Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites from Vacska cave, Pilis Mountains of Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Kovács, Károly; Mónus, Péter; Konecny, Pavel; Lednicka, Marketa; Novák, Attila

2017-04-01

Damaging earthquakes in central Europe are infrequent, but do occur. This raises the important issue for society of how to react to this hazard: potential damages are enormous, and infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Obtaining an unbiased expert knowledge of the seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. Seismic activity in the Pannonian Basin is moderate. In territories with low or moderate seismic activity the recurrence time of large earthquakes can be as long as 10,000 years. Therefore, we cannot draw well-grounded inferences in the field of seismic hazard assessment exclusively from the seismic data of 1,000- to 2,000-years observational period, that we have in our earthquake catalogues. Long-term information can be gained from intact and vulnerable stalagmites (IVSTM) in natural karstic caves. These fragile formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of them. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Pilis Mountains of Hungary. Evidence of historic events and of differential uplifting (incision of Danube at the River Bend and in Buda and Gerecse Hills) exists in the vicinity of investigated cave site. These observations imply that a better understanding of possible co-seismic ground motions in the nearby densely populated areas of Budapest is needed. A specially shaped (high, slim and more or less cylindrical form), intact and vulnerable stalagmites in the Vacska cave, Pilis Mountains were examined. The method of our investigation includes in-situ examination of the IVSTM and mechanical laboratory measurements of broken stalagmite samples. The used approach can yield significant new constraints on the seismic hazard of the investigated area, since tectonic structures close to Vacska cave could not have

An Empirical Method to Assess the Seismic Vulnerability of Existing Buildings Using the HVSR Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mucciarelli, M.; Contri, P.; Monachesi, G.; Calvano, G.; Gallipoli, M.

- The seismic vulnerability of existing buildings is usually estimated according to procedures based on checklists of main structural features. The relationship with damage is then assessed using experience from past events. An approach used in seismology for the evaluation of site amplification, based on horizontal-to-vertical ratio of weak motion and microtremors, has been applied to the structural field. This methodology provides an alternative, promising tool towards a quick and reliable estimate of seismic vulnerability. The advantages are:• The measurements are quick, simple and stable. They are non-invasive and do not affect at all, even temporarily, the functions housed in the buildings studied.• The site effect and the soil structure interaction are explicitly accounted for in the vulnerability estimate, when they are excluded in the traditional approaches.• The relationship with damage is established using meaningful physical parameters related to the construction technology, instead of adimensional, normalised indexes. The procedure has been applied to several case histories of buildings damaged in the recent Umbria-Marche earthquake which occurred in Italy in 1997. The same model has been applied to different structures (brick/stone masonry and infilled r.c. frames), on different geological conditions and under very different seismic loads. Using this combined site/building approach, it was possible to explain very sharp variations in the damage pattern.

Seismic vulnerability assessment to earthquake at urban scale: A case of Mostaganem city in Algeria

PubMed Central

Benanane, Abdelkader; Boutaraa, Zohra

2018-01-01

The focus of this study was the seismic vulnerability assessment of buildings constituting Mostaganem city in Algeria. Situated 320 km to the west of Algiers, Mostaganem city encompasses a valuable cultural and architectural built heritage. The city has suffered several moderate earthquakes in recent years; this has led to extensive structural damage to old structures, especially unreinforced historical buildings. This study was divided into two essential steps, the first step being to establish fragility curves based on a non-linear static pushover analysis for each typology and height of buildings. Twenty-seven pushover analyses were performed by means of SAP2000 software (three analyses for each type of building). The second step was to adopt the US HAZUS software and to modify it to suit the typical setting and parameters of the city of Mostaganem. A seismic vulnerability analysis of Mostaganem city was conducted using HAZUS software after inputting the new parameters of the fragility curves established within the first step. The results indicated that the number of poor-quality buildings expected to be totally destroyed under a 5.5 Mw earthquake scenario could reach more than 28 buildings. Three percent of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings were completely damaged and 10% were extensively damaged. Of the concrete frame buildings, 6% were extensively damaged and 19% were moderately damaged. According to the built year, 6% of both concrete frame and URM buildings built before 1980 are estimated to be collapsing. Buildings constructed between 1980 and 1999 are more resistant; 8% of those structures were extensively damaged and 18% were moderately damaged. Only 10% of buildings constructed after 1999 were moderately damaged. The results also show that the main hospital of the city, built before 1960, will be extensively damaged during an earthquake of 5.5 Mw. The number of human casualties could reach several hundreds – 10.5% of residents of URM buildings are

Seismic vulnerability of existing bridge substructures supporting the I-55 undercrossing at MS-302 (Goodman Road).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-10-01

As part of a work assignment issued by the Mississippi Department of Transportation, : Bridge Division, the following report has been prepared to document results of an : investigation of seismic vulnerability of the primary structural elements suppo...

Topological Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajodia, Sushil; Noel, Steven

Traditionally, network administrators rely on labor-intensive processes for tracking network configurations and vulnerabilities. This requires a great deal of expertise, and is error prone because of the complexity of networks and associated security data. The interdependencies of network vulnerabilities make traditional point-wise vulnerability analysis inadequate. We describe a Topological Vulnerability Analysis (TVA) approach that analyzes vulnerability dependencies and shows all possible attack paths into a network. From models of the network vulnerabilities and potential attacker exploits, we compute attack graphs that convey the impact of individual and combined vulnerabilities on overall security. TVA finds potential paths of vulnerability through a network, showing exactly how attackers may penetrate a network. From this, we identify key vulnerabilities and provide strategies for protection of critical network assets.

GIS modeling of seismic vulnerability of residential fabrics considering geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance indicators in Tehran using multi-criteria decision-making techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaie, F.; Panahi, M.

2015-03-01

The main issue in determining seismic vulnerability is having a comprehensive view of all probable damages related to earthquake occurrence. Therefore, taking into account factors such as peak ground acceleration at the time of earthquake occurrence, the type of structures, population distribution among different age groups, level of education and the physical distance to hospitals (or medical care centers) and categorizing them into four indicators of geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance to needed facilities and from dangerous ones will provide us with a better and more exact outcome. To this end, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to study the importance of criteria or alternatives and uses the geographical information system to study the vulnerability of Tehran to an earthquake. This study focuses on the fact that Tehran is surrounded by three active and major faults: Mosha, North Tehran and Rey. In order to comprehensively determine the vulnerability, three scenarios are developed. In each scenario, seismic vulnerability of different areas in Tehran is analyzed and classified into four levels: high, medium, low and safe. The results show that, regarding seismic vulnerability, the faults of Mosha, North Tehran and Rey make, respectively, 6, 16 and 10% of Tehran highly vulnerable, while 34, 14 and 27% is safe.

Seismic vulnerability and damage of Italian historical centres: A case study in the Campania region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formisano, Antonio; Chieffo, Nicola; Fabbrocino, Francesco; Landolfo, Raffaele

2017-07-01

The preservation of masonry buildings typical of Italian historical centres represents a very pressing dilemma founded on recovery need of the urban fabric original character. In the paper, based on a methodology developed by some of the Authors on building aggregates, the seismic vulnerability estimation of some masonry compounds in the heart of the town of San PotitoSannitico (Caserta, Italy) is presented and compared to the results achieved from applying the basic literature method for isolated constructions. Finally, the damage scenario of inspected buildings has been shown by highlighting clearly the influence of different positions of structural units on the damages that masonry aggregates suffer under different grade earthquakes, leading to individuate the most vulnerable buildings.

a Novel Approach to Support Majority Voting in Spatial Group Mcdm Using Density Induced Owa Operator for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moshiri, B.; Khamespanah, F.

2014-10-01

Being one of the most frightening disasters, earthquakes frequently cause huge damages to buildings, facilities and human beings. Although the prediction of characteristics of an earthquake seems to be impossible, its loss and damage is predictable in advance. Seismic loss estimation models tend to evaluate the extent to which the urban areas are vulnerable to earthquakes. Many factors contribute to the vulnerability of urban areas against earthquakes including age and height of buildings, the quality of the materials, the density of population and the location of flammable facilities. Therefore, seismic vulnerability assessment is a multi-criteria problem. A number of multi criteria decision making models have been proposed based on a single expert. The main objective of this paper is to propose a model which facilitates group multi criteria decision making based on the concept of majority voting. The main idea of majority voting is providing a computational tool to measure the degree to which different experts support each other's opinions and make a decision regarding this measure. The applicability of this model is examined in Tehran metropolitan area which is located in a seismically active region. The results indicate that neglecting the experts which get lower degrees of support from others enables the decision makers to avoid the extreme strategies. Moreover, a computational method is proposed to calculate the degree of optimism in the experts' opinions.

Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

2016-01-01

We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

GIS modelling of seismic vulnerability of residential fabrics considering geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance indicators in Tehran city using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaie, F.; Panahi, M.

2014-09-01

The main issue in determining the seismic vulnerability is having a comprehensive view to all probable damages related to earthquake occurrence. Therefore, taking factors such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the time of earthquake occurrence, the type of structures, population distribution among different age groups, level of education, the physical distance to a hospitals (or medical care centers), etc. into account and categorized under four indicators of geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance to needed facilities and distance from dangerous ones will provide us with a better and more exact outcome. To this end in this paper using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the amount of importance of criteria or alternatives are determined and using geographical information system (GIS), the vulnerability of Tehran metropolitan as a result of an earthquake, is studied. This study focuses on the fact that Tehran is surrounded by three active and major faults of the Mosha, North Tehran and Rey. In order to comprehensively determine the vulnerability, three scenarios are developed. In each scenario, seismic vulnerability of different areas in Tehran city is analysed and classified into four levels including high, medium, low and safe. The results show that regarding seismic vulnerability, the faults of Mosha, North Tehran and Rey respectively make 6, 16 and 10% of Tehran area highly vulnerable and also 34, 14 and 27% are safe.

Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens.

PubMed

Sapountzaki, Kalliopi

2005-06-01

This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures (economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the 'sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability.

Automated Software Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sezer, Emre C.; Kil, Chongkyung; Ning, Peng

Despite decades of research, software continues to have vulnerabilities. Successful exploitations of these vulnerabilities by attackers cost millions of dollars to businesses and individuals. Unfortunately, most effective defensive measures, such as patching and intrusion prevention systems, require an intimate knowledge of the vulnerabilities. Many systems for detecting attacks have been proposed. However, the analysis of the exploited vulnerabilities is left to security experts and programmers. Both the human effortinvolved and the slow analysis process are unfavorable for timely defensive measure to be deployed. The problem is exacerbated by zero-day attacks.

Comparison among different retrofitting strategies for the vulnerability reduction of masonry bell towers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Gabriele; Shehu, Rafael; Valente, Marco

2017-11-01

This paper investigates the effectiveness of reducing the seismic vulnerability of masonry towers by means of innovative and traditional strengthening techniques. The followed strategy for providing the optimal retrofitting for masonry towers subjected to seismic risk relies on preventing active failure mechanisms. These vulnerable mechanisms are pre-assigned failure patterns based on the crack patterns experienced during the past seismic events. An upper bound limit analysis strategy is found suitable to be applied for simplified tower models in their present state and the proposed retrofitted ones. Taking into consideration the variability of geometrical features and the uncertainty of the strengthening techniques, Monte Carlo simulations are implemented into the limit analysis. In this framework a wide range of idealized cases are covered by the conducted analyses. The retrofitting strategies aim to increase the shear strength and the overturning load carrying capacity in order to reduce vulnerability. This methodology gives the possibility to use different materials which can fulfill the structural implementability requirements.

Seismic Risk Perception compared with seismic Risk Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Pessina, Vera; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Peruzza, Laura

2016-04-01

The communication of natural hazards and their consequences is one of the more relevant ethical issues faced by scientists. In the last years, social studies have provided evidence that risk communication is strongly influenced by the risk perception of people. In order to develop effective information and risk communication strategies, the perception of risks and the influencing factors should be known. A theory that offers an integrative approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing. To explain risk perception, it is necessary to consider several perspectives: social, psychological and cultural perspectives and their interactions. This paper presents the results of the CATI survey on seismic risk perception in Italy, conducted by INGV researchers on funding by the DPC. We built a questionnaire to assess seismic risk perception, with a particular attention to compare hazard, vulnerability and exposure perception with the real data of the same factors. The Seismic Risk Perception Questionnaire (SRP-Q) is designed by semantic differential method, using opposite terms on a Likert scale to seven points. The questionnaire allows to obtain the scores of five risk indicators: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, People and Community, Earthquake Phenomenon. The questionnaire was administered by telephone interview (C.A.T.I.) on a statistical sample at national level of over 4,000 people, in the period January -February 2015. Results show that risk perception seems be underestimated for all indicators considered. In particular scores of seismic Vulnerability factor are extremely low compared with house information data of the respondents. Other data collected by the questionnaire regard Earthquake information level, Sources of information, Earthquake occurrence with respect to other natural hazards, participation at risk reduction activities and level of involvement. Research on risk perception aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by

Seismic Analysis Capability in NASTRAN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, T. G.; Strang, R. F.

1984-01-01

Seismic analysis is a technique which pertains to loading described in terms of boundary accelerations. Earthquake shocks to buildings is the type of excitation which usually comes to mind when one hears the word seismic, but this technique also applied to a broad class of acceleration excitations which are applied at the base of a structure such as vibration shaker testing or shocks to machinery foundations. Four different solution paths are available in NASTRAN for seismic analysis. They are: Direct Seismic Frequency Response, Direct Seismic Transient Response, Modal Seismic Frequency Response, and Modal Seismic Transient Response. This capability, at present, is invoked not as separate rigid formats, but as pre-packaged ALTER packets to existing RIGID Formats 8, 9, 11, and 12. These ALTER packets are included with the delivery of the NASTRAN program and are stored on the computer as a library of callable utilities. The user calls one of these utilities and merges it into the Executive Control Section of the data deck to perform any of the four options are invoked by setting parameter values in the bulk data.

An interdisciplinary perspective on social and physical determinants of seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, K.-H.; Chang, Y.-C.; Liu, G.-Y.; Chan, C.-H.; Lin, T.-H.; Yeh, C.-H.

2015-01-01

While disaster studies researchers usually view risk as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, few studies have systematically examined the relationships among the various physical and socioeconomic determinants underlying disasters, and fewer have done so through seismic risk analysis. In the context of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, this study constructs five hypothetical models to test different determinants that affect disaster fatality at the village level, namely seismic hazard intensity, population, building fragility, demographics and socioeconomics. The Poisson Regression Model is used to estimate the impact of natural hazards and social factors on fatality. Results indicate that although all of the determinants have an impact on the specific dimension of seismic fatality, some indicators of social inequality, such as gender ratio, dependency ratio, income and its SD, are the driving determinants deteriorating vulnerability to seismic risk. These findings have strong social implications for policy interventions to mitigate such disasters. This study presents an interdisciplinary investigation into social and physical determinants in seismic risk.

Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

2017-05-01

Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

The application of seismic risk-benefit analysis to land use planning in Taipei City.

PubMed

Hung, Hung-Chih; Chen, Liang-Chun

2007-09-01

In the developing countries of Asia local authorities rarely use risk analysis instruments as a decision-making support mechanism during planning and development procedures. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology to enable planners to undertake such analyses. We illustrate a case study of seismic risk-benefit analysis for the city of Taipei, Taiwan, using available land use maps and surveys as well as a new tool developed by the National Science Council in Taiwan--the HAZ-Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system. We use three hypothetical earthquakes to estimate casualties and total and annualised direct economic losses, and to show their spatial distribution. We also characterise the distribution of vulnerability over the study area using cluster analysis. A risk-benefit ratio is calculated to express the levels of seismic risk attached to alternative land use plans. This paper suggests ways to perform earthquake risk evaluations and the authors intend to assist city planners to evaluate the appropriateness of their planning decisions.

Metadata for selecting or submitting generic seismic vulnerability functions via GEM's vulnerability database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jaiswal, Kishor

2013-01-01

This memo lays out a procedure for the GEM software to offer an available vulnerability function for any acceptable set of attributes that the user specifies for a particular building category. The memo also provides general guidelines on how to submit the vulnerability or fragility functions to the GEM vulnerability repository, stipulating which attributes modelers must provide so that their vulnerability or fragility functions can be queried appropriately by the vulnerability database. An important objective is to provide users guidance on limitations and applicability by providing the associated modeling assumptions and applicability of each vulnerability or fragility function.

A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2001-01-01

A review of the scientific issues relevant to characterizing earthquake sources in the New Madrid seismic zone has led to the development of a logic tree of possible alternative parameters. A variability analysis, using Monte Carlo sampling of this consensus logic tree, is presented and discussed. The analysis shows that for 2%-exceedence-in-50-year hazard, the best-estimate seismic hazard map is similar to previously published seismic hazard maps for the area. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s (0.2 and 1.0 s Sa), the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the knowledge-based uncertainty in seismic hazard can exceed 0.6 over the New Madrid seismic zone and diminishes to about 0.1 away from areas of seismic activity. Sensitivity analyses show that the largest contributor to PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 s Sa seismic hazard variability is the uncertainty in the location of future 1811-1812 New Madrid sized earthquakes. This is followed by the variability due to the choice of ground motion attenuation relation, the magnitude for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, and the recurrence interval for M>6.5 events. Seismic hazard is not very sensitive to the variability in seismogenic width and length. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Seismic vulnerability of new highway construction, executive summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

This executive summary gives an overview of the results of FHWA Contract DTFH61-92-C-00112, Seismic Research Program, : which performed a series of special studies addressing the seismic design of new construction. The objectives of this project : we...

Seismic Vulnerability of New Highway Construction, Executive Summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-03-01

This executive summary gives an overview of the results of FHWA Contract DTFH61-92-C-00112, Seismic Research Program, which performed a series of special studies addressing the seismic design of new construction. The objectives of this project were t...

Development of hazard-compatible building fragility and vulnerability models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karaca, E.; Luco, N.

2008-01-01

We present a methodology for transforming the structural and non-structural fragility functions in HAZUS into a format that is compatible with conventional seismic hazard analysis information. The methodology makes use of the building capacity (or pushover) curves and related building parameters provided in HAZUS. Instead of the capacity spectrum method applied in HAZUS, building response is estimated by inelastic response history analysis of corresponding single-degree-of-freedom systems under a large number of earthquake records. Statistics of the building response are used with the damage state definitions from HAZUS to derive fragility models conditioned on spectral acceleration values. Using the developed fragility models for structural and nonstructural building components, with corresponding damage state loss ratios from HAZUS, we also derive building vulnerability models relating spectral acceleration to repair costs. Whereas in HAZUS the structural and nonstructural damage states are treated as if they are independent, our vulnerability models are derived assuming "complete" nonstructural damage whenever the structural damage state is complete. We show the effects of considering this dependence on the final vulnerability models. The use of spectral acceleration (at selected vibration periods) as the ground motion intensity parameter, coupled with the careful treatment of uncertainty, makes the new fragility and vulnerability models compatible with conventional seismic hazard curves and hence useful for extensions to probabilistic damage and loss assessment.

Multiple perspective vulnerability analysis of the power network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na

2018-02-01

To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, Jens-Uwe

2008-05-01

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies. Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design

Comparative seismic evaluation between numerical analysis and Italian guidelines on cultural heritage applied to the case study of a masonry building compound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formisano, Antonio; Chiumiento, Giovanni; Fabbrocino, Francesco; Landolfo, Raffaele

2017-07-01

The general objective of the work is to draw attention to the issue of seismic vulnerability analysis of masonry building compounds, which characterise most of the Italian historic towns. The study is based on the analysis of an aggregated construction falling in the town of Arsita (Teramo, Italy) damaged after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. A comparison between the seismic verifications carried out by using the 3Muri commercial software and those deriving from the application of the Italian Guidelines on Cultural Heritage has been performed. The comparison has shown that Guidelines provide results on the safe side in predicting the seismic behaviour of the building compound under study. Further analyses should be performed aiming at suggesting some modifications of the used simplified calculation method to better interpret the behaviour of building compounds under earthquake.

Microzonation of seismic risk in a low-rise Latin American city based on the macroseismic evaluation of the vulnerability of residential buildings: Colima city, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobin, V. M.; Cruz-Bravo, A. A.; Ventura-Ramírez, F.

2010-06-01

A macroseismic methodology of seismic risk microzonation in a low-rise city based on the vulnerability of residential buildings is proposed and applied to Colima city, Mexico. The seismic risk microzonation for Colima consists of two elements: the mapping of residential blocks according to their vulnerability level and the calculation of an expert-opinion based damage probability matrix (DPM) for a given level of earthquake intensity and a given type of residential block. A specified exposure time to the seismic risk for this zonation is equal to the interval between two destructive earthquakes. The damage probability matrices were calculated for three types of urban buildings and five types of residential blocks in Colima. It was shown that only 9% of 1409 residential blocks are able to resist to the Modify Mercalli (MM) intensity VII and VIII earthquakes without significant damage. The proposed DPM-2007 is in good accordance with the experimental damage curves based on the macroseismic evaluation of 3332 residential buildings in Colima that was carried out after the 21 January 2003 intensity MM VII earthquake. This methodology and the calculated PDM-2007 curves may be applied also to seismic risk microzonation for many low-rise cities in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

Geomorphology and seismic risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panizza, Mario

1991-07-01

The author analyses the contributions provided by geomorphology in studies suited to the assessment of seismic risk: this is defined as function of the seismic hazard, of the seismic susceptibility, and of the vulnerability. The geomorphological studies applicable to seismic risk assessment can be divided into two sectors: (a) morpho-neotectonic investigations conducted to identify active tectonic structures; (b) geomorphological and morphometric analyses aimed at identifying the particular situations that amplify or reduce seismic susceptibility. The morpho-neotectonic studies lead to the identification, selection and classification of the lineaments that can be linked with active tectonic structures. The most important geomorphological situations that can condition seismic susceptibility are: slope angle, debris, morphology, degradational slopes, paleo-landslides and underground cavities.

Spatial Temporal Analysis Of Mine-induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotova, I. V.; Yunga, S. L.

The results of analysis of influence mine-induced seismicity on state of stress of a rock mass are represented. The spatial-temporal analysis of influence of mass explosions on rock massif deformation is carried out in the territory of a mine field Yukspor of a wing of the Joined Kirovsk mine JSC "Apatite". Estimation of influence of mass explosions on a massif were determined based firstly on the parameters of natural seismicic regime, and secondly taking into consideration change of seismic energy release. After long series of explosions variations in average number of seismic events was fixed. Is proved, that with increase of a volume of rocks, involved in a deforma- tion the released energy of seismic events, and characteristic intervals of time of their preparation are also varied. At the same time, the mechanism of destruction changes also: from destruction's, of a type shift - separation before destruction's, in a quasi- solid heterogeneous massif (in oxidized zones and zones of actuated faults). Analysis of a database seismicity of a massif from 1993 to 1999 years has confirmed, that the response of a massif on explosions is connected to stress-deformations state a mas- sif and parameters of a mining working. The analysis of spatial-temporal distribution of hypocenters of seismic events has allowed to allocate migration of fissile regions of destruction after mass explosions. The researches are executed at support of the Russian foundation for basic research, - projects 00-05-64758, 01-05-65340.

A GIS approach to seismic risk assessment with an application to mining-related seismicity in Johannesburg, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebenberg, Keagen; Smit, Ansie; Coetzee, Serena; Kijko, Andrzej

2017-08-01

The majority of seismic activity in South Africa is related to extensive mining operations, usually in close proximity to densely populated areas where a relatively weak seismic event could cause damage. Despite a significant decrease in mining operations in the Witwatersrand area, the number of seismic events appears to be increasing and is attributed to the acid mine drainage problem. The increased seismicity is raising concern amongst disaster management centres and in the insurance industry. A better understanding is required of the vulnerability and the size of the potential loss of people and infrastructure in densely populated Johannesburg and its surrounding areas. Results of a deterministic seismic risk, vulnerability, and loss assessment are presented by making use of a geographic information system (GIS). The results illustrate the benefits of using GIS and contribute to a better understanding of the risk, which can assist in improving disaster preparedness.

Seismic fragility analysis of typical pre-1990 bridges due to near- and far-field ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosleh, Araliya; Razzaghi, Mehran S.; Jara, José; Varum, Humberto

2016-03-01

Bridge damages during the past earthquakes caused several physical and economic impacts to transportation systems. Many of the existing bridges in earthquake prone areas are pre-1990 bridges and were designed with out of date regulation codes. The occurrences of strong motions in different parts of the world show every year the vulnerability of these structures. Nonlinear dynamic time history analyses were conducted to assess the seismic vulnerability of typical pre-1990 bridges. A family of existing concrete bridge representative of the most common bridges in the highway system in Iran is studied. The seismic demand consists in a set of far-field and near-field strong motions to evaluate the likelihood of exceeding the seismic capacity of the mentioned bridges. The peak ground accelerations (PGAs) were scaled and applied incrementally to the 3D models to evaluate the seismic performance of the bridges. The superstructure was assumed to remain elastic and the nonlinear behavior in piers was modeled by assigning plastic hinges in columns. In this study the displacement ductility and the PGA are selected as a seismic performance indicator and intensity measure, respectively. The results show that pre-1990 bridges subjected to near-fault ground motions reach minor and moderate damage states.

Analytical and Experimental Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability of Beam-Column Joints without Transverse Reinforcement in Concrete Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Wael Mohammed

Beam-column joints in concrete buildings are key components to ensure structural integrity of building performance under seismic loading. Earthquake reconnaissance has reported the substantial damage that can result from inadequate beam-column joints. In some cases, failure of older-type corner joints appears to have led to building collapse. Since the 1960s, many advances have been made to improve seismic performance of building components, including beam-column joints. New design and detailing approaches are expected to produce new construction that will perform satisfactorily during strong earthquake shaking. Much less attention has been focused on beam-column joints of older construction that may be seismically vulnerable. Concrete buildings constructed prior to developing details for ductility in the 1970s normally lack joint transverse reinforcement. The available literature concerning the performance of such joints is relatively limited, but concerns about performance exist. The current study aimed to improve understanding and assessment of seismic performance of unconfined exterior and corner beam-column joints in existing buildings. An extensive literature survey was performed, leading to development of a database of about a hundred tests. Study of the data enabled identification of the most important parameters and the effect of each parameter on the seismic performance. The available analytical models and guidelines for strength and deformability assessment of unconfined joints were surveyed and evaluated. In particular, The ASCE 41 existing building document proved to be substantially conservative in joint shear strength estimation. Upon identifying deficiencies in these models, two new joint shear strength models, a bond capacity model, and two axial capacity models designed and tailored specifically for unconfined beam-column joints were developed. The proposed models strongly correlated with previous test results. In the laboratory testing phase of

Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

2008-07-08

The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severemore » damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.« less

Seismic and Restoration Assessment of Monumental Masonry Structures

PubMed Central

Asteris, Panagiotis G.; Douvika, Maria G.; Apostolopoulou, Maria; Moropoulou, Antonia

2017-01-01

Masonry structures are complex systems that require detailed knowledge and information regarding their response under seismic excitations. Appropriate modelling of a masonry structure is a prerequisite for a reliable earthquake-resistant design and/or assessment. However, modelling a real structure with a robust quantitative (mathematical) representation is a very difficult, complex and computationally-demanding task. The paper herein presents a new stochastic computational framework for earthquake-resistant design of masonry structural systems. The proposed framework is based on the probabilistic behavior of crucial parameters, such as material strength and seismic characteristics, and utilizes fragility analysis based on different failure criteria for the masonry material. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated in the case of a historical and monumental masonry structure, namely the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the Kaisariani Monastery, a byzantine church that was built in Athens, Greece, at the end of the 11th to the beginning of the 12th century. Useful conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of the intervention techniques used for the reduction of the vulnerability of the case-study structure, by means of comparison of the results obtained. PMID:28767073

Seismic and Restoration Assessment of Monumental Masonry Structures.

PubMed

Asteris, Panagiotis G; Douvika, Maria G; Apostolopoulou, Maria; Moropoulou, Antonia

2017-08-02

Masonry structures are complex systems that require detailed knowledge and information regarding their response under seismic excitations. Appropriate modelling of a masonry structure is a prerequisite for a reliable earthquake-resistant design and/or assessment. However, modelling a real structure with a robust quantitative (mathematical) representation is a very difficult, complex and computationally-demanding task. The paper herein presents a new stochastic computational framework for earthquake-resistant design of masonry structural systems. The proposed framework is based on the probabilistic behavior of crucial parameters, such as material strength and seismic characteristics, and utilizes fragility analysis based on different failure criteria for the masonry material. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated in the case of a historical and monumental masonry structure, namely the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the Kaisariani Monastery, a byzantine church that was built in Athens, Greece, at the end of the 11th to the beginning of the 12th century. Useful conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of the intervention techniques used for the reduction of the vulnerability of the case-study structure, by means of comparison of the results obtained.

Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

2009-04-01

The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

Fast principal component analysis for stacking seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Juan; Bai, Min

2018-04-01

Stacking seismic data plays an indispensable role in many steps of the seismic data processing and imaging workflow. Optimal stacking of seismic data can help mitigate seismic noise and enhance the principal components to a great extent. Traditional average-based seismic stacking methods cannot obtain optimal performance when the ambient noise is extremely strong. We propose a principal component analysis (PCA) algorithm for stacking seismic data without being sensitive to noise level. Considering the computational bottleneck of the classic PCA algorithm in processing massive seismic data, we propose an efficient PCA algorithm to make the proposed method readily applicable for industrial applications. Two numerically designed examples and one real seismic data are used to demonstrate the performance of the presented method.

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites for the surroundings of Katerloch cave, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Mónus, Péter; Kovács, Károly; Kalmár, János

2016-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. This raises the important issue for society, how to react to the natural hazard: potential damages are huge, and infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is very important therefore. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce the PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Such information would be very valuable, even if it concerned only a single site. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact stalagmites in natural karstic caves. These have survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that period. We are focusing here on a case study from the Katerloch cave close to the city of Graz, Austria. A specially-shaped (candle stick style: high, slim, and more or less cylindrical form) intact and vulnerable stalagmites (IVSTM) in the Katerloch cave has been examined in 2013 and 2014. This IVSTM is suitable for estimating the upper limit for horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by pre-historic earthquakes. For this cave, we have extensive information about ages (e.g., Boch et al., 2006, 2010). The approach, used in our study, yields significant new constraints on seismic hazard, as the intactness of the stalagmites suggests that tectonic structures close to Katerloch cave, i.p. the Mur-Mürz fault did not generate very strong paleoearthquakes in the last few thousand years

Study on vulnerability matrices of masonry buildings of mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Baitao; Zhang, Guixin

2018-04-01

The degree and distribution of damage to buildings subjected to earthquakes is a concern of the Chinese Government and the public. Seismic damage data indicates that seismic capacities of different types of building structures in various regions throughout mainland China are different. Furthermore, the seismic capacities of the same type of structure in different regions may vary. The contributions of this research are summarized as follows: 1) Vulnerability matrices and earthquake damage matrices of masonry structures in mainland China were chosen as research samples. The aim was to analyze the differences in seismic capacities of sample matrices and to present general rules for categorizing seismic resistance. 2) Curves relating the percentage of damaged masonry structures with different seismic resistances subjected to seismic demand in different regions of seismic intensity (VI to X) have been developed. 3) A method has been proposed to build vulnerability matrices of masonry structures. The damage ratio for masonry structures under high-intensity events such as the Ms 6.1 Panzhihua earthquake in Sichuan province on 30 August 2008, was calculated to verify the applicability of this method. This research offers a significant theoretical basis for predicting seismic damage and direct loss assessment of groups of buildings, as well as for earthquake disaster insurance.

Seismic Hazard Analysis as a Controlling Technique of Induced Seismicity in Geothermal Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Convertito, V.; Sharma, N.; Maercklin, N.; Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.

2011-12-01

The effect of induced seismicity of geothermal systems during stimulation and fluid circulation can cover a wide range of values from light and unfelt to severe and damaging. If the design of a modern geothermal system requires the largest efficiency to be obtained from the social point of view it is required that the system could be managed in order to reduce possible impact in advance. In this framework, automatic control of the seismic response of the stimulated reservoir is nowadays mandatory, particularly in proximity of densely populated areas. Recently, techniques have been proposed for this purpose mainly based on the concept of the traffic light. This system provides a tool to decide the level of stimulation rate based on the real-time analysis of the induced seismicity and the ongoing ground motion values. However, in some cases the induced effect can be delayed with respect to the time when the reservoir is stimulated. Thus, a controlling system technique able to estimate the ground motion levels for different time scales can help to better control the geothermal system. Here we present an adaptation of the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to the case where the seismicity rate as well as the propagation medium properties are not constant with time. We use a non-homogeneous seismicity model for modeling purposes, in which the seismicity rate and b-value of the recurrence relationship change with time. Additionally, as a further controlling procedure, we propose a moving time window analysis of the recorded peak ground-motion values aimed at monitoring the changes in the propagation medium. In fact, for the same set of magnitude values recorded at the same stations, we expect that on average peak ground motion values attenuate in same way. As a consequence, the residual differences can be reasonably ascribed to changes in medium properties. These changes can be modeled and directly introduced in the hazard integral. We applied the proposed

Detailed seismic evaluation of bridges along I-24 in Western Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-09-01

This report presents a seismic rating system and a detailed evaluation procedure for selected highway bridges on/over I-24 in Western Kentucky near the New Madrid Seismic Zone (MNSZ). The rating system, based upon structural vulnerability, seismic an...

The Use of GIS for the Application of the Phenomenological Approach to the Seismic Risk Analysis: the Case of the Italian Fortified Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenticchia, E.; Coïsson, E.

2017-05-01

The present paper proposes the use of GIS for the application of the so-called phenomenological approach to the analysis of the seismic behaviour of historical buildings. This approach is based on the awareness that the different masonry building typologies are characterized by different, recurring vulnerabilities. Thus, the observation and classification of the real damage is seen as the first step for recognizing and classifying these vulnerabilities, in order to plan focused preventive interventions. For these purposes, the GIS has proven to be a powerful instrument to collect and manage this type of information on a large number of cases. This paper specifically focuses on the application of the phenomenological approach to the analysis of the seismic behaviour of fortified buildings, including castles, fortresses, citadels, and all the typical historical constructions characterized by the presence of massive towers and defensive walls. The main earthquakes which struck Italy in the last 40 years (up to the recent Central Italy seismic swarm) were taken into consideration and described by means of shake maps. A previously published work has been continued with the addition of new data and some improvements, including a specific symbology for the description of building typologies and conservation status on the maps, the indications of damage levels and the comparison between shake maps in terms of pga and in terms of pseudo-acceleration. The increase in knowledge obtained and the broader frame given by the analysis of the data are here directed to the primary aim of cultural heritage preservation.

Rethinking vulnerability analysis and governance with emphasis on a participatory approach.

PubMed

Rossignol, Nicolas; Delvenne, Pierre; Turcanu, Catrinel

2015-01-01

This article draws on vulnerability analysis as it emerged as a complement to classical risk analysis, and it aims at exploring its ability for nurturing risk and vulnerability governance actions. An analysis of the literature on vulnerability analysis allows us to formulate a three-fold critique: first, vulnerability analysis has been treated separately in the natural and the technological hazards fields. This separation prevents vulnerability from unleashing the full range of its potential, as it constrains appraisals into artificial categories and thus already closes down the outcomes of the analysis. Second, vulnerability analysis focused on assessment tools that are mainly quantitative, whereas qualitative appraisal is a key to assessing vulnerability in a comprehensive way and to informing policy making. Third, a systematic literature review of case studies reporting on participatory approaches to vulnerability analysis allows us to argue that participation has been important to address the above, but it remains too closed down in its approach and would benefit from embracing a more open, encompassing perspective. Therefore, we suggest rethinking vulnerability analysis as one part of a dynamic process between opening-up and closing-down strategies, in order to support a vulnerability governance framework. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Open Source Tools for Seismicity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powers, P.

2010-12-01

The spatio-temporal analysis of seismicity plays an important role in earthquake forecasting and is integral to research on earthquake interactions and triggering. For instance, the third version of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), currently under development, will use Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) as a model for earthquake triggering. UCERF will be a "living" model and therefore requires robust, tested, and well-documented ETAS algorithms to ensure transparency and reproducibility. Likewise, as earthquake aftershock sequences unfold, real-time access to high quality hypocenter data makes it possible to monitor the temporal variability of statistical properties such as the parameters of the Omori Law and the Gutenberg Richter b-value. Such statistical properties are valuable as they provide a measure of how much a particular sequence deviates from expected behavior and can be used when assigning probabilities of aftershock occurrence. To address these demands and provide public access to standard methods employed in statistical seismology, we present well-documented, open-source JavaScript and Java software libraries for the on- and off-line analysis of seismicity. The Javascript classes facilitate web-based asynchronous access to earthquake catalog data and provide a framework for in-browser display, analysis, and manipulation of catalog statistics; implementations of this framework will be made available on the USGS Earthquake Hazards website. The Java classes, in addition to providing tools for seismicity analysis, provide tools for modeling seismicity and generating synthetic catalogs. These tools are extensible and will be released as part of the open-source OpenSHA Commons library.

Effects of Irregular Bridge Columns and Feasibility of Seismic Regularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Abey E.

2018-05-01

Bridges with unequal column height is one of the main irregularities in bridge design particularly while negotiating steep valleys, making the bridges vulnerable to seismic action. The desirable behaviour of bridge columns towards seismic loading is that, they should perform in a regular fashion, i.e. the capacity of each column should be utilized evenly. But, this type of behaviour is often missing when the column heights are unequal along the length of the bridge, allowing short columns to bear the maximum lateral load. In the present study, the effects of unequal column height on the global seismic performance of bridges are studied using pushover analysis. Codes such as CalTrans (Engineering service center, earthquake engineering branch, 2013) and EC-8 (EN 1998-2: design of structures for earthquake resistance. Part 2: bridges, European Committee for Standardization, Brussels, 2005) suggests seismic regularity criterion for achieving regular seismic performance level at all the bridge columns. The feasibility of adopting these seismic regularity criterions along with those mentioned in literatures will be assessed for bridges designed as per the Indian Standards in the present study.

Rescaled Range analysis of Induced Seismicity: rapid classification of clusters in seismic crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejar-Pizarro, M.; Perez Lopez, R.; Benito-Parejo, M.; Guardiola-Albert, C.; Herraiz, M.

2017-12-01

Different underground fluid operations, mainly gas storing, fracking and water pumping, can trigger Induced Seismicity (IS). This seismicity is normally featured by small-sized earthquakes (M<2.5), although particular cases reach magnitude as great as 5. It has been up for debate whether earthquakes greater than 5 can be triggered by IS or this level of magnitude only corresponds to tectonic earthquakes caused by stress change. Whatever the case, the characterization of IS for seismic clusters and seismic series recorded close but not into the gas storage, is still under discussion. Time-series of earthquakes obey non-linear patterns where the Hurst exponent describes the persistency or anti-persistency of the sequence. Natural seismic sequences have an H-exponent close to 0.7, which combined with the b-value time evolution during the time clusters, give us valuable information about the stationarity of the phenomena. Tectonic earthquakes consist in a main shock with a decay of time-occurrence of seismic shocks obeying the Omori's empirical law. On the contrary, IS does not exhibit a main shock and the time occurrence depends on the injection operations instead of on the tectonic energy released. In this context, the H-exponent can give information about the origin of the sequence. In 2013, a seismic crisis was declared from the Castor underground gas storing located off-shore in the Mediterranean Sea, close to the Northeastern Spanish cost. The greatest induced earthquake was 3.7. However, a 4.2 earthquake, probably of tectonic origin, occurred few days after the operations stopped. In this work, we have compared the H-exponent and the b-value time evolution according to the timeline of gas injection. Moreover, we have divided the seismic sequence into two groups: (1) Induced Seismicity and (2) Triggered Seismicity. The rescaled range analysis allows the differentiation between natural and induced seismicity and gives information about the persistency and long

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

Seismic evaluation of vulnerability for SAMA educational buildings in Tehran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amini, Omid Nassiri; Amiri, Javad Vaseghi

2008-07-08

Earthquake is a destructive phenomenon that trembles different parts of the earth yearly and causes many destructions. Iran is one of the (high seismicity) quack- prone parts of the world that has received a lot of pecuniary damages and life losses each year, schools are of the most important places to be protected during such crisis.There was no special surveillance on designing and building of school's building in Tehran till the late 70's, and as Tehran is on faults, instability of such buildings may cause irrecoverable pecuniary damages and especially life losses, therefore preventing this phenomenon is in an urgentmore » need.For this purpose, some of the schools built during 67-78 mostly with Steel braced frame structures have been selected, first, by evaluating the selected Samples, gathering information and Visual Survey, the prepared questionnaires were filled out. With the use of ARIA and SABA (Venezuela) Methods, new modified combined method for qualified evaluations was found and used.Then, for quantified evaluation, with the use of computer 3D models and nonlinear statically analysis methods, a number of selected buildings of qualified evaluation, were reevaluated and finally with nonlinear dynamic analysis method the real behavior of structures on the earthquakes is studied.The results of qualified and quantified evaluations were compared and a proper Pattern for seismic evaluation of Educational buildings was presented. Otherwise the results can be a guidance for the person in charge of retrofitting or if necessary rebuilding the schools.« less

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Preliminary seismic evaluation and ranking of bridges along I-24 in Western Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-09-01

This study represents one of the Seismic Evaluation of I-24 Bridges investigative series. The focus is on preliminary seismic evaluation and ranking of bridges according to their seismic vulnerability. Bridges along I-24 are considered in this invest...

Evaluation of socio-spatial vulnerability of citydwellers and analysis of risk perception: industrial and seismic risks in Mulhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glatron, S.; Beck, E.

2008-10-01

Social vulnerability has been studied for years with sociological, psychological and economical approaches. Our proposition focuses on perception and cognitive representations of risks by city dwellers living in a medium size urban area, namely Mulhouse (France). Perception, being part of the social vulnerability and resilience of the society to disasters, influences the potential damage; for example it leads to adequate or inadequate behaviour in the case of an emergency. As geographers, we assume that the spatial relationship to danger or hazard can be an important factor of vulnerability and we feel that the spatial dimension is a challenging question either for better knowledge or for operational reasons (e.g. management of preventive information). We interviewed 491 people, inhabitants and workers, regularly distributed within the urban area to get to know their opinion on hazards and security measures better. We designed and mapped a vulnerability index on the basis of their answers. The results show that the social vulnerability depends on the type of hazard, and that the distance to the source of danger influences the vulnerability, especially for hazards with a precise location (industrial for example). Moreover, the effectiveness of the information campaigns is doubtful, as the people living close to hazardous industries (target of specific preventive information) are surprisingly more vulnerable and less aware of industrial risk.

Kernel Smoothing Methods for Non-Poissonian Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

For almost fifty years, the mainstay of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been the methodology developed by Cornell, which assumes that earthquake occurrence is a Poisson process, and that the spatial distribution of epicentres can be represented by a set of polygonal source zones, within which seismicity is uniform. Based on Vere-Jones' use of kernel smoothing methods for earthquake forecasting, these methods were adapted in 1994 by the author for application to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. There is no need for ambiguous boundaries of polygonal source zones, nor for the hypothesis of time independence of earthquake sequences. In Europe, there are many regions where seismotectonic zones are not well delineated, and where there is a dynamic stress interaction between events, so that they cannot be described as independent. From the Amatrice earthquake of 24 August, 2016, the subsequent damaging earthquakes in Central Italy over months were not independent events. Removing foreshocks and aftershocks is not only an ill-defined task, it has a material effect on seismic hazard computation. Because of the spatial dispersion of epicentres, and the clustering of magnitudes for the largest events in a sequence, which might all be around magnitude 6, the specific event causing the highest ground motion can vary from one site location to another. Where significant active faults have been clearly identified geologically, they should be modelled as individual seismic sources. The remaining background seismicity should be modelled as non-Poissonian using statistical kernel smoothing methods. This approach was first applied for seismic hazard analysis at a UK nuclear power plant two decades ago, and should be included within logic-trees for future probabilistic seismic hazard at critical installations within Europe. In this paper, various salient European applications are given.

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

How to simulate pedestrian behaviors in seismic evacuation for vulnerability reduction of existing buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quagliarini, Enrico; Bernardini, Gabriele; D'Orazio, Marco

2017-07-01

Understanding and representing how individuals behave in earthquake emergencies would be essentially to assess the impact of vulnerability reduction strategies on existing buildings in seismic areas. In fact, interactions between individuals and the scenario (modified by the earthquake occurrence) are really important in order to understand the possible additional risks for people, especially during the evacuation phase. The current approach is based on "qualitative" aspects, in order to define best practice guidelines for Civil Protection and populations. On the contrary, a "quantitative" description of human response and evacuation motion in similar conditions is urgently needed. Hence, this work defines the rules for pedestrians' earthquake evacuation in urban scenarios, by taking advantages of previous results of real-world evacuation analyses. In particular, motion laws for pedestrians is defined by modifying the Social Force model equation. The proposed model could be used for evaluating individuals' evacuation process and so for defining operative strategies for interferences reduction in critical urban fabric parts (e.g.: interventions on particular buildings, evacuation strategies definition, city parts projects).

Constraints on Long-Term Seismic Hazard From Vulnerable Stalagmites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Mónus, Péter; Kovács, Károly; Konecny, Pavel; Lednicka, Marketa; Bednárik, Martin; Brimich, Ladislav

2015-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. This raises the important issue for society, how to react to the natural hazard: potential damages are huge, but infrastructure costs for addressing these hazards are huge as well. Furthermore, seismic hazard is only one of the many hazards facing society. Societal means need to be distributed in a reasonable manner - to assure that all of these hazards (natural as well as societal) are addressed appropriately. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is very important therefore. In principle, the best way to test PSHA models is to compare with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce the PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occuring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle - if that exists. Such information would be very valuable, even if it concerned only a single site, namely that of a particularly sensitive infrastructure. Such a request may seem hopeless - but it is not. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These have survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that period. We are focusing here on case studies in Austria, which has moderate seismicity, but a well-documented history of major earthquake-induced damage, e.g., Villach in 1348 and 1690, Vienna in 1590, Leoben in 1794, and Innsbruck in 1551, 1572, and 1589. Seismic intensities have reached levels up to 10. It is clearly important to know which "worst-case" damages to expect. We have identified sets of particularly sensitive stalagmites in the general vicinity of two major cities in

Measuring Road Network Vulnerability with Sensitivity Analysis

PubMed Central

Jun-qiang, Leng; Long-hai, Yang; Liu, Wei-yi; Zhao, Lin

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of a method for road network vulnerability analysis, from the perspective of capacity degradation, which seeks to identify the critical infrastructures in the road network and the operational performance of the whole traffic system. This research involves defining the traffic utility index and modeling vulnerability of road segment, route, OD (Origin Destination) pair and road network. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis method is utilized to calculate the change of traffic utility index due to capacity degradation. This method, compared to traditional traffic assignment, can improve calculation efficiency and make the application of vulnerability analysis to large actual road network possible. Finally, all the above models and calculation method is applied to actual road network evaluation to verify its efficiency and utility. This approach can be used as a decision-supporting tool for evaluating the performance of road network and identifying critical infrastructures in transportation planning and management, especially in the resource allocation for mitigation and recovery. PMID:28125706

Probabilistic properties of injection induced seismicity - implications for the seismic hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasocki, Stanislaw; Urban, Pawel; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Martinez-Garzón, Particia

2017-04-01

Injection induced seismicity (IIS) is an undesired dynamic rockmass response to massive fluid injections. This includes reactions, among others, to hydro-fracturing for shale gas exploitation. Complexity and changeability of technological factors that induce IIS, may result in significant deviations of the observed distributions of seismic process parameters from the models, which perform well in natural, tectonic seismic processes. Classic formulations of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in natural seismicity assume the seismic marked point process to be a stationary Poisson process, whose marks - magnitudes are governed by a Gutenberg-Richter born exponential distribution. It is well known that the use of an inappropriate earthquake occurrence model and/or an inappropriate of magnitude distribution model leads to significant systematic errors of hazard estimates. It is therefore of paramount importance to check whether the mentioned, commonly used in natural seismicity assumptions on the seismic process, can be safely used in IIS hazard problems or not. Seismicity accompanying shale gas operations is widely studied in the framework of the project "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" (SHEER). Here we present results of SHEER project investigations of such seismicity from Oklahoma and of a proxy of such seismicity - IIS data from The Geysers geothermal field. We attempt to answer to the following questions: • Do IIS earthquakes follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law, so that the magnitude distribution can be modelled by an exponential distribution? • Is the occurrence process of IIS earthquakes Poissonian? Is it segmentally Poissonian? If yes, how are these segments linked to cycles of technological operations? Statistical tests indicate that the Gutenberg-Richter relation born exponential distribution model for magnitude is, in general, inappropriate. The magnitude distribution can be complex, multimodal, with no ready

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

2013-04-01

The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

Seismic facies analysis based on self-organizing map and empirical mode decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Hao-kun; Cao, Jun-xing; Xue, Ya-juan; Wang, Xing-jian

2015-01-01

Seismic facies analysis plays an important role in seismic interpretation and reservoir model building by offering an effective way to identify the changes in geofacies inter wells. The selections of input seismic attributes and their time window have an obvious effect on the validity of classification and require iterative experimentation and prior knowledge. In general, it is sensitive to noise when waveform serves as the input data to cluster analysis, especially with a narrow window. To conquer this limitation, the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method is introduced into waveform classification based on SOM. We first de-noise the seismic data using EMD and then cluster the data using 1D grid SOM. The main advantages of this method are resolution enhancement and noise reduction. 3D seismic data from the western Sichuan basin, China, are collected for validation. The application results show that seismic facies analysis can be improved and better help the interpretation. The powerful tolerance for noise makes the proposed method to be a better seismic facies analysis tool than classical 1D grid SOM method, especially for waveform cluster with a narrow window.

