, representing the immigration and emigration regions, usually evolves from an ordered state with a non-uniform structure to a disordered state with a uniform structure, which is evidenced by the increasing structural entropy.

  2. Dynamical and statistical behavior of discrete combustion waves: a theoretical and numerical study.

    PubMed

    Bharath, Naine Tarun; Rashkovskiy, Sergey A; Tewari, Surya P; Gundawar, Manoj Kumar

    2013-04-01

    We present a detailed theoretical and numerical study of combustion waves in a discrete one-dimensional disordered system. The distances between neighboring reaction cells were modeled with a gamma distribution. The results show that the random structure of the microheterogeneous system plays a crucial role in the dynamical and statistical behavior of the system. This is a consequence of the nonlinear interaction of the random structure of the system with the thermal wave. An analysis of the experimental data on the combustion of a gasless system (Ti + xSi) and a wide range of thermite systems was performed in view of the developed model. We have shown that the burning rate of the powder system sensitively depends on its internal structure. The present model allows for reproducing theoretically the experimental data for a wide range of pyrotechnic mixtures. We show that Arrhenius' macrokinetics at combustion of disperse systems can take place even in the absence of Arrhenius' microkinetics; it can have a purely thermal nature and be related to their heterogeneity and to the existence of threshold temperature. It is also observed that the combustion of disperse systems always occurs in the microheterogeneous mode according to the relay-race mechanism. PMID:23679470

  3. Dynamical and statistical behavior of discrete combustion waves: A theoretical and numerical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bharath, Naine Tarun; Rashkovskiy, Sergey A.; Tewari, Surya P.; Gundawar, Manoj Kumar

    2013-04-01

    We present a detailed theoretical and numerical study of combustion waves in a discrete one-dimensional disordered system. The distances between neighboring reaction cells were modeled with a gamma distribution. The results show that the random structure of the microheterogeneous system plays a crucial role in the dynamical and statistical behavior of the system. This is a consequence of the nonlinear interaction of the random structure of the system with the thermal wave. An analysis of the experimental data on the combustion of a gasless system (Ti + xSi) and a wide range of thermite systems was performed in view of the developed model. We have shown that the burning rate of the powder system sensitively depends on its internal structure. The present model allows for reproducing theoretically the experimental data for a wide range of pyrotechnic mixtures. We show that Arrhenius’ macrokinetics at combustion of disperse systems can take place even in the absence of Arrhenius’ microkinetics; it can have a purely thermal nature and be related to their heterogeneity and to the existence of threshold temperature. It is also observed that the combustion of disperse systems always occurs in the microheterogeneous mode according to the relay-race mechanism.

  4. Statistics of initial density perturbations in heavy ion collisions and their fluid dynamic response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Floerchinger, Stefan; Wiedemann, Urs Achim

    2014-08-01

    An interesting opportunity to determine thermodynamic and transport properties in more detail is to identify generic statistical properties of initial density perturbations. Here we study event-by-event fluctuations in terms of correlation functions for two models that can be solved analytically. The first assumes Gaussian fluctuations around a distribution that is fixed by the collision geometry but leads to non-Gaussian features after averaging over the reaction plane orientation at non-zero impact parameter. In this context, we derive a three-parameter extension of the commonly used Bessel-Gaussian event-by-event distribution of harmonic flow coefficients. Secondly, we study a model of N independent point sources for which connected n-point correlation functions of initial perturbations scale like 1 /N n-1. This scaling is violated for non-central collisions in a way that can be characterized by its impact parameter dependence. We discuss to what extent these are generic properties that can be expected to hold for any model of initial conditions, and how this can improve the fluid dynamical analysis of heavy ion collisions.

  5. Exploring the String Landscape: The Dynamics, Statistics, and Cosmology of Parallel Worlds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlqvist, Stein Pontus

    This dissertation explores various facets of the low-energy solutions in string theory known as the string landscape. Three separate questions are addressed - the tunneling dynamics between these vacua, the statistics of their location in moduli space, and the potential realization of slow-roll inflation in the flux potentials generated in string theory. We find that the tunneling transitions that occur between a certain class of supersymmetric vacua related to each other via monodromies around the conifold point are sensitive to the details of warping in the near-conifold regime. We also study the impact of warping on the distribution of vacua near the conifold and determine that while previous work has concluded that the conifold point acts as an accumulation point for vacua, warping highly dilutes the distribution in precisely this regime. Finally we investigate a novel form of inflation dubbed spiral inflation to see if it can be realized near the conifold point. We conclude that for our particular models, spiral inflation seems to rely on a de Sitter-like vacuum energy. As a result, whenever spiral inflation is realized, the inflation is actually driven by a vacuum energy.

  6. Statistical Software.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callamaras, Peter

    1983-01-01

    This buyer's guide to seven major types of statistics software packages for microcomputers reviews Edu-Ware Statistics 3.0; Financial Planning; Speed Stat; Statistics with DAISY; Human Systems Dynamics package of Stats Plus, ANOVA II, and REGRESS II; Maxistat; and Moore-Barnes' MBC Test Construction and MBC Correlation. (MBR)

  7. Statistical dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in southern Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, David; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim; Fink, Andreas; Massmeyer, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Southeast Asia has been identified as one of the hot-spots of climate change. While the projected changes in annual precipitation are comparatively small, there is a clear tendency towards more rainfall in the dry season and an increase in extreme precipitation events. In this study, a statistical dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical Southeast Asia with focus on Vietnam. First, a recent climate (RC) simulation with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a spatial resolution of ~50 km driven by ERA-Interim (1979-2008) is performed for the tropical region of Southeast Asia. For the SDD, six weather types (WTs) are selected for Vietnam during the wet season (April - October) using a k-means cluster analysis of daily zonal wind component in 850 hPa and 200 hPa from the RC run. For each calculated weather type, simulated representatives are selected from the RC run and are then further dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 0.0625° (7 km). By using historical WT frequencies, the simulated representatives are recombined to a high resolution rainfall climatology for the recent climate. It is shown that the SDD is generally able to capture the present day climatology and that the employment of the higher resolved simulated representatives enhances the performance of the SDD. However, an overestimation of rainfall at higher altitudes is found. To obtain future climate projections, an ensemble of eight CMIP5 model members are selected to study precipitation changes. For these projections, WT frequencies of future scenarios under two representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are taken into account for the mid-term scenario (2046-2065) and the long-term scenario (2081-2100). The strongest precipitation changes are found for the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the models indicate a generally increase in precipitation amount in the wet period over Southeast

  8. CAN/SDI: Experience with Multi-Source Computer Based Current Awareness Services in the National Science Library, Ottawa *

    PubMed Central

    Gaffney, Inez M.

    1973-01-01

    CAN/SDI is Canada's national Selective Dissemination of Information Service offering a choice of nine data bases to its scientific and technical community. The system is based on central processing at the National Science Library combined with the utilization of decentralized expertise and resources for profile formulation and user education. Its greatest strength lies in its wide interdisciplinary quality. The major advantage of centralized processing of many data bases is that Canadians need learn only one method of profile formulation to access many files. A breakdown of services used confirms that a single tape service does not cover all the information requirements of most users. On the average each profile accesses approximately 1.5 data bases. Constant subscriber growth and a low cancellation rate indicate that CAN/SDI is and will continue to be an important element in Canada's information system. PMID:4740714

  9. Sensitivity Properties of a Biosphere Model Based on BATS and a Statistical-Dynamical Climate Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Taiping

    1994-06-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model.The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations.

  10. Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, T. )

    1994-06-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations. 46 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  12. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    PubMed

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  13. Prominence and Filament Eruptions Observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory: Statistical Properties, Kinematics, and Online Catalog

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, P. I.; Su, Y. N.; Schanche, N.; Evans, K. E.; Su, C.; McKillop, S.; Reeves, K. K.

    2015-06-01

    We present a statistical study of prominence and filament eruptions observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Several properties are recorded for 904 events that were culled from the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) and incorporated into an online catalog for general use. These characteristics include the filament and eruption type, eruption symmetry and direction, apparent twisting and writhing motions, and the presence of vertical threads and coronal cavities. Associated flares and white-light coronal mass ejections (CME) are also recorded. Total rates are given for each property along with how they differ among filament types. We also examine the kinematics of 106 limb events to characterize the distinct slow- and fast-rise phases often exhibited by filament eruptions. The average fast-rise onset height, slow-rise duration, slow-rise velocity, maximum field-of-view (FOV) velocity, and maximum FOV acceleration are 83 Mm, 4.4 hours, 2.1 km s-1, 106 km s-1, and 111 m s-2, respectively. All parameters exhibit lognormal probability distributions similar to that of CME speeds. A positive correlation between latitude and fast-rise onset height is found, which we attribute to a corresponding negative correlation in the average vertical magnetic field gradient, or decay index, estimated from potential field source surface (PFSS) extrapolations. We also find the decay index at the fast-rise onset point to be 1.1 on average, consistent with the critical instability threshold theorized for straight current channels. Finally, we explore relationships between the derived kinematics properties and apparent twisting motions. We find that events with evident twist have significantly faster CME speeds and significantly lower fast-rise onset heights, suggesting relationships between these values and flux rope helicity.

  14. The sexually dimorphic on the Y-chromosome gene (sdY) is a conserved male-specific Y-chromosome sequence in many salmonids

    PubMed Central

    Yano, Ayaka; Nicol, Barbara; Jouanno, Elodie; Quillet, Edwige; Fostier, Alexis; Guyomard, René; Guiguen, Yann

    2013-01-01

    All salmonid species investigated to date have been characterized with a male heterogametic sex-determination system. However, as these species do not share any Y-chromosome conserved synteny, there remains a debate on whether they share a common master sex-determining gene. In this study, we investigated the extent of conservation and evolution of the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) master sex-determining gene, sdY (sexually dimorphic on the Y-chromosome), in 15 different species of salmonids. We found that the sdY sequence is highly conserved in all salmonids and that sdY is a male-specific Y-chromosome gene in the majority of these species. These findings demonstrate that most salmonids share a conserved sex-determining locus and also strongly suggest that sdY may be this conserved master sex-determining gene. However, in two whitefish species (subfamily Coregoninae), sdY was found both in males and females, suggesting that alternative sex-determination systems may have also evolved in this family. Based on the wide conservation of sdY as a male-specific Y-chromosome gene, efficient and easy molecular sexing techniques can now be developed that will be of great interest for studying these economically and environmentally important species. PMID:23745140

  15. Development of a current collection loss management system for SDI homopolar power supplies

    SciTech Connect

    Hannan, W.F. III.

    1987-01-01

    High speed, high power density current collection systems have been identified as an enabling technology required to construct homopolar power supplies to meet SDI missions. This work is part of a three-year effort directed towards the analysis, experimental verification, and prototype construction of a current collection system designed to operated continuously at 2 kA/cm{sup 2}, at a rubbing speed of 200 m/s, and with acceptable losses in a space environment. To data, no system has achieved these conditions simultaneously. This is the annual report covering the first year period of performance on DOE contract DE-AC03-86SF16518. Major areas covered include design and construction of a cryogenically-cooled brush test rig, design of a high speed brush test rig, loss analysis of the current collection system, and an application study which defines the air core homopolar construction necessary to achieve the goal of 80--90 kW/kg generator power density. 15 figs.

  16. Development of a current collection loss management system for SDI homopolar power supplies

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, D.W.

    1989-01-01

    High speed, high power density current collection systems have been identified as an enabling technology required to construct homopolar power supplies to meet SDI missions. This work is part of a three-year effort directed towards the analysis, experimental verification, and prototype construction of a current collection system designed to operate continuously at 2 kA/cm{sup 2}, at a rubbing speed of 200 m/s, and with acceptable losses in a space environment. To data, no system has achieved these conditions simultaneously. This is the annual report covering the second year period of performance on DOE contract DE-AC03-86SF16518. Major areas covered include design, construction and operation of a cryogenically cooled brush test rig, design and construction of a high speed brush test rig, optimization study for homopolar machines, loss analysis of the current collection system, and an application study which defines the air-core homopolar construction necessary to achieve the goal of 80--90 kW/kg generator power density. 17 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. A review of gas-cooled reactor concepts for SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative) applications

    SciTech Connect

    Marshall, A.C.

    1989-08-01

    We have completed a review of multimegawatt gas-cooled reactor concepts proposed for SDI applications. Our study concluded that the principal reason for considering gas-cooled reactors for burst-mode operation was the potential for significant system mass savings over closed-cycle systems if open-cycle gas-cooled operation (effluent exhausted to space) is acceptable. The principal reason for considering gas-cooled reactors for steady-state operation is that they may represent a lower technology risk than other approaches. In the review, nine gas-cooled reactor concepts were compared to identify the most promising. For burst-mode operation, the NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Application) derivative reactor concept emerged as a strong first choice since its performance exceeds the anticipated operational requirements and the technology has been demonstrated and is retrievable. Although the NERVA derivative concepts were determined to be the lead candidates for the Multimegawatt Steady-State (MMWSS) mode as well, their lead over the other candidates is not as great as for the burst mode. 90 refs., 2 figs., 10 tabs.

  18. An in-house alternative to traditional SDI services at Argonne National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Noel, R.E.; Dominiak, R.R.

    1997-02-20

    Selective Dissemination of Information (SDIs) are based on automated, well-defined programs that regularly produce precise, relevant bibliographic information. Librarians have typically turned to information vendors such as Dialog or STN international to design and implement these searches for their users in business, academia, and the science community. Because Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) purchases the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Current Contents tapes (all subject areas excluding Humanities). ANL scientists enjoy the benefit of in-house developments with BASISplus software programming and no longer need to turn to outside companies for reliable SDI service. The database and its customized services are known as ACCESS (Argonne Current Contents Electronic Search Service). Through collaboration with librarians on Boolean logic and selection of terms, users can now design their own personal profiles to comb the new data, thereby avoiding service fees from outside providers. Based on the feedback from scientists, it seems that this new service can help transform the ANL distributed libraries into more efficient central functioning entities that better serve the users. One goal is to eliminate the routing of paper copies of many new journal issues to different library locations for users to browse; instead users may be expected to rely more on electronic dissemination of both table of contents and customized SDIs for new scientific and technical information.

  19. The Effect on Prospective Teachers of the Learning Environment Supported by Dynamic Statistics Software

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koparan, Timur

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the effect on the achievement and attitudes of prospective teachers is examined. With this aim ahead, achievement test, attitude scale for statistics and interviews were used as data collection tools. The achievement test comprises 8 problems based on statistical data, and the attitude scale comprises 13 Likert-type items. The study…

  20. Statistical significance of task related deep brain EEG dynamic changes in the time-frequency domain.

    PubMed

    Chládek, J; Brázdil, M; Halámek, J; Plešinger, F; Jurák, P

    2013-01-01

    We present an off-line analysis procedure for exploring brain activity recorded from intra-cerebral electroencephalographic data (SEEG). The objective is to determine the statistical differences between different types of stimulations in the time-frequency domain. The procedure is based on computing relative signal power change and subsequent statistical analysis. An example of characteristic statistically significant event-related de/synchronization (ERD/ERS) detected across different frequency bands following different oddball stimuli is presented. The method is used for off-line functional classification of different brain areas. PMID:24109865

  1. Quantitative recurrence statistics and convergence to an extreme value distribution for non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, M. P.; Rabassa, P.; Sterk, A. E.

    2016-08-01

    For non-uniformly hyperbolic dynamical systems we consider the time series of maxima along typical orbits. Using ideas based upon quantitative recurrence time statistics we prove convergence of the maxima (under suitable normalization) to an extreme value distribution, and obtain estimates on the rate of convergence. We show that our results are applicable to a range of examples, and include new results for Lorenz maps, certain partially hyperbolic systems, and non-uniformly expanding systems with sub-exponential decay of correlations. For applications where analytic results are not readily available we show how to estimate the rate of convergence to an extreme value distribution based upon numerical information of the quantitative recurrence statistics. We envisage that such information will lead to more efficient statistical parameter estimation schemes based upon the block-maxima method.

  2. Independent yields from the photofission of sup 232 Th, and the Z sub p and statistical-dynamic models

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, J.R.; Richardson, A.E. )

    1991-09-01

    Independent fission yields were measured for {sup 82}Br, {sup 96}Nb, {sup 124}Sb, and {sup 126}Sb produced by photofission of {sup 232}Th with 27-MeV peak bremsstrahlung and for {sup 136}Cs at 11, 15, and 27 MeV. Upper limits for the independent yields for {sup 86}Rb and {sup 134}Cs and mass yields for mass chains 125 and 127 were also measured for {sup 232}Th photofission at 27 MeV. Various extensions of the {ital Z}{sub {ital p}} charge-distribution model were found to give generally good agreement with experimental measurements in the asymmetric mass regions, but less satisfactory agreement in the symmetric region. A statistical charge-distribution model incorporating post-fission dynamics correlated well with experimental values in both symmetric and asymmetric regions. The statistical-dynamic model naturally predicted pairing and shell effects which were in good agreement with experimentally observed effects. One important outcome of the statistical-dynamic model calculations was the production of a linear shape on the wings of the charge-distribution curve when proximity proton transfer after scission was incorporated into the model. Such linear shapes have previously been experimentally observed without explanation.

  3. Statistical Tools for the Interpretation of Enzootic West Nile virus Transmission Dynamics.

    PubMed

    Caillouët, Kevin A; Robertson, Suzanne

    2016-01-01

    Interpretation of enzootic West Nile virus (WNV) surveillance indicators requires little advanced mathematical skill, but greatly enhances the ability of public health officials to prescribe effective WNV management tactics. Stepwise procedures for the calculation of mosquito infection rates (IR) and vector index (VI) are presented alongside statistical tools that require additional computation. A brief review of advantages and important considerations for each statistic's use is provided. PMID:27188561

  4. Emerging Processes in Flood Regime Dynamics: Evidence from Spatiotemporal Statistics and a Nonlinear Dynamical Model of Coevolution.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Blöschl, Günter

    2015-04-01

    Emerging Processes in Flood Regime Dynamics are evaluated on the basis of symmetry breaks in the spatiotemporal sensitivity of flood regimes to changes in annual precipitation and a new dynamical model of flood regime change under nonlinearly interacting landscape-climate dynamics. The spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is performed at regional scale using data from 804 catchments in Austria from 1976 to 2008. Results show that flood peaks change in a more responsive manner with spatial (regional) than with temporal (decadal) variability. Space-wise a 10% increase in precipitation leads to a 23% increase in flood peaks in Austria, whereas timewise a 10% increase in precipitation leads to an increase of just 6% in flood peaks. Looking at hydroclimatic regions in particular, catchments from stable dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal flood responses to changes in precipitation (spatiotemporal symmetry) and low landscape-climate codependence. This suggests that these regions are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those responses (symmetry breaks) and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is an emergent behaviour of the coupled system, stemming from the nonlinear interactions in the coevolving hydroclimate system. A dynamic coevolution index is then proposed relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities, which need to be taken into account in hydrological space-time trading. Coevolution is expressed here by the scale interaction between slow and fast dynamics, represented respectively by spatial and temporal characteristics. The diagnostic assessment of coevolution is complemented by a stylised nonlinear dynamical model of landscape-climate coevolution, in which landform evolution processes take place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics), and climate adjusts in years to decades (fast

  5. Argonne CW Linac (ACWL) -- Legacy from SDI and opportunities for the future

    SciTech Connect

    McMichael, G.E.; Yule, T.J.

    1994-08-01

    The former Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) invested significant resources over a 6-year period to develop and build an accelerator to demonstrate the launching of a cw beam with characteristics suitable for a space-based Neutral Particle Beam (NPD) system. This accelerator, the CWDD (Continuous Wave Deuterium Demonstrator) accelerator, was designed to accelerate 80 mA cw of D{sup {minus}} to 7.5 MeV. A considerable amount of hardware was constructed and installed in the Argonne-based facility, and major performance milestones were achieved before program funding from the Department of Defense ended in October 1993. Existing assets have been turned over to Argonne. Assets include a fully functional 200 kV cw D{sup {minus}} injector, a cw RFQ that has been tuned, leak checked and aligned, beam lines and a high-power beam stop, all installed in a shielded vault with appropriate safety and interlock systems. In addition, there are two high power (1 MW) cw rf amplifiers and all the ancillary power, cooling and control systems required for a high-power accelerator system. The SDI mission required that the CWDD accelerator structures operate at cryogenic temperatures (26 K), a requirement that placed severe limitations on operating period (CWDD would have provided 20 seconds of cw beam every 90 minutes). However, the accelerator structures were designed for full-power rf operation with water cooling and ACWL (Argonne Continuous Wave Linac), the new name for CWDD in its water-cooled, positive-ion configuration, will be able to operate continuously. Project status and achievements will be reviewed. Preliminary design of a proton conversion for the RFQ, and other proposals for turning ACWL into a testbed for cw-linac engineering, will be discussed.

  6. Argonne CW Linac (ACWL)—legacy from SDI and opportunities for the future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMichael, G. E.; Yule, T. J.

    1995-09-01

    The former Strategic Defense Initiative Organization (SDIO) invested significant resources over a 6-year period to develop and build an accelerator to demonstrate the launching of a cw beam with characteristics suitable for a space-based Neutral Particle Beam (NPB) system. This accelerator, the CWDD (Continuous Wave Deuterium Demonstrator) accelerator, was designed to accelerate 80 mA cw of D- to 7.5 MeV. A considerable amount of hardware was constructed and installed in the Argonne-based facility, and major performance milestones were achieved before program funding from the Department of Defense ended in October 1993. Existing assets have been turned over to Argonne. Assets include a fully functional 200 kV cw D- injector, a cw RFQ that has been tuned, leak checked and aligned, beam lines and a high-power beam stop, all installed in a shielded vault with appropriate safety and interlock systems. In addition, there are two high power (1 MW) cw rf amplifiers and all the ancillary power, cooling and control systems required for a high-power accelerator system. The SDI mission required that the CWDD accelerator structures operate at cryogenic temperatures (26K), a requirement that placed severe limitations on operating period (CWDD would have provided 20 seconds of cw beam every 90 minutes). However, the accelerator structures were designed for full-power rf operation with water cooling and ACWL (Argonne Continuous Wave Linac), the new name for CWDD in its water-cooled, positive-ion configuration, will be able to operate continuously. Project status and achievements will be reviewed. Preliminary design of a proton conversion for the RFQ, and other proposals for turning ACWL into a testbed for cw-linac engineering, will be discussed.

  7. The SdiA-regulated gene srgE encodes a type III secreted effector.

    PubMed

    Habyarimana, Fabien; Sabag-Daigle, Anice; Ahmer, Brian M M

    2014-06-01

    Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is a food-borne pathogen that causes severe gastroenteritis. The ability of Salmonella to cause disease depends on two type III secretion systems (T3SSs) encoded in two distinct Salmonella pathogenicity islands, 1 and 2 (SPI1 and SPI2, respectively). S. Typhimurium encodes a solo LuxR homolog, SdiA, which can detect the acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs) produced by other bacteria and upregulate the rck operon and the srgE gene. SrgE is predicted to encode a protein of 488 residues with a coiled-coil domain between residues 345 and 382. In silico studies have provided conflicting predictions as to whether SrgE is a T3SS substrate. Therefore, in this work, we tested the hypothesis that SrgE is a T3SS effector by two methods, a β-lactamase activity assay and a split green fluorescent protein (GFP) complementation assay. SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 40, 100, 150, or 300 was indeed expressed and translocated into host cells, but SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 400 or 488 was not expressed, suggesting interference by the coiled-coil domain. Similarly, SrgE with GFP S11 fused to residue 300, but not to residue 488, was expressed and translocated into host cells. With both systems, translocation into host cells was dependent upon SPI2. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that srgE is found only within Salmonella enterica subspecies. It is found sporadically within both typhoidal and nontyphoidal serovars, although the SrgE protein sequences found within typhoidal serovars tend to cluster separately from those found in nontyphoidal serovars, suggesting functional diversification. PMID:24727228

  8. The SdiA-Regulated Gene srgE Encodes a Type III Secreted Effector

    PubMed Central

    Habyarimana, Fabien; Sabag-Daigle, Anice

    2014-01-01

    Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is a food-borne pathogen that causes severe gastroenteritis. The ability of Salmonella to cause disease depends on two type III secretion systems (T3SSs) encoded in two distinct Salmonella pathogenicity islands, 1 and 2 (SPI1 and SPI2, respectively). S. Typhimurium encodes a solo LuxR homolog, SdiA, which can detect the acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs) produced by other bacteria and upregulate the rck operon and the srgE gene. SrgE is predicted to encode a protein of 488 residues with a coiled-coil domain between residues 345 and 382. In silico studies have provided conflicting predictions as to whether SrgE is a T3SS substrate. Therefore, in this work, we tested the hypothesis that SrgE is a T3SS effector by two methods, a β-lactamase activity assay and a split green fluorescent protein (GFP) complementation assay. SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 40, 100, 150, or 300 was indeed expressed and translocated into host cells, but SrgE with β-lactamase fused to residue 400 or 488 was not expressed, suggesting interference by the coiled-coil domain. Similarly, SrgE with GFP S11 fused to residue 300, but not to residue 488, was expressed and translocated into host cells. With both systems, translocation into host cells was dependent upon SPI2. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that srgE is found only within Salmonella enterica subspecies. It is found sporadically within both typhoidal and nontyphoidal serovars, although the SrgE protein sequences found within typhoidal serovars tend to cluster separately from those found in nontyphoidal serovars, suggesting functional diversification. PMID:24727228

  9. Effects of temporal modeling on the statistical uncertainty of spatiotemporal distributions estimated directly from dynamic SPECT projections

    SciTech Connect

    Reutter, Bryan W.; Gullberg, Grant T.; Huesman, Ronald H.

    2001-04-30

    Artifacts can result when reconstructing a dynamic image sequence from inconsistent single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) projections acquired by a slowly rotating gantry. The artifacts can lead to biases in kinetic parameters estimated from time-activity curves generated by overlaying volumes of interest on the images. To overcome these biases in conventional image based dynamic data analysis, we have been investigating the estimation of time-activity curves and kinetic model parameters directly from dynamic SPECT projection data by modeling the spatial and temporal distribution of the radiopharmaceutical throughout the projected field of view. In previous work we developed computationally efficient methods for fully four-dimensional (4-D) direct estimation of spatiotemporal distributions [1] and their statistical uncertainties [2] from dynamic SPECT projection data, using a spatial segmentation and temporal B-splines. In addition, we studied the bias that results from modeling various orders of temporal continuity and using various time samplings [1]. In the present work, we use the methods developed in [1, 2] and Monte Carlo simulations to study the effects of the temporal modeling on the statistical variability of the reconstructed distributions.

  10. Statistical dynamics of classical systems: A self-consistent field approach

    SciTech Connect

    Grzetic, Douglas J. Wickham, Robert A.; Shi, An-Chang

    2014-06-28

    We develop a self-consistent field theory for particle dynamics by extremizing the functional integral representation of a microscopic Langevin equation with respect to the collective fields. Although our approach is general, here we formulate it in the context of polymer dynamics to highlight satisfying formal analogies with equilibrium self-consistent field theory. An exact treatment of the dynamics of a single chain in a mean force field emerges naturally via a functional Smoluchowski equation, while the time-dependent monomer density and mean force field are determined self-consistently. As a simple initial demonstration of the theory, leaving an application to polymer dynamics for future work, we examine the dynamics of trapped interacting Brownian particles. For binary particle mixtures, we observe the kinetics of phase separation.

  11. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  12. Many-body entropies, correlations, and emergence of statistical relaxation in interaction quench dynamics of ultracold bosons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lode, Axel U. J.; Chakrabarti, Barnali; Kota, Venkata K. B.

    2015-09-01

    We study the quantum many-body dynamics and the entropy production triggered by an interaction quench in a system of N =10 interacting identical bosons in an external one-dimensional harmonic trap. The multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree method for bosons (MCTDHB) is used for solving the time-dependent Schrödinger equation at a high level of accuracy. We consider many-body entropy measures such as the Shannon information entropy, number of principal components, and occupation entropy that are computed from the time-dependent many-body basis set used in MCTDHB. These measures quantify relevant physical features such as irregular or chaotic dynamics, statistical relaxation, and thermalization. We monitor the entropy measures as a function of time and assess how they depend on the interaction strength. For larger interaction strength, the many-body information and occupation entropies approach the value predicted for the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble of random matrices. This implies statistical relaxation. The basis states of MCTDHB are explicitly time-dependent and optimized by the variational principle in a way that minimizes the number of significantly contributing ones. It is therefore a nontrivial fact that statistical relaxation prevails in MCTDHB computations. Moreover, we demonstrate a fundamental connection between the production of entropy, the buildup of correlations and loss of coherence in the system. Our findings imply that mean-field approaches such as the time-dependent Gross-Pitaevskii equation cannot capture statistical relaxation and thermalization because they neglect correlations. Since the coherence and correlations are experimentally accessible, their present connection to many-body entropies can be scrutinized to detect statistical relaxation. In this work we use the recent recursive software implementation of the MCTDHB (R-MCTDHB).

  13. Statistical and Dynamical Properties of Covariant Lyapunov Vectors in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model - Error dynamics.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vannitsem, Stéphane; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    We study the dynamics of the error in a simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean model using the formalism of covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs), which link physically-based directions of perturbations to growth/decay rates. The model is obtained via a severe truncation of quasi-geostrophic equations for the two fluids, and includes a simple yet physically meaningful representation of their dynamical/thermodynamical coupling. The model has 36 degrees of freedom, and the parameters are chosen so that a chaotic behaviour is observed. Furthermore, for some specific coupling strength a Low-Frequency Variability is developing reminiscent of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Different behaviors of the error were found depending on the specific norm chosen to measure the amplitude of the error. For the L2 norm, a super-exponential behavior is found, inducing a mean error amplification in the stable subspace described by the CLVs dominating the error dynamics within the ocean. This behavior disappears when the logarithmic norm is used, except for a few CLVs in the highly degenerate subspace defined by CLVs 6-10 for which complicate mixing and amplifications arise. Furthermore the long term dynamics of the error considerably changes when the LFV is developing in the system. When the LFV is not developing, the error saturation arises on different time scales associated to the variables under considerations, while once the LFV is present, the error along all variables of the model - and in particular of the atmosphere - is saturating on the longer time scales associated with the dynamics of the ocean. The implications of this error dynamics on the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system at short, medium and long term are discussed.

  14. On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frossard, L.; Rieder, H. E.; Ribatet, M.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Di Rocco, S.; Davison, A. C.; Peter, T.

    2012-05-01

    We use models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone on spatial scales to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes. The r-largest order statistics method is used for pointwise analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively). For the corresponding mean value analysis a pointwise autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) is used. The statistical models include important atmospheric covariates to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El~Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the ozone distribution, respectively described by means and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates.

  15. Dynamic Range Adaptation to Sound Level Statistics in the Auditory Nerve

    PubMed Central

    Wen, Bo; Wang, Grace I.; Dean, Isabel; Delgutte, Bertrand

    2009-01-01

    The auditory system operates over a vast range of sound pressure levels (100–120 dB) with nearly constant discrimination ability across most of the range, well exceeding the dynamic range of most auditory neurons (20–40 dB). Dean et al. (Nat. Neurosci. 8:1684, 2005) have reported that the dynamic range of midbrain auditory neurons adapts to the distribution of sound levels in a continuous, dynamic stimulus by shifting towards the most frequently occurring level. Here we show that dynamic range adaptation, distinct from classic firing rate adaptation, also occurs in primary auditory neurons in anesthetized cats for tone and noise stimuli. Specifically, the range of sound levels over which firing rates of auditory-nerve (AN) fibers grows rapidly with level shifts nearly linearly with the most probable levels in a dynamic sound stimulus. This dynamic range adaptation was observed for fibers with all characteristic frequencies and spontaneous discharge rates. As in the midbrain, dynamic range adaptation improved the precision of level coding by the AN fiber population for the prevailing sound levels in the stimulus. However, dynamic range adaptation in the AN was weaker than in the midbrain, and not sufficient (0.25 dB/dB on average for broadband noise) to prevent a significant degradation of the precision of level coding by the AN population above 60 dB SPL. These findings suggest that adaptive processing of sound levels first occurs in the auditory periphery and is enhanced along the auditory pathway. PMID:19889991

  16. Rare events statistics of random walks on networks: localisation and other dynamical phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Bacco, Caterina; Guggiola, Alberto; Kühn, Reimer; Paga, Pierre

    2016-05-01

    Rare event statistics for random walks on complex networks are investigated using the large deviation formalism. Within this formalism, rare events are realised as typical events in a suitably deformed path-ensemble, and their statistics can be studied in terms of spectral properties of a deformed Markov transition matrix. We observe two different types of phase transition in such systems: (i) rare events which are singled out for sufficiently large values of the deformation parameter may correspond to localised modes of the deformed transition matrix; (ii) ‘mode-switching transitions’ may occur as the deformation parameter is varied. Details depend on the nature of the observable for which the rare event statistics is studied, as well as on the underlying graph ensemble. In the present paper we report results on rare events statistics for path averages of random walks in Erdős–Rényi and scale free networks. Large deviation rate functions and localisation properties are studied numerically. For observables of the type considered here, we also derive an analytical approximation for the Legendre transform of the large deviation rate function, which is valid in the large connectivity limit. It is found to agree well with simulations.

  17. DYNAMICS OF INTERPERSONAL INTERACTION, A STUDY OF CONSULTATION AMONG GRADUATE STUDENTS IN A BEGINNING STATISTICS COURSE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    PIERCE, DOUGLAS R.

