Science.gov

Sample records for vector wind change

  1. Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida: Wind aloft profile change vs. time, phase 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1977-01-01

    Wind vector change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, is examined according to the theory of multivariate normality. The joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from fifteen years of twice daily Rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh, has been tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from one to five hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented.

  2. Vector wind gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1984-01-01

    The development of a vector wind gust model through statistical analysis is described. Wind perturbation statistics which include location, altitude, season, and wavelength range are used in the synthesis of detailed wing profiles. These profiles provide the basis for the establishment of improved discrete gust design criteria guidelines for ascending launch vehicles.

  3. Vector wind profile gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.; Smith, O. E.

    1981-01-01

    The development of a vector wind gust model that is suitable for orbital flight test operations and trade studies was studied. Verification of the hypothesis that gust component variables are gamma distributed, gust modulus is approximately Weibull distributed, and zonal and meridional gust components are bivariate gamma distributed is emphasized. A method of testing for bivariate gamma distributed variables, and two distributions for gust modulus are described. The results of extensive hypothesis testing of one of the distributions are presented, and the validity of the gamma distribution for representation of gust component variables is established.

  4. Vector wind profile gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1979-01-01

    Work towards establishing a vector wind profile gust model for the Space Transportation System flight operations and trade studies is reported. To date, all the statistical and computational techniques required were established and partially implemented. An analysis of wind profile gust at Cape Kennedy within the theoretical framework is presented. The variability of theoretical and observed gust magnitude with filter type, altitude, and season is described. Various examples are presented which illustrate agreement between theoretical and observed gust percentiles. The preliminary analysis of the gust data indicates a strong variability with altitude, season, and wavelength regime. An extension of the analyses to include conditional distributions of gust magnitude given gust length, distributions of gust modulus, and phase differences between gust components has begun.

  5. Vector wind profile gust model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1981-01-01

    To enable development of a vector wind gust model suitable for orbital flight test operations and trade studies, hypotheses concerning the distributions of gust component variables were verified. Methods for verification of hypotheses that observed gust variables, including gust component magnitude, gust length, u range, and L range, are gamma distributed and presented. Observed gust modulus has been drawn from a bivariate gamma distribution that can be approximated with a Weibull distribution. Zonal and meridional gust components are bivariate gamma distributed. An analytical method for testing for bivariate gamma distributed variables is presented. Two distributions for gust modulus are described and the results of extensive hypothesis testing of one of the distributions are presented. The validity of the gamma distribution for representation of gust component variables is established.

  6. Microwave scatterometer measurements of oceanic wind vector

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, W. L.; Schroeder, L. C.; Wentz, F. J.

    1981-01-01

    Results from Seasat-A scatterometer (SASS) remote sensing of oceanic wind vectors are reviewed, together with the theory of radar backscattering. The SASS was designed to measure the surface wind stress and neutral stability wind vector at 19.5 m altitude. Requirements included windspeeds from 4-24 m/sec to within 2 m/sec or 10%, a 1000 km swath, directions from 0-360 deg to within 20 deg, a 50 km resolution cell, and cross-track and along-track spacing between resolution cells of 100 km. The method was based on Bragg scattering of microwaves from cm-length capillary ocean waves. The strength of the backscatter is proportional to the capillary wave amplitude, which is in equilibrium with the ocean surface wind speed. The measurement grouping, least-squares estimator, and dB deviation model function table for the SASS geophysical algorithm are discussed. Comparisons of SASS, GOASEX, and ground truth wind data are made, and a 0.92 correlation between SASS and ground truth data is determined from regression analysis.

  7. SSM/I and ECMWF Wind Vector Comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wentz, Frank J.; Ashcroft, Peter D.

    1996-01-01

    Wentz was the first to convincingly show that satellite microwave radiometers have the potential to measure the oceanic wind vector. The most compelling evidence for this conclusion was the monthly wind vector maps derived solely from a statistical analysis of Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) observations. In a qualitative sense, these maps clearly showed the general circulation over the world's oceans. In this report we take a closer look at the SSM/I monthly wind vector maps and compare them to European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) wind fields. This investigation leads both to an empirical comparison of SSM/I calculated wind vectors with ECMWF wind vectors, and to an examination of possible reasons that the SSM/I calculated wind vector direction would be inherently more reliable at some locations than others.

  8. Wind Streak Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2004-01-01

    2 September 2004 This pair of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images shows changes in dark wind streak patterns that occurred between 5 April 1999 (image M00-00534) and 17 August 2004 (image R20-00901). Unlike the spaghetti-like streak patterns made by dust devils, these streaks all begin on their upwind ends as tapered forms that fan outward in the downwind direction, and they all indicate winds that blew from the same direction. In both cases, winds blew from the southeast (lower right) toward the northwest (upper left). These streaks and the small pedestal craters found among them occur in the Memnonia region of Mars near 5.9oS, 162.2oW. The 400 meter scale bar is about 437 yards long. Sunlight illuminates each scene from the upper left.

  9. User's Guide for Monthly Vector Wind Profile Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1999-01-01

    The background, theoretical concepts, and methodology for construction of vector wind profiles based on a statistical model are presented. The derived monthly vector wind profiles are to be applied by the launch vehicle design community for establishing realistic estimates of critical vehicle design parameter dispersions related to wind profile dispersions. During initial studies a number of months are used to establish the model profiles that produce the largest monthly dispersions of ascent vehicle aerodynamic load indicators. The largest monthly dispersions for wind, which occur during the winter high-wind months, are used for establishing the design reference dispersions for the aerodynamic load indicators. This document includes a description of the computational process for the vector wind model including specification of input data, parameter settings, and output data formats. Sample output data listings are provided to aid the user in the verification of test output.

  10. Rapid Temporal Changes of Boundary Layer Winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merceret, Francis J.

    2005-01-01

    The statistical distribution of the magnitude of the vector wind change over 0.25, 0.5, 1 and 2-h periods based on data from November 1999 through August 2001 is presented. The distributions of the 2-h u and v component wind changes are also presented for comparison. The wind changes at altitudes from 500 to 3000 m were measured using the Eastern Range network of five 915 MHz Doppler radar wind profilers. Quality controlled profiles were produced every 15 minutes for up to sixty gates, each representing 101 m in altitude over the range from 130 m to 6089 m. Five levels, each constituting three consecutive gates, were selected for analysis because of their significance to aerodynamic loads during the Space Shuttle ascent roll maneuver. The distribution of the magnitude of the vector wind change is found to be lognormal consistent with earlier work in the mid-troposphere. The parameters of the distribution vary with time lag, season and altitude. The component wind changes are symmetrically distributed with near-zero means, but the kurtosis coefficient is larger than that of a Gaussian distribution.

  11. Wind Streak Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    MGS MOC Release No. MOC2-358, 12 May 2003

    Mars is a dynamic planet. This pair of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) pictures, taken 2 Mars years apart, show changes in dark streak patterns caused by wind movement of dust. The top picture was taken in July 1999, the bottom one in March 2003. The pair of images are in Tharsis near 9.5oS, 128.5oW. Sunlight illuminates both from the upper left.

  12. The winds of change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Wind-based power generation has been growing steadily in the United States and around the world, and this growth will continue—and accelerate—in the future, as the following background statistics demonstrate. The U.S. wind industry installed 8,358 megawatts (MW) of new wind generating capacity in 20...

  13. An improved hurricane wind vector retrieval algorithm using SeaWinds scatterometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laupattarakasem, Peth

    Over the last three decades, microwave remote sensing has played a significant role in ocean surface wind measurement, and several scatterometer missions have flown in space since early 1990's. Although they have been extremely successful for measuring ocean surface winds with high accuracy for the vast majority of marine weather conditions, unfortunately, the conventional scatterometer cannot measure extreme winds condition such as hurricane. The SeaWinds scatterometer, onboard the QuikSCAT satellite is NASA's only operating scatterometer at present. Like its predecessors, it measures global ocean vector winds; however, for a number of reasons, the quality of the measurements in hurricanes are significantly degraded. The most pressing issues are associated with the presence of precipitation and Ku-band saturation effects, especially in extreme wind speed regime such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons). Under this dissertation, an improved hurricane ocean vector wind retrieval approach, named as Q-Winds, was developed using existing SeaWinds scatterometer data. This unique data processing algorithm uses combined SeaWinds active and passive measurements to extend the use of SeaWinds for tropical cyclones up to approximately 50 m/s (Hurricane Category-3). Results show that Q-Winds wind speeds are consistently superior to the standard SeaWinds Project Level 2B wind speeds for hurricane wind speed measurement, and also Q-Winds provides more reliable rain flagging algorithm for quality assurance purposes. By comparing to H*Wind, Q-Winds achieves 9% of error, while L2B-12.5km exhibits wind speed saturation at 30 m/s with error of 31% for high wind speed (>40 m/s).

  14. Rapid Temporal Changes of Midtropospheric Winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merceret, Francis J.

    1997-01-01

    The statistical distribution of the magnitude of the vector wind change over 0.25-, 1-, 2-. and 4-h periods based on data from October 1995 through March 1996 over central Florida is presented. The wind changes at altitudes from 6 to 17 km were measured using the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler radar wind profiler. Quality controlled profiles were produced every 5 min for 112 gates, each representing 150 m in altitude. Gates 28 through 100 were selected for analysis because of their significance to ascending space launch vehicles. The distribution was found to be lognormal. The parameters of the lognormal distribution depend systematically on the time interval. This dependence is consistent with the behavior of structure functions in the f(exp 5/3) spectral regime. There is a small difference between the 1995 data and the 1996 data, which may represent a weak seasonal effect.

  15. Building a Climate Data Record for Ocean Vector Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricciardulli, L.; Meissner, T.; Wentz, F. J.

    2014-12-01

    Scatterometers such as QuikSCAT and ASCAT are in principle well suited for providing climate-quality wind observations. They are very stable sensors, usually unaffected by satellite drifts or other issues that might affect the temporal stability of the wind time series. However, combining data from multiple scatterometers with the accuracy required for climate studies is a major challenge. Here we will review the challenges and progress made towards producing high-quality and consistent time series of ocean vector winds from past, current, and future scatterometer missions. We will describe the development of consistent Geophysical Model Functions (GMF) at the Ku-, C, and L-band frequencies, and the efforts in understanding and removing sources of bias among different scatterometer winds (i.e., atmospheric/ocean surface effects, rain impact, imperfect calibration of the GMF, etc..) . An additional and important source of inter-satellite bias at a regional level is due to the diurnal variability in the ocean surface winds. We will present an analysis aimed at estimating the amplitude and phase of wind diurnal variability. We will show how global time series of ocean winds from different scatterometer missions do overlap within the accuracy required for climate studies, when processed in a consistent manner and with proper quality control,.

  16. Vector wind, horizontal divergence, wind stress and wind stress curl from SEASAT-SASS at one degree resolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierson, W. J., Jr.; Sylvester, W. B.; Salfi, R. E.

    1984-01-01

    Conventional data obtained in 1983 are contrasted with SEASAT-A scatterometer and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data to show how observations at a single station can be extended to an area of about 150,000 square km by means of remotely sensed data obtained in nine minutes. Superobservations at a one degree resolution for the vector winds were estimated along with their standard deviations. From these superobservations, the horizontal divergence, vector wind stress, and the curl of the wind stress can be found. Weather forecasting theory is discussed and meteorological charts of the North Pacific Ocean are presented. Synoptic meteorology as a technique is examined.

  17. Designing Scatterometer Constellations for Sampling Global Ocean Vector Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, E.; Chelton, D. B.; Stoffelen, A.; Schlax, M.

    2012-12-01

    The rapid temporal variations in ocean vector winds make it impossible to obtain synoptic global snapshots of winds and wind stress from a single spaceborne sensor. Even when multiple sensors are present, the peculiarities of the resulting space-time sampling pattern require that significant smoothing in space and time be performed to limit spatially and temporally inhomogeneous error characteristics in the merged data. Based on the collected common experience in its member states, the World Meteorological Organization collects requirements for spatio-temporal sampling in meteorological applications such as global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction, nowcasting, and climate. An additional concern, when constructing data sets from sun-synchronous missions, is that undersampling of diurnal and sub-diurnal variability may result in aliasing of the climate data record. Indeed, examination of climatologies constructed from different satellite missions, such as NASA's QuikSCAT and EUMETSAT's ASCAT scatterometers, show systematic differences that cannot be explained as being due solely to unresolved incoherent diurnal and sub-diurnal variability. Some of these differences, especially in the tropics, are probably explained by systematic diurnal and sub-diurnal variations. Other differences may be due to the difficulty of cross-calibrating sun-synchronous satellites with different local times. Forthcoming satellite missions may offer the possibility of overcoming or mitigating the space-time sampling and calibration challenges using multiple coordinated platforms. In the next decade, there is an expectation that ocean vector winds will be measured simultaneously by multiple satellites from the European community, India, China, and the United States. The coordination and suitable merging of the data from these satellites to produce a climate data record will be a challenge to the ocean vector winds community. In this presentation, we use climatologies constructed from multiple missions (NASA's QuikSCAT and SeaWinds on ADEOS-2, EUMETSAT's ASCAT, ISRO's OSCAT) that have overlapped over significant times to assess the impact of platform sampling and calibration characteristics on constructing consistent climatologies. We also extend the statistical simulation studies by Schlax et al. (2001) to include the effects of diurnal and sub-diurnal variations. Using these methods, we will examine a variety of potential platform configurations for future planned missions and assess their potential for producing a consistent ocean vector wind climate data record.

  18. Study of wind change for the development of loads reduction techniques for the space shuttle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1987-01-01

    Wind change statistics are analyzed for Vandenberg AFB, California (VAFB) and Kennedy Space Center, Florida (KSC). Means and standard deviations of wind component change and vector wind change modulus within 3-9 and 9-16 km altitude bands are tabulated. The contribution to 3.5 hr wind component change by wind perturbations in various wavelength bands is evaluated. Probability distributions of maximum 3.5 hr wind change in an altitude band are presented and a model for wind change at a specified altitude is tested with data derived from six data bases from VAFB and Santa Monica, California.

  19. Triboelectric nanogenerator for harvesting wind energy and as self-powered wind vector sensor system.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ya; Zhu, Guang; Zhang, Hulin; Chen, Jun; Zhong, Xiandai; Lin, Zong-Hong; Su, Yuanjie; Bai, Peng; Wen, Xiaonan; Wang, Zhong Lin

    2013-10-22

    We report a triboelectric nanogenerator (TENG) that plays dual roles as a sustainable power source by harvesting wind energy and as a self-powered wind vector sensor system for wind speed and direction detection. By utilizing the wind-induced resonance vibration of a fluorinated ethylene-propylene film between two aluminum foils, the integrated TENGs with dimensions of 2.5 cm × 2.5 cm × 22 cm deliver an output voltage up to 100 V, an output current of 1.6 μA, and a corresponding output power of 0.16 mW under an external load of 100 MΩ, which can be used to directly light up tens of commercial light-emitting diodes. Furthermore, a self-powered wind vector sensor system has been developed based on the rationally designed TENGs, which is capable of detecting the wind direction and speed with a sensitivity of 0.09 μA/(m/s). This work greatly expands the applicability of TENGs as power sources for self-sustained electronics and also self-powered sensor systems for ambient wind detection. PMID:24044652

  20. Wind velocities on venus: vector determination by radio interferometry.

    PubMed

    Counselman, C C; Gourevitch, S A; King, R W; Pettengill, G H; Prinn, R G; Shapiro, I I; Miller, R B; Smith, J R; Ramos, R; Liebrecht, P

    1979-02-23

    To determine the wind directions and speeds on Venus, as each Pioneer probe fell to the surface we tracked its motion in three dimensions using a combination of Doppler and long-baseline radio interferometric methods. Preliminary results from this tracking, coupled with results from test observations of other spacecraft, enable us to estimate the uncertainties of our eventual determinations of the velocity vectors of the probes with respect to Venus. For altitudes below about 65 kilometers and with time-averaging over 100-second intervals, all three components of the velocity should have errors of the order of 0.3 meter per second or less. PMID:17833005

  1. The winds of change.

    PubMed

    Roski, R A

    1995-01-01

    Redirecting physician incentives, providing universal coverage, improving access to meaningful information, and providing innovation are the key components to solving this crisis. Those changes must focus on true competition and innovative ideas, which we must provide. In the past, the innovation in health care has come from physicians, and physicians must provide it in the future. Now is the time for action. Once again, we can use the words of Theodor Geisel to inspire us: So ... Be your name Buxbaum or Bixby or Bray or Mordaci Ali Van Allen O'Shea, You're off to great places! Today is your day! Your mountain is waiting! So ... get on your way! No one could put it more clearly or succinctly than Dr. Seuss. Take his words to heart. The challenge lies before us, and the opportunities are endless. Just as Sidney Garfield revolutionized health care delivery more than 60 years ago, now is the time to introduce revolutionary changes of our own. Do not sit idly by while our health care system further deteriorates. Allow yourselves to be the innovative leaders that will give this country a new and better system of health care delivery. So remember, your mountain is waiting! Get on your way! PMID:8846586

  2. Ocean Surface Vector Wind: Research Challenges and Operational Opportunities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Halpern, David

    2012-01-01

    The atmosphere and ocean are joined together over seventy percent of Earth, with ocean surface vector wind (OSVW) stress one of the linkages. Satellite OSVW measurements provide estimates of wind divergence at the bottom of the atmosphere and wind stress curl at the top of the ocean; both variables are critical for weather and climate applications. As is common with satellite measurements, a multitude of OSVW data products exist for each currently operating satellite instrument. In 2012 the Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) launched an initiative to coordinate production of OSVW data products to maximize the impact and benefit of existing and future OSVW measurements in atmospheric and oceanic applications. This paper describes meteorological and oceanographic requirements for OSVW data products; provides an inventory of unique data products to illustrate that the challenge is not the production of individual data products, but the generation of harmonized datasets for analysis and synthesis of the ensemble of data products; and outlines a vision for JCOMM, in partnership with other international groups, to assemble an international network to share ideas, data, tools, strategies, and deliverables to improve utilization of satellite OSVW data products for research and operational applications.

  3. Two-component vector wind fields by scanning aerosol lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayor, S. D.; Derian, P.; Hamada, M.; Mauzey, C. F.

    2014-12-01

    Observations of two or more wind components that resolve turbulent perturbations over large areas remain a challenge in the atmospheric boundary layer community. One successful approach to multi-component flow measurement in the engineering community is particle image velocimetry (PIV). This presentation will report on recent progress in the development and validation of two motion estimation algorithms that can be applied to aerosol backscatter imagery to provide two-component horizontal wind fields. The algorithms being developed and tested are a traditional cross-correlation method (i.e., Schols & Eloranta, JGR, 1992) and a new wavelet-based optical flow method (Dérian et al., NMTMA, 2013). These algorithms have been applied to imagery from the Raman-shifted Eye-safe Aerosol Lidar (REAL) collected in Dixon, California, in 2007 (as part of CHATS) and in Chico, California in 2013. The resulting 2-component winds were compared against the same from sonic anemometers and a Doppler lidar. Our results include new insights on the performance of the cross-correaltion algorithm and new experiences with wavelet-based optical flow. Animations of turbulent flow in the atmospheric surface layer over approximately 10-square km areas with 15 s frame update rates will be presented. (Vectors may be spaced as closely as every 10 m, but the spatial resolution is larger and dynamic and related to the availability of small scale aerosol features in the imagery.) In addition to flow visualizations, time-series and space-series comparisons of the wind components with those from sonic anemometer and Doppler lidar data will be presented.

  4. Two-component horizontal wind vectors from the Raman-shifted Eye-safe Aerosol Lidar (REAL)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayor, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Two-component horizontal wind vectors were calculated by applying a cross-correlation algorithm to square image blocks extracted from consecutive pairs of elastic backscatter lidar scans. The resulting vector components were compared with corresponding horizontal wind components from tower-mounted sonic anemometers located at the center of the image blocks at a range of 1.61 km. 180245 pairs of vectors derived from 75 days of field data collected between 19 March and 11 June 2007 were used in the analysis. Examples of time series comparisons from 4-h periods during light, strong, and changing wind conditions will be presented. The correlation between lidar-derived components and sonic anemometer components changes as a function of the mean backscatter signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the block area, maxima of the cross-correlation function (CCF), observed wind speed, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). The correlation between the lidar-derived velocity components and sonic anemometer wind components tends to be highest during light wind conditions with low TKE. Although the correlation of high frequency perturbations tends to be poor during windy and turbulent conditions, the technique is capable of sensing the mean flow. Examples of 2-dimensional, 2-component, flow fields will be presented. The NSF/NCAR REAL at California State University Chico. Streamlined flow field from 2-component vectors derived from 2 scans of the REAL and application of the cross-correlation technique. The area of the image spans 4 km by 4 km.

  5. Fault diagnosis of direct-drive wind turbine based on support vector machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, X. L.; Jiang, D. X.; Li, S. H.; Chen, J.

    2011-07-01

    A fault diagnosis method of direct-drive wind turbine based on support vector machine (SVM) and feature selection is presented. The time-domain feature parameters of main shaft vibration signal in the horizontal and vertical directions are considered in the method. Firstly, in laboratory scale five experiments of direct-drive wind turbine with normal condition, wind wheel mass imbalance fault, wind wheel aerodynamic imbalance fault, yaw fault and blade airfoil change fault are carried out. The features of five experiments are analyzed. Secondly, the sensitive time-domain feature parameters in the horizontal and vertical directions of vibration signal in the five conditions are selected and used as feature samples. By training, the mapping relation between feature parameters and fault types are established in SVM model. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is verified through experimental data. The results show that the proposed method is effective in identifying the fault of wind turbine. It has good classification ability and robustness to diagnose the fault of direct-drive wind turbine.

  6. Single-Vector Calibration of Wind-Tunnel Force Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, P. A.; DeLoach, R.

    2003-01-01

    An improved method of calibrating a wind-tunnel force balance involves the use of a unique load application system integrated with formal experimental design methodology. The Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System (SVS) overcomes the productivity and accuracy limitations of prior calibration methods. A force balance is a complex structural spring element instrumented with strain gauges for measuring three orthogonal components of aerodynamic force (normal, axial, and side force) and three orthogonal components of aerodynamic torque (rolling, pitching, and yawing moments). Force balances remain as the state-of-the-art instrument that provide these measurements on a scale model of an aircraft during wind tunnel testing. Ideally, each electrical channel of the balance would respond only to its respective component of load, and it would have no response to other components of load. This is not entirely possible even though balance designs are optimized to minimize these undesirable interaction effects. Ultimately, a calibration experiment is performed to obtain the necessary data to generate a mathematical model and determine the force measurement accuracy. In order to set the independent variables of applied load for the calibration 24 NASA Tech Briefs, October 2003 experiment, a high-precision mechanical system is required. Manual deadweight systems have been in use at Langley Research Center (LaRC) since the 1940s. These simple methodologies produce high confidence results, but the process is mechanically complex and labor-intensive, requiring three to four weeks to complete. Over the past decade, automated balance calibration systems have been developed. In general, these systems were designed to automate the tedious manual calibration process resulting in an even more complex system which deteriorates load application quality. The current calibration approach relies on a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) methodology, where each independent variable is incremented individually throughout its full-scale range, while all other variables are held at a constant magnitude. This OFAT approach has been widely accepted because of its inherent simplicity and intuitive appeal to the balance engineer. LaRC has been conducting research in a "modern design of experiments" (MDOE) approach to force balance calibration. Formal experimental design techniques provide an integrated view to the entire calibration process covering all three major aspects of an experiment; the design of the experiment, the execution of the experiment, and the statistical analyses of the data. In order to overcome the weaknesses in the available mechanical systems and to apply formal experimental techniques, a new mechanical system was required. The SVS enables the complete calibration of a six-component force balance with a series of single force vectors.

  7. Two-Look Polarimetric (2LP) Microwave Radiometers for Ocean Vector Wind Retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wentz, F. J.; Hilburn, K. A.; Meissner, T.; Brown, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    This talk discusses the future utilization of two-look polarimetric (2LP) microwave radiometers for measuring the ocean surface wind vector. Potentially, these 2LP satellite radiometers offer two advantages over conventional scatterometers: unambiguous wind vector retrievals and low-cost. One concept for a 2LP radiometer is being developed by JPL and is called the Compact Ocean Wind Vector Radiometer (COWVR). A space demonstration of COWVR is planned for 2016 timeframe. To explore the potential of 2LP radiometers, we use the 11 years of WindSat observations as a testbed. We only use that portion of the WindSat swath that has both fore and aft observations. WindSat provides fully polarimetric observations (all four Stokes parameters) at 11, 19, and 37 GHz. This represents 12 independent channels for each of the two azimuth directions. A wind vector retrieval algorithm is developed to fully utilize this wide assortment of information. Since this analysis is based on actual observations, it provides a realistic picture of what to expect from future 2LP radiometers. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the combination of WindSat's fore and aft observations has been fully utilized for wind vector retrievals. In our talk we compare the 2LP wind vector retrieval performance with that of single-look polarimetric radiometers (i.e., WindSat standard product) and scatterometers. We provide basic statistics from a triple collocation between winds from WindSat, QuikScat, and NDBC/PMEL ocean moored buoys. The statistics include the standard deviation of the first ranked ambiguity direction, skill rate, and number of ambiguities. All available data from the common period of operation between WindSat and QuikScat (2003-2009) are used. We characterize the wind direction accuracy as a function of wind speed, and show how 2LP retrievals are able to extend the wind vector accuracy to lower wind speeds than previously considered possible for radiometers.

  8. Vector control of wind turbine on the basis of the fuzzy selective neural net*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, E. A.; Kovalev, I. V.; Engel, N. E.

    2016-04-01

    An article describes vector control of wind turbine based on fuzzy selective neural net. Based on the wind turbine system’s state, the fuzzy selective neural net tracks an maximum power point under random perturbations. Numerical simulations are accomplished to clarify the applicability and advantages of the proposed vector wind turbine’s control on the basis of the fuzzy selective neuronet. The simulation results show that the proposed intelligent control of wind turbine achieves real-time control speed and competitive performance, as compared to a classical control model with PID controllers based on traditional maximum torque control strategy.

  9. A Novel Empirical Mode Decomposition With Support Vector Regression for Wind Speed Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Ren, Ye; Suganthan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam; Srikanth, Narasimalu

    2014-09-11

    Wind energy is a clean and an abundant renewable energy source. Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for power dispatch planning, unit commitment decision, maintenance scheduling, and regulation. However, wind is intermittent and wind speed is difficult to predict. This brief proposes a novel wind speed forecasting method by integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector regression (SVR) methods. The EMD is used to decompose the wind speed time series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue. Subsequently, a vector combining one historical data from each IMF and the residue is generated to train the SVR. The proposed EMD-SVR model is evaluated with a wind speed data set. The proposed EMD-SVR model outperforms several recently reported methods with respect to accuracy or computational complexity. PMID:25222957

  10. Compensation of vector and volume averaging bias in lidar wind speed measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clive, P. J. M.

    2008-05-01

    A number of vector and volume averaging considerations arise in relation to remote sensing, and in particular, Lidar. 1) Remote sensing devices obtain vector averages. These values are often compared to the scalar averages associated with cup anemometry. The magnitude of a vector average is less than or equal to the scalar average obtained over the same period. The use of Lidars in wind power applications has entailed the estimation of scalar averages by vector averages and vice versa. The relationship between the two kinds of average must therefore be understood. It is found that the ratio of the averages depends upon wind direction variability according to a Bessel function of the standard deviation of the wind direction during the averaging interval. 2) The finite probe length of remote sensing devices also incurs a volume averaging bias when wind shear is non-linear. The sensitivity of the devices to signals from a range of heights produces volume averages which will be representative of wind speeds at heights within that range. One can distinguish between the effective or apparent height the measured wind speeds represent as a result of volume averaging bias, and the configuration height at which the device has been set to measure wind speeds. If the wind shear is described by a logarithmic wind profile the apparent height is found to depend mainly on simple geometrical arguments concerning configuration height and probe length and is largely independent of the degree of wind shear. 3) The restriction of the locus of points at which radial velocity measurements are made to the circumference of a horizontally oriented disc at a particular height is seen to introduce ambiguity into results when dealing with wind vector fields which are not irrotational.

  11. Compensating for volume and vector averaging biases in lidar wind speed measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clive, Peter J. M.

    2008-10-01

    A number of vector and volume averaging considerations arise in relation to remote sensing, and in particular, Lidar. 1) Remote sensing devices obtain vector averages. These values are often compared to the scalar averages associated with cup anemometry. The magnitude of a vector average is less than or equal to the scalar average obtained over the same period. The use of Lidars in wind power applications has entailed the estimation of scalar averages by vector averages and vice versa. The relationship between the two kinds of average must therefore be understood. It is found that the ratio of the averages depends upon wind direction variability according to a Bessel function of the standard deviation of the wind direction during the averaging interval. 2) The finite probe length of remote sensing devices also incurs a volume averaging bias when wind shear is non-linear. The sensitivity of the devices to signals from a range of heights produces volume averages which will be representative of wind speeds at heights within that range. One can distinguish between the effective or apparent height the measured wind speeds represent as a result of volume averaging bias, and the configuration height at which the device has been set to measure wind speeds. If the wind shear is described by a logarithmic wind profile the apparent height is found to depend mainly on simple geometrical arguments concerning configuration height and probe length and is largely independent of the degree of wind shear. 3) The restriction of the locus of points at which radial velocity measurements are made to the circumference of a horizontally oriented disc at a particular height is seen to introduce ambiguity into results when dealing with wind vector fields which are not irrotational.

  12. The Dependence of Ocean Surface Emissivity on Wind Vector as Measured with TMR

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tran, N.; Vandemark, D.; Ruf, C.; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Global TMR brightness temperature observations at 18, 21, and 37 GHz have been colocated with near-simultaneous SeaWinds wind vector data as well as with a monthly SST climatological product. The combined data allow us to study the dependence of ocean surface emissivity, at each frequency, upon both wind speed and direction. Results show a clear two-branch wind speed dependence; weak and linear below 6 m/s with an abrupt increase in sensitivity above that point. Our analysis also shows that the nadir-view ocean surface emissivity depends on the angle between the wind direction and TMR's antenna polarization orientation.

  13. Climate Change: Potential Affect on Pesticide Application for Vector Control

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Global climate change has and will in the future contribute to the global burden of vector-borne disease by affecting the spatial and tempral distribution of disease. These changes in disease distributions are a direct result of altering the ecology of immature and adult habitats of insect vectors....

  14. Changes in Ocean Wind Retrieval Performance During the WindSat Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bettenhausen, M. H.; Gaiser, P. W.; Adams, I. S.; Truesdale, D.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous improvements have been made to WindSat ground data processing software and retrieval algorithms since the initial evaluations of WindSat capabilities were published in 2006. These improvements include higher resolution retrievals, improved wind vector ambiguity selection, improved instrument characterization, better brightness temperature calibration and improved high wind speed retrievals. We briefly describe some of these improvements and provide statistical comparisons of the current WindSat ocean vector wind products to the older versions of the WindSat products. We also present comparisons for individual wind fields including examples of gap wind events and cyclonic storms. Limitations of the WindSat products and the underlying causes such as resolution and rain effects will be discussed.

  15. An operational satellite scatterometer for wind vector measurements over the ocean

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grantham, W. L.; Bracalente, E. M.; Jones, W. L.; Schrader, J. H.; Schroeder, L. C.; Mitchell, J. L.

    1975-01-01

    Performance requirements and design characteristics of a microwave scatterometer wind sensor for measuring surface winds over the oceans on a global basis are described. Scatterometer specifications are developed from user requirements of wind vector measurement range and accuracy, swath width, resolution cell size and measurement grid spacing. A detailed analysis is performed for a baseline fan-beam scatterometer design, and its performance capabilities for meeting the SeaSat-A user requirements. Various modes of operation are discussed which will allow the resolution of questions concerning the effects of sea state on the scatterometer wind sensing ability and to verify design boundaries of the instrument.

  16. Wind changes above warm Agulhas Current eddies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouault, M.; Verley, P.; Backeberg, B.

    2016-04-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer E onboard the Aqua satellite and altimetry-derived sea level anomalies are used south of the Agulhas Current to identify warm-core mesoscale eddies presenting a distinct SST perturbation greater than to 1 °C to the surrounding ocean. The analysis of twice daily instantaneous charts of equivalent stability-neutral wind speed estimates from the SeaWinds scatterometer onboard the QuikScat satellite collocated with SST for six identified eddies shows stronger wind speed above the warm eddies than the surrounding water in all wind directions, if averaged over the lifespan of the eddies, as was found in previous studies. However, only half of the cases showed higher wind speeds above the eddies at the instantaneous scale; 20 % of cases had incomplete data due to partial global coverage by the scatterometer for one path. For cases where the wind is stronger above warm eddies, there is no relationship between the increase in surface wind speed and the SST perturbation, but we do find a linear relationship between the decrease in wind speed from the centre to the border of the eddy downstream and the SST perturbation. SST perturbations range from 1 to 6 °C for a mean eddy SST of 15.9 °C and mean SST perturbation of 2.65 °C. The diameter of the eddies range from 100 to 250 km. Mean background wind speed is about 12 m s-1 (mostly southwesterly to northwesterly) and ranging mainly from 4 to 16 m s-1. The mean wind increase is about 15 %, which corresponds to 1.8 m s-1. A wind speed increase of 4 to 7 m s-1 above warm eddies is not uncommon. Cases where the wind did not increase above the eddies or did not decrease downstream had higher wind speeds and occurred during a cold front associated with intense cyclonic low-pressure systems, suggesting certain synoptic conditions need to be met to allow for the development of wind speed anomalies over warm-core ocean eddies. In many cases, change in wind speed above eddies was masked by a large-scale synoptic wind speed deceleration/acceleration affecting parts of the eddies.

  17. Plants and ventifacts delineate late Holocene wind vectors in the Coachella Valley, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffiths, P.G.; Webb, R.H.; Fisher, M.; Muth, A.

    2009-01-01

    Strong westerly winds that emanate from San Gorgonio Pass, the lowest point between Palm Springs and Los Angeles, California, dominate aeolian transport in the Coachella Valley of the western Sonoran Desert. These winds deposit sand in coppice dunes that are critical habitat for several species, including the state and federally listed threatened species Uma inornata, a lizard. Although wind directions are generally defined in this valley, the wind field has complex interactions with local topography and becomes more variable with distance from the pass. Local, dominant wind directions are preserved by growth patterns of Larrea tridentata (creosote bush), a shrub characteristic of the hot North American deserts, and ventifacts. Exceptionally long-lived, Larrea has the potential to preserve wind direction over centuries to millennia, shaped by the abrasive pruning of windward branches and the persistent training of leeward branches. Wind direction preserved in Larrea individuals and clones was mapped at 192 locations. Compared with wind data from three weather stations, Larrea vectors effectively reflect annual prevailing winds. Ventifacts measured at 24 locations record winds 10° more westerly than Larrea and appear to reflect the direction of the most erosive winds. Based on detailed mapping of local wind directions as preserved in Larrea, only the northern half of the Mission-Morongo Creek floodplain is likely to supply sand to protected U. inornata habitat in the Willow Hole ecological reserve.

  18. Plants and ventifacts delineate late Holocene wind vectors in the Coachella Valley, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, Peter G.; Webb, Robert H.; Fisher, Mark; Muth, Allan

    Strong westerly winds that emanate from San Gorgonio Pass, the lowest point between Palm Springs and Los Angeles, California, dominate aeolian transport in the Coachella Valley of the western Sonoran Desert. These winds deposit sand in coppice dunes that are critical habitat for several species, including the state and federally listed threatened species Uma inornata, a lizard. Although wind directions are generally defined in this valley, the wind field has complex interactions with local topography and becomes more variable with distance from the pass. Local, dominant wind directions are preserved by growth patterns of Larrea tridentata (creosote bush), a shrub characteristic of the hot North American deserts, and ventifacts. Exceptionally long-lived, Larrea has the potential to preserve wind direction over centuries to millennia, shaped by the abrasive pruning of windward branches and the persistent training of leeward branches. Wind direction preserved in Larrea individuals and clones was mapped at 192 locations. Compared with wind data from three weather stations, Larrea vectors effectively reflect annual prevailing winds. Ventifacts measured at 24 locations record winds 10° more westerly than Larrea and appear to reflect the direction of the most erosive winds. Based on detailed mapping of local wind directions as preserved in Larrea, only the northern half of the Mission-Morongo Creek floodplain is likely to supply sand to protected U. inornata habitat in the Willow Hole ecological reserve.

  19. Ocean wind vector mapping from a high altitude aircraft platform

    SciTech Connect

    Hood, R.E.; Spencer, R.W.; Lobl, E.

    1996-10-01

    The Conically-Scanning Two Look Airborne Radiometer (C-STAR) is currently being constructed as a satellite simulator to investigate the feasibility of measuring global ocean vectors with passive microwave instrumentation. The C-STAR will be a total power, four-channel radiometer package remotely sensing 37.1 GHz signatures from a high altitude aircraft platform. The instrument package is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) for flight on a NASA ER-2 aircraft during 1996. 6 refs., 2 tabs.

  20. Multidecadal Consistent Ocean Vector Winds: from QuikSCAT to RapidScat and Beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, E.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    There are multiple indications that wind circulation characteristics may have been changing over the last decades. However, obtaining a globally consistent high-accuracy assessment of these changes from spaceborne remote sensing data has proved elusive in many cases, even though ocean vector wind data has been collected from space starting in the 1990's. The reason that a consistent assessment of these changes is still a work in progress is due to multiple factors. Firstly, many of the scatterometer instruments were designed to meet accuracies satisfactory for weather prediction, not for the smaller magnitude changes associated with climate change. Nevertheless, these instruments have proven at least self-consistent over long periods and suggest that climate signals may be retrievable from their data. Secondly, the instruments have used different microwave frequency bands, and uncertainties still remain regarding the consistency of the measurement physics across frequency bands. Thirdly, the data have been processed differently with different, and potentially inconsistent, model functions. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, all of these satellites have been in sun-synchronous orbits, with observations being made at different local times. These differences in observation time leads to aliasing of diurnal and semi-diurnal observations into the climate data record. In the first part of this talk, I review our current state of knowledge of the intercalibration of the three major scatterometers of the past decades: NASA's QuikSCAT, EUMETSAT's ASCAT (A & B), and ISRO's OSCAT. In the second part, I describe the design of the NASA ISS-RapidScat cross-calibration mission. This mission uses the non-sun-synchronous characteristics of the International Space Station (ISS) orbit to provide coincident data with scatterometers in the constellation every revolution. It is expected that it will be able to provide cross-calibration cross section and wind data for QuikSCAT, ASCAT, and the forthcoming ISRO ScatSat mission. RapidScat is expected to launch in September, 2014, and the final part of this talk will present the first results of the mission on orbit.

  1. Effectiveness of Changing Wind Turbine Cut-in Speed to Reduce Bat Fatalities at Wind Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Huso, Manuela M. P.; Hayes, John P.

    2009-04-01

    This report details an experiment on the effectiveness of changing wind turbine cut-in speed on reducing bat fatality from wind turbines at the Casselman Wind Project in Somerset County, Pennsylvania.

  2. A Vector Control for Grid-connected Wind Power Generation with Doubly Fed Induction Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kai, Takaaki; Tanaka, Yuji; Kaneda, Hirotoshi; Kobayashi, Daichi; Tanaka, Akio

    Recently, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and synchronous generator are mostly applied for wind power generation due to high efficiently for wind energy capture. An inverter system is required to control wind turbine speed and power factor in those generators. The inverter rating of the synchronous generator equals to generator rating. However, DFIG has the advantage that the inverter rating is about 25% to the generator rating. The paper describes a vector control of DFIG inter-connected to power line. The performance of proposed vector control is examined using power system simulation software PSCAD/EMTDC for the DFIG inter-connected to 6.6kv distribution line. The results show good dynamic responses and high accuracy to the stator active power control and the stator reactive power control.

  3. Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Sutherst, Robert W

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

  4. Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Sutherst, Robert W.

    2004-01-01

    Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

  5. Polarimetric Passive Remote Sensing of Wind-generated Sea Surfaces and Ocean Wind Vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yueh, S. H.; Kwok, R.; Li, F. K.; Nghiem, S. V.; Kwork, R.; Li, F. K.; Nghiem, S. V.; Wilson, W. J.; Kong, J. A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the theory of polarimetric passive remote sensing of wind-generated sea surfaces. A two-scale polarimetric scattering and emission model of sea surfaces is developed to interpret existing active and passive remote sensing microwave signatures of sea surfaces, and to investigate the potential application of polarimetic radiometry to ocean surface winds.

  6. Surface Wind Vector and Rain Rate Observation Capability of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Timothy; Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; El-Nimri, Salem; Hood, Robbie; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Ruf, Christopher; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2009-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is the next-generation Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), and it will offer the capability of simultaneous wide-swath observations of both extreme ocean surface wind vector and strong precipitation from either aircraft (including UAS) or satellite platforms. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce valid wind observations under hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered by precipitation. The SFMR i s a proven aircraft remote sensing system for simultaneously observing extreme ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. The first version of the instrument will be a single polarization system for wind speed and rain rate, with a dual-polarization system to follow for wind vector capability. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by NASA s Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard (laboratory) version of the instrument has been completed and successfully tested in a test chamber. Development of the aircraft instrument is underway, with flight testing planned for the fall of 2009. Preliminary Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on surface wind analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor. New off-nadir data collected in 2008 by SFMR that affirms the ability of this measurement technique to obtain wind speed data at non-zero incidence angle will be presented, as well as data from the brassboard instrument chamber tests.

  7. [Vector transmitted diseases and climate changes in Europe].

    PubMed

    Rossati, Antonella; Bargiacchi, Olivia; Kroumova, Vesselina; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi

    2014-09-01

    The increase in temperatures recorded since the mid-nineteenth century is unprecedented in the history of mankind. The consequences of climate changes are numerous and can affect human health through direct (extreme events, natural disasters) or indirect (alteration of the ecosystem) mechanisms. Climate changes have repercussions on ecosystems, agriculture, social conditions, migration, conflicts and the transmission mode of infectious diseases. Vector-borne diseases are infections transmitted by the bite of infected arthropods such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomines, sand flies and flies. Epidemiological cornerstones of vector-borne diseases are: the ecology and behaviour of the host, the ecology and behaviour of the vector, and the population's degree of immunity. Mosquito vectors related to human diseases mainly belong to the genus Culex, Aedes and Mansonia. Climate changes in Europe have increased the spread of new vectors, such as Aedes albopictus, and in some situations have made it possible to sustain the autochthonous transmission of some diseases (outbreak of Chukungunya virus in northern Italy in 2007, cases of dengue in the South of France and in Croatia). Despite the eradication of malaria from Europe, anopheline carriers are still present, and they may allow the transmission of the disease if the climatic conditions favour the development of the vectors and their contacts with plasmodium carriers. The tick Ixodes ricinus is a vector whose expansion has been documented both in latitude and in altitude in relation to the temperature increase; at the same time the related main viral and bacterial infections have increased. In northern Italy and Germany, the appearance of Leishmaniasis has been associated to climatic conditions that favour the development of the vector Phlebotomus papatasi and the maturation of the parasite within the vector, although the increase of cases of visceral leishmaniasis is also related to host immune factors, particularly immunodepression caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Despite the importance of global warming in facilitating the transmission of certain infectious diseases, due consideration must be taken of the role played by other variables, such as the increase in international travel, migration and trade, with the risk of importing parasites and vectors with the goods. In addition, the control of certain infections was possible in the past through improvements in socio-economic conditions of affected populations. However, the reduction in resources allocated to health care has recently led to the re-emergence of diseases that were considered eradicated. PMID:25269959

  8. Common themes in changing vector-borne disease scenarios.

    PubMed

    Molyneux, David H

    2003-01-01

    The impact of climate change on disease patterns is controversial. However, global burden of disease studies suggest that infectious diseases will contribute a proportionately smaller burden of disease over the next 2 decades as non-communicable diseases emerge as public health problems. However, infectious diseases contribute proportionately more in the poorest quintile of the population. Notwithstanding the different views of the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections this paper reviews the conditions which drive the changing epidemiology of these infections and suggests that such change is linked by common themes including interactions of generalist vectors and reservoir hosts at interfaces with humans, reduced biodiversity associated with anthropogenic environmental changes, increases in Plasmodium falciparum: P. vivax ratios and well-described land use changes such as hydrological, urbanization, agricultural, mining and forest-associated impacts (extractive activities, road building, deforestation and migration) which are seen on a global scale. PMID:14584362

  9. Multispectral change vector analysis for monitoring coastal marine environments

    SciTech Connect

    Michalek, J.L.; Wagner, T.W.; Luczkovich, J.J.; Stoffle, R.W. Michigan Environmental Research Inst., Ann Arbor )

    1993-03-01

    This paper investigates the utility of multispectral Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data for documenting changes to a Caribbean coastal zone using the change vector analysis processing technique. The area of study was the coastal region near the village of Buen Hombre on the north coast of the Dominican Republic. The change vector analysis techniques uses any number of spectral bands from multidate satellite data to produce change images that yield information about both the magnitude and direction of differences in pixel values (which are proportional to radiance). The final products were created by appending color-coded change pixels onto a black-and-white base map. The advantages and limitations of the technique for coastal inventories are discussed. 9 refs.

  10. Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ginsberg, H.S.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

  11. A vector auto-regressive model for onshore and offshore wind synthesis incorporating meteorological model information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, D.; Bell, K. R. W.; McMillan, D.; Infield, D.

    2014-05-01

    The growth of wind power production in the electricity portfolio is striving to meet ambitious targets set, for example by the EU, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. Huge investments are now being made in new offshore wind farms around UK coastal waters that will have a major impact on the GB electrical supply. Representations of the UK wind field in syntheses which capture the inherent structure and correlations between different locations including offshore sites are required. Here, Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models are presented and extended in a novel way to incorporate offshore time series from a pan-European meteorological model called COSMO, with onshore wind speeds from the MIDAS dataset provided by the British Atmospheric Data Centre. Forecasting ability onshore is shown to be improved with the inclusion of the offshore sites with improvements of up to 25% in RMS error at 6 h ahead. In addition, the VAR model is used to synthesise time series of wind at each offshore site, which are then used to estimate wind farm capacity factors at the sites in question. These are then compared with estimates of capacity factors derived from the work of Hawkins et al. (2011). A good degree of agreement is established indicating that this synthesis tool should be useful in power system impact studies.

  12. The Alignment of the Mean Wind and Stress Vectors in the Unstable Surface Layer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernardes, M.; Dias, N. L.

    2010-01-01

    A significant non-alignment between the mean horizontal wind vector and the stress vector was observed for turbulence measurements both above the water surface of a large lake, and over a land surface (soybean crop). Possible causes for this discrepancy such as flow distortion, averaging times and the procedure used for extracting the turbulent fluctuations (low-pass filtering and filter widths etc.), were dismissed after a detailed analysis. Minimum averaging times always less than 30 min were established by calculating ogives, and error bounds for the turbulent stresses were derived with three different approaches, based on integral time scales (first-crossing and lag-window estimates) and on a bootstrap technique. It was found that the mean absolute value of the angle between the mean wind and stress vectors is highly related to atmospheric stability, with the non-alignment increasing distinctively with increasing instability. Given a coordinate rotation that aligns the mean wind with the x direction, this behaviour can be explained by the growth of the relative error of the u- w component with instability. As a result, under more unstable conditions the u- w and the v- w components become of the same order of magnitude, and the local stress vector gives the impression of being non-aligned with the mean wind vector. The relative error of the v- w component is large enough to make it undistinguishable from zero throughout the range of stabilities. Therefore, the standard assumptions of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory hold: it is fair to assume that the v- w stress component is actually zero, and that the non-alignment is a purely statistical effect. An analysis of the dimensionless budgets of the u- w and the v- w components confirms this interpretation, with both shear and buoyant production of u- w decreasing with increasing instability. In the v- w budget, shear production is zero by definition, while buoyancy displays very low-intensity fluctuations around zero. As local free convection is approached, the turbulence becomes effectively axisymetrical, and a practical limit seems to exist beyond which it is not possible to measure the u- w component accurately.

  13. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Githeko, A. K.; Lindsay, S. W.; Confalonieri, U. E.; Patz, J. A.

    2000-01-01

    Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change. By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0-3.5 degrees C, increasing the likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases these lie in the range 14-18 degrees C at the lower end and about 35-40 degrees C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that do not. Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival. PMID:11019462

  14. Wave-vector dependence of magnetic-turbulence spectra in the solar wind.

    PubMed

    Narita, Y; Glassmeier, K-H; Sahraoui, F; Goldstein, M L

    2010-04-30

    Using four-point measurements of the Cluster spacecraft, the energy distribution was determined for magnetic field fluctuations in the solar wind directly in the three-dimensional wave-vector domain in the range |k|vector anisotropy is estimated with respect to directions parallel and perpendicular to the mean magnetic field, and the result suggests the dominance of quasi-two-dimensional turbulence toward smaller spatial scales. PMID:20482101

  15. Evaluation and Validation of Operational RapidScat Ocean Surface Vector Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Paul; Jelenak, Zorana; Soisuvarn, Seubson; Said, Faozi; Sienkiewicz, Joseph; Brennan, Michael

    2015-04-01

    NASA launched RapidScat to the International Space Station (ISS) on September 21, 2014 on a two-year mission to support global monitoring of ocean winds for improved weather forecasting and climate studies. The JPL-developed space-based scatterometer is conically scanning and operates at ku-band (13.4 GHz) similar to QuikSCAT. The ISS-RapidScat's measurement swath is approximately 900 kilometers and covers the majority of the ocean between 51.6 degrees north and south latitude (approximately from north of Vancouver, Canada, to the southern tip of Patagonia) in 48 hours. RapidScat data are currently being posted at a spacing of 25 kilometers, but a version to be released in the near future will improve the postings to 12.5 kilometers. RapidScat ocean surface wind vector data are being provided in near real-time to NOAA, and other operational users such as the U.S. Navy, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). The quality of the RapidScat OSVW data are assessed by collocating the data in space and time with "truth" data. Typically "truth" data will include, but are not limited to, the NWS global forecast model analysis (GDAS) fields, buoys, ASCAT, WindSat, AMSR-2, and aircraft measurements during hurricane and winter storm experiment flights. The standard statistical analysis used for satellite microwave wind sensors will be utilized to characterize the RapidScat wind vector retrievals. The global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are a convenient source of "truth" data because they are available 4 times/day globally which results in the accumulation of a large number of collocations over a relatively short amount of time. The NWP model fields are not "truth" in the same way an actual observation would be, however, as long as there are no systematic errors in the NWP model output the collocations will converge in the mean for winds between approximately 3-20 m/s. The NWP models typically do not properly resolve the very low and high wind speeds in part due to limitations of the spatial scales they can account for. Buoy measurements, aircraft-based measurements and other satellite retrievals can be more directly compared on a point-by-point basis. The RapidScat OSVW validation results will be presented and discussed. Utilization examples of these data in support of NOAA's marine weather forecasting and warning mission will also be presented and discussed.

  16. Wind driven changes in the ocean carbon sink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swart, N. C.; Fyfe, J. C.; Saenko, O. A.; Eby, M.

    2014-06-01

    We estimate the historical ocean carbon sink over 1871 to 2010 using an ocean biogeochemical model driven with observed wind forcing. We focus on the influence of wind and mesoscale eddy changes on the net surface CO2 flux, which are most significant after 1950. The observed wind changes act to reduce the annual ocean carbon sink by 0.009 to 0.023 Pg yr-1 decade-1 over 1950 to 2010, and are consistent with previous studies covering only the latter part of the 20th century. The response of the ocean circulation and the carbon cycle to wind changes is sensitive to the parameterization of mesoscale eddies in our coarse resolution simulations. With a variable eddy transfer coefficient, eddy activity in the Southern Ocean increases in response to intensifying historical winds, partially compensating for direct wind-driven circulation changes. Thus with a variable eddy transfer coefficient the response to wind changes is about 2.5 times smaller than when using a constant coefficient. Finally, we show by comparing six reanalyses over 1980 to 2010 that estimated historical wind trends differ significantly. Through simulations forced with these reanalysis winds we show that the influence of historical wind changes on ocean carbon uptake is highly uncertain and depends on the choice of surface wind forcing product.

  17. The effect of the arbitrary level assignment of satellite cloud motion wind vectors on wind analyses in the pre-thunderstorm environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peslen, C. A.; Koch, S. E.; Uccellini, L. W.

    1985-01-01

    The impact of satellite-derived cloud motion vectors on SESAME rawinsonde wind fields was studied in two separate cases. The effect of wind and moisture gradients on the arbitrary assignment of the satellite data is assessed to coordinate surfaces in a severe storm environment marked by strong vertical wind shear. Objective analyses of SESAME rawinsonde winds and combined winds are produced and differences between these two analyzed fields are used to make an assessment of coordinate level choice. It is shown that the standard method of arbitrarily assigning wind vectors to a low level coordinate surface yields systematic differences between the rawinsonde and combined wind analyses. Arbitrary assignment of cloud motions to the 0.9 sigma surface produces smaller differences than assignment to the 825 mb pressure surface. Systematic differences occur near moisture discontinuities and in regions of horizontal and vertical wind shears. The differences between the combined and SESAME wind fields are made smallest by vertically interpolating cloud motions to either a pressure or sigma surface.

  18. 3D visualization of solar wind ion data from the Chang'E-1 exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Tian; Sun, Yankui; Tang, Zesheng

    2011-10-01

    Chang'E-1 (abbreviation CE-1), China's first Moon-orbiting spacecraft launched in 2007, carried equipment called the Solar Wind Ion Detector (abbreviation SWID), which sent back tens of gigabytes of solar wind ion differential number flux data. These data are essential for furthering our understanding of the cislunar space environment. However, to fully comprehend and analyze these data presents considerable difficulties, not only because of their huge size (57 GB), but also because of their complexity. Therefore, a new 3D visualization method is developed to give a more intuitive representation than traditional 1D and 2D visualizations, and in particular to offer a better indication of the direction of the incident ion differential number flux and the relative spatial position of CE-1 with respect to the Sun, the Earth, and the Moon. First, a coordinate system named Selenocentric Solar Ecliptic (SSE) which is more suitable for our goal is chosen, and solar wind ion differential number flux vectors in SSE are calculated from Geocentric Solar Ecliptic System (GSE) and Moon Center Coordinate (MCC) coordinates of the spacecraft, and then the ion differential number flux distribution in SSE is visualized in 3D space. This visualization method is integrated into an interactive visualization analysis software tool named vtSWIDs, developed in MATLAB, which enables researchers to browse through numerous records and manipulate the visualization results in real time. The tool also provides some useful statistical analysis functions, and can be easily expanded.

  19. Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

    PubMed

    Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D H; McMichael, A J; Woodward, A; Cox, J S

    2001-07-29

    The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change. PMID:11516383

  20. Ground-based remote sensing of wind vector and visibility: latest results from guideline development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boesenberg, Jens; Danzeisen, Hans H.; Engelbart, Dirk; Fritzsche, Klaus; Klein, Volker; Muenkel, Christoph; Trickl, Thomas; Werner, Christian; Woppowa, Ljuba

    2001-12-01

    The guideline series VDI 3786 'Environmental meteorology; Meteorological measurements' is organized into several parts. The present guideline VDI 3786 Part 14 describes the determination of the three-dimensional wind vector using Doppler LIDAR ('LIght Detection and Ranging' or 'Light Identificaiton, Detection and Ranging'). The guideline refers to guideline VDI 3786 Part 2 with regard to the definition of the measurement variable wind and goes back to the guideline VDI 3786 Part 1 in considering the averaging time. Use is also made of the guideline VDI 3786 Part 8. Safety problems are not treated; reference may be made here to relevant Standards [VBG 93, DIN EN 60825-1]. Wind profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer yield a very important contribution also to the investigation of atmospheric exchange processes. The wind field in the atmospheric boundary layer is highly variable in spatial and temporal scales. For a few applications a more frequeent wind sensing is necessary, i.e. (1) on airports located in low level jet areas, (2) near chemical plants to get information of the transport of toxic gases from leakages, (3) for metrology in general to improve the weather forecast, (4) for environment protection purposes like dispersion studies. The following statements are valid for visibility measurements [visual range LIDAR (VDI 3786 Part 15)]: (1) Lidar can provide the same information of the visibility as conventional sensors, but in addition lidar will provide range resolved measurements. (2) It is possible to shrink a lidar down to the size of binoculars. (3) It is possible to measure local visibility with an eye- safe (class 1) lidar. (4) Layers can be detected up to 250 m distance in approximately 2 s even with a small size instrument.

  1. Combining TOPEX and SeaWinds Data to Refine Models for Ocean Surface Emissivity: Wind Vector Signatures at 18, 21 and 37 GHz

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandemark, D.; Tran, N.; Ruf, C.; Vandemark, Douglas (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    TOPEX Microwave Radiometer (TMR) brightness temperature observations at 18, 21, and 37 GHz have been collocated with near-simultaneous SeaWinds wind vector data as well as with a monthly SST climatological product. The combined data set allows us to study the dependence of ocean surface emissivity (at each frequency) upon both wind speed. Results show clear two-branch wind speed dependence; weak and linear below 6 m/s with an abrupt increase in sensitivity above that point. The analysis also shows that the zenith-directed ocean surface emissivity is polarization dependent above wind speeds of 5-6 m/s with an azimuthal variation related to the wind direction. This last result accords with recent polarimetric radiometer observations collected from aircraft. Implications of these observations to water vapor retrieval algorithms, nadir-viewing polarimetry, and ocean emission modeling will be discussed.

  2. Assessment of NOAA Processed OceanSat-2 Scatterometer Ocean Surface Vector Wind Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, P.; Jelenak, Z.; Soisuvarn, S.

