Science.gov

Sample records for stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario

  1. Big-bang nucleosynthesis and the relic abundance of dark matter in a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Jittoh, Toshifumi; Koike, Masafumi; Sato, Joe; Yamanaka, Masato; Kohri, Kazunori; Shimomura, Takashi

    2008-09-01

    A scenario of the big-bang nucleosynthesis is analyzed within the minimal supersymmetric standard model, which is consistent with a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario to explain the relic abundance of dark matter. We find that we can account for the possible discrepancy of the abundance of {sup 7}Li between the observation and the prediction of the big-bang nucleosynthesis by taking the mass of the neutralino as 300 GeV and the mass difference between the stau and the neutralino as (100-120) MeV. We can therefore simultaneously explain the abundance of the dark matter and that of {sup 7}Li by these values of parameters. The lifetime of staus in this scenario is predicted to be O(100-1000) sec.

  2. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m χ ≲ 8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly- mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  3. Neutralino pair production at the photon-photon collider for the τ˜-coannihilation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonmez, Nasuf

    2016-03-01

    Supersymmetry (SUSY) is a theory which gives an explanation for the strong and electroweak interactions from the grand unification scale down to the weak scale. The search for supersymmetric particles still continues at full speed at the LHC without success. The main task at the ILC is complementing the LHC result and also search for new physics. In this study, the neutralino pair production via photon-photon collision is studied for the t˜-coannihilation scenario in the context of MSSM at the ILC. In the calculation, all the possible one loop diagrams are taken into account for the photon-photon interaction. We present the production cross section and distribution of various observables for the lightest and next-to-lightest neutralino pairs for benchmark models which are specifically presented in the light of LHC8 data analysis, employing these benchmark models for neutralino pair production could show the potential of the ILC concerning the dark matter searches in supersymmetry.

  4. The coannihilation codex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Michael J.; Brod, Joachim; El Hedri, Sonia; Kaminska, Anna; Kopp, Joachim; Liu, Jia; Thamm, Andrea; de Vries, Maikel; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Yu, Felix; Zurita, José

    2015-12-01

    We present a general classification of simplified models that lead to dark matter (DM) coannihilation processes of the form DM + X → SM1 + SM2, where X is a coannihilation partner for the DM particle and SM1, SM2 are Standard Model fields. Our classification also encompasses regular DM pair annihilation scenarios if DM and X are identical. Each coannhilation scenario motivates the introduction of a mediating particle M that can either belong to the Standard Model or be a new field, whereby the resulting interactions between the dark sector and the Standard Model are realized as tree-level and dimension-four couplings. We construct a basis of coannihilation models, classified by the SU(3) C × SU(2) L × U(1) Y quantum numbers of DM, X and M. Our main assumptions are that dark matter is an electrically neutral color singlet and that all new particles are either scalars, Dirac or Majorana fermions, or vectors. We illustrate how new scenarios arising from electroweak symmetry breaking effects can be connected to our electroweak symmetric simplified models. We offer a comprehensive discussion of the phenomenological features of our models, encompassing the physics of thermal freeze-out, direct and indirect detection constraints, and in particular searches at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Many novel signatures that are not covered in current LHC searches are emphasized, and new and improved LHC analyses tackling these signatures are proposed. We discuss how the coannihilation simplified models can be used to connect results from all classes of experiments in a straightforward and transparent way. This point is illustrated with a detailed discussion of the phenomenology of a particular simplified model featuring leptoquark-mediated dark matter coannihilation.

  5. Discovering bottom squark coannihilation at the ILC

    SciTech Connect

    Belyaev, Alexander; Lastovicka, Tomas; Nomerotski, Andrei; Lastovicka-Medin, Gordana

    2010-02-01

    We study the potential of the international linear collider (ILC) at {radical}(s)=500 GeV to probe new dark matter motivated scenario where the bottom squark (sbottom) is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle. For this scenario, which is virtually impossible for the LHC to test, the ILC has a potential to cover a large fraction of the parameter space. The challenge is due to a very low energy of jets, below 20-30 GeV, which pushes the jet clustering and flavor tagging algorithms to their limits. The process of sbottom pair production was studied within the SiD detector concept. We demonstrate that ILC offers a unique opportunity to test the supersymmetry parameter space motivated by the sbottom-neutralino coannihilation scenario in cases when the sbottom production is kinematically accessible. The study was done with the full SiD simulation and reconstruction chain including all standard model and beam backgrounds.

  6. Neutrino Coannihilation on Dark-Matter Relics?

    SciTech Connect

    Barenboim, Gabriela; Mena Requejo, Olga; Quigg, Chris; /Fermilab

    2006-04-01

    High-energy neutrinos may resonate with relic background neutralinos to form short-lived sneutrinos. In some circumstances, the decay chain that leads back to the lightest supersymmetric particle would yield few-GeV gamma rays or charged-particle signals. Although resonant coannihilation would occur at an appreciable rate in our galaxy, the signal in any foreseeable detector is unobservably small.

  7. Probing Bino-Wino coannihilation at the LHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagata, Natsumi; Otono, Hidetoshi; Shirai, Satoshi

    2015-10-01

    We study bino-wino coannihilation scenario in the so-called spread or mini-split supersymmetry. We show that, in this model, a neutral wino has a macroscopic decay length in a wide range of parameter space. This characteristic feature could be observed as a displaced vertex plus missing transverse energy event at the LHC. In this paper, we study the current constraints and future prospects on the scenario based on the displaced vertex search performed by the ATLAS collaboration. It is found that a sizable parameter region can be probed at the 8 TeV LHC run. This search strategy will considerably extend its reach at the next stage of the LHC running, and thus play a crucial role to examine a possibility of bino dark matter in the mini-split type supersymmetric models.

  8. The abundance of Kaluza-Klein dark matter with coannihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Burnell, Fiona; Kribs, Graham D.

    2006-01-01

    In universal extra dimension models, the lightest Kaluza-Klein (KK) particle is generically the first KK excitation of the photon and can be stable, serving as particle dark matter. We calculate the thermal relic abundance of the KK photon for a general mass spectrum of KK excitations including full coannihilation effects with all (level-one) KK excitations. We find that including coannihilation can significantly change the relic abundance when the coannihilating particles are within about 20% of the mass of the KK photon. Matching the relic abundance with cosmological data, we find the mass range of the KK photon is much wider than previously found, up to about 2 TeV if the masses of the strongly interacting level-one KK particles are within 5% of the mass of the KK photon. We also find cases where several coannihilation channels compete (constructively and destructively) with one another. The lower bound on the KK photon mass, about 540 GeV when just right-handed KK leptons coannihilate with the KK photon, relaxes upward by several hundred GeV when coannihilation with electroweak KK gauge bosons of the same mass is included.

  9. Anatomy of coannihilation with a scalar top partner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibarra, A.; Pierce, A.; Shah, N. R.; Vogl, S.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate a simplified model of dark matter where a Majorana fermion χ coannihilates with a colored scalar top partner t ˜. We explore the cosmological history, with particular emphasis on the most relevant low-energy parameters: the mass splitting between the dark matter and the coannihilator, and the Yukawa coupling yχ that connects these fields to the Standard Model top quarks. We also allow a free quartic coupling λh between a pair of Higgs bosons and t ˜ pairs. We pay special attention to the case where the values take on those expected where t ˜ corresponds to the superpartner of the right-handed top, and χ is a bino. Direct detection, indirect detection, and colliders are complementary probes of this simple model.

  10. Gluino coannihilation and observability of gluinos at LHC run II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nath, Pran; Spisak, Andrew B.

    2016-05-01

    The observability of a gluino at LHC run II is analyzed for the case where the gluino lies in the gluino-neutralino coannihilation region and the mass gap between the gluino and the neutralino is small. The analysis is carried out under the Higgs boson mass constraint and the constraint of dark matter relic density consistent with WMAP and Planck experiments. It is shown that in this case a gluino with mass much smaller than the current lower limit of ˜1500 GeV as given by LHC run II at 3.2 fb-1 of integrated luminosity would have escaped detection. The analysis is done using the signal regions used by the ATLAS Collaboration where an optimization of signal regions was carried out to determine the best regions for gluino discovery in the gluino-neutralino coannihilation region. It is shown that under the Higgs boson mass constraint and the relic density constraint, a gluino mass of ˜700 GeV would require 14 fb-1 of integrated luminosity for discovery and a gluino of mass ˜1250 GeV would require 3400 fb-1 of integrated luminosity for discovery at LHC run II. An analysis of dark matter for this case is also given. It is found that for the range of gluino masses considered, the neutralino mass lies within less than 100 GeV of the gluino mass. Thus a measurement of the gluino mass in the gluino-neutralino coannihilation region will provide a determination of the neutralino mass. In this region the neutralino is dominantly a gaugino and the spin-independent proton-neutralino cross section is small but much larger than the neutrino floor lying in the range ˜(1 - 10 )×10-47 cm2 . Thus a significant part of the parameter space of the model will lie within the reach of the next generation LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter experiment.

  11. Scalar dark matter and fermion coannihilations in the radiative seesaw model

    SciTech Connect

    Klasen, Michael; Yaguna, Carlos E.; Ruiz-Álvarez, José D.; Restrepo, Diego; Zapata, Oscar E-mail: carlos.yaguna@uni-muenster.de E-mail: restrepo@udea.edu.co

    2013-04-01

    By extending the Standard Model with three right-handed neutrinos (N{sub i}) and a second Higgs doublet (H{sub 2}), odd under a Z{sub 2} symmetry, it is possible to explain non-zero neutrino masses and to account for the dark matter. We consider the case where the dark matter is a scalar and study its coannihilations with the right-handed neutrinos. These coannihilations tend to increase, rather than reduce, the dark matter density and they modify in a significant way the viable parameter space of the model. In particular, they allow to satisfy the relic density constraint for dark matter masses well below 500 GeV. The dependence of the relic density on the relevant parameters of the model, such as the dark matter mass, the mass splitting, and the number of coannihilating fermions, is analyzed in detail. We also investigate, via a scan over the parameter space, the new viable regions that are obtained when coannihilations are taken into account. Notably, they feature large indirect detection rates, with (σv) reaching values of order 10{sup −24}cm{sup 3}s{sup −1}. Finally, we emphasize that coannihilation effects analogous to those discussed here can be used to reconcile a thermal freeze-out with a large (σv) also in other models of dark matter.

  12. Analyzing the scalar top co-annihilation region at the ILC

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Finch, A.; Freitas, A.; Milstene, C.; Nowak, H.; Sopczak, A.; /Lancaster U.

    2005-08-01

    The Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model opens the possibility of electroweak baryogenesis provided that the light scalar top quark (stop) is lighter than the top quark. In addition, the lightest neutralino is an ideal candidate to explain the existence of dark matter. For a light stop with mass close to the lightest neutralino, the stop-neutralino co-annihilation mechanism becomes efficient, thus rendering the predicted dark matter density compatible with observations. Such a stop may however remain elusive at hadron colliders. Here it is shown that a future linear collider provides a unique opportunity to detect and study the light stop. The production of stops with small stop-neutralino mass differences is studied in a detailed experimental analysis with a realistic detector simulation including a CCD vertex detector for flavor tagging. Furthermore, the linear collider, by precision measurements of superpartner masses and mixing angles, also allows to determine the dark matter relic density with an accuracy comparable to recent astrophysical observations.

  13. Galactic-centre gamma rays in CMSSM dark matter scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; Olive, Keith A.; Spanos, Vassilis C. E-mail: olive@physics.umn.edu

    2011-10-01

    We study the production of γ rays via LSP annihilations in the core of the Galaxy as a possible experimental signature of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM), in which supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to be universal at the GUT scale, assuming also that the LSP is the lightest neutralino χ. The part of the CMSSM parameter space that is compatible with the measured astrophysical density of cold dark matter is known to include a (τ-tilde {sub 1})−χ coannihilation strip, a focus-point strip where χ has an enhanced Higgsino component, and a funnel at large tan β where the annihilation rate is enhanced by the poles of nearby heavy MSSM Higgs bosons, A/H. We calculate the total annihilation rates, the fractions of annihilations into different Standard Model final states and the resulting fluxes of γ rays for CMSSM scenarios along these strips. We observe that typical annihilation rates are much smaller in the coannihilation strip for tan β = 10 than along the focus-point strip or for tan β = 55, and that the annihilation branching ratios differ greatly between the different dark matter strips. Whereas the current Fermi-LAT data are not sensitive to any of the CMSSM scenarios studied, and the calculated γ-ray fluxes are probably unobservably low along the coannihilation strip for tan β = 10, we find that substantial portions of the focus-point strips and rapid-annihilation funnel regions could be pressured by several more years of Fermi-LAT data, if understanding of the astrophysical background and/or systematic uncertainties can be improved in parallel.

  14. Testing the CP-violating MSSM in stau decays at the LHC and ILC

    SciTech Connect

    Dreiner, Herbi; Kulkarni, Suchita; Marold, Anja; Kittel, Olaf

    2011-05-01

    We study CP violation in the two-body decay of a scalar tau into a neutralino and a tau, which should be probed at the LHC and ILC. From the normal tau polarization, a CP asymmetry is defined which is sensitive to the CP phases of the trilinear scalar coupling parameter A{sub {tau}}, the gaugino mass parameter M{sub 1}, and the Higgsino mass parameter {mu}, in the stau-neutralino sector of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. Asymmetries of more than 70% are obtained in scenarios with strong stau mixing. As a result, detectable CP asymmetries in stau decays at the LHC are found, motivating further detailed experimental studies for probing the supersymmetry CP phases.

  15. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  16. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  17. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  18. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  19. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person. PMID:19502145

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  1. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  2. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  3. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  5. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  6. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  7. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  8. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  9. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  10. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  11. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  12. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  13. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  14. Security message exchange interoperability scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tarman, Thomas

    1998-07-01

    This contribution describes three interoperability scenarios for the ATM Security Message Exchange (SME) protocol. These scenarios include network-wide signaling support for the Security Services Information Element, partial signaling support wherethe SSIE is only supported in private or workgroup ATM networks, and the case where the SSIE is nonsupported by any network elements (exceptthosethat implement security services). Explanatory text is proposed for inclusion infection 2.3 of the ATM Security Specification, Version 1.0.

  15. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  16. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  17. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  18. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  19. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  20. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  1. Designing Scenarios for Human Action.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carroll, John M.

    1994-01-01

    An approach to the design of computer systems and applications in which scenarios of human-system interaction are a central working design representation are described and illustrated by examples from the design of a multimedia information system. (Contains 21 references.) (KRN)

  2. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  3. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  4. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  5. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a persistent environmental change observed globally for more than a century, and its expected continuation poses significant challenges to the United States (US). We summarize a process associated with the United States National Climate Assessment for identifying four scenarios of global mean sea level rise (SLR). The main finding is that global mean sea level is expected to rise no less than 0.2 meters and no more than 2.0 meters by the end of the century. Recent publications suggest that a 4 C world would result in global mean SLR towards the upper end of that range. Aside from this process, there is currently no coordinated, interagency effort in the US to identify agreed upon global mean sea level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management. This is an important gap because identifying global mean SLR estimates is a critical step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. At present, coastal managers are left to identify global SLR estimates through their own interpretation of the scientific literature or the advice of experts on an ad-hoc basis. Yet, relative SLR at over one hundred tide gages (~80%) along the US coast reflect the global trend (1.7 - 3.2 mm/yr). No widely accepted method is currently available for producing probabilistic projections of SLR at actionable scales (i.e., regional to local). The desire to have a most probable or likely outcome can lead to paralysis or inaction for coastal decision-making. Given the range of uncertainty in future global SLR, scenario planning offers an opportunity to overcome decision-making paralysis and initiate actions now that may reduce future impacts and vulnerabilities. Scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe future potential conditions in a manner that supports decision-making under uncertainty. Using multiple scenarios, none more likely than the other, encourages experts and decision makers to rehearse multiple, plausible futures

  6. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  7. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  8. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  9. Program Simulates Spacecraft Communication Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Land, Kenneth P.; Best, Robert E.; Steel, Douglas J.; Gadd, William C.

    1994-01-01

    Dynamic Environment Communications Alalysis Testbed (DECAT) computer program is modular simulation program. Computes effects of motion, antenna radiation patterns, noise, interference, and other phenomena. Flexibility enables users to analyze many communications scenarios quickly and easily, eliminating need for users to create specific computer programs. Users create simulations involving any number of vehicles, receivers, transmitters, and antennas via graphical user interface (GUI). DECAT GUI implemented by use of software tool called "Transportable Applications Environment Plus" (TAE Plus). Written in C language. Graphical user interface requires TAE Plus, Version 5.1 package available from COSMIC (GSC-13463).

  10. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  11. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  12. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  13. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  14. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  15. Scenario Writing: A Vision of the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shewach, Dawn L.

    1991-01-01

    The Scenario Writing component of the Future Problem Solving Program calls for students to write a short-short story exploring variables in the future. This article describes the scenario writing process, presents samples of award-winning scenarios, and offers tips for student-authors and for coaches. (JDD)

  16. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  17. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

  18. SAPPHIRE: scenarios, architecture, and process.

    PubMed

    Kay, S; Redman, R; McWilliams, A; Bradley, P; Daniels, A

    1994-06-01

    General Medical Practice (GMP) information systems within the UK are becoming more sophisticated and more complex and are widely available from numerous suppliers. Although such systems are viewed as being important, they are problematic in terms of interpreting and assessing their usefulness, and their impact upon work and the organisation (G. Walsham, Interpreting Information Systems in Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1993)). In particular, it is difficult for any who have an interest in these systems to apply existing technical specifications to a specific situation, and to match individual requirements with the supplier's products. The research project SAPPHIRE seeks to inform the decision making of stakeholders, e.g. GPs, facilitators and suppliers, with respect to procurement, update, design and supply of GMP systems by developing the means of evaluating such systems, and by facilitating an accreditation process through that evaluation. This extended paper introduces the multi-faceted approach, scenarios, architecture and process of SAPPHIRE. PMID:7956163

  19. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  20. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  1. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  2. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  3. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  4. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  5. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  6. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  7. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  8. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  9. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  10. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  11. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  12. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions. PMID:27037383

  13. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  14. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  15. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. PMID:26189995

  16. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  17. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  18. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  19. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  20. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  1. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  2. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  3. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  4. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  5. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  6. Scenario-Based E-Learning Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Kathleen; Colkey, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    As it was initially implemented, e-learning did little other than supply facts and information, offering limited opportunity for interactivity and problem-solving. Designers need to find ways to address past limitations and bring the engagement of classroom training to the web. One method that merits attention is scenario-based learning. The…

  7. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  8. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  9. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  10. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  11. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  12. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  13. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  14. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  15. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  16. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  17. School Improvement Strategies That Work: Some Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huberman, A. Michael

    1983-01-01

    School improvement strategies are presented in four scenarios: (1) high outcomes from enforced, stabilized use; (2) moderate to high outcomes from high mastery and low settledness; (3) moderate to low outcomes from program blunting or downsizing; and (4) failing, low levels of outcome from indifference and discouragement. (MD)

  18. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  19. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  20. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  1. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  2. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  3. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. PMID:22275619

  4. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  5. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  6. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  7. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  8. Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sheykhi, Ahmad

    2009-05-15

    We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

  9. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  10. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  11. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  12. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  13. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa.

    PubMed

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several "day to day" clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  14. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  15. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  16. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  17. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  18. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  19. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  20. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  1. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  2. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  3. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  4. Blood loss estimation in epistaxis scenarios.

    PubMed

    Beer, H L; Duvvi, S; Webb, C J; Tandon, S

    2005-01-01

    Thirty-two members of staff from the Ear, Nose and Throat Department at Warrington General Hospital were asked to estimate blood loss in commonly encountered epistaxis scenarios. Results showed that once the measured volume was above 100 ml, visual estimation became grossly inaccurate. Comparison of medical and non-medical staff showed under-estimation was more marked in the non-medical group. Comparison of doctors versus nurses showed no difference in estimation, and no difference was found between grades of staff. PMID:15807956

  5. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  6. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, R.; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-11-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein’s theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  7. Braneworld Scenarios from Deformed Defect Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinaglia, M.; Bernardini, A. E.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2016-06-01

    Novel braneworld scenarios supported by warp factors driven by a single extra dimension are obtained from deformed one-dimensional lump-like solutions known a priori. Through a novel ansatz, the internal energy structure, the braneworld warp factor, and the quantum mechanical analogue problem, as well as the associated zero mode solutions, are straightforwardly derived by means of an analytical procedure. The results allow one to identify thick brane solutions that support internal structures and that can hold the (3+1)-dimensional gravity.

  8. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  9. A ΛCDM bounce scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yi-Fu; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

    2015-03-01

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  10. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  12. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  13. Type Ia Supernova Models and Progenitor Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Kamiya, Yasuomi; Nakasato, Naohito

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent developments in theoretical studies on the connection between the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the explosion mechanisms. (1) DD-subCh: In the merging of double C+O white dwarfs (DD scenario), if the carbon detonation is induced near the white dwarf (WD) surface in the early dynamical phase, it could result in the (effectively) sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosion. (2) DD-Ch: If no surface C-detonation is ignited, the WD could grow until the Chandrasekhar mass is reached, but the outcome depends on whether the quiescent carbon shell burning is ignited and burns C+O into O+Ne+Mg. (3) SD-subCh: In the single degenerate (SD) scenario, if the He shell-flashes grow strong to induce a He detonation, it leads to the sub-Chandra explosion. (4) SD-Ch: If the He-shell flashes are not strong enough, they still produce interesting amounts of Si and S near the surface of the C+O WD before the explosion. In the Chandra mass explosion, the central density is high enough to produce electron capture elements, e.g., stable 58Ni. Observations of the emission lines of Ni in the nebular spectra provides useful diagnostics of the sub-Chandra vs. Chandra issue. The recent observations of relatively low velocity carbon near the surface of SNe Ia provide also an interesting constraint on the explosion models.

  14. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  15. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  16. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  17. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  18. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  19. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  20. Multiple Scenarios in Higher Education. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heydinger, Richard B.

    A model for generating global scenarios for higher education is presented, and five global scenarios for the future of higher education in the United States are proposed. Multiple scenarios help to set the context in which planning occurs. They are similar to planning assumptions that many institutional research offices prepare as background…

  1. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  2. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  3. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  4. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

  5. Emergence in holographic scenarios for gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieks, Dennis; van Dongen, Jeroen; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-11-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightforwardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  6. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  7. Changing scenarios in the projection market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, Sweta

    2002-04-01

    The projection market is undergoing many dynamic changes. Front LCD and front-reflective (mainly DLP) technologies compete with each other for most projection applications. The front-projector market is still emerging, with new technologies (such as liquid-crystal-on-silicon, or LCOS), new product categories developing (like scenarios in the projection market by examining the developments over last five years. Also, this paper touches on what to expect in the next five years.

