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Sample records for spot market prices

  1. May market review. [Spot market prices for uranium (1993)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-06-01

    Seven uranium transactions totalling nearly three million pounds equivalent U3O8 were reported during May, but only two, totalling less than 200 thousand pounds equivalent U3O8, involved concentrates. As no discretionary buying occurred during the month, and as near-term supply and demand were in relative balance, prices were steady, while both buyers and sellers appeared to be awaiting some new market development to signal the direction of future spot-market prices. The May 31, 1993, Exchange Value and the Restricted American market Penalty (RAMP) for concentrates were both unchanged at $7.10, and $2.95 per pound U3O8, respectively. NUEXCO's judgement was that transactions for significant quantities of uranium concentrates that were both deliverable in and intended for consumption in the USA could have been concluded on May 31 at $10.05 per pound U3O8. Two near-term concentrate transactions were reported in which one US utility purchased less than 200 thousand pounds equivalent U3O8 from two separate sellers. These sales occurred at price levels at or near the May 31 Exchange Value plus RAMP. No long-term uranium transactions were reported during May. Consequently, the UF6 Value decreased $0.20 to $24.30 per kgU as UF6, reflecting some weakening of the UF6 market outside the USA.

  2. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October`s total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels.

  3. March market review. [Spot market prices for uranium (1993)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-04-01

    The spot market price for uranium in unrestricted markets weakened further during March, and at month end, the NUEXCO Exchange Value had fallen $0.15, to $7.45 per pound U3O8. The Restricted American Market Penalty (RAMP) for concentrates increased $0.15, to $2.55 per pound U3O8. Ample UF6 supplies and limited demand led to a $0.50 decrease in the UF6 Value, to $25.00 per kgU as UF6, while the RAMP for UF6 increased $0.75, to $5.25 per kgU. Nine near-term uranium transactions were reported, totalling almost 3.3 million pounds equivalent U3O8. This is the largest monthly spot market volume since October 1992, and is double the volume reported in January and February. The March 31 Conversion Value was $4.25 per kgU as UF6. Beginning with the March 31 Value, NUEXCO now reports its Conversion Value in US dollars per kilogram of uranium (US$/kgU), reflecting current industry practice. The March loan market was inactive with no transactions reported. The Loan Rate remained unchanged at 3.0 percent per annum. Low demand and increased competition among sellers led to a one-dollar decrease in the SWU Value, to $65 per SWU, and the RAMP for SWU declined one dollar, to $9 per SWU.

  4. April market review. [Spot market prices for uranium (1993)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The spot market price for uranium outside the USA weakened further during April, and at month end, the NUEXCO Exchange Value had fallen $0.35, to $7.10 per pound U3O8. This is the lowest Exchange Value observed in nearly twenty years, comparable to Values recorded during the low price levels of the early 1970s. The Restricted American Market Penalty (RAMP) for concentrates increased $0.40, to $2.95 per pound U3O8. Transactions for significant quantities of uranium concentrates that are both deliverable in and intended for consumption in the USA could have been concluded on April 30 at $10.05 per pound U3O8, up $0.05 from the sum of corresponding March Values. Four near-term concentrates transactions were reported, totalling nearly 1.5 million pounds equivalent U3O8. One long-term sale was reported. The UF6 Value also declined, as increased competition among sellers led to a $0.50 decrease, to $24.50 per kgU as UF6. However, the RAMP for UF6 increased $0.65, to $5.90 per kgU as UF6, reflecting an effective US market level of $30.40 per kgU. Two near term transactions were reported totalling approximately 1.1 million pounds equivalent U3O8. In total, eight uranium transactions totalling 28 million pounds equivalent U3O8 were reported, which is about average for April market activity.

  5. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  6. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  7. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  8. Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Haesun

    2005-12-01

    Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through six long-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear

  9. Trading on the index: Spot markets and price spreads in the Western interconnection

    SciTech Connect

    McCullough, R.

    1996-10-01

    For the past 20 years, the Western Systems Coordinating Council (WSCC) has built a reputation for innovation in electric markets. Today, with members in the United States, Canada, and Mexico that serve customers from the Pacific Ocean to the Plains states, and with over 140,000 megawatts (Mw) of generation and transmission stretched across three countries, the WSCC continues to lead change in power markets. Transparent pricing has become a reality throughout the region. Last year the Pacific Northwest subregion of the WSSC counted eight large (50 megawatts or more) industrial contracts with spot pricing. Puget Sound Power and Light recently proposed to shift all of its major customers to spot pricing when its current merger proceeding closes. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) offers future trading at Palo Verde and the California/Oregon border (COB). Alberta`s new power pool adds a third market-price indicator. Soon we may see spot pricing for bulk power throughout the Western Power Exchange (WEPEX). This growing emphasis on spot pricing turns attention to pricing mechanics.

  10. A bid solicitation and selection method for developing a competitive spot priced electric market

    SciTech Connect

    Ancona, J.J.

    1997-05-01

    The electric utility industry is in the beginning throes of a transformation from a cost-based regulated structure to a more market based less regulated system. Traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch methodologies can continue to provide reliable least-cost solutions, providing they are modified to accommodate a larger sphere of market participants. This paper offers a method for an entity such as an Independent System Operator (ISO) to solicit and evaluate bids for developing a spot priced electric market by replicating existing utility practices that are effective and efficient, while creating an open and equitable competitive marketplace for electricity.

  11. Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications ofPrice-Responsive Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-08-01

    Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulatedelectricity industries share one common feature: the absence of anysignificant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, most electricity consumers stillpay an average cost based regulated retail tariff held over from the eraof vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are oftenforced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in openmarkets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who aresometimes additionally forbidden by regulators from signing hedgingcontracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time(or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price ofelectricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumptionaccordingly. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic,which together with the non storability of electricity that requiresmarket clearing over very short time steps spawn many other problemsassociated with electricity markets, such as exercise of market power andprice volatility. Indeed, electricity generation resources can bestretched to the point where system adequacy is threatened. Economictheory suggests that even modest price responsiveness can relieve thestress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To quantify thiseffect, actual generator bid data from the New York control area is usedto construct supply stacks and intersect them with demand curves ofvarious slopes to approximate the effect of different levels of demandresponse. The potential impact of real-time pricing (RTP) on theequilibrium spot price and quantity is then estimated. These resultsindicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a moreprice-responsive demand providing policymakers with a measure of howprices can be potentially reduced and consumption maintained within thecapability of generation assets.

  12. Assessment of Prices of Natural Gas Futures Contracts As A Predictor of Realized Spot Prices, An

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    This article compares realized Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas during the three most recent winters with futures prices as they evolve from April through the following February, when trading for the March contract ends.

  13. Long-term market brisk, spot remains sluggish

    SciTech Connect

    1996-05-01

    Spot market activity totaled almost 54,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range had a slight increase from a high last month of $15.60/lb U3O8 to a hgih this month of $16.00/lb U3O8. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range remained at last month`s prices for the first time in recent weeks. Spot prices for conversion and SWU also held steady at their March levels.

  14. Spot foreign exchange market and time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroni, F.; Serva, M.

    2003-08-01

    We investigate high frequency price dynamics in foreign exchange market using data from Reuters information system (the dataset has been provided to us by Olsen and Associates). In our analysis we show that a naïve approach to the definition of price (for example using the spot mid price) may lead to wrong conclusions on price behavior as for example the presence of short term correlations for returns. For this purpose we introduce an algorithm which only uses the non arbitrage principle to estimate real prices from the spot ones. The new definition leads to returns which are not affected by spurious correlations. Furthermore, any apparent information (defined by using Shannon entropy) contained in the data disappears.

  15. Price convergence across natural gas fields and city markets

    SciTech Connect

    Walls, W.D.

    1994-12-31

    This research reports the results of cointegration tests between natural gas spot prices at various production fields, pipeline hubs, and city markets. Cointegration between prices is evidence that spatial arbitrage is enforcing the law of one price across market locations. The results show that prices at certain city markets, Chicago and to a lesser extent California, are cointegrated with prices in field markets. However, the prices at most other locations do not move in step with gas prices in the field markets. Customer access to pipeline transportation, or competitive bypass, may explain why prices at some city markets are more responsive to production field prices than others. 15 refs., 2 tabs.

  16. Fast Market Splitting Matching Method for Spot Electric Power Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawa, Toshiyuki; Nakata, Yuji; Tsurugai, Mitsuo; Sugiyama, Shigenari

    We have developed a fast, innovative matching method for the spot power market, considering network constraints. In this method, buy and sell order bids are respectively divided into the aggregated volume of several band prices. Then the aggregated volume and the center of each band price are used to calculate a band clearing price, which contains the real clearing price. The dividing and calculating process is iterated until the band price is less than the tick size of the bidding price. We applied this method to a real problem in the Japanese power market with 9 areas, 10 area-connecting lines, and 9000 orders (volume/price pairs). Our simulation results show that the new method is ten times faster than conventional linear programming. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the developed method.

  17. Prices dip on slow demand. [Uranium market overview - December 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-01-01

    The Restricted Uranium Spot Market Price Range slipped to $9.90-$10.35, mostly due to lackluster demand. Only three transactions took place during the month. Two of the purchases, accounting for 98% of the month's volume, were by European utilities; the other was made by a US utility. One of the European purchases was made in the unrestricted market, but since it included a host of fuel cycle services, the U3O8 price could not be determined. Hence, NUKEM's Unrestricted Uranium Spot Market Price Range stays the same, at $7.90-$8.00. The other European deal, concluded in the restricted market, represents the low end of the restricted market price range. The US deal was based on bids that were made at the beginning of November and therefore does not reflect market conditions in December. Looking ahead, we see four utilities ready to enter the market for nearly 1 million lbs U3O8 equivalent.

  18. Pricing and Marketing Online Information Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Webber, Sheila Anne Elizabeth

    1998-01-01

    Discusses the pricing of online information in the broader context of marketing. Highlights include changes in the marketing context and issues of value relating to price; other reviews of online pricing; trends affecting price, including public sector involvement and the Internet; promotional pricing; price discrimination; and price aggregation…

  19. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  20. Microstructure and Execution Strategies in the Global Spot FX Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Anatoly B.

    Modern global inter-bank spot foreign exchange is essentially a limit-order market. Execution strategies in such a market may differ from those in markets that permit market orders. Here we describe microstructure and dynamics of the EBS market (EBS being an ICAP company is the leading institutional spot FX electronic brokerage). In order to illustrate specifics of the limit-order market, we discuss two problems. First, we describe our simulations of maker loss in case when the EUR/USD maker order is pegged to the market best price. We show that the expected maker loss is lower than the typical bid/offer spread. Second, we discuss the problem of optimal slicing of large orders for minimizing execution costs. We start with analysis of the expected execution times for the EUR/USD orders submitted at varying market depth. Then we introduce a loss function that accounts for the market volatility risk and the order's P/L in respect to the market best price. This loss function can be optimized for given risk aversion. Finally, we apply this approach to slicing large limit orders.

  1. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  2. Optimum electric utility spot price determinations for small power producing facilities operating under PURPA provisions

    SciTech Connect

    Ghoudjehbaklou, H. ); Puttgen, H.B. )

    1988-09-01

    The present paper outlines an optimum spot price determination procedure in the general context of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, PURPA, provisions. PURPA stipulates that local utilities must offer to purchase all available excess electric energy from Qualifying Facilities, QF, at fair market prices. As a direct consequence of these PURPA regulations, a growing number of owners are installing power producing facilities and optimize their operational schedules to minimize their utility related costs or, in some cases, actually maximize their revenues from energy sales to the local utility. In turn, the utility will strive to use spot prices which maximize its revenues from any given Small Power Producing Facility, SPPF, schedule while respecting the general regulatory and contractual framework. The proposed optimum spot price determination procedure fully models the SPPF operation, it enforces the contractual and regulatory restrictions, and it ensures the uniqueness of the optimum SPPF schedule.

  3. Optimum electric utility spot price determinations for small power producing facilities operating under PURPA provisions

    SciTech Connect

    Ghoudjehbaklou, H.; Puttgen, H.B.

    1988-01-01

    This paper outlines an optimum spot price determination procedure in the general context of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act, PURPA, provisions. PURPA stipulates that local utilities must offer to purchase all available excess electric energy from Qualifying Facilities, QF, at fair market prices. As a direct consequence of these PURPA regulations, a growing number of owners are installing power producing facilities and optimize their operational schedules to minimize their utility related costs or, in some cases, actually maximize their revenues from energy sales to the local utility. In turn, the utility strives to use spot prices which maximize its revenues from any given Small Power Producing Facility, SPPF, a schedule while respecting the general regulatory and contractual framework. the proposed optimum spot price determination procedure fully models the SPPF operation, it enforces the contractual and regulatory restrictions, and it ensures the uniqueness of the optimum SPPF schedule.

  4. Producers give prices a boost. [Uranium market overview

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-09-01

    Uranium producers came alive in August, helping spot prices crack the $8.00 barrier for the first time since March. The upper end of NUKEM's price range actually finished the month at $8.20. Scrambling to fulfill their long-term delivery contracts, producers dominate the market. In the span of three weeks, five producers came out for 2 million lbs U3O8, ultimately buying nearly 1.5 million lbs. One producer accounted for over half this volume. The major factor behind rising prices was that producers required specific origins to meet contract obligations. Buyers willing to accept open origins created the lower end of NUKEM's price range.

  5. Prices dip, activity increases in unrestricted uranium market. [Uranium market overview

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    April's activity in the restricted uranium market fluctuated in the same range as that observed in March. At the same time, NUKEM detects a weakening of prices in the unrestricted market to $7.45-$7.65. Unrestricted buyers seem to have detected lower prices as well; much of the new demand noted this month emerged in the unrestricted segment of the market. With this issue, NUKEM inaugurates a new market statistic. To better follow developments in the conversion market, we will report a spot price range for conversion services. This price measure will be derived in a manner analogous to NUKEM's other spot market price ranges. We will continue to publish the current NUKEM price range for new contracts for a few months. If you wish to retain the old conversion contract price range in future editions, please contact our US office. Four deals for near term delivery occurred in the uranium market in April, resulting in spot market transaction volume of 2.5 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. In the first week, a US non-utility purchased a small quantity of enriched uranium product from an intermediary in a spot transaction representing about 75,000 lbs U3O8. The second week saw the stealthy purchase of Portland General Electric's inventory of natural and enriched uranium. The buyer of PGE's 1.1 million lbs U3O8 equivalent has achieved an unusual degree of anonymity. Also during the second week, a US utility bought a small quantity of enriched uranium containing less than 25,000 lbs natural U3O8 equivalent.

  6. Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

    The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

  7. Crude oil price dynamics: A study on effects of market expectation and strategic supply on price movements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xin

    Recent years have seen dramatic fluctuations in crude oil prices. This dissertation attempts to better understand price behavior. The first chapter studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence behavior can be explained by changes in the relative volatility of the underlying components. Fitting the model to weekly data on WTI prices, the volatility of the persistent shocks increased substantially relative to other shocks. In addition, the risk premiums in futures prices have changed their signs and become more volatile. The estimated net marginal convenience yield using the model also shows changes in its behavior. These observations suggest that a dramatic fundamental change occurred in the period from 2002 to 2004 in the dynamics of the crude oil market. The second chapter explores the short-run price-inventory dynamics in the presence of different shocks. Classical competitive storage model states that inventory decision considers both current and future market condition, and thus interacts with spot and expected future spot prices. We study competitive storage holding in an equilibrium framework, focusing on the dynamic response of price and inventory to different shocks. We show that news shock generates response profile different from traditional contemporaneous shocks in price and inventory. The model is applied to world crude oil market, where the market expectation is estimated to experience a sharp change in early 2000s, together with a persisting constrained supply relative to demand. The expectation change has limited effect on crude oil spot price though. The world oil market structure has been studied extensively but no

  8. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by...

  9. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by bale volume the prices or values of base... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or traded... settlement of futures contracts, the Cotton Division will on each business day determine and quote by...

  10. Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Koichiro

    This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do

  11. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications ofprice-elastic demand

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris

    2004-07-08

    Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulated electricity industries share one common feature: the absence of any significant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, electricity industries continue to charge most consumers an average cost based on regulated retail tariff from the era of vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are forced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in open markets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who are sometimes forbidden by regulators from signing hedging contracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time (or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price of electricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumption in response to price signals. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic, and electricity generation resources can be stretched to the point where system stability is threatened. This, then, facilitates many other problems associated with electricity markets, such as market power and price volatility. Indeed, economic theory suggests that even modestly price-responsive demand can remove the stress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To test this theory, we use actual generator bid data from the New York control area to construct supply stacks, and intersect them with demand curves of various slopes to approximate different levels of demand elasticity. We then estimate the potential impact of real-time pricing on the equilibrium spot price and quantity. These results indicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a more price-elastic demand. Such analysis can provide policymakers with a measure of how effective price-elastic demand can potentially reduce prices and maintain consumption within the capability of generation resources.

  12. The volatility of stock market prices.

    PubMed

    Shiller, R J

    1987-01-01

    If the volatility of stock market prices is to be understood in terms of the efficient markets hypothesis, then there should be evidence that true investment value changes through time sufficiently to justify the price changes. Three indicators of change in true investment value of the aggregate stock market in the United States from 1871 to 1986 are considered: changes in dividends, in real interest rates, and in a direct measure of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution. Although there are some ambiguities in interpreting the evidence, dividend changes appear to contribute very little toward justifying the observed historical volatility of stock prices. The other indicators contribute some, but still most of the volatility of stock market prices appears unexplained. PMID:17769311

  13. Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

  14. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  15. Price dynamics in political prediction markets.

    PubMed

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A; Amaral, Luís A Nunes

    2009-01-20

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  16. Prices dip along with volume. [Uranium market overview - July 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The summer doldrums took hold in July, with only eight deals taking place, four on the spot concentrates market, two in conversion and two in enrichment. Spot concentrates volume dropped by 23% to nearly 1.2 million lbs U308 equivalent, resulting in slight declines in NUKEM's restricted and unrestricted price ranges. There were four deals on the spot market in July, totaling nearly 1.2 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. One of the buyers, a US utility, bought low-enriched uranium containing up to 440,000 lbs equivalent. Two of the buyers, a European and a US utility, purchased nearly 580,000 lbs of concentrates, with most going to the European utility. And another US utility bought UF6 containing 149,000 lbs equivalent. As for new demand, four buyers - including the European and US utilities that bought concentrates, as well as an East European utility and a non-US producer - entered the market during the month seeking 1.4 million lbs equivalent. The latter two buyers, along with another European utility and another US utility, are now weighing offers for more than 2.2 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. Looking ahead, we anticipate that as many as 17 buyers may enter the market for nearly 5 million lbs equivalent.

  17. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Bona fide spot markets. 27.93 Section 27.93 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON CLASSIFICATION UNDER COTTON...

  18. Decomposing intraday dependence in currency markets: evidence from the AUD/USD spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Ellis, Craig A.; Hogan, Warren P.

    2005-07-01

    The local Hurst exponent, a measure employed to detect the presence of dependence in a time series, may also be used to investigate the source of intraday variation observed in the returns in foreign exchange markets. Given that changes in the local Hurst exponent may be due to either a time-varying range, or standard deviation, or both of these simultaneously, values for the range, standard deviation and local Hurst exponent are recorded and analyzed separately. To illustrate this approach, a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar provides evidence of the returns distribution across the 24-hour trading ‘day’, with time-varying dependence and volatility clearly aligning with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

  19. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  20. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a...

  1. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a...

  2. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16 Agriculture... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price. Net market price means the sales price, or other value, per volumetric unit, received by a...

  3. How price linkage ties world oil markets

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, A.J.

    1989-01-23

    Since 1973, the oil industry has seen control of the price mechanism move from a small number of integrated international oil companies to OPEC, and then from OPEC to the free market. The reasons for this are well documented. Growth in petroleum demand through the early seventies put a handful of Middle East producers in a short run oligopolistic position. This allowed them to wrest the pricing initiative from the oil companies. Virtually overnight, the world moved from an era of stable--if contrived--tax reference prices to one of official government sales prices dictated by a producers' cartel. The resulting massive jump in real prices proved unsustainable. Demand for oil declined because of conservation and substitution. Also, supply, from noncartel members increased dramatically.

  4. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  5. Crowdsourcing Black Market Prices For Prescription Opioids

    PubMed Central

    Freifeld, Clark; Brownstein, John S; Menone, Christopher Mark; Surratt, Hilary L; Poppish, Luke; Green, Jody L; Lavonas, Eric J; Dart, Richard C

    2013-01-01

    Background Prescription opioid diversion and abuse are major public health issues in the United States and internationally. Street prices of diverted prescription opioids can provide an indicator of drug availability, demand, and abuse potential, but these data can be difficult to collect. Crowdsourcing is a rapid and cost-effective way to gather information about sales transactions. We sought to determine whether crowdsourcing can provide accurate measurements of the street price of diverted prescription opioid medications. Objective To assess the possibility of crowdsourcing black market drug price data by cross-validation with law enforcement officer reports. Methods Using a crowdsourcing research website (StreetRx), we solicited data about the price that site visitors paid for diverted prescription opioid analgesics during the first half of 2012. These results were compared with a survey of law enforcement officers in the Researched Abuse, Diversion, and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS) System, and actual transaction prices on a “dark Internet” marketplace (Silk Road). Geometric means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for comparing prices per milligram of drug in US dollars. In a secondary analysis, we compared prices per milligram of morphine equivalent using standard equianalgesic dosing conversions. Results A total of 954 price reports were obtained from crowdsourcing, 737 from law enforcement, and 147 from the online marketplace. Correlations between the 3 data sources were highly linear, with Spearman rho of 0.93 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and law enforcement, and 0.98 (P<.001) between crowdsourced and online marketplace. On StreetRx, the mean prices per milligram were US$3.29 hydromorphone, US$2.13 buprenorphine, US$1.57 oxymorphone, US$0.97 oxycodone, US$0.96 methadone, US$0.81 hydrocodone, US$0.52 morphine, and US$0.05 tramadol. The only significant difference between data sources was morphine, with a Drug Diversion price of US

  6. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in each designated spot market by the Cotton Division, Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, as follows... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or...

  7. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in each designated spot market by the Cotton Division, Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, as follows... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or...

  8. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in each designated spot market by the Cotton Division, Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, as follows... determined and quoted by bale volume in each such spot market for those qualities normally produced or...

  9. Cross-correlations between price and volume in Chinese gold markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Jiang, Wei; Ma, Guofeng

    2016-06-01

    We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) method to investigate the cross-correlation behaviors between price and volume in Chinese gold spot and futures markets. Qualitatively, we find that the price and volume series are significantly cross-correlated using the cross-correlation test statistics Qcc(m) and the ρDCCA coefficients. Quantitatively, by employing the MF-DCCA analysis, we find that there is a power-law cross-correlation and significant multifractal features between price and volume in gold spot and futures markets. Furthermore, by comparing the multifractality of the original series to the shuffled and surrogated series, we find that, for the gold spot market, the main contribution of multifractality is fat-tail distribution; for the gold futures market, both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions play important roles in the contribution of multifractality. Finally, by employing the method of rolling windows, we undertake further investigation into the time-varying features of the cross-correlations between price and volume. We find that for both spot and futures markets, the cross-correlations are anti-persistent in general. In the short term, the cross-correlation shows obvious fluctuations due to exogenous shocks while, in the long term, the relationship tends to be at a metastable level due to the dynamic mechanism.

  10. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List....

  11. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List....

  12. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator,...

  13. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Fair market price. 51-2... FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on...

  14. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator,...

  15. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator,...

  16. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Fair market price. 51-2... FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on...

  17. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator,...

  18. 7 CFR 760.640 - National average market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false National average market price. 760.640 Section 760.640....640 National average market price. (a) The Deputy Administrator will establish the National Average Market Price (NAMP) using the best sources available, as determined by the Deputy Administrator,...

  19. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2012-07-01 2009-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List....

  20. Marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies.

    PubMed

    Levaggi, Rosella; Orizio, Grazia; Domenighini, Serena; Bressanelli, Maura; Schulz, Peter J; Zani, Claudia; Caimi, Luigi; Gelatti, Umberto

    2009-10-01

    Internet and e-commerce have profoundly changed society, the economy, and the world of health care. The web offers opportunities to improve health, but it may also represent a big health hazard since it is a basically unregulated market with very low consumer protection. In this paper we analyze marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies (OPs). Our analysis shows that OPs use strategies that would be more suitable for a commodity market than for drugs. These strategies differentiate according to variety (brand or generic), quality, quantity, and target group. OPs are well aware that the vacuum in the legislation allows them to reach a target of consumers that pharmacies cannot normally reach, such as those who would like to use the drug without consulting a physician (or, even worse, against the physician's advice). In this case, they usually charge a higher price, reassure the users by minimizing on the side effects, and induce them to bulk purchase through sensible price discounts. This analysis suggests that the selling of drugs via the Internet can turn into a "public health risk", as has been pointed out by the US Food and Drug Administration. PMID:19394104

  1. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market...

  2. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market...

  3. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market...

  4. 48 CFR 19.807 - Estimating the fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Estimating the fair market...) Program) 19.807 Estimating the fair market price. (a) The contracting officer shall estimate the fair market price of the work to be performed by the 8(a) contractor. (b) In estimating the fair market...

  5. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  6. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  7. An empirical study on information spillover effects between the Chinese copper futures market and spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xiangli; Cheng, Siwei; Wang, Shouyang; Hong, Yongmiao; Li, Yi

    2008-02-01

    This study employs a parametric approach based on TGARCH and GARCH models to estimate the VaR of the copper futures market and spot market in China. Considering the short selling mechanism in the futures market, the paper introduces two new notions: upside VaR and extreme upside risk spillover. And downside VaR and upside VaR are examined by using the above approach. Also, we use Kupiec’s [P.H. Kupiec, Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, Journal of Derivatives 3 (1995) 73-84] backtest to test the power of our approaches. In addition, we investigate information spillover effects between the futures market and the spot market by employing a linear Granger causality test, and Granger causality tests in mean, volatility and risk respectively. Moreover, we also investigate the relationship between the futures market and the spot market by using a test based on a kernel function. Empirical results indicate that there exist significant two-way spillovers between the futures market and the spot market, and the spillovers from the futures market to the spot market are much more striking.

  8. 78 FR 9330 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-08

    ... Cotton Research and Promotion Act. Updated bona fide spot market definitions will allow for published... Federal Register on August 4, 1988 (53 FR 29327). For each of these bona fide spot markets, the Cotton and... Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed...

  9. Does dynamic pricing make sense for mass market customers?

    SciTech Connect

    McDonough, Catherine; Kraus, Robert

    2007-08-15

    The added incentive to modify electric use under hourly versus monthly market-based pricing is small for most mass market customers in Upstate New York. If the ultimate policy goal of demand-response programs is to reduce peak load, then promoting conservation measures under monthly market-based pricing holds more promise. (author)

  10. 78 FR 25181 - Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-30

    ... assure consistency with the revised Cotton Research and Promotion Act. Updated bona fide spot market... Federal Register on August 4, 1988 (53 FR 29327). For each of these bona fide spot markets, the Cotton and... Service 7 CFR Part 27 RIN 0581-AD26 Revision of Regulations Defining Bona Fide Cotton Spot Markets...

  11. Time spans between price maxima and price minima in stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Yongjie; Li, Honggang

    2014-02-01

    We empirically investigate the distribution of time spans between price maxima and price minima in international stock markets, where a time span is defined as the time interval between a local price minimum and a local price maximum, and local price extrema are identified by a method introduced by Preis and Stanley (Preis et al. (2011), Preis (2011), Preis and Stanley (2011, 2010), Preis (2010), Preis and Stanley (2010), Stanley et al. (2010), Preis and Stanley (2009)). The empirical results show that both the tail distributions of time spans from local price maxima to local price minima and the tail distributions of time spans from local price minima to local price maxima yield an exponential distribution. In addition, price rise/fall asymmetry is observed by comparing the values of the exponents of the distribution curves. These results are robust across eight representative stock markets.

  12. Crude oil prices as determined by OPEC and market fundamentals

    SciTech Connect

    MacAvoy, P.W.

    1982-01-01

    A detailed analysis of the causes of oil price increases during the last decade and of the consequences for price levels in the 1980s, this study includes both market fundamentals and the OPEC cartel in identifying major and minor determinants of price changes in the world crude-oil market. MacAvoy poses a scenario without OPEC, and argues that world-market supply-and-demand conditions would have resulted in the same yearly average price increases. He argues that pressuring OPEC to prevent or mitigate future price increases will not work. Instead, policymakers must view crude oil prices from a wider political and economic perspective. Only then can they successfully anticipate abrupt price changes that are inherent to the market itself. 30 references, 9 figures, 52 tables.

  13. Majority orienting model for the oscillation of market price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, H.; Itoh, Y.

    2004-01-01

    The present paper introduces a majority orienting model in which the dealers' behavior changes based on the influence of the price to show the oscillation of stock price in the stock market. We show the oscillation of the price for the model by applying the vanderPol equation which is a deterministic approximation of our model.

  14. Marketing Theory Applied to Price Discrimination in Journals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talaga, James; Haley, Jean Walstrom

    1991-01-01

    Discussion of discriminatory pricing by journal publishers and its effects on libraries focuses on six prerequisites for successful discriminatory pricing that are based on marketing theory. Strategies to eliminate some of these prerequisites--and therefore eliminate discriminatory pricing--are suggested, including the need to change the attitudes…

  15. Traders' strategy with price feedbacks in financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Nakano, Tohur; Takayasu, Misako; Takayasu, Hideki

    2004-12-01

    We introduce an autoregressive-type model of prices in the financial market taking into account the self-modulation effect. We find that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of past prices. These feedbacks are responsible for the slow diffusion in short times, apparent trends and power law distribution of price changes.

  16. The Pricing of British Journals for the North American Market.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuttle, Marcia

    1986-01-01

    Presents an informal report of seminar entitled "Learned Journals: The Problem of Pricing and Buying Round," held in London on March 22, 1985, in attempt to answer charges of discriminatory pricing. Price differential of British scholarly journals, costs, marketing, and role of subscription agent are discussed. Seven sources are given. (EJS)

  17. The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aaronson, Daniel; French, Eric; MacDonald, James

    2008-01-01

    Using store-level and aggregated Consumer Price Index data, we show that restaurant prices rise in response to minimum wage increases under several sources of identifying variation. We introduce a general model of employment determination that implies minimum wage hikes cause prices to rise in competitive labor markets but potentially fall in…

  18. Multifractal cross-correlation analysis in electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Qingju; Li, Dan

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the multiscale cross-correlations between electricity price and trading volume in Czech market based on a newly developed algorithm, called Multifractal Cross-Correlation Analysis (MFCCA). The new algorithm is a natural multifractal generalization of the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and is sensitive to cross-correlation structure and free from limitations of other algorithms. By considering the original sign of the cross-covariance, it allows us to properly quantify and detect the subtle characteristics of two simultaneous recorded time series. First, the multifractality and the long range anti-persistent auto-correlations of price return and trading volume variation are confirmed using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA). Furthermore, we show that there exist long-range anti-persistent cross-correlations between price return and trading volume variation by MFCCA. And we also identify that the cross-correlations disappear on the level of relative small fluctuations. In order to obtain deeper insight into the dynamics of the electricity market, we analyze the relation between generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent λq. We find that the difference between the generalized Hurst exponent and the multifractal cross-correlation scaling exponent is significantly different for smaller fluctuation, which indicates that the multifractal character of cross-correlations resembles more each other for electricity price and trading volume on the level of large fluctuations and weakens for the smaller ones.

  19. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market price... 7 Agriculture 10 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Net market price. 1221.16 Section 1221.16...

  20. Uranium prices continue their upward climb

    SciTech Connect

    1996-03-01

    This article is the uranium market overview for the month of February 1996. Prices were up in the spot market for U3O8, while conversion market prices and SWU prices remained steady. There were six trades in the U3O8 spot market, ten deals in the long-term U3O8 market, three deals in the conversion market, and a single deal in the SWU market.

  1. Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging?

    PubMed Central

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers’ clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers’ preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking. PMID:24015219

  2. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  3. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  4. Should Consumers Be Priced Out of Pollution-Permit Markets?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Stefani C.; Yates, Andrew J.

    2003-01-01

    Presents a simple diagrammatic exposition of a pollution-permit market in which firms that generate pollution and consumers who are harmed by pollution are allowed to purchase permits at a single market price. Illustrates that the market equilibrium is efficient only if the endowment of permits is equal to the efficient level of pollution. (JEH)

  5. Multifractal analysis of spot rates in tanker markets and their comparisons with crude oil markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Shiyuan; Lan, Xiangang

    2016-02-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic features of the spot rates for VLCC/ULCC, Suezmax, Aframax, Panamax and Handysize tanker markets by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The Hurst exponents, especially the time-dependent Hurst exponents, of the daily rate returns are calculated to capture the fractal properties of these different tanker markets. The origins of multifractility in these markets are identified by comparing their multifractal scaling exponents based on the original data, the shuffled data and the surrogate data. Furthermore, the non-periodic cycles for these markets are detected by the V-statistic. Finally, the comparisons of the fractal properties between the tanker markets and the crude oil commodity markets suggest that the tanker markets are more fractal than their upstream counterparts.

