Sample records for spot market prices

  1. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  2. Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Haesun

    2005-12-01

    Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear

  3. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  4. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  5. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Quotations in bona fide spot markets. 27.96 Section 27... Differences § 27.96 Quotations in bona fide spot markets. The price or value and differences between the price... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in...

  6. An analysis of electricity price behavior when the market in California was dysfunctional

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yoo-Soo

    The electricity market in California worked well for the first two years after restructuring, but in the summer of 2000 there were frequent high price spikes and then persistently high prices during the winter and the spring of 2001. This research develops econometric models to explain the behavior of the spot and forward prices for electricity and the relationship between them when the market in California was dysfunctional. The first results demonstrate that the high spot prices in the day-ahead market during the summer of 2000 were caused by changes in the bid behavior of buyers as well as by the offer behavior of sellers. After the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) declared that these high spot prices were "unjust and unreasonable", the FERC approved the payment of refunds to customers in California but not in other areas within the Western Inter-Connection (WECC). However, the results of a Vector Auto-Regressive model (VAR) show that the high spot prices in California were transferred immediately to other states in the WECC and the spot prices at different trading hubs belong to a single market. After the intervention by FERC in December 2000, spot prices and forward prices of electricity were unusually high. Estimated distributed lag models, using both monthly and daily data, show that there were strong positive relationships between the price shocks for electricity and natural gas in the spot markets and the forward prices for electricity. Risk premiums in the forward prices for electricity were estimated and the results show that the price shocks for electricity after FERC's intervention were the primary cause of the high forward prices. The main conclusions for regulatory policy are (1) it is virtually impossible to contain the effects of a dysfunctional electricity market to a single region because other regions are linked through the electrical grid, and (2) it is essential to intervene immediately and effectively when the spot prices have been

  7. 78 FR 9330 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-08

    ... Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed rule. SUMMARY: The... bona fide cotton spot markets in order to assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and... spot prices of cotton marketed in Kansas and Virginia. AMS is also proposing to amend references to the...

  8. Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices, An

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three most recent winters with futures prices as they evolve from April through the following February, when trading for the March contract ends.

  9. The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

    2018-01-01

    The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

  10. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  11. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    PubMed

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  12. Spot market runup over; buyers anticipate soft summer

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Morris, G.D.L.

    Spot methanol markets spiked to 38 cts/gal late last month as a result of planned and unplanned outages. Gulf Coast markets have already retreated from those highs, however, as traders and consumers anticipate more plentiful supply and lower prices by midsummer. May postings are likely to roll over at April levels of 37 cts-39 cts/gal, and late April notices that producers would no longer honor off-list discounts are being disregarded. The trigger for the price runup was a production snag a week before the recent fire at Hoechst Celanese`s Clear Lake, TX acetic acid plant. The company reports methanol ismore » back on-line. In addition, Cytec`s Fortier, LA methanol plant is in a two-month turnaround, and Texaco`s Delaware City, DE plant has been shut. Methanex (Vancouver) was taking output from those two units and was said to be in the spot market along with Hoechst Celanese`s partner, Valero, which exacerbated the spike. Lyondell is just restarting methanol after a maintenance outage. Although Texaco says the Delaware City plant is off-line for six months, market watchers do not expect it to restart soon, based on its cost structure at current prices. Quantum was planning a two-month maintenance and expansion project at its Deer Park, TX methanol and acetic acid plant, but in light of the Hoechst Celanese acetic outage Quantum may delay that project. Midyear is the startup target for the new BP Sterling plant at Texas City, TX.« less

  13. Optimum electric utility spot price determinations for small power producing facilities operating under PURPA provisions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ghoudjehbaklou, H.; Puttgen, H.B.

    This paper outlines an optimum spot price determination procedure in the general context of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, PURPA, provisions. PURPA stipulates that local utilities must offer to purchase all available excess electric energy from Qualifying Facilities, QF, at fair market prices. As a direct consequence of these PURPA regulations, a growing number of owners are installing power producing facilities and optimize their operational schedules to minimize their utility related costs or, in some cases, actually maximize their revenues from energy sales to the local utility. In turn, the utility strives to use spot prices which maximize itsmore » revenues from any given Small Power Producing Facility, SPPF, a schedule while respecting the general regulatory and contractual framework. the proposed optimum spot price determination procedure fully models the SPPF operation, it enforces the contractual and regulatory restrictions, and it ensures the uniqueness of the optimum SPPF schedule.« less

  14. Optimum electric utility spot price determinations for small power producing facilities operating under PURPA provisions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ghoudjehbaklou, H.; Puttgen, H.B.

    The present paper outlines an optimum spot price determination procedure in the general context of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, PURPA, provisions. PURPA stipulates that local utilities must offer to purchase all available excess electric energy from Qualifying Facilities, QF, at fair market prices. As a direct consequence of these PURPA regulations, a growing number of owners are installing power producing facilities and optimize their operational schedules to minimize their utility related costs or, in some cases, actually maximize their revenues from energy sales to the local utility. In turn, the utility will strive to use spot prices whichmore » maximize its revenues from any given Small Power Producing Facility, SPPF, schedule while respecting the general regulatory and contractual framework. The proposed optimum spot price determination procedure fully models the SPPF operation, it enforces the contractual and regulatory restrictions, and it ensures the uniqueness of the optimum SPPF schedule.« less

  15. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  16. Feast or famine: 1992 spot market review

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    There was nothing temperate about the uranium spot market in 1992. It was a year of extremes. Demand took off at a brisk pace early in the year as utilities, enticed by low U3O8 prices and interest rates, stepped up their discretionary purchases. With the NUKEM price range sinking to an all-time low of US$6.75-7.70 in November 1991, utilities reckoned that prices had bottomed out and decided to buy and hold material. Indeed, the upper end of NUKEM's range remained below $8.00 per lb for much of the first half of 1992. The main cause of low prices was themore » flood of imports from the crumbling Soviet Union and its successor, the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]. The CIS republics quickly embraced a free-market philosophy to boost their faltering economies, and several hoped to use uranium as a source of badly-needed hard currency. But they were about to get a harsh introduction to capitalism. It came in the form of government intervention, in both the US and Europe. In May, the US Department of Commerce made its preliminary determination that the uranium-producing republics of the CIS were selling material in the US at less than fair market value. The antidumping case was eventually settled in October when the CIS republics [Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan] signed suspension agreements subjecting CIS origin uranium to price and quantity quotas in the US.« less

  17. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  18. 7 CFR 27.97 - Ascertaining the accuracy of price quotations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... cotton in each spot market shall be responsible for providing accurate and timely price, quality, and... ascertaining the accuracy of the price quotations in each designated spot market. The Cotton Division will... will collect and analyze pertinent information on the prices and values of spot cotton from each spot...

  19. Allowance market pricing indicators

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Miller, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    Regardless of whether buyers and sellers rely on one allowance price indicator or a combination of several, the publication of price indicators has facilitated trading in the SO{sub 2} allowance market. Buyers and sellers feel more comfortable with a price benchmark against which to measure their actions; liquidity has increased; and transactions are easier to conclude. At this market`s present stage of development, five price indicators are worthy of discussion: EPA Allowance Auctions; Compliance Strategies Review`s EATX; Utility Environment Report`s price range; Cantor Fitzgerald`s Allowance Price Indicators; and Emissions Exchange Corporation`s Exchange Values. But experience in other markets indicates thatmore » (1) others will be created as the market develops, and (2) all published price indicators will tend to converge as time passes.« less

  20. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93... REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.93 Bona fide spot markets. The following markets have been determined, after investigation, and are hereby...

  1. Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Mei; Wang, Yaqi; Gao, Cuixia

    2016-11-01

    Fluctuations in prices of natural gas significantly affect global economy. Therefore, the research on the characteristics of natural gas price fluctuations, turning points and its influencing cycle on the subsequent price series is of great significance. Global natural gas trade concentrates on three regional markets: the North American market, the European market and the Asia-Pacific market, with North America having the most developed natural gas financial market. In addition, perfect legal supervision and coordinated regulations make the North American market more open and more competitive. This paper focuses on the North American natural gas market specifically. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price time series is converted to a visibility graph network which provides a new direction for macro analysis of time series, and several indicators are investigated: degree and degree distribution, the average shortest path length and community structure. The internal mechanisms underlying price fluctuations are explored through the indicators. The results show that the natural gas prices visibility graph network (NGP-VGN) is of small-world and scale-free properties simultaneously. After random rearrangement of original price time series, the degree distribution of network becomes exponential distribution, different from the original ones. This means that, the original price time series is of long-range negative correlation fractal characteristic. In addition, nodes with large degree correspond to significant geopolitical or economic events. Communities correspond to time cycles in visibility graph network. The cycles of time series and the impact scope of hubs can be found by community structure partition.

  2. Pricing and Marketing Online Information Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Sheila Anne Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the pricing of online information in the broader context of marketing. Highlights include changes in the marketing context and issues of value relating to price; other reviews of online pricing; trends affecting price, including public sector involvement and the Internet; promotional pricing; price discrimination; and price aggregation…

  3. Option price and market instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2017-04-01

    An option pricing formula, for which the price of an option depends on both the value of the underlying security as well as the velocity of the security, has been proposed in Baaquie and Yang (2014). The FX (foreign exchange) options price was empirically studied in Baaquie et al., (2014), and it was found that the model in general provides an excellent fit for all strike prices with a fixed model parameters-unlike the Black-Scholes option price Hull and White (1987) that requires the empirically determined implied volatility surface to fit the option data. The option price proposed in Baaquie and Cao Yang (2014) did not fit the data during the crisis of 2007-2008. We make a hypothesis that the failure of the option price to fit data is an indication of the market's large deviation from its near equilibrium behavior due to the market's instability. Furthermore, our indicator of market's instability is shown to be more accurate than the option's observed volatility. The market prices of the FX option for various currencies are studied in the light of our hypothesis.

  4. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly,more » our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.« less

  5. Dual pricing algorithm in ISO markets

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Richard P.; Castillo, Anya; Eldridge, Brent; ...

    2016-10-10

    The challenge to create efficient market clearing prices in centralized day-ahead electricity markets arises from inherent non-convexities in unit commitment problems. When this aspect is ignored, marginal prices may result in economic losses to market participants who are part of the welfare maximizing solution. In this essay, we present an axiomatic approach to efficient prices and cost allocation for a revenue neutral and non-confiscatory day-ahead market. Current cost allocation practices do not adequately attribute costs based on transparent cost causation criteria. Instead we propose an ex post multi-part pricing scheme, which we refer to as the Dual Pricing Algorithm. Lastly,more » our approach can be incorporated into current dayahead markets without altering the market equilibrium.« less

  6. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94... CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON FUTURES LEGISLATION Regulations Spot Markets § 27.94 Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. The following are designated as spot markets for...

  7. Flexible LNG supply, storage and price formation in a global natural gas market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, Mark Hanley

    The body of work included in this dissertation explores the interaction of the growing, flexible liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade with the fundamentals of pipeline gas supply, gas storage, and gas consumption. By nature of its uses---largely for residential heating and electric power generation---the consumption of natural gas is highly variable both seasonally and on less predictable daily and weekly timescales. Flexible LNG trade will interconnect previously isolated regional gas markets, each with non-correlated variability in gas demand, differing gas storage costs, and heterogeneous institutional structures. The dissertation employs a series of analytical models to address key issues that will affect the expansion of the LNG trade and the implications for gas prices, investment and energy policy. First, I employ an optimization model to evaluate the fundamentals of seasonal LNG swing between markets with non-correlated gas demand (the U.S. and Europe). The model provides insights about the interaction of LNG trade with gas storage and price formation in interconnected regional markets. I then explore how random (stochastic) variability in gas demand will drive spot cargo movements and covariation in regional gas prices. Finally, I analyze the different institutional structures of the gas markets in the U.S. and Europe and consider how managed gas markets in Europe---without a competitive wholesale gas market---may effectively "export" supply and price volatility to countries with more competitive gas markets, such as the U.S.

  8. Decomposing intraday dependence in currency markets: evidence from the AUD/USD spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Ellis, Craig A.; Hogan, Warren P.

    2005-07-01

    The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard deviation, or both of these simultaneously, values for the range, standard deviation and local Hurst exponent are recorded and analyzed separately. To illustrate this approach, a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar provides evidence of the returns distribution across the 24-hour trading ‘day’, with time-varying dependence and volatility clearly aligning with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

  9. Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

    The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

  10. Insurer Market Power Lowers Prices In Numerous Concentrated Provider Markets.

    PubMed

    Scheffler, Richard M; Arnold, Daniel R

    2017-09-01

    Using prices of hospital admissions and visits to five types of physicians, we analyzed how provider and insurer market concentration-as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)-interact and are correlated with prices. We found evidence that in the range of the Department of Justice's and Federal Trade Commission's definition of a moderately concentrated market (HHI of 1,500-2,500), insurers have the bargaining power to reduce provider prices in highly concentrated provider markets. In particular, hospital admission prices were 5 percent lower and cardiologist, radiologist, and hematologist/oncologist visit prices were 4 percent, 7 percent, and 19 percent lower, respectively, in markets with high provider concentration and insurer HHI above 2,000, compared to such markets with insurer HHI below 2,000. We did not find evidence that high insurer concentration reduced visit prices for primary care physicians or orthopedists, however. The policy dilemma that arises from our findings is that there are no insurer market mechanisms that will pass a portion of these price reductions on to consumers in the form of lower premiums. Large purchasers of health insurance such as state and federal governments, as well as the use of regulatory approaches, could provide a solution. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  11. The inevitable commoditization of electric power markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mango, B.; Woodley, J.A.C.

    1994-11-01

    As competition grows between electric suppliers it is inevitable that a spot market in electricity will evolve. The impetus is the market demand for greater asset productivity. With prices revealed, a commodity market will follow. With spot and commodity markets will come the power to reallocate risk and make capital investment more productive. Given price volatility, separate markets will develop for near- and long-term hedging instruments.

  12. The volatility of stock market prices.

    PubMed

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-02

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained.

  13. Price-skid boosts propane sales

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ellis, P.

    1979-02-05

    Lower propane costs have prompted industrial users to switch from natural gas, although dealers are cautioning that they are gambling on an unstable price competition. Analysis of price and use trends indicates that the propane market is growing where users have relied on the interstate gas market, which will be experiencing incremental price increases. Those buying propane on the spot market will get the best prices because the propane market is now glutted as a result of conservation and large gas supplies. A further drop in propane price is not anticipated because producers would lack incentive to extract propane frommore » higher-priced natural gas unless it becomes justified by demand for unleaded gas, of which propane is a by-product.« less

  14. Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

    This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing

  15. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  16. Effects of new export rules, a spotted owl plan, and recession on timber prices and shipments from the Douglas-fir region.

    Treesearch

    Donald F. Flora; Wendy J. McGInnls

    1992-01-01

    Several recently emplaced and potential Northwest timber policies are causing considerable market turbulence. Estimated were price and volume changes induced by three supply-side policies (a state-log export embargo, forest replanning, and spotted owl reservations) and the demand slide of 1990-91. Impacts were gauged separately and together by using a four-sector model...

  17. [Competition and prices in the Mexican pharmaceutical market].

    PubMed

    Molina-Salazar, Raúl E; González-Marín, Eloy; Carbajal-de Nova, Carolina

    2008-01-01

    The forms of market competition define prices. The pharmaceutical market contains submarkets with different levels of competition; on the one hand are the innovating products with patents, and on the other, generic products with or without trade names. Innovating medicines generally have monopolistic prices, but when the patents expire prices drop because of competition from therapeutic alternatives. The trade name makes it easier to maintain monopolistic prices. In Mexico, medicine prices in the private market are high--according to aggregated estimates and prices for specific medicines--which reflect the limitations of pharmaceutical market competition and the power of the trade name. The public segment enjoys competitive prices using the WHO strategy for essential medicines on the basis of the Essential List.

  18. An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

    2008-02-01

    This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

  19. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator, which...

  20. 78 FR 25181 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-30

    ...-AD26 Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing... regulation that specifies which states compose bona fide cotton spot markets in order to assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and Promotion Act. Updated bona fide spot market definitions allow for...

  1. White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Peter M.

    The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

  2. 7 CFR 27.95 - Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations. 27.95 Section 27.95 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE... and Differences § 27.95 Spot markets to conform to Act and regulations. Every bona fide spot market...

  3. 7 CFR 5.2 - Marketing season average price data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Marketing season average price data. 5.2 Section 5.2 Agriculture Office of the Secretary of Agriculture DETERMINATION OF PARITY PRICES § 5.2 Marketing season... adjusted base prices and, therefore, marketing season average prices will be used. An allowance for any...

  4. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  5. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  6. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable price...

  7. Tiered co-payments, pricing, and demand in reference price markets for pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Herr, Annika; Suppliet, Moritz

    2017-12-01

    Health insurance companies curb price-insensitive behavior and the moral hazard of insureds by means of cost-sharing, such as tiered co-payments or reference pricing in drug markets. This paper evaluates the effect of price limits - below which drugs are exempt from co-payments - on prices and on demand. First, using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that the new policy decreases prices by 5 percent for generics and increases prices by 4 percent for brand-name drugs in the German reference price market. Second, estimating a nested-logit demand model, we show that consumers appreciate co-payment exempt drugs and calculate lower price elasticities for brand-name drugs than for generics. This explains the different price responses of brand-name and generic drugs and shows that price-related co-payment tiers are an effective tool to steer demand to low-priced drugs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture...

  9. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  10. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Net market price. 1220.115 Section 1220.115...

  11. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  12. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the 'big ones'.

    PubMed

    Tsikliras, Athanassios C; Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing.

  13. How Market Structure Drives Commodity Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Saad, David

    To understand how market structure drives commodity price trends with respect to resource availability we introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point marking the disappearance of excess producers. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities. This work is supported by Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (Grant Numbers 604512, 605813, and 16322616) and the Leverhulme Trust RPG-2013-48.

  14. Measuring Prices in Health Care Markets Using Commercial Claims Data.

    PubMed

    Neprash, Hannah T; Wallace, Jacob; Chernew, Michael E; McWilliams, J Michael

    2015-12-01

    To compare methods of price measurement in health care markets. Truven Health Analytics MarketScan commercial claims. We constructed medical prices indices using three approaches: (1) a "sentinel" service approach based on a single common service in a specific clinical domain, (2) a market basket approach, and (3) a spending decomposition approach. We constructed indices at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level and estimated correlations between and within them. Price indices using a spending decomposition approach were strongly and positively correlated with indices constructed from broad market baskets of common services (r > 0.95). Prices of single common services exhibited weak to moderate correlations with each other and other measures. Market-level price measures that reflect broad sets of services are likely to rank markets similarly. Price indices relying on individual sentinel services may be more appropriate for examining specialty- or service-specific drivers of prices. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  15. Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.

    2004-07-01

    There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource andmore » are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.« less

  16. Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hikspoors, Samuel

    The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

  17. Carbon Prices: Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa, Rita Mafalda Dionisio de

    Carbon markets' goal is to promote the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases where it is most cost-efficient. This makes the price of the tradable good - carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) - a key variable in management and risk decisions, in markets related to activities connected with the burning of fossil fuels, such as power generation. This work aims to improve the analysis of carbon prices' dynamics, considering the possibility of multidirectional effects between prices of CO2e, energy (primary and final), offsets licenses and the economy performance, in various frequencies. The two main research questions are: (i) what drives carbon price variations? (ii) what variations do carbon prices drive? We used two comple-mentary methodologies: (a) a vector autoregression model (of common use in macroeconomics and financial markets but not in carbon-energy relations), which allows the analysis of causality and of impulse-response functions of daily prices; and (b) an innovative multivariate wavelet analysis, which allows us to understand the relationship and causal link between the variables in the time and frequency dimensions, particularly in longer cycles (4 8 and 8 20 months), not perceived in previous studies. As case studies we considered the European (EU ETS) and Califor-nia (AB32) carbon markets. This is the first research to present the analysis of the referred US market. The analysis covers the 2008-2013 period, intentionally excluding the EU ETS phase I, for greater consistency of results. Results suggest that the economy and electricity drive the price of European carbon, while gas and oil have a greater role in California. So, there is a greater influence of final energy prices in the most mature market. We also observe that the price of CERs does not affect the European carbon price. On the other hand, this study shows for the first time that carbon prices have impacts on electricity prices over longer cycles (8 20 months) and in coal over short

  18. A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

    2010-08-01

    We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

  19. 7 CFR 1437.11 - Average market price and payment factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Average market price and payment factors. 1437.11... ASSISTANCE PROGRAM General Provisions § 1437.11 Average market price and payment factors. (a) An average... average market price by the applicable payment factor (i.e., harvested, unharvested, or prevented planting...

  20. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  1. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  2. High and varying prices for privately insured patients underscore hospital market power.

    PubMed

    White, Chapin; Bond, Amelia M; Reschovsky, James D

    2013-09-01

    Across 13 selected U.S. metropolitan areas, hospital prices for privately insured patients are much higher than Medicare payment rates and vary widely across and within markets, according to a study by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC) based on claims data for about 590,000 active and retired nonelderly autoworkers and their dependents. Across the 13 communities, aver­age hospital prices for privately insured patients are about one-and-a-half times Medicare rates for inpatient care and two times what Medicare pays for outpa­tient care. Within individual communities, prices vary widely, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid 60 percent more for inpatient services than the lowest-priced hospital. The price gap within markets is even greater for hospital outpatient care, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid nearly double the lowest-priced hospital. In contrast to the wide variation in hospital prices for pri­vately insured patients across and within markets, prices for primary care physi­cian services generally are close to Medicare rates and vary little within markets. Prices for specialist physician services, however, are higher relative to Medicare and vary more across and within markets. Of the 13 markets, five are in Michigan, which has an unusually concentrated private insurance market, with one insurer commanding a 70-percent market share. Despite the presence of a dominant insurer, almost all Michigan hospi­tals command prices that are higher than Medicare, and some hospitals com­mand prices that are twice what Medicare pays. In the eight markets outside of Michigan, private insurers generally pay even higher hospital prices, with even wider gaps between high- and low-priced hospitals. The variation in hospital and specialist physician prices within communities underscores that some hospitals and physicians have significant market power to command high prices, even in markets with a dominant insurer.

  3. Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

  4. Improved structural pricing model for the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosadi, D.; Muslim

    2017-12-01

    Shariah financial products are currently developing in Indonesia financial market. One of the most important products is called as Sukuk which is commonly referred to as "sharia compliant" bonds. The type of Sukuk that have been widely traded in Indonesia until now are Sukuk Ijarah and Sukuk Mudharabah. In [1], we discuss various models for the price of the fixed-non-callable Sukuk Ijarah and provide the empirical studies using data from Indonesia Bonds market. We found that the structural model considered in [1] cannot model the market price empirically well. In this paper, we consider the improved model and show that it performs well for modelling the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah.

  5. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the ‘big ones’

    PubMed Central

    Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing. PMID:25392754

  6. The Price-Concentration Relationship in Early Residential Solar Third-Party Markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pless, Jacquelyn; Langheim, Ria; Machak, Christina

    The market for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States has experienced tremendous growth over the past decade, with installed capacity more than doubling between 2014 and 2016 alone (SEIA, 2016). As the residential market continues to grow, it prompts new questions about the nature of competition between solar installers and how this competition, or lack thereof, affects the prices consumers are paying. It is often assumed that more competition leads to lower prices, but this is not universally true. For example, some studies have shown that factors such as brand loyalty could lead to a negative relationshipmore » between concentration and price in imperfectly competitive markets (Borenstein, 1985; Holmes, 1989). As such, the relationship between prices and market concentration is an open empirical question since theory could predict either a positive or negative relationship. Determining a relationship between prices and market concentration is challenging for several reasons. Most significantly, prices and market structure are simultaneously determined by each other -- the amount of competition a seller faces influences the price they can command, and prices determine a seller's market share. Previous studies have examined recent PV pricing trends over time and between markets (Davidson et al., 2015a; Davidson and Margolis 2015b; Nemet et al., 2016; Gillingham et al., 2014; Barbose and Darghouth 2015). While these studies of solar PV pricing are able to determine correlations between prices and market factors, they have not satisfactorily proven causation. Thus, to the best of our knowledge, there is little work to date that focuses on identifying the causal relationship between market structure and the prices paid by consumers. We use a unique dataset on third-party owned contract terms for the residential solar PV market in the San Diego Gas and Electricity service territory to better understand this relationship. Surprisingly, we

  7. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaotao; Ping, Jing; Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China's stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed.

  8. Essays on microgrids, asymmetric pricing and market power in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo Prete, Chiara

    This dissertation presents four studies of the electricity industry. The first and second essays use economic-engineering models to assess different aspects of microgrid penetration in regional electricity markets, while the last two studies contain empirical analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 develops a framework to quantify economic, environmental, efficiency and reliability impacts of different power production scenarios in a regional system, focusing on the interaction of microgrids with the existing transmission and distribution grid. The setting is the regional network formed by Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. The study presents simulations of power market outcomes under various policies and levels of microgrid penetration, and evaluates them using a diverse set of metrics. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between a microgrid and a regulated electric utility in a regional electricity market. I consider the interaction among the utility, the microgrid developer and consumers in the framework of cooperative game theory (assuming exchangeable utility), and use regional market models to simulate scenarios in which microgrid introduction may or may not be socially beneficial. Under the assumptions of this chapter, customer participation is essential to the development of socially beneficial microgrids, while the utility has little or no gain from it. Discussed incentives to avoid that utilities block microgrid entry include additional revenue drivers related to microgrid connection, decoupling and performance-based mechanisms targeted at service quality. When prices are below marginal costs of utility provided power, microgrid development may be socially beneficial, but unprofitable for microgrid customers and its developer. By imposing lower charges and higher remuneration for its services, the regulator could ensure that microgrid value is positive, without adversely impacting the utility

  9. Study on Bidding Strategy and Market Clearing Price in Electric Power Day-ahead Market using Market Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasaki, Tetsuo; Kadoya, Toshihisa

    In an electric power day-ahead market, market prices are not always cleared at marginal cost caused by the strategic bidding of generators. This paper presents the results of day-ahead market simulation that analyzes profits depending upon bidding strategies in an electric power day-ahead market. It is clarified that MCP (Market Clearing Price) is easily managed by only one player and does not easily decline after it has gone up once. Moreover the mutual interference among day-ahead markets, future markets, increase of generators, etc. are also discussed.

  10. Market prices for water in the semiarid West of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brookshire, David S.; Colby, Bonnie; Ewers, Mary; Ganderton, Philip T.

    2004-09-01

    Market prices contain information about supply and demand, the institutions that influence both these elements, and the operation of the market. Prices also allocate scarce resources to higher-valued uses. In this paper we analyze the price history of three water markets in the arid Southwest: Arizona's Central Arizona Project, Colorado's Colorado Big Thompson Project, and New Mexico's Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District. Using water transfers over 11 years, we estimate a simultaneous system of market equations, one for price and the other for quantity demanded. Comparison of the institutional characteristics of each market reveals that Colorado's market is well developed, with many trades and rising prices that respond to market conditions, and New Mexico's market is developing well, with lower prices, but showing some response to supply and demand factors. Arizona's market is the least developed, with few trades and very low prices. Our empirical findings support our claim that markets are becoming more efficient in these regions despite the considerable institutional and historical impediments to the evolution of water markets.

  11. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China’s stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed. PMID:27513330

  12. Hospital prices and market structure in the hospital and insurance industries.

    PubMed

    Moriya, Asako S; Vogt, William B; Gaynor, Martin

    2010-10-01

    There has been substantial consolidation among health insurers and hospitals, recently, raising questions about the effects of this consolidation on the exercise of market power. We analyze the relationship between insurer and hospital market concentration and the prices of hospital services. We use a national US dataset containing transaction prices for health care services for over 11 million privately insured Americans. Using three years of panel data, we estimate how insurer and hospital market concentration are related to hospital prices, while controlling for unobserved market effects. We find that increases in insurance market concentration are significantly associated with decreases in hospital prices, whereas increases in hospital concentration are non-significantly associated with increases in prices. A hypothetical merger between two of five equally sized insurers is estimated to decrease hospital prices by 6.7%.

  13. Pricing behavior of USA exporter in wheat international market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wibowo, R. P.; Sumono; Iddrisu, Y.; Darus, M.; Sihombing, L. P.; Jufri

    2018-02-01

    The number of wheat producing countries is changing over time. It is expected the change in wheat supply will lead world wheat market become more competitive and reduce market power of major exporter country. This paper tries to identify and examined the degree of market power on wheat international market for USA by using the Pricing to Market (PTM) method. USA is the biggest producer and exporter in wheat market. The PTM method found that USA impose noncompetitive strategy by applying price discrimination and apply market power to their importer country.

  14. Alaska softwood market price arbitrage.

    Treesearch

    James A. Stevens; David J. Brooks

    2003-01-01

    This study formally tests the hypothesis that markets for Alaska lumber and logs are integrated with those of similar products from the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada. The prices from these three supply regions are tested in a common demand market (Japan). Cointegration tests are run on paired log and lumber data. Our results support the conclusion that western...

  15. Managing risks of market price uncertainty for a microgrid operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghavan, Sriram

    After deregulation of electricity in the United States, the day-ahead and real-time markets allow load serving entities and generation companies to bid and purchase/sell energy under the supervision of the independent system operator (ISO). The electricity market prices are inherently uncertain, and can be highly volatile. The main objective of this thesis is to hedge against the risk from the uncertainty of the market prices when purchasing/selling energy from/to the market. The energy manager can also schedule distributed generators (DGs) and storage of the microgrid to meet the demand, in addition to energy transactions from the market. The risk measure used in this work is the variance of the uncertain market purchase/sale cost/revenue, assuming the price following a Gaussian distribution. Using Markowitz optimization, the risk is minimized to find the optimal mix of purchase from the markets. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer quadratic program. The microgrid at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) in Chicago, IL was used as a case study. The result of this work reveals the tradeoff faced by the microgrid energy manager between minimizing the risk and minimizing the mean of the total operating cost (TOC) of the microgrid. With this information, the microgrid energy manager can make decisions in the day-ahead and real-time markets according to their risk aversion preference. The assumption of market prices following Gaussian distribution is also verified to be reasonable for the purpose of hedging against their risks. This is done by comparing the result of the proposed formulation with that obtained from the sample market prices randomly generated using the distribution of actual historic market price data.

  16. Price regulation and generic competition in the pharmaceutical market.

    PubMed

    Dalen, Dag Morten; Strøm, Steinar; Haabeth, Tonje

    2006-09-01

    In March 2003 the Norwegian government implemented yardstick-based price regulation schemes on a selection of drugs subjected to generic competition. The retail price cap, termed the "index price," on a drug (chemical substance) was set equal to the average of the three lowest producer prices on that drug, plus a fixed wholesale and retail margin. This is supposed to lower barriers of entry for generic drugs and to trigger price competition. Using monthly data over the period 1998-2004 for the six drugs (chemical entities) included in the index price system, we estimate a structural model enabling us to examine the impact of the reform on both demand and market power. Our results suggest that the index price helped to increase the market shares of generic drugs and succeeded in triggering price competition.

  17. Market power in electric power markets: Indications of competitiveness in spatial prices for wholesale electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denton, Michael John

    The issue of market delineation and power in the wholesale electric energy market is explored using three separate approaches: two of these are analyses of spatial pricing data to explore the functional size of the markets, and the third is a series of experimental tests of the effects of different cost structures and market mechanisms on oligopoly strength in those markets. An equilibrium model of spatial network competition is shown to yield linear relationships between spatial prices. A data set comprising two years of spatial weekly peak and off-peak prices and weather for 6 locations in the Western States Coordinating Council and the Southwest Power Pool is subjected to a pairwise cointegration analysis. The use of dummy variables to account the the flow directions is found to significantly improve model performance. The second analytical technique utilizes the extraction of principal components from a spatial price correlation matrix to identify the extent of natural markets. One year of daily price observations for eleven locations within the WSCC is compiled and eigenvectors are extracted and subjected to oblique rotation, each of which is then interpreted as representing a separate geographic market. The results show that two distinct natural markets, correlated at 84%, account for over 96% of the variation in the spatial prices in the WSSC. Together, the findings support the assertion that the wholesale electricity market in the Western U.S. is large and highly competitive. The experimental analysis utilizes a radial three node network in which suppliers located at the outer nodes sell to buyers located at the central node. The parameterization captures the salient characteristics of the existing bulk power markets, and includes cyclical demand, transmission losses, as well as fixed and avoidable fixed costs for all agents. Treatments varied the number of sellers, the avoidable fixed cost structures, and the trading mechanism. Results indicated that

  18. Market Share Matters: Evidence Of Insurer And Provider Bargaining Over Prices.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Eric T; Chernew, Michael E; McWilliams, J Michael

    2017-01-01

    Proposed mergers among large US health insurers and growing consolidation among providers have renewed concerns about the effects of market concentration on commercial health care prices. Using multipayer claims for physician services provided in office settings, we estimated that-within the same provider groups-insurers with market shares of 15 percent or more (average: 24.5 percent), for example, negotiated prices for office visits that were 21 percent lower than prices negotiated by insurers with shares of less than 5 percent. Analyses stratified by provider market share suggested that insurers require greater market shares to negotiate lower prices from large provider groups than they do when negotiating with smaller provider groups. For example, office visit prices for small practices were $88, $72, and $70, for insurers with market shares of <5 percent, ≥5 to <15 percent, and ≥15 percent, respectively, whereas prices for large provider groups were $97, $86, and $76, exhibiting a continued decrease across higher insurer-market-share categories. These results suggest that mergers of health insurers could lower the prices paid to providers, particularly providers large enough to obtain higher prices from insurers with modest market shares. Continued monitoring will be important for determining the net effects of the countervailing trends of insurer and provider consolidation on the affordability of health care. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  19. The value of price transparency in residential solar photovoltaic markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Margolis, Robert

    Installed prices for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have declined significantly in recent years. However price dispersion and limited customer access to PV quotes prevents some prospective customers from obtaining low price offers. This study shows that improved customer access to prices - also known as price transparency - is a potential policy lever for further PV price reductions. We use customer search and strategic pricing theory to show that PV installation companies face incentives to offer lower prices in markets with more price transparency. We test this theoretical framework using a unique residential PV quote dataset. Our results showmore » that installers offer lower prices to customers that are expected to receive more quotes. Our study provides a rationale for policies to improve price transparency in residential PV markets.« less

  20. The value of price transparency in residential solar photovoltaic markets

    DOE PAGES

    O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Margolis, Robert

    2018-04-05

    Installed prices for residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have declined significantly in recent years. However price dispersion and limited customer access to PV quotes prevents some prospective customers from obtaining low price offers. This study shows that improved customer access to prices - also known as price transparency - is a potential policy lever for further PV price reductions. We use customer search and strategic pricing theory to show that PV installation companies face incentives to offer lower prices in markets with more price transparency. We test this theoretical framework using a unique residential PV quote dataset. Our results showmore » that installers offer lower prices to customers that are expected to receive more quotes. Our study provides a rationale for policies to improve price transparency in residential PV markets.« less

  1. Creating successful price and placement strategies for social marketing.

    PubMed

    Thackeray, Rosemary; Brown, Kelli R McCormack

    2010-03-01

    A successful marketing strategy includes the design of a marketing mix with the right combination of products, offered at the right price, in the right place, and then promoted in such a way that makes it easy and rewarding for the individual to change his or her behavior. A price is incurred in exchange for receiving a bundle of benefits. The social marketer can use various pricing tactics to make the desired behavior appear to have fewer costs and more benefits while making the undesired behavior to have less benefit and greater cost. Place is where and when the target population will perform the desired behavior, purchase or obtain a tangible product, and/or receive associated services. Involving partners in the placement strategy can make products more accessible and increase opportunities for people to perform a behavior. Strategies for making the product available at a desirable price and in places that are convenient are integral to the overall social marketing plan to facilitate behavior change.