  8. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  9. Detecting genuine multipartite entanglement in steering scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jebaratnam, C.

    2016-05-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is a form of quantum nonlocality which is intermediate between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. EPR steering is a resource for quantum key distribution that is device independent on only one side in that it certifies bipartite entanglement when one party's device is not characterized while the other party's device is fully characterized. In this work, we introduce two types of genuine tripartite EPR steering, and derive two steering inequalities to detect them. In a semi-device-independent scenario where only the dimensions of two parties are assumed, the correlations which violate one of these inequalities also certify genuine tripartite entanglement. It is known that Alice can demonstrate bipartite EPR steering to Bob if and only if her measurement settings are incompatible. We demonstrate that quantum correlations can also detect tripartite EPR steering from Alice to Bob and Charlie, even if Charlie's measurement settings are compatible.

  10. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    PubMed Central

    Contractor, Kaiyumars B; Kaur, Kanchan; Rodrigues, Gabriel S; Kulkarni, Dhananjay M; Singhal, Hemant

    2008-01-01

    Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease. PMID:18558006

  11. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  12. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  13. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  14. New cosmic accelerating scenario without dark energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, J. A. S.; Basilakos, S.; Costa, F. E. M.

    2012-11-01

    We propose an alternative, nonsingular, cosmic scenario based on gravitationally induced particle production. The model is an attempt to evade the coincidence and cosmological constant problems of the standard model (ΛCDM) and also to connect the early and late time accelerating stages of the Universe. Our space-time emerges from a pure initial de Sitter stage thereby providing a natural solution to the horizon problem. Subsequently, due to an instability provoked by the production of massless particles, the Universe evolves smoothly to the standard radiation dominated era thereby ending the production of radiation as required by the conformal invariance. Next, the radiation becomes subdominant with the Universe entering in the cold dark matter dominated era. Finally, the negative pressure associated with the creation of cold dark matter (CCDM model) particles accelerates the expansion and drives the Universe to a final de Sitter stage. The late time cosmic expansion history of the CCDM model is exactly like in the standard ΛCDM model; however, there is no dark energy. The model evolves between two limiting (early and late time) de Sitter regimes. All the stages are also discussed in terms of a scalar field description. This complete scenario is fully determined by two extreme energy densities, or equivalently, the associated de Sitter Hubble scales connected by ρI/ρf=(HI/Hf)2˜10122, a result that has no correlation with the cosmological constant problem. We also study the linear growth of matter perturbations at the final accelerating stage. It is found that the CCDM growth index can be written as a function of the Λ growth index, γΛ≃6/11. In this framework, we also compare the observed growth rate of clustering with that predicted by the current CCDM model. Performing a χ2 statistical test we show that the CCDM model provides growth rates that match sufficiently well with the observed growth rate of structure.

  15. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  16. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. PMID:16010760

  17. Soft Selective Sweeps in Complex Demographic Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Benjamin A.; Petrov, Dmitri A.; Messer, Philipp W.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation from de novo mutation can produce so-called soft selective sweeps, where adaptive alleles of independent mutational origin sweep through the population at the same time. Population genetic theory predicts that such soft sweeps should be likely if the product of the population size and the mutation rate toward the adaptive allele is sufficiently large, such that multiple adaptive mutations can establish before one has reached fixation; however, it remains unclear how demographic processes affect the probability of observing soft sweeps. Here we extend the theory of soft selective sweeps to realistic demographic scenarios that allow for changes in population size over time. We first show that population bottlenecks can lead to the removal of all but one adaptive lineage from an initially soft selective sweep. The parameter regime under which such “hardening” of soft selective sweeps is likely is determined by a simple heuristic condition. We further develop a generalized analytical framework, based on an extension of the coalescent process, for calculating the probability of soft sweeps under arbitrary demographic scenarios. Two important limits emerge within this analytical framework: In the limit where population-size fluctuations are fast compared to the duration of the sweep, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the harmonic mean of the variance effective population size estimated over the duration of the sweep; in the opposing slow fluctuation limit, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the instantaneous variance effective population size at the onset of the sweep. We show that as a consequence of this finding the probability of observing soft sweeps becomes a function of the strength of selection. Specifically, in species with sharply fluctuating population size, strong selection is more likely to produce soft sweeps than weak selection. Our results highlight the importance of accurate demographic estimates over short

  18. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Progra...

  19. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  20. Magnetic Nozzle and Plasma Detachment Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breizman, Boris

    2007-11-01

    Some plasma propulsion concepts rely on a strong magnetic field to guide the plasma flow through the thruster nozzle. The question then arises of how the magnetically controlled plasma can detach from the spacecraft. This talk presents a magnetohydrodynamic detachment scenario in which the plasma stretches the magnetic field lines to infinity [1]. Such a scenario is of particular interest for high-power thrusters. As plasma flows along the magnetic field lines, the originally sub-Alfv'enic flow becomes super-Alfv'enic: this transition is similar to what occurs in the solar wind [2]. In order to describe the detachment quantitatively, the ideal MHD equations have been solved analytically for a plasma flow in a slowly diverging nozzle. The solution exhibits a well-behaved transition from sub- to super- Alfv'enic flow inside the nozzle and a rarefaction wave at the edge of the outgoing flow. The magnetic field in the detached plume is almost entirely due to the plasma currents. It is shown that efficient detachment is feasible if the nozzle is sufficiently long. In order to extend the detachment model beyond the idealizations of analytical theory, a Lagrangian fluid code has been developed to solve steady-stated MHD equations and to optimize nozzle efficiency by adjusting the magnetic coil configuration. This numerical tool enables broad parameter scan with modest computational requirements (single workstation). The code has been benchmarked against the idealized analytical picture of plasma detachment and then used to investigate more realistic nozzle configurations that are not analytically tractable. Most recently, the code has been used to interpret experimental data from the Detachment Demonstration Experiment (DDEX) [3] facility at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. In collabotation with: M. Tushentsov, A. Arefiev, R. Bengtson, J.Meyers (University of Texas at Austin), D. Chavers, C. Dobson, J. Jones (Marshall Space Flight Center), B.Schuettpelz, (University of

  1. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  2. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  3. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Nunziata, C.; Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.; Panza, G. F.

    2008-07-08

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  4. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  5. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  6. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  7. UAV team behaviors in operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilmore, John F.; Garbarino, Joseph E.

    2004-09-01

    The Behavior Enhanced Heterogeneous Autonomous Vehicle Environment (BEHAVE) is a distributed system for the command and control of multiple Unmanned Vehicle Systems (UVS) with various sensor payloads (EO, infrared and radar) and mission roles (combat, reconnaissance, penetrator, relay) working in cooperation to fulfill mission goals in light of encountered threats, vehicle damage, and mission redirects. In its current form, BEHAVE provides UVS dynamic route planning/replanning, autonomous vehicle control, platform self-awareness, autonomous threat response, and muti-vehicle cooperation. This paper focuses on BEHAVE's heterogeneous autonomous UVS team cooperation achieved through the transformation of UVS operational doctrine into UVS team behaviors. This level of tactics provides the initial high-level cooperative control guidance and plans for multiple UVSs operating to achieve specific mission goal. BEHAVE's heterogeneous UVS behaviors include inter-vehicle cueing capability on coupled missions based on new threats, targets, and foreshadowing changes in environments, optimizing individual UVS mission roles, enhanced reassignment of mission goals based upon resources consumed and threats encountered, and multi UVS team threat behavior. Threat behaviors include logic incorporated for team scenarios such as drawing out or confusing threats.

  8. The segmented urbilateria: a testable scenario.

    PubMed

    Balavoine, Guillaume; Adoutte, André

    2003-02-01

    The idea that the last common ancestor of bilaterian animals (Urbilateria) was segmented has been raised recently on evidence coming from comparative molecular embryology. Leaving aside the complex debate on the value of genetic evidence, the morphological and developmental evidence in favor of a segmented Urbilateria are discussed in the light of the emerging molecular phylogeny of metazoans. Applying a cladistic character optimization procedure to the question of segmentation is vastly complicated by the problem of defining without ambiguity what segmentation is and to what taxa this definition applies. An ancestral segmentation might have undergone many complex derivations in each different phylum, thus rendering the cladistics approaches problematic. Taking the most general definitions of coelom and segmentation however, some remarkably similar patterns are found across the bilaterian tree in the way segments are formed by the posterior addition of mesodermal segments or somites. Postulating that these striking similarities in mesodermal patterns are ancestral, a scenario for the diversification of bilaterians from a metameric ancestor is presented. Several types of evolutionary mechanisms (specialization, tagmosis, progenesis) operating on a segmented ancestral body plan would explain the rapid emergence of body plans during the Cambrian. We finally propose to test this hypothesis by comparing genes involved in mesodermal segmentation. PMID:21680418

  9. Augmented standard model and the simplest scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Tai Tsun; Wu, Sau Lan

    2015-11-01

    The experimental discovery of the Higgs particle in 2012 by the ATLAS Collaboration and the CMS Collaboration at CERN ushers in a new era of particle physics. On the basis of these data, scalar quarks and scalar leptons are added to each generation of quarks and leptons. The resulting augmented standard model has fermion-boson symmetry for each of three generations, but only one Higgs doublet giving masses to all the elementary particles. A specific special case, the simplest scenario, is studied in detail. In this case, there are twenty six quadratic divergences, and all these divergences are cancelled provided that one single relation between the masses is satisfied. This mass relation contains a great deal of information, and in particular determines the masses of all the right-handed scalar quarks and scalar leptons, while gives relations for the masses of the left-handed ones. An alternative procedure is also given with a different starting point and less reliance on the experimental data. The result is of course the same.

  10. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  11. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  12. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  13. Hospitals in the year 2000: a scenario.

    PubMed

    Foster, J T

    1989-01-01

    Hospitals came into the twentieth century as creations of local, usually altruistic, interests and wrestled with accelerating change throughout the decades. Their success brought third-party financing, employee health plans, and government guarantees for charity care. Success seemed to breed success, and they raced ahead with capital investment in bricks, mortar, and high technology, only to find themselves in increasing trouble as 1990 approached. Writing from the precarious perch of the year 2000, the author views the worsening hospital situation and raises questions about the contradictions of federal interventions, the efforts to create "systems," the plight of small hospitals, and the love-hate role of medical staffs. Offered for consideration is a scenario of a health care crisis in the early 1990s comparable to the savings and loan crisis of 1988. However, this time the federal intervention is not simply in dollars, but, instead, brings on a "health for all" program with national financing and decentralized "district health" management. As in other nations of the world, hospitals become an integral part of the commitment to attack the root causes of ill health. PMID:10296999

  14. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  15. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  16. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  17. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-03-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

  18. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  19. Intelligent scenario generation for simulation-based training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, R. Bowen; Wang, Lui; Baffes, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A training scenario generator object database was developed to serve as a general-purpose mechanism for constructing the context needed to define a simulation scenario. It is found that the ability to automate the development of the input parameters required to produce a challenging simulation scenario targeted at a specific trainee can greatly enhance the efficiency of intelligent training systems. The approach described was used successfully in the payload-assist module deploy/intelligent computer-aided training system.

  20. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  1. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  2. Monte Carlo simulation of scenario probability distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Glaser, R.

    1996-10-23

    Suppose a scenario of interest can be represented as a series of events. A final result R may be viewed then as the intersection of three events, A, B, and C. The probability of the result P(R) in this case is the product P(R) = P(A) P(B {vert_bar} A) P(C {vert_bar} A {intersection} B). An expert may be reluctant to estimate P(R) as a whole yet agree to supply his notions of the component probabilities in the form of prior distributions. Each component prior distribution may be viewed as the stochastic characterization of the expert`s uncertainty regarding the true value of the component probability. Mathematically, the component probabilities are treated as independent random variables and P(R) as their product; the induced prior distribution for P(R) is determined which characterizes the expert`s uncertainty regarding P(R). It may be both convenient and adequate to approximate the desired distribution by Monte Carlo simulation. Software has been written for this task that allows a variety of component priors that experts with good engineering judgment might feel comfortable with. The priors are mostly based on so-called likelihood classes. The software permits an expert to choose for a given component event probability one of six types of prior distributions, and the expert specifies the parameter value(s) for that prior. Each prior is unimodal. The expert essentially decides where the mode is, how the probability is distributed in the vicinity of the mode, and how rapidly it attenuates away. Limiting and degenerate applications allow the expert to be vague or precise.

  3. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  4. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  5. Traffic scenario generation technique for piloted simulation studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, David H.; Wells, Douglas C.

    1985-01-01

    Piloted simulation studies of cockpit traffic display concepts require the development of representative traffic scenarios. With the exception of specific aircraft interaction issues, most research questions can be addressed using traffic scenarios consisting of prerecorded aircraft movements merged together to form a desired traffic pattern. Prerecorded traffic scenarios have distinct research advantages, allowing control of traffic encounters with repeatability of scenarios between different test subjects. A technique is described for generation of prerecorded jet transport traffic scenarios suitable for use in piloted simulation studies. Individual flight profiles for the aircraft in the scenario are created interactively with a computer program designed specifically for this purpose. The profiles are then time-correlated and merged into a complete scenario. This technique was used to create traffic scenarios for the Denver, Colorado area with operations centered at Stapleton International Airport. Traffic scenarios for other areas may also be created using this technique, with appropriate modifications made to the navigation fix locations contained in the flight profile generation program.

  6. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  7. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    SciTech Connect

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  8. Toward predictive scenarios of planetary migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baruteau, Clement

    2008-10-01

    The detection over the past fifteen years of planets orbiting stars other than the Sun, the exoplanets, has provided an exciting opportunity to test our theories of planet formation and evolution. An impressive result inferred from the observations is the significant proportion of exoplanets having a mass comparable to that of Jupiter, and located much closer to their star than Mercury is from our own Sun! These exoplanets, known as the Hot Jupiters, are probably built up from an solid core, so they are unlikely to have formed where they are detected. They should rather have formed further out in the disc, where temperatures are more favorable to their growth. One then needs to explain how planets could move closer to their host star. Remarkably enough, such an explanation was proposed well before the discovery of the first exoplanet. It considered the interaction between a planet and the protoplanetary disc, which leads to a decrease of the planet's semi-major axis. Planets should progressively spiral toward their central star. This is known as planetary migration. Before the beginning of my thesis, many analytical and numerical studies have shown that the migration timescale of low-mass planets is much shorter than the lifetime of the protoplanetary disc. All planets should therefore have migrated to the vicinity of their host star! This is at least in contradiction with the locations of the planets in our Solar System. In order to elaborate predictive scenarios of planet formation and evolution, it is of primary interest to refine our understanding of disc-planet interactions. The inclusion of the disc self-gravity is an illustration of this. With analytical and numerical arguments, we show that discarding the self-gravity leads to a significant overestimate of the differential Lindblad torque for migrating low-mass planets. Another aspect explored in this thesis is the impact of the gas thermodynamics on migration. We show that the thermodynamic evolution of

  9. Scenarios of physics beyond the standard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fok, Ricky

    This dissertation discusses three topics on scenarios beyond the Standard Model. Topic one is the effects from a fourth generation of quarks and leptons on electroweak baryogenesis in the early universe. The Standard Model is incapable of electroweak baryogenesis due to an insufficiently strong enough electroweak phase transition (EWPT) as well as insufficient CP violation. We show that the presence of heavy fourth generation fermions solves the first problem but requires additional bosons to be included to stabilize the electroweak vacuum. Introducing supersymmetric partners of the heavy fermions, we find that the EWPT can be made strong enough and new sources of CP violation are present. Topic two relates to the lepton avor problem in supersymmetry. In the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), the off-diagonal elements in the slepton mass matrix must be suppressed at the 10-3 level to avoid experimental bounds from lepton avor changing processes. This dissertation shows that an enlarged R-parity can alleviate the lepton avor problem. An analysis of all sensitive parameters was performed in the mass range below 1 TeV, and we find that slepton maximal mixing is possible without violating bounds from the lepton avor changing processes: mu → egamma; mu → e conversion, and mu → 3e. Topic three is the collider phenomenology of quirky dark matter. In this model, quirks are particles that are gauged under the electroweak group, as well as a dark" color SU(2) group. The hadronization scale of this color group is well below the quirk masses. As a result, the dark color strings never break. Quirk and anti-quirk pairs can be produced at the LHC. Once produced, they immediately form a bound state of high angular momentum. The quirk pair rapidly shed angular momentum by emitting soft radiation before they annihilate into observable signals. This dissertation presents the decay branching ratios of quirkonia where quirks obtain their masses through electroweak

  10. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-01-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR’B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement. PMID:24455659

  11. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  12. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  13. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  14. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  15. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  16. Scenarios To Illustrate Effective Participation in District and College Governance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Community Coll. League of California, Sacramento.

    This is a joint publication of the Community College League of California and the Academic Senate for California Community Colleges. It presents 27 scenarios that illustrate effective participation in district and college governance. The scenarios represent situations that raise questions regarding the roles of key figures in governance, including…

  17. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  18. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  19. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  20. Student Experience of a Scenario-Centred Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-01-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and…

  1. EPA’s Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of the Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool (ExpoFIRST) is to allow users to draw on data found in the 2011 EFH to develop user-defined scenarios based on route of exposure, medium, receptor(s), timeframe, and dose metric for a contaminant of conce...

  2. Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

  3. An Example Implementation of Schank's Goal-Based Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Chung-Yuan; Moore, David Richard

    2010-01-01

    The Goal-based Scenario method is a design model for applying simulations to instruction. This portfolio item describes an implementation of Goal-based Scenarios for the teaching of statistics. The application demonstrates how simulations can be contextualized and how they can allow learners to engage in legitimate inquiry in the pursuit of their…

  4. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  5. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  6. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  7. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7. PMID:20225840

  8. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  9. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  10. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  11. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  12. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  13. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  14. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1. PMID:25762565

  15. Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Patten, Kenneth O.; Rahmes, Tim

    1997-01-01

    This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

  16. The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

    2008-09-01

    This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  17. Marine storminess in the Mediterranean in future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.

    2009-09-01

    This talk reviews the analysis that is presently available on marine storms, their climatology and change in future climate scenarios. The cyclones that are responsible for the storms are analyzed using a regional climate model simulations of present day (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100, A2 and B2 emission scenarios) and the differences between northern Europe and Mediterranean are discussed. In the A2 and B2 scenarios the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over the Eastern Mediterranean region with respect to present day conditions,. The number of cyclones decreases in future scenarios throughout Europe, except over the central Europe and Mediterranean in summer, where it increases. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. Wind-wave field changes are discussed considering a similar analysis. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean Sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  18. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  19. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  20. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  1. Applying fuzzy bi-dimensional scenario-based model to the assessment of Mars mission architecture scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavana, Madjid; Zandi, Faramak

    2012-02-01

    Sending man to Mars has been a long-held dream of humankind. NASA plans human planetary explorations using approaches that are technically feasible, have reasonable risks and have relatively low costs. This study presents a novel Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model for evaluating a range of potential mission scenarios for the human exploration of Mars. The three alternatives identified by the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) include split mission, combo lander and dual scenarios. The proposed framework subsumes the following key methods: first, the conjunction method is used to minimize the number of alternative mission scenarios; second, the Fuzzy Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (RFMEA) is used to analyze the potential failure of the alternative scenarios; third, the fuzzy group Real Option Analysis (ROA) is used to estimate the expected costs and benefits of the alternative scenarios; and fourth, the fuzzy group permutation approach is used to select the optimal mission scenario. We present the results of a case study at NASA's Johnson Space center to demonstrate: (1) the complexity of mission scenario selection involving subjective and objective judgments provided by multiple space exploration experts; and (2) a systematic and structured method for aggregating quantitative and qualitative data concerning a large number of competing and conflicting mission events.

  2. Student experience of a scenario-centred curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-06-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and laboratory classes and to develop generic skills including team working and communication. Student experience of the first two years the old and new curricula were evaluated using a modified Course Experience Questionnaire. The results showed that students on the new programme were motivated by the scenarios and perceived better generic skills development, but had a lower perception of teaching quality and the development of design skills. The results of the survey support the implementation new curriculum but highlight the importance of strong integration between conventional teaching and scenarios, and the challenges of adapting teaching styles to suit.

  3. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang

    2015-10-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree global-mean surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings and across emissions scenarios with differing composition of change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the rate of change of extreme precipitation also varies across the four emissions scenarios that force the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily precipitation per degree global warming in the multimodel ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extratropical land. These results indicate that in contrast to mean precipitation, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario in most models.

  4. STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    In order to create a strategy for the development of climate scenarios for use in impact assessment, potential techniques of development were reviewed and the information needs of potential users assessed. vailable techniques were assessed through literature reviews and consultat...

  5. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  6. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  7. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  8. SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

    SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

  9. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  10. Scenario aggregation for supply chain quantity-flexibility contract

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Gitae; Wu, Chih-Hang

    2013-11-01

    In this research, we apply a scenario aggregation approach to solving the supply chain contract model formulated by two-stage stochastic programming problem. The supply chain contract can achieve the coordination between the buyer and the supplier. We formulate the stochastic programming model for a quantity-flexibility contract. The scenario aggregation method called the progressive hedging method is used to solve this problem. Experimental results show the convergence behaviour of the algorithm and the sensitivity of parameters.

  11. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  12. Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughlin, D. H.; Benjey, W. G.; Nolte, C. G.

    2010-11-01

    This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

  13. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  14. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  15. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  16. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  17. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  18. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-03-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies.

