Sample records for zooplankton population model

  1. Interactions between Predation and Resources Shape Zooplankton Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P. Anders; Brönmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  2. Effects of alewife predation on zooplankton populations in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wells, LaRue

    1970-01-01

    The zooplankton populations in southeastern Lake Michigan underwent striking, size-related changes between 1954 and 1966. Forms that decline sharply were the largest cladocerans (Leptodora kindtii, Daphnia galeata, and D. retrocurva), the largest calanoid copepods (Limnocalanus macrurus, Epischura lacustris, and Diaptomus sicilis), and the largest cyclopoid copepod (Mesocyclops edax). Two of these, D. galeata and M. edax (both abundant in 1954), became extremely rare. Certain medium-sized or small species increased in numbers: Daphnia longiremis, Holopedium gibberum, Polyphemus pediculus, Bosmina longirostris, Bosmina coregoni, Ceriodaphnia sp., Cyclops bicuspidatus, Cyclops vernalis, and Diaptomus ashlandi. Evidence is strong that the changes were due to selective predation by alewives. The alewife was uncommon in southeastern Lake Michigan in 1954 but had increased to enormous proportions by 1966; there was a massive dieoff in spring 1967, and abundance remained relatively low in 1968. The composition of zooplankton populations in 1968 generally had shifted back toward that of 1954, although D. galeata and M. edax remained rare. The average size, and size at onset of maturity, of D. retrocurva decreased noticeably between 1954 and 1966 but increased between 1966 and 1968.

  3. BENEFICIAL USE IMPAIRMENT #13: DEGRADATION OF PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Pursuant to the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement and Annex 2, the Detroit River possesses several impaired beneficial uses. Beneficial Use #13 addresses phyto- and zooplankton populatioins and whether or not they are degraded or impaired....

  4. Distribution and abundance of zooplankton populations in Crater Lake, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larson, G.L.; McIntire, C.D.; Buktenica, M.W.; Girdner, S.F.; Truitt, R.E.

    2007-01-01

    The zooplankton assemblages in Crater Lake exhibited consistency in species richness and general taxonomic composition, but varied in density and biomass during the period between 1988 and 2000. Collectively, the assemblages included 2 cladoceran taxa and 10 rotifer taxa (excluding rare taxa). Vertical habitat partitioning of the water column to a depth of 200 m was observed for most species with similar food habits and/or feeding mechanisms. No congeneric replacement was observed. The dominant species in the assemblages were variable, switching primarily between periods of dominance of Polyarthra-Keratella cochlearis and Daphnia. The unexpected occurrence and dominance of Asplanchna in 1991 and 1992 resulted in a major change in this typical temporal shift between Polyarthra-K. cochlearis and Daphnia. Following a collapse of the zooplankton biomass in 1993 that was probably caused by predation from Asplanchna, Kellicottia dominated the zooplankton assemblage biomass between 1994 and 1997. The decline in biomass of Kellicottia by 1998 coincided with a dramatic increase in Daphnia biomass. When Daphnia biomass declined by 2000, Keratella biomass increased again. Thus, by 1998 the assemblage returned to the typical shift between Keratella-Polyarthra and Daphnia. Although these observations provided considerable insight about the interannual variability of the zooplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, little was discovered about mechanisms behind the variability. When abundant, kokanee salmon may have played an important role in the disappearance of Daphnia in 1990 and 2000 either through predation, inducing diapause, or both. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  5. Estimating population birth rates of zooplankton when rates of egg deposition and hatching are periodic

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. M. Dorazio

    1986-01-01

    I present a general method of computing finite birth and death rates of natural zooplankton populations from changes in the age distribution of eggs and changes in population size. The method is applicable to cases in which eggs hatch periodically owing to variable rates of oviposition. When morphological criteria are used to determine the age distribution of eggs at the

  6. Estimation of Size-Specific Mortality Rates in Zooplankton Populations by Periodic Michael Lynch

    E-print Network

    Lynch, Michael

    Estimation of Size-Specific Mortality Rates in Zooplankton Populations by Periodic Sampling Michael, by the Amer~canSociety of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc. Estimation of size-specific mortality rates patterns of size-specific mortality for such species from periodic samples. The technique does not require

  7. RESPONSE OF PREDATORY ZOOPLANKTON POPULATIONS TO THE EXPERIMENTAL ACIDIFICATION OF LITTLE ROCK LAKE, WI

    EPA Science Inventory

    To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, we monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of there levels: pH 5.6, 5.2, and 4.7). oncentrations...

  8. Modelling production and biomasses of herbivorous and predatory zooplankton in lakes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lars Håkanson; Viktor V. Boulion

    2003-01-01

    This work presents a dynamic model to predict two fundamental functional categories of zooplankton in lakes, herbivorous and predatory zooplankton. The model has been developed as an integral part within the framework of a more comprehensive lake ecosystem model, LakeWeb, which also accounts for phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, two types of fish (prey and predatory), as well as zoobenthos, macrophytes and benthic

  9. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  10. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kenneth B. Armitage; Bhagwan Saxena; Ernest E. Angino

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid\\u000a copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more\\u000a than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag\\u000a or in 3-week or 4-week lag except

  11. Role of zooplankton diversity in Vibrio cholerae population dynamics and in the incidence of cholera in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

    PubMed

    de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Mozumder, Pronob K; Grim, Christopher J; Hasan, Nur A; Naser, M Niamul; Alam, Munirul; Sack, R Bradley; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R

    2011-09-01

    Vibrio cholerae, a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, is the causative agent of cholera, a severe watery, life-threatening diarrheal disease occurring predominantly in developing countries. V. cholerae, including both serogroups O1 and O139, is found in association with crustacean zooplankton, mainly copepods, and notably in ponds, rivers, and estuarine systems globally. The incidence of cholera and occurrence of pathogenic V. cholerae strains with zooplankton were studied in two areas of Bangladesh: Bakerganj and Mathbaria. Chitinous zooplankton communities of several bodies of water were analyzed in order to understand the interaction of the zooplankton population composition with the population dynamics of pathogenic V. cholerae and incidence of cholera. Two dominant zooplankton groups were found to be consistently associated with detection of V. cholerae and/or occurrence of cholera cases, namely, rotifers and cladocerans, in addition to copepods. Local differences indicate there are subtle ecological factors that can influence interactions between V. cholerae, its plankton hosts, and the incidence of cholera. PMID:21764957

  12. Role of Zooplankton Diversity in Vibrio cholerae Population Dynamics and in the Incidence of Cholera in the Bangladesh Sundarbans ?

    PubMed Central

    de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Mozumder, Pronob K.; Grim, Christopher J.; Hasan, Nur A.; Naser, M. Niamul; Alam, Munirul; Sack, R. Bradley; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2011-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae, a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, is the causative agent of cholera, a severe watery, life-threatening diarrheal disease occurring predominantly in developing countries. V. cholerae, including both serogroups O1 and O139, is found in association with crustacean zooplankton, mainly copepods, and notably in ponds, rivers, and estuarine systems globally. The incidence of cholera and occurrence of pathogenic V. cholerae strains with zooplankton were studied in two areas of Bangladesh: Bakerganj and Mathbaria. Chitinous zooplankton communities of several bodies of water were analyzed in order to understand the interaction of the zooplankton population composition with the population dynamics of pathogenic V. cholerae and incidence of cholera. Two dominant zooplankton groups were found to be consistently associated with detection of V. cholerae and/or occurrence of cholera cases, namely, rotifers and cladocerans, in addition to copepods. Local differences indicate there are subtle ecological factors that can influence interactions between V. cholerae, its plankton hosts, and the incidence of cholera. PMID:21764957

  13. Impact of climate change on zooplankton communities, seabird populations and arctic terrestrial ecosystem—A scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stempniewicz, Lech; B?achowiak-Samo?yk, Katarzyna; W?s?awski, Jan M.

    2007-11-01

    Many arctic terrestrial ecosystems suffer from a permanent deficiency of nutrients. Marine birds that forage at sea and breed on land can transport organic matter from the sea to land, and thus help to initiate and sustain terrestrial ecosystems. This organic matter initiates the emergence of local tundra communities, increasing primary and secondary production and species diversity. Climate change will influence ocean circulation and the hydrologic regime, which will consequently lead to a restructuring of zooplankton communities between cold arctic waters, with a dominance of large zooplankton species, and Atlantic waters in which small species predominate. The dominance of large zooplankton favours plankton-eating seabirds, such as the little auk ( Alle alle), while the presence of small zooplankton redirects the food chain to plankton-eating fish, up through to fish-eating birds (e.g., guillemots Uria sp.). Thus, in regions where the two water masses compete for dominance, such as in the Barents Sea, plankton-eating birds should dominate the avifauna in cold periods and recess in warmer periods, when fish-eaters should prevail. Therefore under future anthropogenic climate scenarios, there could be serious consequences for the structure and functioning of the terrestrial part of arctic ecosystems, due in part to changes in the arctic marine avifauna. Large colonies of plankton-eating little auks are located on mild mountain slopes, usually a few kilometres from the shore, whereas colonies of fish-eating guillemots are situated on rocky cliffs at the coast. The impact of guillemots on the terrestrial ecosystems is therefore much smaller than for little auks because of the rapid washing-out to sea of the guano deposited on the seabird cliffs. These characteristics of seabird nesting sites dramatically limit the range of occurrence of ornithogenic soils, and the accompanying flora and fauna, to locations where talus-breeding species occur. As a result of climate warming favoring the increase of ichthyiofagous cliff-nesting seabirds, we can expect that large areas of ornithogenic tundra around the colonies of plankton-eating seabirds situated far from the sea may disappear, while areas of tundra in the vicinity of cliffs inhabited by fish-eating seabirds, with low total production and supporting few large herbivores, will likely increase, but only imperceptibly. This may lead to habitat fragmentation with negative consequences for populations of tundra-dependent birds and mammals, and the possibility of a substantial decrease in biodiversity of tundra plant and animal communities.

  14. Population structure changes in zooplankton following PAH exposure in aquatic mesocosms

    SciTech Connect

    McCann, J.H.; Gensemer, R.W.; Solomon, K.R. [Univ. of Guelph, Ontario (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    Studies on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have generally concentrated on single compounds. However, PAHs are usually found as mixtures in the aquatic environment and may pose significant risk to the ecosystem. A study was conducted to determine the effect of creosote (a mixture of PAHs) on pelagic invertebrates, including cladocerans, copepods, amphipods, and rotifers. Artificial aquatic mesocosms consisting of a simple community structure, including fish, algae, macrophytes and invertebrates, were utilized. Four doses of creosote and a control were used. Dosing was accomplished by adding contaminated sediment to the mesocosm, ranging from 100 cm{sup 2} to 3 m{sup 2} in area. As well, 1 to 8 creosote coated log pilings were added to several mesocosms, simulating aquatic exposure to preserved log pilings. The zooplankton at the various dose levels were enumerated. The changes in population structure will be described.

  15. Response of predatory zooplankton populations to the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin

    SciTech Connect

    Sierszen, M.E.; Frost, T.M.

    1993-01-01

    To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, the authors monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of three levels: pH 5.6, 5.2 and 4.7). Concentrations of phantom midge (Chaoborus spp.), the most abundant large predator, remained similar in the treatment and reference basins until the fourth year (pH 5.2) when they increased in the treatment basin. In contrast, Epischura lacustris and Leptodora kindtii disappeared from limnetic samples, and water mites declined to near zero upon acidification. Treatment basin populations of E. lacustris declined sharply during the second year of acidification. The nature of the decline suggested sensitivity of an early life stage during the first year at pH 5.6. Leptodora kindtii showed no population response at pH 5.6, but declined to essentially zero at pH 5.2. Treatment basin populations of water mites fluctuated until declining in the fifth and sixth years (pH 4.7). These changes indicate a variety of direct and indirect responses to lake acidification.

  16. Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

    2014-03-01

    The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

  17. Effect of demographic noise in a phytoplankton-zooplankton model of bloom dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olla, Piero

    2013-01-01

    An extension of the Truscott-Brindley model [Bull. Math. Biol.10.1007/BF02458277 56, 981 (1994)] is derived to account for the effect of demographic fluctuations. In the presence of seasonal forcing and sufficiently shallow water conditions, the fluctuations induced by the discreteness of the zooplankton component appear sufficient to cause switching between the bloom and no-bloom cycles predicted at the mean-field level by the model. The destabilization persists in the thermodynamic limit of a water basin infinitely extended in the horizontal direction.

  18. Culture optimization for the emergent zooplanktonic model organism Oikopleura dioica

    PubMed Central

    Bouquet, Jean-Marie; Spriet, Endy; Troedsson, Christofer; Otterå, Helen; Chourrout, Daniel; Thompson, Eric M.

    2009-01-01

    The pan-global marine appendicularian, Oikopleura dioica, shows considerable promise as a candidate model organism for cross-disciplinary research ranging from chordate genetics and evolution to molecular ecology research. This urochordate, has a simplified anatomical organization, remains transparent throughout an exceptionally short life cycle of less than 1 week and exhibits high fecundity. At 70 Mb, the compact, sequenced genome ranks among the smallest known metazoan genomes, with both gene regulatory and intronic regions highly reduced in size. The organism occupies an important trophic role in marine ecosystems and is a significant contributor to global vertical carbon flux. Among the short list of bona fide biological model organisms, all share the property that they are amenable to long-term maintenance in laboratory cultures. Here, we tested diet regimes, spawn densities and dilutions and seawater treatment, leading to optimization of a detailed culture protocol that permits sustainable long-term maintenance of O. dioica, allowing continuous, uninterrupted production of source material for experimentation. The culture protocol can be quickly adapted in both coastal and inland laboratories and should promote rapid development of the many original research perspectives the animal offers. PMID:19461862

  19. Culture optimization for the emergent zooplanktonic model organism Oikopleura dioica.

    PubMed

    Bouquet, Jean-Marie; Spriet, Endy; Troedsson, Christofer; Otterå, Helen; Chourrout, Daniel; Thompson, Eric M

    2009-04-01

    The pan-global marine appendicularian, Oikopleura dioica, shows considerable promise as a candidate model organism for cross-disciplinary research ranging from chordate genetics and evolution to molecular ecology research. This urochordate, has a simplified anatomical organization, remains transparent throughout an exceptionally short life cycle of less than 1 week and exhibits high fecundity. At 70 Mb, the compact, sequenced genome ranks among the smallest known metazoan genomes, with both gene regulatory and intronic regions highly reduced in size. The organism occupies an important trophic role in marine ecosystems and is a significant contributor to global vertical carbon flux. Among the short list of bona fide biological model organisms, all share the property that they are amenable to long-term maintenance in laboratory cultures. Here, we tested diet regimes, spawn densities and dilutions and seawater treatment, leading to optimization of a detailed culture protocol that permits sustainable long-term maintenance of O. dioica, allowing continuous, uninterrupted production of source material for experimentation. The culture protocol can be quickly adapted in both coastal and inland laboratories and should promote rapid development of the many original research perspectives the animal offers. PMID:19461862

  20. The zooplankton of Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula—Part I: Abundance, distribution, and population response to variability in environmental conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marrari, Marina; Daly, Kendra L.; Timonin, Alexander; Semenova, Tatjana

    2011-07-01

    The zooplankton community of Marguerite Bay was studied during austral fall of 2001 and 2002 using net and concurrent environmental data. Interannual differences were observed in zooplankton species composition, developmental stages, and abundances, which were linked to unusually high chlorophyll concentrations in the Bellingshausen Sea and Marguerite Bay during spring-summer 2000/2001. Copepod abundance was significantly higher in 2001 than in 2002 (46.3 and 28.3 ind m -3 in 2001 and 2002, respectively). During 2001, the copepod community was dominated by two species. Calanoides acutus, a herbivore, and Metridia gerlachei, an omnivore, accounted for 46% and 45% of the community, respectively. During 2002, however, several species were relatively abundant, including M. gerlachei, Ctenocalanus spp., C. acutus, Oithona spp., and Paraeuchaeta spp. Euphausiids also showed a rapid population response to high chlorophyll levels in 2001. Even though average total euphausiid (juvenile/adult) abundances were similar during both years (0.20 and 0.15 ind m -3 for 2001 and 2002, respectively), species composition showed marked interannual differences due to varying life history strategies among species. Thysanoessa macrura, which has a relatively rapid development from larval to juvenile stages between spring and fall of the same year, was the most abundant euphausiid in 2001. In contrast, Euphausia crystallorophias and Euphausia superba juvenile/adult populations increased in 2002, owing to a slower development in which larval stages overwinter and recruit to juveniles during the following spring/summer. Other zooplankton groups those were abundant in Marguerite Bay, but showed little variability between years, included ostracods, pteropods, chaetognaths, medusae, amphipods, and mysids. Summer phytoplankton concentrations strongly influenced copepods and euphausiids; however, there were no clear associations between zooplankton distributions and fall environmental conditions (i.e., pigment concentrations and surface salinity) or bottom depth. It is notable that ostracods and pteropods had the highest abundances of non-copepod zooplankton.

  1. A New Trait-Based Auto-Emergent Model for Zooplankton and Confrontation with Size-Structured Observations from the Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vandromme, Pieter; Sourisseau, Marc; Huret, Martin

    2013-04-01

    Zooplankton plays a significant role in marine ecosystems bridging the gap between primary producers and top consumers and interacting with the particle flux through complex dynamics. Scarcity of data and complexity of observing zooplankton make it difficult to integrate it in biogeochemical models where it is most often formulated in a simpler manner, i.e. classic box models with usually two compartments (micro and meso/macro zooplankton). Recent advances in automatic sizing, counting and identification allow better estimates of the dynamics and distribution of zooplankton, notably through the measurement of its size structure, and for zooplankton size matter. Most zooplankton physiological rates as well as predator:prey interactions can be significantly relied to individuals size through allometric relations. Such size-dependency was used in recent models. Yet, these models were neither confronted to observations nor integrated in 3D biogeochemical models. Here we propose a newly developed model of zooplankton dynamics based on size-dependent allometric relations but which allows various diet types regardless of the size. A size and a degree of herbivory is randomly drawn for each zooplankton species generated within the model (up to 400 here, limited by actual computational costs). By generating random degree of herbivory zooplankton species of same size could have various diet (from herbivore to carnivore). Other parameters leading to various reproductive strategies or vertical migration could also be drawn randomly (not tested here). The zooplankton model is coupled to the 3D biogeochemical model MARS3D on a test case representing a simplified view of the Bay of Biscay (i.e., continental shelf, estuary, tides). The model shows auto-emergent properties with the selection of size/diet most adapted to local conditions (here offshore vs. coastal, estuary…). Then, patterns of the modeled size-structure of the zooplankton are confronted to the ones observed during Spring-time cruises in the Bay of Biscay. The usefulness of the proposed zooplankton model for large scale biogeochemical models is further discussed.

  2. Seasonal dynamics of rotifer and crustacean zooplankton populations in a eutrophic, monomictic lake with a note on rotifer sampling techniques

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John D. Orcutt; Michael L. Pace

    1984-01-01

    The abundances, biomass, and seasonal succession of rotifer and crustacean zooplankton were examined in a man-made, eutrophic lake, Lake Oglethorpe, over a 13 month period. There was an inverse correlation between the abundance of rotifers and crustaceans. Rotifers were most abundant and dominated (>69%) the rotifer-crustacean biomass during summer months (June–September) while crustacean zooplankton dominated during the remainder of the

  3. Synoptic-scale upwelling indices and predictions of phyto- and zooplankton populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Reyes, Marisol; Largier, John L.; Sydeman, William J.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal upwelling is responsible for the biologically rich and productive ecosystems of coastal eastern boundary currents. In most studies of physical - biological interactions in these systems, upwelling statistics are computed on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales, whereas upwelling naturally occurs at high frequencies (days to weeks). This simplification of the upwelling process may misrepresent relationships between upwelling and biological populations. Based on 31 years (1982-2012) of hourly-measured winds and sea surface temperature at buoys off the central-northern California coast, we characterized upwelling and relaxation events at synoptic time scales, and used event-scale statistics to relate to local lower trophic level populations. We defined three metrics to quantify synoptic-scale upwelling: (i) Intensity, a measure of cumulative wind stress forcing during each upwelling event, (ii) SSTevent, a measure of the oceanic response to wind forcing, and (iii) Nutrient Upwelling Index (NUI), a measure of the nitrate availability at the surface during upwelling events. We compared cumulative values of Intensity and NUI, and average values of SSTevent during the peak of the upwelling season (April-June in central-northern California) to proxies of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll-a concentrations) and krill abundance to assess the abilities of high frequency upwelling indices to predict biology. Wind forcing alone (Intensity) did not explain population variability, but SSTevent and NUI showed excellent relationships to chlorophyll concentrations (44% and 54% of variance explained, respectively) and krill abundance (68% of variance explained). All relationships appeared to be dome-shaped, supporting the hypothesis that moderate upwelling and ocean temperature are optimal for these populations. SSTevent and NUI performed better than the traditional Bakun upwelling index in predicting populations. We conclude that investigating upwelling characteristics on event scales can improve understanding of lower trophic level dynamics in eastern boundary current systems.

  4. A modeling study to explore on-shelf transport of oceanic zooplankton in the Eastern Bering Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, G. A.; Coyle, K. O.; Hedstrom, K.; Curchitser, E. N.

    2013-07-01

    The Eastern Bering Sea shelf is divided into distinct hydrographic domains by structural fronts. Despite frontal obstructions to cross-shelf transport, each year large oceanic copepods—primarily Neocalanus spp.—are known to dominate the biomass of the outer-shelf zooplankton communities, and in some years are advected into the middle-shelf domain. Using ROMS (the Regional Ocean Modeling System), coupled with a float tracking model designed to represent ontogenetic vertical migration behavior of Neocalanus, we explored the mechanisms, timing, and location of the transport of oceanic zooplankton onto the eastern Bering Sea shelf from overwintering sources along the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea shelf breaks, under a variety of environmental conditions. Our float tracking experiments suggest that the timing of on-shelf transport and the distribution of oceanic zooplankton on the shelf can vary substantially between one year and another. The Bering, Pribilof, and Zhemchug Canyons and Cape Navarin were all regions of elevated on-shelf float transport. Wind direction was the primary factor controlling inter-annual variability in the timing, amount, and location of the on-shelf transport of our Neocalanus floats. Float transport across the northern and southern shelves responded in opposite directions to inter-annual differences in wind forcing: southeasterly wind enhanced on-shelf transport of the Neocalanus floats along the southern shelf but suppressed on-shelf transport over the northern shelf. Conversely, northwesterly wind suppressed on-shelf zooplankton transport onto the southern shelf but promoted enhanced transport around Cape Navarin on the northern shelf. Transport of the Neocalanus floats onto the shelf can be very episodic, reflecting the short duration of winds that promote on-shelf transport. Relatively short (days to weeks) periods of southeasterly wind between March and April significantly impacted the number of floats transported onto the shelf. The relative importance of different source areas to supplying oceanic zooplankton to the Bering Sea shelf does not appear to vary much from year to year. Our model results suggest that the Neocalanus found on the southern shelf most likely originate from overwintering sites in the Alaska Stream or the Eastern Bering Sea shelf break south of the Pribilof Islands, while Neocalanus found on the northern shelf most likely originate from sites north of the Pribilof Islands.

  5. Experimental validation of an individual-based model for zooplankton swarming

    E-print Network

    Hickey, Barbara

    , and excitational forces, are calculated from theoretical fits to digitized animal trajectories. These parameters fields; the ratio of swarm size to swimming speed). 1. Introduction The ecology of marine planktonic or distributing animals in an #12;2 organized way--is well-known, and controls small-scale zooplankton

  6. A hybrid spectral representation of phytoplankton growth and zooplankton response: The ''control rod'' model of plankton interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Robert A.

    2003-11-01

    Phytoplankton species interact through competition for light and nutrients; they also interact through grazers they hold in common. Both interactions are expected to be size-dependent: smaller phytoplankton species will be at an advantage when nutrients are scarce due to surface/volume considerations, while species that are similar in size are more likely to be consumed by grazers held in common than are species that differ greatly in size. While phytoplankton competition for nutrients and light has been extensively characterized, size-based interaction through shared grazers has not been represented systematically. The latter situation is particularly unfortunate because small changes in community structure can give rise to large changes in ecosystem dynamics and, in inverse modeling, to large changes in estimated parameter values. A simple, systematic way to represent phytoplankton interaction through shared grazers, one resistant to unintended idiosyncrasy of model construction yet capable of representing scientifically justifiable idiosyncrasy, would aid greatly in the modeling process. Here I develop a model structure that allows systematic representation of plankton interaction. In this model, the zooplankton community is represented as a continuous size spectrum, while phytoplankton species can be represented individually. The mechanistic basis of the model is a shift in the zooplankton community from carnivory to omnivory to herbivory as phytoplankton density increases. I discuss two limiting approximations in some detail, and fit both to data from the IronEx II experiment. The first limiting case represents a community with no grazer-based interaction among phytoplankton species; this approximation illuminates the general structure of the model. In particular, the zooplankton spectrum can be viewed as the analog of a control rod in a nuclear reactor, which prevents (or fails to prevent) an exponential bloom of phytoplankton. A second, more complex limiting case allows more general interaction of phytoplankton species along a size axis. This latter case would be suitable for describing competition among species with distinct biogeochemical roles, or between species that cause harmful algal blooms and those that do not. The model structure as a whole is therefore simple enough to guide thinking, yet detailed enough to allow quantitative prediction.

  7. High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

  8. Comparisons of zooplankton time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackas, David L.; Beaugrand, Gregory

    2010-02-01

    Evidence for climate-correlated low frequency variability of various components of marine ecosystems has accumulated rapidly over the past 2 decades. There has also been a growing recognition that society needs to learn how the fluctuations of these various components are linked, and to predict the likely amplitude and steepness of future changes. Demographic characteristics of marine zooplankton make them especially suitable for examining variability of marine ecosystems at interannual to decadal time scales. Their life cycle duration is short enough that there is little carryover of population membership from year to year, but long enough that variability can be tracked with monthly-to-seasonal sampling. Because zooplankton are rarely fished, comparative analysis of changes in their abundance can greatly enhance our ability to evaluate the importance of and interaction between physical environment, food web, and fishery harvest as causal mechanisms driving ecosystem level changes. A number of valuable within-region analyses of zooplankton time series have been published in the past decade, covering a variety of modes of variability including changes in total biomass, changes in size structure and species composition, changes in spatial distribution, and changes in seasonal timing. But because most zooplankton time series are relatively short compared to the time scales of interest, the statistical power of local analyses is often low, and between-region and between-variable comparisons are also needed. In this paper, we review the results of recent within- and between-region analyses, and suggest some priorities for future work.

  9. Modeling the direct and indirect effects of copper on phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions.

    PubMed

    Prosnier, Loïc; Loreau, Michel; Hulot, Florence D

    2015-05-01

    Predicting the effects of pollution at the community level is difficult because of the complex impacts of ecosystem dynamics and properties. To predict the effects of copper on a plant-herbivore interaction in a freshwater ecosystem, we built a model that focuses on the interaction between an alga, Scenedesmus sp., and a herbivore, Daphnia sp. The model assumes logistic growth for Scenedesmus and a type II functional response for Daphnia. Internal copper concentrations in Scenedesmus and Daphnia are calculated using a biodynamic model. We include two types of direct effects of copper on Scenedesmus and Daphnia that results from hormesis: a deficiency effect at low concentration and a toxic effect at high concentration. We perform a numerical analysis to predict the combined effects of copper and nutrient enrichment on the Scenedesmus-Daphnia interaction. Results show three types of outcomes depending on copper concentration. First, low (4?gL(-1)) and high (50?gL(-1)) copper concentrations cause deficiency and toxicity, respectively, leading to the extinction of all populations; for less extreme concentrations (between 4 and 5?gL(-1) and between 16.5 and 50?gL(-1)), only the consumer population becomes extinct. The two populations survive with intermediate concentrations. Second, when population dynamics present oscillations, copper has a stabilizing effect and reduces or suppresses oscillations. Third, copper, on account of its stabilizing effect, opposes the destabilizing effect of nutrient enrichment. Our model shows that (1) Daphnia is affected by copper at lower concentrations when community interactions are taken into account than when analyzed alone, and (2) counterintuitive effects may arise from the interaction between copper pollution and nutrient enrichment. Our model also suggests that single-value parameters such as NOEC and LOEC, which do not take community interactions into account to characterize pollutants effects, are unable to determine pollutant effects in complex ecosystems. More generally, our model underscores the importance of ecosystem-scale studies to predict the effects of pollutants. PMID:25781394

  10. Latitudinal comparisons of equatorial Pacific zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, M. R.; Dam, H. G.; Le Borgne, R.; Zhang, X.

    Zooplankton biomass and rates of ingestion, egestion and production in the equatorial Pacific Ocean along 140°W and 180° exhibit maximum values in the High-Nutrient Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) zone associated with equatorial upwelling (5°S-5°N) as compared to the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south. Zooplankton biomass and rates are not usually highest on the equator, but increase "downstream" of the upwelling center as the zooplankton populations exhibit a delayed response to enhanced phytoplankton production. The vertical distribution of zooplankton biomass in the equatorial HNLC area tends to be concentrated in surface waters and is more uniform with depth in oligotrophic regions to the north and south of the equatorial upwelling zone. In general, the amount of mesozooplankton (>200 ?m) carbon biomass is approximately 25% of estimated phytoplankton biomass and 30% of bacterial biomass in the HNLC area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Zooplankton grazing on phytoplankton is low in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, generally <5% of the total chlorophyll-a standing stock grazed per day. Based on estimates of metabolic demand, it is apparent that zooplankton in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are omnivores, consuming primarily microzooplankton and detritus. Estimated zooplankton growth rates in the warm waters of the HNLC equatorial Pacific Ocean are high, ranging from 0.58 d -1 for 64-200 ?m zooplankton to 0.08 d -1 for 1000-2000 ?m zooplankton. Thus, the numerical and functional response of equatorial zooplankton to increases in phytoplankton production are more rapid than normally occurs in sub-tropical and temperate waters. Potential zooplankton fecal pellet production, estimated from metabolic demand, is approximately 1.6 times the estimated gravitational carbon flux at 150 m in the zone of equatorial upwelling (5°S-5°N) and 1.1 times the export flux in the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south. The active flux of carbon by diel migrant zooplankton in the HNLC zone is a minor fraction of the gravitational flux (2% at 140°W, 4% at 180°) but increases in the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south where there is a deeper mixed layer and a greater relative proportion of diel migrant zooplankton.

  11. Zooplankton in the Arctic outflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, K. A.; Dritz, A. V.; Nikishina, A. B.

    2009-04-01

    Climate changes in the Arctic cause the changes in the current system that may have cascading effect on the structure of plankton community and consequently on the interlinked and delicately balanced food web. Zooplankton species are by definition incapable to perform horizontal moving. Their transport is connected with flowing water. There are zooplankton species specific for the definite water masses and they can be used as markers for the different currents. That allows us to consider zooplankton community composition as a result of water mixing in the studied area. Little is known however about the mechanisms by which spatial and temporal variability in advection affect dynamics of local populations. Ice conditions are also very important in the function of pelagic communities. Melting time is the trigger to all "plankton blooming" processes, and the duration of ice-free conditions determines the food web development in the future. Fram Strait is one of the key regions for the Arctic: the cold water outflow comes through it with the East Greenland Current and meets warm Atlantic water, the West Spitsbergen Current, producing complicated hydrological situation. During 2007 and 2008 we investigated the structure functional characteristics of zooplankton community in the Fram Strait region onboard KV "Svalbard" (April 2007, April and May 2008) and RV "Jan Mayen" (May 2007, August 2008). This study was conducted in frame of iAOOS Norway project "Closing the loop", which, in turn, was a part of IPY. During this cruises multidisciplinary investigations were performed, including sea-ice observations, CTD and ADCP profiling, carbon flux, nutrients and primary production measurements, phytoplankton sampling. Zooplankton was collected with the Hydro-Bios WP2 net and MultiNet Zooplankton Sampler, (mouth area 0.25 m2, mesh size 180 um).Samples were taken from the depth strata of 2000-1500, 1500-1000, 1000-500,500-200, 200-100, 100-60, 60-30, 30-0 m. Gut fluorescence content were measured in dominant species to investigate effect of Chl a concentration and phytoplankton composition on ingestion rate. Egg production experiments were carried out under different food conditions. Rare deep water zooplankton species were also investigated to increase our knowledge in the Arctic biodiversity. Copepods Calanus finmarchicus is known as a marker of the Atlantic water mass, Calanus glacialis and Calanus hyperboreus, vice versa, are the coldwater Arctic species. In our study we investigated three Calanus species distribution and analyzed their ecological status. Changes in zooplankton composition results in the alteration of energy transfer within the pelagic food web ("cold" and "warm" scenarios) with potential consequences for growth and survival of seabirds Little Auk (Alle alle) and Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla). We discuss the advection effect on the zooplankton community, compare the population development phases with phytoplankton bloom phases (match-mismatch), estimate grazing impact on phytoplankton community and consider different life strategies for the three different Calanus species.

  12. Zooplankton mortality in 3D ecosystem modelling considering variable spatial-temporal fish consumptions in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maar, Marie; Rindorf, Anna; Møller, Eva Friis; Christensen, Asbjørn; Madsen, Kristine S.; van Deurs, Mikael

    2014-05-01

    We tested the feasibility of imposing mesozooplankton mortality into a 3D model based on estimated consumption rates of the dominant planktivorous fish in the North Sea-Kattegat area. The spatial biomass distribution of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), sandeel (Ammodytidae) and European sprat (Sprattus sprattus) was derived from quarterly scientific trawl surveys and Danish commercial catches. Spatio-temporal indices of mortality were created based on the estimated biomasses and ingestion rates from the literature. The fish larvae grazing pressure was obtained from a spatial, size-based larval community model. In this model, larvae, herring and sandeel were the most important fish predators on mesozooplankton, but these groups had different spatial and temporal (seasonal) distributions. Fish larvae were particularly dominant in the eastern and southern areas in early summer. Herring and sandeel had the highest consumption in the central and north-western areas and were more important in late summer. The fish index changed the perceived annual, seasonal and spatial patterns in modelled mesozooplankton biomass, production and mortality. In the present study, the index was kept relatively simple and can be further developed with respect to the description of fish as well carnivorous zooplankton ingestion rates. The data input required to create the fish index is (i) planktivorous fish stock biomasses and (ii) relative fish spawning distribution information and (iii) physics (ocean currents and temperatures) for the region and situation of interest. The fish index seems promising as a realistic mortality term for lower trophic levels in 3D ecosystem models in areas with available data on fish stocks to improve management of marine resources.

  13. Microplastic ingestion by zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Cole, Matthew; Lindeque, Pennie; Fileman, Elaine; Halsband, Claudia; Goodhead, Rhys; Moger, Julian; Galloway, Tamara S

    2013-06-18

    Small plastic detritus, termed "microplastics", are a widespread and ubiquitous contaminant of marine ecosystems across the globe. Ingestion of microplastics by marine biota, including mussels, worms, fish, and seabirds, has been widely reported, but despite their vital ecological role in marine food-webs, the impact of microplastics on zooplankton remains under-researched. Here, we show that microplastics are ingested by, and may impact upon, zooplankton. We used bioimaging techniques to document ingestion, egestion, and adherence of microplastics in a range of zooplankton common to the northeast Atlantic, and employed feeding rate studies to determine the impact of plastic detritus on algal ingestion rates in copepods. Using fluorescence and coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) microscopy we identified that thirteen zooplankton taxa had the capacity to ingest 1.7-30.6 ?m polystyrene beads, with uptake varying by taxa, life-stage and bead-size. Post-ingestion, copepods egested faecal pellets laden with microplastics. We further observed microplastics adhered to the external carapace and appendages of exposed zooplankton. Exposure of the copepod Centropages typicus to natural assemblages of algae with and without microplastics showed that 7.3 ?m microplastics (>4000 mL(-1)) significantly decreased algal feeding. Our findings imply that marine microplastic debris can negatively impact upon zooplankton function and health. PMID:23692270

  14. Nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton models with a S. R.-J. Jang1

    E-print Network

    Baglama, James

    's role as a major contributor of photosyn- thetic production on earth, plankton populations comprise% of the planet's total annual photosynthetic production. It has been well documented that cer- tain chemicals a large number 1 #12;of different species and are in the bottom of the food chain. Consequently

  15. Early is better: seasonal egg fitness and timing of reproduction in a zooplankton life-history model

    E-print Network

    Heino, Mikko

    because climate change may influence the timing of annual biological events (Both et al. 2006, Jonze´n et food availability and predation risk fluctuate seasonally. Marine zooplankton have evolved a diversity. Many plants and animals experience environmental conditions that allow growth or reproduction only

  16. Global Dynamics of Zooplankton and Harmful Algae in Flowing Habitats

    E-print Network

    Hsu, Sze-Bi

    Global Dynamics of Zooplankton and Harmful Algae in Flowing Habitats Sze-Bi Hsu Feng-Bin Wang Xiao from the dynamics of harmful algae and zooplankton in flowing- water habitats where a main channel. For the system modeling the dynamics of algae and their toxin that contains little limiting nutrient, we

  17. Phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics in periodic environments taking into account eutrophication.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jinhuo

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we derive and analyze a mathematical model for the interactions between phytoplankton and zooplankton in a periodic environment, in which the growth rate and the intrinsic carrying-capacity of phytoplankton are changing with respect to time and nutrient concentration. A threshold value: "Predator's average growth rate" is introduced and it is proved that the phytoplankton-zooplankton ecosystem is permanent (both populations survive cronically) and possesses a periodic solution if and only if the value is positive. We use TP (Total Phosphorus) concentration to mark the degree of eutrophication. Based on experimental data, we fit the growth rate function and the environmental carrying capacity function with temperature and nutrient concentration as independent variables. Using measured data of temperature on water bodies we fit a periodic temperature function of time, and this leads the growth rate and intrinsic carrying-capacity of phytoplankton to be periodic functions of time. Thus we establish a periodic system with TP concentration as parameter. The simulation results reveal a high diversity of population levels of the ecosystem that are mainly sensitive to TP concentration and the death-rate of zooplankton. It illustrates that the eruption of algal bloom is mainly resulted from the increasing of nutrient concentration while zooplankton only plays a role to alleviate the scale of algal bloom, which might be used to explain the mechanism of algal bloom occurrence in many natural waters. What is more, our results provide a better understanding of the traditional manipulation method. PMID:23791607

  18. PUMA (PUMA CONCOLOR) POPULATION MODELING

    E-print Network

    Cavitt, John F.

    PUMA (PUMA CONCOLOR) POPULATION MODELING Wildlife managers recognize that mathematical models can strategies. In this laboratory you will utilize PUMA, a population simulator, to predict the risk of extinction in a Puma population under various developmental scenarios. Development can potentially impact

  19. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  20. Quantitative comparison of food niches in some freshwater zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    K. G. Bogdan; J. J. Gilbert

    1987-01-01

    The abilities of some zooplankton (rotifers, cladocerans, copepods) to ingest different sizes and kinds of food cells were quantified by determining the relative efficiencies with which they ingested nine tracer-cell types, ranging from a coccoid bacterium (0.45 µm3) to the alga Cryptomonas erosa (800–920 µm3). These efficiencies were obtained by dividing the clearance rate of each zooplankton group (species population,

  1. Changing zooplankton seasonality in a changing ocean: Comparing time series of zooplankton phenology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackas, D. L.; Greve, W.; Edwards, M.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Eloire, D.; Mazzocchi, M. G.; Batten, S.; Richardson, A. J.; Johnson, C.; Head, E.; Conversi, A.; Peluso, T.

    2012-05-01

    Marine zooplankton must deal with seasonal variations of the upper-ocean environment that are both intense and prolonged compared to their life spans. This leads to large seasonal fluctuations of population size, and strong evolutionary tuning of demographic processes (e.g. reproduction, somatic and population growth, and dormancy) for optimal match with the average annual alternation between good and poor growing conditions. However, neither environmental nor zooplankton seasonal cycles are exactly repetitive year-to-year. Recent analyses of several long zooplankton time series have found large (1-3 months) interannual variability of seasonal timing. In this paper, we compare and synthesize results from these studies. Variability in zooplankton phenology is often correlated with anomalies of one or more environmental variables. The most common phenology correlate is water temperature during and before the growing season, and the most common phenologic response to temperature is “earlier when and where warmer”. But several species with seasonal maxima in late summer or autumn have a clear “later when warmer” response. Covariance of seasonal timing with temperature must therefore involve more than thermal acceleration of physiological rates. We suggest that water temperature (relatively slowly and smoothly varying in aquatic environments) is also used by zooplankton as a timing cue, much as terrestrial biota uses day-length. During recent warming trends, temperature-linked changes in seasonal timing may have moved some species outside their locally-optimal seasonal windows (e.g. Calanus finmarchicus in the North Sea, and Pseudocalanus elongatus in the Adriatic), and have been a major contributor to changes in community composition. Between-location similarities of zooplankton phenology and temperature anomaly time series decay with increasing site-to-site spatial separation. The decorrelation scale is several thousand kilometers in the subarctic Pacific, but a thousand kilometers or less in marginal seas of the NE Atlantic.

  2. Population Genetics: Difference Equation Models

    E-print Network

    Sontag, Eduardo

    Chapter 3 Population Genetics: Difference Equation Models The diversity of life is a fundamental, genetic diversity. The achievements of genetics and molecular biology, as described in Chapter 1, have. The science of genotypic variation in interbreeding populations is called population genetics. Its goal

  3. Zooplankton of West Madagascar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bemiasa, John; Remanevy, Sitraka

    2014-05-01

    During six week survey (August - October 2009) in Western and Northern coast of Madagascar, the R/V 'Dr. Fridtjof Nansen' has carried out a study of the pelagic ecosystem. In collaboration with Agulhas & Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystems project (ASCLME) and South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Project (SWIOFP), the aim of the survey was to establish the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Western Madagascar shelf region as a whole. Zooplankton samples were collected with Hydrobios Multinet at all environmental stations ranging from 200 m depth to the surface. The Multinet was equipped with 5 nets for depth-stratified sampling. The nets were fitted with 180 µm mesh size and the water flow through the nets was measured. The Multinet was deployed and retrieved at a rate of ~ 1.5 m per second and was obliquely hauled. The five nets were triggered at the pre-selected depth intervals 0-25m, 25-50m, 50-80m, 80-120m and 120-200m. All samples were stored in marked bottles and preserved with buffered formaldehyde of 4% for further analysis. As results,the zooplankton abundance was influenced by physico-chemical factors. During the study period 34 Family of zooplankton were identified which are dominated by Copepoda (58,69%) followed by Radiolaria (12,06%), Appendicularia (6,47%), Sagitta (5,11%), Larvae (4,57%), Ostracoda (3,13%), pelagic Foraminifera (2,15%). Family of zooplankton with abundance <1% were also recorded, namely Salpidae (0,94%), Euphausiacea (0,44%), Tintinnidae (0,39%), Annélidae Polychètes (0,34%), Mysidacea (0,21%), Ptéropodae (0,13%). Highest number of zooplankton were found at the depth below the maximum of fluorescence during the day. Copepods distribution depends on site and depth. During this study, the number of identified species is always superior to 50 for all sampling sites. The findings of the present study will help to improve the scientific knowledge of the marine ecosystem of the west coast of Madagascar.

  4. Population and Climate Change:Population and Climate Change: Coupling Population Models withCoupling Population Models with

    E-print Network

    Kalnay, Eugenia

    Coupling Population Models with Earth System ModelsEarth System Models Eugenia Kalnay, Safa Motesharrei, Jorge Rivas Change: Fully Coupling Population and Earth System Models" My research at the U. of Maryland #12

  5. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  6. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  7. Effects of zooplankton availability and foraging mode on cannibalism in three dragonfly larvae

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Frank Johansson

    1992-01-01

    Cannibalism is likely to operate as a form of population control in dragonfly larvae. I performed aquarium experiments to investigate the effect of foraging activity and zooplankton availability on cannibalism in three dragonfly larvae. Large Cordulia aenea larvae showed low activity, and large Leucorrhinia dubia larvae showed high activity irrespective of zooplankton availability. In contrast, large Coenagrion hastulatum larvae changed

  8. Predation-driven dynamics of zooplankton and phytoplankton communities in a whole-lake experiment

    Microsoft Academic Search

    James J. Elser; Stephen R. Carpenter

    1988-01-01

    1. Species compositions of zooplankton and phytoplankton were followed in Tuesday Lake before and after experimental manipulation of its fish populations (addition of piscivorous largemouth bass, removal of planktivorous minnows). Plankton dynamics were compared to those of adjacent, unmanipulated Paul Lake, where piscivorous fish have been dominant historically. 2. Indices of similarity for the zooplankton communities in the two lakes

  9. A Stochastic Population Dynamics Model

    E-print Network

    Givens, Geof H.