Seismic risk assessment of Trani's Cathedral bell tower in Apulia, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaferio, Mariella; Foti, Dora

2017-09-01

The present paper deals with the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of slender historical buildings; these structures, in fact, may manifest a high risk with respect to seismic actions as usually they have been designed to resist to gravitational loads only, and are characterized by a high flexibility. To evaluate this behavior, the bell tower of the Trani's Cathedral is investigated. The tower is 57 m tall and is characterized by an unusual building typology, i.e., the walls are composed of a concrete core coupled with external masonry stones. The dynamic parameters and the mechanical properties of the tower have been evaluated on the basis of an extensive experimental campaign that made use of ambient vibration tests and ground penetrating radar tests. Such data have been utilized to calibrate a numerical model of the examined tower. A linear static analysis, a dynamic analysis and a nonlinear static analysis have been carried out on such model to evaluate the displacement capacity of the tower and the seismic risk assessment in accordance with the Italian guidelines.

Multivariate Analysis of Seismic Field Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, M. Kathleen

1999-06-01

This report includes the details of the model building procedure and prediction of seismic field data. Principal Components Regression, a multivariate analysis technique, was used to model seismic data collected as two pieces of equipment were cycled on and off. Models built that included only the two pieces of equipment of interest had trouble predicting data containing signals not included in the model. Evidence for poor predictions came from the prediction curves as well as spectral F-ratio plots. Once the extraneous signals were included in the model, predictions improved dramatically. While Principal Components Regression performed well for the present datamore » sets, the present data analysis suggests further work will be needed to develop more robust modeling methods as the data become more complex.« less

A preliminary analysis of quantifying computer security vulnerability data in "the wild"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; McNamara, Sean R.; Goldstein, Adam; Cybenko, George

2016-05-01

A system of computers, networks and software has some level of vulnerability exposure that puts it at risk to criminal hackers. Presently, most vulnerability research uses data from software vendors, and the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). We propose an alternative path forward through grounding our analysis in data from the operational information security community, i.e. vulnerability data from "the wild". In this paper, we propose a vulnerability data parsing algorithm and an in-depth univariate and multivariate analysis of the vulnerability arrival and deletion process (also referred to as the vulnerability birth-death process). We find that vulnerability arrivals are best characterized by the log-normal distribution and vulnerability deletions are best characterized by the exponential distribution. These distributions can serve as prior probabilities for future Bayesian analysis. We also find that over 22% of the deleted vulnerability data have a rate of zero, and that the arrival vulnerability data is always greater than zero. Finally, we quantify and visualize the dependencies between vulnerability arrivals and deletions through a bivariate scatterplot and statistical observations.

A pragmatic analysis of vulnerability in clinical research.

PubMed

Wendler, David

2017-09-01

Identifying which subjects are vulnerable, and implementing safeguards to protect them, is widely regarded as essential to clinical research. Commentators have endorsed a number of responses to these challenges and have thereby made significant progress in understanding vulnerability in clinical research. At the same time, this literature points to a central contradiction which calls into question its potential to protect vulnerable subjects in practice. Specifically, analysis suggests that all human subjects are vulnerable and vulnerability in clinical research is comparative and context dependent, in the sense that individuals are vulnerable relative to others and in some contexts only. Yet, if everyone is vulnerable, there seems to be no point in citing the vulnerability of some individuals. Moreover, the conclusion that everyone is vulnerable seems inconsistent with the claims that vulnerability is comparative and context dependent, raising concern over whether it will be possible to develop a comprehensive account of vulnerability that is internally consistent. The solution to this dilemma lies in recognition of the fact that the practical significance of claims regarding vulnerability depends on the context in which they are used. The claims that appear to lead to the central contradiction are in fact accurate conclusions that follow from different uses of the term 'vulnerability'. The present manuscript describes this 'pragmatic' approach to vulnerability in clinical research and considers its implications for ensuring that subjects receive appropriate protection. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

DSOD Procedures for Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, J. K.; Fraser, W. A.

2005-12-01

DSOD, which has jurisdiction over more than 1200 dams in California, routinely evaluates their dynamic stability using seismic shaking input ranging from simple pseudostatic coefficients to spectrally matched earthquake time histories. Our seismic hazard assessments assume maximum earthquake scenarios of nearest active and conditionally active seismic sources. Multiple earthquake scenarios may be evaluated depending on sensitivity of the design analysis (e.g., to certain spectral amplitudes, duration of shaking). Active sources are defined as those with evidence of movement within the last 35,000 years. Conditionally active sources are those with reasonable expectation of activity, which are treated as active until demonstrated otherwise. The Division's Geology Branch develops seismic hazard estimates using spectral attenuation formulas applicable to California. The formulas were selected, in part, to achieve a site response model similar to the 2000 IBC's for rock, soft rock, and stiff soil sites. The level of dynamic loading used in the stability analysis (50th, 67th, or 84th percentile ground shaking estimates) is determined using a matrix that considers consequence of dam failure and fault slip rate. We account for near-source directivity amplification along such faults by adjusting target response spectra and developing appropriate design earthquakes for analysis of structures sensitive to long-period motion. Based on in-house studies, the orientation of the dam analysis section relative to the fault-normal direction is considered for strike-slip earthquakes, but directivity amplification is assumed in any orientation for dip-slip earthquakes. We do not have probabilistic standards, but we evaluate the probability of our ground shaking estimates using hazard curves constructed from the USGS Interactive De-Aggregation website. Typically, return periods for our design loads exceed 1000 years. Excessive return periods may warrant a lower design load. Minimum

Annotated bibliography, seismicity of and near the island of Hawaii and seismic hazard analysis of the East Rift of Kilauea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klein, F.W.

1994-03-28

This bibliography is divided into the following four sections: Seismicity of Hawaii and Kilauea Volcano; Occurrence, locations and accelerations from large historical Hawaiian earthquakes; Seismic hazards of Hawaii; and Methods of seismic hazard analysis. It contains 62 references, most of which are accompanied by short abstracts.

Research on the spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Jing; Jiang, Jitong; Zheng, Qiuhong; Gao, Huiying

2017-05-01

Seismic hazard analysis(SHA) is a key component of earthquake disaster prevention field for island engineering, whose result could provide parameters for seismic design microscopically and also is the requisite work for the island conservation planning’s earthquake and comprehensive disaster prevention planning macroscopically, in the exploitation and construction process of both inhabited and uninhabited islands. The existing seismic hazard analysis methods are compared in their application, and their application and limitation for island is analysed. Then a specialized spatial analysis method of seismic hazard for island (SAMSHI) is given to support the further related work of earthquake disaster prevention planning, based on spatial analysis tools in GIS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The basic spatial database of SAMSHI includes faults data, historical earthquake record data, geological data and Bouguer gravity anomalies data, which are the data sources for the 11 indices of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and these indices are calculated by the spatial analysis model constructed in ArcGIS’s Model Builder platform.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

2016-04-01

Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

Spatial Analysis of the Level of Exposure to Seismic Hazards of Health Facilities in Mexico City, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, S.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2011-12-01

Although health facilities are essential infrastructure during disasters and emergencies, they are also usually highly vulnerable installations in the case of the occurrence of large and major earthquakes. Hospitals are one of the most complex critical facilities in modern cities and they are used as first response in emergency situations. The operability of a hospital must be maintained after the occurrence of a local strong earthquake in order to satisfy the need for medical care of the affected population. If a health facility is seriously damaged, it cannot fulfill its function when most is needed. In this case, hospitals become a casualty of the disaster. To identify the level of physical exposure of hospitals to seismic hazards in Mexico City, we analyzed their geographic location with respect to the seismic response of the different type of soils of the city from past earthquakes, mainly from the events that occurred on September 1985 (Ms= 8.0) and April 1989 (Ms= 6.9). Seismic wave amplification in this city is the result of the interaction of the incoming seismic waves with the soft and water saturated clay soils, on which a large part of Mexico City is built. The clay soils are remnants of the lake that existed in the Valley of Mexico and which has been drained gradually to accommodate the growing urban sprawl. Hospital facilities were converted from a simple database of names and locations into a map layer of resources. This resource layer was combined with other map layers showing areas of seismic microzonation in Mexico City. This overlay was then used to identify those hospitals that may be threatened by the occurrence of a large or major seismic event. We analyzed the public and private hospitals considered as main health facilities. Our results indicate that more than 50% of the hospitals are highly exposed to seismic hazards. Besides, in most of these health facilities we identified the lack of preventive measures and preparedness to reduce their

Preliminary consideration on the seismic actions recorded during the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlo Ponzo, Felice; Ditommaso, Rocco; Nigro, Antonella; Nigro, Domenico S.; Iacovino, Chiara

2017-04-01

health monitoring'' and by the "Centre of Integrated Geomorphology for the Mediterranean Area - CGIAM" within the Framework Agreement with the University of Basilicata "Study, Research and Experimentation in the Field of Analysis and Monitoring of Seismic Vulnerability of Strategic and Relevant Buildings for the purposes of Civil Protection and Development of Innovative Strategies of Seismic Reinforcement".

Hydra—The National Earthquake Information Center’s 24/7 seismic monitoring, analysis, catalog production, quality analysis, and special studies tool suite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patton, John M.; Guy, Michelle R.; Benz, Harley M.; Buland, Raymond P.; Erickson, Brian K.; Kragness, David S.

2016-08-18

This report provides an overview of the capabilities and design of Hydra, the global seismic monitoring and analysis system used for earthquake response and catalog production at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC). Hydra supports the NEIC’s worldwide earthquake monitoring mission in areas such as seismic event detection, seismic data insertion and storage, seismic data processing and analysis, and seismic data output.The Hydra system automatically identifies seismic phase arrival times and detects the occurrence of earthquakes in near-real time. The system integrates and inserts parametric and waveform seismic data into discrete events in a database for analysis. Hydra computes seismic event parameters, including locations, multiple magnitudes, moment tensors, and depth estimates. Hydra supports the NEIC’s 24/7 analyst staff with a suite of seismic analysis graphical user interfaces.In addition to the NEIC’s monitoring needs, the system supports the processing of aftershock and temporary deployment data, and supports the NEIC’s quality assurance procedures. The Hydra system continues to be developed to expand its seismic analysis and monitoring capabilities.

Slope Stability Analysis In Seismic Areas Of The Northern Apennines (Italy)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo Presti, D.; Fontana, T.; Marchetti, D.

2008-07-08

Several research works have been published on the slope stability in the northern Tuscany (central Italy) and particularly in the seismic areas of Garfagnana and Lunigiana (Lucca and Massa-Carrara districts), aimed at analysing the slope stability under static and dynamic conditions and mapping the landslide hazard. In addition, in situ and laboratory investigations are available for the study area, thanks to the activities undertaken by the Tuscany Seismic Survey. Based on such a huge information the co-seismic stability of few ideal slope profiles have been analysed by means of Limit equilibrium method LEM - (pseudo-static) and Newmark sliding block analysismore » (pseudo-dynamic). The analysis--results gave indications about the most appropriate seismic coefficient to be used in pseudo-static analysis after establishing allowable permanent displacement. Such indications are commented in the light of the Italian and European prescriptions for seismic stability analysis with pseudo-static approach. The stability conditions, obtained from the previous analyses, could be used to define microzonation criteria for the study area.« less

RSEIS and RFOC: Seismic Analysis in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lees, J. M.

2015-12-01

Open software is essential for reproducible scientific exchange. R-packages provide a platform for development of seismological investigation software that can be properly documented and traced for data processing. A suite of R packages designed for a wide range of seismic analysis is currently available in the free software platform called R. R is a software platform based on the S-language developed at Bell Labs decades ago. Routines in R can be run as standalone function calls, or developed in object-oriented mode. R comes with a base set of routines, and thousands of user developed packages. The packages developed at UNC include subroutines and interactive codes for processing seismic data, analyzing geographic information (GIS) and inverting data involved in a variety of geophysical applications. On CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive Network, http://www.r-project.org/) currently available packages related to seismic analysis are RSEIS, Rquake, GEOmap, RFOC, zoeppritz, RTOMO, and geophys, Rwave, PEIP, hht, rFDSN. These include signal processing, data management, mapping, earthquake location, deconvolution, focal mechanisms, wavelet transforms, Hilbert-Huang Transforms, tomographic inversion, and Mogi deformation among other useful functionality. All software in R packages is required to have detailed documentation, making the exchange and modification of existing software easy. In this presentation, I will focus on packages RSEIS and RFOC, showing examples from a variety of seismic analyses. The R approach has similarities to the popular (and expensive) MATLAB platform, although R is open source and free to down load.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to

Unsupervised seismic facies analysis with spatial constraints using regularized fuzzy c-means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chengyun; Liu, Zhining; Cai, Hanpeng; Wang, Yaojun; Li, Xingming; Hu, Guangmin

2017-12-01

Seismic facies analysis techniques combine classification algorithms and seismic attributes to generate a map that describes main reservoir heterogeneities. However, most of the current classification algorithms only view the seismic attributes as isolated data regardless of their spatial locations, and the resulting map is generally sensitive to noise. In this paper, a regularized fuzzy c-means (RegFCM) algorithm is used for unsupervised seismic facies analysis. Due to the regularized term of the RegFCM algorithm, the data whose adjacent locations belong to same classification will play a more important role in the iterative process than other data. Therefore, this method can reduce the effect of seismic data noise presented in discontinuous regions. The synthetic data with different signal/noise values are used to demonstrate the noise tolerance ability of the RegFCM algorithm. Meanwhile, the fuzzy factor, the neighbour window size and the regularized weight are tested using various values, to provide a reference of how to set these parameters. The new approach is also applied to a real seismic data set from the F3 block of the Netherlands. The results show improved spatial continuity, with clear facies boundaries and channel morphology, which reveals that the method is an effective seismic facies analysis tool.

Adding seismic broadband analysis to characterize Andean backarc seismicity in Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado, P.; Giuliano, A.; Beck, S.; Zandt, G.

2007-05-01

Characterization of the highly seismically active Andean backarc is crucial for assessment of earthquake hazards in western Argentina. Moderate-to-large crustal earthquakes have caused several deaths, damage and drastic economic consequences in Argentinean history. We have studied the Andean backarc crust between 30°S and 36°S using seismic broadband data available from a previous ("the CHARGE") IRIS-PASSCAL experiment. We collected more than 12 terabytes of continuous seismic data from 22 broadband instruments deployed across Chile and Argentina during 1.5 years. Using free software we modeled full regional broadband waveforms and obtained seismic moment tensor inversions of crustal earthquakes testing for the best focal depth for each event. We also mapped differences in the Andean backarc crustal structure and found a clear correlation with different types of crustal seismicity (i.e. focal depths, focal mechanisms, magnitudes and frequencies of occurrence) and previously mapped terrane boundaries. We now plan to use the same methodology to study other regions in Argentina using near-real time broadband data available from the national seismic (INPRES) network and global seismic networks operating in the region. We will re-design the national seismic network to optimize short-period and broadband seismic station coverage for different network purposes. This work is an international effort that involves researchers and students from universities and national government agencies with the goal of providing more information about earthquake hazards in western Argentina.

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-13

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management.

A Case Study of Geologic Hazards Affecting School Buildings: Evaluating Seismic Structural Vulnerability and Landslide Hazards at Schools in Aizawl, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perley, M. M.; Guo, J.

2016-12-01

India's National School Safety Program (NSSP) aims to assess all government schools in earthquake prone regions of the country. To supplement the Mizoram State Government's recent survey of 141 government schools, we screened an additional 16 private and 4 government schools for structural vulnerabilities due to earthquakes, as well as landslide hazards, in Mizoram's capital of Aizawl. We developed a geomorphologically derived landslide susceptibility matrix, which was cross-checked with Aizawl Municipal Corporation's landslide hazard map (provided by Lettis Consultants International), to determine the geologic hazards at each school. Our research indicates that only 7% of the 22 assessed school buildings are located within low landslide hazard zones; 64% of the school buildings, with approximately 9,500 students, are located within very high or high landslide hazard zones. Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) was used to determine the structural earthquake vulnerability of each school building. RVS is an initial vulnerability assessment procedure used to inventory and rank buildings that may be hazardous during an earthquake. Our study indicates that all of the 22 assessed school buildings have a damageability rating of Grade 3 or higher on the 5-grade EMS scale, suggesting a significant vulnerability and potential for damage in buildings, ranging from widespread cracking of columns and beam column joints to collapse. Additionally, 86% of the schools we visited had reinforced concrete buildings constructed before Aizawl's building regulations were passed in 2007, which can be assumed to lack appropriate seismic reinforcement. Using our findings, we will give recommendations to the Government of Mizoram to prevent unnecessary loss of life by minimizing each school's landslide risk and ensuring schools are earthquake-resistant.

Seismic Hazard analysis of Adjaria Region in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorjiashvili, Nato; Elashvili, Mikheil

2014-05-01

The most commonly used approach to determining seismic-design loads for engineering projects is probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). The primary output from a PSHA is a hazard curve showing the variation of a selected ground-motion parameter, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA), against the annual frequency of exceedance (or its reciprocal, return period). The design value is the ground-motion level that corresponds to a preselected design return period. For many engineering projects, such as standard buildings and typical bridges, the seismic loading is taken from the appropriate seismic-design code, the basis of which is usually a PSHA. For more important engineering projects— where the consequences of failure are more serious, such as dams and chemical plants—it is more usual to obtain the seismic-design loads from a site-specific PSHA, in general, using much longer return periods than those governing code based design. Calculation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard was performed using Software CRISIS2007 by Ordaz, M., Aguilar, A., and Arboleda, J., Instituto de Ingeniería, UNAM, Mexico. CRISIS implements a classical probabilistic seismic hazard methodology where seismic sources can be modelled as points, lines and areas. In the case of area sources, the software offers an integration procedure that takes advantage of a triangulation algorithm used for seismic source discretization. This solution improves calculation efficiency while maintaining a reliable description of source geometry and seismicity. Additionally, supplementary filters (e.g. fix a sitesource distance that excludes from calculation sources at great distance) allow the program to balance precision and efficiency during hazard calculation. Earthquake temporal occurrence is assumed to follow a Poisson process, and the code facilitates two types of MFDs: a truncated exponential Gutenberg-Richter [1944] magnitude distribution and a characteristic magnitude

Vulnerability-attention analysis for space-related activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ford, Donnie; Hays, Dan; Lee, Sung Yong; Wolfsberger, John

1988-01-01

Techniques for representing and analyzing trouble spots in structures and processes are discussed. Identification of vulnerable areas usually depends more on particular and often detailed knowledge than on algorithmic or mathematical procedures. In some cases, machine inference can facilitate the identification. The analysis scheme proposed first establishes the geometry of the process, then marks areas that are conditionally vulnerable. This provides a basis for advice on the kinds of human attention or machine sensing and control that can make the risks tolerable.

Bridge seismic retrofit measures considering subduction zone earthquakes.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

Over the years, earthquakes have exposed the vulnerability of reinforced concrete structures under : seismic loads. The recent occurrence of highly devastating earthquakes near instrumented regions, e.g. 2010 Maule, Chile : and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, ha...

Seismic retrofitting manual for highway structures. Part 2, Retaining structures, slopes, tunnels, culverts, and roadways

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-08-01

This report is the second of a two-part publication entitled "Seismic Retrofitting Manual for Highway Structures". Part 2 includes new procedures for determining the seismic vulnerability of other important highway system structures, namely, retainin...

Evaluating Seismic Site Effects at Cultural Heritage Sites in the Mediterranean Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imposa, S.; D'Amico, S.; Panzera, F.; Lombardo, G.; Grassi, S.; Betti, M.; Muscat, R.

2017-12-01

Present study concern integrated geophysical and numerical simulation aiming at evaluate the seismic vulnerability of cultural heritage sites. Non-invasive analysis targeted to characterize local site effects as well as dynamic properties of the structure were performed. Data were collected at several locations in the Maltese Archipelago (central Mediterranean) and in some historical buildings located in Catania (Sicily). In particular, passive seismic techniques and H/V data where used to derive 1D velocity models and amplification functions. The dynamic properties of a building are usually described through its natural frequency and the damping ratio. This latter is important in seismic design since it allows one to evaluate the ability of a structure to dissipate the vibration energy during an earthquake. The fundamental frequency of the investigated structure was obtained using ambient vibrations recorded by two or more sensors monitoring the motion at different locations in the building. Accordingly, the fundamental period of several Maltese Watchtowers and some historical buildings of Catania were obtained by computing the ratio between the amplitudes of the Fourier spectrum of horizontal (longitudinal and transverse) components recorded on the top and on the ground floors. Using ANSYS code, the modal analysis was performed to evaluate the first 50 vibration modes with the aim to check the activation of the modal masses and to assess the seismic vulnerability of the tower. The STRATA code was instead adopted in the Catania heritage buildings using as reference earthquake moderate to strong shocks that struck south-eastern Sicily. In most of the investigated buildings is was not possible to identify a single natural frequency but several oscillation modes. These results appear linked to the structural complexity of the edifices, their irregular plan shape and the presence of adjacent structures. The H/V outside the buildings were used to determine predominant

A concept analysis of women's vulnerability during pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period.

PubMed

Briscoe, Lesley; Lavender, Tina; McGowan, Linda

2016-10-01

To report an analysis of the concept of vulnerability associated with pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period. The concept of vulnerability during childbirth is complex and the term, 'to be vulnerable' frequently attains a vague application. Analysis about vulnerability is needed to guide policy, practice, education and research. Clarity around the concept has the potential to improve outcomes for women. Concept analysis. Searches were conducted in CINAHL, EMBASE, PubMed, Psychinfo, MEDLINE, MIDIRS and ASSIA and limited to between January 2000 - June 2014. Data were collected over 12 months during 2014. This concept analysis drew on Morse's qualitative methods. Vulnerability during pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period can be defined by three main attributes: (a) Threat; (b) Barrier; and (c) Repair. Key attributes have the potential to influence outcome for women. Inseparable sub-attributes such as mother and baby attachment, the woman's free will and choice added a level of complexity about the concept. This concept analysis has clarified how the term vulnerability is currently understood and used in relation to pregnancy, birth and the postnatal period. Vulnerability should be viewed as a complex phenomenon rather than a singular concept. A 'vulnerability journey plan' has the potential to identify how reparative interventions may develop the woman's capacity for resilience and influence the degree of vulnerability experienced. Methodology based around complex theory should be explored in future work about vulnerability. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seismic soil structure interaction analysis for asymmetrical buildings supported on piled raft for the 2015 Nepal earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badry, Pallavi; Satyam, Neelima

2017-01-01

Seismic damage surveys and analyses conducted on modes of failure of structures during past earthquakes observed that the asymmetrical buildings show the most vulnerable effect throughout the course of failures (Wegner et al., 2009). Thus, all asymmetrical buildings significantly fails during the shaking events and it is really needed to focus on the accurate analysis of the building, including all possible accuracy in the analysis. Apart from superstructure geometry, the soil behavior during earthquake shaking plays a pivotal role in the building collapse (Chopra, 2012). Fixed base analysis where the soil is considered to be infinitely rigid cannot simulate the actual scenario of wave propagation during earthquakes and wave transfer mechanism in the superstructure (Wolf, 1985). This can be well explained in the soil structure interaction analysis, where the ground movement and structural movement can be considered with the equal rigor. In the present study the object oriented program has been developed in C++ to model the SSI system using the finite element methodology. In this attempt the seismic soil structure interaction analysis has been carried out for T, L and C types piled raft supported buildings in the recent 25th April 2015 Nepal earthquake (M = 7.8). The soil properties have been considered with the appropriate soil data from the Katmandu valley region. The effect of asymmetry of the building on the responses of the superstructure is compared with the author's research work. It has been studied/observed that the shape or geometry of the superstructure governs the response of the superstructure subjected to the same earthquake load.

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-01

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management. PMID:29342852

Historical seismicity, palaeoseismicity and seismic risk in Western Macedonia, Northern Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stiros, Stathis C.

Western Macedonia, Northern Greece, was a seismically quiescent region for one or more centuries, and was regarded as a nearly aseismic, rigid block inside a broad zone of distributed continental deformation and faulting, and a region of minimum seismic risk. Consequently, the May 13, 1995 destructive earthquake ( M = 6.6) which hit this assumed aseismic zone was a surprise for scientists, government and population. However, historical and archaeoseismic evidence, as well as coastal change data indicate that the assumed aseismic region of Western Macedonia has been affected in the last 2,000 years by at least seven, and possibly nine destructive earthquakes. One of these earthquakes occurred in circa 1700, and probably had the same epicentre with, but higher magnitude than the 1995 shock. The earthquake in circa 1700 is deduced from historical data and is modelled on the base of a swarm of church repairs which is explained as post-seismic recovery of the broader Kozani area: except for certain well known cases of towns or areas in which religious privileges were granted, large scale repairs or reconstruction of churches during the Ottoman period were possible only after Sultan's permissions, usually following earthquakes and other calamities. It can hence be concluded that some, at least, of the apparently aseismic regions inside broad zones of distributed seismicity are hit by stronger shocks, but with longer (200 years or more) recurrence intervals than their adjacent zones. Consequently, the seismic risk of the apparently aseismic regions is certainly not low, especially since relatively long periods of seismic quiescence lead to constructions vulnerable to earthquakes.

Urban Seismic Hazard Mapping for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan

2006-01-01

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but scientists can forecast how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake. Seismic hazard maps provide one way of conveying such forecasts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces seismic hazard maps for the Nation, is now engaged in developing more detailed maps for vulnerable urban areas. The first set of these maps is now available for Memphis, Tennessee.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of a Condensate Storage Tank with Age-Related Degradations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nie, J.; Braverman, J.; Hofmayer, C

2011-04-01

The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) is conducting a five-year research project to develop a realistic seismic risk evaluation system which includes the consideration of aging of structures and components in nuclear power plants (NPPs). The KAERI research project includes three specific areas that are essential to seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA): (1) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, (2) seismic fragility analysis including the effects of aging, and (3) a plant seismic risk analysis. Since 2007, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has entered into a collaboration agreement with KAERI to support its development of seismic capability evaluation technology for degraded structuresmore » and components. The collaborative research effort is intended to continue over a five year period. The goal of this collaboration endeavor is to assist KAERI to develop seismic fragility analysis methods that consider the potential effects of age-related degradation of structures, systems, and components (SSCs). The research results of this multi-year collaboration will be utilized as input to seismic PRAs. This report describes the research effort performed by BNL for the Year 4 scope of work. This report was developed as an update to the Year 3 report by incorporating a major supplement to the Year 3 fragility analysis. In the Year 4 research scope, an additional study was carried out to consider an additional degradation scenario, in which the three basic degradation scenarios, i.e., degraded tank shell, degraded anchor bolts, and cracked anchorage concrete, are combined in a non-perfect correlation manner. A representative operational water level is used for this effort. Building on the same CDFM procedure implemented for the Year 3 Tasks, a simulation method was applied using optimum Latin Hypercube samples to characterize the deterioration behavior of the fragility capacity as a function of age-related degradations. The results are summarized in

Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

2013-04-01

Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

CORSSA: The Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, Andrew J.; Wiemer, Stefan

2010-01-01

Statistical seismology is the application of rigorous statistical methods to earthquake science with the goal of improving our knowledge of how the earth works. Within statistical seismology there is a strong emphasis on the analysis of seismicity data in order to improve our scientific understanding of earthquakes and to improve the evaluation and testing of earthquake forecasts, earthquake early warning, and seismic hazards assessments. Given the societal importance of these applications, statistical seismology must be done well. Unfortunately, a lack of educational resources and available software tools make it difficult for students and new practitioners to learn about this discipline. The goal of the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA) is to promote excellence in statistical seismology by providing the knowledge and resources necessary to understand and implement the best practices, so that the reader can apply these methods to their own research. This introduction describes the motivation for and vision of CORRSA. It also describes its structure and contents.

Analysis and Simulation of Far-Field Seismic Data from the Source Physics Experiment

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION OF FAR-FIELD SEISMIC DATA FROM THE SOURCE PHYSICS EXPERIMENT Arben Pitarka, Robert J. Mellors, Arthur J. Rodgers, Sean...Security Site (NNSS) provides new data for investigating the excitation and propagation of seismic waves generated by buried explosions. A particular... seismic model. The 3D seismic model includes surface topography. It is based on regional geological data, with material properties constrained by shallow

Multi-hole seismic modeling in 3-D space and cross-hole seismic tomography analysis for boulder detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Fei; Liu, Jiangping; Wang, Jing; Zong, Yuquan; Yu, Mingyu

2016-11-01

A boulder stone, a common geological feature in south China, is referred to the remnant of a granite body which has been unevenly weathered. Undetected boulders could adversely impact the schedule and safety of subway construction when using tunnel boring machine (TBM) method. Therefore, boulder detection has always been a key issue demanded to be solved before the construction. Nowadays, cross-hole seismic tomography is a high resolution technique capable of boulder detection, however, the method can only solve for velocity in a 2-D slice between two wells, and the size and central position of the boulder are generally difficult to be accurately obtained. In this paper, the authors conduct a multi-hole wave field simulation and characteristic analysis of a boulder model based on the 3-D elastic wave staggered-grid finite difference theory, and also a 2-D imaging analysis based on first arrival travel time. The results indicate that (1) full wave field records could be obtained from multi-hole seismic wave simulations. Simulation results describe that the seismic wave propagation pattern in cross-hole high-velocity spherical geological bodies is more detailed and can serve as a basis for the wave field analysis. (2) When a cross-hole seismic section cuts through the boulder, the proposed method provides satisfactory cross-hole tomography results; however, when the section is closely positioned to the boulder, such high-velocity object in the 3-D space would impact on the surrounding wave field. The received diffracted wave interferes with the primary wave and in consequence the picked first arrival travel time is not derived from the profile, which results in a false appearance of high-velocity geology features. Finally, the results of 2-D analysis in 3-D modeling space are comparatively analyzed with the physical model test vis-a-vis the effect of high velocity body on the seismic tomographic measurements.

Policies on Protecting Vulnerable People During Disasters in Iran: A Document Analysis

PubMed Central

Abbasi Dolatabadi, Zahra; Seyedin, Hesam; Aryankhesal, Aidin

2016-01-01

Context Developing official protection policies for disasters is a main strategy in protecting vulnerable people. The aim of this study was to analyze official documents concerning policies on protecting vulnerable people during disasters. Evidence Acquisition This study was conducted by the qualitative document analysis method. Documents were gathered by searching websites and referring to the organizations involved in disaster management. The documents were assessed by a researcher-made data collection form. A directed content analysis approach was used to analyze the retrieved documents regarding the protection policies and legislation for vulnerable people. Results A total of 22 documents were included in the final analysis. Most of the documents referred to women, children, elderly people, poor, and villagers as vulnerable people. Moreover, the documents did not provide information regarding official measures for protecting vulnerable people during different phases of disaster management. Conclusions A clear and comprehensive definition of “vulnerable people” and formulation of official policies to protect them is needs to be formulated. Given the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, policy makers need to develop effective context-based policies to protect vulnerable people during disasters. PMID:27921019

Review on Rapid Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Bulk of Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanda, R. P.; Majhi, D. R.

2013-09-01

This paper provides a brief overview of rapid visual screening (RVS) procedures available in different countries with a comparison among all the methods. Seismic evaluation guidelines from, USA, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, India, Europe, Italy, UNDP, with other methods are reviewed from the perspective of their applicability to developing countries. The review shows clearly that some of the RVS procedures are unsuited for potential use in developing countries. It is expected that this comparative assessment of various evaluation schemes will help to identify the most essential components of such a procedure for use in India and other developing countries, which is not only robust, reliable but also easy to use with available resources. It appears that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 154 and New Zealand Draft Code approaches can be suitably combined to develop a transparent, reasonably rigorous and generalized procedure for seismic evaluation of buildings in developing countries.

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition

Post-blasting seismicity in Rudna copper mine, Poland - source parameters analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caputa, Alicja; Rudziński, Łukasz; Talaga, Adam

2017-04-01

The really important hazard in Polish copper mines is high seismicity and corresponding rockbursts. Many methods are used to reduce the seismic hazard. Among others the most effective is preventing blasting in potentially hazardous mining panels. The method is expected to provoke small moderate tremors (up to M2.0) and reduce in this way a stress accumulation in the rockmass. This work presents an analysis, which deals with post-blasting events in Rudna copper mine, Poland. Using the Full Moment Tensor (MT) inversion and seismic spectra analysis, we try to find some characteristic features of post blasting seismic sources. Source parameters estimated for post-blasting events are compared with the parameters of not-provoked mining events that occurred in the vicinity of the provoked sources. Our studies show that focal mechanisms of events which occurred after blasts have similar MT decompositions, namely are characterized by a quite strong isotropic component as compared with the isotropic component of not-provoked events. Also source parameters obtained from spectral analysis show that provoked seismicity has a specific source physics. Among others, it is visible from S to P wave energy ratio, which is higher for not-provoked events. The comparison of all our results reveals a three possible groups of sources: a) occurred just after blasts, b) occurred from 5min to 24h after blasts and c) not-provoked seismicity (more than 24h after blasting). Acknowledgements: This work was supported within statutory activities No3841/E-41/S/2016 of Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland.

Post-seismic velocity changes following the 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, revealed by ambient seismic field analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckels, R. EG; Savage, M. K.; Townend, J.

2018-05-01

Quantifying seismic velocity changes following large earthquakes can provide insights into fault healing and reloading processes. This study presents temporal velocity changes detected following the 2010 September Mw 7.1 Darfield event in Canterbury, New Zealand. We use continuous waveform data from several temporary seismic networks lying on and surrounding the Greendale Fault, with a maximum interstation distance of 156 km. Nine-component, day-long Green's functions were computed for frequencies between 0.1 and 1.0 Hz for continuous seismic records from immediately after the 2010 September 04 earthquake until 2011 January 10. Using the moving-window cross-spectral method, seismic velocity changes were calculated. Over the study period, an increase in seismic velocity of 0.14 ± 0.04 per cent was determined near the Greendale Fault, providing a new constraint on post-seismic relaxation rates in the region. A depth analysis further showed that velocity changes were confined to the uppermost 5 km of the subsurface. We attribute the observed changes to post-seismic relaxation via crack healing of the Greendale Fault and throughout the surrounding region.

Signal-to-noise ratio application to seismic marker analysis and fracture detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hui-Qun; Gui, Zhi-Xian

2014-03-01

Seismic data with high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are useful in reservoir exploration. To obtain high SNR seismic data, significant effort is required to achieve noise attenuation in seismic data processing, which is costly in materials, and human and financial resources. We introduce a method for improving the SNR of seismic data. The SNR is calculated by using the frequency domain method. Furthermore, we optimize and discuss the critical parameters and calculation procedure. We applied the proposed method on real data and found that the SNR is high in the seismic marker and low in the fracture zone. Consequently, this can be used to extract detailed information about fracture zones that are inferred by structural analysis but not observed in conventional seismic data.

A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Maggiò, F.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.

2008-07-01

The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

Analysis of Magnitude Correlations in a Self-Similar model of Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano, A.; Joern, D.

2017-12-01

A recent model of seismicity that incorporates a self-similar Omori-Utsu relation, which is used to describe the temporal evolution of earthquake triggering, has been shown to provide a more accurate description of seismicity in Southern California when compared to epidemic type aftershock sequence models. Forecasting of earthquakes is an active research area where one of the debated points is whether magnitude correlations of earthquakes exist within real world seismic data. Prior to this work, the analysis of magnitude correlations of the aforementioned self-similar model had not been addressed. Here we present statistical properties of the magnitude correlations for the self-similar model along with an analytical analysis of the branching ratio and criticality parameters.

Seismic evaluation and ranking of embankments for bridges on and over the parkways in Western Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

This study represents one of the Seismic Evaluation of Bridges on and over the Parkways in Western Kentucky investigative series. The effort is focused on the seismic vulnerability of bridge embankments against slope instability and liquefaction pote...

Seismic assessment of a multi-span steel railway bridge in Turkey based on nonlinear time history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yılmaz, Mehmet F.; Çağlayan, Barlas Ö.

2018-01-01

Many research studies have shown that bridges are vulnerable to earthquakes, graphically confirmed by incidents such as the San Fernando (1971 USA), Northridge (1994 USA), Great Hanshin (1995 Japan), and Chi-Chi (1999 Taiwan) earthquakes, amongst many others. The studies show that fragility curves are useful tools for bridge seismic risk assessments, which can be generated empirically or analytically. Empirical fragility curves can be generated where damage reports from past earthquakes are available, but otherwise, analytical fragility curves can be generated from structural seismic response analysis. Earthquake damage data in Turkey are very limited, hence this study employed an analytical method to generate fragility curves for the Alasehir bridge. The Alasehir bridge is part of the Manisa-Uşak-Dumlupınar-Afyon railway line, which is very important for human and freight transportation, and since most of the country is seismically active, it is essential to assess the bridge's vulnerability. The bridge consists of six 30 m truss spans with a total span 189 m supported by 2 abutments and 5 truss piers, 12.5, 19, 26, 33, and 40 m. Sap2000 software was used to model the Alasehir bridge, which was refined using field measurements, and the effect of 60 selected real earthquake data analyzed using the refined model, considering material and geometry nonlinearity. Thus, the seismic behavior of Alasehir railway bridge was determined and truss pier reaction and displacements were used to determine its seismic performance. Different intensity measures were compared for efficiency, practicality, and sufficiency and their component and system fragility curves derived.

Seismic slope-performance analysis: from hazard map to decision support system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.; Ho, Carlton L.

1999-01-01

In response to the growing recognition of engineers and decision-makers of the regional effects of earthquake-induced landslides, this paper presents a general approach to conducting seismic landslide zonation, based on the popular Newmark's sliding block analogy for modeling coherent landslides. Four existing models based on the sliding block analogy are compared. The comparison shows that the models forecast notably different levels of slope performance. Considering this discrepancy along with the limitations of static maps as a decision tool, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for seismic landslide analysis is proposed, which will support investigations over multiple scales for any number of earthquake scenarios and input conditions. Most importantly, the SDSS will allow use of any seismic landslide analysis model and zonation approach. Developments associated with the SDSS will produce an object-oriented model for encapsulating spatial data, an object-oriented specification to allow construction of models using modular objects, and a direct-manipulation, dynamic user-interface that adapts to the particular seismic landslide model configuration.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Romanian Educational Seismic Network Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tataru, Dragos; Ionescu, Constantin; Zaharia, Bogdan; Grecu, Bogdan; Tibu, Speranta; Popa, Mihaela; Borleanu, Felix; Toma, Dragos; Brisan, Nicoleta; Georgescu, Emil-Sever; Dobre, Daniela; Dragomir, Claudiu-Sorin

2013-04-01

Romania is one of the most active seismic countries in Europe, with more than 500 earthquakes occurring every year. The seismic hazard of Romania is relatively high and thus understanding the earthquake phenomena and their effects at the earth surface represents an important step toward the education of population in earthquake affected regions of the country and aims to raise the awareness about the earthquake risk and possible mitigation actions. In this direction, the first national educational project in the field of seismology has recently started in Romania: the ROmanian EDUcational SEISmic NETwork (ROEDUSEIS-NET) project. It involves four partners: the National Institute for Earth Physics as coordinator, the National Institute for Research and Development in Construction, Urban Planning and Sustainable Spatial Development " URBAN - INCERC" Bucharest, the Babeş-Bolyai University (Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Engineering) and the software firm "BETA Software". The project has many educational, scientific and social goals. The main educational objectives are: training students and teachers in the analysis and interpretation of seismological data, preparing of several comprehensive educational materials, designing and testing didactic activities using informatics and web-oriented tools. The scientific objective is to introduce into schools the use of advanced instruments and experimental methods that are usually restricted to research laboratories, with the main product being the creation of an earthquake waveform archive. Thus a large amount of such data will be used by students and teachers for educational purposes. For the social objectives, the project represents an effective instrument for informing and creating an awareness of the seismic risk, for experimentation into the efficacy of scientific communication, and for an increase in the direct involvement of schools and the general public. A network of nine seismic stations with SEP seismometers

Seismic behavior of an Italian Renaissance Sanctuary: Damage assessment by numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, Francesco; Nespeca, Andrea; Lenci, Stefano

2016-12-01

The paper deals with modelling and analysis of architectural heritage through the discussion of an illustrative case study: the Medieval Sanctuary of Sant'Agostino (Offida, Italy). Using the finite element technique, a 3D numerical model of the sanctuary is built, and then used to identify the main sources of the damages. The work shows that advanced numerical analyses could offer significant information for the understanding of the causes of existing damage and, more generally, on the seismic vulnerability.

Seismic Noise Analysis and Reduction through Utilization of Collocated Seismic and Atmospheric Sensors at the GRO Chile Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, M. E.; Russo, R. M.

2013-12-01

The installation of Earthscope Transportable Array-style geophysical observatories in Chile expands open data seismic recording capabilities in the southern hemisphere by nearly 30%, and has nearly tripled the number of seismic stations providing freely-available data in southern South America. Through the use of collocated seismic and atmospheric sensors at these stations we are able to analyze how local atmospheric conditions generate seismic noise, which can degrade data in seismic frequency bands at stations in the ';roaring forties' (S latitudes). Seismic vaults that are climate-controlled and insulated from the local environment are now employed throughout the world in an attempt to isolate seismometers from as many noise sources as possible. However, this is an expensive solution that is neither practical nor possible for all seismic deployments; and also, the increasing number and scope of temporary seismic deployments has resulted in the collection and archiving of terabytes of seismic data that is affected to some degree by natural seismic noise sources such as wind and atmospheric pressure changes. Changing air pressure can result in a depression and subsequent rebound of Earth's surface - which generates low frequency noise in seismic frequency bands - and even moderate winds can apply enough force to ground-coupled structures or to the surface above the seismometers themselves, resulting in significant noise. The 10 stations of the permanent Geophysical Reporting Observatories (GRO Chile), jointly installed during 2011-12 by IRIS and the Chilean Servicio Sismológico, include instrumentation in addition to the standard three seismic components. These stations, spaced approximately 300 km apart along the length of the country, continuously record a variety of atmospheric data including infrasound, air pressure, wind speed, and wind direction. The collocated seismic and atmospheric sensors at each station allow us to analyze both datasets together, to

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements

Analysis of the Seismicity Preceding Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stallone, A.; Marzocchi, W.

2016-12-01

The most common earthquake forecasting models assume that the magnitude of the next earthquake is independent from the past. This feature is probably one of the most severe limitations of the capability to forecast large earthquakes.In this work, we investigate empirically on this specific aspect, exploring whether spatial-temporal variations in seismicity encode some information on the magnitude of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, and to verify the universality of the findings, we consider seismic catalogs covering quite different space-time-magnitude windows, such as the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO) catalogue, and the California and Japanese seismic catalog. Our method is inspired by the statistical methodology proposed by Zaliapin (2013) to distinguish triggered and background earthquakes, using the nearest-neighbor clustering analysis in a two-dimension plan defined by rescaled time and space. In particular, we generalize the metric based on the nearest-neighbor to a metric based on the k-nearest-neighbors clustering analysis that allows us to consider the overall space-time-magnitude distribution of k-earthquakes (k-foreshocks) which anticipate one target event (the mainshock); then we analyze the statistical properties of the clusters identified in this rescaled space. In essence, the main goal of this study is to verify if different classes of mainshock magnitudes are characterized by distinctive k-foreshocks distribution. The final step is to show how the findings of this work may (or not) improve the skill of existing earthquake forecasting models.

A Bimodal Hybrid Model for Time-Dependent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman; Shoaeifar, Nasser; Shoaeifar, Parva

2018-03-01

The evaluation of evidence provided by geological studies and historical catalogs indicates that in some seismic regions and faults, multiple large earthquakes occur in cluster. Then, the occurrences of large earthquakes confront with quiescence and only the small-to-moderate earthquakes take place. Clustering of large earthquakes is the most distinguishable departure from the assumption of constant hazard of random occurrence of earthquakes in conventional seismic hazard analysis. In the present study, a time-dependent recurrence model is proposed to consider a series of large earthquakes that occurs in clusters. The model is flexible enough to better reflect the quasi-periodic behavior of large earthquakes with long-term clustering, which can be used in time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with engineering purposes. In this model, the time-dependent hazard results are estimated by a hazard function which comprises three parts. A decreasing hazard of last large earthquake cluster and an increasing hazard of the next large earthquake cluster, along with a constant hazard of random occurrence of small-to-moderate earthquakes. In the final part of the paper, the time-dependent seismic hazard of the New Madrid Seismic Zone at different time intervals has been calculated for illustrative purpose.

Bayesian identification of multiple seismic change points and varying seismic rates caused by induced seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montoya-Noguera, Silvana; Wang, Yu

2017-04-01

The Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) has experienced an abnormal increase in seismic activity, which is believed to be related to anthropogenic activities. The U.S. Geological Survey has acknowledged this situation and developed the CEUS 2016 1 year seismic hazard model using the catalog of 2015 by assuming stationary seismicity in that period. However, due to the nonstationary nature of induced seismicity, it is essential to identify change points for accurate probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). We present a Bayesian procedure to identify the most probable change points in seismicity and define their respective seismic rates. It uses prior distributions in agreement with conventional PSHA and updates them with recent data to identify seismicity changes. It can determine the change points in a regional scale and may incorporate different types of information in an objective manner. It is first successfully tested with simulated data, and then it is used to evaluate Oklahoma's regional seismicity.

Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoplee, Santi; Charusiri, Punya

2016-06-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Thailand was performed and compared to those of previous works. This PSHA was based upon (1) the most up-to-date paleoseismological data (slip rates), (2) the seismic source zones, (3) the seismicity parameters ( a and b values), and (4) the strong ground-motion attenuation models suggested as being suitable models for Thailand. For the PSHA mapping, both the ground shaking and probability of exceedance (POE) were analyzed and mapped using various methods of presentation. In addition, site-specific PSHAs were demonstrated for ten major provinces within Thailand. For instance, a 2 and 10 % POE in the next 50 years of a 0.1-0.4 g and 0.1-0.2 g ground shaking, respectively, was found for western Thailand, defining this area as the most earthquake-prone region evaluated in Thailand. In a comparison between the ten selected specific provinces within Thailand, the Kanchanaburi and Tak provinces had comparatively high seismic hazards, and therefore, effective mitigation plans for these areas should be made. Although Bangkok was defined as being within a low seismic hazard in this PSHA, a further study of seismic wave amplification due to the soft soil beneath Bangkok is required.

Structural Identification And Seismic Analysis Of An Existing Masonry Building

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Del Monte, Emanuele; Galano, Luciano; Ortolani, Barbara

2008-07-08

The paper presents the diagnostic investigation and the seismic analysis performed on an ancient masonry building in Florence. The building has historical interest and is subjected to conservative restrictions. The investigation involves a preliminary phase concerning the research of the historic documents and a second phase of execution of in situ and laboratory tests to detect the mechanical characteristics of the masonry. This investigation was conceived in order to obtain the 'LC2 Knowledge Level' and to perform the non-linear pushover analysis according to the new Italian Standards for seismic upgrading of existing masonry buildings.

Advanced computational tools for 3-D seismic analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barhen, J.; Glover, C.W.; Protopopescu, V.A.