  19. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  20. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  1. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  2. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  3. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  4. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Van Vuuren, D P; Meinshausen, M; Plattner, G-K; Joos, F; Strassmann, K M; Smith, S J; Wigley, T M L; Raper, S C B; Riahi, K; de la Chesnaye, F; den Elzen, M G J; Fujino, J; Jiang, K; Nakicenovic, N; Paltsev, S; Reilly, J M

    2008-10-01

    Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. PMID:18838680

  5. Confusion and its dynamics during device comprehension with breakdown scenarios.

    PubMed

    D'Mello, Sidney; Graesser, Art

    2014-09-01

    The incidence and dynamics of confusion during complex learning and problem solving were investigated in an experiment where participants first read illustrated texts on everyday devices (e.g., an electric bell) followed by breakdown scenarios reflecting device malfunctions (e.g., "When a person rang the bell there was a short ding and then no sound was heard"). The breakdown scenarios were expected to trigger impasses and put participants in a state of cognitive disequilibrium where they would experience confusion and engage in effortful confusion resolution activities in order to restore equilibrium. The results confirmed that participants reported more confusion when presented with the breakdown scenarios compared to control scenarios that involved focusing on important device components in the absence of malfunctions. A second-by-second analysis of the dynamics of confusion yielded two characteristic trajectories that distinguished participants who partially resolved their confusion from those who remained confused. Participants who were successful in partial confusion resolution while processing the breakdowns outperformed their counterparts on knowledge assessments after controlling for scholastic aptitude, engagement, and frustration. This effect was amplified for those who were highly confused by the breakdowns. There was no direct breakdown vs. control effect on learning, but being actively engaged and partially resolving confusion during breakdown processing were positive predictors of increased learning with the breakdown compared to control scenarios. Implications of our findings for theories that highlight the role of impasses, cognitive disequilibrium, and confusion to learning are discussed. PMID:24973629

  6. Ideal MHD Stability of ITER Steady State Scenarios with ITBs

    SciTech Connect

    F.M. Poli, C.E. Kessel, S. Jardin, J. Manickam, M. Chance, J. Chen

    2011-07-27

    One of ITER goals is to demonstrate feasibility of continuous operations using non-inductive current drive. Two main candidates have been identified for advanced operations: the long duration, high neutron fluency hybrid scenario and the steady state scenario, both operating at a plasma current lower than the reference ELMy scenario [1][2] to minimize the required current drive. The steady state scenario targets plasmas with current 7-10 MA in the flat-top, 50% of which will be provided by the self-generated, pressure-driven bootstrap current. It has been estimated that, in order to obtain a fusion gain Q > 5 at a current of 9 MA, it should be ΒN > 2.5 and H > 1.5 [3]. This implies the presence of an Internal Transport Barrier (ITB). This work discusses how the stability of steady state scenarios with ITBs is affected by the external heating sources and by perturbations of the equilibrium profiles.

  7. Impact of uncertainty in economic projections for stabilization scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krakauer, N. Y.

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios for the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions and/or atmospheric concentrations typically take economic and technological growth, and thus the 'background', no-controls emissions trajectory, as essentially given, most commonly based on one or more of the IPCC SRES scenarios. One limitation of this set of scenarios is that they postulate a rather small range of future economic growth rates, based on extrapolation from recent experience as well as assumed tendencies such as international 'convergence'. Because there is no validated theoretical or empirical method to reliably predict long-term (decade to century) changes in the size and composition of the world economy, the uncertainty in economic path is large and likely understated by any measure derived from the ensemble of SRES scenarios. Considering a wider range of economic trajectories complicates stabilization scenarios. In particular, slow economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to detrimental impacts of climate change. I show with a simple integrated assessment model that taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown generally heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now, rather than in future decades, for stabilizing radiative forcing or welfare damage at a given target.

  8. Testing Damage Scenarios. From Historical Earthquakes To Silent Active Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galli, P.; Orsini, G.; Bosi, V.; di Pasquale, G.; Galadini, F.

    Italy is rich with historical scenarios of disruption and death that arrived up to us through the insight descriptions of hundreds of manuscripts, reports, treatises, letters and epigraphs. All these historical data constitute today one of the most powerful data-base of earthquake-induced effects. Moreover, it is now possible to relate many of these earthquakes to geological structures, the seismogenetic behavior of which has been investigated by means of paleoseismological studies. On the basis of these information and of those gathered through the national census (performed on popu- lation and dwellings by ISTAT, Italian Institute of Statistics in 1991) we developed a methodology (FaCES, Fault-Controlled Earthquake Scenario) which reproduce the damage scenario caused by the rupture of a defined fault, providing an estimate of the losses in terms of damages to building and consequences to population. The reliabil- ity of scenarios has been tested by comparing the historical damage distribution of an earthquake with that obtained applying FaCES to the responsible fault. Finally, we hypothesize the scenario related to three historically-silent faults of central Apennines (Mt. Vettore, Mt. Gorzano and Gran Sasso faults), the Holocene activity of which has been recently ascertained though paleoseimological analyses.

  9. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  10. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

  11. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  12. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  13. Surface Buildup Scenarios and Outpost Architectures for Lunar Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazanek, Daniel D.; Troutman, Patrick A.; Culbert, Christopher J.; Leonard, Matthew J.; Spexarth, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    The Constellation Program Architecture Team and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office have developed an initial set of lunar surface buildup scenarios and associated polar outpost architectures, along with preliminary supporting element and system designs in support of NASA's Exploration Strategy. The surface scenarios are structured in such a way that outpost assembly can be suspended at any time to accommodate delivery contingencies or changes in mission emphasis. The modular nature of the architectures mitigates the impact of the loss of any one element and enhances the ability of international and commercial partners to contribute elements and systems. Additionally, the core lunar surface system technologies and outpost operations concepts are applicable to future Mars exploration. These buildup scenarios provide a point of departure for future trades and assessments of alternative architectures and surface elements.

  14. Beyond Bell's Theorem II: Scenarios with Arbitrary Causal Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    It has recently been found that Bell scenarios are only a small subclass of interesting setups for studying the non-classical features of quantum theory within spacetime. We find that it is possible to talk about classical correlations, quantum correlations and other kinds of correlations on any directed acyclic graph, and this captures various extensions of Bell scenarios that have been considered in the literature. From a conceptual point of view, the main feature of our approach is its high level of unification: while the notions of source, choice of setting and measurement all play seemingly different roles in a Bell scenario, our formalism shows that they are all instances of the same concept of "event". Our work can also be understood as a contribution to the subject of causal inference with latent variables. Among other things, we introduce hidden Bayesian networks as a generalization of hidden Markov models.

  15. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-06-05

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

  16. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures. PMID:25264172

  17. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  18. Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

  19. The neurocognitive effects of simulated use-of-force scenarios.

    PubMed

    Dawes, Donald M; Ho, Jeffrey D; Vincent, Andrea S; Nystrom, Paul C; Moore, Johanna C; Steinberg, Lila W; Tilton, Anne Marie K; Brave, Michael A; Berris, Marc S; Miner, James R

    2014-03-01

    While the physiologic effects of modern conducted electrical weapons (CEW) have been the subject of numerous studies, their effects on neurocognitive functioning, both short-term and long-term, are less well understood. It is also unclear how these effects compare to other use-of-force options or other arrest-related stressors. We compared the neurocognitive effects of an exposure to a TASER(®) (TASER International, Inc, Scottsdale, AZ) X26™ CEW to four other use-of-force scenarios during a training exercise using a well-established neurocognitive metric administered repeatedly over 1 h. Overall, we found that there was a decline in neurocognitive performance immediately post-scenario in all groups, but this effect was transient, of questionable clinical significance, and returned to baseline by 1 h post-scenario. PMID:24213973

  20. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  1. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  2. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  3. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  4. Cosmological moduli problem in large volume scenario and thermal inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Kiwoon; Park, Wan-Il; Shin, Chang Sub E-mail: wipark@kias.re.kr

    2013-03-01

    We show that in a large volume scenario of type IIB string or F-theory compactifications, single thermal inflation provides only a partial solution to the cosmological problem of the light volume modulus. We then clarify the conditions for double thermal inflation, being a simple extension of the usual single thermal inflation scenario, to solve the cosmological moduli problem in the case of relatively light moduli masses. Using a specific example, we demonstrate that double thermal inflation can be realized in large volume scenario in a natural manner, and the problem of the light volume modulus can be solved for the whole relevant mass range. We also find that right amount of baryon asymmetry and dark matter can be obtained via a late-time Affleck-Dine mechanism and the decays of the visible sector NLSP to flatino LSP.

  5. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  6. Non-Gaussianity in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Suyama, Teruaki; Yamaguchi, Masahide

    2008-01-15

    We investigate the non-Gaussianity of primordial curvature perturbations in the modulated reheating scenario where the primordial perturbation is generated due to the spatial fluctuation of the rate of the inflaton decay to radiation. We use the {delta}N formalism to evaluate the trispectrum of the curvature perturbation as well as its bispectrum. We give expressions for three nonlinear parameters f{sub NL}, {tau}{sub NL}, and g{sub NL} in the modulated reheating scenario. If both the intrinsic non-Gaussianity of scalar field fluctuations and third derivative of the decay rate with respect to the scalar fields are negligibly small, g{sub NL} has at least the same order of magnitude as f{sub NL}. We also give a general inequality between f{sub NL} and {tau}{sub NL}, which is true for other inflationary scenarios as long as the primordial non-Gaussianity comes from superhorizon evolution.

  7. Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Z.; Kang, S.

    2012-12-01

    Snow cover changes in the middle (2040-2059) and end (2080-2099) of the 21st century over China were investigated with a regional climate model, nested within the global model BCC_CSM1.1. The simulations had been conducted for the period of 1950 to 2099 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the model perform well in representing contemporary (1986-2005) spatial distributions of snow cover days (SCDs) and snow water equivalent (SWE). However, some differences between observation and simulation were detected. Under the RCP4.5 scenarios, SCDs are shortened by 10~20 and 20~40 days during the middle and end of the 21st century, respectively. Whereas simulated SWE is lowered by 0.1~10 mm in most areas over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). On the other hand, the spatial distributions of SWE are reversed between the middle and end terms in the northeast China. Furthermore, compared with the changes of RCP4.5 scenario, SCDs are reduced by 5~20 days in the middle period under RCP8.5 scenario with even larger decreasing amplitude in the end term. SWE was lowered by 0.1~2.5 mm in most areas except the northeast of China in middle term under RCP8.5 scenario. The great center of SCDs and SWE changes are always located over TP. The regional mean of SCDs and SWE for the TP and for China display a declining trend from 2006 to 2099 with more pronounced changes in the TP than in China as a whole. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes are enhanced compared to those under RCP4.5.

  8. Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Zhenming; Kang, Shichang

    2013-08-01

    Snow cover changes in the middle (2040-2059) and end (2080-2099) of the twenty-first century over China were investigated with a regional climate model, nested within the global model BCC_CSM1.1. The simulations had been conducted for the period of 1950-2099 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the model perform well in representing contemporary (1986-2005) spatial distributions of snow cover days (SCDs) and snow water equivalent (SWE). However, some differences between observation and simulation were detected. Under the RCP4.5 scenarios, SCDs are shortened by 10-20 and 20-40 days during the middle and end of the twenty-first century, respectively. Whereas simulated SWE is lowered by 0.1-10 mm in most areas over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). On the other hand, the spatial distributions of SWE are reversed between the middle and end terms in the northeast China. Furthermore, compared with the changes of RCP4.5 scenario, SCDs are reduced by 5-20 days in the middle period under RCP8.5 scenario with even larger decreasing amplitude in the end term. SWE was lowered by 0.1-2.5 mm in most areas except the northeast of China in middle term under RCP8.5 scenario. The great center of SCDs and SWE changes are always located over TP. The regional mean of SCDs and SWE for the TP and for China display a declining trend from 2006 to 2099 with more pronounced changes in the TP than in China as a whole. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes are enhanced compared to those under RCP4.5.

  9. Generic tsunami scenarios for disasters and early warning preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; Salaün, Tugdual

    2010-05-01

    The implementation of the tsunami early warning systems in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean regions will occur in countries with no preparedness and very little knowledge of potentially affected coastal zones by the various tsunami sources. The final link to coastal communities will be sirens to distribute in the concerned areas. The SCHEMA project aims at elaboration of a generic method to consider various parameters of a particular tsunami scenario. A scenario corresponds to a specific source with a given magnitude or intensity. Since we do not consider only the remote sources with possibilities of warning, local earthquake and submarine landslides are also translated in scenarios to allow the civil protections, municipalities and local stakeholders to assess cases with no real warning possibility, where life will be saved by self evacuation in nearby shelter areas or buildings. The specific temporal dimension of tsunami phenomenon is considered. Oceanic propagation time, expected duration of dangerous waves and wavelength are taken into account with their level of uncertainties. Scenarios are presented by maps and layouts with various information: inundation extension, submersion depth, receding sea limit, currents velocity or modulus of flow, modeled damage level to buildings, affected networks and lifelines. Variable dimensions such as residing or working population, by hour of the day and by season are also considered. Secondary vulnerability factors which may increase damage level to buildings are added (potentially floating objects which may turn into projectiles). The potential evacuation routes and obstacles are represented to support installation of warning networks and definition of shelters as well as evacuation routes. The scenarios are calculated using accurate digital bathymetric and topographic model with less than 10 m ground resolution allowing a very detailed mapping. This accuracy is especially important for scenarios with moderate waves for

  10. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. PMID:25976302

  11. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  12. Portability scenarios for intelligent robotic control agent software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Jeremy

    2014-06-01

    Portability scenarios are critical in ensuring that a piece of AI control software will run effectively across the collection of craft that it is required to control. This paper presents scenarios for control software that is designed to control multiple craft with heterogeneous movement and functional characteristics. For each prospective target-craft type, its capabilities, mission function, location, communications capabilities and power profile are presented and performance characteristics are reviewed. This work will inform future work related to decision making related to software capabilities, hardware control capabilities and processing requirements.

  13. Overview of EMF 22 U.S. Transition Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Fawcett, Allen A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Reilly, J. M.; Weyant, John

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study included a set of U.S. transition scenarios designed to bracket a range of potential U.S. climate policy goals. Models from the six teams that participated in this part of the study include models that have been prominently involved in analyzing proposed U.S. climate legislation, as well as models that have been involved in the Climate Change Science Program and other parts of this EMF 22 study. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. transition scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models.

  14. Testbeds for Assessing Critical Scenarios in Power Control Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dondossola, Giovanna; Deconinck, Geert; Garrone, Fabrizio; Beitollahi, Hakem

    The paper presents a set of control system scenarios implemented in two testbeds developed in the context of the European Project CRUTIAL - CRitical UTility InfrastructurAL Resilience. The selected scenarios refer to power control systems encompassing information and communication security of SCADA systems for grid teleoperation, impact of attacks on inter-operator communications in power emergency conditions, impact of intentional faults on the secondary and tertiary control in power grids with distributed generators. Two testbeds have been developed for assessing the effect of the attacks and prototyping resilient architectures.

  15. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  16. Will Realistic Fossil Fuel Burning Scenarios Prevent Catastrophic Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tans, P. P.; Rutledge, D.

    2012-12-01

    In the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios the driving forces are almost entirely demographic and socio-economic, with scant attention given to potential resource limitations. In a recent study D. Rutledge (2011) shows that in the case of historical coal production, a stable estimate, typically much lower than early estimates of reserves, of total long term production of a region can be obtained well before peak production is reached based on actual production numbers until that point. The estimates are based on produced quantities only, and appear to contradict the assumption of dominant control by socio-economic factors and improvements in technology. Therefore, a projection of climate forcing based on a emissions scenario close to the lowest of the IPCC scenarios may be more realistic. The longevity of the CO2 enhancement in the atmosphere and oceans is thousands of years. The partitioning of the CO2 enhancement between atmosphere and oceans, and thus climate forcing by CO2, is calculated until the year 2500. The fundamental difficulty of CO2 removal strategies is pointed out. The integral of climate forcing until 2500 under a low emissions scenario is still so large that climate change may become an impediment to human development in addition to higher energy costs. D. Rutledge, International J. Coal Geology 85, 23-33 (2011).

  17. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  18. From Guide on the Side to Impresario with a Scenario

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weston, Anthony

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a conception of the teacher as an "Impresario with a Scenario," a multi-centric and co-constructivist model in contrast to the familiarly student-centered and constructivist ideal of the Guide on the Side. I argue that the Impresario conception is truer to the practices of many teachers inspired by the "Guide…

  19. A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Hee-Kyung

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

  20. A Scenario Approach to Assessment of New Communications Media.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spangler, Kathleen; And Others

    In a study supported by the Charles F. Kettering Foundation, a research team developed a methodology for illustrating the effective and ineffective uses of audio, video, and computer teleconferencing by developing scenarios for eacb medium. The group first invented a general situation--a conference involving participants with global, regional, and…

  1. Cyberbullying: Using Virtual Scenarios to Educate and Raise Awareness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Vivian H.; Burnham, Joy J.; Inman, Christopher T.; Ogorchock, Heather N.

    2009-01-01

    This study examined cyberbullying in three distinct phases to facilitate a multifaceted understanding of cyberbullying. The phases included (a) a quantitative survey, (b) a qualitative focus group, and (c) development of educational scenarios/simulations (within the Second Life virtual environment). Phase III was based on adolescent feedback about…

  2. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie, (Edited By); Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  3. Phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy

    SciTech Connect

    Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Das, Subinoy E-mail: subinoy@nyu.edu

    2008-10-15

    We study the phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy, where in addition to a so-called mass-varying neutrino (MaVaN) sector a cosmological constant (from a false vacuum) is driving the accelerated expansion of the universe today. For general power law potentials we calculate the effective equation of state parameter w{sub eff}(z) in terms of the neutrino mass scale. Due to the interaction of the dark energy field ('acceleron') with the neutrino sector, w{sub eff}(z) is predicted to become smaller than -1 for z>0, which could be tested in future cosmological observations. For the scenarios considered, the neutrino mass scale additionally determines which fraction of the dark energy is dynamical, and which originates from the 'cosmological-constant-like' vacuum energy of the false vacuum. On the other hand, the field value of the 'acceleron' field today as well as the masses of the right-handed neutrinos, which appear in the seesaw-type mechanism for small neutrino masses, are not fixed. This, in principle, allows us to realize hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy with a 'high-scale' seesaw where the right-handed neutrino masses are close to the GUT scale. We also comment on how MaVaN hybrid scenarios with 'high-scale' seesaw might help to resolve stability problems of dark energy models with non-relativistic neutrinos.

  4. Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

    2000-01-01

    Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

  5. Brave New World: A Good News Scenario for Educational Reform.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenaghan, D.

    A good news scenario about the future of education in the United States includes many things that are already being done and other things that can be dreamed of. One example is the "Awesome All-Stars Academy," a dream of a group of dedicated politicians, administrators, teachers, parents, community members, and students who took seriously their…

  6. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  7. Scenarios for Leadership and Abandonment in the Transformation of Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caldwell, Brian J.

    This paper presents three scenarios for the future of schools. In all three cases, it is the year 2020 and schools have continued along a trajectory established in the year 2000. In 2020, students have either deserted the public schools, public schools have improved, or there is no longer an institution called a "school." The article examines the…

  8. Online Scenarios in FCS College Courses: Enhancing Critical Thinking Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, Lynda; Thompson, Stacy D.; Richards, Lynne

    2008-01-01

    Critical thinking is a vital skill for higher education students. The Virtual Exchange was created by the authors to provide instructors with a unique approach to helping students enhance their critical thinking skills. Pilot data were collected from three universities where instructors used Virtual Exchange scenarios in their courses in different…

  9. Asia and the Pacific in 2020: Scenarios for Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Power, Colin

    2009-01-01

    By 2020 our world will have changed and with it the shape and role of education and of educational research. One cannot predict the future, but in this paper three possible scenarios are outlined reflecting alternative approaches of government to the economic, political, social and environmental challenges facing the Asia Pacific region. For each…

  10. Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

  11. Excision technique in constrained formulations of Einstein equations: collapse scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero-Carrión, I.; Vasset, N.; Novak, J.; Jaramillo, J. L.

    2015-04-01

    We present a new excision technique used in constrained formulations of Einstein equations to deal with black hole in numerical simulations. We show the applicability of this scheme in several scenarios. In particular, we present the dynamical evolution of the collapse of a neutron star to a black hole, using the CoCoNuT code and this excision technique.

  12. Subsurface Scenarios: What are We Trying to Model?

    EPA Science Inventory

    In collaboration with the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (George Moridis and team),and after a thorough review of the scientific literature and data and interviews with a selection of experts on the topic, a finite number of plausible scenarios were selected for more quantitative...

  13. ICRF scenarios for ITER's half-field phase

    SciTech Connect

    Lerche, E.; Van Eester, D.; Ongena, J.; Johnson, T.; Hellsten, T.; Bilato, R.; Czarnecka, A.; Dumont, R.; Krasilnikov, A.; Maslov, M.; Vdovin, V.

    2011-12-23

    The non-active operation phase of ITER will be done in H and {sup 4}He plasmas at half the nominal magnetic field, B{sub 0} = 2.65T. At this field and for the given frequency range of the ICRF system (f = 40-55MHz), three ICRF heating scenarios are available a priori: (i) Fundamental ICRH of majority H plasmas at f{approx_equal}40MHz,(ii) second harmonic (N= 2) {sup 3}He ICRH in H plasmas at f{approx_equal}53MHz and (iii) fundamental minority H heating in {sup 4}He plasmas at f{approx_equal}40MHz. While the latter is expected to perform well for not too large H concentrations, the heating scenarios available for the Hydrogen plasmas are less robust. Recent JET experiments performed in similar conditions to those expected in ITER's half-field phase confirmed the low performance of these two scenarios and numerical simulations have shown that the situation is not much improved in ITER, mainly because of the rather modest plasma temperature and density expected in its initial operation phase. A summary of the main experimental results obtained at JET followed by numerical predictions for ITER's half-field ICRF heating scenarios will be presented.

  14. Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

    2016-01-01

    Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

  15. An extended matter bounce scenario: current status and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Cai, Yi-Fu

    2015-08-01

    As an alternative to the paradigm of slow roll inflation, we propose an extended scenario of the matter bounce cosmology in which the Universe has experienced a quasi-matter contracting phase with a variable background equation of state parameter. This extended matter bounce scenario can be realized by considering a single scalar field evolving along an approximately exponential potential. Our result reveals that the rolling of the scalar field in general leads to a running behavior on the spectral index of primordial cosmological perturbations and a negative running can be realized in this model. We constrain the corresponding parameter space by using the newly released Planck data. To apply this scenario, we revisit bouncing cosmologies within the context of modified gravity theories, in particular, the holonomy corrected loop quantum cosmology and teleparallel F( T) gravity. A gravitational process of reheating is presented in such a matter bounce scenario to demonstrate the condition of satisfying current observations. We also comment on several unresolved issues that often appear in matter bounce models.

  16. A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances

    SciTech Connect

    Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.

    1997-01-01

    We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.