    A Stochastic Population Dynamics Model Geof H. Givens \\Lambda April 26, 1999 Abstract be attributed to variation \\Lambda Geof H. Givens is Assistant Professor of Statistics at the Department a minimum calving interval. The model is based on the deterministic model given in Appendix 3, which

  10. Population Explosion: Modeling Phage Growth

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Jean Douthwright (Beloit College; Biology)

    2006-05-20

    How is the relationship between phages and their bacterial hosts like that of predators and prey? How does this relationship differ? What are the factors that contribute to phage production in the cell? What can the phage concentration in a high titer lysate tell us about both of these populations? We can investigate these questions and more with an Excel spreadsheet model for phage growth. * explore a multiple parameter model of population growth in bacteriophages that demonstrates interdependence with the population of bacterial hosts

  11. Influence of a tidal front on zooplankton abundance, assemblages and life histories in Península Valdés, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derisio, Carla; Alemany, Daniela; Acha, Eduardo M.; Mianzan, Hermes

    2014-11-01

    The complex biophysical interactions that occur in Península Valdés tidal front offer an appropriate scenario to study how zooplankton species respond to the environmental setting. In that sense, we studied why some zooplankton assemblages come to dominate in certain areas, focusing on the differential use that each life history stage makes on the hydrodynamic regimes. Environmental data and zooplankton samples were taken across the tidal front, covering well-mixed, frontal and stratified waters. Zooplankton abundance, assemblage structure, specific composition and life histories were analyzed in relation to depth, temperature, stratification level of the water column and chlorophyll a. Zooplankton-specific composition did not vary across the different zones of the front but, due to differences in relative abundance, three assemblages were detected in coincidence with the three zones analyzed. Most zooplankton adult groups and early life stages were related to the stratification level of the water column. This environmental factor best explained the coupling of the three different zooplankton assemblages with the three zones of the frontal system. This distributional pattern was clearly observed in the copepods group. Despite different copepod species prevailing in different parts of the tidal front, the frontal interface appears to be an important breeding area for all copepod species. The stratification level would be the main factor responsible for the zooplankton distributional pattern across the tidal front, although other physical and biological processes, such as transport, retention and life history strategies could be conditioning the establishment of different zooplankton populations in this complex frontal system.

  12. The zooplankton of the north sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fransz, H. G.; Colebrook, J. M.; Gamble, J. C.; Krause, M.

    This review summarizes available knowledge on herbivorous and omnivorous zooplankton of the North Sea. After an introductory chapter on history and general approach of zooplankton studies, the four main contributions review distribution patterns, cycles and trends in temporal variation, trophic interactions and population dyamics and production. The distribution of zooplankton species in relation to hydrography and origin of watermasses is described for copepods. It highlights the influence of Atlantic Ocean influx from the northwest, which to a large extent dominates the species composition and its seasonal variation in the summer-stratified waters. In contrast, the more neritic communities in the southeast region mainly depend on the local populations of the species abundant in coastal mixed waters. The chapter on cycles and trends in temporal variation discusses the differences in seasonal variation with respect to species, area, and community structure in terms of herbivores, omnivores and carnivores. The year-to-year changes are considered as dependent on the overwintering stocks and strategies. Patterns in long-term variation appearing from long-term data series are related to climatic changes, leading to two hypotheses with respect to the effects of changes in wind regime. The chapter on trophic interactions deals with the utilization of primary particulate production by planktonic herbivores and its variation in time and space. Emphasis is put on differences between north and south, which are partly due to differences in species composition, community structure and seasonal variation already discussed in foregoing chapters. The various aspects of copepod grazing are reviewed, but also the role of microzooplankton as both grazers and food organisms is brought to attention. The last chapter deals with population dynamics and production of key species. Seasonal fluctuations in abundance and biomass are discussed and related to underlying population processes and characteristics such as reproduction and life strategy, growth and development, and mortality. Secondary-production estimates inferred from biomass and growth rate estimates are discussed.

  13. Terrorist population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Kaminskiy, Mark P; Ayyub, Bilal M

    2006-06-01

    A system that includes a number of terrorist cells is considered. The cells can consist of one or more terrorists. The current number of terrorist cells is further denoted by N(t), where t is a current time counted from any appropriate origin. The objective is to find the evolution of the system in terms of N(t) and some interpretable parameters, such as the initial number of the terrorist cells N0=N(0), the cell disabling rate constant lambda (or the cell half-life t1/2), and the rate of formation of new cells P. The cost-effectiveness analysis, performed in the framework of the model, reveals that the effectiveness of disabling a terrorist cell is getting worse after 2-3 half-lives of a cell, which shows that if the anti-terrorist actions have not reached their goal during that time, the respective policy should be considered for revision, using the risk assessment consideration. Another important issue raised concerns balancing the efforts related to counterterrorism actions inside the system and the efforts protecting its borders. The respective data analysis is suggested and illustrated using simulated data. PMID:16834631

  14. Body size and food size in freshwater zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Bogdan, K G; Gilbert, J J

    1984-10-01

    We used double-label liquid scintillation techniques to measure the efficiencies with which eight different-sized zooplankton species ingested four cell types relative to a standard cell type (Chlamydomonas). Efficiency ratios (ERs: clearance rate on cell type X / clearance rate on Chlamydomonas) on the three ultraplankton (<5 mum in diameter) cells (a coccoid bacterium and the algae Synechococcus and Nannochloris) varied greatly among zooplankton species but were not correlated with zooplankton body length. Variation in ERs on a much larger (17 x 14 mum) algal cell (Cryptomonas) was only partly explained by zooplankton body length. The eight zooplankton species were classified into three functional groups: (i) species having moderate to high ERs on all ultraplankton (0.4 < ER < 1.6) and ERs on Cryptomonas proportional to their body lengths (Conochilus, Diaphanosoma, and probably Keratella cochlearis and Ceriodaphnia); (ii) species having extremely low ERs on bacteria (mean ER < 0.05), higher but still low ERs on ultraphytoplankton (ER generally < 0.4), and ERs on Cryptomonas proportional to their body lengths (Bosmina, Diaptomus copepodites and adults); (iii) species having extremely low ERs on all ultraplankton (mean ER < 0.05) and ERs on Cryptomonas much higher than expected given their body lengths (Keratella crassa, Polyarthra, and Diaptomus nauplii). These functional groups follow neither taxonomic nor body-length groupings. We conclude that zooplankton body length may influence the maximal particle size a species can ingest but has little influence on the ingestion of smaller particles. Two frequently used models relating zooplankton body size and food size are unrealistic. PMID:16593521

  15. Body size and food size in freshwater zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Bogdan, Kenneth G.; Gilbert, John J.

    1984-01-01

    We used double-label liquid scintillation techniques to measure the efficiencies with which eight different-sized zooplankton species ingested four cell types relative to a standard cell type (Chlamydomonas). Efficiency ratios (ERs: clearance rate on cell type X ÷ clearance rate on Chlamydomonas) on the three ultraplankton (<5 ?m in diameter) cells (a coccoid bacterium and the algae Synechococcus and Nannochloris) varied greatly among zooplankton species but were not correlated with zooplankton body length. Variation in ERs on a much larger (17 × 14 ?m) algal cell (Cryptomonas) was only partly explained by zooplankton body length. The eight zooplankton species were classified into three functional groups: (i) species having moderate to high ERs on all ultraplankton (0.4 < ER < 1.6) and ERs on Cryptomonas proportional to their body lengths (Conochilus, Diaphanosoma, and probably Keratella cochlearis and Ceriodaphnia); (ii) species having extremely low ERs on bacteria (mean ER < 0.05), higher but still low ERs on ultraphytoplankton (ER generally < 0.4), and ERs on Cryptomonas proportional to their body lengths (Bosmina, Diaptomus copepodites and adults); (iii) species having extremely low ERs on all ultraplankton (mean ER < 0.05) and ERs on Cryptomonas much higher than expected given their body lengths (Keratella crassa, Polyarthra, and Diaptomus nauplii). These functional groups follow neither taxonomic nor body-length groupings. We conclude that zooplankton body length may influence the maximal particle size a species can ingest but has little influence on the ingestion of smaller particles. Two frequently used models relating zooplankton body size and food size are unrealistic. PMID:16593521

  16. Advection of zooplankton in an Arctic fjord (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basedow, Sünnje L.; Eiane, Ketil; Tverberg, Vigdis; Spindler, Michael

    2004-05-01

    The aim of this study was to qualify the impact advection has on local populations of planktonic organisms. The study area was Kongsfjorden, an open glacial fjord on the West Coast of Spitsbergen, divided into two basins. On a cruise in May 2001 water masses with different salinity and temperature characteristics were identified from CTD data and sampled for mesozooplankton. Water velocity was measured with a ship-mounted broad band ADCP. Flux of the calanoid copepods Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus glacialis was calculated and based on this advection of zooplankton into the fjord was determined by simulation. The younger copepodite stages were concentrated in surface and subsurface waters and subject to high water velocities. Thus the advective impact on these copepodites was high. Older stages were located deeper in the water column and could maintain their position for a longer time. An eddy was observed in the outer basin and retained zooplankton in the fjord in simulations. The inner basin is likely to be more isolated from the shelf and residence time in this basin is thus probably longer. Calanus finmarchicus was most abundant in the outer basin at the periphery of the eddy and the population in May in Kongsfjorden consisted presumably mainly of individuals advected into the fjord from the surrounding shelf. Calanus glacialis was most abundant in the inner basin and local production there is assumed to exceed advection. Net inflow of zooplankton exceeded outflow during the study period. This impact of zooplankton is probably of high importance for higher trophic levels.

  17. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  18. Omnivorous zooplankton and planktivorous fish

    Microsoft Academic Search

    JOHN L. CONFER; PAMELA I. BLADES

    1975-01-01

    The distance at which Lepomis gibbosus reacts to zooplankton is shown to be a linear fuilction of prey size. If fishes sweep out a cylindrical path as they forage the frequency of prey encountered is then proportional to the square of this reaction distance. With the inclusion of the probability of capture success after a fish pursues a prey, a

  19. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  20. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  1. A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milroy, Scott P.; Dieterle, Dwight A.; He, Ruoying; Kirkpatrick, Gary J.; Lester, Kristen M.; Steidinger, Karen A.; Vargo, Gabriel A.; Walsh, John J.; Weisberg, Robert H.

    2008-01-01

    The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L -1) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2×10 6 cells L -1 in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 ?E m -2 s -1 isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L -1. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS.

  2. Distribution and feeding of Benthosema glaciale in the western Labrador Sea: Fish-zooplankton interaction and the consequence to calanoid copepod populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pepin, Pierre

    2013-05-01

    This study evaluated the distribution of major calanoid copepods in the western Labrador Sea in relation to that of the myctophid Benthosema glaciale, and investigated patterns of prey composition and feeding periodicity by the latter to assess the potential impact of mesopelagic fish on copepod populations that reside in the deep ocean. Hydroacoustic surveys indicated that B. glaciale and the deep-scattering layer are widely distributed throughout the region with limited evidence of patchiness, with an average abundance of 6 fish m-2 and biomass of 9.3 g m-2. There was clear evidence of diurnal variations in feeding activity that was achieved through vertical migration from several hundred meters depths to the surface layer. B. glaciale fed principally on calanoid copepods, with prey size dependent on the length of the fish but the relative variability in prey size was independent of predator length. Average rations were generally less than 1% of body weight per day, and the patterns of diurnal vertical migration by myctophids suggest that individuals fed once every two days rather than daily. The estimated mortality caused by B. glaciale on the calanoid populations, which considers most sources of uncertainty, ranged from 0.002 to 1.8% d-1, with the mid-point of these estimates being ˜0.15% d-1, which is well below the estimated mortality rates of 10-20% d-1 based on vertical life tables. From observations from this and other ecosystems, understanding and contrasting the drivers of population dynamics and productivity of calanoid copepods in different deep basins of the North Atlantic will likely require a more comprehensive characterization of the plankton and pelagic and oceanic fish faunas of the epipelagic and mesopelagic zones and their trophic relationships and interactions.

  3. Resurrecting the ghost of competition past with dormant zooplankton eggs.

    PubMed

    Steiner, Christopher F; Cáceres, Carla E; Smith, Sigrid D P

    2007-03-01

    A common prediction of evolutionary theory is that the strength of interspecific competition should decline over time among sympatric populations of competing species. Here we provide experimental evidence of historical declines in competition effects among competing zooplankton populations. Using diapausing eggs, we resurrected clones of three species of zooplankton obtained from different periods of community assembly in a single lake. We show that clones of Daphnia ambigua obtained from early in assembly when D. ambigua was dominant became extinct in competition with clones of Daphnia pulicaria and Daphnia dentifera (the current lake dominants). In contrast, D. ambigua clones obtained from later in the lake's history experienced weaker competition effects and persisted with D. dentifera. While we cannot rule out the role of intraspecific competition within D. ambigua, our results are in line with the view that natural selection favors reduced interaction strength among co-occurring species, facilitating coexistence and population persistence. PMID:17238127

  4. Instruments and Methods Howw ell does the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) sample zooplankton? A comparison with the Longhurst Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) in the northeast Atlantic

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Anthony J. Richardson; Eurgain H. John; Xabier Irigoien; Roger P. Harris; Graeme C. Hays

    The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has collected data on basin-scale zooplankton abundance in the North Atlantic since the 1930s. These data have been used in many studies to elucidate seasonal patterns and long-term change in plankton populations, as well as more recently to validate ecosystem models. There has, however, been relatively little comparison of the data from the CPR

  5. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  6. Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Zooplankton Community of Phosphorescent Bay, Puerto Rico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rios-Jara, E.

    1998-06-01

    Nocturnal variations of zooplankton abundance and hydrographic conditions were examined at three locations (centre, north shore and south shore) in Phosphorescent Bay, Puerto Rico, from May 1992 through April 1993. Seven taxa accounted for approximately 96% of the annual mean zooplankton abundance: Oithonaspp. (43·5%), Acartia tonsa(31·5%), copepod nauplii (8·8%), Paracalanusspp.(6·7%), gastropod veligers (2·5%), larvaceans (1·7%) and Pseudo-diaptomus cokeri(1·6%). Copepods dominated numerically throughout the year and comprised 94·3% of total zooplankton. Higher abundance of zooplankton (mean±1 SD=252 259±176 797 individuals m -3) was associated with cool water temperatures (24·9-27·4 °C) and dry conditions (0·3-2·9 cm precipitation/month) which prevailed between December and March relative to the period between April and November (warm/wet season) (mean±1 SD=59 773±26 861 individuals m -3), when temperature and precipitation were higher (27·3-30·3 °C, 3·1-20·6 cm month -1). Fluctuations of zooplankton populations, particularly copepods, followed progressive increments in chlorophyll aconcentrations. This abundance pattern was consistent at the three sampling stations. Zooplankton abundance was higher on the north shore of the bay. The taxonomic composition of zooplankton was similar at the sampling stations studied.

  7. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  8. Habitat Heterogeneity Determines Climate Impact on Zooplankton Community Structure and Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Otto, Saskia A.; Diekmann, Rabea; Flinkman, Juha; Kornilovs, Georgs; Möllmann, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting species distribution in space and time and consequently community structure and dynamics is an important issue in ecology, and particularly in climate change research. A crucial factor determining the composition and dynamics of animal populations is habitat heterogeneity, i.e., the number of structural elements in a given locality. In the marine pelagic environment habitat heterogeneity is represented by the distribution of physical oceanographic parameters such as temperature, salinity and oxygen that are closely linked to atmospheric conditions. Little attention has been given, however, to the role of habitat heterogeneity in modulating the response of animal communities to external climate forcing. Here we investigate the long-term dynamics of Acartia spp., Temora longicornis, and Pseudocalanus acuspes, three dominant zooplankton species inhabiting different pelagic habitats in the Central Baltic Sea (CBS). We use the three copepods as indicator species for changes in the CBS zooplankton community and apply non-linear statistical modeling techniques to compare spatial population trends and to identify their drivers. We demonstrate that effects of climate variability and change depend strongly on species-specific habitat utilization, being more direct and pronounced at the upper water layer. We propose that the differential functional response to climate-related drivers in relation to strong habitat segregation is due to alterations of the species’ environmental niches. We stress the importance of understanding how anticipated climate change will affect ecological niches and habitats in order to project spatio-temporal changes in species abundance and distribution. PMID:24614110

  9. Fitting probability models to population dynamics data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Yosef Cohen

    2009-01-01

    Methods for modeling population dynamics in probability using the generalized point process approach are developed. The life history of these populations is such that seasonal reproduction occurs during a short time. Several models are developed and analyzed. Data about two species: colonial spiders (Stegodyphus dumicola) and a migratory bird (wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina) are used to estimate model parameters with

  10. Uncertainty in spatially explicit population models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    E. S. Minor; R. I. McDonald; E. A. Treml; D. L. Urban

    2008-01-01

    Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) are often used in conservation planning. However, confidence intervals around predictions of spatially explicit population models can greatly underestimate model uncertainty. This is partly because some sources of uncertainty are not amenable to the classic methods of uncertainty analysis. Here, we present a method that can be used to include multiple sources of uncertainty into

  11. Density-dependent mortality in an oceanic copepod population.

    PubMed

    Ohman, M D; Hirche, H J

    2001-08-01

    Planktonic copepods are primary consumers in the ocean and are perhaps the most numerous metazoans on earth. Secondary production by these zooplankton supports most food webs of the open sea, directly affecting pelagic fish populations and the biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean. Models of marine ecosystems are quite sensitive to the formulation of the term for zooplankton mortality, although there are few data available to constrain mortality rates in such models. Here we present the first evidence for nonlinear, density-dependent mortality rates of open-ocean zooplankton. A high-frequency time series reveals that per capita mortality rates of eggs of Calanus finmarchicus Gunnerus are a function of the abundance of adult females and juveniles. The temporal dynamics of zooplankton populations can be influenced as much by time-dependent mortality rates as by variations in 'bottom up' forcing. The functional form and rates chosen for zooplankton mortality in ecosystem models can alter the balance of pelagic ecosystems, modify elemental fluxes into the ocean's interior, and modulate interannual variability in pelagic ecosystems. PMID:11493921

  12. Adventures With The Fish Pond: Population Modeling

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    PBS TeacherSource - Math

    2010-01-01

    This activity builds on the population decay M&M activity and will introduce students to recursive equations and uses calculators as an efficient tool for exploring population models. Students will describe what happens to the fish population from one year to another. Each pair of students will have an activity sheet to go along with the activity, and a calculator is needed.

  13. Zooplankton community changes confound the biodilution theory of methylmercury accumulation in a recovering mercury-contaminated lake.

    PubMed

    Todorova, Svetoslava; Driscoll, Charles T; Matthews, David A; Effler, Steven W

    2015-04-01

    In this study, the biodilution hypothesis of methylmercury (MeHg) accumulation was examined in a Hg-contaminated ecosystem that has undergone concurrent changes in nutrient loading and zooplankton community composition. Using a long-term record of 17 years (between 1980 and 2009), we demonstrate that zooplankton MeHg concentrations in Onondaga Lake, NY, are strongly driven by changes in the zooplankton community and body size. MeHg concentrations in zooplankton increased with an increase in body size and biomass. The highest concentrations of MeHg were observed under eutrophic and hypereutrophic conditions when large-bodied Daphnia species, Daphnia pulicaria and Daphnia galeata mendotae, were present. Bioconcentration rather than biodilution was governing the accumulation of MeHg in zooplankton without apparent growth dilution or zooplankton biomass dilution. Algal-bloom dilution controlled the variability in the MeHg concentration only under hypereutrophic conditions when Ceriodaphnia predominated the cladoceran population. Our study demonstrates that changes in zooplankton community composition confound the biodilution theory in Onondaga Lake and that the presence of large-bodied zooplankton species drives elevated MeHg concentrations. PMID:25741879

  14. Modeling wildlife populations with HexSim

    EPA Science Inventory

    HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications including population viability analysis for on...

  15. POPULATION MODELS IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  16. A simulation model of an insect population

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    0000-00-00

    An insect life table simulation developed by Hein Bijlmakers. The above URL gets you to the introduction of the simulation model where various aspects of an insect population dynamics are explained. The link to the simulation brings you to the model itself with a myriad of variables including population development; egg; larval; pupal and adult mortality by parasitoids and predators amongst others. This is a great tool to investigate various aspects of insect population dynamics allowing one to investigate the impact of a number of variables on a population and may help students understand the function of insect life tables. Up to 40 generations can be iterated.

  17. Zooplankton distributions and transport across the northeastern tidal front of Georges Bank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wishner, Karen F.; Outram, Dawn M.; Ullman, David S.

    2006-11-01

    Tidal fronts are important sites of contact and mixing between zooplankton populations on and off Georges Bank in the northwest Atlantic. This study, a component of the US GLOBEC program, examined crossfrontal distributions of zooplankton, especially the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, across the northeastern tidal front of Georges Bank relative to the tidal cycle, frontal structure, flow field, and day/night cycle. A unique feature was a precisely executed sampling strategy designed to isolate spatial, tidal, and day/night effects. Vertically stratified zooplankton sampling was done along tidally coordinated crossfrontal transects and during time series studies at specific locations. Zooplankton taxa differed in their spatial and vertical distributions relative to the front and the hydrographic structure of the water column. There were significant associations between zooplankton assemblages and spatial location, depth, and water mass. Zooplankton distributions generally tracked water masses but usually showed crossbank abundance gradients. Consistent differences between day and night distributions were not apparent for most taxa. Meroplankton (larvae of benthic animals) were derived primarily from onbank populations. The zooplankton community was advected with the tidal flow. Crossfrontal distributions characteristic of onbank and offbank flow regimes clearly differentiated tidal phases and interacted with the flow field and topography. Salinity (a proxy for water mass) and depth interacted in controlling vertical distributions. As tidal forcing sloshed water masses up and down the bank slope, some taxa followed isohalines through depth changes while other taxa maintained themselves within a relatively limited depth or salinity regime. Surface convergence and downwelling, tidal upwelling of bottom water, and mid-depth tidal pumping influenced crossfrontal exchange.

  18. Next Generation Sequencing Reveals the Hidden Diversity of Zooplankton Assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Harmer, Rachel A.; Somerfield, Paul J.; Atkinson, Angus

    2013-01-01

    Background Zooplankton play an important role in our oceans, in biogeochemical cycling and providing a food source for commercially important fish larvae. However, difficulties in correctly identifying zooplankton hinder our understanding of their roles in marine ecosystem functioning, and can prevent detection of long term changes in their community structure. The advent of massively parallel next generation sequencing technology allows DNA sequence data to be recovered directly from whole community samples. Here we assess the ability of such sequencing to quantify richness and diversity of a mixed zooplankton assemblage from a productive time series site in the Western English Channel. Methodology/Principle Findings Plankton net hauls (200 µm) were taken at the Western Channel Observatory station L4 in September 2010 and January 2011. These samples were analysed by microscopy and metagenetic analysis of the 18S nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene using the 454 pyrosequencing platform. Following quality control a total of 419,041 sequences were obtained for all samples. The sequences clustered into 205 operational taxonomic units using a 97% similarity cut-off. Allocation of taxonomy by comparison with the National Centre for Biotechnology Information database identified 135 OTUs to species level, 11 to genus level and 1 to order, <2.5% of sequences were classified as unknowns. By comparison a skilled microscopic analyst was able to routinely enumerate only 58 taxonomic groups. Conclusions Metagenetics reveals a previously hidden taxonomic richness, especially for Copepoda and hard-to-identify meroplankton such as Bivalvia, Gastropoda and Polychaeta. It also reveals rare species and parasites. We conclude that Next Generation Sequencing of 18S amplicons is a powerful tool for elucidating the true diversity and species richness of zooplankton communities. While this approach allows for broad diversity assessments of plankton it may become increasingly attractive in future if sequence reference libraries of accurately identified individuals are better populated. PMID:24244737

  19. Age-structured Population Model with Cannibalism

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mohammed El-doma

    2007-01-01

    An age-structured population model with cannibalism is investigated. We determine the steady states and study the local asymptotic stability as well as the global stability. The results in this paper generalize previous results.

  20. Melatonin Signaling Controls Circadian Swimming Behavior in Marine Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Tosches, Maria Antonietta; Bucher, Daniel; Vopalensky, Pavel; Arendt, Detlev

    2014-01-01

    Summary Melatonin, the “hormone of darkness,” is a key regulator of vertebrate circadian physiology and behavior. Despite its ubiquitous presence in Metazoa, the function of melatonin signaling outside vertebrates is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the effect of melatonin signaling on circadian swimming behavior in a zooplankton model, the marine annelid Platynereis dumerilii. We find that melatonin is produced in brain photoreceptors with a vertebrate-type opsin-based phototransduction cascade and a light-entrained clock. Melatonin released at night induces rhythmic burst firing of cholinergic neurons that innervate locomotor-ciliated cells. This establishes a nocturnal behavioral state by modulating the length and the frequency of ciliary arrests. Based on our findings, we propose that melatonin signaling plays a role in the circadian control of ciliary swimming to adjust the vertical position of zooplankton in response to ambient light. PMID:25259919

  1. Population-expression models of immune response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stromberg, Sean P.; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-06-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable.

  2. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  3. EFFECTS OF CHRONIC STRESS ON WILDLIFE POPULATIONS: A POPULATION MODELING APPROACH AND CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter describes a matrix modeling approach to characterize and project risks to wildlife populations subject to chronic stress. Population matrix modeling was used to estimate effects of one class of environmental contaminants, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs), to populations ...

  4. The interplay between colonization history and gene flow in passively dispersing zooplankton: microsatellite analysis of rotifer resting egg banks

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. Gomez; G. J. Adcock; D. H. Lunt; G. R. Carvalho

    2002-01-01

    Zooplanktonic organisms that disperse passively as diapausing eggs often exhibit surprisingly strong population subdivision given their high coloniza- tion ability. Here we attempt to disentangle the impacts of colonization history and gene flow on these organisms by studying the population genetic structure of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis. The resting egg banks of B. plicatilis in fourteen salt lake populations in

  5. Modelling social dynamics of a structured population.

    E-print Network

    Primicerio, Mario

    and attractivity of crime1 . In [16] and [15] one of such quantities was identified as the "social class". More the transition to a social class not adjacent is forbidden. In this perspective if we consider for simplicityModelling social dynamics of a structured population. Abstract We present a model for the dynamics

  6. A model for mutation in bacterial populations

    E-print Network

    R. Donangelo; H. Fort

    2002-06-13

    We describe the evolution of $E.coli$ populations through a Bak-Sneppen type model which incorporates random mutations. We show that, for a value of the mutation level which coincides with the one estimated from experiments, this model reproduces the measures of mean fitness relative to that of a common ancestor, performed for over 10,000 bacterial generations.

  7. PM POPULATION EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The overall objective of this study is the development of a refined probabilistic exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) suitable for predicting PM10 and PM2.5 population exposures. This modeling research will be conducted both in-house by EPA scientists and through...

  8. Expanding clinical applications of population pharmacodynamic modelling

    PubMed Central

    Minto, Charles; Schnider, Thomas

    1998-01-01

    Population pharmacokinetics or pharmacodynamics is the study of the variability in drug concentration or pharmacological effect between individuals when standard dosage regimens are administered. We provide an overview of pharmacokinetic models, pharmacodynamic models, population models and residual error models. We outline how population modelling approaches seek to explain interpatient variability with covariate analysis, and, in some approaches, to characterize the unexplained interindividual variability. The interpretation of the results of population modelling approaches is facilitated by shifting the emphasis from the perspective of the modeller to the perspective of the clinician. Both the explained and unexplained interpatient variability should be presented in terms of their impact on the dose–response relationship. Clinically relevant questions relating to the explained and unexplained variability in the population can be posed to the model, and confidence intervals can be obtained for the fraction of the population that is estimated to fall within a specific therapeutic range given a certain dosing regimen. Such forecasting can be used to develop optimal initial dosing guidelines. The development of population models (with random effects) permits the application of Bayes’s formula to obtain improved estimates of an individual’s pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters in the light of observed responses. An important challenge to clinical pharmacology is to identify the drugs that might benefit from such adaptive-control-with-feedback dosing strategies. Drugs used for life threatening diseases with a proven pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationship, a small therapeutic range, large interindividual variability, small interoccasion variability and severe adverse effects are likely to be good candidates. Rapidly evolving changes in health care economics and consumer expectations make it unlikely that traditional drug development approaches will succeed in the future. A shift away from the narrow focus on rejecting the null hypothesis towards a broader focus on seeking to understand the factors that influence the dose–response relationship—together with the development of the next generation of software based on population models—should permit a more efficient and rational drug development programme. PMID:9803979

  9. Speciation patterns and processes in the zooplankton of the ancient lakes of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Vaillant, James J; Bock, Dan G; Haffner, G Douglas; Cristescu, Melania E

    2013-01-01

    Although studies of ancient lake fauna have provided important insights about speciation patterns and processes of organisms in heterogeneous benthic environments, evolutionary forces responsible for speciation in the relatively homogenous planktonic environment remain largely unexplored. In this study, we investigate possible mechanisms of speciation in zooplankton using the freshwater diaptomids of the ancient lakes of Sulawesi, Indonesia, as a model system. We integrate phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial and nuclear genes with morphological and genome size data. Overall, our results support the conclusion that colonization order and local adaptation are dominant at the large, island scale, whereas at local and intralacustrine scales, speciation processes are regulated by gene flow among genetically differentiated and locally adapted populations. In the Malili lakes, the diaptomid populations are homogenous at nuclear loci, but show two highly divergent mitochondrial clades that are geographically restricted to single lakes despite the interconnectivity of the lake systems. Our study, based on coalescent simulations and population genetic analyses, indicates that unidirectional hybridization allows gene flow across the nuclear genome, but prevents the introgression of mitochondria into downstream populations. We suggest that hybridization and introgression between young lineages is a significant evolutionary force in freshwater plankton. PMID:24101996

  10. How well does the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) sample zooplankton? A comparison with the Longhurst Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) in the northeast Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; John, Eurgain H.; Irigoien, Xabier; Harris, Roger P.; Hays, Graeme C.

    2004-09-01

    The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has collected data on basin-scale zooplankton abundance in the North Atlantic since the 1930s. These data have been used in many studies to elucidate seasonal patterns and long-term change in plankton populations, as well as more recently to validate ecosystem models. There has, however, been relatively little comparison of the data from the CPR with that from other samplers. In this study we compare zooplankton abundance estimated from the CPR in the northeast Atlantic with near-surface samples collected by a Longhurst-Hardy Plankton Recorder (LHPR) at Ocean Weather Station India (59°N, 19°W) between 1971 and 1975. Comparisons were made for six common copepods in the region: Acartia clausi, Calanus finmarchicus, Euchaeta norvegica, Metridia lucens, Oithona sp., and Pleuromamma robusta. Seasonal cycles based on CPR data were similar to those recorded by the LHPR. Differences in absolute abundances were apparent, however, with the CPR underestimating abundances by a factor of between 5 and 40, with the exception of A. clausi. Active avoidance by zooplankton is thought to be responsible. This avoidance is species specific, so that care must be taken describing communities, as the CPR emphasises those species that are preferentially caught, a problem common to many plankton samplers.

  11. Spatial uncertainty analysis of population models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta [ORNL; King, Anthony Wayne [ORNL; Schumaker, Nathan [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR; Ashwood, Tom L [ORNL; Jackson, Barbara L [ORNL

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for conducting spatial uncertainty analysis of spatial population models, and illustrates the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial population models typically simulate birth, death, and migration on an input map that describes habitat. Typically, only a single reference map is available, but we can imagine that a collection of other, slightly different, maps could be drawn to represent a particular species' habitat. As a first approximation, our approach assumes that spatial uncertainty (i.e., the variation among values assigned to a location by such a collection of maps) is constrained by characteristics of the reference map, regardless of how the map was produced. Our approach produces lower levels of uncertainty than alternative methods used in landscape ecology because we condition our alternative landscapes on local properties of the reference map. Simulated spatial uncertainty was higher near the borders of patches. Consequently, average uncertainty was highest for reference maps with equal proportions of suitable and unsuitable habitat, and no spatial autocorrelation. We used two population viability models to evaluate the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial uncertainty produced larger variation among predictions of a spatially explicit model than those of a spatially implicit model. Spatially explicit model predictions of final female population size varied most among landscapes with enough clustered habitat to allow persistence. In contrast, predictions of population growth rate varied most among landscapes with only enough clustered habitat to support a small population, i.e., near a spatially mediated extinction threshold. We conclude that spatial uncertainty has the greatest effect on persistence when the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat are such that habitat capacity is near the minimum required for persistence.

  12. A Population Model of Integrative Cardiovascular Physiology

    PubMed Central

    Pruett, William A.; Husband, Leland D.; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G.; Hester, Robert L.

    2013-01-01

    We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546

  13. Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

    2011-01-01

    An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a fisher probability of occurrence model. The fisher occurrence model was selected

  14. An approach for modelling populations with continuous structured models

    SciTech Connect

    Hallam, T.G. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA). Dept. of Mathematics); Lassiter, R.R. (Environmental Protection Agency, Athens, GA (USA). Environmental Research Lab.); Li, Jia (Los Alamos National Lab., NM (USA)); McKinney, W. (North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (USA). Dept. of Mathematics)

    1990-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is to describe the formulation of an appropriate mathematical representation of a population based on physiological attributes relevant to the individual species considered and to the problem under investigation. There are two main parts of the article. The first discusses the relationship between model hypotheses and model conclusions. We will discuss some problems of applicability that arise from employing classical age or size structured models as representations of a population. We describe certain properties of the dynamic behavior of these continuous, structured populations to demonstrate that it is often necessary to include additional physiological variables other than just age and size if one wishes to obtain biologically realistic deterministic population dynamics. We apply the method of characteristics for solving hyperbolic partial differential equations to the population model and discuss problems of interpretation. The second part of the article focuses on the computation of solutions of physiologically structured models. Here we will indicate the motivation and describe the protocol for formulating a dynamic population that was employed in an investigation of effects of toxic chemicals on aquatic populations. Illustrations of the numerical solution of the population model are presented. The protocol is presented because it is generic and the approach seems to be applicable with modification to many environments. 26 refs., 6 figs.

  15. The link between environmental variation and evolutionary shifts in dormancy in zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Matthew R

    2013-10-01

    Sex and dormancy are intertwined in organisms that engage in asexual and sexual reproduction. The transition between asexual and sexual reproduction typically results in a dormant stage that provides a mechanism for persisting under harsh environmental conditions. For example, many zooplankton engage in sexual reproduction when environmental conditions deteriorate and produce resting eggs that remain viable for decades. It has long been assumed that observed variation in the timing and magnitude of investment into a dormant stage among populations or species reflects local environmental conditions. Yet, the importance of dormancy for the persistence of a given population can differ dramatically among habitats (i.e., permanent vs. seasonal ponds). As a result, environmental conditions may exert selection on the propensity for zooplankton to engage in sexual reproduction and enter dormancy in natural populations. Here, I highlight a growing body of research illustrating an important link between environmental conditions and divergent reproductive strategies in zooplankton. I specifically: (1) review the environmental cues that initiate a transition between asexual and sexual reproduction in zooplankton and (2) describe recent work demonstrating an evolutionary consequence of ecological selective pressures, such as predation and habitat predictability, on variation in the extent to which organisms engage in sex and enter dormancy. Such results have implications for the genetics and ecology of these organisms. PMID:23630969

  16. LIMNETIC ZOOPLANKTON OF LAKES IN KATMAI NATIONAL MONUMENT, ALASKA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The limnetic zooplankton in lakes of the Naknek River system in southwestern Alaska was sampled extensively during 1962-63. The numerically dominant forms of limnetic zooplankton were Diaptomus, Cyclops, Daphnia, Bosmina, coregoni, Kellicotia, and Conochilus. Some littoral and be...

  17. Food sources and lipid retention of zooplankton in subarctic ponds

    E-print Network

    Vincent, Warwick F.

    acids (PUFA), most notably docosahexaenoic acid and arachidonic acid. 3. Zooplankton had higher PUFA.9 lg mg)1 ), indicating that zooplankton metabolically regulate their accumulation of PUFA. In addition

  18. Material properties of zooplankton and nekton from the California current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, Kaylyn

    This study measured the material properties of zooplankton, Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas), and two species of myctophids (Symbolophorus californiensis and Diaphus theta) collected from the California Current ecosystem. The density contrast (g) was measured for euphausiids, decapods (Sergestes similis), amphipods (Primno macropa, Phronima sp., and Hyperiid spp.), siphonophore bracts, chaetognaths, larval fish, crab megalopae, larval squid, and medusae. Morphometric data (length, width, and height) were collected for these taxa. Density contrasts varied within and between zooplankton taxa. The mean and standard deviation for euphausiid density contrast were 1.059 +/- 0.009. Relationships between zooplankton density contrast and morphometric measurements, geographic location, and environmental conditions were investigated. Site had a significant effect on euphausiid density contrast. Density contrasts of euphausiids collected in the same geographic area approximately 4-10 days apart were significantly higher (p < 0.001). Sound speed contrast (h) was measured for euphausiids and pelagic decapods (S. similis) and it varied between taxa. The mean and standard deviation for euphausiid sound speed were 1.019 +/- 0.009. Euphausiid mass was calculated from density measurements and volume, and a relationship between euphausiid mass and length was produced. We determined that euphausiid from volumes could be accurately estimated two dimensional measurements of animal body shape, and that biomass (or biovolume) could be accurately calculated from digital photographs of animals. Density contrast (g) was measured for zooplankton, pieces of hake flesh, myctophid flesh, and of the following Humboldt squid body parts: mantle, arms, tentacle, braincase, eyes, pen, and beak. The density contrasts varied within and between fish taxa, as well as among squid body parts. Effects of animal length and environmental conditions on nekton density contrast were investigated. The sound speed contrast (h) was measured for Pacific hake flesh, myctophid flesh, Humboldt squid mantle, and Humboldt squid braincase. Sound speed varied within and between nekton taxa. The material properties reported in this study can be used to improve target strength estimates from acoustic scattering models which would increase the accuracy of biomass estimates from acoustic surveys for these zooplankton and nekton.

  19. BAYESIAN POPULATION DYNAMICS MODELING USING UNCERTAIN HISTORICAL

    E-print Network

    Givens, Geof H.

    , AND BIOLOGICAL PRIORS GEOF H. GIVENS, Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 and web contact via http://www.colostate.edu/~geof. 1 #12; Bayesian population dynamics modeling \\Delta Givens 2 The stock was also subject to a severe commercial harvest when it was discovered in 1848

  20. Model of phenotypic evolution in hermaphroditic populations.

    PubMed

    Rudnicki, Ryszard; Zwole?ski, Pawe?

    2015-05-01

    We consider an individual based model of phenotypic evolution in hermaphroditic populations which includes random and assortative mating of individuals. By increasing the number of individuals to infinity we obtain a nonlinear transport equation, which describes the evolution of phenotypic distribution. The main result of the paper is a theorem on asymptotic stability of trait distribution. This theorem is applied to models with the offspring trait distribution given by additive and multiplicative random perturbations of the parental mean trait. PMID:24832543

  1. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  2. Population Coding of Visual Space: Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Lehky, Sidney R.; Sereno, Anne B.

    2011-01-01

    We examine how the representation of space is affected by receptive field (RF) characteristics of the encoding population. Spatial responses were defined by overlapping Gaussian RFs. These responses were analyzed using multidimensional scaling to extract the representation of global space implicit in population activity. Spatial representations were based purely on firing rates, which were not labeled with RF characteristics (tuning curve peak location, for example), differentiating this approach from many other population coding models. Because responses were unlabeled, this model represents space using intrinsic coding, extracting relative positions amongst stimuli, rather than extrinsic coding where known RF characteristics provide a reference frame for extracting absolute positions. Two parameters were particularly important: RF diameter and RF dispersion, where dispersion indicates how broadly RF centers are spread out from the fovea. For large RFs, the model was able to form metrically accurate representations of physical space on low-dimensional manifolds embedded within the high-dimensional neural population response space, suggesting that in some cases the neural representation of space may be dimensionally isomorphic with 3D physical space. Smaller RF sizes degraded and distorted the spatial representation, with the smallest RF sizes (present in early visual areas) being unable to recover even a topologically consistent rendition of space on low-dimensional manifolds. Finally, although positional invariance of stimulus responses has long been associated with large RFs in object recognition models, we found RF dispersion rather than RF diameter to be the critical parameter. In fact, at a population level, the modeling suggests that higher ventral stream areas with highly restricted RF dispersion would be unable to achieve positionally-invariant representations beyond this narrow region around fixation. PMID:21344012

  3. The nk model and population genetics.

    PubMed

    Welch, John J; Waxman, David

    2005-06-01

    The nk model of fitness interactions is examined. This model has been used by previous authors to investigate the effects of fitness epistasis on substitution dynamics in molecular evolution, and to make broader claims about the importance of epistasis. To examine these claims, an infinite-allele approximation is introduced. In this limit, it is shown that the nk model is, at an appropriate level of description, formally identical to the non-epistatic House-of-Cards model--a well-studied model in theoretical population genetics. It is further shown that in many parameter regimes, the analytical results obtained from this infinite-allele approximation are very close to results from the full nk model (with a finite number of alleles per locus). The findings presented shed light on a number of previous results. PMID:15784268

  4. Regulation of Mnemiopsis leidyi dynamics by potential changes in temperature and zooplankton conditions in the Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salihoglu, B.; Fach, B.; Oguz, T.

    2009-04-01

    Providing a comprehensive understanding of the effects that cause formations of ctenophore blooms in the Black Sea is the main objective of this study. In order to analyse ctenophore dynamics in the Black Sea a zero-dimensional population based model of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi is developed. The stage resolving ctenophore model combines the modified form of stage resolving approach of Fennel, 2001 with the growth dynamics model of Kremer, 1976; Kremer and Reeve, 1989 under 4 stages of model-ctenophore. These stages include the different growth characteristics of egg, juvenile, transitional and adult stages. The dietary patterns of the different stages follows the observations obtained from the literature. The model is able to represent consistent development patterns, while reflecting the physiological complexity of a population of Mnemiopsis leidyi. Model results suggest that different nutritional requirement of each stage may serve as the bottlenecks for population growth and only when growth conditions are favorable for both larval and lobate stages, the high overall population growth rates may occur. Model is also used to analyse the influence of climatic changes on Mnemiopsis leidyi reproduction and outburst. This study presents and discussed how potential changes in temperature and zooplankton conditions in the Black Sea may regulate Mnemiopsis leidyi dynamics.

  5. Inferences from Genomic Models in Stratified Populations

    PubMed Central

    Janss, Luc; de los Campos, Gustavo; Sheehan, Nuala; Sorensen, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Unaccounted population stratification can lead to spurious associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and in this context several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. An alternative line of research uses whole-genome random regression (WGRR) models that fit all markers simultaneously. Important objectives in WGRR studies are to estimate the proportion of variance accounted for by the markers, the effect of individual markers, prediction of genetic values for complex traits, and prediction of genetic risk of diseases. Proposals to account for stratification in this context are unsatisfactory. Here we address this problem and describe a reparameterization of a WGRR model, based on an eigenvalue decomposition, for simultaneous inference of parameters and unobserved population structure. This allows estimation of genomic parameters with and without inclusion of marker-derived eigenvectors that account for stratification. The method is illustrated with grain yield in wheat typed for 1279 genetic markers, and with height, HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure from the British 1958 cohort study typed for 1 million SNP genotypes. Both sets of data show signs of population structure but with different consequences on inferences. The method is compared to an advocated approach consisting of including eigenvectors as fixed-effect covariates in a WGRR model. We show that this approach, used in the context of WGRR models, is ill posed and illustrate the advantages of the proposed model. In summary, our method permits a unified approach to the study of population structure and inference of parameters, is computationally efficient, and is easy to implement. PMID:22813891

  6. USING POPULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE RISK IN POPULATION OF BIRDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Wildlife populations are exposed to varying habitat structure and quality, as well as an array of human-induced environmental stressors. Predicting the consequences to a real population of one perturbation (e.g. a pesticide application) without considering other human activities ...

  7. Population Models for Massive Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Young-Wook; Joo, Seok-Joo; Han, Sang-Il; Na, Chongsam; Lim, Dongwook; Roh, Dong-Goo

    2015-03-01

    Increasing number of massive globular clusters (GCs) in the Milky Way are now turned out to host multiple stellar populations having different heavy element abundances enriched by supernovae. Recent observations have further shown that [CNO/Fe] is also enhanced in metal-rich subpopulations in most of these GCs, including ? Cen and M22 (Marino et al. 2011, 2012). In order to reflect this in our population modeling, we have expanded the parameter space of Y 2 isochrones and horizontal-branch (HB) evolutionary tracks to include the cases of normal and enhanced nitrogen abundances ([N/Fe] = 0.0, 0.8, and 1.6). The observed variations in the total CNO content were reproduced by interpolating these nitrogen enhanced stellar models. Our test simulations with varying N and O abundances show that, once the total CNO sum ([CNO/Fe]) is held constant, both N and O have almost identical effects on the HR diagram (see Fig. 1).

  8. Population models of low-mass binaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolb, Ulrich

    2014-09-01

    I review the current understanding of the formation and evolutionary history of binaries with low-mass companions, focusing on systems that contain a white dwarf, or a component that will evolve into a white dwarf. I will highlight the potential and pitfalls of binary catalogues emerging from exoplanet transit searches, and review the state of the art of population models for low-mass binaries.

  9. SIMULATING TEMPORAL VARIATIONS IN NUTRIENT, PHYTOPLANKTON, AND ZOOPLANKTON ON THE INNER OREGON SHELF

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this study is to use a numerical model to examine the linkages between physical processes and temporal variability in the plankton dynamics in a coastal upwelling system. We used a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model coupled to a two-dimensional circulation...

  10. Exploring Physical and Biological Mechanisms for Zooplankton Retention in the Estuarine Transition Zone of a Riverine Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simons, R. D.; Monismith, S. G.

    2002-12-01

    In this study, we use a coupled three-dimensional physical-biological model to investigate zooplankton retention in the estuarine transition zone (ETZ) of the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE). Varying from well-mixed to partially stratified, the hydrodynamic environment of the SLE is defined by a large tidal range, strong salinity gradients, a large freshwater river flow, and complex bathymetry. The physical-biological model used for this study consisted of two parts: a circulation model and a zooplankton transport model. The circulation model is a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrodynamic model (TRIM3D) driven by the wind, tides, and freshwater outflow. The zooplankton transport model is a three-dimensional Lagrangian particle tracking model which simulates zooplankton movement using velocity fields derived from the three-dimensional circulation model. The circulation model is calibrated using field data such as salinity, pressure, and current time series from different locations in the ETZ. The transport and distribution of three zooplankton taxa, non-native zebra mussel veligers, resident mysids, and larval smelt, were simulated for this study. By simulating these three taxa, we were able to investigate the effect of a range of swimming speeds on zooplankton retention in the ETZ. We present the results of simulations exploring the efficiency of tidal vertical migration, a commonly described biological retention mechanism that is characterized by zooplankton migration up to the surface on flood and down to the bottom on ebb. Tidal vertical migration, also known as selective tidal stream transport, was investigated for several swimming speeds and endogenous rhythms.