  6. Distribution of asset price movement and market potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dong Han; Marmi, Stefano

    2015-07-01

    In this article we discuss the distribution of asset price movements by introducing a market potential function. From the principle of free energy minimization we analyze two different kinds of market potentials. We obtain a U-shaped potential when market reversion (i.e. contrarian investors) is dominant. On the other hand, if there are more trend followers, flat and logarithmic potentials appear. By using the cyclically adjusted price-to-earning ratio, which is a common valuation tool, we empirically investigate the market data. By studying long term data we observe the historical change of the market potential of the US stock market. Recent US data show that the market potential looks more like a trend-following potential. Next, we compare the market potentials for 12 different countries. Though some countries have similar market potentials, there are specific examples like Japan which exhibits a very flat potential.

  7. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the 'big ones'.

    PubMed

    Tsikliras, Athanassios C; Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing. PMID:25392754

  8. Facing Price Risks in Internet-of-Services Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matros, Raimund; Streitberger, Werner; Koenig, Stefan; Eymann, Torsten

    Internet-of-Services markets allow companies to procure computational resources and application services externally and thus to save both internal capital expenditures and operational costs. Despite the advantages of this new paradigm only few work has been done in the field of risk management concerning Internet-of-Services markets. We simulate such a market using a Grid simulator. The results show that market participants are exposed to price risk. Based on our results we identify and assess technical failures which could lead to loss on service consumer's side. We also show that technical failures influence service prices which lead to volatile prices. Both, service provider and service consumer are exposed to this uncertainty and need a way to face it. Therefore we apply a financial option model to overcome price risk.

  9. Domestic petroleum-product prices around the world. Survey: free market or government price controls

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1983-01-27

    In this issue, Energy Detente draws from their regular Western and Eastern Hemisphere Fuel Price/Tax Series, each produced monthly, and adds other survey data and analysis for a broad view of 48 countries around the world. They find that seven Latin American nations, including OPEC members Venezuela and Ecuador, are among the ten countries with lowest gasoline prices. In this Fourth Special Price Report, Energy Detente provides a first-time presentation of which prices are government-controlled, and which are free to respond to market forces. South Korea, with fixed prices since 1964, has the highest premium-grade gasoline price in our survey, US $5.38 per gallon. Paraguay, with prices fixed by PETROPAR, the national oil company, has the second highest premium gasoline price, US $4.21 per gallon. Nicaragua, also with government price controls, ranks third highest in the survey, with US $3.38 per gallon for premium gasoline. Kuwait shows the lowest price at US $0.55 per gallon. Several price changes from the previous survey reflect changes in currency exchange as all prices are converted to US dollars. The Energy Detente fuel price/tax series is presented for Western Hemisphere countries.

  10. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  11. Entry, Pricing, and Product Design in an Initially Monopolized Market

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Steven J.; Murphy, Kevin M.; Topel, Robert H.

    2004-01-01

    We analyze entry, pricing, and product design in a model with differentiated products. Market equilibrium can be "separating," with multiple sellers and a sorting of heterogeneous consumers across goods, or "exclusionary," with one seller serving all customer types. Entry into an initially monopolized market can occur because of cost reductions or…

  12. Fluctuation in option pricing using cellular automata based market models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yuying; Beni, Gerardo

    2005-05-01

    A new agent-based Cellular Automaton (CA) computational algorithm for option pricing is proposed. CAs have been extensively used in modeling complex dynamical systems but not in modeling option prices. Compared with traditional tools, which rely on guessing volatilities to calculate option prices, the CA model is directly addressing market mechanisms and simulates price fluctuation from aggregation of actions made by interacting individual market makers in a large population. This paper explores whether CA models can provide reasonable good answers to pricing European options. The Black-Scholes model and the Binomial Tree model are used for comparison. Comparison reveals that CA models perform reasonably well in pricing options, reproducing overall characteristics of random walk based model, while at the same time providing plausible results for the 'fat-tail' phenomenon observed in many markets. We also show that the binomial tree model can be obtained from a CA rule. Thus, CA models are suitable tools to generalize the standard theories of option pricing.

  13. Collective behavior of stock price movements in an emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

    2007-10-01

    To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed markets, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This is shown to be due to the dominant influence of a common market mode on the stock prices. By comparison, interactions between related stocks, e.g., those belonging to the same business sector, are much weaker. This lack of distinct sector identity in emerging markets is explicitly shown by reconstructing the network of mutually interacting stocks. Spectral analysis of C for NSE reveals that, the few largest eigenvalues deviate from the bulk of the spectrum predicted by random matrix theory, but they are far fewer in number compared to, e.g., NYSE. We show this to be due to the relative weakness of intrasector interactions between stocks, compared to the market mode, by modeling stock price dynamics with a two-factor model. Our results suggest that the emergence of an internal structure comprising multiple groups of strongly coupled components is a signature of market development.

  14. An analysis of strategic price setting in retail gasoline markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaureguiberry, Florencia

    This dissertation studies price-setting behavior in the retail gasoline industry. The main questions addressed are: How important is a retail station's brand and proximity to competitors when retail stations set price? How do retailers adjust their pricing when they cater to consumers who are less aware of competing options or have less discretion over where they purchase gasoline? These questions are explored in two separate analyses using a unique datasets containing retail pricing behavior of stations in California and in 24 different metropolitan areas. The evidence suggests that brand and location generate local market power for gasoline stations. After controlling for market and station characteristics, the analysis finds a spread of 11 cents per gallon between the highest and the lowest priced retail gasoline brands. The analysis also indicates that when the nearest competitor is located over 2 miles away as opposed to next door, consumers will pay an additional 1 cent per gallon of gasoline. In order to quantify the significance of local market power, data for stations located near major airport rental car locations are utilized. The presumption here is that rental car users are less aware or less sensitive to fueling options near the rental car return location and are to some extent "captured consumers". Retailers located near rental car locations have incentives to adjust their pricing strategies to exploit this. The analysis of pricing near rental car locations indicates that retailers charge prices that are 4 cent per gallon higher than other stations in the same metropolitan area. This analysis is of interest to regulators who are concerned with issues of consolidation, market power, and pricing in the retail gasoline industry. This dissertation concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the empirical analysis.

  15. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  16. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  17. 78 FR 70080 - Market Dominant Price Adjustment

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-22

    ... average for First-Class Mail. The unit price for the least presorted automation category increases by 1..., 3-Digit, and 5- Digit automation presort letters are 2.5 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.3 percent, and 1.7...-automation and Automation). Id. Flats. The overall increase for Flats is 1.267 percent. Id. at 22....

  18. Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, B.; Miller, M.

    2009-09-01

    In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs. This report presents data on programs that have funded both marketing and program administration. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gathers the data annually from utility green pricing program managers. Programs reporting data to NREL spent a median of 18.8% of program revenues on marketing their programs in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. The smallest utilities (those with less than 25,000 in their eligible customer base) spent 49% of revenues on marketing, significantly more than the overall median. This report addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs--and the role of marketing, generally, in achieving program objectives, including expansion of renewable energy.

  19. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable...

  20. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable...

  1. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable...

  2. 48 CFR 19.202-6 - Determination of fair market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... market price. 19.202-6 Section 19.202-6 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS SMALL BUSINESS PROGRAMS Policies 19.202-6 Determination of fair market price. (a) The fair market price shall be the price achieved in accordance with the reasonable...

  3. Spillover effects of oil price shocks across stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Zhan Jian; Sek, Siok Kun

    2014-12-01

    Oil price shock can impose detrimental effects to an economy. In this study, we empirically study the spillover effects of oil price shock on determining volatilities of stock markets across the main oil importing and oil producing countries. In particular, we are interested to compare the relative impact of oil price shock on the volatilities of stock markets and how each stock market reacts to oil price shock for oil importing and oil producing countries. We focus the study in four main oil importer and four oil producers respectively using the daily data starting from January 2009 to December 2013. The multivariate GARCH(1,1) model is applied for the purpose of this study. The results of the study suggest that there exist spillover effect between crude oil price and stock returns for all the countries. The short run persistency of spillover effect in oil-exporting countries is lower than oil-importing countries but the long run persistency of spillover effect in oil-exporting countries is higher than oil-importing countries. In general the short run persistency is smaller and the long run persistency is very high. The results hold for volatility of oil price and stock returns and also spillover volatility in all countries.

  4. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    .../32-inch) cotton, CFR (cost and freight) Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland cotton... lowest-priced growths of the growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East. (2) During the period... growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland...

  5. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    .../32-inch) cotton, CFR (cost and freight) Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland cotton... lowest-priced growths of the growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East. (2) During the period... growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland...

  6. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    .../32-inch) cotton, CFR (cost and freight) Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland cotton... lowest-priced growths of the growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East. (2) During the period... growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland...

  7. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    .../32-inch) cotton, CFR (cost and freight) Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland cotton... lowest-priced growths of the growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East. (2) During the period... growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland...

  8. 7 CFR 1427.25 - Determination of the prevailing world market price and the adjusted world price for upland cotton.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    .../32-inch) cotton, CFR (cost and freight) Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland cotton... lowest-priced growths of the growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East. (2) During the period... growths quoted for M 13/32-inch cotton, CFR Far East, the prevailing world market price for upland...

  9. Spectral method for pricing options in illiquid markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pindza, Edson; Patidar, Kailash C.

    2012-09-01

    We present a robust numerical method to solve a problem of pricing options in illiquid markets. The governing equation is described by a nonlinear Black-Scholes partial differential equation (BS-PDE) of the reaction-diffusion-advection type. To discretise this BS-PDE numerically, we use a spectral method in the asset (spatial) direction and couple it with a fifth order RADAU method for the discretisation in the time direction. Numerical experiments illustrate that our approach is very efficient for pricing financial options in illiquid markets.

  10. Experiences with energy prices in a deregulated market

    SciTech Connect

    Rebellon, P.

    1999-11-01

    The energy market was deregulated in Colombia back in 1994. Since then, an increasing share of energy has been traded at prices dictated essentially by market considerations, not always coherent with sound technical and commercial practices. This paper is based on the author`s experiences with the negotiation of a number of contracts for energy purchase between 1994 and 1997. It starts with a brief presentation of the Colombian power system, the key players and the structure of energy prices before the market was deregulated. An overview of the conditions that led to power shortages in 1992 is included. The document continues with the description of the operation of the Colombian deregulated energy market, as well as the available contracts and energy transactions. Then, the evolution of the energy bid prices submitted by different generating companies during the period 1994--1997 is developed in detail. The final part of the paper discusses the effects of the energy prices in the operation of the system; the financial impact for IPPs; the economic signals given to the market; and the overall performance of the national power system.

  11. Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

    SciTech Connect

    Fujita, K. Sydny

    2015-08-04

    This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

  12. Effects of reference pricing in pharmaceutical markets: a review.

    PubMed

    Galizzi, Matteo Maria; Ghislandi, Simone; Miraldo, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    This work aims to provide a systematic and updated survey of original scientific studies on the effect of the introduction of reference pricing (RP) policies in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. We searched PubMed, EconLit and Web of Knowledge for articles on RP. We reviewed studies that met the inclusion criteria established in the search strategy. From a total of 468 references, we selected the 35 that met all of the inclusion criteria. Some common themes emerged in the literature. The first was that RP was generally associated with a decrease in the prices of the drugs subject to the policy. In particular, price drops seem to have been experienced in virtually every country that implemented a generic RP (GRP) policy. A GRP policy applies only to products with expired patents and generic competition, and clusters drugs according to chemical equivalence (same form and active compound). More significant price decreases were observed in the sub-markets in which drugs were already facing generic competition prior to RP. Price drops varied widely according to the amount of generic competition and industrial strategies: brand-named drugs originally priced above RP values decreased their prices to a greater extent. A second common theme was that both therapeutic RP (TRP) and GRP have been associated with significant and consistent savings in the first years of application. A third general result is that generic market shares significantly increased whenever the firms producing brand-named drugs did not adopt one of the following strategies: lowering prices to RP values; launching new dosages and/or formulations; or marketing substitute drugs still under patent protection. Finally, concerning TRP, although more evidence is needed, studies based on a large number of patient-level observations showed no association between the RP policy and health outcomes. PMID:21142276

  13. Analysis of price fluctuations in futures exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Gyuchang; Kim, SooYong; Scalas, Enrico; Kim, Kyungsik; Chang, Ki-Ho

    2008-05-01

    We show that the fluctuations of the tick-by-tick logarithmic price in a futures market can be described in terms of the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE). We calculate the corresponding drift and diffusion coefficients and argue that these values can contain some information pertaining to the market state. It is particularly showed that the Korean treasury bond (KTB) futures is well described by a FPE and has a similar structure to turbulence.

  14. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94 Section 27.94 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON...

  15. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94 Section 27.94 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON...

  16. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94 Section 27.94 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON...

  17. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94 Section 27.94 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON...

  18. 7 CFR 27.94 - Spot markets for contract settlement purposes.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Spot markets for contract settlement purposes. 27.94 Section 27.94 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Standards, Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY STANDARDS AND STANDARD CONTAINER REGULATIONS COTTON...

  19. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  20. Crude oil prices: Are our oil markets too tight?

    SciTech Connect

    Simmons, M.R.

    1997-02-01

    The answer to the question posed in the title is that tightness in the market will surely prevail through 1997. And as discussed herein, with worldwide demand expected to continue to grow, there will be a strong call on extra oil supply. Meeting those demands, however, will not be straightforward--as many observers wrongly believe--considering the industry`s practice of maintaining crude stocks at ``Just in time`` inventory levels. Further, impact will be felt from the growing rig shortage, particularly for deepwater units, and down-stream capacity limits. While these factors indicate 1997 should be another good year for the service industry, it is difficult to get any kind of consensus view from the oil price market. With most observers` information dominated by the rarely optimistic futures price of crude, as reflected by the NYMEX, the important fact is that oil prices have remained stable for three years and increased steadily through 1996.

  1. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  2. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  3. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  4. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  5. 7 CFR 1220.115 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SOYBEAN PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND CONSUMER INFORMATION Soybean Promotion and Research Order Definitions § 1220.115 Net market price. The term... other value received by a producer for soybeans after adjustments for any premium or discount based...

  6. Creating successful price and placement strategies for social marketing.

    PubMed

    Thackeray, Rosemary; Brown, Kelli R McCormack

    2010-03-01

    A successful marketing strategy includes the design of a marketing mix with the right combination of products, offered at the right price, in the right place, and then promoted in such a way that makes it easy and rewarding for the individual to change his or her behavior. A price is incurred in exchange for receiving a bundle of benefits. The social marketer can use various pricing tactics to make the desired behavior appear to have fewer costs and more benefits while making the undesired behavior to have less benefit and greater cost. Place is where and when the target population will perform the desired behavior, purchase or obtain a tangible product, and/or receive associated services. Involving partners in the placement strategy can make products more accessible and increase opportunities for people to perform a behavior. Strategies for making the product available at a desirable price and in places that are convenient are integral to the overall social marketing plan to facilitate behavior change. PMID:20400655

  7. The Effects of Market Structure on Television News Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wirth, Michael O.; Wollert, James A.

    Multiple regression techniques were used to examine the business side of local television news operations for November 1978. Research questions examined the effect of several variables on local television news prices (advertising rates), including type of ownership, network affiliation/signal type, market size, cable network penetration, market…

  8. Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

    When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation

  9. The increasing necessity for market-based pharmaceutical prices.

    PubMed

    Calfee, J E

    2000-01-01

    In most markets, research and development are driven by expected prices, and those prices are determined mainly by consumer willingness to pay for the potential benefits of new products. In the pharmaceutical market, however, the dominant role of government and tax-induced insurance has tended to create a wedge between expected prices and consumer willingness to pay to cure or prevent disease. This distorts investment decisions, tending to cause underinvestment. Recent developments have expanded this gap. The greatly enhanced efficiency of pharmaceutical research has permitted the development of products that provide long term prevention and quality-of-life improvements. While some of these new products can delay or obviate chronic conditions of old age, they do not necessarily reduce healthcare costs (at least not in the short or medium run). Most of the massive benefits of the new research streams are therefore pure consumer benefits, with little benefit for the acute care activities that are the core functions of European and American healthcare delivery or payment systems. These new products are very expensive, despite increased research efficiency, because that efficiency has permitted the industry to address difficult problems that had previously been impervious to solution. To serve consumers well, healthcare providers would have to increase expenditures and prices or taxes to cover these added pharmaceutical costs. But the new products are likely to be perceived mainly as cost increases. The effect is that healthcare entities will become less suited to serve as agents for consumers. One reason is that the most natural, reliable and widely used metrics for evaluating new drugs--healthcare savings and acute care improvements--will be increasingly irrelevant. The implication is that, to a much greater extent than in the past, only market-determined prices can provide adequate signals for future pharmaceutical research investment. The failure to use market

  10. Price Analysis of Railway Freight Transport under Marketing Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Ying; Fang, Xiaoping; Chen, Zhiya

    Regarding the problems in the reform of the railway tariff system and the pricing of the transport, by means of assaying the influence of the price elasticity on the artifice used for price, this article proposed multiple regressive model which analyzed price elasticity quantitatively. This model conclude multi-factors which influences on the price elasticity, such as the averagely railway freight charge, the averagely freight haulage of proximate supersede transportation mode, the GDP per capita in the point of origin, and a series of dummy variable which can reflect the features of some productive and consume demesne. It can calculate the price elasticity of different classes in different domains, and predict the freight traffic volume on different rate levels. It can calculate confidence-level, and evaluate the relevance of each parameter to get rid of irrelevant or little relevant variables. It supplied a good theoretical basis for directing the pricing of transport enterprises in market economic conditions, which is suitable for railway freight, passenger traffic and other transportation manner as well. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software was used to calculate and analysis the example. This article realized the calculation by HYFX system(Ministry of Railways fund).

  11. Beneficiary price sensitivity in the Medicare prescription drug plan market.

    PubMed

    Frakt, Austin B; Pizer, Steven D

    2010-01-01

    The Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) came into existence in 2006 as part of the Medicare prescription drug benefit. It is the most popular plan type among Medicare drug plans and large numbers of plans are available to all beneficiaries. In this article we present the first analysis of beneficiary price sensitivity in the PDP market. Our estimate of elasticity of enrollment with respect to premium, -1.45, is larger in magnitude than has been found in the Medicare HMO market. This high degree of beneficiary price sensitivity for PDPs is consistent with relatively low product differentiation, low fixed costs of entry in the PDP market, and the fact that, in contrast to changing HMOs, beneficiaries can select a PDP without disrupting doctor-patient relationships. PMID:19191252

  12. Comprehensive tobacco marketing restrictions: promotion, packaging, price and place

    PubMed Central

    Henriksen, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Evidence of the causal role of marketing in the tobacco epidemic and the advent of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have inspired more than half the countries in the world to ban some forms of tobacco marketing. This paper briefly describes the ways in which cigarette marketing is restricted and the tobacco industry's efforts to subvert restrictions. It reviews what is known about the impact of marketing regulations on smoking by adults and adolescents. It also addresses what little is known about the impact of marketing bans in relation to concurrent population-level interventions, such as price controls, anti-tobacco media campaigns and smoke-free laws. Point of sale is the least regulated channel and research is needed to address the immediate and long-term consequences of policies to ban retail advertising and pack displays. Comprehensive marketing restrictions require a global ban on all forms of promotion, elimination of packaging and price as marketing tools, and limitations on the quantity, type and location of tobacco retailers. PMID:22345238

  13. The lead market: outlook for the global market and prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, D.

    This study of the lead market examines four areas in depth. Western World consumption is considered first before turning to the role of Chinese exports. Two factors on the supply side—secondary production and mining—are then examined.

  14. Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.; Moezzi, M.; Bharvirkar, R.; Neenan, B.; Boisvert, R.; Cappers, P.; Pratt, D.

    2004-07-01

    There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource and are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.

  15. Market Distortion and the Tuition Pricing Mechanism of Higher Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Wei; Wu, Haiquan

    2008-01-01

    Higher education in the market economy is inevitable affected by the higher education market. The tuition of higher education in china had become the personal price performance of higher education in certain degrees and exerts some certain functions of price mechanism. Because the higher education market distortion that tuition pricing cannot…

  16. 7 CFR 1437.11 - Average market price and payment factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... ASSISTANCE PROGRAM General Provisions § 1437.11 Average market price and payment factors. (a) An average market price will be used to calculate assistance under this part and will be: (1) A dollar value per the... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Average market price and payment factors....

  17. Power systems locational marginal pricing in deregulated markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hui-Fung Francis

    Since the beginning of the 1990s, the electricity business is transforming from a vertical integrating business to a competitive market operations. The generation, transmission, distribution subsystem of an electricity utility are operated independently as Genco (generation subsystem), Transco (transmission subsystem), and Distco (distribution subsystem). This trend promotes more economical inter- and intra regional transactions to be made by the participating companies and the users of electricity to achieve the intended objectives of deregulation. There are various types of electricity markets that are implemented in the North America in the past few years. However, transmission congestion management becomes a key issue in the electricity market design as more bilateral transactions are traded across long distances competing for scarce transmission resources. It directly alters the traditional concept of energy pricing and impacts the bottom line, revenue and cost of electricity, of both suppliers and buyers. In this research, transmission congestion problem in a deregulated market environment is elucidated by implementing by the Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) method. With a comprehensive understanding of the LMP method, new mathematical tools will aid electric utilities in exploring new business opportunities are developed and presented in this dissertation. The dissertation focuses on the development of concept of (LMP) forecasting and its implication to the market participants in deregulated market. Specifically, we explore methods of developing fast LMP calculation techniques that are differ from existing LMPs. We also explore and document the usefulness of the proposed LMP in determining electricity pricing of a large scale power system. The developed mathematical tools use of well-known optimization techniques such as linear programming that are support by several flow charts. The fast and practical security constrained unit commitment methods are the

  18. Empirical investigation of stock price dynamics in an emerging market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palágyi, Zoltán; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    1999-07-01

    We study the development of an emerging market - the Budapest Stock Exchange - by investigating the time evolution of some statistical properties of heavily traded stocks. Moving quarter by quarter over a period of two and a half years we analyze the scaling properties of the standard deviation of intra-day log-price changes. We observe scaling using both seconds and ticks as units of time. For the investigated stocks a Levy shape is a good approximation to the probability density function of tick-by-tick log-price changes in each quarter: the index of the distribution follows an increasing trend, suggesting it could be used as a measure of market efficiency.

  19. ESTIMATING WELFARE IN INSURANCE MARKETS USING VARIATION IN PRICES*

    PubMed Central

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Cullen, Mark R.

    2009-01-01

    We provide a graphical illustration of how standard consumer and producer theory can be used to quantify the welfare loss associated with inefficient pricing in insurance markets with selection. We then show how this welfare loss can be estimated empirically using identifying variation in the price of insurance. Such variation, together with quantity data, allows us to estimate the demand for insurance. The same variation, together with cost data, allows us to estimate how insurer’s costs vary as market participants endogenously respond to price. The slope of this estimated cost curve provides a direct test for both the existence and nature of selection, and the combination of demand and cost curves can be used to estimate welfare. We illustrate our approach by applying it to data on employer-provided health insurance from one specific company. We detect adverse selection but estimate that the quantitative welfare implications associated with inefficient pricing in our particular application are small, in both absolute and relative terms. PMID:21218182

  20. On possible origins of trends in financial market price changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Ryo; Nakamura, Tomomichi; Kimura, Shin; Manabe, Masashi; Tanizawa, Toshihiro

    2015-02-01

    We investigate possible origins of the trends in financial markets, where trend we refer to as is a relatively long-term fluctuation observed in price change (price movement), using a simple deterministic threshold model that contains no external driving force term to generate trends forcibly. We find that the trend can be generated by this simple model without any external driving force. Furthermore, from thorough numerical simulations, we obtain two following results: (i) a trend of monotonic increase or decrease can be generated only by dealers' minuscule price updates for the next deal trying to follow an expected forthcoming direction of price change, (ii) non-monotonic trends spontaneously emerge when dealers cannot obtain accurate information about the number of dealers participating in the next deal. We conclude from these results that the emergence of trends is not necessarily generated by an external driving force but by a natural outcome of the accumulation of minuscule price updates of individual dealers with insufficient information about the next deal.

  1. High and varying prices for privately insured patients underscore hospital market power.

    PubMed

    White, Chapin; Bond, Amelia M; Reschovsky, James D

    2013-09-01

    Across 13 selected U.S. metropolitan areas, hospital prices for privately insured patients are much higher than Medicare payment rates and vary widely across and within markets, according to a study by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC) based on claims data for about 590,000 active and retired nonelderly autoworkers and their dependents. Across the 13 communities, aver­age hospital prices for privately insured patients are about one-and-a-half times Medicare rates for inpatient care and two times what Medicare pays for outpa­tient care. Within individual communities, prices vary widely, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid 60 percent more for inpatient services than the lowest-priced hospital. The price gap within markets is even greater for hospital outpatient care, with the highest-priced hospital typically paid nearly double the lowest-priced hospital. In contrast to the wide variation in hospital prices for pri­vately insured patients across and within markets, prices for primary care physi­cian services generally are close to Medicare rates and vary little within markets. Prices for specialist physician services, however, are higher relative to Medicare and vary more across and within markets. Of the 13 markets, five are in Michigan, which has an unusually concentrated private insurance market, with one insurer commanding a 70-percent market share. Despite the presence of a dominant insurer, almost all Michigan hospi­tals command prices that are higher than Medicare, and some hospitals com­mand prices that are twice what Medicare pays. In the eight markets outside of Michigan, private insurers generally pay even higher hospital prices, with even wider gaps between high- and low-priced hospitals. The variation in hospital and specialist physician prices within communities underscores that some hospitals and physicians have significant market power to command high prices, even in markets with a dominant insurer. PMID:24073466

  2. Market power in electric power markets: Indications of competitiveness in spatial prices for wholesale electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denton, Michael John

    The issue of market delineation and power in the wholesale electric energy market is explored using three separate approaches: two of these are analyses of spatial pricing data to explore the functional size of the markets, and the third is a series of experimental tests of the effects of different cost structures and market mechanisms on oligopoly strength in those markets. An equilibrium model of spatial network competition is shown to yield linear relationships between spatial prices. A data set comprising two years of spatial weekly peak and off-peak prices and weather for 6 locations in the Western States Coordinating Council and the Southwest Power Pool is subjected to a pairwise cointegration analysis. The use of dummy variables to account the the flow directions is found to significantly improve model performance. The second analytical technique utilizes the extraction of principal components from a spatial price correlation matrix to identify the extent of natural markets. One year of daily price observations for eleven locations within the WSCC is compiled and eigenvectors are extracted and subjected to oblique rotation, each of which is then interpreted as representing a separate geographic market. The results show that two distinct natural markets, correlated at 84%, account for over 96% of the variation in the spatial prices in the WSSC. Together, the findings support the assertion that the wholesale electricity market in the Western U.S. is large and highly competitive. The experimental analysis utilizes a radial three node network in which suppliers located at the outer nodes sell to buyers located at the central node. The parameterization captures the salient characteristics of the existing bulk power markets, and includes cyclical demand, transmission losses, as well as fixed and avoidable fixed costs for all agents. Treatments varied the number of sellers, the avoidable fixed cost structures, and the trading mechanism. Results indicated that

  3. How the spot market for Brent crude works

    SciTech Connect

    Nasmyth, J.; Binks, A.

    1986-04-01

    While terms like paper barrel, forward position and daisy chain are bandied about in the media, few understand the Brent forward market, which last year handled 1.5 billion bbl of oil. The market has no address, no rule book and no clearing house. Anyone with $18 million and a gambler's instinct can play. Immense personal fortunes have been made and lost on paper barrels, but the market survives as a means of limiting risk and tax liability for North Sea producers.

  4. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... counties. San Joaquin Valley All California counties except those included in the Desert Southwest market. ..., Erath, Comanche, Mills, San Saba, Mason, Sutton, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Webb, Zapata, Star...

  5. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... counties. San Joaquin Valley All California counties except those included in the Desert Southwest market. ..., Erath, Comanche, Mills, San Saba, Mason, Sutton, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Webb, Zapata, Star...

  6. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... counties. San Joaquin Valley All California counties except those included in the Desert Southwest market. ..., Parker, Erath, Comanche, Mills, San Saba, Mason, Sutton, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Webb, Zapata,...

  7. 7 CFR 27.93 - Bona fide spot markets.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ..., East Texas and Oklahoma, West Texas, Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley. Such markets will... counties. San Joaquin Valley All California counties except those included in the Desert Southwest market. ..., Erath, Comanche, Mills, San Saba, Mason, Sutton, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Webb, Zapata, Star...

  8. Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

    EPA Science Inventory

    The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

  9. Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatterjee, A.; Chakrabarti, B. K.

    2006-12-01

    We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), while the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution, for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

  10. Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotsan, Serhiy

    2005-07-01

    A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to

  11. A homotopy analysis method for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    E-Khatib, Youssef

    2012-09-01

    One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading the underlying asset does not affect the underlying asset price. This can happen in perfectly liquid markets and it is evidently not viable in markets with imperfect liquidity (illiquid markets). It is well-known that markets with imperfect liquidity are more realistic. Thus, the presence of price impact while studying options is very important. This paper investigates a solution for the option pricing PDE in illiquid markets using the homotopy analysis method.

  12. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiaotao; Ping, Jing; Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China's stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed. PMID:27513330

  13. Are Price Limits Effective? An Examination of an Artificial Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Tao; Li, Yuelei; Xiong, Xiong

    2016-01-01

    We investigated the inter-day effects of price limits policies that are employed in agent-based simulations. To isolate the impact of price limits from the impact of other factors, we built an artificial stock market with higher frequency price limits hitting. The trading mechanisms in this market are the same as the trading mechanisms in China’s stock market. Then, we designed a series of simulations with and without price limits policy. The results of these simulations demonstrate that both upper and lower price limits can cause a volatility spillover effect and a trading interference effect. The process of price discovery will be delayed if upper price limits are imposed on a stock market; however, this phenomenon does not occur when lower price limits are imposed. PMID:27513330

  14. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  15. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norouzzadeh, P.; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, B.

    2007-07-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal analysis, fluctuations behavior, the scaling exponents and generalized Hurst exponents are studied. Moreover, contribution of fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations to multifractality is studied.

  16. Flexible procurement strategies smooth price spikes

    SciTech Connect

    Gaalaas, T.

    2006-12-15

    Pace Global Energy Services has been predicting for some time that the recent peaks in spot coal prices were not sustainable and this has been borne out. The latest available data on coal supply and demand fundamental suggest that spot coal prices may decline even more rapidly than previously forecast. Price volatility over the last five years suggests that a flexible procurement strategy that is well adapted to volatile market conditions may be just as important as knowledge of market fundamentals. 3 figs.

  17. Essays on microgrids, asymmetric pricing and market power in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo Prete, Chiara

    This dissertation presents four studies of the electricity industry. The first and second essays use economic-engineering models to assess different aspects of microgrid penetration in regional electricity markets, while the last two studies contain empirical analyses aimed at evaluating the performance of wholesale electricity markets. Chapter 2 develops a framework to quantify economic, environmental, efficiency and reliability impacts of different power production scenarios in a regional system, focusing on the interaction of microgrids with the existing transmission and distribution grid. The setting is the regional network formed by Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands. The study presents simulations of power market outcomes under various policies and levels of microgrid penetration, and evaluates them using a diverse set of metrics. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between a microgrid and a regulated electric utility in a regional electricity market. I consider the interaction among the utility, the microgrid developer and consumers in the framework of cooperative game theory (assuming exchangeable utility), and use regional market models to simulate scenarios in which microgrid introduction may or may not be socially beneficial. Under the assumptions of this chapter, customer participation is essential to the development of socially beneficial microgrids, while the utility has little or no gain from it. Discussed incentives to avoid that utilities block microgrid entry include additional revenue drivers related to microgrid connection, decoupling and performance-based mechanisms targeted at service quality. When prices are below marginal costs of utility provided power, microgrid development may be socially beneficial, but unprofitable for microgrid customers and its developer. By imposing lower charges and higher remuneration for its services, the regulator could ensure that microgrid value is positive, without adversely impacting the utility

  18. Customer response to day-ahead market hourly pricing: Choices andperformance

    SciTech Connect

    Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie

    2005-10-10

    Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated to address extreme price volatility and market power in electricity markets. This study of Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation's largest customers analyzes their choices and performance in response to day-ahead, default-service RTP.Overall price response is modest: 119 customers are estimated to reduce their peak demand by about 10 percent at high prices. Manufacturing customers are most responsive with a price elasticity of 0.16, followed by government/education customers (0.11), while commercial/retail, healthcare and public works customers are, at present, relatively unresponsive. Within market segments, individual customer response varies significantly.