    SELF-REPORTS OF INTERACTION AMONG 100 GRADUATE STUDENTS IN TWO SECTIONS OF A FIVE-WEEK SUMMER SESSION COURSE IN ELEMENTARY STATISTICS WERE ANALYZED IN AN ATTEMPT TO INCREASE UNDERSTANDING OF SOCIAL ASSOCIATION AMONG HIGHLY SPECIALIZED PERSONS. SUMMARIES WERE COMPILED FOR 1203 INSTANCES OF INTERACTION--408 OF MUTUAL STUDY-HELP, 388 OF HELP GIVEN TO…

  18. Static Numbers to Dynamic Statistics: Designing a Policy-Friendly Social Policy Indicator Framework

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahn, Sang-Hoon; Choi, Young Jun; Kim, Young-Mi

    2012-01-01

    In line with the economic crisis and rapid socio-demographic changes, the interest in "social" and "well-being" indicators has been revived. Social indicator movements of the 1960s resulted in the establishment of social indicator statistical frameworks; that legacy has remained intact in many national governments and international organisations.…

  19. Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling of regional climate in China: Present climate evaluations and future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Gao, Hongxia; Wang, Xueyuan; Wu, Jian

    2016-03-01

    Statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling are two approaches to generate high-resolution regional climate models based on the large-scale information from either reanalysis data or global climate models. In this study, these two downscaling methods are used to simulate the surface climate of China and compared. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is cross validated and used to downscale the regional climate of China. Then, the downscaled historical climate of 1981-2000 and future climate of 2041-2060 are compared with that from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the European Center-Hamburg atmosphere model and the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and the L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with the Nucleus for European Modelling of the ocean, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR). The SDSM can reproduce the surface temperature characteristics of the present climate in China, whereas the WRF tends to underestimate the surface temperature over most of China. Both the SDSM and WRF require further work to improve their ability to downscale precipitation. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods produce future surface temperatures for 2041-2060 that are markedly different from the historical climatology. However, the changes in projected precipitation differ between the two downscaling methods. Indeed, large uncertainties remain in terms of the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes over China.

  20. Statistical properties of plasmaspheric hiss derived from Van Allen Probes data and their effects on radiation belt electron dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, W.; Ma, Q.; Thorne, R. M.; Bortnik, J.; Kletzing, C. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Hospodarsky, G. B.; Nishimura, Y.

    2015-05-01

    Plasmaspheric hiss is known to play an important role in controlling the overall structure and dynamics of radiation belt electrons inside the plasmasphere. Using newly available Van Allen Probes wave data, which provide excellent coverage in the entire inner magnetosphere, we evaluate the global distribution of the hiss wave frequency spectrum and wave intensity for different levels of substorm activity. Our statistical results show that observed hiss peak frequencies are generally lower than the commonly adopted value (~550 Hz), which was in frequent use, and that the hiss wave power frequently extends below 100 Hz, particularly at larger L shells (> ~3) on the dayside during enhanced levels of substorm activity. We also compare electron pitch angle scattering rates caused by hiss using the new statistical frequency spectrum and the previously adopted Gaussian spectrum and find that the differences are up to a factor of ~5 and are dependent on energy and L shell. Moreover, the new statistical hiss wave frequency spectrum including wave power below 100 Hz leads to increased pitch angle scattering rates by a factor of ~1.5 for electrons above ~100 keV at L~5, although their effect is negligible at L ≤ 3. Consequently, we suggest that the new realistic hiss wave frequency spectrum should be incorporated into future modeling of radiation belt electron dynamics.

  1. Characterizing dynamic hysteresis and fractal statistics of chaotic two-phase flow and application to fuel cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burkholder, Michael B.; Litster, Shawn

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we analyze the stability of two-phase flow regimes and their transitions using chaotic and fractal statistics, and we report new measurements of dynamic two-phase pressure drop hysteresis that is related to flow regime stability and channel water content. Two-phase flow dynamics are relevant to a variety of real-world systems, and quantifying transient two-phase flow phenomena is important for efficient design. We recorded two-phase (air and water) pressure drops and flow images in a microchannel under both steady and transient conditions. Using Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents to characterize the steady-state pressure fluctuations, we develop a new, measurable regime identification criteria based on the dynamic stability of the two-phase pressure signal. We also applied a new experimental technique by continuously cycling the air flow rate to study dynamic hysteresis in two-phase pressure drops, which is separate from steady-state hysteresis and can be used to understand two-phase flow development time scales. Using recorded images of the two-phase flow, we show that the capacitive dynamic hysteresis is related to channel water content and flow regime stability. The mixed-wettability microchannel and in-channel water introduction used in this study simulate a polymer electrolyte fuel cell cathode air flow channel.

  2. Combined statistical and dynamical assessment of simulated vegetation–rainfall in North Africa during the mid-Holocene*

    SciTech Connect

    Notaro, Michael; Wang, Yi; Liu, Zhengyu; Gallimore, Robert; Levis, Samuel

    2008-01-05

    A negative feedback of vegetation cover on subsequent annual precipitation is simulated for the mid-Holocene over North Africa using a fully coupled general circulation model with dynamic vegetation, FOAM-LPJ (Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model-Lund Potsdam Jena Model). By computing a vegetation feedback parameter based on lagged autocovariances, the simulated impact of North African vegetation on precipitation is statistically quantified. The feedback is also dynamically assessed through initial value ensemble experiments, in which North African grass cover is initially reduced and the climatic response analyzed. The statistical and dynamical assessments of the negative vegetation feedback agree in sign and relative magnitude for FOAM-LPJ. The negative feedback on annual precipitation largely results from a competition between bare soil evaporation and plant transpiration, with increases in the former outweighing reductions in the latter given reduced grass cover. This negative feedback weakens and eventually reverses sign over time during a transient simulation from the mid-Holocene to present. A similar, but weaker, negative feedback is identified in Community Climate System Model Version 2 (CCSM2) over North Africa for the mid-Holocene.

  3. Statistical connection of binomial photon counting and photon averaging in high dynamic range beam-scanning microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Muir, Ryan D.; Kissick, David J.; Simpson, Garth J.

    2012-01-01

    Data from photomultiplier tubes are typically analyzed using either counting or averaging techniques, which are most accurate in the dim and bright signal limits, respectively. A statistical means of adjoining these two techniques is presented by recovering the Poisson parameter from averaged data and relating it to the statistics of binomial counting from Kissick et al. [Anal. Chem. 82, 10129 (2010)]. The point at which binomial photon counting and averaging have equal signal to noise ratios is derived. Adjoining these two techniques generates signal to noise ratios at 87% to approaching 100% of theoretical maximum across the full dynamic range of the photomultiplier tube used. The technique is demonstrated in a second harmonic generation microscope. PMID:22535131

  4. Statistical connection of binomial photon counting and photon averaging in high dynamic range beam-scanning microscopy.

    PubMed

    Muir, Ryan D; Kissick, David J; Simpson, Garth J

    2012-04-23

    Data from photomultiplier tubes are typically analyzed using either counting or averaging techniques, which are most accurate in the dim and bright signal limits, respectively. A statistical means of adjoining these two techniques is presented by recovering the Poisson parameter from averaged data and relating it to the statistics of binomial counting from Kissick et al. [Anal. Chem. 82, 10129 (2010)]. The point at which binomial photon counting and averaging have equal signal to noise ratios is derived. Adjoining these two techniques generates signal to noise ratios at 87% to approaching 100% of theoretical maximum across the full dynamic range of the photomultiplier tube used. The technique is demonstrated in a second harmonic generation microscope. PMID:22535131

  5. Statistical properties and Hurst-Kolmogorov dynamics in climatic proxy data and temperature reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koukas, Ioannis; Koukoravas, Vasilis; Mantesi, Konstantina; Sakellari, Katerina; Xanthopoulou, Themis-Demetra; Zarkadoulas, Akis; Markonis, Yannis; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2014-05-01

    The statistical properties of over 300 different proxy records of the last two thousand years derived from the PAGES 2k database years are stochastically analysed. Analyses include estimation of their first four moments and their autocorrelation functions (ACF), as well as the determination of the presence of Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour (known also as long term persistence). The data are investigated in groups according to their proxy type and location, while their statistical properties are also compared to those of the final temperature reconstructions. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  6. Loss of p21{sup Sdi1} expression in senescent cells after DNA damage accompanied with increase of miR-93 expression and reduced p53 interaction with p21{sup Sdi1} gene promoter

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Ok Ran; Lim, In Kyoung

    2011-04-08

    Highlights: {yields} Reduced p21 expression in senescent cells treated with DNA damaging agents. {yields} Increase of [{sup 3}H]thymidine and BrdU incorporations in DNA damaged-senescent cells. {yields} Upregulation of miR-93 expression in senescent cells in response to DSB. {yields} Failure of p53 binding to p21 promoter in senescent cells in response to DSB. {yields} Molecular mechanism of increased cancer development in aged than young individuals. -- Abstract: To answer what is a critical event for higher incidence of tumor development in old than young individuals, primary culture of human diploid fibroblasts were employed and DNA damage was induced by doxorubicin or X-ray irradiation. Response to the damage was different between young and old cells; loss of p21{sup sdi1} expression in spite of p53{sup S15} activation in old cells along with [{sup 3}H]thymidine and BrdU incorporation, but not in young cells. The phenomenon was confirmed by other tissue fibroblasts obtained from different donor ages. Induction of miR-93 expression and reduced p53 binding to p21 gene promoter account for loss of p21{sup sdi1} expression in senescent cells after DNA damage, suggesting a mechanism of in vivo carcinogenesis in aged tissue without repair arrest.

  7. On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frossard, L.; Rieder, H. E.; Ribatet, M.; Staehelin, J.; Maeder, J. A.; Di Rocco, S.; Davison, A. C.; Peter, T.

    2013-01-01

    We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column ozone to analyze "fingerprints" of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The results show that "fingerprints", i.e., significant influence, of dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the "bulk" and the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland, the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results

  8. Universal renormalization-group dynamics at the onset of chaos in logistic maps and nonextensive statistical mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldovin, F.; Robledo, A.

    2002-10-01

    We uncover the dynamics at the chaos threshold μ∞ of the logistic map and find that it consists of trajectories made of intertwined power laws that reproduce the entire period-doubling cascade that occurs for μ<μ∞. We corroborate this structure analytically via the Feigenbaum renormalization-group (RG) transformation and find that the sensitivity to initial conditions has precisely the form of a q exponential, of which we determine the q index and the q-generalized Lyapunov coefficient λq. Our results are an unequivocal validation of the applicability of the nonextensive generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics to critical points of nonlinear maps.

  9. Synthesis of N-acyl homoserine lactone analogues reveals strong activators of SdiA, the Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium LuxR homologue.

    PubMed

    Janssens, Joost C A; Metzger, Kristine; Daniels, Ruth; Ptacek, Dave; Verhoeven, Tine; Habel, Lothar W; Vanderleyden, Jos; De Vos, Dirk E; De Keersmaecker, Sigrid C J

    2007-01-01

    N-Acyl homoserine lactones (AHLs) are molecules that are synthesized and detected by many gram-negative bacteria to monitor the population density, a phenomenon known as quorum sensing. Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is an exceptional species since it does not synthesize its own AHLs, while it does encode a LuxR homologue, SdiA, which enables this bacterium to detect AHLs that are produced by other species. To obtain more information about the specificity of the ligand binding by SdiA, we synthesized and screened a limited library of AHL analogues. We identified two classes of analogues that are strong activators of SdiA: the N-(3-oxo-acyl)-homocysteine thiolactones (3O-AHTLs) and the N-(3-oxo-acyl)-trans-2-aminocyclohexanols. To our knowledge, this is the first report of compounds (the 3O-AHTLs) that are able to activate a LuxR homologue at concentrations that are lower than the concentrations of the most active AHLs. SdiA responds with greatest sensitivity to AHTLs that have a keto modification at the third carbon atom and an acyl chain that is seven or eight carbon atoms long. The N-(3-oxo-acyl)-trans-2-aminocyclohexanols were found to be less sensitive to deactivation by lactonase and alkaline pH than the 3O-AHTLs and the AHLs are. We also examined the activity of our library with LuxR of Vibrio fischeri and identified three new inhibitors of LuxR. Finally, we performed preliminary binding experiments which suggested that SdiA binds its activators reversibly. These results increase our understanding of the specificity of the SdiA-ligand interaction, which could have uses in the development of anti-quorum-sensing-based antimicrobials. PMID:17085703

  10. Statistical physics approach to categorize biologic signals: From heart rate dynamics to DNA sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, C.-K.; Yang, Albert C.-C.; Goldberger, Ary L.

    2007-03-01

    We recently proposed a novel approach to categorize information carried by symbolic sequences based on their usage of repetitive patterns. A simple quantitative index to measure the dissimilarity between two symbolic sequences can be defined. This information dissimilarity index, defined by our formula, is closely related to the Shannon entropy and rank order of the repetitive patterns in the symbolic sequences. Here we discuss the underlying statistical physics assumptions of this dissimilarity index. We use human cardiac interbeat interval time series and DNA sequences as examples to illustrate the applicability of this generic approach to real-world problems.

  11. Statistical structuring theory in parametrically excitable dynamical systems with a Gaussian pump

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klyatskin, V. I.; Koshel, K. V.

    2016-03-01

    Based on the idea of the statistical topography, we analyze the problem of emergence of stochastic structure formation in linear and quasilinear problems described by first-order partial differential equations. The appearance of a parametric excitation on the background of a Gaussian pump is a specific feature of these problems. We obtain equations for the probability density of the solutions of these equations, whence it follows that the stochastic structure formation emerges with probability one, i.e., for almost every realization of the random parameters of the medium.

  12. Dynamic changes in brewing yeast cells in culture revealed by statistical analyses of yeast morphological data.

    PubMed

    Ohnuki, Shinsuke; Enomoto, Kenichi; Yoshimoto, Hiroyuki; Ohya, Yoshikazu

    2014-03-01

    The vitality of brewing yeasts has been used to monitor their physiological state during fermentation. To investigate the fermentation process, we used the image processing software, CalMorph, which generates morphological data on yeast mother cells and bud shape, nuclear shape and location, and actin distribution. We found that 248 parameters changed significantly during fermentation. Successive use of principal component analysis (PCA) revealed several important features of yeast, providing insight into the dynamic changes in the yeast population. First, PCA indicated that much of the observed variability in the experiment was summarized in just two components: a change with a peak and a change over time. Second, PCA indicated the independent and important morphological features responsible for dynamic changes: budding ratio, nucleus position, neck position, and actin organization. Thus, the large amount of data provided by imaging analysis can be used to monitor the fermentation processes involved in beer and bioethanol production. PMID:24012106

  13. Statistical study of plasma sheet dynamics using ISEE 1 and 2 energetic particle flux data

    SciTech Connect

    Dandouras, J.; Re-grave-accentme, H.; Saint-Marc, A.; Sauvaud, J.A.; Parks, G.K.; Anderson, K.A.; Lin, R.P.

    1986-06-01

    During magnetospheric substorms, satellites embedded in the plasma sheet often detect transient dropouts of plasma and energetic particle fluxes, a phenomemon generally interpreted as indicating the exit of the satellite into the magnetospheric lobe due to a plasma sheet thinning. In order to determine the large-scale dynamics of the near-earth plasma sheet during substorms, three satellite years of ISEE 1 and 2 energetic particle flux data (1.5 and 6 keV), corresponding to 461 particle flux dropouts, have been analyzed. The principal results show that flux dropouts can be observed anywhere in the nightside plasma sheet, independent of the satellite's geocentric distance (for R>12R/sub E/), magnetic local time (except near the magnetospheric flanks) and estimated distance to the neutral sheet. Furthermore, flux dropouts can be observed for any combination of the AE index value and the satellite's distance to the neutral sheet, which shows that the plasma sheet is dynamic even during weak magnetospheric disturbances. Substorms during which the satellites, though situated in the plasma sheet, did not detect any flux dropout, have also been examined, and it is found that the plasma sheet thickness can locally remain unaffected by substorm development for AE index values up to at least 1000 nT. The predictions of the two major plasma sheet thinning models, i.e., the near-tail X-type magnetic neutral line formation model and the MHD rarefaction wave propagation model, are compared to the experimental results, and it is concluded that neither model can account for all of the observations; plasma sheet dynamics are more complex. Phenomenologically, this study suggests that multiple pinching of the plasma sheet and/or large-amplitude three-dimensional plasma sheet oscillations are important in plasma sheet dynamics.

  14. Statistical analysis of global wind dynamics in vigorous Rayleigh-Bénard convection.

    PubMed

    Petschel, K; Wilczek, M; Breuer, M; Friedrich, R; Hansen, U

    2011-08-01

    Experimental and numerical studies of thermal convection have shown that sufficiently vigorous convective flows exhibit a large-scale thermal wind component sweeping along small-scale thermal boundary layer instabilities. A characteristic feature of these flows is an intermittent behavior in the form of irregular reversals in the orientation of the large-scale circulation. There have been several attempts toward a better understanding and description of the phenomenon of flow reversals, but so far most of these models are based on a statistical analysis of few-point measurements or on simplified theoretical assumptions. The analysis of long-term data sets (>5×10(5) turnover times τ(t)=d/u(rms)) obtained by numerical simulations of turbulent two-dimensional Rayleigh-Bénard convection allows us to get a more comprehensive view of the spatio-temporal flow behavior. By means of a global statistical analysis of the characteristic spatial modes of the flow we extract information about the stability of dominant large-scale modes as well as the reversal paths in state subspace. We examine probability density functions and drift vector fields of two-dimensional state subspaces spanned by different large-scale spatial modes. This also provides information about the coexistence of dominant modes. PMID:21929092

  15. Dynamics and Statistical Mechanics of Rotating and non-Rotating Vortical Flows

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, Chjan

    2013-12-18

    Three projects were analyzed with the overall aim of developing a computational/analytical model for estimating values of the energy, angular momentum, enstrophy and total variation of fluid height at phase transitions between disordered and self-organized flow states in planetary atmospheres. It is believed that these transitions in equilibrium statistical mechanics models play a role in the construction of large-scale, stable structures including super-rotation in the Venusian atmosphere and the formation of the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. Exact solutions of the spherical energy-enstrophy models for rotating planetary atmospheres by Kac's method of steepest descent predicted phase transitions to super-rotating solid-body flows at high energy to enstrophy ratio for all planetary spins and to sub-rotating modes if the planetary spin is large enough. These canonical statistical ensembles are well-defined for the long-range energy interactions that arise from 2D fluid flows on compact oriented manifolds such as the surface of the sphere and torus. This is because in Fourier space available through Hodge theory, the energy terms are exactly diagonalizable and hence has zero range, leading to well-defined heat baths.

  16. The writer independent online handwriting recognition system frog on hand and cluster generative statistical dynamic time warping.

    PubMed

    Bahlmann, Claus; Burkhardt, Hans

    2004-03-01

    In this paper, we give a comprehensive description of our writer-independent online handwriting recognition system frog on hand. The focus of this work concerns the presentation of the classification/training approach, which we call cluster generative statistical dynamic time warping (CSDTW). CSDTW is a general, scalable, HMM-based method for variable-sized, sequential data that holistically combines cluster analysis and statistical sequence modeling. It can handle general classification problems that rely on this sequential type of data, e.g., speech recognition, genome processing, robotics, etc. Contrary to previous attempts, clustering and statistical sequence modeling are embedded in a single feature space and use a closely related distance measure. We show character recognition experiments of frog on hand using CSDTW on the UNIPEN online handwriting database. The recognition accuracy is significantly higher than reported results of other handwriting recognition systems. Finally, we describe the real-time implementation of frog on hand on a Linux Compaq iPAQ embedded device. PMID:15376878

  17. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    SciTech Connect

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun -Young; Lim, Young -Kwon; Prabhat, -

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more

  18. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; et al

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so

  19. Double precision errors in the logistic map: statistical study and dynamical interpretation.

    PubMed

    Oteo, J A; Ros, J

    2007-09-01

    The nature of the round-off errors that occur in the usual double precision computation of the logistic map is studied in detail. Different iterative regimes from the whole panoply of behaviors exhibited in the bifurcation diagram are examined, histograms of errors in trajectories given, and for the case of fully developed chaos an explicit formula is found. It is shown that the statistics of the largest double precision error as a function of the map parameter is characterized by jumps whose location is determined by certain boundary crossings in the bifurcation diagram. Both jumps and locations seem to present geometric convergence characterized by the two first Feigenbaum constants. Eventually, a comparison with Benford's law for the distribution of the leading digit of compilation of numbers is discussed. PMID:17930330

  20. Dynamics and statistics of noise-like pulses in modelocked lasers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donovan, Graham M.

    2015-08-01

    Noise-like pulses and optical rogue waves are connected nonlinear phenomena which can occur in passively modelocked laser systems. Here we consider a range of model systems to explore the conditions under which noise-like pulses can be expected to occur, and further when the resulting statistics meet the optical rogue wave criteria. We show, via a series of careful simulations, that noise-like pulses and optical rogue waves can arise either separately or together, and that they may emerge from standard soliton-like solutions via different mechanisms. We also propose a quantitative definition of noise-like pulses, and explore the issues carefully in convergence testing numerical methods for such systems.

  1. DYNAMIC STABILITY OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: STATISTICALLY INCONCLUSIVE RESULTS FROM ENSEMBLE INTEGRATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Zeebe, Richard E.

    2015-01-01

    Due to the chaotic nature of the solar system, the question of its long-term stability can only be answered in a statistical sense, for instance, based on numerical ensemble integrations of nearby orbits. Destabilization of the inner planets, leading to close encounters and/or collisions can be initiated through a large increase in Mercury's eccentricity, with a currently assumed likelihood of ∼1%. However, little is known at present about the robustness of this number. Here I report ensemble integrations of the full equations of motion of the eight planets and Pluto over 5 Gyr, including contributions from general relativity. The results show that different numerical algorithms lead to statistically different results for the evolution of Mercury's eccentricity (e{sub M}). For instance, starting at present initial conditions (e{sub M}≃0.21), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over 5 Gyr is, on average, significantly higher in symplectic ensemble integrations using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates and stricter error control. In contrast, starting at a possible future configuration (e{sub M}≃0.53), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over the subsequent 500 Myr is, on average, significantly lower using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates. For example, the probability for e{sub M} to increase beyond 0.53 over 500 Myr is >90% (Jacobi) versus only 40%-55% (heliocentric). This poses a dilemma because the physical evolution of the real system—and its probabilistic behavior—cannot depend on the coordinate system or the numerical algorithm chosen to describe it. Some tests of the numerical algorithms suggest that symplectic integrators using heliocentric coordinates underestimate the odds for destabilization of Mercury's orbit at high initial e{sub M}.

  2. Dynamic Stability of the Solar System: Statistically Inconclusive Results from Ensemble Integrations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeebe, Richard E.

    2015-01-01

    Due to the chaotic nature of the solar system, the question of its long-term stability can only be answered in a statistical sense, for instance, based on numerical ensemble integrations of nearby orbits. Destabilization of the inner planets, leading to close encounters and/or collisions can be initiated through a large increase in Mercury's eccentricity, with a currently assumed likelihood of ~1%. However, little is known at present about the robustness of this number. Here I report ensemble integrations of the full equations of motion of the eight planets and Pluto over 5 Gyr, including contributions from general relativity. The results show that different numerical algorithms lead to statistically different results for the evolution of Mercury's eccentricity (e_M}). For instance, starting at present initial conditions (e_M}≃ 0.21), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over 5 Gyr is, on average, significantly higher in symplectic ensemble integrations using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates and stricter error control. In contrast, starting at a possible future configuration (e_M}≃ 0.53), Mercury's maximum eccentricity achieved over the subsequent 500 Myr is, on average, significantly lower using heliocentric rather than Jacobi coordinates. For example, the probability for e_M} to increase beyond 0.53 over 500 Myr is >90% (Jacobi) versus only 40%-55% (heliocentric). This poses a dilemma because the physical evolution of the real system—and its probabilistic behavior—cannot depend on the coordinate system or the numerical algorithm chosen to describe it. Some tests of the numerical algorithms suggest that symplectic integrators using heliocentric coordinates underestimate the odds for destabilization of Mercury's orbit at high initial e_M}.

  3. Precipitation and temperature space-time variability and extremes in the Mediterranean region: evaluation of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flaounas, Emmanouil; Drobinski, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Bastin, Sophie; Lebeaupin-Brossier, Cindy; Stéfanon, Marc; Borga, Marco; Calvet, Jean-Christophe

    2013-06-01

    This study evaluates how statistical and dynamical downscaling models as well as combined approach perform in retrieving the space-time variability of near-surface temperature and rainfall, as well as their extremes, over the whole Mediterranean region. The dynamical downscaling model used in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with varying land-surface models and resolutions (20 and 50 km) and the statistical tool is the Cumulative Distribution Function-transform (CDF-t). To achieve a spatially resolved downscaling over the Mediterranean basin, the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) gridded dataset is used for calibration and evaluation of the downscaling models. In the frame of HyMeX and MED-CORDEX international programs, the downscaling is performed on ERA-I reanalysis over the 1989-2008 period. The results show that despite local calibration, CDF-t produces more accurate spatial variability of near-surface temperature and rainfall with respect to ECA&D than WRF which solves the three-dimensional equation of conservation. This first suggests that at 20-50 km resolutions, these three-dimensional processes only weakly contribute to the local value of temperature and precipitation with respect to local one-dimensional processes. Calibration of CDF-t at each individual grid point is thus sufficient to reproduce accurately the spatial pattern. A second explanation is the use of gridded data such as ECA&D which smoothes in part the horizontal variability after data interpolation and damps the added value of dynamical downscaling. This explains partly the absence of added-value of the 2-stage downscaling approach which combines statistical and dynamical downscaling models. The temporal variability of statistically downscaled temperature and rainfall is finally strongly driven by the temporal variability of its forcing (here ERA-Interim or WRF simulations). CDF-t is thus efficient as a bias correction tool but does not show any

  4. Assessing spatial coupling in complex population dynamics using mutual prediction and continuity statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.M.; Moniz, L.; Nichols, J.D.; Pecora, L.M.; Cooch, E.

    2005-01-01

    A number of important questions in ecology involve the possibility of interactions or ?coupling? among potential components of ecological systems. The basic question of whether two components are coupled (exhibit dynamical interdependence) is relevant to investigations of movement of animals over space, population regulation, food webs and trophic interactions, and is also useful in the design of monitoring programs. For example, in spatially extended systems, coupling among populations in different locations implies the existence of redundant information in the system and the possibility of exploiting this redundancy in the development of spatial sampling designs. One approach to the identification of coupling involves study of the purported mechanisms linking system components. Another approach is based on time series of two potential components of the same system and, in previous ecological work, has relied on linear cross-correlation analysis. Here we present two different attractor-based approaches, continuity and mutual prediction, for determining the degree to which two population time series (e.g., at different spatial locations) are coupled. Both approaches are demonstrated on a one-dimensional predator?prey model system exhibiting complex dynamics. Of particular interest is the spatial asymmetry introduced into the model as linearly declining resource for the prey over the domain of the spatial coordinate. Results from these approaches are then compared to the more standard cross-correlation analysis. In contrast to cross-correlation, both continuity and mutual prediction are clearly able to discern the asymmetry in the flow of information through this system.

  5. How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Triet S; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

    2015-04-01

    It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix. PMID:25854234

  6. Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: A comparison of statistical stylized facts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parisi, Daniel R.; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

  7. How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Nguyen, Triet S.; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

    2015-04-07

    It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix.

  8. How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Triet S.; Nanguneri, Ravindra; Parkhill, John

    2015-04-01

    It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix.

  9. A new dynamic approach for statistical optimization of GNSS radio occultation bending angles for optimal climate monitoring utility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Kirchengast, G.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Wu, S.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Zhang, S.; Carter, B. A.; Zhang, K.

    2013-12-01

    Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based radio occultation (RO) is a satellite remote sensing technique providing accurate profiles of the Earth's atmosphere for weather and climate applications. Above about 30 km altitude, however, statistical optimization is a critical process for initializing the RO bending angles in order to optimize the climate monitoring utility of the retrieved atmospheric profiles. Here we introduce an advanced dynamic statistical optimization algorithm, which uses bending angles from multiple days of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) short-range forecast and analysis fields, together with averaged-observed bending angles, to obtain background profiles and associated error covariance matrices with geographically varying background uncertainty estimates on a daily updated basis. The new algorithm is evaluated against the existing Wegener Center Occultation Processing System version 5.4 (OPSv5.4) algorithm, using several days of simulated MetOp and observed CHAMP and COSMIC data, for January and July conditions. We find the following for the new method's performance compared to OPSv5.4: 1.) it significantly reduces random errors (standard deviations), down to about half their size, and leaves less or about equal residual systematic errors (biases) in the optimized bending angles; 2.) the dynamic (daily) estimate of the background error correlation matrix alone already improves the optimized bending angles; 3.) the subsequently retrieved refractivity profiles and atmospheric (temperature) profiles benefit by improved error characteristics, especially above about 30 km. Based on these encouraging results, we work to employ similar dynamic error covariance estimation also for the observed bending angles and to apply the method to full months and subsequently to entire climate data records.

  10. SU-E-J-261: Statistical Analysis and Chaotic Dynamics of Respiratory Signal of Patients in BodyFix

    SciTech Connect

    Michalski, D; Huq, M; Bednarz, G; Lalonde, R; Yang, Y; Heron, D

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To quantify respiratory signal of patients in BodyFix undergoing 4DCT scan with and without immobilization cover. Methods: 20 pairs of respiratory tracks recorded with RPM system during 4DCT scan were analyzed. Descriptive statistic was applied to selected parameters of exhale-inhale decomposition. Standardized signals were used with the delay method to build orbits in embedded space. Nonlinear behavior was tested with surrogate data. Sample entropy SE, Lempel-Ziv complexity LZC and the largest Lyapunov exponents LLE were compared. Results: Statistical tests show difference between scans for inspiration time and its variability, which is bigger for scans without cover. The same is for variability of the end of exhalation and inhalation. Other parameters fail to show the difference. For both scans respiratory signals show determinism and nonlinear stationarity. Statistical test on surrogate data reveals their nonlinearity. LLEs show signals chaotic nature and its correlation with breathing period and its embedding delay time. SE, LZC and LLE measure respiratory signal complexity. Nonlinear characteristics do not differ between scans. Conclusion: Contrary to expectation cover applied to patients in BodyFix appears to have limited effect on signal parameters. Analysis based on trajectories of delay vectors shows respiratory system nonlinear character and its sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Reproducibility of respiratory signal can be evaluated with measures of signal complexity and its predictability window. Longer respiratory period is conducive for signal reproducibility as shown by these gauges. Statistical independence of the exhale and inhale times is also supported by the magnitude of LLE. The nonlinear parameters seem more appropriate to gauge respiratory signal complexity since its deterministic chaotic nature. It contrasts with measures based on harmonic analysis that are blind for nonlinear features. Dynamics of breathing, so crucial for

  11. Molecular Dynamics Simulation and Statistics Analysis Reveals the Defense Response Mechanism in Plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhichao; Zhao, Yunjie; Zeng, Chen; Computational Biophysics Lab Team

    As the main protein of the bacterial flagella, flagellin plays an important role in perception and defense response. The newly discovered locus, FLS2, is ubiquitously expressed. FLS2 encodes a putative receptor kinase and shares many homologies with some plant resistance genes and even with some components of immune system of mammals and insects. In Arabidopsis, FLS2 perception is achieved by the recognition of epitope flg22, which induces FLS2 heteromerization with BAK1 and finally the plant immunity. Here we use both analytical methods such as Direct Coupling Analysis (DCA) and Molecular Dynamics (MD) Simulations to get a better understanding of the defense mechanism of FLS2. This may facilitate a redesign of flg22 or de-novo design for desired specificity and potency to extend the immune properties of FLS2 to other important crops and vegetables.

  12. A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghil, M.; Balgovind, R.; Kalnay-Rivas, E.

    1981-01-01

    A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.

  13. The influence of lexical statistics on temporal lobe cortical dynamics during spoken word listening

    PubMed Central

    Cibelli, Emily S.; Leonard, Matthew K.; Johnson, Keith; Chang, Edward F.

    2015-01-01

    Neural representations of words are thought to have a complex spatio-temporal cortical basis. It has been suggested that spoken word recognition is not a process of feed-forward computations from phonetic to lexical forms, but rather involves the online integration of bottom-up input with stored lexical knowledge. Using direct neural recordings from the temporal lobe, we examined cortical responses to words and pseudowords. We found that neural populations were not only sensitive to lexical status (real vs. pseudo), but also to cohort size (number of words matching the phonetic input at each time point) and cohort frequency (lexical frequency of those words). These lexical variables modulated neural activity from the posterior to anterior temporal lobe, and also dynamically as the stimuli unfolded on a millisecond time scale. Our findings indicate that word recognition is not purely modular, but relies on rapid and online integration of multiple sources of lexical knowledge. PMID:26072003

  14. The influence of lexical statistics on temporal lobe cortical dynamics during spoken word listening.

    PubMed

    Cibelli, Emily S; Leonard, Matthew K; Johnson, Keith; Chang, Edward F

    2015-08-01

    Neural representations of words are thought to have a complex spatio-temporal cortical basis. It has been suggested that spoken word recognition is not a process of feed-forward computations from phonetic to lexical forms, but rather involves the online integration of bottom-up input with stored lexical knowledge. Using direct neural recordings from the temporal lobe, we examined cortical responses to words and pseudowords. We found that neural populations were not only sensitive to lexical status (real vs. pseudo), but also to cohort size (number of words matching the phonetic input at each time point) and cohort frequency (lexical frequency of those words). These lexical variables modulated neural activity from the posterior to anterior temporal lobe, and also dynamically as the stimuli unfolded on a millisecond time scale. Our findings indicate that word recognition is not purely modular, but relies on rapid and online integration of multiple sources of lexical knowledge. PMID:26072003

  15. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mbugua, L. N.; Mwita, P. N.