  17. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Meinshausen, Malte; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Joos, Fortunat; Strassmann, Kuno M.; Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, T. M.; Raper, S.; Riahi, Keywan; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Den Elzen, Michel; Fujino, Junicho; Kejun, Jiang; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2008-10-06

    Estimates on 21st century global mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multi-gas mitigation scenarios now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. By combing emission pathway results from multiple energy-economic models, we show that these mitigation scenarios result in a range of 21st century temperature increase of 0.5 to 4.2°C over 1990 levels as compared to 1.3-7.3 °C for the no-policy cases. About half the range is due to differences in the assumed stringency of the global climate policy and half is due to uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system, specifically, the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity. A minimum warming of about 0.5-2.7°C (avg. 1.3oC) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here - highlighting the need for both emission mitigation and adaptation policies.

  18. Scenario-Based Training at the F.B.I.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitcomb, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The 16-week training program offered by the FBI Academy for all new agents is a scenario-based curriculum that includes a range of subjects from the rules of evidence to defensive tactics and provides agents with a clear understanding of how to conduct a full investigation from start to finish. (JOW)

  19. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  20. Half-life of naled under three test scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tietze, N S; Shaffer, K R; Hester, P G

    1996-06-01

    Decline of naled residue on filter paper was studied after exposure to ultra-low volume droplets in a settling chamber. Naled-treated filter papers were stored under 3 treatment scenarios: 1) in a dark environmental chamber at an average relative humidity (RH) of 46.9% and temperature of 24 degrees C, 2) in a dark environmental chamber at an average RH of 87.7% and temperature of 24 degrees C, and, 3) in direct sunlight in the field. Decline of naled followed first order kinetics in all cases; consequently, half-life of naled under each treatment was determined from the slope of each line. Half-life (+/- 1 SD) of naled was 8.17 +/- 1.24, 4.81 +/- 1.18, and 1.37 +/- 0.24 h, for treatment scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In each test, a significant (P < 0.05) decline in naled residue occurred between initial assessment and 4 h postapplication. The half-life of each treatment scenario was significantly (P < 0.05) different from that of the other 2 scenarios, indicating that both humidity and sunlight affect naled degradation rates. PMID:8827601

  1. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  2. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  3. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... one alternative release scenario for each regulated toxic substance held in a covered process(es) and... applicable: (i) Transfer hose releases due to splits or sudden hose uncoupling; (ii) Process piping releases from failures at flanges, joints, welds, valves and valve seals, and drains or bleeds; (iii)...

  4. The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Association of Research Libraries, 2010

    2010-01-01

    This user's guide was developed to advance local planning at ARL member libraries. It is written for library leaders writ large and for anyone leading or contributing to research library planning processes. Users do not need advanced facilitation skills to benefit from this guide, but facilitators charged with supporting scenario planning will…

  5. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  6. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  7. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  8. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  9. The hypothetical collapse of cape Canaille: different scenarios investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khvostova, O.; Kurkin, A.; Kharif, Ch.

    2009-04-01

    Cassis is a nice touristy town located near Marseille, France. This is one of the top places in the south French coast of the Mediterranean. One of its sightseeing's, the cliff of Cape Canaille is 390 m high, and is the highest coastal cliff in Europe. Due to global warming, the scientific community predicts a rise of the sea level. This will probably enhance the slow erosion of the marl masses located at the foot of the cliff, causing the overhanging of the cliff. This may cause a local tsunami which may become a hazard to the citizens of Cassis. This hypothetical event was discussed and investigated with different scenarios. For the first scenario an axisymmetric, parabolic disturbance of water surface was used. This formula has been used by many researchers to describe the waves generated by explosions in water, explosive eruptions of underwater volcanoes and asteroids striking the ocean. Also the collapse of several blocks was analyzed. Seven identical blocks was considered. The third scenario is cliff falling in a form of an avalanche of rock debris. Funwave model was chosen for the modeling of this hypothetical event. This model is based on Boussinesq-type equations, which provide a general basis for studying wave propagation in two horizontal dimensions. The basic foundation is extended by the addition of terms which include the lowest order effects of non linearity and frequency dispersion. This formulation provides a sound and increasingly well-tested basis for the simulation of wave propagation in coastal region. The results of all the scenario simulations are shown. Also the scenario results were compared to each other.

  10. Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

    SciTech Connect

    Doyle, E J; Budny, R V; DeBoo, J C; Ferron, J R; Jackson, G L; Luce, T C; Murakami, M; Osborne, T H; Park, J; Politzer, P A; Reimerdes, H; Casper, T A; Challis, C D; Groebner, R J; Holcomb, C T; Hyatt, A W; La Haye, R J; McKee, G R; Petrie, T W; Petty, C C; Rhodes, T L; Shafer, M W; Snyder, P B; Strait, E J; Wade, M R; Wang, G; West, W P; Zeng, L

    2008-10-13

    The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for {beta}{sub N} and H{sub 98}, have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of {ge} 400 MW of fusion power production and Q {ge} 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification.

  11. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  12. Assessing magnitude probability distribution through physics-based rupture scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hok, Sébastien; Durand, Virginie; Bernard, Pascal; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    When faced with complex network of faults in a seismic hazard assessment study, the first question raised is to what extent the fault network is connected and what is the probability that an earthquake ruptures simultaneously a series of neighboring segments. Physics-based dynamic rupture models can provide useful insight as to which rupture scenario is most probable, provided that an exhaustive exploration of the variability of the input parameters necessary for the dynamic rupture modeling is accounted for. Given the random nature of some parameters (e.g. hypocenter location) and the limitation of our knowledge, we used a logic-tree approach in order to build the different scenarios and to be able to associate them with a probability. The methodology is applied to the three main faults located along the southern coast of the West Corinth rift. Our logic tree takes into account different hypothesis for: fault geometry, location of hypocenter, seismic cycle position, and fracture energy on the fault plane. The variability of these parameters is discussed, and the different values tested are weighted accordingly. 64 scenarios resulting from 64 parameter combinations were included. Sensitivity studies were done to illustrate which parameters control the variability of the results. Given the weight of the input parameters, we evaluated the probability to obtain a full network break to be 15 %, while single segment rupture represents 50 % of the scenarios. These rupture scenario probability distribution along the three faults of the West Corinth rift fault network can then be used as input to a seismic hazard calculation.

  13. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  14. Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Schwartz, David P.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.

  15. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing

  16. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  17. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  18. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  19. Itinerant scenario for Fe pnictides: Comparison with quantum Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chubukov, Andrey V.; Xing, Rui-Qi

    2016-04-01

    Recent applications of quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique to Fe-based superconductors opened a way to directly verify the applicability of the itinerant scenario for these systems. Fe-based superconductors undergo various instabilities upon lowering temperature (magnetism, superconductivity, nematicity/orbital order), and one can check whether the hierarchy of instabilities obtained within the itinerant approach is the same as in unbiased QMC simulations. In a recent paper [arXiv:1512.08523] the authors considered the simplest two-band model with interaction tailored to favor orbital order. The type of the orbital order found in QMC is different from the one found in earlier itinerant analysis. We report the results of our calculations within the itinerant scenario and argue that they are in perfect agreement with QMC.

  20. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  1. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

    2007-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  2. Damage scenarios and an onboard support system for damaged ships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Jin; Lee, Dongkon; Kang, Hee Jin; Kim, Soo-Young; Shin, Sung-Chul

    2014-06-01

    Although a safety assessment of damaged ships, which considers environmental conditions such as waves and wind, is important in both the design and operation phases of ships, in Korea, rules or guidelines to conduct such assessments are not yet developed. However, NATO and European maritime societies have developed guidelines for a safety assessment. Therefore, it is required to develop rules or guidelines for safety assessments such as the Naval Ship Code (NSC) of NATO. Before the safety assessment of a damaged ship can be performed, the available damage scenarios must be developed and the safety assessment criteria must be established. In this paper, the parameters related to damage by accidents are identified and categorized when developing damage scenarios. The need for damage safety assessment criteria is discussed, and an example is presented. In addition, a concept and specifications for the DB-based supporting system, which is used in the operation phases, are proposed.

  3. On the extra force in brane world scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bejancu, Aurel; Farran, Hani Reda

    2014-09-01

    In the study of the dynamics in a 5D bulk from brane world scenario, an extra force with abnormal properties was detected (cf. [D. Youm, Extra force in brane worlds, Phys. Rev. D62 (2000) 084002; D. Youm, Null geodesics in brane world universe, Mod. Phys. Lett. A16 (2001) 2371; L. F. Zhang and Y. Z. Zhang, Null geodesics in brane world scenarios, Commun. Theor. Phys. (Beijing)41 (2004) 48]). In this paper, by using the Riemannian horizontal connection introduced in [A. Bejancu, A new point of view on general Kaluza-Klein theories, Progr. Theor. Phys.128 (2012) 541], we give a new definition for the extra force in a 5D bulk, and show that it does not contradict the 4D physics. In particular, we show that this force appears very rarely along geodesics in a warped 5D bulk.

  4. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholak, Torsten; Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-01

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a "coherent control interferometer" as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of "quantum delayed-choice" in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.

  5. Melting scenarios for three-dimensional dusty plasma clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schella, André; Miksch, Tobias; Melzer, André; Schablinski, Jan; Block, Dietmar; Piel, Alexander; Thomsen, Hauke; Ludwig, Patrick; Bonitz, Michael

    2011-11-01

    The melting transition of finite three-dimensional dust clouds (Yukawa balls) from a solid-like to a liquid-like state is systematically studied with high spatial and temporal resolution of the individual grains by means of stereoscopy. Two different melting scenarios are reported: Melting is induced first by an increase of plasma power, and second by laser-induced heating. The experiments confirm that melting starts with a loss of orientational correlation, followed by a loss of the radial order upon further heating. While the plasma-power melting is driven via the ion wakefield, laser heating provides a more equilibrium scenario. The internal loss of correlations is well captured by the triple correlation function (TCF) which is insensitive to particle exchanges and the rotation of the cluster as a whole. The critical Coulomb coupling parameter for N=35 is determined as Γcrit≈570. The experimental findings are in good agreement with thermodynamic Monte Carlo simulations.

  6. Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

    PubMed

    Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

    2000-09-01

    In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces. PMID:11066387

  7. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  8. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  9. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario.

    PubMed

    Scholak, Torsten; Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a "coherent control interferometer" as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of "quantum delayed-choice" in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not. PMID:25429946

  10. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  11. Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights From ACGME's Scenario Planning.

    PubMed

    Nasca, Thomas J; Thomas, Charles W

    2015-03-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has the responsibility for overseeing the preparation of future physician specialists and subspecialists to serve the American public. To ensure ACGME's ability to adapt and sustain its accreditation activities in a future marked by significant uncertainty, its administration and board of directors embarked on a planning process that would frame its strategic actions in support of this responsibility. We describe the scenario planning process, and report key insights that resulted from it. We also discuss in greater depth a subset of those insights, which challenge certain conventional truths, call for new collaborative directions for the ACGME, and reaffirm the importance of professionalism in service of the public across all future scenarios evaluated. PMID:26217449

  12. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Scholak, Torsten Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a “coherent control interferometer” as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of “quantum delayed-choice” in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.

  13. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    SciTech Connect

    Arai, Masato; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-02-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  14. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  15. Slow processes in startup scenarios of long-pulse gyrotrons

    SciTech Connect

    Nusinovich, G. S.; Sinitsyn, O. V.; Antonsen, T. M. Jr.; Vlasov, A. N.; Cauffman, S. R.; Felch, K. L.

    2006-08-15

    A gyrotron startup scenario describes the variation of gyrotron parameters during onset of a pulse. This typically includes variations in beam parameters during the voltage rise, in the course of which the operating mode is excited and then driven to high efficiency operation while suppressing other parasitic modes. For long-pulse gyrotrons, however, additional processes with longer time constants should also be considered as part of the startup scenario. Such slow processes include ion neutralization of the beam space charge, thermal expansion of cavity walls caused by their ohmic heating, and reduction of the beam current due to emission cooling of the cathode. In the present paper, we analyze the importance of these effects on the stability and efficiency of gyrotron operation.

  16. Toward a new satellite gravimetric mission: opportunities and scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biancale, Richard; Seoane, Lucia; Gegout, Pascal; Ramillien, Guillaume; Bruinsma, Sean

    Based on the CNES concept of "MIni-Constellation of Research Orbiters for Mapping the Earth Gravity Anomalies" (MICROMEGA) we have refined simulation scenarios in order to meet the requirements of the E.motion project, a proposal for ESA's Earth Explorer-8 mission. Mainly in view of hydrological applications, the foremost objective of next GRACE-like missions is to provide higher spatial resolution but without loss of precision. That is why we aspire a precision of 1 cm at 200 km resolution (spherical harmonic degree 100). This requires the development of a satellite-to-satellite laser link with sub micrometric precision -which should be technologically mature -coupled with optimal orbit and measurement scenarios. This presentation aims to describe the different numerical simulations achieved in this context and to give an optimal realistic configuration.

  17. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  18. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. PMID:26950650

  19. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  20. Medial Prefrontal Cortex: Adding Value to Imagined Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wen-Jing; Horner, Aidan J.; Bisby, James A.; Burgess, Neil

    2016-01-01

    The medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) is consistently implicated in the network supporting autobiographical memory. Whereas more posterior regions in this network have been related to specific processes, such as the generation of visuospatial imagery or the association of items and contexts, the functional contribution of the mPFC remains unclear. However, the involvement of mPFC in estimation of value during decision-making suggests that it might play a similar role in memory. We investigated whether mPFC activity reflects the subjective value of elements in imagined scenarios. Participants in an MRI scanner imagined scenarios comprising a spatial context, a physiological state of need (e.g., thirst), and two items that could be congruent (e.g., drink) or incongruent (e.g., food) with the state of need. Memory for the scenarios was tested outside the scanner. Our manipulation of subjective value by imagined need was verified by increased subjective ratings of value for congruent items and improved subsequent memory for them. Consistent with our hypothesis, fMRI signal in mPFC reflected the modulation of an item’s subjective value by the imagined physiological state, suggesting the mPFC selectively tracked subjective value within our imagination paradigm. Further analyses showed uncorrected effects in non-mPFC regions, including increased activity in the insula when imagining states of need, the caudate nucleus when imagining congruent items, and the anterior hippocampus/amygdala when imagining subsequently remembered items. We therefore provide evidence that the mPFC plays a role in constructing the subjective value of the components of imagined scenarios and thus potentially in reconstructing the value of components of autobiographical recollection. PMID:26042501

  1. Earth to Mars - Scenarios for early manned missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snoddy, William C.

    1988-01-01

    Trajectories and mission types for a manned mission to Mars are reviewed, focusing on what can be undertaken relative to available technologies. The objectives of a manned mission are outlined and several mission scenarios are described. Space Station involvement, an interplanetary manned Mars space vehicle, and the role of artificial gravity are discussed. Possible launch vehicles, surface systems options, and space vehicle configurations are examined.

  2. A hit-and-run giant impact scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reufer, Andreas; Meier, Matthias M. M.; Benz, Willy; Wieler, Rainer

    2012-09-01

    The formation of the Moon from the debris of a slow and grazing giant impact of a Mars-sized impactor on the proto-Earth (Cameron and Ward [1976]. Lunar Planet. Sci. Conf.; Canup and Asphaug [2001]. Nature 412, 708) is widely accepted today. We present an alternative scenario with a hit-and-run collision (Asphaug [2010]. Chem. Erde 70, 199) with a fractionally increased impact velocity and a steeper impact angle.

  3. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  4. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  5. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  6. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  7. Exploring central opacity and asymptotic scenarios in elastic hadron scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fagundes, D. A.; Menon, M. J.; Silva, P. V. R. G.

    2016-02-01

    In the absence of a global description of the experimental data on elastic and soft diffractive scattering from the first principles of QCD, model-independent analyses may provide useful phenomenological insights for the development of the theory in the soft sector. With that in mind, we present an empirical study on the energy dependence of the ratio X between the elastic and total cross sections; a quantity related to the evolution of the hadronic central opacity. The dataset comprises all the experimental information available on proton-proton and antiproton-proton scattering in the c.m. energy interval 5 GeV-8 TeV. Generalizing previous works, we discuss four model-independent analytical parameterizations for X, consisting of sigmoid functions composed with elementary functions of the energy and three distinct asymptotic scenarios: either the standard black disk limit or scenarios above or below that limit. Our two main conclusions are the following: (1) although consistent with the experimental data, the black disk does not represent an unique solution; (2) the data reductions favor a semi-transparent scenario, with asymptotic average value for the ratio X bar = 0.30 ± 0.12. In this case, within the uncertainty, the asymptotic regime may already be reached around 1000 TeV. We present a comparative study of the two scenarios, including predictions for the inelastic channel (diffraction dissociation) and the ratio associated with the total cross-section and the elastic slope. Details on the selection of our empirical ansatz for X and physical aspects related to a change of curvature in this quantity at 80-100 GeV, indicating the beginning of a saturation effect, are also presented and discussed.

  8. Aerosol cloud interaction: a multiplatform-scenario-based methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landulfo, Eduardo; Lopes, Fabío. J. S.; Guerrero-Rascado, Juan Luis; Alados-Arboledas, Lucas

    2015-10-01

    Suspended atmospheric particles i.e. aerosol particles go through many chemical and physical processes and those interactions and transformations may cause particle change in size, structure and composition regulated by mechanisms, which are also present in clouds. These interactions play a great role in the radiation transfer in the atmosphere and are not completely understood as competing effects might occur which are known as indirect aerosol effects. Performing measurements and experiments in remote sensing to improve the knowledge of these processes are also a challenge. In face of that we propose a multi-platform approach based lidar, sun photometry and satellite observations which should be characterized under a scenario perspective in which given the cloud height, geometric and optical geometries in a diurnal/nocturnal basis will make possible to apply different analytical tools in each a set of product that specify the aerosol present in the vicinity of clouds, their optical and physical properties. These scenarios are meant to aid in tagging the expected products and help in creating a robust database to systematically study the aerosol-cloud interaction.In total we will present 6 scenarios: 3 under daylight conditions, 3 under at nighttime. Each scenario and their counterpart should be able to provide the cloud base/top height, aerosol backscattering profile and cloud optical/geometric thickness. In each instance we should count on a 5 wavelength Raman lidar system measurement, a collocated sun photometer and CALIPSO/MODIS observation from AQUA/TERRA platforms. To further improve the aerosol cloud interaction the Raman lidar system should have a water vapor channel or moreover a liquid water channel. In our study we will present a two-day case study to show the methodology feasibility and its potential application.

  9. Merging deterministic and probabilistic approaches to forecast volcanic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peruzzo, E.; Bisconti, L.; Barsanti, M.; Flandoli, F.; Papale, P.

    2009-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex systems largely inaccessible to direct observation. As a consequence, many quantities which are relevant in determining the physical and chemical processes occurring at volcanoes are largely uncertain. On the other hand, the demand for eruption scenario forecast at many hazardous volcanoes in the world is pressing, reflecting into the development and use of increasingly complex physical models and numerical codes. Such codes are capable of accounting for the extremely complex, non-linear behaviour of the volcanic processes, and for the roles of several quantities in determining volcanic scenarios and hazards. However, they often require enormous computer resources and imply long (order of days to weeks) CPU times even on the most advanced parallel computation systems available to-date. As a consequence, they can hardly be used to reasonably cover the spectrum of possible conditions expected at a given volcano. At this purpose, we have started the development of a mixed deterministic-probabilistic approach with the aim of substantially reducing (form order 10000 to 10) the number of simulations needed to adequately represent possible scenarios and their probability of occurrence, corresponding to a given set of probability distributions for the initial/boundary conditions characterizing the system. The core of the problem is to find a "best" discretization of the continuous density function describing the random variables input to the model. This is done through the stochastic quantization theory (Graf and Luschgy, 2000). The application of this theory to volcanic scenario forecast has been tested through both an oversimplified analytical model and a more complex numerical model for magma flow in volcanic conduits, the latter still running in relatively short times to allow comparison with Monte Carlo simulations. The final aim is to define proper strategies and paradigms for application to more complex, time-demanding codes

  10. ANTI-GLITCHES WITHIN THE STANDARD SCENARIO OF PULSAR GLITCHES

    SciTech Connect

    Kantor, E. M.; Gusakov, M. E.

    2014-12-10

    Recent observations of a sudden spin down of the magnetar 1E2259+586, occurring on a timescale not exceeding two weeks (an event that has been dubbed an {sup a}nti-glitch{sup )}, still has not received any interpretation in terms of the standard scenario of pulsar glitches. Motivated by this observation, here we present a toy model that allows for anti-glitches in neutron stars under certain conditions within the standard approach.

  11. Multidecadal Fluvial Sediment Fluxes to Deltas under Environmental Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunn, Frances; Darby, Stephen; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Sediment delivery is vital to sustain delta environments on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Due to factors such as subsidence and sea level rise, deltas sink relative to sea level if sediment is not delivered to and retained on their surfaces. Deltas which sink relative to sea level experience flooding, land degradation and loss, which endangers anthropogenic activities and populations. The future of fluvial sediment fluxes, a key mechanism for sediment delivery to deltas, is uncertain due to complex environmental changes which are predicted to occur over the coming decades. This research investigates fluvial sediment fluxes under environmental changes in order to assess the sustainability of delta environments under potential future scenarios up to 2100. Global datasets of climate change, reservoir construction, and population and GDP as proxies for anthropogenic influence through land use changes are used to drive the catchment numerical model WBMsed, which is being used to investigate the effects of these environmental changes on fluvial sediment delivery. This process produces fluvial sediment fluxes under multiple future scenarios which will be used to assess the future sustainability of a selection of 8 vulnerable deltas, although the approach can be applied to deltas worldwide. By modelling potential future scenarios of fluvial sediment flux, this research contributes to the prognosis for delta environments. The future scenarios will inform management at multiple temporal scales, and indicate the potential consequences for deltas of various anthropogenic activities. This research will both forewarn managers of potentially unsustainable deltas and indicate those anthropogenic activities which encourage or hinder the creation of sustainable delta environments.

  12. Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

  13. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  14. Identification using face regions: application and assessment in forensic scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ramos, Daniel

    2013-12-10

    This paper reports an exhaustive analysis of the discriminative power of the different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios. In practice, when forensic examiners compare two face images, they focus their attention not only on the overall similarity of the two faces. They carry out an exhaustive morphological comparison region by region (e.g., nose, mouth, eyebrows, etc.). In this scenario it is very important to know based on scientific methods to what extent each facial region can help in identifying a person. This knowledge obtained using quantitative and statical methods on given populations can then be used by the examiner to support or tune his observations. In order to generate such scientific knowledge useful for the expert, several methodologies are compared, such as manual and automatic facial landmarks extraction, different facial regions extractors, and various distances between the subject and the acquisition camera. Also, three scenarios of interest for forensics are considered comparing mugshot and Closed-Circuit TeleVision (CCTV) face images using MORPH and SCface databases. One of the findings is that depending of the acquisition distances, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. PMID:24314504

  15. Modelling Changes to Crop Yield Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerber, J. S.; Deryng, D.; Ray, D. K.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.; Ramankutty, N.

