Sample records for water level predictions

  1. Prediction of subsurface water level change from satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saykawlard, Suphan; Honda, Kiyoshi; Das Gupta, Ashim; Eiumnoh, Apisit; Chen, Xiaoyong

    2005-03-01

    This study explores the potential for predicting the spatial variation in subsurface water level change with crop growth stage from satellite data in Thabua Irrigation Project, situated in the northern central region of Thailand. The relationship between subsurface water level change from pumping water to irrigate rice in the dry season and the age of the rice was analysed. The spatial model of subsurface water level change was developed from the classification using greenness or (normalized difference vegetation index NDVI) derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data. The NDVI of 52 rice fields was employed to assess its relationship to the age of the rice. It was found that NDVI and rice age have a good correlation (R2 = 0.73). The low NDVI values (-0.059 to 0.082) in these fields were related to the young rice stage (0-30 days). NDVI and subsurface water level change were also correlated in this study and found to have a high correlation (Water level change (m day-1) = 0.3442 × NDVI - 0.0372; R2 = 0.96). From this model, the water level change caused by rice at different growth stages was derived. This was used to show the spatial variation of water level change in the project during the 1998-99 dry-season cropping. This simple method of using NDVI relationships with water level change and crop growth stages proves to be useful in determining the areas prone to excessive lowering of the subsurface water level during the dry season. This could assist in the appropriate planning of the use of subsurface water resources in dry-season cropping.

  2. Predicting Mean Monthly Lake Water Level Using Support Vector Machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, M.; Coulibaly, P.

    2004-05-01

    An experiment on predicting mean monthly lake water level up to 12 month ahead using a recently evolved neural network topology namely support vector machine (SVM) is presented. The support vector machine is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning, which implements a structural risk minimization principle that minimizes the mean square error and an upper bound on the expected risk, as opposed to empirical risk minimization that minimizes the error on the training data only. This has made the support vector training algorithm robust compared to conventional neural network models. The modeling experiment is conducted using historical records of Lake Erie mean monthly water level of 1918 to 2001. The performance of the SVM model is compared with a widely used neural network model called multilayer perceptron (MLP) and with a conventional multiplicative seasonal autoregressive model (SAR) based on correlation coefficients and root mean squared errors performance criteria. Since the ultimate goal concerns the improvement of long-term forecast accuracy, overall, the prediction results show that the proposed method is effective for improving prediction accuracy compared to the MLP and SAR models up to 12 month lead time.

  3. Analytical approach for predicting fresh water discharge in an estuary based on tidal water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, H.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Jiang, C.

    2014-10-01

    As the tidal wave propagates into an estuary, the tidally averaged water level tends to rise in landward direction due to the density difference between saline and fresh water and the asymmetry of the friction. The effect of friction on the residual slope is even more remarkable when accounting for fresh water discharge. In this study, we investigate the influence of river discharge on tidal wave propagation in the Yangtze estuary with specific attention to residual water level slope. This is done by using a one-dimensional analytical model for tidal hydrodynamics accounting for the residual water level. We demonstrate the importance of the residual slope on tidal dynamics and use it to improve the prediction of the tidal propagation in estuaries (i.e. tidal damping, velocity amplitude, wave celerity and phase lag), especially when the influence of river discharge is significant. Finally, we develop a new inverse analytical approach for estimating fresh water discharge on the basis of tidal water level observations along the estuary, which can be used as a tool to obtain information on the river discharge that is otherwise difficult to measure in the tidal region.

  4. Analytical approach for predicting fresh water discharge in an estuary based on tidal water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, H.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Jiang, C.

    2014-06-01

    As the tidal wave propagates into an estuary, the tidally averaged water level tends to rise in landward direction due to the density difference between saline and fresh water and the asymmetry of the friction. The effect of friction on the residual slope is even more remarkable when accounting for fresh water discharge. In this study, we investigate the influence of river discharge on tidal wave propagation in the Yangtze estuary with specific attention to residual water level slope. This is done by using a one-dimensional analytical model for tidal hydrodynamics accounting for the residual water level. We demonstrate the importance of the residual slope on tidal dynamics and use it to improve the prediction of the tidal propagation in estuaries (i.e., tidal damping, velocity amplitude, wave celerity and phase lag), especially when the influence of river discharge is significant. Finally, we develop a new inverse analytical approach for estimating fresh water discharge on the basis of tidal water level observations along the estuary, which can be used as a tool to obtain information on the river discharge that is otherwise difficult to measure in the tidal region.

  5. Predicting Atrazine Levels in Water Utility Intake Water for MCL Compliance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To protect human health, atrazine concentrations in drinking water must not exceed its maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 3 ug/L. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates that municipal water providers sample quarterly to determine MCL compliance. Atrazine levels were mon...

  6. Prediction of leachate level in Kimpo metropolitan landfill site by total water balance.

    PubMed

    Dho, Nam Yung; Koo, Ja Kong; Lee, Seung Rae

    2002-02-01

    Kimpo metropolitan landfill has received various kinds of wastes since January 1992. The leachate level was measured to be 10.3 m in May 1995 and the level increased to 12.2 m in August 1996. Therefore, to prove the reason for the increasing leachate level, we calibrated hydraulic conductivity of each waste and intermediate layer using the HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) model. The leachate generation data measured from February 1993 to October 1995 was used in the model calibration. As a result of a model calibration, we obtained an average infiltration ratio and used this in analysis of the total water balance to predict elevation of leachate level. Main causes of the elevation of the leachate level were the high water content of the waste and the degradation of the leachate-drainage system caused by the subsidence of a natural barrier layer. PMID:11878630

  7. Exploiting Two Intelligent Models to Predict Water Level: A field study of Urmia lake, Iran

    E-print Network

    Fernandez, Thomas

    --Water level forecasting using records of past time series is of importance in water resources engineering is used to forecast daily water level variations for a set of time intervals using observed water levels--Water-Level variation, Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Programming, Comparative analysis. I

  8. A reactor water level and pressure prediction method under small loss-of-coolant-accident conditions in boiling water reactors

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Y. Ohga; K. Fukunishi

    1985-01-01

    An on-line method of predicting reactor water level and pressure under small loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) conditions has been proposed. The method features initialization of a simplified reactor model in transient conditions. This is done by using plant data in time series and estimating unknown parameters, such as break area, by a nonlinear optimization method. Off-line simulations were performed for small LOCAs

  9. Prediction of water seepage into a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste

    SciTech Connect

    Birkholzer, Jens; Mukhophadhyay, Sumit; Tsang, Yvonne

    2003-07-07

    Predicting the amount of water that may seep into waste emplacement drifts is important for assessing the performance of the proposed geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The repository would be located in thick, partially saturated fractured tuff that will be heated to above-boiling temperatures as a result of heat generation from the decay of nuclear waste. Since infiltrating water will be subject to vigorous boiling for a significant time period, the superheated rock zone (i.e., rock temperature above the boiling point of water) can form an effective vaporization barrier that reduces the possibility of water arrival at emplacement drifts. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of episodic preferential flow events that penetrate the hot fractured rock, evaluate the impact of such flow behavior on the effectiveness of the vaporization barrier, and discuss the implications for the performance assessment of the repository. A semi-analytical solution is utilized to determine the complex flow processes in the hot rock environment. The solution is applied at several discrete times after emplacement, covering the time period of strongly elevated temperatures at Yucca Mountain.

  10. Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

  11. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes

    PubMed Central

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  12. Importance of long-term cycles for predicting water level dynamics in natural lakes.

    PubMed

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  13. How historical information can improve extreme coastal water levels probability prediction: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2014-11-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativize such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that: (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data till end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data till end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  14. Digital-model analysis to predict water levels in a well field near Columbus, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Planert, Michael

    1976-01-01

    Columbus, Indiana, obtains its water supply from six municipally owned wells southwest of the city. The wells are screened in an outwash sand and gravel aquifer that was deposited by glacial melt water in a preglacial bedrock valley. The well field is midway between the East Fork White River and the western edge of the valley. A digital model was used to determine the effects of two pumping plans on the outwash sand and gravel aquifer. In pumping plan 1, a continuous pumping rate of 1,400 gallons per minute (gpm) for 10 years in each of the city 's six existing wells was simulated with the model. Model results of plan 1 indicate that the water levels in the area of the well field would be lowered more than 20 ft and that drawdowns in the wells would approach 35 ft after 10 years ' pumping. Pumping plan 2 had two stages of pumping. In the first, a continuous pumping rate of 1,400 gpm for 5 years in each of the city 's six existing wells was simulated with the model; the second stage of pumping plan 2 differed from stage 1 only in that five planned wells were added to the six existing wells. Model results of plan 2 indicate that water levels in the area of the well field would be lowered as much as 40 feet. Drawdown at two of the well sites would approach 60 ft, leaving less than 15 ft of the initial 70 ft of saturated thickness at the two wells after 10 years ' pumping. (Woodard-USGS)

  15. Variations in trihalomethane levels in three French water distribution systems and the development of a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Mouly, Damien; Joulin, Eric; Rosin, Christophe; Beaudeau, Pascal; Zeghnoun, Abdelkrim; Olszewski-Ortar, Agnès; Munoz, Jean François; Welté, Bénédicte; Joyeux, Michel; Seux, René; Montiel, Antoine; Rodriguez, M J

    2010-10-01

    Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that chlorination by-products in drinking water may cause some types of cancer in humans. However, due to differences in methodology between the various studies, it is not possible to establish a dose-response relationship. This shortcoming is due primarily to uncertainties about how exposure is measured-made difficult by the great number of compounds present-the exposure routes involved and the variation in concentrations in water distribution systems. This is especially true for trihalomethanes for which concentrations can double between the water treatment plant and the consumer tap. The aim of this study is to describe the behaviour of trihalomethanes in three French water distribution systems and develop a mathematical model to predict concentrations in the water distribution system using data collected from treated water at the plant (i.e. the entrance of the distribution system). In 2006 and 2007, samples were taken successively from treated water at the plant and at several points in the water distribution system in three French cities. In addition to the concentrations of the four trihalomethanes (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), many other parameters involved in their formation that affect their concentration were also measured. The average trihalomethane concentration in the three water distribution systems ranged from 21.6 ?g/L to 59.9 ?g/L. The increase in trihalomethanes between the treated water at the plant and a given point in the water distribution system varied by a factor of 1.1-5.7 over all of the samples. A log-log linear regression model was constructed to predict THM concentrations in the water distribution system. The five variables used were trihalomethane concentration and free residual chlorine for treated water at the plant, two variables that characterize the reactivity of organic matter (specific UV absorbance (SUVA), an indicator developed for the free chlorine consumption in the treatment plant before distribution ?) and water residence time in the distribution system. French regulations impose a minimum trihalomethane level for drinking water and most tests are performed on treated water at the plant. Applied in this context, the model developed here helps better to understand trihalomethane exposure in the French population, particularly useful for epidemiological studies. PMID:20663536

  16. Soil moisture versus depth-to-water-level: Which is better for predicting plant composition in a restored floodplain wetland?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, E.; Loheide, S. P.

    2010-12-01

    Depth-to-water-level (DTWL) measurements in shallow groundwater piezometers are commonly used to develop relationships between wetland plant composition and the available water regime. Such relationships can provide useful predictions of plant composition for land managers under potential changing conditions (e.g., climate change, land use change, environmental flow releases, groundwater pumping) when combined with a hydrologic model. These analyses, however, implicitly use DTWL as a surrogate for the water regime within the root zone, which is experienced by plants. Bi-weekly field measurements of both variables (DTWL and SM) were made at a restored floodplain wetland over the 2009 and 2010 growing seasons. Plant species composition and percent cover were also sampled at the same locations (N=62). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) and nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) were used to compare how effectively the two hydrologic metrics explain the overall plant community ordination space (NMS) and predict the probability of presence of certain dominant species (NPMR). Both statistical techniques revealed that SM was more successful than DTWL at explaining the overall plant community structure and predicting plant composition for certain dominant species. The predictive modeling results also suggest that hydrologic extremes on a species-specific basis are effective predictors of plant composition. Field evidence based on soil coring and geophysical imaging suggests that the reason for the discrepancy in the efficacy of the two hydrologic variables is the presence of a confining silt-clay layer in some areas of the floodplain that partially decouples soil moisture in the root zone from groundwater in a deeper gravel layer. While DTWL may be adequate as a predictive variable in vegetation modeling at some sites, SM is likely to be more valuable - especially at sites where soil moisture and groundwater are decoupled - at developing robust relationships between the water regime and vegetation.

  17. Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López López, P.; Verkade, J. S.; Weerts, A. H.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2014-09-01

    The present study comprises an intercomparison of different configurations of a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty. It builds on earlier work by Weerts, Winsemius and Verkade (2011; hereafter referred to as WWV2011), who used the quantile regression technique to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty using a deterministic water level forecast as a predictor. The various configurations are designed to address two issues with the WWV2011 implementation: (i) quantile crossing, which causes non-strictly rising cumulative predictive distributions, and (ii) the use of linear quantile models to describe joint distributions that may not be strictly linear. Thus, four configurations were built: (i) a ''classical" quantile regression, (ii) a configuration that implements a non-crossing quantile technique, (iii) a configuration where quantile models are built in normal space after application of the normal quantile transformation (NQT) (similar to the implementation used by WWV2011), and (iv) a configuration that builds quantile model separately on separate domains of the predictor. Using each configuration, four reforecasting series of water levels at 14 stations in the upper Severn River were established. The quality of these four series was intercompared using a set of graphical and numerical verification metrics. Intercomparison showed that reliability and sharpness vary across configurations, but in none of the configurations do these two forecast quality aspects improve simultaneously. Further analysis shows that skills in terms of the Brier skill score, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and relative operating characteristic score is very similar across the four configurations.

  18. Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López López, P.; Verkade, J. S.; Weerts, A. H.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2014-04-01

    The present study comprises an inter-comparison of different configurations of a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty. It builds on earlier work by Weerts et al. (2011, herinafter referred to as wwv2011), who used the Quantile Regression technique to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty using a deterministic water level forecast as a predictor. The various configurations are designed to address two issues with the wwv2011 implementation: (i) quantile crossing, which causes non-strictly rising cumulative predictive distributions, and (ii) the use of linear quantile models to describe joint distributions that may not be strictly linear. Thus, four configurations were built: (i) the "as is" implementation used by wwv2011, (ii) a configuration that implements a non-crossing quantile technique, (iii) a configuration where quantile models are built in Normal space after application of the Normal Quantile Transform, and (iv) a configuration that builds quantile model separately on separate domains of the predictor. Using each, four re-forecasting series of water levels at fourteen stations in the Upper Severn River were established. The quality of these four series was inter-compared using a set of graphical and numerical verification metrics. Intercomparison showed that reliability and sharpness vary across configurations, but in none of the configurations do these two forecast quality aspects improve simultaneously. Further analysis shows that skills in terms of Brier Skill Score, mean Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and Relative Operating Characteristic Score is very similar across the four configurations.

  19. Predicting Ground Water Flow

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    In this activity students learn how to draw ground water contours and understand how ground water flow may be predicted. As they complete this activity students will be able to draw a ground water contour map, have a basic understanding of how to predict the direction of ground water flow and understand the interrelated nature of ground water and surface water flow. They will also learn the difference between a gaining stream and a losing stream and why it is important to know the difference.

  20. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida everglades.

    PubMed

    van der Valk, Arnold G; Volin, John C; Wetzel, Paul R

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades. PMID:25566832

  1. Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

  2. Ground-water-level monitoring for earthquake prediction; a progress report based on data collected in Southern California, 1976-79

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moyle, W.R., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a research program to determine if groundwater-level measurements can be used for earthquake prediction. Earlier studies suggest that water levels in wells may be responsive to small strains on the order of 10 to the minus 8th power to 10 to the minus 10th power (dimensionless). Water-level data being collected in the area of the southern California uplift show response to earthquakes and other natural and manmade effects. The data are presently (1979) being made ready for computer analysis. The completed analysis may indicate the presence of precursory earthquake information. (USGS)

  3. Improved sea level anomaly prediction through combination of data relationship analysis and genetic programming in Singapore Regional Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurniawan, Alamsyah; Ooi, Seng Keat; Babovic, Vladan

    2014-11-01

    With recent advances in measurement and information technology, there is an abundance of data available for analysis and modelling of hydrodynamic systems. Spatial and temporal data coverage, better quality and reliability of data modelling and data driven techniques have resulted in more favourable acceptance by the hydrodynamic community. The data mining tools and techniques are being applied in variety of hydro-informatics applications ranging from data mining for pattern discovery to data driven models and numerical model error correction. The present study explores the feasibility of applying mutual information theory by evaluating the amount of information contained in observed and prediction errors of non-tidal barotropic numerical modelling (i.e. assuming that the hydrodynamic model, available at this point, is best representation of the physics in the domain of interest) by relating them to variables that reflect the state at which the predictions are made such as input data, state variables and model output. In addition, the present study explores the possibility of employing ‘genetic programming' (GP) as an offline data driven modelling tool to capture the sea level anomaly (SLA) dynamics and then using them for updating the numerical model prediction in real time applications. These results suggest that combination of data relationship analysis and GP models helps to improve the forecasting ability by providing information of significant predicative parameters. It is found that GP based SLA prediction error forecast model can provide significant improvement when applied as data assimilation schemes for updating the SLA prediction obtained from primary hydrodynamic models.

  4. NOAA: About Water Levels, Tides and Currents

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    A comprehensive lesson on what causes tides, current and past techniques for predicting tides, how and why water level is measured, and the challenges of measuring water currents. Site provides additional links to other NOAA tide resources.

  5. Probability prediction of the Caspian sea level with consideration of the development of water-consuming industries in its basin

    SciTech Connect

    Berezner, A.S.

    1987-11-01

    This article discusses the consequences for the Caspian Sea of the future economic and industrial development of the area and proposes a strategy for forecasting its continued existence from hydrological and meteorological standpoints as well as on the basis of projected water consumption by the industries moving into the area. Further strategies are put forth for resource management and conservation which are responsive to variations in the level of the sea and in the inflow from surrounding rivers and watersheds. Government policy toward development and utilization of the Caspian Sea over the past few years is also discussed.

  6. Tides and Water Levels

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This site serves as a gateway to three sections devoted to learning about tides and water levels: an online tutorial, an list of links to tidal resources, and formal lesson plans. The tutorial is an overview of the complex systems that govern the movement of tides and water levels. It is content rich, is presented in easy-to-understand language, and includes many illustrative and interactive graphics to visually enhance the text. The links direct users to specific tidal and current data offered within the National Ocean Service and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's family of products. Lesson plans integrate information presented in the tutorial with online data. These lesson plans have been developed for students in grades 9-12 and focus on the forces that cause and effect tides, analysis of the variations in tidal patterns and what conditions may cause them, and the effect of lunar cycles on living organisms.

  7. How predictable are water resources?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, P.

    2010-10-01

    Peter Mason, technical director of international dams and hydropower at MWH, explains how some water resources might be more predictable than generally supposed. Some years ago the writer examined the levels of Lake Victoria in east Africa as part of a major refurbishment project. This revealed a clear cyclic behavior in lake level and hence in discharges from the lake down the Nile system and up into Egypt. A recent study by the writer demonstrated that 20-year mean flows in the Kafue River in Zambia corresponded well to reconstructed rainfall records based on regional tree ring records. The Rio Parana has a catchment area of 3,100,000km 2 and a mean stream flow of 21,300m 3/sec. In the wider context an improved understanding of apparent periodicities in the natural record would seem to offer at least one planning scenario to be considered in terms of investment and even for the long term planning of aid and famine relief.

  8. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    PubMed

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale. PMID:25694031

  9. Prediction of concentration levels of metformin and other high consumption pharmaceuticals in wastewater and regional surface water based on sales data.

    PubMed

    Oosterhuis, Mathijs; Sacher, Frank; Ter Laak, Thomas L

    2013-01-01

    Local consumption data of pharmaceuticals were used to study the emission to wastewater and surface waters in two small Dutch water catchments. For nine high consumption pharmaceuticals: metformin, metoprolol, sotalol, losartan, valsartan, irbesartan, hydrochlorothiazide, diclofenac and carbamazepine, predicted emissions were compared to wastewater concentrations, removal in sewage treatment plants and recovery in regional surface water. The study shows that local consumption data can be very useful to select pharmaceuticals for monitoring and to predict wastewater concentrations. Measured influent concentrations were on average 78% with a range of 31-138% of predicted influent concentrations. Metformin is the pharmaceutical with the highest concentration in wastewater (64-98 ?g/L) but it is removed with >98% in sewage treatment plants (STP). Guanylurea, a biodegradation product of metformin, was detected in STP effluents and surface waters at concentrations of 39-56 ?g/L and 1.8-3.9 ?g/L, respectively. The STP removal of the different pharmaceuticals varied strongly. For carbamazepine, hydrochlorothiazide and sotalol a significant better removal was found at higher temperatures and longer hydraulic retention times while for metoprolol significantly better removal was only observed at higher temperatures. Predicting environmental concentrations from regional consumption data might be an alternative to monitoring of pharmaceuticals in wastewater and surface waters. PMID:23183121

  10. Predicting Ground Water Nitrate Concentration from Land Use

    E-print Network

    Vogel, Richard M.

    concentrations of nitrate in drinking water can cause low oxygen levels in the blood of infants, known of 10 mg/L nitrate. Increased nitrogen levels also detrimentally affect coastal waters by expeditingPredicting Ground Water Nitrate Concentration from Land Use by Kristin K. Gardner1 and Richard M

  11. Streamflow and Water Level Measurements

    USGS Multimedia Gallery

    USGS scientists Joel Galloway and Dan Thomas prepare to take streamflow and water level measurements of the flooded Red River in downtown Fargo, ND. The USGS Red River of the North at Fargo streamgage can be seen in the background....

  12. Groundwater Level Prediction using M5 Model Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalarajan, Nitha Ayinippully; Mohandas, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater is an important resource, readily available and having high economic value and social benefit. Recently, it had been considered a dependable source of uncontaminated water. During the past two decades, increased rate of extraction and other greedy human actions have resulted in the groundwater crisis, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Under prevailing circumstances, the availability of predicted groundwater levels increase the importance of this valuable resource, as an aid in the planning of groundwater resources. For this purpose, data-driven prediction models are widely used in the present day world. M5 model tree (MT) is a popular soft computing method emerging as a promising method for numeric prediction, producing understandable models. The present study discusses the groundwater level predictions using MT employing only the historical groundwater levels from a groundwater monitoring well. The results showed that MT can be successively used for forecasting groundwater levels.

  13. Computer program to predict aircraft noise levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources were programmed to predict aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. The noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. Outputs can include spectra, overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, tone-weighted perceived noise level, and effective perceived noise level at locations specified by the user. Footprint contour coordinates and approximate footprint areas can also be calculated. Inputs and outputs can be in either System International or U.S. customary units. The subroutines for each noise source and propagation correction are described. A complete listing is given.

  14. Water level gauge for a nuclear reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Morooka, S.

    1983-07-19

    A water level gauge for a nuclear reactor includes heat conduction means for absorbing and conducting heat to the outside of the drywell, the heat being supplied to reference water head water inside a reference water head tube defining a reference water level inside a reference water level container, and to water inside a lower part pressure pipe connecting a nuclear reactor pressure vessel with a differential pressure detector. The water level gauge further includes heat exchanger for removing the heat. With this device, the water level of the nuclear reactor may be correctly detected even in the case of leakage accident of the coolant of the nuclear reactor.

  15. Predicting water table response to rainfall events, central Florida.

    PubMed

    van Gaalen, J F; Kruse, S; Lafrenz, W B; Burroughs, S M

    2013-01-01

    A rise in water table in response to a rainfall event is a complex function of permeability, specific yield, antecedent soil-water conditions, water table level, evapotranspiration, vegetation, lateral groundwater flow, and rainfall volume and intensity. Predictions of water table response, however, commonly assume a linear relationship between response and rainfall based on cumulative analysis of water level and rainfall logs. By identifying individual rainfall events and responses, we examine how the response/rainfall ratio varies as a function of antecedent water table level (stage) and rainfall event size. For wells in wetlands and uplands in central Florida, incorporating stage and event size improves forecasting of water table rise by more than 30%, based on 10 years of data. At the 11 sites studied, the water table is generally least responsive to rainfall at smallest and largest rainfall event sizes and at lower stages. At most sites the minimum amount of rainfall required to induce a rise in water table is fairly uniform when the water table is within 50 to 100 cm of land surface. Below this depth, the minimum typically gradually increases with depth. These observations can be qualitatively explained by unsaturated zone flow processes. Overall, response/rainfall ratios are higher in wetlands and lower in uplands, presumably reflecting lower specific yields and greater lateral influx in wetland sites. Pronounced depth variations in rainfall/response ratios appear to correlate with soil layer boundaries, where corroborating data are available. PMID:22834892

  16. 2, 11071145, 2005 Water level

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    in the river, is ex-5 tremely complex being non-linear, time varying and spatially distributed (Singh, 1964 are parameterised with reference to flood events alone, where water lev- els are higher than a selected threshold. The analysis of the three models is performed by using the same input and output variables. However, in order

  17. Water Levels on the Great Lakes

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This resource explains that water levels are part of the ebb and flow of nature and the difference between the amount of water coming into a lake and the amount going out is the determining factor in whether the water level will rise, fall or remain stable. Students will learn that there are three types of water level fluctuations: short-term changes due to winds or changes in barometric pressure, seasonal changes depending on evaporation and precipitations, and long-term changes due to successive years of weather aberrations. Textual information is accompanied by graphs that illustrate these changes. The site also includes information about methods of measuring water levels and the economic impact of the changing levels.

  18. Cascade generalized predictive control strategy for boiler drum level

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Min Xu; Shaoyuan Li; Wenjian Cai

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a cascade model predictive control scheme for boiler drum level control. By employing generalized predictive control structures for both inner and outer loops, measured and unmeasured disturbances can be effectively rejected, and drum level at constant load is maintained. In addition, nonminimum phase characteristic and system constraints in both loops can be handled effectively by generalized predictive

  19. Prediction uncertainty in basin-scale predictions of water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starn, J. J.; Green, C. T.

    2011-12-01

    Upward trends in dissolved solids are occurring in some wells, ranging in depth from 100 to 1,250 feet, in the basin-fill aquifer in Salt Lake Valley, Utah. Possible sources and constituents of dissolved solids include mineral dissolution in native and recently recharged water (calcium, sulfate, and bicarbonate), surface water concentrated by evaporation (sodium and chloride), and application of road de-icing chemicals (sodium and chloride). A groundwater simulation model is being used to understand the trends. Model parameters are optimized using nonlinear regression to match tritium concentrations in samples from public-supply wells. Tritium is considered here to be conservative and non-sorbing, whereas dissolved solid chemistry is probably more complex. The migration of atmospheric tritium through the area where dissolved solids trends are observed provides some information on groundwater velocity in the area of interest. The effect of model cell size on accuracy of tritium concentration predictions is tested. In this case, a coarse model grid may be sufficient to understand the causes of the trends. The simulation strategy is to use an existing calibrated groundwater flow model with parameters (hydraulic conductivity, storativity, and boundary fluxes) regularized at previously calibrated values. An advective transport simulation of tritium, observed at 135 well locations (many of which were sampled multiple times), was calibrated by optimizing porosity parameter values regularized using pilot points. Two models are tested-a single porosity domain and a dual porosity domain with mass transfer. Sensitivity of the model parameters is affected by the model structure (large grid cells), model conceptualization (porosity domains), and data quality (locations and times of samples). Prediction uncertainty is assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation, and a comparison of the results for the two models indicates that parameter estimates are affected by real and numerical dispersion, particularly in the dual-domain porosity simulations, where the additional parameters can mimic the effect of dispersion. The multiple ways of simulating (or ignoring) dispersion affects parameter estimates, parameter uncertainty, and prediction uncertainty. Although prediction uncertainty can be high, a simplified interpretation of the model helps explain the trends in dissolved solids.

  20. Runtime Prediction of Service Level Agreement Violations

    E-print Network

    Dustdar, Schahram

    providers, it is essential to prevent SLA vi- olations as much as possible to enhance customer satisfaction SLA violations at run- time, which uses measured and estimated facts (instance data of the compo example. Keywords: Service-oriented Computing, Web Services, SLA, Prediction of SLA Violations c 2010

  1. Two-level adaptive training branch prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tse-Yu Yeh; Yale N. Patt

    1991-01-01

    High-performance microarchitectures use, among other structures, deep pipelines to help speed up exe- cution. The importance of a good branch predictor to the effectiveness of a deep pipeline in the presence of condi- tional branches is well-known. In fact, the literature contains proposals for a number of branch prediction schemes. Some are static in that they use opcode information and

  2. Models to predict water chemical cluster variables

    SciTech Connect

    Hakanson, L. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden)

    1994-10-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify and rank variables of significance to predict mean values of lake pH and related variables (alkalinity, conductivity, hardness, etc.) in small glacial lakes. The work is based on a new and extensive set of data from 95 Swedish lakes and their catchment areas. Several empirical models based on catchment and lake morphometric parameters have been presented. These empirical models can only be used to predict mean values of these variables for lakes of the same type, and these models based on {open_quotes}geological{close_quotes} map parameters can evidently not be used for highly time-dependent and site-typical predictions. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating the mean values of the cluster variables were formulated and tested. Different statistical tests were used to separate random influences from causal. The most important {open_quotes}map parameters{close_quotes} were: the percent of rocks and open (=cultivated) land in the so-called near area to the lake [as determined with the drainage area zonation (DAZ) method], mean depth, linked to resuspension and the form and size of lakes, relief of the drainage area and lake area. Each of these variables only provides a limited degree of (statistical) explanation of the variability in mean annual values of pH and the water chemical cluster variables among the lakes. The predictability of some of the models can be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area. The variability in mean annual values of pH (and related variables) from other parameters, such as specific anthropogenic load, etc., may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these {open_quotes}geological{close_quotes} parameters. This paper also gives a simple method to estimate natural, preindustrial reference values of these water chemical variables from the presented models. 39 refs., 21 figs., 12 tabs.

  3. Quantifying and Predicting Outdoor Water Use in Los Angeles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2012-12-01

    Residential water consumption is the largest urban water user and represents the largest potential for conservation according to a peer-reviewed study by the Pacific Institute in California (2003). Outdoor water use represents a large percentage of the residential water budget but significant uncertainties are associated with current estimates and predictive models. The objectives of the current study are to analyze the spatial and temporal trends in outdoor use, determine correlations to climate and vegetation patterns, and establish key drivers of outdoor use in Los Angeles. Monthly individual water use records were acquired from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for the 2000 to 2010 period. Indoor use was estimated at the census tract level using a range of established models; with outdoor use then calculated as the residual between total and indoor use. The comparison of different estimates at the census tract level reveals significant variability between commonly-used outdoor use methods. Two of the Pacific Institute methods show that outdoor use percentages vary from 7%-10% to 60%-67% of total residential water use at the tract level across the City. A third tested method, based on average household size to model indoor use, presents a broader range of results, with outdoor use ranging from 2% to 93% of total water use. Climate variables, property characteristics as well as remotely-sensed vegetation indices and evapotranspiration estimates were also collected and aggregated at the census tract level for the same period. A linear regression model was developed using these variables to identify the key predictors of outdoor use for the study area. The residual and regression model estimates will serve to validate the development of a biophysical model including tree and grass cover areas, climate variables and high resolution evapotranspiration estimates. Ultimately, models will be used for predictions for a range of future climate and landscape scenarios. Finally, project results will inform water managers to implement efficient landscaping irrigation conservation strategies part of an integrated water resources management plan for sustainable regional water supply system in Southern California.

  4. Water Supply Network System Control based on Model Predictive Control

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Nagib G. N. Mohammed; Adel Abdulrahman

    2009-01-01

    An increasing demand for water due to population growth, industrial development and improvement of economic require management of water transfer and improve operation of water supply systems. This paper considers the application of a model predictive control (MPC) technique to improve the behavior of the water network supply system, to maintain stable operation of the water flow rate, and reduce

  5. Platelet Serotonin Level Predicts Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Platelet Serotonin Level Predicts Survival in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Luc Dupuis1,2 *, Odile. Methodology: Platelet and plasma unconjugated concentrations of serotonin and plasma 5-HIAA, the major: Platelet serotonin levels were significantly decreased in ALS patients. Platelet serotonin levels did

  6. Hydro static water level systems at Fermilab

    SciTech Connect

    Volk, J.T.; Guerra, J.A.; Hansen, S.U.; Kiper, T.E.; Jostlein, H.; Shiltsev, V.; Chupyra, A.; Kondaurov, M.; Singatulin, S.

    2006-09-01

    Several Hydrostatic Water Leveling systems (HLS) are in use at Fermilab. Three systems are used to monitor quadrupoles in the Tevatron and two systems are used to monitor ground motion for potential sites for the International Linear Collider (ILC). All systems use capacitive sensors to determine the water level of water in a pool. These pools are connected with tubing so that relative vertical shifts between sensors can be determined. There are low beta quadrupoles at the B0 and D0 interaction regions of Tevatron accelerator. These quadrupoles use BINP designed and built sensors and have a resolution of 1 micron. All regular lattice superconducting quadrupoles (a total of 204) in the Tevatron use a Fermilab designed system and have a resolution of 6 microns. Data on quadrupole motion due to quenches, changes in temperature will be presented. In addition data for ground motion for ILC studies caused by natural and cultural factors will be presented.

  7. Behavioral/Cognitive Glutamate and Choline Levels Predict Individual Differences

    E-print Network

    Behavioral/Cognitive Glutamate and Choline Levels Predict Individual Differences in Reading Ability 06520, 6Department of Communication Disorders, Southern Connecticut State University, New Haven that higher concentra- tions were associated with poorer performance). Correlations with behavioral scores

  8. Global levels of histone modifications predict prognosis in different cancers.

    PubMed

    Seligson, David B; Horvath, Steve; McBrian, Matthew A; Mah, Vei; Yu, Hong; Tze, Sheila; Wang, Qun; Chia, David; Goodglick, Lee; Kurdistani, Siavash K

    2009-05-01

    Cancer cells exhibit alterations in histone modification patterns at individual genes and globally at the level of single nuclei in individual cells. We demonstrated previously that lower global/cellular levels of histone H3 lysine 4 dimethylation (H3K4me2) and H3K18 acetylation (ac) predict a higher risk of prostate cancer recurrence. Here we show that the cellular levels of both H3K4me2 and H3K18ac also predict clinical outcome in both lung and kidney cancer patients, with lower levels predicting significantly poorer survival probabilities in both cancer groups. We also show that lower cellular levels of H3K9me2, a modification associated with both gene activity and repression, is also prognostic of poorer outcome for individuals with either prostate or kidney cancers. The predictive power of these histone modifications was independent of tissue-specific clinicopathological variables, the proliferation marker Ki-67, or a p53 tumor suppressor mutation. Chromatin immunoprecipitation experiments indicated that the lower cellular levels of histone modifications in more aggressive cancer cell lines correlated with lower levels of modifications at DNA repetitive elements but not with gene promoters across the genome. Our results suggest that lower global levels of histone modifications are predictive of a more aggressive cancer phenotype, revealing a surprising commonality in prognostic epigenetic patterns of adenocarcinomas of different tissue origins. PMID:19349354

  9. Global Levels of Histone Modifications Predict Prognosis in Different Cancers

    PubMed Central

    Seligson, David B.; Horvath, Steve; McBrian, Matthew A.; Mah, Vei; Yu, Hong; Tze, Sheila; Wang, Qun; Chia, David; Goodglick, Lee; Kurdistani, Siavash K.

    2009-01-01

    Cancer cells exhibit alterations in histone modification patterns at individual genes and globally at the level of single nuclei in individual cells. We demonstrated previously that lower global/cellular levels of histone H3 lysine 4 dimethylation (H3K4me2) and H3K18 acetylation (ac) predict a higher risk of prostate cancer recurrence. Here we show that the cellular levels of both H3K4me2 and H3K18ac also predict clinical outcome in both lung and kidney cancer patients, with lower levels predicting significantly poorer survival probabilities in both cancer groups. We also show that lower cellular levels of H3K9me2, a modification associated with both gene activity and repression, is also prognostic of poorer outcome for individuals with either prostate or kidney cancers. The predictive power of these histone modifications was independent of tissue-specific clinicopathological variables, the proliferation marker Ki-67, or a p53 tumor suppressor mutation. Chromatin immunoprecipitation experiments indicated that the lower cellular levels of histone modifications in more aggressive cancer cell lines correlated with lower levels of modifications at DNA repetitive elements but not with gene promoters across the genome. Our results suggest that lower global levels of histone modifications are predictive of a more aggressive cancer phenotype, revealing a surprising commonality in prognostic epigenetic patterns of adenocarcinomas of different tissue origins. PMID:19349354

  10. Development and evaluation of a water level proportional water sampler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, P.; Lange, A.; Doppler, T.

    2013-12-01

    We developed and adapted a new type of sampler for time-integrated, water level proportional water quality sampling (e.g. nutrients, contaminants and stable isotopes). Our samplers are designed for sampling small to mid-size streams based on the law of Hagen-Poiseuille, where a capillary (or a valve) limits the sampling aliquot by reducing the air flux out of a submersed plastic (HDPE) sampling container. They are good alternatives to battery-operated automated water samplers when working in remote areas, or at streams that are characterized by pronounced daily discharge variations such as glacier streams. We evaluated our samplers against standard automated water samplers (ISCO 2900 and ISCO 6712) during the snowmelt in the Black Forest and the Alps and tested them in remote glacial catchments in Iceland, Switzerland and Kyrgyzstan. The results clearly showed that our samplers are an adequate tool for time-integrated, water level proportional water sampling at remote test sites, as they do not need batteries, are relatively inexpensive, lightweight, and compact. They are well suited for headwater streams - especially when sampling for stable isotopes - as the sampled water is perfectly protected against evaporation. Moreover, our samplers have a reduced risk of icing in cold environments, as they are installed submersed in water, whereas automated samplers (typically installed outside the stream) may get clogged due to icing of hoses. Based on this study, we find these samplers to be an adequate replacement for automated samplers when time-integrated sampling or solute load estimates are the main monitoring tasks.

  11. High Temperature, High Pressure Water Level Sensor

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. N. Miller; R. L. Anderson; S. C. Rogers; L. C. Lynnworth; W. B. Studley; W. R. Wade

    1980-01-01

    A sensor was developed to measure water level over a range of 750 mm with an uncertainty of +- 20 mm at a temperature from 20 to 250°C and pressure up to 15.2 MPa. The sensor is type 304, flattened stainless steel rod. Its cross section is 1.6 x 3.2 mm, and its measured torsional transit time is a function

  12. Statistical model predicts shoreline erosion rates due to sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2011-12-01

    While sea level rise in the face of global warming is a well-acknowledged threat, providing estimates of the local impact—the information needed by planners to develop effective strategies against the rising waters—has been difficult. Many attempts treat the global ocean as a giant bathtub, where increased water volume simply rises up and floods the land. Understandably, these approaches fall short of accurately estimating the impact of storms, sea level rise, and human influence on coastlines. The next extension toward an accurate longterm prediction of shoreline change necessarily includes a representation of the dynamic interaction between coastal features and the rising water.

  13. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltrat...

  14. An empirical study on sea water quality prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Evaggelos V. Hatzikos; Grigorios Tsoumakas; George Tzanis; Nick Bassiliades; Ioannis P. Vlahavas

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the problem of predicting future values for a number of water quality variables, based on measurements from under-water sensors. It performs both exploratory and automatic analysis of the collected data with a variety of linear and nonlinear modeling methods. The paper investigates issues, such as the ability to predict future values for a varying number of days

  15. GNSS-Reflectometry based water level monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckheinrich, Jamila; Schön, Steffen; Beyerle, Georg; Apel, Heiko; Semmling, Maximilian; Wickert, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Due to climate changing conditions severe changes in the Mekong delta in Vietnam have been recorded in the last years. The goal of the German Vietnamese WISDOM (Water-related Information system for the Sustainable Development Of the Mekong Delta) project is to build an information system to support and assist the decision makers, planners and authorities for an optimized water and land management. One of WISDOM's tasks is the flood monitoring of the Mekong delta. Earth reflected L-band signals from the Global Navigation Satellite System show a high reflectivity on water and ice surfaces or on wet soil so that GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) could contribute to monitor the water level in the main streams of the Mekong delta complementary to already existing monitoring networks. In principle, two different GNSS-R methods exist: the code- and the phase-based one. As the latter being more accurate, a new generation of GORS (GNSS Occultation, Reflectometry and Scatterometry) JAVAD DELTA GNSS receiver has been developed with the aim to extract precise phase observations. In a two week lasting measurement campaign, the receiver has been tested and several reflection events at the 150-200 m wide Can Tho river in Vietnam have been recorded. To analyze the geometrical impact on the quantity and quality of the reflection traces two different antennas height were tested. To track separately the direct and the reflected signal, two antennas were used. To derive an average height of the water level, for a 15 min observation interval, a phase model has been developed. Combined with the coherent observations, the minimum slope has been calculated based on the Least- Squares method. As cycle slips and outliers will impair the results, a preprocessing of the data has been performed. A cycle slip detection strategy that allows for automatic detection, identification and correction is proposed. To identify outliers, the data snooping method developed by Baarda 1968 is used. In this context, issues related to the stochastic modeling of GPS observations are addressed and a first model is proposed. First results of water level derivation with precisions below decimeter level are presented. These results could then be used as an approximation for the next computation step: the ambiguities fixing.

  16. Water Level Detection from Video with Fir Filtering

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Masahiro Iwahashi; Sakol Udomsiri

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes how to detect water level from a video signal for use of automatic river surveillance. The water level is recognized as a boundary line between the land region and the water region. A conventional method uses a \\

  17. AUTOMATED WATER LEVEL MEASUREMENTS IN SMALL-DIAMETER AQUIFER TUBES

    SciTech Connect

    PETERSEN SW; EDRINGTON RS; MAHOOD RO; VANMIDDLESWORTH PE

    2011-01-14

    Groundwater contaminated with hexavalent chromium, strontium-90, and uranium discharges into the Columbia River along approximately 16 km (10 mi) of the shoreline. Various treatment systems have and will continue to be implemented to eliminate the impact of Hanford Site contamination to the river. To optimize the various remediation strategies, it is important to understand interactions between groundwater and the surface water of the Columbia River. An automated system to record water levels in aquifer sampling tubes installed in the hyporheic zone was designed and tested to (1) gain a more complete understanding of groundwater/river water interactions based on gaining and losing conditions ofthe Columbia River, (2) record and interpret data for consistent and defensible groundwater/surface water conceptual models that may be used to better predict subsurface contaminant fate and transport, and (3) evaluate the hydrodynamic influence of extraction wells in an expanded pump-and-treat system to optimize the treatment system. A system to measure water levels in small-diameter aquifer tubes was designed and tested in the laboratory and field. The system was configured to allow manual measurements to periodically calibrate the instrument and to permit aquifer tube sampling without removing the transducer tube. Manual measurements were collected with an e-tape designed and fabricated especially for this test. Results indicate that the transducer system accurately records groundwater levels in aquifer tubes. These data are being used to refine the conceptual and numeric models to better understand interactions in the hyporheic zone of the Columbia River and the adjacent river water and groundwater, and changes in hydrochemistry relative to groundwater flux as river water recharges the aquifer and then drains back out in response to changes in the river level.

  18. Water-level fluctuations in North American prairie wetlands

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Arnold G. van der. Valk

    2005-01-01

    Oscillatory water-level fluctuations are reversible changes in water levels around a long-term mean. Long-term water-level studies in wetlands in the prairie pothole region of North America and proxy data (e.g., tree rings) for water levels in this region indicate that oscillatory water-level fluctuations have occurred for thousands of years. Because there has been no standard set of terms to describe

  19. The response of mire vegetation to water level drawdown

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurki, Kirsi; Laine, Jukka; Vasander, Harri; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina

    2010-05-01

    Mires have a significant role in climate change mitigation due to their enormous carbon storage and due to the fluxes of greenhouse gases between ecosystem and the atmosphere. Mire vegetation is controlled by ecohydrology, climate and by the competition of plants on light and nutrients. The water logged conditions create a challenging environment for both vascular plants and bryophytes; therefore majority of plants growing in these habitats are highly specialized. Global warming is predicted to affect mire vegetation indirectly through increased evapotranspiration leading to decreased water table levels down to 14-22 centimeters. Water level drawdown is likely to affect the vegetation composition and consequently the ecosystem functioning of mires. Previous studies covering the first years following water table level drawdown have shown that vascular plants benefit from a lower water table and hollow-specific Sphagnum species suffer. In addition to changes in plant abundances the diversity of plant communities decreases. The lawn and hollow communities of Sphagna and sedges are found to be the most sensitive plant groups. It has been shown that surveys on vegetation changes can have different results depending on the time scale. The short and long term responses are likely vary in heterogenous mire vegetation; therefore predictions can be done more reliably with longer surveys. We applied BACI (before-after-control-impact) experimental approach to study the responses of different functional mire plant groups to water level drawdown. There are 3 control plots, 3 treatment plots with moderate water level drawdown and 3 plots drained for forestry 40 years ago as a reference. The plots are located in meso-, oligo- and ombrotrophic sites in Lakkasuo (Orivesi, Finland). The vegetation was surveyed from permanent sampling points before ditching in 2000 and during the years 2001-2003 and 2009. The data was analyzed with NMDS (PC-Ord) and DCA (CANOCO). Overall results show that the control and treatment plots were similar before the treatment which is crucial in studies conducted with BACI- experimental design. The vegetation composition in the varied between the years also in the control plots following variation in weather conditions, i.e., growing season temperature and precipitation. The year 2003 stood out with lowest water table levels and with highest coverage of the evergreen vascular plants in all plots. By 2009 there was a dramatic decrease in sedge species cover. There seems to be more changes in bryophyte cover in mesotrophic sites than in ombrotrophic ones. Especially lawn-specific Sphagnum responded to water level drawdown. To quantify the impact of water level drawdown for different plant groups we used Principal Response Curves (CANOCO). Results show that all plant groups have a different short and long term response to water level drawdown. The first three years after ditching appeared to be a disturbance state. Only after that the vegetation started to adapt to the lowered water table conditions.

  20. Hydrostatic Water Level Systems At Homestake DUSEL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    Two arrays of Fermilab-style hydrostatic water level sensors have been installed in the former Homestake gold mine in Lead, SD, the site of the new Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL). Sensors were constructed at Fermilab from 8.5 cm diameter PVC pipe (housing) that was sealed on the ends and fit with a proximity sensor. The instrument have a height of 10 cm. Two ports in each sensor housing provide for connectivity, the upper port for air and the bottom port for water. Multiple instruments connected in series provide a precise water level and differences in readings between successive sensors provide for ground tilt to be resolved. Sensor resolution is 5 ?m per count and has a range of approximately 1.25 cm. Data output from each sensor is relayed to a Fermilab-constructed readout card that also has temperature/relative humidity and barometric pressure sensors connected. All data are relayed out of the mine by fiber optic cable and can be recorded by Ethernet at remote locations. The current arrays have been installed on the 2000-ft level (610 m) and consist of six instruments in each array. Three sensors were placed in a N-S oriented drift and three in an E-W oriented drift. Using this orientation, it is anticipated that tilt direction may be resolved in addition to overall tilt magnitude. To date the data show passage of earth tides and frequency analysis has revealed five components to this signal, three associated with the semi-diurnal (~12.4 hr) and two with the diurnal (~24.9 hr) tides. Currently, installation methods are being analyzed between concrete pillar and rib-mounting using the existing setup on the 2000-ft level. Using these results, two additional arrays of Fermilab instruments will be installed on the 4550-ft and 4850-ft levels (1387 and 1478 m, respectively). In addition to Fermilab instruments, several high resolution Budker tiltmeters (1 ?m resolution) will be installed in the mine workings in the near future, some correlated to Fermilab instruments (for comparative analysis) and others in independent arrays. All tiltmeter data will be analyzed with water reduction data (currently being collected from the #6 winze as the mine is dewatered) and data from rock stress/fracture experiments to document net ground settling due to dewatering, potential collapse of stope areas and renewed excavation activities.

  1. Predicting Chemical Parameters of River Water Quality from Bioindicator Data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sašo Džeroski; Damjan Demšar; Jasna Grbovi?

    2000-01-01

    We address the problem of inferring chemical parameters of river water quality from biological ones. This task is important for enabling selective chemical monitoring of river water quality. We apply machine learning, in particular regression tree induction, to biological and chemical data on the water quality of Slovenian rivers. Regression trees are constructed that predict values of chemical parameters from

  2. Predicting and understanding home garden water use

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Geoffrey J. Syme; Quanxi Shao; Murni Po; Eddy Campbell

    2004-01-01

    There is now substantial literature describing the importance of home gardens for a variety of quality of life variables such as avoidance of stress, recreation and personal and social identity. From a water resource management perspective it is reasonable to hypothesise that those households that gain the most personal benefits from their gardens will use more water. Consideration of the

  3. Tides and Water Levels: What are Tides?

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This tutorial is an overview of the complex systems that govern the movement of tides and water levels. The tutorial is content rich and presented in easy-to-understand language with many illustrative and interactive graphics to visually enhance the text. This page begins with what tides are while other linked pages cover What Causes Tides, Gravity, Inertia, and Bulges, Changing Angles and Tides, The Frequency of Tides, Tidal Variations, Types and Causes of Tidal Cycles, What Else Affects Tides, Monitoring the Tides, How are Tides Measured, and a page of references.

  4. A Machine Learning Approach to Pattern Detection and Prediction for Environmental Monitoring and Water Sustainability

    E-print Network

    de Freitas, Nando

    in water level need to be detected so that fish don't get trapped and die in shallow pools. AppearingA Machine Learning Approach to Pattern Detection and Prediction for Environmental Monitoring and Water Sustainability Michael Osborne mosb@robots.ox.ac.uk Roman Garnett rgarnett@andrew.cmu.edu Kevin

  5. Prediction of evaporation of defrosted water in refrigerator water trays

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Somchai Wongwises; Boonanan Anansauwapak

    2005-01-01

    The main concern of the present paper is to simulate the evaporation of defrosted water in domestic refrigerator water trays. The tray is assumed to be located above in vicinity to the compressor head, and part of the heat used to evaporate the water is heat from the compressor. The mathematical model is based on that of Bansal and Xie.

  6. VEHICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR PREDICTING MAXIMUM TRUCK ACCELERATION LEVELS

    E-print Network

    Rakha, Hesham A.

    VEHICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR PREDICTING MAXIMUM TRUCK ACCELERATION LEVELS by Hesham Rakha1 , Member, Setti, and Van Aerde 2 ABSTRACT The paper presents a simple vehicle dynamics model for estimating and deceleration behavior contradicts basic vehicle dynamics. It is not clear at this point if this difference

  7. Alternative implementations of two-level adaptive branch prediction

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tse-Yu Yeh; Yale N. Patt

    1992-01-01

    As the issue rate and depth of pipelining of high performance Superscalar processors increase, the importance of an excellent branch predictor becomes more vital to delivering the potential performance of a wide-issue, deep pipelined microarchitecture. We propose a new dynamic branch predictor (Two-Level Adaptive Branch Prediction) that achieves substantially higher accuracy than any other scheme reported in the literature. The

  8. Water level simulation in bays by spatial interpolation of tidal constituents, residual water levels, and datums

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hess, Kurt

    2003-03-01

    A new method of simulating total water level relative to a datum takes values at the tide gauges and spatially interpolates them throughout the region. The values at the gauges which are spatially interpolated are: (1) each tidal constituent's amplitude and (2) phase value; (3) the residual, or non-tidal, water level; and (4) the offset, which is either the difference between local mean sea level (MSL) and mean lower low water (MLLW), or a tidal datum (either MSL or MLLW) relative to the ellipsoid. The water level at any point is computed by summing the astronomic tide (computed from the interpolated constituents), the interpolated residual, and the interpolated offset. In addition, for a GPS-supported survey, the ellipsoidally referenced MLLW values can be spatially interpolated and used to determine MLLW depth. The spatial interpolation at the core of this method is carried out by the use of a set of weighting functions that quantify the local contribution from each of the shore gauges. The weighting functions are generated numerically by solving Laplace's equation on a grid. The new method of estimating total water levels relative to a datum is called tidal constituent and residual interpolation (TCARI). The TCARI method was tested for accuracy using post-processed kinematic GPS measurements of water level collected by NOS in Galveston Bay, Texas, and San Francisco Bay, California. The root mean square errors were estimated to be 8 cm for the Galveston Bay data and 9.2 cm for the San Francisco Bay data, which is approximately the error in the measurements.

  9. On-line hydraulic state prediction for water distribution systems

    E-print Network

    Whittle, Andrew

    This paper describes and demonstrates a method for on?line hydraulic state prediction in urban water networks. The proposed method uses a Predictor?Corrector (PC) approach in which a statistical data?driven algorithm is ...

  10. PREDICTING WATER QUALITY IN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The quality of a public water supply although acceptable when it leaves the treatment plant, may deteriorate before it reaches the user. Deterioration may be caused by either chemical or biological transformations or by a loss of system integrity. There have been a growing number...

  11. Predicted effects of a proposed water-resources management plan in the lower San Luis Rey River Valley, California, using digital ground-water flow models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Skrivan, James A.

    1976-01-01

    A proposed plan for water-resource management in the lower San Luis Rey River valley, Calif. has been evaluated using digital models of ground-water flow. Two projections of water-level changes and salt balance in 1977 were made. The first projection used 1972 climatic and pumping conditions. The second projection used these same conditions plus a plan of recharging and pumping various areas of the aquifer. The predicted salt balance in 1977 under the proposed plan improved for the Pala, Bonsall, and Mission basins when compared to the predicted 1977 salt balance using 1972 pumpage alone. The plan did not affect the predicted salt balance for the Pauma basin. Under the plan, water levels decreased in the Pala basin and water levels increased in the Bonsall and Mission basins. In addition, an area of potential water logging exists in the Mission basin. The plan did not affect water levels for the Pauma basin. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. A Simple, Inexpensive Water-Leveling Device for Ultramicrotomy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, Austin E.

    1978-01-01

    Describes a device for maintaining the proper water level in knife boats during ultramicrotomy. Water levels in troughs are adjusted rapidly and precisely during the cutting process. Illustrations are included. (Author/MA)

  13. Predicting parent–child interactions from children's activity level

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David M. Buss

    1981-01-01

    Examined the relationship between children's activity level and parent–child (P–C) interactions in 117 preschool children and their parents. Four P–C combinations (mother–daughter, father–daughter, mother–son, and father–son) were studied. Using R. Q. Bell's conceptualization of upper and lower limit parental control behavior, it was predicted that P–C interactions involving active children would be marked by more strife and conflict than P–C

  14. Ground-water levels in Anchorage, Alaska, 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glass, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Water-level data collected during 1985 for 146 Anchorage wells deeper than 40 feet are presented. Hydrographs of water levels in 20 wells for the period 1970 through 1985 are also given. The report describes groundwater conditions and seasonal fluctuations in water levels, and includes pumpage figures and well-construction data. (USGS)

  15. Secular Changes in Great Lakes Water Level Seasonal Cycles

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Frank H. Quinn

    2002-01-01

    The three primary scales of Great Lakes water level fluctuations are interannual, seasonal, and episodic. Of these three, the seasonal water level fluctuations have received relatively little attention. The Great Lakes water levels have a well defined seasonal cycle driven primarily by snowmelt in the spring and summer and lake evaporation in the fall and winter. The present average seasonal

  16. Recent and late quaternary changes in water level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walcott, R. I.

    1975-01-01

    Water level changes of both the Great Lakes and the sea are described along with methods of analyzing water level data. The influence of elastic deformation of the earth and viscosity is discussed. Causes of water level changes reviewed include: earth movements, geoid changes, storm surges or meteorological phenomena, and melting ice in Antarctica, Greenland, and the mountain glaciers.

  17. Formulation of a mathematical model to predict solar water disinfection.

    PubMed

    Salih, Fadhil M

    2003-09-01

    A mathematical model was formulated that will facilitate the prediction of solar disinfection by analyzing the effect of sunlight exposure (x(1)) and the load of bacterial contamination (x(2)), as predictor variables, on the efficiency of solar disinfection (y). Aliquots of 0.1 ml containing average numbers of E. coli, ranging between 1 and 5 x 10(3)cells/ml raw water, were introduced into each of the 96 wells of polystyrene microtitre plates. Plates, with the lid on, were exposed to sunlight for varying exposures ranging between 1.04 x 10(3) and 8.40 x 10(3)kJ m(-2). Double strength nutrient broth was then added. After 48 h incubation wells containing visible contamination were considered as containing one cell or more that survived the exposure. Data showed that disinfection is dependent both on the load of bacterial contamination and sunlight exposure. This relationship is characterized by curves having shoulders followed by a steep decline and then tailing off in an asymptotic fashion. The shoulder size increased with the increase of the contamination load, however, the slope remains the same. Statistical analysis indicates a positive correlation among the variables (R(2) = 0.893); the mathematical model, y=1-(1-e(-kx(1)))(x(2)), represents the relationship, with k being the solar inactivation constant. The exposure required to produce a given decontamination level can be predicted using the equation: x(1)=-1/kln[1-(1-y)(-1/x(2))]e(-micro/rho.m/A), where micro is the linear attenuation coefficient (m(-1)), rho is the density, m is the mass and A is the area of the exposed part of the sample. The predictor variables (x(1), x(2)) strongly influence the efficiency of solar disinfection, which can be predicted using the suggested mathematical model. The present data provides a means to predict the efficiency of solar disinfection as an approach to improve the quality of drinking water mainly in developing countries with adequate sunshine all year-round. PMID:12909111

  18. Predictive modelling of the mine water rebound in an old abandoned Dongwon mine in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, Hwanjo; Kim, Daehoon; Park, Seunghwan; Kim, Gyoungman

    2014-05-01

    The closure of over three-hundred deep coal mines in Korea since the late-1980s, primarily due to the energy and environmental concerns, has produced significant side effects. One of the major challenges is to assess the risk from mine water rebound to overlying aquifers and surface waters, which can produce significant environmental hazards. Some numerical models such as VSS-NET, GRAM and MODFLOW have been developed to predict the quantity, timing and location of discharges resulting from mine water rebound. In this study, we developed a GRAM-based windows program for mine water rebound modelling in abandoned deep mine systems. The program consists of the simulation engine and the GUI modules, each has several subroutines. Changes in mine water level of the Dongwon coal mine, presumably hydrogeologically connected to nearby old abandoned mines, has been monitored after the mine was finally closed in 2005. The water level in the vertical shaft rised up to 420m during the period of 3 years. The system was modelled as two ponds connected by a pipe. Input data include the areas of each pond, catchment areas, the storage coefficient, etc. The predicted changes in the mine water level was very similar to the observed data in the field. For this modelling, in fact, some of the input variable were roughly assumed to match the field data. Nevertheless, this program can be effectively applied to predict the rising of the mine water after the mine closure.

  19. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions, flood potential and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of water variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed. Future changes in water availability and drought risk are quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. For regions with lack of on-the-ground data we are field-testing low-cost environmental sensors and along with new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, integrating these into the system for improved monitoring and prediction. We provide an overview of the system and some examples of real-world applications to flood and drought events, with a focus on Africa.

  20. Drought-trigger ground-water levels and analysis of historical water-level trends in Chester County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schreffler, Curtis L.

    1996-01-01

    The Chester County observation-well network was established in 1973 through a cooperative agreement between the Chester County Water Resources Authority (CCWRA) and the U.S. Geological Survey. The network was established to monitor local ground-water levels, to determine drought conditions, and to monitor ground-water-level trends. Drought-warning and drought-emergency water-level triggers were determined for 20 of the 23 wells in the Chester County observation-well network. A statistical test to determine either rising or declining water-level trends was performed on data for all wells in the network. Water-level data from both of these wells showed a rising trend. A decrease in ground-water pumping in the area near these wells was probably the reason for the rise in water levels.

  1. Cerebrospinal fluid PKR level predicts cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Dumurgier, Julien; Mouton-Liger, Francois; Lapalus, Pauline; Prevot, Magali; Laplanche, Jean-Louis; Hugon, Jacques; Paquet, Claire

    2013-01-01

    The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of the proapoptotic kinase R (PKR) and its phosphorylated PKR (pPKR) are increased in Alzheimer's disease (AD), but whether CSF PKR concentrations are associated with cognitive decline in AD patients remain unknown. In this study, 41 consecutive patients with AD and 11 patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) from our Memory Clinic were included. A lumbar puncture was performed during the following month of the clinical diagnosis and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) evaluations were repeated every 6 months during a mean follow-up of 2 years. In AD patients, linear mixed models adjusted for age and sex were used to assess the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between MMSE scores and baseline CSF levels of A? peptide (A? 1-42), Tau, phosphorylated Tau (p-Tau 181), PKR and pPKR. The mean (SD) MMSE at baseline was 20.5 (6.1) and MMSE scores declined over the follow-up (-0.12 point/month, standard error [SE]?=?0.03). A lower MMSE at baseline was associated with lower levels of CSF A? 1-42 and p-Tau 181/Tau ratio. pPKR level was associated with longitudinal MMSE changes over the follow-up, higher pPKR levels being related with an exacerbated cognitive deterioration. Other CSF biomarkers were not associated with MMSE changes over time. In aMCI patients, mean CSF biomarker levels were not different in patients who converted to AD from those who did not convert.These results suggest that at the time of AD diagnosis, a higher level of CSF pPKR can predict a faster rate of cognitive decline. PMID:23320095

  2. Prediction of corrosion rates of water distribution pipelines according to aggressive corrosive water in Korea

    Microsoft Academic Search

    W. S. Chung; M. J. Yu; H. D. Lee

    The drinking water network serving Korea has been used for almost 100 years. Therefore, pipelines have suffered various degrees of deterioration due to aggressive environments. The pipe breaks were caused by in-external corrosion, water hammer, surface loading, etc. In this paper, we focused on describing corrosion status in water distribution pipes in Korea and reviewing some methods to predict corrosion

  3. Predicting Salmonella Populations from Biological, Chemical, and Physical Indicators in Florida Surface Waters

    PubMed Central

    McEgan, Rachel; Mootian, Gabriel; Goodridge, Lawrence D.; Schaffner, Donald W.

    2013-01-01

    Coliforms, Escherichia coli, and various physicochemical water characteristics have been suggested as indicators of microbial water quality or index organisms for pathogen populations. The relationship between the presence and/or concentration of Salmonella and biological, physical, or chemical indicators in Central Florida surface water samples over 12 consecutive months was explored. Samples were taken monthly for 12 months from 18 locations throughout Central Florida (n = 202). Air and water temperature, pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), turbidity, and conductivity were measured. Weather data were obtained from nearby weather stations. Aerobic plate counts and most probable numbers (MPN) for Salmonella, E. coli, and coliforms were performed. Weak linear relationships existed between biological indicators (E. coli/coliforms) and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1) and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1). The average rainfall (previous day, week, and month) before sampling did not correlate well with bacterial levels. Logistic regression analysis showed that E. coli concentration can predict the probability of enumerating selected Salmonella levels. The lack of good correlations between biological indicators and Salmonella levels and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels shows that the relationship between pathogens and indicators is complex. However, Escherichia coli provides a reasonable way to predict Salmonella levels in Central Florida surface water through logistic regression. PMID:23624476

  4. Regional Drinking Water Security District Level Pilot Project

    E-print Network

    Sohoni, Milind

    Regional Drinking Water Security District Level Pilot Project Concept Note Milind Sohoni Head. The central objective of the project will be to ensure regional drinking water security for a district for drinking water. · Supply and Logistics: To assist the rural drinking water department in various logistical

  5. Arsenic in Well Water Can Raise Level in Baby Formula

    MedlinePLUS

    ... this page, please enable JavaScript. Arsenic in Well Water Can Raise Level in Baby Formula: Study Researchers ... amounts low, but recommend testing privately supplied tap water (*this news item will not be available after ...

  6. Quantitative correction of influence of rain on well water level

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Zhao-Dong Zhang; Jie Geng; Yu-Bin Gao; Zhu-Gang Zhang

    1993-01-01

    In this paper a new method of the quantitative correction of influence of the rain on the water level in a well is given.\\u000a Using the faltung filtering and polynary regression, considering the effect of the rain on the well water level with the lag\\u000a “memory”, the correction of the influence of the rain on the well water level is

  7. Water-level fluctuations affect macrophyte richness in floodplain lakes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. J. Van. Geest; H. Wolters; F. C. J. M. Roozen; H. Coops; R. M. M. Roijackers; A. D. Buijse; M. Scheffer

    2005-01-01

    The characteristic ecology of floodplain lakes is in part due to their relatively strong water-level fluctuations. We analyzed the factors determining water-level fluctuations in 100 floodplain lakes (during non-flooded conditions) in the active floodplains of the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands. Furthermore, we explored the relationship between water-level fluctuations and macrophyte species richness, and analyzed the suitability of artificially created

  8. PERSPECTIVE FROM WATER LEVEL, SOUTHEAST BY 165 DEGREES. Wright's ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    PERSPECTIVE FROM WATER LEVEL, SOUTHEAST BY 165 DEGREES. - Wright's Bridge, Spanning Sugar River, former Boston & Maine Railroad (originally Concord & Claremont Railroad), Claremont, Sullivan County, NH

  9. Predicting Risk from Radon in Source Waters from Water Quality Parameters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Overall, 47 groundwater samples were collected from 45 small community water systems (CWSs) and analyzed for radon and other water quality constituents. In general, groundwater from unconsolidated deposits and sedimentary rocks had lower average radon levels (ranging from 223 to...

  10. Predicting Soil-Water Partition Coefficients for Cadmium

    E-print Network

    Sparks, Donald L.

    understand the mechanism of adsorption, the experimental results for the adsorption of Cd by the 15 soils with natural soil particles is complex, involving multiple mechanisms. Much of the work relating to trace metalPredicting Soil-Water Partition Coefficients for Cadmium S U E N - Z O N E L E E Department

  11. Adaptive predictive control of a boiling water reactor

    Microsoft Academic Search

    C. Lin; S. R. Chang

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on an adaptive predictive control system (APCS) is applied to the design of the recirculation and feedwater control systems of a boiling water reactor. The APCS uses the dead zone method to modify the adaptive law; thus, it is stable in the presence of unmodeled dynamics and bounded disturbances. Two single-input\\/single-output control systems are used instead of

  12. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

  13. Predicting tree water use and drought tolerance from leaf traits in the Los Angeles urban ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, G. P.; Scoffoni, C.; Sack, L.

    2013-12-01

    Urban green space provides a suite of valuable ecosystem services. In semiarid systems, like Los Angeles, trees rely primarily on irrigation water for transpiration. Managers may need to reduce irrigation associated with urban trees given climate change, urban expansion, and the steady decrease in available freshwater. While leaf and whole plant water relations have been extensively studied, we are only now gaining a detailed understanding of diverse leaf anatomical designs, and their use for predicting physiology and water use at landscape scale. For 50 diverse urban species, we quantified leaf anatomical and physiological traits important to tree drought tolerance and water use efficiency including turgor loss point, vein architecture, cellular anatomy, leaf mass per unit area, and petiole and leaf dimensions. We hypothesized detailed relationships to develop models relating leaf functional traits to tree water relations. These models provide key insights regarding the role of anatomical designs in leaf stress tolerance and water use efficiency. Additionally we predicted how traits measured at the leaf level would scale with existing data for individuals at the whole plant level. We tested our predictions by determining correlations between leaf level anatomical traits and drought tolerance. Additionally, we determined correlations between functional traits, physiology and water use, and the climate of origin for the urban species. Leaf level measurements will be valuable for rapid estimation of more difficult to measure whole plant water relations traits important at the landscape scale. The Los Angeles urban ecosystem can serve as a model for other semiarid system and provide more informed system wide water conservation strategies.

  14. Water levels in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Graves, R.P.; Goemaat, R.L.

    1998-09-01

    Water levels were monitored in 28 wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during 1995. Seventeen wells representing 18 depth intervals were monitored periodically, generally on a monthly basis, 2 wells representing 3 depth intervals were monitored hourly, and 9 wells representing 15 depth intervals were monitored both periodically and hourly. All wells monitor water levels in Tertiary volcanic rocks except one that monitors water levels in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Water levels were measured using calibrated steel tapes, a multiconductor cable unit, and/or pressure transducers. Mean water-level altitudes in the Tertiary volcanic rocks ranged from about 728 to about 1,034 meters above sea level during 1995. The mean water-level altitude in the well monitoring the Paleozoic carbonate rocks was about 753 meters above sea level during 1995. Mean water level altitudes were only an average of about 0.01 meters higher than 1994 mean water level altitudes. A single-well aquifer test was conducted on well UE-25 WT{number_sign}12 during August and September 1995. Well USW 0-2 was also pumped during October and November 1995, in preparation for single-well aquifer test at that well. All data were acquired in accordance with a quality-assurance program to support the reliability of the data.

  15. Impact of Plumbing Age on Copper Levels in Drinking Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Theory and limited practical experiences suggest that higher copper levels in drinking water tap samples are typically associated with newer plumbing systems, and levels decrease with increasing plumbing age. Past researchers have developed a conceptual model to explain the ?agin...

  16. Ensemble streamflow prediction adjustment for upstream water use and regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, Aris P.; Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

    2014-11-01

    Hydrologic model forecasts are commonly biased in watersheds where water use and regulation activities cause flow alterations. Furthermore, direct accounting of such biases in forecast preparation is impractical as the information required is extensive and usually unavailable. This article introduces a new method to characterize the aggregate flow alteration biases and associated uncertainty in watersheds with important but largely undocumented water use and regulation activities. It also uses these assessments to adjust the ensemble streamflow predictions at downstream locations. The method includes procedures to (a) detect the presence of significant upstream regulation and water use influences; (b) correct the ensemble streamflow predictions and associated uncertainty for any biases in periods when such influences are detectable; and (c) assess the adjusted forecast reliability improvements. Applications in three watersheds of the American River in California demonstrate that the new method leads to significant forecast skill improvements and is also readily applicable to other regions.

  17. Maternal Oral Bacterial Levels Predict Early Childhood Caries Development

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Gansky, S.A.; Weintraub, J.A.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Ramos-Gomez, F.J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To calculate the association of maternal salivary bacterial challenge (mutans streptococci [MS] and lactobacilli [LB]) from pregnancy through 24 months’ postpartum with child caries incidence (?1 cavitated or restored teeth) at 36 months. Materials & Methods: Dental, salivary bacterial, sociodemographic, and behavioral measures were collected at three- to six-month intervals from a birth cohort of low-income Hispanic mother-child dyads (N = 243). We calculated the relative child caries incidence, adjusted for confounding, following higher maternal challenge of MS (>4500 colony-forming units per milliliter of saliva [CFU/mL]) and LB (>50 CFU/mL) based on multivariable models. Results: Salivary MS and LB levels were greater among mothers of caries-affected children versus caries-free children. Mothers with higher salivary MS challenge were more likely to have MS-positive children (>0 CFU/mL), but maternal LB challenge was not a statistically significant predictor of child LB-positive status. Adjusting for sociodemographics, feeding and care practices, and maternal dental status, higher maternal salivary challenge of both MS and LB over the study period predicted nearly double the child caries incidence versus lower MS and LB (cumulative incidence ratio: 1.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 3.8). Conclusion: Maternal salivary bacterial challenge not only is associated with oral infection among children but also predicts increased early childhood caries occurrence. PMID:24356441

  18. Ecology predicts levels of genetic differentiation in neotropical birds.

    PubMed

    Burney, Curtis W; Brumfield, Robb T

    2009-09-01

    Despite the theoretical link between the ecology and the population genetics of species, little empirical evidence is available that corroborates the association. Here, we examined genetic variation in 40 codistributed species of lowland Neotropical rain forest birds that have populations isolated on either side of the Andes, the Amazon River, and the Madeira River. We found widely varying levels of genetic divergence among these taxa across the same biogeographic barriers. Our investigation of the extent to which ecological traits predicted the amount of cross-barrier divergence revealed a strongly significant relationship between the forest stratum at which a species forages and the level of cross-barrier genetic differentiation. Canopy species had statistically lower genetic divergence values across the Andes and the two Amazonian rivers than did understory birds. We hypothesize that the association reflects an effect of dispersal propensity, which is greater in canopy birds, on the movement of alleles among demes (i.e., migration) and, consequently, on the interdemic proportion of the genetic variance. Differences in dispersal propensity may also explain the observation that understory species contain a significantly greater number of subspecies than do canopy species. This result indicates that higher rates of diversification may occur in lineages with lower dispersal propensity. PMID:19627230

  19. A siphon gage for monitoring surface-water levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCobb, T.D.; LeBlanc, D.R.; Socolow, R.S.

    1999-01-01

    A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold regions cause discontinuity and inaccuracy in the data collected. Installation and field testing of a siphon gage using 0.75-in-diameter polyethylene tubing at Ashumet Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, demonstrated that the siphon gage can provide long-term data with a field effort and accuracy equivalent to measurement of ground-water levels at an observation well.A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold regions cause discontinuity and inaccuracy in the data collected. Installation and field testing of a siphon gage using 0.75-in-diameter polyethylene tubing at Ashumet Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, demonstrated that the siphon gage can provide long-term data with a field effort and accuracy equivalent to measurement of ground-water levels at an observation well.

  20. STORM WATER POLLUTION PREVENTION PLAN (RISK LEVEL 1)

    E-print Network

    Eisen, Michael

    STORM WATER POLLUTION PREVENTION PLAN (RISK LEVEL 1) for BUILDING 90 USER TEST BED FACILITY.G., GEOLOGIST/QSD (530) 222-4339 SWPPP Preparation Date: JUNE 10, 2012 #12;Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan) 222-4339 Name and Title Telephone Number #12;Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan Building 90 User

  1. Optical Water-Level Sensors using Fiber Bragg Grating Technology

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Keisuke Fukuchi; Seiji Kojima; Yasuyuki Hishida; Shinya Ishi

    2002-01-01

    We developed an optical high-precision water-level sensors based on fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technology. The sensors can be applied to measure the water levels of rivers, lakes, and sewage systems. The sensor head consists of a diaphragm, a customized Bourdon tube and two FBGs, one for tensile measurement and the other for temperature compensation. The FBG attached to the Bourdon

  2. Mine Water Level Fuzzy Control System Design Based on PLC

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Guimei Wang; Hui Song; Qingna Niu

    2009-01-01

    In the coal mine water level control systems, because the variables are non-linear, time lagged and uncertain, it is not possible to establish the mathematical model precisely. This article combines the intelligent control with the traditional automatic control device. According to the principle of the fuzzy control and the characteristic of PLC, designing the mine water level fuzzy control system,

  3. Predicting and mapping soil available water capacity in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Suk Young; Han, Kyung Hwa; Kim, Yihyun; Lee, Kyungdo

    2013-01-01

    The knowledge on the spatial distribution of soil available water capacity at a regional or national extent is essential, as soil water capacity is a component of the water and energy balances in the terrestrial ecosystem. It controls the evapotranspiration rate, and has a major impact on climate. This paper demonstrates a protocol for mapping soil available water capacity in South Korea at a fine scale using data available from surveys. The procedures combined digital soil mapping technology with the available soil map of 1:25,000. We used the modal profile data from the Taxonomical Classification of Korean Soils. The data consist of profile description along with physical and chemical analysis for the modal profiles of the 380 soil series. However not all soil samples have measured bulk density and water content at ?10 and ?1500 kPa. Thus they need to be predicted using pedotransfer functions. Furthermore, water content at ?10 kPa was measured using ground samples. Thus a correction factor is derived to take into account the effect of bulk density. Results showed that Andisols has the highest mean water storage capacity, followed by Entisols and Inceptisols which have loamy texture. The lowest water retention is Entisols which are dominated by sandy materials. Profile available water capacity to a depth of 1 m was calculated and mapped for Korea. The western part of the country shows higher available water capacity than the eastern part which is mountainous and has shallower soils. The highest water storage capacity soils are the Ultisols and Alfisols (mean of 206 and 205 mm, respectively). Validation of the maps showed promising results. The map produced can be used as an indication of soil physical quality of Korean soils. PMID:23646290

  4. Predicting water quality data in an unfilled reservoir using microcosm sediment-water simulation

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Douglas Craft

    1985-01-01

    The technique of microcosm sediment-water simulation was used to obtain predictive water quality data for the proposed Jordanelle Reservoir, Heber City, Utah. Sediment-water microcosms were prepared for four sites located in the north arm of the reservoir basin, including two sites located in an abandoned acid mine tailings pond. Data obtained from the tailings pond microcosms indicated that low pH

  5. Potential Seasonal Predictability of the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; DelSole, T. M.; Houser, P. R.

    2011-12-01

    The potential predictability of seasonal means of water cycle components, specifically precipitation and evaporation, are estimated using recently developed methods based on Analysis of Covariance (ANOCOVA) and the bootstrap, and the previous methods proposed by Katz (KZ), Shukla-Gutzler (SG) and Madden (MN). The ANOCOVA method has the advantage of not only taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. The second method is based on the bootstrap technique that makes few assumptions about physical process, model structure and underlying distribution. The essence of the bootstrap is to randomly resample the daily time series to build up an empirical distribution of the variance of seasonal means under the null hypothesis that seasonal mean is independent of year. The predictability of the observed precipitation estimated by ANOCOVA, the bootstrap and KZ reveals similar spatial distribution patterns: large fraction of predictable variance (FPV) in tropics and low FPV over extatropics where interannual variability is not significantly distinguished from the weather noise. There are more regions identified potentially predictable in December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM) than in June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON). The ANOCOVA method exhibits the highest predictability of the three methods and is close to the bootstrap, while KZ shows the smallest FPV due to the dominance of noise. Seasonal evaporation over global land from ANOCOVA, bootstrap, SG and MN indicates that high predictability occurs predominately over tropical and southern mid-latitude land areas, and modest predictability occurs over North America and Europe. The potential predictability of evaporation also exhibits a prominent seasonal cycle with JJA and SON having the most predictable area. The bootstrap suggests that 58% of land is potentially predictable, the largest predictable area of the four methods. The ANOCOVA method also has larger FPV than SG and MN, while it generally produces estimates similar to those of the bootstrap. The predictable area suggested by MN barely exceeds 30% of the globe, the smallest area of predictable estimated among all the four methods.

  6. Water hammer prediction and control: the Green's function method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuan, Li-Jun; Mao, Feng; Wu, Jie-Zhi

    2012-04-01

    By Green's function method we show that the water hammer (WH) can be analytically predicted for both laminar and turbulent flows (for the latter, with an eddy viscosity depending solely on the space coordinates), and thus its hazardous effect can be rationally controlled and minimized. To this end, we generalize a laminar water hammer equation of Wang et al. (J. Hydrodynamics, B2, 51, 1995) to include arbitrary initial condition and variable viscosity, and obtain its solution by Green's function method. The predicted characteristic WH behaviors by the solutions are in excellent agreement with both direct numerical simulation of the original governing equations and, by adjusting the eddy viscosity coefficient, experimentally measured turbulent flow data. Optimal WH control principle is thereby constructed and demonstrated.

  7. Sea level rise and water storage on land

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Duc et al.

    Climate data was used to model the relationship between sea level rise and the loss of water stored in soils and snowpack on land. It was found that water stored on land did not make any lasting contribution to sea level rise during the 50 year period, although strong variation in precipitation and subsequent runoff, particularly in the tropics, caused sea level to fluctuate every ten years or so.

  8. Statistical and Biophysical Models for Predicting Total and Outdoor Water Use in Los Angeles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2012-04-01

    Modeling water demand is a complex exercise in the choice of the functional form, techniques and variables to integrate in the model. The goal of the current research is to identify the determinants that control total and outdoor residential water use in semi-arid cities and to utilize that information in the development of statistical and biophysical models that can forecast spatial and temporal urban water use. The City of Los Angeles is unique in its highly diverse socio-demographic, economic and cultural characteristics across neighborhoods, which introduces significant challenges in modeling water use. Increasing climate variability also contributes to uncertainties in water use predictions in urban areas. Monthly individual water use records were acquired from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for the 2000 to 2010 period. Study predictors of residential water use include socio-demographic, economic, climate and landscaping variables at the zip code level collected from US Census database. Climate variables are estimated from ground-based observations and calculated at the centroid of each zip code by inverse-distance weighting method. Remotely-sensed products of vegetation biomass and landscape land cover are also utilized. Two linear regression models were developed based on the panel data and variables described: a pooled-OLS regression model and a linear mixed effects model. Both models show income per capita and the percentage of landscape areas in each zip code as being statistically significant predictors. The pooled-OLS model tends to over-estimate higher water use zip codes and both models provide similar RMSE values.Outdoor water use was estimated at the census tract level as the residual between total water use and indoor use. This residual is being compared with the output from a biophysical model including tree and grass cover areas, climate variables and estimates of evapotranspiration at very high spatial resolution. A genetic algorithm based model (Shuffled Complex Evolution-UA; SCE-UA) is also being developed to provide estimates of the predictions and parameters uncertainties and to compare against the linear regression models. Ultimately, models will be selected to undertake predictions for a range of climate change and landscape scenarios. Finally, project results will contribute to a better understanding of water demand to help predict future water use and implement targeted landscaping conservation programs to maintain sustainable water needs for a growing population under uncertain climate variability.

  9. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  10. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    PubMed Central

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  11. Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

    SciTech Connect

    FA Spane, Jr.

    1999-12-16

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, as part of the Hanford Groundwater Monitoring Project, examines the potential for offsite migration of contamination within underlying aquifer systems. Well water-level elevation measurements from selected wells within these aquifer systems commonly form the basis for delineating groundwater-flow patterns (i.e., flow direction and hydraulic gradient). In addition, the analysis of water-level responses obtained in wells during hydrologic tests provides estimates of hydraulic properties that are important for evaluating groundwater-flow velocity and transport characteristics. Barometric pressure fluctuations, however, can have a discernible impact on well water-level measurements. These barometric effects may lead to erroneous indications of hydraulic head within the aquifer. Total hydraulic head (i.e., sum of the water-table elevation and the atmospheric pressure at the water-table surface) within the aquifer, not well water-level elevation, is the hydrologic parameter for determining groundwater-flow direction and hydraulic gradient conditions. Temporal variations in barometric pressure may also adversely affect well water-level responses obtained during hydrologic tests. If significant, adjustments or removal of these barometric effects from the test-response record may be required for quantitative hydraulic property determination. This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate barometric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

  12. The Constant Levelers: Water, Ice, and Gravity

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This site has information about the work of three of the agents of erosion in the Northern Cascade Range. Since much of the range is made up of exotic terrains that probably did not evolve on the same spot on the Earth as the present North Cascades, the geologists confine their view to some time since the earliest Tertiary. Within that time frame, they can speculatively recreate the North Cascade scene and ponder its erosional history. The erosional work of rivers has constantly been altered by volcanic activity and whatever drainage pattern was established. It was profoundly altered about 35 million years ago by the renewed volcanic activity of the Cascade Volcanic Arc. A section about how rivers erode describes differential erosion, stream capture, and base level. The section about glaciers explains how they are formed, how they do their work, and what is left behind. The section about the work of gravity focuses on creep and landslides.

  13. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model.

    PubMed

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A; Abera, Metadel K; Fanta, Solomon W; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-19

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus?×?domestica Borkh. cv. 'Jonagold') during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick's second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell's rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range (?> 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical deformation. PMID:25347182

  14. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A.; Abera, Metadel K.; Fanta, Solomon W.; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-01

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus?×?domestica Borkh. cv. ‘Jonagold’) during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick’s second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell’s rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range (?>?97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical deformation.

  15. Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan D.; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We estimate return periods and levels of extreme still water levels for the highly vulnerable and historically and culturally important small marsh islands known as the Halligen, located in the Wadden Sea offshore of the coast of northern Germany. This is a challenging task as only few water level records are available for this region, and they are currently too short to apply traditional extreme value analysis methods. Therefore, we use the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) approach. This originates from hydrology but has been used before in several coastal studies and is also currently applied by the local federal administration responsible for coastal protection in the study area. The RFA enables us to indirectly estimate return levels by transferring hydrological information from gauged to related ungauged sites. Our analyses highlight that this methodology has some drawbacks and may over- or underestimate return levels compared to direct analyses using station data. To overcome these issues, we present an alternative approach, combining numerical and statistical models. First, we produced a numerical multidecadal model hindcast of water levels for the entire North Sea. Predicted water levels from the hindcast are bias corrected using the information from the available tide gauge records. Hence, the simulated water levels agree well with the measured water levels at gauged sites. The bias correction is then interpolated spatially to obtain correction functions for the simulated water levels at each coastal and island model grid point in the study area. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, return water levels suitable for coastal infrastructure design are estimated continuously along the entire coastline of the study area, including the offshore islands. A similar methodology can be applied in other regions of the world where tide gauge observations are sparse.

  16. Trace-level mercury removal from surface water

    SciTech Connect

    Klasson, K.T.; Bostick, D.T.

    1998-06-01

    Many sorbents have been developed for the removal of mercury and heavy metals from waters; however, most of the data published thus far do not address the removal of mercury to the target levels represented in this project. The application to which these sorbents are targeted for use is the removal of mercury from microgram-per-liter levels to low nanogram-per-liter levels. Sorbents with thiouronium, thiol, amine, sulfur, and proprietary functional groups were selected for these studies. Mercury was successfully removed from surface water via adsorption onto Ionac SR-4 and Mersorb resins to levels below the target goal of 12 ng/L in batch studies. A thiol-based resin performed the best, indicating that over 200,000 volumes of water could be treated with one volume of resin. The cost of the resin is approximately $0.24 per 1,000 gal of water.

  17. Origin of elevated water levels encountered in Pahute Mesa emplacement boreholes: Preliminary investigations

    SciTech Connect

    Brikowski, T.; Chapman, J.; Lyles, B.; Hokett, S.

    1993-11-01

    The presence of standing water well above the predicted water table in emplacement boreholes on Pahute Mesa has been a recurring phenomenon at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). If these levels represent naturally perched aquifers, they may indicate a radionuclide migration hazard. In any case, they can pose engineering problems in the performance of underground nuclear tests. The origin of these elevated waters is uncertain. Large volumes of water are introduced during emplacement drilling, providing ample source for artificially perched water, yet elevated water levels can remain constant for years, suggesting a natural origin instead. In an effort to address the issue of unexpected standing water in emplacement boreholes, three different sites were investigated in Area 19 on Pahute Mesa by Desert Research Institute (DRI) staff from 1990-93. These sites were U-19az, U-19ba, and U-19bh. As of this writing, U-19bh remains available for access; however, nuclear tests were conducted at the former two locations subsequent to this investigations. The experiments are discussed in chronological order. Taken together, the experiments indicate that standing water in Pahute Mesa emplacement holes originates from the drainage of small-volume naturally perched zones. In the final study, the fluids used during drilling of the bottom 100 m of emplacement borehole U-19bh were labeled with a chemical tracer. After hole completion, water level rose in the borehole, while tracer concentration decreased. In fact, total mass of tracer in the borehole remained constant, while water levels rose. After water levels stabilized in this hole, no change in tracer mass was observed over two years, indicating that no movement of water out of the borehole is taking place (as at U- 19ba). Continued labeling tests of standing water are recommended to confirm the conclusions made here, and to establish their validity throughout Pahute Mesa.

  18. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  19. Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on seagrass will be necessary to inform management of these valuable coastal ecosystems. Models such as these will be important sources of information for management agencies, which require specific information on the likely impacts of sea level rise in coastal areas.

  20. Water Level Detection for Functionally Layered Video Coding

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Masahiro Iwahashi; Sakol Udomsiri; Yuji Imai; Shogo Muramatsu

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a new type of layered video coding especially for the use of monitoring a river or a water channel. A sensor node of the system decomposes a video signal into some components and produces a bit stream which is functionally separated into three layers. The first layer contains the minimum components effective for detecting water level. The

  1. Nitrate Levels in Drinking Water in Rural New York State

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kitty H. Gelberg; Lou Church; Gabrielle Casey; Matthew London; D. Sue Roerig; Jane Boyd; Marylee Hill

    1999-01-01

    To obtain an indication of the nitrate–nitrogen levels in drinking water in rural areas of upstate New York and the number of infants at risk for methemoglobinemia, 419 wells supplying drinking water to farms were tested. Farmers were identified through two programs run by the New York State Department of Health. The farmers were asked to complete a short questionnaire

  2. Responses of wetland plants to ammonia and water level

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ernest Clarke; Andrew H. Baldwin

    2002-01-01

    Constructed wetland systems receiving animal wastewater may enhance water quality when designed, operated, and maintained properly. In the case of wetlands designed to treat animal waste, system effectiveness may be limited by high ammonia concentrations and inundation, conditions that can adversely affect macrophytic vegetation. We conducted a 4-month greenhouse experiment to assess the impact of ammonia concentration and water level

  3. Geomorphological evidence of water level changes in Nepenthes Mensae, Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Pablo, Miguel Ángel; Pacifici, Andrea

    2008-08-01

    In the western sector of Nepenthes Mensae, Mars, there are some geomorphological features that could be related to a standing water sheet in the area, such as fluvial terraces, deltas and shorelines. A detailed analysis of these features reveals two variations in water level, probably related to tectonic processes, as suggested by the existence of a fissural volcano at this site.

  4. Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

    2013-07-01

    The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

  5. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Griffith, Simon C.

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival. PMID:25279258

  6. Applying periodic boundary conditions to predict open water propeller performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chao; Huang, Sheng; Chang, Xin; He, Miao

    2010-09-01

    Mathematical models of propellers were created that investigate the influence of periodic boundary conditions on predictions of a propeller’s performance. Thrust and torque coefficients corresponding to different advance coefficients of DTMB 4119, 4382, and 4384 propellers were calculated. The pressure coefficient distribution of the DTMB 4119 propeller at different sections was also physically tested. Comparisons indicated good agreement between the results of experiments and the simulation. It showed that the periodic boundary condition can be used to rationally predict the open water performance of a propeller. By analyzing the three established modes for the computation, it was shown that using the spline curve method to divide the grids can meet the calculation’s demands for precision better than using the rake cutting method.

  7. Army Study Improves Ability to Predict Drinking Water Needs

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    APS Communications Office (American Physiological Society Communications Office)

    2006-07-08

    The study, Â?Expanded prediction equations of human sweat loss and water needs,Â? appears in the online edition of the journal. The researchers are Richard R. Gonzalez, Samuel N. Cheuvront, Scott J. Montain, Daniel A. Goodman, Laurie A. Blanchard, Larry G. Berglund and Michael N. Sawka. The researchers are with the U.S. Army Research Institute of Environmental Medicine, except for Dr. Gonzalez, who is an adjunct professor at New Mexico State University. The American Physiological Society published the study. (The full link to the study appears at the bottom of the release.)

  8. A useful prediction variable for student models: cognitive development level

    E-print Network

    Massachusetts at Amherst, University of

    . These factors could be described as acquisition of new information, and the student's ability to retain old knowledge. Stat Lady (Shute, 1995) found that a six-hour pretest was predictive of student learning

  9. Effects of water turbidity and salt concentration levels on penetration of solar radiation under water

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, J.; Seyed-Yagoobi, J. (Texas A M Univ., College Station, TX (United States))

    1994-05-01

    Two large, outdoor tanks were constructed in order to investigate the effects of water turbidity and salt concentration levels at various depths of water on penetration of solar radiation. These experiments were followed by a laboratory investigation that measured spectral transmittance and the extinction coefficient of water at different salt concentrations and turbidity levels. Both the outdoor and laboratory results indicate that the salt concentration level does not significantly affect solar radiation penetration. However, water clarity, quantified in terms of the turbidity level, plays a critical role on the magnitude of the solar radiation penetration, with the effect of turbidity on penetration increasing with the depth of water. A best-fit model is developed that gives the solar radiation penetration as a function of turbidity level and depth of water.

  10. PLIO: a generic tool for real-time operational predictive optimal control of water networks.

    PubMed

    Cembrano, G; Quevedo, J; Puig, V; Pérez, R; Figueras, J; Verdejo, J M; Escaler, I; Ramón, G; Barnet, G; Rodríguez, P; Casas, M

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a generic tool, named PLIO, that allows to implement the real-time operational control of water networks. Control strategies are generated using predictive optimal control techniques. This tool allows the flow management in a large water supply and distribution system including reservoirs, open-flow channels for water transport, water treatment plants, pressurized water pipe networks, tanks, flow/pressure control elements and a telemetry/telecontrol system. Predictive optimal control is used to generate flow control strategies from the sources to the consumer areas to meet future demands with appropriate pressure levels, optimizing operational goals such as network safety volumes and flow control stability. PLIO allows to build the network model graphically and then to automatically generate the model equations used by the predictive optimal controller. Additionally, PLIO can work off-line (in simulation) and on-line (in real-time mode). The case study of Santiago-Chile is presented to exemplify the control results obtained using PLIO off-line (in simulation). PMID:22097020

  11. ELEVATED LEVELS OF SODIUM IN COMMUNITY DRINKING WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    A comparison study of students from towns with differing levels of sodium in drinking water revealed statistically significantly higher blood pressure distributions among the students from the town with high sodium levels. Differences were found in both systolic and diastolic rea...

  12. Numerical simulation of the impacts of water level variation on water age in Dahuofang Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xinwen; Shen, Yongming

    2014-11-01

    The transport timescales were investigated in response to water level variation under different constant flow rates in Dahuofang Reservoir. The concept of water age was applied to quantify the transport timescales. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). The model was calibrated for water surface elevation and temperature profiles from April 1, 2008 to October 31, 2008. Comparisons of observed and modeled data showed that the model reproduced the water level fluctuation and thermal stratification during warm season and vertical mixing during cold season fairly well. The calibrated model was then applied to investigate the response of water age to water level changes in Dahuofang Reservoir. Model results showed that water age increases from confluence toward dam zone. In the vertical direction, the water age is relatively uniform at upstream and stratifies further downstream, with a larger value at bottom layer than at surface layer. Comparisons demonstrated that water level variation has a significant impact on transport timescales in the reservoir. The impact of water level drawdown on water age is stronger at bottom layer than at surface layer. Under high flow conditions, the water age decreases 0-20 days at surface layer and 15-25 days at bottom layer. Under mean flow conditions, the water age decreases 20-30 days at surface layer and 30-50 days at bottom layer. Furthermore, the impact is minor in the upstream and increases further downstream. The vertical stratification of water age weakens as the water level decreases. This study provides a numerical tool to quantify the transport timescale in Dahuofang Reservoir and supports adaptive management of regional water resources by local authorities.

  13. J. Mol. Biol. (1997) 265, 445464 Predicting Conserved Water-mediated and Polar

    E-print Network

    1997-01-01

    J. Mol. Biol. (1997) 265, 445­464 Predicting Conserved Water-mediated and Polar Ligand Interactions 48824 on 13 non-homologous proteins, Consolv predicted the conservation ofUSA active-site water. Mispredictions typically involved water molecules predicted to be conserved that were displaced by a polar ligand

  14. Water-Level Monitoring in 2010 During water year 2010, groundwater levels were mea-

    E-print Network

    in New Jersey, Water Year 2010 Groundwater is one of the Nation's most important natural resources.S Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack designated 16 New Jersey coun- ties as natural disaster areas that provide near real-time data. The locations of the observation wells in New Jersey during the 2010 water

  15. Great Lakes Water Levels Bounce Back After Record Lows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-12-01

    Water levels in the Great Lakes have rebounded dramatically from historic lows in December 2012 and January 2013, though the levels still remain lower than average in some of the lakes, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said during a 20 November briefing. The low lake levels had hampered shipping and other commercial and recreational uses of the waterways.

  16. Prediction of corrosion rates of water distribution pipelines according to aggressive corrosive water in Korea.

    PubMed

    Chung, W S; Yu, M J; Lee, H D

    2004-01-01

    The drinking water network serving Korea has been used for almost 100 years. Therefore, pipelines have suffered various degrees of deterioration due to aggressive environments. The pipe breaks were caused by in-external corrosion, water hammer, surface loading, etc. In this paper, we focused on describing corrosion status in water distribution pipes in Korea and reviewing some methods to predict corrosion rates. Results indicate that corrosive water of lakes was more aggressive than river water and the winter was more aggressive compared to other seasons. The roughness growth rates of Dongbok lake showed 0.23 mm/year. The high variation of corrosion rates is controlled by the aging pipes and smaller diameter. Also the phenolphthalein test on a cementitious core of cement mortar lined ductile cast iron pipe indicated the pipes over 15 years old had lost 50-100% of their lime active cross sectional area. PMID:14982159

  17. High Level Saliency Prediction for Smart Game Balancing George Alex Koulieris

    E-print Network

    Mania, Katerina

    - der to investigate the impact of high level saliency on visual at- tention & gameplay. We conductedHigh Level Saliency Prediction for Smart Game Balancing George Alex Koulieris Technical University Cottbus Katerina Mania Technical University of Crete 1 High Level Saliency Predicting visual attention can

  18. Water uptake strategies of maize under varying levels of water stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Ploeg, M.; Gooren, H. P. A.; Bakker, G.; de Rooij, G. H.

    2009-04-01

    More frequent and intense droughts due to global climate change, together with an increasing agricultural water use emphasize the importance of understanding root water uptake under water-stressed conditions. While root water uptake is driven by potential gradients, measurement of soil water potentials was limited by the measurement range of water-filled tensiometers (-0.085 MPa). A recently developed polymer tensiometer (POT) can measure soil water potentials down to -1.6 MPa. Monitoring low soil water potentials in the presence of root water uptake may help gain knowledge of a plant's strategy to cope with water stress, and allows improved determination of local water stress levels in experiments. To investigate plant strategies that cope with water stress, soil water potentials were measured in the vicinity of maize roots in three lysimeters. The lysimeters received different irrigation amounts: an optimal irrigation gift (-0.05 < p < -0.02 MPa) and minimized irrigation to create moderate (minimum p = -0.45 MPa) and severe (minimum p = -0.80 MPa) water stress. Measured soil water potentials showed that the water stressed plants started to take up water from deeper soil layers, and continued to take up water under very dry conditions. This research was funded by the Dutch Technology Foundation (STW).

  19. RADIOLYTIC HYDROGEN GENERATION INSAVANNAH RIVER SITE (SRS) HIGH LEVEL WASTETANKS COMPARISON OF SRS AND HANFORDMODELING PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, C; Ned Bibler, N

    2009-04-15

    In the high level waste tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS), hydrogen is produced continuously by interaction of the radiation in the tank with water in the waste. Consequently, the vapor spaces of the tanks are purged to prevent the accumulation of H{sub 2} and possible formation of a flammable mixture in a tank. Personnel at SRS have developed an empirical model to predict the rate of H{sub 2} formation in a tank. The basis of this model is the prediction of the G value for H{sub 2} production. This G value is the number of H{sub 2} molecules produced per 100 eV of radiolytic energy absorbed by the waste. Based on experimental studies it was found that the G value for H{sub 2} production from beta radiation and from gamma radiation were essentially equal. The G value for H{sub 2} production from alpha radiation was somewhat higher. Thus, the model has two equations, one for beta/gamma radiation and one for alpha radiation. Experimental studies have also indicated that both G values are decreased by the presence of nitrate and nitrite ions in the waste. These are the main scavengers for the precursors of H{sub 2} in the waste; thus the equations that were developed predict G values for hydrogen production as a function of the concentrations of these two ions in waste. Knowing the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads in the waste allows one to predict the total generation rate for hydrogen in a tank. With this prediction a ventilation rate can be established for each tank to ensure that a flammable mixture is not formed in the vapor space in a tank. Recently personnel at Hanford have developed a slightly different model for predicting hydrogen G values. Their model includes the same precursor for H{sub 2} as the SRS model but also includes an additional precursor not in the SRS model. Including the second precursor for H{sub 2} leads to different empirical equations for predicting the G values for H{sub 2} as a function of the nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the waste. The difference in the two models has led to the questions of how different are the results predicted by the two models and which model predicts the more conservative (larger) G values. More conservative G values would predict higher H{sub 2} generation rates that would require higher ventilation rates in the SRS tanks. This report compares predictions based on the two models at various nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the SRS HLW tanks for both beta/gamma and for alpha radiation. It also compares predicted G values with those determined by actually measuring the H{sub 2} production from four SRS HLW tanks (Tanks 32H, 35H, 39H, and 42H). Lastly, the H{sub 2} generation rates predicted by the two models are compared for the 47 active SRS high level waste tanks using the most recent tank nitrate and nitrite concentrations and the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads for each tank. The predictions of the models for total H{sub 2} generation rates from the 47 active SRS waste were, for the most part, similar. For example, the predictions for both models applied to 25 tanks agreed within {+-}10% of each other. For the remaining 22 tanks, the SRS prediction was more conservative for 9 tanks (maximum 29% higher) and the Hanford prediction was more conservative for 13 tanks (maximum 19% higher). When comparing G values predicted by the equations presuming only alpha radiation or only beta/gamma was present the results were somewhat different. The results of predictions for alpha radiation, at the 47 current nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the SRS tanks indicated that all the SRS predictions were higher (up to 30%) than the Hanford predictions and thus more conservative. For beta/gamma radiation the predictions for both models agreed to {+-}10% for 18 of the combinations, the Hanford model predicted higher values (11 up to 17%) for 25 of the concentrations considered, and the SRS model predicted higher G values for the remaining two combinations (12 and 17%). For the four SRS tanks, where we compared measured G values to those predicted by the two differen

  20. Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Page, Juliet A.; Hobbs, Christopher M.; Plotkin, Kenneth J.; Stusnick, Eric; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

  1. Predicting Change in Eelgrass Distribution Due to Sea Level Rise

    EPA Science Inventory

    The eelgrass species Zostera marina is the dominant estuarine seagrass on the Pacific Northwest coast of North America and provides important ecosystem services and functions. The loss of eelgrass bed acreage due to environmental pressures is of world-wide concern, yet predicted ...