    2013-02-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  16. Lagrangian and Eulerian Statistics of Vorticity Dynamics in Turbulent Stratified Shear Flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobitz, Frank; Schneider, Kai; Farge, Marie

    2015-11-01

    The Lagrangian and Eulerian time-rate of change statistics of vorticity in homogeneous turbulence with shear and stable stratification are studied. Direct numerical simulations are performed, in which the Richardson number is varied from Ri=0, corresponding to unstratified shear flow, to Ri=1, corresponding to strongly stratified shear flow. The probability density functions (pdfs) of both Lagrangian and Eulerian time-rates of change show a strong influence on the Richardson number. The Lagrangian time-rate of change pdf has a stretched-exponential shape due to the vortex stretching and tilting term in the equation for fluctuating vorticity. The shape of the Eulerian time-rate of change pdf was also observed to be stretched-exponential and the extreme values for the Eulerian time-rate of change are larger than those observed for the Lagrangian counterpart due to the nonlinear term in the vorticity equation. The Lagrangian and Eulerian acceleration pdfs are mainly determined by the pressure-gradient and nonlinear terms in the Navier-Stokes equation, respectively. The Lagrangian time-rate of change pdf of fluctuating density does not show a stretched exponential shape, while its Eulerian counterpart does due to the nonlinear term in the in the density advection-diffusion equation.

  17. A classical trajectory study of the photodissociation of T{sub 1} acetaldehyde: The transition from impulsive to statistical dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, Keiran C.; Crittenden, Deborah L.; Kable, Scott H.; Jordan, Meredith J.T.

    2006-01-28

    Previous experimental and theoretical studies of the radical dissociation channel of T{sub 1} acetaldehyde show conflicting behavior in the HCO and CH{sub 3} product distributions. To resolve these conflicts, a full-dimensional potential-energy surface for the dissociation of CH{sub 3}CHO into HCO and CH{sub 3} fragments over the barrier on the T{sub 1} surface is developed based on RO-CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ(DZ) ab initio calculations. 20 000 classical trajectories are calculated on this surface at each of five initial excess energies, spanning the excitation energies used in previous experimental studies, and translational, vibrational, and rotational distributions of the radical products are determined. For excess energies near the dissociation threshold, both the HCO and CH{sub 3} products are vibrationally cold; there is a small amount of HCO rotational excitation and little CH{sub 3} rotational excitation, and the reaction energy is partitioned dominantly (>90% at threshold) into relative translational motion. Close to threshold the HCO and CH{sub 3} rotational distributions are symmetrically shaped, resembling a Gaussian function, in agreement with observed experimental HCO rotational distributions. As the excess energy increases the calculated HCO and CH{sub 3} rotational distributions are observed to change from a Gaussian shape at threshold to one more resembling a Boltzmann distribution, a behavior also seen by various experimental groups. Thus the distribution of energy in these rotational degrees of freedom is observed to change from nonstatistical to apparently statistical, as excess energy increases. As the energy above threshold increases all the internal and external degrees of freedom are observed to gain population at a similar rate, broadly consistent with equipartitioning of the available energy at the transition state. These observations generally support the practice of separating the reaction dynamics into two reservoirs: an impulsive reservoir, fed

  18. The non-statistical dynamics of the 18O + 32O2 isotope exchange reaction at two energies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Wyngarden, Annalise L.; Mar, Kathleen A.; Quach, Jim; Nguyen, Anh P. Q.; Wiegel, Aaron A.; Lin, Shi-Ying; Lendvay, Gyorgy; Guo, Hua; Lin, Jim J.; Lee, Yuan T.; Boering, Kristie A.

    2014-08-01

    The dynamics of the 18O(3P) + 32O2 isotope exchange reaction were studied using crossed atomic and molecular beams at collision energies (Ecoll) of 5.7 and 7.3 kcal/mol, and experimental results were compared with quantum statistical (QS) and quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations on the O3(X1A') potential energy surface (PES) of Babikov et al. [D. Babikov, B. K. Kendrick, R. B. Walker, R. T. Pack, P. Fleurat-Lesard, and R. Schinke, J. Chem. Phys. 118, 6298 (2003)]. In both QS and QCT calculations, agreement with experiment was markedly improved by performing calculations with the experimental distribution of collision energies instead of fixed at the average collision energy. At both collision energies, the scattering displayed a forward bias, with a smaller bias at the lower Ecoll. Comparisons with the QS calculations suggest that 34O2 is produced with a non-statistical rovibrational distribution that is hotter than predicted, and the discrepancy is larger at the lower Ecoll. If this underprediction of rovibrational excitation by the QS method is not due to PES errors and/or to non-adiabatic effects not included in the calculations, then this collision energy dependence is opposite to what might be expected based on collision complex lifetime arguments and opposite to that measured for the forward bias. While the QCT calculations captured the experimental product vibrational energy distribution better than the QS method, the QCT results underpredicted rotationally excited products, overpredicted forward-bias and predicted a trend in the strength of forward-bias with collision energy opposite to that measured, indicating that it does not completely capture the dynamic behavior measured in the experiment. Thus, these results further underscore the need for improvement in theoretical treatments of dynamics on the O3(X1A') PES and perhaps of the PES itself in order to better understand and predict non-statistical effects in this reaction and in the formation

  19. Statistical and dynamical downscaling in CORDEX-Africa: differing views on the regional climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hewitson, Bruce; Lennard, Christopher; Jack, Christopher; Coop, Lisa

    2013-04-01

    The need for credible regional climate change projections for use in adaptation actions and decision making is well recognised. The CORDEX activity has evolved in large part as a response to this need. For the most part, CORDEX has so far been dominated by regional climate modelling (RCM) activities. However, implicit in CORDEX is the use of statistical downscaling (SD) as a complement to RCMs, although the SD activities lag that of the RCMs. For Africa, the CORDEX RCM work is well advanced with the control climate simulations completed, and a number of RCM-based projections also available. The early results indicate the RCMs produce a credible representation of the regional climate when aggregated in time and/or space, and provide an initial multimodal suite of regional climate change projections for Africa. The SD activities are catching up with this process and the emerging challenge is how to integrate and compare the results from the two downscaling methods. The two approaches, SD and RCMs, have respective strengths and weaknesses, but are considered in the literature to be of comparable overall skill. Where climate change stationarity is not considered a major issue, such as on timescales out to perhaps 2050, it is arguable that SD (comprehensively undertaken) may possibly be more skillful. From the perspective of users of regional scale projections, decision makers and policy developers, it is critical to compare, and assess the relative strengths of the methods on a regional basis. To avoid confusion the contradictions and/or robust messages emerging from the two methods needs to be clearly understood and articulated. The inter-comparison between the RCMs is already the subject of a number of papers, and here we present an initial comparison of early results between the SD and the envelope of RCM downscaling for CORDEX-Africa. Using the available SD results, we consider where the overlap and/or marked differences lie between the two methods. The focus is

  20. Kinetics, Statistics, and Energetics of Lipid Membrane Electroporation Studied by Molecular Dynamics Simulations

    PubMed Central

    Böckmann, Rainer A.; de Groot, Bert L.; Kakorin, Sergej; Neumann, Eberhard; Grubmüller, Helmut

    2008-01-01

    Membrane electroporation is the method to directly transfer bioactive substances such as drugs and genes into living cells, as well as preceding electrofusion. Although much information on the microscopic mechanism has been obtained both from experiment and simulation, the existence and nature of possible intermediates is still unclear. To elucidate intermediates of electropore formation by direct comparison with measured prepore formation kinetics, we have carried out 49 atomistic electroporation simulations on a palmitoyl-oleoyl-phosphatidylcholine bilayer for electric field strengths between 0.04 and 0.7 V/nm. A statistical theory is developed to facilitate direct comparison of experimental (macroscopic) prepore formation kinetics with the (single event) preporation times derived from the simulations, which also allows us to extract an effective number of lipids involved in each pore formation event. A linear dependency of the activation energy for prepore formation on the applied field is seen, with quantitative agreement between experiment and simulation. The distribution of preporation times suggests a four-state pore formation model. The model involves a first intermediate characterized by a differential tilt of the polar lipid headgroups on both leaflets, and a second intermediate (prepore), where a polar chain across the bilayer is formed by 3–4 lipid headgroups and several water molecules, thereby providing a microscopic explanation for the polarizable volume derived previously from the measured kinetics. An average pore radius of 0.47 ± 0.15 nm is seen, in favorable agreement with conductance measurements and electrooptical experiments of lipid vesicles. PMID:18469089

  1. SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION (SDI). VOLUME I, PILOT TEST AT U.S. ARMY NATICK LABORATORIES. FINAL REPORT. ARMY TECHNICAL LIBRARY IMPROVEMENT STUDIES (ATLIS), REPORT NO. 15.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    BIVONA, WILLIAM A.

    THIS VOLUME PRESENTS THE RESULTS OF A NINE-MONTH TEST OF A PROTOTYPE SELECTIVE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION (SDI) SYSTEM DEVELOPED FOR THE ARMY TECHNICAL LIBRARIES. DURING THE PILOT TEST ONE THOUSAND DOCUMENTS WERE CATALOGED, INDEXED, AND DISSEMINATED TO TWENTY-FIVE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PERSONNEL. MATCHING OF THE INTEREST PROFILES OF THESE…

  2. Evaluation of an S.D.I. System Based on "Nuclear Science Abstracts" and the Performance of Matching by Words in Titles Compared With Indexing Terms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olive, G.; And Others

    A selective dissemination of information service based on computer scanning of Nuclear Science Abstracts tapes has operated at the Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell, England since October, 1968. The performance of the mechanized SDI service has been compared with that of the pre-existing current awareness service which is based on…

  3. Water savings through reduced evaporative loss from SDI compared with sprinkler irrigation: Degree of savings and effect on yield and WUE

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) wets the soil at the depth of the drip line and in a volume around each emitter, but the soil wetted often does not include the soil surface. Because of this, the soil surface remains completely or at least partially dry and evaporative losses of irrigation water are...

  4. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach.

    PubMed

    Roques, Lionel; Bonnefon, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid "2D/1D model", i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature. PMID:26986201

  5. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid “2D/1D model”, i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature. PMID:26986201

  6. Dynamical flows through dark matter haloes - II. One- and two-point statistics at the virial radius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubert, Dominique; Pichon, Christophe

    2007-01-01

    In a series of three papers, the dynamical interplay between environments and dark matter haloes is investigated, while focusing on the dynamical flows through the virtual virial sphere. It relies on both cosmological simulations, to constrain the environments, and an extension to the classical matrix method to derive the responses of the halo. A companion paper (Paper I) showed how perturbation theory allows us to propagate the statistical properties of the environment to an ensemble description of the dynamical response of the embedded halo. The current paper focuses on the statistical characterization of the environments surrounding haloes, using a set of large-scale simulations; the large statistic of environments presented here allows us to put quantitative and statistically significant constrains on the properties of flows accreted by haloes. The description chosen in this paper relies on a `fluid' halocentric representation. The interactions between the halo and its environment are investigated in terms of a time-dependent external tidal field and a source term characterizing the infall. The former accounts for fly bys and interlopers. The latter stands for the distribution function of the matter accreted through the virial sphere. The method of separation of variables is used to decouple the temporal evolution of these two quantities from their angular and velocity dependence by means of projection on a 5D basis. It is shown that how the flux densities of mass, momentum and energy can provide an alternative description to the 5D projection of the source. Such a description is well suited to regenerate synthetic time lines of accretion which are consistent with environments found in simulations as discussed in the Appendix. The method leading to the measurements of these quantities in simulations is presented in detail and applied to 15000 haloes, with masses between 5 × 1012 and 1014Msolar evolving between z = 1 and 0. The influence of resolution, class of

  7. Fragmentation statistics of large H{sub 2}O and NH{sub 3} clusters from molecular-dynamics simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Beu, T.A.

    2003-04-01

    The fragmentation statistics of (H{sub 2}O){sub N} and (NH{sub 3}){sub N} clusters (N=100-1000) is investigated by molecular-dynamics simulations. The fragment size distributions are found to be well described by power laws over a wide range of excitation energies. The maximum fragment size depends linearly on the cluster size. A compact analytical model, implying the maximum fragment size and the power-law exponent of the fragment size distribution, is shown to fit the average fragment size profiles quite well. It is demonstrated that the proposed relationship can be used to predict reliable fragment size distributions, starting from fits of the maximum and the average fragment sizes.

  8. Numerical Simulations of Jupiter’s Moist Convection Layer: Structure and Dynamics in Statistically Steady States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakajima, Kensuke; Sugiyama, Ko-ichiro; Odaka, Masatsugu; Kuramoto, Kiyoshi; Hayashi, Yoshi-Yuki

    2014-11-01

    A series of long-term numerical simulations of moist convection in Jupiter's atmosphere are performed to investigate idealized characteristics of vertical structures of multi-composition clouds and convective motions associated with them, varying the deep abundances of condensible gases and the time constant of the auto-conversion process that is one of the most questionable parameters in the cloud microphysical parameterization. The simulations are conducted using a two-dimensional cloud resolving model that explicitly represents convective motion and microphysics of the three cloud components, H2O, NH3, and NH4SH. The results generally represent the following characteristics qualitatively similar to those found in Sugiyama et al (2011); stable layers associated with condensation and chemical reaction well behave as dynamical and compositional boundaries, intense cumulonimbus clouds develop with distinct temporal intermittency, and the active transport associated with the cumulonimbus clouds results in an establishment of the mean vertical profiles of condensates and condensible gases that are distinctly different from the hitherto accepted three-layered structure. Our results also demonstrate that the period of the intermittent cloud activity is roughly proportional to the deep abundance of H2O gas. The moist convection layer becomes potentially unstable with respect to an air parcel rising from below the H2O lifting condensation level (LCL) well before the development of cumulonimbus clouds. The instability accumulates until an appropriate trigger is provided by the H2O condensate that falls down through the H2O LCL; the H2O condensate drives a downward flow below the H2O LCL by latent cooling associated with re-evaporation of the condensate, and the returning updrafts carry moist air from below to the moist convection layer. The active cloud development is terminated when the instability is completely exhausted. The period of the intermittency is roughly equal

  9. Molecular structure and elastic properties of thermotropic liquid crystals: integrated molecular dynamics--statistical mechanical theory vs molecular field approach.

    PubMed

    Ilk Capar, M; Nar, A; Ferrarini, A; Frezza, E; Greco, C; Zakharov, A V; Vakulenko, A A

    2013-03-21

    The connection between the molecular structure of liquid crystals and their elastic properties, which control the director deformations relevant for electro-optic applications, remains a challenging objective for theories and computations. Here, we compare two methods that have been proposed to this purpose, both characterized by a detailed molecular level description. One is an integrated molecular dynamics-statistical mechanical approach, where the bulk elastic constants of nematics are calculated from the direct correlation function (DCFs) and the single molecule orientational distribution function [D. A. McQuarrie, Statistical Mechanics (Harper & Row, New York, 1973)]. The latter is obtained from atomistic molecular dynamics trajectories, together with the radial distribution function, from which the DCF is then determined by solving the Ornstein-Zernike equation. The other approach is based on a molecular field theory, where the potential of mean torque experienced by a mesogen in the liquid crystal phase is parameterized according to its molecular surface. In this case, the calculation of elastic constants is combined with the Monte Carlo sampling of single molecule conformations. Using these different approaches, but the same description, at the level of molecular geometry and torsional potentials, we have investigated the elastic properties of the nematic phase of two typical mesogens, 4'-n-pentyloxy-4-cyanobiphenyl and 4'-n-heptyloxy-4-cyanobiphenyl. Both methods yield K3(bend) >K1 (splay) >K2 (twist), although there are some discrepancies in the average elastic constants and in their anisotropy. These are interpreted in terms of the different approximations and the different ways of accounting for the structural properties of molecules in the two approaches. In general, the results point to the role of the molecular shape, which is modulated by the conformational freedom and cannot be fully accounted for by a single descriptor such as the aspect ratio

  10. A Multivariate Statistical Approach based on a Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) Generator for Estimating the Frequency of Extreme Storm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, N. Z.; Gao, S.

    2015-12-01

    Challenges of fully considering the complexity among spatially and temporally varied rainfall always exist in flood frequency analysis. Conventional approaches that simplify the complexity of spatiotemporal interactions generally undermine their impacts on flood risks. A previously developed stochastic storm generator called Dynamic Moving Storms (DMS) aims to address the highly-dependent nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and movement of the storm. The authors utilize a multivariate statistical approach based on DMS to estimate the occurrence probability or frequency of extreme storm events. Fifteen years of radar rainfall data is used to generate a large number of synthetic storms as basis for statistical assessment. Two parametric retrieval algorithms are developed to recognize rain cells and track storm motions respectively. The resulted parameters are then used to establish probability density functions (PDFs), which are fitted to parametric distribution functions for further Monte Carlo simulations. Consequently, over 1,000,000 synthetic storms are generated based on twelve retrieved parameters for integrated risk assessment and ensemble forecasts. Furthermore, PDFs for parameters are used to calculate joint probabilities based on 2-dimensional Archimedean-Copula functions to determine the occurrence probabilities of extreme events. The approach is validated on the Upper Trinity River watershed and the generated results are compared with those from traditional rainfall frequency studies (i.e. Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, and Areal Reduction Factors).

  11. Structure of sheared and rotating turbulence: Multiscale statistics of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations and passive scalar dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobitz, Frank G.; Schneider, Kai; Bos, Wouter J. T.; Farge, Marie

    2016-01-01

    The acceleration statistics of sheared and rotating homogeneous turbulence are studied using direct numerical simulation results. The statistical properties of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are considered together with the influence of the rotation to shear ratio, as well as the scale dependence of their statistics. The probability density functions (pdfs) of both Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations show a strong and similar dependence on the rotation to shear ratio. The variance and flatness of both accelerations are analyzed and the extreme values of the Eulerian acceleration are observed to be above those of the Lagrangian acceleration. For strong rotation it is observed that flatness yields values close to three, corresponding to Gaussian-like behavior, and for moderate and vanishing rotation the flatness increases. Furthermore, the Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are shown to be strongly correlated for strong rotation due to a reduced nonlinear term in this case. A wavelet-based scale-dependent analysis shows that the flatness of both Eulerian and Lagrangian accelerations increases as scale decreases, which provides evidence for intermittent behavior. For strong rotation the Eulerian acceleration is even more intermittent than the Lagrangian acceleration, while the opposite result is obtained for moderate rotation. Moreover, the dynamics of a passive scalar with gradient production in the direction of the mean velocity gradient is analyzed and the influence of the rotation to shear ratio is studied. Concerning the concentration of a passive scalar spread by the flow, the pdf of its Eulerian time rate of change presents higher extreme values than those of its Lagrangian time rate of change. This suggests that the Eulerian time rate of change of scalar concentration is mainly due to advection, while its Lagrangian counterpart is only due to gradient production and viscous dissipation.

  12. Structure of sheared and rotating turbulence: Multiscale statistics of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations and passive scalar dynamics.

    PubMed

    Jacobitz, Frank G; Schneider, Kai; Bos, Wouter J T; Farge, Marie

    2016-01-01

    The acceleration statistics of sheared and rotating homogeneous turbulence are studied using direct numerical simulation results. The statistical properties of Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are considered together with the influence of the rotation to shear ratio, as well as the scale dependence of their statistics. The probability density functions (pdfs) of both Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations show a strong and similar dependence on the rotation to shear ratio. The variance and flatness of both accelerations are analyzed and the extreme values of the Eulerian acceleration are observed to be above those of the Lagrangian acceleration. For strong rotation it is observed that flatness yields values close to three, corresponding to Gaussian-like behavior, and for moderate and vanishing rotation the flatness increases. Furthermore, the Lagrangian and Eulerian accelerations are shown to be strongly correlated for strong rotation due to a reduced nonlinear term in this case. A wavelet-based scale-dependent analysis shows that the flatness of both Eulerian and Lagrangian accelerations increases as scale decreases, which provides evidence for intermittent behavior. For strong rotation the Eulerian acceleration is even more intermittent than the Lagrangian acceleration, while the opposite result is obtained for moderate rotation. Moreover, the dynamics of a passive scalar with gradient production in the direction of the mean velocity gradient is analyzed and the influence of the rotation to shear ratio is studied. Concerning the concentration of a passive scalar spread by the flow, the pdf of its Eulerian time rate of change presents higher extreme values than those of its Lagrangian time rate of change. This suggests that the Eulerian time rate of change of scalar concentration is mainly due to advection, while its Lagrangian counterpart is only due to gradient production and viscous dissipation. PMID:26871161

  13. Tensile behavior and dynamic mechanical analysis of novel poly(lactide/δ-valerolactone) statistical copolymers.

    PubMed

    Fernández, J; Larrañaga, A; Etxeberria, A; Sarasua, J R

    2014-07-01

    Lactide-co-δ-valerolactone copolymers (PLVL) have not attracted as much research interest as the more popular poly(lactide-co-ε-caprolactone) (PLCL) elastomeric materials. In this work the study of the mechanical performance is focused on the former with the aim of identifying the potential advantages of these thermoplastic elastomers for their application in the biomedical field. Mechanical testing (at 21°C and at 37°C) of at least 5 specimens and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) in duplicate were carried out on various PLVL, which include a moderately blocky l-lactide/δ-valerolactone copolymer (~70% of l-LA and R=0.68) and several that showed a random distribution of sequences (R~1): some terpolymers based on l-lactide, d-lactide and δ-valerolactone (with a lactone content of ~25 and ~14%) and a series of copolymers of l-LA and δ-VL having l-LA molar contents ranging from 69 to 74%. In view of the results, it can be concluded that noteworthy improvements in stiffness and strength were achieved by adding δ-VL to the reaction mix instead of ε-CL, although both monomers have analogous chemical properties. For example, a PLVL with a 75:25M composition of l-LA/δ-VL at 21°C presented a secant modulus of 213.7±36.5MPa and σu=14.7±1.4MPa whereas a previously studied PLCL of equal composition had a secant modulus and an ultimate stress value of 19.4±1.3MPa and 3.2±0.6MPa, respectively. At 37°C, the differences in the mechanical properties between the different PLVLs of this work were far less relevant, with most of them showing a fully elastomeric behavior. Referring to the DMA measurements, the reduction in the peak of tan δ (from ~2.5 to 0.5) through the glass transition was a clear indicator that crystalline domains formed during hydrolytic degradation in some of the polymers. However, the more amorphous PLVLs with short l-LA average sequence lengths (ll-LA<2.91) did not undergo changes in the storage modulus and tan δ curves after two weeks

  14. Auditory-induced neural dynamics in sensory-motor circuitry predict learned temporal and sequential statistics of birdsong

    PubMed Central

    Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Brainard, Michael S.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting future events is a critical computation for both perception and behavior. Despite the essential nature of this computation, there are few studies demonstrating neural activity that predicts specific events in learned, probabilistic sequences. Here, we test the hypotheses that the dynamics of internally generated neural activity are predictive of future events and are structured by the learned temporal–sequential statistics of those events. We recorded neural activity in Bengalese finch sensory-motor area HVC in response to playback of sequences from individuals’ songs, and examined the neural activity that continued after stimulus offset. We found that the strength of response to a syllable in the sequence depended on the delay at which that syllable was played, with a maximal response when the delay matched the intersyllable gap normally present for that specific syllable during song production. Furthermore, poststimulus neural activity induced by sequence playback resembled the neural response to the next syllable in the sequence when that syllable was predictable, but not when the next syllable was uncertain. Our results demonstrate that the dynamics of internally generated HVC neural activity are predictive of the learned temporal–sequential structure of produced song and that the strength of this prediction is modulated by uncertainty. PMID:27506786

  15. Numerical simulations of Jupiter’s moist convection layer: Structure and dynamics in statistically steady states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiyama, K.; Nakajima, K.; Odaka, M.; Kuramoto, K.; Hayashi, Y.-Y.

    2014-02-01

    A series of long-term numerical simulations of moist convection in Jupiter’s atmosphere is performed in order to investigate the idealized characteristics of the vertical structure of multi-composition clouds and the convective motions associated with them, varying the deep abundances of condensable gases and the autoconversion time scale, the latter being one of the most questionable parameters in cloud microphysical parameterization. The simulations are conducted using a two-dimensional cloud resolving model that explicitly represents the convective motion and microphysics of the three cloud components, H2O, NH3, and NH4SH imposing a body cooling that substitutes the net radiative cooling. The results are qualitatively similar to those reported in Sugiyama et al. (Sugiyama, K. et al. [2011]. Intermittent cumulonimbus activity breaking the three-layer cloud structure of Jupiter. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13201. doi:10.1029/2011GL047878): stable layers associated with condensation and chemical reaction act as effective dynamical and compositional boundaries, intense cumulonimbus clouds develop with distinct temporal intermittency, and the active transport associated with these clouds results in the establishment of mean vertical profiles of condensates and condensable gases that are distinctly different from the hitherto accepted three-layered structure (e.g., Atreya, S.K., Romani, P.N. [1985]. Photochemistry and clouds of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. In: Recent Advances in Planetary Meteorology. Cambridge Univ. Press, London, pp. 17-68). Our results also demonstrate that the period of intermittent cloud activity is roughly proportional to the deep abundance of H2O gas. The autoconversion time scale does not strongly affect the results, except for the vertical profiles of the condensates. Changing the autoconversion time scale by a factor of 100 changes the intermittency period by a factor of less than two, although it causes a dramatic increase in the amount of

  16. Statistics Revelations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chicot, Katie; Holmes, Hilary

    2012-01-01

    The use, and misuse, of statistics is commonplace, yet in the printed format data representations can be either over simplified, supposedly for impact, or so complex as to lead to boredom, supposedly for completeness and accuracy. In this article the link to the video clip shows how dynamic visual representations can enliven and enhance the…

  17. Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: Evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Moemken, Julia

    2015-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalisation of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily MSLP fields with the central point being located over Germany. 77 weather classes based on the associated circulation weather type and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamical downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different datasets the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10m-wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts results of SDD are similar to DD simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout timeseries of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in SRES scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over Northern Europe and a negative trend over Southern Europe. Despite some biases it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

  18. Intercomparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling models under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative framework: present climate evaluations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaittinada Ayar, Pradeebane; Vrac, Mathieu; Bastin, Sophie; Carreau, Julie; Déqué, Michel; Gallardo, Clemente

    2016-02-01

    Given the coarse spatial resolution of General Circulation Models, finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation are often needed to drive impacts models, for example in hydrology or ecology among other fields. This need for high-resolution data leads to apply projection techniques called downscaling. Downscaling can be performed according to two approaches: dynamical and statistical models. The latter approach is constituted by various statistical families conceptually different. If several studies have made some intercomparisons of existing downscaling models, none of them included all those families and approaches in a manner that all the models are equally considered. To this end, the present study conducts an intercomparison exercise under the EURO- and MED-CORDEX initiative hindcast framework. Six Statistical Downscaling Models (SDMs) and five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are compared in terms of precipitation outputs. The downscaled simulations are driven by the ERAinterim reanalyses over the 1989-2008 period over a common area at 0.44° of resolution. The 11 models are evaluated according to four aspects of the precipitation: occurrence, intensity, as well as spatial and temporal properties. For each aspect, one or several indicators are computed to discriminate the models. The results indicate that marginal properties of rain occurrence and intensity are better modelled by stochastic and resampling-based SDMs, while spatial and temporal variability are better modelled by RCMs and resampling-based SDM. These general conclusions have to be considered with caution because they rely on the chosen indicators and could change when considering other specific criteria. The indicators suit specific purpose and therefore the model evaluation results depend on the end-users point of view and how they intend to use with model outputs. Nevertheless, building on previous intercomparison exercises, this study provides a

  19. Temporal and spatial dynamics of large lake hypoxia: Integrating statistical and three-dimensional dynamic models to enhance lake management criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bocaniov, Serghei A.; Scavia, Donald

    2016-06-01

    Hypoxia or low bottom water dissolved oxygen (DO) is a world-wide problem of management concern requiring an understanding and ability to monitor and predict its spatial and temporal dynamics. However, this is often made difficult in large lakes and coastal oceans because of limited spatial and temporal coverage of field observations. We used a calibrated and validated three-dimensional ecological model of Lake Erie to extend a statistical relationship between hypoxic extent and bottom water DO concentrations to explore implications of the broader temporal and spatial development and dissipation of hypoxia. We provide the first numerical demonstration that hypoxia initiates in the nearshore, not the deep portion of the basin, and that the threshold used to define hypoxia matters in both spatial and temporal dynamics and in its sensitivity to climate. We show that existing monitoring programs likely underestimate both maximum hypoxic extent and the importance of low oxygen in the nearshore, discuss implications for ecosystem and drinking water protection, and recommend how these results could be used to efficiently and economically extend monitoring programs.

  20. Statistical Investigations on Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Pulses:Basic features and Their Impacts on Geosynchronous Magnetic Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuo, Pingbing; Feng, Xueshang

    2016-07-01

    Solar wind dynamic pressure pulse (DPP) structures, across which the dynamic pressure abruptly changes over timescales from a few seconds to several minutes, are often observed in the near-Earth space environment. Recently we have developed a novel procedure that is able to rapidly identify the DPPs from the plasma data stream, and simultaneously define the transition region and smartly select the upstream and downstream region for analysis. The plasma data with high time-resolution from 3DP instrument on board the WIND spacecraft are inspected with this automatic DPP-searching code, and a complete list of solar wind DPPs of historic WIND observations are built up. We perform a statistical survey on the properties of DPPs near 1 AU based on this event list. It is found that overwhelming majority of DPPs are associated with the solar wind disturbances including the CME-related flows, the corotating interaction regions, as well as the complex ejecta. The annual variations of the averaged occurrence rate of DPPs are roughly in phase with the solar activities. Although the variabilities of geosynchronous magnetic fields (GMFs) due to the impact of positive DPPs have been well established, there appears no systematic investigations on the response of GMFs to negative DPPs. Here we also study the decompression/compression effects of very strong negative/positive DPPs on GMFs under northward IMFs. In response to the decompression of strong negative DPPs, GMFs on dayside, near the dawn and dusk on nightside are generally depressed. But near the midnight region, the responses of GMF are very diverse, being either positive or negative. For part of events when GOES is located at the midnight sector, GMF is found to abnormally increase as the result of magnetospheric decompression caused by negative DPPs. It is known that on certain conditions magnetic depression of nightside GMFs can be caused by the impact of positive DPPs. Statistically, both the decompression effect of

  1. The old nuclear star cluster in the Milky Way: dynamics, mass, statistical parallax, and black hole mass

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatzopoulos, S.; Fritz, T. K.; Gerhard, O.; Gillessen, S.; Wegg, C.; Genzel, R.; Pfuhl, O.

    2015-02-01

    We derive new constraints on the mass, rotation, orbit structure, and statistical parallax of the Galactic old nuclear star cluster and the mass of the supermassive black hole. We combine star counts and kinematic data from Fritz et al., including 2500 line-of-sight velocities and 10 000 proper motions obtained with VLT instruments. We show that the difference between the proper motion dispersions σl and σb cannot be explained by rotation, but is a consequence of the flattening of the nuclear cluster. We fit the surface density distribution of stars in the central 1000 arcsec by a superposition of a spheroidal cluster with scale ˜100 arcsec and a much larger nuclear disc component. We compute the self-consistent two-integral distribution function f(E, Lz) for this density model, and add rotation self-consistently. We find that (i) the orbit structure of the f(E, Lz) gives an excellent match to the observed velocity dispersion profiles as well as the proper motion and line-of-sight velocity histograms, including the double-peak in the vl-histograms. (ii) This requires an axial ratio near q1 = 0.7 consistent with our determination from star counts, q1 = 0.73 ± 0.04 for r < 70 arcsec. (iii) The nuclear star cluster is approximately described by an isotropic rotator model. (iv) Using the corresponding Jeans equations to fit the proper motion and line-of-sight velocity dispersions, we obtain best estimates for the nuclear star cluster mass, black hole mass, and distance M*(r < 100 arcsec) = (8.94 ± 0.31|stat ± 0.9|syst) × 106 M⊙, M• = (3.86 ± 0.14|stat ± 0.4|syst) × 106 M⊙, and R0 = 8.27 ± 0.09|stat ± 0.1|syst kpc, where the estimated systematic errors account for additional uncertainties in the dynamical modelling. (v) The combination of the cluster dynamics with the S-star orbits around Sgr A* strongly reduces the degeneracy between black hole mass and Galactic Centre distance present in previous S-star studies. A joint statistical analysis with the

  2. Comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling of extreme precipitations over France in present-day and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colin, Jeanne; Déqué, Michel; Sanchez Gomez, Emila; Somot, Samuel

    2010-05-01

    We present a comparison of two downscaling methods of extreme precipitations over France at a climatic time scale : a dynamical one performed with the Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate used at a resolution of 12 km, and a statistical one based on the weather regime approach and using the analog methodology to reconstruct daily fields of precipitations at a 8 km resolution. We focus on the most heavy precipitations of the area of interest, which occur in southeastern France in Autumn. Those involve small-scale processes than can be explicitly resolved only with 2-1 km resolution non-hydrostatic models. However, such models can not be used for climate simulations because of their computational cost is still too high. Yet these extreme events cause rather heavy damages, so that their possible evolution in the context of climate change is of great concern. Thus, there is strong need in assessing downscaling methods' ability to represent them. First, we downscale the low-resolution ERA40 re-analysis over the 1958-2000 time period with ALADIN-Climate, and from the year 1980 to the year 2000 with the statistical method. Then, we apply a quantile-quantile correction to the daily precipitations of the last twenty years of the ALADIN-Climate simulation. The correction rates are computed over the first part of the simulation (1958-1979) using a high-resolution gridded database : the SAFRAN analysis, which provides series of hourly fields for the 1958-2008 period over the french territory at a 8 km resolution. We assess the performances of each downscaling method in present-day climate by comparing the simulated precipitations to the SAFRAN database. The use of the ERA40 re-analysis allows to reproduce the real chronology in both downscalings, which enables to analyze the results not only from a statistical point of view but also through day-to-day diagnosis such as time correlations or spatial patterns of rain for given extreme events. Secondly, we apply these downscaling

  3. Testing modified Newtonian dynamics through statistics of velocity dispersion profiles in the inner regions of elliptical galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chae, Kyu-Hyun; Gong, In-Taek

    2015-08-01

    Modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) proposed by Milgrom provides a paradigm alternative to dark matter (DM) that has been successful in fitting and predicting the rich phenomenology of rotating disc galaxies. There have also been attempts to test MOND in dispersion-supported spheroidal early-type galaxies, but it remains unclear whether MOND can fit the various empirical properties of early-type galaxies for the whole ranges of mass and radius. As a way of rigorously testing MOND in elliptical galaxies we calculate the MOND-predicted velocity dispersion profiles (VDPs) in the inner regions of ˜2000 nearly round Sloan Digital Sky Survey elliptical galaxies under a variety of assumptions on velocity dispersion (VD) anisotropy, and then compare the predicted distribution of VDP slopes with the observed distribution in 11 ATLAS3D galaxies selected with essentially the same criteria. We find that the MOND model parametrized with an interpolating function that works well for rotating galaxies can also reproduce the observed distribution of VDP slopes based only on the observed stellar mass distribution without DM or any other galaxy-to-galaxy varying factor. This is remarkable in view that Newtonian dynamics with DM requires a specific amount and/or profile of DM for each galaxy in order to reproduce the observed distribution of VDP slopes. When we analyse non-round galaxy samples using the MOND-based spherical Jeans equation, we do not find any systematic difference in the mean property of the VDP slope distribution compared with the nearly round sample. However, in line with previous studies of MOND through individual analyses of elliptical galaxies, varying MOND interpolating function or VD anisotropy can lead to systematic change in the VDP slope distribution, indicating that a statistical analysis of VDPs can be used to constrain specific MOND models with an accurate measurement of VDP slopes or a prior constraint on VD anisotropy.