  11. SENSITIVITY OF ZOOPLANKTON INDICATORS IN REGIONAL MONITORING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study describes an approach for assessing and selecting ecological indicators for regional monitoring of northeastern US lakes. We analyze the components of variance for indicators of zooplankton richness and abundance in the context of the spatial and temporal sampling des...

  12. Bacteria dispersal by hitchhiking on zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Grossart, Hans-Peter; Dziallas, Claudia; Leunert, Franziska; Tang, Kam W.

    2010-01-01

    Microorganisms and zooplankton are both important components of aquatic food webs. Although both inhabit the same environment, they are often regarded as separate functional units that are indirectly connected through nutrient cycling and trophic cascade. However, research on pathogenic and nonpathogenic bacteria has shown that direct association with zooplankton has significant influences on the bacteria's physiology and ecology. We used stratified migration columns to study vertical dispersal of hitchhiking bacteria through migrating zooplankton across a density gradient that was otherwise impenetrable for bacteria in both upward and downward directions (conveyor-belt hypothesis). The strength of our experiments is to permit quantitative estimation of transport and release of associated bacteria: vertical migration of Daphnia magna yielded an average dispersal rate of 1.3 × 105·cells·Daphnia?1·migration cycle?1 for the lake bacterium Brevundimonas sp. Bidirectional vertical dispersal by migrating D. magna was also shown for two other bacterial species, albeit at lower rates. The prediction that diurnally migrating zooplankton acquire different attached bacterial communities from hypolimnion and epilimnion between day and night was subsequently confirmed in our field study. In mesotrophic Lake Nehmitz, D. hyalina showed pronounced diel vertical migration along with significant diurnal changes in attached bacterial community composition. These results confirm that hitchhiking on migrating animals can be an important mechanism for rapidly relocating microorganisms, including pathogens, allowing them to access otherwise inaccessible resources. PMID:20547852

  13. Introduction The zooplankton community occupies a central

    E-print Network

    New Hampshire, University of

    of introduced marine alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in Pawtuckaway Lake, New Hampshire Jessica V. Trout during the summer, 2005 to evaluate the lake water quality and planktonic communi- ties in Pawtuckaway zooplankton may at times control the phytoplankton abundance in Pawtuckaway Lake. The small body size

  14. Cyanobacterial chemical warfare affects zooplankton community composition

    Microsoft Academic Search

    LARS-ANDERS HANSSON; SUSANNE GUSTAFSSON; KARIN RENGEFORS; LINA BOMARK

    2007-01-01

    SUMMARY 1. Toxic algal blooms widely affect our use of water resources both with respect to drinking water and recreation. However, it is not only humans, but also organisms living in freshwater and marine ecosystems that may be affected by algal toxins. 2. In order to assess if cyanobacterial toxins affect the composition of natural zooplankton communities, we quantified the

  15. Avoidance of strobe lights by zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Martin J. Hamel; Nathan S. Richards; Michael L. Brown; Steven R. Chipps

    2010-01-01

    Underwater strobe lights can influence the behavior and distribution of fishes and are increasingly used as a technique to divert fish away from water intake structures on dams. However, few studies examine how strobe lights may affect organisms other than targeted species. To gain insight on strobe lighting effects on nontarget invertebrates, we investigated whether underwater strobe lights influence zooplankton

  16. Pressurizing System for Observation of Marine Zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. Yoshiki; A. Shimizu; T. Toda

    2007-01-01

    Planktonic animals occur from the surface to the sea bottom and they are exposed to hydrostatic pressure throughout their lifetime. A hydrostatic pressure apparatus integrating ideas of past apparatuses was developed to investigate effects of hydrostatic pressure on marine zooplankton. The pressure apparatus system is composed of a peristaltic pump, a pressure chamber, a specimen holder which is placed in

  17. Collection and Culture Techniques for Gelatinous Zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    KEVIN A. RASKOFF; FREYA A. SOMMER; WILLIAM M. HAMNER; KATRINA M. CROSS

    2003-01-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton are the least under- stood of all planktonic animal groups. This is partly due to their fragility, which typically precludes the capture of intact specimens with nets or trawls. Specialized tools and techniques have been developed that allow researchers and aquarists to collect intact gelatinous animals at sea and to maintain many of these alive in the laboratory.

  18. Zooplankton succession in fingerling production ponds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many pond cultured species require a range of zooplankton species for consumption before they can be weaned onto manufactured feed. The widest variety of plankton species develops when empty ponds are filled and fertilized. Use of organic and inorganic fertilizers facilitates the development of ba...

  19. Element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    I review the implementation of the effects from varying chemical element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling, focusing on ?- and Fe-peak elements. A brief overview of the development of such models over the past 30 years is provided, starting with early work on the identification of relevant absorption features in the spectra of early-type galaxies in the 1980s leading to the most recent developments of the past years. Recent highlights include the adoption of new flux calibrated libraries, the inclusion of a wide range of chemical elements, the calculation of error estimates on the model, and the consideration of element variation effects on full spectra. The calibration of such models with globular clusters and some key results on the element ratios measured in early-type galaxies are presented.

  20. A Mesoscale Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    ' & $ % A Mesoscale Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Towson University Judith R. Miller Georgetown University 1 #12;A mesoscale diffusion model in population genetics diffusion model in population genetics with dynamic fitness ' & $ % The Discrete Model · Let the fraction

  1. Mathematics and physics Biology Modelling a population Immunology Modelling T cell immunology

    E-print Network

    Wirosoetisno, Djoko

    Mathematics and physics Biology Modelling a population Immunology Modelling T cell immunology;Mathematics and physics Biology Modelling a population Immunology Mathematics is a special science! #12;Mathematics and physics Biology Modelling a population Immunology Classical mechanics (Newton) Figure

  2. Correlations between zooplankton assemblages and environmental factors in the downtown rivers of Shanghai, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Na; Li, Erchao; Feng, Dexiang; Xiao, Baicai; Wei, Chaoqun; Zhang, Meiling; Chen, Liqiao

    2014-11-01

    Most urban rivers play an important role in urban flood control and drainage in China, but pollution is fast becoming an issue of greater importance in water management. In this study, 63 zooplankton species were recorded in four downtown rivers in Shanghai between November 2007 and October 2008. Of these, 44 species belonged to the Rotifera, 13 to Cladocera, and six to Copepoda. The three most frequently occurring zooplankton ( Brachionus calyciflorus, Microcyclops leuckarti, and Asplanchna priodonta) accounted for 80.00%, 76.84%, and 53.68%, respectively. Rotifera were found to be dominant, comprising 86.26% of total zooplankton, while cladoceran and copepod abundance amounted to 5.08% and 8.67%, respectively. Water temperature, salinity, electrical conductivity, and total nitrogen were of the greatest significance in the occurrence of zooplankton. Two species ( Schmackeria forbesi and Lepadella ovalis) were notably more sensitive to environmental factors such as salinity and electrical conductivity than other species. The population size and community were inversely correlated with the increasing nutrient levels of the four rivers, suggesting that the water quality of the four rivers had been gradually recovering from a severe eutrophic state and that water conditions of the rivers had been gradually improved.

  3. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  4. UV radiation and freshwater zooplankton: damage, protection and recovery

    PubMed Central

    Rautio, Milla; Tartarotti, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    While many laboratory and field studies show that zooplankton are negatively affected when exposed to high intensities of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), most studies also indicate that zooplankton are well adapted to cope with large variations in their UVR exposure in the pelagic zone of lakes. The response mechanisms of zooplankton are diverse and efficient and may explain the success and richness of freshwater zooplankton in optically variable waters. While no single behavioural or physiological protection mechanism seems to be superior, and while several unexplained and contradictory patterns exist in zooplankton UVR ecology, recent increases in our understanding are consistent with UVR playing an important role for zooplankton. This review examines the variability in freshwater zooplankton responses to UVR, with a focus on crustacean zooplankton (Cladocera and Copepoda). We present an overview of UVR-induced damages, and the protection and recovery mechanisms freshwater zooplankton use when exposed to UVR. We review the current knowledge of UVR impact on freshwater zooplankton at species and community levels, and discuss briefly how global change over the last three decades has influenced the UVR milieu in lakes. PMID:21516254

  5. Detrital feeding in natural zooplankton communities: Discrimination between live and dead algal foods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Peter L. Starkweather; Kenneth G. Bogdan

    1980-01-01

    Freshwater zooplankton species differ in their consumption of live and dead algal cells when tested in situ. Using isotopically-labeled living and heat-killed Chlamydomonas reinhardti as models for phytoplankton and detrital seston, respectively, we tested differential feeding on these foods by 3 rotifers and 2 microcrustaceans. Keratella cochlearis selectively feeds on ‘detrital’ materials while 2 sympatric rotifer species, Conochilus dossuarius and

  6. A conceptual mathematical model of the aquatic communities of lakes Naroch and Myastro (Belarus)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. B. Medvinsky; A. V. Rusakov; A. E. Bobyrev; V. A. Burmensky; A. E. Kriksunov; N. I. Nurieva; M. M. Gonik

    2009-01-01

    A conceptual mathematical model of the dynamics of fish and zooplankton (rotifer) populations of connected lakes Naroch and\\u000a Myastro (Belarus) is built and examined with parameters based on field data. It is shown that community coupling and trophic\\u000a interactions give rise to both regular and irregular oscillations in population numbers.

  7. Bridging the gap between marine biogeochemical and fisheries sciences; configuring the zooplankton link

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, Aditee; Castellani, Claudia; Gentleman, Wendy C.; Jónasdóttir, Sigrún H.; Flynn, Kevin J.; Bode, Antonio; Halsband, Claudia; Kuhn, Penelope; Licandro, Priscilla; Agersted, Mette D.; Calbet, Albert; Lindeque, Penelope K.; Koppelmann, Rolf; Møller, Eva F.; Gislason, Astthor; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; St. John, Michael

    2014-12-01

    Exploring climate and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems requires an understanding of how trophic components interact. However, integrative end-to-end ecosystem studies (experimental and/or modelling) are rare. Experimental investigations often concentrate on a particular group or individual species within a trophic level, while tropho-dynamic field studies typically employ either a bottom-up approach concentrating on the phytoplankton community or a top-down approach concentrating on the fish community. Likewise the emphasis within modelling studies is usually placed upon phytoplankton-dominated biogeochemistry or on aspects of fisheries regulation. In consequence the roles of zooplankton communities (protists and metazoans) linking phytoplankton and fish communities are typically under-represented if not (especially in fisheries models) ignored. Where represented in ecosystem models, zooplankton are usually incorporated in an extremely simplistic fashion, using empirical descriptions merging various interacting physiological functions governing zooplankton growth and development, and thence ignoring physiological feedback mechanisms. Here we demonstrate, within a modelled plankton food-web system, how trophic dynamics are sensitive to small changes in parameter values describing zooplankton vital rates and thus the importance of using appropriate zooplankton descriptors. Through a comprehensive review, we reveal the mismatch between empirical understanding and modelling activities identifying important issues that warrant further experimental and modelling investigation. These include: food selectivity, kinetics of prey consumption and interactions with assimilation and growth, form of voided material, mortality rates at different age-stages relative to prior nutrient history. In particular there is a need for dynamic data series in which predator and prey of known nutrient history are studied interacting under varied pH and temperature regimes.

  8. Density dependent matrix model for gray wolf population projection

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David H Miller; Al L Jensen; James H Hammill

    2002-01-01

    A Leslie matrix model was developed for a small gray wolf (Canis lupus) population recolonizing an area with abundant resources and uncontrolled by humans. The model was modified to describe population growth in a limited environment using a discrete form of the logistic equation. The density dependent Leslie matrix model was applied to investigate gray wolf population recovery in the

  9. Zooplankton species composition, abundance and biomass on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: The potential role of water-column stability and nutrients in structuring the zooplankton community

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kenneth O. Coyle; Alexei I. Pinchuk; Lisa B. Eisner; Jeffrey M. Napp

    2008-01-01

    The southeastern Bering Sea sustains one of the largest fisheries in the United States, as well as wildlife resources that support valuable tourist and subsistence economies. The fish and wildlife populations in turn are sustained by a food web linking primary producers to apex predators through the zooplankton community. Recent shifts in climate toward warmer conditions may threaten these resources

  10. Promotion of harmful algal blooms by zooplankton predatory activity

    PubMed Central

    Mitra, Aditee; Flynn, Kevin J

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between algae and their zooplanktonic predators typically involves consumption of nutrients by algae, grazing of the algae by zooplankton which in turn enhances predator biomass, controls algal growth and regenerates nutrients. Eutrophication raises nutrient levels, but does not simply increase normal predator–prey activity; rather, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events develop often with serious ecological and aesthetic implications. Generally, HAB species are outwardly poor competitors for nutrients, while their development of grazing deterrents during nutrient stress ostensibly occurs too late, after the nutrients have largely been consumed already by fast-growing non-HAB species. A new mechanism is presented to explain HAB dynamics under these circumstances. Using a multi-nutrient predator–prey model, it is demonstrated that these blooms can develop through the self-propagating failure of normal predator–prey activity, resulting in the transfer of nutrients into HAB growth at the expense of competing algal species. Rate limitation of this transfer provides a continual level of nutrient stress that results in HAB species exhibiting grazing deterrents protecting them from top-down control. This process is self-stabilizing as long as nutrient demand exceeds supply, maintaining the unpalatable status of HABs; such events are most likely under eutrophic conditions with skewed nutrient ratios. PMID:17148360

  11. Are blue-green algae a suitable food for zooplankton? An overview

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. de Bernardi; G. Giussani

    1990-01-01

    One of the reasons suggested to explain the dominance of blue-greens in eutrophic lakes is that they are not used as food\\u000a by zooplankton; and even when ingested, they are poorly utilized.\\u000a \\u000a An increase in herbivores might be the expected result of biomanipulation of the aquatic food chain. This attempt at controlling\\u000a the algae population is, however, destined to fail

  12. Zooplankton diversity and physico-chemical conditions in three perennial ponds of Virudhunagar district, Tamilnadu.

    PubMed

    Rajagopal, T; Thangamani, A; Sevarkodiyone, S P; Sekar, M; Archunan, G

    2010-05-01

    Plankton diversity and physico-chemical parameters are an important criterion for evaluating the suitability of water for irrigation and drinking purposes. In this study we tried to assess the zooplankton species richness, diversity and evenness and to predict the state of three perennial ponds according to physico-chemical parameters. A total of 47 taxa were recorded: 24 rotifers, 9 copepods, 8 cladocerans, 4 ostracods and 2 protozoans. More number of zooplankton species were recorded in Chinnapperkovil pond (47 species) followed by Nallanchettipatti (39 species) and Kadabamkulam pond (24 species). Among the rotifers, Branchionus sp. is abundant. Diaphanosoma sp. predominant among the cladocerans. Among copepods, numerical superiority was found in the case of Mesocyclopes sp. Cypris sp. repeated abundance among ostracoda. Present study revealed that zooplankton species richness (R1 and R2) was comparatively higher (R1: 4.39; R2: 2.13) in Chinnapperkovil pond. The species diversity was higher in the Chinnapperkovil pond (H': 2.53; N1: 15.05; N2: 15.75) as compared to other ponds. The water samples were analyzed for temperature, pH, electrical conductivity alkalinity salinity, phosphate, hardness, dissolved oxygen and biological oxygen demand. Higher value of physico-chemical parameters and zooplankton diversity were recorded in Chinnapperkovil pond as compared to other ponds. The zooplankton population shows positive significant correlation with physico-chemical parameters like, temperature, alkalinity phosphate, hardness and biological oxygen demand, whereas negatively correlated with rainfall and salinity. The study revealed that the presence of certain species like, Monostyla sp., Keratella sp., Lapadella sp., Leydigia sp., Moinodaphnia sp., Diaptomus sp., Diaphanosoma sp., Mesocyclopes sp., Cypris sp. and Brachionus sp. is considered to be biological indicator for eutrophication. PMID:21046994

  13. Population viability analysis for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori): A stochastic population model for local populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Stephanie M. Burkhart; Elisabeth Slooten

    2003-01-01

    Mortality of Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) in gill?net fisheries is a threat to local populations throughout its range. This population viability analysis extends previous work by exploring a wider range of fishing levels and population growth rates, by incorporating year?to?year and environmental variability and by reporting results for smaller population units. Ten of the 16 populations are likely to continue

  14. Trade-offs in the vertical distribution of zooplankton: ideal free distribution with costs?

    PubMed Central

    Lampert, Winfried; McCauley, Edward; Manly, Bryan F J

    2003-01-01

    Zooplankton vertical migratory patterns are a classic example of optimal habitat choice. We hypothesize that zooplankton distribute themselves vertically in the water column according to an ideal free distribution (IFD) with costs such as to optimize their fitness. In lakes with a deep-water chlorophyll maximum, zooplankton are faced with a trade-off, either experiencing high food (high reproductive potential) but low temperature (slow development) in the hypolimnion or high temperature and low food in the epilimnion. Thus, in the absence of fish predation (e.g. at night) they should allocate the time spent in the different habitats according to fitness gain dependent on the temperature gradient and distribution of food. We tested this hypothesis with a Daphnia hyalina x galeata clone in large indoor columns (Plön Plankton Towers) and with a dynamic energy budget model. In the tower experiments, we simulated a deep-water algal maximum below the thermocline with epilimnetic/hypolimnetic temperature differences of 2, 5 and 10 degrees C. Experimental data supported the model. We found a significantly larger proportion of daphniids in the hypolimnion when the temperature difference was smaller. Our results are consistent with the concept of IFD with costs originally developed for stream fishes. This concept can be applied to predict the vertical distribution of zooplankton in habitats where fish predation is of minor importance. PMID:12713752

  15. The electric sense of the paddlefish: a passive system for the detection and capture of zooplankton prey

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lon A. Wilkens; Michael H. Hofmann; Winfried Wojteneka

    2002-01-01

    Behavioral and electrophysiological experiments have shown that the elongated paddlefish rostrum, with its extensive population of ampullae of Lorenzini, constitutes a passive electrosensory antenna of great sensitivity and spatial resolution. As demonstrated in juvenile paddlefish, the passive electrosense serves a novel function in feeding serving as the primary, if not exclusive sensory modality for the detection and capture of zooplanktonic

  16. A Population Model for the Academic Ecosystem

    E-print Network

    Wu, Yan; Chiu, Dah Ming

    2015-01-01

    In recent times, the academic ecosystem has seen a tremendous growth in number of authors and publications. While most temporal studies in this area focus on evolution of co-author and citation network structure, this systemic inflation has received very little attention. In this paper, we address this issue by proposing a population model for academia, derived from publication records in the Computer Science domain. We use a generalized branching process as an overarching framework, which enables us to describe the evolution and composition of the research community in a systematic manner. Further, the observed patterns allow us to shed light on researchers' lifecycle encompassing arrival, academic life expectancy, activity, productivity and offspring distribution in the ecosystem. We believe such a study will help develop better bibliometric indices which account for the inflation, and also provide insights into sustainable and efficient resource management for academia.

  17. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  18. Abundance, distribution and patch formation of zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paffenhöfer, Gustav-Adolf; Sherman, Byron K.; Lee, Thomas N.

    The goal of studies described here was to determine the responses of zooplankton taxa to phytoplankton patches which develop in and near intrusions of cold, nutrient-rich Gulf Stream water. To achieve this goal we determined the horizontal and vertical distributions of abundant mesozooplankton taxa on the south-eastern continental shelf of the USA between 29°30? and 31°N. The study period was from June 23 to August 16, 1981. Highest concentrations of zooplankton usually occurred in and near patches of phytoplankton. Increased phytoplankton appeared to trigger the formation of patches of the calanoid copepod Temora turbinata and the cyclopoid copepods Oithona spp. and Oncaea spp. The patches of zooplankton had greater alongshore than cross-shelf dimensions. T. turbinata responded rapidly to increased concentrations of phytoplankton by reproducing and aggregating in and above intruded waters. Oithonidae which were often, but not always, abundant in phytoplankton patches eventually attained high concentrations over most of the middle and part of the inner shelf. Their concentration and that of Oncaeidae increased steadily. Oncaeidae were not abundant in recently upwelled waters, as was T. turbinata but reached high concentrations in older intrusions when the abundance of T. turbinata remained level or decreased slowly. Both cyclopoid taxa are thought to reproduce slowly (egg sacs) compared to T. turbinata. Another taxon, the doliolids, became abundant far more rapidly in intruded waters (by asexual reproduction) than did the other three taxa. Doliolids were the most opportunistic intrusion zooplankton form. They do not regularly occur in low abundance on the shelf, as do the three copepod taxa, but develop in pulses in regions where T. turbinata and Oncaea are not abundant. Of the four taxa studied the abundance of doliolids increased and decreased most rapidly, whereas Oithona and Oncaea increased slowly and did not decrease during the study period. T. turbinata and Oncaea were most abundant at 60% of all stations in the intruding water. Doliolids and Oithona on the other hand, were mostly in the thermocline and intrusion. Whereas phytoplankton patches, which developed in intrusions, were physically induced (PAFFENHÖFER and LEE, 1988), patches of zooplankton were biologically induced.

  19. Linking Dynamical and Population Genetic Models of Persistent Viral Infection

    E-print Network

    Kelly, John K.; Williamson, Scott; Orive, Maria E.; Smith, Marilyn S.; Holt, Robert D.

    2003-07-01

    This article develops a theoretical framework to link dynamical and population genetic models of persistent viral infection. This linkage is useful because, while the dynamical and population genetic theories have developed ...

  20. The role of trophic bottlenecks in stunting: a field test of an allocation model of growth and reproduction in yellow perch, Perca flavescens

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Daniel D. Heath; Derek A. Roff

    1996-01-01

    Synopsis Stunting in freshwater fish populations may be due to low availability of one or more prey components within their diet. If the limiting prey constitute a trophic level (i.e. zooplankton, benthos, or fish), we define the phenomenon as a trophic bottleneck. Growth of a non-stunted population of yellow perch, Perca flavescens, was simulated using an allocation model based on

  1. Modeling Populations and Habitats for Kirtland's Warbler

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Timothy L. Lewis, Ph.D.

    Conserving endangered species often requires a balancing of the biological needs of endangered populations against the human desires for economic and recreational opportunities. At least some biological aspects of every species are poorly understood, some do have large data sets that can be difficult to interpret. All are confounded by human interactions. Computational science allows visualization, analysis, and interpretation of large data sets in ways that can inform these complex biological and environmental problems. This module will allow students to explore one of the fundamental paradigms of conservation biology, island biogeography, and apply that theoretical ecological concept to a real-world problem by creating models for habitat management. Specifically this module reviews island biogeography as it applies to forest fragmentation in northern Michigan and uses the related concepts to explore applications to preservation of the endangered Kirtland's warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii). Students will learn fundamental ecological concepts, visualize and analyze large spatial data sets of an endangered species using a free but sophisticated geographic information system (GIS), and develop an environmental impact statement formatted output to explain recommendations based on their analysis of the data and developed models.

  2. Evaluating habitat as a surrogate for population viability using a spatially explicit population model.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H

    2004-06-01

    Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) and Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). We compared simple measures of habitat quality to estimates of population growth rates obtained from a spatially explicit model of population dynamics. We found that habitat quality was a relatively poor predictor of simulated population growth rates for several reasons. First, a relatively small proportion of the potential habitat for each species served as population sources in our simulations--15% for Red-shouldered Hawks and 2% for Goshawks. Second, when habitat quality correctly predicted demographic sources on the landscape, it consistently underestimated the contribution of these areas to the population. In areas where habitat quality correctly anticipated the presence of demographic sinks, we found no useful quantitative relationship between the two measures. Our simulation model captured the influence of habitat quality on the hawk populations, but it also incorporated interactions between dispersing individuals and landscape patterns. Thus, the discrepancies we observed likely reflected the influence of forest fragmentation and the spatial arrangement of forest patches on the populations. We conclude that simple measures of habitat quality will often be poor surrogates for population persistence, but that spatially explicit population models can help inform the development of better indices. PMID:15141448

  3. ZOOPLANKTON SIZE-SPECTRA IN GREAT LAKES COASTAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Zooplankton mean size and size-distribution are affected by planktivore pressure and potentially reflect the condition of trophic interactions and ecosystem health. We used an optical plankton counter (OPC) to survey and assess zooplankton size-spectra for twenty locations in Lak...

  4. COMPARISONS OF ZOOPLANKTON COMMUNITY SIZE STRUCTURE IN THE GREAT LAKES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Zooplankton mean-size and size-spectra distribution potentially reflect the condition of trophic interactions and ecosystem health because they are affected by both resource availability and planktivore pressure. We assessed zooplankton mean-size and size-spectra using an optical...

  5. Changes in the Lake Superior Crustacean Zooplankton Community

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jason Link; James H. Selgeby; Robert E. Keen

    2004-01-01

    We examined crustacean zooplankton densities at five locations in two regions of Lake Superior during a time period that spanned two decades, for three years in the early 1970's and again for three years in the early 1990's. We used coupled multivariate and univariate analyses to find whether the zooplankton community had changed over these decades, and to determine if

  6. Zooplankton of Lake Titicaca on the Bolivian side

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Masuzo Uéno

    1967-01-01

    The zooplankton, especially the Cladocera and the Copepoda, of Lake Titicaca on the Bolivian side is reported on the basis of a collection made in April 1961. The zooplankton at that time was sparse, consisting only of seven species. Boeckella titicacaeHarding is the dominant copepod and B. occidentalisMarsh is also abundant, as in the previous records obtained by the Percy

  7. Empirical analysis of zooplankton filtering and feeding rates

    Microsoft Academic Search

    ROBERT HENRY PETERS; JOHN A. DOWNING

    1984-01-01

    Multiple regression analysis of published zooplankton filtering and feeding rates yielded separate regression equations for cladocerans, marine Calanoid copepods, and all zooplankton. Ingestion rate was found to increase significantly with animal size, food concentration, and temperature. Filtering rate also increased with animal size and temperature, but declined as food concentration increased. The analysis suggests a difference in particle size preference

  8. Effects of UV-B irradiated algae on zooplankton grazing

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Hendrika J. De Lange; M. F. L. L. W. Lürling

    2003-01-01

    We tested the effects of UV-B stressed algae on grazing rates of zooplankton. Four algal species (Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, Cryptomonas sp., Scenedesmus obliquus and Microcystis aeruginosa) were used as food and fed to three zooplankton species (Daphnia galeata, Bosmina longirostris and Brachionus calyciflorus), representing different taxonomic groups. The phytoplankton species were cultured under PAR conditions, and under PAR supplemented with UV-B

  9. Modeling Neural Population Spiking Activity with Gibbs Distributions

    E-print Network

    Wood, Frank

    Modeling Neural Population Spiking Activity with Gibbs Distributions Frank Wood, Stefan Roth-parametric methods impractical. To address these prob- lems we propose an energy-based model in which the joint from a population of motor cortical neurons. In particular, we model the joint probability

  10. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  11. Using Domain Knowledge on Population Dynamics Modeling for Equation Discovery

    E-print Network

    Dzeroski, Saso

    a formalism for encoding population dynamics modeling knowledge that is more accessible to human expertsUsing Domain Knowledge on Population Dynamics Modeling for Equation Discovery Ljupco Todorovski limited portion of the expert knowledge about the observed system is used in the modeling process

  12. Some Stochastic Versions of the Matrix Model for Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Z. M. Sykes

    1969-01-01

    In an effort to provide probabilistic measures of the accuracy of population projections, stochastic models for population growth are defined from the classical discrete deterministic model by assuming respectively that (1) the deterministic model is subject to additive random errors; (2) the elements of the transition matrix represent probabilities, rather than rates; and (3) the transition matrices are random variables.

  13. Upslope transport of near-bed zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmer, Cheryl Ann

    2009-09-01

    Zooplankton residing just above the deep-sea floor is an important component of the benthic/benthopelagic food chain. Consuming planktonic particulates and organisms, holoplankton and meroplankton are prey for fish and large invertebrates. Mechanisms controlling their abundances have been explored over relatively long time scales (months to years). Here, zooplankton were sampled every 2 h for 2.2 d using a moored, automated, serial zooplankton pump. The physical regime (currents and temperature) 1-100 m above bottom was measured during an inclusive 24-d period. The study site was located on the upper continental slope (750 m) of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, between the productive shelf and more impoverished rise and abyss. The coupled biological and physical records indicated tidally driven, net upslope transport of the holoplankton. The copepod (74.5% of collections) time series showed marked periodicity with a peak frequency of ˜13 h, approximately the diurnal tide (Fourier analysis). Local maxima corresponded with minimal water temperatures. Moreover, tidal cross-slope flow was highly coherent and 90° out of phase with temperature. Thus, maximal copepod concentrations, originating in colder deeper water, would be transported up the slope by the tide. Estimated net displacement of ˜1 km/d would deliver the animals to continental-shelf depths within a couple weeks. Time series of the much less abundant larvaceans (urochordates) (15.3%) and polychaete larvae (8.9%) showed periodicities with peak frequencies of 8-9 h. Statistical significance of the periodic signals could not be determined due to low numbers. Revealing holoplankton dynamics on scales of hours, this study may contribute to understanding of, for example, copepod feeding and aggregation near the deep-sea floor.

  14. Spatio-temporal variability of the North Sea cod recruitment in relation to temperature and zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

  15. Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

  16. Limited-Information Modeling of Loggerhead Turtle Population Size

    E-print Network

    Hitchcock, David B.

    Limited-Information Modeling of Loggerhead Turtle Population Size John M. Grego University of South. In traditional capture-recapture experiments to estimate the size of an animal population, individual animals of captures for indi- vidual animals are made and are critical to inference about the population size. We

  17. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  18. HIERARCHICAL POPULATION MODELS FOR THE RED-COCKADED WOODPECKER

    Microsoft Academic Search

    MEVIN B. HOOTEN; CHRISTOPHER K. WIKLE; LAWRENCE D. CARLILE; RICHARD E. WARNER; DONALD PITTS

    The management of wildlife populations for sustainability has evolved as a main theme in natural science over the years and sophisticated statistical models have been developed for use in the prediction and characterization of population dynamics. Though game species serve as the com- mon focus for many studies, the evaluation of populations involving threatened and endangered animals warrants signifi cant

  19. Evolutionary Computation Models Population Genetics: Part 2

    E-print Network

    Altenberg, Lee

    ., sometimes the whole population) of parent types. The relationship between the transmission function.e. transformation---mutation, recombina­ tion, migration, permutation, etc.). T i/j;k is when there are two parents: Suppose there is an evolutionary game being played between the types in a population. Will the evolutionar

  20. Population model for Alaska Peninsula sea otters. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Siniff, D.B.

    1988-12-31

    This study was conducted to provide a basis for assessing risks of oil spills to sea otter populations along the Alaska Peninsula. The principal efforts were devoted to analyzing the available data on population dynamics. Curves characterizing survivorship and reproduction for sea otters were devised and fitted to several data sets. A detailed review was conducted of methods of assessing population dynamics data, and several new techniques (e.g., bootstrapping) were applied to available data. A simplified model for use with Alaska Peninsula sea otter populations was devised and implemented in a 'spreadsheet' format. Various aspects of model development and data on population size in Alaska Peninsula areas were reviewed.

  1. Biological processes in the water column of the South Atlantic Bight: Zooplankton responses: Progress report, June 1988--June 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Paffenhoefer, G.A.

    1989-02-07

    It is our objective to determine the major processes governing the abundance, composition and disruption of zooplankton as part of the interdisciplinary southeastern US continental shelf program of the Department of Energy. We will study the effects of physical processes such as along- and cross shelf advection and frontogenesis, on the development and fate of zooplankton populations during winter. Our proposed research consists of shipboard sampling, laboratory experiments and in situ determination of zooplankton abundance over time. The last objective represents a novel approach because the observations are (a) non-destructive with great spatial resolution, and (b) occur on current meter arrays at similar scales as measurements of current velocity and direction. Results to date show prolonged residence times of upwelled water masses on the middle and inner shelf during summer which results in the development of massive copepod and tunicate populations. During spring, the extent of displacement of nearshore zooplankton was a function of wind stress. Our results can be used to predict the impact of energy-related technology on the ecosystem of the southeastern continental shelf. 8 refs., 6 figs.

  2. Seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal zone of the North-Eastern Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikishina, A. B.; Arashkevich, E. G.; Louppova, N. E.; Soloviev, K. A.

    2009-04-01

    The phenological response of zooplankton community is a result of simultaneous effect of several factors: feeding conditions, predation abundance, periods of reproduction of common species and hydrodynamic regime. The Black sea ecosystem is one of the best studied in the world, otherwise there is still some illegibility about ecosystem functioning and especially about environmental factors influence on zooplankton dynamics. For the last twenty years pelagic system of the Black Sea has changed dramatically. The invasion of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the middle of eighties caused significant decrease in zooplankton biomass. It also altered plankton structure and shifted periods of mass reproduction of the abundant species and biomass maximums. For instance, before the invasion of Mnemiopsis the maximum of zooplankton biomass was observed in autumn (data by A. Pasternak, 1983), and after that the maximum moved to the spring (data by V.S. Khoroshilov, 1999). The incursion of ctenophore Beroe ovata feeding on Mnemiopsis in the nineties has led to the enhancement of zooplankton community. Although the detailed analysis of seasonal zooplankton dynamics wasn't performed in the recent years. The object of our research was to study seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal area of the North-Eastern Black Sea. Analysis of interannual, seasonal and spatial changes in zooplankton distribution, abundance and species composition along with age structure of dominant populations were performed based on investigations during 2005-2008 years in the North-Eastern Black Sea. Plankton samples were obtained monthly since June 2005 till December 2008. Plankton was collected at three stations at depths 25m, 50m and 500-1000m along the transect from the Blue Bay to the open sea. Sampling of gelatinous animals was conducted in parallel to the zooplankton sampling. Simultaneously with plankton sampling CTD data were obtained. The feeding conditions were obtained using SSC satellite data. For studying vertical distribution of zooplankton depth stratified samples were collected in different seasons. To evaluate seasonal variations in reproduction and offspring development of dominant mesozooplankton populations, we analyzed age structure of five species: four herbivorous copepods - Acartia clausi, Pseudocalanus elongatus, Paracalanus parvus and Calanus euxinus, and carnivorous chaethognaths Parasagitta setosa. Periods of mass reproduction varied in different years. The possible reason for this variation is the effect of climate change and top-predators on seasonal shift in zooplankton dynamics. Whereas timing of reproduction is related to life strategy of species, an intensity of reproduction and success of new generations depend on food supply. The impact of food conditions on abundance and age structure of herbivores was studied in the different seasons. Vertical distribution of different species also altered from year to year. Thus, in "warm" July 2007 (sea surface temperature 27°C) most of the Calanus euxinus population concentrated in the deeper layers than in "cold" July 2005 (sea surface temperature 22°C).

  3. Survival models for harvest management of mourning dove populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otis, D.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantitative models of the relationship between annual survival and harvest rate of migratory game-bird populations are essential to science-based harvest management strategies. I used the best available band-recovery and harvest data for mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) to build a set of models based on different assumptions about compensatory harvest mortality. Although these models suffer from lack of contemporary data, they can be used in development of an initial set of population models that synthesize existing demographic data on a management-unit scale, and serve as a tool for prioritization of population demographic information needs. Credible harvest management plans for mourning dove populations will require a long-term commitment to population monitoring and iterative population analysis.

  4. Population Growth - Exponential and Logistic Models vs. Complex Reality

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Ingrid Waldron

    This analysis and discussion activity is designed to help students develop an intuitive understanding of the exponential and logistic models of population growth, including the biological processes that result in exponential or logistic population growth. Students learn about the simplifying assumptions built into the exponential and logistic models and explore how deviations from these assumptions can result in discrepancies between the predictions of these models and actual trends in population size for natural populations. This activity is designed to help high school students meet the Next Generation Science Standards and the Common Core State Standards.

  5. PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

  6. PC BEEPOP - AN ECTOXICOLOGICAL SIMULATION MODEL FOR HONEY BEE POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee colony population dynamics. he model consists of a feedback system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, and contaminant exposures. t includes a mortality module (BEEKILL) and a ch...

  7. MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  8. Uncertainties in the Modeling of Old Stellar Populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Stephane Charlot; Guy Worthey; Alessandro Bressan

    1996-01-01

    We compare three recent models of the spectral evolution of stellar populations to assess the origin of serious discrepancies in the colors predicted for ≳ 1 Gyr old populations of the same input age and metallicity. To isolate the source of these discrepancies, we investigate separately the two main characteristics of each model: the underlying stellar evolution prescription and the

  9. Physiologically structured cell population dynamic models with applications to combined

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    cytotoxic drugs in the organism. An age-structured PDE cell population model has been designed with drug by cytotoxic drugs. The possi- bility to describe the effects of other drugs, cytostatic (includingPhysiologically structured cell population dynamic models with applications to combined drug

  10. Toxicant-induced fecundity compensation: A model of population responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, A. L.; Marshall, J. S.

    1983-03-01

    A mathematical model widely applied in population studies and in assessment of the impact of exploitation on fish populations was applied to assess cadmium toxicity in laboratory populations of Daphnia galeata mendotae. Over a range of toxicant concentrations, the birth rate of the population increased to balance the death rate and the population compensated for the increased mortality. The model describes the relation between toxicant concentration, toxicant-induced mortality, and equilibrium population size. Compensation for increased mortality is described in terms of the decrease in population size necessary to produce an increase in the birth rate that will balance the increased death rate. The relative capacity of different aquatic organisms to compensate for toxicant-induced mortality is examined and a relation between compensatory capacity and the innate capacity for increase is developed.

  11. Isolation by distance in a continuous population: reconciliation between spatial autocorrelation analysis and population genetics models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    OLIVIER J. HARDY; XAVIER VEKEMANS

    1999-01-01

    Analysis of the spatial genetic structure within continuous populations in their natural habitat can reveal acting evolutionary processes. Spatial autocorrelation statistics are often used for this purpose, but their relationships with population genetics models have not been thoroughly established. Moreover, it has been argued that the dependency of these statistics on variation in mutation rates among loci strongly limits their

  12. Phytoplankton limitation by phosphorus and zooplankton grazing in an acidic Adirondack lake

    SciTech Connect

    Singer, R.; Evans, G.L.; Pratt, N.C.

    1984-08-01

    Lakes which are believed to have been acidified by atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic substances are known for their unusually high water clarity and low nutrient concentrations. Some evidence indicates that alterations in predator/prey relationships, an indirect effect of acidification, bring about the increase in water clarity. Enclosures were used to study the effects of phosphorus addition and zooplankton removal on the phytoplankton of an acidic lake in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Fertilized enclosures had significantly lower alkalinities and contained significantly more dissolved oxygen after the incubation period than did unfertilized enclosures. The P concentration remained at or near the limit of detection in the unfertilized enclosures. The phytoplankton population bloomed after the addition of 80 micro g/liter of phosphate as KH/sub 2/PO/sub 4/. The response was measured by cell counts of the dominant phytoplankton. Chlamydomonas, and by changes in chlorophyll a concentration. About half the number of algal cells were present after the two week incubation when zooplankton were not removed, indicating that zooplankton herbivory can influence, but not totally control, the algal production. 46 references.

  13. Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton, and zooplankton: emergence in space and time.

    PubMed

    Roy, Shovonlal

    2008-10-01

    In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity-a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water. PMID:19669506

  14. Evidence of microplastics in samples of zooplankton from Portuguese coastal waters.

    PubMed

    Frias, J P G L; Otero, V; Sobral, P

    2014-04-01

    Records of high concentrations of plastic and microplastic marine debris floating in the ocean have led to investigate the presence of microplastics in samples of zooplankton from Portuguese coastal waters. Zooplankton samples collected at four offshore sites, in surveys conducted between 2002 and 2008, with three different sampling methods, were used in this preliminary study. A total of 152 samples were processed and microplastics were identified in 93 of them, corresponding to 61% of the total. Costa Vicentina, followed by Lisboa, were the regions with higher microplastic concentrations (0.036 and 0.033 no. m?³) and abundances (0.07 and 0.06 cm³ m?³), respectively. Microplastic: zooplankton ratios were also higher in these two regions, which is probably related to the proximity of densely populated areas and inputs from the Tejo and Sado river estuaries. Microplastics polymers were identified using Micro Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (?-FTIR), as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyacrylates (PA). The present work is the first report on the composition of microplastic particles collected with plankton nets in Portuguese coastal waters. Plankton surveys from regular monitoring campaigns conducted worldwide may be used to monitor plastic particles in the oceans and constitute an important and low cost tool to address marine litter within the scope of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC). PMID:24461782

  15. Simple density-dependent matrix model for population projection

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. L. Jensen

    1995-01-01

    A matrix model based on a discrete time form of the logistic equation and the Leslie matrix model was developed for density-dependent population growth; the model is simpler and more easily applied than the model developed by Liu and Cohen in 1987 using a different discrete time form of the logistic equation. The new model requires no additional parameters, matrices,

  16. Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

    PubMed

    Owen-Smith, Norman

    2011-07-01

    1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. PMID:21644974

  17. Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

  18. Zooplankton may serve as transmission vectors for viruses infecting algal blooms in the ocean.

    PubMed

    Frada, Miguel José; Schatz, Daniella; Farstey, Viviana; Ossolinski, Justin E; Sabanay, Helena; Ben-Dor, Shifra; Koren, Ilan; Vardi, Assaf

    2014-11-01

    Marine viruses are recognized as a major driving force regulating phytoplankton community composition and nutrient cycling in the oceans. Yet, little is known about mechanisms that influence viral dispersal in aquatic systems, other than physical processes, and that lead to the rapid demise of large-scale algal blooms in the oceans. Here, we show that copepods, abundant migrating crustaceans that graze on phytoplankton, as well as other zooplankton can accumulate and mediate the transmission of viruses infecting Emiliania huxleyi, a bloom-forming coccolithophore that plays an important role in the carbon cycle. We detected by PCR that >80% of copepods collected during a North Atlantic E. huxleyi bloom carried E. huxleyi virus (EhV) DNA. We demonstrated by isolating a new infectious EhV strain from a copepod microbiome that these viruses are infectious. We further showed that EhVs can accumulate in high titers within zooplankton guts during feeding or can be adsorbed to their surface. Subsequently, EhV can be dispersed by detachment or via viral-dense fecal pellets over a period of 1 day postfeeding on EhV-infected algal cells, readily infecting new host populations. Intriguingly, the passage through zooplankton guts prolonged EhV's half-life of infectivity by 35%, relative to free virions in seawater, potentially enhancing viral transmission. We propose that zooplankton, swimming through topographically adjacent phytoplankton micropatches and migrating daily over large areas across physically separated water masses, can serve as viral vectors, boosting host-virus contact rates and potentially accelerating the demise of large-scale phytoplankton blooms. PMID:25438947

  19. A delayed-recruitment model of population dynamics, with an application to baleen whale populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Colin W. Clark

    1976-01-01

    This paper studies the delay equation xk+1=?xk+F(xk-ß), which has been employed as a model of baleen whale population dynamics. The two main questions discussed are (a) stability of equilibria, and (b) optimal exploitation policies.

  20. Adaptive Management, Population Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of Noise on Cetacean Populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Brendan A. Wintle

    Population modeling is now widely used in threatened species management and for predicting the impacts and benefits of competing management options. However, some argue that the results of models must be used with caution, particularly when data are limited. This is important, as even the simplest models would generally require more data (and knowledge) than are available in order to

  1. Evolutionary Computation Models Population Genetics: Part 2

    E-print Network

    Altenberg, Lee

    , two, etc., sometimes the whole population) of parent types. The relationship between the transmission.e. transformation--mutation, recombination, migration, permutation, etc.). § £©¨ is when there are two parents = uij xj xi' = wixi / wi xi Q: Suppose there is an evolutionary game being played between the types

  2. Modeling and prediction of cell population dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Youngil Lima

    Oscillatory yeast cell dynamics are observed in glucose-limited growth environments. Under such conditions, both glucose and the excreted product ethanol can serve as substrates for cell growth. The cell dynamics is described by a PDE (partial differential equation) system containing one PDE for the cell population and 8 ODEs for 8 substrates variations (extracellular glucose, extracellular ethanol, intracellular glucose, intracellular

  3. Modelling production per unit of food consumed in fish populations.

    PubMed

    Wiff, Rodrigo; Barrientos, Mauricio A; Milessi, Andrés C; Quiroz, J C; Harwood, John

    2015-01-21

    The ratio of production-to-consumption (?) reflects how efficiently a population can transform ingested food into biomass. Usually this ratio is estimated by separately integrating cohort per-recruit production and consumption per unit of biomass. Estimates of ? from cohort analysis differ from those that consider the whole population, because fish populations are usually composed of cohorts that differ in their relative abundance. Cohort models for ? also assume a stable age-structure and a constant population size (stationary condition). This may preclude their application to harvested populations, in which variations in fishing mortality and recruitment will affect age-structure. In this paper, we propose a different framework for estimating (?) in which production and consumption are modelled simultaneously to produce a population estimator of ?. Food consumption is inferred from the physiological concepts underpinning the generalised von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF). This general framework allows the effects of different age-structures to be explored, with a stationary population as a special case. Three models with different complexities, depending mostly on what assumptions are made about age-structure, are explored. The full data model requires knowledge about food assimilation efficiency, parameters of the VBGF and the relative proportion of individuals at age a at time y (Py(a)). A simpler model, which requires less data, is based on the stationary assumption. Model results are compared with estimates from cohort models for ? using simulated fish populations of different lifespans. The models proposed here were also applied to three fish populations that are targets of commercial fisheries in the south-east Pacific. Uncertainty in the estimation of ? was evaluated using a resampling approach. Simulation showed that cohort and population models produce different estimates for ? and those differences depend on lifespan, fishing mortality and recruitment variations. Results from the three case studies show that the population model gives similar estimates to those reported by empirical models in other fish species. This modelling framework allows ? to be related directly to population length- or age-structure and thus has the potential to improve the biological realism of both population and ecosystem models. PMID:25445187

  4. Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.