  2. A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    E-Khatib, Youssef

    2012-09-01

    One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

  3. Marketing Theory Applied to Price Discrimination in Journals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talaga, James; Haley, Jean Walstrom

    1991-01-01

    Discussion of discriminatory pricing by journal publishers and its effects on libraries focuses on six prerequisites for successful discriminatory pricing that are based on marketing theory. Strategies to eliminate some of these prerequisites--and therefore eliminate discriminatory pricing--are suggested, including the need to change the attitudes…

  4. Non-price competition in the regional high-rise construction market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganebnykh, Elena; Burtseva, Tatyana; Gurova, Ekaterina; Polyakova, Irina

    2018-03-01

    The article analyzes the market of high-rise residential construction in the city of Kirov (Russia). A minimal significance of price factors has been revealed in the process of the market analysis. This suggests that a lower price does not guarantee an increase in consumer demand. Thus, factors of non-price competition are of great importance in the market in question. The expert survey has identified the factors of non-price competition which influence consumer perceptions. A perceptual map has been constructed on the basis of the identified factors by means of the factor analysis to determine the positioning of each high-rise building relative to the consumer requirements. None of the high-rise residential buildings in the market in question meets the consumers' expectations of an "ideal facility".

  5. Hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2012-12-01

    The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they share. In this paper, the She-Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviating from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctuation in fluid turbulence, is applied to study and quantify the hierarchical structure of stock price fluctuations in financial markets. We therefore observed certain interesting results: (i) the hierarchical structure related to multifractal scaling generally presents in all the stock price fluctuations we investigated. (ii) The quantitatively statistical parameters that describe SL hierarchy are different between developed financial markets and emerging ones, distinctively. (iii) For the high-frequency stock price fluctuation, the hierarchical structure varies with different time periods. All these results provide a novel analogy in turbulence and financial market dynamics and an insight to deeply understand multifractality in financial markets.

  6. A comparison of pay-as-bid and marginal pricing in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yongjun

    This thesis investigates the behaviour of electricity markets under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing. Marginal pricing is believed to yield the maximum social welfare and is currently implemented by most electricity markets. However, in view of recent electricity market failures, pay-as-bid has been extensively discussed as a possible alternative to marginal pricing. In this research, marginal and pay-as-bid pricing have been analyzed in electricity markets with both perfect and imperfect competition. The perfect competition case is studied under both exact and uncertain system marginal cost prediction. The comparison of the two pricing methods is conducted through two steps: (i) identify the best offer strategy of the generating companies (gencos); (ii) analyze the market performance under these optimum genco strategies. The analysis results together with numerical simulations show that pay-as-bid and marginal pricing are equivalent in a perfect market with exact system marginal cost prediction. In perfect markets with uncertain demand prediction, the two pricing methods are also equivalent but in an expected value sense. If we compare from the perspective of second order statistics, all market performance measures exhibit much lower values under pay-as-bid than under marginal pricing. The risk of deviating from the mean is therefore much higher under marginal pricing than under pay-as-bid. In an imperfect competition market with exact demand prediction, the research shows that pay-as-bid pricing yields lower consumer payments and lower genco profits. This research provides quantitative evidence that challenges some common claims about pay-as-bid pricing. One is that under pay-as-bid, participants would soon learn how to offer so as to obtain the same or higher profits than what they would have obtained under marginal pricing. This research however shows that, under pay-as-bid, participants can at best earn the same profit or expected profit as under marginal

  7. Market competition and price of disease management programmes: an observational study.

    PubMed

    van Dijk, Christel E; Venema, Bob; de Jong, Judith D; de Bakker, Dinny H

    2014-10-30

    Managed competition was introduced into the health care system in several countries including the Netherlands, although effects of competition of both providers and health insurers on the price of health care are inconclusive. We investigated the association between competition of both providers (care groups) and health insurers and the price of disease management programmes (DMPs). Data from 76 DMP contractual agreements for type II diabetes mellitus in 2008, 2009 and 2010 were used to analyse the association between market competition and the price of DMPs. Market competition was calculated per municipal health services region (GGD). Insurer market competition was measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), care group competition by the number of care groups and the care group market share of GPs. The effect of competition was cross-sectionally studied with linear regression analyses. Insurer market concentration (HHI) and care group market share were not associated with the price of DMPs. The number of care groups in a GGD region was associated with a lower price (-€4.68; 95% CI: -8.36 - -1.00). The mean difference in the price of DMPs between health insurers was €58. The price of DMPs seems to be more dependent on the particular health insurer than on market conditions. For competition among health insurers and provider groups to develop, preconditions such as selective contracting and option for patient to change provider should be in place.

  8. Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

  9. Market Distortion and the Tuition Pricing Mechanism of Higher Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Wei; Wu, Haiquan

    2008-01-01

    Higher education in the market economy is inevitable affected by the higher education market. The tuition of higher education in china had become the personal price performance of higher education in certain degrees and exerts some certain functions of price mechanism. Because the higher education market distortion that tuition pricing cannot…

  10. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuen, Ainslie; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

    2005-08-01

    The NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets have very different structures and there is continuing controversy over whether differences in stock price behaviour are due to market structure or company characteristics. As the influence of market structure on stock prices may be obscured by exogenous factors such as demand and supply, we hypothesize that modulation of the flow of transactions due to market operations may carry a stronger imprint of the internal market mechanism. We analyse times between consecutive transactions (ITT) for NYSE and NASDAQ stocks, and we relate the dynamical properties of the ITT with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We find a robust scale-invariant temporal organisation in the ITT of stocks which is independent of individual company characteristics and industry sector, but which depends on market structure. We find that stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit stronger correlations in their transaction timing within a trading day, compared with NYSE stocks. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing within a trading day, after the move, suggesting influences of market structure. Surprisingly, we also observe that stronger power-law correlations in the ITT are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of ITT and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ, we demonstrate that the higher correlations we find in ITT for NASDAQ stocks are matched by higher correlations in absolute price returns and by higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behaviour through information contained in transaction timing.

  11. Price and distribution policies in healthcare marketing in Romania

    PubMed Central

    Coculescu, BI; Coculescu, EC; Purcărea, VL

    2017-01-01

    There is a principle similar to the theory of exchange in the marketing of health services, meaning that what is delivered to the target market (i.e. the beneficiaries) must be equal to or greater than what is to be received (i.e. the price). The price level in the marketing mix is influenced by how the consumer perceives the respective medical service and is quantified in the profit and the turnover of the organization respectively. The cost of the medical act as a whole is the value of all the tangible and intangible variables associated with it, and the planning, distribution and promotion of the product must be taken into account in the price setting. PMID:28616091

  12. Price and distribution policies in healthcare marketing in Romania.

    PubMed

    Coculescu, B I; Coculescu, E C; Purcărea, V L

    2017-01-01

    There is a principle similar to the theory of exchange in the marketing of health services, meaning that what is delivered to the target market (i.e. the beneficiaries) must be equal to or greater than what is to be received (i.e. the price). The price level in the marketing mix is influenced by how the consumer perceives the respective medical service and is quantified in the profit and the turnover of the organization respectively. The cost of the medical act as a whole is the value of all the tangible and intangible variables associated with it, and the planning, distribution and promotion of the product must be taken into account in the price setting.

  13. Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fujita, K. Sydny

    This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focusedmore » on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.« less

  14. How market structure drives commodity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

    2017-11-01

    We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

  15. Effect of market factors on the short-time pricing of stock-exchange metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    The open trade on the world market is estimated using information of one-day exchange prices of nonferrous and precious metals, oil, reduced crude, and gasoline and the main world stock indices in the time period from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015. It is found that the short-term changes in the prices of nonferrous metals are determined by the prices on the metal market. The changes in the prices of energy carriers and the stock trade on the stock market weakly influence the pricing of nonferrous and precious metals. The prices of metals depend on the situation during trade on commodity exchanges, and the stock market indirectly influences the exchange prices of metals through changes in the share prices of the companies that produce copper, aluminum, and zinc.

  16. Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

    2007-10-01

    To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intrasector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.

  17. Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

    2012-06-01

    An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

  18. Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2018-02-01

    The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

  19. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  20. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  1. Structural Break, Stock Prices of Clean Energy Firms and Carbon Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yubao; Cai, Junyu

    2018-03-01

    This paper uses EU ETS carbon future price and Germany/UK clean energy firms stock indices to study the relationship between carbon market and clean energy market. By structural break test, it is found that the ‘non-stationary’ variables judged by classical unit root test do own unit roots and need taking first difference. After analysis of VAR and Granger causality test, no causal relationships are found between the two markets. However, when Hsiao’s version of causality test is employed, carbon market is found to have power in explaining the movement of stock prices of clean energy firms, and stock prices of clean energy firms also affect the carbon market.

  2. The pricing behavior comparison of Canada and Australia exporter in wheat international market using Pricing to Market (PTM) and Residual Demand Elasticity (RDE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wibowo, R. P.; Sumono; Iddrisu, Y.; Darus, M.; Sihombing, L. P.; Jufri

    2018-02-01

    This paper try to identify and examined the degree of market power on wheat international market by 2 major exporting countries comprising Canada and Australia by using the Pricing to Market (PTM) method and Residual Demand Elasticity (RDE) method. The PTM method found that Canada impose noncompetitive strategy by applying price discrimination and apply market power to their importing. Different results come from Australian exporter as they are not using their market power to the importing. Conflicting result arise from estimation using RDE and PTM method suggest that the need to extend the theoretical model of both model by expand its economic and econometric model to have consistent expected result theoretically and empirically.

  3. Marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies.

    PubMed

    Levaggi, Rosella; Orizio, Grazia; Domenighini, Serena; Bressanelli, Maura; Schulz, Peter J; Zani, Claudia; Caimi, Luigi; Gelatti, Umberto

    2009-10-01

    Internet and e-commerce have profoundly changed society, the economy, and the world of health care. The web offers opportunities to improve health, but it may also represent a big health hazard since it is a basically unregulated market with very low consumer protection. In this paper we analyze marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies (OPs). Our analysis shows that OPs use strategies that would be more suitable for a commodity market than for drugs. These strategies differentiate according to variety (brand or generic), quality, quantity, and target group. OPs are well aware that the vacuum in the legislation allows them to reach a target of consumers that pharmacies cannot normally reach, such as those who would like to use the drug without consulting a physician (or, even worse, against the physician's advice). In this case, they usually charge a higher price, reassure the users by minimizing on the side effects, and induce them to bulk purchase through sensible price discounts. This analysis suggests that the selling of drugs via the Internet can turn into a "public health risk", as has been pointed out by the US Food and Drug Administration.

  4. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today betweenmore » nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a

  5. Pharmaceutical pricing in Japan: market evidence for rheumatoid arthritis treatment.

    PubMed

    Mahlich, Jörg; Kamae, Isao; Sruamsiri, Rosarin

    2018-06-01

    Drug price setting is one of the key challenges faced by the Japanese health care system. This study aims to identify the determinants of drug price in Japan using the example of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment market. In order to compare prices across different products, we calculated prices per defined daily dose using WHO methodology. Price determinants were calculated both at launch and over time using IMS quarterly data on medicines approved for RA treatment in Japan from 2012 to 2015. Pharmaceutical pricing was modeled as a function of clinical and economic variables using regression analysis. For prices at the launch we found that differences in efficacy are not reflected in price differentials. We also report that the number of products within a molecule class had a negative effect on prices while originator drugs maintained higher prices. Although the existing pricing rules in Japan are very comprehensive they do not necessarily capture differences in product characteristics. The findings here support the notion that competitive forces are weak in highly regulated markets such as Japan.

  6. Price and Volume Dynamics in the Japanese Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamashita, Hirofumi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    We investigated data of stocks listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange. Although the data we used contains limited number of limit orders around the best prices in the ask and bid sides, we could confirm some issues of the layered structure which is similar to that in FX markets. We show time series of a market impact index, which is made using high correlation between dynamics of price and volume of limit orders. In the last section, we remark differences in our observations comparing with the FX market case.

  7. Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Friedman, B.; Miller, M.

    In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs. This report presents data on programs that have funded both marketingmore » and program administration. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gathers the data annually from utility green pricing program managers. Programs reporting data to NREL spent a median of 18.8% of program revenues on marketing their programs in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. The smallest utilities (those with less than 25,000 in their eligible customer base) spent 49% of revenues on marketing, significantly more than the overall median. This report addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs--and the role of marketing, generally, in achieving program objectives, including expansion of renewable energy.« less

  8. Spectral method for pricing options in illiquid markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pindza, Edson; Patidar, Kailash C.

    2012-09-01

    We present a robust numerical method to solve a problem of pricing options in illiquid markets. The governing equation is described by a nonlinear Black-Scholes partial differential equation (BS-PDE) of the reaction-diffusion-advection type. To discretise this BS-PDE numerically, we use a spectral method in the asset (spatial) direction and couple it with a fifth order RADAU method for the discretisation in the time direction. Numerical experiments illustrate that our approach is very efficient for pricing financial options in illiquid markets.

  9. Does the market share of generic medicines influence the price level?: a European analysis.

    PubMed

    Dylst, Pieter; Simoens, Steven

    2011-10-01

    After the expiry of patents for originator medicines, generic medicines can enter the market, and price competition may occur. This process generates savings to the healthcare payer and to patients, but knowledge about the factors affecting price competition in the pharmaceutical market following patent expiry is still limited. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the market share of generic medicines and the change of the medicine price level in European off-patent markets. Data on medicine volumes and values for 35 active substances were purchased from IMS Health. Ex-manufacturer prices were used, and the analysis was limited to medicines in immediate-release, oral, solid dosage forms. Countries included were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK, which constitute a mix of countries with low and high generic medicines market shares. Data were available from June 2002 until March 2007. Market volume has risen in both high and low generic market share countries (+29.27% and +27.40%, respectively), but the cause of the rise is different for the two markets. In low generic market share countries, the rise was caused by the increased use of generic medicines, while in high market share countries, the rise was driven by the increased use of generic medicines and a shift of use from originator to generic medicines. Market value was substantially decreased in high generic market share countries (-26.6%), while the decrease in low generic market share countries was limited (-0.06%). In high generic market share countries, medicine prices dropped by -43.18% versus -21.56% in low market share countries. The extent to which price competition from generic medicines leads to price reductions appears to vary according to the market share of generic medicines. High generic market share countries have seen a larger decrease in medicine prices than low market share countries.

  10. A multilayer approach for price dynamics in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondo, Alessio Emanuele; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

    2017-02-01

    We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dynamics, by considering two assets with variable fundamental prices. Fat tails in the probability distributions of normalized returns are observed, together with other features of real financial markets.

  11. Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets

    PubMed Central

    Fuentes, Miguel A.; Gerig, Austin; Vicente, Javier

    2009-01-01

    Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evidence that a modification to the random model—adding a slow, but significant, fluctuation to the standard deviation of the process—accurately explains the probability of different-sized price changes, including the relative high frequency of extreme movements. Furthermore, we show that this process is similar across stocks so that their price fluctuations can be characterized by a single curve. Because the behavior of price fluctuations is rooted in the characteristics of volatility, we expect our results to bring increased interest to stochastic volatility models, and especially to those that can produce the properties of volatility reported here. PMID:20041178

  12. Pricing in health care organizations. A key component of the marketing mix.

    PubMed

    Marlowe, D

    1989-01-01

    Pricing is one of the key components of a successful marketing mix. Pricing objectives, strategies, and tactics cannot stand alone, however. To be effective, price must work in harmony with other marketing and management activities. Despite its importance, use of pricing as a management tool is limited in health care compared to other industries. Many factors contribute to this situation, including the structure of the health-care exchange process, limited consumer knowledge, and a limited ability to measure costs. I will provide an overview of pricing information, both within and outside health care. Specifically, we will explore the definition of pricing, nonmonetary pricing, price elasticity, classical pricing theory, and the role of pricing in a health-care setting.

  13. Hospital market concentration, pricing, and profitability in orthopedic surgery and interventional cardiology.

    PubMed

    Robinson, James C

    2011-06-01

    To examine the association between hospital market concentration and pricing. Hospitals have been merging into systems that potentially wield bargaining power over private health insurers. Concern is growing among policy makers that these systems may respond to provisions of the 2010 health reform legislation by further increasing consolidation and prices. Multivariate statistical methods were used to evaluate the association between hospital market concentration, prices, and profits (contribution margins) for commercially insured patients admitted for any of 6 major cardiac and orthopedic surgery procedures, adjusting for characteristics of the patient (diagnoses, comorbidities,complications) and of the hospital (size, patient volume, teaching status). Data were obtained on 11,330 patients treated in 61 hospitals in 27 markets across 8 states in 2008. Hospital prices for patients in concentrated markets were higher than hospital prices for otherwise-comparable patients in competitive markets by 25.1% for coronary angioplasty, 13.0%for cardiac rhythm management (CRM) device insertion, 19.2% for total knee replacement, 24.1%for total hip replacement, 19.3% for lumbar spine fusion, and 22.7% for cervical spine fusion (P <.05). Contribution margins were higher in concentrated than in competitive hospital markets by $5259 for angioplasty, $3417 for CRM device insertion, $4123 for total knee replacement, $5889 for total hip replacement, $7931 for lumbar spine fusion, and $4663 for cervical spine fusion (P <.05). Hospitals in concentrated markets charge significantly higher prices and earn significantly higher margins from private insurers than do hospitals in competitive markets.

  14. An analysis of strategic price setting in retail gasoline markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaureguiberry, Florencia

    This dissertation studies price-setting behavior in the retail gasoline industry. The main questions addressed are: How important is a retail station's brand and proximity to competitors when retail stations set price? How do retailers adjust their pricing when they cater to consumers who are less aware of competing options or have less discretion over where they purchase gasoline? These questions are explored in two separate analyses using a unique datasets containing retail pricing behavior of stations in California and in 24 different metropolitan areas. The evidence suggests that brand and location generate local market power for gasoline stations. After controlling for market and station characteristics, the analysis finds a spread of 11 cents per gallon between the highest and the lowest priced retail gasoline brands. The analysis also indicates that when the nearest competitor is located over 2 miles away as opposed to next door, consumers will pay an additional 1 cent per gallon of gasoline. In order to quantify the significance of local market power, data for stations located near major airport rental car locations are utilized. The presumption here is that rental car users are less aware or less sensitive to fueling options near the rental car return location and are to some extent "captured consumers". Retailers located near rental car locations have incentives to adjust their pricing strategies to exploit this. The analysis of pricing near rental car locations indicates that retailers charge prices that are 4 cent per gallon higher than other stations in the same metropolitan area. This analysis is of interest to regulators who are concerned with issues of consolidation, market power, and pricing in the retail gasoline industry. This dissertation concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical analysis.

  15. Crowdsourcing Black Market Prices For Prescription Opioids

    PubMed Central

    Freifeld, Clark; Brownstein, John S; Menone, Christopher Mark; Surratt, Hilary L; Poppish, Luke; Green, Jody L; Lavonas, Eric J; Dart, Richard C

    2013-01-01

    Background Prescription opioid diversion and abuse are major public health issues in the United States and internationally. Street prices of diverted prescription opioids can provide an indicator of drug availability, demand, and abuse potential, but these data can be difficult to collect. Crowdsourcing is a rapid and cost-effective way to gather information about sales transactions. We sought to determine whether crowdsourcing can provide accurate measurements of the street price of diverted prescription opioid medications. Objective To assess the possibility of crowdsourcing black market drug price data by cross-validation with law enforcement officer reports. Methods Using a crowdsourcing research website (StreetRx), we solicited data about the price that site visitors paid for diverted prescription opioid analgesics during the first half of 2012. These results were compared with a survey of law enforcement officers in the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS) System, and actual transaction prices on a “dark Internet” marketplace (Silk Road). Geometric means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for comparing prices per milligram of drug in US dollars. In a secondary analysis, we compared prices per milligram of morphine equivalent using standard equianalgesic dosing conversions. Results A total of 954 price reports were obtained from crowdsourcing, 737 from law enforcement, and 147 from the online marketplace. Correlations between the 3 data sources were highly linear, with Spearman rho of 0.93 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and law enforcement, and 0.98 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and online marketplace. On StreetRx, the mean prices per milligram were US$3.29 hydromorphone, US$2.13 buprenorphine, US$1.57 oxymorphone, US$0.97 oxycodone, US$0.96 methadone, US$0.81 hydrocodone, US$0.52 morphine, and US$0.05 tramadol. The only significant difference between data sources was morphine, with a Drug Diversion price of US

  16. Crowdsourcing black market prices for prescription opioids.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Nabarun; Freifeld, Clark; Brownstein, John S; Menone, Christopher Mark; Surratt, Hilary L; Poppish, Luke; Green, Jody L; Lavonas, Eric J; Dart, Richard C

    2013-08-16

    Prescription opioid diversion and abuse are major public health issues in the United States and internationally. Street prices of diverted prescription opioids can provide an indicator of drug availability, demand, and abuse potential, but these data can be difficult to collect. Crowdsourcing is a rapid and cost-effective way to gather information about sales transactions. We sought to determine whether crowdsourcing can provide accurate measurements of the street price of diverted prescription opioid medications. To assess the possibility of crowdsourcing black market drug price data by cross-validation with law enforcement officer reports. Using a crowdsourcing research website (StreetRx), we solicited data about the price that site visitors paid for diverted prescription opioid analgesics during the first half of 2012. These results were compared with a survey of law enforcement officers in the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS) System, and actual transaction prices on a "dark Internet" marketplace (Silk Road). Geometric means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for comparing prices per milligram of drug in US dollars. In a secondary analysis, we compared prices per milligram of morphine equivalent using standard equianalgesic dosing conversions. A total of 954 price reports were obtained from crowdsourcing, 737 from law enforcement, and 147 from the online marketplace. Correlations between the 3 data sources were highly linear, with Spearman rho of 0.93 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and law enforcement, and 0.98 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and online marketplace. On StreetRx, the mean prices per milligram were US$3.29 hydromorphone, US$2.13 buprenorphine, US$1.57 oxymorphone, US$0.97 oxycodone, US$0.96 methadone, US$0.81 hydrocodone, US$0.52 morphine, and US$0.05 tramadol. The only significant difference between data sources was morphine, with a Drug Diversion price of US$0.67/mg (95% CI 0.59-0.75) and a Silk

  17. Private Colleges: Are They Pricing Themselves Out of the Market?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spies, Richard R.

    The question of whether private colleges are pricing themselves out of the market is considered. An analysis of the actual application patterns of a sample of high-ability students indicates that colleges and universities are not pricing themselves out of the market. Despite substantial increases in tuition and other fees over the last several…

  18. The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2008-01-01

    Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

  19. Hospital and Health Insurance Markets Concentration and Inpatient Hospital Transaction Prices in the U.S. Health Care Market.

    PubMed

    Dauda, Seidu

    2018-04-01

    To examine the effects of hospital and insurer markets concentration on transaction prices for inpatient hospital services. Measures of hospital and insurer markets concentration derived from American Hospital Association and HealthLeaders-InterStudy data are linked to 2005-2008 inpatient administrative data from Truven Health MarketScan Databases. Uses a reduced-form price equation, controlling for cost and demand shifters and accounting for possible endogeneity of market concentration using instrumental variables (IV) technique. The findings suggest that greater hospital concentration raises prices, whereas greater insurer concentration depresses prices. A hypothetical merger between two of five equally sized hospitals is estimated to increase hospital prices by about 9 percent (p < .001). A similar merger of insurers would depress prices by about 15.3 percent (p < .001). Over the 2003-2008 periods, the estimates imply that hospital consolidation likely raised prices by about 2.6 percent, while insurer consolidation depressed prices by about 10.8 percent. Additional analysis using longer panel data and applying hospital fixed effects confirms the impact of hospital concentration on prices. The findings provide support for strong antitrust enforcement to curb rising hospital service prices and health care costs. © Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. Relationships among Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

    PubMed Central

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market “underreacting.” The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market. PMID:23690737

  1. Pricing of Surgeries for Colon Cancer: Patient Severity and Market Factors

    PubMed Central

    Dor, Avi; Koroukian, Siran; Xu, Fang; Stulberg, Jonah; Delaney, Conor; Cooper, Gregory

    2012-01-01

    Study Objective Examine effects of HMO penetration, hospital competition, and patient severity on the uptake of laparoscopic colectomy and its price relative to open surgery for colon cancer. Methods We used 2002-2007 the MarketScan Database to identify admissions for privately insured colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic or open partial colectomy (n=1,035 and n=6,389, respectively). Patient and health plan characteristics were retrieved from these data; HMO market penetration rates and an index of hospital market concentration, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), were derived from national databases. Logistic and logarithmic regressions were used to examine the odds of having laparoscopic colectomy, effect of covariates on colectomy prices, and the differential price of laparoscopy. Results Adoption of laparoscopy was highly sensitive to market forces, with a 10% increase in HMO penetration leading to a 10.3% increase in the likelihood of undergoing laparoscopic colectomy (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.109, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.062, 1.158), and a 10% increase in HHI resulting in 6.6% lower likelihood (AOR: 0.936 (0.880, 0.996)). Price models indicated that the price of laparoscopy was 7.6% lower than for open surgery (transformed coefficient (Coeff): 0.927 (0.895, 0.960)). A 10% increase in HMO penetration was associated with 1.6% lower price (Coeff: 0.985 (0.977, 0.992)), while a 10% increase in HHI was associated with 1.6% higher price (Coeff: 1.016 (1.006, 1.027), p < 0.001 for all comparisons). Conclusions Laparoscopy was significantly associated with lower hospital prices. Moreover, Impact Laparoscopic surgery may result in cost savings, while market pressures contribute to its adoption. PMID:22569703

  2. Analyzing millet price regimes and market performance in Niger with remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Essam, Timothy Michael

    This dissertation concerns the analysis of staple food prices and market performance in Niger using remotely sensed vegetation indices in the form of normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI). By exploiting the link between weather-related vegetation production conditions, which serve as a proxy for spatially explicit millet yields and thus millet availability, this study analyzes the potential causal links between NDVI outcomes and millet market performance and presents an empirical approach for predicting changes in market performance based on NDVI outcomes. Overall, the thesis finds that inter-market price spreads and levels of market integration can be reasonably explained by deviations in vegetation index outcomes from the growing season. Negative (positive) NDVI shocks are associated with better (worse) than expected market performance as measured by converging inter-market price spreads. As the number of markets affected by negatively abnormal vegetation production conditions in the same month of the growing season increases, inter-market price dispersion declines. Positive NDVI shocks, however, do not mirror this pattern in terms of the magnitude of inter-market price divergence. Market integration is also found to be linked to vegetation index outcomes as below (above) average NDVI outcomes result in more integrated (segmented) markets. Climate change and food security policies and interventions should be guided by these findings and account for dynamic relationships among market structures and vegetation production outcomes.

  3. Influence of Market Competition on Tetracycline Pricing and Impact of Price Increases on Clinician Prescribing Behavior.

    PubMed

    Barbieri, John S; Margolis, David J; Brod, Bruce A

    2017-12-01

    Oral tetracyclines are commonly used for acne and other conditions. Recent generic price increases threaten access to these medications. Using the OptumInsight Clinformatics DataMart, we retrospectively evaluated the underlying factors behind these price increases for oral tetracylines using the framework of a competitive market and evaluated the impact of these price increases on prescribing practices. Between 2011 and 2013, the mean cost of doxycycline hyclate prescriptions increased from $7.16 to $139.89 and the mean out-of-pocket cost increased by $9.69. A comparable cost increase was not observed for doxycycline monohydrate or minocycline. There was no significant association between the cost of doxycycline hyclate and market concentration as assessed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (β = 0.030, 95% confidence interval -0.019 to 0.079, P = 0.213) and the market was highly concentrated throughout the study period. The percentage of prescriptions for doxycycline hyclate decreased by 1.9% from 2011 to 2013. This dramatic increase in the cost of doxycycline hyclate is not easily explained using the framework of a competitive market, suggesting that noncompetitive market forces may be responsible. In addition, clinicians have not altered their prescribing behavior in response to this price increase, suggesting that clinician or pharmacy level interventions could potentially increase the use of less costly substitutes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging?

    PubMed Central

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers’ clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers’ preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking. PMID:24015219

  5. Why are product prices in online markets not converging?

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers' clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers' preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.

  6. The increased concentration of health plan markets can benefit consumers through lower hospital prices.

    PubMed

    Melnick, Glenn A; Shen, Yu-Chu; Wu, Vivian Yaling

    2011-09-01

    The long-term trend of consolidation among US health plans has raised providers' concerns that the concentration of health plan markets can depress their prices. Although our study confirmed that, it also revealed a more complex picture. First, we found that 64 percent of hospitals operate in markets where health plans are not very concentrated, and only 7 percent are in markets that are dominated by a few health plans. Second, we found that in most markets, hospital market concentration exceeds health plan concentration. Third, our study confirmed earlier studies showing that greater hospital market concentration leads to higher hospital prices. Fourth, we found that hospital prices in the most concentrated health plan markets are approximately 12 percent lower than in more competitive health plan markets. Overall, our results show that more concentrated health plan markets can counteract the price-increasing effects of concentrated hospital markets, and that-contrary to conventional wisdom-increased health plan concentration benefits consumers through lower hospital prices as long as health plan markets remain competitive. Our findings also suggest that consumers would benefit from policies that maintained competition in hospital markets or that would restore competition to hospital markets that are uncompetitive.

  7. Pricing and competition in the private dental market in Finland.

    PubMed

    Widström, E; Väisänen, A; Mikkola, H

    2011-06-01

    To investigate how the prices were set in private dental care, which factors determined prices and whether the recent National Dental Care Reform had increased competition in the dental care market in Finland. A questionnaire to all full time private dentists (n = 1,121) in the ten largest cities. Characteristics of the practice, prices charged, price setting, perceived competition and expectations for the practices were requested. The response rate was 59.6%. Correlation analysis (Pearson's) was used to study relationships between the prices of different treatment items. Linear regression analysis was used to study determinants of the price of a one surface filling. Most dentists' fee schedules were based on the price of a one surface filling and updated annually. Changes in practice costs calculated by the dentists' professional association and information on average prices charged on dental treatments in the country influenced pricing. High price levels were associated with specialisation, working in a group practice, working close to many other practices or in a town with a dental school. Less than half of the respondents had faced competition in dental services and price competition was insignificant. Price setting followed traditional patterns and private markets in dental services were not found to be very competitive.

  8. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  9. Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

    PubMed

    De Vries, A; Feleke, S

    2008-12-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not

  10. Pricing of surgeries for colon cancer: patient severity and market factors.

    PubMed

    Dor, Avi; Koroukian, Siran; Xu, Fang; Stulberg, Jonah; Delaney, Conor; Cooper, Gregory

    2012-12-01

    This study examined effects of health maintenance organization (HMO) penetration, hospital competition, and patient severity on the uptake of laparoscopic colectomy and its price relative to open surgery for colon cancer. The MarketScan Database (data from 2002-2007) was used to identify admissions for privately insured colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic or open partial colectomy (n = 1035 and n = 6389, respectively). Patient and health plan characteristics were retrieved from these data; HMO market penetration rates and an index of hospital market concentration, the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), were derived from national databases. Logistic and logarithmic regressions were used to examine the odds of having laparoscopic colectomy, effect of covariates on colectomy prices, and the differential price of laparoscopy. Adoption of laparoscopy was highly sensitive to market forces, with a 10% increase in HMO penetration leading to a 10.9% increase in the likelihood of undergoing laparoscopic colectomy (adjusted odds ratio = 1.109; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.062, 1.158) and a 10% increase in HHI resulting in 6.6% lower likelihood (adjusted odds ratio = 0.936; 95% CI = 0.880, 0.996). Price models indicated that the price of laparoscopy was 7.6% lower than that of open surgery (transformed coefficient = 0.927; 95% CI = 0.895, 0.960). A 10% increase in HMO penetration was associated with 1.6% lower price (transformed coefficient = 0.985; 95% CI = 0.977, 0.992), whereas a 10% increase in HHI was associated with 1.6% higher price (transformed coefficient = 1.016; 95% CI = 1.006, 1.027; P < .001 for all comparisons). Laparoscopy was significantly associated with lower hospital prices. Moreover, laparoscopic surgery may result in cost savings, while market pressures contribute to its adoption. Copyright © 2012 American Cancer Society.

  11. Power systems locational marginal pricing in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hui-Fung Francis

    Since the beginning of the 1990s, the electricity business is transforming from a vertical integrating business to a competitive market operations. The generation, transmission, distribution subsystem of an electricity utility are operated independently as Genco (generation subsystem), Transco (transmission subsystem), and Distco (distribution subsystem). This trend promotes more economical inter- and intra regional transactions to be made by the participating companies and the users of electricity to achieve the intended objectives of deregulation. There are various types of electricity markets that are implemented in the North America in the past few years. However, transmission congestion management becomes a key issue in the electricity market design as more bilateral transactions are traded across long distances competing for scarce transmission resources. It directly alters the traditional concept of energy pricing and impacts the bottom line, revenue and cost of electricity, of both suppliers and buyers. In this research, transmission congestion problem in a deregulated market environment is elucidated by implementing by the Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) method. With a comprehensive understanding of the LMP method, new mathematical tools will aid electric utilities in exploring new business opportunities are developed and presented in this dissertation. The dissertation focuses on the development of concept of (LMP) forecasting and its implication to the market participants in deregulated market. Specifically, we explore methods of developing fast LMP calculation techniques that are differ from existing LMPs. We also explore and document the usefulness of the proposed LMP in determining electricity pricing of a large scale power system. The developed mathematical tools use of well-known optimization techniques such as linear programming that are support by several flow charts. The fast and practical security constrained unit commitment methods are the

  12. Information-Constrained Optima with Retrading: An Externality and Its Market-Based Solution☆

    PubMed Central

    Kilenthong, Weerachart T.; Townsend, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the efficiency of competitive equilibria in environments with a moral hazard problem and unobserved states, both with retrading in ex post spot markets. The interaction between private information problems and the possibility of retrade creates an externality, unless preferences have special, restrictive properties. The externality is internalized by allowing agents to contract ex ante on market fundamentals determining the spot price or interest rate, over and above contracting on actions and outputs. Then competitive equilibria are equivalent with the appropriate notion of constrained Pareto optimality. Examples show that it is possible to have multiple market fundamentals or price-islands, created endogenously in equilibrium. PMID:21765540

  13. Effects of reference pricing in pharmaceutical markets: a review.

    PubMed

    Galizzi, Matteo Maria; Ghislandi, Simone; Miraldo, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    This work aims to provide a systematic and updated survey of original scientific studies on the effect of the introduction of reference pricing (RP) policies in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We searched PubMed, EconLit and Web of Knowledge for articles on RP. We reviewed studies that met the inclusion criteria established in the search strategy. From a total of 468 references, we selected the 35 that met all of the inclusion criteria. Some common themes emerged in the literature. The first was that RP was generally associated with a decrease in the prices of the drugs subject to the policy. In particular, price drops seem to have been experienced in virtually every country that implemented a generic RP (GRP) policy. A GRP policy applies only to products with expired patents and generic competition, and clusters drugs according to chemical equivalence (same form and active compound). More significant price decreases were observed in the sub-markets in which drugs were already facing generic competition prior to RP. Price drops varied widely according to the amount of generic competition and industrial strategies: brand-named drugs originally priced above RP values decreased their prices to a greater extent. A second common theme was that both therapeutic RP (TRP) and GRP have been associated with significant and consistent savings in the first years of application. A third general result is that generic market shares significantly increased whenever the firms producing brand-named drugs did not adopt one of the following strategies: lowering prices to RP values; launching new dosages and/or formulations; or marketing substitute drugs still under patent protection. Finally, concerning TRP, although more evidence is needed, studies based on a large number of patient-level observations showed no association between the RP policy and health outcomes.