  4. The Farey series devil's staircase: Connection to dynamical-systems, statistical physics, music theory and music perception?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krantz, Richard; Douthett, Jack; Cartwright, Julyan; Gonzalez, Diego; Piro, Oreste

    2010-10-01

    Some time ago two apparently dissimilar presentations were given at the 2007 Helmholtz Workshop in Berlin. One by J. Douthett and R. Krantz focused on the commonality between the mathematical descriptions of musical scales and the long-ranged, one-dimensional, anti-ferromagnetic Ising model of statistical physics. The other by J. Cartwright, D. Gonzalez, and O. Piro articulated a nonlinear dynamical model of pitch perception. Both approaches lead to a Farey series devil's staircase structure. In the first case, the ground state magnetic phase diagram of the Ising model is a Farey series devil's staircase. In the second case, the ear is modeled as a nonlinear system leading to a three-frequency resonant pitch perception model of the auditory system that exhibits a devil's staircase phase-locked structure. In this poster we present a summary of each of these works side-by-side to illuminate the link between these two seemingly disparate systems. Adapted from JMM Vol. 4, No. 1, 57, Mar. 2010.

  5. Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year

    PubMed Central

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Mitchell, Lewis; Reagan, Andrew J.; Danforth, Christopher M.

    2016-01-01

    Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms—the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853–2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models. PMID:27167740

  6. Tracking Climate Change through the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the Teletherms, the Statistically Hottest and Coldest Days of the Year.

    PubMed

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Mitchell, Lewis; Reagan, Andrew J; Danforth, Christopher M

    2016-01-01

    Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms-the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853-2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models. PMID:27167740

  7. Doubled CO2 experiments with the Global Change Research Center two-dimensional statistical dynamical climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, R. M.; Khalil, M. A. K.

    1995-10-01

    The zonally averaged response of the Global Change Research Center two-dimensional (2-D) statistical dynamical climate model (GCRC 2-D SDCM) to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (350 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to 700 ppmv) is reported. The model solves the two-dimensional primitive equations in finite difference form (mass continuity, Newton's second law, and the first law of thermodynamics) for the prognostic variables: zonal mean density, zonal mean zonal velocity, zonal mean meridional velocity, and zonal mean temperature on a grid that has 18 nodes in latitude and 9 vertical nodes (plus the surface). The equation of state, p=ρRT, and an assumed hydrostatic atmosphere, Delta;p=-ρgΔz, are used to diagnostically calculate the zonal mean pressure and vertical velocity for each grid node, and the moisture balance equation is used to estimate the precipitation rate. The model includes seasonal variations in solar intensity, including the effects of eccentricity, and has observed land and ocean fractions set for each zone. Seasonally varying values of cloud amounts, relative humidity profiles, ozone, and sea ice are all prescribed in the model. Equator to pole ocean heat transport is simulated in the model by turbulent diffusion. The change in global mean annual surface air temperature due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in the 2-D model is 1.61 K, which is close to that simulated by the one-dimensional (1-D) radiative convective model (RCM) which is at the heart of the 2-D model radiation code (1.67 K for the moist adiabatic lapse rate assumption in 1-D RCM). We find that the change in temperature structure of the model atmosphere has many of the characteristics common to General Circulation Models, including amplified warming at the poles and the upper tropical troposphere, and stratospheric cooling. Because of the potential importance of atmospheric circulation feedbacks on climate change, we have also investigated the response of the zonal wind

  8. Multi-dimensional LADAR tracking and adaptive grasping for spaceborne assembly of SDI (Strategic Defense Initiative) platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frey, Randy W.; Bohlin, John A.

    1990-02-01

    The most successful approaches to both machine target recognition and robot arm manipulation have been those where tasks are completely pre-specified. In such systems there is little room for deviations in robot path motion or target location and orientation. A novel approach to robotic implementation such as spaceborne assembly of SDI platforms are too difficult for existing robots because random occurrences and large numbers of external variables preclude the complete specification of tasks off-line. The proposed system has strong adaptability due to the following innovations: Registered video and range laser radar sensing (i.e., a one-to-one correspondence between visual and range data). This allows fast, accurate 3D target recognition as part of an autonomous CAD model based recognition system for Phase 2, or as input to teleoperator control in Phase 1. Closed loop range and video feedback for grasper guidance using the pose matching concept where target and grasper are both in the field of view, and CAD derived track points are used for position and orientation error signals.

  9. Protection against deleterious nitrogen compounds: role of σS-dependent small RNAs encoded adjacent to sdiA.

    PubMed

    Hao, Yue; Updegrove, Taylor B; Livingston, Natasha N; Storz, Gisela

    2016-08-19

    Here, we report the characterization of a set of small, regulatory RNAs (sRNAs) expressed from an Escherichia coli locus we have denoted sdsN located adjacent to the LuxR-homolog gene sdiA Two longer sRNAs, SdsN137 and SdsN178 are transcribed from two σ(S)-dependent promoters but share the same terminator. Low temperature, rich nitrogen sources and the Crl and NarP transcription factors differentially affect the levels of the SdsN transcripts. Whole genome expression analysis after pulse overexpression of SdsN137 and assays of lacZ fusions revealed that the SdsN137 directly represses the synthesis of the nitroreductase NfsA, which catalyzes the reduction of the nitrogroup (NO2) in nitroaromatic compounds and the flavohemoglobin HmpA, which has aerobic nitric oxide (NO) dioxygenase activity. Consistent with this regulation, SdsN137 confers resistance to nitrofurans. In addition, SdsN137 negatively regulates synthesis of NarP. Interestingly, SdsN178 is defective at regulating the above targets due to unusual binding to the Hfq protein, but cleavage leads to a shorter form, SdsN124, able to repress nfsA and hmpA. PMID:27166377

  10. Self-organization in irregular landscapes: Detecting autogenic interactions from field data using descriptive statistics and dynamical systems theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larsen, L.; Watts, D.; Khurana, A.; Anderson, J. L.; Xu, C.; Merritts, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The classic signal of self-organization in nature is pattern formation. However, the interactions and feedbacks that organize depositional landscapes do not always result in regular or fractal patterns. How might we detect their existence and effects in these "irregular" landscapes? Emergent landscapes such as newly forming deltaic marshes or some restoration sites provide opportunities to study the autogenic processes that organize landscapes and their physical signatures. Here we describe a quest to understand autogenic vs. allogenic controls on landscape evolution in Big Spring Run, PA, a landscape undergoing restoration from bare-soil conditions to a target wet meadow landscape. The contemporary motivation for asking questions about autogenic vs. allogenic controls is to evaluate how important initial conditions or environmental controls may be for the attainment of management objectives. However, these questions can also inform interpretation of the sedimentary record by enabling researchers to separate signals that may have arisen through self-organization processes from those resulting from environmental perturbations. Over three years at Big Spring Run, we mapped the dynamic evolution of floodplain vegetation communities and distributions of abiotic variables and topography. We used principal component analysis and transition probability analysis to detect associative interactions between vegetation and geomorphic variables and convergent cross-mapping on lidar data to detect causal interactions between biomass and topography. Exploratory statistics revealed that plant communities with distinct morphologies exerted control on landscape evolution through stress divergence (i.e., channel initiation) and promoting the accumulation of fine sediment in channels. Together, these communities participated in a negative feedback that maintains low energy and multiple channels. Because of the spatially explicit nature of this feedback, causal interactions could not

  11. Columnar Aerosol Properties from Sun-and-star Photometry: Statistical Comparisons and Day-to-night Dynamic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ramirez, Daniel Perez; Lyamani, H.; Olmo, F. J.; Whiteman, D. N.; Alados-Arboledas, L.

    2012-01-01

    This work presents the first analysis of longterm correlative day-to-night columnar aerosol optical properties. The aim is to better understand columnar aerosol dynamic from ground-based observations, which are poorly studied until now. To this end we have used a combination of sun-and-star photometry measurements acquired in the city of Granada (37.16 N, 3.60 W, 680 ma.s.l.; South-East of Spain) from 2007 to 2010. For the whole study period, mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) around 440 nm (+/-standard deviation) is 0.18 +/- 0.10 and 0.19 +/- 0.11 for daytime and nighttime, respectively, while the mean Angstr¨om exponent (alpha ) is 1.0 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.4 for daytime and nighttime. The ANOVA statistical tests reveal that there are no significant differences between AOD and obtained at daytime and those at nighttime. Additionally, the mean daytime values of AOD and obtained during this study period are coherent with the values obtained in the surrounding AERONET stations. On the other hand, AOD around 440 nm present evident seasonal patterns characterised by large values in summer (mean value of 0.20 +/- 0.10 both at daytime and nighttime) and low values in winter (mean value of 0.15 +/- 0.09 at daytime and 0.17 +/- 0.10 at nighttime). The Angstr¨om exponents also present seasonal patterns, but with low values in summer (mean values of 0.8 +/- 0.4 and 0.9 +/- 0.4 at dayand night-time) and relatively large values in winter (mean values of 1.2 +/- 0.4 and 1.0 +/- 0.3 at daytime and nighttime). These seasonal patterns are explained by the differences in the meteorological conditions and by the differences in the strength of the aerosol sources. To take more insight about the changes in aerosol particles between day and night, the spectral differences of the Angstrom exponent as function of the Angstr¨om exponent are also studied. These analyses reveal increases of the fine mode radius and of the fine mode contribution to AOD during nighttime, being more

  12. Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

    2012-12-01

    Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall

  13. Study of the fission process of 200Pb and 197Tl produced in fusion reactions with the modified statistical model and multidimensional dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eslamizadeh, H.

    2015-09-01

    The fission probability, pre-scission neutron, proton and alpha multiplicities, anisotropy of fission fragment angular distribution and the fission time have been calculated for the compound nuclei 200Pb and 197Tl based on the modified statistical model and four-dimensional dynamical model. In dynamical calculations, dissipation was generated through the chaos weighted wall and window friction formula. The projection of the total spin of the compound nucleus to the symmetry axis, K, was considered as the fourth-dimension in Langevin dynamical calculations. In our dynamical calculations, we have used a constant dissipation coefficient of K, {γ }K=0.077{({{MeV}} {{zs}})}-{1/2}, and a non-constant dissipation coefficient to reproduce the above-mentioned experimental data. Comparison of the theoretical results of the fission probability and pre-scission particle multiplicities with the experimental data showed that the difference between the results of both dynamical models is small whereas, for the anisotropy of fission fragment angular distribution, it is slightly large. Furthermore, comparison of the results of the modified statistical model with the above-mentioned experimental data showed that with choosing appropriate values of the temperature coefficient of the effective potential, λ , and the scaling factor of the fission-barrier height, {r}s, the experimental data were satisfactorily reproduced.

  14. Developing a Web-based system by integrating VGI and SDI for real estate management and marketing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salajegheh, J.; Hakimpour, F.; Esmaeily, A.

    2014-10-01

    Property importance of various aspects, especially the impact on various sectors of the economy and the country's macroeconomic is clear. Because of the real, multi-dimensional and heterogeneous nature of housing as a commodity, the lack of an integrated system includes comprehensive information of property, the lack of awareness of some actors in this field about comprehensive information about property and the lack of clear and comprehensive rules and regulations for the trading and pricing, several problems arise for the people involved in this field. In this research implementation of a crowd-sourced Web-based real estate support system is desired. Creating a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) in this system for collecting, updating and integrating all official data about property is also desired in this study. In this system a Web2.0 broker and technologies such as Web services and service composition has been used. This work aims to provide comprehensive and diverse information about property from different sources. For this purpose five-level real estate support system architecture is used. PostgreSql DBMS is used to implement the desired system. Geoserver software is also used as map server and reference implementation of OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) standards. And Apache server is used to run web pages and user interfaces. Integration introduced methods and technologies provide a proper environment for various users to use the system and share their information. This goal is only achieved by cooperation between all involved organizations in real estate with implementation their required infrastructures in interoperability Web services format.

  15. p21{sup WAF1/Cip1/Sdi1} knockout mice respond to doxorubicin with reduced cardiotoxicity

    SciTech Connect

    Terrand, Jerome; Xu, Beibei; Morrissy, Steve; Dinh, Thai Nho; Williams, Stuart; Chen, Qin M.

    2011-11-15

    Doxorubicin (Dox) is an antineoplastic agent that can cause cardiomyopathy in humans and experimental animals. As an inducer of reactive oxygen species and a DNA damaging agent, Dox causes elevated expression of p21{sup WAF1/Cip1/Sdi1} (p21) gene. Elevated levels of p21 mRNA and p21 protein have been detected in the myocardium of mice following Dox treatment. With chronic treatment of Dox, wild type (WT) animals develop cardiomyopathy evidenced by elongated nuclei, mitochondrial swelling, myofilamental disarray, reduced cardiac output, reduced ejection fraction, reduced left ventricular contractility, and elevated expression of ANF gene. In contrast, p21 knockout (p21KO) mice did not show significant changes in the same parameters in response to Dox treatment. In an effort to understand the mechanism of the resistance against Dox induced cardiomyopathy, we measured levels of antioxidant enzymes and found that p21KO mice did not contain elevated basal or inducible levels of glutathione peroxidase and catalase. Measurements of 6 circulating cytokines indicated elevation of IL-6, IL-12, IFN{gamma} and TNF{alpha} in Dox treated WT mice but not p21KO mice. Dox induced elevation of IL-6 mRNA was detected in the myocardium of WT mice but not p21KO mice. While the mechanism of the resistance against Dox induced cardiomyopathy remains unclear, lack of inflammatory response may contribute to the observed cardiac protection in p21KO mice. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Doxorubicin induces p21 elevation in the myocardium. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Doxorubicin causes dilated cardiomyopathy in wild type mice. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer p21 Knockout mice are resistant against doxorubicin induced cardiomyopathy. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Lack of inflammatory response correlates with the resistance in p21 knockout mice.

  16. Modified Statistical Dynamical Diffraction Theory: A Novel Metrological Analysis Method for Partially Relaxed and Defective Carbon-doped Silicon and Silicon Germanium Heterostructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shreeman, Paul K.

    The statistical dynamical diffraction theory, which has been initially developed by late Kato remained in obscurity for many years due to intense and difficult mathematical treatment that proved to be quite challenging to implement and apply. With assistance of many authors in past (including Bushuev, Pavlov, Pungeov, and among the others), it became possible to implement this unique x-ray diffraction theory that combines the kinematical (ideally imperfect) and dynamical (the characteristically perfect diffraction) into a single system of equations controlled by two factors determined by long range order and correlation function within the structure. The first stage is completed by the publication (Shreeman and Matyi, J. Appl. Cryst., 43, 550 (2010)) demonstrating the functionality of this theory with new modifications hence called modified statistical dynamical diffraction theory (mSDDT). The foundation of the theory is also incorporated into this dissertation, and the next stage of testing the model against several ion-implanted SiGe materials has been published: (Shreeman and Matyi, physica status solidi (a)208(11), 2533-2538, 2011). The dissertation with all the previous results summarized, dives into comprehensive analysis of HRXRD analyses complete with several different types of reflections (symmetrical, asymmetrical and skewed geometry). The dynamical results (with almost no defects) are compared with well-known commercial software. The defective materials, to which commercially available modeling software falls short, is then characterized and discussed in depth. The results will exemplify the power of the novel approach in the modified statistical dynamical diffraction theory: Ability to detect and measure defective structures qualitatively and quantitatively. The analysis will be compared alongside with TEM data analysis for verification and confirmation. The application of this theory will accelerate the ability to quickly characterize the relaxed

  17. Evaluation of the impact of quorum sensing transcriptional regulator SdiA on long-term persistence and fecal shedding of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in weaned calves.

    PubMed

    Sharma, V K; Bearson, S M D

    2013-04-01

    Escherichia coli O157:H7 (O157) colonization of bovine intestine is mediated through the locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE)-encoded type III secretion system and secreted virulence proteins that promote colonization of the recto-anal junction (RAJ) of the large intestine of cattle. The quorum sensing transcriptional regulator SdiA, a homolog of LuxR, has been shown in vitro to repress LEE strongly when overexpressed from a multi-copy recombinant plasmid or when its activity is enhanced by the binding of N-acyl-L-homoserine lactones (AHLs), the quorum sensing signals that are detected by SdiA. Since LEE has been shown to be essential for colonization and persistence of O157 in bovine intestine, we examined whether a mutation in sdiA, which normally represses LEE in vitro, would also exert negative effect on colonization and long-term persistence of O157 in weaned calves. Ten-week old weaned calves (n = 4/group) were inoculated orally with 10(10) cfu of either the wild-type or sdiA mutant strain. Initial fecal shedding of the sdiA mutant and the wild-type strain were similar in magnitude and declined during the first 2 weeks post-inoculation. The sdiA mutant was detected in feces of only one of the four calves at low levels (≥10(2) cfu/g feces) from days 19 - 27 post-inoculation, whereas, the fecal shedding of the wild-type strain persisted at approximately 4-logs in all four calves from days 19 - 27. We also confirmed that SdiA represses ler, which encodes a positive transcriptional regulator of LEE, in response to AHLs, and reduces adherence of O157 to HEp-2 cells. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that although in vitro the sdiA gene represses LEE and LEE-mediated adherence to cultured cells, the presence of sdiA is necessary for colonization of bovine large intestine that in turn promotes persistent fecal shedding of O157 by these animals. PMID:23415735

  18. Collaborative Research. Damage and Burst Dynamics in Failure of Complex Geomaterials. A Statistical Physics Approach to Understanding the Complex Emergent Dynamics in Near Mean-Field Geological Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Rundle, John B.; Klein, William

    2015-09-29

    We have carried out research to determine the dynamics of failure in complex geomaterials, specifically focusing on the role of defects, damage and asperities in the catastrophic failure processes (now popularly termed “Black Swan events”). We have examined fracture branching and flow processes using models for invasion percolation, focusing particularly on the dynamics of bursts in the branching process. We have achieved a fundamental understanding of the dynamics of nucleation in complex geomaterials, specifically in the presence of inhomogeneous structures.

  19. Simple example of an SADMT SDI-(Strategic Defense Initiative) Architecture Dataflow Modeling Technique) architecture specification. Version 1. 5. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Linn, C.J.; Linn, J.L.; Edwards, S.H.; Kappel, M.R.; Ardoin, C.D.

    1988-04-21

    This report presents a simple architecture specification in the SDI Architecture Dataflow Modeling Technique (SADMT). The example code is given in the SADMT Generator (SAGEN) Language. This simple architecture includes (1) an informal description of the architecture, (2) the main program that creates the components of the simulation, (3) the specification of the BM/C3 logical processes of the architecture, (4) the specification of the Technology Modules (TMs) of the architecture, and (5) the specification of the Battle Management/Command, Control and Communications (BM/C3) and TMs of the threat.

  20. Statistical analysis of polychaete population density: dynamics of dominant species and scaling properties in relative abundance fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quiroz-Martinez, B.; Schmitt, F. G.; Dauvin, J.-C.

    2012-01-01

    We consider here the dynamics of two polychaete populations based on a 20 yr temporal benthic survey of two muddy fine sand communities in the Bay of Morlaix, Western English Channel. These populations display high temporal variability, which is analyzed here using scaling approaches. We find that population densities have heavy tailed probability density functions. We analyze the dynamics of relative species abundance in two different communities of polychaetes by estimating in a novel way a "mean square drift" coefficient which characterizes their fluctuations in relative abundance over time. We show the usefulness of using new tools to approach and model such highly variable population dynamics in marine ecosystems.

  1. A unified N-body and statistical treatment of stellar dynamics. I - The hybrid code. II - Applications to globular cluster cores

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmillan, S. L. W.; Lightman, A. P.

    1984-01-01

    A unified N-body and statistical treatment of stellar dynamics is developed and applied to the late stages of core collapse and early stages of post collapse evolution in globular clusters. A 'hybrid' computer code is joined to a direct N-body code which is used to calculate exactly the behavior of particles in the inner spatial region, and the combination is used to follow particles statistically in the outer spatial region. A transition zone allows the exchange of particles and energy between the two regions. The main application results include: formation of a hard central binary system, reversal of core collapse and expansion due to the heat input from this binary, ejection of the binary from the core, and recollapse of the core; density profiles that form a one-parameter sequence during the core oscillations; and indications that these oscillations will eventually cease.

  2. What can hydrological time series variations tell about karst dynamics? A coupled statistical/conceptual modeling analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massei, N.; Duran, L. P.; Fournier, M.; Jardani, A.; Lecoq, N.

    2015-12-01

    In this research we study the capability of time series analysis approaches to extract meaningful components of karst spring hydrographs. In this aim we compare these statistical components to the internal components of a conceptual precipitation/discharge model based on the physical knowledge of the site studied. We used the conceptual modeling software KARSTMOD developed by the INSU/CNRS National Karst Observatory to model discharge at a small karst spring in Normandy (France). The model comprised four reservoirs E, L, M and C (interpreted as epikarst, high- inertia/highly capacitive matrix, fissure network and conduits), consistent with previous works showing the existence of a triple porosity in chalk of Normandy. KARSTMOD internal flow components were analyzed with correlation and Fourier spectral analysis, and compared to statistical components extracted from spring discharge by wavelet multiresolution analysis and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). We could also analyze how the hydrological signal acquired its red noise statistical characteristics while water flow propagates into the conceptual model. The trend of the discharge signal, given by the residue of EEMD, appeared quite similar to the variation in reservoir L and well correlated to the variation of the water level within the aquifer. Exchanges between fissured matrix and conduits (reservoirs M and C) could be also investigated: a high frequency pressure pulse-controlled flow from C to M (intermittent recharge from the conduits) was identified, as well as fissured matrix flow likely to take place in the surroundings of the conduit network. Flow from reservoir M to reservoir C could be recovered by recombining wavelet components of spring discharge. This study demonstrated that statistical components extracted from a discharge signal of a karst spring can provide meaningful hydrological information. Comparison with a physics-based model would however be required in order to complement this

  3. Random walks along the streets and canals in compact cities: Spectral analysis, dynamical modularity, information, and statistical mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volchenkov, D.; Blanchard, Ph.

    2007-02-01

    Different models of random walks on the dual graphs of compact urban structures are considered. Analysis of access times between streets helps to detect the city modularity. The statistical mechanics approach to the ensembles of lazy random walkers is developed. The complexity of city modularity can be measured by an informationlike parameter which plays the role of an individual fingerprint of Genius loci. Global structural properties of a city can be characterized by the thermodynamic parameters calculated in the random walk problem.

  4. SDI: Myth or reality

    SciTech Connect

    Canavan, G.H.

    1988-01-01

    This report reviews previous attempt to develop strategic defenses, the technologies currently under consideration, their main unknowns, and their likely performance relative to evolving threats. 28 refs.

  5. SDI versus MESA Irrigation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    It is known that irrigation application method can impact crop water use and water use efficiency, but the mechanisms involved are incompletely understood, particularly in terms of the water and energy balances during the growing season from pre-irrigation through planting, early growth and yield de...

  6. SDI: implications for NATO strategy and Western European security. An examination of ballistic missile defense in the context of Western European strategic logic

    SciTech Connect

    Soofer, R.M.

    1987-01-01

    This dissertation has four distinctive aspects. 1. By outlining the position of France, Britain, and West Germany on SDI and BMD, it hopes to elucidate the nature and extent of official and private European criticism and support for research into BMD as well as actual deployment of missile defenses - both in the US and Western Europe. 2. By examining European strategic thought as it pertains to deterrence, NATO strategy, and arms control, it attempts to explain the basis for the various views of SDI held by European governments and opposition groups, while affording the reader a better understanding of the Western European security predicament as well. 3. By analyzing the impact of various BMD deployment schemes in the continental US, Western Europe, and Soviet Union - on NATO strategy and European security, it hopes to contribute to the ongoing search for ways to strengthen NATO defense, and hence, deterrence capabilities. 4. Finally, this study seeks to examine the relationship between generally held security paradigms and specific strategic force initiatives. It is concluded that missile defenses of US strategic nuclear forces and command structure, as well as limited area defense of the continental US, would contribute to western European security by strengthening the credibility of the US strategic nuclear guarantee - the bedrock of NATO strategy.

  7. β- transitions of 16 7N9 → 16 8O8 with optimized SDI residual interaction using pnTDA and TDA approximations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahlavani, M. R.; Firoozi, B.

    2015-11-01

    Within a developed particle-hole approach, a systematic study of the β- transition from the ground state of the 16N nucleus to the ground and some exited states of the 16O nucleus has been carried out. The energy spectrum and the wave functions of pure configuration of the 16N and 16O nuclei are numerically obtained using the mean-field shell model with respect to the Woods-Saxon nuclear potential accompanying spin-orbit and Coulomb interaction. Considering SDI residual interaction, mixed configuration of ground and excited pnTDA and TDA states are extracted for the aforementioned nucleus. These energy spectra and corresponding eigenstates are highly correspondent to the experimental energy spectrum and eigenstates after adjusting the residual potential parameters using the Nelder-Mead (NM) algorithm. In this approach, the endpoint energy, log ft and the partial half-lives of some possible transitions are calculated. The obtained results using the optimized SDI approach are reasonably close to the available experimental data.

  8. Modeling the monthly mean soil-water balance with a statistical-dynamical ecohydrology model as coupled to a two-component canopy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kochendorfer, J. P.; Ramírez, J. A.

    2010-10-01

    The statistical-dynamical annual water balance model of Eagleson (1978) is a pioneering work in the analysis of climate, soil and vegetation interactions. This paper describes several enhancements and modifications to the model that improve its physical realism at the expense of its mathematical elegance and analytical tractability. In particular, the analytical solutions for the root zone fluxes are re-derived using separate potential rates of transpiration and bare-soil evaporation. Those potential rates, along with the rate of evaporation from canopy interception, are calculated using the two-component Shuttleworth-Wallace (1985) canopy model. In addition, the soil column is divided into two layers, with the upper layer representing the dynamic root zone. The resulting ability to account for changes in root-zone water storage allows for implementation at the monthly timescale. This new version of the Eagleson model is coined the Statistical-Dynamical Ecohydrology Model (SDEM). The ability of the SDEM to capture the seasonal dynamics of the local-scale soil-water balance is demonstrated for two grassland sites in the US Great Plains. Sensitivity of the results to variations in peak green leaf area index (LAI) suggests that the mean peak green LAI is determined by some minimum in root zone soil moisture during the growing season. That minimum appears to be close to the soil matric potential at which the dominant grass species begins to experience water stress and well above the wilting point, thereby suggesting an ecological optimality hypothesis in which the need to avoid water-stress-induced leaf abscission is balanced by the maximization of carbon assimilation (and associated transpiration). Finally, analysis of the sensitivity of model-determined peak green LAI to soil texture shows that the coupled model is able to reproduce the so-called "inverse texture effect", which consists of the observation that natural vegetation in dry climates tends to be most

  9. Modeling the monthly mean soil-water balance with a statistical-dynamical ecohydrology model as coupled to a two-component canopy model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kochendorfer, J. P.; Ramírez, J. A.

    2008-03-01

    The statistical-dynamical annual water balance model of Eagleson (1978) is a pioneering work in the analysis of climate, soil and vegetation interactions. This paper describes several enhancements and modifications to the model that improve its physical realism at the expense of its mathematical elegance and analytical tractability. In particular, the analytical solutions for the root zone fluxes are re-derived using separate potential rates of transpiration and bare-soil evaporation. Those potential rates, along with the rate of evaporation from canopy interception, are calculated using the two-component Shuttleworth-Wallace (1985) canopy model. In addition, the soil column is divided into two layers, with the upper layer representing the dynamic root zone. The resulting ability to account for changes in root-zone water storage allows for implementation at the monthly timescale. This new version of the Eagleson model is coined the Statistical-Dynamical Ecohydrology Model (SDEM). The ability of the SDEM to capture the seasonal dynamics of the local-scale soil-water balance is demonstrated for two grassland sites in the US Great Plains. Sensitivity of the results to variations in peak green Leaf Area Index (LAI) suggests that the mean peak green LAI is determined by some minimum in root zone soil moisture during the growing season. That minimum appears to be close to the soil matric potential at which the dominant grass species begins to experience water stress and well above the wilting point, thereby suggesting an ecological optimality hypothesis in which the need to avoid water-stress-induced leaf abscission is balanced by the maximization of carbon assimilation (and associated transpiration). Finally, analysis of the sensitivity of model-determined peak green LAI to soil texture shows that the coupled model is able to reproduce the so-called "inverse texture effect", which consists of the observation that natural vegetation in dry climates tends to be most

  10. Retrieval the statistical-dynamical model of western Pacific subtropical high ridge line index and key members of Asian summer monsoon system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Mei; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Chen, Xi; Shi, Jian; Singh, Vijay

    2014-12-01

    The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) is closely correlated with the East Asian climate. To date, the underlying mechanisms and sustaining factors have not been positively elucidated. Based on the concept of dynamical system model reconstruction, this paper presents a nonlinear statistical-dynamical model of the subtropical high ridge line (SHRL) in concurrence with four summer monsoon factors. SHRL variations from 1990 to 2011 are subdivided into three categories, while parameter differences relating to three differing models are examined. Dynamical characteristics of SHRL are analyzed and an aberrance mechanism subsequently developed. Modeling suggests that different parameters may lead to significant variance pertaining to monsoon variables corresponding with numerous WPSH activities. Dynamical system bifurcation and mutation indicates that the South China Sea monsoon trough is a significant factor with respect to the occurrence and maintenance of the 'double-ridge' phenomenon. Moreover, the occurrence of the Mascarene cold high is predicted to cause an abnormal northward location of WPSH, resulting in the “empty plum” phenomenon.

  11. Extra-seasonal prediction of summer 500-hPa height field in the area of cold vortices over East Asia with a dynamical-statistical method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Jun-Hu; Yang, Liu; Hou, Wei; Liu, Gang; Zeng, Yu-Xing

    2015-05-01

    The cold vortex is a major high impact weather system in northeast China during the warm season, its frequent activities also affect the short-term climate throughout eastern China. How to objectively and quantitatively predict the intensity trend of the cold vortex is an urgent and difficult problem for current short-term climate prediction. Based on the dynamical-statistical combining principle, the predicted results of the Beijing Climate Center’s global atmosphere-ocean coupled model and rich historical data are used for dynamic-statistical extra-seasonal prediction testing and actual prediction of the summer 500-hPa geopotential height over the cold vortex activity area. The results show that this method can significantly reduce the model’s prediction error over the cold vortex activity area, and improve the prediction skills. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity test reveal that the predicted results are highly dependent on the quantity of similar factors and the number of similar years. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375078), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955902 and 2013CB430204), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201306021).

  12. Horizontal flow fields observed in Hinode G-band images. IV. Statistical properties of the dynamical environment around pores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, M.; Denker, C.

