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Sample records for zooplankton population model

  1. Lake acidification: Effects on crustacean zooplankton populations

    SciTech Connect

    Havens, K.E. ); Yan, N.D. ); Keller, W. )

    1993-08-01

    The ranked acid sensitivities of six common crustacean zooplankton taxa were determined from a multilake field survey in Ontario and from laboratory bioassays. The two approaches gave the same ranking (from most to least sensitive): Daphnia galeata mendotae, Daphnia retrocurva, and Skistodiaptomus oregonensis > Diaphanosoma birgei > Mesocyclops edax > Bosmina longirostris. This finding suggests that acidification has caused the widespread damage which has been documented for the zooplankton of Ontario and northeastern US lakes. 24 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  2. DEBtox theory and matrix population models as helpful tools in understanding the interaction between toxic cyanobacteria and zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Billoir, Elise; da Silva Ferrão-Filho, Aloysio; Laure Delignette-Muller, Marie; Charles, Sandrine

    2009-06-01

    Bioassays were performed to find out how field samples of the toxic cyanobacteria Microcystis aeruginosa affect Moina micrura, a cladoceran found in the tropical Jacarepagua Lagoon (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The DEBtox (Dynamic Energy Budget theory applied to toxicity data) approach has been proposed for use in analysing chronic toxicity tests as an alternative to calculating the usual safety parameters (NOEC, ECx). DEBtox theory deals with the energy balance between physiological processes (assimilation, maintenance, growth and reproduction), and it can be used to investigate and compare various hypotheses concerning the mechanism of action of a toxicant. Even though the DEBtox framework was designed for standard toxicity bioassays carried out with standard species (fish, daphnids), we applied the growth and reproduction models to M. micrura, by adapting the data available using a weight-length allometric relationship. Our modelling approach appeared to be very relevant at the individual level, and confirmed previous conclusions about the toxic mechanism. In our study we also wanted to assess the toxic effects at the population level, which is a more relevant endpoint in risk assessment. We therefore incorporated both lethal and sublethal toxic effects in a matrix population model used to calculate the finite rate of population change as a continuous function of the exposure concentration. Alongside this calculation, we constructed a confidence band to predict the critical exposure concentration for population health. Finally, we discuss our findings with regard to the prospects for further refining the analysis of ecotoxicological data. PMID:18706427

  3. Evaluation of abiotic stresses of temperate estuaries by using resident zooplankton: A community vs. population approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, Sourav; Wooldridge, Tris; Perissinotto, Renzo

    2016-03-01

    By using permanently resident zooplankton, we assessed the ecological level (i.e. community and or population) that provides more in-depth indication of the stress related to salinity and temperature fluctuations in temperate estuaries. In the semi-arid warm temperate South Africa, the Gamtoos estuary experiences a full salinity gradient maintained by irregular but relatively frequent freshwater pulses, whereas the Kromme estuary is euhaline throughout its extent and receives only occasional freshwater inputs when the storage reservoir six km upstream overtops. Changes in the species evenness index of Pielou and the abundances of estuarine resident zooplankton species were modelled against salinity and temperature variations of respective estuaries. In the Gamtoos estuary, response of individual populations provided more in-depth information regarding zooplankton variability. However the most abundant resident zooplankton i.e. Acartia longipatella a copepod was not the best predictor of the salinity and temperature fluctuations. Conversely, the Kromme estuary study provided insights into the potential vulnerability of the resident estuarine zooplankton community to cold. Further, the population level study exposed responses of specific species against salinity changes. We discuss the pros and cons of designing ecological indicators of abiotic stress based on specific species, targeted to specific ecological level, and needs of considering the frequency and magnitude of fresh water inflow in an estuary. A suggestion is to use specific taxonomic group(s) (e.g. Copepods) to better understand the abiotic stress factors of specific set of estuaries (e.g. freshwater rich/starved) until a 'one size fits all' indicator is found for temperate estuaries.

  4. Effects of alewife predation on zooplankton populations in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wells, LaRue

    1970-01-01

    The zooplankton populations in southeastern Lake Michigan underwent striking, size-related changes between 1954 and 1966. Forms that decline sharply were the largest cladocerans (Leptodora kindtii, Daphnia galeata, and D. retrocurva), the largest calanoid copepods (Limnocalanus macrurus, Epischura lacustris, and Diaptomus sicilis), and the largest cyclopoid copepod (Mesocyclops edax). Two of these, D. galeata and M. edax (both abundant in 1954), became extremely rare. Certain medium-sized or small species increased in numbers: Daphnia longiremis, Holopedium gibberum, Polyphemus pediculus, Bosmina longirostris, Bosmina coregoni, Ceriodaphnia sp., Cyclops bicuspidatus, Cyclops vernalis, and Diaptomus ashlandi. Evidence is strong that the changes were due to selective predation by alewives. The alewife was uncommon in southeastern Lake Michigan in 1954 but had increased to enormous proportions by 1966; there was a massive dieoff in spring 1967, and abundance remained relatively low in 1968. The composition of zooplankton populations in 1968 generally had shifted back toward that of 1954, although D. galeata and M. edax remained rare. The average size, and size at onset of maturity, of D. retrocurva decreased noticeably between 1954 and 1966 but increased between 1966 and 1968.

  5. Roles of predation, food, and temperature in structuring the epilimnetic zooplankton populations in Lake Ontario, 1981-1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johannsson, Ora E.; O'Gorman, Robert

    1991-01-01

    We sampled phytoplankton, zooplankton, and alewives Alosa pseudoharengus and measured water temperature in Lake Ontario during 1981–1986. Through the use of general linear regression models we then sought evidence of control of the eplimnetic zooplankton community (mid-July to mid-October) by producers, consumers, and temperature. Our measures of the zooplankton community were total biomass, cladoceran biomass, and the ratio of large to small Daphnia spp. (D. galeata mendotae andD. retrocurva). Zooplankton population variables assessed were abundance, egg ratio, and productivity. Through factor analysis, factors were created from the standardized, transformed independent variables for use in the regression analyses. Regression models showed significant inverse relationships (P < 0.05) between alewives and Bosmina longirostris (abundance, production, and egg ratio), Ceriodaphnia lacustris (egg ratio), andDaphnia retrocurva (egg ratio). Bosmina longirostris and D. retrocurva egg ratios were inversely related to algae biomass (<20 μm), thus the smaller algae might be controlled in part by the zooplankton community. Production of C. lacustris was directly related to temperature, as was the production and abundance of Tropocyclops prasinus. The annual size-frequency distributions of B. longirostris and D. retrocurva were inversely related to yearling alewife abundance and directly related to adult alewife abundance, which suggested that yearlings use a particulate-feeding mode on these zooplankton species more frequently than adults. We found no significant negative correlations among the zooplankton species, which suggested that interzooplankton predation and competition were not as important in structuring the community as were planktivory and temperature.

  6. Distribution and abundance of zooplankton populations in Crater Lake, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larson, G.L.; McIntire, C.D.; Buktenica, M.W.; Girdner, S.F.; Truitt, R.E.

    2007-01-01

    The zooplankton assemblages in Crater Lake exhibited consistency in species richness and general taxonomic composition, but varied in density and biomass during the period between 1988 and 2000. Collectively, the assemblages included 2 cladoceran taxa and 10 rotifer taxa (excluding rare taxa). Vertical habitat partitioning of the water column to a depth of 200 m was observed for most species with similar food habits and/or feeding mechanisms. No congeneric replacement was observed. The dominant species in the assemblages were variable, switching primarily between periods of dominance of Polyarthra-Keratella cochlearis and Daphnia. The unexpected occurrence and dominance of Asplanchna in 1991 and 1992 resulted in a major change in this typical temporal shift between Polyarthra-K. cochlearis and Daphnia. Following a collapse of the zooplankton biomass in 1993 that was probably caused by predation from Asplanchna, Kellicottia dominated the zooplankton assemblage biomass between 1994 and 1997. The decline in biomass of Kellicottia by 1998 coincided with a dramatic increase in Daphnia biomass. When Daphnia biomass declined by 2000, Keratella biomass increased again. Thus, by 1998 the assemblage returned to the typical shift between Keratella-Polyarthra and Daphnia. Although these observations provided considerable insight about the interannual variability of the zooplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, little was discovered about mechanisms behind the variability. When abundant, kokanee salmon may have played an important role in the disappearance of Daphnia in 1990 and 2000 either through predation, inducing diapause, or both. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  7. RESPONSE OF PREDATORY ZOOPLANKTON POPULATIONS TO THE EXPERIMENTAL ACIDIFICATION OF LITTLE ROCK LAKE, WI

    EPA Science Inventory

    To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, we monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of there levels: pH 5.6, 5.2, and 4.7). oncentrations...

  8. New view of population genetics of zooplankton: RAD-seq analysis reveals population structure of the North Atlantic planktonic copepod Centropages typicus.

    PubMed

    Blanco-Bercial, L; Bucklin, A

    2016-04-01

    Detection of population genetic structure of zooplankton at medium-to-small spatial scales in the absence of physical barriers has remained challenging and controversial. The large population sizes and high rates of gene flow characteristic of zooplankton have made resolution of geographical differentiation very difficult, especially when using few genetic markers and assuming equilibrium conditions. Next-generation sequencing now allows simultaneous sampling of hundreds to thousands of genetic markers; new analytical approaches allow studies under nonequilibrium conditions and directional migration. Samples of the North Atlantic Ocean planktonic copepod, Centropages typicus, were analysed using restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing on a PROTON platform. Although prior studies revealed no genetic differentiation of populations across the geographical range of the species, analysis of RAD tags showed significant structure across the North Atlantic Ocean. We also compared the likelihood for models of connectivity among NW Atlantic populations under various directional flow scenarios that replicate oceanographic conditions of the sampled domain. High-density marker sampling with RAD sequencing markedly outperformed other technical and analytical approaches in detection of population genetic structure and characterization of connectivity of this high geneflow zooplankton species. PMID:26857348

  9. Towards developing a general framework for modelling vertical migration in zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Morozov, Andrew Yu; Kuzenkov, Oleg A

    2016-09-21

    Diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton is a widespread phenomenon in both oceans and lakes, and is generally considered to be the largest synchronized movement of biomass on Earth. Most existing mathematical models of DVM are based on the assumption that animals maximize a certain criterion such as the expected reproductive value, the venturous revenue, the ratio of energy gain/mortality or some predator avoidance function when choosing their instantaneous depth. The major shortcoming of this general point of view is that the predicted DVM may be strongly affected by a subjective choice of a particular optimization criterion. Here we argue that the optimal strategy of DVM can be unambiguously obtained as an outcome of selection in the underlying equations of genotype/traits frequency dynamics. Using this general paradigm, we explore the optimal strategy for the migration across different depths by zooplankton grazers throughout the day. To illustrate our ideas we consider four generic DVM models, each making different assumptions on the population dynamics of zooplankton, and demonstrate that in each model we need to maximize a particular functional to find the optimal strategy. Surprisingly, patterns of DVM obtained for different models greatly differ in terms of their parameters dependence. We then show that the infinite dimensional trait space of different zooplankton trajectories can be projected onto a low dimensional space of generalized parameters and the genotype evolution dynamics can be easily followed using this low-dimensional space. Using this space of generalized parameters we explore the influence of mutagenesis on evolution of DVM, and we show that strong mutagenesis allows the coexistence of an infinitely large number of strategies whereas for weak mutagenesis the selection results in the extinction of most strategies, with the surviving strategies all staying close to the optimal strategy in the corresponding mutagenesis-free system. PMID

  10. Gelatinous zooplankton in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the adjacent Schelde estuary: Spatio-temporal distribution patterns and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vansteenbrugge, Lies; Van Regenmortel, Tina; De Troch, Marleen; Vincx, Magda; Hostens, Kris

    2015-03-01

    Many ocean ecosystems are thought to be heading towards a dominance of gelatinous organisms. However, gelatinous zooplankton has been largely understudied and the absence of quantitative long-term data for the studied area impedes drawing conclusions on potential increasing densities. This study gives a comprehensive overview of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of gelatinous zooplankton in terms of diversity and density in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the adjacent Schelde estuary, based on monthly and seasonal samples between March 2011 and February 2012. Three Scyphozoa, three Ctenophora and 27 Hydrozoa taxa were identified, including three non-indigenous species: Mnemiopsis leidyi, Nemopsis bachei and Lovenella assimilis. In general, one gelatinous zooplankton assemblage was found across locations and seasons. Average gelatinous zooplankton densities reached up to 18 ind·m-3 near the coast, gradually declining towards the open sea. In the brackish Schelde estuary, average densities remained below 3 ind·m-3. Highest gelatinous zooplankton densities were recorded in summer and autumn. Overall, hydromedusae were the most important group both in terms of diversity and density. The ctenophore Pleurobrachia pileus and the hydromedusa Clytia sp. were present in every season and at every location. Gelatinous zooplankton densities never outnumbered the non-gelatinous zooplankton densities recorded from the WP3 samples. The spatial and temporal distribution patterns seemed to be mainly driven by temperature (season) and salinity (location). Other environmental parameters including (larger) non-gelatinous zooplankton densities (as an important food source) were not retained in the most parsimonious DistLM model.In terms of population dynamics, Beroe sp. seemed to follow the three reproductive cycles of its prey P. pileus and the presence of M. leidyi, which were abundant in a broad size spectrum in summer and autumn. In general, gelatinous zooplankton

  11. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  12. Wetland defense: naturally occurring pesticide resistance in zooplankton populations protects the stability of aquatic communities.