  14. Volatility Spillover in Chinese Steel Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Wen

    2018-03-01

    This paper examines volatility spillover in Chinese steel markets by comparing spillover effects before and after steel futures market established and finds some interesting change. Volatility spillover method based on multi-GARCH model are proposed. The results show that there is significant proof for spillover effects from B2B electronic market to spot market, and two-way effects between futures and spot market. Market policy planners and practitioners could make decisions according to the master of spillovers. We also find that B2B e-market and futures market can both provide efficient protection against steel price volatility risk, B2B e-market offer a broad-based platform for trading steel commodities over time and space since e-market role in information flow process is dominant.

  15. Nonlinear analysis and dynamic structure in the energy market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aghababa, Hajar

    This research assesses the dynamic structure of the energy sector of the aggregate economy in the context of nonlinear mechanisms. Earlier studies have focused mainly on the price of the energy products when detecting nonlinearities in time series data of the energy market, and there is little mention of the production side of the market. Moreover, there is a lack of exploration about the implication of high dimensionality and time aggregation when analyzing the market's fundamentals. This research will address these gaps by including the quantity side of the market in addition to the price and by systematically incorporating various frequencies for sample sizes in three essays. The goal of this research is to provide an inclusive and exhaustive examination of the dynamics in the energy markets. The first essay begins with the application of statistical techniques, and it incorporates the most well-known univariate tests for nonlinearity with distinct power functions over alternatives and tests different null hypotheses. It utilizes the daily spot price observations on five major products in the energy market. The results suggest that the time series daily spot prices of the energy products are highly nonlinear in their nature. They demonstrate apparent evidence of general nonlinear serial dependence in each individual series, as well as nonlinearity in the first, second, and third moments of the series. The second essay examines the underlying mechanism of crude oil production and identifies the nonlinear structure of the production market by utilizing various monthly time series observations of crude oil production: the U.S. field, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), non-OPEC, and the world production of crude oil. The finding implies that the time series data of the U.S. field, OPEC, and the world production of crude oil exhibit deep nonlinearity in their structure and are generated by nonlinear mechanisms. However, the dynamics of the non

  16. Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

    When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation

  17. Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

    2015-05-01

    Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

  18. Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Shijie

    The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in

  19. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place

    PubMed Central

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers. PMID:22345238

  20. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place.

    PubMed

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2012-03-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers.

  1. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  2. The impact of price-cap regulations on market entry by generic pharmaceutical firms.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Sun, Huiying; Guh, Daphne; Anis, Aslam H

    2017-04-01

    In 1998, the province of Ontario, Canada implemented price-cap '70/90' regulations: the first generic must be priced at ≤70% of the associated brand-name price and subsequent generics must be priced at ≤90% of the first generics' price. The price-cap was further lowered to 50% in 2006 and 25% in 2010 for all generic drugs regardless of the first or subsequent generic entrants. This study assessed the impact of such price-cap regulations on market entry by generic firms using the formulary database from 9 provinces (January 2004-March 2013). A logistic regression was estimated to compare the probability of entry during the three policy periods in Ontario ('70/90', '25', versus '50'). Since different price-caps were subsequently introduced in other provinces, Alberta, British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan, difference-in-differences was used to compare market entry. In Ontario, compared with the period '50', generic firms were 76% and 63% less likely to enter markets in the periods '25' and '70/90', respectively. The difference-in-differences showed that the entry probability decreased the most in Ontario during the '25' period from the '50' period. Lowering the price-cap level to 25% leads to a significantly lower probability of market entry by generic firms.

  3. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Koichiro

    This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

  4. The Pricing of British Journals for the North American Market.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuttle, Marcia

    1986-01-01

    Presents an informal report of seminar entitled "Learned Journals: The Problem of Pricing and Buying Round," held in London on March 22, 1985, in attempt to answer charges of discriminatory pricing. Price differential of British scholarly journals, costs, marketing, and role of subscription agent are discussed. Seven sources are given.…

  5. An analysis of volumes, prices and pricing trends of the pediatric antiretroviral market in developing countries from 2004 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Lee, Janice Soo Fern; Sagaon Teyssier, Luis; Dongmo Nguimfack, Boniface; Collins, Intira Jeannie; Lallemant, Marc; Perriens, Joseph; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2016-03-15

    The pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) market is poorly described in the literature, resulting in gaps in understanding treatment access. We analyzed the pediatric ARV market from 2004 to 2012 and assessed pricing trends and associated factors. Data on donor funded procurements of pediatric ARV formulations reported to the Global Price Reporting Mechanism database from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Outcomes of interest were the volume and mean price per patient-year ARV formulation based on WHO ARV dosing recommendations for a 10 kg child. Factors associated with the price of formulations were assessed using linear regression; potential predictors included: country income classification, geographical region, market segment (originator versus generic ARVs), and number of manufacturers per formulation. All analyses were adjusted for type of formulations (single, dual or triple fixed-dose combinations (FDCs)) Data from 111 countries from 2004 to 2012 were included, with procurement of 33 formulations at a total value of USD 204 million. Use of dual and triple FDC formulations increased substantially over time, but with limited changes in price. Upon multivariate analysis, prices of originator formulations were found to be on average 72 % higher than generics (p < 0.001). A 10 % increase in procurement volume was associated with a 1 % decrease (p < 0.001) in both originator and generic prices. The entry of one additional manufacturer producing a formulation was associated with a decrease in prices of 2 % (p < 0.001) and 8 % (p < 0.001) for originator and generic formulations, respectively. The mean generic ARV price did not differ by country income level. Prices of originator ARVs were 48 % (p < 0.001) and 14 % (p < 0.001) higher in upper-middle income and lower-middle income countries compared to low income countries respectively, with the exception of South Africa, which had lower prices despite being an upper-middle income country. The

  6. Pharmaceutical pricing: an empirical study of market competition in Chinese hospitals.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jing; Xu, Judy; Liu, Gordon; Wu, Jiuhong

    2014-03-01

    High pharmaceutical prices and over-prescribing of high-priced pharmaceuticals in Chinese hospitals has long been criticized. Although policy makers have tried to address these issues, they have not yet found an effective balance between government regulation and market forces. Our objective was to explore the impact of market competition on pharmaceutical pricing under Chinese government regulation. Data from 11 public tertiary hospitals in three cities in China from 2002 to 2005 were used to explore the effect of generic and therapeutic competition on prices of antibiotics and cardiovascular products. A quasi-hedonic regression model was employed to estimate the impact of competition. The inputs to our model were specific attributes of the products and manufacturers, with the exception of competition variables. Our results suggest that pharmaceutical prices are inversely related to the number of generic and therapeutic competitors, but positively related to the number of therapeutic classes. In addition, the product prices of leading local manufacturers are not only significantly lower than those of global manufacturers, but are also lower than their non-leading counterparts when other product attributes are controlled for. Under the highly price-regulated market in China, competition from generic and therapeutic competitors did decrease pharmaceutical prices. Further research is needed to explore whether this competition increases consumer welfare in China's healthcare setting.

  7. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    PubMed

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners.

  8. [Policies encouraging price competition in the generic drug market: Lessons from the European experience].

    PubMed

    Puig-Junoy, Jaume

    2010-01-01

    To describe alternative policies aimed at encouraging price competition in generic drug markets in countries with strict price regulation, and to present some case studies drawn from the European experience. Systematic literature review of articles and technical reports published after 1999. The shortcomings in consumer price competition observed in some European generic markets, including Spain, may be reduced through three types of public reimbursement or financing reforms: policies aimed at improving the design of current maximum reimbursement level policies; policies aimed at monitoring competitive prices in order to reimburse real acquisition cost to pharmacies; and, more radical and market-oriented policies such as competitive tendering of public drug purchases. The experience of recent reforms adopted in Germany, Belgium, Holland, Norway, and Sweden offers a useful guide for highly price-regulated European countries, such as Spain, currently characterized by limited consumer price competition and the high discounts offered to pharmacy purchases. Direct price regulation and/or the generic reference pricing systems used to reduce generic drug prices in many European countries can be successfully reformed by adopting measures more closely aimed at encouraging consumer price competition in generic drug markets. Copyright 2009 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  9. Asset price and trade volume relation in artificial market impacted by value investors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangmongkollert, K.; Suwanna, S.

    2016-05-01

    The relationship between return and trade volume has been of great interests in a financial market. The appearance of asymmetry in the price-volume relation in the bull and bear market is still unsettled. We present a model of the value investor traders (VIs) in the double auction system, in which agents make trading decision based on the pseudo fundamental price modelled by sawtooth oscillations. We investigate the system by two different time series for the asset fundamental price: one corresponds to the fundamental price in a growing phase; and the other corresponds to that in a declining phase. The simulation results show that the trade volume is proportional to the difference between the market price and the fundamental price, and that there is asymmetry between the buying and selling phases. Furthermore, the selling phase has more significant impact of price on the trade volume than the buying phase.

  10. ESTIMATING WELFARE IN INSURANCE MARKETS USING VARIATION IN PRICES*

    PubMed Central

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark R.

    2009-01-01

    We provide a graphical illustration of how standard consumer and producer theory can be used to quantify the welfare loss associated with inefficient pricing in insurance markets with selection. We then show how this welfare loss can be estimated empirically using identifying variation in the price of insurance. Such variation, together with quantity data, allows us to estimate the demand for insurance. The same variation, together with cost data, allows us to estimate how insurer’s costs vary as market participants endogenously respond to price. The slope of this estimated cost curve provides a direct test for both the existence and nature of selection, and the combination of demand and cost curves can be used to estimate welfare. We illustrate our approach by applying it to data on employer-provided health insurance from one specific company. We detect adverse selection but estimate that the quantitative welfare implications associated with inefficient pricing in our particular application are small, in both absolute and relative terms. PMID:21218182

  11. CONCENTRATION AND DRUG PRICES IN THE RETAIL MARKET FOR MALARIA TREATMENT IN RURAL TANZANIA

    PubMed Central

    GOODMAN, CATHERINE; KACHUR, S. PATRICK; ABDULLA, SALIM; BLOLAND, PETER; MILLS, ANNE

    2009-01-01

    SUMMARY The impact of market concentration has been little studied in markets for ambulatory care in the developing world, where the retail sector often accounts for a high proportion of treatments. This study begins to address this gap through an analysis of the consumer market for malaria treatment in rural areas of three districts in Tanzania. We developed methods for investigating market definition, sales volumes and concentration, and used these to explore the relationship between antimalarial retail prices and competition. The market was strongly geographically segmented and highly concentrated in terms of antimalarial sales. Antimalarial prices were positively associated with market concentration. High antimalarial prices were likely to be an important factor in the low proportion of care seekers obtaining appropriate treatment. Retail sector distribution of subsidised antimalarials has been proposed to increase the coverage of effective treatment, but this analysis indicates that local market power may prevent such subsidies from being passed on to rural customers. Policymakers should consider the potential to maintain lower retail prices by decreasing concentration among antimalarial providers and recommending retail price levels. PMID:19301420

  12. Should Consumers Be Priced Out of Pollution-Permit Markets?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Stefani C.; Yates, Andrew J.

    2003-01-01

    Presents a simple diagrammatic exposition of a pollution-permit market in which firms that generate pollution and consumers who are harmed by pollution are allowed to purchase permits at a single market price. Illustrates that the market equilibrium is efficient only if the endowment of permits is equal to the efficient level of pollution. (JEH)

  13. Do market components account for higher US prescription prices?

    PubMed

    Monaghan, M J; Monaghan, M S

    1996-12-01

    Although only 7-8% of US healthcare expenditures are spent on prescription drug products, the pharmaceutical industry's profitability and high cost of prescriptions to consumers make prescription drugs a visible target for reform. When compared with other products, it appears as if unfair pricing tactics are used. The pharmaceutical industry cites costs of research and development and a short patent life as justifiable grounds for high prices, but the reason why US drug prices appear to be so high has yet to be answered. To examine identified components of the pharmaceutical industry that allow US prescription drugs to appear to be highly priced and to review the apparent factors that affect pricing policies for pharmaceuticals. The literature was reviewed to identify current research regarding the pharmaceutical market. Sources included MEDLINE, Econolit, Business Periodical Index, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and the F-D-C Pink Sheet. Key factors account for the fact that US prescription drug prices are higher and that price discrimination occurs in the pharmaceutical industry within the US and among other countries. These factors include the unique market structure of the pharmaceutical industry, asymmetry of information, research and development costs, numerous channels of distribution and the differences among them, and government laws and regulations of prescription drugs. Pricing policies of pharmaceutical companies are based on manufacturing, promotion, and distribution costs; drug characteristics; and economic goals of the parent company.

  14. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norouzzadeh, P.; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, B.

    2007-07-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal analysis, fluctuations behavior, the scaling exponents and generalized Hurst exponents are studied. Moreover, contribution of fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations to multifractality is studied.

  15. The Effects of Market Concentration on Residential Solar PV Prices: Competition, Installer Scale, and Soft Costs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    OShaughnessy, Eric J

    Competition among residential solar photovoltaic (PV) installers may reduce PV price markups and yield lower prices. At the same time, competition may reduce installer experience and opportunities for cost reductions through learning-by-doing and economies of scale. These dynamics suggest that PV non-hardware or 'soft' costs and installed prices depend on the distribution of market shares among installers, also known as market concentration. This study leverages a rich data set of 226,769 residential PV systems to examine the relationship between market concentration, soft costs, and PV prices. The results show that PV prices are lower, on average, in more concentrated markets,more » i.e., markets with fewer installers or where few installers hold high market share. The study provides evidence that this relationship is non-linear, such that prices are minimized in markets with an optimal balance of the benefits of market concentration and the benefits of competition.« less

  16. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  17. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  18. Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero, Natalia E.

    The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

  19. Post-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2017-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are useful to cool off traders short-term trading mania on individual stocks. The price dynamics approaching the limit boards are known as the magnet effect. However, the price dynamics after opening price limit hits are not well investigated. Here, we provide a detailed analysis on the price dynamics after the hits of up-limit or down-limit is open based on all A-share stocks traded in the Chinese stock markets. A "W" shape is found in the expected return, which reveals high probability of a continuous price limit hit on the following day. We also find that price dynamics after opening limit hits are dependent on the market trends. The time span of continuously hitting the price limit is found to an influence factor of the expected profit after the limit hit is open. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics around the limit boards and contributes potential practical values for investors.

  20. Concentration and drug prices in the retail market for malaria treatment in rural Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Goodman, Catherine; Kachur, S Patrick; Abdulla, Salim; Bloland, Peter; Mills, Anne

    2009-06-01

    The impact of market concentration has been little studied in markets for ambulatory care in the developing world, where the retail sector often accounts for a high proportion of treatments. This study begins to address this gap through an analysis of the consumer market for malaria treatment in rural areas of three districts in Tanzania. We developed methods for investigating market definition, sales volumes and concentration, and used these to explore the relationship between antimalarial retail prices and competition.The market was strongly geographically segmented and highly concentrated in terms of antimalarial sales. Antimalarial prices were positively associated with market concentration. High antimalarial prices were likely to be an important factor in the low proportion of care-seekers obtaining appropriate treatment.Retail sector distribution of subsidised antimalarials has been proposed to increase the coverage of effective treatment, but this analysis indicates that local market power may prevent such subsidies from being passed on to rural customers. Policymakers should consider the potential to maintain lower retail prices by decreasing concentration among antimalarial providers and recommending retail price levels. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... other data it used in making its estimate. (c) The procuring activity's estimate of fair market price... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The...

  2. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... other data it used in making its estimate. (c) The procuring activity's estimate of fair market price... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The...

  3. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... other data it used in making its estimate. (c) The procuring activity's estimate of fair market price... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The...

  4. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... other data it used in making its estimate. (c) The procuring activity's estimate of fair market price... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The...

  5. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... other data it used in making its estimate. (c) The procuring activity's estimate of fair market price... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false How is fair market price... Development Contractual Assistance § 124.511 How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? (a) The...

  6. Housing price gradient and immigrant population: Data from the Italian real estate market.

    PubMed

    Antoniucci, Valentina; Marella, Giuliano

    2018-02-01

    The database presented here was collected by Antoniucci and Marella to analyze the correlation between the housing price gradient and the immigrant population in Italy during 2016. It may also be useful in other statistical analyses, be they on the real estate market or in another branches of social science. The data sample relates to 112 Italian provincial capitals. It provides accurate information on urban structure, and specifically on urban density. The two most significant variables are original indicators constructed from official data sources: the housing price gradient, or the ratio between average prices in the center and suburbs by city; and building density, which is the average number of housing units per residential building. The housing price gradient is calculated for the two residential sub-markets, new-build and existing units, providing an original and detailed sample of the Italian residential market. Rather than average prices, the housing price gradient helps to identify potential divergences in residential market trends. As well as house prices, two other data clusters are considered: socio-economic variables, which provide a framework of each city, in terms of demographic and economic information; and various data on urban structure, which are rarely included in the same database.

  7. Threshold Pricing: A Strategy for the Marketing of Adult Education Courses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Because threshold pricing's scope for course price development had a good potential for application to the marketing of services by nonprofit organizations, this study's purpose was to determine the existence and applicability of course price thresholds or ranges to the decisionmaking framework of adult educators, with special reference to…

  8. Information-driven trade and price-volume relationship in artificial stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xinghua; Liu, Xin; Liang, Xiaobei

    2015-07-01

    The positive relation between stock price changes and trading volume (price-volume relationship) as a stylized fact has attracted significant interest among finance researchers and investment practitioners. However, until now, consensus has not been reached regarding the causes of the relationship based on real market data because extracting valuable variables (such as information-driven trade volume) from real data is difficult. This lack of general consensus motivates us to develop a simple agent-based computational artificial stock market where extracting the necessary variables is easy. Based on this model and its artificial data, our tests have found that the aggressive trading style of informed agents can produce a price-volume relationship. Therefore, the information spreading process is not a necessary condition for producing price-volume relationship.

  9. The mismatch between conventional house price modeling and regulated markets: insights from The Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Tu, Qi; de Haan, Jan; Boelhouwer, Peter

    2017-01-01

    House price modeling has been frequently used to investigate the dynamics of housing markets, especially competitive markets; yet less attention has been given to markets that have experienced considerable interventions. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a mismatch between conventional house price models and the case of the Netherlands and to provide reasons of such mismatch. We first describe and classify the conventional house price models into asset-pricing house price model, stock-flow model, multi-period utility model, and repayment model. These models are subsequently applied to the Netherlands, where considerable government interventions took place. As expected, the empirical results are unsatisfactory to explain the Dutch house price development. The degree of mismatch of the repayment model and the multi-period utility model, however, seems to be fairly limited.

  10. Is the price squeeze doctrine still viable in fully-regulated energy markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Spiwak, L.J.

    Simply stated, a price squeeze occurs when a firm with monopoly power on the primary, or wholesale, level engages in a prolonged price increase that drives competitors out of the secondary, or retail level, and thereby extends its monopoly power to the secondary market. A price squeeze will not be found, however, for any short-term exercise in market power. Rather, because anticompetitive effects of a price squeeze are indirect, the price squeeze must last long enough and be severe enough to produce effects on actual or potential competition in the secondary market. In regulated electric industries, a price squeeze claimmore » usually arises from the complex relationship between the supplier, the wholesale customer, the retail customer, and the federal and state regulators. The supplier sells electric power to both wholesale and retail customers. Wholesale transactions are regulated by federal regulators, and retail transactions are regulated at the state level. The wholesale customers in turn sell power to their retail customers. Over the last several years, there have been substantial developments in the application of the price squeeze doctrine to fully-regulated electric utilities. This article will examine the current developments in this area, and attempt to highlight the burdens potential litigants, both plaintiffs and defendants, must overcome to succeed.« less

  11. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based on...

  12. 78 FR 46799 - Use of Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-02

    ...The Department of Commerce (``Department'') is modifying its regulation which states that the Department normally will use the price that a nonmarket economy (``NME'') producer pays to a market economy supplier when a factor of production is purchased from a market economy supplier and paid for in market economy currency, in the calculation of normal value (``NV'') in antidumping proceedings involving NME countries. The rule establishes a requirement that the input at issue be produced in one or more market economy countries, and a revised threshold requiring that ``substantially all'' (i.e., 85 percent) of an input be purchased from one or more market economy suppliers before the Department uses the purchase price paid to value the entire factor of production. The Department is making this change because it finds that a market economy input price is not the best available information for valuing all purchases of that input when market economy purchases of an input do not account for substantially all purchases of the input.

  13. A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sajipriya, N.

    2012-10-01

    The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

  14. Lead and the London Metal Exchange — a happy marriage? The outlook for prices and pricing issues confronting the lead industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keen, A.

    The outlook for the supply-demand balance for refined lead is addressed and takes into account the growing non-fundamental forces on price determination. The market for refined lead is presently experiencing its first year of surplus since the major crisis of the early 1990s. Earlier in the decade, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and recession in developed economies led to a significant rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. An acceleration absorbed these stocks in an 18-month period in the mid-1990s, and LME lead prices reacted to the market deficit by peaking above US900. Since then the market has balanced, yet prices have declined steadily to less that 50% of their peak levels. It is argued that, on fundamental grounds, prices have fallen below justified levels. As much of the reason for this depression between 1997 and 1999 has been the generally depressive effect of the Asian economic crisis on financial markets, the level of lead prices may now be due for a correction. Other metals have begun to increase during the first half of 1999 and lead, given its neutral fundamental outlook, is now poised to participate in the generally more buoyant moods across LME metals. An increase of approximately 10% in average LME 3-month settlement prices is forecast and will result in annual average prices of US 570/tonne over the course of 1999. Monthly averages and spot prices are predicted to exceed this level, particularly during peak third-quarter demand.

  15. Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

    2007-03-01

    We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

  16. Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news. PMID:26107740

  17. Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Woo, C. K.; Ho, T.; Zarnikau, J.

    Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the March 11, 2011 earthquake, has led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. To maintain resource adequacy for a grid's reliable operation, one option is to expand conventional generation, whose marginal unit is typically fueled by natural-gas. Two timely and relevant questions thus arise for a deregulated wholesale electricity market: (1) what is the likely price increase due to a nuclear plant shutdown? and (2) what can be done to mitigate the price increase? To answer these questions, we perform a regression analysis of a large sample of hourly real-time electricity-market pricemore » data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for the 33-month sample period of April 2010-December 2012. Our analysis indicates that the 2013 shutdown of the state's San Onofre plant raised the CAISO real-time hourly market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH, and that the price increases could have been offset by a combination of demand reduction, increasing solar generation, and increasing wind generation.« less

  18. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... Contracts COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 2-COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is...

  19. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... Contracts COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 2-COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is...

  20. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 2-COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for...

  1. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 2-COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for...

  2. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC will...

  3. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC will...

  4. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC will...

  5. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC will...

  6. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. 1427.25 Section 1427.25 Agriculture Regulations of the..., PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS COTTON Nonrecourse Cotton Loan and Loan Deficiency Payments § 1427.25 Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton. (a) CCC will...

  7. The effect of physician and health plan market concentration on prices in commercial health insurance markets.

    PubMed

    Schneider, John E; Li, Pengxiang; Klepser, Donald G; Peterson, N Andrew; Brown, Timothy T; Scheffler, Richard M

    2008-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the market structure of health plans (HPs) and physician organizations (POs) in California, a state with high levels of managed care penetration and selective contracting. First we calculate Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI) concentration indices for HPs and POs in 42 California counties. We then estimate a multivariable regression model to examine the relationship between concentration measures and the prices paid by HPs to POs. Price data is from Medstat MarketScan databases. The findings show that any California counties exhibit what the Department of Justice would consider high HHI concentration measures, in excess of 1,800. More than three quarters of California counties exhibit HP concentration indices over 1,800, and 83% of counties have PO concentration levels in excess of 1,800. Half of the study counties exhibited PO concentration levels in excess of 3,600, compared to only 24% for plans. Multivariate price models suggest that PO concentration is associated with higher physician prices (p < or = 0.05), whereas HP concentration does not appear to be significantly associated with higher outpatient commercial payer prices.

  8. Beneficiary price sensitivity in the Medicare prescription drug plan market.

    PubMed

    Frakt, Austin B; Pizer, Steven D

    2010-01-01

    The Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) came into existence in 2006 as part of the Medicare prescription drug benefit. It is the most popular plan type among Medicare drug plans and large numbers of plans are available to all beneficiaries. In this article we present the first analysis of beneficiary price sensitivity in the PDP market. Our estimate of elasticity of enrollment with respect to premium, -1.45, is larger in magnitude than has been found in the Medicare HMO market. This high degree of beneficiary price sensitivity for PDPs is consistent with relatively low product differentiation, low fixed costs of entry in the PDP market, and the fact that, in contrast to changing HMOs, beneficiaries can select a PDP without disrupting doctor-patient relationships.

  9. Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak.

    PubMed

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-01-01

    The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.

  10. Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

    PubMed Central

    Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

    2017-01-01

    The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels. PMID:28660192

  11. Extreme prices in electricity balancing markets from an approach of statistical physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mureddu, Mario; Meyer-Ortmanns, Hildegard

    2018-01-01

    An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, mainly due to an increased number of extreme price spikes. This study analyzes the impact of an increased share of renewable energy sources on the behavior of price and volumes of the Italian balancing market. Starting from configurations of load and power production, which guarantee a stable performance, we implement fluctuations in the load and in renewables; in particular we artificially increase the contribution of renewables as compared to conventional power sources to cover the total load. We then determine the amount of requested energy in the balancing market and its fluctuations, which are induced by production and consumption. Within an approach of agent-based modeling we estimate the resulting energy prices and costs. While their average values turn out to be only slightly affected by an increased contribution from renewables, the probability for extreme price events is shown to increase along with undesired peaks in the costs. Our methodology provides a tool for estimating outliers in prices obtained in the energy balancing market, once data of consumption, production and their typical fluctuations are provided.

  12. The impact of advertising on price and practice volume. A case study of dental markets.

    PubMed

    Kwon, I W; Safranski, S R; Kim, J H

    1993-02-01

    Advertising is often considered a catalyst which stimulates competition by communicating the important attributes (information) of goods and services to consumers. Theoretically, advertising makes demand responsive to strategic price differences. This advertisement-induced price elasticity puts competitive pressure on the providers' pricing strategy. It has been assumed that this effect also exists in the health care market. This study investigates the impact that the advertising of services has on the price and demand behaviour in the dental care market. The sampling frame includes 1,326 dentists, 558 (44.3%) of whom have advertised their services. The statistical results seem to dispute the claim that advertising lowers the consumer's price and increases the advertising dentist's market share.

  13. Optimal pricing and marketing planning for deteriorating items.

    PubMed

    Moosavi Tabatabaei, Seyed Reza; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Makui, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue.

  14. Order flow dynamics around extreme price changes on an emerging stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, Guo-Hua; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Chen, Wei; Kertész, János

    2010-07-01

    We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the bid-ask spread and the volume imbalance increase before the extreme events and decay slowly as a power law, which forms a well-established peak. The volume of buy market orders increases faster and the corresponding peak appears earlier than for sell market orders around positive events, while the volume peak of sell market orders leads buy market orders in the magnitude and time around negative events. When orders are divided into four groups according to their aggressiveness, we find that the behaviors of order volume and order number are similar, except for buy limit orders and canceled orders that the peak of order number postpones 2 min later after the peak of order volume, implying that investors placing large orders are more informed and play a central role in large price fluctuations. We also study the relative rates of different types of orders and find differences in the dynamics of relative rates between buy orders and sell orders and between individual investors and institutional investors. There is evidence that institutions behave very differently from individuals and that they have more aggressive strategies. Combining these findings, we conclude that institutional investors are better informed and play a more influential role in driving large price fluctuations.

  15. Influence of market factors on the pricing of exchange traded metals in the medium term

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

    2017-06-01

    On the basis of comparison of the influence of the stock exchange factors on the pricing of nonferrous metals for medium term with similar results for short term, it has been established that the main attention should be paid to the changes in the pricing environment on the metal market as a function of the prices of exchange traded metals. The situation on the market of energy carriers (hydrocarbons) and the European, American, and Asian stock exchanges can be based on parity and even significantly influence the variation of the metal prices. In the medium term, constructive development of metal trade should be reasonably promoted by changing the elasticity of supply with regard to prices for exchange traded metals and by applying the stock exchange factors that positively influence the pricing on commodity and stock markets.

  16. Hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in two eastern hardwood markets: The real story

    Treesearch

    Neal P. Kingsley; Paul S. DeBald; Paul S. DeBald

    1987-01-01

    Current and real prices of hardwood lumber and stumpage prices are discussed. Results show that inflation wiped out most of the apparent price increases in two major hardwood lumber markets. Stumpage prices also failed to increase in real terms for most species in Ohio. Current and real prices trends for eight major eastern species are shown for the period 1964 through...

  17. Pricing behaviour of nonprofit insurers in a weakly competitive social health insurance market.

    PubMed

    Douven, Rudy C H M; Schut, Frederik T

    2011-03-01

    In this paper we examine the pricing behaviour of nonprofit health insurers in the Dutch social health insurance market. Since for-profit insurers were not allowed in this market, potential spillover effects from the presence of for-profit insurers on the behaviour of nonprofit insurers were absent. Using a panel data set for all health insurers operating in the Dutch social health insurance market over the period 1996-2004, we estimate a premium model to determine which factors explain the price setting behaviour of nonprofit health insurers. We find that financial stability rather than profit maximisation offers the best explanation for health plan pricing behaviour. In the presence of weak price competition, health insurers did not set premiums to maximize profits. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that regulations on financial reserves are needed to restrict premiums. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Optimal pricing and marketing planning for deteriorating items

    PubMed Central

    Moosavi Tabatabaei, Seyed Reza; Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Makui, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Optimal pricing and marketing planning plays an essential role in production decisions on deteriorating items. This paper presents a mathematical model for a three-level supply chain, which includes one producer, one distributor and one retailer. The proposed study considers the production of a deteriorating item where demand is influenced by price, marketing expenditure, quality of product and after-sales service expenditures. The proposed model is formulated as a geometric programming with 5 degrees of difficulty and the problem is solved using the recent advances in optimization techniques. The study is supported by several numerical examples and sensitivity analysis is performed to analyze the effects of the changes in different parameters on the optimal solution. The preliminary results indicate that with the change in parameters influencing on demand, inventory holding, inventory deteriorating and set-up costs change and also significantly affect total revenue. PMID:28306750

  19. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  20. Analysis of the transmission characteristics of China's carbon market transaction price volatility from the perspective of a complex network.

    PubMed

    Jia, Jingjing; Li, Huajiao; Zhou, Jinsheng; Jiang, Meihui; Dong, Di

    2018-03-01

    Research on the price fluctuation transmission of the carbon trading pilot market is of great significance for the establishment of China's unified carbon market and its development in the future. In this paper, the carbon market transaction prices of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Guangdong were selected from December 29, 2013 to March 26, 2016, as sample data. Based on the view of the complex network theory, we construct a price fluctuation transmission network model of five pilot carbon markets in China, with the purposes of analyzing the topological features of this network, including point intensity, weighted clustering coefficient, betweenness centrality, and community structure, and elucidating the characteristics and transmission mechanism of price fluctuation in China's five pilot cities. The results of point intensity and weighted clustering coefficient show that the carbon prices in the five markets remained unchanged and transmitted smoothly in general, and price fragmentation is serious; however, at some point, the price fluctuates with mass phenomena. The result of betweenness centrality reflects that a small number of price fluctuations can control the whole market carbon price transmission and price fluctuation evolves in an alternate manner. The study provides direction for the scientific management of the carbon price. Policy makers should take a positive role in promoting market activity, preventing the risks that may arise from mass trade and scientifically forecasting the volatility of trading prices, which will provide experience for the establishment of a unified carbon market in China.

  1. Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

  2. North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach

    Treesearch

    Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2011-01-01

    Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-à-vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...

  3. Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

  4. Riding the Electricity Market as an Energy Management Strategy: Savings from Real-Time Pricing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chiles, Thomas; Shutika, Kenneth; Coleman, Philip

    Dynamic pricing of electricity, in which retail prices facing customers are responsive to changes in the underlying wholesale markets, represents a step towards economic efficiency in that customers get exposed to some or all of the costs facing wholesale market players. But what do customers who opt for this greater exposure – available in the roughly 15 “de-regulated” states, as well as, to some extent, from some regulated utilities – get in return for their risks? The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) took a retrospective eight-year look at what the savings would have been had they let the loads formore » which they purchase electricity in the Washington, DC area buy electricity on the real-time pricing (RTP) market – the dynamic pricing option with the highest risk – as opposed to the strategy they chose in actuality, which was fixing flat prices with 3rd-party providers. We found that opting for RTP for the eight years of the study (2005 through 2012) would have resulted in 17% savings, or almost a quarter of a billion dollars, relative to GSA’s actual prices from the 3rd-party suppliers. This is particularly astonishing given that GSA appeared to have timed the market well during the study period, consistently beating the standard offer products provided by the distribution utilities. The issue of budgetary predictability poses an obstacle for customers (especially government ones) considering RTP and, to a lesser extent, other dynamic pricing options. Indeed, GSA would have lost money with RTP in two of the eight years, one of them substantially. But the magnitude of the savings is indisputably compelling and, even if it may be somewhat aberrational due to high congestion in the DC market, begs consideration by large electricity users currently paying to “lock in” fixed flat prices.« less

  5. Tax, price and cigarette smoking: evidence from the tobacco documents and implications for tobacco company marketing strategies

    PubMed Central

    Chaloupka, F; Cummings, K; Morley, C.; Horan, J.

    2002-01-01

    Methods: Data for this study come from tobacco industry documents contained in the Youth and Marketing database created by the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and available through http:// roswell.tobaccodocuments.org, supplemented with documents obtained from http://www.tobaccodocuments.org. Results: Tobacco company documents provide clear evidence on the impact of cigarette prices on cigarette smoking, describing how tax related and other price increases lead to significant reductions in smoking, particularly among young persons. This information was very important in developing the industry's pricing strategies, including the development of lower price branded generics and the pass through of cigarette excise tax increases, and in developing a variety of price related marketing efforts, including multi-pack discounts, couponing, and others. Conclusions: Pricing and price related promotions are among the most important marketing tools employed by tobacco companies. Future tobacco control efforts that aim to raise prices and limit price related marketing efforts are likely to be important in achieving reductions in tobacco use and the public health toll caused by tobacco. PMID:11893816

  6. 77 FR 22282 - Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of Equivalent Price Series

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-13

    ... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Agricultural Marketing Service [Doc. No. AMS-DA-10-0089; DA-11-01] Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of Equivalent Price Series AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Determination of equivalent price series. SUMMARY: It has been...