    2014-03-01

    Context. Solar pores are penumbra-lacking magnetic features, that mark two important transitions in the spectrum of magnetohydrodynamic processes: (1) the magnetic field becomes sufficiently strong to suppress the convective energy transport and (2) at some critical point some pores develop a penumbra and become sunspots. Aims: The purpose of this statistical study is to comprehensively describe solar pores in terms of their size, perimeter, shape, photometric properties, and horizontal proper motions. The seeing-free and uniform data of the Japanese Hinode mission provide an opportunity to compare flow fields in the vicinity of pores in different environments and at various stages of their evolution. Methods: The extensive database of high-resolution G-band images observed with the Hinode Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) is a unique resource to derive statistical properties of pores using advanced digital image processing techniques. The study is based on two data sets: (1) photometric and morphological properties inferred from single G-band images cover almost seven years from 2006 October 25 to 2013 August 31; and (2) horizontal flow fields derived from 356 one-hour sequences of G-band images using local correlation tracking (LCT) for a shorter period of time from 2006 November 3 to 2008 January 6 comprising 13 active regions. Results: A total of 7643/2863 (single/time-averaged) pores builds the foundation of the statistical analysis. Pores are preferentially observed at low latitudes in the southern hemisphere during the deep minimum of solar cycle No. 23. This imbalance reverses during the rise of cycle No. 24, when the pores migrate from high to low latitudes. Pores are rarely encountered in quiet-Sun G-band images, and only about 10% of pores exist in isolation. In general, pores do not exhibit a circular shape. Typical aspect ratios of the semi-major and -minor axes are 3:2 when ellipses are fitted to pores. Smaller pores (more than two-thirds are smaller than

  13. Emergent Behavior in Slow-Fast Landscape-Climate Dynamics: Evidence from Spatiotemporal Flood Statistics and a Nonlinear Dynamical Model of Coevolution.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdigão, R. A. P.; Bloeschl, G.

    2014-12-01

    Emergent features of landscape-climate coevolution are evaluated on the basis of the sensitivity of floods to annual precipitation in space and time. For that purpose, a spatiotemporal sensitivity analysis is performed at regional scale using data from 804 catchments in Austria from 1976 to 2008. Results show that flood peaks are more responsive to spatial (regional) than to temporal (decadal) variability. Space-wise a 10% increase in precipitation leads to a 23% increase in flood peaks in Austria, whereas timewise a 10% increase in precipitation leads to an increase of just 6% in flood peaks. Catchments from dry lowlands and high wetlands exhibit similarity between the spatial and temporal sensitivities (spatiotemporal symmetry) and low landscape-climate codependence. This suggests that such regions are not coevolving significantly. However, intermediate regions show differences between those sensitivities (symmetry breaks) and higher landscape-climate codependence, suggesting undergoing coevolution. The break of symmetry is considered an emergent behavior of the coupled system. A new coevolution index is then proposed relating spatiotemporal symmetry with relative characteristic celerities. The descriptive assessment of coevolution is complemented by a simple nonlinear dynamical model of landscape-climate coevolution, in which landform evolution processes take place at the millennial scale (slow dynamics), and climate adjusts in years to decades (fast dynamics). Coevolution is expressed by the interplay between slow and fast dynamics, represented, respectively, by spatial and temporal characteristics. The model captures key features of the joint landscape-climate distribution, supporting the descriptive assessment. This paper ultimately brings to light signatures of coevolution that arise from the nonlinear coupling of the landscape-climate system at slow and fast time scales. The presented work builds on Perdigão and Blöschl (2014). Perdigão, R. A. P., and G

  14. Cosmic statistics of statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szapudi, István; Colombi, Stéphane; Bernardeau, Francis

    1999-12-01

    The errors on statistics measured in finite galaxy catalogues are exhaustively investigated. The theory of errors on factorial moments by Szapudi & Colombi is applied to cumulants via a series expansion method. All results are subsequently extended to the weakly non-linear regime. Together with previous investigations this yields an analytic theory of the errors for moments and connected moments of counts in cells from highly non-linear to weakly non-linear scales. For non-linear functions of unbiased estimators, such as the cumulants, the phenomenon of cosmic bias is identified and computed. Since it is subdued by the cosmic errors in the range of applicability of the theory, correction for it is inconsequential. In addition, the method of Colombi, Szapudi & Szalay concerning sampling effects is generalized, adapting the theory for inhomogeneous galaxy catalogues. While previous work focused on the variance only, the present article calculates the cross-correlations between moments and connected moments as well for a statistically complete description. The final analytic formulae representing the full theory are explicit but somewhat complicated. Therefore we have made available a fortran program capable of calculating the described quantities numerically (for further details e-mail SC at colombi@iap.fr). An important special case is the evaluation of the errors on the two-point correlation function, for which this should be more accurate than any method put forward previously. This tool will be immensely useful in the future for assessing the precision of measurements from existing catalogues, as well as aiding the design of new galaxy surveys. To illustrate the applicability of the results and to explore the numerical aspects of the theory qualitatively and quantitatively, the errors and cross-correlations are predicted under a wide range of assumptions for the future Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The principal results concerning the cumulants ξ, Q3 and Q4 is that

  15. Investigating anthropically induced effects in streamflow dynamics by using permutation entropy and statistical complexity analysis: A case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stosic, Tatijana; Telesca, Luciano; de Souza Ferreira, Diego Vicente; Stosic, Borko

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we investigated the influence of the construction of Sobradinho dam on daily streamflow of São Francisco river, Brazil, using permutation entropy method. We analyzed a long daily streamflow time series recorded during the period 1929-2010 encompassing the construction of Sobradinho dam between 1973 and 1979. We found that the original and deseasonalized streamflow time series are characterized by clear different complexity and entropy patterns before the construction of the dam; while, after it, their degree of randomness and complexity are nearly identical. Furthermore, investigating the oscillatory behavior of the entropy and complexity time variation, the periodicity of 3.67 years was identified, identical to one of the main periodicities revealed in the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Such finding confirms the close relationship between streamflow dynamics and ENSO phenomenon. After the construction of the dam, the time variation of entropy and complexity changes almost abruptly toward stochastic regime characterized by higher entropy and lower complexity. Although the dam operations could be considered responsible for such abrupt dynamical change in the streamflow, we cannot exclude the presence of a co-induced ENSO effect; in fact, the analysis of MEI shows a strikingly similar and concomitant change in the long-term trend, identified by using the singular spectrum analysis.

  16. Evaluation of the impact of quorum sensing transcriptional regulator SdiA on long-term persistence and fecal shedding of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in weaned calves

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Quorum sensing transcriptional regulator SdiA has been shown to enhance the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 (O157) in the acidic compartment of bovine rumen in response to N-acyl-L-homoserine lactones (AHLs) produced by the rumen bacteria. Bacteria that survive the rumen environment subsequentl...

  17. Modelling of future mass balance changes of Norwegian glaciers by application of a dynamical-statistical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mutz, Sebastian; Paeth, Heiko; Winkler, Stefan

    2016-03-01

    The long-term behaviour of Norwegian glaciers is reflected by the long mass-balance records provided by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate. These show positive annual mass balances in the 1980s and 1990s at maritime glaciers followed by rapid mass loss since 2000. This study assesses the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass changes of selected Norwegian glaciers by correlation- and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The atmospheric variables are constructed from reanalyses by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Transfer functions determined by the multiple regression are applied to predictors derived from a multi-model ensemble of climate projections to estimate future mass-balance changes until 2100. The statistical relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the strongest predictor, is highest for maritime glaciers and less for more continental ones. The mass surplus in the 1980s and 1990s can be attributed to a strong NAO phase and lower air temperatures during the ablation season. The mass loss since 2000 can be explained by an increase of summer air temperatures and a slight weakening of the NAO. From 2000 to 2100 the statistical model predicts predicts changes for glaciers in more continental settings of c. -20 m w.e. (water equivalent) or 0.2 m w.e./a. The corresponding range for their more maritime counterparts is -0.5 to +0.2 m w.e./a. Results from Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states associated with high melt or high accumulation in the past into different simulated climates in the future suggest that climatic conditions towards the end of the twenty-first century favour less winterly accumulation and more ablation in summer. The posterior probabilities for high accumulation at the end of the twenty-first century are typically 1.5-3 times lower than in the twentieth century while the posterior

  18. Model-based statistical estimation of Sandia RF ohmic switch dynamic operation form stroboscopic, x-ray imaging.

    SciTech Connect

    Diegert, Carl F.

    2006-12-01

    We define a new diagnostic method where computationally-intensive numerical solutions are used as an integral part of making difficult, non-contact, nanometer-scale measurements. The limited scope of this report comprises most of a due diligence investigation into implementing the new diagnostic for measuring dynamic operation of Sandia's RF Ohmic Switch. Our results are all positive, providing insight into how this switch deforms during normal operation. Future work should contribute important measurements on a variety of operating MEMS devices, with insights that are complimentary to those from measurements made using interferometry and laser Doppler methods. More generally, the work opens up a broad front of possibility where exploiting massive high-performance computers enable new measurements.

  19. A unified N-body and statistical treatment of stellar dynamics. III - Early postcollapse evolution of globular clusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmillan, S. L. W.

    1986-01-01

    The period immediately following the core collapse phase in the evolution of a globular cluster is studied using a hybrid N-body/Fokker-Planck stellar dynamical code. Several core oscillations of the type predicted in earlier work are seen. The oscillations are driven by the formation, hardening, and ejection of binaries by three-body processes, and appear to decay on a timescale of about 10 to the 7th yr, for the choice of 'typical' cluster parameters made here. There is no evidence that they are gravothermal in nature. The mechanisms responsible for the decay are discussed in some detail. The distribution of hard binaries produced by the oscillations is compared with theoretical expectations and the longer term evolution of the system is considered.

  20. A statistical dynamical study of meteorite impactors: A case study based on parameters derived from the Bosumtwi impact event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galiazzo, M. A.; Bazsó, Á.; Huber, M. S.; Losiak, A.; Dvorak, R.; Koeberl, C.

    2013-11-01

    The study of meteorite craters on Earth provides information about the dynamic evolution of bodies within the Solar System. the Bosumtwi crater is a well studied, 10.5 km in diameter, ca. 1.07 Myr old impact structure located in Ghana. (Koeberl et al., 1997a). The impactor was ˜ 1 km in diameter, an ordinary chondrite and struck the Earth with an angle between 30o and 45o (Artemieva et al., 2004) from the horizontal. We have used a two phase backward integration to constrain the most probable parent region of the impactor. We find that the most likely source region is a high inclination object from the Middle Main Belt.

  1. Statistical and dynamical properties of covariant lyapunov vectors in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model—multiscale effects, geometric degeneracy, and error dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vannitsem, Stéphane; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-06-01

    We study a simplified coupled atmosphere-ocean model using the formalism of covariant Lyapunov vectors (CLVs), which link physically-based directions of perturbations to growth/decay rates. The model is obtained via a severe truncation of quasi-geostrophic equations for the two fluids, and includes a simple yet physically meaningful representation of their dynamical/thermodynamical coupling. The model has 36 degrees of freedom, and the parameters are chosen so that a chaotic behaviour is observed. There are two positive Lyapunov exponents (LEs), sixteen negative LEs, and eighteen near-zero LEs. The presence of many near-zero LEs results from the vast time-scale separation between the characteristic time scales of the two fluids, and leads to nontrivial error growth properties in the tangent space spanned by the corresponding CLVs, which are geometrically very degenerate. Such CLVs correspond to two different classes of ocean/atmosphere coupled modes. The tangent space spanned by the CLVs corresponding to the positive and negative LEs has, instead, a non-pathological behaviour, and one can construct robust large deviations laws for the finite time LEs, thus providing a universal model for assessing predictability on long to ultra-long scales along such directions. Interestingly, the tangent space of the unstable manifold has substantial projection on both atmospheric and oceanic components. The results show the difficulties in using hyperbolicity as a conceptual framework for multiscale chaotic dynamical systems, whereas the framework of partial hyperbolicity seems better suited, possibly indicating an alternative definition for the chaotic hypothesis. They also suggest the need for an accurate analysis of error dynamics on different time scales and domains and for a careful set-up of assimilation schemes when looking at coupled atmosphere-ocean models.

  2. Mass action law versus local contagion dynamics. A mean-field statistical approach with application to the theory of epidemics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ovidiu Vlad, Marcel; Schönfisch, Birgitt

    1996-08-01

    A mean-field approach for epidemic processes with high migration is suggested by analogy with non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. For large systems a limit of the thermodynamic type is introduced for which both the total size of the system and the total number of individuals tend to infinity but the population density remains constant. In the thermodynamic limit the infection rate is proportional to the product of the proportion of individuals susceptible to infection and the average probability of infection. The limit form of the average probability of infection is insensitive to the detailed behaviour of the fluctuations of the number of infectious individuals and may belong to two universality classes: (1) if the fluctuation of the number of infectives is non-intermittent it increases with the increase of the partial density of infectives and approaches exponentially the asymptotic value one for large densities; (2) for intermittent fluctuations obeying a power-law scaling the average probability of infection also displays a saturation effect for large densities of infectives but the asymptotic value one is approached according to a power law rather than exponentially. For low densities of infectives both expressions for the average probability of infection are linear functions of the proportion of infectives and the infection rate is given by the mass-action law.

  3. Statistical and dynamical analysis of internal waves on the continental shelf of the Middle Atlantic Bight from Space Shuttle photographs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zheng, Quanan; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Klemas, Vic

    1993-01-01

    The internal waves on the continental shelf on the Middle Atlantic Bight seen on Space Shuttle photographs taken during the STS-40 mission in June 1991 are measured and analyzed. The internal wave field in the sample area has a three-level structure which consists of packet groups, packets, and solitons. An average packet group wavelength of 17.5 km and an average soliton wavelength of 0.6 km are measured. Finite-depth theory is used to derive the dynamic parameters of the internal solitons: the maximum amplitude of 5.6 m, the characteristic phase speed of 0.42 m/s, the characteristic period of 23.8 min, the velocity amplitude of the water particles in the upper and lower layers of 0.13 m/s and 0.030 m/s respectively, and the theoretical energy per unit crest line of 6.8 x 10 exp 4 J/m. The frequency distribution of solitons is triple-peaked rather than continuous. The major generation source is at 160 m water depth, and a second is at 1800 m depth, corresponding to the upper and lower edges of the shelf break.

  4. Statistical treatment of photon/electron counting: extending the linear dynamic range from the dark count rate to saturation.

    PubMed

    Kissick, David J; Muir, Ryan D; Simpson, Garth J

    2010-12-15

    An experimentally simple photon counting method is demonstrated providing 7 orders of magnitude in linear dynamic range (LDR) for a single photomultiplier tube (PMT) detector. In conventional photon/electron counting methods, the linear range is dictated by the agreement between the binomially distributed measurement of counted events and the underlying Poisson distribution of photons/electrons. By explicitly considering the log-normal probability distribution in voltage transients as a function of the number of photons present and the Poisson distribution of photons, observed counts for a given threshold can be related to the mean number of photons well beyond the conventional limit. Analytical expressions are derived relating counts and photons that extend the linear range to an average of ∼11 photons arriving simultaneously with a single threshold. These expressions can be evaluated numerically for multiple thresholds extending the linear range to the saturation point of the PMT. The peak voltage distributions are experimentally shown to follow a Poisson weighted sum of log-normal distributions that can all be derived from the single photoelectron voltage peak-height distribution. The LDR that results from this method is compared to conventional single photon counting (SPC) and to signal averaging by analog to digital conversion (ADC). PMID:21114249

  5. Estimation of statistical binding properties of ligand population during in vitro selection based on population dynamics theory.

    PubMed

    Aita, Takuyo; Nishigaki, Koichi; Husimi, Yuzuru

    2014-01-01

    During in vitro selection process, it is very valuable to monitor the binding properties of the ligand population in real time, particularly the population average of the association constant in the population. If this monitoring can be realized, the selection process can be controlled in a rational way. In this paper, we present a simple method to estimate the binding properties of the ligand population during in vitro selection. The framework of the method is as follows. First, the number of all the collected ligand molecules, which are eluted after incubation and washing, is measured. Ideally, this number corresponds to the number of all the ligand molecules bound with the target-receptor or other materials in a test tube. This measurement is performed through several successive rounds of selection. Second, the measured numbers of molecules are subjected to a theoretical analysis, based on the mathematical theory of population dynamics in the selection process. Then, we can estimate the probability density of the binding free energy in the ligand population. The validity of our method was confirmed by several computer simulations based on a physicochemical model. PMID:24239675

  6. A statistical-dynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part II: methodology, validation and application to high-resolution ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minvielle, Marie; Cassou, Christophe; Bourdallé-Badie, Romain; Terray, Laurent; Najac, Julien

    2011-02-01

    A novel statistical-dynamical scheme has been developed to reconstruct the sea surface atmospheric variables necessary to force an ocean model. Multiple linear regressions are first built over a so-called learning period and over the entire Atlantic basin from the observed relationship between the surface wind conditions, or predictands, and the anomalous large scale atmospheric circulations, or predictors. The latter are estimated in the extratropics by 500 hPa geopotential height weather regimes and in the tropics by low-level wind classes. The transfer function further combined to an analog step is then used to reconstruct all the surface variables fields over 1958-2002. We show that the proposed hybrid scheme is very skillful in reproducing the mean state, the seasonal cycle and the temporal evolution of all the surface ocean variables at interannual timescale. Deficiencies are found in the level of variance especially in the tropics. It is underestimated for 2-m temperature and humidity as well as for surface radiative fluxes in the interannual frequency band while it is slightly overestimated at higher frequency. Decomposition in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) shows that the spatial and temporal coherence of the forcing fields is however very well captured by the reconstruction method. For dynamical downscaling purposes, reconstructed fields are then interpolated and used to carry out a high-resolution oceanic simulation using the NATL4 (1/4°) model integrated over 1979-2001. This simulation is compared to a reference experiment where the original observed forcing fields are prescribed instead. Mean states between the two experiments are virtually undistinguishable both in terms of surface fluxes and ocean dynamics estimated by the barotropic and the meridional overturning streamfunctions. The 3-dimensional variance of the simulated ocean is well preserved at interannual timescale both for temperature and salinity except in the tropics where it is

  7. Statistical analysis of the dynamics of secondary electrons in the flare of a high-voltage beam-type discharge

    SciTech Connect

    Demkin, V. P.; Mel'nichuk, S. V.

    2014-09-15

    In the present work, results of investigations into the dynamics of secondary electrons with helium atoms in the presence of the reverse electric field arising in the flare of a high-voltage pulsed beam-type discharge and leading to degradation of the primary electron beam are presented. The electric field in the discharge of this type at moderate pressures can reach several hundred V/cm and leads to considerable changes in the kinetics of secondary electrons created in the process of propagation of the electron beam generated in the accelerating gap with a grid anode. Moving in the accelerating electric field toward the anode, secondary electrons create the so-called compensating current to the anode. The character of electron motion and the compensating current itself are determined by the ratio of the field strength to the concentration of atoms (E/n). The energy and angular spectra of secondary electrons are calculated by the Monte Carlo method for different ratios E/n of the electric field strength to the helium atom concentration. The motion of secondary electrons with threshold energy is studied for inelastic collisions of helium atoms and differential analysis is carried out of the collisional processes causing energy losses of electrons in helium for different E/n values. The mechanism of creation and accumulation of slow electrons as a result of inelastic collisions of secondary electrons with helium atoms and selective population of metastable states of helium atoms is considered. It is demonstrated that in a wide range of E/n values the motion of secondary electrons in the beam-type discharge flare has the character of drift. At E/n values characteristic for the discharge of the given type, the drift velocity of these electrons is calculated and compared with the available experimental data.

  8. Understanding Dynamics of Information Transmission in Drosophila melanogaster Using a Statistical Modeling Framework for Longitudinal Network Data (the RSiena Package)

    PubMed Central

    Pasquaretta, Cristian; Klenschi, Elizabeth; Pansanel, Jérôme; Battesti, Marine; Mery, Frederic; Sueur, Cédric

    2016-01-01

    Social learning – the transmission of behaviors through observation or interaction with conspecifics – can be viewed as a decision-making process driven by interactions among individuals. Animal group structures change over time and interactions among individuals occur in particular orders that may be repeated following specific patterns, change in their nature, or disappear completely. Here we used a stochastic actor-oriented model built using the RSiena package in R to estimate individual behaviors and their changes through time, by analyzing the dynamic of the interaction network of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster during social learning experiments. In particular, we re-analyzed an experimental dataset where uninformed flies, left free to interact with informed ones, acquired and later used information about oviposition site choice obtained by social interactions. We estimated the degree to which the uninformed flies had successfully acquired the information carried by informed individuals using the proportion of eggs laid by uninformed flies on the medium their conspecifics had been trained to favor. Regardless of the degree of information acquisition measured in uninformed individuals, they always received and started interactions more frequently than informed ones did. However, information was efficiently transmitted (i.e., uninformed flies predominantly laid eggs on the same medium informed ones had learn to prefer) only when the difference in contacts sent between the two fly types was small. Interestingly, we found that the degree of reciprocation, the tendency of individuals to form mutual connections between each other, strongly affected oviposition site choice in uninformed flies. This work highlights the great potential of RSiena and its utility in the studies of interaction networks among non-human animals. PMID:27148146

  9. Understanding Dynamics of Information Transmission in Drosophila melanogaster Using a Statistical Modeling Framework for Longitudinal Network Data (the RSiena Package).

    PubMed

    Pasquaretta, Cristian; Klenschi, Elizabeth; Pansanel, Jérôme; Battesti, Marine; Mery, Frederic; Sueur, Cédric

    2016-01-01

    Social learning - the transmission of behaviors through observation or interaction with conspecifics - can be viewed as a decision-making process driven by interactions among individuals. Animal group structures change over time and interactions among individuals occur in particular orders that may be repeated following specific patterns, change in their nature, or disappear completely. Here we used a stochastic actor-oriented model built using the RSiena package in R to estimate individual behaviors and their changes through time, by analyzing the dynamic of the interaction network of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster during social learning experiments. In particular, we re-analyzed an experimental dataset where uninformed flies, left free to interact with informed ones, acquired and later used information about oviposition site choice obtained by social interactions. We estimated the degree to which the uninformed flies had successfully acquired the information carried by informed individuals using the proportion of eggs laid by uninformed flies on the medium their conspecifics had been trained to favor. Regardless of the degree of information acquisition measured in uninformed individuals, they always received and started interactions more frequently than informed ones did. However, information was efficiently transmitted (i.e., uninformed flies predominantly laid eggs on the same medium informed ones had learn to prefer) only when the difference in contacts sent between the two fly types was small. Interestingly, we found that the degree of reciprocation, the tendency of individuals to form mutual connections between each other, strongly affected oviposition site choice in uninformed flies. This work highlights the great potential of RSiena and its utility in the studies of interaction networks among non-human animals. PMID:27148146

  10. Statistical analysis of the dynamics of secondary electrons in the flare of a high-voltage beam-type discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demkin, V. P.; Mel'nichuk, S. V.

    2014-09-01

    In the present work, results of investigations into the dynamics of secondary electrons with helium atoms in the presence of the reverse electric field arising in the flare of a high-voltage pulsed beam-type discharge and leading to degradation of the primary electron beam are presented. The electric field in the discharge of this type at moderate pressures can reach several hundred V/cm and leads to considerable changes in the kinetics of secondary electrons created in the process of propagation of the electron beam generated in the accelerating gap with a grid anode. Moving in the accelerating electric field toward the anode, secondary electrons create the so-called compensating current to the anode. The character of electron motion and the compensating current itself are determined by the ratio of the field strength to the concentration of atoms (Е/n). The energy and angular spectra of secondary electrons are calculated by the Monte Carlo method for different ratios E/n of the electric field strength to the helium atom concentration. The motion of secondary electrons with threshold energy is studied for inelastic collisions of helium atoms and differential analysis is carried out of the collisional processes causing energy losses of electrons in helium for different E/n values. The mechanism of creation and accumulation of slow electrons as a result of inelastic collisions of secondary electrons with helium atoms and selective population of metastable states of helium atoms is considered. It is demonstrated that in a wide range of E/n values the motion of secondary electrons in the beam-type discharge flare has the character of drift. At E/n values characteristic for the discharge of the given type, the drift velocity of these electrons is calculated and compared with the available experimental data.

  11. Real-time dynamic range and signal to noise enhancement in beam-scanning microscopy by integration of sensor characteristics, data acquisition hardware, and statistical methods.

    PubMed

    Kissick, David J; Muir, Ryan D; Sullivan, Shane Z; Oglesbee, Robert A; Simpson, Garth J

    2013-02-14

    Despite the ubiquitous use of multi-photon and confocal microscopy measurements in biology, the core techniques typically suffer from fundamental compromises between signal to noise (S/N) and linear dynamic range (LDR). In this study, direct synchronous digitization of voltage transients coupled with statistical analysis is shown to allow S/N approaching the theoretical maximum throughout an LDR spanning more than 8 decades, limited only by the dark counts of the detector on the low end and by the intrinsic nonlinearities of the photomultiplier tube (PMT) detector on the high end. Synchronous digitization of each voltage transient represents a fundamental departure from established methods in confocal/multi-photon imaging, which are currently based on either photon counting or signal averaging. High information-density data acquisition (up to 3.2 GB/s of raw data) enables the smooth transition between the two modalities on a pixel-by-pixel basis and the ultimate writing of much smaller files (few kB/s). Modeling of the PMT response allows extraction of key sensor parameters from the histogram of voltage peak-heights. Applications in second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy are described demonstrating S/N approaching the shot-noise limit of the detector over large dynamic ranges. PMID:24817799

  12. Real-time dynamic range and signal to noise enhancement in beam-scanning microscopy by integration of sensor characteristics, data acquisition hardware, and statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kissick, David J.; Muir, Ryan D.; Sullivan, Shane Z.; Oglesbee, Robert A.; Simpson, Garth J.

    2013-02-01

    Despite the ubiquitous use of multi-photon and confocal microscopy measurements in biology, the core techniques typically suffer from fundamental compromises between signal to noise (S/N) and linear dynamic range (LDR). In this study, direct synchronous digitization of voltage transients coupled with statistical analysis is shown to allow S/N approaching the theoretical maximum throughout an LDR spanning more than 8 decades, limited only by the dark counts of the detector on the low end and by the intrinsic nonlinearities of the photomultiplier tube (PMT) detector on the high end. Synchronous digitization of each voltage transient represents a fundamental departure from established methods in confocal/multi-photon imaging, which are currently based on either photon counting or signal averaging. High information-density data acquisition (up to 3.2 GB/s of raw data) enables the smooth transition between the two modalities on a pixel-by-pixel basis and the ultimate writing of much smaller files (few kB/s). Modeling of the PMT response allows extraction of key sensor parameters from the histogram of voltage peak-heights. Applications in second harmonic generation (SHG) microscopy are described demonstrating S/N approaching the shot-noise limit of the detector over large dynamic ranges.

  13. Statistical Estimation of the Protein-Ligand Binding Free Energy Based On Direct Protein-Ligand Interaction Obtained by Molecular Dynamics Simulation

    PubMed Central

    Fukunishi, Yoshifumi; Nakamura, Haruki

    2012-01-01

    We have developed a method for estimating protein-ligand binding free energy (ΔG) based on the direct protein-ligand interaction obtained by a molecular dynamics simulation. Using this method, we estimated the ΔG value statistically by the average values of the van der Waals and electrostatic interactions between each amino acid of the target protein and the ligand molecule. In addition, we introduced fluctuations in the accessible surface area (ASA) and dihedral angles of the protein-ligand complex system as the entropy terms of the ΔG estimation. The present method included the fluctuation term of structural change of the protein and the effective dielectric constant. We applied this method to 34 protein-ligand complex structures. As a result, the correlation coefficient between the experimental and calculated ΔG values was 0.81, and the average error of ΔG was 1.2 kcal/mol with the use of the fixed parameters. These results were obtained from a 2 nsec molecular dynamics simulation. PMID:24281257

  14. Descriptive statistics.

    PubMed

    Shi, Runhua; McLarty, Jerry W

    2009-10-01

    In this article, we introduced basic concepts of statistics, type of distributions, and descriptive statistics. A few examples were also provided. The basic concepts presented herein are only a fraction of the concepts related to descriptive statistics. Also, there are many commonly used distributions not presented herein, such as Poisson distributions for rare events and exponential distributions, F distributions, and logistic distributions. More information can be found in many statistics books and publications. PMID:19891281

  15. Statistical Diversions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2008-01-01

    As a branch of knowledge, Statistics is ubiquitous and its applications can be found in (almost) every field of human endeavour. In this article, the authors track down the possible source of the link between the "Siren song" and applications of Statistics. Answers to their previous five questions and five new questions on Statistics are presented.

  16. Bayesian Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Donald L.

    Bayesian statistical methodology and its possible uses in the behavioral sciences are discussed in relation to the solution of problems in both the use and teaching of fundamental statistical methods, including confidence intervals, significance tests, and sampling. The Bayesian model explains these statistical methods and offers a consistent…

  17. Étude statistique et dynamique de la propagation d'épidémies dans un réseau de petit mondeStatistical and dynamical study of the epidemics propagation in a small world network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zekri, Nouredine; Clerc, Jean Pierre

    We study numerically in this work the statistical and dynamical properties of the clusters in a one dimensional small world model. The parameters chosen correspond to a realistic network of children of school age where a disease like measles can propagate. Extensive results on the statistical behavior of the clusters around the percolation threshold, as well as the evoltion with time, are discussed. To cite this article: N. Zekri, J.P. Clerc, C. R. Physique 3 (2002) 741-747.

  18. Projecting Mid- and End-of-Century Climate Change in the Los Angeles Mountainous Region by a Combination of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Reich, K.

    2013-12-01

    Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we produced 2-km-resolution regional climate reconstructions and future projections of surface warming and snowfall changes in the Los Angeles region at the middle and end of the 21st century. Projections for both time periods were compared to a validated simulation of a baseline period (1981-2000). We examined outcomes associated with two IPCC-AR5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: a "business-as-usual" scenario (RCP8.5) and a "mitigation" scenario (RCP2.6). Output from all available global climate models in the CMIP5 archive was downscaled. We first statistically downscaled surface warming and then applied a statistical model between the surface temperature and snowfall to project the snowfall change. By mid-century, the mountainous areas in the Los Angeles region are likely to receive substantially less snowfall than in the baseline period. In RCP8.5, about 60% of the snowfall is most likely to persist, while in RCP2.6, the likely amount remaining is somewhat higher (about 70%). By end-of-century, however, the two scenarios diverge significantly. In RCP8.5, snowfall sees a dramatic further reduction, with only about a third of baseline snowfall persisting. For RCP2.6, snowfall sees only a negligible further reduction from mid-century. Due to significant differences in climate change outcomes across the global models, we estimated these numbers associated with uncertainty, in the range of 15-30 percentage points. For both scenarios and both time slices, the snowfall loss is consistently greatest at low elevations, and the lower-lying mountain ranges are somewhat more vulnerable to snowfall loss. The similarity in the two scenarios' most likely snowfall outcomes at mid-century illustrates the inevitability of climate change in the coming decades, no matter what mitigation measures are taken. Their stark contrast at century's end reveals that reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will help

  19. iCFD: Interpreted Computational Fluid Dynamics - Degeneration of CFD to one-dimensional advection-dispersion models using statistical experimental design - The secondary clarifier.

    PubMed

    Guyonvarch, Estelle; Ramin, Elham; Kulahci, Murat; Plósz, Benedek Gy

    2015-10-15

    The present study aims at using statistically designed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations as numerical experiments for the identification of one-dimensional (1-D) advection-dispersion models - computationally light tools, used e.g., as sub-models in systems analysis. The objective is to develop a new 1-D framework, referred to as interpreted CFD (iCFD) models, in which statistical meta-models are used to calculate the pseudo-dispersion coefficient (D) as a function of design and flow boundary conditions. The method - presented in a straightforward and transparent way - is illustrated using the example of a circular secondary settling tank (SST). First, the significant design and flow factors are screened out by applying the statistical method of two-level fractional factorial design of experiments. Second, based on the number of significant factors identified through the factor screening study and system understanding, 50 different sets of design and flow conditions are selected using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The boundary condition sets are imposed on a 2-D axi-symmetrical CFD simulation model of the SST. In the framework, to degenerate the 2-D model structure, CFD model outputs are approximated by the 1-D model through the calibration of three different model structures for D. Correlation equations for the D parameter then are identified as a function of the selected design and flow boundary conditions (meta-models), and their accuracy is evaluated against D values estimated in each numerical experiment. The evaluation and validation of the iCFD model structure is carried out using scenario simulation results obtained with parameters sampled from the corners of the LHS experimental region. For the studied SST, additional iCFD model development was carried out in terms of (i) assessing different density current sub-models; (ii) implementation of a combined flocculation, hindered, transient and compression settling velocity function; and (iii

  20. Statistical databases

    SciTech Connect

    Kogalovskii, M.R.

    1995-03-01

    This paper presents a review of problems related to statistical database systems, which are wide-spread in various fields of activity. Statistical databases (SDB) are referred to as databases that consist of data and are used for statistical analysis. Topics under consideration are: SDB peculiarities, properties of data models adequate for SDB requirements, metadata functions, null-value problems, SDB compromise protection problems, stored data compression techniques, and statistical data representation means. Also examined is whether the present Database Management Systems (DBMS) satisfy the SDB requirements. Some actual research directions in SDB systems are considered.

  1. Morbidity statistics

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Alwyn

    1969-01-01

    This paper is based on an analysis of questionnaires sent to the health ministries of Member States of WHO asking for information about the extent, nature, and scope of morbidity statistical information. It is clear that most countries collect some statistics of morbidity and many countries collect extensive data. However, few countries relate their collection to the needs of health administrators for information, and many countries collect statistics principally for publication in annual volumes which may appear anything up to 3 years after the year to which they refer. The desiderata of morbidity statistics may be summarized as reliability, representativeness, and relevance to current health problems. PMID:5306722

  2. Statistical physics of earthquakes: Comparison of distribution exponents for source area and potential energy and the dynamic emergence of log-periodic energy quanta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Main, Ian G.; O'Brien, Gareth; Henderson, Jeremy R.