1996-06-01

The global objective of this effort is to develop advanced computational tools for 3-D seismic analysis, and test the products using a model dataset developed under the joint aegis of the United States` Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and the European Association of Exploration Geophysicists (EAEG). The goal is to enhance the value to the oil industry of the SEG/EAEG modeling project, carried out with US Department of Energy (DOE) funding in FY` 93-95. The primary objective of the ORNL Center for Engineering Systems Advanced Research (CESAR) is to spearhead the computational innovations techniques that would enable a revolutionary advancemore » in 3-D seismic analysis. The CESAR effort is carried out in collaboration with world-class domain experts from leading universities, and in close coordination with other national laboratories and oil industry partners.« less

Vulnerability related to oral health in early childhood: a concept analysis.

PubMed

Mattheus, Deborah J

2010-09-01

This article is a report of the analysis of the concept of vulnerability and its relationship to oral health in early childhood. Poor oral health is a continued problem for children worldwide. Vulnerability increases the probability of poor oral health outcomes. The lack of clarity of the concept of vulnerability creates difficulty in understanding this multi-factoral condition. Data source included 34 articles covering the period 2000-2009 from a variety of disciplines, including nursing, dentistry, medicine and public health. The concept analysis was conducted using Rodgers' evolutionary method. The literature was analysed and a social ecology model was used to frame the discussion, recognizing family and community influences on children's oral health. The context of oral health in early childhood contributes to the changes in the concept vulnerability. The attributes are closely related to family and community factors and identified as limited parental income, parental education, community-based services and fluoride; and exposure to poor parental habits, parental neglect and harmful toxins. The primary antecedent is identified as a form of limited protection from exposure to various circumstances. Children with limited protection have increased vulnerability and greater probability of poor health outcomes. Nurses who understand the concept of vulnerability related to oral health and can identify factors that create protection and are capable of decreasing vulnerability through parent education, community awareness and policy changes that support children and families.

Seismic fragility curves of bridge piers accounting for ground motions in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Duy-Duan; Lee, Tae-Hyung

2018-04-01

Korea is located in a slight-to-moderate seismic zone. Nevertheless, several studies pointed that the peak earthquake magnitude in the region can be reached to approximately 6.5. Accordingly, a seismic vulnerability evaluation of the existing structures accounting for ground motions in Korea is momentous. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for bridge piers of a steel box girder bridge equipped with and without base isolators based on a set of ground motions recorded in Korea. A finite element simulation platform, OpenSees, is utilized to perform nonlinear time history analyses of the bridges. A series of damage states is defined based on a damage index which is expressed in terms of the column displacement ductility ratio. The fragility curves based on Korean motions were thereafter compared with the fragility curves generated using worldwide earthquakes to assess the effect of the two ground motion groups on the seismic fragility curves of the bridge piers. The results reveal that both non- and base-isolated bridge piers are less vulnerable during the Korean ground motions than that under worldwide earthquakes.

Seismic risk perception test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crescimbene, Massimo; La Longa, Federica; Camassi, Romano; Pino, Nicola Alessandro

2013-04-01

The perception of risks involves the process of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of events, activities or technologies. In the natural sciences the term risk seems to be clearly defined, it means the probability distribution of adverse effects, but the everyday use of risk has different connotations (Renn, 2008). The two terms, hazards and risks, are often used interchangeably by the public. Knowledge, experience, values, attitudes and feelings all influence the thinking and judgement of people about the seriousness and acceptability of risks. Within the social sciences however the terminology of 'risk perception' has become the conventional standard (Slovic, 1987). The mental models and other psychological mechanisms which people use to judge risks (such as cognitive heuristics and risk images) are internalized through social and cultural learning and constantly moderated (reinforced, modified, amplified or attenuated) by media reports, peer influences and other communication processes (Morgan et al., 2001). Yet, a theory of risk perception that offers an integrative, as well as empirically valid, approach to understanding and explaining risk perception is still missing". To understand the perception of risk is necessary to consider several areas: social, psychological, cultural, and their interactions. Among the various research in an international context on the perception of natural hazards, it seemed promising the approach with the method of semantic differential (Osgood, C.E., Suci, G., & Tannenbaum, P. 1957, The measurement of meaning. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press). The test on seismic risk perception has been constructed by the method of the semantic differential. To compare opposite adjectives or terms has been used a Likert's scale to seven point. The test consists of an informative part and six sections respectively dedicated to: hazard; vulnerability (home and workplace); exposed value (with reference to

Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

2015-12-01

Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

Analysis of seismic patterns observed at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia during August September 1985

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinelli, Bruno

1990-07-01

The seismic activity of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano was monitored during August-September 1985 using a three-component portable seismograph station placed on the upper part of the volcano. The objective was to investigate the frequency content of the seismic signals and the possible sources of the volcanic tremor. The seismicity showed a wide spectrum of signals, especially at the beginning of September. Some relevant patterns from the collected records, which have been analyzed by spectrum analysis, are presented. For the purpose of analysis, the records have been divided into several categories such as long-period events, tremor, cyclic tremor episodes, and strong seismic activity on September 8, 1985. The origin of the seismic signals must be considered in relation to the dynamical and acoustical properties of fluids and the shape and dimensions of the volcano's conduits. The main results of the present experiment and analysis show that the sources of the seismic signals are within the volcanic edifice. The signal characteristics indicate that the sources lie in fluid-phase interactions rather than in brittle fracturing of solid components.

Seismic and hydroacoustic analysis relevant to MH370

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stead, Richard J.

2014-07-03

The vicinity of the Indian Ocean is searched for open and readily available seismic and/or hydroacoustic stations that might have recorded a possible impact of MH370 with the ocean surface. Only three stations are identified: the IMS hydrophone arrays H01 and H08, and the Geoscope seismic station AIS. Analysis of the data from these stations shows an interesting arrival on H01 that has some interference from an Antarctic ice event, large amplitude repeating signals at H08 that obscure any possible arrivals, and large amplitude chaotic noise at AIS precludes any analysis at higher frequencies of interest. The results are thereforemore » rather inconclusive but may point to a more southerly impact location within the overall Indian Ocean search region. The results would be more useful if they can be combined with any other data that are not readily available.« less

Seismic risk assessment for Poiana Uzului (Romania) buttress dam on Uz river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Toma-Danila, Dragos; Paerele, Cosmin Marian; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Ghita, Cristian

2017-04-01

The most important specific requirements towards dams' safety is the seismic risk assessment. This objective will be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine, 2002, and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at dams' site, the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics. The maximum expected values for ground motions at dams' site have been obtained using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches. The structural vulnerability was obtained from dams' characteristics (age, high, water volume) and the downstream risk was assessed using human, economical, touristic, historic and cultural heritage information from the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. A couple of flooding scenarios have been performed. The results of the work consist of local and regional seismic information, specific characteristics of dam, seismic hazard values for different return periods and risk classes. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide in the near future the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of a large earthquake occurrence, allowing further public training for evacuation. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by the Partnership in Priority Areas Program - PNII, under MEN-UEFISCDI, DARING Project no. 69/2014 and the Nucleu Program - PN 16-35, Project no. 03 01 and 01 06.

75 FR 13610 - Office of New Reactors; Interim Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-22

... Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic... Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment,'' (Agencywide Documents.../COL-ISG-020 ``Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk...

Assessing the need for an update of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using a SSHAC Level 1 study and the Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology

DOE PAGES

Payne, Suzette J.; Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Coppersmith, Ryan; ...

2017-08-23

A key decision for nuclear facilities is evaluating the need for an update of an existing seismic hazard analysis in light of new data and information that has become available since the time that the analysis was completed. We introduce the newly developed risk-informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Review Methodology (referred to as the SHPRM) and present how a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed in an implementation of this new methodology. The SHPRM offers a defensible and documented approach that considers both the changes in seismic hazard and engineering-based risk informationmore » of an existing nuclear facility to assess the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The SHPRM has seven evaluation criteria that are employed at specific analysis, decision, and comparison points which are applied to seismic design categories established for nuclear facilities in United States. The SHPRM is implemented using a SSHAC Level 1 study performed for the Idaho National Laboratory, USA. The implementation focuses on the first six of the seven evaluation criteria of the SHPRM which are all provided from the SSHAC Level 1 PSHA. Finally, to illustrate outcomes of the SHPRM that do not lead to the need for an update and those that do, the example implementations of the SHPRM are performed for nuclear facilities that have target performance goals expressed as the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at 1x10 -4, 4x10 -5 and 1x10 -5.« less

Assessing the need for an update of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using a SSHAC Level 1 study and the Seismic Hazard Periodic Reevaluation Methodology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Payne, Suzette J.; Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Coppersmith, Ryan

A key decision for nuclear facilities is evaluating the need for an update of an existing seismic hazard analysis in light of new data and information that has become available since the time that the analysis was completed. We introduce the newly developed risk-informed Seismic Hazard Periodic Review Methodology (referred to as the SHPRM) and present how a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed in an implementation of this new methodology. The SHPRM offers a defensible and documented approach that considers both the changes in seismic hazard and engineering-based risk informationmore » of an existing nuclear facility to assess the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The SHPRM has seven evaluation criteria that are employed at specific analysis, decision, and comparison points which are applied to seismic design categories established for nuclear facilities in United States. The SHPRM is implemented using a SSHAC Level 1 study performed for the Idaho National Laboratory, USA. The implementation focuses on the first six of the seven evaluation criteria of the SHPRM which are all provided from the SSHAC Level 1 PSHA. Finally, to illustrate outcomes of the SHPRM that do not lead to the need for an update and those that do, the example implementations of the SHPRM are performed for nuclear facilities that have target performance goals expressed as the mean annual frequency of unacceptable performance at 1x10 -4, 4x10 -5 and 1x10 -5.« less

State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis for oil and gas pipeline system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Aiwen; Chen, Kun; Wu, Jian

2010-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design. Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure, oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes, with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion, which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site. Different from a city’s water pipeline network, the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system. For the uniform confidence of seismic safety, a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk. Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude, the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia. The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan M S8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.

Seismic analysis for translational failure of landfills with retaining walls.

PubMed

Feng, Shi-Jin; Gao, Li-Ya

2010-11-01

In the seismic impact zone, seismic force can be a major triggering mechanism for translational failures of landfills. The scope of this paper is to develop a three-part wedge method for seismic analysis of translational failures of landfills with retaining walls. The approximate solution of the factor of safety can be calculated. Unlike previous conventional limit equilibrium methods, the new method is capable of revealing the effects of both the solid waste shear strength and the retaining wall on the translational failures of landfills during earthquake. Parameter studies of the developed method show that the factor of safety decreases with the increase of the seismic coefficient, while it increases quickly with the increase of the minimum friction angle beneath waste mass for various horizontal seismic coefficients. Increasing the minimum friction angle beneath the waste mass appears to be more effective than any other parameters for increasing the factor of safety under the considered condition. Thus, selecting liner materials with higher friction angle will considerably reduce the potential for translational failures of landfills during earthquake. The factor of safety gradually increases with the increase of the height of retaining wall for various horizontal seismic coefficients. A higher retaining wall is beneficial to the seismic stability of the landfill. Simply ignoring the retaining wall will lead to serious underestimation of the factor of safety. Besides, the approximate solution of the yield acceleration coefficient of the landfill is also presented based on the calculated method. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First seismic shear wave velocity profile of the lunar crust as extracted from the Apollo 17 active seismic data by wavefield gradient analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sollberger, David; Schmelzbach, Cedric; Robertsson, Johan O. A.; Greenhalgh, Stewart A.; Nakamura, Yosio; Khan, Amir

2016-04-01

We present a new seismic velocity model of the shallow lunar crust, including, for the first time, shear wave velocity information. So far, the shear wave velocity structure of the lunar near-surface was effectively unconstrained due to the complexity of lunar seismograms. Intense scattering and low attenuation in the lunar crust lead to characteristic long-duration reverberations on the seismograms. The reverberations obscure later arriving shear waves and mode conversions, rendering them impossible to identify and analyze. Additionally, only vertical component data were recorded during the Apollo active seismic experiments, which further compromises the identification of shear waves. We applied a novel processing and analysis technique to the data of the Apollo 17 lunar seismic profiling experiment (LSPE), which involved recording seismic energy generated by several explosive packages on a small areal array of four vertical component geophones. Our approach is based on the analysis of the spatial gradients of the seismic wavefield and yields key parameters such as apparent phase velocity and rotational ground motion as a function of time (depth), which cannot be obtained through conventional seismic data analysis. These new observables significantly enhance the data for interpretation of the recorded seismic wavefield and allow, for example, for the identification of S wave arrivals based on their lower apparent phase velocities and distinct higher amount of generated rotational motion relative to compressional (P-) waves. Using our methodology, we successfully identified pure-mode and mode-converted refracted shear wave arrivals in the complex LSPE data and derived a P- and S-wave velocity model of the shallow lunar crust at the Apollo 17 landing site. The extracted elastic-parameter model supports the current understanding of the lunar near-surface structure, suggesting a thin layer of low-velocity lunar regolith overlying a heavily fractured crust of basaltic

CORSSA: Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Michael, A. J.; Naylor, M.; Steacy, S.; Wiemer, S.; Zhuang, J.

2011-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the evaluation of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology-especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy-statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA, www.corssa.org). We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each will contain between four and eight articles. CORSSA now includes seven articles with an additional six in draft form along with forums for discussion, a glossary, and news about upcoming meetings, special issues, and recent papers. Each article is peer-reviewed and presents a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. We have also begun curating a collection of statistical seismology software packages.

Active seismic experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kovach, R. L.; Watkins, J. S.; Talwani, P.

1972-01-01

The Apollo 16 active seismic experiment (ASE) was designed to generate and monitor seismic waves for the study of the lunar near-surface structure. Several seismic energy sources are used: an astronaut-activated thumper device, a mortar package that contains rocket-launched grenades, and the impulse produced by the lunar module ascent. Analysis of some seismic signals recorded by the ASE has provided data concerning the near-surface structure at the Descartes landing site. Two compressional seismic velocities have so far been recognized in the seismic data. The deployment of the ASE is described, and the significant results obtained are discussed.

Cluster Computing For Real Time Seismic Array Analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martini, M.; Giudicepietro, F.

A seismic array is an instrument composed by a dense distribution of seismic sen- sors that allow to measure the directional properties of the wavefield (slowness or wavenumber vector) radiated by a seismic source. Over the last years arrays have been widely used in different fields of seismological researches. In particular they are applied in the investigation of seismic sources on volcanoes where they can be suc- cessfully used for studying the volcanic microtremor and long period events which are critical for getting information on the volcanic systems evolution. For this reason arrays could be usefully employed for the volcanoes monitoring, however the huge amount of data produced by this type of instruments and the processing techniques which are quite time consuming limited their potentiality for this application. In order to favor a direct application of arrays techniques to continuous volcano monitoring we designed and built a small PC cluster able to near real time computing the kinematics properties of the wavefield (slowness or wavenumber vector) produced by local seis- mic source. The cluster is composed of 8 Intel Pentium-III bi-processors PC working at 550 MHz, and has 4 Gigabytes of RAM memory. It runs under Linux operating system. The developed analysis software package is based on the Multiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm and is written in Fortran. The message-passing part is based upon the LAM programming environment package, an open-source imple- mentation of the Message Passing Interface (MPI). The developed software system includes modules devote to receiving date by internet and graphical applications for the continuous displaying of the processing results. The system has been tested with a data set collected during a seismic experiment conducted on Etna in 1999 when two dense seismic arrays have been deployed on the northeast and the southeast flanks of this volcano. A real time continuous acquisition system has been simulated by

Improving resolution of crosswell seismic section based on time-frequency analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, H.; Li, Y.

1994-12-31

According to signal theory, to improve resolution of seismic section is to extend high-frequency band of seismic signal. In cross-well section, sonic log can be regarded as a reliable source providing high-frequency information to the trace near the borehole. In such case, what to do is to introduce this high-frequency information into the whole section. However, neither traditional deconvolution algorithms nor some new inversion methods such as BCI (Broad Constraint Inversion) are satisfied because of high-frequency noise and nonuniqueness of inversion results respectively. To overcome their disadvantages, this paper presents a new algorithm based on Time-Frequency Analysis (TFA) technology whichmore » has been increasingly received much attention as an useful signal analysis too. Practical applications show that the new method is a stable scheme to improve resolution of cross-well seismic section greatly without decreasing Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR).« less

A Preliminary Tsunami vulnerability analysis for Bakirkoy district in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tufekci, Duygu; Lutfi Suzen, M.; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Zaytsev, Andrey

2016-04-01

Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis has major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas under extreme events has major importance for preparedness and development of mitigation strategies. The Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquakes as well as associated tsunamis. There are variety of coastal facilities such as ports, small craft harbors, and terminals for maritime transportation, water front roads and business centers mainly at North Coast of Marmara Sea in megacity Istanbul. A detailed vulnerability analysis for Yenikapi region and a detailed resilience analysis for Haydarpasa port in Istanbul have been studied in previously by Cankaya et al., (2015) and Aytore et al., (2015) in SATREPS project. In this study, the methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack given in Cankaya et al., (2015) is modified and applied to Bakirkoy district of Istanbul. Bakirkoy district is located at western part of Istanbul and faces to the North Coast of Marmara Sea from 28.77oE to 28.89oE. High resolution spatial dataset of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed. The bathymetry and topography database and the spatial dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the district are collated and utilized for tsunami numerical modeling and following vulnerability analysis. The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability assessment parameters in the district according to vulnerability and resilience are defined; and scored by implementation of a GIS based TVA with appropriate MCDA methods. The risk level is computed using tsunami intensity (level of flow depth from simulations) and TVA results at every location in Bakirkoy district. The preliminary results are presented and discussed

Appalachian Play Fairway Analysis Seismic Hazards Supporting Data

DOE Data Explorer

Frank Horowitz

2016-07-20

These are the data used in estimating the seismic hazards (both natural and induced) for candidate direct use geothermal locations in the Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis by Jordan et al. (2015). xMin,yMin -83.1407,36.7461 : xMax,yMax -71.5175,45.1729

Accuracy of three-dimensional seismic ground response analysis in time domain using nonlinear numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Fayun; Chen, Haibing; Huang, Maosong

2017-07-01

To provide appropriate uses of nonlinear ground response analysis for engineering practice, a three-dimensional soil column with a distributed mass system and a time domain numerical analysis were implemented on the OpenSees simulation platform. The standard mesh of a three-dimensional soil column was suggested to be satisfied with the specified maximum frequency. The layered soil column was divided into multiple sub-soils with a different viscous damping matrix according to the shear velocities as the soil properties were significantly different. It was necessary to use a combination of other one-dimensional or three-dimensional nonlinear seismic ground analysis programs to confirm the applicability of nonlinear seismic ground motion response analysis procedures in soft soil or for strong earthquakes. The accuracy of the three-dimensional soil column finite element method was verified by dynamic centrifuge model testing under different peak accelerations of the earthquake. As a result, nonlinear seismic ground motion response analysis procedures were improved in this study. The accuracy and efficiency of the three-dimensional seismic ground response analysis can be adapted to the requirements of engineering practice.

Design and analysis of fractional order seismic transducer for displacement and acceleration measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeraian, Parthasarathi; Gandhi, Uma; Mangalanathan, Umapathy

2018-04-01

Seismic transducers are widely used for measurement of displacement, velocity, and acceleration. This paper presents the design of seismic transducer in the fractional domain for the measurement of displacement and acceleration. The fractional order transfer function for seismic displacement and acceleration transducer are derived using Grünwald-Letnikov derivative. Frequency response analysis of fractional order seismic displacement transducer (FOSDT) and fractional order seismic acceleration transducer (FOSAT) are carried out for different damping ratio with the different fractional order, and the maximum dynamic measurement range is identified. The results demonstrate that fractional order seismic transducer has increased dynamic measurement range and less phase distortion as compared to the conventional seismic transducer even with a lower damping ratio. Time response of FOSDT and FOSAT are derived analytically in terms of Mittag-Leffler function, the effect of fractional behavior in the time domain is evaluated from the impulse and step response. The fractional order system is found to have significantly reduced overshoot as compared to the conventional transducer. The fractional order seismic transducer design proposed in this paper is illustrated with a design example for FOSDT and FOSAT. Finally, an electrical equivalent of FOSDT and FOSAT is considered, and its frequency response is found to be in close agreement with the proposed fractional order seismic transducer.

Anisotropic analysis for seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Y.; Hsu, K.

2011-12-01

Taiwan is located at the boundaries of Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. The movement of plate causes crustal uplift and lateral deformation to lead frequent earthquakes in the vicinity of Taiwan. The change of groundwater level trigged by earthquake has been observed and studied in Taiwan for many years. The change of groundwater may appear in oscillation and step changes. The former is caused by seismic waves. The latter is caused by the volumetric strain and reflects the strain status. Since the setting of groundwater monitoring well is easier and cheaper than the setting of strain gauge, the groundwater measurement may be used as a indication of stress. This research proposes the concept of seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring well and apply to DonHer station in Taiwan. Geostatistical method is used to analysis the anisotropy of seismic sensitivity. GIS is used to map the sensitive area of the existing groundwater monitoring well.

Aircraft vulnerability analysis by modeling and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willers, Cornelius J.; Willers, Maria S.; de Waal, Alta

2014-10-01

Infrared missiles pose a significant threat to civilian and military aviation. ManPADS missiles are especially dangerous in the hands of rogue and undisciplined forces. Yet, not all the launched missiles hit their targets; the miss being either attributable to misuse of the weapon or to missile performance restrictions. This paper analyses some of the factors affecting aircraft vulnerability and demonstrates a structured analysis of the risk and aircraft vulnerability problem. The aircraft-missile engagement is a complex series of events, many of which are only partially understood. Aircraft and missile designers focus on the optimal design and performance of their respective systems, often testing only in a limited set of scenarios. Most missiles react to the contrast intensity, but the variability of the background is rarely considered. Finally, the vulnerability of the aircraft depends jointly on the missile's performance and the doctrine governing the missile's launch. These factors are considered in a holistic investigation. The view direction, altitude, time of day, sun position, latitude/longitude and terrain determine the background against which the aircraft is observed. Especially high gradients in sky radiance occur around the sun and on the horizon. This paper considers uncluttered background scenes (uniform terrain and clear sky) and presents examples of background radiance at all view angles across a sphere around the sensor. A detailed geometrical and spatially distributed radiometric model is used to model the aircraft. This model provides the signature at all possible view angles across the sphere around the aircraft. The signature is determined in absolute terms (no background) and in contrast terms (with background). It is shown that the background significantly affects the contrast signature as observed by the missile sensor. A simplified missile model is constructed by defining the thrust and mass profiles, maximum seeker tracking rate, maximum

Preliminary vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood by Puerto Vallarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trejo-Gómez, E.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Ortiz, M.; Escudero, C. R.; CA-UdG-276 Sisvoc

2013-05-01

Jalisco coast is susceptible to local tsunami due to the occurrence of large earthquakes. In 1932 occurred three by largest earthquakes. Evidence suggests that one of them caused by offshore subsidence of sediments deposited by Armeria River. For the tsunamis 1932 have not been studied the seismic source. On October 9, 1995, occurred a large earthquake (Mw= 8.0) producing a tsunami with run up height up ≤ 5 m. This event affected Tenacatita Bay and many small villages along the coast of Jalisco and Colima. Using seismic source parameters, we simulated 1995 tsunami and estimated the maximum wave height. We compared the our results with 20 field measures 20 taked during 1995 along the south cost of Jalisco State, from Chalacatepec to Barra de Navidad. Similar seismic source parameters used for tsunami 1995 simulation was used as reference for simulating a hypothetical seismic source front Puerto Vallarta. We assumed that the fracture occurs in the gap for the north cost of Jalisco. Ten sites were distributed to cover the Banderas Bay, as theoretical pressure sensors, were estimated the maximum wave height and time to arrived at cost. After we delimited zones hazard zones by floods on digital model terrain, a graphic scale 1:20,000. At the moment, we have already included information by hazard caused by hypothetical tsunami in Puerto Vallarta. The hazard zones by flood were the north of Puerto Vallarta, as Ameca, El Salado, El Pitillal and Camarones. The initial wave height could be ≤ 1 m, 15 minutes after earthquake, in Pitillal zone. We estimated for Puerto Vallarta the maximum flood area was in El Salado zone, ≤ 2 km, with the maximum wave height > 3 m to ≤ 4.8 m at 25 and 75 minutes. We estimated a previous vulnerability evaluation by local tsunami and flood; it was based on the spatial distribution of socio-economic data from INEGI. We estimated a low vulnerability in El Salado and height vulnerability for El Pitillal and Ameca.

Utilizing Semantic Big Data for realizing a National-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chinthavali, Supriya; Shankar, Mallikarjun

Critical Infrastructure systems(CIs) such as energy, water, transportation and communication are highly interconnected and mutually dependent in complex ways. Robust modeling of CIs interconnections is crucial to identify vulnerabilities in the CIs. We present here a national-scale Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis System (IVAS) vision leveraging Se- mantic Big Data (SBD) tools, Big Data, and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools. We survey existing ap- proaches on vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructures and discuss relevant systems and tools aligned with our vi- sion. Next, we present a generic system architecture and discuss challenges including: (1) Constructing and manag- ing a CI network-of-networks graph,more » (2) Performing analytic operations at scale, and (3) Interactive visualization of ana- lytic output to generate meaningful insights. We argue that this architecture acts as a baseline to realize a national-scale network based vulnerability analysis system.« less

Seismic risk analysis for the Babcock and Wilcox facility, Leechburg, Pennsylvania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1977-10-21

The results of a detailed seismic risk analysis of the Babcock and Wilcox Plutonium Fuel Fabrication facility at Leechburg, Pennsylvania are presented. This report focuses on earthquakes; the other natural hazards, being addressed in separate reports, are severe weather (strong winds and tornados) and floods. The calculational method used is based on Cornell's work (1968); it has been previously applied to safety evaluations of major projects. The historical seismic record was established after a review of available literature, consultation with operators of local seismic arrays and examination of appropriate seismic data bases. Because of the aseismicity of the region aroundmore » the site, an analysis different from the conventional closest approach in a tectonic province was adapted. Earthquakes as far from the site as 1,000 km were included, as were the possibility of earthquakes at the site. In addition, various uncertainties in the input were explicitly considered in the analysis. The results of the risk analysis, which include a Bayesian estimate of the uncertainties, are presented, expressed as return period accelerations. The best estimate curve indicates that the Babcock and Wilcox facility will experience 0.05 g every 220 years and 0.10 g every 1400 years. The bounding curves roughly represent the one standard deviation confidence limits about the best estimate, reflecting the uncertainty in certain of the input. Detailed examination of the results show that the accelerations are very insensitive to the details of the source region geometries or the historical earthquake statistics in each region and that each of the source regions contributes almost equally to the cumulative risk at the site. If required for structural analysis, acceleration response spectra for the site can be constructed by scaling the mean response spectrum for alluvium in WASH 1255 by these peak accelerations.« less

The Effect Analysis of Strain Rate on Power Transmission Tower-Line System under Seismic Excitation

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenming

2014-01-01

The effect analysis of strain rate on power transmission tower-line system under seismic excitation is studied in this paper. A three-dimensional finite element model of a transmission tower-line system is created based on a real project. Using theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, incremental dynamic analysis of the power transmission tower-line system is conducted to investigate the effect of strain rate on the nonlinear responses of the transmission tower and line. The results show that the effect of strain rate on the transmission tower generally decreases the maximum top displacements, but it would increase the maximum base shear forces, and thus it is necessary to consider the effect of strain rate on the seismic analysis of the transmission tower. The effect of strain rate could be ignored for the seismic analysis of the conductors and ground lines, but the responses of the ground lines considering strain rate effect are larger than those of the conductors. The results could provide a reference for the seismic design of the transmission tower-line system. PMID:25105157

A Preliminary Tsunami Vulnerability Analysis for Yenikapi Region in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceren Cankaya, Zeynep; Suzen, Lutfi; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kolat, Cagil; Aytore, Betul; Zaytsev, Andrey

2015-04-01

One of the main requirements during post disaster recovery operations is to maintain proper transportation and fluent communication at the disaster areas. Ports and harbors are the main transportation hubs which must work with proper performance at all times especially after the disasters. Resilience of coastal utilities after earthquakes and tsunamis have major importance for efficient and proper rescue and recovery operations soon after the disasters. Istanbul is a mega city with its various coastal utilities located at the north coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapi region of Istanbul, there are critical coastal utilities and vulnerable coastal structures and critical activities occur daily. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, water front commercial and/or recreational structures are some of the examples of coastal utilization which are vulnerable against marine disasters. Therefore their vulnerability under tsunami or any other marine hazard to Yenikapi region of Istanbul is an important issue. In this study, a methodology of vulnerability analysis under tsunami attack is proposed with the applications to Yenikapi region. In the study, high resolution (1m) GIS database of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) is used and analyzed by using GIS implementation. The bathymetry and topography database and the vector dataset containing all buildings/structures/infrastructures in the study area are obtained for tsunami numerical modeling for the study area. GIS based tsunami vulnerability assessment is conducted by applying the Multi-criteria Decision Making Analysis (MCDA). The tsunami parameters from deterministically defined worst case scenarios are computed from the simulations using tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE. The vulnerability parameters in the region due to two different classifications i) vulnerability of buildings/structures and ii) vulnerability of (human) evacuation

Numerical simulation of bubble plumes and an analysis of their seismic attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Canping; Gou, Limin; You, Jiachun

2017-04-01

To study the bubble plume's seismic response characteristics, the model of a plume water body has been built in this article using the bubble-contained medium acoustic velocity model and the stochastic medium theory based on an analysis of both the acoustic characteristics of a bubble-contained water body and the actual features of a plume. The finite difference method is used for forward modelling, and the single-shot seismic record exhibits the characteristics of a scattered wave field generated by a plume. A meaningful conclusion is obtained by extracting seismic attributes from the pre-stack shot gather record of a plume. The values of the amplitude-related seismic attributes increase greatly as the bubble content goes up, and changes in bubble radius will not cause seismic attributes to change, which is primarily observed because the bubble content has a strong impact on the plume's acoustic velocity, while the bubble radius has a weak impact on the acoustic velocity. The above conclusion provides a theoretical reference for identifying hydrate plumes using seismic methods and contributes to further study on hydrate decomposition and migration, as well as on distribution of the methane bubble in seawater.

Bedload transport from spectral analysis of seismic noise near rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, L.; Finnegan, N. J.; Brodsky, E. E.

2010-12-01

Channel change in rivers is driven by bedload sediment transport. However, the nonlinear nature of sediment transport combined with the difficulty of making direct observations in rivers at flood hinder prediction of the timing and magnitude of bedload movement. Recent studies have shown that spectral analysis of seismic noise from seismometers near rivers illustrate a correlation between the relative amplitude of high frequency (>1 Hz) seismic noise and conditions for bedload transport, presumably from the energy transferred from clast collisions with the channel. However, a previous study in the Himalayas did not contain extensive bedload transport or discharge measurements, and the correspondence of seismic noise with proxy variables such as regional hydrologic and meteorologic data was not exact. A more complete understanding of the relationship between bedload transport and seismic noise would be valuable for extending the spatial and temporal extent of bedload data. To explore the direct relationship between bedload transport and seismic noise, we examine data from several seismic stations near the Trinity River in California, where the fluvial morphodynamics and bedload rating curves have been studied extensively. We compare the relative amplitude of the ambient seismic noise with records of water discharge and sediment transport. We also examine the noise at hourly, daily, and seasonal timescales to determine other possible sources of noise. We report the influence of variables such as local river slope, adjacent geology, anthropogenic noise, and distance from the river. The results illustrate the feasibility of using existing seismic arrays to sense radiated energy from processes of bedload transport. In addition, the results can be used to design future seismic array campaigns to optimize information about bedload transport. This technique provides great spatial and temporal coverage, and can be performed where direct bedload measurements are difficult or

Modernization of the Slovenian National Seismic Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidrih, R.; Godec, M.; Gosar, A.; Sincic, P.; Tasic, I.; Zivcic, M.

2003-04-01

The Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, the Seismology Office is responsible for the fast and reliable information about earthquakes, originating in the area of Slovenia and nearby. In the year 2000 the project Modernization of the Slovenian National Seismic Network started. The purpose of a modernized seismic network is to enable fast and accurate automatic location of earthquakes, to determine earthquake parameters and to collect data of local, regional and global earthquakes. The modernized network will be finished in the year 2004 and will consist of 25 Q730 remote broadband data loggers based seismic station subsystems transmitting in real-time data to the Data Center in Ljubljana, where the Seismology Office is located. The remote broadband station subsystems include 16 surface broadband seismometers CMG-40T, 5 broadband seismometers CMG-40T with strong motion accelerographs EpiSensor, 4 borehole broadband seismometers CMG-40T, all with accurate timing provided by GPS receivers. The seismic network will cover the entire Slovenian territory, involving an area of 20,256 km2. The network is planned in this way; more seismic stations will be around bigger urban centres and in regions with greater vulnerability (NW Slovenia, Krsko Brezice region). By the end of the year 2002, three old seismic stations were modernized and ten new seismic stations were built. All seismic stations transmit data to UNIX-based computers running Antelope system software. The data is transmitted in real time using TCP/IP protocols over the Goverment Wide Area Network . Real-time data is also exchanged with seismic networks in the neighbouring countries, where the data are collected from the seismic stations, close to the Slovenian border. A typical seismic station consists of the seismic shaft with the sensor and the data acquisition system and, the service shaft with communication equipment (modem, router) and power supply with a battery box. which provides energy in case

Evaluation of seismic performance of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings under near-field earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moniri, Hassan

2017-03-01

Near-field ground motions are significantly severely affected on seismic response of structure compared with far-field ground motions, and the reason is that the near-source forward directivity ground motions contain pulse-long periods. Therefore, the cumulative effects of far-fault records are minor. The damage and collapse of engineering structures observed in the last decades' earthquakes show the potential of damage in existing structures under near-field ground motions. One important subject studied by earthquake engineers as part of a performance-based approach is the determination of demand and collapse capacity under near-field earthquake. Different methods for evaluating seismic structural performance have been suggested along with and as part of the development of performance-based earthquake engineering. This study investigated the results of illustrious characteristics of near-fault ground motions on the seismic response of reinforced concrete (RC) structures, by the use of Incremental Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis (IDA) method. Due to the fact that various ground motions result in different intensity-versus-response plots, this analysis is done again under various ground motions in order to achieve significant statistical averages. The OpenSees software was used to conduct nonlinear structural evaluations. Numerical modelling showed that near-source outcomes cause most of the seismic energy from the rupture to arrive in a single coherent long-period pulse of motion and permanent ground displacements. Finally, a vulnerability of RC building can be evaluated against pulse-like near-fault ground motions effects.

Data management for geospatial vulnerability assessment of interdependencies in US power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shih, C.Y.; Scown, C.D.; Soibelman, L.

2009-09-15

Critical infrastructures maintain our society's stability, security, and quality of life. These systems are also interdependent, which means that the disruption of one infrastructure system can significantly impact the operation of other systems. Because of the heavy reliance on electricity production, it is important to assess possible vulnerabilities. Determining the source of these vulnerabilities can provide insight for risk management and emergency response efforts. This research uses data warehousing and visualization techniques to explore the interdependencies between coal mines, rail transportation, and electric power plants. By merging geospatial and nonspatial data, we are able to model the potential impacts ofmore » a disruption to one or more mines, rail lines, or power plants, and visually display the results using a geographical information system. A scenario involving a severe earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone is used to demonstrate the capabilities of the model when given input in the form of a potentially impacted area. This type of interactive analysis can help decision makers to understand the vulnerabilities of the coal distribution network and the potential impact it can have on electricity production.« less

Calibrating Nonlinear Soil Material Properties for Seismic Analysis Using Soil Material Properties Intended for Linear Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spears, Robert Edward; Coleman, Justin Leigh

2015-08-01

Seismic analysis of nuclear structures is routinely performed using guidance provided in “Seismic Analysis of Safety-Related Nuclear Structures and Commentary (ASCE 4, 1998).” This document, which is currently under revision, provides detailed guidance on linear seismic soil-structure-interaction (SSI) analysis of nuclear structures. To accommodate the linear analysis, soil material properties are typically developed as shear modulus and damping ratio versus cyclic shear strain amplitude. A new Appendix in ASCE 4-2014 (draft) is being added to provide guidance for nonlinear time domain SSI analysis. To accommodate the nonlinear analysis, a more appropriate form of the soil material properties includes shear stressmore » and energy absorbed per cycle versus shear strain. Ideally, nonlinear soil model material properties would be established with soil testing appropriate for the nonlinear constitutive model being used. However, much of the soil testing done for SSI analysis is performed for use with linear analysis techniques. Consequently, a method is described in this paper that uses soil test data intended for linear analysis to develop nonlinear soil material properties. To produce nonlinear material properties that are equivalent to the linear material properties, the linear and nonlinear model hysteresis loops are considered. For equivalent material properties, the shear stress at peak shear strain and energy absorbed per cycle should match when comparing the linear and nonlinear model hysteresis loops. Consequently, nonlinear material properties are selected based on these criteria.« less

An alternative approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the Aegean region using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherill, Graeme; Burton, Paul W.

2010-09-01

The Aegean is the most seismically active and tectonically complex region in Europe. Damaging earthquakes have occurred here throughout recorded history, often resulting in considerable loss of life. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is used to determine the level of ground motion likely to be exceeded in a given time period. Multiple random simulations of seismicity are generated to calculate, directly, the ground motion for a given site. Within the seismic hazard analysis we explore the impact of different seismic source models, incorporating both uniform zones and distributed seismicity. A new, simplified, seismic source model, derived from seismotectonic interpretation, is presented for the Aegean region. This is combined into the epistemic uncertainty analysis alongside existing source models for the region, and models derived by a K-means cluster analysis approach. Seismic source models derived using the K-means approach offer a degree of objectivity and reproducibility into the otherwise subjective approach of delineating seismic sources using expert judgment. Similar review and analysis is undertaken for the selection of peak ground acceleration (PGA) attenuation models, incorporating into the epistemic analysis Greek-specific models, European models and a Next Generation Attenuation model. Hazard maps for PGA on a "rock" site with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years are produced and different source and attenuation models are compared. These indicate that Greek-specific attenuation models, with their smaller aleatory variability terms, produce lower PGA hazard, whilst recent European models and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) model produce similar results. The Monte Carlo method is extended further to assimilate epistemic uncertainty into the hazard calculation, thus integrating across several appropriate source and PGA attenuation models. Site condition and fault-type are also integrated into the hazard

Building an educational seismic network in Romanian schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Bogdan; Tataru, Dragos; Grecu, Bogdan; Ionescu, Constantin; Bican-Brisan, Nicoleta; Neagoe, Cristian

2014-05-01

Understanding the earthquake phenomena and their effects is an important step toward the education of population and aims to raise the awareness about the earthquake risk and possible mitigation actions. In this sense, The Romanian Educational Seismic Network project represents an efficient communication tool, allowing teaching and learning about the earthquakes and seismic wave impact through experimental practices and educational activities. The seismic network consist of nine SEP seismometers installed in high-schools from the most important seismic areas (Vrancea, Banat, Făgăraş, Dobrogea), vulnerable cities (Bucharest, Iasi) or high populated places (Cluj, Sibiu, Timisoara, Zalău) and is coordinated by the National Institute of Earth Physics from Bucharest. Once installed, the seismic network is the starting point of activities for students through an e-learning platform. Some objectives are aimed: - To train students and teachers how to make analysis and interpretation of seismological data; - To make science more interesting for students; - To improve the participation rates in physical sciences for students; - To raise awareness of geoscience as a scientific discipline for pre-university students; - To promote the installation and effective use of educational seismographs and seismic data; - To reinforce and develop relationships between participating schools and research institutes; - To create an earthquake database this will be used by students and teachers for educational purposes. Different types of practical activities using educational seismometer, designed by researchers for students, are described in educational materials and in the web platform project. Also we encourage the teachers from the participating schools to share their experiences and produce new didactic tools for the classroom. This collaborative work could illustrate the conjugated efforts of researchers and teachers for a better education and awareness of the risk culture

Dynamics of the Oso-Steelhead landslide from broadband seismic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekström, G.

2015-06-01

We carry out a combined analysis of the short- and long-period seismic signals generated by the devastating Oso-Steelhead landslide that occurred on 22 March 2014. The seismic records show that the Oso-Steelhead landslide was not a single slope failure, but a succession of multiple failures distinguished by two major collapses that occurred approximately 3 min apart. The first generated long-period surface waves that were recorded at several proximal stations. We invert these long-period signals for the forces acting at the source, and obtain estimates of the first failure runout and kinematics, as well as its mass after calibration against the mass-centre displacement estimated from remote-sensing imagery. Short-period analysis of both events suggests that the source dynamics of the second event is more complex than the first. No distinct long-period surface waves were recorded for the second failure, which prevents inversion for its source parameters. However, by comparing the seismic energy of the short-period waves generated by both events we are able to estimate the volume of the second. Our analysis suggests that the volume of the second failure is about 15-30% of the total landslide volume, giving a total volume mobilized by the two events between 7 × 106 and 10 × 106 m3, in agreement with estimates from ground observations and lidar mapping.

Uncertainty analysis in seismic tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owoc, Bartosz; Majdański, Mariusz

2017-04-01

Velocity field from seismic travel time tomography depends on several factors like regularization, inversion path, model parameterization etc. The result also strongly depends on an initial velocity model and precision of travel times picking. In this research we test dependence on starting model in layered tomography and compare it with effect of picking precision. Moreover, in our analysis for manual travel times picking the uncertainty distribution is asymmetric. This effect is shifting the results toward faster velocities. For calculation we are using JIVE3D travel time tomographic code. We used data from geo-engineering and industrial scale investigations, which were collected by our team from IG PAS.

Seismic fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems including the impact of differential ground subsidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pineda Porras, Omar Andrey; Ordaz, Mario

2009-01-01

Though Differential Ground Subsidence (DGS) impacts the seismic response of segmented buried pipelines augmenting their vulnerability, fragility formulations to estimate repair rates under such condition are not available in the literature. Physical models to estimate pipeline seismic damage considering other cases of permanent ground subsidence (e.g. faulting, tectonic uplift, liquefaction, and landslides) have been extensively reported, not being the case of DGS. The refinement of the study of two important phenomena in Mexico City - the 1985 Michoacan earthquake scenario and the sinking of the city due to ground subsidence - has contributed to the analysis of the interrelation ofmore » pipeline damage, ground motion intensity, and DGS; from the analysis of the 48-inch pipeline network of the Mexico City's Water System, fragility formulations for segmented buried pipeline systems for two DGS levels are proposed. The novel parameter PGV{sup 2}/PGA, being PGV peak ground velocity and PGA peak ground acceleration, has been used as seismic parameter in these formulations, since it has shown better correlation to pipeline damage than PGV alone according to previous studies. By comparing the proposed fragilities, it is concluded that a change in the DGS level (from Low-Medium to High) could increase the pipeline repair rates (number of repairs per kilometer) by factors ranging from 1.3 to 2.0; being the higher the seismic intensity the lower the factor.« less

SHAKING TABLE TEST AND EFFECTIVE STRESS ANALYSIS ON SEISMIC PERFORMANCE WITH SEISMIC ISOLATION RUBBER TO THE INTERMEDIATE PART OF PILE FOUNDATION IN LIQUEFACTION

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Kunihiko; Otsuka, Hisanori; Mitou, Masaaki

The pile foundation is heavily damaged at the boundary division of the ground types, liquefied ground and non-liquefied ground, during an earthquake and there is a possibility of the collapse of the piles. In this study, we conduct a shaking table test and effective stress analysis of the influence of soil liquefaction and the seismic inertial force exerted on the pile foundation. When the intermediate part of the pile, there is at the boundary division, is subjected to section force, this part increases in size as compared to the pile head in certain instances. Further, we develop a seismic resistance method for a pile foundation in liquefaction using seismic isolation rubber and it is shown the middle part seismic isolation system is very effective.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Italian Seaports Using GIS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolomei, Anna; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

Seaports are crucial elements in the export and import of goods and/or on the flow of travellers in the tourism industry of many industrialised nations included Italy. Experience gained from recent earthquakes (e.g. 1989 Loma Prieta in USA, 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu and 2003 Tokachi-Oki in Japan) have dramatically demonstrated the seismic vulnerability of seaport structures and the severe damage that can be caused by ground shaking. In Italy, the Department of Civil Protection has funded a research project to develop a methodology for the seismic design of new marginal wharves and assessment of existing structures at seaports located in areas ofmore » medium or high seismicity. This paper shows part of the results of this research project, currently underway, with particular reference to the seismic risk assessment through an interactive, geographically referenced database (GIS). Standard risk assessment have been carried out for the Gioia Tauro port in Calabria (Italy) using the empirical curves implemented by the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS, 2004)« less

Regional Characterization of Tokyo Metoropolitan area using a highly-dense seismic netwok(MeSO-net)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, N.; Nakagawa, S.; Sakai, S.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Ishikawa, M.; Ishibe, T.; Kimura, H.; Honda, R.

2014-12-01

We have developed　a dense seismic network, MeSO-net (Metropolitan Seismic Observation network), since 2007 in the greater Tokyo urban region　under the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area (FY2007-FY2011) and Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters (FY2012-FY2016)( Hirata et al., 2009). So far we have acquired more than 120TB continuous seismic data form MeSO-net which consists of about 300 seismic stations. Using MeSO-net data, we obtain clear P- and S- wave velocity tomograms (Nakagawa et al., 2010) and Qp, Qs tomograms (Panayotopoulos et al., 2014) which show a clear image of Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) and PAcific Plate (PAP). A depth to the top of PSP, 20 to 30 km beneath northern part of Tokyo bay, is about 10 km shallower than previous estimates based on the distribution of seismicity (Ishida, 1992). This shallower plate geometry changes estimations of strong ground motion for seismic hazards analysis within the Tokyo region. Based on elastic wave velocities of rocks and minerals, we interpreted the tomographic images as petrologic images. Tomographic images revealed the presence of two stepwise velocity increase of the top layer of the subducting PSP slab. Because strength of the serpentinized peridotite is not large enough for brittle fracture, if the area is smaller than previously estimated, a possible area of the large thrust fault on the upper surface of PSP can be larger than previously thought. Change of seismicity rate after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake suggests change of stressing rate in greater Tokyo. Quantitative analysis of MeSO-net data shows significant increase of rate of earthquakes that have a fault orientation favorable to increasing Coulomb stress after the Tohoku-oki event.

Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Z.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

Object Classification Based on Analysis of Spectral Characteristics of Seismic Signal Envelopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morozov, Yu. V.; Spektor, A. A.

2017-11-01

A method for classifying moving objects having a seismic effect on the ground surface is proposed which is based on statistical analysis of the envelopes of received signals. The values of the components of the amplitude spectrum of the envelopes obtained applying Hilbert and Fourier transforms are used as classification criteria. Examples illustrating the statistical properties of spectra and the operation of the seismic classifier are given for an ensemble of objects of four classes (person, group of people, large animal, vehicle). It is shown that the computational procedures for processing seismic signals are quite simple and can therefore be used in real-time systems with modest requirements for computational resources.

Vulnerability Analysis and Evaluation of Urban Road System in Tianjin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y. Q.; Wu, X.

In recent years, with the development of economy, the road construction of our country has entered into a period of rapid growth. The road transportation network has been expanding and the risk of disasters is increasing. In this paper we study the vulnerability of urban road system in Tianjin. After analyzed many risk factors of the urban road system security, including road construction, road traffic and the natural environment, we proposed an evaluation index of vulnerability of urban road system and established the corresponding evaluation index system. Based on the results of analysis and comprehensive evaluation, appropriate improvement measures and suggestions which may reduce the vulnerability of the road system and improve the safety and reliability of the road system are proposed.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a nuclear power plant site in southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, Andréia Abreu Diniz; Assumpção, Marcelo; Bommer, Julian J.; Drouet, Stéphane; Riccomini, Claudio; Prates, Carlos L. M.

2018-05-01

A site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for the only nuclear power plant site in Brazil, located 130 km southwest of Rio de Janeiro at Angra dos Reis. Logic trees were developed for both the seismic source characterisation and ground-motion characterisation models, in both cases seeking to capture the appreciable ranges of epistemic uncertainty with relatively few branches. This logic-tree structure allowed the hazard calculations to be performed efficiently while obtaining results that reflect the inevitable uncertainty in long-term seismic hazard assessment in this tectonically stable region. An innovative feature of the study is an additional seismic source zone added to capture the potential contributions of characteristics earthquake associated with geological faults in the region surrounding the coastal site.