  19. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes

    PubMed Central

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others’ actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants. PMID:27513335

  20. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes.

    PubMed

    Maskawa, Jun-Ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others' actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants. PMID:27513335

  1. Price forecast in the competitive electricity market by support vector machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Ciwei; Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Cheng, Haozhong

    2007-08-01

    The electricity market has been widely introduced in many countries all over the world and the study on electricity price forecast technology has drawn a lot of attention. In this paper, with different parameter C i and ε i assigned to each training data, the flexible C i Support Vector Regression (SVR) model is developed in terms of the particularity of the price forecast in electricity market. For Day Ahead Market (DAM) price forecast, the load, time of use index and index of day type are taken as the major factors to characterize the market price, therefore, they are selected as the inputs for the flexible SVR forecast model. For the long-term price forecast, we take the reserve margin Rm, HHI and the fuel price index as the inputs, since they are the major factors that drive the market price variation in long run. For short-term price forecast, besides the detailed analysis with the young Italian electricity market, the new model is tested on the experimental stage of the Spanish market, the New York market and the New England market. The long-term forecast with the SVR model presented is justified by the forecast with the data from the Long Run Market Simulator (LREMS).

  2. Hospital prices and market structure in the hospital and insurance industries.

    PubMed

    Moriya, Asako S; Vogt, William B; Gaynor, Martin

    2010-10-01

    There has been substantial consolidation among health insurers and hospitals, recently, raising questions about the effects of this consolidation on the exercise of market power. We analyze the relationship between insurer and hospital market concentration and the prices of hospital services. We use a national US dataset containing transaction prices for health care services for over 11 million privately insured Americans. Using three years of panel data, we estimate how insurer and hospital market concentration are related to hospital prices, while controlling for unobserved market effects. We find that increases in insurance market concentration are significantly associated with decreases in hospital prices, whereas increases in hospital concentration are non-significantly associated with increases in prices. A hypothetical merger between two of five equally sized insurers is estimated to decrease hospital prices by 6.7%. PMID:20478106

  3. Market prices for water in the semiarid West of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brookshire, David S.; Colby, Bonnie; Ewers, Mary; Ganderton, Philip T.

    2004-09-01

    Market prices contain information about supply and demand, the institutions that influence both these elements, and the operation of the market. Prices also allocate scarce resources to higher-valued uses. In this paper we analyze the price history of three water markets in the arid Southwest: Arizona's Central Arizona Project, Colorado's Colorado Big Thompson Project, and New Mexico's Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District. Using water transfers over 11 years, we estimate a simultaneous system of market equations, one for price and the other for quantity demanded. Comparison of the institutional characteristics of each market reveals that Colorado's market is well developed, with many trades and rising prices that respond to market conditions, and New Mexico's market is developing well, with lower prices, but showing some response to supply and demand factors. Arizona's market is the least developed, with few trades and very low prices. Our empirical findings support our claim that markets are becoming more efficient in these regions despite the considerable institutional and historical impediments to the evolution of water markets.

  4. White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Peter M.

    The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

  5. Market review - Market values summary/October market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-01

    This article is the October 1995 uranium market summary. In this reporting period, there were four transactions in the natural uranium market, no activity in the spot UF6 market, no activity in the spot conversion market, and only a single activity in the enrichment services market. Spot uranium volume dropped sharply, and active uranium supply rose. The rise in demand, however, more than offset this increase. Unrestricted exchange prices rose slightly, as did the unrestricted UF6 value. All other prices remained steady.

  6. Threshold Pricing: A Strategy for the Marketing of Adult Education Courses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Because threshold pricing's scope for course price development had a good potential for application to the marketing of services by nonprofit organizations, this study's purpose was to determine the existence and applicability of course price thresholds or ranges to the decisionmaking framework of adult educators, with special reference to…

  7. Asset price and trade volume relation in artificial market impacted by value investors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tangmongkollert, K.; Suwanna, S.

    2016-05-01

    The relationship between return and trade volume has been of great interests in a financial market. The appearance of asymmetry in the price-volume relation in the bull and bear market is still unsettled. We present a model of the value investor traders (VIs) in the double auction system, in which agents make trading decision based on the pseudo fundamental price modelled by sawtooth oscillations. We investigate the system by two different time series for the asset fundamental price: one corresponds to the fundamental price in a growing phase; and the other corresponds to that in a declining phase. The simulation results show that the trade volume is proportional to the difference between the market price and the fundamental price, and that there is asymmetry between the buying and selling phases. Furthermore, the selling phase has more significant impact of price on the trade volume than the buying phase.

  8. An econometric analysis of the market for natural gas futures

    SciTech Connect

    Walls, W.D.

    1995-12-31

    This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of future markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets. 29 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  9. Analyzing millet price regimes and market performance in Niger with remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Essam, Timothy Michael

    This dissertation concerns the analysis of staple food prices and market performance in Niger using remotely sensed vegetation indices in the form of normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI). By exploiting the link between weather-related vegetation production conditions, which serve as a proxy for spatially explicit millet yields and thus millet availability, this study analyzes the potential causal links between NDVI outcomes and millet market performance and presents an empirical approach for predicting changes in market performance based on NDVI outcomes. Overall, the thesis finds that inter-market price spreads and levels of market integration can be reasonably explained by deviations in vegetation index outcomes from the growing season. Negative (positive) NDVI shocks are associated with better (worse) than expected market performance as measured by converging inter-market price spreads. As the number of markets affected by negatively abnormal vegetation production conditions in the same month of the growing season increases, inter-market price dispersion declines. Positive NDVI shocks, however, do not mirror this pattern in terms of the magnitude of inter-market price divergence. Market integration is also found to be linked to vegetation index outcomes as below (above) average NDVI outcomes result in more integrated (segmented) markets. Climate change and food security policies and interventions should be guided by these findings and account for dynamic relationships among market structures and vegetation production outcomes.

  10. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  11. A comparison of pay-as-bid and marginal pricing in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yongjun

    This thesis investigates the behaviour of electricity markets under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing. Marginal pricing is believed to yield the maximum social welfare and is currently implemented by most electricity markets. However, in view of recent electricity market failures, pay-as-bid has been extensively discussed as a possible alternative to marginal pricing. In this research, marginal and pay-as-bid pricing have been analyzed in electricity markets with both perfect and imperfect competition. The perfect competition case is studied under both exact and uncertain system marginal cost prediction. The comparison of the two pricing methods is conducted through two steps: (i) identify the best offer strategy of the generating companies (gencos); (ii) analyze the market performance under these optimum genco strategies. The analysis results together with numerical simulations show that pay-as-bid and marginal pricing are equivalent in a perfect market with exact system marginal cost prediction. In perfect markets with uncertain demand prediction, the two pricing methods are also equivalent but in an expected value sense. If we compare from the perspective of second order statistics, all market performance measures exhibit much lower values under pay-as-bid than under marginal pricing. The risk of deviating from the mean is therefore much higher under marginal pricing than under pay-as-bid. In an imperfect competition market with exact demand prediction, the research shows that pay-as-bid pricing yields lower consumer payments and lower genco profits. This research provides quantitative evidence that challenges some common claims about pay-as-bid pricing. One is that under pay-as-bid, participants would soon learn how to offer so as to obtain the same or higher profits than what they would have obtained under marginal pricing. This research however shows that, under pay-as-bid, participants can at best earn the same profit or expected profit as under marginal

  12. Relationships among Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from China

    PubMed Central

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market “underreacting.” The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market. PMID:23690737

  13. Relationships among energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy: evidence from China.

    PubMed

    Cong, Rong-Gang; Shen, Shaochuan

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships among China energy price shocks, stock market, and the macroeconomy using multivariate vector autoregression. The results indicate that there is a long cointegration among them. A 1% rise in the energy price index can depress the stock market index by 0.54% and the industrial value-adding growth by 0.037%. Energy price shocks also cause inflation and have a 5-month lag effect on stock market, which may result in the stock market "underreacting." The energy price can explain stock market fluctuations better than the interest rate over a longer time period. Consequently, investors should pay greater attention to the long-term effect of energy on the stock market. PMID:23690737

  14. The inevitable commoditization of electric power markets

    SciTech Connect

    Mango, B.; Woodley, J.A.C.

    1994-11-01

    As competition grows between electric suppliers it is inevitable that a spot market in electricity will evolve. The impetus is the market demand for greater asset productivity. With prices revealed, a commodity market will follow. With spot and commodity markets will come the power to reallocate risk and make capital investment more productive. Given price volatility, separate markets will develop for near- and long-term hedging instruments.

  15. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  16. The effects of drug market regulation on pharmaceutical prices in Europe: overview and evidence from the market of ACE inhibitors

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    This study provides an overview of policy measures targeting pharmaceutical expenditure in Europe and analyses their impact on originator pharmaceutical prices. Panel data methods are used to examine the market of ACE Inhibitors in six European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom) over period 1991-2006. We find that although some measures are effective in reducing originator prices, others appear to have an insignificant effect. Results suggest that supply side measures such as mandatory generic substitution, regressive pharmacy mark-ups and claw-backs are effective in reducing pharmaceuticals prices. Results are not as strong for demand side measures. Profit controls and the use of cost-effectiveness analysis appear to have a negative effect on prices, while results on reference pricing are inconclusive. Findings also indicate that, although originator prices are not immediately affected by generic entry, they may be influenced by changes in generic prices post patent expiry. PMID:22828053

  17. Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

    PubMed

    Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

    2003-03-14

    We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices. PMID:12689037

  18. Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

    2003-03-01

    We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

  19. Quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model for daily price-limited stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Xiangyi; Zhang, Jian-Wei; Xu, Jingjing; Guo, Hong

    2015-11-01

    We investigate the behaviors of stocks in daily price-limited stock markets by purposing a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model. The stock price is considered to be oscillating and damping in a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic oscillator potential well. A complicated non-linear relation including inter-band positive correlation and intra-band negative correlation between the volatility and trading volume of a stock is numerically derived with the energy band structure of the model concerned. The effectiveness of price limit is re-examined, with some observed characteristics of price-limited stock markets in China studied by applying our quantum model.

  20. SMART II : the spot market agent research tool version 2.0.

    SciTech Connect

    North, M. J. N.

    2000-12-14

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has worked closely with Western Area Power Administration (Western) over many years to develop a variety of electric power marketing and transmission system models that are being used for ongoing system planning and operation as well as analytic studies. Western markets and delivers reliable, cost-based electric power from 56 power plants to millions of consumers in 15 states. The Spot Market Agent Research Tool Version 2.0 (SMART II) is an investigative system that partially implements some important components of several existing ANL linear programming models, including some used by Western. SMART II does not implement a complete model of the Western utility system but it does include several salient features of this network for exploratory purposes. SMART II uses a Swarm agent-based framework. SMART II agents model bulk electric power transaction dynamics with recognition for marginal costs as well as transmission and generation constraints. SMART II uses a sparse graph of nodes and links to model the electric power spot market. The nodes represent power generators and consumers with distinct marginal decision curves and varying investment capital as well individual learning parameters. The links represent transmission lines with individual capacities taken from a range of central distribution, outlying distribution and feeder line types. The application of SMART II to electric power systems studies has produced useful results different from those often found using more traditional techniques. Use of the advanced features offered by the Swarm modeling environment simplified the creation of the SMART II model.

  1. Statistical Properties and Pre-Hit Dynamics of Price Limit Hits in the Chinese Stock Markets

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders’ short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  2. Statistical properties and pre-hit dynamics of price limit hits in the Chinese stock markets.

    PubMed

    Wan, Yu-Lei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Wei; Xiong, Xiong; Zhang, Wei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of price limit hits are not well studied partially due to the fact that main stock markets such as the US markets and most European markets do not set price limits. Here, we perform detailed analyses of the high-frequency data of all A-share common stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2011 to investigate the statistical properties of price limit hits and the dynamical evolution of several important financial variables before stock price hits its limits. We compare the properties of up-limit hits and down-limit hits. We also divide the whole period into three bullish periods and three bearish periods to unveil possible differences during bullish and bearish market states. To uncover the impacts of stock capitalization on price limit hits, we partition all stocks into six portfolios according to their capitalizations on different trading days. We find that the price limit trading rule has a cooling-off effect (object to the magnet effect), indicating that the rule takes effect in the Chinese stock markets. We find that price continuation is much more likely to occur than price reversal on the next trading day after a limit-hitting day, especially for down-limit hits, which has potential practical values for market practitioners. PMID:25874716

  3. Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

  4. 77 FR 38553 - Proposed Modification to Regulation Concerning the Use of Market Economy Input Prices in...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-28

    ...: Market Economy Inputs, Expected Non- Market Economy Wages, Duty Drawback; and Request for Comments, 71 FR...; Countervailing Duties, Final Rule, 62 FR 27296, 27366 (May 19, 1997); Shakeproof Assembly Components Div. of Ill... Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings AGENCY: Import Administration,...

  5. Scale-dependent price fluctuations for the Indian stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matia, K.; Pal, M.; Salunkay, H.; Stanley, H. E.

    2004-06-01

    Classic studies of the probability density of price fluctuations g for stocks and foreign exchanges of several highly developed economies have been interpreted using a power law probability density function P(g) ~ g-(α + 1) with exponent values α > 2. To test the ubiquity of this relationship we analyze daily returns for the period November 1994 June 2002 for the 49 largest stocks of the National Stock Exchange which has the highest trade volume in India. We find the surprising result that P(g) decays as an exponential function P(g) ~ exp [ - βg] with a characteristic decay scale β = 1.51 ± 0.05 for the negative tail and β = 1.34 ± 0.04 for the positive tail. The exponential function is significantly different from the power law function observed for highly developed economies. Thus, we conclude that the stock market of the less highly developed economy of India belongs to a different class from that of highly developed countries.

  6. Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using OpenADR

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Joyce Jihyun; Kiliccote, Sila

    2012-06-01

    In New York State, the default electricity pricing for large customers is Mandatory Hourly Pricing (MHP), which is charged based on zonal day-ahead market price for energy. With MHP, retail customers can adjust their building load to an economically optimal level according to hourly electricity prices. Yet, many customers seek alternative pricing options such as fixed rates through retail access for their electricity supply. Open Automated Demand Response (OpenADR) is an XML (eXtensible Markup Language) based information exchange model that communicates price and reliability information. It allows customers to evaluate hourly prices and provide demand response in an automated fashion to minimize electricity costs. This document shows how OpenADR can support MHP and facilitate price responsive demand for large commercial customers in New York City.

  7. Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

    2015-03-01

    Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

  8. Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

    2012-06-01

    An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

  9. Fish market prices drive overfishing of the ‘big ones’

    PubMed Central

    Polymeros, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between fish market price and body size has not been explored much in fisheries science. Here, the mean market prices and fish body size were collected in order to examine the hypothesis that large fish, both among- and within-species, are being selectively targeted by fisheries because they may yield greater profit. Trophic levels, vulnerability to fishing and global landings were also collected because these variables may also be related to the market fish price. These relationships were examined using generalized additive models (GAM), which showed that, among species, fish market price was positively dependent on maximum total length (P = 0.0024) and negatively on landings (P = 0.0006), whereas it was independent of trophic level (P > 0.05) and vulnerability to fishing (P > 0.05). When the fish price vs. size relationship was tested within-species, large individuals were consistently attaining higher market prices compared to their medium and small-sized counterparts. We conclude that the selective removal of the larger fish, which is driven by their market price and to a lesser extent by their availability, may contribute to their overfishing. PMID:25392754

  10. Market review - Market values summary/August market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-09-01

    This article is the August 1995 uranium market review. During this reporting period, there were three transactions in the long-term concentrates sector, no transactions in the UF6 market, and limited activity in the spot conversion market and the enrichment services market. Active supply rose, as did active demand. Prices were stable to slightly increasing.

  11. Analysis of the temporal properties of price shock sequences in crude oil markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying; Huang, Wei-qiang

    2014-01-01

    As one of the fundamental energy sources and important chemical raw materials, crude oil is crucially important to every country. Especially, the price shock of crude oil will bring about hidden dangers in energy security and economic security. Therefore, investigating the dynamics of frequent price shocks of crude oil markets seems to be crucial and necessary. In order to make the conclusions more reliable and valid, we use two different representations of the price shocks (inter-event times and series of counts) to study the temporal properties of price shock sequences in crude oil markets, such as coefficient of variation, Allan Factor, Fano Factors, Rescaled Range analysis and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We find evidence that the time dynamics of the price shock sequences can be considered as a fractal process with a high degree of time-clusterization of the events. It could give us some useful information to better understand the nature and dynamics of crude oil markets.

  12. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... timely submitted by SBA. (2) The procuring activity must base the estimate of a current fair market price... ADMINISTRATION 8(a) BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT/SMALL DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS STATUS DETERMINATIONS 8(a)...

  13. U.S. Television Programs in the International Market: Unfair Pricing?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoskins, Colin; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Provides a microeconomic analysis of United States (U.S.) television program export prices. Finds that U.S. producers, acting like a dominant firm, are responsible for establishing the general level of foreign program prices in each national market. (MS)

  14. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuen, Ainslie; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

    2005-08-01

    The NYSE and NASDAQ stock markets have very different structures and there is continuing controversy over whether differences in stock price behaviour are due to market structure or company characteristics. As the influence of market structure on stock prices may be obscured by exogenous factors such as demand and supply, we hypothesize that modulation of the flow of transactions due to market operations may carry a stronger imprint of the internal market mechanism. We analyse times between consecutive transactions (ITT) for NYSE and NASDAQ stocks, and we relate the dynamical properties of the ITT with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We find a robust scale-invariant temporal organisation in the ITT of stocks which is independent of individual company characteristics and industry sector, but which depends on market structure. We find that stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit stronger correlations in their transaction timing within a trading day, compared with NYSE stocks. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing within a trading day, after the move, suggesting influences of market structure. Surprisingly, we also observe that stronger power-law correlations in the ITT are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of ITT and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ, we demonstrate that the higher correlations we find in ITT for NASDAQ stocks are matched by higher correlations in absolute price returns and by higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behaviour through information contained in transaction timing.

  15. Measuring volatility in the Nordic spot electricity market using Recurrence Quantification Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strozzi, F.; Gutiérrez, E.; Noè, C.; Rossi, T.; Serati, M.; Zaldívar, J. M.

    2008-10-01

    In this work, we have applied Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA)to data sets taken from the Nordic spot electricity market. Our main interest was in trying to correlate their volatility with variables obtained from the quantification of recurrence plots (RP). For this reason we have based our analysis on known historical events: the evolution of the Nord Pool market and climatic factors, i.e. dry and wet years, and we have compared several dispersion measures with RQA measures in correspondence of these events. The analysis suggests that two RQA measures: DET and LAM can be used as a measure of the inverse of the volatility. The main advantage of using DET and LAM is that these measures provide also information about the underlying dynamics. This fact is shown using shuffled and linear Gaussian surrogates of the real time series.

  16. Market interdependence among commodity prices based on information transmission on the Internet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Qiang; Guo, Jian-Feng

    2015-05-01

    Human behaviour on the Internet has become a synchro-projection of real society. In this paper, we introduce the public concern derived from query volumes on the Web to empirically analyse the influence of information on commodity markets (e.g., crude oil, heating oil, corn and gold) using multivariate GARCH models based on dynamic conditional correlations. The analysis found that the changes of public concern on the Internet can well depict the changes of market prices, as the former has significant Granger causality effects on market prices. The findings indicate that the information of external shocks to commodity markets could be transmitted quickly, and commodity markets easily absorb the public concern of the information-sensitive traders. Finally, the conditional correlation among commodity prices varies dramatically over time.

  17. CONCENTRATION AND DRUG PRICES IN THE RETAIL MARKET FOR MALARIA TREATMENT IN RURAL TANZANIA

    PubMed Central

    GOODMAN, CATHERINE; KACHUR, S. PATRICK; ABDULLA, SALIM; BLOLAND, PETER; MILLS, ANNE

    2009-01-01

    SUMMARY The impact of market concentration has been little studied in markets for ambulatory care in the developing world, where the retail sector often accounts for a high proportion of treatments. This study begins to address this gap through an analysis of the consumer market for malaria treatment in rural areas of three districts in Tanzania. We developed methods for investigating market definition, sales volumes and concentration, and used these to explore the relationship between antimalarial retail prices and competition. The market was strongly geographically segmented and highly concentrated in terms of antimalarial sales. Antimalarial prices were positively associated with market concentration. High antimalarial prices were likely to be an important factor in the low proportion of care seekers obtaining appropriate treatment. Retail sector distribution of subsidised antimalarials has been proposed to increase the coverage of effective treatment, but this analysis indicates that local market power may prevent such subsidies from being passed on to rural customers. Policymakers should consider the potential to maintain lower retail prices by decreasing concentration among antimalarial providers and recommending retail price levels. PMID:19301420

  18. Long scale evolution of a nonlinear stochastic dynamic system for modeling market price bubbles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiselev, S. A.; Phillips, Andy; Gabitov, I.

    2000-07-01

    This Letter investigates the stochastic dynamics of a simplified agent-based microscopic model describing stock market evolution. Our mathematical model includes a stochastic market and a sealed-bid double auction. The dynamics of the model are determined by the game of two types of traders: (i) `intelligent' traders whose strategy is based on nonlinear technical data analysis 1 and (ii) `random' traders that act without a consistent strategy. We demonstrate the effect of time-scale separations on the market dynamics. We study the characteristics of the market relaxation in response to perturbations caused by large cash flows generated between these two groups of traders. We also demonstrate that our model exhibits the formation of a price bubble 2 and the subsequent transition to a bear market 3. Bear market - a macroscopically long stage of a market evolution when the stock price declines significantly, 15% or more.

  19. World oil market outlook: recent history and forecasts of world oil prices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-08-01

    Recent world oil price trends and pricing behavior by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are examined. An outlook for consumption, production and prices in the world oil market, both for the short-term horizon through 1982 and for the midterm period from 1985 through 1995 is presented. A historical review focuses on OPEC activity in the period from January 1980 to May 1981. Several sensitivity analyses and the impact of supply disruptions are used to determine projections. The appendix provides data on world crude oil prices for each of 23 countries for January, May, and June of 1980 and May of 1981. 22 tables, 9 figures.

  20. Impact of stock market structure on intertrade time and price dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization-a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  1. Impact of Stock Market Structure on Intertrade Time and Price Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Ivanov, Plamen Ch.; Yuen, Ainslie; Perakakis, Pandelis

    2014-01-01

    We analyse times between consecutive transactions for a diverse group of stocks registered on the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, and we relate the dynamical properties of the intertrade times with those of the corresponding price fluctuations. We report that market structure strongly impacts the scale-invariant temporal organisation in the transaction timing of stocks, which we have observed to have long-range power-law correlations. Specifically, we find that, compared to NYSE stocks, stocks registered on the NASDAQ exhibit significantly stronger correlations in their transaction timing on scales within a trading day. Further, we find that companies that transfer from the NASDAQ to the NYSE show a reduction in the correlation strength of transaction timing on scales within a trading day, indicating influences of market structure. We also report a persistent decrease in correlation strength of intertrade times with increasing average intertrade time and with corresponding decrease in companies' market capitalization–a trend which is less pronounced for NASDAQ stocks. Surprisingly, we observe that stronger power-law correlations in intertrade times are coupled with stronger power-law correlations in absolute price returns and higher price volatility, suggesting a strong link between the dynamical properties of intertrade times and the corresponding price fluctuations over a broad range of time scales. Comparing the NYSE and NASDAQ markets, we demonstrate that the stronger correlations we find in intertrade times for NASDAQ stocks are associated with stronger correlations in absolute price returns and with higher volatility, suggesting that market structure may affect price behavior through information contained in transaction timing. These findings do not support the hypothesis of universal scaling behavior in stock dynamics that is independent of company characteristics and stock market structure. Further, our results have implications for utilising transaction timing

  2. Introducing a price variation limiter mechanism into a behavioral financial market model.

    PubMed

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-08-01

    In the present paper, we consider a nonlinear financial market model in which, in order to decrease the complexity of the dynamics and to achieve price stabilization, we introduce a price variation limiter mechanism, which in each period bounds the price variation so that the current price is forced to belong to a certain interval determined by the price realization in the previous period. More precisely, we introduce such mechanism into a financial market model in which the price dynamics are described by a sigmoidal price adjustment mechanism characterized by the presence of two asymptotes that bound the price variation and thus the dynamics. We show that the presence of our asymptotes prevents divergence and negativity issues. Moreover, we prove that the basins of attraction are complicated only under suitable conditions on the parameters and that chaos arises just when the price limiters are loose enough. On the other hand, for some suitable parameter configurations, we detect multistability phenomena characterized by the presence of up to three coexisting attractors. PMID:26328563

  3. Introducing a price variation limiter mechanism into a behavioral financial market model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2015-08-01

    In the present paper, we consider a nonlinear financial market model in which, in order to decrease the complexity of the dynamics and to achieve price stabilization, we introduce a price variation limiter mechanism, which in each period bounds the price variation so that the current price is forced to belong to a certain interval determined by the price realization in the previous period. More precisely, we introduce such mechanism into a financial market model in which the price dynamics are described by a sigmoidal price adjustment mechanism characterized by the presence of two asymptotes that bound the price variation and thus the dynamics. We show that the presence of our asymptotes prevents divergence and negativity issues. Moreover, we prove that the basins of attraction are complicated only under suitable conditions on the parameters and that chaos arises just when the price limiters are loose enough. On the other hand, for some suitable parameter configurations, we detect multistability phenomena characterized by the presence of up to three coexisting attractors.

  4. Course Length Versus Course Price: Marketing Factors in Program Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    Recent program planning literature involving adult education has attempted to draw upon techniques from marketing management. Most of the literature has, however, not explored the relationship between adult education program decision needs and fundamental marketing concepts. Adult educators and marketing managers are conducting similar daily…

  5. Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market.

    PubMed

    Kouwenberg, Roy; Zwinkels, Remco C J

    2015-01-01

    Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news. PMID:26107740

  6. Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news. PMID:26107740

  7. Want to Put an End to Capacity Markets? Think Real-Time Pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Reeder, Mark

    2006-07-15

    The amount of generation capacity that must be installed to meet resource adequacy requirements often causes the energy market to be suppressed to the point that it fails to produce sufficient revenues to attract new entry. A significant expansion in the use of real-time pricing can, over time, cause the energy market to become a more bountiful source of revenues for generators, allowing the elimination of the capacity market. (author)

  8. Market review - Market values summary/July market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-01

    This article is the July 1995 uranium market review. Data for current uranium market is presented, and a summary of recent transactions is also given. During this reporting period, there was one concentrate deal, two transactions in the long-term natural uranium market and conversion market, and three spot market transactions in the enrichment market. Active uranium supply fell, as did demand, and prices in all sectors were relatively stable.

  9. What causes oil price shocks

    SciTech Connect

    Bohi, D.R.

    1983-01-01

    It is common, though debatable, to model the world oil market as some form of a producer cartel that administers oil prices. In this context, the central question is what motivates the cartel to change prices and output. The answer is only partially given by presuming that producers seek to optimize the stream of earnings over time. Aside from complexities introduced by differences in discount rates and objective functions across producers, there is still the question of determining what the market will bear. A simple and popular explanation is that the cartel has been guided by changes in prices in spot markets. In this report, the author casts doubt on the importance of spot market prices in determining OPEC selling prices, and indeed on the proposition that OPEC price increases are administered rather than market induced. These observations are drawn from an examination of inventory and price behavior during the after the price shock of 1979. Although an alternative explanation of the 1979 experience is advanced, the primary message of this paper is that caution is advisable in accepting prevailing interpretations of how the market works. The ready corollary of this conclusion is that policies for mitigating harm during a disruption should be robust across a range of possible formulation processes. 14 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  10. The price impact asymmetry of institutional trading in the Chinese stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin

    2012-04-01

    The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market in 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact asymmetry on the market condition. For most of the stocks, institutional sales have a larger price impact than institutional purchases, and a larger impact of institutional purchases exists only in a few stocks with primarily increasing tendencies. We further study the mean return of trades surrounding institutional transactions, and find that the asymmetric behavior also exists before and after institutional transactions. A new variable is proposed to investigate the order book structure, and it can partially explain the price impact of institutional transactions. A linear regression for the price impact of institutional transactions further confirms our finding that institutional sales primarily have a larger price impact than institutional purchases in the bearish year 2003.

  11. How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.; Rivera-Castro, Miguel A.; Miranda, José G. V.; García-Rubio, Raquel

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we analyse price fluctuations with the aim of measuring how long the market takes to adjust prices to weak-form efficiency, i.e., how long it takes for prices to adjust to a fractional Brownian motion with a Hurst exponent of 0.5. The Hurst exponent is estimated for different time horizons using detrended fluctuation analysis-a method suitable for non-stationary series with trends-in order to identify at which time scale the Hurst exponent is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Using high-frequency share price, exchange rate and stock data, we show how price dynamics exhibited important deviations from efficiency for time periods of up to 15 min; thereafter, price dynamics was consistent with a geometric Brownian motion. The intraday behaviour of the series also indicated that price dynamics at trade opening and close was hardly consistent with efficiency, which would enable investors to exploit price deviations from fundamental values. This result is consistent with intraday volume, volatility and transaction time duration patterns.

  12. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  13. A study of correlations between crude oil spot and futures markets: A rolling sample test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Li; Wan, Jieqiu

    2011-10-01

    In this article, we investigate the asymmetries of exceedance correlations and cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures markets. First, employing the test statistic proposed by Hong et al. [Asymmetries in stock returns: statistical tests and economic evaluation, Review of Financial Studies 20 (2007) 1547-1581], we find that the exceedance correlations were overall symmetric. However, the results from rolling windows show that some occasional events could induce the significant asymmetries of the exceedance correlations. Second, employing the test statistic proposed by Podobnik et al. [Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches, European Physics Journal B 71 (2009) 243-250], we find that the cross-correlations were significant even for large lagged orders. Using the detrended cross-correlation analysis proposed by Podobnik and Stanley [Detrended cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing two nonstationary time series, Physics Review Letters 100 (2008) 084102], we find that the cross-correlations were weakly persistent and were stronger between spot and futures contract with larger maturity. Our results from rolling sample test also show the apparent effects of the exogenous events. Additionally, we have some relevant discussions on the obtained evidence.

  14. 7 CFR 1221.16 - Net market price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... AND ORDERS; MISCELLANEOUS COMMODITIES), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SORGHUM PROMOTION, RESEARCH, AND INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Definitions § 1221.16 Net market...

  15. Pharma Pricing & Market Access Europe 2016--Health Network Communications' Tenth Annual Conference (February 23-25, 2016--London, UK).

    PubMed

    D'Souza, P

    2016-03-01

    Tighter national budgets and escalating drug prices continue to present challenges for pharmaceutical market access strategies and societal cost of care. As pharmaceutical companies and medical governmental advisory organizations enter tougher negotiations, hospital trusts and other dispensary firms face barriers to receiving the best medical treatment, and as a result patient access is limited. The 2016 HealthNetwork Communications' Pharma Pricing & Market Access Europe meeting brought together pharmaceutical, medical governmental advisory and stakeholders and market access/pricing consultants, to encourage discussions and negotiations into how to improve the drug pricing system and consequential market access strategies while achieving the respective reimbursement and affordability objectives. PMID:27186595

  16. Information-driven trade and price-volume relationship in artificial stock markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xinghua; Liu, Xin; Liang, Xiaobei

    2015-07-01

    The positive relation between stock price changes and trading volume (price-volume relationship) as a stylized fact has attracted significant interest among finance researchers and investment practitioners. However, until now, consensus has not been reached regarding the causes of the relationship based on real market data because extracting valuable variables (such as information-driven trade volume) from real data is difficult. This lack of general consensus motivates us to develop a simple agent-based computational artificial stock market where extracting the necessary variables is easy. Based on this model and its artificial data, our tests have found that the aggressive trading style of informed agents can produce a price-volume relationship. Therefore, the information spreading process is not a necessary condition for producing price-volume relationship.