    2000-03-01

    We investigate the relationship between the size distribution of earthquake rupture area and the underlying elastic potential energy distribution in a cellular automaton model for earthquake dynamics. The frequency-rupture area distribution has the form n(S) ˜Sτ exp (-S/So) and the system potential energy distribution from the elastic Hamiltonian has the form n(E) ˜Ev exp (-E/θ), both gamma distributions. Here n(S) reduces to the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude law, with slope b ˜τ, in the limit that the correlation length ξ, related to the characteristic source size So, tends to infinity. The form of the energy distribution is consistent with a statistical mechanical model with l degrees of freedom, where v = (l-2)/2 and θ is proportional to the mean energy per site ? . We examine the effect of the local energy conservation factor β and the degree of material heterogeneity (quenched disorder) on the distribution parameters, which vary systematically with the controlling variables. The inferred correlation length increases systematically with increasing material homogeneity and with increasing β. The thermal parameter θ varies systematically between the leaf springs and the connecting springs, and is proportional to ? as predicted. For heterogeneous faults, τ ˜1 stays relatively constant, consistent with field observation, and S0 increases with increasing β or decreasing heterogeneity. In contrast, smooth faults produce a systematic decrease in τ with respect to β and So remains relatively constant. For high β approximately log-periodic quanta emerge spontaneously from the dynamics in the form of modulations on the energy distribution. The output energy for both types of fault shows a transition from strongly quasi-periodic temporal fluctuations for strong dissipation, to more chaotic fluctuations for more conservative models. Only strongly heterogeneous faults show the small fluctuations in energy strictly required by models of self

  3. A dynamical-statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xun; Yang, Song; Wang, Hui; Jia, Xiaolong; Kumar, Arun

    2013-11-01

    A dynamical-statistical forecast model for the annual tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific is developed based on the empirical relationship between the actual annual number of tropical cyclones (ANTCs) and the dynamical predictions of large-scale variables by the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). On interannual time scales, the ANTCs are significantly and negatively correlated with the July-October tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature, tropical western Pacific vertical zonal wind shear (WPVZWS), and subtropical Pacific geopotential height at 500 hPa (HGT500). They are also positively correlated with the zonal wind at 850 hPa over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Skillful forecasts of the above four potential predictors are made with the 24-member ensemble predictions by the NCEP model. The two-predictor model with the HGT500 and the WPVZWS shows the most skillful hindcasts at 0-2 month leads assessed by the leave-one-out cross validation for the ANTCs over the 31 year record between 1982 and 2012. The corresponding correlation coefficients and the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) between the observed and hindcast ANTCs are in the ranges from 0.73 to 0.79 and from 3.11 to 2.75, respectively. Observed ANTCs during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events are generally well captured with RMSEs ranging from 3.12 to 3.04 during El Niño years and from 3.62 to 2.44 during La Niña years. The forecast skill of the model for the past 10 years (2003-2012) is competitive with the current forecast schemes. The forecast model initialized in March, May, and June 2013 suggests an inactive season for 2013, with about 22 tropical cyclones.

  4. Statistical Diversions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…

  5. A combined dynamical and statistical downscaling technique to reduce biases in climate projections: an example for winter precipitation and snowpack in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, R.; Wang, S.-Y.; Gillies, R. R.

    2016-04-01

    Large biases associated with climate projections are problematic when it comes to their regional application in the assessment of water resources and ecosystems. Here, we demonstrate a method that can reduce systematic biases in regional climate projections. The global and regional climate models employed to demonstrate the technique are the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The method first utilized a statistical regression technique and a global reanalysis dataset to correct biases in the CCSM-simulated variables (e.g., temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, and winds) that are subsequently used to drive the WRF model. The WRF simulations were conducted for the western United States and were driven with (a) global reanalysis, (b) original CCSM, and (c) bias-corrected CCSM data. The bias-corrected CCSM data led to a more realistic regional climate simulation of precipitation and associated atmospheric dynamics, as well as snow water equivalent (SWE), in comparison to the original CCSM-driven WRF simulation. Since most climate applications rely on existing global model output as the forcing data (i.e., they cannot re-run or change the global model), which often contain large biases, this method provides an effective and economical tool to reduce biases in regional climate downscaling simulations of water resource variables.

  6. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  7. Analysis of the relationship between ultrasound of breast cancer DOT-SDI and the expression of MVD, VEGF and HIF-1α.

    PubMed

    Wang, Hai-long; Zhang, Zhou-long

    2014-09-01

    Ultrasonic light scattering tomography system is a new imaging technique for breast function, which associates with diffused optical tomography (DOT) with ultrasonic examination. It locates breast neoplasm with ultrasonic examination and measures the total hemoglobin concentration inside the tumor with DOT photon emission to reflect the metabolic state of tumors and then comes to synthesis diagnostic index to judge benign and malignant tumors. This diagnosis method has significant affection on diagnosis of benign and malignant tumors at home and abroad. In the development of breast cancer, local tissue hypoxia leads to a large number of new blood vessels when the tumor grows faster than the rate of angiogenesis. A recent study found microvessel density (MVD), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and hypoxia-inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1α) play a major role in angiogenesis of breast cancer. This study analyses the relationship between breast cancer ultrasound synthesis diagnostic index (SDI) and the expression of MVD, VEGF and HIF-1α by testing the expression level of the breast cancer gene MVD, VEGF and HIF-1α. PMID:24659092

  8. Statistics Clinic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Foy, Millennia; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James

    2014-01-01

    Do you have elevated p-values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

  9. SEER Statistics

    Cancer.gov

    The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute works to provide information on cancer statistics in an effort to reduce the burden of cancer among the U.S. population.

  10. Cancer Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... cancer statistics across the world. U.S. Cancer Mortality Trends The best indicator of progress against cancer is ... the number of cancer survivors has increased. These trends show that progress is being made against the ...

  11. Statistical Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hermann, Claudine

    Statistical Physics bridges the properties of a macroscopic system and the microscopic behavior of its constituting particles, otherwise impossible due to the giant magnitude of Avogadro's number. Numerous systems of today's key technologies - such as semiconductors or lasers - are macroscopic quantum objects; only statistical physics allows for understanding their fundamentals. Therefore, this graduate text also focuses on particular applications such as the properties of electrons in solids with applications, and radiation thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect.

  12. Statistical framework for the utilization of simultaneous pupil plane and focal plane telemetry for exoplanet imaging I Accounting for aberrations in multiple planes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frazin, Richard A.

    2016-04-01

    A new generation of telescopes with mirror diameters of 20 m or more, called extremely large telescopes (ELTs) has the potential to provide unprecedented imaging and spectroscopy of exo-planetary systems, if the difficulties in achieving the extremely high dynamic range required to differentiate the planetary signal from the star can be overcome to a sufficient degree. Fully utilizing the potential of ELTs for exoplanet imaging will likely require simultaneous and self-consistent determination of both the planetary image and the unknown aberrations in multiple planes of the optical system, using statistical inference based on the wavefront sensor and science camera data streams. This approach promises to overcome the most important systematic errors inherent in the various schemes based on differential imaging, such as ADI and SDI. This paper is the first in a series on this subject, in which a formalism is established for the exoplanet imaging problem, setting the stage for the statistical inference methods to follow in the future. Every effort has been made to be rigorous and complete, so that validity of approximations to be made later can be assessed. Here, the polarimetric image is expressed in terms of aberrations in the various planes of a polarizing telescope with an adaptive optics system. Further, it is shown that current methods that utilize focal plane sensing to correct the speckle field, e.g., electric field conjugation, rely on the tacit assumption that aberrations on multiple optical surfaces can be represented as aberration on a single optical surface, ultimately limiting their potential effectiveness for ground-based astronomy.

  13. Multi-scale study of condensation in water jets using ellipsoidal-statistical Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook and molecular dynamics modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zheng; Borner, Arnaud; Levin, Deborah A.

    2014-06-01

    Homogeneous water condensation and ice formation in supersonic expansions to vacuum for stagnation pressures from 12 to 1000 mbar are studied using the particle-based Ellipsoidal-Statistical Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (ES-BGK) method. We find that when condensation starts to occur, at a stagnation pressure of 96 mbar, the increase in the degree of condensation causes an increase in the rotational temperature due to the latent heat of vaporization. The simulated rotational temperature profiles along the plume expansion agree well with measurements confirming the kinetic homogeneous condensation models and the method of simulation. Comparisons of the simulated gas and cluster number densities, cluster size for different stagnation pressures along the plume centerline were made and it is found that the cluster size increase linearly with respect to stagnation pressure, consistent with classical nucleation theory. The sensitivity of our results to cluster nucleation model and latent heat values based on bulk water, specific cluster size, or bulk ice are examined. In particular, the ES-BGK simulations are found to be too coarse-grained to provide information on the phase or structure of the clusters formed. For this reason, molecular dynamics simulations of water condensation in a one-dimensional free expansion to simulate the conditions in the core of a plume are performed. We find that the internal structure of the clusters formed depends on the stagnation temperature. A larger cluster of average size 21 was tracked down the expansion, and a calculation of its average internal temperature as well as a comparison of its radial distribution functions (RDFs) with values measured for solid amorphous ice clusters lead us to conclude that this cluster is in a solid-like rather than liquid form. In another molecular-dynamics simulation at a much lower stagnation temperature, a larger cluster of size 324 and internal temperature 200 K was extracted from an expansion plume and

  14. Dynamical localization in chaotic systems: spectral statistics and localization measure in the kicked rotator as a paradigm for time-dependent and time-independent systems.

    PubMed

    Manos, Thanos; Robnik, Marko

    2013-06-01

    We study the kicked rotator in the classically fully chaotic regime using Izrailev's N-dimensional model for various N≤4000, which in the limit N→∞ tends to the quantized kicked rotator. We do treat not only the case K=5, as studied previously, but also many different values of the classical kick parameter 5≤K≤35 and many different values of the quantum parameter kε[5,60]. We describe the features of dynamical localization of chaotic eigenstates as a paradigm for other both time-periodic and time-independent (autonomous) fully chaotic or/and mixed-type Hamilton systems. We generalize the scaling variable Λ=l(∞)/N to the case of anomalous diffusion in the classical phase space by deriving the localization length l(∞) for the case of generalized classical diffusion. We greatly improve the accuracy and statistical significance of the numerical calculations, giving rise to the following conclusions: (1) The level-spacing distribution of the eigenphases (or quasienergies) is very well described by the Brody distribution, systematically better than by other proposed models, for various Brody exponents β(BR). (2) We study the eigenfunctions of the Floquet operator and characterize their localization properties using the information entropy measure, which after normalization is given by β(loc) in the interval [0,1]. The level repulsion parameters β(BR) and β(loc) are almost linearly related, close to the identity line. (3) We show the existence of a scaling law between β(loc) and the relative localization length Λ, now including the regimes of anomalous diffusion. The above findings are important also for chaotic eigenstates in time-independent systems [Batistić and Robnik, J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 43, 215101 (2010); arXiv:1302.7174 (2013)], where the Brody distribution is confirmed to a very high degree of precision for dynamically localized chaotic eigenstates, even in the mixed-type systems (after separation of regular and chaotic eigenstates). PMID

  15. Comparison of monthly rainfall generated from dynamical and statistical downscaling methods: a case study of the Heihe River Basin in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Haifeng; Xiong, Zhe; Yan, Xiaodong; Dai, Xingang; Wei, Wenguang

    2016-04-01

    Monthly rainfall in the Heihe River Basin (HRB) was simulated by the dynamical downscaling model (DDM) and statistical downscaling model (SDM). The rainy-season rainfall in the HRB obtained by SDM and DDM was compared with the observed datasets (OBS) over the period of 2003-2012. The results showed the following: (1) Both methods reasonably reproduced the spatial pattern of rainy-season rainfall in the HRB with a high-level skill. Rainfall simulated by DDM was better than that by SDM in the upstream, with biases of -12.09 and -13.59 %, respectively; rainfall simulated by SDM was better than that by DDM in the midstream, with biases of 3.91 and -23.22 %, respectively; there was little difference between the rainfall simulated by SDM and DDM in the downstream, with biases of -10.89 and -9.50 %, respectively. (2) Both methods reasonably reproduced monthly rainfall in rainy season in different subregions. Rainfall simulated by DDM was better than that by SDM in May and July in the upstream, whereas rainfall simulated by SDM was closer to OBS except August in the midstream and except August and September in the downstream. (3) For multi-year mean rainy-season rainfall in different stations, there was a little difference between the rainfall simulated by DDM and SDM in Tuole station in the upstream, with biases of -13.16 and -12.40 %, respectively; rainfall in Zhangye station simulated by SDM was overestimated with bias of 14.02 %, and rainfall simulated by DDM was underestimated with bias of -14.60 %; rainfall in Dingxin station simulated by DDM was reproduced better than that by SDM, with biases of -19.34 and -32.75 %, respectively.

  16. Development of a two-dimensional zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. I - The parameterization of moist convection and its role in the general circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yao, Mao-Sung; Stone, Peter H.

    1987-01-01

    The moist convection parameterization used in the GISS 3-D GCM is adapted for use in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged statistical-dynamical model. Experiments with different versions of the parameterization show that its impact on the general circulation in the 2-D model does not parallel its impact in the 3-D model unless the effect of zonal variations is parameterized in the moist convection calculations. A parameterization of the variations in moist static energy is introduced in which the temperature variations are calculated from baroclinic stability theory, and the relative humidity is assumed to be constant. Inclusion of the zonal variations of moist static energy in the 2-D moist convection parameterization allows just a fraction of a latitude circle to be unstable and enhances the amount of deep convection. This leads to a 2-D simulation of the general circulation very similar to that in the 3-D model. The experiments show that the general circulation is sensitive to the parameterized amount of deep convection in the subsident branch of the Hadley cell. The more there is, the weaker are the Hadley cell circulations and the westerly jets. The experiments also confirm the effects of momentum mixing associated with moist convection found by earlier investigators and, in addition, show that the momentum mixing weakens the Ferrel cell. An experiment in which the moist convection was removed while the hydrological cycle was retained and the eddy forcing was held fixed shows that moist convection by itself stabilizes the tropics, reduces the Hadley circulation, and reduces the maximum speeds in the westerly jets.

  17. Statistical optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodman, J. W.

    This book is based on the thesis that some training in the area of statistical optics should be included as a standard part of any advanced optics curriculum. Random variables are discussed, taking into account definitions of probability and random variables, distribution functions and density functions, an extension to two or more random variables, statistical averages, transformations of random variables, sums of real random variables, Gaussian random variables, complex-valued random variables, and random phasor sums. Other subjects examined are related to random processes, some first-order properties of light waves, the coherence of optical waves, some problems involving high-order coherence, effects of partial coherence on imaging systems, imaging in the presence of randomly inhomogeneous media, and fundamental limits in photoelectric detection of light. Attention is given to deterministic versus statistical phenomena and models, the Fourier transform, and the fourth-order moment of the spectrum of a detected speckle image.

  18. Statistical Downscaling: Lessons Learned

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walton, D.; Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.

    2013-12-01

    In this study, we examine ways to improve statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) output. Why do we downscale GCM output? GCMs have low resolution, so they cannot represent local dynamics and topographic effects that cause spatial heterogeneity in the regional climate change signal. Statistical downscaling recovers fine-scale information by utilizing relationships between the large-scale and fine-scale signals to bridge this gap. In theory, the downscaled climate change signal is more credible and accurate than its GCM counterpart, but in practice, there may be little improvement. Here, we tackle the practical problems that arise in statistical downscaling, using temperature change over the Los Angeles region as a test case. This region is an ideal place to apply downscaling since its complex topography and shoreline are poorly simulated by GCMs. By comparing two popular statistical downscaling methods and one dynamical downscaling method, we identify issues with statistically downscaled climate change signals and develop ways to fix them. We focus on scale mismatch, domain of influence, and other problems - many of which users may be unaware of - and discuss practical solutions.

  19. Statistical Fun

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Catley, Alan

    2007-01-01

    Following the announcement last year that there will be no more math coursework assessment at General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE), teachers will in the future be able to devote more time to preparing learners for formal examinations. One of the key things that the author has learned when teaching statistics is that it makes for far…

  20. Statistical survey of pitch angle distributions in core (0-50 eV) ions from Dynamics Explorer 1: Outflow in the auroral zone, polar cap, and cusp

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giles, B. L.; Chappell, C. R.; Moore, T. E.; Comfort, R. H.; Waite, J. H., Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Core (0-50 eV) ion pitch angle measurements from the retarding ion mass spectrometer on Dynamics Explorer 1 are examined with respect to magnetic disturbance, invariant latitude, magnetic local time, and altitude for ions H(+), He(+), O(+), M/Z = 2 (D(+) or He(++)), and O(++). Included are outflow events in the auroral zone, polar cap, and cusp, separated into altitude regions below and above 3 R(sub E). In addition to the customary division into beam, conic, and upwelling distributions, the high-latitude observations fall into three categories corresponding to ion bulk speeds that are (1) less than, (2) comparable to, or (3) faster than that of the spacecraft. This separation, along with the altitude partition, serves to identify conditions under which ionospheric source ions are gravita- tionally bound and when they are more energetic and able to escape to the outer magnetosphere. Features of the cleft ion fountain inferred from single event studies are clearly identifiable in the statistical results. In addition, it is found that the dayside pre-noon cleft is a dayside afternoon cleft, or auroral zone, becomes an additional source for increased activity. The auroral oval as a whole appears to be a steady source of escape velocity H(+), a steady source of escape velocity He(+) ions for the dusk sector, and a source of escape velocity heavy ions for dusk local times primarily during increased activity. The polar cap above the auroral zone is a consistent source of low-energy ions, although only the lighter mass particles appear to have sufficient velocity, on average, to escape to higher altitudes. The observations support two concepts for outflow: (1) The cleft ion fountain consists of ionospheric plasma of 1-20 eV energy streaming upward into the magnetosphere where high-latitude convection electric fields cause poleward dispersion. (2) The auroral ion fountain involves field-aligned beams which flow out along auroral latitude field lines; and, in addition, for

  1. Statistical Physics of Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kardar, Mehran

    2006-06-01

    While many scientists are familiar with fractals, fewer are familiar with the concepts of scale-invariance and universality which underly the ubiquity of their shapes. These properties may emerge from the collective behaviour of simple fundamental constituents, and are studied using statistical field theories. Based on lectures for a course in statistical mechanics taught by Professor Kardar at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, this textbook demonstrates how such theories are formulated and studied. Perturbation theory, exact solutions, renormalization groups, and other tools are employed to demonstrate the emergence of scale invariance and universality, and the non-equilibrium dynamics of interfaces and directed paths in random media are discussed. Ideal for advanced graduate courses in statistical physics, it contains an integrated set of problems, with solutions to selected problems at the end of the book. A complete set of solutions is available to lecturers on a password protected website at www.cambridge.org/9780521873413. Based on lecture notes from a course on Statistical Mechanics taught by the author at MIT Contains 65 exercises, with solutions to selected problems Features a thorough introduction to the methods of Statistical Field theory Ideal for graduate courses in Statistical Physics

  2. Statistical Optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodman, Joseph W.

    2000-07-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson The Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences Robert G. Bartle The Elements of Integration and Lebesgue Measure George E. P. Box & Norman R. Draper Evolutionary Operation: A Statistical Method for Process Improvement George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis R. W. Carter Finite Groups of Lie Type: Conjugacy Classes and Complex Characters R. W. Carter Simple Groups of Lie Type William G. Cochran & Gertrude M. Cox Experimental Designs, Second Edition Richard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume I RIchard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume II Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume II D. R. Cox Planning of Experiments Harold S. M. Coxeter Introduction to Geometry, Second Edition Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Representation Theory of Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume I Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume II Cuthbert Daniel Fitting Equations to Data: Computer Analysis of Multifactor Data, Second Edition Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume I Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume 2 W. Edwards Deming Sample Design in Business Research

  3. [Statistical materials].

    PubMed

    1986-01-01

    Official population data for the USSR are presented for 1985 and 1986. Part 1 (pp. 65-72) contains data on capitals of union republics and cities with over one million inhabitants, including population estimates for 1986 and vital statistics for 1985. Part 2 (p. 72) presents population estimates by sex and union republic, 1986. Part 3 (pp. 73-6) presents data on population growth, including birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1984-1985; seasonal distribution of births and deaths; birth order; age-specific birth rates in urban and rural areas and by union republic; marriages; age at marriage; and divorces. PMID:12178831

  4. Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ransom, Barbara

    1984-04-01

    Dynamics!” she said, as she buried her head deep in a book on tectonics. “Must be the key to explain what we see the ignorance of which seems to be chronic.”Convection below, then density flow and phase changes are not withstanding; Thermal gradient change and compositional range are things our minds should be commanding.

  5. Statistical evaluation of the significance of the influence of abrupt changes in solar activity on the dynamics of the epidemic process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druzhinin, I. P.; Khamyanova, N. V.; Yagodinskiy, V. N.

    1974-01-01

    Statistical evaluations of the significance of the relationship of abrupt changes in solar activity and discontinuities in the multi-year pattern of an epidemic process are reported. They reliably (with probability of more than 99.9%) show the real nature of this relationship and its great specific weight (about half) in the formation of discontinuities in the multi-year pattern of the processes in question.

  6. [Results of statistical analysis of the dynamics of ionizing radiation dose fields in the service module of the International Space Station in 2000-2012].

    PubMed

    Mitrikas, V G

    2014-01-01

    The on-going 24th solar cycle (SC) is distinguished from the previous ones by low activity. On the contrary, levels of proton fluxes from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are high, which increases the proton flow striking the Earth's radiation belts (ERB). Therefore, at present the absorbed dose from ERB protons should be calculated with consideration of the tangible increase of protons intensity built into the model descriptions based on experimental measurements during the minimum between cycles 19 and 20, and the cycle 21 maximum. The absorbed dose from GCR and ERB protons copies galactic protons dynamics, while the ERB electrons dose copies SC dynamics. The major factors that determine the absorbed dose value are SC phase, ISS orbital altitude and shielding of the dosimeter readings of which are used in analysis. The paper presents the results of dynamic analysis of absorbed doses measured by a variety of dosimeters, namely, R-16 (2 ionization chambers), DB8-1, DB8-2, DB8-3, DB8-4 as a function of ISS orbit altitude and SC phase. The existence of annual variation in the absorbed dose dynamics has been confirmed; several additional variations with the periods of 17 and 52 months have been detected. Modulation of absorbed dose variations by the SC and GCR amplitudes has been demonstrated. PMID:25035897

  7. Statistical characterization of dislocation ensembles

    SciTech Connect

    El-Azab, A; Deng, J; Tang, M

    2006-05-17

    We outline a method to study the spatial and orientation statistics of dynamical dislocation systems by modeling the dislocations as a stochastic fiber process. Statistical measures have been introduced for the density, velocity, and flux of dislocations, and the connection between these measures and the dislocation state and plastic distortion rate in the crystal is explained. A dislocation dynamics simulation model has been used to extract numerical data to study the evolution of these statistical measures numerically in a body-centered cubic crystal under deformation. The orientation distribution of the dislocation density, velocity and dislocation flux, as well as the dislocation correlations have been computed. The importance of the statistical measures introduced here in building continuum models of dislocation systems is highlighted.

  8. Three-dimensional electromagnetic strong turbulence: Dependence of the statistics and dynamics of strong turbulence on the electron to ion temperature ratio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, D. B.; Cairns, Iver H.; Skjaeraasen, O.; Robinson, P. A.

    2012-02-01

    The temperature ratio Ti/Te of ions to electrons affects both the ion-damping rate and the ion-acoustic speed in plasmas. The effects of changing the ion-damping rate and ion-acoustic speed are investigated for electrostatic strong turbulence and electromagnetic strong turbulence in three dimensions. When ion damping is strong, density wells relax in place and act as nucleation sites for the formation of new wave packets. In this case, the density perturbations are primarily density wells supported by the ponderomotive force. For weak ion damping, corresponding to low Ti/Te, ion-acoustic waves are launched radially outwards when wave packets dissipate at burnout, thereby increasing the level of density perturbations in the system and thus raising the level of scattering of Langmuir waves off density perturbations. Density wells no longer relax in place so renucleation at recent collapse sites no longer occurs, instead wave packets form in background low density regions, such as superpositions of troughs of propagating ion-acoustic waves. This transition is found to occur at Ti/Te ≈ 0.1. The change in behavior with Ti/Te is shown to change the bulk statistical properties, scaling behavior, spectra, and field statistics of strong turbulence. For Ti/Te>rsim0.1, the electrostatic results approach the predictions of the two-component model of Robinson and Newman, and good agreement is found for Ti/Te>rsim0.15.

  9. Cosmetic Plastic Surgery Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    2014 Cosmetic Plastic Surgery Statistics Cosmetic Procedure Trends 2014 Plastic Surgery Statistics Report Please credit the AMERICAN SOCIETY OF PLASTIC SURGEONS when citing statistical data or using ...

  10. Monitoring the sandstorm during spring season 2002 and desertification in northern China using the SSM/I data and Getis statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Yaqiu; Yan, Fenghua

    2003-04-01

    A massive sandstorm has enveloped most northern China during the spring season 2002. Monitoring the evolution of sandstorm and desertification has become one of most serious problems for China's environment. Since 1989, one of the most advanced and operational passive microwave sensors is the DMSP SSM/I (special sensor microwave imager) operated at seven channels (19, 37, 85GHz with vertical and horizontal polarization and 22GHz with vertical polarization only). In the paper, the sandstorm and desertification indexes, SDI and DI, are derived from the radiative transfer equation, and are employed with multi-channel measurements of the DMSP SSM/I for monitoring the sandstorm and desertification in Northern China. Some SSM/I data in 1997 and 2001 are employed. The algorithm of the Getis statistics is developed to categorize the spatial correlation and its evolution during these days. It is demonstrated that the SSM/I indexes, SDI and DI, and its Getis statistics are well applicable for monitoring the sandstorm and desertification.

  11. Estimability and simple dynamical analyses of range (range-rate range-difference) observations to artificial satellites. [laser range observations to LAGEOS using non-Bayesian statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vangelder, B. H. W.

    1978-01-01

    Non-Bayesian statistics were used in simulation studies centered around laser range observations to LAGEOS. The capabilities of satellite laser ranging especially in connection with relative station positioning are evaluated. The satellite measurement system under investigation may fall short in precise determinations of the earth's orientation (precession and nutation) and earth's rotation as opposed to systems as very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and lunar laser ranging (LLR). Relative station positioning, determination of (differential) polar motion, positioning of stations with respect to the earth's center of mass and determination of the earth's gravity field should be easily realized by satellite laser ranging (SLR). The last two features should be considered as best (or solely) determinable by SLR in contrast to VLBI and LLR.

  12. Tri-directional shaking table tests of vibration sensitive equipment with static dynamics interchangeable-ball pendulum system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, C. S.; Lin, Yung-Chang; Chen, Wen-Shin; Su, H. C.

    2010-03-01

    Recently, the high-tech industry has become a key industry for economic development in many countries. However, vibration sensitive equipment located in these industrial buildings is vulnerable during earthquakes, which may cause huge economic loss. In this study, an innovative isolator for safeguarding the vibration sensitive equipment, namely, the static dynamics interchangeable-ball pendulum system (SDI-BPS) is proposed and investigated to examine its protective capability for the vibration sensitive equipment during earthquakes through a series of tri-directional shaking table tests. The experimental results illustrate that the SDI-BPS isolator can provide significant damping to rolling types of base isolation systems for reducing the bearing displacement and size, and avoid the stress concentration, which can cause damage or scratches on the rolling surface of the isolator, to prolong its life span of service. The SDI-BPS isolator also provides excellent capability in protecting the vibration sensitive equipment and exhibits a stable behavior under long terms of service loadings and earthquakes.

  13. Delayed expression of hpS2 and prolonged expression of CIP1/WAF1/SDI1 in human tumour cells irradiated with X-rays, fission neutrons or 1 GeV/nucleon Fe ions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balcer-Kubiczek, E. K.; Zhang, X. F.; Harrison, G. H.; Zhou, X. J.; Vigneulle, R. M.; Ove, R.; McCready, W. A.; Xu, J. F.

    1999-01-01

    PURPOSE: Differences in gene expression underlie the phenotypic differences between irradiated and unirradiated cells. The goal was to identify late-transcribed genes following irradiations differing in quality, and to determine the RBE of 1 GeV/n Fe ions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clonogenic assay was used to determine the RBE of Fe ions. Differential hybridization to cDNA target clones was used to detect differences in expression of corresponding genes in mRNA samples isolated from MCF7 cells irradiated with iso-survival doses of Fe ions (0 or 2.5 Gy) or fission neutrons (0 or 1.2 Gy) 7 days earlier. Northern analysis was used to confirm differential expression of cDNA-specific mRNA and to examine expression kinetics up to 2 weeks after irradiation. RESULTS: Fe ion RBE values were between 2.2 and 2.6 in the lines examined. Two of 17 differentially expressed cDNA clones were characterized. hpS2 mRNA was elevated from 1 to 14 days after irradiation, whereas CIP1/WAF1/SDI1 remained elevated from 3 h to 14 days after irradiation. Induction of hpS2 mRNA by irradiation was independent of p53, whereas induction of CIP1/WAF1/SDI1 was observed only in wild-type p53 lines. CONCLUSIONS: A set of coordinately regulated genes, some of which are independent of p53, is associated with change in gene expression during the first 2 weeks post-irradiation.

  14. Determination of snow avalanche return periods using a tree-ring based reconstruction in the French Alps: cross validation with the predictions of a statistical-dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schläppy, Romain; Eckert, Nicolas; Jomelli, Vincent; Grancher, Delphine; Brunstein, Daniel; Stoffel, Markus; Naaim, Mohamed

    2013-04-01

    Documenting past avalanche activity represents an indispensable step in avalanche hazard assessment. Nevertheless, (i) archival records of past avalanche events do not normally yield data with satisfying spatial and temporal resolution and (ii) precision concerning runout distance is generally poorly defined. In addition, historic documentation is most often (iii) biased toward events that caused damage to structure or loss of life on the one hand and (iv) undersampled in unpopulated areas on the other hand. On forested paths dendrogeomorphology has been demonstrated to represent a powerful tool to reconstruct past activity of avalanches with annual resolution and for periods covering the past decades to centuries. This method is based on the fact that living trees may be affected by snow avalanches during their flow and deposition phases. Affected trees will react upon these disturbances with a certain growth response. An analysis of the responses recorded in tree rings coupled with an evaluation of the position of reacting trees within the path allows the dendrogeomorphic expert to identify past snow avalanche events and deduced their minimum runout distance. The objective of the work presented here is firstly to dendrochronogically -reconstruct snow avalanche activity in the Château Jouan path located near Montgenèvre in the French Alps. Minimal runout distances are then determined for each reconstructed event by considering the point of further reach along the topographic profile. Related empirical return intervals are evaluated, combining the extent of each event with the average local frequency of the dendrological record. In a second step, the runout distance distribution derived from dendrochronological reconstruction is compared to the one derived from historical archives and to high return period avalanches predicted by an up-to-date locally calibrated statistical-numerical model. It appears that dendrochronological reconstructions correspond mostly to

  15. A statistical-dynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassou, Christophe; Minvielle, Marie; Terray, Laurent; Périgaud, Claire

    2011-01-01

    The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height and 1,000 hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50 years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our

  16. A new'' approach to the quantitative statistical dynamics of plasma turbulence: The optimum theory of rigorous bounds on steady-state transport

    SciTech Connect

    Krommes, J.A. . Plasma Physics Lab.); Kim, Chang-Bae . Inst. for Fusion Studies)

    1990-06-01

    The fundamental problem in the theory of turbulent transport is to find the flux {Gamma} of a quantity such as heat. Methods based on statistical closures are mired in conceptual controversies and practical difficulties. However, it is possible to bound {Gamma} by employing constraints derived rigorously from the equations of motion. Brief reviews of the general theory and its application to passive advection are given. Then, a detailed application is made to anomalous resistivity generated by self-consistent turbulence in a reversed-field pinch. A nonlinear variational principle for an upper bound on the turbulence electromotive force for fixed current is formulated from the magnetohydrodynamic equations in cylindrical geometry. Numerical solution of a case constrained solely by energy balance leads to a reasonable bound and nonlinear eigenfunctions that share intriguing features with experimental data: the dominant mode numbers appear to be correct, and field reversal is predicted at reasonable values of the pinch parameter. Although open questions remain upon considering all bounding calculations to date one can conclude, remarkably, that global energy balance constrains transport sufficiently so that bounds derived therefrom are not unreasonable and that bounding calculations are feasible even for involved practical problems. The potential of the method has hardly been tapped; it provides a fertile area for future research. 29 refs.

  17. Statistical study of the night-time F-layer dynamics at the magnetic equator in West Africa during the solar minimum period 1995-1997

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanoh, K. S.; Adohi, B. J.-P.; Coulibaly, I. S.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Kobea, A. T.; Assamoi, P.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we report on the night-time equatorial F-layer height behaviour at Korhogo (9.2° N, 5° W; 2.4° S dip lat), Ivory Coast, in the West African sector during the solar minimum period 1995-1997. The data were collected from quarter-hourly ionograms of an Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS) 42-type vertical sounder. The main focus of this work was to study the seasonal changes in the F-layer height and to clarify the equinox transition process recently evidenced at Korhogo during 1995, the year of declining solar flux activity. The F-layer height was found to vary strongly with time, with up to three main phases. The night-to-night variability of these morphological phases was then analysed. The early post-sunset slow rise, commonly associated with rapid chemical recombination processes in the bottom part of the F layer, remained featureless and was observed regardless of the date. By contrast, the following event, either presented like the post-sunset height peak associated with the evening E × B drift, or was delayed to the midnight sector, thus involving another mechanism. The statistical analysis of the occurrence of these events throughout the solar minimum period 1995-1997 revealed two main F-layer height patterns, each characteristic of a specific season. The one with the post-sunset height peak was associated with the northern winter period, whereas the other, with the midnight height peak, characterized the northern summer period. The transition process from one pattern to the other took place during the equinox periods and was found to last only a few weeks. We discuss these results in the light of earlier works.