  7. Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

    2005-05-01

    This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

  8. Entry, Pricing, and Product Design in an Initially Monopolized Market

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Steven J.; Murphy, Kevin M.; Topel, Robert H.

    2004-01-01

    We analyze entry, pricing, and product design in a model with differentiated products. Market equilibrium can be "separating," with multiple sellers and a sorting of heterogeneous consumers across goods, or "exclusionary," with one seller serving all customer types. Entry into an initially monopolized market can occur because of cost reductions or…

  9. Oil markets in turmoil: an economic analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Verleger, P.K. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Departing from conventional wisdom about the forces most responsible for oil price increases, this book analyzes the response of consumers, oil companies, and oil-exporting nations to show that lethargy, not greed, best describes the behavior of these participants during a supply disruption. The adjustment to changes in market conditions is so slow that minor incidents are transformed into major crises. Assessing existing policy options, Verleger dispels the idea of matching supply losses with an equal cut in consumption. He recommends a free-market approach, which entails raising prices quickly, imposing large tariffs on imports, encouraging the development of private stockpiles, andmore » using spot prices as an indicator of oil shortages. He shows that the market approach will impose fewer costs than the regulatory approach in the long run. 83 references, 17 figures, 70 tables.« less

  10. Prices need no preferences: social trends determine decisions in experimental markets for pain relief.

    PubMed

    Vlaev, Ivo; Seymour, Ben; Chater, Nick; Winston, Joel S; Yoshida, Wako; Wright, Nicholas; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Ray

    2014-01-01

    A standard view in health economics is that, although there is no market that determines the "prices" for health states, people can nonetheless associate health states with monetary values (or other scales, such as quality adjusted life year [QALYs] and disability adjusted life year [DALYs]). Such valuations can be used to shape health policy, and a major research challenge is to elicit such values from people; creating experimental "markets" for health states is a theoretically attractive way to address this. We explore the possibility that this framework may be fundamentally flawed-because there may not be any stable values to be revealed. Instead, perhaps people construct ad hoc values, influenced by contextual factors, such as the observed decisions of others. The participants bid to buy relief from equally painful electrical shocks to the leg and arm in an experimental health market based on an interactive second-price auction. Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental conditions where the bids by "others" were manipulated to follow increasing or decreasing price trends for one, but not the other, pain. After the auction, a preference test asked the participants to choose which pain they prefer to experience for a longer duration. Players remained indifferent between the two pain-types throughout the auction. However, their bids were differentially attracted toward what others bid for each pain, with overbidding during decreasing prices and underbidding during increasing prices. Health preferences are dissociated from market prices, which are strongly referenced to others' choices. This suggests that the price of health care in a free-market has the capacity to become critically detached from people's underlying preferences. 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  11. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

    PubMed

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-11-10

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

  12. Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between crude oil market and Chinese ten sector stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Liansheng; Zhu, Yingming; Wang, Yudong; Wang, Yiqi

    2016-11-01

    Based on the daily price data of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and ten CSI300 sector indices in China, we apply multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlations between crude oil and Chinese sector stock markets. We find that the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and energy sector stock market is the highest, followed by the strength of multifractality between WTI crude oil and financial sector market, which reflects a close connection between energy and financial market. Then we do vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to capture the interdependencies among the multiple time series. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data and residual errors of VAR model, we get a conclusion that vector auto-regression (VAR) model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the cross-correlations between WTI crude oil and the ten sector stock markets.

  13. The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

    2017-05-01

    The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

  14. A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamba, H.

    2010-09-01

    In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions.

  15. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  16. The Australian electricity market's pre-dispatch process: Some observations on its efficiency using ordered probit model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zainudin, Wan Nur Rahini Aznie; Becker, Ralf; Clements, Adam

    2015-12-01

    Many market participants in Australia Electricity Market had cast doubts on whether the pre-dispatch process in the electricity market is able to give them good and timely quantity and price information. In a study by [11], they observed a significant bias (mainly indicating that the pre-dispatch process tends to underestimate spot price outcomes), a seasonality features of the bias across seasons and/or trading periods and changes in bias across the years in our sample period (1999 to 2007). In a formal setting of an ordered probit model we establish that there are some exogenous variables that are able to explain increased probabilities of over- or under-predictions of the spot price. It transpires that meteorological data, expected pre-dispatch prices and information on past over- and under-predictions contribute significantly to explaining variation in the probabilities for over- and under-predictions. The results allow us to conjecture that some of the bids and re-bids provided by electricity generators are not made in good faith.

  17. Price Analysis of Railway Freight Transport under Marketing Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Ying; Fang, Xiaoping; Chen, Zhiya

    Regarding the problems in the reform of the railway tariff system and the pricing of the transport, by means of assaying the influence of the price elasticity on the artifice used for price, this article proposed multiple regressive model which analyzed price elasticity quantitatively. This model conclude multi-factors which influences on the price elasticity, such as the averagely railway freight charge, the averagely freight haulage of proximate supersede transportation mode, the GDP per capita in the point of origin, and a series of dummy variable which can reflect the features of some productive and consume demesne. It can calculate the price elasticity of different classes in different domains, and predict the freight traffic volume on different rate levels. It can calculate confidence-level, and evaluate the relevance of each parameter to get rid of irrelevant or little relevant variables. It supplied a good theoretical basis for directing the pricing of transport enterprises in market economic conditions, which is suitable for railway freight, passenger traffic and other transportation manner as well. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software was used to calculate and analysis the example. This article realized the calculation by HYFX system(Ministry of Railways fund).

  18. A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai

    We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

  19. A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

    DOE PAGES

    Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai; ...

    2017-03-16

    We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

  20. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-01-01

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

  1. Using the market to regulate health care price: why heart hospitals will have a competitive advantage in the world of post-diagnostic related group pricing.

    PubMed

    McLean, Thomas R

    2004-01-01

    For the past 20 years, the federal government has reimbursed hospital services by administrating pricing. Simply put, under such a system the government dictated the prices of medical services. Not only has administrative pricing failed to control medical inflation, but such failure could have been predicted from a review of basic economics. Accordingly, to eliminate the deleterious effects of administrative pricing, it is not surprising that the government is gathering information on hospital quality and cost in anticipation of a return to a system in which the price for hospital services is determined by the market. For some hospitals, this will be good news because they will be able to negotiate a more favorable rate of reimbursement. Unfortunately, for some hospitals a market system will be bad news because the government is not going to negotiate a provider contract with every hospital. In short, when the government returns to a market system for pricing of hospital services, competition among hospitals is going to become even more competitive.

  2. Pulp & paper markets cope with high energy prices and growth in Asia : markets for paper, paperboard and woodpulp, 2005-2006

    Treesearch

    Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    \\tPulp and paper markets in the UNECE region were influenced by higher energy prices and demand growth in Asia in 2005 and 2006. Important developments in Europe included the launching of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which was followed by substantial increases in electrical energy prices. High global energy prices pushed up costs of production and prices for pulp...

  3. A stochastic equilibrium model for the North American natural gas market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jifang

    This dissertation is an endeavor in the field of energy modeling for the North American natural gas market using a mixed complementarity formulation combined with the stochastic programming. The genesis of the stochastic equilibrium model presented in this dissertation is the deterministic market equilibrium model developed in [Gabriel, Kiet and Zhuang, 2005]. Based on some improvements that we made to this model, including proving new existence and uniqueness results, we present a multistage stochastic equilibrium model with uncertain demand for the deregulated North American natural gas market using the recourse method of the stochastic programming. The market participants considered by the model are pipeline operators, producers, storage operators, peak gas operators, marketers and consumers. Pipeline operators are described with regulated tariffs but also involve "congestion pricing" as a mechanism to allocate scarce pipeline capacity. Marketers are modeled as Nash-Cournot players in sales to the residential and commercial sectors but price-takers in all other aspects. Consumers are represented by demand functions in the marketers' problem. Producers, storage operators and peak gas operators are price-takers consistent with perfect competition. Also, two types of the natural gas markets are included: the long-term and spot markets. Market participants make both high-level planning decisions (first-stage decisions) in the long-term market and daily operational decisions (recourse decisions) in the spot market subject to their engineering, resource and political constraints, resource constraints as well as market constraints on both the demand and the supply side, so as to simultaneously maximize their expected profits given others' decisions. The model is shown to be an instance of a mixed complementarity problem (MiCP) under minor conditions. The MiCP formulation is derived from applying the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions of the optimization problems

  4. Marketing cigarettes when all else is unavailable: evidence of discounting in price-sensitive neighbourhoods.

    PubMed

    Burton, Suzan; Williams, Kelly; Fry, Rae; Chapman, Kathy; Soulos, Greg; Tang, Anita; Walsberger, Scott; Egger, Sam

    2014-05-01

    Since price is both a key determinant of smoking and one of the few remaining marketing strategies available in countries without point-of-sale tobacco display, this study examines cigarette price variations in the Australian market and assesses whether those variations are consistent with price being used to increase or maintain smoking among price-sensitive groups. An audit of 1739 tobacco retailers was used to collect variations in the price of the best-selling Australian cigarette brand, as well as record retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. We examined variation in pricing across outlet type, demographic variations (socioeconomic level, % in the area under 18 and % born in Australia), remoteness and retailer compliance with tobacco retailing legislation. Multipacks were offered by 27.8% of retailers, with the average pack price in a twin pack $1.32 (or 7.3%) cheaper than a single pack. Prices were significantly lower in some outlet types, in lower socioeconomic postcodes and in those with a higher percentage of people under 18. In contrast with other consumer goods, prices were lower (although not significantly so) outside major cities. The provision of substantial multi-pack discounts and lower prices in postcodes with a higher proportion of price-sensitive smokers (young people and those from lower socioeconomic groups) is consistent with targeted discounts being used as a tobacco marketing strategy. The results support policy interventions to counter selective discounts and to require disclosure of trade-based discounts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Measuring hospital input price increases: The rebased hospital market basket

    PubMed Central

    Freeland, Mark S.; Chulis, George S.; Brown, Aaron P.; Skellan, David; Maple, Brenda T.; Singer, Naphtale; Lemieux, Jeffrey; Arnett, Ross H.

    1991-01-01

    The input prices indexes used in part to set payment rates for Medicare inpatient hospital services in both prospective payment system (PPS) and PPS-excluded hospitals were rebased from 1982 to 1987 beginning with payments for fiscal year 1991. In this article, the issues and evidence used to determine the composition of the revised hospital input price indexes are discussed. One issue is the need for a separate market basket for PPS-excluded hospitals. Also, the payment implications of using hospital-industry versus economywide measures of wage rates as price proxies for the growth in hospital wage rates are addressed. PMID:10113610

  6. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7 Section 51-2.7 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to Public Contracts COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 2-COMMITTEE FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE...

  7. Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulligan, Robert F.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents Hurst exponent signatures from time series of aggregate price indices for the US over the 1975-2011 time period. Though all highly aggregated, these indices include both broad measures of consumer and producer prices. The constellation of prices evolves as a complex system throughout processes of production and distribution, culminating in the final delivery of output to consumers. Massive feedback characterizes this system, where the demand for consumable output determines the demand for the inputs used to produce it, and supply scarcities for the necessary inputs in turn determine the supply of the final product. Prices in both factor and output markets are jointly determined by interdependent supply and demand conditions. Fractal examination of the interplay among market prices would be of interest regardless, but added interest arises from the consideration of how these markets respond to external shocks over the business cycle, particularly monetary expansion. Because the initial impact of monetary injection is localized in specific sectors, the way the impact on prices diffuses throughout the economy is of special interest.

  8. Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

    EPA Science Inventory

    The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

  9. Understanding price discovery in interconnected markets: Generalized Langevin process approach and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenck, Natalya A.; Horvath, Philip A.; Sinha, Amit K.

    2018-02-01

    While the literature on price discovery process and information flow between dominant and satellite market is exhaustive, most studies have applied an approach that can be traced back to Hasbrouck (1995) or Gonzalo and Granger (1995). In this paper, however, we propose a Generalized Langevin process with asymmetric double-well potential function, with co-integrated time series and interconnected diffusion processes to model the information flow and price discovery process in two, a dominant and a satellite, interconnected markets. A simulated illustration of the model is also provided.

  10. OSTEOPOROSIS DRUGS MARKETED IN THE UNITED STATES: GENERIC COMPETITION, PRICING STRUCTURE, AND DISPERSION AMONG PAYERS.

    PubMed

    Balkhi, Bander; Seoane-Vazquez, Enrique; Rodriguez-Monguio, Rosa

    2016-01-01

    Despite the cost of pharmaceuticals, studies assessing prices of osteoporosis drugs are lacking. This study examined trends in prices of osteoporosis drugs in the United States in the period 1988-2014, assessed pricing structure of osteoporosis drugs, and evaluated price trends before and after generic drugs market entry. Data were derived from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the RedBook, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and the Federal Supply Schedule (FSS). Descriptive statistics and segmented linear regression analyses were performed. In the period 1988-2014, osteoporosis drug prices increased faster than the inflation. The average wholesale price (AWP) of generic products at market entry represented 90 percent of the AWP for the corresponding brand. Prices of brand products continued to increase after generic entry. Drug prices showed a significant variation when compared with the brand AWP. The brand wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) was typically set at 83.3 percent of the AWP. Community pharmacies acquired osteoporosis brand drugs at a median of 80.5 percent of the brand AWP. Significant reductions in brand AWP were observed for Medicare Part B (78.5 percent of the brand AWP), generic National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (33.7 percent), and FSS (22.5 percent). There are significant differences in the manufacturer prices, pharmacy acquisition costs and reimbursement rates of osteoporosis drugs. Pharmaceutical companies listed prices are higher than the pharmacy actual estimated acquisitions costs, and the prices used for reimbursement to providers. Generic drugs entry significantly drives down prices; still, prices of branded drugs facing generic competition continued to increase after generic market entry.

  11. Marketing environment dynamics and implications for pricing strategies: the case of home health care.

    PubMed

    Ponsford, B J; Barlow, D

    1999-01-01

    This research reviews the factors affecting the pricing or rate schedules of home health care agencies. A large number of factors affect costs and thus rate structures. The major factors include reimbursement structures with accompanying discount structures, administrative burdens, and risks. Channel issues include bargaining power, competition, and size. Staffing issues affect pricing and product through the provider level, productivity, and quality outcomes. Physician and patient issues include quality concerns and choices. These factors are discussed in light of overall marketing strategy and the interaction of pricing with other marketing controllables such as product, place/distribution, and promotion. Economic and accounting principles are also reviewed with consideration to understanding direct and indirect costs in order to enable negotiators to effectively price health care services.

  12. The influencing factors of China carbon price: a study based on carbon trading market in hubei province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Hao; Lei, Ming

    2018-02-01

    For the carbon market, good trading mechanism is the basis for the healthy development of the carbon trading market. In order to explore the core problem of carbon price formation, our research explores the influencing factors of the price of carbon trading market. After the preliminary statistical analysis, our study found that Hubei Province is in the leading position among seven pilots in the carbon trading volume and the transaction, so our study of carbon price takes Hubei Province as sample of the empirical research. Multi-time series model and ARCH model analysis method are used in the research, we use the data of Hubei carbon trading pilot from June 2014 to December 2016 to carry out empirical research, the results found that industrial income, energy price, government intervention and the number of participating corporation have significant effect on the carbon price, which provides a meaningful reference for the other pilots in-depth study, as well as the construction of a national carbon trading market.

  13. The Entry of Colombian-Sourced Heroin into the US Market: The Relationship between Competition, Price, and Purity

    PubMed Central

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram. PMID:24211155

  14. The Effects of Market Structure on Television News Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wirth, Michael O.; Wollert, James A.

    Multiple regression techniques were used to examine the business side of local television news operations for November 1978. Research questions examined the effect of several variables on local television news prices (advertising rates), including type of ownership, network affiliation/signal type, market size, cable network penetration, market…

  15. Pharma Pricing & Market Access Europe 2016--Health Network Communications' Tenth Annual Conference (February 23-25, 2016--London, UK).

    PubMed

    D'Souza, P

    2016-03-01

    Tighter national budgets and escalating drug prices continue to present challenges for pharmaceutical market access strategies and societal cost of care. As pharmaceutical companies and medical governmental advisory organizations enter tougher negotiations, hospital trusts and other dispensary firms face barriers to receiving the best medical treatment, and as a result patient access is limited. The 2016 HealthNetwork Communications' Pharma Pricing & Market Access Europe meeting brought together pharmaceutical, medical governmental advisory and stakeholders and market access/pricing consultants, to encourage discussions and negotiations into how to improve the drug pricing system and consequential market access strategies while achieving the respective reimbursement and affordability objectives. Copyright 2016 Prous Science, S.A.U. or its licensors. All rights reserved.

  16. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    PubMed

    Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  17. Comparing Generic Drug Markets in Europe and the United States: Prices, Volumes, and Spending.

    PubMed

    Wouters, Olivier J; Kanavos, Panos G; McKEE, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Policy Points: Our study indicates that there are opportunities for cost savings in generic drug markets in Europe and the United States. Regulators should make it easier for generic drugs to reach the market. Regulators and payers should apply measures to stimulate price competition among generic drugmakers and to increase generic drug use. To meaningfully evaluate policy options, it is important to analyze historical context and understand why similar initiatives failed previously. Rising drug prices are putting pressure on health care budgets. Policymakers are assessing how they can save money through generic drugs. We compared generic drug prices and market shares in 13 European countries, using data from 2013, to assess the amount of variation that exists between countries. To place these results in context, we reviewed evidence from recent studies on the prices and use of generics in Europe and the United States. We also surveyed peer-reviewed studies, gray literature, and books published since 2000 to (1) outline existing generic drug policies in European countries and the United States; (2) identify ways to increase generic drug use and to promote price competition among generic drug companies; and (3) explore barriers to implementing reform of generic drug policies, using a historical example from the United States as a case study. The prices and market shares of generics vary widely across Europe. For example, prices charged by manufacturers in Switzerland are, on average, more than 2.5 times those in Germany and more than 6 times those in the United Kingdom, based on the results of a commonly used price index. The proportion of prescriptions filled with generics ranges from 17% in Switzerland to 83% in the United Kingdom. By comparison, the United States has historically had low generic drug prices and high rates of generic drug use (84% in 2013), but has in recent years experienced sharp price increases for some off-patent products. There are policy

  18. How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.; Rivera-Castro, Miguel A.; Miranda, José G. V.; García-Rubio, Raquel

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we analyse price fluctuations with the aim of measuring how long the market takes to adjust prices to weak-form efficiency, i.e., how long it takes for prices to adjust to a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of 0.5. The Hurst exponent is estimated for different time horizons using detrended fluctuation analysis-a method suitable for non-stationary series with trends-in order to identify at which time scale the Hurst exponent is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Using high-frequency share price, exchange rate and stock data, we show how price dynamics exhibited important deviations from efficiency for time periods of up to 15 min; thereafter, price dynamics was consistent with a geometric Brownian motion. The intraday behaviour of the series also indicated that price dynamics at trade opening and close was hardly consistent with efficiency, which would enable investors to exploit price deviations from fundamental values. This result is consistent with intraday volume, volatility and transaction time duration patterns.

  19. Internal conflict, market uniformity, and transparency in price competition between teams☆

    PubMed Central

    Kurschilgen, Michael; Morell, Alexander; Weisel, Ori

    2017-01-01

    The way profits are divided within successful teams imposes different degrees of internal conflict. We experimentally examine how the level of internal conflict, and whether such conflict is transparent to other teams, affects teams' ability to compete vis-à-vis each other, and, consequently, market outcomes. Participants took part in a repeated Bertrand duopoly game between three-player teams which had either the same or different level of internal conflict (uniform vs. mixed). Profit division was either private-pay (high conflict; each member received her own asking price) or equal-pay (low conflict; profits were divided equally). We find that internal conflict leads to (tacit) coordination on high prices in uniform private-pay duopolies, but places private-pay teams at a competitive disadvantage in mixed duopolies. Competition is softened by transparency in uniform markets, but intensified in mixed markets. We propose an explanation of the results and discuss implications for managers and policy makers. (D43, L22, C92) PMID:29180831

  20. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

    PubMed Central

    Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction. PMID:29136004

  1. Market organization and animal genetic resource management: a revealed preference analysis of sheep pricing.

    PubMed

    Tindano, K; Moula, N; Leroy, P; Traoré, A; Antoine-Moussiaux, N

    2017-10-01

    Farm animal genetic resources are threatened worldwide. Participation in markets, while representing a crucial way out of poverty for many smallholders, affects genetic management choices with associated sustainability concerns. This paper proposes a contextualized study of the interactions between markets and animal genetic resources management, in the case of sheep markets in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. It focusses on the organization of marketing chains and the valuation of genetic characteristics by value chain actors. Marketing chain characterization was tackled through semi-structured interviews with 25 exporters and 15 butchers, both specialized in sheep. Moreover, revealed preference methods were applied to analyse the impact of animals' attributes on market pricing. Data were collected from 338 transactions during three different periods: Eid al-Adha, Christmas and New Year period, and a neutral period. The neutral period is understood as a period not close to any event likely to influence the demand for sheep. The results show that physical characteristics such as live weight, height at withers and coat colour have a strong influence on the animals' prices. Live weight has also had an increasing marginal impact on price. The different markets (local butcher, feasts, export market, sacrifices) represent distinct demands for genetic characteristics, entailing interesting consequences for animal genetic resource management. Any breeding programme should therefore take this diversity into account to allow this sector to contribute better to a sustainable development of the country.

  2. Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between the CSI 300 index futures and the spot markets based on high-frequency data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Cui, Weijun; Guo, Yu

    2014-11-01

    The cross-correlation between the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) index futures and the spot markets based on high-frequency data is discussed in this paper. We empirically analyze the cross-correlation by using the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), and investigate further the characteristics of asymmetry, frequency difference, and transmission direction of the cross-correlation. The results indicate that the cross-correlation between the two markets is significant and multifractal. Meanwhile, weak asymmetries exist in the cross-correlation, and higher data frequency results in a lower multifractality degree of the cross-correlation. The causal relationship between the two markets is bidirectional, but the CSI 300 index futures market has greater impact on the spot market.

  3. The entry of Colombian-sourced heroin into the US market: the relationship between competition, price, and purity.

    PubMed

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, George Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Price analysis of multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies marketed in the United States.

    PubMed

    Bin Sawad, Aseel; Seoane-Vazquez, Enrique; Rodriguez-Monguio, Rosa; Turkistani, Fatema

    2016-11-01

    This study assessed trends in the average wholesale price (AWP) at the market entry of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) approved by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the period 1987-2014. DMT regulatory information was derived from the FDA website. The AWPs per unit at market entry data were derived from the Red Book (Truven Health Analytics Inc.). The AWP history for each DMT was collected from its date of approval to 31 December 2014. The FDA approved label defined daily dose (DDD) for adult patients was obtained from FDA approved labels. The AWP per DDD and the AWP/DDD per year of therapy were computed. Descriptive statistics, Wilcoxon tests, t-test, and multiple linear regression were performed. The statistical significance level was set at 0.05. The FDA approved 12 multiple sclerosis (MS) DMTs, including five new drug applications (NDAs) and seven biologic license applications (BLAs) as of 31 December 2014. The FDA granted orphan designation to five DMTs. There was one DMT approved by the FDA in the 1980s, three in the 1990s, three in 2000s, and five in the period 2010-2014. The market entry inflation-adjusted AWP per DDD was $10.23 for the first DMT (mitoxantrone hydrochloride) that was approved in the 1980s. The median market entry inflation-adjusted AWP per DDD was $12.41 (interquartile range [IQR] = 4.51) for DMTs approved in the 1990s, $71.26 (IQR = 58.35) in the 2000s, and $172.56 (IQR = 84.97) in the period 2010-2014. The median AWP per DDD was statistically significantly different (p = 0.011) for orphan (median = $41.82, IQR = 56.077) compared to non-orphan drugs (median = $171.32, IQR = 199.29). Year of market entry was positively associated with DMT prices at US market entry (p = 0.01). The AWP per DDD for DMTs at market entry increased substantially over time. The increase in DMTs prices exceeded the general consumer price index.

  5. Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

    2002-01-01

    There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government

  6. Design of a pulse oximeter for price sensitive emerging markets.

    PubMed

    Jones, Z; Woods, E; Nielson, D; Mahadevan, S V

    2010-01-01

    While the global market for medical devices is located primarily in developed countries, price sensitive emerging markets comprise an attractive, underserved segment in which products need a unique set of value propositions to be competitive. A pulse oximeter was designed expressly for emerging markets, and a novel feature set was implemented to reduce the cost of ownership and improve the usability of the device. Innovations included the ability of the device to generate its own electricity, a built in sensor which cuts down on operating costs, and a graphical, symbolic user interface. These features yield an average reduction of over 75% in the device cost of ownership versus comparable pulse oximeters already on the market.

  7. The case for OFSMOKE: how tobacco price regulation is needed to promote the health of markets, government revenue and the public

    PubMed Central

    Branston, J Robert; Sweanor, David

    2010-01-01

    Mainstream economic theory outlines four main causes of market failure and it is already well established that two of these (information failure and externalities) exist in a tobacco market. A third cause of market failure, market power, is also a serious problem in many tobacco markets. Market power—combined with unintended and often overlooked consequences of tobacco tax policies, notably that gradual increases in specific taxes may allow the industry to disguise significant price increases—has, at least in high income countries, given cigarette manufacturers considerable pricing power and profits. This paper examines ways this market failure could be addressed and proposes as a solution a system of price cap regulation wherein a cap is placed on the pre-tax cigarette manufacturers' price but not on the retail price that consumers face. Well established in the utilities industry, price cap regulation would set a maximum price that cigarette companies can charge for their product based on an assessment of the genuine costs each firm faces in its operations and an assumption about the efficiency savings it would be expected to make. Such a system would achieve three main benefits. First, it would address the problem of market failure and excess profits while simultaneously allowing current tobacco control policies, including tax and price increases, to expand—thus tax increases would remain a central tenet of tobacco control policies and retail prices could continue to increase. Second, it would increase government revenue by transferring the excess profits from the industry to the government purse. Third, it would bring numerous public health benefits. In addition to addressing market power, while simultaneously allowing tobacco control policies to expand, it could offer a means of preventing down-trading to cheaper products and controlling unwanted industry practices such as cigarette smuggling, price fixing and marketing to the young. The paper outlines in

  8. Study on probability distribution of prices in electricity market: A case study of zhejiang province, china

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, H.; Chen, B.; Han, Z. X.; Zhang, F. Q.

    2009-05-01

    The study on probability density function and distribution function of electricity prices contributes to the power suppliers and purchasers to estimate their own management accurately, and helps the regulator monitor the periods deviating from normal distribution. Based on the assumption of normal distribution load and non-linear characteristic of the aggregate supply curve, this paper has derived the distribution of electricity prices as the function of random variable of load. The conclusion has been validated with the electricity price data of Zhejiang market. The results show that electricity prices obey normal distribution approximately only when supply-demand relationship is loose, whereas the prices deviate from normal distribution and present strong right-skewness characteristic. Finally, the real electricity markets also display the narrow-peak characteristic when undersupply occurs.

  9. Validity of urinary monoamine assay sales under the “spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model”

    PubMed Central

    Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Uncini, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Spot baseline urinary monoamine assays have been used in medicine for over 50 years as a screening test for monoamine-secreting tumors, such as pheochromocytoma and carcinoid syndrome. In these disease states, when the result of a spot baseline monoamine assay is above the specific value set by the laboratory, it is an indication to obtain a 24-hour urine sample to make a definitive diagnosis. There are no defined applications where spot baseline urinary monoamine assays can be used to diagnose disease or other states directly. No peer-reviewed published original research exists which demonstrates that these assays are valid in the treatment of individual patients in the clinical setting. Since 2001, urinary monoamine assay sales have been promoted for numerous applications under the “spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model”. There is no published peer-reviewed original research that defines the scientific foundation upon which the claims for these assays are made. On the contrary, several articles have been published that discredit various aspects of the model. To fill the void, this manuscript is a comprehensive review of the scientific foundation and claims put forth by laboratories selling urinary monoamine assays under the spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model. PMID:21912487

  10. Association of market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices: 1999 through 2001.

    PubMed

    McCue, Michael J; Kim, Tae Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, there has been a decline in the number of hospital acquisitions. Using data from 1999 through 2001, we examined the relationship between market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices. Using an ordinary least squares regression model, we found that acquiring multihospital systems paid a higher price for larger hospitals with fewer unoccupied beds and greater profitability. Although only marginally significant, we also found that acquiring hospital systems paid a higher purchase price for hospitals in near urban markets and for hospitals located in the Central region of the United States. From a policy standpoint, we found no significant difference in the purchase price paid between for-profit and nonprofit hospitals.

  11. Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

    PubMed

    Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

    2003-03-14

    We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

  12. Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

    2003-03-01

    We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

  13. The impact of condom prices on sales in social marketing programs.

    PubMed

    Harvey, P D

    1994-01-01

    The issue of pricing contraceptives in family planning programs is becoming more and more important. What is the relationship between consumer prices and demand, and how can we strike the correct balance between the two? This report examines the correlation between consumer prices for condoms, expressed as a percentage of per-capita gross national product, and per-capita sales of condoms in 24 social marketing programs. The correlation that emerges is strong and negative: Even when the data are controlled for age of program and other independent variables, there is a clear negative correlation between prices and contraceptive sales in these programs. The conclusion is clear that condom prices must be set very low--well below the equivalent of 1 percent of per-capita gross national product for a year's supply--in order to achieve satisfactory prevalence for condoms in either a family-planning or an AIDS-prevention context.

  14. Examining the Influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women.

    PubMed

    McGuirt, Jared T; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W; Keyserling, Thomas C; Ammerman, Alice S

    2014-01-01

    To examine the influence of farmers' market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers' markets, among low-income women. Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers' markets given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Eastern North Carolina. A total of 37 low-income women of childbearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Willingness to shop at a farmers' market. Fisher's exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers' markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based on a positive deviance framework. Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers' market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than a quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Future farmers' market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. Copyright © 2014 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Examining the influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women

    PubMed Central

    McGuirt, Jared T.; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B.; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W.; Keyserling, Thomas C.; Ammerman, Alice S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To examine the influence of farmers’ market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets, among low-income women. Design: Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers’ market given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Setting: Eastern North Carolina. Participants: Thirty seven low-income women of child-bearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Phenomenon of Interest: Willingness to shop at a farmers’ market. Analysis: Fisher’s exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers’ markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based upon a positive deviance framework. Results: Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers’ market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than the quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Conclusions and Implications: Future farmers’ market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. PMID:24201077

  16. Marginal Cost Pricing in a World without Perfect Competition: Implications for Electricity Markets with High Shares of Low Marginal Cost Resources

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Frew, Bethany A.; Clark, Kara; Bloom, Aaron P.

    A common approach to regulating electricity is through auction-based competitive wholesale markets. The goal of this approach is to provide a reliable supply of power at the lowest reasonable cost to the consumer. This necessitates market structures and operating rules that ensure revenue sufficiency for all generators needed for resource adequacy purposes. Wholesale electricity markets employ marginal-cost pricing to provide cost-effective dispatch such that resources are compensated for their operational costs. However, marginal-cost pricing alone cannot guarantee cost recovery outside of perfect competition, and electricity markets have at least six attributes that preclude them from functioning as perfectly competitive markets.more » These attributes include market power, externalities, public good attributes, lack of storage, wholesale price caps, and ineffective demand curve. Until (and unless) these failures are ameliorated, some form of corrective action(s) will be necessary to improve market efficiency so that prices can correctly reflect the needed level of system reliability. Many of these options necessarily involve some form of administrative or out-of-market actions, such as scarcity pricing, capacity payments, bilateral or other out-of-market contracts, or some hybrid combination. A key focus with these options is to create a connection between the electricity market and long-term reliability/loss-of-load expectation targets, which are inherently disconnected in the native markets because of the aforementioned market failures. The addition of variable generation resources can exacerbate revenue sufficiency and resource adequacy concerns caused by these underlying market failures. Because variable generation resources have near-zero marginal costs, they effectively suppress energy prices and reduce the capacity factors of conventional generators through the merit-order effect in the simplest case of a convex market; non-convexities can also suppress

  17. Impacts of regulated competition on pricing in Chinese pharmaceutical market under urban employee basic medical insurance.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Mingyue; Wu, Jing

    2017-06-01

    Examine the effects of regulated competition on the drug pricing in China. Based on product-level data, a regression method was employed for pricing by using data from Tianjin Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) database. The market competition measures distinguished generic competition within the same molecule from therapeutic competition within the same therapeutic class. The increases in pricing are inversely related to the number of generic competitions. The generic sub-group results vary from the originator sub-group. For the generics, generic competition has a significantly reduced effect on the price; however, only therapeutic competition has a significantly reduced effect on the originator price. Regulated competition has a positive role in shaping the pharmaceutical market. Furthermore, regulated competition affects the price differently for the sub-groups. The promotion of competition between generic and originator in order to reap full competition benefit and reduce frictions among policies are necessary.

  18. Determinants of heroin retail prices in metropolitan France: Discounts, purity and local markets.

    PubMed

    Lahaie, Emmanuel; Janssen, Eric; Cadet-Taïrou, Agnès

    2016-09-01

    Field studies have indicated a recent increase in heroin availability and use in France, and yet very little is known about the mechanisms underlying heroin retail prices. This paper offers a first attempt at identifying the determinants of heroin pricing, to measure quantity discounts and assess the influence of purity on street prices, while controlling for a geographical effect. Data on heroin samples were collected during 2011 in seven urban areas of metropolitan France. Ordinary least squares regression was used to model the associations between price, quantity, purity and other independent variables. Quantity remains the most influential variable on heroin pricing. We estimate that a 10% increase in the size of a transaction leads to a 2.3% decrease in the unit price. Assessed purity proved to be significant, although in modest proportion. Sociodemographic characteristics, such as gender, users' experience and relationships with dealers, proved to be insignificant. Heroin retail prices vary according to a geographical gradient related to the routes of entry and distribution. As a credence good, heroin retail prices in France are affected by more than simply the traditional supply and demand relationship. The results of this study also underline the limitations of a quantitative framework and should be complemented by further ethnographic research to obtain an in-depth understanding of local markets. Policies should be designed to better take local disparities into account.[Lahaie E, Janssen E, Cadet-Taïrou A. Determinants of heroin retail prices in metropolitan France:Discounts, purity and local markets. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:597-604]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  19. Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Feng

    This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed

  20. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projectedmore » costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging

  1. Oncogenic targets, magnitude of benefit, and market pricing of antineoplastic drugs.

    PubMed

    Amir, Eitan; Seruga, Bostjan; Martinez-Lopez, Joaquin; Kwong, Ryan; Pandiella, Atanasio; Tannock, Ian F; Ocaña, Alberto

    2011-06-20

    The relationship between market pricing of new anticancer drugs and the magnitude of clinical benefit caused by them has not been reported. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that evaluated approved new agents for solid tumors by the U.S. Food and Drug administration since the year 2000 were assessed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were extracted for time-to-event end points described for each RCT. HRs were pooled for three groups: agents directed against a specific molecular target, for which the target population is selected by a biomarker (group A); less specific biologic targeted agents (group B); and chemotherapeutic agents (group C). Monthly market prices of these different drugs were compared. For overall survival (OS), the pooled HR was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.81) for group A (six drugs, six trials); it was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.83) for group B (seven drugs, 14 trials); and it was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79 to 0.90) for group C (eight drugs, 12 trials). For progression-free survival (PFS), the pooled HR was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.36 to 0.49) for group A (six drugs, seven trials); it was 0.57 (95% CI, 0.51 to 0.64) for group B (seven drugs, 14 trials); and it was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.85) for group C (six drugs, 10 trials). Tests for heterogeneity between subgroups were highly significant for PFS (P < .001) and OS (P = .02). The median monthly prices for standard doses of drugs were $5375 for group A, $5644 for group B, and $6584 for group C (P = .87). New agents with specific molecular targets are clinically the most beneficial, but their monthly market prices are not significantly different from those of other anticancer agents.

  2. Preliminary survey of markets and prices of forest products in the Del-Mar-Va Peninsula

    Treesearch

    George E. Doverspike

    1949-01-01

    This preliminary survey was designed to explore the present methods of marketing farm products and the problems involved in collecting price information about primary forest products. No attempt was made to initiate a permanent price-reporting service, since that was beyond the scope of the survey. However, certain price information was obtained; it is shown in table 2...

  3. Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

  4. Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatterjee, A.; Chakrabarti, B. K.

    2006-12-01

    We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), while the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution, for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

  5. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a duopoly market pricing competition and cooperation under the carbon emissions cap.

    PubMed

    Jian, Ming; He, Hua; Ma, Changsong; Wu, Yan; Yang, Hao

    2017-05-17

    This article studies the price competition and cooperation in a duopoly that is subjected to carbon emissions cap. The study assumes that in a departure from the classical Bertrand game, there is still a market for both firms' goods regardless of the product price, even though production capacity is limited by carbon emissions regulation. Through the decentralized decision making of both firms under perfect information, the results are unstable. The firm with the lower maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation and the firm with the higher maximum production capacity both seek market price cooperation. By designing an internal carbon credits trading mechanism, we can ensure that the production capacity of the firm with the higher maximum production capacity under carbon emissions regulation reaches price equilibrium. Also, the negotiation power of the duopoly would affect the price equilibrium.

  6. The impact of South Korea's new drug-pricing policy on market competition among off-patent drugs.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Hye-Young; Kim, Hyungmin; Godman, Brian; Reich, Michael R

    2015-01-01

    A new pricing policy was introduced in Korea in April 2012 with the aim of strengthening competition among off-patent drugs by eliminating price gaps between originators and generics. Examine the effect of newly implemented pricing policy. Retrospectively examining the effects through extracting from the National Health Insurance claims data a 30-month panel dataset (January 2011-June 2013) containing consumption data in four major therapeutic classes (antihypertensives, lipid-lowering drugs, antiulcerants and antidepressants). Proxies for market competition were examined before and after the policy. The new pricing policy did not enhance competition among off-patent drugs. In fact, price dispersion significantly decreased as opposed to the expected change. Originator-to-generic utilization increased 6.12 times (p = 0.000) after the new policy. The new pricing policy made no impact on competition among off-patent drugs. Competition in the off-patent market cannot be enhanced unless both supply and demand side measures are coordinated.

  7. Price elasticities in the German Statutory Health Insurance market before and after the health care reform of 2009.

    PubMed

    Pendzialek, Jonas B; Danner, Marion; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

    2015-05-01

    This paper investigates the change in price elasticity of health insurance choice in Germany after a reform of health insurance contributions. Using a comprehensive data set of all sickness funds between 2004 and 2013, price elasticities are calculated both before and after the reform for the entire market. The general price elasticity is found to be increased more than 4-fold from -0.81 prior to the reform to -3.53 after the reform. By introducing a new kind of health insurance contribution the reform seemingly increased the price elasticity of insured individuals to a more appropriate level under the given market parameters. However, further unintended consequences of the new contribution scheme were massive losses of market share for the more expensive sickness funds and therefore an undivided focus on pricing as the primary competitive element to the detriment of quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Gum Producers Can Improve Quality Of Gum Marketed and Get Higher Prices

    Treesearch

    Ralph W. Clements

    1979-01-01

    Acid waste from over-treatment and old, wornout iron cups have contributed significantly to the generally poor quality of gum marketed. Today producers are reluctant to purchase new cups and gutters and invest up to $1.80 per tree for production when the market price for gum averages 14.54 per pound annually. Guidelines are given for improving the quality by...

  9. The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

    PubMed

    Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

    2009-12-01

    The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

  10. Basic Knowledge for Market Principle: Approaches to the Price Coordination Mechanism by Using Optimization Theory and Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiyoshi, Eitaro; Masuda, Kazuaki

    On the basis of market fundamentalism, new types of social systems with the market mechanism such as electricity trading markets and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission trading markets have been developed. However, there are few textbooks in science and technology which present the explanation that Lagrange multipliers can be interpreted as market prices. This tutorial paper explains that (1) the steepest descent method for dual problems in optimization, and (2) Gauss-Seidel method for solving the stationary conditions of Lagrange problems with market principles, can formulate the mechanism of market pricing, which works even in the information-oriented modern society. The authors expect readers to acquire basic knowledge on optimization theory and algorithms related to economics and to utilize them for designing the mechanism of more complicated markets.

  11. How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field.

    PubMed

    Sonnemann, Ulrich; Camerer, Colin F; Fox, Craig R; Langer, Thomas

    2013-07-16

    A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics.

  12. How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field

    PubMed Central

    Sonnemann, Ulrich; Camerer, Colin F.; Fox, Craig R.; Langer, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics. PMID:23818628

  13. Stochastic volatility of the futures prices of emission allowances: A Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jungmu; Park, Yuen Jung; Ryu, Doojin

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the stochastic nature of the spot volatility of emission allowances is crucial for risk management in emissions markets. In this study, by adopting a stochastic volatility model with or without jumps to represent the dynamics of European Union Allowances (EUA) futures prices, we estimate the daily volatilities and model parameters by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for stochastic volatility (SV), stochastic volatility with return jumps (SVJ) and stochastic volatility with correlated jumps (SVCJ) models. Our empirical results reveal three important features of emissions markets. First, the data presented herein suggest that EUA futures prices exhibit significant stochastic volatility. Second, the leverage effect is noticeable regardless of whether or not jumps are included. Third, the inclusion of jumps has a significant impact on the estimation of the volatility dynamics. Finally, the market becomes very volatile and large jumps occur at the beginning of a new phase. These findings are important for policy makers and regulators.

  14. The strategic use of forward contracts: Applications in power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Jeffrey Scott

    This dissertation develops three theoretical models that analyze forward trading by firms with market power. The models are discussed in the context of recently restructured power markets, but the results can be applied more generally. The first model considers the profitability of large firms in markets with limited economies of scale and free entry. When large firms apply their market power, small firms benefit from the high prices without incurring the costs of restricted output. When entry is considered, and profit opportunity is determined by the cost of entry, this asymmetry creates the "curse of market power;" the long-run profits of large firms are reduced because of their market power. I suggest ways that large power producers can cope with the curse of market power, including the sale of long-term forward contracts. Past research has shown that forward contracts can demonstrate commitment to aggressive behavior to a competing duopolist. I add explicitly modeled entry to this literature, and make the potential entrants the audience of the forward sale. The existence of a forward market decreases equilibrium entry, increases the profits of large firms, and enhances economic efficiency. In the second model, a consumer representative, such as a state government or regulated distribution utility, bargains in the forward market on behalf of end-consumers who cannot organize together in the spot market. The ability to organize in forward markets allows consumers to encourage economic efficiency. When multiple producers are considered, I find that the ability to offer contracts also increases consumer surplus by decreasing the producers' profits. In some specifications of the model, consumers are able to capture the full gains from trade. The third model of this dissertation considers the ability of a large producer to take advantage of anonymity by randomly alternating between forward sales and forward purchases. The large producer uses its market power to

  15. Next Day Price Forecasting in Deregulated Market by Combination of Artificial Neural Network and ARIMA Time Series Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Areekul, Phatchakorn; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Urasaki, Naomitsu; Yona, Atsushi

    Electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to power producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets, when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper proposed a method to predict hourly electricity prices for next-day electricity markets by combination methodology of ARIMA and ANN models. The proposed method is examined on the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional in year 2006. Comparison of forecasting performance with the proposed ARIMA, ANN and combination (ARIMA-ANN) models are presented. Empirical results indicate that an ARIMA-ANN model can improve the price forecasting accuracy.

  16. Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; economic uses fact sheet 07: markets and log prices

    Treesearch

    Rocky Mountain Research Station USDA Forest Service

    2004-01-01

    Markets and prices for logs vary widely across the West, fluctuating from place to place in response to regional variables and hauling costs. This fact sheet discusses those variables, locality of log markets, markets for low-value logs, and caveats to consider when using My Fuel Treatment Planner.

  17. Nonlinear bivariate dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets: A perspective from Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Chen, Shu-Peng

    2011-01-01

    Nonlinear dependency between characteristic financial and commodity market quantities (variables) is crucially important, especially between trading volume and market price. Studies on nonlinear dependency between price and volume can provide practical insights into market trading characteristics, as well as the theoretical understanding of market dynamics. Actually, nonlinear dependency and its underlying dynamical mechanisms between price and volume can help researchers and technical analysts in understanding the market dynamics by integrating the market variables, instead of investigating them in the current literature. Therefore, for investigating nonlinear dependency of price-volume relationships in agricultural commodity futures markets in China and the US, we perform a new statistical test to detect cross-correlations and apply a new methodology called Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA), which is an efficient algorithm to analyze two spatially or temporally correlated time series. We discuss theoretically the relationship between the bivariate cross-correlation exponent and the generalized Hurst exponents for time series of respective variables. We also perform an empirical study and find that there exists a power-law cross-correlation between them, and that multifractal features are significant in all the analyzed agricultural commodity futures markets.

  18. A reaction-diffusion model for market fluctuations - A relation between price change and traded volumes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuvan, Steven; Bier, Martin

    2018-02-01

    Two decades ago Bak et al. (1997) [3] proposed a reaction-diffusion model to describe market fluctuations. In the model buyers and sellers diffuse from opposite ends of a 1D interval that represents a price range. Trades occur when buyers and sellers meet. We show analytically and numerically that the model well reproduces the square-root relation between traded volumes and price changes that is observed in real-life markets. The result is remarkable as this relation has commonly been explained in terms of more elaborate trader strategies. We furthermore explain why the square-root relation is robust under model modifications and we show how real-life bond market data exhibit the square-root relation.

  19. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    PubMed

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

  20. Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M; Sousa, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praca, Isabel; Faia, Ricardo; Pires, Eduardo Jose Solteiro

    2016-08-01

    The increase of distributed energy resources, mainly based on renewable sources, requires new solutions that are able to deal with this type of resources' particular characteristics (namely, the renewable energy sources intermittent nature). The smart grid concept is increasing its consensus as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market, in different contexts. The price forecasts are performed using artificial neural networks, providing a specific database with the expected prices in the different market types, at each time. This database is then used as input by an evolutionary particle swarm optimization process, which originates the most advantage participation portfolio for the market player. The proposed approach is tested and validated with simulations performed in multiagent simulator of competitive electricity markets, using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator-MIBEL.

  1. Sex, price and preferences: accounting for unsafe sexual practices in prostitution markets.

    PubMed

    Adriaenssens, Stef; Hendrickx, Jef

    2012-06-01

    Unsafe sexual practices are persistent in prostitution interactions: one in four contacts can be called unsafe. The determinants of this are still matter for debate. We account for the roles played by clients' preferences and the hypothetical price premium of unsafe sexual practices with the help of a large dataset of clients' self-reported commercial sexual transactions in Belgium and The Netherlands. Almost 25,000 reports were collected, representing the whole gamut of prostitution market segments. The first set of explanations consists of an analysis of the price-fixing elements of paid sex. With the help of the so-called hedonic pricing method we test for the existence of a price incentive for unsafe sex. In accordance with the results from studies in some prostitution markets in the developing world, the study replicates a significant wage penalty for condom use of an estimated 7.2 per cent, confirmed in both multilevel and fixed-effects regressions. The second part of the analysis reconstructs the demand side basis of this wage penalty: the consistent preference of clients of prostitution for unsafe sex. This study is the first to document empirically clients' preference for intercourse without a condom, with the help of a multilevel ordinal regression. © 2011 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. The effects of drug market regulation on pharmaceutical prices in Europe: overview and evidence from the market of ACE inhibitors

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    This study provides an overview of policy measures targeting pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe and analyses their impact on originator pharmaceutical prices. Panel data methods are used to examine the market of ACE Inhibitors in six European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom) over period 1991-2006. We find that although some measures are effective in reducing originator prices, others appear to have an insignificant effect. Results suggest that supply side measures such as mandatory generic substitution, regressive pharmacy mark-ups and claw-backs are effective in reducing pharmaceuticals prices. Results are not as strong for demand side measures. Profit controls and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis appear to have a negative effect on prices, while results on reference pricing are inconclusive. Findings also indicate that, although originator prices are not immediately affected by generic entry, they may be influenced by changes in generic prices post patent expiry. PMID:22828053

  3. U.S. Residential Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices, Q4 2013 Benchmarks: Cash Purchase, Fair Market Value, and Prepaid Lease Transaction Prices

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Davidson, C.; James, T. L.; Margolis, R.

    The price of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States (i.e., the cost to the system owner) has dropped precipitously in recent years, led by substantial reductions in global PV module prices. This report provides a Q4 2013 update for residential PV systems, based on an objective methodology that closely approximates the book value of a PV system. Several cases are benchmarked to represent common variation in business models, labor rates, and module choice. We estimate a weighted-average cash purchase price of $3.29/W for modeled standard-efficiency, polycrystalline-silicon residential PV systems installed in the United States. This is a 46% declinemore » from the 2013-dollar-adjusted price reported in the Q4 2010 benchmark report. In addition, this report frames the cash purchase price in the context of key price metrics relevant to the continually evolving landscape of third-party-owned PV systems by benchmarking the minimum sustainable lease price and the fair market value of residential PV systems.« less

  4. The Questionable Economic Case for Value-Based Drug Pricing in Market Health Systems.

    PubMed

    Pauly, Mark V

    2017-02-01

    This article investigates the economic theory and interpretation of the concept of "value-based pricing" for new breakthrough drugs with no close substitutes in a context (such as the United States) in which a drug firm with market power sells its product to various buyers. The interpretation is different from that in a country that evaluates medicines for a single public health insurance plan or a set of heavily regulated plans. It is shown that there will not ordinarily be a single value-based price but rather a schedule of prices with different volumes of buyers at each price. Hence, it is incorrect to term a particular price the value-based price, or to argue that the profit-maximizing monopoly price is too high relative to some hypothesized value-based price. When effectiveness of treatment or value of health is heterogeneous, the profit-maximizing price can be higher than that associated with assumed values of quality-adjusted life-years. If the firm sets a price higher than the value-based price for a set of potential buyers, the optimal strategy of the buyers is to decline to purchase that drug. The profit-maximizing price will come closer to a unique value-based price if demand is less heterogeneous. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    PubMed Central

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  6. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    PubMed

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  7. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  8. Reform of prescription drug reimbursement and pricing in the German social health insurance market: a comparison of three scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gress, Stefan; Niebuhr, Dea; May, Uwe; Wasem, Jürgen

    2007-01-01

    We review regulation of two important parameters for third-party payers and manufacturers of prescription drugs: regulation of reimbursement and pricing. We find that centralised regulation of reimbursement and pricing prevails in the 15 original EU member countries (EU-15) and in European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries. Compared with countries such as Switzerland, The Netherlands, France and England, regulation in the German social health insurance system is rather unique. First, market approval is nearly always equivalent to reimbursement. Second, manufacturers are free to determine prices but internal reference prices restrict them from actually doing so for generics and therapeutic substitutes. In order to contain rising expenditures for prescription drugs in Germany, and to set incentives for physicians to consider the costs as well as the benefits of prescriptions, three reform scenarios are feasible. The first scenario maintains centralised reimbursement and centralised pricing; the second maintains centralised reimbursement but switches to decentralised pricing (similar to social health insurance in Israel and Medicare in the US). Third-party payers would be able to negotiate with manufacturers about discounts and market shares for genetic and therapeutic substitutes. In the third scenario, pricing and reimbursement would be decentralised (similar to private health insurance in the US). We suggest that the second scenario is a viable compromise between consumer protection and a more competitive and cost-effective market for prescription drugs in German social health insurance and other similar markets for prescription drugs.

  9. [Discussion on releasing price of Chinese patent medicine to market economy to achieve sustainable development].

    PubMed

    Long, Xingchao; Huang, Luqi; Jiang, Erguo; Zhou, Yonghong; Xu, Yanfeng; Zheng, Shuhua; Ning, Xiaoling; Liu, Hongwei; Chen, Lin

    2012-02-01

    To analyze costs of the traditional Chinese medicine industry focusing on production costs. Data of 50 planted Chinese herbal medicines and 50 wild Chinese herbal medicines were summarized and analyzed to see the changes of price of Chinese herbal medicines. The derivative problems of limited price were analyzed by crude drug, quality of Chinese medicine and sustainable utilization of resource. The price of Chinese medicine shall be adapted to sustainable development of market economy.

  10. Wealth and price distribution by diffusive approximation in a repeated prediction market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele

    2017-04-01

    The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of a repeated prediction market model is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth difference can be reliably exploited to compute all the quantities of interest in all the acceptable parameter space. When the risk aversion of the trader is high enough, we are able to derive an explicit closed-form solution for the price distribution which is asymptotically correct.

  11. Gas-kinetic theory and Boltzmann equation of share price within an equilibrium market hypothesis and ad hoc strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, M.

    2000-09-01

    Recent observations have indicated that the traditional equilibrium market hypothesis (EMH; also known as Efficient Market Hypothesis) is unrealistic. It is shown here that it is the analog of a Boltzmann equation in physics, thus having some bad properties of mean-field approximations like a Gaussian distribution of price fluctuations. A kinetic theory for prices can be simply derived, considering in a first approach that market actors have all identical relaxation times, and solved within a Chapman-Enskog like formalism. In closing the set of equations, (i) an equation of state with a pressure and (ii) the equilibrium (isothermal) equation for the price (taken as the order parameter) of a stock as a function of the volume of money available are obtained.

  12. Investor structure and the price-volume relationship in a continuous double auction market: An agent-based modeling perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wei; Bi, Zhengzheng; Shen, Dehua

    2017-02-01

    This paper investigates the impact of investor structure on the price-volume relationship by simulating a continuous double auction market. Connected with the underlying mechanisms of the price-volume relationship, i.e., the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH) and the Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis (SIAH), the simulation results show that: (1) there exists a strong lead-lag relationship between the return volatility and trading volume when the number of informed investors is close to the number of uninformed investors in the market; (2) as more and more informed investors entering the market, the lead-lag relationship becomes weaker and weaker, while the contemporaneous relationship between the return volatility and trading volume becomes more prominent; (3) when the informed investors are in absolute majority, the market can achieve the new equilibrium immediately. Therefore, we can conclude that the investor structure is a key factor in affecting the price-volume relationship.

  13. Testing for unit root bilinearity in the Brazilian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabak, Benjamin M.

    2007-11-01

    In this paper a simple test for detecting bilinearity in a stochastic unit root process is used to test for the presence of nonlinear unit roots in Brazilian equity shares. The empirical evidence for a set of 53 individual stocks, after adjusting for GARCH effects, suggests that for more than 66%, the hypothesis of unit root bilinearity is accepted. Therefore, the dynamics of Brazilian share prices is in conformity with this type of nonlinearity. These nonlinearities in spot prices may emerge due to the sophistication of the derivatives market.

  14. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. Methods We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. Results We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. Conclusion The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased

  15. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

    2014-05-08

    Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

  16. Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Kun; Sun, Yi; Qian, Xin

    2017-03-01

    With the development of the social network, the interaction between investors in stock market became more fast and convenient. Thus, investor sentiment which can influence their investment decisions may be quickly spread and magnified through the network, and to a certain extent the stock market can be affected. This paper collected the user comments data from a popular professional social networking site of China stock market called Xueqiu, then the investor sentiment data can be obtained through semantic analysis. The dynamic analysis on relationship between investor sentiment and stock market is proposed based on Thermal Optimal Path (TOP) method. The results show that the sentiment data was not always leading over stock market price, and it can be used to predict the stock price only when the stock has high investor attention.

  17. Price dynamics of the financial markets using the stochastic differential equation for a potential double well

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, L. S.; Miranda, L. L. B.

    2018-01-01

    We have used the Itô's stochastic differential equation for the double well with additive white noise as a mathematical model for price dynamics of the financial market. We have presented a model which allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents, with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the β parameter that represents the force of the randomness term of the model.

  18. The role of benchmark crudes in crude oil pricing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wildblood, P.

    1993-12-31

    Most of the world`s oil, whether sold on a spot basis or as part of a term contract, will be priced on a relationship with one or other of a small number of marker crude oils. Generally, the markers used are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Alaskan North Slope (ANS) for crude oil coming into North and South America; Dubai or Oman for crudes being delivered into the Far Eastern markets; and Brent for any crude being delivered into Europe. For a variety of reasons, over the laster two years, Brent blend has become more predominant in the pricing processmore » for crude oils throughout the world. This has resulted in the fact that, directly or indirectly, Brent is now used to price approximately 65% of the world`s crude oil. So why is it that a crude oil with a comparatively small production base of around 700,000 barrels per day has now come to dominate the pricing of the lion`s share of the world`s crude oil? The answer to this question is discussed.« less

  19. Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles

    PubMed Central

    Levine, Sheen S.; Apfelbaum, Evan P.; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L.; Zajac, Edward J.; Stark, David

    2014-01-01

    Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others’ decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity. PMID:25404313

  20. Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles.

    PubMed

    Levine, Sheen S; Apfelbaum, Evan P; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L; Zajac, Edward J; Stark, David

    2014-12-30

    Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others' decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity.

  1. Universal scaling and nonlinearity of aggregate price impact in financial markets.

    PubMed

    Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2018-01-01

    How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different time scales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal nonlinear shape for trades aggregated on any intraday scale. Its shape varies little across instruments, but drastically different master curves are obtained for order-volume and -sign impact. The scaling is largely determined by the relevant Hurst exponents. We further show that extreme order-flow imbalance is not associated with large returns. To the contrary, it is observed when the price is pinned to a particular level. Prices move only when there is sufficient balance in the local order flow. In fact, the probability that a trade changes the midprice falls to zero with increasing (absolute) order-sign bias along an arc-shaped curve for all intraday scales. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption of linear aggregate impact. They imply that market dynamics on all intraday time scales are shaped by correlations and bilateral adaptation in the flows of liquidity provision and taking.

  2. Universal scaling and nonlinearity of aggregate price impact in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

    2018-01-01

    How and why stock prices move is a centuries-old question still not answered conclusively. More recently, attention shifted to higher frequencies, where trades are processed piecewise across different time scales. Here we reveal that price impact has a universal nonlinear shape for trades aggregated on any intraday scale. Its shape varies little across instruments, but drastically different master curves are obtained for order-volume and -sign impact. The scaling is largely determined by the relevant Hurst exponents. We further show that extreme order-flow imbalance is not associated with large returns. To the contrary, it is observed when the price is pinned to a particular level. Prices move only when there is sufficient balance in the local order flow. In fact, the probability that a trade changes the midprice falls to zero with increasing (absolute) order-sign bias along an arc-shaped curve for all intraday scales. Our findings challenge the widespread assumption of linear aggregate impact. They imply that market dynamics on all intraday time scales are shaped by correlations and bilateral adaptation in the flows of liquidity provision and taking.

  3. Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

    2016-03-01

    The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

  4. Analysis of Commercial Pricing Factors: A Framework for Commercial Item Pricing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-03-01

    24 A. INTRODUCTION ...................................24 B. PRICING THEORIES ...............................25 1. Market Theory ...25 2. Transactional Cost Economics .................30 3. Game or Bargaining Theory ....................35 C. CURRENT PRICE...from Congressional intent to have the Government acquisition process rely on market forces to determine fair and reasonable prices. (Ref. 22, p. 2

  5. 77 FR 38553 - Proposed Modification to Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-28

    ...The Department of Commerce (``Department'') proposes to modify its regulation which states that the Department normally will use the price that a nonmarket economy (``NME'') producer pays to a market economy supplier when a factor of production is purchased from a market economy supplier and paid for in market economy currency, in the calculation of normal value (``NV'') in antidumping proceedings involving NME countries. The rule, if adopted, would establish (1) a requirement that the input at issue be produced in one or more market economy countries, and (2) a revised threshold requiring that ``substantially all'' of an input be purchased from one or more market economy suppliers before the Department would use the purchase price paid to value the entire factor of production. Through this proposed modification, the Department is announcing its proposed definition of ``substantially all'' to be 85 percent of the total purchased volume of the particular input. The Department invites public comment on this proposed change.

  6. Impact of European pharmaceutical price regulation on generic price competition: a review.

    PubMed

    Puig-Junoy, Jaume

    2010-01-01

    Although economic theory indicates that it should not be necessary to intervene in the generic drug market through price regulation, most EU countries intervene in this market, both by regulating the maximum sale price of generics (price cap) and by setting the maximum reimbursement rate, especially by means of reference pricing systems. We analyse current knowledge of the impact of direct price-cap regulation of generic drugs and the implementation of systems regulating the reimbursement rate, particularly through reference pricing and similar tools, on dynamic price competition between generic competitors in Europe. A literature search was carried out in the EconLit and PubMed databases, and on Google Scholar. The search included papers published in English or Spanish between January 2000 and July 2009. Inclusion criteria included that studies had to present empirical results of a quantitative nature for EU countries of the impact of price capping and/or regulation of the reimbursement rate (reference pricing or similar systems) on price dynamics, corresponding to pharmacy sales, in the generic drug market. The available evidence indicates that price-cap regulation leads to a levelling off of generic prices at a higher level than would occur in the absence of this regulation. Reference pricing systems cause an obvious and almost compulsory reduction in the consumer price of all pharmaceuticals subject to this system, to a varying degree in different countries and periods, the reduction being greater for originator-branded drugs than for generics. In several countries with a reference pricing system, it was observed that generics with a consumer price lower than the reference price do not undergo price reductions until the reference price is reduced, even when there are other lower-priced generics on the market (absence of price competition below the reference price). Beyond the price reduction forced by the price-cap and/or reference pricing regulation itself

  7. Replication of Cancellation Orders Using First-Passage Time Theory in Foreign Currency Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boilard, Jean-François; Kanazawa, Kiyoshi; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    Our research focuses on the annihilation dynamics of limit orders in a spot foreign currency market for various currency pairs. We analyze the cancellation order distribution conditioned on the normalized distance from the mid-price; where the normalized distance is defined as the final distance divided by the initial distance. To reproduce real data, we introduce two simple models that assume the market price moves randomly and cancellation occurs either after fixed time t or following the Poisson process. Results of our model qualitatively reproduce basic statistical properties of cancellation orders of the data when limit orders are cancelled according to the Poisson process. We briefly discuss implication of our findings in the construction of more detailed microscopic models.

  8. Competition and quality in a physiotherapy market with fixed prices.

    PubMed

    Pekola, Piia; Linnosmaa, Ismo; Mikkola, Hennamari

    2017-01-01

    Our study focuses on competition and quality in physiotherapy organized and regulated by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (Kela). We first derive a hypothesis with a theoretical model and then perform empirical analyses of the data. Within the physiotherapy market, prices are regulated by Kela, and after registration eligible firms are accepted to join a pool of firms from which patients choose service providers based on their individual preferences. By using 2SLS estimation techniques, we analyzed the relationship among quality, competition and regulated price. According to the results, competition has a statistically significant (yet weak) negative effect (p = 0.019) on quality. The outcome for quality is likely caused by imperfect information. It seems that Kela has provided too little information for patients about the quality of the service.

  9. Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotsan, Serhiy

    2005-07-01

    A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to

  10. Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

    The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

  11. Natural Gas Marketer Prices and Sales To Residential and Commercial Customers: 2002-2005

    EIA Publications

    2007-01-01

    This report compares residential and commercial prices collected from natural gas marketers and local distribution companies in Maryland, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania from 2002-2005 and gives the history and status of natural gas choice programs in those states.

  12. Steady Increase In Prices For Oral Anticancer Drugs After Market Launch Suggests A Lack Of Competitive Pressure.

    PubMed

    Bennette, Caroline S; Richards, Catherine; Sullivan, Sean D; Ramsey, Scott D

    2016-05-01

    The cost of treating cancer has risen to unprecedented heights, putting tremendous financial pressure on patients, payers, and society. Previous studies have documented the rising prices of cancer drugs at launch, but less critical attention has been paid to the cost of these drugs after launch. We used pharmacy claims for commercially insured individuals to examine trends in postlaunch prices over time for orally administered anticancer drugs recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In the period 2007-13, inflation-adjusted per patient monthly drug prices increased 5 percent each year. Certain market changes also played a role, with prices rising an additional 10 percent with each supplemental indication approved by the FDA and declining 2 percent with the FDA's approval of a competitor drug. Our findings suggest that there is currently little competitive pressure in the oral anticancer drug market. Policy makers who wish to reduce the costs of anticancer drugs should consider implementing policies that affect prices not only at launch but also later. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  13. Pricing behaviour of pharmacies after market deregulation for OTC drugs: the case of Germany.

    PubMed

    Stargardt, Tom; Schreyögg, Jonas; Busse, Reinhard

    2007-11-01

    To examine the price reactions of German pharmacies to changes made to OTC drug regulations in 2004. Prior to these changes, regulations guaranteed identical prices in all German pharmacies. Two years after market deregulation, 256 pharmacies were surveyed to determine the retail prices of five selected OTC drugs. A probit regression model was used to identify factors that increased the likelihood of price changes. In addition, 409 pharmacy consumers were interviewed to gather information on their knowledge of the regulatory changes and to better explain consumer behaviour. Data was collected on a total of 1215 prices. Two years after deregulation, 23.1% of the participating pharmacies had modified the price of at least one of the five OTCs included in our study. However, in total, only 7.5% of the prices differed from their pre-deregulation level. The probit model showed that population density and the geographic concentration of pharmacies were significantly associated with price changes. Interestingly, the association with the geographic concentration of pharmacies was negative. The consumer survey revealed that 47.1% of those interviewed were aware of the deregulation. Our findings indicate that, two years after deregulation, very few pharmacies had made use of individual pricing strategies; price competition between pharmacies in Germany is thus taking place only a very small scale.

  14. Pharmaceutical Pricing and Market Access Outlook Europe 2010-HealthNetwork Communications' fourth annual conference. 24-25 March 2010, London, UK.

    PubMed

    Ogbighele, Erhimuvi

    2010-05-01

    The HealthNetwork Communications' Fourth Annual Conference on Pharmaceutical Pricing and Market Access Outlook Europe 2010, held in London, included topics covering the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry, specifically related to pricing and reimbursement, and demonstrating the value of a pharmaceutical. This conference report highlights selected presentations on a global perspective on pricing and reimbursement, with an analysis of the specific, unique challenges in the six major markets, Europe, the US, Canada, Germany, the UK and Japan, and a discussion of the benefits of risk-sharing schemes.

  15. Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

    2014-12-01

    The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

  16. Multi-period equilibrium/near-equilibrium in electricity markets based on locational marginal prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Bertrand, Raquel

    In this dissertation we propose an equilibrium procedure that coordinates the point of view of every market agent resulting in an equilibrium that simultaneously maximizes the independent objective of every market agent and satisfies network constraints. Therefore, the activities of the generating companies, consumers and an independent system operator are modeled: (1) The generating companies seek to maximize profits by specifying hourly step functions of productions and minimum selling prices, and bounds on productions. (2) The goals of the consumers are to maximize their economic utilities by specifying hourly step functions of demands and maximum buying prices, and bounds on demands. (3) The independent system operator then clears the market taking into account consistency conditions as well as capacity and line losses so as to achieve maximum social welfare. Then, we approach this equilibrium problem using complementarity theory in order to have the capability of imposing constraints on dual variables, i.e., on prices, such as minimum profit conditions for the generating units or maximum cost conditions for the consumers. In this way, given the form of the individual optimization problems, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for the generating companies, the consumers and the independent system operator are both necessary and sufficient. The simultaneous solution to all these conditions constitutes a mixed linear complementarity problem. We include minimum profit constraints imposed by the units in the market equilibrium model. These constraints are added as additional constraints to the equivalent quadratic programming problem of the mixed linear complementarity problem previously described. For the sake of clarity, the proposed equilibrium or near-equilibrium is first developed for the particular case considering only one time period. Afterwards, we consider an equilibrium or near-equilibrium applied to a multi-period framework. This model embodies binary

  17. Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles-Evidence from China's Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.

  18. A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

    2014-05-01

    Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

  19. A Two-Phase Model for Trade Matching and Price Setting in Double Auction Water Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Tingting; Zheng, Hang; Zhao, Jianshi; Liu, Yicheng; Tang, Pingzhong; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Wang, Zhongjing

    2018-04-01

    Delivery in water markets is generally operated by agencies through channel systems, which imposes physical and institutional market constraints. Many water markets allow water users to post selling and buying requests on a board. However, water users may not be able to choose efficiently when the information (including the constraints) becomes complex. This study proposes an innovative two-phase model to address this problem based on practical experience in China. The first phase seeks and determines the optimal assignment that maximizes the incremental improvement of the system's social welfare according to the bids and asks in the water market. The second phase sets appropriate prices under constraints. Applying this model to China's Xiying Irrigation District shows that it can improve social welfare more than the current "pool exchange" method can. Within the second phase, we evaluate three objective functions (minimum variance, threshold-based balance, and two-sided balance), which represent different managerial goals. The threshold-based balance function should be preferred by most users, while the two-sided balance should be preferred by players who post extreme prices.

  20. The impact of competition on quality and prices in the English care homes market

    PubMed Central

    Forder, Julien; Allan, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the impact of competition on quality and price in the English care/nursing homes market. Considering the key institutional features, we use a theoretical model to assess the conditions under which further competition could increase or reduce quality. A dataset comprising the population of 10,000 care homes was used. We constructed distance/travel-time weighted competition measures. Instrumental variable estimations, used to account for the endogeneity of competition, showed quality and price were reduced by greater competition. Further analyses suggested that the negative quality effect worked through the effect on price – higher competition reduces revenue which pushes down quality. PMID:24487075

  1. The market value of cultural heritage in urban areas: an application of spatial hedonic pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazrak, Faroek; Nijkamp, Peter; Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The current literature often values intangible goods like cultural heritage by applying stated preference methods. In recent years, however, the increasing availability of large databases on real estate transactions and listed prices has opened up new research possibilities and has reduced various existing barriers to applications of conventional (spatial) hedonic analysis to the real estate market. The present paper provides one of the first applications using a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the impact of cultural heritage—in particular, listed buildings and historic-cultural sites (or historic landmarks)—on the value of real estate in cities. In addition, this paper suggests a novel way of specifying the spatial weight matrix—only prices of sold houses influence current price—in identifying the spatial dependency effects between sold properties. The empirical application in the present study concerns the Dutch urban area of Zaanstad, a historic area for which over a long period of more than 20 years detailed information on individual dwellings, and their market prices are available in a GIS context. In this paper, the effect of cultural heritage is analysed in three complementary ways. First, we measure the effect of a listed building on its market price in the relevant area concerned. Secondly, we investigate the value that listed heritage has on nearby property. And finally, we estimate the effect of historic-cultural sites on real estate prices. We find that, to purchase a listed building, buyers are willing to pay an additional 26.9 %, while surrounding houses are worth an extra 0.28 % for each additional listed building within a 50-m radius. Houses sold within a conservation area appear to gain a premium of 26.4 % which confirms the existence of a `historic ensemble' effect.