  17. Marketing environment dynamics and implications for pricing strategies: the case of home health care.

    PubMed

    Ponsford, B J; Barlow, D

    1999-01-01

    This research reviews the factors affecting the pricing or rate schedules of home health care agencies. A large number of factors affect costs and thus rate structures. The major factors include reimbursement structures with accompanying discount structures, administrative burdens, and risks. Channel issues include bargaining power, competition, and size. Staffing issues affect pricing and product through the provider level, productivity, and quality outcomes. Physician and patient issues include quality concerns and choices. These factors are discussed in light of overall marketing strategy and the interaction of pricing with other marketing controllables such as product, place/distribution, and promotion. Economic and accounting principles are also reviewed with consideration to understanding direct and indirect costs in order to enable negotiators to effectively price health care services. PMID:10623194

  18. Association of market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices: 1999 through 2001.

    PubMed

    McCue, Michael J; Kim, Tae Hyun

    2005-01-01

    Since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, there has been a decline in the number of hospital acquisitions. Using data from 1999 through 2001, we examined the relationship between market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices. Using an ordinary least squares regression model, we found that acquiring multihospital systems paid a higher price for larger hospitals with fewer unoccupied beds and greater profitability. Although only marginally significant, we also found that acquiring hospital systems paid a higher purchase price for hospitals in near urban markets and for hospitals located in the Central region of the United States. From a policy standpoint, we found no significant difference in the purchase price paid between for-profit and nonprofit hospitals. PMID:15773251

  19. Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

    PubMed

    Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  20. Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

    PubMed Central

    Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

    2013-01-01

    We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

  1. Multifractality of sectoral price indices: Hurst signature analysis of Cantillon effects in disequilibrium factor markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulligan, Robert F.

    2014-06-01

    This paper presents Hurst exponent signatures from time series of aggregate price indices for the US over the 1975-2011 time period. Though all highly aggregated, these indices include both broad measures of consumer and producer prices. The constellation of prices evolves as a complex system throughout processes of production and distribution, culminating in the final delivery of output to consumers. Massive feedback characterizes this system, where the demand for consumable output determines the demand for the inputs used to produce it, and supply scarcities for the necessary inputs in turn determine the supply of the final product. Prices in both factor and output markets are jointly determined by interdependent supply and demand conditions. Fractal examination of the interplay among market prices would be of interest regardless, but added interest arises from the consideration of how these markets respond to external shocks over the business cycle, particularly monetary expansion. Because the initial impact of monetary injection is localized in specific sectors, the way the impact on prices diffuses throughout the economy is of special interest.

  2. Pricing of range accrual swap in the quantum finance Libor Market Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Tang, Pan; Cao, Yang

    2014-05-01

    We study the range accrual swap in the quantum finance formulation of the Libor Market Model (LMM). It is shown that the formulation can exactly price the path dependent instrument. An approximate price is obtained as an expansion in the volatility of Libor. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to study the nonlinear domain of the model and determine the range of validity of the approximate formula. The price of accrual swap is analyzed by generating daily sample values by simulating a two dimension Gaussian quantum field.

  3. The impact of competition on quality and prices in the English care homes market

    PubMed Central

    Forder, Julien; Allan, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the impact of competition on quality and price in the English care/nursing homes market. Considering the key institutional features, we use a theoretical model to assess the conditions under which further competition could increase or reduce quality. A dataset comprising the population of 10,000 care homes was used. We constructed distance/travel-time weighted competition measures. Instrumental variable estimations, used to account for the endogeneity of competition, showed quality and price were reduced by greater competition. Further analyses suggested that the negative quality effect worked through the effect on price – higher competition reduces revenue which pushes down quality. PMID:24487075

  4. Structural changes in the German pharmaceutical market: price setting mechanisms based on the early benefit evaluation.

    PubMed

    Henschke, Cornelia; Sundmacher, Leonie; Busse, Reinhard

    2013-03-01

    In the past, free price setting mechanisms in Germany led to high prices of patented pharmaceuticals and to increasing expenditures in the pharmaceutical sector. In order to control patented pharmaceutical prices and to curb increasing pharmaceutical spending, the Act for Restructuring the Pharmaceutical Market in Statutory Health Insurance (AMNOG) came into effect on 1st January 2011. In a structured dossier, pharmaceutical manufacturers have to demonstrate the additional therapeutic benefit of the newly approved pharmaceutical compared to its appropriate comparator. According to the level of additional benefit, pharmaceuticals will be subject to price negotiations between the Federal Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds and the pharmaceutical company concerned (or assigned to a reference price group in case of no additional benefit). Therefore, the health care reform is a first step to decision making based on "value for money". The process of price setting based on early benefit evaluation has an impact on the German as well as the European pharmaceutical markets. Therefore, these structural changes in Germany are of importance for pricing decisions in many European countries both from a political point of view and for strategic planning for pharmaceutical manufacturers, which may have an effect on insured patients' access to pharmaceuticals. PMID:23339876

  5. Determining the Effects on Residential Electricity Prices and Carbon Emissions of Electricity Market Restructuring in Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahangir, Junaid Bin

    When electricity restructuring initiatives were introduced in Alberta, and finalized with the institution of retail electricity market competition in 2001, it was argued that the changes would deliver lower electricity prices to residential consumers. However, residential electricity prices in Alberta increased dramatically in 2001, and have never returned to their pre-restructuring levels. Proponents of restructuring argue that electricity prices would have been even higher under continued regulation, citing the effect of considerably higher natural gas prices and the roles of other variables. However, many Alberta residential electricity consumers tend to attribute their higher electricity prices to factors such as market power and manipulation associated with restructuring. Since the effects of restructuring on electricity prices cannot be evaluated by simply comparing prices before and after it occurred, the main objective of this thesis is to determine what electricity prices would have been under continued regulation, and to compare them with what was actually observed. To determine these counterfactual electricity prices, a structural model of the determinants of Alberta residential electricity prices is developed, estimated for the prerestructuring period, and used to forecast (counterfactual) prices in the postrestructuring period. However, in forming these forecasts it is necessary to separately account for changes in explanatory variables that could be viewed as occurring due to the restructuring (endogenous) from those changes that would Since the effects of restructuring on electricity prices cannot be evaluated by simply comparing prices before and after it occurred, the main objective of this thesis is to determine what electricity prices would have been under continued regulation, and to compare them with what was actually observed. To determine these counterfactual electricity prices, a structural model of the determinants of Alberta residential

  6. 7 CFR 5.2 - Marketing season average price data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... citations affecting § 5.2 see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the Finding Aids section... market Artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, broccoli, cabbage, cantaloupe, carrots, cauliflower,...

  7. 7 CFR 5.2 - Marketing season average price data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... citations affecting § 5.2 see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the Finding Aids section... market Artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, broccoli, cabbage, cantaloupe, carrots, cauliflower,...

  8. 7 CFR 5.2 - Marketing season average price data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... citations affecting § 5.2 see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the Finding Aids section... market Artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, broccoli, cabbage, cantaloupe, carrots, cauliflower,...

  9. 7 CFR 5.2 - Marketing season average price data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... citations affecting § 5.2 see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the Finding Aids section... market Artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, broccoli, cabbage, cantaloupe, carrots, cauliflower,...

  10. 7 CFR 5.2 - Marketing season average price data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... citations affecting § 5.2 see the List of CFR Sections Affected, which appears in the Finding Aids section... market Artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, broccoli, cabbage, cantaloupe, carrots, cauliflower,...

  11. Chicago's water market: Dynamics of demand, prices and scarcity rents

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ipe, V.C.; Bhagwat, S.B.

    2002-01-01

    Chicago and its suburbs are experiencing an increasing demand for water from a growing population and economy and may experience water scarcity in the near future. The Chicago metropolitan area has nearly depleted its groundwater resources to a point where interstate conflicts with Wisconsin could accompany an increased reliance on those sources. Further, the withdrawals from Lake Michigan is limited by the Supreme Court decree. The growing demand and indications of possible scarcity suggest a need to reexamine the pricing policies and the dynamics of demand. The study analyses the demand for water and develops estimates of scarcity rents for water in Chicago. The price and income elasticities computed at the means are -0.002 and 0.0002 respectively. The estimated scarcity rents ranges from $0.98 to $1.17 per thousand gallons. The results indicate that the current prices do not fully account for the scarcity rents and suggest a current rate with in the range $1.53 to $1.72 per thousand gallons.

  12. Predicting inter-season price jumps in the market for temporary water allocations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plummer, Jonathan; Schreider, Sergei

    2015-06-01

    The market for temporary water allocations in the Northern Victoria Regulated river system has matured to the point where new instruments to manage risk can be of benefit to water users. One of these instruments could be a series of option contracts issued by the Water Authority. However a serious impediment to the introduction of options is the variation in prices across seasons. Prices jump between the end of one season and the beginning of the next mean that appropriate option strike prices cannot be determined until a period of trading in the new season allows price discovery to take place. This prevents an options market being available at the beginning of the season when it is most useful to irrigators. In this paper we look at winter rainfall for the town of Jamieson, upstream of Lake Eildon and the volume of water in Lake Eildon as predictors of the price of temporary water allocations at the beginning of the irrigation season. We develop a climate driven regression model which allows us to link the inter-seasonal jumps with the biophysical parameters of the system. By better understanding the factors dictating the size of the price jumps between seasons options can be developed that are not restricted to the current season. We also consider the implications of the infrastructure upgrades currently underway and recent policy changes on the market for temporary water allocations. The carryover policy which allows water to be kept for use in subsequent seasons, and the reserve policy, which is designed to allow the delivery of initial allocations and water carried over at the start of the irrigation season each year, are two recent policy innovations. These policies should smooth prices and reduce the jump in prices that have been seen between irrigation seasons.

  13. The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

    SciTech Connect

    Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.; Fisseha, Kibret S.

    2014-10-14

    In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the US market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.

  14. Customer Strategies for Responding to Day-Ahead Market HourlyElectricity Pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Boisvert, Dick; Cappers, Peter; Pratt, Donna; Butkins, Kim

    2005-08-25

    Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated as an economically efficient means to send price signals to customers to promote demand response (DR) (Borenstein 2002, Borenstein 2005, Ruff 2002). However, limited information exists that can be used to judge how effectively RTP actually induces DR, particularly in the context of restructured electricity markets. This report describes the second phase of a study of how large, non-residential customers' adapted to default-service day-ahead hourly pricing. The customers are located in upstate New York and served under Niagara Mohawk, A National Grid Company (NMPC)'s SC-3A rate class. The SC-3A tariff is a type of RTP that provides firm, day-ahead notice of hourly varying prices indexed to New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead market prices. The study was funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC)'s PIER program through the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC). NMPC's is the first and longest-running default-service RTP tariff implemented in the context of retail competition. The mix of NMPC's large customers exposed to day-ahead hourly prices is roughly 30% industrial, 25% commercial and 45% institutional. They have faced periods of high prices during the study period (2000-2004), thereby providing an opportunity to assess their response to volatile hourly prices. The nature of the SC-3A default service attracted competitive retailers offering a wide array of pricing and hedging options, and customers could also participate in demand response programs implemented by NYISO. The first phase of this study examined SC-3A customers' satisfaction, hedging choices and price response through in-depth customer market research and a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand model (Goldman et al. 2004). This second phase was undertaken to answer questions that remained unresolved and to quantify price response to a higher level of granularity. We accomplished these objectives with a second customer

  15. Uranium market enters slow summer period as enrichment market heats up. [Uranium market overview - May 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-06-01

    Prices slipped in the restricted and unrestricted uranium markets. Prices in the restricted market remained above the $10-benchmark, with uranium trading in the relatively narrow range of $10.05 to $10.20 per lb U3O8. Meanwhile, NUKEM detected a lowering and widening of the range in the unrestricted market; $7.10 to $7.45 per lb U3O8 was the order of the day there. The other notable feature of recent price movements has been the aggressive competition in the US spot conversion market. Many analysts have noted favorable prices for UF6 relative to components in recent market activity. Summer doldrums appear to be setting in. May and a correspondingly small number of offers are outstanding as of the end of the month. Last month NUKEM inaugurated a spot conversion price range and asked for readers' views. Those expressing an opinion were unanimous; NUKEM will publish both its longstanding estimate of new contract prices as well as the spot range. Some noted the somewhat wide range of last month's spot conversion prices. In explanation, we note that this figure encompasses activity over the full month and in the US as well as the non-US markets. Thus, it resembles the spot SWU range.

  16. Exponential model for option prices: Application to the Brazilian market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Carvalho, J. A.; Vasconcelos, G. L.

    2016-03-01

    In this paper we report an empirical analysis of the Ibovespa index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange and its respective option contracts. We compare the empirical data on the Ibovespa options with two option pricing models, namely the standard Black-Scholes model and an empirical model that assumes that the returns are exponentially distributed. It is found that at times near the option expiration date the exponential model performs better than the Black-Scholes model, in the sense that it fits the empirical data better than does the latter model.

  17. Validity of urinary monoamine assay sales under the “spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model”

    PubMed Central

    Hinz, Marty; Stein, Alvin; Uncini, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Spot baseline urinary monoamine assays have been used in medicine for over 50 years as a screening test for monoamine-secreting tumors, such as pheochromocytoma and carcinoid syndrome. In these disease states, when the result of a spot baseline monoamine assay is above the specific value set by the laboratory, it is an indication to obtain a 24-hour urine sample to make a definitive diagnosis. There are no defined applications where spot baseline urinary monoamine assays can be used to diagnose disease or other states directly. No peer-reviewed published original research exists which demonstrates that these assays are valid in the treatment of individual patients in the clinical setting. Since 2001, urinary monoamine assay sales have been promoted for numerous applications under the “spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model”. There is no published peer-reviewed original research that defines the scientific foundation upon which the claims for these assays are made. On the contrary, several articles have been published that discredit various aspects of the model. To fill the void, this manuscript is a comprehensive review of the scientific foundation and claims put forth by laboratories selling urinary monoamine assays under the spot baseline urinary neurotransmitter testing marketing model. PMID:21912487

  18. Stochastic processes in the social sciences: Markets, prices and wealth distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romero, Natalia E.

    The present work uses statistical mechanics tools to investigate the dynamics of markets, prices, trades and wealth distribution. We studied the evolution of market dynamics in different stages of historical development by analyzing commodity prices from two distinct periods ancient Babylon, and medieval and early modern England. We find that the first-digit distributions of both Babylon and England commodity prices follow Benfords law, indicating that the data represent empirical observations typically arising from a free market. Further, we find that the normalized prices of both Babylon and England agricultural commodities are characterized by stretched exponential distributions, and exhibit persistent correlations of a power law type over long periods of up to several centuries, in contrast to contemporary markets. Our findings suggest that similar market interactions may underlie the dynamics of ancient agricultural commodity prices, and that these interactions may remain stable across centuries. To further investigate the dynamics of markets we present the analogy between transfers of money between individuals and the transfer of energy through particle collisions by means of the kinetic theory of gases. We introduce a theoretical framework of how the micro rules of trading lead to the emergence of income and wealth distribution. Particularly, we study the effects of different types of distribution of savings/investments among individuals in a society and different welfare/subsidies redistribution policies. Results show that while considering savings propensities the models approach empirical distributions of wealth quite well the effect of redistribution better captures specific features of the distributions which earlier models failed to do; moreover the models still preserve the exponential decay observed in empirical income distributions reported by tax data and surveys.

  19. Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernaschi, M.; Torosantucci, L.; Uboldi, A.

    2007-03-01

    We describe a simple but effective method for the estimation of the market price of risk. The basic idea is to compare the results obtained by following two different approaches in the application of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model. In the first case, we apply the non-linear least squares method to cross sectional data (i.e., all rates of a single day). In the second case, we consider the short rate obtained by means of the first procedure as a proxy of the real market short rate. Starting from this new proxy, we evaluate the parameters of the CIR model by means of martingale estimation techniques. The estimate of the market price of risk is provided by comparing results obtained with these two techniques, since this approach makes possible to isolate the market price of risk and evaluate, under the Local Expectations Hypothesis, the risk premium given by the market for different maturities. As a test case, we apply the method to data of the European Fixed Income Market.

  20. Optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madrigal Martinez, Marcelino

    Vertically integrated electric power systems extensively use optimization models and solution techniques to guide their optimal operation and planning. The advent of electric power systems re-structuring has created needs for new optimization tools and the revision of the inherited ones from the vertical integration era into the market environment. This thesis presents further developments on the use of optimization models and techniques for implementation and pricing of primary electricity markets. New models, solution approaches, and price setting alternatives are proposed. Three different modeling groups are studied. The first modeling group considers simplified continuous and discrete models for power pool auctions driven by central-cost minimization. The direct solution of the dual problems, and the use of a Branch-and-Bound algorithm to solve the primal, allows to identify the effects of disequilibrium, and different price setting alternatives over the existence of multiple solutions. It is shown that particular pricing rules worsen the conflict of interest that arise when multiple solutions exist under disequilibrium. A price-setting alternative based on dual variables is shown to diminish such conflict. The second modeling group considers the unit commitment problem. An interior-point/cutting-plane method is proposed for the solution of the dual problem. The new method has better convergence characteristics and does not suffer from the parameter tuning drawback as previous methods The robustness characteristics of the interior-point/cutting-plane method, combined with a non-uniform price setting alternative, show that the conflict of interest is diminished when multiple near optimal solutions exist. The non-uniform price setting alternative is compared to a classic average pricing rule. The last modeling group concerns to a new type of linear network-constrained clearing system models for daily markets for power and spinning reserve. A new model and

  1. Utility cost accounting and market pricing of electricity at the Naval Postgraduate School. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Murdter, M.J.

    1994-06-01

    This thesis demonstrates that significant cost savings may be realized at the Naval Postgraduate School by accounting for utilities costs with market pricing methods instead of engineering estimates of consumption for nonmetered users and by streamlining the current invoice processing procedures. Electricity demand curves for each element of the supplier rate structure were constructed from recent consumption data and price elasticities of demand from the literature. The deadweight losses from overconsumption were calculated and compared to the costs of installing meters capable of recording time-of-use and peak demand. The current invoice processing procedures were analyzed and spreadsheet tools were developed to streamline the processes and avoid interest charges from late payment. The results of the research indicate that market pricing of electricity and accelerated invoice processing would result in significant savings to the Naval Postgraduate School. Utilities, Electricity, Deadweight loss.

  2. Natural Gas Marketer Prices and Sales To Residential and Commercial Customers: 2002-2005

    EIA Publications

    2007-01-01

    This report compares residential and commercial prices collected from natural gas marketers and local distribution companies in Maryland, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania from 2002-2005 and gives the history and status of natural gas choice programs in those states.

  3. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? 124.511 Section 124.511 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 8(a) BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT/SMALL DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS STATUS DETERMINATIONS 8(a)...

  4. 13 CFR 124.511 - How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false How is fair market price determined for an 8(a) contract? 124.511 Section 124.511 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 8(a) BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT/SMALL DISADVANTAGED BUSINESS STATUS DETERMINATIONS 8(a)...

  5. 78 FR 46799 - Use of Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-02

    ... Market Economy Input Prices in Nonmarket Economy Proceedings, 77 FR 38553 (June 28, 2012) (``Proposed..., 71 FR 61716 (October 19, 2006). \\3\\ See Countervailing Duty Investigation of Coated Free Sheet Paper... Republic of China; Final Results of Antidumping Duty Administrative Review, 63 FR 63834, 63838 (Nov....

  6. Collective Behavior of Stock Prices as a Precursor to Market Crash

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maskawa, J.

    We study precursors to the global market crash that occurred onall main stock exchanges throughout the world in October 2008 about three weeks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on 15 September. We examine the collective behavior of stock returns and analyze the market mode, which is a market-wide collective mode, with constituent issues of the FTSE 100 index listed on the London Stock Exchange. Before the market crash, a sharp rise in a measure of the collective behavior was observed. It was shown to be associated with news including the words ``financial crisis". They did not impact stock prices severely alone, but they exacerbated the pessimistic mood that prevailed among stock market participants. Such news increased after the Lehman shock preceding the market crash. The variance increased along with the cumulative amount of news according to a power law.

  7. Tannin profile of different Monastrell wines and its relation to projected market prices.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Plaza, Encarna; Olmos, Oscar; Bautista-Ortín, Ana Belén

    2016-08-01

    This study focuses on the differences or similarities in tannin composition and concentration in Monastrell wines from different wineries from the same geographic area and, within each winery, from wines elaborated based on different projected market prices, to determine whether there is any relationship between the wine tannin composition and the projected price. The tannin composition of the different wines, all of them analyzed at the same point during winemaking, indicated that those elaborated as premium wines presented higher phenol and tannin contents. The mean degree of polymerization of these wines was also positively related with the projected price, which agreed with the results obtained by size exclusion chromatography, that showed that wines with high projected prices had a higher proportion of polymeric tannins, suggesting that techniques favoring the extraction of skin tannins were mostly used in those wines projected as premium wines, probably looking for greater mouthfeel complexity. PMID:26988530

  8. Trends in water market activity and price in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Thomas C.

    2006-09-01

    Over 2000 water market transactions that occurred in the western United States from 1990 to 2003 were examined to learn who sold to whom and for what purpose, how much water was involved, and how much it sold for. The transactions show that much more water changes hands via leases than via sales of water rights. Public agencies and irrigators are the most common lessors, with lessees being fairly evenly distributed across types of buyers. However, with water rights sales, irrigators are by far the most common sellers and municipalities the most common buyers. Across the West in general, the number of leases has been rising in recent years, as have their prices. The prices of water right sales have also been rising, but the number of sales has not. The price of water is highly variable both within and between western states, reflecting the localized nature of the factors that affect water prices.

  9. Order flow dynamics around extreme price changes on an emerging stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mu, Guo-Hua; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Chen, Wei; Kertész, János

    2010-07-01

    We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the bid-ask spread and the volume imbalance increase before the extreme events and decay slowly as a power law, which forms a well-established peak. The volume of buy market orders increases faster and the corresponding peak appears earlier than for sell market orders around positive events, while the volume peak of sell market orders leads buy market orders in the magnitude and time around negative events. When orders are divided into four groups according to their aggressiveness, we find that the behaviors of order volume and order number are similar, except for buy limit orders and canceled orders that the peak of order number postpones 2 min later after the peak of order volume, implying that investors placing large orders are more informed and play a central role in large price fluctuations. We also study the relative rates of different types of orders and find differences in the dynamics of relative rates between buy orders and sell orders and between individual investors and institutional investors. There is evidence that institutions behave very differently from individuals and that they have more aggressive strategies. Combining these findings, we conclude that institutional investors are better informed and play a more influential role in driving large price fluctuations.

  10. Strong volume, stable prices

    SciTech Connect

    1993-11-01

    This article is the September-October 1993 market report, providing trading volume and prices in the Uranium market. Activity was brisk, with 15 deals concluded. Six were in the spot concentrates market, with four of the six deals involving U.S. utilities and approximately 1.8M pounds of U3O8 equivalent. There were five conversion deals announced, with four of the five deals involving U.S. utilities. Four deals were concluded in the enrichment market, and the deals involving U.S. utilities were approximately 327k SWUs. On the horizon, there are deals for approximately 4.1M SWU.

  11. Three essays on agricultural price volatility and the linkages between agricultural and energy markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Feng

    This dissertation contains three essays. In the first essay I use a volatility spillover model to find evidence of significant spillovers from crude oil prices to corn cash and futures prices, and that these spillover effects are time-varying. Results reveal that corn markets have become much more connected to crude oil markets after the introduction of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Furthermore, crude oil prices transmit positive volatility spillovers into corn prices and movements in corn prices become more energy-driven as the ethanol gasoline consumption ratio increases. Based on this strong volatility link between crude oil and corn prices, a new cross hedging strategy for managing corn price risk using oil futures is examined and its performance studied. Results show that this cross hedging strategy provides only slightly better hedging performance compared to traditional hedging in corn futures markets alone. The implication is that hedging corn price risk in corn futures markets alone can still provide relatively satisfactory performance in the biofuel era. The second essay studies the spillover effect of biofuel policy on participation in the Conservation Reserve Program. Landowners' participation decisions are modeled using a real options framework. A novel aspect of the model is that it captures the structural change in agriculture caused by rising biofuel production. The resulting model is used to simulate the spillover effect under various conditions. In particular, I simulate how increased growth in agricultural returns, persistence of the biofuel production boom, and the volatility surrounding agricultural returns, affect conservation program participation decisions. Policy implications of these results are also discussed. The third essay proposes a methodology to construct a risk-adjusted implied volatility measure that removes the forecasting bias of the model-free implied volatility measure. The risk adjustment is based on a closed

  12. A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamba, H.

    2010-09-01

    In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions.

  13. Electricity Market Module: Electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    1996-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the updates to the Electricity Financial Pricing Module (EFP) to reflect the rate impacts of nuclear decommissioning. The EFP is part of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The updates to the EFP related to nuclear decommissioning include both changes to the underlying data base and the methodology. Nuclear decommissioning refers to the activities performed to take a nuclear plant permanently out of service. The costs of nuclear decommissioning are substantial and uncertain. The recovery of these costs from ratepayers is to occur over the operating life of the nuclear plant. Utilities are obligated to make estimates of the nuclear decommissioning cost every few years. Given this estimate, utilities are to assess a charge upon ratepayers, such that over the operating life of the plant they collect sufficient funds to pay for the decommissioning. However, cost estimates for decommissioning have been increasing and it appears that utilities have not been collecting adequate funds to date. In addition, there is a real risk that many nuclear plants may be closed earlier than originally planned, further exacerbating the under collection problem. The updates performed in this project provide the EFP with the capability to analyze these issues. The remainder of this document is divided into two discussions: (1) Nuclear Decommissioning Data Base, and (2) Methodology. Appendix A contains the actual data base developed during the project.

  14. Characterization of large price variations in financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansen, Anders

    2003-06-01

    Statistics of drawdowns (loss from the last local maximum to the next local minimum) plays an important role in risk assessment of investment strategies. As they incorporate higher (> two) order correlations, they offer a better measure of real market risks than the variance or other cumulants of daily (or some other fixed time scale) of returns. Previous results have shown that the vast majority of drawdowns occurring on the major financial markets have a distribution which is well represented by a stretched exponential, while the largest drawdowns are occurring with a significantly larger rate than predicted by the bulk of the distribution and should thus be characterized as outliers (Eur. Phys. J. B 1 (1998) 141; J. Risk 2001). In the present analysis, the definition of drawdowns is generalized to coarse-grained drawdowns or so-called ε-drawdowns and a link between such ε- outliers and preceding log-periodic power law bubbles previously identified (Quantitative Finance 1 (2001) 452) is established.

  15. Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis of Market Clearing Price of electricity and SENSEX in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Dutta, Srimonti; Chakraborty, Sayantan

    2015-09-01

    This paper reports a study on the cross-correlation between the electric bid price and SENSEX using Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis (MF-DXA). MF-DXA is a very rigorous and robust technique for assessment of cross-correction between two non-linear time series. The study reveals power law cross-correlation between Market Clearing Price (MCP) and SENSEX which suggests that a change in the value of one can create a subjective change in the value of the other.

  16. Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

    2002-01-01

    There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government

  17. An equation of state for the financial markets: connecting order flow to price formation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerig, Austin; Mike, Szabolcs; Doyne Farmer, J.

    2006-03-01

    Many of the peculiarities of price formation in the financial marketplace can be understood as the result of a few regularities in the placement and removal of trading orders. Based on a large data set from the London Stock Exchange we show that the distribution of prices where people place orders to buy or sell follows a surprisingly simple functional form that depends on the current best prices. In addition, whether or not an order is to buy or sell is described by a long-memory process, and the cancellation of orders can be described by a few simple rules. When these results are combined, simply by following the rules of the continuous double auction, the resulting simulation model produces good predictions for the distribution of price changes and transaction costs without any adjustment of parameters. We use the model to empirically derive equations of state relating order flow and the statistical properties of prices. In contrast to previous conjectures, our results demonstrate that these distributions are not universal, but rather depend on parameters of individual markets. They also show that factors other than supply and demand play an important role in price formation.

  18. Gold price effect on stock market: A Markov switching vector error correction approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Kun, Sek Siok

    2014-06-01

    Gold is a popular precious metal where the demand is driven not only for practical use but also as a popular investments commodity. While stock market represents a country growth, thus gold price effect on stock market behavior as interest in the study. Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models are applied to analysis the relationship between gold price and stock market changes since real financial data always exhibit regime switching, jumps or missing data through time. Besides, there are numerous specifications of Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models and this paper will compare the intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model and intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model to determine the best model representation in capturing the transition of the time series. Results have shown that gold price has a positive relationship with Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia stock market and a two regime intercept adjusted heteroskedasticity Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model is able to provide the more significance and reliable result compare to intercept adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Models.

  19. From default probabilities to credit spreads: credit risk models explain market prices (Keynote Address)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denzler, Stefan M.; Dacorogna, Michel M.; Muller, Ulrich A.; McNeil, Alexander J.

    2005-05-01

    Credit risk models like Moody's KMV are now well established in the market and give bond managers reliable default probabilities for individual firms. Until now it has been hard to relate those probabilities to the actual credit spreads observed on the market for corporate bonds. Inspired by the existence of scaling laws in financial markets by Dacorogna et al. 2001 and DiMatteo et al. 2005 deviating from the Gaussian behavior, we develop a model that quantitatively links those default probabilities to credit spreads (market prices). The main input quantities to this study are merely industry yield data of different times to maturity and expected default frequencies (EDFs) of Moody's KMV. The empirical results of this paper clearly indicate that the model can be used to calculate approximate credit spreads (market prices) from EDFs, independent of the time to maturity and the industry sector under consideration. Moreover, the model is effective in an out-of-sample setting, it produces consistent results on the European bond market where data are scarce and can be adequately used to approximate credit spreads on the corporate level.

  20. Open Access versus Traditional Journal Pricing: Using a Simple "Platform Market" Model to Understand Which Will Win (and Which Should)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCabe, Mark J.; Snyder, Christopher M.; Fagin, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Economists have built a theory to understand markets in which, rather than selling directly to buyers, suppliers sell through a platform, which controls prices on both sides. The theory has been applied to understand markets ranging from telephony, to credit cards, to media. In this paper, we apply the theory to the market for scholarly journals,…

  1. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

    PubMed

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-11-10

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

  2. Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations

    PubMed Central

    Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    2015-01-01

    Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes—deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216

  3. The market value of cultural heritage in urban areas: an application of spatial hedonic pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazrak, Faroek; Nijkamp, Peter; Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The current literature often values intangible goods like cultural heritage by applying stated preference methods. In recent years, however, the increasing availability of large databases on real estate transactions and listed prices has opened up new research possibilities and has reduced various existing barriers to applications of conventional (spatial) hedonic analysis to the real estate market. The present paper provides one of the first applications using a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the impact of cultural heritage—in particular, listed buildings and historic-cultural sites (or historic landmarks)—on the value of real estate in cities. In addition, this paper suggests a novel way of specifying the spatial weight matrix—only prices of sold houses influence current price—in identifying the spatial dependency effects between sold properties. The empirical application in the present study concerns the Dutch urban area of Zaanstad, a historic area for which over a long period of more than 20 years detailed information on individual dwellings, and their market prices are available in a GIS context. In this paper, the effect of cultural heritage is analysed in three complementary ways. First, we measure the effect of a listed building on its market price in the relevant area concerned. Secondly, we investigate the value that listed heritage has on nearby property. And finally, we estimate the effect of historic-cultural sites on real estate prices. We find that, to purchase a listed building, buyers are willing to pay an additional 26.9 %, while surrounding houses are worth an extra 0.28 % for each additional listed building within a 50-m radius. Houses sold within a conservation area appear to gain a premium of 26.4 % which confirms the existence of a `historic ensemble' effect.