  5. Modeling the East Coast Akalat Population: Model Comparison and Parameter Estimation

    E-print Network

    of the dynamics of the akalat population, and to make confident projections of the future state of population, oneModeling the East Coast Akalat Population: Model Comparison and Parameter Estimation H.T. Banks Akalat, a Kenyan bird whose population is in decline. The effects of observation error and sparsity

  6. Response of zooplankton and phytoplankton communities to creosote-impregnated Douglas fir pilings in freshwater microcosms.

    PubMed

    Sibley, P K; Harris, M L; Bestari, K T; Steele, T A; Robinson, R D; Gensemer, R W; Day, K E; Solomon, K R

    2004-07-01

    Creosote has been used extensively as an industrial wood preservative for the protection of marine pilings, railway ties, and utility poles and is a common source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) into aquatic environments. At present, there is little information by which to judge the potential for creosote leached from impregnated pilings to cause toxicity to biota in aquatic environments. The objective of the current study was to assess the effects of creosote on zooplankton and phytoplankton populations in freshwater microcosms in relation to changes in the concentration and composition of PAHs leached from creosote-impregnated Douglas fir pilings during an 83-day exposure period. The study consisted of single microcosms containing one half, one, two, three, four, and six treated pilings. Two microcosms that received untreated pilings were used as controls. The total surface area of pilings in each microcosm was normalized by adding the appropriate number of untreated pilings. Samples were collected periodically between -14 and 83 days pre- and postexposure to determine aqueous concentrations of 15 priority PAHs and to assess the response of zooplankton and phytoplankton communities. Plankton community response to creosote was analyzed using principle responses curves. Peak aqueous concentrations of sigmaPAH occurred at day 7, ranging from 7.3 to 97.3 microg/L. Zooplankton abundance decreased in all microcosms after introduction of the impregnated pilings, with the magnitude of response varying as a function of aqueous creosote concentration. Using inverse regression, a no-observed-effect concentration for the zooplankton community of 11.1 microg/L was estimated. In contrast, algal abundance and diversity increased in all treatments between 7 and 21 days and attained levels up to twice that in control microcosms. This trend most likely reflected decreased grazing pressure because of the decrease in zooplankton populations, but it may also have reflected growth stimulation resulting from exposure to various constituents within the creosote mixture. Our results indicate that creosote leached from impregnated pilings deployed under typical conditions (e.g., wharves) may cause transient toxicity to benthic or limnetic communities shortly after deployment, but this likely poses few long-term risks to aquatic freshwater plankton communities. PMID:15346778

  7. Discriminating zooplankton assemblages in neritic and oceanic waters: a case for the northeast coast of India, Bay of Bengal.

    PubMed

    Rakhesh, M; Raman, A V; Sudarsan, D

    2006-02-01

    Zooplankton species distribution and abundance data at 17 locations in the inshore (10-30 m), shelf (50-200 m) and oceanic (2,500-2,800 m) regions off northeast India (Bay of Bengal) during January 1999-April 2001 revealed 112 taxa represented by 30 divergent groups. Copepods (58 species) dominated (87%) the population numerically. In general zooplankton diversity (Margalef richness d, Shannon-Wiener H', Pielou's evenness J') increased in the direction of the open sea relative to coastal locations with a concomitant decrease both in abundance (ind m(-3)) and biomass (dry mass m(-3)). Based on multivariate analyses, it was possible to distinguish the zooplankton community into different assemblages according to their location (e.g., inshore, shelf, oceanic) and seasonality. While Acrocalanus sp., Oithona sp., Corycaeus danae, Euterpina acutifrons, Paracalanus sp., and Acartia sp. were found characterizing the coastal locations, Oncaea venusta was the discriminating species for shelf waters. In oceanic areas, there was a clear dominance of Labidocera sp., Candacia sp., Euchaeta rimana, Centropages calaninus, Copilia mirabilis and Corycella gibbula. The investigations revealed that changes in zooplankton community structure across water bodies could be associated with differing salinity. During November 1999 (post-monsoon), when salinity in the coastal waters was relatively low (26-28.9 PSU), the zooplankton community consisted of mainly Acrocalanus sp., Salpa, Corycaeus danae, Oikopleura sp., Acartia sp., Evadne tergestina, and Creseis sp. In January 2000 (salinity 32.4-34.1), additionally Corycella gibbula, Labidocera sp., Centropages sp., Microsetella sp., Euterpina acutifrons, Canthocalanus pauper, and Oncaea venusta represented the population discriminating the assemblage from others. In May 2000 (pre-monsoon) when salinity was highest (34.7-35.3), Oithona sp., Paracalanus sp., and Acrocalanus gibber were found important. Chaetognaths formed a distinct group during this period. Results presented during this investigation are considered significant since no previous studies exist for this locale drawing comparisons of the kind made during this study between coastal and oceanic situations. PMID:16125769

  8. GIS and plume dispersion modeling for population exposure assessment

    E-print Network

    Archer, Jeffrey Keith

    1998-01-01

    GIS and Plume Dispersion Modeling for Population Exposure Assessment. (August 1998) Jeffrey Keith Archer, B. S. , Texas A&M University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Robert Maggio The use of Pollutant Plume Dispersion Models is widespread...GIS AND PLUME DISPERSION MODELING FOR POPULATION EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT A Thesis by JEFFREY KEITH ARCHER Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER...

  9. Stimulus-dependent Maximum Entropy Models of Neural Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Segev, Ronen; Schneidman, Elad

    2013-01-01

    Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model—a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population. PMID:23516339

  10. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population.

    PubMed

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. PMID:24998972

  11. [Models of economic theory of population growth].

    PubMed

    Von Zameck, W

    1987-01-01

    "The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration." (SUMMARY IN ENG) PMID:12268788

  12. Modeling the population dynamics of Gulf Coast sandhill cranes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.; Kendall, W.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Midcontinental population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has a large geographic range, contains nearly 500,000 birds, and is hunted in much of its range. The population includes three subspecies; the numbers of two of these are uncertain, and they should be afforded protection from hunting that would be detrimental to their population. The two subspecies of concern tend to concentrate in the eastern part of the Great Plains during fall and spring and to winter along the Gulf Coast in Texas. This paper uses the limited information available about the Gulf Coast subpopulation in a model. We included in the model five input parameters: population size, annual survival rate in absence of hunting, the number of birds taken by hunters, the extent of additivity of hunting mortality, and recruitment rate, measured as the fraction of juveniles in the winter population. Using three widely ranging estimates of each parameter, we examined the general behavior of the simulated population. Realistic population projections occurred with medium (60,000) or large (166,000) population sizes, low (2000) or moderate (4000) harvests, and recruitment rates of 0.07 and 0.11. All values of survival in the absence of hunting and additivity of hunting yielded some realistic projections. Results of modelling suggest that the variables warranting closer monitoring are population size and recruitment rate.

  13. Parasitic chytrids sustain zooplankton growth during inedible algal bloom

    PubMed Central

    Rasconi, Serena; Grami, Boutheina; Niquil, Nathalie; Jobard, Marlène; Sime-Ngando, Télesphore

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the quantitative impact of parasitic chytrids on the planktonic food web of two contrasting freshwater lakes during different algal bloom situations. Carbon-based food web models were used to investigate the effects of chytrids during the spring diatom bloom in Lake Pavin (oligo-mesotrophic) and the autumn cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Aydat (eutrophic). Linear inverse modeling was employed to estimate undetermined flows in both lakes. The Monte Carlo Markov chain linear inverse modeling procedure provided estimates of the ranges of model-derived fluxes. Model results confirm recent theories on the impact of parasites on food web function through grazers and recyclers. During blooms of “inedible” algae (unexploited by planktonic herbivores), the epidemic growth of chytrids channeled 19–20% of the primary production in both lakes through the production of grazer exploitable zoospores. The parasitic throughput represented 50% and 57% of the zooplankton diet, respectively, in the oligo-mesotrophic and in the eutrophic lakes. Parasites also affected ecological network properties such as longer carbon path lengths and loop strength, and contributed to increase the stability of the aquatic food web, notably in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Pavin. PMID:24904543

  14. GUIDELINES FOR ZOOPLANKTON SAMPLING IN QUANTITATIVE BASELINE AND MONITORING PROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Methods applicable to zooplankton sampling and analysis in quantitative baseline and monitoring surveys are evaluated and summarized. Specific recommendations by managers must take into account characteristics of the water mass under investigation, the abundance of contained zoop...

  15. Associations between gelatinous zooplankton and hyperiid amphipods (Crustacea

    E-print Network

    Rebeca Gasca; Steven H. D. Haddock

    2004-01-01

    Hyperiid amphipods are pelagic crustaceans that live associated with gelatinous zooplankton including medusae, ctenophores, siphonophores, and salps. Standard plankton sampling disrupts natural associations, so the most reliable way to determine an association is through direct observation of the

  16. The nk model and population genetics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John J. Welch; David Waxman

    2005-01-01

    The nk model of fitness interactions is examined. This model has been used by previous authors to investigate the effects of fitness epistasis on substitution dynamics in molecular evolution, and to make broader claims about the importance of epistasis. To examine these claims, an infinite-allele approximation is introduced. In this limit, it is shown that the nk model is, at

  17. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  18. Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Stanley K. Smith

    1997-01-01

    This article is a review of—and response to—a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I do not attempt to summarize or comment on each of the articles in the special issue, but rather present an additional perspective on several points: definitions of simplicity and complexity, empirical

  19. A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ARMY ANT

    E-print Network

    Bath, University of

    A MATHEMATICAL MODEL S FOR THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF ARMY ANT N # N.F. BRITTO Centre for the population dynamics of the army ant c Eciton burchelli on Barro Colorado Island in Panama was set up. Introduction Army ants are among the most spectacular of social animals, living in organised r f colonies

  20. A Deterministic Model for Gonorrhea in a Nonhomogeneous Population*

    E-print Network

    Yorke, James

    A Deterministic Model for Gonorrhea in a Nonhomogeneous Population* ANA LAJMANOVICH AND JAMES A20742 Communicated by J. Hearon ABSTRACT The spread of gonorrhea in a population is highly nonuniform stability properties are studied. 1. INTRODUCTION In 1970 gonorrhea led the list of infectious diseases

  1. Role of two toxin-producing plankton and their effect on phytoplankton-zooplankton system--a mathematical study supported by experimental findings.

    PubMed

    Sarkar, R R; Pal, S; Chattopadhyay, J

    2005-04-01

    Plankton is the basis of the entire aquatic food chain. Phytoplankton, in particular, occupies the first trophic level. Plankton performs services for the Earth: it serves as food for marine life, gives off oxygen and also absorbs half of the carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere. The dynamics of a rapid (or massive) increase or decrease of plankton populations is an important subject in marine plankton ecology and generally termed as a 'bloom'. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have adverse effects on human health, fishery, tourism, and the environment. In recent years, considerable scientific attention has been given to HABs. Toxic substances released by harmful plankton play an important role in this context. In this paper, a mathematical model consisting of two harmful phytoplankton and zooplankton system will be discussed. The analytical findings will be verified through our experimental observations which were carried out on the eastern part of Bay of Bengal for the last three years. PMID:15740831

  2. Habitat structure and juvenile fish ontogeny shape zooplankton spring dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Alice Nicolle; Lars-Anders Hansson; Christer Brönmark

    2010-01-01

    Macrophytes in shallow lakes have the potential to alter fish–zooplankton interactions considerably. How far predation effects\\u000a by newly hatched fish (0+ fish) on zooplankton are influenced by different types of aquatic vegetation, and how effects change\\u000a during the first weeks of fish ontogeny remains, however, less clear. In order to address these issues, we examined the predation\\u000a effects of 0+

  3. Lipids of gelatinous antarctic zooplankton: Cnidaria and Ctenophora

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Matthew M. Nelson; Charles F. Phleger; Ben D. Mooney; Peter D. Nichols

    2000-01-01

    Antarctic gelatinous zooplankton, including Cnidaria (Calycopsis borchgrevinki, Diphyes antarctica, Stygiomedusa gigantea, Atolla wyvillei, Dimophyes arctica) and Ctenophora (Beroe cucumis, B. forskalii, Pleurobrachia pileus, Bolinopsis infundibulum) were collected near Elephant Island, South Shetland Islands, during January and February 1997 and 1998. Total lipid was\\u000a low in all zooplankton (0.1–5 mg g?1 wet mass) and included primarily polar lipids (59–96% of total

  4. Spatial models of northern bobwhite populations for conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Wilson, R.R.; Keister, A.S.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.

  5. Spatial models of Northern Bobwhite populations for conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Wilson, R.R.; Keister, A.S.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.

  6. Zooplankton time series from the Strait of Georgia: Results from year-round sampling at deep water locations, 1990-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackas, David; Galbraith, Moira; Faust, Deborah; Masson, Diane; Young, Kelly; Shaw, William; Romaine, Stephen; Trudel, Marc; Dower, John; Campbell, Rob; Sastri, Akash; Bornhold Pechter, Elizabeth A.; Pakhomov, Evgeny; El-Sabaawi, Rana

    2013-08-01

    We have compiled and archived a large fraction of the zooplankton data collected from the Strait of Georgia during the past 50 years. Although the full dataset is very heterogeneous and gappy, sampling since 1990 has been consistent and frequent enough to examine interannual variability of the full zooplankton community. In this paper we focus on deep tows at mid-Strait deep-water locations, where vertical-migratory zooplankton can be captured at all times of day and all seasons. Average zooplankton dryweight biomass is high (?9 g m-2) and varies seasonally between a winter minimum (?4 g m-2) and a broad late-spring to autumn maximum (10-11 g m-2). Much of the biomass in all seasons consists of large crustaceans (copepods, euphausiids and amphipods with oceanic and subarctic zoogeographic affinities) that undergo strong diurnal or seasonal vertical migrations. Their interannual variability is very strong: about an order of magnitude within most zooplankton categories, and nearly two orders of magnitude for euphausiids, large copepods, and chaetognaths. Most (73%) of the interannual variability is accounted for by three principal components. The dominant mode (36%) is a low-frequency decadal fluctuation shared by most zooplankton taxa: declining from 1990 to 1995, increasing to a maximum ?1999-2002, declining to a second minimum in 2005-2007, and then recovering to near-average levels by 2010. This zooplankton signal correlates positively with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) climate index, negatively with temperature anomalies throughout the water column, and positively (but less consistently) with survival anomalies of Strait of Georgia salmon and herring. Proximal causal mechanisms are less certain, but probably include estuarine advective exchange with outer coast populations, and timing match-mismatch within the Strait.

  7. Mathematical modeling in biological populations through branching processes. Application to salmonid populations.

    PubMed

    Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso

    2015-01-01

    This work deals with mathematical modeling through branching processes. We consider sexually reproducing animal populations where, in each generation, the number of progenitor couples is determined in a non-predictable environment. By using a class of two-sex branching processes, we describe their demographic dynamics and provide several probabilistic and inferential contributions. They include results about the extinction of the population and the estimation of the offspring distribution and its main moments. We also present an application to salmonid populations. PMID:24526259

  8. Generative Models of Brain Connectivity for Population Studies Archana Venkataraman

    E-print Network

    Golland, Polina

    Generative Models of Brain Connectivity for Population Studies by Archana Venkataraman S.B., Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2006) M.Eng., Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2007) Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer

  9. How predictable : modeling rates of change in individuals and populations

    E-print Network

    Krumme, Katherine

    2013-01-01

    This thesis develops methodologies to measure rates of change in individual human behavior, and to capture statistical regularities in change at the population level, in three pieces: i) a model of individual rate of change ...

  10. ZOOPLANKTON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN EXPERIMENTALLY TOXIFIED POND ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The response of aquatic systems to toxic contaminants cannot easily be predicted from laboratory bioassays. In ecosystems, contamination can occur in the concert of natural system processes and could have more or less dramatic effects, depending upon conditions such as system sta...

  11. L-Lake zooplankton: L-Lake/Steel Creek Biological Monitoring Program, November 1985--December 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Bowers, J.A. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Bowen, M. [Normandeau Associates, Inc., New Ellenton, SC (United States)

    1992-03-01

    The L- Lake Biological Monitoring Program was designed to meet environmental regulatory requirements associated with the restart of L-Reactor and address portions of Section 316(a) of the Clean Water Act, which requires an applicant for a discharge permit to provide scientific evidence that the discharge causes no significant impact on the indigenous ecosystem. The Department of Energy (DOE) must demonstrate that the discharge of L-Reactor affluent into L Lake will not inhibit the eventual establishment of a ``Balanced Biological Community`` (BBC) in at least 50% of the lake. This report details results of monitoring zooplankton populations in L-Lake.

  12. A STAGE-BASED MODEL OF MANATEE POPULATION DYNAMICS

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael C. Runge; Catherine A. Langtimm; William L. Kendall

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (k) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016- 1.056) and 1.062

  13. Inference from a Deterministic Population Dynamics Model for Bowhead Whales

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Adrian E. Raftery; Geof H. Givens; Judith E. Zeh

    1995-01-01

    We consider the problem of inference about a quantity of interest given different sources of information linked by a deterministic population dynamics model. Our approach consists of translating all the available information into a joint premodel distribution on all the model inputs and outputs and then restricting this to the submanifold defined by the model to obtain the joint postmodel

  14. Usefulness of spatially explicit population models in land management

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M ONICA G. TURNER; GREG J. ARTHAUD; R. TODD ENGSTROM; SALLIE J. HEJL; Jianguo Liu; SUSAN LOEB; KEVIN MCKELVEY

    1995-01-01

    Land managers need new tools, such as spatial models, to aid them in their decision-making processes because managing for biodiversity, water quality, or natural disturbance is challenging, and landscapes are complex and dynamic. Spatially explicit population models are helpful to managers because these models consider both species - habitat relationships and the arrangement of habitats in space and time. The

  15. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  16. Towards a Model of the Trans-Neptunian Binary Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, Alex H.; Noll, Keith S.

    2014-11-01

    The trends of binary properties across all classes of trans-Neptunian Objects and all size and separation regimes provide important constraints on the dynamical environment and history of the outer Solar System. To date, no population model has been developed, tested, and published that simultaneously considers binary mutual orbit distributions, component size ratios, photometric colors, and conditional occurrence frequency depending on primary size and host population. Here I present the first efforts to develop such a model, and apply it to existing catalogs of trans-Neptunian binaries to extract new estimates of the characteristics of this valuable population.

  17. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  18. Role of toxin and nutrient for the occurrence and termination of plankton bloom--results drawn from field observations and a mathematical model.

    PubMed

    Pal, S; Chatterjee, Samrat; Chattopadhyay, J

    2007-01-01

    The termination of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and coexistence of phytoplankton-zooplankton populations are of great importance to human health, ecosystem, environment, tourism and fisheries. In this paper we propose a three-component model consisting of dissolved limiting nutrients (N) supplied at constant rate and partially recycled after the death of plankton by bacterial decomposition, phytoplankton (P) and zooplankton (Z), where the growth of zooplankton species reduce due to toxic chemicals released by phytoplankton species. Our analysis leads to different thresholds which are expressible in terms of model parameters and determine the existence and stability of various states of the system. We observe that phytoplankton-zooplankton persist if the maximal zooplankton ingestion rate exceeds a lower threshold value. It is shown that the coexistence equilibrium loses its stability when the dilution rate of the nutrient concentration passes through a critical value and Hopf bifurcation occurs that induces oscillations of the population. Our results indicate that the occurrence of bloom increases when the nutrient concentration is very high, and in that case toxin produced by the phytoplankton plays a very crucial role towards the termination of the planktonic bloom. PMID:17194523

  19. Stable isotope analysis of 1987-1991 zooplankton samples and bowhead whale tissues. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schell, D.M.

    1992-06-01

    Stable isotope analyses of bowhead whale tissue samples and bowhead whale prey organisms collected over the years 1987 to 1991 were used to provide detail on the isotope ratio gradients evident in the arctic Alaskan zooplankton and to verify previous findings regarding the growth rates and age determination techniques developed for bowhead whales. Zooplankton of the Bering and Chukchi seas are enriched in (13)C relative to the eastern Beaufort Sea. The analysis of baleen from bowhead whales taken between 1987 to 1990 indicate that the whales are slow-growing and the young animals between year one and about six to seven years of age, undergo a period of little or no linear growth. The authors estimate that bowheads require 16-18 years to reach the length of sexual maturity, i.e., 13-14 m. From baleen Delta(13C) cycles, a 20 year record of the isotope ratios in the phytoplankton of the northern Bering and Chukchi seas was constructed. The long-term record has been compared with the temperature anomalies in surface waters of the Bering Sea. The Delta(13C) of the zooplankton is inversely correlated with temperature and refutes current models attempting to relate ocean temperature, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with the Delta(13C) of ocean sediment organic matter.

  20. The vertical distribution of zooplankton in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopkins, Thomas L.

    1982-09-01

    The zooplankton community in the eastern Gulf of Mexico was investigated to determine the quantity and taxonomic composition of forage available to higher trophic levels and to provide a data base for future trophodynamic modelling. Standing stock (1.2 g m -2, dw) in the upper 1000 m is in the range for oligotrophic low-latitude boundary currents but is greater than in central gyre areas. Abundance decreases exponentially with depth, over half the biomass occuring in the upper 200 m. Diel variations are apparent, the greatest differences in biomass occuring in the upper 50 m and at 300 to 350 m. Copepods were dominant, contributing over 80% of the number and half the net-caught biomass. The zooplankton community is diverse, 21 genera individually exceeding 1% of the biomass in the 0 to 100-m layer. Grazers (herbivores, detritivores, omnivores) were 66% of the 0 to 1000-m standing stock and carnivores 34%, their biomass in the epipelagic zone above the base of the thermocline (150 m) at night increasing 46 and 57%, respectively. Zooplankton biomass available as forage for higher trophic levels is most concentrated in the upper 50 m, whereas, paradoxically, the zooplanktivorous micronekton, the myctophid fishes in particular, are centered deeper, primarily between 50 and 150 m.

  1. A decade of predatory control of zooplankton species composition of Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Makarewicz, Joseph C.; Bertram, Paul; Lewis, Theodore; Brown, Edward H., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    From 1983 to 1992, 71 species representing 38 genera from the Calanoida, Cladocera, Cyclopoida, Mysidacea, Rotifera, Mollusca and Harpacticoida comprised the offshore zooplankton community of Lake Michigan. Our data demonstrate that the composition and abundance of the calanoid community after 1983 is not unlike that of 1960s and that species diversity of the calanoid community is more diverse than the cladoceran community in the 1990s as compared to the early 1980s. Even though the relative biomass of the cladocerans has remained similar over the 1983-1993 period, the species diversity and evenness of the Cladocera community in the early 1990s is unlike anything that has been previously reported for Lake Michigan. Cladocera dominance is centered in one species, Daphnia galeata mendotae, and only three species of Cladocera were observed in the pelagic region of the lake in 1991 and 1992. Nutrient levels, phytoplankton biomass, and the abundance of planktivorous alewife and bloater chub and Bythotrephes are examined as possible causes of these changes in zooplankton species composition. The increase in Rotifera biomass, but not Crustacea, was correlated with an increase in relative biomass of unicellular algae. Food web models suggest Bythotrephes will cause Lake Michigan's plankton to return to a community similar to that of the 1970s; that is Diaptomus dominated. Such a change has occurred. However, correlational analysis suggest that alewife and bloater chubs (especially juveniles) are affecting size and biomass of larger species of zooplankton as well as Bythotrephes.

  2. Modeling Population Dynamics Andre M. de Roos

    E-print Network

    Roos, André M. de

    for resources 37 4.1 Intraspecific competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 i and graphical analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 4.2 Interspecific competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 4.2.1 Lotka-Volterra competition model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 4

  3. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  4. Model stars for the modelling of galaxies: $?$-enhancement in stellar populations models

    E-print Network

    P. Coelho

    2008-02-19

    Stellar population (SP) models are an essential tool to understand the observations of galaxies and clusters. One of the main ingredients of a SP model is a library of stellar spectra, and both empirical and theoretical libraries can been used for this purpose. Here I will start by giving a short overview of the pros and cons of using theoretical libraries, i.e. model stars, to produce our galaxy models. Then I will address the question on how theoretical libraries can be used to model stellar populations, in particular to explore the effect of $\\alpha$-enhancement on spectral observables.

  5. Analysis of six groups of zooplankton in samples taken in 1978/79 at the proposed OTEC site in the eastern Gulf of Mexico off Tampa Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Flock, M.E.; Hopkins, T.L.

    1981-05-01

    Continued analysis has been made of the 33 zooplankton collections made at the proposed OTEC site in the Gulf of Mexico off Tampa Bay. Six groups of zooplankton - siphonophores (Calycophora), pteropods (Thecosomata), chaetognaths, thaliaceans, euphausiids and amphipods were quantitatively investigated. Numbers and biomass were determined for all taxa and diurnal, seasonal and depth trends were discussed. Considering the present study and the previous investigation of the copepod population, this proposed OTEC site is probably one of the faunistically better known locales in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

  6. Population-level effects in Amphiascus tenuiremis: contrasting matrix- and individual-based population models.

    PubMed

    Lundström Belleza, Elin; Brinkmann, Markus; Preuss, Thomas G; Breitholtz, Magnus

    2014-12-01

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is generally based on individual-level endpoints, even though protection goals in ERA intend higher biological levels. Population models have the potential to translate individual-level endpoints to population-level responses and range from simple demographic equations to highly complex individual based models (IBMs). The aims of the current study were to develop a matrix model (MM) with the structure and parameterization proposed in the draft OECD guideline "Harpacticoid copepod development and reproduction test with Amphiascus tenuiremis", and an IBM with the same data requirements. Experimental data from lindane exposure from validation studies of the OECD guideline was projected to the population level. Lindane does not only cause effects on survival and reproduction, but also on the time it takes to develop from larvae to adults. The two model approaches were contrasted in terms of their ability to properly project these effects on development. The MM projected smaller effects of the lindane treatments on population growth rate compared to the IBM since in its proposed structure, it did not include the delay in development explicitly. Population-level EC10 for population growth rate in the IBM was at the same level as the most sensitive individual-level endpoint, whereas the EC10 from the MM was not as sensitive. Based on these findings, our conclusion is that the IBM (or an improved MM) should be used for datasets including shifts in development, whereas the simpler MM is sufficient for datasets where only mortality and reproduction are affected, or as a screening tool in lower-tier population-level ERA. PMID:25456235

  7. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  8. A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

    2008-01-01

    The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

  9. Modeling populations of rotationally mixed massive stars

    Microsoft Academic Search

    I. Brott

    2011-01-01

    Massive stars can be considered as cosmic engines. With their high luminosities, strong stellar winds and violent deaths they drive the evolution of galaxies through-out the history of the universe. Despite the importance of massive stars, their evolution is still poorly understood. Two major issues have plagued evolutionary models of massive stars until today: mixing and mass loss On the

  10. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals.

    PubMed

    Zipkin, Elise F; Thorson, James T; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J; Grant, Evan H Campbell; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard B; Letcher, Benjamin H; Royle, J Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark-recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark-recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources. PMID:24649642

  11. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  12. Joint Modeling of Anatomical and Functional Connectivity for Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Rathi, Yogesh; Kubicki, Marek; Westin, Carl-Fredrik; Golland, Polina

    2015-01-01

    We propose a novel probabilistic framework to merge information from diffusion weighted imaging tractography and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging correlations to identify connectivity patterns in the brain. In particular, we model the interaction between latent anatomical and functional connectivity and present an intuitive extension to population studies. We employ the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters by maximizing the data likelihood. The method simultaneously infers the templates of latent connectivity for each population and the differences in connectivity between the groups. We demonstrate our method on a schizophrenia study. Our model identifies significant increases in functional connectivity between the parietal/posterior cingulate region and the frontal lobe and reduced functional connectivity between the parietal/posterior cingulate region and the temporal lobe in schizophrenia. We further establish that our model learns predictive differences between the control and clinical populations, and that combining the two modalities yields better results than considering each one in isolation. PMID:21878411

  13. Population synthesis models in 2D/3D: some rules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cerviño, M.

    2013-05-01

    Population synthesis models are a tool extensively used to make inferences about the evolutionary status of stellar populations. In this work I examine the implicit priors assumed to obtain inferences by comparing observational data with populations synthesis models. As a result from this kind of study, I show how a higher spatial resolution can be used to obtain better global (but not spatially detailed) properties of the system. I also show that a pixel-by-pixel (or IFU by IFU) analysis would provide biased results unless they take into account the correlations of stellar populations between different resolution elements (pixels or IFUs) and a prior hypothesis on the projected stellar mass distribution (equivalent to a prior hypothesis on the star formation history)

  14. Generalized population models and the nature of genetic drift

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ricky Der; Charles L. Epstein; Joshua B. Plotkin

    2011-01-01

    The Wright–Fisher model of allele dynamics forms the basis for most theoretical and applied research in population genetics. Our understanding of genetic drift, and its role in suppressing the deterministic forces of Darwinian selection has relied on the specific form of sampling inherent to the Wright–Fisher model and its diffusion limit. Here we introduce and analyze a broad class of

  15. A sharp global stability result for a discrete population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liz, Eduardo

    2007-06-01

    We get a sharp global stability result for a first order difference equation modelling the growth of bobwhite quail populations. The corresponding higher-dimensional model is also discussed, and our stability conditions improve other recent results for the same equation.

  16. A POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PARTICULATE MATTER: SHEDS-PM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has developed a population exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) that will be publicly available in Fall 2002. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS-PM) model uses a probabilistic approach ...

  17. Modeling Hydrology-Habitat-Fish Population Linkages for Lake Erie

    Microsoft Academic Search

    RICHARD M. ANDERSON; BENJAMIN F. HOBBS; JOSEPH F. KOONCE; ANA B. LOCCI

    Most large scale ecological models focus on population dynamics or nutrient and energy flows without explicitly considering habitat limitations. For example, in Lake Erie, tributary and near-shore habitat limit recruitment; yet these effects are not represented in existing models. Habitats will change with alterations of hydrology (e.g., due to climate change) or land use; moreover, such alterations can be deliberate

  18. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department of Mathematics Towson University May 24, 2008 Mike O'Leary (Towson University) A Diffusion Model in Genetics May determine the long-time behavior of the total genetic variance? Portions of this work are joint with Judith

  19. The risks and reconstruction model for resettling displaced populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael Cernea

    1997-01-01

    Involuntary population displacements and resettlement entailed by development programs have reached a magnitude and frequency that give these phenomena worldwide relevance and require policy-guided solutions. The author extracts the general trends and common characteristics revealed by a vast body of empirical data, to construct a theoretical model of displacement and reconstruction. The model captures the socioeconomic content of both segments

  20. Modeling Of Honey Bee And Varroa Mite Population Dynamics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Roger Hoopingarner

    The life history of the honey bee Apis mellifera and the bee mite Farroa jacobsoni and their interactions were modeled using a commercial software package known as Stella II. Stella II provides a non- mathematically intensive modeling technique that allows the user to generate a series of differential equations that can track a population through time with a minimum set

  1. FISHERY-ORIENTED MODEL OF MARYLAND OYSTER POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We used time series data to calibrate a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters were fishing mortality, natural mortality, recruitment, and carrying capacity. We calibrated for the Maryland bay as a whole and separately for 3 salinity z...

  2. STELLAR POPULATION MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ELEMENT ABUNDANCES. I. SENSITIVITY OF STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    E-print Network

    Lee, Hyun-chul

    STELLAR POPULATION MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ELEMENT ABUNDANCES. I. SENSITIVITY OF STELLAR EVOLUTION spectra but little has been done to address similar issues in the stellar evolution models that underlie most stellar population models. Stellar evolution models will primarily be influenced by changes

  3. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 ?g g?1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

  4. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. (Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City (United States)); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  5. A model for dengue disease with variable human population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lourdes Esteva; Cristobal Vargas

    1999-01-01

    .  ?A model for the transmission of dengue fever with variable human population size is analyzed. We find three threshold parameters\\u000a which govern the existence of the endemic proportion equilibrium, the increase of the human population size, and the behaviour\\u000a of the total number of human infectives. We prove the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points using the theory\\u000a of

  6. Size-specific sensitivity: Applying a new structured population model

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, M.R.; Ellner, S.P.; Dixon, P.M.

    2000-03-01

    Matrix population models require the population to be divided into discrete stage classes. In many cases, especially when classes are defined by a continuous variable, such as length or mass, there are no natural breakpoints, and the division is artificial. The authors introduce the integral projection model, which eliminates the need for division into discrete classes, without requiring any additional biological assumptions. Like a traditional matrix model, the integral projection model provides estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, stable size distribution, reproductive values, and sensitivities of the growth rate to changes in vital rates. However, where the matrix model represents the size distributions, reproductive value, and sensitivities as step functions (constant within a stage class), the integral projection model yields smooth curves for each of these as a function of individual size. The authors describe a method for fitting the model to data, and they apply this method to data on an endangered plant species, northern monkshood (Aconitum noveboracense), with individuals classified by stem diameter. The matrix and integral models yield similar estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, but the reproductive values and sensitivities in the matrix model are sensitive to the choice of stage classes. The integral projection model avoids this problem and yields size-specific sensitivities that are not affected by stage duration. These general properties of the integral projection model will make it advantageous for other populations where there is no natural division of individuals into stage classes.

  7. Mesoscale physical variability affects zooplankton production in the Labrador Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yebra, L.; Harris, R. P.; Head, E. J. H.; Yashayaev, I.; Harris, L. R.; Hirst, A. G.

    2009-05-01

    Surface distribution (0-100 m) of zooplankton biomass and specific aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (AARS) activity, as a proxy of structural growth, were assessed during winter 2002 and spring 2004 in the Labrador Sea. Two fronts formed by strong boundary currents, several anticyclonic eddies and a cyclonic eddy were studied. The spatial contrasts observed in seawater temperature, salinity and fluorescence, associated with those mesoscale structures, affected the distributions of both zooplankton biomass and specific AARS activity, particularly those of the smaller individuals. Production rates of large organisms (200-1000 ?m) were significantly related to microzooplankton biomass (63-200 ?m), suggesting a cascade effect from hydrography through microzooplankton to large zooplankton. Water masses defined the biomass distribution of the three dominant species: Calanus glacialis was restricted to cold waters on the shelves while Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus finmarchicus were widespread from Canada to Greenland. Zooplankton production was up to ten-fold higher inside anticyclonic eddies than in the surrounding waters. The recent warming tendency observed in the Labrador Sea will likely generate weaker convection and less energetic mesoscale eddies. This may lead to a decrease in zooplankton growth and production in the Labrador basin.

  8. Demographic modeling of transient amplifying cell population growth.

    PubMed

    Nakaoka, Shinji; Inaba, Hisashi

    2014-04-01

    Quantitative measurement for the timings of cell division and death with the application of mathematical models is a standard way to estimate kinetic parameters of cellular proliferation. On the basis of label-based measurement data, several quantitative mathematical models describing short-term dynamics of transient cellular proliferation have been proposed and extensively studied. In the present paper, we show that existing mathematical models for cell population growth can be reformulated as a specific case of generation progression models, a variant of parity progression models developed in mathematical demography. Generation progression ratio (GPR) is defined for a generation progression model as an expected ratio of population increase or decrease via cell division. We also apply a stochastic simulation algorithm which is capable of representing the population growth dynamics of transient amplifying cells for various inter-event time distributions of cell division and death. Demographic modeling and the application of stochastic simulation algorithm presented here can be used as a unified platform to systematically investigate the short term dynamics of cell population growth. PMID:24245725

  9. Equivalence relationships between stage-structured population models.

    PubMed

    Yearsley, Jonathan M; Fletcher, David

    2002-01-01

    Matrix population models are widely applied in conservation ecology to help predict future population trends and guide conservation effort. Researchers must decide upon an appropriate level of model complexity, yet there is little theoretical work to guide such decisions. In this paper we present an analysis of a stage-structured model, and prove that the model's structure can be simplified and parameterised in such a way that the long-term growth rate, the stable-stage distribution and the generation time are all invariant to the simplification. We further show that for certain structures of model the simplified models require less effort in data collection. We also discuss features of the models which are not invariant to the simplification and the implications of our results for the selection of an appropriate model. We illustrate the ideas using a population model for short-tailed shearwaters (Puffinus tenuirostris). In this example, model simplification can increase parameter elasticity, indicating that an intermediate level of complexity is likely to be preferred. PMID:12208612

  10. Impact of zooplankton grazing on Alexandrium blooms in the offshore Gulf of Maine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Jefferson T.; Borkman, David G.

    2005-09-01

    Zooplankton grazing was investigated by shipboard experiments during natural blooms of Alexandrium spp. in the offshore Gulf of Maine in spring and/or summer of 1998, 2000, and 2001. Grazing studies were done in conjunction with studies of accumulation of Alexandrium toxins in the zooplankton, as part of the ECOHAB-Gulf of Maine regional program. Several species of copepods, marine cladocerans, and appendicularians were allowed to graze upon natural phytoplankton assemblages, at ambient temperatures (14-17 °C). Grazing was measured by quantitative microscopic analyses of disappearance of phytoplankton cells in initial, control, and experimental food suspensions. Thus, we were able to examine grazing upon Alexandrium in comparison to grazing on other co-occurring phytoplankton taxa. Even during Alexandrium "blooms," this dinoflagellate was a minor component of the overall phytoplankton assemblage. It was present at stations where grazing experiments were conducted at levels of 0.12-7.57×10 3 cells l -1, or 0.03-3.93% of total phytoplankton cells. Maximum ingestion of Alexandrium accounted for only up to 3.2% of total cells ingested. Phytoplankton assemblages were dominated by athecate microflagellates, and to a lesser extent by diatoms and non-toxic dinoflagellates. Microflagellates were present at abundances of 159.62-793.93 cells ml -1, or 60.6-95.56% of total cells. Grazing on microflagellates accounted for 35.59-98.21% of total grazing. Grazing on Alexandrium spp. and microflagellates was generally non-selective, with these taxa being ingested in similar proportions to their availability in food assemblages. Grazing on diatoms was selective, with diatoms being disproportionately ingested, compared to their proportions in food assemblages. There were no apparent adverse effects of Alexandrium on grazers during incubations of 18-24 h, and grazer survival was 100%. Estimated daily zooplankton grazing impact on Alexandrium spp. field populations by field populations of experimental grazers averaged 5.79% (range=0-117%). Extrapolating experimentally determined grazing rates to total zooplankton assemblages increased potential grazing impact to 0-667.77% (mean=114.7%). However, these potential impacts are likely overestimations, because toxin accumulation data indicated that many of the most-abundant zooplankters ( Oithona similis copepodites and copepod nauplii) likely graze only minimally upon Alexandrium spp. Thus, antipredation effects of high concentrations of Alexandrium on some grazers reported from some laboratory studies may only occur rarely in nature, because of low individual zooplankter grazing rates on Alexandrium, and dilution of grazing upon it by grazing on other food sources such as abundant microflagellates and diatoms.

  11. Imazethapyr and imazapic, bispyribac-sodium and penoxsulam: Zooplankton and dissipation in subtropical rice paddy water.

    PubMed

    Reimche, Geovane B; Machado, Sérgio L O; Oliveira, Maria Angélica; Zanella, Renato; Dressler, Valderi Luiz; Flores, Erico M M; Gonçalves, Fábio F; Donato, Filipe F; Nunes, Matheus A G

    2015-05-01

    Herbicides are very effective at eliminating weed and are largely used in rice paddy around the world, playing a fundamental role in maximizing yield. Therefore, considering the flooded environment of rice paddies, it is necessary to understand the side effects on non-target species. Field experiment studies were carried out during two rice growing seasons in order to address how the commonly-used herbicides imazethapyr and imazapic, bispyribac-sodium and penoxsulam, used at recommended dosage, affect water quality and the non-target zooplankton community using outdoor rice field microcosm set-up. The shortest (4.9days) and longest (12.2days) herbicide half-life mean, estimated of the dissipation rate (k) is shown for imazethapyr and bispyribac-sodium, respectively. Some water quality parameters (pH, conductivity, hardness, BOD5, boron, potassium, magnesium, phosphorus and chlorides) achieved slightly higher values at the herbicide treatment. Zooplankton community usually quickly recovered from the tested herbicide impact. Generally, herbicides led to an increase of cladocera, copepods and nauplius population, while rotifer population decreased, with recovery at the end of the experiment (88days after herbicide treatment). PMID:25659307

  12. Gaussian mixture models and the population synthesis of radio pulsars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igoshev, A. P.; Popov, S. B.

    2013-09-01

    Recently, Lee et al. used Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to study the radio pulsar population. P - Pdot plane, they found four clusters. We develop this approach further and apply it to different synthetic pulsar populations in order to determine whether the method can effectively select groups of sources that are physically different. We check several combinations of initial conditions as well as the models of pulsar evolution and the selection effects. We find that in the case of rapidly evolving objects, the GMM is oversensitive to parameter variations and does not produce stable results. We conclude that the method does not help much to identify the subpopulations with different initial parameters or/and evolutionary paths. For the same reason, the GMM does not discriminate effectively between theoretical population synthesis models of normal radio pulsars.

  13. A new model with delay for mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Wan, Hui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we formulate a new model with maturation delay for mosquito population incorporating the impact of blood meal resource for mosquito reproduction. Our results suggest that except for the usual crowded effect for adult mosquitoes, the impact of blood meal resource in a given region determines the mosquito abundance, it is also important for the population dynamics of mosquito which may induce Hopf bifurcation. The existence of a stable periodic solution is proved both analytically and numerically. The new model for mosquito also suggests that the resources for mosquito reproduction should not be ignored or mixed with the impact of blood meal resources for mosquito survival and both impacts should be considered in the model of mosquito population. The impact of maturation delay is also analyzed. PMID:25365606

  14. The importance of zooplankton-protozoan trophic couplings in Lake Michigan

    Microsoft Academic Search

    HUNTER J. CARRICK; GARY L. FAHNENSTIEL; EUGENE F. STOERMER; ROBERT G. WETZEL

    1991-01-01

    Abstract The importance,of the zooplankton-protozoan,trophic coupling was determined,experimentally by measured,changes in protozoan,growth rates with increasing zooplankton,biomass. In five of six experiments conducted in Lake Michigan, a significant inverse relationship between protozoan growth and zooplankton biomass was observed (avg r2 = 70%), Zooplankton clearance rates on protozoan assemblages (range, 1.0-6.2 ml (pg dry wt)-I d ‘1 were comparable to those previously

  15. Bythotrephes invasion elevates trophic position of zooplankton and fish: implications for contaminant biomagnification

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Michael D. RennieAngela; Angela L. Strecker; Michelle E. Palmer

    We estimated the effects of Bythotrephes longimanus invasion on the trophic position (TP) of zooplankton communities and lake herring, Coregonus artedi. Temporal changes in lacustrine zooplankton communities following Bythotrephes invasion were contrasted with non-invaded reference lakes, and along with published information on zooplankton and herring\\u000a diets, formed the basis of estimated changes in TP. The TP of zooplankton communities and

  16. Effects of prey escape ability, flow speed, and predator feeding mode on zooplankton capture by barnacles

    Microsoft Academic Search

    G. Trager; Y. Achituv; A. Genin

    1994-01-01

    Experimental studies of feeding on zooplankton often involve the use of non-evasive Artemia spp. to represent zooplanktonic prey. Some zooplankton, however, such as copepods, are potentially evasive due to possession of effective predator-avoidance mechanisms such as high-speed escape swimming. In the present study, we compared the efficiencies with which non-evasive (A. salina) and evasive (copepods) zooplankton were captured by a

  17. Resource requirements of the Pacific leatherback turtle population.

    PubMed

    Jones, T Todd; Bostrom, Brian L; Hastings, Mervin D; Van Houtan, Kyle S; Pauly, Daniel; Jones, David R

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific population of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) has drastically declined in the last 25 years. This decline has been linked to incidental capture by fisheries, egg and meat harvesting, and recently, to climate variability and resource limitation. Here we couple growth rates with feeding experiments and food intake functions to estimate daily energy requirements of leatherbacks throughout their development. We then estimate mortality rates from available data, enabling us to raise food intake (energy requirements) of the individual to the population level. We place energy requirements in context of available resources (i.e., gelatinous zooplankton abundance). Estimated consumption rates suggest that a single leatherback will eat upward of 1000 metric tonnes (t) of jellyfish in its lifetime (range 924-1112) with the Pacific population consuming 2.1×10(6) t of jellyfish annually (range 1.0-3.7×10(6)) equivalent to 4.2×10(8) megajoules (MJ) (range 2.0-7.4×10(8)). Model estimates suggest 2-7 yr-old juveniles comprise the majority of the Pacific leatherback population biomass and account for most of the jellyfish consumption (1.1×10(6) t of jellyfish or 2.2×10(8) MJ per year). Leatherbacks are large gelatinous zooplanktivores with consumption to biomass ratios of 96 (up to 192 if feeding strictly on low energy density Cnidarians); they, therefore, have a large capacity to impact gelatinous zooplankton landscapes. Understanding the leatherback's needs for gelatinous zooplankton, versus the availability of these resources, can help us better assess population trends and the influence of climate induced resource limitations to reproductive output. PMID:23071518

  18. Populations

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    Janet R. Galle

    2005-01-01

    This chapter introduces population as a group of the same kind of organisms in a given space at a given time. The activities in this section will provide students with the opportunity to define population, estimate populations in a community, and count and compare populations within a community. Students will gain the knowledge in describing plant and animal populations living in a community. They will also experiment with plant populations to control growth and development, not to mention discuss the effects of abiotic conditions on a community.

  19. Influence of a multiyear event of low salinity on the zooplankton from Mexican eco-regions of the California Current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaniegos, Bertha E.