    PubMed

    Bendis, Randall J; Relyea, Rick A

    2016-06-01

    Anthropogenic stressors are ubiquitous and have been implicated in worldwide declines of terrestrial and aquatic species. Pesticides are one such stressor that can have profound effects on aquatic communities by directly affecting sensitive species and indirectly affecting other species via trophic cascades, which can alter ecosystem function. However, there is growing evidence that non-target species can evolve increased resistance. When such species are important drivers of the food web, then evolved resistance should help buffer communities from the effects of pesticides. To examine this possibility, we cultured four populations of the common zooplankton Daphnia pulex that we previously demonstrated were either sensitive or resistant to a common insecticide (i.e., chlorpyrifos) due to their proximity to agriculture. Using outdoor mesocosms that contained identical aquatic communities of phytoplankton, periphyton, and leopard frog tadpoles (Lithobates pipiens), we manipulated four D. pulex populations and four insecticide concentrations. As we monitored the communities for nearly 3 months, we found that the insecticide caused direct mortality of D. pulex in communities containing sensitive populations, and this led to a bloom of phytoplankton. In contrast, the insecticide caused much less direct mortality in communities containing resistant D. pulex populations, and the trophic cascade was prevented under low to moderate insecticide concentrations. Across all insecticide treatments, survivorship of leopard frogs was approximately 72 % in communities with resistant D. pulex but only 35 % in communities with sensitive D. pulex. To our knowledge, this is one of the first studies to use naturally occurring population variation in insecticide resistance to show that the evolution of pesticide resistance in zooplankton can mitigate the effects of insecticide-induced trophic cascades, and that this outcome can have far-reaching community effects. PMID:26875187

  13. Impact of climate change on zooplankton communities, seabird populations and arctic terrestrial ecosystem—A scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stempniewicz, Lech; Błachowiak-Samołyk, Katarzyna; Węsławski, Jan M.

    2007-11-01

    Many arctic terrestrial ecosystems suffer from a permanent deficiency of nutrients. Marine birds that forage at sea and breed on land can transport organic matter from the sea to land, and thus help to initiate and sustain terrestrial ecosystems. This organic matter initiates the emergence of local tundra communities, increasing primary and secondary production and species diversity. Climate change will influence ocean circulation and the hydrologic regime, which will consequently lead to a restructuring of zooplankton communities between cold arctic waters, with a dominance of large zooplankton species, and Atlantic waters in which small species predominate. The dominance of large zooplankton favours plankton-eating seabirds, such as the little auk ( Alle alle), while the presence of small zooplankton redirects the food chain to plankton-eating fish, up through to fish-eating birds (e.g., guillemots Uria sp.). Thus, in regions where the two water masses compete for dominance, such as in the Barents Sea, plankton-eating birds should dominate the avifauna in cold periods and recess in warmer periods, when fish-eaters should prevail. Therefore under future anthropogenic climate scenarios, there could be serious consequences for the structure and functioning of the terrestrial part of arctic ecosystems, due in part to changes in the arctic marine avifauna. Large colonies of plankton-eating little auks are located on mild mountain slopes, usually a few kilometres from the shore, whereas colonies of fish-eating guillemots are situated on rocky cliffs at the coast. The impact of guillemots on the terrestrial ecosystems is therefore much smaller than for little auks because of the rapid washing-out to sea of the guano deposited on the seabird cliffs. These characteristics of seabird nesting sites dramatically limit the range of occurrence of ornithogenic soils, and the accompanying flora and fauna, to locations where talus-breeding species occur. As a result of climate

  14. Modeling dynamic interactions and coherence between marine zooplankton and fishes linked to environmental variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hui; Fogarty, Michael J.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Glaser, Sarah M.; Ye, Hao; Deyle, Ethan; Sugihara, George

    2014-03-01

    The dynamics of marine fishes are closely related to lower trophic levels and the environment. Quantitatively understanding ecosystem dynamics linking environmental variability and prey resources to exploited fishes is crucial for ecosystem-based management of marine living resources. However, standard statistical models typically grounded in the concept of linear system may fail to capture the complexity of ecological processes. We have attempted to model ecosystem dynamics using a flexible, nonparametric class of nonlinear forecasting models. We analyzed annual time series of four environmental indices, 22 marine copepod taxa, and four ecologically and commercially important fish species during 1977 to 2009 on Georges Bank, a highly productive and intensively studied area of the northeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem. We examined the underlying dynamic features of environmental indices and copepods, quantified the dynamic interactions and coherence with fishes, and explored the potential control mechanisms of ecosystem dynamics from a nonlinear perspective. We found: (1) the dynamics of marine copepods and environmental indices exhibiting clear nonlinearity; (2) little evidence of complex dynamics across taxonomic levels of copepods; (3) strong dynamic interactions and coherence between copepods and fishes; and (4) the bottom-up forcing of fishes and top-down control of copepods coexisting as target trophic levels vary. These findings highlight the nonlinear interactions among ecosystem components and the importance of marine zooplankton to fish populations which point to two forcing mechanisms likely interactively regulating the ecosystem dynamics on Georges Bank under a changing environment.

  15. A case study of an enhanced eutrophication model with stoichiometric zooplankton growth sub-model calibrated by Bayesian method.

    PubMed

    Yang, Likun; Peng, Sen; Sun, Jingmei; Zhao, Xinhua; Li, Xia

    2016-05-01

    Urban lakes in China have suffered from severe eutrophication over the past several years, particularly those with relatively small areas and closed watersheds. Many efforts have been made to improve the understanding of eutrophication physiology with advanced mathematical models. However, several eutrophication models ignore zooplankton behavior and treat zooplankton as particles, which lead to the systematic errors. In this study, an eutrophication model was enhanced with a stoichiometric zooplankton growth sub-model that simulated the zooplankton predation process and the interplay among nitrogen, phosphorus, and oxygen cycles. A case study in which the Bayesian method was used to calibrate the enhanced eutrophication model parameters and to calculate the model simulation results was carried out in an urban lake in Tianjin, China. Finally, a water quality assessment was also conducted for eutrophication management. Our result suggests that (1) integration of the Bayesian method and the enhanced eutrophication model with a zooplankton feeding behavior sub-model can effectively depict the change in water quality and (2) the nutrients resulting from rainwater runoff laid the foundation for phytoplankton bloom. PMID:26780061

  16. Biomass, growth, and development of populations of herbivorous zooplankton in the southeastern Bering Sea during spring

    SciTech Connect

    Vidal, J.; Smith, S.L.

    1985-09-01

    Two distinct communities of herbivorous zooplankton, separated by an oceanographic front, inhabit the continental shelf and slope of the southeastern Bering Sea during spring. The community over the outer shelf and slope is dominated by populations of large-sized oceanic copepods (mainly Neocalanus ssp.) that develop early in spring and attain maximum biomass and growth rates by mid- to late spring. Total biomass and growth rates of herbivores follow the spring outburst of phytoplankton; during April and May biomass increases from less than or equal to1 to approx.14 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope and to approx.10 g C m/sup -2/ on the outer shelf, and maximum growth rates >500 and approx.300 mg C m/sup -2/ day/sup -1/ occure on the slope and outer shelf, respectively in May. The dominant species, N. plumchrus, grows from copepodid I and V between late March and early May, and after attaining maximum body weight in late May and early June it begins its downward migration. The inshore community on the middle shelf is dominated by the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschi in April and May and by the copepod Calanus marshallae in late May and early June. Total biomass (less than or equal to g C m/sup -2/) and growth rates (less than or equal to50 mg C m/sup -2/) of the inshore community are substantially lower than those of the offshore community and show a delayed response to the spring bloom of phytoplankton; both biomass and growth rates increase about one month after the bloom. Small herbivorous copepods contributed little to the total biomass and growth rates of either community and the cumulative community growth rates during April and May decreases from 18.3 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope to 2.5 g C m/sup -2/ on the middle shelf. 79 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  17. Biomixing due to diel vertical migrations of zooplankton: Comparison of computational fluid dynamics model with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dean, Cayla; Soloviev, Alexander; Hirons, Amy; Frank, Tamara; Wood, Jon

    2016-02-01

    Recent studies (Dewar et al., 2006; Wilhelmus and Dabiri, 2014) suggest that diel vertical migrations (DVM) of zooplankton (or other migrating organisms) may have an impact on ocean mixing, though details are not completely clear. Zooplankton that undergo DVM can have an impact on oil transport through the water column, and oil and dispersants can have a negative or even lethal effect on the organisms. Kunze et al. (2006) reported an increase of dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, ε, by four to five orders of magnitude during DVM of zooplankton over background turbulence in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada. However, the effect was not observed in the same area by Rousseau et al. (2010) and was later reassessed by Kunze (2011). In our work, an 11-month data set obtained in the Straits of Florida with a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler revealed strong sound scattering layers undergoing DVM. We used a 3-D non-hydrostatic computational fluid dynamics model with Lagrangian particle injections (a proxy for migrating organisms) via a discrete phase model to simulate the effect of turbulence generation by DVM. We tested a range of organism concentrations from 1000 to 10,000 organisms/m3 based on measurements by Greenlaw (1979) and Mackie and Mills (1983) in Saanich Inlet. At a concentration close to the upper limit, the simulation showed an increase in ε by two to three orders of magnitude during DVM over background turbulence, 10-9 W kg-1. At a concentration of 1000 organisms/m3, almost no turbulence above the background level was produced in the model. These results suggest that the Kunze et al. (2006) observations could have been performed at a larger concentration of migrating zooplankton than those reported by Rousseau et al. (2010). No exact zooplankton concentrations data were provided in either work. The difference between observations and the model can, in part, be explained by the fact that Kunze et al. (2006) measured

  18. Metal and proton toxicity to lake zooplankton: a chemical speciation based modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Stockdale, Anthony; Tipping, Edward; Lofts, Stephen; Fott, Jan; Garmo, Oyvind A; Hruska, Jakub; Keller, Bill; Löfgren, Stefan; Maberly, Stephen C; Majer, Vladimir; Nierzwicki-Bauer, Sandra A; Persson, Gunnar; Schartau, Ann-Kristin; Thackeray, Stephen J; Valois, Amanda; Vrba, Jaroslav; Walseng, Bjørn; Yan, Norman

    2014-03-01

    The WHAM-FTOX model quantifies the combined toxic effects of protons and metal cations towards aquatic organisms through the toxicity function (FTOX), a linear combination of the products of organism-bound cation and a toxic potency coefficient for each cation. We describe the application of the model to predict an observable ecological field variable, species richness of pelagic lake crustacean zooplankton, studied with respect to either acidification or the impacts of metals from smelters. The fitted results give toxic potencies increasing in the order H(+) < Al < Cu < Zn < Ni. In general, observed species richness is lower than predicted, but in some instances agreement is close, and is rarely higher than predictions. The model predicts recovery in agreement with observations for three regions, namely Sudbury (Canada), Bohemian Forest (Czech Republic) and a subset of lakes across Norway, but fails to predict observed recovery from acidification in Adirondack lakes (USA). PMID:24370669

  19. A New Trait-Based Auto-Emergent Model for Zooplankton and Confrontation with Size-Structured Observations from the Bay of Biscay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vandromme, Pieter; Sourisseau, Marc; Huret, Martin

    2013-04-01

    Zooplankton plays a significant role in marine ecosystems bridging the gap between primary producers and top consumers and interacting with the particle flux through complex dynamics. Scarcity of data and complexity of observing zooplankton make it difficult to integrate it in biogeochemical models where it is most often formulated in a simpler manner, i.e. classic box models with usually two compartments (micro and meso/macro zooplankton). Recent advances in automatic sizing, counting and identification allow better estimates of the dynamics and distribution of zooplankton, notably through the measurement of its size structure, and for zooplankton size matter. Most zooplankton physiological rates as well as predator:prey interactions can be significantly relied to individuals size through allometric relations. Such size-dependency was used in recent models. Yet, these models were neither confronted to observations nor integrated in 3D biogeochemical models. Here we propose a newly developed model of zooplankton dynamics based on size-dependent allometric relations but which allows various diet types regardless of the size. A size and a degree of herbivory is randomly drawn for each zooplankton species generated within the model (up to 400 here, limited by actual computational costs). By generating random degree of herbivory zooplankton species of same size could have various diet (from herbivore to carnivore). Other parameters leading to various reproductive strategies or vertical migration could also be drawn randomly (not tested here). The zooplankton model is coupled to the 3D biogeochemical model MARS3D on a test case representing a simplified view of the Bay of Biscay (i.e., continental shelf, estuary, tides). The model shows auto-emergent properties with the selection of size/diet most adapted to local conditions (here offshore vs. coastal, estuary…). Then, patterns of the modeled size-structure of the zooplankton are confronted to the ones observed during

  20. Zooplankton and forage fish species off Peru: Large-scale bottom-up forcing and local-scale depletion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayón, Patricia; Swartzman, Gordon; Bertrand, Arnaud; Gutiérrez, Mariano; Bertrand, Sophie

    2008-10-01

    The Humboldt Current System, like all upwelling systems, has dramatic quantities of plankton-feeding fish, which suggested that their population dynamics may ‘drive’ or ‘control’ ecosystem dynamics. With this in mind we analysed the relationship between forage fish populations and their main prey, zooplankton populations. Our study combined a zooplankton sampling program (1961-2005) with simultaneous acoustic observations on fish from 40 pelagic surveys (1983-2005) conducted by the Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE) and landing statistics for anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens) and sardine ( Sardinops sagax) along the Peruvian coast from 1961 to 2005. The multi-year trend of anchoveta population abundance varied consistently with zooplankton biovolume trend, suggesting bottom-up control on anchovy at the population scale (since oceanographic conditions and phytoplankton production support the changes in zooplankton abundance). For a finer-scale analysis (km) we statistically modelled zooplankton biovolume as a function of geographical (latitude and distance from the 200-m isobath), environmental (sea surface temperature), temporal (year, month and time-of-day) and biological (acoustic anchovy and sardine biomass within 5 km of each zooplankton sample) covariates over all survey using both classification and regression trees (CART) and generalized additive models (GAM). CART showed local anchoveta density to have the strongest effect on zooplankton biovolume, with significantly reduced levels of biovolume for higher neighbourhood anchoveta biomass. Additionally, zooplankton biovolume was higher offshore than on the shelf. GAM results corroborated the CART findings, also showing a clear diel effect on zooplankton biovolume, probably due to diel migration or daytime net avoidance. Apparently, the observed multi-year population scale bottom-up control is not inconsistent with local depletion of zooplankton when anchoveta are locally abundant, since the

  1. A modeling study to explore on-shelf transport of oceanic zooplankton in the Eastern Bering Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, G. A.; Coyle, K. O.; Hedstrom, K.; Curchitser, E. N.

    2013-07-01

    The Eastern Bering Sea shelf is divided into distinct hydrographic domains by structural fronts. Despite frontal obstructions to cross-shelf transport, each year large oceanic copepods—primarily Neocalanus spp.—are known to dominate the biomass of the outer-shelf zooplankton communities, and in some years are advected into the middle-shelf domain. Using ROMS (the Regional Ocean Modeling System), coupled with a float tracking model designed to represent ontogenetic vertical migration behavior of Neocalanus, we explored the mechanisms, timing, and location of the transport of oceanic zooplankton onto the eastern Bering Sea shelf from overwintering sources along the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea shelf breaks, under a variety of environmental conditions. Our float tracking experiments suggest that the timing of on-shelf transport and the distribution of oceanic zooplankton on the shelf can vary substantially between one year and another. The Bering, Pribilof, and Zhemchug Canyons and Cape Navarin were all regions of elevated on-shelf float transport. Wind direction was the primary factor controlling inter-annual variability in the timing, amount, and location of the on-shelf transport of our Neocalanus floats. Float transport across the northern and southern shelves responded in opposite directions to inter-annual differences in wind forcing: southeasterly wind enhanced on-shelf transport of the Neocalanus floats along the southern shelf but suppressed on-shelf transport over the northern shelf. Conversely, northwesterly wind suppressed on-shelf zooplankton transport onto the southern shelf but promoted enhanced transport around Cape Navarin on the northern shelf. Transport of the Neocalanus floats onto the shelf can be very episodic, reflecting the short duration of winds that promote on-shelf transport. Relatively short (days to weeks) periods of southeasterly wind between March and April significantly impacted the number of floats transported onto the shelf. The

  2. Zooplankton intermittency and turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmitt, François G.

    2010-05-01

    Planktonic organisms usually live in a turbulent world. Since marine turbulence is characterized by very high Reynolds numbers, it possesses very intermittent fluctuations which in turn affect marine life. We consider here such influence on zooplankton on 2 aspects. First we consider zooplankton motion in the lab. Many copepods display swimming abilities. More and more species have been recently recorded using normal or high speed cameras, and many trajectories have been extracted from these movies and are now available for analysis. These trajectories can be complex, stochastic, with random switching from low velocity to high velocity events and even jumps. These complex trajectories show that an adequate modeling is necessary to understand and characterize them. Here we review the results published in the literature on copepod trajectories. We discuss the random walk, Levy walk modeling and introduce also multifractal random walks. We discuss the way to discriminate between these different walks using experimental data. Stochastic simulations will be performed to illustrate the different families. Second, we consider zooplankton contact rates in the framework of intermittent turbulence. Intermittency may have influence on plankton contact rates. We consider the Particle Stokes number of copepods, in a intermediate dissipation range affected by intermittent fluctuations. We show that they may display preferential concentration effects, and we consider the influence on contact rates of this effect in the intermediate dissipation range.

  3. Hydroacoustic estimation of zooplankton biomass at two shoal complexes in the Apostle Islands Region of Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holbrook, B.V.; Hrabik, T.R.; Branstrator, D.K.; Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    Hydroacoustics can be used to assess zooplankton populations, however, backscatter must be scaled to be biologically meaningful. In this study, we used a general model to correlate site-specific hydroacoustic backscatter with zooplankton dry weight biomass estimated from net tows. The relationship between zooplankton dry weight and backscatter was significant (p < 0.001) and explained 76% of the variability in the dry weight data. We applied this regression to hydroacoustic data collected monthly in 2003 and 2004 at two shoals in the Apostle Island Region of Lake Superior. After applying the regression model to convert hydroacoustic backscatter to zooplankton dry weight biomass, we used geostatistics to analyze the mean and variance, and ordinary kriging to create spatial zooplankton distribution maps. The mean zooplankton dry weight biomass estimates from plankton net tows and hydroacoustics were not significantly different (p = 0.19) but the hydroacoustic data had a significantly lower coefficient of variation (p < 0.001). The maps of zooplankton distribution illustrated spatial trends in zooplankton dry weight biomass that were not discernable from the overall means.

  4. Temperature effects on stocks and stability of a phytoplankton-zooplankton model and the dependence on light and nutrients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norberg, J.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1997-01-01

    A model of a closed phytoplankton—zooplankton ecosystem was analyzed for effects of temperature on stocks and stability and the dependence of these effects on light and total nutrient concentration of the system. An analysis of the steady state equations showed that the effect of temperature on zooplankton and POM biomass was levelled when primary production is nutrient limited. Temperature increase had a generally negative effect on all biomasses at high nutrient levels due to increased maintenance costs. Nutrient limitation of net primary production is the main factor governing the effect of stocks and flows as well as the stability of the system. All components of the system, except for phytoplankton biomass, are proportional to net production and thus to the net effect of light on photosynthesis. However, temperature determines the slope of that relationship. The resilience of the system was measured by calculating the eigenvalues of the steady state. Under oligotrophic conditions, the system can be stable, but an increase in temperature can cause instability or a decrease in resilience. This conclusion is discussed in the face of recent models that take spatial heterogeneity into account and display far more stable behavior, in better agreement to empirical data. Using simulations, we found that the amplitude of fluctuations of the herbivore stock increases with temperature while the mean biomass and minimum values decrease in comparison with steady state predictions

  5. The effects of juvenile American shad planktivory on zooplankton production in Columbia River food webs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Haskell, Craig A.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2013-01-01

    Columbia River reservoirs support a large population of nonnative American Shad Alosa sapidissima that consume the zooplankton that native fishes also rely on. We hypothesized that the unprecedented biomass of juvenile American Shad in John Day Reservoir is capable of altering the zooplankton community if these fish consume a large portion of the zooplankton production. We derived taxon-specific estimates of zooplankton production using field data and a production model from the literature. Empirical daily ration was estimated for American Shad and expanded to population-level consumption using abundance and biomass data from hydroacoustic surveys. Daphnia spp. production was high in early summer but declined to near zero by September as shad abundance increased. American Shad sequentially consumed Daphnia spp., copepods, and Bosmina spp., which tracked the production trends of these taxa. American Shad evacuation rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.24/h, and daily rations ranged from 0.008 to 0.045 g·g−1·d−1 (dry weight) over all years. We observed peak American Shad biomass (45.2 kg/ha) in 1994, and daily consumption (1.6 kg/ha) approached 30% (5.3 kg/ha) of zooplankton production. On average, American Shad consumed 23.6% of the available zooplankton production (range, <1–83%). The changes in the zooplankton community are consistent with a top-down effect of planktivory by American Shad associated with their unprecedented biomass and consumption, but the effects are likely constrained by temperature, nutrient flux, and the seasonal production patterns of zooplankton in John Day Reservoir. American Shad add to the planktivory exerted by other species like Neomysis mercedis to reduce the capacity of the reservoir to support other planktivorous fishes. The introduction of American Shad and other nonnative species will continue to alter the food web in John Day Reservoir, potentially affecting native fishes, including Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp.

  6. Application of an automatic approach to calibrate the NEMURO nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton food web model in the Oyashio region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Shin-ichi; Yoshie, Naoki; Okunishi, Takeshi; Ono, Tsuneo; Okazaki, Yuji; Kuwata, Akira; Hashioka, Taketo; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Kishi, Michio J.; Nakamachi, Miwa; Shimizu, Yugo; Kakehi, Shigeho; Saito, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Tadokoro, Kazuaki; Kusaka, Akira; Kasai, Hiromi

    2010-10-01

    The Oyashio region in the western North Pacific supports high biological productivity and has been well monitored. We applied the NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) model to simulate the nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton dynamics. Determination of parameters values is very important, yet ad hoc calibration methods are often used. We used the automatic calibration software PEST (model-independent Parameter ESTimation), which has been used previously with NEMURO but in a system without ontogenetic vertical migration of the large zooplankton functional group. Determining the performance of PEST with vertical migration, and obtaining a set of realistic parameter values for the Oyashio, will likely be useful in future applications of NEMURO. Five identical twin simulation experiments were performed with the one-box version of NEMURO. The experiments differed in whether monthly snapshot or averaged state variables were used, in whether state variables were model functional groups or were aggregated (total phytoplankton, small plus large zooplankton), and in whether vertical migration of large zooplankton was included or not. We then applied NEMURO to monthly climatological field data covering 1 year for the Oyashio, and compared model fits and parameter values between PEST-determined estimates and values used in previous applications to the Oyashio region that relied on ad hoc calibration. We substituted the PEST and ad hoc calibrated parameter values into a 3-D version of NEMURO for the western North Pacific, and compared the two sets of spatial maps of chlorophyll- a with satellite-derived data. The identical twin experiments demonstrated that PEST could recover the known model parameter values when vertical migration was included, and that over-fitting can occur as a result of slight differences in the values of the state variables. PEST recovered known parameter values when using monthly snapshots of aggregated

  7. Statistical Mechanics of Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Hinow, Peter; Nihongi, Ai; Strickler, J. Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics provides the link between microscopic properties of many-particle systems and macroscopic properties such as pressure and temperature. Observations of similar “microscopic” quantities exist for the motion of zooplankton, as well as many species of other social animals. Herein, we propose to take average squared velocities as the definition of the “ecological temperature” of a population under different conditions on nutrients, light, oxygen and others. We test the usefulness of this definition on observations of the crustacean zooplankton Daphnia pulicaria. In one set of experiments, D. pulicaria is infested with the pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera. We find that infested D. pulicaria under light exposure have a significantly greater ecological temperature, which puts them at a greater risk of detection by visual predators. In a second set of experiments, we observe D. pulicaria in cold and warm water, and in darkness and under light exposure. Overall, our ecological temperature is a good discriminator of the crustacean’s swimming behavior. PMID:26270537

  8. Statistical Mechanics of Zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Hinow, Peter; Nihongi, Ai; Strickler, J Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics provides the link between microscopic properties of many-particle systems and macroscopic properties such as pressure and temperature. Observations of similar "microscopic" quantities exist for the motion of zooplankton, as well as many species of other social animals. Herein, we propose to take average squared velocities as the definition of the "ecological temperature" of a population under different conditions on nutrients, light, oxygen and others. We test the usefulness of this definition on observations of the crustacean zooplankton Daphnia pulicaria. In one set of experiments, D. pulicaria is infested with the pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera. We find that infested D. pulicaria under light exposure have a significantly greater ecological temperature, which puts them at a greater risk of detection by visual predators. In a second set of experiments, we observe D. pulicaria in cold and warm water, and in darkness and under light exposure. Overall, our ecological temperature is a good discriminator of the crustacean's swimming behavior. PMID:26270537

  9. Zooplankton research off Peru: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayón, Patricia; Criales-Hernandez, Maria I.; Schwamborn, Ralf; Hirche, Hans-Jürgen

    2008-10-01

    A review of zooplankton studies conducted in Peruvian marine waters is given. After a short history of the development of zooplankton research off Peru, we review zooplankton methodology, taxonomy, biodiversity, spatial distribution, seasonal and interannual variability, trophodynamics, secondary production, and modelling. We review studies on several micro-, meso-, macro-, and meroplankton groups, and give a species list from both published and unpublished reports. Three regional zooplankton groups have been identified: (1) a continental shelf group dominated by Acartia tonsa and Centropages brachiatus; (2) a continental slope group characterized by siphonophores, bivalves, foraminifera and radiolaria; (3) and a species-rich oceanic group. The highest zooplankton abundances and biomasses were often found between 4-6°S and 14-16°S, where continental shelves are narrow. Species composition changes with distance from the shore. Species composition and biomass also vary strongly on short time scales due to advection, peaks of larval production, trophic interactions, and community succession. The relation of zooplankton to climatic variability (ENSO and multi-decadal) and fish stocks is discussed in the context of ecological regime shifts. An intermediate upwelling hypothesis is proposed, based on the negative effects of low upwelling intensity in summer or extremely strong and enduring winter upwelling on zooplankton abundance off Peru. According to this hypothesis, intermediate upwelling creates an optimal environmental window for zooplankton communities. Finally, we highlight important knowledge gaps that warrant attention in future.

  10. High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

  11. Latitudinal comparisons of equatorial Pacific zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, M. R.; Dam, H. G.; Le Borgne, R.; Zhang, X.

    Zooplankton biomass and rates of ingestion, egestion and production in the equatorial Pacific Ocean along 140°W and 180° exhibit maximum values in the High-Nutrient Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) zone associated with equatorial upwelling (5°S-5°N) as compared to the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south. Zooplankton biomass and rates are not usually highest on the equator, but increase "downstream" of the upwelling center as the zooplankton populations exhibit a delayed response to enhanced phytoplankton production. The vertical distribution of zooplankton biomass in the equatorial HNLC area tends to be concentrated in surface waters and is more uniform with depth in oligotrophic regions to the north and south of the equatorial upwelling zone. In general, the amount of mesozooplankton (>200 μm) carbon biomass is approximately 25% of estimated phytoplankton biomass and 30% of bacterial biomass in the HNLC area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Zooplankton grazing on phytoplankton is low in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, generally <5% of the total chlorophyll-a standing stock grazed per day. Based on estimates of metabolic demand, it is apparent that zooplankton in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are omnivores, consuming primarily microzooplankton and detritus. Estimated zooplankton growth rates in the warm waters of the HNLC equatorial Pacific Ocean are high, ranging from 0.58 d -1 for 64-200 μm zooplankton to 0.08 d -1 for 1000-2000 μm zooplankton. Thus, the numerical and functional response of equatorial zooplankton to increases in phytoplankton production are more rapid than normally occurs in sub-tropical and temperate waters. Potential zooplankton fecal pellet production, estimated from metabolic demand, is approximately 1.6 times the estimated gravitational carbon flux at 150 m in the zone of equatorial upwelling (5°S-5°N) and 1.1 times the export flux in the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south. The active flux of carbon by diel migrant

  12. Modeling the direct and indirect effects of copper on phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions.

    PubMed

    Prosnier, Loïc; Loreau, Michel; Hulot, Florence D

    2015-05-01

    Predicting the effects of pollution at the community level is difficult because of the complex impacts of ecosystem dynamics and properties. To predict the effects of copper on a plant-herbivore interaction in a freshwater ecosystem, we built a model that focuses on the interaction between an alga, Scenedesmus sp., and a herbivore, Daphnia sp. The model assumes logistic growth for Scenedesmus and a type II functional response for Daphnia. Internal copper concentrations in Scenedesmus and Daphnia are calculated using a biodynamic model. We include two types of direct effects of copper on Scenedesmus and Daphnia that results from hormesis: a deficiency effect at low concentration and a toxic effect at high concentration. We perform a numerical analysis to predict the combined effects of copper and nutrient enrichment on the Scenedesmus-Daphnia interaction. Results show three types of outcomes depending on copper concentration. First, low (4 μg L(-1)) and high (50 μg L(-1)) copper concentrations cause deficiency and toxicity, respectively, leading to the extinction of all populations; for less extreme concentrations (between 4 and 5 μg L(-1) and between 16.5 and 50 μg L(-1)), only the consumer population becomes extinct. The two populations survive with intermediate concentrations. Second, when population dynamics present oscillations, copper has a stabilizing effect and reduces or suppresses oscillations. Third, copper, on account of its stabilizing effect, opposes the destabilizing effect of nutrient enrichment. Our model shows that (1) Daphnia is affected by copper at lower concentrations when community interactions are taken into account than when analyzed alone, and (2) counterintuitive effects may arise from the interaction between copper pollution and nutrient enrichment. Our model also suggests that single-value parameters such as NOEC and LOEC, which do not take community interactions into account to characterize pollutants effects, are unable to

  13. Population dynamics of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi and its impact on the zooplankton in the coastal regions of the Black Sea of the Crimean coast in 2004-2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finenko, G. A.; Abolmasova, G. I.; Romanova, Z. A.; Datsyk, N. A.; Anninskii, B. E.

    2013-02-01

    The abundance, biomasses, and population structure of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi were monitored in the coastal waters of the northern part of the Black Sea (Sevastopol Bay and the adjacent continental shelf regions) in 2004-2008. The abundance and species composition of the comb jelly's food in the sea were obtained along with experimental data on the digestion time. Based upon these data, the feeding intensity of the ctenophore in situ was estimated. This information was used to calculate the predatory impact of the comb jelly population on certain groups of forage organisms and the forage zooplankton community as a whole. The predatory impact of the M. leidyi population on the bivalve veligers was the highest (up to 90% of the abundance a day) compared to the Copepoda and Cladocera (30% and 40%, respectively). In the summers of 2004-2008, the daily consumption rates of the zooplankton by the ctenophore population in the shelf zone and in the bay were similar to each other: up to 15% and 12% of the abundance a day, respectively. The highest pressure of the ctenophore upon the zooplankton was observed in 2004 and 2008, when M. leidyi was especially abundant in the plankton for a long time.

  14. Zooplankton in the Arctic outflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, K. A.; Dritz, A. V.; Nikishina, A. B.

    2009-04-01

    Climate changes in the Arctic cause the changes in the current system that may have cascading effect on the structure of plankton community and consequently on the interlinked and delicately balanced food web. Zooplankton species are by definition incapable to perform horizontal moving. Their transport is connected with flowing water. There are zooplankton species specific for the definite water masses and they can be used as markers for the different currents. That allows us to consider zooplankton community composition as a result of water mixing in the studied area. Little is known however about the mechanisms by which spatial and temporal variability in advection affect dynamics of local populations. Ice conditions are also very important in the function of pelagic communities. Melting time is the trigger to all "plankton blooming" processes, and the duration of ice-free conditions determines the food web development in the future. Fram Strait is one of the key regions for the Arctic: the cold water outflow comes through it with the East Greenland Current and meets warm Atlantic water, the West Spitsbergen Current, producing complicated hydrological situation. During 2007 and 2008 we investigated the structure functional characteristics of zooplankton community in the Fram Strait region onboard KV "Svalbard" (April 2007, April and May 2008) and RV "Jan Mayen" (May 2007, August 2008). This study was conducted in frame of iAOOS Norway project "Closing the loop", which, in turn, was a part of IPY. During this cruises multidisciplinary investigations were performed, including sea-ice observations, CTD and ADCP profiling, carbon flux, nutrients and primary production measurements, phytoplankton sampling. Zooplankton was collected with the Hydro-Bios WP2 net and MultiNet Zooplankton Sampler, (mouth area 0.25 m2, mesh size 180 um).Samples were taken from the depth strata of 2000-1500, 1500-1000, 1000-500,500-200, 200-100, 100-60, 60-30, 30-0 m. Gut fluorescence

  15. Modeling Honey Bee Populations

    PubMed Central

    Torres, David J.; Ricoy, Ulises M.; Roybal, Shanae

    2015-01-01

    Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population. PMID:26148010

  16. If you see one, have you seen them all?: Community-wide effects of insecticide cross-resistance in zooplankton populations near and far from agriculture.

    PubMed

    Bendis, Randall J; Relyea, Rick A

    2016-08-01

    The worldwide use of pesticides has led to increases in agricultural yields by reducing crop losses. However, increased pesticide use has resulted in pesticide-resistant pest species and recent studies have discovered pesticide-resistance in non-target species living close to farms. Such increased tolerance not only affects the species, but can alter the entire food web. Given that some species can evolve not only resistance to a single pesticide, but also cross-resistance to other pesticides that share the same mode of action, one would predict that cross-resistance to pesticides would also have effects on the entire community and affect community stability. To address this hypothesis, we conducted an outdoor mesocosm experiment comprised of 200 identical aquatic communities with phytoplankton, periphyton, and leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) tadpoles. To these communities, we added one of four Daphnia pulex populations that we previously discovered were either resistant or sensitive to the insecticide of chlorpyrifos as a result of living close to or far from agriculture, respectively. We then exposed the communities to either no insecticide or three different concentrations of AChE-inhibiting insecticides (chlorpyrifos, malathion or carbaryl) or sodium channel-inhibiting insecticides (permethrin or cypermethrin). We discovered that communities containing sensitive Daphnia pulex experienced phytoplankton blooms and subsequent cascades through all trophic groups including amphibians at moderate to high concentrations of all five insecticides. However, communities containing resistant D. pulex were buffered from these effects at low to moderate concentrations of all AChE-inhibiting insecticides, but were not buffered against the pyrethroid insecticides. These data suggest that a simple change in the population-level resistance of zooplankton to a single insecticide can have widespread consequences for community stability and that the effects can be extrapolated

  17. Zooplankton mortality in 3D ecosystem modelling considering variable spatial-temporal fish consumptions in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maar, Marie; Rindorf, Anna; Møller, Eva Friis; Christensen, Asbjørn; Madsen, Kristine S.; van Deurs, Mikael

    2014-05-01

    We tested the feasibility of imposing mesozooplankton mortality into a 3D model based on estimated consumption rates of the dominant planktivorous fish in the North Sea-Kattegat area. The spatial biomass distribution of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), sandeel (Ammodytidae) and European sprat (Sprattus sprattus) was derived from quarterly scientific trawl surveys and Danish commercial catches. Spatio-temporal indices of mortality were created based on the estimated biomasses and ingestion rates from the literature. The fish larvae grazing pressure was obtained from a spatial, size-based larval community model. In this model, larvae, herring and sandeel were the most important fish predators on mesozooplankton, but these groups had different spatial and temporal (seasonal) distributions. Fish larvae were particularly dominant in the eastern and southern areas in early summer. Herring and sandeel had the highest consumption in the central and north-western areas and were more important in late summer. The fish index changed the perceived annual, seasonal and spatial patterns in modelled mesozooplankton biomass, production and mortality. In the present study, the index was kept relatively simple and can be further developed with respect to the description of fish as well carnivorous zooplankton ingestion rates. The data input required to create the fish index is (i) planktivorous fish stock biomasses and (ii) relative fish spawning distribution information and (iii) physics (ocean currents and temperatures) for the region and situation of interest. The fish index seems promising as a realistic mortality term for lower trophic levels in 3D ecosystem models in areas with available data on fish stocks to improve management of marine resources.

  18. The organization of zooplankton epibiont communities.

    PubMed

    Threlkeld, S T; Chiavelli, D A; Willey, R L

    1993-09-01

    Recent findings suggest that a diverse set of interactions exists between crustacean zooplankton and the algae, protozoans and metazoans that live attached to them. The frequent molting of the crustacean exoskeleton keeps these epibiont populations in a state of constant renewal and makes this epibiont community an ideal experimental system for examining the organization of communities whose populations are distributed among ephemeral habitat patches. PMID:21236181

  19. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  20. Modelling the population dynamics of Calanus in the Fair Isle current of northern Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heath, M.; Robertson, W.; Mardaljevic, J.; Gurney, W. S. G.

    1997-12-01

    The population dynamics of a marine zooplankton species in the Fair Isle Current off northern Scotland have been investigated by modelling and field study. An age- and weight-structured model of a population of the copepods Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus was embedded in a biomass based ecosystem model comprising nutrients, phytoplankton, and other non- Calanus zooplankton. The model was configured to represent a Lagrangian water column drifting in the Fair Isle Current off the north of Scotland during June 1988, with physical characteristics derived from the results of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the northwest European shelf. The time-series results from the model were compared to data from a semi-synoptic field study by assuming the system to be short-term steady state and transposing the spatially resolved field observations into pseudo-time series along the modelled column drift track. The hydrodynamic model correctly reproduced the general physical characteristics of the system which were destratification of an initially stratified water column as a result of advection through a tidally energetic mixing zone, and subsequent re-establishment of stratification with distance downstream. The biological components of the model were broadly successful at reproducing the main features of the phytoplankton biomass response to the physical processes. The field data indicated that, despite the short-term changes in phytoplankton abundance along the drift track, the stage composition and biomass of the Calanus population was relatively stable. However, the model revealed that the main diagnostic features of the response were at the individual level, reflected in the weight at age distribution and reproductive output. The study highlights the difficulty of obtaining adequate data for testing complex models of zooplankton responses to short-term spatio-temporal variations in physical forcing.

  1. The ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology: Accomplishments of the first 25 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, Peter H.; Harris, Roger; Gislason, Astthor; Margonski, Piotr; Skjoldal, Hein Rune; Benfield, Mark; Hay, Steve; O'Brien, Todd; Valdés, Luis

    2016-02-01

    The ICES Study Group on Zooplankton Ecology was created in 1991 to address issues of current and future concern within the field of zooplankton ecology. Within three years it became the ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology (ICES WGZE) and this unique group in the world's oceanographic community has now been active for 25 years. This article reviews and synthesizes the products, and major accomplishments of the group. Achievements of the group, including the Zooplankton Methodology Manual, the Zooplankton Status Reports, and the International Zooplankton Symposia, have had an important impact on the wider field. Among the future issues that remain to be addressed by the group are the assessment of exploratory fisheries on zooplankton and micronekton species; further development of the zooplankton time-series; compilation and integration of allometric relationships for zooplankton species, and evaluation of new methodologies for the study of zooplankton distribution, abundance, physiology, and genetics. Marine science is an increasingly global undertaking and groups such as the ICES WGZE will continue to be essential to the advancement of understanding of zooplankton community structure and population dynamics in the world's oceans.

  2. Zooplankton of West Madagascar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bemiasa, John; Remanevy, Sitraka

    2014-05-01

    During six week survey (August - October 2009) in Western and Northern coast of Madagascar, the R/V 'Dr. Fridtjof Nansen' has carried out a study of the pelagic ecosystem. In collaboration with Agulhas & Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystems project (ASCLME) and South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Project (SWIOFP), the aim of the survey was to establish the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Western Madagascar shelf region as a whole. Zooplankton samples were collected with Hydrobios Multinet at all environmental stations ranging from 200 m depth to the surface. The Multinet was equipped with 5 nets for depth-stratified sampling. The nets were fitted with 180 µm mesh size and the water flow through the nets was measured. The Multinet was deployed and retrieved at a rate of ~ 1.5 m per second and was obliquely hauled. The five nets were triggered at the pre-selected depth intervals 0-25m, 25-50m, 50-80m, 80-120m and 120-200m. All samples were stored in marked bottles and preserved with buffered formaldehyde of 4% for further analysis. As results,the zooplankton abundance was influenced by physico-chemical factors. During the study period 34 Family of zooplankton were identified which are dominated by Copepoda (58,69%) followed by Radiolaria (12,06%), Appendicularia (6,47%), Sagitta (5,11%), Larvae (4,57%), Ostracoda (3,13%), pelagic Foraminifera (2,15%). Family of zooplankton with abundance <1% were also recorded, namely Salpidae (0,94%), Euphausiacea (0,44%), Tintinnidae (0,39%), Annélidae Polychètes (0,34%), Mysidacea (0,21%), Ptéropodae (0,13%). Highest number of zooplankton were found at the depth below the maximum of fluorescence during the day. Copepods distribution depends on site and depth. During this study, the number of identified species is always superior to 50 for all sampling sites. The findings of the present study will help to improve the scientific knowledge of the marine ecosystem of the west coast of Madagascar.

  3. Rapid local adaptation mediates zooplankton community assembly in experimental mesocosms.

    PubMed

    Pantel, Jelena H; Duvivier, Cathy; Meester, Luc De

    2015-10-01

    Adaptive evolution can occur over similar timescales as ecological processes such as community assembly, but its particular effects on community assembly and structure and their magnitude are poorly understood. In experimental evolution trials, Daphnia magna were exposed to varying environments (presence and absence of fish and artificial macrophytes) for 2 months. Then, in a common gardening experiment, we compared zooplankton community composition when either experimentally adapted or D. magna from the original population were present. Local adaptation of D. magna significantly altered zooplankton community composition, leading to a suppression of abundances for some zooplankton taxa and facilitation for others. The effect size of D. magna adaptation was similar to that of adding fish or macrophytes to mesocosms, two important drivers of zooplankton community structure. Our results suggest that substantial amounts of variation in community composition in natural systems may be unexplained if evolutionary dynamics are ignored. PMID:26251339

  4. Estimating In Situ Zooplankton Non-Predation Mortality in an Oligo-Mesotrophic Lake from Sediment Trap Data: Caveats and Reality Check

    PubMed Central

    Dubovskaya, Olga P.; Tang, Kam W.; Gladyshev, Michail I.; Kirillin, Georgiy; Buseva, Zhanna; Kasprzak, Peter; Tolomeev, Aleksandr P.; Grossart, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Background Mortality is a main driver in zooplankton population biology but it is poorly constrained in models that describe zooplankton population dynamics, food web interactions and nutrient dynamics. Mortality due to non-predation factors is often ignored even though anecdotal evidence of non-predation mass mortality of zooplankton has been reported repeatedly. One way to estimate non-predation mortality rate is to measure the removal rate of carcasses, for which sinking is the primary removal mechanism especially in quiescent shallow water bodies. Objectives and Results We used sediment traps to quantify in situ carcass sinking velocity and non-predation mortality rate on eight consecutive days in 2013 for the cladoceran Bosmina longirostris in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin; the outcomes were compared against estimates derived from in vitro carcass sinking velocity measurements and an empirical model correcting in vitro sinking velocity for turbulence resuspension and microbial decomposition of carcasses. Our results show that the latter two approaches produced unrealistically high mortality rates of 0.58-1.04 d-1, whereas the sediment trap approach, when used properly, yielded a mortality rate estimate of 0.015 d-1, which is more consistent with concurrent population abundance data and comparable to physiological death rate from the literature. Ecological implications Zooplankton carcasses may be exposed to water column microbes for days before entering the benthos; therefore, non-predation mortality affects not only zooplankton population dynamics but also microbial and benthic food webs. This would be particularly important for carbon and nitrogen cycles in systems where recurring mid-summer decline of zooplankton population due to non-predation mortality is observed. PMID:26146995

  5. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  6. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  7. Can microcystins affect zooplankton structure community in tropical eutrophic reservoirs?

    PubMed

    Paes, T A S V; Costa, I A S; Silva, A P C; Eskinazi-Sant'Anna, E M

    2016-06-01

    The aim of our study was to assess whether cyanotoxins (microcystins) can affect the composition of the zooplankton community, leading to domination of microzooplankton forms (protozoans and rotifers). Temporal variations in concentrations of microcystins and zooplankton biomass were analyzed in three eutrophic reservoirs in the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil. The concentration of microcystins in water proved to be correlated with the cyanobacterial biovolume, indicating the contributions from colonial forms such as Microcystis in the production of cyanotoxins. At the community level, the total biomass of zooplankton was not correlated with the concentration of microcystin (r2 = 0.00; P > 0.001), but in a population-level analysis, the biomass of rotifers and cladocerans showed a weak positive correlation. Cyclopoid copepods, which are considered to be relatively inefficient in ingesting cyanobacteria, were negatively correlated (r2 = - 0.01; P > 0.01) with the concentration of cyanotoxins. Surprisingly, the biomass of calanoid copepods was positively correlated with the microcystin concentration (r2 = 0.44; P > 0.001). The results indicate that allelopathic control mechanisms (negative effects of microcystin on zooplankton biomass) do not seem to substantially affect the composition of mesozooplankton, which showed a constant and high biomass compared to the microzooplankton (rotifers). These results may be important to better understand the trophic interactions between zooplankton and cyanobacteria and the potential effects of allelopathic compounds on zooplankton. PMID:26959954

  8. The zooplankton of the north sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fransz, H. G.; Colebrook, J. M.; Gamble, J. C.; Krause, M.

    This review summarizes available knowledge on herbivorous and omnivorous zooplankton of the North Sea. After an introductory chapter on history and general approach of zooplankton studies, the four main contributions review distribution patterns, cycles and trends in temporal variation, trophic interactions and population dyamics and production. The distribution of zooplankton species in relation to hydrography and origin of watermasses is described for copepods. It highlights the influence of Atlantic Ocean influx from the northwest, which to a large extent dominates the species composition and its seasonal variation in the summer-stratified waters. In contrast, the more neritic communities in the southeast region mainly depend on the local populations of the species abundant in coastal mixed waters. The chapter on cycles and trends in temporal variation discusses the differences in seasonal variation with respect to species, area, and community structure in terms of herbivores, omnivores and carnivores. The year-to-year changes are considered as dependent on the overwintering stocks and strategies. Patterns in long-term variation appearing from long-term data series are related to climatic changes, leading to two hypotheses with respect to the effects of changes in wind regime. The chapter on trophic interactions deals with the utilization of primary particulate production by planktonic herbivores and its variation in time and space. Emphasis is put on differences between north and south, which are partly due to differences in species composition, community structure and seasonal variation already discussed in foregoing chapters. The various aspects of copepod grazing are reviewed, but also the role of microzooplankton as both grazers and food organisms is brought to attention. The last chapter deals with population dynamics and production of key species. Seasonal fluctuations in abundance and biomass are discussed and related to underlying population processes

  9. Biodiversity and ecosystem function in the Gulf of Maine: pattern and role of zooplankton and pelagic nekton.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Catherine L; Runge, Jeffrey A; Curtis, K Alexandra; Durbin, Edward G; Hare, Jonathan A; Incze, Lewis S; Link, Jason S; Melvin, Gary D; O'Brien, Todd D; Van Guelpen, Lou

    2011-01-01

    This paper forms part of a broader overview of biodiversity of marine life in the Gulf of Maine area (GoMA), facilitated by the GoMA Census of Marine Life program. It synthesizes current data on species diversity of zooplankton and pelagic nekton, including compilation of observed species and descriptions of seasonal, regional and cross-shelf diversity patterns. Zooplankton diversity in the GoMA is characterized by spatial differences in community composition among the neritic environment, the coastal shelf, and deep offshore waters. Copepod diversity increased with depth on the Scotian Shelf. On the coastal shelf of the western Gulf of Maine, the number of higher-level taxonomic groups declined with distance from shore, reflecting more nearshore meroplankton. Copepod diversity increased in late summer, and interdecadal diversity shifts were observed, including a period of higher diversity in the 1990s. Changes in species diversity were greatest on interannual scales, intermediate on seasonal scales, and smallest across regions, in contrast to abundance patterns, suggesting that zooplankton diversity may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to inter annual climate variation than zoo plankton abundance. Local factors such as bathymetry, proximity of the coast, and advection probably drive zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity patterns in the GoMA, while ocean-basin scale diversity patterns probably contribute to the increase in diversity at the Scotian Shelf break, a zone of mixing between the cold-temperate community of the shelf and the warm-water community offshore. Pressing research needs include establishment of a comprehensive system for observing change in zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity, enhanced observations of "underknown" but important functional components of the ecosystem, population and metapopulation studies, and development of analytical modeling tools to enhance understanding of diversity patterns and drivers. Ultimately

  10. Quantifying Preferences and Responsiveness of Marine Zooplankton to Changing Environmental Conditions using Microfluidics

    PubMed Central

    Merten, Christoph A.; Arendt, Detlev

    2015-01-01

    Global environmental change significantly affects marine species composition. However, analyzing the impact of these changes on marine zooplankton communities was so far mostly limited to assessing lethal doses through mortality assays and hence did not allow a direct assessment of the preferred conditions, or preferendum. Here, we use a microfluidic device to characterize individual behavior of actively swimming zooplankton, and to quantitatively determine their ecological preferendum. For the annelid zooplankton model Platynereis dumerilii we observe a broader pH preferendum than for the copepod Euterpina acutifrons, and reveal previously unrecognized sub-populations with different pH preferenda. For Platynereis, the minimum concentration difference required to elicit a response (responsiveness) is ~1 μM for H+ and ~13.7 mM for NaCl. Furthermore, using laser ablations we show that olfactomedin-expressing sensory cells mediate chemical responsiveness in the Platynereis foregut. Taken together, our microfluidic approach allows precise assessment and functional understanding of environmental perception on planktonic behaviour. PMID:26517120

  11. Quantifying Preferences and Responsiveness of Marine Zooplankton to Changing Environmental Conditions using Microfluidics.

    PubMed

    Ramanathan, Nirupama; Simakov, Oleg; Merten, Christoph A; Arendt, Detlev

    2015-01-01

    Global environmental change significantly affects marine species composition. However, analyzing the impact of these changes on marine zooplankton communities was so far mostly limited to assessing lethal doses through mortality assays and hence did not allow a direct assessment of the preferred conditions, or preferendum. Here, we use a microfluidic device to characterize individual behavior of actively swimming zooplankton, and to quantitatively determine their ecological preferendum. For the annelid zooplankton model Platynereis dumerilii we observe a broader pH preferendum than for the copepod Euterpina acutifrons, and reveal previously unrecognized sub-populations with different pH preferenda. For Platynereis, the minimum concentration difference required to elicit a response (responsiveness) is ~1 μM for H+ and ~13.7 mM for NaCl. Furthermore, using laser ablations we show that olfactomedin-expressing sensory cells mediate chemical responsiveness in the Platynereis foregut. Taken together, our microfluidic approach allows precise assessment and functional understanding of environmental perception on planktonic behaviour. PMID:26517120

  12. Modeling Political Populations with Bacteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, Chris; Liao, David

    2011-03-01

    Results from lattice-based simulations of micro-environments with heterogeneous nutrient resources reveal that competition between wild-type and GASP rpoS819 strains of E. Coli offers mutual benefit, particularly in nutrient deprived regions. Our computational model spatially maps bacteria populations and energy sources onto a set of 3D lattices that collectively resemble the topology of North America. By implementing Wright-Fishcer re- production into a probabilistic leap-frog scheme, we observe populations of wild-type and GASP rpoS819 cells compete for resources and, yet, aid each other's long term survival. The connection to how spatial political ideologies map in a similar way is discussed.

  13. Planktivory in the changing Lake Huron zooplankton community: Bythotrephes consumption exceeds that of Mysis and fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunnell, D.B.; Davis, B.M.; Warner, D.M.; Chriscinske, M.A.; Roseman, E.F.

    2011-01-01

    Oligotrophic lakes are generally dominated by calanoid copepods because of their competitive advantage over cladocerans at low prey densities. Planktivory also can alter zooplankton community structure. We sought to understand the role of planktivory in driving recent changes to the zooplankton community of Lake Huron, a large oligotrophic lake on the border of Canada and the United States. We tested the hypothesis that excessive predation by fish (rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, bloater Coregonus hoyi) and invertebrates (Mysis relicta, Bythotrephes longimanus) had driven observed declines in cladoceran and cyclopoid copepod biomass between 2002 and 2007. We used a field sampling and bioenergetics modelling approach to generate estimates of daily consumption by planktivores at two 91-m depth sites in northern Lake Huron, U.S.A., for each month, May-October 2007. Daily consumption was compared to daily zooplankton production. Bythotrephes was the dominant planktivore and estimated to have eaten 78% of all zooplankton consumed. Bythotrephes consumption exceeded total zooplankton production between July and October. Mysis consumed 19% of all the zooplankton consumed and exceeded zooplankton production in October. Consumption by fish was relatively unimportant - eating only 3% of all zooplankton consumed. Because Bythotrephes was so important, we explored other consumption estimation methods that predict lower Bythotrephes consumption. Under this scenario, Mysis was the most important planktivore, and Bythotrephes consumption exceeded zooplankton production only in August. Our results provide no support for the hypothesis that excessive fish consumption directly contributed to the decline of cladocerans and cyclopoid copepods in Lake Huron. Rather, they highlight the importance of invertebrate planktivores in structuring zooplankton communities, especially for those foods webs that have both Bythotrephes and Mysis. Together, these species occupy the epi-, meta- and

  14. Modelling nova populations in galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hai-Liang; Woods, T. E.; Yungelson, L. R.; Gilfanov, M.; Han, Zhanwen

    2016-05-01

    Theoretical modelling of the evolution of classical and recurrent novae plays an important role in studies of binary evolution, nucleosynthesis and accretion physics. However, from a theoretical perspective the observed statistical properties of novae remain poorly understood. In this paper, we have produced model populations of novae using a hybrid binary population synthesis approach for differing star formation histories (SFHs): a starburst case (elliptical-like galaxies), a constant star formation rate case (spiral-like galaxies) and a composite case (in line with the inferred SFH for M31). We found that the nova rate at 10 Gyr in an elliptical-like galaxy is ˜10-20 times smaller than a spiral-like galaxy with the same mass. The majority of novae in elliptical-like galaxies at the present epoch are characterized by low-mass white dwarfs (WDs), long decay times, relatively faint absolute magnitudes and long recurrence periods. In contrast, the majority of novae in spiral-like galaxies at 10 Gyr have massive WDs, short decay times, are relatively bright and have short recurrence periods. The mass-loss time distribution for novae in our M31-like galaxy is in agreement with observational data for Andromeda. However, it is possible that we underestimate the number of bright novae in our model. This may arise in part due to the present uncertainties in the appropriate bolometric correction for novae.

  15. A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milroy, Scott P.; Dieterle, Dwight A.; He, Ruoying; Kirkpatrick, Gary J.; Lester, Kristen M.; Steidinger, Karen A.; Vargo, Gabriel A.; Walsh, John J.; Weisberg, Robert H.

    2008-01-01

    The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L -1) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2×10 6 cells L -1 in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 μE m -2 s -1 isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L -1. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model

  16. Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, C.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Moriarty, R.; Alvain, S.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Chollet, S.; Enright, C.; Franklin, D. J.; Geider, R. J.; Harrison, S. P.; Hirst, A.; Larsen, S.; Legendre, L.; Platt, T.; Prentice, I. C.; Rivkin, R. B.; Sathyendranath, S.; Stephens, N.; Vogt, M.; Sailley, S.; Vallina, S. M.

    2015-07-01

    Global ocean biogeochemistry models currently employed in climate change projections use highly simplified representations of pelagic food webs. These food webs do not necessarily include critical pathways by which ecosystems interact with ocean biogeochemistry and climate. Here we present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types (PFTs); six types of phytoplankton, three types of zooplankton, and heterotrophic bacteria. We improved the representation of zooplankton dynamics in our model through (a) the explicit inclusion of large, slow-growing zooplankton, and (b) the introduction of trophic cascades among the three zooplankton types. We use the model to quantitatively assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region during summer. When model simulations do not represent crustacean macrozooplankton grazing, they systematically overestimate Southern Ocean chlorophyll biomass during the summer, even when there was no iron deposition from dust. When model simulations included the developments of the zooplankton component, the simulation of phytoplankton biomass improved and the high chlorophyll summer bias in the Southern Ocean HNLC region largely disappeared. Our model results suggest that the observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community rather than iron limitation. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean.

  17. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  18. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  19. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  20. Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Zooplankton Community of Phosphorescent Bay, Puerto Rico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rios-Jara, E.

    1998-06-01

    Nocturnal variations of zooplankton abundance and hydrographic conditions were examined at three locations (centre, north shore and south shore) in Phosphorescent Bay, Puerto Rico, from May 1992 through April 1993. Seven taxa accounted for approximately 96% of the annual mean zooplankton abundance: Oithonaspp. (43·5%), Acartia tonsa(31·5%), copepod nauplii (8·8%), Paracalanusspp.(6·7%), gastropod veligers (2·5%), larvaceans (1·7%) and Pseudo-diaptomus cokeri(1·6%). Copepods dominated numerically throughout the year and comprised 94·3% of total zooplankton. Higher abundance of zooplankton (mean±1 SD=252 259±176 797 individuals m -3) was associated with cool water temperatures (24·9-27·4 °C) and dry conditions (0·3-2·9 cm precipitation/month) which prevailed between December and March relative to the period between April and November (warm/wet season) (mean±1 SD=59 773±26 861 individuals m -3), when temperature and precipitation were higher (27·3-30·3 °C, 3·1-20·6 cm month -1). Fluctuations of zooplankton populations, particularly copepods, followed progressive increments in chlorophyll aconcentrations. This abundance pattern was consistent at the three sampling stations. Zooplankton abundance was higher on the north shore of the bay. The taxonomic composition of zooplankton was similar at the sampling stations studied.

  1. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  2. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  3. [The population problem in global modeling].

    PubMed

    Naidenova, P

    1986-01-01

    Developments during the past 15 years in population modeling are critically reviewed. The author notes that while population variables were treated as endogenous in earlier models developed by the Club of Rome, later models have treated such variables as exogenous. The need to link demographic factors to structural changes and economic growth, in accordance with Marxist-Leninist population theory, is noted. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS) PMID:12280533

  4. Modelling population change from time series data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barker, R.J.; Sauer, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Information on change in population size over time is among the most basic inputs for population management. Unfortunately, population changes are generally difficult to identify, and once identified difficult to explain. Sources of variald (patterns) in population data include: changes in environment that affect carrying capaciyy and produce trend, autocorrelative processes, irregular environmentally induced perturbations, and stochasticity arising from population processes. In addition. populations are almost never censused and many surveys (e.g., the North American Breeding Bird Survey) produce multiple, incomplete time series of population indices, providing further sampling complications. We suggest that each source of pattern should be used to address specific hypotheses regarding population change, but that failure to correctly model each source can lead to false conclusions about the dynamics of populations. We consider hypothesis tests based on each source of pattern, and the effects of autocorrelated observations and sampling error. We identify important constraints on analyses of time series that limit their use in identifying underlying relationships.

  5. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations.

    PubMed

    Karev, G P; Kareva, I

    2016-04-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed of clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the "unobserved heterogeneity," i.e., the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of "internal population time" is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  6. Mathematical Modeling of Extinction of Inhomogeneous Populations

    PubMed Central

    Karev, G.P.; Kareva, I.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of population extinction have a variety of applications in such areas as ecology, paleontology and conservation biology. Here we propose and investigate two types of sub-exponential models of population extinction. Unlike the more traditional exponential models, the life duration of sub-exponential models is finite. In the first model, the population is assumed to be composed clones that are independent from each other. In the second model, we assume that the size of the population as a whole decreases according to the sub-exponential equation. We then investigate the “unobserved heterogeneity”, i.e. the underlying inhomogeneous population model, and calculate the distribution of frequencies of clones for both models. We show that the dynamics of frequencies in the first model is governed by the principle of minimum of Tsallis information loss. In the second model, the notion of “internal population time” is proposed; with respect to the internal time, the dynamics of frequencies is governed by the principle of minimum of Shannon information loss. The results of this analysis show that the principle of minimum of information loss is the underlying law for the evolution of a broad class of models of population extinction. Finally, we propose a possible application of this modeling framework to mechanisms underlying time perception. PMID:27090117

  7. Zooplankton community changes confound the biodilution theory of methylmercury accumulation in a recovering mercury-contaminated lake.