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents two sets of quantitative predictions for global soy and maize yields under changes to temperature and precipitation. The climatic changes considered are based on IPCC scenarios A1B and B1 as calculated with a variety of GCMs. One set of crop yield predictions is calculated with the process-based PEGASUS model, the other is based on an empirical climate-analog approach. The core of PEGASUS is a simple global surface energy, water, and carbon balance model. In addition, PEGASUS simulates planting dates and optimum cultivars at different locations of the world, allocates carbon to a grain pool, and uses an empirical relationship to estimate the influence of fertilizer application. In the empirical climate analog approach, recently published global data sets are used to empirically determine maximum attainable (potential) crop yields for a given set of climatic and soil conditions. Farmers are then quantified by their abilities to reach potential yields and as new climatically-limited potential yields obtain under climate change scenarios, farmers’ yields are assumed to evolve proportionally. Preliminary results indicate that global average yields in the future are sensitive to the climate model used to generate the future climate. However, all models indicate a decrease in yields under climate scenarios A1B and B1.

  16. Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.

    PubMed

    Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507

  17. Water footprint scenarios for 2050: a global analysis.

    PubMed

    Ercin, A Ertug; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2014-03-01

    This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF) of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change. In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050. The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources. PMID:24374780

  18. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  19. Pattern Scaling for Developing Change Scenarios in Water Supply Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pierson, D.; Frie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Change factor methodology (CFM), or delta change factor methodology, is a type of pattern scaling. Although a variety of methods are available to develop scenarios, CFMs are widely used for their ease and speed of application and their capability to directly scale local data according to changes suggested by the global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used in a number of ways to estimate future climate scenarios, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. This study compares and contrasts several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables. The study employs several theoretical examples as well as an applied study from the New York City water supply. Results show that in cases where the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of the observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of the GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested: the first is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM, and the second is a default method for circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

  20. Hollow current profile scenarios for advanced tokamak reactor operations

    SciTech Connect

    Gourdain, P.-A.; Leboeuf, J.-N.

    2009-11-15

    Advanced tokamak scenarios are a possible approach to boosting reactor performances. Such schemes usually trigger current holes, a particular magnetohydrodynamics equilibrium where no current or pressure gradients exist in the core of the plasma. While such equilibria have large bootstrap fractions, flat pressure profiles in the plasma core may not be optimal for a reactor. However, moderate modifications of the equilibrium current profile can lead to diamagnetism where most of the pressure gradient is now balanced by poloidal currents and the toroidal magnetic field. In this paper, we consider the properties of diamagnetic current holes, also called ''dual equilibria,'' and demonstrate that fusion throughput can be significantly increased in such scenarios. Their stability is investigated using the DCON code. Plasmas with a beta peak of 30% and an average beta of 6% are found stable to both fixed and free-boundary modes with toroidal mode numbers n=1-4, as well as Mercier and high-n ballooning modes. This is not surprising as these scenarios have a normal beta close to 3.

  1. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). PMID:26855289

  2. Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, Gregory J.; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel; Magadzire, Tamuka; Goldsberry, Kirk P.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.

  3. Neutrino phenomenology of very low-energy seesaw scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gouvea, Andre de; Jenkins, James; Vasudevan, Nirmala

    2007-01-01

    The standard model augmented by the presence of gauge-singlet right-handed neutrinos proves to be an ideal scenario for accommodating nonzero neutrino masses. Among the new parameters of this 'new standard model' are right-handed neutrino Majorana masses M. Theoretical prejudice points to M much larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, but it has recently been emphasized that all M values are technically natural and should be explored. Indeed, M around 1-10 eV can accommodate an elegant oscillation solution to the liquid scintillator neutrino detector (LSND) anomaly, while other M values lead to several observable consequences. We consider the phenomenology of low-energy (M < or approx. 1 keV) seesaw scenarios. By exploring such a framework with three right-handed neutrinos, we can consistently fit all oscillation data--including those from LSND--while partially addressing several astrophysical puzzles, including anomalous pulsar kicks, heavy element nucleosynthesis in supernovae, and the existence of warm dark matter. In order to accomplish all of this, we find that a nonstandard cosmological scenario is required. Finally, low-energy seesaws - regardless of their relation to the LSND anomaly - can also be tested by future tritium beta-decay experiments, neutrinoless double-beta decay searches, and other observables. We estimate the sensitivity of such probes to M.

  4. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  5. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  6. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario?

    SciTech Connect

    Kanemura, Shinya; Nabeshima, Takehiro; Matsumoto, Shigeki; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-09-01

    Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new physics might be beyond the reach at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and the LHC could find only the Higgs boson but nothing else. This is the so-called ''nightmare scenario.'' On the other hand, the existence of the dark matter has been established from various observations. One of the promising candidates for thermal relic dark matter is a stable and electric charge-neutral weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) with mass below the TeV scale. In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the standard model gauge group, which only couples to the Higgs doublet at the lowest order, and investigate the possibility that such WIMP dark matter can be a clue to overcome the nightmare scenario via various phenomenological tests such as the dark matter relic abundance, the direct detection experiments for the dark matter particle, and the production of the dark matter particle at the LHC.

  7. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

  8. On the hadronic cascade scenario for extreme BL Lacs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavecchio, Fabrizio

    2014-03-01

    The peculiar high-energy emission spectrum of the so-called extreme BL Lacs (EHBL) challenges the standard emission models of blazars. Among the possible solutions, the so-called hadronic cascade scenario assumes that the observed high-energy radiation is produced in the intergalactic space through photo-hadronic reactions by ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) with energies up to 1019-20 eV beamed by the blazar jet. Under the assumption - implicit in this model - that the intrinsic high-energy synchrotron self-Compton emission of the blazar does not substantially contribute to the observed γ-ray spectrum, we derive constraints to the basic physical quantities of the jet and we compare them with the requirements of the hadronic cascade scenario. We found that, for a plausible range of relativistic jet Doppler factors (δ = 10-50), the maximum achievable energy of the accelerated protons can exceed 2 × 1019 eV with jet powers of the order of ≈1044 erg s-1, parameters compatible with the requests of the hadronic scenario even if EHBL are embedded in magnetic fields of cosmic filaments. We also discuss the consequences of our results for the possibility that local EHBL contribute to the observed UHECR.

  9. Non-simplified SUSY: widetilde{τ }-coannihilation at LHC and ILC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berggren, M.; Cakir, A.; Krücker, D.; List, J.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Samani, B. Safarzadeh; Seitz, C.; Wayand, S.

    2016-04-01

    If new phenomena beyond the Standard Model will be discovered at the LHC, the properties of the new particles could be determined with data from the High-Luminosity LHC and from a future linear collider like the ILC. We discuss the possible interplay between measurements at the two accelerators in a concrete example, namely a full SUSY model which features a small widetilde{τ }_1-LSP mass difference. Various channels have been studied using the Snowmass 2013 combined LHC detector implementation in the Delphes simulation package, as well as simulations of the ILD detector concept from the Technical Design Report. We investigate both the LHC and the ILC capabilities for discovery, separation and identification of various parts of the spectrum. While some parts would be discovered at the LHC, there is substantial room for further discoveries at the ILC. We finally highlight examples where the precise knowledge about the lower part of the mass spectrum which could be acquired at the ILC would enable a more in-depth analysis of the LHC data with respect to the heavier states.

  10. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  11. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  12. Participatory scenario development for environmental management: a methodological framework illustrated with experience from the UK uplands.

    PubMed

    Reed, M S; Kenter, J; Bonn, A; Broad, K; Burt, T P; Fazey, I R; Fraser, E D G; Hubacek, K; Nainggolan, D; Quinn, C H; Stringer, L C; Ravera, F

    2013-10-15

    A methodological framework is proposed for participatory scenario development on the basis of evidence from the literature, and is tested and refined through the development of scenarios for the future of UK uplands. The paper uses a review of previous work to justify a framework based around the following steps: i) define context and establish whether there is a basis for stakeholder engagement in scenario development; ii) systematically identify and represent relevant stakeholders in the process; iii) define clear objectives for scenario development with stakeholders including spatial and temporal boundaries; iv) select relevant participatory methods for scenario development, during initial scenario construction, evaluation and to support decision-making based on scenarios; and v) integrate local and scientific knowledge throughout the process. The application of this framework in case study research suggests that participatory scenario development has the potential to: i) make scenarios more relevant to stakeholder needs and priorities; ii) extend the range of scenarios developed; iii) develop more detailed and precise scenarios through the integration of local and scientific knowledge; and iv) move beyond scenario development to facilitate adaptation to future change. It is argued that participatory scenario development can empower stakeholders and lead to more consistent and robust scenarios that can help people prepare more effectively for future change. PMID:23774752

  13. Nucleosynthesis constraints on a massive gravitino in neutralino dark matter scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Cyburt, Richard H.; Ellis, John; Fields, Brian D.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.; Spanos, Vassilis C. E-mail: John.Ellis@cern.ch E-mail: fluo@physics.umn.edu E-mail: spanos@physics.umn.edu

    2009-10-01

    The decays of massive gravitinos into neutralino dark matter particles and Standard Model secondaries during or after Big-Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) may alter the primordial light-element abundances. We present here details of a new suite of codes for evaluating such effects, including a new treatment based on PYTHIA of the evolution of showers induced by hadronic decays of massive, unstable particles such as a gravitino. We present several sets of results obtained using these codes, including general constraints on the possible lifetime and abundance of an unstable particle decaying into neutralino dark matter under various hypotheses for its decay mechanism. We also develop an analytical treatment of non-thermal hadron propagation in the early universe, and use this to derive analytical estimates for light-element production and in turn on decaying particle lifetimes and abundances, which confirm our numerical results and illuminate the underlying physics. We then consider specifically the case of an unstable massive gravitino within the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM). We present upper limits on its possible primordial abundance before decay for different possible gravitino masses, with CMSSM parameters along strips where the lightest neutralino provides all the astrophysical cold dark matter density. We do not find any CMSSM solution to the cosmological {sup 7}Li problem for small m{sub 3/2}. Discounting this, for m{sub 1/2} ∼ 500 GeV and tan β = 10 the other light-element abundances impose an upper limit m{sub 3/2}n{sub 3/2}/n{sub γ} ∼< 3 × 10{sup −12} GeV to ∼< 2 × 10{sup −13} GeV for m{sub 3/2} = 250 GeV to 1 TeV, which is similar in both the coannihilation and focus-point strips and somewhat weaker for tan β = 50, particularly for larger m{sub 1/2}. The constraints also weaken in general for larger m{sub 3/2}, and for m{sub 3/2} > 3 TeV we find a narrow range of m{sub 3/2}n{sub 3/2}/n{sub γ}, at

  14. Developing Shipping Emissions Assessments, Inventories and Scenarios (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Inventories of shipping have been important contributions to scientific understanding of regional pollution and transboundary transport. These inventories have also been used to evaluate global scale environmental and climate effects and trends. However, these inventories also inform policy making decisions and this role is increasingly occurring within the timescale of scientific assessment. Shipping exhibits a growth trend for uncontrolled pollutants that is highly coupled to economic activity, and historically increasing faster than many other anthropogenic sources on a global and regional scale. Shipping emissions are being regulated asymmetrically in various dimensions. Some pollutants are being controlled more than others, some regions are subject to stricter controls, and correlated changes in operations are affecting unregulated pollutant emissions. Shipping inventories require more than current assessments, including historic and future scenarios. Generally conceived as sets of business-as-usual (BAU) and high-growth scenarios, ship inventories now also need regulatory control pathways and maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. In this context, shipping inventories also present other challenges to both scientists and policymakers. Systemic bias can occur in non-shipping assessments when emissions along well-traveled shipping lanes are ignored by far offshore scientific studies, even some campaigns that control very carefully the potential influence of the shipping platforms for their measurements. Examples where shipping may contribute understood and potential biases include: a. Health impacts from transboundary pollution b. Ozone trends over the Pacific c. Sulfur emissions from biogenic sources in Northern hemisphere d. Acidification of coastal waters (potential) e. Arctic impacts on snow and ice Other challenges exist. The fuels and technology used by ships are unique from other transportation, from other stationary sources - and these are changing

  15. Transport simulation of ITER scenarios with driven burn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, G.

    2000-08-01

    Transport in the ignited reduced cost ITER devices IAM (Intermediate Aspect Ratio Machine) and LAM (Low Aspect Ratio Machine) is explored by self-consistent simulations using a special version of the 1.5 dimensional BALDUR predictive transport code and applying empirical transport coefficients. The main objective of the study is to determine the thermal energy confinement time τE,r required for operation at the design parameters. It is found that the τE,r value of the inductive IAM (with a helium fraction of 9%) is 3.3 s with argon seeding compared with τE,p = 3.0 s predicted by global scalings. For operation at τE,r = τE,p the value of Q = Pfus/Pb must be reduced from 10 to 6.1, where Pfus is the fusion power and Pb is the beam power. The necessary radiative loss from closed flux surfaces is reached in the argon scenario at high and low separatrix densities. The assumption of flat density profiles and high edge densities is supported by simulations using a new scaling law for the anomalous inward drift velocity. A study of the advanced tokamak scenario of IAM resulting in an estimate of the required energy confinement time is also carried out. Simulation of the inductive LAM argon scenario yields τE,r = 4.0 s compared with τE,p = 3.9 s predicted by global scalings. Here operation at τE,p demands a Q value of 8.7.

  16. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  17. Numerical Simulation Study of the Sanchiao Fault Earthquake Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yi-Min; Lee, Shiann-Jong

    2015-04-01

    Sanchiao fault is a western boundary fault of the Taipei basin located in northern Taiwan, close to the densely populated Taipei metropolitan area. Recent study indicated that there is about 40 km of the fault trace extended to the marine area offshore northern Taiwan. Combining the marine and terrestrial parts, the total fault length of Sanchiao fault could be nearly 70 kilometers which implies that this fault has potential to produce a big earthquake. In this study, we analyze several Sanchiao fault earthquake scenarios based on the recipe for predicting strong ground motion. The characterized source parameters include fault length, rupture area, seismic moment, asperity, and slip pattern on the fault plane. According to the assumption of the characterized source model, Sanchiao fault has been inferred to have the potential to produce an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) larger than 7.0. Three-dimensional seismic simulation results based upon spectral-element method (SEM) indicate that peak ground acceleration (PGA) is significantly stronger along the fault trace. The basin effect also plays an important role when wave propagates in the Taipei basin which cause seismic wave amplified and prolong the shaking for a very long time. Among all rupture scenarios, the rupture propagated from north to south is the most serious one. Owing to the rupture directivity as well as the basin effects, large PGA (>1g) was observed in the Taipei basin, especially in the northwest side. The results of these scenario earthquake simulations will provide important physically-based numerical data for earthquake mitigation and seismic hazard assessment.

  18. Management scenarios for the Jordan River salinity crisis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farber, E.; Vengosh, A.; Gavrieli, I.; Marie, A.; Bullen, T.D.; Mayer, B.; Holtzman, R.; Segal, M.; Shavit, U.

    2005-01-01

    Recent geochemical and hydrological findings show that the water quality of the base flow of the Lower Jordan River, between the Sea of Galilee and the Dead Sea, is dependent upon the ratio between surface water flow and groundwater discharge. Using water quality data, mass-balance calculations, and actual flow-rate measurements, possible management scenarios for the Lower Jordan River and their potential affects on its salinity are investigated. The predicted scenarios reveal that implementation of some elements of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty will have negative effects on the Jordan River water salinity. It is predicted that removal of sewage effluents dumped into the river (???13 MCM/a) will significantly reduce the river water's flow and increase the relative proportion of the saline groundwater flux into the river. Under this scenario, the Cl content of the river at its southern point (Abdalla Bridge) will rise to almost 7000 mg/L during the summer. In contrast, removal of all the saline water (16.5 MCM/a) that is artificially discharged into the Lower Jordan River will significantly reduce its Cl concentration, to levels of 650-2600 and 3000-3500 mg/L in the northern and southern areas of the Lower Jordan River, respectively. However, because the removal of either the sewage effluents or the saline water will decrease the river's discharge to a level that could potentially cause river desiccation during the summer months, other water sources must be allocated to preserve in-stream flow needs and hence the river's ecosystem. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  20. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  1. Origin scenarios for the Kepler 36 planetary system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quillen, Alice C.; Bodman, Eva; Moore, Alexander

    2013-11-01

    We explore scenarios for the origin of two different density planets in the Kepler 36 system in adjacent orbits near the 7:6 mean motion resonance. We find that fine tuning is required in the stochastic forcing amplitude, the migration rate and planet eccentricities to allow two convergently migrating planets to bypass mean motion resonances such as the 4:3, 5:4 and 6:5, and yet allow capture into the 7:6 resonance. Stochastic forcing can eject the system from resonance causing a collision between the planets, unless the disc causing migration and stochastic forcing is depleted soon after resonance capture. We explore a scenario with approximately Mars mass embryos originating exterior to the two planets and migrating inwards towards two planets. We find that gravitational interactions with embryos can nudge the system out of resonances. Numerical integrations with about a half dozen embryos can leave the two planets in the 7:6 resonance. Collisions between planets and embryos have a wide distribution of impact angles and velocities ranging from accretionary to disruptive. We find that impacts can occur at sufficiently high impact angle and velocity that the envelope of a planet could have been stripped, leaving behind a dense core. Some of our integrations show the two planets exchanging locations, allowing the outer planet that had experienced multiple collisions with embryos to become the innermost planet. A scenario involving gravitational interactions and collisions with embryos may account for both the proximity of the Kepler 36 planets and their large density contrast.

  2. Bounds on very low reheating scenarios after Planck

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Salas, P. F.; Lattanzi, M.; Mangano, G.; Miele, G.; Pastor, S.; Pisanti, O.

    2015-12-01

    We consider the case of very low reheating scenarios [TRH˜O (MeV ) ] with a better calculation of the production of the relic neutrino background (with three-flavor oscillations). At 95% confidence level, a lower bound on the reheating temperature TRH>4.1 MeV is obtained from big bang nucleosynthesis, while TRH>4.7 MeV from Planck data (allowing neutrino masses to vary), the most stringent bound on the reheating temperature to date. Neutrino masses as large as 1 eV are possible for very low reheating temperatures.

  3. Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

    2015-11-01

    The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

  4. Simulation of scenario earthquake influenced field by using GIS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zuo, H.-Q.; Xie, L.-L.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1999-01-01

    The method for estimating the site effect on ground motion specified by Borcherdt (1994a, 1994b) is briefly introduced in the paper. This method and the detail geological data and site classification data in San Francisco bay area of California, the United States, are applied to simulate the influenced field of scenario earthquake by GIS technology, and the software for simulating has been drawn up. The paper is a partial result of cooperative research project between China Seismological Bureau and US Geological Survey.

  5. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  6. Modified gravity in three dimensional metric-affine scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bambi, Cosimo; Ghasemi-Nodehi, M.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-08-01

    We consider metric-affine scenarios where a modified gravitational action is sourced by electrovacuum fields in a three dimensional space-time. We first study the case of f (R ) theories, finding deviations near the center as compared to the solutions of general relativity. We then consider Born-Infeld gravity, which has raised a lot of interest in the last few years regarding its applications in astrophysics and cosmology, and show that new features always arise at a finite distance from the center. Several properties of the resulting space-times, in particular in presence of a cosmological constant term, are discussed.

  7. Radiological risk analysis of potential SP-100 space mission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Bartram, B.W.; Weitzberg, A.

    1988-08-19

    This report presents a radiological risk analysis of three representative space mission scenarios utilizing a fission reactor. The mission profiles considered are: a high-altitude mission, launched by a TITAN IV launch vehicle, boosted by chemical upper stages into its operational orbit, a interplanetary nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) mission, started directly from a shuttle parking orbit, a low-altitude mission, launched by the Shuttle and boosted by a chemical stage to its operational orbit, with subsequent disposal boost after operation. 21 refs., 12 figs., 7 tabs.

  8. Global Warming in the 21st Century: An Alternate Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Evidence on a broad range of time scales, from Proterozoic to the most recent periods, shows that the Earth's climate responds sensitively to global forcings. In the past few decades the Earth's surface has warmed rapidly, apparently in response to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The conventional view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate in the 21st century. I will describe an alternate scenario that would slow the rate of global warming and reduce the danger of dramatic climate change. But reliable prediction of future climate change requires improved knowledge of the carbon cycle and global observations that allow interpretation of ongoing climate change.

  9. Writing a Simulation Scenario: A Step-By-Step Guide.

    PubMed

    Bambini, Deborah

    2016-02-01

    Simulation is becoming a widely used method of helping nurses learn and maintain competency in the clinical area for both staff educators in clinical settings and nursing faculty in academic settings. Designing an effective simulation experience requires thoughtful planning, knowledge of educational principles, and knowledge of best practices in both simulation and clinical practice. An evidence-based strategy for writing a simulation scenario for nurses and other health care providers in any setting is described. A step-by-step process is outlined that incorporates best practices. Examples and suggestions are provided to help readers create quality simulation experiences. PMID:26909455

  10. Year 2015 Aircraft Emission Scenario for Scheduled Air Traffic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Sutkus, Donald J.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional scenario of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons)for projected year 2015 scheduled air traffic. These emission inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxides, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  11. Using XDAQ in application scenarios of the CMS experiment

    SciTech Connect

    V. Brigljevic et al.

    2003-10-20

    XDAQ is a generic data acquisition software environment that emerged from a rich set of use-cases encountered in the CMS experiment. They cover not the deployment for multiple sub-detectors and the operation of different processing and networking equipment as well as a distributed collaboration of users with different needs. The use of the software in various application scenarios demonstrated the viability of the approach. We discuss two applications, the tracker local DAQ system for front-end commissioning and the muon chamber validation system. The description is completed by a brief overview of XDAQ.

  12. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  13. Black string corrections in variable tension braneworld scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Da Rocha, Roldão; Hoff da Silva, J. M.