    2009-12-01

    Data are presented from the southern part of the California Current System (CCS) for the period 1997-2007, derived from the IMECOCAL monitoring program. Apart from El Niño 1997 to 1998, and La Niña 1998-1999 the strongest perturbation occurred in 2002 due to an intrusion of subarctic water affecting all the CCS. The response of zooplankton biomass to the strong cooling and freshening of the upper layer was an immediate drop followed by a progressive recovery between 2003 and 2007. Though the low salinity influence ended in 2006, the increased zooplankton trend continued, reinforced by increased upwelling activity beginning 2005 off north Baja California region (30-32°N) and beginning 2006 off central Baja California (24-30°N). Multiple regression analysis was done between regional variables and Upwelling Index (UI) and two basin-scale proxies: the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The significant influence of the NPGO on surface salinity, salinity stratification, zooplankton volume and secondary consumers (zooplankton carnivores) suggests a basin scale control on these variables more than local mechanisms. The signature of the NPGO was also evident in the base of the trophic web, but more related to the group of crustacean herbivores in the north eco-region, and the tunicates in central Baja California. In this last region, the effect from NPGO on the zooplankton volume and tunicates was antagonist with UI indicative of similar importance of basin and local processes. However, when the time interval is limited to the post-subarctic intrusion (2003-2007) the significance of multiple regression models and physical variables was lost. Therefore, though data and bio-physical coupling analysis off Baja California suggest a better relation with NPGO compared to PDO, it is still not sufficient to explain the magnitude of the perturbation observed in 2002.

  20. Mapping in Structured Populations by Resample Model Averaging

    PubMed Central

    Valdar, William; Holmes, Christopher C.; Mott, Richard; Flint, Jonathan

    2009-01-01

    Highly recombinant populations derived from inbred lines, such as advanced intercross lines and heterogeneous stocks, can be used to map loci far more accurately than is possible with standard intercrosses. However, the varying degrees of relatedness that exist between individuals complicate analysis, potentially leading to many false positive signals. We describe a method to deal with these problems that does not require pedigree information and accounts for model uncertainty through model averaging. In our method, we select multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) models using forward selection applied to resampled data sets obtained by nonparametric bootstrapping and subsampling. We provide model-averaged statistics about the probability of loci or of multilocus regions being included in model selection, and this leads to more accurate identification of QTL than by single-locus mapping. The generality of our approach means it can potentially be applied to any population of unknown structure. PMID:19474203

  1. Ciliate Epibionts Associated with Crustacean Zooplankton in German Lakes: Distribution, Motility, and Bacterivory

    PubMed Central

    Bickel, Samantha L.; Tang, Kam W.; Grossart, Hans-Peter

    2012-01-01

    Ciliate epibionts associated with crustacean zooplankton are widespread in aquatic systems, but their ecological roles are little known. We studied the occurrence of ciliate epibionts on crustacean zooplankton in nine German lakes with different limnological features during the summer of 2011. We also measured the detachment and re-attachment rates of the ciliates, changes in their motility, and the feeding rates of attached vs. detached ciliate epibionts. Epibionts were found in all lakes sampled except an acidic lake with large humic inputs. Epibiont prevalence was as high as 80.96% on the cladoceran Daphnia cucullata, 67.17% on the cladoceran Diaphanosoma brachyurum, and 46.67% on the calanoid copepod Eudiaptomus gracilis. Both cladoceran groups typically had less than 10 epibionts per individual, while the epibiont load on E. gracilis ranged from 1 to >30 epibionts per individual. After the death of the zooplankton host, the peritrich ciliate epibiont Epistylis sp. detached in an exponential fashion with a half-life of 5?min, and 98% detached within 30?min, leaving behind the stalks used for attachment. Immediately after detachment, the ciliates were immotile, but 62% became motile within 60?min. When a new host was present, only 27% reattached after 120?min. The average measured ingestion rate and clearance rate of Epistylis were 11,745 bacteria ciliate?1?h?1 and 24.33??l ciliate?1?h?1, respectively. Despite their high feeding rates, relatively low epibiont abundances were observed in the field, which suggests either diversion of energy to stalk formation, high metabolic loss by the epibionts, or high mortality among the epibiont populations. PMID:22783247

  2. Modeling Climate Change and Sturgeon Populations in the Missouri River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Columbia Environmental Research Center (CERC), in collaboration with researchers from the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, is conducting research to address effects of climate change on sturgeon populations (Scaphirhynchus spp.) in the Missouri River. The CERC is conducting laboratory, field, and modeling research to identify causative factors for the responses of fish populations to natural and human-induced environmental changes and using this information to understand sensitivity of sturgeon populations to potential climate change in the Missouri River drainage basin. Sturgeon response information is being used to parameterize models predicting future population trends. These models will provide a set of tools for natural resource managers to assess management strategies in the context of global climate change. This research complements and builds on the ongoing Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Program (CSRP) at the CERC. The CSRP is designed to provide information critical to restoration of the Missouri River ecosystem and the endangered pallid sturgeon (S. albus). Current research is being funded by USGS through the National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) and the Science Support Partnership (SSP) Program that is held by the USGS and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The national mission of the NCCWSC is to improve the capacity of fish and wildlife agencies to respond to climate change and to address high-priority climate change effects on fish and wildlife. Within the national context, the NCCWSC research on the Missouri River focuses on temporal and spatial downscaling and associated uncertainty in modeling climate change effects on sturgeon species in the Missouri River. The SSP research focuses on improving survival and population estimates for pallid sturgeon population models.

  3. Thermal habitat constraints on zooplankton species associated with Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the US Northeast Continental Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Kane, Joe; Hare, Jonathan A.; Lough, R. Gregory; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Fogarty, Michael J.; Nye, Janet A.

    2013-09-01

    The US Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing a period of increasing temperature levels and range, which impacts the quantity of thermal habitats within the ecosystem. With increasing temperatures, the amount of warmer, surface water thermal habitats (16-27 °C) has increased while there has been a reciprocal decline in cooler water habitats (5-15 °C). These cooler water habitats are the most abundant and comprise the core habitats of the ecosystem. The coldest thermal habitats (1-4 °C), however, have increased slightly in amount or have remained constant, reflecting a discontinuity in the progression of warming along a latitudinal gradient. This discontinuity may be the result of recent changes in the circulation of water masses in the northern Gulf of Maine, potentially associated with the Labrador Current. The contraction of core thermal habitats appears to have had biological consequences on multiple trophic levels. In particular, two zooplankton species associated with the larval feeding of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, have declined in abundance in the same areas where cod populations have exhibited continually poor recruitment. The zooplankton species group Pseudocalanus spp., which is associated with winter-spawning cod, has declined on Georges Bank and in the Eastern Gulf of Maine. The zooplankton Centropages typicus has declined in the Gulf of Maine during late summer into fall, potentially affecting spring-spawning cod in that area. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that portions of the population complex of cod have lower reproductive output due to changes in zooplankton abundance, which we associate with the distribution of temperatures within the ecosystem.

  4. High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

    PubMed

    Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agust?, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

    2014-01-01

    High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean. PMID:25309996

  5. High Mortality of Red Sea Zooplankton under Ambient Solar Radiation

    PubMed Central

    Al-Aidaroos, Ali M.; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M. O.; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agust?, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2014-01-01

    High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h?1, five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h?1% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean. PMID:25309996

  6. YONSEI EVOLUTIONARY POPULATION SYNTHESIS (YEPS) MODEL. I. SPECTROSCOPIC EVOLUTION OF SIMPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Lee, Young-Wook, E-mail: ywlee2@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Astronomy and Center for Galaxy Evolution Research, Yonsei University, Seoul 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-01-15

    We present a series of papers on the 2012 version of the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) model, which was constructed based on over 20 years of research. This first paper delineates the spectroscopic aspect of integrated light from stellar populations older than 1 Gyr. The standard YEPS is based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provides absorption line indices of the Lick/IDS system and high-order Balmer lines for simple stellar populations as functions of stellar parameters, such as metallicity, age, and {alpha}-element mixture. Special care has been taken to incorporate a systematic contribution from horizontal-branch (HB) stars, which alters the temperature-sensitive Balmer lines significantly, resulting in up to a 5 Gyr difference in the age estimation of old, metal-poor stellar populations. We also find that HBs exert an appreciable effect not only on the Balmer lines but also on the metallicity-sensitive lines, including the magnesium index. This is critical in explaining the intriguing bimodality found in index distributions of globular clusters in massive galaxies and to accurately derive spectroscopic metallicities from various indices. A full set of the spectroscopic and photometric YEPS model data of the entire parameter space is currently downloadable at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.

  7. Zooplankton species composition, abundance and biomass on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: The potential role of water-column stability and nutrients in structuring the zooplankton community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coyle, Kenneth O.; Pinchuk, Alexei I.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Napp, Jeffrey M.

    2008-08-01

    The southeastern Bering Sea sustains one of the largest fisheries in the United States, as well as wildlife resources that support valuable tourist and subsistence economies. The fish and wildlife populations in turn are sustained by a food web linking primary producers to apex predators through the zooplankton community. Recent shifts in climate toward warmer conditions may threaten these resources by altering productivity and trophic relationships in the ecosystem on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf. We examined the zooplankton community near the Pribilof Islands and on the middle shelf of the southeastern Bering Sea in summer of 1999 and 2004 to document differences and similarities in species composition, abundance and biomass by region and year. Between August 1999 and August 2004, the summer zooplankton community of the middle shelf shifted from large to small species. Significant declines were observed in the biomass of large scyphozoans ( Chrysaora melanaster), large copepods ( Calanus marshallae), arrow worms ( Sagitta elegans) and euphausiids ( Thysanoessa raschii, T. inermis) between 1999 and 2004. In contrast, significantly higher densities of the small copepods ( Pseudocalanus spp., Oithona similis) and small hydromedusae ( Euphysa flammea) were observed in 2004 relative to 1999. Stomach analyses of young-of-the-year (age 0) pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma) from the middle shelf indicated a dietary shift from large to small copepods in 2004 relative to 1999. The shift in the zooplankton community was accompanied by a 3-fold increase in water-column stability in 2004 relative to 1999, primarily due to warmer water above the thermocline, with a mean temperature of 7.3 °C in 1999 and 12.6 °C in 2004. The elevated water-column stability and warmer conditions may have influenced the zooplankton composition by lowering summer primary production and selecting for species more tolerant of a warm, oligotrophic environment. A time series of temperature from the middle shelf indicates that the warmer conditions in 2004 are part of a trend rather than an expression of interannual variability. These results suggest that if climate on the Bering Sea shelf continues to warm, the zooplankton community may shift from large to small taxa which could strongly impact apex predators and the economies they support.

  8. Spatial-temporal scales of synchrony in marine zooplankton biomass and abundance patterns: A world-wide comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batchelder, Harold P.; Mackas, David L.; O'Brien, Todd D.

    2012-05-01

    Large scale synchrony in the fluctuations of abundance or biomass of marine fish populations in regions on opposite sides of an ocean basin or in different oceans have been viewed as externally forced by correlated environmental stochasticity (e.g., common external forcing), most often as atmospheric teleconnections of basin-to-global scale atmospheric forcing, such as the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Specific causal mechanisms have been difficult to unequivocally discover, but possible mechanisms include influences on habitat temperatures, productivity operating through bottom-up (trophodynamic) mechanisms or direct climate influence on the fish populations (top-down mechanisms). For small pelagic fishes (sardines and anchovies) in widely separated large marine ecosystems that lack obvious ocean interconnectivity, it has been argued that the teleconnections may be atmospheric, acting on the fishes directly and propagating to the ecosystem from the middle out (wasp-waist species). Zooplankton biomass or abundance time series data from >100 sites world-wide are used to examine the spatial scales of coherent temporal synchrony. If spatially correlated environmental factors (like climate) are important for creating synchrony in fish populations via bottom-up effects (trophic interactions involving fish prey, e.g., zooplankton), then we would expect to observe synchrony in fluctuations of zooplankton biomass/numbers at spatial scales similar to those found for fish species. Zooplankton biomass/abundance have 50% spatial decorrelation scales of ca. 700-1400 km and scales of significant coherence that extend to separation distances of ca. 3000 km. These are also the spatial scales of environmental (sea surface temperature) synchrony from our global analysis. These scales are slightly greater than the 50% decorrelation scales of ca. 150-700 km for recruitment synchrony in Atlantic marine fish and survival and recruitment synchrony of Northeast Pacific salmonids (150-1000 km depending on species). However, the spatial scales of synchrony of annual zooplankton biomass anomalies in the Humboldt Current, California Current and Kuroshio ecosystems of the Pacific are much too small (ca. 2000 km) to be directly causal of the basin-scale (7000-15,000 km) synchrony exhibited by sardine and/or anchovy populations in those ecosystems.

  9. Human population dynamics revisited with the logistic model: How much can be modeled and predicted?

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Cesare Marchetti; Perrin S. Meyer; Jesse H. Ausubel

    1996-01-01

    Decrease or growth of population comes from the interplay of death and birth (and locally, migration). We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth), the key factors totaling population. For death, once an individual has legally entered society, the

  10. Avoiding Extinction in a Managed Single Species Population Model by means of Anticipative Control

    E-print Network

    Burke, Mark

    Avoiding Extinction in a Managed Single Species Population Model by means of Anticipative Control which end in a population collapse and consequent extinction. In a managed environment, it might population models, Allee effect, extinction, anticipative control 1 ANTICIPATORY SYSTEMS Traditionally

  11. Intraspecific Autochthonous and Allochthonous Resource Use by Zooplankton in a Humic Lake during the Transitions between Winter, Summer and Fall

    PubMed Central

    Berggren, Martin; Bergström, Ann-Kristin; Karlsson, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal patterns in assimilation of externally produced, allochthonous, organic matter into aquatic food webs are poorly understood, especially in brown-water lakes. We studied the allochthony (share biomass of terrestrial origin) in cladoceran, calanoid and cyclopoid micro-crustacean zooplankton from late winter to fall during two years in a small humic lake (Sweden). The use of allochthonous resources was important for sustaining a small population of calanoids in the water column during late winter. However, in summer the calanoids shifted to 100% herbivory, increasing their biomass several-fold by making efficient use of the pelagic primary production. In contrast, the cyclopoids and cladocerans remained at high levels of allochthony throughout the seasons, both groups showing the mean allochthony of 0.56 (range in mean 0.17-0.79 and 0.34-0.75, for the respective group, depending on model parameters). Our study shows that terrestrial organic matter can be an important resource for cyclopoids and cladocerans on an annual basis, forming a significant link between terrestrial organic matter and the higher trophic levels of the food web, but it can also be important for sustaining otherwise herbivorous calanoids during periods of low primary production in late winter. PMID:25764501

  12. Usefulness of spatially explicit population models in land management

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, M.G. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Arthaud, G.J. [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States); Engstrom, R.T. [Tall Timbers Research, Inc., Tallahassee, FL (United States); Hejl, S.J. [US Forest Service, Missoula, MT (United States); Liu, Jianguo [Harvard Institute for International Development, Cambridge, MA (United States); Loeb, S. [Clemson Univ., SC (United States); McKelvey, K. [US Forest Service, Arcata, CA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    Land managers need new tools, such as spatial models, to aid them in their decision-making processes because managing for biodiversity, water quality, or natural disturbance is challenging, and landscapes are complex and dynamic. Spatially explicit population models are helpful to managers because these models consider both species - habitat relationships and the arrangement of habitats in space and time. The visualizations that typically accompany spatially explicit models also permit managers to {open_quotes}see{close_quotes} the effects of alternative management strategies on populations of interest. However, the expense entailed in developing the data bases required for spatially explicit models may limit widespread implementation. In addition, many of the models are developed for one or a few species, and dealing with multiple species in a landscape remains a significant challenge. To be most useful to land managers, spatially explicit population models should be user friendly, easily portable, operate on spatial and temporal scales appropriate to management decisions, and use input and output variables that can be measured affordably. 20 refs.

  13. RESEARCH ARTICLE Modeling population connectivity by ocean currents,

    E-print Network

    Queensland, University of

    can be used to model the dispersal of coral larvae between reefs throughout the Tropical Pacific. We/downstream populations, and suggest areas that might be priori- tized for marine conservation efforts. Keywords Coral a species might cope with global climate change (Trakhtenbrot et al. 2005). As a result, differences

  14. Survival, extinction and ergodicity in a spatially continuous population model

    E-print Network

    Berestycki, Nathanaël

    Survival, extinction and ergodicity in a spatially continuous population model N. Berestycki, A of varying intensity allows for the possibility of large-scale extinction and recoloni- sation, ergodicity, survival, extinction, diffusion approximation 1 #12;of the number of offspring of each individual

  15. Key parameters for modeling information diffusion in populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kiran Lakkaraju; Ann Elizabeth Speed

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and simulation can be an important tool in helping develop techniques to better communicate safety-critical information for disaster preparation and recovery. However, these tools are only moderately useful if they do not capture both the social component (how information diffuses in a population through communication between individuals) and the cognitive component (how individuals integrate information and change behavior). The

  16. Software Sensor for a Harvested Fish Population Model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    El Houssine El Mazoudi; Mustapha Mrabti; Nouma Znaidi; Noureddine Elalami

    Summary This paper deals with the problem of software sensor (state estimation) to study the uncertain continuous age- structured model of a harvested fish population, in order to get an estimation of the biomass of fishes by age class. In our case the fishing effort is considered as a control term, the age classes as a states and the quantity

  17. Lie algebra method for solving biological population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Yilun

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, the Lie algebraic method is applied to solve biological population models described by time-inhomogeneous birth-death processes. Notwithstanding no obvious symmetry, the solution is expressed by matrix exponentials through suitably generated low-dimensional Lie algebras. This methodology may offer useful insights for other biological and ecological applications.

  18. 2nd Owl Symposium The Role and Management Implications of Modeling Owl Populations

    E-print Network

    , Habitat Suitability Index models, Meta-population models and Population Matrix models have played in owl the use of Geographi- cal Infor mation Systems (GIS) in conjunction with models, Habitat Suitability Index

  19. Late-summer zooplankton community structure, abundance, and distribution in the Hudson Bay system (Canada) and their relationships with environmental conditions, 2003-2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Rafael; Harvey, Michel; Gosselin, Michel; Starr, Michel; Galbraith, Peter S.; Straneo, Fiammetta

    2012-08-01

    Zooplankton communities were examined for the first time in three different hydrographic regions of the Hudson Bay system (HBS) in early August to early September from 2003 to 2006. Sampling was conducted at 50 stations distributed along different transects located in Hudson Bay (HB), Hudson Strait (HS), and Foxe Basin (FB). Variations in zooplankton biomass, abundance, taxonomic composition, and diversity in relation to environmental variables were studied using multivariate techniques. During all sampling years, the total zooplankton biomass was on average four times lower in HB than in HS and FB. Clustering samples by their relative species compositions revealed no interannual variation in zooplankton community but showed a marked interregional variability between the three regions. Water column stratification explained the greatest proportion (25%) of this spatial variability. According to redundancy analysis (RDA), the zooplankton taxa that contribute most to the separation of the three regions are Microcalanus spp., Oithona similis, Oncaea borealis, Aeginopsis laurentii, Sagitta elegans, Fritillaria sp., and larvae of cnidaria, chaetognatha, and pteropoda in HB; hyperiid amphipods in FB; and Pseudocalanus spp. CI-CV, Calanus glacialis CI-CVI, Calanus finmarchicus CI-CVI, Calanus hyperboreus CV-CVI, Acartia longiremis CI-CV, Metridia longa N3-N6 CI-CIII CVIf, Eukrohnia hamata, larvae of echinodermata, mollusca, cirripedia, appendicularia, and polychaeta in the northwestern and southeastern HS transects. For the HB transect, the RDA analyzed allowed us to distinguish three regions (HB west, central, and east) with different environmental gradients and zooplankton assemblages, in particular higher concentration of Pseudocalanus spp. nauplii and CI-CVI, as well as benthic macrozooplankton and meroplankton larvae in western HB. In HS, Calanoid species (mainly C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis) were mostly observed at the north shore stations associated with the weakly stratified Arctic-North Atlantic waters coming from southwestern Davis Strait (inflow). In general, the RDA models tested among the HBS regions were very consistent with its general surface circulation pattern for summer conditions in terms of environmental variables and distinct zooplankton assemblages. Overall, zooplankton biomass and diversity indices (H?, J?, and S) were lower in the most stratified environment (i.e., HB) than in the deeper (FB) and more dynamic (HS) regions. The results of this work clearly show that the spatial differentiation and structure of the zooplankton communities are strongly influenced by the hydrodynamic conditions in the HBS that, trough their actions on temperature, salinity, stratification, mixing conditions and depth strata, lead to the spatial differentiation of these communities.

  20. Food limitation, predation and allelopathy in a population of Daphnia carinata

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Carolyn W. Burns; Allison Dodds

    1999-01-01

    Major factors influencing the population dynamics of zooplankton are food availability and predation. Also, especially in shallow lakes, zooplankton may be affected by benthic macrophytes, some species of which produce allelopathic substances, and by suspended sediments which may constitute an additional food resource, or inhibit feeding. We estimated the influence of resource availability, predation by larval fish, and potential allelopathic

  1. Influence of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies on zooplankton distribution south of the western Aleutian Islands during summer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, R.; Yamaguchi, A.; Yasuda, I.; Ueno, H.; Ishiyama, H.; Imai, I.

    2013-12-01

    Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies have been observed south of the Aleutian Islands located between the Bering Sea and the subarctic Pacific. Eddies farther east, in the Gulf of Alaska, are known to transport coastal water and coastal zooplankton to offshore open ocean. The impacts of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies formed south of the western Aleutian Islands (Aleutian eddies) on the zooplankton community are not fully understood. In the present study, we describe zooplankton population structures within an Aleutian eddy and outside the eddy during July 2010. Our field study was conducted at seven stations along 51°15?N from 171°21?E to 174°38?E (western line) and at four stations along 50°40?N from 176°24?E to 178°44?E (eastern line) on 7-8 July 2010. At each station, environmental data (temperature, salinity and fluorescence were measured by CTD/XCTD. Zooplankton samples were collected by vertical tow of 150 m depth to the surface using 100 ?m mesh size plankton net. Based on the sea level anomaly (SLA), the western line crossed an anticyclonic eddy but the eastern line did not cross the eddy (Fig. 1). This Aleutian eddy was formed south of Attu Island (52°54?N, 172°54?E) in mid-February 2010, and it moved southeastward in the next five months. The SLA near the eddy center, representing the strength of the eddy, continuously increased, and the area oscillated at one to two month periods overlain on a general increase from ~7,000 to ~18,000 km2. Large oceanic copepods, Neocalanus cristatus, Eucalanus bungii and Metridia pacifica were more abundant inside the eddy than the outside. Inside the eddy, the life stage distribution of N. cristatus was advanced than that outside, and Neocalanus spp. had accumulated more lipids. These conditions probably reflect the greater primary production in the eddy, production enhanced by nutrients advected into the eddy. Since the Aleutian eddy was formed in offshore waters and/or eddy-eddy interaction occurred after its formation, it contained mostly oceanic copepods. The sufficient food condition in the eddy presumably induced higher growth and survival rates of these oceanic copepods, resulting in the greater abundance, advanced development stages and greater lipid accumulation. Fig. 1. Sea level anomaly along the sampling lines on 7 July 2010 south of the western Aleutian Islands.

  2. A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Exact Solution of Population Redistributions in a Migration Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xue-Wen; Zhang, Li-Jie; Yang, Guo-Hong; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2013-10-01

    We study a migration model, in which individuals migrate from one community to another. The choices of the source community i and the destination one j are proportional to some power of the population of i (k?i) and j (k?j), respectively. Both analytical calculation and numerical simulation show that the population distribution of communities in stationary states is determined by the parameters ? and ?. The distribution is widely homogeneous with a characteristic size if ? > ?. Whereas, for ? < ?, the distribution is highly heterogeneous with the emergence of condensing phenomenon. Between the two regimes, ? = ?, the distribution gradually shifts from the nonmonotonous (? < 0) to scale-free (? > 0).

  4. Estimating genetic parameters in natural populations using the "animal model".

    PubMed Central

    Kruuk, Loeske E B

    2004-01-01

    Estimating the genetic basis of quantitative traits can be tricky for wild populations in natural environments, as environmental variation frequently obscures the underlying evolutionary patterns. I review the recent application of restricted maximum-likelihood "animal models" to multigenerational data from natural populations, and show how the estimation of variance components and prediction of breeding values using these methods offer a powerful means of tackling the potentially confounding effects of environmental variation, as well as generating a wealth of new areas of investigation. PMID:15306404

  5. Inbreeding Estimation from Population Data: Models, Procedures and Implications

    PubMed Central

    Spielman, Richard S.; Neel, James V.; Li, Francis H. F.

    1977-01-01

    Four different estimation procedures for models of population structure are compared. The parameters of the models are shown to be equivalent and, in most cases, easily expressed in terms of the parameters Wright calls "F-statistics." We have estimated the parameters of each of these models with data on nine codominant allele pairs in 47 Yanomama villages, and we find that the different estimators for a given parameter all yield more or less equivalent results. F-statistics are often equated to inbreeding coefficients that are defined as the probability of identity by descent from alleles taken to be unique in some founding population. However, we are led to infer from computer simulation and general historical considerations that all estimates from genotype frequencies greatly underestimate the inbreeding coefficient for alleles in the founding population of American Indians in the western hemisphere. We surmise that in the highly subdivided tribal populations which prevailed until the recent advent of civilization, the probability of identity by descent for homologous alleles was roughly 0.5. We consider some consequences of working with the customary, much lower, estimates—0.005 to 0.01—if, on the time scale of human evolution, these represent only a very recent departure from the inbreeding intensity that prevailed before civilization. PMID:863234

  6. Mechanical reaction-diffusion model for bacterial population dynamics

    E-print Network

    Ngamsaad, Waipot

    2015-01-01

    The effect of mechanical interaction between cells on the spreading of bacterial population was investigated in one-dimensional space. A nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation has been formulated as a model for this dynamics. In this model, the bacterial cells are treated as the rod-like particles that interact, when contacting each other, through the hard-core repulsion. The repulsion introduces the exclusion process that causes the fast diffusion in bacterial population at high density. The propagation of the bacterial density as the traveling wave front in long time behavior has been analyzed. The analytical result reveals that the front speed is enhanced by the exclusion process---and its value depends on the packing fraction of cell. The numerical solutions of the model have been solved to confirm this prediction.

  7. Two-population dynamics in a growing network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanova, Kristinka; Iordanov, Ivan

    2012-02-01

    We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.

  8. A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koford, R.R.; Sauer, J.R.; Johnson, D.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Samuel, M.D.

    1992-01-01

    We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.

  9. ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

    2010-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  10. Induced pigmentation in zooplankton: a trade-off between threats from predation and ultraviolet radiation.

    PubMed

    Hansson, L A

    2000-11-22

    Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is harmful to all life, and the ongoing depletion of the ozone layer is likely to affect interactions among both terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Some organisms have evolved adaptations to reduce radiation damage, such as the various types of protective pigmentation of freshwater zooplankton. However, strong pigmentation also increases vulnerability to visually hunting predators. Hence, where both UV radiation and predation are intense, zooplankton may be sandwiched between conflicting selective pressures: to be pigmented and to be transparent at the same time. Here, I show that the level of pigmentation in copepods is up to ten times higher in lakes without predatory fishes than where fishes are present. Moreover, animals from the same population exposed to either UV light or predator scent showed a 10% difference in pigmentation after only four days, suggesting that pigmentation is an inducible trait. Hence, individual copepods are not passive victims of selective predation or radiation damage, but adjust the level of pigmentation according to the prevailing threat. The ability to adjust pigmentation level rapidly may be especially useful in situations where risk assessment is difficult due to strong seasonal and spatial variation in risk variables, such as in Arctic regions. With progressive thinning of the ozone layer, the ability of some but not other organisms to adjust protection against UV radiation may lead to counter-intuitive, large-scale alterations in freshwater food webs. PMID:11413651

  11. Development of zooplankton culture subsystem for a closed ecological recirculating aquaculture system (CERAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omori, Katsunori; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Takeuchi, Toshio

    2006-01-01

    Ten parthenogenetic females of Moina macrocopa were placed in small cells with different flow conditions. The cells were opened after three-days of cultivation, and the water fleas in each cell were counted. It appeared that M. macrocopa were cultured effectively in a relatively slow current, 10 cm/min., but the population growth was not significantly influenced by the difference in flow direction. Subsequent, filtration efficiencies of filters with various pore sizes were compared. Four available porous hollow-fiber membrane modules, ACP-1010, AHP-1010, PSP-103, and PMP-102 (Asahi-Kasei Corp.), were tested. The module with the larger pore size initially filtered a greater amount of water but clogged up sooner. ACP-1010, which has the smallest pores, was considered to be suitable to filter condensed algal water due to its durability and stable filtration. An improved zooplankton culture device (IZCD) was designed and constructed based on these examinations. IZCD is a 13.2L airtight device characterized by a short and thick rearing tank and alternate filtration with paired fine hollow-fiber membrane modules. It must be tested and revised to be used in research into the optimal conditions for a zooplankton culture in a closed environment.

  12. Induced pigmentation in zooplankton: a trade-off between threats from predation and ultraviolet radiation.

    PubMed Central

    Hansson, L A

    2000-01-01

    Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is harmful to all life, and the ongoing depletion of the ozone layer is likely to affect interactions among both terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Some organisms have evolved adaptations to reduce radiation damage, such as the various types of protective pigmentation of freshwater zooplankton. However, strong pigmentation also increases vulnerability to visually hunting predators. Hence, where both UV radiation and predation are intense, zooplankton may be sandwiched between conflicting selective pressures: to be pigmented and to be transparent at the same time. Here, I show that the level of pigmentation in copepods is up to ten times higher in lakes without predatory fishes than where fishes are present. Moreover, animals from the same population exposed to either UV light or predator scent showed a 10% difference in pigmentation after only four days, suggesting that pigmentation is an inducible trait. Hence, individual copepods are not passive victims of selective predation or radiation damage, but adjust the level of pigmentation according to the prevailing threat. The ability to adjust pigmentation level rapidly may be especially useful in situations where risk assessment is difficult due to strong seasonal and spatial variation in risk variables, such as in Arctic regions. With progressive thinning of the ozone layer, the ability of some but not other organisms to adjust protection against UV radiation may lead to counter-intuitive, large-scale alterations in freshwater food webs. PMID:11413651

  13. Ecological Modelling 170 (2003) 453469 Modeling the brown bear population in Slovenia

    E-print Network

    Dzeroski, Saso

    2003-01-01

    Ecological Modelling 170 (2003) 453­469 Modeling the brown bear population in Slovenia A tool as populations of other large predator species, such as wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx). The Slovenian it represents the source for natural re-colonization or reintroduction of the bear into Slovenia's neighboring

  14. FORAGE FISH AND ZOOPLANKTON COMMUNITY COMPOSITION IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    We assessed the abundance, size, and species composition of the fish and zooplankton communities of western Lake Superior during 1996 and 1997. Data were analyzed for 3 ecoregions (Duluth-Superior (1), Apostle Islands (2), Minnesota coast (3) differing in lake bathymetry, phsiodo...

  15. Reproductive strategies and energetic adaptations of polar zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    WILHELM HAGEN

    1999-01-01

    Key factors governing polar ocean ecosystems are low temperatures and a pronounced seasonal variability of ice cover, light regime and primary production. Depending on their ecological niche and trophic position, zooplankton species at high latitudes have developed a variety of reproductive strategies and energetic adaptations to cope with these extreme environmental conditions. Life-cycle strategies of the herbivorous copepods and euphausiids,

  16. Multidimensional zooplankton observations on the northern West Spitsbergen Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trudnowska, E.; Szczucka, J.; Hoppe, L.; Boehnke, R.; Hop, H.; Blachowiak-Samolyk, K.

    2012-09-01

    Climate change in the Arctic influences the ocean circulation and the hydrographic regime which leads to substantial reconstruction of the zooplankton community, notably a northward shift of dominant boreal species. These unstable Arctic environmental conditions are expected to affect the pelagic food web, which is highly dependent on the consumption of Calanus copepods. The present study is based on multidisciplinary zooplankton observations carried out with net sampling, a Laser Optical Plankton Counter and high frequency echosounding during two summer seasons on the West Spitsbergen Shelf. The extent of northward advection of surface Atlantic origin waters was greater in 2009 than in 2010. Our study determined the position of the surface frontal system and confirmed hydrographical separation of distinctive waters together with their associated fauna. Very abundant assemblages of C. finmarchicus dominated Atlantic origin waters in both years while a higher share of C. glacialis was observed in Arctic origin waters during colder 2010. The observed zooplankton assemblages ranged in size up to a few kilometres horizontally and > 40 m vertically. Combined implementation of conventional sampling, acoustic and optical methods provided a full spatial zooplankton distribution picture in an area of great importance as a potential feeding ground for planktivores.

  17. ORIGINAL PAPER Global patterns of epipelagic gelatinous zooplankton biomass

    E-print Network

    Hays, Graeme

    to a proliferation of jellyfish through a process known as fishing down the food web. However, there has been systems are dominated by invertebrates, such as jellyfish (Hay 2006; Daskalov et al. 2007). Whilst in greater jellyfish abundances (for a review, see Purcell et al. 2007). Concern of gelatinous zooplankton

  18. NUTRIENT REGENERATION BY ZOOPLANKTON IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rates of nutrient regeneration by zooplankton (micromolecule/mg dry wt/hr) in southern Lake Huron from April to August 1975 ranged from undetectable to 2.6 for total phosphorus (TP), undetected to 0.8 for total soluble phosphorus (TSP), undetectable to 0.12 for soluble reactive p...

  19. Zooplankton may not disperse readily in wind, rain, or waterfowl

    Microsoft Academic Search

    David G. Jenkins; Marilyn O. Underwood

    1998-01-01

    Zooplankton, and especially rotifers, have long been thought to be readily dispersed by wind, rain and animals (especially waterfowl). Given that premise, local processes (tolerance to abiotic conditions, biotic interactions) have been the main focus of ecological studies. We tested the premise of high dispersal rates by incubating particulates collected with windsocks and rain samplers at two sites over 1

  20. SECTION t.-GENERAL SURVEY OF THE ANIMAL PLANKTON (ZOOPLANKTON)

    E-print Network

    SECTION t.-GENERAL SURVEY OF THE ANIMAL PLANKTON (ZOOPLANKTON) Few living zoologists have been. Not but what an extensive list of pelagic crustaceans, ccelenter- ates, and other planktonic animals had been), a community that domi- nates the animal plankton from the Grand Banks on the north to Cape Cod (in winter even

  1. Natural diets of vertically migrating zooplankton in the Sargasso Sea

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. Schnetzer; D. K. Steinberg

    2002-01-01

    The feeding preferences of three common diel vertically migrating zooplankton were investigated from December 1999 to October 2000 at the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) station in the Sargasso Sea. Gut content analysis of the copepods Pleuromamma xiphias (Giesbrecht) and Euchirella messinensis (Claus) and of the euphausiid Thysanopoda aequalis (Hansen) indicated that all three species fed on a

  2. Correlates of Zooplankton Beta Diversity in Tropical Lake Systems

    PubMed Central

    Lopes, Paloma M.; Bini, Luis M.; Declerck, Steven A. J.; Farjalla, Vinicius F.; Vieira, Ludgero C. G.; Bonecker, Claudia C.; Lansac-Toha, Fabio A.; Esteves, Francisco A.; Bozelli, Reinaldo L.

    2014-01-01

    The changes in species composition between habitat patches (beta diversity) are likely related to a number of factors, including environmental heterogeneity, connectivity, disturbance and productivity. Here, we used data from aquatic environments in five Brazilian regions over two years and two seasons (rainy and dry seasons or high and low water level periods in floodplain lakes) in each year to test hypotheses underlying zooplankton beta diversity variation. The regions present different levels of hydrological connectivity, where three regions present lakes that are permanent and connected with the main river, while the water bodies of the other two regions consist of permanent lakes and temporary ponds, with no hydrological connections between them. We tested for relationships between zooplankton beta diversity and environmental heterogeneity, spatial extent, hydrological connectivity, seasonality, disturbance and productivity. Negative relationships were detected between zooplankton beta diversity and both hydrological connectivity and disturbance (periodic dry-outs). Hydrological connectivity is likely to affect beta diversity by facilitating dispersal between habitats. In addition, the harsh environmental filter imposed by disturbance selected for only a small portion of the species from the regional pool that were able to cope with periodic dry-outs (e.g., those with a high production of resting eggs). In summary, this study suggests that faunal exchange and disturbance play important roles in structuring local zooplankton communities. PMID:25330034

  3. Grazing by rotifers and crustacean zooplankton on nanoplanktonic protists

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Robert W. Sanders; Douglas A. Leeper; C. Harold King; Karen G. Porter

    1994-01-01

    Predation on nanoflagellates by metazoan zooplankton was investigated using a radioactively labeled flagellate, Poterioochromonas malhamensis, as a tracer cell in laboratory incubations of freshly collected plankton assemblages. Experiments conducted in the fall, winter and spring indicated that rotifers dominated the grazing on nanoflagellates by metazoans in the winter (68%) and spring (92%). Rotifer grazing was not determined in the autumn.

  4. Encounters of spherical galaxies. I - Galaxy models with one stellar population. II - Galaxy models with two stellar populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biermann, P.; Silk, J.

    1976-01-01

    Close encounters between two spherical galaxies of equal size and consisting of only one stellar population are calculated using models of elliptical galaxies constructed according to King's (1966) method. The mass loss and the change in internal energy are computed under the assumption that the stars do not change their velocity or density distributions during the encounters. The results for a specific case are compared with the calculations of Gallagher and Ostriker (1972), who employed the observed brightness distribution and the derived density distribution of the E1 galaxy NGC 3379. For models with one stellar population, the results suggest that the radius of a galactic halo would have to be at least 200 kpc for appreciable mass loss to occur over the history of a galaxy in a rich cluster. The calculations are then extended to include a halo population characterized by a high central velocity dispersion. In this case, it is found that the halo population of sufficiently large galaxies can be dispersed without appreciably affecting the main population. It is suggested that the missing mass of many clusters of galaxies may be located in an intergalactic sea of faint stars making up an envelope for the centrally located gE galaxies.

  5. Health promotion communications system: a model for a dispersed population.

    PubMed

    Foran, M; Campanelli, L C

    1995-11-01

    1. Corporations with geographically dispersed populations need to provide flexible health promotion programs tailored to meet specific employee interests and needs. 2. Bell Atlantic developed a dispersed model approach based on the transtheoretical model of behavior change. The key to this model is to identify at which stage the individual is operating and provide appropriate information and behavior change programs. 3. Components of the program include: health risk appraisal; exercise/activity tracking system; on line nurse health information service; network of fitness facilities; employee assistance programs; health library available by fax; health film library; network of health promotion volunteers; and targeted health and marketing messaged via corporate media. PMID:7575792

  6. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  7. A Model for Cell Population Size Control Using Asymmetric Division

    PubMed Central

    Hamidi, Mani; Emberly, Eldon

    2013-01-01

    In multicellular organisms one can find examples where a growing tissue divides up until some final fixed cell number. Asymmetric division plays a prevalent feature in tissue differentiation in these organisms, where the daughters of each asymmetric division inherit unequal amounts of a fate determining molecule and as a result follow different developmental fates. In some tissues the accumulation or decrease of cell cycle regulators acts as an intrinsic timing mechanism governing proliferation. Here we present a minimal model based on asymmetric division and dilution of a cell-cycle regulator that can generate any final population size that might be needed. We show that within the model there are a variety of growth mechanisms from linear to non-linear that can lead to the same final cell count. Interestingly, when we include noise at division we find that there are special final cell population sizes that can be generated with high confidence that are flanked by population sizes that are less robust to division noise. When we include further perturbations in the division process we find that these special populations can remain relatively stable and in some cases even improve in their fidelity. PMID:24040230

  8. Bayesian modeling of haplotype effects in multiparent populations.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhaojun; Wang, Wei; Valdar, William

    2014-09-01

    A general Bayesian model, Diploffect, is described for estimating the effects of founder haplotypes at quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected in multiparental genetic populations; such populations include the Collaborative Cross (CC), Heterogeneous Socks (HS), and many others for which local genetic variation is well described by an underlying, usually probabilistically inferred, haplotype mosaic. Our aim is to provide a framework for coherent estimation of haplotype and diplotype (haplotype pair) effects that takes into account the following: uncertainty in haplotype composition for each individual; uncertainty arising from small sample sizes and infrequently observed haplotype combinations; possible effects of dominance (for noninbred subjects); genetic background; and that provides a means to incorporate data that may be incomplete or has a hierarchical structure. Using the results of a probabilistic haplotype reconstruction as prior information, we obtain posterior distributions at the QTL for both haplotype effects and haplotype composition. Two alternative computational approaches are supplied: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and a procedure based on importance sampling of integrated nested Laplace approximations. Using simulations of QTL in the incipient CC (pre-CC) and Northport HS populations, we compare the accuracy of Diploffect, approximations to it, and more commonly used approaches based on Haley-Knott regression, describing trade-offs between these methods. We also estimate effects for three QTL previously identified in those populations, obtaining posterior intervals that describe how the phenotype might be affected by diplotype substitutions at the modeled locus. PMID:25236455

  9. Bayesian Modeling of Haplotype Effects in Multiparent Populations

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhaojun; Wang, Wei; Valdar, William

    2014-01-01

    A general Bayesian model, Diploffect, is described for estimating the effects of founder haplotypes at quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected in multiparental genetic populations; such populations include the Collaborative Cross (CC), Heterogeneous Socks (HS), and many others for which local genetic variation is well described by an underlying, usually probabilistically inferred, haplotype mosaic. Our aim is to provide a framework for coherent estimation of haplotype and diplotype (haplotype pair) effects that takes into account the following: uncertainty in haplotype composition for each individual; uncertainty arising from small sample sizes and infrequently observed haplotype combinations; possible effects of dominance (for noninbred subjects); genetic background; and that provides a means to incorporate data that may be incomplete or has a hierarchical structure. Using the results of a probabilistic haplotype reconstruction as prior information, we obtain posterior distributions at the QTL for both haplotype effects and haplotype composition. Two alternative computational approaches are supplied: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and a procedure based on importance sampling of integrated nested Laplace approximations. Using simulations of QTL in the incipient CC (pre-CC) and Northport HS populations, we compare the accuracy of Diploffect, approximations to it, and more commonly used approaches based on Haley–Knott regression, describing trade-offs between these methods. We also estimate effects for three QTL previously identified in those populations, obtaining posterior intervals that describe how the phenotype might be affected by diplotype substitutions at the modeled locus. PMID:25236455

  10. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  11. A test for deviation from island-model population structure.

    PubMed

    Porter, Adam H

    2003-04-01

    The neutral island model forms the basis for several estimation models that relate patterns of genetic structure to microevolutionary processes. Estimates of gene flow are often based on this model and may be biased when the model's assumptions are violated. An appropriate test for violations is to compare FST scores for individual loci to a null distribution based on the average FST taken over multiple loci. A parametric bootstrap method is described here based on Wright's beta-distribution to generate null distributions of FST for each locus. These null distributions account for error introduced by sampling populations, individuals and loci, and also biological sources of error, including variable alleles/locus and inbreeding. Confidence limits can be obtained directly from these distributions. Significant deviations from the island model may be the result of selection, deviations from the island model's migration pattern, nonequilibrium conditions, or other deviations from island-model assumptions. Only strong biases are likely to be detected because of the inherently large sampling variation of FST. Nevertheless, a coefficient, Nb, describing bias in the spread of the beta-distribution in units comparable to the gene flow parameter, Nm, can be obtained for each locus. In samples from populations of the butterfly Coenonympha tullia, the loci Idh-1, Mdh-1, Pgi and Pgm showed significantly lower FST than expected. PMID:12753211

  12. Trophic accumulation of PSP toxins in zooplankton during Alexandrium fundyense blooms in Casco Bay, Gulf of Maine, April June 1998. I. Toxin levels in A. fundyense and zooplankton size fractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doucette, Gregory J.; Turner, Jefferson T.; Powell, Christine L.; Keafer, Bruce A.; Anderson, Donald M.

    2005-09-01

    The transfer of marine algal toxins involving a range of phytoplanktivorous vectors is well documented as a means of exposing organisms at higher trophic levels (including humans) to these naturally occurring yet harmful compounds. While previous studies have examined the potential for, and dynamics of, algal toxin accumulation by individual zooplankton species, few have attempted to distinguish the contribution of various grazer size classes to toxin trophic transfer in natural communities and characterize some of the factors that can influence this process. The current investigation was aimed at describing the size-fractioned (64-100, 100-200, 200-500, >500 ?m) accumulation of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins by zooplankton in Casco Bay and the adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine during a series of cruises from April to June 1998. Several variables, including the abundance of PSP toxin-producing Alexandrium fundyense, in-water toxin concentrations associated with this dinoflagellate, and algal toxin cell quotas, were measured and their relationship to zooplankton toxin accumulation assessed. A principal finding of this work was the ability of any grazer size class examined (including grazers present in the 20-64 ?m A. fundyense-containing fraction) to serve as an initial vector for introducing PSP toxins into the Casco Bay food web at various times during the sampling period, thereby providing multiple potential routes of toxin trophic transfer. In addition, trends observed in the coincident mapping of A. fundyense cells and their associated toxin were generally in agreement, yet did not remain closely coupled at all times. Therefore, although A. fundyense abundance can be a reasonable indicator of PSP toxin presence in the phytoplankton, this relationship can vary considerably and lead to situations where elevated toxin levels occur at low cell concentrations and vice versa. The uncoupling of A. fundyense cell and in-water toxin concentrations in the 20-64 ?m, A. fundyense-containing size fraction implied fluctuations in the algal toxin cell quota, which ranged from ca. 10 to 2000 fmol STX equiv. cell -1. Some of this variability may reflect the changing presence in this size fraction of grazers (e.g., tintinnids) capable of toxin accumulation, causing an upward bias in A. fundyense toxin cell quota estimates. Overall, the extent of PSP toxin transfer into zooplankton will be determined by a complex interaction among several factors, including A. fundyense and grazer abundance, algal toxin cell quota, and zooplankton community composition. An ability to predict zooplankton toxin accumulation will require further investigation of the relationships between these and other factors, aimed specifically at modeling the process of toxin trophic transfer to grazers and ultimately to their predators.

  13. Factors associated with health care utilization among vulnerable populations: Using Gelberg's and Andersen's behavioral model for vulnerable populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    La Fleur Small

    2005-01-01

    In 2001 Andersen and Gelberg introduced the Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations which enables the identification of factors that might be particularly relevant to health care utilization among vulnerable populations. This dissertation uses this model along with the Health Services Research Data to conduct secondary data analysis to evaluate the factors that are most likely to influence health utilization outcomes

  14. Population effects of increased climate variation

    PubMed Central

    Drake, John M

    2005-01-01

    Global circulation models predict and numerous observations confirm that anthropogenic climate change has altered high-frequency climate variability. However, it is not yet well understood how changing patterns of environmental variation will affect wildlife population dynamics and other ecological processes. Theory predicts that a population's long-run growth rate is diminished and the chance of population extinction is increased as environmental variation increases. This results from the fact that population growth is a multiplicative process and that long-run population growth rate is the geometric mean of growth rates over time, which is always less than the arithmetic mean. However, when population growth rates for unstructured populations are related nonlinearly to environmental drivers, increasing environmental variation can increase a population's long-run growth rate. This suggests that patterns of environmental variation associated with different aspects of climate change may affect population dynamics in different ways. Specifically, increasing variation in rainfall might result in diminished long-run growth rates for many animal species while increasing variation in temperature might result in increased long-run growth rates. While the effect of rainfall is theoretically well understood and supported by data, the hypothesized effect of temperature is not. Here, I analyse two datasets to study the effect of fluctuating temperatures on growth rates of zooplankton. Results are consistent with the prediction that fluctuating temperatures should increase long-run growth rates and the frequency of extreme demographic events. PMID:16096095

  15. Synergistic Interaction between Selective Drugs in Cell Populations Models

    PubMed Central

    Doldán-Martelli, Victoria; Míguez, David G.

    2015-01-01

    The design of selective drugs and combinatorial drug treatments are two of the main focuses in modern pharmacology. In this study we use a mathematical model of chimeric ligand-receptor interaction to show that the combination of selective drugs is synergistic in nature, providing a way to gain optimal selective potential at reduced doses compared to the same drugs when applied individually. We use a cell population model of proliferating cells expressing two different amounts of a target protein to show that both selectivity and synergism are robust against variability and heritability in the cell population. The reduction in the total drug administered due to the synergistic performance of the selective drugs can potentially result in reduced toxicity and off-target interactions, providing a mechanism to improve the treatment of cell-based diseases caused by aberrant gene overexpression, such as cancer and diabetes. PMID:25671700

  16. Modeling of LEO orbital debris populations for ORDEM2008

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Y.-L. Xu; M. Horstman; P. H. Krisko; J.-C. Liou; M. Matney; E. G. Stansbery; C. L. Stokely; D. Whitlock

    2009-01-01

    The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM2000, is in the process of being updated to a new version: ORDEM2008. The data-driven ORDEM covers a spectrum of object size from 10?m to greater than 1m, and ranging from LEO (low Earth orbit) to GEO (geosynchronous orbit) altitude regimes. ORDEM2008 centimeter-sized populations are statistically derived from Haystack and HAX (the Haystack Auxiliary)

  17. Matching Stellar Population Models to Bulge Globular Clusters.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruzual, G.; Barbuy, B.; Ortolani, S.; Bica, E.; Cuisinier, F.; Lejeune, T.; Schiavon, R. P.

    1997-10-01

    We compare observed color-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of the three metal-rich bulge globular clusters NGC 6553, NGC 6528 and Terzan 5, and integrated spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of NGC 6528 and 47 Tuc, to theoretical isochrones and model SEDs computed with the code of Bruzual & Charlot (1997, hereafter BC97). The BC97 models provide the evolution in time of the spectrophotometric properties of simple stellar populations (SSPs) for a wide range of stellar metallicity. These models allow us to compare predictions based on different sets of evolutionary tracks and various choices of the stellar spectral libraries with observational data. We conclude that: (a) At least for solar metallicity models, the semi-empirical flux corrections applied by Lejeune et al. (1997a,b) to available grids of synthetic stellar spectra improve the agreement between population model predictions and observations. (b) The adopted reddening and distance moduli for the three clusters seem well determined, since the theoretical isochrones fit quite well the observed CMDs. (c) The overall metallicity of these clusters is close to solar. (d) Based on our CMD and SED models we estimate that the ages of NGC 6553 and NGC 6528 must be ~ 12 +/- 2 Gyr. These are the only two clusters in our sample with main sequence photometry. From the UV-optical SED of 47-Tuc we estimate an age of ~ 14 +/- 2 Gyr.

  18. ORIGINAL PAPER Predation by zooplankton on Batrachochytrium

    E-print Network

    Blaustein, Andrew R.

    , causes the disease chytridiomycosis which is responsible for unprecedented population declines). Emerging infectious diseases such as chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, are playing a prominent role in these declines (Mendelson et al. 2006). The impact of chytridiomycosis

  19. Velocity dispersion of M87 using a population model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Angione, R. J.; Junkkarinen, V.; Talbert, F. D.; Brandt, J. C.

    1980-01-01

    The velocity dispersion of M 87 (NGC 4486) is determined using (1) a single star of class K0 III and (2) two different population models to represent the spectral region of the G-band. Although the models fit the overall spectrum better than the single-star, there is only a small difference in the derived velocity dispersion. This work revises the earlier velocity dispersion result of Brandt and Roosen (1969) down to 350 km/sec, in agreement with Faber and Jackson (1976) and Sargent et al. (1978).

  20. Ecological Modelling 126 (2000) 7377 Leslie model for predatory gall-midge population

    E-print Network

    Krivan, Vlastimil

    2000-01-01

    Ecological Modelling 126 (2000) 73­77 Leslie model for predatory gall-midge population Vlastimil´ Budejo6ice, Czech Republic Accepted 16 August 1999 Abstract A Leslie matrix model for predatory gall-midge is constructed. From the model we estimate the stable age distribution which is important when the gall-midge

  1. Restricted occupancy models for neutralization of HIV virions and populations.

    PubMed

    Magnus, Carsten; Regoes, Roland R

    2011-08-21

    HIV virions infect cells by attaching to target cell receptors, fusing membranes with the cell and by finally releasing their genetic material into the target cells. Antibodies can hinder the infection by attaching to the HIV envelope glycoprotein trimers before or during attachment. The exact mechanisms and the quantitative requirements of antibody neutralization are still debated. Recently, the number of antibodies rendering one trimer non-functional, called stoichiometry of (trimer) neutralization, was studied with mathematical models. Here we extend this theoretical framework to calculate the stoichiometries of neutralizing a single virion and a whole virion population. We derive mathematical equations for antibody neutralization based on restricted occupancy theory. Additionally we simulate these processes when a direct calculation is not possible. We find that the number of trimers needed for cell entry and the number of antibodies neutralizing one trimer strongly influence the mean number of antibodies needed for virion and population neutralization. Further we show that the mean number of antibodies needed to neutralize a virion population exceeds the product of the number of virions in the population and the mean number of antibodies needed to neutralize one virion. PMID:21683711

  2. Stem cell modeling: From gene networks to cell populations

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Jincheng; Rostami, Mahboubeh Rahmati; Tzanakakis, Emmanuel S.

    2013-01-01

    Despite rapid advances in the field of stem/progenitor cells through experimental studies, relevant modeling approaches have not progressed with a similar pace. Various models have focused on particular aspects of stem cell physiology including gene regulatory networks, gene expression noise and signaling cascades activated by exogenous factors. However, the self-renewal and differentiation of stem cells is driven by the coordinated regulation of events at the subcellular, intercellular and milieu levels. Such events also span multiple time domains from the fast molecular reactions governing gene expression to the slower cell cycle and division. Thus, the development of multiscale computational frameworks for stem cell populations is highly desirable. Multiscale models are expected to aid the design of efficient differentiation strategies and bioprocesses for the generation of therapeutically useful stem cell progeny. Yet, challenges in making these models tractable and pairing those to sufficient experimental data prevent their wide adoption by the stem cell community. Here, we review modeling approaches reported for stem cell populations and associated hurdles. PMID:23914346

  3. A population model of chaparral vegetation response to frequent wildfires.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Timothy A; Johns, Garrett; Jiang, Wancen; Yang, Lucie

    2013-12-01

    The recent increase in wildfire frequency in the Santa Monica Mountains (SMM) may substantially impact plant community structure. Species of Chaparral shrubs represent the dominant vegetation type in the SMM. These species can be divided into three life history types according to their response to wildfires. Nonsprouting species are completely killed by fire and reproduce by seeds that germinate in response to a fire cue, obligate sprouting species survive by resprouting from dormant buds in a root crown because their seeds are destroyed by fire, and facultative sprouting species recover after fire both by seeds and resprouts. Based on these assumptions, we developed a set of nonlinear difference equations to model each life history type. These models can be used to predict species survivorship under varying fire return intervals. For example, frequent fires can lead to localized extinction of nonsprouting species such as Ceanothus megacarpus while several facultative sprouting species such as Ceanothus spinosus and Malosma (Rhus) laurina will persist as documented by a longitudinal study in a biological preserve in the SMM. We estimated appropriate parameter values for several chaparral species using 25 years of data and explored parameter relationships that lead to equilibrium populations. We conclude by looking at the survival strategies of these three species of chaparral shrubs under varying fire return intervals and predict changes in plant community structure under fire intervals of short return. In particular, our model predicts that an average fire return interval of greater than 12 years is required for 50 % of the initial Ceanothus megacarpus population and 25 % of the initial Ceanothus spinosus population to survive. In contrast, we predict that the Malosma laurina population will have 90 % survivorship for an average fire return interval of at least 6 years. PMID:24091781

  4. The Impact of Fish Predation and Cyanobacteria on Zooplankton Size Structure in 96 Subtropical Lakes

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jing; Xie, Ping; Tao, Min; Guo, Longgen; Chen, Jun; Li, Li; XueZhen Zhang; Zhang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Zooplankton are relatively small in size in the subtropical regions. This characteristic has been attributed to intense predation pressure, high nutrient loading and cyanobacterial biomass. To provide further information on the effect of predation and cyanobacteria on zooplankton size structure, we analyzed data from 96 shallow aquaculture lakes along the Yangtze River. Contrary to former studies, both principal components analysis and multiple regression analysis showed that the mean zooplankton size was positively related to fish yield. The studied lakes were grouped into three types, namely, natural fishing lakes with low nutrient loading (Type1), planktivorous fish-dominated lakes (Type 2), and eutrophic lakes with high cyanobacterial biomass (Type 3). A marked difference in zooplankton size structure was found among these groups. The greatest mean zooplankton size was observed in Type 2 lakes, but zooplankton density was the lowest. Zooplankton abundance was highest in Type 3 lakes and increased with increasing cyanobacterial biomass. Zooplankton mean size was negatively correlated with cyanobacterial biomass. No obvious trends were found in Type 1 lakes. These results were reflected by the normalized biomass size spectrum, which showed a unimodal shape with a peak at medium sizes in Type 2 lakes and a peak at small sizes in Type 3 lakes. These results indicated a relative increase in medium-sized and small-sized species in Types 2 and 3 lakes, respectively. Our results suggested that fish predation might have a negative effect on zooplankton abundance but a positive effect on zooplankton size structure. High cyanobacterial biomass most likely caused a decline in the zooplankton size and encouraged the proliferation of small zooplankton. We suggest that both planktivorous fish and cyanobacteria have substantial effects on the shaping of zooplankton community, particularly in the lakes in the eastern plain along the Yangtze River where aquaculture is widespread and nutrient loading is high. PMID:24124552

  5. Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia.

    PubMed

    Trevorrow, Mark V; Mackas, David L; Benfield, Mark C

    2005-06-01

    An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation. PMID:16018461

  6. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-07-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.

  7. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  8. Logistic Growth The logistic equation is a model of limited population growth. The exponential growth model

    E-print Network

    Ikenaga, Bruce

    9­28­1998 Logistic Growth The logistic equation is a model of limited population growth of organisms runs out of food, encounters predators, or fouls its own environment with waste. The logistic the carrying capacity. Example. A population of roaches grows logistically in Calvin Butterball's kitchen

  9. State-space models for the dynamics of wild animal populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    S. T. Buckland; K. B. Newmanb; L. Thomas; N. B. Koesters

    2004-01-01

    We develop a unified framework for jointly defining population dynamics models and measurements taken on a population. The framework is a state-space model where the population processes are modelled by the state process and measurements are modelled by the observation process. In many cases, the expected value for the state process can be represented as a generalisation of the standard

  10. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department Model in Genetics WCNA 2008 2 / 38 #12;The Discrete Model Consider a single haploid panmictic population in Genetics WCNA 2008 3 / 38 #12;The Discrete Model Let the fraction of the population with allele Ai at locus

  11. An integro-PDE model from population genetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lou, Yuan; Nagylaki, Thomas; Su, Linlin

    We investigate an integro-partial differential equation that models the evolution of the frequencies for two alleles at a single locus under the joint action of migration, selection, and partial panmixia (i.e., global random mating). We extend previous analyses [T. Nagylaki, Clines with partial panmixia, Theor. Popul. Biol. 81 (2012) 45-68] on the maintenance of both alleles from conservative to arbitrary migration and prove the uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the nontrivial equilibrium. For conservative migration, we show that increasing the rate of panmixia makes it harder to maintain the allele with the smaller average fitness in the population. In terms of the selection function, we estimate the dependence on the panmictic rate of the minimal value of the selection intensity for the persistence of the allele with the smaller average fitness. We also show that, at least in an average sense, increasing panmixia flattens the cline.

  12. A model for amphipod ( Talitrus saltator) population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anastácio, P. M.; Gonçalves, S. C.; Pardal, M. A.; Marques, J. C.

    2003-10-01

    This study provides a population dynamics model for one of the most common species ( Talitrus saltator) in sandy beaches. Sensitivity analysis showed that in the model the abundance of T. saltator is deeply affected by variations in the minimum recruitment day length, the minimum temperature at recruitment, and the period between recruitments. The mortality rate, as expected, also had a profound effect on model performance. The abundance (IST, ind m -1) of T. saltator was most sensitive to the initial number of individuals in age class 5 (ca. 4 months old) and least sensitive to the initial number in age class 9 (ca. 8 months old). Data used for the calibration of the model were obtained in the Lavos beach in central Portugal. The model is based on differential equations and it was constructed using Stella simulation software. Five different model versions were tested corresponding to different modes of recruitment that could fit the data. It was found that the best model was obtained when considering reproduction dependent on temperature and photoperiod and occurring on a semi-lunar basis. Two out of the five different model versions tested gave a good statistical performance. Only one of these two model versions makes an effective use of causality mechanisms. This was also the model with the best intercept and slope of the simulated vs. observed regression equation. The other statistically satisfactory model used continuous reproduction between two dates. These dates do not match a photoperiod threshold. The final model version (e) may serve as a useful tool, when used alone or when coupled with other models. One of its uses could be in assessing the effects of human actions upon a sandy beach ecosystem.

  13. Attachment of Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 to zooplankton and phytoplankton of Bangladesh waters.

    PubMed Central

    Tamplin, M L; Gauzens, A L; Huq, A; Sack, D A; Colwell, R R

    1990-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, the causative agent of cholera, is capable of surviving in aquatic environments for extended periods and is considered an autochthonous species in estuarine and brackish waters. These environments contain numerous elements that may affect its ecology. The studies reported here examined physical interactions between V. cholerae O1 and natural plankton populations of a geographical region in Bangladesh where cholera is an endemic disease. Results showed that four of five clinical V. cholerae O1 strains and endogenous bacterial flora were attached preferentially to zooplankton molts (exuviae) rather than to whole specimens. One strain attached in approximately equal numbers to both exuviae and whole specimens. V. cholerae O1 also attached to several phytoplankton species. The results show that V. cholerae O1 can bind to diverse plankton species collected from an area where cholera is an endemic disease, with potentially significant effects on its ecology. Images PMID:2383016

  14. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system.

    PubMed

    Huang, Pu; Feldman, Maximilian; Schroder, Stephan; Bahri, Bochra A; Diao, Xianmin; Zhi, Hui; Estep, Matt; Baxter, Ivan; Devos, Katrien M; Kellogg, Elizabeth A

    2014-10-01

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new model system for C4 grasses and bioenergy crops, due to its rapid life cycle, large amount of seed production and small diploid genome, among other characters. However, remarkably little is known about the genetic diversity in natural populations of this species. In this study, we survey the genetic diversity of a worldwide sample of more than 200 S. viridis accessions, using the genotyping-by-sequencing technique. Two distinct genetic groups in S. viridis and a third group resembling S. italica were identified, with considerable admixture among the three groups. We find the genetic variation of North American S. viridis correlates with both geography and climate and is representative of the total genetic diversity in this species. This pattern may reflect several introduction/dispersal events of S. viridis into North America. We also modelled demographic history and show signal of recent population decline in one subgroup. Finally, we show linkage disequilibrium decay is rapid (<45 kb) in our total sample and slow in genetic subgroups. These results together provide an in-depth understanding of the pattern of genetic diversity of this new model species on a broad geographic scale. They also provide key guidelines for on-going and future work including germplasm preservation, local adaptation, crossing designs and genomewide association studies. PMID:25185718

  15. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations. PMID:19100585

  16. Diel vertical migration: Ecological controls and impacts on the biological pump in a one-dimensional ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchi, Daniele; Stock, Charles; Galbraith, Eric D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2013-04-01

    vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton and micronekton is widespread in the ocean and forms a fundamental component of the biological pump, but is generally overlooked in global models of the Earth system. We develop a parameterization of DVM in the ocean and integrate it with a size-structured NPZD model. We assess the model's ability to recreate ecosystem and DVM patterns at three well-observed Pacific sites, ALOHA, K2, and EQPAC, and use it to estimate the impact of DVM on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical dynamics. Our model includes the following: (1) a representation of migration dynamics in response to food availability and light intensity; (2) a representation of the digestive and metabolic processes that decouple zooplankton feeding from excretion, egestion, and respiration; and (3) a light-dependent parameterization of visual predation on zooplankton. The model captures the first-order patterns in plankton biomass and productivity across the biomes, including the biomass of migrating organisms. We estimate that realistic migratory populations sustain active fluxes to the mesopelagic zone equivalent to between 15% and 40% of the particle export and contribute up to half of the total respiration within the layers affected by migration. The localized active transport has important consequences for the cycling of oxygen, nutrients, and carbon. We highlight the importance of decoupling zooplankton feeding and respiration and excretion with depth for capturing the impact of migration on the redistribution of carbon and nutrients in the upper ocean.

  17. Spatial and temporal variation in mercury bioaccumulation by zooplankton in Lake Champlain (North America)

    PubMed Central

    Kamman, Neil; Williams, Jason; Bugge, Deenie; Taylor, Vivien; Jackson, Brian; Miller, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Trophic transfer of Hg across lakes within a region has been related to multiple environmental factors, but the nature of these relationships across distinct basins within individual large lakes is unknown. We investigated Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton in basins of differing trophic status in Lake Champlain (Vermont, USA) to determine the strongest predictors of Hg bioaccumulation. Zooplankton were sampled in Malletts Bay (oligotrophic) and Missisquoi Bay (eutrophic) in 2005–2008. Zooplankton in the eutrophic basin had lower concentrations of total Hg and MeHg than those in the oligotrophic basin in all years but 2007, when no bloom occurred in Missisquoi. In addition, Hg concentrations in seston and small zooplankton, sampled during 2009 at 12 sites spanning the lake, decreased with increasing phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Thus, Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton across basins in Lake Champlain is related to trophic status, as observed previously in multiple lake studies. PMID:21995871

  18. Spatial and temporal variation in mercury bioaccumulation by zooplankton in Lake Champlain (North America).

    PubMed

    Chen, Celia; Kamman, Neil; Williams, Jason; Bugge, Deenie; Taylor, Vivien; Jackson, Brian; Miller, Eric

    2012-02-01

    Trophic transfer of Hg across lakes within a region has been related to multiple environmental factors, but the nature of these relationships across distinct basins within individual large lakes is unknown. We investigated Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton in basins of differing trophic status in Lake Champlain (Vermont, USA) to determine the strongest predictors of Hg bioaccumulation. Zooplankton were sampled in Malletts Bay (oligotrophic) and Missisquoi Bay (eutrophic) in 2005-2008. Zooplankton in the eutrophic basin had lower concentrations of total Hg and MeHg than those in the oligotrophic basin in all years but 2007, when no bloom occurred in Missisquoi. In addition, Hg concentrations in seston and small zooplankton, sampled during 2009 at 12 sites spanning the lake, decreased with increasing phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Thus, Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton across basins in Lake Champlain is related to trophic status, as observed previously in multiple lake studies. PMID:21995871

  19. Increased zooplankton PAH concentrations across hydrographic fronts in the East China Sea.

    PubMed

    Hung, Chin-Chang; Ko, Fung-Chi; Gong, Gwo-Ching; Chen, Kuo-Shu; Wu, Jian-Ming; Chiang, Hsin-Lun; Peng, Sen-Chueh; Santschi, Peter H

    2014-06-15

    The Changjiang has transported large quantities of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to the East China Sea (ECS), but information of these pollutants in zooplankton is limited. To understand PAHs pollution in zooplankton in the ECS, total concentrations of PAHs in zooplankton from surface waters were measured. Values of PAHs ranged from 2 to 3500 ng m(-3) in the ECS, with highest PAHs levels located at the salinity front between the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) and the mid-shelf waters. In contrast, concentrations of zooplankton PAHs in the mid-shelf and outer-shelf waters were significantly lower (2-23 ng m(-3)) than those in the CDW. These results demonstrate that PAHs are conspicuously accumulated in zooplankton at the salinity front between the CDW and the mid-shelf waters. These higher levels of PAHs in zooplankton at the salinity front may be further biomagnified in marine organisms of higher trophic levels through their feeding activities. PMID:24775063

  20. A General Population-Genetic Model for the Production by Population Structure of Spurious Genotype-Phenotype Associations in Discrete, Admixed or Spatially Distributed Populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Noah A. Rosenberg; Magnus Nordborg

    2006-01-01

    In linkage disequilibrium mapping of genetic variants causally associated with phenotypes, spurious associations can potentially be generated by any of a variety of types of population structure. However, mathematical theory of the production of spurious associations has largely been restricted to population structure models that involve the sampling of individuals from a collection of discrete subpopulations. Here, we introduce a

  1. Biomass of zooplankton estimated by acoustical sensors in the Arabian sea. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Holliday, D.V.

    1996-11-22

    The long term goal of our overall research program is the development of data-based models to predict ecological relationships of zooplankton, phytoplankton and the physical environment in the sea. The overall objective of the work carried out within the scope of this particular contract was to acoustically measure the dynamics of zooplankton and micronekton in the northern Arabian Sea during several seasons. The scientific focus was to examine the impact, if any, of the two annual monsoons that are thought to drive the ecosystem response in the area. This particular project involved the design and construction of two sensors which were then deployed in the Arabian Sea by several of our co-PIVs in the ONR ARI on Forced Upper Ocean Dynamics during the time period in which the JGOFS program also focused their efforts on the northern Arabian Sea. This contract involved only the development, calibration and maintenance of the instrumentation. The data processing, other than that which has been necessary for the purposes of quality assurance, was not induded in our original proposal.

  2. Origin and development of river zooplankton: example of the Marne

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Roger Pourriot; Claude Rougier; Anne Miquelis

    1997-01-01

    Zooplankton composition and growth in the river Marne (France)were studied on a space scale of 300 km in July 1991. There werethree distinct areas along the river: the immediate reservoir outlet(pK 652), the natural river called middle Marne (from pK 652to pK 799 downstream) and the channeled river (from pK 799 topK 975 downstream). A typical lake community, characterized both

  3. Zooplankton fecal pellets link fossil fuel and phosphate deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.G.; Robbins, E.I.

    1981-01-01

    Fossil zooplankton fecal pellets found in thinly bedded marine and lacustrine black shales associated with phosphate, oil, and coal deposits, link the deposition of organic matter and biologically associated minerals with planktonic ecosystems. The black shales were probably formed in the anoxic basins of coastal marine waters, inland seas, and rift valley lakes where high productivity was supported by runoff, upwelling, and outwelling. Copyright ?? 1981 AAAS.

  4. Predation and the evolution of vertical migration in zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Maciej Z. Gliwicz

    1986-01-01

    Diel vertical migrations of zooplankton within water bodies have been related to efficient utilization of resources1-4 or to avoidance of mortality due to predation5,6. Although the possibility that vertical migrations evolved as an antipredator strategy has attracted much attention, no evidence has yet been presented of predation selecting for traits of migratory behaviour in planktonic animals. Therefore, I have examined

  5. Flow disturbances generated by feeding and swimming zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Jiang, Houshuo; Gonçalves, Rodrigo Javier; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Wadhwa, Navish

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between planktonic organisms, such as detection of prey, predators, and mates, are often mediated by fluid signals. Consequently, many plankton predators perceive their prey from the fluid disturbances that it generates when it feeds and swims. Zooplankton should therefore seek to minimize the fluid disturbance that they produce. By means of particle image velocimetry, we describe the fluid disturbances produced by feeding and swimming in zooplankton with diverse propulsion mechanisms and ranging from 10-µm flagellates to greater than millimeter-sized copepods. We show that zooplankton, in which feeding and swimming are separate processes, produce flow disturbances during swimming with a much faster spatial attenuation (velocity u varies with distance r as u ? r?3 to r?4) than that produced by zooplankton for which feeding and propulsion are the same process (u ? r?1 to r?2). As a result, the spatial extension of the fluid disturbance produced by swimmers is an order of magnitude smaller than that produced by feeders at similar Reynolds numbers. The “quiet” propulsion of swimmers is achieved either through swimming erratically by short-lasting power strokes, generating viscous vortex rings, or by “breast-stroke swimming.” Both produce rapidly attenuating flows. The more “noisy” swimming of those that are constrained by a need to simultaneously feed is due to constantly beating flagella or appendages that are positioned either anteriorly or posteriorly on the (cell) body. These patterns transcend differences in size and taxonomy and have thus evolved multiple times, suggesting a strong selective pressure to minimize predation risk. PMID:25071196

  6. Phytoplankton, not allochthonous carbon, sustains herbivorous zooplankton production

    PubMed Central

    Brett, Michael T.; Kainz, Martin J.; Taipale, Sami J.; Seshan, Hari

    2009-01-01

    Terrestrial organic matter inputs have long been thought to play an important role in aquatic food web dynamics. Results from recent whole lake 13C addition experiments suggest terrestrial particulate organic carbon (t-POC) inputs account for a disproportionate portion of zooplankton production. For example, several studies concluded that although t-POC only represented ?20% of the flux of particulate carbon available to herbivorous zooplankton, this food source accounted for ?50% of the C incorporated by zooplankton. We tested the direct dietary impact of t-POC (from the leaves of riparian vegetation) and various phytoplankton on Daphnia magna somatic growth, reproduction, growth efficiency, and lipid composition. By itself, t-POC was a very poor quality resource compared to cryptophytes, diatoms, and chlorophytes, but t-POC had similar food quality compared to cyanobacteria. Small additions of high quality Cryptomonas ozolinii to t-POC-dominated diets greatly increased Daphnia growth and reproduction. When offered alone, t-POC resulted in a Daphnia growth efficiency of 5 ± 1%, whereas 100% Cryptomonas and Scenedesmus obliquus diets resulted in growth efficiencies of 46 ± 8% (± SD) and 36 ± 3%, respectively. When offered in a 50:50 mixed diet with Cryptomonas or Scenedesmus, the t-POC fraction resulted in a partial growth efficiency of 22 ± 9% and 15 ± 6%, respectively. Daphnia that obtained 80% of their available food from t-POC assimilated 84% of their fatty acids from the phytoplankton component of their diet. Overall, our results suggest Daphnia selectively allocate phytoplankton-derived POC and lipids to enhance somatic growth and reproduction, while t-POC makes a minor contribution to zooplankton production. PMID:19934044

  7. Zooplankton grazing on Phaeocystis : a quantitative review and future challenges

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jens C. Nejstgaard; Kam W. Tang; Michael Steinke; Jörg Dutz; Marja Koski; Elvire Antajan; Jeremy D. Long

    2007-01-01

    The worldwide colony-forming haptophyte phytoplankton Phaeocystis spp. are key organisms in trophic and biogeochemical processes in the ocean. Many organisms from protists to fish ingest\\u000a cells and\\/or colonies of Phaeocystis. Reports on specific mortality of Phaeocystis in natural plankton or mixed prey due to grazing by zooplankton, especially protozooplankton, are still limited. Reported\\u000a feeding rates vary widely for both crustaceans

  8. USING MODELS TO EXTRAPOLATE POPULATION-LEVEL EFFECTS FROM LABORATORY TOXICITY TESTS IN SUPPORT OF POPULATION RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Using models to extrapolate population-level effects from laboratory toxicity tests in support of population risk assessments. Munns, W.R., Jr.*, Anne Kuhn, Matt G. Mitro, and Timothy R. Gleason, U.S. EPA ORD NHEERL, Narragansett, RI, USA. Driven in large part by management goa...

  9. Late stages of stellar evolution in population models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraston, Claudia

    2015-04-01

    My contribution to Roger's celebration symposium focuses on the treatment of late stellar evolutionary phases in stellar population models, reviewing the state of art and discussing some very recent developments, ranging from local stellar clusters up to distant galaxies at high redshift. I shall focus in particular on the Thermally Pulsating Asymptotic Giant Branch, about which a vivid discussion has been ongoing since a few years. I shall present renewed evidence in favour of a sizable contribution from this phase for matching the observed spectral energy distribution of distant massive galaxies. I shall also discuss the possible reasons why such a conclusion has been controversial in the recent literature. Stellar population models are the magic tool to shape the physics of galaxies out of their observed light, and enter virtually all papers presented at this symposium. In a collective effort to properly treat all relevant aspects of the modelling, we split the discussion into six contributions given by experts in the field, as our present to Roger and his outstanding career.

  10. Mathematical modeling of glassy-winged sharpshooter population.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Jeong-Mi; Hrynkiv, Volodymyr; Morano, Lisa; Nguyen, Anh Tuan; Wilder, Sara; Mitchell, Forrest

    2014-06-01

    Pierce's disease (PD) is a fatal disease of grapevines which results from an infection by the plant pathogen Xyllela fastidiosa. This bacterium grows in the xylem (water-conducting) vessels of the plant blocking movement of water. PD can kill vines in one year and poses a serious threat to both the California and the expanding Texas wine industries. Bacteria are vectored from one vine to the next by a number of xylem feeding insect species. Of these, the Glassy-winged Sharpshooter (GWSS) is considered to be the primary xylem feeding insect in Texas vineyards. An extensive database of the xylem-feeding population frequencies was collected by USDA-APHIS for Texas vineyards over multiple years. This project focused on a subset of data, GWSS frequencies within 25 vineyards in Edwards Plateau located in central Texas. The proposed model investigates the natural population dynamics and the decline in GWSS, likely the result of pest management campaigns on the insects within the region. The model is a delay Gompertz differential equation with harvesting and immigration terms, and we use the data to estimate the model parameters. PMID:24506556

  11. Analytical approximations for a population growth model with fractional order

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Hang

    2009-05-01

    In this paper, we apply the homotopy analysis method (HAM) to solve the fractional Volterra's model for population growth of a species in a closed system. This technique is extended to give solutions for nonlinear fractional integro-differential equations. The whole HAM solution procedure for nonlinear fractional differential equations is established. Further, the accurate analytical approximations are obtained for the first time, which are valid and convergent for all time t. This indicates the validity and great potential of the homotopy analysis method for solving nonlinear fractional integro-differential equations.

  12. Modelling population changes in small English urban areas.

    PubMed

    Congdon, P; Shepherd, J

    1986-10-01

    The authors examine processes underlying the growth of small urban areas in England. "There is evidence of 'people-led' growth in environmentally attractive locations (for example, through retirement migration). However, growth of small- and medium-sized towns also reflects employment decentralisation and deconcentration to freestanding or satellite towns, and the extension of commuter hinterlands.... Government policies encouraging growth are also demonstrated to be significant." The processes resulting in population decline in some small towns are identified. "The impact on modelling growth in urban areas of a diversity of causal processes and locational contexts for growth is considered." PMID:12340785

  13. Mercury biomagnification in marine zooplankton food webs in Hudson Bay.

    PubMed

    Foster, Karen L; Stern, Gary A; Pazerniuk, Monica A; Hickie, Brendan; Walkusz, Wojciech; Wang, Feiyue; Macdonald, Robie W

    2012-12-01

    While much research has been carried out on mercury in large marine mammals and associated food webs in northern regions, comparatively less has been conducted on lower trophic levels including zooplankton and the subsequent transfer to predators, which marks the entry of mercury into northern marine food webs. We present here the first database for mercury uptake and transfer exclusively within zooplankton food webs in northern marine waters. We have investigated both total (THg) and monomethylmercury (MMHg) concentrations, and isotopic signatures (?(15)N and ?(13)C) in individual zooplankton taxa collected over a period of eight years (2003-2010) from across Hudson Bay (including Hudson Strait and Foxe Basin) as part of research icebreaker cruises. ?(15)N values ranged from 3.4 to 14.0‰, implying trophic levels ranging from 1 to 4, and THg concentrations ranged from 5 to 242 ng g(-1) dw. Food web linkages were identified within the data set, and mercury biomagnification was evident both with THg and MMHg concentrations increasing from prey to predator, and with trophic magnification factors (TMFs). Total mercury and MMHg transfer in a unique prey-predator linkage (Limacina helicina-Clione limacina) are investigated and discussed with regard to known physiological and biochemical characteristics. The results suggest that exposure to mercury at higher trophic levels including humans can be affected by processes at the bottom of Arctic marine food webs. PMID:23157666

  14. Dynamics of lake herring (Coregonus artedi) reactive volume for different crustacean zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jason Link

    1998-01-01

    Lake herring (Coregonus artedi) can drastically alter the zooplankton community of a lake through size-selective predation.\\u000a I studied the first step in the predation sequence, reaction to prey, for different zooplankton taxa by lake herring. Reactive\\u000a distance was significantly shorter for smaller zooplankton taxa (p < 0.0001). Reactive volume was calculated from measured\\u000a distances and angles of elevation and bearing.

  15. Diel Vertical Migration of zooplankton in a eutrophic bay of Lake Victoria

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ronald Semyalo; Juliet K. Nattabi; Petter Larsson

    2009-01-01

    We studied the Diel Vertical Migration (DVM) of several zooplankton taxa and an important zooplanktivore Rastrineobola argentea in a eutrophic bay of Lake Victoria for a total of 3 months during wet and dry seasons. Zooplankton were sampled twice a\\u000a month at full moon and new moon. The zooplankton community of this lake was numerically dominated by cyclopoid copepods (>80%)\\u000a of

  16. Selenium in San Francisco Bay zooplankton: Potential effects of hydrodynamics and food web interactions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Purkerson, D.G.; Doblin, M.A.; Bollens, S.M.; Luoma, S.N.; Cutter, G.A.

    2003-01-01

    The potential toxicity of elevated selenium (Se) concentrations in aquatic ecosystems has stimulated efforts to measure Se concentrations in benthos, nekton, and waterfowl in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay). In September 1998, we initiated a 14 mo field study to determine the concentration of Se in SF Bay zooplankton, which play a major role in the Bay food web, but which have not previously been studied with respect to Se. Monthly vertical plankton tows were collected at several stations throughout SF Bay, and zooplankton were separated into two operationally defined size classes for Se analyses: 73-2,000 ??m, and ???2,000 ??m. Selenium values ranged 1.02-6.07 ??g Se g-1 dry weight. No spatial differences in zooplankton Se concentrations were found. However, there were inter- and intra-annual differences. Zooplankton Se concentrations were enriched in the North Bay in Fall 1999 when compared to other seasons and locations within and outside SF Bay. The abundance and biovolume of the zooplankton community varied spatially between stations, but not seasonally within each station. Smaller herbivorous-omnivorous zooplankton had higher Se concentrations than larger omnivorous-carnivorous zooplankton. Selenium concentrations in zooplankton were negatively correlated with the proportion of total copepod biovolume comprising the large carnivorous copepod Tortanus dextrilobatus, but positively correlated with the proportion of copepod biovolume comprising smaller copepods of the family Oithonidae, suggesting an important role of trophic level and size in regulating zooplankton Se concentrations.

  17. Math 114 Class 23 Fall 2005 Population Models and Qualitative Analysis

    E-print Network

    Buckmire, Ron

    the population? How well do you think this model would work in capturing the bacterial growth over time? What that track the growth of a population over time; the SIR model we examined some weeks ago is such a model of population growth is known as both exponential growth and Malthus growth. Sketch the function dB/dt versus B

  18. A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness

    E-print Network

    O'Leary, Michael

    A Diffusion Model in Population Genetics with Mutation and Dynamic Fitness Mike O'Leary Department in Genetics Vanderbilt 2008 2 / 52 #12;The Discrete Model Consider a single haploid panmictic population in Genetics Vanderbilt 2008 3 / 52 #12;The Discrete Model Let the fraction of the population with allele Ai

  19. Mathematical model of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti mosquito population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldila, D.; Nuraini, N.; Soewono, E.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2014-03-01

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Dengue became major public concern in these countries due to the unavailability of vaccine or drugs for dengue disease in the market. Hence, the only way to control the spread of DF and DHF is by controlling the vectors carrying the disease, for instance with fumigation, temephos or genetic manipulation. Many previous studies conclude that Aedes aegypti may develop resistance to many kind of insecticide, including temephos. Mathematical model for transmission of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti population is discussed in this paper. Nontrivial equilibrium point of the system and the corresponding existence are shown analytically. The model analysis have shown epidemiological trends condition that permits the coexistence of nontrivial equilibrium is given analytically. Numerical results are given to show parameter sensitivity and some cases of worsening effect values for illustrating possible conditions in the field.

  20. Estimating population trends with a linear model: technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J.A.

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  1. Biomass of zooplankton in the eastern Arctic Ocean - A base line study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosobokova, Ksenia; Hirche, Hans-Jürgen

    2009-09-01

    Only a few historical assessments of the zooplankton biomass in the Arctic Ocean exist are difficult to compare due to methodological differences including incomplete sampling of the water column. We present assessments of the zooplankton biomass for 66 locations scattered over the Eurasian and Makarov Basins of the Arctic Ocean and analyze regional variability and factors affecting the biomass distribution. The study is based on material from several summer expeditions of RV Polarstern (1993-1998) that was collected and processed using consistent methods, i.e. stratified sampling of the entire water column from the bottom to the surface with very similar gear and standardized calculation of biomass. Total zooplankton biomass varied strongly from 1.9 to 23.9 g DW m -2 dry mass. Regional variability was mainly related to the circulation pattern, but local food availability was also important. A belt of elevated biomass along the Eurasian continental margin was associated with the advection of Atlantic pelagic populations within the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current along the Siberian shelves and returning branches along mid-ocean ridges. Biomass was highest in the core of the Atlantic inflow and remained rather stable along the continental margins, but species composition changed, pointing to different adaptation levels to local conditions by advected species. Biomass gradually decreased towards the shelves and basins and was lowest in the centers of the basins north of 85°N. In the slope region, three Calanus species ( C. hyperboreus, C. glacialis, C. finmarchicus) and Metridia longa contributed most to the biomass, chaetognaths ( Eukrohnia hamata) were also important. In the basins, C. hyperboreus was dominant, copepods made up to 97% of total biomass. Vertical distribution was similar at all stations with biomass maxima in the upper 50 m layer except for stations near Fram Strait and northern Kara Sea, the gateways of Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean, where maxima where between 25 and 100 m. As there was only very little interannual variability of temperature and current velocity in the regions of the Atlantic inflow we suggest that the majority of our samples, collected in 1993 and 1995, represents the phase of the 1990s warm event in the Nordic Seas.

  2. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of estimating these frequencies for future work. Modeling of nuisance source populations is only useful if it helps in understanding detector system performance in real operational environments. Examples of previous studies in which nuisance source models played a key role are briefly discussed. These include screening of in-bound urban traffic and monitoring of shipping containers in transit to U.S. ports.

  3. Modeling white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus population control by contraception

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Steven W. Seagle; John D. Close

    1996-01-01

    Large populations of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus present conservation problems in suburban landscapes because of limited population control options. We used the GAPPS II modeling system to simulate temporal effects of contraception on deer population control and the interaction between contraception and uncertain immigration rates. Contraception rates less than 50% of female deer curbed population growth with a long (30

  4. Modeling effects of chemicals on a population: application to a wading bird nesting colony

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas G. Hallam; Tamara L. Trawick; Wilfried F. Wolff

    1996-01-01

    An approach for the study of effects of chemical contamination of an avian population is described. The protocol consists of four components: (1) an individual model that is coupled with (2) a chemical exposure model; and (3) a population model together with (4) an effects model. The model-based protocol is generic, delineates types of information required for ecological assessment and

  5. Ecological impact and environmental fate of perfluorooctane sulfonate on the zooplankton community in indoor microcosms.

    PubMed

    Sanderson, Hans; Boudreau, Timothy M; Mabury, Scott A; Cheong, Woo-Jay; Solomon, Keith R

    2002-07-01

    There is presently a substantial amount of information being gathered concerning the environmental risk associated with the perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) compound. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) is requiring that more research be completed before making definitive decisions concerning the regulatory issues covered in the significant new use rule (18/10-2000) under the Toxic Substance Control Act. However, there are no risk assessment requirements under seminatural conditions in microcosms. The PFOS can enter, and has been found in, the aquatic environment through different pathways, including spills associated with use of fire-fighting foams containing PFOS, leaching from washing Scotchgard-treated clothes with the wastewater, leaching from various coatings, discharges as residual waste from fluorochemical production, or volatilization and transportation atmospherically. The biota is the sink of PFOS rather than the sediment or soil. The aim of this article is to determine a 35-d community no-observable-effect concentration (NOECcommunity) for freshwater zooplankton and the fate of PFOS during the course of study. The PFOS persisted in the water phase with only slight reductions over the study; only the decrease from 33.9 mg/L at day 1 to 29.8 mg/L at day 35 was significant. A 90 to 100% reduction (p < 0.01) of the total zooplankton population was found after one week of exposure to 30 mg PFOS/L and a similar reduction after two weeks at 10 mg PFOS/L. The Daphnia magna 21-d NOECsurvival of 12 mg/L has previously been found in a standard laboratory bioassay by 3M. The rank order of susceptibility for the test community was Copepoda > Cladocera > Rotifera, assuming all adverse direct effects. PMID:12109751

  6. Solar UVB-induced DNA damage and photoenzymatic DNA repair in antarctic zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Malloy, K.D.; Holman, M.A. [Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States)] [Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States); Mitchell, D. [Univ. of Texas, Smithville, TX (United States)] [and others] [Univ. of Texas, Smithville, TX (United States); and others

    1997-02-18

    The detrimental effects of elevated intensities of mid-UV radiation (UVB), a result of stratospheric ozone depletion during the austral spring, on the primary producers of the Antarctic marine ecosystem have been well documented. Here we report that natural populations of Antarctic zooplankton also sustain significant DNA damage [measured as cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs)] during periods of increased UVB flux. This is the first direct evidence that increased solar UVB may result in damage to marine organisms other than primary producers in Antarctica. The extent of DNA damage in pelagic icefish eggs correlated with daily incident UVB irradiance, reflecting the difference between acquisition and repair of CPDs. Patterns of DNA damage in fish larvae did not correlated with daily UVB flux, possibly due to different depth distributions and/or different capacities for DNA repair. Clearance of CPDs by Antarctic fish and krill was mediated primarily by the photoenzymatic repair system. Although repair rates were large for all species evaluated, they were apparently inadequate to prevent the transient accumulation of substantial CPD burdens. The capacity for DNA repair in Antarctic organisms was highest in those species whose early life history stages occupy the water column during periods of ozone depletion (austral spring) and lowest in fish species whose eggs and larvae are abundant during winter. Although the potential reduction in fitness of Antarctic zooplankton resulting from DNA damage is unknown, we suggest that increased solar UV may reduce recruitment and adversely affect trophic transfer of productivity by affecting heterotrophic species as well as primary producers. 54 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Utilization of Matrix Population Models to Assess a 3Year Single Treatment Nonsurgical Contraception Program Versus Surgical Sterilization in Feral Cat Populations

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Christine M. Budke; Margaret R. Slater

    2009-01-01

    This study constructed matrix population models to explore feral cat population growth for a hypothetical population (a) in the absence of intervention; (b) with a traditional surgical sterilization-based trap, neuter, and return program; and (c) with a single treatment 3-year nonsurgical contraception program. Model outcomes indicated that cessation of population growth would require surgical sterilization for greater than 51% of

  8. Explaining the Linguistic Diversity of Sahul Using Population Models

    PubMed Central

    Reesink, Ger; Singer, Ruth; Dunn, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The region of the ancient Sahul continent (present day Australia and New Guinea, and surrounding islands) is home to extreme linguistic diversity. Even apart from the huge Austronesian language family, which spread into the area after the breakup of the Sahul continent in the Holocene, there are hundreds of languages from many apparently unrelated families. On each of the subcontinents, the generally accepted classification recognizes one large, widespread family and a number of unrelatable smaller families. If these language families are related to each other, it is at a depth which is inaccessible to standard linguistic methods. We have inferred the history of structural characteristics of these languages under an admixture model, using a Bayesian algorithm originally developed to discover populations on the basis of recombining genetic markers. This analysis identifies 10 ancestral language populations, some of which can be identified with clearly defined phylogenetic groups. The results also show traces of early dispersals, including hints at ancient connections between Australian languages and some Papuan groups (long hypothesized, never before demonstrated). Systematic language contact effects between members of big phylogenetic groups are also detected, which can in some cases be identified with a diffusional or substrate signal. Most interestingly, however, there remains striking evidence of a phylogenetic signal, with many languages showing negligible amounts of admixture. PMID:19918360

  9. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    PubMed

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-01-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. PMID:24496184

  10. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    PubMed

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-04-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. PMID:23539229

  11. Basic Concepts in Population Modeling, Simulation, and Model-Based Drug Development: Part 3—Introduction to Pharmacodynamic Modeling Methods

    PubMed Central

    Upton, R N; Mould, D R

    2014-01-01

    Population pharmacodynamic (PD) models describe the time course of drug effects, relating exposure to response, and providing a more robust understanding of drug action than single assessments. PD models can test alternative dose regimens through simulation, allowing for informed assessment of potential dose regimens and study designs. This is the third paper in a three-part series, providing an introduction into methods for developing and evaluating population PD models. Example files are available in the Supplementary Data. PMID:24384783

  12. Consistent two-population lattice Boltzmann model for thermal flows.

    PubMed

    Karlin, I V; Sichau, D; Chikatamarla, S S

    2013-12-01

    Theory of two-population lattice Boltzmann equations for thermal flow simulations is revisited. The present approach makes use of a consistent division of the conservation laws between the two lattices, where mass and the momentum are conserved quantities on the first lattice, and the energy is conserved quantity of the second lattice. The theory of such a division is developed, and the advantage of energy conservation in the model construction is demonstrated in detail. The present fully local lattice Boltzmann theory is specified on the standard lattices for the simulation of thermal flows. Extension to the subgrid entropic lattice Boltzmann formulation is also given. The theory is validated with a set of standard two-dimensional simulations including planar Couette flow and natural convection in two dimensions. PMID:24483587

  13. POPULATION GENETICS MODELS WITH SKEWED FERTILITIES: A FORWARD AND BACKWARD ANALYSIS

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    POPULATION GENETICS MODELS WITH SKEWED FERTILITIES: A FORWARD AND BACKWARD ANALYSIS THIERRY HUILLET, MARTIN M¨OHLE Abstract. Discrete population genetics models with unequal (skewed) fertil- ities. For each class the asymptotic behavior as the total population size N tends to infinity is investigated

  14. Math 151 -Fall 2005 -Project #4 The Leslie Population Model in a Random Environment

    E-print Network

    Gross, Louis J.

    Math 151 - Fall 2005 - Project #4 The Leslie Population Model in a Random Environment: Consider that the population projection matrix is: 0 1. F P = .5 0 0 0 q 0 where the parameter q is calculated by ( ( your age the Leslie model of a population with three classes (call them J for juveniles, Y for young adults

  15. Math 151 -Fall 2004 -Project #4 The Leslie Population Model in a Random Environment

    E-print Network

    Gross, Louis J.

    Math 151 - Fall 2004 - Project #4 The Leslie Population Model in a Random Environment: Consider that the population projection matrix is: 0 1. F P = .5 0 0 0 q 0 where the parameter q is calculated by ( ( your age the Leslie model of a population with three classes (call them J for juveniles, Y for young adults

  16. Modelling targets for anticancer drug control optimization in physiologically structured cell population models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billy, Frédérique; Clairambault, Jean; Fercoq, Olivier; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Lorz, Alexander; Perthame, Benoît

    2012-09-01

    The main two pitfalls of therapeutics in clinical oncology, that limit increasing drug doses, are unwanted toxic side effects on healthy cell populations and occurrence of resistance to drugs in cancer cell populations. Depending on the constraint considered in the control problem at stake, toxicity or drug resistance, we present two different ways to model the evolution of proliferating cell populations, healthy and cancer, under the control of anti-cancer drugs. In the first case, we use a McKendrick age-structured model of the cell cycle, whereas in the second case, we use a model of evolutionary dynamics, physiologically structured according to a continuous phenotype standing for drug resistance. In both cases, we mention how drug targets may be chosen so as to accurately represent the effects of cytotoxic and of cytostatic drugs, separately, and how one may consider the problem of optimisation of combined therapies.

  17. EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACY OF EXTRAPOLATION POPULATION MODELING TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA POPULATIONS IN THE LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    An age-classified projection matrix model has been developed to extrapolate the chronic (28-35d) demographic responses of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) to population-level response. This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this model for predicting t...

  18. Evaluation of alternative management strategies of muskrat Ondatra zibethicus population control using a population model

    Microsoft Academic Search

    D. Bos; R. Ydenberg

    2011-01-01

    Muskrats Ondatra zibethicus are considered a pest species in the Netherlands, and a year-round control programme is in effect. Currently, the agency responsible for the management of muskrat populations in the Netherlands (the LCCM) is preparing for field studies to compare alternative strategies of control. In order to decide on the specific design of such field studies, a population dynamic

  19. EVALUATING HABITAT AS A SURROGATE FOR POPULATION VIABILITY USING A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT POPULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-sho...

  20. Spatial and temporal variation in mercury bioaccumulation by zooplankton in Lake Champlain (North America)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Celia Chen; Neil Kamman; Jason Williams; Deenie Bugge; Vivien Taylor; Brian Jackson; Eric Miller

    Trophic transfer of Hg across lakes within a region has been related to multiple environmental factors, but the nature of these relationships across distinct basins within individual large lakes is unknown. We investigated Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton in basins of differing trophic status in Lake Champlain (Vermont, USA) to determine the strongest predictors of Hg bioaccumulation. Zooplankton were sampled in

  1. Metabolic rates of epipelagic marine zooplankton as a function of body mass and temperature

    Microsoft Academic Search

    T. Ikeda

    1985-01-01

    The metabolic rates (oxygen uptake, ammonia excretion, phosphate excretion) of epipelagic marine zooplankton have been expressed as a function of body mass (dry, carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus weights) and habitat temperature, using the multiple-regression method. Zooplankton data used for this analysis are from phylogenetically mixed groups (56 to 143 species, representing 7 to 8 phyla, body mass range: 6 orders

  2. Carbon pathways to zooplankton: insights from the combined use of stable isotope and fatty acid biomarkers

    E-print Network

    Mazumder, Asit

    CARRTEL INRA, Thonon-les-Bains, France Aquatic Ecosystem Management Research Division, National Water). Zooplankton can graze on a wide range of food sources (i.e. phytoplankton, detri- tus, bacteria, ciliates and detritus (Baines & Pace, 1991). Evidence for zooplankton relying on allochthonous C has been provided

  3. Zooplankton Grazing and Phytoplankton Abundance: an Assessment Before and After Invasion of Dreissena Polymorpha

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lin Wu; David A. Culver

    1991-01-01

    The introduction of the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha into Lake Erie raises the question of whether it competes with the existing zooplankton community for phytoplankton. In this study, we approached this question by examining the role of zooplankton grazing in influencing Lake Erie abiotic conditions and biotic interactions during 2 years of varying zebra mussel abundances. In situ grazing experiments

  4. Spatial Patterns in Assemblage Structures of Pelagic Forage Fish and Zooplankton in Western Lake Superior

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Timothy B. Johnson; Michael H. Hoff; Anett S. Trebitz; Charles R. Bronte; Timothy D. Corry; James F. Kitchell; Stephen J. Lozano; Doran M. Mason; Jill V. Scharold; Stephen T. Schram; Donald R. Schreiner

    2004-01-01

    We assessed abundance, size, and species composition of forage fish and zooplankton communities of western Lake Superior during August 1996 and July 1997. Data were analyzed for three ecoregions (Duluth-Superior, Apostle Islands, and the open lake) differing in bathymetry and limnological and biological patterns. Zooplankton abundance was three times higher in the Duluth-Superior and Apostle Islands regions than in the

  5. Relationships of Lake Herring (Coregonus artedi) Gill Raker Characteristics to Retention Probabilities of Zooplankton Prey

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jason Link; Michael H. Hoff

    1998-01-01

    We measured morphometric and meristic parameters of gill rakers from the first gill arch of 36 adult lake herring (Coregonus artedi) from Lake Superior that ranged in length from 283–504 mm. These data, coupled with the mean of the smallest two body dimensions (length, width, or breadth) of various zooplankton prey, allowed us to calculate retention probabilities for zooplankton taxa

  6. Annual cycle of zooplankton abundance and species composition in Izmit Bay (the northeastern Marmara Sea)

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Melek Isinibilir; Ahmet E. Kideys; Ahmet N. Tarkan; I. Noyan Yilmaz

    2008-01-01

    The monthly abundance, biomass and taxonomic composition of zooplankton of Izmit Bay (the northeastern Marmara Sea) were studied from October 2001 to September 2002. Most species within the zooplankton community displayed a clear pattern of succession throughout the year. Generally copepods and cladocerans were the most abundant groups, while the contribution of meroplankton increased at inner-most stations and dominated the

  7. Distribution, abundance, and substrate preferences of demersal reef zooplankton at Lizard Island Lagoon, Great Barrier Reef

    Microsoft Academic Search

    A. L. Alldredge; J. M. King

    1977-01-01

    Demersal zooplankton, those plankton which hide within reef sediments during the day but emerge to swim freely over the reef at night, were sampled quantitatively using emergence traps planced over the substrate at Lizard Island Lagoon, Great Barrier Reef. Densities of zooplankton emerging at night from 6 substrate types (fine, medium, and coarse sand, rubble, living coral and reef rock)

  8. Distribution of zooplankton in the Northeast Water Polynya during summer 1992

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Carin Ashjian; Sharon Smith; Francesco Bignami; Tom Hopkins

    1997-01-01

    The distribution and abundances of zooplankton in the Northeast Water (NEW) Polynya during the summer of 1992 have been determined from samples collected with Bongo (this study) and MOCNESS (earlier analysis) plankton net tows. The initial hypothesis was that the troughts of the Greenland Shelf in the region of the NEW polynya would be conduits for the infusion of zooplankton

  9. SPATIAL PATTERNS IN ASSEMBLAGE STRUCTURES OF PELAGIC FORAGE FISH AND ZOOPLANKTON IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript reports on the spatial distribution of zooplankton and forage fish in western Lake Superior. Fish and zooplankton assemblages are shown to differ substantially in abundance and size structure both between the open lake and nearshore regions and between two differe...

  10. Dynamics of Summer Biomass of Zooplankton in Lakes of the Zone of Temperate Climate

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. B. Ivanova

    2003-01-01

    There is presently a large body of experimental data concerning the seasonal dynamics of zooplankton in lakes of the zone of temperate climate. These data were obtained in many studies and provided hydrobiologists with a sufficiently deep insight into the processes of zooplankton development in these lakes during the vegetation season. The onset of intense development of Protozoa and Rotatoria

  11. Relative significance of direct and indirect effects of predation by planktivorous fish on zooplankton

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Z. Maciej Gliwicz

    1994-01-01

    One of the most obvious features of tropical lakes and reservoirs is the small body size of their zooplankton taxa. It is believed that this is the result of high and persistent predation by abundant planktivorous fish, which select large-bodied zooplankton prey thus making them more vulnerable to extinction in tropical as compared to temperate habitats. Do these extinctions result

  12. A review of zooplankton investigations of the Black Sea over the last decade

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Ahmet E. Kideys; Alexander V. Kovalev; Gregory Shulman; Anna Gordina; Ferit Bingel

    2000-01-01

    Investigations performed in the last decade indicate that there have been important changes in the zooplankton composition and structure in the Black Sea. However, contrasting events taking place in different regions of the Black Sea indicate a non-uniform structure of its ecosystem.Several fodder zooplankton species have either disappeared from or substantially decreased in number at different sampling sites of the

  13. Effect of Main-stem Dams on Zooplankton Communities of the Missouri River (USA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We examined the distribution and abundance of zooplankton from 146 sites on the Missouri River and found large shifts in the dominance of major taxa between management zones of this regulated river. Crustacean zooplankton were dominant in the inter-reservoir zone of the river, an...

  14. Measurements of acoustic scattering from zooplankton and oceanic microstructure using a broadband echosounder

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Andone C. Lavery; Dezhang Chu; James N. Moum

    2010-01-01

    In principle, measurements of high-frequency acoustic scattering from oceanic microstructure and zooplankton across a broad range of frequencies can reduce the ambiguities typically associated with the interpretation of acoustic scattering at a single frequency or a limited number of discrete narrowband frequencies. With this motivation, a high-frequency broadband scattering system has been developed for investigating zooplankton and microstructure, involving custom

  15. Summer zooplankton dynamics in the limnetic and littoral zones of a humic acid lake

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Karl E. Havens

    1991-01-01

    The limnetic and littoral zooplankton were studied during summer 1989 in Triangle Lake, a humic acid (pH 4.9) bog lake in Ohio, USA. The limnetic zooplankton showed low species richness and biomass, and dominance by the rotifers Kellicottia bostoniensis and Polyarthra vulgaris. In the littoral, species richness and biomass were markedly higher, and the crustaceans Alona guttata, Ceriodaphnia quadrangula, Chydorus

  16. PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON SEASONAL DYNAMICS IN A SUBTROPICAL ESTUARY: IMPORTANCE OF CYANOBACTERIA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Murrell, Michael C. and Emile M. Lores. 2004. Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Seasonal Dynamics in a Subtropical Estuary: Importance of Cyanobacteria. J. Plankton Res. 26(3):371-382. (ERL,GB 1190). A seasonal study of phytoplankton and zooplankton was conducted from 1999-20...

  17. MODELING THE IMPLICATIONS OF STRESSOR INTERACTIONS FOR WILDLIFE POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Wildlife risk assessments have traditionally explored the consequences, for a single individual, of exposure to a single stressor. But attention has recently included the study of population-level responses to exposure. Wildlife populations are often subjected to multiple stres...

  18. The importance of zooplankton to the daily metabolic carbon requirements of healthy and bleached corals at two depths

    E-print Network

    Grottoli, Andréa G.

    The importance of zooplankton to the daily metabolic carbon requirements of healthy and bleached September 2008 Keywords: Coral bleaching Coral feeding CHAR Depth Heterotrophy Zooplankton Bleached and non-bleached of zooplankton from all size classes. Results show that the proportionate effects of species, depth and bleaching

  19. Vertical distribution of zooplankton in subalpine and alpine lakes: Ultraviolet radiation, fish predation, and the transparency-gradient hypothesis

    E-print Network

    Williamson, Craig E.

    as a proxy for fish predation), temperature, pH, conductivity, chlorophyll a (Chl a), and zooplanktonVertical distribution of zooplankton in subalpine and alpine lakes: Ultraviolet radiation, fish) is a primary determinant of the vertical distribution of zooplankton in transparent lakes with fewer fish

  20. Population Ratios and Prejudice: Modelling Both Contact and Threat Effects

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas F. Pettigrew; Ulrich Wagner; Oliver Christ

    2010-01-01

    Are small or large outgroup populations more closely related to an ingroup's prejudice? This paper addresses this question with national probability survey data from Germany focused on resident foreigners. Two interlocking processes underlie the complex relationship between population proportions and prejudice. Typically, larger outgroup population proportions simultaneously increase both threat and intergroup contact. The first process increases prejudice, the second

  1. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AT EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing, applying, and evaluating population-based exposure models to improve our understanding of the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants. Estimates of population variability are needed for E...

  2. PopMod: a longitudinal population model with two interacting disease states

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jeremy A Lauer; Klaus Röhrich; Harald Wirth; Claude Charette; Steve Gribble; Christopher JL Murray

    2003-01-01

    This article provides a description of the population model PopMod, which is designed to simulate the health and mortality experience of an arbitrary population subjected to two interacting disease conditions as well as all other \\

  3. Seasonal changes in zooplankton abundance, biomass, size structure and dominant copepods in the Oyashio region analysed by an optical plankton counter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Matsuno, Kohei; Abe, Yoshiyuki; Arima, Daichi; Ohgi, Kohei

    2014-09-01

    To identify seasonal patterns of change in zooplankton communities, an optical plankton counter (OPC) and microscopic analysis were utilised to characterise zooplankton samples collected from 0 to 150 m and 0 to 500 m in the Oyashio region every one to three months from 2002 to 2007. Based on the OPC measurements, the abundance and biomass of zooplankton peaked in June (0-150 m) or August (150-500 m), depending on the depth stratum. The peak periods of the copepod species that were dominant in terms of abundance and biomass indicated species-specific patterns. Three Neocalanus species (Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri and Neocalanus plumchrus) exhibited abundance peaks that occurred before their biomass peaks, whereas Eucalanus bungii and Metridia pacifica experienced biomass peaks before their abundance peaks. The abundance peaks corresponded to the recruitment periods of early copepodid stages, whereas the biomass peaks corresponded to the periods when the dominant populations reached the late copepodid stages (C5 or C6). Because the reproduction of Neocalanus spp. occurred in the deep layer (>500 m), their biomass peaks were observed when the major populations reached stage C5 after the abundance peaks of the early copepodid stages. The reproduction of E. bungii and M. pacifica occurred near the surface layer. These species first formed biomass peaks of C6 and later developed abundance peaks of newly recruited early copepodid stages. From the comparison between OPC measurements and microscopic analyses, seasonal changes in zooplankton biomass at depths of 0-150 m were governed primarily by E. bungii and M. pacifica, whereas those at depths of 150-500 m were primarily caused by the three Neocalanus species.

  4. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    PubMed

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. PMID:23565966

  5. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  6. Performance of a model for a local neuron population.

    PubMed

    Zetterberg, L H; Kristiansson, L; Mossberg, K

    1978-11-10

    A model of a local neuron population is considered that contains three subsets of neurons, one main excitatory subset, an auxiliary excitatory subset and an inhibitory subset. They are connected in one positive and one negative feedback loop, each containing linear dynamic and nonlinear static elements. The network also allows for a positive linear feedback loop. The behaviour of this network is studied for sinusoidal and white noise inputs. First steady state conditions are investigated and with this as starting point the linearized network is defined and conditions for stability is discovered. With white noise as input the stable network produces rhythmic activity whose spectral properties are investigated for various input levels. With a mean input of a certain level the network becomes unstable and the characteristics of these limit cycles are investigated in terms of occurence and amplitude. An electronic model has been built to study more closely the waveforms under both stable and unstable conditions. It is shown to produce signals that resemble EEG background activity and certain types of paroxysmal activity, in particular spikes. PMID:728488

  7. Time variability of acoustic backscatter from zooplankton in the Ibiza Channel (western Mediterranean)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinot, J. M.; Jansá, J.

    2001-07-01

    One year of mean volume backscattering strength (MVBS) data obtained from an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) moored at 240 m in the Ibiza Channel is analysed. It shows the prominent effect of light on the zooplankton distribution in the surface layer. Two communities of zooplankton can be differentiated, both of which perform diel vertical migrations (DVM). They initiate descent at dawn, reach a maximum depth at noon, and finish ascent at dusk. Fast "primary" migrators, which quite homogeneously filled the surface layer at night, generally descended below the ADCP during day-time, whereas slower "secondary" migrators always remained above the instrument. The vertical motion of primary zooplankton at dawn and dusk was strong enough to be directly measured by the ADCP (±3- 4 cm s -1). The vertical velocity of secondary zooplankton inferred from the slope of MVBS contours did not exceed a few tenths of cm s -1. Variations in DVM show a great dependence on light intensity: (1) The depth attained by zooplankton at noon was modulated by the annual cycle of sunlight and was maximum/minimum around the summer/winter solstice. (2) Some primary zooplankton remained above the ADCP during day-time on days of heavy cloud cover in winter. (3) The preferential depth of zooplankton at night followed the cycle of moonlight (29.5 days). Primary zooplankton were present all year at the mooring, whereas seasonal variations are seen in the abundance of secondary zooplankton. Maximum abundance is found in summer with enhanced concentration in the thermocline (upper 60 m), and minimum abundance in early winter after the erosion of the thermocline. A bloom is also observed in late winter. These observations are discussed in the context of past zooplankton surveys in the area. Fast primary migrators could consist of euphausiids (alternatively, micronekton, e.g. myctophids). A fraction of slow secondary migrators very likely are copepods.

  8. The role of dust in models of population synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassarà, L. P.; Piovan, L.; Weiss, A.; Salaris, M.; Chiosi, C.

    2013-12-01

    We have employed state-of-the-art evolutionary models of low- and intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars and included the effect of circumstellar dust shells on the spectral energy distribution (SED) of AGB stars in order to revise the Padua library of isochrones, which covers an extended range of ages and initial chemical compositions. The major revision involves the thermally pulsing AGB phase, which is now taken from fully evolutionary calculations by Weiss & Ferguson. Two libraries of about 600 AGB dust-enshrouded SEDs each have also been calculated, one for oxygen-rich M stars and one for carbon-rich C stars. Each library accounts for different values of input parameters like the optical depth ?, dust composition and temperature of the inner boundary of the dust shell. These libraries of dusty AGB spectra have been implemented into a large composite library of theoretical stellar spectra, to cover all regions of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (HRD) crossed by the isochrones. With the aid of the above isochrones and libraries of stellar SEDs, we have calculated the spectrophotometric properties (SEDs, magnitudes and colours) of single-generation stellar populations (SSPs) for six metallicities, more than 50 ages (from ˜3 Myr to 15 Gyr) and nine choices of the initial mass function. The new isochrones and SSPs have been compared with the colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of field populations in the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, with particular emphasis on AGB stars, and the integrated colours of star clusters in the same galaxies, using data from the catalogue `Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution' (SAGE). We have also examined the integrated colours of a small sample of star clusters located on the outskirts of M31. The agreement between theory and observations is generally good. In particular, the new SSPs reproduce the red tails of the AGB star distribution in the CMDs of field stars in the Magellanic Clouds. Some discrepancies still exist and need to be investigated further.

  9. Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

    PubMed

    Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

    2012-12-01

    A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. PMID:23253367

  10. Stellar Population Models and Individual Element Abundances. I. Sensitivity of Stellar Evolution Models

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Aaron Dotter; Brian Chaboyer; Jason W. Ferguson; Hyun-chul Lee; Guy Worthey; Darko Jevremovic; E. Baron

    2007-01-01

    Integrated light from distant galaxies is often compared to stellar population models via the equivalent widths of spectral features-spectral indices-whose strengths rely on the abundances of one or more elements. Such comparisons hinge not only on the overall metal abundance, but also on relative abundances. Studies have examined the influence of individual elements on synthetic spectra but little has been

  11. Evolutionary models of color categorization II Realistic observer models and population heterogeneity

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Kimberly A. Jameson; Natalia L. Komarova

    2009-01-01

    The evolution of color categorization is investigated using computer simulations of agent population categori- zation games. Various realistic observer types are implemented based on Farnsworth-Munsell 100 Hue Test human performance data from normal and anomalous trichromats, dichromats, and humans with four retinal photopigments. Results show that (i) a small percentage of realistically modeled deficient agents greatly affects the shared categorization

  12. Neustonic microplastic and zooplankton in the North Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Collignon, Amandine; Hecq, Jean-Henri; Glagani, François; Voisin, Pierre; Collard, France; Goffart, Anne

    2012-04-01

    Neustonic microplastic and zooplankton abundance was determined in the North Western Mediterranean Sea during a summer cruise between July 9th and August 6th 2010, with a break between July 22 th and 25th due to a strong wind event. Ninety percent of the 40 stations contained microplastic particles (size 0.3-5mm) of various compositions: e.g., filaments, polystyrene, thin plastic films. An average concentration of 0.116 particles/m(2) was observed. The highest abundances (>0.36 particles/m(2)) were observed in shelf stations. The neustonic plastic particles concentrations were 5 times higher before than after the strong wind event which increased the mixing and the vertical repartition of plastic particles in the upper layers of the water column. The values rise in the same order of magnitude than in the North Pacific Gyre. The average ratio between microplastics and mesozooplankton weights was 0.5 for the whole survey and might induce a potential confusion for zooplankton feeders. PMID:22325448

  13. Concentration of chemical elements by zooplankton of the White Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonova, G. A.; Bobrov, V. A.; Bogush, A. A.; Bychinskii, V. A.

    2013-02-01

    A technique of net sampling of zooplankton at night in the Kandalaksha and Dvinskii Bays and during the full tide in the Onezhskii Bay of the White Sea allowed us to obtain "clean" samples without considerable admixtures of terrigenous suspension. The absence of elements-indicators of the terrigenous suspension (Al, Ti, and Zr) in the EDX spectra allows concluding that the ash composition of the tested samples is defined by the constitutional elements comprising the organic matter and integument (chitin, shells) of planktonic organisms. A quantitative assessment of the accumulation of a large group of chemical elements (approximately 40) by zooplankton based on a complex of modern physical methods of analysis is presented. The values of the coefficient of the biological accumulation of the elements (Kb) calculated for the organic matter and the enrichment factors (EF) relative to the Clarke concentrations in the shale are in general determined by the mobility of the chemical elements in the aqueous solution, which is confirmed by the calculated chemical speciation of the elements in the inorganic subsystem of the surface waters of Onezhskii Bay.

  14. Diel vertical migration of Arctic zooplankton during the polar night.

    PubMed

    Berge, Jørgen; Cottier, Finlo; Last, Kim S; Varpe, Øystein; Leu, Eva; Søreide, Janne; Eiane, Ketil; Falk-Petersen, Stig; Willis, Kate; Nygård, Henrik; Vogedes, Daniel; Griffiths, Colin; Johnsen, Geir; Lorentzen, Dag; Brierley, Andrew S

    2009-02-23

    High-latitude environments show extreme seasonal variation in physical and biological variables. The classic paradigm of Arctic marine ecosystems holds that most biological processes slow down or cease during the polar night. One key process that is generally assumed to cease during winter is diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton. DVM constitutes the largest synchronized movement of biomass on the planet, and is of paramount importance for marine ecosystem function and carbon cycling. Here we present acoustic data that demonstrate a synchronized DVM behaviour of zooplankton that continues throughout the Arctic winter, in both open and ice-covered waters. We argue that even during the polar night, DVM is regulated by diel variations in solar and lunar illumination, which are at intensities far below the threshold of human perception. We also demonstrate that winter DVM is stronger in open waters compared with ice-covered waters. This suggests that the biologically mediated vertical flux of carbon will increase if there is a continued retreat of the Arctic winter sea ice cover. PMID:18948249

  15. Zooplankton Feeding on the Nuisance Flagellate Gonyostomum semen

    PubMed Central

    Johansson, Karin S. L.; Vrede, Tobias; Lebret, Karen; Johnson, Richard K.

    2013-01-01

    The large bloom-forming flagellate Gonyostomum semen has been hypothesized to be inedible to naturally occurring zooplankton due to its large cell size and ejection of long slimy threads (trichocysts) induced by physical stimulation. In a grazing experiment using radiolabelled algae and zooplankton collected from lakes with recurring blooms of G. semen and lakes that rarely experience blooms, we found that Eudiaptomus gracilis and Holopedium gibberum fed on G. semen at high rates, whereas Daphnia cristata and Ceriodaphnia spp. did not. Grazing rates of E. gracilis were similar between bloom-lakes and lakes with low biomass of G. semen, indicating that the ability to feed on G. semen was not a result of local adaptation. The high grazing rates of two of the taxa in our experiment imply that some of the nutrients and energy taken up by G. semen can be transferred directly to higher trophic levels, although the predominance of small cladocerans during blooms may limit the importance of G. semen as a food resource. Based on grazing rates and previous observations on abundances of E. gracilis and H. gibberum, we conclude that there is a potential for grazer control of G. semen and discuss why blooms of G. semen still occur. PMID:23667489

  16. A “Rosetta Stone” for metazoan zooplankton: DNA barcode analysis of species diversity of the Sargasso Sea (Northwest Atlantic Ocean)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucklin, Ann; Ortman, Brian D.; Jennings, Robert M.; Nigro, Lisa M.; Sweetman, Christopher J.; Copley, Nancy J.; Sutton, Tracey; Wiebe, Peter H.

    2010-12-01

    Species diversity of the metazoan holozooplankton assemblage of the Sargasso Sea, Northwest Atlantic Ocean, was examined through coordinated morphological taxonomic identification of species and DNA sequencing of a ˜650 base-pair region of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) as a DNA barcode (i.e., short sequence for species recognition and discrimination). Zooplankton collections were made from the surface to 5,000 meters during April, 2006 on the R/V R.H. Brown. Samples were examined by a ship-board team of morphological taxonomists; DNA barcoding was carried out in both ship-board and land-based DNA sequencing laboratories. DNA barcodes were determined for a total of 297 individuals of 175 holozooplankton species in four phyla, including: Cnidaria (Hydromedusae, 4 species; Siphonophora, 47); Arthropoda (Amphipoda, 10; Copepoda, 34; Decapoda, 9; Euphausiacea, 10; Mysidacea, 1; Ostracoda, 27); and Mollusca (Cephalopoda, 8; Heteropoda, 6; Pteropoda, 15); and Chaetognatha (4). Thirty species of fish (Teleostei) were also barcoded. For all seven zooplankton groups for which sufficient data were available, Kimura-2-Parameter genetic distances were significantly lower between individuals of the same species (mean=0.0114; S.D. 0.0117) than between individuals of different species within the same group (mean=0.3166; S.D. 0.0378). This difference, known as the barcode gap, ensures that mtCOI sequences are reliable characters for species identification for the oceanic holozooplankton assemblage. In addition, DNA barcodes allow recognition of new or undescribed species, reveal cryptic species within known taxa, and inform phylogeographic and population genetic studies of geographic variation. The growing database of "gold standard" DNA barcodes serves as a Rosetta Stone for marine zooplankton, providing the key for decoding species diversity by linking species names, morphology, and DNA sequence variation. In light of the pivotal position of zooplankton in ocean food webs, their usefulness as rapid responders to environmental change, and the increasing scarcity of taxonomists, the use of DNA barcodes is an important and useful approach for rapid analysis of species diversity and distribution in the pelagic community.

  17. EVALUATION OF OPTICALLY ACQUIRED ZOOPLANKTON SIZE-SPECTRUM DATA AS A POTENTIAL TOOL FOR ASSESSMENT OF CONDITION IN THE GREAT LAKES

    EPA Science Inventory

    An optical zooplankton counter (OPC) potentially provides as assessment tool for zooplankton condition in ecosystems that is rapid, economical, and spatially extensive. We collected zooplankton data with an optical zooplankton counter in 20 near-shore regions of four of the Laure...

  18. Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holms, A. G.

    1974-01-01

    Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

  19. Senescence and antibiotic resistance in an age-structured population model

    E-print Network

    Gedeon, Tomas

    Senescence and antibiotic resistance in an age-structured population model Patrick De Leenheer Jack the growing problem of antibiotic resistance of microbial populations. Here we investigate a model-called persister cells which are resistant to antibiotic treatment. We study a chemostat model with a microbial

  20. Asymmetries in population growth regulated by intraspecific competition: Empirical studies and model tests

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Mark J. Pomerantz; William R. Thomas; Michael E. Gilpin

    1980-01-01

    The linearity assumption in the logistic model of population growth is violated for nearly all organisms. Two simple models, the ?-logistic and the ?-Ricker, are shown to account for asymmetric patterns of population growth for 27 species of Drosophila and for a variety of other organisms, where the data were derived from the literature. These models are developed so as

  1. Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jacek A Kopec; Philippe Finès; Douglas G Manuel; David L Buckeridge; William M Flanagan; Jillian Oderkirk; Michal Abrahamowicz; Samuel Harper; Behnam Sharif; Anya Okhmatovskaia; Eric C Sayre; M Mushfiqur Rahman; Michael C Wolfson

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models. METHODS: We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of

  2. Modelling fish population movements: from an individual-based representation to an

    E-print Network

    Paris-Sud XI, Université de

    Modelling fish population movements: from an individual-based representation to an advection`ete cedex, France Abstract In this paper we address the problem of modelling fish population movements. We is formulated as a biased random walk model in which the velocity of each fish has both a deterministic

  3. Population Genetics Models of Competition Between Transposable Element Subfamilies

    PubMed Central

    Rouzic, Arnaud Le; Capy, Pierre

    2006-01-01

    Transposable elements are one of the major components of genomes. Some copies are fully efficient; i.e., they are able to produce the proteins needed for their own transposition, and they can move and duplicate into the genome. Other copies are mutated. They may have lost their moving ability, their coding capacity, or both, thus becoming pseudogenes slowly eliminated from the genome through deletions and natural selection. Little is known about the dynamics of such mutant elements, particularly concerning their interactions with autonomous copies. To get a better understanding of the transposable elements' evolution after their initial invasion, we have designed a population genetics model of transposable elements dynamics including mutants or nonfunctional sequences. We have particularly focused on the case where these sequences are nonautonomous elements, known to be able to use the transposition machinery produced by the autonomous ones. The results show that such copies generally prevent the system from achieving a stable transposition–selection equilibrium and that nonautonomous elements can invade the system at the expense of autonomous ones. The resulting dynamics are mainly cyclic, which highlights the similarities existing between genomic selfish DNA sequences and host–parasite systems. PMID:16888345

  4. Statistical Mechanics of Population --- The Lattice Lotka-Volterra Model ---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuda, H.; Ogita, N.; Sasaki, A.; Sato, K.

    1992-12-01

    To derive the consequence of heritable traits of individual organisms upon the feature of their populations, the lattice Lotka-Volterra model is studied which is defined as a Markov process of the state of the lattice space. A lattice site is either vacant or occupied by an individual of a certain type or species. Transition rates of the process are given in terms of parameters representing the traits of an individual such as intrinsic birth and death and migration rate of each type. Density is a variable defined as a probability that a site is occupied by a certain type. Under a given state of a site the conditional probability of its nearest neighbor site being occupied by a certain type is termed environs density of the site. Mutual exclusion of individuals is already taken into account by the basic assumption of the lattice model. Other interaction between individuals can be taken into account by assuming that the actual birth and death and migration rates are dependent on the environs densities. Extending the notion of ordinary Malthusian parameters, we define Malthusians as dynamical variables specifying the time development of the densities. Conditions for the positive stationary densities and for the evolutional stability (ES) against the invasion of mutant types is given in terms of Malthusians. Using the pair approximation (PA), a simplest decoupling approximation to take account of spatial correlation, we obtain analytical results for stationary densities, and critical parameters for ES in the case of two types. Assuming that the death rate is dependent on the environs density, we derive conditions for the evolution of altruism. Comparing with computer simulation, we discuss the validity of PA and its improvement.

  5. Strong Spatial Influence on Colonization Rates in a Pioneer Zooplankton Metacommunity

    PubMed Central

    Frisch, Dagmar; Cottenie, Karl; Badosa, Anna; Green, Andy J.

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18–2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance. PMID:22792241

  6. The distribution and vertical flux of fecal pellets from large zooplankton in Monterey bay and coastal California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dagg, Michael J.; Jackson, George A.; Checkley, David M.

    2014-12-01

    We sampled zooplankton and fecal pellets in the upper 200 m of Monterey Bay and nearby coastal regions in California, USA. On several occasions, we observed high concentrations of large pellets that appeared to be produced during night-time by dielly migrating euphausiids. High concentrations of pellets were found in near-surface waters only when euphausiids co-occurred with high concentrations of large (>10 ?m) phytoplankton. Peak concentrations of pellets at mid-depth (100 or 150 m) during the day were consistent with the calculated sinking speeds of pellets produced near the surface at night. At these high flux locations (HI group), pellet concentrations declined below mid-depth. In contrast, at locations where the phytoplankton assemblage was dominated by small phytoplankton cells (<10 ?m), pellet production and flux were low (LO group) whether or not euphausiid populations were high. Protozooplankton concentrations did not affect this pattern. We concluded that the day and night differences in pellet concentration and flux in the HI profiles were mostly due to sinking of dielly-pulsed inputs in the surface layer, and that small zooplankton (Oithona, Oncaea), heterotrophic dinoflagellates, and bacterial activity probably caused some pellet degradation or consumption below 100 m. We estimated that consumption of sinking pellets by large copepods was insignificant. High fluxes of pellets were episodic because they required both high concentrations of large phytoplankton and large stocks of euphausiids. Under these conditions, flux events overwhelmed retention mechanisms, resulting in large exports of organic matter from the upper 200 m.

  7. MODELLING THE EFFECT OF HUMAN-CAUSED MORTALITY ON A LION SUB-POPULATION USING SPREADSHEETS

    E-print Network

    van Vuuren, Jan H.

    -caused mortality are available, the impact of current rates of human-caused mortality is uncertain. FemaleMODELLING THE EFFECT OF HUMAN-CAUSED MORTALITY ON A LION SUB-POPULATION USING SPREADSHEETS By Eric-population subjected to human-caused mortality under deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Population

  8. Population-based threshold models describe weed germination and emergence patterns across varying

    E-print Network

    Bradford, Kent

    Population-based threshold models describe weed germination and emergence patterns across varying them to predict emergence from field soil. 2. We combined hydrothermal time for germination, accounting population. In all populations, germination rates increased between 9Á5 and 31 °C, b was

  9. A Boundary Value Problem for Integrodifference Population Models with Cyclic Kernels

    E-print Network

    Jacobsen, Jon T.

    information [2]. In fact, extinction rates are projected to increase as the human population continues to grow-native species [2, 15]. How can we ensure that threatened populations are able to survive in a limited habitatA Boundary Value Problem for Integrodifference Population Models with Cyclic Kernels Jon Jacobsen

  10. Evaluation of methods for estimating population pharmacokinetic parameters II. Biexponential model and experimental pharmacokinetic data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lewis B. Sheiner; Stuart L. Beal

    1981-01-01

    Individual pharmacokinetic parameters quantify the pharmacokinetics of an individual, while population pharmacokinetic parameters quantify population mean kinetics, interindividual variability, and residual variability, including intraindividual variability and measurement error. Individual pharmacokinetics are estimated by fitting individual data to a pharmacokinetic model. Population pharmacokinetic parameters have been estimated either by fitting all individuals' data together as though there were no individual kinetic

  11. Evaluation of methods for estimating population pharmacokinetic parameters. III. Monoexponential model: Routine clinical pharmacokinetic data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Lewis B. Sheiner; Stuart L. Beal

    1983-01-01

    Individual pharmacokinetic parameters quantify the pharmacokinetics of an individual, while population pharmacokinetic parameters quantify population mean kinetics, interindividual kinetic variability, and residual variability, including intraindividual variability and measurement error. Individual pharmacokinetics are estimated by fitting a pharmacokinetic model to individual data. Population pharmacokinetic parameters have traditionally been estimated by doing this separately for each individual, and then combining the individual

  12. Modeling and Control of the Peregrine Falcon Population

    E-print Network

    Bogaerts, Steven

    to harvest these birds for sport. The US Fish and Wildlife Service currently allows minimal harvesting of the US Fish and Wildlife Service allowing up to 5% of the peregrine falcon population to be harvested that takes into account uncertainties in the population data while it analyzes the effect of harvesting

  13. Modeling the Sustainability of Walleye Populations in Northern Wisconsin Lakes

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Amy M. Schueller; Michael J. Hansen; Steven P. Newman

    2008-01-01

    Population sustainability of walleyes Sander vitreus in the face of angling and spearing fisheries has been a concern of fishery managers in northern Wisconsin since off-reservation tribal fishing rights were affirmed by federal court decisions. We evaluated sustainability of walleye populations across a range of densities that were subjected to various exploitation rates and allocations of angling and spearing harvest

  14. Zooplankton community analysis in the Changjiang River estuary by single-gene-targeted metagenomics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Fangping; Wang, Minxiao; Li, Chaolun; Sun, Song

    2014-07-01

    DNA barcoding provides accurate identification of zooplankton species through all life stages. Single-gene-targeted metagenomic analysis based on DNA barcode databases can facilitate longterm monitoring of zooplankton communities. With the help of the available zooplankton databases, the zooplankton community of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary was studied using a single-gene-targeted metagenomic method to estimate the species richness of this community. A total of 856 mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene sequences were determined. The environmental barcodes were clustered into 70 molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs). Forty-two MOTUs matched barcoded marine organisms with more than 90% similarity and were assigned to either the species (similarity>96%) or genus level (similarity<96%). Sibling species could also be distinguished. Many species that were overlooked by morphological methods were identified by molecular methods, especially gelatinous zooplankton and merozooplankton that were likely sampled at different life history phases. Zooplankton community structures differed significantly among all of the samples. The MOTU spatial distributions were influenced by the ecological habits of the corresponding species. In conclusion, single-gene-targeted metagenomic analysis is a useful tool for zooplankton studies, with which specimens from all life history stages can be identified quickly and effectively with a comprehensive database.

  15. Vertical distribution and diel patterns of zooplankton abundance and biomass at Conch Reef, Florida Keys (USA)

    PubMed Central

    Heidelberg, Karla B.; O'Neil, Keri L.; Bythell, John C.; Sebens, Kenneth P.

    2010-01-01

    Zooplankton play an important role in the trophic dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. Detailed vertical and temporal distribution and biomass of zooplankton were evaluated at four heights off the bottom and at six times throughout the diel cycle over a coral reef in the Florida Keys (USA). Zooplankton abundance averaged 4396 ± 1949 SD individuals m?3, but temporal and spatial distributions varied for individual zooplankton taxa by time of day and by height off the bottom. Copepods comprised 93–96% of the abundance in the samples. Taxon-based zooplankton CHN values paired with abundance data were used to estimate biomass. Average daily biomass ranged from 3.1 to 21.4 mg C m?3 and differed by both height off the bottom and by time of day. While copepods were the numerically dominant organisms, their contribution to biomass was only 35% of the total zooplankton biomass. Our findings provide important support for the new emerging paradigm of how zooplankton are distributed over reefs. PMID:20046854

  16. Vertical distribution and diel patterns of zooplankton abundance and biomass at Conch Reef, Florida Keys (USA).

    PubMed

    Heidelberg, Karla B; O'Neil, Keri L; Bythell, John C; Sebens, Kenneth P

    2010-01-01

    Zooplankton play an important role in the trophic dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. Detailed vertical and temporal distribution and biomass of zooplankton were evaluated at four heights off the bottom and at six times throughout the diel cycle over a coral reef in the Florida Keys (USA). Zooplankton abundance averaged 4396 +/- 1949 SD individuals m(-3), but temporal and spatial distributions varied for individual zooplankton taxa by time of day and by height off the bottom. Copepods comprised 93-96% of the abundance in the samples. Taxon-based zooplankton CHN values paired with abundance data were used to estimate biomass. Average daily biomass ranged from 3.1 to 21.4 mg C m(-3) and differed by both height off the bottom and by time of day. While copepods were the numerically dominant organisms, their contribution to biomass was only 35% of the total zooplankton biomass. Our findings provide important support for the new emerging paradigm of how zooplankton are distributed over reefs. PMID:20046854

  17. First evidence for zooplankton feeding sustaining key physiological processes in a scleractinian cold-water coral.

    PubMed

    Naumann, Malik S; Orejas, Covadonga; Wild, Christian; Ferrier-Pagès, Christine

    2011-11-01

    Scleractinian cold-water corals (CWC) represent key taxa controlling deep-sea reef ecosystem functioning by providing structurally complex habitats to a high associated biodiversity, and by fuelling biogeochemical cycles via the release of organic matter. Nevertheless, our current knowledge on basic CWC properties, such as feeding ecology and key physiological processes (i.e. respiration, calcification and organic matter release), is still very limited. Here, we show evidence for the trophic significance of zooplankton, essentially sustaining levels of the investigated key physiological processes in the cosmopolitan CWC Desmophyllum dianthus (Esper 1794). Our results from laboratory studies reveal that withdrawal (for up to 3 weeks) of zooplankton food (i.e. Artemia salina) caused a significant decline in respiration (51%) and calcification (69%) rates compared with zooplankton-fed specimens. Likewise, organic matter release, in terms of total organic carbon (TOC), decreased significantly and eventually indicated TOC net uptake after prolonged zooplankton exclusion. In fed corals, zooplankton provided 1.6 times the daily metabolic C demand, while TOC release represented 7% of zooplankton-derived organic C. These findings highlight zooplankton as a nutritional source for D. dianthus, importantly sustaining respiratory metabolism, growth and organic matter release, with further implications for the role of CWC as deep-sea reef ecosystem engineers. PMID:21993785

  18. Effect of Dreissena mussels on the distribution of zooplankton as exemplified by the Main Kakhovka Canal

    SciTech Connect

    Grigorovich, I.A.; Shevtsova, L.V. [National Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Kiev (Ukraine)

    1995-06-01

    In summer the abundance of zooplankton in the Main Kakhovka Canal varied in the range of 1,500-18,500 indiv.m{sup -3}, with a biomass of 15-240 mg m{sup -3}. From the upper reach of the canal to the end, the zooplankton become less diverse and there is a decrease in both abundance and biomass. In the initial sections of the canal, copepods predominated, owing to their considerable influxes from other sources, i.e., Kakhovka Reservoir. Whereas in the second half of the canal, the dominant complexes of zooplankton changed and consisted primarily of cladocerans and Dreissena veligers. With high abundance of Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas) and D. bugensis (Andrusov) (mean biomass was 4.2 kg m{sup -2}), with the maximum ca. 17.8 kg m{sup -2}, mussels had a significant effect on the spatial distribution of planktonic invertebrates. In different areas of the canal the measurable quantitive replenishment of zooplankton was proceeded by planktonic larvae of Dreissena. Being active filterers, Dreissena mollusks undermine food resources of filter-feeding zooplankton by accelerating sedimentation of suspended matter, including organic substances, by a factor of 1.4-3.0. Dreissena can control zooplankton density by consumption of some of the species. With predominating rotifers and juveniles cladocerans in the plankton, the total abundance of zooplankton influenced by Dreissena bugensis had decreased by 53% after 12 h, whereas the amount of dominant species, Euchlanis dilatata and Bosmina longirostris, had declined respectively by 92% and 64%. Dreissena individuals 14-18 mm long, are the predominant size group of mussels in the Main Kakhovka Canal and can filter off planktonic invertebrates with body lengths between 20 and 400 m. Zooplankton species of such size can pass through the bronchial siphon of Dreissena and so they are vulnerable to consumption by mussels. There is an inverse relationship between the biomass of zooplankton and the biomass of adult Dreissena mussels.

  19. Horizontal distribution of Fukushima-derived radiocesium in zooplankton in the northwestern Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitamura, M.; Kumamoto, Y.; Kawakami, H.; Cruz, E. C.; Fujikura, K.

    2013-08-01

    The magnitude of the 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and the ensuing tsunami on 11 March 2011, inflicted heavy damage on the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (FNPP1). Fission products were emitted, falling over a broad range in the Northern Hemisphere, and water contaminated with radionuclides leaked into the ocean. In this study, we described the horizontal distribution of the Fukushima-derived radiocesium in zooplankton and in seawater in the western North Pacific Ocean (500-2100 km from the FNPP1) 10 months after the accident. 134Cs and 137Cs were detected in zooplankton and seawater from all the stations. Because of its short half-life, the 134Cs detected in our samples could only be derived from the FNPP1 accident. The highest 137Cs activity in zooplankton was the same order of magnitude as it was one month after the accident, and average activity was one or two orders of magnitude higher than 137Cs activities observed before the accident around Japan. Horizontally, the radiocesium activity concentrations in zooplankton were high at around 25° N while those in surface seawater were high at around the transition area between the Kuroshio and the Oyashio currents (36-40° N). We observed subsurface radiocesium maxima in density range of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water and the occurrence of many diel vertical migratory zooplankton. These suggested that the high activity concentrations in the subtropical zooplankton at around 25° N were connected to the subsurface radiocesium and active vertical migration of zooplankton. However, the high activity concentrations of radiocesium in subsurface seawater did not necessarily correlate with the higher radiocesium activity in zooplankton. Activity concentrations of radiocesium in zooplankton might be influenced not only by the environmental radiocesium activity concentrations but also by other factors, which are still unknown.

  20. Trophic ecology and vertical patterns of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in zooplankton from oxygen minimum zone regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Rebecca L.; Wakeham, Stuart; McKinney, Rick; Wishner, Karen F.

    2014-08-01

    The unique physical and biogeochemical characteristics of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) influence plankton ecology, including zooplankton trophic webs. Using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, this study examined zooplankton trophic webs in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP) OMZ. ?13C values were used to indicate zooplankton food sources, and ?15N values were used to indicate zooplankton trophic position and nitrogen cycle pathways. Vertically stratified MOCNESS net tows collected zooplankton from 0 to 1000 m at two stations along a north-south transect in the ETNP during 2007 and 2008, the Tehuantepec Bowl and the Costa Rica Dome. Zooplankton samples were separated into four size fractions for stable isotope analyses. Particulate organic matter (POM), assumed to represent a primary food source for zooplankton, was collected with McLane large volume in situ pumps. The isotopic composition and trophic ecology of the ETNP zooplankton community had distinct spatial and vertical patterns influenced by OMZ structure. The most pronounced vertical isotope gradients occurred near the upper and lower OMZ oxyclines. Material with lower ?13C values was apparently produced in the upper oxycline, possibly by chemoautotrophic microbes, and was subsequently consumed by zooplankton. Between-station differences in ?15N values suggested that different nitrogen cycle processes were dominant at the two locations, which influenced the isotopic characteristics of the zooplankton community. A strong depth gradient in zooplankton ?15N values in the lower oxycline suggested an increase in trophic cycling just below the core of the OMZ. Shallow POM (0-110 m) was likely the most important food source for mixed layer, upper oxycline, and OMZ core zooplankton, while deep POM was an important food source for most lower oxycline zooplankton (except for samples dominated by the seasonally migrating copepod Eucalanus inermis). There was no consistent isotopic progression among the four zooplankton size classes for these bulk mixed assemblage samples, implying overlapping trophic webs within the total size range considered.

  1. A one-population Amari model with periodic microstructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svanstedt, Nils; Wyller, John; Malyutina, Elena

    2014-06-01

    We review the derivation of the homogenized one-population Amari equation by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity function. A key point in this derivation is Visintin's theorem for two-scale convergence of convolution integrals. We construct single bump solutions of the resulting homogenized equation using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable and the firing rate function is modelled as a unit step function. The parameter measuring the degree of heterogeneity plays the role of a control parameter. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. A framework for analysing the stability of these structures is formulated. This framework is based on spectral theory for Hilbert-Schmidt integral operators and it deforms to the standard Evans function approach for the translational invariant case in the limit of no heterogeneity. The upper and lower bounds of the growth/decay rates of the perturbations imposed on the bump states can be expressed in terms of the operator norm of the actual Hilbert-Schmidt operator. Intervals for which the pinning function is increasing correspond to unstable bumps, while complementary intervals where the pinning function decreases correspond to stable bumps, just as in the translational invariant case. Examples showing the properties of the bumps are discussed in detail when the connectivity kernels are given in terms of an exponential decaying function, a wizard hat function and a damped oscillating function.

  2. Development of an integrated population pharmacokinetic model for oral levetiracetam in populations of various ages and ethnicities.

    PubMed

    Toublanc, Nathalie; Lacroix, Brigitte D; Yamamoto, Junichi

    2014-01-01

      Levetiracetam [E Keppra(®)] is a second generation antiepileptic drug for different types of epilepsy in adults and children ?1 month. The objective is to develop a population pharmacokinetic model to describe the pharmacokinetics of levetiracetam in Japanese children and adults as well as North American children, the purpose being to explore potential dosing recommendations in Japanese children. Levetiracetam plasma concentration-time data were obtained from Japanese adult and pediatric clinical studies. The data were analyzed through non-linear mixed effects modelling. The model was used to perform simulations and compare the exposure in Japanese children and adults. It was subsequently extended to North American children through an external validation. A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and first-order elimination adequately described the data. The exposure parameters determined based on the simulations in children were well within the adult range. The external validation against historical data from North American children was successful. The integrated population pharmacokinetic model provided a good description of the data, confirming the similarity of levetiracetam pharmacokinetics in these various populations. In Japanese children, a target dose of 10 to 30 mg/kg twice daily ensures the same exposure as the recommended dose in Japanese adults of 500 to 1,500 mg twice daily. PMID:23877106

  3. Large-scale climate control of zooplankton transport and biogeography in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiba, Sanae; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Davis, Andrew; Keister, Julie E.; Taguchi, Bunmei; Sasai, Yoshikazu; Sugisaki, Hiroya

    2013-10-01

    We studied decadal-scale climate control of zooplankton biogeography driven by Kuroshio Extension (KE) dynamics using long-term zooplankton data and an advection model driven with currents from the Earth Simulator eddy-resolving ocean model. Passive tracer model experiments indicated that warm-water species transported from the south were retained in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region during years with a weak KE. A 2.5 year lag in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index was significantly correlated with the KE strength and with warm-water species abundance. These findings indicate that climate signals from the central and eastern North Pacific propagated westward, influencing not only transport in the KOE region but also regional ecosystem variability. Because the NPGO controls important aspects of the transport dynamics and ecosystem variability in the eastern North Pacific, this study provides additional evidence that large-scale climate patterns drive coherent changes in ecosystems throughout the North Pacific by impacting regional-scale transport dynamics.

  4. Modelling rural population change in the Cilento region of southern Italy.

    PubMed

    White, P E

    1985-10-01

    The relevance of established models of rural population change to the situation in the Cilento region of southern Italy is considered. The author notes that in this region, tourism seems to be the major factor explaining rural population change between 1961 and 1971. The need for a family of models to explain rural population change while taking into account a variety of cultural and developmental factors is suggested. PMID:12340390

  5. Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tom Wilson; Martin Bell

    2004-01-01

    While population forecasters place considerable emphasis on the selection of appropriate migration assumptions, surprisingly\\u000a little attention has been given to the effects on projection outcomes of the way internal migration is handled within population\\u000a projection models. This paper compares population projections for Australia's states and territories prepared using ten different\\u000a internal migration models but with identical assumptions for fertility, mortality

  6. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    Microsoft Academic Search

    PHILLIP J. VAN MANTGEM; NATHAN L. STEPHENSON

    2005-01-01

    Summary 1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval

  7. A Non-phenomenological Model of Competition and Cooperation to Explain Population Growth Behaviors.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L

    2015-03-01

    This paper is an extension of a previous work which proposes a non-phenomenological model of population growth that is based on the interactions among the individuals of a population. In addition to what had already been studied-that the individuals interact competitively-in the present work it is also considered that the individuals interact cooperatively. As a consequence of this new consideration, a richer dynamics is observed. For instance, besides getting the population models already reached from the original version of the model (as the Malthus, Verhulst, Gompertz, Richards, Bertalanffy and power-law growth models), the new formulation also reaches the von Foerster growth model and also a regime of divergence of the population at a finite time. An agent-based model is also presented in order to give support to the analytical results. Moreover, this new approach of the model explains the Allee effect as an emergent behavior of the cooperative and competitive interactions among the individuals. The Allee effect is the characteristic of some populations of increasing the population growth rate in a small-sized population. Whereas the models presented in the literature explain the Allee effect with phenomenological ideas, the model presented here explains this effect by the interactions between the individuals. The model is tested with empirical data to justify its formulation. Another interesting macroscopic emergent behavior from the model proposed is the observation of a regime of population divergence at a finite time. It is interesting that this characteristic is observed in humanity's global population growth. It is shown that in a regime of cooperation, the model fits very well to the human population growth data from 1000 AD to nowadays. PMID:25724311

  8. Swimming against the flow: a mechanism of zooplankton aggregation.

    PubMed

    Genin, Amatzia; Jaffe, Jules S; Reef, Ruth; Richter, Claudio; Franks, Peter J S

    2005-05-01

    Zooplankton reside in a constantly flowing environment. However, information about their response to ambient flow has remained elusive, because of the difficulties of following the individual motions of these minute, nearly transparent animals in the ocean. Using a three-dimensional acoustic imaging system, we tracked >375,000 zooplankters at two coastal sites in the Red Sea. Resolution of their motion from that of the water showed that the animals effectively maintained their depth by swimming against upwelling and downwelling currents moving at rates of up to tens of body lengths per second, causing their accumulation at frontal zones. This mechanism explains how oceanic fronts become major feeding grounds for predators and targets for fishermen. PMID:15879218

  9. Effects of zooplankton herbivory on biomarker proxy records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grice, Kliti; Klein Breteler, Wim C. M.; Schouten, Stefan; Grossi, Vincent; de Leeuw, Jan W.; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.

    1998-12-01

    The stable carbon isotopic compositions of cholesterol, generally the most dominant sterol in the copepod Temora, bears the ?13C "signature" of its dietary precursor sterol when fed on Isochrysis galbana and Rhodomonas sp. The ?13C of cholesterol in the faecal pellets released from Temora longicornis fed on Rhodomonas sp. is identical to the ?13C of the sterols in the diet, indicating that no significant carbon isotopic fractionation effects occur when the copepod modifies eukaryotic precursor sterols to cholesterol. Furthermore, the ratio of long-chain alkenones and their stable carbon isotopic compositions in I. galbana were identical to those egested in faecal material. Thus Zooplankton herbivory does not invalidate the use of these alkenones as a proxy for sea surface temperature and pCO2.

  10. Biotic relations affecting species structure in zooplankton communities

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Vitaliy P. Semenchenko; Vladimir I. Razlutskij; Irina Yu. Feniova; Denis N. Aibulatov

    2007-01-01

    Mathematical modelling and laboratory experiments were used to study how exploitative competition and predation influence\\u000a the species structure in cladoceran community. For five species of Cladocera (Sida crystallina, Daphnia magna, Simocephalus vetulus, Daphnia longispina, and Diaphanosoma brachyurum), representing a gradient of body size, population characteristics were described as functions of food concentration. Abundance\\u000a dynamics were simulated in mixed species cultures

  11. Modeling and responding to pandemic influenza : importance of population distributional attributes and non-pharmaceutical interventions

    E-print Network

    Nigmatulina, Karima Robert

    2009-01-01

    After reviewing prevalent approaches to the modeling pandemic influenza transmission, we present a simple distributional model that captures the most significant population attributes that alter the dynamics of the outbreak. ...

  12. Applying the multivariate time-rescaling theorem to neural population models

    E-print Network

    Gerhard, Felipe

    Statistical models of neural activity are integral to modern neuroscience. Recently interest has grown in modeling the spiking activity of populations of simultaneously recorded neurons to study the effects of correlations ...

  13. CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

  14. A PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL OF FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ITS APPLICATION IN IMPINGEMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report gives results of a study to: (1) develop a mathematical model describing fish populations as a function of life process dynamics and facilities that impose additional mortality on fish populations; and (2) improve objective impingement impact prediction. The model acco...

  15. Developing population models for guiding reintroductions of extirpated bird species back to the New Zealand mainland

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Doug P. Armstrong; R. Scott Davidson

    2006-01-01

    Population models are useful tools to guide management as they allow us to project growth and persistence of wildlife populations under different scenarios. Nevertheless, good data are needed to produce reliable models, and this requirement is problematic in some situations. North Island saddlebacks (Philesturnus rufusater) were reintroduced to Boundary Stream Mainland Island in September 2004, and this was the first

  16. THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVIY OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO REPRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In recent years there has been an increasing interest in using population models in environmental assessments. Matrix population models represent a valuable tool for extrapolating from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to effects on finite populati...

  17. A PROBABILISTIC POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PM10 AND PM 2.5

    EPA Science Inventory

    A first generation probabilistic population exposure model for Particulate Matter (PM), specifically for predicting PM10, and PM2.5, exposures of an urban, population has been developed. This model is intended to be used to predict exposure (magnitude, frequency, and duration) ...

  18. Semigroup analysis of a model of structured populations with distributed states-at-birth

    Microsoft Academic Search

    József Z. Farkas

    Motivated by the modelling of structured parasite populations in aquaculture we consider a class of physiologically structured population models, a first order nonlinear partial differential equation, with distributed states-at-birth. We establish conditions which guarantee that the linearised system is governed by a positive quasicontraction semigroup. We also show that the governing linear semigroup is eventually compact hence growth properties of

  19. Numerical modelling of label-structured cell population growth using CFSE distribution data

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Tatyana Luzyanina; Dirk Roose; Tim Schenkel; Martina Sester; Stephan Ehl; Andreas Meyerhans; Gennady Bocharov

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The flow cytometry analysis of CFSE-labelled cells is currently one of the most informative experimental techniques for studying cell proliferation in immunology. The quantitative interpretation and understanding of such heterogenous cell population data requires the development of distributed parameter mathematical models and computational techniques for data assimilation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The mathematical modelling of label-structured cell population dynamics leads

  20. Eco-Evo PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

    EPA Science Inventory

    We synthesize how advances in computational methods and population genomics can be combined within an Ecological-Evolutionary (Eco-Evo) PVA model. Eco-Evo PVA models are powerful new tools for understanding the influence of evolutionary processes on plant and animal population pe...

  1. Nutrients, Recycling, and Biological Populations in Upwelling Ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Whitledge, T.E.

    1980-01-01

    Nutrient recycling has been studied in the upwelling areas of Baja California, Northwest Africa, and Peru. Regeneration by biological populations in these areas contributes significant quantities of recycled nitrogen which is utilized in productivity processes. Each area has a different combination of organisms which leads to differences in the relative contributions of zooplankton, nekton, or benthos to the nutrient cycles. Comparisons of ammonium regeneration rates of zooplankton and nekton-micronekton populations in the three upwelling areas show that zooplankton recycle relatively less nitrogen in the Baja California and Peru systems than nekton. In the Northwest Africa upwelling region, however, zooplankton, fish, and benthic inputs are all substantial. In recent years the Peruvian upwelling system has been altered with the decline of the anchoveta population and an increase in the importance of zooplankton in nutrient recycling. The distribution of recycled nitrogen (ammonium and urea) in transects across the shelf at 10°S and 15°S indicates that regeneration is relatively more important at 10°S in the region of the wide shelf. In both areas the distribution of ammonium and urea are not entirely coincident thereby indicating differences in their production and/or utilization.

  2. Differences in the sterol composition of dominant Antarctic zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Mühlebach, A; Albers, C; Kattner, G

    1999-01-01

    The composition of free sterols was determined in Antarctic zooplankton species with various feeding behaviors. In the Southern Ocean, the dominant calanoid copepods Calanoides acutus, Calanus propinquus, Metridia gerlachei, and Euchaeta antarctica were investigated during different seasons and compared with the euphausiids Euphausia superba, E. crystallorophias, and Thysanoessa macrura. In addition, the Arctic copepods Calanus hyperboreus, C. glacialis, and C. finmarchicus were studied for comparison. Analyses were performed using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. The zooplankton species exhibited a simple sterol content of up to six sterols. In the copepods, cholest-5-en-3beta-ol (22.1 to 60.5%, range of sample means), cholesta-5,24-dien-3beta-ol (22.3 to 45.2%), and cholesta-5,22E-dien-3beta-ol (4.3 to 33.4%) contributed most, while in euphausiids the sterol composition was less complex with cholest-5-en-3beta-ol always accounting for more than 75% of the total. Although sterols are membrane constituents and are expected not to vary considerably, differences in the abundance of sterols were observed between the species and the seasons. In herbivorous copepods, cholesta-5,24-dien-3beta-ol increased by a factor of 1.5 to about 45% during the main feeding period in summer; this sterol is a metabolic precursor of cholest-5-en-3beta-ol in the process of the dealkylation of dietary C-24 alkylated phytosterols. Cholest-5-en-3beta-ol decreased by the same proportion. Omnivorous and carnivorous copepods showed average levels of cholesta-5,24-dien-3beta-ol below 25%. These changes in sterol composition between copepod species seem to reflect their different feeding modes. PMID:10188596

  3. Importance of Arctic zooplankton seasonal migrations for ?-hexachlorocyclohexane bioaccumulation dynamics.

    PubMed

    Pu?ko, Monika; Walkusz, W; Macdonald, R W; Barber, D G; Fuchs, C; Stern, G A

    2013-05-01

    Like most zooplankton, Calanus hyperboreus undergoes seasonal migration spending late spring and summer grazing at the surface and the rest of the year in diapause at depth. As a result, in the Arctic Ocean this copepod resides for part of the year in the hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) enriched surface water and for part of the year at depth where HCH undergoes significant microbial degradation resulting in far lower concentrations (~3 times for ?-HCH). We collected C. hyperboreus from summer and winter from the Amundsen Gulf and measured their ?-HCH concentrations, enantiomeric compositions, and bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) to investigate how this copepod responds to the change in exposure to ?-HCH. C. hyperboreus collected in winter were also cultured for 5 weeks under surface water conditions without feeding to investigate bioconcentration dynamics following spring ascent. Concentration of ?-HCH was 2-3 times higher in individuals from the summer than those from the winter. Log BAF from the summer (feeding period) does not exceed log BCF (bioconcentration factor) from the culturing experiment (no feeding) suggesting that ?-HCH concentration in C. hyperboreus is maintained through equilibration rather than feeding. After the spring ascent from deep waters, C. hyperboreus approach equilibrium partitioning with the higher surface water concentrations of ?-HCH within 3-4 weeks with about 60% of bioconcentration taking place in the first week. The C. hyperboreus ?-HCH chiral signature also reflects ambient seawater and can therefore be used as a determinant of residence depth. Even though a single cycle of seasonal migration does not result in a significant redistribution of ?-HCH in the water column, this process could have a significant cumulative effect over longer time scales with particular local importance where the zooplankton biomass is high and the ocean depth is great enough to provide substantial vertical concentration gradients. PMID:23570325

  4. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

  5. An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pine, William Pine, III; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

    2013-01-01

    We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

  6. Using modeling to improve monitoring of structured populations: are we collecting the right data?

    PubMed

    Katzner, Todd; Milner-Gulland, E J; Bragin, Evgeny

    2007-02-01

    Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles (Aquila heliaca) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest--population size (N) and population growth (lambda). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats. PMID:17298530

  7. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  8. A toy model for hostility between two populations in dependency on their internal frustration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wieder, Thomas

    2014-10-01

    Hostility between two populations n and m is described in terms of a first-order differential equation system for the population sizes n(t) and m(t) over time t. Each population is subdivided into two subpopulations 'Doves' and 'Hawks'. Hawks represent the strategy aggression against the other population. The number of hawks which actually exert aggression depends on the overall frustration within their population. Conversely, aggression causes the conversion from doves to hawks in the attacked population. Thus, a system of flows among the subpopulation is established. The actual behaviour of n(t) and m(t) over time t depends on the coefficients chosen for the differential system and in particular on the temporal development of the frustration parameters. No calculation or simulation of actual population sizes is intended. The only goal of the paper is to establish a model which describes an never ending conflict between both populations caused by internal frustrations.

  9. Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2011-01-01

    Landscape-based population models are potentially valuable tools in facilitating conservation planning and actions at large scales. However, such models have rarely been applied at ecoregional scales. We extended landscape-based population models to ecoregional scales for three species of concern in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region and compared model projections against long-term trend data from the North American Breeding Bird

  10. Modelling the Dynamics of Feral Alfalfa Populations and Its Management Implications

    PubMed Central

    Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V.; Begg, Graham S.; Gulden, Robert H.; Van Acker, Rene C.

    2012-01-01

    Background Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. Methodology/Principal Findings We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. Conclusions/Significance Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics. PMID:22768079

  11. The effect of heterocope predation on zooplankton communities in arctic ponds

    E-print Network

    O'Brien, W. John; Luecke, C.

    1983-03-01

    The influence of Heterocope septentrionalis, a predacious calanoid copepod, on five species of artic pond zooplankton is investigated. Prey species coexisting with Heterocope are relatively invulnerable to predation, but ...

  12. Distribution, patchiness, and behavior of Antarctic zooplankton, assessed using multi-frequency acoustic techniques

    E-print Network

    Lawson, Gareth L

    2006-01-01

    The physical and biological forces that drive zooplankton distribution and patchiness in an antarctic continental shelf region were examined, with particular emphasis on the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba. This was ...

  13. Evaluation of the zooplankton community of Livingston Reservoir, Texas, as related to paddlefish food resources

    E-print Network

    Moore, Casey Kenneth

    1993-01-01

    rotifers and copepod nauplii as efficiently as they do larger copepods and cladocerans. Overall zooplankton abundances were greater than those reported for other Texas reservoirs, but the community was dominated in terms of abundance and biomass by small...

  14. Two populations and models of gamma ray bursts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Katz, J. I.

    1993-01-01

    Gamma-ray burst statistics are best explained by a source population at cosmological distances, while spectroscopy and intensity histories of some individual bursts imply an origin on Galactic neutron stars. To resolve this inconsistency I suggest the presence of two populations, one at cosmological distances and the other Galactic. I build on ideas of Shemi and Piran (1990) and of Rees and Mesozaros (1992) involving the interaction of fireball debris with surrounding clouds to explain the observed intensity histories in bursts at cosmological distances. The distances to the Galactic population are undetermined because they are too few to affect the statistics of intensity and direction; I explain them as resulting from magnetic reconnection in neutron star magnetospheres. An appendix describes the late evolution of the debris as a relativistic blast wave.

  15. Heuristic Modeling of Carcinogenesis for the Population with Dichotomous Susceptibility to Cancer: A Pancreatic Cancer Example

    PubMed Central

    Mdzinarishvili, Tengiz; Sherman, Simon

    2014-01-01

    At present, carcinogenic models imply that all individuals in a population are susceptible to cancer. These models either ignore a fall of the cancer incidence rate at old ages, or use some poorly identifiable parameters for its accounting. In this work, a new heuristic model is proposed. The model assumes that, in a population, only a small fraction (pool) of individuals is susceptible to cancer and decomposes the problem of the carcinogenic modeling on two sequentially solvable problems: (i) determination of the age-specific hazard rate in individuals susceptible to cancer (individual hazard rate) from the observed hazard rate in the population (population hazard rate); and (ii) modelling of the individual hazard rate by a chosen “up” of the theoretical hazard function describing cancer occurrence in individuals in time (age). The model considers carcinogenesis as a failure of individuals susceptible to cancer to resist cancer occurrence in aging and uses, as the theoretical hazard function, the three-parameter Weibull hazard function, often utilized in a failure analysis. The parameters of this function, providing the best fit of the modeled and observed individual hazard rates (determined from the population hazard rates), are the outcomes of the modeling. The model was applied to the pancreatic cancer data. It was shown that, in the populations stratified by gender, race and the geographic area of living, the modeled and observed population hazard rates of pancreatic cancer occurrence have similar turnovers at old ages. The sizes of the pools of individuals susceptible to this cancer: (i) depend on gender, race and the geographic area of living; (ii) proportionally influence the corresponding population hazard rates; and (iii) do not influence the individual hazard rates. The model should be further tested using data on other types of cancer and for the populations stratified by different categorical variables. PMID:24932779

  16. F-IF A-SSE Modeling London's Population

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    This is a task from the Illustrative Mathematics website that is one part of a complete illustration of the standard to which it is aligned. Each task has at least one solution and some commentary that addresses important asects of the task and its potential use. Here are the first few lines of the commentary for this task: The table below shows historical estimates for the population of London. Year18011821 18411861 18811901 1921 1939 1961 London population 1,100,000 1,60...

  17. MULTIPLE STRESSOR EFFECTS OF HERBICIDE, PH, AND FOOD ON WETLAND ZOOPLANKTON AND A LARVAL AMPHIBIAN

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Celia Y.; Hathaway, Kevin M.; Thompson, Dean G.; Folt, Carol L.

    2011-01-01

    Interactions of herbicides and natural environmental stressors such as pH and food availability are poorly understood. We tested a chemical formulation of triclopyr (Release®) at environmentally relevant test concentrations (0.25 and 0.50 mg/L) in combination with two levels of pH (pH 5.5 and 7.5), and two levels of food availability (high and low). Population level effects of each stressor alone and in combination with the others were investigated using Simocephalus vetulus, a zooplankton species, and Rana pipiens tadpoles (Gosner stage 25), both common to forest ponds and wetlands. Herbicide treatments resulted in significant decreases in survival of both test species as well as reproduction and development time for Simocephalus vetulus at levels 5–10× below predicted worst case environmental concentrations (2.6 mg/L). This laboratory study demonstrates a probable risk of toxic effects of Release® herbicide which may be significantly increased by low food availability and by low pH at environmentally relevant concentrations. PMID:17904219

  18. Ammonia excretion by zooplankton and its significance to primary productivity during summer

    Microsoft Academic Search

    M. Jawed

    1973-01-01

    Excretion rates of ammonia have been determined for zooplankton off the coasts of Washington and Oregon (USA). Rates varied from 0.16 to 0.60 µg-at NH4+-N\\/mg dry weight\\/day for most planktonic animals, and from 0.02 to 0.06 for jellyfishes. Ammonia concentration in seawater was low in offshore regions. Ammonia released by zooplankton was studied in relation to primary productivity during summer.

  19. Predicting zooplankton response to environmental changes in a temperate estuarine ecosystem

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Sónia Cotrim Marques; Ulisses Miranda Azeiteiro; Sérgio Miguel Leandro; Henrique Queiroga; Ana Lígia Primo; Filipe Martinho; Ivan Viegas; Miguel Ângelo Pardal

    2008-01-01

    A novel strategy that allows to predict the responses of zooplanktonic species to environmental conditions in an estuarine\\u000a temperate ecosystem (Mondego estuary) is presented. It uses 12 indicator species from the zooplanktonic Mondego database (102\\u000a species) that are common members of the different habitats, characterized by their specific hydrological conditions. Indicator-species\\u000a analysis (ISA) was used to define and describe which

  20. Structure and Function of the Zooplankton Community of Mirror Lake, New Hampshire

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Joseph C. Makarewicz; Gene E. Likens

    1979-01-01

    An intensive study of the zooplankton community of Mirror Lake, New Hampshire, was undertaken over a 3-yr period. Our objectives in the lake study have included measurements of a number of attributes of the zooplankton community that integrate structure and function at the ecosystem level; among these are dispersion, biomass, productivity, respiration, and nutrient cycling.\\u000aEight species of rotifers and

  1. Population dynamics of species-rich ecosystems: the mixture of matrix population models approach

    E-print Network

    Rossi, Vivien

    the method to a data set from a tropical rain forest in French Guiana. The mixture matrix model classified, clustering, mixture models, reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, tropical rain forests, species capture­ recapture methods (Besbeas et al. 2002). In species-rich ecosystems like tropical rain forests

  2. A model of the trapped electron population for solar minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Teague, M. J.; Vette, J. I.

    1974-01-01

    A model is presented of the trapped electron environment of solar minimum conditions. Solar maximum models have been presented for the inner radiation zone (AE-5 1967), and for the outer radiation zone (AE-4 1967). The present solar minimum model consists of an inner zone model (AE-5 1975 Projected) with an epoch of 1975, and an outer zone model with an epoch of 1964. With only minor modifications this latter model is identical to the AE-4 1964 model presented previous. The model, however, has not previously been issued in computer form. AE-4 1964 is based upon satellite data, while the inner zone solar minimum model AE-5 1975 Projected consists entirely of extrapolations from AE-5 1967. While the two components of the solar minimum model have epochs 11 years part, it is assumed that any differences between the successive solar minima are smaller than the model error, and the complete model is associated with an epoch of 1975.

  3. Modeling ruffed grouse populations in the central and southern Appalachians

    Microsoft Academic Search

    John Michael Tirpak

    2005-01-01

    From 1995–2002, the Appalachian Cooperative Grouse Research Project conducted a radiotelemetry study of ruffed grouse ( Bonasa umbellus) on 7 study areas in 5 states—Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Based on this data, grouse populations were declining on all sites. However, declines were steeper than trends based on either Breeding Bird Survey or Christmas Bird Count data.

  4. TOXICANT-INDUCED MORTALITY IN MODELS OF DAPHNIA POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method to determine the mortality effects of a hydrophobic chemical on a population is proposed. he ecotoxicological protocol is based on individual organism response and is derived from the static theory of "survival of the fattest." his study, focusing on effects of mortality...

  5. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This task will address EPA's need to better understand the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants for the purpose of assessing what populations are at risk for adverse health outcomes due to air pollutant exposures. To improve our understanding of exposures to air po...

  6. Modeling tradeoffs in avian life history traits and consequences for population growth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.E.; Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    Variation in population dynamics is inherently related to life history characteristics of species, which vary markedly even within phylogenetic groups such as passerine birds. We computed the finite rate of population change (??) from a matrix projection model and from mark-recapture observations for 23 bird species breeding in northern Arizona. We used sensitivity analyses and a simulation model to separate contributions of different life history traits to population growth rate. In particular we focused on contrasting effects of components of reproduction (nest success, clutch size, number of clutches, and juvenile survival) versus adult survival on ??. We explored how changes in nest success or adult survival coupled to costs in other life history parameters affected ?? over a life history gradient provided by our 23 Arizona species, as well as a broader sample of 121 North American passerine species. We further examined these effects for more than 200 passeriform and piciform populations breeding across North America. Model simulations indicate nest success and juvenile survival exert the largest effects on population growth in species with moderate to high reproductive output, whereas adult survival contributed more to population growth in long-lived species. Our simulations suggest that monitoring breeding success in populations across a broad geographic area provides an important index for identifying neotropical migratory populations at risk of serious population declines and a potential method for identifying large-scale mechanisms regulating population dynamics. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Lake Ontario zooplankton in 2003 and 2008: community changes and vertical redistribution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rudstam, Lars G.; Holeck, Kristen T.; Bowen, Kelly L.; Watkins, James M.; Weidel, Brian C.; Luckey, Frederick J.

    2014-01-01

    Lake-wide zooplankton surveys are critical for documenting and understanding food web responses to ecosystem change. Surveys in 2003 and 2008 during the binational intensive field year in Lake Ontario found that offshore epilimnetic crustacean zooplankton declined by a factor of 12 (density) and factor of 5 (biomass) in the summer with smaller declines in the fall. These declines coincided with an increase in abundance of Bythotrephes and are likely the result of direct predation by, or behavioral responses to this invasive invertebrate predator. Whole water column zooplankton density also declined from 2003 to 2008 in the summer and fall (factor of 4), but biomass only declined in the fall (factor of 2). The decline in biomass was less than the decline in density because the average size of individual zooplankton increased. This was due to changes in the zooplankton community composition from a cyclopoid/bosminid dominated community in 2003 to a calanoid dominated community in 2008. The increase in calanoid copepods was primarily due to the larger species Limnocalanus macrurus and Leptodiaptomus sicilis. These coldwater species were found in and below the thermocline associated with a deep chlorophyll layer. In 2008, most of the zooplankton biomass resided in or below the thermocline during the day. Increased importance of copepods in deeper, colder water may favor cisco and rainbow smelt over alewife because these species are better adapted to cold temperatures than Alewife.

  8. Examining shifts in zooplankton community as a response of environmental change in Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghadouani, Anas; Mines, Conor; Legendre, Pierre; Yan, Norman

    2014-05-01

    We examined 20 years of zooplankton samples from Harp Lake for shifts in zooplankton variability following invasion by zooplankton predator Bythotrephes longimanus, using organism body size—as measured at high resolution by Laser Optical Plankton Counter (LOPC)—as the primary metric of investigation. A period of transitory high variability in the 2yr post-invasion was observed for both body size compositional variability and aggregate variability metrics, with both measures of variability shifting from low or intermediate to high variability immediately following invasion, before shifting again to intermediate variability, 2 yr post-invasion. Aggregate and compositional variability dynamics were also considered in combination over the study period, revealing that the period of transitory high variability coincided with a shift from a community-wide stasis variability pattern to one of asynchrony, before a shift back to stasis 2 yr post-invasion. These dynamics were related to changes in the significant zooplankton species within the Harp Lake community over the pre- and post- invasion periods, and are likely to be indicative of changes in the stability in the zooplankton community following invasion by Bythotrephes. The dual consideration of aggregate and compositional variability as measured by LOPC was found to provide a valuable means to assess the ecological effects of biological invasion on zooplankton communities as a whole, extending our knowledge of the effects of invasion beyond that already revealed through more traditional taxonomic investigation.

  9. Responses of Phyto- and Zooplankton Communities to Prymnesium polylepis (Prymnesiales) Bloom in the Baltic Sea

    PubMed Central

    Gorokhova, Elena; Hajdu, Susanna; Larsson, Ulf

    2014-01-01

    A large bloom of Prymnesium polylepis occurred in the Baltic Sea during the winter 2007 – spring 2008. Based on numerous reports of strong allelopathic effects on phytoplankton exerted by P. polylepis and its toxicity to grazers, we hypothesized that during this period negative correlations will be observed between P. polylepis and (1) main phytoplankton groups contributing to the spring bloom (i.e., diatoms and dinoflagellates), and (2) zooplankton growth and abundance. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed inter-annual variability in phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics as well as growth indices (RNA?DNA ratio) in dominant zooplankton in relation to the Prymnesium abundance and biomass. Contrary to the hypothesized relationships, no measurable negative responses to P. polylepis were observed for either the total phytoplankton stocks or the zooplankton community. The only negative response, possibly associated with P. polylepis occurrence, was significantly lower abundance of dinoflagellates both during and after the bloom in 2008. Moreover, contrary to the expected negative effects, there were significantly higher total phytoplankton abundance as well as significantly higher winter abundance and winter-spring RNA?DNA ratio in dominant zooplankton species in 2008, indicating that P. polylepis bloom coincided with favourable feeding conditions for zooplankton. Thus, primary consumers, and consequently also zooplanktivores (e.g., larval fish and mysids), may benefit from haptophyte blooms, particularly in winter, when phytoplankton is scarce. PMID:25393031

  10. Stellar Population Models and Individual Element Abundances I: Sensitivity of Stellar Evolution Models

    E-print Network

    A. Dotter; B. Chaboyer; J. W. Ferguson; H. -c. Lee; G. Worthey; E. Baron; D. Jevremovic

    2007-06-06

    Integrated light from distant galaxies is often compared to stellar population models via the equivalent widths of spectral features--spectral indices--whose strengths rely on the abundances of one or more elements. Such comparisons hinge not only on the overall metal abundance but also on relative abundances. Studies have examined the influence of individual elements on synthetic spectra but little has been done to address similar issues in the stellar evolution models that underlie most stellar population models. Stellar evolution models will primarily be influenced by changes in opacities. In order to explore this issue in detail, twelve sets of stellar evolution tracks and isochrones have been created at constant heavy element mass fraction Z that self-consistently account for varying heavy element mixtures. These sets include scaled-solar, alpha-enhanced, and individual cases where the elements C, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, Ca, Ti, and Fe have been enhanced above their scaled-solar values. The variations that arise between scaled-solar and the other cases are examined with respect to the H-R diagram and main sequence lifetimes.

  11. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  12. Are the numbers adding up? Exploiting discrepancies among complementary population models

    PubMed Central

    Stenglein, Jennifer L; Zhu, Jun; Clayton, Murray K; Van Deelen, Timothy R

    2015-01-01

    Large carnivores are difficult to monitor because they tend to be sparsely distributed, sensitive to human activity, and associated with complex life histories. Consequently, understanding population trend and viability requires conservationists to cope with uncertainty and bias in population data. Joint analysis of combined data sets using multiple models (i.e., integrated population model) can improve inference about mechanisms (e.g., habitat heterogeneity and food distribution) affecting population dynamics. However, unobserved or unobservable processes can also introduce bias and can be difficult to quantify. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for inference on an integrated population model that reconciles annual population counts with recruitment and survival data (i.e., demographic processes). Our modeling framework is flexible and enables a realistic form of population dynamics by fitting separate density-dependent responses for each demographic process. Discrepancies estimated from shared parameters among different model components represent unobserved additions (i.e., recruitment or immigration) or removals (i.e., death or emigration) when annual population counts are reliable. In a case study of gray wolves in Wisconsin (1980–2011), concordant with policy changes, we estimated that a discrepancy of 0% (1980–1995), ?2% (1996–2002), and 4% (2003–2011) in the annual mortality rate was needed to explain annual growth rate. Additional mortality in 2003–2011 may reflect density-dependent mechanisms, changes in illegal killing with shifts in wolf management, and nonindependent censoring in survival data. Integrated population models provide insights into unobserved or unobservable processes by quantifying discrepancies among data sets. Our modeling approach is generalizable to many population analysis needs and allows for identifying dynamic differences due to external drivers, such as management or policy changes. PMID:25691964

  13. Are the numbers adding up? Exploiting discrepancies among complementary population models.

    PubMed

    Stenglein, Jennifer L; Zhu, Jun; Clayton, Murray K; Van Deelen, Timothy R

    2015-01-01

    Large carnivores are difficult to monitor because they tend to be sparsely distributed, sensitive to human activity, and associated with complex life histories. Consequently, understanding population trend and viability requires conservationists to cope with uncertainty and bias in population data. Joint analysis of combined data sets using multiple models (i.e., integrated population model) can improve inference about mechanisms (e.g., habitat heterogeneity and food distribution) affecting population dynamics. However, unobserved or unobservable processes can also introduce bias and can be difficult to quantify. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach for inference on an integrated population model that reconciles annual population counts with recruitment and survival data (i.e., demographic processes). Our modeling framework is flexible and enables a realistic form of population dynamics by fitting separate density-dependent responses for each demographic process. Discrepancies estimated from shared parameters among different model components represent unobserved additions (i.e., recruitment or immigration) or removals (i.e., death or emigration) when annual population counts are reliable. In a case study of gray wolves in Wisconsin (1980-2011), concordant with policy changes, we estimated that a discrepancy of 0% (1980-1995), -2% (1996-2002), and 4% (2003-2011) in the annual mortality rate was needed to explain annual growth rate. Additional mortality in 2003-2011 may reflect density-dependent mechanisms, changes in illegal killing with shifts in wolf management, and nonindependent censoring in survival data. Integrated population models provide insights into unobserved or unobservable processes by quantifying discrepancies among data sets. Our modeling approach is generalizable to many population analysis needs and allows for identifying dynamic differences due to external drivers, such as management or policy changes. PMID:25691964

  14. Impact of Zooplankton Grazing on the Excystation, Viability, and Infectivity of the Protozoan Pathogens Cryptosporidium parvum and Giardia lamblia?

    PubMed Central

    Connelly, S. J.; Wolyniak, E. A.; Dieter, K. L.; Williamson, C. E.; Jellison, K. L.

    2007-01-01

    Very little is known about the ability of the zooplankton grazer Daphnia pulicaria to reduce populations of Giardia lamblia cysts and Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in surface waters. The potential for D. pulicaria to act as a biological filter of C. parvum and G. lamblia was tested under three grazing pressures (one, two, or four D. pulicaria grazers per 66 ml). (Oo)cysts (1 × 104 per 66 ml) were added to each grazing bottle along with the algal food Selenastrum capricornutum (6.6 × 104 cells per 66 ml) to stimulate normal grazing. Bottles were rotated (2 rpm) to prevent settling of (oo)cysts and algae for 24 h (a light:dark cycle of 16 h:8 h) at 20°C. The impact of D. pulicaria grazing on (oo)cysts was assessed by (i) (oo)cyst clearance rates, (ii) (oo)cyst viability, (iii) (oo)cyst excystation, and (iv) oocyst infectivity in cell culture. Two D. pulicaria grazers significantly decreased the total number of C. parvum oocysts by 52% and G. lamblia cysts by 44%. Furthermore, two D. pulicaria grazers significantly decreased C. parvum excystation and infectivity by 5% and 87%, respectively. Two D. pulicaria grazers significantly decreased the viability of G. lamblia cysts by 52%, but analysis of G. lamblia excystation was confounded by observed mechanical disruption of the cysts after grazing. No mechanical disruption of the C. parvum oocysts was observed, presumably due to their smaller size. The data provide strong evidence that zooplankton grazers have the potential to substantially decrease the population of infectious C. parvum and G. lamblia in freshwater ecosystems. PMID:17873076

  15. Fluctuations in a SIS epidemic model with variable size population

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Abderrhaman Iggidr; K. Niri; E. Ould Moulay Ely

    2010-01-01

    In an epidemiological model, time spent in one compartment is often modeled by a delay in the model. In general the presence of delay in differential equations can change the stability of an equilibrium to instability and causes the appearance of oscillatory solutions.In this paper we consider a SIS epidemiological model with demographic effects: birth, mortality and mortality caused by

  16. A heterogeneous population model for the analysis of bacterial growth kinetics

    Microsoft Academic Search

    R. C. McKellar

    1997-01-01

    A two-compartment, heterogeneous population model (HPM) was derived using the simulation software SB ModelMaker© to describe the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in bacteriological media at 5–35 °C. The model assumed that, at time t = 0, the inoculum was distributed between two distinct compartments, Non-Growing and Growing, and that growth could be described by four parameters: initial total cell population

  17. A population model for the black tern Chlidonias niger in West-Europe

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Jan van der Winden; Peter W. van Horssen

    2008-01-01

    Based on empiric data of breeding success and accurate number trends in The Netherlands, a population model for the black\\u000a tern was constructed. This model is based on Leslie matrices. Reproductive parameters from the four most important landscape\\u000a types (river landscape, agricultural grasslands, peat marsh and heath land\\/moors) are used as model input. Highly accurate\\u000a national population trend data were

  18. Leslie/Lefkovitch Matrix Models for Age or Stage-structured Populations

    NSDL National Science Digital Library

    John Jungck (Beloit College; Biology)

    2005-05-21

    This excel workbook uses the Leslie matrix model for population projection of age-class structured populations, and also allows Lefkovitch matrix models for stage-class structured populations. The user enters age or stage specific fecundity and survival rates as well as the populationâ??s initial proportions. The workbook calculates the matrix with corresponding eigenvalues for finite growth rate and eigenvectors for stable age/stage distribution and reproductive value. The graphical output included illustrates the stabilization of population structure, reproductive values and the finite rate of increase. It also includes exponential growth curves and semi-log plots of the population growth. The user can view population projections for four actual datasets.

  19. Modelling the impact of toxic and disturbance stress on white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) populations.

    PubMed

    Korsman, John C; Schipper, Aafke M; Lenders, H J Rob; Foppen, Ruud P B; Hendriks, A Jan

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have related breeding success and survival of sea eagles to toxic or non-toxic stress separately. In the present investigation, we analysed single and combined impacts of both toxic and disturbance stress on populations of white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla), using an analytical single-species model. Chemical and eco(toxico)logical data reported from laboratory and field studies were used to parameterise and validate the model. The model was applied to assess the impact of ?PCB, DDE and disturbance stress on the white-tailed eagle population in The Netherlands. Disturbance stress was incorporated through a 1.6% reduction in survival and a 10-50% reduction in reproduction. ?PCB contamination from 1950 up to 1987 was found to be too high to allow the return of white-tailed eagle as a breeding species in that period. ?PCB and population trends simulated for 2006-2050 suggest that future population growth is still reduced. Disturbance stress resulted in a reduced population development. The combination of both toxic and disturbance stress varied from a slower population development to a catastrophical reduction in population size, where the main cause was attributed to the reduction in reproduction of 50%. Application of the model was restricted by the current lack of quantitative dose-response relationships between non-toxic stress and survival and reproduction. Nevertheless, the model provides a first step towards integrating and quantifying the impacts of multiple stressors on white-tailed eagle populations. PMID:21861166

  20. Population Dynamic Models Generating Species Abundance Distributions of the Gamma Type

    Microsoft Academic Search

    Steinar Engen; Russell Lande

    1996-01-01

    This paper deals with processes generating species abundance distributions of the gamma type, including Fisher's logarithmic series model, MacArthur's broken stick model and the extended gamma model. Speciation is described by a Poisson process and density-dependence within species is given by the logistic growth function. Environmental fluctuations are modelled by constant environmental variances in specific rates of population growth. All