Seismic fragility assessment of low-rise stone masonry buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo-El-Ezz, Ahmad; Nollet, Marie-José; Nastev, Miroslav

2013-03-01

Many historic buildings in old urban centers in Eastern Canada are made of stone masonry reputed to be highly vulnerable to seismic loads. Seismic risk assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first step in the risk mitigation process to provide adequate planning for retrofit and preservation of historical urban centers. This paper focuses on development of analytical displacement-based fragility curves reflecting the characteristics of existing stone masonry buildings in Eastern Canada. The old historic center of Quebec City has been selected as a typical study area. The standard fragility analysis combines the inelastic spectral displacement, a structure-dependent earthquake intensity measure, and the building damage state correlated to the induced building displacement. The proposed procedure consists of a three-step development process: (1) mechanics-based capacity model, (2) displacement-based damage model and (3) seismic demand model. The damage estimation for a uniform hazard scenario of 2% in 50 years probability of exceedance indicates that slight to moderate damage is the most probable damage experienced by these stone masonry buildings. Comparison is also made with fragility curves implicit in the seismic risk assessment tools Hazus and ELER. Hazus shows the highest probability of the occurrence of no to slight damage, whereas the highest probability of extensive and complete damage is predicted with ELER. This comparison shows the importance of the development of fragility curves specific to the generic construction characteristics in the study area and emphasizes the need for critical use of regional risk assessment tools and generated results.

Sideband analysis and seismic detection in a large ring laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stedman, G. E.; Li, Z.; Bilger, H. R.

1995-08-01

A ring laser unlocked by the Earth's Sagnac effect has attained a frequency resolution of 1 part in 3 \\times 1021 and a rotational resolution of 300 prad. We discuss both theoretically and experimentally the sideband structure of the Earth rotation-induced spectral line induced in the microhertz-hertz region by frequency modulation associated with extra mechanical motion, such as seismic events. The relative sideband height is an absolute measure of the rotational amplitude of that Fourier component. An initial analysis is given of the ring laser record from the Arthur's Pass-Coleridge seismic event of 18 June 1994.

Seismic refraction analysis: the path forward

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haines, Seth S.; Zelt, Colin; Doll, William

2012-01-01

Seismic Refraction Methods: Unleashing the Potential and Understanding the Limitations; Tucson, Arizona, 29 March 2012 A workshop focused on seismic refraction methods took place on 29 May 2012, associated with the 2012 Symposium on the Application of Geophysics to Engineering and Environmental Problems. This workshop was convened to assess the current state of the science and discuss paths forward, with a primary focus on near-surface problems but with an eye on all applications. The agenda included talks on these topics from a number of experts interspersed with discussion and a dedicated discussion period to finish the day. Discussion proved lively at times, and workshop participants delved into many topics central to seismic refraction work.

Seismic vulnerability: theory and application to Algerian buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mebarki, Ahmed; Boukri, Mehdi; Laribi, Abderrahmane; Farsi, Mohammed; Belazougui, Mohamed; Kharchi, Fattoum

2014-04-01

results to the observed damages. For pre-earthquake analysis, the methodology widely used around the world relies on the prior calibration of the seismic response of the structures under given expected scenarios. As the structural response is governed by the constitutive materials and structural typology as well as the seismic input and soil conditions, the damage prediction depends intimately on the accuracy of the so-called fragility curve and response spectrum established for each type of structure (RC framed structures, confined or unconfined masonry, etc.) and soil (hard rock, soft soil, etc.). In the present study, the adaptation to Algerian buildings concerns the specific soil conditions as well as the structural dynamic response. The theoretical prediction of the expected damages is helpful for the calibration of the methodology. Thousands (˜3,700) of real structures and the damages caused by the earthquake (Algeria, Boumerdes: Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003) are considered for the a posteriori calibration and validation process. The theoretical predictions show the importance of the elastic response spectrum, the local soil conditions, and the structural typology. Although the observed and predicted categories of damage are close, it appears that the existing form used for the visual damage inspection would still require further improvements, in order to allow easy evaluation and identification of the damage level. These methods coupled to databases, and GIS tools could be helpful for the local and technical authorities during the post-earthquake evaluation process: real time information on the damage extent at urban or regional scales as well as the extent of losses and the required resources for reconstruction, evacuation, strengthening, etc.

Planning Tools For Seismic Risk Mitigation. Rules And Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Paoli, Rosa Grazia

2008-07-08

Recently, Italian urban planning research in the field of seismic risk mitigation are renewing. In particular, it promotes strategies that integrate urban rehabilitation and aseismic objectives, and also politicizes that are directed to revitalizes urban systems, coupling physical renewal and socio-economic development.In Italy the first law concerning planning for seismic mitigation dates back 1974, the law n. 64 'Regulation for buildings with particular rules for the seismic areas' where the rules for buildings in seismic areas concerning also the local hazard. This law, in fact, forced the municipalities to acquire, during the formation of the plans, a preventive opinion ofmore » compatibility between planning conditions and geomorphology conditions of the territory. From this date the conviction that the seismic risk must be considered inside the territorial planning especially in terms of strategies of mitigation has been strengthened.The town planners have started to take an interest in seismic risk in the [80]s when the Irpinia's earthquake took place. The researches developed after this earthquake have established that the principal cause of the collapse of buildings are due to from the wrong location of urban settlements (on slopes or crowns) After Irpinia's earthquake the first researches on seismic risk mitigation, in particular on the aspects related to the hazards and to the urban vulnerability were made.« less

Kinematic Seismic Rupture Parameters from a Doppler Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, Bento; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Borges, José F.

2010-05-01

The radiation emitted from extended seismic sources, mainly when the rupture spreads in preferred directions, presents spectral deviations as a function of the observation location. This aspect, unobserved to point sources, and named as directivity, are manifested by an increase in the frequency and amplitude of seismic waves when the rupture occurs in the direction of the seismic station and a decrease in the frequency and amplitude if it occurs in the opposite direction. The model of directivity that supports the method is a Doppler analysis based on a kinematic source model of rupture and wave propagation through a structural medium with spherical symmetry [1]. A unilateral rupture can be viewed as a sequence of shocks produced along certain paths on the fault. According this model, the seismic record at any point on the Earth's surface contains a signature of the rupture process that originated the recorded waveform. Calculating the rupture direction and velocity by a general Doppler equation, - the goal of this work - using a dataset of common time-delays read from waveforms recorded at different distances around the epicenter, requires the normalization of measures to a standard value of slowness. This normalization involves a non-linear inversion that we solve numerically using an iterative least-squares approach. The evaluation of the performance of this technique was done through a set of synthetic and real applications. We present the application of the method at four real case studies, the following earthquakes: Arequipa, Peru (Mw = 8.4, June 23, 2001); Denali, AK, USA (Mw = 7.8; November 3, 2002); Zemmouri-Boumerdes, Algeria (Mw = 6.8, May 21, 2003); and Sumatra, Indonesia (Mw = 9.3, December 26, 2004). The results obtained from the dataset of the four earthquakes agreed, in general, with the values presented by other authors using different methods and data. [1] Caldeira B., Bezzeghoud M, Borges JF, 2009; DIRDOP: a directivity approach to determining

Application of Visual Attention in Seismic Attribute Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, M.; Gu, H.; Wang, F.

2016-12-01

It has been proved that seismic attributes can be used to predict reservoir. The joint of multi-attribute and geological statistics, data mining, artificial intelligence, further promote the development of the seismic attribute analysis. However, the existing methods tend to have multiple solutions and insufficient generalization ability, which is mainly due to the complex relationship between seismic data and geological information, and undoubtedly own partly to the methods applied. Visual attention is a mechanism model of the human visual system which can concentrate on a few significant visual objects rapidly, even in a mixed scene. Actually, the model qualify good ability of target detection and recognition. In our study, the targets to be predicted are treated as visual objects, and an object representation based on well data is made in the attribute dimensions. Then in the same attribute space, the representation is served as a criterion to search the potential targets outside the wells. This method need not predict properties by building up a complicated relation between attributes and reservoir properties, but with reference to the standard determined before. So it has pretty good generalization ability, and the problem of multiple solutions can be weakened by defining the threshold of similarity.

A situational analysis of priority disaster hazards in Uganda: findings from a hazard and vulnerability analysis.

PubMed

Mayega, R W; Wafula, M R; Musenero, M; Omale, A; Kiguli, J; Orach, G C; Kabagambe, G; Bazeyo, W

2013-06-01

Most countries in sub-Saharan Africa have not conducted a disaster risk analysis. Hazards and vulnerability analyses provide vital information that can be used for development of risk reduction and disaster response plans. The purpose of this study was to rank disaster hazards for Uganda, as a basis for identifying the priority hazards to guide disaster management planning. The study as conducted in Uganda, as part of a multi-country assessment. A hazard, vulnerability and capacity analysis was conducted in a focus group discussion of 7 experts representing key stakeholder agencies in disaster management in Uganda. A simple ranking method was used to rank the probability of occurance of 11 top hazards, their potential impact and the level vulnerability of people and infrastructure. In-terms of likelihood of occurance and potential impact, the top ranked disaster hazards in Uganda are: 1) Epidemics of infectious diseases, 2) Drought/famine, 3) Conflict and environmental degradation in that order. In terms of vulnerability, the top priority hazards to which people and infrastructure were vulnerable were: 1) Conflicts, 2) Epidemics, 3) Drought/famine and, 4) Environmental degradation in that order. Poverty, gender, lack of information, and lack of resilience measures were some of the factors promoting vulnerability to disasters. As Uganda develops a disaster risk reduction and response plan, it ought to prioritize epidemics of infectious diseases, drought/famine, conflics and environmental degradation as the priority disaster hazards.

A user exposure based approach for non-structural road network vulnerability analysis

PubMed Central

Jin, Lei; Wang, Haizhong; Yu, Le; Liu, Lin

2017-01-01

Aiming at the dense urban road network vulnerability without structural negative consequences, this paper proposes a novel non-structural road network vulnerability analysis framework. Three aspects of the framework are mainly described: (i) the rationality of non-structural road network vulnerability, (ii) the metrics for negative consequences accounting for variant road conditions, and (iii) the introduction of a new vulnerability index based on user exposure. Based on the proposed methodology, a case study in the Sioux Falls network which was usually threatened by regular heavy snow during wintertime is detailedly discussed. The vulnerability ranking of links of Sioux Falls network with respect to heavy snow scenario is identified. As a result of non-structural consequences accompanied by conceivable degeneration of network, there are significant increases in generalized travel time costs which are measurements for “emotionally hurt” of topological road network. PMID:29176832

The contribution of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia to seismic hazard and risk assessment in the Central Asian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, S.; Bindi, D.; Haberland, C. A.; Pittore, M.; Pilz, M.; Rosenau, M.; Schurr, B.; Wieland, M.; Yuan, X.

2012-12-01

Central Asia has one of the world's highest levels of earthquake hazard, owing to its exceptionally high deformation rates. Moreover, vulnerability to natural disasters in general is increasing, due to rising populations and a growing dependence on complex lifelines and technology. Therefore, there is an urgent need to undertake seismic hazard and risk assessment in this region, while at the same time improving upon existing methodologies, including the consideration of temporal variability in the seismic hazard, and in structural and social vulnerability. Over the last few years, the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), in collaboration with local partners, has initiated a number of scientific activities within the framework of the Global Change Observatory Central Asia (GCO-CA). The work is divided into projects with specific concerns: - The installation and maintenance of the Central-Asian Real-time Earthquake MOnitoring Network (CAREMON) and the setup of a permanent wireless mesh network for structural health monitoring in Bishkek. - The TIPAGE and TIPTIMON projects focus on the geodynamics of the Tien-Shan, Pamir and Hindu Kush region, the deepest and most active intra-continental subduction zone in the world. The work covers time scales from millions of years to short-term snapshots based on geophysical measurements of seismotectonic activity and of the physical properties of the crust and upper mantle, as well as their coupling with other surface processes (e.g., landslides). - Existing risk analysis methods assume time-independent earthquake hazard and risk, although temporal changes are likely to occur due to, for example, co- and post-seismic changes in the regional stress field. We therefore aim to develop systematic time-dependent hazard and risk analysis methods in order to undertake the temporal quantification of earthquake activity (PROGRESS). - To improve seismic hazard assessment for better loss estimation, detailed site effects studies

On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience.

PubMed

Aven, Terje

2011-04-01

Recently, considerable attention has been paid to a systems-based approach to risk, vulnerability, and resilience analysis. It is argued that risk, vulnerability, and resilience are inherently and fundamentally functions of the states of the system and its environment. Vulnerability is defined as the manifestation of the inherent states of the system that can be subjected to a natural hazard or be exploited to adversely affect that system, whereas resilience is defined as the ability of the system to withstand a major disruption within acceptable degradation parameters and to recover within an acceptable time, and composite costs, and risks. Risk, on the other hand, is probability based, defined by the probability and severity of adverse effects (i.e., the consequences). In this article, we look more closely into this approach. It is observed that the key concepts are inconsistent in the sense that the uncertainty (probability) dimension is included for the risk definition but not for vulnerability and resilience. In the article, we question the rationale for this inconsistency. The suggested approach is compared with an alternative framework that provides a logically defined structure for risk, vulnerability, and resilience, where all three concepts are incorporating the uncertainty (probability) dimension. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Seismic Fragility Analysis of a Degraded Condensate Storage Tank

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nie, J.; Braverman, J.; Hofmayer, C.

2011-05-16

The Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) and Brookhaven National Laboratory are conducting a collaborative research project to develop seismic capability evaluation technology for degraded structures and components in nuclear power plants (NPPs). One of the goals of this collaboration endeavor is to develop seismic fragility analysis methods that consider the potential effects of age-related degradation of structures, systems, and components (SSCs). The essential part of this collaboration is aimed at achieving a better understanding of the effects of aging on the performance of SSCs and ultimately on the safety of NPPs. A recent search of the degradation occurrences ofmore » structures and passive components (SPCs) showed that the rate of aging related degradation in NPPs was not significantly large but increasing, as the plants get older. The slow but increasing rate of degradation of SPCs can potentially affect the safety of the older plants and become an important factor in decision making in the current trend of extending the operating license period of the plants (e.g., in the U.S. from 40 years to 60 years, and even potentially to 80 years). The condition and performance of major aged NPP structures such as the containment contributes to the life span of a plant. A frequent misconception of such low degradation rate of SPCs is that such degradation may not pose significant risk to plant safety. However, under low probability high consequence initiating events, such as large earthquakes, SPCs that have slowly degraded over many years could potentially affect plant safety and these effects need to be better understood. As part of the KAERI-BNL collaboration, a condensate storage tank (CST) was analyzed to estimate its seismic fragility capacities under various postulated degradation scenarios. CSTs were shown to have a significant impact on the seismic core damage frequency of a nuclear power plant. The seismic fragility capacity of the CST was

Vulnerability analysis methods for road networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bíl, Michal; Vodák, Rostislav; Kubeček, Jan; Rebok, Tomáš; Svoboda, Tomáš

2014-05-01

Road networks rank among the most important lifelines of modern society. They can be damaged by either random or intentional events. Roads are also often affected by natural hazards, the impacts of which are both direct and indirect. Whereas direct impacts (e.g. roads damaged by a landslide or due to flooding) are localized in close proximity to the natural hazard occurrence, the indirect impacts can entail widespread service disabilities and considerable travel delays. The change in flows in the network may affect the population living far from the places originally impacted by the natural disaster. These effects are primarily possible due to the intrinsic nature of this system. The consequences and extent of the indirect costs also depend on the set of road links which were damaged, because the road links differ in terms of their importance. The more robust (interconnected) the road network is, the less time is usually needed to secure the serviceability of an area hit by a disaster. These kinds of networks also demonstrate a higher degree of resilience. Evaluating road network structures is therefore essential in any type of vulnerability and resilience analysis. There are a range of approaches used for evaluation of the vulnerability of a network and for identification of the weakest road links. Only few of them are, however, capable of simulating the impacts of the simultaneous closure of numerous links, which often occurs during a disaster. The primary problem is that in the case of a disaster, which usually has a large regional extent, the road network may remain disconnected. The majority of the commonly used indices use direct computation of the shortest paths or time between OD (origin - destination) pairs and therefore cannot be applied when the network breaks up into two or more components. Since extensive break-ups often occur in cases of major disasters, it is important to study the network vulnerability in these cases as well, so that appropriate

The social psychology of seismic hazard adjustment: re-evaluating the international literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solberg, C.; Rossetto, T.; Joffe, H.

2010-08-01

The majority of people at risk from earthquakes do little or nothing to reduce their vulnerability. Over the past 40 years social scientists have tried to predict and explain levels of seismic hazard adjustment using models from behavioural sciences such as psychology. The present paper is the first to synthesise the major findings from the international literature on psychological correlates and causes of seismic adjustment at the level of the individual and the household. It starts by reviewing research on seismic risk perception. Next, it looks at norms and normative beliefs, focusing particularly on issues of earthquake protection responsibility and trust between risk stakeholders. It then considers research on attitudes towards seismic adjustment attributes, specifically beliefs about efficacy, control and fate. It concludes that an updated model of seismic adjustment must give the issues of norms, trust, power and identity a more prominent role. These have been only sparsely represented in the social psychological literature to date.

Vulnerability analysis and critical areas identification of the power systems under terrorist attacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Zhao, Mingwei; Min, Xu

2017-05-01

This paper takes central China power grid (CCPG) as an example, and analyzes the vulnerability of the power systems under terrorist attacks. To simulate the intelligence of terrorist attacks, a method of critical attack area identification according to community structures is introduced. Meanwhile, three types of vulnerability models and the corresponding vulnerability metrics are given for comparative analysis. On this basis, influence of terrorist attacks on different critical areas is studied. Identifying the vulnerability of different critical areas will be conducted. At the same time, vulnerabilities of critical areas under different tolerance parameters and different vulnerability models are acquired and compared. Results show that only a few number of vertex disruptions may cause some critical areas collapse completely, they can generate great performance losses the whole systems. Further more, the variation of vulnerability values under different scenarios is very large. Critical areas which can cause greater damage under terrorist attacks should be given priority of protection to reduce vulnerability. The proposed method can be applied to analyze the vulnerability of other infrastructure systems, they can help decision makers search mitigation action and optimum protection strategy.

A Parametric Study of Nonlinear Seismic Response Analysis of Transmission Line Structures

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanming; Yi, Zhenhua

2014-01-01

A parametric study of nonlinear seismic response analysis of transmission line structures subjected to earthquake loading is studied in this paper. The transmission lines are modeled by cable element which accounts for the nonlinearity of the cable based on a real project. Nonuniform ground motions are generated using a stochastic approach based on random vibration analysis. The effects of multicomponent ground motions, correlations among multicomponent ground motions, wave travel, coherency loss, and local site on the responses of the cables are investigated using nonlinear time history analysis method, respectively. The results show the multicomponent seismic excitations should be considered, but the correlations among multicomponent ground motions could be neglected. The wave passage effect has a significant influence on the responses of the cables. The change of the degree of coherency loss has little influence on the response of the cables, but the responses of the cables are affected significantly by the effect of coherency loss. The responses of the cables change little with the degree of the difference of site condition changing. The effect of multicomponent ground motions, wave passage, coherency loss, and local site should be considered for the seismic design of the transmission line structures. PMID:25133215

Fractal analysis of earthquake swarms of Vogtland/NW-Bohemia intraplate seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittag, Reinhard J.

2003-03-01

The special type of intraplate microseismicity with swarm-like occurrence of earthquakes within the Vogtland/NW-Bohemian Region is analysed to reveal the nature and the origin of the seismogenic regime. The long-term data set of continuous seismic monitoring since 1962, including more than 26000 events within a range of about 5 units of local magnitude, provides an unique database for statistical investigations. Most earthquakes occur in narrow hypocentral volumes (clusters) within the lower part of the upper crust, but also single event occurrence outside of spatial clusters is observed. Temporal distribution of events is concentrated in clusters (swarms), which last some days until few month in dependence of intensity. Since 1962 three strong swarms occurred (1962, 1985/86, 2000), including two seismic cycles. Spatial clusters are distributed along a fault system of regional extension (Leipzig-Regensburger Störung), which is supposed to act as the joint tectonic fracture zone for the whole seismogenic region. Seismicity is analysed by fractal analysis, suggesting a unifractal behaviour of seismicity and uniform character of seismotectonic regime for the whole region. A tendency of decreasing fractal dimension values is observed for temporal distribution of earthquakes, indicating an increasing degree of temporal clustering from swarm to swarm. Following the idea of earthquake triggering by magma intrusions and related fluid and gas release into the tectonically pre-stressed parts of the crust, a steady increased intensity of intrusion and/or fluid and gas release might account for that observation. Additionally, seismic parameters for Vogtland/NW-Bohemia intraplate seismicity are compared with an adequate data set of mining-induced seismicity in a nearby mine of Lubin/Poland and with synthetic data sets to evaluate parameter estimation. Due to different seismogenic regime of tectonic and induced seismicity, significant differences between b-values and temporal

Seismic Analysis of the 2017 Oroville Dam Spillway Erosion Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodling, P.; Lekic, V.; Prestegaard, K. L.

2017-12-01

The outflow channel of the northern California (USA) Oroville Dam suffered catastrophic erosion damage in February and March, 2017. High discharges released through the spillway (up to 3,000 m3/s) caused rapid spillway erosion, forming a deep chasm. A repeat LiDAR survey obtained from the California Department of Water Resources indicates that the chasm eroded to a depth of 48 meters. A three-component broadband seismometer (STS-1) operated by the Berkeley Digital Seismological Network recorded microseismic energy produced by the flowing water, providing a natural laboratory to test methods for seismically monitoring sudden catastrophic floods and erosion. In this study, we evaluate the three-component waveforms recorded during five constant-discharge periods - before, during, and after the spillway crisis - each of which had a different channel geometry. We apply frequency-dependent polarization analysis (FDPA; following Park, 1987), which characterizes particle motion at each frequency. The method is based on principal component analysis on a spectral covariance matrix in one-hour windows and it produces the horizontal azimuth, vertical tilt, horizontal phase, and vertical phase of the dominant particle motion. The results indicate a greater vertical component (perhaps roughness-induced) of power at a broad range of frequencies at a given discharge after the formation of the chasm. As the outflow crater developed, the back-azimuth of the primary source of seismic energy changed from the nearby Thermalito Diversion Pool (188 degrees) to the center of the outflow channel (170 degrees). To further analyze FDPA results, we apply the 2D spectral-element solver package SPECFEM2D (Tromp et al. 2008), and find that local topography should be considered when interpreting the surface waveforms predicted by FDPA results. This research suggests that monitoring changing channel geometry and erosion in large-scale flood events may be enhanced by seismic FDPA analysis. The

Analogue modelling of the rupture process of vulnerable stalagmites in an earthquake simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gribovszki, Katalin; Bokelmann, Götz; Kovács, Károly; Hegymegi, Erika; Esterhazy, Sofi; Mónus, Péter

2017-04-01

Earthquakes hit urban centers in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. Long-term information can in principle be gained from intact and vulnerable stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred, over thousands of years - depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their "survival" requires that the horizontal ground acceleration has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. To determine this critical value for the horizontal ground acceleration more precisely we need to understand the failure process of these intact and vulnerable stalagmites. More detailed information of the vulnerable stalagmites' rupture is required, and we have to know how much it depends on the shape and the substance of the investigated stalagmite. Predicting stalagmite failure limits using numerical modelling is faced with a number of approximations, e.g. from generating a manageable digital model. Thus it seemed reasonable to investigate the problem by analogue modelling as well. The advantage of analogue modelling among other things is that nearly real circumstances can be produced by simple and quick laboratory methods. The model sample bodies were made from different types of concrete and were cut out from real broken stalagmites originated from the investigated caves. These bodies were reduced-scaled with similar shape as the original, investigated stalagmites. During the measurements we could change both the shape and

The Pollino Seismic Sequence: Activated Graben Structures in a Seismic Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rößler, Dirk; Passarelli, Luigi; Govoni, Aladino; Bindi, Dino; Cesca, Simone; Hainzl, Sebatian; Maccaferri, Francesco; Rivalta, Eleonora; Woith, Heiko; Dahm, Torsten

2015-04-01

mapped for the area. Consistent with mapped faults, the seismicity interested both eastwards and westwards dipping normal faults that define the geometry of seismically active graben-like structures. At least one cluster shows an additional spatio-temporal migration with spreading hypocentres similar to other swarm areas with fluid-triggering mechanisms. The static Coulomb stress change transferred by the largest shock onto the swarm area and on the CF cannot explain the observed high seismicity rate. We study the evolution of the frequency-size distribution of the events and the seismicity rate changes. We find that the majority of the earthquakes cannot be justified as aftershocks (directly related to the tectonics or to earthquake-earthquake interaction) and are best explained by an additional forcing active over the entire sequence. Our findings are consistent with the action of fluids (e.g. pore-pressure diffusion) triggering seismicity on pre-loaded faults. Additional aseismic release of tectonic strain by transient, slow slip is also consistent with our analysis. Analysis of deformation time series may clarify this point in future studies.

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Paulo; Mourato, Sandra; Moreira, Madalena; Pereira, Luísa

2016-08-01

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

The concept of 'vulnerability' in research ethics: an in-depth analysis of policies and guidelines.

PubMed

Bracken-Roche, Dearbhail; Bell, Emily; Macdonald, Mary Ellen; Racine, Eric

2017-02-07

The concept of vulnerability has held a central place in research ethics guidance since its introduction in the United States Belmont Report in 1979. It signals mindfulness for researchers and research ethics boards to the possibility that some participants may be at higher risk of harm or wrong. Despite its important intended purpose and widespread use, there is considerable disagreement in the scholarly literature about the meaning and delineation of vulnerability, stemming from a perceived lack of guidance within research ethics standards. The aim of this study was to assess the concept of vulnerability as it is employed in major national and international research ethics policies and guidelines. We conducted an in-depth analysis of 11 (five national and six international) research ethics policies and guidelines, exploring their discussions of the definition, application, normative justification and implications of vulnerability. Few policies and guidelines explicitly defined vulnerability, instead relying on implicit assumptions and the delineation of vulnerable groups and sources of vulnerability. On the whole, we found considerable richness in the content on vulnerability across policies, but note that this relies heavily on the structure imposed on the data through our analysis. Our results underscore a need for policymakers to revisit the guidance on vulnerability in research ethics, and we propose that a process of stakeholder engagement would well-support this effort.

Identifying typical patterns of vulnerability: A 5-step approach based on cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sietz, Diana; Lüdeke, Matthias; Kok, Marcel; Lucas, Paul; Carsten, Walther; Janssen, Peter

2013-04-01

Specific processes that shape the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems to climate, market and other stresses derive from diverse background conditions. Within the multitude of vulnerability-creating mechanisms, distinct processes recur in various regions inspiring research on typical patterns of vulnerability. The vulnerability patterns display typical combinations of the natural and socio-economic properties that shape a systems' vulnerability to particular stresses. Based on the identification of a limited number of vulnerability patterns, pattern analysis provides an efficient approach to improving our understanding of vulnerability and decision-making for vulnerability reduction. However, current pattern analyses often miss explicit descriptions of their methods and pay insufficient attention to the validity of their groupings. Therefore, the question arises as to how do we identify typical vulnerability patterns in order to enhance our understanding of a systems' vulnerability to stresses? A cluster-based pattern recognition applied at global and local levels is scrutinised with a focus on an applicable methodology and practicable insights. Taking the example of drylands, this presentation demonstrates the conditions necessary to identify typical vulnerability patterns. They are summarised in five methodological steps comprising the elicitation of relevant cause-effect hypotheses and the quantitative indication of mechanisms as well as an evaluation of robustness, a validation and a ranking of the identified patterns. Reflecting scale-dependent opportunities, a global study is able to support decision-making with insights into the up-scaling of interventions when available funds are limited. In contrast, local investigations encourage an outcome-based validation. This constitutes a crucial step in establishing the credibility of the patterns and hence their suitability for informing extension services and individual decisions. In this respect, working at

Dynamic response analysis of surrounding rock under the continuous blasting seismic wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, P. F.; Zong, Q.; Xu, Y.; Fu, J.

2017-10-01

The blasting vibration that is caused by blasting excavation will generate a certain degree of negative effect on the stability of surrounding rock in underground engineering. A dynamic response analysis of surrounding rock under the continuous blasting seismic wave is carried out to optimize blasting parameters and guide underground engineering construction. Based on the theory of wavelet analysis, the reconstructed signals of each layer of different frequency bands are obtained by db8 wavelet decomposition. The difference of dynamic response of the continuous blasting seismic wave at a certain point caused by different blasting sources is discussed. The signal in the frequency band of natural frequency of the surrounding rock shows a certain degree of amplification effect deduced from the dynamic response characteristics of the surrounding rock under the influence of continuous blasting seismic wave. Continuous blasting operations in a fixed space will lead to the change of internal structure of the surrounding rock. It may result in the decline of natural frequency of the whole surrounding rock and it is also harmful for the stability of the surrounding rock.

3D seismic data de-noising and reconstruction using Multichannel Time Slice Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rekapalli, Rajesh; Tiwari, R. K.; Sen, Mrinal K.; Vedanti, Nimisha

2017-05-01

Noises and data gaps complicate the seismic data processing and subsequently cause difficulties in the geological interpretation. We discuss a recent development and application of the Multi-channel Time Slice Singular Spectrum Analysis (MTSSSA) for 3D seismic data de-noising in time domain. In addition, L1 norm based simultaneous data gap filling of 3D seismic data using MTSSSA also discussed. We discriminated the noises from single individual time slices of 3D volumes by analyzing Eigen triplets of the trajectory matrix. We first tested the efficacy of the method on 3D synthetic seismic data contaminated with noise and then applied to the post stack seismic reflection data acquired from the Sleipner CO2 storage site (pre and post CO2 injection) from Norway. Our analysis suggests that the MTSSSA algorithm is efficient to enhance the S/N for better identification of amplitude anomalies along with simultaneous data gap filling. The bright spots identified in the de-noised data indicate upward migration of CO2 towards the top of the Utsira formation. The reflections identified applying MTSSSA to pre and post injection data correlate well with the geology of the Southern Viking Graben (SVG).

Community Seismic Network (CSN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayton, R. W.; Heaton, T. H.; Kohler, M. D.; Chandy, M.; Krause, A.

2010-12-01

In collaboration with computer science and earthquake engineering, we are developing a dense network of low-cost accelerometers that send their data via the Internet to a cloud-based center. The goal is to make block-by-block measurements of ground shaking in urban areas, which will provide emergency response information in the case of large earthquakes, and an unprecedented high-frequency seismic array to study structure and the earthquake process with moderate shaking. When deployed in high-rise buildings they can be used to monitor the state of health of the structure. The sensors are capable of a resolution of approximately 80 micro-g, connect via USB ports to desktop computers, and cost about $100 each. The network will adapt to its environment by using network-wide machine learning to adjust the picking sensitivity. We are also looking into using other motion sensing devices such as cell phones. For a pilot project, we plan to deploy more than 1000 sensors in the greater Pasadena area. The system is easily adaptable to other seismically vulnerable urban areas.

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the

Magma replenishment and volcanic unrest inferred from the analysis of VT micro-seismicity and seismic velocity changes at Piton de la Fournaise Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenguier, F.; Rivemale, E.; Clarke, D. S.; Schmid, A.; Got, J.; Battaglia, J.; Taisne, B.; Staudacher, T.; Peltier, A.; Shapiro, N. M.; Tait, S.; Ferrazzini, V.; Di Muro, A.

2011-12-01

allow magma to reach the edifice summit. Moreover, we have identified transient seismic velocity changes lasting a few weeks that could be associated with unreported lateral magma intrusions not leading to eruptions. The clustering of pre-eruptive micro-seismicity between mid 1999-2003 shows that seismic events repeat over successive seismic swarms and suggests that the magma pathway is spatially separated from the seismic faults. Also, the inversion for focal mechanisms shows dominant sub-horizontal P-axes indicating that part of the pre-eruptive micro-seismicity is due to the horizontal compressive stress induced by magma injection. Finally, the analysis of long-term GPS data recorded on the edifice flank shows a constant lateral displacement rate of 3.5 cm/year. More work will be needed in order to infer the possible mutual interactions between magma unrest and transport and the large-scale deformation of the edifice flank.

Earthquake vulnerability assessment of buildings of ward no. 8 of Haldwani-Kathgodam Municipal Corporation, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bora, Kritika; Pande, Ravindra K.

2017-07-01

"Earthquake does not kill people; it is the building which kills people". Earthquake is a sudden event below the surface of the earth which results in vertical and horizontal waves that causes destruction. The main aim of this research is to bring into light the unplanned and non-engineered construction practices growing in the Urban areas. Lack of space and continuous migration from hills has resulted in Multistorey construction. The present study is based on primary data collection through Rapid Visual Screening for the assessment of vulnerability of buildings. "Haldwani-Kathgodam being a new Municipal Corporation located in the foot hills of Himalayas is facing same problem. The seismic zonation brings this area into zone 4 of damage risk. Therefore an assessment to estimate the risk of the built up environment is important. This paper presents a systematic and useful way of assessing physical vulnerability of buildings. The present paper will show how the growing pressure on urban area tends to make the built up environment vulnerable towards seismic activities. The challenge today is to make our living environment safe for living. The day by day growing population pressure on urban area as a migration trend in developing countries is leading to high rise building, no planning and reckless construction. For the sake of saving some money people usually do not take the approval from structural engineer. This unplanned and haphazard construction proves non-resistant towards earthquake and brings lives and properties to death and a stand still. The total no. of household in the current study area is 543 whereas the total population is 2497 (2011). The recent formation of Himalayas makes the area more sensitive towards seismic event. The closeness to the Main Boundary thrust brings it to zone 4 in the Seismic Zonation of India i.e., High Damage Risk Zone

A non extensive statistical physics analysis of the Hellenic subduction zone seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallianatos, F.; Papadakis, G.; Michas, G.; Sammonds, P.

2012-04-01

The Hellenic subduction zone is the most seismically active region in Europe [Becker & Meier, 2010]. The spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity as well as the analysis of the magnitude distribution of earthquakes concerning the Hellenic subduction zone, has been studied using the concept of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP) [Tsallis, 1988 ; Tsallis, 2009]. Non-Extensive Statistical Physics, which is a generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical physics, seems a suitable framework for studying complex systems (Vallianatos, 2011). Using this concept, Abe & Suzuki (2003;2005) investigated the spatial and temporal properties of the seismicity in California and Japan and recently Darooneh & Dadashinia (2008) in Iran. Furthermore, Telesca (2011) calculated the thermodynamic parameter q of the magnitude distribution of earthquakes of the southern California earthquake catalogue. Using the external seismic zones of 36 seismic sources of shallow earthquakes in the Aegean and the surrounding area [Papazachos, 1990], we formed a dataset concerning the seismicity of shallow earthquakes (focal depth ≤ 60km) of the subduction zone, which is based on the instrumental data of the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens (http://www.gein.noa.gr/, period 1990-2011). The catalogue consists of 12800 seismic events which correspond to 15 polygons of the aforementioned external seismic zones. These polygons define the subduction zone, as they are associated with the compressional stress field which characterizes a subducting regime. For each event, moment magnitude was calculated from ML according to the suggestions of Papazachos et al. (1997). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances as well as the magnitude distribution for each seismic zone have been estimated, presenting a variation in the q-triplet along the Hellenic subduction zone. The models used, fit rather well to the observed

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Sharia, T.; Arabidze, V.; Tibaldi, A.; Bonali, F. L. L.; Russo, E.; Pasquaré Mariotto, F.

2017-12-01

Nowadays, seismic hazard studies are developed in terms of the calculation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Spectral Acceleration (SA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and other recorded parameters. In the frame of EMME project PSH were calculated for Georgia using GMPE based on selection criteria. In the frame of Project N 216758 (supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation (SRNF)) PSH maps were estimated using hybrid- empirical ground motion prediction equation developed for Georgia. Due to the paucity of seismically recorded information, in this work we focused our research on a more robust dataset related to macroseismic data,and attempted to calculate the probabilistic seismic hazard directly in terms of macroseismicintensity. For this reason, we started calculating new intensity prediction equations (IPEs)for Georgia taking into account different sets, belonging to the same new database, as well as distances from the seismic source.With respect to the seismic source, in order to improve the quality of the results, we have also hypothesized the size of faults from empirical relations, and calculated new IPEs also by considering Joyner-Boore and rupture distances in addition to epicentral and hypocentral distances. Finally, site conditions have been included as variables for IPEs calculation Regarding the database, we used a brand new revised set of macroseismic data and instrumental records for the significant earthquakes that struck Georgia between 1900 and 2002.Particularly, a large amount of research and documents related to macroseismic effects of individual earthquakes, stored in the archives of the Institute of Geophysics, were used as sources for the new macroseismic data. The latter are reported in the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnikmacroseismic scale (MSK64). For each earthquake the magnitude, the focal depth and the epicenter location are also reported. An online version of the database, with therelated metadata,has been produced for the 69

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2014-05-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum

Natural time analysis of global seismicity: the identification of magnitude correlations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarlis, N. V.; Christopoulos, S.-R. G.

2012-04-01

Natural time [1-6] can reveal novel dynamical features hidden behind the time series of complex systems, for a review see Ref.[7]. In a time series comprising N earthquakes, the natural time χk = k/N serves as an index for the occurrence of the k-th event[1, 5, 6], and is smaller than or equal to unity. In natural time analysis of seismicity, the evolution of the pair of two quantities (χk, Ek) is considered, where Ek denotes the energy emitted during the k-th earthquake. It has been proposed[5] that the variance κ1 of natural time can play the role of an order parameter for seismicity. Moreover, when using natural time the identification of temporal correlations -even in the presence of heavy tails in the data- becomes possible[6]. Thus, natural time analysis enables the identification of magnitude correlations between successive earthquakes[8]. By analyzing in natural time[9] the worldwide seismicity from the Harvard Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog as reported by the United States Geological Survey as well as the most recent version (1900-2007) of the Centennial earthquake Catalog[10], we find non-trivial magnitude correlations for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.

Multidimensional analysis and probabilistic model of volcanic and seismic activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorov, V.

2009-04-01

.I. Gushchenko, 1979) and seismological (database of USGS/NEIC Significant Worldwide Earthquakes, 2150 B.C.- 1994 A.D.) information which displays dynamics of endogenic relief-forming processes over a period of 1900 to 1994. In the course of the analysis, a substitution of calendar variable by a corresponding astronomical one has been performed and the epoch superposition method was applied. In essence, the method consists in that the massifs of information on volcanic eruptions (over a period of 1900 to 1977) and seismic events (1900-1994) are differentiated with respect to value of astronomical parameters which correspond to the calendar dates of the known eruptions and earthquakes, regardless of the calendar year. The obtained spectra of volcanic eruptions and violent earthquake distribution in the fields of the Earth orbital movement parameters were used as a basis for calculation of frequency spectra and diurnal probability of volcanic and seismic activity. The objective of the proposed investigations is a probabilistic model development of the volcanic and seismic events, as well as GIS designing for monitoring and forecast of volcanic and seismic activities. In accordance with the stated objective, three probability parameters have been found in the course of preliminary studies; they form the basis for GIS-monitoring and forecast development. 1. A multidimensional analysis of volcanic eruption and earthquakes (of magnitude 7) have been performed in terms of the Earth orbital movement. Probability characteristics of volcanism and seismicity have been defined for the Earth as a whole. Time intervals have been identified with a diurnal probability twice as great as the mean value. Diurnal probability of volcanic and seismic events has been calculated up to 2020. 2. A regularity is found in duration of dormant (repose) periods has been established. A relationship has been found between the distribution of the repose period probability density and duration of the period. 3

DARHT Multi-intelligence Seismic and Acoustic Data Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevens, Garrison Nicole; Van Buren, Kendra Lu; Hemez, Francois M.

The purpose of this report is to document the analysis of seismic and acoustic data collected at the Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory for robust, multi-intelligence decision making. The data utilized herein is obtained from two tri-axial seismic sensors and three acoustic sensors, resulting in a total of nine data channels. The goal of this analysis is to develop a generalized, automated framework to determine internal operations at DARHT using informative features extracted from measurements collected external of the facility. Our framework involves four components: (1) feature extraction, (2) data fusion, (3) classification, andmore » finally (4) robustness analysis. Two approaches are taken for extracting features from the data. The first of these, generic feature extraction, involves extraction of statistical features from the nine data channels. The second approach, event detection, identifies specific events relevant to traffic entering and leaving the facility as well as explosive activities at DARHT and nearby explosive testing sites. Event detection is completed using a two stage method, first utilizing signatures in the frequency domain to identify outliers and second extracting short duration events of interest among these outliers by evaluating residuals of an autoregressive exogenous time series model. Features extracted from each data set are then fused to perform analysis with a multi-intelligence paradigm, where information from multiple data sets are combined to generate more information than available through analysis of each independently. The fused feature set is used to train a statistical classifier and predict the state of operations to inform a decision maker. We demonstrate this classification using both generic statistical features and event detection and provide a comparison of the two methods. Finally, the concept of decision robustness is presented through a preliminary

Security Vulnerability Profiles of Mission Critical Software: Empirical Analysis of Security Related Bug Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goseva-Popstojanova, Katerina; Tyo, Jacob

2017-01-01

While some prior research work exists on characteristics of software faults (i.e., bugs) and failures, very little work has been published on analysis of software applications vulnerabilities. This paper aims to contribute towards filling that gap by presenting an empirical investigation of application vulnerabilities. The results are based on data extracted from issue tracking systems of two NASA missions. These data were organized in three datasets: Ground mission IVV issues, Flight mission IVV issues, and Flight mission Developers issues. In each dataset, we identified security related software bugs and classified them in specific vulnerability classes. Then, we created the security vulnerability profiles, i.e., determined where and when the security vulnerabilities were introduced and what were the dominating vulnerabilities classes. Our main findings include: (1) In IVV issues datasets the majority of vulnerabilities were code related and were introduced in the Implementation phase. (2) For all datasets, around 90 of the vulnerabilities were located in two to four subsystems. (3) Out of 21 primary classes, five dominated: Exception Management, Memory Access, Other, Risky Values, and Unused Entities. Together, they contributed from 80 to 90 of vulnerabilities in each dataset.

HANFORD DST THERMAL & SEISMIC PROJECT ANSYS BENCHMARK ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC INDUCED FLUID STRUCTURE INTERACTION IN A HANFORD DOUBLE SHELL PRIMARY TANK

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MACKEY, T.C.

M&D Professional Services, Inc. (M&D) is under subcontract to Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL) to perform seismic analysis of the Hanford Site Double-Shell Tanks (DSTs) in support of a project entitled ''Double-Shell Tank (DSV Integrity Project-DST Thermal and Seismic Analyses)''. The overall scope of the project is to complete an up-to-date comprehensive analysis of record of the DST System at Hanford in support of Tri-Party Agreement Milestone M-48-14. The work described herein was performed in support of the seismic analysis of the DSTs. The thermal and operating loads analysis of the DSTs is documented in Rinker et al. (2004). Themore » overall seismic analysis of the DSTs is being performed with the general-purpose finite element code ANSYS. The overall model used for the seismic analysis of the DSTs includes the DST structure, the contained waste, and the surrounding soil. The seismic analysis of the DSTs must address the fluid-structure interaction behavior and sloshing response of the primary tank and contained liquid. ANSYS has demonstrated capabilities for structural analysis, but the capabilities and limitations of ANSYS to perform fluid-structure interaction are less well understood. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the capabilities and investigate the limitations of ANSYS for performing a fluid-structure interaction analysis of the primary tank and contained waste. To this end, the ANSYS solutions are benchmarked against theoretical solutions appearing in BNL 1995, when such theoretical solutions exist. When theoretical solutions were not available, comparisons were made to theoretical solutions of similar problems and to the results from Dytran simulations. The capabilities and limitations of the finite element code Dytran for performing a fluid-structure interaction analysis of the primary tank and contained waste were explored in a parallel investigation (Abatt 2006). In conjunction with the results of the global ANSYS

An analysis of seismic risk from a tourism point of view.

PubMed

Mäntyniemi, Päivi

2012-07-01

Global awareness of natural calamities increased after the destructive Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004, largely because many foreigners lost their lives, especially in Thailand. This paper explores how best to communicate the seismic risk posed by different travel destinations to crisis management personnel in tourists' home countries. The analysis of seismic risk should be straightforward enough for non-specialists, yet powerful enough to identify the travel destinations that are most at risk. The output for each location is a point in 3D space composed of the natural and built-up environment and local tourism. The tourism-specific factors can be tailored according to the tourists' nationality. The necessary information can be collected from various directories and statistics, much of it available over the Internet. The output helps to illustrate the overall seismic risk conditions of different travel destinations, allows for comparison across destinations, and identifies the places that are most at risk. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, D. N.; Patton, H. J.; Taylor, S. R.; Bonner, J. L.; Selby, N. D.

2014-03-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m b, earthquakes generally have a larger M S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M S and m b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H 0: explosion characteristics.

6C polarization analysis - seismic direction finding in coherent noise, automated event identification, and wavefield separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmelzbach, C.; Sollberger, D.; Greenhalgh, S.; Van Renterghem, C.; Robertsson, J. O. A.

2017-12-01

Polarization analysis of standard three-component (3C) seismic data is an established tool to determine the propagation directions of seismic waves recorded by a single station. A major limitation of seismic direction finding methods using 3C recordings, however, is that a correct propagation-direction determination is only possible if the wave mode is known. Furthermore, 3C polarization analysis techniques break down in the presence of coherent noise (i.e., when more than one event is present in the analysis time window). Recent advances in sensor technology (e.g., fibre-optical, magnetohydrodynamic angular rate sensors, and ring laser gyroscopes) have made it possible to accurately measure all three components of rotational ground motion exhibited by seismic waves, in addition to the conventionally recorded three components of translational motion. Here, we present an extension of the theory of single station 3C polarization analysis to six-component (6C) recordings of collocated translational and rotational ground motions. We demonstrate that the information contained in rotation measurements can help to overcome some of the main limitations of standard 3C seismic direction finding, such as handling multiple arrivals simultaneously. We show that the 6C polarisation of elastic waves measured at the Earth's free surface does not only depend on the seismic wave type and propagation direction, but also on the local P- and S-wave velocities just beneath the recording station. Using an adaptation of the multiple signal classification algorithm (MUSIC), we demonstrate how seismic events can univocally be identified and characterized in terms of their wave type. Furthermore, we show how the local velocities can be inferred from single-station 6C data, in addition to the direction angles (inclination and azimuth) of seismic arrivals. A major benefit of our proposed 6C method is that it also allows the accurate recovery of the wave type, propagation directions, and phase

Assessment of Uncertainties Related to Seismic Hazard Using Fuzzy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorjiashvili, N.; Yokoi, T.; Javakhishvili, Z.

2013-05-01

Seismic hazard analysis in last few decades has been become very important issue. Recently, new technologies and available data have been improved that helped many scientists to understand where and why earthquakes happen, physics of earthquakes, etc. They have begun to understand the role of uncertainty in Seismic hazard analysis. However, there is still significant problem how to handle existing uncertainty. The same lack of information causes difficulties to quantify uncertainty accurately. Usually attenuation curves are obtained in statistical way: regression analysis. Statistical and probabilistic analysis show overlapped results for the site coefficients. This overlapping takes place not only at the border between two neighboring classes, but also among more than three classes. Although the analysis starts from classifying sites using the geological terms, these site coefficients are not classified at all. In the present study, this problem is solved using Fuzzy set theory. Using membership functions the ambiguities at the border between neighboring classes can be avoided. Fuzzy set theory is performed for southern California by conventional way. In this study standard deviations that show variations between each site class obtained by Fuzzy set theory and classical way are compared. Results on this analysis show that when we have insufficient data for hazard assessment site classification based on Fuzzy set theory shows values of standard deviations less than obtained by classical way which is direct proof of less uncertainty.

Analysis of the Seismic Performance of Isolated Buildings according to Life-Cycle Cost

PubMed Central

Dang, Yu; Han, Jian-ping; Li, Yong-tao

2015-01-01

This paper proposes an indicator of seismic performance based on life-cycle cost of a building. It is expressed as a ratio of lifetime damage loss to life-cycle cost and determines the seismic performance of isolated buildings. Major factors are considered, including uncertainty in hazard demand and structural capacity, initial costs, and expected loss during earthquakes. Thus, a high indicator value indicates poor building seismic performance. Moreover, random vibration analysis is conducted to measure structural reliability and evaluate the expected loss and life-cycle cost of isolated buildings. The expected loss of an actual, seven-story isolated hospital building is only 37% of that of a fixed-base building. Furthermore, the indicator of the structural seismic performance of the isolated building is much lower in value than that of the structural seismic performance of the fixed-base building. Therefore, isolated buildings are safer and less risky than fixed-base buildings. The indicator based on life-cycle cost assists owners and engineers in making investment decisions in consideration of structural design, construction, and expected loss. It also helps optimize the balance between building reliability and building investment. PMID:25653677

Analysis of the seismic performance of isolated buildings according to life-cycle cost.