  4. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  5. Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

    2005-05-01

    This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

  6. Sex, price and preferences: accounting for unsafe sexual practices in prostitution markets.

    PubMed

    Adriaenssens, Stef; Hendrickx, Jef

    2012-06-01

    Unsafe sexual practices are persistent in prostitution interactions: one in four contacts can be called unsafe. The determinants of this are still matter for debate. We account for the roles played by clients' preferences and the hypothetical price premium of unsafe sexual practices with the help of a large dataset of clients' self-reported commercial sexual transactions in Belgium and The Netherlands. Almost 25,000 reports were collected, representing the whole gamut of prostitution market segments. The first set of explanations consists of an analysis of the price-fixing elements of paid sex. With the help of the so-called hedonic pricing method we test for the existence of a price incentive for unsafe sex. In accordance with the results from studies in some prostitution markets in the developing world, the study replicates a significant wage penalty for condom use of an estimated 7.2 per cent, confirmed in both multilevel and fixed-effects regressions. The second part of the analysis reconstructs the demand side basis of this wage penalty: the consistent preference of clients of prostitution for unsafe sex. This study is the first to document empirically clients' preference for intercourse without a condom, with the help of a multilevel ordinal regression. PMID:22103861

  7. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

  8. Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

    PubMed

    Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

    2012-05-01

    Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics. PMID:23004832

  9. Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategy and whether it undermines tobacco tax policy: the example of the UK cigarette market

    PubMed Central

    Gilmore, Anna B; Tavakoly, Behrooz; Taylor, Gordon; Reed, Howard

    2013-01-01

    Aims Tobacco tax increases are the most effective means of reducing tobacco use and inequalities in smoking, but effectiveness depends on transnational tobacco company (TTC) pricing strategies, specifically whether TTCs overshift tax increases (increase prices on top of the tax increase) or undershift the taxes (absorb the tax increases so they are not passed onto consumers), about which little is known. Design Review of literature on brand segmentation. Analysis of 1999–2009 data to explore the extent to which tax increases are shifted to consumers, if this differs by brand segment and whether cigarette price indices accurately reflect cigarette prices. Setting UK. Participants UK smokers. Measurements Real cigarette prices, volumes and net-of-tax- revenue by price segment. Findings TTCs categorise brands into four price segments: premium, economy, mid and ‘ultra-low price’ (ULP). TTCs have sold ULP brands since 2006; since then, their real price has remained virtually static and market share doubled. The price gap between premium and ULP brands is increasing because the industry differentially shifts tax increases between brand segments; while, on average, taxes are overshifted, taxes on ULP brands are not always fully passed onto consumers (being absorbed at the point each year when tobacco taxes increase). Price indices reflect the price of premium brands only and fail to detect these problems. Conclusions Industry-initiated cigarette price changes in the UK appear timed to accentuate the price gap between premium and ULP brands. Increasing the prices of more expensive cigarettes on top of tobacco tax increases should benefit public health, but the growing price gap enables smokers to downtrade to cheaper tobacco products and may explain smoking-related inequalities. Governments must monitor cigarette prices by price segment and consider industry pricing strategies in setting tobacco tax policies. PMID:23445255

  10. Short-time behaviour of demand and price viewed through an exactly solvable model for heterogeneous interacting market agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schütz, Gunter M.; de Almeida Prado, Fernando Pigeard; Harris, Rosemary J.; Belitsky, Vladimir

    2009-10-01

    We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account the market price and the perceived fundamental value of the asset. The resulting excess demand is coupled to the market price. Rigorous analysis reveals that this feedback may lead to price oscillations, a single bounce, or monotonic price behaviour. The model is a rare example of an analytically tractable interacting-agent model which allows us to deduce in detail the origin of these different collective patterns. For a natural choice of initial distribution, the results are independent of the graph structure that models the peer network of agents whose decisions influence each other.

  11. Price elasticities in the German Statutory Health Insurance market before and after the health care reform of 2009.

    PubMed

    Pendzialek, Jonas B; Danner, Marion; Simic, Dusan; Stock, Stephanie

    2015-05-01

    This paper investigates the change in price elasticity of health insurance choice in Germany after a reform of health insurance contributions. Using a comprehensive data set of all sickness funds between 2004 and 2013, price elasticities are calculated both before and after the reform for the entire market. The general price elasticity is found to be increased more than 4-fold from -0.81 prior to the reform to -3.53 after the reform. By introducing a new kind of health insurance contribution the reform seemingly increased the price elasticity of insured individuals to a more appropriate level under the given market parameters. However, further unintended consequences of the new contribution scheme were massive losses of market share for the more expensive sickness funds and therefore an undivided focus on pricing as the primary competitive element to the detriment of quality. PMID:25670009

  12. Seeking lower prices where providers are consolidated: an examination of market and policy strategies.

    PubMed

    Ginsburg, Paul B; Pawlson, L Gregory

    2014-06-01

    The ongoing consolidation between and among hospitals and physicians tends to raise prices for health care services, which poses increasing challenges for private purchasers and payers. This article examines strategies that these purchasers and payers can pursue to combat provider leverage to increase prices. It also examines opportunities for governments to either support or constrain these strategies. In response to higher prices, payers are developing new approaches to benefit and network design, some of which may be effective in moderating prices and, in some cases, volume. These approaches interact with public policy because regulation can either facilitate or constrain them. Federal and state governments also have opportunities to limit consolidation's effect on prices by developing antitrust policies that better address current market environments and by fostering the development of physician organizations that can increase competition and contract with payers under shared-savings approaches. The success of these private- and public-sector initiatives likely will determine whether governments shift from supporting competition to directly regulating payment rates. PMID:24841883

  13. Three essays on price dynamics and causations among energy markets and macroeconomic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Sung Wook

    This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.

  14. International Commodity Markets, Local Food Prices and Environment in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Hintermann, B.; Higgins, N.

    2008-12-01

    The recent massive increase in food and energy prices in the past five years, coupled with the awareness of the long term challenges of climate change to small holder agriculture in Africa has brought the issue of food security for the world's poorest people to the forefront once again. Asymmetric and limited integration of local commodity markets in West Africa highlights the weak position of Africa's rural countries in the face of climate change and demographic expansion. This paper will describe the functioning of local informal food markets in West African over the past twenty years and evaluate the impact of their limited integration with each other and with global commodity markets. Satellite remote sensing of vegetation has been used as a proxy for agricultural production in economic models to improve prediction of large swings in prices from year to year due to differences in supply. As demand increases, improvements in market functioning will be necessary to counter likely increases in production variability. Increasing Africa's stability in the face of climate change will require investment in agricultural production and transportation infrastructure in order to ensure an affordable flow of food to people in these extremely poor, landlocked countries.

  15. How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field

    PubMed Central

    Sonnemann, Ulrich; Camerer, Colin F.; Fox, Craig R.; Langer, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics. PMID:23818628

  16. Non-Equilibrium Patterns in the Space of the Stock Market Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gligor, M.; Ignat, M.

    2002-11-01

    Using a phenomenological approach, we analyse the formation and the propagation of the patterns (or ‘dissipative structures’) in the stock market, the spatial coordinate being the bid-offer spread y, as a function of which the spectrum φ of deals is modelled. The stock market will be considered a distributed active medium that is a set of active elements (the brokers) interacting with others through deals (typically a diffusion process). The physical model used is the reaction-diffusion model. The reactive part of the reaction-diffusion equation is developed from a hot-spot mechanism, with a characteristic jump when φ passes the critical value φc. Solving the stationary equation according to the Dirichlet boundary conditions, we find the ‘hot deals’ regions, meaning regions of speculative transactions which can be considered ‘dissipation’ as they do not contribute to the gross national product. The time propagation of these patterns in the one-dimensional space considered could explain the evolution of markets towards speculative bubbles. These are frequently met in the frame of emerging stock markets. Financial data, which illustrate the physical model refer to Romania's stock market, Bucharest S.E.

  17. An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houde, Jean-Francois

    In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

  18. Models for the size distribution of businesses in a price driven market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Hulst, R.; Rodgers, G. J.

    2001-06-01

    A microscopic model of aggregation and fragmentation is introduced to investigate the size distribution of businesses. In the model, businesses are constrained to comply with the market price, as expected by the customers, while customers can only buy at the prices offered by the businesses. We show numerically and analytically that the size distribution scales like a power-law. A mean-field version of our model is also introduced and we determine for which value of the parameters the mean-field model agrees with the microscopic model. We discuss to what extent our simple model and its results compare with empirical data on company sizes in the US and debt sizes in Japan. Finally, possible extensions of the mean-field model are discussed, to cope with other empirical data.

  19. Price game and chaos control among three oligarchs with different rationalities in property insurance market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Junhai; Zhang, Junling

    2012-12-01

    Combining with the actual competition in Chinese property insurance market and assuming that the property insurance companies take the marginal utility maximization as the basis of decision-making when they play price games, we first established the price game model with three oligarchs who have different rationalities. Then, we discussed the existence and stability of equilibrium points. Third, we studied the theoretical value of Lyapunov exponent at Nash equilibrium point and its change process with the main parameters' changes though having numerical simulation for the system such as the bifurcation, chaos attractors, and so on. Finally, we analyzed the influences which the changes of different parameters have on the profits and utilities of oligarchs and their corresponding competition advantage. Based on this, we used the variable feedback control method to control the chaos of the system and stabilized the chaos state to Nash equilibrium point again. The results have significant theoretical and practical application value.

  20. Nursing home prices and market structure: the effect of assisted living industry expansion.

    PubMed

    Bowblis, John R

    2014-01-01

    Since the 1990s, there has been substantial expansion of facility-based alternatives to nursing home care, such as assisted living facilities. This paper analyzes the relationship between expansion of the assisted living industry, nursing home market structure and nursing home private pay prices using a two-year panel of nursing homes in the State of Ohio. Fixed effect regressions suggest that the expansion of assisted living facilities are associated with increased nursing home concentration, but find no effect on private pay nursing home prices. This would be consistent with assisted livings reducing demand for nursing homes by delaying entry into a nursing home, though assisted livings are not direct competitors of nursing homes. PMID:23889775

  1. Anomalous Price Impact and the Critical Nature of Liquidity in Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tóth, B.; Lempérière, Y.; Deremble, C.; de Lataillade, J.; Kockelkoren, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2011-10-01

    We propose a dynamical theory of market liquidity that predicts that the average supply/demand profile is V shaped and vanishes around the current price. This result is generic, and only relies on mild assumptions about the order flow and on the fact that prices are, to a first approximation, diffusive. This naturally accounts for two striking stylized facts: First, large metaorders have to be fragmented in order to be digested by the liquidity funnel, which leads to a long memory in the sign of the order flow. Second, the anomalously small local liquidity induces a breakdown of the linear response and a diverging impact of small orders, explaining the “square-root” impact law, for which we provide additional empirical support. Finally, we test our arguments quantitatively using a numerical model of order flow based on the same minimal ingredients.

  2. Market Review: Market values summary/April market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1996-05-01

    This article is the April 1996 Uranium transactions summary. Data is presented on the supply, demand, and prices of U3O8, conversion services, and separative work units. During this period, market activity slowed, with only four transactions in the spot market. Prices strengthened slightly. There were five deals in the long-term U3O8 market and one deal in the conversion market. Active demand increased to 1.1 million pounds U3O8, while active supply increased to 4.8 million pounds U3O8.

  3. Market review: Market values summary July market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market is provided. Recent transactions are tabulated, including uranium sales, natural uranium loans, conversion sales, and enrichment sales. A market values summary and long-term price indicators are also provided. The July 1996 market review data includes summaries of near-term uranium sales, near-term supply/demand, NUEXCO values, USEC prices, and calculated worth of enriched uranium. Active projects in uranium, conversion, and separative work supply and demand are listed. International market values are tabulated for 22 selected currencies.

  4. Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Groot, Robert D.; Musters, Pieter A. D.

    2005-05-01

    A variation of the Minority Game has been applied to study the timing of promotional actions at retailers in the fast moving consumer goods market. The underlying hypotheses for this work are that price promotions are more effective when fewer than average competitors do a promotion, and that a promotion strategy can be based on past sales data. The first assumption has been checked by analysing 1467 promotional actions for three products on the Dutch market (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) over a 120-week period, both on an aggregated level and on retailer chain level. The second assumption was tested by analysing past sales data with the Minority Game. This revealed that high or low competitor promotional pressure for actual ketchup, mayonnaise, curry sauce and barbecue sauce markets is to some extent predictable up to a forecast of some 10 weeks. Whereas a random guess would be right 50% of the time, a single-agent game can predict the market with a success rate of 56% for a 6-9 week forecast. This number is the same for all four mentioned fast moving consumer markets. For a multi-agent game a larger variability in the success rate is obtained, but predictability can be as high as 65%. Contrary to expectation, the actual market does the opposite of what game theory would predict. This points at a systematic oscillation in the market. Even though this result is not fully understood, merely observing that this trend is present in the data could lead to exploitable trading benefits. As a check, random history strings were generated from which the statistical variation in the game prediction was studied. This shows that the odds are 1:1,000,000 that the observed pattern in the market is based on coincidence.

  5. Multi-period equilibrium/near-equilibrium in electricity markets based on locational marginal prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia Bertrand, Raquel

    In this dissertation we propose an equilibrium procedure that coordinates the point of view of every market agent resulting in an equilibrium that simultaneously maximizes the independent objective of every market agent and satisfies network constraints. Therefore, the activities of the generating companies, consumers and an independent system operator are modeled: (1) The generating companies seek to maximize profits by specifying hourly step functions of productions and minimum selling prices, and bounds on productions. (2) The goals of the consumers are to maximize their economic utilities by specifying hourly step functions of demands and maximum buying prices, and bounds on demands. (3) The independent system operator then clears the market taking into account consistency conditions as well as capacity and line losses so as to achieve maximum social welfare. Then, we approach this equilibrium problem using complementarity theory in order to have the capability of imposing constraints on dual variables, i.e., on prices, such as minimum profit conditions for the generating units or maximum cost conditions for the consumers. In this way, given the form of the individual optimization problems, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions for the generating companies, the consumers and the independent system operator are both necessary and sufficient. The simultaneous solution to all these conditions constitutes a mixed linear complementarity problem. We include minimum profit constraints imposed by the units in the market equilibrium model. These constraints are added as additional constraints to the equivalent quadratic programming problem of the mixed linear complementarity problem previously described. For the sake of clarity, the proposed equilibrium or near-equilibrium is first developed for the particular case considering only one time period. Afterwards, we consider an equilibrium or near-equilibrium applied to a multi-period framework. This model embodies binary

  6. U.S. Residential Photovoltaic (PV) System Prices, Q4 2013 Benchmarks: Cash Purchase, Fair Market Value, and Prepaid Lease Transaction Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Davidson, C.; James, T. L.; Margolis, R.; Fu, R.; Feldman, D.

    2014-10-01

    The price of photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States (i.e., the cost to the system owner) has dropped precipitously in recent years, led by substantial reductions in global PV module prices. This report provides a Q4 2013 update for residential PV systems, based on an objective methodology that closely approximates the book value of a PV system. Several cases are benchmarked to represent common variation in business models, labor rates, and module choice. We estimate a weighted-average cash purchase price of $3.29/W for modeled standard-efficiency, polycrystalline-silicon residential PV systems installed in the United States. This is a 46% decline from the 2013-dollar-adjusted price reported in the Q4 2010 benchmark report. In addition, this report frames the cash purchase price in the context of key price metrics relevant to the continually evolving landscape of third-party-owned PV systems by benchmarking the minimum sustainable lease price and the fair market value of residential PV systems.

  7. A Large Generator's Bids in an Electricity Supply Auction: Uniform Pricing vs. Pay-as-Bid Pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, Yoshihiro; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    A pay-as-bid auction has been adopted in a balancing market under New Electricity Trading Arrangements in England and Wales since 2001 instead of a uniform price auction previously used in a day-ahead pool market. In contrast, a spot market in Japan, where a general electric utility would be the main supplier, plans to employ a uniform price auction. In this paper we model an electricity spot market in which one large generator competes with many fringe generators to supply electricity, analyze how this large generator bids to maximize its profits, and report some implication for the design of this market. Three types of auction are analyzed: a highest-winning-bid pricing (HWB) uniform price auction, a lowest-losing-bid pricing (LLB) uniform price auction and a pay-as-bid auction. It is shown that the slope of the bid curve, which is obtained by plotting the large generator's bidding prices against its generation costs, are steeper in an LLB uniform price auction and flatter in a pay-as-bid auction than those in an HWB uniform price auction. This implies that an LLB uniform price auction or a pay-as-bid auction would make room for the fringe generators to win an auction.

  8. Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

  9. Out Out, Damned Spot: General Education in a Market-Driven Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Michael S.

    2006-01-01

    The influence of market forces on general education creates threats and opportunities that must be proactively addressed. This essay argues for understanding the rise of the marketplace and its influence on general education by exploring student consumerism as well as teaching and learning in a market-oriented environment. (Contains 1 figure.)

  10. Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hikspoors, Samuel

    The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

  11. A prospect theory explanation of the disposition to trade losing investments for less than market price.

    PubMed

    Johnstone, D J

    2002-06-01

    Investors have a proven general reluctance to realize losses. The theory of "mental accounting" suggests that losses are easier to accept when mentally integrated with either preceding losses or with compensatory gains. Mental integration is made easier when a failed asset is exchanged against a new, apparently profitable, acquisition. The alternative is to sell the existing asset on the open market before re-investing the proceeds as desired. This is emotionally less appealing than "rolling over" a losing investment into a new venture by way of an asset trade. The psychological benefits of exchanging rather than selling a failed asset come at a cost. It is typical of trade-in arrangements, e.g., where one trades an old car against a new one, that the effective sale price of the existing asset is less than current market value. Acceptance of this low price adds to the investor's total monetary loss on the existing asset but is essential to an overall package deal apart from which that asset would often remain belatedly unsold. PMID:12090518

  12. The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success.

    SciTech Connect

    Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D.; Vyas, A. D.

    1999-12-08

    Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.

  13. Update on inflation of journal prices: Brandon/Hill list journals and the scientific, technical, and medical publishing market*

    PubMed Central

    Schlimgen, Joan B.; Kronenfeld, Michael R.

    2004-01-01

    Objective: The original study of journal prices, using the “Brandon/ Hill Selected List of Books and Journals for the Small Medical Library,” was first published in 1980 and periodically updated. This research continues to measure price increases for these titles for the periods 1996 to 1999 and 1999 to 2002. Methodology: The 111 journal titles that have appeared in each published list from 1967 to 2001 were included in the study. Institutional subscription price data were gathered for each journal for the years 1996, 1999, and 2002 and were compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same years. Results: The average journal price continues to rise significantly and is independent of the CPI. The study found that prices have jumped 51.9% from 1996 to 1999 and 32% from 1999 to 2002, which is consistent with nearly every recent journal price study. Conclusion: The unprecedented rise in journal prices negatively affects the purchasing power of medical libraries. This paper examines the economic and technological pressures on the science, technology, and medical journals market that contribute to high prices and identifies a number of initiatives in the biological and health sciences that utilize alternative models for disseminating scientific research. PMID:15243636

  14. Gas-kinetic theory and Boltzmann equation of share price within an equilibrium market hypothesis and ad hoc strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, M.

    2000-09-01

    Recent observations have indicated that the traditional equilibrium market hypothesis (EMH; also known as Efficient Market Hypothesis) is unrealistic. It is shown here that it is the analog of a Boltzmann equation in physics, thus having some bad properties of mean-field approximations like a Gaussian distribution of price fluctuations. A kinetic theory for prices can be simply derived, considering in a first approach that market actors have all identical relaxation times, and solved within a Chapman-Enskog like formalism. In closing the set of equations, (i) an equation of state with a pressure and (ii) the equilibrium (isothermal) equation for the price (taken as the order parameter) of a stock as a function of the volume of money available are obtained.

  15. The Entry of Colombian-Sourced Heroin into the US Market: The Relationship between Competition, Price, and Purity

    PubMed Central

    Rosenblum, Daniel; Unick, Jay; Ciccarone, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    There have been large structural changes in the US heroin market over the past 20 years. Colombian-sourced heroin entered the market in the mid-1990s, followed by a large fall in the price per pure gram and the exit of Asian heroin. By the 2000s, Colombian-sourced heroin had become a monopoly on the east coast and Mexican-sourced heroin a monopoly on the west coast with competition between the two in the middle. We estimate the relationship between these changes in competitive market structure on retail-level heroin price and purity. We find that the entry of Colombian-sourced heroin is associated with less competition and a lower price per pure gram of heroin at the national level. However, there is wide variation in changes in market concentration across the US. Controlling for the national fall in the heroin price, more competition in a region or city is associated with a lower price per pure gram. PMID:24211155

  16. Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kumar, Vivek; Horio, Brant M.; DeCicco, Anthony H.; Hasan, Shahab; Stouffer, Virginia L.; Smith, Jeremy C.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

  17. Urban Farmers' Markets: accessibility, offerings, and produce variety, quality, and price compared to nearby stores

    PubMed Central

    Maroko, Andrew; Sanon, Omar; Frias, Rafael; Schechter, Clyde B.

    2015-01-01

    Most food-environment research has focused narrowly on select stores and restaurants. There has been comparatively less attention to non-storefront food sources like farmers' markets (FMs), particularly in urban communities. The objective of the present study was to assess FMs' potential contribution to an urban food environment in terms of specific foods offered, and compare FM accessibility as well as produce variety, quality, and price to that of nearby stores. Investigators conducted a detailed cross-sectional assessment of all FMs in Bronx County, NY, and of the nearest store(s) selling produce within a half-mile walking distance (up to two stores per FM). The study included 26 FMs and 44 stores. Investigators assessed accessibility (locations of FMs and stores relative to each other, and hours of operation for each), variety (the number and type of all food items offered at FMs and all fresh produce items offered at stores), quality (where produce items were grown and if they were organic), and price (including any sales prices or promotional discounts). Analyses included frequencies, proportions, and variable distributions, as well as mixed-effect regressions, paired t-tests, and signed rank tests to compare FMs to stores. Geographic information systems (GIS) allowed for mapping of FM and store locations and determining street-network distances between them. The mean distance between FMs and the nearest store selling fresh produce was 0.15 miles (range 0.02-0.36 miles). FMs were open substantially fewer months, days, and hours than stores. FMs offered 26.4 fewer fresh produce items on average than stores (p values <0.02). FM produce items were more frequently local and organic, but often tended towards less-common/more-exotic and heirloom varieties. FMs were more expensive on average (p values <0.001 for pairwise comparisons to stores)—even for more-commonplace and “conventional” produce—especially when discounts or sales prices were considered

  18. Urban farmers' markets: accessibility, offerings, and produce variety, quality, and price compared to nearby stores.

    PubMed

    Lucan, Sean C; Maroko, Andrew R; Sanon, Omar; Frias, Rafael; Schechter, Clyde B

    2015-07-01

    Most food-environment research has focused narrowly on select stores and restaurants. There has been comparatively less attention to non-storefront food sources like farmers' markets (FMs), particularly in urban communities. The objective of the present study was to assess FMs' potential contribution to an urban food environment in terms of specific foods offered, and compare FM accessibility as well as produce variety, quality, and price to that of nearby stores. Investigators conducted a detailed cross-sectional assessment of all FMs in Bronx County, NY, and of the nearest store(s) selling produce within a half-mile walking distance (up to two stores per FM). The study included 26 FMs and 44 stores. Investigators assessed accessibility (locations of FMs and stores relative to each other, and hours of operation for each), variety (the number and type of all food items offered at FMs and all fresh produce items offered at stores), quality (where produce items were grown and if they were organic), and price (including any sales prices or promotional discounts). Analyses included frequencies, proportions, and variable distributions, as well as mixed-effect regressions, paired t-tests, and signed rank tests to compare FMs to stores. Geographic information systems (GIS) allowed for mapping of FM and store locations and determining street-network distances between them. The mean distance between FMs and the nearest store selling fresh produce was 0.15 miles (range 0.02-0.36 miles). FMs were open substantially fewer months, days, and hours than stores. FMs offered 26.4 fewer fresh produce items on average than stores (p values <0.02). FM produce items were more frequently local and organic, but often tended toward less-common/more-exotic and heirloom varieties. FMs were more expensive on average (p values <0.001 for pairwise comparisons to stores) - even for more-commonplace and "conventional" produce - especially when discounts or sales prices were considered. Fully, 32

  19. The MiSPOT System: Personalized Publicity and Marketing over Interactive Digital TV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Nores, Martín; Pazos-Arias, José Juan; Blanco-Fernández, Yolanda; García-Duque, Jorge; Tubío-Pardavila, Ricardo; Rey-López, Marta

    The development of Interactive Digital TV bears a great potential for electronic commerce, which remains heavily underexploited to date. The early initiatives to harness these technologies rely on the advertising techniques traditionally employed by the television industry, which have proven deficiencies related to viewers' comfort, locality and targeting. Furthermore, out of dedicated channels, there are very few attempts to provide interactive commercial functionalities through the TV, for example to sell products or to hire services. This chapter presents an overview of a system called MiSPOT that introduces solutions to these problems in two levels: (i) to advertise items that match the preferences and needs of the viewers, without interfering with their enjoyment of the TV programs; and (ii) to assemble specialized interactive applications that provide them with tailor-made commercial functionalities. These solutions are grounded on techniques from the Semantic Web, and are valid for both domestic TV receivers and mobile ones.

  20. Cancer vaccines and immunotherapeutics: challenges for pricing, reimbursement and market access.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, Bengt; Wilking, Nils

    2012-09-01

    Public payment is key to market access for new therapeutics including cancer vaccines and cancer immunotherapeutics. However, the methodology for economic evaluation aimed at informing decisions about pricing and reimbursement is different for cancer vaccines, such as HPV for preventing the occurrence or incidence of cancer, and immunotherapeutics for treatment of patients with manifest cancer. Vaccination against HPV is a traditional public health intervention, where the role of economic evaluation is to inform decisions about optimal vaccination strategies. The decision is about funding for a vaccination program, aimed at vaccinating a defined population at risk, either at a national or regional level. The methodology of economic evaluation is based on statistical modeling of number of cases prevented over a long time period, and the costs and health outcome related to this, for different vaccination strategies For immunotherapeutics, the role of economic evaluation is to assist decisions about reimbursement and guidelines for treatment of patients with establish disease, very often at advanced stages with short life expectancy. The focus is on alternative treatment options, and the costs and outcomes associated with these. Alternatives may be best supportive care, immunotherapeutics or other treatments like surgery, radiotherapy and other anti-cancer drugs. From an economic perspective the type of therapy does not matter, only costs and outcome associated with the relevant alternatives. The main controversy about reimbursement of immunotherapeutics, as with other new cancer drugs, has been the cost of treatment, mainly determined by the price of the therapy, in relation to the expected benefits in terms of survival and quality of life. This paper reviews the evidence on cost-effectiveness, the reimbursement decisions made, and the impact on market access for new immunotherapeutics. Sipuleucel-T (Provenge(®)) and abiraterone (Zytiga(®)) for treatment of

  1. Possibility of controlling nonregulated prices in the electricity market by means of varying the parameters of a power system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaskovskaya, T. A.

    2014-12-01

    This paper offers a new approach to the analysis of price signals from the wholesale electricity and capacity market that is based on the analysis of the influence exerted by input data used in the problem of optimization of the power system operating conditions, namely: parameters of a power grid and power-receiving equipment that might vary under the effect of control devices. It is shown that it would be possible to control nonregulated prices for electricity in the wholesale electricity market by varying the parameters of control devices and energy-receiving equipment. An increase in the effectiveness of power transmission and the cost-effective use of fuel-and-energy resources (energy saving) can become an additional effect of controlling the nonregulated prices.

  2. 9 CFR 201.53 - Persons subject to the Act not to circulate misleading reports about market conditions or prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Persons subject to the Act not to circulate misleading reports about market conditions or prices. 201.53 Section 201.53 Animals and Animal Products GRAIN INSPECTION, PACKERS AND STOCKYARDS ADMINISTRATION (PACKERS AND STOCKYARDS PROGRAMS), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE REGULATIONS UNDER...

  3. Medical Care Price Indexes for Patients with Employer-Provided Insurance: Nationally Representative Estimates from MarketScan Data

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Abe; Liebman, Eli; Pack, Sarah; Shapiro, Adam Hale

    2013-01-01

    Objective Commonly observed shifts in the utilization of medical care services to treat diseases may pose problems for official price indexes at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that do not account for service shifts. We examine how these shifts may lead to different price estimates than those observed in official price statistics at the BLS. Data Sources We use a convenience sample of enrollees with employer-provided insurance from the MarketScan database for the years 2003 to 2007. Population weights that consider the age, sex, and geographic distribution of enrollees are assigned to construct representative estimates. Study Design We compare two types of price indexes: (1) a Service Price Index (SPI) that is similar to the BLS index, which holds services fixed and measures the prices of the underlying treatments; (2) a Medical Care Expenditure Index (MCE) that measures the cost of treating diseases and allows for utilization shifts. Principal Findings Over the entire period of study the CAGR of the SPI grows 0.7 percentage points faster than the preferred MCE index. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the health component of inflation may be overstated by 0.7 percentage points per year, and real GDP growth may be understated by a similar amount. However, more work may be necessary to precisely replicate the indexes of the BLS to obtain a more accurate measure of these price differences. PMID:23088562

  4. Market review: Market values summary/May market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1996-06-01

    This article is the May 1996 Uranium transactions summary. Data on Uranium supply and demand is included, as is data on conversion services and separative work units supply and demand. The spot market was active during this period, with 3.6 million pounds U3O8 changing hands in nine transactions. This brought a strengthing of prices. There were also five deals in the long-term market and three deals for natural UF6.

  5. A Study of Economic Evaluation of Demand-side Energy Storage System in Consideration of Market Clearing Price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furusawa, Ken; Sugihara, Hideharu; Tsuji, Kiichiro; Mitani, Yasunori

    In Japan electricity market will open on 1st April 2004. Electric utility, Power Producer and Supplier (:PPS) and Load Service Entity (:LSE) will join to the electricity market. LSEs purchase electricity based on Market Clearing Price (:MCP) from electricity market. LSEs supply electricity to the customers contracted with the LSEs on a certain electricity price, and one to the customers introduced Energy Storage System (:ES) on a time of use pricing. It is difficult for LSEs to estimate whether they have incentive to promote customers to introduce ES or not. In this paper, it is evaluated the reduction of LSEs' purchasing cost from electricity market and other LSEs' purchasing cost by introducing customers ES. It is clarified that which kind of customers has the effect of decreasing LSEs' purchasing cost and how much MCP of whole power system the demand-side energy storage systems change. Through numerical examples, this paper evaluates the possibility to give the cost merit to both customers with energy storage systems and LSE by using a real data of yearly MCP.

  6. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better?

    PubMed Central

    Doran, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Hyosun Kim’s report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it PMID:27239884

  7. Oil market and macroeconomic activity in the industrialized countries

    SciTech Connect

    Viscio, A.J. Jr.

    1981-01-01

    In the oil market, the price inelasticity of non-OPEC supply and demand for oil requires most of the shortrun adjustment to occur through changes in price rather than quantity. This inflexibility of quantity if compounded by the ability of OPEC as a cartel to successfully prevent its nominally quoted official price from declining during periods of excess supply. A model of the shortrun price behavior of OPEC oil, which described the behavior of producers and consumers, is derived and estimated. The resultant spot-price reaction function proves to be highly nonlinear, and oil demand must exceed a critical level of capacity before the spot price begins to rise. This model explains the upward staircasing of nominal OPEC prices. The spot price leads the official price upward. The new official price establishes a higher floor for the spot price. Simulations are used to study the effects of changes in the rate of economic growth in the industrialized countries and the level of OPEC capacity on the price and consumption of oil. The relevant shortrun relationships between the price of oil and the economy, extracted from the literature, are estimated in a two-country model representing the United States and an aggregate of the remaining major industrialized countries.

  8. Steady Increase In Prices For Oral Anticancer Drugs After Market Launch Suggests A Lack Of Competitive Pressure.

    PubMed

    Bennette, Caroline S; Richards, Catherine; Sullivan, Sean D; Ramsey, Scott D

    2016-05-01

    The cost of treating cancer has risen to unprecedented heights, putting tremendous financial pressure on patients, payers, and society. Previous studies have documented the rising prices of cancer drugs at launch, but less critical attention has been paid to the cost of these drugs after launch. We used pharmacy claims for commercially insured individuals to examine trends in postlaunch prices over time for orally administered anticancer drugs recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In the period 2007-13, inflation-adjusted per patient monthly drug prices increased 5 percent each year. Certain market changes also played a role, with prices rising an additional 10 percent with each supplemental indication approved by the FDA and declining 2 percent with the FDA's approval of a competitor drug. Our findings suggest that there is currently little competitive pressure in the oral anticancer drug market. Policy makers who wish to reduce the costs of anticancer drugs should consider implementing policies that affect prices not only at launch but also later. PMID:27140986

  9. Examining the influence of price and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets among low-income eastern North Carolina women

    PubMed Central

    McGuirt, Jared T.; Jilcott Pitts, Stephanie B.; Ward, Rachel; Crawford, Thomas W.; Keyserling, Thomas C.; Ammerman, Alice S.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: To examine the influence of farmers’ market pricing and accessibility on willingness to shop at farmers’ markets, among low-income women. Design: Qualitative interviews using scenarios with quantitative assessment of willingness to shop at farmers’ market given certain pricing and accessibility scenarios. Setting: Eastern North Carolina. Participants: Thirty seven low-income women of child-bearing age (18-44 years) receiving family planning services at the health department. Phenomenon of Interest: Willingness to shop at a farmers’ market. Analysis: Fisher’s exact test was used to examine associations between willingness to shop at farmers’ markets by urban/rural residence, race, and employment status. Direct quotations relevant to participants' use of farmers' markets were extracted based upon a positive deviance framework. Results: Participants were increasingly willing to shop at the farmers’ market when price savings increased and when the market was incrementally closer to their residence. Willingness was highest when there was at least a 20% price savings. Participants seemed to be influenced more by a visual representation of a greater quantity of produce received with the price savings rather than the quantitative representation of the money saved by the reduced price. Conclusions and Implications: Future farmers’ market interventions should take into account these consumer level preferences. PMID:24201077

  10. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  11. Identifying the multiscale impacts of crude oil price shocks on the stock market in China at the sector level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shupei; An, Haizhong; Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Xuan

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this research is to investigate the multiscale dynamic linkages between crude oil price and the stock market in China at the sector level. First, the Haar à trous wavelet transform is implemented to extract multiscale information from the original time series. Furthermore, we incorporate the vector autoregression model to estimate the dynamic relationship pairing the Brent oil price and each sector stock index at each scale. There is a strong evidence showing that there are bidirectional Granger causality relationships between most of the sector stock indices and the crude oil price in the short, medium and long terms, except for those in the health, utility and consumption sectors. In fact, the impacts of the crude oil price shocks vary for different sectors over different time horizons. More precisely, the energy, information, material and telecommunication sector stock indices respond to crude oil price shocks negatively in the short run and positively in the medium and long runs, terms whereas the finance sector responds positively over all three time horizons. Moreover, the Brent oil price shocks have a stronger influence on the stock indices of sectors other than the health, optional and utility sectors in the medium and long terms than in the short term. The results obtained suggest implication of this paper as that the investment and policymaking decisions made during different time horizons should be based on the information gathered from each corresponding time scale.