  18. The application of statistical mechanics on the study of glassy behaviors in transportation networks and dynamics in models of financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeung, Chi Ho

    In this thesis, we study two interdisciplinary problems in the framework of statistical physics, which show the broad applicability of physics on problems with various origins. The first problem corresponds to an optimization problem in allocating resources on random regular networks. Frustrations arise from competition for resources. When the initial resources are uniform, different regimes with discrete fractions of satisfied nodes are observed, resembling the Devil's staircase. We apply the spin glass theory in analyses and demonstrate how functional recursions are converted to simple recursions of probabilities. Equilibrium properties such as the average energy and the fraction of free nodes are derived. When the initial resources are bimodally distributed, increases in the fraction of rich nodes induce a glassy transition, entering a glassy phase described by the existence of multiple metastable states, in which we employ the replica symmetry breaking ansatz for analysis. The second problem corresponds to the study of multi-agent systems modeling financial markets. Agents in the system trade among themselves, and self-organize to produce macroscopic trading behaviors resembling the real financial markets. These behaviors include the arbitraging activities, the setting up and the following of price trends. A phase diagram of these behaviors is obtained, as a function of the sensitivity of price and the market impact factor. We finally test the applicability of the models with real financial data including the Hang Seng Index, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A substantial fraction of agents gains faster than the inflation rate of the indices, suggesting the possibility of using multi-agent systems as a tool for real trading.

  19. Statistical properties of linear-hyperbranched graft copolymers prepared via "hypergrafting" of ABm monomers from linear B-functional core chains: A molecular dynamics simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rabbel, Hauke; Frey, Holger; Schmid, Friederike

    2015-12-01

    The reaction of ABm monomers (m = 2, 3) with a multifunctional Bf-type polymer chain ("hypergrafting") is studied by coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. The ABm monomers are hypergrafted using the slow monomer addition strategy. Fully dendronized, i.e., perfectly branched polymers are also simulated for comparison. The degree of branching of the molecules obtained with the "hypergrafting" process critically depends on the rate with which monomers attach to inner monomers compared to terminal monomers. This ratio is more favorable if the ABm monomers have lower reactivity, since the free monomers then have time to diffuse inside the chain. Configurational chain properties are also determined, showing that the stretching of the polymer backbone as a consequence of the "hypergrafting" procedure is much less pronounced than for perfectly dendronized chains. Furthermore, we analyze the scaling of various quantities with molecular weight M for large M (M > 100). The Wiener index scales as M2.3, which is intermediate between linear chains (M3) and perfectly branched polymers (M2ln(M)). The polymer size, characterized by the radius of gyration Rg or the hydrodynamic radius Rh, is found to scale as Rg,h ∝ Mν with ν ≈ 0.38, which lies between the exponent of diffusion limited aggregation (ν = 0.4) and the mean-field exponent predicted by Konkolewicz and co-workers [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 238301 (2007)] (ν = 0.33).

  20. Statistical properties of linear-hyperbranched graft copolymers prepared via "hypergrafting" of AB(m) monomers from linear B-functional core chains: A molecular dynamics simulation.

    PubMed

    Rabbel, Hauke; Frey, Holger; Schmid, Friederike

    2015-12-28

    The reaction of ABm monomers (m = 2, 3) with a multifunctional Bf-type polymer chain ("hypergrafting") is studied by coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. The ABm monomers are hypergrafted using the slow monomer addition strategy. Fully dendronized, i.e., perfectly branched polymers are also simulated for comparison. The degree of branching of the molecules obtained with the "hypergrafting" process critically depends on the rate with which monomers attach to inner monomers compared to terminal monomers. This ratio is more favorable if the ABm monomers have lower reactivity, since the free monomers then have time to diffuse inside the chain. Configurational chain properties are also determined, showing that the stretching of the polymer backbone as a consequence of the "hypergrafting" procedure is much less pronounced than for perfectly dendronized chains. Furthermore, we analyze the scaling of various quantities with molecular weight M for large M (M > 100). The Wiener index scales as M(2.3), which is intermediate between linear chains (M(3)) and perfectly branched polymers (M(2)ln(M)). The polymer size, characterized by the radius of gyration Rg or the hydrodynamic radius Rh, is found to scale as Rg,h ∝ M(ν) with ν ≈ 0.38, which lies between the exponent of diffusion limited aggregation (ν = 0.4) and the mean-field exponent predicted by Konkolewicz and co-workers [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 238301 (2007)] (ν = 0.33). PMID:26723610

  1. Dynamic modelling of spur gear pair and application of empirical mode decomposition-based statistical analysis for early detection of localized tooth defect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parey, A.; El Badaoui, M.; Guillet, F.; Tandon, N.

    2006-06-01

    Gears are one of the most common and important machine components in many advanced machines. An improved understanding of vibration signal is required for the early detection of incipient gear failure to achieve high reliability. This paper mainly consists of two parts: in the first part, a 6-degree-of-freedom gear dynamic model including localized tooth defect has been developed. The model consists of a spur gear pair, two shafts, two inertias representing load and prime mover and bearings. The model incorporates the effects of time-varying mesh stiffness and damping, backlash, excitation due to gear errors and profile modifications. The second part consists of signal processing of simulated and experimental signals. Empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is a method of breaking down a signal without leaving a time domain. The process is useful for analysing non-stationary and nonlinear signals. EMD decomposes a signal into some individual, nearly monocomponent signals, named as intrinsic mode function (IMF). Crest factor and kurtosis have been calculated of these IMFs. EMD pre-processed kurtosis and crest factor give early detection of pitting as compared to raw signal.

  2. Use of remote sensing, geographic information systems, and spatial statistics to assess spatio-temporal population dynamics of Heterodera glycines and soybean yield quantity and quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira, Antonio Jose De Araujo

    Soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., is an important source of oil and protein worldwide, and soybean cyst nematode (SCN), Heterodera glycines, is among the most important yield-limiting factors in soybean production worldwide. Early detection of SCN is difficult because soybean plants infected by SCN often do not exhibit visible symptoms. It was hypothesized, however, that reflectance data obtained by remote sensing from soybean canopies may be used to detect plant stress caused by SCN infection. Moreover, reflectance measurements may be related to soybean growth and yield. Two field experiments were conducted from 2000 to 2002 to study the relationships among reflectance data, quantity and quality of soybean yield, and SCN population densities. The best relationships between reflectance and the quantity of soybean grain yield occurred when reflectance data were obtained late August to early September. Similarly, reflectance was best related to seed oil and seed protein content and seed size when measured during late August/early September. Grain quality-reflectance relationships varied spatially and temporally. Reflectance measured early or late in the season had the best relationships with SCN population densities measured at planting. Soil properties likely affected reflectance measurements obtained at the beginning of the season and somehow may have been related to SCN population densities at planting. Reflectance data obtained at the end of the growing season likely was affected by early senescence of SCN-infected soybeans. Spatio-temporal aspects of SCN population densities in both experiments were assessed using spatial statistics and regression analyses. In the 2000 and 2001 growing seasons, spring-to-fall changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at planting for both experiments. However, within-season changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at harvest for both experiments in

  3. On the physical links between the dynamics of the Izu Islands 2000 dike intrusions and the statistics of the induced seismicity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passarelli, L.; Rivalta, E.; Maccaferri, F.; Aoki, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of earthquakes has been widely studied in a variety of settings, from global to laboratory scale. The b-value of the FMD is in general close to one on a global scale; however, on a regional scale it is found to deviate significantly from this behavior. Spatial variations of the b-value have been evidenced around major fault systems, in subducting slabs as well as in volcanic and geothermal areas. Although in tectonics environments, such as fault systems, the b-value varies only spatially, generally in association with different stress levels, in volcanic areas b-value anomalies occur both spatially and temporally and are generally associated to the presence of fluids or large rock heterogeneities within the crust. The physical and mechanical interpretation of such anomalies is still a difficult task, in particular for areas where multiple seismic sources are in play, or for volcanic areas, where multiple physical processes influence earthquake occurrence. In this study we focus on the seismic swarm which accompanied the well-studied 2000 Izu islands (Japan) dike intrusion in order to link the intrusion dynamics to temporal and spatial variations of the b-value of the FMD. We first calculate the b-value anomalies relative to different areas in the different phases of the intrusion and then compare them with the stress levels we infer from the published inversions of time-dependent dike-induced deformation. Then, we study the evolution of the maximum expected magnitude in this area that experienced in a few weeks more than five earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6. Finally, we calculate the effect of the dike-induced stress on the observed seismicity in the region, highlighting the areas that experienced an enhancement in seismicity and the area where the seismicity is inhibited.

  4. Predict! Teaching Statistics Using Informational Statistical Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Makar, Katie

    2013-01-01

    Statistics is one of the most widely used topics for everyday life in the school mathematics curriculum. Unfortunately, the statistics taught in schools focuses on calculations and procedures before students have a chance to see it as a useful and powerful tool. Researchers have found that a dominant view of statistics is as an assortment of tools…

  5. Statistics Poker: Reinforcing Basic Statistical Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leech, Nancy L.

    2008-01-01

    Learning basic statistical concepts does not need to be tedious or dry; it can be fun and interesting through cooperative learning in the small-group activity of Statistics Poker. This article describes a teaching approach for reinforcing basic statistical concepts that can help students who have high anxiety and makes learning and reinforcing…

  6. Statistical physics ""Beyond equilibrium

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    The scientific challenges of the 21st century will increasingly involve competing interactions, geometric frustration, spatial and temporal intrinsic inhomogeneity, nanoscale structures, and interactions spanning many scales. We will focus on a broad class of emerging problems that will require new tools in non-equilibrium statistical physics and that will find application in new material functionality, in predicting complex spatial dynamics, and in understanding novel states of matter. Our work will encompass materials under extreme conditions involving elastic/plastic deformation, competing interactions, intrinsic inhomogeneity, frustration in condensed matter systems, scaling phenomena in disordered materials from glasses to granular matter, quantum chemistry applied to nano-scale materials, soft-matter materials, and spatio-temporal properties of both ordinary and complex fluids.

  7. Statistical Thermodynamics of Biomembranes

    PubMed Central

    Devireddy, Ram V.

    2010-01-01

    An overview of the major issues involved in the statistical thermodynamic treatment of phospholipid membranes at the atomistic level is summarized: thermodynamic ensembles, initial configuration (or the physical system being modeled), force field representation as well as the representation of long-range interactions. This is followed by a description of the various ways that the simulated ensembles can be analyzed: area of the lipid, mass density profiles, radial distribution functions (RDFs), water orientation profile, Deuteurium order parameter, free energy profiles and void (pore) formation; with particular focus on the results obtained from our recent molecular dynamic (MD) simulations of phospholipids interacting with dimethylsulfoxide (Me2SO), a commonly used cryoprotective agent (CPA). PMID:19460363

  8. Tsallis statistics and neurodegenerative disorders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iliopoulos, Aggelos C.; Tsolaki, Magdalini; Aifantis, Elias C.

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we perform statistical analysis of time series deriving from four neurodegenerative disorders, namely epilepsy, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Parkinson's disease (PD), Huntington's disease (HD). The time series are concerned with electroencephalograms (EEGs) of healthy and epileptic states, as well as gait dynamics (in particular stride intervals) of the ALS, PD and HDs. We study data concerning one subject for each neurodegenerative disorder and one healthy control. The analysis is based on Tsallis non-extensive statistical mechanics and in particular on the estimation of Tsallis q-triplet, namely {qstat, qsen, qrel}. The deviation of Tsallis q-triplet from unity indicates non-Gaussian statistics and long-range dependencies for all time series considered. In addition, the results reveal the efficiency of Tsallis statistics in capturing differences in brain dynamics between healthy and epileptic states, as well as differences between ALS, PD, HDs from healthy control subjects. The results indicate that estimations of Tsallis q-indices could be used as possible biomarkers, along with others, for improving classification and prediction of epileptic seizures, as well as for studying the gait complex dynamics of various diseases providing new insights into severity, medications and fall risk, improving therapeutic interventions.

  9. Statistical dependency in visual scanning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellis, Stephen R.; Stark, Lawrence

    1986-01-01

    A method to identify statistical dependencies in the positions of eye fixations is developed and applied to eye movement data from subjects who viewed dynamic displays of air traffic and judged future relative position of aircraft. Analysis of approximately 23,000 fixations on points of interest on the display identified statistical dependencies in scanning that were independent of the physical placement of the points of interest. Identification of these dependencies is inconsistent with random-sampling-based theories used to model visual search and information seeking.

  10. Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Tumor > Neuroendocrine Tumor - Statistics Request Permissions Neuroendocrine Tumor - Statistics Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 04/ ... the body. It is important to remember that statistics on how many people survive this type of ...

  11. Statistical Reference Datasets

    National Institute of Standards and Technology Data Gateway

    Statistical Reference Datasets (Web, free access)   The Statistical Reference Datasets is also supported by the Standard Reference Data Program. The purpose of this project is to improve the accuracy of statistical software by providing reference datasets with certified computational results that enable the objective evaluation of statistical software.

  12. Statistical dynamics of early river networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xu-Ming; Wang, Peng; Zhang, Ping; Hao, Rui; Huo, Jie

    2012-10-01

    Based on local erosion rule and fluctuations in rainfall, geology and parameters of a river channel, a generalized Langevin equation is proposed to describe the random prolongation of a river channel. This equation is transformed into the Fokker-Plank equation to follow the early evolution of a river network and the variation of probability distribution of channel lengths. The general solution of the equation is in the product form of two terms. One term is in power form and the other is in exponent form. This distribution shows a complete history of a river network evolving from its infancy to “adulthood”). The infancy is characterized by the Gaussian distribution of the channel lengths, while the adulthood is marked by a power law distribution of the channel lengths. The variation of the distribution from the Gaussian to the power law displays a gradual developing progress of the river network. The distribution of basin areas is obtained by means of Hack's law. These provide us with new understandings towards river networks.

  13. Statistical Ensemble of Large Eddy Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carati, Daniele; Rogers, Michael M.; Wray, Alan A.; Mansour, Nagi N. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A statistical ensemble of large eddy simulations (LES) is run simultaneously for the same flow. The information provided by the different large scale velocity fields is used to propose an ensemble averaged version of the dynamic model. This produces local model parameters that only depend on the statistical properties of the flow. An important property of the ensemble averaged dynamic procedure is that it does not require any spatial averaging and can thus be used in fully inhomogeneous flows. Also, the ensemble of LES's provides statistics of the large scale velocity that can be used for building new models for the subgrid-scale stress tensor. The ensemble averaged dynamic procedure has been implemented with various models for three flows: decaying isotropic turbulence, forced isotropic turbulence, and the time developing plane wake. It is found that the results are almost independent of the number of LES's in the statistical ensemble provided that the ensemble contains at least 16 realizations.

  14. Statistical properties of cosmological billiards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damour, Thibault; Lecian, Orchidea Maria

    2011-02-01

    Belinski, Khalatnikov, and Lifshitz pioneered the study of the statistical properties of the never-ending oscillatory behavior (among successive Kasner epochs) of the geometry near a spacelike singularity. We show how the use of a “cosmological billiard” description allows one to refine and deepen the understanding of these statistical properties. Contrary to previous treatments, we do not quotient the dynamics by its discrete symmetry group (of order 6), thereby uncovering new phenomena, such as correlations between the successive billiard corners in which the oscillations take place. Starting from the general integral invariants of Hamiltonian systems, we show how to construct invariant measures for various projections of the cosmological-billiard dynamics. In particular, we exhibit, for the first time, a (non-normalizable) invariant measure on the “Kasner circle” which parametrizes the exponents of successive Kasner epochs. Finally, we discuss the relation between: (i) the unquotiented dynamics of the Bianchi-IX (a, b, c or mixmaster) model; (ii) its quotienting by the group of permutations of (a, b, c); and (iii) the billiard dynamics that arose in recent studies suggesting the hidden presence of Kac-Moody symmetries in cosmological billiards.

  15. High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of ERA-Interim Using the WRF Regional Climate Model for the Area of Poland. Part 1: Model Configuration and Statistical Evaluation for the 1981-2010 Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kryza, Maciej; Wałaszek, Kinga; Ojrzyńska, Hanna; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Werner, Małgorzata; Dore, Anthony J.

    2016-03-01

    In this work, we present the results of high-resolution dynamical downscaling of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, for the area of Poland, with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model is configured using three nested domains, with spatial resolution of 45 km × 45 km, 15 km × 15 km and 5 km × 5 km. The ERA-Interim database is used for boundary conditions. The results are evaluated by comparison with station measurements for the period 1981-2010. The model is capable of reproducing the main climatological features of the study area. The results are in very close agreement with the measurements, especially for the air temperature. For all four meteorological variables, the model performance captures seasonal and daily cycles. For the air temperature and winter season, the model underestimates the measurements. For summer, the model shows higher values, compared with the measurements. The opposite is the case for relative humidity. There is a strong diurnal pattern in mean error, which changes seasonally. The agreement with the measurements is worse for the seashore and mountain areas, which suggests that the 5 km × 5 km grid might still have an insufficient spatial resolution. There is no statistically significant temporal trend in the model performance. The larger year-to-year changes in the model performance, e.g. for the years 1982 and 2010 for the air temperature should therefore be linked with the natural variability of meteorological conditions.

  16. The standard map: From Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics to Tsallis statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tirnakli, Ugur; Borges, Ernesto P.

    2016-03-01

    As well known, Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics is the correct way of thermostatistically approaching ergodic systems. On the other hand, nontrivial ergodicity breakdown and strong correlations typically drag the system into out-of-equilibrium states where Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics fails. For a wide class of such systems, it has been shown in recent years that the correct approach is to use Tsallis statistics instead. Here we show how the dynamics of the paradigmatic conservative (area-preserving) stan-dard map exhibits, in an exceptionally clear manner, the crossing from one statistics to the other. Our results unambiguously illustrate the domains of validity of both Boltzmann-Gibbs and Tsallis statistical distributions. Since various important physical systems from particle confinement in magnetic traps to autoionization of molecular Rydberg states, through particle dynamics in accelerators and comet dynamics, can be reduced to the standard map, our results are expected to enlighten and enable an improved interpretation of diverse experimental and observational results.

  17. Uterine Cancer Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Research AMIGAS Fighting Cervical Cancer Worldwide Stay Informed Statistics for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal ( ... Skin Vaginal and Vulvar Cancer Home Uterine Cancer Statistics Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

  18. Mathematical and statistical analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Houston, A. Glen

    1988-01-01

    The goal of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS is to research, develop, and evaluate mathematical and statistical techniques for aerospace technology applications. Specific research areas of interest include modeling, simulation, experiment design, reliability assessment, and numerical analysis.

  19. Minnesota Health Statistics 1988.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Minnesota State Dept. of Health, St. Paul.

    This document comprises the 1988 annual statistical report of the Minnesota Center for Health Statistics. After introductory technical notes on changes in format, sources of data, and geographic allocation of vital events, an overview is provided of vital health statistics in all areas. Thereafter, separate sections of the report provide tables…

  20. Ethics in Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenard, Christopher; McCarthy, Sally; Mills, Terence

    2014-01-01

    There are many different aspects of statistics. Statistics involves mathematics, computing, and applications to almost every field of endeavour. Each aspect provides an opportunity to spark someone's interest in the subject. In this paper we discuss some ethical aspects of statistics, and describe how an introduction to ethics has been…

  1. Avoiding Statistical Mistakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strasser, Nora

    2007-01-01

    Avoiding statistical mistakes is important for educators at all levels. Basic concepts will help you to avoid making mistakes using statistics and to look at data with a critical eye. Statistical data is used at educational institutions for many purposes. It can be used to support budget requests, changes in educational philosophy, changes to…

  2. Statistical quality management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanderlaan, Paul

    1992-10-01

    Some aspects of statistical quality management are discussed. Quality has to be defined as a concrete, measurable quantity. The concepts of Total Quality Management (TQM), Statistical Process Control (SPC), and inspection are explained. In most cases SPC is better than inspection. It can be concluded that statistics has great possibilities in the field of TQM.

  3. Explorations in statistics: statistical facets of reproducibility.

    PubMed

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This eleventh installment of Explorations in Statistics explores statistical facets of reproducibility. If we obtain an experimental result that is scientifically meaningful and statistically unusual, we would like to know that our result reflects a general biological phenomenon that another researcher could reproduce if (s)he repeated our experiment. But more often than not, we may learn this researcher cannot replicate our result. The National Institutes of Health and the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology have created training modules and outlined strategies to help improve the reproducibility of research. These particular approaches are necessary, but they are not sufficient. The principles of hypothesis testing and estimation are inherent to the notion of reproducibility in science. If we want to improve the reproducibility of our research, then we need to rethink how we apply fundamental concepts of statistics to our science. PMID:27231259

  4. Statistical mechanics of violent relaxation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spergel, David N.; Hernquist, Lars

    1992-01-01

    We propose a functional that is extremized through violent relaxation. It is based on the Ansatz that the wave-particle scattering during violent dynamical processes can be approximated as a sequence of discrete scattering events that occur near a particle's perigalacticon. This functional has an extremum whose structure closely resembles that of spheroidal stellar systems such as elliptical galaxies. The results described here, therefore, provide a simple framework for understanding the physical nature of violent relaxation and support the view that galaxies are structured in accord with fundamental statistical principles.

  5. Nonstationary statistical theory for multipactor

    SciTech Connect

    Anza, S.; Vicente, C.; Gil, J.

    2010-06-15

    This work presents a new and general approach to the real dynamics of the multipactor process: the nonstationary statistical multipactor theory. The nonstationary theory removes the stationarity assumption of the classical theory and, as a consequence, it is able to adequately model electron exponential growth as well as absorption processes, above and below the multipactor breakdown level. In addition, it considers both double-surface and single-surface interactions constituting a full framework for nonresonant polyphase multipactor analysis. This work formulates the new theory and validates it with numerical and experimental results with excellent agreement.

  6. Statistical Properties of Online Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namazi, Alireza; Schadschneider, Andreas

    We characterize the statistical properties of a large number of online auctions run on eBay. Both stationary and dynamic properties, like distributions of prices, number of bids etc., as well as relations between these quantities are studied. The analysis of the data reveals surprisingly simple distributions and relations, typically of power-law form. Based on these findings we introduce a simple method to identify suspicious auctions that could be influenced by a form of fraud known as shill bidding. Furthermore the influence of bidding strategies is discussed. The results indicate that the observed behavior is related to a mixture of agents using a variety of strategies.

  7. The Statistical Mechanics of Zombies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alemi, Alexander A.; Bierbaum, Matthew; Myers, Christopher R.; Sethna, James P.

    2015-03-01

    We present results and analysis from a large scale exact stochastic dynamical simulation of a zombie outbreak. Zombies have attracted some attention lately as a novel and interesting twist on classic disease models. While most of the initial investigations have focused on the continuous, fully mixed dynamics of a differential equation model, we have explored stochastic, discrete simulations on lattices. We explore some of the basic statistical mechanical properties of the zombie model, including its phase diagram and critical exponents. We report on several variant models, including both homogeneous and inhomogeneous lattices, as well as allowing diffusive motion of infected hosts. We build up to a full scale simulation of an outbreak in the United States, and discover that for `realistic' parameters, we are largely doomed.

  8. Quantum Statistical Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schieve, William C.; Horwitz, Lawrence P.

    2009-04-01

    1. Foundations of quantum statistical mechanics; 2. Elementary examples; 3. Quantum statistical master equation; 4. Quantum kinetic equations; 5. Quantum irreversibility; 6. Entropy and dissipation: the microscopic theory; 7. Global equilibrium: thermostatics and the microcanonical ensemble; 8. Bose-Einstein ideal gas condensation; 9. Scaling, renormalization and the Ising model; 10. Relativistic covariant statistical mechanics of many particles; 11. Quantum optics and damping; 12. Entanglements; 13. Quantum measurement and irreversibility; 14. Quantum Langevin equation: quantum Brownian motion; 15. Linear response: fluctuation and dissipation theorems; 16. Time dependent quantum Green's functions; 17. Decay scattering; 18. Quantum statistical mechanics, extended; 19. Quantum transport with tunneling and reservoir ballistic transport; 20. Black hole thermodynamics; Appendix; Index.

  9. Statistical distribution sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, E. S.

    1975-01-01

    Determining the distribution of statistics by sampling was investigated. Characteristic functions, the quadratic regression problem, and the differential equations for the characteristic functions are analyzed.

  10. Statistical theory of nonadiabatic transitions.

    PubMed

    Neufeld, A A

    2005-04-22

    Based on results of the preceding paper, and assuming fast equilibration in phase space to the temperature of the surrounding media compared to the time scale of a reaction, we formulate a statistical theory of intramolecular nonadiabatic transitions. A classical mechanics description of phase space dynamics allows for an ab initio treatment of multidimensional reaction coordinates and easy combination with any standard molecular dynamics (MD) method. The presented approach has several features that distinguishes it from existing methodologies. First, the applicability limits of the approach are well defined. Second, the nonadiabatic transitions are treated dynamically, with full account of detailed balance, including zero-point energy, quantum coherence effects, arbitrarily long memory, and change of the free energy of the bath. Compared to popular trajectory surface hopping schemes, our MD-based algorithm is more efficient computationally, and does not use artificial ad hoc constructions like a "fewest switching" algorithm, and rescaling of velocities to conserve total energy. The enhanced capabilities of the new method are demonstrated considering a model of two coupled harmonic oscillators. We show that in the rate regime and at moderate friction the approach precisely reproduces the free-energy-gap law. It also predicts a general trend of the reaction dynamics in the low friction limit, and is valid beyond the rate regime. PMID:15945676

  11. Statistical regimes of random laser fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Lepri, Stefano; Cavalieri, Stefano; Oppo, Gian-Luca; Wiersma, Diederik S.

    2007-06-15

    Statistical fluctuations of the light emitted from amplifying random media are studied theoretically and numerically. The characteristic scales of the diffusive motion of light lead to Gaussian or power-law (Levy) distributed fluctuations depending on external control parameters. In the Levy regime, the output pulse is highly irregular leading to huge deviations from a mean-field description. Monte Carlo simulations of a simplified model which includes the population of the medium demonstrate the two statistical regimes and provide a comparison with dynamical rate equations. Different statistics of the fluctuations helps to explain recent experimental observations reported in the literature.

  12. Introductory statistical mechanics for electron storage rings

    SciTech Connect

    Jowett, J.M.

    1986-07-01

    These lectures introduce the beam dynamics of electron-positron storage rings with particular emphasis on the effects due to synchrotron radiation. They differ from most other introductions in their systematic use of the physical principles and mathematical techniques of the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of fluctuating dynamical systems. A self-contained exposition of the necessary topics from this field is included. Throughout the development, a Hamiltonian description of the effects of the externally applied fields is maintained in order to preserve the links with other lectures on beam dynamics and to show clearly the extent to which electron dynamics in non-Hamiltonian. The statistical mechanical framework is extended to a discussion of the conceptual foundations of the treatment of collective effects through the Vlasov equation.

  13. Explorations in Statistics: Regression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2011-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This seventh installment of "Explorations in Statistics" explores regression, a technique that estimates the nature of the relationship between two things for which we may only surmise a mechanistic or predictive connection.…

  14. Multidimensional Visual Statistical Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turk-Browne, Nicholas B.; Isola, Phillip J.; Scholl, Brian J.; Treat, Teresa A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent studies of visual statistical learning (VSL) have demonstrated that statistical regularities in sequences of visual stimuli can be automatically extracted, even without intent or awareness. Despite much work on this topic, however, several fundamental questions remain about the nature of VSL. In particular, previous experiments have not…

  15. On Statistical Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huberty, Carl J.

    An approach to statistical testing, which combines Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing and Fisher significance testing, is recommended. The use of P-values in this approach is discussed in some detail. The author also discusses some problems which are often found in introductory statistics textbooks. The problems involve the definitions of…

  16. Deconstructing Statistical Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snell, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Using a very complex statistical analysis and research method for the sake of enhancing the prestige of an article or making a new product or service legitimate needs to be monitored and questioned for accuracy. 1) The more complicated the statistical analysis, and research the fewer the number of learned readers can understand it. This adds a…

  17. Explorations in Statistics: Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2010-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This fifth installment of "Explorations in Statistics" revisits power, a concept fundamental to the test of a null hypothesis. Power is the probability that we reject the null hypothesis when it is false. Four things affect…

  18. Applied Statistics with SPSS

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huizingh, Eelko K. R. E.

    2007-01-01

    Accessibly written and easy to use, "Applied Statistics Using SPSS" is an all-in-one self-study guide to SPSS and do-it-yourself guide to statistics. What is unique about Eelko Huizingh's approach is that this book is based around the needs of undergraduate students embarking on their own research project, and its self-help style is designed to…

  19. Overhead Image Statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Vijayaraj, Veeraraghavan; Cheriyadat, Anil M; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Vatsavai, Raju; Bright, Eddie A

    2008-01-01

    Statistical properties of high-resolution overhead images representing different land use categories are analyzed using various local and global statistical image properties based on the shape of the power spectrum, image gradient distributions, edge co-occurrence, and inter-scale wavelet coefficient distributions. The analysis was performed on a database of high-resolution (1 meter) overhead images representing a multitude of different downtown, suburban, commercial, agricultural and wooded exemplars. Various statistical properties relating to these image categories and their relationship are discussed. The categorical variations in power spectrum contour shapes, the unique gradient distribution characteristics of wooded categories, the similarity in edge co-occurrence statistics for overhead and natural images, and the unique edge co-occurrence statistics of downtown categories are presented in this work. Though previous work on natural image statistics has showed some of the unique characteristics for different categories, the relationships for overhead images are not well understood. The statistical properties of natural images were used in previous studies to develop prior image models, to predict and index objects in a scene and to improve computer vision models. The results from our research findings can be used to augment and adapt computer vision algorithms that rely on prior image statistics to process overhead images, calibrate the performance of overhead image analysis algorithms, and derive features for better discrimination of overhead image categories.

  20. Understanding Undergraduate Statistical Anxiety

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKim, Courtney

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand undergraduate students' views of statistics. Results reveal that students with less anxiety have a higher interest in statistics and also believe in their ability to perform well in the course. Also students who have a more positive attitude about the class tend to have a higher belief in their…

  1. Statistics and Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Croarkin, M. Carroll

    2001-01-01

    For more than 50 years, the Statistical Engineering Division (SED) has been instrumental in the success of a broad spectrum of metrology projects at NBS/NIST. This paper highlights fundamental contributions of NBS/NIST statisticians to statistics and to measurement science and technology. Published methods developed by SED staff, especially during the early years, endure as cornerstones of statistics not only in metrology and standards applications, but as data-analytic resources used across all disciplines. The history of statistics at NBS/NIST began with the formation of what is now the SED. Examples from the first five decades of the SED illustrate the critical role of the division in the successful resolution of a few of the highly visible, and sometimes controversial, statistical studies of national importance. A review of the history of major early publications of the division on statistical methods, design of experiments, and error analysis and uncertainty is followed by a survey of several thematic areas. The accompanying examples illustrate the importance of SED in the history of statistics, measurements and standards: calibration and measurement assurance, interlaboratory tests, development of measurement methods, Standard Reference Materials, statistical computing, and dissemination of measurement technology. A brief look forward sketches the expanding opportunity and demand for SED statisticians created by current trends in research and development at NIST.

  2. Water Quality Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgson, Ted; Andersen, Lyle; Robison-Cox, Jim; Jones, Clain

    2004-01-01

    Water quality experiments, especially the use of macroinvertebrates as indicators of water quality, offer an ideal context for connecting statistics and science. In the STAR program for secondary students and teachers, water quality experiments were also used as a context for teaching statistics. In this article, we trace one activity that uses…

  3. Application Statistics 1987.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Council of Ontario Universities, Toronto.

    Summary statistics on application and registration patterns of applicants wishing to pursue full-time study in first-year places in Ontario universities (for the fall of 1987) are given. Data on registrations were received indirectly from the universities as part of their annual submission of USIS/UAR enrollment data to Statistics Canada and MCU.…

  4. Introduction to Statistical Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casquilho, João Paulo; Ivo Cortez Teixeira, Paulo

    2014-12-01

    Preface; 1. Random walks; 2. Review of thermodynamics; 3. The postulates of statistical physics. Thermodynamic equilibrium; 4. Statistical thermodynamics – developments and applications; 5. The classical ideal gas; 6. The quantum ideal gas; 7. Magnetism; 8. The Ising model; 9. Liquid crystals; 10. Phase transitions and critical phenomena; 11. Irreversible processes; Appendixes; Index.

  5. Reform in Statistical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huck, Schuyler W.

    2007-01-01

    Two questions are considered in this article: (a) What should professionals in school psychology do in an effort to stay current with developments in applied statistics? (b) What should they do with their existing knowledge to move from surface understanding of statistics to deep understanding? Written for school psychologists who have completed…

  6. Statistical Mapping by Computer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Utano, Jack J.

    The function of a statistical map is to provide readers with a visual impression of the data so that they may be able to identify any geographic characteristics of the displayed phenomena. The increasingly important role played by the computer in the production of statistical maps is manifested by the varied examples of computer maps in recent…

  7. DISABILITY STATISTICS CENTER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of the Disability Statistics Center is to produce and disseminate statistical information on disability and the status of people with disabilities in American society and to establish and monitor indicators of how conditions are changing over time to meet their health...