PubMed

Dang, Yu; Han, Jian-Ping; Li, Yong-Tao

2015-01-01

This paper proposes an indicator of seismic performance based on life-cycle cost of a building. It is expressed as a ratio of lifetime damage loss to life-cycle cost and determines the seismic performance of isolated buildings. Major factors are considered, including uncertainty in hazard demand and structural capacity, initial costs, and expected loss during earthquakes. Thus, a high indicator value indicates poor building seismic performance. Moreover, random vibration analysis is conducted to measure structural reliability and evaluate the expected loss and life-cycle cost of isolated buildings. The expected loss of an actual, seven-story isolated hospital building is only 37% of that of a fixed-base building. Furthermore, the indicator of the structural seismic performance of the isolated building is much lower in value than that of the structural seismic performance of the fixed-base building. Therefore, isolated buildings are safer and less risky than fixed-base buildings. The indicator based on life-cycle cost assists owners and engineers in making investment decisions in consideration of structural design, construction, and expected loss. It also helps optimize the balance between building reliability and building investment.

Geomechanics-Based Stochastic Analysis of Injection- Induced Seismicity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghassemi, Ahmad

The production of geothermal energy from dry and low permeability reservoirs is achieved by water circulation in natural and/or man-made fractures, and is referred to as enhanced or engineered geothermal systems (EGS). Often, the permeable zones have to be created by stimulation, a process which involves fracture initiation and/or activation of discontinuities such as faults and joints due to pore pressure and the in-situ stress perturbations. The stimulation of a rock mass is often accompanied by multiple microseismic events. Micro-seismic events associated with rock failure in shear, and shear slip on new or pre-existing fracture planes and possibly their propagations.more » The microseismic signals contain information about the sources of energy that can be used for understanding the hydraulic fracturing process and the created reservoir properties. Detection and interpretation of microseismic events is useful for estimating the stimulated zone, created reservoir permeability and fracture growth, and geometry of the geological structures and the in-situ stress state. The process commonly is referred to as seismicity-based reservoir characterization (SBRC). Although, progress has been made by scientific & geothermal communities for quantitative and qualitative analysis of reservoir stimulation using SBRC several key questions remain unresolved in the analysis of micro-seismicity namely, variation of seismic activity with injection rate, delayed micro-seismicity, and the relation of stimulated zone to the injected volume and its rate, and the resulting reservoir permeability. In addition, the current approach to SBRC does not consider the full range of relevant poroelastic and thermoelastic phenomena and neglects the uncertainty in rock properties and in-situ stress in the data inversion process. The objective of this research and technology developments was to develop a 3D SBRC model that addresses these shortcomings by taking into account hydro

Seismic performance evaluation of RC frame-shear wall structures using nonlinear analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jialiang; Wang, Qiuwei

To further understand the seismic performance of reinforced concrete (RC) frame-shear wall structures, a 1/8 model structure is scaled from a main factory structure with seven stories and seven bays. The model with four-stories and two-bays was pseudo-dynamically tested under six earthquake actions whose peak ground accelerations (PGA) vary from 50gal to 400gal. The damage process and failure patterns were investigated. Furthermore, nonlinear dynamic analysis (NDA) and capacity spectrum method (CSM) were adopted to evaluate the seismic behavior of the model structure. The top displacement curve, story drift curve and distribution of hinges were obtained and discussed. It is shown that the model structure had the characteristics of beam-hinge failure mechanism. The two methods can be used to evaluate the seismic behavior of RC frame-shear wall structures well. What’s more, the NDA can be somewhat replaced by CSM for the seismic performance evaluation of RC structures.

Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Cramer, Chris H.

2017-07-01

This article presents a seismic hazard assessment for northern Iran, where a smoothed seismicity approach has been used in combination with an updated seismic catalog and a ground motion prediction equation recently found to yield good fit with data. We evaluate the hazard over a geographical area including the seismic zones of Azerbaijan, the Alborz Mountain Range, and Kopeh-Dagh, as well as parts of other neighboring seismic zones that fall within our region of interest. In the chosen approach, seismic events are not assigned to specific faults but assumed to be potential seismogenic sources distributed within regular grid cells. After performing the corresponding magnitude conversions, we decluster both historical and instrumental seismicity catalogs to obtain earthquake rates based on the number of events within each cell, and smooth the results to account for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of future earthquakes. Seismicity parameters are computed for each seismic zone separately, and for the entire region of interest as a single uniform seismotectonic region. In the analysis, we consider uncertainties in the ground motion prediction equation, the seismicity parameters, and combine the resulting models using a logic tree. The results are presented in terms of expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps and hazard curves at selected locations, considering exceedance probabilities of 2 and 10% in 50 years for rock site conditions. According to our results, the highest levels of hazard are observed west of the North Tabriz and east of the North Alborz faults, where expected PGA values are between about 0.5 and 1 g for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. We analyze our results in light of similar estimates available in the literature and offer our perspective on the differences observed. We find our results to be helpful in understanding seismic hazard for northern Iran, but recognize that additional efforts are necessary to

Geodynamic Evolution of Northeastern Tunisia During the Maastrichtian-Paleocene Time: Insights from Integrated Seismic Stratigraphic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidi, Oussama; Inoubli, Mohamed Hédi; Sebei, Kawthar; Amiri, Adnen; Boussiga, Haifa; Nasr, Imen Hamdi; Salem, Abdelhamid Ben; Elabed, Mahmoud

2017-05-01

The Maastrichtian-Paleocene El Haria formation was studied and defined in Tunisia on the basis of outcrops and borehole data; few studies were interested in its three-dimensional extent. In this paper, the El Haria formation is reviewed in the context of a tectono-stratigraphic interval using an integrated seismic stratigraphic analysis based on borehole lithology logs, electrical well logging, well shots, vertical seismic profiles and post-stack surface data. Seismic analysis benefits from appropriate calibration with borehole data, conventional interpretation, velocity mapping, seismic attributes and post-stack model-based inversion. The applied methodology proved to be powerful for charactering the marly Maastrichtian-Paleocene interval of the El Haria formation. Migrated seismic sections together with borehole measurements are used to detail the three-dimensional changes in thickness, facies and depositional environment in the Cap Bon and Gulf of Hammamet regions during the Maastrichtian-Paleocene time. Furthermore, dating based on their microfossil content divulges local and multiple internal hiatuses within the El Haria formation which are related to the geodynamic evolution of the depositional floor since the Campanian stage. Interpreted seismic sections display concordance, unconformities, pinchouts, sedimentary gaps, incised valleys and syn-sedimentary normal faulting. Based on the seismic reflection geometry and terminations, seven sequences are delineated. These sequences are related to base-level changes as the combination of depositional floor paleo-topography, tectonic forces, subsidence and the developed accommodation space. These factors controlled the occurrence of the various parts of the Maastrichtian-Paleocene interval. Detailed examinations of these deposits together with the analysis of the structural deformation at different time periods allowed us to obtain a better understanding of the sediment architecture in depth and the delineation of

Use of cartography in historical seismicity analysis: a reliable tool to better apprehend the contextualization of the historical documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Fradet; Grégory, Quenet; Kevin, Manchuel

2014-05-01

Historical studies, including historical seismicity analysis, deal with historical documents. Numerous factors, such as culture, social condition, demography, political situations and opinions or religious ones influence the way the events are transcribed in the archives. As a consequence, it is crucial to contextualize and compare the historical documents reporting on a given event in order to reduce the uncertainties affecting their analysis and interpretation. When studying historical seismic events it is often tricky to have a global view of all the information provided by the historical documents. It is also difficult to extract cross-correlated information from the documents and draw a precise historical context. Use of cartographic and geographic tools in GIS software is the best tool for the synthesis, interpretation and contextualization of the historical material. The main goal is to produce the most complete dataset of available information, in order to take into account all the components of the historical context and consequently improve the macroseismic analysis. The Entre-Deux-Mers earthquake (1759, Iepc= VII-VIII) [SISFRANCE 2013 - EDF-IRSN-BRGM] is well documented but has never benefited from a cross-analysis of historical documents and historical context elements. The map of available intensity data from SISFRANCE highlights a gap in macroseismic information within the estimated epicentral area. The aim of this study is to understand the origin of this gap by making a cartographic compilation of both, archive information and historical context elements. The results support the hypothesis that the lack of documents and macroseismic data in the epicentral area is related to a low human activity rather than low seismic effects in this zone. Topographic features, geographical position, flood hazard, roads and pathways locations, vineyards distribution and the forester coverage, mentioned in the archives and reported on the Cassini's map confirm this

Seismic attribute analysis for reservoir and fluid prediction, Malay Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mansor, M.N.; Rudolph, K.W.; Richards, F.B.

1994-07-01

The Malay Basin is characterized by excellent seismic data quality, but complex clastic reservoir architecture. With these characteristics, seismic attribute analysis is a very important tool in exploration and development geoscience and is routinely used for mapping fluids and reservoir, recognizing and risking traps, assessment, depth conversion, well placement, and field development planning. Attribute analysis can be successfully applied to both 2-D and 3-D data as demonstrated by comparisons of 2-D and 3-D amplitude maps of the same area. There are many different methods of extracting amplitude information from seismic data, including amplitude mapping, horizon slice, summed horizon slice, isochronmore » slice, and horizon slice from AVO (amplitude versus offset) cube. Within the Malay Basin, horizon/isochron slice techniques have several advantages over simply extracting amplitudes from a picked horizon: they are much faster, permit examination of the amplitude structure of the entire cube, yield better results for weak/variable signatures, and aid summation of amplitudes. Summation in itself often yields improved results because it incorporates the signature from the entire reservoir interval, reducing any effects due to noise, mispicking, or waveform variations. Dip and azimuth attributes have been widely applied by industry for fault identification. In addition, these attributes can also be used to map signature variations associated with hydrocarbon contacts or stratigraphic changes, and this must be considered when using these attributes for structural interpretation.« less

Building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michael, A. J.; Wiemer, S.; Zechar, J. D.; Hardebeck, J. L.; Naylor, M.; Zhuang, J.; Steacy, S.; Corssa Executive Committee

2010-12-01

Statistical seismology is critical to the understanding of seismicity, the testing of proposed earthquake prediction and forecasting methods, and the assessment of seismic hazard. Unfortunately, despite its importance to seismology - especially to those aspects with great impact on public policy - statistical seismology is mostly ignored in the education of seismologists, and there is no central repository for the existing open-source software tools. To remedy these deficiencies, and with the broader goal to enhance the quality of statistical seismology research, we have begun building the Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis (CORSSA). CORSSA is a web-based educational platform that is authoritative, up-to-date, prominent, and user-friendly. We anticipate that the users of CORSSA will range from beginning graduate students to experienced researchers. More than 20 scientists from around the world met for a week in Zurich in May 2010 to kick-start the creation of CORSSA: the format and initial table of contents were defined; a governing structure was organized; and workshop participants began drafting articles. CORSSA materials are organized with respect to six themes, each containing between four and eight articles. The CORSSA web page, www.corssa.org, officially unveiled on September 6, 2010, debuts with an initial set of approximately 10 to 15 articles available online for viewing and commenting with additional articles to be added over the coming months. Each article will be peer-reviewed and will present a balanced discussion, including illustrative examples and code snippets. Topics in the initial set of articles will include: introductions to both CORSSA and statistical seismology, basic statistical tests and their role in seismology; understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems; basic techniques for modeling seismicity; and methods for testing earthquake predictability hypotheses. A special article will compare and review

Seismicity and source spectra analysis in Salton Sea Geothermal Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Y.; Chen, X.

2016-12-01

The surge of "man-made" earthquakes in recent years has led to considerable concerns about the associated hazards. Improved monitoring of small earthquakes would significantly help understand such phenomena and the underlying physical mechanisms. In the Salton Sea Geothermal field in southern California, open access of a local borehole network provides a unique opportunity to better understand the seismicity characteristics, the related earthquake hazards, and the relationship with the geothermal system, tectonic faulting and other physical conditions. We obtain high-resolution earthquake locations in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, analyze characteristics of spatiotemporal isolated earthquake clusters, magnitude-frequency distributions and spatial variation of stress drops. The analysis reveals spatial coherent distributions of different types of clustering, b-value distributions, and stress drop distribution. The mixture type clusters (short-duration rapid bursts with high aftershock productivity) are predominately located within active geothermal field that correlate with high b-value, low stress drop microearthquake clouds, while regular aftershock sequences and swarms are distributed throughout the study area. The differences between earthquakes inside and outside of geothermal operation field suggest a possible way to distinguish directly induced seismicity due to energy operation versus typical seismic slip driven sequences. The spatial coherent b-value distribution enables in-situ estimation of probabilities for M≥3 earthquakes, and shows that the high large-magnitude-event (LME) probability zones with high stress drop are likely associated with tectonic faulting. The high stress drop in shallow (1-3 km) depth indicates the existence of active faults, while low stress drops near injection wells likely corresponds to the seismic response to fluid injection. I interpret the spatial variation of seismicity and source characteristics as the result of fluid

Assessment of seismic risk in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erdik, M.; Rashidov, T.; Safak, E.; Turdukulov, A.

2005-01-01

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of 'Earthquake damage and Loss Scenarios'. The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of earthquake risk scenario in Tashkent-Uzbekistan and Bishkek-Kyrgyzstan an approach based on spectral displacements is utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to the future developments. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Full waveform seismic modelling of Chalk Group rocks from the Danish North Sea - implications for velocity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montazeri, Mahboubeh; Moreau, Julien; Uldall, Anette; Nielsen, Lars

2015-04-01

This study aims at understanding seismic wave propagation in the fine-layered Chalk Group, which constitutes the main reservoir for oil and gas production in the Danish North Sea. The starting point of our analysis is the Nana-1XP exploration well, which shows strong seismic contrasts inside the Chalk Group. For the purposes of seismic waveform modelling, we here assume a one-dimensional model with homogeneous and isotropic layers designed to capture the main fluctuations in petrophysical properties observed in the well logs. The model is representative of the stratigraphic sequences of the area and it illustrates highly contrasting properties of the Chalk Group. Finite-difference (FD) full wave technique, both acoustic and elastic equations are applied to the model. Velocity analysis of seismic data is a crucial step for stacking, multiple suppression, migration, and depth conversion of the seismic record. Semblance analysis of the synthetic seismic records shows strong amplitude peaks outside the expected range for the time interval representing the Chalk Group, especially at the base. The various synthetic results illustrate the occurrence and the impact of different types of waves including multiples, converted waves and refracted waves. The interference of these different wave types with the primary reflections can explain the strong anomalous amplitudes in the semblance plot. In particular, the effect of strongly contrasting thin beds plays an important role in the generation of the high anomalous amplitude values. If these anomalous amplitudes are used to pick the velocities, it would impede proper stacking of the data and may result in sub-optimal migration and depth conversion. Consequently this may lead to erroneous or sub-optimal seismic images of the Chalk Group and the underlying layers. Our results highlight the importance of detailed velocity analysis and proper picking of velocity functions in the Chalk Group intervals. We show that application of

Probabilistic seismic demand analysis using advanced ground motion intensity measures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tothong, P.; Luco, N.

2007-01-01

One of the objectives in performance-based earthquake engineering is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure at a site. For that purpose, probabilistic seismic demand analysis (PSDA) is used as a tool to estimate the mean annual frequency of exceeding a specified value of a structural demand parameter (e.g. interstorey drift). This paper compares and contrasts the use, in PSDA, of certain advanced scalar versus vector and conventional scalar ground motion intensity measures (IMs). One of the benefits of using a well-chosen IM is that more accurate evaluations of seismic performance are achieved without the need to perform detailed ground motion record selection for the nonlinear dynamic structural analyses involved in PSDA (e.g. record selection with respect to seismic parameters such as earthquake magnitude, source-to-site distance, and ground motion epsilon). For structural demands that are dominated by a first mode of vibration, using inelastic spectral displacement (Sdi) can be advantageous relative to the conventionally used elastic spectral acceleration (Sa) and the vector IM consisting of Sa and epsilon (??). This paper demonstrates that this is true for ordinary and for near-source pulse-like earthquake records. The latter ground motions cannot be adequately characterized by either Sa alone or the vector of Sa and ??. For structural demands with significant higher-mode contributions (under either of the two types of ground motions), even Sdi (alone) is not sufficient, so an advanced scalar IM that additionally incorporates higher modes is used.

Source-Type Identification Analysis Using Regional Seismic Moment Tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, A.; Dreger, D. S.; Ford, S. R.; Walter, W. R.

2012-12-01

Waveform inversion to determine the seismic moment tensor is a standard approach in determining the source mechanism of natural and manmade seismicity, and may be used to identify, or discriminate different types of seismic sources. The successful applications of the regional moment tensor method at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the 2006 and 2009 North Korean nuclear tests (Ford et al., 2009a, 2009b, 2010) show that the method is robust and capable for source-type discrimination at regional distances. The well-separated populations of explosions, earthquakes and collapses on a Hudson et al., (1989) source-type diagram enables source-type discrimination; however the question remains whether or not the separation of events is universal in other regions, where we have limited station coverage and knowledge of Earth structure. Ford et al., (2012) have shown that combining regional waveform data and P-wave first motions removes the CLVD-isotropic tradeoff and uniquely discriminating the 2009 North Korean test as an explosion. Therefore, including additional constraints from regional and teleseismic P-wave first motions enables source-type discrimination at regions with limited station coverage. We present moment tensor analysis of earthquakes and explosions (M6) from Lop Nor and Semipalatinsk test sites for station paths crossing Kazakhstan and Western China. We also present analyses of smaller events from industrial sites. In these sparse coverage situations we combine regional long-period waveforms, and high-frequency P-wave polarity from the same stations, as well as from teleseismic arrays to constrain the source type. Discrimination capability with respect to velocity model and station coverage is examined, and additionally we investigate the velocity model dependence of vanishing free-surface traction effects on seismic moment tensor inversion of shallow sources and recovery of explosive scalar moment. Our synthetic data tests indicate that biases in scalar

Tourism sector preparedness in zones with a high seismic risk: Case study of the Capital Region of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lihui, W.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Japan is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Tourism, as a strategic industry in Japan, is especially vulnerable to destructive earthquake disasters owing to the characteristics of vulnerability, sensitivity and substitutability. Here we aim to provide theoretical understanding of the perception and responses of tourism managers towards damaging disasters in tourism destinations with high seismic risks. We conducted surveys among the mangers of tourism businesses in the capital area of Japan in 2014 and applied structural equation modeling techniques to empirically test the proposed model with four latent variables, which are risk perception, threat knowledge, disaster preparedness and earthquake preparedness. Our results show that threat knowledge affects risk perception and disaster preparedness positively. In addition, disaster preparedness positively affects earthquake preparedness. However, the proposed paths from risk perception to disaster preparedness, risk perception to earthquake preparedness, and threat knowledge to earthquake preparedness were not statistically significant. Our results may provide references for policymakers in promoting crisis planning in tourism destination with high seismic risks.

A quantitative analysis of global intermediate and deep seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruscic, Marija; Becker, Dirk; Le Pourhiet, Laetitita; Agard, Philippe; Meier, Thomas

2017-04-01

The seismic activity in subduction zones around the world shows a large spatial variabilty with some regions exhibiting strong seismic activity down to depths of almost 700km while in other places seismicity terminates at depths of about 200 or 300 km. Also the decay of the number of seismic events or of the seismic moment with depth is more pronounced in some regions than in others. The same is true for the variability of the ratio of large to small events (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation) that is varying with depth. These observations are often linked to parameters of the downgoing plate like age or subduction velocity. In this study we investigate a subset of subduction zones utilizing the revised ISC catalogue of intermediate and deep seismicity to determine statistical parameters well suited to describe properties of intermediate deep and deep events. The seismicity is separated into three depth intervals from 50-175km, 175-400km and >400km based on the depth at which the plate contact decouples, the observed nearly exponential decay of the event rate with depth and the supposed depth of phase transition at 410 km depth where also an increase of the event number with depth is observed. For estimation of the b-value and the exponential decay with depth, a restriction of the investigated time interval to the period after 1997 produced significantly better results indicating a globally homogeneous magnitude scale with the magnitude of completeness of about Mw 5. On a global scale the b-value decreases with depth from values of about 1 at 50-175km to values of slightly below 0.8 for events below 400km. Also, there is a slight increase of the b-value with the age of the subducting plate. These changes in the b-value with depth and with age may indicate a varying fragmentation of the slab. With respect to the ratio of the seismic moment between deeper and shallower parts of the subduction zones a dependence on the age is apparent with older slabs

The shallow elastic structure of the lunar crust: New insights from seismic wavefield gradient analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sollberger, David; Schmelzbach, Cedric; Robertsson, Johan O. A.; Greenhalgh, Stewart A.; Nakamura, Yosio; Khan, Amir

2016-10-01

Enigmatic lunar seismograms recorded during the Apollo 17 mission in 1972 have so far precluded the identification of shear-wave arrivals and hence the construction of a comprehensive elastic model of the shallow lunar subsurface. Here, for the first time, we extract shear-wave information from the Apollo active seismic data using a novel waveform analysis technique based on spatial seismic wavefield gradients. The star-like recording geometry of the active seismic experiment lends itself surprisingly well to compute spatial wavefield gradients and rotational ground motion as a function of time. These observables, which are new to seismic exploration in general, allowed us to identify shear waves in the complex lunar seismograms, and to derive a new model of seismic compressional and shear-wave velocities in the shallow lunar crust, critical to understand its lithology and constitution, and its impact on other geophysical investigations of the Moon's deep interior.

A Novel Approach to Constrain Near-Surface Seismic Wave Speed Based on Polarization Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Ishii, M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the seismic responses of cities around the world is essential for the risk assessment of earthquake hazards. One of the important parameters is the elastic structure of the sites, in particular, near-surface seismic wave speed, that influences the level of ground shaking. Many methods have been developed to constrain the elastic structure of the populated sites or urban basins, and here, we introduce a new technique based on analyzing the polarization content or the three-dimensional particle motion of seismic phases arriving at the sites. Polarization analysis of three-component seismic data was widely used up to about two decades ago, to detect signals and identify different types of seismic arrivals. Today, we have good understanding of the expected polarization direction and ray parameter for seismic wave arrivals that are calculated based on a reference seismic model. The polarization of a given phase is also strongly sensitive to the elastic wave speed immediately beneath the station. This allows us to compare the observed and predicted polarization directions of incoming body waves and infer the near-surface wave speed. This approach is applied to High-Sensitivity Seismograph Network in Japan, where we benchmark the results against the well-log data that are available at most stations. There is a good agreement between our estimates of seismic wave speeds and those from well logs, confirming the efficacy of the new method. In most urban environments, where well logging is not a practical option for measuring the seismic wave speeds, this method can provide a reliable, non-invasive, and computationally inexpensive estimate of near-surface elastic properties.

New discovered Izmir and Busan Mud Volcanoes and Application of Seismic Attributes and AVO Analysis in the Easternmost Black Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okay, S.; Cifci, G.; Ozel, S.; Atgin, O.; Ozel, O.; Barin, B.; Er, M.; Dondurur, D.; Kucuk, M.; Gurcay, S.; Choul Kim, D.; Sung-Ho, B.

2012-04-01

Recently, the continental margins of Black Sea became important for its gas content. There are no scientific researches offshore Trabzon-Giresun area except the explorations of oil companies. This is the first survey that performed in that area. 1700 km high resolution multichannel seismic and chirp data simultaneously were collected onboard R/V K.Piri Reis . The seismic data reveal BSRs, bright spots and acoustic maskings especially on the eastern part of the survey area. The survey area in the Eastern Black Sea includes continental slope, apron and deep basin. Two mud volcanoes are discovered and named as Busan and Izmir. The observed fold belt is believed to be the main driving force for the growth of mud volcanoes.Faults are developed at the flanks of diapiric uplift. Seismic attributes and AVO analysis are applied to 9 seismic sections which have probable gassy sediments and BSR zones. In the seismic attribute analysis high amplitude horzions with reverse polarity are observed in instantaneous frequency, envelope and apparent polarity sections also with low frequency at instantaneous frequency sections. These analysis verify existence of gas accumulations in the sediments. AVO analysis and cross section drawing and Gradient analysis show Class 1 AVO anomaly and indicate gas in sediments. Keywords: BSR, Bright spot, Mud volcano, Seismic Attributes, AVO

Survey Methods for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historical Masonry Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarin, M.; Balletti, C.; Faccio, P.; Guerra, F.; Saetta, A.; Vernier, P.

2017-05-01

On 20th and 29th of May 2012, two powerful earthquakes struck northern Italy. The epicentres were recorded respectively in Finale Emilia (magnitude 5.9 Ml) and Medolla (magnitude 5.8 Ml) in the province of Modena, though the earthquake was formed by a series of seismic shakes located in the district of the Emilian Po Valley, mainly in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Mantova, Reggio Emilia, Bologna and Rovigo. Many monuments in the city of Mantova were hit by the earthquake and, among these, Palazzo Ducale with the well-known Castello di San Giorgio which host the noteworthy "Camera degli Sposi". This building, the most famous of the city, was so damaged that it was closed for more than one year after the earthquake. The emblem of the Palace and Mantova itself, the previously cited "Camera degli Sposi" realized by Andrea Mantegna, was damaged and all the economic and social life of the city was deeply affected. Immediately after the earthquake, the Soprintendenza per i Beni Architettonici e Paesaggistici of Brescia, Cremona and Mantova establish an agreement with the University Iuav of Venice, requiring an analysis and assessment of the damage in order to proceed with the development of an intervention project. This activity turned out to be very important not only from the point of view of the recovery of the architectural and artistic heritage but also because the city's economy is based primarily on tourism. The closure of one of the most important monuments of Mantova has led to a significant and alarming decline in the government income.

Very-long-period seismic signals - filling the gap between deformation and seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberg, Jurgen; Smith, Paddy

2013-04-01

Good broadband seismic sensors are capable to record seismic transients with dominant wavelengths of several tens or even hundreds of seconds. This allows us to generate a multi-component record of seismic volcanic events that are located in between the conventional high to low-frequency seismic spectrum and deformation signals. With a much higher temporal resolution and accuracy than e.g. GPS records, these signals fill the gap between seismicity and deformation studies. In this contribution we will review the non-trivial processing steps necessary to retrieve ground deformation from the original velocity seismogram and explore which role the resulting displacement signals have in the analysis of volcanic events. We use examples from Soufriere Hills volcano in Montserrat, West Indies, to discuss the benefits and shortcomings of such methods regarding new insights into volcanic processes.

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Payne, Suzette; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-riskmore » informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.« less

Physical Exposure to Seismic Hazards of Health Facilities in Mexico City, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, S. M.; Novelo Casanova, D.

2010-12-01

Although health facilities are essential infrastructure during disasters and emergencies, they are also usually highly vulnerable installations in the case of the occurrence of large and major earthquakes. Hospitals are one of the most complex critical facilities in modern cities and they are used as first response in emergency situations. The operability of a hospital must be maintained after the occurrence of a local strong earthquake in order to satisfy the need for medical care of the affected population. If a health facility is seriously damaged, it cannot fulfill its function when most is needed. In this case, hospitals become a casualty of the disaster. To identify the level of physical exposure of hospitals to seismic hazards in Mexico City, we analyzed their geographic location with respect to the seismic response of the different type of soils of the city from past earthquakes, mainly from the events that occurred on September 1985 (Ms= 8.0) and April 1989 (Ms= 6.9). Seismic wave amplification in this city is the result of the interaction of the incoming seismic waves with the soft and water saturated clay soils, on which a large part of Mexico City is built. The clay soils are remnants of the lake that existed in the Valley of Mexico and which has been drained gradually to accommodate the growing urban sprawl. Hospital facilities were converted from a simple database of names and locations into a map layer of resources. This resource layer was combined with other map layers showing areas of seismic microzonation in Mexico City. This overlay was then used to identify those hospitals that may be threatened by the occurrence of a large or major seismic event. We analyzed the public and private hospitals considered as main health facilities. Our results indicate that more than 50% of the hospitals are highly exposed to seismic hazards. Besides, in most of these health facilities we identified the lack of preventive measures and preparedness to reduce their

Knowledge-Base Semantic Gap Analysis for the Vulnerability Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Raymond; Seki, Keisuke; Sakamoto, Ryusuke; Hisada, Masayuki

Web security became an alert in internet computing. To cope with ever-rising security complexity, semantic analysis is proposed to fill-in the gap that the current approaches fail to commit. Conventional methods limit their focus to the physical source codes instead of the abstraction of semantics. It bypasses new types of vulnerability and causes tremendous business loss.

Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs – An overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zang, Arno; Oye, Volker; Jousset, Philippe; Deichmann, Nicholas; Gritto, Roland; McGarr, Arthur F.; Majer, Ernest; Bruhn, David

2014-01-01

In this overview we report results of analysing induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs in various tectonic settings within the framework of the European Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of Induced Seismicity in Reservoirs (GEISER) project. In the reconnaissance phase of a field, the subsurface fault mapping, in situ stress and the seismic network are of primary interest in order to help assess the geothermal resource. The hypocentres of the observed seismic events (seismic cloud) are dependent on the design of the installed network, the used velocity model and the applied location technique. During the stimulation phase, the attention is turned to reservoir hydraulics (e.g., fluid pressure, injection volume) and its relation to larger magnitude seismic events, their source characteristics and occurrence in space and time. A change in isotropic components of the full waveform moment tensor is observed for events close to the injection well (tensile character) as compared to events further away from the injection well (shear character). Tensile events coincide with high Gutenberg-Richter b-values and low Brune stress drop values. The stress regime in the reservoir controls the direction of the fracture growth at depth, as indicated by the extent of the seismic cloud detected. Stress magnitudes are important in multiple stimulation of wells, where little or no seismicity is observed until the previous maximum stress level is exceeded (Kaiser Effect). Prior to drilling, obtaining a 3D P-wave (Vp) and S-wave velocity (Vs) model down to reservoir depth is recommended. In the stimulation phase, we recommend to monitor and to locate seismicity with high precision (decametre) in real-time and to perform local 4D tomography for velocity ratio (Vp/Vs). During exploitation, one should use observed and model induced seismicity to forward estimate seismic hazard so that field operators are in a position to adjust well hydraulics (rate and volume of the

Accuracy and sensitivity analysis on seismic anisotropy parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuyong; Han, De-Hua

2018-04-01

There is significant uncertainty in measuring the Thomsen’s parameter δ in laboratory even though the dimensions and orientations of the rock samples are known. It is expected that more challenges will be encountered in the estimating of the seismic anisotropy parameters from field seismic data. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of vertical transversely isotropic layer cake model using the database of laboratory anisotropy measurement from the literature, we apply the commonly used quartic non-hyperbolic reflection moveout equation to estimate the seismic anisotropy parameters and test its accuracy and sensitivities to the source-receive offset, vertical interval velocity error and time picking error. The testing results show that the methodology works perfectly for noise-free synthetic data with short spread length. However, this method is extremely sensitive to the time picking error caused by mild random noises, and it requires the spread length to be greater than the depth of the reflection event. The uncertainties increase rapidly for the deeper layers and the estimated anisotropy parameters can be very unreliable for a layer with more than five overlain layers. It is possible that an isotropic formation can be misinterpreted as a strong anisotropic formation. The sensitivity analysis should provide useful guidance on how to group the reflection events and build a suitable geological model for anisotropy parameter inversion.

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Payne, Suzette Jackson; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures for Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 1 study and included a Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) to provide the confident technical basis and mean-centered estimates of the ground motions. A new risk-informed methodology for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA was developed as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project. To develop and implement the newmore » methodology, the SRA project elected to perform two SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs. The first was for the Fuel Manufacturing Facility (FMF), which is classified as a Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3 nuclear facility. The second was for the ATR Complex, which has facilities classified as SDC-4. The new methodology requires defensible estimates of ground motion levels (mean and full distribution of uncertainty) for its criteria and evaluation process. The INL SSHAC Level 1 PSHA demonstrates the use of the PPRP, evaluation and integration through utilization of a small team with multiple roles and responsibilities (four team members and one specialty contractor), and the feasibility of a short duration schedule (10 months). Additionally, a SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels for the Spent Fuel Handling Recapitalization Project (SFHP) process facility.« less

Detailed Analysis of the Interoccurrence Time Statistics in Seismic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroki; Aizawa, Yoji

2017-02-01

The interoccurrence time statistics of seismiciry is studied theoretically as well as numerically by taking into account the conditional probability and the correlations among many earthquakes in different magnitude levels. It is known so far that the interoccurrence time statistics is well approximated by the Weibull distribution, but the more detailed information about the interoccurrence times can be obtained from the analysis of the conditional probability. Firstly, we propose the Embedding Equation Theory (EET), where the conditional probability is described by two kinds of correlation coefficients; one is the magnitude correlation and the other is the inter-event time correlation. Furthermore, the scaling law of each correlation coefficient is clearly determined from the numerical data-analysis carrying out with the Preliminary Determination of Epicenter (PDE) Catalog and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Catalog. Secondly, the EET is examined to derive the magnitude dependence of the interoccurrence time statistics and the multi-fractal relation is successfully formulated. Theoretically we cannot prove the universality of the multi-fractal relation in seismic activity; nevertheless, the theoretical results well reproduce all numerical data in our analysis, where several common features or the invariant aspects are clearly observed. Especially in the case of stationary ensembles the multi-fractal relation seems to obey an invariant curve, furthermore in the case of non-stationary (moving time) ensembles for the aftershock regime the multi-fractal relation seems to satisfy a certain invariant curve at any moving times. It is emphasized that the multi-fractal relation plays an important role to unify the statistical laws of seismicity: actually the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Weibull distribution are unified in the multi-fractal relation, and some universality conjectures regarding the seismicity are briefly discussed.

Protocol vulnerability detection based on network traffic analysis and binary reverse engineering.

PubMed

Wen, Shameng; Meng, Qingkun; Feng, Chao; Tang, Chaojing

2017-01-01

Network protocol vulnerability detection plays an important role in many domains, including protocol security analysis, application security, and network intrusion detection. In this study, by analyzing the general fuzzing method of network protocols, we propose a novel approach that combines network traffic analysis with the binary reverse engineering method. For network traffic analysis, the block-based protocol description language is introduced to construct test scripts, while the binary reverse engineering method employs the genetic algorithm with a fitness function designed to focus on code coverage. This combination leads to a substantial improvement in fuzz testing for network protocols. We build a prototype system and use it to test several real-world network protocol implementations. The experimental results show that the proposed approach detects vulnerabilities more efficiently and effectively than general fuzzing methods such as SPIKE.

Recent Seismicity in Texas and Research Design and Progress of the TexNet-CISR Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennings, P.; Savvaidis, A.; Rathje, E.; Olson, J. E.; DeShon, H. R.; Datta-Gupta, A.; Eichhubl, P.; Nicot, J. P.; Kahlor, L. A.

2017-12-01

The recent increase in the rate of seismicity in Texas has prompted the establishment of an interdisciplinary, interinstitutional collaboration led by the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology which includes the TexNet Seismic Monitoring and Research project as funded by The State of Texas (roughly 2/3rds of our funding) and the industry-funded Center for Integrated Seismicity Research (CISR) (1/3 of funding). TexNet is monitoring and cataloging seismicity across Texas using a new backbone seismic network, investigating site-specific earthquake sequences by deploying temporary seismic monitoring stations, and conducting reservoir modeling studies. CISR expands TexNet research into the interdisciplinary realm to more thoroughly study the factors that contribute to seismicity, characterize the associated hazard and risk, develop strategies for mitigation and management, and develop methods of effective communication for all stakeholders. The TexNet-CISR research portfolio has 6 themes: seismicity monitoring, seismology, geologic and hydrologic description, geomechanics and reservoir modeling, seismic hazard and risk assessment, and seismic risk social science. Twenty+ specific research projects span and connect these themes. We will provide a synopsis of research progress including recent seismicity trends in Texas; Fort Worth Basin integrated studies including geological modeling and fault characterization, fluid injection data syntheses, and reservoir and geomechanical modeling; regional ground shaking characterization and mapping, infrastructure vulnerability assessment; and social science topics of public perception and information seeking behavior.

Landscape Vulnerability Analysis from Historic Lower Mississippi River Flood in 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwell, A. E.; Zhu, Z.; Dutta, D.; Greenberg, J.; Kumar, P.; Garcia, M. H.; Rhoads, B. L.; Parker, G.; Berretta, D.; Holmes, R. R.

2012-12-01

This study presents the results of a landscape vulnerability analysis of the Birds Point New Madrid Floodway in southeastern Missouri. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers intentionally inundated 500 square kilometers of agricultural floodplain in May of 2011 as an emergency flood control measure. We use pre-flood (2005) and post-flood (2011) high resolution Lidar data to establish the landscape impact of the levee breach on the floodplain. The Lidar DEMs were corrected for flight line errors using a Fourier filtering technique, and then subtracted to obtain a differential DEM of erosion and deposition patterns. We use soil erosion characteristics, AVIRIS remote sensing data, and 2D floodplain modeling to analyze the three components of vulnerability: sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. HydroSed2D (Liu, Landry and García 2008), a 2D flow model, is implemented to simulate flow depths and speeds, or flood exposure, over the entire floodway, as well as smaller sections at increased resolution using a nested grid. We classify woody vegetation based on AVIRIS remote sensing data, and represent vegetated regions in the model as varied values of the Manning's n coefficient. Soil erodibility, vegetation, topography, and flow characteristics are compared to observed landscape changes within the floodplain. Overall, the floodway showed a remarkable resilience to an extreme flood event. When compared to levee breaches on similar rivers in other floods, the lack of newly deposited sediment is noticeable and likely attributable to the presence of a substantial riparian corridor between the main channel of the Mississippi River and the floodway. Although many meander scars indicating former channels of the Mississippi River are apparent in the topography, only one, known as O'Bryan Ridge, experienced high volumes of erosion and deposition due to the flooding. The vulnerability analysis supports the hypothesis this high impact is due to a combination of vulnerability

The role of GIS in urban seismic risk studies: application to the city of Almería (southern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.; Bernabé, M. A.

2013-11-01

This work describes the structure and characteristics of the geographic information system (GIS) developed for the urban seismic risk study of the city of Almería (southern Spain), identifying the stages in which the use of this tool proved to be very beneficial for adopting informed decisions throughout the execution of the work. After the completion of the regional emergency plans for seismic risk in Spain and its subsequent approval by the National Civil Defence Commission, the municipalities that need to develop specific local seismic risk plans have been identified. Hence, the next action is to develop urban seismic risk analyses at a proper scale (Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation - Risk-UR). For this evaluation, different factors influencing seismic risk such as seismic hazard, geotechnical soil characteristics, vulnerability of structures of the region, reparation costs of damaged buildings and exposed population are combined. All these variables are gathered and analysed within a GIS and subsequently used for seismic risk estimation. The GIS constitutes a highly useful working tool because it facilitates data interoperability, making the great volume of information required and the numerous processes that take part in the calculations easier to handle, speeding up the analysis and the interpretation and presentation of the results of the different working phases. The result of this study is based on a great set of variables that provide a comprehensive view of the urban seismic risk, such as the damage distribution of buildings and dwellings of different typologies, the mean damage and the number of uninhabitable buildings for the expected seismic motion, the number of dead and injured at different times of the day, the cost of reconstruction and repair of buildings, among others. These results are intended for interpretation and decision making in emergency management by unspecialised users (Civil Defence technicians and managers).

Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active tectonic and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Raed; Adris, Ahmad; Singh, Ramesh

2016-07-01

In the present work, we discuss the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. The present study is the first time effort to create seismic hazard map with the help of GIS. In the proposed approach, we have used Aster satellite data, digital elevation data (30 m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters to be included in the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data is introduced to the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and using the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques (Deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time we have used numerous parameters using remote sensing and GIS in preparation of seismic hazard map which is found to be very realistic.

Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction.

PubMed

Esterhuyse, Surina; Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J

2017-11-01

Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article.

Vulnerability mapping as a tool to manage the environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction

PubMed Central

Sokolic, Frank; Redelinghuys, Nola; Avenant, Marinda; Kijko, Andrzej; Glazewski, Jan; Plit, Lisa; Kemp, Marthie; Smit, Ansie; Vos, A. Tascha; von Maltitz, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Various biophysical and socio-economic impacts may be associated with unconventional oil and gas (UOG) extraction. A vulnerability map may assist governments during environmental assessments, spatial planning and the regulation of UOG extraction, as well as decision-making around UOG extraction in fragile areas. A regional interactive vulnerability map was developed for UOG extraction in South Africa. This map covers groundwater, surface water, vegetation, socio-economics and seismicity as mapping themes, based on impacts that may emanate from UOG extraction. The mapping themes were developed using a normative approach, where expert input during the identification and classification of vulnerability indicators may increase the acceptability of the resultant map. This article describes the development of the interactive vulnerability map for South Africa, where UOG extraction is not yet allowed and where regulations are still being developed to manage this activity. The importance and policy implications of using vulnerability maps for managing UOG extraction impacts in countries where UOG extraction is planned are highlighted in this article. PMID:29291094

Real Time Seismic Loss Estimation in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goretti, A.; Sabetta, F.

2009-04-01

By more than 15 years the Seismic Risk Office is able to perform a real-time evaluation of the earthquake potential loss in any part of Italy. Once the epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake are made available by the National Institute for Geophysiscs and Volca-nology, the model, based on the Italian Geographic Information Sys-tems, is able to evaluate the extent of the damaged area and the consequences on the built environment. In recent years the model has been significantly improved with new methodologies able to conditioning the uncertainties using observa-tions coming from the fields during the first days after the event. However it is reputed that the main challenges in loss analysis are related to the input data, more than to methodologies. Unlike the ur-ban scenario, where the missing data can be collected with enough accuracy, the country-wise analysis requires the use of existing data bases, often collected for other purposed than seismic scenario evaluation, and hence in some way lacking of completeness and homogeneity. Soil properties, building inventory and population dis-tribution are the main input data that are to be known in any site of the whole Italian territory. To this end the National Census on Popu-lation and Dwellings has provided information on the residential building types and the population that lives in that building types. The critical buildings, such as Hospital, Fire Brigade Stations, Schools, are not included in the inventory, since the national plan for seismic risk assessment of critical buildings is still under way. The choice of a proper soil motion parameter, its attenuation with distance and the building type fragility are important ingredients of the model as well. The presentation will focus on the above mentioned issues, highlight-ing the different data sets used and their accuracy, and comparing the model, input data and results when geographical areas with dif-ferent extent are considered: from the urban scenarios

Seismic analysis of the frame structure reformed by cutting off column and jacking based on stiffness ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J. K.; Xu, X. S.

2017-11-01

The cutting off column and jacking technology is a method for increasing story height, which has been widely used and paid much attention in engineering. The stiffness will be changed after the process of cutting off column and jacking, which directly affects the overall seismic performance. It is usually necessary to take seismic strengthening measures to enhance the stiffness. A five story frame structure jacking project in Jinan High-tech Zone was taken as an example, and three finite element models were established which contains the frame model before lifting, after lifting and after strengthening. Based on the stiffness, the dynamic time-history analysis was carried out to research its seismic performance under the EL-Centro seismic wave, the Taft seismic wave and the Tianjin artificial seismic wave. The research can provide some guidance for the design and construction of the entire jack lifting structure.

Structure of Suasselkä Postglacial Fault in northern Finland obtained by analysis of ambient seismic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afonin, Nikita; Kozlovskaya, Elena

2016-04-01

Understanding inner structure of seismogenic faults and their ability to reactivate is particularly important in investigating the continental intraplate seismicity regime. In our study we address this problem using analysis of ambient seismic noise recorded by the temporary DAFNE array in northern Fennoscandian Shield. The main purpose of the DAFNE/FINLAND passive seismic array experiment was to characterize the present-day seismicity of the Suasselkä post-glacial fault (SPGF) that was proposed as one potential target for the DAFNE (Drilling Active Faults in Northern Europe) project. The DAFNE/FINLAND array comprised the area of about 20 to 100 km and consisted of 8 short-period and 4 broad-band 3-component autonomous seismic stations installed in the close vicinity of the fault area. The array recorded continuous seismic data during September, 2011-May, 2013. Recordings of the array have being analyzed in order to identify and locate natural earthquakes from the fault area and to discriminate them from the blasts in the Kittilä Gold Mine. As a result, we found several dozens of natural seismic events originating from the fault area, which proves that the fault is still seismically active. In order to study the inner structure of the SPGF we use cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise recorded by the array. Analysis of azimuthal distribution of noise sources demonstrated that that during the time interval under consideration the distribution of noise sources is close to the uniform one. The continuous data were processed in several steps including single station data analysis, instrument response removal and time-domain stacking. The data were used to estimate empirical Green's functions between pairs of stations in the frequency band of 0.1-1 Hz and to calculate correspondent surface wave dispersion curves. After that S-wave velocity models were obtained as a result of dispersion curves inversion using Geopsy software. The results suggest that the area of

Seismic Analysis of Three Bomb Explosions in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necmioglu, O.; Semin, K. U.; Kocak, S.; Destici, C.; Teoman, U.; Ozel, N. M.

2016-12-01

Seismic analysis of three vehicle-installed bomb explosions occurred on 13 March 2016 in Ankara, 12 May 2016 in Diyarbakır and 9 July 2016 in Mardin have been conducted using data from the nearest stations (LOD, DYBB and MAZI) of the Boğaziçi University - Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute's (KOERI) seismic network and compared with low-magnitude earthquakes in similar distance based on phase readings and frequency content. Amplitude spectra has been compared through Fourier transformation and earthquake-explosion frequency discrimination has been performed using various filter bands. Time-domain and spectral analysis have been performed using Geotool software provided by CTBTO. Local magnitude (ML) values have been calculated for each explosion by removing instrument-response and adding Wood-Anderson type instrument response. Approximate amount of explosives used in these explosions have been determined using empirical methods of Koper (2002). Preliminary results indicated that 16 tons TNT equivalent explosives have been used in 12 May 2016 Diyarbakır explosion, which is very much in accordance with the media reports claiming 15 tons of TNT. Our analysis for 9 July 2016 Mardin explosion matched the reported 5 tons of explosives. Results concerning 13 March 2016 Ankara explosion indicated that approximately 1,7 ton of TNT equivalent explosives were used in the attack whereas security and intelligence reports claimed 300 kg explosives as a combination of TNT, RDX and ammonium nitrate. The overestimated results obtained in our analysis for the Ankara explosion may be related due to i) high relative effectiveness factor of the RDX component of the explosive ii) inefficiency of Koper (2002) method in lower yields (since the method was developed using explosions with yields of 3-12 tons of TNT), iii) combination of both.

Preliminary Analysis of Remote Triggered Seismicity in Northern Baja California Generated by the 2011, Tohoku-Oki, Japan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Ortega, V.; Castro, R. R.; Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Velasco, A. A.

2013-05-01

We analyze possible variations of seismicity in the northern Baja California due to the passage of seismic waves from the 2011, M9.0, Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. The northwestern area of Baja California is characterized by a mountain range composed of crystalline rocks. These Peninsular Ranges of Baja California exhibits high microseismic activity and moderate size earthquakes. In the eastern region of Baja California shearing between the Pacific and the North American plates takes place and the Imperial and Cerro-Prieto faults generate most of the seismicity. The seismicity in these regions is monitored by the seismic network RESNOM operated by the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE). This network consists of 13 three-component seismic stations. We use the seismic catalog of RESNOM to search for changes in local seismic rates occurred after the passing of surface waves generated by the Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake. When we compare one month of seismicity before and after the M9.0 earthquake, the preliminary analysis shows absence of triggered seismicity in the northern Peninsular Ranges and an increase of seismicity south of the Mexicali valley where the Imperial fault jumps southwest and the Cerro Prieto fault continues.

Broadband analysis of landslides seismic signal : example of the Oso-Steelhead landslide and other recent events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, C.; Stark, C. P.; Ekstrom, G.

