Science.gov

Sample records for water level predictions

  1. Prediction of subsurface water level change from satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saykawlard, Suphan; Honda, Kiyoshi; Das Gupta, Ashim; Eiumnoh, Apisit; Chen, Xiaoyong

    2005-03-01

    This study explores the potential for predicting the spatial variation in subsurface water level change with crop growth stage from satellite data in Thabua Irrigation Project, situated in the northern central region of Thailand. The relationship between subsurface water level change from pumping water to irrigate rice in the dry season and the age of the rice was analysed. The spatial model of subsurface water level change was developed from the classification using greenness or (normalized difference vegetation index NDVI) derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data. The NDVI of 52 rice fields was employed to assess its relationship to the age of the rice. It was found that NDVI and rice age have a good correlation (R2 = 0.73). The low NDVI values (-0.059 to 0.082) in these fields were related to the young rice stage (0-30 days). NDVI and subsurface water level change were also correlated in this study and found to have a high correlation (Water level change (m day-1) = 0.3442 × NDVI - 0.0372; R2 = 0.96). From this model, the water level change caused by rice at different growth stages was derived. This was used to show the spatial variation of water level change in the project during the 1998-99 dry-season cropping. This simple method of using NDVI relationships with water level change and crop growth stages proves to be useful in determining the areas prone to excessive lowering of the subsurface water level during the dry season. This could assist in the appropriate planning of the use of subsurface water resources in dry-season cropping.

  2. Analytical approach for predicting fresh water discharge in an estuary based on tidal water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, H.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Jiang, C.

    2014-06-01

    As the tidal wave propagates into an estuary, the tidally averaged water level tends to rise in landward direction due to the density difference between saline and fresh water and the asymmetry of the friction. The effect of friction on the residual slope is even more remarkable when accounting for fresh water discharge. In this study, we investigate the influence of river discharge on tidal wave propagation in the Yangtze estuary with specific attention to residual water level slope. This is done by using a one-dimensional analytical model for tidal hydrodynamics accounting for the residual water level. We demonstrate the importance of the residual slope on tidal dynamics and use it to improve the prediction of the tidal propagation in estuaries (i.e., tidal damping, velocity amplitude, wave celerity and phase lag), especially when the influence of river discharge is significant. Finally, we develop a new inverse analytical approach for estimating fresh water discharge on the basis of tidal water level observations along the estuary, which can be used as a tool to obtain information on the river discharge that is otherwise difficult to measure in the tidal region.

  3. Analytical approach for predicting fresh water discharge in an estuary based on tidal water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, H.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Jiang, C.

    2014-10-01

    As the tidal wave propagates into an estuary, the tidally averaged water level tends to rise in landward direction due to the density difference between saline and fresh water and the asymmetry of the friction. The effect of friction on the residual slope is even more remarkable when accounting for fresh water discharge. In this study, we investigate the influence of river discharge on tidal wave propagation in the Yangtze estuary with specific attention to residual water level slope. This is done by using a one-dimensional analytical model for tidal hydrodynamics accounting for the residual water level. We demonstrate the importance of the residual slope on tidal dynamics and use it to improve the prediction of the tidal propagation in estuaries (i.e. tidal damping, velocity amplitude, wave celerity and phase lag), especially when the influence of river discharge is significant. Finally, we develop a new inverse analytical approach for estimating fresh water discharge on the basis of tidal water level observations along the estuary, which can be used as a tool to obtain information on the river discharge that is otherwise difficult to measure in the tidal region.

  4. Flood Water Level Mapping and Prediction Due to Dam Failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musa, S.; Adnan, M. S.; Ahmad, N. A.; Ayob, S.

    2016-07-01

    Sembrong dam has undergone overflow failure. Flooding has been reported to hit the town, covering an area of up to Parit Raja, located in the district of Batu Pahat. This study aims to identify the areas that will be affected by flood in the event of a dam failure in Sembrong Dam, Kluang, Johor at a maximum level. To grasp the extent, the flood inundation maps have been generated by using the InfoWorks ICM and GIS software. By using these maps, information such as the depth and extent of floods can be identified the main ares flooded. The flood map was created starting with the collection of relevant data such as measuring the depth of the river and a maximum flow rate for Sembrong Dam. The data were obtained from the Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia and the Department of Survey and Mapping and HLA Associates Sdn. Bhd. Then, the data were analyzed according to the established Info Works ICM method. The results found that the flooded area were listed at Sri Lalang, Parit Sagil, Parit Sonto, Sri Paya, Parit Raja, Parit Sempadan, Talang Bunut, Asam Bubok, Tanjung Sembrong, Sungai Rambut and Parit Haji Talib. Flood depth obtained for the related area started from 0.5 m up to 1.2 m. As a conclusion, the flood emanating from this study include the area around the town of Ayer Hitam up to Parit Raja approximately of more than 20 km distance. This may give bad implication to residents around these areas. In future studies, other rivers such as Sungai Batu Pahat should be considered for this study to predict and reduce the yearly flood victims for this area.

  5. Predicting Atrazine Levels in Water Utility Intake Water for MCL Compliance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To protect human health, atrazine concentrations in drinking water must not exceed its maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 3 ug/L. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates that municipal water providers sample quarterly to determine MCL compliance. Atrazine levels were mon...

  6. Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

  7. Dynamic neural networks for real-time water level predictions of sewerage systems - covering gauged and ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.-M.; Chang, L.-C.; Tsai, M.-J.; Wang, Y.-F.; Chang, F.-J.

    2010-04-01

    In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows a signal to propagate in backward direction which gives this network a dynamic memory to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

  8. Construction and use of special drawdown scales for use in prediction of water-level changes throughout heavily pumped areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conover, C.S.; Reeder, H.O.

    1957-01-01

    Problem and Proposed Method of Solution Frequently the Theis nonequilibrium formula is use din the quantitative analyses that are part of many-ground-water investigations. The computations associated therewith may become quite involved and tedious, especially when dealing with predictions of the decline of water levels throughout large areas in which there are many discharging wells. The process of predicting future water-level declines can be greatly simplified and shortened by preparing a special draw-down scale for given conditions. Through use of such a scale much of the computation can be reduced to scaling the values sought from a map, on which the pumped wells have been spotted. The net drawdown effect, which is the sum of the water-level declines caused by the many individual pumped wells, can be determined readily for any desired point in the area. If the net drawdown effect is desired, a summation of the effects of all the pumped wells can be repeated for each point. By determining the water-level change at a number of points, for a given period of time, a contour map of predicted water-level changes for the multiple-well system can be drawn.

  9. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes

    PubMed Central

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  10. Dynamic neural networks for real-time water level predictions of sewerage systems-covering gauged and ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Yen-Ming; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Meng-Jung; Wang, Yi-Fung; Chang, Fi-John

    2010-07-01

    In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows signals to propagate in both forward and backward directions, which offers the network dynamic memories. Besides, the information at the current time-step with a feedback operation can yield a time-delay unit that provides internal input information at the next time-step to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

  11. How historical information can improve extreme coastal water levels probability prediction: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2014-11-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativize such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that: (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data till end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data till end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  12. Predicting wetland plant community responses to proposed water-level-regulation plans for Lake Ontario: GIS-based modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilcox, D.A.; Xie, Y.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated, GIS-based, wetland predictive models were constructed to assist in predicting the responses of wetland plant communities to proposed new water-level regulation plans for Lake Ontario. The modeling exercise consisted of four major components: 1) building individual site wetland geometric models; 2) constructing generalized wetland geometric models representing specific types of wetlands (rectangle model for drowned river mouth wetlands, half ring model for open embayment wetlands, half ellipse model for protected embayment wetlands, and ellipse model for barrier beach wetlands); 3) assigning wetland plant profiles to the generalized wetland geometric models that identify associations between past flooding / dewatering events and the regulated water-level changes of a proposed water-level-regulation plan; and 4) predicting relevant proportions of wetland plant communities and the time durations during which they would be affected under proposed regulation plans. Based on this conceptual foundation, the predictive models were constructed using bathymetric and topographic wetland models and technical procedures operating on the platform of ArcGIS. An example of the model processes and outputs for the drowned river mouth wetland model using a test regulation plan illustrates the four components and, when compared against other test regulation plans, provided results that met ecological expectations. The model results were also compared to independent data collected by photointerpretation. Although data collections were not directly comparable, the predicted extent of meadow marsh in years in which photographs were taken was significantly correlated with extent of mapped meadow marsh in all but barrier beach wetlands. The predictive model for wetland plant communities provided valuable input into International Joint Commission deliberations on new regulation plans and was also incorporated into faunal predictive models used for that purpose.

  13. Predicting Aircraft Noise Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1983-01-01

    Computer program developed for predicting aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. Noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust jet flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine and airframe. Program written in FORTRAN IV.

  14. Prediction of Water-level Changes and Water Use in the High Plains Aquifer from Radar Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whittemore, D. O.; Butler, J. J., Jr.; Wilson, B. B.

    2015-12-01

    Meteorological conditions are the primary driver of variations in the annual volume of groundwater pumped for irrigation from the High Plains aquifer (HPA), one of the largest aquifers of the world. Correlations between climatic indices (such as the Standardized Precipitation Index [SPI]) and mean annual water-level changes and water use have been shown to be valuable tools for assessing the aquifer's response to various climatic scenarios in the semi-arid Kansas HPA (Whittemore et al., 2015). The correlations are generally better for a relatively large area (region) of the aquifer (such as that encompassed by a climatic division) because of the number of weather stations from which the climatic indices are computed. Correlations can be poor for county-sized and smaller areas (less than a few to several hundred km2) because of the low density of weather stations. Since 2005, radar precipitation data have been served online by the National Weather Service. The radar data are adjusted based on ground observations and are available at a spatial resolution of ~4x4 km. Correlations between radar precipitation and mean annual water-level changes and water use are comparable to those using SPI for the same region. Correlations using radar precipitation data are generally higher than with SPI computed for smaller areas, such as for counties and areas around individual monitoring wells. The optimum correlations for radar precipitation are determined using sums of different spans of monthly mean precipitation that include the irrigation season for the area of interest. Coefficients of determination, R2, for radar precipitation versus annual water-level change and water use can exceed 0.8 for counties and monitoring well areas in the Kansas HPA. These correlations are being used to assess the impact of drought and water-use management on HPA sustainability. These correlations can also be used to assess the quality of the reported water-use data.

  15. Digital-model analysis to predict water levels in a well field near Columbus, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Planert, Michael

    1976-01-01

    Columbus, Indiana, obtains its water supply from six municipally owned wells southwest of the city. The wells are screened in an outwash sand and gravel aquifer that was deposited by glacial melt water in a preglacial bedrock valley. The well field is midway between the East Fork White River and the western edge of the valley. A digital model was used to determine the effects of two pumping plans on the outwash sand and gravel aquifer. In pumping plan 1, a continuous pumping rate of 1,400 gallons per minute (gpm) for 10 years in each of the city 's six existing wells was simulated with the model. Model results of plan 1 indicate that the water levels in the area of the well field would be lowered more than 20 ft and that drawdowns in the wells would approach 35 ft after 10 years ' pumping. Pumping plan 2 had two stages of pumping. In the first, a continuous pumping rate of 1,400 gpm for 5 years in each of the city 's six existing wells was simulated with the model; the second stage of pumping plan 2 differed from stage 1 only in that five planned wells were added to the six existing wells. Model results of plan 2 indicate that water levels in the area of the well field would be lowered as much as 40 feet. Drawdown at two of the well sites would approach 60 ft, leaving less than 15 ft of the initial 70 ft of saturated thickness at the two wells after 10 years ' pumping. (Woodard-USGS)

  16. Predicted airframe noise levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raney, J. P.

    1980-09-01

    Calculated values of airframe noise levels corresponding to FAA noise certification conditions for six aircraft are presented. The aircraft are: DC-9-30; Boeing 727-200; A300-B2 Airbus; Lockheed L-1011; DC-10-10; and Boeing 747-200B. The prediction methodology employed is described and discussed.

  17. Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López López, P.; Verkade, J. S.; Weerts, A. H.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2014-09-01

    The present study comprises an intercomparison of different configurations of a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty. It builds on earlier work by Weerts, Winsemius and Verkade (2011; hereafter referred to as WWV2011), who used the quantile regression technique to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty using a deterministic water level forecast as a predictor. The various configurations are designed to address two issues with the WWV2011 implementation: (i) quantile crossing, which causes non-strictly rising cumulative predictive distributions, and (ii) the use of linear quantile models to describe joint distributions that may not be strictly linear. Thus, four configurations were built: (i) a ''classical" quantile regression, (ii) a configuration that implements a non-crossing quantile technique, (iii) a configuration where quantile models are built in normal space after application of the normal quantile transformation (NQT) (similar to the implementation used by WWV2011), and (iv) a configuration that builds quantile model separately on separate domains of the predictor. Using each configuration, four reforecasting series of water levels at 14 stations in the upper Severn River were established. The quality of these four series was intercompared using a set of graphical and numerical verification metrics. Intercomparison showed that reliability and sharpness vary across configurations, but in none of the configurations do these two forecast quality aspects improve simultaneously. Further analysis shows that skills in terms of the Brier skill score, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and relative operating characteristic score is very similar across the four configurations.

  18. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida Everglades.

    PubMed

    van der Valk, Arnold G; Volin, John C; Wetzel, Paul R

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades. PMID:25566832

  19. Predicted Changes in Interannual Water-Level Fluctuations Due to Climate Change and Its Implications for the Vegetation of the Florida Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Valk, Arnold G.; Volin, John C.; Wetzel, Paul R.

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.

  20. Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

  1. Improved sea level anomaly prediction through combination of data relationship analysis and genetic programming in Singapore Regional Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurniawan, Alamsyah; Ooi, Seng Keat; Babovic, Vladan

    2014-11-01

    With recent advances in measurement and information technology, there is an abundance of data available for analysis and modelling of hydrodynamic systems. Spatial and temporal data coverage, better quality and reliability of data modelling and data driven techniques have resulted in more favourable acceptance by the hydrodynamic community. The data mining tools and techniques are being applied in variety of hydro-informatics applications ranging from data mining for pattern discovery to data driven models and numerical model error correction. The present study explores the feasibility of applying mutual information theory by evaluating the amount of information contained in observed and prediction errors of non-tidal barotropic numerical modelling (i.e. assuming that the hydrodynamic model, available at this point, is best representation of the physics in the domain of interest) by relating them to variables that reflect the state at which the predictions are made such as input data, state variables and model output. In addition, the present study explores the possibility of employing ‘genetic programming' (GP) as an offline data driven modelling tool to capture the sea level anomaly (SLA) dynamics and then using them for updating the numerical model prediction in real time applications. These results suggest that combination of data relationship analysis and GP models helps to improve the forecasting ability by providing information of significant predicative parameters. It is found that GP based SLA prediction error forecast model can provide significant improvement when applied as data assimilation schemes for updating the SLA prediction obtained from primary hydrodynamic models.

  2. Reasons and Predictions of The Caspian Sea Water Level Fluctuations: Impact of Climate Factors and Man's Activities.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erlich, M.; Shiklomanov, I.; Yezhov, A.; Georgievsky, V.; Shalygin, A.

    The Caspian Sea - the largest lake in the world - has no connection with the Ocean and is lower than its surface. Fluctuations of the Sea level are very significant: during the period of instrumental observations (since 1830) the level amplitude was 3.78 m with maximum of -25.22 m in 1882 and minimum of -29.00 m in 1978. These fluctuations lead to a great damage for the economy of five countries sharing its coast (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan). Deep knowledge of hydrological and hydrodynamic Sea regime and scientifically justified forecasts of possible changes in its level, taking into account variability in climate and future climate change, are re- quired for undertaking urgent measures for protection of coastal territories. The inter- national research project CASSEAS, carried out in 1997-2000 within the framework of the INCO-COPERNICUS programme by the scientists of 5 countries: France, Rus- sia, Germany, Turkmenistan and UK, was devoted to these problems. Research made within the Project made it possible to get new precise data on all water balance com- ponents of the Caspian Sea for 1880-1996; moreover, all water balance components for 1940-1996 were computed independently. It was shown that the Sea level fluctua- tions depended on the water balance almost completely. Assessment of possible future runoff changes in the Caspian Sea basin was made using the mathematical model of runoff formation developed at the SHI. Several scenarios from a range of GCMs and on the basis of paleoclimatic reconstructions were used as the models of the future climate for the nearest 3 decades. Besides changes in climate characteristics, three variants were accepted for the future water use in the basins of rivers discharging to the Caspian Sea. All scenarios gave similar results for changes in annual river inflow to the Caspian Sea: its increase would be from 5% to 10% by 2030. The same scenarios, used to estimate changes in precipitation onto the Sea

  3. Predicted water-level and water-quality effects of artificial recharge in the Upper Coachella Valley, California, using a finite-element digital model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Lindsay A.

    1978-01-01

    From 1936 to 1974, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the Palm Springs area and 60 feet in the Palm Desert area of the upper Coachella Valley, Calif. Water from the Colorado River Aqueduct is presently being recharged to the basin. The dissolved-solids concentration of native ground water in the recharge area is about 210 mg/liter and that of recharge water ranges from 600 to 750 mg/liter. A finite-element model indicates that without recharge the 1974 water levels in the Palm Springs area will decline 200 feet by the year 2000 because of pumpage. If the aquifer is recharged at a rate from about 7 ,500 acre-feet per year in 1973 increasing to 61,200 acre-feet per year in 1990 and thereafter, the water level in the Palm Springs area will decline about 20 feet below the 1974 level by 1991 and recover to the 1974 level by 2000. The solute-transport finite-element model of the recharge area indicates that the artificial recharge plume (bounded by the 300-mg/liter line) will move about 1.1 miles downgradient of the recharge ponds by 1981 and about 4.5 miles from the ponds by 2000. (Woodard-USGS)

  4. How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2015-06-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  5. Sport-Specific Conditioning Variables Predict Offensive and Defensive Performance in High-Level Youth Water Polo Athletes.

    PubMed

    Sekulic, Damir; Kontic, Dean; Esco, Michael R; Zenic, Natasa; Milanovic, Zoran; Zvan, Milan

    2016-05-01

    Specific-conditioning capacities (SCC) are known to be generally important in water polo (WP), yet the independent associations to offensive and defensive performance is unknown. This study aimed to determine whether offense and defense abilities in WP were independently associated with SCC and anthropometrics. The participants were 82 high-level male youth WP players (all 17-19 years of age; body height, 186.3 ± 6.07 cm; body mass, 84.8 ± 9.6 kg). The independent variables were body height and body mass, and 5 sport-specific fitness tests: sprint swimming over 15 meters; 4 × 50-meter anaerobic-endurance test; vertical in-water-jump; maximum intensity isometric force in upright swimming using an eggbeater kick; and test of throwing velocity. The 6 dependent variables comprised parameters of defensive and offensive performance, such as polyvalence, i.e., ability to play on different positions in defensive tasks (PD) and offensive tasks (PO), efficacy in primary playing position in defensive (ED) and offensive (EO) tasks, and agility in defensive (AD) and offensive (AO) tasks. Analyses showed appropriate reliability for independent (intraclass coefficient of 0.82-0.91) and dependent variables (Cronbach alpha of 0.81-0.95). Multiple regressions were significant for ED (R = 0.25; p < 0.01), EO (R = 0.21; p < 0.01), AD (R = 0.40; p < 0.01), and AO (R = 0.35; p < 0.01). Anaerobic-swimming performance was positively related to AD (β = -0.26; p ≤ 0.05), whereas advanced sprint swimming was related to better AO (β = -0.38; p ≤ 0.05). In-water-jumping performance held the significant positive relationship to EO (β = 0.31; p ≤ 0.05), ED (β = 0.33; p ≤ 0.05), and AD (β = 0.37; p ≤ 0.05). Strength and conditioning professionals working in WP should be aware of established importance of SCC in performing unique duties in WP. The SCC should be specifically developed to meet the needs of offensive and defensive performance in young WP athletes. PMID:26439788

  6. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  7. PREDICTION OF AIRCRAFT NOISE LEVELS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1994-01-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources have been incorporated into a computer program for predicting aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground test. The noise sources accounted for include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available in the program for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. The capacity to solve the geometrical relationships between an aircraft in flight and an observer on the ground has been included in the program to make it useful in evaluating noise estimates and footprints for various proposed engine installations. The program contains two main routines for employing the noise prediction routines. The first main routine consists of a procedure to calculate at various observer stations the time history of the noise from an aircraft flying at a specified set of speeds, orientations, and space coordinates. The various components of the noise are computed by the program. For each individual source, the noise levels are free field with no corrections for propagation losses other than spherical divergence. The total spectra may then be corrected for the usual effects of atmospheric attenuation, extra ground attenuation, ground reflection, and aircraft shielding. Next, the corresponding values of overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, and tone-weighted perceived noise level are calculated. From the time history at each point, true effective perceived noise levels are calculated. Thus, values of effective perceived noise levels, maximum perceived noise levels, and tone-weighted perceived noise levels are found for a grid of specified points on the ground. The second main routine is designed to give the usual format of one-third octave sound pressure level values at a fixed radius for a number of user

  8. PREDICTING FUTURE WATER DEMAND

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decentralization within metropolitan areas has been a major aspect of population movement in the United States over the past two decades. The trend has great significance for all urban service activities. In particular, it affects water supply planning in urban areas. Both number...

  9. Radon levels can be predicted

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainger, Lisa A.

    Scientists doing a yearlong study of radon levels in houses have identified several major factors that affect concentrations and have developed a method for predicting indoor radon levels before a house is built. Douglas Mose and George Mushrush (George Mason University, Fairfax, Va.) studied 1500 homes in northern Virginia and central Maryland near Washington, D.C.Radon is a radioactive decay product of uranium that occurs in many rock types. The gas can accumulate in buildings and pose a serious health hazard. Results from the Washington-area study show that ˜35% of the houses had average yearly radon concentrations above 4 pico-Curies per liter (pCi/L), the level at which the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggests that a homeowner should take steps to reduce radon concentrations. At a level of 4-10 pCi/L an estimated 13-120 lung cancer deaths would be expected for every 1000 people exposed. Such a risk is comparable to having 200 chest X rays per year, according to EPA statistics.

  10. How predictable are water resources?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mason, P.

    2010-10-01

    Peter Mason, technical director of international dams and hydropower at MWH, explains how some water resources might be more predictable than generally supposed. Some years ago the writer examined the levels of Lake Victoria in east Africa as part of a major refurbishment project. This revealed a clear cyclic behavior in lake level and hence in discharges from the lake down the Nile system and up into Egypt. A recent study by the writer demonstrated that 20-year mean flows in the Kafue River in Zambia corresponded well to reconstructed rainfall records based on regional tree ring records. The Rio Parana has a catchment area of 3,100,000km 2 and a mean stream flow of 21,300m 3/sec. In the wider context an improved understanding of apparent periodicities in the natural record would seem to offer at least one planning scenario to be considered in terms of investment and even for the long term planning of aid and famine relief.

  11. Arsenic levels in Oregon waters.

    PubMed Central

    Stoner, J C; Whanger, P D; Weswig, P H

    1977-01-01

    The arsenic content of well water in certain areas of Oregon can range up to 30 to 40 times the U.S.P.H.S. Drinking Water Standard of 1962, where concentrations in excess of 50 ppb are grounds for rejection. The elevated arsenic levels in water are postulated to be due to volcanic deposits. Wells in central Lane County, Oregon, that are known to contain arsenic rich water are in an area underlain by a particular group of sedimentary and volcanic rocks, which geologists have named the Fischer formation. The arsenic levels in water from wells ranged from no detectable amounts to 2,000 ppb. In general the deeper wells contained higher arsenic water. The high arsenic waters are characterized by the small amounts of calcium and magnesium in relation to that of sodium, a high content of boron, and a high pH. Water from some hot springs in other areas of Oregon was found to range as high as 900 ppb arsenic. Arsenic blood levels ranged from 32 ppb for people living in areas where water is low in arsenic to 250 ppb for those living in areas where water is known to contain high levels of arsenic. Some health problems associated with consumption of arsenic-rich water are discussed. PMID:908291

  12. Computer program to predict aircraft noise levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources were programmed to predict aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. The noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. Outputs can include spectra, overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, tone-weighted perceived noise level, and effective perceived noise level at locations specified by the user. Footprint contour coordinates and approximate footprint areas can also be calculated. Inputs and outputs can be in either System International or U.S. customary units. The subroutines for each noise source and propagation correction are described. A complete listing is given.

  13. Groundwater Level Prediction using M5 Model Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalarajan, Nitha Ayinippully; Mohandas, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater is an important resource, readily available and having high economic value and social benefit. Recently, it had been considered a dependable source of uncontaminated water. During the past two decades, increased rate of extraction and other greedy human actions have resulted in the groundwater crisis, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Under prevailing circumstances, the availability of predicted groundwater levels increase the importance of this valuable resource, as an aid in the planning of groundwater resources. For this purpose, data-driven prediction models are widely used in the present day world. M5 model tree (MT) is a popular soft computing method emerging as a promising method for numeric prediction, producing understandable models. The present study discusses the groundwater level predictions using MT employing only the historical groundwater levels from a groundwater monitoring well. The results showed that MT can be successively used for forecasting groundwater levels.

  14. Modeling system for predicting enterococci levels at Holly Beach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zaihong; Deng, Zhiqiang; Rusch, Kelly A; Walker, Nan D

    2015-08-01

    This paper presents a new modeling system for nowcasting and forecasting enterococci levels in coastal recreation waters at any time during the day. The modeling system consists of (1) an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the enterococci level at sunrise time, (2) a clear-sky solar radiation and turbidity correction to the ANN model, (3) remote sensing algorithms for turbidity, and (4) nowcasting/forecasting data. The first three components are also unique features of the new modeling system. While the component (1) is useful to beach monitoring programs requiring enterococci levels in early morning, the component (2) in combination with the component (1) makes it possible to predict the bacterial level in beach waters at any time during the day if the data from the components (3) and (4) are available. Therefore, predictions from the component (2) are of primary interest to beachgoers. The modeling system was developed using three years of swimming season data and validated using additional four years of independent data. Testing results showed that (1) the sunrise-time model correctly reproduced 82.63% of the advisories issued in seven years with a false positive rate of 2.65% and a false negative rate of 14.72%, and (2) the new modeling system was capable of predicting the temporal variability in enterococci levels in beach waters, ranging from hourly changes to daily cycles. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the new modeling system in predicting enterococci levels in coastal beach waters. Applications of the modeling system will improve the management of recreational beaches and protection of public health. PMID:26186681

  15. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1975

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ballance, W.C.; Freudenthal, Pamela B.

    1976-01-01

    Ground-water levels are measured periodically in a network of about 260 observation wells in Wyoming to record changes in ground-water storage. The areas of water-level observation are mostly where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. This report contains maps showing location of observation wells and water-level changes from 1975 to 1976. Well history, highest and lowest water levels , and hydrographs for most wells also are included. (Woodard-USGS)

  16. Passive samplers accurately predict PAH levels in resident crayfish.

    PubMed

    Paulik, L Blair; Smith, Brian W; Bergmann, Alan J; Sower, Greg J; Forsberg, Norman D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Anderson, Kim A

    2016-02-15

    Contamination of resident aquatic organisms is a major concern for environmental risk assessors. However, collecting organisms to estimate risk is often prohibitively time and resource-intensive. Passive sampling accurately estimates resident organism contamination, and it saves time and resources. This study used low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive water samplers to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus. Resident crayfish were collected at 5 sites within and outside of the Portland Harbor Superfund Megasite (PHSM) in the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon. LDPE deployment was spatially and temporally paired with crayfish collection. Crayfish visceral and tail tissue, as well as water-deployed LDPE, were extracted and analyzed for 62 PAHs using GC-MS/MS. Freely-dissolved concentrations (Cfree) of PAHs in water were calculated from concentrations in LDPE. Carcinogenic risks were estimated for all crayfish tissues, using benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq). ∑PAH were 5-20 times higher in viscera than in tails, and ∑BaPeq were 6-70 times higher in viscera than in tails. Eating only tail tissue of crayfish would therefore significantly reduce carcinogenic risk compared to also eating viscera. Additionally, PAH levels in crayfish were compared to levels in crayfish collected 10 years earlier. PAH levels in crayfish were higher upriver of the PHSM and unchanged within the PHSM after the 10-year period. Finally, a linear regression model predicted levels of 34 PAHs in crayfish viscera with an associated R-squared value of 0.52 (and a correlation coefficient of 0.72), using only the Cfree PAHs in water. On average, the model predicted PAH concentrations in crayfish tissue within a factor of 2.4 ± 1.8 of measured concentrations. This affirms that passive water sampling accurately estimates PAH contamination in crayfish. Furthermore, the strong predictive ability of this simple model suggests

  17. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1976

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ballance, W.C.; Freudenthal, Pamela B.

    1977-01-01

    Ground-water levels are measured periodically in a network of about 280 observation wells in Wyoming to record changes in ground-water storage. The areas of water-level observation are mostly where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. This report contains maps showing location of observation wells and water-level changes from 1976 to 1977. Well history, highest and lowest water levels , and hydrographs for most wells also are included. The program of groundwater observation is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the city of Cheyenne. (Woodard-USGS)

  18. Predicting Trihalomethanes (THMs) in the New York City Water Supply

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukundan, R.; Van Dreason, R.

    2013-12-01

    Chlorine, a commonly used disinfectant in most water supply systems, can combine with organic carbon to form disinfectant byproducts including carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs). We used water quality data from 24 monitoring sites within the New York City (NYC) water supply distribution system, measured between January 2009 and April 2012, to develop site-specific empirical models for predicting total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels. Terms in the model included various combinations of the following water quality parameters: total organic carbon, pH, specific conductivity, and water temperature. Reasonable estimates of TTHM levels were achieved with overall R2 of about 0.87 and predicted values within 5 μg/L of measured values. The relative importance of factors affecting TTHM formation was estimated by ranking the model regression coefficients. Site-specific models showed improved model performance statistics compared to a single model for the entire system most likely because the single model did not consider locational differences in the water treatment process. Although never out of compliance in 2011, the TTHM levels in the water supply increased following tropical storms Irene and Lee with 45% of the samples exceeding the 80 μg/L Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) in October and November. This increase was explained by changes in water quality parameters, particularly by the increase in total organic carbon concentration and pH during this period.

  19. Predicting water intake by yearling feedlot steers.

    PubMed

    Sexson, J L; Wagner, J J; Engle, T E; Eickhoff, J

    2012-06-01

    Data from 4 separate beef cattle feedlot experiments, which were conducted at the Southeast Colorado Research Center (SECRC) in Lamar, CO, in 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2007, were utilized in a retrospective longitudinal study investigating possible relationships between daily water consumption (WC), DMI, and weather variables. The data set consisted of 8,209 records from 2001, 2003, 2004, and 2007, with pen based daily WC (L•animal(-1)) and DMI measurements and calculated daily steer BW from April to October in each year. Daily weather data were obtained from the weather station located at Lamar Municipal Airport located approximately 1.9 km from SECRC. Data collected consisted of daily high, low, and mean temperature; high, low, and mean humidity; high, low, and mean sea level pressure; mean wind speed; total precipitation; and average daily wind direction (cosine of radians from due north). Univariate analysis demonstrated that the continuous variables of BW, humidity, and sea level pressure were negatively related (P < 0.0001), whereas DMI, temperature the previous day, daily temperature, change in temperature from the previous day, average wind speed, and the temperature-humidity index (THI) were positively related (P < 0.001) to daily WC. There was a trend (P < 0.06) for the cosine of wind direction (1 = due north and -1 = due south) to be negatively related to WC. The multivariate, parsimonious model predicting average daily WC included (P < 0.05) average humidity, average humidity squared, high temperature squared, high humidity squared, low temperature, low temperature squared, low humidity, average sea level pressure, average wind speed, average daily BW, high sea level pressure, low sea level pressure, high humidity, and low humidity. The generalized R(2) of the parsimonious multivariate model was 0.32. These results indicate that BW and numerous weather factors are related to WC by yearling feedlot steers. Dry matter intake had minimal impact on WC for

  20. Mass-balance model for predicting nitrate in ground water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frimpter, Michael H.; Donohue, John J.; Rapacz, Michael V.

    1990-01-01

    A mass-balance accounting model can be used to guide the management of septic systems and fertilizers to control the degradation of ground-water quality in zones of an aquifer that contribute water to public-supply wells. The nitrate concentration of the mixture in the well can be predicted for steady-state conditions by calculating the concentration that results from the total weight of nitrogen and total volume of water entering the zone of contribution to the well. These calculations will allow water-quality managers to predict the nitrate concentrations that would be produced by different types and levels of development, and to plan development accordingly. Computations for different development schemes provide a technical basis for planners and managers to compare water-quality effects and to select alternatives that limit nitrate concentration in wells.

  1. Models for predicting recreational water quality at Lake Erie beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, Donna S.; Darner, Robert A.; Bertke, Erin E.

    2006-01-01

    Data collected from four Lake Erie beaches during the recreational seasons of 2004-05 and from one Lake Erie beach during 2000-2005 were used to develop predictive models for recreational water quality by means of multiple linear regression. The best model for each beach was based on a unique combination of environmental and water-quality explanatory variables including turbidity, rainfall, wave height, water temperature, day of the year, wind direction, and lake level. Two types of outputs were produced from the models: the predicted Escherichia coli concentration and the probability that the bathing-water standard will be exceeded. The model for one of beaches, Huntington Reservation (Huntington), was validated in 2005. For 2005, the Huntington model yielded more correct responses and better predicted exceedance of the standard than did current methods for assessing recreational water quality, which are based on the previous day's E. coli concentration. Predictions based on the Huntington model have been available to the public through an Internet-based 'nowcasting' system since May 30, 2006. The other beach models are being validated for the first time in 2006. The methods used in this study to develop and test predictive models can be applied at other similar coastal beaches.

  2. Predicting DNA methylation level across human tissues

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Baoshan; Wilker, Elissa H.; Willis-Owen, Saffron A. G.; Byun, Hyang-Min; Wong, Kenny C. C.; Motta, Valeria; Baccarelli, Andrea A.; Schwartz, Joel; Cookson, William O. C. M.; Khabbaz, Kamal; Mittleman, Murray A.; Moffatt, Miriam F.; Liang, Liming

    2014-01-01

    Differences in methylation across tissues are critical to cell differentiation and are key to understanding the role of epigenetics in complex diseases. In this investigation, we found that locus-specific methylation differences between tissues are highly consistent across individuals. We developed a novel statistical model to predict locus-specific methylation in target tissue based on methylation in surrogate tissue. The method was evaluated in publicly available data and in two studies using the latest IlluminaBeadChips: a childhood asthma study with methylation measured in both peripheral blood leukocytes (PBL) and lymphoblastoid cell lines; and a study of postoperative atrial fibrillation with methylation in PBL, atrium and artery. We found that our method can greatly improve accuracy of cross-tissue prediction at CpG sites that are variable in the target tissue [R2 increases from 0.38 (original R2 between tissues) to 0.89 for PBL-to-artery prediction; from 0.39 to 0.95 for PBL-to-atrium; and from 0.81 to 0.98 for lymphoblastoid cell line-to-PBL based on cross-validation, and confirmed using cross-study prediction]. An extended model with multiple CpGs further improved performance. Our results suggest that large-scale epidemiology studies using easy-to-access surrogate tissues (e.g. blood) could be recalibrated to improve understanding of epigenetics in hard-to-access tissues (e.g. atrium) and might enable non-invasive disease screening using epigenetic profiles. PMID:24445802

  3. Predicting DNA methylation level across human tissues.

    PubMed

    Ma, Baoshan; Wilker, Elissa H; Willis-Owen, Saffron A G; Byun, Hyang-Min; Wong, Kenny C C; Motta, Valeria; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Schwartz, Joel; Cookson, William O C M; Khabbaz, Kamal; Mittleman, Murray A; Moffatt, Miriam F; Liang, Liming

    2014-04-01

    Differences in methylation across tissues are critical to cell differentiation and are key to understanding the role of epigenetics in complex diseases. In this investigation, we found that locus-specific methylation differences between tissues are highly consistent across individuals. We developed a novel statistical model to predict locus-specific methylation in target tissue based on methylation in surrogate tissue. The method was evaluated in publicly available data and in two studies using the latest IlluminaBeadChips: a childhood asthma study with methylation measured in both peripheral blood leukocytes (PBL) and lymphoblastoid cell lines; and a study of postoperative atrial fibrillation with methylation in PBL, atrium and artery. We found that our method can greatly improve accuracy of cross-tissue prediction at CpG sites that are variable in the target tissue [R(2) increases from 0.38 (original R(2) between tissues) to 0.89 for PBL-to-artery prediction; from 0.39 to 0.95 for PBL-to-atrium; and from 0.81 to 0.98 for lymphoblastoid cell line-to-PBL based on cross-validation, and confirmed using cross-study prediction]. An extended model with multiple CpGs further improved performance. Our results suggest that large-scale epidemiology studies using easy-to-access surrogate tissues (e.g. blood) could be recalibrated to improve understanding of epigenetics in hard-to-access tissues (e.g. atrium) and might enable non-invasive disease screening using epigenetic profiles. PMID:24445802

  4. Predicting Anthropogenic Noise Contributions to US Waters.

    PubMed

    Gedamke, Jason; Ferguson, Megan; Harrison, Jolie; Hatch, Leila; Henderson, Laurel; Porter, Michael B; Southall, Brandon L; Van Parijs, Sofie

    2016-01-01

    To increase understanding of the potential effects of chronic underwater noise in US waters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) organized two working groups in 2011, collectively called "CetSound," to develop tools to map the density and distribution of cetaceans (CetMap) and predict the contribution of human activities to underwater noise (SoundMap). The SoundMap effort utilized data on density, distribution, acoustic signatures of dominant noise sources, and environmental descriptors to map estimated temporal, spatial, and spectral contributions to background noise. These predicted soundscapes are an initial step toward assessing chronic anthropogenic noise impacts on the ocean's varied acoustic habitats and the animals utilizing them. PMID:26610977

  5. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1975

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goemaat, Robert L.

    1977-01-01

    The objectives of the observation-well program are (1) to provide long-term records of water-level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the prediction of water-level trends and indicate the future availability of ground-water supplies, and (3) to provide information for use in basic research. These selected records serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data may be related. The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those of the U.S. Geological Survey.

  6. Prediction of health levels by remote sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rush, M.; Vernon, S.

    1975-01-01

    Measures of the environment derived from remote sensing were compared to census population/housing measures in their ability to discriminate among health status areas in two urban communities. Three hypotheses were developed to explore the relationships between environmental and health data. Univariate and multiple step-wise linear regression analyses were performed on data from two sample areas in Houston and Galveston, Texas. Environmental data gathered by remote sensing were found to equal or surpass census data in predicting rates of health outcomes. Remote sensing offers the advantages of data collection for any chosen area or time interval, flexibilities not allowed by the decennial census.

  7. Modeling Tidal Water Levels for Canadian Coastal and Offshore waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robin, C. M. I.; MacAulay, P.; Nudds, S.; Godin, A.; de Lange Boom, B.; Bartlett, J.; Maltais, L.; Herron, T.; Craymer, M. R.; Veronneau, M.; Fadaie, K.

    2014-12-01

    IIn 2010, the Canadian Hydrographic Service initiated the Continuous Vertical Datum for Canadian Waters (CVDCW) project, the aim of which is to connect tidal water level datums (high and low water levels, chart datum, etc.) to a national geodetic reference frame over all Canadian tidal waters. Currently, water level datums are tied to a geodetic reference frame at approximately 400 tide stations which have been surveyed with GPS, whereas water levels vary significantly in space even a short distance away from tide stations. The CVDCW captures the relevant spatial variability between stations and offshore by integrating ocean models, gauge data (water level analyses and/or GPS observations), sea level trends, satellite altimetry, and a geoid model. The CVDCW will enable the use of Global Navigation Satellite System technologies (primarily GPS) for hydrographers and navigators. It will also be important for other users including oceanographers, environmental and climate scientists, surveyors and engineers. For instance, it will allow easier integration of hydrographic and terrestrial data, provide a baseline for storm surge modeling and climate change adaptation, and aid with practical issues such as sovereignty and the definition of the coastline. Once high and low water surfaces are complete, they will define a large portion of the vertical link between land and ocean, helping to delineate flooding thresholds and inter-tidal ecosystem zones and boundaries. Here we present an overview of the methodology using a set of prototype model results, and will outline features of interest for studies in coastal stability, climate change adaptation, and sea level change.

  8. Cascade generalized predictive control strategy for boiler drum level.

    PubMed

    Xu, Min; Li, Shaoyuan; Cai, Wenjian

    2005-07-01

    This paper proposes a cascade model predictive control scheme for boiler drum level control. By employing generalized predictive control structures for both inner and outer loops, measured and unmeasured disturbances can be effectively rejected, and drum level at constant load is maintained. In addition, nonminimum phase characteristic and system constraints in both loops can be handled effectively by generalized predictive control algorithms. Simulation results are provided to show that cascade generalized predictive control results in better performance than that of well tuned cascade proportional integral differential controllers. The algorithm has also been implemented to control a 75-MW boiler plant, and the results show an improvement over conventional control schemes. PMID:16082788

  9. Application of TDR to water level measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomsen, A.; Hansen, B.; Schelde, K.

    2000-09-01

    A specialised time domain reflectometry (TDR) probe for measuring water level in tanks collecting surface runoff was developed, calibrated and field-tested. The water level probe — in the form of a slightly modified soil moisture probe — was developed as part of a TDR measuring system designed for continuous monitoring of soil water content and surface runoff in plot studies of water erosion and sediment transport. A computer algorithm for the analysis of TDR traces from the new probe was developed and incorporated into existing software for automated acquisition and analysis of TDR data. Laboratory calibration showed that water level could be measured with sufficient accuracy (standard deviation <2 mm) for a range of applications in hydrology. Soil erosion is typically a short duration process closely linked to soil moisture content and rainfall intensity. A major benefit of integrating time critical measurements of surface runoff and soil moisture into a single system is the synchronisation of measurements. Measurements were made on a regular schedule except during rainfall events when the measuring rate depended on rainfall intensity. In a parallel calibration study it was shown that the performance of the TDR probe was comparable to a commercial ultrasonic liquid level sensor used for measuring runoff at an erosion site not instrumented for automated TDR measurements.

  10. Reading Ground Water Levels with a Smartphone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Overloop, Peter-Jules

    2015-04-01

    Most ground water levels in the world are measured manually. It requires employees of water management organizations to visit sites in the field and execute a measurement procedure that requires special tools and training. Once the measurement is done, the value is jotted down in a notebook and later, at the office, entered in a computer system. This procedure is slow and prone to human errors. A new development is the introduction of modern Information and Communication Technology to support this task and make it more efficient. Two innovations are introduced to measure and immediately store ground water levels. The first method is a measuring tape that gives a sound and light when it just touches the water in combination with an app on a smartphone with which a picture needs to be taken from the measuring tape. Using dedicated pattern recognition algorithms, the depth is read on the tape and it is verified if the light is on. The second method estimates the depth using a sound from the smartphone that is sent into the borehole and records the reflecting waves in the pipe. Both methods use gps-localization of the smartphone to store the depths in the right location in the central database, making the monitoring of ground water levels a real-time process that eliminates human errors.

  11. Hydro static water level systems at Fermilab

    SciTech Connect

    Volk, J.T.; Guerra, J.A.; Hansen, S.U.; Kiper, T.E.; Jostlein, H.; Shiltsev, V.; Chupyra, A.; Kondaurov, M.; Singatulin, S.

    2006-09-01

    Several Hydrostatic Water Leveling systems (HLS) are in use at Fermilab. Three systems are used to monitor quadrupoles in the Tevatron and two systems are used to monitor ground motion for potential sites for the International Linear Collider (ILC). All systems use capacitive sensors to determine the water level of water in a pool. These pools are connected with tubing so that relative vertical shifts between sensors can be determined. There are low beta quadrupoles at the B0 and D0 interaction regions of Tevatron accelerator. These quadrupoles use BINP designed and built sensors and have a resolution of 1 micron. All regular lattice superconducting quadrupoles (a total of 204) in the Tevatron use a Fermilab designed system and have a resolution of 6 microns. Data on quadrupole motion due to quenches, changes in temperature will be presented. In addition data for ground motion for ILC studies caused by natural and cultural factors will be presented.

  12. Fuzzy Neural Networks for water level and discharge forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvisi, Stefano; Franchini, Marco

    2010-05-01

    A new procedure for water level (or discharge) forecasting under uncertainty using artificial neural networks is proposed: uncertainty is expressed in the form of a fuzzy number. For this purpose, the parameters of the neural network, namely, the weights and biases, are represented by fuzzy numbers rather than crisp numbers. Through the application of the extension principle, the fuzzy number representative of the output variable (water level or discharge) is then calculated at each time step on the basis of a set of crisp inputs and fuzzy parameters of the neural network. The proposed neural network thus allows uncertainty to be taken into account at the forecasting stage not providing only deterministic or crisp predictions, but rather predictions in terms of 'the discharge (or level) will fall between two values, indicated according to the level of credibility considered, whereas it will take on a certain value when the level of credibility is maximum'. The fuzzy parameters of the neural network are estimated using a calibration procedure that imposes a constraint whereby for an assigned h-level the envelope of the corresponding intervals representing the outputs (forecasted levels or discharges, calculated at different points in time) must include a prefixed percentage of observed values. The proposed model is applied to two different case studies. Specifically, the data related to the first case study are used to develop and test a flood event-based water level forecasting model, whereas the data related to the latter are used for continuous discharge forecasting. The results obtained are compared with those provided by other data-driven models - Bayesian neural networks (Neal, R.M. 1992, Bayesian training of backpropagation networks by the hybrid Monte Carlo method. Tech. Rep. CRG-TR-92-1, Dep. of Comput. Sci., Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, Ont., Canada.) and the Local Uncertainty Estimation Model (Shrestha D.L. and Solomatine D.P. 2006, Machine learning

  13. Development and evaluation of a water level proportional water sampler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, P.; Lange, A.; Doppler, T.

    2013-12-01

    We developed and adapted a new type of sampler for time-integrated, water level proportional water quality sampling (e.g. nutrients, contaminants and stable isotopes). Our samplers are designed for sampling small to mid-size streams based on the law of Hagen-Poiseuille, where a capillary (or a valve) limits the sampling aliquot by reducing the air flux out of a submersed plastic (HDPE) sampling container. They are good alternatives to battery-operated automated water samplers when working in remote areas, or at streams that are characterized by pronounced daily discharge variations such as glacier streams. We evaluated our samplers against standard automated water samplers (ISCO 2900 and ISCO 6712) during the snowmelt in the Black Forest and the Alps and tested them in remote glacial catchments in Iceland, Switzerland and Kyrgyzstan. The results clearly showed that our samplers are an adequate tool for time-integrated, water level proportional water sampling at remote test sites, as they do not need batteries, are relatively inexpensive, lightweight, and compact. They are well suited for headwater streams - especially when sampling for stable isotopes - as the sampled water is perfectly protected against evaporation. Moreover, our samplers have a reduced risk of icing in cold environments, as they are installed submersed in water, whereas automated samplers (typically installed outside the stream) may get clogged due to icing of hoses. Based on this study, we find these samplers to be an adequate replacement for automated samplers when time-integrated sampling or solute load estimates are the main monitoring tasks.

  14. Predicting Students' Homework Environment Management at the Secondary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2012-01-01

    The present study examined empirical models of variables posited to predict students' homework environment management at the secondary school level. The participants were 866 8th graders from 61 classes and 745 11th graders from 46 classes. Most of the variance in homework environment management occurred at the student level, with classmates'…

  15. How Temperature and Water levels affect Polar Mesospheric Cloud Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. L.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V.

    2012-12-01

    Using the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument data, which is part of the Aeronomy in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission, we compare the albedo and ice water content measurements of CIPS with the Navy Operation Global Atmospheric Prediction System - Advanced Level Phyiscs and High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) temperature and water vapor data in order to derive a greater understanding of cloud formation and physics. We particularly focus on data from June 2007 and July 2007 in this case study because of particular cloud structures and formations during this time period for future studies.

  16. iCOLT: Seasonal prediction of water irrigation need in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavan, Valentina; Villani, Giulia; Spisni, Andrea; Pratizzoli, William; Tomei, Fausto; Botarelli, Lucio; Marletto, Vittorio

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean regions are frequently exposed to water scarcity and an early assessment of the potential water requirements from summer crops is very important for water management at regional and Reclamation Consortia level. Since 2007, ARPA-SIMC has developed the operational climate service iColt (irrigazione e Classificazione delle cOLture in atto tramite Telerilevamento - irrigation and classification of crops by remote sensing), in order to monitor and predict potential water needs for crop irrigation at different geographical scales. iColt has three components: a) a classification of crops through a set of satellite images acquired at different phenological stages; b) calibrated multi-model ensemble seasonal predictions of climate indices, using as input the EUROSIP products; c) a crop water balance prediction by the model CRITERIA. The climate indices are predicted as input for a weather generator to produce an ensemble of daily meteorological time-series. The meteorological series together with the regional distribution of crops, classified by remote sensing, are used by the water balance and crop development model CRITERIA to assess the crop potential water requirement at geographical level during the following summer. CRITERIA includes an empirical model for computing the shallow water table through spring (observed ) and summer (predicted) meteorological data. The water requirements predictions are verified at the end of summer by forcing the water balance model using the observed meteorological data. The results obtained from 2011 to 2014 are described and show that the operational service has a better skill than the seasonal ensemble prediction products used as input. In all the years, the sign of the irrigation water requirements anomaly has been correctly forecasted. Furthermore, the system has shown to be able to capture the spatial variability of the predicted field. These encouraging results are thought to be due partly to the correct

  17. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltrat...