  2. The Impact of Income and Taxation in a Price-Tiered Cigarette Market - findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

    PubMed

    Huq, Iftekharul; Nargis, Nigar; Lkhagvasuren, Damba; Hussain, Akm Ghulam; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2018-04-25

    Taxing tobacco is among the most effective measures of tobacco control. However, in a tiered market structure where multiple tiers of taxes coexist, the anticipated impact of tobacco taxes on consumption is complex. This paper investigates changing smoking behaviour in lieu of changing prices and changing income. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of change in prices (through taxes) and change in income in a price-tiered cigarette market. A panel dataset from the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh surveys is used for analysis. For preliminary analysis transition matrices are developed. Next, probit and multinomial logit regression models are used to identify the effects of changes in prices and changes in income along with other control variables. Transition matrices show significant movement of smokers across price tiers from one wave to another. Regression results show that higher income raises the probability to up-trade and decreases the probability to down-trade. Results also show that higher prices raises the probability to up-trade and reduces the probability to down-trade. Although not significant, there exists a negative relationship between the probability to down-trade and the probability to intend to quit. It is evident from the results that a price-tiered market provides smokers more opportunities to accommodate their smoking behaviour when faced with price and income change. Therefore, tiered structure of the tax system should be replaced with uniform taxes. Moreover, overall cigarette taxes need to be raised to an extent so that it off-sets any positive effects of income growth. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  3. Strategies to enhance price and quality competition in health care: lessons learned from tracking local markets.

    PubMed

    Lesser, Cara S; Ginsburg, Paul B

    2006-06-01

    Drawing on observations from tracking changes in local health care markets over the past ten years, this article critiques two Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice recommendations to enhance price and quality competition. First, we take issue with the notion that consumers, acting independently, will drive greater competition in health care markets. Rather we suggest an important role remains for trusted agents who can analyze inherently complex price and quality information and negotiate on consumers' behalf. With aggregated information identifying providers who deliver cost-effective care, consumers would be better positioned to respond to financial incentives about where to seek care and thereby drive more meaningful competition among providers to reduce costs and improve quality. Second, we take issue with the FTC/DOJ recommendation to provide more direct subsidies to prevent distortions in competition. In the current political environment, it is not practical to provide direct subsidies for all of the unfunded care that exists in health care markets today; instead, some interference with competition may be necessary to protect cross subsidies. Barriers can be reduced, though, by revising pricing policies that have resulted in marked disparities in the relative profitability of different services.

  4. Modeling the demand-price relations in a high-frequency foreign exchange market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Anatoly B.

    1999-09-01

    A stochastic nonlinear dynamics model is introduced in terms of observable variables (price and excess demand assumed to be proportional to the number of buyers) to describe a high-frequency foreign exchange market. It is shown how the fundamentalist and chartist patterns of the trader behavior affect the correlation between excess demand and exchange rates.

  5. Has competition lowered hospital prices?

    PubMed

    Zwanziger, Jack; Mooney, Cathleen

    2005-01-01

    On Jan. 1, 1997, New York ended its regulation of hospital prices with the intent of using competitive markets to control prices and increase efficiency. This paper uses data that come from annual reports filed by all health maintenance organizations (HMOs) operating in New York and include payments to and usage in the major hospitals in an HMO's network. We estimate the relationship between implied prices and hospital, plan, and market characteristics. The models show that after 1997, hospitals in more competitive markets paid less. Partially offsetting these price reductions were price increases associated with hospital mergers that reduced the competitiveness of the local market. Hospital deregulation was successful, at least in the short run, in using price competition to reduce hospital payments; it is unclear whether this success will be undermined by the structural changes taking place in the hospital industry.

  6. Price regulation, new entry, and information shock on pharmaceutical market in Taiwan: a nationwide data-based study from 2001 to 2004

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) as a case, we used Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI) database, to empirically explore the association between policy interventions (price regulation, new drug entry, and an information shock) and drug expenditures, utilization, and market structure between 2001 and 2004. Methods All NSAIDs prescribed in ambulatory visits in the NHI system during our study period were included and aggregated quarterly. Segmented regression analysis for interrupted time series was used to examine the associations between two price regulations, two new drug entries (cyclooxygennase-2 inhibitors) and the rofecoxib safety signal and expenditures and utilization of all NSAIDs. Herfindahl index (HHI) was applied to further examine the association between these interventions and market structure of NSAIDs. Results New entry was the only variable that was significantly correlated with changes of expenditures (positive change, p = 0.02) and market structure of the NSAIDs market in the NHI system. The correlation between price regulation (first price regulation, p = 0.62; second price regulation, p = 0.26) and information shock (p = 0.31) and drug expenditure were not statistically significant. There was no significant change in the prescribing volume of NSAIDs per rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or osteoarthritis (OA) ambulatory visit during the observational period. The market share of NSAIDs had also been largely substituted by these new drugs up to 50%, in a three-year period and resulted in a more concentrated market structure (HHI 0.17). Conclusions Our empirical study found that new drug entry was the main driving force behind escalating drug spending, especially by altering the market share. PMID:20653979

  7. 30 CFR 206.104 - What publications are acceptable to MMS?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... price and ANS spot price based on certain criteria, including, but not limited to: (1) Publications... daily surveys of buyers and sellers of crude oil, and, for ANS spot prices, buyers and sellers of ANS... represent NYMEX prices or differentials or ANS spot market prices or differentials. [65 FR 14088, Mar. 15...

  8. Tannin profile of different Monastrell wines and its relation to projected market prices.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Plaza, Encarna; Olmos, Oscar; Bautista-Ortín, Ana Belén

    2016-08-01

    This study focuses on the differences or similarities in tannin composition and concentration in Monastrell wines from different wineries from the same geographic area and, within each winery, from wines elaborated based on different projected market prices, to determine whether there is any relationship between the wine tannin composition and the projected price. The tannin composition of the different wines, all of them analyzed at the same point during winemaking, indicated that those elaborated as premium wines presented higher phenol and tannin contents. The mean degree of polymerization of these wines was also positively related with the projected price, which agreed with the results obtained by size exclusion chromatography, that showed that wines with high projected prices had a higher proportion of polymeric tannins, suggesting that techniques favoring the extraction of skin tannins were mostly used in those wines projected as premium wines, probably looking for greater mouthfeel complexity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Pricing products: juxtaposing affordability with quality appeal.

    PubMed

    1984-01-01

    Choosing appropriate product prices is 1 of the most crucial steps in creating an effective contraceptive social marketing (CSM) sales campaign. The Social Marketing Forum conducted an informal survey of social marketing project managers, international contractors, and marketing consultants to determine how CSM programs cope with pricing problems and ways to circumvent some obstacles. According to Diana Altman, a family planning consultant, low prices that make products available to needy individuals are more important than the program's self sufficiency, yet if prices are too low, consumers think the products were unusable in the US and thus were dumped on local markets. Other key factors include commercial competition, spiraling inflation rates, and problems with rising prices and retailer/distributor margins. A sampling of per capita gross national products indicates the poverty level of most CSM projects' target market. Consequently, CSM projects must set low pices, regardless of program operating costs. The goal often is to increase the demand and availability for contraceptives. The fact that social marketing products must pass through retail networks to reach consumers complicates the pricing equation. To deal with the problem, India's Nirodh program gives a 25% margin to distributors/wholesalers, compared to 6% offered on most other goods. Retailers also receive a 25% margin, more than double the commercial rate. Once prices are set, increases pose hazards. Local government approval often is a prerequisite and can require lengthy negotiations. Market studies remain a valuable approach to effective pricing, according to PNA's Mallamad and other research consultants. They cite such effective research strategies as test marketing products and asking consumers how prices affect buying habits. Further, CSM projects can jump over some pricing hurdles through creative marketing. An effective pricing strategy alone cannot produce a successful CSM program. Pricing

  10. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets based on DCCA and DMCA methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Chen, Yuemeng; Yang, Chunxia

    2014-05-01

    Based on the daily price data of Shanghai and London gold spot markets, we applied detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and detrended moving average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) methods to quantify power-law cross-correlation between domestic and international gold markets. Results show that the cross-correlations between the Chinese domestic and international gold spot markets are multifractal. Furthermore, forward DMCA and backward DMCA seems to outperform DCCA and centered DMCA for short-range gold series, which confirms the comparison results of short-range artificial data in L. Y. He and S. P. Chen [Physica A 390 (2011) 3806-3814]. Finally, we analyzed the local multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between Chinese domestic and international gold markets. We show that multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets are time-varying and that multifractal characteristics were strengthened by the financial crisis in 2007-2008.

  11. The impact of competition on quality and prices in the English care homes market.

    PubMed

    Forder, Julien; Allan, Stephen

    2014-03-01

    This study assesses the impact of competition on quality and price in the English care/nursing homes market. Considering the key institutional features, we use a theoretical model to assess the conditions under which further competition could increase or reduce quality. A dataset comprising the population of 10,000 care homes was used. We constructed distance/travel-time weighted competition measures. Instrumental variable estimations, used to account for the endogeneity of competition, showed quality and price were reduced by greater competition. Further analyses suggested that the negative quality effect worked through the effect on price - higher competition reduces revenue which pushes down quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Hospital pricing policies: the simple economics.

    PubMed

    Robison, G A; Robison, H D

    1986-10-01

    Changes in hospital reimbursement structures and the shrinking inpatient service market are forcing hospitals to reexamine their pricing strategies. This article examines historical hospital pricing, the effect of pricing in a competitive market and considerations for hospitals moving toward competitive pricing for services.

  13. Scheduling and Pricing for Expected Ramp Capability in Real-Time Power Markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ela, Erik; O'Malley, Mark

    2016-05-01

    Higher variable renewable generation penetrations are occurring throughout the world on different power systems. These resources increase the variability and uncertainty on the system which must be accommodated by an increase in the flexibility of the system resources in order to maintain reliability. Many scheduling strategies have been discussed and introduced to ensure that this flexibility is available at multiple timescales. To meet variability, that is, the expected changes in system conditions, two recent strategies have been introduced: time-coupled multi-period market clearing models and the incorporation of ramp capability constraints. To appropriately evaluate these methods, it is important to assessmore » both efficiency and reliability. But it is also important to assess the incentive structure to ensure that resources asked to perform in different ways have the proper incentives to follow these directions, which is a step often ignored in simulation studies. We find that there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. We also find that look-ahead horizon length in multi-period market models can impact incentives. This paper proposes scheduling and pricing methods that ensure expected ramps are met reliably, efficiently, and with associated prices based on true marginal costs that incentivize resources to do as directed by the market. Case studies show improvements of the new method.« less

  14. Measuring market performance in restructured electricity markets: An empirical analysis of the PJM energy market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tucker, Russell Jay

    2002-09-01

    Today the electric industry in the U.S. is transitioning to competitive markets for wholesale electricity. Independent system operators (ISOs) now manage broad regional markets for electrical energy in several areas of the U.S. A recent rulemaking by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) encourages the development of regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and restructured competitive wholesale electricity markets nationwide. To date, the transition to competitive wholesale markets has not been easy. The increased reliance on market forces coupled with unusually high electricity demand for some periods have created conditions amenable to market power abuse in many regions throughout the U.S. In the summer of 1999, hot and humid summer conditions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia pushed peak demand in the PJM Interconnection to record levels. These demand conditions coincided with the introduction of market-based pricing in the wholesale electricity market. Prices for electricity increased on average by 55 percent, and reached the $1,000/MWh range. This study examines the extent to which generator market power raised prices above competitive levels in the PJM Interconnection during the summer of 1999. It simulates hourly market-clearing prices assuming competitive market behavior and compares these prices with observed market prices in computing price markups over the April 1-August 31, 1999 period. The results of the simulation analysis are supported with an examination of actual generator bid data of incumbent generators. Price markups averaged 14.7 percent above expected marginal cost over the 5-month period for all non-transmission-constrained hours. The evidence presented suggests that the June and July monthly markups were strongly influenced by generator market power as price inelastic peak demand approached the electricity generation capacity constraint of the market. While this analysis of the

  15. Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning

    PubMed Central

    Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Singh, Sauman; Dongmo-Nguimfack, Boniface; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    Introduction This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants. Design The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement. Methods ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary. Results Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases. Conclusions Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining

  16. Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning.

    PubMed

    Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Singh, Sauman; Dongmo-Nguimfack, Boniface; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants. The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement. ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary. Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases. Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining power in price negotiations and the use of TRIPS

  17. 7 CFR 1005.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1005.54 Section 1005.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1005.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices ...

  18. 7 CFR 1006.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1006.54 Section 1006.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1006.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices ...

  19. 7 CFR 1131.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1131.54 Section 1131.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1131.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices ...

  20. 7 CFR 1007.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1007.54 Section 1007.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1007.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices ...

  1. 7 CFR 1033.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1033.54 Section 1033.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1033.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential ...

  2. 7 CFR 1032.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1032.54 Section 1032.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1032.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential ...

  3. 7 CFR 1126.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1126.54 Section 1126.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1126.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential ...

  4. Outpatient Provider Concentration and Commercial Colonoscopy Prices

    PubMed Central

    Pozen, Alexis

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to evaluate the magnitude of various contributors to outpatient commercial colonoscopy prices, including market- and provider-level factors, especially market share. We used adjudicated fee-for-service facility claims from a large commercial insurer for colonoscopies occurring in hospital outpatient department or ambulatory surgery center from October 2005 to December 2012. Claims were matched to provider- and market-level data. Linear fixed effects regressions of negotiated colonoscopy price were run on provider, system, and market characteristics. Markets were defined as counties. There were 178 433 claims from 169 providers (104 systems). The mean system market share was 76% (SD = 0.34) and the mean real (deflated) price was US$1363 (SD = 374), ranging from US$169 to US$2748. For every percentage point increase in a system or individual facility’s bed share, relative price increased by 2 to 4 percentage points; this result was stable across a number of specifications. Market population and price were also consistently positively related, though this relation was small in magnitude. No other factor explained price as strongly as market share. Price variation for colonoscopy was driven primarily by market share, of particular concern as the number of mergers increases in wake of the recession and the Affordable Care Act. Whether variation is justified by better quality care requires further research to determine whether quality is subsumed in prices. PMID:25870183

  5. 7 CFR 1124.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1124.54 Section 1124.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential ...

  6. An equation of state for the financial markets: connecting order flow to price formation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerig, Austin; Mike, Szabolcs; Doyne Farmer, J.

    2006-03-01

    Many of the peculiarities of price formation in the financial marketplace can be understood as the result of a few regularities in the placement and removal of trading orders. Based on a large data set from the London Stock Exchange we show that the distribution of prices where people place orders to buy or sell follows a surprisingly simple functional form that depends on the current best prices. In addition, whether or not an order is to buy or sell is described by a long-memory process, and the cancellation of orders can be described by a few simple rules. When these results are combined, simply by following the rules of the continuous double auction, the resulting simulation model produces good predictions for the distribution of price changes and transaction costs without any adjustment of parameters. We use the model to empirically derive equations of state relating order flow and the statistical properties of prices. In contrast to previous conjectures, our results demonstrate that these distributions are not universal, but rather depend on parameters of individual markets. They also show that factors other than supply and demand play an important role in price formation.

  7. The effect of virtual bidding on forward premiums in the New York wholesale energy market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knudsen, Andrew D.

    In many parts of the United States, the power industry has been deregulated and replaced with regional wholesale energy markets, where utilities purchase electricity from generators at competitive market rates for subsequent distribution to customers. Numerous studies have shown that in each of these markets, the price of energy purchased in the Day Ahead (futures) market exceeds the price in the Real Time (spot) market on average. The existence of this "forward premium" is evidence of market inefficiency and may indicate participants' aversion to risk in the Real Time market or the exercise of market power by generators. To address this inefficiency, the New York Independent System Operator introduced a virtual bidding system within its wholesale market, which permitted participants to engage in purely financial transactions and hedge their exposure to risk. The new policy was expected to promote price convergence by allowing bidders to arbitrage expected differences between Day Ahead and Real Time prices. This study examines whether the presence of virtual bidding was associated with a change in the mean value and magnitude of forward premiums in the NYISO energy market. The study applies a GARCH model to hourly pricing data from 2001 to 2009, controlling for temperature and economic activity. The results indicate that prior to 2005, virtual bidding was associated with significantly lower and less volatile forward premiums in New York's five most congested zones but with increased premiums in the remaining less congested zones. However, when the entire period from 2001 to 2009 is examined, the results suggest that prices have become significantly more divergent in the presence of virtual bidding. Closer examination of the data reveals a dramatic increase in forward premium volatility across all zones beginning in 2005 that is not accounted for by temperature or economic activity and may have biased the results. This study attempts to account for this unexplained

  8. Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis of Market Clearing Price of electricity and SENSEX in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Dutta, Srimonti; Chakraborty, Sayantan

    2015-09-01

    This paper reports a study on the cross-correlation between the electric bid price and SENSEX using Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis (MF-DXA). MF-DXA is a very rigorous and robust technique for assessment of cross-correction between two non-linear time series. The study reveals power law cross-correlation between Market Clearing Price (MCP) and SENSEX which suggests that a change in the value of one can create a subjective change in the value of the other.

  9. Seeking lower prices where providers are consolidated: an examination of market and policy strategies.

    PubMed

    Ginsburg, Paul B; Pawlson, L Gregory

    2014-06-01

    The ongoing consolidation between and among hospitals and physicians tends to raise prices for health care services, which poses increasing challenges for private purchasers and payers. This article examines strategies that these purchasers and payers can pursue to combat provider leverage to increase prices. It also examines opportunities for governments to either support or constrain these strategies. In response to higher prices, payers are developing new approaches to benefit and network design, some of which may be effective in moderating prices and, in some cases, volume. These approaches interact with public policy because regulation can either facilitate or constrain them. Federal and state governments also have opportunities to limit consolidation's effect on prices by developing antitrust policies that better address current market environments and by fostering the development of physician organizations that can increase competition and contract with payers under shared-savings approaches. The success of these private- and public-sector initiatives likely will determine whether governments shift from supporting competition to directly regulating payment rates. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  10. Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles—Evidence from China’s Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. PMID:27851796

  11. Assessment of the impact of market regulation in Mali on the price of essential medicines provided through the private sector.

    PubMed

    Maïga, Diadié; Williams-Jones, Bryn

    2010-10-01

    In 1998, the government of Mali adopted a national pharmaceutical policy aimed at promoting a supply system for generic essential medicines that would guarantee equal access for all citizens. Distribution and delivery is a shared responsibility of both public and private sectors (wholesalers and pharmacies). To influence private sector behaviour, the national policy uses a combination of government regulation and market forces. In 2006, the government issued a decree fixing maximum prices in the private sector for 107 prescription drugs from the national list of 426 essential medicines. The current study assessed the impact of this intervention on the evolution of market prices (wholesale and retail), and the subsequent availability and public access to essential medicines in Mali. A cross-sectional descriptive survey was conducted in February and May 2006, and January 2009, with 16 wholesalers and 30 private drugstores in Bamako, Mali. The overall availability of essential medicines at private wholesalers (p=1) and pharmacies (p=0.53) was identical before and after the enforcement of the 2006 decree fixing maximum drug prices. Contrary to concerns expressed by wholesalers and pharmacies, and the other stakeholders, the decree did not impact negatively on availability of essential medicines. In fact, median wholesale prices in 2009 were 25.6% less than those fixed by the decree. In private pharmacies, retail prices were only 3% more expensive than the recommended prices, compared with being 25.5% more expensive prior to enforcement of the decree. The study shows that prices of essential medicines in Mali have evolved favourably towards the prices recommended by the government decree. Further, the study contributes to mounting evidence that market regulation by governments does not necessarily negatively affect drug availability; in fact, given the reduction in prices, the study shows that Malians arguably have better access to more affordable essential medicines

  12. Price competition in the Chinese pharmaceutical market.

    PubMed

    Wang, Y Richard

    2006-06-01

    We study price competition between high-quality global products and low-quality local products in a developing country, i.e., China, Nearly all previous studies on pharmaceutical price competition focused on developed countries with bioequivalent generics. In China, local generic products are not bioequivalent and are deemed of lower quality, while global products in the same class are considered similar in quality and better substitutes. We hypothesize that local generic competition drives down local product price but not global product price. In addition, we hypothesize that therapeutic competition among similar global products lowers global product price. Our empirical results support both hypotheses. Number of local generic competitors has a significantly negative effect on local product price but no effect on global product price, while number of global therapeutic competitors has a significantly negative effect on global product price. Policy changes that encourage bioequivalent local products and accelerate global product approvals will enhance price competition in China.

  13. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes

    PubMed Central

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others’ actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants. PMID:27513335

  14. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes.

    PubMed

    Maskawa, Jun-Ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others' actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants.

  15. Optimizing Household Chlorination Marketing Strategies: A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Price and Promotion on Adoption in Haiti.

    PubMed

    Ritter, Michael; Camille, Eveline; Velcine, Christophe; Guillaume, Rose-Kerline; Lantagne, Daniele

    2017-07-01

    Household water treatment can reduce diarrheal morbidity and mortality in developing countries, but adoption remains low and supply is often unreliable. To test effects of marketing strategies on consumers and suppliers, we randomized 1,798 households in rural Haiti and collected data on purchases of a household chlorination product for 4 months. Households received randomly selected prices ($0.11-$0.56 per chlorine bottle), and half received monthly visits from sales agents. Each $0.22 drop in price increased purchases by 0.10 bottles per household per month ( P < 0.001). At the mean price, each 1% drop in price increased purchases by 0.45% (elasticity = 0.45). There is suggestive evidence that household visits by some sales agents increased purchases at mid-range prices; however, the additional revenue did not offset visit cost. Choosing the lowest price and conducting visits maximizes chlorine purchase, whereas slightly raising the retail price and not conducting visits maximizes cost recovery. For the equivalent cost, price discounts increase purchases 4.2 times as much as adding visits at the current retail price. In this context, price subsidies may be a more cost-effective use of resources than household visits, though all marketing strategies tested offer cost-effective ways to achieve incremental health impact. Decisions about pricing and promotion for health products in developing countries affect health impact, cost recovery, and cost-effectiveness, and tradeoffs between these goals should be made explicit in program design.

  16. Possibility of controlling nonregulated prices in the electricity market by means of varying the parameters of a power system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaskovskaya, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    This paper offers a new approach to the analysis of price signals from the wholesale electricity and capacity market that is based on the analysis of the influence exerted by input data used in the problem of optimization of the power system operating conditions, namely: parameters of a power grid and power-receiving equipment that might vary under the effect of control devices. It is shown that it would be possible to control nonregulated prices for electricity in the wholesale electricity market by varying the parameters of control devices and energy-receiving equipment. An increase in the effectiveness of power transmission and the cost-effective use of fuel-and-energy resources (energy saving) can become an additional effect of controlling the nonregulated prices.

  17. Appliance Efficiency Standards and Price Discrimination

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Spurlock, Cecily Anna

    2013-05-08

    I explore the effects of two simultaneous changes in minimum energy efficiency and ENERGY STAR standards for clothes washers. Adapting the Mussa and Rosen (1978) and Ronnen (1991) second-degree price discrimination model, I demonstrate that clothes washer prices and menus adjusted to the new standards in patterns consistent with a market in which firms had been price discriminating. In particular, I show evidence of discontinuous price drops at the time the standards were imposed, driven largely by mid-low efficiency segments of the market. The price discrimination model predicts this result. On the other hand, in a perfectly competition market, pricesmore » should increase for these market segments. Additionally, new models proliferated in the highest efficiency market segment following the standard changes. Finally, I show that firms appeared to use different adaptation strategies at the two instances of the standards changing.« less

  18. Second national green pricing and green power marketing conference: Proceedings. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Swezey, B.G.; Peterson, T.M.

    1997-10-01

    On May 13--14, 1997, DOE, EPRI, and EEI, in association with Central and South West Services, Inc., organized and conducted the second national green power conference in Corpus Christi, TX to: (1) provide an update and overview of existing and new green-pricing programs, (2) discuss lessons learned from selling green power in retail access pilot programs, and (3) hear perspectives on market facilitating issues such as green power certification and information disclosure. From a policy perspective, there was a general feeling that total reliance on market forces to foster greater renewables deployment is not desirable, particularly in the short termmore » as the rules of the competitive market are being developed. Policies that establish a minimum public obligation to fund renewables, such as universal system benefits charges and a renewables portfolio standard, should still be considered.« less

  19. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  20. A comprehensive snapshot of States' small group market reforms on insurer pricing & rating practices, 1999.

    PubMed

    Xirasagar, Sudha; Stoskopf, Carleen H; Shrader, William R; Glover, Saundra H

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a qualitative analysis of states' small group health insurance reforms that impact small group premiums, mostly enacted by the states during 1996-99, following the federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act in 1996. It draws from an intensive review of statutes of 48 states and the District of Columbia as of 1999. It analyses regulations related to insurer pricing and rating practices concerning rating criteria and rating bands, pricing incentives, premium stability from year to year, minimum loss rations, reinsurance and carve-out coverage for the medically uninsurable. It also covers regulations targeting employer purchasing and coverage practices such as pooled purchasing and adverse selection. This is the second of a two-part series analyzing states' small group market reforms, the first being devoted to state reforms to promote access and improving the value of health plans offered in this market (Xirasagar et al. 2004). The variety in pricing and rating reforms illustrate the differences in the depth of reforms across states, and represent a far wider range of potential actuarial combinations than the sample of reforms documented in past literature.

  1. 7 CFR 1030.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1030.54 Section 1030.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1030.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. ...

  2. Adapting Child Care Market Price Surveys to Support State Quality Initiatives. White Paper

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Branscome, Kenley

    2016-01-01

    Recent changes to the Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF) require a state's child care market price survey to: (1) be statistically valid and reliable and (2) reflect variations in the cost of child care services by geographic area, type of provider, and age of child. States may use an alternative methodology for setting payment rates--such as…

  3. Optimal strategies for electric energy contract decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Haili

    2000-10-01

    The power industry restructuring in various countries in recent years has created an environment where trading of electric energy is conducted in a market environment. In such an environment, electric power companies compete for the market share through spot and bilateral markets. Being profit driven, electric power companies need to make decisions on spot market bidding, contract evaluation, and risk management. New methods and software tools are required to meet these upcoming needs. In this research, bidding strategy and contract pricing are studied from a market participant's viewpoint; new methods are developed to guide a market participant in spot and bilateral market operation. A supplier's spot market bidding decision is studied. Stochastic optimization is formulated to calculate a supplier's optimal bids in a single time period. This decision making problem is also formulated as a Markov Decision Process. All the competitors are represented by their bidding parameters with corresponding probabilities. A systematic method is developed to calculate transition probabilities and rewards. The optimal strategy is calculated to maximize the expected reward over a planning horizon. Besides the spot market, a power producer can also trade in the bilateral markets. Bidding strategies in a bilateral market are studied with game theory techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions of Nash Equilibrium (NE) bidding strategy are derived based on the generators' cost and the loads' willingness to pay. The study shows that in any NE, market efficiency is achieved. Furthermore, all Nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators. The pricing of "Flexible" contracts, which allow delivery flexibility over a period of time with a fixed total amount of electricity to be delivered, is analyzed based on the no-arbitrage pricing principle. The proposed algorithm calculates the price based on the optimality condition of the stochastic optimization formulation

  4. A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

    2017-06-01

    We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

  5. Variation in cannabis potency and prices in a newly legal market: evidence from 30 million cannabis sales in Washington state.

    PubMed

    Smart, Rosanna; Caulkins, Jonathan P; Kilmer, Beau; Davenport, Steven; Midgette, Greg

    2017-12-01

    To (1) assess trends and variation in the market share of product types and potency sold in a legal cannabis retail market and (2) estimate how potency and purchase quantity influence price variation for cannabis flower. Secondary analysis of publicly available data from Washington State's cannabis traceability system spanning 7 July 2014 to 30 September 2016. Descriptive statistics and linear regressions assessed variation and trends in cannabis product variety and potency. Hedonic regressions estimated how purchase quantity and potency influence cannabis flower price variation. Washington State, USA. (1) A total of 44 482 176 million cannabis purchases, including (2) 31 052 123 cannabis flower purchases after trimming price and quantity outliers. Primary outcome measures were (1) monthly expenditures on cannabis, total delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) concentration and cannabidiol (CBD) concentration by product type and (2) excise tax-inclusive price per gram of cannabis flower. Key covariates for the hedonic price regressions included quantity purchased, THC and CBD. Traditional cannabis flowers still account for the majority of spending (66.6%), but the market share of extracts for inhalation increased by 145.8% between October 2014 and September 2016, now comprising 21.2% of sales. The average THC-level for cannabis extracts is more than triple that for cannabis flowers (68.7% compared to 20.6%). For flower products, there is a statistically significant relationship between price per gram and both THC [coefficient = 0.012; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.011-0.013] and CBD (coefficient = 0.017; CI = 0.015-0.019). The estimated discount elasticity is -0.06 (CI = -0.07 to -0.05). In the state of Washington, USA, the legal cannabis market is currently dominated by high-THC cannabis flower, and features growing expenditures on extracts. For cannabis flower, both THC and CBD are associated with higher per-gram prices, and there are small but

  6. Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2018-01-01

    An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

  7. The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.

    2014-10-14

    In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the USmore » market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.« less

  8. Nursing home prices and market structure: the effect of assisted living industry expansion.

    PubMed

    Bowblis, John R

    2014-01-01

    Since the 1990s, there has been substantial expansion of facility-based alternatives to nursing home care, such as assisted living facilities. This paper analyzes the relationship between expansion of the assisted living industry, nursing home market structure and nursing home private pay prices using a two-year panel of nursing homes in the State of Ohio. Fixed effect regressions suggest that the expansion of assisted living facilities are associated with increased nursing home concentration, but find no effect on private pay nursing home prices. This would be consistent with assisted livings reducing demand for nursing homes by delaying entry into a nursing home, though assisted livings are not direct competitors of nursing homes.

  9. What Drives Crude Oil Prices?

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes seven key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices. Regularly updated graphs are included to illustrate aspects of those relationships.

  10. 48 CFR 570.110 - Cost or pricing data and information other than cost or pricing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... competition. For price analysis of offered rental rates, the contracting officer may use a market survey, an... comparison, or other relevant market research data. For price analysis of offered tenant improvement costs...

  11. 48 CFR 570.110 - Cost or pricing data and information other than cost or pricing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... competition. For price analysis of offered rental rates, the contracting officer may use a market survey, an... comparison, or other relevant market research data. For price analysis of offered tenant improvement costs...

  12. 48 CFR 570.110 - Cost or pricing data and information other than cost or pricing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... competition. For price analysis of offered rental rates, the contracting officer may use a market survey, an... comparison, or other relevant market research data. For price analysis of offered tenant improvement costs...

  13. Effect of management, marketing, and certified health programs on the sale price of beef calves sold through a livestock video auction service from 1995 through 2009.

    PubMed

    Seeger, Jon T; King, Michael E; Grotelueschen, Dale M; Rogers, Glenn M; Stokka, Gerald S

    2011-08-15

    To evaluate and update the previously quantified effects of management, marketing, and certified health programs on the sale price of beef calves sold through a livestock video auction service. Longitudinal study. 41,657 lots representing 5,042,272 beef calves sold from 1995 through 2009. Data describing each lot of beef calves marketed from 1995 through 2009 by a livestock video auction service were obtained from sale catalogues. For each year of the study, multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the effect of management, marketing, and certified health programs on sale price. Sale date, base sale weight, quadratic effect of base weight, sex of calf, region of origin, breed description, inclusion in a certified health program, and number of calves in the lot significantly affected sale price for every year of the study. Variation in body weight, flesh score, and number of days between sale and delivery date had significant effects on price in most of the years; frame score and calves with horns affected price in 7 of 15 years; age and source verification influenced sale price in every year since source verification was introduced in 2005; and the auction service's progressive genetics program increased price during the 1 year that program was available. Some management, marketing, and certified health initiatives have consistently increased the sale price of beef calves, and producers can increase the price of their calves by implementing these practices.

  14. Oil prices in a new light

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fesharaki, F.

    1994-05-01

    For a clear picture of how oil prices develop, the author steps away from the price levels to which the world is accustomed, and evaluates scientifically. What makes prices jump from one notch to another The move results from a political or economic shock or the perception of a particular position by the futures market and the media. The shock could range from a war or an assassination to a promise of cooperation among OPEC members (when believed by the market) or to speculation about another failure at an OPEC meeting. In the oil market, only a couple of factualmore » figures can provide a floor to the price of oil. The cost of production of oil in the Gulf is around $2 to $3/bbl, and the cost of production of oil (capital and operating costs) in key non-OPEC areas is well under $10/bbl. With some adjustments for transport and quality, a price range of $13/bbl to $16/bbl would correspond to a reasonable sustainable floor price. The reason for prices above the floor price has been a continuous fear of oil supply interruptions. That fear kept prices above the floor price for many years. The fear factor has now almost fully disappeared. The market has gone through the drama of the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker war, the invasion of Kuwait, and the expulsions of the Iraqis. And still the oil flowed -- all the time. It has become abundantly clear that fears above the oil market were unjustified. Everyone needs to export oil, and oil will flow under the worst circumstances. The demise of the fear factor means that oil prices tend toward the floor price for a prolonged period.« less

  15. Pricing in a two-echelon supply chain with different market powers: game theory approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esmaeilzadeh, Afshin; Taleizadeh, Ata Allah

    2016-03-01

    In this research, the optimal pricing decisions for two complementary products in a two-echelon supply chain under two scenarios are studied. The proposed supply chain in each echelon includes one retailer and two manufacturers and the same complementary products are produced. In the first scenario, we assume the unit manufacturing costs of the complementary products in each echelon are the same, while in the second one the different unit manufacturing costs are supposed and lead to demand leakage from the echelon with the higher unit manufacturing cost to the echelon with the lower unit manufacturing cost. Moreover, under the second scenario, the products with lower price are replaced with the higher price products. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of different market powers between the manufacturers and the retailer and the demand leakage on the optimal wholesale and retail prices and also on the profit of the chain. The relationships between the manufacturers and the retailer are modeled by the MS-Stackelberg and MS-Bertrand game-theoretic approach where the manufacturers are leaders and the retailers are followers.

  16. 7 CFR 1955.113 - Price (housing).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Price (housing). 1955.113 Section 1955.113 Agriculture... § 1955.113 Price (housing). Real property will be offered or listed for its present market value, as adjusted by any administrative price reductions provided for in this section. Market value will be based...

  17. Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicente, Renato; de Toledo, Charles M.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

    2006-02-01

    We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20 min to 160 days. At time scales shorter than 20 min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics.