  8. Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

    PubMed

    Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

    2015-10-01

    Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. PMID:26466186

  9. Statistics in medicine.

    PubMed

    Januszyk, Michael; Gurtner, Geoffrey C

    2011-01-01

    The scope of biomedical research has expanded rapidly during the past several decades, and statistical analysis has become increasingly necessary to understand the meaning of large and diverse quantities of raw data. As such, a familiarity with this lexicon is essential for critical appraisal of medical literature. This article attempts to provide a practical overview of medical statistics, with an emphasis on the selection, application, and interpretation of specific tests. This includes a brief review of statistical theory and its nomenclature, particularly with regard to the classification of variables. A discussion of descriptive methods for data presentation is then provided, followed by an overview of statistical inference and significance analysis, and detailed treatment of specific statistical tests and guidelines for their interpretation. PMID:21200241

  10. Environmental statistics and optimal regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sivak, David; Thomson, Matt

    2015-03-01

    The precision with which an organism can detect its environment, and the timescale for and statistics of environmental change, will affect the suitability of different strategies for regulating protein levels in response to environmental inputs. We propose a general framework--here applied to the enzymatic regulation of metabolism in response to changing nutrient concentrations--to predict the optimal regulatory strategy given the statistics of fluctuations in the environment and measurement apparatus, and the costs associated with enzyme production. We find: (i) relative convexity of enzyme expression cost and benefit influences the fitness of thresholding or graded responses; (ii) intermediate levels of measurement uncertainty call for a sophisticated Bayesian decision rule; and (iii) in dynamic contexts, intermediate levels of uncertainty call for retaining memory of the past. Statistical properties of the environment, such as variability and correlation times, set optimal biochemical parameters, such as thresholds and decay rates in signaling pathways. Our framework provides a theoretical basis for interpreting molecular signal processing algorithms and a classification scheme that organizes known regulatory strategies and may help conceptualize heretofore unknown ones.

  11. Statistical mechanics of complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waclaw, B.

    2007-04-01

    The science of complex networks is a new interdisciplinary branch of science which has arisen recently on the interface of physics, biology, social and computer sciences, and others. Its main goal is to discover general laws governing the creation and growth as well as processes taking place on networks, like e.g. the Internet, transportation or neural networks. It turned out that most real-world networks cannot be simply reduced to a compound of some individual components. Fortunately, the statistical mechanics, being one of pillars of modern physics, provides us with a very powerful set of tools and methods for describing and understanding these systems. In this thesis, we would like to present a consistent approach to complex networks based on statistical mechanics, with the central role played by the concept of statistical ensemble of networks. We show how to construct such a theory and present some practical problems where it can be applied. Among them, we pay attention to the problem of finite-size corrections and the dynamics of a simple model of mass transport on networks.

  12. Statistics at a glance.

    PubMed

    Ector, Hugo

    2010-12-01

    I still remember my first book on statistics: "Elementary statistics with applications in medicine and the biological sciences" by Frederick E. Croxton. For me, it has been the start of pursuing understanding statistics in daily life and in medical practice. It was the first volume in a long row of books. In his introduction, Croxton pretends that"nearly everyone involved in any aspect of medicine needs to have some knowledge of statistics". The reality is that for many clinicians, statistics are limited to a "P < 0.05 = ok". I do not blame my colleagues who omit the paragraph on statistical methods. They have never had the opportunity to learn concise and clear descriptions of the key features. I have experienced how some authors can describe difficult methods in a well understandable language. Others fail completely. As a teacher, I tell my students that life is impossible without a basic knowledge of statistics. This feeling has resulted in an annual seminar of 90 minutes. This tutorial is the summary of this seminar. It is a summary and a transcription of the best pages I have detected. PMID:21302664

  13. Statistics: A Brief Overview

    PubMed Central

    Winters, Ryan; Winters, Andrew; Amedee, Ronald G.

    2010-01-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education sets forth a number of required educational topics that must be addressed in residency and fellowship programs. We sought to provide a primer on some of the important basic statistical concepts to consider when examining the medical literature. It is not essential to understand the exact workings and methodology of every statistical test encountered, but it is necessary to understand selected concepts such as parametric and nonparametric tests, correlation, and numerical versus categorical data. This working knowledge will allow you to spot obvious irregularities in statistical analyses that you encounter. PMID:21603381

  14. Dynamic Optimization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laird, Philip

    1992-01-01

    We distinguish static and dynamic optimization of programs: whereas static optimization modifies a program before runtime and is based only on its syntactical structure, dynamic optimization is based on the statistical properties of the input source and examples of program execution. Explanation-based generalization is a commonly used dynamic optimization method, but its effectiveness as a speedup-learning method is limited, in part because it fails to separate the learning process from the program transformation process. This paper describes a dynamic optimization technique called a learn-optimize cycle that first uses a learning element to uncover predictable patterns in the program execution and then uses an optimization algorithm to map these patterns into beneficial transformations. The technique has been used successfully for dynamic optimization of pure Prolog.

  15. STATWIZ - AN ELECTRONIC STATISTICAL TOOL (ABSTRACT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    StatWiz is a web-based, interactive, and dynamic statistical tool for researchers. It will allow researchers to input information and/or data and then receive experimental design options, or outputs from data analysis. StatWiz is envisioned as an expert system that will walk rese...

  16. Playing at Statistical Mechanics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Paul M.; And Others

    1974-01-01

    Discussed are the applications of counting techniques of a sorting game to distributions and concepts in statistical mechanics. Included are the following distributions: Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein, and most probable. (RH)

  17. Cooperative Learning in Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keeler, Carolyn M.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Formal use of cooperative learning techniques proved effective in improving student performance and retention in a freshman level statistics course. Lectures interspersed with group activities proved effective in increasing conceptual understanding and overall class performance. (11 references) (Author)

  18. Understanding Solar Flare Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheatland, M. S.

    2005-12-01

    A review is presented of work aimed at understanding solar flare statistics, with emphasis on the well known flare power-law size distribution. Although avalanche models are perhaps the favoured model to describe flare statistics, their physical basis is unclear, and they are divorced from developing ideas in large-scale reconnection theory. An alternative model, aimed at reconciling large-scale reconnection models with solar flare statistics, is revisited. The solar flare waiting-time distribution has also attracted recent attention. Observed waiting-time distributions are described, together with what they might tell us about the flare phenomenon. Finally, a practical application of flare statistics to flare prediction is described in detail, including the results of a year of automated (web-based) predictions from the method.

  19. Titanic: A Statistical Exploration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Takis, Sandra L.

    1999-01-01

    Uses the available data about the Titanic's passengers to interest students in exploring categorical data and the chi-square distribution. Describes activities incorporated into a statistics class and gives additional resources for collecting information about the Titanic. (ASK)

  20. Plague Maps and Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Plague in the United States Plague was first introduced ... per year in the United States: 1900-2012. Plague Worldwide Plague epidemics have occurred in Africa, Asia, ...

  1. Elements of Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grégoire, G.

    2016-05-01

    This chapter is devoted to two objectives. The first one is to answer the request expressed by attendees of the first Astrostatistics School (Annecy, October 2013) to be provided with an elementary vademecum of statistics that would facilitate understanding of the given courses. In this spirit we recall very basic notions, that is definitions and properties that we think sufficient to benefit from courses given in the Astrostatistical School. Thus we give briefly definitions and elementary properties on random variables and vectors, distributions, estimation and tests, maximum likelihood methodology. We intend to present basic ideas in a hopefully comprehensible way. We do not try to give a rigorous presentation, and due to the place devoted to this chapter, can cover only a rather limited field of statistics. The second aim is to focus on some statistical tools that are useful in classification: basic introduction to Bayesian statistics, maximum likelihood methodology, Gaussian vectors and Gaussian mixture models.

  2. Tuberculosis Data and Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Organization Chart Advisory Groups Federal TB Task Force Data and Statistics Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on ... United States publication. PDF [6 MB] Interactive TB Data Tool Online Tuberculosis Information System (OTIS) OTIS is ...

  3. Statistics of the sagas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richfield, Jon; bookfeller

    2016-07-01

    In reply to Ralph Kenna and Pádraig Mac Carron's feature article “Maths meets myths” in which they describe how they are using techniques from statistical physics to characterize the societies depicted in ancient Icelandic sagas.

  4. Brain Tumor Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... facts and statistics here include brain and central nervous system tumors (including spinal cord, pituitary and pineal gland ... U.S. living with a primary brain and central nervous system tumor. This year, nearly 17,000 people will ...

  5. Purposeful Statistical Investigations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Day, Lorraine

    2014-01-01

    Lorraine Day provides us with a great range of statistical investigations using various resources such as maths300 and TinkerPlots. Each of the investigations link mathematics to students' lives and provide engaging and meaningful contexts for mathematical inquiry.

  6. Statistical process control

    SciTech Connect

    Oakland, J.S.

    1986-01-01

    Addressing the increasing importance for firms to have a thorough knowledge of statistically based quality control procedures, this book presents the fundamentals of statistical process control (SPC) in a non-mathematical, practical way. It provides real-life examples and data drawn from a wide variety of industries. The foundations of good quality management and process control, and control of conformance and consistency during production are given. Offers clear guidance to those who wish to understand and implement modern SPC techniques.

  7. Statistical Physics of Particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kardar, Mehran

    2006-06-01

    Statistical physics has its origins in attempts to describe the thermal properties of matter in terms of its constituent particles, and has played a fundamental role in the development of quantum mechanics. Based on lectures for a course in statistical mechanics taught by Professor Kardar at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, this textbook introduces the central concepts and tools of statistical physics. It contains a chapter on probability and related issues such as the central limit theorem and information theory, and covers interacting particles, with an extensive description of the van der Waals equation and its derivation by mean field approximation. It also contains an integrated set of problems, with solutions to selected problems at the end of the book. It will be invaluable for graduate and advanced undergraduate courses in statistical physics. A complete set of solutions is available to lecturers on a password protected website at www.cambridge.org/9780521873420. Based on lecture notes from a course on Statistical Mechanics taught by the author at MIT Contains 89 exercises, with solutions to selected problems Contains chapters on probability and interacting particles Ideal for graduate courses in Statistical Mechanics

  8. SDI satellite autonomy using AI and Ada

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fiala, Harvey E.

    1990-01-01

    The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the programming language Ada to help a satellite recover from selected failures that could lead to mission failure are described. An unmanned satellite will have a separate AI subsystem running in parallel with the normal satellite subsystems. A satellite monitoring subsystem (SMS), under the control of a blackboard system, will continuously monitor selected satellite subsystems to become alert to any actual or potential problems. In the case of loss of communications with the earth or the home base, the satellite will go into a survival mode to reestablish communications with the earth. The use of an AI subsystem in this manner would have avoided the tragic loss of the two recent Soviet probes that were sent to investigate the planet Mars and its moons. The blackboard system works in conjunction with an SMS and a reconfiguration control subsystem (RCS). It can be shown to be an effective way for one central control subsystem to monitor and coordinate the activities and loads of many interacting subsystems that may or may not contain redundant and/or fault-tolerant elements. The blackboard system will be coded in Ada using tools such as the ABLE development system and the Ada Production system.

  9. Corn production with Spray, LEPA, and SDI

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Corn, a major irrigated crop in the U.S. Great Plains, has a large irrigation requirement making efficient, effective irrigation technology important. The objective of this paper was to compare corn productivity for different irrigation methods and irrigation rates in 2009 and 2010 at Bushland, Texa...

  10. Statistical characterization of real-world illumination.

    PubMed

    Dror, Ron O; Willsky, Alan S; Adelson, Edward H

    2004-09-28

    Although studies of vision and graphics often assume simple illumination models, real-world illumination is highly complex, with reflected light incident on a surface from almost every direction. One can capture the illumination from every direction at one point photographically using a spherical illumination map. This work illustrates, through analysis of photographically acquired, high dynamic range illumination maps, that real-world illumination possesses a high degree of statistical regularity. The marginal and joint wavelet coefficient distributions and harmonic spectra of illumination maps resemble those documented in the natural image statistics literature. However, illumination maps differ from typical photographs in that illumination maps are statistically nonstationary and may contain localized light sources that dominate their power spectra. Our work provides a foundation for statistical models of real-world illumination, thereby facilitating the understanding of human material perception, the design of robust computer vision systems, and the rendering of realistic computer graphics imagery. PMID:15493972

  11. Statistical Physics of Fracture

    SciTech Connect

    Alava, Mikko; Nukala, Phani K; Zapperi, Stefano

    2006-05-01

    Disorder and long-range interactions are two of the key components that make material failure an interesting playfield for the application of statistical mechanics. The cornerstone in this respect has been lattice models of the fracture in which a network of elastic beams, bonds, or electrical fuses with random failure thresholds are subject to an increasing external load. These models describe on a qualitative level the failure processes of real, brittle, or quasi-brittle materials. This has been particularly important in solving the classical engineering problems of material strength: the size dependence of maximum stress and its sample-to-sample statistical fluctuations. At the same time, lattice models pose many new fundamental questions in statistical physics, such as the relation between fracture and phase transitions. Experimental results point out to the existence of an intriguing crackling noise in the acoustic emission and of self-affine fractals in the crack surface morphology. Recent advances in computer power have enabled considerable progress in the understanding of such models. Among these partly still controversial issues, are the scaling and size-effects in material strength and accumulated damage, the statistics of avalanches or bursts of microfailures, and the morphology of the crack surface. Here we present an overview of the results obtained with lattice models for fracture, highlighting the relations with statistical physics theories and more conventional fracture mechanics approaches.

  12. Statistical Mechanics of Turbulent Dynamos

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shebalin, John V.

    2014-01-01

    Incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence and magnetic dynamos, which occur in magnetofluids with large fluid and magnetic Reynolds numbers, will be discussed. When Reynolds numbers are large and energy decays slowly, the distribution of energy with respect to length scale becomes quasi-stationary and MHD turbulence can be described statistically. In the limit of infinite Reynolds numbers, viscosity and resistivity become zero and if these values are used in the MHD equations ab initio, a model system called ideal MHD turbulence results. This model system is typically confined in simple geometries with some form of homogeneous boundary conditions, allowing for velocity and magnetic field to be represented by orthogonal function expansions. One advantage to this is that the coefficients of the expansions form a set of nonlinearly interacting variables whose behavior can be described by equilibrium statistical mechanics, i.e., by a canonical ensemble theory based on the global invariants (energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity) of ideal MHD turbulence. Another advantage is that truncated expansions provide a finite dynamical system whose time evolution can be numerically simulated to test the predictions of the associated statistical mechanics. If ensemble predictions are the same as time averages, then the system is said to be ergodic; if not, the system is nonergodic. Although it had been implicitly assumed in the early days of ideal MHD statistical theory development that these finite dynamical systems were ergodic, numerical simulations provided sufficient evidence that they were, in fact, nonergodic. Specifically, while canonical ensemble theory predicted that expansion coefficients would be (i) zero-mean random variables with (ii) energy that decreased with length scale, it was found that although (ii) was correct, (i) was not and the expected ergodicity was broken. The exact cause of this broken ergodicity was explained, after much

  13. Statistical mechanics of complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albert, Réka; Barabási, Albert-László

    2002-01-01

    Complex networks describe a wide range of systems in nature and society. Frequently cited examples include the cell, a network of chemicals linked by chemical reactions, and the Internet, a network of routers and computers connected by physical links. While traditionally these systems have been modeled as random graphs, it is increasingly recognized that the topology and evolution of real networks are governed by robust organizing principles. This article reviews the recent advances in the field of complex networks, focusing on the statistical mechanics of network topology and dynamics. After reviewing the empirical data that motivated the recent interest in networks, the authors discuss the main models and analytical tools, covering random graphs, small-world and scale-free networks, the emerging theory of evolving networks, and the interplay between topology and the network's robustness against failures and attacks.

  14. Suite versus composite statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Balsillie, J.H.; Tanner, W.F.

    1999-01-01

    Suite and composite methodologies, two statistically valid approaches for producing statistical descriptive measures, are investigated for sample groups representing a probability distribution where, in addition, each sample is probability distribution. Suite and composite means (first moment measures) are always equivalent. Composite standard deviations (second moment measures) are always larger than suite standard deviations. Suite and composite values for higher moment measures have more complex relationships. Very seldom, however, are they equivalent, and they normally yield statistically significant but different results. Multiple samples are preferable to single samples (including composites) because they permit the investigator to examine sample-to-sample variability. These and other relationships for suite and composite probability distribution analyses are investigated and reported using granulometric data.

  15. Candidate Assembly Statistical Evaluation

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-07-15

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) receives aluminum clad spent Material Test Reactor (MTR) fuel from all over the world for storage and eventual reprocessing. There are hundreds of different kinds of MTR fuels and these fuels will continue to be received at SRS for approximately ten more years. SRS''s current criticality evaluation methodology requires the modeling of all MTR fuels utilizing Monte Carlo codes, which is extremely time consuming and resource intensive. Now that amore » significant number of MTR calculations have been conducted it is feasible to consider building statistical models that will provide reasonable estimations of MTR behavior. These statistical models can be incorporated into a standardized model homogenization spreadsheet package to provide analysts with a means of performing routine MTR fuel analyses with a minimal commitment of time and resources. This became the purpose for development of the Candidate Assembly Statistical Evaluation (CASE) program at SRS.« less

  16. Perception in statistical graphics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    VanderPlas, Susan Ruth

    There has been quite a bit of research on statistical graphics and visualization, generally focused on new types of graphics, new software to create graphics, interactivity, and usability studies. Our ability to interpret and use statistical graphics hinges on the interface between the graph itself and the brain that perceives and interprets it, and there is substantially less research on the interplay between graph, eye, brain, and mind than is sufficient to understand the nature of these relationships. The goal of the work presented here is to further explore the interplay between a static graph, the translation of that graph from paper to mental representation (the journey from eye to brain), and the mental processes that operate on that graph once it is transferred into memory (mind). Understanding the perception of statistical graphics should allow researchers to create more effective graphs which produce fewer distortions and viewer errors while reducing the cognitive load necessary to understand the information presented in the graph. Taken together, these experiments should lay a foundation for exploring the perception of statistical graphics. There has been considerable research into the accuracy of numerical judgments viewers make from graphs, and these studies are useful, but it is more effective to understand how errors in these judgments occur so that the root cause of the error can be addressed directly. Understanding how visual reasoning relates to the ability to make judgments from graphs allows us to tailor graphics to particular target audiences. In addition, understanding the hierarchy of salient features in statistical graphics allows us to clearly communicate the important message from data or statistical models by constructing graphics which are designed specifically for the perceptual system.

  17. Accelerated molecular dynamics methods

    SciTech Connect

    Perez, Danny

    2011-01-04

    The molecular dynamics method, although extremely powerful for materials simulations, is limited to times scales of roughly one microsecond or less. On longer time scales, dynamical evolution typically consists of infrequent events, which are usually activated processes. This course is focused on understanding infrequent-event dynamics, on methods for characterizing infrequent-event mechanisms and rate constants, and on methods for simulating long time scales in infrequent-event systems, emphasizing the recently developed accelerated molecular dynamics methods (hyperdynamics, parallel replica dynamics, and temperature accelerated dynamics). Some familiarity with basic statistical mechanics and molecular dynamics methods will be assumed.

  18. Statistical benchmark for BosonSampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walschaers, Mattia; Kuipers, Jack; Urbina, Juan-Diego; Mayer, Klaus; Tichy, Malte Christopher; Richter, Klaus; Buchleitner, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    Boson samplers—set-ups that generate complex many-particle output states through the transmission of elementary many-particle input states across a multitude of mutually coupled modes—promise the efficient quantum simulation of a classically intractable computational task, and challenge the extended Church-Turing thesis, one of the fundamental dogmas of computer science. However, as in all experimental quantum simulations of truly complex systems, one crucial problem remains: how to certify that a given experimental measurement record unambiguously results from enforcing the claimed dynamics, on bosons, fermions or distinguishable particles? Here we offer a statistical solution to the certification problem, identifying an unambiguous statistical signature of many-body quantum interference upon transmission across a multimode, random scattering device. We show that statistical analysis of only partial information on the output state allows to characterise the imparted dynamics through particle type-specific features of the emerging interference patterns. The relevant statistical quantifiers are classically computable, define a falsifiable benchmark for BosonSampling, and reveal distinctive features of many-particle quantum dynamics, which go much beyond mere bunching or anti-bunching effects.

  19. Computing statistics for Hamiltonian systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tupper, P. F.

    2007-08-01

    We present the results of a set of numerical experiments designed to investigate the appropriateness of various integration schemes for molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we wish to identify which numerical methods, when applied to an ergodic Hamiltonian system, sample the state-space in an unbiased manner. We do this by describing two Hamiltonian system for which we can analytically compute some of the important statistical features of its trajectories, and then applying various numerical integration schemes to them. We can then compare the results from the numerical simulation against the exact results for the system and see how closely they agree. The statistic we study is the empirical distribution of particle velocity over long trajectories of the systems. We apply four methods: one symplectic method (Stormer-Verlet) and three energy-conserving step-and-project methods. The symplectic method performs better on both test problems, accurately computing empirical distributions for all step-lengths consistent with stability. Depending on the test system and the method, the step-and-project methods are either no longer ergodic for any step length (thus giving the wrong empirical distribution) or give the correct distribution only in the limit of step-size going to zero.

  20. Random paths and current fluctuations in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics

    SciTech Connect

    Gaspard, Pierre

    2014-07-15

    An overview is given of recent advances in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics about the statistics of random paths and current fluctuations. Although statistics is carried out in space for equilibrium statistical mechanics, statistics is considered in time or spacetime for nonequilibrium systems. In this approach, relationships have been established between nonequilibrium properties such as the transport coefficients, the thermodynamic entropy production, or the affinities, and quantities characterizing the microscopic Hamiltonian dynamics and the chaos or fluctuations it may generate. This overview presents results for classical systems in the escape-rate formalism, stochastic processes, and open quantum systems.

  1. Statistical complexity measure of pseudorandom bit generators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, C. M.; Larrondo, H. A.; Rosso, O. A.

    2005-08-01

    Pseudorandom number generators (PRNG) are extensively used in Monte Carlo simulations, gambling machines and cryptography as substitutes of ideal random number generators (RNG). Each application imposes different statistical requirements to PRNGs. As L’Ecuyer clearly states “the main goal for Monte Carlo methods is to reproduce the statistical properties on which these methods are based whereas for gambling machines and cryptology, observing the sequence of output values for some time should provide no practical advantage for predicting the forthcoming numbers better than by just guessing at random”. In accordance with different applications several statistical test suites have been developed to analyze the sequences generated by PRNGs. In a recent paper a new statistical complexity measure [Phys. Lett. A 311 (2003) 126] has been defined. Here we propose this measure, as a randomness quantifier of a PRNGs. The test is applied to three very well known and widely tested PRNGs available in the literature. All of them are based on mathematical algorithms. Another PRNGs based on Lorenz 3D chaotic dynamical system is also analyzed. PRNGs based on chaos may be considered as a model for physical noise sources and important new results are recently reported. All the design steps of this PRNG are described, and each stage increase the PRNG randomness using different strategies. It is shown that the MPR statistical complexity measure is capable to quantify this randomness improvement. The PRNG based on the chaotic 3D Lorenz dynamical system is also evaluated using traditional digital signal processing tools for comparison.

  2. Nonextensive statistical mechanics: A brief introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsallis, C.; Brigatti, E.

    . Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics is based on the entropy S BG = -k ∑ {i = 1}W pi pi. It enables a successful thermal approach to ubiquitous systems, such as those involving short-range interactions, markovian processes, and, generally speaking, those systems whose dynamical occupancy of phase space tends to be ergodic. For systems whose microscopic dynamics is more complex, it is natural to expect that the dynamical occupancy of phase space will have a less trivial structure, for example a (multi)fractal or hierarchical geometry. The question naturally arises whether it is possible to study such systems with concepts and methods similar to those of standard statistical mechanics. The answer appears to be yes for ubiquitous systems, but the concept of entropy needs to be adequately generalized. Some classes of such systems can be satisfactorily approached with the entropy Sq = k {1-∑ {i = 1}W piq}{q-1} (with q l R, and S1 = S BG). This theory is sometimes referred in the literature as nonextensive statistical mechanics. We provide here a brief introduction to the formalism, its dynamical foundations, and some illustrative applications. In addition to these, we illustrate with a few examples the concept of stability (or experimental robustness) introduced by B. Lesche in 1982 and recently revisited by S. Abe.

  3. Analogies for Understanding Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hocquette, Jean-Francois

    2004-01-01

    This article describes a simple way to explain the limitations of statistics to scientists and students to avoid the publication of misleading conclusions. Biologists examine their results extremely critically and carefully choose the appropriate analytic methods depending on their scientific objectives. However, no such close attention is usually…

  4. Statistical methods in microbiology.

    PubMed Central

    Ilstrup, D M

    1990-01-01

    Statistical methodology is viewed by the average laboratory scientist, or physician, sometimes with fear and trepidation, occasionally with loathing, and seldom with fondness. Statistics may never be loved by the medical community, but it does not have to be hated by them. It is true that statistical science is sometimes highly mathematical, always philosophical, and occasionally obtuse, but for the majority of medical studies it can be made palatable. The goal of this article has been to outline a finite set of methods of analysis that investigators should choose based on the nature of the variable being studied and the design of the experiment. The reader is encouraged to seek the advice of a professional statistician when there is any doubt about the appropriate method of analysis. A statistician can also help the investigator with problems that have nothing to do with statistical tests, such as quality control, choice of response variable and comparison groups, randomization, and blinding of assessment of response variables. PMID:2200604

  5. Statistical Energy Analysis Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferebee, R. C.; Trudell, R. W.; Yano, L. I.; Nygaard, S. I.

    1985-01-01

    Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is powerful tool for estimating highfrequency vibration spectra of complex structural systems and incorporated into computer program. Basic SEA analysis procedure divided into three steps: Idealization, parameter generation, and problem solution. SEA computer program written in FORTRAN V for batch execution.

  6. Statistical Significance Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLean, James E., Ed.; Kaufman, Alan S., Ed.

    1998-01-01

    The controversy about the use or misuse of statistical significance testing has become the major methodological issue in educational research. This special issue contains three articles that explore the controversy, three commentaries on these articles, an overall response, and three rejoinders by the first three authors. They are: (1)…

  7. Education Statistics Quarterly, 2003.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marenus, Barbara; Burns, Shelley; Fowler, William; Greene, Wilma; Knepper, Paula; Kolstad, Andrew; McMillen Seastrom, Marilyn; Scott, Leslie

    2003-01-01

    This publication provides a comprehensive overview of work done across all parts of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Each issue contains short publications, summaries, and descriptions that cover all NCES publications and data products released in a 3-month period. Each issue also contains a message from the NCES on a timely…

  8. Spitball Scatterplots in Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagaman, John C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes an active learning idea that I have used in my applied statistics class as a first lesson in correlation and regression. Students propel spitballs from various standing distances from the target and use the recorded data to determine if the spitball accuracy is associated with standing distance and review the algebra of lines…

  9. Lack of Statistical Significance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kehle, Thomas J.; Bray, Melissa A.; Chafouleas, Sandra M.; Kawano, Takuji

    2007-01-01

    Criticism has been leveled against the use of statistical significance testing (SST) in many disciplines. However, the field of school psychology has been largely devoid of critiques of SST. Inspection of the primary journals in school psychology indicated numerous examples of SST with nonrandom samples and/or samples of convenience. In this…

  10. Juvenile Court Statistics - 1972.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of Youth Development (DHEW), Washington, DC.

    This report is a statistical study of juvenile court cases in 1972. The data demonstrates how the court is frequently utilized in dealing with juvenile delinquency by the police as well as by other community agencies and parents. Excluded from this report are the ordinary traffic cases handled by juvenile court. The data indicate that: (1) in…

  11. Library Research and Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lynch, Mary Jo; St. Lifer, Evan; Halstead, Kent; Fox, Bette-Lee; Miller, Marilyn L.; Shontz, Marilyn L.

    2001-01-01

    These nine articles discuss research and statistics on libraries and librarianship, including libraries in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; acquisition expenditures in public, academic, special, and government libraries; price indexes; state rankings of public library data; library buildings; expenditures in school library media centers; and…

  12. Foundations of Statistical Seismology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vere-Jones, David

    2010-06-01

    A brief account is given of the principles of stochastic modelling in seismology, with special regard to the role and development of stochastic models for seismicity. Stochastic models are seen as arising in a hierarchy of roles in seismology, as in other scientific disciplines. At their simplest, they provide a convenient descriptive tool for summarizing data patterns; in engineering and other applications, they provide a practical way of bridging the gap between the detailed modelling of a complex system, and the need to fit models to limited data; at the most fundamental level they arise as a basic component in the modelling of earthquake phenomena, analogous to that of stochastic models in statistical mechanics or turbulence theory. As an emerging subdiscipline, statistical seismology includes elements of all of these. The scope for the development of stochastic models depends crucially on the quantity and quality of the available data. The availability of extensive, high-quality catalogues and other relevant data lies behind the recent explosion of interest in statistical seismology. At just such a stage, it seems important to review the underlying principles on which statistical modelling is based, and that is the main purpose of the present paper.

  13. Graduate Statistics: Student Attitudes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Robert L.; Broadston, Pamela M.

    2004-01-01

    This study investigated the attitudes toward statistics of graduate students who used a computer program as part of the instruction, which allowed for an individualized, self-paced, student-centered, activity-based course. The twelve sections involved in this study were offered in the spring and fall 2001, spring and fall 2002, spring and fall…

  14. Geopositional Statistical Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ross, Kenton

    2006-01-01

    RMSE based methods distort circular error estimates (up to 50% overestimation). The empirical approach is the only statistically unbiased estimator offered. Ager modification to Shultz approach is nearly unbiased, but cumbersome. All methods hover around 20% uncertainty (@ 95% confidence) for low geopositional bias error estimates. This requires careful consideration in assessment of higher accuracy products.

  15. Statistical Reasoning over Lunch

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Selmer, Sarah J.; Bolyard, Johnna J.; Rye, James A.

    2011-01-01

    Students in the 21st century are exposed daily to a staggering amount of numerically infused media. In this era of abundant numeric data, students must be able to engage in sound statistical reasoning when making life decisions after exposure to varied information. The context of nutrition can be used to engage upper elementary and middle school…

  16. Fractional statistics and confinement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaete, P.; Wotzasek, C.

    2005-02-01

    It is shown that a pointlike composite having charge and magnetic moment displays a confining potential for the static interaction while simultaneously obeying fractional statistics in a pure gauge theory in three dimensions, without a Chern-Simons term. This result is distinct from the Maxwell-Chern-Simons theory that shows a screening nature for the potential.

  17. Statistics for Learning Genetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles, Abigail Sheena

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the knowledge and skills that biology students may need to help them understand statistics/mathematics as it applies to genetics. The data are based on analyses of current representative genetics texts, practicing genetics professors' perspectives, and more directly, students' perceptions of, and performance in,…

  18. Learning Statistical Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akram, Muhammad; Siddiqui, Asim Jamal; Yasmeen, Farah

    2004-01-01

    In order to learn the concept of statistical techniques one needs to run real experiments that generate reliable data. In practice, the data from some well-defined process or system is very costly and time consuming. It is difficult to run real experiments during the teaching period in the university. To overcome these difficulties, statisticians…

  19. Statistics for Learning Genetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, Abigail Sheena

    This study investigated the knowledge and skills that biology students may need to help them understand statistics/mathematics as it applies to genetics. The data are based on analyses of current representative genetics texts, practicing genetics professors' perspectives, and more directly, students' perceptions of, and performance in, doing statistically-based genetics problems. This issue is at the emerging edge of modern college-level genetics instruction, and this study attempts to identify key theoretical components for creating a specialized biological statistics curriculum. The goal of this curriculum will be to prepare biology students with the skills for assimilating quantitatively-based genetic processes, increasingly at the forefront of modern genetics. To fulfill this, two college level classes at two universities were surveyed. One university was located in the northeastern US and the other in the West Indies. There was a sample size of 42 students and a supplementary interview was administered to a select 9 students. Interviews were also administered to professors in the field in order to gain insight into the teaching of statistics in genetics. Key findings indicated that students had very little to no background in statistics (55%). Although students did perform well on exams with 60% of the population receiving an A or B grade, 77% of them did not offer good explanations on a probability question associated with the normal distribution provided in the survey. The scope and presentation of the applicable statistics/mathematics in some of the most used textbooks in genetics teaching, as well as genetics syllabi used by instructors do not help the issue. It was found that the text books, often times, either did not give effective explanations for students, or completely left out certain topics. The omission of certain statistical/mathematical oriented topics was seen to be also true with the genetics syllabi reviewed for this study. Nonetheless

  20. Lifetime statistics in chaotic dielectric microresonators

    SciTech Connect

    Schomerus, Henning; Wiersig, Jan; Main, Joerg

    2009-05-15

    We discuss the statistical properties of lifetimes of electromagnetic quasibound states in dielectric microresonators with fully chaotic ray dynamics. Using the example of a resonator of stadium geometry, we find that a recently proposed random-matrix model very well describes the lifetime statistics of long-lived resonances, provided that two effective parameters are appropriately renormalized. This renormalization is linked to the formation of short-lived resonances, a mechanism also known from the fractal Weyl law and the resonance-trapping phenomen0008.