  18. GNSS-Reflectometry based water level monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckheinrich, Jamila; Schön, Steffen; Beyerle, Georg; Apel, Heiko; Semmling, Maximilian; Wickert, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Due to climate changing conditions severe changes in the Mekong delta in Vietnam have been recorded in the last years. The goal of the German Vietnamese WISDOM (Water-related Information system for the Sustainable Development Of the Mekong Delta) project is to build an information system to support and assist the decision makers, planners and authorities for an optimized water and land management. One of WISDOM's tasks is the flood monitoring of the Mekong delta. Earth reflected L-band signals from the Global Navigation Satellite System show a high reflectivity on water and ice surfaces or on wet soil so that GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) could contribute to monitor the water level in the main streams of the Mekong delta complementary to already existing monitoring networks. In principle, two different GNSS-R methods exist: the code- and the phase-based one. As the latter being more accurate, a new generation of GORS (GNSS Occultation, Reflectometry and Scatterometry) JAVAD DELTA GNSS receiver has been developed with the aim to extract precise phase observations. In a two week lasting measurement campaign, the receiver has been tested and several reflection events at the 150-200 m wide Can Tho river in Vietnam have been recorded. To analyze the geometrical impact on the quantity and quality of the reflection traces two different antennas height were tested. To track separately the direct and the reflected signal, two antennas were used. To derive an average height of the water level, for a 15 min observation interval, a phase model has been developed. Combined with the coherent observations, the minimum slope has been calculated based on the Least- Squares method. As cycle slips and outliers will impair the results, a preprocessing of the data has been performed. A cycle slip detection strategy that allows for automatic detection, identification and correction is proposed. To identify outliers, the data snooping method developed by Baarda 1968 is used. In this

  19. Hydrostatic Water Level Systems At Homestake DUSEL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    Two arrays of Fermilab-style hydrostatic water level sensors have been installed in the former Homestake gold mine in Lead, SD, the site of the new Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL). Sensors were constructed at Fermilab from 8.5 cm diameter PVC pipe (housing) that was sealed on the ends and fit with a proximity sensor. The instrument have a height of 10 cm. Two ports in each sensor housing provide for connectivity, the upper port for air and the bottom port for water. Multiple instruments connected in series provide a precise water level and differences in readings between successive sensors provide for ground tilt to be resolved. Sensor resolution is 5 μm per count and has a range of approximately 1.25 cm. Data output from each sensor is relayed to a Fermilab-constructed readout card that also has temperature/relative humidity and barometric pressure sensors connected. All data are relayed out of the mine by fiber optic cable and can be recorded by Ethernet at remote locations. The current arrays have been installed on the 2000-ft level (610 m) and consist of six instruments in each array. Three sensors were placed in a N-S oriented drift and three in an E-W oriented drift. Using this orientation, it is anticipated that tilt direction may be resolved in addition to overall tilt magnitude. To date the data show passage of earth tides and frequency analysis has revealed five components to this signal, three associated with the semi-diurnal (~12.4 hr) and two with the diurnal (~24.9 hr) tides. Currently, installation methods are being analyzed between concrete pillar and rib-mounting using the existing setup on the 2000-ft level. Using these results, two additional arrays of Fermilab instruments will be installed on the 4550-ft and 4850-ft levels (1387 and 1478 m, respectively). In addition to Fermilab instruments, several high resolution Budker tiltmeters (1 μm resolution) will be installed in the mine workings in the near future, some

  20. Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntosh, Peter C.; Church, John A.; Miles, Elaine R.; Ridgway, Ken; Spillman, Claire M.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level varies on a range of time scales from tidal to decadal and centennial change. To date, little attention has been focussed on the prediction of interannual sea level anomalies. Here we demonstrate that forecasts of coastal sea level anomalies from the dynamical Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) have significant skill throughout the equatorial Pacific and along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Indian Oceans at lead times out to 8 months. POAMA forecasts for the western Pacific generally have greater skill than persistence, particularly at longer lead times. POAMA also has comparable or greater skill than previously published statistical forecasts from both a Markov model and canonical correlation analysis. Our results indicate the capability of physically based models to address the challenge of providing skillful forecasts of seasonal sea level fluctuations for coastal communities over a broad area and at a range of lead times.

  1. AUTOMATED WATER LEVEL MEASUREMENTS IN SMALL-DIAMETER AQUIFER TUBES

    SciTech Connect

    PETERSEN SW; EDRINGTON RS; MAHOOD RO; VANMIDDLESWORTH PE

    2011-01-14

    Groundwater contaminated with hexavalent chromium, strontium-90, and uranium discharges into the Columbia River along approximately 16 km (10 mi) of the shoreline. Various treatment systems have and will continue to be implemented to eliminate the impact of Hanford Site contamination to the river. To optimize the various remediation strategies, it is important to understand interactions between groundwater and the surface water of the Columbia River. An automated system to record water levels in aquifer sampling tubes installed in the hyporheic zone was designed and tested to (1) gain a more complete understanding of groundwater/river water interactions based on gaining and losing conditions ofthe Columbia River, (2) record and interpret data for consistent and defensible groundwater/surface water conceptual models that may be used to better predict subsurface contaminant fate and transport, and (3) evaluate the hydrodynamic influence of extraction wells in an expanded pump-and-treat system to optimize the treatment system. A system to measure water levels in small-diameter aquifer tubes was designed and tested in the laboratory and field. The system was configured to allow manual measurements to periodically calibrate the instrument and to permit aquifer tube sampling without removing the transducer tube. Manual measurements were collected with an e-tape designed and fabricated especially for this test. Results indicate that the transducer system accurately records groundwater levels in aquifer tubes. These data are being used to refine the conceptual and numeric models to better understand interactions in the hyporheic zone of the Columbia River and the adjacent river water and groundwater, and changes in hydrochemistry relative to groundwater flux as river water recharges the aquifer and then drains back out in response to changes in the river level.

  2. Water levels shape fishing participation in flood-control reservoirs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Meals, K. O.

    2013-01-01

    We examined the relationship between fishing effort (hours fished) and average March–May water level in 3 flood control reservoirs in Mississippi. Fishing effort increased as water level rose, peaked at intermediate water levels, and decreased at high water levels. We suggest that the observed arched-shaped relationship is driven by the shifting influence of fishability (adequacy of the fishing circumstances from an angler's perspective) and catch rate along a water level continuum. Fishability reduces fishing effort during low water, despite the potential for higher catch rates. Conversely, reduced catch rates and fishability at high water also curtail effort. Thus, both high and low water levels seem to discourage fishing effort, whereas anglers seem to favor intermediate water levels. Our results have implications for water level management in reservoirs with large water level fluctuations.

  3. Decline in water level boosts cyanobacteria dominance in subtropical reservoirs.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jun; Lv, Hong; Yang, Jun; Liu, Lemian; Yu, Xiaoqing; Chen, Huihuang

    2016-07-01

    Globally aquatic ecosystems are likely to become more vulnerable to extreme water fluctuation rates due to the combined effects of climate change and human activity. However, relatively little is known about the importance of water level fluctuations (WLF) as a predictor of phytoplankton community shifts in subtropical reservoirs. In this study, we used one year of data (2010-2011) from four subtropical reservoirs of southeast China to quantify the effects of WLF and other environmental variables on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria dynamics. The reservoirs showed an apparent switch between a turbid state dominated by cyanobacteria and a clear state dominated by other non-cyanobacterial taxa (e.g., diatoms, green algae). Cyanobacterial dominance decreased, or increased, following marked changes in water level. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that pH, euphotic depth, WLF, and total phosphorus provided the best model and explained 30.8% of the variance in cyanobacteria biomass. Path analysis showed that positive WLF (i.e. an increase in water level) can reduce the cyanobacteria biomass either directly by a dilution effect or indirectly by modifying the limnological conditions of the reservoirs in complex pathways. To control the risk of cyanobacterial dominance or blooms, WLF should be targeted to be above +2m/month; that is an increase in water level of 2m or more. Given that WLF is likely to be of more frequent occurrence under future predicted conditions of climate variability and human activity, water level management can be widely used in small and medium-sized reservoirs to prevent the toxic cyanobacterial blooms and to protect the ecosystem integrity or functions. PMID:27016690

  4. The response of mire vegetation to water level drawdown

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurki, Kirsi; Laine, Jukka; Vasander, Harri; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina

    2010-05-01

    Mires have a significant role in climate change mitigation due to their enormous carbon storage and due to the fluxes of greenhouse gases between ecosystem and the atmosphere. Mire vegetation is controlled by ecohydrology, climate and by the competition of plants on light and nutrients. The water logged conditions create a challenging environment for both vascular plants and bryophytes; therefore majority of plants growing in these habitats are highly specialized. Global warming is predicted to affect mire vegetation indirectly through increased evapotranspiration leading to decreased water table levels down to 14-22 centimeters. Water level drawdown is likely to affect the vegetation composition and consequently the ecosystem functioning of mires. Previous studies covering the first years following water table level drawdown have shown that vascular plants benefit from a lower water table and hollow-specific Sphagnum species suffer. In addition to changes in plant abundances the diversity of plant communities decreases. The lawn and hollow communities of Sphagna and sedges are found to be the most sensitive plant groups. It has been shown that surveys on vegetation changes can have different results depending on the time scale. The short and long term responses are likely vary in heterogenous mire vegetation; therefore predictions can be done more reliably with longer surveys. We applied BACI (before-after-control-impact) experimental approach to study the responses of different functional mire plant groups to water level drawdown. There are 3 control plots, 3 treatment plots with moderate water level drawdown and 3 plots drained for forestry 40 years ago as a reference. The plots are located in meso-, oligo- and ombrotrophic sites in Lakkasuo (Orivesi, Finland). The vegetation was surveyed from permanent sampling points before ditching in 2000 and during the years 2001-2003 and 2009. The data was analyzed with NMDS (PC-Ord) and DCA (CANOCO). Overall results show

  5. Reservoir Computing approach to Great Lakes water level forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coulibaly, Paulin

    2010-02-01

    SummaryThe use of echo state network (ESN) for dynamical system modeling is known as Reservoir Computing and has been shown to be effective for a number of applications, including signal processing, learning grammatical structure, time series prediction and motor/system control. However, the performance of Reservoir Computing approach on hydrological time series remains largely unexplored. This study investigates the potential of ESN or Reservoir Computing for long-term prediction of lake water levels. Great Lakes water levels from 1918 to 2005 are used to develop and evaluate the ESN models. The forecast performance of the ESN-based models is compared with the results obtained from two benchmark models, the conventional recurrent neural network (RNN) and the Bayesian neural network (BNN). The test results indicate a strong ability of ESN models to provide improved lake level forecasts up to 10-month ahead - suggesting that the inherent structure and innovative learning approach of the ESN is suitable for hydrological time series modeling. Another particular advantage of ESN learning approach is that it simplifies the network training complexity and avoids the limitations inherent to the gradient descent optimization method. Overall, it is shown that the ESN can be a good alternative method for improved lake level forecasting, performing better than both the RNN and the BNN on the four selected Great Lakes time series, namely, the Lakes Erie, Huron-Michigan, Ontario, and Superior.

  6. Identifying Groundwater Droughts using standardized Water Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haas, J. C.; Birk, S.

    2015-12-01

    Drought indices are frequently used to compare the occurrence and characteristics of droughts at different sites as well as to characterize different hydrometeorological aspects of drought. The existing indices have been mostly focused on precipitation, soil moisture, and surface waters though. To enable a comparison of groundwater drought with other hydrometeorological aspects of drought, the Standardized Groundwater level Index SGI was proposed by Bloomfield and Marchant (2013). So far, the SGI has been applied only to consolidated aquifers in the UK. The purpose of this work is to assess the applicability and performance of the SGI in unconsolidated, porous aquifers situated in valleys, which represent the main sources of drinking water in many regions. For this purpose, long-term time series of groundwater levels both in wet and dry regions of Austria are analyzed and compared with time series of precipitation, evapotranspiration and river stages. It is shown that large drought events, such as 2003 with only 79% of the long-term average precipitation, but also less severe events are reflected by negative SGI anomalies. To identify and classify time periods with a groundwater deficit, such benchmark years are used to propose a threshold value of the SGI defining the onset of a drought. Time periods where a clear drop in SGI does not correspond to a significant anomaly in precipitation are also visible in the data. More detailed investigations into small valley fill aquifers in the south-east of Austria reveal that the SGI may closely correlate with river stage fluctuations. Also, effects of the geographic setting (mountainous area vs. lowland) and the impacts of human activities (hydropower, drinking water extraction) are shown. Bloomfield, J. P., Marchant, B. P., Analysis of groundwater drought building on the standardised precipitation index approach, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 4769-4787, 2013.

  7. Water Impact Prediction Tool for Recoverable Rockets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rooker, William; Glaese, John; Clayton, Joe

    2011-01-01

    Reusing components from a rocket launch can be cost saving. NASA's space shuttle system has reusable components that return to the Earth and impact the ocean. A primary example is the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) that descends on parachutes to the Earth after separation and impacts the ocean. Water impact generates significant structural loads that can damage the booster, so it is important to study this event in detail in the design of the recovery system. Some recent examples of damage due to water impact include the Ares I-X First Stage deformation as seen in Figure 1 and the loss of the SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage.To ensure that a component can be recovered or that the design of the recovery system is adequate, an adequate set of structural loads is necessary for use in failure assessments. However, this task is difficult since there are many conditions that affect how a component impacts the water and the resulting structural loading that a component sees. These conditions include the angle of impact with respect to the water, the horizontal and vertical velocities, the rotation rate, the wave height and speed, and many others. There have been attempts to simulate water impact. One approach is to analyze water impact using explicit finite element techniques such as those employed by the LS-Dyna tool [1]. Though very detailed, this approach is time consuming and would not be suitable for running Monte Carlo or optimization analyses. The purpose of this paper is to describe a multi-body simulation tool that runs quickly and that captures the environments a component might see. The simulation incorporates the air and water interaction with the component, the component dynamics (i.e. modes and mode shapes), any applicable parachutes and lines, the interaction of winds and gusts, and the wave height and speed. It is capable of quickly conducting Monte Carlo studies to better capture the environments and genetic algorithm optimizations to reproduce a

  8. A high resolution water level forecast for the German Bight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niehüser, Sebastian; Dangendorf, Sönke; Arns, Arne; Jensen, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Many coastal regions worldwide are potentially endangered by storm surges which can cause disastrous damages and loss of life. Due to climate change induced sea level rise, an accumulation of such events is expected by the end of the 21th century. Therefore, advanced storm surge warnings are needed to be prepared when another storm surge hits the coast. In the shallow southeastern North Sea these storm surge warnings are nowadays routinely provided for selected tide gauge locations along a coastline through state-of-the-art forecast systems, which are based on a coupled system of empirical tidal predictions and numerical storm surge forecasts. Along the German North Sea coastline, the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency in cooperation with the German Weather Service is responsible for the storm surge warnings. They provide accurate, high frequency and real-time water level forecasts for up to six days ahead at selected tide gauge sites via internet, telephone and broadcast. Since water levels along the German North Sea coastline are dominated by shallow water effects and a very complex bathymetric structure of the seabed, the pointwise forecast is not necessarily transferable to un-gauged areas between the tide gauges. Here we aim to close this existing gap and develop water level forecasts with a high spatial (continuously with a resolution of at least 1 kilometer) as well as a high temporal (at least 15-minute values) resolution along the entire German North Sea coastline. We introduce a new methodology for water level forecasts which combines empirical or statistical and numerical models. While the tidal forecast is performed by non-parametric interpolation techniques between un-gauged and gauged sites, storm surges are estimated on the basis of statistical/empirical storm surge formulas taken from a numerical model hindcast. The procedure will be implemented in the operational mode forced with numerical weather forecasts.

  9. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1963-64

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, P.R.

    1965-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1963-64), is the third of a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 5-year period of (1956-60). The second report, published in 1964, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1961-62.) (available as photostat copy only)

  10. County-Level Crop Yield Prediction Using Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagstaff, K. L.; Roper, A.; Lane, T.

    2007-12-01

    Early estimates of crop yield, particularly at a fine scale, can inform precision agriculture efforts. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) currently provides estimates of yield on a monthly basis for each state. These estimates are based on phone interviews with farmers and in-situ examination of randomly selected plots. We seek to provide predictions at a much higher spatial resolution, on a more frequent basis, using remote sensing observations. We use publicly available data from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on the Aqua and Terra spacecraft. These observations have a spatial resolution of 250 m and consist of two spectral bands (red and infra-red) with a repeat period of 8 days. As part of the HARVIST (Heterogeneous Agricultural Research Via Interactive, Scalable Technology) project, we have created statistical crop yield models using historical MODIS data combined with the per-county yield reported by the USDA at the end of the growing season. In our approach, we analyze 100 randomly selected historical pixels from each county to generate a yield prediction for the county as a whole. We construct a time series for each pixel that consists of its NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) value observed during each 8-day time period to date. We then cluster all pixels together to identify groups of distinct elements (different crops, bodies of water, urban areas, desert, etc.) and create a regression model for each one. For each crop of interest, the model that best predicts that crop's historical yield is selected. These models can then be applied to data from subsequent years to generate predictions for the future. We applied this approach to data from California and Kansas for corn and wheat. We found that, in general, the yield prediction error decreased as the harvest time approached. In California, distinctly different models were selected to predict corn and wheat, permitting specialization

  11. Predictability of sacral base levelness based on iliac crest measurements.

    PubMed

    Dott, G A; Hart, C L; McKay, C

    1994-05-01

    A level sacral base plane is necessary to allow normalization of complex lumbosacral mechanics. Palpatory examinations are often used to evaluate for leg length discrepancy and pelvic obliquity despite improved accuracy and consistency of radiographic techniques. Treatment based on palpatory examinations suppose a direct and consistent relationship between the pelvic bones (innominates) and the sacral base. To evaluate the relationship between iliac crest levelness and sacral base levelness, a radiographic postural survey in the upright, weight-bearing position was performed on 358 men and women thought to have pelvic obliquity. Of these subjects, 293 demonstrated unlevel iliac crest heights or sacral base > or = 3/16 inch (4.76 mm), with iliac crest heights accurately predicting sacral base position 62% of the time. At > or = 3/8 inch (9.53 mm), 68% of the cases were accurately predicted. When the criterion for unlevelness was increased to > or = 1/2 inch (12.70 mm), the predictive accuracy improved to 83%. Radiographic findings in this study demonstrate a significant difference between iliac crest heights and sacral base position. In cases of mild to moderate short leg syndromes, the iliac crest height is an unreliable predictor of the direction or degree of sacral base levelness. PMID:8056627

  12. Predictive models for forecasting hourly urban water demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrera, Manuel; Torgo, Luís; Izquierdo, Joaquín; Pérez-García, Rafael

    2010-06-01

    SummaryOne of the goals of efficient water supply management is the regular supply of clean water at the pressure required by consumers. In this context, predicting water consumption in urban areas is of key importance for water supply management. This prediction is also relevant in processes for reviewing prices; as well as for operational management of a water network. In this paper, we describe and compare a series of predictive models for forecasting water demand. The models are obtained using time series data from water consumption in an urban area of a city in south-eastern Spain. This includes highly non-linear time series data, which has conditioned the type of models we have included in our study. Namely, we have considered artificial neural networks, projection pursuit regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forests and support vector regression. Apart from these models, we also propose a simple model based on the weighted demand profile resulting from our exploratory analysis of the data. In our comparative study, all predictive models were evaluated using an experimental methodology for hourly time series data that detailed water demand in a hydraulic sector of a water supply network in a city in south-eastern Spain. The accuracy of the obtained results, together with the medium size of the demand area, suggests that this was a suitable environment for making adequate management decisions.

  13. Looking at soluble CD23 levels to predict lymphoma.

    PubMed

    2001-10-01

    As we noted in our first article on lymphoma, there isn't any quick and simple test to diagnose or predict which PHAs will develop this cancer. Nor are there any symptoms that specifically occur from having lymphoma. To try to remedy the situation, researchers in Italy have been monitoring levels of the a protein called soluble CD23 (sCD23) in the blood and fluid surrounding the brain--cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). They have found higher-than-normal levels of sCD23 in the CSF of PHAs who have brain lymphoma. PMID:11768872

  14. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1961-62

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, P.R.; Moeller, M.D.

    1964-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; and (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1960-62), is the second of a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 5-year period of (1956-60). (available as photostat copy only)

  15. Water Habitat Study: Prediction Makes It More Meaningful.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasgow, Dennis R.

    1982-01-01

    Suggests a teaching strategy for water habitat studies to help students make a meaningful connection between physiochemical data (dissolved oxygen content, pH, and water temperature) and biological specimens they collect. Involves constructing a poster and using it to make predictions. Provides sample poster. (DC)

  16. Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model (TBWCM): As a Predictive Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model was developed as a predictive tool for estimating the impact of changing nutrient loads on water clarity as measured by secchi depth. The model combines a physical mixing model with an irradiance model and nutrient cycling model. A 10 segment bi...

  17. Predicting 'very poor' beach water quality gradings using classification tree.

    PubMed

    Thoe, Wai; Choi, King Wah; Lee, Joseph Hun-wei

    2016-02-01

    A beach water quality prediction system has been developed in Hong Kong using multiple linear regression (MLR) models. However, linear models are found to be weak at capturing the infrequent 'very poor' water quality occasions when Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL. This study uses a classification tree to increase the accuracy in predicting the 'very poor' water quality events at three Hong Kong beaches affected either by non-point source or point source pollution. Binary-output classification trees (to predict whether E. coli concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL) are developed over the periods before and after the implementation of the Harbour Area Treatment Scheme, when systematic changes in water quality were observed. Results show that classification trees can capture more 'very poor' events in both periods when compared to the corresponding linear models, with an increase in correct positives by an average of 20%. Classification trees are also developed at two beaches to predict the four-category Beach Water Quality Indices. They perform worse than the binary tree and give excessive false alarms of 'very poor' events. Finally, a combined modelling approach using both MLR model and classification tree is proposed to enhance the beach water quality prediction system for Hong Kong. PMID:26837834

  18. Environmental correction factors for predicting room sound pressure levels

    SciTech Connect

    Warnock, A.C.C.

    1998-10-01

    ARI Standard 885 provides a method for calculating sound pressure levels in room below plenums containing air-handling devices. An important step in the calculation is the correction of the sound power for the device from values provided by the manufacturer to values appropriate for use in occupied spaces. This correction is called the environmental adjustment factor. It compensates for the fact that sound power measured for a source placed outdoors or in a hemi-free field has been found to be greater at low frequencies than the sound power measured for the same source in a reverberation room. When making predictions of sound pressure level in a room using such sound power levels, one has to estimate the reduction in sound power caused by the room. Estimated reductions provided in ARI 885 were examined during ASHRAE research project RP-755 and found to be too large. Lower values are suggested in this paper.

  19. Seasonal Predictability of Water Scarcity at the Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerts, Albrecht; Winsemius, Hessel; Dutra, Emanuel; Beckers, Joost; Brolsma, Reinder; van Beek, Rens; Pappenberger, Florian; Westerhoff, Rogier; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Timely indication of water scarcity is most important for early mitigation of serious water and food shortages across the globe. Within the EU FP7 GLOWASIS project a pre-validated GMES Global Service for Water Scarcity Information has been set up and tested. The service uses the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to compute water fluxes and establishes monthly water scarcity by combining the outputs from PCR-GLOBWB with a number of water demands. The service has been set up in the forecast shell Delft-FEWS. In this contribution, we evaluate the skill of the system across the globe in terms of forecasting a number of drought and water scarcity related indicators such as the water scarcity index, river discharge, soil moisture content and actual evaporation. First, we test how much skill is gained from memory by comparing skill from an Ensermble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP (revESP) experiment using ERAInterim precipitation (GPCP corrected), temperature and Penman Monteith potential evaporation. From these experiments, critical lead times are derived for water scarcity, discharge and other hydrologic variables indicating the relative importance of initial condition versus meteorological forcing (at 0.5 degree resolution). Subsequently, from a seasonal hydrological hindcast of 30 years (1981-2010) the added value of ECMWF seasonal forecasts (with and without bias correction) over climatological forecasts (e.g. ESP) is evaluated by looking qualitatively at the 'actual skill' of the water scarcity forecasts for individual water scarcity/drought events over the globe. The first analyses show that predictability of water scarcity is highly variable across the globe (per season and location). In some areas water scarcity is predictable at least up to three month lead time.

  20. Ground-water levels in Anchorage, Alaska, 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glass, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Water-level data collected during 1985 for 146 Anchorage wells deeper than 40 feet are presented. Hydrographs of water levels in 20 wells for the period 1970 through 1985 are also given. The report describes groundwater conditions and seasonal fluctuations in water levels, and includes pumpage figures and well-construction data. (USGS)

  1. County Level Assessment of Impaired Waters and Gastrointestinal Infections

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation therefore, assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water ...

  2. Recent and late quaternary changes in water level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walcott, R. I.

    1975-01-01

    Water level changes of both the Great Lakes and the sea are described along with methods of analyzing water level data. The influence of elastic deformation of the earth and viscosity is discussed. Causes of water level changes reviewed include: earth movements, geoid changes, storm surges or meteorological phenomena, and melting ice in Antarctica, Greenland, and the mountain glaciers.

  3. A physical descriptive model for predicting bacteria level variation at a dynamic beach.

    PubMed

    He, Cheng; Post, Yvonne; Dony, John; Edge, Tom; Patel, Mahesh; Rochfort, Quintin

    2016-08-01

    A rational-based physical descriptive model (PDM) has been developed to predict the levels of Escherichia coli in water at a beach with dynamic conditions in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Ontario, Canada. Bacteria loadings in the water were affected not only by multiple physical factors (precipitation, discharge, wind, etc.), but also by cumulative effects, intensity, duration and timing of storm events. These may not be linearly related to the observed variations in bacteria levels, and are unlikely to be properly represented by a widely used multiple linear regression model. In order to account for these complex relationships, the amounts of precipitation and nearby creek discharge, the impact of various time-related factors, lag time between events and sample collection, and threshold for different parameters were used in determining bacteria levels. This new comprehensive PDM approach improved the accuracy of the E. coli level predictions in the studied beach water compared to the previously developed statistical predictive and presently used geometric mean models. In spite of the complexity and dynamic conditions at the studied beach, the PDM achieved 75% accuracy overall for the five case years examined. PMID:27441857

  4. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1969-70

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, R.L.

    1972-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. In addition to the water-supply papers, the U.S. Geological Survey, cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, has published the following informal reports on water levels in Oklahoma. Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1956-60 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1961-62 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1963-64 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1965-66 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1967-68 Records of water-level measurements in wells in the Oklahoma Panhandle, 1966-70 Records of water-level measurements in wells in the Oklahoma Panhandle, 1971-72 The basic observation-well network in Oklahoma during the period 1969-70 included the following counties: Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Caddo, Cimarron

  5. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions

  6. Predicting pollutant concentrations in the water column during dredging operations: Implications for sediment quality criteria.

    PubMed

    Wasserman, Julio Cesar; Wasserman, Maria Angélica V; Barrocas, Paulo Rubens G; Almeida, Aline Mansur

    2016-07-15

    The development of new dredging techniques that can reduce, or at least predict, the environmental impacts, is in high demand by governments in developing countries. In the present work, a new methodology was developed, to evaluate the level of metals contamination (i.e. cadmium, lead and zinc) of the water column, during a dredging operation. This methodology was used to evaluate the impacts of the construction of a new maritime terminal in Sepetiba Bay, Brazil. The methodology quantifies the amount of resuspended sediments and calculates the expected contaminants concentrations in the water column. The results indicated that sediment quality criteria were not compatible with water quality criteria, because the dredging of contaminated sediments does not necessarily yield contaminated water. It is suggested that the use of sediment quality criteria for dredging operations might be abandoned, and the methodology presented in this study applied to assess dredging's environmental impacts, predicting water contamination levels. PMID:27216043

  7. Predictive modelling of the mine water rebound in an old abandoned Dongwon mine in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, Hwanjo; Kim, Daehoon; Park, Seunghwan; Kim, Gyoungman

    2014-05-01

    The closure of over three-hundred deep coal mines in Korea since the late-1980s, primarily due to the energy and environmental concerns, has produced significant side effects. One of the major challenges is to assess the risk from mine water rebound to overlying aquifers and surface waters, which can produce significant environmental hazards. Some numerical models such as VSS-NET, GRAM and MODFLOW have been developed to predict the quantity, timing and location of discharges resulting from mine water rebound. In this study, we developed a GRAM-based windows program for mine water rebound modelling in abandoned deep mine systems. The program consists of the simulation engine and the GUI modules, each has several subroutines. Changes in mine water level of the Dongwon coal mine, presumably hydrogeologically connected to nearby old abandoned mines, has been monitored after the mine was finally closed in 2005. The water level in the vertical shaft rised up to 420m during the period of 3 years. The system was modelled as two ponds connected by a pipe. Input data include the areas of each pond, catchment areas, the storage coefficient, etc. The predicted changes in the mine water level was very similar to the observed data in the field. For this modelling, in fact, some of the input variable were roughly assumed to match the field data. Nevertheless, this program can be effectively applied to predict the rising of the mine water after the mine closure.

  8. Offset-Free Model Predictive Control of Open Water Channel Based on Moving Horizon Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ekin Aydin, Boran; Rutten, Martine

    2016-04-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) is a powerful control option which is increasingly used by operational water managers for managing water systems. The explicit consideration of constraints and multi-objective management are important features of MPC. However, due to the water loss in open water systems by seepage, leakage and evaporation a mismatch between the model and the real system will be created. These mismatch affects the performance of MPC and creates an offset from the reference set point of the water level. We present model predictive control based on moving horizon estimation (MHE-MPC) to achieve offset free control of water level for open water canals. MHE-MPC uses the past predictions of the model and the past measurements of the system to estimate unknown disturbances and the offset in the controlled water level is systematically removed. We numerically tested MHE-MPC on an accurate hydro-dynamic model of the laboratory canal UPC-PAC located in Barcelona. In addition, we also used well known disturbance modeling offset free control scheme for the same test case. Simulation experiments on a single canal reach show that MHE-MPC outperforms disturbance modeling offset free control scheme.

  9. Drought-trigger ground-water levels and analysis of historical water-level trends in Chester County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schreffler, Curtis L.

    1996-01-01

    The Chester County observation-well network was established in 1973 through a cooperative agreement between the Chester County Water Resources Authority (CCWRA) and the U.S. Geological Survey. The network was established to monitor local ground-water levels, to determine drought conditions, and to monitor ground-water-level trends. Drought-warning and drought-emergency water-level triggers were determined for 20 of the 23 wells in the Chester County observation-well network. A statistical test to determine either rising or declining water-level trends was performed on data for all wells in the network. Water-level data from both of these wells showed a rising trend. A decrease in ground-water pumping in the area near these wells was probably the reason for the rise in water levels.

  10. Water levels in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Tucci, P.; Goemaat, R.L.; Burkhardt, D.J.

    1996-07-01

    Water levels were monitored in 28 wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during 1993. Seventeen wells were monitored periodically, generally on a monthly basis, and 11 wells representing 18 intervals were monitored hourly. All wells monitor water levels in Tertiary volcanic rocks, except one that monitors water levels in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Water levels were measured using calibrated steel tapes and pressure transducers; steel-tape measurements were corrected for mechanical stretch, thermal expansion, and borehole deviation to obtain precise water-level altitudes. Water-level altitudes in the Tertiary volcanic rocks ranged from about 728 meters above sea level east of Yucca Mountain to about 1,034 meters above sea level north of Yucca Mountain. Water-level altitudes in the well monitoring the Paleozoic carbonate rocks varied between 752 and 753 meters above sea level during 1993. Water levels were an average of about 0.04 meter lower than 1992 water levels. All data were acquired in accordance with a quality-assurance program to support the reliability of the data.

  11. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1967-68

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bingham, R.H.

    1969-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1967-68), is the fifth in a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 2-year period of (1961-62); the second report, published in 1964, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1961-62); the third report, published in 1965, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1963-64); and the fourth report contains water-level records for

  12. Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; Houser, P.

    2012-12-01

    Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low

  13. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

  14. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model status and updates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This presentation will provide current information on the USDA-ARS Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, and its implementation by the USDA-Forest Service (FS), USDA-Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), and other agencies and universities. Most recently, the USDA-NRCS has begun ef...

  15. Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

    PubMed Central

    Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

  16. Maternal Oral Bacterial Levels Predict Early Childhood Caries Development

    PubMed Central

    Chaffee, B.W.; Gansky, S.A.; Weintraub, J.A.; Featherstone, J.D.B.; Ramos-Gomez, F.J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To calculate the association of maternal salivary bacterial challenge (mutans streptococci [MS] and lactobacilli [LB]) from pregnancy through 24 months’ postpartum with child caries incidence (≥1 cavitated or restored teeth) at 36 months. Materials & Methods: Dental, salivary bacterial, sociodemographic, and behavioral measures were collected at three- to six-month intervals from a birth cohort of low-income Hispanic mother-child dyads (N = 243). We calculated the relative child caries incidence, adjusted for confounding, following higher maternal challenge of MS (>4500 colony-forming units per milliliter of saliva [CFU/mL]) and LB (>50 CFU/mL) based on multivariable models. Results: Salivary MS and LB levels were greater among mothers of caries-affected children versus caries-free children. Mothers with higher salivary MS challenge were more likely to have MS-positive children (>0 CFU/mL), but maternal LB challenge was not a statistically significant predictor of child LB-positive status. Adjusting for sociodemographics, feeding and care practices, and maternal dental status, higher maternal salivary challenge of both MS and LB over the study period predicted nearly double the child caries incidence versus lower MS and LB (cumulative incidence ratio: 1.9; 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 3.8). Conclusion: Maternal salivary bacterial challenge not only is associated with oral infection among children but also predicts increased early childhood caries occurrence. PMID:24356441

  17. 26. Mechanical float gages used to monitor level of water ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    26. Mechanical float gages used to monitor level of water in the filtration bed reservoir. - Lake Whitney Water Filtration Plant, Filtration Plant, South side of Armory Street between Edgehill Road & Whitney Avenue, Hamden, New Haven County, CT

  18. Predicting the Distribution of Yellowfin Tuna in Philippine Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez, G. J. P.; Leonardo, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    The Philippines is considered as a major tuna producer in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, both for domestic consumption and on industrial scale. However, with the ever-increasing demand of growing population, it has always been a challenge to achieve sustainable fishing. The creation of satellite-derived potential fishing zone maps is a technology that has been adopted by advanced countries for almost three decades already and has led to reduction in search times by up to 40%. In this study, a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is developed to predict the distribution of the Yellowfin tuna species in seas surrounding the Philippines based on the Catch-Per-Unit-Effort (CPUE) index. Level 3 gridded chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) are the main input parameters of the model. Chlorophyll-a is linked with the presence of phytoplankton, which indicates primary productivity and suggests potential regions of fish aggregation. Fish also prefers to stay in regions where the temperature is stable, thus the sea surface temperature fronts serve as a guide to locate concentrations of fish school. Historical monthly tuna catch data from Western and Central Pacific Commissions (WCPFC) is used to train the model. The resulting predictions are converted to potential fishing zone maps and are evaluated within and beyond the historical time range of the training data used. Diagnostic tests involving adjusted R2 value, GAM residual plots and root mean square error value are used to assess the accuracy of the model. The generated maps were able to confirm locations of known tuna fishing grounds in Mindanao and other parts of the country, as well us detect their seasonality and interannual variability. To improve the performance of the model, ancillary data such as surface winds reanalysis from National Centers for

  19. Predicting Salmonella Populations from Biological, Chemical, and Physical Indicators in Florida Surface Waters

    PubMed Central

    McEgan, Rachel; Mootian, Gabriel; Goodridge, Lawrence D.; Schaffner, Donald W.

    2013-01-01

    Coliforms, Escherichia coli, and various physicochemical water characteristics have been suggested as indicators of microbial water quality or index organisms for pathogen populations. The relationship between the presence and/or concentration of Salmonella and biological, physical, or chemical indicators in Central Florida surface water samples over 12 consecutive months was explored. Samples were taken monthly for 12 months from 18 locations throughout Central Florida (n = 202). Air and water temperature, pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), turbidity, and conductivity were measured. Weather data were obtained from nearby weather stations. Aerobic plate counts and most probable numbers (MPN) for Salmonella, E. coli, and coliforms were performed. Weak linear relationships existed between biological indicators (E. coli/coliforms) and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1) and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1). The average rainfall (previous day, week, and month) before sampling did not correlate well with bacterial levels. Logistic regression analysis showed that E. coli concentration can predict the probability of enumerating selected Salmonella levels. The lack of good correlations between biological indicators and Salmonella levels and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels shows that the relationship between pathogens and indicators is complex. However, Escherichia coli provides a reasonable way to predict Salmonella levels in Central Florida surface water through logistic regression. PMID:23624476

  20. Predicting climate fluctuations for water management by applying neural network

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, E.Y.

    1996-12-31

    The ability to forecast climate fluctuations would be a valuable asset to regional water management authorities such as the South Florida Water Management District. These forecasts may provide advanced warnings of possible extended periods of deficits or surpluses of water availability allowing better regional water management for flood protection, water supply, and environmental enhancement. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to have a global perspective of the oceanic and atmospheric phenomena which may affect regional water resources. However, the complexity involved may hinder traditional analytical approaches in forecasting because such approaches are based on many simplified assumptions about the natural phenomena. This paper investigates the applicability of neural networks in climate forecasting for regional water resources management. This paper applies the most widely used Back Propagation model to the climate forecasting. In this study, issues such as selecting a best fit neural network configuration, deploying a proper training algorithm, and preprocessing input data are addressed. The effects of various global oceanic and atmospheric variables to the regional water resources are also discussed. The study is focused on the prediction of water storage for Lake Okeechobee, the liquid heart for south Florida. Several global weather parameters over the past several decades are used as input data for training and testing. Different combinations of the variables are explored. Preliminary results show that the neural networks are promising tools in this type of forecasting.

  1. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1965-66

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hart, D.L., Jr.

    1967-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1965-66), is the fourth in a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 2-year period of (1961-62); the second report, published in 1964, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1961-62); and the third report, published in 1965, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1963-64). (available as photostat copy only)

  2. Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

    2015-01-01

    Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and

  3. Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and

  4. Predicting Risk from Radon in Source Waters from Water Quality Parameters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Overall, 47 groundwater samples were collected from 45 small community water systems (CWSs) and analyzed for radon and other water quality constituents. In general, groundwater from unconsolidated deposits and sedimentary rocks had lower average radon levels (ranging from 223 to...

  5. Water level, specific conductance, and water temperature data, San Francisco Bay, California, for Water Year 2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buchanan, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    Time series of water-level, specific-conductance, and watertemperature data were collected at seven sites in San Francisco Bay during water year 2000 (October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000). Water-level data were recorded only at Point San Pablo. Specific-conductance and water-temperature data were recorded at 15-minute intervals at the following locations (Figure 1): • Carquinez Strait at Carquinez Bridge • Napa River at Mare Island Causeway near Vallejo • San Pablo Bay at Petaluma River Channel Marker 9 • San Pablo Strait at Point San Pablo • Central San Francisco Bay at Presidio Military Reservation • Central San Francisco Bay at Pier 24 • South San Francisco Bay at San Mateo Bridge near Foster City.

  6. Ground-water levels and quality data for Georgia, 1978

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clarke, J.S.; Hester, W.G.; O'Byrne, M. P.

    1979-01-01

    Mean water levels in wells across Georgia were from 0.25 foot higher to 11.4 feet lower in 1978 than in 1977, and in some areas were the lowest on record. Water levels in the principal artesian aquifer underwent a long-term decline during the period 1969-78. In some areas water levels dropped more than 10 feet. Wells tapping the Clayton Limestone in the Albany area showed a long-term decline during the period 1969-78, and in some wells water levels dropped more than 20 feet. Water levels in the Cretaceous aquifer system showed little fluctuation during 1978; however, in a well located in Chattahoochee County, water levels declined 4.4 feet during 1969-78. In the Piedmont area mean water levels remained the same to 2.2 feet lower in 1978 than in 1977, and showed no long-term trend. Chloride concentrations in the principal artesian aquifer in the Savannah area remained stable and in the Brunswick area continued to rise during 1978. Daily mean water-level fluctuations and trends for 1978 and fluctuations of the monthly mean water level for the previous 10 years are shown in hydrographs of 33 selected observation wells in Georgia. Chloride concentrations in 11 wells in the Savannah and Brunswick areas are shown in graphs of monthly values over the previous 10 years. A short narrative explains fluctuations and trends in each of the hydrographs and chloride concentration graphs shown. (Woodard-USGS)

  7. A multivariate linear regression model for predicting children's blood lead levels based on soil lead levels: A study at four Superfund sites

    SciTech Connect

    Lewin, M.D.; Sarasua, S.; Jones, P.A. . Div. of Health Studies)

    1999-07-01

    For the purpose of examining the association between blood lead levels and household-specific soil lead levels, the authors used a multivariate linear regression model to find a slope factor relating soil lead levels to blood lead levels. They used previously collected data from the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) multisite lead and cadmium study. The data included in the blood lead measurements of 1,015 children aged 6--71 months, and corresponding household-specific environmental samples. The environmental samples included lead in soil, house dust, interior paint, and tap water. After adjusting for income, education or the parents, presence of a smoker in the household, sex, and dust lead, and using a double log transformation, they found a slope factor of 0.1388 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.09--0.19 for the dose-response relationship between the natural log of the soil lead level and the natural log of the blood lead level. The predicted blood lead level corresponding to a soil lead level of 500 mg/kg was 5.99 [micro]g/kg with a 95% prediction interval of 2.08--17.29. Predicted values and their corresponding prediction intervals varied by covariate level. The model shows that increased soil lead level is associated with elevated blood leads in children, but that predictions based on this regression model are subject to high levels of uncertainty and variability.

  8. Accurate predictions for the production of vaporized water

    SciTech Connect

    Morin, E.; Montel, F.

    1995-12-31

    The production of water vaporized in the gas phase is controlled by the local conditions around the wellbore. The pressure gradient applied to the formation creates a sharp increase of the molar water content in the hydrocarbon phase approaching the well; this leads to a drop in the pore water saturation around the wellbore. The extent of the dehydrated zone which is formed is the key controlling the bottom-hole content of vaporized water. The maximum water content in the hydrocarbon phase at a given pressure, temperature and salinity is corrected by capillarity or adsorption phenomena depending on the actual water saturation. Describing the mass transfer of the water between the hydrocarbon phases and the aqueous phase into the tubing gives a clear idea of vaporization effects on the formation of scales. Field example are presented for gas fields with temperatures ranging between 140{degrees}C and 180{degrees}C, where water vaporization effects are significant. Conditions for salt plugging in the tubing are predicted.

  9. Predicting tree water use and drought tolerance from leaf traits in the Los Angeles urban ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, G. P.; Scoffoni, C.; Sack, L.

    2013-12-01

    Urban green space provides a suite of valuable ecosystem services. In semiarid systems, like Los Angeles, trees rely primarily on irrigation water for transpiration. Managers may need to reduce irrigation associated with urban trees given climate change, urban expansion, and the steady decrease in available freshwater. While leaf and whole plant water relations have been extensively studied, we are only now gaining a detailed understanding of diverse leaf anatomical designs, and their use for predicting physiology and water use at landscape scale. For 50 diverse urban species, we quantified leaf anatomical and physiological traits important to tree drought tolerance and water use efficiency including turgor loss point, vein architecture, cellular anatomy, leaf mass per unit area, and petiole and leaf dimensions. We hypothesized detailed relationships to develop models relating leaf functional traits to tree water relations. These models provide key insights regarding the role of anatomical designs in leaf stress tolerance and water use efficiency. Additionally we predicted how traits measured at the leaf level would scale with existing data for individuals at the whole plant level. We tested our predictions by determining correlations between leaf level anatomical traits and drought tolerance. Additionally, we determined correlations between functional traits, physiology and water use, and the climate of origin for the urban species. Leaf level measurements will be valuable for rapid estimation of more difficult to measure whole plant water relations traits important at the landscape scale. The Los Angeles urban ecosystem can serve as a model for other semiarid system and provide more informed system wide water conservation strategies.

  10. Predicting and mapping soil available water capacity in Korea.

    PubMed

    Hong, Suk Young; Minasny, Budiman; Han, Kyung Hwa; Kim, Yihyun; Lee, Kyungdo

    2013-01-01

    The knowledge on the spatial distribution of soil available water capacity at a regional or national extent is essential, as soil water capacity is a component of the water and energy balances in the terrestrial ecosystem. It controls the evapotranspiration rate, and has a major impact on climate. This paper demonstrates a protocol for mapping soil available water capacity in South Korea at a fine scale using data available from surveys. The procedures combined digital soil mapping technology with the available soil map of 1:25,000. We used the modal profile data from the Taxonomical Classification of Korean Soils. The data consist of profile description along with physical and chemical analysis for the modal profiles of the 380 soil series. However not all soil samples have measured bulk density and water content at -10 and -1500 kPa. Thus they need to be predicted using pedotransfer functions. Furthermore, water content at -10 kPa was measured using ground samples. Thus a correction factor is derived to take into account the effect of bulk density. Results showed that Andisols has the highest mean water storage capacity, followed by Entisols and Inceptisols which have loamy texture. The lowest water retention is Entisols which are dominated by sandy materials. Profile available water capacity to a depth of 1 m was calculated and mapped for Korea. The western part of the country shows higher available water capacity than the eastern part which is mountainous and has shallower soils. The highest water storage capacity soils are the Ultisols and Alfisols (mean of 206 and 205 mm, respectively). Validation of the maps showed promising results. The map produced can be used as an indication of soil physical quality of Korean soils. PMID:23646290

  11. Predicting and mapping soil available water capacity in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Suk Young; Han, Kyung Hwa; Kim, Yihyun; Lee, Kyungdo

    2013-01-01

    The knowledge on the spatial distribution of soil available water capacity at a regional or national extent is essential, as soil water capacity is a component of the water and energy balances in the terrestrial ecosystem. It controls the evapotranspiration rate, and has a major impact on climate. This paper demonstrates a protocol for mapping soil available water capacity in South Korea at a fine scale using data available from surveys. The procedures combined digital soil mapping technology with the available soil map of 1:25,000. We used the modal profile data from the Taxonomical Classification of Korean Soils. The data consist of profile description along with physical and chemical analysis for the modal profiles of the 380 soil series. However not all soil samples have measured bulk density and water content at −10 and −1500 kPa. Thus they need to be predicted using pedotransfer functions. Furthermore, water content at −10 kPa was measured using ground samples. Thus a correction factor is derived to take into account the effect of bulk density. Results showed that Andisols has the highest mean water storage capacity, followed by Entisols and Inceptisols which have loamy texture. The lowest water retention is Entisols which are dominated by sandy materials. Profile available water capacity to a depth of 1 m was calculated and mapped for Korea. The western part of the country shows higher available water capacity than the eastern part which is mountainous and has shallower soils. The highest water storage capacity soils are the Ultisols and Alfisols (mean of 206 and 205 mm, respectively). Validation of the maps showed promising results. The map produced can be used as an indication of soil physical quality of Korean soils. PMID:23646290

  12. Prediction of water intake and excretion flows in Holstein dairy cows under thermoneutral conditions.

    PubMed

    Khelil-Arfa, H; Boudon, A; Maxin, G; Faverdin, P

    2012-10-01

    The increase in the worldwide demand for dairy products, associated with global warming, will emphasize the issue of water use efficiency in dairy systems. The evaluation of environmental issues related to the management of animal dejections will also require precise biotechnical models that can predict effluent management in farms. In this study, equations were developed and evaluated for predicting the main water flows at the dairy cow level, based on parameters related to cow productive performance and diet under thermoneutral conditions. Two datasets were gathered. The first one comprised 342 individual measurements of water balance in dairy cows obtained during 18 trials at the experimental farm of Méjussaume (INRA, France). Predictive equations of water intake, urine and fecal water excretion were developed by multiple regression using a stepwise selection of regressors from a list of seven candidate parameters, which were milk yield, dry matter intake (DMI), body weight, diet dry matter content (DM), proportion of concentrate (CONC) and content of crude protein (CP) ingested with forage and concentrate (CPf and CPc, g/kg DM). The second dataset was used for external validation of the developed equations and comprised 196 water flow measurements on experimental lots obtained from 43 published papers related to water balance or digestibility measurements in dairy cows. Although DMI was the first predictor of the total water intake (TWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.51, DM was the first predictive parameter of free water intake (FWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.57, likely due to the large variability of DM in the first dataset (from 11.5 to 91.4 g/100 g). This confirmed the compensation between water drunk and ingested with diet when DM changes. The variability of urine volume was explained mainly by the CPf associated with DMI (r.s.d. 5.4 kg/day for an average flow of 24.0 kg/day) and that of fecal water was explained by the proportion of CONC in the diet and DMI

  13. Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending

    PubMed Central

    Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

    2015-01-01

    Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample’s own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience’s potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior. PMID:26187248

  14. A siphon gage for monitoring surface-water levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCobb, T.D.; LeBlanc, D.R.; Socolow, R.S.

    1999-01-01

    A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold regions cause discontinuity and inaccuracy in the data collected. Installation and field testing of a siphon gage using 0.75-in-diameter polyethylene tubing at Ashumet Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, demonstrated that the siphon gage can provide long-term data with a field effort and accuracy equivalent to measurement of ground-water levels at an observation well.A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold

  15. Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

    SciTech Connect

    Spane, Frank A.

    1999-12-16

    This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate baro-metric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

  16. Specific conductance, water temperature, and water level data, San Francisco Bay, California, water year 1998

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buchanan, Paul A.

    1999-01-01

    Specific conductance and water temperature data are continuously recorded at four sites in San Francisco Bay, California: San Pablo Strait at Point San Pablo, Central San Francisco Bay at Presidio Military Reservation, Pier 24 at Bay Bridge, and South San Francisco Bay at San Mateo Bridge near Foster City (Figure 1). Water level data are recorded only at San Pablo Strait at Point San Pablo. These data were recorded by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) before 1988, by the US Geological Survey (USGS) National Research Program from 1988 to 1989, and by the USGS-DWR cooperative program since 1990. This article presents time-series plots of data from the four sites in San Francisco Bay during water year 1998 (1 October 1997 through 30 September 1998).

  17. Prediction of the safety level to an installation of the tritium process through predictive maintenance

    SciTech Connect

    Anghel, V.

    2008-07-15

    The safety level for personnel and environment to a nuclear installation is given in generally by the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and in particular by a lot of technical, technological, economic and human factors. The maintenance role is fundamental because it has to quantify all the technical, economic and human elements as an integrated system for it creates an important feedback for activities concerning the life cycle of the nuclear installation. In maintenance activities as in any dynamic area, new elements appear continuously which, sometimes require new approaches. The theory of fuzzy logic and the software LabVIEW supplied to the Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) is part of National Research and Development Inst. for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies-ICIT, Rm.Valcea, used for predictive maintenance to assure safety operation. The final aim is to achieve the best practices for maintenance of the Plant that processes tritium. (authors)

  18. Link prediction in the network of global virtual water trade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Through the international food-trade, water resources are 'virtually' transferred from the country of production to the country of consumption. The international food-trade, thus, implies a network of virtual water flows from exporting to importing countries (i.e., nodes). Given the dynamical behavior of the network, where food-trade relations (i.e., links) are created and dismissed every year, link prediction becomes a challenge. In this study, we propose a novel methodology for link prediction in the virtual water network. The model aims at identifying the main factors (among 17 different variables) driving the creation of a food-trade relation between any two countries, along the period between 1986 and 2011. Furthermore, the model can be exploited to investigate the network configuration in the future, under different possible (climatic and demographic) scenarios. The model grounds the existence of a link between any two nodes on the link weight (i.e., the virtual water flow): a link exists when the nodes exchange a minimum (fixed) volume of virtual water. Starting from a set of potential links between any two nodes, we fit the associated virtual water flows (both the real and the null ones) by means of multivariate linear regressions. Then, links with estimated flows higher than a minimum value (i.e., threshold) are considered active-links, while the others are non-active ones. The discrimination between active and non-active links through the threshold introduces an error (called link-prediction error) because some real links are lost (i.e., missed links) and some non-existing links (i.e., spurious links) are inevitably introduced in the network. The major drivers are those significantly minimizing the link-prediction error. Once the structure of the unweighted virtual water network is known, we apply, again, linear regressions to assess the major factors driving the fluxes traded along (modelled) active-links. Results indicate that, on the one hand

  19. Evaluating a microbial water quality prediction model for beach management under the revised EU Bathing Water Directive.

    PubMed

    Bedri, Zeinab; Corkery, Aisling; O'Sullivan, John J; Deering, Louise A; Demeter, Katalin; Meijer, Wim G; O'Hare, Gregory; Masterson, Bartholomew

    2016-02-01

    The revised Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) requires EU member states to minimise the risk to public health from faecal pollution at bathing waters through improved monitoring and management approaches. While increasingly sophisticated measurement methods (such as microbial source tracking) assist in the management of bathing water resources, the use of deterministic predictive models for this purpose, while having the potential to provide decision making support, remains less common. This study explores an integrated, deterministic catchment-coastal hydro-environmental model as a decision-making tool for beach management which, based on advance predictions of bathing water quality, can inform beach managers on appropriate management actions (to prohibit bathing or advise the public not to bathe) in the event of a poor water quality forecast. The model provides a 'moving window' five-day forecast of Escherichia coli levels at a bathing water compliance point off the Irish coast and the accuracy of bathing water management decisions were investigated for model predictions under two scenarios over the period from the 11th August to the 5th September, 2012. Decisions for Scenario 1 were based on model predictions where rainfall forecasts from a meteorological source (www.yr.no) were used to drive the rainfall-runoff processes in the catchment component of the model, and for Scenario 2, were based on predictions that were improved by incorporating real-time rainfall data from a sensor network within the catchment into the forecasted meteorological input data. The accuracy of the model in the decision-making process was assessed using the contingency table and its metrics. The predictive model gave reasonable outputs to support appropriate decision making for public health protection. Scenario 1 provided real-time predictions that, on 77% of instances during the study period where both predicted and E. coli concentrations were available, would correctly inform a

  20. Statistical and Biophysical Models for Predicting Total and Outdoor Water Use in Los Angeles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2012-04-01

    Modeling water demand is a complex exercise in the choice of the functional form, techniques and variables to integrate in the model. The goal of the current research is to identify the determinants that control total and outdoor residential water use in semi-arid cities and to utilize that information in the development of statistical and biophysical models that can forecast spatial and temporal urban water use. The City of Los Angeles is unique in its highly diverse socio-demographic, economic and cultural characteristics across neighborhoods, which introduces significant challenges in modeling water use. Increasing climate variability also contributes to uncertainties in water use predictions in urban areas. Monthly individual water use records were acquired from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for the 2000 to 2010 period. Study predictors of residential water use include socio-demographic, economic, climate and landscaping variables at the zip code level collected from US Census database. Climate variables are estimated from ground-based observations and calculated at the centroid of each zip code by inverse-distance weighting method. Remotely-sensed products of vegetation biomass and landscape land cover are also utilized. Two linear regression models were developed based on the panel data and variables described: a pooled-OLS regression model and a linear mixed effects model. Both models show income per capita and the percentage of landscape areas in each zip code as being statistically significant predictors. The pooled-OLS model tends to over-estimate higher water use zip codes and both models provide similar RMSE values.Outdoor water use was estimated at the census tract level as the residual between total water use and indoor use. This residual is being compared with the output from a biophysical model including tree and grass cover areas, climate variables and estimates of evapotranspiration at very high spatial resolution. A

  1. Prediction of drinking water intake by dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Appuhamy, J A D R N; Judy, J V; Kebreab, E; Kononoff, P J

    2016-09-01

    Mathematical models that predict water intake by drinking, also known as free water intake (FWI), are useful in understanding water supply needed by animals on dairy farms. The majority of extant mathematical models for predicting FWI of dairy cows have been developed with data sets representing similar experimental conditions, not evaluated with modern cows, and often require dry matter intake (DMI) data, which may not be routinely available. The objectives of the study were to (1) develop a set of new empirical models for predicting FWI of lactating and dry cows with and without DMI using literature data, and (2) evaluate the new and the extant models using an independent set of FWI measurements made on modern cows. Random effect meta-regression analyses were conducted using 72 and 188 FWI treatment means with and without dietary electrolyte and daily mean ambient temperature (TMP) records, respectively, for lactating cows, and 19 FWI treatment means for dry cows. Milk yield, DMI, body weight, days in milk, dietary macro-nutrient contents, an aggregate milliequivalent concentration of dietary sodium and potassium (NaK), and TMP were used as potential covariates to the models. A model having positive relationships of DMI, dietary dry matter (DM%), and CP (CP%) contents, NaK, and TMP explained 76% of variability in FWI treatment means of lactating cows. When challenged on an independent data set (n=261), the model more accurately predicted FWI [root mean square prediction error as a percentage of average observed value (RMSPE%)=14.4%] compared with a model developed without NaK and TMP (RMSPE%=17.3%), and all extant models (RMSPE%≥15.7%). A model without DMI included positive relationships of milk yield, DM%, NaK, TMP, and days in milk, and explained 63% of variability in the FWI treatment means and performed well (RMSPE%=17.9%), when challenged on the independent data. New models for dry cows included positive relationships of DM% and TMP along with DMI or body

  2. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1971-74

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goemaat, Robert L.

    1976-01-01

    The objectives of the observation-well program are (1) to provide long-term records of water-level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the prediction of water-level trends and indicate the future availability of ground-water supplies, and (3) to provide information for use in basic research. These selected records serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data may be related. The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those of the U.S. Geological Survey.

  3. Predictive model for chloroform during disinfection of water for consumption, city of Montevideo.

    PubMed

    Gomez Camponovo, Mariana; Seoane Muniz, Gustavo; Rothenberg, Stephen J; Umpiérrez Vazquez, Eleuterio; Achkar Borras, Marcel

    2014-10-01

    The objective of this study was to predict chloroform formation resulting from the process of disinfecting water, particularly trihalomethane which is most frequently produced. A statistical model was used which included repeated measurements of water parameters used for monitoring water quality at 51 sites covering the municipal water system of Montevideo. Samples were taken considering different seasons from June 2009 to July 2011 in Montevideo. Total samples (n = 330) were analytically studied using the headspace-gas chromatography method coupled with mass spectrometry. Chloroform was the dependent variable and the covariables were pH, temperature, free chlorine, and total chlorine. A Tobit analysis with an unstructured correlation matrix was performed, and a significant interaction was found between pH and free chlorine for the prediction of chloroform formation. We concluded that parameters for the continuous control of water quality for consumption can be used to predict the levels of chloroform that may be present. Given the large measurement to variability found in the repeated measurements, the use of averages that include more than one season is not recommended to determine the degree of compliance with acceptable levels established by norms. PMID:24981876

  4. Quantification of umu genotoxicity level of urban river water.

    PubMed

    Kameya, T; Nagato, T; Nakagawa, K; Yamashita, D; Kobayashi, T; Fujie, K

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the request of environmental safety management for carcinogenic substances, mutagenic substances and/or reproductive toxicity substances (CMR) has increased. This study focused on clarifying the genotoxicity level of environmental water and its release source by using the umu test provided in ISO13829. Although a genotoxicity index "induction ratio (IR)" is used in ISO13829, we normalised it to make it possible to compare various environmental water quantitatively to each other as a new index "genotoxic activity (GA=(IR-1)/Dose)". Sample water was collected and concentrated to 100 times or 1,000 times by a solid phase extraction method. As the test results, it was found that GA level in actual river water varied widely from less than the determination limit of 23 [1/L] to 1,100 [1/L] by quantitative comparison, and the value was also equivalent to more than 50 times the level of tap water. The GA level of household wastewater was not so high, but the levels of treated water from wastewater treatment plant (WTP) were from 220 [1/L] to 3,200 [1/L]. Raw sewage of some WTP shows high level genotoxicity. A part of genotoxicity substances, for example 50%, could be removed by conventional wastewater treatment, but it was not enough to reduce the water environmental load of genotoxicity. PMID:21278461

  5. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Griffith, Simon C.

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival. PMID:25279258

  6. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood.

    PubMed

    McCowan, Luke S C; Griffith, Simon C

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual's entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual's future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival. PMID:25279258

  7. Towards risk-based drought management in the Netherlands: making water supply levels transparent to water users

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maat Judith, Ter; Marjolein, Mens; Vuren Saskia, Van; der Vat Marnix, Van

    2016-04-01

    To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, assessed the impact of climate change and socio-economic development, and explored strategies to deal with these impacts. The Programme initiated a joint approach to water supply management with stakeholders and developed a national adaptation plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions. The adaptation plan consists of a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of possible actions and measures through time - to achieve targets while responding in a flexible manner to uncertain developments over time, allowing room to respond to new opportunities and insights. With regard to fresh water allocation, the Delta Programme stated that supplying water of sufficient quality is a shared responsibility that requires cohesive efforts among users in the main and regional water system. The national and local authorities and water users involved agreed that the water availability and, where relevant, the water quality should be as transparent and predictable as possible under normal, dry and extremely dry conditions. They therefore introduced the concept of "water supply service levels", which should describe water availability and quality that can be delivered with a certain return period, for all regions and all relevant water users in the Netherlands. The service levels form an addition to the present policy and should be decided on by 2021. At present water allocation during periods of (expected) water shortage occurs according to a prearranged ranking system (a water hierarchy scheme based on a list of priorities), if water availability drops below a critical low level. The aim is to have supply levels available that are based on the probability of occurrence and economic impact of water shortage, and that are transparent for all water users in the regional water systems and the main water system. As part of the European project

  8. Multiscale Model Predicts Tissue-Level Failure From Collagen Fiber-Level Damage

    PubMed Central

    Hadi, Mohammad F.; Sander, Edward A.; Barocas, Victor H.

    2013-01-01

    Excessive tissue-level forces communicated to the microstructure and extracellular matrix of soft tissues can lead to damage and failure through poorly understood physical processes that are multiscale in nature. In this work, we propose a multiscale mechanical model for the failure of collagenous soft tissues that incorporates spatial heterogeneity in the microstructure and links the failure of discrete collagen fibers to the material response of the tissue. The model, which is based on experimental failure data derived from different collagen gel geometries, was able to predict the mechanical response and failure of type I collagen gels, and it demonstrated that a fiber-based rule (at the micrometer scale) for discrete failure can strongly shape the macroscale failure response of the gel (at the millimeter scale). The model may be a useful tool in predicting the macroscale failure conditions for soft tissues and engineered tissue analogs. In addition, the multiscale model provides a framework for the study of failure in complex fiber-based mechanical systems in general. PMID:22938372

  9. Relationships among gender, cognitive style, academic major, and performance on the Piaget water-level task.

    PubMed

    Hammer, R E; Hoffer, N; King, W L

    1995-06-01

    Many researchers have found that more college-age adults than would be expected fail Piaget's water-level task, with women failing more frequently than men. It has been hypothesized that differences in cognitive style may account for performance differences on the water-level task. In the present study, 27 male and 27 female architectural students and 27 male and 27 female liberal-arts students were assessed for their performance on both Piaget's Water-level Task and Witkin's Group Embedded Figures Test. No difference was found in performance of male and female architectural students on either task, but male liberal-arts students scored significantly higher than female liberal-arts students on both measures. A disembedding cognitive style predicted success on the water-level task for the architectural students but not for the liberal arts students. PMID:7567394

  10. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A.; Abera, Metadel K.; Fanta, Solomon W.; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-01

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus × domestica Borkh. cv. ‘Jonagold’) during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick’s second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell’s rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range ( > 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical

  11. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model.

    PubMed

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A; Abera, Metadel K; Fanta, Solomon W; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-19

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus × domestica Borkh. cv. 'Jonagold') during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick's second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell's rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range ( > 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical deformation

  12. Predicting recreational water quality advisories: A comparison of statistical methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fienen, Michael N.; Carvin, Rebecca B.

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies indicate that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water are associated with illnesses among people having contact with the water. In order to mitigate public health impacts, many beaches are posted with an advisory when the concentration of FIB exceeds a beach action value. The most commonly used method of measuring FIB concentration takes 18–24 h before returning a result. In order to avoid the 24 h lag, it has become common to ”nowcast” the FIB concentration using statistical regressions on environmental surrogate variables. Most commonly, nowcast models are estimated using ordinary least squares regression, but other regression methods from the statistical and machine learning literature are sometimes used. This study compares 14 regression methods across 7 Wisconsin beaches to identify which consistently produces the most accurate predictions. A random forest model is identified as the most accurate, followed by multiple regression fit using the adaptive LASSO.

  13. Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further

  14. 8. General view of movable span from water level, showing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    8. General view of movable span from water level, showing piers turntable, movable span, parts of west land span and east viaduct. VIEW NORTHEAST - Broadway Bridge, Spanning Foundry Street, MBTA Yard, Fort Point Channel, & Lehigh Street, Boston, Suffolk County, MA

  15. 1. East side of lower dam shown with water level ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. East side of lower dam shown with water level dropped. VIEW WEST - Loleta Recreation Area, Lower Dam, 6 miles Southeast of interesection of State Route 24041 & State Route 66, Loleta, Elk County, PA

  16. Predicting team output using indices at group level.

    PubMed

    Andrés, Amara; Salafranca, Lluís; Solanas, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    The present study explores the usefulness of dyadic quantification of group characteristics to predict team work performance. After reviewing the literature regarding team member characteristics predicting group performance, percentages of explained variance between 3% and 18% were found. These studies have followed an individualistic approach to measure group characteristics (e. g., mean and variance), based on aggregation. The aim of the present work was testing whether by means of dyadic measures group output prediction percentage could be increased. The basis of dyadic measures is data obtained from an interdependent pairs of individuals. Specifically, the present research was intended to develop a new dyadic index to measure personality dissimilarity in groups and to explore whether dyadic measurements allow improving groups' outcome predictions compared to individualistic methods. By means of linear regression, 49.5 % of group performance variance was explained using the skew-symmetry and the proposed dissimilarity index in personality as predictors. These results support the usefulness of the dyadic approach for predicting group outcomes. PMID:22059323

  17. Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

    2010-11-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks. PMID:20089946

  18. Effects of Barometric Fluctuations on Well Water-Level Measurements and Aquifer Test Data

    SciTech Connect

    FA Spane, Jr.

    1999-12-16

    The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, as part of the Hanford Groundwater Monitoring Project, examines the potential for offsite migration of contamination within underlying aquifer systems. Well water-level elevation measurements from selected wells within these aquifer systems commonly form the basis for delineating groundwater-flow patterns (i.e., flow direction and hydraulic gradient). In addition, the analysis of water-level responses obtained in wells during hydrologic tests provides estimates of hydraulic properties that are important for evaluating groundwater-flow velocity and transport characteristics. Barometric pressure fluctuations, however, can have a discernible impact on well water-level measurements. These barometric effects may lead to erroneous indications of hydraulic head within the aquifer. Total hydraulic head (i.e., sum of the water-table elevation and the atmospheric pressure at the water-table surface) within the aquifer, not well water-level elevation, is the hydrologic parameter for determining groundwater-flow direction and hydraulic gradient conditions. Temporal variations in barometric pressure may also adversely affect well water-level responses obtained during hydrologic tests. If significant, adjustments or removal of these barometric effects from the test-response record may be required for quantitative hydraulic property determination. This report examines the effects of barometric fluctuations on well water-level measurements and evaluates adjustment and removal methods for determining areal aquifer head conditions and aquifer test analysis. Two examples of Hanford Site unconfined aquifer tests are examined that demonstrate barometric response analysis and illustrate the predictive/removal capabilities of various methods for well water-level and aquifer total head values. Good predictive/removal characteristics were demonstrated with best corrective results provided by multiple-regression deconvolution methods.

  19. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  20. Predicting the intracellular water compartment using artificial neural network analysis.

    PubMed

    Mohamed, E I; Maiolo, C; Linder, R; Pöppl, S J; De Lorenzo, A

    2003-10-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANN) are used for a wide variety of data-processing applications such as predicting medical outcomes and classifying clinical data and patients. We investigated the applicability of an ANN for estimating the intracellular water compartment for a population of 104 healthy Italians ranging in age from 19 to 68 years. Anthropometric variables, bioelectric impedance analysis (BIA) variables, and reference values for intracellular water, measured using whole-body (40)K counting (ICW(K40)), were measured for all study participants. The anthropometric variables and the impedance index (height(2)/resistance) were fed to the ANN input layer, which produced as output the estimated values for intracellular water (ICW(ANN)). We also estimated intracellular water using a BIA formula for the same population (ICW(DeLorenzo)) and another for Caucasians (ICW(Gudivaka)). Errors in the estimations generated by ANN and the BIA equations were calculated as the root mean square error (RMSE). The mean (+/-SD) reference value (ICWK40) was 25.01+/-4.50 l, whereas the mean estimated value was 15.20+/-1.79 l (RMSE=11.06 l) when calculated using ICW(DeLorenzo), 18.07+/-1.14 l (RMSE=8.72 l) when using ICW(Gudivaka), and 25.01+/-2.74 l (RMSE=3.22 l) when using ICW(ANN). Based on these results, we deduce that the ANN algorithm is a more accurate predictor for reference ICW(K40) than BIA equations. PMID:14618426

  1. Ground-water levels in Arkansas, spring 1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edds, Joe

    1983-01-01

    About 640 ground-water level measurements were made in observation wells in Arkansas in the spring of 1981. In addition , the report contains potentiometric-surface maps and well hydrographs relating to the alluvial aquifer and the Sparta Sand , the most important aquifers with respect to ground-water availability and use in Arkansas. (USGS)

  2. Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and

  3. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    PubMed Central

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  4. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  5. Groundwater level prediction using a SOM-aided stepwise cluster inference model.

    PubMed

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Yuefei; Li, Zhong; Zhao, Chunhong; Cheng, Guanhui; Huang, Pengfei

    2016-11-01

    Accurate groundwater level (GWL) prediction can contribute to sustaining reliable water supply to domestic, agricultural and industrial uses as well as ecological services, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. In this paper, a regional GWL modeling framework was first presented through coupling both spatial and temporal clustering techniques. Specifically, the self-organizing map (SOM) was applied to identify spatially homogeneous clusters of GWL piezometers, while GWL time series forecasting was performed through developing a stepwise cluster multisite inference model with various predictors including climate conditions, well extractions, surface runoffs, reservoir operations and GWL measurements at previous steps. The proposed modeling approach was then demonstrated by a case of an arid irrigation district in the western Hexi Corridor, northwest China. Spatial clustering analysis identified 6 regionally representative central piezometers out of 30, for which sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were carried out regarding GWL predictions. As the stepwise cluster tree provided uncertain predictions, we added an AR(1) error model to the mean prediction to forecast GWL 1 month ahead. Model performance indicators suggest that the modeling system is a useful tool to aid decision-making for informed groundwater resource management in arid areas, and would have a great potential to extend its applications to more areas or regions in the future. PMID:27494607

  6. Predicting Change in Eelgrass Distribution Due to Sea Level Rise

    EPA Science Inventory

    The eelgrass species Zostera marina is the dominant estuarine seagrass on the Pacific Northwest coast of North America and provides important ecosystem services and functions. The loss of eelgrass bed acreage due to environmental pressures is of world-wide concern, yet predicted ...

  7. Temporal transferability and updating of zonal level accident prediction models.

    PubMed

    Hadayeghi, Alireza; Shalaby, Amer S; Persaud, Bhagwant N; Cheung, Carl

    2006-05-01

    This paper examines the temporal transferability of the zonal accident prediction models by using appropriate evaluation measures of predictive performance to assess whether the relationship between the dependent and independent variables holds reasonably well across time. The two temporal contexts are the years 1996 and 2001, with updated 1996 models being used to predict 2001 accidents in each traffic zone of the City of Toronto. The paper examines alternative updating methods for temporal transfer by imagining that only a sample of 2001 data is available. The sensitivity of the performance of the updated models to the 2001 sample size is explored. The updating procedures examined include the Bayesian updating approach and the application of calibration factors to the 1996 models. Models calibrated for the 2001 samples were also explored, but were found to be inadequate. The results show that the models are not transferable in a strict statistical sense. However, relative measures of transferability indicate that the transferred models yield useful information in the application context. Also, it is concluded that the updated accident models using the calibration factors produce better results for predicting the number of accidents in the year 2001 than using the Bayesian approach. PMID:16414003

  8. Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

    2013-07-01

    The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

  9. Prediction of functional residues in water channels and related proteins.

    PubMed Central

    Froger, A.; Tallur, B.; Thomas, D.; Delamarche, C.

    1998-01-01

    In this paper, we present an updated classification of the ubiquitous MIP (Major Intrinsic Protein) family proteins, including 153 fully or partially sequenced members available in public databases. Presently, about 30 of these proteins have been functionally characterized, exhibiting essentially two distinct types of channel properties: (1) specific water transport by the aquaporins, and (2) small neutral solutes transport, such as glycerol by the glycerol facilitators. Sequence alignments were used to predict amino acids and motifs discriminant in channel specificity. The protein sequences were also analyzed using statistical tools (comparisons of means and correspondence analysis). Five key positions were clearly identified where the residues are specific for each functional subgroup and exhibit high dissimilar physico-chemical properties. Moreover, we have found that the putative channels for small neutral solutes clearly differ from the aquaporins by the amino acid content and the length of predicted loop regions, suggesting a substrate filter function for these loops. From these results, we propose a signature pattern for water transport. PMID:9655351

  10. Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

    2015-03-01

    Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

  11. Prediction of pore-water pressure response to rainfall using support vector regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babangida, Nuraddeen Muhammad; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Yusuf, Khamaruzaman Wan; Isa, Mohamed Hasnain

    2016-05-01

    Nonlinear complex behavior of pore-water pressure responses to rainfall was modelled using support vector regression (SVR). Pore-water pressure can rise to disturbing levels that may result in slope failure during or after rainfall. Traditionally, monitoring slope pore-water pressure responses to rainfall is tedious and expensive, in that the slope must be instrumented with necessary monitors. Data on rainfall and corresponding responses of pore-water pressure were collected from such a monitoring program at a slope site in Malaysia and used to develop SVR models to predict pore-water pressure fluctuations. Three models, based on their different input configurations, were developed. SVR optimum meta-parameters were obtained using k-fold cross validation and a grid search. Model type 3 was adjudged the best among the models and was used to predict three other points on the slope. For each point, lag intervals of 30 min, 1 h and 2 h were used to make the predictions. The SVR model predictions were compared with predictions made by an artificial neural network model; overall, the SVR model showed slightly better results. Uncertainty quantification analysis was also performed for further model assessment. The uncertainty components were found to be low and tolerable, with d-factor of 0.14 and 74 % of observed data falling within the 95 % confidence bound. The study demonstrated that the SVR model is effective in providing an accurate and quick means of obtaining pore-water pressure response, which may be vital in systems where response information is urgently needed.

  12. Data assimilation in optimizing and integrating soil and water quality water model predictions at different scales

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Relevant data about subsurface water flow and solute transport at relatively large scales that are of interest to the public are inherently laborious and in most cases simply impossible to obtain. Upscaling in which fine-scale models and data are used to predict changes at the coarser scales is the...

  13. Prediction of water surface elevation of Great Salt Lake using Support Vector Machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, N. K.; Urroz, G.

    2009-12-01

    Record breaking rises of Great Salt Lake (GSL) water levels that were observed in the period 1982-1987 resulted in severe economic impact to the State of Utah. Rising lake levels caused flooding that damaged highways, railways, recreation facilities and industries located in exposed lake bed. Prediction of GSL water levels necessitates the development of a model for accurate predictions of such levels in order to reduce or prevent economic loss due to flooding as happened in the past. A data-driven model, whose intent is to determine the relationship between inputs and outputs without knowing underlying physical process, was used in this project. A data-driven model can bridge the gap between classical regression-based and physically-based hydrological models. A Support Vector Machines (SVM) was used to predict water surface elevation of the GSL. The SVM-based reconstruction was used to develop time series forecast for multiple lead times. The model is able to extract the dynamics of the system by using only a few observed data points for training. The reliability of the algorithm in learning and forecasting the dynamics of the system was tested by changing two parameters: the integer time lag and the dimension (d) of the system. Parameter tau models the delay in which the dynamics unfolds by creating vectors of dimension d out of single measurements. For a given set of parameters tau and d, the discrepancy between observation and prediction is reduced by changing the cost parameter and a parameter called epsilon that controls the width of the SVM insensitive zone. All the data points within the epsilon insensitive zone are neglected in the SVM analysis. The analysis was performed for two time periods. The period of 1982 to 1987 was used to test the model performance in predicting the corresponding dramatic rise of GSL elevation. The period of 1987 to 2008 was used to test the performance of model for the normal water level rise and fall of the GSL. This analysis

  14. Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan D.; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We estimate return periods and levels of extreme still water levels for the highly vulnerable and historically and culturally important small marsh islands known as the Halligen, located in the Wadden Sea offshore of the coast of northern Germany. This is a challenging task as only few water level records are available for this region, and they are currently too short to apply traditional extreme value analysis methods. Therefore, we use the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) approach. This originates from hydrology but has been used before in several coastal studies and is also currently applied by the local federal administration responsible for coastal protection in the study area. The RFA enables us to indirectly estimate return levels by transferring hydrological information from gauged to related ungauged sites. Our analyses highlight that this methodology has some drawbacks and may over- or underestimate return levels compared to direct analyses using station data. To overcome these issues, we present an alternative approach, combining numerical and statistical models. First, we produced a numerical multidecadal model hindcast of water levels for the entire North Sea. Predicted water levels from the hindcast are bias corrected using the information from the available tide gauge records. Hence, the simulated water levels agree well with the measured water levels at gauged sites. The bias correction is then interpolated spatially to obtain correction functions for the simulated water levels at each coastal and island model grid point in the study area. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, return water levels suitable for coastal infrastructure design are estimated continuously along the entire coastline of the study area, including the offshore islands. A similar methodology can be applied in other regions of the world where tide gauge observations are sparse.

  15. Prediction of corrosion rates of water distribution pipelines according to aggressive corrosive water in Korea.

    PubMed

    Chung, W S; Yu, M J; Lee, H D

    2004-01-01

    The drinking water network serving Korea has been used for almost 100 years. Therefore, pipelines have suffered various degrees of deterioration due to aggressive environments. The pipe breaks were caused by in-external corrosion, water hammer, surface loading, etc. In this paper, we focused on describing corrosion status in water distribution pipes in Korea and reviewing some methods to predict corrosion rates. Results indicate that corrosive water of lakes was more aggressive than river water and the winter was more aggressive compared to other seasons. The roughness growth rates of Dongbok lake showed 0.23 mm/year. The high variation of corrosion rates is controlled by the aging pipes and smaller diameter. Also the phenolphthalein test on a cementitious core of cement mortar lined ductile cast iron pipe indicated the pipes over 15 years old had lost 50-100% of their lime active cross sectional area. PMID:14982159

  16. Should a water colour parameter be included in lake total phosphorus prediction models used for the Water Framework Directive?

    PubMed

    Vinogradoff, Susan I; Oliver, Ian W

    2015-01-01

    Under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) lakes are classified according to a variety of criteria. This classification facilitates state of the environment assessments and helps identify work needed to achieve the objectives of the WFD, which are broadly to maintain and/or restore water quality and ecological status at a level recognised as good or high. To achieve high or good status, lakes must meet a criterion for total phosphorus (TP) that is linked to a predicted reference condition value that is derived by various models. Lakes which fail to meet good status may require expensive remedial actions to be undertaken, thus accurate identification of the reference condition TP concentration is vital for effective environmental management. However, the models currently employed could be improved for some regions, particularly those with carbon rich soils. By examining 19 reference condition lakes (i.e. lakes essentially non-impacted by humans) in peaty areas of Scotland, we found that a simple parameter linked to water colour and humic substances was a better predictor of TP than the currently employed models (R(2) 0.585 vs R(2) < 0.01). Therefore, for Scotland and elsewhere, in regions with carbon rich soils and lakes with humic waters the TP predictive models could be improved by development and incorporation of a parameter related to water colour and humic components. PMID:25262390

  17. Predicting FCAT Reading Scores Using the Reading-Level Indicator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Nile; Stanley, Laurel

    2011-01-01

    Multiple regression analysis indicates that the Reading-Level Indicator, a paper-and-pencil test, is a moderately strong predictor for the high-stakes standardized test, the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test in Reading. Classroom teachers can administer the inexpensive Reading-Level Indicator in a short period of time and use the results as a…

  18. PLIO: a generic tool for real-time operational predictive optimal control of water networks.

    PubMed

    Cembrano, G; Quevedo, J; Puig, V; Pérez, R; Figueras, J; Verdejo, J M; Escaler, I; Ramón, G; Barnet, G; Rodríguez, P; Casas, M

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a generic tool, named PLIO, that allows to implement the real-time operational control of water networks. Control strategies are generated using predictive optimal control techniques. This tool allows the flow management in a large water supply and distribution system including reservoirs, open-flow channels for water transport, water treatment plants, pressurized water pipe networks, tanks, flow/pressure control elements and a telemetry/telecontrol system. Predictive optimal control is used to generate flow control strategies from the sources to the consumer areas to meet future demands with appropriate pressure levels, optimizing operational goals such as network safety volumes and flow control stability. PLIO allows to build the network model graphically and then to automatically generate the model equations used by the predictive optimal controller. Additionally, PLIO can work off-line (in simulation) and on-line (in real-time mode). The case study of Santiago-Chile is presented to exemplify the control results obtained using PLIO off-line (in simulation). PMID:22097020

  19. ELEVATED LEVELS OF SODIUM IN COMMUNITY DRINKING WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    A comparison study of students from towns with differing levels of sodium in drinking water revealed statistically significantly higher blood pressure distributions among the students from the town with high sodium levels. Differences were found in both systolic and diastolic rea...

  20. Impact of Plumbing Age on Copper Levels in Drinking Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Theory and limited practical experiences suggest that higher copper levels in drinking water tap samples are typically associated with newer plumbing systems, and levels decrease with increasing plumbing age. Past researchers have developed a conceptual model to explain the “agin...

  1. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  2. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  3. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  4. Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

    EPA Science Inventory

    Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

  5. Prediction of underwater sound levels from rain and wind

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Barry B.; Nystuen, Jeffrey A.; Lien, Ren-Chieh

    2005-06-01

    Wind and rain generated ambient sound from the ocean surface represents the background baseline of ocean noise. Understanding these ambient sounds under different conditions will facilitate other scientific studies. For example, measurement of the processes producing the sound, assessment of sonar performance, and helping to understand the influence of anthropogenic generated noise on marine mammals. About 90 buoy-months of ocean ambient sound data have been collected using Acoustic Rain Gauges in different open-ocean locations in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. Distinct ambient sound spectra for various rainfall rates and wind speeds are identified through a series of discrimination processes. Five divisions of the sound spectra associated with different sound generating mechanisms can be predicted using wind speed and rainfall rate as input variables. The ambient sound data collected from the Intertropical Convergence Zone are used to construct the prediction algorithms, and are tested on the data from the Western Pacific Warm Pool. This physically based semi-empirical model predicts the ambient sound spectra (0.5-50 kHz) at rainfall rates from 2-200 mm/h and wind speeds from 2 to 14 m/s. .

  6. Analysis for water level data for Everglades National Park, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buchanan, T.J.; Hartwell, J.H.

    1972-01-01

    Stage-duration curves were developed for five gaging stations in Everglades National Park, Florida. Four of the five curves show similar characteristics with an increase in the slope when the water level is below land surface. Monthly stage-duration curves, developed for one of the stations, reflect the seasonal trends of the water level. Recession curves were prepared for the same five stations. These curves represent the average water-level decline during periods of little or no rainfall. They show the decline in level at the end of 10, 20, and 60 days for any given initial stage. A family of curves was also prepared to give the recession from various initial stages for any period up to 60 days.

  7. RADIOLYTIC HYDROGEN GENERATION INSAVANNAH RIVER SITE (SRS) HIGH LEVEL WASTETANKS COMPARISON OF SRS AND HANFORDMODELING PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, C; Ned Bibler, N

    2009-04-15

    In the high level waste tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS), hydrogen is produced continuously by interaction of the radiation in the tank with water in the waste. Consequently, the vapor spaces of the tanks are purged to prevent the accumulation of H{sub 2} and possible formation of a flammable mixture in a tank. Personnel at SRS have developed an empirical model to predict the rate of H{sub 2} formation in a tank. The basis of this model is the prediction of the G value for H{sub 2} production. This G value is the number of H{sub 2} molecules produced per 100 eV of radiolytic energy absorbed by the waste. Based on experimental studies it was found that the G value for H{sub 2} production from beta radiation and from gamma radiation were essentially equal. The G value for H{sub 2} production from alpha radiation was somewhat higher. Thus, the model has two equations, one for beta/gamma radiation and one for alpha radiation. Experimental studies have also indicated that both G values are decreased by the presence of nitrate and nitrite ions in the waste. These are the main scavengers for the precursors of H{sub 2} in the waste; thus the equations that were developed predict G values for hydrogen production as a function of the concentrations of these two ions in waste. Knowing the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads in the waste allows one to predict the total generation rate for hydrogen in a tank. With this prediction a ventilation rate can be established for each tank to ensure that a flammable mixture is not formed in the vapor space in a tank. Recently personnel at Hanford have developed a slightly different model for predicting hydrogen G values. Their model includes the same precursor for H{sub 2} as the SRS model but also includes an additional precursor not in the SRS model. Including the second precursor for H{sub 2} leads to different empirical equations for predicting the G values for H{sub 2} as a function of the nitrate and nitrite concentrations in

  8. Water uptake strategies of maize under varying levels of water stress

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Ploeg, M.; Gooren, H. P. A.; Bakker, G.; de Rooij, G. H.

    2009-04-01

    More frequent and intense droughts due to global climate change, together with an increasing agricultural water use emphasize the importance of understanding root water uptake under water-stressed conditions. While root water uptake is driven by potential gradients, measurement of soil water potentials was limited by the measurement range of water-filled tensiometers (-0.085 MPa). A recently developed polymer tensiometer (POT) can measure soil water potentials down to -1.6 MPa. Monitoring low soil water potentials in the presence of root water uptake may help gain knowledge of a plant's strategy to cope with water stress, and allows improved determination of local water stress levels in experiments. To investigate plant strategies that cope with water stress, soil water potentials were measured in the vicinity of maize roots in three lysimeters. The lysimeters received different irrigation amounts: an optimal irrigation gift (-0.05 < p < -0.02 MPa) and minimized irrigation to create moderate (minimum p = -0.45 MPa) and severe (minimum p = -0.80 MPa) water stress. Measured soil water potentials showed that the water stressed plants started to take up water from deeper soil layers, and continued to take up water under very dry conditions. This research was funded by the Dutch Technology Foundation (STW).

  9. A statistical model for water quality predictions from a river discharge using coastal observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Terrill, E. J.

    2007-12-01

    Understanding and predicting coastal ocean water quality has benefits for reducing human health risks, protecting the environment, and improving local economies which depend on clean beaches. Continuous observations of coastal physical oceanography increase the understanding of the processes which control the fate and transport of a riverine plume which potentially contains high levels of contaminants from the upstream watershed. A data-driven model of the fate and transport of river plume water from the Tijuana River has been developed using surface current observations provided by a network of HF radar operated as part of a local coastal observatory that has been in place since 2002. The model outputs are compared with water quality sampling of shoreline indicator bacteria, and the skill of an alarm for low water quality is evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In addition, statistical analysis of beach closures in comparison with environmental variables is also discussed.

  10. Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Page, Juliet A.; Hobbs, Christopher M.; Plotkin, Kenneth J.; Stusnick, Eric; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

  11. Global Gray Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels Related to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Loads to Fresh Water.

    PubMed

    Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2015-11-01

    This is the first global assessment of nitrogen-related water pollution in river basins with a specification of the pollution by economic sector, and by crop for the agricultural sector. At a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minute, we estimate anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loads to freshwater, calculate the resultant gray water footprints (GWFs), and relate the GWFs per river basin to runoff to calculate the N-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment. The accumulated global GWF related to anthropogenic N loads in the period 2002-2010 was 13×10(12) m3/y. China contributed about 45% to the global total. Three quarters of the GWF related to N loads came from diffuse sources (agriculture), 23% from domestic point sources and 2% from industrial point sources. Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the N-related GWF (18%), followed by vegetables (15%) and oil crops (11%). The river basins with WPL>1 (where the N load exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity), cover about 17% of the global land area, contribute about 9% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to 48% of the global population. PMID:26440220

  12. Prediction of pediatric blood lead levels from gasoline consumption

    SciTech Connect

    Billick, I.H.

    1982-04-21

    Tables illustrate the results of a study which analyzed the relationship between blood levels in children and gasoline lead consumption in New York City, Chicago, and Louisville. It examined the percent of blood lead measurements which exceeded 30 micrograms of lead per 100 milliliters of blood, a level which the Environmental Protection Agency has concluded is the maximum safe level. Tables provide data on the blood lead levels, by race, age group, and sampling data for all three cities. The New York City data are separated by screening status as well. The blood lead levels are reported both as geometric mean blood lead, for the given cell, and the percent of observations with blood leads greater than 30 micrograms of lead per 100 milliliters of blood. To illustrate the time dependence of the blood lead, plots have been made for a single age - race population for all three cities. The 24 - 35 year old age group was selected since this appears to be the most sensitive group. Tables summarize data base characteristics and the number of observations for each city, broken down by race. Gasoline data are appended.

  13. Low Vitamin D levels predict clinical features of schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Cieslak, Kristina; Feingold, Jordyn; Antonius, Daniel; Walsh-Messinger, Julie; Dracxler, Roberta; Rosedale, Mary; Aujero, Nicole; Keefe, David; Goetz, Deborah; Goetz, Raymond; Malaspina, Dolores

    2014-01-01

    Vitamin D plays crucial roles in neuroprotection and neurodevelopment, and low levels are commonly associated with schizophrenia. We considered if the association was spurious or causal by examining the association of Vitamin D with Leukocyte Telomere Length (LTL), a marker of cellular aging. Vitamin D levels in 22 well-characterized schizophrenia cases were examined with respect to symptoms, cognition, and functioning. LTL was assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The results showed that 91% (20) had deficient or insufficient Vitamin D levels, which were associated with excitement and grandiosity, social anhedonia, and poverty of speech. Sex-specific analyses showed strong associations of hypovitamintosis D to negative symptoms and decreased premorbid adjustment in males, and to lesser hallucinations and emotional withdrawal, but increased anti-social aggression in females. In females LTL was furthermore associated with Vitamin D levels. This study demonstrates a relationship of low vitamin D levels with increased cellular aging in females. It is also the first study to demonstrate potential sex-specific profiles among schizophrenia cases with hypovitaminosis. PMID:25311777

  14. Low vitamin D levels predict clinical features of schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Cieslak, Kristina; Feingold, Jordyn; Antonius, Daniel; Walsh-Messinger, Julie; Dracxler, Roberta; Rosedale, Mary; Aujero, Nicole; Keefe, David; Goetz, Deborah; Goetz, Raymond; Malaspina, Dolores

    2014-11-01

    Vitamin D plays crucial roles in neuroprotection and neurodevelopment, and low levels are commonly associated with schizophrenia. We considered if the association was spurious or causal by examining the association of Vitamin D with Leukocyte Telomere Length (LTL), a marker of cellular aging. Vitamin D levels in 22 well-characterized schizophrenia cases were examined with respect to symptoms, cognition, and functioning. LTL was assessed using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The results showed that 91% (20) had deficient or insufficient Vitamin D levels, which were associated with excitement and grandiosity, social anhedonia, and poverty of speech. Sex-specific analyses showed strong associations of hypovitamintosis D to negative symptoms and decreased premorbid adjustment in males, and to lesser hallucinations and emotional withdrawal, but increased anti-social aggression in females. In females LTL was furthermore associated with Vitamin D levels. This study demonstrates a relationship of low vitamin D levels with increased cellular aging in females. It is also the first study to demonstrate potential sex-specific profiles among schizophrenia cases with hypovitaminosis. PMID:25311777

  15. Regional and State Level Water Scarcity Report: Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicoletti, C. K.; Lopez-Morales, C. A.; Hoover, J. H.; Voigt, B. G.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Mohammed, I. N.

    2010-12-01

    There are an abundance of large-scale, coarse resolution global water scarcity studies, but the existing literature fails to address regional and state specific scarcity measures. Moreover, while environmental water requirements are an integral factor in the development and implementation of sustainable water management practices, only recently has this notion been introduced to water scarcity research. In this paper, we argue that developing a preliminary measure of water scarcity, at the regional and state levels, will allow for more informed policy development. The goal of this study is to generate a more comprehensive understanding of water scarcity in the Northeast, by gathering fine scale data, applying a consistent methodology to the calculation of a scarcity index, and analyzing the results to see relative trends in spatio-temporal water scarcity. Public supply, irrigation, rural, industrial and thermo-power withdrawals have been compiled from USGS state water use publications from 1950 to 1985. Using the WBMplus water model runoff data, state specific in-stream environmental water requirements were calculated using the accepted hydro-ecological methodology. Water scarcity was then calculated as a ratio of water withdrawals to total available water minus environmental flow requirements for the system. In so doing, this study generates a spatially explicit and temporally varying water scarcity indicator (WSI) for the Northeastern United States between 1950 and 2000 at the regional and state levels at a five-year time interval. Calculation of a spatial and temporal water scarcity indicator enabled us to identify regions and specific states that were: slightly exploited (WSI < 0.3), moderately exploited (0.31.0). The minimum environmental water requirements to maintain in-stream aquatic and riparian ecosystems for the Northeastern states ranged between 27.5 to 36.3 percent of the mean annual

  16. Subsidence at the Fairport Harbor Water Level Gauge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conner, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    SUBSIDENCE AT THE FAIRPORT HARBOR WATER LEVEL GAUGE I will provide information on methods being used to monitor Lake Erie water levels and earth movement at Fairport Harbor, Ohio. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is responsible for vertical movement throughout the Great Lakes region. Fairport Harbor is also experiencing vertical movement due to salt mining, so the nearby water level gauge operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is affected by both GIA and mining. NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (NGS) defines and maintains the National Spatial Reference System (NSRS). The NSRS includes a network of permanently marked points; a consistent, accurate, and up-to-date national shoreline; a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) which supports three-dimensional positioning activities; and a set of accurate models describing dynamic, geophysical processes that affect spatial measurements. The NSRS provides the spatial reference foundation for transportation, mapping, charting and a multitude of scientific and engineering applications. Fundamental elements of geodetic infrastructure include GPS CORS (3-D), water level and tide gauges (height) and a system of vertical bench marks (height). When two or more of these elements converge they may provide an independent determination of position and vertical stability as is the case here at the Fairport Harbor water level gauge. Analysis of GPS, leveling and water level data reveal that this gauge is subsiding at about 2-3 mm/year, independent of the effects of GIA. Analysis of data from the nearby OHLA GPS CORS shows it subsiding at about 4 mm/yr, four times faster than expected due to GIA alone. A long history of salt mine activity in the area is known to geologists but it came as a surprise to other scientists.

  17. Orion Crew Member Injury Predictions during Land and Water Landings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Charles; Littell, Justin D.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Tabiei, Ala

    2008-01-01

    A review of astronaut whole body impact tolerance is discussed for land or water landings of the next generation manned space capsule named Orion. LS-DYNA simulations of Orion capsule landings are performed to produce a low, moderate, and high probability of injury. The paper evaluates finite element (FE) seat and occupant simulations for assessing injury risk for the Orion crew and compares these simulations to whole body injury models commonly referred to as the Brinkley criteria. The FE seat and crash dummy models allow for varying the occupant restraint systems, cushion materials, side constraints, flailing of limbs, and detailed seat/occupant interactions to minimize landing injuries to the crew. The FE crash test dummies used in conjunction with the Brinkley criteria provides a useful set of tools for predicting potential crew injuries during vehicle landings.

  18. Predicting Water Activity for Complex Wastes with Solvation Cluster Equilibria (SCE) - 12042

    SciTech Connect

    Agnew, S.F.; Reynolds, J.G.; Johnston, C.T.

    2012-07-01

    Predicting an electrolyte mixture's water activity, i.e. the ratio of water vapor pressure over a solution with that of pure water, in principle reveals both boiling point and solubilities for that mixture. Better predictions of these properties helps support the ongoing missions to concentrate complex nuclear waste mixtures in order to conserve tank space and improved predictions of water activity will help. A new approach for predicting water activity, the solvation cluster equilibria (SCE) model, uses pure electrolyte water activities to predict water activity for a complex mixture of those electrolytes. An SCE function based on electrolyte hydration free energy and a standard Debye- Hueckel (DH) charge compression fits each pure electrolyte's water activity with three parameters. Given these pure electrolyte water activities, the SCE predicts any mixture water activity over a large range of concentration with an additional parameter for each mixture vector, the multinarity. In contrast to ionic strength, which scales with concentration, multinarity is related to the relative proportion of electrolytes in a mixture and can either increase or decrease the water activity prediction over a broad range of concentration for that mixture. The SCE model predicts water activity for complex electrolyte mixtures based on the water activities of pure electrolytes. Three parameter SCE functions fit the water activities of pure electrolytes and along with a single multinarity parameter for each mixture vector then predict the mixture water activity. Predictions of water activity can in principle predict solution electrolyte activity and this relationship will be explored in the future. Predicting electrolyte activities for complex mixtures provides a means of determining solubilities for each electrolyte. Although there are a number of reports [9, 10, 11] of water activity models for pure and binary mixtures of electrolytes, none of them compare measured versus calculated

  19. Perchlorate levels in soil and waters from the Atacama Desert.

    PubMed

    Calderón, R; Palma, P; Parker, D; Molina, M; Godoy, F A; Escudey, M

    2014-02-01

    Perchlorate is an anion that originates as a contaminant in ground and surface waters. The presence of perchlorate in soil and water samples from northern Chile (Atacama Desert) was investigated by ion chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry. Results indicated that perchlorate was found in five of seven soils (cultivated and uncultivated) ranging from 290 ± 1 to 2,565 ± 2 μg/kg. The greatest concentration of perchlorate was detected in Humberstone soil (2,565 ± 2 μg/kg) associated with nitrate deposits. Perchlorate levels in Chilean soils are greater than those reported for uncultivated soils in the United States. Perchlorate was also found in superficial running water ranging from 744 ± 0.01 to 1,480 ± 0.02 μg/L. Perchlorate water concentration is 30-60 times greater than levels established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (24.5 μg/L) for drinking. PMID:24165784

  20. Predicted Transport Of Pyrethroid Insecticides From An Urban Landscape To Surface Water

    PubMed Central

    Jorgenson, Brant; Brown, Larry; Fleishman, Erica; Macneale, Kate; Schlenk, Daniel; Scholz, Nat; Spromberg, Julann; Werner, Inge; Weston, Don; Young, Thomas M.; Zhang, Minghua; Zhao, Qingfu

    2014-01-01

    We developed a simple screening-level model of exposure of aquatic species to pyrethroid insecticides for the lower American River watershed (California, USA). The model incorporated both empirically derived washoff functions based on existing, small-scale precipitation simulations and empirical data on pyrethroid insecticide use and watershed properties for Sacramento County, California. We calibrated the model to in-stream monitoring data and used it to predict daily river pyrethroid concentration from 1995 through 2010. The model predicted a marked increase in pyrethroid toxic units starting in 2000, coincident with an observed watershed-wide increase in pyrethroid use. After 2000, approximately 70% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure in the watershed was associated with the pyrethroids bifenthrin and cyfluthrin. Pyrethroid applications for above-ground structural pest control on the basis of suspension concentrate product formulations accounted for greater than 97% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure. Projected application of mitigation strategies, such as curtailment of structural perimeter band and barrier treatments as recently adopted by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation, reduced predicted total toxic unit exposure by 84%. The model also predicted that similar reductions in surface water concentrations of pyrethroids could be achieved through a switch from suspension concentrate categorized products to emulsifiable concentrate categorized products without restrictions on current use practice. Even with these mitigation actions, the predicted concentration of some pyrethroids would continue to exceed chronic aquatic life criteria. PMID:24115122

  1. Predicting the Proficiency Level of Language Learners Using Lexical Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossley, Scott A.; Salsbury, Tom; McNamara, Danielle S.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores how second language (L2) texts written by learners at various proficiency levels can be classified using computational indices that characterize lexical competence. For this study, 100 writing samples taken from 100 L2 learners were analyzed using lexical indices reported by the computational tool Coh-Metrix. The L2 writing…

  2. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    SciTech Connect

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-07-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact.

  3. Characterization and predictive abilities of GroundWater age data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Dreuzy, J. R.; Kolbe, T.; Marçais, J.; Thomas, Z.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Leray, S.; Gueutin, P.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater-age data derived from sampled tracer concentrations are recognized as essential characterization and prediction tools in hydrogeology. They give characteristic transit time information as well as indications on aquifer structures and exchanges. Information can however be difficult to extract and often requires additional knowledge on the flow patterns or on the geological heterogeneity that can guide the choice of the interpretation framework. Any constrain on transit times concerning their distribution facilitates greatly the interpretation. Groundwater flow and transport models help in characterizing potential transit time distributions. This has been extensively done in heterogeneous porous and fractured media. Upscaling local pore and Darcy transport processes to some 100m-scale generic breakthrough curves underline the importance of extended tailing (long transit times of several decades to centuries). Shorter transit times from months to decades are also sensitive to recharge variability, catchment topography, aquifer exchanges and sampling conditions. Large-scale calibrated models integrating these different constrains are of high interest to assess the information content of GroundWater age data. Results on a limited number of case studies confirm that the atmospheric tracers of the last 50 years give accurate estimates of cumulative residence times and of the transport fate of some contaminants like nitrates. It already appears that the quality of the prediction does not always come from the capacity of the transit-time model to fit the actual transit-time distribution but also from the nature of the prediction or of the hydrological regime. Access to a wide range of well-informed and calibrated models taken as synthetic references should be developed to confirm and refine these early conclusions.

  4. Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

    2014-04-01

    Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

  5. Simulating subsurface heterogeneity improves large-scale water resources predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, A. J.; Gleeson, T.; Wagener, T.; Wada, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Heterogeneity is abundant everywhere across the hydrosphere. It exists in the soil, the vadose zone and the groundwater. In large-scale hydrological models, subsurface heterogeneity is usually not considered. Instead average or representative values are chosen for each of the simulated grid cells, not incorporating any sub-grid variability. This may lead to unreliable predictions when the models are used for assessing future water resources availability, floods or droughts, or when they are used for recommendations for more sustainable water management. In this study we use a novel, large-scale model that takes into account sub-grid heterogeneity for the simulation of groundwater recharge by using statistical distribution functions. We choose all regions over Europe that are comprised by carbonate rock (~35% of the total area) because the well understood dissolvability of carbonate rocks (karstification) allows for assessing the strength of subsurface heterogeneity. Applying the model with historic data and future climate projections we show that subsurface heterogeneity lowers the vulnerability of groundwater recharge on hydro-climatic extremes and future changes of climate. Comparing our simulations with the PCR-GLOBWB model we can quantify the deviations of simulations for different sub-regions in Europe.

  6. Prediction of Turbulent Jet Mixing Noise Reduction by Water Injection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kandula, Max

    2008-01-01

    A one-dimensional control volume formulation is developed for the determination of jet mixing noise reduction due to water injection. The analysis starts from the conservation of mass, momentum and energy for the confrol volume, and introduces the concept of effective jet parameters (jet temperature, jet velocity and jet Mach number). It is shown that the water to jet mass flow rate ratio is an important parameter characterizing the jet noise reduction on account of gas-to-droplet momentum and heat transfer. Two independent dimensionless invariant groups are postulated, and provide the necessary relations for the droplet size and droplet Reynolds number. Results are presented illustrating the effect of mass flow rate ratio on the jet mixing noise reduction for a range of jet Mach number and jet Reynolds number. Predictions from the model show satisfactory comparison with available test data on perfectly expanded hot supersonic jets. The results suggest that significant noise reductions can be achieved at increased flow rate ratios.

  7. The analysis of SCS return momentum effects on the RCS water level during mid-loop operations

    SciTech Connect

    swang Seo, J.; Young Yang, J.; Tack Hwang, S.

    1995-09-01

    An accurate prediction of Reactor Coolant System (RCS) water levels is of importance in the determination of allowable operating range to ensure the safety during the mid-loop operations. However, complex hydraulic phenomena induced by Shutdown Cooling System (SCS) return momentum cause different water levels from those in the loop where the water level indicators are located. This was apparantly observed at the pre-core cold hydro test of the Younggwang Nuclear Unit 3 (YGN 3) in Korea. In this study, in order to analytically understand the effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water level and its general trend, a model using one-dimensional momentum equation, hydraulic jump, Bernoulli equation, flow resistance coefficient, and total water volume conservation has been developed to predict the RCS water levels at various RCS locations during the mid-loop conditions and the simulation results were compared with the test data. The analysis shows that the hydraulic jump in the operating cold legs in conjunction with the momentum loss throughout the RCS is the main cause creating the water level differences at various RCS locations. The prediction results provide good explanations for the test data and show the significant effect of the SCS return momentum on the RCS water levels.

  8. Reduction in predicted survival times in cold water due to wind and waves.

    PubMed

    Power, Jonathan; Simões Ré, António; Barwood, Martin; Tikuisis, Peter; Tipton, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Recent marine accidents have called into question the level of protection provided by immersion suits in real (harsh) life situations. Two immersion suit studies, one dry and the other with 500 mL of water underneath the suit, were conducted in cold water with 10-12 males in each to test body heat loss under three environmental conditions: calm, as mandated for immersion suit certification, and two combinations of wind plus waves to simulate conditions typically found offshore. In both studies mean skin heat loss was higher in wind and waves vs. calm; deep body temperature and oxygen consumption were not different. Mean survival time predictions exceeded 36 h for all conditions in the first study but were markedly less in the second in both calm and wind and waves. Immersion suit protection and consequential predicted survival times under realistic environmental conditions and with leakage are reduced relative to calm conditions. PMID:25766418

  9. Analysis of water-level fluctuations in Wisconsin wells

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Patterson, G.L.; Zaporozec, A.

    1987-01-01

    The long-term cyclicity of ground-water level fluctuations is shown on hydrographs of wells Sw-7, Ln-25a, Mt-7, Ju-8, and Ju-98. Seasonal variations that tend to obscure the long-term trends are eliminated by plotting the average annual water levels. The hydrographs are similar even though the wells are 80 to 100 miles apart and constructed in different geologic materials. The long-term trends and the duration of the cycles apparently depend little on the location and on the lithologic composition of the aquifers, but rathe

  10. Wii mote as hydrological sensor: observation of water level fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luxemburg, W.; Hut, R.; Weijs, S.; Hegnauer, M.

    2009-12-01

    The input device of the Nintendo Wii, the Wii-mote offers scientist a multitude of cheap, high quality sensors; ideal for proof of concept testing. For a specific application, i.e. the water level fluctuation in a floating evaporation pan the Wii-mote was tested as the observing device. It is shown that the controller can observe movements with high enough temporal and spatial resolution of up to 4 infrared LED’s to describe water level movements. Floating pans positioned in lakes and reservoirs better represent open water evaporation than evaporation pans installed on land. On the other hand performing water level measurements in a floating pan is more complicated due to movement of the pan and wave activities in the pan. The Wii-mote was mounted on the side of a standard class A-pan and a float was placed in the middle of the pan, with 4 LED’s on top moving along a fixed bar. The information that the Wii-mote wirelessly sends by blue tooth was captured on a laptop. With a MATLAB routine this data was converted into movement of the LED’s relatively to the controller. The observations show that wave activities are nicely captured with a typical spatial resolution smaller than 0.1 mm in our set-up and a temporal resolution of maximum 100 Hz. A frequency domain filter was applied to the observed datasets to obtain average water levels. In our laboratory setting the pan was placed in a large basin with a wave generator. A constant, but small, rate of water was added to the evaporation pan. The average pan levels from the filtered datasets showed systematically lower levels compared to the level without any wave activities. This is a typical effect of waves that occur in shallow basins. However, the added water with rates up to 5 mm/hour were clearly recognized in the filtered datasets which indicates that the Wii-mote is very well capable as a sensor for water level observations.

  11. Predicting the toxicity of permethrin to Daphnia magna in water using SPME fibers.

    PubMed

    Harwood, Amanda D; Bunch, Aubrey R; Flickinger, Dallas L; You, Jing; Lydy, Michael J

    2012-04-01

    Multiple factors can influence bioavailability, which can make predictions of toxicity in natural systems difficult. The current study examined the potential use of solid-phase microextraction fibers as a matrix-independent approach to predict the toxicity of permethrin to Daphnia magna across various water sources, including a laboratory reconstituted water, two natural waters, and a modified natural water. Water source strongly affected the toxicity of permethrin as well as the concentration-response relationships. Although permethrin concentrations in the water were predictive of toxicity to D. magna for individual water sources, there was no relationship between permethrin concentrations among water sources and mortality. This indicated that compositional differences among water sources can greatly influence toxicity, suggesting that benchmarks established using reconstituted water may be overly conservative for some natural waters. In addition, although permethrin tissue residues were predictive of mortality for individual waters, the correlation among waters was not as clear. Finally, both 48-h and equilibrium-based SPME fiber concentrations adequately predicted toxicity independent of water properties. This demonstrated that bioavailability-based estimates provided a more accurate prediction of toxicity than water concentrations and that SPME fibers could be used in environmental monitoring as a rapid and accurate means of predicting toxicity in natural waters. PMID:22037820

  12. Predicting Airborne Particle Levels Aboard Washington State School Buses

    PubMed Central

    Adar, Sara D.; Davey, Mark; Sullivan, James R.; Compher, Michael; Szpiro, Adam; Liu, L.-J. Sally

    2008-01-01

    School buses contribute substantially to childhood air pollution exposures yet they are rarely quantified in epidemiology studies. This paper characterizes fine particulate matter (PM2.5) aboard school buses as part of a larger study examining the respiratory health impacts of emission-reducing retrofits. To assess onboard concentrations, continuous PM2.5 data were collected during 85 trips aboard 43 school buses during normal driving routines, and aboard hybrid lead vehicles traveling in front of the monitored buses during 46 trips. Ordinary and partial least square regression models for PM2.5 onboard buses were created with and without control for roadway concentrations, which were also modeled. Predictors examined included ambient PM2.5 levels, ambient weather, and bus and route characteristics. Concentrations aboard school buses (21 μg/m3) were four and two-times higher than ambient and roadway levels, respectively. Differences in PM2.5 levels between the buses and lead vehicles indicated an average of 7 μg/m3 originating from the bus's own emission sources. While roadway concentrations were dominated by ambient PM2.5, bus concentrations were influenced by bus age, diesel oxidative catalysts, and roadway concentrations. Cross validation confirmed the roadway models but the bus models were less robust. These results confirm that children are exposed to air pollution from the bus and other roadway traffic while riding school buses. In-cabin air pollution is higher than roadway concentrations and is likely influenced by bus characteristics. PMID:18985175

  13. Water Prediction and Control Technologies for Large-scale Water Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xin; van de Giesen, Nick; van Overloop, Peter-Jules

    2014-05-01

    A number of control techniques have been used in the field of operational water management over recent decades. Among these techniques, the ones that utilize prediction to anticipate near-future problems, such as Model Predictive Control (MPC), have shown the most promising results. Constraints handling and multi-objective management can be explicitly taken into account in MPC. To control large-scale systems, several extensions to standard MPC have been proposed. Firstly, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD-MPC) has been applied to reduce the order the states and computational time. Secondly, a tree-based scheme (TB-MPC) has been proposed to cope with uncertainties of the prediction that are inherently parts of large scale systems. Thirdly, a distributed scheme (DMPC) has been proposed to deal with multiple regions and multiple goals in a computationally tractable way. Simulation experiments on the Dutch water system illustrate that tree-based distributed MPC outperforms feedback control, feedforward control and conventional MPC. Keywords: Model Predictive Control; Proper Orthogonal Decomposition; tree-based control; distributed control; Large Scale Systems;

  14. Politics of innovation in multi-level water governance systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, Katherine A.; Coombes, Peter J.; White, Ian

    2014-11-01

    Innovations are being proposed in many countries in order to support change towards more sustainable and water secure futures. However, the extent to which they can be implemented is subject to complex politics and powerful coalitions across multi-level governance systems and scales of interest. Exactly how innovation uptake can be best facilitated or blocked in these complex systems is thus a matter of important practical and research interest in water cycle management. From intervention research studies in Australia, China and Bulgaria, this paper seeks to describe and analyse the behind-the-scenes struggles and coalition-building that occurs between water utility providers, private companies, experts, communities and all levels of government in an effort to support or block specific innovations. The research findings suggest that in order to ensure successful passage of the proposed innovations, champions for it are required from at least two administrative levels, including one with innovation implementation capacity, as part of a larger supportive coalition. Higher governance levels can play an important enabling role in facilitating the passage of certain types of innovations that may be in competition with currently entrenched systems of water management. Due to a range of natural biases, experts on certain innovations and disciplines may form part of supporting or blocking coalitions but their evaluations of worth for water system sustainability and security are likely to be subject to competing claims based on different values and expertise, so may not necessarily be of use in resolving questions of "best courses of action". This remains a political values-based decision to be negotiated through the receiving multi-level water governance system.

  15. Hydrologic effects on water level changes associated with episodic fault creep near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.A.; Burford, S.S.; Riley, F.S.; Records, A.W.

    1989-01-01

    As part of the Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment, water level is monitored in a well 460 m from the main trace of the San Andreas fault on Middle Mountain, in the preparation zone of the anticipated Parkfield earthquake. The well configuration allows water level to be monitored in two fluid reservoirs at depths of 85 and 250 m below land surface. During 1987, water level changes were recorded during 12 of the 18 episodes of accelerated fault creep detected by a creep meter spanning the fault trace 750 m northwest of the well. The creep-related water level changes in the shallow reservoir have durations of less than 1 day, whereas in the deeper reservoir the changes persist for as long as 2 months. These data suggest that the transient nature of the water level changes in the shallow interval is due to vertical flow to the water table and is not evidence that creep events propagate past the well. -from Authors

  16. Multiple metals predict prolactin and thyrotropin (TSH) levels in men

    SciTech Connect

    Meeker, John D.; Rossano, Mary G.; Protas, Bridget; Diamond, Michael P.; Puscheck, Elizabeth; Daly, Douglas; Paneth, Nigel; Wirth, Julia J.

    2009-10-15

    Exposure to a number of metals can affect neuroendocrine and thyroid signaling, which can result in adverse effects on development, behavior, metabolism, reproduction, and other functions. The present study assessed the relationship between metal concentrations in blood and serum prolactin (PRL) and thyrotropin (TSH) levels, markers of dopaminergic, and thyroid function, respectively, among men participating in a study of environmental influences on male reproductive health. Blood samples from 219 men were analyzed for concentrations of 11 metals and serum levels of PRL and TSH. In multiple linear regression models adjusted for age, BMI and smoking, PRL was inversely associated with arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, manganese, molybdenum, and zinc, but positively associated with chromium. Several of these associations (Cd, Pb, Mo) are consistent with limited studies in humans or animals, and a number of the relationships (Cr, Cu, Pb, Mo) remained when additionally considering multiple metals in the model. Lead and copper were associated with non-monotonic decrease in TSH, while arsenic was associated with a dose-dependent increase in TSH. For arsenic these findings were consistent with recent experimental studies where arsenic inhibited enzymes involved in thyroid hormone synthesis and signaling. More research is needed for a better understanding of the role of metals in neuroendocrine and thyroid function and related health implications.

  17. Effect of Increased Water Vapor Levels on TBC Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Pint, Bruce A; Garner, George Walter; Lowe, Tracie M; Haynes, James A; Zhang, Ying

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the effect of increased water vapor levels on thermal barrier coating (TBC) lifetime, furnace cycle tests were performed at 1150 C in air with 10 vol.% water vapor (similar to natural gas combustion) and 90 vol.%. Either Pt diffusion or Pt-modified aluminide bond coatings were applied to specimens from the same batch of a commercial second-generation single-crystal superalloy and commercial vapor-deposited yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) top coats were applied. Three coatings of each type were furnace cycled to failure to compare the average lifetimes obtained in dry O{sub 2}, using the same superalloy batch and coating types. Average lifetimes with Pt diffusion coatings were unaffected by the addition of water vapor. In contrast, the average lifetime of Pt-modified aluminide coatings was reduced by more than 50% with 10% water vapor but only slightly reduced by 90% water vapor. Based on roughness measurements from similar specimens without a YSZ coating, the addition of 10% water vapor increased the rate of coating roughening more than 90% water vapor. Qualitatively, the amount of {beta}-phase depletion in the coatings exposed in 10% water vapor did not appear to be accelerated.

  18. Real time prediction of sea level anomaly data with the Prognocean system - comparison of results obtained using different prediction techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz; Kosek, Wieslaw

    2013-04-01

    Prognocean is a near-real time modeling and prediction system elaborated and based at University of Wroclaw, Poland. It operates on gridded Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) data obtained from the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO), France. The data acquisition flow from AVISO to Prognocean is entirely automatic and is implemented in Python. The core of the system - including data pre-processing, modeling, prediction, validation and visualization procedures - is composed of a series of R scripts that are interrelated and work at three levels of generalization. The objective of the work presented here is to show the results of our numerical experiment that have been carried out since early 2012. Four prediction models have been implemented to date: (1) extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and the extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model with (2) autoregressive model, (3) threshold autoregressive model and (4) autocovariance procedure. Although the presentation is limited to four models and their predictive skills, Prognocean consists of modules and hence new techniques may be plugged in at any time. In this paper, the comparison of the results into forecasting sea level anomaly maps is presented. Along with sample predictions, with various lead times up to two weeks, we present and discuss a set of root mean square prediction error maps computed in real time after the observations have been available. We identified areas where linear prediction models reveal considerable errors, which may indicate a non-linear mode of sea level change. In addition, we have identified an agreement between the spatial pattern of large prediction errors and the spatial occurrence of key mesoscale ocean eddies.

  19. Influence of nutrient level on methylmercury content in water spinach.

    PubMed

    Greger, Maria; Dabrowska, Beata

    2010-08-01

    Widely consumed vegetables are often cultivated in sewage waters with high nutrient levels. They can contain high levels of methylmercury (MeHg), because they can form MeHg from inorganic Hg in their young shoots. We determined whether the MeHg uptake and the MeHg formation in the shoots of water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica) were affected by the presence of a high nutrient level in the growth medium. Water spinach shoots were rooted and pretreated in growth medium containing 7% (low) or 70% (high) Hoagland nutrient solution; thereafter, the plants were treated with either 0.02 microM MeHg or 0.2 microM HgCl2 for 3 d. Half the plants were then analyzed for total Hg and MeHg. The remaining plants were transferred to mercury-free medium with low or high nutrient levels and posttreated for 3 days before analysis of total Hg and MeHg in order to measure MeHg formation in the absence of external Hg. The results indicate that nutrient level did not influence MeHg uptake, but that a high nutrient level reduced the distribution of MeHg to the shoots 2.7-fold versus low nutrient level. After treatment with HgCl2, MeHg was found in roots and new shoots but not in old shoots. The MeHg:total-Hg ratio was higher in new shoots than in roots, being 13 times higher at high versus low nutrient levels. Thus, MeHg formation was the same in new shoots independent of inorganic Hg concentration, since the total Hg level decreased at a high nutrient level. PMID:20821626

  20. Ensemble approach for projections of return periods of extreme water levels in Estonian waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri; Lagemaa, Priidik

    2014-12-01

    The contribution of various drivers to the water level in the eastern Baltic Sea and the presence of outliers in the time series of observed and hindcast water level lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using an ensemble of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. An example of such an ensemble is constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima (annual maxima and stormy season maxima) with a Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The ensemble involves projections based on two data sets (resolution of 6 h and 1 h) hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) and observed data from four representative sites along the Estonian coast. The observed data are transferred into the grid cells of the RCO model using the HIROMB model and a linear regression. For coastal segments where the observations represent the offshore water level well, the overall appearance of the ensembles signals that the errors of single projections are randomly distributed and that the median of the ensemble provides a sensible projection. For locations where the observed water level involves local effects (e.g. wave set-up) the block maxima are split into clearly separated populations. The resulting ensemble consists of two distinct clusters, the difference between which can be interpreted as a measure of the impact of local features on the water level observations.

  1. Ground-water levels and water-quality data from monitoring wells in Windham, Maine, water years 1997-2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caldwell, J.M.

    2002-01-01

    Ongoing data collection in an established well network in Windham, Maine, serves as an indicator of the hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the aquifer. This report presents data collected from 1997 through 2001, including ground-water levels, measurements of water-quality field parameters, and concentrations of nutrients and arsenic.

  2. Low-level measurements of tritium in water.

    PubMed

    Villa, M; Manjón, G

    2004-01-01

    Using a liquid scintillation counter, an experimental procedure for measuring low-level activity concentrations of tritium in environmental water has been developed by our laboratory, using the electrolytic tritium enrichment. Additionally, some quality tests were applied in order to assure the goodness of the method. Well-known water samples collected in the Tagus River (West of Spain) and the Danube River (Bulgaria), both affected by nuclear plant releases, were analysed and results were compared to previous data. The analytical procedure was applied to drinking water samples from the public water supply of Seville and mineral waters from different springs in Spain in order to characterize its origin. Due to the very low levels of tritium in the analysed samples, some results were reported as lower than the minimum detectable activity concentration (MDA). However, the count rate of these measurements was over the background count rate of LS counter in all the cases. For that reason, an exhaustive discussion about the meaning of the MDA, using an experimental essay, was made in order to establish a rigorous criterion that leads to a reliable value in the case of low-level measurements. PMID:15177365

  3. Water-level changes (1975-1998) in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carlson, Carl S.; Phillips, Steven P.

    1998-01-01

    Antelope Valley is in the western part of the Mojave Desert in southern California, about 50 mi northeast of Los Angeles. Between 1975 and 1998, water levels in the valley have changed in response to a shift in ground-water use from agricultural to urban, declining in some areas and rising in others. A study to document these changes was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Antelope Valley Water Group. This report presents the water-level data and the changes that occurred during this study period.

  4. Comparison Between Water Level and Precipitation in Rio Negro Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figliuolo, G. C.; Santos Da Silva, J.; Calmant, S.; Seyler, F.; Correia, F.; Oliveira, R. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Amazon Basin holds a lot of difficulties for providing data that enable regional researching works, because of its large extension and for having areas, whose access is very difficult. Remote sensing data presents an excellent way for monitoring the Amazon Basin and collecting data for researches. This current study aims matching radar altimetry data from the JASON-2, with the rainfall data from the TRMM satellite in order to analyze the relation between the water level and the precipitation in two different points along the Rio Negro Basin. After data analysis, it was possible noting a difference on the responding process for both regions. Whilst at the NEGRO_089_03 station (located in the city of São Gabriel da Cachoeira) the graphic of precipitation and water level were very similar, in NEGRO_063 station (located in the city of Manaus) the graphic showed a two month discrepancy due to the difference of the river's bottom size in both regions, at NEGRO_089_03's area for having a smaller river and the water level rises faster, whereas in NEGRO_063 the water level takes about two months to respond to precipitation.

  5. Individual Differences and Development in Water-Level Task Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Hoben; Turner, Geoffrey, F. W.

    1991-01-01

    Presents research on individuals' ability to perform Piaget's water-level task. At almost every age and for each sex, some subjects had high probability of success and some had low. Age-related improvement was not a result of children's increasing accuracy in task performance. Differences in performance between sexes were evident at all ages.…

  6. CAN FLUORIDATION AFFECT WATER LEAD LEVELS AND LEAD NEUROTOXICITY?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent reports have attempted to show that certain approaches to fluoridating potable water is linked to increased levels of lead(II) in the blood. We examine these claims in light of the established science and critically evaluate their significance. The completeness of nexafluo...

  7. TRIHALOMETHANE LEVELS IN HOME TAP WATER AND SEMEN QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Trihalomethane Levels in Home Tap Water and Semen Quality
    Laura Fenster, 1 Kirsten Waller, 2 Gayle Windham, 1 Tanya Henneman, 2 Meredith Anderson, 2 Pauline Mendola, 3 James W. Overstreet, 4 Shanna H. Swan5

    1California Department of Health Services, Division of Environm...

  8. Predicting Group-Level Outcome Variables from Variables Measured at the Individual Level: A Latent Variable Multilevel Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Croon, Marcel A.; van Veldhoven, Marc J. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    In multilevel modeling, one often distinguishes between macro-micro and micro-macro situations. In a macro-micro multilevel situation, a dependent variable measured at the lower level is predicted or explained by variables measured at that lower or a higher level. In a micro-macro multilevel situation, a dependent variable defined at the higher…

  9. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  10. Improving frost-simulation subroutines of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Erosion models play an important role in assessing the influence of human activities on the environment. For cold areas, adequate frost simulation is crucial for predicting surface runoff and water erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, physically-based erosion-prediction softwa...

  11. Predictive analyses of ground-water discharges in the Willow Creek Watershed, northeast Nebraska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dugan, Jack T.; Lappala, E.G.

    1978-01-01

    Ground-water discharge to Willow Creek in northeast Nebraska was predicted with a digital model of the ground-water/surface-water system. Recharge and irrigation requirements were determined with a model of the soil zone. The regional aquifer is Pliocene and Pleistocene sands and gravels. Water in the regional aquifer is unconfined in the western part of the watershed and confined in the eastern part. The confining layer is Pleistocene eolian silts with very fine sand interbeds overlying a basal clay. Where the regional aquifer is unconfined, perennial flow of Willow Creek is sustained by ground-water discharge. Where it is confined, the low hydraulic conductivity of the confining beds isolates the regional aquifer from Willow Creek. Adequate agreement between simulated and observed streamflows and water levels during 1975 and 1976 was obtained by modifying initial estimates of hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. The future perennial flow of Willow Creek was simulated by superimposing six patterns of ground-water withdrawals upon variations in recharge for a monthly climatic sequence identical with the period 1931-34. These analyses showed that the perennial monthly flows would be less than 12 cubic feet per second at least 50 percent of the time. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. Inattention Symptoms Predict Level of Depression in Early Childhood

    PubMed Central

    Rajendran, Khushmand; O’Neill, Sarah; Halperin, Jeffrey M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To investigate the potential bidirectional relationships between severity of inattention and depression across early childhood. Methods Children (N = 216) from the New York, NY, metropolitan area were recruited when they were aged 3 to 4 years (T1) and studied again at age 6 (T2) and 7 (T3) years. Child inattention symptoms were measured using the Kiddie–Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Aged Children–Present and Lifetime, along with both parent and teacher reports on the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2). Severity of child depression was assessed at each time point using parent and teacher reports on the BASC-2. After examining correlations between child inattention and depression, structural equation modeling was used to investigate whether child inattention was longitudinally related to child depression, and whether child depression symptoms were associated with later child inattention. Results Severity of child inattention at T1 and T2 was longitudinally associated with increased severity of child depression at T2 and T3, respectively. Early child depression was not longitudinally associated with later child inattention. Conclusion Child inattention is a risk factor for increased levels of child depression. Pediatricians and clinicians who assess children’s inattention symptoms also need to investigate symptoms of depression. This study makes a case for treating children’s inattention symptoms at preschool and early childhood, before emotional problems become more severe. PMID:23391681

  13. Comparison of numerical models for predicting ground water rebound in abandoned deep mine systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Y.; Baek, H.; Kim, D.

    2012-12-01

    Cessation of dewatering usually results in ground water rebound after closing a deep underground mine because the mind voids and surrounding strata flood up to the levels of decant points such as shafts and drifts. Several numerical models have been developed to predict the timing, magnitude and location of discharges resulting from ground water rebound. We compared the numerical models such as VSS-NET, GRAM and MODFLOW codes at different spatial and time scales. Based on the comparisons, a new strategy is established to develop a program for ground water rebound modeling in abandoned deep mine systems. This presentation describes the new strategy and its application to an abandoned underground mine in Korea.

  14. Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.

    2011-01-01

    To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

  15. Recognition and knowledge of the water-level principle.

    PubMed

    Howard, I P

    1978-01-01

    Piaget and Inhelder showed that children do not realize that the surface of a fluid remains horizontal in a tilted vessel. Several studies have since shown that many adults do not have an adequate concept of the water-level principle. However, in all these studies, drawings of vessels, or other abstract displays, were used. The present experiment is an investigation of whether adults who do not know the water-level principle are able to recognize the correct orientation of a fluid surface in realistic three-dimensional scenes and in cinematographic sequences. It was found that all subjects who could state the principle clearly, could precisely and accurately recognize the correct fluid level. More than half the subjects did not know the principle and all these subjects showed evidence in their judgments of only the crudest perceptual schema. PMID:652472

  16. Mountain Pine Beetle Impact on Stand-level Water Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reilly, J. A.; Woods, S.

    2012-12-01

    The recent mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic has disturbed millions of hectares throughout the Rocky Mountain West. The most persistent effects of MPB infestation on the stand-level water balance are likely concomitant with the grey stage of the disturbance cycle. The grey stage occurs within 3 to 5 years of the initial infestation after the needles of an infected tree have turned red and fallen off due to tree death. Large numbers of grey-stage trees in a stand may remain on the landscape for up to 20 years, until windthrow or another disturbance sends them to the forest floor. The greater temporal persistence of the grey stage over antecedent stages suggested that an examination of the grey stage would best capture long-term effects of MPB disturbance on the forest water balance. In this study we hypothesized that changes to the forest canopy associated with MPB disturbance may affect the stand-level water balance. The needle loss and windthrow that follows MPB disturbance is expected to increase the amount of precipitation reaching the forest floor. Additionally, overstory evapotranspiration (ET) demand is expected to decrease as MPB-induced tree mortality increases within disturbed stands. The expected cumulative effect of MPB disturbance on the stand-level water balance is an increase in soil moisture due to increased precipitation inputs and reduced overstory ET. This study was conducted in Lubrecht Experimental Forest and adjacent Bureau of Land Management areas near Missoula, Montana. Sub-canopy measurements of soil moisture, precipitation (rain and snow water equivalent), overstory transpiration and micro-meteorological data (net radiation, temperature, wind speed, etc.) were collected in three 50 x 50 meter plots. The plots consisted of a uniform stand of grey-stage lodgepole pine, a uniform stand of non-infested lodgepole pine, and a recent clear-cut stand, which served as a control unit. Water balances for each stand were constructed using a mass

  17. Effect of pumpage on ground-water levels as modeled in Laramie County, Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crist, Marvin A.

    1980-01-01

    Groundwater is being extensively developed for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use in a 2,320-square mile area in Laramie County, WY., bounded approximately by Horse Creek on the north, Nebraska on the east, Colorado on the south, and pre-Tertiary outcrops on the west. Currently (1977) about 47,300 acres of land are irrigated with groundwater. Groundwater levels are declining in some areas as much as 4 feet per year. The investigation was made to provide State water administrators with data on water-level changes resulting from present (1977) groundwater withdrawals and to provide a means of predicting the future effect of groundwater development. A digital model was developed of the hydrologic system in the post-Cretaceous rocks. The ability of the model to simulate the hydrologic system was determined by comparing the water-level changes measured at 37 observation wells located in areas of irrigation pumping with the water-level changes calculated by the model for 1971-77. Comparison of the measured and calculated changes showed agreement with a root-mean-square deviation of + or - 3.6 feet with 8 feet as the maximum deviation. It is concluded that the model adequately simulates present hydrologic conditions in the post-Cretaceous rocks and may be used to predict the effect of applied stress to the system. (USGS)

  18. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) –Development History, Model Capabilities and Future Enhancements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was initiated in August 1985 to develop new generation water erosion prediction technology for use by federal agencies involved in soil and water conservation and environmental planning and assessment. Developed by USDA-ARS as a replacement for empirically...

  19. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable

  20. Predicting regional episodic acidification of surface waters using empirical models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eshleman, Keith N.

    1988-07-01

    Studies of individual lakes and streams have documented the occurrence of transient, short-term acidification of surface waters during hydrologic events, but a regional assessment of episodic chemical effects has not been made. Application of a two-box mixing model, together with regional chemistry and deposition data, indicates that acidic episodes (acid neutralizing capacity <0) are likely an important regional phenomenon. Population estimates of the total proportion of acidic stream reaches increased by 40-640% in six subrogions of the eastern United States when episodes were taken into account. Data from a small sample of lakes in the Adirondacks (which appear to be representative of the lake population) show that fall "index" acid neutralizing capacity is an excellent predictor of the minimum episodic ANC measured at the outlets of these lakes during spring snowmelt. While 11% of the Adirondack lakes were acidic at fall overturn, a linear regression model predicts that more than 35% were acidic at their outlets during the spring of 1986.

  1. Prediction of projectile ricochet behavior after water impact.

    PubMed

    Baillargeon, Yves; Bergeron, Guy

    2012-11-01

    Although not very common, forensic investigation related to projectile ricochet on water can be required when undesirable collateral damage occurs. Predicting the ricochet behavior of a projectile is challenging owing to numerous parameters involved: impact velocity, incident angle, projectile stability, angular velocity, etc. Ricochet characteristics of different projectiles (K50 BMG, 0.5-cal Ball M2, 0.5-cal AP-T C44, 7.62-mm Ball C21, and 5.56-mm Ball C77) were studied in a pool. The results are presented to assess projectile velocity after ricochet, ricochet angle, and projectile azimuth angle based on impact velocity or incident angle for each projectile type. The azimuth ranges show the highest variability at low postricochet velocity. The critical ricochet angles were ranging from 15 to 30°. The average ricochet angles for all projectiles were pretty close for all projectiles at 2.5 and 10° incident angles for the range of velocities studied. PMID:22536929

  2. A new water level gauge for cold region application

    SciTech Connect

    Shih, H.H.; Moss, M.K.; Dixon, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    The traditional gas purging (bubbler) water level gauge has been widely sued because of its simplicity, ruggedness and ability to operate in areas of ice cover. However, its mechanically-based sensing and recording system and the need for density information to compute water level have caused inconveniences in field operations. This paper describes a new design that records and telemeters digital data and allows computation of water density directly from the pressure measurements. Major measurement error sources are also identified and quantified. The performance in water level measurement is comparable to the National Ocean Service`s standard air acoustic tide gauge. Deriving density from pressure measurements obviates the need for use of a separate conductivity/temperature/depth instrument, which can be prone to fouling. The uncertainty in density determination is less than 0.0005 g/cc in laboratory tests; in the field, it varies from 0.0015 g/cc under low wave conditions to 0.003 g/cc for high wave conditions. The instrument has been successfully deployed at several cold region sites including the Arctic and Antarctic regions.

  3. The Water Resources Division water level recorder rental program; history and operation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jeffers, S.R.; Wagner, C.R.

    1984-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey introduced a new water level recorder in the early 1960 's to automate computation of streamflow records. At the same time it developed a rental program as a means of providing the recorders to field offices. This report documents the experience gained over the past 20 years and offers suggestions for operation of a rental program in the future, as preparation is made to introduce a third generation of water level recorders. (USGS)

  4. Plasticity in leaf-level water relations of tropical rainforest trees in response to experimental drought.

    PubMed

    Binks, Oliver; Meir, Patrick; Rowland, Lucy; da Costa, Antonio Carlos Lola; Vasconcelos, Steel Silva; de Oliveira, Alex Antonio Ribeiro; Ferreira, Leandro; Christoffersen, Bradley; Nardini, Andrea; Mencuccini, Maurizio

    2016-07-01

    The tropics are predicted to become warmer and drier, and understanding the sensitivity of tree species to drought is important for characterizing the risk to forests of climate change. This study makes use of a long-term drought experiment in the Amazon rainforest to evaluate the role of leaf-level water relations, leaf anatomy and their plasticity in response to drought in six tree genera. The variables (osmotic potential at full turgor, turgor loss point, capacitance, elastic modulus, relative water content and saturated water content) were compared between seasons and between plots (control and through-fall exclusion) enabling a comparison between short- and long-term plasticity in traits. Leaf anatomical traits were correlated with water relation parameters to determine whether water relations differed among tissues. The key findings were: osmotic adjustment occurred in response to the long-term drought treatment; species resistant to drought stress showed less osmotic adjustment than drought-sensitive species; and water relation traits were correlated with tissue properties, especially the thickness of the abaxial epidermis and the spongy mesophyll. These findings demonstrate that cell-level water relation traits can acclimate to long-term water stress, and highlight the limitations of extrapolating the results of short-term studies to temporal scales associated with climate change. PMID:27001030

  5. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K... information about RUSLE see the U.S. Department of Agriculture Handbook 703, “Predicting Soil Erosion by...

  6. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R × K... information about RUSLE see the U.S. Department of Agriculture Handbook 703, “Predicting Soil Erosion by...

  7. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  8. Movements of florida apple snails in relation to water levels and drying events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darby, P.C.; Bennetts, R.E.; Miller, S.J.; Percival, H.F.

    2002-01-01

    Florida apple snails (Pomacea Paludosa) apparently have only a limited tolerance to wetland drying events (although little direct evidence exists), but their populations routinely face dry downs under natural and managed water regimes. In this paper, we address speculation that apple snails respond to decreasing water levels and potential drying events by moving toward refugia that remain inundated. We monitored the movements of apple snails in central Florida, USA during drying events at the Blue Cypress Marsh (BC) and at Lake Kissimmee (LK). We monitored the weekly movements of 47 BC snails and 31 LK snails using radio-telemetry. Snails tended to stop moving when water depths were 10 cm. Snails moved along the greatest positive depth gradient (i.e., towards deeper water) when they encountered water depths between 10 and 20 cm. Snails tended to move toward shallower water in water depths ???50 cm, suggesting that snails were avoiding deep water areas such as canals and sloughs. Of the 11 BC snails originally located in the area that eventually went dry, three (27%) were found in deep water refugia by the end of the study. Only one of the 31 LK snails escaped the drying event by moving to deeper water. Our results indicate that some snails may opportunistically escape drying events through movement. The tendency to move toward deeper water was statistically significant and indicates that this behavioral trait might enhance survival when the spatial extent of a dry down is limited. However, as water level falls below 10 cm, snails stop moving and become stranded. As the spatial extent of a dry down increases, we predict that the number of snails stranded would increase proportionally. Stranded Pomacea paludosa must contend with dry marsh conditions, possibly by aestivation. Little more than anecdotal information has been published on P. paludosa aestivation, but it is a common adaptation among other apple snails (Caenogastropoda: Ampullaridae). ?? 2002, The Society

  9. Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

    1989-01-01

    An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

  10. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics.

    PubMed

    Leppi, Jason C; Arp, Christopher D; Whitman, Matthew S

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish. PMID:26467673

  11. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leppi, Jason C.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish.

  12. Development of predictive models for determining enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zaihong; Deng, Zhiqiang; Rusch, Kelly A

    2012-02-01

    The US EPA BEACH Act requires beach managers to issue swimming advisories when water quality standards are exceeded. While a number of methods/models have been proposed to meet the BEACH Act requirement, no systematic comparisons of different methods against the same data series are available in terms of relative performance of existing methods. This study presents and compares three models for nowcasting and forecasting enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches in Louisiana, USA. One was developed using the artificial neural network (ANN) in MATLAB Toolbox and the other two were based on the US EPA Virtual Beach (VB) Program. A total of 944 sets of environmental and bacteriological data were utilized. The data were collected and analyzed weekly during the swimming season (May-October) at six sites of the Holly Beach by Louisiana Beach Monitoring Program in the six year period of May 2005-October 2010. The ANN model includes 15 readily available environmental variables such as salinity, water temperature, wind speed and direction, tide level and type, weather type, and various combinations of antecedent rainfalls. The ANN model was trained, validated, and tested using 308, 103, and 103 data sets (collected in 2007, 2008, and 2009) with an average linear correlation coefficient (LCC) of 0.857 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.336. The two VB models, including a linear transformation-based model and a nonlinear transformation-based model, were constructed using the same data sets. The linear VB model with 6 input variables achieved an LCC of 0.230 and an RMSE of 1.302 while the nonlinear VB model with 5 input variables produced an LCC of 0.337 and an RMSE of 1.205. In order to assess the predictive performance of the ANN and VB models, hindcasting was conducted using a total of 430 sets of independent environmental and bacteriological data collected at six Holly Beach sites in 2005, 2006, and 2010. The hindcasting results show that the ANN model is capable of

  13. Synthesis of a simplified water use simulation model for predicting wheat yields

    SciTech Connect

    Arora, V.K.; Prihar, S.S.; Gajri, P.R.

    1987-05-01

    A simplified water use simulation model has been developed that predicts components of field water balance for wheat using information on atmospheric evaporative demand, extractable water and draining characteristics of soil profile, leaf area development, root growth characteristics, and soil wetting events. The model accounts for soil water flow with redistributing water below field capacity and estimates layerwise water use. Predicted evaportranspiration and soil water content in different soil layers matched well with the measured values for a wide range of water management situations and the root-mean-square error varied between approx. 10 and 15%. Transpiration-yield relations, estimated through a multiplicative approach, showed that booting-heading phase of wheat development was most sensitive to water stress. Validation of this model against independent data was reasonably well, thereby suggesting that the model dependably predicts grain yield. Small data required for the operation of the model increase its capability as management tool for efficient on-farm water use.

  14. Investigation of natural radioactivity levels in water around Kadugli, Sudan.

    PubMed

    Osman, Alfatih A A; Salih, Isam; Shaddad, Ibrahim A; El Din, Saif; Siddeeg, M B; Eltayeb, Hatem; Idriss, Hajo; Hamza, Walid; Yousif, E H

    2008-11-01

    Surface water from Miri Lake and groundwater from around Kadugli (West-Central Sudan) obtained by means of hand-pumps was analysed for (238)U, (226)Ra, (222)Rn, and (232)Th activity concentrations. The surface water showed very low levels of radionuclide concentrations: <1.0-7.5, 8.5-16.5, <1.6, and <0.1-0.39 mBq L(-1) for (238)U, (226)Ra, (222)Rn, and (232)Th, respectively. Groundwater revealed a significant amount of natural radioactivity (16.1-1720, 7.7-14.3, 3000-139,000, <0.1-39 mBq L(-1)) respectively. The overall annual effective dose was below the WHO reference dose level of 0.1 mSv yr(-1) except in one groundwater sample with an associated dose of 0.7 mSv yr(-1). PMID:18513978

  15. [EXPERIMENTAL GROUNDS ON POSSIBILITY TO MAKE AND TO USE PREDICTION MODELS OF PESTICIDES DESIGN STANDARD IN THE WATER OF PONDS USED FOR HOUSEHOLD AND DRINKING WATER SUPPLY].

    PubMed

    Vavrinevych, O P; Omel'chuk, S T

    2015-01-01

    Taking into account the fact that current calculation methods for substantiation of standards in the water of water reservoirs valid in Ukraine are outdated the aim of our research was to scientifically substantiate the possibility to make and to use prediction models of pesticides design standard in the water of ponds used for household and drinking water supply. Array of experimentally substantiated and approved to use in Ukraine maximum allowable concentrations (MAC) of organic pesticides active ingredients in the water was analyzed (n = 201). Analysis of dependence between MAC value of pesticides in the water and its physical and chemical properties, indices of ecotoxicological hazard and persistency in the water was carried out using correlation and regression analysis methods. Twelve regression equations to establish design value of pesticides MAC in the water were proposed on the grounds of performed analysis. The results of reliability testing of proposed procedure on pesticides design tentatively allowable levels (TAL) in the water indicate on needs to apply the least value of TAL obtained in the process of calculations using proposed equations. It was proved that mathematical models proposed for prediction of pesticide design standard in the water are adequate and significant by Fisher's test (P < 0.05). Proposed algorithm allows considerably simplify procedure of obtaining temporary hygienic standard in the water for new pesticides. PMID:27491169

  16. Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  17. Multi-level learning: improving the prediction of protein, domain and residue interactions by allowing information flow between levels

    PubMed Central

    Yip, Kevin Y; Kim, Philip M; McDermott, Drew; Gerstein, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Background Proteins interact through specific binding interfaces that contain many residues in domains. Protein interactions thus occur on three different levels of a concept hierarchy: whole-proteins, domains, and residues. Each level offers a distinct and complementary set of features for computationally predicting interactions, including functional genomic features of whole proteins, evolutionary features of domain families and physical-chemical features of individual residues. The predictions at each level could benefit from using the features at all three levels. However, it is not trivial as the features are provided at different granularity. Results To link up the predictions at the three levels, we propose a multi-level machine-learning framework that allows for explicit information flow between the levels. We demonstrate, using representative yeast interaction networks, that our algorithm is able to utilize complementary feature sets to make more accurate predictions at the three levels than when the three problems are approached independently. To facilitate application of our multi-level learning framework, we discuss three key aspects of multi-level learning and the corresponding design choices that we have made in the implementation of a concrete learning algorithm. 1) Architecture of information flow: we show the greater flexibility of bidirectional flow over independent levels and unidirectional flow; 2) Coupling mechanism of the different levels: We show how this can be accomplished via augmenting the training sets at each level, and discuss the prevention of error propagation between different levels by means of soft coupling; 3) Sparseness of data: We show that the multi-level framework compounds data sparsity issues, and discuss how this can be dealt with by building local models in information-rich parts of the data. Our proof-of-concept learning algorithm demonstrates the advantage of combining levels, and opens up opportunities for further

  18. Predicting Homework Time Management at the Secondary School Level: A Multilevel Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to test empirical models of variables posited to predict homework time management at the secondary school level. Student- and class-level predictors of homework time management were analyzed in a survey of 1895 students from 111 classes. Most of the variance in homework time management occurred at the student level,…

  19. MATERNAL SELF-REPORTED DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS AND MATERNAL CORTISOL LEVELS INTERACT TO PREDICT INFANT CORTISOL LEVELS.

    PubMed

    Khoury, Jennifer E; Gonzalez, Andrea; Levitan, Robert; Masellis, Mario; Basile, Vincenzo; Atkinson, Leslie

    2016-01-01

    Three basic findings have emerged from research on maternal depressive symptoms and offspring hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal functioning: (a) Mothers' depressive symptoms are positively associated with their offsprings' cortisol stress response, (b) numerous individual and interpersonal maternal characteristics moderate this association, and (c) maternal and infant cortisol levels are highly correlated. In combination, these findings have suggested that maternal cortisol levels may moderate the relation between maternal depressive symptoms and infant cortisol responsivity; the current study assessed this hypothesis. Participants were 297 mother-infant dyads who were recruited from the community. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed via self-report. Dyads participated in two differentially stressful infant challenges when infants were 16 and 17 months old. Mother and infant salivary cortisol was collected before and after challenges. Results indicate that maternal cortisol levels moderated associations between maternal depressive symptoms and infant cortisol levels across both challenges. Infants showed higher cortisol levels if their mothers had both higher depressive symptoms and higher cortisol levels, as compared to infants of mothers with higher depressive symptoms and lower cortisol, and to infants of mothers with lower depressive symptoms and either higher or lower cortisol levels. We discuss findings in relation to environmental and biological factors that may contribute to the intergenerational transmission of depressive symptoms. PMID:26939829

  20. Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

    2014-01-01

    Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

  1. Prediction of water quality parameters from SAR images by using multivariate and texture analysis models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shareef, Muntadher A.; Toumi, Abdelmalek; Khenchaf, Ali

    2014-10-01

    Remote sensing is one of the most important tools for monitoring and assisting to estimate and predict Water Quality parameters (WQPs). The traditional methods used for monitoring pollutants are generally relied on optical images. In this paper, we present a new approach based on the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images which we used to map the region of interest and to estimate the WQPs. To achieve this estimation quality, the texture analysis is exploited to improve the regression models. These models are established and developed to estimate six common concerned water quality parameters from texture parameters extracted from Terra SAR-X data. In this purpose, the Gray Level Cooccurrence Matrix (GLCM) is used to estimate several regression models using six texture parameters such as contrast, correlation, energy, homogeneity, entropy and variance. For each predicted model, an accuracy value is computed from the probability value given by the regression analysis model of each parameter. In order to validate our approach, we have used tow dataset of water region for training and test process. To evaluate and validate the proposed model, we applied it on the training set. In the last stage, we used the fuzzy K-means clustering to generalize the water quality estimation on the whole of water region extracted from segmented Terra SAR-X image. Also, the obtained results showed that there are a good statistical correlation between the in situ water quality and Terra SAR-X data, and also demonstrated that the characteristics obtained by texture analysis are able to monitor and predicate the distribution of WQPs in large rivers with high accuracy.

  2. Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

    1980-01-01

    The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

  3. Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Wetterhall, F.; Khan, V.; Hagemann, S.; Lahijani, H.

    2014-07-01

    The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores.

  4. Remotely mapping river water quality using multivariate regression with prediction validation.

    SciTech Connect

    Stork, Christopher Lyle; Autry, Bradley C.

    2005-07-01

    Remote spectral sensing offers an attractive means of mapping river water quality over wide spatial regions. While previous research has focused on development of spectral indices and models to predict river water quality based on remote images, little attention has been paid to subsequent validation of these predictions. To address this oversight, we describe a retrospective analysis of remote, multispectral Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) images of the Ohio River and its Licking River and Little Miami River tributaries. In conjunction with the CASI acquisitions, ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity were made for a small set of locations in the Ohio River. Partial least squares regression models relating the remote river images to ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity for the Ohio River were developed. Employing these multivariate models, chlorophyll-a concentrations and turbidity levels were predicted in river pixels lacking ground truth measurements, generating detailed estimated water quality maps. An important but often neglected step in the regression process is to validate prediction results using a spectral residual statistic. For both the chlorophyll-a and turbidity regression models, a spectral residual value was calculated for each river pixel and compared to the associated statistical confidence limit for the model. These spectral residual statistic results revealed that while the chlorophyll-a and turbidity models could validly be applied to a vast majority of Ohio River and Licking River pixels, application of these models to Little Miami River pixels was inappropriate due to an unmodeled source of spectral variation.

  5. Plant physiological models of heat, water and photoinhibition stress for climate change modelling and agricultural prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolas, B.; Gilbert, M. E.; Paw U, K. T.

    2015-12-01

    Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) models are based upon well understood steady state photosynthetic physiology - the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model (FvCB). However, representations of physiological stress and damage have not been successfully integrated into SVAT models. Generally, it has been assumed that plants will strive to conserve water at higher temperatures by reducing stomatal conductance or adjusting osmotic balance, until potentially damaging temperatures and the need for evaporative cooling become more important than water conservation. A key point is that damage is the result of combined stresses: drought leads to stomatal closure, less evaporative cooling, high leaf temperature, less photosynthetic dissipation of absorbed energy, all coupled with high light (photosynthetic photon flux density; PPFD). This leads to excess absorbed energy by Photosystem II (PSII) and results in photoinhibition and damage, neither are included in SVAT models. Current representations of photoinhibition are treated as a function of PPFD, not as a function of constrained photosynthesis under heat or water. Thus, it seems unlikely that current models can predict responses of vegetation to climate variability and change. We propose a dynamic model of damage to Rubisco and RuBP-regeneration that accounts, mechanistically, for the interactions between high temperature, light, and constrained photosynthesis under drought. Further, these predictions are illustrated by key experiments allowing model validation. We also integrated this new framework within the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm (ACASA). Preliminary results show that our approach can be used to predict reasonable photosynthetic dynamics. For instances, a leaf undergoing one day of drought stress will quickly decrease its maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), but it won't recover to unstressed levels for several days. Consequently, cumulative effect of photoinhibition on photosynthesis can cause

  6. Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

  7. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scibek, J.; Allen, D. M.

    2006-11-01

    A methodology is developed for linking climate models and groundwater models to investigate future impacts of climate change on groundwater resources. An unconfined aquifer, situated near Grand Forks in south central British Columbia, Canada, is used to test the methodology. Climate change scenarios from the Canadian Global Coupled Model 1 (CGCM1) model runs are downscaled to local conditions using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and the change factors are extracted and applied in LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and then input to the recharge model. The recharge model simulated the direct recharge to the aquifer from infiltration of precipitation and consisted of spatially distributed recharge zones, represented in the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) hydrologic model linked to a geographic information system (GIS). A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model, implemented in MODFLOW, is then used to simulate four climate scenarios in 1-year runs (1961-1999 present, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) and compare groundwater levels to present. The effect of spatial distribution of recharge on groundwater levels, compared to that of a single uniform recharge zone, is much larger than that of temporal variation in recharge, compared to a mean annual recharge representation. The predicted future climate for the Grand Forks area from the downscaled CGCM1 model will result in more recharge to the unconfined aquifer from spring to the summer season. However, the overall effect of recharge on the water balance is small because of dominant river-aquifer interactions and river water recharge.

  8. Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring…

  9. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuels, Rana

    Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall

  11. Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillies, Robert R.; Chung, Oi-Yu; Simon Wang, S.-Y.; DeRose, R. Justin; Sun, Yan

    2015-10-01

    Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah - the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere - is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover less than a century, forecasting the predominant yet under-represented decadal variability of the GSL level with such relatively short instrumental records poses a challenge. To overcome data limitations, this study assesses two options: (1) developing a model using the observational GSL elevation record of 137 years to predict itself; (2) incorporating the recently reconstructed GSL elevation that utilized 576 years worth of tree-ring records into the predictive model. It was found that the statistical models that combined the tree-ring reconstructed data with the observed data outperformed those that did not, in terms of reducing the root mean squared errors. Such predictive models can serve as a means toward practical water risk management.

  12. Predicting suitable habitat for the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa (Scleractinia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Andrew J.; Wisshak, Max; Orr, James C.; Murray Roberts, J.

    2008-08-01

    Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) was applied to the reef framework-forming cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa. The environmental tolerances of this species were assessed using readily available oceanographic data, including physical, chemical, and biological variables. L. pertusa was found at mean depths of 468 and 480 m on the regional and global scales and occupied a niche that included higher than average current speed and productivity, supporting the theory that their limited food supply is locally enhanced by currents. Most records occurred in areas with a salinity of 35, mean temperatures of 6.2-6.7 °C and dissolved oxygen levels of 6.0-6.2 ml l -1. The majority of records were found in areas that were saturated with aragonite but had low concentration of nutrients (silicate, phosphate, and nitrate). Suitable habitat for L. pertusa was predicted using ENFA on a global and a regional scale that incorporated the north-east Atlantic Ocean. Regional prediction was reliable due to numerous presence points throughout the area, whereas global prediction was less reliable due to the paucity of presence data outside of the north-east Atlantic. However, the species niche was supported at each spatial scale. Predicted maps at the global scale reinforced the general consensus that the North Atlantic Ocean is a key region in the worldwide distribution of L. pertusa. Predictive modelling is an approach that can be applied to cold-water coral species to locate areas of suitable habitat for further study. It may also prove a useful tool to assist spatial planning of offshore marine protected areas. However, issues with eco-geographical datasets, including their coarse resolution and limited geographical coverage, currently restrict the scope of this approach.

  13. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A; Ge, Y

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH/NCI under grant

  14. Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

    1984-01-01

    The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

  15. Demonstration of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) internet interface and services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based FORTRAN computer simulation program for prediction of runoff and soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. To effectively run the WEPP model and interpret results additional software has been de...

  16. Salinization processes in an alluvial coastal lowland plain and effect of sea water level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Don, Nguyen Cao; Hang, Nguyen Thi Minh; Araki, Hiroyuki; Yamanishi, Hiroyuki; Koga, Kenichi

    2006-03-01

    In coastal areas, groundwater and aquifer systems are easily prone to pollution and contamination. Moreover, sea level rises also threaten the viability of many coastal zones and small islands. In the Shiroishi lowland plain, southwestern Kyushu Island of Japan, some environmental problems such as land subsidence and salinity intrusion due to over pumping of groundwater have long been recognized as water problems and become causes for public concern. In this study, an integrated surface and groundwater model was established and applied to the Shiroishi site to simulate groundwater flow hydraulics and predict the salinity intrusion process in the alluvial lowland plain. The simulated results show that groundwater levels in the aquifer greatly vary in response to varying climatic and pumping conditions. It is also found that sea water intrusion would be expected along the coast if the current rates of groundwater exploitation continue. Furthermore, sea water intrusion with a relative rise in sea water level due to aquifer compression and global climatic change was also considered. As a result, sea water intrusion appears to extend much farther in land from the coast compared to a reference case. The study also suggests a possible alternative to mitigate the inverse effects by pumping groundwater.

  17. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 4, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.; Reed, J.E.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 4 at realined mile 154 (kilometer 250) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 115 feet (35 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage ranging from 24 to 4.5 feet (7 to 1.4 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more between the Red River and Bayou Pierre from the dam to Coushatta , and below Campti, east of the river. The potentiometric surface may be at or near land surface in low areas between the Red River and Bayou Pierre, and above land surface locally upstream from the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced to less than half the present range.

  18. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 2, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 1 at mile 44 (kilometer 71) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 40 feet (12.2 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage of 9 feet (2.7 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more within 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) of the river. The potentiometric surface may be near land surface in low-lying areas, and above land surface along the course of drainage features near the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced. (Woodard-USGS)

  19. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 3, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.; Terry, J.E.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 3 at realined mile 111 (kilometer 179) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 87 feet (27 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage ranging from 21 to 3.5 feet (l.4 to 1.1 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised to near land surface in low areas east of the river from the damsite to Aloha and in a 0.5-mile (0.8-kilometer) strip along the west side extending 9 miles (14 kilometers) above the dam. The potentiometric surface may be above land surface locally near the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced to less than half the preconstruction range.

  20. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 2, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 2 at mile 87 (kilometer 140) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 58 feet (17.7 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage of 12.5 feet (3.8 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more within 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) of the river and will be near land surface in low areas. The potentiometric surface may be as much as 1 to 2 feet (0.3 to 0.6 meter) above land surface south of Latanier along Chatlin Lake Canal and south of the Annandale area of Alexandria. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced.

  1. Screening Experiments for Removal of Low-Level Tritiated Water

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Yun Mi; Baney, Ronald; Powers, Kevin; Koopman, Ben; Tulenko, James

    2005-03-15

    Screening experiments for low levels of tritiated water (HTO) remediation based upon selective adsorption/desorption mechanisms utilizing equilibrium isotope effects have been carried out. Several organic and inorganic high surface area materials were investigated to assess their ability to selectively adsorb low concentrations of HTO. Ion-exchange resins with cation functionalities, chitosan, sodium alginate, and several inorganic media modified with metal cations exhibited promising results. Biomaterials, for example, chitosan and modified alginate, demonstrated positive results. Based on the literature and our preliminary testing, we postulate four possible mechanisms for selected tritium adsorption: hydrogen ion exchange, HTO coordination with surface cation sites, hydrogen bonding to surface basic sites, and secondary hydrogen bonding (structural water) in fine pores.

  2. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y.; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P.; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods. PMID:26936420

  3. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods. PMID:26936420

  4. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y.; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P.; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-03-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods.

  5. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, effects of pumping on water levels and water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1982-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the coastal area of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin in southern California. The water-level declines are the result of increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines in the main water-bearing zones to altitudes below sea level. Consequently, the ground-water basin is threatened with salt-water intrusion if the present pumpage is maintained or increased. Water-quality data suggest that salt-water intrusion has already degraded the water yielded from six coastal wells. Chloride concentrations in the six wells ranged from about 400 to 4,000 milligrams per liter. Municipal supply wells near the coast currently yield water of suitable quality for domestic use. There is, however, no known physical barrier to the continued inland advance salt water. Management alternatives to control salt-water intrusion in the Santa Barbara area include (1) decreasing municipal pumping, (2) increasing the quantity of water available for recharge by releasing surplus water to Mission Creek, (3) artificially recharing the basin using injection wells, and (4) locating municipal supply wells farther from the coast and farther apart to minimize drawdown. (USGS)

  6. Wheat: Its water use, production and disease detection and prediction. [Kansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanemasu, E. T. (Principal Investigator); Lenhert, D.; Niblett, C.; Manges, H.; Eversmeyer, M. G.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Discussed in this report are: (1) the effects of wheat disease on water use and yield; and (2) the use of ERTS-1 imagery in the evaluation of wheat growth and in the detection of disease severity. Leaf area index was linearly correlated with ratios MSS4:MSS5 and MSS5:MSS6. In an area of severe wheat streak mosaic virus infected fields, correlations of ERTS-1 digital counts with wheat yields and disease severity levels were significant at the 5% level for MSS bands 4 and 5 and band ratios 4/6 and 4/7. Data collection platforms were used to gather meteorological data for the early prediction of rust severity and economic loss.

  7. A predictive coding framework for rapid neural dynamics during sentence-level language comprehension.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Ashley G; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2015-07-01

    There is a growing literature investigating the relationship between oscillatory neural dynamics measured using electroencephalography (EEG) and/or magnetoencephalography (MEG), and sentence-level language comprehension. Recent proposals have suggested a strong link between predictive coding accounts of the hierarchical flow of information in the brain, and oscillatory neural dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges. We propose that findings relating beta and gamma oscillations to sentence-level language comprehension might be unified under such a predictive coding account. Our suggestion is that oscillatory activity in the beta frequency range may reflect both the active maintenance of the current network configuration responsible for representing the sentence-level meaning under construction, and the top-down propagation of predictions to hierarchically lower processing levels based on that representation. In addition, we suggest that oscillatory activity in the low and middle gamma range reflect the matching of top-down predictions with bottom-up linguistic input, while evoked high gamma might reflect the propagation of bottom-up prediction errors to higher levels of the processing hierarchy. We also discuss some of the implications of this predictive coding framework, and we outline ideas for how these might be tested experimentally. PMID:25840879

  8. A screening level fate model of organic contaminants from advanced water treatment in a potable water supply reservoir.

    PubMed

    Hawker, Darryl W; Cumming, Janet L; Neale, Peta A; Bartkow, Michael E; Escher, Beate I

    2011-01-01

    Augmentation of potable water sources by planned indirect potable reuse of wastewater is being widely considered to address growing water shortages. Environmental buffers such as lakes and dams may act as one of a series of barriers to potable water contamination stemming from micropollutants in wastewater. In South-East Queensland, Australia, current government policy is to begin indirect potable reuse of water from reverse osmosis equipped advanced water treatment plants (AWTPs) when the combined capacity of its major storages is at 40% capacity. A total of 15 organic contaminants including NDMA and bisphenol A have been publically reported as detected in recycled water from one of South-East Queensland's AWTPs, while another 98 chemicals were analysed for, but found to be below their detection limit. To assess the natural attenuation in Lake Wivenhoe, a Level III fugacity based evaluative fate model was constructed using the maximum concentrations of these contaminants detected as input data. A parallel aquivalence based model was constructed for those contaminants, such as dichloroacetic acid, dalapon and triclopyr, which are ionised in the environment of Lake Wivenhoe. A total of 247 organic chemicals of interest, including disinfection by-products, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, xenoestrogens and industrial chemicals, were evaluated with the model to assess their potential for natural attenuation. Out of the 15 detected chemicals, trihalomethanes are expected to volatilise with concentrations in the outflow from the dam approximately 400 times lower than influent from the AWTPs. Transformation processes in water are likely to be more significant for NDMA and pharmaceuticals such as salicylic acid and paracetamol as well as for caffeine and the herbicides dalapon and triclopyr. For hydrophobic contaminants such as cholesterol and phenolic xenoestrogens such as 4-nonylphenol, 4-t-octylphenol and bisphenol A, equilibrium between water

  9. Application of data assimilation for improving forecast of water levels and residual currents in Singapore regional waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karri, Rama Rao; Badwe, Abhijit; Wang, Xuan; El Serafy, Ghada; Sumihar, Julius; Babovic, Vladan; Gerritsen, Herman

    2013-01-01

    Hydrodynamic models are commonly used for predicting water levels and currents in the deep ocean, ocean margins and shelf seas. Their accuracy is typically limited by factors, such as the complexity of the coastal geometry and bathymetry, plus the uncertainty in the flow forcing (deep ocean tide, winds and pressure). In Southeast Asian waters with its strongly hydrodynamic characteristics, the lack of detailed marine observations (bathymetry and tides) for model validation is an additional factor limiting flow representation. This paper deals with the application of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based data assimilation with the purpose of improving the deterministic model forecast. The efficacy of the EnKF is analysed via a twin experiment conducted with the 2D barotropic Singapore regional model. The results show that the applied data assimilation can improve the forecasts significantly in this complex flow regime.

  10. Water-Level Measurements for the Coastal Plain Aquifers of South Carolina Prior to Development

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aucott, Walter R.; Speiran, Gary K.

    1984-01-01

    Tabulations of water-level measurements for the Coastal Plain aquifers of South Carolina representing water levels prior to man-made development are presented. Included with the tabulations are local well number, location, land-surface altitude, well depth, screened interval, depth to water, water- level altitude, and date measured. These water-level measurements were used in compiling regional potentiometric maps for the Coastal Plain aquifers. This data set will be useful in the planning for future water-resource development.

  11. Concurrent and Predictive Relations between Hormone Levels and Social-Emotional Functioning in Early Adolescence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nottelmann, Editha D.; And Others

    Hormone levels and changes in hormone levels were evaluated three times across a 1-year period as concurrent and predictive correlates of the socio-emotional functioning of 56 boys 10- to 14-years-old and 52 girls 9- to 14-years-old who represented the five stages of Tanner's criteria of pubertal development. The hormone measures were serum levels…

  12. Assimilation of spatially distributed water levels into a shallow-water flood model. Part II: Use of a remote sensing image of Mosel River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hostache, Renaud; Lai, Xijun; Monnier, Jérôme; Puech, Christian

    2010-09-01

    SummaryWith rapid flood extent mapping capabilities, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images of river inundation prove to be very relevant to operational flood management. In this context, a recently developed method provides distributed water levels from SAR images. Furthermore, in view of improving numerical flood prediction, a variational data assimilation method (4D-var) using such distributed water level has been developed in Part I of this study. This method combines an optimal sense remote sensing data (distributed water levels extracted from spatial images) and a 2D shallow water model. In the present article (Part II of the study), we also derive water levels with a ±40 cm average vertical uncertainty from a RADARSAT-1 image of a Mosel River flood event (1997, France). Assimilated in a 2D shallow water hydraulic model using the 4D-var developed method, these SAR derived spatially distributed water levels prove to be capable of enhancing model calibration. Indeed, the assimilation process can identify optimal Manning friction coefficients, at least in the river channel. Moreover, used as a guide for sensitivity analysis, remote sensing water levels allow also identifying some areas in the floodplain and the channel where Manning friction coefficients are homogeneous. This allows basing the spatial segmentation of roughness coefficient on floodplain hydraulic functioning.

  13. Liquid-Vapor Equilibrium Isotopic Fractionation of Water. How well can classical water models predict it?

    SciTech Connect

    Chialvo, Ariel A; Horita, Juske

    2009-01-01

    The liquid-vapor equilibrium isotopic fractionation of water is determined by molecular-based simulation, via Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo and isothermal-isochoric molecular dynamics involving two radically different but realistic models, the extended simple point charge (SPC/E) and the Gaussian charge polarizable (GCP) models. The predicted temperature dependence of the liquid-vapor equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors for H 2 18O / H 2 16O, H 2 17O / H 2 16O, and 2H 1H 16O / 1H 2 16O are compared against the most accurate experimental datasets to assess the ability of these intermolecular potential models to describe quantum effects according to the Kirkwood-Wigner free energy perturbation ! 2 !expansion. Predictions of the vapor pressure isotopic effect for the H 2 18O / H 2 16O and H 2 17O / H 2 16O pairs are also presented in comparison with experimental data and two recently proposed thermodynamic modeling approaches. Finally, the simulation results are used to discuss some approximations behind the microscopic interpretation of isotopic fractionation based on the underlying roto-translational coupling.

  14. Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-06-01

    Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries.

  15. Prediction of noise levels and annoyance from aircraft run-ups at Vancouver International Airport.

    PubMed

    Scherebnyj, Katrina; Hodgson, Murray

    2007-10-01

    Annoyance complaints resulting from engine run-ups have been increasing at Vancouver International Airport for several years. To assist the Airport in managing run-up noise levels, a prediction tool based on a Green's function parabolic equation (GFPE) model has been consolidated, evaluated, and applied. It was extended to include more realistic atmospheric and ground input parameters. Measurements were made of the noise-radiation characteristics of a CRJ200 jet aircraft. The GFPE model was validated by comparing predictions with results in the literature. A sensitivity analysis showed that predicted levels are relatively insensitive to small variations in geometry and ground impedance, but relatively sensitive to variations in wind speed, atmosphere type, and aircraft heading and power setting. Predicted noise levels were compared with levels measured at noise monitoring terminals. For the four cases for which all input information was available, agreement was within 10 dBA. For events for which some information had to be estimated, predictions were within 20 dBA. The predicted annoyance corresponding to the run-up events considered ranged from 1.8% to 9.5% of people awoken, suggesting that noise complaints can be expected. PMID:17902830

  16. Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula.

    PubMed

    Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-06-01

    Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries. PMID:26487352

  17. Comparative Analysis of Seepage Losses From Nighttime Water Level Changes and Water Balance Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, A.; Shukla, S.; Wu, C.

    2013-12-01

    Several techniques including Darcy's theory of one and two dimensional groundwater flow, seepage meters, and water balance have been used in the past to estimate seepage from impoundments such as reservoirs, ponds, and constructed wetlands. These methods result in varying level of errors in seepage estimates depending on method and biogeophysical setting to which they are applied. In this study, we explore a simple yet effective method of estimating groundwater fluxes for two stormwater impoundments (SIs) and a partially drained wetland located in agricultural areas using diurnal changes in surface water levels inside these systems. Days with no inflow, outflow, and rainfall were selected to minimize the effect of the error associated water balance components on seepage estimation. Difference in water levels between 20:00 hrs and 5:00 hrs was calculated for the selected days. Only nighttime change was considered keeping in mind the fact that evapotranspiration is negligible during night and hence, the change in water levels can be attributed to seepage alone. Seepage from the analysis of night-time change in the water levels was compared to the estimates from the water balance method with seepage being the residual component of the balance. Results show that seepage constitutes a large part of total outflow from the impoundments (29% and 17% for SI1 during 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 respectively, 30% for SI2 during 2009-2010 and seepage was greater than the total surface water outflow from SI2 during 2010-2011). Accuracy of this method varied from 5% to 41% for first and 4% to 29% for the second SI. Considering that errors as high as 100% have been reported with the use of Darcy's approach, the errors from our method are lower. The lower errors combined with ease of application without using the hydraulic conductivity values makes our approach feasible for other similar systems. Improved seepage estimate from the proposed method will result in quantification of

  18. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LEVELS OF HETEROTROPHIC BACTERIA AND WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conventional plating methods were used to quantify heterotrophic bacteria from a drinking water distribution system. Three media, plate count agar (PCA), R2A agar and sheep blood agar (TSA-SB) were used to determine heterotrophic plate count (HPC) levels. Grab samples were collec...

  19. Climate science: Water's past revisited to predict its future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirby, Matthew E.

    2016-04-01

    A reconstruction of 1,200 years of water's history in the Northern Hemisphere, based on proxy data, fuels the debate about whether anthropogenic climate change affected twentieth-century precipitation. See Letter p.94

  20. Low leptin levels predict amenorrhea in underweight and eating disordered females.

    PubMed

    Köpp, W; Blum, W F; von Prittwitz, S; Ziegler, A; Lübbert, H; Emons, G; Herzog, W; Herpertz, S; Deter, H C; Remschmidt, H; Hebebrand, J

    1997-07-01

    Evidence that leptin plays an important role in reproductive function is accumulating rapidly. We hypothesized that low leptin synthesis is associated with amenorrhea. We therefore determined serum leptin levels in 43 underweight female students, who were screened for lifetime occurrence of amenorrhea. We assessed the predictive value of leptin, body mass index (BMI), fat mass and percent body fat, respectively, for lifetime occurrence of amenorrea. Factors predicting amenorrhea were tested for their capability to predict current amenorrhea in a second cohort of 63 inpatients with anorexia nervosa (AN) or bulimia nervosa (BN). Furthermore, the relationships between serum leptin levels and of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), estradiol and progesterone, respectively, were evaluated. Only leptin predicted lifetime occurrence of amenorrhea in the student cohort. The critical leptin level was in the range of 1.85 micrograms L-1. This level served to largely separate anorectic from bulimic patients. In patients with AN mean serum log10 leptin levels over the first 4 weeks of inpatient treatment were correlated with mean FSH, LH and estradiol levels, respectively. Evidently, a critical leptin level is needed to maintain menstruation. In affluent populations eating disorders are likely to be a major cause of a low leptin synthesis. PMID:9246675

  1. Responses of Water and Salt Parameters to Groundwater Levels for Soil Columns Planted with Tamarix chinensis

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Jiangbao; Zhao, Ximei; Chen, Yinping; Fang, Ying; Zhao, Ziguo

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater is the main water resource for plant growth and development in the saline soil of the Yellow River Delta in China. To investigate the variabilities and distributions of soil water and salt contents at various groundwater level (GL), soil columns with planting Tamarix chinensis Lour were established at six different GL. The results demonstrated the following: With increasing GL, the relative soil water content (RWC) declined significantly, whereas the salt content (SC) and absolute soil solution concentration (CS) decreased after the initial increase in the different soil profiles. A GL of 1.2 m was the turning point for variations in the soil water and salt contents, and it represented the highest GL that could maintain the soil surface moist within the soil columns. Both the SC and CS reached the maximum levels in these different soil profiles at a GL of 1.2 m. With the raise of soil depth, the RWC increased significantly, whereas the SC increased after an initial decrease. The mean SC values reached 0.96% in the top soil layer; however, the rates at which the CS and RWC decreased with the GL were significantly reduced. The RWC and SC presented the greatest variations at the medium (0.9–1.2 m) and shallow water levels (0.6 m) respectively, whereas the CS presented the greatest variation at the deep water level (1.5–1.8 m).The RWC, SC and CS in the soil columns were all closely related to the GL. However, the correlations among the parameters varied greatly within different soil profiles, and the most accurate predictions of the GL were derived from the RWC in the shallow soil layer or the SC in the top soil layer. A GL at 1.5–1.8 m was moderate for planting T. chinensis seedlings under saline groundwater conditions. PMID:26730602

  2. Simulation and prediction of suprapermafrost groundwater level variation in response to climate change using a neural network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Juan; Wang, Genxu; Mao, Tianxu

    2015-10-01

    Suprapermafrost groundwater has an important role in the hydrologic cycle of the permafrost region. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of groundwater systems, which has limited our understanding of permafrost groundwater dynamics. There is still no effective mathematical method and theory to be used for modeling and forecasting the variation in the permafrost groundwater. Two ANN models, one with three input variables (previous groundwater level, temperature and precipitation) and another with two input variables (temperature and precipitation only), were developed to simulate and predict the site-specific suprapermafrost groundwater level on the slope scale. The results indicate that the three input variable ANN model has superior real-time site-specific prediction capability and produces excellent accuracy performance in the simulation and forecasting of the variation in the suprapermafrost groundwater level. However, if there are no field observations of the suprapermafrost groundwater level, the ANN model developed using only the two input variables of the accessible climate data also has good accuracy and high validity in simulating and forecasting the suprapermafrost groundwater level variation to overcome the data limitations and parameter uncertainty. Under scenarios of the temperature increasing by 0.5 or 1.0 °C per 10 years, the suprapermafrost groundwater level is predicted to increase by 1.2-1.4% or 2.5-2.6% per year with precipitation increases of 10-20%, respectively. There were spatial variations in the responses of the suprapermafrost groundwater level to climate change on the slope scale. The variation ratio and the amplitude of the suprapermafrost groundwater level downslope are larger than those on the upper slope under climate warming. The obvious vulnerability and spatial variability of the suprapermafrost groundwater to climate change will impose intensive effects on the water

  3. Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Diffusion in Water-Methanol, Water-Ethanol, and Water-Isopropanol Mixtures using the PC-SAFT Equation of State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Shu; Jiang, Charles; Yan, Yu; Kawaji, Masahiro; Saghir, M. Ziad

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, by combining the PC-SAFT equation of state (EOS) to the thermal diffusion models for non-associating mixtures, the theoretical prediction of thermal diffusion has been carried out for associating fluid mixtures including water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol. At first, the parameters of the PC-SAFT for water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol mixtures are optimized. Then, by comparing the predictive and experimental values of density and residual partial molar enthalpy in water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol mixtures, we demonstrate the capability of PC-SAFT EOS to reproduce reliable thermodynamic properties in these mixtures with a low to moderate water concentration. Finally, with the thermodynamic properties from the PC-SAFT, several thermal diffusion models available in the literature are extended to binary water-alcohol mixtures including water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol. The Firoozabadi model combined with the PC-SAFT EOS has shown an effective capability for predicting mixtures with a low to moderate water concentration.

  4. Project Water Science. General Science High School Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Water Education Foundation, Sacramento, CA.

    This teacher's guide presents 12 hands-on laboratory activities for high school science classes that cover the environmental issue of water resources in California. The activities are separated into three sections. Five activities in the section on water quality address the topics of groundwater, water hardness, bottled water, water purity, and…

  5. Wind wave prediction in shallow water: Theory and applications

    SciTech Connect

    Cavaleri, L.; Rizzoli, P.M.

    1981-11-20

    A wind wave forecasting model is described, based upon the ray technique, which is specifically designed for shallow water areas. The model explicitly includes wave generation, refraction, and shoaling, while nonlinear dissipative processes (breaking and bottom fricton) are introduced through a suitable parametrization. The forecast is provided at a specified time and target position, in terms of a directional spectrum, from which the one-dimensional spectrum and the significant wave height are derived. The model has been used to hindcast storms both in shallow water (Northern Adriatic Sea) and in deep water conditions (Tyrrhenian Sea). The results have been compared with local measurements, and the rms error for the significant wave height is between 10 and 20%. A major problems has been found in the correct evaluation of the wind field.

  6. Inflow, outflow, and water levels in Lake Michigan during the last part of the Wisconsin glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, L.; Attig, J.W. ); Mickelson, D.M. . Dept. of Geology and Geophysics)

    1992-01-01

    Between about 14,000 and 10,000 B.P., water flowed to and from Lake Michigan through several channels connected with adjacent glacial lakes and the Mississippi basin. Inflow and outflow depend on lake-level fluctuations, but no known lake-level chronology for the Lake Michigan basin explains all the supposed facts. Several kinds of information can be use to construct such a chronology: elevations of beaches, elevations and locations of outlets, ice-margin positions, till stratigraphy, and glacial history relative to outlets and lake-sediment distribution. If the crustal rebound predicted by J.A. Clark (bracketed by glacial Lake Wisconsin and Door Peninsula water planes) is used as the basis for a lake-level chronology, lake elevations would have been much higher than previously recognized, beaches previously thought to be late glacial must be middle Holocene, and the predicted sequence of spillways from glacial Lake Oshkosh, in the Green Bay basin, to Lake Michigan seems incompatible with the till stratigraphy of the region. On the other hand, a hinge line model such as proposed by J.W. Goldthwait allows far less rebound than is required by their knowledge of present-day rebound and by the rebound interpreted from shore features of glacial Lake Wisconsin. Therefore major flaws exist in their understanding of the glacial chronology and stratigraphy, of the glacial lake deposits, or of the crustal rebound; the reconstructed of inflow and outflow will remain uncertain until these conflicts are resolved.

  7. Predicting Crop Water Use from Ground Cover and Remote Sensing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Scheduling irrigations for horticultural crops with evapotranspiration calculations is difficult. Horticultural crops are grown under a wide range of cultural practices and conditions, making it difficult to select appropriate crop coefficients. A primary determinant of crop water use is light in...

  8. NOAA tsunami water level archive - scientific perspectives and discoveries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mungov, G.; Eble, M. C.; McLean, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Currently, NGDC archives and processes high-resolution data recorded by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) network, the coastal-tide-gauge network from the National Ocean Service (NOS) as well as tide-gauge data recorded by all gauges in the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers' (TWCs) regional networks. The challenge in processing these data is that the observations from the deep-ocean, Pacific Islands, Alaska region, and United States West and East Coasts display commonalities, but, at the same time, differ significantly, especially when extreme events are considered. The focus of this work is on how time integration of raw observations (10-seconds to 1-minute) could mask extreme water levels. Analysis of the statistical and spectral characteristics obtained from records with different time step of integration will be presented. Results show the need to precisely calibrate the despiking procedure against raw data due to the significant differences in the variability of deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. It is shown that special attention should be drawn to the very strong water level declines associated with the passage of the North Atlantic cyclones. Strong changes for the deep ocean and for the West Coast have implications for data quality but these same features are typical for the East Coast regime.

  9. Ground-water levels near the top of the water-table mound, western Cape Cod, Massachusetts, 2002-04

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Massey, Andrew J.; Carlson, Carl S.; LeBlanc, Denis R.

    2006-01-01

    In January 2002 the U.S. Geological Survey began continuous water-level monitoring in three wells in the vicinity of the Southeast Ranges of Camp Edwards, near the Impact Area of the Massachusetts Military Reservation on Cape Cod. The purpose of this effort was to examine how water levels at sites with different unsaturated-zone thicknesses near the top of the water-table mound beneath western Cape Cod are affected by temporally variable recharge from precipitation, which is the sole source of water to the sand and gravel aquifer. The depths to water at the well sites are about 18, 30, and 101 feet below land surface. This report presents the first 3 years of water-level records and an estimate of aquifer recharge calculated from climatological measurements by the Jensen and Haise method and the Thornthwaite method. The water levels in the three wells varied temporally by about 4.5 feet during the study period. A comparison of the water levels with those measured in a nearby monitoring well with about 42 years of monthly measurements indicates that the 3-year monitoring period included the lowest water levels on western Cape Cod since the drought of the 1960's. The response of water levels to recharge was related to the depth to water. Water levels in the two wells with shallow depths to water responded quickly (within hours or days) to recharge, whereas the water-level response in the well with the greatest depth to water often lagged the recharge event by a month or more. The variations in the water levels among the wells changed as the location of the top of the water-table mound moved with the changing water-table altitude.

  10. Uncertainty estimation of water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes Andino, D. C.; Halldin, S.; Lundin, L.; Xu, C.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Simulation of elevated water surfaces provides a good way to understand the hydraulic mechanism of large flood events. In this study the one-dimensional HEC-RAS model for steady flow conditions together with the two-dimensional Lisflood-fp model were used to estimate the water level for the Mitch event in the river reaches at Tegucigalpa. Parameters uncertainty of the model was investigated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. Because of the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, no hydrometric measurements were taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of discharge and observed water levels were obtained in previous works by JICA and USGS. To overcome the problem of lacking direct hydrometric measurement data, uncertainty in the discharge was estimated. Both models could well define the value for channel roughness, though more dispersion resulted from the floodplain value. Analysis of the data interaction showed that there was a tradeoff between discharge at the outlet and floodplain roughness for the 1D model. The estimated discharge range at the outlet of the study area encompassed the value indirectly estimated by JICA, however the indirect method used by the USGS overestimated the value. If behavioral parameter sets can well reproduce water surface levels for past events such as Mitch, more reliable predictions for future events can be expected. The results acquired in this research will provide guidelines to deal with the problem of modeling past floods when no direct data was measured during the event, and to predict future large events taking uncertainty into account. The obtained range of the uncertain flood extension will be an outcome useful for decision makers.

  11. Broadband annual oscillation in sea level anomaly data determined by wavelet technique and its impact on sea level prediction accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zbylut-Gorska, Maria; Kosek, Wieslaw; Niedzielski, Tomasz; Popiński, Waldemar; Wnęk, Agnieszka

    2014-05-01

    Weekly sea level anomaly (SLA) maps are now available courtesy of the Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) data. Using the wavelet technique it is possible to compute variable broadband annual oscillation in these data as a function of geographic location. The time variable amplitudes and phases of this oscillation can be investigated using the wavelet transform with the modified Morlet wavelet function with different decay parameter σ that controls the transform time and frequency resolution. The maps of the standard deviations of amplitude variations and the products of amplitudes and phase differences were computed to show the ocean areas with the greatest amplitude and phase variability. Comparison of these maps allows to estimate whether amplitude variations are more irregular than phase ones. Additionally, the mean wavelet spectra of the global ocean can be computed with application of the same wavelet function. In these spectra there occur peaks corresponding to integer multiplicity of the annual oscillation frequency which suggests that this oscillation is nonlinear and broadband. The prediction of SLA time series was computed by a combination of the polynomial-harmonic approach with the autoregressive prediction. In order to detect the contribution of irregular amplitude and phase variations of the broadband annual oscillation on the SLA prediction errors the maps of amplitudes and standard deviations of amplitudes and of products of phase time differences and amplitudes were compared with the mean prediction errors of the SLA data for a few weeks in the future.

  12. Evaluation of Rock Mass Responses Using High Resolution Water-level Tiltmeter Arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, J. S.; Wang, H. F.; Fratta, D.; Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.; Geox^Tm

    2010-12-01

    External forces act on the surface of the earth and produce deformation across all spatial and temporal scales. This research study focuses on the deformation evaluation of the rock-mass subjected to tidal, earthquake and surface forces. The events are monitored over horizontal distances of over 100 meters with tilt measurement arrays with a resolution of 10-8 radians. These measurements are obtained from hydrostatic leveling system (HLS) arrays that have been installed in the LaFarge mine in North Aurora, IL by Fermilab. Each sensor in the array is equipped with a water-filled reservoir beneath a capacitor. The amount of water in the reservoir is calculated as a function of the measured capacitance. Individual sensors are connected in a closed system via a water and air line. As the host rock expands and contracts sensors are raised relative to another and water is displaced. The water level in each reservoir is sent to a computer in the mine and recorded. In order to measure the tilt of the rock between two points, the difference in water levels between adjacent sensors is computed. The difference between the end sensors is also calculated to determine the larger-scale tilt of the array. The tiltmeters in LaFarge mine are supported by concrete pedestals installed on the floor of the drift. In the Homestake mine the tiltmeters are placed on similar pedestals, as well as platforms made of artificial wood decking. These platforms are fixed to the wall of the drift with a rock bolt. Time and frequency domain analyses were performed on time series ranging from hours to six months to capture relevant time scales including the response to the 2010 Chile Earthquake (hour-long scale), the stages of the moon (month scale), Fox River floods (flooding week long scales and pressure dissipation month-long scales). By monitoring tiltmeter array responses to different forces, we aim at making predictions about the material properties of rock masses.

  13. An empirical method for predicting the mixing noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, J. W.

    1984-01-01

    An empirical method for predicting the static free field source noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jet flow streams is presented. The method was developed from an extensive data base of 817 jet tests obtained from five different government and industry sources in three nations. The prediction method defines the jet noise in terms of four components which are overall power level, power spectrum level, directivity index, and relative spectrum level. The values of these noise level components are defined on a grid consisting of seven frequency parameter values (Strouhal numbers) and seven directivity angles. The value of the noise level at each of these grid points is called a noise level coordinate and was defined as a function of five jet exhaust flow state parameters which are equivalent jet velocity, equivalent jet total temperature, the velocity ratio (outer stream to inner stream), temperature ratio, and area ratio. The functions were obtained by curve fitting in a least squares sense the noise level coordinates from the data base in a five dimensional flow state space using a third order Taylor series. The noise level coordinates define the component noise levels for all frequencies and directivities through a bicubic spline function.

  14. Tidal phase of Water level lags behind that of water temperature in Qi'xian observation well, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, B.; Ma, Y.; Huang, F.

    2014-12-01

    There are about 34 observation wells of water temperature which can record the effect of earth tide in national earthquake precursory network center. In most of the 34 wells, tidal phase of water temperature lag behind that of water level, but the opposite phenomenon exists in several observation wells. We take Qi'xian well which has long recording history and continuous data as an example to analyze this phenomenon. We check the instrument's time system by using water temperature and water level changes in response to some big earthquakes,and also check the tidal phase of water temperature and water level in Qi'xian well through harmonic analysis (Baytap-G software), as a result,we find the observation is objective. The fact that Tidal phase of Water level lags behind that of water temperature in Qi'xian observation well shows that water temperature changes may be independent from water level changes. Water temperature changes in this well might be interpreted by the stress-heat consumption hypothesis. This may be beneficial to the study of water temperature changes as an earthquake precursor. Figure 1. Water temperature and water level records of the Qi'xian well from February 26 to 27 in 2010.The coseismic changes due to the 2010 Sumatra earthquake is marked by an arrow.

  15. Shallow ground-water flow, water levels, and quality of water, 1980-84, Cowles Unit, Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, D.A.; Shedlock, R.J.

    1986-01-01

    The Cowles Unit of Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore in Porter County, northwest Indiana, contains a broad dune-beach complex along the southern shoreline of Lake Michigan and a large wetland, called the Great Marsh, that occupies the lowland between the shoreline dunes and an older dune-beach complex farther inland. Water levels and water quality in the surficial aquifer were monitored from 1977 to 1984 near settling ponds on adjacent industrial property at the western end of the Cowles Unit. Since 1980, when the settling pond bottoms were sealed, these intradunal lowlands contained standing water only during periods of high snowmelt or rainfall. Water level declines following the cessation of seepage ranged from 6 feet at the eastern-most settling pond to nearly 14 feet at the western-most pond. No general pattern of water table decline was observed in the Great Marsh or in the shoreline dune complex at distances > 3,000 ft east or north of the settling ponds. Since the settling ponds were sealed, the concentration of boron has decreased while concentrations of cadmium, arsenic, zinc, and molybdenum in shallow ground-water downgradient of the ponds show no definite trends in time. Arsenic, boron and molybdenum have remained at concentrations above those of shallow groundwater in areas unaffected by settling pond seepage. 11 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Prediction of (L)-methionine VCD spectra in the gas phase and water solution.

    PubMed

    Rode, Joanna E; Dobrowolski, Jan Cz; Sadlej, Joanna

    2013-11-21

    In this paper we provide a computational study of the l-methionine conformational landscape and VCD spectra in the gas phase and a water environment simulated by implicit PCM and the hybrid model, i.e., a combination of explicit "microsolvation" and implicit models. In the gas phase, two groups of conformers differing in H-bonding, i.e., OH···NH2 and NH···O═C, could be distinguished based solely on the IR ν(OH) and ν(NH) stretching vibrations range. On the other hand, VCD better reflected chain differences. The most stable OH···NH2 conformer was predicted to be easily detected, and the presence of two out of four NH···O═C conformers could be confirmed. Three zwitterionic methionine conformers were shown to dominate in water. Their VCD spectra, simulated within the hybrid model at the B3LYP-IEF-PCM/aug-cc-pVDZ level of theory, indicated that they could be recognized in the mixture. Use of the hybrid model is crucial for good reproduction of the hydrogen bonding pattern in the VCD spectra of methionine in water solution. However, the 1300-800 cm(-1) region of the skeleton vibrations of methionine appeared to be relatively insensitive to the model of the solvent. PMID:24195697

  17. Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

  18. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  19. Anomalous properties of water predicted by the BK3 model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiss, Péter T.; Baranyai, András

    2014-04-01

    Recently, we proposed a new model for water [P. T. Kiss and A. Baranyai, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 204507 (2013)]. We presented a detailed description of the development of this classical, polarizable model, and a large number of calculated properties. The model provided excellent estimates for ambient liquid properties and reasonably good results from high-pressure solids to gas-phase clusters. In this paper we present results of extensive calculations for temperature-dependent water anomalies in terms of the pressure. The calculated isobars of the temperature-density and the self-diffusion diagrams provide excellent estimates of the experimental values. The estimated compressibility isobars perfectly match the experimental ones if we shift our numbers by ˜10 K upwards. The calculated pressure-dependent viscosity values are excellent at higher temperatures and qualitatively correct at lower temperatures.

  20. A biodynamic model predicting waterborne lead bioaccumulation in Gammarus pulex: Influence of water chemistry and in situ validation.

    PubMed

    Urien, N; Uher, E; Billoir, E; Geffard, O; Fechner, L C; Lebrun, J D

    2015-08-01

    Metals bioaccumulated in aquatic organisms are considered to be a good indicator of bioavailable metal contamination levels in freshwaters. However, bioaccumulation depends on the metal, the species, and the water chemistry that influences metal bioavailability. In the laboratory, a kinetic model was used to describe waterborne Pb bioaccumulated in Gammarus pulex. Uptake and elimination rate constants were successfully determined and the effect of Ca(2+) on Pb uptake was integrated into the model. Thereafter, accumulated Pb concentrations in organisms were predicted with the model and compared with those measured in native populations from the Seine watershed (France). The predictions had a good agreement with the bioaccumulation levels observed in native gammarids and particularly when the effect of calcium was considered. To conclude, kinetic parameters experimentally derived for Pb in G. pulex are applicable in environmental conditions. Moreover, the consideration of the water's chemistry is crucial for a reliable interpretation of bioaccumulation. PMID:25845358

  1. Does the Hospital Predict Readmission? A Multi-level Survival Analysis Approach.

    PubMed

    Leon, Scott C; Stoner, Alison M; Dickson, Daniel A

    2016-07-01

    Time to psychiatric rehospitalization was predicted for a sample of 1473 Medicaid-insured youth in Illinois in 2005 and 2006. A multi-level model statistical strategy was employed to account for the fact that youth days to rehospitalization were nested within hospital and to test the hypothesis that hospitals would vary significantly in return rates, controlling for individual-level (e.g., symptom, demographic) variables. Hospitals did not vary significantly in days to rehospitalization. At the individual-level, level of externalizing behavior and residential treatment placement predicted a faster return to the hospital. These results support the perspective that hospital outcomes are best operationalized using variables tied more directly to the inpatient episode (e.g., LOS, reductions in acuity). PMID:25925793

  2. Higher Fibrinogen Levels Predict Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, T.C.; Snell-Bergeon, J.K.; Maahs, D.M; Kinney, G.L.; Rewers, M.

    2010-01-01

    Aim To determine whether fibrinogen levels predict independently progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in adults with type 1 diabetes. Methods Data from a prospective cohort - the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes Study - were evaluated. Fibrinogen levels at baseline were separated into quartiles. CAC was measured twice and averaged at baseline and at follow-up 2.4 ± 0.4 years later. CAC progressors were defined as participants whose square-root transformed CAC volume increased by ≥ 2.53 or development mm of clinical coronary artery disease during the follow-up period. Results Fibrinogen levels were higher in progressors than in non-progressors (276 ± 61 mg/dl versus 259 ± 61 mg/dl, p = 0.0003). CAC progression, adjusted for known cardiovascular risk factors, increased in the highest quartile. Conclusions Higher fibrinogen levels predict CAC progression in type 1 diabetes subjects, independent of standard cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:20079495

  3. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF LIGHT-INDUCED MORTALITY OF ENTEROCOCCI FAECALIS IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One approach to predictive modeling of biological contamination of recreational waters involves the application of process-based approaches that consider microbial sources, hydrodynamic transport, and microbial fate. This presentation focuses on one important fate process, light-...

  4. Interactive effects of salinity and N on pepper yield, water use efficiency and root zone and drainage salinity: Experimental data and UNSATCHEM predictions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The aim of this study is to examine the effects of optimal and suboptimal N fertilizer levels in saline conditions on pepper plant and to predict the yield, soil water and drainage water EC and ETa using UNSATCHEM. The salinity effect on pepper plant biomass was statistically significant. Increasing...

  5. Multi-Step Ahead Predictions for Critical Levels in Physiological Time Series.

    PubMed

    ElMoaqet, Hisham; Tilbury, Dawn M; Ramachandran, Satya Krishna

    2016-07-01

    Standard modeling and evaluation methods have been classically used in analyzing engineering dynamical systems where the fundamental problem is to minimize the (mean) error between the real and predicted systems. Although these methods have been applied to multi-step ahead predictions of physiological signals, it is often more important to predict clinically relevant events than just to match these signals. Adverse clinical events, which occur after a physiological signal breaches a clinically defined critical threshold, are a popular class of such events. This paper presents a framework for multi-step ahead predictions of critical levels of abnormality in physiological signals. First, a performance metric is presented for evaluating multi-step ahead predictions. Then, this metric is used to identify personalized models optimized with respect to predictions of critical levels of abnormality. To address the paucity of adverse events, weighted support vector machines and cost-sensitive learning are used to optimize the proposed framework with respect to statistical metrics that can take into account the relative rarity of such events. PMID:27244754

  6. [Analysis of pollution levels of 16 antibiotics in the river water of Daliao River water system].

    PubMed

    Yang, Changqing; Wang, Longxing; Hou, Xiaohong; Chen, Jiping

    2012-08-01

    The detection of the pollution level of antibiotics in Daliao River system is a meaningful work. Sixteen antibiotics (6 sulfonamides, 5 fluoroquinolones, 3 tetracyclines and 2 chloramphenicols) were simultaneously quantified with solid-phase extraction (SPE) and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). In the SPE procedure, methanol and 2% (v/v) ammonia/methanol were used as the elution solvents in sequence to reduce the elution volume and improve the recovery. The results showed that this method have good sensitivity and enrichment effect for the target antibiotics in aqueous water, the recoveries ranged from 69.5% to 122.6%, the detection limits ranged from 0.05 ng/L to 0.32 ng/L. Thirteen antibiotics were found in the river water of Daliao River water system. Sulfa antibiotics were widely distributed, in which sulfamethoxazole was detected in all the sampling sites. The concentration of fluoroquinolones was relatively high in some sampling sites. The highest detection concentration of enoxacin was 41.3 ng/L. The frequencies and concentrations of tetracyclines and chloramphenicols were lower. In the upper reaches of the river, the concentrations of the 4 types of antibiotics appeared lower, but around the large cities such as Shenyang City, Benxi City, Liaoyang City, the concentrations showed higher levels. The study indicated that the Daliao River water system suffered from the pollution of antibiotics to a certain extent. PMID:23256376

  7. Relationship of lead in drinking water to bone lead levels twenty years later in Boston men: the Normative Aging Study.

    PubMed

    Potula, V; Serrano, J; Sparrow, D; Hu, H

    1999-05-01

    Tap water in a city like Boston, which has old houses containing lead plumbing, is known to be a significant source of potential lead exposure. Bone lead levels integrate exposure over many years, and in vivo bone lead measurements have recently become possible with the advent of K x-ray fluorescence instruments. Thus we examined the relationship between first morning tap-water lead levels measured in homes in the 1970s and levels of lead in bone measured in the 1990s among middle-aged to elderly men who lived in those homes. We studied 129 participants in the Normative Aging Study who had lead measured in their homes' tap water in 1976 and 1977 by graphite furnace-atomic absorption spectrophotometry. From 1991 to 1995, the same subjects had blood lead levels measured by graphite furnace-atomic absorption spectroscopy and tibia and patella bone lead levels measured by K x-ray fluorescence. We ran multivariate linear regression models predicting bone lead levels that adjusted for factors which had previously been linked with this outcome in the Normative Aging Study (age, pack-years of smoking, and educational level). Among subjects who lived in houses with > or = 50 micrograms lead/liter of first morning tap water representing water that had been standing overnight in the plumbing in 1976 and 1977, those who reported medium or high levels of tap-water ingestion (> or = 1 glass/day) had progressively higher patella lead levels than did those with low levels of ingestion (< 1 glass/day). No such relationship was found among subjects who lived in houses with < 50 micrograms lead/liter of first morning tap water in 1976 and 1977. We conclude that ingestion of lead-contaminated tap water is an important predictor of elevated bone lead levels later in life. PMID:10337604

  8. Predicting compliance with an information-based residential outdoor water conservation program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landon, Adam C.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Kaiser, Ronald A.

    2016-05-01

    Residential water conservation initiatives often involve some form of education or persuasion intended to change the attitudes and behaviors of residential consumers. However, the ability of these instruments to change attitudes toward conservation and their efficacy in affecting water use remains poorly understood. In this investigation the authors examine consumer attitudes toward complying with a persuasive water conservation program, the extent to which those attitudes predict compliance, and the influence of environmental contextual factors on outdoor water use. Results indicate that the persuasive program was successful in developing positive attitudes toward compliance, and that those attitudes predict water use. However, attitudinal variables explain a relatively small proportion of the variance in objectively measured water use behavior. Recommendations for policy are made stressing the importance of understanding both the effects of attitudes and environmental contextual factors in behavior change initiatives in the municipal water sector.

  9. Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Stevenson, Samantha; DiNezio, Pedro; Langford, Sally

    2015-10-01

    The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.3. The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized essentially by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, damped persistence hindcasts following a 1st order Markov process are skillful with lead times of up to several years. This potential multi-year skill estimate is consistent with ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. The long-term potential predictability of soil water variations in combination with the slow regrowth of vegetation after major disruptions leads to enhanced predictability on decadal timescales for vegetation, terrestrial carbon stock, and fire frequency, in particular in the Southern United States (US)/Mexico region. By contrast, the prediction skill of fire frequency in the Northern US is limited to 1 year. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become

  10. Non Invasive Water Level Monitoring on Boiling Water Reactors Using Internal Gamma Radiation: Application of Soft Computing Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fleischer, Sebastian; Hampel, Rainer

    2006-07-01

    To provide best knowledge about safety-related water level values in boiling water reactors (BWR) is essentially for operational regime. For the water level determination hydrostatic level measurement systems are almost exclusively applied, because they stand the test over many decades in conventional and nuclear power plants (NPP). Due to the steam generation especially in BWR a specific phenomenon occurs which leads to a water-steam mixture level in the reactor annular space and reactor plenum. The mixture level is a high transient non-measurable value concerning the hydrostatic water level measuring system and it significantly differs from the measured collapsed water level. In particular, during operational and accidental transient processes like fast negative pressure transients, the monitoring of these water levels is very important. In addition to the hydrostatic water level measurement system a diverse water level measurement system for BWR should be used. A real physical diversity is given by gamma radiation distribution inside and outside the reactor pressure vessel correlating with the water level. The vertical gamma radiation distribution depends on the water level, but it is also a function of the neutron flux and the coolant recirculation pump speed. For the water level monitoring, special algorithms are required. An analytical determination of the gamma radiation distribution outside the reactor pressure vessel is impossible due to the multitude of radiation of physical processes, complicated non-stationary radiation source distribution and complex geometry of fixtures. For creating suited algorithms Soft Computing methods (Fuzzy Sets Theory, Artificial Neural Networks, etc.) will be used. Therefore, a database containing input values (gamma radiation distribution) and output values (water levels) had to be built. Here, the database was established by experiments (data from BWR and from a test setup) and simulation with the authorised thermo

  11. Water levels and water-level changes in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan and Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers, Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, 1971-80

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoenberg, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Water-level data suggest that (1) little variation in annual pumpage between 1971 and 1980 from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer produced generally stable water levels in that aquifer, (2) decreased annual pumpage from the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer from 1971 to 1980 caused water levels in that aquifer to rise, and (3) a greater seasonal component of pumpage from the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer than from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan produced larger and more widespread seasonal water-level declines in the Mount Simon-Hinckley than in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan, particularly during dry years.

  12. Predicting Protein-Protein Interactions from the Molecular to the Proteome Level.

    PubMed

    Keskin, Ozlem; Tuncbag, Nurcan; Gursoy, Attila

    2016-04-27

    Identification of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) is at the center of molecular biology considering the unquestionable role of proteins in cells. Combinatorial interactions result in a repertoire of multiple functions; hence, knowledge of PPI and binding regions naturally serve to functional proteomics and drug discovery. Given experimental limitations to find all interactions in a proteome, computational prediction/modeling of protein interactions is a prerequisite to proceed on the way to complete interactions at the proteome level. This review aims to provide a background on PPIs and their types. Computational methods for PPI predictions can use a variety of biological data including sequence-, evolution-, expression-, and structure-based data. Physical and statistical modeling are commonly used to integrate these data and infer PPI predictions. We review and list the state-of-the-art methods, servers, databases, and tools for protein-protein interaction prediction. PMID:27074302

  13. Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Masterson, J.P.; Garabedian, S.P.

    2007-01-01

    The effects of sea-level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density-dependent, three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea-level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea-level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea-level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  14. Hydrogeology, ground-water use, and ground-water levels in the Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schalk, Charles; Schumann, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Withdrawals of ground water in the central Mill Creek Valley near Evendale, Ohio, caused water-level declines of more than 100 feet by the 1950s. Since the 1950s, management practices have changed to reduce the withdrawals of ground water, and recovery of water levels in long-term monitoring wells in the valley has been documented. Changing conditions such as these prompted a survey of water use, streamflow conditions, and water levels in several aquifers in the central Mill Creek Valley, Hamilton and Butler Counties, Ohio. Geohydrologic information, water use, and water levels were compiled from historical records and collected during the regional survey. Data collected during the survey are presented in terms of updated geohydrologic information, water use in the study area, water levels in the aquifers, and interactions between ground water and surface water. Some of the data are concentrated at former Air Force Plant 36 (AFP36), which is collocated with the General Electric Aircraft Engines (GEAE) plant, and these data are used to describe geohydrology and water levels on a more local scale at and near the plant. A comparison of past and current ground-water use and levels indicates that the demand for ground water is decreasing and water levels are rising. Before 1955, most of the major industrial ground-water users had their own wells, ground water was mined from a confined surficial (lower) aquifer, and water levels were more than 100 feet below their predevelopment level. Since 1955, however, these users have been purchasing their water from the city of Cincinnati or a private water purveyor. The cities of Reading and Lockland, both producers of municipal ground-water supplies in the area, shut down their well fields within their city limits. Because the demand for ground-water supplies in the valley has lessened greatly since the 1950s, withdrawals have decreased, and, consequently, water levels in the lower aquifer are 65 to 105 feet higher than they were

  15. Predicted and Measured Modal Sound Power Levels for a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2010-01-01

    Refinements have been made to a method for estimating the modal sound power levels of a ducted fan ingesting distorted inflow. By assuming that each propagating circumferential mode consists only of a single radial mode (the one with the highest cut-off ratio), circumferential mode sound power levels can be computed for a variety of inflow distortion patterns and operating speeds. Predictions from the refined theory have been compared to data from an experiment conducted in the Advanced Noise Control Fan at NASA Glenn Research Center. The inflow to the fan was distorted by inserting cylindrical rods radially into the inlet duct. The rods were placed at an axial location one rotor chord length upstream of the fan and arranged in both regular and irregular circumferential patterns. The fan was operated at 2000, 1800, and 1400 rpm. Acoustic pressure levels were measured in the fan inlet and exhaust ducts using the Rotating Rake fan mode measurement system. Far field sound pressure levels were also measured. It is shown that predicted trends in circumferential mode sound power levels closely match the experimental data for all operating speeds and distortion configurations tested. Insight gained through this work is being used to develop more advanced tools for predicting fan inflow distortion tone noise levels.

  16. Comparison of three models for predicting blood lead levels in children: episodic exposures to lead.

    PubMed

    Lakind, J S

    1998-01-01

    A threshold blood lead level in children below which no adverse effects occur has not been identified (CDC, 1991), Therefore, the traditional risk assessment method of relating dose to a reference dose (RfD) for noncancer effects is not applicable to lead. To assess whether environmental lead concentrations may result in adverse health effects, predicted blood lead levels are compared to a blood lead level of 10 micrograms/dL, the current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention level of concern. Children's blood lead levels may be predicted with one of at least three models: USEPA'S Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic Model (IEUBK), and models by O'Flaherty (1993) and Carlisle and Wade (1992). This paper explores the utility of these models for predicting blood lead levels in children, and discusses areas of uncertainty associated with the use of these models in evaluating episodic exposures. It is hoped that this discussion will stimulate interest further researching exposure and health effects from episodic contact with lead contaminated media. PMID:9679219

  17. Application of empirical predictive modeling using conventional and alternative fecal indicator bacteria in eastern North Carolina waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gonzalez, Raul; Conn, Kathleen E.; Crosswell, Joey; Noble, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Coastal and estuarine waters are the site of intense anthropogenic influence with concomitant use for recreation and seafood harvesting. Therefore, coastal and estuarine water quality has a direct impact on human health. In eastern North Carolina (NC) there are over 240 recreational and 1025 shellfish harvesting water quality monitoring sites that are regularly assessed. Because of the large number of sites, sampling frequency is often only on a weekly basis. This frequency, along with an 18–24 h incubation time for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) enumeration via culture-based methods, reduces the efficiency of the public notification process. In states like NC where beach monitoring resources are limited but historical data are plentiful, predictive models may offer an improvement for monitoring and notification by providing real-time FIB estimates. In this study, water samples were collected during 12 dry (n = 88) and 13 wet (n = 66) weather events at up to 10 sites. Statistical predictive models for Escherichiacoli (EC), enterococci (ENT), and members of the Bacteroidales group were created and subsequently validated. Our results showed that models for EC and ENT (adjusted R2 were 0.61 and 0.64, respectively) incorporated a range of antecedent rainfall, climate, and environmental variables. The most important variables for EC and ENT models were 5-day antecedent rainfall, dissolved oxygen, and salinity. These models successfully predicted FIB levels over a wide range of conditions with a 3% (EC model) and 9% (ENT model) overall error rate for recreational threshold values and a 0% (EC model) overall error rate for shellfish threshold values. Though modeling of members of the Bacteroidales group had less predictive ability (adjusted R2 were 0.56 and 0.53 for fecal Bacteroides spp. and human Bacteroides spp., respectively), the modeling approach and testing provided information on Bacteroidales ecology. This is the first example of a set of successful statistical

  18. The Development of a Prediction Model to Determine the Appropriate Level of Entering Students in Mathematics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hooper, Herbert L., Jr.

    The problem was to determine the appropriate level of mathematics for an entering student at Chattanooga State Technical Institute to ensure probability of success in his initial course. A multiple regression analysis was used to establish an equation to determine the lower limit of the prediction interval, to determine whether I.Q. or mathematics…

  19. Predicted Molecular Effects of Sequence Variants Link to System Level of Disease.

    PubMed

    Reeb, Jonas; Hecht, Maximilian; Mahlich, Yannick; Bromberg, Yana; Rost, Burkhard

    2016-08-01

    Developments in experimental and computational biology are advancing our understanding of how protein sequence variation impacts molecular protein function. However, the leap from the micro level of molecular function to the macro level of the whole organism, e.g. disease, remains barred. Here, we present new results emphasizing earlier work that suggested some links from molecular function to disease. We focused on non-synonymous single nucleotide variants, also referred to as single amino acid variants (SAVs). Building upon OMIA (Online Mendelian Inheritance in Animals), we introduced a curated set of 117 disease-causing SAVs in animals. Methods optimized to capture effects upon molecular function often correctly predict human (OMIM) and animal (OMIA) Mendelian disease-causing variants. We also predicted effects of human disease-causing variants in the mouse model, i.e. we put OMIM SAVs into mouse orthologs. Overall, fewer variants were predicted with effect in the model organism than in the original organism. Our results, along with other recent studies, demonstrate that predictions of molecular effects capture some important aspects of disease. Thus, in silico methods focusing on the micro level of molecular function can help to understand the macro system level of disease. PMID:27536940

  20. Genetic interactions for heat stress and production level: predicting foreign from domestic data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Genetic by environmental interactions were estimated from U.S. national data by separately adding random regressions for heat stress (HS) and herd production level (HL) to the all-breed animal model to improve predictions of future records and rankings in other climate and production situations. Yie...

  1. Analysis of Predictive Factors that Influence Faculty Members Technology Adoption Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sahin, Ismail; Thompson, Ann

    2007-01-01

    This quantitative study used the Learning/Adoption Trajectory model of technology adoption as a scaffold to investigate whether a faculty adoption level of instructional technology in the College of Education (COE) at a large midwestern university in the US can be predicted by the faculty members' responses to questionnaire items in four areas:…

  2. Predicting Science Achievement: The Role of Developmental Level, Disembedding Ability, Mental Capacity, Prior Knowledge, and Beliefs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawson, Anton E.

    1983-01-01

    Ability of five cognitive characteristics to predict students' (N=96) achievement of evolution and natural selection concepts was measured. Results, among others, indicate that disembedding ability, prior knowledge, and evolutionary belief were significantly related to achievement while developmental level and mental capacity were not. (JN)

  3. Regulation of Motivation: Predicting Students' Homework Motivation Management at the Secondary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2014-01-01

    This study examines models of variables posited to predict students' homework motivation management (HMM), based on survey data from 866 8th graders (61 classes) and 745 11th graders (46 classes) in the south-eastern USA. Most of the variance in HMM occurred at the student level, with parent education as the only significant predictor at the…

  4. Correlates of Achievement: Prediction and Cross-Validation for Intermediate Grade Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jon C.; Powers, Jerry M.

    A study was conducted to: (1) determine the simple and multiple correlation coefficients between selected educational/personal variables and academic achievement at intermediate grade levels as measured by the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills; (2) determine the multiple linear regression equations for predicting individual student achievement as…

  5. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  6. Prediction of altimetric sea level anomalies using time series models based on spatial correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miziński, Bartłomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2014-05-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) times series, which are time-varying gridded data, can be modelled and predicted using time series methods. This approach has been shown to provide accurate forecasts within the Prognocean system, the novel infrastructure for anticipating sea level change designed and built at the University of Wrocław (Poland) which utilizes the real-time SLA data from Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO). The system runs a few models concurrently, and our ocean prediction experiment includes both uni- and multivariate time series methods. The univariate ones are: extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model (PH), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and autoregressive prediction (PH+AR), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and self-exciting threshold autoregressive prediction (PH+SETAR). The following multivariate methods are used: extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and vector autoregressive prediction (PH+VAR), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and generalized space-time autoregressive prediction (PH+GSTAR). As the aforementioned models and the corresponding forecasts are computed in real time, hence independently and in the same computational setting, we are allowed to compare the accuracies offered by the models. The objective of this work is to verify the hypothesis that the multivariate prediction techniques, which make use of cross-correlation and spatial correlation, perform better than the univariate ones. The analysis is based on the daily-fitted and updated time series models predicting the SLA data (lead time of two weeks) over several months when El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was in its neutral state.

  7. Decadal Potential Predictability of Soil Water, Vegetation, and Wildfire Frequency over North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Timmermann, A.; Stevenson, S. L.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Langford, S.

    2014-12-01

    The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community EarthSystem Model (CESM). The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the downstream activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, our ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions are skillful with lead times of up to several years due to the long-term memory of damped persistence. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

  8. Predicting the Health of a Natural Water System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Gregory H.

    2010-01-01

    This project was developed as an interdisciplinary application of the optimization of a single-variable function. It was used in a freshman-level single-variable calculus course. After the first month of the course, students had been exposed to the concepts of the derivative as a rate of change, average and instantaneous velocities, derivatives of…

  9. Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

  10. Setting background nutrient levels for coastal waters with oceanic influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Alastair F.; Fryer, Rob J.; Webster, Lynda; Berx, Bee; Taylor, Alison; Walsham, Pamela; Turrell, William R.

    2014-05-01

    Nutrient enrichment of coastal water bodies as a result of human activities can lead to ecological changes. As part of a strategy to monitor such changes and detect potential eutrophication, samples were collected during research cruises conducted around the Scottish coast each January over the period 2007-2013. Data were obtained for total oxidised nitrogen (TOxN; nitrite and nitrate), phosphate and silicate, and incorporated into data-driven spatial models. Spatial averages in defined sea areas were calculated for each year in order to study inter-annual variability and systematic trends over time. Variation between some years was found to be significant (p < 0.05) but no evidence was found for any trends over the time period studied. This may have been due to the relatively short time series considered here. Modelled distributions were developed using data from groups of years (2007-2009, 2010-2011 and 2012-2013) and compared to the OSPAR Ecological Quality Objectives (EcoQOs) for dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN; the concentration of TOxN and ammonia), the ratio of DIN to dissolved inorganic phosphorous (N/P) and the ratio of DIN to dissolved silicate (N/S). In these three models, TOxN was below the offshore background concentration of 10 μM (12 μM at coastal locations) over more than 50% of the modelled area while N/S exceeded the upper assessment criterion of 2 over more than 50% of the modelled area. In the 2007-2009 model, N/P was below the background ratio (16) over the entire modelled area. In the 2010-2011 model the N/P ratio exceeded the background in 91% of the modelled area but remained below the upper assessment criterion (24). Scottish shelf sea waters were found to be depleted in TOxN relative to oceanic waters. This was not accounted for in the development of background values for the OSPAR EcoQOs so new estimates of these background values were derived. The implications of these results for setting reasonable background nutrient levels when

  11. Ground-water levels in water year 1987 and estimated ground-water pumpage in water years 1986-87, Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berger, D.L.

    1990-01-01

    Groundwater levels were measured at 58 wells during water year 1987 and a summary of estimated pumpage is given for water years 1986 and 1987 in Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada. The data were collected to provide a record of groundwater changes over the long-term and pumpage estimates that can be incorporated into an existing groundwater model. The estimated total pumpage in water year 1986 was 10,200 acre-ft and in water year 1987 was 13,400 acre-ft. Groundwater levels exhibited seasonal fluctuations but remained relatively stable over the reporting period throughout most of the valley. (USGS)

  12. Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein-protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    PubMed

    Zubek, Julian; Tatjewski, Marcin; Boniecki, Adam; Mnich, Maciej; Basu, Subhadip; Plewczynski, Dariusz

    2015-01-01

    Accurate identification of protein-protein interactions (PPI) is the key step in understanding proteins' biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein-protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein-protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC). Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent). PMID:26157620

  13. Simulated changes in water levels in the Minjur Aquifer, Riyadh area, Saudi Arabia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, J.F.; Sagaby, I.A.

    1982-01-01

    A two-dimensional finite-difference computer model of the Minjur aquifer in the Riyadh area of Saudi Arabia was developed to simulate and predict drawdown in an aquifer which, in 1979, supplied more than 80 percent of all water used in this capital area. The Minjur was modeled as a confined aquifer recharged by leakage through underlying confining beds. Pumpage was simulated for a 23-year period during which it increased from 2,160 to 220 ,000 cubic meters per day. At Riyadh, the top of the Minjur aquifer is about 1200 meters below land surface. Aquifer thickness within the 40,000-square-kilometer study area ranges from 74 to 138 meters inclusively. Values for aquifer characteristics used in the model are: transmissivity, from 0.001 to 0.0062 square meters per second; storage coefficients, 0.07 for the unconfined, and 0.0004 for the confined sectors of the model area. A value of 0.02 meters per second was used to represent the vertical conductivity of the confining bed. Predictive simulations indicate that if the Minjur aquifer in the Riyadh area is stressed by estimated future pumpages, static water-level declines ranging from 10 up to and including 90 meters, depending on location, will occur from 1980 through 1999. Simulations also demonstrated that pumping levels in the new Buwayb well field will decline substantially from 1980 through 1981. (USGS)

  14. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and

  15. Differences in influence patterns between groups predicting the adoption of a solar disinfection technology for drinking water in Bolivia.

    PubMed

    Moser, Stephanie; Mosler, Hans-Joachim

    2008-08-01

    The lack of safe drinking water is one of the major problems faced by developing countries. The consequences of contaminated water are diseases such as diarrhea, one of the main causes of infant mortality. Because of its simplicity, solar water-disinfection technology provides a good way of treating water at the household level. Despite its obvious advantages and considerable promotional activities, this innovation has had rather a slow uptake. We conducted a field survey in which 644 households in Bolivia were interviewed in order to gain insights on motivations that resulted in adopting the technology. The aim was to examine possible differences in the predictors for adopting this technology during the diffusion process using the theory of innovation diffusion. Our findings indicate that early adoption was predicted by increased involvement in the topic of drinking water and that adoption in the middle of the diffusion process was predicted by increased involvement by opinion leaders and by recognition of a majority who supported the technology. Finally, late adoption was predicted by recognition that a majority had already adopted. Suggestions for future promotional strategies are outlined. PMID:18508169

  16. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, Effects of pumping on water levels and on water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1984-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels in the southern part of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin declined more than 100 feet. These water-level declines resulted from increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The increase in municipal pumping was part of a basin-testing program designed to determine the usable quantity of ground water in storage. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines to altitudes below sea level in the main water-bearing zones. As a result, the ground-water basin would be subject to saltwater intrusion if the study-period pumpage were maintained or increased. Data indicate that saltwater intrusion has degraded the quality of the water yielded from six coastal wells. During the study period, the six coastal wells all yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 250 milligrams per liter, and four of the wells yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Previous investigators believed that saltwater intrusion was limited to the shallow part of the aquifer, directly adjacent to the coast. The possibility of saltwater intrusion into the deeper water-bearing deposits in the aquifer was thought to be remote because an offshore fault truncates these deeper deposits so that they lie against consolidated rocks on the seaward side of the fault. Results of this study indicate, however, that ocean water has intruded the deeper water-bearing deposits, and to a much greater extent than in the shallow part of the aquifer. Apparently the offshore fault is not an effective barrier to saltwater intrusion. No physical barriers are known to exist between the coast and the municipal well field. Therefore, if the pumping rate maintained during the basin-testing program were continued, the degraded water along the coast could move inland and contaminate the municipal supply wells. The time required for the degraded water to move from the coast to

  17. Spatial and temporal statistical analysis of a ground-water level network, Broward County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, E.D.; Sonenshein, R.S.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a method to evaluate the spatial and temporal statistics of a continuous ground-water level recorder network in Broward County, Florida. Because the Broward County network is sparse for most spatial statistics, a technique has been developed to define polygons for each well that represent the area monitored by the well within specified criteria. The boundaries of these "confidence polygons" are defined by the endpoints of radial lines oriented toward the other wells. The lengths of these lines are determined as the statistically estimated distances to the points at which ground-water levels can be predicted within specirfied criteria. The confidence polygons indicate: (1) the areal coverage of the network, (2) locations where data are unavailable, and (3) areas of redundant data collection. Comparison with data from a noncontinuous recorder well indicates that the confidence polygons are a good represen- tation of areal coverages. The temporal analysis utilizes statistical techniques similar to those used in the spatial method, defining variations in time rather than in space. Consequently, instead of defining radial distances to points, time intervals are defined over which water-level values can be predicted within a specified confidence. These "temporal confidence intervals" correspond to maximum allowable periods between field measure- ments. To combine all results from the analyses, a single coefficient reflecting the spatial and temporal results has been developed. The coefficient is referred to as the Spatial and Temporal Adequacy and Redundancy Evaluation (STARE) and is determined by three factors: the size of the confidence polygon, the number of times the well is part of a redundant pair, and the temporal confidence interval. This coefficient and the individual results of each analysis are used in evaluating the present network and determining future management decisions.

  18. Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

    PubMed Central

    Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

  19. Construal Levels and Psychological Distance: Effects on Representation, Prediction, Evaluation, and Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira; Wakslak, Cheryl

    2011-01-01

    Construal level theory (CLT) is an account of how psychological distance influences individuals’ thoughts and behavior. CLT assumes that people mentally construe objects that are psychologically near in terms of low-level, detailed, and contextualized features, whereas at a distance they construe the same objects or events in terms of high-level, abstract, and stable characteristics. Research has shown that different dimensions of psychological distance (time, space, social distance, and hypotheticality) affect mental construal and that these construals, in turn, guide prediction, evaluation, and behavior. The present paper reviews this research and its implications for consumer psychology. PMID:21822366

  20. Late Holocene land- and sea-level changes in the British Isles: implications for future sea-level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehrels, W. Roland

    2010-07-01

    Four decades of palaeosea-level research in the British Isles have produced a large dataset of age-altitude curves of postglacial sea-level changes. Patterns of late Holocene relative sea-level change reveal the persistent influence of the British/Irish Ice Sheet and the larger Scandinavian Ice Sheet on contemporary rates of vertical land movements. The Shennan and Horton (2002) map of late Holocene relative land movements has been used in future sea-level rise predictions by the United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme in their 2002 assessment (UKCIP02), but has been mistaken for a map of absolute land movements. In this paper, land-motion data for Britain are extracted from the Shennan and Horton (2002) relative sea-level data, and a new map of crustal land movements is presented which also includes Ireland. This procedure takes into account the regional 20th century sea-level rise (˜0.14 m) and the process of ocean syphoning ( i.e. a global fall in sea level of ˜0.3 mm/yr due to GIA induced ocean-floor lowering and re-distribution of ocean mass). The calculated land-motion rates also depend on the global late Holocene ice-equivalent sea-level change, given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as 0.0-0.2 mm/yr. Accounting for these processes reduces the misfit between geological observations of vertical land motion and those independently derived from gravity-aligned Global Positioning System (AG GPS) measurements and shows that UKCIP02 has underestimated land subsidence in southern Britain and over-estimated land uplift in Scotland, both by 0.1-0.2 mm/yr. A best fit between GPS and geological estimates of land movements in Britain is achieved for a global long-term eustatic sea-level fall of ca 0.2 mm/yr, suggesting some global ice expansion in the late Holocene, rather than melt. If this is correct, uplift rates in Scotland would be lower and subsidence rates in southern Britain would be faster (by 0.4-0.5 mm/yr) than estimated by UKCIP02. More

  1. Survey of fluoride levels in vended water stations.

    PubMed

    Jadav, Urvi G; Archarya, Bhavini S; Velasquez, Gisela M; Vance, Bradley J; Tate, Robert H; Quock, Ryan L

    2014-01-01

    This study sought to measure the fluoride concentration of water derived from vended water stations (VWS) and to identify its clinical implications, especially with regard to caries prevention and fluorosis. VWS and corresponding tap water samples were collected from 34 unique postal zip codes; samples were analyzed in duplicate for fluoride concentration. Average fluoride concentration in VWS water was significantly lower than that of tap water (P < 0.001). Fluoride concentration in the VWS water ranged from <0.01 ppm to 0.04 ppm, with a mean concentration of 0.02 ppm (±0.02 ppm). Patients utilizing VWS as their primary source of drinking water may not be receiving optimal caries preventive benefits; thus dietary fluoride supplementation may be indicated. Conversely, to minimize the risk of fluorosis in infants consuming reconstituted infant formula, water from a VWS may be used. PMID:25184716

  2. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lipscomb, William

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  3. One-level prediction-A numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCammon, R.B.; Kork, J.O.

    1992-01-01

    One-level prediction has been developed as a numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment within large areas. The method is based on a presumed relationship between a numerical measure of geologic favorability and the spatial distribution of metal endowment. Metal endowment within an unexplored area for which the favorability measure is greater than a favorability threshold level is estimated to be proportional to the area of that unexplored portion. The constant of proportionality is the ratio of the discovered endowment found within a suitably chosen control region, which has been explored, to the area of that explored region. In addition to the estimate of undiscovered endowment, a measure of the error of the estimate is also calculated. One-level prediction has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. A subroutine to perform the necessary calculations is included. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

  4. Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

  5. PREDICTING SUSTAINABLE GROUND WATER TO CONSTRUCTED RIPARIAN WETLANDS: SHAKER TRACE, OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water isotopy is introduced as a best management practice for the prediction of sustained ground water inflows to prospective constructed wetlands. A primer and application of the stable isotopes, 18O and 2H, are discussed for riparian wetland restoration ar...

  6. Implementation of Channel-Routing Routines in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, continuous-simulation, watershed hydrology and erosion model. It is an important tool for water erosion simulation owing to its unique functionality in representing diverse landuse and management conditions. Its applicability is l...

  7. Wave transformation and shoreline water level on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beetham, Edward; Kench, Paul S.; O'Callaghan, Joanne; Popinet, Stéphane

    2016-01-01

    The influence of sea swell (SS) waves, infragravity (IG) waves, and wave setup on maximum runup (Rmax) is investigated across different tidal stages on Fatato Island, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. Field results illustrate that SS waves are tidally modulated at the shoreline, with comparatively greater wave attenuation and setup occurring at low tide versus high tide. A shoreward increase in IG wave height is observed across the 100 m wide reef flat at all tidal elevations, with no tidal modulation of IG wave height at the reef flat or island shoreline. A 1-D shock-capturing Green-Naghdi solver is used to replicate the field deployment and analyze Rmax. Model outputs for SS wave height, IG wave height and setup at the shoreline match field results with model skill >0.96. Model outputs for Rmax are used to identify the temporal window when geomorphic activity can occur on the beach face. During periods of moderate swell energy, waves can impact the beach face at spring low tide, due to a combination of wave setup and strong IG wave activity. Under mean wave conditions, the combined influence of setup, IG waves and SS waves results in interaction with island sediment at midtide. At high tide, SS and IG waves directly impact the beach face. Overall, wave activity is present on the beach face for 71% of the study period, a significantly longer duration than is calculated using mean water level and topographic data.

  8. REDUCING ARSENIC LEVELS IN DRINKING WATER: APPROACHES AND CONSIDERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recently promulgated Arsenic Rule will require that many new drinking water systems treat their water to remove arsenic. It has been projected that the State of Ohio will have nearly 140 community and non-community non-transient water systems in violation of the Rule. This ...

  9. Variability, Predictability, and Risk in the Alaskan Arctic Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arbetter, T. E.; Goldstein, M. A.; Lynch, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Summer sea ice extent in the Arctic has been in decline since 1996, but after successive record September minimums in 2005, 2007, and 2012, the possibility of developing the high Arctic has rapidly changed from something decades away to an imminent opportunity. The Obama administration permitted Royal Dutch Shell to conduct exploratory oil drilling in the Chukchi Sea in summer 2015. If successful, further development will follow. The Bering Strait, as the exit of the Northern Sea Route, has already seen increased ship traffic, and this will likely continue if the sea ice remains reliably low. While not the only factor, predictability of sea ice extent, particularly on seasonal scales (3-12 months), is essential; a wrong decision will be costly if not catastrophic (e.g, Kulluk 2012). Using a reduced form model, we investigate geophysical processes which govern the advance and retreat of the sea ice edge at key points (e.g., Nome, Kotzebue, Barrow, Prudhoe Bay). Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing formula, we estimate costs and risks associated with the ice edge variability.

  10. A Noise Level Prediction Method Based on Electro-Mechanical Frequency Response Function for Capacitors

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

  11. A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

  12. Estimating Impaired Waters on a County Level for Public Health Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water quality for ...

  13. Environmental assessment of drainage water impacts on water quality and eutrophication level of Lake Idku, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Ali, Elham M; Khairy, Hanan M

    2016-09-01

    Lake Idku, northern Egypt, receives large quantities of drainage water from four main discharging drains. Ecological and biological status of Lake Idku has been monitored during (autumn 2012 to summer 2013) to examine the lake water quality and eutrophication level in response to the quality as well as the source of the discharging water. Discrete water samples were collected from the lake body and the drains. Chemical analyses revealed an excessive nutrient load goes into the lake. A range of 1.4-10.6 mg nitrites/L was determined for drain waters, however a sudden increase was observed in lake and drain water samples of up to 84 and 74.5 mg/L, respectively. Reactive silicate ranged between 2.9 and 4.8 mg/L; while inorganic phosphate fluctuated between 0.2 and 0.43 mg/L. Transparency varied from 45 cm to 134 cm with better light conditions at drain sites. Biological results indicated a hyper-eutrophic status for the lake with a range of chlorophyll-a varied from a minimum of 39.9 μg/L (at Idku Drains) and a maximum of 104.2 μg/L (at El-Khairy drain). Phytoplankton community structure revealed higher abundance at lake sites compared with the drains. Maximum phytoplankton density was detected during summer with the dominance of Bacilariophyceae (e.g. Cyclotella meneghiniana, Cyclotella comate, Melosira varians) followed by Chlorophycean taxon (e.g. Scenedesmus dimorphus, S. bijuga and Crucigenia tetrapedia). Five indices were applied to evaluate the water quality of the lake. Diversity Index (DI) indicated slight to light pollution along all sites; while Sapropic Index (SI) indicated slight pollution with acceptable oxygen conditions and an availability of sensitive species. Palmer Index (PI) gave a strong evidence of high organic pollution at some sites in the lake, while Generic Diatom Index (GDI) revealed that levels of pollution varied from average to strong. Trophic Index (TI), suggest that there are an obvious signs of eutrophication in the lake. PMID

  14. The effects of sea-level rise on water quality in coastal floodplain sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Vanessa; Johnston, Scott; Burton, Edward; Bush, Richard; Sullivan, Leigh; Slavich, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Sea level has risen approximately 1.2 mm/year over the last 100 years (Hennessy et al. 2004) and is predicted to rise up to 80 cm by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels (IPCC 2007). The number of extreme events related to sea level such as higher sea levels and increased inter-annual variability have also increased in frequency in the same time period (Hennessy et al. 2004). Globally, large areas of coastal and estuarine floodplains are underlain by sulfidic sediments and acid sulfate soils (ASS). These sediments frequently contain high concentrations of acidity and trace metals. A significant portion of the stored acidity occurs in the form of exchangeable and hydrolysable acidic metal cations such as Al and Fe. Watertables in these environments are often close to the surface and intercepted by relatively shallow drains. Due to their low elevation and locations, these floodplains are highly susceptible to pulses of saline water caused by saltwater intrusion, storm surge and rising sea levels. Construction of extensive drainage systems has further increased the susceptibility of the floodplain to seawater inundation by increasing connectivity to the estuarine channel. This risk is likely to increase in the future with predicted increases in sea level and extreme events due to climate change. This study uses both batch experiments to determine the effects of increasing ionic strength on exchange processes and trace metal desorption in oxidised floodplain sediments and sulfidic drain sediments, and intact soil cores to determine the surface water-porewater interactions over the short term following seawater inundation in coastal floodplain sediments. We found that that saline inundation of oxidised ASS floodplain sediments, even by relatively brackish water may cause rapid, shorter-term water quality changes and a pulse release of acidity due to desorption of acidic metal cations (Wong et al. 2010). We also found that trace metals can be mobilised from sulfidic

  15. Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Niall; Lewis, Matthew; Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk In this research we assess the temporal variability in the time-series of extreme water levels at 44 A- Class tide gauges around the UK. Extreme (> 99th percentile) storm tide events, sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 minutes between 1993 and 2012, were analysed at each site, and the variability in elevation relative to a given event storm tide peak was quantified. The magnitude of the variability in the time-series was found to be both spatially variable across the UK, and temporally variable relative to the time of the high water. Boundary water levels associated with a range of event magnitudes at case study locations around the UK were used to force two-dimensional hydrodynamic models to examine the importance of storm tide time-series uncertainty to flood risk predictions. The comparison of inundation extent, depth, and number of buildings affected demonstrated the importance of accurately defining the duration and magnitude of defence exceedance. For example, given a current 1 in 200 year event magnitude at Portsmouth (UK), the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the 5th percentile time-series relative to those forced with the 95th percentile time-series. The results clearly indicate that variability in the time-series of the storm tide can have considerable influence upon the duration and magnitude by which defences are exceeded, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the 5th and 95th percentile time-series defined in this research provide a tool for coastal flood modellers. Only defence overflow-induced inundation was examined in this research. However, it is expected that variability in storm tide time-series will also have important

  16. CA19-9 serum levels predict micrometastases in patients with gastric cancer

    PubMed Central

    Potrc, Stojan; Mis, Katarina; Plankl, Mojca; Mars, Tomaz

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background We explored the prognostic value of the up-regulated carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) in node-negative patients with gastric cancer as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Patients and methods Micrometastases were determined using reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) for a subgroup of 30 node-negative patients. This group was used to determine the cut-off for preoperative CA19-9 serum levels as a surrogate marker for micrometastases. Then 187 node-negative T1 to T4 patients were selected to validate the predictive value of this CA19-9 threshold. Results Patients with micrometastases had significantly higher preoperative CA19-9 serum levels compared to patients without micrometastases (p = 0.046). CA19-9 serum levels were significantly correlated with tumour site, tumour diameter, and perineural invasion. Although not reaching significance, subgroup analysis showed better five-year survival rates for patients with CA19-9 serum levels below the threshold, compared to patients with CA19-9 serum levels above the cut-off. The cumulative survival for T2 to T4 node-negative patients was significantly better with CA19-9 serum levels below the cut-off (p = 0.04). Conclusions Preoperative CA19-9 serum levels can be used to predict higher risk for haematogenous spread and micrometastases in node-negative patients. However, CA19-9 serum levels lack the necessary sensitivity and specificity to reliably predict micrometastases. PMID:27247553

  17. Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt.

    PubMed

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S; Znoj, Hansjörg

    2013-06-01

    This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks. PMID:23501139

  18. Prognocean Plus: the Science-Oriented Sea Level Prediction System as a Tool for Public Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Świerczyńska, M. G.; Miziński, B.; Niedzielski, T.

    2015-12-01

    The novel real-time system for sea level prediction, known as Prognocean Plus, has been developed as a new generation service available through the Polish supercomputing grid infrastructure. The researchers can access the service at https://prognocean.plgrid.pl/. Although the system is science-oriented, we wish to discuss herein its potentials to enhance ocean management studies carried out routinely by public stakeholders. The system produces the short- and medium-term predictions of global altimetric gridded Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) time series, updated daily. The spatial resolution of the SLA forecasts is 1/4° x 1/4°, while the temporal resolution of prognoses is equal to 1 day. The system computes the predictions of time-variable ocean topography using five data-based models, which are not computationally demanding, enabling us to compare their skillfulness in respect to physically-based approaches commonly used by different sea level prediction systems. However, the aim of the system is not only to compute the predictions for science purposes, but primarily to build a user-oriented platform that serves the prognoses and their statistics to a broader community. Thus, we deliver the SLA forecasts as a rapid service available online. In order to provide potential users with the access to science results the Web Map Service (WMS) for Prognocean Plus is designed. We regularly publish the forecasts, both in the interactive graphical WMS service, available from the browser, as well as through the Web Coverage Service (WCS) standard. The Prognocean Plus system, as an early-response system, may be interesting for public stakeholders. It may be used for marine navigation as well as for climate risk management (delineate areas vulnerable to local sea level rise), marine management (advise offered for offshore activities) and coastal management (early warnings against coastal floodings).

  19. Use of predictive models and rapid methods to nowcast bacteria levels at coastal beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, D.S.

    2009-01-01

    The need for rapid assessments of recreational water quality to better protect public health is well accepted throughout the research and regulatory communities. Rapid analytical methods, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunomagnetic separation/adenosine triphosphate (ATP) analysis, are being tested but are not yet ready for widespread use. Another solution is the use of predictive models, wherein variable(s) that are easily and quickly measured are surrogates for concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria. Rainfall-based alerts, the simplest type of model, have been used by several communities for a number of years. Deterministic models use mathematical representations of the processes that affect bacteria concentrations; this type of model is being used for beach-closure decisions at one location in the USA. Multivariable statistical models are being developed and tested in many areas of the USA; however, they are only used in three areas of the Great Lakes to aid in notifications of beach advisories or closings. These "operational" statistical models can result in more accurate assessments of recreational water quality than use of the previous day's Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration as determined by traditional culture methods. The Ohio Nowcast, at Huntington Beach, Bay Village, Ohio, is described in this paper as an example of an operational statistical model. Because predictive modeling is a dynamic process, water-resource managers continue to collect additional data to improve the predictive ability of the nowcast and expand the nowcast to other Ohio beaches and a recreational river. Although predictive models have been shown to work well at some beaches and are becoming more widely accepted, implementation in many areas is limited by funding, lack of coordinated technical leadership, and lack of supporting epidemiological data. ?? 2009 AEHMS.

  20. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, H.; Wade, J.

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or 'plant') in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10 to 30 percent of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Five houses near Syracuse NY were monitored. Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  1. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, Hugh; Wade, Jeremy

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or "plant") in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10%-30% of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) in five houses near Syracuse, NY, and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  2. Prediction of Shock-Induced Cavitation in Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, Aaron

    2013-06-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading has wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over pre-existing CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  3. Prediction of shock-induced cavitation in water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, A.

    2014-05-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading have wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over preexisting CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation.

  4. A water marker monitored by satellites to predict seasonal endemic cholera

    PubMed Central

    JUTLA, ANTARPREET; AKANDA, ALI SHAFQAT; HUQ, ANWAR; FARUQUE, ABU SYED GOLAM; COLWELL, RITA; ISLAM, SHAFIQUL

    2013-01-01

    The ability to predict an occurrence of cholera, a water-related disease, offers a significant public health advantage. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for plankton abundance, have been linked to cholera incidence. However, cholera bacteria can survive under a variety of coastal ecological conditions, thus constraining the predictive ability of the chlorophyll, since it provides only an estimate of greenness of seawater. Here, a new remote sensing based index is proposed: Satellite Water Marker (SWM), which estimates condition of coastal water, based on observed variability in the difference between blue (412 nm) and green (555 nm) wavelengths that can be related to seasonal cholera incidence. The index is bounded between physically separable wavelengths for relatively clear (blue) and turbid (green) water. Using SWM, prediction of cholera with reasonable accuracy, with at least two month in advance, can potentially be achieved in the endemic coastal regions. PMID:23878762

  5. Individual changes in clozapine levels after smoking cessation: results and a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Meyer, J M

    2001-12-01

    Published reports document 20-40% lower mean serum clozapine concentrations in smokers compared with nonsmokers due to enzyme induction. Despite the increase in nonsmoking psychiatric facilities in the United States, previous studies have not tracked individual changes in serum clozapine levels after smoking cessation. Clozapine level changes were analyzed in 11 patients at Oregon State Hospital who were on stable clozapine doses, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide nonsmoking policy. A mean increase in clozapine levels of 71.9% (442.4 ng/ml +/- 598.8 ng/ml) occurred upon smoking cessation (p < .034) from a baseline level of 550.2 ng/ml (+/- 160.18 ng/ml). One serious adverse event, aspiration pneumonia, was associated with a nonsmoking serum clozapine level of 3066 ng/ml. Elimination of statistically extreme results generated a mean increase of 57.4 % or 284.1 ng/ml (+/- 105.2 ng/ml) for the remaining cases (p < .001) and permitted construction of a linear model which explains 80.9% of changes in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation (F = 34.9;p = .001): clozapine level as nonsmoker = 45.3 + 1.474 (clozapine level as smoker). These findings suggest that significant increases in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation may be predicted by use of a model. Those with high baseline levels should be monitored for serious adverse events. PMID:11763003

  6. Uric Acid Levels Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome and Hypertension in Adolescents: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Hai-Lun; Pei, Dee; Lue, Ko-Huang; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The relationships between uric acid and chronic disease risk factors such as metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension have been studied in adults. However, whether these relationships exist in adolescents is unknown. We randomly selected 8,005 subjects who were between 10 to 15 years old at baseline. Measurements of uric acid were used to predict the future occurrence of metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes. In total, 5,748 adolescents were enrolled and followed for a median of 7.2 years. Using cutoff points of uric acid for males and females (7.3 and 6.2 mg/dl, respectively), a high level of uric acid was either the second or third best predictor for hypertension in both genders (hazard ratio: 2.920 for males, 5.222 for females; p<0.05). However, uric acid levels failed to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus, and only predicted metabolic syndrome in males (hazard ratio: 1.658; p<0.05). The same results were found in multivariate adjusted analysis. In conclusion, a high level of uric acid indicated a higher likelihood of developing hypertension in both genders and metabolic syndrome in males after 10 years of follow-up. However, uric acid levels did not affect the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in both genders. PMID:26618358

  7. A Predictive Coding Perspective on Beta Oscillations during Sentence-Level Language Comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Ashley G.; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Schriefers, Herbert; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    Oscillatory neural dynamics have been steadily receiving more attention as a robust and temporally precise signature of network activity related to language processing. We have recently proposed that oscillatory dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges measured during sentence-level comprehension might be best explained from a predictive coding perspective. Under our proposal we related beta oscillations to both the maintenance/change of the neural network configuration responsible for the construction and representation of sentence-level meaning, and to top–down predictions about upcoming linguistic input based on that sentence-level meaning. Here we zoom in on these particular aspects of our proposal, and discuss both old and new supporting evidence. Finally, we present some preliminary magnetoencephalography data from an experiment comparing Dutch subject- and object-relative clauses that was specifically designed to test our predictive coding framework. Initial results support the first of the two suggested roles for beta oscillations in sentence-level language comprehension. PMID:26973500

  8. Uric Acid Levels Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome and Hypertension in Adolescents: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study.

    PubMed

    Sun, Hai-Lun; Pei, Dee; Lue, Ko-Huang; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The relationships between uric acid and chronic disease risk factors such as metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension have been studied in adults. However, whether these relationships exist in adolescents is unknown. We randomly selected 8,005 subjects who were between 10 to 15 years old at baseline. Measurements of uric acid were used to predict the future occurrence of metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes. In total, 5,748 adolescents were enrolled and followed for a median of 7.2 years. Using cutoff points of uric acid for males and females (7.3 and 6.2 mg/dl, respectively), a high level of uric acid was either the second or third best predictor for hypertension in both genders (hazard ratio: 2.920 for males, 5.222 for females; p<0.05). However, uric acid levels failed to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus, and only predicted metabolic syndrome in males (hazard ratio: 1.658; p<0.05). The same results were found in multivariate adjusted analysis. In conclusion, a high level of uric acid indicated a higher likelihood of developing hypertension in both genders and metabolic syndrome in males after 10 years of follow-up. However, uric acid levels did not affect the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in both genders. PMID:26618358

  9. A Predictive Coding Perspective on Beta Oscillations during Sentence-Level Language Comprehension.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Ashley G; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Schriefers, Herbert; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    Oscillatory neural dynamics have been steadily receiving more attention as a robust and temporally precise signature of network activity related to language processing. We have recently proposed that oscillatory dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges measured during sentence-level comprehension might be best explained from a predictive coding perspective. Under our proposal we related beta oscillations to both the maintenance/change of the neural network configuration responsible for the construction and representation of sentence-level meaning, and to top-down predictions about upcoming linguistic input based on that sentence-level meaning. Here we zoom in on these particular aspects of our proposal, and discuss both old and new supporting evidence. Finally, we present some preliminary magnetoencephalography data from an experiment comparing Dutch subject- and object-relative clauses that was specifically designed to test our predictive coding framework. Initial results support the first of the two suggested roles for beta oscillations in sentence-level language comprehension. PMID:26973500

  10. Predicting Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Target Genes by Level-2 Protein-Protein Interaction

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yi; Cui, Qinghua; Kong, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is frequently lethal and has no effective pharmaceutical treatment, posing a great threat to human health. Previous bioinformatics studies of the mechanisms underlying AAA relied largely on the detection of direct protein-protein interactions (level-1 PPI) between the products of reported AAA-related genes. Thus, some proteins not suspected to be directly linked to previously reported genes of pivotal importance to AAA might have been missed. In this study, we constructed an indirect protein-protein interaction (level-2 PPI) network based on common interacting proteins encoded by known AAA-related genes and successfully predicted previously unreported AAA-related genes using this network. We used four methods to test and verify the performance of this level-2 PPI network: cross validation, human AAA mRNA chip array comparison, literature mining, and verification in a mouse CaPO4 AAA model. We confirmed that the new level-2 PPI network is superior to the original level-1 PPI network and proved that the top 100 candidate genes predicted by the level-2 PPI network shared similar GO functions and KEGG pathways compared with positive genes. PMID:26496478

  11. Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    potential losses of nesting habitat from SLR and wave-driven inundation. We observed far greater potential impacts of SLR to wildlife with the dynamic wave-driven modeling approach than with the passive modeling approach. Depending on SLR scenario and coastal orientation, during storms under a +2.00 m SLR scenario, the wave-driven inundation model predicted three times more inundation than the passive model (17.2 percent of total terrestrial area versus 4.6 percent, respectively). Large-wave events generally added 1 m of water height to passive inundation surfaces, therefore our dynamic models (during storm events) forecasted comparable inundation extents earlier than passive models. Although wave-driven water levels were highest in the northwest quadrant of Laysan Island, the greatest extent of inundation occurred in the southeast where coastal dunes less than 3 m above mean sea level provide little protection from wave-driven inundation. When wave-driven inundation was included in the SLR model for Laysan Island greater nesting habitat loss and potential impacts on wildlife population dynamics were predicted. The consequences of habitat loss due to SLR may be worse for species with colonies in the wave-exposed coastal zones (for example, Black-footed Albatross) and for populations already near the island's carrying capacity (for example, Laysan Teal). Species whose peak incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonally high wave heights also will be increasingly vulnerable, especially those species nesting on the ground in areas vulnerable to inundation, such as Gray-backed Tern and Black-footed Albatross. Other species that have space for population growth, or are not restricted to a narrow range of habitat types on Laysan (for instance, Sooty Terns), may be less sensitive to habitat loss from SLR over the next century. Our assessments of inundation risk, habitat loss, and wildlife species vulnerability synthesize current knowledge about individual islands

  12. Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, David H.

    2000-01-01

    We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

  13. Effect of water level drawdown on decomposition in boreal peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Penttilä, Timo; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    Plant litter production and decomposition are key processes in element cycling in most ecosystems. In peatlands, there has been a long-term imbalance between litter production and decay caused by high water levels (WL) and consequent anoxia. This has resulted in peatlands being a significant sink of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, peatlands are experiencing both "natural" (global climate change) and anthropogenic (ditching) changes that threaten their ability to retain this ecosystem identity and function. Many of these alterations can be traced back to WL drawdown, which can cause increased aeration, higher acidity, falling temperatures, and a greater probability of drought. Such changes are also associated with an increasing decomposition rate, and therefore a greater amount of C released back to the atmosphere. Yet studies about how the overall C balance of peatlands will be affected have come up with conflicting conclusions, demonstrating that the C store could increase, decrease, or remain static. A factor that has been largely overlooked is the change in litter type composition following persistent WL drawdown. It is the aim of our study, then, to help to resolve this issue. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent WL drawdown on the decomposition of numerous types of above-ground and below-ground plant litters at three boreal peatland sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. We thus believe that enough permutations have been created to obtain a good assessment of how each factor, site nutrient level, WL regime, and litter type composition, influences decomposition. We used the litter bag method to measure the decomposition rates: placed measured amounts of plant litter, or cellulose strips as a control, into closed mesh bags, and installed the bags in the natural environment for decomposition for each litter type for varying amounts of time. Following litter bag recovery, the litter was

  14. Water Levels In Major Artesian Aquifers Of The New Jersey Coastal Plain, 1988

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosman, Robert; Lacombe, Pierre J.; Storck, Donald A.

    1995-01-01

    Water levels in 1,251 wells in the New Jersey Coastal Plain, Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, and Kent and New Castle Counties, Delaware, were measured from October 1988 to February 1989 and compared with 1,071 water levels measured from September 1983 to May 1984. Water levels in 916 of the wells measured in the 1983 study were remeasured in the 1988 study. Alternate wells were selected to replace wells used in 1983 that were inaccessible at the time of the water-level measurements in 1988 or had been destroyed. New well sites were added in strategic locations to increase coverage where possible. Large cones of depression have formed or expanded in the nine major artesian aquifers that underlie the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Water levels are shown on nine potentiometric-surface maps. Hydrographs for observation wells typically show water-level declines for 1983, through 1989. In the confined Cohansey aquifer, the lowest water level, 20 feet below sea level, was measured in a well located at Cape May City Water Department, Cape May County. Water levels in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand declined as much as 21 feet at Ventnor, Atlantic County, over the 6-year period from the 1983 study to this study for 1988. Water levels in the Piney Point aquifer were as low as 56 feet below sea level at Seaside Park, Ocean County; 45 feet below sea level in southern Cumberland County; and 28 feet below sea level at Margate, Atlantic County. Water levels in the Vincentown aquifer did not change over the 6-year period. The lowest water levels in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and the Englishtown aquifer system were 218 feet and 256 feet below sea level, respectively. Large cones of depression in the Potomac- Raritan-Magothy aquifer system are centered in the Camden County area and the Middlesex and Monmouth County area. Water levels declined as much as 46 feet in these areas over the 6-year period.

  15. Borehole sounding device with sealed depth and water level sensors

    DOEpatents

    Skalski, Joseph C.; Henke, Michael D.

    2005-08-02

    A borehole device having proximal and distal ends comprises an enclosure at the proximal end for accepting an aircraft cable containing a plurality of insulated conductors from a remote position. A water sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the enclosure and contains means for detecting water, and sending a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating water has been detected. A bottom sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the water sensing enclosure for determining when the borehole device encounters borehole bottom and sends a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating that borehole bottom has been encountered.

  16. PLASMA OXYTOCIN LEVELS PREDICT SOCIAL CUE RECOGNITION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH SCHIZOPHRENIA

    PubMed Central

    Strauss, Gregory P.; Keller, William R.; Koenig, James I.; Gold, James M.; Frost, Katherine H.; Buchanan, Robert W.

    2015-01-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  17. Plasma oxytocin levels predict social cue recognition in individuals with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Strauss, Gregory P; Keller, William R; Koenig, James I; Gold, James M; Frost, Katherine H; Buchanan, Robert W

    2015-03-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  18. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, W. J.

    2014-05-01

    Wim J. de Lange, Geert F. Prinsen, Jacco H. Hoogewoud, Ab A Veldhuizen, Joachim Hunink, Erik F.W. Ruijgh, Timo Kroon Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses

  19. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, Wim; Prinsen, Geert.; Hoogewoud, Jacco; Veldhuizen, Ab; Ruijgh, Erik; Kroon, Timo

    2013-04-01

    Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with? by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the

  20. Baseline carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) serum levels predict bevacizumab-based treatment response in metastatic colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Prager, Gerald W; Braemswig, Kira H; Martel, Alexandra; Unseld, Matthias; Heinze, Georg; Brodowicz, Thomas; Scheithauer, Werner; Kornek, Gabriela; Zielinski, Christoph C

    2014-01-01

    Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) affects tumorigenesis by enhancing tumor cell survival and by inducing tumor angiogenesis. This study aimed to evaluate baseline CEA serum levels to predict bevacizumab-based therapy effect and survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Two hundred and ninety eight mCRC patients receiving chemotherapy plus either bevacizumab or cetuximab were analyzed in a retrospective study. Disease control (DC), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival were assessed and related to pretreatment CEA serum levels. Patients with baseline CEA serum levels below the statistical median of 26.8 ng/mL (group I) were compared with patients with higher CEA levels (group II). The cetuximab-based treatment cohort was analyzed for specificity assessment of CEA to predict the anti-vascular endothelial growth factor effect in mCRC. Baseline CEA serum levels inversely correlated with therapeutic response in patients receiving bevacizumab-based treatment (disease control rate, 84% vs 60%), inversely correlated with median PFS leading to a median PFS benefit of 2.1 months for patients in group I when compared with group II, as well as inversely correlated with median overall survival (37.5 months vs 21.4 months). In an independent cohort of 129 patients treated with cetuximab-based therapy, no association of therapeutic response or PFS with CEA serum levels was found. As expected, baseline CEA levels were prognostic for mCRC. These data give first evidence that baseline serum CEA levels might constitute an important predictor for the efficacy of first-line bevacizumab-based therapy in patients with mCRC. Previously, we found that CEA induces angiogenesis independent of VEGF. The data presented here now give first evidence that baseline serum CEA levels in patients might constitute an important predictor for the efficacy of first-line bevacizumab-based therapy for metastatic colorectal cancer. PMID:24850362

  1. An Empirical Approach to Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Stream Water Chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, J. R.; Hawkins, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change may affect stream solute concentrations by three mechanisms: dilution associated with increased precipitation, evaporative concentration associated with increased temperature, and changes in solute inputs associated with changes in climate-driven weathering. We developed empirical models predicting base-flow water chemistry from watershed geology, soils, and climate for 1975 individual stream sites across the conterminous USA. We then predicted future solute concentrations (2065 and 2099) by applying down-scaled global climate model predictions to these models. The electrical conductivity model (EC, model R2 = 0.78) predicted mean increases in EC of 19 μS/cm by 2065 and 40 μS/cm by 2099. However predicted responses for individual streams ranged from a 43% decrease to a 4x increase. Streams with the greatest predicted decreases occurred in the southern Rocky Mountains and Mid-West, whereas southern California and Sierra Nevada streams showed the greatest increases. Generally, streams in dry areas underlain by non-calcareous rocks were predicted to be the most vulnerable to increases in EC associated with climate change. Predicted changes in other water chemistry parameters (e.g., Acid Neutralization Capacity (ANC), SO4, and Ca) were similar to EC, although the magnitude of ANC and SO4 change was greater. Predicted changes in ANC and SO4 are in general agreement with those changes already observed in seven locations with long term records.

  2. Irregular variations of Sea Level Anomaly data and their impact on prediction errors of these data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zbylut-Górska, Maria; Kosek, Wieslaw; Niedzielski, Tomasz; Popiński, Waldemar; Wnęk, Agnieszka

    2015-04-01

    The movement of water around the oceans caused by density and a wind driven circulation plays a significant role in variation of sea surface heights which is now observed by satellite altimetry. Weekly SLA data thanks to courtesy of AVISO (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic) service were analyzed to detect their irregular variations using the two time-frequency methods: Fourier Transform Band Pass Filter with Hilbert Transform (FTBPF+HT) and Complex demodulation with the Fourier Transform Low Pass Filter (CD+FTLPF). Using these two methods it is possible to compute time variable amplitudes and phases of oscillations as a function of geographic location. The global ocean maps of the standard deviations of amplitude differences and products of amplitude and phase differences for the annual oscillation and other shorter period oscillations with frequencies being an integer multiplicity of the annual frequency were computed to show the ocean areas with the greatest irregular variations. Such irregular amplitude and phase variations of the oscillations are the main causes of the SLA prediction errors. The predictions of the SLA time series were computed by a combination of the polynomial-harmonic model with the autoregressive prediction in the frame of PROGNOCEAN prediction service at the University of Wroclaw. The maps of these standard deviations are very similar to the maps of the mean prediction errors for a two weeks in the future of the SLA data. Thus, it's possible that the broadband annual oscillation is the main cause of the increase of the SLA data prediction errors.

  3. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2002--Volume 2: Continuous ground-water-level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Leeth, David C.; Peck, Michael F.

    2002-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2002 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2002, including: discharge records of 154 gaging stations; stage for 165 gaging stations; precipitation for 105 gaging stations; information for 20 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 27 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 72 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 50 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2002, including continuous water-level records of 155 ground-water wells and periodic records at 132 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  4. Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean-atmosphere dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, Elaine R.; Spillman, Claire M.; Church, John A.; McIntosh, Peter C.

    2014-10-01

    Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993-2010 and model reanalysis over 1981-2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981-2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.

  5. Improving Neural Network Prediction Accuracy for PM10 Individual Air Quality Index Pollution Levels

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Qi; Wu, Shengjun; Du, Yun; Xue, Huaiping; Xiao, Fei; Ban, Xuan; Li, Xiaodong

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Fugitive dust deriving from construction sites is a serious local source of particulate matter (PM) that leads to air pollution in cities undergoing rapid urbanization in China. In spite of this fact, no study has yet been published relating to prediction of high levels of PM with diameters <10 μm (PM10) as adjudicated by the Individual Air Quality Index (IAQI) on fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. To combat this problem, the Construction Influence Index (Ci) is introduced in this article to improve forecasting models based on three neural network models (multilayer perceptron, Elman, and support vector machine) in predicting daily PM10 IAQI one day in advance. To obtain acceptable forecasting accuracy, measured time series data were decomposed into wavelet representations and wavelet coefficients were predicted. Effectiveness of these forecasters were tested using a time series recorded between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011, at six monitoring stations situated within the urban area of the city of Wuhan, China. Experimental trials showed that the improved models provided low root mean square error values and mean absolute error values in comparison to the original models. In addition, these improved models resulted in higher values of coefficients of determination and AHPC (the accuracy rate of high PM10 IAQI caused by nearby construction activity) compared to the original models when predicting high PM10 IAQI levels attributable to fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. PMID:24381481

  6. Lake Storage Measurements For Water Resources Management: Combining Remotely Sensed Water Levels and Surface Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Presently operating satellite-based radar altimeters have the ability to monitor variations in surface water height for large lakes and reservoirs, and future sensors will expand observational capabilities to many smaller water bodies. Such remote sensing provides objective, independent information where in situ data are lacking or access is restricted. A USDA/NASA (http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/) program is performing operational altimetric monitoring of the largest lakes and reservoirs around the world using data from the NASA/CNES, NRL, and ESA missions. Public lake-level products from the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM) are a combination of archived and near real time information. The USDA/FAS utilizes the products for assessing international irrigation potential and for crop production estimates; other end-users study climate trends, observe anthropogenic effects, and/or are are involved in other water resources management and regional water security issues. At the same time, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/), its NASA GSFC partners (http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/floodmap/home.html), and associated MODIS data and automated processing algorithms are providing public access to a growing GIS record of the Earth's changing surface water extent, including changes related to floods and droughts. The Observatory's web site also provide both archival and near real time information, and is based mainly on the highest spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS bands. Therefore, it is now possible to provide on an international basis reservoir and lake storage change measurements entirely from remote sensing, on a frequently updating basis. The volume change values are based on standard numerical procedures used for many decades for analysis of coeval lake area and height data. We provide first results of this combination, including prototype displays for public access and data retrieval of water storage

  7. Epstein-Barr virus latency type and spontaneous reactivation predict lytic induction levels.

    PubMed

    Phan, An T; Fernandez, Samantha G; Somberg, Jessica J; Keck, Kristin M; Miranda, Jj L

    2016-05-20

    The human Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) evades the immune system by entering a transcriptionally latent phase in B cells. EBV in tumor cells expresses distinct patterns of genes referred to as latency types. Viruses in tumor cells also display varying levels of lytic transcription resulting from spontaneous reactivation out of latency. We measured this dynamic range of lytic transcription with RNA deep sequencing and observed no correlation with EBV latency types among genetically different viruses, but type I cell lines reveal more spontaneous reactivation than isogenic type III cultures. We further determined that latency type and spontaneous reactivation levels predict the relative amount of induced reactivation generated by cytotoxic chemotherapy drugs. Our work has potential implications for personalizing medicine against EBV-transformed malignancies. Identifying latency type or measuring spontaneous reactivation may provide predictive power in treatment contexts where viral production should be either avoided or coerced. PMID:27091426

  8. Model analysis of effects on water levels at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by construction dewatering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marie, James R.

    1976-01-01

    The computer models were developed to investigate possible hydrologic effects within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by planned dewatering at the adjacent Bailly Nuclear Generator construction site. The model analysis indicated that the planned dewatering would cause a drawdown of about 4 ft under the westernmost pond of the Lakeshore and that this drawdown would cause the pond to go almost dry--less than 0.5 ft of water remaining in about 1 percent of the pond--under average conditions during the 18-month dewatering period. When water levels are below average, as during late July and early August 1974, the pond would go dry in about 5.5 months. However, the pond may not have to go completely dry to damage the ecosystem. If the National Park Service 's independent study determines the minimum pond level at which ecosystem damage would be minimized, the models developed in this study could be used to predict the hydrologic conditions necessary to maintain that level

  9. Predicting sub-grid variability of soil water content from basic soil information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Wei; Bogena, Heye; Huisman, Johan Alexander; Vanderborght, Jan; Schuh, Max; Priesack, Eckart; Vereecken, Harry

    2015-04-01

    Knowledge of unresolved soil water content variability within model grid cells (i.e. sub-grid variability) is important for accurate predictions of land-surface energy and hydrologic fluxes. Here, we derived a closed-form expression to describe how soil water content variability depends on mean soil water content using stochastic analysis of 1D unsaturated gravitational flow based on the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) model. A sensitivity analysis of this closed-form expression showed that the n parameter strongly influenced both the shape and magnitude of the maximum of this relationship. In a next step, the closed-form expression was used to predict soil water content variability for eight datasets with varying soil texture using VGM parameters obtained from pedotransfer functions that rely on readily available soil information. Generally, there was good agreement between observed and predicted soil water content variability despite the obvious simplifications that were used to derive the closed-form expression (e.g. gravity flow in dry soils). A simplified closed-form expression that neglected the effect of pressure head fluctuations showed that the good performance in the dry soil range is related to the dominant role of the variability in MVG parameters determining water retention as compared to the effect of water flow. Furthermore, the novel closed-form expression was successfully used to inversely estimate the variability of hydraulic properties from observed data on soil water content variability from several test sites in Germany, China and Australia.

  10. Prediction of the alveolar bone level after the extraction of maxillary anterior teeth with severe periodontitis

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Purpose After extraction, the alveolar bone tends to undergo atrophy in three-dimensions. The amount of alveolar bone loss in the horizontal dimension has been reported to be greater than the amount of bone loss in the vertical dimension, and is most pronounced in the buccal aspect. The aim of this study was to monitor the predictive alveolar bone level following the extraction of anterior teeth seriously involved with advanced chronic periodontitis. Methods This study included 25 patients with advanced chronic periodontitis, whose maxillary anterior teeth had been extracted due to extensive attachment loss more than one year before the study. Periapical radiographs were analyzed to assess the vertical level of alveolar bone surrounding the edentulous area. An imaginary line connecting the mesial and the distal ends of the alveolar crest facing the adjacent tooth was arbitrarily created. Several representative coordinates were established in the horizontal direction, and the vertical distance from the imaginary line to the alveolar crest was measured at each coordinate for each patient using image analysis software. Regression functions predicting the vertical level of the alveolar bone in the maxillary anterior edentulous area were identified for each patient. Results The regression functions demonstrated a tendency to converge to parabolic shapes. The predicted maximum distance between the imaginary line and the alveolar bone calculated using the regression function was 1.43±0.65 mm. No significant differences were found between the expected and actual maximum distances. Likewise, the predicted and actual maximum horizontal distances did not show any significant differences. The distance from the alveolar bone crest to the imaginary lines was not influenced by the mesio-distal spans of the edentulous area. Conclusions After extraction, the vertical level of the alveolar ridge increased to become closer to the reference line connecting the mesial and distal

  11. Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

    PubMed

    Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

    2015-12-01

    , population-level risk prediction for type 2 diabetes using readily available administrative data is feasible and has better prediction performance than classical diabetes risk prediction algorithms on very large populations with missing data. The new model enables intervention allocation at national scale quickly and accurately and recovers potentially novel risk factors at different stages before the disease onset. PMID:27441408

  12. Exploratory multivariate modeling and prediction of the physico-chemical properties of surface water and groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayoko, Godwin A.; Singh, Kirpal; Balerea, Steven; Kokot, Serge

    2007-03-01

    SummaryPhysico-chemical properties of surface water and groundwater samples from some developing countries have been subjected to multivariate analyses by the non-parametric multi-criteria decision-making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Complete ranking information necessary to select one source of water in preference to all others was obtained, and this enabled relationships between the physico-chemical properties and water quality to be assessed. Thus, the ranking of the quality of the water bodies was found to be strongly dependent on the total dissolved solid, phosphate, sulfate, ammonia-nitrogen, calcium, iron, chloride, magnesium, zinc, nitrate and fluoride contents of the waters. However, potassium, manganese and zinc composition showed the least influence in differentiating the water bodies. To model and predict the water quality influencing parameters, partial least squares analyses were carried out on a matrix made up of the results of water quality assessment studies carried out in Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Egypt, Thailand and India/Pakistan. The results showed that the total dissolved solid, calcium, sulfate, sodium and chloride contents can be used to predict a wide range of physico-chemical characteristics of water. The potential implications of these observations on the financial and opportunity costs associated with elaborate water quality monitoring are discussed.

  13. Predicting Gene Expression Level from Relative Codon Usage Bias: An Application to Escherichia coli Genome

    PubMed Central

    Roymondal, Uttam; Das, Shibsankar; Sahoo, Satyabrata

    2009-01-01

    We present an expression measure of a gene, devised to predict the level of gene expression from relative codon bias (RCB). There are a number of measures currently in use that quantify codon usage in genes. Based on the hypothesis that gene expressivity and codon composition is strongly correlated, RCB has been defined to provide an intuitively meaningful measure of an extent of the codon preference in a gene. We outline a simple approach to assess the strength of RCB (RCBS) in genes as a guide to their likely expression levels and illustrate this with an analysis of Escherichia coli (E. coli) genome. Our efforts to quantitatively predict gene expression levels in E. coli met with a high level of success. Surprisingly, we observe a strong correlation between RCBS and protein length indicating natural selection in favour of the shorter genes to be expressed at higher level. The agreement of our result with high protein abundances, microarray data and radioactive data demonstrates that the genomic expression profile available in our method can be applied in a meaningful way to the study of cell physiology and also for more detailed studies of particular genes of interest. PMID:19131380

  14. Validation-comparison of predicted and measured levels in industrial spaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Probst, Wolfgang

    2002-11-01

    Financed by the German Federal Agency for Labor and Social Affairs, several methods of calculating the noise propagation in industrial halls were used for about 150 halls and compared with measurements. With all noise sources, such as machines and equipment stopped, a dodecahedron loudspeaker emitting broadband noise was used, and the octave-band levels were measured on different propagation paths. The room geometry and equipment in the room were entered into uniform datasets, the calculation methods were applied to each dataset, and the results in terms of deviations between calculated and measured values were evaluated statistically. The prediction method with the smallest deviations was chosen for further evaluation. This method, which uses mirror images with approximations and takes into account diffraction with a method first developed by Kuttruff and extended by Jovicic, uses mean values for fittings and absorption at walls and ceilings. This method has been incorporated into VDI 3760, and will be extended in the future to take into account screening by single objects and the real distribution of absorptive materials on surfaces. Representative experimental results, calculation techniques, predicted levels, and deviations between measured and predicted levels are presented.

  15. The Summarization of Pyro-shock Testing Data and SRS Level Prediction Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Qinzhong; Ando, Shigemasa; Seko, Hiromi; Nagahama, Kenta; Saegusa, Hiroshi

    2004-08-01

    Mechanical separation through pyrotechnic shock is widely employed in space vehicle separation. These kinds of pyrotechnic shock devices produce transient loads with high levels of acceleration at different location of satellite. The prediction of acceleration level is significant for the definition of payload shock environment in the earlier design phase and selection of proper accelerometers in the test. This paper summarizes the shock response spectrum (SRS) from the pyrotechnical testing data of several typical satellites from the view points of distance from the source, complex equipment mount structure, etc. The empirical curve for the prediction possibility of pyrotechnic shock level is discussed. At first, the SRS distribution maps at the measure points were compared to understand the shock response environment which may differ from the distance attenuation from the shock source, effects of material and size of structural components, effects of joints and inserts of structural components, etc. Then, the paper discusses the prediction methodologies related to the empirical and extrapolation model presented by NASA-HDBK-7005 is compared to the testing data distribution of several satellites.

  16. Hemoglobin and Hematocrit Levels in the Prediction of Complicated Crohn's Disease Behavior – A Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Rieder, Florian; Paul, Gisela; Schnoy, Elisabeth; Schleder, Stephan; Wolf, Alexandra; Kamm, Florian; Dirmeier, Andrea; Strauch, Ulrike; Obermeier, Florian; Lopez, Rocio; Achkar, Jean-Paul; Rogler, Gerhard; Klebl, Frank

    2014-01-01

    Background Markers that predict the occurrence of a complicated disease behavior in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) can permit a more aggressive therapeutic regimen for patients at risk. The aim of this cohort study was to test the blood levels of hemoglobin (Hgb) and hematocrit (Hct) for the prediction of complicated CD behavior and CD related surgery in an adult patient population. Methods Blood samples of 62 CD patients of the German Inflammatory Bowel Disease-network “Kompetenznetz CED” were tested for the levels of Hgb and Hct prior to the occurrence of complicated disease behavior or CD related surgery. The relation of these markers and clinical events was studied using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and adjusted COX-proportional hazard regression models. Results The median follow-up time was 55.8 months. Of the 62 CD patients without any previous complication or surgery 34% developed a complication and/or underwent CD related surgery. Low Hgb or Hct levels were independent predictors of a shorter time to occurrence of the first complication or CD related surgery. This was true for early as well as late occurring complications. Stable low Hgb or Hct during serial follow-up measurements had a higher frequency of complications compared to patients with a stable normal Hgb or Hct, respectively. Conclusions Determination of Hgb or Hct in complication and surgery naïve CD patients might serve as an additional tool for the prediction of complicated disease behavior. PMID:25116048

  17. Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

  18. Prediction of full-scale dewatering results of sewage sludges by the physical water distribution.

    PubMed

    Kopp, J; Dichtl, N

    2001-01-01

    The dewaterability of sewage sludge can be described by the total solids concentration of the sludge cake and the polymer-demand for conditioning. The total solids concentration of the sludge cake depends on the physical water distribution. The various types of water in sewage sludge are mainly distinguished by the type and the intensity of their physical bonding to the solids. In a sewage sludge suspension four different types of water can be distinguished. These are the free water, which is not bound to the particles, the interstitial water, which is bound by capillary forces between the sludge flocs, the surface water, which is bound by adhesive forces and intracellular water. Only the share of free water can be separated during mechanical dewatering. It can be shown, that by thermo-gravimeteric measurement of the free water content, an exact prediction of full-scale dewatering results is possible. By separation of all free water during centrifugation the maximum dewatering result is reached. Polymer conditioning increases the velocity of the sludge water release, but the free water content is not influenced by this process. Furthermore it is not possible, to replace the measuring of the water distribution by other individual parameters such as ignition loss. PMID:11443955

  19. Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

  20. Prediction of water quality index in constructed wetlands using support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Mohammadpour, Reza; Shaharuddin, Syafiq; Chang, Chun Kiat; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Ab Ghani, Aminuddin; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2015-04-01

    Poor water quality is a serious problem in the world which threatens human health, ecosystems, and plant/animal life. Prediction of surface water quality is a main concern in water resource and environmental systems. In this research, the support vector machine and two methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and radial basis function (RBF), were used to predict the water quality index (WQI) in a free constructed wetland. Seventeen points of the wetland were monitored twice a month over a period of 14 months, and an extensive dataset was collected for 11 water quality variables. A detailed comparison of the overall performance showed that prediction of the support vector machine (SVM) model with coefficient of correlation (R(2)) = 0.9984 and mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.0052 was either better or comparable with neural networks. This research highlights that the SVM and FFBP can be successfully employed for the prediction of water quality in a free surface constructed wetland environment. These methods simplify the calculation of the WQI and reduce substantial efforts and time by optimizing the computations. PMID:25408070

  1. Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Anttila, Jani; Spetz, Peter; Kitunen, Veikko; Tapanila, Tarja; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    There is increasing evidence that changes in the species composition and structure of plant communities induced by global change will have much more impact on plant-mediated carbon cycling than any phenotypic responses. These impacts are largely mediated by shifts in litter quality. There are few documentations of these changes so far, due to the relatively long time scale required for their direct observation. Here, we examine the changes in litter inputs induced by persistent water-level drawdown in boreal peatland sites. Peatlands contain a major proportion of the terrestrial carbon pool, and it is thus important to be able to predict their behaviour and role in the global C cycle under different global change factors. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent water level (WL) drawdown on the quantity and chemical quality of above-ground plant litter inputs at three sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included various extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium, magnesium, manganese and calcium. Four different groups of litter were clearly distinct based on their chemical quality: foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litter. Following short-term WL drawdown, changes in the quality and quantity of litter inputs were small. Following long-term WL drawdown, total litter inputs dramatically increased, due to increased tree litter inputs, and the litter type composition greatly changed. These changes resulted in annual inputs of 1901-2010 kg•ha-1 C, 22-24 kg•ha-1 N, 1.5-2.2 kg•ha-1 P, 967-1235 kg•ha-1 lignin and lignin-like compounds and 254-300 kg•ha-1 water solubles after long-term WL

  2. Prediction of water vapor transport rates across polyvinylchloride packaging systems using a novel radiotracer method

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, R.W.; Mulski, M.J.; Kuu, W.Y. )

    1990-09-01

    A radiotracer method is used to study the transport properties of water vapor in polyvinylchloride (PVC), a plastic commonly used in the packaging of parenteral solutions. Water vapor transport across a PVC film appears to be Fickian in nature. Using the steady-state solution of Fick's second law and the permeability coefficient of water vapor across the PVC film obtained using the described method, the predicted water vapor transport rate (WVTR) for a parenteral solution packaged in PVC is in reasonable agreement with actual WVTR as determined by weight loss under precisely controlled conditions.

  3. Prediction of contaminant fate and transport in potable water systems using H2OFate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devarakonda, Venkat; Manickavasagam, Sivakumar; VanBlaricum, Vicki; Ginsberg, Mark

    2009-05-01

    BlazeTech has recently developed a software called H2OFate to predict the fate and transport of chemical and biological contaminants in water distribution systems. This software includes models for the reactions of these contaminants with residual disinfectant in bulk water and at the pipe wall, and their adhesion/reactions with the pipe walls. This software can be interfaced with sensors through SCADA systems to monitor water distribution networks for contamination events and activate countermeasures, as needed. This paper presents results from parametric calculations carried out using H2OFate for a simulated contaminant release into a sample water distribution network.

  4. Correlation between predicted and observed levels of airborne tritium at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory site boundary

    SciTech Connect

    Lindeken, C.L.; Silver, W.J.; Toy, A.J.; White, J.H.

    1980-02-19

    At the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, a computer code based on the Gaussian plume model is used to estimate radiation doses from routine or accidental release of airborne radioactive material. Routine releases of tritium have been used as a test of the overall uncertainty associated with these estimates. The ration of concentration to release rate at distances from the two principal release points to each of six site boundary sampling locations has been calcuated using local meteorological data. The concentration of airborne tritiated water vapor is continuously measured at the six sampling stations as part of the Laboratory's environmental monitoring program. Comparison of predicted with observed annual tritiated water concentrations in 1978 showed an average ratio of 2.6 with a range of from 0.97 to 5.8.

  5. Investigating Storm-Induced Total Water Levels on Complex Barred Beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

    2013-12-01

    Water levels in coastal environments are not static, but rather vary from a range of factors including mean sea level, tides, storm surge, and wave runup. Cumulatively these superimposed factors determine the total water level (TWL), the extent of which has major implications for coastal erosion and inundation during periods of high energy. Storm-induced, super-elevated water levels pose a threat to low lying coastal regions, as clearly demonstrated by recent events such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. For this reason, the ability to accurately predict the TWL is crucial for both emergency managers and coastal planners. While some components of TWL are well understood (e.g., tides) there is still significant uncertainty in predicting runup, a process that can be a major contributor to instantaneous TWLs. Traditionally, empirical relationships derived from observational field data have been used to estimate runup, including wave setup and both incident and infragravity swash (Stockdon et al., 2006). While these formulations have shown skill in predicting the runup extent on natural beaches, these equations consider only the most basic contributing factors - namely the mean foreshore beach slope, the offshore wave height, and offshore wave period. Not included in these empirical estimates is the role of nearshore morphology on TWLs. However, it has long been recognized that nearshore sandbars act as natural barriers to coastal erosion during storm events by dissipating wave energy far from the beach face. Nonetheless, the influence of nearshore morphology on inner surf zone processes, including wave runup, is poorly understood. Recent pioneering studies (eg., Soldini et al., 2013 and Stephens et al., 2011) have explored the role of simple nearshore features (single Gaussian bars) on swash processes. Many locations in the world, however, are characterized by more complex morphologies such as multiple barred systems. Further, in many such places, including Columbia

  6. Short-term water level forecasts for the Laurentian Great Lakes using coupled atmosphere, land-surface and lake models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortin, Vincent; Mackay, Murray; Casas-Prat, Mercè; Seglenieks, Frank; Dyck, Sarah; Dupont, Frédéric; Roy, François; Smith, Gregory C.

    2015-04-01

    Over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Environment Canada operates a very successful short-term (48-h) environmental prediction system which includes the GEM atmospheric model, the ISBA land-surface model and the NEMO-CICE ice-ocean model. The positive impact of two-way coupling between the atmosphere and ocean is most clearly seen in winter, due to the presence of a dynamic ice cover and large heat fluxes over the ocean. This system is now being tested over the Laurentian Great Lakes, with the same objective of improving forecasts both for the atmosphere and the water bodies. In order to account for the significant impact of streamflow on the water level and water temperature of the Great Lakes, routing models for river flow and for connecting channels between lakes were added to the system. Offline tests demonstrated the capacity of the system to accurately simulate seasonal and multi-annual fluctuations in water levels and ice cover, as well as the need for consistent heat flux calculations in the atmospheric and ocean models. In this presentation, we focus on the skill of short-term water level forecasts. Over a few days, water levels of the Great Lakes mainly respond to the wind stress, but also change with surface pressure, precipitation, evaporation and river flow. The approach taken to account for each of these factors is described, and the skill of the resulting water level forecast is assessed over the fall of 2014 and the winter of 2015. It is shown that the system can accurately predict storm surges and seiches at the hourly time scale, with a skill that decreases slowly over 48-h, suggesting that skillful forecasts with longer lead times are feasible. A plan for increasing the lead time up to one month is presented.

  7. Systemic Inflammatory Response and Serum Lipopolysaccharide Levels Predict Multiple Organ Failure and Death in Alcoholic Hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Michelena, Javier; Altamirano, José; Abraldes, Juan G.; Affò, Silvia; Morales-Ibanez, Oriol; Sancho-Bru, Pau; Dominguez, Marlene; García-Pagán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Javier; Arroyo, Vicente; Ginès, Pere; Louvet, Alexandre; Mathurin, Philippe; Mehal, Wajahat Z.; Caballería, Juan; Bataller, Ramón

    2015-01-01

    Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) frequently progresses to multiple organ failure (MOF) and death. However, the driving factors are largely unknown. At admission, patients with AH often show criteria of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) even in the absence of an infection. We hypothesize that the presence of SIRS may predispose to MOF and death. To test this hypothesis, we studied a cohort including 162 patients with biopsy-proven AH. The presence of SIRS and infections was assessed in all patients, and multivariate analyses identified variables independently associated with MOF and 90-day mortality. At admission, 32 (19.8%) patients were diagnosed with a bacterial infection, while 75 (46.3%) fulfilled SIRS criteria; 58 patients (35.8%) developed MOF during hospitalization. Short-term mortality was significantly higher among patients who developed MOF (62.1% versus 3.8%, P <0.001). The presence of SIRS was a major predictor of MOF (odds ratio = 2.69, P=0.025) and strongly correlated with mortality. Importantly, the course of patients with SIRS with and without infection was similar in terms of MOF development and short-term mortality. Finally, we sought to identify serum markers that differentiate SIRS with and without infection. We studied serum levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lipopolysaccharide at admission. All of them predicted mortality. Procalcitonin, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, serum levels identified those patients with SIRS and infection. Lipopolysaccharide serum levels predicted MOF and the response to prednisolone. Conclusion In the presence or absence of infections, SIRS is a major determinant of MOF and mortality in AH, and the mechanisms involved in the development of SIRS should be investigated; procalcitonin serum levels can help to identify patients with infection, and lipopolysaccharide levels may help to predict mortality and the response to steroids. PMID:25761863

  8. Molecular level water and solute transport in reverse osmosis membranes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lueptow, Richard M.; Shen, Meng; Keten, Sinan

    2015-11-01

    The water permeability and rejection characteristics of six solutes, methanol, ethanol, 2-propanol, urea, Na+, and Cl-, were studied for a polymeric reverse osmosis (RO) membrane using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations. Results indicate that water flux increases with an increasing fraction of percolated free volume in the membrane polymer structure. Solute molecules display Brownian motion and hop from pore to pore as they pass through the membrane. The solute rejection depends on both the size of the solute molecule and the chemical interaction of the solute with water and the membrane. When the open spaces in the polymeric structure are such that solutes have to shed at least one water molecule from their solvation shell to pass through the membrane molecular structure, the water-solute pair interaction energy governs solute rejection. Organic solutes more easily shed water molecules than ions to more readily pass through the membrane. Hydrogen-bonding sites for molecules like urea also lead to a higher rejection. These findings underline the importance of the solute's solvation shell and solute-water-membrane chemistry in solute transport and rejection in RO membranes. Funded by the Institute for Sustainability and Energy at Northwestern with computing resources from XSEDE (NSF grant ACI-1053575).

  9. Options for water-level control in developed wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kelley, J. R., Jr.; Laubhan, M. K.; Reid, F. A.; Wortham, J. S.; Fredrickson, L. H.

    1993-01-01

    Wetland habitats in the United States currently are lost at a rate of 260,000 acres/year (105,218 ha/year). Consequently, water birds concentrate in fewer and smaller areas. Such concentrations may deplete food supplies and influence behavior, physiology, and survival. Continued losses increase the importance of sound management of the remaining wetlands because water birds depend on them. Human activities modified the natural hydrology of most remaining wetlands in the conterminous United States, and such hydrologic alterations frequently reduce wetland productivity. The restoration of original wetland functions and productivity often requires the development of water distribution and discharge systems to emulate natural hydrologic regimes. Construction of levees and correct placement of control structures and water-delivery and water-discharge systems are necessary to (1) create soil and water conditions for the germination of desirable plants, (2) control nuisance vegetation, (3) promote the production of invertebrates, and (4) make foods available for wildlife that depends of wetlands (Leaflets 13.2.1 and 13.4.6). This paper provides basic guidelines for the design of wetlands that benefit wildlife. If biological considerations are not incorporated into such designs, the capability of managing wetlands for water birds is reduced and costs often are greater. Although we address the development of palustrine wetlands in migration and wintering areas, many of the discussed principles are applicable to the development of other wetland types and in other locations.

  10. Changes in water level, land use, and hydrological budget in a semi-permanent playa lake, southwest Spain.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Rodríguez, M; Green, A J; López, R; Martos-Rosillo, S

    2012-01-01

    Medina playa lake, a Ramsar site in western Andalusia, is a brackish lowland lake of 120 ha with an average depth of 1 m. Water flows into Medina from its 1,748-ha watershed, but the hydrology of the lake has not previously been studied. This paper describes the application of a water budget model on a monthly scale over a 6-year period, based on a conceptual hydrological model, and considers different future scenarios after calibration to improve the understanding of the lake's hydrological functioning. Climatic variables from a nearby weather station and observational data (water-level evolution) were used to develop the model. Comparison of measured and predicted values demonstrated that each model component provided a reasonable output with a realistic interaction among the components. The model was then used to explore the potential consequences of land-use changes. Irrigation of olive groves would significantly reduce both the hydroperiod (becoming dry 15% of the time) and the average depth of the lake (water level <0.5 m 40% of the time). On the other hand, removal of an artificial overflow would double the average flooded surface area during high-water periods. The simulated water balance demonstrates that the catchment outputs are dominated by lake evaporation and surface outflow from the lake system to a creek. Discrepancies between predicted and observed water levels identify key areas of uncertainty for future empirical research. The study provides an improved basis for future hydrological management of the catchment and demonstrates the wider utility of this methodology in simulating this kind of system. This methodology provides a realistic appraisal of potential land-use management practices on a catchment-wide scale and allows predictions of the consequences of climate change. PMID:21461983

  11. Options for future effective water management in Lombok: A multi-level nested framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sjah, Taslim; Baldwin, Claudia

    2014-11-01

    Previous research on water use in Lombok identified reduced water available in springs and limits on seasonal water availability. It foreshadowed increasing competition for water resources in critical areas of Lombok. This study examines preliminary information on local social-institutional arrangements for water allocation in the context of Ostrom's rules for self-governing institutions. We identify robust customary mechanisms for decision-making about water sharing and rules at a local level and suggest areas of further investigation for strengthening multi-level networked and nested frameworks, in collaboration with higher levels of government.

  12. Predicting spatial kelp abundance in shallow coastal waters using the acoustic ground discrimination system RoxAnn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielck, F.; Bartsch, I.; Hass, H. C.; Wölfl, A.-C.; Bürk, D.; Betzler, C.

    2014-04-01

    Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not

  13. Model Predictive Control application for real time operation of controlled structures for the Water Authority Noorderzijlvest, The Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan; Gooijer, Jan; Knot, Floris; Talsma, Jan

    2015-04-01

    In the Netherlands, flood protection has always been a key issue to protect settlements against storm surges and riverine floods. Whereas flood protection traditionally focused on structural measures, nowadays the availability of meteorological and hydrological forecasts enable the application of more advanced real-time control techniques for operating the existing hydraulic infrastructure in an anticipatory and more efficient way. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a powerful technique to derive optimal control variables with the help of model based predictions evaluated against a control objective. In a project for the regional water authority Noorderzijlvest in the north of the Netherlands, it has been shown that MPC can increase the safety level of the system during flood events by an anticipatory pre-release of water. Furthermore, energy costs of pumps can be reduced by making tactical use of the water storage and shifting pump activities during normal operating conditions to off-peak hours. In this way cheap energy is used in combination of gravity flow through gates during low tide periods. MPC has now been implemented for daily operational use of the whole water system of the water authority Noorderzijlvest. The system developed to a real time decision support system which not only supports the daily operation but is able to directly implement the optimal control settings at the structures. We explain how we set-up and calibrated a prediction model (RTC-Tools) that is accurate and fast enough for optimization purposes, and how we integrated it in the operational flood early warning system (Delft-FEWS). Beside the prediction model, the weights and the factors of the objective function are an important element of MPC, since they shape the control objective. We developed special features in Delft-FEWS to allow the operators to adjust the objective function in order to meet changing requirements and to evaluate different control strategies.

  14. Development of wavelet-ANN models to predict water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Alizadeh, Mohamad Javad; Kavianpour, Mohamad Reza

    2015-09-15

    The main objective of this study is to apply artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet-neural network (WNN) models for predicting a variety of ocean water quality parameters. In this regard, several water quality parameters in Hilo Bay, Pacific Ocean, are taken under consideration. Different combinations of water quality parameters are applied as input variables to predict daily values of salinity, temperature and DO as well as hourly values of DO. The results demonstrate that the WNN models are superior to the ANN models. Also, the hourly models developed for DO prediction outperform the daily models of DO. For the daily models, the most accurate model has R equal to 0.96, while for the hourly model it reaches up to 0.98. Overall, the results show the ability of the model to monitor the ocean parameters, in condition with missing data, or when regular measurement and monitoring are impossible. PMID:26140748

  15. Prediction of vegetation anomalies to improve food security and water management in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asoka, Akarsh; Mishra, Vimal

    2015-07-01

    Prediction of vegetation anomalies at regional scales is essential for management of food and water resources. Forecast of vegetation anomalies at 1-3 months lead time can help in decision making. Here we show that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along with other hydroclimatic variables (soil moisture and sea surface temperature) can be effectively used to predict vegetation anomalies in India. The spatiotemporal analysis of NDVI showed significant greening over the region during the period of 1982-2013. The root-zone soil moisture showed a positive correlation with NDVI, whereas the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index (Nino 3.4) is negatively correlated in most of the regions. We extended this relationship to develop a model to predict NDVI in 1 to 3 months lead time. The predicted vegetation anomalies compare well with observations, which can be effectively utilized in early warning and better planning in water resources and agricultural sectors in India.

  16. A comparison of simulation models for predicting soil water dynamics in bare and vegetated lysimeters

    SciTech Connect

    Link, S.O.; Kickert, R.N.; Fayer, M.J.; Gee, G.W.

    1993-06-01

    This report describes the results of simulation models used to predict soil water storage dynamics at the Field Lysimeter Test Facility (FLTF) weighing lysimeters. The objectives of this research is to develop the capability to predict soil water storage dynamics with plants in support of water infiltration control studies for the Hanford Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program. It is important to gain confidence in one`s ability to simulate soil water dynamics over long time periods to assess the barrier`s ability to prevent drainage. Two models were compared for their ability to simulate soil water storage dynamics with and without plants in weighing lysimeters, the soil water infiltration and movement (SWIM) and the simulation of production and utilization of rangelands (SPUR-91) models. These models adequately simulated soil water storage dynamics for the weighing lysimeters. The range of root mean square error values for the two models was 7.0 to 19.8. This compares well with the range reported by Fayer et al. (1992) for the bare soil data sets of 8.1 to 22.1. Future research will test the predictive capability of these models for longer term lysimeter data sets and for historical data sets collected in various plant community types.

  17. S100B Serum Levels Predict Treatment Response in Patients with Melancholic Depression

    PubMed Central

    Bergink, Veerle; Grosse, Laura; Alferink, Judith; Drexhage, Hemmo A.; Rothermundt, Matthias; Arolt, Volker; Birkenhäger, Tom K.

    2016-01-01

    Background: There is an ongoing search for biomarkers in psychiatry, for example, as diagnostic tools or predictors of treatment response. The neurotrophic factor S100 calcium binding protein B (S100B) has been discussed as a possible predictor of antidepressant response in patients with major depression, but also as a possible biomarker of an acute depressive state. The aim of the present study was to study the association of serum S100B levels with antidepressant treatment response and depression severity in melancholically depressed inpatients. Methods: After a wash-out period of 1 week, 40 inpatients with melancholic depression were treated with either venlafaxine or imipramine. S100B levels and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) scores were assessed at baseline, after 7 weeks of treatment, and after 6 months. Results: Patients with high S100B levels at baseline showed a markedly better treatment response defined as relative reduction in HAM-D scores than those with low baseline S100B levels after 7 weeks (P=.002) and 6 months (P=.003). In linear regression models, S100B was a significant predictor for treatment response at both time points. It is of interest to note that nonresponders were detected with a predictive value of 85% and a false negative rate of 7.5%. S100B levels were not associated with depression severity and did not change with clinical improvement. Conclusions: Low S100B levels predict nonresponse to venlafaxine and imipramine with high precision. Future studies have to show which treatments are effective in patients with low levels of S100B so that this biomarker will help to reduce patients’ burden of nonresponding to frequently used antidepressants. PMID:26364276

  18. Study on short term prediction using observed water quality from 8-day intervals in Nakdong river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M.; Shon, T.; Joo, J.; Kim, J.; Shin, H.

    2012-12-01

    There are lots of accidents on water quality, like green algal blooms, occurring in Nakdong river which is one of the largest river in Korea. This is because of climate change around the world. It is essential to develop scientific and quantitative assessment methods. In this study, artificial neural network based on back propagation algorithm, which is simple and flexible method, was used for forecasting the water quality on the purpose of water resources management. Especially, as used observed water quality data from 8-day intervals in Nakdong river, it makes to increase the accuracy of water quality forecast over short term. This was established for predicting the water quality factors 1, 3, and 7 days ahead. The best model, as evaluated by its performance functions with RMSE and R2, was selected and applied to established models of BOD, DO, COD, and Chl-a using artificial neural network. The results showed that the models were suitable for 1 and 3 days forecasts in particular. This method is strong and convenient to predict water quality factors over the short term easily based on observed data. It is possible to overcome and manage problems related to the water resources. In the future, this will be a powerful method because it is basically based on observed water quality data.

  19. A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

  20. Total and High Molecular Weight Adiponectin Levels and Prediction of Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetic Patients

    PubMed Central

    Horáková, Dagmar; Azeem, Kateřina; Benešová, Radka; Pastucha, Dalibor; Horák, Vladimír; Dumbrovská, Lenka; Martínek, Arnošt; Novotný, Dalibor; Hobzová, Milada; Galuszková, Dana; Janout, Vladimír; Doněvská, Sandra; Vrbková, Jana; Kollárová, Helena

    2015-01-01

    The study aimed at assessing the potential use of lower total and HMW adiponectin levels for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Concentrations of total adiponectin or high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin decrease in association with the development of metabolic dysfunction such as obesity, insulin resistance, or T2DM. Increased adiponectin levels are associated with a lower risk for coronary heart disease. A total of 551 individuals were assessed. The first group comprised metabolically healthy participants (143 females, and 126 males) and the second group were T2DM patients (164 females, and 118 males). Both total adiponectin and HMW adiponectin in diabetic patients were significantly lower when compared with the group of metabolically healthy individuals. There was a weak monotonic correlation between HMW adiponectin levels and triglycerides levels. Binary logistic regression analysis, gender adjusted, showed a higher cardiovascular risk in diabetic persons when both total adiponectin (OR = 1.700) and HMW adiponectin (OR = 2.785) levels were decreased. A decrease in total adiponectin levels as well as a decrease in its HMW adiponectin is associated with a higher cardiovascular risk in individuals with T2DM. This association suggests that adiponectin levels may be potentially used as an epidemiological marker for cardiovascular risk in diabetic patients. PMID:26074960

  1. Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Patterns Predict Consciousness Level and Recovery Outcome in Acquired Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xuehai; Zou, Qihong; Hu, Jin; Tang, Weijun; Mao, Ying; Gao, Liang; Zhu, Jianhong; Jin, Yi; Wu, Xin; Lu, Lu; Zhang, Yaojun; Zhang, Yao; Dai, Zhengjia; Gao, Jia-Hong; Weng, Xuchu; Northoff, Georg; Giacino, Joseph T.; He, Yong

    2015-01-01

    For accurate diagnosis and prognostic prediction of acquired brain injury (ABI), it is crucial to understand the neurobiological mechanisms underlying loss of consciousness. However, there is no consensus on which regions and networks act as biomarkers for consciousness level and recovery outcome in ABI. Using resting-state fMRI, we assessed intrinsic functional connectivity strength (FCS) of whole-brain networks in a large sample of 99 ABI patients with varying degrees of consciousness loss (including fully preserved consciousness state, minimally conscious state, unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state, and coma) and 34 healthy control subjects. Consciousness level was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Scale and Coma Recovery Scale-Revised on the day of fMRI scanning; recovery outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale 3 months after the fMRI scanning. One-way ANOVA of FCS, Spearman correlation analyses between FCS and the consciousness level and recovery outcome, and FCS-based multivariate pattern analysis were performed. We found decreased FCS with loss of consciousness primarily distributed in the posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus (PCC/PCU), medial prefrontal cortex, and lateral parietal cortex. The FCS values of these regions were significantly correlated with consciousness level and recovery outcome. Multivariate support vector machine discrimination analysis revealed that the FCS patterns predicted whether patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state and coma would regain consciousness with an accuracy of 81.25%, and the most discriminative region was the PCC/PCU. These findings suggest that intrinsic functional connectivity patterns of the human posteromedial cortex could serve as a potential indicator for consciousness level and recovery outcome in individuals with ABI. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Varying degrees of consciousness loss and recovery are commonly observed in acquired brain injury patients, yet the

  2. Prediction of water content at different potentials from soil property data in Jazan region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alturki, Ali; Ibrahim, Hesham

    2016-04-01

    In dry regions effective irrigation management is crucial to maintain crop production and sustain limited water resources. Effective irrigation requires good knowledge of soil water content in the root zone. However, measurement of soil water in the root zone over time is extremely expensive and time consuming. On the other hand, weather and basic soil property data are more available, either from existing databases or by direct measurement in the field. Simulation models can be used to efficiently and accurately estimate soil water content and subsequent irrigation requirements based on the available weather and soil data. In this study we investigated three hierarchical approaches to predict water content at variable potentials (0, 10, 33, 60, 100, 300, 500, 800, 1000, and 1500 kPa) using the Rosetta model: soil texture class (STC); percent of sand, silt, and clay (SSC); bulk density, percent of sand, silt, and clay, and water content measurements at 33 and 1500 kPa (SSC+WC). Estimation of soil water content at 43 locations in Jazan region using the three hierarchical approaches was compared with gravimetric water content. Results showed that the three approaches failed to describe water content accurately at saturation conditions (<10kPa). At water potentials lower than 10 kPa, good agreement was obtained, in general, between measured and simulated soil water content indicating that soil property data can be used to provide adequate estimates of the average soil water content in the root zone. The third approach gave the best results as indicated by an average NSCE value of 0.75 as compared to 0.16 and 0.18 for the first and second approaches, respectively. The ability to predict the amount of available water in the soil profile will facilitate the accurate estimate of irrigation requirements and achieve effective irrigation scheduling especially in locations where only limited weather and soil date are available.

  3. A new method of analysis of water-level response to a moving boundary of a longwall mine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karaman, Abdullah; Akhiev, Seyidali S.; Carpenter, Philip J.

    1999-04-01

    Longwall coal mining is an economical method for coal extraction that allows most of the coal to be extracted from a wide rectangular panel. The roof of the working face area is temporarily held up by supports which advance as the mine face advances. A basin-like subsidence trough develops at the ground surface over the panel as the panel roof behind the supports collapses. A dynamic subsidence front causes a water-level drop at wells ahead of the panel. We examine the effects of subsidence on water-level by introducing a sink that moves with the mining face, using the one-dimensional flow equation. To test the validity of this method, we estimated aquifer parameters of Trivoli Sandstone aquifer over a longwall coal mine in the Illinois Basin by analyzing water-level versus time data measured from three observation wells. The presented method predicts a value of transmissivity and storage coefficient that is reasonably close to the average of pumping test results. With this method we provide solutions to two significant problems: (1) Presubs(2) water-level drops can be predicted for a planned longwall mine if the aquifer parameters are known.

  4. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2001, Volume 2: Continuous ground-water level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Cressler, Alan M.; Leeth, David C.

    2001-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2001 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2001, including: discharge records of 133 gaging stations; stage for 144 gaging stations; precipitation for 58 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 17 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 76 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 27 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2001, including continuous water-level records of 159 ground-water wells and periodic records at 138 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia. Note: Historically, this report was published as a paper report. For the 1999 and subsequent water-year reports, the Water Resources Data for Georgia changed to a new, more informative and functional format on CD-ROM. The format is based on a geographic information system (GIS) user interface that allows the user to view map locations of the hydrologic monitoring stations and networks within respective river basins. To obtain a copy of the CD version of this report, you may call the U.S. Geological Survey office in Atlanta at (770) 903-9100, or send e-mail to request the publication. Please include your name and mailing address in your e-mail.

  5. Predictive modeling for hot water inactivation of planktonic and biofilm-associated Sphingomonas parapaucimobilis to support hot water sanitization programs.

    PubMed

    Kaatz Wahlen, Laura; Parker, Al; Walker, Diane; Pasmore, Mark; Sturman, Paul

    2016-08-01

    Hot water sanitization is a common means to maintain microbial control in process equipment for industries where microorganisms can degrade product or cause safety issues. This study compared the hot water inactivation kinetics of planktonic and biofilm-associated Sphingomonas parapaucimobilis at temperatures relevant to sanitization processes used in the pharmaceutical industry, viz. 65, 70, 75, and 80°C. Biofilms exhibited greater resistance to hot water than the planktonic cells. Both linear and nonlinear statistical models were developed to predict the log reduction as a function of temperature and time. Nonlinear Michaelis-Menten modeling provided the best fit for the inactivation data. Using the model, predictions were calculated to determine the times at which specific log reductions are achieved. While ≥80°C is the most commonly cited temperature for hot water sanitization, the predictive modeling suggests that temperatures ≥75°C are also effective at inactivating planktonic and biofilm bacteria in timeframes appropriate for the pharmaceutical industry. PMID:27319816

  6. First-Trimester Serum Acylcarnitine Levels to Predict Preeclampsia: A Metabolomics Approach

    PubMed Central

    Koster, Maria P. H.; Vreeken, Rob J.; Harms, Amy C.; Dane, Adrie D.; Kuc, Sylwia; Schielen, Peter C. J. I.; Hankemeier, Thomas; Berger, Ruud; Visser, Gerard H. A.; Pennings, Jeroen L. A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. To expand the search for preeclampsia (PE) metabolomics biomarkers through the analysis of acylcarnitines in first-trimester maternal serum. Methods. This was a nested case-control study using serum from pregnant women, drawn between 8 and 14 weeks of gestational age. Metabolites were measured using an UPLC-MS/MS based method. Concentrations were compared between controls (n = 500) and early-onset- (EO-) PE (n = 68) or late-onset- (LO-) PE (n = 99) women. Metabolites with a false discovery rate <10% for both EO-PE and LO-PE were selected and added to prediction models based on maternal characteristics (MC), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and previously established biomarkers (PAPPA, PLGF, and taurine). Results. Twelve metabolites were significantly different between EO-PE women and controls, with effect levels between −18% and 29%. For LO-PE, 11 metabolites were significantly different with effect sizes between −8% and 24%. Nine metabolites were significantly different for both comparisons. The best prediction model for EO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, taurine, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.784). The best prediction model for LO-PE consisted of MC, MAP, PAPPA, PLGF, and stearoylcarnitine (AUC = 0.700). Conclusion. This study identified stearoylcarnitine as a novel metabolomics biomarker for EO-PE and LO-PE. Nevertheless, metabolomics-based assays for predicting PE are not yet suitable for clinical implementation. PMID:26146448

  7. Predicting Levels of Policy Advocacy Engagement Among Acute-Care Health Professionals.

    PubMed

    Jansson, Bruce S; Nyamathi, Adeline; Heidemann, Gretchen; Bird, Melissa; Ward, Cathy Rogers; Brown-Saltzman, Katherine; Duan, Lei; Kaplan, Charles

    2016-02-01

    This study aims to describe the factors that predict health professionals' engagement in policy advocacy. The researchers used a cross-sectional research design with a sample of 97 nurses, 94 social workers, and 104 medical residents from eight hospitals in Los Angeles. Bivariate correlations explored whether seven predictor scales were associated with health professionals' policy advocacy engagement and revealed that five of the eight factors were significantly associated with it (p < .05). The factors include patient advocacy engagement, eagerness, skills, tangible support, and organizational receptivity. Regression analysis examined whether the seven scales, when controlling for sociodemographic variables and hospital site, predicted levels of policy advocacy engagement. Results revealed that patient advocacy engagement (p < .001), eagerness (p < .001), skills (p < .01), tangible support (p < .01), perceived effectiveness (p < .05), and organizational receptivity (p < .05) all predicted health professional's policy advocacy engagement. Ethical commitment did not predict policy advocacy engagement. The model explained 36% of the variance in policy advocacy engagement. Limitations of the study and its implications for future research, practice, and policy are discussed. PMID:27151835

  8. Predicting the June 2013 European Flooding based on Precipitation, Soil Moisture and Sea Level Pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionita, Monica; Dima, Mihai; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick; Rimbu, Norel

    2015-04-01

    Over the past decades Europe has experienced heavy floods with major consequences for thousands of people and billions of Euros worth of damage. In particular, the summer 2013 flood in Central Europe showed how vulnerable modern society is to hydrological extremes and emphasizes once more the need for improved forecast methods of such extreme climatic events. Based on a multiple linear regression model, it is shown here that 55% of the June 2013 Elbe River extreme discharge could have been predicted using May precipitation, soil moisture and sea level pressure. Moreover, our model was able to predict more than 75% of the total Elbe River discharge for June 2013 (in terms of magnitude) by incorporating also the amount of precipitation recorded during the days prior the flood, but the predicted discharge for the June 2013 event was still underestimated by 25%. Given that all predictors used in the model are available at the end of each month, the forecast scheme can be used to predict extreme events and to provide early warnings for upcoming floods. The forecast methodology could be efficient for other rivers also, depending on their location and their climatic background.

  9. Prediction of waste leaching from solidified low-level radioactive waste

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tahboub, Alaeddin Borhan

    In 1983 a research program called Special Waste-Form Lysimeter Arid (SWLA) was initiated at Hanford Lysimeter testing facility near Richland, Washington to evaluate radionuclide release from solidified Low-Level Radioactive waste from underground burial facilities. The goal of this research is to help interpret experimental results from the Hanford site and formulate recommendations regarding source-term modeling for Low- Level waste forms. The specific objective is to test the diffusion source-term models based on ANS/ANSI 16.1 (ANS, 1986) laboratory leach test. The project uses the SWMS_2d model to predict the leaching of 137Cs, 90Sr, 60Co, and 3H radio nuclides from the waste form contained in Hanford lysimeters. Effective diffusion coefficients (De's) as measured by the above standard test were obtained from published literature for each nuclide. These De's together with the published soil properties and environmental conditions at the Hanford site are the model input. The source term modeling results are compared to the measured lysimeter data. Results showed that, the model is able to predict release of 3H. The model was not able to predict the release of 60Co from the waste form, which indicate that there are other processes rather than diffusion involved. The effective diffusion coefficient from ANS/ANSI 16.1 test can be used only for non reactive radionuclides like 3H (tritium).

  10. Predicting metabolic rate during level and uphill outdoor walking using a low-cost GPS receiver.

    PubMed

    de Müllenheim, Pierre-Yves; Dumond, Rémy; Gernigon, Marie; Mahé, Guillaume; Lavenu, Audrey; Bickert, Sandrine; Prioux, Jacques; Noury-Desvaux, Bénédicte; Le Faucheur, Alexis

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of using speed and grade data obtained from a low-cost global positioning system (GPS) receiver to estimate metabolic rate (MR) during level and uphill outdoor walking. Thirty young, healthy adults performed randomized outdoor walking for 6-min periods at 2.0, 3.5, and 5.0 km/h and on three different grades: 1) level walking, 2) uphill walking on a 3.7% mean grade, and 3) uphill walking on a 10.8% mean grade. The reference MR [metabolic equivalents (METs) and oxygen uptake (V̇o2)] values were obtained using a portable metabolic system. The speed and grade were obtained using a low-cost GPS receiver (1-Hz recording). The GPS grade (Δ altitude/distance walked) was calculated using both uncorrected GPS altitude data and GPS altitude data corrected with map projection software. The accuracy of predictions using reference speed and grade (actual[SPEED/GRADE]) data was high [R(2) = 0.85, root-mean-square error (RMSE) = 0.68 MET]. The accuracy decreased when GPS speed and uncorrected grade (GPS[UNCORRECTED]) data were used, although it remained substantial (R(2) = 0.66, RMSE = 1.00 MET). The accuracy was greatly improved when the GPS speed and corrected grade (GPS[CORRECTED]) data were used (R(2) = 0.82, RMSE = 0.79 MET). Published predictive equations for walking MR were also cross-validated using actual or GPS speed and grade data when appropriate. The prediction accuracy was very close when either actual[SPEED/GRADE] values or GPS[CORRECTED] values (for level and uphill combined) or GPS speed values (for level walking only) were used. These results offer promising research and clinical applications related to the assessment of energy expenditure during free-living walking. PMID:27402559

  11. Preoperative plasma leptin levels predict delirium in elderly patients after hip fracture surgery.

    PubMed

    Chen, Xue-Wu; Shi, Jun-Wu; Yang, Ping-Shan; Wu, Zhu-Qi

    2014-07-01

    Leptin is considered to be a modulator of the immune response. Hypoleptinemia increases the risk for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. The present study aimed to investigate the ability of plasma leptin level to predict delirium in elderly patients after hip fracture surgery. Postoperative delirium (pod) was evaluated using the Confusion Assessment Method. Prolonged postoperative delirium (ppod) was defined as delirium lasting more than 4 weeks. Plasma leptin levels of 186 elderly patients and 186 elderly controls were measured by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Plasma leptin level was substantially lower in patients than in controls (4.6±2.2ng/ml vs. 7.5±1.8ng/ml, P<0.001). It was identified as an independent predictor for pod [odds ratio, 0.385; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.286-0.517; P<0.001] and ppod (odds ratio, 0.283; 95% CI, 0.152-0.527; P<0.001) using a multivariate analysis, and had high area under receiver operating characteristic curve for pod [area under curve (AUC), 0.850; 95% CI, 0.790-0.898] and ppod (AUC, 0.890; 95% CI, 0.836-0.931). The predictive value of leptin was markedly bigger than that of age for pod (AUC, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.634-0.770; P=0.002) and ppod (AUC, 0.713; 95% CI, 0.642-0.777; P=0.019). In a combined logistic-regression model, leptin improved the AUC of age to 0.890 (95% CI, 0.836-0.931) (P<0.001) for pod and 0.910 (95% CI, 0.860-0.947) (P=0.005) for ppod. Thus, preoperative plasma leptin level may be a useful, complementary tool to predict delirium and also prolonged delirium in elderly patients after hip fracture surgery. PMID:24787655

  12. Repressive and defensive coping styles predict resting plasma endorphin levels in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Kline, J P; Bell, I; Schwartz, G E; Hau, V; Davis, T

    1998-11-01

    Jamner, L.D., Schwartz, G.E., 1986, Psychosom. Med. 48, 211-223, have proposed that repressive and defensive coping are associated with greater central endogenous opioid activity. They reasoned that high-defensive (HD) participants' attenuated distress, increased pain tolerances, attenuated somatic symptomatology, and accentuated reports of positive emotions are consistent with actions of centrally active opioid peptides. The present study assessed plasma beta-endorphin (END) levels, Marlowe Crowne Social Desirability Scale (MCSD), and Taylor Manifest Anxiety Scale (TMAS) scores in men (n = 6) and women (n = 20) between the ages of 59 and 79. Contrary to predictions, HD had lower plasma endorphin levels than did low-defensive (LD) participants. Raw MCSD scores correlated negatively with endorphin levels. Findings were significant for women only, which may have been due to the small sample of men. The results are discussed as they related to the hypothesis that defensiveness involves alteration of central opioid systems. PMID:9858058

  13. Ferritin levels in the cerebrospinal fluid predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes and are regulated by APOE.

    PubMed

    Ayton, Scott; Faux, Noel G; Bush, Ashley I

    2015-01-01

    Brain iron elevation is implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis, but the impact of iron on disease outcomes has not been previously explored in a longitudinal study. Ferritin is the major iron storage protein of the body; by using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of ferritin as an index, we explored whether brain iron status impacts longitudinal outcomes in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. We show that baseline CSF ferritin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance over 7 years in 91 cognitively normal, 144 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 67 AD subjects, and predicted MCI conversion to AD. Ferritin was strongly associated with CSF apolipoprotein E levels and was elevated by the Alzheimer's risk allele, APOE-ɛ4. These findings reveal that elevated brain iron adversely impacts on AD progression, and introduce brain iron elevation as a possible mechanism for APOE-ɛ4 being the major genetic risk factor for AD. PMID:25988319

  14. Ferritin levels in the cerebrospinal fluid predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes and are regulated by APOE

    PubMed Central

    Ayton, Scott; Faux, Noel G.; Bush, Ashley I.; Weiner, Michael W.; Aisen, Paul; Petersen, Ronald; Jack Jr., Clifford R.; Jagust, William; Trojanowki, John Q.; Toga, Arthur W.; Beckett, Laurel; Green, Robert C.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Morris, John; Shaw, Leslie M.; Khachaturian, Zaven; Sorensen, Greg; Kuller, Lew; Raichle, Marc; Paul, Steven; Davies, Peter; Fillit, Howard; Hefti, Franz; Holtzman, Davie; Marcel Mesulam, M.; Potter, William; Snyder, Peter; Schwartz, Adam; Montine, Tom; Thomas, Ronald G.; Donohue, Michael; Walter, Sarah; Gessert, Devon; Sather, Tamie; Jiminez, Gus; Harvey, Danielle; Bernstein, Matthew; Fox, Nick; Thompson, Paul; Schuff, Norbert; Borowski, Bret; Gunter, Jeff; Senjem, Matt; Vemuri, Prashanthi; Jones, David; Kantarci, Kejal; Ward, Chad; Koeppe, Robert A.; Foster, Norm; Reiman, Eric M.; Chen, Kewei; Mathis, Chet; Landau, Susan; Cairns, Nigel J.; Householder, Erin; Taylor-Reinwald, Lisa; Lee, Virginia; Korecka, Magdalena; Figurski, Michal; Crawford, Karen; Neu, Scott; Foroud, Tatiana M.; Potkin, Steven; Shen, Li; Faber, Kelley; Kim, Sungeun; Nho, Kwangsik; Thal, Leon; Buckholtz, Neil; Albert, Marylyn; Frank, Richard; Hsiao, John; Kaye, Jeffrey; Quinn, Joseph; Lind, Betty; Carter, Raina; Dolen, Sara; Schneider, Lon S.; Pawluczyk, Sonia; Beccera, Mauricio; Teodoro, Liberty; Spann, Bryan M.; Brewer, James; Vanderswag, Helen; Fleisher, Adam; Heidebrink, Judith L.; Lord, Joanne L.; Mason, Sara S.; Albers, Colleen S.; Knopman, David; Johnson, Kris; Doody, Rachelle S.; Villanueva-Meyer, Javier; Chowdhury, Munir; Rountree, Susan; Dang, Mimi; Stern, Yaakov; Honig, Lawrence S.; Bell, Karen L.; Ances, Beau; Carroll, Maria; Leon, Sue; Mintun, Mark A.; Schneider, Stacy; Oliver, Angela; Marson, Daniel; Griffith, Randall; Clark, David; Geldmacher, David; Brockington, John; Roberson, Erik; Grossman, Hillel; Mitsis, Effie; deToledo-Morrell, Leyla; Shah, Raj C.; Duara, Ranjan; Varon, Daniel; Greig, Maria T.; Roberts, Peggy; Albert, Marilyn; Onyike, Chiadi; D'Agostino II, Daniel; Kielb, Stephanie; Galvin, James E.; Cerbone, Brittany; Michel, Christina A.; Rusinek, Henry; de Leon, Mony J; Glodzik, Lidia; De Santi, Susan; Murali Doraiswamy, P.; Petrella, Jeffrey R.; Wong, Terence Z.; Arnold, Steven E.; Karlawish, Jason H.; Wolk, David; Smith, Charles D.; Jicha, Greg; Hardy, Peter; Sinha, Partha; Oates, Elizabeth; Conrad, Gary; Lopez, Oscar L.; Oakley, MaryAnn; Simpson, Donna M.; Porsteinsson, Anton P.; Goldstein, Bonnie S.; Martin, Kim; Makino, Kelly M.; Saleem Ismail, M.; Brand, Connie; Mulnard, Ruth A.; Thai, Gaby; Mc-Adams-Ortiz, Catherine; Womack, Kyle; Mathews, Dana; Quiceno, Mary; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; King, Richard; Weiner, Myron; Martin-Cook, Kristen; DeVous, Michael; Levey, Allan I.; Lah, James J.; Cellar, Janet S.; Burns, Jeffrey M.; Anderson, Heather S.; Swerdlow, Russell H.; Apostolova, Liana; Tingus, Kathleen; Woo, Ellen; Silverman, Daniel H.S.; Lu, Po H.; Bartzokis, George; Graff-Radford, Neill R; Parfitt, Francine; Kendall, Tracy; Johnson, Heather; Farlow, Martin R.; Hake, Ann Marie; Matthews, Brandy R.; Herring, Scott; Hunt, Cynthia; van Dyck, Christopher H.; Carson, Richard E.; MacAvoy, Martha G.; Chertkow, Howard; Bergman, Howard; Hosein, Chris; Black, Sandra; Stefanovic, Bojana; Caldwell, Curtis; Robin Hsiung, Ging-Yuek; Feldman, Howard; Mudge, Benita; Assaly, Michele; Kertesz, Andrew; Rogers, John; Bernick, Charles; Munic, Donna; Kerwin, Diana; Mesulam, Marek-Marsel; Lipowski, Kristine; Wu, Chuang-Kuo; Johnson, Nancy; Sadowsky, Carl; Martinez, Walter; Villena, Teresa; Scott Turner, Raymond; Johnson, Kathleen; Reynolds, Brigid; Sperling, Reisa A.; Johnson, Keith A.; Marshall, Gad; Frey, Meghan; Lane, Barton; Rosen, Allyson; Tinklenberg, Jared; Sabbagh, Marwan N.; Belden, Christine M.; Jacobson, Sandra A.; Sirrel, Sherye A.; Kowall, Neil; Killiany, Ronald; Budson, Andrew E.; Norbash, Alexander; Johnson, Patricia Lynn; Allard, Joanne; Lerner, Alan; Ogrocki, Paula; Hudson, Leon; Fletcher, Evan; Carmichael, Owen; Olichney, John; DeCarli, Charles; Kittur, Smita; Borrie, Michael; Lee, T-Y; Bartha, Rob; Johnson, Sterling; Asthana, Sanjay; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Potkin, Steven G.; Preda, Adrian; Nguyen, Dana; Tariot, Pierre; Reeder, Stephanie; Bates, Vernice; Capote, Horacio; Rainka, Michelle; Scharre, Douglas W.; Kataki, Maria; Adeli, Anahita; Zimmerman, Earl A.; Celmins, Dzintra; Brown, Alice D.; Pearlson, Godfrey D.; Blank, Karen; Anderson, Karen; Santulli, Robert B.; Kitzmiller, Tamar J.; Schwartz, Eben S.; Sink, Kaycee M.; Williamson, Jeff D.; Garg, Pradeep; Watkins, Franklin; Ott, Brian R.; Querfurth, Henry; Tremont, Geoffrey; Salloway, Stephen; Malloy, Paul; Correia, Stephen; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Mintzer, Jacobo; Spicer, Kenneth; Bachman, David; Finger, Elizabether; Pasternak, Stephen; Rachinsky, Irina; Drost, Dick; Pomara, Nunzio; Hernando, Raymundo; Sarrael, Antero; Schultz, Susan K.; Boles Ponto, Laura L.; Shim, Hyungsub; Elizabeth Smith, Karen; Relkin, Norman; Chaing, Gloria; Raudin, Lisa; Smith, Amanda; Fargher, Kristin; Ashok Raj, Balebail; Neylan, Thomas; Grafman, Jordan; Davis, Melissa; Morrison, Rosemary; Hayes, Jacqueline; Finley, Shannon; Friedl, Karl; Fleischman, Debra; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; James, Olga; Massoglia, Dino; Jay Fruehling, J.; Harding, Sandra; Peskind, Elaine R.; Petrie, Eric C.; Li, Gail; Yesavage, Jerome A.; Taylor, Joy L.; Furst, Ansgar J.

    2015-01-01

    Brain iron elevation is implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis, but the impact of iron on disease outcomes has not been previously explored in a longitudinal study. Ferritin is the major iron storage protein of the body; by using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of ferritin as an index, we explored whether brain iron status impacts longitudinal outcomes in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. We show that baseline CSF ferritin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance over 7 years in 91 cognitively normal, 144 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 67 AD subjects, and predicted MCI conversion to AD. Ferritin was strongly associated with CSF apolipoprotein E levels and was elevated by the Alzheimer's risk allele, APOE-ɛ4. These findings reveal that elevated brain iron adversely impacts on AD progression, and introduce brain iron elevation as a possible mechanism for APOE-ɛ4 being the major genetic risk factor for AD. PMID:25988319

  15. Neural network application for radionuclide modelling and prediction of radioactivity levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch, Myron Corbett, Jr.

    Existing applications of artificial neural networks in physics research and development have been analyzed as a basis for proposing new opportunities using that AI technology for data analysis in physics. A taxonomy was developed, based on an extensive literature search, for physics problems where neural network applications have been useful. Then, a particular use of neural networks was carried out to study ways to predict normal concentrations of radioactivity measured at monitoring stations in different geographic locations. The purpose of the data collection and analysis was to establish background levels that would serve as bases for detecting unusual levels of radioactivity, for example due to nuclear weapons testing, in these physical environments. Useful data sets were developed in this area and a process was discovered for modeling the background levels.

  16. Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-12-01

    This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

  17. The challenge of predicting karst water resources in a changing world (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, A.

    2013-12-01

    Karst regions represent a large part of global continental area providing drinking water to almost a quarter of the world population. Climate simulations predict a strong increase in temperature and a decrease of precipitation in many karst regions in the world (see figure below). Despite of this knowledge, there are only few studies that address the impact of climate or change on karst water resources. This presentation will provide an overview about different approaches for the simulation of karst water resources, comparing their data requirements and process representation, and elaborating reasons for their limited applicability. A set of case studies will be used to show the benefits of new modeling approaches that include hydrochemical observations, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate and improve the prediction of karst water resources. Furthermore, the impact of uncertain temperature and precipitation predictions of climate simulation models on the prediction of karst water resources will be elaborated by another example and alternative approaches will be discussed. The presentation will end with an outlook about the application of karst simulation models on larger scales where no discharge and groundwater measurements will be presented. Location of carbonate rock outcrops in Europe [Williams and Ford, Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 2006, modified] compared to expected mean change of temperature and precipitation in North America (a,b) and Europe (c,d) from 1961-1990 to 2081-2090, derived from 20 general circulation models [IPCC, 2007].

  18. Predicting impacts of increased CO₂ and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L

    2012-07-15

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin. PMID:22641243

  19. Predicting Impacts of Increased CO2 and Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Water Quality in the Semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Gallant, Alisa L.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO3–N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO2, precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO2 concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO3–N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO3–N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

  20. Prediction of physical properties of water under extremely supercritical conditions: a molecular dynamics study.

    PubMed

    Sakuma, Hiroshi; Ichiki, Masahiro; Kawamura, Katsuyuki; Fuji-ta, Kiyoshi

    2013-04-01

    The physical properties of water under a wide range of pressure and temperature conditions are important in fundamental physics, chemistry, and geoscience. Molecular simulations are useful for predicting and understanding the physical properties of water at phases extremely different from ambient conditions. In this study, we developed a new five-site flexible induced point charge model to predict the density, static dielectric constant, and transport properties of water in the extremely supercritical phase at high temperatures and pressures of up to 2000 K and 2000 MPa. The model satisfactorily reproduced the density, radial distribution function, static dielectric constant, reorientation time, and self-diffusion coefficients of water above the critical points. We also developed a database of the static dielectric constant, which is useful for discussing the electrical conductivity of aqueous fluids in the earth's crust and mantle. PMID:23574243

  1. Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

    2014-12-01

    The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup

  2. Forecasting future water levels to aid in flash flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Marchandise, A.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Flash floods are typically triggered by local intense rainfall in small catchments with short response times. The work presented explores the use of ensemble numerical weather prediction products coupled with a simplified hydrological model to forecast such floods, with up to 2 days lead time, when water level observations can be regularly assimilated. The techniques outlined are presented with reference to a case study, the Gardon d'Anduze basin in France. A Data Based Mechanistic time series model of the rainfall run-off dynamics of the catchment is constructed. The model formulated to address two common sources of observational errors, shifting baselines in the water level observation and incorrect characterisation of the magnitude of the precipitation. It is cast in a state space form shown to be an effective forecaster when driven by observed precipitation data. Substitution of ensemble precipitation forecasts the observed data is used to generate forecasts with with longer lead times. A simple adaptation of the hydrological model is used to represent the uncertainty in the forecasts that may result from incorrect characterisation of the magnitude of the forecast precipitation. Observed water levels are assimilated condition the model forecasts. They can be used both to condition the initial states to the hydrological model prior to being run with the ensemble NWP input but also to condition the hydrological forecasts generated by running the ensemble NWP inputs after they have been generated. The balance between using the hydrological forecasts of most recent NWP ensemble, or those of an older generated by an older ensemble which have undergone more data assimilation is considered.

  3. Does ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation at the site-level conform to regional-scale predictions?.

    PubMed

    Wilcox, Kevin R; Blair, John M; Smith, Melinda D; Knapp, Alan K

    2016-03-01

    Central to understanding global C cycle dynamics is the functional relationship between precipitation and net primary production (NPP). At large spatial (regional) scales, the responsiveness of aboveground NPP (ANPP) to interannual variation in annual precipitation (AP; ANPPsens) is inversely related to site-level ANPP, coinciding with turnover of plant communities along precipitation gradients. Within ecosystems experiencing chronic alterations in water availability, plant community change will also occur with unknown consequences for ANPPsens. To examine the role plant community shifts may play in determining alterations in site-level ANPPPsens, we experimentally increased precipitation by approximately 35% for two decades in a native Central U.S. grassland. Consistent with regional models, ANPPsens decreased initially as water availability and ANPP increased. However, ANPPsens shifted back to ambient levels when mesic species increased in abundance in the plant community. Similarly, in grassland sites with distinct mesic and xeric plant communities and corresponding 50% differences in ANPP, ANPPsens did not differ over almost three decades. We conclude that responses in ANPPsens to chronic alterations in water availability within an ecosystem may not conform to regional AP-ANPP patterns, despite expected changes in ANPP and plant communities. The result is unanticipated functional resistance to climate change at the site scale. PMID:27197383

  4. Temporal and Spatial prediction of groundwater levels using Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy logic and Kriging interpolation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapoglou, Evdokia; Karatzas, George P.; Trichakis, Ioannis C.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with kriging interpolation method, in order to simulate the hydraulic head both spatially and temporally. Initially, ANNs are used for the temporal simulation of the hydraulic head change. The results of the most appropriate ANNs, determined through a fuzzy logic system, are used as an input for the kriging algorithm where the spatial simulation is conducted. The proposed algorithm is tested in an area located across Isar River in Bayern, Germany and covers an area of approximately 7800 km2. The available data extend to a time period from 1/11/2008 to 31/10/2012 (1460 days) and include the hydraulic head at 64 wells, temperature and rainfall at 7 weather stations and surface water elevation at 5 monitoring stations. One feedforward ANN was trained for each of the 64 wells, where hydraulic head data are available, using a backpropagation algorithm. The most appropriate input parameters for each wells' ANN are determined considering their proximity to the measuring station, as well as their statistical characteristics. For the rainfall, the data for two consecutive time lags for best correlated weather station, as well as a third and fourth input from the second best correlated weather station, are used as an input. The surface water monitoring stations with the three best correlations for each well are also used in every case. Finally, the temperature for the best correlated weather station is used. Two different architectures are considered and the one with the best results is used henceforward. The output of the ANNs corresponds to the hydraulic head change per time step. These predictions are used in the kriging interpolation algorithm. However, not all 64 simulated values should be used. The appropriate neighborhood for each prediction point is constructed based not only on the distance between known and prediction points, but also on the training and testing error of

  5. Prediction of sea water intrusion for mining activity in close precincts of sea shore.

    PubMed

    Singh, Awanindra Pratap; Gupta, Prem Kumar; Khandelwal, Manoj

    2013-01-01

    The mining lease area of Surka [District Bhavnagar, Gujarat (India)] is located within 6-12 km horizontal distance of sea shore of Gulf of Cambay. Whenever, there will be onset of lignite extraction, there will be always a threat of sea water intrusion into the mining lease area due to its close proximity to seashore. This article describes the prediction of sea water intrusion into the lease area of whole mining block using Ghyben-Herzberg relation between fresh and saline water, Remote Sensing, Ground Truth verification, Electrical Resistivity Survey and groundwater table monitored during the year 2004. As per the Ghyben-Herzberg relation, results show that there will not be sea water intrusion. If there is excess pumping of water then also the basement rock below the lignite seam will put hindrance to any possible upconing of saline water interface. PMID:24083098

  6. Analysis on the characteristics of parameters in groundwater table fluctuation model for predicting groundwater levels in Hancheon watershed, South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Nam Won; Kim, Youn Jung; Chung, Il-Moon; Lee, Jeongwoo

    2014-05-01

    A novel application of groundwater table fluctuation method is suggested to predict groundwater level by means of groundwater table variation due to recharge and discharge under unsteady condition. This model analyzes transient groundwater characteristics by using reaction factor related with groundwater flow and specific yield related with recharge. The groundwater level varies according to the characteristics and composite materials of aquifer. In this study, specific yield and reaction factor which are the major two hydrogeological parameters in the WTF(Water Table Fluctuation) method were estimated and analyzed their spatial characteristics. 8 groundwater level stations which have enough measuring period and high correlation with rainfall in the Hancheon watershed were used. The results showed that specific yield was randomly distributed and reaction factor showed inverse trend with altitude. If the enough data were collected, reaction factor according to altitude in ungauged points could be estimated by using these parameter characteristics. keywords: Key words : Groundwater level, parameters, reaction factor, specific yield Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Regional Innovative Technology Project 2B from KICTTEP.

  7. A New Approach to Reconstruct Ancient Bottom Water Oxygen Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rathburn, A. E.; Willingham, J.; Corliss, B. H.; Burkett, A. M.; Ziebis, W.

    2014-12-01

    Oxygen availability controls many biological and geochemical processes, and serves as an important indicator of paleoceanographic characteristics. Recent work has demonstrated a direct relationship between oxygen acquisition and pores on benthic foraminiferal tests. Epifaunal foraminifera (living near or above the sediment-water interface) are directly exposed to bottom water, and can occur in abundance in a wide range of seafloor environments. In this study, a novel approach using ArcGIS and image analysis techniques was used to determine the percentage of test chamber surface area covered by pores in living and recently living (Rose Bengal stained) epifaunal taxa (Cibicides, Cibicidoides and Planulina). Analyses of Scanning Electron Microscope images of 97 specimens collected from 20 deep-sea locations having different bottom water oxygen concentrations (0.04 to 6.20 ml/L) revealed a robust (R2= 0.729; p < 0.001), negative relationship between pore surface area on test chambers and ambient bottom water oxygen concentration. The resulting calibration curve serves as new, quantitative proxy to assess bottom water oxygen of ancient oceans.

  8. [Fluoride levels in commercial dentifrices and drinking water in Algeria].

    PubMed

    Merghache, D; Bellout, B; Merghache, S; Boucherit-Atmani, Z

    2011-12-01

    More and more scientific evidence show that fluorides have a cariostatic action to the plaque-saliva-tooth interface during cariogenous dissolution. Fluorides slow down demineralization and enhance remineralization. Their action is optimal, in the oral environment, when used at low concentrations on a continuous basis. The use of the fluorinated toothpastes during brushing of the teeth is a simple, rational method of daily topics application of fluorine, largely used in the context of prevention of dental caries and which can even be regarded as a public health measure. The water ingestion fluorinated represents itself an excellent average of the local application of fluorine. Our work concerned a quantitative study of fluorine in toothpaste and drinking water, and comparative between the local product and the imported one for the toothpastes, and the mineral water and public supply. The standard method of fluorine based on the potentiometry and distillation has shown that 50% of the tested toothpastes contain adequate concentration so that a product of dental care fights against decay. The Tlemcen tap water contains acceptable fluorine content, but the mineral water, with an excessive contribution, can cause fluorose. Of this, we can deduce that a topical application of a suitable quantity of fluorine on a daily basis in accordance with the precautions is not only the prevention of dental caries, but also to stabilize it if it already exists. PMID:22457989

  9. Analysis of water levels in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bright, D.J.; Watkins, S.A.; Lisle, B.A.

    2001-01-01

    Analysis of water levels in 21 wells in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site, provides information on the accuracy of hydraulic-head calculations, temporal water-level trends, and potential causes of water-level fluctuations. Accurate hydraulic heads are particularly important in Frenchman Flat where the hydraulic gradients are relatively flat (less than 1 foot per mile) in the alluvial aquifer. Temporal water-level trends with magnitudes near or exceeding the regional hydraulic gradient may have a substantial effect on ground-water flow directions. Water-level measurements can be adjusted for the effects of barometric pressure, formation water density (from water-temperature measurements), borehole deviation, and land-surface altitude in selected wells in the Frenchman Flat area. Water levels in one well were adjusted for the effect of density; this adjustment was significantly greater (about 17 feet) than the adjustment of water levels for barometric pressure, borehole deviation, or land-surface altitude (less than about 4 feet). Water-level measurements from five wells exhibited trends that were statistically and hydrologically significant. Statistically significant water-level trends were observed for three wells completed in the alluvial aquifer (WW-5a, UE-5n, and PW-3), for one well completed in the carbonate aquifer (SM-23), and for one well completed in the quartzite confining unit (Army-6a). Potential causes of water-level fluctuations in wells in the Frenchman Flat area include changes in atmospheric conditions (precipitation and barometric pressure), Earth tides, seismic activity, past underground nuclear testing, and nearby pumping. Periodic water-level measurements in some wells completed in the carbonate aquifer indicate cyclic-type water-level fluctuations that generally correlate with longer term changes (more than 5 years) in precipitation. Ground-water pumping fromthe alluvial aquifer at well WW-5c and pumping and discharge from well RNM-2s

  10. Analysis of water levels in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect

    Bright, D.J.; Watkins, S.A.; Lisle, B.A.

    2001-04-18

    Analysis of water levels in 21 wells in the Frenchman Flat area, Nevada Test Site, provides information on the accuracy of hydraulic-head calculations, temporal water-level trends, and potential causes of water-level fluctuations. Accurate hydraulic heads are particularly important in Frenchman Flat where the hydraulic gradients are relatively flat (less than 1 foot per mile) in the alluvial aquifer. Temporal water-level trends with magnitudes near or exceeding the regional hydraulic gradient may have a substantial effect on ground-water flow directions. Water-level measurements can be adjusted for the effects of barometric pressure, formation water density (from water-temperature measurements), borehole deviation, and land-surface altitude in selected wells in the Frenchman Flat area. Water levels in one well were adjusted for the effect of density; this adjustment was significantly greater (about 17 feet) than the adjustment of water levels for barometric pressure, borehole deviation, or land-surface altitude (less than about 4 feet). Water-level measurements from five wells exhibited trends that were statistically and hydrologically significant. Statistically significant water-level trends were observed for three wells completed in the alluvial aquifer (WW-5a, UE-5n, and PW-3), for one well completed in the carbonate aquifer (SM-23), and for one well completed in the quartzite confining unit (Army-6a). Potential causes of water-level fluctuations in wells in the Frenchman Flat area include changes in atmospheric conditions (precipitation and barometric pressure), Earth tides, seismic activity, past underground nuclear testing, and nearby pumping. Periodic water-level measurements in some wells completed in the carbonate aquifer indicate cyclic-type water-level fluctuations that generally correlate with longer term changes (more than 5 years) in precipitation. Ground-water pumping from the alluvial aquifer at well WW-5c and pumping and discharge from well RNM- 2s

  11. Seasonal variation of water level, water and soil temperature, chemistry, and stable isotopes in hyporheic zone of Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, W. H.; Lee, J. Y.

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of study was to evaluate interaction between groundwater and stream water in hyporheic zone using water level, water temperature, soil temperature, chemistry, and stable isotopes. We installed seven piezometers (IYHW1 to 7) in the streambed that across stream in every 10 m and in depth of 0.85 to 1.54 m, a device that measure stage level nearby IYHW1, and devices that measure soil temperature in every 10 cm down to 50 cm nearby each piezometer was installed. We monitored water level and water temperature every hour from automatic transducers at the piezometers and the stage level, and soil temperatures were monitored every two hours. We took samples from the hyporheic water, stream water, and nearby groundwater to analysis chemical and isotopic compositions. The water level difference between stream water and hyporheic waters indicated that groundwater was downwelling in wet season and upwelling in dry season. The groundwater temperature remained steady in different seasons, but the stream water represented a frequent fluctuation with large amplitude. The hyporheic waters and soil temperature represented intermediate variation characteristics. The chemical compositions were not able to indicate in interaction of groundwater and stream water because no distinctive difference in seasonal variation in waters. The quantity of isotopic compositions of oxygen and hydrogen determined from using mixing ratio indicated that downwelling in wet season and upwelling in dry season. This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (NRF-2011-0007232).

  12. Simplified combustion noise theory yielding a prediction of fluctuating pressure level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, R. G.

    1984-01-01

    The first order equations for the conservation of mass and momentum in differential form are combined for an ideal gas to yield a single second order partial differential equation in one dimension and time. Small perturbation analysis is applied. A Fourier transformation is performed that results in a second order, constant coefficient, nonhomogeneous equation. The driving function is taken to be the source of combustion noise. A simplified model describing the energy addition via the combustion process gives the required source information for substitution in the driving function. This enables the particular integral solution of the nonhomogeneous equation to be found. This solution multiplied by the acoustic pressure efficiency predicts the acoustic pressure spectrum measured in turbine engine combustors. The prediction was compared with the overall sound pressure levels measured in a CF6-50 turbofan engine combustor and found to be in excellent agreement.

  13. Computational methodology to predict satellite system-level effects from impacts of untrackable space debris

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welty, N.; Rudolph, M.; Schäfer, F.; Apeldoorn, J.; Janovsky, R.

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents a computational methodology to predict the satellite system-level effects resulting from impacts of untrackable space debris particles. This approach seeks to improve on traditional risk assessment practices by looking beyond the structural penetration of the satellite and predicting the physical damage to internal components and the associated functional impairment caused by untrackable debris impacts. The proposed method combines a debris flux model with the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert ballistic limit equation (BLE), which accounts for the inherent shielding of components positioned behind the spacecraft structure wall. Individual debris particle impact trajectories and component shadowing effects are considered and the failure probabilities of individual satellite components as a function of mission time are calculated. These results are correlated to expected functional impairment using a Boolean logic model of the system functional architecture considering the functional dependencies and redundancies within the system.

  14. A method for predicting the noise levels of coannular jets with inverted velocity profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, J. W.

    1979-01-01

    A coannular jet was equated with a single stream equivalent jet with the same mass flow, energy, and thrust. The acoustic characteristics of the coannular jet were then related to the acoustic characteristics of the single jet. Forward flight effects were included by incorporating a forward exponent, a Doppler amplification factor, and a Strouhal frequency shift. Model test data, including 48 static cases and 22 wind tunnel cases, were used to evaluate the prediction method. For the static cases and the low forward velocity wind tunnel cases, the spectral mean square pressure correlation coefficients were generally greater than 90 percent, and the spectral sound pressure level standard deviation were generally less than 3 decibels. The correlation coefficient and the standard deviation were not affected by changes in equivalent jet velocity. Limitations of the prediction method are also presented.

  15. Predictive Significance of Serum Level of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor in Gastric Cancer Patients.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lu; Chang, Yanli; Xu, Jianjun; Zhang, Qingyun

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to evaluate serum VEGF expression in gastric cancer patients and investigate its relationship with clinicopathological parameters. We also examined the serum VEGF levels in GC patients having received surgery or chemotherapy treatment to assess its predictive and prognostic value as a biomarker. We enrolled 154 GC patients having not received neoadjuvant treatment and 100 healthy controls. In the treatment groups, 13 surgery patients and 15 chemotherapy patients were investigated. 42 chemotherapy patients with different chemotherapy efficacy were recruited as well. The serum VEGF was examined by ELISA. Serum VEGF level was remarkably upregulated in GC group compared with healthy group (p < 0.001). The serum VEGF level of GC group was significantly correlated with tumor cells differentiation degree, clinical stages, tumor infiltration depth, lymph node metastasis, and tumor size. The serum VEGF level of the 1 to 3 days after operation group was much lower than that of the preoperative group (p < 0.001) and the 7 days after operation group (p < 0.001). By contrast, serum VEGF level was decreased significantly after chemotherapy (p = 0.001). Importantly, serum VEGF level in PD+SD group was significantly higher compared to the PR+CR group (p = 0.011). Therefore, serum VEGF was a valuable biomarker in clinically monitoring the condition of GC patients. PMID:27597973

  16. Predictive Significance of Serum Level of Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor in Gastric Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Lu; Chang, Yanli; Xu, Jianjun

    2016-01-01

    The study aims to evaluate serum VEGF expression in gastric cancer patients and investigate its relationship with clinicopathological parameters. We also examined the serum VEGF levels in GC patients having received surgery or chemotherapy treatment to assess its predictive and prognostic value as a biomarker. We enrolled 154 GC patients having not received neoadjuvant treatment and 100 healthy controls. In the treatment groups, 13 surgery patients and 15 chemotherapy patients were investigated. 42 chemotherapy patients with different chemotherapy efficacy were recruited as well. The serum VEGF was examined by ELISA. Serum VEGF level was remarkably upregulated in GC group compared with healthy group (p < 0.001). The serum VEGF level of GC group was significantly correlated with tumor cells differentiation degree, clinical stages, tumor infiltration depth, lymph node metastasis, and tumor size. The serum VEGF level of the 1 to 3 days after operation group was much lower than that of the preoperative group (p < 0.001) and the 7 days after operation group (p < 0.001). By contrast, serum VEGF level was decreased significantly after chemotherapy (p = 0.001). Importantly, serum VEGF level in PD+SD group was significantly higher compared to the PR+CR group (p = 0.011). Therefore, serum VEGF was a valuable biomarker in clinically monitoring the condition of GC patients. PMID:27597973

  17. Utility of C-Reactive Protein Levels for Early Prediction of Dengue Severity in Adults

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chien-Chih; Lee, Ing-Kit; Liu, Jien-Wei; Huang, Shi-Yu; Wang, Lin

    2015-01-01

    Dengue has broad clinical presentation with unpredictable clinical evolution and outcome. We aimed to evaluate the utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) levels for distinguishing between mild and severe cases in the early phase of the dengue illness. We retrospectively evaluated adults with dengue from 2006 to 2014, according to 1997 and 2009 World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for severity. Of 191 included patients, 32.9% had nonshock dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), 3.1% dengue shock syndrome (DSS), and 7.9% severe dengue. The risk of DHF/DSS and severe dengue is significantly related to the increasing levels of CRP. Of 191 patients, 97 had CRP levels measured during the febrile (days 1–3); 85 during the critical (days 4–6); and 9 during the convalescent (days 7–10) illness phases. During the febrile phase, there was significant higher CRP level for DSS versus DF/nonshock DHF and severe dengue versus nonsevere dengue, with CRP cutoff level 30.1 mg/L (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 0.938; 100% sensitivity, 76.3% specificity) and 24.2 mg/L (AUC, 0.717; 70% sensitivity, 71.3% specificity), respectively. Our study highlights the utility of the CRP levels in early prediction of DSS and severe dengue in adult patients. PMID:26247033

  18. Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Predicted Impacts on New Hampshire's Hampton-Seabrook Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haile, R.; Hale, S. R.; Rock, B. N.

    2008-12-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Environmental Protection Agency, and the Union of Concerned Scientist, coastal areas could experience a rise in sea level from 0.3m (conservative) to 6m (extreme). Due in part to global warming, over the last 100 years mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea level has risen approximately 0.1m more than the average global rise. GIS models illustrating future sea level rise (SLR) projections were generated to assess the potential impact on beaches and estuaries of Hampton and Seabrook, New Hampshire (NH). Limited, but important, tidal wetlands are particularly at risk from rising sea levels. A raster unsupervised landcover classification and a Digital Elevation Model of the southeastern NH coastal region were overlain in ARC/GIS v. 9.0. Sea level rise predictions greater than 1.2m will result in the inundation of greater than 50 percent of the emergent area of the Hampton/Seabrook estuary and urban development fringing the estuary will be prone to greater flooding from storm surges and high tides. An approximate 6m rise in sea level will inundate greater than 95 percent of the Hampton-Seabrook tidal marsh and greater than 95 percent of New Hampshire's existing sand dunes.

  19. STATISTICAL PROCEDURES FOR DETERMINATION AND VERIFICATION OF MINIMUM REPORTING LEVELS FOR DRINKING WATER METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water (OGWDW) has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which fu...

  20. 26. JUNCTION STRUCTURE. WATER LEVEL 1190FT, INNER RING MIXER OF ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    26. JUNCTION STRUCTURE. WATER LEVEL 1190FT, INNER RING MIXER OF STATE AND COLORADO, WATER EXITS THROUGH OUTER RING. - F. E. Weymouth Filtration Plant, 700 North Moreno Avenue, La Verne, Los Angeles County, CA

  1. Effects of lower trophic level biomass and water temperature on fish communities: A modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guiet, Jérôme; Aumont, Olivier; Poggiale, Jean-Christophe; Maury, Olivier

    2016-08-01

    Physical and biogeochemical changes of the oceans have complex influences on fish communities. Variations of resource and temperature affect metabolic rates at the individual level, biomass fluxes at the species level, and trophic structure as well as diversity at the community level. We use a Dynamic Energy Budget-, trait-based model of the consumers' community size-spectrum to assess the effects of lower trophic level biomass and water temperature on communities at steady state. First, we look at the stressors separately in idealized simulations, varying one while the second remains constant. A multi-domain response is observed. Linked to the number of trophic levels sustained in the consumers' community, the regimes highlighted present similar properties when lower trophic level biomass is increased or temperature decreased. These trophic-length domains correspond to different efficiencies of the transfer of biomass from small to large individuals. They are characterized by different sensitivities of fish communities to environmental changes. Moreover, differences in the scaling of individuals' metabolism and prey assimilation with temperature lead to a shrinking of fish communities with warming. In a second step, we look at the impact of simultaneous variations of stressors along a mean latitudinal gradient of lower trophic level biomass and temperature. The model explains known observed features of global marine ecosystems such as the fact that larger species compose fish communities when latitude increases. The structure, diversity and metabolic properties of fish communities obtained with the model at different latitudes are interpreted in light of the different trophic-length domains characterized in the idealized experiments. From the equator to the poles, the structure of consumers' communities is predicted to be heterogeneous, with variable sensitivities to environmental changes.

  2. Stochastic modeling of Lake Van water level time series with jumps and multiple trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aksoy, H.; Unal, N. E.; Eris, E.; Yuce, M. I.

    2013-06-01

    In the 1990s, water level in the closed-basin Lake Van located in the Eastern Anatolia, Turkey, has risen up about 2 m. Analysis of the hydrometeorological data shows that change in the water level is related to the water budget of the lake. In this study, stochastic models are proposed for simulating monthly water level data. Two models considering mono- and multiple-trend time series are developed. The models are derived after removal of trend and periodicity in the dataset. Trend observed in the lake water level time series is fitted by mono- and multiple-trend lines. In the so-called mono-trend model, the time series is treated as a whole under the hypothesis that the lake water level has an increasing trend. In the second model (so-called multiple-trend), the time series is divided into a number of segments to each a linear trend can be fitted separately. Application on the lake water level data shows that four segments, each fitted with a trend line, are meaningful. Both the mono- and multiple-trend models are used for simulation of synthetic lake water level time series under the hypothesis that the observed mono- and multiple-trend structure of the lake water level persist during the simulation period. The multiple-trend model is found better for planning the future infrastructural projects in surrounding areas of the lake as it generates higher maxima for the simulated lake water level.

  3. Nitrates in drinking water and methemoglobin levels in pregnancy: a longitudinal study

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Private water systems are more likely to have nitrate levels above the maximum contaminant level (MCL). Pregnant women are considered vulnerable to the effects of exposure to high levels of nitrates in drinking water due to their altered physiological states. The level of methemoglobin in the blood is the biomarker often used in research for assessing exposure to nitrates. The objective of this study was to assess methemoglobin levels and examine how various factors affected methemoglobin levels during pregnancy. We also examined whether differences in water use practices existed among pregnant women based on household drinking water source of private vs. public supply. Methods A longitudinal study of 357 pregnant women was conducted. Longitudinal regression models were used to examine changes and predictors of the change in methemoglobin levels over the period of gestation. Results Pregnant women showed a decrease in methemoglobin levels with increasing gestation although <1% had levels above the physiologic normal of 2% methemoglobin, regardless of the source of their drinking water. The multivariable analyses did not show a statistically significant association between methemoglobin levels and the estimated nitrate intake from tap water among pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation (β = 0.046, p = 0.986). Four women had tap water nitrate levels above the MCL of 10 mg/L. At enrollment, a greater proportion of women who reported using water treatment devices were private wells users (66%) compared to public system users (46%) (p < 0.0001). Also, a greater proportion of private well users (27%) compared to public system users (13%) were us