  2. Runtime Prediction of Service Level Agreement Violations for Composite Services

    E-print Network

    Rosenberg, Florian

    Stuttgart, Germany lastname@iaas.uni-stuttgart.de 3 CSIRO ICT Centre GPO Box 664 Canberra ACT 2601. For service providers, it is essential to prevent SLA violations as much as possible to enhance customer an approach for predicting SLA violations at runtime, which uses measured and estimated facts (in- stance data

  3. Smoking Cessation: Social Comparison Level Predicts Success for Adult Smokers

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Meg Gerrard; Frederick X. Gibbons; Michelle L. Stock

    2005-01-01

    The affiliation preferences of 151 adult heavy smokers who joined smoking cessation groups were assessed at the 1st group session and were then used to predict their smoking status 6 and 12 months later. Those who preferred to be in groups with other smokers who were having relatively little trouble quitting were more likely to be successful than were those

  4. A Methylmercury Prediction Too For Surface Waters Across The Contiguous United States (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Booth, N.; Lutz, M.; Fienen, M. N.; Saltman, T.

    2009-12-01

    About 20 years ago, researchers at a few locations across the globe discovered high levels of mercury in fish from remote settings lacking any obvious mercury source. We now know that for most locations atmospheric deposition is the dominant mercury source, and that mercury methylation is the key process that translates low mercury loading rates into relatively high levels in top predators of aquatic food webs. Presently, almost all US states have advisories for elevated levels of mercury in sport fish, and as a result there is considerable public awareness and concern for this nearly ubiquitous contaminant issue. In some states, “statewide” advisories have been issued because elevated fish mercury levels are so common, or the state has no effective way to monitor thousands of lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and streams. As such, resource managers and public health officials have limited options for informing the public on of where elevated mercury concentrations in sport fish are more likely to occur than others. This project provides, for the first time, a national map of predicted (modeled) methylmercury concentrations in surface waters, which is the most toxic and bioaccumulative form of mercury in the environment. The map is the result of over two decades of research that resulted in the formulation of conceptual models of the mercury methylation process, which is strongly governed by environmental conditions - specifically hydrologic landscapes and water quality. The resulting predictive map shows clear regional trends in the distribution of methylmercury concentrations in surface waters. East of the Mississippi, the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coast, the northeast, the lower Mississippi valley, and Great Lakes area are predicted to have generally higher environmental methylmercury levels. Higher-elevation, well-drained areas of Appalachia are predicted to have relatively lower methylmercury abundance. Other than the prairie pothole region, in the western US incessant regional patterns are less clear. However, the full range of predicted methylmercury levels are predicted to occur in western US watersheds. Lastly, although this map is being presented at the continental US scale, the principles used to generate the modeled results can easily applied to data sets that represent a range of geographic scales.

  5. High testosterone levels predict low voice pitchamong men

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James M Dabbs; Alison Mallinger

    1999-01-01

    We measured salivary testosterone levels and voice pitch, or fundamental frequency,among 61 male and 88 female college students. Higher levels of testosterone were significantlyassociated with lower pitched voices among males but not among females. The magnitude of theeffect was approximately the same as the magnitude of other relationships that have beenreported between testosterone and behavior. There are two plausible explanations

  6. Predicting Water Activity for Complex Wastes with Solvation Cluster Equilibria (SCE) - 12042

    SciTech Connect

    Agnew, S.F. [Columbia Energy and Environmental Services, Inc., Richland, WA 99354 (United States); Reynolds, J.G. [Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA 99354 (United States); Johnston, C.T. [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47906 (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Predicting an electrolyte mixture's water activity, i.e. the ratio of water vapor pressure over a solution with that of pure water, in principle reveals both boiling point and solubilities for that mixture. Better predictions of these properties helps support the ongoing missions to concentrate complex nuclear waste mixtures in order to conserve tank space and improved predictions of water activity will help. A new approach for predicting water activity, the solvation cluster equilibria (SCE) model, uses pure electrolyte water activities to predict water activity for a complex mixture of those electrolytes. An SCE function based on electrolyte hydration free energy and a standard Debye- Hueckel (DH) charge compression fits each pure electrolyte's water activity with three parameters. Given these pure electrolyte water activities, the SCE predicts any mixture water activity over a large range of concentration with an additional parameter for each mixture vector, the multinarity. In contrast to ionic strength, which scales with concentration, multinarity is related to the relative proportion of electrolytes in a mixture and can either increase or decrease the water activity prediction over a broad range of concentration for that mixture. The SCE model predicts water activity for complex electrolyte mixtures based on the water activities of pure electrolytes. Three parameter SCE functions fit the water activities of pure electrolytes and along with a single multinarity parameter for each mixture vector then predict the mixture water activity. Predictions of water activity can in principle predict solution electrolyte activity and this relationship will be explored in the future. Predicting electrolyte activities for complex mixtures provides a means of determining solubilities for each electrolyte. Although there are a number of reports [9, 10, 11] of water activity models for pure and binary mixtures of electrolytes, none of them compare measured versus calculated water activity for more complex mixtures. (authors)

  7. Predicted Transport Of Pyrethroid Insecticides From An Urban Landscape To Surface Water

    PubMed Central

    Jorgenson, Brant; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Macneale, Kate; Schlenk, Daniel; Scholz, Nat; Spromberg, Julann; Werner, Inge; Weston, Don; Young, Thomas M.; Zhang, Minghua; Zhao, Qingfu

    2014-01-01

    We developed a simple screening-level model of exposure of aquatic species to pyrethroid insecticides for the lower American River watershed (California, USA). The model incorporated both empirically derived washoff functions based on existing, small-scale precipitation simulations and empirical data on pyrethroid insecticide use and watershed properties for Sacramento County, California. We calibrated the model to in-stream monitoring data and used it to predict daily river pyrethroid concentration from 1995 through 2010. The model predicted a marked increase in pyrethroid toxic units starting in 2000, coincident with an observed watershed-wide increase in pyrethroid use. After 2000, approximately 70% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure in the watershed was associated with the pyrethroids bifenthrin and cyfluthrin. Pyrethroid applications for above-ground structural pest control on the basis of suspension concentrate product formulations accounted for greater than 97% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure. Projected application of mitigation strategies, such as curtailment of structural perimeter band and barrier treatments as recently adopted by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation, reduced predicted total toxic unit exposure by 84%. The model also predicted that similar reductions in surface water concentrations of pyrethroids could be achieved through a switch from suspension concentrate categorized products to emulsifiable concentrate categorized products without restrictions on current use practice. Even with these mitigation actions, the predicted concentration of some pyrethroids would continue to exceed chronic aquatic life criteria. PMID:24115122

  8. Hydrologic effects on water level changes associated with episodic fault creep near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.A.; Burford, S.S.; Riley, F.S.; Records, A.W.

    1989-01-01

    As part of the Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment, water level is monitored in a well 460 m from the main trace of the San Andreas fault on Middle Mountain, in the preparation zone of the anticipated Parkfield earthquake. The well configuration allows water level to be monitored in two fluid reservoirs at depths of 85 and 250 m below land surface. During 1987, water level changes were recorded during 12 of the 18 episodes of accelerated fault creep detected by a creep meter spanning the fault trace 750 m northwest of the well. The creep-related water level changes in the shallow reservoir have durations of less than 1 day, whereas in the deeper reservoir the changes persist for as long as 2 months. These data suggest that the transient nature of the water level changes in the shallow interval is due to vertical flow to the water table and is not evidence that creep events propagate past the well. -from Authors

  9. Perchlorate levels in soil and waters from the Atacama Desert.

    PubMed

    Calderón, R; Palma, P; Parker, D; Molina, M; Godoy, F A; Escudey, M

    2014-02-01

    Perchlorate is an anion that originates as a contaminant in ground and surface waters. The presence of perchlorate in soil and water samples from northern Chile (Atacama Desert) was investigated by ion chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry. Results indicated that perchlorate was found in five of seven soils (cultivated and uncultivated) ranging from 290 ± 1 to 2,565 ± 2 ?g/kg. The greatest concentration of perchlorate was detected in Humberstone soil (2,565 ± 2 ?g/kg) associated with nitrate deposits. Perchlorate levels in Chilean soils are greater than those reported for uncultivated soils in the United States. Perchlorate was also found in superficial running water ranging from 744 ± 0.01 to 1,480 ± 0.02 ?g/L. Perchlorate water concentration is 30-60 times greater than levels established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (24.5 ?g/L) for drinking. PMID:24165784

  10. Reduction in predicted survival times in cold water due to wind and waves.

    PubMed

    Power, Jonathan; Simões Ré, António; Barwood, Martin; Tikuisis, Peter; Tipton, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Recent marine accidents have called into question the level of protection provided by immersion suits in real (harsh) life situations. Two immersion suit studies, one dry and the other with 500 mL of water underneath the suit, were conducted in cold water with 10-12 males in each to test body heat loss under three environmental conditions: calm, as mandated for immersion suit certification, and two combinations of wind plus waves to simulate conditions typically found offshore. In both studies mean skin heat loss was higher in wind and waves vs. calm; deep body temperature and oxygen consumption were not different. Mean survival time predictions exceeded 36 h for all conditions in the first study but were markedly less in the second in both calm and wind and waves. Immersion suit protection and consequential predicted survival times under realistic environmental conditions and with leakage are reduced relative to calm conditions. PMID:25766418

  11. Daily water level by ENVISAT altimetry of the Amazon River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa, A. C.; Pereira, P.; Silva, J. S.; Calmant, S.; Seyler, F.

    2013-05-01

    Radar Altimetry is a remote sensing technique applied in order to obtain the level of water of the hydrological processes, mostly in remote regions such as in the Amazon basin. However, the altimetry satellites have a limitation in their temporal resolution, which in the case of ENVISAT is 35 days, which prevents the study of short-term hydrological events alert of floods and droughts and etc. Thus, a method of obtaining altimetric daily time series water level, based on a linear model of interpolation by optimization with multi-objective criteria was applied, using data from in situ on pluvial stations, along the Amazon River. The altimetry data validation show accurate results with a RMS of 11 cm, while the estimates carried out by the model obtained 63% of altimetric daily time series water level data with RMS less than 40 cm, thus allowing the use of altimetry data daily at various hydrological studies, hydrodynamic modeling and monitoring of extreme events.

  12. Optical water-level sensing systems using fiber Bragg grating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukuchi, Keisuke; Kojima, Seiji; Hishida, Yasuyuki; Hongo, Akihito

    2002-09-01

    We have developed the all optical high-precision water level sensors based on fiber Bragg grating (FBG) technique, which are applied for actual fields such as rivers, lakes, sewage systems and so on. The sensor head consists of a diaphragm, a customized Bourdon tube and two FBGs, one for tensile measurement and other for temperature compensation. The FBG attached to the Bourdon tube is strained as the water level increases, and causes center wavelength shift of the reflected light from the FBG, which is detected by the wavelength interrogation equipment composed of a tunable Fabry-Perot filer. We have achieved the sensor accuracy of +/- 0.1% F.S., i.e. +/- 1 cm in case of full measurement range of 10 m. Several sensor heads can be connected in series through one optical fiber and each water level at different places can be measured simultaneously by one wavelength interrogation equipment.

  13. Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

    EPA Science Inventory

    Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

  14. Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

    2014-04-01

    Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

  15. Water Quality and pH Levels in Aquatic Ecosystems

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    New Jersey

    2006-01-01

    In this fun and in depth hands-on experiment, learners test various liquid samples (distilled water, lemon juice, vinegar, and baking soda mixed with water) to determine their pH levels and identify each sample as either acid, base or neutral chemical. Then, over the course of several weeks, learners perform a number of tests and observe the affects of pH level on plants. The wrap up section of this activity discusses acid rain and its dramatic impact on aquatic animals, and tips for going further.

  16. Orion Crew Member Injury Predictions during Land and Water Landings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Charles; Littell, Justin D.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Tabiei, Ala

    2008-01-01

    A review of astronaut whole body impact tolerance is discussed for land or water landings of the next generation manned space capsule named Orion. LS-DYNA simulations of Orion capsule landings are performed to produce a low, moderate, and high probability of injury. The paper evaluates finite element (FE) seat and occupant simulations for assessing injury risk for the Orion crew and compares these simulations to whole body injury models commonly referred to as the Brinkley criteria. The FE seat and crash dummy models allow for varying the occupant restraint systems, cushion materials, side constraints, flailing of limbs, and detailed seat/occupant interactions to minimize landing injuries to the crew. The FE crash test dummies used in conjunction with the Brinkley criteria provides a useful set of tools for predicting potential crew injuries during vehicle landings.

  17. Watershed-level comparison of predictability and sensitivity of two phosphorus models.

    PubMed

    Sen, Sumit; Srivastava, Puneet; Vadas, Peter A; Kalin, Latif

    2012-01-01

    Buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and transport of P to nearby surface waters due to excessive, long-term application of poultry litter is an environmental concern in many poultry-producing states. Watershed models are often used to quantify soil and water quality impacts of poultry litter applications. However, depending on how P transport is simulated in watershed models, the anticipated impact could be quite different. The objective of this study was to determine the predictability and sensitivity of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) P model and a newly developed, state-of-the-art manure P model called SurPhos in a poultry litter-applied pasture watershed. A small, predominantly agricultural watershed in Randolph County, Alabama was used for this study. The SWAT model, calibrated for surface runoff and total stream flows (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.70 for both), was used to provide runoff inputs to the SurPhos model. Total dissolved P (TDP) exports simulated by the SWAT P and SurPhos models from the hay hydrological response units of the watershed were compared for different poultry litter application rates and different initial soil Solution P levels. Both models showed sensitivity to poultry litter application rates, with SWAT simulating linear and SurPhos simulating nonlinear increases in TDP exports with increase in poultry litter application rates. SWAT showed greater sensitivity to initial soil Solution P levels, which can lead to overestimation of TDP exports, especially at low poultry litter application rates. As opposed to the SurPhos model simulations and contrary to recent studies, SWAT simulated excessive accumulation of Solution P in the top 10 mm of soil. Because SurPhos appears to simulate P transport and build-up processes from manure-applied areas more accurately, this study suggests that SWAT be replaced by SurPhos to more accurately determine watershed-level effectiveness of P management measures. PMID:23099956

  18. Ensemble approach for projections of return periods of extreme water levels in Estonian waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri; Lagemaa, Priidik

    2014-12-01

    The contribution of various drivers to the water level in the eastern Baltic Sea and the presence of outliers in the time series of observed and hindcast water level lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using an ensemble of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. An example of such an ensemble is constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima (annual maxima and stormy season maxima) with a Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The ensemble involves projections based on two data sets (resolution of 6 h and 1 h) hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) and observed data from four representative sites along the Estonian coast. The observed data are transferred into the grid cells of the RCO model using the HIROMB model and a linear regression. For coastal segments where the observations represent the offshore water level well, the overall appearance of the ensembles signals that the errors of single projections are randomly distributed and that the median of the ensemble provides a sensible projection. For locations where the observed water level involves local effects (e.g. wave set-up) the block maxima are split into clearly separated populations. The resulting ensemble consists of two distinct clusters, the difference between which can be interpreted as a measure of the impact of local features on the water level observations.

  19. Temporal Models for Groundwater Level Prediction in Regions of Maharashtra Dissertation Report

    E-print Network

    Sohoni, Milind

    of models were developed-periodic, polynomial and rainfall models. While periodic and polynomial models capture trends on water levels in observation wells, the rainfall model explores the correlation between the rainfall levels and water levels. The periodic and polynomial models are developed only using

  20. Predicted trapped particle radiation levels for Tiros-N

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stassinopoulos, E. G.

    1972-01-01

    Vehicle encountered electron and proton fluxes were calculated for a set of nominal TIROS-N trajectories with new computational methods and new electron environment models. Temporal variations in the electron data were considered and partially accounted for. Estimates of energetic solar proton fluxes are given for the lifetime of the satellite at selected integral energies from 10 to 100 MeV. Field strength calculations were performed with an extrapolated model on the basis of linear secular variation predictions. Orbital flux integration results are presented in graphical and tabular form.

  1. Politics of innovation in multi-level water governance systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, Katherine A.; Coombes, Peter J.; White, Ian

    2014-11-01

    Innovations are being proposed in many countries in order to support change towards more sustainable and water secure futures. However, the extent to which they can be implemented is subject to complex politics and powerful coalitions across multi-level governance systems and scales of interest. Exactly how innovation uptake can be best facilitated or blocked in these complex systems is thus a matter of important practical and research interest in water cycle management. From intervention research studies in Australia, China and Bulgaria, this paper seeks to describe and analyse the behind-the-scenes struggles and coalition-building that occurs between water utility providers, private companies, experts, communities and all levels of government in an effort to support or block specific innovations. The research findings suggest that in order to ensure successful passage of the proposed innovations, champions for it are required from at least two administrative levels, including one with innovation implementation capacity, as part of a larger supportive coalition. Higher governance levels can play an important enabling role in facilitating the passage of certain types of innovations that may be in competition with currently entrenched systems of water management. Due to a range of natural biases, experts on certain innovations and disciplines may form part of supporting or blocking coalitions but their evaluations of worth for water system sustainability and security are likely to be subject to competing claims based on different values and expertise, so may not necessarily be of use in resolving questions of "best courses of action". This remains a political values-based decision to be negotiated through the receiving multi-level water governance system.

  2. Water-level changes (1975-1998) in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carlson, Carl S.; Phillips, Steven P.

    1998-01-01

    Antelope Valley is in the western part of the Mojave Desert in southern California, about 50 mi northeast of Los Angeles. Between 1975 and 1998, water levels in the valley have changed in response to a shift in ground-water use from agricultural to urban, declining in some areas and rising in others. A study to document these changes was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Antelope Valley Water Group. This report presents the water-level data and the changes that occurred during this study period.

  3. Effect of Increased Water Vapor Levels on TBC Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Pint, Bruce A [ORNL; Garner, George Walter [ORNL; Lowe, Tracie M [ORNL; Haynes, James A [ORNL; Zhang, Ying [Tennessee Technological University

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the effect of increased water vapor levels on thermal barrier coating (TBC) lifetime, furnace cycle tests were performed at 1150 C in air with 10 vol.% water vapor (similar to natural gas combustion) and 90 vol.%. Either Pt diffusion or Pt-modified aluminide bond coatings were applied to specimens from the same batch of a commercial second-generation single-crystal superalloy and commercial vapor-deposited yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) top coats were applied. Three coatings of each type were furnace cycled to failure to compare the average lifetimes obtained in dry O{sub 2}, using the same superalloy batch and coating types. Average lifetimes with Pt diffusion coatings were unaffected by the addition of water vapor. In contrast, the average lifetime of Pt-modified aluminide coatings was reduced by more than 50% with 10% water vapor but only slightly reduced by 90% water vapor. Based on roughness measurements from similar specimens without a YSZ coating, the addition of 10% water vapor increased the rate of coating roughening more than 90% water vapor. Qualitatively, the amount of {beta}-phase depletion in the coatings exposed in 10% water vapor did not appear to be accelerated.

  4. Factors Predicting Levels of Female Inmates’ Use of Psychological Services

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Erik Faust; Philip R. Magaletta

    2010-01-01

    The number of female inmates in state and federal correctional institutions has increased dramatically over the past several years. In addition to this overall increase in number, women have greater levels of mental health service use than men, both in the community and during incarceration. It is important to understand what factors are associated with varying amounts of mental health

  5. Predicting the Proficiency Level of Language Learners Using Lexical Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossley, Scott A.; Salsbury, Tom; McNamara, Danielle S.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores how second language (L2) texts written by learners at various proficiency levels can be classified using computational indices that characterize lexical competence. For this study, 100 writing samples taken from 100 L2 learners were analyzed using lexical indices reported by the computational tool Coh-Metrix. The L2 writing…

  6. Predicting Radon levels in homes based on geology

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Gayle Gleason

    By supplementing existing traditional labs on mineral and rock identification, and on interpreting geologic maps, and creating a lab time for analyzing data available on the web, the students will determine if indoor radon levels correlate best to bedrock geology or to glacial deposits in New York State.

  7. Prediction of Turbulent Jet Mixing Noise Reduction by Water Injection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kandula, Max

    2008-01-01

    A one-dimensional control volume formulation is developed for the determination of jet mixing noise reduction due to water injection. The analysis starts from the conservation of mass, momentum and energy for the confrol volume, and introduces the concept of effective jet parameters (jet temperature, jet velocity and jet Mach number). It is shown that the water to jet mass flow rate ratio is an important parameter characterizing the jet noise reduction on account of gas-to-droplet momentum and heat transfer. Two independent dimensionless invariant groups are postulated, and provide the necessary relations for the droplet size and droplet Reynolds number. Results are presented illustrating the effect of mass flow rate ratio on the jet mixing noise reduction for a range of jet Mach number and jet Reynolds number. Predictions from the model show satisfactory comparison with available test data on perfectly expanded hot supersonic jets. The results suggest that significant noise reductions can be achieved at increased flow rate ratios.

  8. Analysis of water level variations in Brazilian basins using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matos, A.; Blitzkow, D.; Almeida, F.; Costa, S.; Campos, I.; Barbosa, A.

    2012-01-01

    A comparison between daily in-situ water level time series measured at ground-based hydrometric stations (HS - 1,899 stations located in twelve Brazilian basins) of the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) with vertically-integrated water height anomaly deduced from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) geoid is carried out in Brazil. The equivalent water height (EWH) of 10-day intervals of GRACE models were computed by GRGS/CNES. It is a 6-year analysis (July-2002 to May-2008). The coefficient of determination is computed between the ANA water level and GRACE EWH. Values higher than 0.6 were detected in the following basins: Amazon, north of Paraguay, Tocantins-Araguaia, Western North-East Atlantic and north of the Parnaíba. In the Uruguay (Pampas region) and the west of São Francisco basins, the coefficient of determination is around 0.5 and 0.6. These results were adjusted with a linear transfer function and two second degree polynomials (flood and ebb period) between GRACE EWH and ANA water level. The behavior of these two polynomials is related to the phase difference of the two time series and yielded four different types of responses. This paper shows seven ANA stations that represent these responses and relates them with their hydro-geological domain.

  9. Global secular changes in different tidal high water, low water and range levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mawdsley, Robert J.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Wells, Neil C.

    2015-02-01

    Tides exert a major control on the coastal zone by influencing high sea levels and coastal flooding, navigation, sediment dynamics, and ecology. Therefore, any changes to tides have wide ranging and important implications. In this paper, we uniquely assess secular changes in 15 regularly used tidal levels (five high water, five low water and five tidal ranges), which have direct practical applications. Using sea level data from 220 tide gauge sites, we found changes have occured in all analyzed tidal levels in many parts of the world. For the tidal levels assessed, between 36% and 63% of sites had trends significantly different (at 95% confidence level) from zero. At certain locations, the magnitude of the trends in tidal levels were similar to trends in mean sea level over the last century, with observed changes in tidal range and high water levels of over 5 mm yr-1 and 2 mm yr-1, respectively. More positive than negative trends were observed in tidal ranges and high water levels, and vice versa for low water levels. However we found no significant correlation between trends in mean sea level (MSL) and any tidal levels. Spatially coherent trends were observed in some regions, including the north-east Pacific, German Bight and Australasia, and we also found that differences in trends occur between different tidal levels. This implies that analyzing different tidal levels is important. Because changes in the tide are widespread and of similar magnitude to MSL rise at a number sites, changes in tides should be considered in coastal risk assessments.

  10. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  11. Water quality prediction for recreational use of Kranji Reservoir, Singapore

    E-print Network

    Zhang, Yangyue

    2011-01-01

    Singapore has been making efforts in relieving its water shortage problems and has been making great progress through its holistic water management. Via the Active, Beautiful, Clean Waters (ABC Waters) Programme, Singapore's ...

  12. Prediction of Blood Glucose Levels in Diabetic Patients Using a Hybrid AI Technique

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jan John Liszka-Hackzell

    1999-01-01

    One of the problems in the management of the diabetic patient is to balance the dose of insulin without exactly knowing how the patient's blood glucose concentration will respond. Being able to predict the blood glucose level would simplify the management. This paper describes an attempt to predict blood glucose levels using a hybrid AI technique combining the principal component

  13. Fabrication tests of TRICOTH-type reactor water level sensor

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. Termaat; J. Kops; K. Ara; M. Katagiri; K. Kobayashi

    1990-01-01

    To study the feasibility of manufacturing a TRICOTH reactor water level sensor, a prototype structure design has been done and fabrication tests have been performed. The sensor consists of an Inconel sheath with a diameter of 3.2 mm, magnesia insulating material and inner elements (two heater wires and three sensing wires). The heater wires are made of Ni-Cr alloy, while

  14. TRIHALOMETHANE LEVELS IN HOME TAP WATER AND SEMEN QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Trihalomethane Levels in Home Tap Water and Semen Quality Laura Fenster, 1 Kirsten Waller, 2 Gayle Windham, 1 Tanya Henneman, 2 Meredith Anderson, 2 Pauline Mendola, 3 James W. Overstreet, 4 Shanna H. Swan5 1California Department of Health Services, Division of Environm...

  15. The Use of Labyrinth-Weirs for Water Level Control

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Adolf Tommy Sitompul; J. J. Sharp

    1995-01-01

    Labyrinth weirs have particular advantages for water level control in flat land. At low flows intake structures require a certain minimum depth but the maximum depth at high flows must be limited to prevent extensive upstream flooding. Typically this is achieved using a low weir surmounted by a controllable undershot gate that is closed at low flows and opened as

  16. Comparison Between Water Level and Precipitation in Rio Negro Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figliuolo, G. C.; Santos Da Silva, J.; Calmant, S.; Seyler, F.; Correia, F.; Oliveira, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Amazon Basin holds a lot of difficulties for providing data that enable regional researching works, because of its large extension and for having areas, whose access is very difficult. Remote sensing data presents an excellent way for monitoring the Amazon Basin and collecting data for researches. This current study aims matching radar altimetry data from the JASON-2, with the rainfall data from the TRMM satellite in order to analyze the relation between the water level and the precipitation in two different points along the Rio Negro Basin. After data analysis, it was possible noting a difference on the responding process for both regions. Whilst at the NEGRO_089_03 station (located in the city of São Gabriel da Cachoeira) the graphic of precipitation and water level were very similar, in NEGRO_063 station (located in the city of Manaus) the graphic showed a two month discrepancy due to the difference of the river's bottom size in both regions, at NEGRO_089_03's area for having a smaller river and the water level rises faster, whereas in NEGRO_063 the water level takes about two months to respond to precipitation.

  17. CAN FLUORIDATION AFFECT WATER LEAD LEVELS AND LEAD NEUROTOXICITY?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent reports have attempted to show that certain approaches to fluoridating potable water is linked to increased levels of lead(II) in the blood. We examine these claims in light of the established science and critically evaluate their significance. The completeness of nexafluo...

  18. Water level oscillations in Monterey Bay and Harbor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, J.; Sweet, W.; Heitsenrether, R.

    2014-11-01

    Seiches are normal modes of water bodies responding to geophysical forcings with potential to significantly impact ecology and maritime operations. Analysis of high-frequency (1 Hz) water level data in Monterey California identifies Harbor modes between 10 and 120 s that are attributed with specific geographic features. It found that modal amplitude modulation arises from cross-modal interaction and that offshore wave energy is a primary driver of these modes. Synchronous coupling between modes is observed to significantly impact dynamic water levels. At lower frequencies between 15 and 60 min modes are independent of offshore wave energy, yet are continuously present. This is unexpected since seiches normally dissipate after cessation of the driving force, indicating an unknown forcing. Spectral and kinematic estimates of these low frequency oscillations supports the idea that a persistent anticyclonic mesoscale gyre adjacent to the Bay is a potential mode driver, while discounting other sources.

  19. A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Blood Glucose Levels for Diabetes Management

    E-print Network

    Bunescu, Razvan C.

    A Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Blood Glucose Levels for Diabetes Management Kevin Plis Abstract Patients with diabetes must continually monitor their blood glucose levels and adjust insulin doses, striving to keep blood glucose levels as close to normal as pos- sible. Blood glucose levels

  20. Blood Glucose Level Prediction using Physiological Models and Support Vector Regression

    E-print Network

    Bunescu, Razvan C.

    Blood Glucose Level Prediction using Physiological Models and Support Vector Regression Razvan continually monitor their blood glucose levels and adjust insulin doses, striving to keep blood glucose levels as close to normal as possible. Blood glucose levels that deviate from the normal range can lead to serious

  1. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture...OPERATIONS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for...

  2. Improving frost-simulation subroutines of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Erosion models play an important role in assessing the influence of human activities on the environment. For cold areas, adequate frost simulation is crucial for predicting surface runoff and water erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, physically-based erosion-prediction softwa...

  3. Predicting Airborne Particle Levels Aboard Washington State School Buses

    PubMed Central

    Adar, Sara D.; Davey, Mark; Sullivan, James R.; Compher, Michael; Szpiro, Adam; Liu, L.-J. Sally

    2008-01-01

    School buses contribute substantially to childhood air pollution exposures yet they are rarely quantified in epidemiology studies. This paper characterizes fine particulate matter (PM2.5) aboard school buses as part of a larger study examining the respiratory health impacts of emission-reducing retrofits. To assess onboard concentrations, continuous PM2.5 data were collected during 85 trips aboard 43 school buses during normal driving routines, and aboard hybrid lead vehicles traveling in front of the monitored buses during 46 trips. Ordinary and partial least square regression models for PM2.5 onboard buses were created with and without control for roadway concentrations, which were also modeled. Predictors examined included ambient PM2.5 levels, ambient weather, and bus and route characteristics. Concentrations aboard school buses (21 ?g/m3) were four and two-times higher than ambient and roadway levels, respectively. Differences in PM2.5 levels between the buses and lead vehicles indicated an average of 7 ?g/m3 originating from the bus's own emission sources. While roadway concentrations were dominated by ambient PM2.5, bus concentrations were influenced by bus age, diesel oxidative catalysts, and roadway concentrations. Cross validation confirmed the roadway models but the bus models were less robust. These results confirm that children are exposed to air pollution from the bus and other roadway traffic while riding school buses. In-cabin air pollution is higher than roadway concentrations and is likely influenced by bus characteristics. PMID:18985175

  4. An Improved Mellor Yamada Level-3 Model: Its Numerical Stability and Application to a Regional Prediction of Advection Fog

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakanishi, Mikio; Niino, Hiroshi

    2006-05-01

    This note describes a numerically stable version of the improved Mellor Yamada (M Y) Level-3 model proposed by Nakanishi and Niino [Nakanishi, M. and Niino, H.: 2004, Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 112, 1 31] and demonstrates its application to a regional prediction of advection fog. In order to ensure the realizability for the improved M Y Level-3 model and its numerical stability, restrictions are imposed on computing stability functions, on L/ q, the temperature and water-content variances, and their covariance, where L is the master length scale and q 2/2 the turbulent kinetic energy per unit mass. The model with these restrictions predicts vertical profiles of mean quantities such as temperature that are in good agreement with those obtained from large-eddy simulation of a radiation fog. In a regional prediction, it also reasonably reproduces the satellite-observed horizontal distribution of an advection fog.

  5. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) –Development History, Model Capabilities and Future Enhancements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was initiated in August 1985 to develop new generation water erosion prediction technology for use by federal agencies involved in soil and water conservation and environmental planning and assessment. Developed by USDA-ARS as a replacement for empirically...

  6. Movements of florida apple snails in relation to water levels and drying events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darby, P.C.; Bennetts, R.E.; Miller, S.J.; Percival, H.F.

    2002-01-01

    Florida apple snails (Pomacea Paludosa) apparently have only a limited tolerance to wetland drying events (although little direct evidence exists), but their populations routinely face dry downs under natural and managed water regimes. In this paper, we address speculation that apple snails respond to decreasing water levels and potential drying events by moving toward refugia that remain inundated. We monitored the movements of apple snails in central Florida, USA during drying events at the Blue Cypress Marsh (BC) and at Lake Kissimmee (LK). We monitored the weekly movements of 47 BC snails and 31 LK snails using radio-telemetry. Snails tended to stop moving when water depths were 10 cm. Snails moved along the greatest positive depth gradient (i.e., towards deeper water) when they encountered water depths between 10 and 20 cm. Snails tended to move toward shallower water in water depths ???50 cm, suggesting that snails were avoiding deep water areas such as canals and sloughs. Of the 11 BC snails originally located in the area that eventually went dry, three (27%) were found in deep water refugia by the end of the study. Only one of the 31 LK snails escaped the drying event by moving to deeper water. Our results indicate that some snails may opportunistically escape drying events through movement. The tendency to move toward deeper water was statistically significant and indicates that this behavioral trait might enhance survival when the spatial extent of a dry down is limited. However, as water level falls below 10 cm, snails stop moving and become stranded. As the spatial extent of a dry down increases, we predict that the number of snails stranded would increase proportionally. Stranded Pomacea paludosa must contend with dry marsh conditions, possibly by aestivation. Little more than anecdotal information has been published on P. paludosa aestivation, but it is a common adaptation among other apple snails (Caenogastropoda: Ampullaridae). ?? 2002, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  7. Study of the influence of temperature and precipitations on the levels of BTEX in natural waters.

    PubMed

    Moliner-Martínez, Y; Herraez-Hernandez, R; Verdú-Andres, J; Campíns-Falcó, P; Garrido-Palanca, C; Molins-Legua, C; Seco, A

    2013-12-15

    Assessment of seasonal changes in surface water quality is an important aspect for evaluating temporal variation of water due to natural or anthropogenic inputs of point and non-point sources. The objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of seasonal temperature fluctuations and precipitations on the levels of BTEX in natural waters. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to evaluate the seasonal correlations of BTEX levels in water and to extract the parameters that are most important in assessing seasonal variations of water quality. This study was carried out as a part of VOCs monitoring program in natural water samples from Mediterranean coast. To carry out this project, a multiresidue analytical method was used. The method was based on headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by gas chromatography coupled to flame ionization detector (FID). The limits of detection LODs found for the tested analyte tested were in the 0.001-1 ?g/L range. These values were adequate for the analysis of these compounds in water samples according to the regulated values. Water samples from different points of the Mediterranean coast were analyzed during a period of three years, and were taken four times per year. Most of the compounds were below the limit established by the legislation. The results obtained by a chemometric study indicated that temperature and precipitations can be related on the BTEX levels found in water. A regression model between temperature or precipitations and BTEX concentration was obtained, thus these models can be used as predictive model for detection any non-normal concentration level. PMID:23978603

  8. Multiple metals predict prolactin and thyrotropin (TSH) levels in men

    SciTech Connect

    Meeker, John D., E-mail: meekerj@umich.edu [Department of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Michigan School of Public Health, 6635 SPH Tower, 109 S. Observatory St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Rossano, Mary G. [Department of Animal and Food Sciences, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States)] [Department of Animal and Food Sciences, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States); Protas, Bridget [Department of Epidemiology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States)] [Department of Epidemiology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States); Diamond, Michael P.; Puscheck, Elizabeth [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States)] [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States); Daly, Douglas [Grand Rapids Fertility and IVF, Grand Rapids, MI (United States)] [Grand Rapids Fertility and IVF, Grand Rapids, MI (United States); Paneth, Nigel [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States)] [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States); Wirth, Julia J. [Department of Epidemiology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States) [Department of Epidemiology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States); Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (United States)

    2009-10-15

    Exposure to a number of metals can affect neuroendocrine and thyroid signaling, which can result in adverse effects on development, behavior, metabolism, reproduction, and other functions. The present study assessed the relationship between metal concentrations in blood and serum prolactin (PRL) and thyrotropin (TSH) levels, markers of dopaminergic, and thyroid function, respectively, among men participating in a study of environmental influences on male reproductive health. Blood samples from 219 men were analyzed for concentrations of 11 metals and serum levels of PRL and TSH. In multiple linear regression models adjusted for age, BMI and smoking, PRL was inversely associated with arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, manganese, molybdenum, and zinc, but positively associated with chromium. Several of these associations (Cd, Pb, Mo) are consistent with limited studies in humans or animals, and a number of the relationships (Cr, Cu, Pb, Mo) remained when additionally considering multiple metals in the model. Lead and copper were associated with non-monotonic decrease in TSH, while arsenic was associated with a dose-dependent increase in TSH. For arsenic these findings were consistent with recent experimental studies where arsenic inhibited enzymes involved in thyroid hormone synthesis and signaling. More research is needed for a better understanding of the role of metals in neuroendocrine and thyroid function and related health implications.

  9. Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

    1980-01-01

    The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

  10. ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF WATER TREATMENT COSTS AT THE DV HARRIS PLANT IN THE UMGENI CATCHMENT AREA

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. B. Dennison; Michael C. Lyne

    1997-01-01

    This paper has two objectives: first, to identify the main contaminants responsible for high treatment costs in the Umgeni catchment area, and second, to predict treatment costs from observed levels of contaminants. A partial adjustment model of treatment costs is estimated for the DV Harris plant, which draws water from Midmar Dam, using ordinary least squares regression and principal component

  11. Water-level changes in the Ogallala aquifer, northwestern Oklahoma.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Havens, J.S.

    1985-01-01

    The Ogallala aquifer, that part of the High Plains aquifer in Oklahoma, is part of a regional aquifer system that underlies parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. In 1978 the US Geological Survey began a 5- year study of the High Plains regional aquifer system to provide hydrologic information for evaluation of the effects of long-term development of the aquifer and to develop a capability for predicting aquifer response to various ground-water-management alternatives (Weeks, 1978). -from Author

  12. Impact of eustatic sea level changes on the salt-water fresh-water interface in coastal ground waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, Thomas; Lettmann, Karsten; Brumsack, Hans-Jürgen

    2010-05-01

    During the Holocene sea level rise has been inundating former glacial to inter-glacial deposits at the North German coast some of which are in use for municipal drinking water abstraction. Sea water intrusion into these sediments represents a serious threat to the coastal freshwater resources. To date, mechanisms and timing of salt water intrusion have not been explored. Interstitial waters from two drilling cores recovered about 3 km offshore the coastline of Northern Germany now offer the possibility of investigating the origin and possible age of the sea water intrusion. The chloride inventory shows that the sea-water fresh-water interface in the subsurface is currently not in equilibrium with the position of todaýs coastline. Furthermore, the shape of the chloride depth profile suggests that at least one regression must have intermitted the Holocene transgression. Based on these findings we conducted a transient numerical simulation to elucidate the impact of eustatic sea level changes on the salt-water fresh-water distribution within the subsurface of coastal regions. We applied a modified Henry model with an inclined surface and forced by a dynamic sea level. The results show that salt fronts in the subsurface follow the coastline during transgressions and promote a fast salinization of the model aquifer. A regression immediately leads to the freshening of surface sediments via the replacement of saline and brackish waters with meteoric waters, while flushing of deeper parts of the model aquifer with fresh-water was significantly slower. Although the coastline has moved seaward saline ground waters remained at depth because ground water velocities are slower and density-driven recirculation of sea water constantly resupplies salt water. The results indicate that the shape of the salt-water fresh-water interface in coastal aquifers may strongly be affected by eustatic sea level changes. They also provide evidence that man-made fixation of the coast line by land reclamation and the subsequent construction of dykes in Northern Germany has impacted the salt-water distribution in the subsurface. But although dyking has started around 1000 years ago some areas still do not have completely freshened. This implies that freshening of aquifers once intruded by sea water may be a slow process which takes te?s to hundreds of years.

  13. Water Level Temporal Variation Analysis at Prata Basin Using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimaraes, G.; Blitzkow, D.; Matos, A.; Vaz, F.; Campos, I.; Barbosa, A.

    2008-12-01

    A comparison between daily in-situ water level time series measured at ground-based hydrometric stations of Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) with vertically-integrated water height deduced from GRACE geoid (height anomaly) is carried out. The 10-day intervals of GRACE models were computed by Groupe de Recherches de Géodésie Spatiale (CNES/GRGS). The height anomaly was converted into equivalent water height, over the Prata basin for a ~6-year period (July-2002 to May-2008). A correlation around 74 per cent has been detected. This correlation allows defining a local transfer function by adjusting a linear relationship between GRACE-based and in situ observation time-series. The study of the Continuous Wavelet Transform was applied in the hydrometric stations and a time-scale correlation was figured out.

  14. Concurrent and Predictive Relations between Hormone Levels and Social-Emotional Functioning in Early Adolescence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nottelmann, Editha D.; And Others

    Hormone levels and changes in hormone levels were evaluated three times across a 1-year period as concurrent and predictive correlates of the socio-emotional functioning of 56 boys 10- to 14-years-old and 52 girls 9- to 14-years-old who represented the five stages of Tanner's criteria of pubertal development. The hormone measures were serum levels…

  15. Sea water intrusion by sea-level rise: scenarios for the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Loáiciga, Hugo A; Pingel, Thomas J; Garcia, Elizabeth S

    2012-01-01

    This study presents a method to assess the contributions of 21st-century sea-level rise and groundwater extraction to sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Sea water intrusion is represented by the landward advance of the 10,000 mg/L iso-salinity line, a concentration of dissolved salts that renders groundwater unsuitable for human use. A mathematical formulation of the resolution of sea water intrusion among its causes was quantified via numerical simulation under scenarios of change in groundwater extraction and sea-level rise in the 21st century. The developed method is illustrated with simulations of sea water intrusion in the Seaside Area sub-basin near the City of Monterey, California (USA), where predictions of mean sea-level rise through the early 21st century range from 0.10 to 0.90 m due to increasing global mean surface temperature. The modeling simulation was carried out with a state-of-the-art numerical model that accounts for the effects of salinity on groundwater density and can approximate hydrostratigraphic geometry closely. Simulations of sea water intrusion corresponding to various combinations of groundwater extraction and sea-level rise established that groundwater extraction is the predominant driver of sea water intrusion in the study aquifer. The method presented in this work is applicable to coastal aquifers under a variety of other scenarios of change not considered in this work. For example, one could resolve what changes in groundwater extraction and/or sea level would cause specified levels of groundwater salinization at strategic locations and times. PMID:21352208

  16. Diurnal variation of low-level cloudiness over tropical waters

    E-print Network

    Peterson, Wayne Miller

    1968-01-01

    DIURNAL VARIATXON OF LOP/-Li VPW CLOUDXNESS OVER TROPICAL hATERS A Thesis @ayne Miller Peterson Submitted to the Graduate College of Texas AM] University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August... 1968 Major Subject: Meteorology DIURNAL VARIATION O' LO '-LEVEL CLOUDIN SS OVER TROPICAL WATERS A Thesis by Wayne Miller Peterson Approved as to style and content by: 1, ~p&~c ~ airman of Coemiittee Member Me er August 1968 ABSTRACT Diurnal...

  17. Prediction of water quality parameters from SAR images by using multivariate and texture analysis models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shareef, Muntadher A.; Toumi, Abdelmalek; Khenchaf, Ali

    2014-10-01

    Remote sensing is one of the most important tools for monitoring and assisting to estimate and predict Water Quality parameters (WQPs). The traditional methods used for monitoring pollutants are generally relied on optical images. In this paper, we present a new approach based on the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images which we used to map the region of interest and to estimate the WQPs. To achieve this estimation quality, the texture analysis is exploited to improve the regression models. These models are established and developed to estimate six common concerned water quality parameters from texture parameters extracted from Terra SAR-X data. In this purpose, the Gray Level Cooccurrence Matrix (GLCM) is used to estimate several regression models using six texture parameters such as contrast, correlation, energy, homogeneity, entropy and variance. For each predicted model, an accuracy value is computed from the probability value given by the regression analysis model of each parameter. In order to validate our approach, we have used tow dataset of water region for training and test process. To evaluate and validate the proposed model, we applied it on the training set. In the last stage, we used the fuzzy K-means clustering to generalize the water quality estimation on the whole of water region extracted from segmented Terra SAR-X image. Also, the obtained results showed that there are a good statistical correlation between the in situ water quality and Terra SAR-X data, and also demonstrated that the characteristics obtained by texture analysis are able to monitor and predicate the distribution of WQPs in large rivers with high accuracy.

  18. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  19. THE EFFECT OF LOCATION OF THE PREDICTED PERFORMANCE OF A HEAT PUMP WATER HEATER

    E-print Network

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    #12;THE EFFECT OF LOCATION OF THE PREDICTED PERFORMANCE OF A HEAT PUMP WATER HEATER Laboratory testing and field testing have shown that a heat pump water heater (HPWH) uses about half the electrical energy input that an electric resistance water heater does. However, since the heat pump water heater

  20. Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

    2014-01-01

    Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

  1. Remotely mapping river water quality using multivariate regression with prediction validation.

    SciTech Connect

    Stork, Christopher Lyle; Autry, Bradley C. (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

    2005-07-01

    Remote spectral sensing offers an attractive means of mapping river water quality over wide spatial regions. While previous research has focused on development of spectral indices and models to predict river water quality based on remote images, little attention has been paid to subsequent validation of these predictions. To address this oversight, we describe a retrospective analysis of remote, multispectral Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) images of the Ohio River and its Licking River and Little Miami River tributaries. In conjunction with the CASI acquisitions, ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity were made for a small set of locations in the Ohio River. Partial least squares regression models relating the remote river images to ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity for the Ohio River were developed. Employing these multivariate models, chlorophyll-a concentrations and turbidity levels were predicted in river pixels lacking ground truth measurements, generating detailed estimated water quality maps. An important but often neglected step in the regression process is to validate prediction results using a spectral residual statistic. For both the chlorophyll-a and turbidity regression models, a spectral residual value was calculated for each river pixel and compared to the associated statistical confidence limit for the model. These spectral residual statistic results revealed that while the chlorophyll-a and turbidity models could validly be applied to a vast majority of Ohio River and Licking River pixels, application of these models to Little Miami River pixels was inappropriate due to an unmodeled source of spectral variation.

  2. A model to predict water intake of a pig growing in a known environment on a known diet.

    PubMed

    Schiavon, S; Emmans, G C

    2000-12-01

    A model to predict voluntary water intake (WI) of a pig fed a known diet in a known environment is described. The daily retentions of protein, lipid, water and ash were estimated over time using a published pig growth model. Food intakes were estimated using published methods. WI was estimated by adding the amounts required for digestion (WD), faecal excretion (Wfec), growth (WG), evaporation (WE), urinary excretion (WU) and by then subtracting the water arising from feed (WF), from nutrient oxidation (WO) and synthesis of body constituents (WS). WD was predicted assuming an absorption of water of 0.10, 0.16 and 0.07 kg/kg digestible carbohydrate, crude protein and lipid respectively. Wfec was estimated taking into account the water associated with the undigested protein (0.86 kg/kg), diethyl ether extract (-12.11 kg/kg), crude fibre (1.86 kg/kg), ash (-0.42 kg/kg) and N-free extract (4.4 kg/kg). The basal level of WE was estimated from the heat production of the pig fed ad libitum (MJ/d) as: 0.25 x (metabolizable energy - energy retained as protein and lipid) x 0.4, where 0.25 is the assumed proportion of the insensible heat loss at the comfort temperature and 0.4 is the water lost per MJ dissipated heat. WE in a hot environment was predicted by assuming that evaporation increased up to three times the basal level to offset the decreased sensible heat loss. To predict WU a water requirement for renal excretion of 2.05 and 3.40 kg/osmol excreted N as urea and minerals respectively was assumed. The urinary load of N and minerals was predicted from the intake of digestible nutrients and their retention. From the oxidation of 1 kg carbohydrate, protein, and fat it was assumed that 0.6, 0.42 and 1.07 kg water (WO) were released respectively. WS was predicted by assuming a release of 0.16, 0.07 and 0.57 kg water per kg retained protein, retained lipid coming from digestible lipid, and retained lipid coming from digestible carbohydrate respectively. The model is strongly rooted in a theoretical structure. When its predictions were compared with data from suitable experiments, the results were not significantly different. Both the pattern and the magnitude of responses of the model to changes in body weight, feed intake and environmental temperature are sensible and it allows a fuller prediction of voluntary water intake than the methods currently available. PMID:11177204

  3. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2003, Volume 1: Continuous water-level, streamflow, water-quality data, and periodic water-quality data, Water Year 2003

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hickey, Andrew C.; Kerestes, John F.; McCallum, Brian E.

    2004-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2003 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2003, including: discharge records of 163 gaging stations; stage for 187 gaging stations; precipitation for 140 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 40 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 65 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 36 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data at 162 stations in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2003, including continuous water-level records of 156 ground-water wells and periodic records at 130 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  4. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2002--Volume 1: Continuous water-level, streamflow, water-quality data, and periodic water-quality data, Water Year 2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hickey, Andrew C.; Kerestes, John F.; McCallum, Brian E.

    2002-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2002 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2002, including: discharge records of 154 gaging stations; stage for 165 gaging stations; precipitation for 105 gaging stations; information for 20 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 27 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 72 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 50 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2002, including continuous water-level records of 155 ground-water wells and periodic records at 132 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  5. Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Wetterhall, F.; Khan, V.; Hagemann, S.; Lahijani, H.

    2014-07-01

    The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores.

  6. Calibration of Predicted Hourly Zone-Level Supply Air Flows with Measurements

    E-print Network

    Mihai, A.; Zmeureanu, R.