    2011-12-01

    The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched the Oceansat-2 satellite on 23 September 2009. Oceansat-2 carries a radar scatterometer instrument (OSCAT) capable of measuring ocean surface vector winds (OSVW) and an ocean color monitor (OCM), which will retrieve sea spectral reflectance. Oceansat-2 is ISRO's second in a series of satellites dedicated to ocean research. It will provide continuity to the services and applications of the Oceansat-1 OCM data along with additional data from a Ku-band pencil beam scatterometer. Oceansat-2 is a three-axis, body stabilized spacecraft placed into a near circular sun-synchronous orbit, at an altitude of 720 kilometers (km), with an equatorial crossing time of around 1200 hours. ISRO, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) share the common goal of optimizing the quality and maximizing the utility of the Oceansat-2 data for the benefit of future global and regional scientific and operational applications. NOAA, NASA and EUMETSAT have been collaboratively working with ISRO on the assessment and analysis of OSCAT data to help facilitate continuation of QuikSCAT's decade-long Ku-band scatterometer data record. NOAA's interests are focused on the utilization of OSCAT data to support operational weather forecasting and warning in the marine environment. OSCAT has the potential to significantly mitigate the loss of NASA's QuikSCAT, which has negatively impacted NOAA's marine forecasting and warning services. Since March 2011 NOAA has been receiving near real time OSCAT measurements via EumetSat. NOAA has developed its own OSCAT wind processor. This processor produces ocean surface vector winds with resolution of 25km. Performance of NOAA OSCAT product will and its availability to larger user community will be presented and discussed.

  3. Using support vector machines for anomalous change detonation

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Steinwart, Ingo; Llamocca, Daniel

    2010-01-01

    We cast anomalous change detection as a binary classification problem, and use a support vector machine (SVM) to build a detector that does not depend on assumptions about the underlying data distribution. To speed up the computation, our SVM is implemented, in part, on a graphical processing unit. Results on real and simulated anomalous changes are used to compare performance to algorithms which effectively assume a Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we investigate the use of support vector machines (SVMs) with radial basis kernels for finding anomalous changes. Compared to typical applications of SVMs, we are operating in a regime of very low false alarm rate. This means that even for relatively large training sets, the data are quite meager in the regime of operational interest. This drives us to use larger training sets, which in turn places more of a computational burden on the SVM. We initially considered three different approaches to to address the need to work in the very low false alarm rate regime. The first is a standard SVM which is trained at one threshold (where more reliable estimates of false alarm rates are possible) and then re-thresholded for the low false alarm rate regime. The second uses the same thresholding approach, but employs a so-called least squares SVM; here a quadratic (instead of a hinge-based) loss function is employed, and for this model, there are good theoretical arguments in favor of adjusting the threshold in a straightforward manner. The third approach employs a weighted support vector machine, where the weights for the two types of errors (false alarm and missed detection) are automatically adjusted to achieve the desired false alarm rate. We have found in previous experiments (not shown here) that the first two types can in some cases work well, while in other cases they do not. This renders both approaches unreliable for automated change detection. By contrast, the third approach reliably produces good results, but at the cost of larger computational requirements caused by the need to estimate very small false alarm rates. To address these computational requirements, we employ a recently developed in-house solver for SVMs that is significantly faster than freely available standard solvers. But these computational issues are secondary to the larger question: do kernelized solutions provide better performance, in terms of detection rates and false alarm rates, than more traditional methods for change detection that effectively assume Gaussian data distributions? To this end, we will compare ROC curves obtained from the SVM with those from chronochrome, covariance equalization, and hyperbolic anomalous change detection.

  4. Vegetation change detection for urban areas based on extended change vector analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Hui; Jia, Yonghong

    2006-10-01

    This study sought to develop a modified change vector analysis(CVA) using normalized multi-temporal data to detect urban vegetation change. Because of complex change in urban areas, modified CVA application based on NDVI and mask techniques can minify the effect of non-vegetation changes and improve upon efficiency to a great extent. Moreover, drawing from methods in Polar plots, the extended CVA technique measures absolute angular changes and total magnitude of perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) and two of Tasseled Cap indices (greenness and wetness). Polar plots summarized change vectors to quantify and visualize both magnitude and direction of change, and magnitude is applied to determine change pixels through threshold segmentation while direction is applied as pixel's feature to classifying change pixels through supervised classification. Then this application is performed with Landsat ETM+ imageries of Wuhan in 2002 and 2005, and assessed by error matrix, which finds that it could detect change pixels 95.10% correct, and could classify change pixels 91.96% correct in seven change classes through performing supervised classification with direction angles. The technique demonstrates the ability of change vectors in multiple biophysical dimensions to vegetation change detection, and the application can be trended as an efficient alternative to urban vegetation change detection and classification.

  5. Wind-driven changes in the ocean carbon sink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swart, N. C.; Fyfe, J. C.; Saenko, O. A.; Eby, M.

    2014-11-01

    We estimate changes in the historical ocean carbon sink and their uncertainty using an ocean biogeochemical model driven with wind forcing from six different reanalyses and using two different eddy parameterization schemes. First, we quantify wind-induced changes over the extended period from 1871 to 2010 using the 20th Century Reanalysis winds. Consistent with previous shorter-term studies, we find that the wind changes act to reduce the ocean carbon sink, but the wind-induced trends are subject to large uncertainties. One major source of uncertainty is the parameterization of mesoscale eddies in our coarse resolution simulations. Trends in the Southern Ocean residual meridional overturning circulation and the globally integrated surface carbon flux over 1950 to 2010 are about 2.5 times smaller when using a variable eddy transfer coefficient than when using a constant coefficient in this parameterization. A second major source of uncertainty arises from disagreement on historical wind trends. By comparing six reanalyses over 1980 to 2010, we show that there are statistically significant differences in estimated historical wind trends, which vary in both sign and magnitude amongst the products. Through simulations forced with these reanalysis winds, we show that the influence of historical wind changes on ocean carbon uptake is highly uncertain, and the resulting trends depend on the choice of surface wind product.

  6. Wind energy: Developing energy, wealth, and change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopkins, Matt

    Wind energy has emerged as one of the fastest growing energy sources in the United States over the course of the last decade. It is the renewable energy type most readily defining clean economy leadership. An uncertain policy context, public conflicts over the impacts of turbine installations, and unsorted connections to a national green development strategy raise questions about the continued viability of wind power in the U.S. This thesis attempts to document and question some of the issues raised by wind energy expansion in the U.S. generally, but in Maine in particular, in order to explain how environmental, social, and economic benefits accrue to places hosting wind projects. The available information combined with a targeted inquiry produce insights into how the state of Maine can improve its wind development policies and outcomes.

  7. Calibration Performance and Capabilities of the New Compact Ocean Wind Vector Radiometer System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, S. T.; Focardi, P.; Kitiyakara, A.; Maiwald, F.; Montes, O.; Padmanabhan, S.; Redick, R.; Russell, D.; Wincentsen, J.

    2014-12-01

    The paper describes performance and capabilities of a new satellite conically imaging microwave radiometer system, the Compact Ocean Wind Vector Radiometer (COWVR), being built by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for an Air Force demonstration mission. COWVR is an 18-34 GHz fully polarimetric radiometer designed to provide measurements of ocean vector winds with an accuracy that meets or exceeds that provided by WindSat, but using a simpler design which has both calibration and cost advantages. Heritage conical radiometer systems, such as WindSat, AMSR, GMI or SSMI(S), all have a similar overall architecture and have exhibited significant intra-channel and inter-sensor calibration biases, due in part to the relative independence of the radiometers between the different polarizations and frequencies in the system. The COWVR system uses a broadband compact hybrid combining architecture and Electronic Polarization Basis Rotation to minimize the number of free calibration parameters between polarization and frequencies, as well as providing a definitive calibration reference from the modulation of the mean polarized signal from the Earth. This second calibration advantage arises because the sensor modulates the incoming polarized signal at the input antenna aperture in a known way based only on the instrument geometry which forces relative calibration consistency between the polarimetric channels of the sensor and provides a gain and offset calibration independent of a model or other ancillary data source, which has typically been a weakness in the calibration and inter-calibration of heritage microwave sensors. This paper will give a description of the COWVR instrument and an overview of the technology demonstration mission. We will discuss the overall calibration approach for this system, its advantages over existing systems and how many of the calibration issues that impact existing satellite radiometers can be eliminated in future operational systems based on this design. COWVR is currently in flight fabrication at JPL, having successfully passed its Critical Design Review in June 2014, and will be flight ready in September 2015 with launch no earlier than 2016.

  8. Effects of Changing Atmospheric Conditions on Wind Turbine Performance (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Clifton, A.

    2012-12-01

    Multi-megawatt, utility-scale wind turbines operate in turbulent and dynamic winds that impact turbine performance in ways that are gradually becoming better understood. This poster presents a study made using a turbulent flow field simulator (TurbSim) and a Turbine aeroelastic simulator (FAST) of the response of a generic 1.5 MW wind turbine to changing inflow. The turbine power output is found to be most sensitive to wind speed and turbulence intensity, but the relationship depends on the wind speed with respect to the turbine's rated wind speed. Shear is found to be poorly correlated to power. A machine learning method called 'regression trees' is used to create a simple model of turbine performance that could be used as part of the wind resource assessment process. This study has used simple flow fields and should be extended to more complex flows, and validated with field observations.

  9. A targeted change-detection procedure by combining change vector analysis and post-classification approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Su; Chen, Dongmei; Yu, Jie

    2016-04-01

    In remote sensing, conventional supervised change-detection methods usually require effective training data for multiple change types. This paper introduces a more flexible and efficient procedure that seeks to identify only the changes that users are interested in, here after referred to as "targeted change detection". Based on a one-class classifier "Support Vector Domain Description (SVDD)", a novel algorithm named "Three-layer SVDD Fusion (TLSF)" is developed specially for targeted change detection. The proposed algorithm combines one-class classification generated from change vector maps, as well as before- and after-change images in order to get a more reliable detecting result. In addition, this paper introduces a detailed workflow for implementing this algorithm. This workflow has been applied to two case studies with different practical monitoring objectives: urban expansion and forest fire assessment. The experiment results of these two case studies show that the overall accuracy of our proposed algorithm is superior (Kappa statistics are 86.3% and 87.8% for Case 1 and 2, respectively), compared to applying SVDD to change vector analysis and post-classification comparison.

  10. Solar Wind Change Exchange from the Magnetosheath

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Snowden, Steve

    2008-01-01

    We report the results of a long (approximately 100 ks) XMM-Newton observation designed to observe solar wind charge exchange emission (SWCX) from Earth's magnetosheath. By luck, the observation took place during a period of minimal solar wind flux so the SWCX emission was also minimal. Never-the-less, there is a significant if not stunning correlation between the observed O VIII count rate and our model for magnetosheath emission. We also report on the observed O VII and O VII emission.

  11. Genomic Changes of Chagas Disease Vector, South America

    PubMed Central

    Dujardin, Jean Pierre; Nicolini, Paula; Caraccio, María Noel; Rose, Virginia; Tellez, Tatiana; Bermúdez, Hernán; Bargues, María Dolores; Mas-Coma, Santiago; O’Connor, José Enrique; Pérez, Ruben

    2004-01-01

    We analyzed the main karyologic changes that have occurred during the dispersion of Triatoma infestans, the main vector of Chagas disease. We identified two allopatric groups, named Andean and non-Andean. The Andean specimens present C-heterochromatic blocks in most of their 22 chromosomes, whereas non-Andean specimens have only 4–7 autosomes with C-banding. These heterochromatin differences are the likely cause of a striking DNA content variation (approximately 30%) between Andean and non-Andean insects. Our study, together with previous historical and genetic data, suggests that T. infestans was originally a sylvatic species, with large quantities of DNA and heterochromatin, inhabiting the Andean region of Bolivia. However, the spread of domestic T. infestans throughout the non-Andean regions only involved insects with an important reduction of heterochromatin and DNA amounts. We propose that heterochromatin and DNA variation mainly reflected adaptive genomic changes that contribute to the ability of T. infestans to survive, reproduce, and disperse in different environments. PMID:15109410

  12. Methods of reducing wind power changes from large turbine arrays

    SciTech Connect

    Schlueter, R.; Dorsey, J.; Lotfalian, M.; Park, G.; Shayanfar, M.

    1983-06-01

    This paper discusses methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented to establish the factors concerning the wind turbine model and siting configuration that contribute to these variations. Detailed simulation results indicate more precisely how these factors can be exploited to minimize the WECS generation changes observed. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  13. World Wind Tools Reveal Environmental Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2012-01-01

    Originally developed under NASA's Learning Technologies program as a tool to engage and inspire students, World Wind software was released under the NASA Open Source Agreement license. Honolulu, Hawaii based Intelesense Technologies is one of the companies currently making use of the technology for environmental, public health, and other monitoring applications for nonprofit organizations and Government agencies. The company saved about $1 million in development costs by using the NASA software.

  14. Southern Ocean isopycnal mixing and ventilation changes driven by winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abernathey, Ryan; Ferreira, David

    2015-12-01

    Observed and predicted changes in the strength of the westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean have motivated a number of studies on the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to wind perturbations and led to the hypothesis of the "eddy compensation" regime, wherein the MOC becomes insensitive to wind changes. In addition to the MOC, tracer transport also depends on mixing processes. Here we show, in a high-resolution process model, that isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies is strongly dependent on the wind strength. This dependence can be explained by mixing length theory and is driven by increases in eddy kinetic energy; the mixing length does not change strongly in our simulation. Simulation of a passive ventilation tracer (analogous to CFCs or anthropogenic CO2) demonstrates that variations in tracer uptake across experiments are dominated by changes in isopycnal mixing, rather than changes in the MOC. We argue that to properly understand tracer uptake under different wind-forcing scenarios, the sensitivity of isopycnal mixing to winds must be accounted for.

  15. Retrieval and Evaluation of Wind Vectors and Advective Surface Velocities from Synthetic Aperture Radar and Infrared Radiometer Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvajal, Gisela; Eriksson, Leif E. B.

    Analysis of ocean surface dynamics has been proven to be of vital importance in many areas (e.g. shipping, fishing). Two important parameters to describe the ocean dynamics are the wind velocity (speed and direction) and advective surface velocities (ocean current velocity). These parameters are currently provided operationally by forecast models, surface sensors (e.g. buoys, coastal radar) and satellite sensors. However, coverage limitations, low resolution and limited temporal availability impose a need for implementation and evaluation of new data sources and techniques for estimation of these parameters. In this paper we implement and evaluate known techniques for determination of wind and ocean current velocity from satellite data. Wind is determined from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data by applying two algo-rithms. First, the Local Gradient method is implemented to extract wind direction from the SAR data, and then the CMOD-5 Geophysical Model Function of the backscatter is inverted to obtain the wind speed as a function of the wind direction and the incidence angle. Current propagation is estimated by analyzing the Sea Surface Temperature propagation in two consec-utive infrared images of the same area from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. The evaluation shows a good agreement between estimated wind vectors from SAR and scat-terometer data. Comparison with merged ocean current estimates is addressed. The methods will be implemented in the maritime security service provided by the SECTRONIC project funded by the EU 7th framework program.

  16. Noise model based ν-support vector regression with its application to short-term wind speed forecasting.

    PubMed

    Hu, Qinghua; Zhang, Shiguang; Xie, Zongxia; Mi, Jusheng; Wan, Jie

    2014-09-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) techniques are aimed at discovering a linear or nonlinear structure hidden in sample data. Most existing regression techniques take the assumption that the error distribution is Gaussian. However, it was observed that the noise in some real-world applications, such as wind power forecasting and direction of the arrival estimation problem, does not satisfy Gaussian distribution, but a beta distribution, Laplacian distribution, or other models. In these cases the current regression techniques are not optimal. According to the Bayesian approach, we derive a general loss function and develop a technique of the uniform model of ν-support vector regression for the general noise model (N-SVR). The Augmented Lagrange Multiplier method is introduced to solve N-SVR. Numerical experiments on artificial data sets, UCI data and short-term wind speed prediction are conducted. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique. PMID:24874183

  17. Measuring the turbulent wind vector with a weight-shift Microlight Aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metzger, S.; Junkermann, W.; Neidl, F.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Schmid, H. P.; Beyrich, F.; Zheng, X. H.; Foken, T.

    2009-09-01

    The Small Environmental Research Aircraft (SERA) D-MIFUs initial fields of application are aerosol / cloud and radiation transfer research. Therefore a comparatively slow (True Airspeed, TAS ~25 ms-1) but highly mobile microlight aircraft was envisaged. To broaden the application area of D-MIFU we explore whether the microlight can also be used for Eddy Covariance (EC) flux measurement. To obtain useful data sets for airborne EC a reliable turbulent Wind Vector (WV) measurement is a key requirement. Here we present methodology and results to calibrate and express performance and uncertainty of microlight based WV measurement. Specific attention is given to the influence of the flexible-wing weight-shift geometry on the WV measurement. For the WV measurement we equipped D-MIFU with a 70 cm long noseboom supporting a classical 5 hole probe and a fast 50 μm diameter thermocouple. An Inertial Navigation System (INS) supplies high accuracy ground speeds (Ï?=0.05 ms-1) and attitude angles (Ï?=0.03° , 0.1° respectively for heading). Data are stored with 10 Hz yielding a horizontal resolution of 2.5 m. The INS also allows to analyze aircraft dynamics such as 3d rotation rates and acceleration of the nacelle body. Further estimates for 3d acceleration of airfoil and noseboom are obtained at 100 Hz. The noseboom calibration coefficients under laboratory conditions were obtained by wind tunnel- and thermal bath measurements. To transfer these characteristics for in-flight conditions we carried out a series of flights with D-MIFU above the Boundary Layer under calm conditions. On basis of level flights at different power settings we were able to determine dynamic pressure-, sideslip- and attack angle offsets. Additionally forced maneuvers, such as e.g. phugoids, have been performed. By means of multivariate analysis these data are used to assess and minimize the impact of microlight nacelle and airfoil rapidly varying motions (RVM) on the WV components. In the final step of the calibration we employ a Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian optimization. Recording the posterior parameter distribution this optimizing procedure allows an integrated assessment of WV uncertainty as induced by the instrumental setup. To test whether the airborne measured WV is in agreement with ground based measurements we additionally performed flights at tall tower sites equipped with ultrasonic anemometers as well as a Sodar facility. The impact of the in-flight correction on the WV components is found to be in the order of 1 ms-1 in the horizontal and 0.1 ms-1 in the vertical. From racetrack comparisons we obtain a maximum final wind error of 0.9 ms-1 for horizontal and 0.2 ms-1 for vertical WV components before RVM correction. At that the vertical WV measurement is found to be independent from TAS. Ground truth comparisons show mean horizontal and vertical wind deviations of 0.2 ms-1, 0.1 ms-1 respectively for 10 minute averages. Deviations are independent of aircraft heading, sideslip angle respectively. From these findings we conclude that a thoroughly setup microlight aircraft is capable of measuring the WV components with an accuracy sufficient for EC applications.

  18. Mercury Space Capsule- Winds of Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1959-01-01

    A Langley technician checks the Mercury full-scale capsule model prior to testing in the 30- by 60-Foot Tunnel in 1959 at NASA Langley Research Center, Much of the research and development of the Mercury program was conducted at Langley. Originally built in the early 1930s to test full-scale aircraft, the '30 by 60' tested many of the bombers and fighter planes used in World War II. Although it was retired in October 1995, the '30 by 60' is one of NASAs largest wind tunnels and is a National Historic Landmark. Many of the tests on the late 1980s and early 1990s were free-flight tests of dynamically scaled models in the test section. This technique allowed researchers to measure and assess flight characteristics as well as evaluate control options.

  19. Evaluation of turbulent magnetic energy spectra in the three-dimensional wave vector domain in the solar wind

    SciTech Connect

    Gary, S Peter; Narita, Y; Glassmeier, K H; Goldstein, M L; Safraoui, F; Treumann, R A

    2009-01-01

    Using four-point measurements of the CLUSTER spacecraft, the energy distribution of magnetic field fluctuations in the solar wind is determined directly in the three-dimensional wave vector domain in the range 3 x 10{sup -4} rad/km < k < 3 x 10{sup -3} rad/km. The analysis method takes account of a regular tetrahedron configuration of CLUSTER and the Doppler effect. The energy distribution in the flow rest frame is anisotropic, characterized by two distinct extended structures perpendicular to the mean magnetic field and furthermore perpendicular to the flow direction. The three-dimensional distribution is averaged around the direction of the mean magnetic field direction, and then is further reduced to one-dimensional distributions in the wave number domain parallel and perpendicular to the mean magnetic field. The one-dimensional energy spectra are characterized by the power law with the index -5/3 and furthermore very close energy density between parallel and perpendicular directions to the mean magnetic field at the same wave numbers. Though the distributions and the spectra are not covered in a wide range of wave vectors, our measurements suggest that the solar wind fluctuation is anisotropic in the three-dimensional wave vector space. It is, however, rather isotropic when reduced into the parallel and perpendicular wave vector geometries due to the second anisotropy imposed by the flow direction.

  20. The influence of virus-induced changes in plants on aphid vectors: insights from luteovirus pathosystems.

    PubMed

    Bosque-Pérez, Nilsa A; Eigenbrode, Sanford D

    2011-08-01

    Plant virus infection can alter the suitability of host plants for their aphid vectors. Most reports indicate that virus-infected plants are superior hosts for vectors compared to virus-free plants with respect to vector growth rates, fecundity and longevity. Some aphid vectors respond preferentially to virus-infected plants compared to virus-free ones, while others avoid infected plants that are inferior hosts. Thus, it appears vectors can exploit changes in host plant quality associated with viral infection. Enhanced vector performance and preference for virus-infected plants might also be advantageous for viruses by promoting their spread and possibly enhancing their fitness. Our research has focused on two of the most important luteoviruses that infect wheat (Barley yellow dwarf virus), or potato (Potato leafroll virus), and their respective aphid vectors, the bird-cherry oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi, and the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae. The work has demonstrated that virus infection of host plants enhances the life history of vectors. Additionally, it has shown that virus infection alters the concentration and relative composition of volatile organic compounds in host plants, that apterae of each vector species settle preferentially on virus-infected plants, and that such responses are mediated by volatile organic compounds. The findings also indicate that plants respond heterogeneously to viral infection and as a result different plant parts change in attractiveness to vectors during infection and vector responses to virus-infected plants are dynamic. Such dynamic responses could enhance or reduce the probability of virus acquisition by individual aphids searching among plants. Finally, our work indicates that compared to non-viruliferous aphids, viruliferous ones are less or not responsive to virus-induced host plant volatiles. Changes in vector responsiveness to plants after vectors acquire virus could impact virus epidemiology by influencing virus spread. The potential implications of these findings for virus ecology and epidemiology are discussed. PMID:21549769

  1. Climate change. Climate change and wind intensification in coastal upwelling ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Sydeman, W J; García-Reyes, M; Schoeman, D S; Rykaczewski, R R; Thompson, S A; Black, B A; Bograd, S J

    2014-07-01

    In 1990, Andrew Bakun proposed that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations would force intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in eastern boundary current systems that contribute substantial services to society. Because there is considerable disagreement about whether contemporary wind trends support Bakun's hypothesis, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature on upwelling-favorable wind intensification. The preponderance of published analyses suggests that winds have intensified in the California, Benguela, and Humboldt upwelling systems and weakened in the Iberian system over time scales ranging up to 60 years; wind change is equivocal in the Canary system. Stronger intensification signals are observed at higher latitudes, consistent with the warming pattern associated with climate change. Overall, reported changes in coastal winds, although subtle and spatially variable, support Bakun's hypothesis of upwelling intensification in eastern boundary current systems. PMID:24994651

  2. IABC 83/The Winds of Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Association of Business Communicators, San Francisco, CA.

    Drawn from a conference focusing on the changing nature of the communication function, the papers in this collection analyze and outline the professional and personal developmental techniques necessary to anticipate and capitalize upon those changes. Among the specific topics discussed in the 32 papers are the following: (1) the techniques and…

  3. Water Vapor Winds and Their Application to Climate Change Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lerner, Jeffrey A.

    2000-01-01

    The retrieval of satellite-derived winds and moisture from geostationary water vapor imagery has matured to the point where it may be applied to better understanding longer term climate changes that were previously not possible using conventional measurements or model analysis in data-sparse regions. In this paper, upper-tropospheric circulation features and moisture transport covering ENSO periods are presented and discussed. Precursors and other detectable interannual climate change signals are analyzed and compared to model diagnosed features. Estimates of winds and humidity over data-rich regions are used to show the robustness of the data and its value over regions that have previously eluded measurement.

  4. Host Life History Strategy, Species Diversity, and Habitat Influence Trypanosoma cruzi Vector Infection in Changing Landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Gottdenker, Nicole L.; Chaves, Luis Fernando; Calzada, José E.; Saldaña, Azael; Carroll, C. Ronald

    2012-01-01

    Background Anthropogenic land use may influence transmission of multi-host vector-borne pathogens by changing diversity, relative abundance, and community composition of reservoir hosts. These reservoir hosts may have varying competence for vector-borne pathogens depending on species-specific characteristics, such as life history strategy. The objective of this study is to evaluate how anthropogenic land use change influences blood meal species composition and the effects of changing blood meal species composition on the parasite infection rate of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius pallescens in Panama. Methodology/Principal Findings R. pallescens vectors (N = 643) were collected in different habitat types across a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. Blood meal species in DNA extracted from these vectors was identified in 243 (40.3%) vectors by amplification and sequencing of a vertebrate-specific fragment of the 12SrRNA gene, and T. cruzi vector infection was determined by pcr. Vector infection rate was significantly greater in deforested habitats as compared to contiguous forests. Forty-two different species of blood meal were identified in R. pallescens, and species composition of blood meals varied across habitat types. Mammals (88.3%) dominated R. pallescens blood meals. Xenarthrans (sloths and tamanduas) were the most frequently identified species in blood meals across all habitat types. A regression tree analysis indicated that blood meal species diversity, host life history strategy (measured as rmax, the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase), and habitat type (forest fragments and peridomiciliary sites) were important determinants of vector infection with T. cruzi. The mean intrinsic rate of increase and the skewness and variability of rmax were positively associated with higher vector infection rate at a site. Conclusions/Significance In this study, anthropogenic landscape disturbance increased vector infection with T. cruzi, potentially by changing host community structure to favor hosts that are short-lived with high reproductive rates. Study results apply to potential environmental management strategies for Chagas disease. PMID:23166846

  5. Methods of Recording Rapid Wind Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Magnan, A

    1932-01-01

    The purpose of our research was to determine the rapid changes of air currents which impose varying stresses on the wings of airplanes. We attempted to express in figures the turbulence of the air, which perhaps plays some role in the behavior of airplanes in flight, as well as in the realization of certain methods of gliding flight. This is the reason which led us to conceive and develop the experimental equipment (hot-wire anemometer) described herein.

  6. Space-based surface wind vectors to aid understanding of air-sea interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, R.; Bloom, S. C.; Hoffman, R. N.; Ardizzone, J. V.; Brin, G.

    1991-01-01

    A novel and unique ocean-surface wind data-set has been derived by combining the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imager data with additional conventional data. The variational analysis used generates a gridded surface wind analysis that minimizes an objective function measuring the misfit of the analysis to the background, the data, and certain a priori constraints. In the present case, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts surface-wind analysis is used as the background.

  7. SECULAR CHANGES IN ETA CARINAE'S WIND 1998-2011

    SciTech Connect

    Mehner, Andrea; Davidson, Kris; Humphreys, Roberta M.; Ishibashi, Kazunori; Martin, John C.; Ruiz, Maria Teresa; Walter, Frederick M.

    2012-05-20

    Stellar wind-emission features in the spectrum of eta Carinae have decreased by factors of 1.5-3 relative to the continuum within the last 10 years. We investigate a large data set from several instruments (STIS, GMOS, UVES) obtained between 1998 and 2011 and analyze the progression of spectral changes in direct view of the star, in the reflected polar-on spectra at FOS4, and at the Weigelt knots. We find that the spectral changes occurred gradually on a timescale of about 10 years and that they are dependent on the viewing angle. The line strengths declined most in our direct view of the star. About a decade ago, broad stellar wind-emission features were much stronger in our line-of-sight view of the star than at FOS4. After the 2009 event, the wind-emission line strengths are now very similar at both locations. High-excitation He I and N II absorption lines in direct view of the star strengthened gradually. The terminal velocity of Balmer P Cyg absorption lines now appears to be less latitude dependent, and the absorption strength may have weakened at FOS4. Latitude-dependent alterations in the mass-loss rate and the ionization structure of eta Carinae's wind are likely explanations for the observed spectral changes.

  8. Potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.

    2014-08-01

    It is still possible to limit greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the 2 °C warming threshold for dangerous climate change. Here we explore the potential role of expanded wind energy deployment in climate change mitigation efforts. At present, most turbines are located in extra-tropical Asia, Europe and North America, where climate projections indicate continuity of the abundant wind resource during this century. Scenarios from international agencies indicate that this virtually carbon-free source could supply 10-31% of electricity worldwide by 2050 (refs , ). Using these projections within Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate forcing scenarios, we show that dependent on the precise RCP followed, pursuing a moderate wind energy deployment plan by 2050 delays crossing the 2 °C warming threshold by 1-6 years. Using more aggressive wind turbine deployment strategies delays 2 °C warming by 3-10 years, or in the case of RCP4.5 avoids passing this threshold altogether. To maximize these climate benefits, deployment of non-fossil electricity generation must be coupled with reduced energy use.

  9. Combining Climatic Projections and Dispersal Ability: A Method for Estimating the Responses of Sandfly Vector Species to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Dominik; Moeller, Philipp; Thomas, Stephanie M.; Naucke, Torsten J.; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2011-01-01

    Background In the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing. Methodology Here, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal (“least-cost path”) for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed. Results and Relevance Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases. PMID:22140590

  10. Simulating Population Genetics of Pathogen Vectors in Changing Landscapes: Guidelines and Application with Triatoma brasiliensis

    PubMed Central

    Rebaudo, Francois; Costa, Jane; Almeida, Carlos E.; Silvain, Jean-Francois; Harry, Myriam; Dangles, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Background Understanding the mechanisms that influence the population dynamics and spatial genetic structure of the vectors of pathogens infecting humans is a central issue in tropical epidemiology. In view of the rapid changes in the features of landscape pathogen vectors live in, this issue requires new methods that consider both natural and human systems and their interactions. In this context, individual-based model (IBM) simulations represent powerful yet poorly developed approaches to explore the response of pathogen vectors in heterogeneous social-ecological systems, especially when field experiments cannot be performed. Methodology/Principal Findings We first present guidelines for the use of a spatially explicit IBM, to simulate population genetics of pathogen vectors in changing landscapes. We then applied our model with Triatoma brasiliensis, originally restricted to sylvatic habitats and now found in peridomestic and domestic habitats, posing as the most important Trypanosoma cruzi vector in Northeastern Brazil. We focused on the effects of vector migration rate, maximum dispersal distance and attraction by domestic habitat on T. brasiliensis population dynamics and spatial genetic structure. Optimized for T. brasiliensis using field data pairwise fixation index (FST) from microsatellite loci, our simulations confirmed the importance of these three variables to understand vector genetic structure at the landscape level. We then ran prospective scenarios accounting for land-use change (deforestation and urbanization), which revealed that human-induced land-use change favored higher genetic diversity among sampling points. Conclusions/Significance Our work shows that mechanistic models may be useful tools to link observed patterns with processes involved in the population genetics of tropical pathogen vectors in heterogeneous social-ecological landscapes. Our hope is that our study may provide a testable and applicable modeling framework to a broad community of epidemiologists for formulating scenarios of landscape change consequences on vector dynamics, with potential implications for their surveillance and control. PMID:25102068

  11. Effect of climate change on vector-borne disease risk in the UK.

    PubMed

    Medlock, Jolyon M; Leach, Steve A

    2015-06-01

    During the early part of the 21st century, an unprecedented change in the status of vector-borne disease in Europe has occurred. Invasive mosquitoes have become widely established across Europe, with subsequent transmission and outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya virus. Malaria has re-emerged in Greece, and West Nile virus has emerged throughout parts of eastern Europe. Tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, continue to increase, or, in the case of tick-borne encephalitis and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever viruses, have changed their geographical distribution. From a veterinary perspective, the emergence of Bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses show that northern Europe is equally susceptible to transmission of vector-borne disease. These changes are in part due to increased globalisation, with intercontinental air travel and global shipping transport creating new opportunities for invasive vectors and pathogens. However, changes in vector distributions are being driven by climatic changes and changes in land use, infrastructure, and the environment. In this Review, we summarise the risks posed by vector-borne diseases in the present and the future from a UK perspective, and assess the likely effects of climate change and, where appropriate, climate-change adaptation strategies on vector-borne disease risk in the UK. Lessons from the outbreaks of West Nile virus in North America and chikungunya in the Caribbean emphasise the need to assess future vector-borne disease risks and prepare contingencies for future outbreaks. Ensuring that adaptation strategies for climate change do not inadvertently exacerbate risks should be a primary focus for decision makers. PMID:25808458

  12. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  13. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  14. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  15. Analysis of wind bias change with respect to time at Cape Kennedy, Florida, and Vandenberg AFB, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adelfang, S. I.

    1978-01-01

    A statistical analysis is presented of the temporal variability of wind vectors at 1 km altitude intervals from 0 to 27 km altitude after applying a digital filter to the original wind profile data sample.

  16. Polarimetric Ku-Band Scatterometer for High Accuracy, Large Swath Global Wind Vector Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tsai, Wu-Yang; Nghiem, Son V.; Huddleston, James; Spencer, Michael; Stiles, Bryan; West, Richard

    2000-01-01

    In the past, wind measurements from space using fan-beam antennas, such as Seasat Scatterometer (SASS-1), ERS-1 &2, and NASA scatterometer (NSCAT), required up to six large stick-like antennas and suffered a nadir gap of up to 400 km. In the near future, a spinning pencil-beam scatterometer system is to be used for the SeaWinds scatterometer on QuikSCAT (QSCAT) and on ADEOS-2 (SeaWinds). This scatterometer, though offering wind measurements in the nadir region, still suffers from degraded performance in the nadir and outer swath. The purpose of this paper is to present an advanced polarimetric spinning pencil-beam scatterometer system, which can significantly improve the wind performance across the entire swath. The polarimetric scatterometer simultaneously measures co-polarized backscatter and the polarimetric correlation of co- and cross-polarized radar returns from the ocean surface. The advantage over the conventional scatterometer system is that, while the co-polarization radar returns are even function of the wind direction, the polarimetric correlation is an odd function of wind direction due to the reflection symmetry of the wind roughened surface. Therefore, this polarimetric scatterometer system can provide additional, equivalent measurements at azimuth angle 45degree away from the corresponding co-polarization measurements. The combined co-polarization and correlation measurements enable good wind performance across the whole swath to be obtained. In this paper, we will first present the theoretical formulation of all of the key components required for designing a polarimetric scatterometer. Then, we show that good wind performance can be achieved by a slight improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio of the current QSCAT/SeaWinds design. We then present the predicated wind performance using computer simulation based on a model function for the co-polarized backscatter obtained from actual spaceborne scatterometer data and an estimated model function for the polarimetric correlation based on the asymmetry observed in backscatter data. Finally, we will show that, aside from ocean applications, this polarimetric scatterometer can also be used for ice and land applications.

  17. Effect of wind turbine generator model and siting on wind power changes out of large WECS arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schleuter, R. A.; Park, G. L.; Lotfalian, M.; Dorsey, J.; Shayanfar, H.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls are discussed. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  18. Effect of wind turbine generator model and siting on wind power changes out of large WECS arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schleuter, R. A.; Park, G. L.; Lotfalian, M.; Dorsey, J.; Shayanfar, H.

    1981-05-01

    Methods of reducing the WECS generation change through selection of the wind turbine model for each site, selection of an appropriate siting configuration, and wind array controls are discussed. An analysis of wind generation change from an echelon and a farm for passage of a thunderstorm is presented. Reduction of the wind generation change over ten minutes is shown to reduce the increase in spinning reserve, unloadable generation and load following requirements on unit commitment when significant WECS generation is present and the farm penetration constraint is satisfied. Controls on the blade pitch angle of all wind turbines in an array or a battery control are shown to reduce both the wind generation change out of an array and the effective farm penetration in anticipation of a storm so that the farm penetration constraint may be satisfied.

  19. Chemical ecology of animal and human pathogen vectors in a changing global climate.

    PubMed

    Pickett, John A; Birkett, Michael A; Dewhirst, Sarah Y; Logan, James G; Omolo, Maurice O; Torto, Baldwyn; Pelletier, Julien; Syed, Zainulabeuddin; Leal, Walter S

    2010-01-01

    Infectious diseases affecting livestock and human health that involve vector-borne pathogens are a global problem, unrestricted by borders or boundaries, which may be exacerbated by changing global climate. Thus, the availability of effective tools for control of pathogen vectors is of the utmost importance. The aim of this article is to review, selectively, current knowledge of the chemical ecology of pathogen vectors that affect livestock and human health in the developed and developing world, based on key note lectures presented in a symposium on "The Chemical Ecology of Disease Vectors" at the 25th Annual ISCE meeting in Neuchatel, Switzerland. The focus is on the deployment of semiochemicals for monitoring and control strategies, and discusses briefly future directions that such research should proceed along, bearing in mind the environmental challenges associated with climate change that we will face during the 21st century. PMID:20119869

  20. Method for changing removable bearing for a wind turbine generator

    DOEpatents

    Bagepalli, Bharat Sampathkumaran; Jansen, Patrick Lee; Gadre, Aniruddha Dattatraya

    2008-04-22

    A wind generator having removable change-out bearings includes a rotor and a stator, locking bolts configured to lock the rotor and stator, a removable bearing sub-assembly having at least one shrunk-on bearing installed, and removable mounting bolts configured to engage the bearing sub-assembly and to allow the removable bearing sub-assembly to be removed when the removable mounting bolts are removed.

  1. Confidence and sensitivity study of the OAFlux multisensor synthesis of the global ocean surface vector wind from 1987 onward

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Lisan; Jin, Xiangze

    2014-10-01

    This study presented an uncertainty assessment of the high-resolution global analysis of daily-mean ocean-surface vector winds (1987 onward) by the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) project. The time series was synthesized from multiple satellite sensors using a variational approach to find a best fit to input data in a weighted least-squares cost function. The variational framework requires the a priori specification of the weights, or equivalently, the error covariances of input data, which are seldom known. Two key issues were investigated. The first issue examined the specification of the weights for the OAFlux synthesis. This was achieved by designing a set of weight-varying experiments and applying the criteria requiring that the chosen weights should make the best-fit of the cost function be optimal with regard to both input satellite observations and the independent wind time series measurements at 126 buoy locations. The weights thus determined represent an approximation to the error covariances, which inevitably contain a degree of uncertainty. Hence, the second issue addressed the sensitivity of the OAFlux synthesis to the uncertainty in the weight assignments. Weight perturbation experiments were conducted and ensemble statistics were used to estimate the sensitivity. The study showed that the leading sources of uncertainty for the weight selection are high winds (>15 ms-1) and heavy rain, which are the conditions that cause divergence in wind retrievals from different sensors. Future technical advancement made in wind retrieval algorithms would be key to further improvement of the multisensory synthesis in events of severe storms.

  2. Determination of the Wind-Velocity Vector Above the Ocean Surface Using the Image Spectrum of a Polarimetric Radar with Synthesized Aperture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panfilova, M. A.; Kanevsky, M. B.; Balandina, G. N.; Karaev, V. Yu.; Stoffelen, A.; Verkhoev, A.

    2015-09-01

    We propose a new method for determining the wind-velocity vector above the ocean surface using the data of a polarimetric synthetic aperture radar. The preliminary calculations show that for wind waves, the location of the maximum in the radar image is unambiguously related to the wind velocity, whereas the wind direction is retrieved with an uncertainty of 180°, which is related to the central symmetry of the image spectrum. To eliminate the ambiguity when determining the wind direction, a criterion based on the information on the sign of the coefficient of correlation among the complex signals on the co- and cross polarizations is used. It is shown that using the polarimetric radar, it is theoretically possible to obtain information on both the wind velocity and direction without exact radar calibration.

  3. Ground-based remote sensing of wind vector and visibility: latest results from guideline development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boesenberg, Jens; Danzeisen, Hans H.; Engelbart, Dirk; Fritzsche, Klaus; Klein, Volker; Muenkel, Christoph; Trickl, Thomas; Werner, Christian; Woppowa, Ljuba

    1999-09-01

    Methods which are in discussion to enter a VDI guideline will be presented. Examples of application in local scale area selected. The VDI 'Richtlinie VDI 3786 Umweltmeteorologie,' is divided in many parts. Part 15 shows the remote sensing methods for visibility measurements, part 14 describes the wind profile measurements. Wind profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer yield a very important contribution also to the investigation of atmospheric exchange processes. The wind field in the atmospheric boundary layer is highly variable in spatial and temporal scales. For a few applications a more frequent wind sensing is necessary, i.e. (1) on airports located in low level jet areas, (2) near chemical plants to get information of the transport of toxic gases from leakages,(3) for meteorology in general to improve the weather forecast, (4) for environment protection purposes like dispersion studies. The following statements are valid for visibility measurements: (1) Lidar can provide the same information of the visibility as conventional sensors, but in addition lidar will provide range resolved measurements. (2) It is possible to shrink a lidar down to the size of binoculars. (3) It is possible to measure local visibility with an eye-safe (class 1) lidar. (4) Layers can be detected up to 250 m distance in approximately 2 s even with a small size instrument.

  4. Climate Change and the Risk of European Wind Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulbrich, Uwe; Donat, Markus G.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

    2010-05-01

    The risk of severe European wind storms and related losses is estimated from climate simulations, driven with increasing greenhouse gas forcing. The model runs are evaluated in terms of a chain of related phenomena, including extra-tropical cyclone tracks and intensities, large-scale flow, extreme wind speeds and related loss potentials. The robustness of the climate change signals is estimated by considering multi-model simulations and by comparing the signals based on the different (complementing) analysis methods. While all considered models agree in generating a reduced total number of cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere under the future scenario conditions, an increased activity of extreme cyclones is found over the eastern North Atlantic in most models and also in the ensemble mean. Consistently, an increased frequency of storm days in Central Europe is found, as well as increased extreme wind speed values over northern Central and Western Europe. Applying a simple storm loss model reveals an increase of loss in Central and Western Europe in the ensemble mean, with a considerable spread of the signals in individual ensemble members.

  5. A Delay Vector Variance based Marker for an Output-Only Assessment of Structural Changes in Tension Leg Platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaksic, V.; Wright, C.; Mandic, D. P.; Murphy, J.; Pakrashi, V.

    2015-07-01

    Although aspects of power generation of many offshore renewable devices are well understood, their dynamic responses under high wind and wave conditions are still to be investigated to a great detail. Output only statistical markers are important for these offshore devices, since access to the device is limited and information about the exposure conditions and the true behaviour of the devices are generally partial, limited, and vague or even absent. The markers can summarise and characterise the behaviour of these devices from their dynamic response available as time series data. The behaviour may be linear or nonlinear and consequently a marker that can track the changes in structural situations can be quite important. These markers can then be helpful in assessing the current condition of the structure and can indicate possible intervention, monitoring or assessment. This paper considers a Delay Vector Variance based marker for changes in a tension leg platform tested in an ocean wave basin for structural changes brought about by single column dampers. The approach is based on dynamic outputs of the device alone and is based on the estimation of the nonlinearity of the output signal. The advantages of the selected marker and its response with changing structural properties are discussed. The marker is observed to be important for monitoring the as- deployed structural condition and is sensitive to changes in such conditions. Influence of exposure conditions of wave loading is also discussed in this study based only on experimental data.

  6. Monte Carlo studies of ocean wind vector measurements by SCATT: Objective criteria and maximum likelihood estimates for removal of aliases, and effects of cell size on accuracy of vector winds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierson, W. J.

    1982-01-01

    The scatterometer on the National Oceanic Satellite System (NOSS) is studied by means of Monte Carlo techniques so as to determine the effect of two additional antennas for alias (or ambiguity) removal by means of an objective criteria technique and a normalized maximum likelihood estimator. Cells nominally 10 km by 10 km, 10 km by 50 km, and 50 km by 50 km are simulated for winds of 4, 8, 12 and 24 m/s and incidence angles of 29, 39, 47, and 53.5 deg for 15 deg changes in direction. The normalized maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is correct a large part of the time, but the objective criterion technique is recommended as a reserve, and more quickly computed, procedure. Both methods for alias removal depend on the differences in the present model function at upwind and downwind. For 10 km by 10 km cells, it is found that the MLE method introduces a correlation between wind speed errors and aspect angle (wind direction) errors that can be as high as 0.8 or 0.9 and that the wind direction errors are unacceptably large, compared to those obtained for the SASS for similar assumptions.

  7. Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

  8. Methods of reducing wind power changes from large wind turbine arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlueter, R. A.; Park, G. L.; Lotfalian, M.; Shayanfar, H.; Dorsey, J.

    1983-06-01

    Methods for reducing the changes incurred by wind energy conversion systems (WECS) arrays experiencing atmospheric events that fluctuate near the load-following limit of the grid regulation are presented. Both analytical and computer simulation results are given for increasing the WECS generation output over a short period to compensate for the transient; attention is focussed on a 10 min passage of a thunderstorm over an echelon and a windfarm. Choice of an appropriate wind turbine configuration is shown to permit control of the variation of output while simultaneously reducing the effective level of windfarm grid penetration. A storm gust can increase the output from zero to rated power in less than a minute. Coordinated controllable pitch blades and careful selection of sites and array configuration can smooth the abrupt changes otherwise experienced by the grid. Consideration is given to echelons and arrays of Mod 2s and Mod 1s arranged so that the distance between echelons are comensurate with distances between storm leading edges and trailing inflows.

  9. Flare-related changes in pseudo-vector magnetic field derived from line-of-sight magnetograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burtseva, Olga; Gosain, Sanjay; Pevtsov, Alexei A.

    2016-05-01

    Longitudinal field is a projection of full vector field to the line-of-sight direction. Thus, it is possible to derive some information about the vector field from line-of-sight data in round sunspots, assuming that average properties of vector magnetic field in these sunspots depend mostly on distance from center of sunspot. Under this assumption, one can reconstruct vertical, radial, and tangential components of vector magnetic field using azimuthal averaging. This technique can be useful for investigation of twist and inclination in magnetic field in particular in flaring regions when vector data are not available. In this study we validate the cylindrical symmetry technique on example of a simple round sunspot. Then we attempt to study changes in (pseudo-vector) magnetic fields in isolated and round sunspots associated with flare events using SDO/HMI longitudinal magnetograms. We compare the pseudo-vector results with vector data.

  10. Modeling and space vector control of a novel multilevel matrix converter for variable-speed wind power generators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Naseem, Osama Abdulrahman

    A novel multilevel matrix converter is developed to efficiently transfer energy between a three-phase variable-speed generator of a wind turbine and a three-phase ac utility network. Optimizing the energy transfer efficiency at light load is critical in variable-speed wind generators. Laboratory experiment suggests that converter efficiency at light load may be increased via soft-switching and multilevel switching techniques. The new converter includes the advantages of multilevel converters, such as reduced harmonic content, increased power handling capability without additional switching loss, and high efficiency at low machine voltages. It also features the characteristics of conventional matrix converters, such as space vector control and improved efficiency via auxiliary resonant commutation soft-switching techniques. Similar to a conventional matrix converter, the novel multilevel matrix converter uses a nine-switch matrix with four-quadrant switches to connect input phases at one side of the converter with output phases at the other side of the converter. However, the switches of the new converter are configured differently from those used in the conventional matrix converter. Each switch of the new converter is a cell that resembles a full-bridge inverter topology and can assume three voltage levels while used. Semiconductor devices in a switch cell are always clamped to a known constant do voltage of a capacitor. This is a typical characteristic of multilevel converters where device voltage stresses are reduced by clamping the main transistor voltages to low levels. With reduced voltage stresses, switching frequency can be increased to allow for reduced size of filter magnetics. Unlike conventional matrix converter, the multilevel matrix converter uses inductors on both input and output sides of the converter. This symmetry allows for both step up and step down operations. Each switch cell features double the power handling capability compared to the four-quadrant switches used in a conventional matrix converter. This increase in power handling capability is due to the doubling of the number of devices in a multilevel matrix converter switch cell. Scaling up the power handling capability is accomplished by cascading more than one switch cell per branch. Control of the new converter is achieved through space vector modulation in which three-phase ac voltages are transformed to the d-q reference frame and compared with a set of space vectors prior to modulation. Since it has 19683 different switching combinations, control can be difficult and complex. Nevertheless, the multilevel matrix converter has been modeled and controlled through simulation. Simulation results show the possibility of operating the converter to produce the desired voltage waveforms with universal input and output power factors and maintain constant capacitor voltages simultaneously. Also in this dissertation is the derivation of an analytical averaged equivalent circuit model of a PWM converter. This model reveals how dominant loss mechanisms vary with converter operating point. The model is based on the operational characteristics of power diodes and IGBTs. Laboratory experiments support the derived model and confirm that IGBT current tailing and diode reverse-recovery are indeed the most critical losses in a PWM converter. These losses are more significant at light load, hence reducing the energy capture capability of converters used in wind generation. The results suggest that multilevel conversion, which has been employed in the novel multilevel matrix converter, could improve the low-wind converter efficiency.

  11. Study on growth monitoring of winter wheat based on change vector analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xiaohe; Pan, Yaozhong; Han, Lijian; Xu, Chao

    2007-06-01

    The basic idea of current study of crop growth monitoring is to analyze the relation between the shape variety of NDVI curve and the condition variety of crop, calculate the feature factors, and speculate the growing condition of crop. This investigation takes five high-yield provinces as study area, including Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu, and takes winter wheat as study object. The ten days maximum value composite (MVC) SPOT-VEGETATION dataset, from 1999 to 2005, is used as the main remotely sensed data. Savizky-Golay filter method, which made the NDVI time-series curve disclose the change rule of winter wheat growth better, is use to eliminate the noise. And then the method of Change Vector Analysis (CVA) is applied to detect the change dynamics of winter wheat. According to the each average value of Change Vector in six years, changes, intra-annual, inter-annual and interlocal, of winter wheat have been quantified. The result shows that the method of Change Vector Analysis is effective for monitoring the winter wheat growth as a new idea, which can integrate most of the feature factors of NDVI curve.

  12. Assessment of changes of vector borne diseases with wetland characteristics using multivariate analysis.

    PubMed

    Sheela, A M; Sarun, S; Justus, J; Vineetha, P; Sheeja, R V

    2015-04-01

    Vector borne diseases are a threat to human health. Little attention has been paid to the prevention of these diseases. We attempted to identify the significant wetland characteristics associated with the spread of chikungunya, dengue fever and malaria in Kerala, a tropical region of South West India using multivariate analyses (hierarchical cluster analysis, factor analysis and multiple regression). High/medium turbid coastal lagoons and inland water-logged wetlands with aquatic vegetation have significant effect on the incidence of chikungunya while dengue influenced by high turbid coastal beaches and malaria by medium turbid coastal beaches. The high turbidity in water is due to the urban waste discharge namely sewage, sullage and garbage from the densely populated cities and towns. The large extent of wetland is low land area favours the occurrence of vector borne diseases. Hence the provision of pollution control measures at source including soil erosion control measures is vital. The identification of vulnerable zones favouring the vector borne diseases will help the authorities to control pollution especially from urban areas and prevent these vector borne diseases. Future research should cover land use cover changes, climatic factors, seasonal variations in weather and pollution factors favouring the occurrence of vector borne diseases. PMID:25412801

  13. Evidence that implicit assumptions of 'no evolution' of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale.

    PubMed

    Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H; Fonseca, Dina M

    2015-04-01

    Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7-10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. PMID:25688024

  14. Climate change and threat of vector-borne diseases in India: are we prepared?

    PubMed

    Dhiman, Ramesh C; Pahwa, Sharmila; Dhillon, G P S; Dash, Aditya P

    2010-03-01

    It is unequivocal that climate change is happening and is likely to expand the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue etc. to higher altitudes and latitudes. India is endemic for six major vector-borne diseases (VBD) namely malaria, dengue, chikungunya, filariasis, Japanese encephalitis and visceral leishmaniasis. Over the years, there has been reduction in the incidence of almost all the diseases except chikungunya which has re-emerged since 2005. The upcoming issue of climate change has surfaced as a new threat and challenge for ongoing efforts to contain vector-borne diseases. There is greater awareness about the potential impacts of climate change on VBDs in India and research institutions and national authorities have initiated actions to assess the impacts. Studies undertaken in India on malaria in the context of climate change impact reveal that transmission windows in Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern states are likely to extend temporally by 2-3 months and in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu there may be reduction in transmission windows. Using PRECIS model (driven by HadRM2) at the resolution of 50 x 50 Km for daily temperature and relative humidity for year 2050, it was found that Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam will still remain malarious and transmission windows will open up in Himachal Pradesh and north-eastern states etc. Impact of climate change on dengue also reveals increase in transmission with 2 C rise in temperature in northern India. Re-emergence of kala-azar in northern parts of India and reappearance of chikungunya mainly in southern states of India has also been discussed. The possible need to address the threat and efforts made in India have also been highlighted. The paper concludes with a positive lead that with better preparedness threat of climate change on vector-borne diseases may be negated. PMID:20155369

  15. The Ocean's Abyssal Mass Flux Sustained Primarily By the Wind: Vector Correlation of Time Series in Upper and Abyssal Layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hancock, L. O.

    2003-12-01

    As Wunsch has recently noted (2002), use of the term "thermohaline circulation" is muddled. The term is used with at least seven inconsistent meanings, among them abyssal circulation, the circulation driven by density and pressure differences in the deep ocean, the global conveyor, and at least four others. The use of a single term for all these concepts can create an impression that an understanding exists whereby in various combinations the seven meanings have been demonstrated to mean the same thing. But that is not the case. A particularly important consequence of the muddle is the way in which abyssal circulation is sometimes taken to be driven mostly or entirely by temperature and density differences, and equivalent to the global conveyor. But in fact the distinction between abyssal and upper-layer circulation has not been measured. To find out whether available data justifies a distinction between the upper-layer and abyssal circulations, this study surveyed velocity time series obtained by deep current meter moorings. Altogether, 114 moorings were identified, drawn from about three dozen experiments worldwide over the period 1973-1996, each of which deployed current meters in both the upper (2003750) layers. For each pair of current meters, the Kundu and Crosby measures of vector correlation were estimated, as well as coherences for periods from 10 to 60 days. In the North Atlantic, for example, Kundu vector correlation (50-day window): 0.48 +/- .03 Crosby vector correlation (absolute value, 50 day window): 0.46 +/- .07 Coherence at 60 days: .36 +/- .07 - at 30 days: 0.40 +/- .06 - at 10 days: 0.22 +/- .05 Most figures for the South Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans are similar. Those obtained in the Indian Ocean or near the Equator are somewhat different. The statistics obtained here are consistent with the work of Wunsch (1997), and tend to confirm Wunsch's result that current velocities at depth are linked with those in the upper layers. Energetics of the circulation that do not take this into account are making an unjustifiable approximation of the physics. These results do not tell us whether time averaged flow on longer time scales might permit distinction of upper layer and abyssal flow components. Some intriguing corollaries do follow. First, the abyssal circulation is not identically the same thing as a global conveyor belt driven by temperature and density differences. Rather, as Wunsch noted (2002), the ocean's mass flux is sustained primarily by the wind. We may add that these wind patterns are about as robust as the temperature differences between equator and pole; this major driver of circulation is not a frail phenomenon. Second, the classical notion of a level of no motion that is also a constant-density surface, an LNM, is inconsistent with the results presented here. Such an LNM would wall off the upper layer circulation from the lower, and as they are not walled off, there can be no such LNM. Third, wind stress is being transmitted down column, presumably to the sea floor.

  16. Projected Future Distributions of Vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Garza, Miroslava; Feria Arroyo, Teresa Patricia; Casillas, Edgar A.; Sanchez-Cordero, Victor; Rivaldi, Chissa-Louise; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2014-01-01

    Background Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. Methodology/Principal Findings We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. Conclusions/Significance The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. PMID:24831117

  17. Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change.

    PubMed

    Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

    2013-09-24

    Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions. PMID:24019459

  18. Community-based dengue vector control: experiences in behavior change in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

    PubMed

    Espino, Fe; Marco, Jesusa; Salazar, Nelia P; Salazar, Ferdinand; Mendoza, Ysadora; Velazco, Aldwin

    2012-12-01

    Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne disease in the Philippines, especially in Metropolitan Manila where communities are socially and economically diverse, and city governments struggle to provide basic services such as continuously available, piped water supply to residents. We examined responses to introducing water container management to control dengue vectors in two diverse communities in Masagana City: Village A (gated community) and Village B (informal settlers community). The roll out of the intervention was carried out by the study team, dengue control personnel and local health workers (BHWs). A behavioural change framework was used to describe the community responses to the introduction of a new vector control intervention - household water container management. Although, the desired outcome was not achieved during the study's timeline, observation on processes of behaviour change underscored the importance of understanding the social nature of the urban communities, often overlooked structures when dengue control program and researchers introduce new dengue control interventions. PMID:23318237

  19. Pressure distribution on a vectored-thrust V/STOL fighter in the transition-speed range. [wind tunnel tests to measure pressure distribution on body and wing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mineck, R. E.; Margason, R. J.

    1974-01-01

    A wind-tunnel investigation has been conducted in the Langley V/STOL tunnel with a vectored-thrust V/STOL fighter configuration to obtain detailed pressure measurements on the body and on the wing in the transition-speed range. The vectored-thrust jet exhaust induced a region of negative pressure coefficients on the lower surface of the wing and on the bottom of the fuselage. The location of the jet exhaust relative to the wing was a major factor in determining the extent of the region of negative pressure coefficients.

  20. Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Heidi E.; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline; Andreadis, Theodore G.; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, we estimate mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location, however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, mid-summer decreases in abundance may be off-set by shorter extrinsic incubation periods resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk. PMID:27057131

  1. Things Fall Apart: Topology Change From Winding Tachyons

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, A.

    2005-02-04

    We argue that closed string tachyons drive two spacetime topology changing transitions--loss of genus in a Riemann surface and separation of a Riemann surface into two components. The tachyons of interest are localized versions of Scherk-Schwarz winding string tachyons arising on Riemann surfaces in regions of moduli space where string-scale tubes develop. Spacetime and world-sheet renormalization group analyses provide strong evidence that the decay of these tachyons removes a portion of the spacetime, splitting the tube into two pieces. We address the fate of the gauge fields and charges lost in the process, generalize it to situations with weak flux backgrounds, and use this process to study the type 0 tachyon, providing further evidence that its decay drives the theory sub-critical. Finally, we discuss the time-dependent dynamics of this topology-changing transition and find that it can occur more efficiently than analogous transitions on extended supersymmetric moduli spaces, which are limited by moduli trapping.

  2. Changing distribution patterns of canine vector borne diseases in Italy: leishmaniosis vs. dirofilariosis

    PubMed Central

    Otranto, Domenico; Capelli, Gioia; Genchi, Claudio

    2009-01-01

    Ecological and climatic changes, human and animal population dynamics are among the several factors that have favoured the spread or the (re)introduction and establishment of "novel" vector species and pathogens they transmit in previously disease-free geographical areas. As key examples of the changing pattern of distribution of canine vector borne diseases (CVBDs), the current distribution of canine leishmaniosis (CanL) by Leishmania infantum and dirofilariosis by Dirofilaria immitis causing heart worm disease (HW) in Italy is discussed on the basis of retrospective historical reports until the 90's and later on until 2009. For long time, D. immitis has been considered mainly present along the Po River Valley and northward areas, while L. infantum in south-central Italy and Sicily and Sardinia. Comparison of current available and historical data (up to 1989) confirms that HW and CanL, although with different prevalence rates, have been changing their distribution patterns in Italy as a result of many biological and ecological factors, including those related to vector distribution and introduction of new species (e.g. the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, a competent vector of D. immitis). New autochthonous foci of HW in southern Italy (i.e. Apulia and Calabria regions) have recently been reported. Although analysing retrospective data may represent a difficult task, the "paradigm" about the dual distribution of HW and CanL in northern and southern Italy cannot yet be considered valid. The research needs for managing HW and CanL in previously uninfected areas are discussed. PMID:19426441

  3. Impact of climate change in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in domestic carnivores.

    PubMed

    Beugnet, F; Chalvet-Monfray, K

    2013-12-01

    Vector-borne diseases are medically important in humans and animals but were long considered tropical and known to first affect production animals. This is no longer true and we can see today that they are common in domestic animals and that they are also present in temperate countries, especially in Europe. In recent years, an increase in the diagnosis of vector borne diseases among humans and animals has been observed, which may partly due to the development of diagnostic tools. Their study requires exchanges and collaborations between the many actors involved, especially since the epidemiology seems to be constantly evolving. The veterinary practitioner is the first one to notice the emergence of cases and to implement prevention measures. He also acts as a sentinel to alert epidemiologists. Many factors can explain the epidemiological changes, i.e. all human factors, such as the increase in commercial transportation, but also owners traveling with their pet during the holidays, the development of "outdoor" activities, the increase of individual housings with gardens; to these human factors must be added the ignorance of the risks, linked to animals in general and to wildlife in particular; then the environmental changes: forest fragmentation, establishment of parks; the increase of wild mammal populations (deer, carnivores, rodents, etc.); finally, climate changes. Climate change is a reality which may explain the increase of density of arthropod vectors, but also of their hosts, changes in periods of activity and variations in geographical distribution. The authors show the proof of the climate modifications and then explain how it has an impact in Europe on ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and even fleas. They conclude on the practical consequences for veterinary practitioners, especially with the diagnosis of parasitic diseases or diseases in areas where they usually do not occur. However, not any epidemiological modification should be linked to climate change, since many other factors are involved and often even overriding. PMID:23953958

  4. Climate Change, Public Health, and Decision Support: The New Threat of Vector-borne Disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, F.; Kumar, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change and vector-borne diseases constitute a massive threat to human development. It will not be enough to cut emissions of greenhouse gases-the tide of the future has already been established. Climate change and vector-borne diseases are already undermining the world's efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It is in the best interests of the world leaders to think in terms of concerted global actions, but adaptation and mitigation must be accomplished within the context of local community conditions, resources, and needs. Failure to act will continue to consign developed countries to completely avoidable health risks and significant expense. Failure to act will also reduce poorest of the world's population-some 2.6 billion people-to a future of diminished opportunity. Northrop Grumman has taken significant steps forward to develop the tools needed to assess climate change impacts on public health, collect relevant data for decision making, model projections at regional and local levels; and, deliver information and knowledge to local and regional stakeholders. Supporting these tools is an advanced enterprise architecture consisting of high performance computing, GIS visualization, and standards-based architecture. To address current deficiencies in local planning and decision making with respect to regional climate change and its effect on human health, our research is focused on performing a dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to develop decision aids that translate the regional climate data into actionable information for users. For the present climate WRF was forced with the Max Planck Institute European Center/Hamburg Model version 5 (ECHAM5) General Circulation Model 20th century simulation. For the 21th century climate, we used an ECHAM5 simulation with the Special Report on Emissions (SRES) A1B emissions scenario. WRF was run in nested mode at spatial resolution of 108 km, 36 km and 12 km and 28 vertical levels. This model was examined relative to two mosquito vectors, both competent carriers of dengue fever, a viral, vector-borne disease. Models which incorporate public health considerations can enable decision makers to take proactive steps to mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing environmental conditions. In this paper we provide a snapshot of our climate initiative and some examples relative to our public health practice work in vector-borne diseases to illustrate how integrated decision support could be of assistance to regional and local communities worldwide.

  5. Support Vector Machines for Multitemporal and Multisensor Change Detection in a Mining Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecheltjen, Antje; Waske, Bjorn; Thonfeld, Frank; Braun, Matthias; Menz, Gunter

    2010-12-01

    Long-term change detection often implies the challenge of incorporating multitemporal data from different sensors. Most of the conventional change detection algorithms are designed for bi-temporal datasets from the same sensors detecting only the existence of changes. The labeling of change areas remains a difficult task. To overcome such drawbacks, much attention has been given lately to algorithms arising from machine learning, such as Support Vector Machines (SVMs). While SVMs have been applied successfully for land cover classifications, the exploitation of this approach for change detection is still in its infancy. Few studies have already proven the applicability of SVMs for bi- and multitemporal change detection using data from one sensor only. In this paper we demonstrate the application of SVM for multitemporal and -sensor change detection. Our study site covers lignite open pit mining areas in the German state North Rhine-Westphalia. The dataset consists of bi-temporal Landsat data and multi-temporal ERS SAR data covering two time slots (2001 and 2009). The SVM is conducted using the IDL program imageSVM. Change is deduced from one time slot to the next resulting in two change maps. In contrast to change detection, which is based on post-classification comparison, change detection is seen here as a specific classification problem. Thus, changes are directly classified from a layer-stack of the two years. To reduce the number of change classes, we created a change mask using the magnitude of Change Vector Analysis (CVA). Training data were selected for different change classes (e.g. forest to mining or mining to agriculture) as well as for the no-change classes (e.g. agriculture). Subsequently, they were divided in two independent sets for training the SVMs and accuracy assessment, respectively. Our study shows the applicability of SVMs to classify changes via SVMs. The proposed method yielded a change map of reclaimed and active mines. The use of ERS SAR data, however, did not add to the accuracy compared to Landsat data only. A great advantage compared to other change detection approaches are the labeled change maps, which are a direct output of the methodology. Our approach also overcomes the drawback of post-classification comparison, namely the propagation of classification inaccuracies.

  6. OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF CHANGING PHOTOSPHERIC VECTOR MAGNETIC FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Su, J. T.; Jing, J.; Wang, H. M.; Mao, X. J.; Wang, X. F.; Zhang, H. Q.; Deng, Y. Y.; Guo, J.; Wang, G. P.

    2011-06-01

    Recent observations have provided evidence that the solar photospheric magnetic fields could have rapid and permanent changes in both longitudinal and transverse components associated with major flares. As a result, the Lorentz force (LF) acting on the solar photosphere and solar interior could be perturbed, and the change of LF is always nearly in the downward direction. However, these rapid and permanent changes have not been systematically investigated, yet, using vector magnetograms. In this paper, we analyze photospheric vector magnetograms covering five flares to study the evolution of photospheric magnetic fields. In particular, we investigate two-dimensional spatial distributions of the changing LF. Around the major flaring polarity inversion line, the net change of the LF is directed downward in an area of {approx}10{sup 19} cm{sup 2} for X-class flares. For all events, the white-light observations show that sunspots darken in this location after flares, and magnetic fields become more inclined, which is consistent with the ideas put forward by Hudson et al. and Fisher et al., and observations.

  7. The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Tian; Popp, David

    2016-01-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a project-based carbon trade mechanism that subsidizes the users of climate-friendly technologies and encourages technology transfer. The CDM has provided financial support for a large share of Chinese wind projects since 2002. Using pooled cross-sectional data of 486 registered CDM wind projects in China

  8. The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power: Evidence from China's CDM Wind Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Tian; Popp, David

    2016-01-01

    The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a project-based carbon trade mechanism that subsidizes the users of climate-friendly technologies and encourages technology transfer. The CDM has provided financial support for a large share of Chinese wind projects since 2002. Using pooled cross-sectional data of 486 registered CDM wind projects in China…

  9. Winds of change stir up near-record hurricane season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlowicz, Michael

    Perhaps in four or five years, if scientists can gather enough evidence to theorize that the great Atlantic Ocean Conveyor Belt is moving quickly again, they might consider 1995 a turning point in the recent history of hurricane trends. But until then, researchers will have to keep this year in the record book of hurricane anomalies.The conveyor-like megacurrent that cycles water from the Indian and Pacific Oceans into the Atlantic and back—particularly warm water from the tropical Atlantic to the edge of the Arctic—seems poised to pick up its pace, according to hurricane researcher William Gray of Colorado State University. A quicker thermohaline conveyor belt, Gray believes, may be the driver behind the cyclical, decades-long trends in sea surface temperatures that, by corollary, affect multi-decadal storm patterns. “The conveyor belt has apparently been slowed down for 25 years,” Gray notes, a change that has coincided with more El Niño events, less rainfall in Africa, and stronger zonal winds. All three of those factors seem to be what Gray calls “proxy manifestations” of conveyor belt variability.

  10. Impact of assimilation of INSAT cloud motion vector (CMV) wind for the prediction of a monsoon depression over Indian Ocean using a mesoscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xavier, V. F.; Chandrasekar, A.; Singh, Devendra

    2006-12-01

    The present study utilized the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5), to assimilate the INSAT-CMV (Indian National Satellite System-Cloud Motion Vector) wind observations using analysis nudging to improve the prediction of a monsoon depression which occurred over the Arabian Sea, India during 14 September 2005 to 17 September 2005. NCEP-FNL analysis has been utilized as the initial and lateral boundary conditions and two sets of numerical experiments were designed to reveal the impact of assimilation of satellite-derived winds. The model was integrated from 14 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 00 UTC, with just the NCEP FNL analysis in the NOFDDA run. In the FDDA run, the NCEP FNL analysis fields were improved by assimilating the INSAT-CMV (wind speed and wind direction) as well as QuickSCAT sea surface winds during the 24 hour pre-forecast period (14 September 2005 00 UTC to 15 September 2005 00 UTC) using analysis nudging. The model was subsequently run in the free forecast mode from 15 September 2005 00 UTC to 17 September 2005 12 UTC. The simulated sea level pressure field from the NOFDDA run reveals a relatively stronger system as compared to the FDDA run. However, the sea level pressure fields corresponding to the FDDA run are closer to the analysis. The simulated lower tropospheric winds from both experiments reveal a well-developed cyclonic circulation as compared to the analysis.

  11. Simulation comparison of a decoupled longitudinal control system and a velocity vector control wheel steering system during landings in wind shear

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kimball, G., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    A simulator comparison of the velocity vector control wheel steering (VCWS) system and a decoupled longitudinal control system is presented. The piloting task was to use the electronic attitude direction indicator (EADI) to capture and maintain a 3 degree glide slope in the presence of wind shear and to complete the landing using the perspective runway included on the EADI. The decoupled control system used constant prefilter and feedback gains to provide steady state decoupling of flight path angle, pitch angle, and forward velocity. The decoupled control system improved the pilots' ability to control airspeed and flight path angle during the final stages of an approach made in severe wind shear. The system also improved their ability to complete safe landings. The pilots preferred the decoupled control system in severe winds and, on a pilot rating scale, rated the approach and landing task with the decoupled control system as much as 3 to 4 increments better than use of the VCWS system.

  12. The impact of climate change on the U.S. wind energy resource

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Kirk-Davidoff; Daniel Barrie

    2013-03-19

    The growing need for low-carbon emitting electricity sources has resulted in rapid growth in the wind power industry. The size and steadiness of the offshore wind resource has attracted growing investment in the planning of offshore wind turbine installations. Decisions about the location and character of wind farms should be made with an eye not only to present but also future wind resource, which may change as increasing carbon dioxide forces reductions in the poleward temperature gradient, and thus potentially in the mean tropospheric westerly winds. I propose to use the new North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate projections to estimate the change of the wind power resource under various carbon dioxide loading scenarios and for a range of climate models. We will compare our assessment with both our assessment based on the IPCC AR4 model runs, to explore the extent to which improved model resolution changes the prediction for the wind power resource, and with present day estimates from reanalysis and scatterometer winds.

  13. Mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges: vector range and the influence of climate change.

    PubMed

    Elbers, A R W; Koenraadt, C J M; Meiswinkel, R

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne animal diseases pose a continuous and substantial threat to livestock economies around the globe. Increasing international travel, the globalisation of trade, and climate change are likely to play a progressively more important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of arthropod-borne pathogens worldwide. A review of the literature reveals that many climatic variables, functioning singly or in combination, exert varying effects on the distribution and range of Culicoides vector midges and mosquitoes. For example, higher temperatures may be associated with increased insect abundance--thereby amplifying the risk of disease transmission--but there are no indications yet of dramatic shifts occurring in the geographic range of Culicoides midges. However, the same cannot be said for mosquitoes: over the last few decades, multiple Asian species have established themselves in Europe, spread and are unlikely to ever be eradicated. Research on how insects respond to changes in climate is still in its infancy. The authors argue that we need to grasp how other annectant changes, such as extremes in precipitation (drought and flooding), may affect the dispersal capability of mosquitoes. Models are useful for assessing the interplay between mosquito vectors expanding their range and the native flora and fauna; however, ecological studies employing classical mark-release-recapture techniques remain essential for addressing fundamental questions about the survival and dispersal of mosquito species, with the resulting parameters fed directly into new-generation disease transmission models. Studies on the eventual impact of mosquitoes on animal and human health should be tackled through large-scale integrated research programmes. Such an approach calls for more collaborative efforts, along the lines of the One Health Initiative. PMID:26470453

  14. Dynamics of Sylvatic Chagas Disease Vectors in Coastal Ecuador Is Driven by Changes in Land Cover

    PubMed Central

    Grijalva, Mario J.; Terán, David; Dangles, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Background Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics. Methodology and Principal Findings The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points) allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1) sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71%) and 2) densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts. Conclusion We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio-ecological systems is a crucial, yet poorly considered, issue for the long-term control of Chagas disease. PMID:24968118

  15. Changes in the Burgers Vector of Perfect Dislocation Loops without Contact with the External Dislocations

    SciTech Connect

    Arakawa, K.; Hatanaka, M.; Mori, H.; Kuramoto, E.; Ono, K.

    2006-03-31

    We report the observations of a new type of changing process in the Burgers vector of dislocations by in situ transmission electron microscopy. Small interstitial-type perfect dislocation loops in bcc iron with diameters less than approximately 50 nm are transformed from a 1/2<111> loop to another 1/2<111> one or an energetically unfavorable <100> one; furthermore, a <100> loop is transformed to a 1/2<111> one. These transformations occurred on high-energy electron irradiation or simple heating without contact with external dislocations. The origin of these phenomena is discussed.

  16. Potential Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases: A Review and Proposed Research Plan

    PubMed Central

    Mills, James N.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Khan, Ali S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Because of complex interactions of climate variables at the levels of the pathogen, vector, and host, the potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) is poorly understood and difficult to predict. Climate effects on the nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases are especially obscure and have received scant treatment. Objective We described known and potential effects of climate change on VBZDs and proposed specific studies to increase our understanding of these effects. The nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases have received scant treatment and are emphasized in this paper. Data sources and synthesis We used a review of the existing literature and extrapolations from observations of short-term climate variation to suggest potential impacts of climate change on VBZDs. Using public health priorities on climate change, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed six specific goals for increasing understanding of the interaction between climate and VBZDs and for improving capacity for predicting climate change effects on incidence and distribution of VBZDs. Conclusions Climate change may affect the incidence of VBZDs through its effect on four principal characteristics of host and vector populations that relate to pathogen transmission to humans: geographic distribution, population density, prevalence of infection by zoonotic pathogens, and the pathogen load in individual hosts and vectors. These mechanisms may interact with each other and with other factors such as anthropogenic disturbance to produce varying effects on pathogen transmission within host and vector populations and to humans. Because climate change effects on most VBZDs act through wildlife hosts and vectors, understanding these effects will require multidisciplinary teams to conduct and interpret ecosystem-based studies of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations and to identify the hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest potential to affect human populations under climate change scenarios. PMID:20576580

  17. Wind shear measuring on board an airliner

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krauspe, P.

    1984-01-01

    A measurement technique which continuously determines the wind vector on board an airliner during takeoff and landing is introduced. Its implementation is intended to deliver sufficient statistical background concerning low frequency wind changes in the atmospheric boundary layer and extended knowledge about deterministic wind shear modeling. The wind measurement scheme is described and the adaptation of apparatus onboard an A300 airbus is shown. Preliminary measurements made during level flight demonstrate the validity of the method.

  18. Recent tax law changes create new opportunities for leasing wind energy property

    SciTech Connect

    Schutzer, George J.

    2010-01-15

    Recent changes in tax law make leveraged lease transactions far more attractive on paper than they were before the changes. However, changes in the economy and the financial industry and other changes in law counterbalance the favorable tax law changes and make it uncertain whether lease transactions will be used to finance new wind facilities. (author)

  19. North Sea wind climate in changing weather regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, Ivonne; Rockel, Burkhardt

    2015-04-01

    Results from regional climate models (RCMs) are getting more and more important in future wind climate assessment. From RCMs often only the daily wind speed is available, but no information on prevailing wind direction of each day. Weather regime classification can close this gap and models ability of simulating surface wind speed can be analysed in detail. Several objective regime classifications have been investigated to be a sufficient diagnostic tool to evaluate the present wind climate at the German and Dutch coastal area of the North Sea. The classification by Jenkinson and Collison (1977) uses values for mean sea level pressure at 16 locations centered over the North Sea. Beside the predefined 8 prevailed wind directions and the two possibilities on cyclonic or anticyclonic turbulence, 2x8 hybrid weather types can be defined. In this way 27 different regimes can be distinguished including a class of non-classifiable cases. The 27 regimes could be reduced to a number of 11 by allotting the hybrid types to the directional or the centered types. As the classification is carried out for the North Sea based on ERA40 mean sea level pressure the different regimes clearly reflect the mean wind characteristics at the stations. Comparing the wind roses for the individual observations leads to the assumption that the regime classification described before fits the requirements to carry out the regime dependent evaluation of the RCMs with a focus on the German and Dutch coast. Trends in the occurrence of the regimes in the winter period of 1961 to 2000 show an increase of the regimes with Western and Southwestern wind directions and a decrease of wind events from Eastern directions in the North Sea. The trend is dominated by the strong positive phase of the NAO especially in the months January to March starting in the beginning of the 1980s. Due to the applied method ERA40 and the RCMs do not necessarily show the same regime at each day. The agreement among the RCM simulations carried out in the ENSEMBLES framework and ERA40 has been analysed in a last step. References: Jenkinson A, Collison F (1977) An initial climatology of gales over the north sea. Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum 62:18pp, UK Met Office

  20. Climate, Environmental, and Socioeconomic Change Weighing up the Balance in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission

    SciTech Connect

    Parham, Paul; Waldock, Johanna; Christophides, George; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald; Naumova, Elena; Ostfeld, Richard; Ready, Paul; Thomas, Matthew; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Edwin, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is due not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but, perhaps most crucially, the multitude of epidemiological, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the last 10-15 years. In this article, and Theme Issue, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions, and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field moving forwards. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. This Theme Issue seeks to cover both, reflected in the breadth and depth of the topics and VBD-systems considered, itself strongly indicative of the challenging, but necessary, multidisciplinary nature of this research field.

  1. Climate, Environmental, and Socioeconomic Change Weighing up the Balance in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Parham, Paul; Waldock, Johanna; Christophides, George; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; et al

    2015-01-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is due not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but, perhaps most crucially, the multitude of epidemiological, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the last 10-15 years. Inmore » this article, and Theme Issue, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions, and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field moving forwards. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. This Theme Issue seeks to cover both, reflected in the breadth and depth of the topics and VBD-systems considered, itself strongly indicative of the challenging, but necessary, multidisciplinary nature of this research field.« less

  2. Operation of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system under conditions of stochastic change of wind energy.

    PubMed

    Tomczewski, Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents the issues of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system (WT-FESS) operation under real conditions. Stochastic changes of wind energy in time cause significant fluctuations of the system output power and as a result have a negative impact on the quality of the generated electrical energy. In the author's opinion it is possible to reduce the aforementioned effects by using an energy storage of an appropriate type and capacity. It was assumed that based on the technical parameters of a wind turbine-energy storage system and its geographical location one can determine the boundary capacity of the storage, which helps prevent power cuts to the grid at the assumed probability. Flywheel energy storage was selected due to its characteristics and technical parameters. The storage capacity was determined based on an empirical relationship using the results of the proposed statistical and energetic analysis of the measured wind velocity courses. A detailed algorithm of the WT-FESS with the power grid system was developed, eliminating short-term breaks in the turbine operation and periods when the wind turbine power was below the assumed level. PMID:25215326

  3. Operation of a Wind Turbine-Flywheel Energy Storage System under Conditions of Stochastic Change of Wind Energy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents the issues of a wind turbine-flywheel energy storage system (WT-FESS) operation under real conditions. Stochastic changes of wind energy in time cause significant fluctuations of the system output power and as a result have a negative impact on the quality of the generated electrical energy. In the author's opinion it is possible to reduce the aforementioned effects by using an energy storage of an appropriate type and capacity. It was assumed that based on the technical parameters of a wind turbine-energy storage system and its geographical location one can determine the boundary capacity of the storage, which helps prevent power cuts to the grid at the assumed probability. Flywheel energy storage was selected due to its characteristics and technical parameters. The storage capacity was determined based on an empirical relationship using the results of the proposed statistical and energetic analysis of the measured wind velocity courses. A detailed algorithm of the WT-FESS with the power grid system was developed, eliminating short-term breaks in the turbine operation and periods when the wind turbine power was below the assumed level. PMID:25215326

  4. Sensitivity of Southern Ocean overturning to wind stress changes: Role of surface restoring time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhai, Xiaoming; Munday, David R.

    2014-12-01

    The influence of different surface restoring time scales on the response of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation to wind stress changes is investigated using an idealised channel model. Regardless of the restoring time scales chosen, the eddy-induced meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is found to compensate for changes of the direct wind-driven Eulerian-mean MOC, rendering the residual MOC less sensitive to wind stress changes. However, the extent of this compensation depends strongly on the restoring time scale: residual MOC sensitivity increases with decreasing restoring time scale. Strong surface restoring is shown to limit the ability of the eddy-induced MOC to change in response to wind stress changes and as such suppresses the eddy compensation effect. These model results are consistent with qualitative arguments derived from residual-mean theory and may have important implications for interpreting past and future observations.

  5. Evaluation of High-Resolution Ocean Surface Vector Winds Measured by QuikSCAT Scatterometer in Coastal Regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Wenqing; Liu, W. Timothy; Stiles, Bryan W.

    2004-01-01

    The SeaWinds scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT covers approximately 90% of the global ocean under clear and cloudy condition in 24 h, and the standard data product has 25-km spatial resolution. Such spatial resolution is not sufficient to resolve small-scale processes, especially in coastal oceans. Based on range-compressed normalized backscatter and a modified wind retrieval algorithm, a coastal wind dataset at 12.5-km resolution was produced. Even with larger error, the high-resolution winds, in medium to high strength, would still be useful over coastal ocean. Using measurements from moored buoys from the National Buoy Data Center, the high-resolution QuikSCAT wind data are found to have similar accuracy as standard data in the open ocean. The accuracy of both high- and standard-resolution winds, particularly in wind directions, is found to degrade near shore. The increase in error is likely caused by the inadequacy of the geophysical model function/ambiguity removal scheme in addressing coastal conditions and light winds situations. The modified algorithm helps to bring the directional accuracy of the high-resolution winds to the accuracy of the standard-resolution winds in near-shore regions, particularly in the nadir and far zones across the satellite track.

  6. Supervised change detection in VHR images using contextual information and support vector machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volpi, Michele; Tuia, Devis; Bovolo, Francesca; Kanevski, Mikhail; Bruzzone, Lorenzo

    2013-02-01

    In this paper we study an effective solution to deal with supervised change detection in very high geometrical resolution (VHR) images. High within-class variance as well as low between-class variance that characterize this kind of imagery make the detection and classification of ground cover transitions a difficult task. In order to achieve high detection accuracy, we propose the inclusion of spatial and contextual information issued from local textural statistics and mathematical morphology. To perform change detection, two architectures, initially developed for medium resolution images, are adapted for VHR: Direct Multi-date Classification and Difference Image Analysis. To cope with the high intra-class variability, we adopted a nonlinear classifier: the Support Vector Machines (SVM). The proposed approaches are successfully evaluated on two series of pansharpened QuickBird images.

  7. Projecting Wind Energy Potential Under Climate Change with Ensemble of Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A.; Shashikanth, K.; Ghosh, S.; Mukherjee, P. P.

    2013-12-01

    Recent years have witnessed an increasing global concern over energy sustainability and security, triggered by a number of issues, such as (though not limited to): fossil fuel depletion, energy resource geopolitics, economic efficiency versus population growth debate, environmental concerns and climate change. Wind energy is a renewable and sustainable form of energy in which wind turbines convert the kinetic energy of wind into electrical energy. Global warming and differential surface heating may significantly impact the wind velocity and hence the wind energy potential. Sustainable design of wind mills requires understanding the impacts of climate change on wind energy potential, which we evaluate here with multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs simulate the climate variables globally considering the greenhouse emission scenarios provided as Representation Concentration path ways (RCPs). Here we use new generation climate model outputs obtained from Coupled model Intercomparison Project 5(CMIP5). We first compute the wind energy potential with reanalysis data (NCEP/ NCAR), at a spatial resolution of 2.50, where the gridded data is fitted to Weibull distribution and with the Weibull parameters, the wind energy densities are computed at different grids. The same methodology is then used, to CMIP5 outputs (resultant of U-wind and V-wind) of MRI, CMCC, BCC, CanESM, and INMCM4 for historical runs. This is performed separately for four seasons globally, MAM, JJA, SON and DJF. We observe the muti-model average of wind energy density for historic period has significant bias with respect to that of reanalysis product. Here we develop a quantile based superensemble approach where GCM quantiles corresponding to selected CDF values are regressed to reanalysis data. It is observed that this regression approach takes care of both, bias in GCMs and combination of GCMs. With superensemble, we observe that the historical wind energy density resembles quite well with reanalysis/ observed output. We apply the same for future under RCP scenarios. We observe spatially and temporally varying global change of wind energy density. The underlying assumption is that the regression relationship will also hold good for future. The results highlight the needs to change the design standards of wind mills at different locations, considering climate change and at the same time the requirement of height modifications for existing mills to produce same energy in future.

  8. Environmental change and water-related, vector borne diseases in eastern Africa: the HEALTHY FUTURES project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, David; Kienberger, Stefan; Tompkins, Adrian

    2015-04-01

    Pathogens that spend time outside the human body, and any organisms involved in their transmission, have particular ecological requirements; as environment, including climate, conditions change, then the transmission characteristics of associated pathogens - and the diseases caused - are also likely to vary. Relationships between environment and health in many parts of the world remain poorly studied and are often overlooked, however. This is particularly the case in developing countries, because of budgetary and available expertise constraints. Moreover the relationship is often confounded by other factors. These other factors contribute to human vulnerability, and thus to the overall disease risk due to environmental change. This presentation will highlight the importance of environmental, including climate, change information to a better understanding of the risks to health of projected future environmental changes, and to the more efficient and effective use of scarce health resources in the developing world. The paper will focus on eastern Africa, and in particular the health effects of future projected environmental change impacts on water-related, vector borne diseases in the East African Community region. Moreover the paper will highlight how the EU FP7-funded project HEALTHY FUTURES is, through a broadly-based, integrative approach that distinguishes environmental change-induced health hazard from health risk aims to support the health decisions making process, thereby attempting to help mitigate negative health impacts.

  9. An appraisal of the full geomagnetic vector in wind-blown sediments - does it have a future? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravchinsky, V. A.

    2013-12-01

    Recent progress in the relative paleointensity (RPI) studies of the loess and paleosol deposits of China demonstrate the applicability of the technique in some sections. The PRI record of the Lingtai section (Pan et al., 2001) is mostly comparable to the reference curves of Valet et al. (2005) and Channel et al. (2009). Climate driven chemical alterations of remnant magnetization signal is additionally suggested as an explanation to the intervals of dissimilarities. The newest results of Yang et al. (2012) reveal more complex situations. At the Baoji section, where pedogenesis is relatively weak, the RPI results might possibly suggest a reflection of global paleointensity variations. The record from the Xifeng section, where pedogenesis is stronger, does not reveal any interpretable results. Studies of the Luochuan section suggest that chemical remnant magnetization is strongly linked to the pedogenesis process implying serious constrains on the interpretation of the high resolution paleomagnetic records from the paleosol and the underlying loess intervals (Liu and Zhang, 2013). At the same time, recent paleomagnetic and mineral magnetic investigations indicate that the Alaskan loess is an excellent geomagnetic direction recorder in the upper Matuyama and Brunhes epoch (Evans et al., 2011). The fine structure of the geomagnetic field can be accurately evaluated for the intervals, which are reliably dated with modern techniques (Jensen, 2013). The strong magnetic signal carried by magnetite from the igneous rock sources overwrites complexities caused by the pedogenesis process, therefore our newly obtained Alaskan geomagnetic record is the first candidate for both reliable paleointensity data set from the wind-blown sediments and the fine structure of the full geoomagnetic vector (inclination, declination, RPI). High resolution geochronology and high latitude position of the Alaskan loess help resolving the fine features of the geomagnetic excursions which are present in the record. Example of the Alaska loess magnetic record (Gold Hill section) to illustrate the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary interval. Lithological column darker layers represent soils. Inclination, declination, normalized RPI parameters are compared to SINT-2000 (Valet et al., 2005). Inclination and declination are from Evans et al. (2011); lithological column is from Jensen et al. (2011).

  10. Evaluation of wind vectors observed by HY-2A scatterometer using ocean buoy observations, ASCAT measurements, and numerical model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dawei; Shen, Hui

    2015-09-01

    The first Chinese microwave ocean environment satellite HY-2A was launched successfully in August, 2011. This study presents a quality assessment of HY-2A scatterometer (HYSCAT) data based on comparison with ocean buoy data, the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) data, and numerical model data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The in-situ observations include those from buoy arrays operated by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project. Only buoys located offshore and in deep water were analyzed. The temporal and spatial collocation windows between HYSCAT data and buoy observations were 30 min and 25 km, respectively. The comparisons showed that the wind speeds and directions observed by HYSCAT agree well with the buoy data. The root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) of wind speed and direction for the HYSCAT standard wind products are 1.90 m/s and 22.80°, respectively. For the HYSCAT-ASCAT comparison, the temporal and spatial differences were limited to 1 h and 25 km, respectively. This comparison yielded RMSEs of 1.68 m/s for wind speed and 19.1° for wind direction. We also compared HYSCAT winds with reanalysis data from NCEP. The results show that the RMSEs of wind speed and direction are 2.6 m/s and 26°, respectively. The global distribution of wind speed residuals (HYSCAT-NCEP) is also presented here for evaluation of the HYSCAT-retrieved wind field globally. Considering the large temporal and spatial differences of the collocated data, it is concluded that the HYSCAT-retrieved wind speed and direction met the mission requirements, which were 2 m/s and 20° for wind speeds in the range 2-24 m/s. These encouraging assessment results show that the wind data obtained from HYSCAT will be useful for the scientific community.

  11. Sharp Changes of Solar Wind Ion Flux and Density Within and Outside Current Sheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarova, O.; Zastenker, G.

    2011-05-01

    Analysis of the Interball-1 spacecraft data (1995 - 2000) has shown that the solar wind ion flux sometimes increases or decreases abruptly by more than 20% over a time period of several seconds or minutes. Typically, the amplitude of such sharp changes in the solar wind ion flux (SCIFs) is larger than 0.5×108 cm-2 s-1. These sudden changes of the ion flux were also observed by the Solar Wind Experiment (SWE), on board the Wind spacecraft, as the solar wind density increases and decreases with negligible changes in the solar wind velocity. SCIFs occur irregularly at 1 AU, when plasma flows with specific properties come to the Earth's orbit. SCIFs are usually observed in slow, turbulent solar wind with increased density and interplanetary magnetic field strength. The number of times SCIFs occur during a day is simulated using the solar wind density, magnetic field, and their standard deviations as input parameters for a period of five years. A correlation coefficient of ˜0.7 is obtained between the modelled and the experimental data. It is found that SCIFs are not associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), corotating interaction regions (CIRs), or interplanetary shocks; however, 85% of the sector boundaries are surrounded by SCIFs. The properties of the solar wind plasma for days with five or more SCIF observations are the same as those of the solar wind plasma at the sector boundaries. One possible explanation for the occurrence of SCIFs (near sector boundaries) is magnetic reconnection at the heliospheric current sheet or local current sheets. Other probable causes of SCIFs (inside sectors) are turbulent processes in the slow solar wind and at the crossings of flux tubes.

  12. Scatterometer Ocean Surface Winds Provide Observational Evidence for Changes in the Hadley Cell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Haddad, Z.; Rodriguez, E.; Stiles, B. W.; Turk, F. J.; Seo, E.

    2012-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that the tropics have expanded over the last few decades by a very rough 1 degree per decade. This is considered to be an atmospheric response to the observed tropical ocean warming trend (e.g. Quan et al., 2004). If continued, the expansion of the tropics (the Hadley cell) could have a substantial impact on water resources and the ecology of the sub-tropics. Until now, the understanding of the mechanisms that govern the changing width of the tropics has been confined to models and proxies (e.g. Johanson and Fu, 2009; Hu and Fu 2007 (OLR); Lu et al. 2007 (precipitation /evaporation estimates) because of the unavailability of systematic observations of the large-scale circulation. Ocean surface vector winds, derived from scatterometer observations, provide for the first time an accurate depiction of the large-scale circulation and allow the study of the Hadley cell evolution through analysis of its surface branch. The launch of NASA's QuikSCAT in 1999 marked the beginning of routine global observations of the surface winds and provided a consistent 10-year record. The launches of ASCAT on METOP in 2006 and the ISRO's OceanSAT-2 in 2010 will assure the continuation of the climate data record of near-surface winds over the oceans. In this study we use the observations from QuikSCAT. We determine the extent of the Hadley cell as defined by the subtropical zero-crossing of the zonally-averaged zonal wind component (the separation between the midlatitude westerlies and the easterly winds in the tropics). We study the time series of 1-year running averages, 260 in total and offset from each other by two weeks. Our preliminary studies revealed a couple of interesting results: - The first half of the 10-year record shows two distinct cycles in the width of the Hadley cell while the later part of the record shows a steady increase in that width, as has been shown by others. The magnitude of the width-increase is very close to what has been reported by others (~1 deg/decade, both south and north, for a total of about 2 deg/decade). - The two cycles in the 1999-2004 time period are likely a reflection of the modulation of the Hadley cell by the La Nina(1999)/El Nino (2002) events that dominated this period - Segregating the data by ocean basins show rather different evolution of the Pacific Hadley cell versus that in the Atlantic. - Analyzing the time series of 3-month running averages reveals the seasonal variation of the extent and the width of the Hadley cell. It indicates a trend for pole-ward expansion of the northern Hadley cell branch during the boreal winter. This result is consistent with an earlier finding by Quan et al. (2004) that the winter Hadley cell has been increasing in intensity since 1950. Next, we look into a more detailed analysis to relate these preliminary findings to a more in-depth investigation of the relation between the Hadley cell strength and the El Nino/ La Nina episodes. In the future we will relate the scatterometer-defined Hadley cell characteristics and tendencies to such from precipitation observations.

  13. 20% Wind Energy - Diversifying Our Energy Portfolio and Addressing Climate Change (Brochure)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2008-05-01

    This brochure describes the R&D efforts needed for wind energy to meet 20% of the U.S. electrical demand by 2030. In May 2008, DOE published its report, 20% Wind Energy by 2030, which presents an in-depth analysis of the potential for wind energy in the United States and outlines a potential scenario to boost wind electric generation from its current production of 16.8 gigawatts (GW) to 304 GW by 2030. According to the report, achieving 20% wind energy by 2030 could help address climate change by reducing electric sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 825 million metric tons (20% of the electric utility sector CO2 emissions if no new wind is installed by 2030), and it will enhance our nation's energy security by diversifying our electricity portfolio as wind energy is an indigenous energy source with stable prices not subject to fuel volatility. According to the report, increasing our nation's wind generation could also boost local rural economies and contribute to significant growth in manufacturing and the industry supply chain. Rural economies will benefit from a substantial increase in land use payments, tax benefits and the number of well-paying jobs created by the wind energy manufacturing, construction, and maintenance industries. Although the initial capital costs of implementing the 20% wind scenario would be higher than other generation sources, according to the report, wind energy offers lower ongoing energy costs than conventional generation power plants for operations, maintenance, and fuel. The 20% scenario could require an incremental investment of as little as $43 billion (net present value) more than a base-case no new wind scenario. This would represent less than 0.06 cent (6 one-hundredths of 1 cent) per kilowatt-hour of total generation by 2030, or roughly 50 cents per month per household. The report concludes that while achieving the 20% wind scenario is technically achievable, it will require enhanced transmission infrastructure, streamlined siting and permitting regimes, improved reliability and operability of wind systems, and increased U.S. wind manufacturing capacity. To meet these challenges, the DOE Wind Energy Program will continue to work with industry partners to increase wind energy system reliability and operability and improve manufacturing processes. The program also conducts research to address transmission and grid integration issues, to better understand wind resources, to mitigate siting and environmental issues, to provide information to industry stakeholders and policy makers, and to educate the future generations.

  14. Metabolic changes in rat urine after acute paraquat poisoning and discriminated by support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Wen, Congcong; Wang, Zhiyi; Zhang, Meiling; Wang, Shuanghu; Geng, Peiwu; Sun, Fa; Chen, Mengchun; Lin, Guanyang; Hu, Lufeng; Ma, Jianshe; Wang, Xianqin

    2016-01-01

    Paraquat is quick-acting and non-selective, killing green plant tissue on contact; it is also toxic to human beings and animals. In this study, we developed a urine metabonomic method by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to evaluate the effect of acute paraquat poisoning on rats. Pattern recognition analysis, including both partial least squares discriminate analysis and principal component analysis revealed that acute paraquat poisoning induced metabolic perturbations. Compared with the control group, the levels of benzeneacetic acid and hexadecanoic acid of the acute paraquat poisoning group (intragastric administration 36 mg/kg) increased, while the levels of butanedioic acid, pentanedioic acid, altronic acid decreased. Based on these urinary metabolomics data, support vector machine was applied to discriminate the metabolomic change of paraquat groups from the control group, which achieved 100% classification accuracy. In conclusion, metabonomic method combined with support vector machine can be used as a useful diagnostic tool in paraquat-poisoned rats. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26419410

  15. Wind-tunnel investigation of the powered low-speed longitudinal aerodynamics of the Vectored-Engine-Over (VEO) wing fighter configuration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paulson, J. W.; Whitten, P. D.; Stumpfl, S. C.

    1982-01-01

    A wind-tunnel investigation incorporating both static and wind-on testing was conducted in the Langley 4- by 7-Meter Tunnel to determine the effects of vectored thrust along with spanwise blowing on the low-speed aerodynamics of an advanced fighter configuration. Data were obtained over a large range of thrust coefficients corresponding to takeoff and landing thrust settings for many nozzle configurations. The complete set of static thrust data and the complete set of longitudinal aerodynamic data obtained in the investigation are presented. These data are intended for reference purposes and, therefore, are presented without analysis or comment. The analysis of the thrust-induced effects found in the investigation are not discussed.

  16. Future changes to the Indonesian Throughflow and Pacific circulation: The differing role of wind and deep circulation changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sen Gupta, Alex; McGregor, Shayne; Sebille, Erik; Ganachaud, Alexandre; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Santoso, Agus

    2016-02-01

    Climate models consistently project a substantial decrease in the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. On interannual timescales ITF changes are largely related to tropical Pacific wind variability. However, on the multidecadal timescales investigated here we demonstrate that regional winds and associated changes in the upper ocean circulation cannot explain the projected ITF decrease. Instead, the decrease is related to a weakening in the northward flow of deep waters entering the Pacific basin at ~40°S and an associated reduction in the net basin-wide upwelling to the north of the southern tip of Australia. This can be traced back to consistent changes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean overturning, although questions still remain as to the ultimate drivers. In contrast to the ITF decrease, substantial projected changes to the upper ocean circulation of the Pacific basin are well explained by robust changes in the surface winds.

  17. Integrated data processing of remotely sensed and vector data for building change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofina, N.; Ehlers, M.; Michel, U.

    2012-10-01

    In recent years natural disasters have had an increasing impact leading to tremendous economic and human losses. Remote sensing technologies are being used more often for rapid detection and visualization of changes in the affected areas, providing essential information for damage assessment, planning and coordination of recovery activities. This study presents a GIS-based approach for the detection of damaged buildings. The methodology is based on the integrated analysis of vector data containing information about the original urban layout and remotely sensed images obtained after a catastrophic event. For the classification of building integrity a new `Detected Part of Contour' (DPC) feature was developed. The DPC feature defines a part of the building contour that can be detected in the related remotely sensed image. It reaches maximum value (100%) if the investigated building contour is intact. Next, several features based on the analysis of textural information of the remotely sensed image are considered. Finally, a binary classification of building conditions concludes the change detection analysis. The proposed method was applied to the 2010 earthquake in Qinghai (China). The results indicate that a GIS-based analysis can markedly improve the accuracy of change detection analysis. The proposed methodology has been developed solely within the Open Source Software environment (GRASS GIS, Python, Orange). The employment of Open Source Software provides the way for an innovative, flexible and costeffective implementation of change detection operations.

  18. Wind transport near the poles of Mars: Timescales of changes in deposition and erosion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, Peter C.

    1992-01-01

    Movement of sediment into and out of polar deposits is closely linked to the polar volatile budget and to changes in wind systems over the course of astronomically induced climate cycles. The present observations of the morphology of polar layered deposits, mantling sediments, dune fields, and variable surface features are the basis of inferences on the efficacy of polar sediment transport mechanisms. The time scales of formation of these features vary from days to perhaps 10(exp 6) yr, and latitudinal banding of dune fields near the poles may have been formed on timescales of 10(exp 7) yr. Orientations of intracrater dunes, dune crests, and wind streaks have been measured for latitudes -45 to -90 to compare features of likely different timescales of formation with models of wind flow from the south polar region. There is a complex variation with latitude of the indicated wind directions and of the efficacy of the resultant winds in orienting dune fields that suggests influence of frost cover on the ability of winds to move sediment in the spring and fall. Because of changes in the relative effectiveness of spring and fall winds expected with progression of the season of perihelion, the latitudinal variation in transport efficiency may mean that sediments at different latitudes dominantly respond to wind erosion and transport at different times during the perihelion cycle.

  19. Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Lindsay P; Luther, Caylor; Moo-Llanes, David; Ramsey, Janine M; Danis-Lozano, Rogelio; Peterson, A Townsend

    2015-04-01

    Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which--given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species--are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete. PMID:25688023

  20. Effect of sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes at subauroral latitudes: Change in magnetic field

    SciTech Connect

    Le, G.; Russell, C.T.; Petrinec, S.M.; Ginskey, M. )

    1993-03-01

    The observations obtained during the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) from the magnetometers of the IGS network extending from Cambridge, England, to Tromso, Norway, are used to study the response of subauroral current systems to sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure. Observations show that the response is very strong at subauroral latitudes. The preliminary response in the H component is a brief, small increase in the dayside moring sector and a decrease in the afternoon and night sectors. The main response in the horizontal field (the H and D components) is toward the pole except in the dayside morning sector. The inferred ionospheric current is mainly a circulatory system flowing counterclockwise when viewed form the north pole everywhere at subauroral latitudes except the dayside morning sector. 29 refs., 12 figs.

  1. Effect of sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes at subauroral latitudes - Change in magnetic field

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Le, G.; Russell, C. T.; Petrinec, S. M.; Ginskey, M.

    1993-01-01

    The observations obtained during the International Magnetospheric Study (IMS) from the magnetometers of the IGS network extending from Cambridge, England, to Tromso, Norway, are used to study the response of subauroral current systems to sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure. Observations show that the response is very strong at subauroral latitudes. The preliminary response in the H component is a brief, small increase in the dayside morning sector and a decrease in the aftenoon and night sectors. The main response in the horizontal field (the H and D components) is toward the pole except in the dayside morning sector. The inferred ionospheric current is mainly a circulatory system flowing counterclockwise when viewed from the north pole everywhere at subauroral latitudes except the dayside morning sector.

  2. Seasonal changes in the apparent position of the Sun as elementary applications of vector operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levine, Jonathan

    2014-11-01

    Many introductory courses in physics face an unpleasant chicken-and-egg problem. One might choose to introduce students to physical quantities such as velocity, acceleration, and momentum in over-simplified one-dimensional applications before introducing vectors and their manipulation; or one might first introduce vectors as mathematical objects and defer demonstration of their physical utility. This paper offers a solution to this pedagogical problem: elementary vector operations can be used without mechanics concepts to understand variations in the solar latitude, duration of daylight, and orientation of the rising and setting Sun. I show how sunrise and sunset phenomena lend themselves to exercises with scalar products, vector products, unit vectors, and vector projections that can be useful for introducing vector analysis in the context of physics.

  3. ERS-1 scatterometer calibration and validation activities at ECMWF. B: From radar backscatter characteristics to wind vector solutions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoffelen, AD; Anderson, David L. T.; Woiceshyn, Peter M.

    1992-01-01

    Calibration and validation activities for the ERS-1 scatterometer were carried out at ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast) complementary to the 'Haltenbanken' field campaign off the coast of Norway. At a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) center a wealth of verifying data is available both in time and space. This data is used to redefine the wind retrieval procedure given the instrumental characteristics. It was found that a maximum likelihood estimation procedure to obtain the coefficients of a reformulated sigma deg to wind relationship should use radar measurements in logarithmic rather than physical space, and use winds as the wind components rather than wind speed and direction. Doing this, a much more accurate transfer function than the one currently operated by ESA was derived. Sigma deg measurement space shows no signature of a separation in an upwind solution cone and a downwind solution cone. As such signature was anticipated in ESA's wind direction ambiguity removal algorithm, reconsideration of the procedure is necessary. Despite the fact that revisions have to be made in the process of wind retrieval; a grid potential is shown for scatterometry in meteorology and climatology.

  4. Modelling potential changes in marine biogeochemistry due to large-scale offshore wind farms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Molen, Johan; Rees, Jon; Limpenny, Sian

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale renewable energy generation by offshore wind farms may lead to changes in marine ecosystem processes through the following mechanism: 1) wind-energy extraction leads to a reduction in local surface wind speeds; 2) these lead to a reduction in the local wind wave height; 3) as a consequence there's a reduction in SPM resuspension and concentrations; 4) this results in an improvement in under-water light regime, which 5) may lead to increased primary production, which subsequently 6) cascades through the ecosystem. A three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model (GETM_ERSEM) was used to investigate this process for a hypothetical wind farm in the central North Sea, by running a reference scenario and a scenario with a 10% reduction (as was found in a case study of a small farm in Danish waters) in surface wind velocities in the area of the wind farm. The ERSEM model included both pelagic and benthic processes. The results showed that, within the farm area, the physical mechanisms were as expected, but with variations in the magnitude of the response depending on the ecosystem variable or exchange rate between two ecosystem variables (3-28%, depending on variable/rate). Benthic variables tended to be more sensitive to the changes than pelagic variables. Reduced, but noticeable changes also occurred for some variables in a region of up to two farm diameters surrounding the wind farm. An additional model run in which the 10% reduction in surface wind speed was applied only for wind speeds below the generally used threshold of 25 m/s for operational shut-down showed only minor differences from the run in which all wind speeds were reduced. These first results indicate that there is potential for measurable effects of large-scale offshore wind farms on the marine ecosystem, mainly within the farm but for some variables up to two farm diameters away. However, the wave and SPM parameterisations currently used in the model are crude and need to be further tested and refined. Also, potential counter-acting processes such as possible increases in SPM concentrations due to turbulence generated by the wind-turbine foundations may need to be included for more accurate simulations. Moreover, it is unclear to what extent these results would be valid for areas where different hydrodynamic characteristics may predominate, e.g. with summer stratification or strong tidal currents. Finally, an assessment would need to be carried out of how beneficial or detrimental these potential changes might be from various social-economic and ecosystem-management points of view.

  5. Urban landscape change analysis using satellite imagery and support vector machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Hongmei

    2009-10-01

    We used a change detection approach based on support vector machine (SVM) to analyze two remotely sensed images in order to analyze urban landscape change on high-dense urban use (HDU), medium-dense urban use (MDU) and low-dense urban use (LDU) in Kunming, China. These two images were subset of a TM image acquired on 16 August 1992 and an ETM+ image acquired on 2 November 2000, respectively. First, we used SVM to classify each subset into HDU, MDU, and LDU. Then, we compared the label values of classified data pixel by pixel to analyze urban landscape changes. In order to obtain high quality training data under the circumstance that existing classification products of sampling area were not available, we proposed a second sampling method to assure obtaining satisfactory training data. The kernel function of SVM was radial basis function (RBF). Optimal model with the best penalty parameter C and the kernel parameter gamma was obtained through training samples. We tested the approach in three sites: northern Kunming, southern Kunming and entire Kunming. Results indicate that the overall urban use has substantially increased during 1992- 2000, while the substantial growth in high-density urban use was achieved at the cost of low-density urban use and partially medium- density urban use.

  6. SeaWinds Scatterometer Wind Vector Retrievals Within Hurricanes Using AMSR and NEXRAD to Perform Corrections for Precipitation Effects: Comparison of AMSR and NEXRAD Retrievals of Rain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weissman, David E.; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla; Callahan, Philip

    2006-01-01

    The opportunity provided by satellite scatterometers to measure ocean surface winds in strong storms and hurricanes is diminished by the errors in the received backscatter (SIGMA-0) caused by the attenuation, scattering and surface roughening produced by heavy rain. Providing a good rain correction is a very challenging problem, particularly at Ku band (13.4 GHz) where rain effects are strong. Corrections to the scatterometer measurements of ocean surface winds can be pursued with either of two different methods: empirical or physical modeling. The latter method is employed in this study because of the availability of near simultaneous and collocated measurements provided by the MIDORI-II suite of instruments. The AMSR was designed to measure atmospheric water-related parameters on a spatial scale comparable to the SeaWinds scatterometer. These quantities can be converted into volumetric attenuation and scattering at the Ku-band frequency of SeaWinds. Optimal estimates of the volume backscatter and attenuation require a knowledge of the three dimensional distribution of reflectivity on a scale comparable to that of the precipitation. Studies selected near the US coastline enable the much higher resolution NEXRAD reflectivity measurements evaluate the AMSR estimates. We are also conducting research into the effects of different beam geometries and nonuniform beamfilling of precipitation within the field-of-view of the AMSR and the scatterometer. Furthermore, both AMSR and NEXRAD estimates of atmospheric correction can be used to produce corrected SIGMA-0s, which are then input to the JPL wind retrieval algorithm.

  7. Cytoplasmic pH dynamics in maize pulvinal cells induced by gravity vector changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johannes, E.; Collings, D. A.; Rink, J. C.; Allen, N. S.; Brown, C. S. (Principal Investigator)

    2001-01-01

    In maize (Zea mays) and other grasses, changes in orientation of stems are perceived by pulvinal tissue, which responds to the stimulus by differential growth resulting in upward bending of the stem. The amyloplast-containing bundle sheath cells are the sites of gravity perception, although the initial steps of gravity perception and transmission remain unclear. In columella cells of Arabidopsis roots, we previously found that cytoplasmic pH (pH(c)) is a mediator in early gravitropic signaling (A.C. Scott, N.S. Allen [1999] Plant Physiol 121: 1291-1298). The question arises whether pH(c) has a more general role in signaling gravity vector changes. Using confocal ratiometric imaging and the fluorescent pH indicator carboxy seminaphtorhodafluor acetoxymethyl ester acetate, we measured pH(c) in the cells composing the maize pulvinus. When stem slices were gravistimulated and imaged on a horizontally mounted confocal microscope, pH(c) changes were only apparent within the bundle sheath cells, and not in the parenchyma cells. After turning, cytoplasmic acidification was observed at the sides of the cells, whereas the cytoplasm at the base of the cells where plastids slowly accumulated became more basic. These changes were most apparent in cells exhibiting net amyloplast sedimentation. Parenchyma cells and isolated bundle sheath cells did not show any gravity-induced pH(c) changes although all cell types responded to external stimuli in the predicted way: Propionic acid and auxin treatments induced acidification, whereas raising the external pH caused alkalinization. The results suggest that pH(c) has an important role in the early signaling pathways of maize stem gravitropism.

  8. Change detection for updates of vector database through region-based classification of VHR satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carleer, Alexandre P.; Wolff, Eléonore

    2007-10-01

    Until now, interpretation of aerial photographs is a standard tool for monitoring land cover change where fine spatial resolutions are required and this task is expensive and time-consuming. Though, from a spaceborne perspective, the VHR satellite data are, since 1999, capable to meet the mapping and monitoring needs of municipal and regional planning agencies. Indeed, these data from the sensors Ikonos, QuickBird, OrbView-3, and in near future, the Pléiades- HR French sensors, have spatial resolution lower than 5 m in multispectral mode and lower than 1 m in panchromatic mode. These new sources of data combine the advantages of satellite data (synoptic view, digital format suitable for computer processing, quantitative land surface information at large spatial coverage and at frequent temporal intervals ...) with the very high spatial resolution. In spite of these advantages, the use of VHR satellite data involves some problems in traditional per-pixel classification often used in change detection techniques. There are still two occurring classification problems that can strongly deteriorate the result of a per-pixel classification of the VHR satellite data: spectral variability and poor spectral resolution. A solution to overcome these problems is the region-based classification that can be integrated in the common change detection techniques. The segmentation, before classification, produces regions which are more homogeneous in themselves than with nearby regions and represent discrete objects or areas in the image. Each image region then becomes a unit analysis and makes it possible to avoid much of the structural clutter. Image segmentation provides a logical transition from the units of pixels to larger units in maps more relevant to detect the changes in these. In this context, this research project suggests to use region based classification of VHR satellite data in the change detection processe for updates of vector database.

  9. Sharp changes of solar wind density as a possible sign of magnetic reconnection at current sheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khabarova, Olga; Zastenker, Georgy

    Sharp changes of solar wind plasma density (or sharp changes of ion flux -SCIFs) were initially observed near the Earth by Interball-1 spacecraft and then confirmed through analyses of WIND SWE data. Abrupt density increases and decreases (in several times per several minutes or even seconds) happen, on the average, several times per day, and they are not associated with CME, CIR or interplanetary shocks. Case study and statistical investigations show that SCIFs are usually observed in slow solar wind with increased density, interplanetary magnetic field and high plasma variability. Modeling of SCIFs daily number (according to Interball-1 data for 5 years) gives the accuracy ˜70% under using OMNI2 solar wind density, magnetic field and their standard deviations as modeling parameters. It shows a nonrandomness of the combined influence of the specified parameters on propagation (or birth) of sharp small-scale boundaries in solar wind. The overwhelming majority (90%) of sector boundaries (heliospheric current sheet -HCS) contain studied jumps of density. It means that some processes at the heliospheric current sheet drive to appearance and propagation of sharp changes of solar wind density. The most possible explanation of this phenomenon is magnetic reconnection at X-line (nil-line) of the current sheet. SCIFs outside sector boundaries are mainly observed at the HCS-like plasma conditions. Sharp density changes in solar wind far from HCS could be associated with plasma tubes boundaries or small-scale current sheets of solar origination. We assume magnetic reconnection at current sheets could play a key role in abrupt solar wind density changes generating.

  10. Mars Pathfinder Landing Site: Evidence for a Change in Wind Regime from Lander and Orbiter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, Ronald; Kraft, Michael D.; Kuzmin, Ruslan O.; Bridges, Nathan T.

    2000-01-01

    Surface features related to the wind are observed in the vicinity of the Mars Pathfinder (MPR landing site data from the lander and in data from orbit by the Viking Orbiter and Mars Global Surveyor missions. Features seen from the surface include wind tails associated with small rocks, barchanoid duneforms, ripplelike patterns, and ventifact flutes cut into some rocks. Features seen from orbit include wind tails associated with impact craters, ridges inferred to be duneforms, and modified crater rims interpreted to have been eroded and mantled by windblown material. The orientations of these features show two prevailing directions. One is inferred to represent winds from the northeast, which is consistent with strongest winds predicted by a general circulation model to occur during the Martian northern winter under current conditions. A second wind blowing from the ESE was responsible for modifying the crater rims and cutting some of the ventifacts. The two wind regimes could reflect a change in climate related to Mars' obliquity or some other, unknown factor. Regardless of the cause, the MPF area has been subjected to a complex pattern of winds and supply of small particles, and the original surface formed by sedimentary processes from Tiu and Ares Vallis flooding events has been modified by repeated burial and exhumation.

  11. DOE SBIR Phase II Final Technical Report - Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

    SciTech Connect

    Whiteman, Cameron; Capps, Scott

    2014-11-05

    Specialized Vertum Partners software tools were prototyped, tested and commercialized to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess the uncertainties of climate change on wind power production and distribution. This project resulted in three commercially proven products and a marketing tool. The first was a Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) based resource evaluation system. The second was a web-based service providing global 10m wind data from multiple sources to wind industry subscription customers. The third product addressed the needs of our utility clients looking at climate change effects on electricity distribution. For this we collaborated on the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi), which was released publicly last quarter. Finally to promote these products and educate potential users we released “Gust or Bust”, a graphic-novel styled marketing publication.

  12. Features of the global geomagnetic pulsations caused by changes of solar wind dynamic pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishin, Vladimir; Klebanova, Yuliya; Battuulai, Tsegmed

    We research global long period geomagnetic pulsations in the Pc5 range, caused by pulse and quasi periodic changes of solar wind pressure in magnetic quiet time. On the basis of data of several meridian chains of stations speed of propagation of pulsations along a terrestrial surface from midday to the night side, and also ratio of pulsations spectrum to fluctuations of solar wind pressure are investigated. The opportunity of the generation of forced and resonant fluctuations in magnetosphere by fluctuations of solar wind pressure, and also the possible contribution of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at the magnetopause is analyzed.

  13. Limited change in dune mobility in response to a large decrease in wind power in semi-arid northern China since the 1970s

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mason, J.A.; Swinehart, J.B.; Lu, H.; Miao, X.; Cha, P.; Zhou, Y.

    2008-01-01

    The climatic controls on dune mobility, especially the relative importance of wind strength, remain incompletely understood. This is a key research problem in semi-arid northern China, both for interpreting past dune activity as evidence of paleoclimate and for predicting future environmental change. Potential eolian sand transport, which is approximately proportional to wind power above the threshold for sand entrainment, has decreased across much of northern China since the 1970s. Over the same period, effective moisture (ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) has not changed significantly. This "natural experiment" provides insight on the relative importance of wind power as a control on dune mobility in three dunefields of northern China (Mu Us, Otindag, and Horqin), although poorly understood and potentially large effects of human land use complicate interpretation. Dune forms in these three regions are consistent with sand transport vectors inferred from weather station data, suggesting that wind directions have remained stable and the stations adequately represent winds that shaped the dunes. The predicted effect of weaker winds since the 1970s would be dune stabilization, with lower sand transport rates allowing vegetation cover to expand. Large portions of all three dunefields remained stabilized by vegetation in the 1970s despite high wind power. Since the 1970s, trends in remotely sensed vegetation greenness and change in mobile dune area inferred from sequential Landsat images do indicate widespread dune stabilization in the eastern Mu Us region. On the other hand, expansion of active dunes took place farther west in the Mu Us dunefield and especially in the central Otindag dunefield, with little overall change in two parts of the Horqin dunes. Better ground truth is needed to validate the remote sensing analyses, but results presented here place limits on the relative importance of wind strength as a control on dune mobility in the study areas. High wind power alone does not completely destabilize these dunes. A large decrease in wind power either has little short-term effect on the dunes, or more likely its effect is sufficiently small that it is obscured by human impacts on dune stability in many parts of the study areas. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Calcium mobilizations in response to changes in the gravity vector in Arabidopsis seedlings

    PubMed Central

    Tatsumi, Hitoshi; Toyota, Masatsugu; Furuichi, Takuya; Sokabe, Masahiro

    2014-01-01

    Gravity influences the growth direction of higher plants. Changes in the gravity vector (gravistimulation) immediately promote the increase in the cytoplasmic free calcium ion concentration ([Ca2+]c) in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedlings. When the seedlings are gravistimulated by reorientation at 180°, a transient two peaked (biphasic) [Ca2+]c-increase arises in their hypocotyl and petioles. Parabolic flights (PFs) can generate a variety of gravity-stimuli, and enables us to measure gravity-induced [Ca2+]c-increases without specimen rotation, which demonstrate that Arabidopsis seedlings possess a rapid gravity-sensing mechanism linearly transducing a wide range of gravitational changes into Ca2+ signals on a sub-second timescale. Hypergravity by centrifugation (20 g or 300 g) also induces similar transient [Ca2+]c-increases. In this review, we propose models for possible cellular processes of the garavi-stimulus-induced [Ca2+]c-increase, and evaluate those by examining whether the model fits well with the kinetic parameters derived from the [Ca2+]c-increases obtained by applying gravistimulus with different amplitudes and time sequences. PMID:25763612

  15. Changes in wind pattern alter albatross distribution and life-history traits.

    PubMed

    Weimerskirch, Henri; Louzao, Maite; de Grissac, Sophie; Delord, Karine

    2012-01-13

    Westerly winds in the Southern Ocean have increased in intensity and moved poleward. Using long-term demographic and foraging records, we show that foraging range in wandering albatrosses has shifted poleward in conjunction with these changes in wind pattern, while their rates of travel and flight speeds have increased. Consequently, the duration of foraging trips has decreased, breeding success has improved, and birds have increased in mass by more than 1 kilogram. These positive consequences of climate change may be temporary if patterns of wind in the southern westerlies follow predicted climate change scenarios. This study stresses the importance of foraging performance as the key link between environmental changes and population processes. PMID:22246774

  16. Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind Changes during the Last Glacial Maximum: Paleo-data Synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohfeld, Karen; Graham, Robert; De Boer, Agatha; Sime, Louise; Wolff, Eric; Le Qur, Corinne; Bopp, Laurent

    2013-04-01

    Changes in the strength and position of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds during the last glacial cycle have been invoked to explain glacial-interglacial climate fluctuations. However, neither paleo models nor paleodata agree on the magnitude, or even the sign, of the change in wind strength and latitude during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), compared to the recent past. This study synthesizes paleo-environmental data that have been used to infer changes in winds during the LGM compared with the late Holocene. These compilations include changes in terrestrial moisture, dust deposition, and ocean productivity, along with summaries of previously published information on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere. Our compilations of terrestrial moisture from 94 sites and dust deposition from 87 sites show generally drier conditions for the LGM between 0 and 40S, with wetter conditions along the west coasts and drying along the east coasts of continents. LGM dust deposition rates ranged from 2 to 4.5 times higher over the Southern Ocean and about 13 times higher over the Antarctic continent. For the oceans, reconstructed changes in SSTs show maximum cooling (>4C) in the modern-day Subantarctic Zone, coincident with a region of enhanced export production during the LGM compared with today. We find that any hypothesis of LGM wind and climate change needs to provide a plausible explanation for increased moisture on the west coast of continents, cooler temperatures and higher productivity in the Subantarctic Zone, and reductions in Agulhas leakage around southern Africa. Our comparison suggests that an overall strengthening, an equatorward displacement, or no change at all in winds could all be interpreted as consistent with observations. If a single cause related to the southern westerlies is sought for all the evidence presented, then an equatorward displacement or strengthening of the winds would be consistent with the largest proportion of the data evidence. However, other processes, such as weakening or poleward shifts in winds, a weakened hydrological cycle, extended sea-ice cover, and changed buoyancy fluxes, cannot be ruled out as potential explanations of observed changes in moisture, surface temperature, and productivity. We contend that resolving the position and strength of westerly winds during the LGM remains elusive based on data reconstructions alone. However, we believe that these data reconstructions of environmental conditions can be used in conjunction with model simulations to identify which processes best represent westerly wind conditions during the LGM.

  17. Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal – A Systematic Synthesis of Literature

    PubMed Central

    Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    Background Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. Methodology A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Conclusion Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant. PMID:26086887

  18. Winds of Change: How Black Holes May Shape Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2010-03-01

    New observations from NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory provide evidence for powerful winds blowing away from the vicinity of a supermassive black hole in a nearby galaxy. This discovery indicates that "average" supermassive black holes may play an important role in the evolution of the galaxies in which they reside. For years, astronomers have known that a supermassive black hole grows in parallel with its host galaxy. And, it has long been suspected that material blown away from a black hole - as opposed to the fraction of material that falls into it -- alters the evolution of its host galaxy. A key question is whether such "black hole blowback" typically delivers enough power to have a significant impact. Powerful relativistic jets shot away from the biggest supermassive black holes in large, central galaxies in clusters like Perseus are seen to shape their host galaxies, but these are rare. What about less powerful, less focused galaxy-scale winds that should be much more common? "We're more interested here in seeing what an "average"-sized supermassive black hole can do to its galaxy, not the few, really big ones in the biggest galaxies," said Dan Evans of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who presented these results at the High Energy Astrophysics Division of the American Astronomical Society meeting in Kona, Hawaii. Evans and his colleagues used Chandra for five days to observe NGC 1068, one of the nearest and brightest galaxies containing a rapidly growing supermassive black hole. This black hole is only about twice as massive as the one in the center of our Galaxy, which is considered to be a rather ordinary size. The X-ray images and spectra obtained using Chandra's High Energy Transmission Grating Spectrometer (HETGS) showed that a strong wind is being driven away from the center of NGC 1068 at a rate of about a million miles per hour. This wind is likely generated as surrounding gas is accelerated and heated as it swirls toward the black hole. A portion of the gas is pulled into the black hole, but some of it is blown away. High energy X-rays produced by the gas near the black hole heat the ouflowing gas, causing it to glow at lower X-ray energies. This Chandra study by Evans and his colleagues is much deeper than previous X-ray observations. It allowed them to make a high-definition map of the cone-shaped volume lit up by the black hole and its winds. By combining measurement of the velocity of the clouds with estimates of the density of the gas, Evans and his colleagues showed that each year several times the mass of the Sun is being deposited out to large distances, about 3,000 light years from the black hole. The wind may carry enough energy to heat the surrounding gas and suppress extra star formation. "We have shown that even these middle-of-the-road black holes can pack a punch," said Evans. "I think the upshot is that these black holes are anything but ordinary." Further Chandra HETGS studies of other nearby galaxies will examine the impact of other AGN outflows, leading to improvements in our understanding of the evolution of both galaxies and black holes. "In the future, our own Galaxy's black hole may undergo similar activity, helping to shut down the growth of new stars in the central region of the Milky Way," said Evans. These new results provide a key comparison to previous work performed at Georgia State University and the Catholic University of America with the Hubble Space Telescope's STIS instrument. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., manages the Chandra program for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory controls Chandra's science and flight operations from Cambridge, Mass. More information, including images and other multimedia, can be found at: http://chandra.harvard.edu and http://chandra.nasa.gov

  19. Downscaling of precipitation for climate change scenarios: A support vector machine approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tripathi, Shivam; Srinivas, V. V.; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2006-11-01

    SummaryThe Climate impact studies in hydrology often rely on climate change information at fine spatial resolution. However, general circulation models (GCMs), which are among the most advanced tools for estimating future climate change scenarios, operate on a coarse scale. Therefore the output from a GCM has to be downscaled to obtain the information relevant to hydrologic studies. In this paper, a support vector machine (SVM) approach is proposed for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated through its application to meteorological sub-divisions (MSDs) in India. First, climate variables affecting spatio-temporal variation of precipitation at each MSD in India are identified. Following this, the data pertaining to the identified climate variables (predictors) at each MSD are classified using cluster analysis to form two groups, representing wet and dry seasons. For each MSD, SVM- based downscaling model (DM) is developed for season(s) with significant rainfall using principal components extracted from the predictors as input and the contemporaneous precipitation observed at the MSD as an output. The proposed DM is shown to be superior to conventional downscaling using multi-layer back-propagation artificial neural networks. Subsequently, the SVM-based DM is applied to future climate predictions from the second generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) to obtain future projections of precipitation for the MSDs. The results are then analyzed to assess the impact of climate change on precipitation over India. It is shown that SVMs provide a promising alternative to conventional artificial neural networks for statistical downscaling, and are suitable for conducting climate impact studies.

  20. Surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Germany: trends and challenges in the view of disease emergence and climate change.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Andreas; Frank, Christina; Koch, Judith; Stark, Klaus

    2008-12-01

    The changing epidemiology of vector-borne diseases represents a growing threat to human health. Contemporary surveillance systems have to adapt to these changes. We describe temporal trends and geographic origins of vector-borne diseases in Germany with regard to strengths of existing disease surveillance and to areas marked for improvement. We focused on hantavirus infection (endemic in Germany), chikungunya fever (recently emerging in Europe) and dengue fever (imported from tropical regions), representing important subgroups of vector-borne infections. Routine surveillance data on demographics, origin of infection and the date of reporting were analysed. From 2001 through 2007, 3,005 symptomatic hantavirus infections, and 85 cases of chikungunya fever were reported, similarly 1,048 cases of dengue fever in 2002 through 2007. The geographic origin of hantavirus infection was reported for 95.5% of all cases (dengue virus, 98.4%; chikungunya virus, 100%). Hantavirus infections were acquired in Germany in 97.6% of cases (n = 2800). In 2007, there was a marked increase of hantavirus cases, mainly in areas known to be endemic for hantavirus. In 2006, imported cases of chikungunya fever primarily returned from several islands of the Indian Ocean, while the majority of imported cases in 2007 came from India. The reported number of dengue fever cases have increased since 2004. Thailand contributed the largest proportion of cases (17-43% in individual years), followed by India, Brazil and Indonesia. Surveillance of notifiable vector-borne diseases in Germany is able to timely detect spatial and temporal changes of autochthonous an imported infections. Geographic and temporal data obtained by routine surveillance served as a basis for public health recommendations. In addition to surveillance of vector-borne infections in humans, nationwide monitoring programs and inventory techniques for emerging and reemerging vectors and for wildlife disease are warranted. PMID:19030882

  1. Impact of land use change on wind erosion and dust emission: scenarios from the central US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tatarko, J.; Okin, G. S.; Herrick, J.; Li, J.

    2010-12-01

    There will be significant changes in land cover and land use throughout the central United States in the coming years, particularly due to changes in US rangeland/farm policy and an increasing exploitation of land-intensive sustainable energy sources. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential of these land use and land cover changes to alter wind erosion and dust emission from these highly erodible lands. Two models were inter-calibrated and then applied to investigate the effects of these changes: the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) and the Wind Erosion MOdel (WEMO). WEPS was developed to evaluate the effects of different cropland management systems, whereas WEMO was designed to quantify differences in wind erosion in rangeland ecosystems. We find that conversion of rangelands, even when the soil surface was disturbed, are lower than those expected from conversion to any of the crop management systems evaluated. These results indicate that policy and economic forces that shape land use decision making can have impact on wind erosion and, importantly, emission of dust with local and regional consequences.

  2. Land cover change assessment using decision trees, support vector machines and maximum likelihood classification algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otukei, J. R.; Blaschke, T.

    Land cover change assessment is one of the main applications of remote sensed data. A number of pixel based classification algorithms have been developed over the past years for the analysis of remotely sensed data. The most notable include the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), support vector machines (SVMs) and the decision trees (DTs). The DTs in particular offer advantages not provided by other approaches. They are computationally fast and make no statistical assumptions regarding the distribution of data. The challenge to using DTs lies in the determination of the "best" tree structure and the decision boundaries. Recent developments in the field of data mining have however, provided an alternative for overcoming the above shortcomings. In this study, we analysed the potential of DTs as one technique for data mining for the analysis of the 1986 and 2001 Landsat TM and ETM+ datasets, respectively. The results were compared with those obtained using SVMs, and MLC. Overall, acceptable accuracies of over 85% were obtained in all the cases. In general, the DTs performed better than both MLC and SVMs.

  3. The impact of functional connectivity changes on support vector machines mapping of fMRI data.

    PubMed

    Sato, João Ricardo; Mourão-Miranda, Janaina; Morais Martin, Maria da Graça; Amaro, Edson; Morettin, Pedro Alberto; Brammer, Michael John

    2008-07-15

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is currently one of the most widely used methods for studying human brain function in vivo. Although many different approaches to fMRI analysis are available, the most widely used methods employ so called "mass-univariate" modeling of responses in a voxel-by-voxel fashion to construct activation maps. However, it is well known that many brain processes involve networks of interacting regions and for this reason multivariate analyses might seem to be attractive alternatives to univariate approaches. The current paper focuses on one multivariate application of statistical learning theory: the statistical discrimination maps (SDM) based on support vector machine, and seeks to establish some possible interpretations when the results differ from univariate approaches. In fact, when there are changes not only on the activation level of two conditions but also on functional connectivity, SDM seems more informative. We addressed this question using both simulations and applications to real data. We have shown that the combined use of univariate approaches and SDM yields significant new insights into brain activations not available using univariate methods alone. In the application to a visual working memory fMRI data, we demonstrated that the interaction among brain regions play a role in SDM's power to detect discriminative voxels. PMID:18499266

  4. Changes in measured vector magnetic fields when transformed into heliographic coordinates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hagyard, M. J.

    1987-01-01

    The changes that occur in measured magnetic fields when they are transformed into a heliographic coordinate system are investigated. To carry out this investigation, measurements of the vector magnetic field of an active region that was observed at 1/3 the solar radius from disk center are taken, and the observed field is transformed into heliographic coordinates. Differences in the calculated potential field that occur when the heliographic normal component of the field is used as the boundary condition rather than the observed line-of-sight component are also examined. The results of this analysis show: (1) that the observed fields of sunspots more closely resemble the generally accepted picture of the distribution of umbral fields if they are displayed in heliographic coordinates; (2) that the differences in the potential calculations are less than 200 G in field strength and 20 deg in field azimuth outside sunspots; and (3) that differences in the two potential calculations in the sunspot areas are no more than 400 G in field strength but range from 60 to 80 deg in field azimuth in localized umbral areas.

  5. Interhemispheric Geomagnetic Field Response to Sudden Change in Solar Wind Pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clauer, C. R.; Kim, H.; Cai, X.; Weimer, D. R.; Baker, J. B.; Stolle, C.; Matzka, J.

    2012-12-01

    Geomagnetic responses to sudden change in solar wind pressure are studied using data from the ACE satellite and ground magnetometer array in high latitude conjugate locations. Solar wind pressure changes of > 5 nPa in < 16 minutes and the pressures, which are steady for ~1 hour before and ~20 minutes after the pressure changes, have been examined using the data sets obtained from 1998 to 2012. Three conjugate pairs of high latitude ground stations are utilized to examine interhemispheric asymmetry in geomagnetic responses to solar wind sudden impulse events. The statistical study of interhemispheric ground responses is conducted to investigate its seasonal behavior in relation to magnetospheric and ionospheric dynamics. The ground data are also compared with the data from the GOES satellites and SuperDARN network to study responses in the inner magnetosphere and ionospheric convection patterns, respectively.

  6. Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Predicting anopheles vectors’ population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns. Methods We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km2). Results Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios. Conclusion The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial. PMID:24885061

  7. Changes in the electric dipole vector of human serum albumin due to complexing with fatty acids.

    PubMed Central

    Scheider, W; Dintzis, H M; Oncley, J L

    1976-01-01

    The magnitude of the electric dipole vector of human serum albumin, as measured by the dielectric increment of the isoionic solution, is found to be a sensitive, monotonic indicator of the number of moles (up to at least 5) of long chain fatty acid complexed. The sensitivity is about three times as great as it is in bovine albumin. New methods of analysis of the frequency dispersion of the dielectric constant were developed to ascertain if molecular shape changes also accompany the complexing with fatty acid. Direct two-component rotary diffusion constant analysis is found to be too strongly affected by cross modulation between small systematic errors and physically significant data components to be a reliable measure of structural modification. Multicomponent relaxation profiles are more useful as recognition patterns for structural comparisons, but the equations involved are ill-conditioned and solutions based on standard least-squares regression contain mathematical artifacts which mask the physically significant spectrum. By constraining the solution to non-negative coefficients, the magnitude of the artifacts is reduced to well below the magnitudes of the spectral components. Profiles calculated in this way show no evidence of significant dipole direction or molecular shape change as the albumin is complexed with 1 mol of fatty acid. In these experiments albumin was defatted by incubation with adipose tissue at physiological pH, which avoids passing the protein through the pH of the N-F transition usually required in defatting. Addition of fatty acid from soluion in small amounts of ethanol appears to form a complex indistinguishable from the "native" complex. PMID:6087

  8. Martian surface winds: Insensitivity to orbital changes and implications for aeolian processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fenton, Lori K.; Richardson, Mark I.

    2001-12-01

    Aeolian features observed on the surface of Mars provide insight into current, and potentially past, surface wind systems. In some cases the features are clearly transient and related to the lifting and settling of atmospheric dust. Other features, like dunefields, yardangs, and ventifacts, are more persistent and likely require significant time to form. In this study we analyze the observed directions of selected aeolian features with the aid of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Mars general circulation model (GCM). Initially, we examine bright and dark streaks which have been observed to form in association with global dust storms. The ability to match these features with Mars GCM wind directions provides an important validation of the model. More important, we are able to define best fit seasons and local times for both types of features which provide the basis for extension and modification of the Veverka et al. [1981] model of bright and dark dust streak formation. In addition these best fit times correspond well with the dark streak ``wind storm'' model of Magalhães and Young [1995]. The primary focus of this paper is to provide constraints on the range of mechanisms proposed to explain inconsistencies between current wind direction patterns and long-term wind indicators (for example, the misalignment of rock tail and ventifact orientations at the Mars Pathfinder landing site). Specifically, we assess whether changes in planetary obliquity, precession, or global dust opacity could significantly alter patterns of surface wind directions. In all cases we find the seasonal and annual average wind direction patterns to be highly invariable. While changes in the dust loading (hence the partitioning of solar absorption between the surface and atmosphere) and in the surface latitude of maximum solstitial insolation cause the vigor of the large-scale circulation to increase (especially the Hadley cell), the spatial patterns of the surface wind orientations remain essentially unchanged. In the case of perihelion during northern summer (opposite of the current perihelion position), the northern summer Hadley cell remains weaker than the southern summer cell despite the strengthened heating in the northern hemisphere. Taken together, these results cast significant doubt on orbital explanations for surface wind changes. It is thus suggested that significant changes in topography (e.g., Tharsis uplift, true polar wander) or climate (e.g., the existence of a significantly thicker atmosphere or an ocean at some point in the past) are more likely explanations for long-term wind indicators such as the ventifact orientations at the Mars Pathfinder landing site.

  9. Climate change, vector-borne disease and interdisciplinary research: social science perspectives on an environment and health controversy.

    PubMed

    Brisbois, Ben W; Ali, S Harris

    2010-12-01

    Over the last two decades, the science of climate change's theoretical impacts on vector-borne disease has generated controversy related to its methodological validity and relevance to disease control policy. Critical social science analysis, drawing on science and technology studies and the sociology of social movements, demonstrates consistency between this controversy and the theory that climate change is serving as a collective action frame for some health researchers. Within this frame, vector-borne disease data are interpreted as a symptom of climate change, with the need for further interdisiplinary research put forth as the logical and necessary next step. Reaction to this tendency on the part of a handful of vector-borne disease specialists exhibits characteristics of academic boundary work aimed at preserving the integrity of existing disciplinary boundaries. Possible reasons for this conflict include the leadership role for health professionals and disciplines in the envisioned interdiscipline, and disagreements over the appropriate scale of interventions to control vector-borne diseases. Analysis of the competing frames in this controversy also allows identification of excluded voices and themes, such as international political economic explanations for the health problems in question. A logical conclusion of this analysis, therefore, is the need for critical reflection on environment and health research and policy to achieve integration with considerations of global health equity. PMID:21125310

  10. Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Gubler, D J; Reiter, P; Ebi, K L; Yap, W; Nasci, R; Patz, J A

    2001-05-01

    Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved. PMID:11359689

  11. Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

    PubMed Central

    Gubler, D J; Reiter, P; Ebi, K L; Yap, W; Nasci, R; Patz, J A

    2001-01-01

    Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved. PMID:11359689

  12. Past and future wind changes over the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavaillaz, Y.; Codron, F.; Kageyama, M.

    2013-12-01

    Mid-latitude westerlies are a major component of the atmospheric circulation, and their response to climate change will determine changes in precipitation, storms, and ocean circulation and CO2 uptake. In this study, we analyse, mainly in terms of jet stream position, the behaviour of the southern westerlies for a future climate, obtained after stabilisation of the RCP4.5 scenario, as well as for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 yr ago), which is the last past cold extreme with about opposite global temperature change from the future one. We use the models from the CMIP5-PMIP3 archive. The a priori guess would be that the behaviour of the westerly jet stream would be similar when examining its changes from LGM to pre-industrial (PI) con- ditions and from PI to RCP4.5, i.e. in both cases a poleward shift in response to global warming. While this is true for all models in the future case, the LGM shows instead little or inconsistent jet shifts, because of a strong cooling over Antarctica during the LGM. We show that the behavior of the jets in both cases can be quantitatively reproduced using two indices of temperature changes in the Tropics and the high latitudes.

  13. Evidence that implicit assumptions of ‘no evolution’ of disease vectors in changing environments can be violated on a rapid timescale

    PubMed Central

    Egizi, Andrea; Fefferman, Nina H.; Fonseca, Dina M.

    2015-01-01

    Projected impacts of climate change on vector-borne disease dynamics must consider many variables relevant to hosts, vectors and pathogens, including how altered environmental characteristics might affect the spatial distributions of vector species. However, many predictive models for vector distributions consider their habitat requirements to be fixed over relevant time-scales, when they may actually be capable of rapid evolutionary change and even adaptation. We examine the genetic signature of a spatial expansion by an invasive vector into locations with novel temperature conditions compared to its native range as a proxy for how existing vector populations may respond to temporally changing habitat. Specifically, we compare invasions into different climate ranges and characterize the importance of selection from the invaded habitat. We demonstrate that vector species can exhibit evolutionary responses (altered allelic frequencies) to a temperature gradient in as little as 7–10 years even in the presence of high gene flow, and further, that this response varies depending on the strength of selection. We interpret these findings in the context of climate change predictions for vector populations and emphasize the importance of incorporating vector evolution into models of future vector-borne disease dynamics. PMID:25688024

  14. Will people change their vector-control practices in the presence of an imperfect dengue vaccine?

    PubMed

    Boccia, T M Q R; Burattini, M N; Coutinho, F A B; Massad, E

    2014-03-01

    Human behaviours, which are influenced by social, cultural, economic and political factors, can increase or decrease the risk of dengue infection, depending on the relationship with the insect vector. Because no vaccine is currently available, the spread of dengue can only be curtailed by controlling vector populations (Aedes aegypti and others) and by protecting individuals. This study tested the hypothesis that dengue-affected populations are likely to relax their vector-control habits if a potentially protective vaccine becomes available. The hypothesis was tested using two approaches: a mathematical model designed to describe dengue transmission and an empirical field test in which the local population of an endemic area was interviewed about their vector-control habits given the presence of a theoretical vaccine. The model demonstrated that depending on the level of vector-control reduction, there is a threshold in vaccine efficacy below which it is better not to introduce the vaccine. The interview showed that people who were informed that a very effective vaccine is available would reduce their vector-control habits significantly compared to a group that was informed that the vaccine is not very effective. PMID:23735007

  15. An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Jon

    2012-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

  16. Detecting cross-equatorial wind change as a fingerprint of climate response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hai; Xie, Shang-Ping; Tokinaga, Hiroki; Liu, Qinyu; Kosaka, Yu

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are a major driver of the twetieth century climate change. In climate models, the aerosol forcing, larger in the Northern than Southern Hemispheres, induces an interhemispheric Hadley circulation. In support of the model result, we detected a robust change in the zonal mean cross-equatorial wind over the past 60 years from ship observations and reanalyses, accompanied by physically consistent changes in atmospheric pressure and marine cloud cover. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the observed change in cross-equatorial wind is a fingerprint of aerosol forcing. This zonal mean mode follows the evolution of global aerosol forcing that is distinct from regional changes in the Atlantic sector. Atmospheric simulations successfully reproduce this interhemispheric mode, indicating the importance of sea surface temperature mediation in response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing. As societies awaken to reduce aerosol emissions, a phase reversal of this interhemispheric mode is expected in the 21st century.

  17. Aedes aegypti (L.) in Latin American and Caribbean region: With growing evidence for vector adaptation to climate change?

    PubMed

    Chadee, Dave D; Martinez, Raymond

    2016-04-01

    Within Latin America and the Caribbean region the impact of climate change has been associated with the effects of rainfall and temperature on seasonal outbreaks of dengue but few studies have been conducted on the impacts of climate on the behaviour and ecology of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.This study was conducted to examine the adaptive behaviours currently being employed by A. aegypti mosquitoes exposed to the force of climate change in LAC countries. The literature on the association between climate and dengue incidence is small and sometimes speculative. Few laboratory and field studies have identified research gaps. Laboratory and field experiments were designed and conducted to better understand the container preferences, climate-associated-adaptive behaviour, ecology and the effects of different temperatures and light regimens on the life history of A. aegypti mosquitoes. A. aegypti adaptive behaviours and changes in container preferences demonstrate how complex dengue transmission dynamics is, in different ecosystems. The use of underground drains and septic tanks represents a major behaviour change identified and compounds an already difficult task to control A. aegypti populations. A business as usual approach will exacerbate the problem and lead to more frequent outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in LAC countries unless both area-wide and targeted vector control approaches are adopted. The current evidence and the results from proposed transdisciplinary research on dengue within different ecosystems will help guide the development of new vector control strategies and foster a better understanding of climate change impacts on vector-borne disease transmission. PMID:26796862

  18. Spatial Orientation and Balance Control Changes Induced by Altered Gravito-Inertial Force Vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Galen D.; Wood, Scott J.; Gianna, Claire C.; Black, F. Owen; Paloski, William H.; Dawson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1999-01-01

    Seventeen healthy and eight vestibular deficient subjects were exposed to an interaural centripetal acceleration of 1 G (resultant 45 deg roll tilt of 1.4 G) on a 0.8 meter radius centrifuge for a period of 90 minutes in the dark. The subjects sat with head fixed upright, except every 4 of 10 minutes when instructed to rotate their head so that their nose and eyes pointed towards a visual point switched on every 3 to 5 seconds at random places (within +/- 30 deg) in the Earth horizontal plane. Motion sickness caused some subjects to limit their head movements during significant portions of the 90 minute period, and led three normal subjects to stop the test earlier. Eye movements, including directed saccades for subjective Earth- and head-referenced planes, were recorded before, during, and immediately after centrifugation using electro-oculography. Postural stability measurements were made before and within ten minutes after centrifugation. In normal subjects, postural sway and multisegment body kinematics were gathered during an eyes-closed head movement cadence (sway-referenced support platform), and in response to translational/rotational platform perturbations. A significant increase in postural sway, segmental motion amplitude and hip frequency was observed after centrifugation. This effect was short-lived, with a recovery time of several postural test trials. There were also asymmetries in the direction of post-centrifugation center of sway and head tilt which depended on the subject's orientation during the centrifugation adaptation period (left ear or right ear out). To delineate the effect of the magnitude of the gravito-inertial vector versus its direction during the adaptive centrifugation period, we tilted eight normal subjects in the roll axis at a 45 deg angle in the dark for 90 minutes without rotational motion. Their postural responses did not change following the period of tilt. Based on verbal reports, normal subjects overestimated roll-tilt during 90 minutes of both tilt and centrifugation stimuli. Subjective estimates of head-horizontal, provided by directed saccades, revealed significant errors after approximately 30 minutes that tended to increase only in the group who underwent centrifugation. Immediately after centrifugation, subjects reported feeling tilted on average 10 degrees in the opposite direction, which was in agreement with the direction of their earth-directed saccades. In vestibular deficient (VD) subjects, postural sway was measured using a sway-referenced or earth-fixed support surface, and with or without a head movement sequence. 'Me protocol was selected for each patient during baseline testing, and corresponded to the most challenging condition in which the patient was able to maintain balance with eyes closed. Bilaterally VD subjects showed no postural decrement after centrifugation, while unilateral VD subjects had varying degrees of decrement. Unilateral VD subjects were tested twice; they underwent centrifugation both with right ear out and left ear out. Their post-centrifuation center of sway shifted at right angles depending on the centrifuge GIF orientation. Bilateral VD subjects bad shifts as well, but no consistent directional trend. VD subjects underestimated roll-tilt during centrifugation, These results suggest that orientation of the gravito-inertial vector and its magnitude arc both used by the central nervous system for calibration of multiple orientation systems. A change in the background gravito-inertial force (otolith input) can rapidly initiate postural and perceptual adaptation in several sensorimotor systems, independent of a structured visual surround.

  19. Titan's rotation reveals an internal ocean and changing zonal winds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lorenz, R.D.; Stiles, B.W.; Kirk, R.L.; Allison, M.D.; Del Marmo, P.P.; Iess, L.; Lunine, J.I.; Ostro, S.J.; Hensley, S.

    2008-01-01

    Cassini radar observations of Saturn's moon Titan over several years show that its rotational period is changing and is different from its orbital period. The present-day rotation period difference from synchronous spin leads to a shift of ???0.36?? per year in apparent longitude and is consistent with seasonal exchange of angular momentum between the surface and Titan's dense superrotating atmosphere, but only if Titan's crust is decoupled from the core by an internal water ocean like that on Europa.

  20. ASCAT wind quality under high subcell wind variability conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Wenming; Portabella, Marcos; Stoffelen, Ad; Vogelzang, Jur; Verhoef, Anton

    2015-08-01

    The assessment and validation of the quality of satellite scatterometer vector winds is challenging under increased subcell wind variability conditions, since reference wind sources such as buoy winds or model output represent very different spatial scales from those resolved by scatterometers (i.e., increased representativeness error). In this paper, moored buoy wind time series are used to assess the correlation between subcell wind variability and several Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)-derived parameters, such as the wind-inversion residual, the backscatter measurement variability factor, and the singularity exponents derived from an image processing technique, called singularity analysis. It is proven that all three ASCAT parameters are sensitive to the subcell wind variability and complementary in flagging the most variable winds, which is useful for further application. A triple collocation (TC) analysis of ASCAT, buoy, and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model output is then performed to assess the quality of each wind data source under different variability conditions. A novel approach is used to compute the representativeness errors, a key ingredient for the TC analysis. The experimental results show that the estimated errors of each wind source increase as the subcell wind variability increases. When temporally averaged buoy winds are used instead of 10 min buoy winds, the TC analysis results in smaller buoy wind errors (notably at increased wind variability conditions) while ASCAT and ECMWF errors do not significantly change, further validating the proposed TC approach. It is concluded that at 25 km resolution, ASCAT provides the best quality winds in general.

  1. Winds of Change: Charting the Course for IT in the Twenty-First Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Brian L.

    2007-01-01

    In the spring of 2005, the author, the retiring president of EDUCAUSE, was asked to be the keynote speaker at the EDUCAUSE Western Regional Conference. The conference theme was "Winds of Change: Charting the Course for Technology in Challenging Times." What that brought to his mind was the era of the great sailing ships of the eighteenth and…

  2. Interhemispheric Geomagnetic Field Response to Sudden Change in Solar Wind Pressure and IMF Orientation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Cai, X.; Clauer, C. R.; Stolle, C.; Matzka, J.

    2011-12-01

    Preliminary investigation of geomagnetic field response to sudden change in solar wind pressure and IMF orientation is presented using data from satellite and ground magnetometer array in both northern and southern hemispheres. Some data sets in this study have been provided by AGO (Automatic Geophysical Observatory) and AAL-PIP (Autonomous Adaptive Low-Power Instrument Platform) stations deployed in Antarctica along the 40° magnetic meridian. These stations facilitate high-latitude multi-point magnetic conjugate observation pairs to the Greenland West Coast magnetometer chain for interhemispheric investigations, which have been rarely made because of the difficulty in accessing the Antarctic regions. Geomagnetic field perturbations in response to solar wind pressure impulse events, in which the solar wind pressure changes are more than ˜5 nPa in less than ~16 minutes and the pressures are steady for ~1 hour before and ~20 minutes after the pressure changes, have been examined using the data sets obtained from 1998 to 2010 to show global local time distribution of the ground response, timing response between the two hemispheres and its seasonal variation, and the relationship between IMF orientation and the ground response accompanied by the solar wind sudden pressure change.

  3. Understanding the geoeffective properties of rapid changes in the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, A. J.; Yu, Y.; Liemohn, M. W.; Dodger, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    The magnetosphere is strongly driven by the state of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). When these change, the magnetosphere reacts in different ways depending on the specific change. For example, when the IMF reorients, the reconnection site needs to move and become reestablished. After this, Alfven waves propagate to the ionosphere, communicating the change. Overall, this alteration can take many minutes to initialize and 10-20 minutes to set up a new potential pattern. Conversely, when the solar wind changes and the magnetopause position alters, a fast-mode wave propagates throughout the system communicating the new state. During this time period, the ionospheric convection can become significantly enhanced for a few to tens of minutes. This has a ramification on the geoeffectiveness of highly structured solar wind and IMF, as occurs during the sheath of a coronal mass ejection. Namely, the magnetosphere acts as a low pass filter on the highly variable IMF, but reacts strongly to the strongly varying solar wind density. We present systematic simulation results that demonstrate these properties of the magnetosphere, and discuss the effectiveness of the different frequencies of variations that may encounter the magnetosphere.

  4. Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

  5. Climate change could threaten blood supply by altering the distribution of vector-borne disease: an Australian case-study

    PubMed Central

    Bambrick, Hilary J.; Woodruff, Rosalie E.; Hanigan, Ivan C.

    2009-01-01

    Background Climate change is expected to promote more intense and prolonged outbreaks of vector-borne disease, and alter the geographic boundaries of transmission. This has implications for the safety and supply of fresh blood products around the world. In Australia, a recent outbreak of dengue fever caused a prolonged regional shortage in the supply of fresh blood products. Objective To highlight the potential for climate change to affect the safety and supply of blood globally through its impact on vector-borne disease, using the example of dengue in Australia as a case-study. Design We modelled geographic regions in Australia suitable for dengue transmission over the coming century under four climate change scenarios, estimated changes to the population at risk and effect on blood supply. Results Geographic regions with climates that are favourable to dengue transmission could expand to include large population centres in a number of currently dengue-free regions in Australia and reduce blood supply across several states. Conclusion Unless there is strong intergovernmental action on greenhouse gas reduction, there could be an eight-fold increase in the number of people living in dengue prone regions in Australia by the end of the century. Similar impacts will be experienced elsewhere and for other vector-borne diseases, with regions currently on the margins of transmission zones most affected. Globally, climate change is likely to compound existing problems of blood safety and supply in already endemic areas and cause future shortages in fresh blood products through its impact on transmission of vector-borne disease. PMID:20052315

  6. Large warming trends associated with blocked winds over the Antarctic Peninsula and changes in zonal circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orr, A.; Hunt, J.; Light, M.; Cresswell, D.

    2003-04-01

    Analysis of surface temperature (ST) anomalies of the Antarctic for the period 1982-1998 has shown that the largest warming trend in the world occurs on the western coast of the Antarctic Peninsula (by approximately 1.0{o}C over the past 20 years). This is associated with related warming of the peripheral seas and decrease of the sea-ice extent (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). This can be studied by considering how zonal winds interact with the mountains (2km high) of the peninsula. Since westerly winds are turned southwards through Coriolis forces, warmer air over the southern ocean is transported to the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. On its eastern side (warming of approximately 0.5{o}C over the past 20 years), strong southerly katabatic winds overcome the weak northerly synoptically driven flows and flow along the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula. However for easterly winds passing over the Weddell Sea, Coriolis forces cause winds which add to the cold katabatic southerly winds from the Antarctic plateau. Both these types of wind cool the east and west sides of the peninsula. Therefore the observed increase in the frequency of westerly winds should cause a net warming, particularly on the western side, as recent synoptic data from the NCEP/ECMWF reanalysis project has shown for the past 20 years (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). This concept has been tested using detailed modelling of the stably stratified atmospheric flows over the peninsula. The idealised 2-layer model of Hunt et al. (2002) for typical mesoscale atmospheric flows with sharp variations in surface roughness and mountainous elevation verifies the above flow behaviour for easterly and westerly winds perpendicular to a `cape' such as the Antarctic Peninsula. Numerical modelling using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) at 12km resolution showed a flow response which agrees with observational weather station data on the eastern side. But it is less satisfactory on the western side where the katabatic winds are not (at present) accurately represented. \\vspace{0.1cm} References: \\vspace{0.1cm} Kwok, R. and Comiso, J. C., `Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation', Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, No. 10, 2002. \\vspace{0.1cm} Hunt, J. C. R., Orr, A., Rottman, J. and Capon, R., `Coriolis effects in mesoscale flows with sharp changes in surface conditions', Submitted to Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc, 2002.

  7. Change of solar wind quasi-invariant in solar cycle 23—Analysis of PDFs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leitner, M.; Farrugia, C. J.; Vörös, Z.

    2011-02-01

    An in situ solar wind measurement which is a very good proxy for solar activity, correlating well with the sunspot number, is the solar wind “quasi-invariant” (QI), which is defined as the ratio between magnetic and kinetic energy densities. Here we use 1-min OMNI data to determine yearly probability density functions (PDFs) for QI. We distinguish between fast and slow solar winds, and exclude interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the data, since the latter have a different distribution. Fitting the PDFs by a log-kappa distribution, we discuss the variation of QI in the period 1995-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23 and the long, very quiet minimum in 2007-2009. The additional value of kappa allows us to obtain a better description for the tails of the distribution than the log-normal approach. Here we describe for the first time how parameter kappa changes over one solar cycle.

  8. Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the potential impact of climate change.

    PubMed

    Peterson, C J

    2000-11-15

    Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-to-days) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very incomplete, and climate-change model predictions sufficiently coarse, that predictions of changes in frequency, size, intensity, or timing of these extreme events must be regarded as highly uncertain. Moreover, retrospective approaches that employ tree demography and dendrochronology require prohibitively large sample sizes to resolve details of the relationship between climate fluctuations and characteristics of these storms. To improve predictions of changes in the climatology of these storms, we need improved understanding of the genesis of tornadoes and downbursts within thunderstorms, and greater resolution in global climate models. To improve coping strategies, forest scientists can contribute by giving more attention to how various silvicultural actions influence stand and tree vulnerability. Finally, increased focus on the dynamics of forest recovery and regrowth may suggest management actions that can facilitate desired objectives after one of these unpredictable wind disturbances. PMID:11087033

  9. Climate change, warm Gulf waters and westerly wind shear, and Hurricane Katrina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, D. S.

    The present year experienced several strong hurricanes intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall and severely damaging the Gulf States especially Hurricane Katrina Here we show that increasing trend of sea surface temperature SST and decreasing vertical wind shear since 1995 over the Gulf may be attributed to climate change and provide favorable conditions for the recent increase in hurricane activity especially the 2005 hurricanes Higher SST anomaly at the right side of storm track induced the increase in surface heat fluxes which corresponds to the deepening of hurricane minimum central pressure A phase lag of about two days is found between SST increase and significant deepening of hurricane central pressure Our results suggest that in addition to the magnitude of vertical wind shear the effects of westerly from easterly wind shear on the intensification of hurricane may need to be separated and westerly environmental wind shear is conducive to hurricane development Warmer SST is found to correspond to the increase of vertical wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico

  10. Assessment of change in hydration in women during pregnancy and postpartum with bioelectrical impedance vectors

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Increases in total body water (TBW) are typical of late-stage pregnancy. Because excessive TBW expansion or contraction can lead to adverse outcomes, a safe non-invasive method for routine assessment of TBW would be useful clinically. Impedance vectors are derived from resistance (R) and reactance...

  11. The role of Southern Ocean winds and CO2 in glacial abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, R.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

    2011-12-01

    The last glacial period (ca. 110-10 kyr before present, hereafter kyr BP) is characterized by substantial climate instability, manifested as climatic variability on millennial timescales. Two types of events dominate this variability: Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, which involve decadal-scale warming by more than 10K, and Heinrich events, massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet at intervals of ca. 10 kyr during peak glacial conditions. Both DO and Heinrich events are associated with widespread centennial to millennial scale climatic changes, including a synchronous temperature response over the North Atlantic and an anti-phase temperature relationship over Antarctica and most of the Southern Ocean, as revealed by a wealth of deep sea sediments and terrestrial record. Recent studies indicate CO2 changes during deglaciation and, possibly, during glacial abrupt climate changes were preceded by significant increases of Southern Ocean upwelling caused by an enhancement and/or a shift of surface winds over that region. The proposed hypothesis is that periods of halted or reduced North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation resulted in warming of the Southern Ocean through the bipolar see-saw effect leading to a reorganization of Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface winds, and thereby enhanced upwelling and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, the role of SH surface wind and CO2 changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is analyzed in a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. We investigate whether changes in the former could eventually trigger an intensification of the Atlantic overturning circulation and a northward shift of NADW formation, which would allow to explain glacial abrupt climate changes as the result of an oscillation which involves the MOC, CO2 and the winds.

  12. Spatial orientation and balance control changes induced by altered gravitoinertial force vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, G. D.; Wood, S. J.; Gianna, C. C.; Black, F. O.; Paloski, W. H.

    2001-01-01

    To better understand the mechanisms of human adaptation to rotating environments, we exposed 19 healthy subjects and 8 vestibular-deficient subjects ("abnormal"; four bilateral and four unilateral lesions) to an interaural centripetal acceleration of 1 g (resultant 45 degrees roll-tilt of 1.4 g) on a 0.8-m-radius centrifuge for periods of 90 min. The subjects sat upright (body z-axis parallel to centrifuge rotation axis) in the dark with head stationary, except during 4 min of every 10 min, when they performed head saccades toward visual targets switched on at 3- to 5-s intervals at random locations (within +/- 30 degrees) in the earth-horizontal plane. Eight of the normal subjects also performed the head saccade protocol in a stationary chair adjusted to a static roll-tilt angle of 45 degrees for 90 min (reproducing the change in orientation but not the magnitude of the gravitoinertial force on the centrifuge). Eye movements, including voluntary saccades directed along perceived earth- and head-referenced planes, were recorded before, during, and immediately after centrifugation. Postural center of pressure (COP) and multisegment body kinematics were also gathered before and within 10 min after centrifugation. Normal subjects overestimated roll-tilt during centrifugation and revealed errors in perception of head-vertical provided by directed saccades. Errors in this perceptual response tended to increase with time and became significant after approximately 30 min. Motion-sickness symptoms caused approximately 25% of normal subjects to limit their head movements during centrifugation and led three normal subjects to stop the test early. Immediately after centrifugation, subjects reported feeling tilted 10 degrees in the opposite direction, which was in agreement with the direction of their earth-referenced directed saccades. Postural COP, segmental body motion amplitude, and hip-sway frequency increased significantly after centrifugation. These postural effects were short-lived, however, with a recovery time of several postural test trials (minutes). There were also asymmetries in the direction of postcentrifugation COP and head tilt which depended on the subject's orientation during the centrifugation adaptation period (left ear or right ear out). The amount of total head movements during centrifugation correlated poorly or inversely with postcentrifugation postural stability, and the most unstable subject made no head movements. There was no decrease in postural stability after static tilt, although these subjects also reported a perceived tilt briefly after return to upright, and they also had COP asymmetries. Abnormal subjects underestimated roll-tilt during centrifugation, and their directed saccades revealed permanent spatial distortions. Bilateral abnormal subjects started out with poor postural control, but showed no postural decrements after centrifugation, while unilateral abnormal subjects had varying degrees of postural decrement, both in their everyday function and as a result of experiencing the centrifugation. In addition, three unilateral, abnormal subjects, who rode twice in opposite orientations, revealed a consistent orthogonal pattern of COP offsets after centrifugation. These results suggest that both orientation and magnitude of the gravitoinertial vector are used by the central nervous system for calibration of multiple orientation systems. A change in the background gravitoinertial force (otolith input) can rapidly initiate postural and perceptual adaptation in several sensorimotor systems, independent of a structured visual surround.

  13. Wind of change: new insights on the ecology and evolution of pollination and mating in wind-pollinated plants

    PubMed Central

    Friedman, Jannice; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

    2009-01-01

    Background The rich literature that characterizes the field of pollination biology has focused largely on animal-pollinated plants. At least 10 % of angiosperms are wind pollinated, and this mode of pollination has evolved on multiple occasions among unrelated lineages, and hence this discrepancy in research interest is surprising. Here, the evolution and functional ecology of pollination and mating in wind-pollinated plants are discussed, a theoretical framework for modelling the selection of wind pollination is outlined, and pollen capture and the occurrence of pollen limitation in diverse wind-pollinated herbs are investigated experimentally. Scope and Conclusions Wind pollination may commonly evolve to provide reproductive assurance when pollinators are scarce. Evidence is presented that pollen limitation in wind-pollinated plants may not be as common as it is in animal-pollinated species. The studies of pollen capture in wind-pollinated herbs demonstrate that pollen transfer efficiency is not substantially lower than in animal-pollinated plants as is often assumed. These findings challenge the explanation that the evolution of few ovules in wind-pollinated flowers is associated with low pollen loads. Floral and inflorescence architecture is crucial to pollination and mating because of the aerodynamics of wind pollination. Evidence is provided for the importance of plant height, floral position, and stamen and stigma characteristics in promoting effective pollen dispersal and capture. Finally, it is proposed that geitonogamous selfing may alleviate pollen limitation in many wind-pollinated plants with unisexual flowers. PMID:19218583

  14. Scanning of wind turbine upwind conditions: numerical algorithm and first applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calaf, Marc; Cortina, Gerard; Sharma, Varun; Parlange, Marc B.

    2014-11-01

    Wind turbines still obtain in-situ meteorological information by means of traditional wind vane and cup anemometers installed at the turbine's nacelle, right behind the blades. This has two important drawbacks: 1-turbine misalignment with the mean wind direction is common and energy losses are experienced; 2-the near-blade monitoring does not provide any time to readjust the profile of the wind turbine to incoming turbulence gusts. A solution is to install wind Lidar devices on the turbine's nacelle. This technique is currently under development as an alternative to traditional in-situ wind anemometry because it can measure the wind vector at substantial distances upwind. However, at what upwind distance should they interrogate the atmosphere? A new flexible wind turbine algorithm for large eddy simulations of wind farms that allows answering this question, will be presented. The new wind turbine algorithm timely corrects the turbines' yaw misalignment with the changing wind. The upwind scanning flexibility of the algorithm also allows to track the wind vector and turbulent kinetic energy as they approach the wind turbine's rotor blades. Results will illustrate the spatiotemporal evolution of the wind vector and the turbulent kinetic energy as the incoming flow approaches the wind turbine under different atmospheric stability conditions. Results will also show that the available atmospheric wind power is larger during daytime periods at the cost of an increased variance.

  15. A case study of effects of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence, wind speed, and stability on wind farm induced temperature changes using observations from a field campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Geng; Zhou, Liming; Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Roy, Somnath Baidya; Harris, Ronald A.; Cervarich, Matthew Charles

    2016-04-01

    Recent studies using satellite observations show that operational wind farms in west-central Texas increase local nighttime land surface temperature (LST) by 0.31-0.70 °C, but no noticeable impact is detected during daytime, and that the diurnal and seasonal variations in the magnitude of this warming are likely determined by those in the magnitude of wind speed. This paper further explores these findings by using the data from a year-long field campaign and nearby radiosonde observations to investigate how thermodynamic profiles and surface-atmosphere exchange processes work in tandem with the presence of wind farms to affect the local climate. Combined with satellite data analyses, we find that wind farm impacts on LST are predominantly determined by the relative ratio of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) induced by the wind turbines compared to the background TKE. This ratio explains not only the day-night contrast of the wind farm impact and the warming magnitude of nighttime LST over the wind farms, but also most of the seasonal variations in the nighttime LST changes. These results indicate that the diurnal and seasonal variations in the turbine-induced turbulence relative to the background TKE play an essential role in determining those in the magnitude of LST changes over the wind farms. In addition, atmospheric stability determines the sign and strength of the net downward heat transport as well as the magnitude of the background TKE. The study highlights the need for better understanding of atmospheric boundary layer and wind farm interactions, and for better parameterizations of sub-grid scale turbulent mixing in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

  16. A case study of effects of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence, wind speed, and stability on wind farm induced temperature changes using observations from a field campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Geng; Zhou, Liming; Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Roy, Somnath Baidya; Harris, Ronald A.; Cervarich, Matthew Charles

    2015-06-01

    Recent studies using satellite observations show that operational wind farms in west-central Texas increase local nighttime land surface temperature (LST) by 0.31-0.70 C, but no noticeable impact is detected during daytime, and that the diurnal and seasonal variations in the magnitude of this warming are likely determined by those in the magnitude of wind speed. This paper further explores these findings by using the data from a year-long field campaign and nearby radiosonde observations to investigate how thermodynamic profiles and surface-atmosphere exchange processes work in tandem with the presence of wind farms to affect the local climate. Combined with satellite data analyses, we find that wind farm impacts on LST are predominantly determined by the relative ratio of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) induced by the wind turbines compared to the background TKE. This ratio explains not only the day-night contrast of the wind farm impact and the warming magnitude of nighttime LST over the wind farms, but also most of the seasonal variations in the nighttime LST changes. These results indicate that the diurnal and seasonal variations in the turbine-induced turbulence relative to the background TKE play an essential role in determining those in the magnitude of LST changes over the wind farms. In addition, atmospheric stability determines the sign and strength of the net downward heat transport as well as the magnitude of the background TKE. The study highlights the need for better understanding of atmospheric boundary layer and wind farm interactions, and for better parameterizations of sub-grid scale turbulent mixing in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

  17. Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

    PubMed Central

    González, Camila; Wang, Ophelia; Strutz, Stavana E.; González-Salazar, Constantino; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2010-01-01

    Background Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. Methods and Findings The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. Conclusions These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies—besides direct intervention in disease cases—should also be further investigated. PMID:20098495

  18. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    PubMed

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  19. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    PubMed Central

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  20. Recent changes in measured wind in the NE Atlantic and variability of correlation with NAO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirazzoli, P. A.; Tomasin, A.; Ullmann, A.

    2010-10-01

    The paper deals with wind measurements, recorded since the 1950s, at twelve meteorological stations along a transect near the westernmost European border, between 64° and 44° N. Extreme wind speed tends to decrease sharply near the northern boundary (at Reykjavick), near the middle of the study area (at Shannon and Valentia) and near the southern boundary (at Brest and Cap Ferret), to increase at Thorshavn, with less significant trends at the other stations. Average wind speeds confirm the above tendencies, with an additional increasing speed at Lerwick, Kirkwall, Malin Head, Belle-Ile and Cap Ferret. To compare changes in wind activity, the data have been subdivided into three periods: until 1975, 1976-1992 and 1993-2008. Frequencies have been computed also for the "winter" (October to March) period, per quadrants, and for occurrences exceeding the speed of 15 m s-1. At Reykjavick a recent increase in the frequency of strong winds has occurred from various directions. Between 62° N (Thorshavn) and 59° N (Kirkwall) strong wind has been increasing since 1975. Minor changes can be observed at Stornoway, whereas at Malin Head the greatest increase for southerlies and westerlies is observed during the 1976-1992 period. At Belmullet, the frequency of strong southerlies has almost doubled since 1992, while at Shannon and Valentia it remains quite low. Finally at Brest and Belle-Ile, westerlies are predominant among winds >15 m s-1. Important changes in time and latitude appear in the correlation with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index. The highest correlation coefficients, calculated with monthly or seasonal means between the early 1950s and 1975, are observed from between 58° N (Stornoway) and Iceland, whereas low positive coefficients are reported more south. During the period 1976-1992, when increasing NAO index is predominant, positive correlation improves southwards as far as 54° (Belmullet) with some improvement also at Shannon and Valentia, while it remains low or even negative near the French Atlantic coast. Finally in the 1993-2008 period, correlation improves for all the stations south of 54° N (Belmullet), while it weakens more north.

  1. Solar Cycle Changes of Solar Wind and their Geo-effectiveness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charan Dwivedi, Vidya; Manoharan, P. K.

    2012-07-01

    In this study, we report the solar cycle changes in solar wind parameters and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere. We consider daily as well as 27-day averages of solar wind speed, density, temperature, and magnetic field measurements made at near-Earth space and compare them with the geomagnetic disturbance index (e.g., Ap), for the period between 1965 and 2010, which covers solar cycles 20 to 23. When the solar wind speed (also density) is compared with geomagnetic disturbance, it is noticed that at the declining phase of each cycle, the high-speed wind (in the case of density, low-density wind) dominates, during when Ap value is also enhanced. It suggests that the high-speed streams from mid- and low-latitude coronal holes and their interactions with ambient solar wind (i.e., CIRs) tend to order the geomagnetic disturbances. However, the width on the time axis and the peak value of the high-speed distribution differ from one cycle to the other. Moreover, the effects of these high-speed streams at the Earth magnetosphere vary between one cycle and the other. In particular, it is revealed that during the long-declining phase of the solar cycle 23, the low-latitude belt of the Sun was dominated by medium to large size coronal holes. This study provides evidence that the location of coronal hole with respect to the neutral sheet (i.e., heliospheric current sheet) seems to play a significant role in determining the geo-effectiveness.

  2. Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gent, Peter R.

    2016-01-01

    Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability.

  3. Effects of Southern Hemisphere Wind Changes on the Meridional Overturning Circulation in Ocean Models.

    PubMed

    Gent, Peter R

    2016-01-01

    Observations show that the Southern Hemisphere zonal wind stress maximum has increased significantly over the past 30 years. Eddy-resolving ocean models show that the resulting increase in the Southern Ocean mean flow meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is partially compensated by an increase in the eddy MOC. This effect can be reproduced in the non-eddy-resolving ocean component of a climate model, providing the eddy parameterization coefficient is variable and not a constant. If the coefficient is a constant, then the Southern Ocean mean MOC change is balanced by an unrealistically large change in the Atlantic Ocean MOC. Southern Ocean eddy compensation means that Southern Hemisphere winds cannot be the dominant mechanism driving midlatitude North Atlantic MOC variability. PMID:26163010

  4. Polar cap convection and PC index during sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauning, P.; Troshichev, O. A.

    2008-08-01

    The polar cap (PC) index derived from polar magnetic variations is primarily a measure of the intensity of the transpolar ionospheric currents generated by the solar wind interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere. We have examined the influence of the solar wind dynamic pressure on the PC index in cases of global sudden impulses (SI) or storm sudden commencement (SSC) magnetic impulses. Such events usually give rise to a sequence of a negative preliminary reverse impulse (PRI) followed by a positive main impulse (MI) in the PC index. Sudden decreases in the solar wind dynamic pressure generate the corresponding sequence of pulses with inverted polarity. These pulses have amplitudes of typically 0.5 in the PC index and a total duration of 10-30 min. Using magnetic recordings from a network of observatories in the polar cap we have examined in detail the development in the polar ionospheric convection following sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes. The PRI impulses are related to the occurrence of a pair of transient dayside reverse convection vortices at cusp latitudes. We conclude that the short negative PRI pulses in the PC index following sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure are caused by the diversion of magnetopause currents along cusp field lines to the polar cap ionosphere as the pressure front sweeps over the magnetosphere. The more extended positive MI main impulses are related to the formation of a pair of forward convection vortices in the dayside auroral oval supported by enhanced Region 1 (R1) field-aligned currents flowing to and from the auroral ionosphere.

  5. Engineering changes to the 0.1m cryogenic wind tunnel at Southampton University

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodyer, M. J.

    1984-01-01

    The more important changes to the 0.1 m cryogenic wind tunnel since its completion in 1977 are outlined. These include detailed improvements in the fan drive to allow higher speeds, and the provision of a test section leg suitable for use with a magnetic suspension and balance system. The instrumentation, data logging, data reduction and tunnel controls were also improved and modernized. A tunnel performance summary is given.

  6. Global Climate Change and Its Potential Impact on Disease Transmission by Salinity-Tolerant Mosquito Vectors in Coastal Zones

    PubMed Central

    Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5–30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross–McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased coastal transmission of mosquito-borne diseases consequent to climate change and a rise in sea levels. It is proposed that the Jaffna peninsula in Sri Lanka may be a useful case study for the impact of rising sea levels on mosquito vectors in tropical coasts. PMID:22723781

  7. Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones.

    PubMed

    Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5?ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5-30?ppt and >30?ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross-McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased coastal transmission of mosquito-borne diseases consequent to climate change and a rise in sea levels. It is proposed that the Jaffna peninsula in Sri Lanka may be a useful case study for the impact of rising sea levels on mosquito vectors in tropical coasts. PMID:22723781

  8. Dynamical response of the magnetotail to changes of the solar wind direction: an MHD modeling perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sergeev, V. A.; Tsyganenko, N. A.; Angelopoulos, V.

    2008-08-01

    We performed global MHD simulations to investigate the magnetotail response to the solar wind directional changes (Vz-variations). These changes, although small, cause significant variations of the neutral sheet shape and location even in the near and middle tail regions. They display a complicated temporal response, in which ~60 to 80% of the final shift of the neutral sheet in Z direction occurs within first 10 15 min (less for faster solar wind), whereas a much longer time (exceeding half hour) is required to reach a new equilibrium. The asymptotic equilibrium shape of the simulated neutral sheet is consistent with predictions of Tsyganenko-Fairfield (2004) empirical model. To visualize a physical origin of the north-south tail motion we compared the values of the total pressure in the northern and southern tail lobes and found a considerable difference (10 15% for only 6° change of the solar wind direction used in the simulation). That difference builds up during the passage of the solar wind directional discontinuity and is responsible for the vertical shift of the neutral sheet, although some pressure difference remains in the near tail even near the new equilibrium. Surprisingly, at a given tailward distance, the response was found to be first initiated in the tail center (the "leader effect"), rather than near the flanks, which can be explained by the wave propagation in the tail, and which may have interesting implications for the substorm triggering studies. The present results have serious implications for the data-based modeling, as they place constraints on the accuracy of tail magnetic configurations to be derived for specific events using data of multi-spacecraft missions, e.g. such as THEMIS.

  9. Do changes in the size of mud flocs affect the acoustic backscatter values recorded by a Vector ADV?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouhnia, Mohamad; Keyvani, Ali; Strom, Kyle

    2014-08-01

    A series of experiments were conducted to examine the effect of mud floc growth on the acoustic back-scatter signal recorded by a Nortek Vector acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV). Several studies have shown that calibration equations can be developed to link the backscatter strength with average suspended sediment concentration (SSC) when the sediment particle size distribution remains constant. However, when mud is present, the process of flocculation can alter the suspended particle size distribution. Past studies have shown that it is still unclear as to the degree of dependence of the calibration equation on changes in floc size. Part of the ambiguity lies in the fact that flocs can be porous and rather loosely packed and therefore will not scatter sound waves as a solid particle would. In addition, direct, detailed measurements of floc size have not accompanied experiments examining the dependence of ADV backscatter and suspended sediment concentration. In this set of experiments, direct measurement of the floc size distribution is made with time in a mixing chamber using a floc camera system. A Vector ADV and an OBS are also placed within the tank to measure acoustic backscatter and SSC as the flocs change size with time; concentration in the experiments ranges from 15 to 90 mg/l. Results showed that the growth of mud flocs did influence the SNR recorded by the Vector ADV, and that the sensitivity of the SNR signal to changes in floc size was higher for flocs with diameters less than ≈80 μm (it kr=1 at a diameter of 80 μm). The response of SNR to changes in floc size and SSC was modeled with a modified sonar equation. If properly calibrated, the model was able to capture the functional behavior of SNR with changes in floc size and concentration. Values of the calibration coefficients showed that while changes in floc diameter up to about 80 μm did alter the SNR, the change was less than what would be expected from a similar change in the size of solid scatterers.

  10. Incidence of Vector-borne Disease and Climate Change: A Study in Semi-arid Algeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blakey, T.; Bounoua, L.

    2012-12-01

    Leishmaniases are among the most important emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases, second only to malaria in terms of the number of affected people. Leishmaniases are endemic in 88 countries worldwide and threaten about 350 million people (WHO, 2007). Since the first reported case of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Saida, Algeria in 1991, 1,275 cases have been recorded (Makhlouf & Houti, 2010) with the vast majority of study-area cases (99%) reported between the years of 2000 and 2009. An investigation of potential climatic indicators for the apparent shift in disease prevalence was conducted by comparing anomalies in the climate data specific to the local pathogen cycle. It was determined that long term climate trends have resulted in conditions that promote the prevalence of ZCL. Increased precipitation have resulted in greater vegetation and promoted host and vector population growth through a trophic cascade. Increased minimum temperatures have lengthened the annual duration of sandfly activity. Short term variations in maximum temperatures, however show a correlation with disease suppression in the subsequent years. These findings indicate a potential to forecast the risk of ZCL infection through models of the trophic cascade and sandfly population growth.

  11. Evolution of dengue in Sri Lanka-changes in the virus, vector, and climate.

    PubMed

    Sirisena, P D N N; Noordeen, F

    2014-02-01

    Despite the presence of dengue in Sri Lanka since the early 1960s, dengue has become a major public health issue, with a high morbidity and mortality. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are the vectors responsible for the transmission of dengue viruses (DENV). The four DENV serotypes (1, 2, 3, and 4) have been co-circulating in Sri Lanka for more than 30 years. The new genotype of DENV-1 has replaced an old genotype, and new clades of DENV-3 genotype III have replaced older clades. The emergence of new clades of DENV-3 in the recent past coincided with an abrupt increase in the number of dengue fever (DF)/dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, implicating this serotype in severe epidemics. Climatic factors play a pivotal role in the epidemiological pattern of DF/DHF in terms of the number of cases, severity of illness, shifts in affected age groups, and the expansion of spread from urban to rural areas. There is a regular incidence of DF/DHF throughout the year, with the highest incidence during the rainy months. To reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with DF/DHF, it is important to implement effective vector control programs in the country. The economic impact of DF/DHF results from the expenditure on DF/DHF critical care units in several hospitals and the cost of case management. PMID:24334026

  12. Effects of Microclimate Condition Changes Due to Land Use and Land Cover Changes on the Survivorship of Malaria Vectors in China-Myanmar Border Region

    PubMed Central

    Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoming; Xu, Tielong; Zhou, Guofa; Wang, Ying; Lee, Ming-Chieh; Hartsel, Joshua A.; Cui, Liwang; Zheng, Bin; Yan, Guiyun

    2016-01-01

    In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission. PMID:27171475

  13. Responses of wind erosion to climate-induced vegetation changes on the Colorado Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Munson, Seth M.; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.

    2011-01-01

    Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 y of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces. PMID:21368143

  14. Causes of change in Northern Hemisphere winter meridional winds and regional hydroclimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simpson, Isla R.; Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Shaw, Tiffany A.

    2016-01-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect precipitation around the world. Broadly speaking, warming increases atmospheric moisture holding capacity, intensifies moisture transports and makes sub-tropical dry regions drier and tropical and mid-to-high-latitude wet regions wetter. Extra-tropical precipitation patterns vary strongly with longitude, however, owing to the control exerted by the storm tracks and quasi-stationary highs and lows or stationary waves. Regional precipitation change will, therefore, also depend on how these aspects of the circulation respond. Current climate models robustly predict a change in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter stationary wave field that brings wetting southerlies to the west coast of North America, and drying northerlies to interior southwest North America and the eastern Mediterranean. Here we show that this change in the meridional wind field is caused by strengthened zonal mean westerlies in the sub-tropical upper troposphere, which alters the character of intermediate-scale stationary waves. Thus, a robust and easily understood model response to global warming is the prime cause of these regional wind changes. However, the majority of models probably overestimate the magnitude of this response because of biases in their climatological representation of the relevant waves, suggesting that winter season wetting of the North American west coast will be notably less than projected by the multi-model mean.

  15. Effect of large and sharp changes of solar wind dynamic pressure on the earths's magnetosphere: analysis of several events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borodkova, N. L.

    2010-02-01

    The magnetosphere and ionosphere response to arrival of large changes of the solar wind dynamic pressure with sharp fronts to the Earth is considered. It is shown that, under an effect of an impulse of solar wind pressure, the magnetic field at a geosynchronous orbit changes: it grows with increasing solar wind pressure and decreases, when the solar wind pressure drops. Energetic particle fluxes also change: on the dayside of the magnetosphere the fluxes grow with arrival of an impulse of solar wind dynamic pressure, and on the nightside the response of energetic particle fluxes depends on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) direction. Under the condition of negative Bz-component of the IMF on the nightside of the magnetosphere, injections of energetic electron fluxes can be observed. It is shown, that large and fast increase of solar wind pressure, accompanied by a weakly negative Bz-component of the IMF, can result in particless’ precipitation on the dayside of the auroral oval, and in the development of a pseudobreakup or substorm on the nightside of the oval. The auroral oval dynamics shows that after passage of an impulse of solar wind dynamic pressure the auroral activity weakens. In other words, the impulse of solar wind pressure in the presence of weakly negative IMF can not only cause the pseudobreakup/substorm development, but control this development as well.

  16. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  17. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ15N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ15N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ15N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean’s largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

  18. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

    PubMed Central

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H.; Cowan, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

  19. Simulated effects of southern hemispheric wind changes on the Pacific oxygen minimum zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Getzlaff, Julia; Dietze, Heiner; Oschlies, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    A coupled ocean biogeochemistry-circulation model is used to investigate the impact of observed past and anticipated future wind changes in the Southern Hemisphere on the oxygen minimum zone in the tropical Pacific. We consider the industrial period until the end of the 21st century and distinguish effects due to a strengthening of the westerlies from effects of a southward shift of the westerlies that is accompanied by a poleward expansion of the tropical trade winds. Our model results show that a strengthening of the westerlies counteracts part of the warming-induced decline in the global marine oxygen inventory. A poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary, however, triggers a significant decrease of oxygen in the tropical oxygen minimum zone. In a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, the poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary and warming-induced increase in stratification contribute equally to the expansion of suboxic waters in the tropical Pacific.

  20. Topological Winding Number Change and Broken Inversion Symmetry in a Hofstadter's Butterfly.

    PubMed

    Wang, Peng; Cheng, Bin; Martynov, Oleg; Miao, Tengfei; Jing, Lei; Taniguchi, Takashi; Watanabe, Kenji; Aji, Vivek; Lau, Chun Ning; Bockrath, Marc

    2015-10-14

    Graphene's quantum Hall features are associated with a π Berry's phase due to its odd topological pseudospin winding number. In nearly aligned graphene-hexagonal BN heterostructures, the lattice and orientation mismatch produce a superlattice potential, yielding secondary Dirac points in graphene's electronic spectrum, and under a magnetic field, a Hofstadter butterfly-like energy spectrum. Here we report an additional π Berry's phase shift when tuning the Fermi level past the secondary Dirac points, originating from a change in topological winding number from odd to even when the Fermi-surface electron orbit begins to enclose the secondary Dirac points. At large hole doping inversion symmetry breaking generates a distinct hexagonal pattern in the longitudinal resistivity versus magnetic field and charge density. Major Hofstadter butterfly features persist up to ∼100 K, demonstrating the robustness of the fractal energy spectrum in these systems. PMID:26401645

  1. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    PubMed

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-01-01

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase. PMID:26842498

  2. Oceanography. Centennial changes in North Pacific anoxia linked to tropical trade winds.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Curtis; Berelson, William; Thunell, Robert; Weber, Thomas; Tems, Caitlin; McManus, James; Crusius, John; Ito, Taka; Baumgartner, Timothy; Ferreira, Vicente; Mey, Jacob; van Geen, Alexander

    2014-08-01

    Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ(15)N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ(15)N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ(15)N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean's largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline. PMID:25104384

  3. Responses of Wind Erosion to Climate-Induced Vegetation Changes on the Colorado Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munson, S. M.; Belnap, J.; Okin, G. S.

    2012-12-01

    Projected increases in aridity throughout the southwestern United States due to anthropogenic climate change will likely cause reductions in perennial vegetation cover, which leaves soil surfaces exposed to erosion. Accelerated rates of dust emission from wind erosion have large implications for ecosystems and human well-being, yet there is poor understanding of the sources and magnitude of dust emission in a hotter and drier climate. Here we use a two-stage approach to compare the susceptibility of grasslands and three different shrublands to wind erosion on the Colorado Plateau and demonstrate how climate can indirectly moderate the magnitude of aeolian sediment flux through different responses of dominant plants in these communities. First, using results from 20 years of vegetation monitoring, we found perennial grass cover in grasslands declined with increasing mean annual temperature in the previous year, whereas shrub cover in shrublands either showed no change or declined as temperature increased, depending on the species. Second, we used these vegetation monitoring results and measurements of soil stability as inputs into a field-validated wind erosion model and found that declines in perennial vegetation cover coupled with disturbance to biological soil crust resulted in an exponential increase in modeled aeolian sediment flux. Thus the effects of increased temperature on perennial plant cover and the correlation of declining plant cover with increased aeolian flux strongly suggest that sustained drought conditions across the southwest will accelerate the likelihood of dust production in the future on disturbed soil surfaces.; Perennial grasses and all perennial vegetation canopy cover (top panel) and modeled aeolian sediment flux (bottom panel) at five wind speeds (15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, and 25.0 ms-1) in relationship to mean annual temperature in the previous year in perennial grasslands across the Colorado Plateau, USA.

  4. Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model.

    PubMed

    Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C

    2010-09-01

    Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model (P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions. PMID:20683620

  5. Impact of climate change upon vector born diseases in Europe and Africa using ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andy

    2010-05-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant human/animal health and socioeconomic impacts. The most important diseases affecting health are vector-borne, such as malaria, Rift Valley Fever and including those that are tick borne, with over 3 billion of the world population at risk. Malaria alone is responsible for at least one million deaths annually, with 80% of malaria deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. The climate has a large impact upon the incidence of vector-borne diseases; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the environmental conditions. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations has been produced within the ENSEMBLES project framework for both the European and African continent. This work will present recent progress in human and animal disease modelling, based on high resolution climate observations and regional climate simulations. Preliminary results will be given as an illustration, including the impact of climate change upon bluetongue (disease affecting the cattle) over Europe and upon malaria and Rift Valley Fever over Africa. Malaria scenarios based on RCM ensemble simulations have been produced for West Africa. These simulations have been carried out using the Liverpool Malaria Model. Future projections highlight that the malaria incidence decreases at the northern edge of the Sahel and that the epidemic belt is shifted southward in autumn. This could lead to significant public health problems in the future as the demography is expected to dramatically rise over Africa for the 21st century.

  6. Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

    2010-09-01

    Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

  7. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission.

    PubMed

    Parham, Paul E; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E; Naumova, Elena N; Ostfeld, Richard S; Ready, Paul D; Thomas, Matthew B; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

  8. Changes in vector species composition and current vector biology and behaviour will favour malaria elimination in Santa Isabel Province, Solomon Islands

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In 2009, Santa Isabel Province in the Solomon Islands embarked on a malaria elimination programme. However, very little is known in the Province about the anopheline fauna, which species are vectors, their bionomics and how they may respond to intensified intervention measures. The purpose of this study was to provide baseline data on the malaria vectors and to ascertain the possibility of successfully eliminating malaria using the existing conventional vector control measures, such as indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN). Methods Entomological surveys were undertaken during October 2009. To determine species composition and distribution larval surveys were conducted across on the whole island. For malaria transmission studies, adult anophelines were sampled using human landing catches from two villages - one coastal and one inland. Results Five Anopheles species were found on Santa Isabel: Anopheles farauti, Anopheles hinesorum, Anopheles lungae, Anopheles solomonis, and Anopheles nataliae. Anopheles hinesorum was the most widespread species. Anopheles farauti was abundant, but found only on the coast. Anopheles punctulatus and Anopheles koliensis were not found. Anopheles farauti was the only species found biting in the coastal village, it was incriminated as a vector in this study; it fed early in the night but equally so indoors and outdoors, and had a low survival rate. Anopheles solomonis was the main species biting humans in the inland village, it was extremely exophagic, with low survival rates, and readily fed on pigs. Conclusion The disappearance of the two major vectors, An. punctulatus and An. koliensis, from Santa Isabel and the predominance of An. hinesorum, a non-vector species may facilitate malaria elimination measures. Anopheles farauti was identified as the main coastal vector with An. solomonis as a possible inland vector. The behaviour of An. solomonis is novel as it has not been previously found biting humans in any numbers. Both species appear to be short-lived, a characteristic that will limit their transmission potential. The early night feeding behaviour and a degree of outdoor biting seen in An. farauti and particularly in An. solomonis will require that their response to IRS and LLIN be closely monitored. In coastal villages, where large, favourable breeding sites allow for high numbers of An. farauti may require the addition of larval control to achieve elimination. PMID:21961990

  9. Electrostatic Solitary Waves in the Solar Wind: Evidence for Instability at Solar Wind Current Sheets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malaspina, David M.; Newman, David L.; Wilson, Lynn Bruce; Goetz, Keith; Kellogg, Paul J.; Kerstin, Kris

    2013-01-01

    A strong spatial association between bipolar electrostatic solitary waves (ESWs) and magnetic current sheets (CSs) in the solar wind is reported here for the first time. This association requires that the plasma instabilities (e.g., Buneman, electron two stream) which generate ESWs are preferentially localized to solar wind CSs. Distributions of CS properties (including shear angle, thickness, solar wind speed, and vector magnetic field change) are examined for differences between CSs associated with ESWs and randomly chosen CSs. Possible mechanisms for producing ESW-generating instabilities at solar wind CSs are considered, including magnetic reconnection.

  10. Spectral Anisotropy of Elsässer Variables in Two-dimensional Wave-vector Space as Observed in the Fast Solar Wind Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Limei; He, Jiansen; Zhang, Lei; Tu, Chuanyi; Marsch, Eckart; Chen, Christopher H. K.; Wang, Xin; Wang, Linghua; Wicks, Robert T.

    2016-01-01

    Intensive studies have been conducted to understand the anisotropy of solar wind turbulence. However, the anisotropy of Elsässer variables ({{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}+/- ) in 2D wave-vector space has yet to be investigated. Here we first verify the transformation based on the projection-slice theorem between the power spectral density {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) and the spatial correlation function {{CF}}2{{D}}({r}\\parallel ,{r}\\perp ). Based on the application of the transformation to the magnetic field and the particle measurements from the WIND spacecraft, we investigate the spectral anisotropy of Elsässer variables ({{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}+/- ), and the distribution of residual energy {E}{{R}}, Alfvén ratio {R}{{A}}, and Elsässer ratio {R}{{E}} in the ({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) space. The spectra {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) of {\\boldsymbol{B}}, {\\boldsymbol{V}}, and {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{major} (the larger of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}+/- ) show a similar pattern that {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) is mainly distributed along a ridge inclined toward the k⊥ axis. This is probably the signature of the oblique Alfvénic fluctuations propagating outwardly. Unlike those of {\\boldsymbol{B}}, {\\boldsymbol{V}}, and {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{major}, the spectrum {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{minor} is distributed mainly along the k⊥ axis. Close to the k⊥ axis, | {E}{{R}}| becomes larger while {R}{{A}} becomes smaller, suggesting that the dominance of magnetic energy over kinetic energy becomes more significant at small k∥. {R}{{E}} is larger at small k∥, implying that {{PSD}}2{{D}}({k}\\parallel ,{k}\\perp ) of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{minor} is more concentrated along the k⊥ direction as compared to that of {{\\boldsymbol{Z}}}{major}. The residual energy condensate at small k∥ is consistent with simulation results in which {E}{{R}} is spontaneously generated by Alfvén wave interaction.

  11. Mars Pathfinder Landing Site: Evidence for a Change in Wind Regime and Climate from Lander and Orbiter Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greeley, R.; Kraft, M. D.; Kuzmin, R. O.; Bridges, N. T.

    1999-01-01

    Surface features related to the wind are observed in data from the Mars Pathfinder lander and from orbit by the Viking Orbiter and Mars Global Surveyor missions. Features seen from the surface include wind tails associated with small rocks, barchanoid duneforms, ripplelike patterns, and ventifact flutes cut into some rocks. Features seen from orbit include wind tails associated with impact craters, ridges inferred to be duneforms, and modified crater rims interpreted to have been eroded and mantled by windblown material. The orientations of these features show two prevailing directions, one inferred to represent winds from the northeast which is consistent with strongest winds predicted by a general circulation model to occur during the Martian northern winter under current conditions, and a second wind pattern oriented approx. 90 degrees to the first. This latter wind could be from the W-NW or from the E-SE and was responsible for cutting the ventifacts and modifying the crater rims. The two wind regimes could reflect a change in climate related to Mars' obliquity or some other, unknown factor. Regardless of the cause, the MPF area has been subjected to a complex pattern of winds and supply of small particles, in which the original surface formed by sedimentary processes from Tiu and Ares Vallis events has been modified by repeated burial and exhumation.

  12. Timing of changes in the solar wind energy input in relation to ionospheric response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulkkinen, T. I.; Palmroth, M.; Janhunen, P.; Koskinen, H. E. J.; McComas, D. J.; Smith, C. W.

    2010-12-01

    We investigate four consecutive substorms using observations and global MHD simulation code GUMICS-4. The solar wind energy input is estimated by the epsilon parameter and evaluated from the simulation by direct integration of the energy transfer through the magnetopause. The ionospheric dissipation is estimated using the AE index and also evaluated by computing the Joule heating from both hemispheres in the simulation. Our results show that there is a clear and repeatable time delay between changes in the solar wind parameters and the energy input through the magnetopause. In the simulation, the Joule heating is quite directly driven by the energy input through the magnetopause, without any significant delays. The AE index shows two distinct responses: when the energy input through the magnetopause increases, the AE index responds with a delay; this can be interpreted as the growth phase. When the energy input decreases, the AE decreases simultaneously, without any significant delay. This indicates that after the onset, the energy input to the ionosphere is directly controlled by the energy input through the magnetopause. The results suggest that the recovery phase timing is determined by the solar wind parameters (with a delay associated with the magnetopause processes), while the onset timing is associated with internal magnetotail and/or magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling processes.

  13. Short communication on regional climate change scenarios and their possible use for impact studies on vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Jacob, Daniela

    2008-12-01

    Atmospheric observations demonstrate that, during the last decades, the climate has changed. As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001, 2007), a mean increase of temperature by 0.09 K per decade was observed globally from 1951 to 1989. Up to now, 2008, this trend has continued. Europe experienced an extraordinary heat wave in summer 2003, with daily mean temperatures being about 10 degrees warmer than the long-term mean. The increase of temperature varies depending on the region and season. It seems to be accompanied by changes in several hydro-meteorological quantities, like number and duration of heat waves, frost periods, storminess, or precipitation. In some regions of Germany, for example, winter precipitation has increased by more than 30% within the last four decades. In addition, very intense precipitation was observed in summer 2002 in parts of the Elbe drainage basin, which faced a severe flooding. The quantification of these changes and their possible impacts on health is a very important topic, for which regional climate change scenarios provide useful information. The analyses of possible climate change focusing on hydro-meteorological quantities, which have a major influence on vectors and rodent reservoirs will be an ongoing challenge for future research. PMID:19030880

  14. An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day-1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  15. Wind Disturbance Produced Changes in Tree Species Assemblage in the Peruvian Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rifai, S. W.; Chambers, J. Q.; Negron Juarez, R. I.; Ramirez, F.; Tello, R.; Alegria Muñoz, W.

    2010-12-01

    Wind disturbance has been a frequently overlooked abiotic cause of mass tree mortality in the Amazon basin. In the Peruvian Amazon these wind disturbances are produced by meteorological events such as convective systems. Downbursts for example produce short term descendent wind speeds that can be in excess of 30 m s-1. These are capable of producing tree blowdowns which have been reported to be as large as 33 km2 in the Amazon basin. We used the chronosequence of Landsat Satellite imagery to find and locate where these blowdowns have occurred in the Loreto region of the Peruvian Amazon. Spectral Mixture Analysis was used to estimate the proportion landcover of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), soil and shade in each pixel. The change in NPV was calculated by subtracting the NPV signal in the Landsat image prior to the blowdown occurrence, from the image following the disturbance. Our prior research has established a linear relationship between tree mortality and change in NPV. It is hypothesized that these mass tree mortality events result in changes in the tree species assemblage of affected forests. Here we present preliminary tree species assemblage data from two sites in the Peruvian Amazon near Iquitos, Peru. The site (ALP) at the Allpahuayo Mishana reserve (3.945 S, 73.455 W) is 30 km south of Iquitos, Peru, and hosts the remnants of a 50 ha blowdown that occurred in either 1992 or 1993. Another site (NAPO) on the Napo river about 60 km north of Iquitos, is the location of an approximately 300 ha blowdown that occurred in 1998. At each site, a 3000 m x 10 m transect encompassing non disturbed and disturbed areas was installed, and trees greater than 10 cm diameter at breast height were measured for diameter, height and were identified to the species. Stem density of trees with diameter at breast height > 10 cm, and tree height appear to be similar both inside and outside the blowdown affected areas of the forests at both sites. At the ALP and NAPO sites the most dramatic change in the tree species assemblage has been a three and an eleven fold increase in the pioneer tree family, Cecropiaceae, respectively. This preliminary data suggests that wind disturbance is capable of producing large shifts in the tree species assemblage of affected Amazon forests.

  16. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Jerez, Sonia; Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Fox Maule, Cathrine; Nikulin, Grigory; Noël, Thomas; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-03-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

  17. Response of Saturn’s Magnetosphere to Changes in the Solar Wind: 3D Global MHD Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, X.; Hansen, K. C.; Ridley, A. J.; de Zeeuw, D.; Zieger, B.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2009-12-01

    At Saturn, both the external (the solar wind) and the internal (the planet’s rotation and internal plasma source) conditions play an important role in affecting the global configuration and dynamics of the magnetosphere. In this study, we use three-dimensional MHD simulations to investigate responses of kronian magnetosphere to changes in the solar wind during one solar rotation. In our simulations, we use idealized time-dependent solar wind conditions with characters typical of those seen at Saturn’s orbit during one solar rotation. We will discuss how Saturn’s global magnetosphere, in particular the global convection and current systems, responds under different solar wind conditions. We will also evaluate the relative importance of the solar wind speed and the IMF orientation in influencing dynamics of Saturn’s magnetosphere.

  18. Potential impacts of climate change on the ecology of dengue and its mosquito vector the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, R. A.; Hayhoe, K.; Presley, S. M.; Allen, L. J. S.; Long, K. R.; Cox, S. B.

    2012-09-01

    Shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns caused by global climate change may have profound impacts on the ecology of certain infectious diseases. We examine the potential impacts of climate change on the transmission and maintenance dynamics of dengue, a resurging mosquito-vectored infectious disease. In particular, we project changes in dengue season length for three cities: Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL and Lubbock, TX. These cities are located on the edges of the range of the Asian tiger mosquito within the United States of America and were chosen as test cases. We use a disease model that explicitly incorporates mosquito population dynamics and high-resolution climate projections. Based on projected changes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower) emission scenarios as simulated by four global climate models, we found that the projected warming shortened mosquito lifespan, which in turn decreased the potential dengue season. These results illustrate the difficulty in predicting how climate change may alter complex systems.

  19. THE ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC AND LORENTZ FORCE VECTORS DURING SIX MAJOR NEUTRAL-LINE FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Petrie, G. J. D.

    2012-11-01

    We analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the abrupt photospheric magnetic changes associated with six major flares using 12 minute, 0.''5 pixel{sup -1} vector magnetograms from NASA's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The six major flares occurred near the main magnetic neutral lines of four active regions, NOAA 11158, 11166, 11283, and 11429. During all six flares the neutral-line field vectors became stronger and more horizontal, in each case almost entirely due to strengthening of the horizontal field components parallel to the neutral line. In all six cases the neutral-line pre-flare fields were more vertical than the reference potential fields, and collapsed abruptly and permanently closer to potential-field tilt angles during every flare, implying that the relaxation of magnetic stress associated with non-potential tilt angles plays a major role during major flares. The shear angle with respect to the reference potential field did not show such a pattern, demonstrating that flare processes do not generally relieve magnetic stresses associated with photospheric magnetic shear. The horizontal fields became significantly and permanently more aligned with the neutral line during the four largest flares, suggesting that the collapsing field is on average more aligned with the neutral line than the pre-flare neutral-line field. The vertical Lorentz force had a large, abrupt, permanent downward change during each of the flares, consistent with loop collapse. The horizontal Lorentz force changes acted mostly parallel to the neutral line in opposite directions on each side, a signature of the fields contracting during the flare, pulling the two sides of the neutral line toward each other. The greater effect of the flares on field tilt than on shear may be explained by photospheric line-tying.

  20. Response of Saturn's Current Sheet Structure to Changes in the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure and IMF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, K. C.; Jia, X.; Gombosi, T. I.

    2010-12-01

    Using our global MHD model of Saturn’s magnetosphere, we investigate the location, shape and motion of Saturn’s current sheet under a variety of situations. Our global MHD model self consistently treats the entire magnetosphere and includes magnetospheric plasma sources from a major disk-like source from Enceladus and the rings and a secondary toroidal plasma source from Titan. The model produces solutions which are not constrained to be symmetric therefore the results are quite useful in trying to extend previous models that have been generated using Cassini data. Because we can carefully control the inputs to our MHD model, we do not have to worry about separating variations due to local time, varying upstream conditions, spacecraft motion or changes in the mass loading rate that often make interpreting the data complicated. We will present results for both steady state, as well as time varying solar wind conditions. Simulations with constant solar wind conditions allow us to study the effect that upsteam dynamic pressure has on both the shape and size of the current sheet. In addition, we will present results from simulations that include sudden changes in the solar wind dynamics pressure as well as the IMF direction. These simulations will allow us to study the current sheet response and to look for features such as current sheet flapping. Our previous studies have shown that the current sheet in our model does in fact reproduce the “bowl-like” behavior expect at most local times. However, at dusk, the current sheet is often quite warped. We will examine the cause of this warping and under what conditions it occurs.

  1. Numerical modeling on air quality in an urban environment with changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction.

    PubMed

    Yassin, Mohamed F

    2013-06-01

    Due to heavy traffic emissions within an urban environment, air quality during the last decade becomes worse year by year and hazard to public health. In the present work, numerical modeling of flow and dispersion of gaseous emissions from vehicle exhaust in a street canyon were investigated under changes of the aspect ratio and wind direction. The three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model which was numerically solved using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The diffusion flow field in the atmospheric boundary layer within the street canyon was studied for different aspect ratios (W/H=1/2, 3/4, and 1) and wind directions (θ=90°, 112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°). The numerical models were validated against wind tunnel results to optimize the turbulence model. The numerical results agreed well with the wind tunnel results. The simulation demonstrated that the minimum concentration at the human respiration height within the street canyon was on the windward side for aspect ratios W/H=1/2 and 1 and wind directions θ=112.5°, 135°, and 157.5°. The pollutant concentration level decreases as the wind direction and aspect ratio increase. The wind velocity and turbulence intensity increase as the aspect ratio and wind direction increase. PMID:23192299

  2. Wind Tunnel Test of an RPV with Shape-Change Control Effector and Sensor Arrays

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raney, David L.; Cabell, Randolph H.; Sloan, Adam R.; Barnwell, William G.; Lion, S. Todd; Hautamaki, Bret A.

    2004-01-01

    A variety of novel control effector concepts have recently emerged that may enable new approaches to flight control. In particular, the potential exists to shift the composition of the typical aircraft control effector suite from a small number of high authority, specialized devices (rudder, aileron, elevator, flaps), toward larger numbers of smaller, less specialized, distributed device arrays. The concept envisions effector and sensor networks composed of relatively small high-bandwidth devices able to simultaneously perform a variety of control functions using feedback from disparate data sources. To investigate this concept, a remotely piloted flight vehicle has been equipped with an array of 24 trailing edge shape-change effectors and associated pressure measurements. The vehicle, called the Multifunctional Effector and Sensor Array (MESA) testbed, was recently tested in NASA Langley's 12-ft Low Speed wind tunnel to characterize its stability properties, control authorities, and distributed pressure sensitivities for use in a dynamic simulation prior to flight testing. Another objective was to implement and evaluate a scheme for actively controlling the spanwise pressure distribution using the shape-change array. This report describes the MESA testbed, design of the pressure distribution controller, and results of the wind tunnel test.

  3. Characterization of the intrinsic and forced variability and climate change evolution of the wind speed in the iberian peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabos, William; Gómez, Guillermo; Sein, Dmitry; Liguori, Giovanni; de Frutos, José Antonio

    2015-04-01

    We quantify the impact of climate change on the surface wind speed field over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using the results of high-resolution EURO-CORDEX ensemble simulations. The dependence of the robustness of the regional climate signal for the wind on the global forcing is investigated. For this purpose we take simulations where different regional models forced by the same Global Coupled Model or Earth System Model. We also evaluate the dependence of the robustness of the climate signal for a given Regional Climate Model, when it is forced by different Global Models. To this end, regions of the Iberian Peninsula with coherent temporal variability in wind speed in each of the models are identified and analyzed using cluster analysis. Then, the robustness of the evolution of the simulated wind speed under the RCP climate change scenarios in the identified regions for the 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 periods in the Iberian Peninsula is analyzed.

  4. Population Genetics of Two Key Mosquito Vectors of Rift Valley Fever Virus Reveals New Insights into the Changing Disease Outbreak Patterns in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Tchouassi, David P.; Bastos, Armanda D. S.; Sole, Catherine L.; Diallo, Mawlouth; Lutomiah, Joel; Mutisya, James; Mulwa, Francis; Borgemeister, Christian; Sang, Rosemary; Torto, Baldwyn

    2014-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in Kenya have increased in frequency and range to include northeastern Kenya where viruses are increasingly being isolated from known (Aedes mcintoshi) and newly-associated (Ae. ochraceus) vectors. The factors contributing to these changing outbreak patterns are unclear and the population genetic structure of key vectors and/or specific virus-vector associations, in particular, are under-studied. By conducting mitochondrial and nuclear DNA analyses on >220 Kenyan specimens of Ae. mcintoshi and Ae. ochraceus, we uncovered high levels of vector complexity which may partly explain the disease outbreak pattern. Results indicate that Ae. mcintoshi consists of a species complex with one of the member species being unique to the newly-established RVF outbreak-prone northeastern region of Kenya, whereas Ae. ochraceus is a homogeneous population that appears to be undergoing expansion. Characterization of specimens from a RVF-prone site in Senegal, where Ae. ochraceus is a primary vector, revealed direct genetic links between the two Ae. ochraceus populations from both countries. Our data strongly suggest that unlike Ae. mcintoshi, Ae. ochraceus appears to be a relatively recent, single 'introduction' into Kenya. These results, together with increasing isolations from this vector, indicate that Ae. ochraceus will likely be of greater epidemiological importance in future RVF outbreaks in Kenya. Furthermore, the overall vector complexity calls into question the feasibility of mosquito population control approaches reliant on genetic modification. PMID:25474018

  5. The ionospheric signatures of flux transfer events and solar wind dynamic pressure changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lockwood, M.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Sandholt, P. E.; Lepping, R. P.

    1990-01-01

    Recent observations of vortical flow patterns in the dayside auroral ionosphere are discussed in terms of two alternative mechanisms: (1) the time-dependent magnetic reconnection in 'flux transfer events' (FTEs); and (2) the action of solar wind dynamic pressure changes at the magnetopause. It is argued that the ionospheric flow signature of an FTE should be a twin vortex, with the mean flow velocity in the central region of the pattern being equal to the velocity of the pattern as a whole. On the other hand, the pulse of enhanced or reduced dynamic pressure is also expected to produce a twin vortex, but with the central plasma flow being generally different in speed from (and almost orthogonal to) the motion of the whole pattern. It is found that, while none of the events discussed here are consistent with the theories of the effects of the dynamic pressure changes, all are well explained in terms of the ionospheric signatures of FTEs.

  6. The National Assessment of Shoreline Change:A GIS Compilation of Vector Shorelines and Associated Shoreline Change Data for the Sandy Shorelines of the California Coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, Cheryl J.; Reid, David

    2006-01-01

    Introduction The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector shorelines and shoreline change rates for the sandy shoreline along the California open coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Beach erosion is a chronic problem along many open-ocean shores of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of shoreline migration. There is also a critical need for shoreline change data that is consistent from one coastal region to another. One purpose of this work is to develop standard, repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing shoreline movement so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of shorelines and shoreline change rates can be made at a National Scale. This data compilation for open-ocean, sandy shorelines of the California coast is one in a series that already includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic Coast (Morton et al., 2004; Morton et al., 2005) and will eventually cover Washington, Oregon, and parts of Hawaii and Alaska. Short- and long-term shoreline change evaluations are determined by comparing the positions of three historical shorelines digitized from maps, with a modern shoreline derived from LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys. Historical shorelines generally represent the following time-periods: 1850s-1880s, 1920s-1930s, and late 1940s-1970s. The most recent shoreline is from data collected between 1997 and 2002. Long-term rates of change are calculated by linear regression using all four shorelines. Short-term rates of change are end-point rate calculations using the two most recent shorelines. Please refer to our full report on shoreline change of the California coastline at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1219/ for additional information regarding methods and results (Hapke et al., 2006). Data in this report are organized into downloadable layers by region (Northern, Central and Southern California) and are provided as vector datasets with metadata. Vector shorelines may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and these sources are included in the dataset metadata. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS as it's GIS mapping tool and contains several data layers (shapefiles) that are used to create a geographic view of the California Coast. These vector data form a basemap comprised of polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

  7. National Assessment of Shoreline Change: A GIS compilation of vector shorelines and associated shoreline change data for the sandy shorelines of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romine, Bradley M.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Barbee, Matthew M.; Dyer, Matthew; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Lim, S. Chyn; Vitousek, Sean; Bochicchio, Christopher; Richmond, Bruce M.

    2012-01-01

    Sandy ocean beaches are a popular recreational destination, and often are surrounded by communities that consist of valuable real estate. Development is increasing despite the fact that coastal infrastructure may be repeatedly subjected to flooding and erosion. As a result, the demand for accurate information regarding past and present shoreline changes is increasing. Working with researchers from the University of Hawaii, investigators with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project have compiled a comprehensive database of digital vector shorelines and shoreline-change rates for the islands of Kauai, Oahu, and Maui, Hawaii. No widely accepted standard for analyzing shoreline change currently exists. Current measurement and rate-calculation methods vary from study to study, precluding the combination of study results into statewide or regional assessments. The impetus behind the National Assessment was to develop a standardized method for measuring changes in shoreline position that is consistent from coast to coast. The goal was to facilitate the process of periodically and systematically updating the measurements in an internally consistent manner. A detailed report on shoreline change for Kauai, Maui, and Oahu that contains a discussion of the data presented here is available and cited in the Geospatial Data section of this report.

  8. Assessing Southern Hemisphere Westerly Wind Changes during the Last Glacial Maximum using Paleo-data Synthesis (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohfeld, K. E.; Graham, R. M.; De Boer, A. M.; Wolff, E. W.; Sime, L. C.; Le Quere, C.; Bopp, L.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in the strength and position of Southern Hemisphere westerly winds during the last glacial cycle have been invoked to explain glacial-interglacial climate fluctuations. However, neither paleo models nor paleodata agree on the magnitude, or even the sign, of the change in wind strength and latitude during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), compared to the recent past. This study synthesizes paleo-environmental data that have been used to infer changes in winds during the LGM compared with the late Holocene. These compilations include changes in terrestrial moisture, dust deposition, and ocean productivity, along with summaries of previously published information on sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere. Our compilations of terrestrial moisture from 94 sites and dust deposition from 87 sites show generally drier conditions for the LGM between 0 and 40S, with wetter conditions along the west coasts and drying along the east coasts of continents. LGM dust deposition rates ranged from 2 to 4.5 times higher over the Southern Ocean and about 13 times higher over the Antarctic continent. For the oceans, reconstructed changes in SSTs show maximum cooling (>4 C) in the modern-day Subantarctic Zone, coincident with a region of enhanced export production during the LGM compared with today. We find that any hypothesis of LGM wind and climate change needs to provide a plausible explanation for increased moisture on the west coast of continents, cooler temperatures and higher productivity in the Subantarctic Zone, and reductions in Agulhas leakage around southern Africa. Our comparison suggests that an overall strengthening, an equatorward displacement, or no change at all in winds could all be interpreted as consistent with observations. If a single cause related to the southern westerlies is sought for all the evidence presented, then an equatorward displacement or strengthening of the winds would be consistent with the largest proportion of the data evidence. However, other processes, such as weakening or poleward shifts in winds, a weakened hydrological cycle, extended sea-ice cover, and changed buoyancy fluxes, cannot be ruled out as potential explanations of observed changes in moisture, surface temperature, and productivity. We contend that resolving the position and strength of westerly winds during the LGM remains elusive based on data reconstructions alone. However, we believe that these data reconstructions of environmental conditions can be used in conjunction with model simulations to identify which processes best represent westerly wind conditions during the LGM.

  9. The trophic responses of two different rodent-vector-plague systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-02-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. PMID:25540277

  10. Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherwood, Steven C.; Nishant, Nidhi

    2015-05-01

    We present an updated version of the radiosonde dataset homogenized by Iterative Universal Kriging (IUKv2), now extended through February 2013, following the method used in the original version (Sherwood et al 2008 Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data J. Clim. 21 5336-52). This method, in effect, performs a multiple linear regression of the data onto a structural model that includes both natural variability, trends, and time-changing instrument biases, thereby avoiding estimation biases inherent in traditional homogenization methods. One modification now enables homogenized winds to be provided for the first time. This, and several other small modifications made to the original method sometimes affect results at individual stations, but do not strongly affect broad-scale temperature trends. Temperature trends in the updated data show three noteworthy features. First, tropical warming is equally strong over both the 1959-2012 and 1979-2012 periods, increasing smoothly and almost moist-adiabatically from the surface (where it is roughly 0.14 K/decade) to 300 hPa (where it is about 0.25 K/decade over both periods), a pattern very close to that in climate model predictions. This contradicts suggestions that atmospheric warming has slowed in recent decades or that it has not kept up with that at the surface. Second, as shown in previous studies, tropospheric warming does not reach quite as high in the tropics and subtropics as predicted in typical models. Third, cooling has slackened in the stratosphere such that linear trends since 1979 are about half as strong as reported earlier for shorter periods. Wind trends over the period 1979-2012 confirm a strengthening, lifting and poleward shift of both subtropical westerly jets; the Northern one shows more displacement and the southern more intensification, but these details appear sensitive to the time period analysed. There is also a trend toward more easterly winds in the middle and upper troposphere of the deep tropics.

  11. Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

    2014-12-01

    The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

  12. Wind Characterization for the Assessment of Collision Risk During Flight Level Changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carreno, Victor; Chartrand, Ryan

    2009-01-01

    A model of vertical wind gradient is presented based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wind data. The objective is to have an accurate representation of wind to be used in Collision Risk Models (CRM) of aircraft procedures. Depending on how an aircraft procedure is defined, wind and the different characteristics of the wind will have a more severe or less severe impact on distances between aircraft. For the In-Trail Procedure, the non-linearity of the vertical wind gradient has the greatest impact on longitudinal distance. The analysis in this paper extracts standard deviation, mean, maximum, and linearity characteristics from the NOAA data.

  13. Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

    As the world's most rapidly growing source of energy, wind power has vast potential for mitigating climate change and advancing global environmental sustainability. Yet, the challenges facing wind energy remain both complex and substantial. Two such challenges are: 1) wildlife impacts; and 2) perceived negative effects on tourism. This dissertation examines these challenges in a multi-paper format, and also investigates the role that climate change perceptions play in garnering public support for wind power. The first paper assesses optimal approaches for addressing wind power's wildlife impacts. Comparative analysis reveals that avian mortality from turbines ranks far behind avian mortality from a number of other anthropogenic sources. Additionally, although bats have recently emerged as more vulnerable to wind turbines than birds, they are generally less federally protected. The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) protects over 800 bird species, regardless of their threatened or endangered status. Moreover, it criminalizes the incidental take of birds without a permit and simultaneously grants no permits for such incidental take, thereby creating a legal conundrum for the wind industry. An examination of the legislative and case history of the MBTA, however, reveals that wind operators are not likely to be prosecuted for incidental take if they cooperate with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and take reasonable steps to reduce siting and operational impacts. Furthermore, this study's analysis reveals modest wildlife impacts from wind power, in comparison with numerous other energy sources. Scientific-research, legal, and policy recommendations are provided to update the present legal and regulatory regime under the MBTA and to minimize avian and bat impacts. For instance, FWS should: establish comprehensive federal guidelines for wind facility siting, permitting, monitoring, and mitigation; and promulgate regulations under the MBTA for the issuance of incidental take permits at wind facilities. Equal protections for bats are also recommended. In examining the potential effect of offshore wind power on coastal tourism, the second paper reports the findings of a summer 2007 survey of over 1,000 out-of-state tourists at Delaware beaches. Randomly sampled beachgoers were shown photo-simulations of wind turbines at increasing distances from shore and asked how each simulation would affect visitation. With wind turbines located six miles offshore, approximately one-quarter would switch to a different beach. This stated avoidance, however, diminishes with increasing wind project distance from shore. Additionally, stated avoidance of a beach with turbines six miles offshore is exceeded by: avoidance of a beach with an equidistant, inland, fossil fuel power plant; attraction to a beach in order to see turbines six miles offshore; and the likelihood of paying for an offshore wind boat tour. Further, logistic regression modeling reveals that neither trip cost nor income significantly influences the likelihood of visiting a beach with offshore wind. These findings suggest that to limit beach avoidance, offshore wind developers could site wind facilities further from shore, particularly in areas with high recreational use. Moreover, with wind turbines six miles offshore serving more as an attraction than as a deterrent, offshore wind development may, in fact, bolster local tourism revenues. The third study examines public perceptions of climate change and the link between those perceptions and support for wind power, both in general and with respect to specific offshore sites. Analyzing data from five surveys, this research uncovers low climate awareness and concern levels overall. Respondents demonstrate a poor understanding of climate change impacts and of how to effectively address climate change. In accordance with the New Ecological Paradigm, still fewer are concerned about climate change. The issue ranks 6th in Delaware and 8th in Cape Cod as a reason for local project support, behind such issues as energy independence, electricity rates, air quality, and fishing and boating. Although disproportionately high percentages in Delaware and Cape Cod support taking climate action now - regardless of significant economic costs - this support appears to stem from the desire for climate mitigation's co-benefits, rather than from the desire to mitigate climate change itself. Furthermore, strong support for taking gradual or no climate action steps reveals evidence for an inaccurate conceptualization of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere and of long-term climate change impacts. Nevertheless, those aware of, and concerned about, climate change, exhibit significantly stronger support for wind power. Climate communicators should therefore: focus on correcting faulty cultural models of climate change, while continuing to provide accurate climate information to the public; and consider discussing the co-benefits of addressing climate change, in addition to the direct, climate mitigation benefits. Through this improved understanding, enhanced political will for addressing climate change through wind energy may be at hand.

  14. Acute effects of changes to the gravitational vector on the eye.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Allison P; Swan, Jacob G; Phillips, Scott D; Knaus, Darin A; Kattamis, Nicholas T; Toutain-Kidd, Christine M; Zegans, Michael E; Fellows, Abigail M; Buckey, Jay C

    2016-04-15

    Intraocular pressure (IOP) initially increases when an individual enters microgravity compared with baseline values when an individual is in a seated position. This has been attributed to a headward fluid shift that increases venous pressures in the head. The change in IOP exceeds changes measured immediately after moving from seated to supine postures on Earth, when a similar fluid shift is produced. Furthermore, central venous and cerebrospinal fluid pressures are at or below supine position levels when measured initially upon entering microgravity, unlike when moving from seated to supine postures on Earth, when these pressures increase. To investigate the effects of altering gravitational forces on the eye, we made ocular measurements on 24 subjects (13 men, 11 women) in the seated, supine, and prone positions in the laboratory, and upon entering microgravity during parabolic flight. IOP in microgravity (16.3 ± 2.7 mmHg) was significantly elevated above values in the seated (11.5 ± 2.0 mmHg) and supine (13.7 ± 3.0 mmHg) positions, and was significantly less than pressure in the prone position (20.3 ± 2.6 mmHg). In all measurements,P< 0.001. Choroidal area was significantly increased in subjects in a microgravity environment (P< 0.007) compared with values from subjects in seated (increase of 0.09 ± 0.1 mm(2)) and supine (increase of 0.06 ± 0.09 mm(2)) positions. IOP results are consistent with the hypothesis that hydrostatic gradients affect IOP, and may explain how IOP can increase beyond supine values in microgravity when central venous and intracranial pressure do not. Understanding gravitational effects on the eye may help develop hypotheses for how microgravity-induced visual changes develop. PMID:26662052

  15. Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases: Getting A Grip on Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glass, G. E.; Ellis, H.

    2011-12-01

    Pathogens that are transmitted by arthropods to humans kill millions of people a year and have long been identified as systems likely affected by climate change. Despite this, there has been a long controversy of how to evaluate the responses of these infectious disease systems to climatic conditions so that meaningful programmatic dcisions can be made. We briefly review the rationale for overall expectations, using them to identify both the temporal and spatial resolution needed for decision making and then discuss progress to date, using the world global malaria eradication program as an example.

  16. A Change of Inertia-Supporting the Thrust Vector Control of the Space Launch System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dziubanek, Adam J.

    2012-01-01

    The Space Launch System (SLS) is America's next launch vehicle. To utilize the vehicle more economically, heritage hardware from the Space Transportation System (STS) will be used when possible. The Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) actuators could possibly be used in the core stage of the SLS. The dynamic characteristics of the SRB actuator will need to be tested on an Inertia Load Stand (ILS) that has been converted to Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). The inertia on the pendulum of the ILS will need to be changed to match the SSME inertia. In this testing environment an SRB actuator can be tested with the equivalent resistence of an SSME.

  17. The Structural Changes of Tropical Cyclones Upon Interaction with Vertical Wind Shear

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ritchie, Elizabeth A.

    2003-01-01

    The Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) provided a unique opportunity to observe the distributions and document the roles of important atmospheric factors that impact the development of the core asymmetries and core structural changes of tropical cyclones embedded in vertical wind shear. The state-of-the-art instruments flown on the NASA DC-8 and ER-2, in addition to those on the NOAA aircraft, provided a unique set of observations that documented the core structure throughout the depth of the tropical cyclone. These data have been used to conduct a combined observational and modeling study using a state-of-the-art, high- resolution mesoscale model to examine the role of the environmental vertical wind shear in producing tropical cyclone core asymmetries, and the effects on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones.The scientific objectives of this study were to obtain in situ measurements that would allow documentation of the physical mechanisms that influence the development of the asymmetric convection and its effect on the core structure of the tropical cyclone.

  18. Could a change in magnetic field geometry cause the break in the wind-activity relation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidotto, A. A.; Donati, J.-F.; Jardine, M.; See, V.; Petit, P.; Boisse, I.; Boro Saikia, S.; Hbrard, E.; Jeffers, S. V.; Marsden, S. C.; Morin, J.

    2016-01-01

    Wood et al. suggested that mass-loss rate is a function of X-ray flux (dot{M}? F_x^{1.34}) for dwarf stars with Fx ? Fx,6 ? 106 erg cm-2 s-1. However, more active stars do not obey this relation. These authors suggested that the break at Fx,6 could be caused by significant changes in magnetic field topology that would inhibit stellar wind generation. Here, we investigate this hypothesis by analysing the stars in Wood et al. sample that had their surface magnetic fields reconstructed through Zeeman-Doppler Imaging (ZDI). Although the solar-like outliers in the dot{M} - Fx relation have higher fractional toroidal magnetic energy, we do not find evidence of a sharp transition in magnetic topology at Fx,6. To confirm this, further wind measurements and ZDI observations at both sides of the break are required. As active stars can jump between states with highly toroidal to highly poloidal fields, we expect significant scatter in magnetic field topology to exist for stars with Fx ? Fx,6. This strengthens the importance of multi-epoch ZDI observations. Finally, we show that there is a correlation between Fx and magnetic energy, which implies that dot{M} - magnetic energy relation has the same qualitative behaviour as the original dot{M} - Fx relation. No break is seen in any of the Fx - magnetic energy relations.

  19. Modeling flow over roughness changes and applications to wind energy for sites on the Great Lakes (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, P. A.; Salmon, J.; Weng, W.

    2010-12-01

    The wind energy resource offshore is not well understood in the Great Lakes area. This is unfortunate as potential offshore wind farm sites are attracting great interest. In an effort to improve our knowledge of the offshore resource, data are now being collected in specific locations. Preferred Great Lakes wind farm sites are in relatively shallow water reasonably close to shore. Airflow over these sites will often be within a transition zone as air flows from a rough land surface to a smoother lake surface. There will also often be changes in the thermal stratification of the air column within this Internal Boundary Layer (IBL). For long fetches and heights of order 100m we can formulate and solve the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We make boundary-layer approximations for pressure and assume that along-wind diffusion is minimal. Effects of gentle terrain can be added separately. Results suggest that relatively long fetches of order 100 km are required before winds at 100m fully adjust to the smoother lake surface. Over Lakes Erie and Ontario winds are frequently from the 180-270 degree quadrant and this suggests that the wind resource should be better in the northern (Canadian) half of these lakes. We illustrate this with energy density plots for locations near lakes Erie and Ontario.

  20. Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H S; Glascoe, L; Lundquist, J; Wharton, S

    2010-02-24

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy.

  1. Agents of change on Mars' northern dunes: CO2 ice and wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, C. J.; Diniega, S.; Bridges, N.; Byrne, S.; Dundas, C.; McEwen, A.; Portyankina, G.

    2015-05-01

    Both wind and seasonal CO2 ice sculpt the dunes of Mars in today's climate. The High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has returned extensive temporal coverage of changes on the north polar dunes for nearly four Mars years. The processes driving dune morphology changes such as the formation of new alcoves have been investigated. Considerable interannual variability has been observed. Most changes occur in the period of time when HiRISE cannot image: late summer and fall when light levels are too low to see subtle changes on the dunes and the polar hood obscures the surface, and winter when the cap is in polar night. This is consistent with seasonal control but does not allow us to directly differentiate between eolian processes vs. CO2 ice as the driving agent for alcove formation. Circumstantial evidence and observations of analog processes in the southern mid-latitudes however implicates processes associated with frost emplacement and removal.

  2. Solar-wind-driven changes to the ionospheric electric potential lead to changes in tropospheric temperature and geopotential height

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, Mai Mai; Chisham, Gareth; Freeman, Mervyn P.

    2015-04-01

    There are a large number of responses, on the day-to-day timescale, of the dynamics of the troposphere to regional changes in the downward current of the global atmospheric electric circuit (GEC). They provide compelling evidence that, via the GEC, the solar wind plays a role in influencing surface weather and climate. We use reanalysis data to estimate the altitude and time lag dependence of one such response - the Mansurov effect. This effect was first observed as a correlation between the duskward component By of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and surface pressure anomalies in Antarctica. Additionally, we have more recently shown that the polar Mansurov effect can affect mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves, the amplitude of the effect being comparable to typical initial analysis uncertainties in ensemble numerical weather prediction. Here we shed light on the origins of the polar surface effect by examining the correlation between IMF By and geopotential height anomalies throughout the Antarctic troposphere and lower stratosphere. We find that the correlation is highly statistically significant within the troposphere, and not so in the stratosphere. The peak in the correlation occurs at greater time lags at the tropopause (~ 6 - 8 days) and in the mid troposphere (~ 4 days) than in the lower troposphere (~ 1 day). This supports a mechanism involving the action on lower tropospheric clouds of the GEC, modified by variations in the solar wind (through modulations of the spatial variation in ionospheric potential). The increase in time lag with increasing altitude is consistent with the upward propagation by conventional atmospheric processes of the solar wind-induced variability in the lower troposphere. This is in contrast to the downward propagation of atmospheric effects to the lower troposphere from the stratosphere due to solar variability-driven mechanisms involving ultraviolet radiation or energetic particle precipitation. We also find a correlation between IMF By and the tropospheric air temperature anomaly, which is of lower statistical significance than the geopotential height effect described above. Up to altitudes of 3 km, the anomalies in air temperature are related to the geopotential height by the environmental lapse rate, and therefore considered to be real and to be part of the Mansurov effect. The mean air temperature anomaly across Antarctica associated with the Mansurov effect is up to 0.8 K.

  3. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Bruno M; Rangel, Elizabeth F; Ready, Paul D; Vale, Mariana M

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector's climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: "stabilization" and "high increase". Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. PMID:26619186

  4. Changes in fluxes of heat, H2O, CO2 caused by a large wind farm

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Crop Wind Energy Experiment (CWEX) provides a platform to investigate the effect of wind turbines and large wind farms on surface fluxes of momentum, heat, moisture and carbon dioxide (CO2). In 2010 and 2011, eddy covariance flux stations were installed between two lines of turbines at the south...

  5. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

    PubMed Central

    Parham, Paul E.; Waldock, Joanna; Christophides, George K.; Hemming, Deborah; Agusto, Folashade; Evans, Katherine J.; Fefferman, Nina; Gaff, Holly; Gumel, Abba; LaDeau, Shannon; Lenhart, Suzanne; Mickens, Ronald E.; Naumova, Elena N.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Ready, Paul D.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge; Michael, Edwin

    2015-01-01

    Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems. PMID:25688012

  6. Pharmacological analysis of calcium transients in response to gravity vector change in Arabidopsis hypocotyls and petioles.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toyota, M.; Furuichi, T.; Tatsumi, H.; Sokabe, M.

    Plants regulate their growth and morphology in response to gravity field known as gravitropism in general In the process of gravitropism gravity sensing will form the critical earliest event which is supposed to take place in specialized cells statocytes such as columella cells and shoot endodermal cells Although gravistimulation is assumed to be converted into certain intracellular signals the underlying transduction mechanisms have hardly been explored One of the potential candidates for the intracellular signals is an increase in the cytoplasmic free calcium concentration Ca 2 c Here we measured Ca 2 c changes induced by gravistimulation in seedlings of Arabidopsis thaliana expressing aequorin as a calcium reporter When a plate of seedlings was turned through 180 r Ca 2 c transiently increased within 50 s and decayed exponentially with a time constant of ca 60 s The amplitude of the Ca 2 c increase was independent of the angular velocity of the rotation The Ca 2 c increase was reversibly blocked by extracellularly applied potential mechanosensitive channel blockers La 3 Gd 3 or a Ca 2 chelator BAPTA indicating that it arose from Ca 2 -influx via Ca 2 -permeable channel s on the plasma membrane Furthermore the Ca 2 c increase was attenuated by actin-disrupting drugs latrunculin B cytochalasin B but not by microtuble-disrupting drugs oryzalin nocodazole indicating that the activation of

  7. Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

    PubMed

    Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Manga, Lucien; Bagayoko, Magaran; Sommerfeld, Johannes

    2015-04-01

    Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups. PMID:25688013

  8. The Impacts of Land Use Change on Malaria Vector Abundance in a Water-Limited Highland Region of Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stryker, J.; Bomblies, A.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically-based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability.

  9. The impacts of land use change on malaria vector abundance in a water-limited, highland region of Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Stryker, Jody J; Bomblies, Arne

    2012-12-01

    Changes in land use and climate are expected to alter the risk of malaria transmission in areas where rainfall limits vector abundance. We use a coupled hydrology-entomology model to investigate the effects of land use change on hydrological processes impacting mosquito abundance in a highland village of Ethiopia. Land use affects partitioning of rainfall into infiltration and runoff that reaches small-scale topographic depressions, which constitute the primary breeding habitat of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes. A physically based hydrology model isolates hydrological mechanisms by which land use impacts pool formation and persistence, and an agent-based entomology model evaluates the response of mosquito populations. This approach reproduced observed interannual variability in mosquito abundance between the 2009 and 2010 wet seasons. Several scenarios of land cover were then evaluated using the calibrated, field-validated model. Model results show variation in pool persistence and depth, as well as in mosquito abundance, due to land use changes alone. The model showed particular sensitivity to surface roughness, but also to root zone uptake. Scenarios in which land use was modified from agriculture to forest generally resulted in lowest mosquito abundance predictions; classification of the entire domain as rainforest produced a 34% decrease in abundance compared to 2010 results. This study also showed that in addition to vegetation type, spatial proximity of land use change to habitat locations has an impact on mosquito abundance. This modeling approach can be applied to assess impacts of climate and land use conditions that fall outside of the range of previously observed variability. PMID:23212728

  10. Changing Malaria Prevalence on the Kenyan Coast since 1974: Climate, Drugs and Vector Control

    PubMed Central

    Snow, Robert W.; Kibuchi, Eliud; Karuri, Stella W.; Sang, Gilbert; Gitonga, Caroline W.; Mwandawiro, Charles; Bejon, Philip; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Progress toward reducing the malaria burden in Africa has been measured, or modeled, using datasets with relatively short time-windows. These restricted temporal analyses may miss the wider context of longer-term cycles of malaria risk and hence may lead to incorrect inferences regarding the impact of intervention. Methods 1147 age-corrected Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence (PfPR2-10) surveys among rural communities along the Kenyan coast were assembled from 1974 to 2014. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive generalized linear mixed model was used to interpolate to 279 small areas for each of the 41 years since 1974. Best-fit polynomial splined curves of changing PfPR2-10 were compared to a sequence of plausible explanatory variables related to rainfall, drug resistance and insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use. Results P. falciparum parasite prevalence initially rose from 1974 to 1987, dipped in 1991–92 but remained high until 1998. From 1998 onwards prevalence began to decline until 2011, then began to rise through to 2014. This major decline occurred before ITNs were widely distributed and variation in rainfall coincided with some, but not all, short-term transmission cycles. Emerging resistance to chloroquine and introduction of sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine provided plausible explanations for the rise and fall of malaria transmission along the Kenyan coast. Conclusions Progress towards elimination might not be as predictable as we would like, where natural and extrinsic cycles of transmission confound evaluations of the effect of interventions. Deciding where a country lies on an elimination pathway requires careful empiric observation of the long-term epidemiology of malaria transmission. PMID:26107772

  11. Assessment and Analysis of QuikSCAT Vector Wind Products for the Gulf of Mexico: A Long-Term and Hurricane Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Neha; DSa, Eurico

    2008-01-01

    The northern Gulf of Mexico is a region that has been frequently impacted in recent years by natural disasters such as hurricanes. The use of remote sensing data such as winds from NASA's QuikSCAT satellite sensor would be useful for emergency preparedness during such events. In this study, the performance of QuikSCAT products, including JPL's latest Level 2B (L2B) 12.5 km swath winds, were evaluated with respect to buoy-measured winds in the Gulf of Mexico for the period January 2005 to February 2007. Regression analyses indicated better accuracy of QuikSCAT's L2B DIRTH, 12.5 km than the Level 3 (L3), 25 km wind product. QuikSCAT wind data were compared directly with buoy data keeping a maximum time interval of 20 min and spatial interval of 0.1 (?10 km). R2 values for moderate wind speeds were 0.88 and 0.93 for L2B, and 0.75 and 0.89 for L3 for speed and direction, respectively. QuikSCAT wind comparisons for buoys located offshore were better than those located near the coast. Hurricanes that took place during 2002-06 were studied individually to obtain regressions of QuikSCAT versus buoys for those events. Results show QuikSCAT's L2B DIRTH wind product compared well with buoys during hurricanes up to the limit of buoy measurements. Comparisons with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) best track analyses indicated QuikSCAT winds to be lower than those obtained by NHC, possibly due to rain contamination, while buoy measurements appeared to be constrained at high wind speeds. This study has confirmed good agreement of the new QuikSCAT L2B product with buoy measurements and further suggests its potential use during extreme weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.

  12. Wind extremes in the North Sea basin under climate change: an ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Winter, R.; Ruessink, G.; Sterl, A.

    2012-12-01

    Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Analyzing changes in a changing climate implies that several uncertainties need to be taken into account. First, there is the uncertainty in climate experiments, which represents the possible development of the emission of greenhouse gases. Second, there is uncertainty between the climate models that are used to analyze the effect of different climate experiments. The third uncertainty is the natural variability of the climate. When this system variability is large, small trends will be difficult to detect. The natural variability results in statistical uncertainty, especially for events with high return values. We addressed the first two types of uncertainties for extreme wind conditions in the North Sea using 12 CMIP5 GCMs. To evaluate the differences between the climate experiments, two climate experiments (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) from 2050-2100 are compared with historical runs, running from 1950-2000. Rcp4.5 is considered to be a middle climate experiment and rcp8.5 represents high-end climate scenarios. The projections of the 12 GCMs for a given scenario illustrate model uncertainty. We focus on the North Sea basin, because changes in wind conditions could have a large impact on safety of the densely populated North Sea coast, an area that has already a high exposure to flooding. Our results show that, consistent with ERA-Interim results, the annual maximum wind speed in the historical run demonstrates large interannual variability. For the North Sea, the annual maximum wind speed is not projected to change in either rcp4.5 or rcp8.5. In fact, the differences in the 12 GCMs are larger than the difference between the three experiments. Furthermore, our results show that, the variation in direction of annual maximum wind speed is large and this precludes a firm statement on climate-change induced changes in these directions. Nonetheless, most models indicate a decrease in annual maximum wind speed from south-eastern directions and an increase from south-western and western directions. This might be caused by a poleward shift of the storm track. The amount of wind from north-west and north-north-west, wind directions that are responsible for the development of extreme storm surges in the southern part of the North Sea, are not projected to change. However, North Sea coasts that have the longest fetch for western direction, e.g. the German Bight, may encounter more often high storm surge levels and extreme waves when the annual maximum wind will indeed be more often from western direction.

  13. Ground winds and winds aloft Edwards AFB, California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, D. L.; Brown, S. C.

    1977-01-01

    Ground level runway wind statistics cover crosswind, tailwind, and headwind reversal percentage frequencies with respect to month and hour for the two major runways. Also presented are bivariate normal wind statistics for a 90 degree flight azimuth for altitudes 0 through 27 km. Wind probability distributions, synthetic vector wind profiles, and statistics for any rotation of axes are computed from five given parameters.

  14. Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Fernández, María Soledad; Santini, María Soledad; Cavia, Regino; Sandoval, Adolfo Enrique; Pérez, Adriana Alicia; Acardi, Soraya; Salomón, Oscar Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis. PMID:24271040

  15. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Bruno M.; Ready, Paul D.

    2015-01-01

    Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. PMID:26619186

  16. A century of glacier change in the Wind River Range, WY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeVisser, Mark H.; Fountain, Andrew G.

    2015-03-01

    The Wind River Range spans roughly 200 km along the continental divide in western Wyoming and encompasses at least 269 glaciers and perennial snowfields totaling 34.34 ± 0.13 km2 (2006), including Gannett Glacier, the largest glacier (2.81 km2) in the continental U.S. outside of Washington State. To track changing glacier and perennial snow surface area over the past century we used historic maps, aerial photography, and geologic evidence evident in said imagery. Since the end of the Little Ice Age (~ 1900), when the glaciers retreated from their moraines, to 2006 the ice-covered area shrank by ~ 47%. The main driver of surface area change was air temperature, with glaciers at lower elevations shrinking faster than those at higher elevations. The total contribution of ice wastage to late summer stream flow ranged from 0.4 to 1.5%, 0.9 to 2.8%, 1.7 to 5.4%, and 3.4 to 10.9% in four different watersheds, none of which exceeded 7% glacier cover. Results from previous studies were difficult to include because of differences in interpretation of glacier boundaries, because of poor imagery, or to extensive seasonal snow. These difficulties highlight potential problems in combining data sets from different studies and underscores the importance of reexamining past observations to ensure consistent interpretation.

  17. Land-Based Wind Potential Changes in the Southeastern United States (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, J. O.

    2013-09-01

    Recent advancements in utility-scale wind turbine technology and pricing have vastly increased the potential land area where turbines can be deployed in the United States. This presentation quantifies the new developable land potential (e.g., capacity curves), visually identifies new areas for possible development (e.g., new wind resource maps), and begins to address deployment barriers to wind in new areas for modern and future turbine technology.

  18. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  19. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

    2014-01-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  20. Overwinter Changes in Wind Erodibility of Clay Loam Soils in Southern Alberta

    SciTech Connect

    Bullock, M S.; Larney, F. J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C. ); Feng, Y

    2001-03-21

    Soil dry aggregate size distribution (DASD) and surface roughness are important factors affecting wind erodibility. This study monitored overwinter changes in DASD and surface roughness and identified relationships with climatic variables in the chinook-dominated region of southern Alberta. A different site was monitored in each of three winters (18 Sept. 1992 to 12 May 1993; 26 Oct. 1993 to 29 Apr. 1994; 30 Aug. 1994 to 24 May 1995) on Dark Brown Chernozemic clay loams (fine-loamy, mixed, Typic Haploborolls). The DASD was expressed as geometric mean diameter (GMD) and wind erodible fraction (EF). The GMD ranged from 1.88 to 0.08 mm in 1992-1993, from 9.05 to 1.17 mm in 1993-1994, and from 4.71 to 0.80 mm in 1994-1995. The EF range from 38.9 to 74.0% in 1992-1993, from 12.6 to 43.7% in 1993-1994, and 31.3 to 55.% in 1994-1995. Surface roughness was measured parallel (Cpar) to tillage direction on two of the sites. Using the chain method, Cper ranged from 15.1 to 3.7% in 1993-199 4 and from 14.4 to 3.3% in 1994-1995. Regression analysis with time revealed significant exponential decay for GMD (R2= 0.57 in 1992-1993, 0.97 in 1993-1994, and 0.78 in 1994-1995) and Cpar (R2= 0.98 in 1993-1994, 0.91 in 1994-1995) and a positive linear fit for EF (R2= 0.57 in 1992-1993, 0.91 in 1993-1994, and 0.62 in 1994-1995). Three overwinter periods, differentiated by the timing and form of precipitation and designated as''fall rain/snow'',''winter snow'', and''spring snow/rain'', were used to assess the changes in EF using cumulative freeze-thaw cycles, precipitation, and snow cover

  1. Potential impacts of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsunematsu, N.; Dairaku, K.; Hirano, J.

    2013-12-01

    To investigate future changes in summertime precipitation amounts over the Japanese islands and their relations to the topographical heights, this study analyzed 20 km horizontal grid-spacing regional climate model downscalings of MIROC3.2-hires 20C3M and SRES-A1B scenario data for the periods of 1981-2000 and 2081-2100. Results indicate the remarkable increases in June-July-August mean daily precipitation in the west and south sides (windward sides) of the mountainous regions, especially in western Japan where heavy rainfall is frequently observed in the recent climate. The remarkable increases in summertime precipitation are likely to occur not only in high altitude areas but also at low altitudes. The occurrence frequencies of precipitation greater than 100 mm/day would also increase in such areas. The intensification of southwesterly moist air flows in the lower troposphere is considered to be one of the main causes of those precipitation changes because the intensified southwesterly moist air flows impinging on the western and southern slopes of the mountains can generate stronger upslope flows and well-developed clouds, leading to increased precipitation. Also, the results show that future precipitation changes in the lee sides of the mountainous regions (e.g., the Tokyo metropolitan area) would be comparatively small. These results indicate large influences of topography and prevailing wind direction on future precipitation changes. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan. We thank the regional climate modeling groups (MRI/NIED/Univ. Tsukuba) for producing and making available their model output. Their work was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  2. Reconstructing Holocene changes in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds: Integrating modern processes and paleoclimate data from New Zealand's southern fjords

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinojosa, J.; Moy, C. M.; Wilson, G. S.; Stirling, C. H.

    2013-12-01

    The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the global carbon cycle due to their influence on Southern Ocean CO2 flux. In addition, the winds influence mid-latitude storm tracks, thereby controlling moisture balance over much of New Zealand's South Island and other Southern Hemisphere regions. Fiordland, New Zealand is an ideal locale to investigate Holocene changes in westerly wind behavior: It sits at the northern margin of the wind field maximum, is sensitive to latitudinal and strength fluctuations of the winds, and is the location of numerous fjord sub-basins with high sedimentation rates (up to 3 mm/yr). Due to the strong positive relationship between wind speed and regional rainfall, reconstructions of past precipitation and fjord circulation can inform us of past westerly wind behavior. These processes can be observed through changes in the rate of organic carbon delivery from land: When precipitation is high, more terrestrial organic carbon is delivered to the fjords, while low precipitation shifts the balance toward accumulation of marine organic carbon. An important first step towards reconstructing past westerly wind variability is to characterize the distribution and cycling of carbon throughout different depositional settings in the fjords to determine the optimal location for the development of paleoclimate records. Here, we present a geochemical characterization of surface sediments and the water column throughout the region and apply this understanding to sediment cores. During three field seasons in 2012 and 2013, we collected surface sediments, particulate organic matter, and piston cores from 10 different fjords spanning 44-46° S. Our results suggest that organic carbon in the fjord basins largely follows a two-end-member mixing model, drawing from marine and terrestrial end-member sources. We see consistent down-fjord trends in carbon and nitrogen concentrations and isotopes measured from surface sediments and particulate organic matter. Terrestrial organic carbon dominates toward the head of each fjord and marine organic content increases moving toward the mouth, and the consistency of this relationship allows us to compare downcore results from different basins. We will apply our modern-process framework to several cores that span the last 4,000 years and discuss the implications for late Holocene westerly wind variability in this understudied but important region.

  3. Relation between magnetotail magnetic flux and changes in the solar wind during sawtooth events: Toward resolving the controversy of whether all substorm onsets are externally triggered

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chao-Song

    2011-04-01

    It has been debated for many years whether all substorm onsets are triggered by a sudden change in the solar wind. Because there is not a generally accepted definition of external triggers, a solar wind change may be identified to be an external trigger by some investigators but not a trigger by others. In this paper, we study the substorm onset from the magnetospheric state during sawtooth events. We do not try to determine whether a solar wind change around the onset is a trigger. Instead, we examine whether an external trigger from the solar wind is always necessary for substorm onset and why large changes in the solar wind do not always trigger sawtooth (substorm) onset. We have analyzed 54 sawtooth onsets and corresponding changes in the solar wind. The mean value of the total magnetic flux in the magnetotail at the sawtooth onsets is 0.98 GWb. Sawtooth onset can occur when the changes in the solar wind are very small (0.5 nPa in the solar wind dynamic pressure and 1 nT in the IMF Bz). We have also identified a number of large changes in the solar wind without occurrence of sawtooth onset, and the mean value of the magnetotail magnetic flux is 0.74-0.79 GWb. However, the large changes in the solar wind do not cause sawtooth onset when the magnetotail magnetic flux is generally smaller than 0.8 GWb in these cases. The observations suggest that sawtooth onset will occur when the magnetotail magnetic flux is close to a critical value (˜1 GWb, depending on the solar wind and geomagnetic activity), no matter whether the corresponding change in the solar wind is large or small. The observations also suggest that no sawtooth (substorm) onset can be triggered by a solar wind change if the magnetotail magnetic flux is ˜25% lower than the critical value of the onset, no matter how large the change in the solar wind is. Sawtooth onset appears to be an internal magnetospheric instability process, and a large change in the solar wind is not necessary for the occurrence of sawtooth onset.

  4. Aerobiology of Artemisia airborne pollen in Murcia (SE Spain) and its relationship with weather variables: annual and intradiurnal variations for three different species. Wind vectors as a tool in determining pollen origin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giner, M. Munuera; Carrión García, José S.; García Sellés, Javier

    Detailed results from a 2-year survey of airborne pollen concentrations of Artemisia in Murcia are presented. Three consecutive pollen seasons of Artemisia occurring each year, related to three different species (A.campestris, A.herba-alba and A.barrelieri), were observed. A winter blooming of Artemisia could explain the incidence of subsequent pollinosis in the Murcia area. With regard to meteorological parameters, mathematical analyses showed relationships between daily pollen concentrations of Artemisia in summer-autumn and precipitations that occurred 6-8 weeks before. The cumulative percentage of insolation from 1 March seemed to be related to blooming onsets. Once pollination has begun, meteorological factors do not seem to influence pollen concentrations significantly. Intradiurnal patterns of pollen concentrations were similar for late summer and winter species (A. campestris and A.barrelieri). During autumn blooming (A.herba-alba), the intradiurnal pattern was particularly erratic. Theoretical values of wind run were obtained for each pollen season by the graphical sum of hourly wind vectors. When theoretical wind run was mapped onto the vegetation pattern, supposed pollen source locations were obtained for each hour. By comparing supposed hourly pollen origins with the intradiurnal patterns of pollen concentrations, it can be seen that this simple model explains variations in mean pollen concentrations throughout the day.

  5. Role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds in glacial abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, R.; Álvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

    2011-10-01

    The study of Greenland ice cores revealed two decades ago the abrupt character of glacial millennial-scale climate variability. Several triggering mechanisms have been proposed and confronted against growing proxy-data evidence. Although the implication of North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation reorganisations seems robust nowadays, their final cause remains unclear. Here, the role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds is investigated using a coupled model of intermediate complexity in an experimental setup designed such that the climate system resides close to a threshold found in previous studies. An abrupt surface air temperature (SAT) increase over the North Atlantic is simulated in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and/or enhancing southern westerlies. The simulated abrupt warming shows a similar pattern and amplitude over Greenland as registered in ice-core records of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) events. This is accompanied by a strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensification. The AMOC strengthening is found to be caused by a northward shift of NADW formation sites into the Nordic Seas as a result of an increase in sea surface salinity in the Northeastern Atlantic. The latter is caused by a northward retreat of the sea-ice front in response to higher temperatures. In this way, a new mechanism that is consistent with proxy data is identified by which abrupt climate change can be promoted.

  6. Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: Evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Moemken, Julia

    2015-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalisation of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily MSLP fields with the central point being located over Germany. 77 weather classes based on the associated circulation weather type and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamical downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different datasets the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10m-wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts results of SDD are similar to DD simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout timeseries of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in SRES scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over Northern Europe and a negative trend over Southern Europe. Despite some biases it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

  7. Role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds in glacial abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, R.; Álvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

    2012-06-01

    The study of Greenland ice cores revealed two decades ago the abrupt character of glacial millennial-scale climate variability. Several triggering mechanisms have been proposed and confronted against growing proxy-data evidence. Although the implication of North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation reorganisations in glacial abrupt climate change seems robust nowadays, the final cause of these reorganisations remains unclear. Here, the role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds is investigated using a coupled model of intermediate complexity in an experimental setup designed such that the climate system resides close to a threshold found in previous studies. An initial abrupt surface air temperature (SAT) increase over the North Atlantic by 4 K in less than a decade, followed by a more gradual warming greater than 10 K on centennial timescales, is simulated in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and/or enhancing southern westerlies. The simulated peak warming shows a similar pattern and amplitude over Greenland as registered in ice core records of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) events. This is accompanied by a strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensification. The AMOC strengthening is found to be caused by a northward shift of NADW formation sites into the Nordic Seas as a result of a northward retreat of the sea-ice front in response to higher temperatures. This leads to enhanced heat loss to the atmosphere as well as reduced freshwater fluxes via reduced sea-ice import into the region. In this way, a new mechanism that is consistent with proxy data is identified by which abrupt climate change can be promoted.

  8. Analysis of Change in the Wind Speed Ratio according to Apartment Layout and Solutions

    PubMed Central

    Hyung, Won-gil; Kim, Young-Moon; You, Ki-Pyo

    2014-01-01

    Apartment complexes in various forms are built in downtown areas. The arrangement of an apartment complex has great influence on the wind flow inside it. There are issues of residents' walking due to gust occurrence within apartment complexes, problems with pollutant emission due to airflow congestion, and heat island and cool island phenomena in apartment complexes. Currently, the forms of internal arrangements of apartment complexes are divided into the flat type and the tower type. In the present study, a wind tunnel experiment and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation were performed with respect to internal wind flows in different apartment arrangement forms. Findings of the wind tunnel experiment showed that the internal form and arrangement of an apartment complex had significant influence on its internal airflow. The wind velocity of the buildings increased by 80% at maximum due to the proximity effects between the buildings. The CFD simulation for relaxing such wind flows indicated that the wind velocity reduced by 40% or more at maximum when the paths between the lateral sides of the buildings were extended. PMID:24688430

  9. Response of currents in Earth's and Saturn's dayside magnetopause to a sudden change in the solar wind density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belenkaya, E. S.

    2014-05-01

    When the effect of a solar wind dynamic pressure pulse on the magnetospheric and ionospheric dynamics is studied, it is usually difficult to detect the effect of a sudden change in the density against the background of the other varying solar wind parameters, which often play a most pronounced role. Cases in which the solar wind plasma density gradient dominated in the dynamics of the different parameters of an interplanetary medium and its magnetic field are considered in this work. Variations in the Earth's dayside magnetopause current caused by a change in the solar wind ion density are presented for two such cases (February 11 and January 11, 1997) based on the method developed by us previously. Variations in the dayside magnetopause current for collisions of the magnetosphere with corotating interacting flows in January 2004, studied in detail by us previously, are also presented for Saturn. The estimates are comparable with the current values in the transitional three-dimensional current systems of Saturn that were previously calculated by us.

  10. Evidence of long-term change in zonal wind in the tropical lower mesosphere: Observations and model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkat Ratnam, M.; Kishore Kumar, G.; Venkateswara Rao, N.; Krishna Murthy, B. V.; LaTovi?Ka, Jan; Qian, Liying

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, the mesosphere (50 to 85-100 km) has evoked great scientific interest as long-term changes due to global warming can be clearly captured due to the large perturbation amplitudes at these altitudes. In the present study, zonal wind observations between 70 and 80 km over the Indian region provided by rocketsonde (1977-1991), HRDI/UARS (1991-1999), and MST radar (1995-2010) are used to construct a long-term data set from 1977 to 2010. Using this unprecedented data set, a decreasing trend of 2 m/s/yr is found, changing from strong eastward winds during the 1970s to weak westward winds in recent years. On the other hand, between 80 and 98 km using medium frequency radar observations during 1993-2009, no perceptible trend is found. Simulations of NCAR TIME-GCM also showed a similar change in the circulation when CO2 in the atmosphere is doubled, suggesting role of anthropogenic changes in the dynamics of the mesosphere.

  11. Impact of Global Climate Changes on the Wind Power Density in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martins, Fernando; Pereira, Enio; Pes, Marcelo; Segundo, Eliude; Lyra, Andr

    The potential onshore wind power resources in Brazil could reach more than 145,000 MW. Brazil's wind energy production has risen up from 22 MW in 2003 to 602 MW in 2009 thanks to the government policy and incentives to encourage the use of wind power and other renewable sources of energy. An additional 256.4 MW is now under construction and should start the op-eration at the end of 2010. Recently 71 additional projects have been approved as a result of the first wind-only bidding round for energy supply in Brazil of December 2009. The contracts, to-taling 1800MW, will start in July 2012 with a supply period of 20 years. Developing wind power in Brazil will help the country to meet its strategic objectives of enhancing energy security and reducing the country's energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. In spite of this, the long-term growth of the national wind capacity depends not only on a more competitive price for this en-ergy source (today at US84, 8M W h)butalsoonthesustainabledomesticdevelopmentof thistechnology.F urth controldatascreeningprocesstoselectvalidclimatologicaltimeseriesf ollowedbytheKendalltrendtestat95

  12. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

    PubMed Central

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E.; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E.

    2015-01-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

  13. The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

    PubMed

    Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

    2015-04-01

    Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

  14. Changing Snow Cover and Stream Discharge in the Western United States - Wind River Range, Wyoming

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Dorothy K.; Foster, James L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Barton, Jonathan S.; Riggs, George A.

    2011-01-01

    Earlier onset of springtime weather has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack has important implications for the management of water resources. We studied ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products, 40 years of stream discharge and meteorological station data and 30 years of snow-water equivalent (SWE) SNOw Telemetry (SNOTEL) data in the Wind River Range (WRR), Wyoming. Results show increasing air temperatures for.the 40-year study period. Discharge from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades. Changes in streamflow may be related to increasing air temperatures which are probably contributing to a reduction in snow cover, although no trend of either increasingly lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. And SWE on 1 April does not show an expected downward trend from 1980 to 2009. The extent of snow cover derived from the lowest-elevation zone of the WRR study area is strongly correlated (r=0.91) with stream discharge on 1 May during the decade of the 2000s. The strong relationship between snow cover and streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western U.S.

  15. Thermal and Pressure Characterization of a Wind Tunnel Force Balance Using the Single Vector System. Experimental Design and Analysis Approach to Model Pressure and Temperature Effects in Hypersonic Wind Tunnel Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lynn, Keith C.; Commo, Sean A.; Johnson, Thomas H.; Parker, Peter A,

    2011-01-01

    Wind tunnel research at NASA Langley Research Center s 31-inch Mach 10 hypersonic facility utilized a 5-component force balance, which provided a pressurized flow-thru capability to the test article. The goal of the research was to determine the interaction effects between the free-stream flow and the exit flow from the reaction control system on the Mars Science Laboratory aeroshell during planetary entry. In the wind tunnel, the balance was exposed to aerodynamic forces and moments, steady-state and transient thermal gradients, and various internal balance cavity pressures. Historically, these effects on force measurement accuracy have not been fully characterized due to limitations in the calibration apparatus. A statistically designed experiment was developed to adequately characterize the behavior of the balance over the expected wind tunnel operating ranges (forces/moments, temperatures, and pressures). The experimental design was based on a Taylor-series expansion in the seven factors for the mathematical models. Model inversion was required to calculate the aerodynamic forces and moments as a function of the strain-gage readings. Details regarding transducer on-board compensation techniques, experimental design development, mathematical modeling, and wind tunnel data reduction are included in this paper.

  16. Changing vessel routes could significantly reduce the cost of future offshore wind projects.

    PubMed

    Samoteskul, Kateryna; Firestone, Jeremy; Corbett, James; Callahan, John

    2014-08-01

    With the recent emphasis on offshore wind energy Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) has become one of the main frameworks used to plan and manage the increasingly complex web of ocean and coastal uses. As wind development becomes more prevalent, existing users of the ocean space, such as commercial shippers, will be compelled to share their historically open-access waters with these projects. Here, we demonstrate the utility of using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to support siting decisions within a CMSP framework. In this study, we assume that large-scale offshore wind development will take place in the US Mid-Atlantic within the next decades. We then evaluate whether building projects nearshore or far from shore would be more cost-effective. Building projects nearshore is assumed to require rerouting of the commercial vessel traffic traveling between the US Mid-Atlantic ports by an average of 18.5 km per trip. We focus on less than 1500 transits by large deep-draft vessels. We estimate that over 29 years of the study, commercial shippers would incur an additional $0.2 billion (in 2012$) in direct and indirect costs. Building wind projects closer to shore where vessels used to transit would generate approximately $13.4 billion (in 2012$) in savings. Considering the large cost savings, modifying areas where vessels transit needs to be included in the portfolio of policies used to support the growth of the offshore wind industry in the US. PMID:24794388

  17. Updated Measurements of Saturn’s Zonal Wind between 2004 - 2014 from Cassini ISS Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blalock, John J.; Sayanagi, Kunio M.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Ewald, Shawn P.; Dyudina, Ulyana A.

    2015-11-01

    We present updated zonal wind measurements of Saturn using Cassini ISS images taken between 2004 and 2014. We previously reported that there may be small seasonal changes in Saturn’s zonal wind profile but measurement uncertainties prevented us from making definite statements. In our previous report, we used the zonal standard deviation of the wind vectors as a proxy for the measurement uncertainty. However, zonal standard deviation contains contributions from both real spatial variations in the wind speed as well as uncertainties in the measurements. This raised a difficulty in distinguishing small, real changes in the wind field from the uncertainties in the measurement. We have developed a technique which isolates real spatial variations from measurement uncertainties by analyzing the correlation fields produced in the two-dimensional Correlation Imaging Velocimetry (CIV) cloud-tracking wind measurement method. The CIV algorithm computes a wind vector by calculating the two-dimensional correlation between the pair of maps; a peak in the correlation is judged to be a match. We determine the size, shape, and orientation of the peak by fitting an ellipse to the peak and calculating the area, eccentricity, and orientation angle of the ellipse. Combining these metrics provides a measure of the uncertainty associated with individual wind vectors. Vectors with smaller, sharper, more circular peaks will have a smaller uncertainty than vectors with larger, flatter, more elliptical peaks. Using this new technique, our new measurements reveal small temporal changes in the zonal wind profiles. Our work has been supported by NASA PATM NNX14AK07G and NSF AAG 1212216.

  18. Wind machine

    SciTech Connect

    Gaston, E. E.

    1985-01-15

    To generate power from wind economically, a feathering vane is pivotally mounted perpendicular to a tail vane and shifts the orientation of a sprocket assembly controlled by the tail vane in response to wind velocity. The sprocket assembly changes the orientation of blades which orbit about and rotate the main power shaft so that, as wind velocity changes, the blade orientations are shifted in a compensating direction under the control of the tail vane. A lever shifts the position of the blades to positions that balance wind power and brake the rotation for maintenance purposes. The speed-control mechanism includes a damper to avoid being excessively affected by wind gusts. The main shaft is connected through a speed increaser which has less mass at the high-speed end than the low-speed end to an induction generator when used for cogeneration, the field of the induction generator being excited by the cogeneration frequency.

  19. Potential changes in larval dispersal and alongshore connectivity on the central Chilean coast due to an altered wind climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiken, C. M.; Navarrete, S. A.; Pelegrí, J. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is likely to result in significant alterations in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, which may, as a result, affect species that depend on an ocean-driven nutrient supply and particularly those that possess a dispersal phase in their life history. In this paper we investigate the potential changes in larval dispersal and connectivity of marine populations on the Chilean coast due to altered wind forcing consistent with a future climate change scenario. Numerical ocean simulations forced by modeled present-day and future winds under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario are used to investigate the potential changes in nearshore circulation. Off-line particle-tracking simulations are then analyzed to determine resulting changes in larval dispersal and connectivity under each scenario as a function of pelagic larval duration and for two different possible larval behaviors: passive and vertical migration. It is found that the projected future winds drive an intensification of the upwelling circulation, which results in a relative annual mean surface cooling of 1°C over much of the domain, an increase in the strength of the poleward undercurrent, and a more energetic mesoscale eddy field. Neutrally buoyant larvae are inferred to have low rates of settlement under present conditions and are more strongly disadvantaged under the simulated future conditions than larvae with vertically migrating behavior. Larvae that posses an ability to sink out of the surface Ekman layer are found to have higher rates of settlement under present conditions and are, in fact, favored slightly in the A2 scenario for pelagic larval durations longer than 2 days. This behavior-dependent response to future conditions may potentially drive a reorganization of coastal communities.

  20. Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2015-04-01

    A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of an idealized wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 GCMs of the CMIP5 ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021-2060 and 2061-2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveal a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is in particular likely during the 2nd half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061-2100 compared to 2021-2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

  1. Dynamical response of the magnetotail to the vertical directional changes of solar wind flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saxonbergová, Dana; Voros, Zoltán; Šimkanin, Ján

    2015-04-01

    We perform simultaneous investigations of field and plasma parameters in the solar wind (OMNI data), in the magnetotail (THEMIS, CLUSTER) and auroral region to identify the onset conditions for magnetospheric substorms. Magnetic reconnection is a process which can explain fast and energetic releases of plasmas in the tail during southward oriented IMF, leading to energetic substorms. However, substorms associated with northward oriented IMF are more difficult to explain. Here we investigate the question what are the solar wind conditions which can trigger magnetic reconnetion in tail leading to substorm activity during northward IMF conditions. Our hypothesis is that magnetic reconnection or substorms can appear as result of so called vertical large scale windsock motion of the magnetotail associated with enhanced solar wind dynamic pressure on the nightside magnetopause.

  2. Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: CaliforniaSanta Ana wind occurrence

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.; Schlegel, Nicole J.

    2006-01-01

    A new methodbased on global climate model pressuregradients was developed for identifying coastal high-wind fire weatherconditions, such as the Santa Ana Occurrence (SAO). Application of thismethod for determining southern California Santa Ana wind occurrenceresulted in a good correlation between derived large-scale SAOs andobserved offshore winds during periods of low humidity. The projectedchange in the number of SAOs was analyzed using two global climatemodels, one a low temperature sensitivity and the other amiddle-temperature sensitivity, both forced with low and high emissionscenarios, for three future time periods. This initial analysis showsconsistent shifts in SAO events from earlier (September-October) to later(November-December) in the season, suggesting that SAOs may significantlyincrease the extent of California coastal areas burned by wildfires, lossof life, and property.

  3. Bats in a Mediterranean Mountainous Landscape: Does Wind Farm Repowering Induce Changes at Assemblage and Species Level?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferri, Vincenzo; Battisti, Corrado; Soccini, Christiana

    2016-06-01

    We reported data on flying bat assemblages in a Mediterranean mountain landscape of central Italy on a 5-year time span (2005-2010) where a wind farm repowering has been carried out (from 2009, 17 three-blade turbines substituted an a priori set of one-blade turbines). In 4 yearly based surveys, we calculated a set of univariate metrics at species and assemblage level and also performing a diversity/dominance analysis ( k-dominance plots) to evaluate temporal changes. Nine species of bats were present (eight classified at species level, one at genus level). Number of detected taxa, Margalef richness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity apparently decreased between 2005-2007 (one-blade turbine period) and 2009-2010 (three-blade turbines period). We showed a weak temporal turnover only between 2007 and 2009. In k-dominance plots, the occurrence curves of the years before the new wind farming activity (2005 and 2007) were lower when compared to the curves related to the 2009 and 2010 years, suggesting an apparent stress at assemblage level in the second period (2009 and 2010). Myotis emarginatus and Pipistrellus pipistrellus significantly changed their relative frequency during the three-blade wind farming activity, supporting the hypothesis that some bats may be sensitive to repowering. Further research is necessary to confirm a possible sensitivity also for locally rare bats ( Miniopterus schreibersii and Plecotus sp.).

  4. Bats in a Mediterranean Mountainous Landscape: Does Wind Farm Repowering Induce Changes at Assemblage and Species Level?

    PubMed

    Ferri, Vincenzo; Battisti, Corrado; Soccini, Christiana

    2016-06-01

    We reported data on flying bat assemblages in a Mediterranean mountain landscape of central Italy on a 5-year time span (2005-2010) where a wind farm repowering has been carried out (from 2009, 17 three-blade turbines substituted an a priori set of one-blade turbines). In 4 yearly based surveys, we calculated a set of univariate metrics at species and assemblage level and also performing a diversity/dominance analysis (k-dominance plots) to evaluate temporal changes. Nine species of bats were present (eight classified at species level, one at genus level). Number of detected taxa, Margalef richness, and Shannon-Wiener diversity apparently decreased between 2005-2007 (one-blade turbine period) and 2009-2010 (three-blade turbines period). We showed a weak temporal turnover only between 2007 and 2009. In k-dominance plots, the occurrence curves of the years before the new wind farming activity (2005 and 2007) were lower when compared to the curves related to the 2009 and 2010 years, suggesting an apparent stress at assemblage level in the second period (2009 and 2010). Myotis emarginatus and Pipistrellus pipistrellus significantly changed their relative frequency during the three-blade wind farming activity, supporting the hypothesis that some bats may be sensitive to repowering. Further research is necessary to confirm a possible sensitivity also for locally rare bats (Miniopterus schreibersii and Plecotus sp.). PMID:26952112

  5. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. PMID:21376925

  6. Winds of change: How will windstorms and forest harvesting affect C cycling in northern MN under different climate scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucash, M. S.; Scheller, R. M.; Gustafson, E.; Sturtevant, B.

    2013-12-01

    Forest managers struggle to manage timber resources while integrating the complex interactions that exist among disturbances with the novel conditions produced by a changing climate. To help forest managers better integrate climate change and disturbance projections into their forest management plans, we are using a forest landscape disturbance and succession model (LANDIS-II, Century extension) to project carbon sequestration in northern Minnesota under multiple climate change, management and disturbance scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using empirical estimates of aboveground productivity and net ecosystem exchange. Our simulations suggest that windstorms will decrease tree biomass and soil organic matter and will increase dead C, resulting in an overall decrease in total C and C sink strength under the GFDL A1FI climate scenario. However the direct effects of climate change on C via altered production and heterotrophic respiration were larger than the impacts of wind. In contrast, forest harvesting will remain the dominant determinant of C dynamics under A1FI, even under management scenarios of more selective logging and longer rotation periods. Recovery from historic (late 1800s and early 1900s) disturbance - clearcut logging and wildfire - remain an important, though declining, driver of long-term C dynamics. Our research results will inform regional planning efforts and help forest managers evaluate the relative importance of disturbances (e.g. wind) and forest harvesting under a changing climate.

  7. Sea level changes induced by local winds on the west coast of India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehra, Prakash; Tsimplis, Michael N.; Prabhudesai, R. G.; Joseph, Antony; Shaw, Andrew G. P.; Somayajulu, Y. K.; Cipollini, Paolo

    2010-08-01

    The contribution of atmospheric pressure and local wind to sea level variability at Goa (West coast of India) for the period 2007-2008 is investigated. Sea level data from a tide gauge are compared with measured local surface meteorological as well as oceanographic data. Multilinear regression analysis is used to resolve the dependence of sea level on various forcing parameters. The multilinear regression analysis performed over approx. 2-year data shows that the local surface meteorological data and water temperature account for the sea level variability only up to 6%. The accounted sea level variability increases to 25%, when the local wind and the surface currents obtained from satellite altimetry in the near vicinity of the study area are incorporated in the regression analysis. The contribution of local wind increases substantially when the regression is performed over a 2-month duration, and it is variable within the year. During the summer monsoon season (May-September), the sea level variability attributable to wind is up to 47% and 75%, respectively, for 2007 and 2008; however, it reduces to <20% during the winter monsoon (November-February) season. A significant part of the variability observed in sea level remains unaccounted for and is attributed to remote forcing.

  8. The changing wind structure of the WR/LBV star in HD 5980

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenigsberger, Gloria

    2013-10-01

    HD 5980 is an extraordinary system of massive stars that is located in the Small Magellanic Cloud. It contains an eclipsing binary {P=19.3 d} consisting of a luminous blue variable {LBV} and its Wolf-Rayet {WR} companion. The LBV underwent a major eruptive event in 1994 during which its bolometric luminosity increased by a factor of 5 and it is currently approaching its minimum state of activity. The primary objective of this proposal is to determine the wind velocity and mass-loss rate of the LBV in its current state. With these observations and our earlier observations and analyses, HD 5980 offers the unprecedented opportunity of deriving all the fundamental parameters of an LBV system throughout its activity cycle, parameters which are required in order to constrain the sources of the instabilities that lead to the eruptive phenomena. To accomplish these goals, we request 2 HST orbits to observe HD 5980 with STIS in order to obtain one set of FUV MAMA and CCD spectra at the eclipse, when the LBV occults its WR companion.The study of HD 5980 and the UV spectrum that we propose to acquire are relevant to a broad range of problems including wind-wind collision phenomena, the formation of circumstellar structures powered by stellar winds and the evolution of supernova progenitors.

  9. Analysis of Unit-Level Changes in Operations with Increased SPP Wind from EPRI/LCG Balancing Study

    SciTech Connect

    Hadley, Stanton W

    2012-01-01

    Wind power development in the United States is outpacing previous estimates for many regions, particularly those with good wind resources. The pace of wind power deployment may soon outstrip regional capabilities to provide transmission and integration services to achieve the most economic power system operation. Conversely, regions such as the Southeastern United States do not have good wind resources and will have difficulty meeting proposed federal Renewable Portfolio Standards with local supply. There is a growing need to explore innovative solutions for collaborating between regions to achieve the least cost solution for meeting such a renewable energy mandate. The Department of Energy funded the project 'Integrating Midwest Wind Energy into Southeast Electricity Markets' to be led by EPRI in coordination with the main authorities for the regions: SPP, Entergy, TVA, Southern Company and OPC. EPRI utilized several subcontractors for the project including LCG, the developers of the model UPLAN. The study aims to evaluate the operating cost benefits of coordination of scheduling and balancing for Southwest Power Pool (SPP) wind transfers to Southeastern Electric Reliability Council (SERC) Balancing Authorities (BAs). The primary objective of this project is to analyze the benefits of regional cooperation for integrating mid-western wind energy into southeast electricity markets. Scenarios were defined, modeled and investigated to address production variability and uncertainty and the associated balancing of large quantities of wind power in SPP and delivery to energy markets in the southern regions of the SERC. DOE funded Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide additional support to the project, including a review of results and any side analysis that may provide additional insight. This report is a unit-by-unit analysis of changes in operations due to the different scenarios used in the overall study. It focuses on the change in capacity factors and the number of start-ups required for each unit since those criteria summarize key aspects of plant operations, how often are they called upon and how much do they operate. The primary analysis of the overall project is based on security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) and economic dispatch (SCED) simulations of the SPP-SERC regions as modeled for the year 2022. The SCUC/SCED models utilized for the project were developed through extensive consultation with the project utility partners, to ensure the various regions and operational practices are represented as best as possible in the model. SPP, Entergy, Oglethorpe Power Company (OPC), Southern Company, and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) actively participated in the project providing input data for the models and review of simulation results and conclusions. While other SERC utility systems are modeled, the listed SERC utilities were explicitly included as active participants in the project due to the size of their load and relative proximity to SPP for importing wind energy.

  10. The Effects of Climate Change and Globalization on Mosquito Vectors: Evidence from Jeju Island, South Korea on the Potential for Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) Influxes and Survival from Vietnam Rather Than Japan

    PubMed Central

    Jeong, Ji Yeon; Yoo, Seung Jin; Koh, Young-Sang; Lee, Seogjae; Heo, Sang Taek; Seong, Seung-Yong; Lee, Keun Hwa

    2013-01-01

    Background Climate change affects the survival and transmission of arthropod vectors as well as the development rates of vector-borne pathogens. Increased international travel is also an important factor in the spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as dengue, West Nile, yellow fever, chikungunya, and malaria. Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease. An estimated 2.5 billion people are at risk of infection in the world and there are approximately 50 million dengue infections and an estimated 500,000 individuals are hospitalized with dengue haemorrhagic fever annually. The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is one of the vectors of dengue virus, and populations already exist on Jeju Island, South Korea. Currently, colder winter temperatures kill off Asian tiger mosquito populations and there is no evidence of the mosquitos being vectors for the dengue virus in this location. However, dengue virus-bearing mosquito vectors can inflow to Jeju Island from endemic area such as Vietnam by increased international travel, and this mosquito vector's survival during colder winter months will likely occur due to the effects of climate change. Methods and Results In this section, we show the geographical distribution of medically important mosquito vectors such as Ae. albopictus, a vector of both dengue and chikungunya viruses; Culex pipiens, a vector of West Nile virus; and Anopheles sinensis, a vector of Plasmodium vivax, within Jeju Island, South Korea. We found a significant association between the mean temperature, amount of precipitation, and density of mosquitoes. The phylogenetic analyses show that an Ae. albopictus, collected in southern area of Jeju Island, was identical to specimens found in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam, and not Nagasaki, Japan. Conclusion Our results suggest that mosquito vectors or virus-bearing vectors can transmit from epidemic regions of Southeast Asia to Jeju Island and can survive during colder winter months. Therefore, Jeju Island is no longer safe from vector borne diseases (VBDs) due to the effects of globalization and climate change, and we should immediately monitor regional climate change to identify newly emerging VBDs. PMID:23894312

  11. Cloning vector

    DOEpatents

    Guilfoyle, Richard A.; Smith, Lloyd M.

    1994-01-01

    A vector comprising a filamentous phage sequence containing a first copy of filamentous phage gene X and other sequences necessary for the phage to propagate is disclosed. The vector also contains a second copy of filamentous phage gene X downstream from a promoter capable of promoting transcription in a bacterial host. In a preferred form of the present invention, the filamentous phage is M13 and the vector additionally includes a restriction endonuclease site located in such a manner as to substantially inactivate the second gene X when a DNA sequence is inserted into the restriction site.

  12. Cloning vector

    DOEpatents

    Guilfoyle, R.A.; Smith, L.M.

    1994-12-27

    A vector comprising a filamentous phage sequence containing a first copy of filamentous phage gene X and other sequences necessary for the phage to propagate is disclosed. The vector also contains a second copy of filamentous phage gene X downstream from a promoter capable of promoting transcription in a bacterial host. In a preferred form of the present invention, the filamentous phage is M13 and the vector additionally includes a restriction endonuclease site located in such a manner as to substantially inactivate the second gene X when a DNA sequence is inserted into the restriction site. 2 figures.

  13. The future of Antarctica's surface winds simulated by a high-resolution global climate model: 2. Drivers of 21st century changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bintanja, R.; Severijns, C.; Haarsma, R.; Hazeleger, W.

    2014-06-01

    Antarctica's katabatic winds are among the strongest near-surface winds on Earth, and among the most consistent ones. As these winds are primarily due to the strong surface cooling, greenhouse warming of the surface may act to reduce the strength of these winds as well as their consistency. Here we use the atmospheric component of the global climate model EC-Earth in prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations of the present day (2002-2006) and future (2094-2098) climates, using two model resolutions: (1) T159L62 (~100 km, 62 vertical levels), and (2) T799L91 (~20 km, 91 vertical levels) to investigate changes in Antarctica's surface winds and the reasons thereof. Circumpolar westerlies over the Southern Ocean strengthen and shift poleward because of the deepening of the circumpolar trough and the associated increase in Southern Annular Mode (SAM), especially in high resolution, causing weaker coastal easterlies. Generally, surface wind speeds over the Antarctica mainland exhibit a small decrease. According to the simulations, the temperature deficit (or inversion strength) and associated katabatic forcing exhibit only minor changes over the continent. Changes in the surface winds over Antarctica's slopes can thus be attributed mainly to changes in the synoptic forcing (large-scale pressure gradient). Hence, with modeled 21st century changes in the katabatic forcing being small, changes in zonal and meridional surface winds in and around Antarctica are largely decoupled from those over the Southern Ocean and are governed by changes in synoptic forcing and large-scale pressure gradients. As a result, these changes are largely independent on model resolution.

  14. Side-scan Doppler lidar for offshore wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, Grady J.; Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Modlin, Edward A.; Petzar, Paul J.; Woll, Steve; Petros, Mulugeta; Yu, Jirong; Kavaya, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    A field demonstration was done from Virginia Beach, Virginia, to show the use of high-energy (250-mJ) eyesafe Doppler lidar for measurements of offshore wind. The lidar is located onshore and pointed near-horizontally to reach a target area many kilometers away. In sample measurements, the lidar scan's hypothetical turbine is located 6 km away. For one beam elevation of interest, the horizontal wind vector is measured by scanning the beam in azimuth. The elevation can then be changed to profile the wind at many altitudes. An example measurement is shown in which wind vector is determined at six altitudes covering the height of a supposed turbine and above. In addition to the wind vector, wind shear is measured across a turbine blade span width. Over a two-week period in October 2011, range capability was found to vary from 4.5 to 17 km depending on weather and aerosol backscatter conditions. A comparison was made with an anemometer to validate the lidar's measurements.

  15. Holocene changes in tropical wind intensity and rainfall: Evidence from southeast Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbot, M. R.

    1981-09-01

    Remnants of a fixed aeolian dune ridge occur along the southeast coast of Ghana, just behind the present shoreline. Aeolian sands also cover extensive areas of the Accra Plains. No dunes are present here, the sands mainly occurring as sheets which blanket an early Holocene landscape. The sediments are of mid-Holocene age and were deposited during the interval 4500 B.P.-3800 yr B.P., when the southwesterly winds were stronger than they are at present and much of tropical Africa seems to have been subject to marked aridity. The onset of drier, windier conditions around 4500 yr B.P. brought to an end the more equable climates than had characterized much of West Africa during the earlier Holocene. Aridity, intensified winds, and desert expansion between 4500 and 3800 yr B.P. parallel environmental conditions in tropical continental areas at the height of the Late Pleistocene glaciation.

  16. Equivalent Vectors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Robert

    2004-01-01

    The cross-product is a mathematical operation that is performed between two 3-dimensional vectors. The result is a vector that is orthogonal or perpendicular to both of them. Learning about this for the first time while taking Calculus-III, the class was taught that if AxB = AxC, it does not necessarily follow that B = C. This seemed baffling. The…

  17. Vector quantization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gray, Robert M.

    1989-01-01

    During the past ten years Vector Quantization (VQ) has developed from a theoretical possibility promised by Shannon's source coding theorems into a powerful and competitive technique for speech and image coding and compression at medium to low bit rates. In this survey, the basic ideas behind the design of vector quantizers are sketched and some comments made on the state-of-the-art and current research efforts.

  18. Rice stripe virus affects the viability of its vector offspring by changing developmental gene expression in embryos

    PubMed Central

    Li, Shuo; Wang, Shijuan; Wang, Xi; Li, Xiaoli; Zi, Jinyan; Ge, Shangshu; Cheng, Zhaobang; Zhou, Tong; Ji, Yinghua; Deng, Jinhua; Wong, Sek-Man; Zhou, Yijun

    2015-01-01

    Plant viruses may affect the viability and development process of their herbivore vectors. Small brown planthopper (SBPH) is main vector of Rice stripe virus (RSV), which causes serious rice stripe disease. Here, we reported the effects of RSV on SBPH offspring by crossing experiments between viruliferous and non-viruliferous strains. The life parameters of offspring from different cross combinations were compared. The hatchability of F1 progeny from viruliferous parents decreased significantly, and viruliferous rate was completely controlled by viruliferous maternal parent. To better elucidate the underlying biological mechanisms, the morphology of eggs, viral propagation and distribution in the eggs and expression profile of embryonic development genes were investigated. The results indicated that RSV replicated and accumulated in SBPH eggs resulting in developmental stunt or delay of partial eggs; in addition, RSV was only able to infect ovum but not sperm. According to the expression profile, expression of 13 developmental genes was regulated in the eggs from viruliferous parents, in which two important regulatory genes (Ls-Dorsal and Ls-CPO) were most significantly down-regulated. In general, RSV exerts an adverse effect on SBPH, which is unfavourable for the expansion of viruliferous populations. The viewpoint is also supported by systematic monitoring of SBPH viruliferous rate. PMID:25601039

  19. Response of the Earth's Magnetosphere to Changes in the Solar Wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McPherron, Robert L.; Weygand, James M.; Hsu, Tung-Shin

    2007-01-01

    The solar wind couples to the magnetosphere via dynamic pressure and electric field. Pressure establishes the size and shape of the system, while the electric field transfers energy, mass, and momentum to the magnetosphere. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is antiparallel to the dayside magnetic field, magnetic reconnection connects the IMF to the dipole field. Solar wind transport of the newly opened field lines to the nightside creates an internal convection system. These open field lines must ultimately be closed by reconnection on the nightside. For many decades, it was thought that a magnetospheric substorm was the process for accomplishing this and that all magnetic activity was a consequence of substorms. It is now recognized that there are a variety of modes of response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. In this paper, we briefly describe these modes and the conditions under which they occur. They include substorms, pseudo-breakups, poleward boundary intensifications (PBI), steady magnetospheric convection (SMC), sawtooth injection events, magnetic storms, high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activities (HILDCAAs), and storm-time activations. There are numerous explanations for these different phenomena, some of which do not involve magnetic reconnection. However, we speculate that it is possible to interpret each mode in terms of differences in the way magnetic reconnection occurs on the nightside.

  20. Response of the Earth's magnetosphere to changes in the solar wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPherron, Robert L.; Weygand, James M.; Hsu, Tung-Shin

    2008-02-01

    The solar wind couples to the magnetosphere via dynamic pressure and electric field. Pressure establishes the size and shape of the system, while the electric field transfers energy, mass, and momentum to the magnetosphere. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is antiparallel to the dayside magnetic field, magnetic reconnection connects the IMF to the dipole field. Solar wind transport of the newly opened field lines to the nightside creates an internal convection system. These open field lines must ultimately be closed by reconnection on the nightside. For many decades, it was thought that a magnetospheric substorm was the process for accomplishing this and that all magnetic activity was a consequence of substorms. It is now recognized that there are a variety of modes of response of the magnetosphere to the solar wind. In this paper, we briefly describe these modes and the conditions under which they occur. They include substorms, pseudo-breakups, poleward boundary intensifications (PBI), steady magnetospheric convection (SMC), sawtooth injection events, magnetic storms, high-intensity long-duration continuous AE activities (HILDCAAs), and storm-time activations. There are numerous explanations for these different phenomena, some of which do not involve magnetic reconnection. However, we speculate that it is possible to interpret each mode in terms of differences in the way magnetic reconnection occurs on the nightside.

  1. Bursts of geomagnetic pulsations in the frequency range 0.2-5 Hz excited by large changes of the solar wind pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parkhomov, V. A.; Zastenker, G. N.; Riazantseva, M. O.; Tsegmed, B.; Popova, T. A.

    2010-02-01

    We present the results of studying the magnetospheres’s response to sharp changes of the solar wind flow (pressure) based on observations of variations of the ions flux of the solar wind onboard the Inreball-1 satellite and of geomagnetic pulsations (the data of two mid-latitude observatories and one auroral observatory are used). It is demonstrated that, when changes of flow runs into the magnetosphere, in some cases short (duration ~ < 5 min) bursts of geomagnetic pulsations are excited in the frequency range Δ f~ 0.2-5 Hz. The bursts of two types are observed: noise bursts without frequency changes and wide-band ones with changing frequency during the burst. A comparison is made of various properties of these bursts generated by pressure changes at constant velocity of the solar wind and by pressure changes on the fronts of interplanetary shock waves at different directions of the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

  2. The impact of climate change on the global coastal low-level wind jets: EC-EARTH simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semedo, Alvaro; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Bernardino, Mariana; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are low tropospheric coast-parallel wind features, confined to the marine atmospheric boundary layer, which lay on the east flank of the semi-permanent sub-tropical high-pressure systems, in the mid-latitudes, along equator-ward eastern boundary currents. Coastal jets are of utmost relevance to the regional climate, through their impact on the along coast sea surface temperature, driving the upwelling of cold deep nutrient-rich waters, and by having a decisive impact on the aridity of the mid-latitude western coastal areas. Here the impact of a warmer climate in the CLLJ climate is investigated, through a 2-member ensemble of EC-Earth CMIP5 simulations of future climate, following the RCP8.5 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Besides the projected changes of the CLLJ, towards the end of the 21st century, the future characteristics of the coastal jets are also presented. No common feature of projected changes in the seven identified CLLJ areas was identified. The Iberian Peninsula and the Oman coastal jets are the ones that presented the highest differences, compared to present climate: highest projected increases in frequency of occurrence, as well as highest projected increases in jet strength (wind speed at the jet height) and jet height. This study presents a step forward towards a larger ensemble of CLLJ projections, required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future climate change.

  3. Incorporation of wind shear terms into the governing equations of aircraft motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frost, W.; Bowles, R. U.

    1984-01-01

    Conventional analyses of aircraft motion in the atmosphere have neglected wind speed variability on the scales associated with many atmospheric phenomena such as thunderstorms, low-level jets, etc. These phemonena produce wind shears that have been determined as the probable cause in many recent commercial airline accidents. This paper derives the six degrees equations of motion or an aircraft incorporating the variable wind terms. The equations are presented in several coordinate systems (i.e., body coordinates, inertial coordinates, etc.). The wind shear terms, including the temporal and spatial gradients of the wind, appear differently in the various coordinate system. These terms are discussed. Also, the influence of wind shear on inputs to computing the aerodynamic coefficients such as the effects of wind velocity vector rotation on relative angular rates of rotation and on the time rate of change of angles of attack and side slip are addressed.

  4. The influence of changes in wind patterns on the areal extension of surface cyanobacterial blooms in a large shallow lake in China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Brookes, Justin D; Shi, Kun; Zhu, Guangwei; Zhu, Mengyuan; Yan, Wenming; Wang, Zhen

    2015-06-15

    It has been hypothesized that climate change will induce the areal extension of cyanobacterial blooms. However, this hypothesis lacks field-based observation. In the present study both long-term historical data and short-term field measurement were used to identify the importance of changes in wind patterns on the cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu (China), a large, shallow, eutrophic lake located in a subtropical zone. The cyanobacterial bloom mainly composed of Microcystis spp. recurred frequently throughout the year. The regression analysis of multi-year satellite image data extracted by the Floating Algae Index revealed that both the annual mean monthly maximum cyanobacterial bloom area (MMCBA) increased year by year from 2000 to 2011, while the contemporaneous cyanobacterial biomass showed no significant change. However, the correlation analysis shows that MMCBA was negatively correlated with wind speed. Our short-term field measurements indicated that the influence of wind on surface cyanobacterial blooms is that the Chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration is fully mixing throughout the water column when the wind speed exceed 7 m s(-1). At lower wind speeds, there was vertical stratification of Chla with high surface concentrations and an increase in bloom area. The regression analysis of wind speed indicates that the climate has changed over the last decade. Lake Taihu has become increasingly calm, with the decrease of strong wind frequency between 2000 and 2011, corresponding to the increase in the MMCBA over time. Therefore, we conclude that changes in wind patterns related to climate change have favored the increase of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu. PMID:25747360

  5. Hot gas ingestion test results of a two-poster vectored thrust concept with flow visualization in the NASA Lewis 9- by 15-foot low speed wind tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johns, Albert L.; Neiner, George; Bencic, Timothy J.; Flood, Joseph D.; Amuedo, Kurt C.

    1990-01-01

    A 9.2 percent scale STOVL hot gas ingestion model was tested in the NASA Lewis 9 x 15-foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel. Flow visualization from the Phase 1 test program, which evaluated the hot ingestion phenomena and control techniques, is covered. The Phase 2 test program evaluated the hot gas ingestion phenomena at higher temperatures and used a laser sheet to investigate the flow field. Hot gas ingestion levels were measured for the several forward nozzle splay configurations and with flow control/life improvement devices (LIDs) which reduced the hot gas ingestion. The test was conducted at full scale nozzle pressure ratios and inlet Mach numbers. Results are presented over a range of nozzle pressure ratios at a 10 kn headwind velocity. The Phase 2 program was conducted at exhaust nozzle temperatures up to 1460 R and utilized a sheet laser system for flow visualization of the model flow field in and out of ground effects. The results reported are for nozzle exhaust temperatures up to 1160 R and contain the compressor face pressure and temperature distortions, the total pressure recovery, the inlet temperature rise, and the environmental effects of the hot gas. The environmental effects include the ground plane contours, the model airframe heating, and the location of the ground flow separation.

  6. Coherent Doppler Lidar for Boundary Layer Studies and Wind Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choukulkar, Aditya

    This thesis outlines the development of a vector retrieval technique, based on data assimilation, for a coherent Doppler LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A detailed analysis of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) technique for vector retrieval is presented. Through several modifications to the OI technique, it is shown that the modified technique results in significant improvement in velocity retrieval accuracy. These modifications include changes to innovation covariance portioning, covariance binning, and analysis increment calculation. It is observed that the modified technique is able to make retrievals with better accuracy, preserves local information better, and compares well with tower measurements. In order to study the error of representativeness and vector retrieval error, a lidar simulator was constructed. Using the lidar simulator a thorough sensitivity analysis of the lidar measurement process and vector retrieval is carried out. The error of representativeness as a function of scales of motion and sensitivity of vector retrieval to look angle is quantified. Using the modified OI technique, study of nocturnal flow in Owens' Valley, CA was carried out to identify and understand uncharacteristic events on the night of March 27th 2006. Observations from 1030 UTC to 1230 UTC (0230 hr local time to 0430 hr local time) on March 27 2006 are presented. Lidar observations show complex and uncharacteristic flows such as sudden bursts of westerly cross-valley wind mixing with the dominant up-valley wind. Model results from Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS RTM) and other in-situ instrumentations are used to corroborate and complement these observations. The modified OI technique is used to identify uncharacteristic and extreme flow events at a wind development site. Estimates of turbulence and shear from this technique are compared to tower measurements. A formulation for equivalent wind speed in the presence of variations in wind speed and direction, combined with shear is developed and used to determine wind energy content in presence of turbulence.

  7. Trade wind inversion variability, dynamics and future change in Hawai'i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Guangxia

    Using 1979-2003 radiosonde data at Hilo and Lihu'e, Hawai'i, the trade-wind inversion (TWI) is found to occur approximately 82% of the time at each station, with average base heights of 2225 +/- 14.3 m (781.9 +/- 1.4 hPa) for Hilo and 2076 +/- 12.5 m (798.8 +/- 1.2 hPa) for Lihu'e. A Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) meso-scale meteorological simulation suggests that island topography and heating contribute to the lifting of the TWI base at Hilo. Inversion base height has a September maximum and a secondary maximum in April. Frequency of inversion occurrence is significantly higher during winters and lower during summers of El Nino years. During the period of 1979-2003, the inversion frequency of occurrence is on upward trend at Hilo for spring (MAM), summer (JJA), and fall (SON) seasons and at Lihu'e for all seasons and for annual values. Composite analysis shows that patterns of geopotential height (GPH), air temperature, u- and v-wind, omega wind, relative and specific humidity, upward longwave radiation flux, net longwave radiation flux, precipitable water, convective precipitation rate, and total cloud cover significantly respond to the TWI base height. For example, the GPH pattern contains a distinctive Pacific North America Teleconnection (PNA) signature, and the magnitudes of PNA centers over 45°N, 165°W for the difference between none and inversion is over 40 m at 200 hPa and 25 m at 850 hPa. The monthly composites show that months with lower (higher) inversion base height and higher (lower) inversion occurrence frequency are linked with the following characteristics: lower (higher) GPH anomalies centered at 30°N, 160°W, lower (higher) temperature anomalies within 300--700 hPa, stronger (weaker) easterly at low levels and northerly anomaly over Hawai'i, and small upward (downward) vertical wind or rising (sinking) motion north of Hawai'i. Using the above characteristics to study the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) composites leads to the prediction that the TWI under increased CO2 forcing atmosphere will be lower in base height and more frequently.

  8. Ionospheric traveling convection vortices observed near the polar cleft - A triggered response to sudden changes in the solar wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friis-Christensen, E.; Vennerstrom, S.; Mchenry, M. A.; Clauer, C. R.

    1988-01-01

    Analysis of 20-second resolution magnetometer data from an array of temporary stations operated around Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland, during the summer of 1986 shows the signatures of localized ionospheric traveling convection vortices. An example of an isolated event of this kind observed near 08 local time is presented in detail. This event consists of a twin vortex pattern of convection consistent with the presence of two field-aligned current filaments separated by about 600 km in the east-west direction. This system of currents is observed to move westward (tailward) past the array of stations at about 4 km/sec. The event is associated with relative quiet time ionospheric convection and occurs during an interval of northward IMF. It is, however, associated with a large fluctuation in both the Z and Y components of the IMF and with a large sudden decrease in the solar wind number density. The propagation of the system is inconsistent with existing models of FTE current systems, but nevertheless appears to be related to a readjustment of the magnetopause boundary to a sudden change in the solar wind dynamic pressure and/or to a change in reconnection brought about by a sudden reorientation of the IMF.

  9. Estimation of the (change in the) probability of simultaneous extreme weather events - a case study for snow & wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van den Brink, H. W.; van den Berg, W. D.

    2010-09-01

    Society is vulnerable for extreme weather events. Especially the simultaneous occurrence of multiple weather variable may lead to hazards. Examples are high astronomical tides and surges for sea dikes, and snow melt and precipitation for river discharges. Here we highlight the probability of the simultaneous occurrence of high wind speeds and extreme (wet) snowfall. Such a situation led at 25/26 November 2005 to the rupture of many high voltage overhead lines, leading to power failure for multiple regions in The Netherlands and Germany. The Netherlands Electrical Committee was interested in the probability of such an event, as well as in the change of the probability in a changing climate. We used the 5-member ensemble 18-year hindcast of the monthly forecasts of the ECMWF from March 2008 to March 2009. The negligible skill in the model for forecasts of 7 days and further results in more than 100,000 independent days, resembling 300 independent years of ‘synthetic' weather. This huge dataset enabled us to look for analogues compared to the observed situation, and to estimate the probability of such events with more accuracy than directly from the observed data. Other advantages are that it enables to study the sensitivity and probability for a larger region, and to analyze the effect of climate change. After comparing the model's Probability Density Functions (PDFs) with the observed PDFs for wind, snowfall, precipitation and temperature, we concluded that the a similar event like the 25/26 November 2005 case has locally a return period of about 100 years. For an arbitrary location in The Netherlands, the probability of such an event is once in 50 years. Climate change will presumably lead to a reduction of 10-50% in the number of critical situations. The main reason is that the expected temperature rise will decrease the probability of temperatures around 0°C, and thus the probability on wet-snow conditions. This temperature effect is considerably larger than the (uncertain) effect of changes in wind- and precipitation climate. Ensemble predictions thus point out to have an unexpected application to determine probabilities of (simultaneous) weather events. The research was coordinated by KEMA, and funded by the Netherlands Electrical Committee, as part of NEC 11/36: "high voltage overhead lines and isolators".

  10. Analysis of Age-Related Changes in Asian Facial Skeletons Using 3D Vector Mathematics on Picture Archiving and Communication System Computed Tomography

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Soo Jin; Kim, So Jung; Park, Jee Soo; Byun, Sung Wan

    2015-01-01

    Purpose There are marked differences in facial skeletal characteristics between Asian and Caucasian. However, ethnic differences in age-related facial skeletal changes have not yet been fully established. The aims of this study were to evaluate age-related changes in Asian midfacial skeletons and to explore ethnic differences in facial skeletal structures with aging between Caucasian and Asian. Materials and Methods The study included 108 men (aged 20-79 years) and 115 women (aged 20-81 years). Axial CT images with a gantry tilt angle of 0 were analyzed. We measured three-dimensional (3D) coordinates at each point with a pixel lens cursor in a picture archiving and communication system (PACS), and angles and widths between the points were calculated using 3D vector mathematics. We analyzed angular changes in 4 bony regions, including the glabellar, orbital, maxillary, and pyriform aperture regions, and changes in the orbital aperture width (distance from the posterior lacrimal crest to the frontozygomatic suture) and the pyriform width (between both upper margins of the pyriform aperture). Results All 4 midfacial angles in females and glabellar and maxillary angles in males showed statistically significant decreases with aging. On the other hand, the orbital and pyriform widths did not show statistically significant changes with aging. Conclusion The results of this study suggest that Asian midfacial skeletons may change continuously throughout life, and that there may be significant differences in the midfacial skeleton between both sexes and between ethnic groups. PMID:26256986

  11. The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Walker O.; Dinniman, Michael S.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.

    2014-03-01

    The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating Antarctic sea ice and is biologically productive, which makes changes in the region's physical environment of global concern. We examined the effects of projected changes in atmospheric temperatures and winds on aspects of the ocean circulation likely important to primary production using a high-resolution sea ice-ocean-ice shelf model of the Ross Sea. The modeled summer sea-ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The duration of shallow mixed layers over the continental shelf increased by 8.5 and 19.2 days in 2050 and 2100, and the mean summer mixed layer depths decreased by 12 and 44%. These results suggest that the annual phytoplankton production in the future will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean's most pristine ecosystem.

  12. Late Holocene changes in precipitation in northwest Tasmania and their potential links to shifts in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, K. M.; Kamenik, C.; Hodgson, D. A.; Hunziker, S.; Siffert, L.; Fischer, D.; Fujak, M.; Gibson, J. A. E.; Grosjean, M.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate projections of future climate changes in regions susceptible to drought depend on a good understanding of past climate changes and the processes driving them. In the absence of longer term instrumental data, paleoclimate data are needed. In this study we develop a precipitation reconstruction for Rebecca Lagoon (41°11'S, 144°41'E), northwest Tasmania. First, the relationship between scanning reflectance spectroscopy measurements of sediment cores in the visible spectrum (380-730 nm) and instrumental precipitation record (1912-2009) was used to develop a model to reconstruct precipitation back in time. Results showed that the ratio of reflectance between 660 and 670 nm (i.e., reflectance at 660 nm/reflectance at 670 nm; a measure of pigment diagenesis) was significantly related to annual precipitation. A calibration model was developed (R = - 0.56, pauto < 0.001, RMSEP = 43.0 mm yr- 1, 5 year triangular filtered data, calibration period 1912-2009). Second, this calibration-in-time model was used to reconstruct late Holocene precipitation changes over the last ~ 3000 years. This showed relatively dry conditions from ca. 3100-2800 cal yr BP, wet conditions from ca. 2800-2400 cal yr BP, dry conditions from ca. 2400-2000 calyr BP, and variable conditions after this. Relatively wet conditions occurred from ca. 500 cal yr BP to the late AD 1800 s (ca. 50 cal. yr BP). The precipitation reconstruction indicates that conditions were relatively dry for the 20th century compared to the last ~ 3000 years. In particular, the dry period measured in recent decades is one of the most intense in at least the last 500 years. As precipitation in this region is primarily driven by the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, these changes are discussed in terms of shifts in westerly wind strength and/or position.

  13. Impact of land use change on wind erosion and dust emission: scenarios from the central US

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There will be significant changes in land cover and land use throughout the central United States in the coming years, particularly as a result of climate change, changes in US rangeland/farm policy, and increasing exploitation of land-intensive sustainable energy sources. The purpose of this study ...

  14. Hot gas ingestion test results of a two-poster vectored thrust concept with flow visualization in the NASA Lewis 9- x 15-foot low speed wind tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johns, Albert L.; Neiner, George; Bencic, Timothy J.; Flood, Joseph D.; Amuedo, Kurt C.; Strock, Thomas W.

    1990-01-01

    A 9.2 percent scale Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing (STOVL) hot gas ingestion model was designed and built by McDonnell Douglas Corporation (MCAIR) and tested in the Lewis Research Center 9 x 15 foot Low Speed Wind Tunnel (LSWT). Hot gas ingestion, the entrainment of heated engine exhaust into the inlet flow field, is a key development issure for advanced short takeoff and vertical landing aircraft. Flow visualization from the Phase 1 test program, which evaluated the hot ingestion phenomena and control techniques, is covered. The Phase 2 test program evaluated the hot gas ingestion phenomena at higher temperatures and used a laser sheet to investigate the flow field. Hot gas ingestion levels were measured for the several forward nozzle splay configurations and with flow control/life improvement devices (LIDs) which reduced the hot gas ingestion. The model support system had four degrees of freedom - pitch, roll, yaw, and vertical height variation. The model support system also provided heated high-pressure air for nozzle flow and a suction system exhaust for inlet flow. The test was conducted at full scale nozzle pressure ratios and inlet Mach numbers. Test and data analysis results from Phase 2 and flow visualization from both Phase 1 and 2 are documented. A description of the model and facility modifications is also provided. Headwind velocity was varied from 10 to 23 kn. Results are presented over a range of nozzle pressure ratios at a 10 kn headwind velocity. The Phase 2 program was conducted at exhaust nozzle temperatures up to 1460 R and utilized a sheet laser system for flow visualization of the model flow field in and out of ground effects. The results reported are for nozzle exhaust temperatures up to 1160 R. These results will contain the compressor face pressure and temperature distortions, the total pressure recovery, the inlet temperature rise, and the environmental effects of the hot gas. The environmental effects include the ground plane contours, the model airframe heating, and the location of the ground flow separation.

  15. Fractional Factorial Experiment Designs to Minimize Configuration Changes in Wind Tunnel Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeLoach, Richard; Cler, Daniel L.; Graham, Albert B.

    2002-01-01

    This paper serves as a tutorial to introduce the wind tunnel research community to configuration experiment designs that can satisfy resource constraints in a configuration study involving several variables, without arbitrarily eliminating any of them from the experiment initially. The special case of a configuration study featuring variables at two levels is examined in detail. This is the type of study in which each configuration variable has two natural states - 'on or off', 'deployed or not deployed', 'low or high', and so forth. The basic principles are illustrated by results obtained in configuration studies conducted in the Langley National Transonic Facility and in the ViGYAN Low Speed Tunnel in Hampton, Virginia. The crucial role of interactions among configuration variables is highlighted with an illustration of difficulties that can be encountered when they are not properly taken into account.

  16. Decades-long changes of the interstellar wind through our solar system.

    PubMed

    Frisch, P C; Bzowski, M; Livadiotis, G; McComas, D J; Moebius, E; Mueller, H-R; Pryor, W R; Schwadron, N A; Sokół, J M; Vallerga, J V; Ajello, J M

    2013-09-01

    The journey of the Sun through the dynamically active local interstellar medium creates an evolving heliosphere environment. This motion drives a wind of interstellar material through the heliosphere that has been measured with Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft for 40 years. Recent results obtained by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission during 2009-2010 suggest that neutral interstellar atoms flow into the solar system from a different direction than found previously. These prior measurements represent data collected from Ulysses and other spacecraft during 1992-2002 and a variety of older measurements acquired during 1972-1978. Consideration of all data types and their published results and uncertainties, over the three epochs of observations, indicates that the trend for the interstellar flow ecliptic longitude to increase linearly with time is statistically significant. PMID:24009386

  17. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields*

    PubMed Central

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2013-01-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components. PMID:24353452

  18. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

    PubMed

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2012-02-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components. PMID:24353452

  19. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ecological Interaction Outcomes Between Two Disease-Vector Mosquitoes: A Mesocosm Experimental Study.

    PubMed

    Leonel, B F; Koroiva, R; Hamada, N; Ferreira-Keppler, R L; Roque, F O

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to experimentally assess the effects of different climate change scenarios on the outcomes of interactions between Aedes aegypti (L.) and Culex quinquefasciatus (Say) (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae. The experimental design maintained a constant density of specimens while the proportion of the species in different experimental climate change scenarios varied. Our results indicate that survival of the two species was not affected, but larval development and pupation times decreased under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration and high air temperature. In climate change scenarios with both species together, the survival of Ae. aegypti increased and its larval development time decreased with increasing density of Cx. quinquefasciatus. This may be attributed to the effects of intraspecific competition being more significant than interspecific competition in Ae. aegypti. Our study also reveals that climatic changes may affect the patterns of interactions between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti. Alterations in climatic conditions changed the response of context-dependent competition, indicating the importance of studies on how ecological interactions will be affected by projected future climatic change. PMID:26336208

  20. Medical Education in the Anatomical Sciences: The Winds of Change Continue to Blow

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drake, Richard L.; McBride, Jennifer M.; Lachman, Nirusha; Pawlina, Wojciech

    2009-01-01

    At most institutions, education in the anatomical sciences has undergone several changes over the last decade. To identify the changes that have occurred in gross anatomy, microscopic anatomy, neuroscience/neuroanatomy, and embryology courses, directors of these courses were asked to respond to a survey with questions pertaining to total course…

  1. Planetary period oscillations in Saturn's magnetosphere: Examining the relationship between abrupt changes in behavior and solar wind-induced magnetospheric compressions and expansions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provan, G.; Tao, C.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.

    2015-11-01

    We examine planetary period oscillations (PPOs) observed in Saturn's magnetospheric magnetic field data from the time of Saturn's equinox in 2009. In particular, we focus on the time period commencing February 2011, when the oscillations started to display sudden and unexpected changes in behavior at ~100-200 day intervals. These were characterized by large simultaneous changes in the amplitude of the northern and southern PPO systems, together with small changes in period and jumps in phase. Nine significant abrupt changes have been observed in the postequinox interval to date, commencing as the Sun started to emerge from a long extended solar minimum. We perform a statistical study to determine whether these modulations in PPO behavior were associated with changes in the solar and/or upstream solar wind conditions. We report that the upstream solar wind conditions show elevated values of solar wind dynamic pressure and density around the time of PPO behavioral transitions, as opposed to before and after these times. We suggest that abrupt changes in PPO behavior may be related to significant changes in the size of the Saturnian magnetosphere in response to varying solar wind conditions.

  2. Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic approaches to impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Sutherst, R W

    1998-06-01

    Global change is pervasive and occurring at a dramatic rate. It involves changes in land use, vegetation cover, species translocations and even the climate of the planet. The consequences for the biosphere are uncertain. Past research emphasis has been on the science of climate change as the major driver of policy. The present priority in the global-change community is to define the likely nature and extent of those impacts on biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems. In addition, increasing consideration is now being given to adaptation measures. The way in which that is being initiated is to develop adaptation measures to respond to medium-term climate variability in the form of altered El Nino and similar cycles, and changes in the frequency of extreme events. Given the large number of stakeholders in agriculture, human health and environment, there is a need for great efficiencies if the scientific community is going to be able to respond in a meaningful way with foreseeable resources. The plethora of problems means that generic approaches are needed. The present situation, with parasitologists each doing their own thing in terms of developing and using software tools, is like the tower of Babel. Parasitologists need common tools and languages to facilitate communication and collaboration. Advances in computing, with object-oriented programming languages and seamless exchange of information between different packages and platforms, are providing some exciting opportunities to overcome these problems. PMID:9673872

  3. A device for rapid determination of thermophysical properties of phase-change wind-tunnel models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creel, T. R., Jr.

    1976-01-01

    An experimental method for direct measurement of the thermophysical properties of wind tunnel heat transfer models was developed. The technique consists of placing the model under a bank of high intensity, radiant heaters so that the fast opening water cooled shutters, which isolate the heater bank from the model, allow a step-input heat rate to be applied. Measurements of the heat transfer rate coupled with a surface-temperature time history of the same material are sufficient to determine the material thermophysical properties. An infrared thermometer is used to measure model surface temperature and a slug calorimeter provides heat transfer rate information. The output from the infrared thermometer and calorimeter is then fed into an analog-to-digital converter which provides digitized data to a computer. This computer then calculates combined thermophysical properties and a teleprinter prints out all the data. Thus, results are available within 7 minutes of test initiation as opposed to the weeks or months required using prior techniques.

  4. Vectors, Change of Basis and Matrix Representation: Onto-Semiotic Approach in the Analysis of Creating Meaning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montiel, Mariana; Wilhelmi, Miguel R.; Vidakovic, Draga; Elstak, Iwan

    2012-01-01

    In a previous study, the onto-semiotic approach was employed to analyse the mathematical notion of different coordinate systems, as well as some situations and university students' actions related to these coordinate systems in the context of multivariate calculus. This study approaches different coordinate systems through the process of change of…

  5. Vectors, Change of Basis and Matrix Representation: Onto-Semiotic Approach in the Analysis of Creating Meaning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montiel, Mariana; Wilhelmi, Miguel R.; Vidakovic, Draga; Elstak, Iwan

    2012-01-01

    In a previous study, the onto-semiotic approach was employed to analyse the mathematical notion of different coordinate systems, as well as some situations and university students' actions related to these coordinate systems in the context of multivariate calculus. This study approaches different coordinate systems through the process of change of

  6. Changes in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling with solar cycle, season, and time relative to stream interfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPherron, Robert L.; Baker, Daniel N.; Pulkkinen, T. I.; Hsu, T.-S.; Kissinger, J.; Chu, X.

    2013-07-01

    Geomagnetic activity depends on a variety of factors including solar zenith angle, solar UV, strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, speed and density of the solar wind, orientation of the Earth’s dipole, distance of the Earth from Sun, occurrence of CMEs and CIRs, and possibly other parameters. We have investigated some of these using state-dependant linear prediction filters. For a given state a prediction filter transforms a coupling function such as rectified solar wind electric field (VBs) to an output like the auroral electrojet index (AL). The area of this filter calculated from the sum of the filter coefficients measures the strength of the coupling. When the input and output are steady for a time longer than the duration of the filter the ratio of output to input is equal to this area. We find coupling strength defined in this way for Es=VBs to AL (and AU) is weakest at solar maximum and strongest at solar minimum. AL coupling displays a semiannual variation being weakest at the solstices and strongest at the equinoxes. AU coupling has only an annual variation being strongest at summer solstice. AL and AU coupling also vary with time relative to a stream interface. Es coupling is weaker after the interface, but ULF coupling is stronger. Total prediction efficiency remains about constant at the interface. The change in coupling strength with the solar cycle can be explained as an effect of more frequent saturation of the polar cap potential causing a smaller ratio of AL to Es. Stronger AL coupling at the equinoxes possibly indicates some process that makes magnetic reconnection less efficient when the dipole axis is tilted along the Earth-Sun line. Strong AU coupling at summer solstice is likely due to high conductivity in northern summer. Coupling changes at a stream interface are correlated with the presence of strong wave activity in ground and satellite measurements and may be an artifact of the method by which solar wind data are propagated.

  7. Wind turbine

    DOEpatents

    Cheney, Jr., Marvin C.

    1982-01-01

    A wind turbine of the type having an airfoil blade (15) mounted on a flexible beam (20) and a pitch governor (55) which selectively, torsionally twists the flexible beam in response to wind turbine speed thereby setting blade pitch, is provided with a limiter (85) which restricts unwanted pitch change at operating speeds due to torsional creep of the flexible beam. The limiter allows twisting of the beam by the governor under excessive wind velocity conditions to orient the blades in stall pitch positions, thereby preventing overspeed operation of the turbine. In the preferred embodiment, the pitch governor comprises a pendulum (65,70) which responds to changing rotor speed by pivotal movement, the limiter comprising a resilient member (90) which engages an end of the pendulum to restrict further movement thereof, and in turn restrict beam creep and unwanted blade pitch misadjustment.

  8. PULSED ALFVEN WAVES IN THE SOLAR WIND

    SciTech Connect

    Gosling, J. T.; Tian, H.; Phan, T. D.

    2011-08-20

    Using 3 s plasma and magnetic field data from the Wind spacecraft located in the solar wind well upstream from Earth, we report observations of isolated, pulse-like Alfvenic disturbances in the solar wind. These isolated events are characterized by roughly plane-polarized rotations in the solar wind magnetic field and velocity vectors away from the directions of the underlying field and velocity and then back again. They pass over Wind on timescales ranging from seconds to several minutes. These isolated, pulsed Alfven waves are pervasive; we have identified 175 such events over the full range of solar wind speeds (320-550 km s{sup -1}) observed in a randomly chosen 10 day interval. The large majority of these events are propagating away from the Sun in the solar wind rest frame. Maximum field rotations in the interval studied ranged from 6 Degree-Sign to 109 Degree-Sign . Similar to most Alfvenic fluctuations in the solar wind at 1 AU, the observed changes in velocity are typically less than that predicted for pure Alfven waves (Alfvenicity ranged from 0.28 to 0.93). Most of the events are associated with small enhancements or depressions in magnetic field strength and small changes in proton number density and/or temperature. The pulse-like and roughly symmetric nature of the magnetic field and velocity rotations in these events suggests that these Alfvenic disturbances are not evolving when observed. They thus appear to be, and probably are, solitary waves. It is presently uncertain how these waves originate, although they may evolve out of Alfvenic turbulence.

  9. Method for determining thermo-physical properties of specimens. [photographic recording of changes in thin film phase-change temperature indicating material in wind tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, R. A. (Inventor)

    1974-01-01

    The square root of the product of thermophysical properties q, c and k, where p is density, c is specific heat and k is thermal conductivity, is determined directly on a test specimen such as a wind tunnel model. The test specimen and a reference specimen of known specific heat are positioned at a given distance from a heat source. The specimens are provided with a coating, such as a phase change coating, to visually indicate that a given temperature was reached. A shutter interposed between the heat source and the specimens is opened and a motion picture camera is actuated to provide a time record of the heating step. The temperature of the reference specimen is recorded as a function of time. The heat rate to which both the test and reference specimens were subjected is determined from the temperature time response of the reference specimen by the conventional thin-skin calorimeter equation.

  10. Three Dimensional Dynamic Model Based Wind Field Reconstruction from Lidar Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raach, Steffen; Schlipf, David; Haizmann, Florian; Cheng, Po Wen

    2014-06-01

    Using the inflowing horizontal and vertical wind shears for individual pitch controller is a promising method if blade bending measurements are not available. Due to the limited information provided by a lidar system the reconstruction of shears in real-time is a challenging task especially for the horizontal shear in the presence of changing wind direction. The internal model principle has shown to be a promising approach to estimate the shears and directions in 10 minutes averages with real measurement data. The static model based wind vector field reconstruction is extended in this work taking into account a dynamic reconstruction model based on Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis. The presented method provides time series over several seconds of the wind speed, shears and direction, which can be directly used in advanced optimal preview control. Therefore, this work is an important step towards the application of preview individual blade pitch control under realistic wind conditions. The method is tested using a turbulent wind field and a detailed lidar simulator. For the simulation, the turbulent wind field structure is flowing towards the lidar system and is continuously misaligned with respect to the horizontal axis of the wind turbine. Taylor's Frozen Turbulence Hypothesis is taken into account to model the wind evolution. For the reconstruction, the structure is discretized into several stages where each stage is reduced to an effective wind speed, superposed with a linear horizontal and vertical wind shear. Previous lidar measurements are shifted using again Taylor's Hypothesis. The wind field reconstruction problem is then formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem, which minimizes the residual between the assumed wind model and the lidar measurements to obtain the misalignment angle and the effective wind speed and the wind shears for each stage. This method shows good results in reconstructing the wind characteristics of a three dimensional turbulent wind field in real-time, scanned by a lidar system with an optimized trajectory.

  11. The national assessment of shoreline change: a GIS compilation of vector cliff edges and associated cliff erosion data for the California coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, Cheryl; Reid, David; Borrelli, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has generated a comprehensive data clearinghouse of digital vector cliff edges and associated rates of cliff retreat along the open-ocean California coast. These data, which are presented herein, were compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project. Cliff erosion is a chronic problem along many coastlines of the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information including rates and trends of coastal cliff retreat. There is also a critical need for these data to be consistent from one region to another. One objective of this work is to a develop standard, repeatable methodology for mapping and analyzing cliff edge retreat so that periodic, systematic, and internally consistent updates of cliff edge position and associated rates of erosion can be made at a national scale. This data compilation for open-ocean cliff edges for the California coast is a separate, yet related study to Hapke and others, 2006 documenting shoreline change along sandy shorelines of the California coast, which is itself one in a series that includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast Atlantic coast (Morton and others, 2004; Morton and Miller, 2005). Future reports and data compilations will include coverage of the Northeast U.S., the Great Lakes, Hawaii and Alaska. Cliff edge change is determined by comparing the positions of one historical cliff edge digitized from maps with a modern cliff edge derived from topographic LIDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys. Historical cliff edges for the California coast represent the 1920s-1930s time-period; the most recent cliff edge was delineated using data collected between 1998 and 2002. End-point rate calculations were used to evaluate rates of erosion between the two cliff edges. Please refer to our full report on cliff edge erosion along the California coastline at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1133/ for additional information regarding methods and results (Hapke and others, 2007). Data in this report are organized into downloadable layers by region (Northern, Central and Southern California) and are provided as vector datasets with accompanying metadata. Vector cliff edges may represent a compilation of data from one or more sources and the sources used are included in the dataset metadata. This project employs the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS as it's Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping tool and contains several data layers (shapefiles) that are used to create a geographic view of the California coast. The vector data form a basemap comprising polygon and line themes that include a U.S. coastline (1:80,000), U.S. cities, and state boundaries.

  12. Differentiation between treatment-related changes and progressive disease in patients with high grade brain tumors using support vector machine classification based on DCE MRI.

    PubMed

    Artzi, Moran; Liberman, Gilad; Nadav, Guy; Blumenthal, Deborah T; Bokstein, Felix; Aizenstein, Orna; Ben Bashat, Dafna

    2016-05-01

    Differentiation between treatment-related changes and progressive disease (PD) remains a major clinical challenge in the follow-up of patients with high grade brain tumors. The aim of this study was to differentiate between treatment-related changes and PD using dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI. Twenty patients were scanned using conventional, DCE-MRI and MR spectroscopy (total of 44 MR scans). The enhanced lesion area was extracted using independent components analysis of the DCE data. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated from the DCE data based on the Extended-Tofts-Model. Voxel based classification for treatment-related changes versus PD was performed in a patient-wise leave-one-out manner, using a support vector machine classifier. DCE parameters, K (trans), v e, k ep and v p, significantly differentiated between the tissue types. Classification results were validated using spectroscopy data showing significantly higher choline/creatine values in the extracted PD component compared to areas with treatment-related changes and normal appearing white matter, and high correlation between choline/creatine values and the percentage of the identified PD component within the lesion area (r = 0.77, p < 0.001). On the training data the sensitivity and specificity were 98 and 97 %, respectively, for the treatment-related changes component and 97 and 98 % for the PD component. This study proposes a methodology based on DCE-MRI to differentiate lesion areas into treatment-related changes versus PD, prospectively in each scan. Results may have major clinical importance for pre-operative planning, guidance for targeting biopsy, and early prediction of radiological outcomes in patients with high grade brain tumors. PMID:26754857

  13. Holocene changes in a park-forest vegetation mosaic in the Wind River Range, Wyoming

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, E.A. )

    1994-06-01

    The modern mod-elevation vegetation of the Rocky Mountains is a mosaic of conifer forests and open parks dominated by sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), grasses, and other herbs. It is not known how this pattern originated or how sensitive the balance between forest and park is to disturbance. Using pollen from sediments of five small ponds in Fish Creek Park, WY (elev. 2700 m), I reconstructed the last 8000 yrs of changes in the park-forest mosaic in an are about 16 km[sup 2]. Surface samples collected from 52 ponds in the Fish Creek Park area and from forest and park sites in Wyoming and Colorado indicate that park and forest pollen assemblages can be distinguished using multivariate statistical methods and conifer:herb pollen ratios. Fossil pollen from the five sediment cores shows that the distribution of the two vegetation types on the landscape has changed through the Holocene, and that the changes in vegetation are gradual. Past changes from park to forest have apparently occurred much more slowly than changes from forest to park, suggesting that areas subjected to recent clearcutting may remain unforested for centuries.

  14. Aerodynamics of thrust vectoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tseng, J. B.; Lan, C. Edward

    1989-01-01

    Thrust vectoring as a means to enhance maneuverability and aerodynamic performane of a tactical aircraft is discussed. This concept usually involves the installation of a multifunction nozzle. With the nozzle, the engine thrust can be changed in direction without changing the attitude of the aircraft. Change in the direction of thrust induces a significant change in the aerodynamic forces on the aircraft. Therefore, this device can be used for lift-augmenting as well as stability and control purposes. When the thrust is deflected in the longitudinal direction, the lift force and the pitching stability can be manipulated, while the yawing stability can be controlled by directing the thrust in the lateral direction.

  15. Winds of Change in the English Language--Air of Peril for Native Speakers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paradowski, Michal B.

    2008-01-01

    English today is one of the most hybrid and rapidly changing languages in the world. New users of the language are not just passively absorbing, but actively shaping it, breeding a variety of regional Englishes, as well as pidgins and English-lexified creoles. Also, as in an increasing number of countries English is becoming an element of core…

  16. Winds of Change: Latinos in the Heartland and the Nation. JSRI Statistical Brief No. 5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aponte, Robert; Siles, Marcelo E.

    This statistical brief provides a follow-up assessment of the changing demographic and economic landscape of the Midwest between 1980 and 1990. Latino population growth in the Midwest during the 1980s was modest, but since the region's other groups experienced minimal or negative growth, Latino growth accounted for over half the Midwest's total…

  17. The Winds of Change in Russian Higher Education: Is the East Moving West?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Timoshenko, Konstantin

    2011-01-01

    In the last 30 years, major changes have taken place in the public sector worldwide under the rubric of New Public Management [NPM]. The education sector is perhaps one of the key areas drawing an intense interest and discussion in the wake of NPM. The Russian State seems to be no longer an exception to this global trend. In line with this, the…

  18. Delineation of QRS offset by instantaneous changes in ECG vector angle can improve detection of acute inferior myocardial infarctions.

    PubMed

    Starc, Vito; Schlegel, Todd T

    2016-01-01

    We developed an automated new method for determining QRS offset, based on angular velocity (AV) changes around the QRS loop, and compared the method's performance to that of manual and more established automated methods for determining QRS offset in both healthy subjects and patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Specifically, using Frank leads reconstructed from standard 12-lead ECGs, we determined AV in the direction of change raised to the 4th power, d(t). We found that the d(t)-determined AV transition (ΔAV) nearly coincided with manually determined QRS offset in healthy subjects, and in 27 patients with anterior AMI. However, in 31 patients with inferior AMI, ΔAV typically preceded that of QRS offset determined by the established automated methods, and by more than 10ms in 32% of cases. While this "ΔAV precedence" coincided with diagnostic ST elevation in only a minority of patients with recent inferior AMI, the use of ΔAV precedence as a complement to traditional determination of ST elevation increased the sensitivity for detecting inferior AMIs from 23 to 42%. PMID:26979381

  19. Changes in the High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density Profiles in Response to Solar-Wind Perturbations During Large Magnetic Storms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Arbacher, Becca

    2011-01-01

    The latest results from an investigation to establish links between solar-wind and topside-ionospheric parameters will be presented including a case where high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles indicated dramatic rapid changes in the scale height during the main phase of a large magnetic storm (Dst < -200 nT). These scale-height changes suggest a large heat input to the topside ionosphere at this time. The topside profiles were derived from ISIS-1 digital ionograms obtained from the NASA Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) Coordinated Data Analysis Web (CDA Web). Solar-wind data obtained from the NASA OMNIWeb database indicated that the magnetic storm was due to a magnetic cloud. This event is one of several large magnetic storms being investigated during the interval from 1965 to 1984 when both solar-wind and digital topside ionograms, from either Alouette-2, ISIS-1, or ISIS-2, are potentially available.

  20. Vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Gubler, D J

    2009-08-01

    Vector-borne diseases have been the scourge of man and animals since the beginning of time. Historically, these are the diseases that caused the great plagues such as the 'Black Death' in Europe in the 14th Century and the epidemics of yellow fever that plagued the development of the New World. Others, such as Nagana, contributed to the lack of development in Africa for many years. At the turn of the 20th Century, vector-borne diseases were among the most serious public and animal health problems in the world. For the most part, these diseases were controlled by the middle of the 20th Century through the application of knowledge about their natural history along with the judicious use of DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and other residual insecticides to interrupt the transmission cycle between arthropod and vertebrate host. However, this success initiated a period of complacency in the 1960s and 1970s, which resulted in the redirection of resources away from prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. The 1970s was also a time in which there were major changes to public health policy. Global trends, combined with changes in animal husbandry, urbanisation, modern transportation and globalisation, have resulted in a global re-emergence of epidemic vector-borne diseases affecting both humans and animals over the past 30 years. PMID:20128467

  1. Time changes of solar activity, interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind velocity at the Earth's orbit in different spectral bands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, Tamara V.; Tsirulnik, Lev B.

    2008-02-01

    We present the results of our analysis of the spectra of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the solar wind velocity (V) calculated on the basis of measurements near the Earth's orbit for the period 1964-1997, and of the sunspot number W. The major aim is to search for similar features in various frequency bands, with an emphasis on the period of solar (sunspot) cycle and its harmonics, and on so-called "intermittent" oscillations at periods and . We also extract trends from the data to determine long-period changes of IMF and V. A method of non-linear spectral analysis, which we term "the method of global minimum" (MGM) is used. MGM allows self-consistent identification of trends from data and nonstationary sinusoids and estimation of statistical significance of spectral components. The IMF and W spectra both show the main solar cycle at . In addition, the spectrum of the IMF includes (at 99.8% confidence levels) harmonics of this cycle with periods of 151.3 and 136.5 d. We also detect nonstationary sinusoids at in the spectra of IMF and of V and describe their parameters. The detailed description of the 1.3-yr oscillations in the solar wind is of particular interest in that the oscillations are likely to be connected to variations in the rotation rate with the same period near the base of convection zone of the Sun discovered in SOHO data. The 1.3-yr oscillations are not present in the W spectra. Instead, we find oscillations at T=1.014 and 0.950 yr and suggest an explanation of their presence. Relation between the variations in the spectra of W and V is not as evident as between W and the IMF, however, it exists. In particular, harmonics of the 10.8-yr solar cycle (e.g., sinusoid at ) are present in the spectrum of V. Components in the spectra described by high-amplitude sinusoids with in the IMF spectrum and with in the V spectrum make contributions to the long-term trends in these parameters. The trend of V demonstrates a 55% increase in the solar wind velocity for the period 1964-1997. The IMF trend shows a 45% increase of the IMF magnitude for the same time interval; extrapolation of this temporal variation to the past leads to a doubling of the IMF value during the last 100 yr.

  2. Three-Dimensional Wind Profiling of Offshore Wind Energy Areas With Airborne Doppler Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, Grady J.; Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Cowen, Larry J.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Grant, Michael S.

    2014-01-01

    A technique has been developed for imaging the wind field over offshore areas being considered for wind farming. This is accomplished with an eye-safe 2-micrometer wavelength coherent Doppler lidar installed in an aircraft. By raster scanning the aircraft over the wind energy area (WEA), a three-dimensional map of the wind vector can be made. This technique was evaluated in 11 flights over the Virginia and Maryland offshore WEAs. Heights above the ocean surface planned for wind turbines are shown to be within the marine boundary layer, and the wind vector is seen to show variation across the geographical area of interest at turbine heights.

  3. Three-dimensional wind profiling of offshore wind energy areas with airborne Doppler lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, Grady J.; Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Cowen, Larry J.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Grant, Michael S.

    2014-01-01

    A technique has been developed for imaging the wind field over offshore areas being considered for wind farming. This is accomplished with an eye-safe 2-μm wavelength coherent Doppler lidar installed in an aircraft. By raster scanning the aircraft over the wind energy area (WEA), a three-dimensional map of the wind vector can be made. This technique was evaluated in 11 flights over the Virginia and Maryland offshore WEAs. Heights above the ocean surface planned for wind turbines are shown to be within the marine boundary layer, and the wind vector is seen to show variation across the geographical area of interest at turbine heights.

  4. The impact of Climate Change on the Iberian Low-Level Wind Jet: EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela; Semedo, Álvaro

    2015-04-01

    A sharp temperature contrast, observed mostly in summer, between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the ocean and the typical summer synoptic scale configuration (high pressure system over the ocean and thermal low inland) are responsible for the development of a coastal low-level jet (CLLJ). The low level horizontal pressure gradient induces, through geostrophic adjustment, a strong alongshore flow, which is also influenced by local orography and the high pressure subsidence over the maritime boundary layer. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX hindcast forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), the historic reference (1960-2006) and the future (2006-2100; RCP8.5) simulations, forced by EC-Earth global model, are used to determine the climate change signal on the CLLJ off the Iberian Peninsula's western coast. Although the boundary conditions of the hindcast and historic reference simulations have different resolutions, both have similar distributions and features of CLLJ. In the summer, a clear rise in the occurrence of CLLJ is expected throughout the 21st century, with the highest increase off the northwest coast of Iberia (~14%). The CLLJ prevailing height is confined between 300 and 400m and the most frequent maximum wind speed is 15ms-1 both in present and future climate, nevertheless a shift to higher values is expected. The predominant wind direction at jet height is north-northeast in all simulations. The temporal evolution of CLLJ occurrence during the 21st century shows that there is no significant trend in spring and autumn, although some decadal variability is observed.

  5. New techniques in 3D scalar and vector field visualization

    SciTech Connect

    Max, N.; Crawfis, R.; Becker, B.

    1993-05-05

    At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) we have recently developed several techniques for volume visualization of scalar and vector fields, all of which use back-to-front compositing. The first renders volume density clouds by compositing polyhedral volume cells or their faces. The second is a ``splatting`` scheme which composites textures used to reconstruct the scalar or vector fields. One version calculates the necessary texture values in software, and another takes advantage of hardware texture mapping. The next technique renders contour surface polygons using semi-transparent textures, which adjust appropriately when the surfaces deform in a flow, or change topology. The final one renders the ``flow volume`` of smoke or dye tracer swept out by a fluid flowing through a small generating polygon. All of these techniques are applied to a climate model data set, to visualize cloud density and wind velocity.

  6. How do cosmic rays change their energy in the solar wind?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, F. C.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion-convection (modulation) equation is derived directly from the Boltzmann equation on the basis of a minimum number of assumptions concerning the scattering process, among which are: (1) that the scattered particles undergo no energy change, and (2) that isotropy is an equilibrium state. It is noted that, in the event that the background plasma contains a magnetic field and the flow speeds of the plasma and scattering centers are different, additional terms arise that will modify the equations. If, moreover, the scatterers have individual motions relative to their average flow, the second-order Fermi acceleration term will appear.

  7. Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States

    PubMed Central

    Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.

    2011-01-01

    The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the fuel is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades. PMID:21536905

  8. Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States.

    PubMed

    Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J

    2011-05-17

    The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades. PMID:21536905

  9. Changes in soil CO2 efflux of organic calcaric soils due to disturbance by wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, M.; Katzensteiner, K.

    2012-04-01

    Disturbances such as windthrow or insect infestations are supposed to have a significant influence on the soil carbon balance of affected forests. Increasing soil temperatures and changes in the soil moisture regime, caused by the removed tree layer, are expected to change soil CO2 efflux, also known as soil respiration. Beside an anticipated stimulation of the carbon mineralization, the main part of root allocated CO2 is offset due to the blown down trees. On mountain forest sites of the Northern Limestone Alps, where highly active organic soils above calcareous parent material are characteristic (Folic Histosols and Rendzic Leptosols), an increase of the mineralization rate of carbon may contribute to enormous humus losses. Serious site degradation can be the consequence, especially on south exposed slopes where extreme climatic conditions occur. The present study tries to give insights to disturbance induced changes in temporal and spatial behaviour of soil respiration for a montane mountain forest located in the Northern Limestone Alps of Upper Austria. Soil respiration, soil temperature and volumetric water content were measured on two windthrow areas (blow down dates were 2007 and 2009 respectively) as well as in an adjacent mature mixed forest during the vegetation periods of 2010 and 2011. Soil respiration in both years was mainly driven by soil temperature, which explained up to 90 % of the concerning temporal variation. Volumetric water content had a significant influence as additional temporal driver. After removing the temperature trend, significant differences in basal soil respiration rates were found for the disturbance area and the forest stand. Inter seasonal declines in soil respiration were ascertained for the mature stand as well as for the recent windthrow. Particular decreases are related to drought stress in summer 2011 and a proceeded decomposition of labile soil carbon components at the windthrow site. An interaction between soil type and stratum showed a distinctive decrease in the soil CO2 efflux pattern for organic soils by comparing the recent and old disturbance areas. Such a downward trend was also detected on the more recently disturbed area in the consecutive years. These findings support the assumption that carbon mineralization can account for excessive losses in soil organic carbon after forest disturbance, whereas organic humus soils are supposed to be particularly vulnerable. This study is part of the INTERREG Bayern-Österreich 2007 -2013 project 'SicAlp - Standortssicherung im Kalkalpin' which is funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and national funding.

  10. Multifractal Behavior of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerasinghe, R. M.; Pannila, A. S.; Jayananda, M. K.; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an analysis of temporal variation of wind speed and wind direction recorded at 10 min intervals are presented. The measurements were carried out at Hambanthota, a site located in the southern coastal belt of Sri Lanka which has a high potential for wind power generation. The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis was used to analyze the temporal scaling properties of wind speeds and wind directions. The analysis was carried out for seasonal variation of wind speed and wind direction. It was observed that the scaling behavior of wind speed in Hambanthota is similar to the scaling behavior observed in previous studies which were carried out in other parts of the world. The seasonal wind and wind direction change exhibits different scaling behavior. No difference in scaling behavior was observed with heights. The degree of multifractality is high for wind direction when compared with wind speed for each season.

  11. Pollen, wind and fire: how to investigate genetic effects of disturbance-induced change in forest trees.

    PubMed

    Bacles, Cecile F E

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the consequences of habitat disturbance on mating patterns although pollen and seed dispersal in forest trees has been a long-standing theme of forest and conservation genetics. Forest ecosystems face global environmental pressures from timber exploitation to genetic pollution and climate change, and it is therefore essential to comprehend how disturbances may alter the dispersal of genes and their establishment in tree populations in order to formulate relevant recommendations for sustainable resource management practices and realistic predictions of potential adaptation to climate change by means of range shift or expansion (Kremer et al. 2012). However, obtaining reliable evidence of disturbance-induced effects on gene dispersal processes from empirical evaluation of forest tree populations is difficult. Indeed, tree species share characteristics such as high longevity, long generation time and large reproductive population size, which may impede the experimenter's ability to assess parameters at the spatial and time scales at which any change may occur (Petit and Hampe 2006). It has been suggested that appropriate study designs should encompass comparison of populations before and after disturbance as well as account for demonstrated variation in conspecific density, that is, the spatial distribution of mates, and forest density, including all species and relating to alteration in landscape openness (Bacles & Jump 2011). However, more often than not, empirical studies aiming to assess the consequences of habitat disturbance on genetic processes in tree populations assume rather than quantify a change in tree densities in forests under disturbance and generally fail to account for population history, which may lead to inappropriate interpretation of a causal relationship between population genetic structure and habitat disturbance due to effects of unmonitored confounding variables (Gauzere et al. 2013). In this issue, Shohami and Nathan (2014) take advantage of the distinctive features of the fire-adapted wind-pollinated Aleppo pine Pinus halepensis (Fig. 1) to provide an elegant example of best practice. Thanks to long-term monitoring of the study site, a natural stand in Israel, Shohami and Nathan witnessed the direct impact of habitat disturbance, here taking the shape of fire, on conspecific and forest densities and compared pre- and postdisturbance mating patterns estimated from cones of different ages sampled on the same surviving maternal individuals (Fig. 2). This excellent study design is all the more strong that Shohami and Nathan took further analytical steps to account for confounding variables, such as historical population genetic structure and possible interannual variation in wind conditions, thus giving high credibility to their findings of unequivocal fire-induced alteration of mating patterns in P. halepensis. Most notably, the authors found, at the pollen pool level, a disruption of local genetic structure which, furthermore, they were able to attribute explicitly to enhanced pollen-mediated gene immigration into the low-density fire-disturbed stand. This cleverly designed research provides a model approach to be followed if we are to advance our understanding of disturbance-induced dispersal and genetic change in forest trees. PMID:24372751

  12. Controlling Compressor Vane Flow Vectoring Angles at Transonic Speeds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munson, Matthew; Rempfer, Dietmar; Williams, David; Acharya, Mukund

    2003-11-01

    The ability to control flow separation angles from compressor inlet guide vanes with a Coanda-type actuator is demonstrated using both wind tunnel experiments and finite element simulations. Vectoring angles up to 40 degrees from the uncontrolled baseline state were measured with helium schlieren visualization at transonic Mach numbers ranging from 0.1 to 0.6, and with airfoil chord Reynolds numbers ranging from 89,000 to 710,000. The magnitude of the vectoring angle is shown to depend upon the geometry of the trailing edge, and actuator slot size, and the momentum flux coefficient. Under certain conditions the blowing has no effect on the vectoring angle indicating that the Coanda effect is not present. DNS simulations with the finite element method investigated the effects of geometry changes and external flow. Continuous control of the vectoring angle is demonstrated, which has important implications for application to rotating machinery. The technique is shown to reduce the stall flow coefficient by 15 percent in an axial flow compressor.

  13. An iterative algorithm for objective wind field analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, C. Y.; Goodin, W. R.

    1976-01-01

    Three different algorithms for objective wind field analysis were tested on the same set of initial conditions: Dickerson-Sasaki's 'strong constraint' algorithm, a fixed-vorticity algorithm, and a newly proposed fixed-station-velocity algorithm. The three methods are compared with respect to the degree of minimization of wind divergence and the accuracy of wind data at a measured station. The first two techniques, though they reduce wind divergence, produce wind vectors substantially different from the observed values. The proposed iterative scheme is similar to Endlich's (1967) procedure for treating a macroscale wind field, and minimizes divergence while retaining the observed wind vectors.

  14. The effect of changing solar wind conditions on the inner magnetosphere and ring current: A model data comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patra, S.; Spencer, E.

    2015-08-01

    We investigate the rate at which the open drift paths in the near-Earth magnetosphere convert to closed paths during events with a sudden northward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz) after the peak of a geomagnetic storm. The geomagnetic storm on 17 August 2001 with an abrupt turning of the IMF Bz after the peak in SYM-H index is chosen in this study. The Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar-Wind Roe-Type Upwind Scheme model along with the Fok Ring Current (FRC) model available at Community Coordinated Modeling Center is used to model this event. The unique movie maps of the worldwide magnetometer stations are used to compare with the numerical results. The results indicate that ground magnetic disturbance remains asymmetric for some time after the start of the recovery phase even for a storm with abrupt northward turning of the IMF Bz. FRC simulation results suggest that the flow-out losses decrease under weakened magnetospheric convection but at a rate slower than the change in IMF Bz. These results indicate that the flow-out losses rapidly become smaller as the IMF Bz turns northward during the early recovery phase of a storm and the contribution of the tail current to the SYM-H index is important.

  15. Optimization of satellite coverage in observing cause and effect changes in the ionosphere, magnetosphere, and solar wind. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Loveless, M.J.

    1993-06-01

    Disturbances in the ionosphere sometimes cause adverse effects to communications systems, power grids, etc. on the earth. Currently, very little, if any, lead time is given to warn of an impending problem. If a forecast could be made of ionospheric occurrences, some lead time may be given to appropriate agencies and equipment may be saved. Most changes that occur in the ionosphere are a result of interaction of energy, currents, etc. between the magnetosphere and/or solar wind. Before a forecast can be made, however, improvement of ionospheric models currently in use need to be made. The models currently depict features in various regions of the ionosphere but not always where these features are actually observed. So an improvement to the model is needed to create an accurate baseline condition, or in other words an accurate depiction of the current ionosphere. Models could be improved by inputting real-time data from the ionosphere into the model. This data would come from satellites and/or ground-based stations.

  16. Amazonian malaria: Asymptomatic human reservoirs, diagnostic challenges, environmentally-driven changes in mosquito vector populations, and the mandate for sustainable control strategies

    PubMed Central

    da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Moreno, Marta; Conn, Jan E.; Gamboa, Dionicia; Abeles, Shira; Vinetz, Joseph M.; Ferreira, Marcelo U.

    2012-01-01

    Across the Americas and the Caribbean, nearly 561,000 slide-confirmed malaria infections were reported officially in 2008. The nine Amazonian countries accounted for 89% of these infections; Brazil and Peru alone contributed 56% and 7% of them, respectively. Local populations of the relatively neglected parasite P. vivax, which currently accounts for 77% of the regional malaria burden, are extremely diverse genetically and geographically structured. At a time when malaria elimination is placed on the public health agenda of several endemic countries, it remains unclear why malaria proved so difficult to control in areas of relatively low levels of transmission such as the Amazon Basin. We hypothesize that asymptomatic parasite carriage and massive environmental changes that affect vector abundance and behavior are major contributors to malaria transmission in epidemiologically diverse areas across the Amazon Basin. Here we review available data supporting this hypothesis and discuss their implications for current and future malaria intervention policies in the region. Given that locally generated scientific evidence is urgently required to support malaria control interventions in Amazonia, we briefly describe the aims of our current field-oriented malaria research in rural villages and gold-mining enclaves in Peru and a recently opened agricultural settlement in Brazil. PMID:22015425

  17. Amazonian malaria: asymptomatic human reservoirs, diagnostic challenges, environmentally driven changes in mosquito vector populations, and the mandate for sustainable control strategies.

    PubMed

    da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Moreno, Marta; Conn, Jan E; Gamboa, Dionicia; Abeles, Shira; Vinetz, Joseph M; Ferreira, Marcelo U

    2012-03-01

    Across the Americas and the Caribbean, nearly 561,000 slide-confirmed malaria infections were reported officially in 2008. The nine Amazonian countries accounted for 89% of these infections; Brazil and Peru alone contributed 56% and 7% of them, respectively. Local populations of the relatively neglected parasite Plasmodium vivax, which currently accounts for 77% of the regional malaria burden, are extremely diverse genetically and geographically structured. At a time when malaria elimination is placed on the public health agenda of several endemic countries, it remains unclear why malaria proved so difficult to control in areas of relatively low levels of transmission such as the Amazon Basin. We hypothesize that asymptomatic parasite carriage and massive environmental changes that affect vector abundance and behavior are major contributors to malaria transmission in epidemiologically diverse areas across the Amazon Basin. Here we review available data supporting this hypothesis and discuss their implications for current and future malaria intervention policies in the region. Given that locally generated scientific evidence is urgently required to support malaria control interventions in Amazonia, we briefly describe the aims of our current field-oriented malaria research in rural villages and gold-mining enclaves in Peru and a recently opened agricultural settlement in Brazil. PMID:22015425

  18. Dengue Vectors and their Spatial Distribution.

    PubMed

    Higa, Yukiko

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of dengue vectors, Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, is affected by climatic factors. In addition, since their life cycles are well adapted to the human environment, environmental changes resulting from human activity such as urbanization exert a great impact on vector distribution. The different responses of Ae. aegypti and Ae albopictus to various environments result in a difference in spatial distribution along north-south and urban-rural gradients, and between the indoors and outdoors. In the north-south gradient, climate associated with survival is an important factor in spatial distribution. In the urban-rural gradient, different distribution reflects a difference in adult niches and is modified by geographic and human factors. The direct response of the two species to the environment around houses is related to different spatial distribution indoors and outdoors. Dengue viruses circulate mainly between human and vector mosquitoes, and the vector presence is a limiting factor of transmission. Therefore, spatial distribution of dengue vectors is a significant concern in the epidemiology of the disease.Current technologies such as GIS, satellite imagery and statistical models allow researchers to predict the spatial distribution of vectors in the changing environment. Although it is difficult to confirm the actual effect of environmental and climate changes on vector abundance and vector-borne diseases, environmental changes caused by humans and human behavioral changes due to climate change can be expected to exert an impact on dengue vectors. Longitudinal monitoring of dengue vectors and viruses is therefore necessary. PMID:22500133

  19. Wind farm and solar park effects on plant-soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate.

    PubMed

    Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2014-06-01

    Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant-soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant-soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

  20. Wind farm and solar park effects on plant–soil carbon cycling: uncertain impacts of changes in ground-level microclimate

    PubMed Central

    Armstrong, Alona; Waldron, Susan; Whitaker, Jeanette; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2014-01-01

    Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land-based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground-level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground-level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land-based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. PMID:24132939

  1. Roles of surface wind, NDVI and snow cover in the recent changes in Asian dust storm occurrence frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jong-Jae; Kim, Cheol-Hee

    2012-11-01

    This paper describes the recent variations in dust outbreak during the period from 1996 to 2007 over the Asian dust source regions. The Asian dust source regions were divided into four sub-regions; S1, Taklamakan; S2, Gobi; S3, Inner Mongolia-Manchuria; and S4, Loess, and the WMO SYNOP observation and satellite data were employed to analyze the features of recently changed dust outbreak frequencies (DOFs). There was no particular variation in region S1, but the recent spatiotemporal variations in DOFs over S2-S4 were well characterized by a severe and widespread increase in 2001-2002, and significant decreasing in 2003-2004 over the most source regions, with a steadily increasing trend again during 2005-2007. Seasonal features showed that the highest DOFs occurred in March-April before 2002, but was delayed by a month toward April-May during the next five years because of the shift in the month of highest strong wind-speed frequencies (SWFs). A secondary peak of DOF was also found, occurring in October-November since the year 2000. Over all the source regions, the primary controlling factor for explaining the spatiotemporal DOF patterns was the SWF, with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.66-0.76. Other secondary controlling factors varied from region to region. For example, the DOFs observed in region S2-S3 showed relatively greater sensitivity to the snow-cover fraction, and region S4 showed a better correlation with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) than the other regions. Other recent significant changes in DOFs over the Asian dust source regions and their causes are also discussed in this study.

  2. Downscaling and predictability of historical monthly mean surface winds over a region of complex terrain and marine influence: Western Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, C.; van der Kamp, D.; Monahan, A. H.

    2010-12-01

    Surface wind is a vector quantity exhibiting high spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, it presents a challenge for methods of statistical downscaling, which are used to establish a relationship between the large-scale atmospheric flow (predictors) and local climate variables (predictands). Simple regression-based techniques, for example, used with success for smoother predictands such as temperature, may not be as effective when applied to wind. In this work, the predictability of surface wind magnitude and direction at 28 stations in Western Canada over the period 1979-2006 was assessed using NCEP-2 reanalysis fields to derive large-scale predictors. Specifically, a combined principal components (PC) analysis was employed with the wind components at 500 hPa and mean sea level pressure as input fields, and the first 5 PCs used as predictors. The predictands were either wind speed or vector wind components oriented along directions ranging from 0 to 170 degrees at 10 degree intervals. Multiple linear regression was used for the downscaling, and its robustness assessed via cross-validation with an associated Pearson R2 value. This approach might be expected to display relatively high predictability, since it is comprised almost entirely of observations. However, our findings show that often this is not the case. Overall, wind speed was poorly predicted (R2<0.5), with the exception of a handful of stations in autumn and winter. By contrast, wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds at nearly all stations year-round, with the highest R2 values in autumn (SON) and lowest values in summer (JJA). The predictability of wind components was found to depend upon the topographic character of the region surrounding a given station. In mountainous regions, e.g., predictive skill was strongly related to the orientation of the components, with the best predicted components oriented along topographically significant directions such as constricted valleys and ocean channels. Predictability at stations in regions of relatively flat terrain was less dependent on wind direction. The latter stations also displayed region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the most skillfully predicted wind component. In summary, at most stations in Western Canada, monthly mean vector wind components were more reliably predicted than wind speeds. This result complicates the assessment of local changes in mean wind speed, extremes, and wind energy under climate change that is often a desired outcome of the downscaling exercise using modelled fields as predictors. However, useful projections might still be obtained at stations where a single wind direction is dominant.

  3. Wind speed forecasting for wind energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong

    With more wind energy being integrated into our grid systems, forecasting wind energy has become a necessity for all market participants. Recognizing the market demands, a physical approach to site-specific hub-height wind speed forecasting system has been developed. This system is driven by the outputs from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. A simple interpolation approach benchmarks the forecasting accuracy inherited from GEM. Local, site specific winds are affected on a local scale by a variety of factors including representation of the land surface and local boundary-layer process over heterogeneous terrain which have been a continuing challenge in NWP models like GEM with typical horizontal resolution of order 15-km. In order to resolve these small scale effects, a wind energy industry standard model, WAsP, is coupled with GEM to improve the forecast. Coupling the WAsP model with GEM improves the overall forecasts, but remains unsatisfactory for forecasting winds with abrupt surface condition changes. Subsequently in this study, a new coupler that uses a 2-D RANS model of boundary-layer flow over surface condition changes with improved physics has been developed to further improve the forecasts when winds coming from a water surface to land experience abrupt changes in surface conditions. It has been demonstrated that using vertically averaged wind speeds to represent geostrophic winds for input into the micro-scale models could reduce forecast errors. The hub-height wind speed forecasts could be further improved using a linear MOS approach. The forecasting system has been evaluated, using a wind energy standard evaluation matrix, against data from an 80-m mast located near the north shore of Lake Erie. Coupling with GEM-LAM and a power conversion model using a theoretical power curve have also been investigated. For hub-height wind speeds GEM appears to perform better with a 15-Ian grid than the high resolution GEM-2.5Ian version at the validation site.

  4. Solar Wind Magnetic Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, E. J.

    1995-01-01

    The magnetic fields originate as coronal fields that are converted into space by the supersonic, infinitely conducting, solar wind. On average, the sun's rotation causes the field to wind up and form an Archimedes Spiral. However, the field direction changes almost continuously on a variety of scales and the irregular nature of these changes is often interpreted as evidence that the solar wind flow is turbulent.

  5. Effects of sea state on offshore wind resourcing in Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collier, Cristina

    Offshore resource assessment relies on estimating wind speeds at turbine hub height using observations typically made at substantially lower height. The methods used to adjust from observed wind speeds to hub height can impact resource estimation. The importance of directional sea state is examined, both as seasonal averages and as a function of the diurnal cycle. A General Electric 3.6 MW offshore turbine is used as a model for a power production. Including sea state increases or decreases seasonally averaged power production by roughly 1%, which is found to be an economically significant change. These changes occur because the sea state modifies the wind shear (vector wind difference between the buoy height and the moving surface) and therefore the extrapolation from the observation to hub height is affected. These seemingly small differences in capacity can alter profits by millions of dollars depending upon the size of the farm and fluctuations in price per kWh throughout the year. A 2% change in capacity factor can lead to a 10 million dollar difference from total kWh produced from a wind farm of 100 3.6MW turbines. These economic impacts can be a deciding factor in determining whether a resource is viable for development. Modification of power output due to sea states are shown for seasonal and diurnal time scales. Three regions are examined herein: West Florida, East Florida, and Nantucket Sound. The average capacity after sea state is included suggests areas around Florida could provide substantial amounts of wind power throughout three-fourths of the calendar year. At certain times of day winter average produced capacity factors in West Florida can be up to 45% more than in summer when sea state is included. Nantucket Sound capacity factors are calculated for comparison to a region near a planned United States offshore wind farm. This study provides evidence to suggest including sea state in offshore wind resource assessment causes economically significant differences for offshore wind power siting.

  6. ELECTRONIC BIVANE WIND DIRECTION INDICATOR

    DOEpatents

    Moses, H.

    1961-05-01

    An apparatus is described for determining and recording three dimensional wind vectors. The apparatus comprises a rotatably mounted azimuthal wind component sensing head and an elevational wind component sensing head mounted to the azimuthal head and adapted to rotate therewith in the azimuthal plane and independently in the elevational plane. A heat source and thermocouples disposed thereabout are mounted within each of the sensing heads, the thermocouples providing electrical signals responsive to the temperature differential created by the passage of air through the sensing tuhes. The thermocouple signals are applied to drive mechanisms which position the sensing heads to a null wind position. Recording means are provided responsive to positional data from the drive mechanisms which are a measurement of the three dimensional wind vectors.

  7. An oilspill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuels, W.B.; Huang, N.E.; Amstutz, D.E.

    1982-01-01

    The oilspill trajectory movement algorithm consists of a vector sum of the surface drift component due to wind and the surface current component. In the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill trajectory analysis model, the surface drift component is assumed to be 3.5% of the wind speed and is rotated 20 degrees clockwise to account for Coriolis effects in the Northern Hemisphere. Field and laboratory data suggest, however, that the deflection angle of the surface drift current can be highly variable. An empirical formula, based on field observations and theoretical arguments relating wind speed to deflection angle, was used to calculate a new deflection angle at each time step in the model. Comparisons of oilspill contact probabilities to coastal areas calculated for constant and variable deflection angles showed that the model is insensitive to this changing angle at low wind speeds. At high wind speeds, some statistically significant differences in contact probabilities did appear. ?? 1982.

  8. DSCOVR High Time Resolution Solar Wind Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Szabo, Adam

    2012-01-01

    The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), previously known as Triana, spacecraft is expected to be launched in late 2014. It will carry a fluxgate magnetometer, Faraday Cup solar wind detector and a top-hat electron electrostatic analyzer. The Faraday Cup will provide an unprecedented 10 vectors/sec time resolution measurement of the solar wind proton and alpha reduced distribution functions. Coupled with the 40 vector/sec vector magnetometer measurements, the identification of specific wave modes in the solar wind will be possible for the first time. The science objectives and data products of the mission will be discussed.

  9. DSCOVR High Time Resolution Solar Wind Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szabo, A.

    2012-12-01

    The Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), previously known as Triana, spacecraft is expected to be launched in late 2014. It will carry a fluxgate magnetometer, Faraday Cup solar wind detector and a top-hat electron electrostatic analyzer. The Faraday Cup will provide an unprecedented 10 vectors/sec time resolution measurement of the solar wind proton and alpha reduced distribution functions. Coupled with the 40 vector/sec vector magnetometer measurements, the identification of specific wave modes in the solar wind will be possible for the first time. The science objectives and data products of the mission will be discussed.

  10. Changes in water and wind resources across the central and northeastern U.S. 2060-2010 in 24 km WRF downscale climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkel, S. D.; Maasch, K. A.; Oglesby, R. J.; Fulginiti, L.; Trindade, F.; Hays, C.

    2012-12-01

    GCM ensembles for the IPCC AR4 indicate that by 2060 water and wind resources will change appreciably over the central and northeastern U.S. In order to investigate these possible changes on a scale relevant for agriculture and offshore wind-power planners, we produced 24 km downscale simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our simulations span the years 2006-2010 and 2056-2060 with boundary conditions supplied by CCSM4 (IPCC emissions scenario RCP 8.5). By calculating the difference between the simulated time periods we find: 1) ~10% decrease in total annual precipitation across the southern half of the Ogallala aquifer in the central U.S., and ~10% increase across the northeastern states; and 2) Minimal change in annual-average 10-meter wind strength across the study areas, but with significant changes seasonal values. Interrogation of the simulation results is ongoing, and a complete synthesis will be presented at the annual meeting.

  11. The Effect of Lower Surface Spoilers on the Transonic Trim Change of a Wind-Tunnel Model of a Fighter Airplane Having a Modified Delta Wing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Robert C.

    1959-01-01

    In an attempt to find an aerodynamic means of counteracting the transonic trim change of a fighter airplane, lower surface spoilers were tested on a 0.055-scale wind-tunnel model. The Mach number range of the tests was 0.8 to 1.2 at Reynolds numbers of approximately 4 million. Although the spoilers produced a moderate decrease in the trim change at low altitudes, they also produced a large increase in drag. Pressure-distribution tests with external fuel tanks showed large pressure changes on the lower surface of the wing due to the tanks.

  12. Winds of Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robelen, Erik W.

    2005-01-01

    Five weeks after Katrina landed in Louisiana, Bonnabel and 78 other Jefferson Parish schools were welcoming students back--and far sooner than many had expected. The worst damage in Louisiana from Hurricane Katrina did not come to Jefferson Parish. That distinction was reserved for portions of New Orleans, as well as St. Bernard Parish, where

  13. Winds of Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robelen, Erik W.

    2005-01-01

    Five weeks after Katrina landed in Louisiana, Bonnabel and 78 other Jefferson Parish schools were welcoming students back--and far sooner than many had expected. The worst damage in Louisiana from Hurricane Katrina did not come to Jefferson Parish. That distinction was reserved for portions of New Orleans, as well as St. Bernard Parish, where…

  14. Construction of vertical wind profile from satellite-derived winds for objective analysis of wind field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahajan, P. N.; Talwalkar, D. R.; Nair, S.; Rajamani, S.

    1992-06-01

    During summer Monex-79, a variety of observing systems viz. research ships, research aircrafts, constant pressure balloons and geostationary satellite etc. were deployed, besides the regular conventional observations. The purpose of these additional systems was to make the best possible data for the studies on various aspects of monsoon circulation. The present study is aimed at the construction of vertical wind profile using cloud motion vectors obtained from GOES (I-O) satellite and to examine whether the constructed wind profiles improves the representation of the monsoon system, flow pattern etc. in the objective analysis. For this purpose, climatological normals of the wind field are considered as the initial guess and the objective analyses of the wind field are made with, first using only data from conventional observations over land areas, subsequently including the constructed winds from cloud motion vectors. These analyses are then compared with the standard analyses of wind field obtained from Quick Look Atlas by T. N. Krishnamurti et al. (1979). It is inferred that satellite estimated mean wind profiles show good agreement with the mean wind profiles of the research ships with RMS errors less than 5 mps below 500 hPa and less than 8 mps above 500 hPa. It is further inferred that the inclusion of constructed winds shows a positive impact on the objective analysis and improvement is seen to be more marked in the data-sparse region of the Arabian sea. Analyses which include the constructed winds show better agreement with the standard analysis, than the analyses obtained using only conventional winds. Thus, results of our study suggest that the wind profiles constructed using cloud motion vectors are of potential use in objective analysis to depict the major circulation features over the Indian region.

  15. Wind-driven changes of surface current, temperature, and chlorophyll observed by satellites north of New Guinea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radenac, Marie-Hélène; Léger, Fabien; Messié, Monique; Dutrieux, Pierre; Menkes, Christophe; Eldin, Gérard

    2016-04-01

    Satellite observations of wind, sea level and derived currents, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll are used to expand our understanding of the physical and biological variability of the ocean surface north of New Guinea. Based on scarce cruise and mooring data, previous studies differentiated a trade wind situation (austral winter) when the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) flows northwestward and a northwest monsoon situation (austral summer) when a coastal upwelling develops and the NGCC reverses. This circulation pattern is confirmed by satellite observations, except in Vitiaz Strait where the surface northwestward flow persists. We find that intraseasonal and seasonal time scale variations explain most of the variance north of New Guinea. SST and chlorophyll variabilities are mainly driven by two processes: penetration of Solomon Sea waters and coastal upwelling. In the trade wind situation, the NGCC transports cold Solomon Sea waters through Vitiaz Strait in a narrow vein hugging the coast. Coastal upwelling is generated in westerly wind situations (westerly wind event, northwest monsoon). Highly productive coastal waters are advected toward the equator and, during some westerly wind events, toward the eastern part of the warm pool. During El Niño, coastal upwelling events and northward penetration of Solomon Sea waters combine to influence SST and chlorophyll anomalies.

  16. Correlation of prefrontal cortical activation with changing vehicle speeds in actual driving: a vector-based functional near-infrared spectroscopy study

    PubMed Central

    Yoshino, Kayoko; Oka, Noriyuki; Yamamoto, Kouji; Takahashi, Hideki; Kato, Toshinori

    2013-01-01

    Traffic accidents occur more frequently during deceleration than during acceleration. However, little is known about the relationship between brain activation and vehicle acceleration because it has been difficult to measure the brain activation of drivers while they drive. In this study, we measured brain activation during actual driving using vector-based functional near-infrared spectroscopy. Subjects decelerated from 100 to 50 km/h (speed reduction task) and accelerated from 50 to 100 km/h (speed increase task) while driving on an expressway, in the daytime and at night. We examined correlations between average vehicle acceleration in each task and five hemodynamic indices: changes in oxygenated hemoglobin (ΔoxyHb), deoxygenated hemoglobin (ΔdeoxyHb), cerebral blood volume (ΔCBV), and cerebral oxygen exchange (ΔCOE); and the phase angle k (degrees) derived from the other hemoglobin (Hb) indices. ΔoxyHb and ΔCBV reflect changes in cerebral blood flow, whereas ΔdeoxyHb, ΔCOE, and k are related to variations in cerebral oxygen metabolism. Most of the resulting correlations with specific brain sites, for all the indices, appeared during deceleration rather than during acceleration. Faster deceleration resulted in greater increases in ΔdeoxyHb, ΔCOE, and k in the prefrontal cortex (r < −0.5, p < 0.01), in particular, in the frontal eye field, and at night, it also resulted in greater decreases in ΔoxyHb and ΔCBV in the prefrontal cortex and in the parietal lobe (r > 0.4, p < 0.01), suggesting oxygen metabolism associated with transient ischemic changes. Our results suggest that vehicle deceleration requires more brain activation, focused in the prefrontal cortex, than does acceleration. From the standpoint of the indices used, we found that simultaneous analysis of multiple hemodynamic indices was able to detect not only the blood flow components of hemodynamic responses, but also more localized frontal lobe activation involving oxygen metabolism. PMID:24399953

  17. Relating high-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density-Profile changes to Solar-Wind Parameters During Large Magnetic Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benson, R. F.; Fainberg, J.; Osherovich, V.; Truhlik, V.; Wang, Y.; Bilitza, D.; Lam, H.

    2012-12-01

    Ten large magnetic storms (Dst < -100 nT) where high-latitude topside electron-density profiles Ne(h) could be obtained from Alouette/ISIS topside-sounder data, and where solar-wind data were available, were investigated. The former were obtained from the NASA Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) and the latter were obtained from the NASA OMNIWeb database. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during the storms in all cases. In some cases large topside Ne(h) gradients were observed between adjacent ionograms (separated by ~ ½ minute) and even within a single ionogram (profiles separated by < 10 s). The changes in the winter profiles have a clear relationship with the solar-wind velocity Vsw in that the topside Ne(h) increases with increasing Vsw during nighttime and decreases with increasing Vsw during daytime.

  18. Improved mycobacterial tetracycline inducible vectors.

    PubMed

    Williams, Kerstin J; Joyce, Graham; Robertson, Brian D

    2010-09-01

    We have previously reported on the development and assessment of the tetracycline inducible vector pMIND (Blokpoel et al., 2005). Here we report the development of improved pMIND vectors that exhibit both reduced basal transcription in the absence of inducer and increased fold induction in the presence of inducer. An amino acid change in the repressor protein, TetR(Z), produced a 6-fold reduction in basal transcription compared to the original pMIND-Lx and a 100-fold induction of LuxAB in the presence of tetracycline. An integration version of the improved vector (pMEND-Lx) was constructed which resulted in a 9-fold reduction in basal transcription compared to pMIND-Lx and a 17-fold induction of LuxAB in the presence of tetracycline. Further improvements were obtained by cloning the pMEND TetRO promoter into an alternative vector backbone. The resulting vector, pKW08-Lx, exhibited a 70-fold reduction in background compared to pMIND-Lx and a 230-fold induction of LuxAB in the presence of tetracycline. An integration version of pKW08-Lx was constructed and the basal transcription for this vector was zero; an 11-fold induction of LuxAB was observed in the presence of tetracycline. The construction of these improved mycobacterial vectors will prove extremely useful for genetic studies. PMID:20434484

  19. Chikungunya Virus–Vector Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Lark L.; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Weaver, Scott C.

    2014-01-01

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes chikungunya fever, a severe, debilitating disease that often produces chronic arthralgia. Since 2004, CHIKV has emerged in Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, causing millions of human infections. Central to understanding CHIKV emergence is knowledge of the natural ecology of transmission and vector infection dynamics. This review presents current understanding of CHIKV infection dynamics in mosquito vectors and its relationship to human disease emergence. The following topics are reviewed: CHIKV infection and vector life history traits including transmission cycles, genetic origins, distribution, emergence and spread, dispersal, vector competence, vector immunity and microbial interactions, and co-infection by CHIKV and other arboviruses. The genetics of vector susceptibility and host range changes, population heterogeneity and selection for the fittest viral genomes, dual host cycling and its impact on CHIKV adaptation, viral bottlenecks and intrahost diversity, and adaptive constraints on CHIKV evolution are also discussed. The potential for CHIKV re-emergence and expansion into new areas and prospects for prevention via vector control are also briefly reviewed. PMID:25421891

  20. Chikungunya virus-vector interactions.

    PubMed

    Coffey, Lark L; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Weaver, Scott C

    2014-11-01

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes chikungunya fever, a severe, debilitating disease that often produces chronic arthralgia. Since 2004, CHIKV has emerged in Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, causing millions of human infections. Central to understanding CHIKV emergence is knowledge of the natural ecology of transmission and vector infection dynamics. This review presents current understanding of CHIKV infection dynamics in mosquito vectors and its relationship to human disease emergence. The following topics are reviewed: CHIKV infection and vector life history traits including transmission cycles, genetic origins, distribution, emergence and spread, dispersal, vector competence, vector immunity and microbial interactions, and co-infection by CHIKV and other arboviruses. The genetics of vector susceptibility and host range changes, population heterogeneity and selection for the fittest viral genomes, dual host cycling and its impact on CHIKV adaptation, viral bottlenecks and intrahost diversity, and adaptive constraints on CHIKV evolution are also discussed. The potential for CHIKV re-emergence and expansion into new areas and prospects for prevention via vector control are also briefly reviewed. PMID:25421891

  1. The interacting winds of Eta Carinae: Observed forbidden line changes and the Forbidden Blue(-Shifted) Crab

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gull, Theodore R.; Madura, Thomas; Corcoran, Michael F.; Teodoro, Mairan; Richardson, Noel; Hamaguchi, Kenji; Groh, Jose H.; Hillier, Desmond John; Damineli, Augusto; Weigelt, Gerd

    2015-01-01

    The massive binary, Eta Carinae (EC), produces such massive winds that strong forbidden line emission of singly- and doubly-ionized iron traces wind-wind interactions from the current cycle plus fossil interactions from one, two and three 5.54-year cycles ago.With an eccentricity of >0.9, the >90 solar mass primary (EC-A) and >30 solar mass secondary (EC-B) approach to within 1.5 AU during periastron and recede to nearly 30 AU across apastron. The wind-wind structures move outward driven by the 420 km/s primary wind interacting with the ~3000 km/s secondary wind yielding partially-accelerated compressed primary wind shells that are excited by mid-UV from EC-A and in limited lines of sight, FUV from EC-B.These structures are spectroscopically and spatially resolved by HST's Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph. At critical binary phases, we have mapped the central 2'x2' region in the light of [Fe III] and [Fe II] with spatial resolution of 0.12' and velocity resolution of 40 km/s.1) The bulk of forbidden emission originates from the large cavity northwest of EC and is due to ionization of massive ejecta from the 1840s and 1890s eruptions. The brightest clumps are the Weigelt Blobs C and D, but there are additionally multiple, fainter emission clumps. Weigelt B appears to have faded.2) Three concentric, red-shifted [FeII] arcs expand at ~470 km/s excited by mid-UV of EC-A.3) The structure of primarily blue-shifted [Fe III] emission resembles a Maryland Blue Crab. The claws appear at the early stages of the high-excitation recovery from the periastron passage, expand at radial velocities exceeding the primary wind terminal velocity, 420 km/s and fade as the binary system approaches periastron with the primary wind enveloping the FUV radiation from EC-B.4) All [Fe III] emission faded by late June 2014 and disappeared by August 2, 2014, the beginning of periastron passage.Comparisons to HST/STIS observations between 1998 to 2004.3 indicate long-term fading of [Fe II]. Likewise, Na D emission has faded. 3D hydro/radiative models suggest a small decrease (< factor of 2) in primary mass loss rate to be the cause.

  2. Wind tunnel pressure distribution tests on a series of biplane wing models Part II : effects of changes in decalage, dihedral, sweepback and overhang

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knight, Montgomery; Noyes, Richard W

    1929-01-01

    This preliminary report furnishes information on the changes in the forces on each wing of a biplane cellule when the decalage, dihedral, sweepback and overhang are separately varied. The data were obtained from pressure distribution tests made in the Atmospheric Wind Tunnel of the Langley Memorial Aeronautical Laboratory. Since each test was carried up to 90 degree angle of attack, the results may be used in the study of stalled flight and of spinning and in the structural design of biplane wings.

  3. Operational cloud-motion winds from Meteosat infrared images

    SciTech Connect

    Schmetz, J.; Holmlund, K.; Mason, B.; Gaertner, V.; Koch, A.; Van De Berg, L. ); Hoffman, J. ); Strauss, B. )

    1993-07-01

    The displacements of clouds in successive satellite images reflects the atmospheric circulation at various scales. The main application of the satellite-derived cloud-motion vectors is their use as winds in the data analysis for numerical weather prediction. At low latitudes in particular they constitute an indispensible data source for numerical weather prediction. This paper describes the operational method of deriving cloud-motion winds (CMW) from the IR images (10.5-12.5 [mu]m) of the European geostationary Meteosat satellites. The method is automatic, that is, the cloud tracking uses cross correlation and the height assignment is based on satellite observed brightness temperature and a forecast temperature profile. Semitransparent clouds undergo a height correction based on radiative forward calculations and simultaneous radiance observations in both the IR and water vapor (5.7-7.1 [mu]m) channel. Cloud-motion winds are subject to various quality checks that include manual quality controls as the last step. Typically about 3000 wind vectors are produced per day over four production cycles. This paper documents algorithm changes and improvements made to the operational CMWs over the last five years. The improvements are shown by long-term comparisons with both collocated radiosondes and the first guess of the forecast model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. In particular, the height assignment of a wind vector and radiance filtering techniques preceding the cloud tracking have ameliorated the errors in Meteosat winds. The slow speed bias of high-level CMWs (<400 hPa) in comparison to radiosonde winds has been reduced from about 4 to 1.3 m s[sup [minus]1] for a mean wind speed of 24 m s[sup [minus]1]. Correspondingly, the rms vector error of Meteosat high-level CMWs decreased from about 7.8 to 5 m s[sup [minus]1]. Medium-and low-level CMWs were also significantly improved. 56 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Modeling the role of environmental variables on the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The impact of weather and climate on malaria transmission has attracted considerable attention in recent years, yet uncertainties around future disease trends under climate change remain. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for addressing such questions and understanding the implications for interventions and eradication strategies, but these require realistic modeling of the vector population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Methods Published and unpublished field and experimental data are used to develop new formulations for modeling the relationships between key aspects of vector ecology and environmental variables. These relationships are integrated within a validated deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to provide a valuable tool for understanding vector response to biotic and abiotic variables. Results A novel, parsimonious framework for assessing the effects of rainfall, cloudiness, wind speed, desiccation, temperature, relative humidity and density-dependence on vector abundance is developed, allowing ease of construction, analysis, and integration into malaria transmission models. Model validation shows good agreement with longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, suggesting that recent malaria reductions in certain areas of Africa could be due to changing environmental conditions affecting vector populations. Conclusions Mathematical models provide a powerful, explanatory means of understanding the role of environmental variables on mosquito populations and hence for predicting future malaria transmission under global change. The framework developed provides a valuable advance in this respect, but also highlights key research gaps that need to be resolved if we are to better understand future malaria risk in vulnerable communities. PMID:22877154

  5. An assessment of thermal, wind, and planetary wave changes in the middle and lower atmosphere due to 11-year UV flux variations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callis, L. B.; Alpert, J. C.; Geller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Hines (1974) speculated that solar-induced modifications of the middle and upper atmosphere may alter the transmissivity of the stratosphere to upwardly propagating atmospheric waves. It was suggested that subsequent constructive or destructive interference may result in a change of phase or amplitude of these waves in the troposphere leading to weather or climate changes. The present investigation has the objective to bring together both radiative transfer and planetary wave studies in an effort to assess specifically whether Hines mechanism can be initiated by the solar ultraviolet flux variability assumed to be associated with the 11-year solar cycle. The obtained results suggest that the presently studied mechanism, which links solar-induced zonal wind changes in the stratosphere and mesosphere to planetary wave changes in the troposphere, is not strong enough to cause substantive changes in the troposphere.

  6. Rotations with Rodrigues' Vector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pina, E.

    2011-01-01

    The rotational dynamics was studied from the point of view of Rodrigues' vector. This vector is defined here by its connection with other forms of parametrization of the rotation matrix. The rotation matrix was expressed in terms of this vector. The angular velocity was computed using the components of Rodrigues' vector as coordinates. It appears

  7. Rotations with Rodrigues' Vector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pina, E.

    2011-01-01

    The rotational dynamics was studied from the point of view of Rodrigues' vector. This vector is defined here by its connection with other forms of parametrization of the rotation matrix. The rotation matrix was expressed in terms of this vector. The angular velocity was computed using the components of Rodrigues' vector as coordinates. It appears…

  8. Vector independent transmission of the vector-borne bluetongue virus.

    PubMed

    van der Sluijs, Mirjam Tineke Willemijn; de Smit, Abraham J; Moormann, Rob J M

    2016-02-01

    Bluetongue is an economically important disease of ruminants. The causative agent, Bluetongue virus (BTV), is mainly transmitted by insect vectors. This review focuses on vector-free BTV transmission, and its epizootic and economic consequences. Vector-free transmission can either be vertical, from dam to fetus, or horizontal via direct contract. For several BTV-serotypes, vertical (transplacental) transmission has been described, resulting in severe congenital malformations. Transplacental transmission had been mainly associated with live vaccine strains. Yet, the European BTV-8 strain demonstrated a high incidence of transplacental transmission in natural circumstances. The relevance of transplacental transmission for the epizootiology is considered limited, especially in enzootic areas. However, transplacental transmission can have a substantial economic impact due to the loss of progeny. Inactivated vaccines have demonstrated to prevent transplacental transmission. Vector-free horizontal transmission has also been demonstrated. Since direct horizontal transmission requires close contact of animals, it is considered only relevant for within-farm spreading of BTV. The genetic determinants which enable vector-free transmission are present in virus strains circulating in the field. More research into the genetic changes which enable vector-free transmission is essential to better evaluate the risks associated with outbreaks of new BTV serotypes and to design more appropriate control measures. PMID:24645633

  9. Wind Simulation

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2008-12-31

    The Software consists of a spreadsheet written in Microsoft Excel that provides an hourly simulation of a wind energy system, which includes a calculation of wind turbine output as a power-curve fit of wind speed.

  10. Mapping the Sun's Atmosphere Into Interplanetary Space: How Recent Changes in the Solar Dynamo are Affecting the Solar Wind Around Us (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luhmann, J. G.; Lee, C. O.; Hoeksema, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    The photospheric magnetic field provides the key boundary conditions for the interplanetary medium, including the solar wind plasma and the interplanetary magnetic field. Thus any changes in the solar interior that affect either the emergence, dispersion, and decay of active region magnetic fields, or the evolution of the quiet Sun fields, can have locally measurable effects. Each solar cycle for which we have sufficient solar and in-situ observations has followed a similar pattern, but in the most recent cycle the solar dynamo has produced a generally weaker photospheric field together with a spatial distribution of photospheric flux that differs from the previous two. The result is distinctive interplanetary conditions with solar wind streams and magnetic fields significantly different from earlier space age cycles, and a better appreciation for variations the dynamo has likely caused (and will cause) in our 'space weather'.

  11. Changes in sea-level pressure over South Korea associated with high-speed solar wind events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Il-Hyun; Kwak, Young-Sil; Marubashi, Katsuhide; Kim, Yeon-Han; Park, Young-Deuk; Chang, Heon-Young

    2012-09-01

    We explore a possibility that the daily sea-level pressure (SLP) over South Korea responds to the high-speed solar wind event. This is of interest in two aspects: first, if there is a statistical association this can be another piece of evidence showing that various meteorological observables indeed respond to variations in the interplanetary environment. Second, this can be a very crucial observational constraint since most models proposed so far are expected to preferentially work in higher latitude regions than the low latitude region studied here. We have examined daily solar wind speed V, daily SLP difference ΔSLP, and daily log(BV2) using the superposed epoch analysis in which the key date is set such that the daily solar wind speed exceeds 800 km s-1. We find that the daily ΔSLP averaged out of 12 events reaches its peak at day +1 and gradually decreases back to its normal level. The amount of positive deviation of ΔSLP is +2.5 hPa. The duration of deviation is a few days. We also find that ΔSLP is well correlated with both the speed of solar wind and log(BV2). The obtained linear correlation coefficients and chance probabilities with one-day lag for two cases are r ≃ 0.81 with P > 99.9%, and r ≃ 0.84 with P > 99.9%, respectively. We conclude by briefly discussing future direction to pursue.

  12. Wind-Tunnel Investigations on a Changed Mustang Profile with Nose Flap Force and Pressure-Distribution Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krueger, W.

    1947-01-01

    Measurements are described which were taken in the large wind tunnel of the AVA on a rectangular wing "Mustang 2" with nose flap of a chord of 10 percent. Besides force measurements the results of pressure-distribution measurements are given and compared with those on the same profile "without" nose flap.

  13. Patchiness in wind erosion-deposition patterns in response to a recent state change reversal in the Chihuahuan Desert

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Shifts from shrub-dominated states to grasslands are believed to be irreversible as a result of positive feedbacks between woody plants and soil properties. In the Chihuahuan Desert, mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) expansion into black grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) grasslands is maintained by wind redis...

  14. Distribution of AAV8 particles in cell lysates and culture media changes with time and is dependent on the recombinant vector

    PubMed Central

    Piras, Bryan A; Drury, Jason E; Morton, Christopher L; Spence, Yunyu; Lockey, Timothy D; Nathwani, Amit C; Davidoff, Andrew M; Meagher, Michael M

    2016-01-01

    With clinical trials ongoing, efficient clinical production of adeno-associated virus (AAV) to treat large numbers of patients remains a challenge. We compared distribution of AAV8 packaged with Factor VIII (FVIII) in cell culture media and lysates on days 3, 5, 6, and 7 post-transfection and found increasing viral production through day 6, with the proportion of viral particles in the media increasing from 76% at day 3 to 94% by day 7. Compared to FVIII, AAV8 packaged with Factor IX and Protective Protein/Cathepsin A vectors demonstrated a greater shift from lysate towards media from day 3 to 6, implying that particle distribution is dependent on recombinant vector. Larger-scale productions showed that the ratio of full-to-empty AAV particles is similar in media and lysate, and that AAV harvested on day 6 post-transfection provides equivalent function in mice compared to AAV harvested on day 3. This demonstrates that AAV8 production can be optimized by prolonging the duration of culture post-transfection, and simplified by allowing harvest of media only, with disposal of cells that contain 10% or less of total vector yield. Additionally, the difference in particle distribution with different expression cassettes implies a recombinant vector-dependent processing mechanism which should be taken into account during process development. PMID:27069949

  15. Emerging Vector-Borne Diseases – Incidence through Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Savić, Sara; Vidić, Branka; Grgić, Zivoslav; Potkonjak, Aleksandar; Spasojevic, Ljubica

    2014-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases use to be a major public health concern only in tropical and subtropical areas, but today they are an emerging threat for the continental and developed countries also. Nowadays, in intercontinental countries, there is a struggle with emerging diseases, which have found their way to appear through vectors. Vector-borne zoonotic diseases occur when vectors, animal hosts, climate conditions, pathogens, and susceptible human population exist at the same time, at the same place. Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in vector-borne infectious diseases and disease outbreaks. It could affect the range and population of pathogens, host and vectors, transmission season, etc. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required. Canine vector-borne diseases represent a complex group of diseases including anaplasmosis, babesiosis, bartonellosis, borreliosis, dirofilariosis, ehrlichiosis, and leishmaniosis. Some of these diseases cause serious clinical symptoms in dogs and some of them have a zoonotic potential with an effect to public health. It is expected from veterinarians in coordination with medical doctors to play a fundamental role at primarily prevention and then treatment of vector-borne diseases in dogs. The One Health concept has to be integrated into the struggle against emerging diseases. During a 4-year period, from 2009 to 2013, a total number of 551 dog samples were analyzed for vector-borne diseases (borreliosis, babesiosis, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis, dirofilariosis, and leishmaniasis) in routine laboratory work. The analysis was done by serological tests – ELISA for borreliosis, dirofilariosis, and leishmaniasis, modified Knott test for dirofilariosis, and blood smear for babesiosis, ehrlichiosis, and anaplasmosis. This number of samples represented 75% of total number of samples that were sent for analysis for different diseases in dogs. Annually, on average more then half of the samples brought to the laboratory to analysis for different infectious diseases are analyzed for vector-borne diseases. In the region of Vojvodina (northern part of Serbia), the following vector-borne infectious diseases have been found in dogs so far borreliosis, babesiosis, dirofilariosis, leishmaniasis, and anaplasmosis. PMID:25520951

  16. Wind direction variability in Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nilsson, Erik; Lothon, Marie; Lohou, Fabienne; Mahrt, Larry

    2014-05-01

    Understanding wind direction (WD) variability better is important for several reasons. Air pollution models need information about how variable wind direction is in different conditions (Davies and Thomson 1999). Accurate predictions of dispersion are important for human health and safety and allow for adaptation planning (Nagle et al. 2011). Other applications include horizontal diffusion, efficiency and fatigue of wind machines and air-sea interaction (Mahrt 2011). Most studies of wind direction variability have focused on nocturnal conditions because of greater variability in light winds. Modelling WD variability in transition periods when both mean wind speed and variance of the wind components are in a state of change can, however, also be very challenging and has not been the focus of earlier studies. The evening transitioning to the nocturnal boundary layer can play an important role in the diffusion process of pollutants and scalars emitted at surface and transported within the atmosphere. The Boundary Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence (BLLAST) field campaign that took place in southern France in June and July 2011 focused on the decaying turbulence of the late afternoon boundary layer and related issues (Lothon et al. 2012). We analyse field measurements from BLLAST to investigate WD variability in the evening transition period. Standard deviations of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in the lowest 60 m of the boundary layer have been examined for dependence on mean wind speed, higher order moments and averaging time. Measurement results are interpreted using measured and idealized probability density functions of horizontal wind vectors. These are also used to develop analytical functions describing how WD variability depends on wind speed, variance and other controlling factors in the atmospheric boundary layer. References: Davies B.M., Thomson D.J., 1999. Comparison of some parameterizations of wind direction variability with observations, Atmospheric Enviroment 33, 4909-4917. Lothon M. et al., 2012. The Boundary-Layer Late Afternoon and Sunset Turbulence field experiment, Proc. of the 20th Symposium on Boundary-Layers and Turbulence, 7-13 July, Boston, MA, USA. Mahrt L., 2011. Surface Wind Direction Variability, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 50. 144-152. Nagle J.C., 2011. Adapting to Pollution, Research Roundtable on Climate Change, Adaptation, and Enviromental Law, Northwestern Law Searle Center, Legal and Regulatory Studies 7-18 April, IL, USA.

  17. Experimental investigation of change of energy of infragavity waves in dependence on spectral characteristics of an irregular wind waves in coastal zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saprykina, Yana; Divinskii, Boris

    2013-04-01

    An infragravity waves are long waves with periods of 20 - 300 s. Most essential influence of infragarvity waves on dynamic processes is in a coastal zone, where its energy can exceed the energy of wind waves. From practical point of view, the infragravity waves are important, firstly, due to their influence on sand transport processes in a coastal zone. For example, interacting with group structure of wind waves the infragravity waves can define position of underwater bars on sandy coast. Secondly, they are responsible on formation of long waves in harbors. Main source of infragravity waves is wave group structure defined by sub-nonlinear interactions of wind waves (Longuet-Higgins, Stewart, 1962). These infragravity waves are bound with groups of wind waves and propagate with wave group velocity. Another type of infragravity waves are formed in a surf zone as a result of migration a wave breaking point (Symonds, et al., 1982). What from described above mechanisms of formation of infragravity waves prevails, till now it is unknown. It is also unknown how energy of infragravity waves depends on energy of input wind waves and how it changes during nonlinear wave transformation in coastal zone. In our work on the basis of the analysis of data of field experiment and numerical simulation a contribution of infragravity waves in total wave energy in depending on integral characteristics of an irregular wave field in the conditions of a real bathymetry was investigated. For analysis the data of field experiment "Shkorpilovtsy-2007" (Black sea) and data of numerical modeling of Boussinesq type equation with extended dispersion characteristics (Madsen et al., 1997) were used. It was revealed that infragravity waves in a coastal zone are defined mainly by local group structure of waves, which permanently changes due to nonlinearity, shoaling and breaking processes. Free infragravity waves appearing after wave breaking exist together with bound infragravity waves. There are no clear total dependences of energy of infrragravity waves from energy of wind waves and mean period of infragravity waves from mean period of wind waves. But significant wave height of infragravity waves depends on relative water depth (wave height of wind waves divided on water depth). There are different types of this dependence for breaking and non-breaking waves. The influence of peak period, significant wave height and directional spreading of initial wave spectrum on these dependences are discussed. The peculiarities of spectra of infragravity waves for non-breaking, breaking and multibreaking wind waves are shown. This work is supported by the RFBR, project 12-05-00965. References: Longuet-Higgins, M. S., R. W. Stewart, 1962. Radiation stress and mass transport in gravity waves, with an application to surf beats. J. Fluid Mech., 13, pp. 481-504. Symonds G., D.A. Huntley, A.J. Bowen, 1982. Two dimensional surf beat: long wave generation by a time-varying breakpoint. J. of Geoph. Res., 87(C), pp.492-498. Madsen P.A., Sorensen O.R., Shaffer H.A. 1997. Surf zone dynamics simulated by a Boussinesq type model. Coastal Engineering, 32, p. 255-287.

  18. Wind tunnel study on wind and turbulence intensity profiles in wind turbine wake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maeda, Takao; Kamada, Yasunari; Murata, Junsuke; Yonekura, Sayaka; Ito, Takafumi; Okawa, Atsushi; Kogaki, Tetsuya

    2011-06-01

    In recent years, there has been a rapid development of the wind farms in Japan. It becomes very important to investigate the wind turbine arrangement in wind farm, in order that the wake of one wind turbine does not to interfere with the flow in other wind turbines. In such a case, in order to achieve the highest possible efficiency from the wind, and to install as many as possible wind turbines within a limited area, it becomes a necessity to study the mutual interference of the wake developed by wind turbines. However, there is no report related to the effect of the turbulence intensity of the external flow on the wake behind a wind turbine generated in the wind tunnel. In this paper, the measurement results of the averaged wind profile and turbulence intensity profile in the wake in the wind tunnel are shown when the turbulence intensity of the external wind was changed. The wind tunnel experiment is performed with 500mm-diameter two-bladed horizontal axis wind turbine and the wind velocity in wake is measured by an I-type hot wire probe. As a result, it is clarified that high turbulence intensities enable to the entrainment of the main flow and the wake and to recover quickly the velocity in the wake.

  19. Evaluating the effects of land use and cover change on the decrease of surface wind speed over China in recent 30 years using a statistical downscaling method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Jian; Zha, Jinlin; Zhao, Deming

    2016-03-01

    The long-term decrease of surface wind speed (SWS) has been revealed by previous studies in China in recent decades, but the reasons for the SWS decrease remain uncertain. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of land use and cover change (LUCC) on the SWS decrease during 1980-2011 over the Eastern China Plain (ECP) region using a combined method of statistical downscaling and observation minus reanalysis data, which was used to improve the climate prediction of general circulation models and to evaluate the influence of LUCC on climate change. To exclude the potential influence of LUCC on SWS observation, a statistical downscaling model (SDM) was established during 1980-1992 because a lower extent of LUCC occurred during this period than in later periods. The skill of the SDM was checked by comparing the results of different predictor combinations. Then, SDM was used to improve the wind speed data at 10 m above the surface in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (V10m-ERA) during 1993-2011, which decreased the error in the reanalysis wind speed as far as possible. Then, the difference between the station observed SWS (V10m-OBV) and the downscaled SWS (V10m-SDM) during 1993-2011 (SWSD) was considered the quantitative estimation of the influence of the LUCC on SWS in this period. The V10m-SDM can capture both the large-scale and local characteristics in the observation, and their patterns are very similar. V10m-SDM has better performance in the spatial-temporal changes than does V10m-ERA with respect to V10m-OBV. The impact of LUCC on the SWS was pronounced, the SWSD was -0.24 m s-1 in 1993, and the SWSD reached -0.56 m s-1 in 2011. LUCC could induce a 0.17 m s-1 wind speed decrease per 10 year in the ECP region during 1993-2011. Furthermore, each 10 % rise of the urbanization rate could cause an approximately 0.12 m s-1 decrease in wind speed. Additionally, pressure-gradient force was eliminated as the primary cause of the observed long-term decrease of SWS in ECP by composite analysis and temporal serial analysis, and the rise of the surface drag force caused by LUCC was identified as an important factor inducing the SWS decrease during 1993-2011 in ECP region. Moreover, the results from different time lengths used to construct SDM were compared, and the uncertainties in SWSD were evaluated by different SDMs established by different time periods.

  20. Validation Campaigns for Sea Surface Wind and Wind Profile by Ground-Based Doppler Wind Lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhishen; Wu, Songhua; Song, Xiaoquan; Liu, Bingyi; Li, Zhigang

    2010-12-01

    According to the research frame of ESA-MOST DRAGON Cooperation Program (ID5291), Chinese partners from Ocean Remote Sensing Institute of Ocean University of China have carried out a serial of campaigns for ground-based lidar validations and atmospheric observations. ORSI/OUC Doppler wind lidar has been developed and deployed to accurately measure wind speed and direction over large areas in real time -- an application useful for ADM-Aeolus VAL/CAL, aviation safety, weather forecasting and sports. The sea surface wind campaigns were successfully accomplished at the Qingdao sailing competitions during the 29th Olympic Games. The lidar located at the seashore near the sailing field, and made a horizontal scan over the sea surface, making the wind measurement in real time and then uploading the data to the local meteorological station every 10 minutes. In addition to the sea surface wind campaigns, ORSI/OUC Doppler wind lidar was deployed on the wind profile observations for the China's Shenzhou 7 spacecraft landing zone weather campaigns in September 2008 in Inner Mongolia steppe. Wind profile was tracked by the mobile Doppler lidar system to help to predict the module's landing site. During above ground tests, validation lidar is tested to be able to provide an independent and credible measurement of radial wind speed, wind profile, 3D wind vector, aerosol- backscattering ratio, aerosol extinction coefficient, extinction-to-backscatter ratio in the atmospheric boundary layer and troposphere, sea surface wind vectors, which will be an independent and very effective validation tool for upcoming ADM-Aeolus project.

  1. Virus-Mediated Chemical Changes in Rice Plants Impact the Relationship between Non-Vector Planthopper Nilaparvata lugens Stål and Its Egg Parasitoid Anagrus nilaparvatae Pang et Wang

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Guanchun; Zhou, Xiaojun; Zheng, Xusong; Sun, Yujian; Yang, Yajun; Tian, Junce; Lu, Zhongxian

    2014-01-01

    In order to clarify the impacts of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV) infection on rice plants, rice planthoppers and natural enemies, differences in nutrients and volatile secondary metabolites between infected and healthy rice plants were examined. Furthermore, the impacts of virus-mediated changes in plants on the population growth of non-vector brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens, and the selectivity and parasitic capability of planthopper egg parasitoid Anagrus nilaparvatae were studied. The results showed that rice plants had no significant changes in amino acid and soluble sugar contents after SRBSDV infection, and SRBSDV-infected plants had no significant effect on population growth of non-vector BPH. A. nilaparvatae preferred BPH eggs both in infected and healthy rice plants, and tended to parasitize eggs on infected plants, but it had no significant preference for infected plants or healthy plants. GC-MS analysis showed that tridecylic aldehyde occurred only in rice plants infected with SRBSDV, whereas octanal, undecane, methyl salicylate and hexadecane occurred only in healthy rice plants. However, in tests of behavioral responses to these five volatile substances using a Y-tube olfactometer, A. nilaparvatae did not show obvious selectivity between single volatile substances at different concentrations and liquid paraffin in the control group. The parasitic capability of A. nilaparvatae did not differ between SRBSDV-infected plants and healthy plant seedlings. The results suggested that SRBSDV-infected plants have no significant impacts on the non-vector planthopper and its egg parasitoid, A. nilaparvatae. PMID:25141278

  2. Seasonal changes in estuarine dissolved organic matter due to variable flushing time and wind-driven mixing events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dixon, Jennifer L.; Osburn, Christopher L.; Paerl, Hans W.; Peierls, Benjamin L.

    2014-12-01

    This study examined the seasonality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) sources and transformations within the Neuse River estuary (NRE) in eastern North Carolina between March 2010 and February 2011. During this time, monthly surface and bottom water samples were collected along the longitudinal axis of the NRE, ranging from freshwater to mesohaline segments. The monthly mean of all surface and bottom measurements made on collected samples was used to clarify larger physical mixing controls in the estuary as a whole. By comparing monthly mean trends in DOM and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) properties in surface and bottom waters during varying hydrological conditions, we found that DOM and CDOM quality in the NRE is controlled by a combination of discharge, wind speed, and wind direction. The quality of DOM was assessed using C:N ratios, specific ultraviolet absorption at 254 nm (SUVA254), the absorption spectral slope ratio (SR), and the humification (HIX) and biological (BIX) indices from fluorescence. The NRE reflects allochthonous sources when discharge and flushing time are elevated at which times SUVA254 and HIX increased relative to base flow. During periods of reduced discharge and long flushing times in the estuary, extensive autochthonous production modifies the quality of the DOM pool in the NRE. This was evidenced by falling C:N values, and higher BIX and SR values. Lastly, a combination of increased wind speed and shifts in wind direction resulted in benthic resuspension events of degraded, planktonic OM. Thus, the mean DOM characteristics in this shallow micro-tidal estuary can be rapidly altered during episodic mixing events on timescales of a few weeks.

  3. Transcriptomics and disease vector control

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing can be used to compare transcriptomes under different conditions. A study in BMC Genomics applies this approach to investigating the effects of exposure to a range of xenobiotics on changes in gene expression in the larvae of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue fever. See research article http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2164/11/216 PMID:20525113

  4. Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.; Robertson, Dale M.; Lathrop, Richard C.; Hamilton, David P.

    2016-05-01

    The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911-2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s-1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s-1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (-1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911-1980, 1981-1993, and 1994-2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997-1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994-2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

  5. Emotional tone of ontario newspaper articles on the health effects of industrial wind turbines before and after policy change.

    PubMed

    Deignan, Benjamin; Hoffman-Goetz, Laurie

    2015-01-01

    Newspapers are often a primary source of health information for the public about emerging technologies. Information in newspapers can amplify or attenuate readers' perceptions of health risk depending on how it is presented. Five geographically distinct wind energy installations in Ontario, Canada were identified, and newspapers published in their surrounding communities were systematically searched for articles on health effects from industrial wind turbines from May 2007 to April 2011. The authors retrieved 421 articles from 13 community, 2 provincial, and 2 national newspapers. To measure the emotional tone of the articles, the authors used a list of negative and positive words, informed from previous studies as well as from a random sample of newspaper articles included in this study. The majority of newspaper articles (64.6%, n = 272) emphasized negative rather than positive/neutral tone, with community newspapers publishing a higher proportion of negative articles than provincial or national newspapers, χ(2)(2) = 15.1, p < .001. Articles were more likely to be negative when published 2 years after compared with 2 years before provincial legislation to reduce dependence on fossil fuels (the Green Energy Act), χ(2)(3) = 9.7, p < .05. Repeated public exposure to negative newspaper content may heighten readers' health risk perceptions about wind energy. PMID:25806896

  6. Erosion: Wind

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Wind erosion refers to the detachment, transport and deposition of sediment by wind. It is a dynamic, physical process where loose, dry, bare soils are transported by strong winds. Wind erosion is a soil degrading process that affects over 500 million ha of land worldwide and creates between 500 an...

  7. Extensive Replication of a Retroviral Replicating Vector Can Expand the A Bulge in the Encephalomyocarditis Virus Internal Ribosome Entry Site and Change Translation Efficiency of the Downstream Transgene.

    PubMed

    Lin, Amy H; Liu, Yanzheng; Burrascano, Cynthia; Cunanan, Kathrina; Logg, Christopher R; Robbins, Joan M; Kasahara, Noriyuki; Gruber, Harry; Ibañez, Carlos; Jolly, Douglas J

    2016-04-01

    We have developed retroviral replicating vectors (RRV) derived from Moloney murine gammaretrovirus with an amphotropic envelope and an encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV) internal ribosome entry site (IRES)-transgene cassette downstream of the env gene. During long-term (180 days) replication of the vector in animals, a bulge of 7 adenosine residues (A's) in the J-K bifurcation domain sometimes serially added A's. Therefore, vectors with 4-12 A's in the A bulge in the J-K bifurcation domain were generated, and the impact of the variants on transgene protein expression, vector stability, and IRES sequence upon multiple infection cycles was assessed in RRV encoding yeast-derived cytosine deaminase and green fluorescent protein in vitro. For transgene protein expression, after multiple infection cycles, RRV-IRES with 5-7 A's gave roughly comparable levels, 4 and 8 A's were within about 4-5-fold of the 6 A's, whereas 10 and 12 A's were marked lower. In terms of stability, after 10 infection cycles, expansion of A's appeared to be a more frequent event affecting transgene protein expression than viral genome deletions or rearrangement: 4 and 5 A's appeared completely stable; 6, 7, and particularly 8 A's showed some level of expansion in the A bulge; 10 and 12 A's underwent both expansion and transgene deletion. The strong relative translational activity of the 5 A's in the EMCV IRES has not been reported previously. The 5A RRV-IRES may have utility for preclinical and clinical applications where extended replication is required. PMID:26918465

  8. Winding for the wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weingart, O.

    The mechanical properties and construction of epoxy-impregnated fiber-glass blades for wind turbines are discussed, along with descriptions of blades for the Mod 0A and Mod 5A WECS and design goals for a 4 kW WECS. Multicell structure combined with transverse filament tape winding reduces labor and material costs, while placing a high percentage of 0 deg fibers spanwise in the blades yields improved strength and elastic properties. The longitudinal, transverse, and shear modulus are shown to resist stresses exceeding the 50 lb/sq ft requirements, with constant stress resistance expected until fatigue failure is approached. Regression analysis indicates a fatigue life of 400 million operating cycles. The small WECS under prototype development features composite blades, nacelle, and tower. Rated at 5.7 kW in a 15 mph wind, the machine operates over a speed range of 9-53.9 mph and is expected to produce 16,200 kWh annually in a 10 mph average wind measured at 30 ft.

  9. Winding for the wind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weingart, O.

    1981-01-01

    The mechanical properties and construction of epoxy-impregnated fiber-glass blades for wind turbines are discussed, along with descriptions of blades for the Mod 0A and Mod 5A WECS and design goals for a 4 kW WECS. Multicell structure combined with transverse filament tape winding reduces labor and material costs, while placing a high percentage of 0 deg fibers spanwise in the blades yields improved strength and elastic properties. The longitudinal, transverse, and shear modulus are shown to resist stresses exceeding the 50 lb/sq ft requirements, with constant stress resistance expected until fatigue failure is approached. Regression analysis indicates a fatigue life of 400 million operating cycles. The small WECS under prototype development features composite blades, nacelle, and tower. Rated at 5.7 kW in a 15 mph wind, the machine operates over a speed range of 9-53.9 mph and is expected to produce 16,200 kWh annually in a 10 mph average wind measured at 30 ft.

  10. Association of anthropogenic land use change and increased abundance of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius pallescens in a rural landscape of Panama.

    PubMed

    Gottdenker, Nicole L; Calzada, José E; Saldaña, Azäel; Carroll, C Ronald

    2011-01-01

    Anthropogenic disturbance is associated with increased vector-borne infectious disease transmission in wildlife, domestic animals, and humans. The objective of this study was to evaluate how disturbance of a tropical forest landscape impacts abundance of the triatomine bug Rhodnius pallescens, a vector of Chagas disease, in the region of the Panama Canal in Panama. Rhodnius pallescens was collected (n = 1,186) from its primary habitat, the palm Attalea butyracea, in five habitat types reflecting a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. There was a high proportion of palms infested with R. pallescens across all habitat types (range = 77.1-91.4%). Results show that disturbed habitats are associated with increased vector abundance compared with relatively undisturbed habitats. Bugs collected in disturbed sites, although in higher abundance, tended to be in poor body condition compared with bugs captured in protected forest sites. Abundance data suggests that forest remnants may be sources for R. pallescens populations within highly disturbed areas of the landscape. PMID:21212205

  11. Association of Anthropogenic Land Use Change and Increased Abundance of the Chagas Disease Vector Rhodnius pallescens in a Rural Landscape of Panama

    PubMed Central

    Gottdenker, Nicole L.; Calzada, José E.; Saldaña, Azäel; Carroll, C. Ronald

    2011-01-01

    Anthropogenic disturbance is associated with increased vector-borne infectious disease transmission in wildlife, domestic animals, and humans. The objective of this study was to evaluate how disturbance of a tropical forest landscape impacts abundance of the triatomine bug Rhodnius pallescens, a vector of Chagas disease, in the region of the Panama Canal in Panama. Rhodnius pallescens was collected (n = 1,186) from its primary habitat, the palm Attalea butyracea, in five habitat types reflecting a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. There was a high proportion of palms infested with R. pallescens across all habitat types (range = 77.1–91.4%). Results show that disturbed habitats are associated with increased vector abundance compared with relatively undisturbed habitats. Bugs collected in disturbed sites, although in higher abundance, tended to be in poor body condition compared with bugs captured in protected forest sites. Abundance data suggests that forest remnants may be sources for R. pallescens populations within highly disturbed areas of the landscape. PMID:21212205

  12. Bottom-current and wind-pattern changes as indicated by Late Glacial and Holocene sediments from western Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Girardclos, S.; Baster, I.; Wildi, W.; Pugin, A.; Rachoud-Schneider, A. -M.

    2003-01-01

    The Late-Glacial and Holocene sedimentary history of the Hauts-Monts area (western Lake Geneva, Switzerland) is reconstructed combining high resolution seismic stratigraphy and well-dated sedimentary cores. Six reflections and seismic units are defined and represented by individual isopach maps, which are further combined to obtain a three-dimensional age-depth model. Slumps, blank areas and various geometries are identified using these seismic data. The sediment depositional areas have substantially changed throughout the lake during the end of the Late-Glacial and the Holocene. These changes are interpreted as the result of variations in the intensity of deep lake currents and the frequency of strong winds determining the distribution of sediment input from the Versoix River and from reworking of previously deposited sediments within the lacustrine basin. The identified changes in sediment distribution allowed us to reconstruct the lake's deep-current history and the evolution of dominant strong wind regimes from the Preboreal to present times.

  13. WIND-DRIVEN RAINSPLASH EROSION

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In wind-driven rains, variations in raindrop trajectory and frequency are highly expected due to the changes in the angle of raindrop incidence. This paper presents experimental data obtained on the effects of horizontal wind velocity on physical raindrop impact and rainsplash detachment. In a wind ...

  14. CMIP5 Projections of 21st Century Westerly Wind Changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica: Long-Term Predictability and the Role of Tropical Linkages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bracegirdle, T.; Turner, J.; Hosking, J. S.; Phillips, T.

    2014-12-01

    Winds over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, are a key driver of variability and change in regional ocean-ice interactions and therefore an