  12. Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, A. J.; Saraiva, J. T.

    2012-10-01

    This paper describes a Dynamic Model of the electricity sector that can be used to simulate the evolution of some key variables on the long term, namely the evolution of the electricity price, of the demand and of the capacity factors of the technologies in the generation mix. This model can be used in different ways and by several agents, for instance to estimate the impact on the electricity price of the increasing presence of renewable power stations, namely using wind power and PV systems. In several countries these stations are paid feed-in tariffs with a fixed price but in some cases this scheme is under discussion and there are opinions that payments determined by the market price are more adequate and would bring fewer costs to final consumers. Such a change has to be carefully evaluated given that the presence of renewable stations bidding at an infra marginal price will affect the price itself. The model described in this paper can be used in a profitable way both by governmental agencies when preparing or studying alternative remuneration schemes to renewable stations or by promoters themselves to get more insight to the profitability of their investments, namely if the fixed feed-in tariffs in force in several countries are changed.

  13. An Economic Analysis of Textbook Pricing and Textbook Markets. ACSFA College Textbook Cost Study Plan Proposal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koch, James V.

    2006-01-01

    Between 1986 and 2004, textbook prices rose 186 percent in the United States, or slightly more than six percent per year. Meanwhile, other prices rose only about three percent per year. This paper examines the economic reasons why textbook prices have escalated so briskly and what reasonable alternatives are available that might slow down these…

  14. Determinants of immediate price impacts at the trade level in an emerging order-driven market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2012-02-01

    Common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, whereas small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while liquidity (especially price gaps on the limit order book) is a more influential factor. Hence, there might be other factors influencing the immediate price impacts of trades. In this paper, through mechanical analysis of price variations before and after a trade of arbitrary size, we identify that the trade size, the bid-ask spread, the price gaps and the outstanding volumes at the bid and ask sides of the limit order book have an impact on the changes in prices. We propose two regression models to investigate the influence of these microscopic factors on the price impact of buyer-initiated partially filled trades, seller-initiated partially filled trades, buyer-initiated filled trades and seller-initiated filled trades. We find that they have quantitatively similar explanatory powers and these factors can account for up to 44% of the price impacts. Large trade sizes, wide bid-ask spreads, high liquidity at the same side and low liquidity at the opposite side will cause a large price impact. We also find that the liquidity at the opposite side has a more influential impact than the liquidity at the same side. Our results shed new light on the determinants of immediate price impacts.

  15. The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    deBeurs, K.M.; Brown, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices

  16. Liver spots

    MedlinePlus

    Sun-induced skin changes - liver spots; Senile or solar lentigines; Skin spots - aging; Age spots ... Liver spots are changes in skin color that occur in older skin. The coloring may be due to aging, exposure to the sun ...

  17. Underlying dynamics of typical fluctuations of an emerging market price index: The Heston model from minutes to months

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vicente, Renato; de Toledo, Charles M.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

    2006-02-01

    We investigate the Heston model with stochastic volatility and exponential tails as a model for the typical price fluctuations of the Brazilian São Paulo Stock Exchange Index (IBOVESPA). Raw prices are first corrected for inflation and a period spanning 15 years characterized by memoryless returns is chosen for the analysis. Model parameters are estimated by observing volatility scaling and correlation properties. We show that the Heston model with at least two time scales for the volatility mean reverting dynamics satisfactorily describes price fluctuations ranging from time scales larger than 20 min to 160 days. At time scales shorter than 20 min we observe autocorrelated returns and power law tails incompatible with the Heston model. Despite major regulatory changes, hyperinflation and currency crises experienced by the Brazilian market in the period studied, the general success of the description provided may be regarded as an evidence for a general underlying dynamics of price fluctuations at intermediate mesoeconomic time scales well approximated by the Heston model. We also notice that the connection between the Heston model and Ehrenfest urn models could be exploited for bringing new insights into the microeconomic market mechanics.

  18. Pricing strategies in inelastic energy markets: can we use less if we can't extract more?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voinov, Alexey; Filatova, Tatiana

    2014-03-01

    Limited supply of nonrenewable energy resources under growing energy demand creates a situation when a marginal change in the quantity supplied or demanded causes non-marginal swings in price levels. The situation is worsened by the fact that we are currently running out of cheap energy resources at the global scale while adaptation to climate change requires extra energy costs. It is often argued that technology and alternative energy will be a solution. However, alternative energy infrastructure also requires additional energy investments, which can further increase the gap between energy demand and supply. This paper presents an explorative model that demonstrates that a smooth transition from an oil-based economy to alternative energy sources is possible only if it is started well in advance while fossil resources are still abundant. Later the transition looks much more dramatic and it becomes risky to rely entirely on technological solutions. It becomes increasingly likely that in addition to technological solutions that can increase supply we will need to find ways to decrease demand and consumption. We further argue that market mechanisms can be just as powerful tools to curb demand as they have traditionally been for stimulating consumption. We observe that individuals who consume more energy resources benefit at the expense of those who consume less, effectively imposing price externalities on the latters. We suggest two transparent and flexible methods of pricing that attempt to eliminate price externalities on energy resources. Such pricing schemes stimulate less consumption and can smooth the transition to renewable energy.

  19. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    SciTech Connect

    2009-11-04

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  20. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2011-10-06

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  1. Estimating organic, local, and other price premiums in the Hawaii fluid milk market.

    PubMed

    Loke, Matthew K; Xu, Xun; Leung, PingSun

    2015-04-01

    With retail scanner data, we applied hedonic price modeling to explore price premiums for organic, local, and other product attributes of fluid milk in Hawaii. Within the context of revealed preference, this analysis of organic and local attributes, under a single unified framework, is significant, as research in this area is deficient in the existing literature. This paper finds both organic and local attributes delivered price premiums over imported, conventional, whole fluid milk. However, the estimated price premium for organic milk (24.6%) is significantly lower than findings in the existing literature. Likewise, the price premium for the local attribute is estimated at 17.4%, again substantially lower compared with an earlier, stated preference study in Hawaii. Beyond that, we estimated a robust price premium of 19.7% for nutritional benefits claimed. The magnitude of this estimated coefficient reinforces the notion that nutrition information on food is deemed beneficial and valuable. Finally, package size measures the influence of product weight. With each larger package size, the estimate led to a corresponding larger price discount. This result is consistent with the practice of weight discounting that retailers usually offer with fresh packaged food. Additionally, we estimated a fairly high Armington elasticity of substitution, which suggests a relatively high degree of substitution between local and imported fluid milk when their relative price changes. Overall, this study establishes price premiums for organic, local, and nutrition benefits claimed for fluid milk in Hawaii. PMID:25704978

  2. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  3. NewsMarket 2.0: Analysis of News for Stock Price Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barazzetti, Alessandro; Mastronardi, Rosangela

    Most of the existing financial research tools use a stock's historical price and technical indicators to predict future price trends without taking into account the impact of web news. The recent explosion of demand for information on financial investment management is driving the search for alternative methods of quantitative data analysis.

  4. PHARMACEUTICAL PRICING IN EMERGING MARKETS: EFFECTS OF INCOME, COMPETITION, AND PROCUREMENT

    PubMed Central

    Danzon, Patricia M; Mulcahy, Andrew W; Towse, Adrian K

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes determinants of ex-manufacturer prices for originator and generic drugs across countries. We focus on drugs to treat HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria in middle and low-income countries (MLICs), with robustness checks to other therapeutic categories and the full income range of countries. We examine the effects of per capita income, income dispersion, competition from originator and generic substitutes, and whether the drugs are sold to retail pharmacies versus tendered procurement by non-government organizations. The cross-national income elasticity of prices is 0.27 across the full income range of countries but is 0.0–0.10 between MLICs, implying that drugs are least affordable relative to income in the lowest income countries. Within-country income inequality contributes to relatively high prices in MLICs. Although generics are priced roughly 30% lower than originators on average, the variance is large. Additional generic competitors only weakly affect prices, plausibly because generic quality uncertainty leads to competition on brand rather than price. Tendered procurement that imposes quality standards attracts multinational generic suppliers and significantly reduces prices of originator and generic drugs, compared with their respective prices to retail pharmacies. ©2013 The Authors. Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:24293058

  5. Pharmaceutical pricing in emerging markets: effects of income, competition, and procurement.

    PubMed

    Danzon, Patricia M; Mulcahy, Andrew W; Towse, Adrian K

    2015-02-01

    This paper analyzes determinants of ex-manufacturer prices for originator and generic drugs across countries. We focus on drugs to treat HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria in middle and low-income countries (MLICs), with robustness checks to other therapeutic categories and the full income range of countries. We examine the effects of per capita income, income dispersion, competition from originator and generic substitutes, and whether the drugs are sold to retail pharmacies versus tendered procurement by non-government organizations. The cross-national income elasticity of prices is 0.27 across the full income range of countries but is 0.0-0.10 between MLICs, implying that drugs are least affordable relative to income in the lowest income countries. Within-country income inequality contributes to relatively high prices in MLICs. Although generics are priced roughly 30% lower than originators on average, the variance is large. Additional generic competitors only weakly affect prices, plausibly because generic quality uncertainty leads to competition on brand rather than price. Tendered procurement that imposes quality standards attracts multinational generic suppliers and significantly reduces prices of originator and generic drugs, compared with their respective prices to retail pharmacies. PMID:24293058

  6. The case for OFSMOKE: how tobacco price regulation is needed to promote the health of markets, government revenue and the public

    PubMed Central

    Branston, J Robert; Sweanor, David

    2010-01-01

    Mainstream economic theory outlines four main causes of market failure and it is already well established that two of these (information failure and externalities) exist in a tobacco market. A third cause of market failure, market power, is also a serious problem in many tobacco markets. Market power—combined with unintended and often overlooked consequences of tobacco tax policies, notably that gradual increases in specific taxes may allow the industry to disguise significant price increases—has, at least in high income countries, given cigarette manufacturers considerable pricing power and profits. This paper examines ways this market failure could be addressed and proposes as a solution a system of price cap regulation wherein a cap is placed on the pre-tax cigarette manufacturers' price but not on the retail price that consumers face. Well established in the utilities industry, price cap regulation would set a maximum price that cigarette companies can charge for their product based on an assessment of the genuine costs each firm faces in its operations and an assumption about the efficiency savings it would be expected to make. Such a system would achieve three main benefits. First, it would address the problem of market failure and excess profits while simultaneously allowing current tobacco control policies, including tax and price increases, to expand—thus tax increases would remain a central tenet of tobacco control policies and retail prices could continue to increase. Second, it would increase government revenue by transferring the excess profits from the industry to the government purse. Third, it would bring numerous public health benefits. In addition to addressing market power, while simultaneously allowing tobacco control policies to expand, it could offer a means of preventing down-trading to cheaper products and controlling unwanted industry practices such as cigarette smuggling, price fixing and marketing to the young. The paper outlines in

  7. The impact of institutional constraints on the Limarí River Valley water market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadjigeorgalis, Ereney; Lillywhite, Jay

    2004-05-01

    Institutional constraints on water and water rights trades are usually implemented to reduce the potential costs of free trade in water rights, but these constrains are themselves not without cost. Using data on permanent water rights and annual spot water transactions in the Limarí River Valley of northern Chile, we test for trade barrier-induced price differences in the constrained permanent water rights market versus the unconstrained spot water market and then estimate the welfare losses generated as a result of these restrictions. We find that trade barriers in the permanent water rights market cause prices to diverge across adjacent irrigation districts for homogenous water rights despite the fact that prices equalize across irrigation districts in the unconstrained spot water market. The resulting estimates of welfare losses from these barriers in the permanent water rights market are found to be significant.

  8. Informal household water market and determinants of price: Evidence from an Indian hill city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal, Manoranjan; De, Utpal Kumar

    2015-02-01

    Pricing of water in the hill cities in India is different from that of plain lands, because water is a scarce resource in most of the hill cities. The supply of water by the municipalities is inadequate. The private vendors come into picture and they put the prices according to the difficulties faced in supplying to the specific locations. Thus prices become variables and are also based on the economic demand-supply mechanism in which the households try to maximise their satisfaction subject to budget and other constraints, while the vendors try to extract as much benefit as possible from the buyers. This paper tries to examine the pricing of household water use in Shillong urban area, India and the impact of various factors including income, house rent, seasonal scarcity of water, capacity of municipal supply, household size on the price-quantity determination. The analysis is made in terms of a simultaneous equation framework and the model is applied to a data collected by stratified random sampling technique across the municipal wards and non-municipal segments of greater Shillong urban Agglomeration. The result of three stage least squares reveals significant positive impacts of income, scarcity of water on the demand price while significantly negative impacts of quantity purchased, extent of municipal supply, house rent paid on the demand price. But the household size does not have any significant impact on the demand price though large household is expected to require more water. The supply of water on the other hand is not significantly affected by price, extent of municipal supply and deficiency though the coefficients are in the expected line.

  9. Volume up, prices down: An industry dilemma

    SciTech Connect

    1994-04-01

    This article is an overview of the spot market prices and trading volume in U3O8 and Separative Work Units. The time frame covered is March/April 1994, and during this period, 7.1M pounds of U3O8 equivalent were traded in the spot concentrate sector, approximately 10M pounds of long-term contracts were signed, conversion services for approximately 5M kilograms of Uranium were dealt, and enrichment services for approximately 2M SWU were agreed upon.

  10. The Potential for Accurately Measuring Behavioral and Economic Dimensions of Consumption, Prices, and Markets for Illegal Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Bruce D.; Golub, Andrew

    2007-01-01

    There are numerous analytic and methodological limitations to current measures of drug market activity. This paper explores the structure of markets and individual user behavior to provide an integrated understanding of behavioral and economic (and market) aspects of illegal drug use with an aim toward developing improved procedures for measurement. This involves understanding the social processes that structure illegal distribution networks and drug users’ interactions with them. These networks are where and how social behaviors, prices, and markets for illegal drugs intersect. Our focus is upon getting an up close measurement of these activities. Building better measures of consumption behaviors necessitates building better rapport with subjects than typically achieved with one-time surveys in order to overcome withholding and underreporting and to get a comprehensive understanding of the processes involved. This can be achieved through repeated interviews and observations of behaviors. This paper also describes analytic advances that could be adopted to direct this inquiry including behavioral templates, and insights into the economic valuation of labor inputs and cash expenditures for various illegal drugs. Additionally, the paper makes recommendations to funding organizations for developing the mechanisms that would support behavioral scientists to weigh specimens and to collect small samples for laboratory analysis—by providing protection from the potential for arrest. The primary focus is upon U.S. markets. The implications for other countries are discussed. PMID:16978801

  11. Market review - market values summary/June market review/current market data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-01

    This article is the June 1995 uranium market summary. In this reporting period, there were five concentrates transactions, two long-term natural uranium transactions, two natural UF6 transactions, three long-term enrichment transactions, but there were no spot conversion or enrichment deals. Active uranium supply and demand both fell sharply, but the supply/demand ratio rose. Prices were steady to increasing.

  12. Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Xiaoyang; Wei, Yu; Ma, Feng

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, the multifractality and efficiency degrees of ten important Chinese sectoral indices are evaluated using the methods of MF-DFA and generalized Hurst exponents. The study also scrutinizes the dynamics of the efficiency of Chinese sectoral stock market by the rolling window approach. The overall empirical findings revealed that all the sectoral indices of Chinese stock market exist different degrees of multifractality. The results of different efficiency measures have agreed on that the 300 Materials index is the least efficient index. However, they have a slight diffidence on the most efficient one. The 300 Information Technology, 300 Telecommunication Services and 300 Health Care indices are comparatively efficient. We also investigate the cross-correlations between the ten sectoral indices and WTI crude oil price based on Multifractal Detrended Cross-correlation Analysis. At last, some relevant discussions and implications of the empirical results are presented.

  13. Marketing Little Cigars and Cigarillos: Advertising, Price, and Associations With Neighborhood Demographics

    PubMed Central

    Kreslake, Jennifer M.; Ganz, Ollie; Pearson, Jennifer L.; Vallone, Donna; Anesetti-Rothermel, Andrew; Xiao, Haijun; Kirchner, Thomas R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. We have documented little cigar and cigarillo (LCC) availability, advertising, and price in the point-of-sale environment and examined associations with neighborhood demographics. Methods. We used a multimodal real-time surveillance system to survey LCCs in 750 licensed tobacco retail outlets that sold tobacco products in Washington, DC. Using multivariate models, we examined the odds of LCC availability, the number of storefront exterior advertisements, and the price per cigarillo for Black & Mild packs in relation to neighborhood demographics. Results. The odds of LCC availability and price per cigarillo decreased significantly in nearly a dose-response manner with each quartile increase in proportion of African Americans. Prices were also lower in some young adult neighborhoods. Having a higher proportion of African American and young adult residents was associated with more exterior LCC advertising. Conclusions. Higher availability of LCCs in African American communities and lower prices and greater outdoor advertising in minority and young adult neighborhoods may establish environmental triggers to smoke among groups susceptible to initiation, addiction, and long-term negative health consequences. PMID:23948008

  14. Two essays on electricity markets: Entry into hydroelectric generation industry and the political cycle of regulated prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simoes

    This dissertation is about the electricity industry and the problems that arise with the liberalization and de-regulation of the industry. Characteristics intrinsic to the electricity market create problems that can compromise an efficient functioning of this market. Each of the two chapters of this dissertation focus on a specific aspect of this industry. The first chapter analyzes entry in the hydroelectric generation industry. The operation of a generator upstream regularizes the river flow for generators located downstream on the same river, increasing the production capacity of the latter. This positive externality increases the attractiveness of the locations downstream whenever a generator decides to enter upstream. Therefore, the entry decision of a generator in a given location may affect all entry decisions in potential locations for plants located downstream. I first model the problem of generators located in cascade on the same river and show the positive effect of the externality. Second, I use a panel of data on investment decisions of hydro-generation firms to estimate an entry model that takes into account the effect of the externality generated by entry upriver. The results show a positive incentive to locate downstream from existing plants and from locations where entry is likely to occur. Location characteristics also play an important role on the entrants' decisions. The model provides estimates of the average expected market price across the different years covered by the sample and shows that it rose one year before the energy crisis of 2001, evidencing that the market anticipated the crisis. This result has important implications on the evaluation of the Brazilian market design. It shows that entry responded to a rise in expectations about excess demand in the future, contradicting the argument that the crisis was a consequence of mis-designed market institutions. The second chapter deals with the problem of the political cycle in regulated

  15. Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook for 1980 through 1988

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Costogue, E. N.; Ferber, R. R.

    1984-01-01

    The results of the second JPL update to an original report to assess the availability and prices of polycrystalline Si for solar cells in the 1983-88 interval are reported. It is noted that the demand for poly-Si for solar cells competes with the demand for the same material for semiconductors, although the solar cell industry can use material rejected from the semiconductor industry. A sufficient supply is projected for the 6 yr period, rising from 3224 metric tons to 10,220 metric tons in 1988, with prices dropping from the 1980 level of $140/kg to $25/kg. The price reduction and improved production are noted to be due in large part to DOE efforts at defining lower-cost production processes.

  16. Going Cheap: Determinants of Bird Price in the Taiwanese Pet Market

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background International wildlife trade is the largest emerging source of vertebrate invasive alien species. In order to prevent invasions, it is essential to understand the mechanics of trade and, in particular, which traded species are most likely to be released or escape into the wild. A species’ economic value is a key factor, because we expect cheaper species to be less assiduously secured against escaping, and more likely to be deliberately released. Here, we investigate determinants of the price of species in the Taiwanese bird trade. Taiwan is an international hub for bird trade, and several native species are threatened by alien bird species. Methodology We investigated the relationship between the traded species sale price in Taiwan and the species availability for trade (the number of birds for sale, geographic range size and their origin, conservation and CITES status) and traits (body size, coloration, song attractiveness). We used phylogenetic generalized least squares models, with multi-model inference, to assess the variables that are best related to the price of birds in the Taiwanese pet trade. Principal Findings / Conclusions We found that species available for sale in larger numbers, native to Taiwan, not globally endangered, and small-bodied are all relatively cheaper, as too are species lacking yellow coloration and without attractive songs. Our models of price revealed high levels of phylogenetic correlation, and hence that closely related species tended to be sold for similar prices. We suggest that, on the basis of price, native species are more likely to be deliberately or accidentally released than alien species. Nevertheless, our survey of bird shops recorded 160 species alien to Taiwan (7,631 individuals), several of which are for sale cheaply and in large numbers. Alien bird species in trade therefore present an ongoing, non-trivial invasion risk on the island. PMID:26017386

  17. Liver spots

    MedlinePlus

    Sun-induced skin changes - liver spots; Senile or solar lentigines; Skin spots - aging; Age spots ... Liver spots are changes in skin color that occur in older skin. The coloring may be due to aging, exposure to the sun or other sources of ...

  18. Analysis of the Pricing Process in Electricity Market using Multi-Agent Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimomura, Takahiro; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    Many electric utilities world-wide have been forced to change their ways of doing business, from vertically integrated mechanisms to open market systems. We are facing urgent issues about how we design the structures of power market systems. In order to settle down these issues, many studies have been made with market models of various characteristics and regulations. The goal of modeling analysis is to enrich our understanding of fundamental process that may appear. However, there are many kinds of modeling methods. Each has drawback and advantage about validity and versatility. This paper presents two kinds of methods to construct multi-agent market models. One is based on game theory and another is based on reinforcement learning. By comparing the results of the two methods, they can advance in validity and help us figure out potential problems in electricity markets which have oligopolistic generators, demand fluctuation and inelastic demand. Moreover, this model based on reinforcement learning enables us to consider characteristics peculiar to electricity markets which have plant unit characteristics, seasonable and hourly demand fluctuation, real-time regulation market and operating reserve market. This model figures out importance of the share of peak-load-plants and the way of designing operating reserve market.

  19. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors...

  20. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors...

  1. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors...

  2. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors...

  3. 7 CFR 1000.53 - Announcement of class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... advanced pricing factors. 1000.53 Section 1000.53 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture..., component prices, and advanced pricing factors. (a) On or before the 5th day of the month, the market... administrator for each Federal milk marketing order shall announce the following prices and pricing factors...

  4. Research on the Use of Educational Products: (4) Marketing Research: At What Prices?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosenau, Fred S.

    The production and distribution of educational materials developed by researchers is considered. The current practice of turning over federally or foundation funded products to commercial producers raises the question of pricing policies of these firms as compared to the policies of nonprofit development agencies. Comparative costs of producing…

  5. Marketing Continuing Education: A Study of Price Strategies. Occasional Papers in Continuing Education, No. 11.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamoureux, Marvin E.

    The objective of the study conducted at the Centre for Continuing Education (CCE) at the University of British Columbia was to determine that threshold pricing not only existed for continuing education courses, but also was applicable to an administrative decision-making structure. The first part of the three-part investigation analyzed consumer…

  6. 77 FR 22282 - Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of Equivalent Price Series

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-13

    ... dairy product sales data was transferred from NASS to AMS effective April, 1, 2012 (77 FR 8717), at... reporting system (77 FR 8717) and, as part of that rulemaking, it also announced the transfer of the... Agricultural Marketing Service Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of...

  7. Priceless prices and marine food webs: Long-term patterns of change and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight as reflected by the seafood market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pincinato, R. B. M.; Gasalla, M. A.

    2010-10-01

    The lack of market variables in fishery systems (i.e., prices and quantities) has often been cited as one reason for the particular difficulty of understanding whole marine ecosystem change and its management under a broader ecosystem perspective. This paper shows the results of efforts to tackle this problem in the South Brazil Bight by compiling and analyzing in-depth an unprecedented 40-year database from the region’s largest wholesale seafood market, based in the megacity of São Paulo. Fishery landings and market values for the period 1968-2007 were analyzed primarily by updated trophic level classes and multispecies indicators including the (1) marine trophic index (MTI), (2) weighted price, and (3) log relative price index (LRPI) which relates prices and trophic levels. Moreover, an inferential analysis of major seafood category statistical trends in market prices and quantities and their positive and negative correlations was undertaken. In general, these market trends contributed substantially to identifying and clarifying the changes that occurred. Considerations of the behavior of demand, supply and markets are included. In particular, while the MTI did not support a “fishing down the marine food web” hypothesis, other indicators did show the continued scarcity of major high trophic level categories and fisheries target species. Overall, the results indicate that the analysis of fishery landings, or of certain other indicators alone, can mask real changes. Rather, a joint ecological-econometric analysis provides better evidence of the direction of ecosystem pressures and stock health. This method for detecting market changes across the food web may be particularly helpful for systems considered data-poor but where fish market data have been archived. This study further elucidates historical changes and fishing impacts in the South Brazil Bight ecosystem.

  8. Information-Constrained Optima with Retrading: An Externality and Its Market-Based Solution☆

    PubMed Central

    Kilenthong, Weerachart T.; Townsend, Robert M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the efficiency of competitive equilibria in environments with a moral hazard problem and unobserved states, both with retrading in ex post spot markets. The interaction between private information problems and the possibility of retrade creates an externality, unless preferences have special, restrictive properties. The externality is internalized by allowing agents to contract ex ante on market fundamentals determining the spot price or interest rate, over and above contracting on actions and outputs. Then competitive equilibria are equivalent with the appropriate notion of constrained Pareto optimality. Examples show that it is possible to have multiple market fundamentals or price-islands, created endogenously in equilibrium. PMID:21765540

  9. Retail marijuana purchases in designer and commercial markets in New York City: sales units, weights, and prices per gram.

    PubMed

    Sifaneck, Stephen J; Ream, Geoffrey L; Johnson, Bruce D; Dunlap, Eloise

    2007-09-01

    This paper documents the bifurcation of the market for commercial marijuana from the market for designer marijuana in New York City. Commercial marijuana is usually grown outdoors, imported to NYC, and of average quality. By contrast, several varities of designer marijuana are usually grown indoors from specially bred strains and carefully handled for maximum quality. The mechanisms for marijuana sales include street/park sellers, delivery services, private sales, and storefronts. Retail sales units vary from 5 dollars to 50 dollars and more, but the actual weights and price per gram of retail marijuana purchases lacks scientific precision. Ethnographic staff recruited marijuana purchasers who used digital scales to weigh a purposive sample of 99 marijuana purchases. Results indicate clear differences in price per gram between the purchases of commercial (average 8.20 dollars/g) and designer (average 18.02 dollars/g) marijuana. Designer purchases are more likely to be made by whites, downtown (Lower East Side/Union Square area), via delivery services, and in units of 10 dollar bags, 50 dollar cubes, and eighth and quarter ounces. Commercial marijuana purchases are more likely to be made by blacks, uptown (Harlem), via street dealers, and in units of 5 dollar and 20 dollar bags. Imported commercial types Arizona and Chocolate were only found uptown, while designer brand names describing actual strains like Sour Diesel and White Widow were only found downtown. Findings indicate clear divisions between commercial and designer marijuana markets in New York City. The extent that these differences may be based upon different THC potencies is a matter for future research. PMID:17055670

  10. Retail Marijuana Purchases in Designer and Commercial Markets in New York City: Sales Units, Weights, and Prices per Gram

    PubMed Central

    Sifaneck, Stephen J.; Ream, Geoffrey L.; Johnson, Bruce D.; Dunlap, Eloise

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the bifurcation of the market for commercial marijuana from the market for designer marijuana in New York City. Commercial marijuana is usually grown outdoors, imported to NYC, and of average quality. By contrast, several strains of designer marijuana are usually grown indoors from specially-bred strains and carefully handled for maximum quality. The mechanisms for selling include street/park sellers, delivery services, private sales, and storefronts. Retail sales units vary from $5 to $50 and more, but the actual weights and price per gram of retail marijuana purchases lacks scientific precision. Ethnographic staff recruited marijuana purchasers who used digital scales to weigh a purposive sample of 99 marijuana purchases. Results indicate clear differences in price per gram between the purchases of commercial (avg. $8.20/gram) and designer (avg. $18.02/gram) marijuana. Designer purchases are more likely to be made by whites, downtown (Lower East Side/Union Square area), via delivery services, and in units of $10 bags, $50 cubes, and eighth and quarter ounces. Commercial marijuana purchases are more likely to be made by blacks, uptown (Harlem), via street dealers, and in units of $5 and $20 bags. Imported commercial types Arizona and Chocolate were only found uptown, while designer brand names describing actual strains like Sour Diesel and White Widow were only found downtown. Findings indicate clear divisions between commercial and designer marijuana markets in New York City. The extent that these differences may be based upon different THC potencies is a matter for future research. PMID:17055670

  11. World nuclear fuel market. Seventeenth annual meeting

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    The papers presented at the seventeenth World Nuclear Fuels Market meeting are cataloged individually. This volume includes information on the following areas of interest: historical and current aspects of the uranium and plutonium market with respect to supply and demand, pricing, spot market purchasing, and other market phenomena; impact of reprocessing and recycling uranium, plutonium, and mixed oxide fuels; role of individual countries in the market: Hungary, Germany, the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, France, and the US; the impact of public opinion and radioactive waste management on the nuclear industry, and a debate regarding long term versus short term contracting by electric utilities for uranium and enrichment services.

  12. Analyzing reliability of virtual machine instances with dynamic pricing in the public cloud

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, Seung-Hwan; Thakur, Gautam; Horey, James L

    2014-01-01

    This study presents reliability analysis of virtual machine instances in public cloud environments in the face of dynamic pricing. Different from traditional fixed pricing, dynamic pricing allows price to dynamically fluctuate over arbitrary period of time according to external factors such as supply and demand, excess capacity, etc. This pricing option introduces a new type of fault: virtual machine instances may be unexpectedly terminated due to conflicts in the original bid price and the current offered price. This new class of fault under dynamic pricing may be more dominant than traditional faults in cloud computing environments, where resource availability associated with traditional faults is often above 99.9%. To address and understand this new type of fault, we translated two classic reliability metrics, mean time between failures and availability, to the Amazon Web Services spot market using historical price data. We also validated our findings by submitting actual bids in the spot market. We found that overall, our historical analysis and experimental validation lined up well. Based upon these experimental results, we also provided suggestions and techniques to maximize overall reliability of virtual machine instances under dynamic pricing.

  13. ℓ(p)-Norm multikernel learning approach for stock market price forecasting.

    PubMed

    Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

    2012-01-01

    Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ(p)-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression model. PMID:23365561

  14. Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook study for 1980 to 88: January 1983 update

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Costogue, E.; Pellin, R.

    1983-01-01

    Photovoltaic solar cell arrays which convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective, alternative energy source provided that an adequate supply of low priced materials and automated fabrication techniques are available. Presently, silicon is the most promising cell material for achieving the near term cost goals of the Photovoltaics Program. Electronic grade silicon is produced primarily for the semiconductor industry with the photovoltaic industry using, in most cases, the production rejects of slightly lower grade material. Therefore, the future availability of adequate supplies of low cost silicon is one of the major concerns of the Photovoltaic Program. The supply outlook for silicon with emphasis on pricing is updated and is based primarily on an industry survey conducted by a JPL consultant. This survey included interviews with polycrystalline silicon manufacturers, a large cross section of silicon users and silicon solar cell manufacturers.

  15. ℓ p-Norm Multikernel Learning Approach for Stock Market Price Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

    2012-01-01

    Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ1-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓp-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ1-norm multiple support vector regression model. PMID:23365561

  16. Asset price dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous trading strategies and time delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sansone, Alessandro; Garofalo, Giuseppe

    2007-08-01

    In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian agents who process market information with different time delays. Each class of investors is characterized by path dependent risk aversion. We also allow for the possibility of evolutionary switching between trend following and contrarian strategies. We find that the system shows periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics as well as synchronization between technical traders. Furthermore, the model is able to generate time series of returns that exhibit statistical properties similar to those of the S&P 500 index, which is characterized by excess kurtosis, volatility clustering and long memory.

  17. Mechanistic approach to generalized technical analysis of share prices and stock market indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.