    2012-02-01

    Braneworld models with variable tension are investigated, and the corrections on the black string horizon along the extra dimension are provided. Such corrections are encrypted in additional terms involving the covariant derivatives of the variable tension on the brane, providing profound consequences concerning the black string horizon variation along the extra dimension, near the brane. The black string horizon behavior is shown to be drastically modified by the terms corrected by the brane variable tension. In particular, a model motivated by the phenomenological interesting case regarding Eötvös branes is investigated. It forthwith provides further physical features regarding variable tension braneworld scenarios, heretofore concealed in all previous analysis in the literature. All precedent analysis considered uniquely the expansion of the metric up to the second order along the extra dimension, which is able to evince solely the brane variable tension absolute value. Notwithstanding, the expansion terms aftermath, further accomplished in this paper from the third order on, elicits the successive covariant derivatives of the brane variable tension, and their respective coupling with the extrinsic curvature, the Weyl tensor, and the Riemann and Ricci tensors, as well as the scalar curvature. Such additional terms are shown to provide sudden modifications in the black string horizon in a variable tension braneworld scenario.

  14. Martian mud volcanism: Terrestrial analogs and implications for formational scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skinner, J.A., Jr.; Mazzini, A.

    2009-01-01

    The geology of Mars and the stratigraphic characteristics of its uppermost crust (mega-regolith) suggest that some of the pervasively-occurring pitted cones, mounds, and flows may have formed through processes akin to terrestrial mud volcanism. A comparison of terrestrial mud volcanism suggests that equivalent Martian processes likely required discrete sedimentary depocenters, volatile-enriched strata, buried rheological instabilities, and a mechanism of destabilization to initiate subsurface flow. We outline five formational scenarios whereby Martian mud volcanism might have occurred: (A) rapid deposition of sediments, (B) volcano-induced destabilization, (C) tectonic shortening, (D) long-term, load-induced subsidence, and (E) seismic shaking. We describe locations within and around the Martian northern plains that broadly fit the geological context of these scenarios and which contain mud volcano-like landforms. We compare terrestrial and Martian satellite images and examine the geological settings of mud volcano provinces on Earth in order to describe potential target areas for piercement structures on Mars. Our comparisons help to evaluate not only the role of water as a functional component of geological processes on Mars but also how Martian mud volcanoes could provide samples of otherwise inaccessible strata, some of which could contain astrobiological evidence.

  15. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible

  16. Parameterization of Buoyancy Effects in Generic PWR Boron Dilution Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Galindo-Garcia, Ivan F.; Cotton, Mark A.; Axcell, Brian P.

    2006-07-01

    A computational investigation is undertaken into the role of buoyancy in a PWR boron dilution transient following a postulated Small Break Loss of Coolant Accident (SB-LOCA). In the scenario envisaged there is flow of de-borated and relatively high temperature water from a single cold leg into the downcomer; flow rates are typical of natural circulation conditions. The study focuses upon the development of boron concentration distributions in the downcomer and adopts a 3D-unsteady formulation of the mean flow equations in combination with the standard high-Reynolds-number k-{epsilon} turbulence model. It is found that the Richardson number (Ri = Gr/Re{sup 2}) is the most important group parameterizing the course of a concentration transient. At Ri values characterizing a 'baseline' scenario the results indicate that there is a stable, circumferentially-uniform, descent through the downcomer of a stratified region of low-borated fluid. Qualitatively the same behaviour is found at higher Richardson number, although at Ri values of approximately one-fifth the baseline level there is evidence of large-scale mixing and a consequent absence of concentration stratification. (authors)

  17. Application of the RESRAD computer code to VAMP scenario S

    SciTech Connect

    Gnanapragasam, E.K.; Yu, C.

    1997-03-01

    The RESRAD computer code developed at Argonne National Laboratory was among 11 models from 11 countries participating in the international Scenario S validation of radiological assessment models with Chernobyl fallout data from southern Finland. The validation test was conducted by the Multiple Pathways Assessment Working Group of the Validation of Environmental Model Predictions (VAMP) program coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency. RESRAD was enhanced to provide an output of contaminant concentrations in environmental media and in food products to compare with measured data from southern Finland. Probability distributions for inputs that were judged to be most uncertain were obtained from the literature and from information provided in the scenario description prepared by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. The deterministic version of RESRAD was run repeatedly to generate probability distributions for the required predictions. These predictions were used later to verify the probabilistic RESRAD code. The RESRAD predictions of radionuclide concentrations are compared with measured concentrations in selected food products. The radiological doses predicted by RESRAD are also compared with those estimated by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety.

  18. Simplified models for same-spin new physics scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edelhäuser, Lisa; Krämer, Michael; Sonneveld, Jory

    2015-04-01

    Simplified models are an important tool for the interpretation of searches for new physics at the LHC. They are defined by a small number of new particles together with a specific production and decay pattern. The simplified models adopted in the experimental analyses thus far have been derived from supersymmetric theories, and they have been used to set limits on supersymmetric particle masses. We investigate the applicability of such simplified supersymmetric models to a wider class of new physics scenarios, in particular those with same-spin Standard Model partners. We focus on the pair production of quark partners and analyze searches for jets and missing energy within a simplified supersymmetric model with scalar quarks and a simplified model with spin-1/2 quark partners. Despite sizable differences in the detection efficiencies due to the spin of the new particles, the limits on particle masses are found to be rather similar. We conclude that the supersymmetric simplified models employed in current experimental analyses also provide a reliable tool to constrain same-spin BSM scenarios.

  19. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segnalini, M.; Bernabucci, U.; Vitali, A.; Nardone, A.; Lacetera, N.

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries.

  20. Temperature humidity index scenarios in the Mediterranean basin.

    PubMed

    Segnalini, M; Bernabucci, U; Vitali, A; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

    2013-05-01

    The study was undertaken to describe the temperature humidity index (THI) dynamics over the Mediterranean basin for the period 1971-2050. The THI combines temperature and humidity into a single value, and has been widely used to predict the effects of environmental warmth in farm animals. The analysis was based on daily outputs of the temperature and relative humidity from the Max Planck Institute data using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Emission Scenario A1B. Data revealed a gradual increase of both annual and seasonal THI during the period under investigation and a strong heterogeneity of the Mediterranean area. In particular, the analysis indicated that Spain, southern France and Italy should be expected to undergo the highest THI increase, which in the last decade under study (2041-2050) will range between 3 and 4 units. However, only during summer months the area presents characteristics indicating risk of thermal (heat) stress for farm animals. In this regard, scenario maps relative to the summer season suggested an enlargement of the areas in the basin where summer THI values will likely cause thermal discomfort in farm animals. In conclusion, the study indicated that the Mediterranean basin is likely to undergo THI changes, which may aggravate the consequences of hot weather on animal welfare, performances, health and survival and may help farmers, nutritionists, veterinarians, and policy-makers to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to limit consequences of climate change for the livestock sector in the Mediterranean countries. PMID:22850789

  1. Study of radiation limits in fusion reactor scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, G.

    1999-07-01

    Radiative mantle scenarios of the ignited ITER FDR (Final Design Report) with argon and neon seeding are explored by self-consistent simulations with a special version of the 1.5-D BALDUR predictive transport code. The calculations apply empirical transport coefficients and are carried out both in the bulk and in the SOL. Operation relevant upper limits to the radiative power losses from the main chamber, from closed flux surfaces and from the SOL are found. Both simulations and an analytic study of power balances show that these limits are set by the radiation profile and by the cross-field heat conduction in the SOL. For given heating power, the conductive heat flux across the separatrix and the energy flow to the divertor are also restricted. With high edge density, the required thermal energy confinement times at the radiation limits are found to be 4.4 s in the argon and 4.0 s in the neon scenario. The assumption of flat density profiles and no inward pinch in the whole plasma is supported by simulations using a new scaling relation for the anomalous inward drift. The dependence of the radiation limits on the separatrix density is investigated. Formulas for relevant power limits are presented.

  2. A pedagogical review of electroweak symmetry breaking scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, Gautam

    2011-02-01

    We review different avenues of electroweak symmetry breaking explored over the years. This constitutes a timely exercise as the world's largest and the highest energy particle accelerator, namely, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN near Geneva, has started running whose primary mission is to find the Higgs or some phenomena that mimic the effects of the Higgs, i.e. to unravel the mysteries of electroweak phase transition. In the beginning, we discuss the Standard Model Higgs mechanism. After that we review the Higgs sector of the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model. Then we take up three relatively recent ideas: little Higgs, gauge-Higgs unification and Higgsless scenarios. For the latter three cases, we first present the basic ideas and restrict our illustration to some instructive toy models to provide an intuitive feel of the underlying dynamics, and then discuss, for each of the three cases, how more realistic scenarios are constructed and how to decipher their experimental signatures. Wherever possible, we provide pedagogical details, which beginners might find useful.

  3. Investigating conceptions of intentional action by analyzing participant generated scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Skulmowski, Alexander; Bunge, Andreas; Cohen, Bret R.; Kreilkamp, Barbara A. K.; Troxler, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    We describe and report on results of employing a new method for analyzing lay conceptions of intentional and unintentional action. Instead of asking people for their conceptual intuitions with regard to construed scenarios, we asked our participants to come up with their own scenarios and to explain why these are examples of intentional or unintentional actions. By way of content analysis, we extracted contexts and components that people associated with these action types. Our participants associated unintentional actions predominantly with bad outcomes for all persons involved and linked intentional actions more strongly to positive outcomes, especially concerning the agent. People’s conceptions of intentional action seem to involve more aspects than commonly assumed in philosophical models of intentional action that solely stress the importance of intentions, desires, and beliefs. The additional aspects include decisions and thoughts about the action. In addition, we found that the criteria that participants generated for unintentional actions are not a mere inversion of those used in explanations for intentional actions. Associations between involuntariness and unintentional action seem to be stronger than associations between aspects of voluntariness and intentional action. PMID:26594182

  4. The real world and lunar base activation scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Harrison H.

    1992-01-01

    A lunar base or a network of lunar bases may have highly desirable support functions in a national or international program to explore and settle Mars. In addition, He-3 exported from the Moon could be the basis for providing much of the energy needs of humankind in the twenty-first century. Both technical and managerial issues must be addressed when considering the establishment of a lunar base that can serve the needs of human civilization in space. Many of the technical issues become evident in the consideration of hypothetical scenarios for the activation of a network of lunar bases. Specific and realistic assumptions must be made about the conduct of various types of activities in addition to the general assumptions given above. These activities include landings, crew consumables, power production, crew selection, risk management, habitation, science station placement, base planning, science, agriculture, resource evaluation, readaptation, plant activation and test, storage module landings, resource transport module landings, integrated operations, maintenance, Base 2 activation, and management. The development of scenarios for the activation of a lunar base or network of bases will require close attention to the 'real world' of space operations. That world is defined by the natural environment, available technology, realistic objectives, and common sense.

  5. Simulations of the Magellanic Stream in a First Infall Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Besla, G.; Kallivayalil, N.; Hernquist, L.; van der Marel, R. P.; Cox, T. J.; Kereš, D.

    2010-10-01

    Recent high-precision proper motions from the Hubble Space Telescope suggest that the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC, respectively) are either on their first passage or on an eccentric long period (>6 Gyr) orbit about the Milky Way (MW). This differs markedly from the canonical picture in which the Clouds travel on a quasi-periodic orbit about the MW (period of ~2 Gyr). Without a short-period orbit about the MW, the origin of the Magellanic Stream, a young (1-2 Gyr old) coherent stream of H I gas that trails the Clouds ~150° across the sky, can no longer be attributed to stripping by MW tides and/or ram pressure stripping by MW halo gas. We propose an alternative formation mechanism in which material is removed by LMC tides acting on the SMC before the system is accreted by the MW. We demonstrate the feasibility and generality of this scenario using an N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulation with cosmologically motivated initial conditions constrained by the observations. Under these conditions, we demonstrate that it is possible to explain the origin of the Magellanic Stream in a first infall scenario. This picture is generically applicable to any gas-rich dwarf galaxy pair infalling toward a massive host or interacting in isolation.

  6. Simulations of the Magellanic Stream in a First Infall Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Besla, Gurtina; Kallivayalil, N.; Hernquist, L.; van der Marel, R.; Cox, T.; Keres, D.

    2011-01-01

    Recent high precision proper motions from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) suggest that the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC, respectively) are either on their first passage or on an eccentric long period (≥6 Gyr) orbit about the Milky Way (MW). This differs markedly from the canonical picture in which the Clouds travel on a quasi-periodic orbit about the MW (period of 2 Gyr). Without a short period orbit about the MW, the origin of the Magellanic Stream, a young (1-2 Gyr old) coherent stream of HI gas that trails the Clouds 150 degrees across the sky, can no longer be attributed to stripping by MW tides and/or ram pressure stripping by MW halo gas. We propose an alternative formation mechanism in which material is removed by LMC tides acting on the SMC before the system is accreted by the MW. We demonstrate the feasibility and generality of this scenario using an N-body/SPH simulation with cosmologically motivated initial conditions constrained by the observations. Under these conditions we demonstrate that it is possible to explain the origin of the Magellanic Stream in a first infall scenario. This picture is generically applicable to any gas-rich dwarf galaxy pair infalling towards a massive host or interacting in isolation.

  7. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  8. Tabletop scenarios for realism in bioterrorism and threat preparedness.

    PubMed

    Abraham, Rachel T; Walls, Richard T; Fischer, Mark; Markovic-Reed, Sandra; Solovieva, Tatiana I; Russell, Floyd K; Ducatman, Alan M

    2012-01-01

    Five realistic tabletop scenarios were designed to facilitate threat preparedness training of Medical, Public Health, Nursing, Emergency Services, Mental Health, Allied Health, and Pharmacy personnel. Training scenarios were (1) student contaminates lettuce (Act) in a state university with Shigella sonnei (Agent), (2) dismissed athlete contaminates ice (Act) at the basketball tournament with Escherichia coli (Agent), (3) workers fail to report abandoned backpacks (Act) at a state fair that contain smallpox virus (Agent), (4) terrorists expose county residents (Act) to Pneumonic plague bacterium (Agent), and (5) infected birds expose field-trip participants (Act) to Avian influenza virus (Agent). Evaluation of the tabletops yielded positive ratings of educational outcomes in these domains: well-structured, organized, plausible, realistic, engaging, on-target, useful, and multidisciplinary. Attendees with previous blended-learning courses on bioterrorism and threat preparedness enhanced performance in the tabletop exercises. Evaluative data indicated a new level of competence and self-confidence about being part of a coordinated, local-level, interdisciplinary response. PMID:23472535

  9. Modeling Pollinator Community Response to Contrasting Bioenergy Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Bennett, Ashley B.; Meehan, Timothy D.; Gratton, Claudio; Isaacs, Rufus

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation. PMID:25365559

  10. Melting scenarios for three-dimensional dusty plasma clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Schella, Andre; Miksch, Tobias; Melzer, Andre; Schablinski, Jan; Block, Dietmar; Piel, Alexander; Thomsen, Hauke; Ludwig, Patrick; Bonitz, Michael

    2011-11-15

    The melting transition of finite three-dimensional dust clouds (Yukawa balls) from a solid-like to a liquid-like state is systematically studied with high spatial and temporal resolution of the individual grains by means of stereoscopy. Two different melting scenarios are reported: Melting is induced first by an increase of plasma power, and second by laser-induced heating. The experiments confirm that melting starts with a loss of orientational correlation, followed by a loss of the radial order upon further heating. While the plasma-power melting is driven via the ion wakefield, laser heating provides a more equilibrium scenario. The internal loss of correlations is well captured by the triple correlation function (TCF) which is insensitive to particle exchanges and the rotation of the cluster as a whole. The critical Coulomb coupling parameter for N=35 is determined as {Gamma}{sub crit}{approx_equal}570. The experimental findings are in good agreement with thermodynamic Monte Carlo simulations.

  11. Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

    2014-10-01

    The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

  12. Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bennett, Ashley B; Meehan, Timothy D; Gratton, Claudio; Isaacs, Rufus

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation. PMID:25365559

  13. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  14. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  15. Applications of Microthrusters for Satellite Missions and Formation Flights Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dittus, H.; van Zoest, T.

    2011-11-01

    Low thrust engines (e.g. ion thrusters, arcjet engines, magneto-plasmadynamic systems) with high specific impulses became important tools for recent space missions (SMART 1, Hayabusa 1 …). Although in particular ion thrusters demonstrated high reliability and long term stability, their performance is not sufficient for satellite systems requiring drag-free, high precision attitude and orbit control. An increasing number of missions for geodetic purposes or astronomic science goals as well as formation flight scenarios with precise distance control between single satellites require much better propulsion systems enabling thrust control down to the sub-μN level. Micropropulsion systems must be able (i) to compensate disturbing forces preventing the spacecraft from flying on an ideal geodetic orbit and (ii) to balance tidal forces and spacecraft dynamics in formation flight scenarios. Recent developments (e.g. Field Emission Electric Propulsion—FEEP) are promising but so far not sufficient approaches, wherefore laser induced ablative thrusters are completely new concepts still under study.

  16. Evolution of dwarf galaxies simulated in the cosmological LCDM scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, Alejandro; Colin, Pedro; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Valenzuela, Octavio

    2014-03-01

    We present results from numerical simulations of low-mass galaxies with the aim to explore the way their stellar masses are assembled. We analyze how the mass assembly histories of the parent halo determine the growth of their host galaxy and its implications on the current paradigm of formation and evolution of low-mass structures in the LCDM scenario. We have found that low-mass galaxies simulated in this scenario assemble their stellar masses following roughly the dark matter halo assembly, which seems to be in tension with the downsizing trend suggested by current observational inferences. We show that there is no more room to increase the strength of feedback from astrophysical processes in order to deviate strongly the stellar mass assembly from the dark halo one, as has been recently invoked to solve some of the potential issues faced by CDM-based simulations of dwarf galaxies. Alejandro González acknowledges finacial support from UNAM, Fundacion UNAM, and the APS to attend this meeting.

  17. Necrobiosis lipoidica: A clinicopathological study in the Indian scenario

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Mary; Khopkar, Uday Sharadchandra

    2013-01-01

    Context: Necrobiosis lipoidica (NL) is a chronic granulomatous dermatitis that is commonly associated with diabetes mellitus. Most of the current knowledge about this entity is from western literature. Aims: This study evaluates the clinicohistological features of NL in an Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed clinical features, associated comorbidities, and biopsies of all patients with NL over a period of one year. Results: Five cases of NL were seen during the duration of the study. The preliminary clinical diagnosis ranged from sarcoidosis to tinea incognito. The commonest clinical presentation in the Indian scenario was of asymptomatic erythematous to skin-colored plaques and nodules on the shins with or without central atrophy. The most common site of involvement was the shin (3 of 5 patients). NL was associated with Diabetes mellitus in only two cases, both of whom were male patients. On histology, various patterns of inflammation were seen including the palisading, interstitial, and mixed granulomatous infiltrates. One patient had sarcoidal granulomas in association with an interstitial pattern. Features seen consistently in all cases include perivascular lymphoplasmacytic infiltrates, interstitial lymphocytic infiltrates, and fibroplasia. Interstitial mucin deposition was not observed in any of the biopsies. Conclusion: The diagnosis of NL was missed in most cases due to the rarity of the disease, absence of concomitant diabetes, and atypical presentations. Histology was a useful tool in clinching the diagnosis. PMID:24350007

  18. Scenario liquefaction hazard maps of Santa Clara Valley, Northern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, T.L.; Noce, T.E.; Bennett, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. These curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M 7.8 event on the San Andreas fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M 6.7 event on the Hayward fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M 6.9 event on the Calaveras fault. Ground motions were estimated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is predicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M 7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5 m deep water table is assumed, and from 0.10 to 0.14, if a 5 m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.

  19. Raman resonance in iron-based superconductors: The magnetic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinojosa, Alberto; Cai, Jiashen; Chubukov, Andrey V.

    2016-02-01

    We perform theoretical analysis of polarization-sensitive Raman spectroscopy on NaFe1 -xCoxAs , EuFe 2 As2 , SrFe2As2 , and Ba (Fe1 -xCox )2As2 , focusing on two features seen in the B1 g symmetry channel (in one Fe unit cell notation): the strong temperature dependence of the static, uniform Raman response in the normal state and the existence of a collective mode in the superconducting state. We show that both features can be explained by the coupling of fermions to pairs of magnetic fluctuations via the Aslamazov-Larkin process. We first analyze magnetically mediated Raman intensity at the leading two-loop order and then include interactions between pairs of magnetic fluctuations. We show that the full Raman intensity in the B1 g channel can be viewed as the result of the coupling of light to Ising-nematic susceptibility via Aslamazov-Larkin process. We argue that the singular temperature dependence in the normal state is the combination of the temperature dependencies of the Aslamazov-Larkin vertex and of Ising-nematic susceptibility. We discuss two scenario for the resonance below Tc. One is the resonance due to development of a pole in the fully renormalized Ising-nematic susceptibility. Another is orbital excitonic scenario, in which spin fluctuations generate attractive interaction between low-energy fermions.

  20. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qihong; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-05-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state w of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once w reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if w approaches a constant at t →-∞, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if w decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the emergent scenario that avoids the big bang singularity can be successfully implemented in the EC theory of gravity.

  1. Scenario workshops: A useful method for participatory water resources planning?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatzilacou, Dionyssia; Kallis, Giorgos; Mexa, Alexandra; Coccosis, Harris; Svoronou, Eleni

    2007-06-01

    This article reports on a scenario workshop (SW) for water resources management at the island of Naxos, Greece. The workshop was part of a European research project studying the advantages and limitations of different participatory methods in the context of the Water Framework Directive. It involved policy makers, scientists, business representatives, and citizens from different parts of the island. On the first day, participants worked to envision a sustainable development future for the island and its water resources. Discussion was inspired by four alternative water development scenarios prepared by the organizers. Participants' vision statements emphasized a diversified development path and balanced water solutions. On the second day, participants worked to plan the actions needed to realize their common vision. The SW turned out to be a good method to initiate a multipartner dialogue, to include new stakeholders in the water policy debate, and to a certain extent, to promote learning between participants. On the other hand, it did not appear well suited to resolve conflicts and aid decisions in the face of scientific complexity and uncertainty. SW seems to be a good method for the "upstream," preparatory, capacity-building tasks of a planning process but not for the production of substantive decision outputs such as consensual agreements or action plans. The Naxos experiment also raised the centrality of framing, participant selection, and facilitation in participatory processes.