    2013-01-01

    data extracted from the Building Energy Management System (EMS). The paper presents the calibration of predicted hourly zone-level supply air flows with measurements. The suggested approach is applied to a new institutional building of Concordia...

  7. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. EPSAC Predictive Control of Blood Glucose Level in Type I Diabetic Patients

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Clara Ionescu; Robin De Keyser

    2005-01-01

    An in-house predictive control algorithm has been implemented to control blood glucose level in type I diabetic patients, by controlling the insulin infusion rate to a mechanical pump. The role of the disturbance filter in model-based predictive control is underlined and its possibility to improve control performance is exploited. For comparison purposes, a classic PID controller has been designed via

  9. Automatic CEFR Level Prediction for Estonian Learner Text Sowmya Vajjala1

    E-print Network

    and with the advent of computational tools that can process language, automatic approaches that reduce human gradingAutomatic CEFR Level Prediction for Estonian Learner Text Sowmya Vajjala1 , Kaidi Lõo2 (1) LEAD for automatically predicting a learner's language proficiency in Estonian according to the European CEFR scale. We

  10. Development of a neural network model for predicting glucose levels in a surgical critical care setting

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Scott M Pappada; Marilyn J Borst; Brent D Cameron; Raymond E Bourey; Jason D Lather; Desmond Shipp; Antonio Chiricolo; Thomas J Papadimos

    2010-01-01

    Development of neural network models for the prediction of glucose levels in critically ill patients through the application of continuous glucose monitoring may provide enhanced patient outcomes. Here we demonstrate the utilization of a predictive model in real-time bedside monitoring. Such modeling may provide intelligent\\/directed therapy recommendations, guidance, and ultimately automation, in the near future as a means of providing

  11. Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

    1984-01-01

    The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

  12. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, effects of pumping on water levels and water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1982-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the coastal area of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin in southern California. The water-level declines are the result of increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines in the main water-bearing zones to altitudes below sea level. Consequently, the ground-water basin is threatened with salt-water intrusion if the present pumpage is maintained or increased. Water-quality data suggest that salt-water intrusion has already degraded the water yielded from six coastal wells. Chloride concentrations in the six wells ranged from about 400 to 4,000 milligrams per liter. Municipal supply wells near the coast currently yield water of suitable quality for domestic use. There is, however, no known physical barrier to the continued inland advance salt water. Management alternatives to control salt-water intrusion in the Santa Barbara area include (1) decreasing municipal pumping, (2) increasing the quantity of water available for recharge by releasing surplus water to Mission Creek, (3) artificially recharing the basin using injection wells, and (4) locating municipal supply wells farther from the coast and farther apart to minimize drawdown. (USGS)

  13. A screening level fate model of organic contaminants from advanced water treatment in a potable water supply reservoir.

    PubMed

    Hawker, Darryl W; Cumming, Janet L; Neale, Peta A; Bartkow, Michael E; Escher, Beate I

    2011-01-01

    Augmentation of potable water sources by planned indirect potable reuse of wastewater is being widely considered to address growing water shortages. Environmental buffers such as lakes and dams may act as one of a series of barriers to potable water contamination stemming from micropollutants in wastewater. In South-East Queensland, Australia, current government policy is to begin indirect potable reuse of water from reverse osmosis equipped advanced water treatment plants (AWTPs) when the combined capacity of its major storages is at 40% capacity. A total of 15 organic contaminants including NDMA and bisphenol A have been publically reported as detected in recycled water from one of South-East Queensland's AWTPs, while another 98 chemicals were analysed for, but found to be below their detection limit. To assess the natural attenuation in Lake Wivenhoe, a Level III fugacity based evaluative fate model was constructed using the maximum concentrations of these contaminants detected as input data. A parallel aquivalence based model was constructed for those contaminants, such as dichloroacetic acid, dalapon and triclopyr, which are ionised in the environment of Lake Wivenhoe. A total of 247 organic chemicals of interest, including disinfection by-products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, xenoestrogens and industrial chemicals, were evaluated with the model to assess their potential for natural attenuation. Out of the 15 detected chemicals, trihalomethanes are expected to volatilise with concentrations in the outflow from the dam approximately 400 times lower than influent from the AWTPs. Transformation processes in water are likely to be more significant for NDMA and pharmaceuticals such as salicylic acid and paracetamol as well as for caffeine and the herbicides dalapon and triclopyr. For hydrophobic contaminants such as cholesterol and phenolic xenoestrogens such as 4-nonylphenol, 4-t-octylphenol and bisphenol A, equilibrium between water and sediments will not be attained and hence fate processes such as removal in outflow are predicted to become relatively important. PMID:20851445

  14. Wheat: Its water use, production and disease detection and prediction. [Kansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanemasu, E. T. (principal investigator); Lenhert, D.; Niblett, C.; Manges, H.; Eversmeyer, M. G.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Discussed in this report are: (1) the effects of wheat disease on water use and yield; and (2) the use of ERTS-1 imagery in the evaluation of wheat growth and in the detection of disease severity. Leaf area index was linearly correlated with ratios MSS4:MSS5 and MSS5:MSS6. In an area of severe wheat streak mosaic virus infected fields, correlations of ERTS-1 digital counts with wheat yields and disease severity levels were significant at the 5% level for MSS bands 4 and 5 and band ratios 4/6 and 4/7. Data collection platforms were used to gather meteorological data for the early prediction of rust severity and economic loss.

  15. Water treating control system based on predictive control theory of multi-model switching algorithm

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Qing Zhang; Xionghai Wang; Zhengyu Fang

    2004-01-01

    Aiming at the present water factory control system, this paper analyses some influence factors affecting alum quantity of water treated control system, and discusses the design method of adding alum control system. An automatic control policy of adding alum control system is proposed, which is based on multi-model switching predictive control algorithm. Using performance measures derived from the resultant prediction

  16. BIOASSAY PROCEDURE FOR PREDICTING COLIFORM BACTERIAL GROWTH IN DRINKING WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water quality degradation due to the growth of microorganisms Is an area of concern for many water utilities. urrently the nutrient status of drinking water is difficult to measure and can only be defined in relative terms. o date, the procedures developed for determining the amo...

  17. BIOASSAY PROCEDURES FOR PREDICTING COLIFORM BACTERIAL GROWTH IN DRINKING WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water quality degradation due to the growth of microorganisms is an area of concern for many water utilities. o date, the procedures developed or determining the amount of biodegradable material present in potable water have utilized heterotrophic non-coliform bacteria as bioassa...

  18. Rapid and accurate prediction and scoring of water molecules in protein binding sites.

    PubMed

    Ross, Gregory A; Morris, Garrett M; Biggin, Philip C

    2012-01-01

    Water plays a critical role in ligand-protein interactions. However, it is still challenging to predict accurately not only where water molecules prefer to bind, but also which of those water molecules might be displaceable. The latter is often seen as a route to optimizing affinity of potential drug candidates. Using a protocol we call WaterDock, we show that the freely available AutoDock Vina tool can be used to predict accurately the binding sites of water molecules. WaterDock was validated using data from X-ray crystallography, neutron diffraction and molecular dynamics simulations and correctly predicted 97% of the water molecules in the test set. In addition, we combined data-mining, heuristic and machine learning techniques to develop probabilistic water molecule classifiers. When applied to WaterDock predictions in the Astex Diverse Set of protein ligand complexes, we could identify whether a water molecule was conserved or displaced to an accuracy of 75%. A second model predicted whether water molecules were displaced by polar groups or by non-polar groups to an accuracy of 80%. These results should prove useful for anyone wishing to undertake rational design of new compounds where the displacement of water molecules is being considered as a route to improved affinity. PMID:22396746

  19. Earthquake dates and water level changes in wells in the Eskisehir region,Turkey Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(5), 777781 (2003) EGU

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Earthquake dates and water level changes in wells in the Eskisehir region,Turkey 777 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(5), 777781 (2003) © EGU Technical Note: Earthquake dates and water level@ogu.edu.tr Abstract Although satisfactory results have yet to be obtained in earthquake prediction, one of the most

  20. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2001, Volume 1: Continuous water-level, streamflow, water-quality data, and periodic water-quality data, Water Year 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCallum, Brian E.; Kerestes, John F.; Hickey, Andrew C.

    2001-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2001 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2001, including: discharge records of 133 gaging stations; stage for 144 gaging stations; precipitation for 58 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 17 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 76 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 27 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2001, including continuous water-level records of 159 ground-water wells and periodic records at 138 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia. Note: Historically, this report was published as a paper report. For the 1999 and subsequent water-year reports, the Water Resources Data for Georgia changed to a new, more informative and functional format on CD-ROM. The format is based on a geographic information system (GIS) user interface that allows the user to view map locations of the hydrologic monitoring stations and networks within respective river basins.

  1. Assessment and prediction of contaminant migration in ground water from chromite waste dump

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwary, R. K.; Dhakate, R.; Ananda Rao, V.; Singh, V. S.

    2005-08-01

    Sukinda chromite valley is one of the largest chromite deposits of the country and produces nearly 8% of chromite ore. It greatly contributes towards the economic development but at the same time deteriorates the natural environment. It is generally excavated by opencast mining method. In the Sukinda mining area, around 7.6 million tons of solid waste have been generated in the form of rejected minerals, overburden material/waste rock and sub-grade ore that may be resulting in environmental degradation, mainly causing lowering in the water table vis-à-vis deterioration in surface and ground water quality. The study conducted in and around one of the chromite mine of the valley reveals that the concentration of hexavalent chromium is found in the water samples of ground and surface water, mine effluents and seepage water. Hexavalent Chromium (Cr+6) have been found varying between 0.02 mg/l and 0.12 mg/l in mine effluents and 0.03 0.8 mg/l in shallow hand pumps and 0.05 and 1.22 mg/l in quarry seepage. The concentration of Cr+6 in Damsal nalah, the main surface water source in the area, is found varying between 0.03 mg/l and 0.14 mg/l and a increasing trend, which is in the downstream of mining activities, has been observed. Leachate study clearly shows that the soil lying in the vicinity of mine waste dump shows highest concentration of Cr+6. Contaminant migration in ground water depends upon various geohydrological conditions of the area. The study shows that aquifer resistivity varies between 15 ?m to 150 ?m and aquifer depth varies from 4 m to 26 m below ground level. The ground water flow and mass transport models were constructed with the help of geo-hydrological and geophysical informations using Visual Modflow software. Contaminant migration and path lines for 20 years have been predicted in two layers model of ground water. The study provided an insight into the likely migration of contaminant in ground water due to leaching from overburden dump of chromite ore and will be helpful in making strategic planning for limiting the contaminant migration in the ground water regime in and around the mining areas.

  2. On the interpretation of coastal aquifer water level trends and water balances: A precautionary note

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morgan, L.; Werner, A. D.; Simmons, C.

    2012-12-01

    It is common for seawater intrusion-induced interface movements and associated changes in seawater volume not to be considered in coastal aquifer management studies. However, it is not well understood when this simplified approach may result in erroneous estimates of freshwater volumes and flawed interpretations of water level trend analyses. This gap is addressed in this study using a simple steady-state, sharp-interface, analytic modelling approach (i.e., Strack, 1976) to generate idealised relationships between seawater volume, freshwater volume and water levels. For a number of case studies, water level trends were found to be increasingly insensitive to reductions in freshwater volume and, as such, changes in seawater volume need to be considered when using water level trends as a measure of sustainability (e.g., within trigger-level management approaches, as commonly applied in Australia). The conditions under which seawater volume changes have greatest impact on water level trends are also described. Changes in seawater volume (over an assumed timescale) were found to represent 10% to 30% of freshwater discharge under realistic water table decline scenarios. As such, it is shown that changes in seawater volume need to be included within water balance assessments for the case studies considered. These results have wide-sweeping implications for coastal aquifer management, demonstrating that seawater volume changes may, in many cases, need to be included to avoid over-allocation of groundwater. In view of the short-comings associated with using water level trends to assess coastal aquifer status, an approach involving the comparison of groundwater levels relative to the hydraulic head imposed by the ocean, accounting for density effects, is recommended. A representative head for the coastal boundary in freshwater-only representations of unconfined aquifers is proposed that produces reasonable fluxes of freshwater discharge to the sea. This new coastal head adds to the Post et al. (2007) discussion of freshwater head calculations. It provides a first-order estimate of the value that near-shoreline watertable levels should exceed to maintain a discharge to the sea and to avoid SWI issues. The analytic solution used for this study involves an assumption of quasi-equilibrium conditions between the water table and interface. This assumption was evaluated using a selection of transient simulations and was found to be a reasonable approximation in the majority of case studies. As such, the analytic methods presented here can, in many cases, be rapidly applied to assess the need to consider seawater volumes within specific cases. References Post, V., Kooi, H., Simmons, C., 2007. Using hydraulic head measurements in variable-density ground water flow analyses. Ground Water 45(6), 664-671. Strack, O.D.L., 1976. Single-potential solution for regional interface problems in coastal aquifers. Water Resources Research 12, 1165-1174.

  3. Predicting the vulnerability of reservoirs to poor water quality and cyanobacterial blooms.

    PubMed

    Leigh, Catherine; Burford, Michele A; Roberts, David T; Udy, James W

    2010-08-01

    Cyanobacterial blooms in drinking water reservoirs present a major ecosystem functioning and human health issue. The ability to predict reservoir vulnerability to these blooms would provide information critical for decision making, hazard prevention and management. We developed a new, comparative index of vulnerability based on simple measures of reservoir and catchment characteristics, rather than water quality data, which were instead used to test the index's effectiveness. Testing was based on water quality data collected over a number of seasons and years from 15 drinking water reservoirs in subtropical, southeast Queensland. The index correlated significantly and strongly with algal cell densities, including potentially toxic cyanobacteria, as well as with the proportions of cyanobacteria in summer months. The index also performed better than each of the measures of reservoir and catchment characteristics alone, and as such, was able to encapsulate the physical characteristics of subtropical reservoirs, and their catchments, into an effective indicator of the vulnerability to summer blooms. This was further demonstrated by calculating the index for a new reservoir to be built within the study region. Under planned dimensions and land use, a comparatively high level of vulnerability was reached within a few years. However, the index score and the number of years taken to reach a similar level of vulnerability could be reduced simply by decreasing the percentage of grazing land cover via revegetation within the catchment. With climate change, continued river impoundment and the growing demand for potable water, our index has potential decision making benefits when planning future reservoirs to reduce their vulnerability to cyanobacterial blooms. PMID:20598731

  4. Prediction of blood glucose level of type 1 diabetics using response surface methodology and data mining

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Yamaguchi; C. Kaseda; K. Yamazaki; M. Kobayashi

    2006-01-01

    In order to improve the accuracy of predicting blood glucose levels, it is necessary to obtain details about the lifestyle and to optimize the input variables dependent on diabetics. In this study, using four subjects who are type 1 diabetics, the fasting blood glucose level (FBG), metabolic rate, food intake, and physical condition are recorded for more than 5 months as

  5. Using Trust-Based Information Aggregation for Predicting Security Level of Systems

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Using Trust-Based Information Aggregation for Predicting Security Level of Systems Siv Hilde Houmb1 level of a security solution using information sources who are trusted to varying degrees. We show how.colostate.edu Abstract. Sometimes developers must design innovative security solutions that have a rapid development

  6. Using Trust-Based Information Aggregation for Predicting Security Level of Systems

    E-print Network

    Ray, Indrakshi

    Using Trust-Based Information Aggregation for Predicting Security Level of Systems Siv Hilde Houmb1 level of a security solution using information sources who are trusted to varying degrees. We show how}@cs.colostate.edu Abstract. Sometimes developers must design innovative security solutions that have a rapid development

  7. Brain Natriuretic Peptide Levels Predict Perioperative Events in Cardiac Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery: A Prospective Study

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David Leibowitz; David Planer; David Rott; Yair Elitzur; Tova Chajek-Shaul; A. Teddy Weiss

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels correlate with prognosis in patients with cardiac disease and may be useful in the risk stratification of cardiac patients undergoing noncardiac surgery (NCS). The objective of this study was to examine whether BNP levels predict perioperative events in cardiac patients undergoing NCS. Methods: Patients undergoing NCS with at least 1 of the following criteria

  8. Linear regression prediction model of prefecture level highway passenger transport volume

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shuangying Xua; Jian Ma; Lei Zhang; Xiaolin Gao

    2011-01-01

    Frefecture level highway passenger transport occupied an important position in China highway transportation system. Correct forecast growth of prefecture highway passenger transport volume was the key for prefecture passenger planning and optimizing transport resource allocation. This paper analyzed the influence factors of prefecture level highway passenger transport volume and constructed linear regression prediction model of passenger transport volume. The model

  9. A numerical analysis on the applicability of the water level fluctuation method for quantifying groundwater recharge

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Koo; D. Lee

    2002-01-01

    The water table fluctuation(WTF) method is a conventional method for quantifying groundwater recharge by multiplying the specific yield to the water level rise. Based on the van Genuchten model, an analytical relationship between groundwater recharge and the water level rise is derived. The equation is used to analyze the effects of the depth to water level and the soil properties

  10. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LEVELS OF HETEROTROPHIC BACTERIA AND WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conventional plating methods were used to quantify heterotrophic bacteria from a drinking water distribution system. Three media, plate count agar (PCA), R2A agar and sheep blood agar (TSA-SB) were used to determine heterotrophic plate count (HPC) levels. Grab samples were collec...

  11. Predicting Fecal Coliform Bacteria Levels in the Charles River, Massachusetts, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eleria, Anna; Vogel, Richard M.

    2005-10-01

    In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river? health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R2s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.

  12. Evaluation of uncertainty propagation into river water quality predictions to guide future monitoring campaigns

    Microsoft Academic Search

    V. Vandenberghe; W. Bauwens; P. A. Vanrolleghem

    2007-01-01

    To evaluate the future state of river water in view of actual pollution loading or different management options, water quality models are a useful tool. However, the uncertainty on the model predictions is sometimes too high to draw proper conclusions. Because of the complexity of process based river water quality models, it is best to investigate this problem according to

  13. Prediction of noise levels and annoyance from aircraft run-ups at Vancouver International Airport.

    PubMed

    Scherebnyj, Katrina; Hodgson, Murray

    2007-10-01

    Annoyance complaints resulting from engine run-ups have been increasing at Vancouver International Airport for several years. To assist the Airport in managing run-up noise levels, a prediction tool based on a Green's function parabolic equation (GFPE) model has been consolidated, evaluated, and applied. It was extended to include more realistic atmospheric and ground input parameters. Measurements were made of the noise-radiation characteristics of a CRJ200 jet aircraft. The GFPE model was validated by comparing predictions with results in the literature. A sensitivity analysis showed that predicted levels are relatively insensitive to small variations in geometry and ground impedance, but relatively sensitive to variations in wind speed, atmosphere type, and aircraft heading and power setting. Predicted noise levels were compared with levels measured at noise monitoring terminals. For the four cases for which all input information was available, agreement was within 10 dBA. For events for which some information had to be estimated, predictions were within 20 dBA. The predicted annoyance corresponding to the run-up events considered ranged from 1.8% to 9.5% of people awoken, suggesting that noise complaints can be expected. PMID:17902830

  14. Fish in Long Beach waters have risky contamination levels From staff reports Long Beach Press Telegram

    E-print Network

    Fish in Long Beach waters have risky contamination levels From staff reports Long Beach Press coast showed high levels of methylmercury and moderate levels of PCBs in fish in Long Beach bay waters the coast. In the bay waters of Long Beach, the levels found in fish were of "high concern," according

  15. Predicting Global Warming Impacts on Regional Water Availability

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jennifer Alltop Aminzade; David Rind

    Abstract As climate warms during the 21st century, resultant changes in water availability are an extremely important issue for society, perhaps even more important than the magnitude of warming itself. In this paper, we use the results from different climate model simulations to calculate changes in regional water availability. We examine the possibilities and problems associated with these calculations, focused

  16. Inflow, outflow, and water levels in Lake Michigan during the last part of the Wisconsin glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, L.; Attig, J.W. (Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, Madison, WI (United States)); Mickelson, D.M. (Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics)

    1992-01-01

    Between about 14,000 and 10,000 B.P., water flowed to and from Lake Michigan through several channels connected with adjacent glacial lakes and the Mississippi basin. Inflow and outflow depend on lake-level fluctuations, but no known lake-level chronology for the Lake Michigan basin explains all the supposed facts. Several kinds of information can be use to construct such a chronology: elevations of beaches, elevations and locations of outlets, ice-margin positions, till stratigraphy, and glacial history relative to outlets and lake-sediment distribution. If the crustal rebound predicted by J.A. Clark (bracketed by glacial Lake Wisconsin and Door Peninsula water planes) is used as the basis for a lake-level chronology, lake elevations would have been much higher than previously recognized, beaches previously thought to be late glacial must be middle Holocene, and the predicted sequence of spillways from glacial Lake Oshkosh, in the Green Bay basin, to Lake Michigan seems incompatible with the till stratigraphy of the region. On the other hand, a hinge line model such as proposed by J.W. Goldthwait allows far less rebound than is required by their knowledge of present-day rebound and by the rebound interpreted from shore features of glacial Lake Wisconsin. Therefore major flaws exist in their understanding of the glacial chronology and stratigraphy, of the glacial lake deposits, or of the crustal rebound; the reconstructed of inflow and outflow will remain uncertain until these conflicts are resolved.

  17. Use of the whole body ion loss sublethal bioassay for predicting stream water quality impaired by heavy metals and low pH. Final report

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. S. Grippo; W. A. Dunson

    1992-01-01

    The use of changes in whole body ion levels of stream organisms as a physiological bioindicator of water pollution by metals and acidity in coal mine effluents was tested. The authors compared: (1) lethality tests to body sodium loss after exposure of fathead minnows to simulated and field-collected mine water; (2) developed a predictive model of body ion loss in

  18. Predicting Impacts of Increased CO2 and Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Water Quality in the Semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO3–N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO2, precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO2 concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO3–N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO3–N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

  19. Evaluation of Rock Mass Responses Using High Resolution Water-level Tiltmeter Arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, J. S.; Wang, H. F.; Fratta, D.; Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.; Geox^Tm

    2010-12-01

    External forces act on the surface of the earth and produce deformation across all spatial and temporal scales. This research study focuses on the deformation evaluation of the rock-mass subjected to tidal, earthquake and surface forces. The events are monitored over horizontal distances of over 100 meters with tilt measurement arrays with a resolution of 10-8 radians. These measurements are obtained from hydrostatic leveling system (HLS) arrays that have been installed in the LaFarge mine in North Aurora, IL by Fermilab. Each sensor in the array is equipped with a water-filled reservoir beneath a capacitor. The amount of water in the reservoir is calculated as a function of the measured capacitance. Individual sensors are connected in a closed system via a water and air line. As the host rock expands and contracts sensors are raised relative to another and water is displaced. The water level in each reservoir is sent to a computer in the mine and recorded. In order to measure the tilt of the rock between two points, the difference in water levels between adjacent sensors is computed. The difference between the end sensors is also calculated to determine the larger-scale tilt of the array. The tiltmeters in LaFarge mine are supported by concrete pedestals installed on the floor of the drift. In the Homestake mine the tiltmeters are placed on similar pedestals, as well as platforms made of artificial wood decking. These platforms are fixed to the wall of the drift with a rock bolt. Time and frequency domain analyses were performed on time series ranging from hours to six months to capture relevant time scales including the response to the 2010 Chile Earthquake (hour-long scale), the stages of the moon (month scale), Fox River floods (flooding week long scales and pressure dissipation month-long scales). By monitoring tiltmeter array responses to different forces, we aim at making predictions about the material properties of rock masses.

  20. Numerical prediction of droplet dynamics in turbulent flow, using the level set method

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ashraf Balabel

    2011-01-01

    In the present article, the droplet dynamics in turbulent flow is numerically predicted. The modelling is based on an interfacial marker-level set (IMLS) method, coupled with the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations to predict the dynamics of turbulent two-phase flow. The governing equations for time-dependent, two-dimensional and incompressible two-phase flow are described in both phases and solved separately using a control

  1. Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Masterson, J.P.; Garabedian, S.P.

    2007-01-01

    The effects of sea-level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density-dependent, three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea-level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea-level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea-level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  2. Project Water Science. General Science High School Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Water Education Foundation, Sacramento, CA.

    This teacher's guide presents 12 hands-on laboratory activities for high school science classes that cover the environmental issue of water resources in California. The activities are separated into three sections. Five activities in the section on water quality address the topics of groundwater, water hardness, bottled water, water purity, and…

  3. Water issues: the need for action at different levels

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alexander J. B. Zehnder; Hong Yang; Roland Schertenleib

    2003-01-01

    Fair fresh water distribution among humans and nature and among all sectors will be one of the main challenges of the 21st century. There is a complex interplay between the different water users, and clear systematics are needed for efficient decision making. Water uses can be divided into four sectors, (i) water for people, services and industries, (ii) water for

  4. Hydrogeology, ground-water use, and ground-water levels in the Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schalk, Charles; Schumann, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Withdrawals of ground water in the central Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio, caused water-level declines of more than 100 feet by the 1950s. Since the 1950s, management practices have changed to reduce the withdrawals of ground water, and recovery of water levels in long-term monitoring wells in the valley has been documented. Changing conditions such as these prompted a survey of water use, streamflow conditions, and water levels in several aquifers in the central Mill Creek Valley, Hamilton and Butler Counties, Ohio. Geohydrologic information, water use, and water levels were compiled from historical records and collected during the regional survey. Data collected during the survey are presented in terms of updated geohydrologic information, water use in the study area, water levels in the aquifers, and interactions between ground water and surface water. Some of the data are concentrated at former Air Force Plant 36 (AFP36), which is collocated with the General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE) plant, and these data are used to describe geohydrology and water levels on a more local scale at and near the plant. A comparison of past and current ground-water use and levels indicates that the demand for ground water is decreasing and water levels are rising. Before 1955, most of the major industrial ground-water users had their own wells, ground water was mined from a confined surficial (lower) aquifer, and water levels were more than 100 feet below their predevelopment level. Since 1955, however, these users have been purchasing their water from the city of Cincinnati or a private water purveyor. The cities of Reading and Lockland, both producers of municipal ground-water supplies in the area, shut down their well fields within their city limits. Because the demand for ground-water supplies in the valley has lessened greatly since the 1950s, withdrawals have decreased, and, consequently, water levels in the lower aquifer are 65 to 105 feet higher than they were in 1955. During the time of the water-level survey (November 2000), ground water was being pumped from four locations in the lower aquifer, including three municipalities and one remediation site. Effects of pumping in those four areas were evident from the regional water-level data. Overall, the direction of ground-water flow in the lower aquifer is from northeast to southwest along the primary orientation of the Mill Creek Valley in the study area. Water levels in shallower surficial aquifers were mapped at local scales centered on GEAE. Examination of well logs indicated that these aquifers (called shallow and water-table) are discontinuous and, on a regional scale, few wells were completed in these aquifers. Water levels in the shallow aquifer indicated that flow was from northeast to southwest except in areas where pumping in the lower aquifer or the proximity of Mill Creek may have been affecting water levels in the shallow aquifer. Water levels in the water-table aquifer indicated flow toward Mill Creek from GEAE.

  5. An empirical method for predicting the mixing noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, J. W.

    1984-01-01

    An empirical method for predicting the static free field source noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jet flow streams is presented. The method was developed from an extensive data base of 817 jet tests obtained from five different government and industry sources in three nations. The prediction method defines the jet noise in terms of four components which are overall power level, power spectrum level, directivity index, and relative spectrum level. The values of these noise level components are defined on a grid consisting of seven frequency parameter values (Strouhal numbers) and seven directivity angles. The value of the noise level at each of these grid points is called a noise level coordinate and was defined as a function of five jet exhaust flow state parameters which are equivalent jet velocity, equivalent jet total temperature, the velocity ratio (outer stream to inner stream), temperature ratio, and area ratio. The functions were obtained by curve fitting in a least squares sense the noise level coordinates from the data base in a five dimensional flow state space using a third order Taylor series. The noise level coordinates define the component noise levels for all frequencies and directivities through a bicubic spline function.

  6. Shallow ground-water flow, water levels, and quality of water, 1980-84, Cowles Unit, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, D.A.; Shedlock, R.J.

    1986-01-01

    The Cowles Unit of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore in Porter County, northwest Indiana, contains a broad dune-beach complex along the southern shoreline of Lake Michigan and a large wetland, called the Great Marsh, that occupies the lowland between the shoreline dunes and an older dune-beach complex farther inland. Water levels and water quality in the surficial aquifer were monitored from 1977 to 1984 near settling ponds on adjacent industrial property at the western end of the Cowles Unit. Since 1980, when the settling pond bottoms were sealed, these intradunal lowlands contained standing water only during periods of high snowmelt or rainfall. Water level declines following the cessation of seepage ranged from 6 feet at the eastern-most settling pond to nearly 14 feet at the western-most pond. No general pattern of water table decline was observed in the Great Marsh or in the shoreline dune complex at distances > 3,000 ft east or north of the settling ponds. Since the settling ponds were sealed, the concentration of boron has decreased while concentrations of cadmium, arsenic, zinc, and molybdenum in shallow ground-water downgradient of the ponds show no definite trends in time. Arsenic, boron and molybdenum have remained at concentrations above those of shallow groundwater in areas unaffected by settling pond seepage. 11 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  7. NOAA tsunami water level archive - scientific perspectives and discoveries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mungov, G.; Eble, M. C.; McLean, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Currently, NGDC archives and processes high-resolution data recorded by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) network, the coastal-tide-gauge network from the National Ocean Service (NOS) as well as tide-gauge data recorded by all gauges in the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers' (TWCs) regional networks. The challenge in processing these data is that the observations from the deep-ocean, Pacific Islands, Alaska region, and United States West and East Coasts display commonalities, but, at the same time, differ significantly, especially when extreme events are considered. The focus of this work is on how time integration of raw observations (10-seconds to 1-minute) could mask extreme water levels. Analysis of the statistical and spectral characteristics obtained from records with different time step of integration will be presented. Results show the need to precisely calibrate the despiking procedure against raw data due to the significant differences in the variability of deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. It is shown that special attention should be drawn to the very strong water level declines associated with the passage of the North Atlantic cyclones. Strong changes for the deep ocean and for the West Coast have implications for data quality but these same features are typical for the East Coast regime.

  8. Subtidal variability in water levels inside a subtropical estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henrie, Krista; Valle-Levinson, Arnoldo

    2014-11-01

    Year-long time series of water level are analyzed at five locations along the St. Johns River Estuary, Florida, to investigate propagation of subtidal pulses. Hilbert-transformed Empirical Orthogonal Functions (HEOFs) are obtained after a dominant seasonal signal is extracted from the data. These functions provide information on spatial structure and propagation phase of subtidal water level pulses. The first HEOF mode explains 96% of the subtidal variability and features an unusual spatial structure: amplitude attenuation (averaging 1 mm/km) to 55 km upstream, slight amplification (0.16 mm/km) over the middle 70 km, and attenuation (2.3 mm/km) over the final 18 km of the estuary. The phase suggests a shift from progressive to quasi-standing wave behavior at 55 km from the estuary mouth. Additionally, local minima in the phase suggest two sources of subtidal forcing: the coastal ocean and the upstream end. An analytical model describing the evolution of long waves through a channel with frictional damping is fit to the amplitude of HEOF mode 1. Solutions are obtained as a function of two parameters: the nondimensional length of the basin, ?, and the nondimensional frictional depth, ?. Values of ? between 0.55 and 0.67 and ? between 1.45 and 1.7 provide the best fit with the HEOF results (1% error or less). These values indicate a highly frictional environment in which the average subtidal wavelength is 10 times the basin length. Subtidal pulses in this estuary, therefore, behave as damped waves that can be represented with idealized models.

  9. Accuracy of Boiling Water Reactor Sub channel Void Distribution Predictions

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kenneth Leung

    2009-01-01

    The ability to accurately predict the void fraction in a nuclear reactor plays a vital role in the field of nuclear safety. Specifically, high volumetric fractions of vapour in a reactor core can lead to a severe degradation in the ability of the coolant to remove heat from the fuel. Unfortunately, the behaviour of two-phase flow is complex and not

  10. Application of empirical predictive modeling using conventional and alternative fecal indicator bacteria in eastern North Carolina waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gonzalez, Raul; Conn, Kathleen E.; Crosswell, Joey; Noble, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Coastal and estuarine waters are the site of intense anthropogenic influence with concomitant use for recreation and seafood harvesting. Therefore, coastal and estuarine water quality has a direct impact on human health. In eastern North Carolina (NC) there are over 240 recreational and 1025 shellfish harvesting water quality monitoring sites that are regularly assessed. Because of the large number of sites, sampling frequency is often only on a weekly basis. This frequency, along with an 18–24 h incubation time for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) enumeration via culture-based methods, reduces the efficiency of the public notification process. In states like NC where beach monitoring resources are limited but historical data are plentiful, predictive models may offer an improvement for monitoring and notification by providing real-time FIB estimates. In this study, water samples were collected during 12 dry (n = 88) and 13 wet (n = 66) weather events at up to 10 sites. Statistical predictive models for Escherichiacoli (EC), enterococci (ENT), and members of the Bacteroidales group were created and subsequently validated. Our results showed that models for EC and ENT (adjusted R2 were 0.61 and 0.64, respectively) incorporated a range of antecedent rainfall, climate, and environmental variables. The most important variables for EC and ENT models were 5-day antecedent rainfall, dissolved oxygen, and salinity. These models successfully predicted FIB levels over a wide range of conditions with a 3% (EC model) and 9% (ENT model) overall error rate for recreational threshold values and a 0% (EC model) overall error rate for shellfish threshold values. Though modeling of members of the Bacteroidales group had less predictive ability (adjusted R2 were 0.56 and 0.53 for fecal Bacteroides spp. and human Bacteroides spp., respectively), the modeling approach and testing provided information on Bacteroidales ecology. This is the first example of a set of successful statistical predictive models appropriate for assessment of both recreational and shellfish harvesting water quality in estuarine waters.

  11. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and Mediterranean wet-dry events during this period. There are robust indications for a link between lake level and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is known to strongly influence Mediterranean winter precipitation. Hydro-climatic records show a complicated picture, but tentatively support the conclusion that the unprecedented lake level fall is principally related to climate change. The available fluvial discharge record and most existing snowfall records show statistically significant decreases in annual averages. Annual rainfall only shows a statistically significant decrease of the 25th percentile; 7-month rainfall (Oct-Apr) additionally shows a statistically significant but non-robust decrease of the mean. The modest amount of water extraction (annually: ~14*103m3, ~0.004% of total lake volume) exerts a progressive and significant impact on lake level over the longer term, accounting for ~25% of the observed fall. Lake level lowering ends when lake-surface area shrinkage has led to a decrease in lake-surface evaporation that is equivalent to the amount of water extracted. The adjustment of lake level to stable extraction rates requires two to three decades. This work aims to steer adaptation and mitigation strategies by informing on lake response under different climate change and extraction scenarios. Lake protection is a cost effective solution for supporting global biodiversity and for providing sustainable water resources.

  12. Water Resource Consumption at the NeighborhoodLevel: Perceived Versus Actual Water Scarcity Risks in Phoenix, Arizona

    E-print Network

    Hall, Sharon J.

    Water Resource Consumption at the NeighborhoodLevel: Perceived Versus Actual Water Scarcity Risks reveal a disconnect between residents' concern about water scarcity, perceived use, and actual demand not correlate with actual water scarcity risks, as they show low concern, low to moderate perceived use

  13. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF LIGHT-INDUCED MORTALITY OF ENTEROCOCCI FAECALIS IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One approach to predictive modeling of biological contamination of recreational waters involves the application of process-based approaches that consider microbial sources, hydrodynamic transport, and microbial fate. This presentation focuses on one important fate process, light-...

  14. Application of short-term water demand prediction model to Seoul.

    PubMed

    Joo, C N; Koo, J Y; Yu, M J

    2002-01-01

    To predict daily water demand for Seoul, Korea, the artificial neural network (ANN) was used. For the cross correlation, the factors affecting water demand such as maximum temperature, humidity, and wind speed as natural factors, holidays as a social factor and daily demand 1 day before were used. From the results of learning using various hidden layers and units in order to establish the structure of optimal ANN, the case of 3 hidden layers and numbers of unit with the same number of input factors showed the best result and, therefore, it was applied to seasonal water demand prediction. The performance of ANN was compared with a multiple regression method. We discuss the representation ability of the model building process and the applicability of the ANN approach for the daily water demand prediction. ANN provided reasonable results for time series prediction. PMID:12380999

  15. METHOD FOR QUANTIFYING THE PREDICTION UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH WATER QUALITY MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many environmental regulatory agencies depend on models to organize, understand, and utilize the information for regulatory decision-making. eneral analytical protocol was developed to quantify prediction rror associated with commonly used surface, water quality models. ts applic...

  16. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  17. Day 4 Estradiol Levels Predict Pregnancy Success in Women Undergoing Controlled Ovarian Hyperstimulation for IVF

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John Y Phelps; Adam S Levine; Timothy N Hickman; Howard A Zacur; Edward E Wallach; Endrika L Hinton

    1998-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the usefulness of serum estradiol levels obtained on the fourth day of gonadotropin stimulation in predicting the likelihood of pregnancy during controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) using luteal phase leuprolide acetate (LA).Design: A 4-year retrospective analysis of day 4 estradiol levels and subsequent clinical pregnancy and delivery rates.Setting: A university hospital tertiary referral center.Patient(s): Couples undergoing IVF treatment.Main

  18. Regional water table (1996) and water-level changes in the Mojave River, and Morongo, and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins, San Bernardino County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mendez, Gregory O.; Christensen, Allen H.

    1997-01-01

    The Mojave River, the Morongo, and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins lie in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert Region of southern California. These basins supply ground water to local water districts, military bases, and private wells. The rapid growth in population in these basins, which is due, in part, to their proximity toLos Angeles, has increased the demand for water and, therefore, the need to understand the Mojave ground-water systems. Ground-water conditions for the Mojave River, the Morongo, and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins for 1996 and areas with significant changes in water levels are identified in this report. Water-level data were compiled for 632 wells in the study area during January-September 1996 to define the water- table surface and direction of ground-watermovement. These data were used to construct the water-table map included in this report. Also shown on the map are 31 hydrographs that show long-term water-level changes in the study area. Short-term water-level changes were determined and a water- level change map was made by comparing 1996 ground-water conditions to 1990-94 conditions in the Mojave ground-water basin and to 1994 conditions in the Morongo and the Fort Irwin ground-water basins. In general, ground-water levels and the direction of ground-water movement in the regional aquifer have not changed significantly since previously published maps (1995). However, the short-term water level did change at specific locations in all three ground-water basins. Water levels in the Mojave River ground-water basin had a maximum rise during the period 1992-96 of 52 feet and a maximum decline of 28. Water levels in the Morongo ground-water basin had a maximum rise of 66 feet and a maximum decline of 57 feet. The Fort Irwin ground-water basins, however, had relatively little change in water level with a maximum rise of 6 feet and a maximum decline of 8 feet. Hydrographs in the regional aquifer systemindicate a decline or, in some areas, no change in the water table during the period of record. Water levels in the shallow alluvial aquifer, generally within 1 mile of the Mojave River, fluctuate in response to streamflow. Ground-water levels rise during wet periods, when floodflows in the Mojave River recharge the shallow alluvial aquifer.

  19. Predicting Crop Water Use from Ground Cover and Remote Sensing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Scheduling irrigations for horticultural crops with evapotranspiration calculations is difficult. Horticultural crops are grown under a wide range of cultural practices and conditions, making it difficult to select appropriate crop coefficients. A primary determinant of crop water use is light in...

  20. Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Stevenson, Samantha; DiNezio, Pedro; Langford, Sally

    2015-01-01

    The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.3. The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized essentially by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, damped persistence hindcasts following a 1st order Markov process are skillful with lead times of up to several years. This potential multi-year skill estimate is consistent with ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. The long-term potential predictability of soil water variations in combination with the slow regrowth of vegetation after major disruptions leads to enhanced predictability on decadal timescales for vegetation, terrestrial carbon stock, and fire frequency, in particular in the Southern United States (US)/Mexico region. By contrast, the prediction skill of fire frequency in the Northern US is limited to 1 year. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

  1. Spatial and temporal statistical analysis of a ground-water level network, Broward County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, E.D.; Sonenshein, R.S.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a method to evaluate the spatial and temporal statistics of a continuous ground-water level recorder network in Broward County, Florida. Because the Broward County network is sparse for most spatial statistics, a technique has been developed to define polygons for each well that represent the area monitored by the well within specified criteria. The boundaries of these "confidence polygons" are defined by the endpoints of radial lines oriented toward the other wells. The lengths of these lines are determined as the statistically estimated distances to the points at which ground-water levels can be predicted within specirfied criteria. The confidence polygons indicate: (1) the areal coverage of the network, (2) locations where data are unavailable, and (3) areas of redundant data collection. Comparison with data from a noncontinuous recorder well indicates that the confidence polygons are a good represen- tation of areal coverages. The temporal analysis utilizes statistical techniques similar to those used in the spatial method, defining variations in time rather than in space. Consequently, instead of defining radial distances to points, time intervals are defined over which water-level values can be predicted within a specified confidence. These "temporal confidence intervals" correspond to maximum allowable periods between field measure- ments. To combine all results from the analyses, a single coefficient reflecting the spatial and temporal results has been developed. The coefficient is referred to as the Spatial and Temporal Adequacy and Redundancy Evaluation (STARE) and is determined by three factors: the size of the confidence polygon, the number of times the well is part of a redundant pair, and the temporal confidence interval. This coefficient and the individual results of each analysis are used in evaluating the present network and determining future management decisions.

  2. Prediction of the water balance of two soil cover systems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Celestina Adu-Wusu; Ernest K. Yanful; Lisa Lanteigne; Mike O’Kane

    2007-01-01

    Soil cover systems are widely used for containment of municipal solid waste, hazardous and mine waste, with the objective\\u000a of limiting the ingress of precipitation and oxygen. The ability to predict their long-term performance is crucial, as their\\u000a failure would result in the release of contaminants to the environment. However, monitoring covers over the long term to derive\\u000a the information

  3. Predicted and Measured Modal Sound Power Levels for a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2010-01-01

    Refinements have been made to a method for estimating the modal sound power levels of a ducted fan ingesting distorted inflow. By assuming that each propagating circumferential mode consists only of a single radial mode (the one with the highest cut-off ratio), circumferential mode sound power levels can be computed for a variety of inflow distortion patterns and operating speeds. Predictions from the refined theory have been compared to data from an experiment conducted in the Advanced Noise Control Fan at NASA Glenn Research Center. The inflow to the fan was distorted by inserting cylindrical rods radially into the inlet duct. The rods were placed at an axial location one rotor chord length upstream of the fan and arranged in both regular and irregular circumferential patterns. The fan was operated at 2000, 1800, and 1400 rpm. Acoustic pressure levels were measured in the fan inlet and exhaust ducts using the Rotating Rake fan mode measurement system. Far field sound pressure levels were also measured. It is shown that predicted trends in circumferential mode sound power levels closely match the experimental data for all operating speeds and distortion configurations tested. Insight gained through this work is being used to develop more advanced tools for predicting fan inflow distortion tone noise levels.

  4. Low insulin-like growth factor-1 level predicts survival in humans with exceptional longevity

    PubMed Central

    Milman, Sofiya; Atzmon, Gil; Huffman, Derek M; Wan, Junxiang; Crandall, Jill P; Cohen, Pinchas; Barzilai, Nir

    2014-01-01

    Attenuated growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (GH/IGF-1) signaling is associated with extended lifespan in several animal models. However, the effect of diminished GH/IGF-1 activity on survival in humans has not been confirmed. We tested the hypothesis that IGF-1 levels in nonagenarians (n = 184), measured at study enrollment, predict the duration of their incremental survival. In the Kaplan–Meier analysis, females with IGF-1 levels below the median (? 96 ng mL?1) had significantly longer survival compared with females with levels above the median, P < 0.01. However, this survival advantage was not observed in males (P = 0.83). On the other hand, in both males and females with a history of cancer, lower IGF-1 levels predicted longer survival (P < 0.01). IGF-1 level remained a significant predictor of survival duration in linear regression models after multivariable adjustment in females (P = 0.01) and individuals with a history of cancer (P < 0.01). We show for the first time that low IGF-1 levels predict life expectancy in exceptionally long-lived individuals. PMID:24618355

  5. Low insulin-like growth factor-1 level predicts survival in humans with exceptional longevity.

    PubMed

    Milman, Sofiya; Atzmon, Gil; Huffman, Derek M; Wan, Junxiang; Crandall, Jill P; Cohen, Pinchas; Barzilai, Nir

    2014-08-01

    Attenuated growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (GH/IGF-1) signaling is associated with extended lifespan in several animal models. However, the effect of diminished GH/IGF-1 activity on survival in humans has not been confirmed. We tested the hypothesis that IGF-1 levels in nonagenarians (n = 184), measured at study enrollment, predict the duration of their incremental survival. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, females with IGF-1 levels below the median (? 96 ng mL(-1) ) had significantly longer survival compared with females with levels above the median, P < 0.01. However, this survival advantage was not observed in males (P = 0.83). On the other hand, in both males and females with a history of cancer, lower IGF-1 levels predicted longer survival (P < 0.01). IGF-1 level remained a significant predictor of survival duration in linear regression models after multivariable adjustment in females (P = 0.01) and individuals with a history of cancer (P < 0.01). We show for the first time that low IGF-1 levels predict life expectancy in exceptionally long-lived individuals. PMID:24618355

  6. Water levels in wells J-11 and J-12, 1989-91, Yucca Mountain Area, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Boucher, M.S.

    1994-12-31

    Water levels have been measured in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, since 1981 in order to gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow system in the area. Water levels in wells J-11 and J-12 have been periodically measured using calibrated reeled steel tapes since 1989, however, calculation of water-level altitude was not possible prior to 1993 due to missing reference elevations. These elevations were determined in 1993 by the U.S. Geological Survey. During 1989-91, water-level altitudes for well J-11 ranged from 732.09 to 732.40 meters and the mean water-level altitude was 732.19 meters. During 1989-91, water-level altitudes for well J-12 ranged from 727.84 to 728.03 meters, and the mean water-level altitude was 727.95 meters.

  7. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, Effects of pumping on water levels and on water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1984-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels in the southern part of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin declined more than 100 feet. These water-level declines resulted from increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The increase in municipal pumping was part of a basin-testing program designed to determine the usable quantity of ground water in storage. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines to altitudes below sea level in the main water-bearing zones. As a result, the ground-water basin would be subject to saltwater intrusion if the study-period pumpage were maintained or increased. Data indicate that saltwater intrusion has degraded the quality of the water yielded from six coastal wells. During the study period, the six coastal wells all yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 250 milligrams per liter, and four of the wells yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Previous investigators believed that saltwater intrusion was limited to the shallow part of the aquifer, directly adjacent to the coast. The possibility of saltwater intrusion into the deeper water-bearing deposits in the aquifer was thought to be remote because an offshore fault truncates these deeper deposits so that they lie against consolidated rocks on the seaward side of the fault. Results of this study indicate, however, that ocean water has intruded the deeper water-bearing deposits, and to a much greater extent than in the shallow part of the aquifer. Apparently the offshore fault is not an effective barrier to saltwater intrusion. No physical barriers are known to exist between the coast and the municipal well field. Therefore, if the pumping rate maintained during the basin-testing program were continued, the degraded water along the coast could move inland and contaminate the municipal supply wells. The time required for the degraded water to move from the coast to the nearest supply well is estimated, using Darcy's equation, to be about 20 years. Management alternatives for controlling saltwater intrusion in the Santa Barbara area include (1) decreasing municipal pumping, (2) increasing the quantity of water available for recharge by releasing surplus water from surface reservoirs to Mission Creek, (3) artificially recharging the basin using injection wells, and (4) locating municipal supply wells farther from the coast and spacing them farther apart in order to minimize drawdown. Continued monitoring of water levels and water quality would enable assessment of the effectiveness of the control measures employed.

  8. The effects of sea-level rise on water quality in coastal floodplain sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Vanessa; Johnston, Scott; Burton, Edward; Bush, Richard; Sullivan, Leigh; Slavich, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Sea level has risen approximately 1.2 mm/year over the last 100 years (Hennessy et al. 2004) and is predicted to rise up to 80 cm by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels (IPCC 2007). The number of extreme events related to sea level such as higher sea levels and increased inter-annual variability have also increased in frequency in the same time period (Hennessy et al. 2004). Globally, large areas of coastal and estuarine floodplains are underlain by sulfidic sediments and acid sulfate soils (ASS). These sediments frequently contain high concentrations of acidity and trace metals. A significant portion of the stored acidity occurs in the form of exchangeable and hydrolysable acidic metal cations such as Al and Fe. Watertables in these environments are often close to the surface and intercepted by relatively shallow drains. Due to their low elevation and locations, these floodplains are highly susceptible to pulses of saline water caused by saltwater intrusion, storm surge and rising sea levels. Construction of extensive drainage systems has further increased the susceptibility of the floodplain to seawater inundation by increasing connectivity to the estuarine channel. This risk is likely to increase in the future with predicted increases in sea level and extreme events due to climate change. This study uses both batch experiments to determine the effects of increasing ionic strength on exchange processes and trace metal desorption in oxidised floodplain sediments and sulfidic drain sediments, and intact soil cores to determine the surface water-porewater interactions over the short term following seawater inundation in coastal floodplain sediments. We found that that saline inundation of oxidised ASS floodplain sediments, even by relatively brackish water may cause rapid, shorter-term water quality changes and a pulse release of acidity due to desorption of acidic metal cations (Wong et al. 2010). We also found that trace metals can be mobilised from sulfidic estuarine drain sediments at near-neutral pH values without oxidation as a result of increased ionic strength and competitive desorption of metal cations (Wong et al. in press). Rapid seawater incursion in CASS drainage networks is likely to adversely impact drain water quality by increasing trace metal mobilization. Drainage networks on ASS floodplains are highly susceptible to rapid seawater inundation through storm surge, seasonal salt wedge migration, floodgate failure or floodgate opening. The experimental results show that the initial addition of marine derived salts will result in a decrease in pH and increase in trace metals, even at low salt concentrations such as that found in brackish waters in estuarine environments. References Hennessy K, Page C, McInnes K, Jones R, Bathols J, Collins D, Jones D (2004) Climate Change in New South Wales. In. CSIRO, Canberra. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. In: An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Wong VNL, Johnston SG, Burton ED, Bush RT, Sullivan LA, Slavich PG (2010) Seawater causes rapid trace metal mobilisation in coastal lowland acid sulfate soils: Implications of sea level rise for water quality. Geoderma 160(2): 252-263 Wong VNL, Johnston SG, Burton ED, Bush RT, Sullivan LA, Slavich PG (in press) Seawater-induced mobilization of trace metals from mackinawite-rich estuarine sediments. Water Research

  9. HYDRONMR: Prediction of NMR Relaxation of Globular Proteins from Atomic-Level Structures and Hydrodynamic Calculations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J Garc??a de la Torre; M. L. Huertas; B. Carrasco

    2000-01-01

    The heteronuclear NMR relaxation of globular proteins depends on the anisotropic rotational diffusion tensor. Using our previous developments for prediction of hydrodynamic properties of arbitrarily shaped particles, by means of bead models, we have constructed a computational procedure to calculate the rotational diffusion tensor and other properties of proteins from their detailed, atomic-level structure. From the atomic coordinates file used

  10. Prediction of county-level cancer incidence rates and counts in the United States

    Cancer.gov

    March 28, 2012 1:30 PM - 2:30 PM + Add to Outlook Calendar Speaker Binbing Yu, PhDChief, Biometry SectionLaboratory of Epidemiology, Demography, and BiometryNational Institute on Aging (NIA) Topic Prediction of county-level cancer incidence rates and

  11. Improved Climate Prediction through a System Level Understanding of Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems

    E-print Network

    Hubbard, Susan

    Improved Climate Prediction through a System Level Understanding of Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems understood and many remain uncertain in terms of their representation in Earth System models. Increasing our confidence in climate projections for high-latitude regions of the world will require a coordinated set

  12. Modified Impingement Test Can Predict the Level of Pain Reduction After Rotator Cuff Repair

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Joo Han Oh; Sae Hoon Kim; Kyung Hwan Kim; Chung Hee Oh; Hyun Sik Gong

    2010-01-01

    Background: Most patients experience a significant reduction in pain after rotator cuff repair. However, there is currently no method to predict the level of pain reduction that each patient will experience. This report explores the usefulness of the modified impingement test for prognosis in cases of rotator cuff repair.Hypothesis: The amount of pain reduction after injection of lidocaine into the

  13. Perceptions of Crowding: Predicting at the Residence, Neighborhood, and City Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Donald E.; And Others

    1979-01-01

    Details the results of a large-scale field study aimed at testing two theories on human crowding. Found that psychological factors are increasingly important for the prediction of crowding as one moved from the immediate residence to the less immediate city level. Implications, limitations and further results are discussed. (Author/MA)

  14. Regulation of Motivation: Predicting Students' Homework Motivation Management at the Secondary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2014-01-01

    This study examines models of variables posited to predict students' homework motivation management (HMM), based on survey data from 866 8th graders (61 classes) and 745 11th graders (46 classes) in the south-eastern USA. Most of the variance in HMM occurred at the student level, with parent education as the only significant predictor at the…

  15. Strength and Comprehensiveness of District School Wellness Policies Predict Policy Implementation at the School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Marlene B.; Henderson, Kathryn E.; Falbe, Jennifer; Novak, Sarah A.; Wharton, Christopher M.; Long, Michael W.; O'Connell, Meghan L.; Fiore, Susan S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: In 2006, all local education agencies in the United States participating in federal school meal programs were required to establish school wellness policies. This study documented the strength and comprehensiveness of 1 state's written district policies using a coding tool, and tested whether these traits predicted school-level…

  16. Predicting Trends in Retinol and Beta-Carotene Plasma Levels Using Neural Networks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Khosrow Kaikhah

    A novel knowledge discovery and prediction technique using neural networks is presented. A neural network is trained to learn the correlations among physical and dietary characteristics of several hundred people to their Retinol and Beta-Carotene Plasma Levels. The neural network is then pruned and modified to generalize the correlations and relationships existing in data. Finally, the neural network is used

  17. Efficient chip-level CMP models are required to predict dielectric planarization performance for arbitrary layouts

    E-print Network

    Boning, Duane S.

    Abstract Efficient chip-level CMP models are required to predict dielectric planarization performance for arbitrary layouts prior to CMP. We present an integrated calibration and mod- eling of the pad during polish. We also include a layout feature biasing term, B, to adjust the layout density

  18. High Level Describable Attributes for Predicting Aesthetics and Interestingness Sagnik Dhar Vicente Ordonez Tamara L Berg

    E-print Network

    Berg, Tamara L.

    High Level Describable Attributes for Predicting Aesthetics and Interestingness Sagnik Dhar Vicente exponen- tially. Some of these pictures are extremely beautiful and aesthetically pleasing, but the vast to automatically select high aesthetic quality images from large image collections. Our aesthetic quality

  19. Predictive Monitoring for Improved Management of Glucose Levels Jaques Reifman, Ph.D.,1

    E-print Network

    478 Predictive Monitoring for Improved Management of Glucose Levels Jaques Reifman, Ph.D.,1 Srinivasan Rajaraman, Ph.D.,1 Andrei Gribok, Ph.D.,1 and W. Kenneth Ward, M.D.2 Author Affiliations: 1 Bioinformatics Cell, Telemedicine and Advanced Technology Research Center, U.S. Army Medical Research

  20. NAPS: a residue-level nucleic acid-binding prediction server

    E-print Network

    Lu, Hui

    NAPS: a residue-level nucleic acid-binding prediction server Matthew B. Carson, Robert Langlois achieved 79.1% accuracy, while the RNA-binding model reached an accuracy of 73.2%. The NAPS web server is freely available at http://proteomics.bioengr.uic.edu/NAPS. INTRODUCTION Nucleic acid-binding (NA

  1. Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Niall; Lewis, Matthew; Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk In this research we assess the temporal variability in the time-series of extreme water levels at 44 A- Class tide gauges around the UK. Extreme (> 99th percentile) storm tide events, sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 minutes between 1993 and 2012, were analysed at each site, and the variability in elevation relative to a given event storm tide peak was quantified. The magnitude of the variability in the time-series was found to be both spatially variable across the UK, and temporally variable relative to the time of the high water. Boundary water levels associated with a range of event magnitudes at case study locations around the UK were used to force two-dimensional hydrodynamic models to examine the importance of storm tide time-series uncertainty to flood risk predictions. The comparison of inundation extent, depth, and number of buildings affected demonstrated the importance of accurately defining the duration and magnitude of defence exceedance. For example, given a current 1 in 200 year event magnitude at Portsmouth (UK), the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the 5th percentile time-series relative to those forced with the 95th percentile time-series. The results clearly indicate that variability in the time-series of the storm tide can have considerable influence upon the duration and magnitude by which defences are exceeded, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the 5th and 95th percentile time-series defined in this research provide a tool for coastal flood modellers. Only defence overflow-induced inundation was examined in this research. However, it is expected that variability in storm tide time-series will also have important implications on other processes of interest to flood risk, including defence failure, wave-induced overtopping, and sediment transport in the nearshore region.

  2. Supervised prediction of drug-induced nephrotoxicity based on interleukin-6 and -8 expression levels

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Drug-induced nephrotoxicity causes acute kidney injury and chronic kidney diseases, and is a major reason for late-stage failures in the clinical trials of new drugs. Therefore, early, pre-clinical prediction of nephrotoxicity could help to prioritize drug candidates for further evaluations, and increase the success rates of clinical trials. Recently, an in vitro model for predicting renal-proximal-tubular-cell (PTC) toxicity based on the expression levels of two inflammatory markers, interleukin (IL)-6 and -8, has been described. However, this and other existing models usually use linear and manually determined thresholds to predict nephrotoxicity. Automated machine learning algorithms may improve these models, and produce more accurate and unbiased predictions. Results Here, we report a systematic comparison of the performances of four supervised classifiers, namely random forest, support vector machine, k-nearest-neighbor and naive Bayes classifiers, in predicting PTC toxicity based on IL-6 and -8 expression levels. Using a dataset of human primary PTCs treated with 41 well-characterized compounds that are toxic or not toxic to PTC, we found that random forest classifiers have the highest cross-validated classification performance (mean balanced accuracy = 87.8%, sensitivity = 89.4%, and specificity = 85.9%). Furthermore, we also found that IL-8 is more predictive than IL-6, but a combination of both markers gives higher classification accuracy. Finally, we also show that random forest classifiers trained automatically on the whole dataset have higher mean balanced accuracy than a previous threshold-based classifier constructed for the same dataset (99.3% vs. 80.7%). Conclusions Our results suggest that a random forest classifier can be used to automatically predict drug-induced PTC toxicity based on the expression levels of IL-6 and -8. PMID:25521947

  3. Effect of vertical resolution on predictions of transpiration in water-limited ecosystems

    E-print Network

    Guswa, Andrew J.

    Effect of vertical resolution on predictions of transpiration in water-limited ecosystems Andrew J the vegetation root zone. Average transpiration in such environments is controlled by precipitation, and accurate of vertical resolution on predictions of transpiration, we conduct a series of numerical experiments

  4. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model to Forest Conditions

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Joan Q. Wu; William J. Elliot

    2006-01-01

    Abstract.Adequate and reliable erosion prediction tools are needed for sound forest resources management. Numerous watershed models have been developed during the past. These models, however, are often limited in their applications largely due to their inappropriate representations of the hydrological processes involved. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model has demonstrated its usefulness in certain forest applications, such as modeling

  5. Applying an Artificial Neural Network to Predict Total Body Water in Hemodialysis Patients

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jainn-Shiun Chiu; Chee-Fah Chong; Yuh-Feng Lin; Chia-Chao Wu; Yuh-Feng Wang; Yu-Chuan Li

    2005-01-01

    Background: Estimating total body water (TBW) is crucial in determining dry weight and dialytic dose for hemodialysis patients. Several anthropometric equations have been used to predict TBW, but a more accurate method is needed. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict TBW in hemodialysis patients. Methods: Demographic data, anthropometric measurements, and multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MF-BIA) were investigated

  6. The measurement and prediction of heat transfer in a turbulent boundary layer in water

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Keith Hollingsworth; William M. Kays; Robert J. Moffat

    1989-01-01

    A baseline thermal boundary layer in water is documented and compared to the experimentally determined behavior with that predicted using a computational model accepted by the heat transfer design community. The predictions of STAN6, a finite-difference code using a standard mixing length model, compare well with the measurements of both the Stanton number distributions and the mean temperature profiles. These

  7. Adapting to Climate ChangeAdapting to Climate Change ExtremeExtreme Water Levels, Invasive Species andWater Levels, Invasive Species and

    E-print Network

    Sheridan, Jennifer

    Adapting to Climate ChangeAdapting to Climate Change ­­ ExtremeExtreme Water Levels, Invasive." IPCC Risk management is the framework to discuss adaptation to climate change impacts. Risk The Water Resources Working Group will assess and synthesize climate change impacts to Wisconsin's water

  8. Construal Levels and Psychological Distance: Effects on Representation, Prediction, Evaluation, and Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira; Wakslak, Cheryl

    2011-01-01

    Construal level theory (CLT) is an account of how psychological distance influences individuals’ thoughts and behavior. CLT assumes that people mentally construe objects that are psychologically near in terms of low-level, detailed, and contextualized features, whereas at a distance they construe the same objects or events in terms of high-level, abstract, and stable characteristics. Research has shown that different dimensions of psychological distance (time, space, social distance, and hypotheticality) affect mental construal and that these construals, in turn, guide prediction, evaluation, and behavior. The present paper reviews this research and its implications for consumer psychology. PMID:21822366

  9. An analytical solution of groundwater level fluctuation in coastal aquifer bounded by three water-land boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, H.; Huang, F.; Chuang, M.

    2013-12-01

    The prediction of water level fluctuation induced by oceanic tide in coastal aquifers is important for groundwater development and management. A two-dimensional analytical model is developed to describe tidal groundwater fluctuations in an aquifer bounded by three water-land boundaries that form a U-shaped coastline. Two of the water-land boundaries are estuarine boundaries with water levels subject to the effect of ocean tide and the other is essentially a tidal boundary. The analytical solution of the model derived herein may be considered as an extended work of two existing solutions; one was developed by Sun (Sun H. A two-dimensional analytical solution of groundwater response to tidal loading in an estuary, Water Resour. Res. 1997; 33:1429-35) for two-dimensional non-interacting tidal waves while the other is by Li et al. (Li et al. Tide-induced groundwater level fluctuation in coastal aquifers bounded by L-shaped coastlines, Water Resour. Res. 2002; 38:6-1-6-8) for two-dimensional interacting tidal waves of coastal aquifer adjacent to a cross-shore estuary. Based on the present solution, the joint effects of those three boundaries on the aquifer water level fluctuation are examined. In addition, the range of interaction zone can be clearly identified by the present solution according to the hydraulic properties of the aquifer and the propagation of the tidal wave.

  10. Water Levels In Major Artesian Aquifers Of The New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1988

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosman, Robert; Lacombe, Pierre J.; Storck, Donald A.

    1995-01-01

    Water levels in 1,251 wells in the New Jersey Coastal Plain, Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, and Kent and New Castle Counties, Delaware, were measured from October 1988 to February 1989 and compared with 1,071 water levels measured from September 1983 to May 1984. Water levels in 916 of the wells measured in the 1983 study were remeasured in the 1988 study. Alternate wells were selected to replace wells used in 1983 that were inaccessible at the time of the water-level measurements in 1988 or had been destroyed. New well sites were added in strategic locations to increase coverage where possible. Large cones of depression have formed or expanded in the nine major artesian aquifers that underlie the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Water levels are shown on nine potentiometric-surface maps. Hydrographs for observation wells typically show water-level declines for 1983, through 1989. In the confined Cohansey aquifer, the lowest water level, 20 feet below sea level, was measured in a well located at Cape May City Water Department, Cape May County. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand declined as much as 21 feet at Ventnor, Atlantic County, over the 6-year period from the 1983 study to this study for 1988. Water levels in the Piney Point aquifer were as low as 56 feet below sea level at Seaside Park, Ocean County; 45 feet below sea level in southern Cumberland County; and 28 feet below sea level at Margate, Atlantic County. Water levels in the Vincentown aquifer did not change over the 6-year period. The lowest water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and the Englishtown aquifer system were 218 feet and 256 feet below sea level, respectively. Large cones of depression in the Potomac- Raritan-Magothy aquifer system are centered in the Camden County area and the Middlesex and Monmouth County area. Water levels declined as much as 46 feet in these areas over the 6-year period.

  11. A FINITE ELEMENT SOFTWARE FOR PREDICTING WATER TABLE HEIGHT BETWEEN PARALLEL DRAINS1

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Paulo Jorge Castanheira; Francisco Lúcio Santos

    2003-01-01

    A two dimensional saturated-unsaturated Galerkin finite element numerical model was used to predict water table height between parallel drains. A user-friendly software (DRENAFEM) was developed to allow for the calculation of the distance between drains and the water table height at middle space between drains. It also allows for determination of variations of the total head throughout the entire geometric

  12. WAVENUMBER PREDICTION OF WAVES IN BURIED PIPES FOR WATER LEAK DETECTION

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. M. MUGGLETON; M. J. BRENNAN; R. J. PINNINGTON

    2002-01-01

    Water leaks are a topic of great concern in Britain and many other countries, because of decreasing water supplies and the deterioration of old pipework. Correlation techniques are widely used in leak detection, but for these to be effective, the propagation wavespeeds and wave attenuation must be known. Relatively predictable for metal pipes, these are largely unknown for the newer

  13. PREDICTING THE PERFORMANCE OF AN ELEVATED WATER TABLE FOR PREVENTING ACID

    E-print Network

    Aubertin, Michel

    PREDICTING THE PERFORMANCE OF AN ELEVATED WATER TABLE FOR PREVENTING ACID MINE DRAINAGE M. The effectiveness of an elevated water table in preventing acid mine drainage (AMD) can be quantified using diffusion de l'oxygène en milieu quasi saturé. Cette efficacité à empêcher le drainage minier acide (DMA

  14. A Simulation Model for Predicting the Performance of a Built-in-Storage Solar Water Heater

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Pachern Jans; Supachart Chungpaibulpatana; Bundit Limmeechokchai

    This paper describes a simulation model for predicting the thermal performance of a built-in- storage (BIS) solar water heater. The model has been developed based on the energy balances on three main components: absorber plate, collector channel and storage tank. The thermosyphon flow rate of water in the system has also been modeled and an overall flow coefficient K7 is

  15. A Split-Step PSO Algorithm in Prediction of Water Quality Pollution

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kwok-wing Chau

    2005-01-01

    Abstr act. In order to allow the key stakeholders to have more float time to take appropriate precautionary and preventive measures, an accurate prediction of water quality pollution is very significant. Since a variety of existing water quality models involve exogenous input and different assumptions, artificial neural networks have the potential to be a cost-effective solution. This paper presents the

  16. A Model for Predicting Daily Peak Visitation and Implications for Recreation Management and Water Quality: Evidence

    E-print Network

    carrying capacity. Keywords Visitation model Á Recreation management Á Water quality Á River visitation ÁA Model for Predicting Daily Peak Visitation and Implications for Recreation Management and Water Quality: Evidence from Two Rivers in Puerto Rico Luis E. Santiago � Armando Gonzalez-Caban � John Loomis

  17. Implementation of Channel-Routing Routines in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, continuous-simulation, watershed hydrology and erosion model. It is an important tool for water erosion simulation owing to its unique functionality in representing diverse landuse and management conditions. Its applicability is l...

  18. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  19. Nitrates in drinking water and methemoglobin levels in pregnancy: a longitudinal study

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Deana M Manassaram; Lorraine C Backer; Rita Messing; Lora E Fleming; Barbara Luke; Carolyn P Monteilh

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Private water systems are more likely to have nitrate levels above the maximum contaminant level (MCL). Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to the effects of exposure to high levels of nitrates in drinking water due to their altered physiological states. The level of methemoglobin in the blood is the biomarker often used in research for assessing exposure to nitrates.

  20. The Impact of Climate Change on Great Lakes Water Levels Region: Great Lakes

    E-print Network

    The Impact of Climate Change on Great Lakes Water Levels Region: Great Lakes Grade Level(s): 9 on the Great Lakes? Learning Objectives: · The students will construct and explain theories for the decline in water level of the Great Lakes. · The students will be able to describe the effects of global warming

  1. Altered levels of CC chemokines during pulmonary CMV predict BOS and mortality post-lung transplantation.

    PubMed

    Weigt, S S; Elashoff, R M; Keane, M P; Strieter, R M; Gomperts, B N; Xue, Y Y; Ardehali, A; Gregson, A L; Kubak, B; Fishbein, M C; Saggar, R; Ross, D J; Lynch, J P; Zisman, D A; Belperio, J A

    2008-07-01

    Pulmonary CMV infection (CMVI) and disease (CMVD) is associated with reduced long-term survival post-lung transplantation, however, the specific biologic mechanisms remain unclear. We have demonstrated a role of CC chemokines during lung allograft dysfunction. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that pulmonary CMV upregulates the expression of multiple CC chemokines that leads to allograft dysfunction and decreased long-term survival. We performed a nested case control study in lung transplant recipients to investigate alterations in CC chemokine biology during pulmonary CMV. Levels of CC chemokines were measured in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from recipients with CMVI (n = 33), CMVD (n = 6), and in healthy lung transplant controls (n = 33). We found a trend toward increased levels of MIP-1alpha/CCL3 during pulmonary CMVI. Levels of MCP-1/CCL2 and RANTES/CCL5 were significantly elevated during pulmonary CMV. Interestingly, elevated levels of CCL3 in BALF were protective with regards to survival. Importantly, elevated levels of CCL2 in BALF predicted the development of BOS, while elevated levels of CCL5 in BALF predicted an increase in mortality post-lung transplant. Altered levels of specific CC chemokines during pulmonary CMV are associated with future clinical outcomes. These results suggest a possible utility of BALF CC chemokines as biomarkers for guiding risk assessment during pulmonary CMV post-lung transplantation. PMID:18513272

  2. Predicting the Health of a Natural Water System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Gregory H.

    2010-01-01

    This project was developed as an interdisciplinary application of the optimization of a single-variable function. It was used in a freshman-level single-variable calculus course. After the first month of the course, students had been exposed to the concepts of the derivative as a rate of change, average and instantaneous velocities, derivatives of…

  3. Implementing algorithms for modelling and prediction of sea level change using threshold models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hewelt, M.; Mizi?ski, B.; Niedzielski, T.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this work is to present how threshold time series models can be used to model sea level change recorded in gridded time series data and to predict such time-varying maps. This task is carried out mostly in R, the Language and Environment, using satellite altimetric gridded time series from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO). During El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and cold episodes sea level anomalies exceed certain thresholds, principally in the equatorial Pacific and in the tropical Indian Ocean. This encourages to use threshold autoregressive models to predict sea level change, particularly in the aforementioned locations. It is likely, however, that during the ENSO mode one should use the models which differ from those suitable for normal environmental conditions. Associated with this is a notion of threshold that allows one to determine various models if a certain limit value is attained or exceeded. Firstly, having the global mean sea level anomaly data spanning the time interval from 1992 onwards, available courtesy of AVISO, the autoregressive threshold model is fitted in R. Subsequently, the global mean sea level change univariate time series is forecasted, and various lead times are adopted. Secondly, based on the gridded delayed-time data as well as their near-real time equivalents provided by AVISO, predictions of sea level change determined as a function of latitude and longitude, and with various lead times, are produced. Due to the fact, that the near-real time data are being automatically updated at the local server in Wroclaw, Poland, it is possible to generate new predictions every day automatically. Such a forecasting process, which intrinsically involves the automated verification and quality control modules, is based on the above-mentioned threshold models as well as polynomial-harmonic deterministic empirical functions.

  4. Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt.

    PubMed

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S; Znoj, Hansjörg

    2013-06-01

    This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks. PMID:23501139

  5. Water levels in continuously monitored wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1985--88

    SciTech Connect

    Luckey, R.R.; Lobmeyer, D.H.; Burkhardt, D.J.

    1993-07-01

    Water levels have been monitored hourly in 15 wells completed in 23 depth intervals in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada. Water levels were monitored using pressure transducers and were recorded by data loggers. The pressure transducers were periodically calibrated by raising and lowering them in the wells. The water levels were normally measured at approximately the same time that the transducers were calibrated. Where the transducer output appeared reasonable, it was converted to water levels using the calibrations and manual water- level measurements. The amount of transducer output that was converted to water levels ranged from zero for several intervals to about 98 percent for one interval. Fourteen of the wells were completed in Tertiary volcanic rocks and one well was completed in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Each well monitored from one to four depth intervals. Water-level fluctuation caused by barometric pressure changes and earth tides were observed.

  6. Prediction of partitioning between complex organic mixtures and water: application of polyparameter linear free energy relationships

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Satoshi Endo; Torsten C. Schmidt

    2006-01-01

    Equilibrium partitioning between nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) and water is a governing process for contaminants leaching from NAPLs. This study introduces a polyparameter linear free energy relationship (PP-LFER) approach as a more general tool to predict NAPL-water partitioning coefficients. The approach was evaluated using 441 experimental partitioning data from 30 references. Experimental fuel-water partitioning coefficients were generally well reproduced by

  7. A Noise Level Prediction Method Based on Electro-Mechanical Frequency Response Function for Capacitors

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

  8. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, Wim; Prinsen, Geert.; Hoogewoud, Jacco; Veldhuizen, Ab; Ruijgh, Erik; Kroon, Timo

    2013-04-01

    Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with? by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the rules for manmade re-direction of surface water, schematizations & parameters included in the model. This is carried out in workshops and in one-to-one expert meetings on regional models & the NHI. All results of NHI are presented on the internet and any expert may suggest improvements to the model. The final goal of the involvement of regional parties is the acceptation by decision impact receiving authorities

  9. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, W. J.

    2014-05-01

    Wim J. de Lange, Geert F. Prinsen, Jacco H. Hoogewoud, Ab A Veldhuizen, Joachim Hunink, Erik F.W. Ruijgh, Timo Kroon Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the rules for manmade re-direction of surface water, schematizations & parameters included in the model. This is carried out in workshops and in one-to-one expert meetings on regional models & the NHI. All results of NHI are presented on the internet and any expert may suggest improvements to the model. The final goal of the involvement of regional parties is the acceptation by decision impact receiving authorities. The presentation will give an overview of the experiences and results of the participation process both technically and in the national policy making context.

  10. Investigations on boron levels in drinking water sources in China

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ren-ji Xu; Xiao-ru Xing; Qun-fang Zhou; Gui-bin Jiang; Fu-sheng Wei

    2010-01-01

    To evaluate boron contamination of public drinking water in China, both dissolved and total boron contents in 98 public drinking\\u000a water sources from 49 cities, 42 brands of bottled water samples from supermarkets in several cities, and 58 water samples\\u000a from boron industrial area were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Our experimental results\\u000a showed that boron existed in

  11. Model analysis of effects on water levels at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by construction dewatering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marie, James R.

    1976-01-01

    The computer models were developed to investigate possible hydrologic effects within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by planned dewatering at the adjacent Bailly Nuclear Generator construction site. The model analysis indicated that the planned dewatering would cause a drawdown of about 4 ft under the westernmost pond of the Lakeshore and that this drawdown would cause the pond to go almost dry--less than 0.5 ft of water remaining in about 1 percent of the pond--under average conditions during the 18-month dewatering period. When water levels are below average, as during late July and early August 1974, the pond would go dry in about 5.5 months. However, the pond may not have to go completely dry to damage the ecosystem. If the National Park Service 's independent study determines the minimum pond level at which ecosystem damage would be minimized, the models developed in this study could be used to predict the hydrologic conditions necessary to maintain that level. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. REDUCING ARSENIC LEVELS IN DRINKING WATER: APPROACHES AND CONSIDERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recently promulgated Arsenic Rule will require that many new drinking water systems treat their water to remove arsenic. It has been projected that the State of Ohio will have nearly 140 community and non-community non-transient water systems in violation of the Rule. This ...

  13. A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera

    PubMed Central

    JUTLA, ANTARPREET; AKANDA, ALI SHAFQAT; HUQ, ANWAR; FARUQUE, ABU SYED GOLAM; COLWELL, RITA; ISLAM, SHAFIQUL

    2013-01-01

    The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions. PMID:23878762

  14. Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, D.H.

    2000-01-01

    We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

  15. Regional Water Table (2002) and Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River and Morongo Ground-Water Basins, Southwestern Mojave Desert, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Gregory A.; Stamos, Christina L.; Predmore, Steven K.

    2004-01-01

    The Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently, water availability. During 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,500 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with previous data, changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from about 600 wells, providing coverage for most of the basins. Twenty-eight hydrographs show long-term (up to 70 years) water-level conditions throughout the basins, and 9 short-term (1997 to 2002) hydrographs show the effects of recharge and discharge along the Mojave River. In addition, a water-level-change map was compiled to compare 2000 and 2002 water levels throughout the basins. In the Mojave River ground-water basin, about 66 percent of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more since 2000 and about 27 percent of the wells had water-level declines greater than 5 ft. The only area that had water-level increases greater than 5 ft that were not attributed to fluctuations in nearby pumpage was in the Harper Lake (dry) area where there has been a significant reduction in pumpage during the last decade. In the Morongo ground-water basin, about 36 percent of the wells had water-level declines of 0.5 ft or more and about 10 percent of the wells had water-level declines greater than 5 ft. Water-level increases greater than 5 ft were measured only in the Warren subbasin, where artificial-recharge operations have caused water levels to rise almost 60 ft since 2000.

  16. Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

  17. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system science approach. The system consists of the following elements: (1) the measurement of sea level relative to the land, (2) the measurement of the main components of the ice mass contribution to sea level (i.e. surface mass balance and ice dynamics), (3) the steric contribution to sea level, (4) the mechanisms determining the geographic distribution of sea level change; and (5) the integration of these observations in advanced numerical models for hindcast and projection of sea level change. This global observing system will be discussed in the presentation.

  18. Comparative evaluation of set-level techniques in predictive classification of gene expression samples

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Analysis of gene expression data in terms of a priori-defined gene sets has recently received significant attention as this approach typically yields more compact and interpretable results than those produced by traditional methods that rely on individual genes. The set-level strategy can also be adopted with similar benefits in predictive classification tasks accomplished with machine learning algorithms. Initial studies into the predictive performance of set-level classifiers have yielded rather controversial results. The goal of this study is to provide a more conclusive evaluation by testing various components of the set-level framework within a large collection of machine learning experiments. Results Genuine curated gene sets constitute better features for classification than sets assembled without biological relevance. For identifying the best gene sets for classification, the Global test outperforms the gene-set methods GSEA and SAM-GS as well as two generic feature selection methods. To aggregate expressions of genes into a feature value, the singular value decomposition (SVD) method as well as the SetSig technique improve on simple arithmetic averaging. Set-level classifiers learned with 10 features constituted by the Global test slightly outperform baseline gene-level classifiers learned with all original data features although they are slightly less accurate than gene-level classifiers learned with a prior feature-selection step. Conclusion Set-level classifiers do not boost predictive accuracy, however, they do achieve competitive accuracy if learned with the right combination of ingredients. Availability Open-source, publicly available software was used for classifier learning and testing. The gene expression datasets and the gene set database used are also publicly available. The full tabulation of experimental results is available at http://ida.felk.cvut.cz/CESLT. PMID:22759420

  19. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2002--Volume 2: Continuous ground-water-level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Leeth, David C.; Peck, Michael F.

    2002-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2002 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2002, including: discharge records of 154 gaging stations; stage for 165 gaging stations; precipitation for 105 gaging stations; information for 20 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 27 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 72 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 50 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2002, including continuous water-level records of 155 ground-water wells and periodic records at 132 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  20. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, H.; Wade, J.

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or 'plant') in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10 to 30 percent of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Five houses near Syracuse NY were monitored. Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  1. Plasma IGFBP-2 Levels after Postoperative Combined Radiotherapy and Chemotherapy Predict Prognosis in Elderly Glioblastoma Patients

    PubMed Central

    Han, Sheng; Meng, Lingxuan; Han, Shuai; Wang, Yunjie; Wu, Anhua

    2014-01-01

    It has been found that preoperative plasma IGFBP-2 levels correlate with prognosis in glioma patients. The prognostic value of plasma IGFBP-2 after postoperative combined radiotherapy and chemotherapy in glioma patients is unknown. Plasma IGFBP-2 levels in 83 glioblastoma patients after postoperative radiotherapy plus chemotherapy were analyzed using an IGFBP-2 ELISA kit. We found that after standard therapy plasma IGFBP-2 levels significantly correlated with the patient's age (R?=?0.738, P<0.001) and Karnofsky performance status (KPS, R?=??0.633, P<0.05). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) of death according to plasma IGFBP-2 levels adjusted for patient clinical characteristics. Plasma IGFBP-2 levels significantly correlated with overall survival in glioblastoma patients (multivariate HR?=?1.035; 95% CI, 1.024–1.047; P<0.001). The effect of plasma IGFBP-2 levels on survival seemed to differ according to patients' age. Among patients older than 60, high plasma IGFBP-2 levels were associated with a significant increase in overall mortality (HR?=?1.097; 95% CI, 1.055–1.140; P<0.001). In contrast, plasma IGFBP-2 levels conferred no significant effect on mortality among patients younger than 60. Elevated plasma IGFBP-2 levels after combined postoperative radiotherapy and chemotherapy in elderly glioblastoma patients correlate with poor KPS score and predicts poor prognosis. PMID:24690948

  2. Plasma oxytocin levels predict social cue recognition in individuals with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Strauss, Gregory P; Keller, William R; Koenig, James I; Gold, James M; Frost, Katherine H; Buchanan, Robert W

    2015-03-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  3. Using land surface model and satellite observations to simulate lake water level and thermal variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Subin, Z. M.

    2011-12-01

    In this study, lakes are included in a coupled routing model and catchment-based land surface model (CHARMS), which is modified from the land-surface component (CLM4) of an Earth system model (CESM1). In the routing scheme, lakes are connected with rivers using upstream/downstream relationships in a lake basin. Evaporation, precipitation, and river runoff are modeled in order to close the lake water budget. However, the original lake model in CLM4 poorly predicts the lake temperature, which highly affects the evaporation and surface energy fluxes. Using an improved lake model (CLM4-LISSS) the lake water temperature and surface energy flux are better predicted. This new version of CHARMS is tested on several large lakes around the world (e.g., the Great Lakes, and Lake Victoria) to evaluate its performance in different climate zones. Modeled lake level time series are compared with satellite altimetry. In order to test the ability of CHARMS to simulating the variations of lake temperature, we compare the amount of thermal expansion calculated from modeled lake temperature with the amount of thermal expansion determined from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and satellite altimetry data.

  4. Records of water levels in monitoring wells in the Gallatin Valley, southwestern Montana, 1947-93

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slagle, Steven E.

    1994-01-01

    Water-level data were collected in the Gallatin Valley to provide a basis for evaluation of the configuration of the ground-water surface and water-level change. Water-level records collected during a 2-year study of the area and historical water-level data for 121 wells in the Gallatin Valley are summarized in the report. Well-depth and primary-aquifer data are included. The locations of the wells are shown on a map at a scale of 1:275,500.

  5. Effects of soil data resolution on SWAT model stream flow and water quality predictions.

    PubMed

    Geza, Mengistu; McCray, John E

    2008-08-01

    The prediction accuracy of agricultural nonpoint source pollution models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) depends on how well model input spatial parameters describe the characteristics of the watershed. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of different soil data resolutions on stream flow, sediment and nutrient predictions when used as input for SWAT. SWAT model predictions were compared for the two US Department of Agriculture soil databases with different resolution, namely the State Soil Geographic database (STATSGO) and the Soil Survey Geographic database (SSURGO). Same number of sub-basins was used in the watershed delineation. However, the number of HRUs generated when STATSGO and SSURGO soil data were used is 261 and 1301, respectively. SSURGO, with the highest spatial resolution, has 51 unique soil types in the watershed distributed in 1301 HRUs, while STATSGO has only three distributed in 261 HRUS. As a result of low resolution STATSGO assigns a single classification to areas that may have different soil types if SSURGO were used. SSURGO included Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) with soil types that were generalized to one soil group in STATSGO. The difference in the number and size of HRUs also has an effect on sediment yield parameters (slope and slope length). Thus, as a result of the discrepancies in soil type and size of HRUs stream flow predicted was higher when SSURGO was used compared to STATSGO. SSURGO predicted less stream loading than STATSGO in terms of sediment and sediment-attached nutrients components, and vice versa for dissolved nutrients. When compared to mean daily measured flow, STATSGO performed better relative to SSURGO before calibration. SSURGO provided better results after calibration as evaluated by R(2) value (0.74 compared to 0.61 for STATSGO) and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of Efficiency (NSE) values (0.70 and 0.61 for SSURGO and STATSGO, respectively) although both are in the same satisfactory range. Modelers need to weigh the benefits before selecting the type of data resolution they are going to use depending on the watershed size and level of accuracy required because more effort is required to prepare and calibrate the model when a fine resolution soil data is used. PMID:17475392

  6. Investigating Storm-Induced Total Water Levels on Complex Barred Beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

    2013-12-01

    Water levels in coastal environments are not static, but rather vary from a range of factors including mean sea level, tides, storm surge, and wave runup. Cumulatively these superimposed factors determine the total water level (TWL), the extent of which has major implications for coastal erosion and inundation during periods of high energy. Storm-induced, super-elevated water levels pose a threat to low lying coastal regions, as clearly demonstrated by recent events such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. For this reason, the ability to accurately predict the TWL is crucial for both emergency managers and coastal planners. While some components of TWL are well understood (e.g., tides) there is still significant uncertainty in predicting runup, a process that can be a major contributor to instantaneous TWLs. Traditionally, empirical relationships derived from observational field data have been used to estimate runup, including wave setup and both incident and infragravity swash (Stockdon et al., 2006). While these formulations have shown skill in predicting the runup extent on natural beaches, these equations consider only the most basic contributing factors - namely the mean foreshore beach slope, the offshore wave height, and offshore wave period. Not included in these empirical estimates is the role of nearshore morphology on TWLs. However, it has long been recognized that nearshore sandbars act as natural barriers to coastal erosion during storm events by dissipating wave energy far from the beach face. Nonetheless, the influence of nearshore morphology on inner surf zone processes, including wave runup, is poorly understood. Recent pioneering studies (eg., Soldini et al., 2013 and Stephens et al., 2011) have explored the role of simple nearshore features (single Gaussian bars) on swash processes. Many locations in the world, however, are characterized by more complex morphologies such as multiple barred systems. Further, in many such places, including Columbia River Littoral Cell (USA), Duck, NC (USA), Hasaki (Japan), and the Netherlands, a net offshore bar migration (NOM) cycle has been observed whereby bars migrate seaward across the surf zone and decay offshore on interannual cycles. Depending on the stage of the cycle, the number and configuration of the bars may differ widely. For example in the Columbia River Littoral Cell there are typically 2 to 4 nearshore bars. In 1999, the outermost bar crest was located in a water depth of 6.5 m (relative to MLLW) while in 2009 it was located only in 3 m of water. Such large differences in nearshore morphology clearly influence wave breaking patterns and have the potential for influencing the corresponding wave runup as well. Here we apply a numerical, short-wave averaged yet long-wave resolving, non-linear hydrodynamic model (XBeach) to investigate the role that real world (non-synthetic), complex morphologies exert on TWLs. Model simulations under moderate to extreme wave forcing conditions are being used to develop relationships between offshore wave conditions, bar configuration, and runup extent. Additionally, we are exploring how, under the same wave conditions, a particular location may be more vulnerable to flooding simply based on the stage of the NOM cycle. Comparisons with the Stockdon et al. (2006) runup equation will be made to assess traditional empirical approaches relative to model predictions.

  7. Acoustic-microwave water level sensor comparisons in an estuarine environment

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John D. Boon; John M. Brubaker

    2008-01-01

    Microwave water level sensors offer certain advantages over the acoustic sensor, the present standard for water level measurements obtained in U.S. coastal areas by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). These include high reflectivity of microwave radiation from the target medium (water), low sensitivity to variations in air temperature and humidity, and open-beam transmission eliminating any contact between the

  8. Primary Research Paper Untangling the confounding effects of urbanization and high water level on

    E-print Network

    McMaster University

    Primary Research Paper Untangling the confounding effects of urbanization and high water level form 1 December 2004; accepted 15 December 2004 Key words: multiple stressors, water level on a digital elevation model (DEM) was used to untangle the confounding effects of long-term water

  9. Sources of Elevated Sodium Levels in Drinking Water...and Recommendations for Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calabrese, Edward J.; Tuthill, Robert W.

    1978-01-01

    Sodium enters drinking water by a variety of human activities and by natural means. Evidence suggests elevated levels of sodium in drinking water may adversely affect health. Action should be taken to reduce the level of human exposure to sodium in drinking water. (RE)

  10. Arsenic levels in drinking water and the prevalence of skin lesions in West Bengal, India

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Debendra N Guha; Reina Haque; Allan H Smith

    1998-01-01

    Background A cross-sectional survey was conducted between April 1995 and March 1996 to investigate arsenic-associated skin lesions of keratosis and hyperpigmentation in West Bengal, India, and to determine their relationship to arsenic water levels. Methods In all, 7683 participants were examined and interviewed, and the arsenic levels in their drinking water measured. Results Although water concentrations ranged up to 3400

  11. Effect of water level drawdown on decomposition in boreal peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Penttilä, Timo; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    Plant litter production and decomposition are key processes in element cycling in most ecosystems. In peatlands, there has been a long-term imbalance between litter production and decay caused by high water levels (WL) and consequent anoxia. This has resulted in peatlands being a significant sink of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, peatlands are experiencing both "natural" (global climate change) and anthropogenic (ditching) changes that threaten their ability to retain this ecosystem identity and function. Many of these alterations can be traced back to WL drawdown, which can cause increased aeration, higher acidity, falling temperatures, and a greater probability of drought. Such changes are also associated with an increasing decomposition rate, and therefore a greater amount of C released back to the atmosphere. Yet studies about how the overall C balance of peatlands will be affected have come up with conflicting conclusions, demonstrating that the C store could increase, decrease, or remain static. A factor that has been largely overlooked is the change in litter type composition following persistent WL drawdown. It is the aim of our study, then, to help to resolve this issue. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent WL drawdown on the decomposition of numerous types of above-ground and below-ground plant litters at three boreal peatland sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. We thus believe that enough permutations have been created to obtain a good assessment of how each factor, site nutrient level, WL regime, and litter type composition, influences decomposition. We used the litter bag method to measure the decomposition rates: placed measured amounts of plant litter, or cellulose strips as a control, into closed mesh bags, and installed the bags in the natural environment for decomposition for each litter type for varying amounts of time. Following litter bag recovery, the litter was cleaned of excess debris and analyzed for changes in mass, enzyme activity, mesofauna presence, and microbial community composition, among other things. The experiment has a run-time of ten years, the results from the first two years are presented in the poster.

  12. Prediction of shock-induced cavitation in water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, A.

    2014-05-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading have wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over preexisting CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation.

  13. Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Anttila, Jani; Spetz, Peter; Kitunen, Veikko; Tapanila, Tarja; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    There is increasing evidence that changes in the species composition and structure of plant communities induced by global change will have much more impact on plant-mediated carbon cycling than any phenotypic responses. These impacts are largely mediated by shifts in litter quality. There are few documentations of these changes so far, due to the relatively long time scale required for their direct observation. Here, we examine the changes in litter inputs induced by persistent water-level drawdown in boreal peatland sites. Peatlands contain a major proportion of the terrestrial carbon pool, and it is thus important to be able to predict their behaviour and role in the global C cycle under different global change factors. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent water level (WL) drawdown on the quantity and chemical quality of above-ground plant litter inputs at three sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included various extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium, magnesium, manganese and calcium. Four different groups of litter were clearly distinct based on their chemical quality: foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litter. Following short-term WL drawdown, changes in the quality and quantity of litter inputs were small. Following long-term WL drawdown, total litter inputs dramatically increased, due to increased tree litter inputs, and the litter type composition greatly changed. These changes resulted in annual inputs of 1901-2010 kg•ha-1 C, 22-24 kg•ha-1 N, 1.5-2.2 kg•ha-1 P, 967-1235 kg•ha-1 lignin and lignin-like compounds and 254-300 kg•ha-1 water solubles after long-term WL drawdown, compared to respective values of 394-658, 5.6-9.3, 0.22-24.4, 161-293 and 44-81 for the pristine conditions. The direct effects of WL drawdown on litter quality were overruled by the indirect effects via changes in vegetation composition. The short-term (reflecting transient conditions) and long-term (reflecting longer-lasting situation of already adapted ecosystem) effects were very different. Our results imply that the long-term effects will strongly affect the soil properties and C cycle of peatlands.

  14. A Probabilistic Model for Propagating Ungauged Basin Runoff Prediction Variability and Uncertainty Into Estuarine Water Quality Dynamics and Water Quality-Based Management Decisions

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. Anderson; A. Gronewold; I. Alameddine; K. Reckhow

    2008-01-01

    The latest official assessment of United States (US) surface water quality indicates that pathogens are a leading cause of coastal shoreline water quality standard violations. Rainfall-runoff and hydrodynamic water quality models are commonly used to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations in these waters and to subsequently identify climate change, land use, and pollutant mitigation scenarios which might improve water

  15. Exploratory multivariate modeling and prediction of the physico-chemical properties of surface water and groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayoko, Godwin A.; Singh, Kirpal; Balerea, Steven; Kokot, Serge

    2007-03-01

    SummaryPhysico-chemical properties of surface water and groundwater samples from some developing countries have been subjected to multivariate analyses by the non-parametric multi-criteria decision-making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Complete ranking information necessary to select one source of water in preference to all others was obtained, and this enabled relationships between the physico-chemical properties and water quality to be assessed. Thus, the ranking of the quality of the water bodies was found to be strongly dependent on the total dissolved solid, phosphate, sulfate, ammonia-nitrogen, calcium, iron, chloride, magnesium, zinc, nitrate and fluoride contents of the waters. However, potassium, manganese and zinc composition showed the least influence in differentiating the water bodies. To model and predict the water quality influencing parameters, partial least squares analyses were carried out on a matrix made up of the results of water quality assessment studies carried out in Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Egypt, Thailand and India/Pakistan. The results showed that the total dissolved solid, calcium, sulfate, sodium and chloride contents can be used to predict a wide range of physico-chemical characteristics of water. The potential implications of these observations on the financial and opportunity costs associated with elaborate water quality monitoring are discussed.

  16. Fungicide field concentrations exceed FOCUS surface water predictions: urgent need of model improvement.

    PubMed

    Knäbel, Anja; Meyer, Karsten; Rapp, Jörg; Schulz, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    FOCUS models are used in European regulatory risk assessment to predict the frequency and magnitude of individual pesticide surface water concentrations. A recent study showed that these models are not protective in the prediction of insecticide concentrations in surface waters and sediments. Since fungicides differ with regard to their physicochemical properties, application patterns, and entry routes, we compared a larger data set of 417 measured field concentrations (MFC) of agricultural fungicides in surface waters and sediments from 56 studies to the respective predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) calculated with FOCUS step 1-4. Although the fraction of the underestimation of fungicide MFC values was generally lower than that obtained for insecticides, 12% of step 3 and 23% of step 4 PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs. Taking only the 90th percentile concentration of every substance and only E.U. studies into account (E.U. studies: n = 327; 90th percentile + E.U. studies: n = 136), a maximum of 25% of the step 3 and 43% of the step 4 PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs, which is an even worse outcome than that obtained for insecticides. Our results demonstrate that FOCUS predictions are neither protective nor appropriate for predicting fungicide concentrations in the field in the context of European pesticide risk assessment. PMID:24299022

  17. Predicting population-level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals.

    PubMed

    MacLeod, Colin D; MacLeod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, Graham J

    2014-07-01

    Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning that there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose that population predator risk effects can be predicted through an extension of individual risk trade-off theory and show for the first time that this is the case in a wild vertebrate system. Specifically, we demonstrate that the timing (in specific months of the year), occurrence (at low food availability), cause (reduction in individual energy reserves), and type (starvation mortality) of a population-level predator risk effect can be successfully predicted from individual responses using a widely applicable theoretical framework (individual-based risk trade-off theory). Our results suggest that individual-based risk trade-off frameworks could allow a wide range of population-level predator risk effects to be predicted from existing ecological theory, which would enable risk effects to be more routinely integrated into consideration of population processes and in applied situations such as conservation. PMID:25163131

  18. Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean-atmosphere dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, Elaine R.; Spillman, Claire M.; Church, John A.; McIntosh, Peter C.

    2014-10-01

    Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993-2010 and model reanalysis over 1981-2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981-2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.

  19. Controlling nitrite level in drinking water by chlorination and chloramination

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Hongwei Yang; Hefa Cheng

    2007-01-01

    Nitrite in drinking water is a significant health concern. Oxidation of nitrite to nitrate in drinking water chlorination and chloramination was studied by jar tests. Results indicate that chlorination could cause oxidation of nitrite but not ammonia under the typical drinking water treatment conditions (i.e., >0.3mgCl2\\/L residual chlorine and near neutral pH). In chloramination, nitrite oxidation increased with the decreases

  20. Coping and appraisal of daily stressors predict heart rate and blood pressure levels in young women.

    PubMed

    Fontana, A; McLaughlin, M

    1998-01-01

    An anger-provocation paradigm was used to assess the effects of coping processes and appraisal of daily stressors on stress reactivity in 33 normotensive undergraduate women. Participants performed a mental arithmetic and an interpersonal conflict task during the pre- and postmenstrual phases of their menstrual cycles. Increased use of the emotion-focused coping processes of tension reduction and positive reappraisal was correlated with lower levels of baseline heart rate, whereas distancing was associated with higher levels of systolic blood pressure reactivity during the conflict task. Perceiving daily stressors as more stressful was associated with higher baseline diastolic blood pressure levels. The authors concluded that the transactional model of stress is useful for generating hypotheses about factors that predict heart rate and blood pressure levels in women. PMID:9575387

  1. Association between serum C- reactive protein levels and other important predictive markers of outcome in COPD.

    PubMed

    Shameem, Mohammad; Bhargava, Rakesh; Ahmad, Zuber; Saad, Talha; Fatima, Nazish; Malik, Abida

    2011-01-01

    C-reactive protein (CRP) is an acute-phase protein synthesized predominantly by the hepatocytes in response to tissue damage or inflammation. Levels of acute-phase proteins rise rapidly, during infection and after injury. We take up the study to correlate serum CRP levels with other important predictive markers of outcome in COPD. Patient with stable COPD (no exacerbation in the last two months) were taken up for the study. Parameters taken to correlate were age, grade of dyspnea, FEV1. It was found the CRP is negatively correlated with FEV1 and grade of dyspnea but not correlated with age. PMID:21425065

  2. Plasma prorenin levels may predict persistent microalbuminuria in children with diabetes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Francesco Chiarelli; Mariapina Pomilio; Francesco A. De Luca; Jacopo Vecchiet; Alberto Verrotti

    2001-01-01

    Diabetic microangiopathy is characterized by increased prorenin concentrations. In the present study, we evaluated plasma\\u000a prorenin concentrations in a large group of adolescents with onset of diabetes during childhood to determine whether increasing\\u000a prorenin levels may predict the development of persistent microalbuminuria. Ninety-seven young diabetic patients were studied;\\u000a they were divided according to the presence of persistent microalbuminuria, at the

  3. On the predictive value of entry-level skills for successful studying in medical school

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. Lindblom-ylänne; K. Lonka; E. Leskinen

    1999-01-01

    How to select medical students who will be successful during different study phases as well as later in their profession is a difficult problem. This study focuses on the predictive value of students' entry-level skills measured by three multiple-choice science tests, the secondary school matriculation examination, and 'Learning-from-text' (LFT) tasks which were designed to measure critical thinking skills.

  4. Sea level rise and tigers: predicted impacts to Bangladesh’s Sundarbans mangroves

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Colby Loucks; Shannon Barber-Meyer; Adam Barlow; Ruhul Mohaiman Chowdhury

    2010-01-01

    The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, shared by India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation.\\u000a Sea level rise, due to climate change, threatens the long term persistence of the Sundarbans forests and its biodiversity.\\u000a Among the forests’ biota is the only tiger (Panthera tigris) population in the world adapted for life in mangrove forests. Prior predictions on

  5. Borehole sounding device with sealed depth and water level sensors

    DOEpatents

    Skalski, Joseph C.; Henke, Michael D.

    2005-08-02

    A borehole device having proximal and distal ends comprises an enclosure at the proximal end for accepting an aircraft cable containing a plurality of insulated conductors from a remote position. A water sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the enclosure and contains means for detecting water, and sending a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating water has been detected. A bottom sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the water sensing enclosure for determining when the borehole device encounters borehole bottom and sends a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating that borehole bottom has been encountered.

  6. Differential responses of the floating-leaved aquatic plant Nymphoides peltata to gradual versus rapid increases in water levels

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lingfei Yu; Dan Yu

    2011-01-01

    We compared the growth responses of the floating-leaved species Nymphoides peltata to gradual and rapid rising water levels under two nutrient concentrations (1g and 12g of slow released fertilizer (N–P–K: 16–8–12) per container filled with 8kg washed sand), and predicted the population expansion after these floods. The results showed that the capacity for petiole elongation was dependent on leaf age,

  7. Water-level changes and directions of ground-water flow in the shallow aquifer, Fallon area, Churchill County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seiler, R.L.; Allander, K.K.

    1993-01-01

    The Truckee-Carson-Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990 directed the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to acquire water rights for wetland areas in the Carson Desert, Nevada. The public is concerned that htis acquisition of water rights and delivery of the water directly to wildlife areas would result in less recharge to the shallow ground water in the Fallon area and cause domestic wells to go dry. In January 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, began a study of the shallow ground-water system in the Fallon area in Churchill County, Nevada. A network of 126 wells in the study area was monitored. Between January and November 1992, water levels in most wells declined, usually less than 2 feet. The maximum measured decline over this period was 2.68 feet in a well near Stillwater Marsh. Between April and July, however, water levels rose in irrigated areas, typically 1 to 2 feet. Newlands Project water deliveries to the study area began soon after the turn of the century. Since then, water levels have risen more than 15 feet across much of the study area. Water lost from unlined irrigtiaon canals caused the stage in Big Soda Lake to rise nearly 60 feet; ground-water levels near the lake have risen 30 to 40 feet. The depth to water in most irrigated areas is now less than 10 feet. The altitude of the water table ranges from 4.025 feet above sea level 11 miles west of Fallon to 3,865 feet in the Stillwater Marsh area. Ground water flows eastward and divides; some flow goes to the northeast toward the Carson Sink and Stillwater areas, and some goes southeastward to Carson Lake.

  8. Plasma adiponectin levels for prediction of cardiovascular risk among hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    El-Shafey, Eid M; Shalan, Mohamed

    2014-04-01

    Adiponectin (ADPN) is an endogenous insulin sensitizing and anti-inflammatory hormone, released by the adipose tissue. We investigated the clinical and biochemical correlates of plasma ADPN levels and the predictive value of ADPN with respect to survival rates and cardiovascular (CV) events was tested prospectively in a cohort of hemodialysis (HD) patients. We measured baseline ADPN in 110 HD patients, in addition to, 34 healthy subjects to serve as reference group. ADPN levels, were related to different clinical and biochemical cardiovascular risk factors such as increased body mass index (BMI), serum triglycerides (TG), duration of HD, smoking, mean arterial blood pressure (MBP), heart rate (HR), high density (HDL) cholesterol, low density (LDL) cholesterol, serum glucose, hemoglobulin and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in HD patients. Plasma ADPN levels were higher (P?=?0.000) among HD patients (15.06?±?3.54??g/mL) than among reference subjects (6.52?±?1.07??g/mL), were independent of age, and higher among women (16.13?±?3.09??g/mL) than among men (13.94?±?3.65??g/mL). Plasma ADPN levels were inversely related to BMI, TG, CRP and glucose levels. Furthermore, plasma ADPN levels were directly related to HDL-cholesterol and Kt/V. Plasma ADPN levels were lower (P?=?0.000) among patients who experienced new CV events (11.13?±?2.15??g/mL) than among event-free patients (16.82?±?2.45??g/mL), and seem to predict cardiovascular outcomes. The inverse relationships between ADPN and several cardiovascular risk factors indicate that ADPN may have a protective role in the prevention of CV events. PMID:24720410

  9. COPPER LEVELS IN DRINKING WATER FROM PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WELLS IN MAJOR PROVINCES OF GEORGIA

    Microsoft Academic Search

    L. Sonon; D. Kissel; P. Vendrell; R. Hitchcock

    Copper is an essential element in human diet. However, too much copper in drinking water can cause flavor changes and health hazards. Thus, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has set drinking water standards to regulate copper levels in the drinking water supply. Water test results obtained by the Agricultural and Environmental Services Laboratories (AESL) indicated that about 5.6% of

  10. Contamination levels of human pharmaceutical compounds in French surface and drinking water

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Contamination levels of human pharmaceutical compounds in French surface and drinking water S therapeutic classes was analysed from resource and drinking water in two catchment basins located in north-west France. 98 samples were analysed from 63 stations (surface water and drinking water produced from surface

  11. Prediction of water quality index in constructed wetlands using support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Mohammadpour, Reza; Shaharuddin, Syafiq; Chang, Chun Kiat; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Ghani, Aminuddin Ab; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2014-11-19

    Poor water quality is a serious problem in the world which threatens human health, ecosystems, and plant/animal life. Prediction of surface water quality is a main concern in water resource and environmental systems. In this research, the support vector machine and two methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and radial basis function (RBF), were used to predict the water quality index (WQI) in a free constructed wetland. Seventeen points of the wetland were monitored twice a month over a period of 14 months, and an extensive dataset was collected for 11 water quality variables. A detailed comparison of the overall performance showed that prediction of the support vector machine (SVM) model with coefficient of correlation (R (2))?=?0.9984 and mean absolute error (MAE)?=?0.0052 was either better or comparable with neural networks. This research highlights that the SVM and FFBP can be successfully employed for the prediction of water quality in a free surface constructed wetland environment. These methods simplify the calculation of the WQI and reduce substantial efforts and time by optimizing the computations. PMID:25408070

  12. Prospects for useful sea-level predictions from Earth-system models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipscomb, W. H.

    2010-12-01

    Earth-system models (ESMs) to date have been unable to provide useful predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, largely because of uncertainties in the dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As a result, planners and policymakers have had to rely on semi-empirical methods and extrapolations of current trends. In order to obtain comprehensive, physically-based sea-level predictions from ESMs, two major innovations are required: (1) Ice sheet models must represent the physical processes responsible for fast ice flow, and (2) these models must be integrated with models of the ocean, land, and atmosphere. There has been much recent progress in developing ice sheet models that include (among other improvements) higher-order stresses, adaptive and unstructured grids, and more realistic treatments of basal sliding and iceberg calving. Progress has been slower, however, in coupling ice sheet models to ESMs. In particular, work is needed to simulate small-scale ice-ocean interactions that could trigger the abrupt retreat of marine ice sheets. The barriers to coupling are cultural and technical as well as scientific. As new ice sheet models are added to ESMs, scientific understanding will grow quickly, but large uncertainties in sea-level predictions will likely remain. New assessment mechanisms are needed to communicate complex results to end users in a useful, timely fashion.

  13. The Summarization of Pyro-shock Testing Data and SRS Level Prediction Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Qinzhong; Ando, Shigemasa; Seko, Hiromi; Nagahama, Kenta; Saegusa, Hiroshi

    2004-08-01

    Mechanical separation through pyrotechnic shock is widely employed in space vehicle separation. These kinds of pyrotechnic shock devices produce transient loads with high levels of acceleration at different location of satellite. The prediction of acceleration level is significant for the definition of payload shock environment in the earlier design phase and selection of proper accelerometers in the test. This paper summarizes the shock response spectrum (SRS) from the pyrotechnical testing data of several typical satellites from the view points of distance from the source, complex equipment mount structure, etc. The empirical curve for the prediction possibility of pyrotechnic shock level is discussed. At first, the SRS distribution maps at the measure points were compared to understand the shock response environment which may differ from the distance attenuation from the shock source, effects of material and size of structural components, effects of joints and inserts of structural components, etc. Then, the paper discusses the prediction methodologies related to the empirical and extrapolation model presented by NASA-HDBK-7005 is compared to the testing data distribution of several satellites.

  14. Prediction of water vapor transport rates across polyvinylchloride packaging systems using a novel radiotracer method

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, R.W.; Mulski, M.J.; Kuu, W.Y. (Baxter Healthcare Corporation, Round Lake, IL (USA))

    1990-09-01

    A radiotracer method is used to study the transport properties of water vapor in polyvinylchloride (PVC), a plastic commonly used in the packaging of parenteral solutions. Water vapor transport across a PVC film appears to be Fickian in nature. Using the steady-state solution of Fick's second law and the permeability coefficient of water vapor across the PVC film obtained using the described method, the predicted water vapor transport rate (WVTR) for a parenteral solution packaged in PVC is in reasonable agreement with actual WVTR as determined by weight loss under precisely controlled conditions.

  15. Prediction of contaminant fate and transport in potable water systems using H2OFate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devarakonda, Venkat; Manickavasagam, Sivakumar; VanBlaricum, Vicki; Ginsberg, Mark

    2009-05-01

    BlazeTech has recently developed a software called H2OFate to predict the fate and transport of chemical and biological contaminants in water distribution systems. This software includes models for the reactions of these contaminants with residual disinfectant in bulk water and at the pipe wall, and their adhesion/reactions with the pipe walls. This software can be interfaced with sensors through SCADA systems to monitor water distribution networks for contamination events and activate countermeasures, as needed. This paper presents results from parametric calculations carried out using H2OFate for a simulated contaminant release into a sample water distribution network.

  16. U.S. Geological Survey Water science strategy--observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the nation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evenson, Eric J.; Orndorff, Randall C.; Blome, Charles D.; Böhlke, John Karl; Hershberger, Paul K.; Langenheim, Victoria E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morlock, Scott E.; Reeves, Howard W.; Verdin, James P.; Weyers, Holly S.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2013-01-01

    This report expands the Water Science Strategy that began with the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). This report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Science Strategy is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences. The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 134-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report.

  17. Predicting impacts of increased CO? and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L

    2012-07-15

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin. PMID:22641243

  18. Analysis of water levels in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bright, D.J.; Watkins, S.A.; Lisle, B.A.

    2001-01-01

    Analysis of water levels in 21 wells in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site, provides information on the accuracy of hydraulic-head calculations, temporal water-level trends, and potential causes of water-level fluctuations. Accurate hydraulic heads are particularly important in Frenchman Flat where the hydraulic gradients are relatively flat (less than 1 foot per mile) in the alluvial aquifer. Temporal water-level trends with magnitudes near or exceeding the regional hydraulic gradient may have a substantial effect on ground-water flow directions. Water-level measurements can be adjusted for the effects of barometric pressure, formation water density (from water-temperature measurements), borehole deviation, and land-surface altitude in selected wells in the Frenchman Flat area. Water levels in one well were adjusted for the effect of density; this adjustment was significantly greater (about 17 feet) than the adjustment of water levels for barometric pressure, borehole deviation, or land-surface altitude (less than about 4 feet). Water-level measurements from five wells exhibited trends that were statistically and hydrologically significant. Statistically significant water-level trends were observed for three wells completed in the alluvial aquifer (WW-5a, UE-5n, and PW-3), for one well completed in the carbonate aquifer (SM-23), and for one well completed in the quartzite confining unit (Army-6a). Potential causes of water-level fluctuations in wells in the Frenchman Flat area include changes in atmospheric conditions (precipitation and barometric pressure), Earth tides, seismic activity, past underground nuclear testing, and nearby pumping. Periodic water-level measurements in some wells completed in the carbonate aquifer indicate cyclic-type water-level fluctuations that generally correlate with longer term changes (more than 5 years) in precipitation. Ground-water pumping fromthe alluvial aquifer at well WW-5c and pumping and discharge from well RNM-2s appear to cause water-level fluctuations in nearby observation wells. The remaining known sources of water-level fluctuations do not appear to substantially affect water-level changes (seismic activity and underground nuclear testing) or do not affect changes over a period of more than 1 year (barometric pressure and Earth tides) in wells in the Frenchman Flat area.

  19. Model-Free Based Water Level Control for Hydroelectric Power Plants

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Model-Free Based Water Level Control for Hydroelectric Power Plants Cédric JOIN Gérard ROBERT polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France (e-mail: Michel.Fliess@polytechnique.edu) Abstract: Automatic water level for hydroelectric run-of-the river power plants. To modulate power generation, a level trajectory is planned

  20. 26. JUNCTION STRUCTURE. WATER LEVEL 1190FT, INNER RING MIXER OF ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    26. JUNCTION STRUCTURE. WATER LEVEL 1190FT, INNER RING MIXER OF STATE AND COLORADO, WATER EXITS THROUGH OUTER RING. - F. E. Weymouth Filtration Plant, 700 North Moreno Avenue, La Verne, Los Angeles County, CA

  1. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2001, Volume 2: Continuous ground-water level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Cressler, Alan M.; Leeth, David C.

    2001-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2001 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2001, including: discharge records of 133 gaging stations; stage for 144 gaging stations; precipitation for 58 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 17 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 76 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 27 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2001, including continuous water-level records of 159 ground-water wells and periodic records at 138 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia. Note: Historically, this report was published as a paper report. For the 1999 and subsequent water-year reports, the Water Resources Data for Georgia changed to a new, more informative and functional format on CD-ROM. The format is based on a geographic information system (GIS) user interface that allows the user to view map locations of the hydrologic monitoring stations and networks within respective river basins. To obtain a copy of the CD version of this report, you may call the U.S. Geological Survey office in Atlanta at (770) 903-9100, or send e-mail to request the publication. Please include your name and mailing address in your e-mail.

  2. Predicting subgrid variability of soil water content from basic soil information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, W.; Bogena, H. R.; Huisman, J. A.; Vanderborght, J.; Schuh, M.; Priesack, E.; Vereecken, H.

    2015-02-01

    Knowledge of unresolved soil water content variability within model grid cells (i.e., subgrid variability) is important for accurate predictions of land-surface energy and hydrologic fluxes. Here we derived a closed-form expression to describe how soil water content variability depends on mean soil water content (??()) using stochastic analysis of 1-D unsaturated gravitational flow based on the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) model. A sensitivity analysis showed that the n parameter strongly influenced both the shape and magnitude of the maximum of ??(). The closed-form expression was used to predict ??() for eight data sets with varying soil texture using VGM parameters obtained from pedotransfer functions that rely on available soil information. Generally, there was good agreement between observed and predicted ??() despite the obvious simplifications that were used to derive the closed-form expression. Furthermore, the novel closed-form expression was successfully used to inversely estimate the variability of hydraulic properties from observed ??() data.

  3. A comparison of simulation models for predicting soil water dynamics in bare and vegetated lysimeters

    SciTech Connect

    Link, S.O.; Kickert, R.N.; Fayer, M.J.; Gee, G.W.

    1993-06-01

    This report describes the results of simulation models used to predict soil water storage dynamics at the Field Lysimeter Test Facility (FLTF) weighing lysimeters. The objectives of this research is to develop the capability to predict soil water storage dynamics with plants in support of water infiltration control studies for the Hanford Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program. It is important to gain confidence in one`s ability to simulate soil water dynamics over long time periods to assess the barrier`s ability to prevent drainage. Two models were compared for their ability to simulate soil water storage dynamics with and without plants in weighing lysimeters, the soil water infiltration and movement (SWIM) and the simulation of production and utilization of rangelands (SPUR-91) models. These models adequately simulated soil water storage dynamics for the weighing lysimeters. The range of root mean square error values for the two models was 7.0 to 19.8. This compares well with the range reported by Fayer et al. (1992) for the bare soil data sets of 8.1 to 22.1. Future research will test the predictive capability of these models for longer term lysimeter data sets and for historical data sets collected in various plant community types.

  4. Analysis on the characteristics of parameters in groundwater table fluctuation model for predicting groundwater levels in Hancheon watershed, South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Nam Won; Kim, Youn Jung; Chung, Il-Moon; Lee, Jeongwoo

    2014-05-01

    A novel application of groundwater table fluctuation method is suggested to predict groundwater level by means of groundwater table variation due to recharge and discharge under unsteady condition. This model analyzes transient groundwater characteristics by using reaction factor related with groundwater flow and specific yield related with recharge. The groundwater level varies according to the characteristics and composite materials of aquifer. In this study, specific yield and reaction factor which are the major two hydrogeological parameters in the WTF(Water Table Fluctuation) method were estimated and analyzed their spatial characteristics. 8 groundwater level stations which have enough measuring period and high correlation with rainfall in the Hancheon watershed were used. The results showed that specific yield was randomly distributed and reaction factor showed inverse trend with altitude. If the enough data were collected, reaction factor according to altitude in ungauged points could be estimated by using these parameter characteristics. keywords: Key words : Groundwater level, parameters, reaction factor, specific yield Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Regional Innovative Technology Project 2B from KICTTEP.

  5. Modelling of hydrogen production from pore water radiolysis in cemented intermediate level waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foct, F.; Di Giandomenico, M.-V.; Bouniol, P.

    2013-07-01

    In France, some of the intermediate and low level wastes are embedded in hydraulic binder and put into concrete canisters. They contain ? and ? emitters which cause an irradiation of water present in the pores of the hydraulic binder. This is responsible for a dihydrogen (H2) production due to radiolysis. EDF R&D and CEA have collaborated since many years in order to understand this phenomenon and develop a model called DO-RE-MI which can predict such a production of dihydrogen in concrete waste packages. A parametric study, using the developed model, was implemented in order to determine the effects of each parameter on H2 production. The main results are presented in this paper.

  6. Rock motion simulation and prediction of porosity distribution for a two-void-level retort

    SciTech Connect

    Preece, D.S.

    1990-01-01

    The computer program DMC (Distinct Motion Code) was developed in 1988 and 1989 to predict the motion of rock following a conventional blast. The ability to predict the rock motion associated with oil shale retort blasting, along with the induced porosity distribution, has been a driving force behind the development of DMC. Earlier this year DMC was used to simulate the rock motion associated with the rubblization of Occidental Oil Shale's Retort Number 8 which was a three-void-level retort processed in 1982. This paper discusses the algorithm developed to compute the porosity distribution of the muck after rock motion. It also contains a simulation of a two-void-level retort rubblization plan proposed by Ricketts, 1989. DMC is used to model the rock motion associated with the blasting and to obtain a final porosity distribution. Some improvement in the porosity distribution is seen over that observed in the three-void-level simulation. Thus, it may be that the two-void-level approach is not only more efficient to mine, but may also produce a more uniform rubble bed. 8 refs., 12 figs.

  7. A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

  8. Effect of time step size and turbulence model on the open water hydrodynamic performance prediction of contra-rotating propellers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhan-zhi; Xiong, Ying

    2013-04-01

    A growing interest has been devoted to the contra-rotating propellers (CRPs) due to their high propulsive efficiency, torque balance, low fuel consumption, low cavitations, low noise performance and low hull vibration. Compared with the single-screw system, it is more difficult for the open water performance prediction because forward and aft propellers interact with each other and generate a more complicated flow field around the CRPs system. The current work focuses on the open water performance prediction of contra-rotating propellers by RANS and sliding mesh method considering the effect of computational time step size and turbulence model. The validation study has been performed on two sets of contra-rotating propellers developed by David W Taylor Naval Ship R & D center. Compared with the experimental data, it shows that RANS with sliding mesh method and SST k-? turbulence model has a good precision in the open water performance prediction of contra-rotating propellers, and small time step size can improve the level of accuracy for CRPs with the same blade number of forward and aft propellers, while a relatively large time step size is a better choice for CRPs with different blade numbers.

  9. On-line test of power distribution prediction system for boiling water reactors

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Y. Nishizawa; T. Kiguchi; S. Kobayashi; K. Takumi; H. Tanaka; R. Tsutsumi; M. Yokomi

    1982-01-01

    A power distribution prediction system for boiling water reactors has been developed and its on-line performance test has proceeded at an operating commercial reactor. This system predicts the power distribution or thermal margin in advance of control rod operations and core flow rate change. This system consists of an on-line computer system, an operator's console with a color cathode-ray tube,

  10. Analysis, including estimation of water influx, and prediction of performance of volatile-oil reservoirs

    E-print Network

    Ridings, Robert Lewis

    1958-01-01

    August, 1958 hfajor Subject: Petroleum Engineering ANALYSIS, INCI UDING ESTIMATION OF WATER INFLUX, AND PREDICTION OF PERFORMANCE OF VOLATILE-OIL RESERVOIRS A Thesis By ROBERT LEWIS RIDINGS Approved as to style and content by: hairman... of computational methods for the prediction of future performance of petroleum reservoirs is desirable in pro- viding a basis for economic and managerial decisions and efforts in this direction have produced the now extensive literature of petroleum reservoir...

  11. A simple model for predicting the pH values of acidic natural waters

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Shuping Bi

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a simple computer model for predicting the pH values of acidic natural waters. Effects of various factors (such as, aluminum concentration, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), solubility product KSP of A1(OH)3 mineral phase and temperature) on the theoretical prediction of the pH values were discussed. Some valuable conclusions were obtained. This model has been applied to practical analysis

  12. Comparative study of PID controlled modes on automatic water level measurement system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    I. S Isa; B. C. C. Meng; Z. Saad; N. A. Fauzi

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the performances of Proportional (P), proportional-integral (PI) and proportional- integral-derivative (PID) modes controller to control an automatic water level control system. This project is developed to verify the performance of water level control system using PID control modes. The measurements of water level control system were collected from process plant which is located at Process Laboratory, UiTM

  13. Forming conditions and probable values of maximum water levels of the Lena River near Yakutsk

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. V. Rozhdestvenskii; V. A. Buzin; T. L. Shalashina

    2010-01-01

    The genesis of the formation of maximum water levels of the Lena River near Yakutsk is considered. Recovery techniques of\\u000a series of hydrological characteristics is briefly stated. Observational data on maximum water levels are reduced to the long-term\\u000a period, an estimation of their homogeneity and stationarity is carried out. The recomputation of maximum water levels of 1%\\u000a probability taking account

  14. Influence of summer water-level variability on St. Lawrence River-wetland fish assemblages

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKenna, J.E., Jr.; Barkley, J.L.; Johnson, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    Water-level and associated variability are substantial influences on wetland and shallow aquatic communities. The Akwesasne Wetland Complex is an extensive St. Lawrence River system affected by water regulation. The responses of fish assemblages to short-term summer water-level variation were examined throughout this section of the St. Lawrence River and its tributaries. An influence of water-level variability was detected on abundance of three common species [bluntnose minnow (Pimephales notatus), rock bass (Amboplites rupestris), and white sucker (Catastomus commersonii)] and explained 30-44% of variation. This influence has implications for water regulation and natural resource management, and a larger scope evaluation may reveal more extensive effects.

  15. Comparative prediction schemes using conventional and advanced statistical analysis to predict microbial water quality in runoff from manured fields.

    PubMed

    Kim, Minyoung; McGhee, Jennifer; Lee, Sangbong; Thurston, Jeanette

    2011-01-01

    Accurate estimations of indicator microorganisms' concentrations are necessary to properly monitor water quality and manage contamination from agricultural land runoffs. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) statistical methods were compared for accuracy in the prediction of manure-borne microorganisms' concentrations in runoffs from agricultural plots (0.75 m × 2 m) treated with cattle or swine manure. Field rainfall simulation tests were initiated on days 4, 32, 62, 123, and 354 between June 2002 and May 2003. Each rainfall event produced 35 mm rainfall for 30 min at the intensity of 70 mm hr(-1) at 24-intervals. Concentrations of microbial indicators were correlated with hydrological and environmental water quality parameters including water runoff, erosion, air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, pH, electric conductivity (EC) and turbidity to determine their impacts on microbial fate and transport. ANNs demonstrated a better ability to model the nonlinearity of land application of manure to ensure the safety of agricultural water environments. PMID:21942392

  16. Prediction of physical properties of water under extremely supercritical conditions: A molecular dynamics study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakuma, Hiroshi; Ichiki, Masahiro; Kawamura, Katsuyuki; Fuji-ta, Kiyoshi

    2013-04-01

    The physical properties of water under a wide range of pressure and temperature conditions are important in fundamental physics, chemistry, and geoscience. Molecular simulations are useful for predicting and understanding the physical properties of water at phases extremely different from ambient conditions. In this study, we developed a new five-site flexible induced point charge model to predict the density, static dielectric constant, and transport properties of water in the extremely supercritical phase at high temperatures and pressures of up to 2000 K and 2000 MPa. The model satisfactorily reproduced the density, radial distribution function, static dielectric constant, reorientation time, and self-diffusion coefficients of water above the critical points. We also developed a database of the static dielectric constant, which is useful for discussing the electrical conductivity of aqueous fluids in the earth's crust and mantle.

  17. Prediction of Pressure Drop in Chilled Water Piping System Using Theoretical and CFD Analysis

    E-print Network

    Abstract — In the present study, three dimensional models of chilled water piping system is created using design modeler of Ansys-13. Ansys-13 fluent is used to analyses flow through chilled water pipe for pressure drop prediction. Karman-Prandtl equation is used for defining velocity profile of turbulent flow with the help of user defined function. Result obtained from CFD analysis is compared with results of 3K, 2K, ISHARE and Carrier equivalent length methods. Statistical analysis of performance based relative error has been carried out and based on that optimum analytical method for pressure drop prediction in chilled water piping is suggested. Keyword- chilled water piping, 2K, 3K, Pressure drop, ISHARE, CFD analysis I.

  18. Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-12-01

    This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

  19. The challenge of predicting karst water resources in a changing world (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, A.

    2013-12-01

    Karst regions represent a large part of global continental area providing drinking water to almost a quarter of the world population. Climate simulations predict a strong increase in temperature and a decrease of precipitation in many karst regions in the world (see figure below). Despite of this knowledge, there are only few studies that address the impact of climate or change on karst water resources. This presentation will provide an overview about different approaches for the simulation of karst water resources, comparing their data requirements and process representation, and elaborating reasons for their limited applicability. A set of case studies will be used to show the benefits of new modeling approaches that include hydrochemical observations, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate and improve the prediction of karst water resources. Furthermore, the impact of uncertain temperature and precipitation predictions of climate simulation models on the prediction of karst water resources will be elaborated by another example and alternative approaches will be discussed. The presentation will end with an outlook about the application of karst simulation models on larger scales where no discharge and groundwater measurements will be presented. Location of carbonate rock outcrops in Europe [Williams and Ford, Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 2006, modified] compared to expected mean change of temperature and precipitation in North America (a,b) and Europe (c,d) from 1961-1990 to 2081-2090, derived from 20 general circulation models [IPCC, 2007].

  20. REDUCING ARSENIC LEVELS IN DRINKING WATER DURING IRON REMOVAL PROCESSES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation provides an overview of iron removal technology for the removal of arsenic from drinking water. The presentation is divided into several topic topics: Arsenic Chemistry, Treatment Selection, Treatment Options, Case Studies and Iron Removal Processes. Each topic i...

  1. Modelling irrigation scheduling to analyse water management at farm level, during water shortages

    Microsoft Academic Search

    F. Labbé; P. Ruelle; P. Garin; P. Leroy

    2000-01-01

    The area under irrigated corn has significantly increased in the Charente river basin during the last 10 years. Corn water requirements are maximum in the summer, the period with low water flows and highest environmental vulnerability. Periods of water shortage during which irrigation is temporarily forbidden occur frequently. To reduce water demand, specific water saving policies are required. This paper

  2. Fasting Serum C?Peptide Levels Predict Cardiovascular and Overall Death in Nondiabetic Adults

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Nileshkumar; Taveira, Tracey H.; Choudhary, Gaurav; Whitlatch, Hilary; Wu, Wen?Chih

    2012-01-01

    Background Insulin resistance, characterized by hyperinsulinemia and normal or elevated serum glucose, is an established precursor to diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Despite fasting serum C?peptide levels being an accurate and stable marker of endogenous insulin production used in patients with diabetes, it is unknown whether C?peptide could serve as a marker of insulin resistance and predict outcomes in patients without diabetes. Method and Results This is a retrospective cohort study using data from the NHANES?3 (1988–1994) survey with mortality follow?up through December 31, 2006. Participants included 5153 subjects, 40 to 74 years of age with fasting glucose ?70 mg/dL, without diabetes by history or laboratory testing. Receiver?operating?curve analysis compared fasting C?peptide against known insulin resistance measures such as fasting plasma glucose, serum insulin, HOMA?IR, quantitative?insulin?sensitivity?check?index, and metabolic syndrome for the prediction of cardiovascular and overall death. Subjects were then stratified by quartiles of C?peptide levels. Cox proportional?hazards modeling compared hazards of cardiovascular and overall death amongst C?peptide quartiles and adjusted for potential confounders of cardiovascular and diabetes risk. Fasting serum C?peptide levels predicted cardiovascular and overall death better than other studied measures (AUC=0.62 and 0.60 respectively vs the rest, with AUC?0.58 and ?0.57 respectively, P<0.001). When compared with the lowest C?peptide quartile, subjects in the highest quartile had significantly higher adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of cardiovascular death (HR=1.60, 95%CI 1.07 to 2.39) and overall mortality (HR=1.72, 95%CI 1.34 to 2.21) after controlling for confounders. Conclusions C?peptide levels significantly related to hazards of cardiovascular and overall death in nondiabetic adults and was a better predictor of these outcomes than serum insulin and/or glucose derived measures. PMID:23316320

  3. Prediction of calcium carbonate scaling from water in solar-energy systems

    Microsoft Academic Search

    I. Singh; C. F. Cheng; P. S. Chopra

    1979-01-01

    Water samples collected from subsystems at five Department of Energy-sponsored solar-energy sites were assessed for chemical scaling deposition. Collector surfaces are the most likely area for scale formation, and the deposits are most likely to be calcium carbonate. Various techniques that solar designers and operators can employ to predict scaling on heat-transfer surfaces and to determine whether water treatment is

  4. Techniques for monitoring and predicting water vulnerability with an application in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Senay, G.

    2005-12-01

    A lack of water will be one of the great challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. UN projections for 2050 suggest that between 2 and 7 billion people will face chronic water insecurity. Improved information tools for assessing, monitoring and predicting water insecurity will become increasingly important. This study combines rainfall estimates with surface runoff estimates and population density information to create a Water Vulnerability Index. The WVI is a standardized index that expresses the relative availability of surface water. A WVI of 100 denotes sufficient water to support typical agro-pastoral livelihoods. We apply the WVI in Ethiopia, which has a large, growing, and increasingly food and water insecure population. Recent research performed for the USAID Famine Early Warning System Network has identified large water insecure populations threatened by a recent decrease in rainfall, probably associated with warming in the southwest Indian Ocean. We use a 40-year time-series of WVI values to explore trends, seasonal and intra-seasonal predictability, with particular attention paid to climate forcing in the Indian Ocean. An early warning tool combining satellite rainfall observations and climate-based projections will be described and evaluated.

  5. Ground-water levels in aquifers used for residential supply, Campton Township, Kane County, Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kay, Robert T.; Kraske, Kurt A.

    1996-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Campton Township Board of Trustees, measured water levels in the aquifers used for residential supply in Campton Township, Kane County, Illinois. Aquifers used for residential supply are the shallow and deep aquifers in the glacial drift, composed of unconsolidated sand and gravels; the Alexandrian-Maquoketa aquifer, composed of dolomite and shale of the Alexandrian Series and the Maquoketa Group; the Galena-Platteville aquifer, composed of dolomite of the Platteville and Galena Groups; and the Ancell aquifer, composed of sandstones of the Glenwood Formation and the St. Peter Sanstone. Water-level altitudes in the shallow drift aquifers generally follow surface topography. Analysis of water-level data does not clearly indicate overutilization of these aquifers. Water-level altitudes in the deep drift aquifers decrease from west to east. Comparison of historical depth to water measurements with current (1995) measurements indicates large decreases in water levels in some areas. The deep drift aquifers may be overutilized at these locations. Water-level altitudes in the Alexandrian-Maquoketa aquifer generally decrease from west to east. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer follows the bedrock-surface topography in some locations. Localized low water-level altitudes and large decreases in water levels indicate the Alexandrian-Maquoketa aquifer is overutilized in several areas. Water-level altitudes in the wells finished in the Galena- Platteville aquifer vary by more than 300 feet. Large decreases in water levels in wells finished in the Galena-Platteville aquifer indicate the Galena-Platteville and Alexandrian-Maquoketa aquifers are overutilized in the northern part of the township. Water-level altitudes in the wells finished in the Ancell aquifer are also highly variable. There is no indication that the Ancell aquifer is overutilized.

  6. Aquifer compaction and ground-water levels in south-central Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evans, Daniel W.; Pool, Donald R.

    2000-01-01

    As of 1998, the U.S. Geological Survey is monitoring water-level fluctuationa dn aquifer compaction at 19 wells that are fitted with borehole extensometers in the Eloy Basin, Stanfield Basin, Avra Valley, and Upper Santa Cruz Basin. Decreased ground-water pumping has resulted in water-level recoveries of more than 100 feet at a well near Eloy and almost 200 feet at a well in Avra Valley. Aquifer compaction has continued in both areas despite the large water-level recoveries in Eloy and the stable water levels in Avra Valley. Extensometer sites in the Upper Santa Cruz Basin have recorded as much as 50 feet of water-level decline and 0.2 feet of aquifer compaction during 1980 to 1996. Rates of compaction vary throughout the extensometer network, with the greater rates of compaction being associated with the more compressible sediments of Eloy and Stanfield Basins.

  7. Temporal and Spatial prediction of groundwater levels using Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy logic and Kriging interpolation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapoglou, Evdokia; Karatzas, George P.; Trichakis, Ioannis C.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with kriging interpolation method, in order to simulate the hydraulic head both spatially and temporally. Initially, ANNs are used for the temporal simulation of the hydraulic head change. The results of the most appropriate ANNs, determined through a fuzzy logic system, are used as an input for the kriging algorithm where the spatial simulation is conducted. The proposed algorithm is tested in an area located across Isar River in Bayern, Germany and covers an area of approximately 7800 km2. The available data extend to a time period from 1/11/2008 to 31/10/2012 (1460 days) and include the hydraulic head at 64 wells, temperature and rainfall at 7 weather stations and surface water elevation at 5 monitoring stations. One feedforward ANN was trained for each of the 64 wells, where hydraulic head data are available, using a backpropagation algorithm. The most appropriate input parameters for each wells' ANN are determined considering their proximity to the measuring station, as well as their statistical characteristics. For the rainfall, the data for two consecutive time lags for best correlated weather station, as well as a third and fourth input from the second best correlated weather station, are used as an input. The surface water monitoring stations with the three best correlations for each well are also used in every case. Finally, the temperature for the best correlated weather station is used. Two different architectures are considered and the one with the best results is used henceforward. The output of the ANNs corresponds to the hydraulic head change per time step. These predictions are used in the kriging interpolation algorithm. However, not all 64 simulated values should be used. The appropriate neighborhood for each prediction point is constructed based not only on the distance between known and prediction points, but also on the training and testing error of the ANN. Therefore, the neighborhood of each prediction point is the best available. Then, the appropriate variogram is determined, by fitting the experimental variogram to a theoretical variogram model. Three models are examined, the linear, the exponential and the power-law. Finally, the hydraulic head change is predicted for every grid cell and for every time step used. All the algorithms used were developed in Visual Basic .NET, while the visualization of the results was performed in MATLAB using the .NET COM Interoperability. The results are evaluated using leave one out cross-validation and various performance indicators. The best results were achieved by using ANNs with two hidden layers, consisting of 20 and 15 nodes respectively and by using power-law variogram with the fuzzy logic system.

  8. A regional neural network ensemble for predicting mean daily river water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell; Wagner, Tyler

    2014-09-01

    Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May-October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 °C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.

  9. Computational methodology to predict satellite system-level effects from impacts of untrackable space debris

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welty, N.; Rudolph, M.; Schäfer, F.; Apeldoorn, J.; Janovsky, R.

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents a computational methodology to predict the satellite system-level effects resulting from impacts of untrackable space debris particles. This approach seeks to improve on traditional risk assessment practices by looking beyond the structural penetration of the satellite and predicting the physical damage to internal components and the associated functional impairment caused by untrackable debris impacts. The proposed method combines a debris flux model with the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert ballistic limit equation (BLE), which accounts for the inherent shielding of components positioned behind the spacecraft structure wall. Individual debris particle impact trajectories and component shadowing effects are considered and the failure probabilities of individual satellite components as a function of mission time are calculated. These results are correlated to expected functional impairment using a Boolean logic model of the system functional architecture considering the functional dependencies and redundancies within the system.

  10. Simplified combustion noise theory yielding a prediction of fluctuating pressure level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, R. G.

    1984-01-01

    The first order equations for the conservation of mass and momentum in differential form are combined for an ideal gas to yield a single second order partial differential equation in one dimension and time. Small perturbation analysis is applied. A Fourier transformation is performed that results in a second order, constant coefficient, nonhomogeneous equation. The driving function is taken to be the source of combustion noise. A simplified model describing the energy addition via the combustion process gives the required source information for substitution in the driving function. This enables the particular integral solution of the nonhomogeneous equation to be found. This solution multiplied by the acoustic pressure efficiency predicts the acoustic pressure spectrum measured in turbine engine combustors. The prediction was compared with the overall sound pressure levels measured in a CF6-50 turbofan engine combustor and found to be in excellent agreement.

  11. Hepcidin levels predict nonresponsiveness to oral iron therapy in patients with iron deficiency anemia.

    PubMed

    Bregman, David B; Morris, David; Koch, Todd A; He, Andy; Goodnough, Lawrence T

    2013-02-01

    Levels of hepcidin, a major regulator of iron homeostasis, may identify patients with iron deficiency anemia (IDA) who will not respond to oral iron therapy. In this study, IDA patients underwent a 14-day trial (run-in) course of ferrous sulfate therapy. Nonresponders (Hgb increase <1 g/dL with 67% compliance rate) were randomized to IV ferric carboxymaltose (FCM; two injections of 750 mg) or further oral iron for 14 days. Screening hepcidin levels were 38.4 versus 11.3 ng/mL, P = 0.0002 in nonresponders versus responders to a trial of oral iron. Hepcidin of > 20 ng/mL, showed sensitivity of 41.3%, specificity of 84.4%, and positive predictive value of 81.6% for predicting nonresponsiveness to oral iron. PPVs for ferritin> 30 ng/mL or transferrin saturation (TSAT)>15% were 59.2 and 55%, respectively. Negative predictive values for hepcidin, ferritin, and TSAT were 46.3, 22.7, and 19.7, respectively. FCM versus oral iron showed Hgb increases of ? 1 gm/dL in 65.3% versus 20.8% (P < 0.0001) and Hgb increases of 1.7 ± 1.3 versus 0.6 ± 0.9 g/dL (P = 0.0025), respectively. We conclude that hepcidin predicts nonresponsiveness to oral iron in patients with IDA and is superior to TSAT or ferritin for this purpose. Nonresponse to oral iron therapy does not rule out IDA, since two-thirds of patients subsequently responded to intravenous iron. PMID:23335357

  12. Predicting water quality at Santa Monica Beach: evaluation of five different models for public notification of unsafe swimming conditions.

    PubMed

    Thoe, W; Gold, M; Griesbach, A; Grimmer, M; Taggart, M L; Boehm, A B

    2014-12-15

    Bathing beaches are monitored for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) to protect swimmers from unsafe conditions. However, FIB assays take ?24 h and water quality conditions can change dramatically in that time, so unsafe conditions cannot presently be identified in a timely manner. Statistical, data-driven predictive models use information on environmental conditions (i.e., rainfall, turbidity) to provide nowcasts of FIB concentrations. Their ability to predict real time FIB concentrations can make them more accurate at identifying unsafe conditions than the current method of using day or older FIB measurements. Predictive models are used in the Great Lakes, Hong Kong, and Scotland for beach management, but they are presently not used in California - the location of some of the world's most popular beaches. California beaches are unique as point source pollution has generally been mitigated, the summer bathing season receives little to no rainfall, and in situ measurements of turbidity and salinity are not readily available. These characteristics may make modeling FIB difficult, as many current FIB models rely heavily on rainfall or salinity. The current study investigates the potential for FIB models to predict water quality at a quintessential California Beach: Santa Monica Beach. This study compares the performance of five predictive models, multiple linear regression model, binary logistic regression model, partial least square regression model, artificial neural network, and classification tree, to predict concentrations of summertime fecal coliform and enterococci concentrations. Past measurements of bacterial concentration, storm drain condition, and tide level are found to be critical factors in the predictive models. The models perform better than the current beach management method. The classification tree models perform the best; for example they correctly predict 42% of beach postings due to fecal coliform exceedances during model validation, as compared to 28% by the current method. Artificial neural network is the second best model which minimizes the number of incorrect beach postings. The binary logistic regression model also gives promising results, comparable to classification tree, by adjusting the posting decision thresholds to maximize correct beach postings. This study indicates that predictive models hold promise as a beach management tool at Santa Monica Beach. However, there are opportunities to further refine predictive models. PMID:25262555

  13. Multi-temporal, high spatial resolution water level monitoring of the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, S.; Wdowinski, S.; Kim, S.

    2008-05-01

    Water level information in South Florida's Everglades is very important for understanding the hydrology of this fragile ecosystem. Currently water levels are determined by a dense stage (water level) network providing high spatial resolution observation. However, because there are a finite number of stage stations in Everglades, water levels in areas located between stage stations can only be estimated by interpolation. Space-borne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques were successfully used to detect high spatial resolution (20-50 meter pixel resolution) water level changes in the Everglades and other wetlands. However, the InSAR observations are relative, providing measure of water level changes (not absolute). In this study we presents a new InSAR technique which enables to estimate a time series of absolute water levels using radar observations acquired successively over the Everglades. In this preliminary stage, we limit our study to Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA1), which is a managed area located in the northern section of the Everglades. The main advantage of the new technique is the reconstruction of absolute water level information instead of previous approaches calculating only relative water level changes. The new technique is called Small Temporal Baseline Subset (STBAS), which utilizes highly coherent interferometric phases obtained only with relatively short time difference between two SAR acquisitions (e.g. 24 or 48 recurrence periods in Radarsat-1 SAR system). The observed interferometric observations have to be calibrated with ground truth data as the reference wetland sheet flow vary daily. We use daily stage data measured at 13 stage stations in WCA1 to calibrate the space-based observations. This information is integrated using the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method to generate a time series of absolute water levels. Our calibration-validation study shows a very good fit to the stage data. The correlation coefficient between estimated water levels with STBAS technique and observed stage station data (SITE 7) is 0.99, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the difference is 5.8 cm. We also developed a new tool, STBAS-viewer that allows an interactive display of water level maps, time series, and water level profiles. This new tool can be very useful for both research and management purposes. Keywords: Wetland interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Small temporal baseline subset (STBAS), Absolute water level change, Everglades, Water Construction Area (WCA1).

  14. Health Belief Model and Reasoned Action Theory in Predicting Water Saving Behaviors in Yazd, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Morowatisharifabad, Mohammad Ali; Momayyezi, Mahdieh; Ghaneian, Mohammad Taghi

    2012-01-01

    Background: People's behaviors and intentions about healthy behaviors depend on their beliefs, values, and knowledge about the issue. Various models of health education are used in deter¬mining predictors of different healthy behaviors but their efficacy in cultural behaviors, such as water saving behaviors, are not studied. The study was conducted to explain water saving beha¬viors in Yazd, Iran on the basis of Health Belief Model and Reasoned Action Theory. Methods: The cross-sectional study used random cluster sampling to recruit 200 heads of households to collect the data. The survey questionnaire was tested for its content validity and reliability. Analysis of data included descriptive statistics, simple correlation, hierarchical multiple regression. Results: Simple correlations between water saving behaviors and Reasoned Action Theory and Health Belief Model constructs were statistically significant. Health Belief Model and Reasoned Action Theory constructs explained 20.80% and 8.40% of the variances in water saving beha-viors, respectively. Perceived barriers were the strongest Predictor. Additionally, there was a sta¬tistically positive correlation between water saving behaviors and intention. Conclusion: In designing interventions aimed at water waste prevention, barriers of water saving behaviors should be addressed first, followed by people's attitude towards water saving. Health Belief Model constructs, with the exception of perceived severity and benefits, is more powerful than is Reasoned Action Theory in predicting water saving behavior and may be used as a framework for educational interventions aimed at improving water saving behaviors. PMID:24688927

  15. Predicting red blood cell transfusion in hospitalized patients: role of hemoglobin level, comorbidities, and illness severity

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Randomized controlled trial evidence supports a restrictive strategy of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, but significant variation in clinical transfusion practice persists. Patient characteristics other than hemoglobin levels may influence the decision to transfuse RBCs and explain some of this variation. Our objective was to evaluate the role of patient comorbidities and severity of illness in predicting inpatient red blood cell transfusion events. Methods We developed a predictive model of inpatient RBC transfusion using comprehensive electronic medical record (EMR) data from 21 hospitals over a four year period (2008-2011). Using a retrospective cohort study design, we modeled predictors of transfusion events within 24 hours of hospital admission and throughout the entire hospitalization. Model predictors included administrative data (age, sex, comorbid conditions, admission type, and admission diagnosis), admission hemoglobin, severity of illness, prior inpatient RBC transfusion, admission ward, and hospital. Results The study cohort included 275,874 patients who experienced 444,969 hospitalizations. The 24 hour and overall inpatient RBC transfusion rates were 7.2% and 13.9%, respectively. A predictive model for transfusion within 24 hours of hospital admission had a C-statistic of 0.928 and pseudo-R2 of 0.542; corresponding values for the model examining transfusion through the entire hospitalization were 0.872 and 0.437. Inclusion of the admission hemoglobin resulted in the greatest improvement in model performance relative to patient comorbidities and severity of illness. Conclusions Data from electronic medical records at the time of admission predicts with very high likelihood the incidence of red blood transfusion events in the first 24 hours and throughout hospitalization. Patient comorbidities and severity of illness on admission play a small role in predicting the likelihood of RBC transfusion relative to the admission hemoglobin. PMID:24884605

  16. Measured and predicted effects of gravity level on directional dendritic solidification of NH4Cl-H2O

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccay, T. D.; Mccay, Mary H.

    1993-01-01

    Dendritic growth front rates during vertical directional solidification are predicted for gravity levels of 10 exp 0 g sub e (where e is earth gravity), 10 exp -1 g sub e, 10 exp -2 g sub e, 10 exp -3 g sub e, 10 exp -4 g sub e, and 10 exp -5 g sub e (microgravity) for the physical conditions used for a recent ammonium chloride-water solidification experiment on the International Microgravity Laboratory I (IMLI). The growth front rates at 10 exp 0 g sub e and 10 exp -5 g sub e are validated using ground based laboratory and IMLI experimental data. As the gravity decreases, the growth rates increase until they approach a maximum at approximately 10 exp -4 g sub e. The 10 exp -4 and 10 exp -5 levels are equivalent. Liquid concentration and volume fraction, temperature profiles and fluid flow velocities are also calculated. Kinetic energy calculations for each of the six gravity levels indicate that the threshold for fluid flow to affect the growth front rate is in the range of 10 exp -8 ergs.

  17. An investigation of the origin of large water level oscillations during storms at Banneg Island, France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staples, T.; TIAN, M.; Ardhuin, F.; Sheremet, A.; Suanez, S.; Fichaut, B.

    2012-12-01

    We investigate the generation mechanism for unusually high water levels observed at Banneg Island, France, where loose boulders have been reportedly transported during storms over distances exceeding 100m (Fichaut and Suanez, 2011). The site is characterized by steep cliffs with slopes from 0.3 to 3 and composed of fractured rock and boulders. The lowest points along Banneg Island cliff crest are at 5m above the highest predicted tide, which is 10m above mean sea level. Wave and tide levels were observed using pressure gauges over a period of approximately 7 months. Two gauges (P3 and P4) were deployed offshore near the 4m isobath, and were submerged for the entire duration of the experiment. A third gauge (P2), located on the island just above the maximum predicted tide, and approximately cross-shore with respect to P3, was intermittently submerged during storms, for periods of the order of 2-3 min. On milder slopes (Sheremet et al. 2011), nonlinear shoaling of wind waves is typically associated with the generation of infragavity (IG) waves. We investigate the relationship between the water level oscillations observed at Banneg Island, and wave set-up and infragravity waves generated during swell shoaling. To circumvent the difficulty posed by the intermittent P2 signal, wavelet cross-correlation and cross-bispectral analysis is used to study the phase correlation between the swell envelope and IG waves at P3 and P4. A uni-directional deterministic wave model (Agnon and Sheremet, 1997) is used to investigate the generation mechanism, and assess the magnitude of the infragravity waves. REFERENCES Agnon, Y and A. Sheremet. Stochastic nonlinear shoaling of directional spectra. Journal of Fluid Mechanics. 345, p. 79-99, 1997. Fichaut, B and S. Suanez. Quarrying, transport and deposition of cliff-top storm deposits during extreme events: Banneg island. Marine Geology, pages 36-55, 2011. Sheremet, A, J. Kaihatu, S. Su, E. Smith, and J. Smith. Modeling of nonlinear wave propagation over fringing reefs. Coastal Engineering. 58(12). 1125-1137, 2011.

  18. Serum 2-hydroxyglutarate levels predict isocitrate dehydrogenase mutations and clinical outcome in acute myeloid leukemia

    PubMed Central

    DiNardo, Courtney D.; Propert, Kathleen J.; Loren, Alison W.; Paietta, Elisabeth; Sun, Zhuoxin; Levine, Ross L.; Straley, Kimberly S.; Yen, Katharine; Patel, Jay P.; Agresta, Samuel; Abdel-Wahab, Omar; Perl, Alexander E.; Litzow, Mark R.; Rowe, Jacob M.; Lazarus, Hillard M.; Fernandez, Hugo F.; Margolis, David J.; Tallman, Martin S.; Luger, Selina M.

    2013-01-01

    Cancer-associated isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutations produce the metabolite 2-hydroxyglutarate (2HG), but the clinical utility of 2HG has not been established. We studied whether 2HG measurements in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients correlate with IDH mutations, and whether diagnostic or remission 2HG measurements predict survival. Sera from 223 de novo AML patients were analyzed for 2HG concentration by reverse-phase liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry. Pretreatment 2HG levels ranged from 10 to 30?000 ng/mL and were elevated in IDH-mutants (median, 3004 ng/mL), compared to wild-type IDH (median, 61 ng/mL) (P < .0005). 2HG levels did not differ among IDH1 or IDH2 allelic variants. In receiver operating characteristic analysis, a discriminatory level of 700 ng/mL optimally segregated patients with and without IDH mutations, and on subsequent mutational analysis of the 13 IDH wild-type samples with 2HG levels >700 ng/mL, 9 were identified to have IDH mutations. IDH-mutant patients with 2HG levels >200 at complete remission had shorter overall survival compared to 2HG ?200 ng/mL (hazard ratio, 3.9; P = .02). We establish a firm association between IDH mutations and serum 2HG concentration in AML, and confirm that serum oncometabolite measurements provide useful diagnostic and prognostic information that can improve patient selection for IDH-targeted therapies. PMID:23641016

  19. Predicting CO2-water interfacial tension under pressure and temperature conditions of geologic CO2 storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Laura C.; Bourg, Ian C.; Sposito, Garrison

    2012-03-01

    Storage in subsurface geologic formations, principally saline aquifers, is currently under development as a major approach to counter anthropogenic CO2 emissions. To ensure the stability and long-term viability of geologic carbon storage, injected CO2 must be kept in place by an overlying cap rock of very low permeability. Capillary forces in the cap rock act to prevent upward migration and escape of the stored supercritical fluid, with interfacial tension (IFT) between the aqueous brine phase and the CO2 phase being the primary control. However, published experimental CO2-water IFT data vary widely, mainly because of inadequate experimental protocols or inappropriate use of bulk-fluid properties in computing IFT from experimental observations. Only two published data sets were found to meet all criteria of merit for an accurate measurement of IFT over the entire range of pressure (5-45 MPa) and temperature (298-383 K) pertinent to geologic carbon storage. In such circumstances, molecular simulations can enhance the utility of limited data when used to validate assumptions made in their interpretation, resolve discrepancies among data, and fill gaps where data are lacking. Simulations may also be used to provide insight into the relationship between IFT and fundamental properties, such as the strength of the CO2-H2O interaction. Through molecular dynamics simulations, we compared the quality of three CO2 models and two H2O models (SPC/E and TIP4P2005) in predicting IFT under the pressure and temperature conditions relevant to geologic CO2 sequestration. Interfacial tension at fixed temperature simulated via molecular dynamics decreased strongly with increasing pressure below the critical CO2 pressure of 7 MPa, then leveled off, in agreement with experiment, whereas increasing temperature from 300 to 383 K at fixed pressure had little effect on IFT, which is also consistent with experimental data. Our results demonstrated that the strength of the short-range portion of the CO2-H2O interaction exerts a major influence on IFT. The CO2 model that best represented the attractive part of this interaction for randomly-oriented water molecules also best captures the experimental pressure dependence of IFT when combined with either water model. When combined with the SPC/E water model, this CO2 model underestimated IFT by ˜10 mN/m, which approximately equals the amount by which the SPC/E water model underestimates the surface tension of pure water. When combined with the TIP4P2005 water model, this model accurately captured the pressure dependence of the CO2-H2O IFT at 383 K over the entire pressure range examined. These pressure variations will have the dominant effect on IFT—especially at pressures lower than the CO2 critical pressure (˜7 MPa)—and, therefore, on the CO2 storage capacity and sealing integrity of a subsurface reservoir.

  20. Prediction of forest fires occurrences with area-level Poisson mixed models.

    PubMed

    Boubeta, Miguel; Lombardía, María José; Marey-Pérez, Manuel Francisco; Morales, Domingo

    2015-05-01

    The number of fires in forest areas of Galicia (north-west of Spain) during the summer period is quite high. Local authorities are interested in analyzing the factors that explain this phenomenon. Poisson regression models are good tools for describing and predicting the number of fires per forest areas. This work employs area-level Poisson mixed models for treating real data about fires in forest areas. A parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating the mean squared errors of fires predictors. The developed methodology and software are applied to a real data set of fires in forest areas of Galicia. PMID:25725387

  1. Corrosion models for predictions of performance of high-level radioactive-waste containers

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, J.C.; McCright, R.D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Gdowski, G.E. [KMI Energy Services, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1991-11-01

    The present plan for disposal of high-level radioactive waste in the US is to seal it in containers before emplacement in a geologic repository. A proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, is being evaluated for its suitability as a geologic repository. The containers will probably be made of either an austenitic or a copper-based alloy. Models of alloy degradation are being used to predict the long-term performance of the containers under repository conditions. The models are of uniform oxidation and corrosion, localized corrosion, and stress corrosion cracking, and are applicable to worst-case scenarios of container degradation. This paper reviews several of the models.

  2. Combining ARS Process-Based Water and Wind Erosion Prediction Technologies

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Erosion process research in the United States has long been separated by location, experimental data collection, and prediction technologies. Erosion experiment stations were established in the l930’s throughout the country, however most examined erosion by water while a few in the Plains states we...

  3. Five Years Later: Predicting Student Use of Journals in a New Water Resources Graduate Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wirth, Andrea A.; Mellinger, Margaret

    2011-01-01

    Using citation analysis, the authors examined the journals cited in theses and dissertations over the first five years of the Water Resources Graduate Program at Oregon State University. These journal titles were compared to the titles predicted as being important in the 2003 Oregon State University Libraries new program (Category I) review. A…

  4. A surface complexation framework for predicting water purification through metal biosorption

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Bryne T. Ngwenya; Janette Tourney; Marisa Magennis; Leon Kapetas; Valerie Olive

    2009-01-01

    Biosorption has emerged as an alternative sustainable strategy for cleaning up water contaminated through industrial activities and\\/or natural processes. Since biomaterials contain discrete reactive sites to which adsorption takes place, the biosorption process is amenable to thermodynamic treatment using surface complexation theory, enabling the development of predictive models for complex natural or industrial mixtures. In this paper, we present such

  5. PREDICTION OF OCTANOL/WATER PARTITION COEFFICIENT (KOW) WITH ALGORITHMICALLY DERIVED VARIABLES

    EPA Science Inventory

    A statistical model was developed with algorithmically derived independent variables based on chemical structure for prediction of octanol/water partition coefficients (Kow) measured for more than 4,000 chemicals. he procedure first classified the chemicals into 14 groups based o...

  6. WATER EROSION PREDICTION PROJECT (WEPP) TECHNOLOGY FOR ASSESSMENT OF RUNOFF, SOIL LOSS AND SEDIMENT YIELD POTENTIAL

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, distributed parameter, continuous simulation computer program for estimation of runoff, soil loss and sediment yield from fields and small watersheds. In addition to having large databases for application to a multitude of U.S. s...

  7. Optical Properties of Three Beach Waters: Implications for Predictive Modeling of Enterococci

    EPA Science Inventory

    Sunlight plays an important role in the inactivation of fecal indicator bacteria in recreational waters. Solar radiation can explain temporal trends in bacterial counts and is commonly used as an explanatory variable in predictive models. Broadband surface radiation provides a ba...

  8. Verifying Predictions of Water and Current Distributions in a Serpentine Flow Field Polymer Electrolyte Membrane

    E-print Network

    Van Zee, John W.

    Verifying Predictions of Water and Current Distributions in a Serpentine Flow Field Polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell with a serpentine flow path. The model includes the gas diffusion layer In this study, the previously reported 3D model of Ref. 15 was exercised for a serpentine channel flow

  9. COMPARISON OF MODEL PREDICTIONS AND CONSUMPTIVE WATER USE OF CLOSED CYCLE COOLING SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of a comparison of field-data-derived water evaporation rates with predictive model values for cooling towers and cooling ponds at steam-electric generating plants. The Leung Moore cooling tower model and five cooling pond models (Harbeck and Marciano; Ha...

  10. From climate history to prediction of regional water flows with machine learning

    Microsoft Academic Search

    RATTIKORN HEWETT; JOHN LEUCHNER; M. Carvalho

    2001-01-01

    Investigates a machine learning approach to discovering predictive relationships that can be used to integrate solar and ocean-atmospheric conditions into forecasts of regional water flows. In particular, we apply decision-tree learning and a recently developed inductive technique called \\

  11. Predicted impact of zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) invasion on water clarity in

    E-print Network

    Padilla, Dianna

    1617 Predicted impact of zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) invasion on water clarity in Lake Great Lakes region that are vulnerable to zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) but have yet zebra mussel densities. Models were fit to chlorophyll and temperature data collected biweekly from Lake

  12. Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios on Water Resources

    EPA Science Inventory

    Global changes in climate and land use can alTect the quantity and quality of water resources. Hence, we need a methodology to predict these ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating...

  13. Adapting the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model for Forest Applications

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There has been an increasing public concern over forest stream pollution by excessive sedimentation due to natural or human disturbances. Adequate erosion simulation tools are needed for sound management of forest resources. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model has proved usef...

  14. Application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model for Soil Erosion Estimation and Conservation Planning

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, continuous- simulation, distributed parameter erosion simulation model for application to field-scale hillslope profiles and small watersheds. Developed over the past 25 years by the United States Department of Agriculture, it con...

  15. Regulatory FOCUS surface water models fail to predict insecticide concentrations in the field.

    PubMed

    Knäbel, Anja; Stehle, Sebastian; Schäfer, Ralf B; Schulz, Ralf

    2012-08-01

    The FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS) exposure models are used to predict the frequency and magnitude of pesticide surface water concentrations within the European regulatory risk assessment. The predictions are based on realistic worst-case assumptions that result in predicted environmental concentrations (PEC). Here, we compared for the first time a larger data set of 122 measured field concentrations (MFC) of agricultural insecticides extracted from 22 field studies to respective PECs by using FOCUS steps 1-4. While FOCUS step 1 and 2 PECs generally overpredicted the MFCs, 23% of step 3 and 31% of step 4 standard PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs, which questions the protectiveness of the FOCUS exposure assessment. Using realistic input parameters, step 3 simulations underpredicted MFCs in surface water and sediment by 43% and 78%, respectively, which indicate that a higher degree of realism even reduces the protectiveness of model results. The ratios between PEC and MFC in surface water were significantly lower for pyrethroids than for organophosphorus or organochlorine insecticides, which suggests that the FOCUS predictions are less protective for hydrophobic insecticides. In conclusion, the FOCUS modeling approach is not protective for insecticide concentrations in the field. PMID:22803509

  16. Abiotic stress and water scarcity: Identifying and resolving conflicts from plant level to global level

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jacob W. Kijne

    2006-01-01

    Irrigated crops are increasingly facing water scarcity and other forms of abiotic stress, including the presence of salts and other pollutants in soil and irrigation water, waterlogging and flooding of soils, low pH in acid sulfate soils, and anaerobic and toxic conditions in the rootzone. More progress has been made with the alleviation of some of these stresses than with

  17. Improved prediction of octanol-water partition coefficients from liquid-solute water solubilities and molar volumes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chiou, C.T.; Schmedding, D.W.; Manes, M.

    2005-01-01

    A volume-fraction-based solvent-water partition model for dilute solutes, in which the partition coefficient shows a dependence on solute molar volume (V??), is adapted to predict the octanol-water partition coefficient (K ow) from the liquid or supercooled-liquid solute water solubility (Sw), or vice versa. The established correlation is tested for a wide range of industrial compounds and pesticides (e.g., halogenated aliphatic hydrocarbons, alkylbenzenes, halogenated benzenes, ethers, esters, PAHs, PCBs, organochlorines, organophosphates, carbamates, and amidesureas-triazines), which comprise a total of 215 test compounds spanning about 10 orders of magnitude in Sw and 8.5 orders of magnitude in Kow. Except for phenols and alcohols, which require special considerations of the Kow data, the correlation predicts the Kow within 0.1 log units for most compounds, much independent of the compound type or the magnitude in K ow. With reliable Sw and V data for compounds of interest, the correlation provides an effective means for either predicting the unavailable log Kow values or verifying the reliability of the reported log Kow data. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

  18. 13.4.6. Strategies for Water Level

    E-print Network

    Gray, Matthew

    , (2) an elevation gradient that permits complete water coverage at desired depths over a majority of thumb. Moist-soil Vegetation The timing of a drawdown has an important influence on the composition has not been well studied for moist-soil vegetation, factors such as seed banks, soil types, soil

  19. Applying Water-Level Difference Control to Central Arizona Project

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Central Arizona Project (CAP) has been supplying Colorado River water to Central Arizona for roughly 25 years. The CAP canal is operated remotely with a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) System. Gate position changes are made either manually or through the use of automatic control...

  20. LEVEL III: RECEIVING WATER QUALITY MODELING FOR URBAN STORMWATER MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A simplified continuous receiving water quality model has been developed as a planning guide to permit preliminary screening of areawide wastewater treatment strategies. The model simulates the hypothetical response of the stream or tidal river system to the separate and combined...

  1. High-level radioactive waste from light-water reactors

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Bernard Cohen

    1977-01-01

    The production of radioactive nuclei during the operation of a light-water reactor is traced, and their decay history is followed. The potential environmental impacts of this waste are calculated and shown to be comparable to those of other materials we produce. Assuming deep burial, it is shown that there are important time delays which prevent the waste from reaching the

  2. Predictions for water clusters from a first-principles two- and three-body force field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Góra, Urszula; Cencek, Wojciech; Podeszwa, Rafa?; van der Avoird, Ad; Szalewicz, Krzysztof

    2014-05-01

    A new rigid-monomer three-body potential has been developed for water by fitting it to more than 70 thousand trimer interaction energies computed ab initio using coupled-cluster methods and augmented triple-zeta-quality basis sets. This potential was used together with a modified form of a previously developed two-body potential and with a polarization model of four- and higher-body interactions to predict the energetics of the water trimer, hexamer, and 24-mer. Despite using the rigid-monomer approximation, these predictions agree better with flexible-monomer benchmarks than published results obtained with flexible-monomer force fields. An unexpected finding of our work is that simple polarization models predict four-body interactions to within a few percent, whereas for three-body interactions these models are known to have errors on the order of 50%.

  3. Observations and estimates of wave-driven water level extremes at the Marshall Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Becker, J. M.; Ford, M.; Yao, Y.

    2014-10-01

    Wave-driven extreme water levels are examined for coastlines protected by fringing reefs using field observations obtained in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The 2% exceedence water level near the shoreline due to waves is estimated empirically for the study sites from breaking wave height at the outer reef and by combining separate contributions from setup, sea and swell, and infragravity waves, which are estimated based on breaking wave height and water level over the reef flat. Although each component exhibits a tidal dependence, they sum to yield a 2% exceedence level that does not. A hindcast based on the breaking wave height parameterization is used to assess factors leading to flooding at Roi-Namur caused by an energetic swell event during December 2008. Extreme water levels similar to December 2008 are projected to increase significantly with rising sea level as more wave and tide events combine to exceed inundation threshold levels.

  4. Automatic Measurement of Water Levels by Using Image Identification Method in Open Channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung Yang, Han; Xue Yang, Jia

    2014-05-01

    Water level data is indispensable to hydrology research, and it is important information for hydraulic engineering and overall utilization of water resources. The information of water level can be transmitted to management office by the network so that the management office may well understand whether the river level is exceeding the warning line. The existing water level measurement method can only present water levels in a form of data without any of images, the methods which make data just be a data and lack the sense of reality. Those images such as the rising or overflow of river level that the existing measurement method cannot obtain simultaneously. Therefore, this research employs a newly, improved method for water level measurement. Through the Video Surveillance System to record the images on site, an image of water surface will be snapped, and then the snapped image will be pre-processed and be compared with its altitude reference value to obtain a water level altitude value. With the ever-growing technology, the application scope of image identification is widely in increase. This research attempts to use image identification technology to analyze water level automatically. The image observation method used in this research is one of non-contact water level gage but it is quite different from other ones; the image observation method is cheap and the facilities can be set up beside an embankment of river or near the houses, thus the impact coming from external factors will be significantly reduced, and a real scene picture will be transmitted through wireless transmission. According to the dynamic water flow test held in an indoor experimental channel, the results of the research indicated that all of error levels of water level identification were less than 2% which meant the image identification could achieve identification result at different water levels. This new measurement method can offer instant river level figures and on-site video so that a disaster prevention measures can be made accordingly. Keywords: Image identification; Water Level; Video surveillance system.

  5. Numerical simulation of water-air two-phase flow in soil slope under water level rise condition

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Xiaoyue Zhang; Yueming Zhu; Chunhui Fang; Shoukai Chen

    2009-01-01

    In order to simulate the unsteady seepage in soil slopes under water level rise condition, including water seepage and air\\u000a seepage, and to investigate the influence of the capillary pressure on the slope safety coefficient, the water-air two-phase\\u000a flow model was used and its solving method and definition condition were given. By the two-phase flow model, the pore air\\u000a and

  6. Characterization of the glass transition of water predicted by molecular dynamics simulations using nonpolarizable intermolecular potentials.

    PubMed

    Kreck, Cara A; Mancera, Ricardo L

    2014-02-20

    Molecular dynamics simulations allow detailed study of the experimentally inaccessible liquid state of supercooled water below its homogeneous nucleation temperature and the characterization of the glass transition. Simple, nonpolarizable intermolecular potentials are commonly used in classical molecular dynamics simulations of water and aqueous systems due to their lower computational cost and their ability to reproduce a wide range of properties. Because the quality of these predictions varies between the potentials, the predicted glass transition of water is likely to be influenced by the choice of potential. We have thus conducted an extensive comparative investigation of various three-, four-, five-, and six-point water potentials in both the NPT and NVT ensembles. The T(g) predicted from NPT simulations is strongly correlated with the temperature of minimum density, whereas the maximum in the heat capacity plot corresponds to the minimum in the thermal expansion coefficient. In the NVT ensemble, these points are instead related to the maximum in the internal pressure and the minimum of its derivative, respectively. A detailed analysis of the hydrogen-bonding properties at the glass transition reveals that the extent of hydrogen-bonds lost upon the melting of the glassy state is related to the height of the heat capacity peak and varies between water potentials. PMID:24467489

  7. Water-Level Changes in Aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, Predevelopment to 2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    dePaul, Vincent T.; Rice, Donald E.; Zapecza, Otto S.

    2008-01-01

    The Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, which underlies a large part of the east coast of the United States, is an important source of water for more than 20 million people. As the population of the region increases, further demand is being placed on those ground-water resources. To define areas of past and current declines in ground-water levels, as well as to document changes in those levels, historical water-level data from more than 4,000 wells completed in 13 regional aquifers in the Atlantic Coastal Plain were examined. From predevelopment to 1980, substantial water-level declines occurred in many areas of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Regional variability in water-level change in the confined aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain resulted from regional differences in aquifer properties and patterns of ground-water withdrawals. Within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, declines of more than 100 ft were observed in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. Regional declines in water levels were most widespread in the deeper aquifers that were most effectively confined?the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac aquifers. Within these aquifers, water levels had declined up to 200 ft in southern Virginia and to more than 100 ft in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and North Carolina. Substantial water-level declines were also evident in the regional Lower Chesapeake aquifer in southeastern New Jersey; in the Castle Hayne-Piney Point aquifer in Delaware, Maryland, southern Virginia and east-central North Carolina; in the Peedee-Severn aquifer in east-central New Jersey and southeastern North Carolina; and in the Black Creek-Matawan aquifer in east-central New Jersey and east-central North Carolina. Conversely, declines were least severe in the regional Upper Chesapeake aquifer during this period. In the Southeastern Coastal Plain, declines of more than 100 ft in the Chattahoochee River aquifer occurred in eastern South Carolina and in southwestern Georgia, where water levels had declined approximately 140 and 200 ft from prepumping conditions, respectively. Within the Upper Floridan aquifer, decline was most pronounced in the coastal areas of Georgia and northern Florida where ground-water withdrawals were at their highest. These areas included Savannah, Jesup, and Brunswick, Ga., as well as the St. Marys, Ga. and Fernandina Beach, Fla., area. Regional water levels had declined by 80 ft near Brunswick and Fernandina Beach to as much as 160 ft near Savannah. Since 1980, water levels in many areas have continued to fall; however, in some places the rate at which levels declined has slowed. Conservation measures have served to limit withdrawals in affected areas, moderating or stabilizing water-level decline, and in some cases, resulting in substantial recovery. In other cases, increases in ground-water pumpage have resulted in continued rapid decline in water levels. From 1980 to 2000, water levels across the regional Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac aquifers continued to decline across large parts of Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina, and water levels had stabilized or recovered throughout much of Long Island and New Jersey. Substantial water-level recovery had also occurred in east-central New Jersey in the Peedee-Severn and Black Creek-Matawan aquifers and in east-central North Carolina in the Castle Hayne-Piney Point aquifer. Substantial declines from about 1980 to about 2000 occurred in the Peedee-Severn aquifer in southern New Jersey, the Beaufort-Aquia aquifer in southern Maryland, and the Black Creek-Matawan and Upper Potomac aquifers in central and southern parts of the coastal plain in North Carolina. From 1980 to about 2000, water levels within the regional Upper Floridan aquifer had generally stabilized in response to shifting withdrawal patterns and reductions in pumpage at many places within the coastal region. Ground-water levels had stabilized and recovered at the ma

  8. Short term comparison of climate model predictions and satellite altimeter measurements of sea levels

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alberto A. Boretti

    Climate models (http:\\/\\/climatecommission.govspace.gov.au\\/files\\/2011\\/05\\/4108-CC-Science-Update-PRINT-CHANGES.pdf, 2011; http:\\/\\/www.ipcc.ch\\/publications_and_data\\/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm, 2011; Rahmstorf, 2007, 2010) calculate that temperatures are increasing globally and sea level rises are increasing due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. More recent predictions (http:\\/\\/climatecommission.govspace.gov.au\\/files\\/2011\\/05\\/4108-CC-Science-Update-PRINT-CHANGES.pdf, 2011; Rahmstorf, 2007, 2010) have forecasted that sea level rises by 2100 will be higher than the 2007 projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:\\/\\/www.ipcc.ch\\/publications_and_data\\/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm, 2011), with

  9. Psychological language on Twitter predicts county-level heart disease mortality.

    PubMed

    Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R; Merchant, Raina M; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

    2015-02-01

    Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions-especially anger-emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

  10. Cerebrospinal Fluid PKR Level Predicts Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Lapalus, Pauline; Prevot, Magali; Laplanche, Jean-Louis

    2013-01-01

    The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of the proapoptotic kinase R (PKR) and its phosphorylated PKR (pPKR) are increased in Alzheimer’s disease (AD), but whether CSF PKR concentrations are associated with cognitive decline in AD patients remain unknown. In this study, 41 consecutive patients with AD and 11 patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) from our Memory Clinic were included. A lumbar puncture was performed during the following month of the clinical diagnosis and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) evaluations were repeated every 6 months during a mean follow-up of 2 years. In AD patients, linear mixed models adjusted for age and sex were used to assess the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between MMSE scores and baseline CSF levels of A? peptide (A? 1-42), Tau, phosphorylated Tau (p-Tau 181), PKR and pPKR. The mean (SD) MMSE at baseline was 20.5 (6.1) and MMSE scores declined over the follow-up (-0.12 point/month, standard error [SE]?=?0.03). A lower MMSE at baseline was associated with lower levels of CSF A? 1–42 and p-Tau 181/Tau ratio. pPKR level was associated with longitudinal MMSE changes over the follow-up, higher pPKR levels being related with an exacerbated cognitive deterioration. Other CSF biomarkers were not associated with MMSE changes over time. In aMCI patients, mean CSF biomarker levels were not different in patients who converted to AD from those who did not convert.These results suggest that at the time of AD diagnosis, a higher level of CSF pPKR can predict a faster rate of cognitive decline. PMID:23320095

  11. Comparison of 1972 and 1996 water levels in the Goleta central ground-water subbasin, Santa Barbara County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kaehler, Charles A.; Pratt, David A.; Paybins, Katherine S.

    1997-01-01

    Ground-water levels for 1996 were compared with 1972 water levels to determine if a "drought buffer" currently exists. The drought buffer was defined previously, in a litigated settlement involving the Goleta Water District, as the 1972 water level in the Central ground-water subbasin. To make this deter mination, a network of 15 well sites was selected, water levels were measured monthly from April through December 1996, and the 1996 water-level data were compared with1972 data. The study was done in cooperation with the Goleta Water District. The 1972-1996 water-level-altitude changes for corresponding months of the comparison years were averaged for each network well. These averaged changes ranged from a rise of 9.4 ft for well 2N2 to a decline of 45.0 ft for well 8K8. The results of the comparison indicate a rise in water level at 1 site (well 2N2) and a decline at 14 sites. The mean of the 14 negative average values was a decline of 24.0 ft. The altitude of the bottom of well 2N2 was higher than the bottom altitudes at the other network sites, and this well is located a few feet from a fault that acts as a hydrologic barrier. The results of the water-level comparison for the Central subbasin were influenced to some unknown degree by the areal distribution of the set of wells selected for the network and the vertical dis tribution of the perforated intervals of the wells. For this reason, the mean water-level change--a decline of 21.8 ft--calculated from the averages of the month-to-month changes for the 15 network sites, should be used with caution. In addition, the number of usable individual monthly comparison measurements available for an individual site ranged from one to nine, and averaged six. Therefore, a weighted mean of the monthly averages was calculated on the basis of the number of comparison measurements available for each site. The weighted mean is a decline of 20.9 ft. All Central subbasin wells that were idle (that is, were not being pumped) when measured in 1972 and that were measureable in 1996 were included in the network. Therefore, the network is the most inclusive possible, given the available data. The objective of the study strictly was to compare 1972 and 1996 water levels in the Central sub basin, and the conclusion is that, overall, 1996 water levels are lower than 1972 levels. In general, hydro graphs for selected network wells indicate stable or rising water levels during 1972-83, declining levels during 1984-92, and rising water levels during 1993-96.

  12. SELENIUM LEVELS IN HUMAN BLOOD, URINE, AND HAIR IN RESPONSE TO EXPOSURE VIA DRINKING WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    Blood, hair, urine and tap water samples were obtained from participants in a population exposed to varying amounts of selenium via water from home wells. Concentrations of selenium in urine and hair produced significant positive correlations with well-water selenium levels. Bloo...

  13. Terrestrial waters and sea level variations on interannual time scale W. Llovel a,

    E-print Network

    Ribes, Aurélien

    expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However to multidecadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea: Received 25 May 2010 Accepted 18 October 2010 Available online 26 October 2010 Keywords: land water storage

  14. Conjunctively optimizing flash flood control and water quality in urban water reservoirs by model predictive control and dynamic emulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, Stefano; Goedbloed, Albert; Schmitter, Petra; Castelletti, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Urban water reservoirs are a viable adaptation option to account for increasing drinking water demand of urbanized areas as they allow storage and re-use of water that is normally lost. In addition, the direct availability of freshwater reduces pumping costs and diversifies the portfolios of drinking water supply. Yet, these benefits have an associated twofold cost. Firstly, the presence of large, impervious areas increases the hydraulic efficiency of urban catchments, with short time of concentration, increased runoff rates, losses of infiltration and baseflow, and higher risk of flash floods. Secondly, the high concentration of nutrients and sediments characterizing urban discharges is likely to cause water quality problems. In this study we propose a new control scheme combining Model Predictive Control (MPC), hydro-meteorological forecasts and dynamic model emulation to design real-time operating policies that conjunctively optimize water quantity and quality targets. The main advantage of this scheme stands in its capability of exploiting real-time hydro-meteorological forecasts, which are crucial in such fast-varying systems. In addition, the reduced computational requests of the MPC scheme allows coupling it with dynamic emulators of water quality processes. The approach is demonstrated on Marina Reservoir, a multi-purpose reservoir located in the heart of Singapore and characterized by a large, highly urbanized catchment with a short (i.e. approximately one hour) time of concentration. Results show that the MPC scheme, coupled with a water quality emulator, provides a good compromise between different operating objectives, namely flood risk reduction, drinking water supply and salinity control. Finally, the scheme is used to assess the effect of source control measures (e.g. green roofs) aimed at restoring the natural hydrological regime of Marina Reservoir catchment.

  15. DOWNSTREAM-WATER-LEVEL CONTROL TEST RESULTS ON THE WM LATERAL CANAL

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    On steep canals, distant downstream water-level control can be challenging. SacMan (Software for Automated Canal Management) was developed, in part, to test various distant downstream water level controllers. It was implemented on the WM canal of the Maricopa Stanfield Irrigation and Drainage Distri...

  16. Water Level Detection for River Surveillance utilizing JP2K Wavelet Transform

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Masahiro Iwahashi; Sakol Udomsiri; Yuji Imai; Shinji Fukuma

    2006-01-01

    This report discusses how to detect water level of a river from video signal for the purpose of environmental surveillance. Video signal is assumed to be taken 24 hours a day with a Web camera installed to the river side. A DSP inside the video sensor is supposed to send the water level data regularly and video signal irregularly on

  17. A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Muhammad Aqil; Ichiro Kita; Moses Macalinao

    2006-01-01

    Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For

  18. Water levels in continuously monitored wells in the Yucca Mountain Area, Nevada, 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Lobmeyer, D.H.; Luckey, R.R.; O`Brien, G.M.; Burkhardt, D.J.

    1995-02-01

    Water levels have been monitored hourly in 16 wells representing 24 intervals in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada. Water levels were monitored using pressure transducers and were recorded by data loggers. The pressure transducers were periodically calibrated by raising and lowering them in the wells. The water levels were normally measured at approximately the same time that the transducers were calibrated. Where the transducer output appeared reasonable, it was converted to water levels using the calibrations and manual water-level measurements. The amount of transducer output that was converted to water levels ranged from zero for one interval to 100 percent for one interval. Fifteen of the wells were completed in Tertiary volcanic rocks and one well was completed in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Each well monitored from one to four depth intervals. Water-level fluctuation caused by barometric pressure changes and earth tides were observed. Transducer output is presented in graphic form and, where appropriate, water-level altitude is presented in graphical and tabular form.

  19. Possible tilt phenomena observed as water level anomalies along the Los Angeles Aqueduct

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter C. Leary; Peter E. Malin; Richard A. Strelitz; Thomas L. Henyey

    1981-01-01

    Water levels in the Los Angeles Aqueduct in southern California fluctuate in a manner that are not easily attributable to normal aqueduct operations. Simple hydraulics suggests that large scale earth tilt can register as water level anomalies with a sensitivity of about .01 ft\\/microradian. Two aqueduct anamalies which coincide spatially and temporally with independently observed deformational phenomena are used to

  20. Associations Between Drinking Water and Urinary Arsenic Levels and Skin Lesions in

    E-print Network

    van Geen, Alexander

    Graziano, PhD The present study examined the associations between drinking water and urinary arsenic levels to: Dr Habibul Ahsan, Division of Epidemiology, Room PH-18-130, Columbia University Medical CenterAssociations Between Drinking Water and Urinary Arsenic Levels and Skin Lesions in Bangladesh

  1. Circulating Level of miR-378 Predicts Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Patients with Aortic Stenosis

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Yuanning; Li, Yajiao; Yang, Hao; Rao, Li

    2014-01-01

    Aims Excessively high left ventricle mass is an independent predictor of adverse prognosis. MicroRNAs (miRs) play crucial roles in the regulation of left ventricle hypertrophy (LVH). However, few circulating miRs have been established as predictors of LVH in aortic stenosis (AS) patients. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether circulating levels of miR-1, miR-133, and miR-378 predict LVH in patients with AS. Methods and Results One-hundred twelve patients with moderate to severe AS and 40 healthy controls were included in the study. Levels of miR-1, miR-133, and miR-378 in the plasma were measured by qPCR. Compared with healthy controls, AS patients had significantly lower circulating levels of miR-1, miR-133, and miR-378. AS patients with LVH had significantly lower miR-378 but not miR-1 and miR-133 compared with those without LVH. Linear regression analysis showed circulating miR-378 had strong correlation with left ventricular mass index (r?=?0.283, p?=?0.002) and logistic regression showed that lower miR-378 was an independent predictor for LVH in patients with AS (p?=?0.037, OR 4.110, 95% CI 1.086 to 15.558). Conclusion Circulating levels of miR-1, miR-133 and miR-378 were decreased in AS patients, and miR-378 predicts LVH independent of the pressure gradient. Further prospective investigations are needed to elucidate whether these circulating miRs affect clinical outcome. PMID:25157568

  2. Experimental and predicted cavitation performance of an 80.6 deg helical inducer in high temperature water

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kovich, G.

    1972-01-01

    The cavitating performance of a stainless steel 80.6 degree flat-plate helical inducer was investigated in water over a range of liquid temperatures and flow coefficients. A semi-empirical prediction method was used to compare predicted values of required net positive suction head in water with experimental values obtained in water. Good agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental data in water. The required net positive suction head in water decreased with increasing temperature and increased with flow coefficient, similar to that observed for a like inducer in liquid hydrogen.

  3. Predictive models applied to groundwater level forecasting: a preliminary experience on the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brozzo, Gianpiero; Doveri, Marco; Lelli, Matteo; Scozzari, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    Computer-based decision support systems are getting a growing interest for water managing authorities and water distribution companies. This work discusses a preliminary experience in the application of computational intelligence in a hydrological modeling framework, regarding the study area of the alluvial aquifer of the Magra River (Italy). Two sites in the studied area, corresponding to two distinct groups of wells (Battifollo and Fornola) are managed by the local drinkable water distribution company (ACAM Acque), which serves the area of La Spezia, on the Ligurian coast. Battifollo has 9 wells with a total extraction rate of about 240 liters per second, while Fornola has 44 wells with an extraction rate of about 900 liters per second. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term monitoring activities in order to assess the trend of the groundwater level with respect to a set of environmental and exploitation parameters; this is accomplished by the experimentation of a suitable model, eligible to be used as a predictor. This activity moves on from the modeling of the system behavior, based on a set of Input/Output data, in order to characterize it without necessarily a prior knowledge of any deterministic mechanism (system identification). In this context, data series collected by continuous hydrological monitoring instrumentation installed in the studied sites, together with meteorological and water extraction data, have been analyzed in order to assess the applicability and performance of a predictive model of the groundwater level. A mixed approach (both data driven and process-based) has been experimented on the whole dataset relating to the last ten years of continuous monitoring activity. The system identification approach presented here is based on the integration of an adaptive technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a blind deterministic identification approach. According to this concept, the behavior of the natural system can be partly explained in terms of its impulse response, identified as an arbitrary function, optimally fitted to the behavior observed in the past time series. In the proposed method, the approximation of the natural behavior of the system derives from the decomposition of the excitation signals (input parameters) into sequences of discrete values. Data fed to the ANN are thus pre-processed according to this concept. In the particular case study presented in this work, the proximity of the Magra River mixes the short-term effects of the hydraulic level of the river with the slower rainfall effects that diffusely feed the groundwater system, making the analysis even more challenging. In addition to piezometric levels, also continuous conductivity data series are available for the same period, and have been taken into account separately in this preliminary experience. The availability of the electrical conductivity parameter opens the way to the modeling of the different contributions to the groundwater reservoir, and may also enable the prediction of some water quality features, as discussed in this work. The preliminary analysis of meteorological and hydrologic data sets is discussed in this work, and goes through the following steps: a) description of the dataset, b) description of the model developed, c) model tuning, d) discussion of results and applicability as a predictor.

  4. Tissue spectrophotometry and thermographic imaging applied to routine clinical prediction of amputation level viability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, Jon M.; Harrison, David K.; Hawthorn, Ian E.

    2002-06-01

    About 5% of British males over 50 years develop peripheral arterial occlusive disease. Of these about 2% ultimately require lower limb amputation. In 1995 we proposed a new technique using lightguide spectrophotometry to measure the oxygen saturation level of haemoglobin (SO2) in the skin as a method for predicting tissue viability. This technique, in combination with thermographic imaging, was compared with skin blood flow measurements using the I125)4- Iodoantipyrine (IAP) clearance technique. The optical techniques gave a sensitivity and selectivity of 1.0 for the prediction of successful outcome of a below knee amputation compared with a specificity of 93% using the traditional IAP technique at a below knee to above knee amputation ratio (BKA:AKA) of 75%. The present study assesses the routine clinical application of these optical techniques. The study is ongoing, but the data to date comprises 22 patients. 4 patients were recommended for above knee amputation (AKA) and 18 patients for below knee amputation on the basis of thermographic and tissue SO2 measurements. All but one of the predicted BKA amputations healed. The study to date produces evidence of 94% healing rate (specificity) for a BKA:AKA ratio of 82%. This compares favorably with the previous figures given above.

  5. Prediction of the hemoglobin level in hemodialysis patients using machine learning techniques.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Martínez, José M; Escandell-Montero, Pablo; Barbieri, Carlo; Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Mari, Flavio; Martínez-Sober, Marcelino; Amato, Claudia; Serrano López, Antonio J; Bassi, Marcello; Magdalena-Benedito, Rafael; Stopper, Andrea; Martín-Guerrero, José D; Gatti, Emanuele

    2014-11-01

    Patients who suffer from chronic renal failure (CRF) tend to suffer from an associated anemia as well. Therefore, it is essential to know the hemoglobin (Hb) levels in these patients. The aim of this paper is to predict the hemoglobin (Hb) value using a database of European hemodialysis patients provided by Fresenius Medical Care (FMC) for improving the treatment of this kind of patients. For the prediction of Hb, both analytical measurements and medication dosage of patients suffering from chronic renal failure (CRF) are used. Two kinds of models were trained, global and local models. In the case of local models, clustering techniques based on hierarchical approaches and the adaptive resonance theory (ART) were used as a first step, and then, a different predictor was used for each obtained cluster. Different global models have been applied to the dataset such as Linear Models, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Regression Trees among others. Also a relevance analysis has been carried out for each predictor model, thus finding those features that are most relevant for the given prediction. PMID:25070755

  6. Spring water level stabilization and relationships between hydrologic, biologic, and fishery characteristics of TVA reservoirs

    SciTech Connect

    Yeager, B.L.; McDonough, T.A.; Taylor, J.

    1992-01-01

    Reservoir operations and annual variation in hydrology result in substantial fluctuations of water level within impoundments. Since the 1950s, TVA has attempted to stabilize tributary reservoir pool levels for a two-week period when water temperatures reach 65[degree]F at a depth of five feet. These conditions approximate the peak spawning season for largemouth bass, an important sport fish of the Tennessee River Valley. The current water level stabilization program was established to benefit largemouth bass. However, the benefits of the current spring stabilization procedures accrue, not to bass, but to another important sportfish, the white crappie. An earlier stabilization period would likely be of even greater benefit to white crappie. Phase-two of this project will provide a more detailed evaluation of the effects of timing and duration of spring water level stabilization and allow us to recommend specific optimizing modifications. Pending these recommendations, the water level stabilization program should continue as implemented.

  7. Analytical Versus Numerical Estimates of Water-Level Declines Caused by Pumping, and a Case Study of the Iao Aquifer, Maui, Hawaii

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oki, Delwyn S.; Meyer, William

    2001-01-01

    Comparisons were made between model-calculated water levels from a one-dimensional analytical model referred to as RAM (Robust Analytical Model) and those from numerical ground-water flow models using a sharp-interface model code. RAM incorporates the horizontal-flow assumption and the Ghyben-Herzberg relation to represent flow in a one-dimensional unconfined aquifer that contains a body of freshwater floating on denser saltwater. RAM does not account for the presence of a low-permeability coastal confining unit (caprock), which impedes the discharge of fresh ground water from the aquifer to the ocean, nor for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells, which is significant because water-level declines are greatest in the vicinity of withdrawal wells. Numerical ground-water flow models can readily account for discharge through a coastal confining unit and for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. For a given aquifer hydraulic-conductivity value, recharge rate, and withdrawal rate, model-calculated steady-state water-level declines from RAM can be significantly less than those from numerical ground-water flow models. The differences between model-calculated water-level declines from RAM and those from numerical models are partly dependent on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer system and the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. RAM invariably predicts the greatest water-level declines at the inland extent of the aquifer where the freshwater body is thickest and the potential for saltwater intrusion is lowest. For cases in which a low-permeability confining unit overlies the aquifer near the coast, however, water-level declines calculated from numerical models may exceed those from RAM even at the inland extent of the aquifer. Since 1990, RAM has been used by the State of Hawaii Commission on Water Resource Management for establishing sustainable-yield values for the State?s aquifers. Data from the Iao aquifer, which lies on the northeastern flank of the West Maui Volcano and which is confined near the coast by caprock, are now available to evaluate the predictive capability of RAM for this system. In 1995 and 1996, withdrawal from the Iao aquifer reached the 20 million gallon per day sustainable-yield value derived using RAM. However, even before 1996, water levels in the aquifer had declined significantly below those predicted by RAM, and continued to decline in 1997. To halt the decline of water levels and to preclude the intrusion of salt-water into the four major well fields in the aquifer, it was necessary to reduce withdrawal from the aquifer system below the sustainable-yield value derived using RAM. In the Iao aquifer, the decline of measured water levels below those predicted by RAM is consistent with the results of the numerical model analysis. Relative to model-calculated water-level declines from numerical ground-water flow models, (1) RAM underestimates water-level declines in areas where a low-permeability confining unit exists, and (2) RAM underestimates water-level declines in the vicinity of withdrawal wells.

  8. Natural radioactivity levels in bottled water in Spain

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. C. Fernández; E. Liger; J. Carretero

    1997-01-01

    Spain is a country rich in mineral springs. A nationwide study on the natural radioactivity has been made to determine the gross-? and gross-? activities in bottled water. These measurements are important for extracting radiological information of the activity present in a sample. Of all samples collected, only 26.2% have an ?-activity higher than 100 mBq\\/l, and none of them

  9. System engineering for water pollution control at the watershed level in China

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Wei Meng

    2009-01-01

    The present water pollution situation at watershed level in China has been systematically analyzed. The causes of water pollution\\u000a are attributed to the extensive economic developmental pattern, poor wastewater treatment, and a lack of nonpoint pollution\\u000a control. The problems of water pollution control at watershed level include a lack of thought and approach, developmental\\u000a delay in the environmental standard system,

  10. Cyclic water level oscillations of the KaraBogazGol–Caspian Sea system

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. Giralt; R. Julià; S. Leroy; F. Gasse

    2003-01-01

    The KaraBogazGol (KBG) water level oscillations were reconstructed in the last 200 years using the geochemical evolution of the uppermost meter of its sedimentary infill. High-resolution studies of the mineralogical composition of the KBG sediments show alternating periods of high concentration brines followed by periods of more dilute waters. The relative water level reconstruction was based on statistical models (factor

  11. Short-term Solar Flare Level Prediction Using a Bayesian Network Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Daren; Huang, Xin; Wang, Huaning; Cui, Yanmei; Hu, Qinghua; Zhou, Rui

    2010-02-01

    A Bayesian network approach for short-term solar flare level prediction has been proposed based on three sequences of photospheric magnetic field parameters extracted from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms. The magnetic measures, the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line, and the number of singular points do not have determinate relationships with solar flares, so the solar flare level prediction is considered as an uncertainty reasoning process modeled by the Bayesian network. The qualitative network structure which describes conditional independent relationships among magnetic field parameters and the quantitative conditional probability tables which determine the probabilistic values for each variable are learned from the data set. Seven sequential features—the maximum, the mean, the root mean square, the standard deviation, the shape factor, the crest factor, and the pulse factor—are extracted to reduce the dimensions of the raw sequences. Two Bayesian network models are built using raw sequential data (BN_R) and feature extracted data (BN_F), respectively. The explanations of these models are consistent with physical analyses of experts. The performances of the BN_R and the BN_F appear comparable with other methods. More importantly, the comprehensibility of the Bayesian network models is better than other methods.

  12. Controller Strategies for Automation Tool Use under Varying Levels of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morey, Susan; Prevot, Thomas; Mercer, Joey; Martin, Lynne; Bienert, Nancy; Cabrall, Christopher; Hunt, Sarah; Homola, Jeffrey; Kraut, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted to examine the effects of varying levels of trajectory prediction uncertainty on air traffic controller workload and performance, as well as how strategies and the use of decision support tools change in response. This paper focuses on the strategies employed by two controllers from separate teams who worked in parallel but independently under identical conditions (airspace, arrival traffic, tools) with the goal of ensuring schedule conformance and safe separation for a dense arrival flow in en route airspace. Despite differences in strategy and methods, both controllers achieved high levels of schedule conformance and safe separation. Overall, results show that trajectory uncertainties introduced by wind and aircraft performance prediction errors do not affect the controllers' ability to manage traffic. Controller strategies were fairly robust to changes in error, though strategies were affected by the amount of delay to absorb (scheduled time of arrival minus estimated time of arrival). Using the results and observations, this paper proposes an ability to dynamically customize the display of information including delay time based on observed error to better accommodate different strategies and objectives.

  13. Developing methods to assess and predict the population level effects of environmental contaminants.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Springman, K.R.

    2007-01-01

    The field of ecological toxicity seems largely to have drifted away from what its title implies--assessing and predicting the ecological consequences of environmental contaminants--moving instead toward an emphasis on individual effects and physiologic case studies. This paper elucidates how a relatively new ecological methodology, interaction assessment (INTASS), could be useful in addressing the field's initial goals. Specifically, INTASS is a model platform and methodology, applicable across a broad array of taxa and habitat types, that can be used to construct population dynamics models from field data. Information on environmental contaminants and multiple stressors can be incorporated into these models in a form that bypasses the problems inherent in assessing uptake, chemical interactions in the environment, and synergistic effects in the organism. INTASS can, therefore, be used to evaluate the effects of contaminants and other stressors at the population level and to predict how changes in stressor levels or composition of contaminant mixtures, as well as various mitigation measures, might affect population dynamics.

  14. Prediction of urban water demand on the basis of Engel's coefficient and Hoffmann index: case studies in Beijing and Jinan, China.

    PubMed

    Zhi-Guo, Zhang; Yi-sheng, Shao; Zong-xue, Xu

    2010-01-01

    Domestic and industrial water uses are the most important segment of urban water consumption. Traditional urban water demand models are usually based on water consumption quotas or statistical relationships, which usually overestimate urban water demands. The efficiency of domestic and industrial water uses is associated with living standards and levels of industrialization. The correlation coefficient between per capita water consumption and Engel's Coefficient in Beijing and Jinan is 0.62 and 0.53, respectively. These values are much smaller than the correlation between added industrial value and the Hoffmann Index in Beijing (0.95) and Jinan (0.90). Demand models for urban water consumption, including a domestic water demand model based on Engel's Coefficient and an industrial water demand model based on the Hoffmann Index, were developed in this study to predict urban water demand in Beijing and Jinan for 2020. The results show that the models can effectively capture the trends of urban water demand. Urban water consumption in these two cities from 1995 to 2007 was used to calibrate the models. The coefficients of determination for residential and industrial water uses were 0.93 and 0.68 in Beijing, and 0.79 and 0.64 in Jinan. Social, economic and climate scenarios for Beijing and Jinan in 2020 were generated according to the Urban Master Plans for these two cities, and they formed the basis for predictions of water consumption in 2020. The results show that total water consumption will increase by 67.6% in Jinan and 33.0% in Beijing when compared with consumption from 2007. PMID:20651447

  15. Generalized water-level contours, September-October 2000 and March-April 2001, and long-term water-level changes, at the U.S. Air Force Plant 42 and vicinity, Palmdale, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christensen, Allen H.

    2005-01-01

    Historically, the U.S. Air Force Plant 42 has relied on ground water as the primary source of water owing, in large part, to the scarcity of surface water in the region. Groundwater withdrawal for municipal, industrial, and agricultural use has affected ground-water levels at U.S. Air Force Plant 42, and vicinity. A study to document changes in groundwater gradients and to present historical water-level data was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force. This report presents historical water-level data, hydrographs, and generalized seasonal water-level and water-level contours for September?October 2000 and March?April 2001. The collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water flow systems, and consequently water availability. During September?October 2000 and March?April 2001 the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made a total of 102 water-level measurements, 46 during September?October 2000 and 56 during March?April 2001. These data document recent conditions and, when compared with historical data, document changes in ground-water levels. Two water-level contour maps were drawn: the first depicts water-level conditions for September?October 2000 map and the second depicts water-level conditions for March?April 2001 map. In general, the water-level contour maps show water-level depressions formed as result of ground-water withdrawal. One hundred sixteen long-term hydrographs, using water-level data from 1915 through 2000, were constructed to show water-level trends in the area. The hydrographs indicate that water-level decline occurred throughout the study area, with the greatest declines south of U.S. Air Force Plant 42.

  16. Effects of Water Level on Three Wetlands Soil Seed Banks on the Tibetan Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Miaojun; Ma, Zhen; Du, Guozhen

    2014-01-01

    Background Although the effect of water level on germination in soil seed banks has been documented in many ecosystems, the mechanism is not fully understood, and to date no empirical studies on this subject exist. Further, no work has been done on the effect of water level on seed banks of drying and saline-alkaline wetlands in alpine areas on the Tibetan Plateau. Methodology We examined the effects of water level (0 cm, 5 cm and 10 cm) on seed germination and seedling establishment from soil seed banks at 0–5 cm and 5–10 cm depths in typical, drying, and saline-alkaline wetlands. We also explore the potential role of soil seed bank in restoration of drying and saline-alkaline wetlands. Principal Findings Species richness decreased with increase in water level, but there almost no change in seed density. A huge difference exists in species composition of the seed bank among different water levels in all three wetlands, especially between 0 cm and 5 cm and 0 cm and 10 cm. Similarity of species composition between seed bank and plant community was higher in 0 cm water level in drying wetland than in the other two wetlands. The similarity was much higher in 0 cm water level than in 5 cm and 10 cm water levels in all three wetlands. Species composition of the alpine wetland plant community changed significantly after drying and salinization, however, species composition of the seed bank was unchanged regardless of the environment change. Conclusions/Significance Water level greatly affects seed bank recruitment and plant community establishment. Further, different water levels in restored habitats are likely to determine its species composition of the plant community. The seed bank is important in restoration of degraded wetlands. Successful restoration of drying and salinization wetlands could depend on the seed bank. PMID:24984070

  17. An Analysis of Historical Impacts of Water Resources Development on Water Levels of the Mekong River (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cochrane, T. A.; Arias, M. E.; Piman, T.

    2013-12-01

    The rapid rate of water resources development in the Mekong basin of Southeast Asia is a cause for concern due to potential impacts on highly valued fisheries and natural ecosystems. Historical water levels of the Mekong were analyzed by comparing pre and post 1991 daily data of 6 stations along the mainstream from Chiang Sean, in northern Lao PDR and Thailand, to Stung Treng, in Cambodia, and the Pre Kdam station near the Tonle Sap Lake in the lower Mekong floodplain using the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) software. The year 1991 marks a turning point in the rate of development in the basin, with the start of development of mainstream dams in the upper Mekong and accelerated hydropower and irrigation development in key tributaries. Observed changes in water level patterns along the Mekong were linked to temporal and spatial water resources development from 1960 to 2010. Variations in climate were accounted for and are important, but they were not observed to be the main causes of changes in key hydrological indicators related to ecosystem productivity. The development of mainstream dams in the upper Mekong basin in the post 1991 period resulted in a significant change of seasonal water levels, raise rates, fall rates, and the number of water level fluctuations at Chiang Sean. This effect diminishes downstream until it becomes negligible at the Mukdahan monitoring station in Thailand, which represents a drainage area of over 50% of the total Mekong Basin. Further downstream at Pakse station in Southern Lao PDR, changes in hydrological indicators post 1991 were observed to be significant again, which can be directly attributed to water resource development in the Chi and Mun River basins in Northeastern Thailand. A reduction of 23% and 11% in water level raising rates and fall rates, respectively at Prek Kdam, provides clear evidence of a diminished flood pulse of the Tonle Sap Lake in the post 1991 period. Given the observed water level alterations from 1991 to 2010 as a result of water infrastructure development, we can extrapolate that future proposed development in the key transboundary Srepok, Sesan and Sekong basins of the Lower Mekong will have an even greater effect on the flood pulse of the Tonle Sap. Although much focus has been placed on impacts of mainstream dams in the upper Mekong, our analysis clearly shows that tributary development in the lower Mekong has already affected water level patterns significantly, particularly in the dry season. Through subsequent modeling we infer how future development could further impact water flows and livelihoods, and thus improve regional impact assessments. The analysis and methods can be translated to other river systems around the world undergoing rapid water resources development.

  18. Cumulative Depression Episodes Predicts Later C-Reactive Protein Levels: A Prospective Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Copeland, William E.; Shanahan, Lilly; Worthman, Carol; Angold, Adrian; Costello, E. Jane

    2013-01-01

    Background Depression is associated with elevated levels of the inflammation marker C -reactive protein (CRP), yet the direction of this association remains unclear. This study tested bi-directional longitudinal associations between CRP and depression in a sample of adolescent and young adults. The study compared the effects of current depression to the cumulative episodes of depression over time. Methods Nine waves of data from the prospective population-based Great Smoky Mountains Study (N = 1,420) were used, covering children in the community aged 9–16, 19, and 21 years old. Structured interviews were used to assess depressive symptoms, depression diagnosis, and cumulative depressive episodes. Bloodspots were collected at each observation and assayed for CRP levels. Results CRP levels were not associated with later depression status. In contrast, all depression-related variables displayed evidence of association with later CRP levels. The associations with depressive symptoms and diagnostic status were attenuated after controlling for covariates particularly body mass index, smoking, and medication use. The effect of cumulative depressive episodes, however, continued to be significant after accounting for a range of covariates. Body mass index, smoking behavior and recent infections may mediate a portion of the effect of cumulative episodes on later CRP, but cumulative depressive episodes continued to predict CRP levels independently. Conclusions The occurrence of multiple depressive episodes exerted the greatest effect on later CRP levels. This suggests that risk for the diseases of middle age - cardiovascular and metabolic disease – may begin in childhood and depend, in part, upon long-term emotional functioning. PMID:22047718

  19. Changes in Water Levels and Storage in the High Plains Aquifer, Predevelopment to 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, V.L.

    2009-01-01

    The High Plains aquifer underlies 111.6 million acres (174,000 square miles) in parts of eight States - Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. The area overlying the High Plains aquifer is one of the primary agricultural regions in the Nation. Water-level declines began in parts of the High Plains aquifer soon after the beginning of substantial irrigation with ground water in the aquifer area. By 1980, water levels in the High Plains aquifer in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and southwestern Kansas had declined more than 100 feet (Luckey and others, 1981). In response to these water-level declines, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with numerous Federal, State, and local water-resources agencies, began monitoring more than 7,000 wells in 1988 to assess annual water-level changes in the aquifer. This fact sheet summarizes changes in water levels and drainable water in storage in the High Plains aquifer from predevelopment (before about 1950) to 2007 and serves as a companion product to a USGS report that presents more detailed and technical information about water-level and storage changes in the High Plains aquifer during this period (McGuire, 2009).

  20. Modified atmosphere packaging for prevention of mold spoilage of bakery products with different pH and water activity levels.

    PubMed

    Guynot, M E; Marín, S; Sanchis, V; Ramos, A J

    2003-10-01

    A sponge cake analog was used to study the influence of pH, water activity (aw), and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on the growth of seven fungal species commonly causing bakery product spoilage (Eurotium amstelodami, Eurotium herbariorum, Eurotium repens, Eurotium rubrum, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus flavus, and Penicillium corylophilum). A full factorial design was used. Water activity, CO2, and their interaction were the main factors significantly affecting fungal growth. Water activity at levels of 0.80 to 0.90 had a significant influence on fungal growth and determined the concentration of CO2 needed to prevent cake analog spoilage. At an aw level of 0.85, lag phases increased twofold when the level of CO2 in the headspace increased from 0 to 70%. In general, no fungal growth was observed for up to 28 days of incubation at 25 degrees C when samples were packaged with 100% CO2, regardless of the aw level. Partial least squares projection to latent structures regression was used to build a polynomial model to predict sponge cake shelf life on the basis of the lag phases of all seven species tested. The model developed explained quite well (R2 = 79%) the growth of almost all species, which responded similarly to changes in tested factors. The results of this study emphasize the importance of combining several hurdles, such as modified atmosphere packaging, aw, and pH, that have synergistic or additive effects on the inhibition of mold growth. PMID:14572225

  1. A SCREENING ASSESSMENT OF THE RELATIVE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL WATER SUPPLIES TO SALT WATER INTRUSION CAUSED BY SEA LEVEL RISE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Sea levels have risen from four to eight inches in the 20th century, and model projections suggest an additional rise of 8 to 15 inches is possible during the 21st century. Rising sea levels can increase the upstream extent of salt water influence in coastal aquifers. In coasta...

  2. Bio-predictive tablet disintegration: effect of water diffusivity, fluid flow, food composition and test conditions.

    PubMed

    Radwan, Asma; Wagner, Manfred; Amidon, Gordon L; Langguth, Peter

    2014-06-16

    Food intake may delay tablet disintegration. Current in vitro methods have little predictive potential to account for such effects. The effect of a variety of factors on the disintegration of immediate release tablets in the gastrointestinal tract has been identified. They include viscosity of the media, precipitation of food constituents on the surface of the tablet and reduction of water diffusivity in the media as well as changes in the hydrodynamics in the surrounding media of the solid dosage form. In order to improve the predictability of food affecting the disintegration of a dosage form, tablet disintegration in various types of a liquefied meal has been studied under static vs. dynamic (agitative) conditions. Viscosity, water diffusivity, osmolality and Reynolds numbers for the different media were characterized. A quantitative model is introduced which predicts the influence of the Reynolds number in the tablet disintegration apparatus on the disintegration time. Viscosity, water diffusivity and media flow velocity are shown to be important factors affecting dosage form disintegration. The results suggest the necessity of considering these parameters when designing a predictive model for simulating the in vivo conditions. Based on these experiments and knowledge on in vivo hydrodynamics in the GI tract, it is concluded that the disintegration tester under current pharmacopoeial conditions is operated in an unphysiological mode and no bioprediction may be derived. Recommendations regarding alternative mode of operation are made. PMID:24036239

  3. Environmental Factors Predicting Blood Lead Levels in Pregnant Women in the UK: The ALSPAC Study

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Caroline M.; Golding, Jean; Hibbeln, Joseph; Emond, Alan M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Lead is a widespread environmental toxin. The behaviour and academic performance of children can be adversely affected even at low blood lead levels (BLL) of 5–10 µg/dl. An important contribution to the infant's lead load is provided by maternal transfer during pregnancy. Objectives Our aim was to determine BLL in a large cohort of pregnant women in the UK and to identify the factors that contribute to BLL in pregnant women. Methods Pregnant women resident in the Avon area of the UK were enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) in 1991–1992. Whole blood samples were collected at median gestational age of 11 weeks and analysed by inductively coupled plasma dynamic reaction cell mass spectrometry (n?=?4285). Self-completion postal questionnaires were used to collect data during pregnancy on lifestyle, diet and other environmental exposures. Statistical analysis was carried out with SPSS v19. Results The mean±SD BLL was 3.67±1.47 (median 3.41, range 0.41–19.14) µg/dl. Higher educational qualification was found to be one of the strongest independent predictor of BLL in an adjusted backwards stepwise logistic regression to predict maternal BLL <5 or ?5 µg/dl (odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.12–1.42; p<0.001). Other predictive factors included cigarette smoking, alcohol and coffee drinking, and heating the home with a coal fire, with some evidence for iron and calcium intake having protective effects. Conclusion The mean BLL in this group of pregnant women is higher than has been found in similar populations in developed countries. The finding that high education attainment was independently associated with higher BLL was unexpected and currently unexplained. Reduction in maternal lead levels can best be undertaken by reducing intake of the social drugs cigarettes, alcohol and caffeine, although further investigation of the effect of calcium on lead levels is needed. PMID:24039753

  4. Water-Level Data Analysis for the Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow and Transport Model

    SciTech Connect

    P. Tucci

    2001-12-20

    This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an updated analysis of water-level data performed to provide the saturated-zone, site-scale flow and transport model (CRWMS M&O 2000) with the configuration of the potentiometric surface, target water-level data, and hydraulic gradients for model calibration. The previous analysis was presented in ANL-NBS-HS-000034, Rev 00 ICN 01, Water-Level Data Analysis for the Saturated Zone Site-Scale Flow and Transport Model (USGS 2001). This analysis is designed to use updated water-level data as the basis for estimating water-level altitudes and the potentiometric surface in the SZ site-scale flow and transport model domain. The objectives of this revision are to develop computer files containing (1) water-level data within the model area (DTN: GS010908312332.002), (2) a table of known vertical head differences (DTN: GS0109083 12332.003), and (3) a potentiometric-surface map (DTN: GS010608312332.001) using an alternate concept from that presented in ANL-NBS-HS-000034, Rev 00 ICN 01 for the area north of Yucca Mountain. The updated water-level data include data obtained from the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) and data from borehole USW WT-24. In addition to being utilized by the SZ site-scale flow and transport model, the water-level data and potentiometric-surface map contained within this report will be available to other government agencies and water users for ground-water management purposes. The potentiometric surface defines an upper boundary of the site-scale flow model, as well as provides information useful to estimation of the magnitude and direction of lateral ground-water flow within the flow system. Therefore, the analysis documented in this revision is important to SZ flow and transport calculations in support of total system performance assessment.

  5. Changes in water levels and storage in the High Plains Aquifer, predevelopment to 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, V.L.

    2011-01-01

    The High Plains aquifer underlies 111.8 million acres (175,000 square miles) in parts of eight States - Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. The area overlying the High Plains aquifer is one of the primary agricultural regions in the Nation. Water-level declines began in parts of the High Plains aquifer soon after the onset of substantial irrigation with groundwater from the aquifer (about 1950 and termed "predevelopment" in this fact sheet). By 1980, water levels in the High Plains aquifer in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and southwestern Kansas had declined more than 100 feet (ft) (Luckey and others, 1981). In 1987, in response to declining water levels, Congress directed the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with numerous Federal, State, and local water-resources entities, to assess and track water-level changes in the aquifer. This fact sheet summarizes changes in water levels and drainable water in storage in the High Plains aquifer from predevelopment to 2009. Drainable water in storage is the fraction of water in the aquifer that will drain by gravity and can be withdrawn by wells. The remaining water in the aquifer is held to the aquifer material by capillary forces and generally cannot be withdrawn by wells. Drainable water in storage is termed "water in storage" in this report. A companion USGS report presents more detailed and technical information about water-level and storage changes in the High Plains aquifer during this period (McGuire, 2011).

  6. Application of Method of Variation to Analyze and Predict Human Induced Modifications of Water Resource Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dessu, S. B.; Melesse, A. M.; Mahadev, B.; McClain, M.

    2010-12-01

    Water resource systems have often used gravitational surface and subsurface flows because of their practicality in hydrological modeling and prediction. Activities such as inter/intra-basin water transfer, the use of small pumps and the construction of micro-ponds challenge the tradition of natural rivers as water resource management unit. On the contrary, precipitation is barely affected by topography and plot harvesting in wet regions can be more manageable than diverting from rivers. Therefore, it is indicative to attend to systems where precipitation drives the dynamics while the internal mechanics constitutes spectrum of human activity and decision in a network of plots. The trade-in volume and path of harvested precipitation depends on water balance, energy balance and the kinematics of supply and demand. Method of variation can be used to understand and predict the implication of local excess precipitation harvest and exchange on the natural water system. A system model was developed using the variational form of Euler-Bernoulli’s equation for the Kenyan Mara River basin. Satellite derived digital elevation models, precipitation estimates, and surface properties such as fractional impervious surface area, are used to estimate the available water resource. Four management conditions are imposed in the model: gravitational flow, open water extraction and high water use investment at upstream and downstream respectively. According to the model, the first management maintains the basin status quo while the open source management could induce externality. The high water market at the upstream in the third management offers more than 50% of the basin-wide total revenue to the upper third section of the basin thus may promote more harvesting. The open source and upstream exploitation suggest potential drop of water availability to downstream. The model exposed the latent potential of economic gradient to reconfigure the flow network along the direction where the marginal benefit is maximized. Therefore, the variation model can help to predict the possible human induced modification of natural water system in order to gain the maximum productivity and benefit.

  7. A coupled model tree genetic algorithm scheme for flow and water quality predictions in watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Preis, Ami; Ostfeld, Avi

    2008-02-01

    SummaryThe rapid advance in information processing systems along with the increasing data availability have directed research towards the development of intelligent systems that evolve models of natural phenomena automatically. This is the discipline of data driven modeling which is the study of algorithms that improve automatically through experience. Applications of data driven modeling range from data mining schemes that discover general rules in large data sets, to information filtering systems that automatically learn users' interests. This study presents a data driven modeling algorithm for flow and water quality load predictions in watersheds. The methodology is comprised of a coupled model tree-genetic algorithm scheme. The model tree predicts flow and water quality constituents while the genetic algorithm is employed for calibrating the model tree parameters. The methodology is demonstrated through base runs and sensitivity analysis for daily flow and water quality load predictions on a watershed in northern Israel. The method produced close fits in most cases, but was limited in estimating the peak flows and water quality loads.

  8. Water levels in, extent of freshwater in, and water withdrawal from eight major confined aquifers, New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Rosman, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Water levels in 722 wells in the Coastal Plain of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and northeastern Delaware were measured during October and November 1993 and were used to define the potentiometric surface of the eight major confined aquifers of the area. Isochlors (lines of equal chloride concentration) for 250 and 10,000 milligrams per liter are included to show the extent of freshwater in each of the aquifers. Estimated water withdrawals from the eight major confined aquifers are reported for 1978-94. Water-withdrawal and water-level maps including isochlors were constructed for the Cohansey aquifer of Cape May County, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, the Piney Point aquifer, the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, the Englishtown aquifer system, the Upper Potomac-Raritan-Magothy, the Middle and undifferentiated Potomac-Raritan-Magothy, and the Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers. From 1988 to 1993, water levels near the center of the large cones of depression in the Middlesex-Monmouth County area rose as much as 120 ft in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and Englishtown aquifer system, 40 ft in the Upper Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer, and 96 ft in the Middle and undifferentiated Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers. Large cones of depression in the potentiometric surface of aquifers of the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the Burlington-Camden-Gloucester area remained at about the same altitude; that is, the potentiometric surface neither rose nor fell in the aquifers by more than 5 feet. In the same area, water levels in the Englishtown aquifer system were static, whereas the water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer declined 5 to 20 feet, forming an expanded cone of depression. Water levels in the Cohansey, Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and Piney Point aquifers declined by 1 to 10 feet during 1988?93.

  9. Evaluation of multivariate linear regression and artificial neural networks in prediction of water quality parameters.

    PubMed

    Zare Abyaneh, Hamid

    2014-01-01

    This paper examined the efficiency of multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in prediction of two major water quality parameters in a wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) as well as indirect indicators of organic matters are representative parameters for sewer water quality. Performance of the ANN models was evaluated using coefficient of correlation (r), root mean square error (RMSE) and bias values. The computed values of BOD and COD by model, ANN method and regression analysis were in close agreement with their respective measured values. Results showed that the ANN performance model was better than the MLR model. Comparative indices of the optimized ANN with input values of temperature (T), pH, total suspended solid (TSS) and total suspended (TS) for prediction of BOD was RMSE?=?25.1 mg/L, r?=?0.83 and for prediction of COD was RMSE?=?49.4 mg/L, r?=?0.81. It was found that the ANN model could be employed successfully in estimating the BOD and COD in the inlet of wastewater biochemical treatment plants. Moreover, sensitive examination results showed that pH parameter have more effect on BOD and COD predicting to another parameters. Also, both implemented models have predicted BOD better than COD. PMID:24456676

  10. RCWIM - an improved global water isotope pattern prediction model using fuzzy climatic clustering regionalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terzer, Stefan; Araguás-Araguás, Luis; Wassenaar, Leonard I.; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2013-04-01

    Prediction of geospatial H and O isotopic patterns in precipitation has become increasingly important to diverse disciplines beyond hydrology, such as climatology, ecology, food authenticity, and criminal forensics, because these two isotopes of rainwater often control the terrestrial isotopic spatial patterns that facilitate the linkage of products (food, wildlife, water) to origin or movement (food, criminalistics). Currently, spatial water isotopic pattern prediction relies on combined regression and interpolation techniques to create gridded datasets by using data obtained from the Global Network of Isotopes In Precipitation (GNIP). However, current models suffer from two shortcomings: (a) models may have limited covariates and/or parameterization fitted to a global domain, which results in poor predictive outcomes at regional scales, or (b) the spatial domain is intentionally restricted to regional settings, and thereby of little use in providing information at global geospatial scales. Here we present a new global climatically regionalized isotope prediction model which overcomes these limitations through the use of fuzzy clustering of climatic data subsets, allowing us to better identify and customize appropriate covariates and their multiple regression coefficients instead of aiming for a one-size-fits-all global fit (RCWIM - Regionalized Climate Cluster Water Isotope Model). The new model significantly reduces the point-based regression residuals and results in much lower overall isotopic prediction uncertainty, since residuals are interpolated onto the regression surface. The new precipitation ?2H and ?18O isoscape model is available on a global scale at 10 arc-minutes spatial and at monthly, seasonal and annual temporal resolution, and will provide improved predicted stable isotope values used for a growing number of applications. The model further provides a flexible framework for future improvements using regional climatic clustering.

  11. Thermodynamic properties of methane/water interface predicted by molecular dynamics simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakamaki, Ryuji; Sum, Amadeu K.; Narumi, Tetsu; Ohmura, Ryo; Yasuoka, Kenji

    2011-04-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to examine the thermodynamic properties of methane/water interface using two different water models, the TIP4P/2005 and SPC/E, and two sets of combining rules. The density profiles, interfacial tensions, surface excesses, surface pressures, and coexisting densities are calculated over a wide range of pressure conditions. The TIP4P/2005 water model was used, with an optimized combining rule between water and methane fit to the solubility, to provide good predictions of interfacial properties. The use of the infinite dilution approximation to calculate the surface excesses from the interfacial tensions is examined comparing the surface pressures obtained by different approaches. It is shown that both the change of methane solubilities in pressure and position of maximum methane density profile at the interface are independent of pressure up to about 2 MPa. We have also calculated the adsorption enthalpies and entropies to describe the temperature dependency of the adsorption.

  12. Thermodynamic properties of methane/water interface predicted by molecular dynamics simulations.

    PubMed

    Sakamaki, Ryuji; Sum, Amadeu K; Narumi, Tetsu; Ohmura, Ryo; Yasuoka, Kenji

    2011-04-14

    Molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to examine the thermodynamic properties of methane/water interface using two different water models, the TIP4P/2005 and SPC/E, and two sets of combining rules. The density profiles, interfacial tensions, surface excesses, surface pressures, and coexisting densities are calculated over a wide range of pressure conditions. The TIP4P/2005 water model was used, with an optimized combining rule between water and methane fit to the solubility, to provide good predictions of interfacial properties. The use of the infinite dilution approximation to calculate the surface excesses from the interfacial tensions is examined comparing the surface pressures obtained by different approaches. It is shown that both the change of methane solubilities in pressure and position of maximum methane density profile at the interface are independent of pressure up to about 2 MPa. We have also calculated the adsorption enthalpies and entropies to describe the temperature dependency of the adsorption. PMID:21495767

  13. Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sexstone, Matthew G.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level. ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed. Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided. This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime, few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

  14. Aircraft Structural Mass Property Prediction Using Conceptual-Level Structural Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sexstone, Matthew G.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology that extends the use of the Equivalent LAminated Plate Solution (ELAPS) structural analysis code from conceptual-level aircraft structural analysis to conceptual-level aircraft mass property analysis. Mass property analysis in aircraft structures has historically depended upon parametric weight equations at the conceptual design level and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) at the detailed design level ELAPS allows for the modeling of detailed geometry, metallic and composite materials, and non-structural mass coupled with analytical structural sizing to produce high-fidelity mass property analyses representing fully configured vehicles early in the design process. This capability is especially valuable for unusual configuration and advanced concept development where existing parametric weight equations are inapplicable and FEA is too time consuming for conceptual design. This paper contrasts the use of ELAPS relative to empirical weight equations and FEA. ELAPS modeling techniques are described and the ELAPS-based mass property analysis process is detailed Examples of mass property stochastic calculations produced during a recent systems study are provided This study involved the analysis of three remotely piloted aircraft required to carry scientific payloads to very high altitudes at subsonic speeds. Due to the extreme nature of this high-altitude flight regime,few existing vehicle designs are available for use in performance and weight prediction. ELAPS was employed within a concurrent engineering analysis process that simultaneously produces aerodynamic, structural, and static aeroelastic results for input to aircraft performance analyses. The ELAPS models produced for each concept were also used to provide stochastic analyses of wing structural mass properties. The results of this effort indicate that ELAPS is an efficient means to conduct multidisciplinary trade studies at the conceptual design level.

  15. Relation of water level and fish availability to wood stork reproduction in the southern Everglades, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kushlan, James A.; Ogden, John C.; Higer, Aaron L.

    1975-01-01

    The wood stork is a species of colonial wading bird in the Everglades that is most sensitive to changes in the availability of food. Previous studies have shown that the initiation and success of wood stork nesting depends on high densities of fish concentrated in ponds and other catchment basins during the dry season. The extreme dependence of the wood stork on the cyclic hydrologic regime of the southern Florida wetlands makes it an indicator of the well-being and ecological stability of the Everglades. The wood stork has declined in numbers over the last 25 years. One reason for the decline in wood stork population was the change in the hydrologic regimen of the Everglades which affected the feeding habitat and the food production. The fish on which the wood stork feeds increase in density during the dry season as water levels fall. In the Everglades marsh, densities were highest in front of the drying edge of surface water at a depth of about 0.3 m. Dry-season densities were greatest when a drought occurred the previous year. Historically wood stork nesting success was associated with high summer water levels, high rates of surface-water discharge and high rates of drying. Before the closure of the south side of Conservation Area 3 in 1962, years of successful and unsuccessful nesting were characterized by different patterns of drying. These patterns changed after 1962 and generally the predictability of successful nesting breaks down thereafter. Only two nesting years after 1962 were successful and in only one of these was the drying rate similar to years of successful nesting before 1962. Two other potentially successful years failed after 1962. This suggests that further changes in the hydrobiological relations occurred within the Everglades after 1962. Lack of successful nesting after 1962 can be attributed in large part to late colony formation and the interruption of nesting by winter rainfall. In this period (1962-72), colonies formed earlier in years of high early drying rates than in years of low early drying rates. Delay of colony formation is ultimately the result of inability to attain a suitable nutritional state since food supply is the primary factor in the initiation of nesting. Many of the complex food associations of the wood stork remain to be explained.

  16. Map of the Carpinteria area and vicinity, Santa Barbara County, California, showing water-level contours for March 1983, and net change in water level between March 1982 and March 1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moyle, W.R., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    A water-level contour map of the Carpinteria area, California, was constructed using 34 water-level measurements made by the Carpinteria County Water District in March 1983. Also shown on the map are five hydrographs that show water-level fluctuations in each well between 1978 and 1983. In addition, a water-level net-change map for March 1982 to March 1983 is shown. (USGS)

  17. Consumption of drinking water with high nitrate levels causes hypertrophy of the thyroid.

    PubMed

    van Maanen, J M; van Dijk, A; Mulder, K; de Baets, M H; Menheere, P C; van der Heide, D; Mertens, P L; Kleinjans, J C

    1994-06-01

    We studied the effect of nitrate contamination of drinking water on volume and function of the thyroid in human populations exposed to different nitrate levels in their drinking water. Two sets of low and medium (tap) water, respectively medium and high (well) water nitrate exposure groups were compared. Drinking of nitrate-contaminated water was dose-dependently related with 24-h urinary nitrate excretion and salivary nitrate levels. No iodine deficiency was observed in any of the nitrate exposure groups. A dose-dependent difference in the volume of the thyroid was observed between low and medium vs. high nitrate exposure groups, showing development of hypertrophy at nitrate levels exceeding 50 mg/l. An inverse relationship was established between the volume of the thyroid and serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) levels. PMID:8202954

  18. A Compendium of Caenorhabditis elegans RNA Binding Proteins Predicts Extensive Regulation at Multiple Levels

    PubMed Central

    Tamburino, Alex M.; Ryder, Sean P.; Walhout, Albertha J. M.

    2013-01-01

    Gene expression is regulated at multiple levels, including transcription and translation, as well as mRNA and protein stability. Although systems-level functions of transcription factors and microRNAs are rapidly being characterized, few studies have focused on the posttranscriptional gene regulation by RNA binding proteins (RBPs). RBPs are important to many aspects of gene regulation. Thus, it is essential to know which genes encode RBPs, which RBPs regulate which gene(s), and how RBP genes are themselves regulated. Here we provide a comprehensive compendium of RBPs from the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans (wRBP1.0). We predict that as many as 887 (4.4%) of C. elegans genes may encode RBPs ~250 of which likely function in a gene-specific manner. In addition, we find that RBPs, and most notably gene-specific RBPs, are themselves enriched for binding and modification by regulatory proteins, indicating the potential for extensive regulation of RBPs at many different levels. wRBP1.0 will provide a significant contribution toward the comprehensive delineation of posttranscriptional regulatory networks and will provide a resource for further studies regulation by RBPs. PMID:23390605

  19. Description and effects of 1988 drought on ground-water levels, streamflow, and reservoir levels in Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, K.K.

    1992-01-01

    Documentation of the 1988 drought in Indiana was undertaken to aid water-management agencies and planners concerned with periods of below-normal precipitation and their effect on commercial, agricultural, and residential water use. Precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Indices, and ground- and surface-water levels from water years 1988 and 1989 were compared to the historical record to evaluate severity, extent, and duration of the 1988 drought in Indiana. Three types of drought-climatological, hydrologic, and agricultural--occurred in most of Indiana during water years 1988 and 1989. The drought began toward the end of calendar year 1987 as annual precipitation decreased to 4.6 inches below the long term mean. By the end of September 1988, statewide precipitation deficits had increased to almost 8 inches below normal. High temperatures during the summer months increased the stress on crops, livestock, and people. Northwest Indiana experienced the second warmest June-August on record. Palmer Drought Severity Indices indicated that a moderate-to-severe drought had occurred in Indiana during most of 1988. Ground-water levels were affected substantially in many areas of the State. Record low-water levels were observed at 12 of the 20 monitoring wells included in this report. A go-day ground-water emergency was declared in parts of northwestern Indiana. Streamflow throughout the State was affected to varying degrees by the drought. Annual mean discharge in some rivers was only slightly less than the mean annual discharge, while others flowed at less than half that value. The effects of low streamflows were felt by many as electric power plants reduced or ceased production and public-water utilities requested conservation measures by their customers. Major reservoirs in the State approached or reached record low levels, causing water supplies as well as recreational activities to be diminished. Most major crops produced in Indiana were affected by the dry conditions. Average yields in 1988 ranged from 50 to 86 percent of 1987 yields.

  20. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for crop water footprint accounting at a basin level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuo, L.; Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Water footprint has been recognized as a comprehensive indicator in water management to evaluate the human pressure on water resources from either production or consumption perspectives. The agricultural sector in particular crop production takes the largest share of the global water footprint. Water footprint of producing unit mass of a crop (m3/ ton) is normally expressed by single volumetric numbers referring to an average value for certain areas and periods. However, the divergence in crop water footprint accounts from different studies, primarily due to the input data quality, may confuse water users and managers. The study investigates the output sensitivity and uncertainty of the green (rainfall) and blue (irrigation water) crop water footprint to key input variables (reference evapotranspiration (ETo), precipitation (PR), crop coefficient (Kc) and crop calendar (D)) at a basin level. A grid-based daily water balance model was applied to compute water footprints of four major crops - maize, rice, soybean and wheat - in the Yellow River basin for 1996-2005 at a 5 by 5 arc minute resolution. Sensitivities of the yearly crop water footprints to individual input variability were assessed by the one-at-a-time (';sensitivity curve') method. Uncertainty in crop water footprint to input uncertainties were quantified through Monte Carlo simulations for selected years 1996 (wet), 2000 (dry) and 2005 (average). Results show that the crop water footprint is most sensitive to ETo and Kc, followed by D and PR. Blue water footprints were more sensitive than green water footprints to input variability. Interestingly, the smaller the annual blue water footprint, the higher its sensitivity to PR, ETo and Kc variability. The uncertainties in total crop water footprints to combined uncertainties in four key input variables was less than × 30% for total water footprints at 95% confidence level. The sensitivity and uncertainty level of crop water footprints also differs with crop types. In the current study, soybean had the highest sensitivity and the largest uncertainty in water footprints. The study provides the first detailed estimate of the output sensitivity and uncertainty in crop water footprint accounting to input variability and uncertainties. Providing the uncertainty ranges in combination with the estimated crop water footprint can undoubtedly increase the output reliability and adaptability in water management.

  1. Comparison of measured and predicted pure tone propagation levels from JAPE-1: An evaluation of the performance of ASOPRAT

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frederickson, Carl K.; Bass, Henry E.; Raspet, Richard; Messer, John

    1993-01-01

    Joint Acoustic Propagation Experiment Phase One (JAPE-1 ) short range propagation data has been used to evaluate the performance of the Advanced Sound Propagation in the Atmosphere (ASOPRAT) prediction code. The pure tone short range data was Fourier analyzed giving the propagated pressure levels as a function of frequency. Meteorological profiles measured at the experimental site were used as input for the acoustic prediction routine ASOPRAT. Predicted and measured propagation levels are compared in decibels (dB) relative to one of the measurement positions for receivers on the line passing between the two thirty meter towers. Agreement between predicted and measured levels is very good. Source strength data was not available, hence the comparisons show good agreement as to the shape of the propagation loss curve not necessarily the propagation levels.

  2. Artificial regulation of water level and its effect on aquatic macrophyte distribution in Taihu Lake.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dehua; Jiang, Hao; Cai, Ying; An, Shuqing

    2012-01-01

    Management of water levels for flood control, water quality, and water safety purposes has become a priority for many lakes worldwide. However, the effects of water level management on the distribution and composition of aquatic vegetation has received little attention. Relevant studies have used either limited short-term or discrete long-term data and thus are either narrowly applicable or easily confounded by the effects of other environmental factors. We developed classification tree models using ground surveys combined with 52 remotely sensed images (15-30 m resolution) to map the distributions of two groups of aquatic vegetation in Taihu Lake, China from 1989-2010. Type 1 vegetation included emergent, floating, and floating-leaf plants, whereas Type 2 consisted of submerged vegetation. We sought to identify both inter- and intra-annual dynamics of water level and corresponding dynamics in the aquatic vegetation. Water levels in the ten-year period from 2000-2010 were 0.06-0.21 m lower from July to September (wet season) and 0.22-0.27 m higher from December to March (dry season) than in the 1989-1999 period. Average intra-annual variation (CV(a)) decreased from 10.21% in 1989-1999 to 5.41% in 2000-2010. The areas of both Type 1 and Type 2 vegetation increased substantially in 2000-2010 relative to 1989-1999. Neither annual average water level nor CV(a) influenced aquatic vegetation area, but water level from January to March had significant positive and negative correlations, respectively, with areas of Type 1 and Type 2 vegetation. Our findings revealed problems with the current management of water levels in Taihu Lake. To restore Taihu Lake to its original state of submerged vegetation dominance, water levels in the dry season should be lowered to better approximate natural conditions and reinstate the high variability (i.e., greater extremes) that was present historically. PMID:23028639

  3. Hydrologic record extension of water-level data in the Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), 1991-99

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conrads, Paul A.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Telis, Pamela A.

    2015-01-01

    To hindcast and fill data records, 214 empirical models were developed—189 are linear regression models and 25 are artificial neural network models. The coefficient of determination (R2) for 163 of the models is greater than 0.80 and the median percent model error (root mean square error divided by the range of the measured data) is 5 percent. To evaluate the performance of the hindcast models as a group, contour maps of modeled water-level surfaces at 2-centimeter (cm) intervals were generated using the hindcasted data. The 2-cm contour maps were examined for selected days to verify that water surfaces from the EDEN model are consistent with the input data. The biweekly 2-cm contour maps did show a higher number of issues during days in 1990 as compared to days after 1990. May 1990 had the lowest water levels in the Everglades of the 21-year dataset used for the hindcasting study. To hindcast these record low conditions in 1990, many of the hindcast models would require large extrapolations beyond the range of the predictive quality of the models. For these reasons, it was decided to limit the hindcasted data to the period January 1, 1991, to December 31, 1999. Overall, the hindcasted and gap-filled data are assumed to provide reasonable estimates of station-specific water-level data for an extended historical period to inform research and natural resource management in the Everglades.

  4. Links between type E botulism outbreaks, lake levels, and surface water temperatures in Lake Michigan, 1963-2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafrancois, Brenda Moraska; Riley, Stephen C.; Blehert, David S.; Ballmann, Anne E.

    2011-01-01

    Relationships between large-scale environmental factors and the incidence of type E avian botulism outbreaks in Lake Michigan were examined from 1963 to 2008. Avian botulism outbreaks most frequently occurred in years with low mean annual water levels, and lake levels were significantly lower in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Mean surface water temperatures in northern Lake Michigan during the period when type E outbreaks tend to occur (July through September) were significantly higher in outbreak years than in non-outbreak years. Trends in fish populations did not strongly correlate with botulism outbreaks, although botulism outbreaks in the 1960s coincided with high alewife abundance, and recent botulism outbreaks coincided with rapidly increasing round goby abundance. Botulism outbreaks occurred cyclically, and the frequency of outbreaks did not increase over the period of record. Climate change scenarios for the Great Lakes predict lower water levels and warmer water temperatures. As a consequence, the frequency and magnitude of type E botulism outbreaks in the Great Lakes may increase.

  5. Initialization of soil-water content in regional-scale atmospheric prediction models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Christopher B.; Lakhtakia, Mercedes; Capehart, William J.; Carlson, Toby N.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of determining the soil-water content fields required as initial conditions for land surface components within atmospheric prediction models. This is done using a model of the hydrologic balance and conventional meteorological observations, land cover, and soils information. A discussion is presented of the subgrid-scale effects, the integration time, and the choice of vegetation type on the soil-water content patterns. Finally, comparisons are made between two The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model simulations, one using climatological fields and the other one using the soil-moisture fields produced by this new method.

  6. DATA QUALIFICATION REPORT: WATER-LEVEL DATA FROM THE NYE COUNTY EARLY WARNING DRILLING PROGRAM

    SciTech Connect

    F. H. Dove, P. Sanchez, and L. Saraka

    2000-04-21

    The objective of this work is to evaluate unqualified, water-level data gathered under the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) and to determine whether the status of the data should be changed to ''qualified'' data in accordance with AP-SIII.2Q (Qualification of Unqualified Data and the Documentation of Rationale for Accepted Data). The corroboration method (as defined in Attachment 2 of AP-SIII.2Q) was implemented to qualify water-level data from Nye County measurements obtained directly from the Nye County Nuclear Waste Repository Program Office (NWRPO). Comparison of United States Geological Survey (USGS) measurements contained in DTN GS990608312312.003 with the Nye County water-level data has shown that the differences in water-level altitudes for the same wells are significantly less than 1 meter. This is an acceptable finding. Evaluation and recommendation criteria have been strictly applied to qualify Nye County measurements of water levels in selected wells measured by the USGS. However, the process of qualifying measured results by corroboration also builds confidence that the Nye County method for measurement of water levels is adequate for the intended use of the data (which is regional modeling). Therefore, it is reasonable to extend the term of ''qualified'' to water-level measurements in the remaining Nye County Phase I wells on the basis that the method has been shown to produce adequate results for the intended purpose of supporting large-scale modeling activities for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The Data Qualification Team recommends the Nye County, water-level data contained in Appendix D of this report be designated as ''qualified''. These data document manual measurements of water-levels in eight (8) EWDP Phase I drillholes that were obtained prior to the field installation of continuous monitoring equipment.

  7. A Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Approach to Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollutants at the Global Level1

    E-print Network

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    for Water Pollutants at the Global Level1 C.-Y. Cynthia Lin,2 Krishna P. Paudel, Mahesh Pandit for Water Pollutants at the Global Level Abstract We examine the relationship between income and water pollutants using country- level global water quality data over the period 1980 to 2012. We include civil

  8. A Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Approach to Estimating the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollutants at the Global Level

    E-print Network

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    for Water Pollutants at the Global Level Krishna P. Paudel1 , C.-Y. Cynthia Lin2 , Mahesh Pandit the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollutants at the Global Level Abstract We examine the relationship between income and water pollutants using country- level global water quality data over the period 1980

  9. Computational Approaches to Analyze and Predict Small Molecule Transport and Distribution at Cellular and Subcellular Levels

    PubMed Central

    Ah Min, Kyoung; Zhang, Xinyuan; Yu, Jing-yu; Rosania, Gus R.

    2013-01-01

    Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) studies and mechanistic mathematical modeling approaches have been independently employed for analyzing and predicting the transport and distribution of small molecule chemical agents in living organisms. Both of these computational approaches have been useful to interpret experiments measuring the transport properties of small molecule chemical agents, in vitro and in vivo. Nevertheless, mechanistic cell-based pharmacokinetic models have been especially useful to guide the design of experiments probing the molecular pathways underlying small molecule transport phenomena. Unlike QSAR models, mechanistic models can be integrated from microscopic to macroscopic levels, to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of small molecule chemical agents from intracellular organelles to whole organs, well beyond the experiments and training data sets upon which the models are based. Based on differential equations, mechanistic models can also be integrated with other differential equations-based systems biology models of biochemical networks or signaling pathways. Although the origin and evolution of mathematical modeling approaches aimed at predicting drug transport and distribution has occurred independently from systems biology, we propose that the incorporation of mechanistic cell-based computational models of drug transport and distribution into a systems biology modeling framework is a logical next-step for the advancement of systems pharmacology research. PMID:24218242

  10. Spontaneous Evolution in Bilirubin Levels Predicts Liver-Related Mortality in Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Minjong; Kim, Won; Choi, Yunhee; Kim, Sunhee; Kim, Donghee; Yu, Su Jong; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Kim, Hwi Young; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Lee, Hyo-Suk

    2014-01-01

    The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort) and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort). The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL) were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC). For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001). In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment. PMID:25013906

  11. FBG Sensor for Contact Level Monitoring and Prediction of Perforation in Cardiac Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Siu Chun Michael; Razavi, Mehdi; Nazeri, Alireza; Song, Gangbing

    2012-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of arrhythmia, and is characterized by a disordered contractile activity of the atria (top chambers of the heart). A popular treatment for AF is radiofrequency (RF) ablation. In about 2.4% of cardiac RF ablation procedures, the catheter is accidently pushed through the heart wall due to the application of excessive force. Despite the various capabilities of currently available technology, there has yet to be any data establishing how cardiac perforation can be reliably predicted. Thus, two new FBG based sensor prototypes were developed to monitor contact levels and predict perforation. Two live sheep were utilized during the study. It was observed during operation that peaks appeared in rhythm with the heart rate whenever firm contact was made between the sensor and the endocardial wall. The magnitude of these peaks varied with pressure applied by the operator. Lastly, transmural perforation of the left atrial wall was characterized by a visible loading phase and a rapid signal drop-off correlating to perforation. A possible pre-perforation signal was observed for the epoxy-based sensor in the form of a slight signal reversal (12–26% of loading phase magnitude) prior to perforation (occurring over 8 s). PMID:22368507

  12. Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird

    PubMed Central

    Ouyang, Jenny Q.; Sharp, Peter J.; Dawson, Alistair; Quetting, Michael; Hau, Michaela

    2011-01-01

    Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection. PMID:21247953

  13. Prediction of the effects of size and morphology on the structure of water around hematite nanoparticles

    SciTech Connect

    Spagnoli, D.; Gilbert, B.; Waychunas, G.A.; Banfield, J. F.

    2009-05-15

    Compared with macroscopic surfaces, the structure of water around nanoparticles is difficult to probe directly. We used molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the effects of particle size and morphology on the time-averaged structure and the dynamics of water molecules around two sizes of hematite ({alpha}-Fe{sub 2}O{sub 3}) nanoparticles. Interrogation of the simulations via atomic density maps, radial distribution functions and bound water residence times provide insight into the relationships between particle size and morphology and the behavior of interfacial water. Both 1.6 and 2.7 nm particles are predicted to cause the formation of ordered water regions close to the nanoparticle surface, but the extent of localization and ordering, the connectivity between regions of bound water, and the rates of molecular exchange between inner and outer regions are all affected by particle size and morphology. These findings are anticipated to be relevant to understanding the rates of interfacial processes involving water exchange and the transport of aqueous ions to surface sites.

  14. Satellite Mapping of Agricultural Water Requirements in California with the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, F. S.; Lund, C.; Johnson, L.; Michaelis, A.; Pierce, L.; Guzman, A.; Hiatt, S.; Purdy, A. J.; Rosevelt, C.; Brandt, W. T.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite mapping of evapotranspiration (ET) from irrigated agricultural lands can provide water managers and agricultural producers with information that can be used to optimize agricultural water use, especially in regions with limited water supplies. In particular, the timely delivery of information on agricultural crop water requirements has the potential to make irrigation scheduling more practical, convenient, and accurate. We present findings from the development and deployment of a prototype system for irrigation scheduling and management support in California. The system utilizes the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System to integrate satellite observations and meteorological observations to map crop canopy development, basal crop coefficients (Kcb), and evapotranspiration (ETcb) values for multiple crop types in the Central Valley of California at the scale of individual fields. Information is distributed to agricultural producers and water managers via a web-based irrigation management decision support system and web services. We present the prototype system, including comparisons of estimates of ETcb from the prototype system against estimates of ET from other methods, including surface renewal stations and observations from wireless sensor networks deployed in operational agricultural fields across California. We discuss the potential for integration of ET from energy balance models to support near real-time mapping of consumptive water use and crop water stress.

  15. Groundwater Age in Multi-Level Water Quality Monitor Wells on California Central Valley Dairies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esser, B. K.; Visser, A.; Hillegonds, D. J.; Singleton, M. J.; Moran, J. E.; Harter, T.

    2011-12-01

    Dairy farming in California's Central Valley is a significant source of nitrate to underlying aquifers. One approach to mitigation is to implement farm-scale management plans that reduce nutrient loading to groundwater while sustaining crop yield. While the effect of different management practices on crop yield is easily measured, their effect on groundwater quality has only infrequently been evaluated. Documenting and predicting the impact of management on water quality requires a quantitative assessment of transport (including timescale and mixing) through the vadose and saturated zones. In this study, we measured tritium, helium isotopic composition, and noble gas concentrations in groundwater drawn from monitor wells on several dairies in the Lower San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Lake Basin of California's Central Valley in order to predict the timescales on which changes in management may produce observable changes in groundwater quality. These dairies differ in age (from <10 to >100 years old), thickness of the vadose zone (from <10 to 60 m), hydrogeologic setting, and primary source of irrigation water (surface or groundwater). All of the dairies use manure wastewater for irrigation and fertilization. Three of the dairies have implemented management changes designed to reduce nutrient loading and/or water usage. Monitor wells in the southern Tulare Lake Basin dairies were installed by UC-Davis as multi-level nested wells allowing depth profiling of tritium and noble gases at these sites. Tritium/helium-3 groundwater ages, calculated using a simple piston-flow model, range from <2 to >50 years. Initial tritium (the sum of measured tritium and tritiogenic helium-3) is close to or slightly above precipitation in the calculated recharge year for young samples; and significantly above the precipitation curve for older samples. This pattern is consistent with the use of 20-30 year old groundwater recharged before 1980 for irrigation, and illustrates how irrigation with groundwater can complicate the use of tritium alone for age dating. The presence of radiogenic helium-4 in several samples with measurable tritium provides evidence of mixing between pre-modern and younger groundwater. Groundwater age-depth relationships are complicated, consistent with transient flow patterns in shallow agricultural groundwaters affected by irrigation pumping and recharge. For the multi-level installations in the southern dairies, both depth profiles and re-sampling after significant changes in groundwater elevation emphasize the need to sample groundwater within 3 meters of the water table to obtain "first-encounter" groundwater with a tritium/helium-3 age of less than 5 years, and to use age tracers to identify wells and groundwater conditions suitable for monitoring and assessment of best management practice impacts on underlying groundwater quality. This work was carried out with funding from Sustainable Conservation and the California State Water Resources Control Board in collaboration with UC-Davis, and was performed under the auspices of the U.S. DOE by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  16. Investigation of a Flow Coefficient for Predicting a Natural Circulation of Water in a Built-in-storage Solar Water Heater

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Pachern Jans; Supachart Chungpaibulpatana; Bundit Limmeechokchai

    This paper describes an investigation of an overall flow coefficient Kf for predicting thermosyphon flow rate of water circulating in a built-in-storage (BIS) solar water heater. Firstly, a set of mathematical equations for solving storage tank temperatures of the BIS solar water heater has been developed based on the energy balances on three main components: absorber plate, collector channel and

  17. Stability of low levels of perchlorate in drinking water and natural water samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stetson, S.J.; Wanty, R.B.; Helsel, D.R.; Kalkhoff, S.J.; Macalady, D.L.

    2006-01-01

    Perchlorate ion (ClO4-) is an environmental contaminant of growing concern due to its potential human health effects, impact on aquatic and land animals, and widespread occurrence throughout the United States. The determination of perchlorate cannot normally be carried out in the field. As such, water samples for perchlorate analysis are often shipped to a central laboratory, where they may be stored for a significant period before analysis. The stability of perchlorate ion in various types of commonly encountered water samples has not been generally examined-the effect of such storage is thus not known. In the present study, the long-term stability of perchlorate ion in deionized water, tap water, ground water, and surface water was examined. Sample sets containing approximately 1000, 100, 1.0, and 0.5 ??g l-1 perchlorate ion in deionized water and also in local tap water were formulated. These samples were analyzed by ion chromatography for perchlorate ion concentration against freshly prepared standards every 24 h for the first 7 days, biweekly for the next 4 weeks, and periodically after that for a total of 400 or 610 days for the two lowest concentrations and a total of 428 or 638 days for the high concentrations. Ground and surface water samples containing perchlorate were collected, held and analyzed for perchlorate concentration periodically over at least 360 days. All samples except for the surface water samples were found to be stable for the duration of the study, allowing for holding times of at least 300 days for ground water samples and at least 90 days for surface water samples. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Prediction of china's submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuo, Juncheng; Yang, Yiqiu; Zhang, Jianli; Chen, Meixiang; Xu, Qing

    2013-09-01

    Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period. The total flooding areas are 98.3×103 and 104.9×103 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0×103, 64.1×103 and 15.3×103 km2 in 2050 and 5.2×103, 67.8×103 and 17.2×103 km2 in 2080, respectively.

  19. Residue-Level Prediction of DNA-Binding Sites and its Application on DNA-Binding Protein Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Bhardwaj, Nitin; Lu, Hui

    2007-01-01

    Protein-DNA interactions are crucial to many cellular activities such as expression-control and DNA-repair. These interactions between amino acids and nucleotides are highly specific and any aberrance at the binding site can render the interaction completely incompetent. In this study, we have three aims focusing on DNA-binding residues on the protein surface: develop an automated approach for fast and reliable recognition of DNA-binding sites; improving the prediction by distance-dependent refinement and use these predictions to identify DNA-binding proteins. We use a support vector machines (SVM)-based approach to harness the features of the DNA-binding residues to distinguish them from non-binding residues. Features used for distinction include the residue’s identity, charge, solvent accessibility, average potential, the secondary structure it is embedded in, neighboring residues, and location in a cationic patch. These features collected from 50 proteins are used to train SVM. Testing is then performed on another set of 37 proteins, much larger than any testing set used in previous studies. The testing set has no more than 20% sequence identity not only among its pairs, but also with the proteins in the training set, thus removing any undesired redundancy due to homology. This set also has proteins with an unseen DNA-binding structural class not present in the training set. With the above features, an accuracy of 66% with balanced sensitivity and specificity is achieved without relying on homology or evolutionary information. We then develop a postprocessing scheme to improve the prediction using the relative location of the predicted residues. A balanced success is then achieved with average sensitivity, specificity and accuracy pegged at 71.3%, 69.3% and 70.5%, respectively. Average net prediction is also around 70%. Finally, we show that the number of predicted DNA-binding residues can be used to differentiate DNA-binding proteins from non-DNA-binding proteins with an accuracy of 78%. Results presented here demonstrate that machine-learning can be applied to automated identification of DNA-binding residues and that the success rate can be ameliorated as more features are added. Such functional site prediction protocols can be useful in guiding consequent works such as site-directed mutagenesis and macromolecular docking. PMID:17316627

  20. Assessing the Impacts of Nutrient Load Uncertainties on Predicted Truckee River Water Quality

    Microsoft Academic Search

    J. A. Bartlett; J. J. Warwick

    2005-01-01

    This study examines the effects of model boundary condition uncertainty on dissolved oxygen (DO) predictions for the Truckee River, Nevada, using an augmented version of the USEPA's Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program, Version 5 (WASP5). DO values are the focal point because observed data indicate that the minimum DO standard of 5 mg\\/L during the low-flow season is sometimes exceeded.