  18. Animal health and price transmission along livestock supply chains.

    PubMed

    Aragrande, M; Canali, M

    2017-04-01

    Animal health diseases can severely affect the food supply chain by causing variations in prices and market demand. Price transmission analysis reveals in what ways price variations are transmitted along the supply chain, and how supply chains of substitute products and different regional markets are also affected. In perfect markets, a price variation would be completely and instantaneously transmitted across the different levels of the supply chain: producers, the processing industry, retailers and consumers. However, empirical studies show that food markets are often imperfect, with anomalies or asymmetries in price transmission and distortions in the distribution of market benefits. This means, for instance, that a price increase at the consumer level may not be transmitted from retailers to processors and producers; yet, on the other hand, price falls may rapidly affect the upstream supply chain. Market concentration and the consequent exertion of market power in key segments of the supply chain can explain price transmission asymmetries and their distributional effects, but other factors may also be involved, such as transaction costs, scale economies, and imperfect information. During the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, asymmetric price transmission in the beef supply chain and related meat markets determined distributional effects among sectors. After the spread of the BSE food scare, the fall in demand marginally affected the price paid to retailers, but producers and wholesalers suffered much more, in both price reductions and the time needed to recover to precrisis demand. Price transmission analysis investigates how animal health crises create different economic burdens for various types of stakeholder, and provides useful socioeconomic insights when used with other tools.

  19. Retail Price Model

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.

  20. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better?

    PubMed Central

    Doran, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Hyosun Kim’s report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it PMID:27239884

  1. Impact of cross-reference pricing on pharmaceutical prices: manufacturers' pricing strategies and price regulation.

    PubMed

    Stargardt, Tom; Schreyögg, Jonas

    2006-01-01

    Several EU countries are determining reimbursement prices of pharmaceuticals by cross-referencing prices of foreign countries. Our objective is to quantify the theoretical cross-border spill-over effects of cross-reference pricing schemes on pharmaceutical prices in the former EU-15 countries. An analytical model was developed estimating the impact of pharmaceutical price changes in Germany on pharmaceutical prices in other countries in the former EU-15 using cross-reference pricing. We differentiated between the direct impact (from referencing to Germany directly) and the indirect impact (from referencing to other countries that conduct their own cross-reference pricing schemes). The relationship between the direct and indirect impact of a price change depends mainly on the method applied to set reimbursement prices. When applying cross-reference pricing, the reimbursement price is either determined by the lowest of foreign prices (e.g. Portugal), the average of foreign prices (e.g. Ireland) or a weighted average of foreign prices (e.g. Italy). If the respective drug is marketed in all referenced countries and prices are regularly updated, a price reduction of 1.00 euro in Germany will reduce maximum reimbursement prices in the former EU-15 countries from 0.15 euros in Austria to 0.36 euros in Italy. On one side, the cross-border spill-over effects of price reductions are undoubtedly welcomed by decision makers and may be favourable to the healthcare system in general. On the other side, these cross-border spill-over effects also provide strong incentives for strategic product launches, launch delays and lobbying activities, and can affect the effectiveness of regulation. To avoid the negative effects of cross-reference pricing, a weighted index of prices from as many countries as possible should be used to determine reimbursement prices in order to reduce the direct and indirect impact of individual countries.

  2. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  3. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  4. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  5. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  6. 7 CFR 28.421 - Good Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Good Middling Spotted Color. 28.421 Section 28.421 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Good Middling Spotted Color is color which is better than Strict Middling Spotted Color. ...

  7. Anomalous Price Impact and the Critical Nature of Liquidity in Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, B.; Lempérière, Y.; Deremble, C.; de Lataillade, J.; Kockelkoren, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2011-10-01

    We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V shaped and vanishes around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow and on the fact that prices are, to a first approximation, diffusive. This naturally accounts for two striking stylized facts: First, large metaorders have to be fragmented in order to be digested by the liquidity funnel, which leads to a long memory in the sign of the order flow. Second, the anomalously small local liquidity induces a breakdown of the linear response and a diverging impact of small orders, explaining the “square-root” impact law, for which we provide additional empirical support. Finally, we test our arguments quantitatively using a numerical model of order flow based on the same minimal ingredients.

  8. [The aspects of pricing policy in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical sector].

    PubMed

    Dzhalilova, K I; Alieva, K Ia

    2012-01-01

    The effect of macro-, middle- and microeconomic factors on price formation in Azerbaijan pharmaceutical market has been studied. Worldwide pharmaceutical leaders have the goals to become leader on the pharmaceutical market of Azerbaijan and maximize their market share. Non-leaders pharmaceutical companies use different strategies of price formation: prime cost plus markup, or price formation on the base of current prices. It was revealed that domestic pharmaceutical market has high demand elasticity. Future market development is related to stimulation of product development, and hard penetration to the market through realization of price formation strategy. Non-state pharmaceutical organizations to achieve the purpose of survive in conditions of high competition should take in to account the factor perceptions of assortment by customers.

  9. Simulating Price-Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  10. 17 CFR Appendix B to Part 36 - Guidance on, and Acceptable Practices in, Compliance With Core Principles

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... spot-month positions. Spot-month limits should be adopted for significant price discovery contracts to... market or derivatives transaction execution facility should set the spot-month limit for its significant... designated contract market or derivatives transaction execution facility. In this case, the spot-month...

  11. Risk management and market efficiency on the Midwest Independent System Operator electricity exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Kevin

    Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO exchange are estimated using various techniques. No hedge ratio technique examined consistently outperforms the unhedged portfolio in terms of variance reduction. Consequently, none of the hedge ratio methods in this study meet the general interpretation of FASB guidelines for a highly effective hedge. One of the major goals of deregulation is to bring about competition and increased efficiency in electricity markets. Previous research suggests that electricity exchanges may not be weak-form market efficient. A simple moving average trading rule is found to produce statistically and economically significant profits on the MISO exchange. This could call the long-term survivability of the MISO exchange into question.

  12. Open Access versus Traditional Journal Pricing: Using a Simple "Platform Market" Model to Understand Which Will Win (and Which Should)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCabe, Mark J.; Snyder, Christopher M.; Fagin, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Economists have built a theory to understand markets in which, rather than selling directly to buyers, suppliers sell through a platform, which controls prices on both sides. The theory has been applied to understand markets ranging from telephony, to credit cards, to media. In this paper, we apply the theory to the market for scholarly journals,…

  13. Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groot, Robert D.; Musters, Pieter A. D.

    2005-05-01

    A variation of the Minority Game has been applied to study the timing of promotional actions at retailers in the fast moving consumer goods market. The underlying hypotheses for this work are that price promotions are more effective when fewer than average competitors do a promotion, and that a promotion strategy can be based on past sales data. The first assumption has been checked by analysing 1467 promotional actions for three products on the Dutch market (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) over a 120-week period, both on an aggregated level and on retailer chain level. The second assumption was tested by analysing past sales data with the Minority Game. This revealed that high or low competitor promotional pressure for actual ketchup, mayonnaise, curry sauce and barbecue sauce markets is to some extent predictable up to a forecast of some 10 weeks. Whereas a random guess would be right 50% of the time, a single-agent game can predict the market with a success rate of 56% for a 6-9 week forecast. This number is the same for all four mentioned fast moving consumer markets. For a multi-agent game a larger variability in the success rate is obtained, but predictability can be as high as 65%. Contrary to expectation, the actual market does the opposite of what game theory would predict. This points at a systematic oscillation in the market. Even though this result is not fully understood, merely observing that this trend is present in the data could lead to exploitable trading benefits. As a check, random history strings were generated from which the statistical variation in the game prediction was studied. This shows that the odds are 1:1,000,000 that the observed pattern in the market is based on coincidence.

  14. Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sung Wook

    This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

  15. Priceless prices and marine food webs: Long-term patterns of change and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight as reflected by the seafood market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pincinato, R. B. M.; Gasalla, M. A.

    2010-10-01

    The lack of market variables in fishery systems (i.e., prices and quantities) has often been cited as one reason for the particular difficulty of understanding whole marine ecosystem change and its management under a broader ecosystem perspective. This paper shows the results of efforts to tackle this problem in the South Brazil Bight by compiling and analyzing in-depth an unprecedented 40-year database from the region’s largest wholesale seafood market, based in the megacity of São Paulo. Fishery landings and market values for the period 1968-2007 were analyzed primarily by updated trophic level classes and multispecies indicators including the (1) marine trophic index (MTI), (2) weighted price, and (3) log relative price index (LRPI) which relates prices and trophic levels. Moreover, an inferential analysis of major seafood category statistical trends in market prices and quantities and their positive and negative correlations was undertaken. In general, these market trends contributed substantially to identifying and clarifying the changes that occurred. Considerations of the behavior of demand, supply and markets are included. In particular, while the MTI did not support a “fishing down the marine food web” hypothesis, other indicators did show the continued scarcity of major high trophic level categories and fisheries target species. Overall, the results indicate that the analysis of fishery landings, or of certain other indicators alone, can mask real changes. Rather, a joint ecological-econometric analysis provides better evidence of the direction of ecosystem pressures and stock health. This method for detecting market changes across the food web may be particularly helpful for systems considered data-poor but where fish market data have been archived. This study further elucidates historical changes and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight ecosystem.

  16. Design and analysis of electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sioshansi, Ramteen Mehr

    Restructured competitive electricity markets rely on designing market-based mechanisms which can efficiently coordinate the power system and minimize the exercise of market power. This dissertation is a series of essays which develop and analyze models of restructured electricity markets. Chapter 2 studies the incentive properties of a co-optimized market for energy and reserves that pays reserved generators their implied opportunity cost---which is the difference between their stated energy cost and the market-clearing price for energy. By analyzing the market as a competitive direct revelation mechanism we examine the properties of efficient equilibria and demonstrate that generators have incentives to shade their stated costs below actual costs. We further demonstrate that the expected energy payments of our mechanism is less than that in a disjoint market for energy only. Chapter 3 is an empirical validation of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. By comparing theoretically optimal supply functions and actual generation offers into the Texas spot balancing market, we show the SFE to fit the actual behavior of the largest generators in market. This not only serves to validate the model, but also demonstrates the extent to which firms exercise market power. Chapters 4 and 5 examine equity, incentive, and efficiency issues in the design of non-convex commitment auctions. We demonstrate that different near-optimal solutions to a central unit commitment problem which have similar-sized optimality gaps will generally yield vastly different energy prices and payoffs to individual generators. Although solving the mixed integer program to optimality will overcome such issues, we show that this relies on achieving optimality of the commitment---which may not be tractable for large-scale problems within the allotted timeframe. We then simulate and compare a competitive benchmark for a market with centralized and self commitment in order to bound the efficiency

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    Since November, New England has had the highest average spot natural gas prices in the nation. Average prices at the Algonquin Citygate trading point, a widely used index for New England natural gas buyers, have been $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) higher than natural gas prices at the Henry Hub, and more than $2 per MMBtu higher than average spot price at Transco Zone 6 NY, which serves New York City and has historically traded at prices similar to those in New England.

  18. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas-fired units account for nearly 90% of the total generating capacity added in the U.S. between 1999 and 2005 (EIA 2006b), bringing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation to 19%. Looking ahead over the next decade, the EIA expects this trend to continue, increasing the market share of gas-fired generation to 22% by 2015 (EIA 2007a). Though these numbers are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is makingmore » similar advances in many other countries as well. A large percentage of the total cost of gas-fired generation is attributable to fuel costs--i.e., natural gas prices. For example, at current spot prices of around $7/MMBtu, fuel costs account for more than 75% of the levelized cost of energy from a new combined cycle gas turbine, and more than 90% of its operating costs (EIA 2007a). Furthermore, given that gas-fired plants are often the marginal supply units that set the market-clearing price for all generators in a competitive wholesale market, there is a direct link between natural gas prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, the dramatic increase in natural gas prices since the 1990s should be a cause for ratepayer concern. Figure 1 shows the daily price history of the 'first-nearby' (i.e., closest to expiration) NYMEX natural gas futures contract (black line) at Henry Hub, along with the futures strip (i.e., the full series of futures contracts) from August 22, 2007 (red line). First, nearby prices, which closely track spot prices, have recently been trading within a $7-9/MMBtu range in the United States and, as shown by the futures strip, are expected to remain there through 2012. These price levels are $6/MMBtu higher than the $1-3/MMBtu range seen throughout most of the 1990s, demonstrating significant price escalation for

  19. Update on inflation of journal prices: Brandon/Hill list journals and the scientific, technical, and medical publishing market.

    PubMed

    Schlimgen, Joan B; Kronenfeld, Michael R

    2004-07-01

    The original study of journal prices, using the "Brandon/ Hill Selected List of Books and Journals for the Small Medical Library," was first published in 1980 and periodically updated. This research continues to measure price increases for these titles for the periods 1996 to 1999 and 1999 to 2002. The 111 journal titles that have appeared in each published list from 1967 to 2001 were included in the study. Institutional subscription price data were gathered for each journal for the years 1996, 1999, and 2002 and were compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same years. The average journal price continues to rise significantly and is independent of the CPI. The study found that prices have jumped 51.9% from 1996 to 1999 and 32% from 1999 to 2002, which is consistent with nearly every recent journal price study. The unprecedented rise in journal prices negatively affects the purchasing power of medical libraries. This paper examines the economic and technological pressures on the science, technology, and medical journals market that contribute to high prices and identifies a number of initiatives in the biological and health sciences that utilize alternative models for disseminating scientific research.

  20. Export chip prices as a proxy for nonsawtimber prices in the Pacific Northwest.

    Treesearch

    Gwenlyn M. Busby

    2006-01-01

    Forest-land managers use price data and market analysis to form expectations and make informed management decisions. There is an abundance of price data for sawtimber, but for nonsawtimber, the availability of price data is limited. This constrains the ability of forest-land managers to form reasonable price expectations for stands that contain both sawtimber and...

  1. 48 CFR 8.707 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Prices. 8.707 Section 8... Blind or Severely Disabled 8.707 Prices. (a) The prices of items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee. All prices for supplies ordered under this subpart are f.o.b. origin...

  2. Using Intelligent System Approaches for Simulation of Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamagami, Tomoki

    Significances and approaches of applying intelligent systems to artificial electricity market is discussed. In recent years, with the moving into restructuring of electric system in Japan, the deregulation for the electric market is progressing. The most major change of the market is a founding of JEPX (Japan Electric Power eXchange.) which is expected to help lower power bills through effective use of surplus electricity. The electricity market designates exchange of electric power between electric power suppliers (supplier agents) themselves. In the market, the goal of each supplier agents is to maximize its revenue for the entire trading period, and shows complex behavior, which can model by a multiagent platform. Using the multiagent simulations which have been studied as “artificial market" helps to predict the spot prices, to plan investments, and to discuss the rules of market. Moreover, intelligent system approaches provide for constructing more reasonable policies of each agents. This article, first, makes a brief summary of the electricity market in Japan and the studies of artificial markets. Then, a survey of tipical studies of artificial electricity market is listed. Through these topics, the future vision is presented for the studies.

  3. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price or...

  4. Oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets: Large-scale simulation and policy analysis using complementarity models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helman, E. Udi

    This dissertation conducts research into the large-scale simulation of oligopolistic competition in wholesale electricity markets. The dissertation has two parts. Part I is an examination of the structure and properties of several spatial, or network, equilibrium models of oligopolistic electricity markets formulated as mixed linear complementarity problems (LCP). Part II is a large-scale application of such models to the electricity system that encompasses most of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, the Eastern Interconnection. Part I consists of Chapters 1 to 6. The models developed in this part continue research into mixed LCP models of oligopolistic electricity markets initiated by Hobbs [67] and subsequently developed by Metzler [87] and Metzler, Hobbs and Pang [88]. Hobbs' central contribution is a network market model with Cournot competition in generation and a price-taking spatial arbitrage firm that eliminates spatial price discrimination by the Cournot firms. In one variant, the solution to this model is shown to be equivalent to the "no arbitrage" condition in a "pool" market, in which a Regional Transmission Operator optimizes spot sales such that the congestion price between two locations is exactly equivalent to the difference in the energy prices at those locations (commonly known as locational marginal pricing). Extensions to this model are presented in Chapters 5 and 6. One of these is a market model with a profit-maximizing arbitrage firm. This model is structured as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC), but due to the linearity of its constraints, can be solved as a mixed LCP. Part II consists of Chapters 7 to 12. The core of these chapters is a large-scale simulation of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection applying one of the Cournot competition with arbitrage models. This is the first oligopolistic equilibrium market model to encompass the full Eastern Interconnection with a realistic network representation (using

  5. Two essays on electricity markets: Entry into hydroelectric generation industry and the political cycle of regulated prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simoes

    This dissertation is about the electricity industry and the problems that arise with the liberalization and de-regulation of the industry. Characteristics intrinsic to the electricity market create problems that can compromise an efficient functioning of this market. Each of the two chapters of this dissertation focus on a specific aspect of this industry. The first chapter analyzes entry in the hydroelectric generation industry. The operation of a generator upstream regularizes the river flow for generators located downstream on the same river, increasing the production capacity of the latter. This positive externality increases the attractiveness of the locations downstream whenever a generator decides to enter upstream. Therefore, the entry decision of a generator in a given location may affect all entry decisions in potential locations for plants located downstream. I first model the problem of generators located in cascade on the same river and show the positive effect of the externality. Second, I use a panel of data on investment decisions of hydro-generation firms to estimate an entry model that takes into account the effect of the externality generated by entry upriver. The results show a positive incentive to locate downstream from existing plants and from locations where entry is likely to occur. Location characteristics also play an important role on the entrants' decisions. The model provides estimates of the average expected market price across the different years covered by the sample and shows that it rose one year before the energy crisis of 2001, evidencing that the market anticipated the crisis. This result has important implications on the evaluation of the Brazilian market design. It shows that entry responded to a rise in expectations about excess demand in the future, contradicting the argument that the crisis was a consequence of mis-designed market institutions. The second chapter deals with the problem of the political cycle in regulated

  6. Essays on competition in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bustos Salvagno, Ricardo Javier

    The first chapter shows how technology decisions affect entry in commodity markets with oligopolistic competition, like the electricity market. I demonstrate an entry deterrence effect that works through cost uncertainty. Technology's cost uncertainty affects spot market expected profits through forward market trades. Therefore, incentives to engage in forward trading shape firms' decisions on production technologies. I show that high-cost but low-risk technologies are adopted by risk-averse incumbents to deter entry. Strategic technology adoption can end in a equilibrium where high-cost technologies prevail over low-cost but riskier ones. In the case of incumbents who are less risk-averse than entrants, entry deterrence is achieved by choosing riskier technologies. The main results do not depend on who chooses their technology first. Chapter two examines the Chilean experience on auctions for long-term supply contracts in electricity markets from 2006 to 2011. Using a divisible-good auction model, I provide a theoretical framework that explains bidding behavior in terms of expected spot prices and contracting positions. The model is extended to include potential strategic behavior on contracting decisions. Empirical estimations confirm the main determinants of bidding behavior and show heterogeneity in the marginal cost of over-contracting depending on size and incumbency. Chapter three analyzes the lag in capacity expansion in the Chilean electricity market from 2000 to 2004. Regarded as a result of regulatory uncertainty, the role of delays in the construction of a large hydro-power plant has been overlooked by the literature. We argue that those delays postponed projected investment and gave small windows of opportunity that only incumbents could take advantage of. We are able to retrace the history of investments through real-time information from the regulator's reports and a simple model enables us to explain the effect of those delays on suggested and under

  7. Drugs Cheaper Than Threepenny: The Market of Extremely Low-Priced Drugs within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Chou, Li-Fang

    2014-01-01

    While most drug policy researches paid attention to the financial impact of expensive drugs, the market situation of low-priced drugs in a country was seldom analyzed. We used the nationally representative claims datasets to explore the status within the National Health Insurance (NHI) in Taiwan. In 2007, a total of 12,443 distinct drug items had been prescribed 853,250,147 times with total expenditure of 105,216,950,198 new Taiwan dollars (NTD). Among them, 7,366 oral drug items accounted for 701,353,383 prescribed items and 68,133,988,960 NTD. Besides, 2,887 items (39.2% of oral drug items) belonged to cheap drugs with the unit price ≤1 NTD (about 0.03 of US dollar). While the top one item among all oral drugs had already a market share of 5.0%, 30 items 30.3% and 107 items 50.0%, the cheap drugs with aggregate 332,893,462 prescribed items (47.5% of all prescribed oral drug items) only accounted for 2,750,725,433 NTD (4.0% of expenditure for oral drugs and 2.6% of total drug expenditure). The drug market of Taiwan's NHI was abundant in cheap drugs. The unreasonably low prices of drugs might not guarantee the quality of pharmaceutical care and the sustainability of a healthy pharmaceutical industry in the long run. PMID:24719568

  8. Drugs cheaper than threepenny: the market of extremely low-priced drugs within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bih-Ru; Chou, Chia-Lin; Hsu, Chia-Chen; Chou, Yueh-Ching; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chou, Li-Fang

    2014-01-01

    While most drug policy researches paid attention to the financial impact of expensive drugs, the market situation of low-priced drugs in a country was seldom analyzed. We used the nationally representative claims datasets to explore the status within the National Health Insurance (NHI) in Taiwan. In 2007, a total of 12,443 distinct drug items had been prescribed 853,250,147 times with total expenditure of 105,216,950,198 new Taiwan dollars (NTD). Among them, 7,366 oral drug items accounted for 701,353,383 prescribed items and 68,133,988,960 NTD. Besides, 2,887 items (39.2% of oral drug items) belonged to cheap drugs with the unit price ≤ 1 NTD (about 0.03 of US dollar). While the top one item among all oral drugs had already a market share of 5.0%, 30 items 30.3% and 107 items 50.0%, the cheap drugs with aggregate 332,893,462 prescribed items (47.5% of all prescribed oral drug items) only accounted for 2,750,725,433 NTD (4.0% of expenditure for oral drugs and 2.6% of total drug expenditure). The drug market of Taiwan's NHI was abundant in cheap drugs. The unreasonably low prices of drugs might not guarantee the quality of pharmaceutical care and the sustainability of a healthy pharmaceutical industry in the long run.

  9. A Study of Demand Response Effect of Thermal Storage Air-Conditioning Systems in Consideration of Electricity Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omagari, Yuko; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro

    This paper evaluates the economic impact of the introduction of customer-owned Thermal Storage Air-conditioning (TSA) systems, in an electricity market, from the viewpoint of the load service entity. We perform simulations on the condition that several thousand customers install TSA systems and shift peak demand in an electricity market by one percent. Our numerical results indicate that the purchase cost of the LSE was reduced through load management of customers with TSA systems. The introduction of TSA systems also reduced the volatility of market clearing price and reduced the whole-trade cost in an electricity market.

  10. Price Discrimination, Economies of Scale, and Profits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Donghyun

    2000-01-01

    Demonstrates that it is possible for economies of scale to induce a price-discriminating monopolist to sell in an unprofitable market where the average cost always exceeds the price. States that higher profits in the profitable market caused by economies of scale may exceed losses incurred in the unprofitable market. (CMK)

  11. Price discrimination in essential medicines: evidence from International Drug Price Indicator Guide data.

    PubMed

    Hanlon, Michael; Zhang, Raymond

    2013-03-01

    Few data are available on what donors, governments and other implementing organisations pay for the medicines they procure. To partly address this shortcoming, we analyse transactions of pharmaceuticals on the WHO's essential medicines list. Our objective was to identify the determinants of prices paid for these drugs. We used data from the 2008 version of the International Drug Price Indicator Guide. We normalised transactions by representing their value as a 'price per daily dose'. We used a mixed-effects regression model to quantify the impact of observable characteristics on prices paid. We present evidence of first-degree price discrimination in the market for essential medicines. We find that as a country's per capita wealth doubles, prices paid for the same pharmaceutical increase by 33%. These data indicate that purchasing agents from wealthier countries pay more for essential medicines, all factors constant. This behaviour is not a form of development assistance for health but rather is indicative of inefficient markets in which buyers' lack of information enables suppliers to charge higher prices than they could otherwise.

  12. Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

  13. Perspectives on Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Litten, Larry H.

    1986-01-01

    The most provocative perspectives on pricing for colleges and universities have come from the introduction of marketing into higher education. A brief review of these developments is offered to serve as an orientation for the consideration of pricing issues per se. (Author/MLW)

  14. Price-cap Regulation, Uncertainty and the Price Evolution of New Pharmaceuticals.

    PubMed

    Shajarizadeh, Ali; Hollis, Aidan

    2015-08-01

    This paper examines the effect of the regulations restricting price increases on the evolution of pharmaceutical prices. A novel theoretical model shows that this policy leads firms to price new drugs with uncertain demand above the expected value initially. Price decreases after drug launch are more likely, the higher the uncertainty. We empirically test the model's predictions using data from the Canadian pharmaceutical market. The level of uncertainty is shown to play a crucial role in drug pricing strategies. © 2014 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Essays on oil price volatility and irreversible investment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pastor, Daniel J.

    In chapter 1, we provide an extensive and systematic evaluation of the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of daily spot crude oil prices. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered significant gains in forecasting performance of Markov Switching GARCH models over GARCH models for the volatility of financial assets and crude oil futures. We find that, for spot oil price returns, non-switching models perform better in the short run, whereas switching models tend to do better at longer horizons. In chapter 2, I investigate the impact of volatility on firms' irreversible investment decisions using real options theory. Cost incurred in oil drilling is considered sunk cost, thus irreversible. I collect detailed data on onshore, development oil well drilling on the North Slope of Alaska from 2003 to 2014. Volatility is modeled by constructing GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH forecasts based on monthly real oil prices, and realized volatility from 5-minute intraday returns of oil futures prices. Using a duration model, I show that oil price volatility generally has a negative relationship with the hazard rate of drilling an oil well both when aggregating all the fields, and in individual fields.

  16. Update on inflation of journal prices: Brandon/Hill list journals and the scientific, technical, and medical publishing market*

    PubMed Central

    Schlimgen, Joan B.; Kronenfeld, Michael R.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: The original study of journal prices, using the “Brandon/ Hill Selected List of Books and Journals for the Small Medical Library,” was first published in 1980 and periodically updated. This research continues to measure price increases for these titles for the periods 1996 to 1999 and 1999 to 2002. Methodology: The 111 journal titles that have appeared in each published list from 1967 to 2001 were included in the study. Institutional subscription price data were gathered for each journal for the years 1996, 1999, and 2002 and were compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same years. Results: The average journal price continues to rise significantly and is independent of the CPI. The study found that prices have jumped 51.9% from 1996 to 1999 and 32% from 1999 to 2002, which is consistent with nearly every recent journal price study. Conclusion: The unprecedented rise in journal prices negatively affects the purchasing power of medical libraries. This paper examines the economic and technological pressures on the science, technology, and medical journals market that contribute to high prices and identifies a number of initiatives in the biological and health sciences that utilize alternative models for disseminating scientific research. PMID:15243636

  17. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  18. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  19. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  20. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  1. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  2. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  3. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  4. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  5. 7 CFR 28.426 - Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color. 28.426 Section 28.426 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Good Ordinary Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  6. 7 CFR 28.424 - Strict Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.424 Section 28.424 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Spotted Color. Strict Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set...

  7. Impact of cigarette minimum price laws on the retail price of cigarettes in the USA.

    PubMed

    Tynan, Michael A; Ribisl, Kurt M; Loomis, Brett R

    2013-05-01

    Cigarette price increases prevent youth initiation, reduce cigarette consumption and increase the number of smokers who quit. Cigarette minimum price laws (MPLs), which typically require cigarette wholesalers and retailers to charge a minimum percentage mark-up for cigarette sales, have been identified as an intervention that can potentially increase cigarette prices. 24 states and the District of Columbia have cigarette MPLs. Using data extracted from SCANTRACK retail scanner data from the Nielsen company, average cigarette prices were calculated for designated market areas in states with and without MPLs in three retail channels: grocery stores, drug stores and convenience stores. Regression models were estimated using the average cigarette pack price in each designated market area and calendar quarter in 2009 as the outcome variable. The average difference in cigarette pack prices are 46 cents in the grocery channel, 29 cents in the drug channel and 13 cents in the convenience channel, with prices being lower in states with MPLs for all three channels. The findings that MPLs do not raise cigarette prices could be the result of a lack of compliance and enforcement by the state or could be attributed to the minimum state mark-up being lower than the free-market mark-up for cigarettes. Rather than require a minimum mark-up, which can be nullified by promotional incentives and discounts, states and countries could strengthen MPLs by setting a simple 'floor price' that is the true minimum price for all cigarettes or could prohibit discounts to consumers and retailers.

  8. Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

    2017-09-01

    In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

  9. Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

    2015-05-01

    Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

  10. The impact of a national prescription drug formulary on prices, market share, and spending: lessons for Medicare?

    PubMed

    Huskamp, Haiden A; Epstein, Arnold M; Blumenthal, David

    2003-01-01

    Several recent bills in Congress to add a Medicare prescription drug benefit would allow the use of formularies to control costs. However, there is little empirical evidence of the impact of formularies among elderly and disabled populations. We assess the effect of a closed formulary implemented by the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in 1997 on drug prices, market share, and drug spending. We find that the VHA National Formulary was effective at shifting prescribing behavior toward the selected drugs, achieving sizable price reductions from manufacturers, and greatly decreasing drug spending.

  11. Obtaining fruit and vegetables for the lowest prices: pricing survey of different outlets and geographical analysis of competition effects.

    PubMed

    Pearson, Amber L; Winter, Pieta R; McBreen, Ben; Stewart, Georgia; Roets, Rianda; Nutsford, Daniel; Bowie, Christopher; Donnellan, Niamh; Wilson, Nick

    2014-01-01

    Inadequate fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption is an important dietary risk factor for disease internationally. High F&V prices can be a barrier to dietary intake and so to improve understanding of this topic we surveyed prices and potential competition between F&V outlet types. Over a three week early autumn period in 2013, prices were collected bi-weekly for 18 commonly purchased F&Vs from farmers' markets (FM) selling local produce (n = 3), other F&V markets (OFVM) (n = 5), supermarkets that neighbored markets (n = 8), and more distant supermarkets (n = 8), (in urban Wellington and Christchurch areas of New Zealand). Prices from an online supermarket were also collected. A total of 3120 prices were collected. Most F&Vs (13/18) were significantly cheaper at OFVMs than supermarkets. Over half of the F&Vs (10/18) were significantly cheaper at nearby compared to distant supermarkets, providing evidence of a moderate 'halo effect' in price reductions in supermarkets that neighbored markets. Weekend (vs midweek) prices were also significantly cheaper at nearby (vs distant) supermarkets, supporting evidence for a 'halo effect'. Ideal weekly 'food basket' prices for a two adult, two child family were: OFVMs (NZ$76), online supermarket ($113), nearby supermarkets ($124), distant supermarkets ($127), and FMs ($138). This represents a savings of $49 per week (US$26) by using OFVMs relative to (non-online) supermarkets. Similarly, a shift from non-online supermarkets to the online supermarket would generate a $13 saving. In these locations general markets appear to be providing some substantially lower prices for fruit and vegetables than supermarkets. They also appear to be depressing prices in neighboring supermarkets. These results, when supplemented by other needed research, may help inform the case for interventions to improve access to fruit and vegetables, particularly for low-income populations.

  12. Personal Computer Price and Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Walt

    1993-01-01

    Discusses personal computer price trends since 1986; describes offerings and prices for four direct-market suppliers, i.e., Dell CompuAdd, PC Brand, and Gateway 2000; and discusses overall value and price/performance ratios. Tables and graphs chart value over time. (EA)

  13. Coal Markets

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    Summarizes spot coal prices by coal commodity regions (i.e., Central Appalachia (CAP), Northern Appalachia (NAP), Illinois Basin (ILB), Power River Basin (PRB), and Uinta Basin (UIB)) in the United States.

  14. Pricing Policy and the College Choice Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chapman, Randall G.

    1979-01-01

    A marketing management paradigm for academe is discussed along with aspects of the pricing policy process. The two most important factors affecting the college choice process are shown to be college quality and price-related considerations. Implications for marketing are discussed. (Author/LBH)

  15. High prices for generics in Australia - more competition might help.

    PubMed

    Bulfone, Liliana

    2009-05-01

    It is commonly believed that dispensed prices of medicines in Australia are substantially lower than those in other developed countries, particularly the US. This article reports the results of an analysis comparing dispensed prices for the most commonly prescribed and the highest cost items in Australia with dispensed prices in the US. Although a large majority of items are less expensive in Australia than in the US, Australian prices are higher for a substantial number of products, particularly generic drugs. This article examines various policies affecting the pricing of generics in Australia. It is postulated that the main cause for higher prices for a substantial number of generic products is the lack of price competition. This results from government policy which ensures that a price reduction by one company is communicated immediately to all competitors in that market along with an invitation to match the reduced price. The dominant strategy for all suppliers is to only reduce their price in response to a reduction in price by a competitor. The result is a lack of differentiation in pricing across brands of a medicine on the Schedule of Pharmaceutical Benefits. The government could improve the structure of the generics market and encourage greater competition by ceasing to disclose competitor firms' offers to other competitors. The government could conduct pricing reviews of each generic product relatively infrequently (eg, only once annually or every 18 months). At the time of the pricing review, the government would request confidential offers on price for a generic from all players in the market. Brands should then all be listed under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) at the offered price. Prices offered by the individual supplier would apply until the next pricing review. The PBS would continue to subsidise up to the price of the lowest priced brand, with brand premiums applying to all brands priced higher than the benchmark price. Such an

  16. A prospect theory explanation of the disposition to trade losing investments for less than market price.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, D J

    2002-06-01

    Investors have a proven general reluctance to realize losses. The theory of "mental accounting" suggests that losses are easier to accept when mentally integrated with either preceding losses or with compensatory gains. Mental integration is made easier when a failed asset is exchanged against a new, apparently profitable, acquisition. The alternative is to sell the existing asset on the open market before re-investing the proceeds as desired. This is emotionally less appealing than "rolling over" a losing investment into a new venture by way of an asset trade. The psychological benefits of exchanging rather than selling a failed asset come at a cost. It is typical of trade-in arrangements, e.g., where one trades an old car against a new one, that the effective sale price of the existing asset is less than current market value. Acceptance of this low price adds to the investor's total monetary loss on the existing asset but is essential to an overall package deal apart from which that asset would often remain belatedly unsold.

  17. Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

    This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. We explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for longterm reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs« less

  18. Ambulatory Surgery Centers and Prices in Hospital Outpatient Departments.

    PubMed

    Carey, Kathleen

    2017-04-01

    Specialty providers claim to offer a new competitive benchmark for efficient delivery of health care. This article explores this view by examining evidence for price competition between ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs). I studied the impact of ASC market presence on actual prices paid to HOPDs during 2007-2010 for four common surgical procedures that were performed in both provider types. For the procedures examined, HOPDs received payments from commercial insurers in the range of 3.25% to 5.15% lower for each additional ASC per 100,000 persons in a market. HOPDs may have less negotiating leverage with commercial insurers on price in markets with high ASC market penetration, resulting in relatively lower prices.

  19. VERB - a social marketing campaign to increase physical activity among youth.

    PubMed

    Wong, Faye; Huhman, Marian; Heitzler, Carrie; Asbury, Lori; Bretthauer-Mueller, Rosemary; McCarthy, Susan; Londe, Paula

    2004-07-01

    The VERB campaign is a multiethnic media campaign with a goal to increase and maintain physical activity among tweens, or children aged nine to 13 years. Parents, especially mothers aged 29 to 46, and other sources of influence on tweens (e.g., teachers, youth program leaders) are the secondary audiences of the VERB initiative. VERB applies sophisticated commercial marketing techniques to address the public health problem of sedentary lifestyles of American children, using the social marketing principles of product, price, place, and promotion. In this paper, we describe how these four principles were applied to formulate the strategies and tactics of the VERB campaign, and we provide examples of the multimedia materials (e.g., posters, print advertising, television, radio spots) that were created.

  20. The Basic Economics of CD-ROM Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erkkila, John E.

    1991-01-01

    This explanation of how the basic economic model of pricing applies to the CD-ROM industry considers the supply and demand sides of the market and compares three distinct pricing strategies: (1) pricing to maximize profits; (2) average cost pricing; and (3) marginal cost pricing. (EAM)

  1. Price schedules coordination for electricity pool markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legbedji, Alexis Motto

    2002-04-01

    We consider the optimal coordination of a class of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, which is formally interpreted as a resource-allocation problem. Many decomposition techniques were proposed to circumvent the difficulty of solving large systems with limited computer resources. The considerable improvement in computer architecture has allowed the solution of large-scale problems with increasing speed. Consequently, interest in decomposition techniques has waned. Nonetheless, there is an important class of applications for which decomposition techniques will still be relevant, among others, distributed systems---the Internet, perhaps, being the most conspicuous example---and competitive economic systems. Conceptually, a competitive economic system is a collection of agents that have similar or different objectives while sharing the same system resources. In theory, constructing a large-scale mathematical program and solving it centrally, using currently available computing power can optimize such systems of agents. In practice, however, because agents are self-interested and not willing to reveal some sensitive corporate data, one cannot solve these kinds of coordination problems by simply maximizing the sum of agent's objective functions with respect to their constraints. An iterative price decomposition or Lagrangian dual method is considered best suited because it can operate with limited information. A price-directed strategy, however, can only work successfully when coordinating or equilibrium prices exist, which is not generally the case when a weak duality is unavoidable. Showing when such prices exist and how to compute them is the main subject of this thesis. Among our results, we show that, if the Lagrangian function of a primal program is additively separable, price schedules coordination may be attained. The prices are Lagrange multipliers, and are also the decision variables of a dual program. In addition, we propose a new form of

  2. Two-faced property of a market factor in asset pricing and diversification effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eom, Cheoljun

    2017-04-01

    This study empirically investigates the test hypothesis that a market factor acting as a representative common factor in the pricing models has a negative influence on constructing a well-diversified portfolio from the Markowitz mean-variance optimization function (MVOF). We use the comparative correlation matrix (C-CM) method to control a single eigenvalue among all eigenvalues included in the sample correlation matrix (S-CM), through the random matrix theory (RMT). In particular, this study observes the effect of the largest eigenvalue that has the property of the market factor. According to the results, the largest eigenvalue has the highest explanatory power on the stock return changes. The C-CM without the largest eigenvalue in the S-CM constructs a more diversified portfolio capable of improving the practical applicability of the MVOF. Moreover, the more diversified portfolio constructed from this C-CM has better out-of-sample performance in the future period. These results support the test hypothesis for the two-faced property of the market factor, defined by the largest eigenvalue.

  3. Quantum Bohmian model for financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choustova, Olga Al.

    2007-01-01

    We apply methods of quantum mechanics for mathematical modeling of price dynamics at the financial market. The Hamiltonian formalism on the price/price-change phase space describes the classical-like evolution of prices. This classical dynamics of prices is determined by “hard” conditions (natural resources, industrial production, services and so on). These conditions are mathematically described by the classical financial potential V(q), where q=(q1,…,qn) is the vector of prices of various shares. But the information exchange and market psychology play important (and sometimes determining) role in price dynamics. We propose to describe such behavioral financial factors by using the pilot wave (Bohmian) model of quantum mechanics. The theory of financial behavioral waves takes into account the market psychology. The real trajectories of prices are determined (through the financial analogue of the second Newton law) by two financial potentials: classical-like V(q) (“hard” market conditions) and quantum-like U(q) (behavioral market conditions).

  4. 7 CFR 1124.51 - Class I differential and price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.51 Class I differential and price. The Class I... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Class I differential and price. 1124.51 Section 1124.51 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING...

  5. 7 CFR 1124.51 - Class I differential and price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.51 Class I differential and price. The Class I... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Class I differential and price. 1124.51 Section 1124.51 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING...

  6. 7 CFR 1030.51 - Class I differential and price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1030.51 Class I differential and price. The Class I... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Class I differential and price. 1030.51 Section 1030.51 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING...

  7. 7 CFR 1030.51 - Class I differential and price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1030.51 Class I differential and price. The Class I... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Class I differential and price. 1030.51 Section 1030.51 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING...

  8. 7 CFR 1030.51 - Class I differential and price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1030.51 Class I differential and price. The Class I... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Class I differential and price. 1030.51 Section 1030.51 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING...

  9. 7 CFR 1124.51 - Class I differential and price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.51 Class I differential and price. The Class I... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Class I differential and price. 1124.51 Section 1124.51 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING...

  10. A hedonic price analysis of the outfitter market for trout fishing in the Rocky Mountain West

    Treesearch

    Heidi M. Pitts; Jennifer A. Thacher; Patricia A. Champ; Robert P. Berrens

    2012-01-01

    Trout is the most popular sport fish in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico where fishing outfitters bring revenues to many rural economies. This article uses the hedonic pricing method on a monopolistically competitive outfitter market in those four states to examine angler values for trout fishing characteristics. A total of 1,685 fishing trip observations...

  11. Coupled effects of market impact and asymmetric sensitivity in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, Li-Xin; Xu, Wen-Juan; Ren, Fei; Shi, Yong-Dong

    2013-05-01

    By incorporating market impact and asymmetric sensitivity into the evolutionary minority game, we study the coevolutionary dynamics of stock prices and investment strategies in financial markets. Both the stock price movement and the investors’ global behavior are found to be closely related to the phase region they fall into. Within the region where the market impact is small, investors’ asymmetric response to gains and losses leads to the occurrence of herd behavior, when all the investors are prone to behave similarly in an extreme way and large price fluctuations occur. A linear relation between the standard deviation of stock price changes and the mean value of strategies is found. With full market impact, the investors tend to self-segregate into opposing groups and the introduction of asymmetric sensitivity leads to the disappearance of dominant strategies. Compared with the situations in the stock market with little market impact, the stock price fluctuations are suppressed and an efficient market occurs. Theoretical analyses indicate that the mechanism of phase transition from clustering to self-segregation in the present model is similar to that in the majority-minority game and the occurrence and disappearance of efficient markets are related to the competition between the trend-following and the trend-aversion forces. The clustering of the strategies in the present model results from the majority-wins effect and the wealth-driven mechanism makes the market become predictable.

  12. Competitive pricing within pharmaceutical classes: evidence on "follow-on" drugs in Germany 1993-2008.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Michael T; Frenzel, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Competition from "follow-on" drugs has been a highly controversial issue. Manufacturers launching new molecules in existing drug classes have often been criticized for inflating health systems' expenses, but it has been argued that such drugs increase therapeutic options. Economic theory suggests that follow-on drugs induce price competition. We contribute to this discussion by addressing the topic of pricing at market entry and price development in the German market. We measure determinants of price strategies of follow-on drugs using regression analyses, considering all new molecules launched in the German market from 1993 to 2008. Prices of products are standardized on defined daily dosages controlling for sales volumes based on data from the IMS Health DPM database and for the therapeutic quality of a new product using ratings by Fricke/Klaus as a proxy for innovation. We identify prices correlating with therapeutic value at market entry. While the first two molecules engage in quality competition, price discounts below the market price can be observed from the third entrant on. Price discounts are even more distinct in development races with several drugs entering the market within 2 years and in classes with a low degree of therapeutic differentiation. Prices remain relatively constant over time. This study contributes to assessments of competition in pharmaceutical markets focusing on price strategies of new market entrants. After an initial phase of market building, further follow-on products induce price competition. Largely unchanged prices after 4 years may be interpreted as quality competition and can be attributed to prices in Germany being anchor points for international price referencing.

  13. Life is getting scary in the oil markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Uttal, B.

    1980-01-28

    In the four years prior to 1978, crude was plentiful and often sold on the spot market for less than official OPEC prices. Then in late 1978, Iran quit exporting, and a severe winter in Europe drove stocks of heating oil far below their usual levels. Fear of shortages sent spot prices for heating oil up 112%, and crude prices followed. Many OPEC members realized that sticking to the cartel's official selling price was no longer in their interests. Some OPEC members are now pulling contracts out from under the majors and are selling directly to consuming nations. The movemore » away from the majors has increased the chances that an end user will have its supplies disrupted, causing it to buy and stockpile supplies beyond storage capacity. The producing states' new dominance has had its greatest impact not on the majors but on a special class of customers who rely on the majors for much of their crude. These are the third-party buyers, a category that includes independent refiners, governments, and any other customer not directly associated with the majors' captive distribution networks. DOE estimates that some independent refiners have lost 40% of their third-party supplies; Japan has been informed that, as of March 1980, it will lose all of the oil it receives under third-party contracts. It now seems that none of the majors has enough crude to run its own refineries and to keep up supplies to its established third-party customers. And, when supplies are loose, cartel members are likely to cut production. One analyst has said that OPEC could fulfill all of their revenue needs and still slash production by about 70%. (MCW)« less

  14. Obtaining Fruit and Vegetables for the Lowest Prices: Pricing Survey of Different Outlets and Geographical Analysis of Competition Effects

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, Amber L.; Winter, Pieta R.; McBreen, Ben; Stewart, Georgia; Roets, Rianda; Nutsford, Daniel; Bowie, Christopher; Donnellan, Niamh; Wilson, Nick

    2014-01-01

    Aims Inadequate fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption is an important dietary risk factor for disease internationally. High F&V prices can be a barrier to dietary intake and so to improve understanding of this topic we surveyed prices and potential competition between F&V outlet types. Methods Over a three week early autumn period in 2013, prices were collected bi-weekly for 18 commonly purchased F&Vs from farmers' markets (FM) selling local produce (n = 3), other F&V markets (OFVM) (n = 5), supermarkets that neighbored markets (n = 8), and more distant supermarkets (n = 8), (in urban Wellington and Christchurch areas of New Zealand). Prices from an online supermarket were also collected. Results A total of 3120 prices were collected. Most F&Vs (13/18) were significantly cheaper at OFVMs than supermarkets. Over half of the F&Vs (10/18) were significantly cheaper at nearby compared to distant supermarkets, providing evidence of a moderate ‘halo effect’ in price reductions in supermarkets that neighbored markets. Weekend (vs midweek) prices were also significantly cheaper at nearby (vs distant) supermarkets, supporting evidence for a ‘halo effect’. Ideal weekly ‘food basket’ prices for a two adult, two child family were: OFVMs (NZ$76), online supermarket ($113), nearby supermarkets ($124), distant supermarkets ($127), and FMs ($138). This represents a savings of $49 per week (US$26) by using OFVMs relative to (non-online) supermarkets. Similarly, a shift from non-online supermarkets to the online supermarket would generate a $13 saving. Conclusions In these locations general markets appear to be providing some substantially lower prices for fruit and vegetables than supermarkets. They also appear to be depressing prices in neighboring supermarkets. These results, when supplemented by other needed research, may help inform the case for interventions to improve access to fruit and vegetables, particularly for low-income populations. PMID

  15. Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market.

    PubMed

    Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

    2013-07-01

    Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999-2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. UK. UK smokers. Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and 'ultra-low price' (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  16. Operation Valuation: Teaching Pricing Concepts in an Experiential Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Adam J.; Treen, Emily

    2016-01-01

    Although marketing education has seen a dramatic shift toward hands-on, experiential learning in recent years, the teaching of pricing has fallen behind complementary elements of the marketing mix in pedagogical execution. Although the teaching of pricing has shifted focus from economic-based models to value-based pricing in theory, available…

  17. Global integration of European tuna markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez-Toribio, Ramòn; Guillotreau, Patrice; Mongruel, Rémi

    2010-07-01

    This paper evaluates the degree of integration between the world market and the major European marketplaces of frozen and canned tuna through both vertical and horizontal price relationships. Spatial linkages are investigated horizontally in order to estimate the connection between the European market and the world-wide market on the primary stage of the value chain. One of the key results is the high level of market integration at the ex-vessel stage, and the price leadership of yellowfin tuna over skipjack tuna. The same approach is applied at the ex-factory level. Basically, the European market for final goods appears to be segmented between the Northern countries consuming low-priced canned skipjack tuna imported from Asia (mainly Thailand) and the Southern countries (Italy, Spain) processing and importing yellowfin-based products sold at higher prices. France appears to be an intermediate market where both products are consumed. The former market is found to be well integrated to the world market and can be considered to be competitive, but there is a suspicion of market power being exercised on the latter. Price relationships are therefore tested vertically between the price of frozen tuna paid by the canneries and the price of canned fish in both Italy and France. The two species show an opposite pattern in prices transmission along the value chain: price changes along the chain are far better transmitted for the “global” skipjack tuna than for the more “European” yellowfin tuna. The results are discussed, along with their implications for the fishing industry.

  18. Sample selection and spatial models of housing price indexes, and, A disequilibrium analysis of the U.S. gasoline market using panel data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Haixin

    This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part studies the sample selection and spatial models of housing price index using transaction data on detached single-family houses of two California metropolitan areas from 1990 through 2008. House prices are often spatially correlated due to shared amenities, or when the properties are viewed as close substitutes in a housing submarket. There have been many studies that address spatial correlation in the context of housing markets. However, none has used spatial models to construct housing price indexes at zip code level for the entire time period analyzed in this dissertation to the best of my knowledge. In this paper, I study a first-order autoregressive spatial model with four different weighing matrix schemes. Four sets of housing price indexes are constructed accordingly. Gatzlaff and Haurin (1997, 1998) study the sample selection problem in housing index by using Heckman's two-step method. This method, however, is generally inefficient and can cause multicollinearity problem. Also, it requires data on unsold houses in order to carry out the first-step probit regression. Maximum likelihood (ML) method can be used to estimate a truncated incidental model which allows one to correct for sample selection based on transaction data only. However, convergence problem is very prevalent in practice. In this paper I adopt Lewbel's (2007) sample selection correction method which does not require one to model or estimate the selection model, except for some very general assumptions. I then extend this method to correct for spatial correlation. In the second part, I analyze the U.S. gasoline market with a disequilibrium model that allows lagged-latent variables, endogenous prices, and panel data with fixed effects. Most existing studies (see the survey of Espey, 1998, Energy Economics) of the gasoline market assume equilibrium. In practice, however, prices do not always adjust fast enough to clear the market

  19. Can increases in the cigarette tax rate be linked to cigarette retail prices? Solving mysteries related to the cigarette pricing mechanism in China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Song; Zheng, Rong; Hu, Teh-wei

    2012-11-01

    To explain China's cigarette pricing mechanism and the role of the Chinese State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) on cigarette pricing and taxation. Published government tobacco tax documentation and statistics published by the Chinese STMA are used to analyse the interrelations among industry profits, taxes and retail price of cigarettes in China. The 2009 excise tax increase on cigarettes in China has not translated into higher retail prices because the Chinese STMA used its policy authority to ensure that retail cigarette prices did not change. The government tax increase is being collected at both the producer and wholesale levels. As a result, the 2009 excise tax increase in China has resulted in higher tax revenue for the government and lower profits for the tobacco industry, with no increase in the retail price of cigarettes for consumers. Numerous studies have found that taxation is one of the most effective policy instruments for tobacco control. However, these findings come from countries that have market economies where market forces determine prices and influence how cigarette taxes are passed to the consumers in retail prices. China's tobacco industry is not a market economy; therefore, non-market forces and the current Chinese tobacco monopoly system determine cigarette prices. The result is that tax increases do not necessarily get passed on to the retail price.

  20. Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market

    PubMed Central

    Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

    2013-01-01

    Aims Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Design Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999–2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. Setting UK. Participants UK smokers. Measurements Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. Findings TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and ‘ultra-low price’ (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Conclusions Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. PMID:23445255

  1. 41 CFR 51-5.5 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Prices. 51-5.5 Section 51... FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 5-CONTRACTING REQUIREMENTS § 51-5.5 Prices. (a) The prices for items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee...

  2. Relative Pricing of Publicly Traded U.S. Electric Utility Companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewczyn, Nicholas Stephen

    In the financial turmoil of 2008, U.S. firms reported debt-ratios that differed from the debt-ratios calculated from balance sheets. The problem is that investors bought common stock expecting initial investment return and lost money when companies delisted. The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine sample securities pricing with the application of synthetic assets and debt accrued. Addressed in the research questions was whether those securities were (a) underpriced compared with return-on-assets (ROA), (b) overpriced compared with ROA, (c) a debt-ratio higher than 60% and also overpriced, (d) underpriced with a synthetic asset added, or (e) related by relative pricing to variant pricing and market capitalization. The study's base theory was Pan's efficient market hypothesis (EMH) of security price prediction of market prices versus model prices. The data from the financial statements of 16 publicly traded U.S. electric utility companies were analyzed via correlations and multiple regression analyses to determine securities pricing and suitability. The findings from the analyses of the sample's variables of market price, book value, market-to-book, and study constructed variables from those variable data were statistically significant. The alternate hypotheses were accepted for all 5 research questions since the analytical operationalization of the hypothetical constructs led to significant relationships. Results suggest that the use of more pricing determinants in securities evaluation may lead to investors losing less money and earning the expected returns for a more efficient capital market, leading to a stronger economy and macroeconomic stability.

  3. 7 CFR 28.425 - Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.425 Section 28.425 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in...

  4. 7 CFR 28.422 - Strict Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Strict Middling Spotted Color. 28.422 Section 28.422 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Strict Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples...

  5. 7 CFR 28.425 - Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.425 Section 28.425 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in...

  6. 7 CFR 28.422 - Strict Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Strict Middling Spotted Color. 28.422 Section 28.422 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Strict Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples...

  7. 7 CFR 28.422 - Strict Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Strict Middling Spotted Color. 28.422 Section 28.422 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Strict Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples...

  8. 7 CFR 28.425 - Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.425 Section 28.425 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in...

  9. 7 CFR 28.425 - Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.425 Section 28.425 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in...

  10. 7 CFR 28.422 - Strict Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Strict Middling Spotted Color. 28.422 Section 28.422 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Strict Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples...

  11. 7 CFR 28.425 - Low Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Low Middling Spotted Color. 28.425 Section 28.425 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Low Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples in...

  12. 7 CFR 28.422 - Strict Middling Spotted Color.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Strict Middling Spotted Color. 28.422 Section 28.422 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards... Color. Strict Middling Spotted Color is color which is within the range represented by a set of samples...

  13. Fairness and dynamic pricing: comments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hogan, William W.

    2010-07-15

    In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

  14. Harem: Hardwood lumber remanufacturing program for maxmizing value based on size, grade and current market prices

    Treesearch

    C.J. Schwehm; P. Klinkhachorn; Charles W. McMillin; Henry A. Huber

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes an expert system computer program which will determine the optimum way to edge and trim a hardwood board so as to yield the highest dollar value based on the grade, size of each board, and current market prices. The program uses the Automated Hardwood Lumber Grading Program written by Klinkhachorn, et al. for determining the grade of each board...

  15. 33 CFR 211.75 - Price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Price. 211.75 Section 211.75... Under Jurisdiction of Department of the Army for Cottage Site Development and Use § 211.75 Price. The... for a price equal to the fair market value of the site at the time of the sale. ...

  16. Using time series structural characteristics to analyze grain prices in food insecure countries

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davenport, Frank; Funk, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Two components of food security monitoring are accurate forecasts of local grain prices and the ability to identify unusual price behavior. We evaluated a method that can both facilitate forecasts of cross-country grain price data and identify dissimilarities in price behavior across multiple markets. This method, characteristic based clustering (CBC), identifies similarities in multiple time series based on structural characteristics in the data. Here, we conducted a simulation experiment to determine if CBC can be used to improve the accuracy of maize price forecasts. We then compared forecast accuracies among clustered and non-clustered price series over a rolling time horizon. We found that the accuracy of forecasts on clusters of time series were equal to or worse than forecasts based on individual time series. However, in the following experiment we found that CBC was still useful for price analysis. We used the clusters to explore the similarity of price behavior among Kenyan maize markets. We found that price behavior in the isolated markets of Mandera and Marsabit has become increasingly dissimilar from markets in other Kenyan cities, and that these dissimilarities could not be explained solely by geographic distance. The structural isolation of Mandera and Marsabit that we find in this paper is supported by field studies on food security and market integration in Kenya. Our results suggest that a market with a unique price series (as measured by structural characteristics that differ from neighboring markets) may lack market integration and food security.

  17. On the integration of financial markets: How strong is the evidence from five international stock markets?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bentes, Sónia R.

    2015-07-01

    This paper examines the integration of financial markets using data from five international stock markets in the context of globalization. The theoretical basis of this study relies on the price theory and the Law of One Price, which was adjusted to the framework of financial markets. When price levels are nonstationary, cointegration and the error correction model constitute a powerful tool for the empirical examination of market integration. The error correction model provides a fully dynamic framework that allows to separating the long and the short run effects of the integration process. A dataset encompassing the daily stock price series of the PSI 20 (Portugal), IBEX 35 (Spain), FTSE 100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and SP 500 (US) indices from January 4th 1999 to September 19th 2014 is employed. The results highlight that these five stock markets are linked together by just one long-run relationship, although short-run movements are also present, which causes distinct deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship. Endogeneity prevails in the system as a whole. While market integration in the sense of the Law of One Price holds, pairwise full price transmission has limited evidence. The results therefore show that stock market price movements are highly nonlinear and complex.

  18. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003more » and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.« less

  19. Portfolio selection and asset pricing under a benchmark approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Platen, Eckhard

    2006-10-01

    The paper presents classical and new results on portfolio optimization, as well as the fair pricing concept for derivative pricing under the benchmark approach. The growth optimal portfolio is shown to be a central object in a market model. It links asset pricing and portfolio optimization. The paper argues that the market portfolio is a proxy of the growth optimal portfolio. By choosing the drift of the discounted growth optimal portfolio as parameter process, one obtains a realistic theoretical market dynamics.

  20. Construction of Discrete Time Shadow Price

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rogala, Tomasz, E-mail: rogalatp@gmail.com; Stettner, Lukasz, E-mail: stettner@impan.pl

    2015-12-15

    In the paper expected utility from consumption over finite time horizon for discrete time markets with bid and ask prices and strictly concave utility function is considered. The notion of weak shadow price, i.e. an illiquid price, depending on the portfolio, under which the model without bid and ask price is equivalent to the model with bid and ask price is introduced. Existence and the form of weak shadow price is shown. Using weak shadow price usual (called in the paper strong) shadow price is then constructed.

  1. High-Price And Low-Price Physician Practices Do Not Differ Significantly On Care Quality Or Efficiency.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Eric T; Mehrotra, Ateev; McWilliams, J Michael

    2017-05-01

    Consolidation of physician practices has intensified concerns that providers with greater market power may be able to charge higher prices without having to deliver better care, compared to providers with less market power. Providers have argued that higher prices cover the costs of delivering higher-quality care. We examined the relationship between physician practice prices for outpatient services and practices' quality and efficiency of care. Using commercial claims data, we classified practices as being high- or low-price. We used national data from the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems survey and linked claims for Medicare beneficiaries to compare high- and low-price practices in the same geographic area in terms of care quality, utilization, and spending. Compared with low-price practices, high-price practices were much larger and received 36 percent higher prices. Patients of high-price practices reported significantly higher scores on some measures of care coordination and management but did not differ meaningfully in their overall care ratings, other domains of patient experiences (including physician ratings and access to care), receipt of preventive services, acute care use, or total Medicare spending. This suggests an overall weak relationship between practice prices and the quality and efficiency of care and calls into question claims that high-price providers deliver substantially higher-value care. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  2. A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Li; Wan, Jieqiu

    2011-10-01

    In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547-1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243-250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

  3. Market forces influence helping behaviour in cooperatively breeding paper wasps

    PubMed Central

    Grinsted, Lena; Field, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Biological market theory is potentially useful for understanding helping behaviour in animal societies. It predicts that competition for trading partners will affect the value of commodities exchanged. It has gained empirical support in cooperative breeders, where subordinates help dominant breeders in exchange for group membership, but so far without considering one crucial aspect: outside options. We find support for a biological market in paper wasps, Polistes dominula. We first show that females have a choice of cooperative partners. Second, by manipulating entire subpopulations in the field, we increase the supply of outside options for subordinates, freeing up suitable nesting spots and providing additional nesting partners. We predicted that by intensifying competition for help, our manipulation would force dominants to accept a lower price for group membership. As expected, subordinates reduce their foraging effort following our treatments. We conclude that to accurately predict the amount of help provided, social units cannot be viewed in isolation: the surrounding market must also be considered. PMID:28117836

  4. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better? Comment on "Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A Content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters".

    PubMed

    Doran, Evan

    2016-02-21

    Hyosun Kim's report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

  5. Econophysics: Master curve for price-impact function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lillo, Fabrizio; Farmer, J. Doyne; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2003-01-01

    The price reaction to a single transaction depends on transaction volume, the identity of the stock, and possibly many other factors. Here we show that, by taking into account the differences in liquidity for stocks of different size classes of market capitalization, we can rescale both the average price shift and the transaction volume to obtain a uniform price-impact curve for all size classes of firm for four different years (1995-98). This single-curve collapse of the price-impact function suggests that fluctuations from the supply-and-demand equilibrium for many financial assets, differing in economic sectors of activity and market capitalization, are governed by the same statistical rule.

  6. Price Analysis on Commercial Item Purchases Within the Department of Defense

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-10-02

    Department of Defense Introduction Background This research builds upon the work conducted in collaboration with the authors’ thesis students ...market research and price analysis methods . Most contract pricing of acquisitions was conducted using cost analysis before these reforms were added to...analysis methods are being used? b) Do market research reports refer to market information that improves the buyers’ understanding of pricing in the

  7. The Impact of Price-cap Regulations on Exit by Generic Pharmaceutical Firms.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Guh, Daphne; Sun, Huiying; Marra, Carlo A; Lynd, Larry D; Anis, Aslam H

    2016-09-01

    In 1998, the Province of Ontario in Canada adopted price-cap "70/90" regulations whereby the first generic entrant was required to be priced at ≤70% of the associated brand-name product and subsequent generics were priced at ≤90% of the first generic price. The price-caps were further lowered to 50% in 2006 and 25% in 2010. This study assessed the impact of such price-cap regulations on exit by generic drug firms. Formulary (2003-2012) listings of prescription drugs covered under the Ontario Drug Benefit program were used. The formulary tracks the "status" (on formulary, discontinued by manufacturer, and delisted for other reasons) for each drug. Markets were defined based on unique active ingredient and form within Ontario. Firm exit occurred when a manufacturer discontinued all its generic drugs within a market. The exit rate was defined as the number of generic firm-market exits divided by total generic firm-market follow-up years. Poisson regression was used to compare the exit rates during the 3 policy periods ("25," "50," and "70/90"). A total of 1126 generic manufacturers paired with 290 markets were identified. The exit rate ratio during the 25% price-cap period compared with the 70%/90% period was 2.42 (95% confidence interval, 1.56-3.77). A small manufacturer or a manufacturer in a market with ≥3 competitors or in an older market was more likely to exit. Lowering the price-cap level is associated with a higher incidence of generic firm exit from markets. Continuously reducing price-caps may have the unintended consequence of forcing generic firms to exit.

  8. Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron

    This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

  9. Wholesale electricity market design with increasing levels of renewable generation: Revenue sufficiency and long-term reliability

    DOE PAGES

    Milligan, Michael; Frew, Bethany A.; Bloom, Aaron; ...

    2016-03-22

    This paper discusses challenges that relate to assessing and properly incentivizing the resources necessary to ensure a reliable electricity system with growing penetrations of variable generation (VG). The output of VG (primarily wind and solar generation) varies over time and cannot be predicted precisely. Therefore, the energy from VG is not always guaranteed to be available at times when it is most needed. This means that its contribution towards resource adequacy can be significantly less than the contribution from traditional resources. Variable renewable resources also have near-zero variable costs, and with production-based subsidies they may even have negative offer costs.more » Because variable costs drive the spot price of energy, this can lead to reduced prices, sales, and therefore revenue for all resources within the energy market. The characteristics of VG can also result in increased price volatility as well as the need for more flexibility in the resource fleet in order to maintain system reliability. Furthermore, we explore both traditional and evolving electricity market designs in the United States that aim to ensure resource adequacy and sufficient revenues to recover costs when those resources are needed for long-term reliability. We also investigate how reliability needs may be evolving and discuss how VG may affect future electricity market designs.« less

  10. 7 CFR 1006.61 - Computation of uniform prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., the market administrator shall compute a uniform butterfat price, a uniform skim milk price, and a... section. (b) Uniform skim milk price. The uniform skim milk price per hundredweight, rounded to the... paragraph (a) of this section times 3.5 pounds of butterfat; and (2) Multiply the uniform skim milk price...

  11. 7 CFR 1007.61 - Computation of uniform prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., the market administrator shall compute a uniform butterfat price, a uniform skim milk price, and a... section. (b) Uniform skim milk price. The uniform skim milk price per hundredweight, rounded to the... paragraph (a) of this section times 3.5 pounds of butterfat; and (2) Multiply the uniform skim milk price...

  12. 7 CFR 1131.61 - Computation of uniform prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., the market administrator shall compute a uniform butterfat price, a uniform skim milk price, and a... section. (b) Uniform skim milk price. The uniform skim milk price per hundredweight, rounded to the... paragraph (a) of this section times 3.5 pounds of butterfat; and (2) Multiply the uniform skim milk price...

  13. Review of alternative measures of softwood sawtimber prices in the United States

    Treesearch

    Henry Spelter

    2005-01-01

    This study compares prices from various timber market reports and an estimate of timber value derived from product-selling prices and manufacturing costs. In the South, two primary sources of timber price information are Forest2Market (F2M) and Timber Mart-South (TMS). Comparisons showed that F2M prices are generally higher than TMS prices for both stumpage and...

  14. Effects of regulation on drug launch and pricing in interdependent markets.

    PubMed

    Danzon, Patricia M; Epstein, Andrew J

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the effect of price regulation and competition on launch timing and pricing of new drugs. Our data cover launch experience in 15 countries from 1992 to 2003 for drugs in 12 major therapeutic classes. We estimate a two-equation model of launch hazard and launch price of new drugs. We find that launch timing and prices of new drugs are related to a country's average prices of established products in a class. Thus to the extent that price regulation reduces price levels, such regulation directly contributes to launch delay in the regulating country. Regulation by external referencing, whereby high-price countries reference low-price countries, also has indirect or spillover effects, contributing to launch delay and higher launch prices in low-price referenced countries. Referencing policies adopted in high-price countries indirectly impose welfare loss on low-price countries. These findings have implications for US proposals to constrain pharmaceutical prices through external referencing and drug importation.

  15. An empirical analysis of the multimarket contact theory in pharmaceutical markets.

    PubMed

    Coronado, Javier; Jiménez-Martín, Sergi; Marín, Pedro L

    2014-07-01

    Multimarket contact theory predicts that firms will optimally reduce prices in markets where collusive prices are sustainable and allocate the slack of the corresponding incentive compatibility to increase prices in markets where collusion is not sustainable. Binding price caps in collusive markets will have different effects over the multimarket contact mechanism depending on the severity of the cap. Setting a price cap close to the unregulated case will increase the size of the redistribution of market power whereas stronger regulation will even reduce prices in unregulated markets. Therefore, price regulations aiming at capping prices in a specific market will also affect markets that are not subject to specific mandatory price regulations. We find evidence of the theory predictions using information for nine OECD countries for pharmaceutical markets. Unregulated US markets are shown to respond to the redistribution effect; Canadian markets, known to be subject to soft price regulations, with respect to the former, are shown to be consistent with a stronger redistribution effect. EU markets and Japan are either consistent with the effect of a medium regulation or strong regulation. In this last case multimarket contact cannot explain prices, and these are expected to be lower compared to the unregulated benchmark.

  16. Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks

    PubMed Central

    van der Gronde, Toon; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A.

    2017-01-01

    Context Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. Method A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Findings Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. Conclusion A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines. PMID:28813502

  17. Addressing the challenge of high-priced prescription drugs in the era of precision medicine: A systematic review of drug life cycles, therapeutic drug markets and regulatory frameworks.

    PubMed

    Gronde, Toon van der; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Pieters, Toine

    2017-01-01

    Recent public outcry has highlighted the rising cost of prescription drugs worldwide, which in several disease areas outpaces other health care expenditures and results in a suboptimal global availability of essential medicines. A systematic review of Pubmed, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Guardian was performed to identify articles related to the pricing of medicines. Changes in drug life cycles have dramatically affected patent medicine markets, which have long been considered a self-evident and self-sustainable source of income for highly profitable drug companies. Market failure in combination with high merger and acquisition activity in the sector have allowed price increases for even off-patent drugs. With market interventions and the introduction of QALY measures in health care, governments have tried to influence drug prices, but often encounter unintended consequences. Patent reform legislation, reference pricing, outcome-based pricing and incentivizing physicians and pharmacists to prescribe low-cost drugs are among the most promising short-term policy options. Due to the lack of systematic research on the effectiveness of policy measures, an increasing number of ad hoc decisions have been made with counterproductive effects on the availability of essential drugs. Future challenges demand new policies, for which recommendations are offered. A fertile ground for high-priced drugs has been created by changes in drug life-cycle dynamics, the unintended effects of patent legislation, government policy measures and orphan drug programs. There is an urgent need for regulatory reform to curtail prices and safeguard equitable access to innovative medicines.

  18. 7 CFR 1005.61 - Computation of uniform prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... month, the market administrator shall compute a uniform butterfat price, a uniform skim milk price, and...) and (a)(2) of this section. (b) Uniform skim milk price. The uniform skim milk price per hundredweight... paragraph (a) of this section times 3.5 pounds of butterfat; and (2) Multiply the uniform skim milk price...

  19. Impact of a targeted direct marketing price promotion intervention (Buywell) on food-purchasing behaviour by low income consumers: a randomised controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Stead, M; MacKintosh, A M; Findlay, A; Sparks, L; Anderson, A S; Barton, K; Eadie, D

    2017-08-01

    Price promotions are a promising intervention for encouraging healthier food purchasing. We aimed to assess the impact of a targeted direct marketing price promotion combined with healthy eating advice and recipe suggestions on the purchase of selected healthier foods by low income consumers. We conducted a randomised controlled trial (n = 53 367) of a direct marketing price promotion (Buywell) combined with healthy eating advice and recipe suggestions for low income consumers identified as 'less healthy' shoppers. Impact was assessed using electronic point of sale data for UK low income shoppers before, during and after the promotion. The proportion of customers buying promoted products in the intervention month increased by between 1.4% and 2.8% for four of the five products. There was significantly higher uptake in the promotion month (P < 0.001) for the intervention group than would have been expected on the basis of average uptake in the other months. When product switching was examined for semi-skimmed/skimmed milk, a modest increase (1%) was found in the intervention month of customers switching from full-fat to low-fat milk. This represented 8% of customers who previously bought only full-fat milk. The effects were generally not sustained after the promotion period. Short-term direct marketing price promotions combined with healthy eating advice and recipe suggestions targeted at low income consumers are feasible and can have a modest impact on short-term food-purchasing behaviour, although further approaches are needed to help sustain these changes. © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  20. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Treesearch

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...