    2002-05-01

    Classical technical analysis methods of stock evolution are recalled, i.e. the notion of moving averages and momentum indicators. The moving averages lead to define death and gold crosses, resistance and support lines. Momentum indicators lead the price trend, thus give signals before the price trend turns over. The classical technical analysis investment strategy is thereby sketched. Next, we present a generalization of these tricks drawing on physical principles, i.e. taking into account not only the price of a stock but also the volume of transactions. The latter becomes a time dependent generalized mass. The notion of pressure, acceleration and force are deduced. A generalized (kinetic) energy is easily defined. It is understood that the momentum indicators take into account the sign of the fluctuations, while the energy is geared toward the absolute value of the fluctuations. They have different patterns which are checked by searching for the crossing points of their respective moving averages. The case of IBM evolution over 1990-2000 is used for illustrations.

  18. Quantifying the behavior of price dynamics at opening time in stock market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ochiai, Tomoshiro; Takada, Hideyuki; Nacher, Jose C.

    2014-11-01

    The availability of huge volume of financial data has offered the possibility for understanding the markets as a complex system characterized by several stylized facts. Here we first show that the time evolution of the Japan’s Nikkei stock average index (Nikkei 225) futures follows the resistance and breaking-acceleration effects when the complete time series data is analyzed. However, in stock markets there are periods where no regular trades occur between the close of the market on one day and the next day’s open. To examine these time gaps we decompose the time series data into opening time and intermediate time. Our analysis indicates that for the intermediate time, both the resistance and the breaking-acceleration effects are still observed. However, for the opening time there are almost no resistance and breaking-acceleration effects, and volatility is always constantly high. These findings highlight unique dynamic differences between stock markets and forex market and suggest that current risk management strategies may need to be revised to address the absence of these dynamic effects at the opening time.

  19. Pricing health behavior interventions to promote adoption: lessons from the marketing and business literature.

    PubMed

    Ribisl, Kurt M; Leeman, Jennifer; Glasser, Allison M

    2014-06-01

    The relatively high cost of delivering many public health interventions limits their potential for broad public impact by reducing their likelihood of adoption and maintenance over time. Practitioners identify cost as the primary factor for which interventions they select to implement, but researchers rarely disseminate cost information or consider its importance when developing new interventions. A new approach is proposed whereby intervention developers assess what individuals and agencies adopting their interventions are willing to pay and then design interventions that are responsive to this price range. The ultimate goal is to develop effective and affordable interventions, called lean interventions, which are widely adopted and have greater public health impact. PMID:24842743

  20. Quality defects in market beef and dairy cows and bulls sold through livestock auction markets in the Western United States: II. Relative effects on selling price.

    PubMed

    Ahola, J K; Foster, H A; Vanoverbeke, D L; Jensen, K S; Wilson, R L; Glaze, J B; Fife, T E; Gray, C W; Nash, S A; Panting, R R; Rimbey, N R

    2011-05-01

    Relative effects of Beef Quality Assurance (BQA)-related defects in market beef and dairy cows and bulls on selling price at auction was evaluated during 2008. The presence and severity of 23 BQA-related traits were determined during sales in Idaho, California, and Utah. Overall, 18,949 unique lots consisting of 23,479 animals were assessed during 125 dairy sales and 79 beef sales. Mean sale price ± SD (per 45.5 kg) for market beef cows, beef bulls, dairy cows, and dairy bulls was $45.15 ± 9.42, $56.30 ± 9.21, $42.23 ± 12.26, and $55.10 ± 9.07, respectively. When combined, all recorded traits explained 36% of the variation in selling price in beef cows, 35% in beef bulls, 61% in dairy cows, and 56% in dairy bulls. Premiums and discounts were determined in comparison with a "par" or "base" animal. Compared with a base BCS 5 beef cow (on a 9-point beef scale), BCS 1 to 4 cows were discounted (P < 0.0001), whereas premiums (P < 0.05) were estimated for BCS 6 to 8. Compared with a base BCS 3.0 dairy cow (on a 5-point dairy scale), more body condition resulted in a premium (P ≤ 0.001), whereas a less-than-desirable BCS of 2.0 or 2.5 was discounted (P < 0.0001). Emaciated or near-emaciated cows (beef BCS 1 or 2; dairy BCS 1.0 or 1.5) were discounted (P < 0.0001). Compared with base cows weighing 545 to 635 kg, lighter BW beef cows were discounted (P < 0.0001), whereas heavier beef cows received (P < 0.05) a premium. Compared with a base dairy cow weighing 636 to 727 kg, lighter BW cows were discounted (P < 0.0001), whereas heavier cows (727 to 909 kg) received a premium (P < 0.01). Beef and dairy cows with any evidence of lameness were discounted (P < 0.0001). Presence of ocular neoplasia in the precancerous stage discounted (P = 0.05) beef cows and discounted (P < 0.01) dairy cows, whereas at the cancerous stage, it discounted (P < 0.0001) all cows. Hide color influenced (P < 0.0001) selling price in beef cattle but had no effect (P = 0.17) in dairy cows. Animals

  1. Advance price or purchase commitments to create markets for treatments for diseases of poverty: lessons from three policies.

    PubMed Central

    Towse, Adrian; Kettler, Hannah

    2005-01-01

    New drugs and vaccines are needed for tackling diseases of poverty in low- and middle-income countries. The lack of effective demand or market for these products translates into insufficient investment being made in research and development to meet the need for them. Many have advocated cost-reducing (push) and market-enhancing (pull) incentives to tackle this problem. Advance price or purchase commitments (APPCs) funded by international agencies and governments offer one way forward. This paper looks at design issues for APPCs for drugs and vaccines for diseases of poverty drawing on experience and lessons from three case studies: the introduction of the meningitis C vaccine in the United Kingdom; the Orphan Drug Act (ODA) in the United States of America (US); and the newly legislated US Project BioShield for bioterrorist interventions. Our key conclusion is that that APPCs have the potential to be a powerful tool and should be tried. The correct structure and design may only be determined through the process of taking action to set one up. PMID:15868022

  2. Advance price or purchase commitments to create markets for treatments for diseases of poverty: lessons from three policies.

    PubMed

    Towse, Adrian; Kettler, Hannah

    2005-04-01

    New drugs and vaccines are needed for tackling diseases of poverty in low- and middle-income countries. The lack of effective demand or market for these products translates into insufficient investment being made in research and development to meet the need for them. Many have advocated cost-reducing (push) and market-enhancing (pull) incentives to tackle this problem. Advance price or purchase commitments (APPCs) funded by international agencies and governments offer one way forward. This paper looks at design issues for APPCs for drugs and vaccines for diseases of poverty drawing on experience and lessons from three case studies: the introduction of the meningitis C vaccine in the United Kingdom; the Orphan Drug Act (ODA) in the United States of America (US); and the newly legislated US Project BioShield for bioterrorist interventions. Our key conclusion is that that APPCs have the potential to be a powerful tool and should be tried. The correct structure and design may only be determined through the process of taking action to set one up. PMID:15868022

  3. Pricing Information Products and Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broadbent, H. E., III

    1981-01-01

    Outlines several approaches to the establishment of prices for information products and services by the administrators of libraries and information centers, including optimization, pricing to achieve organizational objectives, pricing for market structures, and types of market structure pricing systems. A reference list is included. (JL)

  4. The recent situation of technology exchange in Europe: On-the spot study on movement toward integration of EC market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawasaki, Jun'ichi; Hyoki, Yasuyoshi

    The political and economic environment of EC has been changing drastically aiming at the EC market integration in 1992. Economy in EC has been stagnant among free economy world covering U.S., Japan and Europe, which is due to lag in the structural adjustment as well as decline in international competitive ability. EC recognizes that development of science and technology of which core is highly advanced technology is driving force for activating economy within the Community. This is the first motivation for EC to take one step forward toward the market integration. Such EC's determination is reflected in pushing forward conception of European technological community represented by EUREKA Project. Products Exhibitions, Science and Technology Trade Fairs and so on, which are held in EC countries, emphasize "Europe characterized by Technology" being conscious of the market integration three and a half years ahead. EC is also eager to construct database networks both inside and outside the Community to catch up with the progress in technology.

  5. The compass rose pattern in electricity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Hamada, Mahmoud

    2009-12-01

    The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

  6. The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

    PubMed

    Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

    2009-12-01

    The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics. PMID:20059202

  7. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price...

  8. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price...

  9. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price...

  10. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price...

  11. 7 CFR 1000.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1000.54 Section 1000.54 Agriculture... Prices § 1000.54 Equivalent price. If for any reason a price or pricing constituent required for computing the prices described in § 1000.50 is not available, the market administrator shall use a price...

  12. Anomalous Aspects of Pricing in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanikoski, Richard A.

    1989-01-01

    Discusses six propositions concerning higher education contradicting prevailing pricing wisdom: high demand rarely drives prices up; market share increases rarely drive prices down; competition drives prices up; tuition prices are only loosely tied to delivery costs; student tuition is only loosely tied to price; and high tuition prices do not…

  13. Lead and the London Metal Exchange — a happy marriage? The outlook for prices and pricing issues confronting the lead industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keen, A.

    The outlook for the supply-demand balance for refined lead is addressed and takes into account the growing non-fundamental forces on price determination. The market for refined lead is presently experiencing its first year of surplus since the major crisis of the early 1990s. Earlier in the decade, the dissolution of the Soviet Union and recession in developed economies led to a significant rise in London Metal Exchange (LME) stocks. An acceleration absorbed these stocks in an 18-month period in the mid-1990s, and LME lead prices reacted to the market deficit by peaking above US900. Since then the market has balanced, yet prices have declined steadily to less that 50% of their peak levels. It is argued that, on fundamental grounds, prices have fallen below justified levels. As much of the reason for this depression between 1997 and 1999 has been the generally depressive effect of the Asian economic crisis on financial markets, the level of lead prices may now be due for a correction. Other metals have begun to increase during the first half of 1999 and lead, given its neutral fundamental outlook, is now poised to participate in the generally more buoyant moods across LME metals. An increase of approximately 10% in average LME 3-month settlement prices is forecast and will result in annual average prices of US 570/tonne over the course of 1999. Monthly averages and spot prices are predicted to exceed this level, particularly during peak third-quarter demand.

  14. A new reimbursement system for innovative pharmaceuticals combining value-based and free market pricing.

    PubMed

    Persson, Ulf; Svensson, Johanna; Pettersson, Billie

    2012-07-01

    Sweden has experienced a national value-based pricing (VBP) system for innovative outpatient drugs operated by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Board - LFN (now called the Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits agency - TLV) since 2002. VBP has the character of a monopoly system, leading to reimbursement decisions where usage of new medicines is limited to subgroups and not the population for which the drug is approved. VBP relies on a broad societal perspective, encouraging innovations by signaling to firms that value-adding treatments are demanded. However, the VBP system is operated without a drug budget responsibility. The budget responsibility lies at the regional level, not operating VBP, thus an intrinsic conflict is built into the system. The aim of this article is to suggest a modification to the current reimbursement system in Sweden where payment for pharmaceuticals is split between the regional and national levels. The system is expected to make new innovative pharmaceuticals accessible to a larger number of patients and provide more consumer surplus without reducing the producer surplus. In short, the county councils pay the marginal cost of production while the state pays for the innovation. PMID:22676213

  15. The generalized STAR(1,1) modeling with time correlated errors to red-chili weekly prices of some traditional markets in Bandung, West Java

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nisa Fadlilah F., I.; Mukhaiyar, Utriweni; Fahmi, Fauzia

    2015-12-01

    The observations at a certain location may be linearly influenced by the previous times of observations at that location and neighbor locations, which could be analyzed by Generalized STAR(1,1). In this paper, the weekly red-chili prices secondary-data of five main traditional markets in Bandung are used as case study. The purpose of GSTAR(1,1) model is to forecast the next time red-chili prices at those markets. The model is identified by sample space-time ACF and space-time PACF, and model parameters are estimated by least square estimation method. Theoretically, the errors' independency assumption could simplify the parameter estimation's problem. However, practically that assumption is hard to satisfy since the errors may be correlated each other's. In red-chili prices modeling, it is considered that the process has time-correlated errors, i.e. martingale difference process, instead of follow normal distribution. Here, we do some simulations to investigate the behavior of errors' assumptions. Although some of results show that the behavior of the errors' model are not always followed the martingale difference process, it does not corrupt the goodness of GSTAR(1,1) model to forecast the red-chili prices at those five markets.

  16. Mesoscopic Community Structure of Financial Markets Revealed by Price and Sign Fluctuations

    PubMed Central

    Almog, Assaf; Besamusca, Ferry; MacMahon, Mel; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2015-01-01

    The mesoscopic organization of complex systems, from financial markets to the brain, is an intermediate between the microscopic dynamics of individual units (stocks or neurons, in the mentioned cases), and the macroscopic dynamics of the system as a whole. The organization is determined by “communities” of units whose dynamics, represented by time series of activity, is more strongly correlated internally than with the rest of the system. Recent studies have shown that the binary projections of various financial and neural time series exhibit nontrivial dynamical features that resemble those of the original data. This implies that a significant piece of information is encoded into the binary projection (i.e. the sign) of such increments. Here, we explore whether the binary signatures of multiple time series can replicate the same complex community organization of the financial market, as the original weighted time series. We adopt a method that has been specifically designed to detect communities from cross-correlation matrices of time series data. Our analysis shows that the simpler binary representation leads to a community structure that is almost identical with that obtained using the full weighted representation. These results confirm that binary projections of financial time series contain significant structural information. PMID:26226226

  17. Molecular descriptor data explain market prices of a large commercial chemical compound library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polanski, Jaroslaw; Kucia, Urszula; Duszkiewicz, Roksana; Kurczyk, Agata; Magdziarz, Tomasz; Gasteiger, Johann

    2016-06-01

    The relationship between the structure and a property of a chemical compound is an essential concept in chemistry guiding, for example, drug design. Actually, however, we need economic considerations to fully understand the fate of drugs on the market. We are performing here for the first time the exploration of quantitative structure-economy relationships (QSER) for a large dataset of a commercial building block library of over 2.2 million chemicals. This investigation provided molecular statistics that shows that on average what we are paying for is the quantity of matter. On the other side, the influence of synthetic availability scores is also revealed. Finally, we are buying substances by looking at the molecular graphs or molecular formulas. Thus, those molecules that have a higher number of atoms look more attractive and are, on average, also more expensive. Our study shows how data binning could be used as an informative method when analyzing big data in chemistry.

  18. Molecular descriptor data explain market prices of a large commercial chemical compound library

    PubMed Central

    Polanski, Jaroslaw; Kucia, Urszula; Duszkiewicz, Roksana; Kurczyk, Agata; Magdziarz, Tomasz; Gasteiger, Johann

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between the structure and a property of a chemical compound is an essential concept in chemistry guiding, for example, drug design. Actually, however, we need economic considerations to fully understand the fate of drugs on the market. We are performing here for the first time the exploration of quantitative structure-economy relationships (QSER) for a large dataset of a commercial building block library of over 2.2 million chemicals. This investigation provided molecular statistics that shows that on average what we are paying for is the quantity of matter. On the other side, the influence of synthetic availability scores is also revealed. Finally, we are buying substances by looking at the molecular graphs or molecular formulas. Thus, those molecules that have a higher number of atoms look more attractive and are, on average, also more expensive. Our study shows how data binning could be used as an informative method when analyzing big data in chemistry. PMID:27334348

  19. Molecular descriptor data explain market prices of a large commercial chemical compound library.

    PubMed

    Polanski, Jaroslaw; Kucia, Urszula; Duszkiewicz, Roksana; Kurczyk, Agata; Magdziarz, Tomasz; Gasteiger, Johann

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between the structure and a property of a chemical compound is an essential concept in chemistry guiding, for example, drug design. Actually, however, we need economic considerations to fully understand the fate of drugs on the market. We are performing here for the first time the exploration of quantitative structure-economy relationships (QSER) for a large dataset of a commercial building block library of over 2.2 million chemicals. This investigation provided molecular statistics that shows that on average what we are paying for is the quantity of matter. On the other side, the influence of synthetic availability scores is also revealed. Finally, we are buying substances by looking at the molecular graphs or molecular formulas. Thus, those molecules that have a higher number of atoms look more attractive and are, on average, also more expensive. Our study shows how data binning could be used as an informative method when analyzing big data in chemistry. PMID:27334348

  20. Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Shijie

    The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in

  1. Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: Teaching Drug Marketers How to Inform Better or Spin Better? Comment on "Trouble Spots in Online Direct-to-Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A Content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters".

    PubMed

    Doran, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Hyosun Kim's report "Trouble Spots in Online Direct to Consumer Prescription Drug Promotion: A content Analysis of FDA Warning Letters" aims to teach marketers how to avoid breaching current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines in their online drug promotion. While Kim hopes to minimise the potential for online promotion to misinform consumers and the study is carefully conducted, teaching drug marketers how to avoid the common mistakes in online drug promotion is more likely to make marketers more adept at spinning information than appropriately balancing it. PMID:27239884

  2. Price controls and international petroleum product prices

    SciTech Connect

    Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.

    1980-02-01

    The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

  3. Statistical techniques for modeling extreme price dynamics in the energy market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mbugua, L. N.; Mwita, P. N.

    2013-02-01

    Extreme events have large impact throughout the span of engineering, science and economics. This is because extreme events often lead to failure and losses due to the nature unobservable of extra ordinary occurrences. In this context this paper focuses on appropriate statistical methods relating to a combination of quantile regression approach and extreme value theory to model the excesses. This plays a vital role in risk management. Locally, nonparametric quantile regression is used, a method that is flexible and best suited when one knows little about the functional forms of the object being estimated. The conditions are derived in order to estimate the extreme value distribution function. The threshold model of extreme values is used to circumvent the lack of adequate observation problem at the tail of the distribution function. The application of a selection of these techniques is demonstrated on the volatile fuel market. The results indicate that the method used can extract maximum possible reliable information from the data. The key attraction of this method is that it offers a set of ready made approaches to the most difficult problem of risk modeling.

  4. Adverse selection and price sensitivity when low-income people have subsidies to purchase health insurance in the private market.

    PubMed

    Swartz, K; Garnick, D W

    2000-01-01

    Policymakers interested in subsidizing low-income people's purchase of private insurance face two major questions: will such subsidies lead to adverse selection, and how large do the subsidies have to be to induce large numbers of eligible people to purchase the insurance? This study examines New Jersey's short-lived experience with a premium subsidy program, Health Access New Jersey (Access Program). The program was for people in families with incomes below 250% of the poverty level who were not eligible for health insurance provided by an employer, or Medicaid or Medicare, and who wished to purchase policies in the state's individual health insurance market, the Individual Health Coverage Program. Surveying a random sample of Access Program policyholders, we compared their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, as well as their health status, to those of other New Jersey residents who had family incomes below 250% of the poverty level to determine whether there was any evidence of adverse selection among the people who enrolled in the Access Program. The people who enrolled were not in worse health than uninsured people with incomes below 250% of the poverty level, but they were quite price sensitive. Most enrollees had incomes within the low end of the income eligibility distribution, reflecting the structure of rapidly declining subsidies as income increased. PMID:10892357

  5. An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

    2016-01-01

    A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

  6. An exploratory analysis of cigarette price premium, market share and consumer loyalty in relation to continued consumption versus cessation in a national US panel

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Michael; Wang, Yanwen; Cahn, Zachary; Berg, Carla J

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Brand equity and consumer loyalty play a role in continued purchasing behaviour; however, this research has largely focused on non-addictive products without counter-marketing tactics. We examined the impact of brand equity (price premium, market share) and consumer loyalty (switching rates) on smoking cessation (discontinued cigarette purchases for 1 year) among smokers in a consumer panel. Methods In Spring 2015, we analysed 1077 cigarette-purchasing households in the Nielsen Homescan Panel. We analysed cessation in relation to brand equity, consumer loyalty, other purchasing behaviours (nicotine intake, frequency), sociodemographics and tobacco control activities (per state-specific data) over a 6-year period (2004–2009) using Cox proportional hazard modelling. Results The sample was 13.28% African-American; the average income was $52 334 (SD=31 445). The average price premium and market share of smokers’ dominant brands were $1.31 (SD=0.49) and 15.41% (SD=19.15), respectively. The mean brand loyalty level was 0.90 (SD=0.17), indicating high loyalty. In our final model, a higher price premium and market share were associated with lower quit rates (p=0.039); however, an interaction effect suggested that greater market share was not associated with lower cessation rates for African-American smokers (p=0.006). Consumer loyalty was not associated with cessation. Other predictors of lower quit rates included a higher nicotine intake (p=0.006) and baseline purchase frequency (p<0.001). Tobacco control factors were not significantly associated. Conclusions Smokers of high-equity cigarette brands are less likely to quit, perhaps due to strong brand–consumer relationships. Thus, continued efforts should aim to regulate tobacco marketing efforts in order to disrupt these relationships to promote cessation. PMID:26534732

  7. Simulating Price-Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  8. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  9. Managing price, gaining profit.

    PubMed

    Marn, M V; Rosiello, R L

    1992-01-01

    The fastest and most effective way for a company to realize maximum profit is to get its pricing right. The right price can boost profit faster than increasing volume will; the wrong price can shrink it just as quickly. Yet many otherwise tough-minded managers miss out on significant profits because they shy away from pricing decisions for fear that they will alienate their customers. Worse, if management isn't controlling its pricing policies, there's a good chance that the company's clients are manipulating them to their own advantage. McKinsey & Company's Michael Marn and Robert Rosiello show managers how to gain control of the pricing puzzle and capture untapped profit potential by using two basic concepts: the pocket price waterfall and the pocket price band. The pocket price waterfall reveals how price erodes between a company's invoice figure and the actual amount paid by the customer--the transaction price. It tracks the volume purchase discounts, early payment bonuses, and frequent customer incentives that squeeze a company's profits. The pocket price band plots the range of pocket prices over which any given unit volume of a single product sells. Wide price bands are commonplace: some manufacturers' transaction prices for a given product range 60%; one fastener supplier's price band ranged up to 500%. Managers who study their pocket price waterfalls and bands can identify unnecessary discounting at the transaction level, low-performance accounts, and misplaced marketing efforts. The problems, once identified, are typically easy and inexpensive to remedy. PMID:10121318

  10. Spotted inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2010-11-01

    We describe new scenarios for generating curvature perturbations when inflaton (curvaton) has significant interactions. We consider a ''spot'', which arises from interactions associated with an enhanced symmetric point (ESP) on the trajectory. Our first example uses the spot to induce a gap in the field equation. We observe that the gap in the field equation may cause generation of curvature perturbation if it does not appear simultaneous in space. The mechanism is similar to the scenario of inhomogeneous phase transition. Then we observe that the spot interactions may initiate warm inflation in the cold Universe. Creation of cosmological perturbation is discussed in relation to the inflaton dynamics and the modulation associated with the spot interactions.

  11. Spot Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houben, Howard

    2012-10-01

    What is the Great Red Spot? What are “spots” in general? The presence of many spots and similar features on Jupiter, the other giant planets, and the sun argues for a simple explanation based on conditions common to these bodies (but generally absent in terrestrial atmospheres). Consider two nearly conserved quantities: potential temperature (θ) and potential vorticity (PV). θ is a measure of entropy, which can only be modified by diabatic processes, and therefore atmospheric motions are predominantly along θ-surfaces. PV is the component of the vorticity perpendicular to the θ-surface. It therefore describes most of the motion along these θ-surfaces. It can be rigorously demonstrated that PV cannot be transported across θ-surfaces. In the deep atmospheres of the giant planets and the sun, the tropopause is a level of minimum θ (with convectively unstable negative θ gradients below in the troposphere and stable gradients above in the stratosphere). These fluid bodies also have strong variations of θ with latitude (belts and zones). Baroclinic instability is a process which leads to longitude variations of θ. So it is possible for θ-surfaces to close on themselves around a minimum, with PV confined to these surfaces. The enclosed volume is a spot. The integrated PV over the spot is 0! (Low PV corresponds to anti-cyclonic motion.) The closed θ-surfaces extend above the tropopause and can have deep roots (since θ gradients in the troposphere are generally smaller in magnitude than those in the stratosphere). Details of the flow within the spot depend on boundary conditions (i.e., the surrounding flow and, for sunspots, magnetic fields) and the horizontal/vertical aspect ratio of the spot. Interactions with other spots depend on the θ values of their respective boundaries. In terrestrial atmospheres, the intersection of many low-θ surfaces with the ground inhibits spot formation.

  12. Quantifying the value that energy efficiency and renewable energy provide as a hedge against volatile natural gas prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Bachrach, Devra; Golove, William

    2002-05-15

    Advocates of energy efficiency and renewable energy have long argued that such technologies can mitigate fuel price risk within a resource portfolio. Such arguments--made with renewed vigor in the wake of unprecedented natural gas price volatility during the winter of 2000/2001--have mostly been qualitative in nature, however, with few attempts to actually quantify the price stability benefit that these sources provide. In evaluating this benefit, it is important to recognize that alternative price hedging instruments are available--in particular, gas-based financial derivatives (futures and swaps) and physical, fixed-price gas contracts. Whether energy efficiency and renewable energy can provide price stability at lower cost than these alternative means is therefore a key question for resource acquisition planners. In this paper we evaluate the cost of hedging gas price risk through financial hedging instruments. To do this, we compare the price of a 10-year natural gas swap (i.e., what it costs to lock in prices over the next 10 years) to a 10-year natural gas price forecast (i.e., what the market is expecting spot natural gas prices to be over the next 10 years). We find that over the past two years natural gas users have had to pay a premium as high as $0.76/mmBtu (0.53/242/kWh at an aggressive 7,000 Btu/kWh heat rate) over expected spot prices to lock in natural gas prices for the next 10 years. This incremental cost to hedge gas price risk exposure is potentially large enough - particularly if incorporated by policymakers and regulators into decision-making practices - to tip the scales away from new investments in variable-price, natural gas-fired generation and in favor of fixed-price investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy.

  13. Not All Large Customers are Made Alike: Disaggregating Response toDefault-Service Day-Ahead Market Pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Hopper, Nicole; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie

    2006-05-12

    For decades, policymakers and program designers have gone onthe assumption that large customers, particularly industrial facilities,are the best candidates for realtime pricing (RTP). This assumption isbased partly on practical considerations (large customers can providepotentially large load reductions) but also on the premise thatbusinesses focused on production cost minimization are most likely toparticipate and respond to opportunities for bill savings. Yet fewstudies have examined the actual price response of large industrial andcommercial customers in a disaggregated fashion, nor have factors such asthe impacts of demand response (DR) enabling technologies, simultaneousemergency DR program participation and price response barriers been fullyelucidated. This second-phase case study of Niagara Mohawk PowerCorporation (NMPC)'s large customer RTP tariff addresses theseinformation needs. The results demonstrate the extreme diversity of largecustomers' response to hourly varying prices. While two-thirdsexhibitsome price response, about 20 percent of customers provide 75-80 percentof the aggregate load reductions. Manufacturing customers are mostprice-responsive as a group, followed by government/education customers,while other sectors are largely unresponsive. However, individualcustomer response varies widely. Currently, enabling technologies do notappear to enhance hourly price response; customers report using them forother purposes. The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO)'semergency DR programs enhance price response, in part by signaling tocustomers that day-ahead prices are high. In sum, large customers docurrently provide moderate price response, but there is significant roomfor improvement through targeted programs that help customers develop andimplement automated load-response strategies.

  14. Modeling natural gas market volatility using GARCH with different distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lv, Xiaodong; Shan, Xian

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we model natural gas market volatility using GARCH-class models with long memory and fat-tail distributions. First, we forecast price volatilities of spot and futures prices. Our evidence shows that none of the models can consistently outperform others across different criteria of loss functions. We can obtain greater forecasting accuracy by taking the stylized fact of fat-tail distributions into account. Second, we forecast volatility of basis defined as the price differential between spot and futures. Our evidence shows that nonlinear GARCH-class models with asymmetric effects have the greatest forecasting accuracy. Finally, we investigate the source of forecasting loss of models. Our findings based on a detrending moving average indicate that GARCH models cannot capture multifractality in natural gas markets. This may be the plausible explanation for the source of model forecasting losses.

  15. Sample selection and spatial models of housing price indexes, and, A disequilibrium analysis of the U.S. gasoline market using panel data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Haixin

    This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part studies the sample selection and spatial models of housing price index using transaction data on detached single-family houses of two California metropolitan areas from 1990 through 2008. House prices are often spatially correlated due to shared amenities, or when the properties are viewed as close substitutes in a housing submarket. There have been many studies that address spatial correlation in the context of housing markets. However, none has used spatial models to construct housing price indexes at zip code level for the entire time period analyzed in this dissertation to the best of my knowledge. In this paper, I study a first-order autoregressive spatial model with four different weighing matrix schemes. Four sets of housing price indexes are constructed accordingly. Gatzlaff and Haurin (1997, 1998) study the sample selection problem in housing index by using Heckman's two-step method. This method, however, is generally inefficient and can cause multicollinearity problem. Also, it requires data on unsold houses in order to carry out the first-step probit regression. Maximum likelihood (ML) method can be used to estimate a truncated incidental model which allows one to correct for sample selection based on transaction data only. However, convergence problem is very prevalent in practice. In this paper I adopt Lewbel's (2007) sample selection correction method which does not require one to model or estimate the selection model, except for some very general assumptions. I then extend this method to correct for spatial correlation. In the second part, I analyze the U.S. gasoline market with a disequilibrium model that allows lagged-latent variables, endogenous prices, and panel data with fixed effects. Most existing studies (see the survey of Espey, 1998, Energy Economics) of the gasoline market assume equilibrium. In practice, however, prices do not always adjust fast enough to clear the market

  16. Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doyle, Peter

    1987-01-01

    Explores the role of marketing in the modern firm and the key tasks of marketing management. Defines the term "marketing" and discusses it as an economic concept. Discusses three key marketing principals. (RKM)

  17. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  18. 77 FR 40387 - Price Adjustment

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-09

    ... Price Adjustment AGENCY: Postal Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: The Commission is noticing a recently filed Postal Service request to adjust prices for several market dominant products... announcing its intent to adjust prices for several market dominant products within First-Class Mail...

  19. Quantifying uncertainties influencing the long-term impacts of oil prices on energy markets and carbon emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCollum, David L.; Jewell, Jessica; Krey, Volker; Bazilian, Morgan; Fay, Marianne; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-07-01

    Oil prices have fluctuated remarkably in recent years. Previous studies have analysed the impacts of future oil prices on the energy system and greenhouse gas emissions, but none have quantitatively assessed how the broader, energy-system-wide impacts of diverging oil price futures depend on a suite of critical uncertainties. Here we use the MESSAGE integrated assessment model to study several factors potentially influencing this interaction, thereby shedding light on which future unknowns hold the most importance. We find that sustained low or high oil prices could have a major impact on the global energy system over the next several decades; and depending on how the fuel substitution dynamics play out, the carbon dioxide consequences could be significant (for example, between 5 and 20% of the budget for staying below the internationally agreed 2 ∘C target). Whether or not oil and gas prices decouple going forward is found to be the biggest uncertainty.

  20. SPOT Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Jason T.; Welsh, Sam J.; Farinetti, Antonio L.; Wegner, Tim; Blakeslee, James; Deboeck, Toni F.; Dyer, Daniel; Corley, Bryan M.; Ollivierre, Jarmaine; Kramer, Leonard; Zimmerman, Patrick L.; Khatri, Reshma

    2010-01-01

    A Spacecraft Position Optimal Tracking (SPOT) program was developed to process Global Positioning System (GPS) data, sent via telemetry from a spacecraft, to generate accurate navigation estimates of the vehicle position and velocity (state vector) using a Kalman filter. This program uses the GPS onboard receiver measurements to sequentially calculate the vehicle state vectors and provide this information to ground flight controllers. It is the first real-time ground-based shuttle navigation application using onboard sensors. The program is compact, portable, self-contained, and can run on a variety of UNIX or Linux computers. The program has a modular objec-toriented design that supports application-specific plugins such as data corruption remediation pre-processing and remote graphics display. The Kalman filter is extensible to additional sensor types or force models. The Kalman filter design is also strong against data dropouts because it uses physical models from state and covariance propagation in the absence of data. The design of this program separates the functionalities of SPOT into six different executable processes. This allows for the individual processes to be connected in an a la carte manner, making the feature set and executable complexity of SPOT adaptable to the needs of the user. Also, these processes need not be executed on the same workstation. This allows for communications between SPOT processes executing on the same Local Area Network (LAN). Thus, SPOT can be executed in a distributed sense with the capability for a team of flight controllers to efficiently share the same trajectory information currently being computed by the program. SPOT is used in the Mission Control Center (MCC) for Space Shuttle Program (SSP) and International Space Station Program (ISSP) operations, and can also be used as a post -flight analysis tool. It is primarily used for situational awareness, and for contingency situations.

  1. Market Designs for High Levels of Variable Generation: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Kiviluoma, J.; Orths, A.; Lynch, M.; Soder, L.