2014-12-01

Landslide failures on the scale of mountains are spectacular, dangerous, and spontaneous, making direct observations hard to obtain. Measurement of their dynamic properties during runout is a high research priority, but a logistical and technical challenge. Seismology has begun to help in several important ways. Taking advantage of broadband seismic stations, recent advances now allow: (i) the seismic detection and location of large landslides in near-real-time, even for events in very remote areas that may have remain undetected, such as the 2014 Mt La Perouse supraglacial failure in Alaska; (ii) inversion of long-period waves generated by large landslides to yield an estimate of the forces imparted by the bulk accelerating mass; (iii) inference of the landslide mass, its center-of-mass velocity over time, and its trajectory.Key questions persist, such as: What can the short-period seismic data tell us about the high-frequency impacts taking place within the granular flow and along its boundaries with the underlying bedrock? And how does this seismicity relate to the bulk acceleration of the landslide and the long-period seismicity generated by it?Our recent work on the joint analysis of short- and long-period seismic signals generated by past and recent events, such as the Bingham Canyon Mine and the Oso-Steelhead landslides, provides new insights to tackle these issues. Qualitative comparison between short-period signal features and kinematic parameters inferred from long-period surface wave inversion helps to refine interpretation of the source dynamics and to understand the different mechanisms for the origin of the short-period wave radiation. Our new results also suggest that quantitative relationships can be derived from this joint analysis, in particular between the short-period seismic signal envelope and the inferred momentum of the center-of-mass. In the future, these quantitative relationships may help to constrain and calibrate parameters used in

Analysis of Deep Long-Period Subglacial Seismicity in Marie Byrd Land, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, N. D.; Aster, R. C.; Myers, E. K.; Lough, A. C.

2017-12-01

We utilize subspace detection methodology to extend the detection and analysis of deep, long-period seismic activity associated with the subglacial and lower crust magmatic complex beneath the Executive Committee Range volcanoes of Marie Byrd Land (Lough et al., 2013). The Marie Byrd Land (MBL) volcanic province is a remote continental region that is almost completely covered by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The southern extent of Marie Byrd Land lies within the West Antarctic Rift System (WARS), which includes the volcanic Executive Committee Range. Lough et al. noted that seismic stations in the POLENET/ANET seismic network detected two swarms of seismic activity during 2010 and 2011. These events have been interpreted as deep, long-period (DLP) earthquakes based on their depth (25-40 km), tectonic context, and low frequency spectra. The DLP events in MBL lie beneath an inferred volcanic edifice that is visible in ice penetrating radar images via subglacial topography and intraglacial ash deposits, and have been interpreted as a present location of Moho-proximal magmatic activity. The magmatic swarm activity in MBL provides a promising target for advanced subspace detection, and for the temporal, spatial, and event size analysis of an extensive deep long period earthquake swarm using a remote and sparse seismographic network. We utilized a catalog of 1370 traditionally identified DLP events to construct subspace detectors for the nine nearest stations using two years of data spanning 2010-2011. Via subspace detection we increase the number of observable detections more than 70 times at the highest signal to noise station while decreasing the overall minimum magnitude of completeness. In addition to the two previously identified swarms during early 2010 and early 2011, we find sustained activity throughout the two years of study that includes several previously unidentified periods of heightened activity. These events have a very high Gutenberg-Richter b

Magma migration at the onset of the 2012-13 Tolbachik eruption revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caudron, Corentin; Taisne, Benoit; Kugaenko, Yulia; Saltykov, Vadim

2015-12-01

In contrast of the 1975-76 Tolbachik eruption, the 2012-13 Tolbachik eruption was not preceded by any striking change in seismic activity. By processing the Klyuchevskoy volcano group seismic data with the Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis (SARA) method, we gain insights into the dynamics of magma movement prior to this important eruption. A clear seismic migration within the seismic swarm, started 20 hours before the reported eruption onset (05:15 UTC, 26 November 2012). This migration proceeded in different phases and ended when eruptive tremor, corresponding to lava flows, was recorded (at 11:00 UTC, 27 November 2012). In order to get a first order approximation of the magma location, we compare the calculated seismic intensity ratios with the theoretical ones. As expected, the observations suggest that the seismicity migrated toward the eruption location. However, we explain the pre-eruptive observed ratios by a vertical migration under the northern slope of Plosky Tolbachik volcano followed by a lateral migration toward the eruptive vents. Another migration is also captured by this technique and coincides with a seismic swarm that started 16-20 km to the south of Plosky Tolbachik at 20:31 UTC on November 28 and lasted for more than 2 days. This seismic swarm is very similar to the seismicity preceding the 1975-76 Tolbachik eruption and can be considered as a possible aborted eruption.

Dominant seismic sources for the cities in South Sumatra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunardi, Bambang; Sakya, Andi Eka; Masturyono, Murjaya, Jaya; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri, Putra, Ade Surya

2017-07-01

Subduction zone along west of Sumatra and Sumatran fault zone are active seismic sources. Seismotectonically, South Sumatra could be affected by earthquakes triggered by these seismic sources. This paper discussed contribution of each seismic source to earthquake hazards for cities of Palembang, Prabumulih, Banyuasin, OganIlir, Ogan Komering Ilir, South Oku, Musi Rawas and Empat Lawang. These hazards are presented in form of seismic hazard curves. The study was conducted by using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) of 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. Seismic sources used in analysis included megathrust zone M2 of Sumatra and South Sumatra, background seismic sources and shallow crustal seismic sources consist of Ketaun, Musi, Manna and Kumering faults. The results of the study showed that for cities relatively far from the seismic sources, subduction / megathrust seismic source with a depth ≤ 50 km greatly contributed to the seismic hazard and the other areas showed deep background seismic sources with a depth of more than 100 km dominate to seismic hazard respectively.

WHE-PAGER Project: A new initiative in estimating global building inventory and its seismic vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, K.A.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.; Greene, M.; Comartin, Craig

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquake’s Response (PAGER) Project and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE) are creating a global database of building stocks and their earthquake vulnerability. The WHE already represents a growing, community-developed public database of global housing and its detailed structural characteristics. It currently contains more than 135 reports on particular housing types in 40 countries. The WHE-PAGER effort extends the WHE in several ways: (1) by addressing non-residential construction; (2) by quantifying the prevalence of each building type in both rural and urban areas; (3) by addressing day and night occupancy patterns, (4) by adding quantitative vulnerability estimates from judgment or statistical observation; and (5) by analytically deriving alternative vulnerability estimates using in part laboratory testing.

Detecting Seismic Activity with a Covariance Matrix Analysis of Data Recorded on Seismic Arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seydoux, L.; Shapiro, N.; de Rosny, J.; Brenguier, F.

2014-12-01

Modern seismic networks are recording the ground motion continuously all around the word, with very broadband and high-sensitivity sensors. The aim of our study is to apply statistical array-based approaches to processing of these records. We use the methods mainly brought from the random matrix theory in order to give a statistical description of seismic wavefields recorded at the Earth's surface. We estimate the array covariance matrix and explore the distribution of its eigenvalues that contains information about the coherency of the sources that generated the studied wavefields. With this approach, we can make distinctions between the signals generated by isolated deterministic sources and the "random" ambient noise. We design an algorithm that uses the distribution of the array covariance matrix eigenvalues to detect signals corresponding to coherent seismic events. We investigate the detection capacity of our methods at different scales and in different frequency ranges by applying it to the records of two networks: (1) the seismic monitoring network operating on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano at La Réunion island composed of 21 receivers and with an aperture of ~15 km, and (2) the transportable component of the USArray composed of ~400 receivers with ~70 km inter-station spacing.

Genie: An Inference Engine with Applications to Vulnerability Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

Stanford Artifcial intelligence Laboratory, 1976. 15 D. A. Waterman and F. Hayes-Roth, eds. Pattern-Directed Inference Systems. Academic Press, Inc...Continue an reverse aide It nlecessary mid Identify by block rnmbor) ; f Expert Systems Artificial Intelligence % Vulnerability Analysis Knowledge...deduction it is used wherever possible in data -driven mode (forward chaining). Production rules - JIM 0 g79OOFMV55@S I INCLASSTpnF SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

Periodicity of Strong Seismicity in Italy: Schuster Spectrum Analysis Extended to the Destructive Earthquakes of 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bragato, P. L.

2017-10-01

The strong earthquakes that occurred in Italy between 2009 and 2016 represent an abrupt acceleration of seismicity in respect of the previous 30 years. Such behavior seems to agree with the periodic rate change I observed in a previous paper. The present work improves that study by extending the data set up to the end of 2016, adopting the latest version of the historical seismic catalog of Italy, and introducing Schuster spectrum analysis for the detection of the oscillatory period and the assessment of its statistical significance. Applied to the declustered catalog of M w ≥ 6 earthquakes that occurred between 1600 and 2016, the analysis individuates a marked periodicity of 46 years, which is recognized above the 95% confidence level. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the oscillatory behavior is stable in respect of random errors on magnitude estimation. A parametric oscillatory model for the annual rate of seismicity is estimated by likelihood maximization under the hypothesis of inhomogeneous Poisson point process. According to the Akaike Information Criterion, such model outperforms the simpler homogeneous one with constant annual rate. A further element emerges form the analysis: so far, despite recent earthquakes, the Italian seismicity is still within a long-term decreasing trend established since the first half of the twentieth century.

Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

PubMed

Seidel, Bastian M; Bell, Erica

2014-11-28

Many countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people. The study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 ('developed') countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A 'critical computational linguistics' method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis. The study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present. The conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a 'social determinants of health' definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

Role of reservoirs in sustained seismicity of Koyna-Warna region—a statistical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Amrita; Gahalaut, Kalpna; Purnachandra Rao, N.

2018-03-01

Koyna-Warna region in western India is a globally recognized site of reservoir-triggered seismicity near the Koyna and Warna reservoirs. The region has been reported with several M > 5 earthquakes in the last five decades including M6.3 Koyna earthquake which is considered as the largest triggered earthquake worldwide. In the present study, a detailed statistical analysis has been done for long period earthquake catalogues during 1968-2004 of MERI and 2005-2012 of CSIR-NGRI to find out the spatio-temporal influence of the Koyna and Warna reservoirs impoundment on the seismicity of the region. Depending upon the earthquake clusters, we divided the region into three different zones and performed power spectrum and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) on them. For the time period 1983-1995, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir; for 1996-2004, the earthquake zone near the Koyna reservoir; and for 2005-2012, the earthquake zone near the Warna reservoir found to be influenced by the annual water level variations in the reservoirs that confirm the continuous role of both the reservoirs in the seismicity of the Koyna-Warna region.

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

2018-03-01

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV vaccination: comparing the general population with socially vulnerable individuals.

PubMed

Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Sun Jung; Lee, Seo Yoon; Park, Eun-Cheol

2014-01-01

After the WHO recommended HPV vaccination of the general population in 2009, government support of HPV vaccination programs was increased in many countries. However, this policy was not implemented in Korea due to perceived low cost-effectiveness. Thus, the aim of this study was to analyze the cost-utility of HPV vaccination programs targeted to high risk populations as compared to vaccination programs for the general population. Each study population was set to 100,000 people in a simulation study to determine the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR), then standard prevalence rates, cost, vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy, and the Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) were applied to the analysis. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed by assuming discounted vaccination cost. In the socially vulnerable population, QALYs gained through HPV vaccination were higher than that of the general population (General population: 1,019, Socially vulnerable population: 5,582). The results of ICUR showed that the cost of HPV vaccination was higher for the general population than the socially vulnerable population. (General population: 52,279,255 KRW, Socially vulnerable population: 9,547,347 KRW). Compared with 24 million KRW/QALYs as the social threshold, vaccination of the general population was not cost-effective. In contrast, vaccination of the socially vulnerable population was strongly cost-effective. The results suggest the importance and necessity of government support of HPV vaccination programs targeted to socially vulnerable populations because a targeted approach is much more cost-effective. The implementation of government support for such vaccination programs is a critical strategy for decreasing the burden of HPV infection in Korea.

Statistical Analysis and ETAS Modeling of Seismicity Induced by Production of Geothermal Energy from Hydrothermal Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinske, C.; Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

2017-12-01

We investigate seismicity related to hydrothermal systems in Germany and Italy, focussing on temporal changes of seismicity rates. Our analysis was motivated by numerical simulations The modeling of stress changes caused by the injection and production of fluid revealed that seismicity rates decrease on a long-term perspective which is not observed in the considered case studies. We analyze the waiting time distributions of the seismic events in both time domain (inter event times) and fluid volume domain (inter event volume). We find clear indications that the observed seismicity comprises two components: (1) seismicity that is directly triggered by production and re-injection of fluid, i.e. induced events, and (2) seismicity that is triggered by earthquake interactions, i.e. aftershock triggering. In order to better constrain our numerical simulations using the observed induced seismicity we apply catalog declustering to seperate the two components. We use the magnitude-dependent space-time windowing approach introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and test several published algorithms to calculate the space-time windows. After declustering, we conclude that the different hydrothermal reservoirs show a comparable seismic response to the circulation of fluid and additional triggering by earthquake interactions. The declustered catalogs contain approximately 50 per cent of the number of events in the original catalogs. We then perform ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock; Ogata, 1986, 1988) modeling for two reasons. First, we want to know whether the different reservoirs are also comparable regarding earthquake interaction patterns. Second, if we identify systematic patterns, ETAS modeling can contribute to forecast seismicity during production of geothermal energy. We find that stationary ETAS models cannot accurately capture real seismicity rate changes. One reason for this finding is given by the rate of observed induced events which is not constant over time. Hence

Transient postseismic mantle relaxation following 2004 Sumatra earthquake: implications of seismic vulnerability in the Andaman-Nicobar region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, C. D.; Prajapati, S. K.; Sunil, P. S.; Arora, S. K.

2012-02-01

Throughout the world, the tsunami generation potential of some large under-sea earthquakes significantly contributes to regional seismic hazard, which gives rise to significant risk in the near-shore provinces where human settlements are in sizeable population, often referred to as coastal seismic risk. In this context, we show from the pertinent GPS data that the transient stresses generated by the viscoelastic relaxation process taking place in the mantle is capable of rupturing major faults by stress transfer from the mantle through the lower crust including triggering additional rupture on the other major faults. We also infer that postseismic relaxation at relatively large depths can push some of the fault segments to reactivation causing failure sequences. As an illustration to these effects, we consider in detail the earthquake sequence comprising six events, starting from the main event of Mw = 7.5, on 10 August 2009 and tapering off to a small earthquake of Mw = 4.5 on 2 February 2011 over a period of eighteen months in the intensely seismic Andaman Islands between India and Myanmar. The persisting transient stresses, spatio-temporal seismic pattern, modeled Coulomb stress changes, and the southward migration of earthquake activity has increased the probability of moderate earthquakes recurring in the northern Andaman region, particularly closer to or somewhat south of Diglipur.

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

HANFORD DOUBLE SHELL TANK (DST) THERMAL & SEISMIC PROJECT SEISMIC ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF INCREASED LIQUID LEVEL IN 241-AP TANK FARMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MACKEY TC; ABBOTT FG; CARPENTER BG

2007-02-16

The overall scope of the project is to complete an up-to-date comprehensive analysis of record of the DST System at Hanford. The "Double-Shell Tank (DST) Integrity Project - DST Thermal and Seismic Project" is in support of Tri-Party Agreement Milestone M-48-14.

InSAR Surface Deformation and Source Modelling at Semisopochnoi Island During the 2014 and 2015 Seismic Swarms with Constraints from Geochemical and Seismic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeGrandpre, K.; Pesicek, J. D.; Lu, Z.

2017-12-01

During the summer of 2014 and the early spring of 2015 two notable increases in seismic activity at Semisopochnoi Island in the western Aleutian islands were recorded on AVO seismometers on Semisopochnoi and neighboring islands. These seismic swarms did not lead to an eruption. This study employs interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques using TerraSAR-X images in conjunction with more accurately relocating the recorded seismic events through simultaneous inversion of event travel times and a three-dimensional velocity model using tomoDD. The InSAR images exhibit surprising coherence and an island wide spatial distribution of inflation that is then used in Mogi, Okada, spheroid, and ellipsoid source models in order to define the three-dimensional location and volume change required for a source at the volcano to produce the observed surface deformation. The tomoDD relocations provide a more accurate and realistic three-dimensional velocity model as well as a tighter clustering of events for both swarms that clearly outline a linear seismic void within the larger group of shallow (<10 km) seismicity. The source models are fit to this void and pressure estimates from geochemical analysis are used to verify the storage depth of magmas at Semisopochnoi. Comparisons of calculated source cavity, magma injection, and surface deformation volumes are made in order to assess the reality behind the various modelling estimates. Incorporating geochemical and seismic data to provide constraints on surface deformation source inversions provides an interdisciplinary approach that can be used to make more accurate interpretations of dynamic observations.

Analysis of some seismic expressions of Big Injun sandstone and its adjacent interval

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiangdong, Zou; Wilson, T.A.; Donaldson, A.C.

1991-08-01

The Big Injun sandstone is an important oil and gas reservoir in western West Virginia. The pre-Greenbrier unconformity has complicated correlations, and hydrocarbon explorationists commonly have misidentified the Big Injun in the absence of a regional stratigraphic study. Paleogeologic maps on this unconformity show the West Virginia dome, with the Price/Pocono units truncated resulting in pinch-outs of different sandstones against the overlying Big Lime (Greenbrier Limestone). Drillers have named the first sandstone below the Big Lime as Big Injun, and miscorrelated the real Big Injun with Squaw, upper Weir, and even the Berea sandstone. In this report, an 8-mi (13-km)more » seismic section extending from Kanawha to Clay counties was interpreted. The study area is near the pinch-out of the Big Injun sandstone. A stratigraphic cross section was constructed from gamma-ray logs for comparison with the seismic interpretation. The modeling and interpretation of the seismic section recognized the relief on the unconformity and the ability to determine facies changes, too. Both geophysical wireline and seismic data can be used for detailed stratigraphic analysis within the Granny Creek oil field of Clay and Roane countries.« less

Noise analysis of the seismic system employed in the northern and southern California seismic nets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, J.P.

1984-01-01

The seismic networks have been designed and operated to support recording on Develocorders (less than 40db dynamic range) and analog magnetic tape (about 50 db dynamic range). The principal analysis of the records has been based on Develocorder films; and background earth noise levels have been adjusted to be about 1 to 2 mm p-p on the film readers. Since the traces are separated by only 10 to 12 mm on the reader screen, they become hopelessly tangled when signal amplitudes on several adjacent traces exceed 10 to 20 mm p-p. Thus, the background noise level is hardly more than 20 db below the level of largest readable signals. The situation is somewhat better on tape playbacks, but the high level of background noise set to accomodate processing from film records effectively limits the range of maximum-signal to background-earth-noise on high gain channels to a little more than 30 db. Introduction of the PDP 11/44 seismic data acquisition system has increased the potential dynamic range of recorded network signals to more than 60 db. To make use of this increased dynamic range we must evaluate the characteristics and performance of the seismic system. In particular, we must determine whether the electronic noise in the system is or can be made sufficiently low so that background earth noise levels can be lowered significantly to take advantage of the increased dynamic range of the digital recording system. To come to grips with the complex problem of system noise, we have carried out a number of measurements and experiments to evaluate critical components of the system as well as to determine the noise characteristics of the system as a whole.

Performance-based seismic design of nonstructural building components: The next frontier of earthquake engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filiatrault, Andre; Sullivan, Timothy

2014-08-01

With the development and implementation of performance-based earthquake engineering, harmonization of performance levels between structural and nonstructural components becomes vital. Even if the structural components of a building achieve a continuous or immediate occupancy performance level after a seismic event, failure of architectural, mechanical or electrical components can lower the performance level of the entire building system. This reduction in performance caused by the vulnerability of nonstructural components has been observed during recent earthquakes worldwide. Moreover, nonstructural damage has limited the functionality of critical facilities, such as hospitals, following major seismic events. The investment in nonstructural components and building contents is far greater than that of structural components and framing. Therefore, it is not surprising that in many past earthquakes, losses from damage to nonstructural components have exceeded losses from structural damage. Furthermore, the failure of nonstructural components can become a safety hazard or can hamper the safe movement of occupants evacuating buildings, or of rescue workers entering buildings. In comparison to structural components and systems, there is relatively limited information on the seismic design of nonstructural components. Basic research work in this area has been sparse, and the available codes and guidelines are usually, for the most part, based on past experiences, engineering judgment and intuition, rather than on objective experimental and analytical results. Often, design engineers are forced to start almost from square one after each earthquake event: to observe what went wrong and to try to prevent repetitions. This is a consequence of the empirical nature of current seismic regulations and guidelines for nonstructural components. This review paper summarizes current knowledge on the seismic design and analysis of nonstructural building components, identifying major

Towards a Multi-Resolution Model of Seismic Risk in Central Asia. Challenge and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, M.; Wieland, M.; Bindi, D.; Parolai, S.

2011-12-01

Assessing seismic risk, defined as the probability of occurrence of economical and social losses as consequence of an earthquake, both at regional and at local scale is a challenging, multi-disciplinary task. In order to provide a reliable estimate, diverse information must be gathered by seismologists, geologists, engineers and civil authorities, and carefully integrated keeping into account the different levels of uncertainty. The research towards an integrated methodology, able to seamlessly describe seismic risk at different spatial scales is challenging, but discloses new application perspectives, particularly in those countries which suffer from a relevant seismic hazard but do not have resources for a standard assessment. Central Asian countries in particular, which exhibit one of the highest seismic hazard in the world, are experiencing a steady demographic growth, often accompanied by informal settlement and urban sprawling. A reliable evaluation of how these factors affect the seismic risk, together with a realistic assessment of the assets exposed to seismic hazard and their structural vulnerability is of particular importance, in order to undertake proper mitigation actions and to promptly and efficiently react to a catastrophic event. New strategies are needed to efficiently cope with systematic lack of information and uncertainties. An original approach is presented to assess seismic risk based on integration of information coming from remote-sensing and ground-based panoramic imaging, in situ measurements, expert knowledge and already available data. Efficient sampling strategies based on freely available medium-resolution multi-spectral satellite images are adopted to optimize data collection and validation, in a multi-scale approach. Panoramic imaging is also considered as a valuable ground-based visual data collection technique, suitable both for manual and automatic analysis. A full-probabilistic framework based on Bayes Network is proposed to

NV: Nessus Vulnerability Visualization for the Web

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harrison, Lane; Spahn, Riley B; Iannacone, Michael D

2012-01-01

Network vulnerability is a critical component of network se- curity. Yet vulnerability analysis has received relatively lit- tle attention from the security visualization community. In this paper we describe nv, a web-based Nessus vulnerability visualization. Nv utilizes treemaps and linked histograms to allow system administrators to discover, analyze, and man- age vulnerabilities on their networks. In addition to visual- izing single Nessus scans, nv supports the analysis of sequen- tial scans by showing which vulnerabilities have been fixed, remain open, or are newly discovered. Nv was also designed to operate completely in-browser, to avoid sending sensitive data to outside servers.more » We discuss the design of nv, as well as provide case studies demonstrating vulnerability analysis workflows which include a multiple-node testbed and data from the 2011 VAST Challenge.« less

Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

2015-12-01

The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

Retrieval of P wave Basin Response from Autocorrelation of Seismic Noise-Jakarta, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saygin, E.; Cummins, P. R.; Lumley, D. E.

2016-12-01

Indonesia's capital city, Jakarta, is home to a very large (over 10 million), vulnerable population and is proximate to known active faults, as well as to the subduction of Australian plate, which has a megathrust at abut 300 km distance, as well as intraslab seismicity extending to directly beneath the city. It is also located in a basin filled with a thick layer of unconsolidated and poorly consolidated sediment, which increases the seismic hazard the city is facing. Therefore, the information on the seismic velocity structure of the basin is crucial for increasing our knowledge of the seismic risk. We undertook a passive deployment of broadband seismographs throughout the city over a 3-month interval in 2013-2014, recording ambient seismic noise at over 90 sites for intervals of 1 month or more. Here we consider autocorrelations of the vertical component of the continuously recorded seismic wavefield across this dense network to image the shallow P wave velocity structure of Jakarta, Indonesia. Unlike the surface wave Green's functions used in ambient noise tomography, the vertical-component autocorrelograms are dominated by body wave energy that is potentially sensitive to sharp velocity contrasts, which makes them useful in seismic imaging. Results show autocorrelograms at different seismic stations with travel time variations that largely reflect changes in sediment thickness across the basin. We also confirm the validity our interpretation of the observed autocorrelation waveforms by conducting 2D finite difference full waveform numerical modeling for randomly distributed seismic sources to retrieve the reflection response through autocorrelation.

Regional Observation of Seismic Activity in Baekdu Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Geunyoung; Che, Il-Young; Shin, Jin-Soo; Chi, Heon-Cheol

2015-04-01

Seismic unrest in Baekdu Mountain area between North Korea and Northeast China region has called attention to geological research community in Northeast Asia due to her historical and cultural importance. Seismic bulletin shows level of seismic activity in the area is higher than that of Jilin Province of Northeast China. Local volcanic observation shows a symptom of magmatic unrest in period between 2002 and 2006. Regional seismic data have been used to analyze seismic activity of the area. The seismic activity could be differentiated from other seismic phenomena in the region by the analysis.

MSNoise: A framework for Continuous Seismic Noise Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecocq, Thomas; Caudron, Corentin; De Plaen, Raphaël; Mordret, Aurélien

2016-04-01

MSNoise is an Open and Free Python package known to be the only complete integrated workflow designed to analyse ambient seismic noise and study relative velocity changes (dv/v) in the crust. It is based on state of the art and well maintained Python modules, among which ObsPy plays an important role. To our knowledge, it is officially used for continuous monitoring at least in three notable places: the Observatory of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano (OVPF, France), the Auckland Volcanic Field (New Zealand) and on the South Napa earthquake (Berkeley, USA). It is also used by many researchers to process archive data to focus e.g. on fault zones, intraplate Europe, geothermal exploitations or Antarctica. We first present the general working of MSNoise, originally written in 2010 to automatically scan data archives and process seismic data in order to produce dv/v time series. We demonstrate that its modularity provides a new potential to easily test new algorithms for each processing step. For example, one could experiment new methods of cross-correlation (done by default in the frequency domain), stacking (default is linear stacking, averaging), or dv/v estimation (default is moving window cross-spectrum "MWCS", so-called "doublet"), etc. We present the last major evolution of MSNoise from a "single workflow: data archive to dv/v" to a framework system that allows plugins and modules to be developed and integrated into the MSNoise ecosystem. Small-scale plugins will be shown as examples, such as "continuous PPSD" (à la McNamarra & Buland) or "Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis" (Taisne, Caudron). We will also present the new MSNoise-TOMO package, using MSNoise as a "cross-correlation" toolbox and demystifying surface wave tomography ! Finally, the poster will be a meeting point for all those using or willing to use MSNoise, to meet the developer, exchange ideas and wishes !

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

Seismic data compression speeds exploration projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Galibert, P.Y.

As part of an ongoing commitment to ensure industry-wide distribution of its revolutionary seismic data compression technology, Chevron Petroleum Technology Co. (CPTC) has entered into licensing agreements with Compagnie Generale de Geophysique (CGG) and other seismic contractors for use of its software in oil and gas exploration programs. CPTC expects use of the technology to be far-reaching to all of its industry partners involved in seismic data collection, processing, analysis and storage. Here, CGG--one of the world`s leading seismic acquisition and processing companies--talks about its success in applying the new methodology to replace full on-board seismic processing. Chevron`s technology ismore » already being applied on large off-shore 3-D seismic surveys. Worldwide, CGG has acquired more than 80,000 km of seismic data using the data compression technology.« less

Co-seismic landslide topographic analysis based on multi-temporal DEM-A case study of the Wenchuan earthquake.

PubMed

Ren, Zhikun; Zhang, Zhuqi; Dai, Fuchu; Yin, Jinhui; Zhang, Huiping

2013-01-01

Hillslope instability has been thought to be one of the most important factors for landslide susceptibility. In this study, we apply geomorphic analysis using multi-temporal DEM data and shake intensity analysis to evaluate the topographic characteristics of the landslide areas. There are many geomorphologic analysis methods such as roughness, slope aspect, which are also as useful as slope analysis. The analyses indicate that most of the co-seismic landslides occurred in regions with roughness, hillslope and slope aspect of >1.2, >30, and between 90 and 270, respectively. However, the intersection regions from the above three methods are more accurate than that derived by applying single topographic analysis method. The ground motion data indicates that the co-seismic landslides mainly occurred on the hanging wall side of Longmen Shan Thrust Belt within the up-down and horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) contour of 150 PGA and 200 gal, respectively. The comparisons of pre- and post-earthquake DEM data indicate that the medium roughness and slope increased, the roughest and steepest regions decreased after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, slope aspects did not even change. Our results indicate that co-seismic landslides mainly occurred at specific regions of high roughness, southward and steep sloping areas under strong ground motion. Co-seismic landslides significantly modified the local topography, especially the hillslope and roughness. The roughest relief and steepest slope are significantly smoothed; however, the medium relief and slope become rougher and steeper, respectively.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Seismic investigation of the Kunlun Fault: Analysis of the INDEPTH IV 2-D active-source seismic dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seelig, William George

The Tibetan Plateau has experienced significant crustal thickening and deformation since the continental subduction and collision of the Asian and Indian plates in the Eocene. Deformation of the northern Tibetan Plateau is largely accommodated by strike-slip faulting. The Kunlun Fault is a 1000-km long strike-slip fault near the northern boundary of the Plateau that has experienced five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes in the past 100 years and represents a major rheological boundary. Active-source, 2-D seismic reflection/refraction data, collected as part of project INDEPTH IV (International Deep Profiling of Tibet and the Himalaya, phase IV) in 2007, was used to examine the structure and the dip of the Kunlun fault. The INDEPTH IV data was acquired to better understand the tectonic evolution of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, such as the far-field deformation associated with the continent-continent collision and the potential subduction of the Asian continent beneath northern Tibet. Seismic reflection common depth point (CDP) stacks were examined to look for reflectivity patterns that may be associated with faulting. A possible reflection from the buried North Kunlun Thrust (NKT) is identified at 18-21 km underneath the East Kunlun Mountains, with an estimated apparent dip of 15°S and thrusting to the north. Minimally-processed shot gathers were also inspected for reflections off near-vertical structures such as faults and information on first-order velocity structure. Shot offset and nearest receiver number to reflection was catalogued to increase confidence of picks. Reflections off the North Kunlun (NKF) and South Kunlun Faults (SKF) were identified and analyzed for apparent dip and subsurface geometry. Fault reflection analysis found that the North Kunlun Fault had an apparent dip of approximately 68ºS to an estimated depth of 5 km, while the South Kunlun Fault dipped at approximately 78ºN to an estimated 3.5 km depth. Constraints on apparent dip and

Polarization Analysis of Ambient Seismic Noise Green's Functions for Monitoring Glacial State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, B.; Horgan, H. J.; Levy, R. H.; Bertler, N. A. N.

2017-12-01

Analysis of continuously recorded background seismic noise has emerged as a powerful technique to monitor changes within the Earth. In a process analogous to Einstein's 'Brownian motion', seismic energy enters the Earth through a variety of mechanisms and then is dissipated through scattering processes or through a semi-random distribution of sources. Eventually, in stratified media, some of this energy assembles itself in coherent packets and propagates as seismic surface waves. Through careful analysis of these waves as recorded by two seismic stations over a short period of time, we can reconstruct Empirical Green's Functions (EGF). EGF are sensitive to the material through which the waves are travelling between the two stations. They can thus provide 4D estimates of material properties such as seismic velocity and anisotropy. We specifically analyze both the bulk velocity and the complex phase of these EGF to look for subtle changes in velocity with direction of propagation as well as the nature of particle polarization and ellipticity. These characteristics can then be used as a proxy for contemporaneous stress and strain or 'inherited' strain. Similar approaches have proven successful in mapping stresses and strain in the crust, on plate interface faults, volcanoes, and on glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet. We will present results from applying this approach to continuous broadband data recorded on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet through the Polenet project. Our results suggest that we can reconstruct EGF at least between frequencies of 300mHz and 50mHz for time periods, providing information about the contemporary state of ice and underlying lithosphere on a seasonal or annual basis. Our primary goals are determining glacial state by linking wave propagation to material fabric on micro (crystal orientation) and macro (strain marker) scales and well as rebound processes in the lithosphere during glacial loading and unloading. We will present our current

Seismic risk assessment of architectural heritages in Gyeongju considering local site effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, H.-J.; Kim, D.-S.; Kim, D.-M.

2013-02-01

A seismic risk assessment is conducted for cultural heritage sites in Gyeongju, the capital of Korea's ancient Silla Kingdom. Gyeongju, home to UNESCO World Heritage sites, contains remarkable artifacts of Korean Buddhist art. An extensive geotechnical survey including a series of in situ tests is presented, providing pertinent soil profiles for site response analyses on thirty cultural heritage sites. After the shear wave velocity profiles and dynamic material properties were obtained, site response analyses were carried out at each historical site and the amplification characteristics, site period, and response spectrum of the site were determined for the earthquake levels of 2400 yr and 1000 yr return periods based on the Korean seismic hazard map. Response spectrum and corresponding site coefficients obtained from site response analyses considering geologic conditions differ significantly from the current Korean seismic code. This study confirms the importance of site-specific ground response analyses considering local geological conditions. Results are given in the form of the spatial distribution of bedrock depth, site period, and site amplification coefficients, which are particularly valuable in the context of a seismic vulnerability study. This study presents the potential amplification of hazard maps and provides primary data on the seismic risk assessment of each cultural heritage.

An analysis of seismic hazard in the Upper Rhine Graben enlightened by the example of the New Madrid seismic zone.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doubre, Cécile; Masson, Frédéric; Mazzotti, Stéphane; Meghraoui, Mustapha

2014-05-01

Seismic hazard in the "stable" continental regions and low-level deformation zones is one of the most difficult issues to address in Earth sciences. In these zones, instrumental and historical seismicity are not well known (sparse seismic networks, seismic cycle too long to be covered by the human history, episodic seismic activity) and many active structures remain poorly characterized or unknown. This is the case of the Upper Rhine Graben, the central segment of the European Cenozoic rift system (ECRIS) of Oligocene age, which extends from the North Sea through Germany and France to the Mediterranean coast over a distance of some 1100 km. Even if this region has already experienced some destructive earthquakes, its present-day seismicity is moderate and the deformation observed by geodesy is very small (below the current measurement accuracy). The strain rate does not exceed 10-10 and paleoseismic studies indicate an average return period of 2.5 to 3 103 ka for large earthquakes. The largest earthquake known for this zone is the 1356 Basel earthquake, with a magnitude generally estimated about 6.5 (Meghraoui et al., 2001) but recently re-evaluated between 6.7 and 7.1 (Fäh et al et al., 2009). A comparison of the Upper Rhine Graben with equivalent regions around the world could help improve our evaluation of seismic hazard of this region. This is the case of the New Madrid seismic zone, one of the best studied intraplate system in central USA, which experienced an M 7.0 - 7.5 earthquake in 1811-1812 and shares several characteristics with the Upper Rhine Graben, i.e. the general framework of inherited geological structures (reactivation of a failed rift / graben), seismicity patterns (spatial variability of small and large earthquakes), the null or low rate of deformation, and the location in a "stable" continental interior. Looking at the Upper Rhine Graben as an analogue of the New Madrid seismic zone, we can re-evaluate its seismic hazard and consider the

Ischia Island: Historical Seismicity and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlino, S.; Cubellis, E.; Iannuzzi, R.; Luongo, G.; Obrizzo, F.

2003-04-01

The seismic energy release in volcanic areas is a complex process and the island of Ischia provides a significant scenario of historical seismicity. This is characterized by the occurence of earthquakes with low energy and high intensity. Information on the seismicity of the island spans about eight centuries, starting from 1228. With regard to effects, the most recent earthquake of 1883 is extensively documented both in the literature and unpublished sources. The earthquake caused 2333 deaths and the destruction of the historical and environmental heritage of some areas of the island. The most severe damage occurred in Casamicciola. This event, which was the first great catastrophe after the unification of Italy in the 1860s (Imax = XI degree MCS), represents an important date in the prevention of natural disasters, in that it was after this earthquake that the first Seismic Safety Act in Italy was passed by which lower risk zones were identified for new settlements. Thanks to such detailed analysis, reliable modelling of the seismic source was also obtained. The historical data onwards makes it possible to identify the area of the epicenter of all known earthquakes as the northern slope of Monte Epomeo, while analysis of the effects of earthquakes and the geological structures allows us to evaluate the stress fields that generate the earthquakes. In a volcanic area, interpretation of the mechanisms of release and propagation of seismic energy is made even more complex as the stress field that acts at a regional level is compounded by that generated from migration of magmatic masses towards the surface, as well as the rheologic properties of the rocks dependent on the high geothermic gradient. Such structural and dynamic conditions make the island of Ischia a seismic area of considerable interest. It would appear necessary to evaluate the expected damage caused by a new event linked to the renewal of dynamics of the island, where high population density and the

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Luchuan

2015-04-01

A Global Sensitivity Analysis Method on Maximum Tsunami Wave Heights to Potential Seismic Source Parameters Luchuan Ren, Jianwei Tian, Mingli Hong Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe, Heibei Province, 065201, P.R. China It is obvious that the uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights in offshore area are partly from uncertainties of the potential seismic tsunami source parameters. A global sensitivity analysis method on the maximum tsunami wave heights to the potential seismic source parameters is put forward in this paper. The tsunami wave heights are calculated by COMCOT ( the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model), on the assumption that an earthquake with magnitude MW8.0 occurred at the northern fault segment along the Manila Trench and triggered a tsunami in the South China Sea. We select the simulated results of maximum tsunami wave heights at specific sites in offshore area to verify the validity of the method proposed in this paper. For ranking importance order of the uncertainties of potential seismic source parameters (the earthquake's magnitude, the focal depth, the strike angle, dip angle and slip angle etc..) in generating uncertainties of the maximum tsunami wave heights, we chose Morris method to analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to the aforementioned parameters, and give several qualitative descriptions of nonlinear or linear effects of them on the maximum tsunami wave heights. We quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of the maximum tsunami wave heights to these parameters and the interaction effects among these parameters on the maximum tsunami wave heights by means of the extended FAST method afterward. The results shows that the maximum tsunami wave heights are very sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, followed successively by the epicenter location, the strike angle and dip angle, the interactions effect between the sensitive parameters are very obvious at specific site in offshore area, and there

Shakedown Analysis of Composite Steel-Concrete Frame Systems with Plastic and Brittle Elements Under Seismic Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alawdin, Piotr; Bulanov, George

2017-06-01

In this paper the earthquake analysis of composite steel-concrete frames is performed by finding solution of the optimization problem of shakedown analysis, which takes into account the nonlinear properties of materials. The constructions are equipped with systems bearing structures of various elastic-plastic and brittle elements absorbing energy of seismic actions. A mathematical model of this problem is presented on the base of limit analysis theory with partial redistribution of self-stressed internal forces. It is assumed that the load varies randomly within the specified limits. These limits are determined by the possible direction and magnitude of seismic loads. The illustrative example of such analysis of system is introduced. Some attention has been paid to the practical application of the proposed mathematical model.

Surface-Source Downhole Seismic Analysis in R

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Eric M.

2007-01-01

This report discusses a method for interpreting a layered slowness or velocity model from surface-source downhole seismic data originally presented by Boore (2003). I have implemented this method in the statistical computing language R (R Development Core Team, 2007), so that it is freely and easily available to researchers and practitioners that may find it useful. I originally applied an early version of these routines to seismic cone penetration test data (SCPT) to analyze the horizontal variability of shear-wave velocity within the sediments in the San Francisco Bay area (Thompson et al., 2006). A more recent version of these codes was used to analyze the influence of interface-selection and model assumptions on velocity/slowness estimates and the resulting differences in site amplification (Boore and Thompson, 2007). The R environment has many benefits for scientific and statistical computation; I have chosen R to disseminate these routines because it is versatile enough to program specialized routines, is highly interactive which aids in the analysis of data, and is freely and conveniently available to install on a wide variety of computer platforms. These scripts are useful for the interpretation of layered velocity models from surface-source downhole seismic data such as deep boreholes and SCPT data. The inputs are the travel-time data and the offset of the source at the surface. The travel-time arrivals for the P- and S-waves must already be picked from the original data. An option in the inversion is to include estimates of the standard deviation of the travel-time picks for a weighted inversion of the velocity profile. The standard deviation of each travel-time pick is defined relative to the standard deviation of the best pick in a profile and is based on the accuracy with which the travel-time measurement could be determined from the seismogram. The analysis of the travel-time data consists of two parts: the identification of layer-interfaces, and the

Application of crowd-sourced data to multi-scale evolutionary exposure and vulnerability models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano

2016-04-01

Seismic exposure, defined as the assets (population, buildings, infrastructure) exposed to earthquake hazard and susceptible to damage, is a critical -but often neglected- component of seismic risk assessment. This partly stems from the burden associated with the compilation of a useful and reliable model over wide spatial areas. While detailed engineering data have still to be collected in order to constrain exposure and vulnerability models, the availability of increasingly large crowd-sourced datasets (e. g. OpenStreetMap) opens up the exciting possibility to generate incrementally evolving models. Integrating crowd-sourced and authoritative data using statistical learning methodologies can reduce models uncertainties and also provide additional drive and motivation to volunteered geoinformation collection. A case study in Central Asia will be presented and discussed.

Introspection on improper seismic retrofit of Basilica Santa Maria di Collemaggio after 2009 Italian earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimellaro, Gian Paolo; Reinhorn, Andrei M.; de Stefano, Alessandro

2011-03-01

The 2009 L'Aquila, Italy earthquake highlighted the seismic vulnerability of historic masonry building structures due to improper "strengthening" retrofit work that has been done in the last 50 years. Italian seismic standards recommend the use of traditional reinforcement techniques such as replacing the original wooden roof structure with new reinforced concrete (RC) or steel elements, inserting RC tie-beams in the masonry and new RC floors, and using RC jacketing on the shear walls. The L'Aquila earthquake revealed the numerous limitations of these interventions, because they led to increased seismic forces (due to greater additional weight) and to deformation incompatibilities of the incorporated elements with the existing masonry walls. This paper provides a discussion of technical issues pertaining to the seismic retrofit of the Santa Maria di Collemaggio Basilica and in particular, the limitations of the last (2000) retrofit intervention. Considerable damage was caused to the church because of questionable actions and incorrect and improper technical choices.

A graph-based network-vulnerability analysis system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swiler, L.P.; Phillips, C.; Gaylor, T.

1998-05-03

This paper presents a graph based approach to network vulnerability analysis. The method is flexible, allowing analysis of attacks from both outside and inside the network. It can analyze risks to a specific network asset, or examine the universe of possible consequences following a successful attack. The analysis system requires as input a database of common attacks, broken into atomic steps, specific network configuration and topology information, and an attacker profile. The attack information is matched with the network configuration information and an attacker profile to create a superset attack graph. Nodes identify a stage of attack, for example themore » class of machines the attacker has accessed and the user privilege level he or she has compromised. The arcs in the attack graph represent attacks or stages of attacks. By assigning probabilities of success on the arcs or costs representing level of effort for the attacker, various graph algorithms such as shortest path algorithms can identify the attack paths with the highest probability of success.« less

A graph-based network-vulnerability analysis system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swiler, L.P.; Phillips, C.; Gaylor, T.

1998-01-01

This report presents a graph-based approach to network vulnerability analysis. The method is flexible, allowing analysis of attacks from both outside and inside the network. It can analyze risks to a specific network asset, or examine the universe of possible consequences following a successful attack. The analysis system requires as input a database of common attacks, broken into atomic steps, specific network configuration and topology information, and an attacker profile. The attack information is matched with the network configuration information and an attacker profile to create a superset attack graph. Nodes identify a stage of attack, for example the classmore » of machines the attacker has accessed and the user privilege level he or she has compromised. The arcs in the attack graph represent attacks or stages of attacks. By assigning probabilities of success on the arcs or costs representing level-of-effort for the attacker, various graph algorithms such as shortest-path algorithms can identify the attack paths with the highest probability of success.« less

A Gis Model Application Supporting The Analysis of The Seismic Hazard For The Urban Area of Catania (italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.

After the Summit held in Washington on August 20-22 2001 to plan the first World Conference on the mitigation of Natural Hazards, a Group for the analysis of Natural Hazards within the Mediterranean area has been formed. The Group has so far determined the following hazards: (1) Seismic hazard (hazard for historical buildings included); (2) Hazard linked to the quantity and quality of water; (3) Landslide hazard; (4) Volcanic hazard. The analysis of such hazards implies the creation and the management of data banks, which can only be used if the data are properly geo-settled to allow a crossed use of them. The obtained results must be therefore represented on geo-settled maps. The present study is part of a research programme, namely "Detailed Scenarios and Actions for Seismic Prevention of Damage in the Urban Area of Catania", financed by the National Department for the Civil Protection and the National Research Council-National Group for the Defence Against Earthquakes (CNR-GNDT). Nowadays the south-eastern area of Sicily, called the "Iblea" seismic area of Sicily, is considered as one of the most intense seismic zones in Italy, based on the past and current seismic history and on the typology of civil buildings. Safety against earthquake hazards has two as pects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena such as amplification, land sliding and soil liquefaction. So the correct evaluation of seismic hazard is highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. The effect of local geotechnical conditions on damages suffered by buildings under seismic conditions has been widely recognized, as it is demonstrated by the Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards edited by the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (TC4, 1999). The evaluation of local amplification effects may be carried out by means of either

Global Vulnerability Assessment in Santa María Tixmadeje, Estado de México, México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monroy Salazar, S.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2010-12-01

Santa María Tixmadejé (SMT), Estado de México, Mexico is a town located very close to the Acambay-Tixmadejé fault. This fault is located in the middle of the Trans Volcanic Belt in the center of the Mexican territory and generated a large seismic event in 1912 with magnitude 6.9 which combined with the local vulnerability, caused a disaster. In this work we measure the different vulnerabilities of the SMT community: structural, economical, social and educational. In addition, we determinate the total vulnerability, by summing all estimated vulnerabilities, for the critical facilities identified in this town. Vulnerability was determined using the methodology proposed by National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and by Disaster Prevention National Center (CENAPRED). Besides, we considered a minimum sample statistically significant of the total houses with a random sampling for our survey. Our results indicate that 50% of the critical facilities have high and very high and the other 50% between low and moderate level of total vulnerability. The results for independent vulnerabilities are as follows: (1) Near to 75% of the community has high and very high level of social vulnerability and the range for the another 25% is between low and moderate; (2) About 43% of the community has high and very high economical vulnerability and 57% low and moderate; (3) Approximately 38% of the population has high and very high educational vulnerability. The 62% present low and moderate vulnerability; and (4) About 42% of the community has very high structural vulnerability and 58% between low and moderate.

High-Resolution Analysis of Seismicity Induced at Berlín Geothermal Field, El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatek, G.; Bulut, F.; Dresen, G. H.; Bohnhoff, M.

2012-12-01

We investigate induced microseismic activity monitored at Berlín Geothermal Field, El Salvador, during a hydraulic stimulation. The site was monitored for a time period of 17 months using thirteen 3-component seismic stations located in shallow boreholes. Three stimulations were performed in the well TR8A with a maximum injection rate and well head pressure of 160l/s and 130bar, respectively. For the entire time period of our analysis, the acquisition system recorded 581 events with moment magnitudes ranging between -0.5 and 3.7. The initial seismic catalog provided by the operator was substantially improved: 1) We re-picked P- and S-wave onsets and relocated the seismic events using the double-difference relocation algorithm based on cross-correlation derived differential arrival time data. Forward modeling was performed using a local 1D velocity model instead of homogeneous full-space. 2) We recalculated source parameters using the spectral fitting method and refined the results applying the spectral ratio method. We investigated the source parameters and spatial and temporal changes of the seismic activity based on the refined dataset and studied the correlation between seismic activity and production. The achieved hypocentral precision allowed resolving the spatiotemporal changes in seismic activity down to a scale of a few meters. The application of spectral ratio method significantly improved the quality of source parameters in a high-attenuating and complex geological environment. Of special interest is the largest event (Mw3.7) and its nucleation process. We investigate whether the refined seismic data display any signatures that the largest event is triggered by the shut-in of the well. We found seismic activity displaying clear spatial and temporal patterns that could be easily related to the amount of water injected into the well TR8A and other reinjection wells in the investigated area. The migration of seismicity outside of injection point is observed

An under-designed RC frame: Seismic assessment through displacement based approach and possible refurbishment with FRP strips and RC jacketing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valente, Marco; Milani, Gabriele

2017-07-01

Many existing reinforced concrete buildings in Southern Europe were built (and hence designed) before the introduction of displacement based design in national seismic codes. They are obviously highly vulnerable to seismic actions. In such a situation, simplified methodologies for the seismic assessment and retrofitting of existing structures are required. In this study, a displacement based procedure using non-linear static analyses is applied to a four-story existing RC frame. The aim is to obtain an estimation of its overall structural inadequacy as well as the effectiveness of a specific retrofitting intervention by means of GFRP laminates and RC jacketing. Accurate numerical models are developed within a displacement based approach to reproduce the seismic response of the RC frame in the original configuration and after strengthening.

Lunar seismicity and tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lammlein, D. R.

1977-01-01

Results are presented for an analysis of all moonquake data obtained by the Apollo seismic stations during the period from November 1969 to May 1974 and a preliminary analysis of critical data obtained in the interval from May 1974 to May 1975. More accurate locations are found for previously located moonquakes, and additional sources are located. Consideration is given to the sources of natural seismic signals, lunar seismic activity, moonquake periodicities, tidal periodicities in moonquake activity, hypocentral locations and occurrence characteristics of deep and shallow moonquakes, lunar tidal control over moonquakes, lunar tectonism, the locations of moonquake belts, and the dynamics of the lunar interior. It is concluded that: (1) moonquakes are distributed in several major belts of global extent that coincide with regions of the youngest and most intense volcanic and tectonic activity; (2) lunar tides control both the small quakes occurring at great depth and the larger quakes occurring near the surface; (3) the moon has a much thicker lithosphere than earth; (4) a single tectonic mechanism may account for all lunar seismic activity; and (5) lunar tidal stresses are an efficient triggering mechanism for moonquakes.

InSAR Analysis of Post-Seismic Deformation Following the 2013 Mw 7.7 Balochistan, Pakistan Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, K.; Barnhart, W. D.

2017-12-01

On September 24th, 2013, a Mw 7.7 earthquake ruptured a 200 km portion of the Hoshab fault, a reverse fault in the Makran accretionary prism of southern Pakistan. This earthquake is notable because it ruptured a reverse fault with a predominantly strike-slip sense of displacement, and it ruptured a mechanically weak accretionary prism. Here, we present initial analysis of ongoing post-seismic deformation imaged with the Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) mission with the goals of a) determining the dominant post-seismic deformation processes active, b) characterizing the rigidity and rheological structure of a flat-slab subduction zone, and c) elucidating whether post-seismic deformation may account for or exacerbate the 4-6 m fault convergence deficit left by the 2013 earthquake. We first present InSAR time series analysis of the post-seismic transient derived from ongoing Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions, including a comparison of atmosphere-corrected and uncorrected time series. Interferograms spanning December 2014 to the present reveal an ongoing post-seismic deformation transient in the region surrounding the Hoshab fault. Additionally, fault creep signals on and adjacent to the Hoshab fault are present. Second, we present a suite of forward models that explore the potential contributions of viscoelastic relaxation and frictional afterslip to the recorded displacement signal. These models, conducted using the semi-analytical solutions of RELAX and compared to InSAR line-of-sight time series displacements, explore a range of candidate rheological descriptions of the Makran subduction zone that are designed to probe the rheological structure of a region where current knowledge of the subsurface geology is highly limited. Our preliminary results suggest that post-seismic displacements arise from a combination of viscoelastic deformation and frictional afterslip, as opposed to one single mechanism. Additionally, our preliminary results suggest

Effect of Ground Motion Characteristics on the Seismic Response of a Monumental Concrete Arch Bridge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caglayan, B. Ozden; Ozakgul, Kadir; Tezer, Ovunc

2008-07-08

Railway network in Turkey dates back to more than a hundred years ago and according to official records, there are approximately 18,000 railway bridges with spans varying between 50 cm up to 150 meters. One of them is a monumental concrete arch bridge with a total length of 210 meters having three major spans of 30 meters and a height of 65 meters, located in an earthquake-prone region in southern part of the country. Three-dimensional finite element model of the bridge was generated using a commercially available general finite element analysis software and based on the outcomes of a seriesmore » of in-depth acceleration measurements that were conducted on-site, the model was refined. Types of ground motion records were used to investigate the seismic response and vulnerability of this massive structure in order to provide information regarding (i) damage-susceptible regions of the structure for monitoring purposes, and, (ii) seismic loads to be taken into account during evaluation and possible strengthening phases for this type of structures.« less

Two types of seismicity accompanying hydraulic fracturing in Harrison County, Ohio - implications for seismic hazard and seismogenic mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlowska, M.; Brudzinski, M.; Friberg, P. A.; Skoumal, R.; Baxter, N. D.; Currie, B.

2017-12-01

While induced seismicity in the United States has mainly been attributed to wastewater disposal, Eastern Ohio has provided cases of seismicity induced by both hydraulic fracturing (HF) and wastewater disposal. In this study, we investigate five cases of seismicity associated with HF in Harrison County, OH. Because of their temporal and spatial isolation from other injection activities, this provide an ideal setting for studying the relationships between high pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis reveals two distinct groups of seismicity. Deeper earthquakes occur in the Precambrian crystalline basement, reach larger magnitudes (M>2), have lower b-values (<1), and continue for weeks following stimulation shut down. Shallower earthquakes, on the other hand, occur in Paleozoic sedimentary rocks 400 m below HF, are limited to smaller magnitudes (M<1), have higher b-values (>1.5), and lack post-stimulation activity. We seek the physical explanation of observed difference in earthquakes character and hypothesize that the maturity of faults is the main factor determining sequences b-values. Based on published results of laboratory experiments and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in the older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in the younger, lower viscosity sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing seismicity on deeper, more mature faults poses higher seismic hazards. The analysis of water and gas production data from these wells suggests that wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity. This indicates more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target reservoir, which may explain why gas production drops more quickly for wells with deeper seismicity. Despite these indications that hydraulic pressure fluctuations induce seismicity, we also find only 2-3 hours between onset of stimulation of HF wells and seismicity that is

LANL seismic screening method for existing buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickson, S.L.; Feller, K.C.; Fritz de la Orta, G.O.

1997-01-01

The purpose of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Seismic Screening Method is to provide a comprehensive, rational, and inexpensive method for evaluating the relative seismic integrity of a large building inventory using substantial life-safety as the minimum goal. The substantial life-safety goal is deemed to be satisfied if the extent of structural damage or nonstructural component damage does not pose a significant risk to human life. The screening is limited to Performance Category (PC) -0, -1, and -2 buildings and structures. Because of their higher performance objectives, PC-3 and PC-4 buildings automatically fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method andmore » will be subject to a more detailed seismic analysis. The Laboratory has also designated that PC-0, PC-1, and PC-2 unreinforced masonry bearing wall and masonry infill shear wall buildings fail the LANL Seismic Screening Method because of their historically poor seismic performance or complex behavior. These building types are also recommended for a more detailed seismic analysis. The results of the LANL Seismic Screening Method are expressed in terms of separate scores for potential configuration or physical hazards (Phase One) and calculated capacity/demand ratios (Phase Two). This two-phase method allows the user to quickly identify buildings that have adequate seismic characteristics and structural capacity and screen them out from further evaluation. The resulting scores also provide a ranking of those buildings found to be inadequate. Thus, buildings not passing the screening can be rationally prioritized for further evaluation. For the purpose of complying with Executive Order 12941, the buildings failing the LANL Seismic Screening Method are deemed to have seismic deficiencies, and cost estimates for mitigation must be prepared. Mitigation techniques and cost-estimate guidelines are not included in the LANL Seismic Screening Method.« less

Upper mantle seismic anisotropy beneath Northern Peru from shear wave splitting analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franca, G. S.; Condori, C.; Tavera, H.; Eakin, C. M.; Beck, S. L.

2017-12-01

Beneath much of Peru lies the largest region of flat-slab subduction in the world today. The origins and dynamics of the Peruvian flat-slab however remain elusive, particularly in the north away from the Nazca Ridge. Studies of seismic anisotropy can potentially provide us with insight into the dynamics of recent and past deformational processes in the upper mantle. In this study, we conduct shear wave splitting to investigate seismic anisotropy across the northern extent of the Peruvian flat-slab for the first time. For the analysis, we used arrivals of SKS, SKKS and PKS phases from teleseismic events (88° > Δ < 150°) recorded at 30 broadband seismic stations from the Peruvian permanent and portable seismic networks, and international networks (CTBTO and RSBR-Brazil). The preliminary results reveal a complex anisotropy pattern with variations along strike. In the northernmost region, the average delay times range between 1.0 s and 1.2 s, with fast directions predominantly ENE-WSW oriented in a direction approximately perpendicular to the trench, parallel with subduction of the Nazca plate. Meanwhile towards the central region of Peru, the predominant fast direction changes to SE-NW oblique with the trench, but consistent with the pattern seen previously over the southern extent of the flat-slab by Eakin et al. (2013, 2015). These characteristics suggest a fundamental difference between the anisotropic structures, and therefore underlying mantle processes, beneath the northern and central portions of the Peruvian flat-slab.

Geo-ethical dimension of community's safety: rural and urban population vulnerability analysis methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyuchenko, Yuriy; Movchan, Dmytro; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Yuschenko, Maxim

2016-04-01

Modern world based on relations more than on causalities, so communicative, socio-economic, and socio-cultural issues are important to understand nature of risks and to make correct, ethical decisions. Today major part of risk analysts declared new nature of modern risks. We faced coherent or systemic risks, realization of which leads to domino effect, unexpected growing of losses and fatalities. This type of risks originated by complicated nature of heterogeneous environment, close interconnection of engineering networks, and changing structure of society. Heterogeneous multi-agent environment generates systemic risks, which requires analyze multi-source data with sophisticated tools. Formal basis for analysis of this type of risks is developed during last 5-7 years. But issues of social fairness, ethics, and education require further development. One aspect of analysis of social issues of risk management is studied in this paper. Formal algorithm for quantitative analysis of multi-source data analysis is proposed. As it was demonstrated, using proposed methodological base and the algorithm, it is possible to obtain regularized spatial-temporal distribution of investigated parameters over whole observation period with rectified reliability and controlled uncertainty. The result of disaster data analysis demonstrates that about half of direct disaster damage might be caused by social factors: education, experience and social behaviour. Using data presented also possible to estimate quantitative parameters of the losses distributions: a relation between education, age, experience, and losses; as well as vulnerability (in terms of probable damage) toward financial status in current social density. It is demonstrated that on wide-scale range an education determines risk perception and so vulnerability of societies. But on the local level there are important heterogeneities. Land-use and urbanization structure influencing to vulnerability essentially. The way to

Discrimination of porosity and fluid saturation using seismic velocity analysis

DOEpatents

Berryman, James G.

2001-01-01

The method of the invention is employed for determining the state of saturation in a subterranean formation using only seismic velocity measurements (e.g., shear and compressional wave velocity data). Seismic velocity data collected from a region of the formation of like solid material properties can provide relatively accurate partial saturation data derived from a well-defined triangle plotted in a (.rho./.mu., .lambda./.mu.)-plane. When the seismic velocity data are collected over a large region of a formation having both like and unlike materials, the method first distinguishes the like materials by initially plotting the seismic velocity data in a (.rho./.lambda., .mu./.lambda.)-plane to determine regions of the formation having like solid material properties and porosity.

Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

2015-03-01

magnitudes which, according to USLE, corresponded to the probability of exceedance 1% and 10% during 50 years or, if the reliable estimate is absent, the maximal magnitudes reported during the instrumental period. As a result, the seismic hazard maps for the Himalayas and the adjacent regions in terms of standard seismic zoning were constructed. Based on these calculations, in order to exemplify the method, we present a series of seismic risk maps taking into account the population density prone to seismic hazard and the dependence of the risk on the vulnerability as a function of population density.

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment for Montreal -An Application of HAZUS-MH4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Keyan

2011-12-01

Seismic loss estimation for Montreal, Canada is performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic hazard using the HAZUS-MH4 tool developed by US Federal Emergency Management. The software is manipulated to accept a Canadian setting for the Montreal study region, which includes 522 census tracts. The accuracy of loss estimations using HAZUS is dependent on the quality and quantity of data collection and preparation. The data collected for Montreal study region comprise: (1) the building inventory (2) hazard maps regarding soil amplification, liquefaction, and landslides (3) population distribution at three different times of the day (4) census demographic information and (5) synthetic ground motion contour maps using three different ground motion prediction equations. All these data are prepared and assembled into geodatabases that are compatible with the HAZUS software. The study estimated that roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for a scenario corresponding to the 2% in 50 years scenario. The maximum number of casualties associated with this scenario corresponds to a time of occurrence of 2pm and would result in approximately 500 people being injured. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggests that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. The next steps in the study should be to increase the size of the survey area to the Greater Montreal which includes more than 3 million inhabitants and to perform more targeted studies for critical areas such as downtown Montreal, and the south-eastern tip of Montreal. The current study was performed mainly for the built environment; the next phase will need to

Tsallis non-additive entropy and natural time analysis of seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarlis, N. V.; Skordas, E. S.; Varotsos, P.

2017-12-01

Within the context of Tsallis non-additive entropy [1] statistical mechanics -in the frame of which kappa distributions arise [2,3]- a derivation of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law of seismicity has been proposed [4,5]. Such an analysis leads to a generalized GR law [6,7] which is applied here to the earthquakes in Japan and California. These seismic data are also studied in natural time [6] revealing that although some properties of seismicity may be recovered by the non-additive entropy approach, temporal correlations between successive earthquake magnitudes should be also taken into account [6,8]. The importance of such correlations is strengthened by the observation of periods of long range correlated earthquake magnitude time series [9] a few months before all earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 or larger in the entire Japanese area from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the day of the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake) almost simultaneously with characteristic order parameter variations of seismicity [10]. These variations appear approximately when low frequency abnormal changes of the electric and magnetic field of the Earth (less than around 1Hz) are recorded [11] before strong earthquakes as the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan in 2011 [12]. 1. C Tsallis, J Stat Phys 52 (1988) 479 2. G Livadiotis, and D J McComas, J Geophys Res 114 (2009) A11105 3. G Livadiotis, Kappa Distributions. (Elsevier, Amsterdam) 2017. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-804638-8.01001-9 4. O Sotolongo-Costa, A Posadas, Phys Rev Lett 92 (2004) 048501 5. R Silva, G França, C Vilar, J Alcaniz, Phys Rev E 73 (2006) 026102 6. N Sarlis, E Skordas, P Varotsos, Phys Rev E 82 (2010) 021110 7. L Telesca, Bull Seismol Soc Am 102 (2012) 886-891 8. P Varotsos, N Sarlis, E Skordas, Natural Time Analysis: The new view of time. (Springer, Berlin) 2011. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-16449-1 9. P Varotsos, N Sarlis, E Skordas, J Geophys Res Space Physics 119 (2014) 9192. 10. N Sarlis, E Skordas, P Varotsos, T

Data Analysis of Seismic Sequence in Central Italy in 2016 using CTBTO- International Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mumladze, Tea; Wang, Haijun; Graham, Gerhard

2017-04-01

The seismic network that forms the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-test-ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) will ultimately consist of 170 seismic stations (50 primary and 120 auxiliary) in 76 countries around the world. The Network is still under the development, but currently more than 80% of the network is in operation. The objective of seismic monitoring is to detect and locate underground nuclear explosions. However, the data from the IMS also can be widely used for scientific and civil purposes. In this study we present the results of data analysis of the seismic sequence in 2016 in Central Italy. Several hundred earthquakes were recorded for this sequence by the seismic stations of the IMS. All events were accurately located the analysts of the International Data Centre (IDC) of the CTBTO. In this study we will present the epicentral and magnitude distribution, station recordings and teleseismic phases as obtained from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB). We will also present a comparison of the database of the IDC with the databases of the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Present work shows that IMS data can be used for earthquake sequence analyses and can play an important role in seismological research.

Structure of the Suasselkä postglacial fault in northern Finland obtained by analysis of local events and ambient seismic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afonin, Nikita; Kozlovskaya, Elena; Kukkonen, Ilmo; Dafne/Finland Working Group

2017-04-01

Understanding the inner structure of seismogenic faults and their ability to reactivate is particularly important in investigating the continental intraplate seismicity regime. In our study we address this problem using analysis of local seismic events and ambient seismic noise recorded by the temporary DAFNE array in the northern Fennoscandian Shield. The main purpose of the DAFNE/FINLAND passive seismic array experiment was to characterize the present-day seismicity of the Suasselkä postglacial fault (SPGF), which was proposed as one potential target for the DAFNE (Drilling Active Faults in Northern Europe) project. The DAFNE/FINLAND array comprised an area of about 20 to 100 km and consisted of eight short-period and four broadband three-component autonomous seismic stations installed in the close vicinity of the fault area. The array recorded continuous seismic data during September 2011-May 2013. Recordings of the array have being analysed in order to identify and locate natural earthquakes from the fault area and to discriminate them from the blasts in the Kittilä gold mine. As a result, we found a number of natural seismic events originating from the fault area, which proves that the fault is still seismically active. In order to study the inner structure of the SPGF we use cross-correlation of ambient seismic noise recorded by the array. Analysis of azimuthal distribution of noise sources demonstrated that during the time interval under consideration the distribution of noise sources is close to the uniform one. The continuous data were processed in several steps including single-station data analysis, instrument response removal and time-domain stacking. The data were used to estimate empirical Green's functions between pairs of stations in the frequency band of 0.1-1 Hz and to calculate corresponding surface wave dispersion curves. The S-wave velocity models were obtained as a result of dispersion curve inversion. The results suggest that the area of

Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Barbosa, P.; Garrote, L.; Iglesias, A.; Vogt, J.

2014-05-01

We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were

Nonlinear transient survival level seismic finite element analysis of Magellan ground based telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griebel, Matt; Buleri, Christine; Baylor, Andrew; Gunnels, Steve; Hull, Charlie; Palunas, Povilas; Phillips, Mark

2016-07-01

The Magellan Telescopes are a set of twin 6.5 meter ground based optical/near-IR telescopes operated by the Carnegie Institution for Science at the Las Campanas Observatory (LCO) in Chile. The primary mirrors are f/1.25 paraboloids made of borosilicate glass and a honeycomb structure. The secondary mirror provides both f/11 and f/5 focal lengths with two Nasmyth, three auxiliary, and a Cassegrain port on the optical support structure (OSS). The telescopes have been in operation since 2000 and have experienced several small earthquakes with no damage. Measurement of in situ response of the telescopes to seismic events showed significant dynamic amplification, however, the response of the telescopes to a survival level earthquake, including component level forces, displacements, accelerations, and stresses were unknown. The telescopes are supported with hydrostatic bearings that can lift up under high seismic loading, thus causing a nonlinear response. For this reason, the typical response spectrum analysis performed to analyze a survival level seismic earthquake is not sufficient in determining the true response of the structure. Therefore, a nonlinear transient finite element analysis (FEA) of the telescope structure was performed to assess high risk areas and develop acceleration responses for future instrument design. Several configurations were considered combining different installed components and altitude pointing directions. A description of the models, methodology, and results are presented.

Multivariate Formation Pressure Prediction with Seismic-derived Petrophysical Properties from Prestack AVO inversion and Poststack Seismic Motion Inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.; Gu, H.

2017-12-01

A novel multivariate seismic formation pressure prediction methodology is presented, which incorporates high-resolution seismic velocity data from prestack AVO inversion, and petrophysical data (porosity and shale volume) derived from poststack seismic motion inversion. In contrast to traditional seismic formation prediction methods, the proposed methodology is based on a multivariate pressure prediction model and utilizes a trace-by-trace multivariate regression analysis on seismic-derived petrophysical properties to calibrate model parameters in order to make accurate predictions with higher resolution in both vertical and lateral directions. With prestack time migration velocity as initial velocity model, an AVO inversion was first applied to prestack dataset to obtain high-resolution seismic velocity with higher frequency that is to be used as the velocity input for seismic pressure prediction, and the density dataset to calculate accurate Overburden Pressure (OBP). Seismic Motion Inversion (SMI) is an inversion technique based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Both structural variability and similarity of seismic waveform are used to incorporate well log data to characterize the variability of the property to be obtained. In this research, porosity and shale volume are first interpreted on well logs, and then combined with poststack seismic data using SMI to build porosity and shale volume datasets for seismic pressure prediction. A multivariate effective stress model is used to convert velocity, porosity and shale volume datasets to effective stress. After a thorough study of the regional stratigraphic and sedimentary characteristics, a regional normally compacted interval model is built, and then the coefficients in the multivariate prediction model are determined in a trace-by-trace multivariate regression analysis on the petrophysical data. The coefficients are used to convert velocity, porosity and shale volume datasets to effective stress and then

Vulnerability of housing buildings in Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostenaru, M.

2009-04-01

The author participates to the World Housing Encyclopedia project (www.world-housing.net), an internet based database of housing buildings in earthquake prone areas of the world. This is a voluntary project run by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, California and the International Association of Earthquake Engineering, financial means being available only for the website where the information is shared. For broader dissemination in 2004 a summary publication of the reports to date was published. The database can be querried for various parameters and browsed after geographic distribution. Participation is open to any housing experts. Between 2003 and 2006 the author was also member of the editorial board. The author contributed numerous reports about building types in Romania, and each one about building types in Germany and Switzerland. This presentation will be about the contributed reports on building types in Romania. To the Encyclopedia eight reports on building types from Bucharest were contributed, while in further research of the author one more was similarly described regarding the vulnerability and the seismic retrofit. The selection of these types was done considering the historic development of the built substance in Bucharest from 1850 on, time from which a representative amount of housing buildings which can be classified in typologies can be found in Bucharest. While the structural types are not necessarily characteristic for the style, since the style has other time limits, often appearing before the type became common and then remaining being practiced also after another style gained ground, a historic succession can be seen also in this case. The nine types considered can be grouped in seven time categories: - the time 1850-1880, for a vernacular housing type with masonry load bearing walls and timber floors, - the time 1880-1920, for the type of two storey or multi-storey house with masonry walls and timber floors (in which

Using geologic maps and seismic refraction in pavement-deflection analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-10-01

The researchers examined the relationship between three data types -- geologic maps, pavement deflection, and seismic refraction data -- from diverse geologic settings to determine whether geologic maps and seismic data might be used to interpret def...

The vulnerability of family caregivers in relation to vulnerability as understood by nurses.

PubMed

Sarvimäki, Anneli; Stenbock-Hult, Bettina; Sundell, Eija; Oesch-Börman, Christine

2017-03-01

In Finland, the care of older persons is shifting from institutional care to family care. Research shows that family caregivers experience their situation much in the same way as professional nurses. The nurses' experiences have been studied in terms of vulnerability, and the same perspective could deepen our understanding of family caregivers' experiences. The aim of this study was to gain knowledge of the vulnerability of older caregivers taking care of an ageing family member. The research questions were as follows: How do family caregivers experience vulnerability? How do their experiences relate to vulnerability as understood by nurses? The study was done as a secondary analysis of focus group interviews on the experiences and daily life of older family caregivers. Four caregivers had taken part in monthly interviews during a period of 10 months. The interviews were analysed by deductive and inductive content analysis. The results showed that the caregivers saw caregiving as part of being human. They experienced a variety of feelings and moral agony and were harmed physically, mentally and socially. They showed courage, protected themselves and recognised that being a caregiver also was a source of maturing and developing. These results corresponded with the nurses' understanding of vulnerability. Shame, the experience of duty as a burden, worry and loneliness were themes that were found only among the family caregivers. The use of a matrix may have restricted the analysis, but using it in an unconstrained way allowed for new themes to be created. The results indicate a common humanness and vulnerability in professional and family caregiving. They also show that family caregivers need more support both from society and professionals. © 2016 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Seismic interaction between a building network and a sedimentary basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kham, M.; Semblat, J. F.; Bard, P. Y.; Gueguen, P.

2003-04-01

The classical procedure to assess the seismic risk for a superficial structure consists in distinguishing firstly the characterization of the seismic hazard and secondly the analysis of the structure vulnerability. But, as far as the entire urban area is concerned by the seismic risk, a network of superficial structures may influence the free-field motion. In this way, convergent observations were made during the 1985 Mexico earthquake where the large increase in duration may not be completely explained only by site effects. This phenomenon involving the interaction between a city and the sedimentary basin is called Site-City Interaction (SCI) and was firstly underlined by Gueguen [1] in Volvi european test site. Under seismic excitation, the energy radiated by the city back into the soil seems to be mainly controlled by the eigenfrequency ratio fB/fs between the buildings and the soil as well as the urban density. Nevertheless, the key parameters supporting or controlling the SCI effect mainly remain unknown. This point is all the more obvious since present studies on the issue suffer a lack of experimental data characterizing the "urban free field". In the present work, we aim to quantify the specific role of some parameters characterizing the city on seismic hazard modification, such as the urban density, the resonance frequency of the buildings in the city, its homogeneity level (one or several types of different buildings) or the periodicity (or not) of the buildings distribution. To this purpose, a boundary element model is considered which comprises alluvial layers over a rigid elastic basement and superficial buildings. Impedance contrast is taken to 5 in order to support the trapping of the incident energy inside the superficial layers. The whole system is then submitted to a Ricker signal which frequency is successively adjusted to the city and the soil fundamental frequencies. The case of Nice city (France) over a two dimensional basin is then considered

Analysis of the seismic activity associated with the 2010 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budi-Santoso, Agus; Lesage, Philippe; Dwiyono, Sapari; Sumarti, Sri; Subandriyo; Surono; Jousset, Philippe; Metaxian, Jean-Philippe

2013-07-01

The 2010 eruption of Merapi is the first large explosive eruption of the volcano that has been instrumentally observed. The main characteristics of the seismic activity during the pre-eruptive period and the crisis are presented and interpreted in this paper. The first seismic precursors were a series of four shallow swarms during the period between 12 and 4 months before the eruption. These swarms are interpreted as the result of perturbations of the hydrothermal system by increasing heat flow. Shorter-term and more continuous precursory seismic activity started about 6 weeks before the initial explosion on 26 October 2010. During this period, the rate of seismicity increased almost constantly yielding a cumulative seismic energy release for volcano-tectonic (VT) and multiphase events (MP) of 7.5 × 1010 J. This value is 3 times the maximum energy release preceding previous effusive eruptions of Merapi. The high level reached and the accelerated behavior of both the deformation of the summit and the seismic activity are distinct features of the 2010 eruption. The hypocenters of VT events in 2010 occur in two clusters at of 2.5 to 5 km and less than 1.5 km depths below the summit. An aseismic zone was detected at 1.5-2.5 km depth, consistent with studies of previous eruptions, and indicating that this is a robust feature of Merapi's subsurface structure. Our analysis suggests that the aseismic zone is a poorly consolidated layer of altered material within the volcano. Deep VT events occurred mainly before 17 October 2010; subsequent to that time shallow activity strongly increased. The deep seismic activity is interpreted as associated with the enlargement of a narrow conduit by an unusually large volume of rapidly ascending magma. The shallow seismicity is interpreted as recording the final magma ascent and the rupture of a summit-dome plug, which triggered the eruption on 26 October 2010. Hindsight forecasting of the occurrence time of the eruption is performed

Assessment of the vulnerability and the resilience of the population at risk of multi-hazard: a support to geo-risk management in Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michellier, Caroline; Kervyn, François; Tréfon, Théodore; Wolff, Eléonore

2013-04-01

GeoRisCA is a project which aims at studying the geo-risk in the Kivu region (DRC, Rwanda, Burundi), in order to support risk management. The approach developed in GeoRisCA combines methodologies from various disciplines, which will allow the analyses of seismic, volcanic and mass-movement hazards and the vulnerability assessment of the threatened elements. Vulnerability is a complex concept which is commonly defined as the susceptibility of the population, the infrastructures and the natural ecosystems to suffer from damages if a hazard occurs. The densely populated area extended from the North Kivu province in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to North Burundi and East Rwanda is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides triggered by geodynamical processes (climate, seismicity, volcanism) and possibly worsen by anthropic actions. Located in the East African rift valley, the region is also characterized by a strong seismicity, with increasing people and infrastructure exposed. In addition, east DRC hosts the two most active African volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. Their activity can have serious impacts, as in 2002 when Nyiragongo directly endangers the ~800.000 inhabitants of Goma city, located ~15 km to the south. Linked to passive volcanic degassing, SO2 and CO2 discharge may also increase the population vulnerability(morbidity, mortality). Focusing specifically on this region, the vulnerability assessment methodology developed in GeoRisCA takes into account "exposure to perturbations" and "adaptive capacity or resilience" of the vulnerable systems. On one hand, the exposure is identified as the potential degree of loss of a given element or set of elements at risk; i.e., the susceptibility of people, infrastructures and buildings with respect to a hazard (social vulnerability). It focuses mainly on land use, and on demographic and socio-economic factors that increase or attenuate the impacts of hazards events on local populations. On the

Developing Vulnerability Analysis Method for Climate Change Adaptation on Agropolitan Region in Malang District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiarto, Y.; Perdinan; Atmaja, T.; Wibowo, A.

2017-03-01

Agriculture plays a strategic role in strengthening sustainable development. Based on agropolitan concept, the village becomes the center of economic activities by combining agriculture, agro-industry, agribusiness and tourism that able to create high value-added economy. The impact of climate change on agriculture and water resources may increase the pressure on agropolitan development. The assessment method is required to measure the vulnerability of area-based communities in the agropolitan to climate change impact. An analysis of agropolitan vulnerability was conducted in Malang district based on four aspects and considering the availability and distribution of water as the problem. The indicators used to measure was vulnerability component which consisted of sensitivity and adaptive capacity and exposure component. The studies earned 21 indicators derived from the 115 village-based data. The results of vulnerability assessments showed that most of the villages were categorised at a moderate level. Around 20% of 388 villages were categorized at high to very high level of vulnerability due to low level of agricultural economic. In agropolitan region within the sub-district of Poncokusumo, the vulnerability of the villages varies between very low to very high. The most villages were vulnerable due to lower adaptive capacity, eventhough the level of sensitivity and exposure of all villages were relatively similar. The existence of water resources was the biggest contributor to the high exposure of the villages in Malang district, while the reception of credit facilities and source of family income were among the indicators that lead to high sensitivity component.

Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

2017-12-01

The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from

Seismic hazard, risk, and design for South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Jaiswal, Kishor; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Luco, Nicolas; Haller, Kathleen; Mueller, Charles; Shumway, Allison

2018-01-01

We calculate seismic hazard, risk, and design criteria across South America using the latest data, models, and methods to support public officials, scientists, and engineers in earthquake risk mitigation efforts. Updated continental scale seismic hazard models are based on a new seismicity catalog, seismicity rate models, evaluation of earthquake sizes, fault geometry and rate parameters, and ground‐motion models. Resulting probabilistic seismic hazard maps show peak ground acceleration, modified Mercalli intensity, and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1 s periods for 2%, 10%, and 50% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. Ground shaking soil amplification at each site is calculated by considering uniform soil that is applied in modern building codes or by applying site‐specific factors based on VS30">VS30 shear‐wave velocities determined through a simple topographic proxy technique. We use these hazard models in conjunction with the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) model to calculate economic and casualty risk. Risk is computed by incorporating the new hazard values amplified by soil, PAGER fragility/vulnerability equations, and LandScan 2012 estimates of population exposure. We also calculate building design values using the guidelines established in the building code provisions. Resulting hazard and associated risk is high along the northern and western coasts of South America, reaching damaging levels of ground shaking in Chile, western Argentina, western Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, and in localized areas distributed across the rest of the continent where historical earthquakes have occurred. Constructing buildings and other structures to account for strong shaking in these regions of high hazard and risk should mitigate losses and reduce casualties from effects of future earthquake strong ground shaking. National models should be developed by scientists and engineers in each country using the best

Seismic sequences in the Sombrero Seismic Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulliam, J.; Huerfano, V. A.; ten Brink, U.; von Hillebrandt, C.

2007-05-01

The northeastern Caribbean, in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, has a long and well-documented history of devastating earthquakes and tsunamis, including major events in 1670, 1787, 1867, 1916, 1918, and 1943. Recently, seismicity has been concentrated to the north and west of the British Virgin Islands, in the region referred to as the Sombrero Seismic Zone by the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN). In the combined seismicity catalog maintained by the PRSN, several hundred small to moderate magnitude events can be found in this region prior to 2006. However, beginning in 2006 and continuing to the present, the rate of seismicity in the Sombrero suddenly increased, and a new locus of activity developed to the east of the previous location. Accurate estimates of seismic hazard, and the tsunamigenic potential of seismic events, depend on an accurate and comprehensive understanding of how strain is being accommodated in this corner region. Are faults locked and accumulating strain for release in a major event? Or is strain being released via slip over a diffuse system of faults? A careful analysis of seismicity patterns in the Sombrero region has the potential to both identify faults and modes of failure, provided the aggregation scheme is tuned to properly identify related events. To this end, we experimented with a scheme to identify seismic sequences based on physical and temporal proximity, under the assumptions that (a) events occur on related fault systems as stress is refocused by immediately previous events and (b) such 'stress waves' die out with time, so that two events that occur on the same system within a relatively short time window can be said to have a similar 'trigger' in ways that two nearby events that occurred years apart cannot. Patterns that emerge from the identification, temporal sequence, and refined locations of such sequences of events carry information about stress accommodation that is obscured by large clouds of

Time-lapse seismic waveform modelling and attribute analysis using hydromechanical models for a deep reservoir undergoing depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.-X.; Angus, D. A.; Blanchard, T. D.; Wang, G.-L.; Yuan, S.-Y.; Garcia, A.

2016-04-01

Extraction of fluids from subsurface reservoirs induces changes in pore pressure, leading not only to geomechanical changes, but also perturbations in seismic velocities and hence observable seismic attributes. Time-lapse seismic analysis can be used to estimate changes in subsurface hydromechanical properties and thus act as a monitoring tool for geological reservoirs. The ability to observe and quantify changes in fluid, stress and strain using seismic techniques has important implications for monitoring risk not only for petroleum applications but also for geological storage of CO2 and nuclear waste scenarios. In this paper, we integrate hydromechanical simulation results with rock physics models and full-waveform seismic modelling to assess time-lapse seismic attribute resolution for dynamic reservoir characterization and hydromechanical model calibration. The time-lapse seismic simulations use a dynamic elastic reservoir model based on a North Sea deep reservoir undergoing large pressure changes. The time-lapse seismic traveltime shifts and time strains calculated from the modelled and processed synthetic data sets (i.e. pre-stack and post-stack data) are in a reasonable agreement with the true earth models, indicating the feasibility of using 1-D strain rock physics transform and time-lapse seismic processing methodology. Estimated vertical traveltime shifts for the overburden and the majority of the reservoir are within ±1 ms of the true earth model values, indicating that the time-lapse technique is sufficiently accurate for predicting overburden velocity changes and hence geomechanical effects. Characterization of deeper structure below the overburden becomes less accurate, where more advanced time-lapse seismic processing and migration is needed to handle the complex geometry and strong lateral induced velocity changes. Nevertheless, both migrated full-offset pre-stack and near-offset post-stack data image the general features of both the overburden and

Seismic Vulnerability Evaluations Within The Structural And Functional Survey Activities Of The COM Bases In Italy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Albanese, V.

The paper describes technical and functional surveys on COM buildings (Mixed Operative Centre). This activity started since 2005, with the contribution of both Italian Civil Protection Department and the Regions involved. The project aims to evaluate the efficiency of COM buildings, checking not only structural, architectonic and functional characteristics but also paying attention to surrounding real estate vulnerability, road network, railways, harbours, airports, area morphological and hydro-geological characteristics, hazardous activities, etc. The first survey was performed in eastern Sicily, before the European Civil Protection Exercise 'EUROSOT 2005'. Then, since 2006, a new survey campaign started in Abruzzo, Molise, Calabria andmore » Puglia Regions. The more important issue of the activity was the vulnerability assessment. So this paper deals with a more refined vulnerability evaluation technique by means of the SAVE methodology, developed in the 1st task of SAVE project within the GNDT-DPC programme 2000-2002 (Zuccaro, 2005); the SAVE methodology has been already successfully employed in previous studies (i.e. school buildings intervention programme at national scale; list of strategic public buildings in Campania, Sicilia and Basilicata). In this paper, data elaborated by SAVE methodology are compared with expert evaluations derived from the direct inspections on COM buildings. This represents a useful exercise for the improvement either of the survey forms or of the methodology for the quick assessment of the vulnerability.« less

Studies of oceanic, atmospheric, cryospheric, and fluvial processes through spectral analysis of seismic noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, Robert Ernest

During the past decade, there has been rapidly growing interest in using the naturally occurring seismic noise field to study oceanic, atmospheric, and surface processes. As many seismic noise sources, are non-impulsive and vary over a broad range of time scales (e.g., minutes to decades), they are commonly analyzed using spectral analysis or other hybrid time-frequency domain methods. The PQLX community data analysis program, and the recently released Noise Tool Kit that I co-developed with Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology's Data Management Center are used here to characterize seismic noise for a variety of environmental targets across a broad range of frequencies. The first two chapters of the dissertation place a strong emphasis on analysis of environmental microseism signals, which occur between 1-25 s period and are dominated by seismic surface waves excited by multiple ocean-solid Earth energy transfer processes. I move away from microseisms in Chapter 3 to investigate the generally higher frequency seismic signals (> 0.33 Hz) generated by fluvial systems. In Chapter 1, I analyze recently collected, broadband data from temporary and permanent Antarctic stations to quantitatively assess background seismic noise levels across the continent between 2007-2012, including substantial previously unsampled sections of the Antarctic continental interior. I characterize three-component noise levels between 0.15-150 s using moving window probability density function-derived metrics and analyze seismic noise levels in multiple frequency bands to examine different noise sources. These metrics reveal and quantify patterns of significant seasonal and geographic noise variations across the continent, including the strong effects of seasonal sea ice variation on the microseism, at a new level of resolution. Thorough analysis of the seismic noise environment and its relation to instrumentation and siting techniques in the Polar Regions facilitates new science

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

2016-06-01

We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after

Stress and structure analysis of the Seismic Gap between the Wenchuan and Lushan Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Chuntao

2017-04-01

An array of 20 short-period and 15 broadband seismometers were deployed to monitor the seismic gap between the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake. The Wenchuan earthquake ruptured from epicenter at (31.01°N, 103.42°E) largely northeastward while the Lushan earthquake ruptured from epicenter at (30.3°N, 103.0°E) largely southwestward. The region between the two earthquakes has recorded very few aftershocks and cataloged seismicity before and after the two big earthquakes compared to neighboring segments. As one small segment of the 500KM long Longmen Shan fault system, its absence of seismicity draws hot debate on whether a big one is still in brewing or steady creeping is in control of the strain energy release. The dense array is deployed primarily aimed to detect events that are much smaller than cataloged events and to determine if the segment is experiencing constantly creeping. The preliminary findings include: (1) source mechanisms show that the seismic gap appears to be a transitional zone between north and south segment. The events to the south are primarily thrust while events to north have more or less striking-slip components. This is also the case for both Lushan and Wenchuan earthquake; (2) The receiver function analysis shows that the Moho beneath the seismic Gap is less defined than its adjacent region with relatively weaker Ps conversion phases; (3) Both receiver function and ambient noise tomography show that the velocities in the upper crust is relatively lower in the Gap region than surrounding regions; (4) significant number of small earthquakes are located near surface in the gap region. Further examinations should be conducted before we can make a sounding conclusion on what mechanism is in control of the seismicity in this region.

Analysis of Regolith Properties Using Seismic Signals Generated by InSight's HP3 Penetrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kedar, Sharon; Andrade, Jose; Banerdt, Bruce; Delage, Pierre; Golombek, Matt; Grott, Matthias; Hudson, Troy; Kiely, Aaron; Knapmeyer, Martin; Knapmeyer-Endrun, Brigitte; Krause, Christian; Kawamura, Taichi; Lognonne, Philippe; Pike, Tom; Ruan, Youyi; Spohn, Tilman; Teanby, Nick; Tromp, Jeroen; Wookey, James

2017-10-01

InSight's Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure (SEIS) provides a unique and unprecedented opportunity to conduct the first geotechnical survey of the Martian soil by taking advantage of the repeated seismic signals that will be generated by the mole of the Heat Flow and Physical Properties Package (HP3). Knowledge of the elastic properties of the Martian regolith have implications to material strength and can constrain models of water content, and provide context to geological processes and history that have acted on the landing site in western Elysium Planitia. Moreover, it will help to reduce travel-time errors introduced into the analysis of seismic data due to poor knowledge of the shallow subsurface. The challenge faced by the InSight team is to overcome the limited temporal resolution of the sharp hammer signals, which have significantly higher frequency content than the SEIS 100 Hz sampling rate. Fortunately, since the mole propagates at a rate of ˜1 mm per stroke down to 5 m depth, we anticipate thousands of seismic signals, which will vary very gradually as the mole travels. Using a combination of field measurements and modeling we simulate a seismic data set that mimics the InSight HP3-SEIS scenario, and the resolution of the InSight seismometer data. We demonstrate that the direct signal, and more importantly an anticipated reflected signal from the interface between the bottom of the regolith layer and an underlying lava flow, are likely to be observed both by Insight's Very Broad Band (VBB) seismometer and Short Period (SP) seismometer. We have outlined several strategies to increase the signal temporal resolution using the multitude of hammer stroke and internal timing information to stack and interpolate multiple signals, and demonstrated that in spite of the low resolution, the key parameters—seismic velocities and regolith depth—can be retrieved with a high degree of confidence.

Masonry Infilling Effect On Seismic Vulnerability and Performance Level of High Ductility RC Frames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghalehnovi, M.; Shahraki, H.

2008-07-08

In last years researchers preferred behavior-based design of structure to force-based one for designing and construction of the earthquake-resistance structures, this method is named performance based designing. The main goal of this method is designing of structure members for a certain performance or behavior. On the other hand in most of buildings, load bearing frames are infilled with masonry materials which leads to considerable changes in mechanical properties of frames. But usually infilling wall's effect has been ignored in nonlinear analysis of structures because of complication of the problem and lack of simple logical solution. As a result lateral stiffness,more » strength, ductility and performance of the structure will be computed with less accuracy. In this paper by use of Smooth hysteretic model for masonry infillings, some high ductile RC frames (4, 8 stories including 1, 2 and 3 spans) designed according to Iranian code are considered. They have been analyzed by nonlinear dynamic method in two states, with and without infilling. Then their performance has been determined with criteria of ATC 40 and compared with recommended performance in Iranian seismic code (standard No. 2800)« less

Risk and Vulnerability Analysis of Satellites Due to MM/SD with PIRAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kempf, Scott; Schafer, Frank Rudolph, Martin; Welty, Nathan; Donath, Therese; Destefanis, Roberto; Grassi, Lilith; Janovsky, Rolf; Evans, Leanne; Winterboer, Arne

2013-08-01

Until recently, the state-of-the-art assessment of the threat posed to spacecraft by micrometeoroids and space debris was limited to the application of ballistic limit equations to the outer hull of a spacecraft. The probability of no penetration (PNP) is acceptable for assessing the risk and vulnerability of manned space mission, however, for unmanned missions, whereby penetrations of the spacecraft exterior do not necessarily constitute satellite or mission failure, these values are overly conservative. The newly developed software tool PIRAT (Particle Impact Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Tool) has been developed based on the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert (SRL) triple-wall ballistic limit equation (BLE), applicable for various satellite components. As a result, it has become possible to assess the individual failure rates of satellite components. This paper demonstrates the modeling of an example satellite, the performance of a PIRAT analysis and the potential for subsequent design optimizations with respect of micrometeoroid and space debris (MM/SD) impact risk.

Seismic Hazard Analysis for Armenia and its Surrounding Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E.; Shen-Tu, B.; Mahdyiar, M.; Karakhanyan, A.; Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Gee, R. C.

2017-12-01

The Republic of Armenia is located within the central part of a large, 800 km wide, intracontinental collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Active deformation occurs along numerous structures in the form of faulting, folding, and volcanism distributed throughout the entire zone from the Bitlis-Zargos suture belt to the Greater Caucasus Mountains and between the relatively rigid Back Sea and Caspian Sea blocks without any single structure that can be claimed as predominant. In recent years, significant work has been done on mapping active faults, compiling and reviewing historic and paleoseismological studies in the region, especially in Armenia; these recent research contributions have greatly improved our understanding of the seismogenic sources and their characteristics. In this study we performed a seismic hazard analysis for Armenia and its surrounding areas using the latest detailed geological and paleoseismological information on active faults, strain rates estimated from kinematic modeling of GPS data and all available historic earthquake data. The seismic source model uses a combination of characteristic earthquake and gridded seismicity models to take advantage of the detailed knowledge of the known faults while acknowledging the distributed deformation and regional tectonic environment of the collision zone. In addition, the fault model considers earthquake ruptures that include single and multi-segment or fault rupture scenarios with earthquakes that can rupture any part of a multiple segment fault zone. The ground motion model uses a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) selected from a pool of GMPEs based on the assessment of each GMPE against the available strong motion data in the region. The hazard is computed in the GEM's OpenQuake engine. We will present final hazard results and discuss the uncertainties associated with various input data and their impact on the hazard at various locations.

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Multifractal Analysis of Seismically Induced Soft-Sediment Deformation Structures Imaged by X-Ray Computed Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakashima, Yoshito; Komatsubara, Junko

Unconsolidated soft sediments deform and mix complexly by seismically induced fluidization. Such geological soft-sediment deformation structures (SSDSs) recorded in boring cores were imaged by X-ray computed tomography (CT), which enables visualization of the inhomogeneous spatial distribution of iron-bearing mineral grains as strong X-ray absorbers in the deformed strata. Multifractal analysis was applied to the two-dimensional (2D) CT images with various degrees of deformation and mixing. The results show that the distribution of the iron-bearing mineral grains is multifractal for less deformed/mixed strata and almost monofractal for fully mixed (i.e. almost homogenized) strata. Computer simulations of deformation of real and synthetic digital images were performed using the egg-beater flow model. The simulations successfully reproduced the transformation from the multifractal spectra into almost monofractal spectra (i.e. almost convergence on a single point) with an increase in deformation/mixing intensity. The present study demonstrates that multifractal analysis coupled with X-ray CT and the mixing flow model is useful to quantify the complexity of seismically induced SSDSs, standing as a novel method for the evaluation of cores for seismic risk assessment.

Seismic clusters analysis in Northeastern Italy by the nearest-neighbor approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

2018-01-01

The main features of earthquake clusters in Northeastern Italy are explored, with the aim to get new insights on local scale patterns of seismicity in the area. The study is based on a systematic analysis of robustly and uniformly detected seismic clusters, which are identified by a statistical method, based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in the space-time-energy domain. The method permits us to highlight and investigate the internal structure of earthquake sequences, and to differentiate the spatial properties of seismicity according to the different topological features of the clusters structure. To analyze seismicity of Northeastern Italy, we use information from local OGS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. A preliminary reappraisal of the earthquake bulletins is carried out and the area of sufficient completeness is outlined. Various techniques are considered to estimate the scaling parameters that characterize earthquakes occurrence in the region, namely the b-value and the fractal dimension of epicenters distribution, required for the application of the nearest-neighbor technique. Specifically, average robust estimates of the parameters of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, are assessed for the whole outlined region and are used to compute the nearest-neighbor distances. Clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite reliable and robust with respect to the minimum magnitude cutoff of the input catalog; the identified clusters are well consistent with those obtained from manual aftershocks identification of selected sequences. We demonstrate that the earthquake clusters have distinct preferred geographic locations, and we identify two areas that differ substantially in the examined clustering properties. Specifically, burst-like sequences are associated with the north-western part and swarm-like sequences with the south-eastern part of the study

The shallow seismic structure of the Larderello geothermal field (Italy) as seen from Receiver Function analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piana Agostinetti, Nicola; Licciardi, Andrea; Piccinini, Davide; Mazzarini, Francesco; Musumeci, Giovanni; Saccorotti, Gilberto

2017-04-01

The Larderello field (Tuscany, Italy) is the oldest example in the world of geothermal energy exploitation for industrial purposes. Despite its century long history of exploration and exploitation, the deep structure (4-8km depth) of the Larderello field is still poorly known, due to (a) the lack of resolution of the applied exploration techniques and (b) the lack of interest in the investigation of deep geothermal reservoirs, given the abundant amount of energy extracted from the shallow reservoirs. Recently, the increasing demand of green-energy promoted a renewed interest in the geothermal industrial sector, which translated into new exploration efforts, especially to obtain a detailed characterization of deep geothermal sources. We investigate the seismic structure of the Larderello geothermal field using Receiver Function (RF) analysis. Crustal seismic structures are routinely investigated using the RF methodology, where teleseismic P-wave are analysed to extract P-to-S converted phases that can be related to the propagation of the P-wave across a seismic discontinuity. We compute RF from 26 seismic stations, belonging to both temporary and permanent networks: the GAPSS and RETREAT experiments and the Italian Seismic Network. The RF data-set is migrated at depth and decomposed into azimuthal harmonics. Computing the first, k=0, and the second, k=1, harmonics allows to separate the "isotropic" contribution, due to the change of the isotropic properties of the sampled materials (recorded on the k=0 harmonics), from the "anisotropic" contribution, where the energy is related to the propagation of the P-wave through anisotropic materials (recorded on the k=1 harmonics). Preliminary results allow us: (1) to infer the position of the main S-wave velocity discontinuities in the study area, mainly a shallow Tyrrhenian Moho and a very-low S-wave velocity body in the center of the Larderello dome, at about 5-15km depth; and (2) to map the presence of anisotropic

Flexible Software Architecture for Visualization and Seismic Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petunin, S.; Pavlov, I.; Mogilenskikh, D.; Podzyuban, D.; Arkhipov, A.; Baturuin, N.; Lisin, A.; Smith, A.; Rivers, W.; Harben, P.

2007-12-01

Research in the field of seismology requires software and signal processing utilities for seismogram manipulation and analysis. Seismologists and data analysts often encounter a major problem in the use of any particular software application specific to seismic data analysis: the tuning of commands and windows to the specific waveforms and hot key combinations so as to fit their familiar informational environment. The ability to modify the user's interface independently from the developer requires an adaptive code structure. An adaptive code structure also allows for expansion of software capabilities such as new signal processing modules and implementation of more efficient algorithms. Our approach is to use a flexible "open" architecture for development of geophysical software. This report presents an integrated solution for organizing a logical software architecture based on the Unix version of the Geotool software implemented on the Microsoft NET 2.0 platform. Selection of this platform greatly expands the variety and number of computers that can implement the software, including laptops that can be utilized in field conditions. It also facilitates implementation of communication functions for seismic data requests from remote databases through the Internet. The main principle of the new architecture for Geotool is that scientists should be able to add new routines for digital waveform analysis via software plug-ins that utilize the basic Geotool display for GUI interaction. The use of plug-ins allows the efficient integration of diverse signal-processing software, including software still in preliminary development, into an organized platform without changing the fundamental structure of that platform itself. An analyst's use of Geotool is tracked via a metadata file so that future studies can reconstruct, and alter, the original signal processing operations. The work has been completed in the framework of a joint Russian- American project.

Seismic microzoning projects and their implementation in Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitz, M.; Cano, V.; Olbrich, F.; Vallee, M.; Morales, C.; Arreaza, A.; Mendes, K.; Klarica, S.; Alvarez Gomez, J.; Aray, J.; Vielma, J.; Pombo, A.; Diaz, J.; Grupo de trabajo

2013-05-01

Site effects have been recognized to play an important role in damage distribution of destructive earthquakes. These effects have been observed in Venezuela especially during the 1967 Caracas earthquake, when 4 buildings with 10 and more storeys during the Caracas 1967 earthquake collapsed, and a big number of them in the same deep sediment area have been seriously damaged. This motivated the development of studies regarding the subsurface configuration of Caracas and Barquisimeto during the last decade, with a seismic microzoning project realized in both cities from 2005 to 2009. The main results of this project were the development of design response spectra for the different microzones within the sedimentary basin, as well as estimates of landslide hazard. Implementation of the results in municipality ordinances is actually discussed with local authorities. They are aimed to address mitigation for new constructions by the application of the specific design spectra, for existing buildings via evaluation and retrofitting strategies, and for slope areas (informal, as well as formal developments) due to the identification of areas that may not be developed or require detailed studies of slope stabilities. Since then, seismic microzoning studies were started in Cumaná, Guarenas/Guatire and Lara state, and within a broader context of integrated risk management, which includes flooding, landslide and technological risks, in Mérida, Valencia, Maracay, Barcelona/Puerto La Cruz and Valle de la Pascua. The projects are coordinated by the Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research (FUNVISIS) in cooperation with local universities. Efforts are done to unable local researchers to apply the methodologies in other cities as Valera, Trujillo, Boconó, San Cristóbal and Tucacas. A unified seismic hazard map as input motion to these studies is actually in development. Depending on the local characteristics, building inventory and vulnerability analysis are done for risk

Induced seismicity risk assessment for the 2006 Basel, Switzerland, Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project: Role of parameter uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, Arnaud; Landtwing, Delano; Mena, Banu; Wiemer, Stefan

2013-04-01

A project to exploit the geothermal potential of the crystalline rocks below the city of Basel, Switzerland, was abandoned in recent years due to unacceptable risk associated to increased seismic activity during and following hydraulic stimulation. The largest induced earthquake (Mw = 3.2, 8 December 2006) was widely felt by the local population and provoked slight non-structural damage to buildings. Here we present a probabilistic risk assessment analysis for the 2006 Basel EGS project, including uncertainty linked to the following parameters: induced seismicity forecast model, maximum magnitude, intensity prediction equation, site amplification or not, vulnerability index and cost function. Uncertainty is implemented using a logic tree composed of a total of 324 branches. Exposure is defined from the Basel area building stock of Baisch et al. (2009) (SERIANEX study). We first generate deterministic loss curves, defined as the insured value loss (IVL) as a function of earthquake magnitude. We calibrate the vulnerability curves for low EMS-98 intensities (using the input parameters fixed in the SERIANEX study) such that we match the real loss value, which has been estimated to 3 million CHF (lower than the paid value) for the Mw = 3.2 event. Coupling the deterministic loss curves with seismic hazard curves using the short-term earthquake risk (STEER) method, we obtain site-specific probabilistic loss curves (PLC, i.e., probability of exceeding a given IVL) for the 79 settlements considered. We then integrate over the different PLCs to calculate the most probable IVL. Based on the proposed logic tree, we find considerable variations in the most probable IVL, with lower values for the 6-day injection period than for the first 6 days of the post-injection period. This difference is due to a b-value significantly lower in the second period than in the first one, yielding a higher likelihood of larger earthquakes in the post-injection phase. Based on tornado diagrams

Small aperture seismic arrays for studying planetary interiors and seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmerr, N. C.; Lekic, V.; Fouch, M. J.; Panning, M. P.; Siegler, M.; Weber, R. C.

2017-12-01

Seismic arrays are a powerful tool for understanding the interior structure and seismicity across objects in the Solar System. Given the operational constraints of ground-based lander investigations, a small aperture seismic array can provide many of the benefits of a larger-scale network, but does not necessitate a global deployment of instrumentation. Here we define a small aperture array as a deployment of multiple seismometers, with a separation between instruments of 1-1000 meters. For example, small aperture seismic arrays have been deployed on the Moon during the Apollo program, the Active Seismic Experiments of Apollo 14 and 16, and the Lunar Seismic Profiling Experiment deployed by the Apollo 17 astronauts. Both were high frequency geophone arrays with spacing of 50 meters that provided information on the layering and velocity structure of the uppermost kilometer of the lunar crust. Ideally such arrays would consist of instruments that are 3-axis short period or broadband seismometers. The instruments must have a sampling rate and frequency range sensitivity capable of distinguishing between waves arriving at each station in the array. Both terrestrial analogs and the data retrieved from the Apollo arrays demonstrate the efficacy of this approach. Future opportunities exist for deployment of seismic arrays on Europa, asteroids, and other objects throughout the Solar System. Here we will present both observational data and 3-D synthetic modeling results that reveal the sensing requirements and the primary advantages of a small aperture seismic array over single station approach. For example, at the smallest apertures of < 1 m, we constrain that sampling rates must exceed 500 Hz and instrument sensitivity must extend to 100 Hz or greater. Such advantages include the improved ability to resolve the location of the sources near the array through detection of backazimuth and differential timing between stations, determination of the small-scale structure

New Madrid Seismic Zone: a test case for naturally induced seismicity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nava, S.J.

1983-09-01

Induced seismicity caused by man-made events, such as the filling of reservoirs has been well documented. In contrast, naturally induced seismicity has received little attention. It has been shown that a fluctuation of as little as several bars can trigger reservoir induced earthquakes. Naturally occurring phenomena generate similar fluctuations and could trigger earthquakes where the faults in ambient stress field are suitably oriented and close to failure. The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) presents an ideal test case for the study of naturally induced seismicity. The ideal data set for a study of triggering effects must contain a statistically significantmore » number of events, a constant accumulated strain, and a limited focal region. New Madrid earthquakes are well documented from 1974 to the present, down to a magnitude approx. 1.8. They lie in a distinct fault pattern and occur as a reaction to the regional stress regime. A statistical correlation was made between the earthquakes and a variety of different types of loads, to see if New Madrid seismicity could be triggered by natural fluctuations. The types of triggers investigated ranged from solid earth tides to variations in barometric pressure, rainfall, and stages of the Mississippi River. This analysis becomes complex because each factor investigated creates individual stresses, as well as having imbedded in it a reaction to other factors.« less

Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

2014-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

Predicting vulnerability to hopelessness. A longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Bonner, R L; Rich, A R

1991-01-01

The role of loneliness, irrational beliefs, and deficient reasons for living in predicting vulnerability to hopelessness under conditions of negative life stress was examined. Subjects (N = 178) completed the UCLA Loneliness Scale. Rational Beliefs Inventory, and the Reasons for Living Inventory at the beginning of the semester. Then, at midterm, measures of negative life stress, depression, and hopelessness were obtained from the same subjects. It was hypothesized that the vulnerability factors would interact with negative life stress to predict hopelessness, independent of depressed mood. The results of multiple regression analyses supported this hypothesis. Implications for research, prevention, and treatment are noted.

Seismic anisotropy across the east African plateau from shear wave splitting analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagley, B. C.; Nyblade, A.; Mulibo, G.; Tugume, F.

2011-12-01

Previous studies of the east African plateau reveal complicated patterns of seismic anisotropy that are not easily explained by a single mechanism. The pattern is defined by rift-parallel fast directions for stations within or near Cenozoic rift valleys, and near-null results in Precambrian terrains away from the rift. Data from 65 temporary Africa Array stations deployed between 2007 and 2011 are being used to make new shear wave splitting measurements. The stations span the east African plateau and cover both the eastern and western branches of the east African rift system, as well as unrifted Proterozoic and Archean terrains in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia. Through analysis of shear wave splitting we will better constrain the distribution of seismic anisotropy, and and from it gain new insight into the tectonic evolution of east Africa.

How much does geometry of seismic sources matter in tsunami modeling? A sensitivity analysis for the Calabrian subduction interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, R.; Maesano, F. E.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Volpe, M.; Basili, R.

2017-12-01

The geometry of seismogenic sources could be one of the most important factors concurring to control the generation and the propagation of earthquake-generated tsunamis and their effects on the coasts. Since the majority of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occur offshore, the corresponding faults are generally poorly constrained and, consequently, their geometry is often oversimplified as a planar fault. The rupture area of mega-thrust earthquakes in subduction zones, where most of the greatest tsunamis have occurred, extends for tens to hundreds of kilometers both down dip and along strike, and generally deviates from the planar geometry. Therefore, the larger the earthquake size is, the weaker the planar fault assumption become. In this work, we present a sensitivity analysis aimed to explore the effects on modeled tsunamis generated by seismic sources with different degrees of geometric complexities. We focused on the Calabrian subduction zone, located in the Mediterranean Sea, which is characterized by the convergence between the African and European plates, with rates of up to 5 mm/yr. This subduction zone has been considered to have generated some past large earthquakes and tsunamis, despite it shows only in-slab significant seismic activity below 40 km depth and no relevant seismicity in the shallower portion of the interface. Our analysis is performed by defining and modeling an exhaustive set of tsunami scenarios located in the Calabrian subduction and using different models of the subduction interface with increasing geometrical complexity, from a planar surface to a highly detailed 3D surface. The latter was obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles coupled with the analysis of the seismicity distribution. The more relevant effects due to the inclusion of 3D complexities in the seismic source geometry are finally highlighted in terms of the resulting tsunami impact.

Seismic response of a full-scale wind turbine tower using experimental and numerical modal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandil, Kamel Sayed Ahmad; Saudi, Ghada N.; Eltaly, Boshra Aboul-Anen; El-khier, Mostafa Mahmoud Abo

2016-12-01

Wind turbine technology has developed tremendously over the past years. In Egypt, the Zafarana wind farm is currently generating at a capacity of 517 MW, making it one of the largest onshore wind farms in the world. It is located in an active seismic zone along the west side of the Gulf of Suez. Accordingly, seismic risk assessment is demanded for studying the structural integrity of wind towers under expected seismic hazard events. In the context of ongoing joint Egypt-US research project "Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Towers in Zafarana wind Farm Egypt" (Project ID: 4588), this paper describes the dynamic performance investigation of an existing Nordex N43 wind turbine tower. Both experimental and numerical work are illustrated explaining the methodology adopted to investigate the dynamic behavior of the tower under seismic load. Field dynamic testing of the full-scale tower was performed using ambient vibration techniques (AVT). Both frequency domain and time domain methods were utilized to identify the actual dynamic properties of the tower as built in the site. Mainly, the natural frequencies, their corresponding mode shapes and damping ratios of the tower were successfully identified using AVT. A vibration-based finite element model (FEM) was constructed using ANSYS V.12 software. The numerical and experimental results of modal analysis were both compared for matching purpose. Using different simulation considerations, the initial FEM was updated to finally match the experimental results with good agreement. Using the final updated FEM, the response of the tower under the AQABA earthquake excitation was investigated. Time history analysis was conducted to define the seismic response of the tower in terms of the structural stresses and displacements. This work is considered as one of the pioneer structural studies of the wind turbine towers in Egypt. Identification of the actual dynamic properties of the existing tower was successfully performed

Post-processing of seismic parameter data based on valid seismic event determination

DOEpatents

McEvilly, Thomas V.

1985-01-01

An automated seismic processing system and method are disclosed, including an array of CMOS microprocessors for unattended battery-powered processing of a multi-station network. According to a characterizing feature of the invention, each channel of the network is independently operable to automatically detect, measure times and amplitudes, and compute and fit Fast Fourier transforms (FFT's) for both P- and S- waves on analog seismic data after it has been sampled at a given rate. The measured parameter data from each channel are then reviewed for event validity by a central controlling microprocessor and if determined by preset criteria to constitute a valid event, the parameter data are passed to an analysis computer for calculation of hypocenter location, running b-values, source parameters, event count, P- wave polarities, moment-tensor inversion, and Vp/Vs ratios. The in-field real-time analysis of data maximizes the efficiency of microearthquake surveys allowing flexibility in experimental procedures, with a minimum of traditional labor-intensive postprocessing. A unique consequence of the system is that none of the original data (i.e., the sensor analog output signals) are necessarily saved after computation, but rather, the numerical parameters generated by the automatic analysis are the sole output of the automated seismic processor.

An Extreme-Value Approach to Anomaly Vulnerability Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, Chris; Maggio, Gaspare; Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.

Combined GPS and seismic monitoring of a 12-story structure in a region of induced seismicity in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haase, J. S.; Soliman, M.; Kim, H.; Jaiswal, P.; Saunders, J. K.; Vernon, F.; Zhang, W.

2017-12-01

This work focuses on quantifying ground motions and their effects in Oklahoma near the location of the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee earthquake, where seismicity has been increasing due to wastewater injection related to oil and natural gas production. Much of the building inventory in Oklahoma was constructed before the increase in seismicity and before the implementation of earthquake design and detailing provisions for reinforced concrete (RC) structures. We will use combined GPS/seismic monitoring techniques to measure ground motion in the field and the response of structures to this ground motion. Several Oklahoma State University buildings experienced damage due to the Pawnee earthquake. The USGS Shake Map product estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) ranging from 0.12g to 0.15g at campus locations. We are deploying a high-rate GPS sensor and accelerometer on the roof and another accelerometer at ground level of a 12-story RC structure and at selected field sites in order to collect ambient noise data and nearby seismicity. The longer period recording characteristics of the GPS/seismic system are particularly well adapted to monitoring these large structures in the event of a significant earthquake. Gross characteristics of the structural system are described, which consists of RC columns and RC slabs in all stories. We conducted a preliminary structural analysis including modal analysis and response spectrum analysis based on a finite element (FE) simulation, which indicated that the period associated with the first X-axis bending, first torsional, and first Y-axis bending modes are 2.2 s, 2.1 s, and 1.8 s, respectively. Next, a preliminary analysis was conducted to estimate the range of expected deformation at the roof level for various earthquake excitations. The earthquake analysis shows a maximum roof displacement of 5 and 7 cm in the horizontal directions resulting from earthquake loads with PGA of 0.2g, well above the noise level of the combined GPS/seismic

Next generation seismic fragility curves for California bridges incorporating the evolution in seismic design philosophy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, Karthik Narayan

Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the seismic risk to highway bridges is crucial in pre-earthquake planning, and post-earthquake response of transportation systems. Such assessments provide valuable knowledge about a number of principal effects of earthquakes such as traffic disruption of the overall highway system, impact on the regions’ economy and post-earthquake response and recovery, and more recently serve as measures to quantify resilience. Unlike previous work, this study captures unique bridge design attributes specific to California bridge classes along with their evolution over three significant design eras, separated by the historic 1971 San Fernando and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes (these events affected changes in bridge seismic design philosophy). This research developed next-generation fragility curves for four multispan concrete bridge classes by synthesizing new knowledge and emerging modeling capabilities, and by closely coordinating new and ongoing national research initiatives with expertise from bridge designers. A multi-phase framework was developed for generating fragility curves, which provides decision makers with essential tools for emergency response, design, planning, policy support, and maximizing investments in bridge retrofit. This framework encompasses generational changes in bridge design and construction details. Parameterized high-fidelity three-dimensional nonlinear analytical models are developed for the portfolios of bridge classes within different design eras. These models incorporate a wide range of geometric and material uncertainties, and their responses are characterized under seismic loadings. Fragility curves were then developed considering the vulnerability of multiple components and thereby help to quantify the performance of highway bridge networks and to study the impact of seismic design principles on the performance within a bridge class. This not only leads to the development of fragility relations

Social vulnerability indicators as a sustainable planning tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Yung-Jaan, E-mail: yungjaanlee@gmail.com

In the face of global warming and environmental change, the conventional strategy of resource centralization will not be able to cope with a future of increasingly extreme climate events and related disasters. It may even contribute to inter-regional disparities as a result of these events. To promote sustainable development, this study offers a case study of developmental planning in Chiayi, Taiwan and a review of the relevant literature to propose a framework of social vulnerability indicators at the township level. The proposed framework can not only be used to measure the social vulnerability of individual townships in Chiayi, but alsomore » be used to capture the spatial developmental of Chiayi. Seventeen social vulnerability indicators provide information in five dimensions. Owing to limited access to relevant data, the values of only 13 indicators were calculated. By simply summarizing indicators without using weightings and by using zero-mean normalization to standardize the indicators, this study calculates social vulnerability scores for each township. To make social vulnerability indicators more useful, this study performs an overlay analysis of social vulnerability and patterns of risk associated with national disasters. The social vulnerability analysis draws on secondary data for 2012 from Taiwan's National Geographic Information System. The second layer of analysis consists of the flood potential ratings of the Taiwan Water Resources Agency as an index of biophysical vulnerability. The third layer consists of township-level administrative boundaries. Analytical results reveal that four out of the 18 townships in Chiayi not only are vulnerable to large-scale flooding during serious flood events, but also have the highest degree of social vulnerability. Administrative boundaries, on which social vulnerability is based, do not correspond precisely to “cross-administrative boundaries,” which are characteristics of the natural environment. This

An Analysis of Botnet Vulnerabilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Definition Currently, the primary defense against botnets is prompt patching of vulnerable systems and antivirus software . Network monitoring can identify...IRCd software , none were identified during this effort. AFIT iv For my wife, for her caring and support throughout the course of this...are software agents designed to automatically perform tasks. Examples include web-spiders that catalog the Internet and bots found in popular online

The Apollo passive seismic experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latham, G. V.; Dorman, H. J.; Horvath, P.; Ibrahim, A. K.; Koyama, J.; Nakamura, Y.

1979-01-01

The completed data set obtained from the 4-station Apollo seismic network includes signals from approximately 11,800 events of various types. Four data sets for use by other investigators, through the NSSDC, are in preparation. Some refinement of the lunar model based on seismic data can be expected, but its gross features remain as presented two years ago. The existence of a small, molten core remains dependent upon the analysis of signals from a single, far-side impact. Analysis of secondary arrivals from other sources may eventually resolve this issue, as well as continued refinement of the magnetic field measurements. Evidence of considerable lateral heterogeneity within the moon continues to build. The mystery of the much meteoroid flux estimate derived from lunar seismic measurements, as compared with earth-based estimates, remains; although, significant correlations between terrestrial and lunar observations are beginning to emerge.

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

PubMed

Azhar, Gulrez; Saha, Shubhayu; Ganguly, Partha; Mavalankar, Dileep; Madrigano, Jaime

2017-03-30

Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

Comparison analysis on vulnerability of metro networks based on complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianhua; Wang, Shuliang; Wang, Xiaoyuan

2018-04-01

This paper analyzes the networked characteristics of three metro networks, and two malicious attacks are employed to investigate the vulnerability of metro networks based on connectivity vulnerability and functionality vulnerability. Meanwhile, the networked characteristics and vulnerability of three metro networks are compared with each other. The results show that Shanghai metro network has the largest transport capacity, Beijing metro network has the best local connectivity and Guangzhou metro network has the best global connectivity, moreover Beijing metro network has the best homogeneous degree distribution. Furthermore, we find that metro networks are very vulnerable subjected to malicious attacks, and Guangzhou metro network has the best topological structure and reliability among three metro networks. The results indicate that the proposed methodology is feasible and effective to investigate the vulnerability and to explore better topological structure of metro networks.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

2007-10-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

Continuous, Large-Scale Processing of Seismic Archives for High-Resolution Monitoring of Seismic Activity and Seismogenic Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.

2012-12-01

Archives of digital seismic data recorded by seismometer networks around the world have grown tremendously over the last several decades helped by the deployment of seismic stations and their continued operation within the framework of monitoring earthquake activity and verification of the Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty. We show results from our continuing effort in developing efficient waveform cross-correlation and double-difference analysis methods for the large-scale processing of regional and global seismic archives to improve existing earthquake parameter estimates, detect seismic events with magnitudes below current detection thresholds, and improve real-time monitoring procedures. We demonstrate the performance of these algorithms as applied to the 28-year long seismic archive of the Northern California Seismic Network. The tools enable the computation of periodic updates of a high-resolution earthquake catalog of currently over 500,000 earthquakes using simultaneous double-difference inversions, achieving up to three orders of magnitude resolution improvement over existing hypocenter locations. This catalog, together with associated metadata, form the underlying relational database for a real-time double-difference scheme, DDRT, which rapidly computes high-precision correlation times and hypocenter locations of new events with respect to the background archive (http://ddrt.ldeo.columbia.edu). The DDRT system facilitates near-real-time seismicity analysis, including the ability to search at an unprecedented resolution for spatio-temporal changes in seismogenic properties. In areas with continuously recording stations, we show that a detector built around a scaled cross-correlation function can lower the detection threshold by one magnitude unit compared to the STA/LTA based detector employed at the network. This leads to increased event density, which in turn pushes the resolution capability of our location algorithms. On a global scale, we are currently building

Overview of Seismic Hazard and Vulnerability of Ordinary Buildings in Belgium: Methodological Aspects and Study Cases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barszez, Anne-Marie; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Plumier, Andre

Northwest Europe is a region in which damaging earthquakes exist. Assessing the risks of damages is useful, but this is not an easy work based on exact science.In this paper, we propose a general tool for a first level assessment of seismic risks (rapid diagnosis). General methodological aspects are presented. For a given building, the risk is represented by a volume in a multi-dimensional space. This space is defined by axes representing the main parameters that have an influence on the risk. We notably express the importance of including a parameter to consider the specific value of cultural heritage.Then wemore » apply the proposed tool to analyze and compare methods of seismic risk assessment used in Belgium. They differ by the spatial scale of the studied area. Study cases for the whole Belgian Territory and for part of cities in Liege and Mons (Be) aim also to give some sense of the overall risk in Belgium.« less

Scenarios for local seismic effects of Tulcea (Romania) crustal earthquakes, preliminary approach for the seismic microzoning of Tulcea city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florin Bǎlan, Å.žTefan; Apostol, Bogdan; Chitea, F.; Anghelache, Mirela Adriana; Cioflan, Carmen O.; Serban, A.

2010-05-01

nonlinear variations of shear modulus and damping function with state of strain during the earthquakes are expected in superficial soil deposits. Also, the epicenter distributions, the isobats map and 3D image of focal distribution surface will be presented together with the focal mechanisms of the most significant earthquakes which had affected the zone. All these give us a very complete image of the crustal seismic hazard of the Tulcea zone. This study proposes itself to take in consideration only the local effects of the crustal seismic hazard from Tulcea zone, like a preliminary step for the seismic microzoning of Tulcea city. The latter is a broader research which implies the interdisciplinary work between specialists from different fields of research. Finally, by comparing the seismic microzoning map with the vulnerability distribution mapping for each building type and damage distribution maps, the general aspect of the real earthquake effects over the city is figured out. Acknowledgements: The research was performed with financial support from the CNMP within 31036/ 2007 scientific project.

Towards Improved Considerations of Risk in Seismic Design (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sullivan, T. J.

2012-04-01

The aftermath of recent earthquakes is a reminder that seismic risk is a very relevant issue for our communities. Implicit within the seismic design standards currently in place around the world is that minimum acceptable levels of seismic risk will be ensured through design in accordance with the codes. All the same, none of the design standards specify what the minimum acceptable level of seismic risk actually is. Instead, a series of deterministic limit states are set which engineers then demonstrate are satisfied for their structure, typically through the use of elastic dynamic analyses adjusted to account for non-linear response using a set of empirical correction factors. From the early nineties the seismic engineering community has begun to recognise numerous fundamental shortcomings with such seismic design procedures in modern codes. Deficiencies include the use of elastic dynamic analysis for the prediction of inelastic force distributions, the assignment of uniform behaviour factors for structural typologies irrespective of the structural proportions and expected deformation demands, and the assumption that hysteretic properties of a structure do not affect the seismic displacement demands, amongst other things. In light of this a number of possibilities have emerged for improved control of risk through seismic design, with several innovative displacement-based seismic design methods now well developed. For a specific seismic design intensity, such methods provide a more rational means of controlling the response of a structure to satisfy performance limit states. While the development of such methodologies does mark a significant step forward for the control of seismic risk, they do not, on their own, identify the seismic risk of a newly designed structure. In the U.S. a rather elaborate performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework is under development, with the aim of providing seismic loss estimates for new buildings. The PBEE framework

Analysis of the seismicity in the region of Mirovo salt mine after 8 years monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrova, Liliya; Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena; Georgieva, Gergana

2015-04-01

Mirovo salt deposit is situated in the NE part of Bulgaria and 5 kilometers away from the town of Provadiya. The mine is in operation since 1956. The salt is produced by dilution and extraction of the brine to the surface. A system of chambers-pillars is formed within the salt body as a result of the applied technology. The mine is situated in a seismically quiet part of the state. The region is characterized with complex geological structure and several faults. During the last 3 decades a large number of small and moderate earthquakes (M<4.5) are realized in the close vicinity of the salt deposit. Local seismological network (LSN) is deployed in the region to monitor the local seismicity. It consists of 6 three component digital stations. A real-time data transfer from LSN stations to National Data Center (in Sofia) is implemented using the VPN and MAN networks of the Bulgarian Telecommunication Company. Common processing and interpretation of the data from LSN and the national seismic network is performed. Real-time and interactive data processing are performed by the Seismic Network Data Processor (SNDP) software package. More than 700 earthquakes are registered by the LSN within 30km region around the mine during the 8 years monitoring. First we processed the data and compile a catalogue of the earthquakes occur within the studied region (30km around the salt mine). Spatial pattern of seismicity is analyzed. A large number of the seismic events occurred within the northern and north-western part of the salt body. Several earthquakes occurred in close vicinity of the mine. Concerning that the earthquakes could be tectonic and/or induced an attempt is made to find criteria to distinguish natural from induced seismicity. To characterize and distinguish the main processes active in the area we also made waveform and spectral analysis of a number of earthquakes.

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

Performance-Based Seismic Retrofit of Soft-Story Woodframe Buildings Using Energy-Dissipation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jingjing

Low-rise woodframe buildings with disproportionately flexible ground stories represent a significant percentage of the building stock in seismically vulnerable communities in the Western United States. These structures have a readily identifiable structural weakness at the ground level due to an asymmetric distribution of large openings in the perimeter wall lines and to a lack of interior partition walls, resulting in a soft story condition that makes the structure highly susceptible to severe damage or collapse under design-level earthquakes. The conventional approach to retrofitting such structures is to increase the ground story stiffness. An alternate approach is to increase the energy dissipation capacity of the structure via the incorporation of supplemental energy dissipation devices (dampers), thereby relieving the energy dissipation demands on the framing system. Such a retrofit approach is consistent with a Performance-Based Seismic Retrofit (PBSR) philosophy through which multiple performance levels may be targeted. The effectiveness of such a retrofit is presented via examination of the seismic response of a full-scale four-story building that was tested on the outdoor shake table at NEES-UCSD and a full-scale three-story building that was tested using slow pseudo-dynamic hybrid testing at NEES-UB. In addition, a Direct Displacement Design (DDD) methodology was developed as an improvement over current DDD methods by considering torsion, with or without the implementation of damping devices, in an attempt to avoid the computational expense of nonlinear time-history analysis (NLTHA) and thus facilitating widespread application of PBSR in engineering practice.

Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis of the 2014-2015 Bár∂arbunga-Holuhraun Dike Propagation and Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caudron, Corentin; White, Robert S.; Green, Robert G.; Woods, Jennifer; Ágústsdóttir, Thorbjörg; Donaldson, Clare; Greenfield, Tim; Rivalta, Eleonora; Brandsdóttir, Bryndís.

2018-01-01

Magma is transported in brittle rock through dikes and sills. This movement may be accompanied by the release of seismic energy that can be tracked from the Earth's surface. Locating dikes and deciphering their dynamics is therefore of prime importance in understanding and potentially forecasting volcanic eruptions. The Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis (SARA) method aims to track melt propagation using the amplitudes recorded across a seismic network without picking the arrival times of individual earthquake phases. This study validates this methodology by comparing SARA locations (filtered between 2 and 16 Hz) with the earthquake locations (same frequency band) recorded during the 2014-2015 Bár∂arbunga-Holuhraun dike intrusion and eruption in Iceland. Integrating both approaches also provides the opportunity to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of magma migration during the dike intrusion and ensuing eruption. During the intrusion SARA locations correspond remarkably well to the locations of earthquakes. Several exceptions are, however, observed. (1) A low-frequency signal was possibly associated with a subglacial eruption on 23 August. (2) A systematic retreat of the seismicity was also observed to the back of each active segment during stalled phases and was associated with a larger spatial extent of the seismic energy source. This behavior may be controlled by the dike's shape and/or by dike inflation. (3) During the eruption SARA locations consistently focused at the eruptive site. (4) Tremor-rich signal close to ice cauldrons occurred on 3 September. This study demonstrates the power of the SARA methodology, provided robust site amplification; Quality Factors and seismic velocities are available.

Martian seismicity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Roger J.; Grimm, Robert E.

1991-01-01

The design and ultimate success of network seismology experiments on Mars depends on the present level of Martian seismicity. Volcanic and tectonic landforms observed from imaging experiments show that Mars must have been a seismically active planet in the past and there is no reason to discount the notion that Mars is seismically active today but at a lower level of activity. Models are explored for present day Mars seismicity. Depending on the sensitivity and geometry of a seismic network and the attenuation and scattering properties of the interior, it appears that a reasonable number of Martian seismic events would be detected over the period of a decade. The thermoelastic cooling mechanism as estimated is surely a lower bound, and a more refined estimate would take into account specifically the regional cooling of Tharsis and lead to a higher frequency of seismic events.

Quantifying the seismicity on Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yi-Hsuan; Chen, Chien-Chih; Turcotte, Donald L.; Rundle, John B.

2013-07-01

We quantify the seismicity on the island of Taiwan using the frequency-magnitude statistics of earthquakes since 1900. A break in Gutenberg-Richter scaling for large earthquakes in global seismicity has been observed, this break is also observed in our Taiwan study. The seismic data from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network are in good agreement with the Gutenberg-Richter relation taking b ≈ 1 when M < 7. For large earthquakes, M ≥ 7, the seismic data fit Gutenberg-Richter scaling with b ≈ 1.5. If the Gutenberg-Richter scaling for M < 7 earthquakes is extrapolated to larger earthquakes, we would expect a M > 8 earthquake in the study region about every 25 yr. However, our analysis shows a lower frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes so that the expected frequency of M > 8 earthquakes is about 200 yr. The level of seismicity for smaller earthquakes on Taiwan is about 12 times greater than in Southern California and the possibility of a M ≈ 9 earthquake north or south of Taiwan cannot be ruled out. In light of the Fukushima, Japan nuclear disaster, we also discuss the implications of our study for the three operating nuclear power plants on the coast of Taiwan.

An enhancement of NASTRAN for the seismic analysis of structures. [nuclear power plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burroughs, J. W.

1980-01-01

New modules, bulk data cards and DMAP sequence were added to NASTRAN to aid in the seismic analysis of nuclear power plant structures. These allow input consisting of acceleration time histories and result in the generation of acceleration floor response spectra. The resulting system contains numerous user convenience features, as well as being reasonably efficient.

Seismic event near Jarocin (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lizurek, Grzegorz; Plesiewicz, Beata; Wiejacz, Paweł; Wiszniowski, Jan; Trojanowski, Jacek

2013-02-01

The earthquake of magnitude M L = 3:8 (EMSC) took place on Friday, 6 January 2012, north-east of the town of Jarocin in Wielkopolska Region, Poland. The only historical information about past earthquakes in the region was found in the diary from 1824; apart of it, there was a seismic event noticed in the vicinity of Wielkopolska in 1606 (Pagaczewski 1982). The scope of this paper is to describe the 6 January 2012 event in view of instrumental seismology, macroseismic data analysis and known tectonics of the region, which should be useful in future seismic hazard analysis of Poland.

Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessandro, A.; Luzio, D.; D'Anna, G.

2014-09-01

In this paper, we introduce a project for the realization of the first European real-time urban seismic network based on Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS) technology. MEMS accelerometers are a highly enabling technology, and nowadays, the sensitivity and the dynamic range of these sensors are such as to allow the recording of earthquakes of moderate magnitude even at a distance of several tens of kilometers. Moreover, thanks to their low cost and smaller size, MEMS accelerometers can be easily installed in urban areas in order to achieve an urban seismic network constituted by high density of observation points. The network is being implemented in the Acireale Municipality (Sicily, Italy), an area among those with the highest hazard, vulnerability and exposure to the earthquake of the Italian territory. The main objective of the implemented urban network will be to achieve an effective system for post-earthquake rapid disaster assessment. The earthquake recorded, also that with moderate magnitude will be used for the effective seismic microzonation of the area covered by the network. The implemented system will be also used to realize a site-specific earthquakes early warning system.

Seismic Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seleznev, V. S.; Soloviev, V. M.; Emanov, A. F.

The paper is devoted to researches of influence of seismic actions for industrial and civil buildings and people. The seismic actions bring influence directly on the people (vibration actions, force shocks at earthquakes) or indirectly through various build- ings and the constructions and can be strong (be felt by people) and weak (be fixed by sensing devices). The great number of work is devoted to influence of violent seismic actions (first of all of earthquakes) on people and various constructions. This work is devoted to study weak, but long seismic actions on various buildings and people. There is a need to take into account seismic oscillations, acting on the territory, at construction of various buildings on urbanized territories. Essential influence, except for violent earthquakes, man-caused seismic actions: the explosions, seismic noise, emitted by plant facilities and moving transport, radiation from high-rise buildings and constructions under action of a wind, etc. can exert. Materials on increase of man- caused seismicity in a number of regions in Russia, which earlier were not seismic, are presented in the paper. Along with maps of seismic microzoning maps to be built indicating a variation of amplitude spectra of seismic noise within day, months, years. The presence of an information about amplitudes and frequencies of oscillations from possible earthquakes and man-caused oscillations in concrete regions allows carry- ing out soundly designing and construction of industrial and civil housing projects. The construction of buildings even in not seismically dangerous regions, which have one from resonance frequencies coincident on magnitude to frequency of oscillations, emitted in this place by man-caused objects, can end in failure of these buildings and heaviest consequences for the people. The practical examples of detail of engineering- seismological investigation of large industrial and civil housing projects of Siberia territory (hydro power

Vulnerability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taback, I.

1979-01-01

The discussion of vulnerability begins with a description of some of the electrical characteristics of fibers before definiting how vulnerability calculations are done. The vulnerability results secured to date are presented. The discussion touches on post exposure vulnerability. After a description of some shock hazard work now underway, the discussion leads into a description of the planned effort and some preliminary conclusions are presented.

Generalized seismic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Thomas G.

1993-01-01

There is a constant need to be able to solve for enforced motion of structures. Spacecraft need to be qualified for acceleration inputs. Truck cargoes need to be safeguarded from road mishaps. Office buildings need to withstand earthquake shocks. Marine machinery needs to be able to withstand hull shocks. All of these kinds of enforced motions are being grouped together under the heading of seismic inputs. Attempts have been made to cope with this problem over the years and they usually have ended up with some limiting or compromise conditions. The crudest approach was to limit the problem to acceleration occurring only at a base of a structure, constrained to be rigid. The analyst would assign arbitrarily outsized masses to base points. He would then calculate the magnitude of force to apply to the base mass (or masses) in order to produce the specified acceleration. He would of necessity have to sacrifice the determination of stresses in the vicinity of the base, because of the artificial nature of the input forces. The author followed the lead of John M. Biggs by using relative coordinates for a rigid base in a 1975 paper, and again in a 1981 paper . This method of relative coordinates was extended and made operational as DMAP ALTER packets to rigid formats 9, 10, 11, and 12 under contract N60921-82-C-0128. This method was presented at the twelfth NASTRAN Colloquium. Another analyst in the field developed a method that computed the forces from enforced motion then applied them as a forcing to the remaining unknowns after the knowns were partitioned off. The method was translated into DMAP ALTER's but was never made operational. All of this activity jelled into the current effort. Much thought was invested in working out ways to unshakle the analysis of enforced motions from the limitations that persisted.

Generalized seismic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, Thomas G.

1993-09-01

There is a constant need to be able to solve for enforced motion of structures. Spacecraft need to be qualified for acceleration inputs. Truck cargoes need to be safeguarded from road mishaps. Office buildings need to withstand earthquake shocks. Marine machinery needs to be able to withstand hull shocks. All of these kinds of enforced motions are being grouped together under the heading of seismic inputs. Attempts have been made to cope with this problem over the years and they usually have ended up with some limiting or compromise conditions. The crudest approach was to limit the problem to acceleration occurring only at a base of a structure, constrained to be rigid. The analyst would assign arbitrarily outsized masses to base points. He would then calculate the magnitude of force to apply to the base mass (or masses) in order to produce the specified acceleration. He would of necessity have to sacrifice the determination of stresses in the vicinity of the base, because of the artificial nature of the input forces. The author followed the lead of John M. Biggs by using relative coordinates for a rigid base in a 1975 paper, and again in a 1981 paper . This method of relative coordinates was extended and made operational as DMAP ALTER packets to rigid formats 9, 10, 11, and 12 under contract N60921-82-C-0128. This method was presented at the twelfth NASTRAN Colloquium. Another analyst in the field developed a method that computed the forces from enforced motion then applied them as a forcing to the remaining unknowns after the knowns were partitioned off. The method was translated into DMAP ALTER's but was never made operational. All of this activity jelled into the current effort. Much thought was invested in working out ways to unshakle the analysis of enforced motions from the limitations that persisted.

Improved moving window cross-spectral analysis for resolving large temporal seismic velocity changes in permafrost

DOE PAGES

James, S. R.; Knox, H. A.; Abbott, R. E.; ...

2017-04-13

Cross correlations of seismic noise can potentially record large changes in subsurface velocity due to permafrost dynamics and be valuable for long-term Arctic monitoring. We applied seismic interferometry, using moving window cross-spectral analysis (MWCS), to 2 years of ambient noise data recorded in central Alaska to investigate whether seismic noise could be used to quantify relative velocity changes due to seasonal active-layer dynamics. The large velocity changes (>75%) between frozen and thawed soil caused prevalent cycle-skipping which made the method unusable in this setting. We developed an improved MWCS procedure which uses a moving reference to measure daily velocity variationsmore » that are then accumulated to recover the full seasonal change. This approach reduced cycle-skipping and recovered a seasonal trend that corresponded well with the timing of active-layer freeze and thaw. Lastly, this improvement opens the possibility of measuring large velocity changes by using MWCS and permafrost monitoring by using ambient noise.« less

Seismic experiment ross ice shelf 1990/91: Characteristics of the seismic reflection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

1993-01-01

The Transantarctic Mountains, with a length of 3000-3500 km and elevations of up to 4500 m, are one of the major Cenozoic mountain ranges in the world and are by far the most striking example of rift-shoulder mountains. Over the 1990-1991 austral summer Seismic Experiment Ross Ice Shelf (SERIS) was carried out across the Transantarctic Mountain front, between latitudes 82 degrees to 83 degrees S, in order to investigate the transition zone between the rifted area of the Ross Embayment and the uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. This experiment involved a 140 km long seismic reflection profile together with a 96 km long coincident wide-angle reflection/refraction profile. Gravity and relative elevation (using barometric pressure) were also measured along the profile. The primary purpose was to examine the boundary between the rift system and the uplifted rift margin (represented by the Transantarctic Mountains) using modern multi-channel crustal reflection/refraction techniques. The results provide insight into crustal structure across the plate boundary. SERIS also represented one of the first large-scale and modern multi-channel seismic experiments in the remote interior of Antarctica. As such, the project was designed to test different seismic acquisition techniques which will be involved in future seismic exploration of the continent. This report describes the results from the analysis of the acquisition tests as well as detailing some of the characteristics of the reflection seismic data. (auths.)

Areal distribution of sedimentary facies determined from seismic facies analysis and models of modern depositional systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seramur, K.C.; Powell, R.D.; Carpenter, P.J.

1988-02-01

Seismic facies analysis was applied to 3.5-kHz single-channel analog reflection profiles of the sediment fill within Muir Inlet, Glacier Bay, southeast Alaska. Nine sedimentary facies have been interpreted from seven seismic facies identified on the profiles. The interpretations are based on reflection characteristics and structural features of the seismic facies. The following reflection characteristics and structural features are used: reflector spacing, amplitude and continuity of reflections, internal reflection configurations, attitude of reflection terminations at a facies boundary, body geometry of a facies, and the architectural associations of seismic facies within each basin. The depositional systems are reconstructed by determining themore » paleotopography, bedding patterns, sedimentary facies, and modes of deposition within the basin. Muir Inlet is a recently deglaciated fjord for which successive glacier terminus positions and consequent rates of glacial retreat are known. In this environment the depositional processes and sediment characteristics vary with distance from a glacier terminus, such that during a retreat a record of these variations is preserved in the aggrading sediment fill. Sedimentary facies within the basins of lower Muir Inlet are correlated with observed depositional processes near the present glacier terminus in the upper inlet. The areal distribution of sedimentary facies within the basins is interpreted using the seismic facies architecture and inferences from known sediment characteristics proximal to present glacier termini.« less

Tunnel Detection Using Seismic Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R.; Park, C. B.; Xia, J.; Ivanov, J.; Steeples, D. W.; Ryden, N.; Ballard, R. F.; Llopis, J. L.; Anderson, T. S.; Moran, M. L.; Ketcham, S. A.

2006-05-01

Surface seismic methods have shown great promise for use in detecting clandestine tunnels in areas where unauthorized movement beneath secure boundaries have been or are a matter of concern for authorities. Unauthorized infiltration beneath national borders and into or out of secure facilities is possible at many sites by tunneling. Developments in acquisition, processing, and analysis techniques using multi-channel seismic imaging have opened the door to a vast number of near-surface applications including anomaly detection and delineation, specifically tunnels. Body waves have great potential based on modeling and very preliminary empirical studies trying to capitalize on diffracted energy. A primary limitation of all seismic energy is the natural attenuation of high-frequency energy by earth materials and the difficulty in transmitting a high- amplitude source pulse with a broad spectrum above 500 Hz into the earth. Surface waves have shown great potential since the development of multi-channel analysis methods (e.g., MASW). Both shear-wave velocity and backscatter energy from surface waves have been shown through modeling and empirical studies to have great promise in detecting the presence of anomalies, such as tunnels. Success in developing and evaluating various seismic approaches for detecting tunnels relies on investigations at known tunnel locations, in a variety of geologic settings, employing a wide range of seismic methods, and targeting a range of uniquely different tunnel geometries, characteristics, and host lithologies. Body-wave research at the Moffat tunnels in Winter Park, Colorado, provided well-defined diffraction-looking events that correlated with the subsurface location of the tunnel complex. Natural voids related to karst have been studied in Kansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida using shear-wave velocity imaging techniques based on the MASW approach. Manmade tunnels, culverts, and crawl spaces have been the target of multi-modal analysis

A Vulnerability-Benefit Analysis of Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delman, E. M.; Stephenson, S. R.; Davis, S. J.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2015-12-01

Although we can anticipate continued improvements in our understanding of future climate impacts, the central challenge of climate change is not scientific, but rather political and economic. In particular, international climate negotiations center on how to share the burden of uncertain mitigation and adaptation costs. We expose the relative economic interests of different countries by assessing and comparing their vulnerability to climate impacts and the economic benefits they derive from the fossil fuel-based energy system. Vulnerability refers to the propensity of humans and their assets to suffer when impacted by hazards, and we draw upon the results from a number of prior studies that have quantified vulnerability using multivariate indices. As a proxy for benefit, we average CO2 related to each country's extraction of fossil fuels, production of CO2 emissions, and consumption of goods and services (Davis et al., 2011), which should reflect benefits accrued in proportion to national economic dependence on fossil fuels. We define a nondimensional vulnerability-benefit ratio for each nation and find a large range across countries. In general, we confirm that developed and emerging economies such as the U.S., Western Europe, and China rely heavily on fossil fuels and have substantial resources to respond to the impacts of climate change, while smaller, less-developed economies such as Sierra Leone and Vanuatu benefit little from current CO2 emissions and are much more vulnerable to adverse climate impacts. In addition, we identify some countries with a high vulnerability and benefit, such as Iraq and Nigeria; conversely, some nations exhibit both a low vulnerability and benefit, such as New Zealand. In most cases, the ratios reflect the nature of energy-climate policies in each country, although certain nations - such as the United Kingdom and France - assume a level of responsibility incongruous with their ratio and commit to mitigation policy despite

An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

2016-04-01

and lateral (or horizontal) vulnerability could be very useful; generally parametric vulnerability methods only take into account the protection degree offered by the overlying lithology, considering a vertical travel pathway for the contaminant. These methods normally neglect horizontal pathway (pollution transport in groundwater according to the hydraulic gradient), so we can have an underestimation of the possible vulnerability. The distinction, the analysis and the definition of different types of vulnerability might be positive to stimulate discussion and have a number of advantages, such as: - to improve the clarity of the conditions of employment of a method, benefiting above all end-users and stakeholders; - to improve the ability to compare methods for the assessment of the degree of vulnerability; - to improve the ability to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Urban MEMS based seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Alessandro, Antonino; Luzio, Dario; D'Anna, Giuseppe

2014-05-01

Life losses following disastrous earthquake depends mainly by the building vulnerability, intensity of shaking and timeliness of rescue operations. In recent decades, the increase in population and industrial density has significantly increased the exposure to earthquakes of urban areas. The potential impact of a strong earthquake on a town center can be reduced by timely and correct actions of the emergency management centers. A real time urban seismic network can drastically reduce casualties immediately following a strong earthquake, by timely providing information about the distribution of the ground shaking level. Emergency management centers, with functions in the immediate post-earthquake period, could be use this information to allocate and prioritize resources to minimize loss of human life. However, due to the high charges of the seismological instrumentation, the realization of an urban seismic network, which may allow reducing the rate of fatalities, has not been achieved. Recent technological developments in MEMS (Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems) technology could allow today the realization of a high-density urban seismic network for post-earthquakes rapid disaster assessment, suitable for the earthquake effects mitigation. In the 1990s, MEMS accelerometers revolutionized the automotive-airbag system industry and are today widely used in laptops, games controllers and mobile phones. Due to their great commercial successes, the research into and development of MEMS accelerometers are actively pursued around the world. Nowadays, the sensitivity and dynamics of these sensors are such to allow accurate recording of earthquakes with moderate to strong magnitude. Due to their low cost and small size, the MEMS accelerometers may be employed for the realization of high-density seismic networks. The MEMS accelerometers could be installed inside sensitive places (high vulnerability and exposure), such as schools, hospitals, public buildings and places of