  2. Physical simulation for low-energy astrobiology environmental scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V D; Marchand, Eric

    2003-01-01

    Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility. PMID:14987481

  3. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  4. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  5. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry; Rudisill, Marianne

    2009-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 surface habitation approach, concept, and assessments performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenarios after the Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) Project Office meeting in April 28-30, 2009. The best attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" were combined into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location.

  6. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from

  7. Scenarios for Dutch Teacher Education. A Trip to Rome: Coach Bus Company or Travel Agency?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco

    2003-01-01

    Stimulated by severe teacher shortages, teacher education in the Netherlands is changing toward competence-based, work- based-, and market-oriented programs. A Dutch scenario project was developed in which four scenarios for the future of teacher education emerged. These scenarios were structured by the freedom of schools to define the type of…

  8. Active, Collaborative and Case-Based Learning with Computer-Based Case Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ward, Robert

    1998-01-01

    Discusses ideas and observations about the development, use, and pedagogy of computer-based case scenarios. Outlines two large computer-based case scenarios written to help students develop their skills and knowledge in business information systems. Considers factors in the design of computer-based case scenarios and related activities that might…

  9. Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

  10. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, B.; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

  12. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  13. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    PubMed

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  14. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure

  15. Transport of Fusion Alpha Particles in ITER Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bass, E. M.; Waltz, R. E.

    2014-10-01

    We predict the fusion-born alpha particle density in steady-state and hybrid (reverse shear) ITER scenarios with an integrated 1D transport model. The model combines ``stiff'' critical gradient alpha-driven Alfvén eigenmode (AE) transport with a quasilinear approximation of microturbulent transport. In an ITER baseline case, AE transport is found to redistribute alphas within the core but not propagate to the loss boundary. The remaining microturbulence at the edge causes negligible alpha-channel energy flux there (neglecting ripple loss). We set the AE stiff transport critical gradient threshold at gAE =gITG , below which microturbulence can nonlinearly suppress AE transport, and the more stringent condition gAE = 0 . Work supported in part by the US DOE under GA-Grant No. DE-FG02-95ER54309 and SciDAC-GSEP Grant No DE-FC02-08ER54977.

  16. Femicide in Italy: national scenario and presentation of four cases.

    PubMed

    Bonanni, Elisa; Maiese, Aniello; Gitto, Lorenzo; Falco, Pietro; Maiese, Adamo; Bolino, Giorgio

    2014-03-01

    Femicide is defined as the killing of a woman by a man because she is a woman. The incidence of femicide has increased over the past few years and accounted for 30.9% of all homicides in 2011 in Italy. Certain features are usually present including asphyxiation as the mechanism of death, an intimate partner as murderer, and a history of sentimental relationship between the victim and the offender. In this paper, we analyse the Italian experience of femicide comparing it with the international scenario. We present four cases of femicide showing peculiar mechanisms of death resulting from various methods of asphyxiation. In all the cases, there had been a relationship between the victim and the offender. We discuss the mechanism of asphyxiation used to kill the women, emphasizing the necessity of a careful evaluation of all data available to reach the correct conclusion in atypical cases of femicide. PMID:24619844

  17. Non-conservative perturbations of homoclinic snaking scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knobloch, Jürgen; Vielitz, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Homoclinic snaking refers to the continuation of homoclinic orbits to an equilibrium E near a heteroclinic cycle connecting E and a periodic orbit P. Typically homoclinic snaking appears in one-parameter families of reversible, conservative systems. Here we discuss perturbations of this scenario which are both non-reversible and non-conservative. We treat this problem analytically in the spirit of the work [3]. The continuation of homoclinic orbits happens with respect to both the original continuation parameter μ and the perturbation parameter λ. The continuation curves are parametrised by the dwelling time L of the homoclinic orbit near P. It turns out that λ (L) tends to zero while the μ vs. L diagram displays isolas or criss-cross snaking curves in a neighbourhood of the original snakes-and-ladder structure. In the course of our studies we adapt both Fenichel coordinates near P and the analysis of Shilnikov problems near P to the present situation.

  18. Developing clinical scenarios from a European perspective: successes and challenges.

    PubMed

    Wiseman, Allison; Horton, Khim

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents developmental work involving students from the University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland (n=9), University of Surrey, England (n=8) and University of Ljubljana and University of Maribor, Slovenia (n=5) participating in the Erasmus Intensive Programme. The Erasmus programme offers a two week 'Summer School' in the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Maribor, Slovenia. Using a participatory approach, facilitators from both the UCD and Surrey engaged with students from all of the universities to develop scenarios for simulated learning experiences, in the care of older people, for utilisation on an e learning facility and within the simulated clinical learning environment. Students developed key transferable skills in learning, such as information literacy, cultural diversity, team working, communication, and clinical skills acquisition whilst exploring differences in healthcare delivery in other European countries. PMID:21315498

  19. Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, K.H.

    1996-12-31

    As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceived problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.

  20. Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Marin, Eduardo; Tomas, Rogelio; Bambade, Philip; Kuroda, Shigeru; Okugi, Toshiyuki; Tauchi, Toshiaki; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; Urakawa, Junji; Parker, Brett; Seryi, Andrei; White, Glen; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

    2012-06-29

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  1. Scenarios For The ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Marin E.; Parker B.; Tomas R. Bambade Kuroda S. Okugi T. Tauchi T. Terunuma N. Urakawa J. Seryi A. White G. Woodley M.

    2010-05-23

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  2. Study of Near Field Communication Technology in University Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz, Irene Luque; Miraz, Guillermo Matas; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

    2009-08-01

    In this paper we present an introduction to the possibilities of NFC (Near Field Communication) technology in the University environment. NFC is the key for the development of interactive systems where "intelligent" objects interact with the user just only by touching the objects with a NFC device. We support that a University environment with active objects dispatching information and services to the users (students and teachers) can introduce an appropriate environment for the fulfillment of the new Educational European directives. Here, we briefly describe some of the possibilities of the NFC technology and we include an example of the use of NFC through a Smart Poster for a scenario where a Department directory is considered.

  3. All noncontextuality inequalities for the n-cycle scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araújo, Mateus; Quintino, Marco Túlio; Budroni, Costantino; Cunha, Marcelo Terra; Cabello, Adán

    2013-08-01

    The problem of separating classical from quantum correlations is, in general, intractable and has been solved explicitly only in a few cases. In particular, known methods cannot provide general solutions for an arbitrary number of settings. We provide the complete characterization of the classical correlations and the corresponding maximal quantum violations for the case of n≥4 observables X0,...,Xn-1, where each consecutive pair {Xi,Xi+1}, sum modn, is jointly measurable. This generalizes both the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt and the Klyachko-Can-Binicioğlu-Shumovsky scenarios, which are the simplest ones for locality and noncontextuality, respectively. In addition, we provide explicit quantum states and settings with maximal quantum violation and minimal quantum dimension.

  4. Randall-Sundrum scenario with bulk dilaton and torsion

    SciTech Connect

    Mukhopadhyaya, Biswarup; Sen, Somasri; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2009-06-15

    We consider a string-inspired torsion-dilaton-gravity action in a Randall-Sundrum braneworld scenario and show that, in an effective four-dimensional theory on the visible brane, the rank-2 antisymmetric Kalb-Ramond field (source of torsion) is exponentially suppressed. The result is similar to our earlier result in [B. Mukhopadhyaya, S. Sen, and S. SenGupta, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 121101 (2002); Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 259902(E) (2002)], where no dilaton was present in the bulk. This offers an explanation of the apparent invisibility of torsion in our space-time. However, in this case the trilinear couplings {approx}TeV{sup -1} between the dilaton and torsion may lead to new signals in TeV-scale experiments, bearing the stamp of extra warped dimensions.

  5. Chaotic Inflationary Scenario in Bianchi Type i Spacetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bali, Raj

    2012-03-01

    Chaotic inflationary model of the early universe proposed by Linde7 is investigated in the frame work of Bianchi type I spacetime. To determine inflationary scenario, we assume that scale factor R3 = ABC ˜ e3Ht, V(φ ) = (1)/(2)m2φ ^2+(λ )/(n)φ ^n, λ being a constant, m the mass, V(ϕ) the potential energy density. It is shown that chaotic model leads to an inflationary phase which also helps in isotropization process. The Higg's field (ϕ) is initially large but decreases due to lapse of time in both cases. The assumption R3 = ABC e3Ht does not lead to FRW model immediately but for large values of t, it reduces to FRW model since shear σ = 0 in FRW model and shear σ ≠ 0 in Bianchi type I model. The physical aspects of the model are also discussed.

  6. Development of computerized scenarios for wildlife exposure to priority substances

    SciTech Connect

    Brownlee, L.J.; McPherson, S.M.; Norton, M.R.; Ward, D.R.; Lloyd, K.M.

    1995-12-31

    A computerized model has been developed to estimate wildlife exposure in the Canadian environment to substances through inhalation and ingestion of food, water and soil. This Windows application was developed in Visual Basic using Microsoft Access databases and designed to make the evaluation process consistent, transparent and efficient. Bird, mammal, amphibian and reptile species were selected on the basis of food guild, body size, habitat and distribution in Canada. Intake rates were estimated using allometric equations or measured intake rates when available. Ingestion rates were estimated from free-living metabolic rates and dietary composition. With the information, the authors will develop the exposure scenarios required for assessments of risk to wildlife from priority substances listed in the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.

  7. Multi-Sensor Person Following in Low-Visibility Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Sales, Jorge; Marín, Raúl; Cervera, Enric; Rodríguez, Sergio; Pérez, Javier

    2010-01-01

    Person following with mobile robots has traditionally been an important research topic. It has been solved, in most cases, by the use of machine vision or laser rangefinders. In some special circumstances, such as a smoky environment, the use of optical sensors is not a good solution. This paper proposes and compares alternative sensors and methods to perform a person following in low visibility conditions, such as smoky environments in firefighting scenarios. The use of laser rangefinder and sonar sensors is proposed in combination with a vision system that can determine the amount of smoke in the environment. The smoke detection algorithm provides the robot with the ability to use a different combination of sensors to perform robot navigation and person following depending on the visibility in the environment. PMID:22163506

  8. The astronaut and the banana peel: An EVA retriever scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shapiro, Daniel G.

    1989-01-01

    To prepare for the problem of accidents in Space Station activities, the Extravehicular Activity Retriever (EVAR) robot is being constructed, whose purpose is to retrieve astronauts and tools that float free of the Space Station. Advanced Decision Systems is at the beginning of a project to develop research software capable of guiding EVAR through the retrieval process. This involves addressing problems in machine vision, dexterous manipulation, real time construction of programs via speech input, and reactive execution of plans despite the mishaps and unexpected conditions that arise in uncontrolled domains. The problem analysis phase of this work is presented. An EVAR scenario is used to elucidate major domain and technical problems. An overview of the technical approach to prototyping an EVAR system is also presented.

  9. Atlantic Hurricanes in Future Scenarios and Associated Insurance Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleppek, S.; Wüest, M.; Raible, C. C.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Stocker, T. F.; Muccione, V.; Bresch, D. N.

    2009-04-01

    The hurricane season 2005 in the Atlantic was the most intense season since the first records with 28 tropical storms of which 15 reached hurricane character (Trenberth and Shea, 2006). Although this year is considered to be an outlier, a substantial increase of the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical Atlantic over the last decades is documented (Sriver and Huber, 2006; Hoyos et al., 2006; Webster et al. 2005; Emanuel, 2005). The role of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the tropical storm activity was discussed already in Emanuel (2005) and Hoyos et al. (2006). Future changes of TC activity is currently under debate (e. g. Bengston et al., 2007). We contribute to this by applying our TC detection and tracking method which was developed for ERA-40 data (Kleppek et al., 2008) to time-slice experiments of two models: The ECHAM5 atmospheric model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany) and the 20 km-mesh, high resolution AGCM (MRI, Tsukuba-city, Japan). From each model two climate simulations are available: For the ECHAM5 a control run for the period 1960-90 and a SRES A2 scenario run for the period 2070-2100 and for the Mesh-AGCM a 20 years run with present day conditions and a 20 years run with end-of-21-century A2 conditions. To estimate losses of the ECHAM5- and Mesh-model hurricanes on the US coast, we have developed probabilistic hurricane event sets which are used as input for catXos, the loss model of the Swiss Reinsurance Company. Preliminary results show higher wind speeds of the ECHAM5 scenario run hurricanes than in the control run, but the numbers of the hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 2 to 4 show no clear difference between the control and scenario run of ECHAM5. Even though the resolution of the simulation is rather high no hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 5 are detected. The total number of TCs decreases for the scenario run. This applies as much to the TCs over the Atlantic as over the US-coast. References: Bengston L., K

  10. Kinematics of the thoracoabdominal contents under various loading scenarios.

    PubMed

    Howes, Meghan K; Gregory, T Stan; Hardy, Warren N; Beillas, Philippe D

    2012-10-01

    High-speed biplane x-ray was used to investigate relative kinematics of the thoracoabdominal organs in response to blunt loading. Four post-mortem human surrogates instrumented with radiopaque markers were subjected to eight crash- specific loading scenarios, including frontal chest and abdominal impacts, as well as driver-shoulder seatbelt loading. Testing was conducted with each surrogate perfused, ventilated, and positioned in an inverted, fixed-back configuration. Displacement of radiopaque markers recorded with high-speed x-ray in two perspectives was tracked using motion analysis software and projected into calibrated three-dimensional coordinates. Internal organ kinematics in response to blunt impact were quantified for the pericardium, lungs, diaphragm, liver, spleen, stomach, mesentery, and bony structures. These data can be used to better understand the interaction of anatomical structures during impact and the associated injury mechanisms, and for the development or validation of human body finite element models. PMID:23625558

  11. The Emergence of the Worldship (II): A Development Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashworth, S.

    The worldship concept rests upon three broad areas of technology development: long-endurance life-support of an isolated human community, in-space infrastructure construction, and high-energy space propulsion. This paper presents a possible scenario for the future growth of a worldship capability in terms of a convergence of these three key technology areas. It is argued that progress in propulsion is likely to be faster than in developing permanent habitation in space, and that therefore the first worldships will be launched after a plateau in vehicle speeds has been reached. Such a plateau is likely to be enforced, not by technological limits, but by economic limits to the energy and power that can be invested in a single vehicle or fleet of vehicles.

  12. Gene flow scenarios with transgenic maize in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Serratos-Hernández, José-Antonio; Islas-Gutiérrez, Fabián; Buendía-Rodríguez, Enrique; Berthaud, Julien

    2004-01-01

    Maize diversity is widespread in Mexico and it has been stewarded by campesinos in small communities until the present. With the arrival of transgenic maize, the objective of this study is to analyze possible scenarios that could result if genetically modified maize were not regulated and openly available in Mexico. By applying a simple logistic model based on the conditions of maize production in Mexico, the dispersion of transgenic maize in different situations within fields of farmers is described. In traditional open systems of freely exchanged seed within communities it is concluded that the most likely outcome of GM maize release is the incorporation of transgenes in the genome of Mexican germplasm and possibly in that of teosinte. PMID:15901097

  13. Modified Chaplygin gas inspired inflationary model in braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jawad, Abdul; Rani, Shamaila; Mohsaneen, Sidra

    2016-05-01

    We investigate the modified Chaplygin gas inspired inflationary regime in the brane-world framework in the presence of standard and tachyon scalar fields. We consider the intermediate inflationary scenario and construct the slow-roll parameters, e-folding numbers, spectral index, scalar and tensor power spectra, tensor to scalar ratio for both scalar field models. We develop the ns - N and r - N planes and concluded that ns˜eq96^{+0.5}_{-0.5} and r≤0.0016 for N˜eq60^{+5}_{-5} in both cases of scalar field models as well as for all values of m. These constraints are consistent with observational data such as WMAP7, WMAP9 and Planck data.

  14. Curvatons and inhomogeneous scenarios with deviation from slow-roll

    SciTech Connect

    Matsuda, Tomohiro

    2008-12-15

    The spectral index is studied at the point where scalar fields deviate from slow-roll during inflation. Considering the deviation, which may cause a significant difference in the time derivative of the Hubble parameter and also in the terms in the evolution equation, we show how the deviation affects the spectral index of the curvature perturbations. Considering conventional inflation, curvatons and other inhomogeneous scenarios as mechanisms for generating the cosmological perturbation, we examine whether the spectral index induced by the deviation from the standard slow-roll can explain the spectral index n-1>0 at k = 0.002 Mpc{sup -1} while keeping n-1<0 at a smaller scale.

  15. Cosmological structure problem of the pre-big bang scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Jai-chan

    1998-02-01

    We calculate the density and gravitational wave spectrums generated in a version of string cosmology termed pre-big bang scenario. The large scale structures are originated from quantum fluctuations of the metric and dilaton field during a pole-like inflation stage driven by a potential-less dilaton field realized in the low-energy effective action of string theory. The generated classical density field and the gravitational wave in the second horizon crossing epoch show tilted spectrums with n ⋍ 4 and n T ⋍ 3 , respectively. These differ from the observed spectrum of the large angular scale anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background radiation which supports scale invariant ones with n ⋍ 1 and n T ⋍ 0 . This suggests that the pre-big bang stage is not suitable for generating the present day observable large scale structures, and suggests the importance of investigating the quantum generation processes during stringy era with higher order quantum correction terms.

  16. A scenario planning approach for disasters on Swiss road network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendes, G. A.; Axhausen, K. W.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2014-05-01

    We study a vehicular traffic scenario on Swiss roads in an emergency situation, calculating how sequentially roads block due to excessive traffic load until global collapse (gridlock) occurs and in this way displays the fragilities of the system. We used a database from Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung which contains length and maximum allowed speed of all roads in Switzerland. The present work could be interesting for government agencies in planning and managing for emergency logistics for a country or a big city. The model used to generate the flux on the Swiss road network was proposed by Mendes et al. [Physica A 391, 362 (2012)]. It is based on the conservation of the number of vehicles and allows for an easy and fast way to follow the formation of traffic jams in large systems. We also analyze the difference between a nonlinear and a linear model and the distribution of fluxes on the Swiss road.

  17. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    1999-09-01

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and

  18. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Langlois, David; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: langlois@apc.univ-paris7.fr E-mail: takesako@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the total entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.

  19. Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease: Changing Indian Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Veena, KM; Jagadishchandra, H; Bhat, Sham S; Shetty, Shishir Ram

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Hand, foot and mouth disease usually affect infants and children. Although seen worldwide, it is not common in India. It is moderately contagious and is spread through direct contact with the mucus, saliva, or feces of an infected person. It typically occurs in small epidemics, usually during the summer and autumn months. The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease has recently been on the rise in India due to the probable mass immunization programs. This report describes a case of hand foot and mouth disease from Mangalore, South India. How to cite this article: Rao PK, Veena KM, Jagadishchandra H, Bhat SS, Shetty SR. Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease: Changing Indian Scenario. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2012;5(3):220-222. PMID:25206173

  20. Altering the mechanical scenario to decrease the driving pressure.

    PubMed

    Borges, João Batista; Hedenstierna, Göran; Larsson, Anders; Suarez-Sipmann, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Ventilator settings resulting in decreased driving pressure (ΔP) are positively associated with survival. How to further foster the potential beneficial mediator effect of a reduced ΔP? One possibility is promoting the active modification of the lung's "mechanical scenario" by means of lung recruitment and positive end-expiratory pressure selection. By taking into account the individual distribution of the threshold-opening airway pressures to achieve maximal recruitment, a redistribution of the tidal volume from overdistended to newly recruited lung occurs. The resulting more homogeneous distribution of transpulmonary pressures may induce a relief of overdistension in the upper regions. The gain in lung compliance after a successful recruitment rescales the size of the functional lung, potentially allowing for a further reduction in ΔP. PMID:26387728

  1. GEOWOW: a drought scenario for multidisciplinary data access and use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Roglia, Elena; Craglia, Massimo; Nativi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    Recent enhancements of the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI; http://www.earthobservations.org/gci_gci.shtml), and in particular the introduction of a middleware in the GCI that brokers across heterogeneous information systems, have increased significantly the number of information resources discoverable worldwide. Now the challenge moves to the next level of ensuring access and use of the resources discovered, which have many different and domain-specific data models, communication protocols, encoding formats, etc. The GEOWOW Project - GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water, http://www.geowow.eu - developed a set of multidisciplinary use scenarios to advance the present GCI. This work describes the "Easy discovery and use of GEOSS resources for addressing multidisciplinary challenges related to drought scenarios" showcase demonstrated at the last GEO Plenary in Foz de Iguazu (Brazil). The scientific objectives of this showcase include: prevention and mitigation of water scarcity and drought situations, assessment of the population and geographical area potentially affected, evaluation of the possible distribution of mortality and economic loss risk, and support in building greater capacity to cope with drought. The need to address these challenges calls for producing scientifically robust and consistent information about the extent of land affected by drought and degradation. Similarly, in this context it is important: (i) to address uncertainties about the way in which various biological, physical, social, and economic factors interact each other and influence the occurrence of drought events, and (ii) to develop and test adequate indices and/or combination of them for monitoring and forecasting drought in different geographic locations and at various spatial scales (Brown et al., 2002). The scientific objectives above can be met with an increased interoperability across the multidisciplinary domains relevant to this drought scenario. In particular

  2. Modelling of pulsed and steady-state DEMO scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Baruzzo, M.; Bolzonella, T.; Fable, E.; Garzotti, L.; Ivanova-Stanik, I.; Kemp, R.; King, D. B.; Schneider, M.; Stankiewicz, R.; Stępniewski, W.; Vincenzi, P.; Ward, D.; Zagórski, R.

    2015-07-01

    Scenario modelling for the demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO) has been carried out using a variety of simulation codes. Two DEMO concepts have been analysed: a pulsed tokamak, characterized by rather conventional physics and technology assumptions (DEMO1) and a steady-state tokamak, with moderately advanced physics and technology assumptions (DEMO2). Sensitivity to impurity concentrations, radiation, and heat transport models has been investigated. For DEMO2, the impact of current driven non-inductively by neutral beams has been studied by full Monte Carlo simulations of the fast ion distribution. The results obtained are a part of a more extensive research and development (R&D) effort carried out in the EU in order to develop a viable option for a DEMO reactor, to be adopted after ITER for fusion energy research.

  3. Small Black Holes in Randall-Sundrum i Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karasik, D.; Sahabandu, C.; Suranyi, P.; Wijewardhana, L. C. R.

    2004-10-01

    An approximation method to study the properties of a small black hole located on the TeV brane in Randall-Sundrum I scenario is presented. The method enables us to find the form of the metric close to the matter distribution when its asymptotic form is given. The short range solution is found as an expansion in the ratio between the Schwarzschild radius of the black hole and the curvature length of the bulk. Long range properties are introduced using the linearized gravity solution as an asymptotic boundary condition. The solution is found up to first order. It is valid in the region close to the horizon but is not valid on the horizon. The regularity of the horizon is still under study.

  4. Extreme solar particle events: The worst case scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Usoskin, Ilya; Kovaltsov, Gennady

    2016-04-01

    Sporadic eruptive energetic events on the Sun may occur during periods of high solar activity. Sometimes such events can be strong or even extreme posing serious hazards for the modern technology and communication dependent society. It is important to asses the worst case scenario for an extreme solar particle event and what the probability of its occurrence. The era of direct scientific exploration of the Sun is short - from few decades to a century, and yet several strong harmful events took place during that time. Can we expect even greater events? How often? What shall we prepare for? In order to answer these questions, one has to rely upon indirect methods by analyzing natural proxy archives. Here we present an overview of the history of extreme solar events in the past, from hundreds to millions of year, based on an analysis of cosmogenic isotopes in terrestrial archives (polar ice cores and tree rings) and in lunar rocks.

  5. The fate of Newton's law in brane-world scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benichou, Raphael; Estes, John

    2012-06-01

    We consider brane-world scenarios embedded into string theory. We find that the D-brane backreaction induces a large increase in the open string's proper length. Consequently the stringy nature of elementary particles can be detected at distances much larger than the fundamental string scale. As an example, we compute the gravitational potential between two open strings ending on backreacting D3-branes in four-dimensional compactifications of type II string theory. We find that the Newtonian potential receives a correction that goes like 1 / r but that is not proportional to the inertial masses of the open strings, implying a violation of the equivalence principle in the effective gravitational theory. This stringy correction is screened by thermal effects when the distance between the strings is greater than the inverse temperature. This suggests new experimental tests for many phenomenological models in type II string theory.

  6. Recent progress in scenario development for the WIPP

    SciTech Connect

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1995-01-19

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing to request the US Environmental Protection Agency to certify compliance with the radioactive waste disposal standards found in 40 CFR Part 191 for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The DOE will also need to demonstrate compliance with a number of other State and Federal standards and, in particular, the Land Disposal Restrictions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), 40 CFR Part 268. Demonstrating compliance with these regulations requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the WIPP disposal system. Re-evaluation and extension of past scenario development for the WIPP forms an integral part of the ongoing performance assessment (PA) process.

  7. Application of Strength Requirements to Complex Loading Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    England, Scott; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2016-01-01

    NASA's endeavors in human spaceflight rely on extensive volumes of human-systems integration requirements to ensure mission success. These requirements protect for space hardware accommodation for the full range of potential crewmembers, but cannot cover every possible action and contingency in detail. This study was undertaken in response to questions from various strength requirement users who were unclear how to apply idealized strength requirements that did not map well to the complex loading scenarios that crewmembers would encounter. Three of the most commonly occurring questions from stakeholders were selected to be investigated with human testing and human modeling. Preliminary findings indicate deviation from nominal postures can affect strength requirement compliance positively or negatively, depending on the nature of the deviation. Human modeling offers some avenues for quickly addressing requirement verification questions, but is limited by the fidelity of the model and environment.

  8. A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

    PubMed Central

    Leggett, A. J.

    1999-01-01

    I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

  9. Observational exclusion of a consistent loop quantum cosmology scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolliet, Boris; Barrau, Aurélien; Grain, Julien; Schander, Susanne

    2016-06-01

    It is often argued that inflation erases all the information about what took place before it started. Quantum gravity, relevant in the Planck era, seems therefore mostly impossible to probe with cosmological observations. In general, only very ad hoc scenarios or hyper fine-tuned initial conditions can lead to observationally testable theories. Here we consider a well-defined and well-motivated candidate quantum cosmology model that predicts inflation. Using the most recent observational constraints on the cosmic microwave background B-modes, we show that the model is excluded for all its parameter space, without any tuning. Some important consequences are drawn for the deformed algebra approach to loop quantum cosmology. We emphasize that neither loop quantum cosmology in general nor loop quantum gravity are disfavored by this study but their falsifiability is established.

  10. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  11. Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios.

    PubMed

    Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

    2013-08-30

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO2/pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle. PMID:23632089

  12. Multi-sensor person following in low-visibility scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sales, Jorge; Marín, Raúl; Cervera, Enric; Rodríguez, Sergio; Pérez, Javier

    2010-01-01

    Person following with mobile robots has traditionally been an important research topic. It has been solved, in most cases, by the use of machine vision or laser rangefinders. In some special circumstances, such as a smoky environment, the use of optical sensors is not a good solution. This paper proposes and compares alternative sensors and methods to perform a person following in low visibility conditions, such as smoky environments in firefighting scenarios. The use of laser rangefinder and sonar sensors is proposed in combination with a vision system that can determine the amount of smoke in the environment. The smoke detection algorithm provides the robot with the ability to use a different combination of sensors to perform robot navigation and person following depending on the visibility in the environment. PMID:22163506

  13. Expansion history with decaying vacuum: a complete cosmological scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, J. A. S.; Basilakos, S.; Solà, J.

    2013-05-01

    We propose a novel cosmological scenario with the space-time emerging from a pure initial de Sitter stage and subsequently evolving into the radiation, matter and dark energy dominated epochs, thereby avoiding the initial singularity and providing a complete description of the expansion history and a natural solution to the horizon problem. The model is based on a dynamical vacuum energy density which evolves as a power series of the Hubble rate. The transit from the inflation into the standard radiation epoch is universal, giving a clue for a successful description of the graceful exit. Since the resulting late time cosmic history is very close to the concordance Λcold dark matter model, the new unified framework embodies a more complete past cosmic evolution than the standard cosmology.

  14. Scenarios for Evolving Seismic Crises: Possible Communication Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Recent advances in operational earthquake forecasting mean that we are very close to being able to confidently compute changes in earthquake probability as seismic crises develop. For instance, we now have statistical models such as ETAS and STEP which demonstrate considerable skill in forecasting earthquake rates and recent advances in Coulomb based models are also showing much promise. Communicating changes in earthquake probability is likely be very difficult, however, as the absolute probability of a damaging event is likely to remain quite small despite a significant increase in the relative value. Here, we use a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model to compute probability changes for a series of earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the forecasts and suggest a number of possible mechanisms that might be used to communicate results in an actual developing seismic crisis.

  15. Accelerator Disaster Scenarios, the Unabomber, and Scientific Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapusta, Joseph I.

    2008-06-01

    The possibility that experiments at high-energy accelerators could create new forms of matter that would ultimately destroy the Earth has been considered several times in the past quarter century. One consequence of the earliest of these disaster scenarios was that the authors of a 1993 article in "Physics Today" who reviewed the experiments that had been carried out at the Bevalac at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory were placed on the FBI's Unabomber watch list. Later, concerns that experiments at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory might create mini black holes or nuggets of stable strange quark matter resulted in a flurry of articles in the popular press. I discuss this history, as well as Richard A. Posner's provocative analysis and recommendations on how to deal with such scientific risks. I conclude that better communication between scientists and nonscientists would serve to assuage unreasonable fears and focus attention on truly serious potential threats to humankind.

  16. Channel Measurement and Modeling for 5G Urban Microcellular Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Peter, Michael; Weiler, Richard J; Göktepe, Barış; Keusgen, Wilhelm; Sakaguchi, Kei

    2016-01-01

    In order to support the development of channel models for higher frequency bands, multiple urban microcellular measurement campaigns have been carried out in Berlin, Germany, at 60 and 10 GHz. In this paper, the collected data is uniformly analyzed with focus on the path loss (PL) and the delay spread (DS). It reveals that the ground reflection has a dominant impact on the fading behavior. For line-of-sight conditions, the PL exponents are close to free space propagation at 60 GHz, but slightly smaller (1.62) for the street canyon at 10 GHz. The DS shows a clear dependence on the scenario (median values between 16 and 38 ns) and a strong distance dependence for the open square and the wide street canyon. The dependence is less distinct for the narrow street canyon with residential buildings. This behavior is consistent with complementary ray tracing simulations, though the simplified model tends to overestimate the DS. PMID:27556462

  17. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network: Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühnlenz, F.; Fischer, J.; Eveslage, I.

    2009-04-01

    to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert's laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed network and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

  18. Economic impacts of the ShakeOut scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rose, A.; Wei, D.; Wein, A.

    2011-01-01

    For the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario, we estimate $68 billion in direct and indirect business interruption (BI) and $11 billion in related costs in addition to the $113 billion in property damage in an eight-county Southern California region. The modeled conduits of shock to the economy are property damage and lifeline service outages that affect the economy’s ability to produce. Property damage from fire is 50% greater than property damage from shaking because fire is more devastating. BI from water service disruption and fire each represent around one-third of total BI losses because of the long duration of service outage or long restoration and reconstruction periods. Total BI losses are 4.3% of annual gross output in the affected region, an impact far larger than most conventional economic recessions. These losses are still much lower than they potentially could be due to the resilience of the economy.

  19. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  20. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  1. Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios for the City of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slavov, S.; Paskaleva, I.; Kouteva, M.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G. F.

    The city of Sofia is exposed to a high seismic risk. Macroseismic intensities in the range of VIII - X (MSK) can be expected in the city. The earthquakes that can influence the hazard in Sofia originate either beneath the city or are caused by seismic sources located within a radius of 40 km. The city of Sofia is also prone to the remote Vrancea seismic zone in Romania, and particularly vulnerable are the long-period elements of the built environment. The high seismic risk and the lack of instrumental recordings of the regional seismicity make the use of appropriate credible earthquake scenarios and ground-motion modelling approaches for defining the seismic input for the city of Sofia necessary. Complete synthetic seismic signals, due to several earthquake scenarios, were computed along chosen geological profiles crossing the city, applying a hybrid technique, which combines the modal summation technique and finite differences. The modelling takes into account simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the site, the position and geometry of the seismic source and the mechanical properties of the propagation medium. Acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories and related quantities of earthquake engineering interest (e.g., response spectra, ground-motion amplification along the profiles) have been supplied. The approach applied in this study allows us to obtain the definition of the seismic input at low cost, exploiting large quantities of existing data (e.g. geotechnical, geological, seismological). It may be efficiently used to estimate the ground motion for the purposes of microzonation, urban planning, retrofitting or insurance of the built environment, etc.

  2. Assessment of a French scenario with the INPRO methodology

    SciTech Connect

    Vasile, A.; Fiorini, G.L.; Cazalet, J.; Linet, F.L.; Moulin, V.; Greneche, D.

    2006-07-01

    This paper presents the French contribution to the Joint Study of the IAEA International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO). It concerns the application of the INPRO methodology to a French scenario, on the transition from present LWRs to EPRs in a first phase and to 4. generation fast reactors in a second phase during the 21. century. The scenario also considers the renewal of the present fuel cycle facilities by the third and the fourth generation ones. Present practice of plutonium recycling in PWR is replaced by the middle of the century by a global recycling of actinides, uranium, plutonium and minor actinides in fast reactors. The status and the evolution of the INPRO criteria and the corresponding indicators during the studied period are analyzed for each of the six considered areas: economics, safety, environment, waste management, proliferation resistance and infrastructure. Improvements on economic and safety are expected for both the EPR and the 4. generation systems having these improvements among their basic goals. The use of fast reactors and global recycling of actinides leads to a significant improvement on environment indicators and in particular on the natural resources utilization. The envisaged waste management policy results in significant reductions on mass, thermal loads and radiotoxicity of the final waste which only contains fission products. The use of fuels that do not relay on enriched uranium and separated plutonium increases the proliferation resistance characteristics of the future fuel cycle. The paper summarizes also some recommendations on the data, codes and methods used to support the continuous improvement of the INPRO methodology and help future assessors. (authors)

  3. Epidemics Scenarios in the “Romantic Network”

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M.; Gonçalves, Sebastián

    2012-01-01

    The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the “Romantic network”, is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time. PMID:23209561

  4. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  5. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  6. Observational evidence for an inside-out substorm onset scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, Michael G

    2008-01-01

    We present observations which provide strong support for a substorm onset scenario in which a localized inner magnetospheric instability developed first and was later followed by the development of a Near Earth Neutral Line (NENL) farther down-tail. Specifically, we find that the onset began as a localized brightening of an intensified growth phase arc which developed as a periodic series of arc-aligned (i.e. azimuthally arrayed) bright spots. As the disturbance grew, it evolved into vortical structures that propagated poleward and eventually morphed into an east-west aligned arc system at the poleward edge of the auroral substorm bulge. The auroral intensification shows an exponential growth with an estimated e-folding time of around 188 seconds (linear growth rate, {gamma} of 5.33 x 10{sup -3} s{sup -1}). During the initial breakup, no obvious distortions of auroral forms to the north were observed. However, during the expansion phase, intensifications of the poleward boundary of the expanding bulge were observed together with the equatorward ejection of auroral streamers into the bulge. A strong particle injection was observed at geosynchronous orbit, but was delayed by several minutes relative to onsel. Ground magnetometer data also shows a two phase development of mid-latitude positive H-bays, with a quasi-linear increase in H between the onset and the injection. We conclude that this event provides strong evidence in favor of the so-called 'inside-out' substorm onset scenario in which the near Earth region activates first followed at a later time by the formation of a near-to-mid tail substorm X-line. The ballooning instability is discussed as a likely mechanism for the initial onset.

  7. Allowable carbon emissions for a medium mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Huntingford, C.; Kawamiya, M.

    2012-04-01

    The world climate research centres are currently running Earth System Models (ESMs) forced by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Based on these future pathways in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the emphasis has been mainly on estimating the associated levels of global warming that might be expected. There is also the important task of determining emission trajectories associated with the pathways, that may then be assessed by socio-economists for feasibility. Here we use an earth system model of intermediate complexity and a probabilistic framework to estimate the range of future temperature change and allowable emissions corresponding to a medium CO2 concentration pathway (RCP4.5). Uncertainty is initially estimated by allowing the equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within the widely accepted ranges. The results are then further constrained by extensive use of contemporary measurements. The resulting range of temperatures corresponding to RCP4.5 remains large. By year 2300, the predicted global temperature increase from pre-industrial has ± 2 standard deviation range of 1.4K, either side of a mean of 3.0K with 91% probability for increase over 2K. This result has major implications for future planning, as the difference between the upper and lower levels of warming may be expected to be enormous in terms of impacts, and quite possibly could differentiate between what is deemed "dangerous change" or otherwise. After constraint using contemporary data, the ensemble mean of the experiment allows similar emissions to the standard RCP4.5 emission scenario. The allowable emission for the peak emission period is projected as 11.5±2.0 PgC yr-1. Our ensemble demonstrates that, with high probability, drastic cuts in emissions will be required and that there is a probability of around 2% that there will need to be an extended period of time with global negative

  8. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  9. Generic exposure scenarios: their development, application, and interpretation under REACH.

    PubMed

    Money, Chris; Margary, Alison; Noij, Dook; Hommes, Kees

    2011-06-01

    The European Union Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) Regulation (EC 1907/2006) places significant new obligations on the manufacturers or importers (M/Is) of chemicals in Europe. It also places new responsibilities on downstream users (DUs) of these chemicals i.e. those that purchase and use chemical products. In particular, for registered classified substances, the M/I is expected to communicate how any substance can be safely used without risk to man or the environment. This communication is in the form of an exposure scenario (ES), which is included in an Annex to the REACH extended safety data sheet. DUs then have certain obligations relating to adopting the control conditions described in the ES. The REACH Technical Guidance Documents lay down the expectations for the process of risk assessment that M/Is should adopt when developing ESs. But with many thousands of chemicals in daily commerce, it is also necessary to ensure that what is communicated to DUs not only meets the requirements of REACH but is also understandable to these groups, as well as being consistent across different chemical suppliers and supply chains. In cooperation with relevant DU groups, the European solvents industry has developed generic approaches for describing how solvents are commonly used, in order that these can subsequently be used as the basis for REACH registrations and related safety data sheet communications on health risk control. The utility of these approaches (termed 'generic exposure scenarios') is acknowledged under REACH and they are now publicly available for use both by M/Is and DUs. PMID:21551289

  10. Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

    2016-06-01

    Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

  11. Testing inflation and curvaton scenarios with CMB distortions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clesse, Sébastien; Garbrecht, Björn; Zhu, Yi

    2014-10-01

    Prior to recombination, Silk damping causes the dissipation of energy from acoustic waves into the monopole of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), resulting in spectral distortions. These can be used to probe the primordial scalar power spectrum on smaller scales than it is possible with CMB anisotropies. An enhancement of power on these scales is nevertheless required for the resulting distortions to be detectable by future experiments like PIXIE. In this paper, we examine all 49 single-field inflation models listed by Martin et al. in the Encyclopaedia Inflationaris [1] and find that only one of these may lead to a detectable level of distortions in a tuned region of its parameter space, namely the original hybrid model. Three effective multi-field scenarios are also studied: with softly and suddenly turning trajectories, and with a mild waterfall trajectory. Softly turning trajectories do not induce distortions at any detectable level, whereas a sudden turn in the field space or a mild waterfall trajectory predicts a peak (plus damped oscillations in the sudden turn case) in the scalar power spectrum, which can lead to an observable amount of CMB distortions. Finally, another scenario leading to potentially detectable distortions involves a curvaton whose blue spectrum is subdominant on CMB angular scales and overtakes the inflaton spectrum on smaller scales. In this case however, we show that the bounds from ultra compact minihaloes are not satisfied. Expectations for an ultimate PRISM-class experiment characterized by an improvement in sensitivity by a factor of ten are discussed for some models.

  12. Validation of a dose warping algorithm using clinically realistic scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Dehghani, H; Green, S; Webster, G J

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Dose warping following deformable image registration (DIR) has been proposed for interfractional dose accumulation. Robust evaluation workflows are vital to clinically implement such procedures. This study demonstrates such a workflow and quantifies the accuracy of a commercial DIR algorithm for this purpose under clinically realistic scenarios. Methods: 12 head and neck (H&N) patient data sets were used for this retrospective study. For each case, four clinically relevant anatomical changes have been manually generated. Dose distributions were then calculated on each artificially deformed image and warped back to the original anatomy following DIR by a commercial algorithm. Spatial registration was evaluated by quantitative comparison of the original and warped structure sets, using conformity index and mean distance to conformity (MDC) metrics. Dosimetric evaluation was performed by quantitative comparison of the dose–volume histograms generated for the calculated and warped dose distributions, which should be identical for the ideal “perfect” registration of mass-conserving deformations. Results: Spatial registration of the artificially deformed image back to the planning CT was accurate (MDC range of 1–2 voxels or 1.2–2.4 mm). Dosimetric discrepancies introduced by the DIR were low (0.02 ± 0.03 Gy per fraction in clinically relevant dose metrics) with no statistically significant difference found (Wilcoxon test, 0.6 ≥ p ≥ 0.2). Conclusion: The reliability of CT-to-CT DIR-based dose warping and image registration was demonstrated for a commercial algorithm with H&N patient data. Advances in knowledge: This study demonstrates a workflow for validation of dose warping following DIR that could assist physicists and physicians in quantifying the uncertainties associated with dose accumulation in clinical scenarios. PMID:25791569

  13. A Data Signature Approach for Analyzing, Manipulating and Understanding Collections of Graphical Summaries of Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; Powers, Mary E.; Chin, George; Johnson, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Sloughter, James M.

    2004-06-15

    Analysis goals associated with collections of scenarios include: • Summarizing a collection of scenarios – the summarization could take the form of identification of typical patterns of relations within the collection • Retrieve similar scenarios/cases – the retrieval could be based on parts of scenarios; the similar ‘complete’ scenarios could be used to suggest additional lines of investigation • Find “relation paths” between key actors A signature-vector strategy is presented that addresses the above analysis goals. The broad strategy has been applied in various settings.

  14. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    SciTech Connect

    Duinker, Peter N. . E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca; Greig, Lorne A. . E-mail: lgreig@essa.com

    2007-04-15

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development.

  15. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  16. Data supporting the comparative life cycle assessment of different municipal solid waste management scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Ali Rajaeifar, Mohammad; Tabatabaei, Meisam; Ghanavati, Hossein

    2015-01-01

    Environmental assessment of municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios would help to select eco-friendly scenarios. In this study, the inventory data in support of life cycle assessment of different MSW are presented. The scenarios were defined as: anaerobic digestion (AD, Sc-0), landfilling combined with composting (Sc-1), incineration (Sc-2), incineration combined with composting (Sc-3), and AD combined with incineration (Sc-4). The current article contains flowcharts of the different scenarios. Additionally, six supplementary files including inventory data on the different scenarios, data on the different damage assessment categories, normalization, and single scores are presented (Supplementary files 1–6). The analysis of the different scenarios revealed that the most eco-friendly scenario to be implemented in the future would be the combination of AD and incineration (Sc-4). PMID:26217743

  17. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  18. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  19. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  20. Vibration signal analysis for gear fault diagnosis with various crack progression scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed, Omar D.; Rantatalo, Matti; Aidanpää, Jan-Olov; Kumar, Uday

    2013-12-01

    There are different analytical scenarios assumed for crack propagation in the gear tooth root. This paper presents an investigation of the performance of statistical fault detection indicators (the RMS and kurtosis) for three different series of crack propagation scenarios, to compare these scenarios from a fault diagnostics point of view. These scenarios imply different forms of cracks with propagation by a certain step of crack depth. The first scenario assumes a crack being extended through the whole tooth width with a uniform crack depth distribution, while the second scenario assumes the crack being extended through the whole tooth width with a parabolic crack depth distribution, and finally in the third scenario the crack is assumed to be propagating in both the depth and the length directions simultaneously. The time-varying gear mesh stiffness has been investigated using the programme code developed in the present research, and the crack propagation can be modelled with any of the presented crack propagation scenarios. Dynamic simulation has been performed to obtain the residual signals of all the studied cases for each crack propagation scenario. The comparison of the statistical indicators applied to the residual signals shows that in the first scenario the faults are most easily detectable, since in this scenario there is a change in the indicators implying a dramatic decrease in the gear mesh stiffness. The fault detection in the 2nd scenario is more difficult, as the crack propagates with no significant reflection on the mesh stiffness loss. The 3rd proposed scenario should receive more attention in research because it could occur in reality in case of non-uniform load distribution. However, with this scenario it is difficult to perform early fault detection, since there is a very slight change in the statistical indicators at the beginning of the crack propagation. After which, these indicators show a significant change when the crack grows deeper