    2014-10-01

    Variable renewable generation is increasing in penetration in modern power systems, leading to higher variability in the supply and price of electricity as well as lower average spot prices. This raises new challenges, particularly in ensuring sufficient capacity and flexibility from conventional technologies. Because the fixed costs and lifetimes of electricity generation investments are significant, designing markets and regulations that ensure the efficient integration of renewable generation is a significant challenge. This papers reviews the state of play of market designs for high levels of variable generation in the United States and Europe and considers new developments in both regions.

  2. Adaptive Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Electricity Markets Participation.

    PubMed

    Pinto, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Sousa, Tiago M; Sousa, Tiago; Vale, Zita; Praca, Isabel; Faia, Ricardo; Pires, Eduardo Jose Solteiro

    2016-08-01

    The increase of distributed energy resources, mainly based on renewable sources, requires new solutions that are able to deal with this type of resources' particular characteristics (namely, the renewable energy sources intermittent nature). The smart grid concept is increasing its consensus as the most suitable solution to facilitate the small players' participation in electric power negotiations while improving energy efficiency. The opportunity for players' participation in multiple energy negotiation environments (smart grid negotiation in addition to the already implemented market types, such as day-ahead spot markets, balancing markets, intraday negotiations, bilateral contracts, forward and futures negotiations, and among other) requires players to take suitable decisions on whether to, and how to participate in each market type. This paper proposes a portfolio optimization methodology, which provides the best investment profile for a market player, considering different market opportunities. The amount of power that each supported player should negotiate in each available market type in order to maximize its profits, considers the prices that are expected to be achieved in each market, in different contexts. The price forecasts are performed using artificial neural networks, providing a specific database with the expected prices in the different market types, at each time. This database is then used as input by an evolutionary particle swarm optimization process, which originates the most advantage participation portfolio for the market player. The proposed approach is tested and validated with simulations performed in multiagent simulator of competitive electricity markets, using real electricity markets data from the Iberian operator-MIBEL. PMID:26353382

  3. Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles

    PubMed Central

    Levine, Sheen S.; Apfelbaum, Evan P.; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L.; Zajac, Edward J.; Stark, David

    2014-01-01

    Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others’ decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity. PMID:25404313

  4. Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles.

    PubMed

    Levine, Sheen S; Apfelbaum, Evan P; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L; Zajac, Edward J; Stark, David

    2014-12-30

    Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others' decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity. PMID:25404313

  5. 17 CFR 229.201 - (Item 201) Market price of and dividends on the registrant's common equity and related...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ...) Identify the principal United States market or markets in which each class of the registrant's common..., for each class of the registrant's common equity. (ii) If the principal United States market for such...) Dividends. (1) State the frequency and amount of any cash dividends declared on each class of its...

  6. 17 CFR 229.201 - (Item 201) Market price of and dividends on the registrant's common equity and related...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ...) Identify the principal United States market or markets in which each class of the registrant's common..., for each class of the registrant's common equity. (ii) If the principal United States market for such...) Dividends. (1) State the frequency and amount of any cash dividends declared on each class of its...

  7. On the gap between an empirical distribution and an exponential distribution of waiting times for price changes in a financial market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sazuka, Naoya

    2007-03-01

    We analyze waiting times for price changes in a foreign currency exchange rate. Recent empirical studies of high-frequency financial data support that trades in financial markets do not follow a Poisson process and the waiting times between trades are not exponentially distributed. Here we show that our data is well approximated by a Weibull distribution rather than an exponential distribution in the non-asymptotic regime. Moreover, we quantitatively evaluate how much an empirical data is far from an exponential distribution using a Weibull fit. Finally, we discuss a transition between a Weibull-law and a power-law in the long time asymptotic regime.

  8. 7 CFR 1126.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1126.54 Section 1126.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1126.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  9. 7 CFR 1006.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1006.54 Section 1006.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1006.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  10. 7 CFR 1033.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1033.54 Section 1033.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1033.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  11. 7 CFR 1032.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1032.54 Section 1032.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1032.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  12. 7 CFR 1131.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1131.54 Section 1131.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1131.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  13. 7 CFR 1007.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1007.54 Section 1007.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1007.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  14. 7 CFR 1124.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1124.54 Section 1124.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  15. 7 CFR 1001.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1001.54 Section 1001.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1001.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  16. 7 CFR 1005.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1005.54 Section 1005.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1005.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  17. 7 CFR 1033.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1033.54 Section 1033.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1033.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  18. 7 CFR 1124.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1124.54 Section 1124.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  19. 7 CFR 1131.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1131.54 Section 1131.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1131.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  20. 7 CFR 1033.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1033.54 Section 1033.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1033.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  1. 7 CFR 1006.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1006.54 Section 1006.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1006.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  2. 7 CFR 1007.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1007.54 Section 1007.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1007.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  3. 7 CFR 1033.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1033.54 Section 1033.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1033.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  4. 7 CFR 1001.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1001.54 Section 1001.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1001.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  5. 7 CFR 1007.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1007.54 Section 1007.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1007.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  6. 7 CFR 1131.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1131.54 Section 1131.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1131.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  7. 7 CFR 1007.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1007.54 Section 1007.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1007.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  8. 7 CFR 1001.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1001.54 Section 1001.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1001.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  9. 7 CFR 1126.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1126.54 Section 1126.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1126.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  10. 7 CFR 1126.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1126.54 Section 1126.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1126.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  11. 7 CFR 1006.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1006.54 Section 1006.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1006.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  12. 7 CFR 1007.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1007.54 Section 1007.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1007.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  13. 7 CFR 1006.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1006.54 Section 1006.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1006.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  14. 7 CFR 1032.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1032.54 Section 1032.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1032.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  15. 7 CFR 1126.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1126.54 Section 1126.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1126.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  16. 7 CFR 1126.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1126.54 Section 1126.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1126.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  17. 7 CFR 1001.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1001.54 Section 1001.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1001.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  18. 7 CFR 1032.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1032.54 Section 1032.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1032.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  19. 7 CFR 1001.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1001.54 Section 1001.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1001.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  20. 7 CFR 1006.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1006.54 Section 1006.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1006.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  1. 7 CFR 1124.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1124.54 Section 1124.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  2. 7 CFR 1124.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1124.54 Section 1124.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  3. 7 CFR 1033.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1033.54 Section 1033.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1033.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  4. 7 CFR 1131.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1131.54 Section 1131.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1131.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  5. 7 CFR 1124.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1124.54 Section 1124.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1124.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  6. 7 CFR 1032.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1032.54 Section 1032.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1032.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  7. 7 CFR 1032.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1032.54 Section 1032.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1032.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Producer Price Differential...

  8. 7 CFR 1131.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1131.54 Section 1131.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1131.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54. Uniform Prices...

  9. 48 CFR 8.707 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Prices. 8.707 Section 8... Blind or Severely Disabled 8.707 Prices. (a) The prices of items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee. All prices for supplies ordered under this subpart are f.o.b....

  10. 48 CFR 8.707 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Prices. 8.707 Section 8... Blind or Severely Disabled 8.707 Prices. (a) The prices of items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee. All prices for supplies ordered under this subpart are f.o.b....

  11. 41 CFR 51-5.5 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Prices. 51-5.5 Section... Prices. (a) The prices for items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee under authority of the Javits-Wagner-O'Day Act (41 U.S.C. 47(b)). (b) Prices for...

  12. 48 CFR 8.707 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Prices. 8.707 Section 8... Blind or Severely Disabled 8.707 Prices. (a) The prices of items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee. All prices for supplies ordered under this subpart are f.o.b....

  13. 41 CFR 51-5.5 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Prices. 51-5.5 Section... Prices. (a) The prices for items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee under authority of the Javits-Wagner-O'Day Act (41 U.S.C. 47(b)). (b) Prices for...

  14. 48 CFR 8.707 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Prices. 8.707 Section 8... Blind or Severely Disabled 8.707 Prices. (a) The prices of items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the Committee. All prices for supplies ordered under this subpart are f.o.b....

  15. What Price Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Janne A.

    1984-01-01

    This essay considers problems with perceptions of the value of academic and public library information and thus with its marketing and pricing. Public perceptions of information, awareness of information services, value and cost of information, pricing details, and cooperation between libraries and providers of services are discussed. Seven…

  16. Perspectives on Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Litten, Larry H.

    1986-01-01

    The most provocative perspectives on pricing for colleges and universities have come from the introduction of marketing into higher education. A brief review of these developments is offered to serve as an orientation for the consideration of pricing issues per se. (Author/MLW)

  17. Mongolian spots.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Divya; Thappa, Devinder Mohan

    2013-01-01

    Mongolian spots (MS) are birthmarks that are present at birth and their most common location is sacrococcygeal or lumbar area. Lesions may be single or multiple and usually involve < 5% total body surface area. They are macular and round, oval or irregular in shape. The color varies from blue to greenish, gray, black or a combination of any of the above. The size varies from few to more than 20 centimetres. Pigmentation is most intense at the age of one year and gradually fades thereafter. It is rarely seen after the age of 6 years. Aberrant MS over occiput, temple, mandibular area, shoulders and limbs may be confused with other dermal melanocytoses and bruises secondary to child abuse, thus necessitating documentation at birth. Although regarded as benign, recent data suggest that MS may be associated with inborn errors of metabolism and neurocristopathies. Mongolian spots usually resolve by early childhood and hence no treatment is generally needed if they are located in the sacral area. However, sometimes it may be required for extrasacral lesions for cosmesis. PMID:23760316

  18. Laboratory Diagnostics Market in East Africa: A Survey of Test Types, Test Availability, and Test Prices in Kampala, Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, Lee F.; Elbireer, Ali; Jackson, J. Brooks; Amukele, Timothy K.

    2015-01-01

    Background Diagnostic laboratory tests are routinely defined in terms of their sensitivity, specificity, and ease of use. But the actual clinical impact of a diagnostic test also depends on its availability and price. This is especially true in resource-limited settings such as sub-Saharan Africa. We present a first-of-its-kind report of diagnostic test types, availability, and prices in Kampala, Uganda. Methods Test types (identity) and availability were based on menus and volumes obtained from clinical laboratories in late 2011 in Kampala using a standard questionnaire. As a measure of test availability, we used the Availability Index (AI). AI is the combined daily testing volumes of laboratories offering a given test, divided by the combined daily testing volumes of all laboratories in Kampala. Test prices were based on a sampling of prices collected in person and via telephone surveys in 2015. Findings Test volumes and menus were obtained for 95% (907/954) of laboratories in Kampala city. These 907 laboratories offered 100 different test types. The ten most commonly offered tests in decreasing order were Malaria, HCG, HIV serology, Syphilis, Typhoid, Urinalysis, Brucellosis, Stool Analysis, Glucose, and ABO/Rh. In terms of AI, the 100 tests clustered into three groups: high (12 tests), moderate (33 tests), and minimal (55 tests) availability. 50% and 36% of overall availability was provided through private and public laboratories, respectively. Point-of-care laboratories contributed 35% to the AI of high availability tests, but only 6% to the AI of the other tests. The mean price of the most commonly offered test types was $2.62 (range $1.83–$3.46). Interpretation One hundred different laboratory test types were in use in Kampala in late 2011. Both public and private laboratories were critical to test availability. The tests offered in point-of-care laboratories tended to be the most available tests. Prices of the most common tests ranged from $1

  19. Marketing Reference Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norman, O. Gene

    1995-01-01

    Relates the marketing concept to library reference services. Highlights include a review of the literature and an overview of marketing, including research, the marketing mix, strategic plan, marketing plan, and marketing audit. Marketing principles are applied to reference services through the marketing mix elements of product, price, place, and…

  20. A Study on Market Efficiency of Selected Commodity Derivatives Traded on NCDEX During 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sajipriya, N.

    2012-10-01

    The study aims at testing the weak form of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of an emerging commodity market - National Commodity Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), which is considered as the prime commodity derivatives market in India. The study considered daily spot and futures prices of five selected commodities traded on NCDEX over 12 month period (the futures contracts originating and expiring during the period January 2011 to December 2011) The five commodities chosen are Pepper, Crude palm Oil, steel silver and Chana as they account for almost two-thirds of the value of agricultural commodity derivatives traded on NCDEX. The results of Run test indicate that both spot and futures prices are weak form efficient

  1. Option pricing: Stock price, stock velocity and the acceleration Lagrangian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Bhanap, Jitendra

    2014-12-01

    The industry standard Black-Scholes option pricing formula is based on the current value of the underlying security and other fixed parameters of the model. The Black-Scholes formula, with a fixed volatility, cannot match the market's option price; instead, it has come to be used as a formula for generating the option price, once the so called implied volatility of the option is provided as additional input. The implied volatility not only is an entire surface, depending on the strike price and maturity of the option, but also depends on calendar time, changing from day to day. The point of view adopted in this paper is that the instantaneous rate of return of the security carries part of the information that is provided by implied volatility, and with a few (time-independent) parameters required for a complete pricing formula. An option pricing formula is developed that is based on knowing the value of both the current price and rate of return of the underlying security which in physics is called velocity. Using an acceleration Lagrangian model based on the formalism of quantum mathematics, we derive the pricing formula for European call options. The implied volatility of the market can be generated by our pricing formula. Our option price is applied to foreign exchange rates and equities and the accuracy is compared with Black-Scholes pricing formula and with the market price.

  2. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  3. Fairness and dynamic pricing: comments

    SciTech Connect

    Hogan, William W.

    2010-07-15

    In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

  4. Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appel, David L.

    This booklet suggests ways in which institutions--Catholic schools in particular--can move beyond public relations and advertising to engage in the broader arena of marketing with its focus on consumer satisfaction. The first of the book's three chapters reviews the concept of marketing, providing definitions of key terms, clarification of…

  5. 7 CFR 1955.113 - Price (housing).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Price (housing). 1955.113 Section 1955.113 Agriculture... § 1955.113 Price (housing). Real property will be offered or listed for its present market value, as adjusted by any administrative price reductions provided for in this section. Market value will be...

  6. 7 CFR 1030.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1030.54 Section 1030.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1030.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54....

  7. 7 CFR 1030.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1030.54 Section 1030.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1030.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54....

  8. 7 CFR 1955.113 - Price (housing).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Price (housing). 1955.113 Section 1955.113... Property § 1955.113 Price (housing). Real property will be offered or listed for its present market value, as adjusted by any administrative price reductions provided for in this section. Market value will...

  9. 7 CFR 1030.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1030.54 Section 1030.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1030.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54....

  10. 7 CFR 1030.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Equivalent price. 1030.54 Section 1030.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS... Handling Class Prices § 1030.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54....

  11. 7 CFR 1030.54 - Equivalent price.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Equivalent price. 1030.54 Section 1030.54 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements... Handling Class Prices § 1030.54 Equivalent price. See § 1000.54....

  12. Design and analysis of electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sioshansi, Ramteen Mehr

    Restructured competitive electricity markets rely on designing market-based mechanisms which can efficiently coordinate the power system and minimize the exercise of market power. This dissertation is a series of essays which develop and analyze models of restructured electricity markets. Chapter 2 studies the incentive properties of a co-optimized market for energy and reserves that pays reserved generators their implied opportunity cost---which is the difference between their stated energy cost and the market-clearing price for energy. By analyzing the market as a competitive direct revelation mechanism we examine the properties of efficient equilibria and demonstrate that generators have incentives to shade their stated costs below actual costs. We further demonstrate that the expected energy payments of our mechanism is less than that in a disjoint market for energy only. Chapter 3 is an empirical validation of a supply function equilibrium (SFE) model. By comparing theoretically optimal supply functions and actual generation offers into the Texas spot balancing market, we show the SFE to fit the actual behavior of the largest generators in market. This not only serves to validate the model, but also demonstrates the extent to which firms exercise market power. Chapters 4 and 5 examine equity, incentive, and efficiency issues in the design of non-convex commitment auctions. We demonstrate that different near-optimal solutions to a central unit commitment problem which have similar-sized optimality gaps will generally yield vastly different energy prices and payoffs to individual generators. Although solving the mixed integer program to optimality will overcome such issues, we show that this relies on achieving optimality of the commitment---which may not be tractable for large-scale problems within the allotted timeframe. We then simulate and compare a competitive benchmark for a market with centralized and self commitment in order to bound the efficiency

  13. 41 CFR 51-5.5 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Prices. 51-5.5 Section 51... FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 5-CONTRACTING REQUIREMENTS § 51-5.5 Prices. (a) The prices for items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the...

  14. 41 CFR 51-5.5 - Prices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Prices. 51-5.5 Section 51... FOR PURCHASE FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED 5-CONTRACTING REQUIREMENTS § 51-5.5 Prices. (a) The prices for items on the Procurement List are fair market prices established by the...

  15. Price smarter on the Net.

    PubMed

    Baker, W; Marn, M; Zawada, C

    2001-02-01

    Companies generally have set prices on the Internet in two ways. Many start-ups have offered untenably low prices in a rush to capture first-mover advantage. Many incumbents have simply charged the same prices on-line as they do off-line. Either way, companies are missing a big opportunity. The fundamental value of the Internet lies not in lowering prices or making them consistent but in optimizing them. After all, if it's easy for customers to compare prices on the Internet, it's also easy for companies to track customers' behavior and adjust prices accordingly. The Net lets companies optimize prices in three ways. First, it lets them set and announce prices with greater precision. Different prices can be tested easily, and customers' responses can be collected instantly. Companies can set the most profitable prices, and they can tap into previously hidden customer demand. Second, because it's so easy to change prices on the Internet, companies can adjust prices in response to even small fluctuations in market conditions, customer demand, or competitors' behavior. Third, companies can use the clickstream data and purchase histories that it collects through the Internet to segment customers quickly. Then it can offer segment-specific prices or promotions immediately. By taking full advantage of the unique possibilities afforded by the Internet to set prices with precision, adapt to changing circumstances quickly, and segment customers accurately, companies can get their pricing right. It's one of the ultimate drivers of e-business success. PMID:11213686

  16. Scaling analysis of time series of daily prices from stock markets of transitional economies in the Western Balkans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarvan, Darko; Stratimirović, Djordje; Blesić, Suzana; Miljković, Vladimir

    2014-12-01

    In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties of time series of stock market indices (SMIs) of developing economies of Western Balkans, and have compared the results we have obtained with the results from more developed economies. We have used three different techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method, detrended moving average (DMA) method, and wavelet transformation (WT) analysis. We have found scaling behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. The scaling of our SMI series changes from long-range correlated to slightly anti-correlated behavior with the change in growth or maturity of the economy the stock market is embedded in. We also report the presence of effects of potential periodic-like influences on the SMI data that we have analyzed. One such influence is visible in all our SMI series, and appears at a period Tp ≈ 90 days. We propose that the existence of various periodic-like influences on SMI data may partially explain the observed difference in types of correlated behavior of corresponding scaling functions.

  17. Construction of Discrete Time Shadow Price

    SciTech Connect

    Rogala, Tomasz Stettner, Lukasz

    2015-12-15

    In the paper expected utility from consumption over finite time horizon for discrete time markets with bid and ask prices and strictly concave utility function is considered. The notion of weak shadow price, i.e. an illiquid price, depending on the portfolio, under which the model without bid and ask price is equivalent to the model with bid and ask price is introduced. Existence and the form of weak shadow price is shown. Using weak shadow price usual (called in the paper strong) shadow price is then constructed.

  18. Sixth special price report: world petroleum-product prices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-01-11

    Twice annually, Energy Detente accesses its own twice-monthly supplement, the Fuel Price/Tax Series, for an overview of how prices and taxes for refined petroleum products from natural gas to asphalt for end-users are changing. In this issue, it also updates its review of individual nations' pricing as to controls or free-market practices. The front cover chart reveals that, in terms of US dollars, the world average price of regular leaded (RL) gasoline is US $1.63, and high-octane leaded is US $1.78 - a difference of about 9%. A table details RL retail prices, the taxes pertaining to them, the percentages that those taxes are of prices, plus the January 1983 prices and the price change in US dollars over the period. In terms of US dollars, most price changes since January 1983 appear negative - particularly in the cases of Bolivia, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. A view of actual market price changes in terms of national currencies is depicted in another table. The fuel price/tax series and the principal industrial fuel prices are presented for January 1984 for countries of the Eastern Hemisphere.

  19. Developing a consumer pricing strategy.

    PubMed

    Sturm, Arthur; Tiedemann, Frank

    2013-05-01

    Healthcare providers can learn a variety of pricing lessons from the retail market: For providers, wholesale pricing--"the price to play"--alone is not enough. Once a hospital or health system chooses a market position, the provider creates an expectation that must be met-consistently. Consumer loyalty is fluid, and the price of care or service is not always the motivator for choosing one organization over another; intangibles such as location and level of customer service also drive purchasing decisions. PMID:23678698

  20. An option pricing theory explanation of the invasion of Kuwait

    SciTech Connect

    Muhtaseb, M.R.

    1995-12-31

    The objective of this paper is to explain the invasion of Kuwait by making an analogy between a call option and the Iraq-Kuwait situation before the invasion on August 2, 1990. A number of factors contributed to the issuance of a deep-in-the money European call option to Iraq against Kuwait. The underlying asset is the crude oil reserves under Kuwait. Price of crude oil is determined in world spot markets. The exercise price is equal to the cost of permanently annexing and retaining Kuwait. The volatility is measured by the annualized variance of the weekly rate of return of the spot price of crude oil. Time-to-expiration is equal to the time period between decision date and actual invasion date. Finally, since crude oil prices are quoted in U.S. dollars, the U.S. Treasury bill rate is assumed to be the risk-free rate. In a base-case scenario, Kuwait`s oil reserves amount to 94,500 million barrels valued at $18 a barrell in early February 1990 resulting in a market value of $1,701 billion. Because the cost of the war to Iraq is not known, we assume it is comparable to that of the U.S.-led coalition of $51.0 billion. Time-to-expiration is six months. The treasury bill rate in early 1990 was around 7.5 percent. Annualized standard deviation of weekly rates of return is 0.216. The value of Kuwait`s invasion option is $1,642.25 billion. Depending on the scenario, the value of this special option ranged between $1,450 billion and $3.624 billion. 10 refs., 1 tab.

  1. Price Discrimination, Economies of Scale, and Profits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Donghyun

    2000-01-01

    Demonstrates that it is possible for economies of scale to induce a price-discriminating monopolist to sell in an unprofitable market where the average cost always exceeds the price. States that higher profits in the profitable market caused by economies of scale may exceed losses incurred in the unprofitable market. (CMK)

  2. ConverDyn and the new conversion market

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1993-04-01

    In November 1992, AlliedSignal (Allied) and General Atomics (GA) formed a conversion marketing partnership, known as ConverDyn. The venture was formed to market UF[sub 6] conversion services following the closure of the Gore, Oklahoma, conversion facility operated by GA's wholly owned subsidiary, Sequoyah Fuels Corporation (SFC). The closure of the Gore facility occurred after an extended period of regulatory snarls that resulted in production outages and substantial expense. The loss of SFC's capacity (9,100 MTU nameplate) brings conversion supply and demand more into balance after many years of significant oversupply. In the past two months, spot prices have increased more than 30 percent, yet prices in the USA still lag those observed in Europe. However, the conversion market is still fraught with uncertainty in the face of weapons dismantlement, the availability of low-enriched uranium (LEU) products, and the potential for increased capacity from other countries.

  3. Energy price risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weron, Rafal

    2000-09-01

    The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is largely weather dependent, and the reliability of the grid is paramount. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, a number of standard financial tools cannot be readily applied to pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. In this paper we present arguments why this is the case.

  4. Coal markets squeeze producers

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, M.

    2005-12-01

    Supply/demand fundamentals seem poised to keep prices of competing fossil fuels high, which could cushion coal prices, but increased mining and transportation costs may squeeze producer profits. Are markets ready for more volatility?

  5. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets based on DCCA and DMCA methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Han, Yan; Chen, Yuemeng; Yang, Chunxia

    2014-05-01

    Based on the daily price data of Shanghai and London gold spot markets, we applied detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) and detrended moving average cross-correlation analysis (DMCA) methods to quantify power-law cross-correlation between domestic and international gold markets. Results show that the cross-correlations between the Chinese domestic and international gold spot markets are multifractal. Furthermore, forward DMCA and backward DMCA seems to outperform DCCA and centered DMCA for short-range gold series, which confirms the comparison results of short-range artificial data in L. Y. He and S. P. Chen [Physica A 390 (2011) 3806-3814]. Finally, we analyzed the local multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between Chinese domestic and international gold markets. We show that multifractal characteristics of the cross-correlation between the Chinese domestic and international gold markets are time-varying and that multifractal characteristics were strengthened by the financial crisis in 2007-2008.

  6. Competition, retail pricing and service design

    SciTech Connect

    Caves, D.W.

    1994-12-31

    A slide presentation covered major approaches to a competitive industry and competitive prices. Major pricing approaches addressed service differentiation, non-linear structures and market based levels. Highly differentiated competitive prices were illustrated by an Airline Industry pricing schedule for one flight on a given day. The major utilities involved in Real Time Pricing (RTP) programs with the number of customers are identified, along with the status of the RTP for each utility.

  7. Natural uranium and secondary market conversion: All data as of March 31, 1988

    SciTech Connect

    1988-04-01

    The Exchange Value declined $0.25, to $15.90 per pound U3O8 this month. The U3O8 market showed some renewed activity in March, and the combination of aggressive sellers offers and limited, largely discretionary demand caused downward pressure on prices. Six spot or near-term transactions are reported this month, totaling over 600,000 pounds U3O8 equivalent; all of these sales involved US-origin concentrations. In addition, six long-term transactions are reported, totaling over 12 million pounds U3O8 equivalent, all involving concentrates. Spot market demand for concentrations consisted primarily of US utilities considering discretionary purchase, and during the month at least four US utilities purchased US-origin material. Near the end of the month, several US producers had lowered prices to near the $16.00 level as they competed to sell a significant quantity of material to one US utility.

  8. Marketing fundamentals.

    PubMed

    Redmond, W H

    2001-01-01

    This chapter outlines current marketing practice from a managerial perspective. The role of marketing within an organization is discussed in relation to efficiency and adaptation to changing environments. Fundamental terms and concepts are presented in an applied context. The implementation of marketing plans is organized around the four P's of marketing: product (or service), promotion (including advertising), place of delivery, and pricing. These are the tools with which marketers seek to better serve their clients and form the basis for competing with other organizations. Basic concepts of strategic relationship management are outlined. Lastly, alternate viewpoints on the role of advertising in healthcare markets are examined. PMID:11401791

  9. 1996 year-end market review

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    A summary of financial data for uranium markets in 1996 is provided. Spot market activity and buyers and sellers of spot uranium are outlined for the restricted and unrestricted market. Data on the concentrates, uranium hexafluoride, enriched uranium product, and term uranium markets are also presented. Market data is also provided for conversion and enrichment services.

  10. The Basic Economics of CD-ROM Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erkkila, John E.

    1991-01-01

    This explanation of how the basic economic model of pricing applies to the CD-ROM industry considers the supply and demand sides of the market and compares three distinct pricing strategies: (1) pricing to maximize profits; (2) average cost pricing; and (3) marginal cost pricing. (EAM)

  11. Price transparency: building community trust.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Richard L

    2007-01-01

    With the push from policymakers, payers, and consumers for hospitals to make their prices public, healthcare executives need to recognize two central issues related to price transparency: 1) meaningful price transparency involves helping patients and consumers understand their financial obligation for an episode of care, and 2) price transparency is key to the most critical success strategy for healthcare providers: building trust. This article reviews the history of pricing and billing practices and explores why price transparency is not easily achieved in today's environment. Pricing is a mystery even to those of us who work in the field, yet despite its complexity, the call for price transparency is not going to go away. For transparency, the goal should be to establish a rational pricing system that is easily explainable and justified to all stakeholders. Healthcare executives must make pricing a priority, understand cost, develop a pricing philosophy, understand the overall revenue requirements, examine market conditions and prices, and set up systems for review. A rational process of price setting should enhance community trust. In this matter there is nothing less at stake than the hearts of our community members. PMID:17405387

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy-related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

  13. Rocky Mountain spotted fever

    MedlinePlus

    Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a disease caused by a type of bacteria carried by ticks. ... Rocky Mountain spotted fever is caused by the bacteria Rickettsia rickettsii (R. Rickettsii) , which is carried by ticks. The ...

  14. Rocky Mountain spotted fever

    MedlinePlus

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000654.htm Rocky Mountain spotted fever To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a disease caused by a ...

  15. The strategic use of forward contracts: Applications in power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Jeffrey Scott

    This dissertation develops three theoretical models that analyze forward trading by firms with market power. The models are discussed in the context of recently restructured power markets, but the results can be applied more generally. The first model considers the profitability of large firms in markets with limited economies of scale and free entry. When large firms apply their market power, small firms benefit from the high prices without incurring the costs of restricted output. When entry is considered, and profit opportunity is determined by the cost of entry, this asymmetry creates the "curse of market power;" the long-run profits of large firms are reduced because of their market power. I suggest ways that large power producers can cope with the curse of market power, including the sale of long-term forward contracts. Past research has shown that forward contracts can demonstrate commitment to aggressive behavior to a competing duopolist. I add explicitly modeled entry to this literature, and make the potential entrants the audience of the forward sale. The existence of a forward market decreases equilibrium entry, increases the profits of large firms, and enhances economic efficiency. In the second model, a consumer representative, such as a state government or regulated distribution utility, bargains in the forward market on behalf of end-consumers who cannot organize together in the spot market. The ability to organize in forward markets allows consumers to encourage economic efficiency. When multiple producers are considered, I find that the ability to offer contracts also increases consumer surplus by decreasing the producers' profits. In some specifications of the model, consumers are able to capture the full gains from trade. The third model of this dissertation considers the ability of a large producer to take advantage of anonymity by randomly alternating between forward sales and forward purchases. The large producer uses its market power to

  16. Agricultural Marketing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helt, Lawrence; And Others

    Designed for use in farm business management adult programs, this marketing curriculum includes six teaching lessons and professional staff products. The following topics are covered in the lessons: introduction to marketing; interpretation of price/demand/supply cycles and fundamental outlook trends (carryover/projections/disappearance); farmers'…

  17. Appliance Efficiency Standards and Price Discrimination

    SciTech Connect

    Spurlock, Cecily Anna

    2013-05-08

    I explore the effects of two simultaneous changes in minimum energy efficiency and ENERGY STAR standards for clothes washers. Adapting the Mussa and Rosen (1978) and Ronnen (1991) second-degree price discrimination model, I demonstrate that clothes washer prices and menus adjusted to the new standards in patterns consistent with a market in which firms had been price discriminating. In particular, I show evidence of discontinuous price drops at the time the standards were imposed, driven largely by mid-low efficiency segments of the market. The price discrimination model predicts this result. On the other hand, in a perfectly competition market, prices should increase for these market segments. Additionally, new models proliferated in the highest efficiency market segment following the standard changes. Finally, I show that firms appeared to use different adaptation strategies at the two instances of the standards changing.

  18. Reshaping power markets: Lessons from South America

    SciTech Connect

    Lalor, R.P.; Garcia, H.

    1996-03-01

    Does restructuring enhance efficiency and give consumers a portion of these gains? Evidence from Chile and Argentina - whose restructuring is well ahead of that in the U.S. - demonstrates that more efficient power markets can be created, and that the need remains for appropriate treatment of the competitive and monopolistic portions of the market. Centrally planned electric systems have a long history in industrial states around the world: Marxist and capitalist, totalitarian and democratic. A growing enthusiasm world-wide for economic democracy has recently brought the concept of central planning under greater scrutiny, and alternative solutions have been sought. This paper describes experiences with the deregulation of the utility industry in Chile and Argentina and assesses the relevance of those experiences to the ongoing evolution of market-based systems in the United States. The lessons of the Southern Cone are very relevant to the ongoing dialogue on deregulation in the U.S. Experience there suggests a number of conditions that are important for the creation of competitive and efficient energy markets: (1) Mandatory separation of regulated functions, and clear delineation of the limits of involvement by regulated entities in competitive markets; (2) Unbundling of transmission charges and provision of {open_quotes}comparable{close_quotes} fair transmission access; (3) Clearly defined, published nodal or zonal transmission prices reflecting incremental operating and upgrade costs; (4) Establishment of a centrally dispatched commodity market, spot markets for both capacity and energy priced at system marginal cost, and a parallel bilateral market based on long term contracts; and (5) Access by generators and marketers to at least a portion of the retail market.

  19. Pricing Films, Filmstrips and Records.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Epstein, Connie C.

    1984-01-01

    Examines pricing practices of major producers of educational materials: Weston Woods, Listening Library, Random House Educational Media, Live Oak Media, S&S Communications Group, Phoenix/BFA, Benchmark, and Churchill Films. Royalties, production and manufacturing costs, list prices, recoveries to producers, and marketing are noted. (EJS)

  20. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. Methods We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. Results We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. Conclusion The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased