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Sample records for water level predictions

  1. A neural network model for predicting aquifer water level elevations.

    PubMed

    Coppola, Emery A; Rana, Anthony J; Poulton, Mary M; Szidarovszky, Ferenc; Uhl, Vincent W

    2005-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed for accurately predicting potentiometric surface elevations (monitoring well water level elevations) in a semiconfined glacial sand and gravel aquifer under variable state, pumping extraction, and climate conditions. ANNs "learn" the system behavior of interest by processing representative data patterns through a mathematical structure analogous to the human brain. In this study, the ANNs used the initial water level measurements, production well extractions, and climate conditions to predict the final water level elevations 30 d into the future at two monitoring wells. A sensitivity analysis was conducted with the ANNs that quantified the importance of the various input predictor variables on final water level elevations. Unlike traditional physical-based models, ANNs do not require explicit characterization of the physical system and related physical data. Accordingly, ANN predictions were made on the basis of more easily quantifiable, measured variables, rather than physical model input parameters and conditions. This study demonstrates that ANNs can provide both excellent prediction capability and valuable sensitivity analyses, which can result in more appropriate ground water management strategies. PMID:15819944

  2. Analytical approach for predicting fresh water discharge in an estuary based on tidal water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, H.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Jiang, C.

    2014-10-01

    As the tidal wave propagates into an estuary, the tidally averaged water level tends to rise in landward direction due to the density difference between saline and fresh water and the asymmetry of the friction. The effect of friction on the residual slope is even more remarkable when accounting for fresh water discharge. In this study, we investigate the influence of river discharge on tidal wave propagation in the Yangtze estuary with specific attention to residual water level slope. This is done by using a one-dimensional analytical model for tidal hydrodynamics accounting for the residual water level. We demonstrate the importance of the residual slope on tidal dynamics and use it to improve the prediction of the tidal propagation in estuaries (i.e. tidal damping, velocity amplitude, wave celerity and phase lag), especially when the influence of river discharge is significant. Finally, we develop a new inverse analytical approach for estimating fresh water discharge on the basis of tidal water level observations along the estuary, which can be used as a tool to obtain information on the river discharge that is otherwise difficult to measure in the tidal region.

  3. Analytical approach for predicting fresh water discharge in an estuary based on tidal water level observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, H.; Savenije, H. H. G.; Jiang, C.

    2014-06-01

    As the tidal wave propagates into an estuary, the tidally averaged water level tends to rise in landward direction due to the density difference between saline and fresh water and the asymmetry of the friction. The effect of friction on the residual slope is even more remarkable when accounting for fresh water discharge. In this study, we investigate the influence of river discharge on tidal wave propagation in the Yangtze estuary with specific attention to residual water level slope. This is done by using a one-dimensional analytical model for tidal hydrodynamics accounting for the residual water level. We demonstrate the importance of the residual slope on tidal dynamics and use it to improve the prediction of the tidal propagation in estuaries (i.e., tidal damping, velocity amplitude, wave celerity and phase lag), especially when the influence of river discharge is significant. Finally, we develop a new inverse analytical approach for estimating fresh water discharge on the basis of tidal water level observations along the estuary, which can be used as a tool to obtain information on the river discharge that is otherwise difficult to measure in the tidal region.

  4. An Investigation of Water Level Prediction in Urban Drainage System Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, F.; Chiang, Y.; Chiu, Y.; Ho, Y.; Chang, L.; Wang, Y.

    2008-12-01

    The pumping stations are the major hydraulic facilities for the elimination of flood in highly developed cities and therefore play an important role in flood mitigation in metropolitan area. Accurate predictions of inner water level in urban drainage systems are necessary and important for successful operation of pumping stations. In view of the characteristics of artificial neural networks (ANNs), the model was introduced in this study for extracting rainfall-water level patterns from torrential rain events. The Yu-Cheng pumping station, Taipei city, is used as a case study, where historical records which contain information of rainfall amounts and inner water levels are used to train and verify the ANN's performance. First, we directly construct the ANN for multistep ahead water level predictions by using 11 storm events at gauging sites. The optimal structure and parameters are then tested via 3 different events. Second, the storm water management model (SWMM) was utilized for the purpose of generating data at un-gauged sites. Data generated from SWMM were further used to train the ANN. Finally, a comparison of water level prediction between SWMM and ANN are given. Our preliminary results show that the ANN is capable of constructing accurate and reliable water level prediction. The results also exemplify the need for a detailed investigation on SWMM-derived error that could propagate the input error into the ANN models.

  5. Predicting Atrazine Levels in Water Utility Intake Water for MCL Compliance

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To protect human health, atrazine concentrations in drinking water must not exceed its maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 3 ug/L. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) mandates that municipal water providers sample quarterly to determine MCL compliance. Atrazine levels were mon...

  6. Predicted impacts of future water level decline on monitoring wells using a ground-water model of the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Wurstner, S.K.; Freshley, M.D.

    1994-12-01

    A ground-water flow model was used to predict water level decline in selected wells in the operating areas (100, 200, 300, and 400 Areas) and the 600 Area. To predict future water levels, the unconfined aquifer system was stimulated with the two-dimensional version of a ground-water model of the Hanford Site, which is based on the Coupled Fluid, Energy, and Solute Transport (CFEST) Code in conjunction with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software package. The model was developed using the assumption that artificial recharge to the unconfined aquifer system from Site operations was much greater than any natural recharge from precipitation or from the basalt aquifers below. However, artificial recharge is presently decreasing and projected to decrease even more in the future. Wells currently used for monitoring at the Hanford Site are beginning to go dry or are difficult to sample, and as the water table declines over the next 5 to 10 years, a larger number of wells is expected to be impacted. The water levels predicted by the ground-water model were compared with monitoring well completion intervals to determine which wells will become dry in the future. Predictions of wells that will go dry within the next 5 years have less uncertainty than predictions for wells that will become dry within 5 to 10 years. Each prediction is an estimate based on assumed future Hanford Site operating conditions and model assumptions.

  7. Prediction of water seepage into a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste

    SciTech Connect

    Birkholzer, Jens; Mukhophadhyay, Sumit; Tsang, Yvonne

    2003-07-07

    Predicting the amount of water that may seep into waste emplacement drifts is important for assessing the performance of the proposed geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The repository would be located in thick, partially saturated fractured tuff that will be heated to above-boiling temperatures as a result of heat generation from the decay of nuclear waste. Since infiltrating water will be subject to vigorous boiling for a significant time period, the superheated rock zone (i.e., rock temperature above the boiling point of water) can form an effective vaporization barrier that reduces the possibility of water arrival at emplacement drifts. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of episodic preferential flow events that penetrate the hot fractured rock, evaluate the impact of such flow behavior on the effectiveness of the vaporization barrier, and discuss the implications for the performance assessment of the repository. A semi-analytical solution is utilized to determine the complex flow processes in the hot rock environment. The solution is applied at several discrete times after emplacement, covering the time period of strongly elevated temperatures at Yucca Mountain.

  8. Interpretation of changes in water level accompanying fault creep and implications for earthquake prediction.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wesson, R.L.

    1981-01-01

    Quantitative calculations for the effect of a fault creep event on observations of changes in water level in wells provide an approach to the tectonic interpretation of these phenomena. For the pore pressure field associated with an idealized creep event having an exponential displacement versus time curve, an analytic expression has been obtained in terms of exponential-integral functions. The pore pressure versus time curves for observation points near the fault are pulselike; a sharp pressure increase (or decrease, depending on the direction of propagation) is followed by more gradual decay to the normal level after the creep event. The time function of the water level change may be obtained by applying the filter - derived by A.G.Johnson and others to determine the influence of atmospheric pressure on water level - to the analytic pore pressure versus time curves. The resulting water level curves show a fairly rapid increase (or decrease) and then a very gradual return to normal. The results of this analytic model do not reproduce the steplike changes in water level observed by Johnson and others. If the procedure used to obtain the water level from the pore pressure is correct, these results suggest that steplike changes in water level are not produced by smoothly propagating creep events but by creep events that propagate discontinuously, by changes in the bulk properties of the region around the well, or by some other mechanism.-Author

  9. Dynamic neural networks for real-time water level predictions of sewerage systems - covering gauged and ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.-M.; Chang, L.-C.; Tsai, M.-J.; Wang, Y.-F.; Chang, F.-J.

    2010-04-01

    In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows a signal to propagate in backward direction which gives this network a dynamic memory to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

  10. Construction and use of special drawdown scales for use in prediction of water-level changes throughout heavily pumped areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conover, C.S.; Reeder, H.O.

    1957-01-01

    Problem and Proposed Method of Solution Frequently the Theis nonequilibrium formula is use din the quantitative analyses that are part of many-ground-water investigations. The computations associated therewith may become quite involved and tedious, especially when dealing with predictions of the decline of water levels throughout large areas in which there are many discharging wells. The process of predicting future water-level declines can be greatly simplified and shortened by preparing a special draw-down scale for given conditions. Through use of such a scale much of the computation can be reduced to scaling the values sought from a map, on which the pumped wells have been spotted. The net drawdown effect, which is the sum of the water-level declines caused by the many individual pumped wells, can be determined readily for any desired point in the area. If the net drawdown effect is desired, a summation of the effects of all the pumped wells can be repeated for each point. By determining the water-level change at a number of points, for a given period of time, a contour map of predicted water-level changes for the multiple-well system can be drawn.

  11. Importance of Long-Term Cycles for Predicting Water Level Dynamics in Natural Lakes

    PubMed Central

    García Molinos, Jorge; Viana, Mafalda; Brennan, Michael; Donohue, Ian

    2015-01-01

    Lakes are disproportionately important ecosystems for humanity, containing 77% of the liquid surface freshwater on Earth and comprising key contributors to global biodiversity. With an ever-growing human demand for water and increasing climate uncertainty, there is pressing need for improved understanding of the underlying patterns of natural variability of water resources and consideration of their implications for water resource management and conservation. Here we use Bayesian harmonic regression models to characterise water level dynamics and study the influence of cyclic components in confounding estimation of long-term directional trends in water levels in natural Irish lakes. We found that the lakes were characterised by a common and well-defined annual seasonality and several inter-annual and inter-decadal cycles with strong transient behaviour over time. Importantly, failing to account for the longer-term cyclic components produced a significant overall underestimation of the trend effect. Our findings demonstrate the importance of contextualising lake water resource management to the specific physical setting of lakes. PMID:25757071

  12. Dynamic neural networks for real-time water level predictions of sewerage systems-covering gauged and ungauged sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Yen-Ming; Chang, Li-Chiu; Tsai, Meng-Jung; Wang, Yi-Fung; Chang, Fi-John

    2010-07-01

    In this research, we propose recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to build a relationship between rainfalls and water level patterns of an urban sewerage system based on historical torrential rain/storm events. The RNN allows signals to propagate in both forward and backward directions, which offers the network dynamic memories. Besides, the information at the current time-step with a feedback operation can yield a time-delay unit that provides internal input information at the next time-step to effectively deal with time-varying systems. The RNN is implemented at both gauged and ungauged sites for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-min-ahead water level predictions. The results show that the RNN is capable of learning the nonlinear sewerage system and producing satisfactory predictions at the gauged sites. Concerning the ungauged sites, there are no historical data of water level to support prediction. In order to overcome such problem, a set of synthetic data, generated from a storm water management model (SWMM) under cautious verification process of applicability based on the data from nearby gauging stations, are introduced as the learning target to the training procedure of the RNN and moreover evaluating the performance of the RNN at the ungauged sites. The results demonstrate that the potential role of the SWMM coupled with nearby rainfall and water level information can be of great use in enhancing the capability of the RNN at the ungauged sites. Hence we can conclude that the RNN is an effective and suitable model for successfully predicting the water levels at both gauged and ungauged sites in urban sewerage systems.

  13. How historical information can improve extreme coastal water levels probability prediction: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2014-11-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativize such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that: (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data till end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data till end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  14. Predicting Aircraft Noise Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1983-01-01

    Computer program developed for predicting aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. Noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust jet flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine and airframe. Program written in FORTRAN IV.

  15. Digital-model analysis to predict water levels in a well field near Columbus, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Planert, Michael

    1976-01-01

    Columbus, Indiana, obtains its water supply from six municipally owned wells southwest of the city. The wells are screened in an outwash sand and gravel aquifer that was deposited by glacial melt water in a preglacial bedrock valley. The well field is midway between the East Fork White River and the western edge of the valley. A digital model was used to determine the effects of two pumping plans on the outwash sand and gravel aquifer. In pumping plan 1, a continuous pumping rate of 1,400 gallons per minute (gpm) for 10 years in each of the city 's six existing wells was simulated with the model. Model results of plan 1 indicate that the water levels in the area of the well field would be lowered more than 20 ft and that drawdowns in the wells would approach 35 ft after 10 years ' pumping. Pumping plan 2 had two stages of pumping. In the first, a continuous pumping rate of 1,400 gpm for 5 years in each of the city 's six existing wells was simulated with the model; the second stage of pumping plan 2 differed from stage 1 only in that five planned wells were added to the six existing wells. Model results of plan 2 indicate that water levels in the area of the well field would be lowered as much as 40 feet. Drawdown at two of the well sites would approach 60 ft, leaving less than 15 ft of the initial 70 ft of saturated thickness at the two wells after 10 years ' pumping. (Woodard-USGS)

  16. Predicted airframe noise levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raney, J. P.

    1980-01-01

    Calculated values of airframe noise levels corresponding to FAA noise certification conditions for six aircraft are presented. The aircraft are: DC-9-30; Boeing 727-200; A300-B2 Airbus; Lockheed L-1011; DC-10-10; and Boeing 747-200B. The prediction methodology employed is described and discussed.

  17. Predicted airframe noise levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raney, J. P.

    1980-09-01

    Calculated values of airframe noise levels corresponding to FAA noise certification conditions for six aircraft are presented. The aircraft are: DC-9-30; Boeing 727-200; A300-B2 Airbus; Lockheed L-1011; DC-10-10; and Boeing 747-200B. The prediction methodology employed is described and discussed.

  18. Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López López, P.; Verkade, J. S.; Weerts, A. H.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2014-09-01

    The present study comprises an intercomparison of different configurations of a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty. It builds on earlier work by Weerts, Winsemius and Verkade (2011; hereafter referred to as WWV2011), who used the quantile regression technique to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty using a deterministic water level forecast as a predictor. The various configurations are designed to address two issues with the WWV2011 implementation: (i) quantile crossing, which causes non-strictly rising cumulative predictive distributions, and (ii) the use of linear quantile models to describe joint distributions that may not be strictly linear. Thus, four configurations were built: (i) a ''classical" quantile regression, (ii) a configuration that implements a non-crossing quantile technique, (iii) a configuration where quantile models are built in normal space after application of the normal quantile transformation (NQT) (similar to the implementation used by WWV2011), and (iv) a configuration that builds quantile model separately on separate domains of the predictor. Using each configuration, four reforecasting series of water levels at 14 stations in the upper Severn River were established. The quality of these four series was intercompared using a set of graphical and numerical verification metrics. Intercomparison showed that reliability and sharpness vary across configurations, but in none of the configurations do these two forecast quality aspects improve simultaneously. Further analysis shows that skills in terms of the Brier skill score, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and relative operating characteristic score is very similar across the four configurations.

  19. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida Everglades.

    PubMed

    van der Valk, Arnold G; Volin, John C; Wetzel, Paul R

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades. PMID:25566832

  20. Predicted Changes in Interannual Water-Level Fluctuations Due to Climate Change and Its Implications for the Vegetation of the Florida Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Valk, Arnold G.; Volin, John C.; Wetzel, Paul R.

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.

  1. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations due to climate change and its implications for the vegetation of the Florida Everglades.

    TOXLINE Toxicology Bibliographic Information

    van der Valk AG; Volin JC; Wetzel PR

    2015-04-01

    The number of dominant vegetation types (wet prairies, sawgrass flats, ridges and sloughs, sloughs, and tree islands) historically and currently found in the Everglades, FL, USA, as with other wetlands with standing water, appears to be primarily a function of the magnitude of interannual water-level fluctuations. Analyses of 40 years of water-depth data were used to estimate the magnitude of contemporary (baseline) water-level fluctuations in undisturbed ridge and slough landscapes. Baseline interannual water-level fluctuations above the soil surface were at least 1.5 m. Predicted changes in interannual water-level fluctuations in 2060 were examined for seven climate change scenarios. When rainfall is predicted to increase by 10 %, the wettest scenario, the interannual range of water-level fluctuation increases to 1.8 m above the soil surface in sloughs. When rainfall is predicted to decrease by 10 % and temperatures to increase by 1.5 °C, the driest scenario, the range of interannual range of water-level fluctuations is predicted to decrease to 1.2 m above the soil surface in sloughs. A change of 25-30 cm in interannual water-level fluctuations is needed to change the number of vegetation types in a wetland. This suggests that the two most extreme climate change scenarios could have a significant impact on the overall structure of wetland vegetation, i.e., the number of vegetation types or zones, found in the Everglades.

  2. Alternative configurations of Quantile Regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the Upper Severn River: a comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopez, Patricia; Verkade, Jan; Weerts, Albrecht; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological forecasting is subject to many sources of uncertainty, including those originating in initial state, boundary conditions, model structure and model parameters. Although uncertainty can be reduced, it can never be fully eliminated. Statistical post-processing techniques constitute an often used approach to estimate the hydrological predictive uncertainty, where a model of forecast error is built using a historical record of past forecasts and observations. The present study focuses on the use of the Quantile Regression (QR) technique as a hydrological post-processor. It estimates the predictive distribution of water levels using deterministic water level forecasts as predictors. This work aims to thoroughly verify uncertainty estimates using the implementation of QR that was applied in an operational setting in the UK National Flood Forecasting System, and to inter-compare forecast quality and skill in various, differing configurations of QR. These configurations are (i) 'classical' QR, (ii) QR constrained by a requirement that quantiles do not cross, (iii) QR derived on time series that have been transformed into the Normal domain (Normal Quantile Transformation - NQT), and (iv) a piecewise linear derivation of QR models. The QR configurations are applied to fourteen hydrological stations on the Upper Severn River with different catchments characteristics. Results of each QR configuration are conditionally verified for progressively higher flood levels, in terms of commonly used verification metrics and skill scores. These include Brier's probability score (BS), the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and corresponding skill scores as well as the Relative Operating Characteristic score (ROCS). Reliability diagrams are also presented and analysed. The results indicate that none of the four Quantile Regression configurations clearly outperforms the others.

  3. Sport-Specific Conditioning Variables Predict Offensive and Defensive Performance in High-Level Youth Water Polo Athletes.

    PubMed

    Sekulic, Damir; Kontic, Dean; Esco, Michael R; Zenic, Natasa; Milanovic, Zoran; Zvan, Milan

    2016-05-01

    Sekulic, D, Kontic, D, Esco, MR, Zenic, N, Milanovic, Z, and Zvan, M. Sport-specific conditioning variables predict offensive and defensive performance in high-level youth water polo athletes. J Strength Cond Res 30(5): 1316-1324, 2016-Specific-conditioning capacities (SCC) are known to be generally important in water polo (WP), yet the independent associations to offensive and defensive performance is unknown. This study aimed to determine whether offense and defense abilities in WP were independently associated with SCC and anthropometrics. The participants were 82 high-level male youth WP players (all 17-19 years of age; body height, 186.3 ± 6.07 cm; body mass, 84.8 ± 9.6 kg). The independent variables were body height and body mass, and 5 sport-specific fitness tests: sprint swimming over 15 meters; 4 × 50-meter anaerobic-endurance test; vertical in-water-jump; maximum intensity isometric force in upright swimming using an eggbeater kick; and test of throwing velocity. The 6 dependent variables comprised parameters of defensive and offensive performance, such as polyvalence, i.e., ability to play on different positions in defensive tasks (PD) and offensive tasks (PO), efficacy in primary playing position in defensive (ED) and offensive (EO) tasks, and agility in defensive (AD) and offensive (AO) tasks. Analyses showed appropriate reliability for independent (intraclass coefficient of 0.82-0.91) and dependent variables (Cronbach alpha of 0.81-0.95). Multiple regressions were significant for ED (R = 0.25; p < 0.01), EO (R = 0.21; p < 0.01), AD (R = 0.40; p < 0.01), and AO (R = 0.35; p < 0.01). Anaerobic-swimming performance was positively related to AD (β = -0.26; p ≤ 0.05), whereas advanced sprint swimming was related to better AO (β = -0.38; p ≤ 0.05). In-water-jumping performance held the significant positive relationship to EO (β = 0.31; p ≤ 0.05), ED (β = 0.33; p ≤ 0.05), and AD (β = 0.37; p ≤ 0.05). Strength and conditioning professionals working in WP should be aware of established importance of SCC in performing unique duties in WP. The SCC should be specifically developed to meet the needs of offensive and defensive performance in young WP athletes. PMID:26439788

  4. Ground-water-level monitoring for earthquake prediction; a progress report based on data collected in Southern California, 1976-79

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moyle, W.R., Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a research program to determine if groundwater-level measurements can be used for earthquake prediction. Earlier studies suggest that water levels in wells may be responsive to small strains on the order of 10 to the minus 8th power to 10 to the minus 10th power (dimensionless). Water-level data being collected in the area of the southern California uplift show response to earthquakes and other natural and manmade effects. The data are presently (1979) being made ready for computer analysis. The completed analysis may indicate the presence of precursory earthquake information. (USGS)

  5. Improved sea level anomaly prediction through combination of data relationship analysis and genetic programming in Singapore Regional Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurniawan, Alamsyah; Ooi, Seng Keat; Babovic, Vladan

    2014-11-01

    With recent advances in measurement and information technology, there is an abundance of data available for analysis and modelling of hydrodynamic systems. Spatial and temporal data coverage, better quality and reliability of data modelling and data driven techniques have resulted in more favourable acceptance by the hydrodynamic community. The data mining tools and techniques are being applied in variety of hydro-informatics applications ranging from data mining for pattern discovery to data driven models and numerical model error correction. The present study explores the feasibility of applying mutual information theory by evaluating the amount of information contained in observed and prediction errors of non-tidal barotropic numerical modelling (i.e. assuming that the hydrodynamic model, available at this point, is best representation of the physics in the domain of interest) by relating them to variables that reflect the state at which the predictions are made such as input data, state variables and model output. In addition, the present study explores the possibility of employing ‘genetic programming' (GP) as an offline data driven modelling tool to capture the sea level anomaly (SLA) dynamics and then using them for updating the numerical model prediction in real time applications. These results suggest that combination of data relationship analysis and GP models helps to improve the forecasting ability by providing information of significant predicative parameters. It is found that GP based SLA prediction error forecast model can provide significant improvement when applied as data assimilation schemes for updating the SLA prediction obtained from primary hydrodynamic models.

  6. Predicted water-level and water-quality effects of artificial recharge in the Upper Coachella Valley, California, using a finite-element digital model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Lindsay A.

    1978-01-01

    From 1936 to 1974, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the Palm Springs area and 60 feet in the Palm Desert area of the upper Coachella Valley, Calif. Water from the Colorado River Aqueduct is presently being recharged to the basin. The dissolved-solids concentration of native ground water in the recharge area is about 210 mg/liter and that of recharge water ranges from 600 to 750 mg/liter. A finite-element model indicates that without recharge the 1974 water levels in the Palm Springs area will decline 200 feet by the year 2000 because of pumpage. If the aquifer is recharged at a rate from about 7 ,500 acre-feet per year in 1973 increasing to 61,200 acre-feet per year in 1990 and thereafter, the water level in the Palm Springs area will decline about 20 feet below the 1974 level by 1991 and recover to the 1974 level by 2000. The solute-transport finite-element model of the recharge area indicates that the artificial recharge plume (bounded by the 300-mg/liter line) will move about 1.1 miles downgradient of the recharge ponds by 1981 and about 4.5 miles from the ponds by 2000. (Woodard-USGS)

  7. Predicting pesticide environmental risk in intensive agricultural areas. II: Screening level risk assessment of complex mixtures in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Verro, Roberto; Finizio, Antonio; Otto, Stefan; Vighi, Marco

    2009-01-15

    In a previous article, a procedure for assessing pesticide ecotoxicological risk for surface water was applied to all active ingredients in a pilot basin. This data set has been used to assess the composition of pesticide mixtures that are likely to be present in surface waters as a consequence of pesticide emissions from the crops grown within the basin (maize, soybean, sugar beet, and vineyard). Temporal evolution of the mixture composition has been evaluated as a function of the different contamination patterns (drift and runoff). Ecotoxicological risk has been assessed for the mixtures released by individual crops and from all the relevant crops cultivated in the basin. The different role of drift and runoff, as well as the temporal trends of exposure and risk are compared. Daphnia is the most affected among the three indicator organisms considered, particularly from drift mixtures after insecticide application on vineyard. The highest risk for algae occurs during runoff events in spring. In most risk events, one or a few chemicals are usually responsible for more than 80% of the toxic potency of the mixture. The CA model for predicting mixture response is assumed to be a reliable approach for assessing risk for ecologically relevant pesticide mixtures. PMID:19238990

  8. How historical information can improve estimation and prediction of extreme coastal water levels: application to the Xynthia event at La Rochelle (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulteau, T.; Idier, D.; Lambert, J.; Garcin, M.

    2015-06-01

    The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

  9. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  10. PREDICTION OF AIRCRAFT NOISE LEVELS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1994-01-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources have been incorporated into a computer program for predicting aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground test. The noise sources accounted for include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available in the program for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. The capacity to solve the geometrical relationships between an aircraft in flight and an observer on the ground has been included in the program to make it useful in evaluating noise estimates and footprints for various proposed engine installations. The program contains two main routines for employing the noise prediction routines. The first main routine consists of a procedure to calculate at various observer stations the time history of the noise from an aircraft flying at a specified set of speeds, orientations, and space coordinates. The various components of the noise are computed by the program. For each individual source, the noise levels are free field with no corrections for propagation losses other than spherical divergence. The total spectra may then be corrected for the usual effects of atmospheric attenuation, extra ground attenuation, ground reflection, and aircraft shielding. Next, the corresponding values of overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, and tone-weighted perceived noise level are calculated. From the time history at each point, true effective perceived noise levels are calculated. Thus, values of effective perceived noise levels, maximum perceived noise levels, and tone-weighted perceived noise levels are found for a grid of specified points on the ground. The second main routine is designed to give the usual format of one-third octave sound pressure level values at a fixed radius for a number of user-selected angles, such as would simulate the ground acoustic testing of an engine. This computer program is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution and has been implemented on an IBM 360 series computer with a central memory requirement of approximately 120K of 8 bit bytes. This program was developed in 1981.

  11. PREDICTING FUTURE WATER DEMAND

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decentralization within metropolitan areas has been a major aspect of population movement in the United States over the past two decades. The trend has great significance for all urban service activities. In particular, it affects water supply planning in urban areas. Both number...

  12. Radon levels can be predicted

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wainger, Lisa A.

    Scientists doing a yearlong study of radon levels in houses have identified several major factors that affect concentrations and have developed a method for predicting indoor radon levels before a house is built. Douglas Mose and George Mushrush (George Mason University, Fairfax, Va.) studied 1500 homes in northern Virginia and central Maryland near Washington, D.C.Radon is a radioactive decay product of uranium that occurs in many rock types. The gas can accumulate in buildings and pose a serious health hazard. Results from the Washington-area study show that ˜35% of the houses had average yearly radon concentrations above 4 pico-Curies per liter (pCi/L), the level at which the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) suggests that a homeowner should take steps to reduce radon concentrations. At a level of 4-10 pCi/L an estimated 13-120 lung cancer deaths would be expected for every 1000 people exposed. Such a risk is comparable to having 200 chest X rays per year, according to EPA statistics.

  13. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    PubMed

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale. PMID:25694031

  14. Prediction of concentration levels of metformin and other high consumption pharmaceuticals in wastewater and regional surface water based on sales data.

    PubMed

    Oosterhuis, Mathijs; Sacher, Frank; Ter Laak, Thomas L

    2013-01-01

    Local consumption data of pharmaceuticals were used to study the emission to wastewater and surface waters in two small Dutch water catchments. For nine high consumption pharmaceuticals: metformin, metoprolol, sotalol, losartan, valsartan, irbesartan, hydrochlorothiazide, diclofenac and carbamazepine, predicted emissions were compared to wastewater concentrations, removal in sewage treatment plants and recovery in regional surface water. The study shows that local consumption data can be very useful to select pharmaceuticals for monitoring and to predict wastewater concentrations. Measured influent concentrations were on average 78% with a range of 31-138% of predicted influent concentrations. Metformin is the pharmaceutical with the highest concentration in wastewater (64-98 μg/L) but it is removed with >98% in sewage treatment plants (STP). Guanylurea, a biodegradation product of metformin, was detected in STP effluents and surface waters at concentrations of 39-56 μg/L and 1.8-3.9 μg/L, respectively. The STP removal of the different pharmaceuticals varied strongly. For carbamazepine, hydrochlorothiazide and sotalol a significant better removal was found at higher temperatures and longer hydraulic retention times while for metoprolol significantly better removal was only observed at higher temperatures. Predicting environmental concentrations from regional consumption data might be an alternative to monitoring of pharmaceuticals in wastewater and surface waters. PMID:23183121

  15. Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression

    MedlinePlus

    ... Research Matters NIH Research Matters February 3, 2014 Vitamin D Levels Predict Multiple Sclerosis Progression Among people ... sclerosis (MS), those with higher blood levels of vitamin D had better outcomes during 5 years of ...

  16. Arsenic levels in Oregon waters.

    PubMed Central

    Stoner, J C; Whanger, P D; Weswig, P H

    1977-01-01

    The arsenic content of well water in certain areas of Oregon can range up to 30 to 40 times the U.S.P.H.S. Drinking Water Standard of 1962, where concentrations in excess of 50 ppb are grounds for rejection. The elevated arsenic levels in water are postulated to be due to volcanic deposits. Wells in central Lane County, Oregon, that are known to contain arsenic rich water are in an area underlain by a particular group of sedimentary and volcanic rocks, which geologists have named the Fischer formation. The arsenic levels in water from wells ranged from no detectable amounts to 2,000 ppb. In general the deeper wells contained higher arsenic water. The high arsenic waters are characterized by the small amounts of calcium and magnesium in relation to that of sodium, a high content of boron, and a high pH. Water from some hot springs in other areas of Oregon was found to range as high as 900 ppb arsenic. Arsenic blood levels ranged from 32 ppb for people living in areas where water is low in arsenic to 250 ppb for those living in areas where water is known to contain high levels of arsenic. Some health problems associated with consumption of arsenic-rich water are discussed. PMID:908291

  17. Streamflow and Water Level Measurements

    USGS scientists Joel Galloway and Dan Thomas prepare to take streamflow and water level measurements of the flooded Red River in downtown Fargo, ND. The USGS Red River of the North at Fargo streamgage can be seen in the background....

  18. Groundwater Level Prediction Using Gray System Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, S.; Wen, J.; Chen, K.; Huang, Z.

    2009-12-01

    The variation of groundwater level is usually investigated on several research scopes. The accurate groundwater level prediction can be applied to studies of disaster prevention which like slope stable analysis and debris flow driving factor estimation. The objective of this study is to use the grey system theory (GST) to establish the relationship between rainfall and groundwater level. The rainfall and groundwater level data are collected from the monitored site at National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliou, Yunlin, Taiwan. The results show that the estimation of groundwater level includes three parts that are the long-term trend, periodic variation and random fluctuation, respectively. Finally, the prediction of groundwater level has been interpreted.

  19. Computer program to predict aircraft noise levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1981-09-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources were programmed to predict aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. The noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. Outputs can include spectra, overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, tone-weighted perceived noise level, and effective perceived noise level at locations specified by the user. Footprint contour coordinates and approximate footprint areas can also be calculated. Inputs and outputs can be in either System International or U.S. customary units. The subroutines for each noise source and propagation correction are described. A complete listing is given.

  20. Computer program to predict aircraft noise levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clark, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods developed at the NASA Lewis Research Center for predicting the noise contributions from various aircraft noise sources were programmed to predict aircraft noise levels either in flight or in ground tests. The noise sources include fan inlet and exhaust, jet, flap (for powered lift), core (combustor), turbine, and airframe. Noise propagation corrections are available for atmospheric attenuation, ground reflections, extra ground attenuation, and shielding. Outputs can include spectra, overall sound pressure level, perceived noise level, tone-weighted perceived noise level, and effective perceived noise level at locations specified by the user. Footprint contour coordinates and approximate footprint areas can also be calculated. Inputs and outputs can be in either System International or U.S. customary units. The subroutines for each noise source and propagation correction are described. A complete listing is given.

  1. Groundwater Level Prediction using M5 Model Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalarajan, Nitha Ayinippully; Mohandas, C.

    2015-01-01

    Groundwater is an important resource, readily available and having high economic value and social benefit. Recently, it had been considered a dependable source of uncontaminated water. During the past two decades, increased rate of extraction and other greedy human actions have resulted in the groundwater crisis, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Under prevailing circumstances, the availability of predicted groundwater levels increase the importance of this valuable resource, as an aid in the planning of groundwater resources. For this purpose, data-driven prediction models are widely used in the present day world. M5 model tree (MT) is a popular soft computing method emerging as a promising method for numeric prediction, producing understandable models. The present study discusses the groundwater level predictions using MT employing only the historical groundwater levels from a groundwater monitoring well. The results showed that MT can be successively used for forecasting groundwater levels.

  2. Modeling system for predicting enterococci levels at Holly Beach.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zaihong; Deng, Zhiqiang; Rusch, Kelly A; Walker, Nan D

    2015-08-01

    This paper presents a new modeling system for nowcasting and forecasting enterococci levels in coastal recreation waters at any time during the day. The modeling system consists of (1) an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting the enterococci level at sunrise time, (2) a clear-sky solar radiation and turbidity correction to the ANN model, (3) remote sensing algorithms for turbidity, and (4) nowcasting/forecasting data. The first three components are also unique features of the new modeling system. While the component (1) is useful to beach monitoring programs requiring enterococci levels in early morning, the component (2) in combination with the component (1) makes it possible to predict the bacterial level in beach waters at any time during the day if the data from the components (3) and (4) are available. Therefore, predictions from the component (2) are of primary interest to beachgoers. The modeling system was developed using three years of swimming season data and validated using additional four years of independent data. Testing results showed that (1) the sunrise-time model correctly reproduced 82.63% of the advisories issued in seven years with a false positive rate of 2.65% and a false negative rate of 14.72%, and (2) the new modeling system was capable of predicting the temporal variability in enterococci levels in beach waters, ranging from hourly changes to daily cycles. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the new modeling system in predicting enterococci levels in coastal beach waters. Applications of the modeling system will improve the management of recreational beaches and protection of public health. PMID:26186681

  3. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1975

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ballance, W.C.; Freudenthal, Pamela B.

    1976-01-01

    Ground-water levels are measured periodically in a network of about 260 observation wells in Wyoming to record changes in ground-water storage. The areas of water-level observation are mostly where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. This report contains maps showing location of observation wells and water-level changes from 1975 to 1976. Well history, highest and lowest water levels , and hydrographs for most wells also are included. (Woodard-USGS)

  4. Satellite Water Impurity Marker (SWIM) for predicting seasonal cholera outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jutla, A. S.; Akanda, A. S.; Islam, S.

    2011-12-01

    Prediction of outbreaks of cholera, a deadly water related disease, remains elusive. Since coastal brackish water provides a natural ecological niche for cholera bacteria and because a powerful evidence of new biotypes is emerging, it is highly unlikely that cholera will be fully eradicated. Therefore, it is necessary to develop cholera prediction model with several months' of lead time. Satellite based estimates of chlorophyll, a surrogate for phytoplankton abundance, has been associated with proliferation of cholera bacteria. However, survival of cholera bacteria in a variety of coastal ecological environment put constraints on predictive abilities of chlorophyll algorithm since it only measures greenness in coastal waters. Here, we propose a new remote sensing reflectance based statistical index: Satellite Water Impurity Marker, or SWIM. This statistical index estimates impurity levels in the coastal waters and is based on the variability observed in the difference between the blue (412nm) and green (555nm) wavelengths in coastal waters. The developed index is bounded between clear and impure water and shows the ability to predict cholera outbreaks in the Bengal Delta with a predicted r2 of 78% with two months lead time. We anticipate that a predictive system based on SWIM will provide essential lead time allowing effective intervention and mitigation strategies to be developed for other cholera endemic regions of the world.

  5. Blind Prediction of Interfacial Water Positions in CAPRI

    PubMed Central

    Moal, Iain H.; Bates, Paul A.; Kastritis, Panagiotis L.; Melquiond, Adrien S.J.; Karaca, Ezgi; Schmitz, Christophe; van Dijk, Marc; Bonvin, Alexandre M.J.J.; Eisenstein, Miriam; Jiménez-García, Brian; Grosdidier, Solène; Solernou, Albert; Pérez-Cano, Laura; Pallara, Chiara; Fernández-Recio, Juan; Xu, Jianqing; Muthu, Pravin; Kilambi, Krishna Praneeth; Gray, Jeffrey J.; Grudinin, Sergei; Derevyanko, Georgy; Mitchell, Julie C.; Wieting, John; Kanamori, Eiji; Tsuchiya, Yuko; Murakami, Yoichi; Sarmiento, Joy; Standley, Daron M.; Shirota, Matsuyuki; Kinoshita, Kengo; Nakamura, Haruki; Chavent, Matthieu; Ritchie, David W.; Park, Hahnbeom; Ko, Junsu; Lee, Hasup; Seok, Chaok; Shen, Yang; Kozakov, Dima; Vajda, Sandor; Kundrotas, Petras J.; Vakser, Ilya A.; Pierce, Brian G.; Hwang, Howook; Vreven, Thom; Weng, Zhiping; Buch, Idit; Farkash, Efrat; Wolfson, Haim J.; Zacharias, Martin; Qin, Sanbo; Zhou, Huan-Xiang; Huang, Shen-You; Zou, Xiaoqin; Wojdyla, Justyna A.; Kleanthous, Colin; Wodak, Shoshana J.

    2015-01-01

    We report the first assessment of blind predictions of water positions at protein-protein interfaces, performed as part of the CAPRI (Critical Assessment of Predicted Interactions) community-wide experiment. Groups submitting docking predictions for the complex of the DNase domain of colicin E2 and Im2 immunity protein (CAPRI target 47), were invited to predict the positions of interfacial water molecules using the method of their choice. The predictions – 20 groups submitted a total of 195 models – were assessed by measuring the recall fraction of water-mediated protein contacts. Of the 176 high or medium quality docking models – a very good docking performance per se – only 44% had a recall fraction above 0.3, and a mere 6% above 0.5. The actual water positions were in general predicted to an accuracy level no better than 1.5 Å, and even in good models about half of the contacts represented false positives. This notwithstanding, three hotspot interface water positions were quite well predicted, and so was one of the water positions that is believed to stabilize the loop that confers specificity in these complexes. Overall the best interface water predictions was achieved by groups that also produced high quality docking models, indicating that accurate modelling of the protein portion is a determinant factor. The use of established molecular mechanics force fields, coupled to sampling and optimization procedures also seemed to confer an advantage. Insights gained from this analysis should help improve the prediction of protein-water interactions and their role in stabilizing protein complexes. PMID:24155158

  6. Passive samplers accurately predict PAH levels in resident crayfish.

    PubMed

    Paulik, L Blair; Smith, Brian W; Bergmann, Alan J; Sower, Greg J; Forsberg, Norman D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Anderson, Kim A

    2016-02-15

    Contamination of resident aquatic organisms is a major concern for environmental risk assessors. However, collecting organisms to estimate risk is often prohibitively time and resource-intensive. Passive sampling accurately estimates resident organism contamination, and it saves time and resources. This study used low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive water samplers to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus. Resident crayfish were collected at 5 sites within and outside of the Portland Harbor Superfund Megasite (PHSM) in the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon. LDPE deployment was spatially and temporally paired with crayfish collection. Crayfish visceral and tail tissue, as well as water-deployed LDPE, were extracted and analyzed for 62 PAHs using GC-MS/MS. Freely-dissolved concentrations (Cfree) of PAHs in water were calculated from concentrations in LDPE. Carcinogenic risks were estimated for all crayfish tissues, using benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq). ∑PAH were 5-20 times higher in viscera than in tails, and ∑BaPeq were 6-70 times higher in viscera than in tails. Eating only tail tissue of crayfish would therefore significantly reduce carcinogenic risk compared to also eating viscera. Additionally, PAH levels in crayfish were compared to levels in crayfish collected 10years earlier. PAH levels in crayfish were higher upriver of the PHSM and unchanged within the PHSM after the 10-year period. Finally, a linear regression model predicted levels of 34 PAHs in crayfish viscera with an associated R-squared value of 0.52 (and a correlation coefficient of 0.72), using only the Cfree PAHs in water. On average, the model predicted PAH concentrations in crayfish tissue within a factor of 2.4±1.8 of measured concentrations. This affirms that passive water sampling accurately estimates PAH contamination in crayfish. Furthermore, the strong predictive ability of this simple model suggests that it could be easily adapted to predict contamination in other shellfish of concern. PMID:26674706

  7. Ground-water levels in Wyoming, 1976

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ballance, W.C.; Freudenthal, Pamela B.

    1977-01-01

    Ground-water levels are measured periodically in a network of about 280 observation wells in Wyoming to record changes in ground-water storage. The areas of water-level observation are mostly where ground water is used in large quantities for irrigation or municipal purposes. This report contains maps showing location of observation wells and water-level changes from 1976 to 1977. Well history, highest and lowest water levels , and hydrographs for most wells also are included. The program of groundwater observation is conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and the city of Cheyenne. (Woodard-USGS)

  8. Predicting Trihalomethanes (THMs) in the New York City Water Supply

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukundan, R.; Van Dreason, R.

    2013-12-01

    Chlorine, a commonly used disinfectant in most water supply systems, can combine with organic carbon to form disinfectant byproducts including carcinogenic trihalomethanes (THMs). We used water quality data from 24 monitoring sites within the New York City (NYC) water supply distribution system, measured between January 2009 and April 2012, to develop site-specific empirical models for predicting total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels. Terms in the model included various combinations of the following water quality parameters: total organic carbon, pH, specific conductivity, and water temperature. Reasonable estimates of TTHM levels were achieved with overall R2 of about 0.87 and predicted values within 5 μg/L of measured values. The relative importance of factors affecting TTHM formation was estimated by ranking the model regression coefficients. Site-specific models showed improved model performance statistics compared to a single model for the entire system most likely because the single model did not consider locational differences in the water treatment process. Although never out of compliance in 2011, the TTHM levels in the water supply increased following tropical storms Irene and Lee with 45% of the samples exceeding the 80 μg/L Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) in October and November. This increase was explained by changes in water quality parameters, particularly by the increase in total organic carbon concentration and pH during this period.

  9. Predicting ozone levels : A statistical model for predicting ozone levels in the Shuaiba Industrial Area, Kuwait.

    PubMed

    Abdul-Wahab, S; Bouhamra, W; Ettouney, H; Sowerby, B; Crittenden, B D

    1996-12-01

    This paper presents a statistical model that is capable of predicting ozone levels from precursor concentrations and meteorological conditions during daylight hours in the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA) of Kuwait. The model has been developed from ambient air quality data that was recorded for one year starting from December 1994 using an air pollution mobile monitoring station. The functional relationship between ozone level and the various independent variables has been determined by using a stepwise multiple regression modelling procedure. The model contains two terms that describe the dependence of ozone on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane hydrocarbon precursor concentrations, and other terms that relate to wind direction, wind speed, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and solar energy. In the model, the levels of the precursors are inversely related to ozone concentration, whereas SO2 concentration, wind speed and solar radiation are positively correlated. Typically, 63 % of the variation in ozone levels can be explained by the levels of NOx. The model is shown to be statistically significant and model predictions and experimental observations are shown to be consistent. A detailed analysis of the ozone-temperature relationship is also presented; at temperatures less than 27 °C there is a positive correlation between temperature and ozone concentration whereas at temperatures greater than 27 °C a negative correlation is seen. This is the first time a non-monotonic relationship between ozone levels and temperature has been reported and discussed. PMID:24233416

  10. Predicting water table response to rainfall events, central Florida.

    PubMed

    van Gaalen, J F; Kruse, S; Lafrenz, W B; Burroughs, S M

    2013-01-01

    A rise in water table in response to a rainfall event is a complex function of permeability, specific yield, antecedent soil-water conditions, water table level, evapotranspiration, vegetation, lateral groundwater flow, and rainfall volume and intensity. Predictions of water table response, however, commonly assume a linear relationship between response and rainfall based on cumulative analysis of water level and rainfall logs. By identifying individual rainfall events and responses, we examine how the response/rainfall ratio varies as a function of antecedent water table level (stage) and rainfall event size. For wells in wetlands and uplands in central Florida, incorporating stage and event size improves forecasting of water table rise by more than 30%, based on 10 years of data. At the 11 sites studied, the water table is generally least responsive to rainfall at smallest and largest rainfall event sizes and at lower stages. At most sites the minimum amount of rainfall required to induce a rise in water table is fairly uniform when the water table is within 50 to 100 cm of land surface. Below this depth, the minimum typically gradually increases with depth. These observations can be qualitatively explained by unsaturated zone flow processes. Overall, response/rainfall ratios are higher in wetlands and lower in uplands, presumably reflecting lower specific yields and greater lateral influx in wetland sites. Pronounced depth variations in rainfall/response ratios appear to correlate with soil layer boundaries, where corroborating data are available. PMID:22834892

  11. Predicting Anthropogenic Noise Contributions to US Waters.

    PubMed

    Gedamke, Jason; Ferguson, Megan; Harrison, Jolie; Hatch, Leila; Henderson, Laurel; Porter, Michael B; Southall, Brandon L; Van Parijs, Sofie

    2016-01-01

    To increase understanding of the potential effects of chronic underwater noise in US waters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) organized two working groups in 2011, collectively called "CetSound," to develop tools to map the density and distribution of cetaceans (CetMap) and predict the contribution of human activities to underwater noise (SoundMap). The SoundMap effort utilized data on density, distribution, acoustic signatures of dominant noise sources, and environmental descriptors to map estimated temporal, spatial, and spectral contributions to background noise. These predicted soundscapes are an initial step toward assessing chronic anthropogenic noise impacts on the ocean's varied acoustic habitats and the animals utilizing them. PMID:26610977

  12. Models to predict water chemical cluster variables

    SciTech Connect

    Hakanson, L.

    1994-10-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify and rank variables of significance to predict mean values of lake pH and related variables (alkalinity, conductivity, hardness, etc.) in small glacial lakes. The work is based on a new and extensive set of data from 95 Swedish lakes and their catchment areas. Several empirical models based on catchment and lake morphometric parameters have been presented. These empirical models can only be used to predict mean values of these variables for lakes of the same type, and these models based on {open_quotes}geological{close_quotes} map parameters can evidently not be used for highly time-dependent and site-typical predictions. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating the mean values of the cluster variables were formulated and tested. Different statistical tests were used to separate random influences from causal. The most important {open_quotes}map parameters{close_quotes} were: the percent of rocks and open (=cultivated) land in the so-called near area to the lake [as determined with the drainage area zonation (DAZ) method], mean depth, linked to resuspension and the form and size of lakes, relief of the drainage area and lake area. Each of these variables only provides a limited degree of (statistical) explanation of the variability in mean annual values of pH and the water chemical cluster variables among the lakes. The predictability of some of the models can be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area. The variability in mean annual values of pH (and related variables) from other parameters, such as specific anthropogenic load, etc., may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these {open_quotes}geological{close_quotes} parameters. This paper also gives a simple method to estimate natural, preindustrial reference values of these water chemical variables from the presented models. 39 refs., 21 figs., 12 tabs.

  13. Models to predict water chemical cluster variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Håkanson, L.

    1994-10-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify and rank variables of significance to predict mean values of lake pH and related variables (alkalinity, conductivity, hardness, etc.) in small glacial lakes. The work is based on a new and extensive set of data from 95 Swedish lakes and their catchment areas. Several empirical models based on catchment and lake morphometric parameters have been presented. These empirical models can only be used to predict mean values of these variables for lakes of the same type, and these models based on “geological” map parameters can evidently not be used for highly time-dependent and site-typical predictions. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating the mean values of the cluster variables were formulated and tested. Different statistical tests were used to separate random influences from causal. The most important “map parameters” were: the percent of rocks and open (=cultivated) land in the so-called near area to the lake [as determined with the drainage area zonation (DAZ) method], mean depth, linked to resuspension and the form and size of lakes, relief of the drainage area and lake area. Each of these variables only provides a limited degree of (statistical) explanation of the variability in mean annual values of pH and the water chemical cluster variables among the lakes. The predictability of some of the models can be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area. The variability in mean annual values of pH (and related variables) from other parameters, such as specific anthropogenic load, etc., may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these “geological” parameters. This paper also gives a simple method to estimate natural, preindustrial reference values of these water chemical variables from the presented models.

  14. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1975

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goemaat, Robert L.

    1977-01-01

    The objectives of the observation-well program are (1) to provide long-term records of water-level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the prediction of water-level trends and indicate the future availability of ground-water supplies, and (3) to provide information for use in basic research. These selected records serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data may be related. The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those of the U.S. Geological Survey.

  15. Quantifying and Predicting Outdoor Water Use in Los Angeles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2012-12-01

    Residential water consumption is the largest urban water user and represents the largest potential for conservation according to a peer-reviewed study by the Pacific Institute in California (2003). Outdoor water use represents a large percentage of the residential water budget but significant uncertainties are associated with current estimates and predictive models. The objectives of the current study are to analyze the spatial and temporal trends in outdoor use, determine correlations to climate and vegetation patterns, and establish key drivers of outdoor use in Los Angeles. Monthly individual water use records were acquired from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for the 2000 to 2010 period. Indoor use was estimated at the census tract level using a range of established models; with outdoor use then calculated as the residual between total and indoor use. The comparison of different estimates at the census tract level reveals significant variability between commonly-used outdoor use methods. Two of the Pacific Institute methods show that outdoor use percentages vary from 7%-10% to 60%-67% of total residential water use at the tract level across the City. A third tested method, based on average household size to model indoor use, presents a broader range of results, with outdoor use ranging from 2% to 93% of total water use. Climate variables, property characteristics as well as remotely-sensed vegetation indices and evapotranspiration estimates were also collected and aggregated at the census tract level for the same period. A linear regression model was developed using these variables to identify the key predictors of outdoor use for the study area. The residual and regression model estimates will serve to validate the development of a biophysical model including tree and grass cover areas, climate variables and high resolution evapotranspiration estimates. Ultimately, models will be used for predictions for a range of future climate and landscape scenarios. Finally, project results will inform water managers to implement efficient landscaping irrigation conservation strategies part of an integrated water resources management plan for sustainable regional water supply system in Southern California.

  16. Modeling Tidal Water Levels for Canadian Coastal and Offshore waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robin, C. M. I.; MacAulay, P.; Nudds, S.; Godin, A.; de Lange Boom, B.; Bartlett, J.; Maltais, L.; Herron, T.; Craymer, M. R.; Veronneau, M.; Fadaie, K.

    2014-12-01

    IIn 2010, the Canadian Hydrographic Service initiated the Continuous Vertical Datum for Canadian Waters (CVDCW) project, the aim of which is to connect tidal water level datums (high and low water levels, chart datum, etc.) to a national geodetic reference frame over all Canadian tidal waters. Currently, water level datums are tied to a geodetic reference frame at approximately 400 tide stations which have been surveyed with GPS, whereas water levels vary significantly in space even a short distance away from tide stations. The CVDCW captures the relevant spatial variability between stations and offshore by integrating ocean models, gauge data (water level analyses and/or GPS observations), sea level trends, satellite altimetry, and a geoid model. The CVDCW will enable the use of Global Navigation Satellite System technologies (primarily GPS) for hydrographers and navigators. It will also be important for other users including oceanographers, environmental and climate scientists, surveyors and engineers. For instance, it will allow easier integration of hydrographic and terrestrial data, provide a baseline for storm surge modeling and climate change adaptation, and aid with practical issues such as sovereignty and the definition of the coastline. Once high and low water surfaces are complete, they will define a large portion of the vertical link between land and ocean, helping to delineate flooding thresholds and inter-tidal ecosystem zones and boundaries. Here we present an overview of the methodology using a set of prototype model results, and will outline features of interest for studies in coastal stability, climate change adaptation, and sea level change.

  17. Reading Ground Water Levels with a Smartphone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Overloop, Peter-Jules

    2015-04-01

    Most ground water levels in the world are measured manually. It requires employees of water management organizations to visit sites in the field and execute a measurement procedure that requires special tools and training. Once the measurement is done, the value is jotted down in a notebook and later, at the office, entered in a computer system. This procedure is slow and prone to human errors. A new development is the introduction of modern Information and Communication Technology to support this task and make it more efficient. Two innovations are introduced to measure and immediately store ground water levels. The first method is a measuring tape that gives a sound and light when it just touches the water in combination with an app on a smartphone with which a picture needs to be taken from the measuring tape. Using dedicated pattern recognition algorithms, the depth is read on the tape and it is verified if the light is on. The second method estimates the depth using a sound from the smartphone that is sent into the borehole and records the reflecting waves in the pipe. Both methods use gps-localization of the smartphone to store the depths in the right location in the central database, making the monitoring of ground water levels a real-time process that eliminates human errors.

  18. Trihalomethanes formation in Iranian water supply systems: predicting and modeling.

    PubMed

    Babaei, Ali Akbar; Atari, Leila; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Ahmadiangali, Kambiz; Zamanzadeh, Mirzaman; Alavi, Nadali

    2015-09-01

    Trihalomethanes (THMs) were the first disinfection by-products discovered in drinking water and are classified as probable carcinogens. This study measures and models THMs formation at two drinking water distribution systems (WDS1 and WDS2) in Ahvaz City, Iran. The investigation was based on field-scale investigations and an intensive 36-week sampling program, from January to September 2011. The results showed total THM concentrations in the range 17.4-174.8 μg/L and 18.9-99.5 μg/L in WDS1 and WDS2, respectively. Except in a few cases, the THM concentrations in WDS1 and WDS2 were lower than the maximum contaminant level values. Using two-tailed Pearson correlation test, the water temperature, dissolved organic carbon, UV254, bromide ion (Br-), free residual chlorine, and chlorine dose were identified as the significant parameters for THMs formation in WDS2. Water temperature was the only significant parameter for THMs formation in WDS1. Based on the correlation results, a predictive model for THMs formation was developed using a multiple regression approach. A multiple linear regression model showed the best fit according to the coefficients of determination (R2) obtained for WDS1 (R2=0.47) and WDS2 (R2=0.54). Further correlation studies and analysis focusing on THMs formation are necessary to assess THMs concentration using the predictive models. PMID:26322772

  19. Hydro static water level systems at Fermilab

    SciTech Connect

    Volk, J.T.; Guerra, J.A.; Hansen, S.U.; Kiper, T.E.; Jostlein, H.; Shiltsev, V.; Chupyra, A.; Kondaurov, M.; Singatulin, S.

    2006-09-01

    Several Hydrostatic Water Leveling systems (HLS) are in use at Fermilab. Three systems are used to monitor quadrupoles in the Tevatron and two systems are used to monitor ground motion for potential sites for the International Linear Collider (ILC). All systems use capacitive sensors to determine the water level of water in a pool. These pools are connected with tubing so that relative vertical shifts between sensors can be determined. There are low beta quadrupoles at the B0 and D0 interaction regions of Tevatron accelerator. These quadrupoles use BINP designed and built sensors and have a resolution of 1 micron. All regular lattice superconducting quadrupoles (a total of 204) in the Tevatron use a Fermilab designed system and have a resolution of 6 microns. Data on quadrupole motion due to quenches, changes in temperature will be presented. In addition data for ground motion for ILC studies caused by natural and cultural factors will be presented.

  20. Predicting Students' Homework Environment Management at the Secondary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2012-01-01

    The present study examined empirical models of variables posited to predict students' homework environment management at the secondary school level. The participants were 866 8th graders from 61 classes and 745 11th graders from 46 classes. Most of the variance in homework environment management occurred at the student level, with classmates'…

  1. Predicting high levels of multitasking reduces between-tasks interactions.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Rico; Dreisbach, Gesine

    2015-12-01

    The simultaneous handling of 2 tasks requires shielding of the prioritized primary task (T1) from interference caused by the secondary task (T2) processing. Such interactions between tasks (e.g., between-task interference, or crosstalk) depend on the similarity of both tasks and are especially pronounced when both tasks overlap strongly in time. In the present study we investigated whether between-tasks interference can be reduced when specific items do not predict the level of interference but instead the degree of temporal proximity between both tasks. We implemented an item-specific proportion manipulation of temporal task overlap (stimulus onset asynchrony [SOA]). Selected stimuli of T1 predicted high temporal task overlap (short SOAs) in 80% of trials, whereas other stimuli of T1 predicted low temporal task overlap (long SOAs) in 80% of trials. Results showed that the predictive value of T1 stimuli determined the adjustment of T1 shielding. That is, interference from the secondary task was significantly reduced for items predicting high temporal task overlap compared to items predicting low temporal task overlap. It is important to note that task shielding was not initiated by predicting the actual conflict level (i.e., whether T1 and T2 required compatible/incompatible responses) between tasks but by specific items predicting conditions in which 2 tasks are likely to interact (i.e., short vs. long SOA). These findings offer new insights into the specificity of contextual bottom-up regulations of cognitive control. PMID:26480246

  2. Development and evaluation of a water level proportional water sampler

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, P.; Lange, A.; Doppler, T.

    2013-12-01

    We developed and adapted a new type of sampler for time-integrated, water level proportional water quality sampling (e.g. nutrients, contaminants and stable isotopes). Our samplers are designed for sampling small to mid-size streams based on the law of Hagen-Poiseuille, where a capillary (or a valve) limits the sampling aliquot by reducing the air flux out of a submersed plastic (HDPE) sampling container. They are good alternatives to battery-operated automated water samplers when working in remote areas, or at streams that are characterized by pronounced daily discharge variations such as glacier streams. We evaluated our samplers against standard automated water samplers (ISCO 2900 and ISCO 6712) during the snowmelt in the Black Forest and the Alps and tested them in remote glacial catchments in Iceland, Switzerland and Kyrgyzstan. The results clearly showed that our samplers are an adequate tool for time-integrated, water level proportional water sampling at remote test sites, as they do not need batteries, are relatively inexpensive, lightweight, and compact. They are well suited for headwater streams - especially when sampling for stable isotopes - as the sampled water is perfectly protected against evaporation. Moreover, our samplers have a reduced risk of icing in cold environments, as they are installed submersed in water, whereas automated samplers (typically installed outside the stream) may get clogged due to icing of hoses. Based on this study, we find these samplers to be an adequate replacement for automated samplers when time-integrated sampling or solute load estimates are the main monitoring tasks.

  3. How Temperature and Water levels affect Polar Mesospheric Cloud Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. L.; Randall, C. E.; Harvey, V.

    2012-12-01

    Using the Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument data, which is part of the Aeronomy in the Mesosphere (AIM) mission, we compare the albedo and ice water content measurements of CIPS with the Navy Operation Global Atmospheric Prediction System - Advanced Level Phyiscs and High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) temperature and water vapor data in order to derive a greater understanding of cloud formation and physics. We particularly focus on data from June 2007 and July 2007 in this case study because of particular cloud structures and formations during this time period for future studies.

  4. iCOLT: Seasonal prediction of water irrigation need in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavan, Valentina; Villani, Giulia; Spisni, Andrea; Pratizzoli, William; Tomei, Fausto; Botarelli, Lucio; Marletto, Vittorio

    2015-04-01

    Mediterranean regions are frequently exposed to water scarcity and an early assessment of the potential water requirements from summer crops is very important for water management at regional and Reclamation Consortia level. Since 2007, ARPA-SIMC has developed the operational climate service iColt (irrigazione e Classificazione delle cOLture in atto tramite Telerilevamento - irrigation and classification of crops by remote sensing), in order to monitor and predict potential water needs for crop irrigation at different geographical scales. iColt has three components: a) a classification of crops through a set of satellite images acquired at different phenological stages; b) calibrated multi-model ensemble seasonal predictions of climate indices, using as input the EUROSIP products; c) a crop water balance prediction by the model CRITERIA. The climate indices are predicted as input for a weather generator to produce an ensemble of daily meteorological time-series. The meteorological series together with the regional distribution of crops, classified by remote sensing, are used by the water balance and crop development model CRITERIA to assess the crop potential water requirement at geographical level during the following summer. CRITERIA includes an empirical model for computing the shallow water table through spring (observed ) and summer (predicted) meteorological data. The water requirements predictions are verified at the end of summer by forcing the water balance model using the observed meteorological data. The results obtained from 2011 to 2014 are described and show that the operational service has a better skill than the seasonal ensemble prediction products used as input. In all the years, the sign of the irrigation water requirements anomaly has been correctly forecasted. Furthermore, the system has shown to be able to capture the spatial variability of the predicted field. These encouraging results are thought to be due partly to the correct initialization of the shallow water table level, both in time and space, and partly to a good evaluation of the geographical distribution of crop classes with different water needs.

  5. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltrat...

  6. Predictive Monitoring for Improved Management of Glucose Levels

    PubMed Central

    Reifman, Jaques; Rajaraman, Srinivasan; Gribok, Andrei; Ward, W. Kenneth

    2007-01-01

    Background Recent developments and expected near-future improvements in continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide opportunities to couple them with mathematical forecasting models to produce predictive monitoring systems for early, proactive glycemia management of diabetes mellitus patients before glucose levels drift to undesirable levels. This article assesses the feasibility of data-driven models to serve as the forecasting engine of predictive monitoring systems. Methods We investigated the capabilities of data-driven autoregressive (AR) models to (1) capture the correlations in glucose time-series data, (2) make accurate predictions as a function of prediction horizon, and (3) be made portable from individual to individual without any need for model tuning. The investigation is performed by employing CGM data from nine type 1 diabetic subjects collected over a continuous 5-day period. Results With CGM data serving as the gold standard, AR model-based predictions of glucose levels assessed over nine subjects with Clarke error grid analysis indicated that, for a 30-minute prediction horizon, individually tuned models yield 97.6 to 100.0% of data in the clinically acceptable zones A and B, whereas cross-subject, portable models yield 95.8 to 99.7% of data in zones A and B. Conclusions This study shows that, for a 30-minute prediction horizon, data-driven AR models provide sufficiently-accurate and clinically-acceptable estimates of glucose levels for timely, proactive therapy and should be considered as the modeling engine for predictive monitoring of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. It also suggests that AR models can be made portable from individual to individual with minor performance penalties, while greatly reducing the burden associated with model tuning and data collection for model development. PMID:19885110

  7. GNSS-Reflectometry based water level monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckheinrich, Jamila; Schön, Steffen; Beyerle, Georg; Apel, Heiko; Semmling, Maximilian; Wickert, Jens

    2013-04-01

    Due to climate changing conditions severe changes in the Mekong delta in Vietnam have been recorded in the last years. The goal of the German Vietnamese WISDOM (Water-related Information system for the Sustainable Development Of the Mekong Delta) project is to build an information system to support and assist the decision makers, planners and authorities for an optimized water and land management. One of WISDOM's tasks is the flood monitoring of the Mekong delta. Earth reflected L-band signals from the Global Navigation Satellite System show a high reflectivity on water and ice surfaces or on wet soil so that GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) could contribute to monitor the water level in the main streams of the Mekong delta complementary to already existing monitoring networks. In principle, two different GNSS-R methods exist: the code- and the phase-based one. As the latter being more accurate, a new generation of GORS (GNSS Occultation, Reflectometry and Scatterometry) JAVAD DELTA GNSS receiver has been developed with the aim to extract precise phase observations. In a two week lasting measurement campaign, the receiver has been tested and several reflection events at the 150-200 m wide Can Tho river in Vietnam have been recorded. To analyze the geometrical impact on the quantity and quality of the reflection traces two different antennas height were tested. To track separately the direct and the reflected signal, two antennas were used. To derive an average height of the water level, for a 15 min observation interval, a phase model has been developed. Combined with the coherent observations, the minimum slope has been calculated based on the Least- Squares method. As cycle slips and outliers will impair the results, a preprocessing of the data has been performed. A cycle slip detection strategy that allows for automatic detection, identification and correction is proposed. To identify outliers, the data snooping method developed by Baarda 1968 is used. In this context, issues related to the stochastic modeling of GPS observations are addressed and a first model is proposed. First results of water level derivation with precisions below decimeter level are presented. These results could then be used as an approximation for the next computation step: the ambiguities fixing.

  8. Enhanced water level model in image classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Shangrong; Qian, Kai; Hung, Chih-Cheng

    2005-05-01

    Water-Level model is an effective method in density-based classification. We use biased sampling, local similarity and popularity as preprocessing, and employ a merging operation in the water-level model for classification. Biased sampling is to get some information about the global structure. Similarity and local density are mainly used to understand the local structure. In biased sampling, images are divided into many l x l patches and a sample pixel is selected from each patch. Similarity at a point p, denoted by sim(p), measures the change of gray level between point p and its neighborhood N(p). Besides using biased sampling to combine spectral and spatial information, we use similarity and local popularity in selecting sample points. A sample point is chosen based on the minimum value of sim(p) + [1-P(p)] after normalization. The selected pixel is a better representative, especially near the border of an object. To make it more effective, one has to deal with small spikes and bumps. To get rid of the small spikes, we establish a threshold |[f(P1)-f(P2)]*(P1-P2)| > c*l*l , where c is a constant, P1 is a local maximum point to be tested and P2 is the nearest local minimum from P1. The condition is only related to the size of the patches l*l. The merging operation we include in the model makes the threshold constant less sensitive in the process. DBScan is combined with the enhanced water level model to reduce noise and to get connected components. Preliminary experiments have been conducted using the proposed methods and the results are promising.

  9. Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntosh, Peter C.; Church, John A.; Miles, Elaine R.; Ridgway, Ken; Spillman, Claire M.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level varies on a range of time scales from tidal to decadal and centennial change. To date, little attention has been focussed on the prediction of interannual sea level anomalies. Here we demonstrate that forecasts of coastal sea level anomalies from the dynamical Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) have significant skill throughout the equatorial Pacific and along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Indian Oceans at lead times out to 8 months. POAMA forecasts for the western Pacific generally have greater skill than persistence, particularly at longer lead times. POAMA also has comparable or greater skill than previously published statistical forecasts from both a Markov model and canonical correlation analysis. Our results indicate the capability of physically based models to address the challenge of providing skillful forecasts of seasonal sea level fluctuations for coastal communities over a broad area and at a range of lead times.

  10. Hydrostatic Water Level Systems At Homestake DUSEL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    Two arrays of Fermilab-style hydrostatic water level sensors have been installed in the former Homestake gold mine in Lead, SD, the site of the new Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL). Sensors were constructed at Fermilab from 8.5 cm diameter PVC pipe (housing) that was sealed on the ends and fit with a proximity sensor. The instrument have a height of 10 cm. Two ports in each sensor housing provide for connectivity, the upper port for air and the bottom port for water. Multiple instruments connected in series provide a precise water level and differences in readings between successive sensors provide for ground tilt to be resolved. Sensor resolution is 5 μm per count and has a range of approximately 1.25 cm. Data output from each sensor is relayed to a Fermilab-constructed readout card that also has temperature/relative humidity and barometric pressure sensors connected. All data are relayed out of the mine by fiber optic cable and can be recorded by Ethernet at remote locations. The current arrays have been installed on the 2000-ft level (610 m) and consist of six instruments in each array. Three sensors were placed in a N-S oriented drift and three in an E-W oriented drift. Using this orientation, it is anticipated that tilt direction may be resolved in addition to overall tilt magnitude. To date the data show passage of earth tides and frequency analysis has revealed five components to this signal, three associated with the semi-diurnal (~12.4 hr) and two with the diurnal (~24.9 hr) tides. Currently, installation methods are being analyzed between concrete pillar and rib-mounting using the existing setup on the 2000-ft level. Using these results, two additional arrays of Fermilab instruments will be installed on the 4550-ft and 4850-ft levels (1387 and 1478 m, respectively). In addition to Fermilab instruments, several high resolution Budker tiltmeters (1 μm resolution) will be installed in the mine workings in the near future, some correlated to Fermilab instruments (for comparative analysis) and others in independent arrays. All tiltmeter data will be analyzed with water reduction data (currently being collected from the #6 winze as the mine is dewatered) and data from rock stress/fracture experiments to document net ground settling due to dewatering, potential collapse of stope areas and renewed excavation activities.

  11. AUTOMATED WATER LEVEL MEASUREMENTS IN SMALL-DIAMETER AQUIFER TUBES

    SciTech Connect

    PETERSEN SW; EDRINGTON RS; MAHOOD RO; VANMIDDLESWORTH PE

    2011-01-14

    Groundwater contaminated with hexavalent chromium, strontium-90, and uranium discharges into the Columbia River along approximately 16 km (10 mi) of the shoreline. Various treatment systems have and will continue to be implemented to eliminate the impact of Hanford Site contamination to the river. To optimize the various remediation strategies, it is important to understand interactions between groundwater and the surface water of the Columbia River. An automated system to record water levels in aquifer sampling tubes installed in the hyporheic zone was designed and tested to (1) gain a more complete understanding of groundwater/river water interactions based on gaining and losing conditions ofthe Columbia River, (2) record and interpret data for consistent and defensible groundwater/surface water conceptual models that may be used to better predict subsurface contaminant fate and transport, and (3) evaluate the hydrodynamic influence of extraction wells in an expanded pump-and-treat system to optimize the treatment system. A system to measure water levels in small-diameter aquifer tubes was designed and tested in the laboratory and field. The system was configured to allow manual measurements to periodically calibrate the instrument and to permit aquifer tube sampling without removing the transducer tube. Manual measurements were collected with an e-tape designed and fabricated especially for this test. Results indicate that the transducer system accurately records groundwater levels in aquifer tubes. These data are being used to refine the conceptual and numeric models to better understand interactions in the hyporheic zone of the Columbia River and the adjacent river water and groundwater, and changes in hydrochemistry relative to groundwater flux as river water recharges the aquifer and then drains back out in response to changes in the river level.

  12. Water levels shape fishing participation in flood-control reservoirs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Meals, K. O.

    2013-01-01

    We examined the relationship between fishing effort (hours fished) and average March–May water level in 3 flood control reservoirs in Mississippi. Fishing effort increased as water level rose, peaked at intermediate water levels, and decreased at high water levels. We suggest that the observed arched-shaped relationship is driven by the shifting influence of fishability (adequacy of the fishing circumstances from an angler's perspective) and catch rate along a water level continuum. Fishability reduces fishing effort during low water, despite the potential for higher catch rates. Conversely, reduced catch rates and fishability at high water also curtail effort. Thus, both high and low water levels seem to discourage fishing effort, whereas anglers seem to favor intermediate water levels. Our results have implications for water level management in reservoirs with large water level fluctuations.

  13. Decline in water level boosts cyanobacteria dominance in subtropical reservoirs.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jun; Lv, Hong; Yang, Jun; Liu, Lemian; Yu, Xiaoqing; Chen, Huihuang

    2016-07-01

    Globally aquatic ecosystems are likely to become more vulnerable to extreme water fluctuation rates due to the combined effects of climate change and human activity. However, relatively little is known about the importance of water level fluctuations (WLF) as a predictor of phytoplankton community shifts in subtropical reservoirs. In this study, we used one year of data (2010-2011) from four subtropical reservoirs of southeast China to quantify the effects of WLF and other environmental variables on phytoplankton and cyanobacteria dynamics. The reservoirs showed an apparent switch between a turbid state dominated by cyanobacteria and a clear state dominated by other non-cyanobacterial taxa (e.g., diatoms, green algae). Cyanobacterial dominance decreased, or increased, following marked changes in water level. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that pH, euphotic depth, WLF, and total phosphorus provided the best model and explained 30.8% of the variance in cyanobacteria biomass. Path analysis showed that positive WLF (i.e. an increase in water level) can reduce the cyanobacteria biomass either directly by a dilution effect or indirectly by modifying the limnological conditions of the reservoirs in complex pathways. To control the risk of cyanobacterial dominance or blooms, WLF should be targeted to be above +2m/month; that is an increase in water level of 2m or more. Given that WLF is likely to be of more frequent occurrence under future predicted conditions of climate variability and human activity, water level management can be widely used in small and medium-sized reservoirs to prevent the toxic cyanobacterial blooms and to protect the ecosystem integrity or functions. PMID:27016690

  14. The response of mire vegetation to water level drawdown

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurki, Kirsi; Laine, Jukka; Vasander, Harri; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina

    2010-05-01

    Mires have a significant role in climate change mitigation due to their enormous carbon storage and due to the fluxes of greenhouse gases between ecosystem and the atmosphere. Mire vegetation is controlled by ecohydrology, climate and by the competition of plants on light and nutrients. The water logged conditions create a challenging environment for both vascular plants and bryophytes; therefore majority of plants growing in these habitats are highly specialized. Global warming is predicted to affect mire vegetation indirectly through increased evapotranspiration leading to decreased water table levels down to 14-22 centimeters. Water level drawdown is likely to affect the vegetation composition and consequently the ecosystem functioning of mires. Previous studies covering the first years following water table level drawdown have shown that vascular plants benefit from a lower water table and hollow-specific Sphagnum species suffer. In addition to changes in plant abundances the diversity of plant communities decreases. The lawn and hollow communities of Sphagna and sedges are found to be the most sensitive plant groups. It has been shown that surveys on vegetation changes can have different results depending on the time scale. The short and long term responses are likely vary in heterogenous mire vegetation; therefore predictions can be done more reliably with longer surveys. We applied BACI (before-after-control-impact) experimental approach to study the responses of different functional mire plant groups to water level drawdown. There are 3 control plots, 3 treatment plots with moderate water level drawdown and 3 plots drained for forestry 40 years ago as a reference. The plots are located in meso-, oligo- and ombrotrophic sites in Lakkasuo (Orivesi, Finland). The vegetation was surveyed from permanent sampling points before ditching in 2000 and during the years 2001-2003 and 2009. The data was analyzed with NMDS (PC-Ord) and DCA (CANOCO). Overall results show that the control and treatment plots were similar before the treatment which is crucial in studies conducted with BACI- experimental design. The vegetation composition in the varied between the years also in the control plots following variation in weather conditions, i.e., growing season temperature and precipitation. The year 2003 stood out with lowest water table levels and with highest coverage of the evergreen vascular plants in all plots. By 2009 there was a dramatic decrease in sedge species cover. There seems to be more changes in bryophyte cover in mesotrophic sites than in ombrotrophic ones. Especially lawn-specific Sphagnum responded to water level drawdown. To quantify the impact of water level drawdown for different plant groups we used Principal Response Curves (CANOCO). Results show that all plant groups have a different short and long term response to water level drawdown. The first three years after ditching appeared to be a disturbance state. Only after that the vegetation started to adapt to the lowered water table conditions.

  15. PREDICTING WATER QUALITY IN DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The quality of a public water supply although acceptable when it leaves the treatment plant, may deteriorate before it reaches the user. Deterioration may be caused by either chemical or biological transformations or by a loss of system integrity. There have been a growing number...

  16. Water Impact Prediction Tool for Recoverable Rockets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rooker, William; Glaese, John; Clayton, Joe

    2011-01-01

    Reusing components from a rocket launch can be cost saving. NASA's space shuttle system has reusable components that return to the Earth and impact the ocean. A primary example is the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) that descends on parachutes to the Earth after separation and impacts the ocean. Water impact generates significant structural loads that can damage the booster, so it is important to study this event in detail in the design of the recovery system. Some recent examples of damage due to water impact include the Ares I-X First Stage deformation as seen in Figure 1 and the loss of the SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage.To ensure that a component can be recovered or that the design of the recovery system is adequate, an adequate set of structural loads is necessary for use in failure assessments. However, this task is difficult since there are many conditions that affect how a component impacts the water and the resulting structural loading that a component sees. These conditions include the angle of impact with respect to the water, the horizontal and vertical velocities, the rotation rate, the wave height and speed, and many others. There have been attempts to simulate water impact. One approach is to analyze water impact using explicit finite element techniques such as those employed by the LS-Dyna tool [1]. Though very detailed, this approach is time consuming and would not be suitable for running Monte Carlo or optimization analyses. The purpose of this paper is to describe a multi-body simulation tool that runs quickly and that captures the environments a component might see. The simulation incorporates the air and water interaction with the component, the component dynamics (i.e. modes and mode shapes), any applicable parachutes and lines, the interaction of winds and gusts, and the wave height and speed. It is capable of quickly conducting Monte Carlo studies to better capture the environments and genetic algorithm optimizations to reproduce a flight.

  17. County-Level Crop Yield Prediction Using Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagstaff, K. L.; Roper, A.; Lane, T.

    2007-12-01

    Early estimates of crop yield, particularly at a fine scale, can inform precision agriculture efforts. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) currently provides estimates of yield on a monthly basis for each state. These estimates are based on phone interviews with farmers and in-situ examination of randomly selected plots. We seek to provide predictions at a much higher spatial resolution, on a more frequent basis, using remote sensing observations. We use publicly available data from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on the Aqua and Terra spacecraft. These observations have a spatial resolution of 250 m and consist of two spectral bands (red and infra-red) with a repeat period of 8 days. As part of the HARVIST (Heterogeneous Agricultural Research Via Interactive, Scalable Technology) project, we have created statistical crop yield models using historical MODIS data combined with the per-county yield reported by the USDA at the end of the growing season. In our approach, we analyze 100 randomly selected historical pixels from each county to generate a yield prediction for the county as a whole. We construct a time series for each pixel that consists of its NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) value observed during each 8-day time period to date. We then cluster all pixels together to identify groups of distinct elements (different crops, bodies of water, urban areas, desert, etc.) and create a regression model for each one. For each crop of interest, the model that best predicts that crop's historical yield is selected. These models can then be applied to data from subsequent years to generate predictions for the future. We applied this approach to data from California and Kansas for corn and wheat. We found that, in general, the yield prediction error decreased as the harvest time approached. In California, distinctly different models were selected to predict corn and wheat, permitting specialization for each crop type. The best models from 2001 predicted yield for 2002 with a 10% (corn) and 23% (wheat) relative error three months before harvest. In Kansas, the 2001 models for corn and wheat were not well distinguished, providing good predictions for wheat (19% error three months before harvest) but poor predictions for corn (55% error three months before harvest). In post-analysis, we found that the 2001 pixel NDVI time series for Kansas are much more homogeneous than those for California, making it difficult to select crop-specific models. We are currently working on incorporating historical data from additional years, which will provide more diversity and potentially better predictions. We are also in the process of applying this technique to additional crops.

  18. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1963-64

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, P.R.

    1965-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1963-64), is the third of a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 5-year period of (1956-60). The second report, published in 1964, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1961-62.) (available as photostat copy only)

  19. Water nanodroplets: predictions of five model potentials.

    PubMed

    Kazachenko, Sergey; Thakkar, Ajit J

    2013-05-21

    Putative global minima for five intermolecular potential energy models are reported for water clusters (H2O)n with n ≤ 55. The models studied include three empirical, pairwise-additive potential energy surfaces, TIP4P, TIP4P-Ew, and TIP4P/2005, which use fixed point charges and rigid monomers. The other two, TTM2.1-F and AMOEBA, are polarizable, include non-additive inductive effects, have flexible monomers, and were parametrized, at least partially, using ab initio data. The n = 51 cluster has the same structure and is exceptionally stable for all five potentials. A structured inner core can be seen in cage clusters with n > 37. Periplanar rings, branched rings, and coils are among the structural motifs of the inner core. PMID:23697413

  20. PTSD symptoms predict waking salivary cortisol levels in police officers.

    PubMed

    Neylan, Thomas C; Brunet, Alain; Pole, Nnamdi; Best, Suzanne R; Metzler, Thomas J; Yehuda, Rachel; Marmar, Charles R

    2005-05-01

    This study examines whether pre- or post-dexamethasone salivary cortisol is related to cumulative critical incident exposure, peritraumatic responses, or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity. Thirty active duty police officers completed the study protocol, which included measures of peritraumatic emotional distress, peritraumatic dissociation, duty-related trauma exposure, and PTSD symptoms. Salivary cortisol was consolidated into three outcome variables: (1) pre-dexamethasone free cortisol levels at 1, 30, 45, and 60 min after awakening, (2) post-dexamethasone cortisol levels at the identical wake times, and (3) percentage of cortisol suppression. Control variables included age, gender, average daily alcohol use, night shift work, routine work environment stressors, and salivary dexamethasone levels. Zero order correlations showed that greater levels of PTSD symptoms, peritraumatic distress, and peritraumatic dissociation were associated with lower levels of pre-dexamethasone cortisol levels on awakening, but were not associated with the other two cortisol variables. A trend was also noted for older subjects to have lower pre-dexamethasone cortisol on awakening. When these four predictors were entered simultaneously in a regression analysis, only age and PTSD symptom severity significantly predicted pre-dexamethasone awakening cortisol levels. These results replicate previous research indicating a relationship between greater PTSD symptoms and lower levels of basal cortisol on awakening, and extend this finding to a previously unstudied non-treatment seeking population, urban police. PMID:15694117

  1. Water Habitat Study: Prediction Makes It More Meaningful.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasgow, Dennis R.

    1982-01-01

    Suggests a teaching strategy for water habitat studies to help students make a meaningful connection between physiochemical data (dissolved oxygen content, pH, and water temperature) and biological specimens they collect. Involves constructing a poster and using it to make predictions. Provides sample poster. (DC)

  2. Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model (TBWCM): As a Predictive Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Tampa Bay Water Clarity Model was developed as a predictive tool for estimating the impact of changing nutrient loads on water clarity as measured by secchi depth. The model combines a physical mixing model with an irradiance model and nutrient cycling model. A 10 segment bi...

  3. Investigation of the Relationship among Rainfall, Unsaturated Water Pressure and Ground Water Level Using Grey System Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, C.; Cheng, C.; Ke, T.; Wen, J.

    2008-12-01

    Rainfall is infiltrated through the surface into the vadose zone and induces the variation of the ground water level. However, the hydrological system of the rainfall infiltration is complex. How to establish the relationship between the rainfall and variation of the ground water level becomes an important topic. In this study, the grey system theory is utilized to investigate the relationship among rainfall, unsaturated water pressure and ground water level. First, the grey relational analysis among ground water level, rainfall and unsaturated water pressure are performed. Six different depths of unsaturated water pressure are used for the grey relational analysis and the depth with the optimal grey relational grade is obtained. Then the GM(1,3) model is established based on sequences of ground water level, rainfall and unsaturated water pressure in the depth with the optimal grey relational grade. Second, the GM(1,2) model is established only using the sequences of ground water level and rainfall data. The comparison of the GM(1,2) and the GM(1,3) models are performed to assess the accuracy of ground water level forecast. Finally, the concept of the time lag is used to reestablish the grey models GM(1,2) and GM(1,3) and predict the variation of ground water level. The results show that the GM(1,3) model has the higher accuracy than the GM(1,2) model for ground water level forecast. The optimal time lag is equal to 23 hours in the study site. The accuracy of the ground water level forecast is higher in the GM(1,3) model with the time lag than the one without it. Keywords:Grey system theory, Ground water level, Rainfall, Unsaturated water pressure.

  4. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1961-62

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, P.R.; Moeller, M.D.

    1964-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; and (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1960-62), is the second of a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 5-year period of (1956-60). (available as photostat copy only)

  5. Robust predictive modelling of water pollution using biomarker data.

    PubMed

    Budka, Marcin; Gabrys, Bogdan; Ravagnan, Elisa

    2010-05-01

    This paper describes the methodology of building a predictive model for the purpose of marine pollution monitoring, based on low quality biomarker data. A step-by-step, systematic data analysis approach is presented, resulting in design of a purely data-driven model, able to accurately discriminate between various coastal water pollution levels. The environmental scientists often try to apply various machine learning techniques to their data without much success, mostly because of the lack of experience with different methods and required 'under the hood' knowledge. Thus this paper is a result of a collaboration between the machine learning and environmental science communities, presenting a predictive model development workflow, as well as discussing and addressing potential pitfalls and difficulties. The novelty of the modelling approach presented lays in successful application of machine learning techniques to high dimensional, incomplete biomarker data, which to our knowledge has not been done before and is the result of close collaboration between machine learning and environmental science communities. PMID:20362318

  6. Predicting 'very poor' beach water quality gradings using classification tree.

    PubMed

    Thoe, Wai; Choi, King Wah; Lee, Joseph Hun-wei

    2016-02-01

    A beach water quality prediction system has been developed in Hong Kong using multiple linear regression (MLR) models. However, linear models are found to be weak at capturing the infrequent 'very poor' water quality occasions when Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL. This study uses a classification tree to increase the accuracy in predicting the 'very poor' water quality events at three Hong Kong beaches affected either by non-point source or point source pollution. Binary-output classification trees (to predict whether E. coli concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL) are developed over the periods before and after the implementation of the Harbour Area Treatment Scheme, when systematic changes in water quality were observed. Results show that classification trees can capture more 'very poor' events in both periods when compared to the corresponding linear models, with an increase in correct positives by an average of 20%. Classification trees are also developed at two beaches to predict the four-category Beach Water Quality Indices. They perform worse than the binary tree and give excessive false alarms of 'very poor' events. Finally, a combined modelling approach using both MLR model and classification tree is proposed to enhance the beach water quality prediction system for Hong Kong. PMID:26837834

  7. Seasonal Predictability of Water Scarcity at the Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weerts, Albrecht; Winsemius, Hessel; Dutra, Emanuel; Beckers, Joost; Brolsma, Reinder; van Beek, Rens; Pappenberger, Florian; Westerhoff, Rogier; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Timely indication of water scarcity is most important for early mitigation of serious water and food shortages across the globe. Within the EU FP7 GLOWASIS project a pre-validated GMES Global Service for Water Scarcity Information has been set up and tested. The service uses the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to compute water fluxes and establishes monthly water scarcity by combining the outputs from PCR-GLOBWB with a number of water demands. The service has been set up in the forecast shell Delft-FEWS. In this contribution, we evaluate the skill of the system across the globe in terms of forecasting a number of drought and water scarcity related indicators such as the water scarcity index, river discharge, soil moisture content and actual evaporation. First, we test how much skill is gained from memory by comparing skill from an Ensermble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP (revESP) experiment using ERAInterim precipitation (GPCP corrected), temperature and Penman Monteith potential evaporation. From these experiments, critical lead times are derived for water scarcity, discharge and other hydrologic variables indicating the relative importance of initial condition versus meteorological forcing (at 0.5 degree resolution). Subsequently, from a seasonal hydrological hindcast of 30 years (1981-2010) the added value of ECMWF seasonal forecasts (with and without bias correction) over climatological forecasts (e.g. ESP) is evaluated by looking qualitatively at the 'actual skill' of the water scarcity forecasts for individual water scarcity/drought events over the globe. The first analyses show that predictability of water scarcity is highly variable across the globe (per season and location). In some areas water scarcity is predictable at least up to three month lead time.

  8. Ground-water levels in Anchorage, Alaska, 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glass, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Water-level data collected during 1985 for 146 Anchorage wells deeper than 40 feet are presented. Hydrographs of water levels in 20 wells for the period 1970 through 1985 are also given. The report describes groundwater conditions and seasonal fluctuations in water levels, and includes pumpage figures and well-construction data. (USGS)

  9. County Level Assessment of Impaired Waters and Gastrointestinal Infections

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation therefore, assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water ...

  10. A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

    2013-12-01

    The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions, flood potential and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of water variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed. Future changes in water availability and drought risk are quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. For regions with lack of on-the-ground data we are field-testing low-cost environmental sensors and along with new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, integrating these into the system for improved monitoring and prediction. We provide an overview of the system and some examples of real-world applications to flood and drought events, with a focus on Africa.

  11. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1969-70

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, R.L.

    1972-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. In addition to the water-supply papers, the U.S. Geological Survey, cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, has published the following informal reports on water levels in Oklahoma. Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1956-60 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1961-62 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1963-64 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1965-66 Ground-water levels in observations wells in Oklahoma, 1967-68 Records of water-level measurements in wells in the Oklahoma Panhandle, 1966-70 Records of water-level measurements in wells in the Oklahoma Panhandle, 1971-72 The basic observation-well network in Oklahoma during the period 1969-70 included the following counties: Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Caddo, Cimarron, Cleveland, Garfield, Garvin, Grady, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kingfisher, LeFlore, Major, Muskogee, Oklahoma, Payne, Pontotoc, Rogers, Sequoyah, Texas, Tillman, Wagoner, Washita, and Woodward. Table 2 includes the basic observation-well network and other wells measured by the U.S. Geological Survey. The data in this report were compiled and prepared for publication under the cooperative agreement for ground-water investigations in Oklahoma between the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Oklahoma Geological Survey, and the U.S. Geological Survey.

  12. Predictive modelling of the mine water rebound in an old abandoned Dongwon mine in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baek, Hwanjo; Kim, Daehoon; Park, Seunghwan; Kim, Gyoungman

    2014-05-01

    The closure of over three-hundred deep coal mines in Korea since the late-1980s, primarily due to the energy and environmental concerns, has produced significant side effects. One of the major challenges is to assess the risk from mine water rebound to overlying aquifers and surface waters, which can produce significant environmental hazards. Some numerical models such as VSS-NET, GRAM and MODFLOW have been developed to predict the quantity, timing and location of discharges resulting from mine water rebound. In this study, we developed a GRAM-based windows program for mine water rebound modelling in abandoned deep mine systems. The program consists of the simulation engine and the GUI modules, each has several subroutines. Changes in mine water level of the Dongwon coal mine, presumably hydrogeologically connected to nearby old abandoned mines, has been monitored after the mine was finally closed in 2005. The water level in the vertical shaft rised up to 420m during the period of 3 years. The system was modelled as two ponds connected by a pipe. Input data include the areas of each pond, catchment areas, the storage coefficient, etc. The predicted changes in the mine water level was very similar to the observed data in the field. For this modelling, in fact, some of the input variable were roughly assumed to match the field data. Nevertheless, this program can be effectively applied to predict the rising of the mine water after the mine closure.

  13. Integrating Non-Tidal Sea Level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2012-10-01

    The main objective of this paper is to integrate Non-Tidal Sea Level (NSL) from the joint TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimetry with tide gauge data at the west and north coast of the United Kingdom for coastal sea level prediction. The temporal correlation coefficient between altimetric NSLs and tide gauge data reaches a maximum higher than 90% for each gauge. The results show that the multivariate regression approach can efficiently integrate the two types of data in the coastal waters of the area. The Multivariate Regression Model is established by integrating the along-track NSL from the joint TOPEX/Jason-1/Jason-2 altimeters with that from eleven tide gauges. The model results give a maximum hindcast skill of 0.95, which means maximum 95% of NSL variance can be explained by the model. The minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSe) between altimetric observations and model predictions is 4.99 cm in the area. The validation of the model using Envisat satellite altimetric data gives a maximum temporal correlation coefficient of 0.96 and a minimum RMSe of 4.39 cm between altimetric observations and model predictions, respectively. The model is furthermore used to predict high frequency NSL variation (i.e., every 15 min) during a storm surge event at an independent tide gauge station at the Northeast of the UK (Aberdeen).

  14. Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; Houser, P.

    2012-12-01

    Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low predictability over the extratropics, more potential predictability over the ocean than land, and a stronger seasonal variation in potential predictability over land than ocean. The substantial differences are observed especially over the extropical areas where boundary-forced signal is not as significant as in tropics. We further evaluate the accuracy of reanalysis in estimating seasonal predictability over several selected regions, where rain gauge measurement or land surface data assimilation product is available and accurate, to gain insight on the strength and weakness of reanalysis products.

  15. Drought-trigger ground-water levels and analysis of historical water-level trends in Chester County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schreffler, Curtis L.

    1996-01-01

    The Chester County observation-well network was established in 1973 through a cooperative agreement between the Chester County Water Resources Authority (CCWRA) and the U.S. Geological Survey. The network was established to monitor local ground-water levels, to determine drought conditions, and to monitor ground-water-level trends. Drought-warning and drought-emergency water-level triggers were determined for 20 of the 23 wells in the Chester County observation-well network. A statistical test to determine either rising or declining water-level trends was performed on data for all wells in the network. Water-level data from both of these wells showed a rising trend. A decrease in ground-water pumping in the area near these wells was probably the reason for the rise in water levels.

  16. Water levels in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Tucci, P.; Goemaat, R.L.; Burkhardt, D.J.

    1996-07-01

    Water levels were monitored in 28 wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during 1993. Seventeen wells were monitored periodically, generally on a monthly basis, and 11 wells representing 18 intervals were monitored hourly. All wells monitor water levels in Tertiary volcanic rocks, except one that monitors water levels in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Water levels were measured using calibrated steel tapes and pressure transducers; steel-tape measurements were corrected for mechanical stretch, thermal expansion, and borehole deviation to obtain precise water-level altitudes. Water-level altitudes in the Tertiary volcanic rocks ranged from about 728 meters above sea level east of Yucca Mountain to about 1,034 meters above sea level north of Yucca Mountain. Water-level altitudes in the well monitoring the Paleozoic carbonate rocks varied between 752 and 753 meters above sea level during 1993. Water levels were an average of about 0.04 meter lower than 1992 water levels. All data were acquired in accordance with a quality-assurance program to support the reliability of the data.

  17. Neural networks for predicting chilled water demand in buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Hittle, D.C.; Flocken, P.A.; Anderson, C.W.

    1996-12-31

    A neural network was designed, trained, and tested to predict chilled water demands. The input data to the neural network included temperature, wet bulb temperature, 24 hours of past loads, a day-of-the-week indicator, an hour-of-the-day indicator, and a holiday indicator. A two-layer network was used to predict the chilled water demand for the current hour plus 23 hours into the future. Therefore, the output of the neutral network consisted of 24 outputs, each representing a chilled water demand forecast. A hidden layer was used in the neural network consisting of 20 hidden units. A variety of network configurations were tested, as were learning algorithms, learning rates, and network threshold types (unipolar, bipolar or linear). The coefficient of determination, R2, measured how well the network predicted into the future. In general, the network training was smooth and the resulting network predicted the future chilled water demand with a coefficient of determination greater than 0.9, even for 24-hour ahead forecasts. This paper discusses the network design training protocol and results of the performance of the network on test data.

  18. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

  19. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1967-68

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bingham, R.H.

    1969-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1967-68), is the fifth in a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 2-year period of (1961-62); the second report, published in 1964, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1961-62); the third report, published in 1965, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1963-64); and the fourth report contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1965-66).

  20. Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans

    PubMed Central

    Nolet, Bart A.; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R. D.; de Boer, Willem F.; Stillman, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick’s swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

  1. Predicting Effects of Water Regime Changes on Waterbirds: Insights from Staging Swans.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Bart A; Gyimesi, Abel; van Krimpen, Roderick R D; de Boer, Willem F; Stillman, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the environmental impact of a proposed development is notoriously difficult, especially when future conditions fall outside the current range of conditions. Individual-based approaches have been developed and applied to predict the impact of environmental changes on wintering and staging coastal bird populations. How many birds make use of staging sites is mostly determined by food availability and accessibility, which in the case of many waterbirds in turn is affected by water level. Many water systems are regulated and water levels are maintained at target levels, set by management authorities. We used an individual-based modelling framework (MORPH) to analyse how different target water levels affect the number of migratory Bewick's swans Cygnus columbianus bewickii staging at a shallow freshwater lake (Lauwersmeer, the Netherlands) in autumn. As an emerging property of the model, we found strong non-linear responses of swan usage to changes in water level, with a sudden drop in peak numbers as well as bird-days with a 0.20 m rise above the current target water level. Such strong non-linear responses are probably common and should be taken into account in environmental impact assessments. PMID:26862895

  2. Ensemble streamflow prediction adjustment for upstream water use and regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, Aris P.; Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

    2014-11-01

    Hydrologic model forecasts are commonly biased in watersheds where water use and regulation activities cause flow alterations. Furthermore, direct accounting of such biases in forecast preparation is impractical as the information required is extensive and usually unavailable. This article introduces a new method to characterize the aggregate flow alteration biases and associated uncertainty in watersheds with important but largely undocumented water use and regulation activities. It also uses these assessments to adjust the ensemble streamflow predictions at downstream locations. The method includes procedures to (a) detect the presence of significant upstream regulation and water use influences; (b) correct the ensemble streamflow predictions and associated uncertainty for any biases in periods when such influences are detectable; and (c) assess the adjusted forecast reliability improvements. Applications in three watersheds of the American River in California demonstrate that the new method leads to significant forecast skill improvements and is also readily applicable to other regions.

  3. Predicting Salmonella Populations from Biological, Chemical, and Physical Indicators in Florida Surface Waters

    PubMed Central

    McEgan, Rachel; Mootian, Gabriel; Goodridge, Lawrence D.; Schaffner, Donald W.

    2013-01-01

    Coliforms, Escherichia coli, and various physicochemical water characteristics have been suggested as indicators of microbial water quality or index organisms for pathogen populations. The relationship between the presence and/or concentration of Salmonella and biological, physical, or chemical indicators in Central Florida surface water samples over 12 consecutive months was explored. Samples were taken monthly for 12 months from 18 locations throughout Central Florida (n = 202). Air and water temperature, pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), turbidity, and conductivity were measured. Weather data were obtained from nearby weather stations. Aerobic plate counts and most probable numbers (MPN) for Salmonella, E. coli, and coliforms were performed. Weak linear relationships existed between biological indicators (E. coli/coliforms) and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1) and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels (R2 < 0.1). The average rainfall (previous day, week, and month) before sampling did not correlate well with bacterial levels. Logistic regression analysis showed that E. coli concentration can predict the probability of enumerating selected Salmonella levels. The lack of good correlations between biological indicators and Salmonella levels and between physicochemical indicators and Salmonella levels shows that the relationship between pathogens and indicators is complex. However, Escherichia coli provides a reasonable way to predict Salmonella levels in Central Florida surface water through logistic regression. PMID:23624476

  4. Variation in the sensitivity of predicted levels of atmospheric organic particulate matter (OPM).

    PubMed

    Pankow, James F; Chang, Elsa I

    2008-10-01

    This study examines the sensitivity in predicted levels of atmospheric organic particulate matter (M(o), microg m(-3)) to changes in the governing gas/particle partitioning constants and the tau(I) (levels of condensable organic compounds, microg m(-3)). M(o) is given by the difference between sigma tau(i) and the corresponding sum for the gas-phase levels. It is demonstrated that the sensitivity in predicted M(o) levels increases rapidly as M(o) becomes very small relative to sigma tau(i): as the tau(i), decrease, the gas phase becomes increasingly capable of holding the majority of all tau(i) and small changes in system parameters can cause large relative changes in M(o). These effects are illustrated using predictions for two values of the reacted hydrocarbon concentration (deltaHC) for each of three secondary organic aerosol systems for relative humidity (RH) = 20-80%. Specific structures for the oxidation products allows consideration of the effects of varying activity coefficients and water uptake. At low M(o)/sigma tau(i) (as may be found in the atmosphere away from sources and at warm temperatures), relatively small errors in model input parameters (e.g., vapor pressures, vaporization enthalpies, activity coefficient parameters, and the tau(i) values for low volatility compounds) will be amplified into large errors in the predicted M(o) values. PMID:18939565

  5. 26. Mechanical float gages used to monitor level of water ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    26. Mechanical float gages used to monitor level of water in the filtration bed reservoir. - Lake Whitney Water Filtration Plant, Filtration Plant, South side of Armory Street between Edgehill Road & Whitney Avenue, Hamden, New Haven County, CT

  6. RPW: a hybrid reverse prediction method for level of detail.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shuangbao; Dong, Zegang; Ledley, Robert S

    2007-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a way of using multiple domain analysis methodology to speed up the image rendering process. We first apply wavelet transform to the original image, and then compress the wavelets in the frequency domain using histogram equalization techniques. When rendering the image, we uncompress the wavelets and reverse predict the upper level images. This process continues until it reaches a certain criteria. We use two terms-total image size (TIS) and total loading time (TLT) to measure the performance of level of detail (LOD) in a network environment. We compare traditional image-based LOD methods with the new method we are proposing. Experiments show that the proposed method can reduce both TIS and TLT. The image rendering speed on a remote client is approximately 2.5 times faster than the common image compression methods. Applications such as remote diagnostic systems and online museums can use this technique to achieve better real-time animation effects. PMID:17913457

  7. Ecology predicts levels of genetic differentiation in neotropical birds.

    PubMed

    Burney, Curtis W; Brumfield, Robb T

    2009-09-01

    Despite the theoretical link between the ecology and the population genetics of species, little empirical evidence is available that corroborates the association. Here, we examined genetic variation in 40 codistributed species of lowland Neotropical rain forest birds that have populations isolated on either side of the Andes, the Amazon River, and the Madeira River. We found widely varying levels of genetic divergence among these taxa across the same biogeographic barriers. Our investigation of the extent to which ecological traits predicted the amount of cross-barrier divergence revealed a strongly significant relationship between the forest stratum at which a species forages and the level of cross-barrier genetic differentiation. Canopy species had statistically lower genetic divergence values across the Andes and the two Amazonian rivers than did understory birds. We hypothesize that the association reflects an effect of dispersal propensity, which is greater in canopy birds, on the movement of alleles among demes (i.e., migration) and, consequently, on the interdemic proportion of the genetic variance. Differences in dispersal propensity may also explain the observation that understory species contain a significantly greater number of subspecies than do canopy species. This result indicates that higher rates of diversification may occur in lineages with lower dispersal propensity. PMID:19627230

  8. Weather and Prey Predict Mammals’ Visitation to Water

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G.; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E.; Butler, Matthew J.

    2015-01-01

    Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs. PMID:26560518

  9. Weather and Prey Predict Mammals' Visitation to Water.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant; Sanderson, James G; Erz, Jon; Lehnen, Sarah E; Butler, Matthew J

    2015-01-01

    Throughout many arid lands of Africa, Australia and the United States, wildlife agencies provide water year-round for increasing game populations and enhancing biodiversity, despite concerns that water provisioning may favor species more dependent on water, increase predation, and reduce biodiversity. In part, understanding the effects of water provisioning requires identifying why and when animals visit water. Employing this information, by matching water provisioning with use by target species, could assist wildlife management objectives while mitigating unintended consequences of year-round watering regimes. Therefore, we examined if weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity [RH], vapor pressure deficit [VPD], long and short-term precipitation) and predator-prey relationships (i.e., prey presence) predicted water visitation by 9 mammals. We modeled visitation as recorded by trail cameras at Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, New Mexico, USA (June 2009 to September 2014) using generalized linear modeling. For 3 native ungulates, elk (Cervus Canadensis), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana), less long-term precipitation and higher maximum temperatures increased visitation, including RH for mule deer. Less long-term precipitation and higher VPD increased oryx (Oryx gazella) and desert cottontail rabbits (Sylvilagus audubonii) visitation. Long-term precipitation, with RH or VPD, predicted visitation for black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Standardized model coefficients demonstrated that the amount of long-term precipitation influenced herbivore visitation most. Weather (especially maximum temperature) and prey (cottontails and jackrabbits) predicted bobcat (Lynx rufus) visitation. Mule deer visitation had the largest influence on coyote (Canis latrans) visitation. Puma (Puma concolor) visitation was solely predicted by prey visitation (elk, mule deer, oryx). Most ungulate visitation peaked during May and June. Coyote, elk and puma visitation was relatively consistent throughout the year. Within the diel-period, activity patterns for predators corresponded with prey. Year-round water management may favor species with consistent use throughout the year, and facilitate predation. Providing water only during periods of high use by target species may moderate unwanted biological costs. PMID:26560518

  10. Predicting Risk from Radon in Source Waters from Water Quality Parameters

    EPA Science Inventory

    Overall, 47 groundwater samples were collected from 45 small community water systems (CWSs) and analyzed for radon and other water quality constituents. In general, groundwater from unconsolidated deposits and sedimentary rocks had lower average radon levels (ranging from 223 to...

  11. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1965-66

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hart, D.L., Jr.

    1967-01-01

    The investigation of the ground-water resources of Oklahoma by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board includes a continuing program to collect records of water levels in selected observation wells on a systematic basis. These water-level records: (1) provide an index to available ground-water supplies; (2) facilitate the prediction of trends in water levels that will indicate likely changes in storage; (3) aid in the prediction of the base flow of streams; (4) provide information for use in basic research; (5) provide long-time continuous records of fluctuations of water levels in representative wells; and (6) serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data my be related. Prior to 1956, measurements of water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma were included in water-supply papers published annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Beginning with the 1956 calendar year, however, Geological Survey water-level reports will contain only records of a selected network of observation wells, and will be published at 5-year intervals. The first of this series, for the 1956-59 period was published in 1962. This report has been prepared primarily to present water-level records of wells not included in the Federal network. However, for the sake of completeness it includes water-level records of Federal wells that either have been or will be published in water-supply papers since 1955. This report, which contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1965-66), is the fourth in a series presenting water-level records for all permanent observations wells in Oklahoma. The first report, published in 1963, contains water-level records for the 2-year period of (1961-62); the second report, published in 1964, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1961-62); and the third report, published in 1965, contains water-level records for the 2-year period (1963-64). (available as photostat copy only)

  12. A multivariate linear regression model for predicting children's blood lead levels based on soil lead levels: A study at four Superfund sites

    SciTech Connect

    Lewin, M.D.; Sarasua, S.; Jones, P.A. . Div. of Health Studies)

    1999-07-01

    For the purpose of examining the association between blood lead levels and household-specific soil lead levels, the authors used a multivariate linear regression model to find a slope factor relating soil lead levels to blood lead levels. They used previously collected data from the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry's (ATSDR's) multisite lead and cadmium study. The data included in the blood lead measurements of 1,015 children aged 6--71 months, and corresponding household-specific environmental samples. The environmental samples included lead in soil, house dust, interior paint, and tap water. After adjusting for income, education or the parents, presence of a smoker in the household, sex, and dust lead, and using a double log transformation, they found a slope factor of 0.1388 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.09--0.19 for the dose-response relationship between the natural log of the soil lead level and the natural log of the blood lead level. The predicted blood lead level corresponding to a soil lead level of 500 mg/kg was 5.99 [micro]g/kg with a 95% prediction interval of 2.08--17.29. Predicted values and their corresponding prediction intervals varied by covariate level. The model shows that increased soil lead level is associated with elevated blood leads in children, but that predictions based on this regression model are subject to high levels of uncertainty and variability.

  13. Accurate predictions for the production of vaporized water

    SciTech Connect

    Morin, E.; Montel, F.

    1995-12-31

    The production of water vaporized in the gas phase is controlled by the local conditions around the wellbore. The pressure gradient applied to the formation creates a sharp increase of the molar water content in the hydrocarbon phase approaching the well; this leads to a drop in the pore water saturation around the wellbore. The extent of the dehydrated zone which is formed is the key controlling the bottom-hole content of vaporized water. The maximum water content in the hydrocarbon phase at a given pressure, temperature and salinity is corrected by capillarity or adsorption phenomena depending on the actual water saturation. Describing the mass transfer of the water between the hydrocarbon phases and the aqueous phase into the tubing gives a clear idea of vaporization effects on the formation of scales. Field example are presented for gas fields with temperatures ranging between 140{degrees}C and 180{degrees}C, where water vaporization effects are significant. Conditions for salt plugging in the tubing are predicted.

  14. PERSPECTIVE FROM WATER LEVEL, SOUTHEAST BY 165 DEGREES. Wright's ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    PERSPECTIVE FROM WATER LEVEL, SOUTHEAST BY 165 DEGREES. - Wright's Bridge, Spanning Sugar River, former Boston & Maine Railroad (originally Concord & Claremont Railroad), Claremont, Sullivan County, NH

  15. Predicting tree water use and drought tolerance from leaf traits in the Los Angeles urban ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, G. P.; Scoffoni, C.; Sack, L.

    2013-12-01

    Urban green space provides a suite of valuable ecosystem services. In semiarid systems, like Los Angeles, trees rely primarily on irrigation water for transpiration. Managers may need to reduce irrigation associated with urban trees given climate change, urban expansion, and the steady decrease in available freshwater. While leaf and whole plant water relations have been extensively studied, we are only now gaining a detailed understanding of diverse leaf anatomical designs, and their use for predicting physiology and water use at landscape scale. For 50 diverse urban species, we quantified leaf anatomical and physiological traits important to tree drought tolerance and water use efficiency including turgor loss point, vein architecture, cellular anatomy, leaf mass per unit area, and petiole and leaf dimensions. We hypothesized detailed relationships to develop models relating leaf functional traits to tree water relations. These models provide key insights regarding the role of anatomical designs in leaf stress tolerance and water use efficiency. Additionally we predicted how traits measured at the leaf level would scale with existing data for individuals at the whole plant level. We tested our predictions by determining correlations between leaf level anatomical traits and drought tolerance. Additionally, we determined correlations between functional traits, physiology and water use, and the climate of origin for the urban species. Leaf level measurements will be valuable for rapid estimation of more difficult to measure whole plant water relations traits important at the landscape scale. The Los Angeles urban ecosystem can serve as a model for other semiarid system and provide more informed system wide water conservation strategies.

  16. Towards quantification of uncertainty in predicting water quality failures in integrated catchment model studies.

    PubMed

    Schellart, A N A; Tait, S J; Ashley, R M

    2010-07-01

    This paper describes the development and application of a method for estimating uncertainty in the prediction of sewer flow quantity and quality and how this may impact on the prediction of water quality failures in integrated catchment modelling (ICM) studies. The method is generic and readily adaptable for use with different flow quality prediction models that are used in ICM studies. Use is made of the elicitation concept, whereby expert knowledge combined with a limited amount of data are translated into probability distributions describing the level of uncertainty of various input and model variables. This type of approach can be used even if little or no site specific data is available. Integrated catchment modelling studies often use complex deterministic models. To apply the results of elicitation in a case study, a computational reduction method has been developed in order to determine levels of uncertainty in model outputs with a reasonably practical level of computational effort. This approach was applied to determine the level of uncertainty in the number of water quality failures predicted by an ICM study, due to uncertainty associated with input and model parameters of the urban drainage model component of the ICM. For a small case study catchment in the UK, it was shown that the predicted number of water quality failures in the receiving water could vary by around 45% of the number predicted without consideration of model uncertainty for dissolved oxygen and around 32% for unionised ammonia. It was concluded that the potential overall levels of uncertainty in the ICM outputs could be significant. Any solutions designed using modelling approaches that do not consider uncertainty associated with model input and model parameters may be significantly over-dimensioned or under-dimensioned. With changing external inputs, such as rainfall and river flows due to climate change, better accounting for uncertainty is required. PMID:20569964

  17. Water levels in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Graves, R.P.; Goemaat, R.L.

    1998-09-01

    Water levels were monitored in 28 wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during 1995. Seventeen wells representing 18 depth intervals were monitored periodically, generally on a monthly basis, 2 wells representing 3 depth intervals were monitored hourly, and 9 wells representing 15 depth intervals were monitored both periodically and hourly. All wells monitor water levels in Tertiary volcanic rocks except one that monitors water levels in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Water levels were measured using calibrated steel tapes, a multiconductor cable unit, and/or pressure transducers. Mean water-level altitudes in the Tertiary volcanic rocks ranged from about 728 to about 1,034 meters above sea level during 1995. The mean water-level altitude in the well monitoring the Paleozoic carbonate rocks was about 753 meters above sea level during 1995. Mean water level altitudes were only an average of about 0.01 meters higher than 1994 mean water level altitudes. A single-well aquifer test was conducted on well UE-25 WT{number_sign}12 during August and September 1995. Well USW 0-2 was also pumped during October and November 1995, in preparation for single-well aquifer test at that well. All data were acquired in accordance with a quality-assurance program to support the reliability of the data.

  18. Water levels in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Graves, R.P.; Tucci, P.; Goemaat, R.L.

    1996-12-31

    Water levels were monitored in 28 wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during 1994. Twelve wells representing 13 intervals were monitored periodically, generally on a monthly basis, 6 wells representing 10 intervals were monitored hourly, and 10 wells representing 13 intervals were monitored both periodically and hourly. All wells monitor water levels in Tertiary volcanic rocks, except one, that monitors water levels in Paleozoic carbonate rocks. Water levels were measured using calibrated steel tapes, a multiconductor cable unit, and pressure transducers. Water-level altitudes in the Tertiary volcanic rocks ranged from about 728 to about 1,034 meters above sea level during 1994. The mean-annual water-level altitude in the well monitoring the Paleozoic carbonate rocks was about 753 meters above sea level during 1994. Water levels were only an average of about 0.01 meters lower than 1993 water levels. All data were acquired in accordance with a quality-assurance program to support the reliability of the data.

  19. Predicting and mapping soil available water capacity in Korea

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Suk Young; Han, Kyung Hwa; Kim, Yihyun; Lee, Kyungdo

    2013-01-01

    The knowledge on the spatial distribution of soil available water capacity at a regional or national extent is essential, as soil water capacity is a component of the water and energy balances in the terrestrial ecosystem. It controls the evapotranspiration rate, and has a major impact on climate. This paper demonstrates a protocol for mapping soil available water capacity in South Korea at a fine scale using data available from surveys. The procedures combined digital soil mapping technology with the available soil map of 1:25,000. We used the modal profile data from the Taxonomical Classification of Korean Soils. The data consist of profile description along with physical and chemical analysis for the modal profiles of the 380 soil series. However not all soil samples have measured bulk density and water content at −10 and −1500 kPa. Thus they need to be predicted using pedotransfer functions. Furthermore, water content at −10 kPa was measured using ground samples. Thus a correction factor is derived to take into account the effect of bulk density. Results showed that Andisols has the highest mean water storage capacity, followed by Entisols and Inceptisols which have loamy texture. The lowest water retention is Entisols which are dominated by sandy materials. Profile available water capacity to a depth of 1 m was calculated and mapped for Korea. The western part of the country shows higher available water capacity than the eastern part which is mountainous and has shallower soils. The highest water storage capacity soils are the Ultisols and Alfisols (mean of 206 and 205 mm, respectively). Validation of the maps showed promising results. The map produced can be used as an indication of soil physical quality of Korean soils. PMID:23646290

  20. Potential Seasonal Predictability of the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; DelSole, T. M.; Houser, P. R.

    2011-12-01

    The potential predictability of seasonal means of water cycle components, specifically precipitation and evaporation, are estimated using recently developed methods based on Analysis of Covariance (ANOCOVA) and the bootstrap, and the previous methods proposed by Katz (KZ), Shukla-Gutzler (SG) and Madden (MN). The ANOCOVA method has the advantage of not only taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. The second method is based on the bootstrap technique that makes few assumptions about physical process, model structure and underlying distribution. The essence of the bootstrap is to randomly resample the daily time series to build up an empirical distribution of the variance of seasonal means under the null hypothesis that seasonal mean is independent of year. The predictability of the observed precipitation estimated by ANOCOVA, the bootstrap and KZ reveals similar spatial distribution patterns: large fraction of predictable variance (FPV) in tropics and low FPV over extatropics where interannual variability is not significantly distinguished from the weather noise. There are more regions identified potentially predictable in December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM) than in June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON). The ANOCOVA method exhibits the highest predictability of the three methods and is close to the bootstrap, while KZ shows the smallest FPV due to the dominance of noise. Seasonal evaporation over global land from ANOCOVA, bootstrap, SG and MN indicates that high predictability occurs predominately over tropical and southern mid-latitude land areas, and modest predictability occurs over North America and Europe. The potential predictability of evaporation also exhibits a prominent seasonal cycle with JJA and SON having the most predictable area. The bootstrap suggests that 58% of land is potentially predictable, the largest predictable area of the four methods. The ANOCOVA method also has larger FPV than SG and MN, while it generally produces estimates similar to those of the bootstrap. The predictable area suggested by MN barely exceeds 30% of the globe, the smallest area of predictable estimated among all the four methods.

  1. Impact of Plumbing Age on Copper Levels in Drinking Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Theory and limited practical experiences suggest that higher copper levels in drinking water tap samples are typically associated with newer plumbing systems, and levels decrease with increasing plumbing age. Past researchers have developed a conceptual model to explain the agin...

  2. Prediction of water intake and excretion flows in Holstein dairy cows under thermoneutral conditions.

    PubMed

    Khelil-Arfa, H; Boudon, A; Maxin, G; Faverdin, P

    2012-10-01

    The increase in the worldwide demand for dairy products, associated with global warming, will emphasize the issue of water use efficiency in dairy systems. The evaluation of environmental issues related to the management of animal dejections will also require precise biotechnical models that can predict effluent management in farms. In this study, equations were developed and evaluated for predicting the main water flows at the dairy cow level, based on parameters related to cow productive performance and diet under thermoneutral conditions. Two datasets were gathered. The first one comprised 342 individual measurements of water balance in dairy cows obtained during 18 trials at the experimental farm of Méjussaume (INRA, France). Predictive equations of water intake, urine and fecal water excretion were developed by multiple regression using a stepwise selection of regressors from a list of seven candidate parameters, which were milk yield, dry matter intake (DMI), body weight, diet dry matter content (DM), proportion of concentrate (CONC) and content of crude protein (CP) ingested with forage and concentrate (CPf and CPc, g/kg DM). The second dataset was used for external validation of the developed equations and comprised 196 water flow measurements on experimental lots obtained from 43 published papers related to water balance or digestibility measurements in dairy cows. Although DMI was the first predictor of the total water intake (TWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.51, DM was the first predictive parameter of free water intake (FWI), with a partial r(2) of 0.57, likely due to the large variability of DM in the first dataset (from 11.5 to 91.4 g/100 g). This confirmed the compensation between water drunk and ingested with diet when DM changes. The variability of urine volume was explained mainly by the CPf associated with DMI (r.s.d. 5.4 kg/day for an average flow of 24.0 kg/day) and that of fecal water was explained by the proportion of CONC in the diet and DMI. External validation showed that predictive equations excluding DMI as predictive parameters could be used for FWI, urine and fecal water predictions if cows were fed a well-known total mixed ration. It also appeared that TWI and FWI were underestimated when ambient temperature increased above 25°C and possible means of including climatic parameters in future predictive equations were proposed. PMID:23031565

  3. Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending.

    PubMed

    Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

    2015-09-01

    Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample's own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience's potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior. PMID:26187248

  4. Neural Affective Mechanisms Predict Market-Level Microlending

    PubMed Central

    Genevsky, Alexander; Knutson, Brian

    2015-01-01

    Humans sometimes share with others whom they may never meet or know, in violation of the dictates of pure self-interest. Research has not established which neuropsychological mechanisms support lending decisions, nor whether their influence extends to markets involving significant financial incentives. In two studies, we found that neural affective mechanisms influence the success of requests for microloans. In a large Internet database of microloan requests (N = 13,500), we found that positive affective features of photographs promoted the success of those requests. We then established that neural activity (i.e., in the nucleus accumbens) and self-reported positive arousal in a neuroimaging sample (N = 28) predicted the success of loan requests on the Internet, above and beyond the effects of the neuroimaging sample’s own choices (i.e., to lend or not). These findings suggest that elicitation of positive arousal can promote the success of loan requests, both in the laboratory and on the Internet. They also highlight affective neuroscience’s potential to probe neuropsychological mechanisms that drive microlending, enhance the effectiveness of loan requests, and forecast market-level behavior. PMID:26187248

  5. Water hammer prediction and control: the Green's function method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuan, Li-Jun; Mao, Feng; Wu, Jie-Zhi

    2012-04-01

    By Green's function method we show that the water hammer (WH) can be analytically predicted for both laminar and turbulent flows (for the latter, with an eddy viscosity depending solely on the space coordinates), and thus its hazardous effect can be rationally controlled and minimized. To this end, we generalize a laminar water hammer equation of Wang et al. (J. Hydrodynamics, B2, 51, 1995) to include arbitrary initial condition and variable viscosity, and obtain its solution by Green's function method. The predicted characteristic WH behaviors by the solutions are in excellent agreement with both direct numerical simulation of the original governing equations and, by adjusting the eddy viscosity coefficient, experimentally measured turbulent flow data. Optimal WH control principle is thereby constructed and demonstrated.

  6. Rapid computer prediction of total body water in fluid overload.

    PubMed

    Schloerb, P R; Palaskas, C L; Mintun, M A

    1981-09-01

    Using computer analysis of the early plasma arterial disappearance curve of tritiated water (HTO), we sought the fewest points and earliest times needed to predict the final volume of dilution, total body water (TBW). In ten anesthetized adult female dogs weighing 19.1 +/- 0.5 kg, with bilateral ureteral ligation, 500 muC HTO were given IV. Arterial blood samples were taken until equilibrium (3 hours), when the approximate equivalent of extracellular fluid (ECF), 4,000 ml of lactated Ringer's solution, was given IV within 1 hour. The next day, in the second phase of the study, 1,000 muC of HTO were given IV and arterial blood samples were taken at intervals up to equilibrium (5 hours). TBW at 3 hours after the first HTO infusion was 63.3 +/- 1.2% body weight. Using a curve-fitting Fortran program (CFIT), the arterial plasma HTO concentrations were fitted to one or two exponentials. Although initial TBW could be predicted from arterial plasma concentrations of HTO during 20 minutes after injection in normally hydrated dogs, values during 60 minutes were required for accurate prediction of TBW after infusion of 4 L of fluid. TBW in normal and fluid-loaded animals was predicted within 2.3 +/- 0.6% of the final HTO equilibrium (r = 0.987). PMID:7277540

  7. A siphon gage for monitoring surface-water levels

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCobb, T.D.; LeBlanc, D.R.; Socolow, R.S.

    1999-01-01

    A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold regions cause discontinuity and inaccuracy in the data collected. Installation and field testing of a siphon gage using 0.75-in-diameter polyethylene tubing at Ashumet Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, demonstrated that the siphon gage can provide long-term data with a field effort and accuracy equivalent to measurement of ground-water levels at an observation well.A device that uses a siphon tube to establish a hydraulic connection between the bottom of an onshore standpipe and a point at the bottom of a water body was designed and tested for monitoring surface-water levels. Water is added to the standpipe to a level sufficient to drive a complete slug of water through the siphoning tube and to flush all air out of the system. The water levels in the standpipe and the water body equilibrate and provide a measurable static water surface in the standpipe. The siphon gage was designed to allow quick and accurate year-round measurements with minimal maintenance. Currently available devices for monitoring surface-water levels commonly involve time-consuming and costly installation and surveying, and the movement of reference points and the presence of ice cover in cold regions cause discontinuity and inaccuracy in the data collected. Installation and field testing of a siphon gage using 0.75-in-diameter polyethylene tubing at Ashumet Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, demonstrated that the siphon gage can provide long-term data with a field effort and accuracy equivalent to measurement of ground-water levels at an observation well.

  8. Measuring Water Levels in the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer

    USGS hydrologic technician Jayson Blom collects a water-level measurement at a monitoring well on the U.S. Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory site. During the summer of 2014, water levels measured at the site reached all-time lows....

  9. Prediction of the safety level to an installation of the tritium process through predictive maintenance

    SciTech Connect

    Anghel, V.

    2008-07-15

    The safety level for personnel and environment to a nuclear installation is given in generally by the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and in particular by a lot of technical, technological, economic and human factors. The maintenance role is fundamental because it has to quantify all the technical, economic and human elements as an integrated system for it creates an important feedback for activities concerning the life cycle of the nuclear installation. In maintenance activities as in any dynamic area, new elements appear continuously which, sometimes require new approaches. The theory of fuzzy logic and the software LabVIEW supplied to the Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) is part of National Research and Development Inst. for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies-ICIT, Rm.Valcea, used for predictive maintenance to assure safety operation. The final aim is to achieve the best practices for maintenance of the Plant that processes tritium. (authors)

  10. A Review of the Prediction of Squat in Shallow Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millward, A.

    Recent evidence has shown that the effect of a ship moving in shallow water and the resultant squat are not well understood. This paper reviews the general problem of a ship in shallow water and illustrates the corresponding resistance, trim and sinkage at both sub-critical and also at super-critical speeds.The paper then reviews the various methods of predicting the squat of a ship in shallow water in the sub-critical range, which is applicable to most ships. It is suggested that the simple rule-of-thumb methods are, at best, unreliable and the paper gives examples of empirical methods which have been tested against various sets of data and seem to give more representative answers. A summary of the notation used is given at the end of the paper.

  11. Fluctuations of ground-water levels in Lee County, Florida, in 1975 water year

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, T. H.

    1977-01-01

    During the 1975 water year, rainfall was about average at Page Field, Florida, and from 20-25 percent below average at Lehigh Acres and Sanibel Island. Water levels were monitored in 57 observation wells in Lee County, Florida. Of the 23 wells that tap the water-table aquifer, one record high and 5 record low water levels were established. Record low water levels were established in 5 of 20 wells that tap the sandstone aquifer and in 1 of 10 wells that tap the upper Hawthorn aquifer. A record high water level was established in 1 of 3 wells that tap the lower Hawthorn aquifer. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. Evaluating a microbial water quality prediction model for beach management under the revised EU Bathing Water Directive.

    PubMed

    Bedri, Zeinab; Corkery, Aisling; O'Sullivan, John J; Deering, Louise A; Demeter, Katalin; Meijer, Wim G; O'Hare, Gregory; Masterson, Bartholomew

    2016-02-01

    The revised Bathing Water Directive (2006/7/EC) requires EU member states to minimise the risk to public health from faecal pollution at bathing waters through improved monitoring and management approaches. While increasingly sophisticated measurement methods (such as microbial source tracking) assist in the management of bathing water resources, the use of deterministic predictive models for this purpose, while having the potential to provide decision making support, remains less common. This study explores an integrated, deterministic catchment-coastal hydro-environmental model as a decision-making tool for beach management which, based on advance predictions of bathing water quality, can inform beach managers on appropriate management actions (to prohibit bathing or advise the public not to bathe) in the event of a poor water quality forecast. The model provides a 'moving window' five-day forecast of Escherichia coli levels at a bathing water compliance point off the Irish coast and the accuracy of bathing water management decisions were investigated for model predictions under two scenarios over the period from the 11th August to the 5th September, 2012. Decisions for Scenario 1 were based on model predictions where rainfall forecasts from a meteorological source (www.yr.no) were used to drive the rainfall-runoff processes in the catchment component of the model, and for Scenario 2, were based on predictions that were improved by incorporating real-time rainfall data from a sensor network within the catchment into the forecasted meteorological input data. The accuracy of the model in the decision-making process was assessed using the contingency table and its metrics. The predictive model gave reasonable outputs to support appropriate decision making for public health protection. Scenario 1 provided real-time predictions that, on 77% of instances during the study period where both predicted and E. coli concentrations were available, would correctly inform a beach manager to either take action to mitigate for poor bathing water quality or take no action. However, Scenario 1 also provided data to support a decision to take action (when none was necessary - a type I error) in 4% of instances and to take no action (when action was required - a type II error) in 19% of the instances analysed. Type II errors are critical in terms of public health protection given that for this error, bathers can be exposed to risks from poor bathing water quality. Scenario 2, on the other hand, provided predictions that would support correct management actions for 79% of the instances but would result in type I and type II errors for 4% and 17% of the instances respectively. Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 2 for this study indicate that Scenario 2 gave a marginally better overall performance in terms of supporting correct management decisions, as it provided data that could result in a lower occurrence of the more critical type II errors. Given that the 28 member states of the European Union are required to engage with the public health provisions of the revised Bathing Water Directive, issues of compliance, pertaining particularly to the management of bathing water resources, remain topical. Decision supports for managing bathing waters in the context of the Directive are likely to become the focus of much attention and although, the current study has been validated in bathing waters off the east coast of Ireland, the approach of using a deterministic and integrated catchment-coastal model for such purposes is easily transferable to other bathing water jurisdictions. PMID:26613350

  13. Statistical and Biophysical Models for Predicting Total and Outdoor Water Use in Los Angeles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mini, C.; Hogue, T. S.; Pincetl, S.

    2012-04-01

    Modeling water demand is a complex exercise in the choice of the functional form, techniques and variables to integrate in the model. The goal of the current research is to identify the determinants that control total and outdoor residential water use in semi-arid cities and to utilize that information in the development of statistical and biophysical models that can forecast spatial and temporal urban water use. The City of Los Angeles is unique in its highly diverse socio-demographic, economic and cultural characteristics across neighborhoods, which introduces significant challenges in modeling water use. Increasing climate variability also contributes to uncertainties in water use predictions in urban areas. Monthly individual water use records were acquired from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) for the 2000 to 2010 period. Study predictors of residential water use include socio-demographic, economic, climate and landscaping variables at the zip code level collected from US Census database. Climate variables are estimated from ground-based observations and calculated at the centroid of each zip code by inverse-distance weighting method. Remotely-sensed products of vegetation biomass and landscape land cover are also utilized. Two linear regression models were developed based on the panel data and variables described: a pooled-OLS regression model and a linear mixed effects model. Both models show income per capita and the percentage of landscape areas in each zip code as being statistically significant predictors. The pooled-OLS model tends to over-estimate higher water use zip codes and both models provide similar RMSE values.Outdoor water use was estimated at the census tract level as the residual between total water use and indoor use. This residual is being compared with the output from a biophysical model including tree and grass cover areas, climate variables and estimates of evapotranspiration at very high spatial resolution. A genetic algorithm based model (Shuffled Complex Evolution-UA; SCE-UA) is also being developed to provide estimates of the predictions and parameters uncertainties and to compare against the linear regression models. Ultimately, models will be selected to undertake predictions for a range of climate change and landscape scenarios. Finally, project results will contribute to a better understanding of water demand to help predict future water use and implement targeted landscaping conservation programs to maintain sustainable water needs for a growing population under uncertain climate variability.

  14. Uranium speciation in moorland river water samples: a comparison of experimental results and computer model predictions.

    PubMed

    Unsworth, Emily R; Jones, Phil; Cook, Jennifer M; Hill, Steve J

    2005-06-01

    An on-line method has been developed for separating inorganic and organic bound uranium species present in river water samples. The method utilised a small chelating resin (Hyphan) column incorporated into the sample introduction manifold of an ICP-MS instrument. The method was evaluated for samples from rivers on Dartmoor (Devon, UK), an area of granite overlain with peat bogs. The results indicate that organic-uranium species form a major proportion (80%) of the total dissolved uranium present. Further work with synthetic water samples indicated that the level of dissolved organic carbon played a greater role in determining the level of organic-uranium species than did sample pH. Computer models for the water samples were constructed using the WHAM program (incorporating uranium data from the Nuclear Energy Agency Thermochemical Database project) in order to predict the levels of organic-uranium species that would form. By varying the proportion of humic and fulvic acids used in the humic component, predictions within 10% of the experimental results were obtained. The program did exhibit a low bias at higher pH values (7.5) and low organic carbon concentrations (0.5 microg ml(-1)), but under the natural conditions prevalent in the Dartmoor water samples, the model predictions were successful. PMID:15931415

  15. Nestling activity levels during begging behaviour predicts activity level and body mass in adulthood

    PubMed Central

    Griffith, Simon C.

    2014-01-01

    Across a range of species including humans, personality traits, or differences in behaviour between individuals that are consistent over time, have been demonstrated. However, few studies have measured whether these consistent differences are evident in very young animals, and whether they persist over an individual’s entire lifespan. Here we investigated the begging behaviour of very young cross-fostered zebra finch nestlings and the relationship between that and adult activity levels. We found a link between the nestling activity behaviour head movements during begging, measured at just five and seven days after hatching, and adult activity levels, measured when individuals were between three and three and a half years old. Moreover, body mass was found to be negatively correlated with both nestling and adult activity levels, suggesting that individuals which carry less body fat as adults are less active both as adults and during begging as nestlings. Our work suggests that the personality traits identified here in both very young nestlings and adults may be linked to physiological factors such as metabolism or environmental sources of variation. Moreover, our work suggests it may be possible to predict an individual’s future adult personality at a very young age, opening up new avenues for future work to explore the relationship between personality and a number of aspects of individual life history and survival. PMID:25279258

  16. Ground-water levels in observation wells in Oklahoma, 1971-74

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Goemaat, Robert L.

    1976-01-01

    The objectives of the observation-well program are (1) to provide long-term records of water-level fluctuations in representative wells, (2) to facilitate the prediction of water-level trends and indicate the future availability of ground-water supplies, and (3) to provide information for use in basic research. These selected records serve as a framework to which other types of hydrologic data may be related. The stratigraphic nomenclature and age determinations used in this report are those accepted by the Oklahoma Geological Survey and do not necessarily agree with those of the U.S. Geological Survey.

  17. Predicting recreational water quality advisories: A comparison of statistical methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fienen, Michael J.; Carvin, Rebecca B.

    2016-01-01

    Epidemiological studies indicate that fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in beach water are associated with illnesses among people having contact with the water. In order to mitigate public health impacts, many beaches are posted with an advisory when the concentration of FIB exceeds a beach action value. The most commonly used method of measuring FIB concentration takes 18–24 h before returning a result. In order to avoid the 24 h lag, it has become common to ”nowcast” the FIB concentration using statistical regressions on environmental surrogate variables. Most commonly, nowcast models are estimated using ordinary least squares regression, but other regression methods from the statistical and machine learning literature are sometimes used. This study compares 14 regression methods across 7 Wisconsin beaches to identify which consistently produces the most accurate predictions. A random forest model is identified as the most accurate, followed by multiple regression fit using the adaptive LASSO.

  18. Predicting team output using indices at group level.

    PubMed

    Andrés, Amara; Salafranca, Lluís; Solanas, Antonio

    2011-11-01

    The present study explores the usefulness of dyadic quantification of group characteristics to predict team work performance. After reviewing the literature regarding team member characteristics predicting group performance, percentages of explained variance between 3% and 18% were found. These studies have followed an individualistic approach to measure group characteristics (e. g., mean and variance), based on aggregation. The aim of the present work was testing whether by means of dyadic measures group output prediction percentage could be increased. The basis of dyadic measures is data obtained from an interdependent pairs of individuals. Specifically, the present research was intended to develop a new dyadic index to measure personality dissimilarity in groups and to explore whether dyadic measurements allow improving groups' outcome predictions compared to individualistic methods. By means of linear regression, 49.5 % of group performance variance was explained using the skew-symmetry and the proposed dissimilarity index in personality as predictors. These results support the usefulness of the dyadic approach for predicting group outcomes. PMID:22059323

  19. Striatal volume predicts level of video game skill acquisition.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Basak, Chandramallika; Neider, Mark B; Prakash, Ruchika S; Voss, Michelle W; Graybiel, Ann M; Simons, Daniel J; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Kramer, Arthur F

    2010-11-01

    Video game skills transfer to other tasks, but individual differences in performance and in learning and transfer rates make it difficult to identify the source of transfer benefits. We asked whether variability in initial acquisition and of improvement in performance on a demanding video game, the Space Fortress game, could be predicted by variations in the pretraining volume of either of 2 key brain regions implicated in learning and memory: the striatum, implicated in procedural learning and cognitive flexibility, and the hippocampus, implicated in declarative memory. We found that hippocampal volumes did not predict learning improvement but that striatal volumes did. Moreover, for the striatum, the volumes of the dorsal striatum predicted improvement in performance but the volumes of the ventral striatum did not. Both ventral and dorsal striatal volumes predicted early acquisition rates. Furthermore, this early-stage correlation between striatal volumes and learning held regardless of the cognitive flexibility demands of the game versions, whereas the predictive power of the dorsal striatal volumes held selectively for performance improvements in a game version emphasizing cognitive flexibility. These findings suggest a neuroanatomical basis for the superiority of training strategies that promote cognitive flexibility and transfer to untrained tasks. PMID:20089946

  20. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A.; Abera, Metadel K.; Fanta, Solomon W.; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-01

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus × domestica Borkh. cv. ‘Jonagold’) during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick’s second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell’s rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range ( > 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical deformation.

  1. Prediction of water loss and viscoelastic deformation of apple tissue using a multiscale model.

    PubMed

    Aregawi, Wondwosen A; Abera, Metadel K; Fanta, Solomon W; Verboven, Pieter; Nicolai, Bart

    2014-11-19

    A two-dimensional multiscale water transport and mechanical model was developed to predict the water loss and deformation of apple tissue (Malus × domestica Borkh. cv. 'Jonagold') during dehydration. At the macroscopic level, a continuum approach was used to construct a coupled water transport and mechanical model. Water transport in the tissue was simulated using a phenomenological approach using Fick's second law of diffusion. Mechanical deformation due to shrinkage was based on a structural mechanics model consisting of two parts: Yeoh strain energy functions to account for non-linearity and Maxwell's rheological model of visco-elasticity. Apparent parameters of the macroscale model were computed from a microscale model. The latter accounted for water exchange between different microscopic structures of the tissue (intercellular space, the cell wall network and cytoplasm) using transport laws with the water potential as the driving force for water exchange between different compartments of tissue. The microscale deformation mechanics were computed using a model where the cells were represented as a closed thin walled structure. The predicted apparent water transport properties of apple cortex tissue from the microscale model showed good agreement with the experimentally measured values. Deviations between calculated and measured mechanical properties of apple tissue were observed at strains larger than 3%, and were attributed to differences in water transport behavior between the experimental compression tests and the simulated dehydration-deformation behavior. Tissue dehydration and deformation in the high relative humidity range ( > 97% RH) could, however, be accurately predicted by the multiscale model. The multiscale model helped to understand the dynamics of the dehydration process and the importance of the different microstructural compartments (intercellular space, cell wall, membrane and cytoplasm) for water transport and mechanical deformation. PMID:25347182

  2. Predicting habitat distribution to conserve seagrass threatened by sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunders, M. I.; Baldock, T.; Brown, C. J.; Callaghan, D. P.; Golshani, A.; Hamylton, S.; Hoegh-guldberg, O.; Leon, J. X.; Lovelock, C. E.; Lyons, M. B.; O'Brien, K.; Mumby, P.; Phinn, S. R.; Roelfsema, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) over the 21st century will cause significant redistribution of valuable coastal habitats. Seagrasses form extensive and highly productive meadows in shallow coastal seas support high biodiversity, including economically valuable and threatened species. Predictive habitat models can inform local management actions that will be required to conserve seagrass faced with multiple stressors. We developed novel modelling approaches, based on extensive field data sets, to examine the effects of sea level rise and other stressors on two representative seagrass habitats in Australia. First, we modelled interactive effects of SLR, water clarity and adjacent land use on estuarine seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland. The extent of suitable seagrass habitat was predicted to decline by 17% by 2100 due to SLR alone, but losses were predicted to be significantly reduced through improvements in water quality (Fig 1a) and by allowing space for seagrass migration with inundation. The rate of sedimentation in seagrass strongly affected the area of suitable habitat for seagrass in sea level rise scenarios (Fig 1b). Further research to understand spatial, temporal and environmental variability of sediment accretion in seagrass is required. Second, we modelled changes in wave energy distribution due to predicted SLR in a linked coral reef and seagrass ecosystem at Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Scenarios where the water depth over the coral reef deepened due to SLR and minimal reef accretion, resulted in larger waves propagating shoreward, changing the existing hydrodynamic conditions sufficiently to reduce area of suitable habitat for seagrass. In a scenario where accretion of the coral reef was severely compromised (e.g. warming, acidification, overfishing), the probability of the presence of seagrass declined significantly. Management to maintain coral health will therefore also benefit seagrasses subject to SLR in reef environments. Further disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on seagrass will be necessary to inform management of these valuable coastal ecosystems. Models such as these will be important sources of information for management agencies, which require specific information on the likely impacts of sea level rise in coastal areas.

  3. Predicting the intracellular water compartment using artificial neural network analysis.

    PubMed

    Mohamed, E I; Maiolo, C; Linder, R; Pöppl, S J; De Lorenzo, A

    2003-10-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANN) are used for a wide variety of data-processing applications such as predicting medical outcomes and classifying clinical data and patients. We investigated the applicability of an ANN for estimating the intracellular water compartment for a population of 104 healthy Italians ranging in age from 19 to 68 years. Anthropometric variables, bioelectric impedance analysis (BIA) variables, and reference values for intracellular water, measured using whole-body (40)K counting (ICW(K40)), were measured for all study participants. The anthropometric variables and the impedance index (height(2)/resistance) were fed to the ANN input layer, which produced as output the estimated values for intracellular water (ICW(ANN)). We also estimated intracellular water using a BIA formula for the same population (ICW(DeLorenzo)) and another for Caucasians (ICW(Gudivaka)). Errors in the estimations generated by ANN and the BIA equations were calculated as the root mean square error (RMSE). The mean (+/-SD) reference value (ICWK40) was 25.01+/-4.50 l, whereas the mean estimated value was 15.20+/-1.79 l (RMSE=11.06 l) when calculated using ICW(DeLorenzo), 18.07+/-1.14 l (RMSE=8.72 l) when using ICW(Gudivaka), and 25.01+/-2.74 l (RMSE=3.22 l) when using ICW(ANN). Based on these results, we deduce that the ANN algorithm is a more accurate predictor for reference ICW(K40) than BIA equations. PMID:14618426

  4. Relationships among gender, cognitive style, academic major, and performance on the Piaget water-level task.

    PubMed

    Hammer, R E; Hoffer, N; King, W L

    1995-06-01

    Many researchers have found that more college-age adults than would be expected fail Piaget's water-level task, with women failing more frequently than men. It has been hypothesized that differences in cognitive style may account for performance differences on the water-level task. In the present study, 27 male and 27 female architectural students and 27 male and 27 female liberal-arts students were assessed for their performance on both Piaget's Water-level Task and Witkin's Group Embedded Figures Test. No difference was found in performance of male and female architectural students on either task, but male liberal-arts students scored significantly higher than female liberal-arts students on both measures. A disembedding cognitive style predicted success on the water-level task for the architectural students but not for the liberal arts students. PMID:7567394

  5. Developing and implementing the use of predictive models for estimating water quality at Great Lakes beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, Donna S.; Brady, Amie M.G.; Carvin, Rebecca B.; Corsi, Steven R.; Fuller, Lori M.; Harrison, John H.; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Lant, Jeremiah; Nevers, Meredith B.; Terrio, Paul J.; Zimmerman, Tammy M.

    2013-01-01

    Predictive models have been used at beaches to improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water-quality assessments over the most common current approach to water-quality monitoring, which relies on culturing fecal-indicator bacteria such as Escherichia coli (E. coli.). Beach-specific predictive models use environmental and water-quality variables that are easily and quickly measured as surrogates to estimate concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria or to provide the probability that a State recreational water-quality standard will be exceeded. When predictive models are used for beach closure or advisory decisions, they are referred to as “nowcasts.” During the recreational seasons of 2010-12, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with 23 local and State agencies, worked to improve existing nowcasts at 4 beaches, validate predictive models at another 38 beaches, and collect data for predictive-model development at 7 beaches throughout the Great Lakes. This report summarizes efforts to collect data and develop predictive models by multiple agencies and to compile existing information on the beaches and beach-monitoring programs into one comprehensive report. Local agencies measured E. coli concentrations and variables expected to affect E. coli concentrations such as wave height, turbidity, water temperature, and numbers of birds at the time of sampling. In addition to these field measurements, equipment was installed by the USGS or local agencies at or near several beaches to collect water-quality and metrological measurements in near real time, including nearshore buoys, weather stations, and tributary staff gages and monitors. The USGS worked with local agencies to retrieve data from existing sources either manually or by use of tools designed specifically to compile and process data for predictive-model development. Predictive models were developed by use of linear regression and (or) partial least squares techniques for 42 beaches that had at least 2 years of data (2010-11 and sometimes earlier) and for 1 beach that had 1 year of data. For most models, software designed for model development by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (Virtual Beach) was used. The selected model for each beach was based on a combination of explanatory variables including, most commonly, turbidity, day of the year, change in lake level over 24 hours, wave height, wind direction and speed, and antecedent rainfall for various time periods. Forty-two predictive models were validated against data collected during an independent year (2012) and compared to the current method for assessing recreational water quality-using the previous day’s E. coli concentration (persistence model). Goals for good predictive-model performance were responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the persistence model and overall correct responses greater than or equal to 80 percent, sensitivities (percentage of exceedances of the bathing-water standard that were correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 50 percent, and specificities (percentage of nonexceedances correctly predicted by the model) greater than or equal to 85 percent. Out of 42 predictive models, 24 models yielded over-all correct responses that were at least 5 percent greater than the use of the persistence model. Predictive-model responses met the performance goals more often than the persistence-model responses in terms of overall correctness (28 versus 17 models, respectively), sensitivity (17 versus 4 models), and specificity (34 versus 25 models). Gaining knowledge of each beach and the factors that affect E. coli concentrations is important for developing good predictive models. Collection of additional years of data with a wide range of environmental conditions may also help to improve future model performance. The USGS will continue to work with local agencies in 2013 and beyond to develop and validate predictive models at beaches and improve existing nowcasts, restructuring monitoring activities to accommodate future uncertainties in funding and resources.

  6. 1. East side of lower dam shown with water level ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. East side of lower dam shown with water level dropped. VIEW WEST - Loleta Recreation Area, Lower Dam, 6 miles Southeast of interesection of State Route 24041 & State Route 66, Loleta, Elk County, PA

  7. 9. Close general view of movable span from water level, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    9. Close general view of movable span from water level, from west to cast piers, showing remnants of bumper piers. VIEW NORTHEAST - Broadway Bridge, Spanning Foundry Street, MBTA Yard, Fort Point Channel, & Lehigh Street, Boston, Suffolk County, MA

  8. 8. General view of movable span from water level, showing ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    8. General view of movable span from water level, showing piers turntable, movable span, parts of west land span and east viaduct. VIEW NORTHEAST - Broadway Bridge, Spanning Foundry Street, MBTA Yard, Fort Point Channel, & Lehigh Street, Boston, Suffolk County, MA

  9. 17. INTERIOR OF 1814 MILL TAILRACE WITH LEVEL OF WATER ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    17. INTERIOR OF 1814 MILL TAILRACE WITH LEVEL OF WATER BELOW DAM EVIDENT. WALL DIMLY VISIBLE AT REAR IS BRICKED UP ARCH IN FOUNDATION WALL OF THE MILL. - Boston Manufacturing Company, 144-190 Moody Street, Waltham, Middlesex County, MA

  10. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  11. RADIOLYTIC HYDROGEN GENERATION INSAVANNAH RIVER SITE (SRS) HIGH LEVEL WASTETANKS COMPARISON OF SRS AND HANFORDMODELING PREDICTIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, C; Ned Bibler, N

    2009-04-15

    In the high level waste tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS), hydrogen is produced continuously by interaction of the radiation in the tank with water in the waste. Consequently, the vapor spaces of the tanks are purged to prevent the accumulation of H{sub 2} and possible formation of a flammable mixture in a tank. Personnel at SRS have developed an empirical model to predict the rate of H{sub 2} formation in a tank. The basis of this model is the prediction of the G value for H{sub 2} production. This G value is the number of H{sub 2} molecules produced per 100 eV of radiolytic energy absorbed by the waste. Based on experimental studies it was found that the G value for H{sub 2} production from beta radiation and from gamma radiation were essentially equal. The G value for H{sub 2} production from alpha radiation was somewhat higher. Thus, the model has two equations, one for beta/gamma radiation and one for alpha radiation. Experimental studies have also indicated that both G values are decreased by the presence of nitrate and nitrite ions in the waste. These are the main scavengers for the precursors of H{sub 2} in the waste; thus the equations that were developed predict G values for hydrogen production as a function of the concentrations of these two ions in waste. Knowing the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads in the waste allows one to predict the total generation rate for hydrogen in a tank. With this prediction a ventilation rate can be established for each tank to ensure that a flammable mixture is not formed in the vapor space in a tank. Recently personnel at Hanford have developed a slightly different model for predicting hydrogen G values. Their model includes the same precursor for H{sub 2} as the SRS model but also includes an additional precursor not in the SRS model. Including the second precursor for H{sub 2} leads to different empirical equations for predicting the G values for H{sub 2} as a function of the nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the waste. The difference in the two models has led to the questions of how different are the results predicted by the two models and which model predicts the more conservative (larger) G values. More conservative G values would predict higher H{sub 2} generation rates that would require higher ventilation rates in the SRS tanks. This report compares predictions based on the two models at various nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the SRS HLW tanks for both beta/gamma and for alpha radiation. It also compares predicted G values with those determined by actually measuring the H{sub 2} production from four SRS HLW tanks (Tanks 32H, 35H, 39H, and 42H). Lastly, the H{sub 2} generation rates predicted by the two models are compared for the 47 active SRS high level waste tanks using the most recent tank nitrate and nitrite concentrations and the beta/gamma and alpha heat loads for each tank. The predictions of the models for total H{sub 2} generation rates from the 47 active SRS waste were, for the most part, similar. For example, the predictions for both models applied to 25 tanks agreed within {+-}10% of each other. For the remaining 22 tanks, the SRS prediction was more conservative for 9 tanks (maximum 29% higher) and the Hanford prediction was more conservative for 13 tanks (maximum 19% higher). When comparing G values predicted by the equations presuming only alpha radiation or only beta/gamma was present the results were somewhat different. The results of predictions for alpha radiation, at the 47 current nitrate and nitrite concentrations in the SRS tanks indicated that all the SRS predictions were higher (up to 30%) than the Hanford predictions and thus more conservative. For beta/gamma radiation the predictions for both models agreed to {+-}10% for 18 of the combinations, the Hanford model predicted higher values (11 up to 17%) for 25 of the concentrations considered, and the SRS model predicted higher G values for the remaining two combinations (12 and 17%). For the four SRS tanks, where we compared measured G values to those predicted by the two different models, the results for two tanks (Tanks 35 and 39) were in good agreement with predictions from both models. For the other two tanks (Tanks 32 and 42) the predictions of both models were conservative. The predictions were 3 to 4X higher than the measured G values for H{sub 2} production.

  12. Predicting Change in Eelgrass Distribution Due to Sea Level Rise

    EPA Science Inventory

    The eelgrass species Zostera marina is the dominant estuarine seagrass on the Pacific Northwest coast of North America and provides important ecosystem services and functions. The loss of eelgrass bed acreage due to environmental pressures is of world-wide concern, yet predicted ...

  13. Ground-water levels in Arkansas, Spring 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Edds, J.

    1984-01-01

    The report contains 680 ground-water level measurements made in observation wells in Arkansas in the Spring of 1984. In addition, the report contains well hydrographs relating to the alluvial aquifer and the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand aquifers, the most important aquifers with respect to ground-water availability and use in Arkansas. 18 refs., 14 tabs.

  14. Geomorphological evidence of water level changes in Nepenthes Mensae, Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Pablo, Miguel Ángel; Pacifici, Andrea

    2008-08-01

    In the western sector of Nepenthes Mensae, Mars, there are some geomorphological features that could be related to a standing water sheet in the area, such as fluvial terraces, deltas and shorelines. A detailed analysis of these features reveals two variations in water level, probably related to tectonic processes, as suggested by the existence of a fissural volcano at this site.

  15. Predicting groundwater level fluctuations with meteorological effect implications—A comparative study among soft computing techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiri, Jalal; Kisi, Ozgur; Yoon, Heesung; Lee, Kang-Kun; Hossein Nazemi, Amir

    2013-07-01

    The knowledge of groundwater table fluctuations is important in agricultural lands as well as in the studies related to groundwater utilization and management levels. This paper investigates the abilities of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques for groundwater level forecasting in following day up to 7-day prediction intervals. Several input combinations comprising water table level, rainfall and evapotranspiration values from Hongcheon Well station (South Korea), covering a period of eight years (2001-2008) were used to develop and test the applied models. The data from the first six years were used for developing (training) the applied models and the last two years data were reserved for testing. A comparison was also made between the forecasts provided by these models and the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) technique. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the GEP models could be employed successfully in forecasting water table level fluctuations up to 7 days beyond data records.

  16. Data assimilation in optimizing and integrating soil and water quality water model predictions at different scales

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Relevant data about subsurface water flow and solute transport at relatively large scales that are of interest to the public are inherently laborious and in most cases simply impossible to obtain. Upscaling in which fine-scale models and data are used to predict changes at the coarser scales is the...

  17. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    PubMed Central

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  18. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  19. Predicting FCAT Reading Scores Using the Reading-Level Indicator

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanley, Nile; Stanley, Laurel

    2011-01-01

    Multiple regression analysis indicates that the Reading-Level Indicator, a paper-and-pencil test, is a moderately strong predictor for the high-stakes standardized test, the Florida Comprehensive Achievement Test in Reading. Classroom teachers can administer the inexpensive Reading-Level Indicator in a short period of time and use the results as a…

  20. Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

    2015-03-01

    Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

  1. Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

    EPA Science Inventory

    Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

  2. Prediction of underwater sound levels from rain and wind.

    PubMed

    Ma, Barry B; Nystuen, Jeffrey A; Lien, Ren-Chieh

    2005-06-01

    Wind and rain generated ambient sound from the ocean surface represents the background baseline of ocean noise. Understanding these ambient sounds under different conditions will facilitate other scientific studies. For example, measurement of the processes producing the sound, assessment of sonar performance, and helping to understand the influence of anthropogenic generated noise on marine mammals. About 90 buoy-months of ocean ambient sound data have been collected using Acoustic Rain Gauges in different open-ocean locations in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. Distinct ambient sound spectra for various rainfall rates and wind speeds are identified through a series of discrimination processes. Five divisions of the sound spectra associated with different sound generating mechanisms can be predicted using wind speed and rainfall rate as input variables. The ambient sound data collected from the Intertropical Convergence Zone are used to construct the prediction algorithms, and are tested on the data from the Western Pacific Warm Pool. This physically based semi-empirical model predicts the ambient sound spectra (0.5-50 kHz) at rainfall rates from 2-200 mm/h and wind speeds from 2 to 14 m/s. PMID:16018459

  3. PLIO: a generic tool for real-time operational predictive optimal control of water networks.

    PubMed

    Cembrano, G; Quevedo, J; Puig, V; Pérez, R; Figueras, J; Verdejo, J M; Escaler, I; Ramón, G; Barnet, G; Rodríguez, P; Casas, M

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a generic tool, named PLIO, that allows to implement the real-time operational control of water networks. Control strategies are generated using predictive optimal control techniques. This tool allows the flow management in a large water supply and distribution system including reservoirs, open-flow channels for water transport, water treatment plants, pressurized water pipe networks, tanks, flow/pressure control elements and a telemetry/telecontrol system. Predictive optimal control is used to generate flow control strategies from the sources to the consumer areas to meet future demands with appropriate pressure levels, optimizing operational goals such as network safety volumes and flow control stability. PLIO allows to build the network model graphically and then to automatically generate the model equations used by the predictive optimal controller. Additionally, PLIO can work off-line (in simulation) and on-line (in real-time mode). The case study of Santiago-Chile is presented to exemplify the control results obtained using PLIO off-line (in simulation). PMID:22097020

  4. Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arns, Arne; Wahl, Thomas; Haigh, Ivan D.; Jensen, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    We estimate return periods and levels of extreme still water levels for the highly vulnerable and historically and culturally important small marsh islands known as the Halligen, located in the Wadden Sea offshore of the coast of northern Germany. This is a challenging task as only few water level records are available for this region, and they are currently too short to apply traditional extreme value analysis methods. Therefore, we use the Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) approach. This originates from hydrology but has been used before in several coastal studies and is also currently applied by the local federal administration responsible for coastal protection in the study area. The RFA enables us to indirectly estimate return levels by transferring hydrological information from gauged to related ungauged sites. Our analyses highlight that this methodology has some drawbacks and may over- or underestimate return levels compared to direct analyses using station data. To overcome these issues, we present an alternative approach, combining numerical and statistical models. First, we produced a numerical multidecadal model hindcast of water levels for the entire North Sea. Predicted water levels from the hindcast are bias corrected using the information from the available tide gauge records. Hence, the simulated water levels agree well with the measured water levels at gauged sites. The bias correction is then interpolated spatially to obtain correction functions for the simulated water levels at each coastal and island model grid point in the study area. Using a recommended procedure to conduct extreme value analyses from a companion study, return water levels suitable for coastal infrastructure design are estimated continuously along the entire coastline of the study area, including the offshore islands. A similar methodology can be applied in other regions of the world where tide gauge observations are sparse.

  5. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Equations for predicting soil loss due to water... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  6. Origin of elevated water levels encountered in Pahute Mesa emplacement boreholes: Preliminary investigations

    SciTech Connect

    Brikowski, T.; Chapman, J.; Lyles, B.; Hokett, S.

    1993-11-01

    The presence of standing water well above the predicted water table in emplacement boreholes on Pahute Mesa has been a recurring phenomenon at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). If these levels represent naturally perched aquifers, they may indicate a radionuclide migration hazard. In any case, they can pose engineering problems in the performance of underground nuclear tests. The origin of these elevated waters is uncertain. Large volumes of water are introduced during emplacement drilling, providing ample source for artificially perched water, yet elevated water levels can remain constant for years, suggesting a natural origin instead. In an effort to address the issue of unexpected standing water in emplacement boreholes, three different sites were investigated in Area 19 on Pahute Mesa by Desert Research Institute (DRI) staff from 1990-93. These sites were U-19az, U-19ba, and U-19bh. As of this writing, U-19bh remains available for access; however, nuclear tests were conducted at the former two locations subsequent to this investigations. The experiments are discussed in chronological order. Taken together, the experiments indicate that standing water in Pahute Mesa emplacement holes originates from the drainage of small-volume naturally perched zones. In the final study, the fluids used during drilling of the bottom 100 m of emplacement borehole U-19bh were labeled with a chemical tracer. After hole completion, water level rose in the borehole, while tracer concentration decreased. In fact, total mass of tracer in the borehole remained constant, while water levels rose. After water levels stabilized in this hole, no change in tracer mass was observed over two years, indicating that no movement of water out of the borehole is taking place (as at U- 19ba). Continued labeling tests of standing water are recommended to confirm the conclusions made here, and to establish their validity throughout Pahute Mesa.

  7. ELEVATED LEVELS OF SODIUM IN COMMUNITY DRINKING WATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    A comparison study of students from towns with differing levels of sodium in drinking water revealed statistically significantly higher blood pressure distributions among the students from the town with high sodium levels. Differences were found in both systolic and diastolic rea...

  8. Impact of Plumbing Age on Copper Levels in Drinking Water

    EPA Science Inventory

    Theory and limited practical experiences suggest that higher copper levels in drinking water tap samples are typically associated with newer plumbing systems, and levels decrease with increasing plumbing age. Past researchers have developed a conceptual model to explain the “agin...

  9. Effects of water turbidity and salt concentration levels on penetration of solar radiation under water

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, J.; Seyed-Yagoobi, J. )

    1994-05-01

    Two large, outdoor tanks were constructed in order to investigate the effects of water turbidity and salt concentration levels at various depths of water on penetration of solar radiation. These experiments were followed by a laboratory investigation that measured spectral transmittance and the extinction coefficient of water at different salt concentrations and turbidity levels. Both the outdoor and laboratory results indicate that the salt concentration level does not significantly affect solar radiation penetration. However, water clarity, quantified in terms of the turbidity level, plays a critical role on the magnitude of the solar radiation penetration, with the effect of turbidity on penetration increasing with the depth of water. A best-fit model is developed that gives the solar radiation penetration as a function of turbidity level and depth of water.

  10. Expanded prediction equations of human sweat loss and water needs.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, R R; Cheuvront, S N; Montain, S J; Goodman, D A; Blanchard, L A; Berglund, L G; Sawka, M N

    2009-08-01

    The Institute of Medicine expressed a need for improved sweating rate (msw) prediction models that calculate hourly and daily water needs based on metabolic rate, clothing, and environment. More than 25 years ago, the original Shapiro prediction equation (OSE) was formulated as msw (g.m(-2).h(-1))=27.9.Ereq.(Emax)(-0.455), where Ereq is required evaporative heat loss and Emax is maximum evaporative power of the environment; OSE was developed for a limited set of environments, exposures times, and clothing systems. Recent evidence shows that OSE often overpredicts fluid needs. Our study developed a corrected OSE and a new msw prediction equation by using independent data sets from a wide range of environmental conditions, metabolic rates (rest to 500 observations) by using a variety of metabolic rates over a range of environmental conditions (ambient temperature, 15-46 degrees C; water vapor pressure, 0.27-4.45 kPa; wind speed, 0.4-2.5 m/s), clothing, and equipment combinations and durations (2-8 h). Data are expressed as grams per square meter per hour and were analyzed using fuzzy piecewise regression. OSE overpredicted sweating rates (P<0.003) compared with observed msw. Both the correction equation (OSEC), msw=147.exp (0.0012.OSE), and a new piecewise (PW) equation, msw=147+1.527.Ereq-0.87.Emax were derived, compared with OSE, and then cross-validated against independent data (21 males and 9 females; >200 observations). OSEC and PW were more accurate predictors of sweating rate (58 and 65% more accurate, P<0.01) and produced minimal error (standard error estimate<100 g.m(-2).h(-1)) for conditions both within and outside the original OSE domain of validity. The new equations provide for more accurate sweat predictions over a broader range of conditions with applications to public health, military, occupational, and sports medicine settings. PMID:19407259

  11. Numerical simulation of the impacts of water level variation on water age in Dahuofang Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xinwen; Shen, Yongming

    2015-06-01

    The transport timescales were investigated in response to water level variation under different constant flow rates in Dahuofang Reservoir. The concept of water age was applied to quantify the transport timescales. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). The model was calibrated for water surface elevation and temperature profiles from April 1, 2008 to October 31, 2008. Comparisons of observed and modeled data showed that the model reproduced the water level fluctuation and thermal stratification during warm season and vertical mixing during cold season fairly well. The calibrated model was then applied to investigate the response of water age to water level changes in Dahuofang Reservoir. Model results showed that water age increases from confluence toward dam zone. In the vertical direction, the water age is relatively uniform at upstream and stratifies further downstream, with a larger value at bottom layer than at surface layer. Comparisons demonstrated that water level variation has a significant impact on transport timescales in the reservoir. The impact of water level drawdown on water age is stronger at bottom layer than at surface layer. Under high flow conditions, the water age decreases 0-20 days at surface layer and 15-25 days at bottom layer. Under mean flow conditions, the water age decreases 20-30 days at surface layer and 30-50 days at bottom layer. Furthermore, the impact is minor in the upstream and increases further downstream. The vertical stratification of water age weakens as the water level decreases. This study provides a numerical tool to quantify the transport timescale in Dahuofang Reservoir and supports adaptive management of regional water resources by local authorities.

  12. Analysis for water level data for Everglades National Park, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Buchanan, T.J.; Hartwell, J.H.

    1972-01-01

    Stage-duration curves were developed for five gaging stations in Everglades National Park, Florida. Four of the five curves show similar characteristics with an increase in the slope when the water level is below land surface. Monthly stage-duration curves, developed for one of the stations, reflect the seasonal trends of the water level. Recession curves were prepared for the same five stations. These curves represent the average water-level decline during periods of little or no rainfall. They show the decline in level at the end of 10, 20, and 60 days for any given initial stage. A family of curves was also prepared to give the recession from various initial stages for any period up to 60 days.

  13. Validation of Aircraft Noise Prediction Models at Low Levels of Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Page, Juliet A.; Hobbs, Christopher M.; Plotkin, Kenneth J.; Stusnick, Eric; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Aircraft noise measurements were made at Denver International Airport for a period of four weeks. Detailed operational information was provided by airline operators which enabled noise levels to be predicted using the FAA's Integrated Noise Model. Several thrust prediction techniques were evaluated. Measured sound exposure levels for departure operations were found to be 4 to 10 dB higher than predicted, depending on the thrust prediction technique employed. Differences between measured and predicted levels are shown to be related to atmospheric conditions present at the aircraft altitude.

  14. Great Lakes Water Levels Bounce Back After Record Lows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-12-01

    Water levels in the Great Lakes have rebounded dramatically from historic lows in December 2012 and January 2013, though the levels still remain lower than average in some of the lakes, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said during a 20 November briefing. The low lake levels had hampered shipping and other commercial and recreational uses of the waterways.

  15. Orion Crew Member Injury Predictions during Land and Water Landings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Charles; Littell, Justin D.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Tabiei, Ala

    2008-01-01

    A review of astronaut whole body impact tolerance is discussed for land or water landings of the next generation manned space capsule named Orion. LS-DYNA simulations of Orion capsule landings are performed to produce a low, moderate, and high probability of injury. The paper evaluates finite element (FE) seat and occupant simulations for assessing injury risk for the Orion crew and compares these simulations to whole body injury models commonly referred to as the Brinkley criteria. The FE seat and crash dummy models allow for varying the occupant restraint systems, cushion materials, side constraints, flailing of limbs, and detailed seat/occupant interactions to minimize landing injuries to the crew. The FE crash test dummies used in conjunction with the Brinkley criteria provides a useful set of tools for predicting potential crew injuries during vehicle landings.

  16. Predicting water quality in unmonitored watersheds using artificial neural networks.

    PubMed

    Kalin, Latif; Isik, Sabahattin; Schoonover, Jon E; Lockaby, B Graeme

    2010-01-01

    Land use and land cover (LULC) play a central role in fate and transport of water quality (WQ) parameters in watersheds. Developing relationships between LULC and WQ parameters is essential for evaluating the quality of water resources. In this paper, we present an artificial neural network (ANN)-based methodology to predict WQ parameters in watersheds with no prior WQ data. The model relies on LULC percentages, temperature, and stream discharge as inputs. The approach is applied to 18 watersheds in west Georgia, United States, having a LULC gradient and varying in size from 2.96 to 26.59 km2. Out of 18 watersheds, 12 were used for training, 3 for validation, and 3 for testing the ANN model. The WQ parameters tested are total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), chlorine (Cl), nitrate (NO3), sulfate (SO4), sodium (Na), potassium (K), total phosphorus (TP), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Model performances are evaluated on the basis of a performance rating system whereby performances are categorized as unsatisfactory, satisfactory, good, or very good. Overall, the ANN models developed using the training data performed quite well in the independent test watersheds. Based on the rating system TDS, Cl, NO3, SO4, Na, K, and DOC had a performance of at least "good" in all three test watersheds. The average performance for TSS and TP in the three test watersheds were "good." Overall the model performed better in the pastoral and forested watersheds with an average rating of "very good." The average model performance at the urban watershed was "good." This study showed that if WQ and LULC data are available from multiple watersheds in an area with relatively similar physiographic properties, then one can successfully predict the impact of LULC changes on WQ in any nearby watershed. PMID:20830930

  17. Global Gray Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels Related to Anthropogenic Nitrogen Loads to Fresh Water.

    PubMed

    Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2015-11-01

    This is the first global assessment of nitrogen-related water pollution in river basins with a specification of the pollution by economic sector, and by crop for the agricultural sector. At a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 arc minute, we estimate anthropogenic nitrogen (N) loads to freshwater, calculate the resultant gray water footprints (GWFs), and relate the GWFs per river basin to runoff to calculate the N-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment. The accumulated global GWF related to anthropogenic N loads in the period 2002-2010 was 13×10(12) m3/y. China contributed about 45% to the global total. Three quarters of the GWF related to N loads came from diffuse sources (agriculture), 23% from domestic point sources and 2% from industrial point sources. Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the N-related GWF (18%), followed by vegetables (15%) and oil crops (11%). The river basins with WPL>1 (where the N load exceeds the basin's assimilation capacity), cover about 17% of the global land area, contribute about 9% of the global river discharge, and provide residence to 48% of the global population. PMID:26440220

  18. Predicting Water Activity for Complex Wastes with Solvation Cluster Equilibria (SCE) - 12042

    SciTech Connect

    Agnew, S.F.; Reynolds, J.G.; Johnston, C.T.

    2012-07-01

    Predicting an electrolyte mixture's water activity, i.e. the ratio of water vapor pressure over a solution with that of pure water, in principle reveals both boiling point and solubilities for that mixture. Better predictions of these properties helps support the ongoing missions to concentrate complex nuclear waste mixtures in order to conserve tank space and improved predictions of water activity will help. A new approach for predicting water activity, the solvation cluster equilibria (SCE) model, uses pure electrolyte water activities to predict water activity for a complex mixture of those electrolytes. An SCE function based on electrolyte hydration free energy and a standard Debye- Hueckel (DH) charge compression fits each pure electrolyte's water activity with three parameters. Given these pure electrolyte water activities, the SCE predicts any mixture water activity over a large range of concentration with an additional parameter for each mixture vector, the multinarity. In contrast to ionic strength, which scales with concentration, multinarity is related to the relative proportion of electrolytes in a mixture and can either increase or decrease the water activity prediction over a broad range of concentration for that mixture. The SCE model predicts water activity for complex electrolyte mixtures based on the water activities of pure electrolytes. Three parameter SCE functions fit the water activities of pure electrolytes and along with a single multinarity parameter for each mixture vector then predict the mixture water activity. Predictions of water activity can in principle predict solution electrolyte activity and this relationship will be explored in the future. Predicting electrolyte activities for complex mixtures provides a means of determining solubilities for each electrolyte. Although there are a number of reports [9, 10, 11] of water activity models for pure and binary mixtures of electrolytes, none of them compare measured versus calculated water activity for more complex mixtures. (authors)

  19. Predicting the Proficiency Level of Language Learners Using Lexical Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossley, Scott A.; Salsbury, Tom; McNamara, Danielle S.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores how second language (L2) texts written by learners at various proficiency levels can be classified using computational indices that characterize lexical competence. For this study, 100 writing samples taken from 100 L2 learners were analyzed using lexical indices reported by the computational tool Coh-Metrix. The L2 writing…

  20. Predicting Stability of Air--Water Interface on Superhydrophobic Surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emami, B.; Vahedi Tafreshi, H.; Gad-El-Hak, M.; Tepper, G. C.

    2011-11-01

    In this work, two different methodologies for predicting the stability of the air-water interface on submerged superhydrophobic surfaces are presented. The first method is an analytical approach developed by balancing the hydrostatic pressure with the capillary forces over the interface, and results in a second-order partial differential equation. The solution to this equation provides the 3-D interface shape and the critical pressure beyond which the superhydrophobic surface departs from the Cassie state. The second method presented here is an approximate numerical technique based on the so called Full Morphology method in which the Young-Laplace equation is used to relate a capillary pressure to the most constricted opening of the pore space between the peaks of the surface roughness. Predictions of the methods presented in this study are compared with the available studies in the literature (Applied Physics Letters 98:20, 203106, 2011). Financial support from DARPA, contract number W91CRB-10-1-0003, is acknowledged.

  1. Methodology for predicting cooling water effects on fish

    SciTech Connect

    Cakiroglu, C.; Yurteri, C.

    1998-07-01

    The mathematical model presented here predicts the long-term effects of once-through cooling water systems on local fish populations. The fish life cycle model simulates different life stages of fish by using appropriate expressions representing growth and mortality rates. The heart of the developed modeling approach is the prediction of plant-caused reduction in total fish population by estimating recruitment to adult population with and without entrainment of ichthyoplankton and impingement of small fish. The model was applied to a local fish species, gilthead (Aparus aurata), for the case of a proposed power plant in the Aegean region of Turkey. The simulations indicate that entrainment and impingement may lead to a population reduction of about 2% to 8% in the long run. In many cases, an impact of this size can be considered rather unimportant. In the case of sensitive and ecologically values species facing extinction, however, necessary precautions should be taken to minimize or totally avoid such an impact.

  2. Predicted transport of pyrethroid insecticides from an urban landscape to surface water.

    PubMed

    Jorgenson, Brant; Fleishman, Erica; Macneale, Kate H; Schlenk, Daniel; Scholz, Nathaniel L; Spromberg, Julann A; Werner, Inge; Weston, Donald P; Xiao, Qingfu; Young, Thomas M; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-11-01

    The authors developed a simple screening-level model of exposure of aquatic species to pyrethroid insecticides for the lower American River watershed (California, USA). The model incorporated both empirically derived washoff functions based on existing, small-scale precipitation simulations and empirical data on pyrethroid insecticide use and watershed properties for Sacramento County, California, USA. The authors calibrated the model to in-stream monitoring data and used it to predict daily river pyrethroid concentration from 1995 through 2010. The model predicted a marked increase in pyrethroid toxic units starting in 2000, coincident with an observed watershed-wide increase in pyrethroid use. After 2000, approximately 70% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure in the watershed was associated with the pyrethroids bifenthrin and cyfluthrin. Pyrethroid applications for aboveground structural pest control on the basis of suspension concentrate categorized product formulations accounted for greater than 97% of the predicted total toxic unit exposure. Projected application of mitigation strategies, such as curtailment of structural perimeter band and barrier treatments as recently adopted by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation, reduced predicted total toxic unit exposure by 84%. The model also predicted that similar reductions in surface-water concentrations of pyrethroids could be achieved through a switch from suspension concentrate-categorized products to emulsifiable concentrate-categorized products without restrictions on current-use practice. Even with these mitigation actions, the predicted concentration of some pyrethroids would continue to exceed chronic aquatic life criteria. PMID:24115122

  3. Regional and State Level Water Scarcity Report: Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicoletti, C. K.; Lopez-Morales, C. A.; Hoover, J. H.; Voigt, B. G.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Mohammed, I. N.

    2010-12-01

    There are an abundance of large-scale, coarse resolution global water scarcity studies, but the existing literature fails to address regional and state specific scarcity measures. Moreover, while environmental water requirements are an integral factor in the development and implementation of sustainable water management practices, only recently has this notion been introduced to water scarcity research. In this paper, we argue that developing a preliminary measure of water scarcity, at the regional and state levels, will allow for more informed policy development. The goal of this study is to generate a more comprehensive understanding of water scarcity in the Northeast, by gathering fine scale data, applying a consistent methodology to the calculation of a scarcity index, and analyzing the results to see relative trends in spatio-temporal water scarcity. Public supply, irrigation, rural, industrial and thermo-power withdrawals have been compiled from USGS state water use publications from 1950 to 1985. Using the WBMplus water model runoff data, state specific in-stream environmental water requirements were calculated using the accepted hydro-ecological methodology. Water scarcity was then calculated as a ratio of water withdrawals to total available water minus environmental flow requirements for the system. In so doing, this study generates a spatially explicit and temporally varying water scarcity indicator (WSI) for the Northeastern United States between 1950 and 2000 at the regional and state levels at a five-year time interval. Calculation of a spatial and temporal water scarcity indicator enabled us to identify regions and specific states that were: slightly exploited (WSI < 0.3), moderately exploited (0.31.0). The minimum environmental water requirements to maintain in-stream aquatic and riparian ecosystems for the Northeastern states ranged between 27.5 to 36.3 percent of the mean annual runoff within Vermont and Maryland, respectively. The regional WSI values ranged between 0.199 in 1950 and 0.512 in 1995, indicating increasing water scarcity over time as population and employment growth has placed greater demands on water resources. Additionally, our study revealed that in 1980, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and New Jersey scarcity levels were 0.733, 0.790 and 0.857, respectively. Although the Northeastern United States is commonly perceived as a water rich region, moderate to heavily exploited levels of water stress were observed over the time period when a finer spatial scale is utilized. Water scarcity indicator values were disaggregated by state for each time period and illustrated using a series of maps. Additional descriptive statistics were used to elucidate the differences in water scarcity between states over time.

  4. Subsidence at the Fairport Harbor Water Level Gauge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conner, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    SUBSIDENCE AT THE FAIRPORT HARBOR WATER LEVEL GAUGE I will provide information on methods being used to monitor Lake Erie water levels and earth movement at Fairport Harbor, Ohio. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is responsible for vertical movement throughout the Great Lakes region. Fairport Harbor is also experiencing vertical movement due to salt mining, so the nearby water level gauge operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is affected by both GIA and mining. NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (NGS) defines and maintains the National Spatial Reference System (NSRS). The NSRS includes a network of permanently marked points; a consistent, accurate, and up-to-date national shoreline; a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS) which supports three-dimensional positioning activities; and a set of accurate models describing dynamic, geophysical processes that affect spatial measurements. The NSRS provides the spatial reference foundation for transportation, mapping, charting and a multitude of scientific and engineering applications. Fundamental elements of geodetic infrastructure include GPS CORS (3-D), water level and tide gauges (height) and a system of vertical bench marks (height). When two or more of these elements converge they may provide an independent determination of position and vertical stability as is the case here at the Fairport Harbor water level gauge. Analysis of GPS, leveling and water level data reveal that this gauge is subsiding at about 2-3 mm/year, independent of the effects of GIA. Analysis of data from the nearby OHLA GPS CORS shows it subsiding at about 4 mm/yr, four times faster than expected due to GIA alone. A long history of salt mine activity in the area is known to geologists but it came as a surprise to other scientists.

  5. A Methylmercury Prediction Too For Surface Waters Across The Contiguous United States (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krabbenhoft, D. P.; Booth, N.; Lutz, M.; Fienen, M. N.; Saltman, T.

    2009-12-01

    About 20 years ago, researchers at a few locations across the globe discovered high levels of mercury in fish from remote settings lacking any obvious mercury source. We now know that for most locations atmospheric deposition is the dominant mercury source, and that mercury methylation is the key process that translates low mercury loading rates into relatively high levels in top predators of aquatic food webs. Presently, almost all US states have advisories for elevated levels of mercury in sport fish, and as a result there is considerable public awareness and concern for this nearly ubiquitous contaminant issue. In some states, “statewide” advisories have been issued because elevated fish mercury levels are so common, or the state has no effective way to monitor thousands of lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and streams. As such, resource managers and public health officials have limited options for informing the public on of where elevated mercury concentrations in sport fish are more likely to occur than others. This project provides, for the first time, a national map of predicted (modeled) methylmercury concentrations in surface waters, which is the most toxic and bioaccumulative form of mercury in the environment. The map is the result of over two decades of research that resulted in the formulation of conceptual models of the mercury methylation process, which is strongly governed by environmental conditions - specifically hydrologic landscapes and water quality. The resulting predictive map shows clear regional trends in the distribution of methylmercury concentrations in surface waters. East of the Mississippi, the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coast, the northeast, the lower Mississippi valley, and Great Lakes area are predicted to have generally higher environmental methylmercury levels. Higher-elevation, well-drained areas of Appalachia are predicted to have relatively lower methylmercury abundance. Other than the prairie pothole region, in the western US incessant regional patterns are less clear. However, the full range of predicted methylmercury levels are predicted to occur in western US watersheds. Lastly, although this map is being presented at the continental US scale, the principles used to generate the modeled results can easily applied to data sets that represent a range of geographic scales.

  6. Inter-comparison of time series models of lake levels predicted by several modeling strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khatibi, R.; Ghorbani, M. A.; Naghipour, L.; Jothiprakash, V.; Fathima, T. A.; Fazelifard, M. H.

    2014-04-01

    Five modeling strategies are employed to analyze water level time series of six lakes with different physical characteristics such as shape, size, altitude and range of variations. The models comprise chaos theory, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) - treated for seasonality and hence SARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Each is formulated on a different premise with different underlying assumptions. Chaos theory is elaborated in a greater detail as it is customary to identify the existence of chaotic signals by a number of techniques (e.g. average mutual information and false nearest neighbors) and future values are predicted using the Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) technique. This paper takes a critical view of past inter-comparison studies seeking a superior performance, against which it is reported that (i) the performances of all five modeling strategies vary from good to poor, hampering the recommendation of a clear-cut predictive model; (ii) the performances of the datasets of two cases are consistently better with all five modeling strategies; (iii) in other cases, their performances are poor but the results can still be fit-for-purpose; (iv) the simultaneous good performances of NLP and SARIMA pull their underlying assumptions to different ends, which cannot be reconciled. A number of arguments are presented including the culture of pluralism, according to which the various modeling strategies facilitate an insight into the data from different vantages.

  7. Prediction of Turbulent Jet Mixing Noise Reduction by Water Injection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kandula, Max

    2008-01-01

    A one-dimensional control volume formulation is developed for the determination of jet mixing noise reduction due to water injection. The analysis starts from the conservation of mass, momentum and energy for the confrol volume, and introduces the concept of effective jet parameters (jet temperature, jet velocity and jet Mach number). It is shown that the water to jet mass flow rate ratio is an important parameter characterizing the jet noise reduction on account of gas-to-droplet momentum and heat transfer. Two independent dimensionless invariant groups are postulated, and provide the necessary relations for the droplet size and droplet Reynolds number. Results are presented illustrating the effect of mass flow rate ratio on the jet mixing noise reduction for a range of jet Mach number and jet Reynolds number. Predictions from the model show satisfactory comparison with available test data on perfectly expanded hot supersonic jets. The results suggest that significant noise reductions can be achieved at increased flow rate ratios.

  8. Perchlorate levels in soil and waters from the Atacama Desert.

    PubMed

    Calderón, R; Palma, P; Parker, D; Molina, M; Godoy, F A; Escudey, M

    2014-02-01

    Perchlorate is an anion that originates as a contaminant in ground and surface waters. The presence of perchlorate in soil and water samples from northern Chile (Atacama Desert) was investigated by ion chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry. Results indicated that perchlorate was found in five of seven soils (cultivated and uncultivated) ranging from 290 ± 1 to 2,565 ± 2 μg/kg. The greatest concentration of perchlorate was detected in Humberstone soil (2,565 ± 2 μg/kg) associated with nitrate deposits. Perchlorate levels in Chilean soils are greater than those reported for uncultivated soils in the United States. Perchlorate was also found in superficial running water ranging from 744 ± 0.01 to 1,480 ± 0.02 μg/L. Perchlorate water concentration is 30-60 times greater than levels established by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (24.5 μg/L) for drinking. PMID:24165784

  9. Reduction in predicted survival times in cold water due to wind and waves.

    PubMed

    Power, Jonathan; Simões Ré, António; Barwood, Martin; Tikuisis, Peter; Tipton, Michael

    2015-07-01

    Recent marine accidents have called into question the level of protection provided by immersion suits in real (harsh) life situations. Two immersion suit studies, one dry and the other with 500 mL of water underneath the suit, were conducted in cold water with 10-12 males in each to test body heat loss under three environmental conditions: calm, as mandated for immersion suit certification, and two combinations of wind plus waves to simulate conditions typically found offshore. In both studies mean skin heat loss was higher in wind and waves vs. calm; deep body temperature and oxygen consumption were not different. Mean survival time predictions exceeded 36 h for all conditions in the first study but were markedly less in the second in both calm and wind and waves. Immersion suit protection and consequential predicted survival times under realistic environmental conditions and with leakage are reduced relative to calm conditions. PMID:25766418

  10. Analysis and Prediction of Cirrus-Top Altitude and Ice Water Path in a Mesoscale Area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norquist, Donald C.; D'Entremont, Robert P.

    2003-08-01

    Vertical distributions of clouds have been a focus of many studies, motivated by their importance in radiative transfer processes in climate models. This study examines the horizontal distribution of cirrus clouds by means of satellite imagery analyses and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. A ground-truth dataset based on two aircraft mission periods flying particle probes through cirrus over a ground-based cloud radar is developed. Particle probe measurements in the cirrus clouds are used to compute ice water content and radar reflectivity averages in short time periods (25-30 s). Relationships for ice water content as a function of reflectivity are developed for 6-K ambient temperature categories. These relationships are applied to the radar-measured short-term-averaged reflectivities to compute vertical profiles of ice water content, which are vertically integrated over the depth of the observed cirrus clouds to form ice water path estimates. These and cloud-top height are compared with the same quantities as retrieved by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) level-2B algorithm applied to four channels of GOES-8 imagery measurements. The agreement in cloud-top height is reasonable (generally less than 2-km difference). The ice water path retrievals are smaller in magnitude than the radar estimates, and this difference grows with increasing cirrus thickness. Comparisons of a sequence of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) predictions and GOES level-2B retrievals of ice cloud tops for the convectively active second mission period showed that the MM5 cirrus areal extent was somewhat greater than the GOES depictions. Cloud-top height ranges were similar. MM5 is capable of producing ice water path magnitudes similar to the radar estimates, but the GOES retrievals are much more limited. Ninety-eight percent of the GOES grid points had ice water paths no greater than 60 g m2, as compared with 74% for MM5. Ten percent of MM5 points had ice water content >200 g m2, as compared with 0.07% for GOES retrievals. Based on this study, we conclude that GOES level-2B cloud-top retrievals are a reliable tool for prediction evaluations but the algorithm's retrievals of ice water path are not.

  11. Predicting Airborne Particle Levels Aboard Washington State School Buses

    PubMed Central

    Adar, Sara D.; Davey, Mark; Sullivan, James R.; Compher, Michael; Szpiro, Adam; Liu, L.-J. Sally

    2008-01-01

    School buses contribute substantially to childhood air pollution exposures yet they are rarely quantified in epidemiology studies. This paper characterizes fine particulate matter (PM2.5) aboard school buses as part of a larger study examining the respiratory health impacts of emission-reducing retrofits. To assess onboard concentrations, continuous PM2.5 data were collected during 85 trips aboard 43 school buses during normal driving routines, and aboard hybrid lead vehicles traveling in front of the monitored buses during 46 trips. Ordinary and partial least square regression models for PM2.5 onboard buses were created with and without control for roadway concentrations, which were also modeled. Predictors examined included ambient PM2.5 levels, ambient weather, and bus and route characteristics. Concentrations aboard school buses (21 μg/m3) were four and two-times higher than ambient and roadway levels, respectively. Differences in PM2.5 levels between the buses and lead vehicles indicated an average of 7 μg/m3 originating from the bus's own emission sources. While roadway concentrations were dominated by ambient PM2.5, bus concentrations were influenced by bus age, diesel oxidative catalysts, and roadway concentrations. Cross validation confirmed the roadway models but the bus models were less robust. These results confirm that children are exposed to air pollution from the bus and other roadway traffic while riding school buses. In-cabin air pollution is higher than roadway concentrations and is likely influenced by bus characteristics. PMID:18985175

  12. Measuring Water Level Fluctuations of two Connected Wetlands in the Dominican Republic Using InSAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pichardo Marcano, M. D.; Liu, L.; Zebker, H. A.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are ecosystems of high endemism and great biodiversity. Using the double-reflected radar waves off the water surface and trunks of inundated vegetation, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is capable of measuring water level fluctuations from space at a cm-level accuracy in these ecosystems with emergent vegetation. InSAR can provide a high spatial resolution over a large area that the more traditional terrestrial-based methods lack. In this study, we applied InSAR to study the seasonal variations in water level of the wetlands near two lakes in the southwest of the Dominican Republic: Lake Enriquillo, a highly saline lake designated as a Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention in 2002, and Laguna del Limon. Both lake-wetland systems are located in the Jaragua-Bahoruco-Enriquillo Biosphere Reserve. Since 2003 the water level of Lake Enriquillo has increased drastically and caused the evacuation of many farmers from nearby villages. Lake level changes also affected the habitats of several native and migratory species. We used the data acquired by the Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) sensor on board of the Japanese Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) from October 2008 to January 2011. For the smaller lake, Laguna del Limon, we found a seasonal variation of 10-15 centimeters. This result was confirmed using two different satellite paths. For Lake Enriquillo we found a net decrease of about 20 centimeters in the water level from September 2009 to January 2011. This result agrees with an independent estimation based on lake hydrodynamics model predictions. In addition, our InSAR-based time series of lake level fluctuations revealed distinct behaviors of the two wetlands. For the Lake Enriquillo we found a continuous decrease in the water level throughout 2010 with a brief increase of the water level during the summer months, while for Laguna del Limon during the summer months the water level decreased and the lake presented a net increase in the water level. The decrease in water level for Lake Enriquillo can be explained by the reduce precipitation rate in 2010 compared to previous years. We demonstrate that InSAR is an effective way to measure water level fluctuations at wetlands in this region. The same method could be applied to other wetlands in the area to fully understand the complex hydrology of the connected wetland systems and the impacts of the hydrological changes on the environment and local human community.

  13. Wii mote as hydrological sensor: observation of water level fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luxemburg, W.; Hut, R.; Weijs, S.; Hegnauer, M.

    2009-12-01

    The input device of the Nintendo Wii, the Wii-mote offers scientist a multitude of cheap, high quality sensors; ideal for proof of concept testing. For a specific application, i.e. the water level fluctuation in a floating evaporation pan the Wii-mote was tested as the observing device. It is shown that the controller can observe movements with high enough temporal and spatial resolution of up to 4 infrared LED’s to describe water level movements. Floating pans positioned in lakes and reservoirs better represent open water evaporation than evaporation pans installed on land. On the other hand performing water level measurements in a floating pan is more complicated due to movement of the pan and wave activities in the pan. The Wii-mote was mounted on the side of a standard class A-pan and a float was placed in the middle of the pan, with 4 LED’s on top moving along a fixed bar. The information that the Wii-mote wirelessly sends by blue tooth was captured on a laptop. With a MATLAB routine this data was converted into movement of the LED’s relatively to the controller. The observations show that wave activities are nicely captured with a typical spatial resolution smaller than 0.1 mm in our set-up and a temporal resolution of maximum 100 Hz. A frequency domain filter was applied to the observed datasets to obtain average water levels. In our laboratory setting the pan was placed in a large basin with a wave generator. A constant, but small, rate of water was added to the evaporation pan. The average pan levels from the filtered datasets showed systematically lower levels compared to the level without any wave activities. This is a typical effect of waves that occur in shallow basins. However, the added water with rates up to 5 mm/hour were clearly recognized in the filtered datasets which indicates that the Wii-mote is very well capable as a sensor for water level observations.

  14. Level of evidence for reasonable assurance guides to prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Schweitzer, D.G.; Sastre, C.

    1987-04-01

    Over the past years, the DOE Contractors have produced a great deal of work that has been extensively reviewed and criticized by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Materials Review Board (MRB) of the DOE, the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), and the technical support group at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). Common aspects of the reviews and criticisms have provided information on the level of evidence required by the scientific community to defend performance claims. Important indicators of the type of evidence that the NRC will require for favorable decisions of reasonable assurance also can be obtained from 10 CFR 60 and its rationale, from NRC guides and Technical Position papers, from past reviews of the DOE programs by NRC Contractors, and from the use of reasonable assurance by the NRC in its 1984 Waste Confidence Decision. This report describes general concepts related to the acceptability and unacceptability of the level of evidence needed to defend claims with reasonable assurance. The concepts were formulated on the basis of analyses of the NRC position papers, and of common aspects of the reviews and criticisms dealing with compliance demonstration.

  15. Interpersonal Stressors Predict Ghrelin and Leptin Levels in Women

    PubMed Central

    Jaremka, Lisa M.; Belury, Martha A.; Andridge, Rebecca R.; Malarkey, William B.; Glaser, Ronald; Christian, Lisa; Emery, Charles F.; Kiecolt-Glaser, Janice K.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Stressful events enhance risk for weight gain and adiposity. Ghrelin and leptin, two hormones that are implicated in appetite regulation, may link stressful events to weight gain; a number of rodent studies suggest that stressors increase ghrelin production. The present study investigated the links among daily stressors, ghrelin and leptin, and dietary intake in humans. Method Women (N = 50) completed three study appointments that were scheduled at least 2 weeks apart. At each visit, women arrived fasting and ate a standardized breakfast and lunch. Blood samples were collected 45 minutes after each meal. Women completed a self-report version of the Daily Inventory of Stressful Events (DISE) at each appointment. Two composites were created from the DISE data, reflecting the number of stressors that did and did not involve interpersonal tension. Results Women who experienced more stressors involving interpersonal tension had higher ghrelin and lower leptin levels than those who experienced fewer interpersonal stressors. Furthermore, women who experienced more interpersonal stressors had a diet that was higher in calories, fat, carbohydrates, protein, sugar, sodium, and fiber, and marginally higher in cholesterol, vegetables (but not fruits), vitamin A, and vitamin C. Stressors that did not involve interpersonal tension were unrelated to ghrelin and leptin levels or any of the dietary components examined. Conclusions These data suggest that ghrelin and leptin may link daily interpersonal stressors to weight gain and obesity. PMID:25032903

  16. Multiple metals predict prolactin and thyrotropin (TSH) levels in men

    SciTech Connect

    Meeker, John D.; Rossano, Mary G.; Protas, Bridget; Diamond, Michael P.; Puscheck, Elizabeth; Daly, Douglas; Paneth, Nigel; Wirth, Julia J.; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI

    2009-10-15

    Exposure to a number of metals can affect neuroendocrine and thyroid signaling, which can result in adverse effects on development, behavior, metabolism, reproduction, and other functions. The present study assessed the relationship between metal concentrations in blood and serum prolactin (PRL) and thyrotropin (TSH) levels, markers of dopaminergic, and thyroid function, respectively, among men participating in a study of environmental influences on male reproductive health. Blood samples from 219 men were analyzed for concentrations of 11 metals and serum levels of PRL and TSH. In multiple linear regression models adjusted for age, BMI and smoking, PRL was inversely associated with arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, manganese, molybdenum, and zinc, but positively associated with chromium. Several of these associations (Cd, Pb, Mo) are consistent with limited studies in humans or animals, and a number of the relationships (Cr, Cu, Pb, Mo) remained when additionally considering multiple metals in the model. Lead and copper were associated with non-monotonic decrease in TSH, while arsenic was associated with a dose-dependent increase in TSH. For arsenic these findings were consistent with recent experimental studies where arsenic inhibited enzymes involved in thyroid hormone synthesis and signaling. More research is needed for a better understanding of the role of metals in neuroendocrine and thyroid function and related health implications.

  17. Water Prediction and Control Technologies for Large-scale Water Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xin; van de Giesen, Nick; van Overloop, Peter-Jules

    2014-05-01

    A number of control techniques have been used in the field of operational water management over recent decades. Among these techniques, the ones that utilize prediction to anticipate near-future problems, such as Model Predictive Control (MPC), have shown the most promising results. Constraints handling and multi-objective management can be explicitly taken into account in MPC. To control large-scale systems, several extensions to standard MPC have been proposed. Firstly, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD-MPC) has been applied to reduce the order the states and computational time. Secondly, a tree-based scheme (TB-MPC) has been proposed to cope with uncertainties of the prediction that are inherently parts of large scale systems. Thirdly, a distributed scheme (DMPC) has been proposed to deal with multiple regions and multiple goals in a computationally tractable way. Simulation experiments on the Dutch water system illustrate that tree-based distributed MPC outperforms feedback control, feedforward control and conventional MPC. Keywords: Model Predictive Control; Proper Orthogonal Decomposition; tree-based control; distributed control; Large Scale Systems;

  18. Significance of steam separator models for BWR water level transients

    SciTech Connect

    Akiyama, T.; Shida, T.; Shibuya, A.

    1988-01-01

    The loss-of-power accident (LOPA) test is required in the series of startup tests for a new plant. In this test, the reactor water level goes down further than in other tests, but it stays a sufficient margin above the lower limit level. However, there is a tendency for simulation results to give an overly conservative water level response compared with test data. Such a situation requires greater standby pump capacity in the feedwater system. After reviewing several possible model improvements, it was noted that the performance of the steam separator has a significant effect on the reactor water level calculation for this event. To develop an improved model, the inverse problem approach (IPA) was applied. The IPA consists of three main procedures: (a) state estimation from the sensed signal, (b) forced simulation to replace the method variable with the estimated state, and (c) introducing hypothetical parameters and tracing them so that the difference between calculated and measured reactor water levels is minimized during the simulation. The simulation results are summarized.

  19. Politics of innovation in multi-level water governance systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, Katherine A.; Coombes, Peter J.; White, Ian

    2014-11-01

    Innovations are being proposed in many countries in order to support change towards more sustainable and water secure futures. However, the extent to which they can be implemented is subject to complex politics and powerful coalitions across multi-level governance systems and scales of interest. Exactly how innovation uptake can be best facilitated or blocked in these complex systems is thus a matter of important practical and research interest in water cycle management. From intervention research studies in Australia, China and Bulgaria, this paper seeks to describe and analyse the behind-the-scenes struggles and coalition-building that occurs between water utility providers, private companies, experts, communities and all levels of government in an effort to support or block specific innovations. The research findings suggest that in order to ensure successful passage of the proposed innovations, champions for it are required from at least two administrative levels, including one with innovation implementation capacity, as part of a larger supportive coalition. Higher governance levels can play an important enabling role in facilitating the passage of certain types of innovations that may be in competition with currently entrenched systems of water management. Due to a range of natural biases, experts on certain innovations and disciplines may form part of supporting or blocking coalitions but their evaluations of worth for water system sustainability and security are likely to be subject to competing claims based on different values and expertise, so may not necessarily be of use in resolving questions of "best courses of action". This remains a political values-based decision to be negotiated through the receiving multi-level water governance system.

  20. Hydrologic effects on water level changes associated with episodic fault creep near Parkfield, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeloffs, E.A.; Burford, S.S.; Riley, F.S.; Records, A.W.

    1989-01-01

    As part of the Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment, water level is monitored in a well 460 m from the main trace of the San Andreas fault on Middle Mountain, in the preparation zone of the anticipated Parkfield earthquake. The well configuration allows water level to be monitored in two fluid reservoirs at depths of 85 and 250 m below land surface. During 1987, water level changes were recorded during 12 of the 18 episodes of accelerated fault creep detected by a creep meter spanning the fault trace 750 m northwest of the well. The creep-related water level changes in the shallow reservoir have durations of less than 1 day, whereas in the deeper reservoir the changes persist for as long as 2 months. These data suggest that the transient nature of the water level changes in the shallow interval is due to vertical flow to the water table and is not evidence that creep events propagate past the well. -from Authors

  1. Changes in copper water-effect ratios in toxicity tests conducted at varying water hardness levels

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, A.S.; Brady, M.D.; Stubblefield, W.A.

    1995-12-31

    Side-by-side acute toxicity tests (Oncorhynchus mykiss and Ceriodaphnia dubia) were conducted in SITE waters collected from a western Montana river and in laboratory waters reconstituted to match the hardness and alkalinity of the SITE water samples. Tests were conducted according to USEPA guidance on the determination and use of Water-Effect Ratios (WER). Multiple WERS, calculated as the ratio of LC50 values from SITE and LAB water tests, were regressed against water hardness and provided significant correlations (r{sup 2}=0.7 to 0.8 (logarithmic)). WERs increased with decreasing water hardness ranging from 1.1 at 282 mg/l hardness to 8.9 at 60 mg/l hardness. Additional tests showed that WER values for single water samples tested at multiple hardness levels (samples augmented with calcium and magnesium salts) again significantly correlated with water hardness. These results are independent of the known ameliorating effect of water hardness on metals toxicity, since WERs compared LC50s for tests conducted at identical water hardness levels. One explanation for this hardness-WER relationship may be that both hardness and certain other toxicity-reducing water quality parameters (e.g., suspended solids, organic carbon) compete in providing protection from the toxic effects of metals in surface waters. As hardness decreases, the importance of these other water quality parameters may increase, thus enhancing the difference between toxicity in soft laboratory reconstituted waters (lacking organic enrichment or suspended solids) and soft site-waters. These results have potentially important implications for the application of national Ambient Water Quality Criteria (Gold Book values) to soft surface waters moderately enriched in organic carbon, suspended solids, or other toxicity-mitigating factors.

  2. Effect of Increased Water Vapor Levels on TBC Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Pint, Bruce A; Garner, George Walter; Lowe, Tracie M; Haynes, James A; Zhang, Ying

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the effect of increased water vapor levels on thermal barrier coating (TBC) lifetime, furnace cycle tests were performed at 1150 C in air with 10 vol.% water vapor (similar to natural gas combustion) and 90 vol.%. Either Pt diffusion or Pt-modified aluminide bond coatings were applied to specimens from the same batch of a commercial second-generation single-crystal superalloy and commercial vapor-deposited yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) top coats were applied. Three coatings of each type were furnace cycled to failure to compare the average lifetimes obtained in dry O{sub 2}, using the same superalloy batch and coating types. Average lifetimes with Pt diffusion coatings were unaffected by the addition of water vapor. In contrast, the average lifetime of Pt-modified aluminide coatings was reduced by more than 50% with 10% water vapor but only slightly reduced by 90% water vapor. Based on roughness measurements from similar specimens without a YSZ coating, the addition of 10% water vapor increased the rate of coating roughening more than 90% water vapor. Qualitatively, the amount of {beta}-phase depletion in the coatings exposed in 10% water vapor did not appear to be accelerated.

  3. Influence of nutrient level on methylmercury content in water spinach.

    PubMed

    Greger, Maria; Dabrowska, Beata

    2010-08-01

    Widely consumed vegetables are often cultivated in sewage waters with high nutrient levels. They can contain high levels of methylmercury (MeHg), because they can form MeHg from inorganic Hg in their young shoots. We determined whether the MeHg uptake and the MeHg formation in the shoots of water spinach (Ipomoea aquatica) were affected by the presence of a high nutrient level in the growth medium. Water spinach shoots were rooted and pretreated in growth medium containing 7% (low) or 70% (high) Hoagland nutrient solution; thereafter, the plants were treated with either 0.02 microM MeHg or 0.2 microM HgCl2 for 3 d. Half the plants were then analyzed for total Hg and MeHg. The remaining plants were transferred to mercury-free medium with low or high nutrient levels and posttreated for 3 days before analysis of total Hg and MeHg in order to measure MeHg formation in the absence of external Hg. The results indicate that nutrient level did not influence MeHg uptake, but that a high nutrient level reduced the distribution of MeHg to the shoots 2.7-fold versus low nutrient level. After treatment with HgCl2, MeHg was found in roots and new shoots but not in old shoots. The MeHg:total-Hg ratio was higher in new shoots than in roots, being 13 times higher at high versus low nutrient levels. Thus, MeHg formation was the same in new shoots independent of inorganic Hg concentration, since the total Hg level decreased at a high nutrient level. PMID:20821626

  4. Predicting Group-Level Outcome Variables from Variables Measured at the Individual Level: A Latent Variable Multilevel Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Croon, Marcel A.; van Veldhoven, Marc J. P. M.

    2007-01-01

    In multilevel modeling, one often distinguishes between macro-micro and micro-macro situations. In a macro-micro multilevel situation, a dependent variable measured at the lower level is predicted or explained by variables measured at that lower or a higher level. In a micro-macro multilevel situation, a dependent variable defined at the higher

  5. Ensemble approach for projections of return periods of extreme water levels in Estonian waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri; Lagemaa, Priidik

    2014-12-01

    The contribution of various drivers to the water level in the eastern Baltic Sea and the presence of outliers in the time series of observed and hindcast water level lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using an ensemble of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. An example of such an ensemble is constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima (annual maxima and stormy season maxima) with a Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The ensemble involves projections based on two data sets (resolution of 6 h and 1 h) hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) and observed data from four representative sites along the Estonian coast. The observed data are transferred into the grid cells of the RCO model using the HIROMB model and a linear regression. For coastal segments where the observations represent the offshore water level well, the overall appearance of the ensembles signals that the errors of single projections are randomly distributed and that the median of the ensemble provides a sensible projection. For locations where the observed water level involves local effects (e.g. wave set-up) the block maxima are split into clearly separated populations. The resulting ensemble consists of two distinct clusters, the difference between which can be interpreted as a measure of the impact of local features on the water level observations.

  6. Predicting water consumption habits for seven arsenic-safe water options in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In Bangladesh, 20 million people are at the risk of developing arsenicosis because of excessive arsenic intake. Despite increased awareness, many of the implemented arsenic-safe water options are not being sufficiently used by the population. This study investigated the role of social-cognitive factors in explaining the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. Methods Eight hundred seventy-two randomly selected households in six arsenic-affected districts of rural Bangladesh, which had access to an arsenic-safe water option, were interviewed using structured face-to-face interviews in November 2009. Habitual use of arsenic-safe water options, severity, vulnerability, affective and instrumental attitudes, injunctive and descriptive norms, self-efficacy, and coping planning were measured. The data were analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Results Linear regression revealed that self-efficacy (B = 0.42, SE = .03, p < .001), the instrumental attitude towards the safe water option (B = 0.24, SE = .04, p < .001), the affective attitude towards contaminated tube wells (B = −0.04, SE = .02, p = .024), vulnerability (B = −0.20, SE = .02, p < .001), as well as injunctive (B = 0.08, SE = 0.04, p = .049) and descriptive norms (B = 0.34, SE = .03, p < .001) primarily explained the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options (R2 = 0.688). This model proved highly generalizable to all seven arsenic-safe water options investigated, even though habitual use of single options were predicted on the basis of parameters estimated without these options. Conclusions This general model for the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options may prove useful to predict other water consumption habits. Behavior-change interventions are derived from the model to promote the habitual use of arsenic-safe water options. PMID:23634950

  7. CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

    1987-01-01

    A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

  8. Improving frost-simulation subroutines of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Erosion models play an important role in assessing the influence of human activities on the environment. For cold areas, adequate frost simulation is crucial for predicting surface runoff and water erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model, physically-based erosion-prediction softwa...

  9. Low-level measurements of tritium in water.

    PubMed

    Villa, M; Manjón, G

    2004-01-01

    Using a liquid scintillation counter, an experimental procedure for measuring low-level activity concentrations of tritium in environmental water has been developed by our laboratory, using the electrolytic tritium enrichment. Additionally, some quality tests were applied in order to assure the goodness of the method. Well-known water samples collected in the Tagus River (West of Spain) and the Danube River (Bulgaria), both affected by nuclear plant releases, were analysed and results were compared to previous data. The analytical procedure was applied to drinking water samples from the public water supply of Seville and mineral waters from different springs in Spain in order to characterize its origin. Due to the very low levels of tritium in the analysed samples, some results were reported as lower than the minimum detectable activity concentration (MDA). However, the count rate of these measurements was over the background count rate of LS counter in all the cases. For that reason, an exhaustive discussion about the meaning of the MDA, using an experimental essay, was made in order to establish a rigorous criterion that leads to a reliable value in the case of low-level measurements. PMID:15177365

  10. Analysis of water level variations in Brazilian basins using GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matos, A.; Blitzkow, D.; Almeida, F.; Costa, S.; Campos, I.; Barbosa, A.

    2012-01-01

    A comparison between daily in-situ water level time series measured at ground-based hydrometric stations (HS - 1,899 stations located in twelve Brazilian basins) of the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) with vertically-integrated water height anomaly deduced from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) geoid is carried out in Brazil. The equivalent water height (EWH) of 10-day intervals of GRACE models were computed by GRGS/CNES. It is a 6-year analysis (July-2002 to May-2008). The coefficient of determination is computed between the ANA water level and GRACE EWH. Values higher than 0.6 were detected in the following basins: Amazon, north of Paraguay, Tocantins-Araguaia, Western North-East Atlantic and north of the Parnaíba. In the Uruguay (Pampas region) and the west of São Francisco basins, the coefficient of determination is around 0.5 and 0.6. These results were adjusted with a linear transfer function and two second degree polynomials (flood and ebb period) between GRACE EWH and ANA water level. The behavior of these two polynomials is related to the phase difference of the two time series and yielded four different types of responses. This paper shows seven ANA stations that represent these responses and relates them with their hydro-geological domain.

  11. Thymidylate synthase mRNA levels in plasma and tumor as potential predictive biomarkers for raltitrexed sensitivity in gastric cancer.

    PubMed

    Shen, Jie; Wang, Hao; Wei, Jia; Yu, Lixia; Xie, Li; Qian, Xiaoping; Zou, Zhengyun; Liu, Baorui; Guan, Wenxian

    2012-09-15

    Different chemotherapeutic agents currently available are effective only in certain subsets of patients. Predictive biomarkers will be helpful in choosing those agents and can improve the clinical efficiency by a more personalized chemotherapeutic approach. Raltitrexed is a novel water-soluble quinazoline folate analogue and can improve the efficiency of gastric cancer treatment, but its predictive biomarker remains unclear. The aim of our study was to investigate the role of plasma and tumor thymidylate synthase (TS) mRNA levels as predictive biomarkers for raltitrexed in gastric cancer. In total, 125 freshly removed gastric tumor specimens and corresponding blood samples before surgery were collected. Raltitrexed sensitivity was determined by histoculture drug response assay procedures. TS mRNA levels in tumor and plasma were determined by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Plasma TS mRNA level in cancer patients was significantly higher than in healthy subjects (p = 0.009) and was significantly correlated with TS mRNA level in tumor tissues (r = 0.665, p < 0.001). Tumor and plasma TS mRNA expression levels were significantly lower in raltitrexed-sensitive group than in resistant group (p = 0.007 and 0.013, respectively). The sensitivity and accuracy of raltitrexed sensitivity prediction based on plasma TS mRNA levels were 82 and 60%, respectively, whereas the prediction based on tumor TS mRNA reached 70% sensitivity and 68% accuracy. These results indicate that TS mRNA level in plasma can mirror tumor TS mRNA level, and both of them can be used to predict raltitrexed sensitivity in gastric cancer. PMID:22422354

  12. Water-level changes (1975-1998) in the Antelope Valley ground-water basin, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carlson, Carl S.; Phillips, Steven P.

    1998-01-01

    Antelope Valley is in the western part of the Mojave Desert in southern California, about 50 mi northeast of Los Angeles. Between 1975 and 1998, water levels in the valley have changed in response to a shift in ground-water use from agricultural to urban, declining in some areas and rising in others. A study to document these changes was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Antelope Valley Water Group. This report presents the water-level data and the changes that occurred during this study period.

  13. On the crystallographic accuracy of structure prediction by implicit water models: Tests for cyclic peptides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldtzvik, Yonathan; Goldstein, Moshe; Benny Gerber, R.

    2013-03-01

    Five small cyclic peptides and four implicit water models, were selected for this study. DEEPSAM, a structure prediction algorithm built upon TINKER, was used. Structures predicted using implicit water models were compared with experimental data, and with predictions calculated in the gas phase. The existence of very accurate X-ray crystallographic data allowed firm and conclusive comparisons between predictions and experiment. The introduction of implicit water models into the calculations improved the RMSD from experiment by about 13% compared with computations neglecting the presence of water. GBSA is shown to be consistently the best implicit water model.

  14. Ground-water levels and water-quality data from monitoring wells in Windham, Maine, water years 1997-2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caldwell, J.M.

    2002-01-01

    Ongoing data collection in an established well network in Windham, Maine, serves as an indicator of the hydrologic and water-quality conditions in the aquifer. This report presents data collected from 1997 through 2001, including ground-water levels, measurements of water-quality field parameters, and concentrations of nutrients and arsenic.

  15. Predictive analyses of ground-water discharges in the Willow Creek Watershed, northeast Nebraska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dugan, Jack T.; Lappala, E.G.

    1978-01-01

    Ground-water discharge to Willow Creek in northeast Nebraska was predicted with a digital model of the ground-water/surface-water system. Recharge and irrigation requirements were determined with a model of the soil zone. The regional aquifer is Pliocene and Pleistocene sands and gravels. Water in the regional aquifer is unconfined in the western part of the watershed and confined in the eastern part. The confining layer is Pleistocene eolian silts with very fine sand interbeds overlying a basal clay. Where the regional aquifer is unconfined, perennial flow of Willow Creek is sustained by ground-water discharge. Where it is confined, the low hydraulic conductivity of the confining beds isolates the regional aquifer from Willow Creek. Adequate agreement between simulated and observed streamflows and water levels during 1975 and 1976 was obtained by modifying initial estimates of hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. The future perennial flow of Willow Creek was simulated by superimposing six patterns of ground-water withdrawals upon variations in recharge for a monthly climatic sequence identical with the period 1931-34. These analyses showed that the perennial monthly flows would be less than 12 cubic feet per second at least 50 percent of the time. (Woodard-USGS)

  16. Early human pregnancy serum cytokine levels predict autoimmunity in offspring.

    PubMed

    Lindehammer, Sabina Resic; Björck, Sara; Lynch, Kristian; Brundin, Charlotte; Marsal, Karel; Agardh, Daniel; Fex, Malin

    2011-09-01

    It is generally believed that pregnancy is mediated by a Th2 response, which includes cytokines that promote placental growth and are involved in inducing tolerance to the foetus. If the balance between Th1/and Th2-mediated cytokines is disrupted, systemic and local changes could predispose the foetus to future disease. Therefore, a shift in the Th1/Th2 balance during pregnancy, possibly caused by underlying environmental factors, could be associated with post-partum autoimmune disease in the offspring. Based on this presumption, we used celiac disease as a model to investigate whether autoimmunity is triggered in the foetus during early pregnancy, observed as changes in the mother's cytokine profile. Ten cytokines were measured by electro-chemi-luminescent multiplex ELISA in serum samples obtained from mothers during early pregnancy. Cases included women with children who had developed verified celiac disease before the age of 5, who were compared with other women as matched controls. We observed that 7 out of 10 cytokine levels were significantly increased in our case mothers when compared to controls. Five of these belonged to what is generally known as a Th1-mediated response (TNFα, IFNγ, IL-2, IL-1β and IL-12) and two were Th2 cytokines (IL-13 and IL-10). However, the IL-10 cytokine is known to have features from both arms of the immune system. These results were confirmed in a logistic regression model where five out of the initial seven cytokines remained. This study suggests that increase in Th1 serum cytokines may be associated with celiac disease in offspring. PMID:21306187

  17. Secular Global Changes in different Tidal High Water, Low Water and Range levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mawdsley, Robert; Haigh, Ivan; Wells, Neil

    2015-04-01

    Tides exert a major control on the coastal zone by influencing high sea levels and coastal flooding, navigation, sediment dynamics and ecology. Therefore, any changes to tides have wide ranging and important implications. In this paper, we uniquely assess secular changes in 15 regularly used tidal levels (five high water, five low water and five tidal ranges), which have direct practical applications. Using sea level data from 220 tide gauge sites, we found changes have occurred in all analysed tidal levels in many parts of the world. For the tidal levels assessed, between 36% and 63% of sites had trends significantly different (at 95% confidence level) from zero. At certain locations, the magnitude of the trends in tidal levels were similar to trends in mean sea level over the last century, with observed changes in tidal range and high water levels of over 5mm/yr and 2mm/yr respectively. More positive than negative trends were observed in tidal ranges and high water levels, and vice versa for low water levels. However we found no significant correlation between trends in mean sea level and any tidal levels. Spatially coherent trends were observed in some regions, including the north-east Pacific, German Bight and Australasia, and we also found that differences in trends occur between different tidal levels. This implies that analysing different tidal levels is important. Because changes in the tide are widespread and of similar magnitude to mean sea level rise at a number sites, changes in tides should be considered in coastal risk assessments.

  18. [Relationship between groundwater level in riparian wetlands and water level in the river].

    PubMed

    Xu, Hua-Shan; Zhao, Tong-Qian; Meng, Hong-Qi; Xu, Zong-Xue; Ma, Chao-Hong

    2011-02-01

    The development and degradation processes of riparian wetlands are significantly affected by river hydrological processes. By observing the variation of groundwater levels in riparian wetlands at the Kouma section of the Yellow River Wetland, especially that during the period of regulation for water and sediment at the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, relationship between groundwater level in riparian wetlands and flood water level in the river is studied. The results show that groundwater level in riparian wetlands is significantly affected by water level in the river investigated. There is a negative exponential relationship between groundwater level and the distance between wells and river. The correlation coefficient shows the maximum (R2 > 0.98) during the period of regulation for water and sediment. Affected by the cultivation system in the flooding area, distance between monitoring wells and river bank, water level in the river variation of groundwater level in the wetland changed greatly. In artificial wetland, which is far from the river, the inter-annual variation in groundwater levels show a " (see symbol)" shape, while in the farmland, which is close to the river, the inter-annual variation of groundwater levels show a big peak. The groundwater level 400 m from the river is affected by flood events obviously, that in the area which is less than 200 m from the river is significantly affected by flood events in the area which is especially less than that in the area that is less than 100 m from the river, the groundwater level is affected by flood events intensively. The result indicated that there was a very close relationship between groundwater and surface water, and it was the hydrological ecotone between groundwater of riparian wetlands and the river. It is very important that rational protection for this region (very important for the area which is less than 100 m from the river, important for the area that is between 100 m and 200 m from the river) is critical for the conservation of water quality in the river and groundwater quality. PMID:21528555

  19. CAN FLUORIDATION AFFECT WATER LEAD LEVELS AND LEAD NEUROTOXICITY?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent reports have attempted to show that certain approaches to fluoridating potable water is linked to increased levels of lead(II) in the blood. We examine these claims in light of the established science and critically evaluate their significance. The completeness of nexafluo...

  20. TRIHALOMETHANE LEVELS IN HOME TAP WATER AND SEMEN QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Trihalomethane Levels in Home Tap Water and Semen Quality
    Laura Fenster, 1 Kirsten Waller, 2 Gayle Windham, 1 Tanya Henneman, 2 Meredith Anderson, 2 Pauline Mendola, 3 James W. Overstreet, 4 Shanna H. Swan5

    1California Department of Health Services, Division of Environm...

  1. Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Morello, Fulvio; Ravetti, Anna; Nazerian, Peiman; Liedl, Giovanni; Veglio, Maria Grazia; Battista, Stefania; Vanni, Simone; Pivetta, Emanuele; Montrucchio, Giuseppe; Mengozzi, Giulio; Rinaldi, Mauro; Moiraghi, Corrado; Lupia, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far. This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality. One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367–557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331–460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37–51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69–76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11–4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable and in nonsurgically treated patients. Plasma LDH constitutes a biomarker of poor outcome in patients with AAS. LDH is a rapid and universally available assay that could be used to improve risk stratification and to individualize treatment in patient groups where options are controversial. PMID:26871831

  2. Empirical prediction of peak pressure levels in anthropogenic impulsive noise. Part I: Airgun arrays signals.

    PubMed

    Galindo-Romero, Marta; Lippert, Tristan; Gavrilov, Alexander

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents an empirical linear equation to predict peak pressure level of anthropogenic impulsive signals based on its correlation with the sound exposure level. The regression coefficients are shown to be weakly dependent on the environmental characteristics but governed by the source type and parameters. The equation can be applied to values of the sound exposure level predicted with a numerical model, which provides a significant improvement in the prediction of the peak pressure level. Part I presents the analysis for airgun arrays signals, and Part II considers the application of the empirical equation to offshore impact piling noise. PMID:26723364

  3. Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) –Development History, Model Capabilities and Future Enhancements

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) was initiated in August 1985 to develop new generation water erosion prediction technology for use by federal agencies involved in soil and water conservation and environmental planning and assessment. Developed by USDA-ARS as a replacement for empirically...

  4. Response in the trophic state of stratified lakes to changes in hydrology and water level: potential effects of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robertson, Dale M.; Rose, William J.

    2011-01-01

    To determine how climate-induced changes in hydrology and water level may affect the trophic state (productivity) of stratified lakes, two relatively pristine dimictic temperate lakes in Wisconsin, USA, were examined. Both are closed-basin lakes that experience changes in water level and degradation in water quality during periods of high water. One, a seepage lake with no inlets or outlets, has a small drainage basin and hydrology dominated by precipitation and groundwater exchange causing small changes in water and phosphorus (P) loading, which resulted in small changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. The other, a terminal lake with inlets but no outlets, has a large drainage basin and hydrology dominated by runoff causing large changes in water and P loading, which resulted in large changes in water level, P concentrations, and productivity. Eutrophication models accurately predicted the effects of changes in hydrology, P loading, and water level on their trophic state. If climate changes, larger changes in hydrology and water levels than previously observed could occur. If this causes increased water and P loading, stratified (dimictic and monomictic) lakes are expected to experience higher water levels and become more eutrophic, especially those with large developed drainage basins.

  5. Global secular changes in different tidal high water, low water and range levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mawdsley, Robert J.; Haigh, Ivan D.; Wells, Neil C.

    2015-02-01

    Tides exert a major control on the coastal zone by influencing high sea levels and coastal flooding, navigation, sediment dynamics, and ecology. Therefore, any changes to tides have wide ranging and important implications. In this paper, we uniquely assess secular changes in 15 regularly used tidal levels (five high water, five low water and five tidal ranges), which have direct practical applications. Using sea level data from 220 tide gauge sites, we found changes have occured in all analyzed tidal levels in many parts of the world. For the tidal levels assessed, between 36% and 63% of sites had trends significantly different (at 95% confidence level) from zero. At certain locations, the magnitude of the trends in tidal levels were similar to trends in mean sea level over the last century, with observed changes in tidal range and high water levels of over 5 mm yr-1 and 2 mm yr-1, respectively. More positive than negative trends were observed in tidal ranges and high water levels, and vice versa for low water levels. However we found no significant correlation between trends in mean sea level (MSL) and any tidal levels. Spatially coherent trends were observed in some regions, including the north-east Pacific, German Bight and Australasia, and we also found that differences in trends occur between different tidal levels. This implies that analyzing different tidal levels is important. Because changes in the tide are widespread and of similar magnitude to MSL rise at a number sites, changes in tides should be considered in coastal risk assessments.

  6. Prediction of projectile ricochet behavior after water impact.

    PubMed

    Baillargeon, Yves; Bergeron, Guy

    2012-11-01

    Although not very common, forensic investigation related to projectile ricochet on water can be required when undesirable collateral damage occurs. Predicting the ricochet behavior of a projectile is challenging owing to numerous parameters involved: impact velocity, incident angle, projectile stability, angular velocity, etc. Ricochet characteristics of different projectiles (K50 BMG, 0.5-cal Ball M2, 0.5-cal AP-T C44, 7.62-mm Ball C21, and 5.56-mm Ball C77) were studied in a pool. The results are presented to assess projectile velocity after ricochet, ricochet angle, and projectile azimuth angle based on impact velocity or incident angle for each projectile type. The azimuth ranges show the highest variability at low postricochet velocity. The critical ricochet angles were ranging from 15 to 30°. The average ricochet angles for all projectiles were pretty close for all projectiles at 2.5 and 10° incident angles for the range of velocities studied. PMID:22536929

  7. Effect of pumpage on ground-water levels as modeled in Laramie County, Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crist, Marvin A.

    1980-01-01

    Groundwater is being extensively developed for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use in a 2,320-square mile area in Laramie County, WY., bounded approximately by Horse Creek on the north, Nebraska on the east, Colorado on the south, and pre-Tertiary outcrops on the west. Currently (1977) about 47,300 acres of land are irrigated with groundwater. Groundwater levels are declining in some areas as much as 4 feet per year. The investigation was made to provide State water administrators with data on water-level changes resulting from present (1977) groundwater withdrawals and to provide a means of predicting the future effect of groundwater development. A digital model was developed of the hydrologic system in the post-Cretaceous rocks. The ability of the model to simulate the hydrologic system was determined by comparing the water-level changes measured at 37 observation wells located in areas of irrigation pumping with the water-level changes calculated by the model for 1971-77. Comparison of the measured and calculated changes showed agreement with a root-mean-square deviation of + or - 3.6 feet with 8 feet as the maximum deviation. It is concluded that the model adequately simulates present hydrologic conditions in the post-Cretaceous rocks and may be used to predict the effect of applied stress to the system. (USGS)

  8. Gray-Markov-model-based prediction and analysis on urban water use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Weigang; Zhang, Yuanbiao; Xie, Jianwen

    2009-07-01

    This paper develops a Gray-Markov model-based approach to predict the municipals water use by combining the grey system theory and Markov random process theory. The proposed approach uses the prediction curve of the grey dynamic forecast model GM(1, 1) as the datum line of the trend of the city water use. Besides, the Markov prediction approach is applied to determine the range of the system chance fluctuation, optimize and modify the grey predictive value. To demonstrate that our system is working correctly, the author used the prediction system to analyze the water data and predict the volume of water use in the city of Zhuhai at a specific time. The approach can not only effectively discover the overall trend of the city water use, but also overcome the influence of the chance fluctuation upon the precision of prediction. Therefore, the approach is effective in real world.

  9. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the

  10. Average County-Level IQ Predicts County-Level Disadvantage and Several County-Level Mortality Risk Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, J. C.; Beaver, Kevin M.; Boutwell, Brian B.

    2013-01-01

    Research utilizing individual-level data has reported a link between intelligence (IQ) scores and health problems, including early mortality risk. A growing body of evidence has found similar associations at higher levels of aggregation such as the state- and national-level. At the same time, individual-level research has suggested the…

  11. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leppi, Jason C.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish.

  12. Predicting Late Winter Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Arctic Lakes Using Morphology and Landscape Metrics.

    PubMed

    Leppi, Jason C; Arp, Christopher D; Whitman, Matthew S

    2016-02-01

    Overwintering habitat for Arctic freshwater fish is essential, such that understanding the distribution of winter habitat quality at the landscape-scale is warranted. Adequate dissolved oxygen (DO) is a major factor limiting habitat quality in the Arctic region where ice cover can persist for 8 months each year. Here we use a mixed-effect model developed from 20 lakes across northern Alaska to assess which morphology and landscape attributes can be used to predict regional overwintering habitat quality. Across all lakes, we found that the majority of the variations in late winter DO can be explained by lake depth and littoral area. In shallow lakes (<4 m), we found evidence that additional variables such as elevation, lake area, ice cover duration, and snow depth were associated with DO regimes. Low DO regimes were most typical of shallow lakes with large littoral areas and lakes that had high DO regimes often were lakes with limited littoral areas and deeper water. Our analysis identifies metrics that relate to late winter DO regimes in Arctic lakes that can aid managers in understanding which lakes will likely provide optimum DO for overwintering habitat. Conversely, lakes which predicted to have marginal winter DO levels may be vulnerable to disturbances that could lower DO below critical thresholds to support sensitive fish. In regions where lakes are also used by humans for industrial winter water supply, such as ice-road construction for oil and gas development, these findings will be vital for the management of resources and protection of Arctic fish. PMID:26467673

  13. Development of predictive models for determining enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zaihong; Deng, Zhiqiang; Rusch, Kelly A

    2012-02-01

    The US EPA BEACH Act requires beach managers to issue swimming advisories when water quality standards are exceeded. While a number of methods/models have been proposed to meet the BEACH Act requirement, no systematic comparisons of different methods against the same data series are available in terms of relative performance of existing methods. This study presents and compares three models for nowcasting and forecasting enterococci levels at Gulf Coast beaches in Louisiana, USA. One was developed using the artificial neural network (ANN) in MATLAB Toolbox and the other two were based on the US EPA Virtual Beach (VB) Program. A total of 944 sets of environmental and bacteriological data were utilized. The data were collected and analyzed weekly during the swimming season (May-October) at six sites of the Holly Beach by Louisiana Beach Monitoring Program in the six year period of May 2005-October 2010. The ANN model includes 15 readily available environmental variables such as salinity, water temperature, wind speed and direction, tide level and type, weather type, and various combinations of antecedent rainfalls. The ANN model was trained, validated, and tested using 308, 103, and 103 data sets (collected in 2007, 2008, and 2009) with an average linear correlation coefficient (LCC) of 0.857 and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.336. The two VB models, including a linear transformation-based model and a nonlinear transformation-based model, were constructed using the same data sets. The linear VB model with 6 input variables achieved an LCC of 0.230 and an RMSE of 1.302 while the nonlinear VB model with 5 input variables produced an LCC of 0.337 and an RMSE of 1.205. In order to assess the predictive performance of the ANN and VB models, hindcasting was conducted using a total of 430 sets of independent environmental and bacteriological data collected at six Holly Beach sites in 2005, 2006, and 2010. The hindcasting results show that the ANN model is capable of predicting enterococci levels at the Holly Beach sites with an adjusted RMSE of 0.803 and LCC of 0.320 while the adjusted RMSE and LCC values are 1.815 and 0.354 for the linear VB model and 1.961 and 0.521 for the nonlinear VB model. The results indicate that the ANN model with 15 parameters performs better than the VB models with 6 or 5 parameters in terms of RMSE while VB models perform better than the ANN model in terms of LCC. The predictive models (especially the ANN and the nonlinear VB models) developed in this study in combination with readily available real-time environmental and weather forecast data can be utilized to nowcast and forecast beach water quality, greatly reducing the potential risk of contaminated beach waters to human health and improving beach management. While the models were developed specifically for the Holly Beach, Louisiana, the methods used in this paper are generally applicable to other coastal beaches. PMID:22130001

  14. Rising water levels and the future of southeastern Louisiana swamp forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conner, W.H.; Brody, M.

    1989-01-01

    An important factor contributing to the deterioration of wetland forests in Louisiana is increasing water levels resulting from eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence. Analyses of long-term water level records from the Barataria and Verret watersheds in southeastern Louisiana indicate an apparent sea level rise of about 1-m per century, mainly the result of subsidence. Permanent study plots were established in cypress-tupelo stands in these two watersheds. The tree, water level, and subsidence data collected in these plots were entered into the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servicea??s FORFLO bottomland hardwood succession model to determine the long-term effects of rising water levels on forest structure. Analyses were made of 50a??100 years for a cypress-tupelo swamp site in each basin and a bottomland hardwood ridge in the Verret watershed. As flooding increased, less flood tolerant species were replaced by cypress-tupelo within 50 years. As flooding continued, the sites start to become nonforested. From the test analyses, the FORFLO model seems to be an excellent tool for predicting long-term changes in the swamp habitat of south Louisiana.

  15. Movements of florida apple snails in relation to water levels and drying events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darby, P.C.; Bennetts, R.E.; Miller, S.J.; Percival, H.F.

    2002-01-01

    Florida apple snails (Pomacea Paludosa) apparently have only a limited tolerance to wetland drying events (although little direct evidence exists), but their populations routinely face dry downs under natural and managed water regimes. In this paper, we address speculation that apple snails respond to decreasing water levels and potential drying events by moving toward refugia that remain inundated. We monitored the movements of apple snails in central Florida, USA during drying events at the Blue Cypress Marsh (BC) and at Lake Kissimmee (LK). We monitored the weekly movements of 47 BC snails and 31 LK snails using radio-telemetry. Snails tended to stop moving when water depths were 10 cm. Snails moved along the greatest positive depth gradient (i.e., towards deeper water) when they encountered water depths between 10 and 20 cm. Snails tended to move toward shallower water in water depths ???50 cm, suggesting that snails were avoiding deep water areas such as canals and sloughs. Of the 11 BC snails originally located in the area that eventually went dry, three (27%) were found in deep water refugia by the end of the study. Only one of the 31 LK snails escaped the drying event by moving to deeper water. Our results indicate that some snails may opportunistically escape drying events through movement. The tendency to move toward deeper water was statistically significant and indicates that this behavioral trait might enhance survival when the spatial extent of a dry down is limited. However, as water level falls below 10 cm, snails stop moving and become stranded. As the spatial extent of a dry down increases, we predict that the number of snails stranded would increase proportionally. Stranded Pomacea paludosa must contend with dry marsh conditions, possibly by aestivation. Little more than anecdotal information has been published on P. paludosa aestivation, but it is a common adaptation among other apple snails (Caenogastropoda: Ampullaridae). ?? 2002, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

  16. Study of the influence of temperature and precipitations on the levels of BTEX in natural waters.

    PubMed

    Moliner-Martínez, Y; Herraez-Hernandez, R; Verdú-Andres, J; Campíns-Falcó, P; Garrido-Palanca, C; Molins-Legua, C; Seco, A

    2013-12-15

    Assessment of seasonal changes in surface water quality is an important aspect for evaluating temporal variation of water due to natural or anthropogenic inputs of point and non-point sources. The objective of this paper was to investigate the influence of seasonal temperature fluctuations and precipitations on the levels of BTEX in natural waters. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to evaluate the seasonal correlations of BTEX levels in water and to extract the parameters that are most important in assessing seasonal variations of water quality. This study was carried out as a part of VOCs monitoring program in natural water samples from Mediterranean coast. To carry out this project, a multiresidue analytical method was used. The method was based on headspace solid-phase microextraction (HS-SPME) followed by gas chromatography coupled to flame ionization detector (FID). The limits of detection LODs found for the tested analyte tested were in the 0.001-1 μg/L range. These values were adequate for the analysis of these compounds in water samples according to the regulated values. Water samples from different points of the Mediterranean coast were analyzed during a period of three years, and were taken four times per year. Most of the compounds were below the limit established by the legislation. The results obtained by a chemometric study indicated that temperature and precipitations can be related on the BTEX levels found in water. A regression model between temperature or precipitations and BTEX concentration was obtained, thus these models can be used as predictive model for detection any non-normal concentration level. PMID:23978603

  17. MATERNAL SELF-REPORTED DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS AND MATERNAL CORTISOL LEVELS INTERACT TO PREDICT INFANT CORTISOL LEVELS.

    PubMed

    Khoury, Jennifer E; Gonzalez, Andrea; Levitan, Robert; Masellis, Mario; Basile, Vincenzo; Atkinson, Leslie

    2016-03-01

    Three basic findings have emerged from research on maternal depressive symptoms and offspring hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal functioning: (a) Mothers' depressive symptoms are positively associated with their offsprings' cortisol stress response, (b) numerous individual and interpersonal maternal characteristics moderate this association, and (c) maternal and infant cortisol levels are highly correlated. In combination, these findings have suggested that maternal cortisol levels may moderate the relation between maternal depressive symptoms and infant cortisol responsivity; the current study assessed this hypothesis. Participants were 297 mother-infant dyads who were recruited from the community. Maternal depressive symptoms were assessed via self-report. Dyads participated in two differentially stressful infant challenges when infants were 16 and 17 months old. Mother and infant salivary cortisol was collected before and after challenges. Results indicate that maternal cortisol levels moderated associations between maternal depressive symptoms and infant cortisol levels across both challenges. Infants showed higher cortisol levels if their mothers had both higher depressive symptoms and higher cortisol levels, as compared to infants of mothers with higher depressive symptoms and lower cortisol, and to infants of mothers with lower depressive symptoms and either higher or lower cortisol levels. We discuss findings in relation to environmental and biological factors that may contribute to the intergenerational transmission of depressive symptoms. PMID:26939829

  18. Predicting Homework Time Management at the Secondary School Level: A Multilevel Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to test empirical models of variables posited to predict homework time management at the secondary school level. Student- and class-level predictors of homework time management were analyzed in a survey of 1895 students from 111 classes. Most of the variance in homework time management occurred at the student level,

  19. Predicting Homework Time Management at the Secondary School Level: A Multilevel Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to test empirical models of variables posited to predict homework time management at the secondary school level. Student- and class-level predictors of homework time management were analyzed in a survey of 1895 students from 111 classes. Most of the variance in homework time management occurred at the student level,…

  20. Methods of measuring water levels in deep wells

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garber, M.S.; Koopman, F.C.

    1968-01-01

    Accurate measurement of water levels deeper than 1,000 feet in wells requires specialized equipment. Corrections for stretch and thermal expansion of measuring tapes must be considered, and other measuring devices must be calibrated periodically. Bore-hole deviation corrections also must be made. Devices for recording fluctuation of fluid level usually require mechanical modification for use at these depths. A multichannel recording device utilizing pressure transducers has been constructed. This device was originally designed to record aquifer response to nearby underground nuclear explosions but can also be used for recording data from multi-well pumping tests. Bottom-hole recording devices designed for oil-field use have been utilized in a limited manner. These devices were generally found to lack the precision required, in ground-water investigations at the Nevada Test Site but may be applicable in other areas. A newly developed bottom-hole recording pressure gauge of improved accuracy has been used with satisfactory results.

  1. Response of Changes in Water Levels and Water Radon on the Observed Seismicity Along Longmenshan Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, A.; Ye, Q.; Singh, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    In China, numerous subsurface, water well and spring parameters are being monitored through a large network of stations distributed in China sponsored by China Earthquake Administration (CEA). All the data from these network is managed by China Earthquake Network Center (CENC). In this paper, we have used numerous data available through CENC for the period 2002-2014 to study the behavior and characteristics of water radon. The observed parameters were also complimented by the water level, and rainfall. Our detailed analysis shows increase in the level prior to the earthquake. The radon content, groundwater level and rainfall show a positive correlation prior to the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes. The water radon concentrations change from one location to other which may be associated with the changes in ground water regime due to changes in stress regime and observed seismicity. We have also used satellite data to retrieve CO concentrations from many locations along Longmenshan Fault. At some location, changes in CO, water level and water radon show complimentary characteristics.

  2. Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

    2014-01-01

    Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

  3. Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

  4. Prediction of the Caspian Sea level using ECMWF seasonal forecasts and reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arpe, K.; Leroy, S. A. G.; Wetterhall, F.; Khan, V.; Hagemann, S.; Lahijani, H.

    2014-07-01

    The hydrological budget of the Caspian Sea (CS) is investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAi) and seasonal forecast (FCST) data with the aim of predicting the Caspian Sea Level (CSL) some months ahead. Precipitation and evaporation are used. After precipitation events over the Volga River, the discharge (Volga River discharge (VRD)) follows with delays, which are parameterized. The components of the water budget from ERAi and FCSTs are integrated to obtain time series of the CSL. Observations of the CSL and the VRD are used for comparison and tuning. The quality of ERAi data is sufficiently good to calculate the time variability of the CSL with a satisfactory accuracy. Already the storage of water within the Volga Basin allows forecasts of the CSL a few months ahead, and using the FCSTs of precipitation improves the CSL forecasts. The evaporation in the seasonal forecasts is deficient due to unrealistic sea surface temperatures over the CS. Impacts of different water budget terms on the CSL variability are shown by a variety of validation tools. The importance of precipitation anomalies over the catchment of the Volga River is confirmed, but also impacts from the two southern rivers (Sefidrud and Kura River) and the evaporation over the CS become obvious for some periods. When pushing the FCSTs beyond the limits of the seasonal FCSTs to 1 year, considerable forecast skill can still be found. Validating only FCSTs by the present approach, which show the same trend as one based on a statistical method, significantly enhances the skill scores.

  5. Epidemiology can help predict urban water system failures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palus, Shannon

    2014-11-01

    A broken water pipe can mean flooded streets, damaged property, disrupted traffic, and income loss for local businesses. In the summer of 2009, the water system of Los Angeles experienced an unprecedented 75 of these water main blowouts. Notably, two transmission mains burst just days apart.

  6. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scibek, J.; Allen, D. M.

    2006-11-01

    A methodology is developed for linking climate models and groundwater models to investigate future impacts of climate change on groundwater resources. An unconfined aquifer, situated near Grand Forks in south central British Columbia, Canada, is used to test the methodology. Climate change scenarios from the Canadian Global Coupled Model 1 (CGCM1) model runs are downscaled to local conditions using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), and the change factors are extracted and applied in LARS-WG stochastic weather generator and then input to the recharge model. The recharge model simulated the direct recharge to the aquifer from infiltration of precipitation and consisted of spatially distributed recharge zones, represented in the Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) hydrologic model linked to a geographic information system (GIS). A three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model, implemented in MODFLOW, is then used to simulate four climate scenarios in 1-year runs (1961-1999 present, 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099) and compare groundwater levels to present. The effect of spatial distribution of recharge on groundwater levels, compared to that of a single uniform recharge zone, is much larger than that of temporal variation in recharge, compared to a mean annual recharge representation. The predicted future climate for the Grand Forks area from the downscaled CGCM1 model will result in more recharge to the unconfined aquifer from spring to the summer season. However, the overall effect of recharge on the water balance is small because of dominant river-aquifer interactions and river water recharge.

  7. Remotely mapping river water quality using multivariate regression with prediction validation.

    SciTech Connect

    Stork, Christopher Lyle; Autry, Bradley C.

    2005-07-01

    Remote spectral sensing offers an attractive means of mapping river water quality over wide spatial regions. While previous research has focused on development of spectral indices and models to predict river water quality based on remote images, little attention has been paid to subsequent validation of these predictions. To address this oversight, we describe a retrospective analysis of remote, multispectral Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) images of the Ohio River and its Licking River and Little Miami River tributaries. In conjunction with the CASI acquisitions, ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity were made for a small set of locations in the Ohio River. Partial least squares regression models relating the remote river images to ground truth measurements of chlorophyll-a concentration and turbidity for the Ohio River were developed. Employing these multivariate models, chlorophyll-a concentrations and turbidity levels were predicted in river pixels lacking ground truth measurements, generating detailed estimated water quality maps. An important but often neglected step in the regression process is to validate prediction results using a spectral residual statistic. For both the chlorophyll-a and turbidity regression models, a spectral residual value was calculated for each river pixel and compared to the associated statistical confidence limit for the model. These spectral residual statistic results revealed that while the chlorophyll-a and turbidity models could validly be applied to a vast majority of Ohio River and Licking River pixels, application of these models to Little Miami River pixels was inappropriate due to an unmodeled source of spectral variation.

  8. Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring…

  9. Predictive Validity of Curriculum-Based Measures for English Learners at Varying English Proficiency Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Jennifer Sun; Vanderwood, Michael L.; Lee, Catherine Y.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of curriculum-based measures in reading for Spanish-speaking English learners (ELs) at various levels of English proficiency. Third-grade Spanish-speaking EL students were screened during the fall using DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency (DORF) and Daze. Predictive validity was examined in relation to spring

  10. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Effects of artificial-recharge experiments at Ship Creek alluvial fan on water levels at Spring Acres Subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyer, William; Patrick, Leslie

    1980-01-01

    The effect of the artificial recharge experiments on water levels at Spring Acres subdivision, Anchorage, Alaska, was evaluated using two digital models constructed to simulate groundwater movement and water-level rises induced by the artificial recharge. The models predicted that the artificial recharge would have caused water levels in the aquifer immediately underlying Spring Acres subdivision to rise 0.2 foot from May 20 to August 7, 1975. The models also predicted a total rise in groundwater levels of 1.1 feet at this location from July 16, 1973 to August 7, 1975, as a result of the artificial-recharge experiments. Water-level data collected from auger holes in March 1975 by a consulting firm for the contractor indicated a depth to water of 6-7 feet below land surface at Spring Acres subdivision at this time. Water levels measured in and near Spring Acres subdivision several years before and after the 1973-75 artificial-recharge experiments showed seasonal rises of 2 to 12.4 feet. A depth to water below land surface of 2.6 feet was measured 600 feet from the subdivision in 1971 and in the subdivision in 1977. Average measured depth to water in the area was 7.0 feet from early 1976 to September 1979. (USGS)

  12. TH-A-9A-01: Active Optical Flow Model: Predicting Voxel-Level Dose Prediction in Spine SBRT

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, J; Wu, Q.J.; Yin, F; Kirkpatrick, J; Cabrera, A; Ge, Y

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To predict voxel-level dose distribution and enable effective evaluation of cord dose sparing in spine SBRT. Methods: We present an active optical flow model (AOFM) to statistically describe cord dose variations and train a predictive model to represent correlations between AOFM and PTV contours. Thirty clinically accepted spine SBRT plans are evenly divided into training and testing datasets. The development of predictive model consists of 1) collecting a sequence of dose maps including PTV and OAR (spinal cord) as well as a set of associated PTV contours adjacent to OAR from the training dataset, 2) classifying data into five groups based on PTV's locations relative to OAR, two “Top”s, “Left”, “Right”, and “Bottom”, 3) randomly selecting a dose map as the reference in each group and applying rigid registration and optical flow deformation to match all other maps to the reference, 4) building AOFM by importing optical flow vectors and dose values into the principal component analysis (PCA), 5) applying another PCA to features of PTV and OAR contours to generate an active shape model (ASM), and 6) computing a linear regression model of correlations between AOFM and ASM.When predicting dose distribution of a new case in the testing dataset, the PTV is first assigned to a group based on its contour characteristics. Contour features are then transformed into ASM's principal coordinates of the selected group. Finally, voxel-level dose distribution is determined by mapping from the ASM space to the AOFM space using the predictive model. Results: The DVHs predicted by the AOFM-based model and those in clinical plans are comparable in training and testing datasets. At 2% volume the dose difference between predicted and clinical plans is 4.2±4.4% and 3.3±3.5% in the training and testing datasets, respectively. Conclusion: The AOFM is effective in predicting voxel-level dose distribution for spine SBRT. Partially supported by NIH/NCI under grant #R21CA161389 and a master research grant by Varian Medical System.

  13. Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuels, Rana

    Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall data from local stations are developed. These are used to develop scenarios for local rainfall statistics such as average annual amounts, dry spells, wet spells and drought persistence. This suite of models can provide information that is not attainable from existing tools in terms of its spatial and temporal resolution. Specifically, the goal is to project the impact of established global climate change scenarios in this region and, how much of the change might be mitigated by proposed CO2 reduction strategies. A major problem in this enterprise is to find the best way to integrate global climatic information with local rainfall data. From the climatologic perspective the problem is to find the right teleconnections. That is, non local or global measurable phenomena that influence local rainfall in a way that could be characterized and quantified statistically. From the computational perspective the challenge is to model these subtle, nonlinear relationships and to downscale the global effects into local predictions. Climate simulations to the year 2100 under selected climate change scenarios are used. Overall, the suite of models developed and presented can be applied to answer most questions from the different water users and planners. Farmers and the irrigation community can ask "What is the probability of rain over the next week?" Policy makers can ask "How much desalination capacity will I need to meet demand 90% of the time in the climate change scenario over the next 20 years?" Aquifer managers can ask "What is the expected recharge rate of the aquifers over the next decade?" The use of climate driven answers to these questions will help the region better prepare and adapt to future shifts in water resources and availability.

  14. Added value from 576 years of tree-ring records in the prediction of the Great Salt Lake level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillies, Robert R.; Chung, Oi-Yu; Simon Wang, S.-Y.; DeRose, R. Justin; Sun, Yan

    2015-10-01

    Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah - the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere - is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover less than a century, forecasting the predominant yet under-represented decadal variability of the GSL level with such relatively short instrumental records poses a challenge. To overcome data limitations, this study assesses two options: (1) developing a model using the observational GSL elevation record of 137 years to predict itself; (2) incorporating the recently reconstructed GSL elevation that utilized 576 years worth of tree-ring records into the predictive model. It was found that the statistical models that combined the tree-ring reconstructed data with the observed data outperformed those that did not, in terms of reducing the root mean squared errors. Such predictive models can serve as a means toward practical water risk management.

  15. Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

    1984-01-01

    The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

  16. Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

    1984-05-01

    The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

  17. Simulated effects of pumping irrigation wells on ground-water levels in western Saginaw County, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoard, Christopher J.; Westjohn, David B.

    2001-01-01

    Success of agriculture in many areas of Michigan relies on withdrawal of large quantities of ground water for irrigation. In some areas of the State, water-level declines associated with large ground-water withdrawals may adversely affect nearby residential wells. Residential wells in several areas of Saginaw County, in Michigan?s east-central Lower Peninsula, recently went dry shortly after irrigation of crop lands commenced; many of these wells also went dry during last year?s agricultural cycle (summer 2000). In September 2000, residential wells that had been dry returned to function after cessation of pumping from large-capacity irrigation wells. To evaluate possible effects of ground-water withdrawals from irrigation wells on residential wells, the U.S. Geological Survey used hydrogeologic data including aquifer tests, water-level records, geologic logs, and numerical models to determine whether water-level declines and the withdrawal of ground water for agricultural irrigation are related. Numerical simulations based on representative irrigation well pumping volumes and a 3-month irrigation period indicate water-level declines that range from 5.3 to 20 feet, 2.8 to 12 feet and 1.7 to 6.9 feet at distances of about 0.5, 1.5 and 3 miles from irrigation wells, respectively. Residential wells that are equipped with shallow jet pumps and that are within 0.5 miles of irrigation wells would likely experience reduced yield or loss of yield during peak periods of irrigation. The actual extent that irrigation pumping cause reduced function of residential wells, however, cannot be fully predicted on the basis of the data analyzed because many other factors may be adversely affecting the yield of residential wells.

  18. Demonstration of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) internet interface and services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based FORTRAN computer simulation program for prediction of runoff and soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. To effectively run the WEPP model and interpret results additional software has been de...

  19. Prediction of free-field noise levels from pole microphone measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoerki, C. A.; Larson, R. S.

    1980-06-01

    A theoretical model was developed to predict free-field noise levels from static jet-engine acoustic data obtained with pole-mounted microphones. The free-field correction developed in this model includes the effects of scattering of sound by turbulence in the atmosphere, finite ground impedance, jet noise source location, and microphone directionality. Normal incidence ground impedance values for several surfaces were defined in an experimental study. A detailed comparison of predictions from this theory, using the experimentally measured impedance, and full scale jet engine data demonstrated the necessity of including these effects to accurately predict free-field noise levels from pole-microphone data.

  20. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y.; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P.; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods. PMID:26936420

  1. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-01-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods. PMID:26936420

  2. Directly Predicting Water Quality Criteria from Physicochemical Properties of Transition Metals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ying; Wu, Fengchang; Mu, Yunsong; Zeng, Eddy Y.; Meng, Wei; Zhao, Xiaoli; Giesy, John P.; Feng, Chenglian; Wang, Peifang; Liao, Haiqing; Chen, Cheng

    2016-03-01

    Transition metals are a group of elements widespread in aquatic environments that can be hazardous when concentrations exceeding threshold values. Due to insufficient data, criteria maximum concentrations (CMCs) of only seven transition metals for protecting aquatic life have been recommended by the USEPA. Hence, it is deemed necessary to develop empirical models for predicting the threshold values of water quality criteria (WQC) for other transition metals for which insufficient information on toxic potency is available. The present study established quantitative relationships between recommended CMCs and physicochemical parameters of seven transition metals, then used the developed relationships to predict CMCs for other transition metals. Seven of 26 physicochemical parameters examined were significantly correlated with the recommended CMCs. Based on this, five of the seven parameters were selected to construct a linear free energy model for predicting CMCs. The most relevant parameters were identified through principle component analysis, and the one with the best correlation with the recommended CMCs was a combination of covalent radius, ionic radius and electron density. Predicted values were largely consistent with their toxic potency values. The present study provides an alternative approach to develop screening threshold level for metals which have insufficient information to use traditional methods.

  3. A Study on Predicting Shinkansen Noise Levels Using the Sound Intensity Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Tadashi

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a new method developed to predict track wayside noise levels resulting from the passage of high-speed trains. The method calculates noise levels based on data acquired by the sound intensity method developed by the Central Japan Railway Company. This measurement method allows one to identify each sound source and its characteristics as well as identify how much each source contributes to the overall resulting noise level. Structure borne noise and multiple reflected noise between train car bodies and noise barriers are also studied. As a result of this study, a prediction method was created which can calculate and predict noise levels resulting from such various factors as structure, train type, train speed and noise barrier. Noise levels predicted during this study agreed well with those actually measured under various conditions, thus indicating the prediction method model resulting from the study is a useful tool to verify noise levels occurring at receiver positions. Furthermore, it can also verify in advance how much effect noise barriers or train source noise level reduction devices would have on noise reduction.

  4. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 4, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.; Reed, J.E.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 4 at realined mile 154 (kilometer 250) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 115 feet (35 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage ranging from 24 to 4.5 feet (7 to 1.4 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more between the Red River and Bayou Pierre from the dam to Coushatta , and below Campti, east of the river. The potentiometric surface may be at or near land surface in low areas between the Red River and Bayou Pierre, and above land surface locally upstream from the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced to less than half the present range.

  5. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 2, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 1 at mile 44 (kilometer 71) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 40 feet (12.2 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage of 9 feet (2.7 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more within 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) of the river. The potentiometric surface may be near land surface in low-lying areas, and above land surface along the course of drainage features near the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced. (Woodard-USGS)

  6. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 3, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.; Terry, J.E.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study, using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 3 at realined mile 111 (kilometer 179) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 87 feet (27 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage ranging from 21 to 3.5 feet (l.4 to 1.1 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised to near land surface in low areas east of the river from the damsite to Aloha and in a 0.5-mile (0.8-kilometer) strip along the west side extending 9 miles (14 kilometers) above the dam. The potentiometric surface may be above land surface locally near the dam. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced to less than half the preconstruction range.

  7. Preconstruction and postconstruction ground-water levels, Lock and Dam 2, Red River Valley, Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, A.H.

    1979-01-01

    Proposed construction of a series of locks and dams in the Red River in Louisiana will cause a permanent increase in average river stage. The potentiometric surface of the shallow alluvial aquifer and the water table in the fine-grained material confining the aquifer will be affected. The purpose of this study using digital-modeling techniques, was to predict the average postconstruction potentiometric surface (steady state) and the water table (nonsteady state) so that potential effects of the water-level changes could be evaluated. Plans for lock and dam 2 at mile 87 (kilometer 140) above the mouth of the Red River call for a pool elevation of 58 feet (17.7 meters) and will cause an average increase in river stage of 12.5 feet (3.8 meters). As a result, ground-water levels will be raised 1 foot (0.3 meter) or more within 4 miles (6.4 kilometers) of the river and will be near land surface in low areas. The potentiometric surface may be as much as 1 to 2 feet (0.3 to 0.6 meter) above land surface south of Latanier along Chatlin Lake Canal and south of the Annandale area of Alexandria. The magnitude of ground-water-level fluctuations near the river will be reduced.

  8. A predictive coding framework for rapid neural dynamics during sentence-level language comprehension.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Ashley G; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2015-07-01

    There is a growing literature investigating the relationship between oscillatory neural dynamics measured using electroencephalography (EEG) and/or magnetoencephalography (MEG), and sentence-level language comprehension. Recent proposals have suggested a strong link between predictive coding accounts of the hierarchical flow of information in the brain, and oscillatory neural dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges. We propose that findings relating beta and gamma oscillations to sentence-level language comprehension might be unified under such a predictive coding account. Our suggestion is that oscillatory activity in the beta frequency range may reflect both the active maintenance of the current network configuration responsible for representing the sentence-level meaning under construction, and the top-down propagation of predictions to hierarchically lower processing levels based on that representation. In addition, we suggest that oscillatory activity in the low and middle gamma range reflect the matching of top-down predictions with bottom-up linguistic input, while evoked high gamma might reflect the propagation of bottom-up prediction errors to higher levels of the processing hierarchy. We also discuss some of the implications of this predictive coding framework, and we outline ideas for how these might be tested experimentally. PMID:25840879

  9. Variation of Great Lakes Water Levels Derived from Geosat Altimetry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Charles S.; Gill, Stephen K.

    1994-01-01

    A technique for using satellite radar altimetry data to estimate the temporal variation of the water level in moderate to large lakes and enclosed seas is described. Great Lakes data from the first 2 years of the U.S. Navy's Geosat Exact Repeat Mission (November 1986 to November 1988), for which there is an improved orbit, are used to demonstrate the technique. The Geosat results are compared to the lake level data collected by the Great Lakes Section, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and are found to reproduce the temporal variations of the five major lakes with Root-Mean-Square error (RMS) ranging from 9.4 to 13.8 cm and a combined average of 11.1 cm. Geosat data are also analyzed for Lake St. Clair, representing a moderate-sized lake, with a resulting rms of 17.0 cm. During this study period, the water level in the Great Lakes varied in a typical annual cycle of about 0.2 m (0.5 in for Lake Ontario) superimposed on a general decline of approximately 0.5 m. The altimeter data reproduced the general decline reasonably well for all the lakes, but the annual cycle was obscured in some lakes due to systematic errors in the altimeter data. Current and future altimetry missions will have markedly improved accuracy which will permit many moderate (25 km diameter) or larger lakes or enclosed seas to be routinely monitored.

  10. Screening Experiments for Removal of Low-Level Tritiated Water

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Yun Mi; Baney, Ronald; Powers, Kevin; Koopman, Ben; Tulenko, James

    2005-03-15

    Screening experiments for low levels of tritiated water (HTO) remediation based upon selective adsorption/desorption mechanisms utilizing equilibrium isotope effects have been carried out. Several organic and inorganic high surface area materials were investigated to assess their ability to selectively adsorb low concentrations of HTO. Ion-exchange resins with cation functionalities, chitosan, sodium alginate, and several inorganic media modified with metal cations exhibited promising results. Biomaterials, for example, chitosan and modified alginate, demonstrated positive results. Based on the literature and our preliminary testing, we postulate four possible mechanisms for selected tritium adsorption: hydrogen ion exchange, HTO coordination with surface cation sites, hydrogen bonding to surface basic sites, and secondary hydrogen bonding (structural water) in fine pores.

  11. Removal of trace-level mercury from surface water

    SciTech Connect

    Klasson, K.T.; Bostick, D.T.; Taylor, P.A.; Farr, L.L.

    1999-07-01

    The removal of mercury from slipstreams of water from a creek and from a wastewater treatment plant has been studied in the field. Two types of column studies were performed with different mercury sorbents. A short-term study that yielded information about the kinetic behavior of different sorbents in a column configuration and a long-term study that is under they way were used to obtain information about long-term performance and treatment capacity. The results indicate that sorbents containing thiol functional groups gave the best performance in both the short- and long-term studies. The results also indicate that water pretreatment may be an effective option to ensure that the mercury is free and oxidized. This approach may be a necessity when target levels of ng/L are desired.

  12. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  13. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  14. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  15. 7 CFR 610.12 - Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... erosion. 610.12 Section 610.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... ASSISTANCE Soil Erosion Prediction Equations § 610.12 Equations for predicting soil loss due to water erosion. (a) The equation for predicting soil loss due to erosion for both the USLE and the RUSLE is A = R ×...

  16. Wheat: Its water use, production and disease detection and prediction. [Kansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kanemasu, E. T. (Principal Investigator); Lenhert, D.; Niblett, C.; Manges, H.; Eversmeyer, M. G.

    1974-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Discussed in this report are: (1) the effects of wheat disease on water use and yield; and (2) the use of ERTS-1 imagery in the evaluation of wheat growth and in the detection of disease severity. Leaf area index was linearly correlated with ratios MSS4:MSS5 and MSS5:MSS6. In an area of severe wheat streak mosaic virus infected fields, correlations of ERTS-1 digital counts with wheat yields and disease severity levels were significant at the 5% level for MSS bands 4 and 5 and band ratios 4/6 and 4/7. Data collection platforms were used to gather meteorological data for the early prediction of rust severity and economic loss.

  17. The application of a Grey Markov Model to forecasting annual maximum water levels at hydrological stations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Sheng; Chi, Kun; Zhang, Qiyi; Zhang, Xiangdong

    2012-03-01

    Compared with traditional real-time forecasting, this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model (GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area. The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model. The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values, and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information. The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps: 1) establish the GM (1, 1) model based on the data series; 2) estimate the trend values; 3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series; 4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2, and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation; 5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy. The historical water level records (from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin, China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps. Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence. Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data. The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary. The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable. The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.

  18. Processing of water level derived from water pressure data at the Time Series Station Spiekeroog

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holinde, L.; Badewien, T. H.; Freund, J. A.; Stanev, E. V.; Zielinski, O.

    2015-10-01

    The quality of water level time series data strongly varies with periods of high- and low-quality sensor data. In this paper we are presenting the processing steps which were used to generate high-quality water level data from water pressure measured at the Time Series Station (TSS) Spiekeroog. The TSS is positioned in a tidal inlet between the islands of Spiekeroog and Langeoog in the East Frisian Wadden Sea (southern North Sea). The processing steps will cover sensor drift, outlier identification, interpolation of data gaps and quality control. A central step is the removal of outliers. For this process an absolute threshold of 0.25 m 10 min-1 was selected which still keeps the water level increase and decrease during extreme events as shown during the quality control process. A second important feature of data processing is the interpolation of gappy data which is accomplished with a high certainty of generating trustworthy data. Applying these methods a 10-year data set (December 2002-December 2012) of water level information at the TSS was processed resulting in a 7-year time series (2005-2011). Supplementary data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.843740.

  19. The Organochlorine Pesticides Residue Levels in Karun River Water

    PubMed Central

    Behfar, Abdolazim; Nazari, Zahra; Rabiee, Mohammad Hassan; Raeesi, Gholamreza; Oveisi, Mohammad Reza; Sadeghi, Nafiseh; Jannat, Behrooz

    2013-01-01

    Background The organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are among the most commonly used in water streams around the world. Most of these contaminants are highly hydrophobic and persist in sediments of rivers and lakes. Studies have suggested that OCPs may affect the normal function of the human and wildlife endocrine systems. Objectives The aim of this study is to determine the concentrations of selected organochlorine pesticides residues [OP'DDT, PP'DDT, alderin, dieldrin, heptachlor, (α,ß,γ,δ) HCH, (α, ß) endosulfan and metoxychlor] in samples from Karun River water at Khuzestan province in Iran , by GC-µ-ECD. Materials and Methods Water was extracted with n-hexane and then purified by passing through a glass column packed with Florisil and Na2SO4, which was then eluted with ether: hexane solution v/v. Results In general, all of 12 investigated organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were detected. Regardless of the kind of OCPs, the highest OCP pollution level in Karun River were seen from August to November 2009 ranging 71.43 – 89.34 µg/L, and the lowest were seen from Dec 2010 to March 2011 at levels of 22.25 - 22.64 µg/L. The highest and lowest mean concentrations of 12 investigated pesticides were ß-Endosulfan and pp' DDT with 28.51and 0.01 µg/L respectively. Conclusions Comparison of total organochlorine pesticides residues concentration with WHO guidelines revealed that the Karun River had total OCPs residues above the probable effect level (0.2-20 µg/L, P < 0.05), which could pose a risk to aquatic life. PMID:24624185

  20. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, effects of pumping on water levels and water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1982-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels declined more than 100 feet in the coastal area of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin in southern California. The water-level declines are the result of increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines in the main water-bearing zones to altitudes below sea level. Consequently, the ground-water basin is threatened with salt-water intrusion if the present pumpage is maintained or increased. Water-quality data suggest that salt-water intrusion has already degraded the water yielded from six coastal wells. Chloride concentrations in the six wells ranged from about 400 to 4,000 milligrams per liter. Municipal supply wells near the coast currently yield water of suitable quality for domestic use. There is, however, no known physical barrier to the continued inland advance salt water. Management alternatives to control salt-water intrusion in the Santa Barbara area include (1) decreasing municipal pumping, (2) increasing the quantity of water available for recharge by releasing surplus water to Mission Creek, (3) artificially recharing the basin using injection wells, and (4) locating municipal supply wells farther from the coast and farther apart to minimize drawdown. (USGS)

  1. Concurrent and Predictive Relations between Hormone Levels and Social-Emotional Functioning in Early Adolescence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nottelmann, Editha D.; And Others

    Hormone levels and changes in hormone levels were evaluated three times across a 1-year period as concurrent and predictive correlates of the socio-emotional functioning of 56 boys 10- to 14-years-old and 52 girls 9- to 14-years-old who represented the five stages of Tanner's criteria of pubertal development. The hormone measures were serum levels…

  2. Analysis of water-level fluctuations in Wisconsin wells

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Patterson, G.L.; Zaporozec, A.

    1987-01-01

    Long-term trends are apparent on hydrographs of wells Br-46, Mr-2S, Pt-276, Ro-3, and Ve-8. The trend of average annual water levels has been generally increasing since the late 1950's and is in general agreement with the increasing trend of precipitation. Hydrographs of well Ve-8, which has the longest period of record in Wisconsin, indicate that the generally rising trend started even earlier at the end of an extensive drought period in the 1930's.

  3. Projected climate change effects on water level of an oxbow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunyady, Adrienn

    One of the most vulnerable regions in the Carpathian Basin is the Great Hungarian Plain, where small and shallow oxbows are endangered along river Tisza. The purpose of this paper is to determine how the global warming affects a typical oxbow, located on the floodplain of river Tisza, in Hungary. A coupled meteorological-hydraulic model is developed and applied for this oxbow. Results suggest that the monthly minimum water levels are expected to decrease, moreover, extreme drought events sometimes result temporary drying-up of the oxbow.

  4. Application of data assimilation for improving forecast of water levels and residual currents in Singapore regional waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karri, Rama Rao; Badwe, Abhijit; Wang, Xuan; El Serafy, Ghada; Sumihar, Julius; Babovic, Vladan; Gerritsen, Herman

    2013-01-01

    Hydrodynamic models are commonly used for predicting water levels and currents in the deep ocean, ocean margins and shelf seas. Their accuracy is typically limited by factors, such as the complexity of the coastal geometry and bathymetry, plus the uncertainty in the flow forcing (deep ocean tide, winds and pressure). In Southeast Asian waters with its strongly hydrodynamic characteristics, the lack of detailed marine observations (bathymetry and tides) for model validation is an additional factor limiting flow representation. This paper deals with the application of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based data assimilation with the purpose of improving the deterministic model forecast. The efficacy of the EnKF is analysed via a twin experiment conducted with the 2D barotropic Singapore regional model. The results show that the applied data assimilation can improve the forecasts significantly in this complex flow regime.

  5. Water-Level Measurements for the Coastal Plain Aquifers of South Carolina Prior to Development

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aucott, Walter R.; Speiran, Gary K.

    1984-01-01

    Tabulations of water-level measurements for the Coastal Plain aquifers of South Carolina representing water levels prior to man-made development are presented. Included with the tabulations are local well number, location, land-surface altitude, well depth, screened interval, depth to water, water- level altitude, and date measured. These water-level measurements were used in compiling regional potentiometric maps for the Coastal Plain aquifers. This data set will be useful in the planning for future water-resource development.

  6. Assessment and prediction of contaminant migration in ground water from chromite waste dump

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwary, R. K.; Dhakate, R.; Ananda Rao, V.; Singh, V. S.

    2005-08-01

    Sukinda chromite valley is one of the largest chromite deposits of the country and produces nearly 8% of chromite ore. It greatly contributes towards the economic development but at the same time deteriorates the natural environment. It is generally excavated by opencast mining method. In the Sukinda mining area, around 7.6 million tons of solid waste have been generated in the form of rejected minerals, overburden material/waste rock and sub-grade ore that may be resulting in environmental degradation, mainly causing lowering in the water table vis-à-vis deterioration in surface and ground water quality. The study conducted in and around one of the chromite mine of the valley reveals that the concentration of hexavalent chromium is found in the water samples of ground and surface water, mine effluents and seepage water. Hexavalent Chromium (Cr+6) have been found varying between 0.02 mg/l and 0.12 mg/l in mine effluents and 0.03 0.8 mg/l in shallow hand pumps and 0.05 and 1.22 mg/l in quarry seepage. The concentration of Cr+6 in Damsal nalah, the main surface water source in the area, is found varying between 0.03 mg/l and 0.14 mg/l and a increasing trend, which is in the downstream of mining activities, has been observed. Leachate study clearly shows that the soil lying in the vicinity of mine waste dump shows highest concentration of Cr+6. Contaminant migration in ground water depends upon various geohydrological conditions of the area. The study shows that aquifer resistivity varies between 15 Ωm to 150 Ωm and aquifer depth varies from 4 m to 26 m below ground level. The ground water flow and mass transport models were constructed with the help of geo-hydrological and geophysical informations using Visual Modflow software. Contaminant migration and path lines for 20 years have been predicted in two layers model of ground water. The study provided an insight into the likely migration of contaminant in ground water due to leaching from overburden dump of chromite ore and will be helpful in making strategic planning for limiting the contaminant migration in the ground water regime in and around the mining areas.

  7. Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula.

    PubMed

    Nowosad, Jakub

    2016-06-01

    Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries. PMID:26487352

  8. Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowosad, Jakub

    2015-10-01

    Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries.

  9. Assimilation of spatially distributed water levels into a shallow-water flood model. Part II: Use of a remote sensing image of Mosel River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hostache, Renaud; Lai, Xijun; Monnier, Jérôme; Puech, Christian

    2010-09-01

    SummaryWith rapid flood extent mapping capabilities, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images of river inundation prove to be very relevant to operational flood management. In this context, a recently developed method provides distributed water levels from SAR images. Furthermore, in view of improving numerical flood prediction, a variational data assimilation method (4D-var) using such distributed water level has been developed in Part I of this study. This method combines an optimal sense remote sensing data (distributed water levels extracted from spatial images) and a 2D shallow water model. In the present article (Part II of the study), we also derive water levels with a ±40 cm average vertical uncertainty from a RADARSAT-1 image of a Mosel River flood event (1997, France). Assimilated in a 2D shallow water hydraulic model using the 4D-var developed method, these SAR derived spatially distributed water levels prove to be capable of enhancing model calibration. Indeed, the assimilation process can identify optimal Manning friction coefficients, at least in the river channel. Moreover, used as a guide for sensitivity analysis, remote sensing water levels allow also identifying some areas in the floodplain and the channel where Manning friction coefficients are homogeneous. This allows basing the spatial segmentation of roughness coefficient on floodplain hydraulic functioning.

  10. Self-affinity and surface area dependent fluctuations of lake water level time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Z.; Pelletier, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Variability in lake water level time series is commonly attributed to variability in climatic and hydrologic forcing. We present a spectral analysis of water level time series for 185 globally distributed lakes that suggests a previously unidentified source of internal variability within coupled lake-aquifer systems. Water level fluctuations universally follow a power law scaling of the power spectrum over the range of 30 days to 10 years indicating that lake levels are a 1/f type noise. The slope of the log transformed power spectrum is shown to be a linear function of the logarithm (base 10) of lake surface area. To understand the processes underlying these spectral characteristics, we develop a simple numerical model for lake fluctuations based on the governing equations for groundwater flow in an unconfined aquifer with stochastic forcing. The model robustly produces 1/f type power spectra across all lake sizes and predicts surface area dependence of the power spectrum. The close agreement between simulation and natural data suggests that spatial and temporal stochasticity of mass inputs and diffusion of the groundwater table are key processes for understanding lake level variability.

  11. Climate science: Water's past revisited to predict its future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirby, Matthew E.

    2016-04-01

    A reconstruction of 1,200 years of water's history in the Northern Hemisphere, based on proxy data, fuels the debate about whether anthropogenic climate change affected twentieth-century precipitation. See Letter p.94

  12. [Surveillance of perchlorate level in leafy vegetables and bottled water].

    PubMed

    Takatsuki, Satoshi; Watanabe, Takahiro; Sakai, Takatoshi; Matsuda, Rieko; Maitani, Tamio

    2009-08-01

    Perchlorate (ClO(4)(-)) is both a naturally occurring and artificial compound, and it inhibits iodide uptake into the thyroid gland and disturbs thyroid function. It has been detected in many foods in the United States. In order to investigate perchlorate contamination in foods in Japan, perchlorate level in 82 leafy vegetable samples and 20 bottled mineral water samples was measured using a procedure based on the FDA's procedure, employing IC-MS/MS with (18)O(4)-labeled perchlorate as an internal standard. Among 82 leafy vegetable samples tested, perchlorate levels were under the LOQ (0.3 ng/g) in 3 samples and ranged from 0.3 ng/g to 29.7 ng/g in 79 samples. In 20 bottled water samples, perchlorate was under the LOQ (0.1 ng/mL) in 14 samples and ranged from 0.14 ng/mL to 0.35 ng/mL in 6 samples. PMID:19745587

  13. Simulation and prediction of suprapermafrost groundwater level variation in response to climate change using a neural network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Juan; Wang, Genxu; Mao, Tianxu

    2015-10-01

    Suprapermafrost groundwater has an important role in the hydrologic cycle of the permafrost region. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of groundwater systems, which has limited our understanding of permafrost groundwater dynamics. There is still no effective mathematical method and theory to be used for modeling and forecasting the variation in the permafrost groundwater. Two ANN models, one with three input variables (previous groundwater level, temperature and precipitation) and another with two input variables (temperature and precipitation only), were developed to simulate and predict the site-specific suprapermafrost groundwater level on the slope scale. The results indicate that the three input variable ANN model has superior real-time site-specific prediction capability and produces excellent accuracy performance in the simulation and forecasting of the variation in the suprapermafrost groundwater level. However, if there are no field observations of the suprapermafrost groundwater level, the ANN model developed using only the two input variables of the accessible climate data also has good accuracy and high validity in simulating and forecasting the suprapermafrost groundwater level variation to overcome the data limitations and parameter uncertainty. Under scenarios of the temperature increasing by 0.5 or 1.0 °C per 10 years, the suprapermafrost groundwater level is predicted to increase by 1.2-1.4% or 2.5-2.6% per year with precipitation increases of 10-20%, respectively. There were spatial variations in the responses of the suprapermafrost groundwater level to climate change on the slope scale. The variation ratio and the amplitude of the suprapermafrost groundwater level downslope are larger than those on the upper slope under climate warming. The obvious vulnerability and spatial variability of the suprapermafrost groundwater to climate change will impose intensive effects on the water cycle and alpine ecosystems in the permafrost region.

  14. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN LEVELS OF HETEROTROPHIC BACTERIA AND WATER QUALITY PARAMETERS IN A DRINKING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conventional plating methods were used to quantify heterotrophic bacteria from a drinking water distribution system. Three media, plate count agar (PCA), R2A agar and sheep blood agar (TSA-SB) were used to determine heterotrophic plate count (HPC) levels. Grab samples were collec...

  15. Predicting runoff-induced pesticide input in agricultural sub-catchment surface waters: linking catchment variables and contamination.

    PubMed

    Dabrowski, James M; Peall, Sue K C; Van Niekerk, Adriaan; Reinecke, Adriaan J; Day, Jenny A; Schulz, Ralf

    2002-12-01

    An urgent need exists for applicable methods to predict areas at risk of pesticide contamination within agricultural catchments. As such, an attempt was made to predict and validate contamination in nine separate sub-catchments of the Lourens River, South Africa, through use of a geographic information system (GIS)-based runoff model, which incorporates geographical catchment variables and physicochemical characteristics of applied pesticides. We compared the results of the prediction with measured contamination in water and suspended sediment samples collected during runoff conditions in tributaries discharging these sub-catchments. The most common insecticides applied and detected in the catchment over a 3-year sampling period were azinphos-methyl (AZP), chlorpyrifos (CPF) and endosulfan (END). AZP was predominantly found in water samples, while CPF and END were detected at higher levels in the suspended particle samples. We found positive (p < 0.002) correlations between the predicted average loss and the concentrations of the three insecticides both in water and suspended sediments (r between 0.87 and 0.94). Two sites in the sub-catchment were identified as posing the greatest risk to the Lourens River mainstream. It is assumed that lack of buffer strips, presence of erosion rills and high slopes are the main variables responsible for the high contamination at these sites. We conclude that this approach to predict runoff-related surface water contamination may serve as a powerful tool for risk assessment and management in South African orchard areas. PMID:12448545

  16. Responses of Water and Salt Parameters to Groundwater Levels for Soil Columns Planted with Tamarix chinensis

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Jiangbao; Zhao, Ximei; Chen, Yinping; Fang, Ying; Zhao, Ziguo

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater is the main water resource for plant growth and development in the saline soil of the Yellow River Delta in China. To investigate the variabilities and distributions of soil water and salt contents at various groundwater level (GL), soil columns with planting Tamarix chinensis Lour were established at six different GL. The results demonstrated the following: With increasing GL, the relative soil water content (RWC) declined significantly, whereas the salt content (SC) and absolute soil solution concentration (CS) decreased after the initial increase in the different soil profiles. A GL of 1.2 m was the turning point for variations in the soil water and salt contents, and it represented the highest GL that could maintain the soil surface moist within the soil columns. Both the SC and CS reached the maximum levels in these different soil profiles at a GL of 1.2 m. With the raise of soil depth, the RWC increased significantly, whereas the SC increased after an initial decrease. The mean SC values reached 0.96% in the top soil layer; however, the rates at which the CS and RWC decreased with the GL were significantly reduced. The RWC and SC presented the greatest variations at the medium (0.9–1.2 m) and shallow water levels (0.6 m) respectively, whereas the CS presented the greatest variation at the deep water level (1.5–1.8 m).The RWC, SC and CS in the soil columns were all closely related to the GL. However, the correlations among the parameters varied greatly within different soil profiles, and the most accurate predictions of the GL were derived from the RWC in the shallow soil layer or the SC in the top soil layer. A GL at 1.5–1.8 m was moderate for planting T. chinensis seedlings under saline groundwater conditions. PMID:26730602

  17. Wind wave prediction in shallow water: Theory and applications

    SciTech Connect

    Cavaleri, L.; Rizzoli, P.M.

    1981-11-20

    A wind wave forecasting model is described, based upon the ray technique, which is specifically designed for shallow water areas. The model explicitly includes wave generation, refraction, and shoaling, while nonlinear dissipative processes (breaking and bottom fricton) are introduced through a suitable parametrization. The forecast is provided at a specified time and target position, in terms of a directional spectrum, from which the one-dimensional spectrum and the significant wave height are derived. The model has been used to hindcast storms both in shallow water (Northern Adriatic Sea) and in deep water conditions (Tyrrhenian Sea). The results have been compared with local measurements, and the rms error for the significant wave height is between 10 and 20%. A major problems has been found in the correct evaluation of the wind field.

  18. Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Diffusion in Water-Methanol, Water-Ethanol, and Water-Isopropanol Mixtures using the PC-SAFT Equation of State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Shu; Jiang, Charles; Yan, Yu; Kawaji, Masahiro; Saghir, M. Ziad

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, by combining the PC-SAFT equation of state (EOS) to the thermal diffusion models for non-associating mixtures, the theoretical prediction of thermal diffusion has been carried out for associating fluid mixtures including water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol. At first, the parameters of the PC-SAFT for water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol mixtures are optimized. Then, by comparing the predictive and experimental values of density and residual partial molar enthalpy in water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol mixtures, we demonstrate the capability of PC-SAFT EOS to reproduce reliable thermodynamic properties in these mixtures with a low to moderate water concentration. Finally, with the thermodynamic properties from the PC-SAFT, several thermal diffusion models available in the literature are extended to binary water-alcohol mixtures including water-methanol, water-ethanol, and water-isopropanol. The Firoozabadi model combined with the PC-SAFT EOS has shown an effective capability for predicting mixtures with a low to moderate water concentration.

  19. Water level response to 1999 Hurricane Floyd in the Chesapeake Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Jian; Gong, Wenping; Wang, Harry V.

    2006-12-01

    During the passage of Hurricane Floyd, a unique water level fluctuation occurred in the Chesapeake Bay with double high peaks of storm tide in the lower Bay and a moderate set-down in the upper Bay. The response of water level inside the Bay to the hurricane has been studied through analysis of observations and model simulations. The ADvance CIRculation (ADCIRC) model was applied to the Chesapeake Bay for this study. A high-resolution tide and storm surge model capable of storm surge prediction has been developed for the Bay. The study shows that the water level variation during the hurricane inside the Bay can be well explained by the superposition of two distinct physically driven mechanisms: storm tide that developed in the offshore regions propagating into the Bay and surge generated by local wind. The double peaks of storm tide that occurred in the lower Bay regions are mainly caused by the tidal component, which modulates the incoming surge wave generated in the offshore regions. The model experiments show that the incoming storm tide can propagate to the head of the estuary without much attenuation. Consequently, the superposition of the surge generated by the local northeasterly and northwesterly winds and the incoming storm tide results in an enhanced set-up in the lower Bay region, while the set-down in the upper Bay regions is reduced. The offshore water level variation influences the lower Bay regions more significantly. The storm tide propagating into the Bay accounts for most of the water level variation in the lower Bay regions during the storm.

  20. Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firat, Mahmut; Turan, Mustafa Erkan; Yurdusev, Mehmet Ali

    2009-08-01

    SummaryTwo types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.

  1. Predicting Crop Water Use from Ground Cover and Remote Sensing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Scheduling irrigations for horticultural crops with evapotranspiration calculations is difficult. Horticultural crops are grown under a wide range of cultural practices and conditions, making it difficult to select appropriate crop coefficients. A primary determinant of crop water use is light in...

  2. Project Water Science. General Science High School Level.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Water Education Foundation, Sacramento, CA.

    This teacher's guide presents 12 hands-on laboratory activities for high school science classes that cover the environmental issue of water resources in California. The activities are separated into three sections. Five activities in the section on water quality address the topics of groundwater, water hardness, bottled water, water purity, and…

  3. A predictive theory of intentions to exit street-level prostitution.

    PubMed

    Cimino, Andrea N

    2012-10-01

    Street-level prostitution is notoriously difficult to escape and rarely do women exit prostitution on their first attempt or without experiencing serious negative consequences to their physical or mental health. Unfortunately, few theories exist that explain the exiting process and those that do exist are difficult to test quantitatively. This article applies the integrative model of behavioral prediction to examine intentions to exit prostitution through attitudes, norms, and self-efficacy beliefs that underlie a woman's intention to exit prostitution. Constructs unique prostitution--agency and societal context--enhance the model. This theory may explain and predict an exit from street-level prostitution. PMID:23136182

  4. The prediction of en route noise levels for a DC-9 aircraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weir, Donald S.

    1988-01-01

    En route noise for advanced propfan powered aircraft has become an issue of concern for the Federal Aviation Administration. The NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) is used to demonstrate the source noise and propagation effects for an aircraft in level flight up to 35,000 feet altitude. One-third octave band spectra of the source noise, atmospheric absorption loss, and received noise are presented. The predicted maximum A-weighted sound pressure level is compared to measured data from the Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden. ANOPP is shown to be an effective tool in evaluating the en route noise characteristics of a DC-9 aircraft.

  5. Peak sound pressure and sound exposure level from underwater explosions in shallow water.

    PubMed

    Soloway, Alexander G; Dahl, Peter H

    2014-09-01

    Experimental measurements of the peak pressure and sound exposure level (SEL) from underwater explosions collected 7?km off the coast of Virginia Beach, Virginia are presented. The peak pressures are compared to results from previous studies and a semi-empirical equation that is a function of measurement range and charge weight, and are found to be in good agreement. An empirical equation for SEL that similarly employs a scaling approach involving charge weight and range is also presented and shows promise for the prediction of SEL in shallow water. PMID:25190424

  6. The application of powdered activated carbon for MIB and geosmin removal: predicting PAC doses in four raw waters.

    PubMed

    Cook, D; Newcombe, G; Sztajnbok, P

    2001-04-01

    Blooms of blue-green algae in reservoirs often produce the musty-earthy taste and odour algal metabolites 2-methylisoborneol (MIB) and geosmin. MIB and geosmin are not removed by conventional water treatment and their presence in the distribution system, even at low ng L-1 levels, can result in consumer complaints. Powdered activated carbon (PAC) can effectively remove MIB and geosmin when the correct dose is applied. The homogeneous surface diffusion model (HSDM) was used to predict PAC doses required to reduce MIB and geosmin concentrations to below 10 ng L-1 at four water treatment plants in Adelaide, South Australia. In jar tests, undertaken under treatment plant conditions, the predicted doses were found to produce water of the desired quality in three of the four waters. The poor predictions found in the fourth water, which had a considerably higher turbidity, were attributed to the incorporation of PAC in a larger, denser floc, leading to a reduced effective contact time of the adsorbent. It was found that higher doses of PAC were required for both compounds to produce acceptable quality water when turbidities rose above 26 NTU. PMID:11268853

  7. An empirical method for predicting the mixing noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, J. W.

    1984-01-01

    An empirical method for predicting the static free field source noise levels of subsonic circular and coaxial jet flow streams is presented. The method was developed from an extensive data base of 817 jet tests obtained from five different government and industry sources in three nations. The prediction method defines the jet noise in terms of four components which are overall power level, power spectrum level, directivity index, and relative spectrum level. The values of these noise level components are defined on a grid consisting of seven frequency parameter values (Strouhal numbers) and seven directivity angles. The value of the noise level at each of these grid points is called a noise level coordinate and was defined as a function of five jet exhaust flow state parameters which are equivalent jet velocity, equivalent jet total temperature, the velocity ratio (outer stream to inner stream), temperature ratio, and area ratio. The functions were obtained by curve fitting in a least squares sense the noise level coordinates from the data base in a five dimensional flow state space using a third order Taylor series. The noise level coordinates define the component noise levels for all frequencies and directivities through a bicubic spline function.

  8. Inflow, outflow, and water levels in Lake Michigan during the last part of the Wisconsin glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, L.; Attig, J.W. ); Mickelson, D.M. . Dept. of Geology and Geophysics)

    1992-01-01

    Between about 14,000 and 10,000 B.P., water flowed to and from Lake Michigan through several channels connected with adjacent glacial lakes and the Mississippi basin. Inflow and outflow depend on lake-level fluctuations, but no known lake-level chronology for the Lake Michigan basin explains all the supposed facts. Several kinds of information can be use to construct such a chronology: elevations of beaches, elevations and locations of outlets, ice-margin positions, till stratigraphy, and glacial history relative to outlets and lake-sediment distribution. If the crustal rebound predicted by J.A. Clark (bracketed by glacial Lake Wisconsin and Door Peninsula water planes) is used as the basis for a lake-level chronology, lake elevations would have been much higher than previously recognized, beaches previously thought to be late glacial must be middle Holocene, and the predicted sequence of spillways from glacial Lake Oshkosh, in the Green Bay basin, to Lake Michigan seems incompatible with the till stratigraphy of the region. On the other hand, a hinge line model such as proposed by J.W. Goldthwait allows far less rebound than is required by their knowledge of present-day rebound and by the rebound interpreted from shore features of glacial Lake Wisconsin. Therefore major flaws exist in their understanding of the glacial chronology and stratigraphy, of the glacial lake deposits, or of the crustal rebound; the reconstructed of inflow and outflow will remain uncertain until these conflicts are resolved.

  9. Space-time model to predict tropospheric ozone concentration levels in an industrial region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melo Durao, Rita; João Pereira, Maria; Soares, Amílcar

    2014-05-01

    The main goal of this work was to develop a space-time model to predict tropospheric ozone (O3) concentration levels in the surroundings of an industrial Portuguese region, Sines. Regional air quality monitoring network is composed by three conventional monitoring stations, which register hourly O3 concentrations levels on a high temporal resolution but with very low spatial resolution. To overcome the lack of spatial data to characterize ozone dispersion, O3 spatial patterns were obtained through several field campaigns of passive samplers (Radiello diffusive tubes) performed over time. This passive sampler allows collecting data on a high spatial density sampling design but for periods of time between 1 to 2 weeks for each campaign, obtaining O3 mean concentrations over this period. The proposed space-time model is based in a two steps methodology: 1. Time prediction of O3 concentration levels on monitoring stations location using Multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. 2. Spatial prediction of O3 concentration levels for the Sines region using block simulation. The main advantages of applying MLP networks to predict pollutant concentrations are that MLP models do not need exhaustive information about measured pollutant concentrations, reaction mechanisms, meteorological parameters or emission pollutant concentrations, identifying and reproducing nonlinear relationships between the different predictor variables. The developed MLP models presented good performances with values reaching up to 78% of prediction success of O3 hourly concentrations levels. In the second step Block Sequential Simulation (BSSIM) algorithm is applied to predict spatial pattern of O3 concentration levels. This simulation method is based on direct sequential simulation (DSS) (Soares, 2001), which does not require a non-linear transformation of the main variable; hence, data with different supports can be jointly used in the same model. In this study we considered O3 concentrations measured/predicted in point locations but in different time supports. Hence, BSSIM algorithm allowed the integration of hourly O3 concentration predictions at monitoring station locations and block data such as O3 mean ozone concentrations over the passive samplers exposure period of time on their locations. Block data error was set for different weather conditions, based on the field campaigns exposed data periods. Preliminary results are quite satisfactory since Block simulation seems able to reproduce the relation between real and predicted values, guaranteeing that the implementation conditions of the stochastic simulation algorithm (variograms, histograms and correlation coefficient of each pair of variables) are reproduced in the final results.

  10. Does Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) Predict Levels of Depressive Symptoms during Emerging Adulthood?

    PubMed

    Meinzer, Michael C; Pettit, Jeremy W; Waxmonsky, James G; Gnagy, Elizabeth; Molina, Brooke S G; Pelham, William E

    2016-05-01

    Little is known about the development and course of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood among individuals with a childhood history of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The aim of this study was to examine if a history of ADHD in childhood significantly predicted depressive symptoms during emerging adulthood (i.e., ages 18-25 years), including the initial level of depressive symptoms, continued levels of depressive symptoms at each age year, and the rate of change in depressive symptoms over time. 394 participants (205 with ADHD and 189 without ADHD; 348 males and 46 females) drawn from the Pittsburgh ADHD Longitudinal Study (PALS) completed annual self-ratings of depressive symptoms between the ages of 18 and 25 years. Childhood history of ADHD significantly predicted a higher initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18, and higher levels of depressive symptoms at every age year during emerging adulthood. ADHD did not significantly predict the rate of change in depressive symptoms from age 18 to age 25. Childhood history of ADHD remained a significant predictor of initial level of depressive symptoms at age 18 after controlling for comorbid psychiatric diagnoses, but not after controlling for concurrent ADHD symptoms and psychosocial impairment. Participants with childhood histories of ADHD experienced significantly higher levels of depressive symptoms than non-ADHD comparison participants by age 18 and continued to experience higher, although not increasing, levels of depressive symptoms through emerging adulthood. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed. PMID:26272531

  11. NOAA tsunami water level archive - scientific perspectives and discoveries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mungov, G.; Eble, M. C.; McLean, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and co-located World Data Service for Geophysics (WDS) provides long-term archive, data management, and access to national and global tsunami data. Currently, NGDC archives and processes high-resolution data recorded by the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) network, the coastal-tide-gauge network from the National Ocean Service (NOS) as well as tide-gauge data recorded by all gauges in the two National Weather Service (NWS) Tsunami Warning Centers' (TWCs) regional networks. The challenge in processing these data is that the observations from the deep-ocean, Pacific Islands, Alaska region, and United States West and East Coasts display commonalities, but, at the same time, differ significantly, especially when extreme events are considered. The focus of this work is on how time integration of raw observations (10-seconds to 1-minute) could mask extreme water levels. Analysis of the statistical and spectral characteristics obtained from records with different time step of integration will be presented. Results show the need to precisely calibrate the despiking procedure against raw data due to the significant differences in the variability of deep-ocean and coastal tide-gauge observations. It is shown that special attention should be drawn to the very strong water level declines associated with the passage of the North Atlantic cyclones. Strong changes for the deep ocean and for the West Coast have implications for data quality but these same features are typical for the East Coast regime.

  12. Ground-water levels near the top of the water-table mound, western Cape Cod, Massachusetts, 2002-04

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Massey, Andrew J.; Carlson, Carl S.; LeBlanc, Denis R.

    2006-01-01

    In January 2002 the U.S. Geological Survey began continuous water-level monitoring in three wells in the vicinity of the Southeast Ranges of Camp Edwards, near the Impact Area of the Massachusetts Military Reservation on Cape Cod. The purpose of this effort was to examine how water levels at sites with different unsaturated-zone thicknesses near the top of the water-table mound beneath western Cape Cod are affected by temporally variable recharge from precipitation, which is the sole source of water to the sand and gravel aquifer. The depths to water at the well sites are about 18, 30, and 101 feet below land surface. This report presents the first 3 years of water-level records and an estimate of aquifer recharge calculated from climatological measurements by the Jensen and Haise method and the Thornthwaite method. The water levels in the three wells varied temporally by about 4.5 feet during the study period. A comparison of the water levels with those measured in a nearby monitoring well with about 42 years of monthly measurements indicates that the 3-year monitoring period included the lowest water levels on western Cape Cod since the drought of the 1960's. The response of water levels to recharge was related to the depth to water. Water levels in the two wells with shallow depths to water responded quickly (within hours or days) to recharge, whereas the water-level response in the well with the greatest depth to water often lagged the recharge event by a month or more. The variations in the water levels among the wells changed as the location of the top of the water-table mound moved with the changing water-table altitude.

  13. Evaluation of Rock Mass Responses Using High Resolution Water-level Tiltmeter Arrays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, J. S.; Wang, H. F.; Fratta, D.; Stetler, L. D.; Volk, J. T.; Geox^Tm

    2010-12-01

    External forces act on the surface of the earth and produce deformation across all spatial and temporal scales. This research study focuses on the deformation evaluation of the rock-mass subjected to tidal, earthquake and surface forces. The events are monitored over horizontal distances of over 100 meters with tilt measurement arrays with a resolution of 10-8 radians. These measurements are obtained from hydrostatic leveling system (HLS) arrays that have been installed in the LaFarge mine in North Aurora, IL by Fermilab. Each sensor in the array is equipped with a water-filled reservoir beneath a capacitor. The amount of water in the reservoir is calculated as a function of the measured capacitance. Individual sensors are connected in a closed system via a water and air line. As the host rock expands and contracts sensors are raised relative to another and water is displaced. The water level in each reservoir is sent to a computer in the mine and recorded. In order to measure the tilt of the rock between two points, the difference in water levels between adjacent sensors is computed. The difference between the end sensors is also calculated to determine the larger-scale tilt of the array. The tiltmeters in LaFarge mine are supported by concrete pedestals installed on the floor of the drift. In the Homestake mine the tiltmeters are placed on similar pedestals, as well as platforms made of artificial wood decking. These platforms are fixed to the wall of the drift with a rock bolt. Time and frequency domain analyses were performed on time series ranging from hours to six months to capture relevant time scales including the response to the 2010 Chile Earthquake (hour-long scale), the stages of the moon (month scale), Fox River floods (flooding week long scales and pressure dissipation month-long scales). By monitoring tiltmeter array responses to different forces, we aim at making predictions about the material properties of rock masses.

  14. Pattern conversion prediction about low water content water-oil flow based on terahertz time domain spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shaohua; Wang, Wei; Wang, Aifan; Wei, Yunfei; Hao, He; Sun, Shining; Zhao, Kun

    2015-11-01

    This paper aims at presenting an approach for the experimental flow pattern conversion prediction. The water-diesel mixture flowed in the horizontal square tube with water contents of 0, 0.7%, 1.5%, 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively. After the mixture flowed steadily, the sample cell, in horizontal direction, was transmitted by the terahertz radiation and the terahertz time domain spectra were obtained for all the water-diesel mixtures. There is a critical velocity VT to all of the mixtures. If the flow rate is slower than VT, the mixtures flow with water bubbly pattern, however, the mixtures will flow with the water foggy pattern and the loss of the THz ray increased rapidly when the rate is faster than VT. Consequently, the mixture pattern conversion can be predicted by detecting the turning point of the THz ray loss.

  15. Concomitant prediction of function and fold at the domain level with GO-based profiles

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the function of newly sequenced proteins is crucial due to the pace at which these raw sequences are being obtained. Almost all resources for predicting protein function assign functional terms to whole chains, and do not distinguish which particular domain is responsible for the allocated function. This is not a limitation of the methodologies themselves but it is due to the fact that in the databases of functional annotations these methods use for transferring functional terms to new proteins, these annotations are done on a whole-chain basis. Nevertheless, domains are the basic evolutionary and often functional units of proteins. In many cases, the domains of a protein chain have distinct molecular functions, independent from each other. For that reason resources with functional annotations at the domain level, as well as methodologies for predicting function for individual domains adapted to these resources are required. We present a methodology for predicting the molecular function of individual domains, based on a previously developed database of functional annotations at the domain level. The approach, which we show outperforms a standard method based on sequence searches in assigning function, concomitantly predicts the structural fold of the domains and can give hints on the functionally important residues associated to the predicted function. PMID:23514233

  16. A biodynamic model predicting waterborne lead bioaccumulation in Gammarus pulex: Influence of water chemistry and in situ validation.

    PubMed

    Urien, N; Uher, E; Billoir, E; Geffard, O; Fechner, L C; Lebrun, J D

    2015-08-01

    Metals bioaccumulated in aquatic organisms are considered to be a good indicator of bioavailable metal contamination levels in freshwaters. However, bioaccumulation depends on the metal, the species, and the water chemistry that influences metal bioavailability. In the laboratory, a kinetic model was used to describe waterborne Pb bioaccumulated in Gammarus pulex. Uptake and elimination rate constants were successfully determined and the effect of Ca(2+) on Pb uptake was integrated into the model. Thereafter, accumulated Pb concentrations in organisms were predicted with the model and compared with those measured in native populations from the Seine watershed (France). The predictions had a good agreement with the bioaccumulation levels observed in native gammarids and particularly when the effect of calcium was considered. To conclude, kinetic parameters experimentally derived for Pb in G. pulex are applicable in environmental conditions. Moreover, the consideration of the water's chemistry is crucial for a reliable interpretation of bioaccumulation. PMID:25845358

  17. Exploring the Effects of Anisotropic Aquifer Transmissivity on the Water Level Response to Earth Tides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, L.; Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.

    2014-12-01

    The response of water level to Earth tides provides a unique probe to determine the in-situ aquifer transmissivity. The water level in an open well tapping an aquifer responds to the Earth tidal forcing with a phase lag. The phase lag between the water level oscillation and imposed tidal forcing is due to the finite time is needed for pore pressure to readjust and drive water to flow into and out of the well. The phase lag is a direct observation, and it is a key parameter to determine the transmissivity of the aquifer. Usually, people convert the phase lag information to an effective transmissivity using Hsieh et at. analytical solution (1987) by assuming the aquifer is confined, isotropic, homogeneous, infinite in lateral extent and of uniform thickness. However, the estimated transmissivity heavily relies on the assumption of an isotropic aquifer which is not true in reality. Anisotropic transmissivity would bias the interpretation of the phase lag information. Our study explores the phase response of water level to the semidiurnal Earth tide for different ratio of transmissivity in x and y directions by using the finite element method software Comsol. We find the estimated effective transmissivity is the lower bound of the transmissivity in fast direction for the same phase lag. We also find that the numerically determined phase lag can be predicted as a function of an effect transmissivity, and the effect transmissivity T can be expressed as T=(Ty*Tx1.4)0.4, where Ty is the transmissivity is slow direction, and Tx is the transmissivity in fast direction. Effective transmissivity is a combination weight between transmissivity in low and fast directions, and the transmissivity in fast direction would be the dominate parameter controlling the phase response. This empirical function may provide a way to estimate the range of transmissivity and anisotropic effects for the observed phase lag.

  18. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF LIGHT-INDUCED MORTALITY OF ENTEROCOCCI FAECALIS IN RECREATIONAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One approach to predictive modeling of biological contamination of recreational waters involves the application of process-based approaches that consider microbial sources, hydrodynamic transport, and microbial fate. This presentation focuses on one important fate process, light-...

  19. Tidal phase of Water level lags behind that of water temperature in Qi'xian observation well, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, B.; Ma, Y.; Huang, F.

    2014-12-01

    There are about 34 observation wells of water temperature which can record the effect of earth tide in national earthquake precursory network center. In most of the 34 wells, tidal phase of water temperature lag behind that of water level, but the opposite phenomenon exists in several observation wells. We take Qi'xian well which has long recording history and continuous data as an example to analyze this phenomenon. We check the instrument's time system by using water temperature and water level changes in response to some big earthquakes,and also check the tidal phase of water temperature and water level in Qi'xian well through harmonic analysis (Baytap-G software), as a result,we find the observation is objective. The fact that Tidal phase of Water level lags behind that of water temperature in Qi'xian observation well shows that water temperature changes may be independent from water level changes. Water temperature changes in this well might be interpreted by the stress-heat consumption hypothesis. This may be beneficial to the study of water temperature changes as an earthquake precursor. Figure 1. Water temperature and water level records of the Qi'xian well from February 26 to 27 in 2010.The coseismic changes due to the 2010 Sumatra earthquake is marked by an arrow.

  20. Pretransplant uric acid levels may be predictive for prognosis of renal transplant donors.

    PubMed

    Kulah, Eyup

    2016-05-01

    Background The living kidney donor counseling prior to the operation may be helpful to learn how to properly care for the remaining single kidney for the rest of their lives. Worsening kidney function is associated with elevated serum uric acid (UA) levels. In this study, we compared the baseline laboratory findings of renal transplant donors with their follow-up laboratory values. Methods The study consisted of 173 adult donors including 91 females and 82 males with a mean age of 46.82 ± 11.31 years. The follow-up clinical and laboratory examinations were performed on the third day at the end of the first and the sixth months of the surgery. According to donor's creatinine levels we constituted two groups: high creatinine and normal creatinine. Results Patients within the high creatinine group had significantly higher mean serum UA levels when compared with the normal creatinine group. In multivariate analysis, among the other effective variables, UA level alone was found to be the most effective parameter predicting the post-transplant creatinine levels (p = 0.004, odds ratio: 12.4, 95% CI: 2.3-68.3) at sixth month post-transplantation. In the ROC analysis for the effects of UA, the following cutoff values were found: >6 mg/dL in men (sensitivity 81.3%, specificity 76.9%, positive predictive value 89.7%, negative predictive value 62.5%, accuracy 80%) and ≥5 mg/dL in women (sensitivity 72.2, specificity 74.4%, positive predictive value 89.7%, negative predictive value 62.5%, accuracy: 73.7%). Conclusion Pretransplant serum UA levels can give important clues regarding the renal functions of the donors during the postoperative period. PMID:26888379

  1. Interactive effects of salinity and N on pepper yield, water use efficiency and root zone and drainage salinity: Experimental data and UNSATCHEM predictions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The aim of this study is to examine the effects of optimal and suboptimal N fertilizer levels in saline conditions on pepper plant and to predict the yield, soil water and drainage water EC and ETa using UNSATCHEM. The salinity effect on pepper plant biomass was statistically significant. Increasing...

  2. Predicting compliance with an information-based residential outdoor water conservation program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landon, Adam C.; Kyle, Gerard T.; Kaiser, Ronald A.

    2016-05-01

    Residential water conservation initiatives often involve some form of education or persuasion intended to change the attitudes and behaviors of residential consumers. However, the ability of these instruments to change attitudes toward conservation and their efficacy in affecting water use remains poorly understood. In this investigation the authors examine consumer attitudes toward complying with a persuasive water conservation program, the extent to which those attitudes predict compliance, and the influence of environmental contextual factors on outdoor water use. Results indicate that the persuasive program was successful in developing positive attitudes toward compliance, and that those attitudes predict water use. However, attitudinal variables explain a relatively small proportion of the variance in objectively measured water use behavior. Recommendations for policy are made stressing the importance of understanding both the effects of attitudes and environmental contextual factors in behavior change initiatives in the municipal water sector.

  3. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  4. Global Anthropogenic Phosphorus Loads to Fresh Water, Grey Water Footprint and Water Pollution Levels: A High-Resolution Global Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mekonnen, M. M.; Hoekstra, A. Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We estimated anthropogenic phosphorus (P) loads to freshwater, globally at a spatial resolution level of 5 by 5 arc minute. The global anthropogenic P load to freshwater systems from both diffuse and point sources in the period 2002-2010 was 1.5 million tonnes per year. China contributed about 30% to this global anthropogenic P load. India was the second largest contributor (8%), followed by the USA (7%), Spain and Brazil each contributing 6% to the total. The domestic sector contributed the largest share (54%) to this total followed by agriculture (38%) and industry (8%). Among the crops, production of cereals had the largest contribution to the P loads (32%), followed by fruits, vegetables, and oil crops, each contributing about 15% to the total. We also calculated the resultant grey water footprints, and relate the grey water footprints per river basin to runoff to calculate the P-related water pollution level (WPL) per catchment.

  5. Decadal predictability of soil water, vegetation, and wildfire frequency over North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Stevenson, Samantha; DiNezio, Pedro; Langford, Sally

    2015-10-01

    The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.0.3. The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized essentially by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades, since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, damped persistence hindcasts following a 1st order Markov process are skillful with lead times of up to several years. This potential multi-year skill estimate is consistent with ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. The long-term potential predictability of soil water variations in combination with the slow regrowth of vegetation after major disruptions leads to enhanced predictability on decadal timescales for vegetation, terrestrial carbon stock, and fire frequency, in particular in the Southern United States (US)/Mexico region. By contrast, the prediction skill of fire frequency in the Northern US is limited to 1 year. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

  6. Predicting Protein-Protein Interactions from the Molecular to the Proteome Level.

    PubMed

    Keskin, Ozlem; Tuncbag, Nurcan; Gursoy, Attila

    2016-04-27

    Identification of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) is at the center of molecular biology considering the unquestionable role of proteins in cells. Combinatorial interactions result in a repertoire of multiple functions; hence, knowledge of PPI and binding regions naturally serve to functional proteomics and drug discovery. Given experimental limitations to find all interactions in a proteome, computational prediction/modeling of protein interactions is a prerequisite to proceed on the way to complete interactions at the proteome level. This review aims to provide a background on PPIs and their types. Computational methods for PPI predictions can use a variety of biological data including sequence-, evolution-, expression-, and structure-based data. Physical and statistical modeling are commonly used to integrate these data and infer PPI predictions. We review and list the state-of-the-art methods, servers, databases, and tools for protein-protein interaction prediction. PMID:27074302

  7. Predicted and Measured Modal Sound Power Levels for a Fan Ingesting Distorted Inflow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koch, L. Danielle

    2010-01-01

    Refinements have been made to a method for estimating the modal sound power levels of a ducted fan ingesting distorted inflow. By assuming that each propagating circumferential mode consists only of a single radial mode (the one with the highest cut-off ratio), circumferential mode sound power levels can be computed for a variety of inflow distortion patterns and operating speeds. Predictions from the refined theory have been compared to data from an experiment conducted in the Advanced Noise Control Fan at NASA Glenn Research Center. The inflow to the fan was distorted by inserting cylindrical rods radially into the inlet duct. The rods were placed at an axial location one rotor chord length upstream of the fan and arranged in both regular and irregular circumferential patterns. The fan was operated at 2000, 1800, and 1400 rpm. Acoustic pressure levels were measured in the fan inlet and exhaust ducts using the Rotating Rake fan mode measurement system. Far field sound pressure levels were also measured. It is shown that predicted trends in circumferential mode sound power levels closely match the experimental data for all operating speeds and distortion configurations tested. Insight gained through this work is being used to develop more advanced tools for predicting fan inflow distortion tone noise levels.

  8. Supervised prediction of drug-induced nephrotoxicity based on interleukin-6 and -8 expression levels

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Drug-induced nephrotoxicity causes acute kidney injury and chronic kidney diseases, and is a major reason for late-stage failures in the clinical trials of new drugs. Therefore, early, pre-clinical prediction of nephrotoxicity could help to prioritize drug candidates for further evaluations, and increase the success rates of clinical trials. Recently, an in vitro model for predicting renal-proximal-tubular-cell (PTC) toxicity based on the expression levels of two inflammatory markers, interleukin (IL)-6 and -8, has been described. However, this and other existing models usually use linear and manually determined thresholds to predict nephrotoxicity. Automated machine learning algorithms may improve these models, and produce more accurate and unbiased predictions. Results Here, we report a systematic comparison of the performances of four supervised classifiers, namely random forest, support vector machine, k-nearest-neighbor and naive Bayes classifiers, in predicting PTC toxicity based on IL-6 and -8 expression levels. Using a dataset of human primary PTCs treated with 41 well-characterized compounds that are toxic or not toxic to PTC, we found that random forest classifiers have the highest cross-validated classification performance (mean balanced accuracy = 87.8%, sensitivity = 89.4%, and specificity = 85.9%). Furthermore, we also found that IL-8 is more predictive than IL-6, but a combination of both markers gives higher classification accuracy. Finally, we also show that random forest classifiers trained automatically on the whole dataset have higher mean balanced accuracy than a previous threshold-based classifier constructed for the same dataset (99.3% vs. 80.7%). Conclusions Our results suggest that a random forest classifier can be used to automatically predict drug-induced PTC toxicity based on the expression levels of IL-6 and -8. PMID:25521947

  9. Inorganic cobalt supplementation: prediction of cobalt levels in whole blood and urine using a biokinetic model.

    PubMed

    Unice, Kenneth M; Monnot, Andrew D; Gaffney, Shannon H; Tvermoes, Brooke E; Thuett, Kerry A; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Finley, Brent L

    2012-07-01

    Soluble cobalt (Co) supplements with recommended daily doses up to 1000 μg Co/day are increasingly being marketed to consumers interested in healthy living practices. For example, some athletes may consider using Co supplements as blood doping agents, as Co is known to stimulate erythropoesis. However, the distribution and excretion kinetics of ingested Co are understood in a limited fashion. We used a Co-specific biokinetic model to estimate whole blood and urine Co levels resulting from oral exposure or ingestion of Co in amounts exceeding typical dietary intake rates. Following 10 days of Co supplementation at a rate of 400 to 1000 μg/day, predicted adult Co concentrations range from 1.7 to 10 μg/L in whole blood, and from 20 to 120 μg/L in urine. Chronic supplementation (≥ 1 year) at a rate of 1000 μg Co/day is predicted to result in blood levels of 5.7 to 13 μg/L, and in urine levels from 65 to 150 μg/L. The model predictions are within those measured in humans following ingestion of known doses. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to predict urinary or blood Co levels following acute or chronic occupational incidental ingestion, medicinal therapy, supplemental intake, or other non-occupational exposures. PMID:22538081

  10. Genetic interactions for heat stress and production level: predicting foreign from domestic data

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Genetic by environmental interactions were estimated from U.S. national data by separately adding random regressions for heat stress (HS) and herd production level (HL) to the all-breed animal model to improve predictions of future records and rankings in other climate and production situations. Yie...

  11. Regulation of Motivation: Predicting Students' Homework Motivation Management at the Secondary School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Jianzhong

    2014-01-01

    This study examines models of variables posited to predict students' homework motivation management (HMM), based on survey data from 866 8th graders (61 classes) and 745 11th graders (46 classes) in the south-eastern USA. Most of the variance in HMM occurred at the student level, with parent education as the only significant predictor at the…

  12. Analysis of Predictive Factors that Influence Faculty Members Technology Adoption Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sahin, Ismail; Thompson, Ann

    2007-01-01

    This quantitative study used the Learning/Adoption Trajectory model of technology adoption as a scaffold to investigate whether a faculty adoption level of instructional technology in the College of Education (COE) at a large midwestern university in the US can be predicted by the faculty members' responses to questionnaire items in four areas:…

  13. Strength and Comprehensiveness of District School Wellness Policies Predict Policy Implementation at the School Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Marlene B.; Henderson, Kathryn E.; Falbe, Jennifer; Novak, Sarah A.; Wharton, Christopher M.; Long, Michael W.; O'Connell, Meghan L.; Fiore, Susan S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: In 2006, all local education agencies in the United States participating in federal school meal programs were required to establish school wellness policies. This study documented the strength and comprehensiveness of 1 state's written district policies using a coding tool, and tested whether these traits predicted school-level

  14. The Level of Quality of Work Life to Predict Work Alienation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erdem, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    The current research aims to determine the level of elementary school teachers' quality of work life (QWL) to predict work alienation. The study was designed using the relational survey model. The research population consisted of 1096 teachers employed at 25 elementary schools within the city of Van in the academic year 2010- 2011, and 346…

  15. Perceptions of Crowding: Predicting at the Residence, Neighborhood, and City Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Donald E.; And Others

    1979-01-01

    Details the results of a large-scale field study aimed at testing two theories on human crowding. Found that psychological factors are increasingly important for the prediction of crowding as one moved from the immediate residence to the less immediate city level. Implications, limitations and further results are discussed. (Author/MA)

  16. Prediction of altimetric sea level anomalies using time series models based on spatial correlation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miziński, Bartłomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2014-05-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) times series, which are time-varying gridded data, can be modelled and predicted using time series methods. This approach has been shown to provide accurate forecasts within the Prognocean system, the novel infrastructure for anticipating sea level change designed and built at the University of Wrocław (Poland) which utilizes the real-time SLA data from Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO). The system runs a few models concurrently, and our ocean prediction experiment includes both uni- and multivariate time series methods. The univariate ones are: extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model (PH), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and autoregressive prediction (PH+AR), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and self-exciting threshold autoregressive prediction (PH+SETAR). The following multivariate methods are used: extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and vector autoregressive prediction (PH+VAR), extrapolation of polynomial-harmonic model and generalized space-time autoregressive prediction (PH+GSTAR). As the aforementioned models and the corresponding forecasts are computed in real time, hence independently and in the same computational setting, we are allowed to compare the accuracies offered by the models. The objective of this work is to verify the hypothesis that the multivariate prediction techniques, which make use of cross-correlation and spatial correlation, perform better than the univariate ones. The analysis is based on the daily-fitted and updated time series models predicting the SLA data (lead time of two weeks) over several months when El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was in its neutral state.

  17. Application of empirical predictive modeling using conventional and alternative fecal indicator bacteria in eastern North Carolina waters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gonzalez, Raul; Conn, Kathleen E.; Crosswell, Joey; Noble, Rachel

    2012-01-01

    Coastal and estuarine waters are the site of intense anthropogenic influence with concomitant use for recreation and seafood harvesting. Therefore, coastal and estuarine water quality has a direct impact on human health. In eastern North Carolina (NC) there are over 240 recreational and 1025 shellfish harvesting water quality monitoring sites that are regularly assessed. Because of the large number of sites, sampling frequency is often only on a weekly basis. This frequency, along with an 18–24 h incubation time for fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) enumeration via culture-based methods, reduces the efficiency of the public notification process. In states like NC where beach monitoring resources are limited but historical data are plentiful, predictive models may offer an improvement for monitoring and notification by providing real-time FIB estimates. In this study, water samples were collected during 12 dry (n = 88) and 13 wet (n = 66) weather events at up to 10 sites. Statistical predictive models for Escherichiacoli (EC), enterococci (ENT), and members of the Bacteroidales group were created and subsequently validated. Our results showed that models for EC and ENT (adjusted R2 were 0.61 and 0.64, respectively) incorporated a range of antecedent rainfall, climate, and environmental variables. The most important variables for EC and ENT models were 5-day antecedent rainfall, dissolved oxygen, and salinity. These models successfully predicted FIB levels over a wide range of conditions with a 3% (EC model) and 9% (ENT model) overall error rate for recreational threshold values and a 0% (EC model) overall error rate for shellfish threshold values. Though modeling of members of the Bacteroidales group had less predictive ability (adjusted R2 were 0.56 and 0.53 for fecal Bacteroides spp. and human Bacteroides spp., respectively), the modeling approach and testing provided information on Bacteroidales ecology. This is the first example of a set of successful statistical predictive models appropriate for assessment of both recreational and shellfish harvesting water quality in estuarine waters.

  18. Predicting the Health of a Natural Water System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Gregory H.

    2010-01-01

    This project was developed as an interdisciplinary application of the optimization of a single-variable function. It was used in a freshman-level single-variable calculus course. After the first month of the course, students had been exposed to the concepts of the derivative as a rate of change, average and instantaneous velocities, derivatives of

  19. Predicting the Health of a Natural Water System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graves, Gregory H.

    2010-01-01

    This project was developed as an interdisciplinary application of the optimization of a single-variable function. It was used in a freshman-level single-variable calculus course. After the first month of the course, students had been exposed to the concepts of the derivative as a rate of change, average and instantaneous velocities, derivatives of…

  20. Decadal Potential Predictability of Soil Water, Vegetation, and Wildfire Frequency over North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chikamoto, Y.; Timmermann, A.; Stevenson, S. L.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Langford, S.

    2014-12-01

    The potential decadal predictability of land hydrological and biogeochemical variables in North America is examined using a 900-year-long pre-industrial control simulation, conducted with the NCAR Community EarthSystem Model (CESM). The leading modes of simulated North American precipitation and soil water storage are characterized by qualitatively similar meridional seesaw patterns associated with the downstream activity of the westerly jet. Whereas the corresponding precipitation variability can be described as a white noise stochastic process, power spectra of vertically integrated soil water exhibit significant redness on timescales of years to decades since the predictability of soil water storage arises mostly from the integration of precipitation variability. As a result, our ensemble hindcasts conducted with the CESM for various initial conditions are skillful with lead times of up to several years due to the long-term memory of damped persistence. Our control simulation further suggests that decadal variations in soil water storage also affect vegetation and wildfire occurrences. Our results demonstrate that skillful decadal predictions of soil water storage, carbon stock, and fire frequency are feasible with proper initialization of soil conditions. Although the potential predictability in our idealized modeling framework would overestimate the real predictability of the coupled climate-land-vegetation system, the decadal climate prediction may become beneficial for water resource management, forestry, and agriculture.

  1. Water levels and water-level changes in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan and Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifers, Twin Cities metropolitan area, Minnesota, 1971-80

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schoenberg, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Water-level data suggest that (1) little variation in annual pumpage between 1971 and 1980 from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer produced generally stable water levels in that aquifer, (2) decreased annual pumpage from the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer from 1971 to 1980 caused water levels in that aquifer to rise, and (3) a greater seasonal component of pumpage from the Mount Simon-Hinckley aquifer than from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan produced larger and more widespread seasonal water-level declines in the Mount Simon-Hinckley than in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan, particularly during dry years.

  2. Soil water balance scenario studies using predicted soil hydraulic parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemes, A.; Wsten, J. H. M.; Bouma, J.; Vrallyay, G.

    2006-03-01

    Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) have become a topic drawing increasing interest within the field of soil and environmental research because they can provide important soil physical data at relatively low cost. Few studies, however, explore which contributions PTFs can make to land-use planning, in terms of examining the expected outcome of certain changes in soil and water management practices. This paper describes three scenario studies that show some aspects of how PTFs may help improve decision making about land management practices. We use an exploratory research approach using simulation modelling to explore the potential effect of alternative solutions in land management. We: (i) evaluate benefits and risks when irrigating a field, and the impact of soil heterogeneity; (ii) examine which changes can be expected (in terms of soil water balance and supply) if organic matter content is changed as a result of an alternative management system; (iii) evaluate the risk of leaching to deeper horizons in some soils of Hungary. Using this research approach, quantitative answers are provided to what if? type questions, allowing the distinction of trends and potential problems, which may contribute to the development of sustainable management systems.

  3. Effects of sea-level rise on ground water flow in a coastal aquifer system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Masterson, J.P.; Garabedian, S.P.

    2007-01-01

    The effects of sea-level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density-dependent, three-dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea-level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea-level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea-level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

  4. Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein-protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    PubMed

    Zubek, Julian; Tatjewski, Marcin; Boniecki, Adam; Mnich, Maciej; Basu, Subhadip; Plewczynski, Dariusz

    2015-01-01

    Accurate identification of protein-protein interactions (PPI) is the key step in understanding proteins' biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein-protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein-protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC). Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent). PMID:26157620

  5. Multi-level machine learning prediction of protein–protein interactions in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

    PubMed Central

    Zubek, Julian; Tatjewski, Marcin; Boniecki, Adam; Mnich, Maciej; Basu, Subhadip

    2015-01-01

    Accurate identification of protein–protein interactions (PPI) is the key step in understanding proteins’ biological functions, which are typically context-dependent. Many existing PPI predictors rely on aggregated features from protein sequences, however only a few methods exploit local information about specific residue contacts. In this work we present a two-stage machine learning approach for prediction of protein–protein interactions. We start with the carefully filtered data on protein complexes available for Saccharomyces cerevisiae in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) database. First, we build linear descriptions of interacting and non-interacting sequence segment pairs based on their inter-residue distances. Secondly, we train machine learning classifiers to predict binary segment interactions for any two short sequence fragments. The final prediction of the protein–protein interaction is done using the 2D matrix representation of all-against-all possible interacting sequence segments of both analysed proteins. The level-I predictor achieves 0.88 AUC for micro-scale, i.e., residue-level prediction. The level-II predictor improves the results further by a more complex learning paradigm. We perform 30-fold macro-scale, i.e., protein-level cross-validation experiment. The level-II predictor using PSIPRED-predicted secondary structure reaches 0.70 precision, 0.68 recall, and 0.70 AUC, whereas other popular methods provide results below 0.6 threshold (recall, precision, AUC). Our results demonstrate that multi-scale sequence features aggregation procedure is able to improve the machine learning results by more than 10% as compared to other sequence representations. Prepared datasets and source code for our experimental pipeline are freely available for download from: http://zubekj.github.io/mlppi/ (open source Python implementation, OS independent). PMID:26157620

  6. Neural mechanisms to predict subjective level of fatigue in the future: a magnetoencephalography study

    PubMed Central

    Ishii, Akira; Tanaka, Masaaki; Watanabe, Yasuyoshi

    2016-01-01

    Fatigue is a major contributor to workplace accidents, morbidity, and mortality. To prevent the disruption of homeostasis and to concurrently accomplish an assigned workload, it is essential to control the level of workload based on the subjective estimation of the level of fatigue that will be experienced in the near future. In this study, we aimed to clarify the neural mechanisms related to predicting subjective levels of fatigue that would be experienced 60 min later, using magnetoencephalography. Sixteen healthy male volunteers participated in this study. In relation to the prediction, a decrease of alpha band power in the right Brodmann’s area (BA) 40 and BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms and that in the right BA 9 at 1350 to 1500 ms, and a decrease of gamma band power in the right BA 10 at 1500 to 1650 ms were observed. In addition, the decreased level of alpha band power in BA 9 at 1200 to 1350 ms was positively associated with the daily level of fatigue. These findings may help increase our understanding of the neural mechanisms activated to indicate the need to take a rest based on the prediction of the subjective fatigue in the future. PMID:27112115

  7. Construal Levels and Psychological Distance: Effects on Representation, Prediction, Evaluation, and Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Trope, Yaacov; Liberman, Nira; Wakslak, Cheryl

    2011-01-01

    Construal level theory (CLT) is an account of how psychological distance influences individuals’ thoughts and behavior. CLT assumes that people mentally construe objects that are psychologically near in terms of low-level, detailed, and contextualized features, whereas at a distance they construe the same objects or events in terms of high-level, abstract, and stable characteristics. Research has shown that different dimensions of psychological distance (time, space, social distance, and hypotheticality) affect mental construal and that these construals, in turn, guide prediction, evaluation, and behavior. The present paper reviews this research and its implications for consumer psychology. PMID:21822366

  8. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lipscomb, William

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  9. Prediction of the interior noise levels of high-speed propeller-driven aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rennison, D. C.; Wilby, J. F.; Wilby, E. G.

    1980-01-01

    The theoretical basis for an analytical model developed to predict the interior noise levels of high-speed propeller-driven airplanes is presented. Particular emphasis is given to modeling the transmission of discrete tones through a fuselage element into a cavity, estimates for the mean and standard deviation of the acoustic power flow, the coupling between a non-homogeneous excitation and the fuselage vibration response, and the prediction of maximum interior noise levels. The model allows for convenient examination of the various roles of the excitation and fuselage structural characteristics on the fuselage vibration response and the interior noise levels, as is required for the design of model or prototype noise control validation tests.

  10. Late Holocene land- and sea-level changes in the British Isles: implications for future sea-level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gehrels, W. Roland

    2010-07-01

    Four decades of palaeosea-level research in the British Isles have produced a large dataset of age-altitude curves of postglacial sea-level changes. Patterns of late Holocene relative sea-level change reveal the persistent influence of the British/Irish Ice Sheet and the larger Scandinavian Ice Sheet on contemporary rates of vertical land movements. The Shennan and Horton (2002) map of late Holocene relative land movements has been used in future sea-level rise predictions by the United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme in their 2002 assessment (UKCIP02), but has been mistaken for a map of absolute land movements. In this paper, land-motion data for Britain are extracted from the Shennan and Horton (2002) relative sea-level data, and a new map of crustal land movements is presented which also includes Ireland. This procedure takes into account the regional 20th century sea-level rise (˜0.14 m) and the process of ocean syphoning ( i.e. a global fall in sea level of ˜0.3 mm/yr due to GIA induced ocean-floor lowering and re-distribution of ocean mass). The calculated land-motion rates also depend on the global late Holocene ice-equivalent sea-level change, given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as 0.0-0.2 mm/yr. Accounting for these processes reduces the misfit between geological observations of vertical land motion and those independently derived from gravity-aligned Global Positioning System (AG GPS) measurements and shows that UKCIP02 has underestimated land subsidence in southern Britain and over-estimated land uplift in Scotland, both by 0.1-0.2 mm/yr. A best fit between GPS and geological estimates of land movements in Britain is achieved for a global long-term eustatic sea-level fall of ca 0.2 mm/yr, suggesting some global ice expansion in the late Holocene, rather than melt. If this is correct, uplift rates in Scotland would be lower and subsidence rates in southern Britain would be faster (by 0.4-0.5 mm/yr) than estimated by UKCIP02. More high-quality late Holocene relative sea-level data are required to quantify vertical land motion as accurately as possible, especially near large coastal population centres, for input into regional scenarios of future sea-level rise.

  11. Prediction of alternative isoforms from exon expression levels in RNA-Seq experiments

    PubMed Central

    Richard, Hugues; Schulz, Marcel H.; Sultan, Marc; Nürnberger, Asja; Schrinner, Sabine; Balzereit, Daniela; Dagand, Emilie; Rasche, Axel; Lehrach, Hans; Vingron, Martin; Haas, Stefan A.; Yaspo, Marie-Laure

    2010-01-01

    Alternative splicing, polyadenylation of pre-messenger RNA molecules and differential promoter usage can produce a variety of transcript isoforms whose respective expression levels are regulated in time and space, thus contributing specific biological functions. However, the repertoire of mammalian alternative transcripts and their regulation are still poorly understood. Second-generation sequencing is now opening unprecedented routes to address the analysis of entire transcriptomes. Here, we developed methods that allow the prediction and quantification of alternative isoforms derived solely from exon expression levels in RNA-Seq data. These are based on an explicit statistical model and enable the prediction of alternative isoforms within or between conditions using any known gene annotation, as well as the relative quantification of known transcript structures. Applying these methods to a human RNA-Seq dataset, we validated a significant fraction of the predictions by RT-PCR. Data further showed that these predictions correlated well with information originating from junction reads. A direct comparison with exon arrays indicated improved performances of RNA-Seq over microarrays in the prediction of skipped exons. Altogether, the set of methods presented here comprehensively addresses multiple aspects of alternative isoform analysis. The software is available as an open-source R-package called Solas at http://cmb.molgen.mpg.de/2ndGenerationSequencing/Solas/. PMID:20150413

  12. Ground-water levels in water year 1987 and estimated ground-water pumpage in water years 1986-87, Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berger, D.L.

    1990-01-01

    Groundwater levels were measured at 58 wells during water year 1987 and a summary of estimated pumpage is given for water years 1986 and 1987 in Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada. The data were collected to provide a record of groundwater changes over the long-term and pumpage estimates that can be incorporated into an existing groundwater model. The estimated total pumpage in water year 1986 was 10,200 acre-ft and in water year 1987 was 13,400 acre-ft. Groundwater levels exhibited seasonal fluctuations but remained relatively stable over the reporting period throughout most of the valley. (USGS)

  13. Modeling hydrodynamics, water quality, and benthic processes to predict ecological effects in Narragansett Bay

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) was used to study the three dimensional (3D) circulation, water quality, and ecology in Narragansett Bay, RI. Predictions of the Bay hydrodynamics included the behavior of the water surface elevation, currents, salinity, and temperatur...

  14. Implementation of Channel-Routing Routines in the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based, continuous-simulation, watershed hydrology and erosion model. It is an important tool for water erosion simulation owing to its unique functionality in representing diverse landuse and management conditions. Its applicability is l...

  15. PREDICTING SUSTAINABLE GROUND WATER TO CONSTRUCTED RIPARIAN WETLANDS: SHAKER TRACE, OHIO, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Water isotopy is introduced as a best management practice for the prediction of sustained ground water inflows to prospective constructed wetlands. A primer and application of the stable isotopes, 18O and 2H, are discussed for riparian wetland restoration ar...

  16. Simulated changes in water levels in the Minjur Aquifer, Riyadh area, Saudi Arabia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, J.F.; Sagaby, I.A.

    1982-01-01

    A two-dimensional finite-difference computer model of the Minjur aquifer in the Riyadh area of Saudi Arabia was developed to simulate and predict drawdown in an aquifer which, in 1979, supplied more than 80 percent of all water used in this capital area. The Minjur was modeled as a confined aquifer recharged by leakage through underlying confining beds. Pumpage was simulated for a 23-year period during which it increased from 2,160 to 220 ,000 cubic meters per day. At Riyadh, the top of the Minjur aquifer is about 1200 meters below land surface. Aquifer thickness within the 40,000-square-kilometer study area ranges from 74 to 138 meters inclusively. Values for aquifer characteristics used in the model are: transmissivity, from 0.001 to 0.0062 square meters per second; storage coefficients, 0.07 for the unconfined, and 0.0004 for the confined sectors of the model area. A value of 0.02 meters per second was used to represent the vertical conductivity of the confining bed. Predictive simulations indicate that if the Minjur aquifer in the Riyadh area is stressed by estimated future pumpages, static water-level declines ranging from 10 up to and including 90 meters, depending on location, will occur from 1980 through 1999. Simulations also demonstrated that pumping levels in the new Buwayb well field will decline substantially from 1980 through 1981. (USGS)

  17. The Water Level Fall of Lake Megali Prespa (N Greece): an Indicator of Regional Water Stress Driven by Climate Change and Amplified by Water Extraction?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Schriek, Tim; Giannakopoulos, Christos

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change, with future projections predicting an increase in excessive drought events and declining rainfall. Regional freshwater ecosystems are particularly threatened: precipitation decreases, while extreme droughts increase and human impacts intensify (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Many Mediterranean lake-wetland systems have shrunk or disappeared over the past two decades. Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity and for ensuring sustainable water availability. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of lake-wetland hydrological responses to natural and human-induced changes, which is currently lacking in many parts of the Mediterranean. The interconnected Prespa-Ohrid Lake system is a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism. The unprecedented fall in water level (~8m) of Lake Megali Prespa threatens this system, but causes remain debated. Modelling suggests that the S Balkan will experience rainfall and runoff decreases of ~30% by 2050. However, projections revealing the potential impact of these changes on future lake level are unavailable as lake regime is not understood. A further drop in lake level may have serious consequences. The Prespa Lakes contribute ~25% of the total inflow into Lake Ohrid through underground karst channels; falling lake levels decrease this discharge. Lake Ohrid, in turn, feeds the Drim River. This entire catchment may therefore be affected by falling lake levels; its water resources are of great importance for Greece, Albania, FYROM and Montenegro (e.g. tourism, agriculture, hydro-energy, urban & industrial use). This new work proves that annual water level fluctuations of Lake Megali Prespa are predominantly related to precipitation during the first 7 months (Oct-Apr) of the hydrological year (Oct-Sep). Lake level is very sensitive to regional and Mediterranean wet-dry events during this period. There are robust indications for a link between lake level and the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is known to strongly influence Mediterranean winter precipitation. Hydro-climatic records show a complicated picture, but tentatively support the conclusion that the unprecedented lake level fall is principally related to climate change. The available fluvial discharge record and most existing snowfall records show statistically significant decreases in annual averages. Annual rainfall only shows a statistically significant decrease of the 25th percentile; 7-month rainfall (Oct-Apr) additionally shows a statistically significant but non-robust decrease of the mean. The modest amount of water extraction (annually: ~14*103m3, ~0.004% of total lake volume) exerts a progressive and significant impact on lake level over the longer term, accounting for ~25% of the observed fall. Lake level lowering ends when lake-surface area shrinkage has led to a decrease in lake-surface evaporation that is equivalent to the amount of water extracted. The adjustment of lake level to stable extraction rates requires two to three decades. This work aims to steer adaptation and mitigation strategies by informing on lake response under different climate change and extraction scenarios. Lake protection is a cost effective solution for supporting global biodiversity and for providing sustainable water resources.

  18. A Noise Level Prediction Method Based on Electro-Mechanical Frequency Response Function for Capacitors

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

  19. A noise level prediction method based on electro-mechanical frequency response function for capacitors.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Lingyu; Ji, Shengchang; Shen, Qi; Liu, Yuan; Li, Jinyu; Liu, Hao

    2013-01-01

    The capacitors in high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) converter stations radiate a lot of audible noise which can reach higher than 100 dB. The existing noise level prediction methods are not satisfying enough. In this paper, a new noise level prediction method is proposed based on a frequency response function considering both electrical and mechanical characteristics of capacitors. The electro-mechanical frequency response function (EMFRF) is defined as the frequency domain quotient of the vibration response and the squared capacitor voltage, and it is obtained from impulse current experiment. Under given excitations, the vibration response of the capacitor tank is the product of EMFRF and the square of the given capacitor voltage in frequency domain, and the radiated audible noise is calculated by structure acoustic coupling formulas. The noise level under the same excitations is also measured in laboratory, and the results are compared with the prediction. The comparison proves that the noise prediction method is effective. PMID:24349105

  20. Elevated Urinary IL-18 Levels at the Time of ICU Admission Predict Adverse Clinical Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Siew, Edward D.; Ikizler, T. Alp; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Shintani, Ayumi; Wickersham, Nancy; Bossert, Frederick; Peterson, Josh F.; Parikh, Chirag R.; May, Addison K.

    2010-01-01

    Background and objectives: Urine IL-18 (uIL-18) has demonstrated moderate capacity to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) and adverse outcomes in defined settings. Its ability to predict AKI and provide prognostic information in broadly selected, critically ill adults remains unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: The study prospectively evaluated the capacity of uIL-18 measured within 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission to predict AKI, death, and receipt of acute dialysis in a large mixed-adult ICU population. Results: Of 451 patients, 86 developed AKI within 48 hours of enrollment and had higher median uIL-18 levels [426 (interquartile range [IQR]: 152 to 1183) pg/mg creatinine] compared with those without AKI [248 (IQR: 120 to 559) pg/mg]. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for uIL-18 predicting subsequent AKI within 24 hours was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.69) and improved modestly to 0.67 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.81) in patients whose enrollment eGFR was ?75 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The highest median uIL-18 levels were observed in patients with sepsis at enrollment [508 (IQR: 230 to 1281) pg/mg], those receiving acute dialysis [571 (IQR: 161 to 1614) pg/mg] or dying [532 (IQR: 210 to 1614) pg/mg] within 28 days of ascertainment. After adjustment for a priori selected clinical predictors, uIL-18 remained independently predictive of composite outcome of death or acute dialysis within 28 days of ascertainment (odds ratio, 1.86 [95% CI: 1.31 to 2.64]). Conclusions: uIL-18 did not reliably predict AKI development, but did predict poor clinical outcomes in a broadly selected, critically ill adult population. PMID:20558561

  1. Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt.

    PubMed

    Brodbeck, Jeannette; Bachmann, Monica S; Znoj, Hansjörg

    2013-06-01

    This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks. PMID:23501139

  2. Parameterizing a model of Douglas fir water flow using a tracheid-level model.

    PubMed

    Aumann, Craig A; Ford, E David

    2002-12-21

    The theory of tree water flow proposed in Aumann & Ford (submitted) is assessed by numerically solving the model developed from this theory under a variety of functional parameterizations. The unknown functions in this nonlinear partial differential equation model are determined using a tracheid-level model of water flow in a block of Douglas fir tracheids. The processes of flow, cavitation, pit aspiration/deaspiration, flow through the cell wall and ray exudation in a block of approximately 79 000 tracheids are modeled. Output from the tracheid model facilitates determination of the hydraulic conductivities in the sapwood as a function of saturation and interfacial area between liquid and gaseous phases of water, the function governing the rate of change in saturation, and the function governing the rate of change in interfacial area. The models show complementary things. The tracheid model shows that capacitance, or the change in saturation per change in pressure, is not constant. When all refilling is stopped, it takes over 180 days for the hydraulic conductivity in the vertical direction to reach 1/4 of its maximal value, showing the robustness of the transpiration stream for conducting water. The shape of the functions determined with the tracheid model change with different tracheid-level assumptions. When these functions are used in the differential equation model, it is shown that cell-wall conductivity plays an important part in the lag in flow observed in many conifers. The flow velocities and rates of change in saturation predicted by the differential equation model agree with those measured in Douglas fir. Both models support the theory of tree water flow presented in Aumann & Ford (submitted) and undermine the theory that water flow in trees is analogous to the flow of current in electric circuits. PMID:12425978

  3. Spatial and temporal statistical analysis of a ground-water level network, Broward County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, E.D.; Sonenshein, R.S.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a method to evaluate the spatial and temporal statistics of a continuous ground-water level recorder network in Broward County, Florida. Because the Broward County network is sparse for most spatial statistics, a technique has been developed to define polygons for each well that represent the area monitored by the well within specified criteria. The boundaries of these "confidence polygons" are defined by the endpoints of radial lines oriented toward the other wells. The lengths of these lines are determined as the statistically estimated distances to the points at which ground-water levels can be predicted within specirfied criteria. The confidence polygons indicate: (1) the areal coverage of the network, (2) locations where data are unavailable, and (3) areas of redundant data collection. Comparison with data from a noncontinuous recorder well indicates that the confidence polygons are a good represen- tation of areal coverages. The temporal analysis utilizes statistical techniques similar to those used in the spatial method, defining variations in time rather than in space. Consequently, instead of defining radial distances to points, time intervals are defined over which water-level values can be predicted within a specified confidence. These "temporal confidence intervals" correspond to maximum allowable periods between field measure- ments. To combine all results from the analyses, a single coefficient reflecting the spatial and temporal results has been developed. The coefficient is referred to as the Spatial and Temporal Adequacy and Redundancy Evaluation (STARE) and is determined by three factors: the size of the confidence polygon, the number of times the well is part of a redundant pair, and the temporal confidence interval. This coefficient and the individual results of each analysis are used in evaluating the present network and determining future management decisions.

  4. Ground-water monitoring at Santa Barbara, California; Phase 2, Effects of pumping on water levels and on water quality in the Santa Barbara ground-water basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Peter

    1984-01-01

    From July 1978 to January 1980, water levels in the southern part of the Santa Barbara ground-water basin declined more than 100 feet. These water-level declines resulted from increases in municipal pumping since July 1978. The increase in municipal pumping was part of a basin-testing program designed to determine the usable quantity of ground water in storage. The pumping, centered in the city less than 1 mile from the coast, has caused water-level declines to altitudes below sea level in the main water-bearing zones. As a result, the ground-water basin would be subject to saltwater intrusion if the study-period pumpage were maintained or increased. Data indicate that saltwater intrusion has degraded the quality of the water yielded from six coastal wells. During the study period, the six coastal wells all yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 250 milligrams per liter, and four of the wells yielded water with chloride concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Previous investigators believed that saltwater intrusion was limited to the shallow part of the aquifer, directly adjacent to the coast. The possibility of saltwater intrusion into the deeper water-bearing deposits in the aquifer was thought to be remote because an offshore fault truncates these deeper deposits so that they lie against consolidated rocks on the seaward side of the fault. Results of this study indicate, however, that ocean water has intruded the deeper water-bearing deposits, and to a much greater extent than in the shallow part of the aquifer. Apparently the offshore fault is not an effective barrier to saltwater intrusion. No physical barriers are known to exist between the coast and the municipal well field. Therefore, if the pumping rate maintained during the basin-testing program were continued, the degraded water along the coast could move inland and contaminate the municipal supply wells. The time required for the degraded water to move from the coast to the nearest supply well is estimated, using Darcy's equation, to be about 20 years. Management alternatives for controlling saltwater intrusion in the Santa Barbara area include (1) decreasing municipal pumping, (2) increasing the quantity of water available for recharge by releasing surplus water from surface reservoirs to Mission Creek, (3) artificially recharging the basin using injection wells, and (4) locating municipal supply wells farther from the coast and spacing them farther apart in order to minimize drawdown. Continued monitoring of water levels and water quality would enable assessment of the effectiveness of the control measures employed.

  5. Survey of fluoride levels in vended water stations.

    PubMed

    Jadav, Urvi G; Archarya, Bhavini S; Velasquez, Gisela M; Vance, Bradley J; Tate, Robert H; Quock, Ryan L

    2014-01-01

    This study sought to measure the fluoride concentration of water derived from vended water stations (VWS) and to identify its clinical implications, especially with regard to caries prevention and fluorosis. VWS and corresponding tap water samples were collected from 34 unique postal zip codes; samples were analyzed in duplicate for fluoride concentration. Average fluoride concentration in VWS water was significantly lower than that of tap water (P < 0.001). Fluoride concentration in the VWS water ranged from <0.01 ppm to 0.04 ppm, with a mean concentration of 0.02 ppm (±0.02 ppm). Patients utilizing VWS as their primary source of drinking water may not be receiving optimal caries preventive benefits; thus dietary fluoride supplementation may be indicated. Conversely, to minimize the risk of fluorosis in infants consuming reconstituted infant formula, water from a VWS may be used. PMID:25184716

  6. Use of predictive models and rapid methods to nowcast bacteria levels at coastal beaches

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francy, D.S.

    2009-01-01

    The need for rapid assessments of recreational water quality to better protect public health is well accepted throughout the research and regulatory communities. Rapid analytical methods, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and immunomagnetic separation/adenosine triphosphate (ATP) analysis, are being tested but are not yet ready for widespread use. Another solution is the use of predictive models, wherein variable(s) that are easily and quickly measured are surrogates for concentrations of fecal-indicator bacteria. Rainfall-based alerts, the simplest type of model, have been used by several communities for a number of years. Deterministic models use mathematical representations of the processes that affect bacteria concentrations; this type of model is being used for beach-closure decisions at one location in the USA. Multivariable statistical models are being developed and tested in many areas of the USA; however, they are only used in three areas of the Great Lakes to aid in notifications of beach advisories or closings. These "operational" statistical models can result in more accurate assessments of recreational water quality than use of the previous day's Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration as determined by traditional culture methods. The Ohio Nowcast, at Huntington Beach, Bay Village, Ohio, is described in this paper as an example of an operational statistical model. Because predictive modeling is a dynamic process, water-resource managers continue to collect additional data to improve the predictive ability of the nowcast and expand the nowcast to other Ohio beaches and a recreational river. Although predictive models have been shown to work well at some beaches and are becoming more widely accepted, implementation in many areas is limited by funding, lack of coordinated technical leadership, and lack of supporting epidemiological data. ?? 2009 AEHMS.

  7. Prediction of Shock-Induced Cavitation in Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, Aaron

    2013-06-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading has wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over pre-existing CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  8. Prediction of shock-induced cavitation in water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brundage, A.

    2014-05-01

    Fluid-structure interaction problems that require estimating the response of thin structures within fluids to shock loading have wide applicability. For example, these problems may include underwater explosions and the dynamic response of ships and submarines; and biological applications such as Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and wound ballistics. In all of these applications the process of cavitation, where small cavities with dissolved gases or vapor are formed as the local pressure drops below the vapor pressure due to shock hydrodynamics, can cause significant damage to the surrounding thin structures or membranes if these bubbles collapse, generating additional shock loading. Hence, a two-phase equation of state (EOS) with three distinct regions of compression, expansion, and tension was developed to model shock-induced cavitation. This EOS was evaluated by comparing data from pressure and temperature shock Hugoniot measurements for water up to 400 kbar, and data from ultrasonic pressure measurements in tension to -0.3 kbar, to simulated responses from CTH, an Eulerian, finite volume shock code. The new EOS model showed significant improvement over preexisting CTH models such as the SESAME EOS for capturing cavitation.

  9. Predicting inhomogeneous water absorption in an ionic diblock polymer membrane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herbst, Daniel; Witten, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Fuel cells convert fuel directly into electrical power. Their performance depends on a permeable (yet strong) membrane to allow ion conduction (while preventing combustion). Anion-exchange membrane fuel-cells are especially economical to produce, but technological hurdles currently limit durability and OH- conductivity of the membrane. One solution to these problems is a diblock morphology. Layers of stiff hydrophobic polymer provide structure, while interspersed layers of polyelectrolyte provide avenues for conduction. Previously, little was known about the structure within the conducting layer. We adapted Scheutjens-Fleer polymer-brush theory to a lamellar geometry. The calculation tells where the polyelectrolytes congregate within a lamella, and hence how conduction occurs. This talk focuses on a new diblock material, PMB-PVBTMA. We show how the features of the material determine the intra-lamellar structure. We conclude that at low humidity, the bulkiness of PVBTMA causes it to adopt a near-uniform distribution within the conducting block. At high humidity, however, a phase separation may induce abrupt water channels. Understanding the architecture within the conducting layer will help guide research into better anion-exchange membranes materials. The authors would like to thank the Army Research Office for support of this research under the MURI #W911NF-10-1-0520.

  10. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, Hugh; Wade, Jeremy

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or "plant") in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10%-30% of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) in five houses near Syracuse, NY, and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  11. Disaggregating Hot Water Use and Predicting Hot Water Waste in Five Test Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, H.; Wade, J.

    2014-04-01

    While it is important to make the equipment (or 'plant') in a residential hot water system more efficient, the hot water distribution system also affects overall system performance and energy use. Energy wasted in heating water that is not used is estimated to be on the order of 10 to 30 percent of total domestic hot water (DHW) energy use. This field monitoring project installed temperature sensors on the distribution piping (on trunks and near fixtures) and programmed a data logger to collect data at 5 second intervals whenever there was a hot water draw. This data was used to assign hot water draws to specific end uses in the home as well as to determine the portion of each hot water that was deemed useful (i.e., above a temperature threshold at the fixture). Five houses near Syracuse NY were monitored. Overall, the procedures to assign water draws to each end use were able to successfully assign about 50% of the water draws, but these assigned draws accounted for about 95% of the total hot water use in each home. The amount of hot water deemed as useful ranged from low of 75% at one house to a high of 91% in another. At three of the houses, new water heaters and distribution improvements were implemented during the monitoring period and the impact of these improvements on hot water use and delivery efficiency were evaluated.

  12. Comparison of predictive ability of water solubility QSPR models generated by MLR, PLS and ANN methods.

    PubMed

    Erös, Dániel; Kéri, György; Kövesdi, István; Szántai-Kis, Csaba; Mészáros, György; Orfi, László

    2004-02-01

    ADME/Tox computational screening is one of the most hot topics of modern drug research. About one half of the potential drug candidates fail because of poor ADME/Tox properties. Since the experimental determination of water solubility is time-consuming also, reliable computational predictions are needed for the pre-selection of acceptable "drug-like" compounds from diverse combinatorial libraries. Recently many successful attempts were made for predicting water solubility of compounds. A comprehensive review of previously developed water solubility calculation methods is presented here, followed by the description of the solubility prediction method designed and used in our laboratory. We have selected carefully 1381 compounds from scientific publications in a unified database and used this dataset in the calculations. The externally validated models were based on calculated descriptors only. The aim of model optimization was to improve repeated evaluations statistics of the predictions and effective descriptor scoring functions were used to facilitate quick generation of multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), partial least squares method (PLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with optimal predicting ability. Standard error of prediction of the best model generated with ANN (with 39-7-1 network structure) was 0.72 in logS units while the cross validated squared correlation coefficient (Q(2)) was better than 0.85. These values give a good chance for successful pre-selection of screening compounds from virtual libraries, based on the predicted water solubility. PMID:14965289

  13. Can sediment data be used to predict alkalinity and base cation chemistry of surface waters?

    PubMed

    Begum, S; McClean, C J; Cresser, M S; Breward, N

    2010-12-15

    We hypothesise that stream sediment elemental composition can predict mean and minimum concentrations of alkalinity, Ca and Mg in the river water throughout a river network. We tested this hypothesis for the River Derwent catchment in North Yorkshire, England, by using 6 years of water chemistry data from the Environment Agency and a digital elevation model to flow path-weight British Geological Survey (BGS) sediment element concentration data. The predictive models for mean concentrations were excellent for Ca and alkalinity, but less good for Mg, and did not require land use data inputs as stream water sediment composition seems to reflect all aspects of the riparian zone soil system. Predictive model forms were linear. Attempts to predict minimum values for Ca and alkalinity also were less satisfactory. This probably is due to variations in hydrological response times to individual precipitation events across the catchment. PMID:21051075

  14. Wave transformation and shoreline water level on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beetham, Edward; Kench, Paul S.; O'Callaghan, Joanne; Popinet, Stéphane

    2016-01-01

    The influence of sea swell (SS) waves, infragravity (IG) waves, and wave setup on maximum runup (Rmax) is investigated across different tidal stages on Fatato Island, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. Field results illustrate that SS waves are tidally modulated at the shoreline, with comparatively greater wave attenuation and setup occurring at low tide versus high tide. A shoreward increase in IG wave height is observed across the 100 m wide reef flat at all tidal elevations, with no tidal modulation of IG wave height at the reef flat or island shoreline. A 1-D shock-capturing Green-Naghdi solver is used to replicate the field deployment and analyze Rmax. Model outputs for SS wave height, IG wave height and setup at the shoreline match field results with model skill >0.96. Model outputs for Rmax are used to identify the temporal window when geomorphic activity can occur on the beach face. During periods of moderate swell energy, waves can impact the beach face at spring low tide, due to a combination of wave setup and strong IG wave activity. Under mean wave conditions, the combined influence of setup, IG waves and SS waves results in interaction with island sediment at midtide. At high tide, SS and IG waves directly impact the beach face. Overall, wave activity is present on the beach face for 71% of the study period, a significantly longer duration than is calculated using mean water level and topographic data.

  15. NUTRIENT LEVELS IN DRAINAGE WATER AFFECTED BY TURF MANAGEMENT

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Knowledge of the water and soil quality in urban watersheds is becoming increasingly important from a regulatory and environmental perspective. Recent evidence suggests turfgrass nutrients in runoff and subsurface flow pose potential risks to surface water quality. Research on water quality associat...

  16. REDUCING ARSENIC LEVELS IN DRINKING WATER: APPROACHES AND CONSIDERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The recently promulgated Arsenic Rule will require that many new drinking water systems treat their water to remove arsenic. It has been projected that the State of Ohio will have nearly 140 community and non-community non-transient water systems in violation of the Rule. This ...

  17. Estimating Impaired Waters on a County Level for Public Health Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Assessing the population-level impact of water quality on health can be difficult. Water quality data are measured at a watershed level and health data are organized at different levels of aggregation. To address this discrepancy and enable the consideration of water quality for ...

  18. Predicting bone remodeling around tissue- and bone-level dental implants used in reduced bone width.

    PubMed

    Eser, Atilim; Tonuk, Ergin; Akca, Kivanc; Dard, Michel M; Cehreli, Murat Cavit

    2013-09-01

    The objective of this study was to predict time-dependent bone remodeling around tissue- and bone-level dental implants used in patients with reduced bone width. The remodeling of bone around titanium tissue-level, and titanium and titanium-zirconium alloy bone-level implants was studied under 100 N oblique load for one month by implementing the Stanford theory into three-dimensional finite element models. Maximum principal stress, minimum principal stress, and strain energy density in peri-implant bone and displacement in x- and y- axes of the implant were evaluated. Maximum and minimum principal stresses around tissue-level implant were higher than bone-level implants and both bone-level implants experienced comparable stresses. Total strain energy density in bone around titanium implants slightly decreased during the first two weeks of loading followed by a recovery, and the titanium-zirconium implant showed minor changes in the axial plane. Total strain energy density changes in the loading and contralateral sides were higher in tissue-level implant than other implants in the cortical bone at the horizontal plane. The displacement values of the implants were almost constant over time. Tissue-level implants were associated with higher stresses than bone-level implants. The time-dependent biomechanical outcome of titanium-zirconium alloy bone-level implant was comparable to the titanium implant. PMID:23876712

  19. Individual changes in clozapine levels after smoking cessation: results and a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Meyer, J M

    2001-12-01

    Published reports document 20-40% lower mean serum clozapine concentrations in smokers compared with nonsmokers due to enzyme induction. Despite the increase in nonsmoking psychiatric facilities in the United States, previous studies have not tracked individual changes in serum clozapine levels after smoking cessation. Clozapine level changes were analyzed in 11 patients at Oregon State Hospital who were on stable clozapine doses, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide nonsmoking policy. A mean increase in clozapine levels of 71.9% (442.4 ng/ml +/- 598.8 ng/ml) occurred upon smoking cessation (p < .034) from a baseline level of 550.2 ng/ml (+/- 160.18 ng/ml). One serious adverse event, aspiration pneumonia, was associated with a nonsmoking serum clozapine level of 3066 ng/ml. Elimination of statistically extreme results generated a mean increase of 57.4 % or 284.1 ng/ml (+/- 105.2 ng/ml) for the remaining cases (p < .001) and permitted construction of a linear model which explains 80.9% of changes in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation (F = 34.9;p = .001): clozapine level as nonsmoker = 45.3 + 1.474 (clozapine level as smoker). These findings suggest that significant increases in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation may be predicted by use of a model. Those with high baseline levels should be monitored for serious adverse events. PMID:11763003

  20. The effects of sea-level rise on water quality in coastal floodplain sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Vanessa; Johnston, Scott; Burton, Edward; Bush, Richard; Sullivan, Leigh; Slavich, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Sea level has risen approximately 1.2 mm/year over the last 100 years (Hennessy et al. 2004) and is predicted to rise up to 80 cm by 2100 relative to 1990 sea levels (IPCC 2007). The number of extreme events related to sea level such as higher sea levels and increased inter-annual variability have also increased in frequency in the same time period (Hennessy et al. 2004). Globally, large areas of coastal and estuarine floodplains are underlain by sulfidic sediments and acid sulfate soils (ASS). These sediments frequently contain high concentrations of acidity and trace metals. A significant portion of the stored acidity occurs in the form of exchangeable and hydrolysable acidic metal cations such as Al and Fe. Watertables in these environments are often close to the surface and intercepted by relatively shallow drains. Due to their low elevation and locations, these floodplains are highly susceptible to pulses of saline water caused by saltwater intrusion, storm surge and rising sea levels. Construction of extensive drainage systems has further increased the susceptibility of the floodplain to seawater inundation by increasing connectivity to the estuarine channel. This risk is likely to increase in the future with predicted increases in sea level and extreme events due to climate change. This study uses both batch experiments to determine the effects of increasing ionic strength on exchange processes and trace metal desorption in oxidised floodplain sediments and sulfidic drain sediments, and intact soil cores to determine the surface water-porewater interactions over the short term following seawater inundation in coastal floodplain sediments. We found that that saline inundation of oxidised ASS floodplain sediments, even by relatively brackish water may cause rapid, shorter-term water quality changes and a pulse release of acidity due to desorption of acidic metal cations (Wong et al. 2010). We also found that trace metals can be mobilised from sulfidic estuarine drain sediments at near-neutral pH values without oxidation as a result of increased ionic strength and competitive desorption of metal cations (Wong et al. in press). Rapid seawater incursion in CASS drainage networks is likely to adversely impact drain water quality by increasing trace metal mobilization. Drainage networks on ASS floodplains are highly susceptible to rapid seawater inundation through storm surge, seasonal salt wedge migration, floodgate failure or floodgate opening. The experimental results show that the initial addition of marine derived salts will result in a decrease in pH and increase in trace metals, even at low salt concentrations such as that found in brackish waters in estuarine environments. References Hennessy K, Page C, McInnes K, Jones R, Bathols J, Collins D, Jones D (2004) Climate Change in New South Wales. In. CSIRO, Canberra. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. In: An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Wong VNL, Johnston SG, Burton ED, Bush RT, Sullivan LA, Slavich PG (2010) Seawater causes rapid trace metal mobilisation in coastal lowland acid sulfate soils: Implications of sea level rise for water quality. Geoderma 160(2): 252-263 Wong VNL, Johnston SG, Burton ED, Bush RT, Sullivan LA, Slavich PG (in press) Seawater-induced mobilization of trace metals from mackinawite-rich estuarine sediments. Water Research

  1. Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Niall; Lewis, Matthew; Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan

    2014-05-01

    Assessing the variability in extreme high water levels and the implications for coastal flood risk In this research we assess the temporal variability in the time-series of extreme water levels at 44 A- Class tide gauges around the UK. Extreme (> 99th percentile) storm tide events, sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 minutes between 1993 and 2012, were analysed at each site, and the variability in elevation relative to a given event storm tide peak was quantified. The magnitude of the variability in the time-series was found to be both spatially variable across the UK, and temporally variable relative to the time of the high water. Boundary water levels associated with a range of event magnitudes at case study locations around the UK were used to force two-dimensional hydrodynamic models to examine the importance of storm tide time-series uncertainty to flood risk predictions. The comparison of inundation extent, depth, and number of buildings affected demonstrated the importance of accurately defining the duration and magnitude of defence exceedance. For example, given a current 1 in 200 year event magnitude at Portsmouth (UK), the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the 5th percentile time-series relative to those forced with the 95th percentile time-series. The results clearly indicate that variability in the time-series of the storm tide can have considerable influence upon the duration and magnitude by which defences are exceeded, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the 5th and 95th percentile time-series defined in this research provide a tool for coastal flood modellers. Only defence overflow-induced inundation was examined in this research. However, it is expected that variability in storm tide time-series will also have important implications on other processes of interest to flood risk, including defence failure, wave-induced overtopping, and sediment transport in the nearshore region.

  2. A Predictive Coding Perspective on Beta Oscillations during Sentence-Level Language Comprehension.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Ashley G; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Schriefers, Herbert; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    Oscillatory neural dynamics have been steadily receiving more attention as a robust and temporally precise signature of network activity related to language processing. We have recently proposed that oscillatory dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges measured during sentence-level comprehension might be best explained from a predictive coding perspective. Under our proposal we related beta oscillations to both the maintenance/change of the neural network configuration responsible for the construction and representation of sentence-level meaning, and to top-down predictions about upcoming linguistic input based on that sentence-level meaning. Here we zoom in on these particular aspects of our proposal, and discuss both old and new supporting evidence. Finally, we present some preliminary magnetoencephalography data from an experiment comparing Dutch subject- and object-relative clauses that was specifically designed to test our predictive coding framework. Initial results support the first of the two suggested roles for beta oscillations in sentence-level language comprehension. PMID:26973500

  3. Uric Acid Levels Can Predict Metabolic Syndrome and Hypertension in Adolescents: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Hai-Lun; Pei, Dee; Lue, Ko-Huang; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The relationships between uric acid and chronic disease risk factors such as metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension have been studied in adults. However, whether these relationships exist in adolescents is unknown. We randomly selected 8,005 subjects who were between 10 to 15 years old at baseline. Measurements of uric acid were used to predict the future occurrence of metabolic syndrome, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes. In total, 5,748 adolescents were enrolled and followed for a median of 7.2 years. Using cutoff points of uric acid for males and females (7.3 and 6.2 mg/dl, respectively), a high level of uric acid was either the second or third best predictor for hypertension in both genders (hazard ratio: 2.920 for males, 5.222 for females; p<0.05). However, uric acid levels failed to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus, and only predicted metabolic syndrome in males (hazard ratio: 1.658; p<0.05). The same results were found in multivariate adjusted analysis. In conclusion, a high level of uric acid indicated a higher likelihood of developing hypertension in both genders and metabolic syndrome in males after 10 years of follow-up. However, uric acid levels did not affect the occurrence of type 2 diabetes in both genders. PMID:26618358

  4. A Predictive Coding Perspective on Beta Oscillations during Sentence-Level Language Comprehension

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Ashley G.; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Schriefers, Herbert; Bastiaansen, Marcel

    2016-01-01

    Oscillatory neural dynamics have been steadily receiving more attention as a robust and temporally precise signature of network activity related to language processing. We have recently proposed that oscillatory dynamics in the beta and gamma frequency ranges measured during sentence-level comprehension might be best explained from a predictive coding perspective. Under our proposal we related beta oscillations to both the maintenance/change of the neural network configuration responsible for the construction and representation of sentence-level meaning, and to top–down predictions about upcoming linguistic input based on that sentence-level meaning. Here we zoom in on these particular aspects of our proposal, and discuss both old and new supporting evidence. Finally, we present some preliminary magnetoencephalography data from an experiment comparing Dutch subject- and object-relative clauses that was specifically designed to test our predictive coding framework. Initial results support the first of the two suggested roles for beta oscillations in sentence-level language comprehension. PMID:26973500

  5. Basal salivary oxytocin level predicts extra- but not intra-personal dimensions of emotional intelligence.

    PubMed

    Koven, Nancy S; Max, Laura K

    2014-06-01

    A wealth of literature suggests that oxytocin is an important mediator of social cognition, but much of the research to date has relied on pharmaceutical administration methods that can raise oxytocin to artificially high levels. The present study builds upon previous work by examining whether basal oxytocin level predicts intra- and extra-personal (i.e., self- and other-focused) elements of emotional intelligence (EI), independent of shared variance with current mood. The sample included 71 healthy young adults (46 women). Assessment measures included the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test Version 2.0 (MSCEIT), the Trait Meta-Mood Scale, and the Profile of Mood States. Peripheral oxytocin levels were examined with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay from saliva after solid phase extraction. Oxytocin level was unrelated to TMMS scores but was positively associated with performance in the Experiential EI domain of the MSCEIT. However, total mood disturbance was positively related to MSCEIT scores. Hierarchical regression analysis indicated that oxytocin level added unique variance to the prediction of MSCEIT performance beyond that of current mood. These results confirm an association between endogenous levels of oxytocin in healthy adults and a subset of EI abilities, including extra-personal emotion recognition and the channeling of emotions to enhance social proficiency. PMID:24767616

  6. Predicting Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Target Genes by Level-2 Protein-Protein Interaction

    PubMed Central

    Fu, Yi; Cui, Qinghua; Kong, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is frequently lethal and has no effective pharmaceutical treatment, posing a great threat to human health. Previous bioinformatics studies of the mechanisms underlying AAA relied largely on the detection of direct protein-protein interactions (level-1 PPI) between the products of reported AAA-related genes. Thus, some proteins not suspected to be directly linked to previously reported genes of pivotal importance to AAA might have been missed. In this study, we constructed an indirect protein-protein interaction (level-2 PPI) network based on common interacting proteins encoded by known AAA-related genes and successfully predicted previously unreported AAA-related genes using this network. We used four methods to test and verify the performance of this level-2 PPI network: cross validation, human AAA mRNA chip array comparison, literature mining, and verification in a mouse CaPO4 AAA model. We confirmed that the new level-2 PPI network is superior to the original level-1 PPI network and proved that the top 100 candidate genes predicted by the level-2 PPI network shared similar GO functions and KEGG pathways compared with positive genes. PMID:26496478

  7. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system science approach. The system consists of the following elements: (1) the measurement of sea level relative to the land, (2) the measurement of the main components of the ice mass contribution to sea level (i.e. surface mass balance and ice dynamics), (3) the steric contribution to sea level, (4) the mechanisms determining the geographic distribution of sea level change; and (5) the integration of these observations in advanced numerical models for hindcast and projection of sea level change. This global observing system will be discussed in the presentation.

  8. Investigations on boron levels in drinking water sources in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Ren-ji; Xing, Xiao-ru; Zhou, Qun-fang; Jiang, Gui-bin; Wei, Fu-sheng

    2010-06-01

    To evaluate boron contamination of public drinking water in China, both dissolved and total boron contents in 98 public drinking water sources from 49 cities, 42 brands of bottled water samples from supermarkets in several cities, and 58 water samples from boron industrial area were measured by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Our experimental results showed that boron existed in public drinking water sources mainly in dissolved status with total concentrations ranging from 0.003 to 0.337 mg/L (mean = 0.046 mg/L). The mean boron concentrations in mineral and pure bottled water were 0.052 and 0.028 mg/L, respectively. The results obtained in this work showed that there was no health risk on view of boron in public drinking water sources and bottled water. In boron industrial area, boron concentrations in surface water and ground water were 1.28 mg/L (range = 0.007-3.8 mg/L) and 18.3 mg/L (range = 0.015-140 mg/L), respectively, which indicated that boron industry caused boron pollution in local water system. PMID:19444639

  9. Growth and food consumption by tiger muskellunge: Effects of temperature and ration level on bioenergetic model predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chipps, S.R.; Einfalt, L.M.; Wahl, David H.

    2000-01-01

    We measured growth of age-0 tiger muskellunge as a function of ration size (25, 50, 75, and 100% C(max))and water temperature (7.5-25??C) and compared experimental results with those predicted from a bioenergetic model. Discrepancies between actual and predicted values varied appreciably with water temperature and growth rate. On average, model output overestimated winter consumption rates at 10 and 7.5??C by 113 to 328%, respectively, whereas model predictions in summer and autumn (20-25??C) were in better agreement with actual values (4 to 58%). We postulate that variation in model performance was related to seasonal changes in esocid metabolic rate, which were not accounted for in the bioenergetic model. Moreover, accuracy of model output varied with feeding and growth rate of tiger muskellunge. The model performed poorly for fish fed low rations compared with estimates based on fish fed ad libitum rations and was attributed, in part, to the influence of growth rate on the accuracy of bioenergetic predictions. Based on modeling simulations, we found that errors associated with bioenergetic parameters had more influence on model output when growth rate was low, which is consistent with our observations. In addition, reduced conversion efficiency at high ration levels may contribute to variable model performance, thereby implying that waste losses should be modeled as a function of ration size for esocids. Our findings support earlier field tests of the esocid bioenergetic model and indicate that food consumption is generally overestimated by the model, particularly in winter months and for fish exhibiting low feeding and growth rates.

  10. Can tritiated water-dilution space accurately predict total body water in chukar partridges

    SciTech Connect

    Crum, B.G.; Williams, J.B.; Nagy, K.A.

    1985-11-01

    Total body water (TBW) volumes determined from the dilution space of injected tritiated water have consistently overestimated actual water volumes (determined by desiccation to constant mass) in reptiles and mammals, but results for birds are controversial. We investigated potential errors in both the dilution method and the desiccation method in an attempt to resolve this controversy. Tritiated water dilution yielded an accurate measurement of water mass in vitro. However, in vivo, this method yielded a 4.6% overestimate of the amount of water (3.1% of live body mass) in chukar partridges, apparently largely because of loss of tritium from body water to sites of dissociable hydrogens on body solids. An additional source of overestimation (approximately 2% of body mass) was loss of tritium to the solids in blood samples during distillation of blood to obtain pure water for tritium analysis. Measuring tritium activity in plasma samples avoided this problem but required measurement of, and correction for, the dry matter content in plasma. Desiccation to constant mass by lyophilization or oven-drying also overestimated the amount of water actually in the bodies of chukar partridges by 1.4% of body mass, because these values included water adsorbed onto the outside of feathers. When desiccating defeathered carcasses, oven-drying at 70 degrees C yielded TBW values identical to those obtained from lyophilization, but TBW was overestimated (0.5% of body mass) by drying at 100 degrees C due to loss of organic substances as well as water.

  11. Plasma oxytocin levels predict social cue recognition in individuals with schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Strauss, Gregory P; Keller, William R; Koenig, James I; Gold, James M; Frost, Katherine H; Buchanan, Robert W

    2015-03-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  12. PLASMA OXYTOCIN LEVELS PREDICT SOCIAL CUE RECOGNITION IN INDIVIDUALS WITH SCHIZOPHRENIA

    PubMed Central

    Strauss, Gregory P.; Keller, William R.; Koenig, James I.; Gold, James M.; Frost, Katherine H.; Buchanan, Robert W.

    2015-01-01

    Lower endogenous levels of the neuropeptide oxytocin may be an important biological predictor of social cognition impairments in schizophrenia (SZ). Prior studies have demonstrated that lower-level social cognitive processes (e.g., facial affect perception) are significantly associated with reduced plasma oxytocin levels in SZ; however, it is unclear whether higher-level social cognition, which requires inferential processes and knowledge not directly presented in the stimulus, is associated with endogenous oxytocin. The current study explored the association between endogenous oxytocin levels and lower- and higher-level social cognition in 40 individuals diagnosed with SZ and 22 demographically matched healthy controls (CN). All participants received the Social Cue Recognition Test (SCRT), which presents participants with videotaped interpersonal vignettes and subsequent true/false questions related to concrete or abstract aspects of social interactions in the vignettes. Results indicated that SZ had significantly higher plasma oxytocin concentrations than CN. SZ and CN did not differ on SCRT hits, but SZ had more false positives and lower sensitivity scores than CN. Higher plasma oxytocin levels were associated with better sensitivity scores for abstract items in CN and fewer false positives for concrete items in individuals with SZ. Findings indicate that endogenous oxytocin levels predict accurate encoding of lower-level socially relevant information in SZ. PMID:25673435

  13. Ab initio Determination of Formation Energies and Charge Transfer Levels of Charged Ions in Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vatti, Anoop Kishore; Todorova, Mira; Neugebauer, Joerg

    The ability to describe the complex atomic and electronic structure of liquid water and hydrated ions on a microscopic level is a key requirement to understand and simulate electro-chemical and biological processes. Identifying theoretical concepts which enable us to achieve an accurate description in a computationally efficient way is thereby of central importance. Aiming to unravel the importance and influence of different contributions on the hydration energy of ions we perform extensive ab-initio molecular dynamics simulations for charged and neutral cations (Zn, Mg) and anions (Cl, Br, I) in water. The structural correlations and electronic properties of the studied ions are analysed and compared to experimental observations. Following an approach inspired by the defect chemistry in semiconductors and aligning the water band edges on an absolute scale allows us to benchmark the calculated formation energies, identify transition states and compare the results to experiment. Based on these results we discuss the performance of various DFT xc-functionals to predict charge transfer levels and photo-emission experiments.

  14. Water level effects on breaking wave setup for Pacific Island fringing reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, J. M.; Merrifield, M. A.; Ford, M.

    2014-02-01

    The effects of water level variations on breaking wave setup over fringing reefs are assessed using field measurements obtained at three study sites in the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Mariana Islands in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. At each site, reef flat setup varies over the tidal range with weaker setup at high tide and stronger setup at low tide for a given incident wave height. The observed water level dependence is interpreted in the context of radiation stress gradients specified by an idealized point break model generalized for nonnormally incident waves. The tidally varying setup is due in part to depth-limited wave heights on the reef flat, as anticipated from previous reef studies, but also to tidally dependent breaking on the reef face. The tidal dependence of the breaking is interpreted in the context of the point break model in terms of a tidally varying wave height to water depth ratio at breaking. Implications for predictions of wave-driven setup at reef-fringed island shorelines are discussed.

  15. Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean-atmosphere dynamical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miles, Elaine R.; Spillman, Claire M.; Church, John A.; McIntosh, Peter C.

    2014-10-01

    Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993-2010 and model reanalysis over 1981-2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981-2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.

  16. Improving Neural Network Prediction Accuracy for PM10 Individual Air Quality Index Pollution Levels

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Qi; Wu, Shengjun; Du, Yun; Xue, Huaiping; Xiao, Fei; Ban, Xuan; Li, Xiaodong

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Fugitive dust deriving from construction sites is a serious local source of particulate matter (PM) that leads to air pollution in cities undergoing rapid urbanization in China. In spite of this fact, no study has yet been published relating to prediction of high levels of PM with diameters <10 μm (PM10) as adjudicated by the Individual Air Quality Index (IAQI) on fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. To combat this problem, the Construction Influence Index (Ci) is introduced in this article to improve forecasting models based on three neural network models (multilayer perceptron, Elman, and support vector machine) in predicting daily PM10 IAQI one day in advance. To obtain acceptable forecasting accuracy, measured time series data were decomposed into wavelet representations and wavelet coefficients were predicted. Effectiveness of these forecasters were tested using a time series recorded between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011, at six monitoring stations situated within the urban area of the city of Wuhan, China. Experimental trials showed that the improved models provided low root mean square error values and mean absolute error values in comparison to the original models. In addition, these improved models resulted in higher values of coefficients of determination and AHPC (the accuracy rate of high PM10 IAQI caused by nearby construction activity) compared to the original models when predicting high PM10 IAQI levels attributable to fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. PMID:24381481

  17. Lithium dose prediction based on 24 hours single dose levels: a prospective evaluation.

    PubMed

    Gervasoni, N; Zona-Favre, M-P; Osiek, Ch; Roth, L; Bondolfi, G; Bertschy, G

    2003-12-01

    The authors present the results of the utilization of a pharmacokinetic prediction test for lithium posology. Based on a single point (plasma lithium determination 24 h after a single dose) such a test aims to adapt the posology as soon as the second day of treatment rather than after one week as clinicians must wait for a steady state to be achieved. Built on the previous work of Perry, the test targeted the plasma lithium level at 0.8 +/- 0.1 mmol l(-1). Thirty-one patients took part in the study. There were two drop-out cases and the results were available for 29 patients: among them, 51% had their plasma level in the targeted zone. Although there was no control group, the prediction test often allowed us to use a higher dose than the usual fixed dose whose amount is limited by the risk of overdosing for the slower metabolizers. PMID:14527832

  18. Epstein-Barr virus latency type and spontaneous reactivation predict lytic induction levels.

    PubMed

    Phan, An T; Fernandez, Samantha G; Somberg, Jessica J; Keck, Kristin M; Miranda, Jj L

    2016-05-20

    The human Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) evades the immune system by entering a transcriptionally latent phase in B cells. EBV in tumor cells expresses distinct patterns of genes referred to as latency types. Viruses in tumor cells also display varying levels of lytic transcription resulting from spontaneous reactivation out of latency. We measured this dynamic range of lytic transcription with RNA deep sequencing and observed no correlation with EBV latency types among genetically different viruses, but type I cell lines reveal more spontaneous reactivation than isogenic type III cultures. We further determined that latency type and spontaneous reactivation levels predict the relative amount of induced reactivation generated by cytotoxic chemotherapy drugs. Our work has potential implications for personalizing medicine against EBV-transformed malignancies. Identifying latency type or measuring spontaneous reactivation may provide predictive power in treatment contexts where viral production should be either avoided or coerced. PMID:27091426

  19. An Empirical Approach to Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Stream Water Chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, J. R.; Hawkins, C. P.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change may affect stream solute concentrations by three mechanisms: dilution associated with increased precipitation, evaporative concentration associated with increased temperature, and changes in solute inputs associated with changes in climate-driven weathering. We developed empirical models predicting base-flow water chemistry from watershed geology, soils, and climate for 1975 individual stream sites across the conterminous USA. We then predicted future solute concentrations (2065 and 2099) by applying down-scaled global climate model predictions to these models. The electrical conductivity model (EC, model R2 = 0.78) predicted mean increases in EC of 19 μS/cm by 2065 and 40 μS/cm by 2099. However predicted responses for individual streams ranged from a 43% decrease to a 4x increase. Streams with the greatest predicted decreases occurred in the southern Rocky Mountains and Mid-West, whereas southern California and Sierra Nevada streams showed the greatest increases. Generally, streams in dry areas underlain by non-calcareous rocks were predicted to be the most vulnerable to increases in EC associated with climate change. Predicted changes in other water chemistry parameters (e.g., Acid Neutralization Capacity (ANC), SO4, and Ca) were similar to EC, although the magnitude of ANC and SO4 change was greater. Predicted changes in ANC and SO4 are in general agreement with those changes already observed in seven locations with long term records.

  20. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, W. J.

    2014-05-01

    Wim J. de Lange, Geert F. Prinsen, Jacco H. Hoogewoud, Ab A Veldhuizen, Joachim Hunink, Erik F.W. Ruijgh, Timo Kroon Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the rules for manmade re-direction of surface water, schematizations & parameters included in the model. This is carried out in workshops and in one-to-one expert meetings on regional models & the NHI. All results of NHI are presented on the internet and any expert may suggest improvements to the model. The final goal of the involvement of regional parties is the acceptation by decision impact receiving authorities. The presentation will give an overview of the experiences and results of the participation process both technically and in the national policy making context.

  1. Involving regional expertise in nationwide modeling for adequate prediction of climate change effects on different demands for fresh water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Lange, Wim; Prinsen, Geert.; Hoogewoud, Jacco; Veldhuizen, Ab; Ruijgh, Erik; Kroon, Timo

    2013-04-01

    Nationwide modeling aims to produce a balanced distribution of climate change effects (e.g. harm on crops) and possible compensation (e.g. volume fresh water) based on consistent calculation. The present work is based on the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI, www.nhi.nu), which is a national, integrated, hydrological model that simulates distribution, flow and storage of all water in the surface water and groundwater systems. The instrument is developed to assess the impact on water use on land-surface (sprinkling crops, drinking water) and in surface water (navigation, cooling). The regional expertise involved in the development of NHI come from all parties involved in the use, production and management of water, such as waterboards, drinking water supply companies, provinces, ngo's, and so on. Adequate prediction implies that the model computes changes in the order of magnitude that is relevant to the effects. In scenarios related to drought, adequate prediction applies to the water demand and the hydrological effects during average, dry, very dry and extremely dry periods. The NHI acts as a part of the so-called Deltamodel (www.deltamodel.nl), which aims to predict effects and compensating measures of climate change both on safety against flooding and on water shortage during drought. To assess the effects, a limited number of well-defined scenarios is used within the Deltamodel. The effects on demand of fresh water consist of an increase of the demand e.g. for surface water level control to prevent dike burst, for flushing salt in ditches, for sprinkling of crops, for preserving wet nature and so on. Many of the effects are dealt with? by regional and local parties. Therefore, these parties have large interest in the outcome of the scenario analyses. They are participating in the assessment of the NHI previous to the start of the analyses. Regional expertise is welcomed in the calibration phase of NHI. It aims to reduce uncertainties by improving the rules for manmade re-direction of surface water, schematizations & parameters included in the model. This is carried out in workshops and in one-to-one expert meetings on regional models & the NHI. All results of NHI are presented on the internet and any expert may suggest improvements to the model. The final goal of the involvement of regional parties is the acceptation by decision impact receiving authorities

  2. Prediction of the alveolar bone level after the extraction of maxillary anterior teeth with severe periodontitis

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Purpose After extraction, the alveolar bone tends to undergo atrophy in three-dimensions. The amount of alveolar bone loss in the horizontal dimension has been reported to be greater than the amount of bone loss in the vertical dimension, and is most pronounced in the buccal aspect. The aim of this study was to monitor the predictive alveolar bone level following the extraction of anterior teeth seriously involved with advanced chronic periodontitis. Methods This study included 25 patients with advanced chronic periodontitis, whose maxillary anterior teeth had been extracted due to extensive attachment loss more than one year before the study. Periapical radiographs were analyzed to assess the vertical level of alveolar bone surrounding the edentulous area. An imaginary line connecting the mesial and the distal ends of the alveolar crest facing the adjacent tooth was arbitrarily created. Several representative coordinates were established in the horizontal direction, and the vertical distance from the imaginary line to the alveolar crest was measured at each coordinate for each patient using image analysis software. Regression functions predicting the vertical level of the alveolar bone in the maxillary anterior edentulous area were identified for each patient. Results The regression functions demonstrated a tendency to converge to parabolic shapes. The predicted maximum distance between the imaginary line and the alveolar bone calculated using the regression function was 1.43±0.65 mm. No significant differences were found between the expected and actual maximum distances. Likewise, the predicted and actual maximum horizontal distances did not show any significant differences. The distance from the alveolar bone crest to the imaginary lines was not influenced by the mesio-distal spans of the edentulous area. Conclusions After extraction, the vertical level of the alveolar ridge increased to become closer to the reference line connecting the mesial and distal alveolar crests. PMID:26734492

  3. Tritium activity levels in environmental water samples from different origins.

    PubMed

    Palomo, M; Pealver, A; Aguilar, C; Borrull, F

    2007-09-01

    Tritium activity was determined in environmental waters from different areas of Catalonia, using a distillation procedure before liquid scintillation counting. The developed method was validated by analysing two samples from proficiency tests. In most of water samples (from rivers, rain, mineral bottled waters and tap waters) analysed, the activity values were lower or close to the minimum detectable activity (MDA) for our method which has a value of 0.6 Bq/l. However, the Ebro river samples had a mean activity around 3.6 +/- 0.6 Bq/l. The nuclear power station of Asc, which is located on the banks of this river, can be a source of tritium production and introduction into the environment, so a more exhaustive study of these waters was carried out. Tritium activities in this river were a long way above the normative limit in Spain for waters intended for human consumption, which is 100 Bq/l. PMID:17485217

  4. Effect of water level drawdown on decomposition in boreal peatlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Penttilä, Timo; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    Plant litter production and decomposition are key processes in element cycling in most ecosystems. In peatlands, there has been a long-term imbalance between litter production and decay caused by high water levels (WL) and consequent anoxia. This has resulted in peatlands being a significant sink of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, peatlands are experiencing both "natural" (global climate change) and anthropogenic (ditching) changes that threaten their ability to retain this ecosystem identity and function. Many of these alterations can be traced back to WL drawdown, which can cause increased aeration, higher acidity, falling temperatures, and a greater probability of drought. Such changes are also associated with an increasing decomposition rate, and therefore a greater amount of C released back to the atmosphere. Yet studies about how the overall C balance of peatlands will be affected have come up with conflicting conclusions, demonstrating that the C store could increase, decrease, or remain static. A factor that has been largely overlooked is the change in litter type composition following persistent WL drawdown. It is the aim of our study, then, to help to resolve this issue. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent WL drawdown on the decomposition of numerous types of above-ground and below-ground plant litters at three boreal peatland sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. We thus believe that enough permutations have been created to obtain a good assessment of how each factor, site nutrient level, WL regime, and litter type composition, influences decomposition. We used the litter bag method to measure the decomposition rates: placed measured amounts of plant litter, or cellulose strips as a control, into closed mesh bags, and installed the bags in the natural environment for decomposition for each litter type for varying amounts of time. Following litter bag recovery, the litter was cleaned of excess debris and analyzed for changes in mass, enzyme activity, mesofauna presence, and microbial community composition, among other things. The experiment has a run-time of ten years, the results from the first two years are presented in the poster.

  5. Water-level map of the Mississippi delta alluvium in northwestern Mississippi, April 1981

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darden, Daphne

    1981-01-01

    Water levels were measured in 454 wells in the alluvial sediments in northwestern Mississippi during the period April 13-24, 1981. Ground-water levels are higher after winter and spring rains and lower after heavy agricultural and industrial pumping. Locally, water levels fluctuate as rivers and streams fluctuate. Because of the drought conditions in April 1981, most water wells had risen several feet. In some areas, however, water levels had not recovered from the relatively low levels measured in September 1980. (USGS)

  6. Predicting sub-grid variability of soil water content from basic soil information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qu, Wei; Bogena, Heye; Huisman, Johan Alexander; Vanderborght, Jan; Schuh, Max; Priesack, Eckart; Vereecken, Harry

    2015-04-01

    Knowledge of unresolved soil water content variability within model grid cells (i.e. sub-grid variability) is important for accurate predictions of land-surface energy and hydrologic fluxes. Here, we derived a closed-form expression to describe how soil water content variability depends on mean soil water content using stochastic analysis of 1D unsaturated gravitational flow based on the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) model. A sensitivity analysis of this closed-form expression showed that the n parameter strongly influenced both the shape and magnitude of the maximum of this relationship. In a next step, the closed-form expression was used to predict soil water content variability for eight datasets with varying soil texture using VGM parameters obtained from pedotransfer functions that rely on readily available soil information. Generally, there was good agreement between observed and predicted soil water content variability despite the obvious simplifications that were used to derive the closed-form expression (e.g. gravity flow in dry soils). A simplified closed-form expression that neglected the effect of pressure head fluctuations showed that the good performance in the dry soil range is related to the dominant role of the variability in MVG parameters determining water retention as compared to the effect of water flow. Furthermore, the novel closed-form expression was successfully used to inversely estimate the variability of hydraulic properties from observed data on soil water content variability from several test sites in Germany, China and Australia.

  7. Modelling and Predicting Sound Level Around Selected Sections of Motorway A2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orczyk, Małgorzata; Tomaszewski, Franciszek

    2011-06-01

    This article presents potential of modelling and predicting noise level around the section of motorway A2 Komorniki - Krzesiny. The models were worked out on the basis of sound levels registered in three stages of research connected with phases of utilization of this motorway (measurement of acoustic background without traffic, measurements after opening section Komorniki - Krzesiny and noise measurement after opening section Nowy Tomyśl - Konin). The models were verified on the basis of actual number of vehicles which passed by section Komorniki - Krzesiny on random day and at random hour.

  8. Borehole sounding device with sealed depth and water level sensors

    DOEpatents

    Skalski, Joseph C.; Henke, Michael D.

    2005-08-02

    A borehole device having proximal and distal ends comprises an enclosure at the proximal end for accepting an aircraft cable containing a plurality of insulated conductors from a remote position. A water sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the enclosure and contains means for detecting water, and sending a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating water has been detected. A bottom sensing enclosure is sealingly attached to the water sensing enclosure for determining when the borehole device encounters borehole bottom and sends a signal on the cable to the remote position indicating that borehole bottom has been encountered.

  9. Exploratory multivariate modeling and prediction of the physico-chemical properties of surface water and groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayoko, Godwin A.; Singh, Kirpal; Balerea, Steven; Kokot, Serge

    2007-03-01

    SummaryPhysico-chemical properties of surface water and groundwater samples from some developing countries have been subjected to multivariate analyses by the non-parametric multi-criteria decision-making methods, PROMETHEE and GAIA. Complete ranking information necessary to select one source of water in preference to all others was obtained, and this enabled relationships between the physico-chemical properties and water quality to be assessed. Thus, the ranking of the quality of the water bodies was found to be strongly dependent on the total dissolved solid, phosphate, sulfate, ammonia-nitrogen, calcium, iron, chloride, magnesium, zinc, nitrate and fluoride contents of the waters. However, potassium, manganese and zinc composition showed the least influence in differentiating the water bodies. To model and predict the water quality influencing parameters, partial least squares analyses were carried out on a matrix made up of the results of water quality assessment studies carried out in Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Egypt, Thailand and India/Pakistan. The results showed that the total dissolved solid, calcium, sulfate, sodium and chloride contents can be used to predict a wide range of physico-chemical characteristics of water. The potential implications of these observations on the financial and opportunity costs associated with elaborate water quality monitoring are discussed.

  10. Lake Storage Measurements For Water Resources Management: Combining Remotely Sensed Water Levels and Surface Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Presently operating satellite-based radar altimeters have the ability to monitor variations in surface water height for large lakes and reservoirs, and future sensors will expand observational capabilities to many smaller water bodies. Such remote sensing provides objective, independent information where in situ data are lacking or access is restricted. A USDA/NASA (http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/) program is performing operational altimetric monitoring of the largest lakes and reservoirs around the world using data from the NASA/CNES, NRL, and ESA missions. Public lake-level products from the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM) are a combination of archived and near real time information. The USDA/FAS utilizes the products for assessing international irrigation potential and for crop production estimates; other end-users study climate trends, observe anthropogenic effects, and/or are are involved in other water resources management and regional water security issues. At the same time, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/), its NASA GSFC partners (http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/floodmap/home.html), and associated MODIS data and automated processing algorithms are providing public access to a growing GIS record of the Earth's changing surface water extent, including changes related to floods and droughts. The Observatory's web site also provide both archival and near real time information, and is based mainly on the highest spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS bands. Therefore, it is now possible to provide on an international basis reservoir and lake storage change measurements entirely from remote sensing, on a frequently updating basis. The volume change values are based on standard numerical procedures used for many decades for analysis of coeval lake area and height data. We provide first results of this combination, including prototype displays for public access and data retrieval of water storage volume changes. Ground-based data can, in some cases, test the remote sensing accuracy and precision. Data accuracy requirements vary for different applications: reservoir management for flood control, agriculture, or power generation may need more accurate and timely information than (for example) regional assessments of water and food security issues. Thus, the long-term goal for the hydrological sciences community should be to efficiently mesh both types of information and with as extensive geographic coverage as possible.

  11. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2002--Volume 2: Continuous ground-water-level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Leeth, David C.; Peck, Michael F.

    2002-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2002 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2002, including: discharge records of 154 gaging stations; stage for 165 gaging stations; precipitation for 105 gaging stations; information for 20 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 27 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 72 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 50 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2002, including continuous water-level records of 155 ground-water wells and periodic records at 132 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia.

  12. Modeling Tidal Wetland Resiliency in the Face of Predicted Accelerated Sea-Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schile, L. M.; Callaway, J.; Morris, J. T.; Kelly, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tidal wetland ecosystems are dynamic coastal habitats that, in California, often occur at the complex nexus of aquatic environments, diked and leveed baylands, and modified upland habitat. Because of their prime location and rich peat soil, many wetlands have been reduced, degraded, and/or destroyed, and yet their important role in carbon sequestration, nutrient and sediment filtering, and as habitat requires us to further examine their sustainability in light of predicted climate change. Predictions of climate change effects for the San Francisco Bay Estuary present a future with reduced summer freshwater input and increased sea levels. We examined the applicability and accuracy of the Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a zero-dimensional model that models organic and inorganic accretion rates under a given rate of sea-level rise. MEM was calibrated using data collected from salt and brackish marshes in the San Francisco Bay Estuary to examine wetland resiliency under a range of sea-level rise and suspended sediment concentration scenarios. At sea-level rise rates 100 cm/century and lower, wetlands remained vegetated. Once sea levels rise above 100 cm, marshes begin to lose ability to maintain elevation, and the presence of adjacent upland habitat becomes increasingly important for marsh migration. The negative effects of sea-level rise on elevations were compounded as suspended sediment concentrations decreased. Results from this study emphasize that the wetland landscape in the bay is threatened with rising sea levels, and there are a limited number of wetlands that will be able to migrate to higher ground as sea levels rise.

  13. Model analysis of effects on water levels at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by construction dewatering

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marie, James R.

    1976-01-01

    The computer models were developed to investigate possible hydrologic effects within the Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore caused by planned dewatering at the adjacent Bailly Nuclear Generator construction site. The model analysis indicated that the planned dewatering would cause a drawdown of about 4 ft under the westernmost pond of the Lakeshore and that this drawdown would cause the pond to go almost dry--less than 0.5 ft of water remaining in about 1 percent of the pond--under average conditions during the 18-month dewatering period. When water levels are below average, as during late July and early August 1974, the pond would go dry in about 5.5 months. However, the pond may not have to go completely dry to damage the ecosystem. If the National Park Service 's independent study determines the minimum pond level at which ecosystem damage would be minimized, the models developed in this study could be used to predict the hydrologic conditions necessary to maintain that level. (Woodard-USGS)

  14. Prediction of water quality index in constructed wetlands using support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Mohammadpour, Reza; Shaharuddin, Syafiq; Chang, Chun Kiat; Zakaria, Nor Azazi; Ab Ghani, Aminuddin; Chan, Ngai Weng

    2015-04-01

    Poor water quality is a serious problem in the world which threatens human health, ecosystems, and plant/animal life. Prediction of surface water quality is a main concern in water resource and environmental systems. In this research, the support vector machine and two methods of artificial neural networks (ANNs), namely feed forward back propagation (FFBP) and radial basis function (RBF), were used to predict the water quality index (WQI) in a free constructed wetland. Seventeen points of the wetland were monitored twice a month over a period of 14 months, and an extensive dataset was collected for 11 water quality variables. A detailed comparison of the overall performance showed that prediction of the support vector machine (SVM) model with coefficient of correlation (R(2))?=?0.9984 and mean absolute error (MAE)?=?0.0052 was either better or comparable with neural networks. This research highlights that the SVM and FFBP can be successfully employed for the prediction of water quality in a free surface constructed wetland environment. These methods simplify the calculation of the WQI and reduce substantial efforts and time by optimizing the computations. PMID:25408070

  15. Correlation between predicted and observed levels of airborne tritium at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory site boundary

    SciTech Connect

    Lindeken, C.L.; Silver, W.J.; Toy, A.J.; White, J.H.

    1980-02-19

    At the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, a computer code based on the Gaussian plume model is used to estimate radiation doses from routine or accidental release of airborne radioactive material. Routine releases of tritium have been used as a test of the overall uncertainty associated with these estimates. The ration of concentration to release rate at distances from the two principal release points to each of six site boundary sampling locations has been calcuated using local meteorological data. The concentration of airborne tritiated water vapor is continuously measured at the six sampling stations as part of the Laboratory's environmental monitoring program. Comparison of predicted with observed annual tritiated water concentrations in 1978 showed an average ratio of 2.6 with a range of from 0.97 to 5.8.

  16. Prediction of contaminant fate and transport in potable water systems using H2OFate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devarakonda, Venkat; Manickavasagam, Sivakumar; VanBlaricum, Vicki; Ginsberg, Mark

    2009-05-01

    BlazeTech has recently developed a software called H2OFate to predict the fate and transport of chemical and biological contaminants in water distribution systems. This software includes models for the reactions of these contaminants with residual disinfectant in bulk water and at the pipe wall, and their adhesion/reactions with the pipe walls. This software can be interfaced with sensors through SCADA systems to monitor water distribution networks for contamination events and activate countermeasures, as needed. This paper presents results from parametric calculations carried out using H2OFate for a simulated contaminant release into a sample water distribution network.

  17. Testing Data Collection Strategies for Improving Ground-Water Model Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiedeman, C. R.

    2004-12-01

    Calibrated numerical models are powerful tools for guiding collection of data to improve model predictions. In previous work, "value of improved information" (voii) and "observation-prediction" (opr) statistics were developed for identifying, respectively, the model parameters and potential system-state observations that are most important to the predictions of interest. These methods were then applied to a complex regional ground-water flow model to identify potential hydrogeologic and system-state data beneficial to the predictions. However, it is difficult to test the validity of the results for a field application because the true predictions are not known. Thus, to test whether data collection strategies identified by the statistics can actually improve the predictions, the voii and opr methods are applied to a synthetic ground-water flow problem with advective-transport predictions. First, observations generated from the true synthetic model are used to calibrate an incorrect model. Second, the voii and opr statistics are applied to the incorrect model, to identify the parameters and potential observations that are most important to the predictions. Third, several updated incorrect models are constructed and calibrated by improving the value or model feature associated with one or more parameters, or by adding one or more new observations to the calibration data set. The consequent increase in prediction accuracy is then assessed. Finally, the parameter improvements and additional observations that produce the greatest increases in prediction accuracy are compared to the parameters and observations that rank as most important by the voii and opr statistics. Preliminary results of testing the voii method show that for a majority of the model predictions, improving the values of the parameters identified as most important by the voii statistic actually causes the greatest increases in prediction accuracy.

  18. U.S. Geological Survey Water science strategy--observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science to the nation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evenson, Eric J.; Orndorff, Randall C.; Blome, Charles D.; Böhlke, John Karl; Hershberger, Paul K.; Langenheim, V.E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Morlock, Scott E.; Reeves, Howard W.; Verdin, James P.; Weyers, Holly S.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2013-01-01

    This report expands the Water Science Strategy that began with the USGS Science Strategy, “Facing Tomorrow’s Challenges—U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007–2017” (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007). This report looks at the relevant issues facing society and develops a strategy built around observing, understanding, predicting, and delivering water science for the next 5 to 10 years by building new capabilities, tools, and delivery systems to meet the Nation’s water-resource needs. This report begins by presenting the vision of water science for the USGS and the societal issues that are influenced by, and in turn influence, the water resources of our Nation. The essence of the Water Science Strategy is built on the concept of “water availability,” defined as spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality, as related to human and ecosystem needs, as affected by human and natural influences. The report also describes the core capabilities of the USGS in water science—the strengths, partnerships, and science integrity that the USGS has built over its 134-year history. Nine priority actions are presented in the report, which combine and elevate the numerous specific strategic actions listed throughout the report. Priority actions were developed as a means of providing the audience of this report with a list for focused attention, even if resources and time limit the ability of managers to address all of the strategic actions in the report.

  19. Effect of censoring trace-level water-quality data on trend-detection capability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilliom, R.J.; Hirsch, R.M.; Gilroy, E.J.

    1984-01-01

    Monte Carlo experiments were used to evaluate whether trace-level water-quality data that are routinely censored (not reported) contain valuable information for trend detection. Measurements are commonly censored if they fall below a level associated with some minimum acceptable level of reliability (detection limit). Trace-level organic data were simulated with best- and worst-case estimates of measurement uncertainty, various concentrations and degrees of linear trend, and different censoring rules. The resulting classes of data were subjected to a nonparametric statistical test for trend. For all classes of data evaluated, trends were most effectively detected in uncensored data as compared to censored data even when the data censored were highly unreliable. Thus, censoring data at any concentration level may eliminate valuable information. Whether or not valuable information for trend analysis is, in fact, eliminated by censoring of actual rather than simulated data depends on whether the analytical process is in statistical control and bias is predictable for a particular type of chemical analyses.

  20. Litter quality and its response to water level drawdown in boreal peatlands at plant species and community level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straková, Petra; Anttila, Jani; Spetz, Peter; Kitunen, Veikko; Tapanila, Tarja; Laiho, Raija

    2010-05-01

    There is increasing evidence that changes in the species composition and structure of plant communities induced by global change will have much more impact on plant-mediated carbon cycling than any phenotypic responses. These impacts are largely mediated by shifts in litter quality. There are few documentations of these changes so far, due to the relatively long time scale required for their direct observation. Here, we examine the changes in litter inputs induced by persistent water-level drawdown in boreal peatland sites. Peatlands contain a major proportion of the terrestrial carbon pool, and it is thus important to be able to predict their behaviour and role in the global C cycle under different global change factors. We studied the effects of short-term (ca. 4 years) and long-term (ca. 40 years) persistent water level (WL) drawdown on the quantity and chemical quality of above-ground plant litter inputs at three sites: bog, oligotrophic fen and mesotrophic fen. The parameters used to characterize litter quality included various extractable substances, cellulose, holocellulose, composition of hemicellulose (neutral sugars, uronic acids), lignin, CuO oxidation phenolic products, and concentrations of C, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium, magnesium, manganese and calcium. Four different groups of litter were clearly distinct based on their chemical quality: foliar litters, graminoids, mosses and woody litters. The pristine conditions were characterized by Sphagnum moss and graminoid litter. Following short-term WL drawdown, changes in the quality and quantity of litter inputs were small. Following long-term WL drawdown, total litter inputs dramatically increased, due to increased tree litter inputs, and the litter type composition greatly changed. These changes resulted in annual inputs of 1901-2010 kg•ha-1 C, 22-24 kg•ha-1 N, 1.5-2.2 kg•ha-1 P, 967-1235 kg•ha-1 lignin and lignin-like compounds and 254-300 kg•ha-1 water solubles after long-term WL drawdown, compared to respective values of 394-658, 5.6-9.3, 0.22-24.4, 161-293 and 44-81 for the pristine conditions. The direct effects of WL drawdown on litter quality were overruled by the indirect effects via changes in vegetation composition. The short-term (reflecting transient conditions) and long-term (reflecting longer-lasting situation of already adapted ecosystem) effects were very different. Our results imply that the long-term effects will strongly affect the soil properties and C cycle of peatlands.

  1. Parathyroid Hormone Levels May Predict Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in Morbidly Obese Patients

    PubMed Central

    Ghoghaei, Morteza; Taghdiri, Foad; Khajeh, Elias; Azmoudeh Ardalan, Farid; Sedaghat, Mojtaba; Hosseini Shirvani, Sepideh; Zarei, Shadi; Toolabi, Karamollah

    2015-01-01

    Background: Obesity as a worldwide health problem is associated with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Since severe liver injury may be present in asymptomatic obese patients and a definite diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis can only be made after an invasive procedure of liver biopsy, there is a need for noninvasive methods to predict the probability of NASH. Objectives: To investigate the role of vitamin D endocrine system in predicting the probability of presence of NASH in asymptomatic morbidly obese candidates of bariatric surgery. Patients and Methods: From December 09 to March 11, every patient undergoing bariatric surgery had a liver biopsy. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis was diagnosed using the Lee’s criteria, the baseline labs obtained and the association between laboratory data and presence of NASH assessed. Results: Forty-six patients (34 women, aged 36.5 ± 10.6 years) were analyzed. The mean levels of liver enzymes were significantly higher in the group with NASH (P value < 0.01). In an unadjusted logistic model, PTH was the only variable in vitamin D endocrine system which was significantly associated with NASH (odds ratio (OR): 1.04, 95%CI: 1.01 - 1.07). After adjustment for possible confounding factors, age (OR: 1.22, 95%CI: 1.00 - 1.50) and PTH (OR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01 - 1.16) were predictive factors for NASH (P value < 0.05). Conclusions: Elevated serum PTH level was the predictive factor for NASH in morbidly obese patients. Also, we reported elevated serum liver enzymes, high serum PTH levels and older age as predictors of NASH in patients seeking obesity surgical treatments. PMID:26300934

  2. Operational Internet-based System For Prediction of The Pollution In Coastal Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korotenko, K. A.

    An operational integrated system linking observing PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System, NOAA) and Coastal Ocean Forecasting System (COFS, NOAA) based on a coupled atmospheric-ocean model is developed for real-time diagnostic and forecasting transport of pollution in coastal waters. Both, sensor and modeled at- mosphere and ocean data are accessible via Internet and utilized by a numerical trans- port model based on the random walk particle technique. PORTS data: water level, current (ADCP), conductivity, temperature, and atmospheric data files contain most recent observation. These files are overwritten every 6 min. COFS data: 3-D ocean circulation model produces 24-hour simulations of temperature, salinity, surface el- evation, and currents for region off the U.S. East Coast from ~30 to 47 N and out to 50W. The model is driven at ocean surface boundary by heat, moisture, and mo- mentum fluxes provided by NCEPSs Eta-32 mesoscale atmospheric forecast model. Transport Model: the model was developed for transport of oil spills and divided into three major modules: input, trajectory and fate prediction algorithms, and output; the latter, in turn, is subdivided into the oil data output and environmental data output. The oil spill prediction procedure is split into two parts: (1) assimilation and utilization of the environmental data; and (2) oil spill modeling to predict the three-dimensional motion and fate of individual particles (oil droplets), the sum of which constitutes an oil spill. Among the processes affecting the fate of oil, advection, turbulent diffusion, evaporation, and decay are included; the decay is modeled as the combined effect of all the biochemical and physical mechanisms that decompose oil. Initially, oil con- sists of eight hydrocarbon fractions. The distribution of the number of particles within each fraction is also initially assigned and distributed randomly. Within each fraction, each droplet has randomly assigned its own half-life; the latter is chosen according to known empirical exponential laws. Numerical simulations are compared with histori- cal records of accidents has happened in the considered region.

  3. S100B Serum Levels Predict Treatment Response in Patients with Melancholic Depression

    PubMed Central

    Bergink, Veerle; Grosse, Laura; Alferink, Judith; Drexhage, Hemmo A.; Rothermundt, Matthias; Arolt, Volker; Birkenhäger, Tom K.

    2016-01-01

    Background: There is an ongoing search for biomarkers in psychiatry, for example, as diagnostic tools or predictors of treatment response. The neurotrophic factor S100 calcium binding protein B (S100B) has been discussed as a possible predictor of antidepressant response in patients with major depression, but also as a possible biomarker of an acute depressive state. The aim of the present study was to study the association of serum S100B levels with antidepressant treatment response and depression severity in melancholically depressed inpatients. Methods: After a wash-out period of 1 week, 40 inpatients with melancholic depression were treated with either venlafaxine or imipramine. S100B levels and Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAM-D) scores were assessed at baseline, after 7 weeks of treatment, and after 6 months. Results: Patients with high S100B levels at baseline showed a markedly better treatment response defined as relative reduction in HAM-D scores than those with low baseline S100B levels after 7 weeks (P=.002) and 6 months (P=.003). In linear regression models, S100B was a significant predictor for treatment response at both time points. It is of interest to note that nonresponders were detected with a predictive value of 85% and a false negative rate of 7.5%. S100B levels were not associated with depression severity and did not change with clinical improvement. Conclusions: Low S100B levels predict nonresponse to venlafaxine and imipramine with high precision. Future studies have to show which treatments are effective in patients with low levels of S100B so that this biomarker will help to reduce patients’ burden of nonresponding to frequently used antidepressants. PMID:26364276

  4. Predicting spatial kelp abundance in shallow coastal waters using the acoustic ground discrimination system RoxAnn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielck, F.; Bartsch, I.; Hass, H. C.; Wölfl, A.-C.; Bürk, D.; Betzler, C.

    2014-04-01

    Kelp forests represent a major habitat type in coastal waters worldwide and their structure and distribution is predicted to change due to global warming. Despite their ecological and economical importance, there is still a lack of reliable spatial information on their abundance and distribution. In recent years, various hydroacoustic mapping techniques for sublittoral environments evolved. However, in turbid coastal waters, such as off the island of Helgoland (Germany, North Sea), the kelp vegetation is present in shallow water depths normally excluded from hydroacoustic surveys. In this study, single beam survey data consisting of the two seafloor parameters roughness and hardness were obtained with RoxAnn from water depth between 2 and 18 m. Our primary aim was to reliably detect the kelp forest habitat with different densities and distinguish it from other vegetated zones. Five habitat classes were identified using underwater-video and were applied for classification of acoustic signatures. Subsequently, spatial prediction maps were produced via two classification approaches: Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and manual classification routine (MC). LDA was able to distinguish dense kelp forest from other habitats (i.e. mixed seaweed vegetation, sand, and barren bedrock), but no variances in kelp density. In contrast, MC also provided information on medium dense kelp distribution which is characterized by intermediate roughness and hardness values evoked by reduced kelp abundances. The prediction maps reach accordance levels of 62% (LDA) and 68% (MC). The presence of vegetation (kelp and mixed seaweed vegetation) was determined with higher prediction abilities of 75% (LDA) and 76% (MC). Since the different habitat classes reveal acoustic signatures that strongly overlap, the manual classification method was more appropriate for separating different kelp forest densities and low-lying vegetation. It became evident that the occurrence of kelp in this area is not simply linked to water depth. Moreover, this study shows that the two seafloor parameters collected with RoxAnn are suitable indicators for the discrimination of different densely vegetated seafloor habitats in shallow environments.

  5. Prediction of vegetation anomalies to improve food security and water management in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asoka, Akarsh; Mishra, Vimal

    2015-07-01

    Prediction of vegetation anomalies at regional scales is essential for management of food and water resources. Forecast of vegetation anomalies at 1-3 months lead time can help in decision making. Here we show that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along with other hydroclimatic variables (soil moisture and sea surface temperature) can be effectively used to predict vegetation anomalies in India. The spatiotemporal analysis of NDVI showed significant greening over the region during the period of 1982-2013. The root-zone soil moisture showed a positive correlation with NDVI, whereas the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index (Nino 3.4) is negatively correlated in most of the regions. We extended this relationship to develop a model to predict NDVI in 1 to 3 months lead time. The predicted vegetation anomalies compare well with observations, which can be effectively utilized in early warning and better planning in water resources and agricultural sectors in India.

  6. Regional Water Table (1998) and Ground-Water-Level Changes in the Mojave River, and the Morongo Ground-Water Basins, San Bernardino County, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Gregory A.; Pimentel, M. Isabel

    2000-01-01

    The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins are in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert in southern California. Ground water from these basins supplies a major part of the water requirements for the region. The rapid and continuous population growth in this area has resulted in ever-increasing demands on local ground-water resources. The continuing collection and interpretation of ground-water data helps local water districts, military bases, and private citizens gain a better understanding of the ground-water systems and, consequently, water availability. During 1998 the U.S. Geological Survey and other agencies made approximately 2,370 water-level measurements in the Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins. These data document recent conditions and changes in ground-water levels. A water-level contour map was drawn using data from 450 wells, providing coverage for most of both basins. Twenty-three hydrographs show long-term (as much as 70 years) water-level trends throughout the basins. To help show effects of late seasonal recharge along the Mojave River, 14 short-term (13 years) hydrographs were created. A water-level change map was compiled to enable comparison of 1996 and 1998 water levels. The Mojave River and the Morongo ground-water basins had little change in water levels between 1996 and 1998 - with the exception of the areas of the Yucca Valley affected by artificial recharge. Other water-level changes were localized and reflected pumping or measurements made before seasonal recharge. Three areas of perched ground water were identified: El Mirage Lake (dry), Adelanto, and Lucerne Valley.

  7. Preoperative serum CA125 levels predict the prognosis in hyperbilirubinemia patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tao; Zhang, Min-Gui; Xu, Hua-Xiang; Wang, Wen-Quan; Liu, Liang; Yu, Xian-Jun

    2015-05-01

    Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is widely used to predict the prognosis for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, hyperbilirubinemia and the CA19-9 nonsecretor phenotype restrict the usage of serum CA19-9 alone. The goal of this study was to confirm the prognostic role of preoperative serum CA125 in PDAC, especially in patients with jaundice.A total of 211 patients with resected PDAC were eligible for this retrospective study, and were classified into 2 groups based on serum bilirubin levels. The prognostic significance of all clinicopathologic factors was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses, and the performance of each factor in predicting overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was compared.High preoperative CA125, high TNM stage, and lymph node metastasis were independent risk predictors for OS and RFS in all patients and the 2 subgroups, but high CA19-9 was only significant when considering all patients and those with nonelevated bilirubin. Using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic analysis, better predictive performance for OS and RFS was observed for serum CA19-9 as compared to serum CA125 in these patients.High serum CA125 can independently predict poor prognosis. Importantly, in PDAC patients with hyperbilirubinemia, preoperative serum CA125 can predict the prognosis, whereas CA19-9 cannot. Preoperative CA19-9 had better predictive performance for survival than CA125, and the performance of CA19-9 did not decline between all patients and those with nonelevated bilirubin, but was significantly affected by hyperbilirubinemia. PMID:25984661

  8. Preoperative Serum CA125 Levels Predict the Prognosis in Hyperbilirubinemia Patients With Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Tao; Zhang, Min-Gui; Xu, Hua-Xiang; Wang, Wen-Quan; Liu, Liang; Yu, Xian-Jun

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is widely used to predict the prognosis for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, hyperbilirubinemia and the CA19-9 nonsecretor phenotype restrict the usage of serum CA19-9 alone. The goal of this study was to confirm the prognostic role of preoperative serum CA125 in PDAC, especially in patients with jaundice. A total of 211 patients with resected PDAC were eligible for this retrospective study, and were classified into 2 groups based on serum bilirubin levels. The prognostic significance of all clinicopathologic factors was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses, and the performance of each factor in predicting overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was compared. High preoperative CA125, high TNM stage, and lymph node metastasis were independent risk predictors for OS and RFS in all patients and the 2 subgroups, but high CA19-9 was only significant when considering all patients and those with nonelevated bilirubin. Using time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic analysis, better predictive performance for OS and RFS was observed for serum CA19-9 as compared to serum CA125 in these patients. High serum CA125 can independently predict poor prognosis. Importantly, in PDAC patients with hyperbilirubinemia, preoperative serum CA125 can predict the prognosis, whereas CA19-9 cannot. Preoperative CA19-9 had better predictive performance for survival than CA125, and the performance of CA19-9 did not decline between all patients and those with nonelevated bilirubin, but was significantly affected by hyperbilirubinemia. PMID:25984661

  9. A comparison of simulation models for predicting soil water dynamics in bare and vegetated lysimeters

    SciTech Connect

    Link, S.O.; Kickert, R.N.; Fayer, M.J.; Gee, G.W.

    1993-06-01

    This report describes the results of simulation models used to predict soil water storage dynamics at the Field Lysimeter Test Facility (FLTF) weighing lysimeters. The objectives of this research is to develop the capability to predict soil water storage dynamics with plants in support of water infiltration control studies for the Hanford Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program. It is important to gain confidence in one`s ability to simulate soil water dynamics over long time periods to assess the barrier`s ability to prevent drainage. Two models were compared for their ability to simulate soil water storage dynamics with and without plants in weighing lysimeters, the soil water infiltration and movement (SWIM) and the simulation of production and utilization of rangelands (SPUR-91) models. These models adequately simulated soil water storage dynamics for the weighing lysimeters. The range of root mean square error values for the two models was 7.0 to 19.8. This compares well with the range reported by Fayer et al. (1992) for the bare soil data sets of 8.1 to 22.1. Future research will test the predictive capability of these models for longer term lysimeter data sets and for historical data sets collected in various plant community types.

  10. Investigating Storm-Induced Total Water Levels on Complex Barred Beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, N.; Ruggiero, P.; Walstra, D.

    2013-12-01

    Water levels in coastal environments are not static, but rather vary from a range of factors including mean sea level, tides, storm surge, and wave runup. Cumulatively these superimposed factors determine the total water level (TWL), the extent of which has major implications for coastal erosion and inundation during periods of high energy. Storm-induced, super-elevated water levels pose a threat to low lying coastal regions, as clearly demonstrated by recent events such as Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. For this reason, the ability to accurately predict the TWL is crucial for both emergency managers and coastal planners. While some components of TWL are well understood (e.g., tides) there is still significant uncertainty in predicting runup, a process that can be a major contributor to instantaneous TWLs. Traditionally, empirical relationships derived from observational field data have been used to estimate runup, including wave setup and both incident and infragravity swash (Stockdon et al., 2006). While these formulations have shown skill in predicting the runup extent on natural beaches, these equations consider only the most basic contributing factors - namely the mean foreshore beach slope, the offshore wave height, and offshore wave period. Not included in these empirical estimates is the role of nearshore morphology on TWLs. However, it has long been recognized that nearshore sandbars act as natural barriers to coastal erosion during storm events by dissipating wave energy far from the beach face. Nonetheless, the influence of nearshore morphology on inner surf zone processes, including wave runup, is poorly understood. Recent pioneering studies (eg., Soldini et al., 2013 and Stephens et al., 2011) have explored the role of simple nearshore features (single Gaussian bars) on swash processes. Many locations in the world, however, are characterized by more complex morphologies such as multiple barred systems. Further, in many such places, including Columbia River Littoral Cell (USA), Duck, NC (USA), Hasaki (Japan), and the Netherlands, a net offshore bar migration (NOM) cycle has been observed whereby bars migrate seaward across the surf zone and decay offshore on interannual cycles. Depending on the stage of the cycle, the number and configuration of the bars may differ widely. For example in the Columbia River Littoral Cell there are typically 2 to 4 nearshore bars. In 1999, the outermost bar crest was located in a water depth of 6.5 m (relative to MLLW) while in 2009 it was located only in 3 m of water. Such large differences in nearshore morphology clearly influence wave breaking patterns and have the potential for influencing the corresponding wave runup as well. Here we apply a numerical, short-wave averaged yet long-wave resolving, non-linear hydrodynamic model (XBeach) to investigate the role that real world (non-synthetic), complex morphologies exert on TWLs. Model simulations under moderate to extreme wave forcing conditions are being used to develop relationships between offshore wave conditions, bar configuration, and runup extent. Additionally, we are exploring how, under the same wave conditions, a particular location may be more vulnerable to flooding simply based on the stage of the NOM cycle. Comparisons with the Stockdon et al. (2006) runup equation will be made to assess traditional empirical approaches relative to model predictions.

  11. A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

    2011-01-01

    During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

  12. Study on short term prediction using observed water quality from 8-day intervals in Nakdong river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, M.; Shon, T.; Joo, J.; Kim, J.; Shin, H.

    2012-12-01

    There are lots of accidents on water quality, like green algal blooms, occurring in Nakdong river which is one of the largest river in Korea. This is because of climate change around the world. It is essential to develop scientific and quantitative assessment methods. In this study, artificial neural network based on back propagation algorithm, which is simple and flexible method, was used for forecasting the water quality on the purpose of water resources management. Especially, as used observed water quality data from 8-day intervals in Nakdong river, it makes to increase the accuracy of water quality forecast over short term. This was established for predicting the water quality factors 1, 3, and 7 days ahead. The best model, as evaluated by its performance functions with RMSE and R2, was selected and applied to established models of BOD, DO, COD, and Chl-a using artificial neural network. The results showed that the models were suitable for 1 and 3 days forecasts in particular. This method is strong and convenient to predict water quality factors over the short term easily based on observed data. It is possible to overcome and manage problems related to the water resources. In the future, this will be a powerful method because it is basically based on observed water quality data.

  13. Short-term water level forecasts for the Laurentian Great Lakes using coupled atmosphere, land-surface and lake models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortin, Vincent; Mackay, Murray; Casas-Prat, Mercè; Seglenieks, Frank; Dyck, Sarah; Dupont, Frédéric; Roy, François; Smith, Gregory C.

    2015-04-01

    Over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Environment Canada operates a very successful short-term (48-h) environmental prediction system which includes the GEM atmospheric model, the ISBA land-surface model and the NEMO-CICE ice-ocean model. The positive impact of two-way coupling between the atmosphere and ocean is most clearly seen in winter, due to the presence of a dynamic ice cover and large heat fluxes over the ocean. This system is now being tested over the Laurentian Great Lakes, with the same objective of improving forecasts both for the atmosphere and the water bodies. In order to account for the significant impact of streamflow on the water level and water temperature of the Great Lakes, routing models for river flow and for connecting channels between lakes were added to the system. Offline tests demonstrated the capacity of the system to accurately simulate seasonal and multi-annual fluctuations in water levels and ice cover, as well as the need for consistent heat flux calculations in the atmospheric and ocean models. In this presentation, we focus on the skill of short-term water level forecasts. Over a few days, water levels of the Great Lakes mainly respond to the wind stress, but also change with surface pressure, precipitation, evaporation and river flow. The approach taken to account for each of these factors is described, and the skill of the resulting water level forecast is assessed over the fall of 2014 and the winter of 2015. It is shown that the system can accurately predict storm surges and seiches at the hourly time scale, with a skill that decreases slowly over 48-h, suggesting that skillful forecasts with longer lead times are feasible. A plan for increasing the lead time up to one month is presented.

  14. Molecular level water and solute transport in reverse osmosis membranes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lueptow, Richard M.; Shen, Meng; Keten, Sinan

    2015-11-01

    The water permeability and rejection characteristics of six solutes, methanol, ethanol, 2-propanol, urea, Na+, and Cl-, were studied for a polymeric reverse osmosis (RO) membrane using non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations. Results indicate that water flux increases with an increasing fraction of percolated free volume in the membrane polymer structure. Solute molecules display Brownian motion and hop from pore to pore as they pass through the membrane. The solute rejection depends on both the size of the solute molecule and the chemical interaction of the solute with water and the membrane. When the open spaces in the polymeric structure are such that solutes have to shed at least one water molecule from their solvation shell to pass through the membrane molecular structure, the water-solute pair interaction energy governs solute rejection. Organic solutes more easily shed water molecules than ions to more readily pass through the membrane. Hydrogen-bonding sites for molecules like urea also lead to a higher rejection. These findings underline the importance of the solute's solvation shell and solute-water-membrane chemistry in solute transport and rejection in RO membranes. Funded by the Institute for Sustainability and Energy at Northwestern with computing resources from XSEDE (NSF grant ACI-1053575).

  15. Options for water-level control in developed wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kelley, J. R., Jr.; Laubhan, M. K.; Reid, F. A.; Wortham, J. S.; Fredrickson, L. H.

    1993-01-01

    Wetland habitats in the United States currently are lost at a rate of 260,000 acres/year (105,218 ha/year). Consequently, water birds concentrate in fewer and smaller areas. Such concentrations may deplete food supplies and influence behavior, physiology, and survival. Continued losses increase the importance of sound management of the remaining wetlands because water birds depend on them. Human activities modified the natural hydrology of most remaining wetlands in the conterminous United States, and such hydrologic alterations frequently reduce wetland productivity. The restoration of original wetland functions and productivity often requires the development of water distribution and discharge systems to emulate natural hydrologic regimes. Construction of levees and correct placement of control structures and water-delivery and water-discharge systems are necessary to (1) create soil and water conditions for the germination of desirable plants, (2) control nuisance vegetation, (3) promote the production of invertebrates, and (4) make foods available for wildlife that depends of wetlands (Leaflets 13.2.1 and 13.4.6). This paper provides basic guidelines for the design of wetlands that benefit wildlife. If biological considerations are not incorporated into such designs, the capability of managing wetlands for water birds is reduced and costs often are greater. Although we address the development of palustrine wetlands in migration and wintering areas, many of the discussed principles are applicable to the development of other wetland types and in other locations.

  16. Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Patterns Predict Consciousness Level and Recovery Outcome in Acquired Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xuehai; Zou, Qihong; Hu, Jin; Tang, Weijun; Mao, Ying; Gao, Liang; Zhu, Jianhong; Jin, Yi; Wu, Xin; Lu, Lu; Zhang, Yaojun; Zhang, Yao; Dai, Zhengjia; Gao, Jia-Hong; Weng, Xuchu; Northoff, Georg; Giacino, Joseph T.; He, Yong

    2015-01-01

    For accurate diagnosis and prognostic prediction of acquired brain injury (ABI), it is crucial to understand the neurobiological mechanisms underlying loss of consciousness. However, there is no consensus on which regions and networks act as biomarkers for consciousness level and recovery outcome in ABI. Using resting-state fMRI, we assessed intrinsic functional connectivity strength (FCS) of whole-brain networks in a large sample of 99 ABI patients with varying degrees of consciousness loss (including fully preserved consciousness state, minimally conscious state, unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state, and coma) and 34 healthy control subjects. Consciousness level was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Scale and Coma Recovery Scale-Revised on the day of fMRI scanning; recovery outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale 3 months after the fMRI scanning. One-way ANOVA of FCS, Spearman correlation analyses between FCS and the consciousness level and recovery outcome, and FCS-based multivariate pattern analysis were performed. We found decreased FCS with loss of consciousness primarily distributed in the posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus (PCC/PCU), medial prefrontal cortex, and lateral parietal cortex. The FCS values of these regions were significantly correlated with consciousness level and recovery outcome. Multivariate support vector machine discrimination analysis revealed that the FCS patterns predicted whether patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state and coma would regain consciousness with an accuracy of 81.25%, and the most discriminative region was the PCC/PCU. These findings suggest that intrinsic functional connectivity patterns of the human posteromedial cortex could serve as a potential indicator for consciousness level and recovery outcome in individuals with ABI. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Varying degrees of consciousness loss and recovery are commonly observed in acquired brain injury patients, yet the underlying neurobiological mechanisms remain elusive. Using a large sample of patients with varying degrees of consciousness loss, we demonstrate that intrinsic functional connectivity strength in many brain regions, especially in the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, significantly correlated with consciousness level and recovery outcome. We further demonstrate that the functional connectivity pattern of these regions can predict patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state and coma would regain consciousness with an accuracy of 81.25%. Our study thus provides potentially important biomarkers of acquired brain injury in clinical diagnosis, prediction of recovery outcome, and decision making for treatment strategies for patients with severe loss of consciousness. PMID:26377477

  17. Improving Drought Predictability for Application to Water Resources Management in Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernando, D. N.; Fu, R.; Scanlon, B. R.; Solis, R. S.; Mace, R.; Yin, L.; Bowerman, A. R.; Mioduszewski, J.

    2012-12-01

    The 2011 exceptional drought over Texas was unusual because of its rapid intensification over the late-spring/early-summer 2011. Combined reservoir storage across the state dropped by 40%, and more regionally, in less than one year. Such a rapid reduction in reservoir storage, in a system designed to cope with multi-year droughts, caught water managers by surprise. Improved predictability of drought intensification in the spring could help decision makers, tasked with water resources management, adopt suitable measures to both reduce evaporative loss from reservoirs and prepare contingency plans to cope with an impending reduction in water supply over the summer. We investigate factors that led to the spring intensification of the drought with the aim of improving drought predictability for Texas. La Niña conditions played an important role in the initiation of the drought in fall 2010. However, drought intensification and persistence through the spring and summer are not directly attributable to La Niña. Intensification of the drought in late-spring/early-summer is attributed to anomalously strong westerly winds at 850 hPa in April 2011, which caused a dramatic increase in convective inhibition that curtailed rainfall right at the start of the rainy season in Texas. Rainfall in spring 2011 was at 65% of normal. The high terrain to the west of Texas had abnormally high surface temperatures in March and April, with anomalies reaching 5K. Thermal advection due to increased westerly flow over a warmer-than normal terrain in the spring established a 500 hPa height anomaly (i.e. the mid-tropospheric high pressure system) in late-April 2011. The high pressure system at 500 hPa is a characteristic feature of heat waves and drought over Texas. It fuels the positive feedback between soil moisture and rainfall and contributes to the persistence of drought through the summer months. Back trajectory analysis confirms the prevalence of westerly flow in April and May in 2011 and in other extreme drought years (PDSI < -3), such as 1955/56, 1963 and 2006. Back trajectories also indicate that the persistence of the 500 hPa height anomaly through the summer is partially explained by subsidence-induced warming. The anomalous strengthening of the zonal winds at 850 hPa is a characteristic feature in the 12 severe-to-extreme droughts experienced over Texas since 1895 that had persistent negative rainfall anomalies from winter through summer. Results suggest that February SST anomalies in the central Pacific, specified by the NINO4 index, is an important driver of the low level westerly wind anomalies in April over Texas.

  18. Options for future effective water management in Lombok: A multi-level nested framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sjah, Taslim; Baldwin, Claudia

    2014-11-01

    Previous research on water use in Lombok identified reduced water available in springs and limits on seasonal water availability. It foreshadowed increasing competition for water resources in critical areas of Lombok. This study examines preliminary information on local social-institutional arrangements for water allocation in the context of Ostrom's rules for self-governing institutions. We identify robust customary mechanisms for decision-making about water sharing and rules at a local level and suggest areas of further investigation for strengthening multi-level networked and nested frameworks, in collaboration with higher levels of government.

  19. Predicting visual fixations on video based on low-level visual features.

    PubMed

    Le Meur, Olivier; Le Callet, Patrick; Barba, Dominique

    2007-09-01

    To what extent can a computational model of the bottom-up visual attention predict what an observer is looking at? What is the contribution of the low-level visual features in the attention deployment? To answer these questions, a new spatio-temporal computational model is proposed. This model incorporates several visual features; therefore, a fusion algorithm is required to combine the different saliency maps (achromatic, chromatic and temporal). To quantitatively assess the model performances, eye movements were recorded while naive observers viewed natural dynamic scenes. Four completing metrics have been used. In addition, predictions from the proposed model are compared to the predictions from a state of the art model [Itti's model (Itti, L., Koch, C., & Niebur, E. (1998). A model of saliency-based visual attention for rapid scene analysis. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 20(11), 1254-1259)] and from three non-biologically plausible models (uniform, flicker and centered models). Regardless of the metric used, the proposed model shows significant improvement over the selected benchmarking models (except the centered model). Conclusions are drawn regarding both the influence of low-level visual features over time and the central bias in an eye tracking experiment. PMID:17688904

  20. Ferritin levels in the cerebrospinal fluid predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes and are regulated by APOE

    PubMed Central

    Ayton, Scott; Faux, Noel G.; Bush, Ashley I.; Weiner, Michael W.; Aisen, Paul; Petersen, Ronald; Jack Jr., Clifford R.; Jagust, William; Trojanowki, John Q.; Toga, Arthur W.; Beckett, Laurel; Green, Robert C.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Morris, John; Shaw, Leslie M.; Khachaturian, Zaven; Sorensen, Greg; Kuller, Lew; Raichle, Marc; Paul, Steven; Davies, Peter; Fillit, Howard; Hefti, Franz; Holtzman, Davie; Marcel Mesulam, M.; Potter, William; Snyder, Peter; Schwartz, Adam; Montine, Tom; Thomas, Ronald G.; Donohue, Michael; Walter, Sarah; Gessert, Devon; Sather, Tamie; Jiminez, Gus; Harvey, Danielle; Bernstein, Matthew; Fox, Nick; Thompson, Paul; Schuff, Norbert; Borowski, Bret; Gunter, Jeff; Senjem, Matt; Vemuri, Prashanthi; Jones, David; Kantarci, Kejal; Ward, Chad; Koeppe, Robert A.; Foster, Norm; Reiman, Eric M.; Chen, Kewei; Mathis, Chet; Landau, Susan; Cairns, Nigel J.; Householder, Erin; Taylor-Reinwald, Lisa; Lee, Virginia; Korecka, Magdalena; Figurski, Michal; Crawford, Karen; Neu, Scott; Foroud, Tatiana M.; Potkin, Steven; Shen, Li; Faber, Kelley; Kim, Sungeun; Nho, Kwangsik; Thal, Leon; Buckholtz, Neil; Albert, Marylyn; Frank, Richard; Hsiao, John; Kaye, Jeffrey; Quinn, Joseph; Lind, Betty; Carter, Raina; Dolen, Sara; Schneider, Lon S.; Pawluczyk, Sonia; Beccera, Mauricio; Teodoro, Liberty; Spann, Bryan M.; Brewer, James; Vanderswag, Helen; Fleisher, Adam; Heidebrink, Judith L.; Lord, Joanne L.; Mason, Sara S.; Albers, Colleen S.; Knopman, David; Johnson, Kris; Doody, Rachelle S.; Villanueva-Meyer, Javier; Chowdhury, Munir; Rountree, Susan; Dang, Mimi; Stern, Yaakov; Honig, Lawrence S.; Bell, Karen L.; Ances, Beau; Carroll, Maria; Leon, Sue; Mintun, Mark A.; Schneider, Stacy; Oliver, Angela; Marson, Daniel; Griffith, Randall; Clark, David; Geldmacher, David; Brockington, John; Roberson, Erik; Grossman, Hillel; Mitsis, Effie; deToledo-Morrell, Leyla; Shah, Raj C.; Duara, Ranjan; Varon, Daniel; Greig, Maria T.; Roberts, Peggy; Albert, Marilyn; Onyike, Chiadi; D'Agostino II, Daniel; Kielb, Stephanie; Galvin, James E.; Cerbone, Brittany; Michel, Christina A.; Rusinek, Henry; de Leon, Mony J; Glodzik, Lidia; De Santi, Susan; Murali Doraiswamy, P.; Petrella, Jeffrey R.; Wong, Terence Z.; Arnold, Steven E.; Karlawish, Jason H.; Wolk, David; Smith, Charles D.; Jicha, Greg; Hardy, Peter; Sinha, Partha; Oates, Elizabeth; Conrad, Gary; Lopez, Oscar L.; Oakley, MaryAnn; Simpson, Donna M.; Porsteinsson, Anton P.; Goldstein, Bonnie S.; Martin, Kim; Makino, Kelly M.; Saleem Ismail, M.; Brand, Connie; Mulnard, Ruth A.; Thai, Gaby; Mc-Adams-Ortiz, Catherine; Womack, Kyle; Mathews, Dana; Quiceno, Mary; Diaz-Arrastia, Ramon; King, Richard; Weiner, Myron; Martin-Cook, Kristen; DeVous, Michael; Levey, Allan I.; Lah, James J.; Cellar, Janet S.; Burns, Jeffrey M.; Anderson, Heather S.; Swerdlow, Russell H.; Apostolova, Liana; Tingus, Kathleen; Woo, Ellen; Silverman, Daniel H.S.; Lu, Po H.; Bartzokis, George; Graff-Radford, Neill R; Parfitt, Francine; Kendall, Tracy; Johnson, Heather; Farlow, Martin R.; Hake, Ann Marie; Matthews, Brandy R.; Herring, Scott; Hunt, Cynthia; van Dyck, Christopher H.; Carson, Richard E.; MacAvoy, Martha G.; Chertkow, Howard; Bergman, Howard; Hosein, Chris; Black, Sandra; Stefanovic, Bojana; Caldwell, Curtis; Robin Hsiung, Ging-Yuek; Feldman, Howard; Mudge, Benita; Assaly, Michele; Kertesz, Andrew; Rogers, John; Bernick, Charles; Munic, Donna; Kerwin, Diana; Mesulam, Marek-Marsel; Lipowski, Kristine; Wu, Chuang-Kuo; Johnson, Nancy; Sadowsky, Carl; Martinez, Walter; Villena, Teresa; Scott Turner, Raymond; Johnson, Kathleen; Reynolds, Brigid; Sperling, Reisa A.; Johnson, Keith A.; Marshall, Gad; Frey, Meghan; Lane, Barton; Rosen, Allyson; Tinklenberg, Jared; Sabbagh, Marwan N.; Belden, Christine M.; Jacobson, Sandra A.; Sirrel, Sherye A.; Kowall, Neil; Killiany, Ronald; Budson, Andrew E.; Norbash, Alexander; Johnson, Patricia Lynn; Allard, Joanne; Lerner, Alan; Ogrocki, Paula; Hudson, Leon; Fletcher, Evan; Carmichael, Owen; Olichney, John; DeCarli, Charles; Kittur, Smita; Borrie, Michael; Lee, T-Y; Bartha, Rob; Johnson, Sterling; Asthana, Sanjay; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Potkin, Steven G.; Preda, Adrian; Nguyen, Dana; Tariot, Pierre; Reeder, Stephanie; Bates, Vernice; Capote, Horacio; Rainka, Michelle; Scharre, Douglas W.; Kataki, Maria; Adeli, Anahita; Zimmerman, Earl A.; Celmins, Dzintra; Brown, Alice D.; Pearlson, Godfrey D.; Blank, Karen; Anderson, Karen; Santulli, Robert B.; Kitzmiller, Tamar J.; Schwartz, Eben S.; Sink, Kaycee M.; Williamson, Jeff D.; Garg, Pradeep; Watkins, Franklin; Ott, Brian R.; Querfurth, Henry; Tremont, Geoffrey; Salloway, Stephen; Malloy, Paul; Correia, Stephen; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Mintzer, Jacobo; Spicer, Kenneth; Bachman, David; Finger, Elizabether; Pasternak, Stephen; Rachinsky, Irina; Drost, Dick; Pomara, Nunzio; Hernando, Raymundo; Sarrael, Antero; Schultz, Susan K.; Boles Ponto, Laura L.; Shim, Hyungsub; Elizabeth Smith, Karen; Relkin, Norman; Chaing, Gloria; Raudin, Lisa; Smith, Amanda; Fargher, Kristin; Ashok Raj, Balebail; Neylan, Thomas; Grafman, Jordan; Davis, Melissa; Morrison, Rosemary; Hayes, Jacqueline; Finley, Shannon; Friedl, Karl; Fleischman, Debra; Arfanakis, Konstantinos; James, Olga; Massoglia, Dino; Jay Fruehling, J.; Harding, Sandra; Peskind, Elaine R.; Petrie, Eric C.; Li, Gail; Yesavage, Jerome A.; Taylor, Joy L.; Furst, Ansgar J.

    2015-01-01

    Brain iron elevation is implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis, but the impact of iron on disease outcomes has not been previously explored in a longitudinal study. Ferritin is the major iron storage protein of the body; by using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of ferritin as an index, we explored whether brain iron status impacts longitudinal outcomes in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. We show that baseline CSF ferritin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance over 7 years in 91 cognitively normal, 144 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 67 AD subjects, and predicted MCI conversion to AD. Ferritin was strongly associated with CSF apolipoprotein E levels and was elevated by the Alzheimer's risk allele, APOE-ɛ4. These findings reveal that elevated brain iron adversely impacts on AD progression, and introduce brain iron elevation as a possible mechanism for APOE-ɛ4 being the major genetic risk factor for AD. PMID:25988319

  1. Ferritin levels in the cerebrospinal fluid predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes and are regulated by APOE.

    PubMed

    Ayton, Scott; Faux, Noel G; Bush, Ashley I

    2015-01-01

    Brain iron elevation is implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis, but the impact of iron on disease outcomes has not been previously explored in a longitudinal study. Ferritin is the major iron storage protein of the body; by using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of ferritin as an index, we explored whether brain iron status impacts longitudinal outcomes in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. We show that baseline CSF ferritin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance over 7 years in 91 cognitively normal, 144 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 67 AD subjects, and predicted MCI conversion to AD. Ferritin was strongly associated with CSF apolipoprotein E levels and was elevated by the Alzheimer's risk allele, APOE-ɛ4. These findings reveal that elevated brain iron adversely impacts on AD progression, and introduce brain iron elevation as a possible mechanism for APOE-ɛ4 being the major genetic risk factor for AD. PMID:25988319

  2. Sources of Elevated Sodium Levels in Drinking Water...and Recommendations for Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calabrese, Edward J.; Tuthill, Robert W.

    1978-01-01

    Sodium enters drinking water by a variety of human activities and by natural means. Evidence suggests elevated levels of sodium in drinking water may adversely affect health. Action should be taken to reduce the level of human exposure to sodium in drinking water. (RE)

  3. Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-12-01

    This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

  4. The challenge of predicting karst water resources in a changing world (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, A.

    2013-12-01

    Karst regions represent a large part of global continental area providing drinking water to almost a quarter of the world population. Climate simulations predict a strong increase in temperature and a decrease of precipitation in many karst regions in the world (see figure below). Despite of this knowledge, there are only few studies that address the impact of climate or change on karst water resources. This presentation will provide an overview about different approaches for the simulation of karst water resources, comparing their data requirements and process representation, and elaborating reasons for their limited applicability. A set of case studies will be used to show the benefits of new modeling approaches that include hydrochemical observations, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to evaluate and improve the prediction of karst water resources. Furthermore, the impact of uncertain temperature and precipitation predictions of climate simulation models on the prediction of karst water resources will be elaborated by another example and alternative approaches will be discussed. The presentation will end with an outlook about the application of karst simulation models on larger scales where no discharge and groundwater measurements will be presented. Location of carbonate rock outcrops in Europe [Williams and Ford, Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 2006, modified] compared to expected mean change of temperature and precipitation in North America (a,b) and Europe (c,d) from 1961-1990 to 2081-2090, derived from 20 general circulation models [IPCC, 2007].

  5. Temporal and Spatial prediction of groundwater levels using Artificial Neural Networks, Fuzzy logic and Kriging interpolation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapoglou, Evdokia; Karatzas, George P.; Trichakis, Ioannis C.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with kriging interpolation method, in order to simulate the hydraulic head both spatially and temporally. Initially, ANNs are used for the temporal simulation of the hydraulic head change. The results of the most appropriate ANNs, determined through a fuzzy logic system, are used as an input for the kriging algorithm where the spatial simulation is conducted. The proposed algorithm is tested in an area located across Isar River in Bayern, Germany and covers an area of approximately 7800 km2. The available data extend to a time period from 1/11/2008 to 31/10/2012 (1460 days) and include the hydraulic head at 64 wells, temperature and rainfall at 7 weather stations and surface water elevation at 5 monitoring stations. One feedforward ANN was trained for each of the 64 wells, where hydraulic head data are available, using a backpropagation algorithm. The most appropriate input parameters for each wells' ANN are determined considering their proximity to the measuring station, as well as their statistical characteristics. For the rainfall, the data for two consecutive time lags for best correlated weather station, as well as a third and fourth input from the second best correlated weather station, are used as an input. The surface water monitoring stations with the three best correlations for each well are also used in every case. Finally, the temperature for the best correlated weather station is used. Two different architectures are considered and the one with the best results is used henceforward. The output of the ANNs corresponds to the hydraulic head change per time step. These predictions are used in the kriging interpolation algorithm. However, not all 64 simulated values should be used. The appropriate neighborhood for each prediction point is constructed based not only on the distance between known and prediction points, but also on the training and testing error of the ANN. Therefore, the neighborhood of each prediction point is the best available. Then, the appropriate variogram is determined, by fitting the experimental variogram to a theoretical variogram model. Three models are examined, the linear, the exponential and the power-law. Finally, the hydraulic head change is predicted for every grid cell and for every time step used. All the algorithms used were developed in Visual Basic .NET, while the visualization of the results was performed in MATLAB using the .NET COM Interoperability. The results are evaluated using leave one out cross-validation and various performance indicators. The best results were achieved by using ANNs with two hidden layers, consisting of 20 and 15 nodes respectively and by using power-law variogram with the fuzzy logic system.

  6. Predicting Impacts of Increased CO2 and Climate Change on the Water Cycle and Water Quality in the Semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang; Gallant, Alisa L.

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO3–N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO2, precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO2 concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO3–N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO3–N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin.

  7. Predicting impacts of increased CO₂ and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Gallant, Alisa L

    2012-07-15

    Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols from human activities continue to alter the climate and likely will have significant impacts on the terrestrial hydrological cycle and water quality, especially in arid and semiarid regions. We applied an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate impacts of increased atmospheric CO(2) concentration and potential climate change on the water cycle and nitrogen loads in the semiarid James River Basin (JRB) in the Midwestern United States. We assessed responses of water yield, soil water content, groundwater recharge, and nitrate nitrogen (NO(3)-N) load under hypothetical climate-sensitivity scenarios in terms of CO(2), precipitation, and air temperature. We extended our predictions of the dynamics of these hydrological variables into the mid-21st century with downscaled climate projections integrated across output from six General Circulation Models. Our simulation results compared against the baseline period 1980 to 2009 suggest the JRB hydrological system is highly responsive to rising levels of CO(2) concentration and potential climate change. Under our scenarios, substantial decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature by the mid-21st century could result in significant reduction in water yield, soil water content, and groundwater recharge. Our model also estimated decreased NO(3)-N load to streams, which could be beneficial, but a concomitant increase in NO(3)-N concentration due to a decrease in streamflow likely would degrade stream water and threaten aquatic ecosystems. These results highlight possible risks of drought, water supply shortage, and water quality degradation in this basin. PMID:22641243

  8. Analysis on the characteristics of parameters in groundwater table fluctuation model for predicting groundwater levels in Hancheon watershed, South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Nam Won; Kim, Youn Jung; Chung, Il-Moon; Lee, Jeongwoo

    2014-05-01

    A novel application of groundwater table fluctuation method is suggested to predict groundwater level by means of groundwater table variation due to recharge and discharge under unsteady condition. This model analyzes transient groundwater characteristics by using reaction factor related with groundwater flow and specific yield related with recharge. The groundwater level varies according to the characteristics and composite materials of aquifer. In this study, specific yield and reaction factor which are the major two hydrogeological parameters in the WTF(Water Table Fluctuation) method were estimated and analyzed their spatial characteristics. 8 groundwater level stations which have enough measuring period and high correlation with rainfall in the Hancheon watershed were used. The results showed that specific yield was randomly distributed and reaction factor showed inverse trend with altitude. If the enough data were collected, reaction factor according to altitude in ungauged points could be estimated by using these parameter characteristics. keywords: Key words : Groundwater level, parameters, reaction factor, specific yield Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Regional Innovative Technology Project 2B from KICTTEP.

  9. Water Resources Data, Georgia, 2001, Volume 2: Continuous ground-water level data, and periodic surface-water- and ground-water-quality data, Calendar Year 2001

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffin, Robert; Grams, Susan C.; Cressler, Alan M.; Leeth, David C.

    2001-01-01

    Water resources data for the 2001 water year for Georgia consists of records of stage, discharge, and water quality of streams; and the stage and contents of lakes and reservoirs published in two volumes in a digital format on a CD-ROM. Volume one of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during water year 2001, including: discharge records of 133 gaging stations; stage for 144 gaging stations; precipitation for 58 gaging stations; information for 19 lakes and reservoirs; continuous water-quality records for 17 stations; the annual peak stage and annual peak discharge for 76 crest-stage partial-record stations; and miscellaneous streamflow measurements at 27 stations, and miscellaneous water-quality data recorded by the NAWQA program in Georgia. Volume two of this report contains water resources data for Georgia collected during calendar year 2001, including continuous water-level records of 159 ground-water wells and periodic records at 138 water-quality stations. These data represent that part of the National Water Data System collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating State and Federal agencies in Georgia. Note: Historically, this report was published as a paper report. For the 1999 and subsequent water-year reports, the Water Resources Data for Georgia changed to a new, more informative and functional format on CD-ROM. The format is based on a geographic information system (GIS) user interface that allows the user to view map locations of the hydrologic monitoring stations and networks within respective river basins. To obtain a copy of the CD version of this report, you may call the U.S. Geological Survey office in Atlanta at (770) 903-9100, or send e-mail to request the publication. Please include your name and mailing address in your e-mail.

  10. Computational methodology to predict satellite system-level effects from impacts of untrackable space debris

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Welty, N.; Rudolph, M.; Schäfer, F.; Apeldoorn, J.; Janovsky, R.

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents a computational methodology to predict the satellite system-level effects resulting from impacts of untrackable space debris particles. This approach seeks to improve on traditional risk assessment practices by looking beyond the structural penetration of the satellite and predicting the physical damage to internal components and the associated functional impairment caused by untrackable debris impacts. The proposed method combines a debris flux model with the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert ballistic limit equation (BLE), which accounts for the inherent shielding of components positioned behind the spacecraft structure wall. Individual debris particle impact trajectories and component shadowing effects are considered and the failure probabilities of individual satellite components as a function of mission time are calculated. These results are correlated to expected functional impairment using a Boolean logic model of the system functional architecture considering the functional dependencies and redundancies within the system.

  11. Simplified combustion noise theory yielding a prediction of fluctuating pressure level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, R. G.

    1984-01-01

    The first order equations for the conservation of mass and momentum in differential form are combined for an ideal gas to yield a single second order partial differential equation in one dimension and time. Small perturbation analysis is applied. A Fourier transformation is performed that results in a second order, constant coefficient, nonhomogeneous equation. The driving function is taken to be the source of combustion noise. A simplified model describing the energy addition via the combustion process gives the required source information for substitution in the driving function. This enables the particular integral solution of the nonhomogeneous equation to be found. This solution multiplied by the acoustic pressure efficiency predicts the acoustic pressure spectrum measured in turbine engine combustors. The prediction was compared with the overall sound pressure levels measured in a CF6-50 turbofan engine combustor and found to be in excellent agreement.

  12. A method for predicting the noise levels of coannular jets with inverted velocity profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Russell, J. W.

    1979-01-01

    A coannular jet was equated with a single stream equivalent jet with the same mass flow, energy, and thrust. The acoustic characteristics of the coannular jet were then related to the acoustic characteristics of the single jet. Forward flight effects were included by incorporating a forward exponent, a Doppler amplification factor, and a Strouhal frequency shift. Model test data, including 48 static cases and 22 wind tunnel cases, were used to evaluate the prediction method. For the static cases and the low forward velocity wind tunnel cases, the spectral mean square pressure correlation coefficients were generally greater than 90 percent, and the spectral sound pressure level standard deviation were generally less than 3 decibels. The correlation coefficient and the standard deviation were not affected by changes in equivalent jet velocity. Limitations of the prediction method are also presented.

  13. Myeloperoxidase levels predicts angiographic severity of coronary artery disease in patients with chronic stable angina

    PubMed Central

    Baseri, Mehdi; Heidari, Ramin; Mahaki, Behzad; Hajizadeh, Yaghoub; Momenizadeh, Amir; Sadeghi, Masoumeh

    2014-01-01

    Background: Myeloperoxidase (MPO) has an important role in the both processes of inflammation and oxidative stress. It plays proatherogenic role via low-density lipoprotein oxidation, functional inactivation of the high-density lipoprotein and endothelial dysfunction, and seems to be involved in the atherogenesis of coronary arteries. This study designed to evaluate the association between the plasma MPO levels and angiographic severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with the stable CAD. Materials and Methods: Sixty-eight patients who had documented CAD with angiography and 66 subjects who had normal angiography were selected as case and the control groups for this study, respectively. Gensini scoring system was used for evaluation of severity of coronary artery stenosis. Plasma MPO and C-reactiveprotein (CRP) levels of both case and control groups were determined. Results: Plasma MPO levels and CRP levels were significantly higher in CAD patients (P < 0.001), and plasma levels of MPO and CRP were correlated with Genssini scores. Conclusions: Our findings indicated that the plasma MPO levels increase in patients with stable CAD and hence that, it can be used as adiagnostic factor to predict the coronary artery atherosclerosis severity in stable CAD patients; However, it needs further widespread investigations to achieve an accurate cut point. PMID:25161986

  14. Elevated pretreatment plasma D-dimer levels and platelet counts predict poor prognosis in pancreatic adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Peng; Zhu, Yuan; Liu, Luying

    2015-01-01

    This retrospective study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of the preoperative plasma D-dimer levels and platelet counts in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. A total of 168 consecutive locally advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients who underwent intensity modulated radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy were enrolled in this study. Plasma D-dimer levels were measured by a latex-enhanced immunoturbidimetric assay. Of the 168 patients enrolled, 106 patients were males and 62 patients were females. There was significant difference between plasma D-dimer levels and clinical responses (P=0.001). The 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year cumulative overall survival rates were 50.6%, 15.0%, and 4.9%, respectively. Plasma D-dimer levels (P<0.001) and platelet counts (P=0.010) were significantly related with overall survival in univariate analysis. The Cox proportional hazards regression indicated that plasma D-dimer levels (P=0.028), platelet counts (P=0.004), and treatment response (P<0.001) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Elevated pretreatment plasma D-dimer levels and platelet counts predict poor prognosis in pancreatic adenocarcinoma. PMID:26082650

  15. Water Wizards: School Program on Water Conservation for Third and Fourth Grade Levels.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts State Water Resources Authority, Boston.

    Water is precious. It is also easy to take for granted. Many people recognize that water is scarce in desert areas. but it is harder to realize that places like Massachusetts could face a shortage of pure drinking water. This manual provides teachers with curriculum resources to introduce concepts of water supply and water conservation to third…

  16. Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

    2014-12-01

    The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup,swash, and runup. Coastal engineering, 53(7), 573-588.

  17. ReactionPredictor: prediction of complex chemical reactions at the mechanistic level using machine learning.

    PubMed

    Kayala, Matthew A; Baldi, Pierre

    2012-10-22

    Proposing reasonable mechanisms and predicting the course of chemical reactions is important to the practice of organic chemistry. Approaches to reaction prediction have historically used obfuscating representations and manually encoded patterns or rules. Here we present ReactionPredictor, a machine learning approach to reaction prediction that models elementary, mechanistic reactions as interactions between approximate molecular orbitals (MOs). A training data set of productive reactions known to occur at reasonable rates and yields and verified by inclusion in the literature or textbooks is derived from an existing rule-based system and expanded upon with manual curation from graduate level textbooks. Using this training data set of complex polar, hypervalent, radical, and pericyclic reactions, a two-stage machine learning prediction framework is trained and validated. In the first stage, filtering models trained at the level of individual MOs are used to reduce the space of possible reactions to consider. In the second stage, ranking models over the filtered space of possible reactions are used to order the reactions such that the productive reactions are the top ranked. The resulting model, ReactionPredictor, perfectly ranks polar reactions 78.1% of the time and recovers all productive reactions 95.7% of the time when allowing for small numbers of errors. Pericyclic and radical reactions are perfectly ranked 85.8% and 77.0% of the time, respectively, rising to >93% recovery for both reaction types with a small number of allowed errors. Decisions about which of the polar, pericyclic, or radical reaction type ranking models to use can be made with >99% accuracy. Finally, for multistep reaction pathways, we implement the first mechanistic pathway predictor using constrained tree-search to discover a set of reasonable mechanistic steps from given reactants to given products. Webserver implementations of both the single step and pathway versions of ReactionPredictor are available via the chemoinformatics portal http://cdb.ics.uci.edu/. PMID:22978639

  18. B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Levels Predict Ventricular Arrhythmia Post Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation.

    PubMed

    Hellman, Yaron; Malik, Adnan S; Lin, Hongbo; Shen, Changyu; Wang, I-Wen; Wozniak, Thomas C; Hashmi, Zubair A; Pickrell, Jeanette; Jani, Milena; Caccamo, Marco A; Gradus-Pizlo, Irmina; Hadi, Azam

    2015-12-01

    B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels have been shown to predict ventricular arrhythmia (VA) and sudden death in patients with heart failure. We sought to determine whether BNP levels before left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation can predict VA post LVAD implantation in advanced heart failure