    PubMed

    Todorova, Svetoslava; Driscoll, Charles T; Matthews, David A; Effler, Steven W

    2015-04-01

    In this study, the biodilution hypothesis of methylmercury (MeHg) accumulation was examined in a Hg-contaminated ecosystem that has undergone concurrent changes in nutrient loading and zooplankton community composition. Using a long-term record of 17 years (between 1980 and 2009), we demonstrate that zooplankton MeHg concentrations in Onondaga Lake, NY, are strongly driven by changes in the zooplankton community and body size. MeHg concentrations in zooplankton increased with an increase in body size and biomass. The highest concentrations of MeHg were observed under eutrophic and hypereutrophic conditions when large-bodied Daphnia species, Daphnia pulicaria and Daphnia galeata mendotae, were present. Bioconcentration rather than biodilution was governing the accumulation of MeHg in zooplankton without apparent growth dilution or zooplankton biomass dilution. Algal-bloom dilution controlled the variability in the MeHg concentration only under hypereutrophic conditions when Ceriodaphnia predominated the cladoceran population. Our study demonstrates that changes in zooplankton community composition confound the biodilution theory in Onondaga Lake and that the presence of large-bodied zooplankton species drives elevated MeHg concentrations. PMID:25741879

  8. Zooplankton data: Vertical distributions of zooplankton in the Norweigian and Greenland Seas during summer, 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Lane, P.V.Z.; Smith, S.L.; Schwarting, E.M.

    1993-08-01

    Recent studies of zooplankton populations in the Greenland Sea have focused on processes at the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) and the areas immediately adjacent to it under the ice and in open water. These studies have shown a relatively short period of intense secondary productivity which is closely linked temporally and spatially to phytoplankton blooms occurring near the ice edge in spring and early summer. During the summer of 1989 we participated in a project focusing on benthic and water column processes in the basins of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas. This study allowed us to compare biological processes at the MIZ with those occurring in the open waters of the Greenland Sea, and to compare processes at both of these locations with those in the Norwegian Sea. The data presented in this report are the results of zooplankton net tows covering the upper 1000 meters of the water column over the Norwegian Sea basin and the Greenland Sea basin, and the upper 500 meters of open water adjacent to the MIZ in the Greenland Sea. Sampling was conducted between 12 and 29 July 1989.

  9. Population Modelling with M&M's[R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Several activities in which population dynamics can be modelled by tossing M&M's[R] candy are presented. Physical activities involving M&M's[R] can be modelled by difference equations and several population phenomena, including death and immigration, are studied. (Contains 1 note.)

  10. Modeling wildlife populations with HexSim

    EPA Science Inventory

    HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications including population viability analysis for on...

  11. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  12. Validation of an Eulerian population model for the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alver, Morten Omholt; Broch, Ole Jacob; Melle, Webjørn; Bagøien, Espen; Slagstad, Dag

    2016-08-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is an important zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea, as a dominant food organism for pelagic fish larvae, and a potentially large source of marine lipids and proteins. Its position in the marine food web also makes it an important model species in assessing the risk posed by oil spills in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas. In this study, an Eulerian population model for C.finmarchicus, coupled to the physical and ecological model SINMOD, is presented. The model includes the full life cycle of C. finmarchicus with a representation of all developmental stages. The model has been validated against field measurements made in different areas of the Norwegian Sea in 1997 and 1998. The model displays geographical and temporal distributions of development stages that is in line with observed patterns. When comparing time series for selected regions, we see a high degree of variability both in the field samples and model output. On average, the model deviations are near half of the summed variability of the field data and model estimates. The model has applications within assessment of ecological production, and the potential for harvesting in the Norwegian and Arctic Seas, but in combination with other models, also for the assessment of ecological effects of oil spills and other types of pollution.

  13. Trajectories of zooplankton recovery in the Little Rock Lake whole-lake acidification experiment.

    PubMed

    Frost, Thomas M; Fischer, Janet M; Klug, Jennifer L; Arnott, Shelley E; Montz, Pamela K

    2006-02-01

    Understanding the factors that affect biological recovery from environmental stressors such as acidification is an important challenge in ecology. Here we report on zooplankton community recovery following the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, USA. One decade following cessation of acid additions to the northern basin of Little Rock Lake (LRL), recovery of the zooplankton community was complete. Approximately 40% of zooplankton species in the lake exhibited a recovery lag in which biological recovery to reference basin levels was delayed by 1-6 yr after pH recovered to the level at which the species originally responded. Delays in recovery such as those we observed in LRL may be attributable to "biological resistance" wherein establishment of viable populations of key acid-sensitive species following water quality improvements is prevented by other components of the community that thrived during acidification. Indeed, we observed that the recovery of species that thrived during acidification tended to precede recovery of species that declined during acidification. In addition, correspondence analysis indicated that the zooplankton community followed different pathways during acidification and recovery, suggesting that there is substantial hysteresis in zooplankton recovery from acidification. By providing an example of a relatively rapid recovery from short-term acidification, zooplankton community recovery from experimental acidification in LRL generally reinforces the positive outlook for recovery reported for other acidified lakes. PMID:16705985

  14. Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Kvile, Kristina Ø; Langangen, Øystein; Prokopchuk, Irina; Stenseth, Nils C; Stige, Leif C

    2016-02-16

    Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach. PMID:26831099

  15. Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Kvile, Kristina Ø.; Langangen, Øystein; Prokopchuk, Irina; Stenseth, Nils C.; Stige, Leif C.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach. PMID:26831099

  16. Predation by jellyfish on large and emergent zooplankton: Implications for benthic pelagic coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, Kylie A.; Clement, Anne-Laure; Connolly, Rod M.; Thibault-Botha, Delphine

    2008-03-01

    Stable carbon isotopes were used to determine the contribution of emergent demersal zooplankton to the diet of the scyphozoan jellyfish Catostylus mosaicus at Smiths Lake, New South Wales, Australia. A preliminary study in 2004 indicated that there was no difference in the δ13C of ectodermal tissue and mesoglea of the medusae. In 2005, medusae and zooplankton present during the day and night were sampled and isotopic signatures were modelled using IsoSource. Modelling indicated that: (1) mollusc veligers and copepods sampled during the day contributed <13% of the carbon to the jellyfish; (2) copepods sampled at night contributed up to 25%; and (3) the large, emergent decapod Lucifer sp. contributed 88-94%. We hypothesised, therefore, that medusae derive most of their carbon from emergent species of zooplankton. In 2006, sampling done in 2005 was repeated three times over a period of 4 weeks to measure short-term temporal variation in isotopic signatures of medusae and zooplankton, and emergent demersal zooplankton was specifically sampled using emergence traps. Short-term temporal variation in isotopic signatures was observed for some taxa, however, actual variations were small (<1.5‰) and the values of medusae and zooplankton remained consistent relative to each other. IsoSource modelling revealed that mysid shrimp and emergent copepods together contributed 79-100% of the carbon to the jellyfish, and that the maximum possible contribution of daytime copepods and molluscs was only 22%. Jellyfish apparently derive most of their carbon from emergent zooplankton and by capturing small numbers of relatively large taxa, such as Lucifer sp. or mysid shrimp. Small but abundantly captured zooplankton (such as mollusc veligers) contribute only minor amounts of carbon. Jellyfish have a major role in the transfer of carbon between benthic and pelagic food webs in coastal systems.

  17. Avoidance of strobe lights by zooplankton

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamel, Martin J.; Richards, Nathan S.; Brown, Michael L.; Chipps, Steven R.

    2010-01-01

    Underwater strobe lights can influence the behavior and distribution of fishes and are increasingly used as a technique to divert fish away from water intake structures on dams. However, few studies examine how strobe lights may affect organisms other than targeted species. To gain insight on strobe lighting effects on nontarget invertebrates, we investigated whether underwater strobe lights influence zooplankton distributions and abundance in Lake Oahe, South Dakota. Zooplankton were collected using vertical tows at 3 discrete distances from an underwater strobe light to quantify the influence of light intensity on zooplankton density. Samples were collected from 3 different depth ranges (0–10 m, 10–20 m and 20–30 m) at <1 m, 15 m and ⩾100 m distance intervals away from the strobe light. Copepods represented 67.2% and Daphnia spp. represented 23.3% of all zooplankton sampled from 17 August to 15 September 2004. Night time zooplankton densities significantly decreased in surface waters when strobe lights were activated. Copepods exhibited the greatest avoidance patterns, while Daphnia avoidance varied throughout sampling depths. These results indicate that zooplankton display negative phototaxic behavior to strobe lights and that researchers must be cognizant of potential effects to the ecosystem such as altering predator–prey interactions or affecting zooplankton distribution and growth.

  18. Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

    PubMed

    Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

    2015-06-01

    We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. PMID:25494697

  19. Effect of advection on variations in zooplankton at a single location near Cabo Nazca, Peru

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S L; Brink, K H; Santander, H; Cowles, T J; Huyer, A

    1980-04-01

    Temporal variations in the biomass and species composition of zooplankton at a single midshelf station in an upwelling area off Peru can be explained to a large extent by onshore-offshore advection in the upper 20 m of the water column. During periods of strong or sustained near-surface onshore flow, peaks in biomass of zooplankton were observed at midshelf and typically oceanic species of copepod were collected. In periods of offshore flow at the surface, a copepod capable of migrating into oxygen-depleted layers deeper than 30 m was collected. A simple translocation model of advection applied to the cross-shelf distribution of Paracalanus parvus suggests that the fluctuations in P. pavus observed in the midshelf time-series were closely related to onshore-offshore flow in the upper 20 m. Fluctuations in abundance of the numerically dominant copepod, Acartia tonsa, were apparently affected by near surface flow also. The population age-structure suggests that A. tonsa was growing at maximal rates, due in part to its positive feeding response to the dinoflagellate/diatom assemblage of phytoplankton.

  20. Ecosystem model-based approach for modelling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belharet, M.; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2015-06-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of uptake from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the some data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about two to four orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 10-2 μGy h-1, and was, therefore, lower than the 10 μGy h-1 benchmark value defined in the ERICA assessment approach from which a measurable effect on the marine biota can be observed.

  1. The Career Counseling with Underserved Populations Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pope, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Providing effective career counseling to culturally diverse individuals is not the same as helping those from majority cultures. The Career Counseling With Underserved Populations model aids career counselors in supporting underserved populations as they strive to address their important career counseling issues.

  2. Investigating Population Heterogeneity With Factor Mixture Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubke, Gitta H.; Muthen, Bengt

    2005-01-01

    Sources of population heterogeneity may or may not be observed. If the sources of heterogeneity are observed (e.g., gender), the sample can be split into groups and the data analyzed with methods for multiple groups. If the sources of population heterogeneity are unobserved, the data can be analyzed with latent class models. Factor mixture models…

  3. Next Generation Sequencing Reveals the Hidden Diversity of Zooplankton Assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Harmer, Rachel A.; Somerfield, Paul J.; Atkinson, Angus

    2013-01-01

    Background Zooplankton play an important role in our oceans, in biogeochemical cycling and providing a food source for commercially important fish larvae. However, difficulties in correctly identifying zooplankton hinder our understanding of their roles in marine ecosystem functioning, and can prevent detection of long term changes in their community structure. The advent of massively parallel next generation sequencing technology allows DNA sequence data to be recovered directly from whole community samples. Here we assess the ability of such sequencing to quantify richness and diversity of a mixed zooplankton assemblage from a productive time series site in the Western English Channel. Methodology/Principle Findings Plankton net hauls (200 µm) were taken at the Western Channel Observatory station L4 in September 2010 and January 2011. These samples were analysed by microscopy and metagenetic analysis of the 18S nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene using the 454 pyrosequencing platform. Following quality control a total of 419,041 sequences were obtained for all samples. The sequences clustered into 205 operational taxonomic units using a 97% similarity cut-off. Allocation of taxonomy by comparison with the National Centre for Biotechnology Information database identified 135 OTUs to species level, 11 to genus level and 1 to order, <2.5% of sequences were classified as unknowns. By comparison a skilled microscopic analyst was able to routinely enumerate only 58 taxonomic groups. Conclusions Metagenetics reveals a previously hidden taxonomic richness, especially for Copepoda and hard-to-identify meroplankton such as Bivalvia, Gastropoda and Polychaeta. It also reveals rare species and parasites. We conclude that Next Generation Sequencing of 18S amplicons is a powerful tool for elucidating the true diversity and species richness of zooplankton communities. While this approach allows for broad diversity assessments of plankton it may become increasingly

  4. A Population Health Model for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pitcher, Hugh M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents the initial results of a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to include population health status.

  5. Modeling Small Stellar Populations Using Starburst99

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazquez, Gerardo Arturo; Leitherer, Claus

    2015-08-01

    Stellar populations synthesis models have proven to be excellent tools to learn about galaxy evolution. However, modeling small stellar populations (lower than 105 M⊙) has been an intriguing and continuous to be a field of intensive research. In this work, we have developed a new approach to form stars from clusters first, where massive stars are formed from fractions of mass of small stellar clusters. This new approximation is based on the empirical power law (mc-2) for the mass function of clusters between 20-1100 M⊙ found in recent years and the maximum stellar mass that can be formed in a cluster. Incorporating this new approach to form clusters has made us upgrade the way we integrate the stellar properties and the way that the isochrone is produced with a new technique. To produce the new models we have used the most recent version of Starburst99 that incorporates the most recent stellar evolution models with rotation. On the verge of solving nearby stellar populations and observing small stellar populations across the universe, this new approach brings a new scope on trying to disentangle the nature of hyper and supermassive stars in small stellar populations. In this work we present this new approach and the results when these models are applied to very energetic stellar populations such as the cluster in NGC 3603. Our most important result is that we have modeled the ionizing power of this cluster and some others by forming enough supermassive stars in a cluster of ~104 M⊙.

  6. Population-expression models of immune response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stromberg, Sean P.; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-06-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable.

  7. Potential acidification impacts on zooplankton in CCS leakage scenarios.

    PubMed

    Halsband, Claudia; Kurihara, Haruko

    2013-08-30

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies involve localized acidification of significant volumes of seawater, inhabited mainly by planktonic species. Knowledge on potential impacts of these techniques on the survival and physiology of zooplankton, and subsequent consequences for ecosystem health in targeted areas, is scarce. The recent literature has a focus on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, leading to enhanced absorption of CO2 by the oceans and a lowered seawater pH, termed ocean acidification. These studies explore the effects of changes in seawater chemistry, as predicted by climate models for the end of this century, on marine biota. Early studies have used unrealistically severe CO2/pH values in this context, but are relevant for CCS leakage scenarios. Little studied meso- and bathypelagic species of the deep sea may be especially vulnerable, as well as vertically migrating zooplankton, which require significant residence times at great depths as part of their life cycle. PMID:23632089

  8. Simple models for reading neuronal population codes.

    PubMed Central

    Seung, H S; Sompolinsky, H

    1993-01-01

    In many neural systems, sensory information is distributed throughout a population of neurons. We study simple neural network models for extracting this information. The inputs to the networks are the stochastic responses of a population of sensory neurons tuned to directional stimuli. The performance of each network model in psychophysical tasks is compared with that of the optimal maximum likelihood procedure. As a model of direction estimation in two dimensions, we consider a linear network that computes a population vector. Its performance depends on the width of the population tuning curves and is maximal for width, which increases with the level of background activity. Although for narrowly tuned neurons the performance of the population vector is significantly inferior to that of maximum likelihood estimation, the difference between the two is small when the tuning is broad. For direction discrimination, we consider two models: a perceptron with fully adaptive weights and a network made by adding an adaptive second layer to the population vector network. We calculate the error rates of these networks after exhaustive training to a particular direction. By testing on the full range of possible directions, the extent of transfer of training to novel stimuli can be calculated. It is found that for threshold linear networks the transfer of perceptual learning is nonmonotonic. Although performance deteriorates away from the training stimulus, it peaks again at an intermediate angle. This nonmonotonicity provides an important psychophysical test of these models. PMID:8248166

  9. Population changes: contemporary models and theories.

    PubMed

    Sauvy, A

    1981-01-01

    In many developing countries rapid population growth has promoted a renewed interest in the study of the effect of population growth on economic development. This research takes either the macroeconomic viewpoint, where the nation is the framework, or the microeconomic perspective, where the family is the framework. For expository purposes, the macroeconomic viewpoint is assumed, and an example of such an investment is presented. Attention is directed to the following: a simplified model--housing; the lessons learned from experience (primitive populations, Spain in the 17th and 18th centuries, comparing development in Spain and Italy, 19th century Western Europe, and underdeveloped countries); the positive factors of population growth; and the concept of the optimal rate of growth. Housing is the typical investment that an individual makes. Hence, the housing per person (roughly 1/3 of the necessary amount of housing per family) is taken as a unit, and the calculations are made using averages. The conclusion is that growth is expensive. A population decrease might be advantageous, for this decrease would enable the entire population to benefit from past capital accumulation. It is also believed, "a priori," that population growth is more expensive for a developed than for a developing country. This belief may be attributable to the fact that the capital per person tends to be high in the developed countries. Any further increase in the population requires additional capital investments, driving this ratio even higher. Yet, investment is not the only factor inhibiting economic development. The literature describes factors regarding population growth, yet this writer prefers to emphasize 2 other factors that have been the subject of less study: a growing population's ease of adaptation and the human factor--behavior. A growing population adapts better to new conditions than does a stationary or declining population, and contrary to "a priori" belief, a growing

  10. Design issues for population growth models

    PubMed Central

    López Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodríguez, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244

  11. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  12. Effects of the ``Amoco Cadiz'' oil spill on zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samain, J. F.; Moal, J.; Coum, A.; Le Coz, J. R.; Daniel, J. Y.

    1980-03-01

    A survey of zooplankton physiology on the northern coast of Brittany (France) was carried out over a one-year period by comparing two estuarine areas, one oil-polluted area (Aber Benoit) following the oil spill by the tanker “Amoco Cadiz” and one non-oil-polluted area (Rade de Brest). A new approach to an ecological survey was made by describing trophic relationships using analysis of digestive enzyme equipment (amylase and trypsin) of zooplankton organisms, mesoplankton populations and some selected species. These measurements allowed determination of (a) groups of populations with homogeneous trophic and faunistic characteristics and (b) groups of species with homogeneous trophic characteristics. The study of the appearance of these groups over a one-year period revealed the succession of populations and their adaptation to the environment on the basis of biochemical analysis. These phenomena observed in the compared areas showed marked differences in the most polluted areas during the productive spring period. Specific treatment of the data using unusual correlations between digestive enzymes is discussed in terms of the immediate effect on the whole population and on a copepod ( Anomalocera patersoni) living in the upper 10 cm.

  13. Model for Mutation in Bacterial Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donangelo, R.; Fort, H.

    2002-07-01

    We describe the evolution of E. coli populations through a Bak-Sneppen-type model which incorporates random mutations. We show that, for a value of the mutation level which coincides with the one estimated from experiments, this model reproduces the measures of mean fitness relative to that of a common ancestor, performed for over 10 000 bacterial generations.

  14. PM POPULATION EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The overall objective of this study is the development of a refined probabilistic exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) suitable for predicting PM10 and PM2.5 population exposures. This modeling research will be conducted both in-house by EPA scientists and through...

  15. Globular Cluster Colors Versus Population Synthesis Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barmby, Pauline; Jalilian, F. F.

    2011-05-01

    Although the stellar populations of globular clusters are not as simple as we used to believe, they are still the simplest populations available in the nearby universe. As such, they are extremely useful for testing stellar population synthesis models. Using recent mass estimates for Local Group globular clusters, we have compiled a sample of clusters with masses large enough that stochastic effects on integrated photometry should be minimal. We have measured integrated colors in the Spitzer/IRAC bands for as many of these as possible, paying careful attention to systematics in order to get the most accurate colors. We present a comparison of the results with the predictions of the latest generation of population synthesis models, including GALEV and FSPS. Support for this work was provided by a Discovery Grant and an Undergraduate Summer Research Award from NSERC and by an Ontario Early Researcher Award.

  16. Bayesian population modeling of drug dosing adherence.

    PubMed

    Fellows, Kelly; Stoneking, Colin J; Ramanathan, Murali

    2015-10-01

    Adherence is a frequent contributing factor to variations in drug concentrations and efficacy. The purpose of this work was to develop an integrated population model to describe variation in adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence to dosing regimens. The hybrid Markov chain-von Mises method for modeling adherence in individual subjects was extended to the population setting using a Bayesian approach. Four integrated population models for overall adherence, the two-state Markov chain transition parameters, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were formulated and critically compared. The Markov chain-Monte Carlo algorithm was used for identifying distribution parameters and for simulations. The model was challenged with medication event monitoring system data for 207 hypertension patients. The four Bayesian models demonstrated good mixing and convergence characteristics. The distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were markedly non-normal and diverse. The models varied in complexity and the method used to incorporate inter-dependence with the preceding dose in the two-state Markov chain. The model that incorporated a cooperativity term for inter-dependence and a hyperbolic parameterization of the transition matrix probabilities was identified as the preferred model over the alternatives. The simulated probability densities from the model satisfactorily fit the observed probability distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence parameters in the sample patients. The model also adequately described the median and observed quartiles for these parameters. The Bayesian model for adherence provides a parsimonious, yet integrated, description of adherence in populations. It may find potential applications in clinical trial simulations and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. PMID:26319548

  17. Expanding clinical applications of population pharmacodynamic modelling

    PubMed Central

    Minto, Charles; Schnider, Thomas

    1998-01-01

    Population pharmacokinetics or pharmacodynamics is the study of the variability in drug concentration or pharmacological effect between individuals when standard dosage regimens are administered. We provide an overview of pharmacokinetic models, pharmacodynamic models, population models and residual error models. We outline how population modelling approaches seek to explain interpatient variability with covariate analysis, and, in some approaches, to characterize the unexplained interindividual variability. The interpretation of the results of population modelling approaches is facilitated by shifting the emphasis from the perspective of the modeller to the perspective of the clinician. Both the explained and unexplained interpatient variability should be presented in terms of their impact on the dose–response relationship. Clinically relevant questions relating to the explained and unexplained variability in the population can be posed to the model, and confidence intervals can be obtained for the fraction of the population that is estimated to fall within a specific therapeutic range given a certain dosing regimen. Such forecasting can be used to develop optimal initial dosing guidelines. The development of population models (with random effects) permits the application of Bayes’s formula to obtain improved estimates of an individual’s pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters in the light of observed responses. An important challenge to clinical pharmacology is to identify the drugs that might benefit from such adaptive-control-with-feedback dosing strategies. Drugs used for life threatening diseases with a proven pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationship, a small therapeutic range, large interindividual variability, small interoccasion variability and severe adverse effects are likely to be good candidates. Rapidly evolving changes in health care economics and consumer expectations make it unlikely that traditional drug development approaches

  18. A Population Model of Integrative Cardiovascular Physiology

    PubMed Central

    Pruett, William A.; Husband, Leland D.; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G.; Hester, Robert L.

    2013-01-01

    We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546

  19. A population model of integrative cardiovascular physiology.

    PubMed

    Pruett, William A; Husband, Leland D; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G; Hester, Robert L

    2013-01-01

    We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546

  20. Spatial uncertainty analysis of population models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; King, Anthony Wayne; Schumaker, Nathan; Ashwood, Tom L; Jackson, Barbara L

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for conducting spatial uncertainty analysis of spatial population models, and illustrates the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial population models typically simulate birth, death, and migration on an input map that describes habitat. Typically, only a single reference map is available, but we can imagine that a collection of other, slightly different, maps could be drawn to represent a particular species' habitat. As a first approximation, our approach assumes that spatial uncertainty (i.e., the variation among values assigned to a location by such a collection of maps) is constrained by characteristics of the reference map, regardless of how the map was produced. Our approach produces lower levels of uncertainty than alternative methods used in landscape ecology because we condition our alternative landscapes on local properties of the reference map. Simulated spatial uncertainty was higher near the borders of patches. Consequently, average uncertainty was highest for reference maps with equal proportions of suitable and unsuitable habitat, and no spatial autocorrelation. We used two population viability models to evaluate the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial uncertainty produced larger variation among predictions of a spatially explicit model than those of a spatially implicit model. Spatially explicit model predictions of final female population size varied most among landscapes with enough clustered habitat to allow persistence. In contrast, predictions of population growth rate varied most among landscapes with only enough clustered habitat to support a small population, i.e., near a spatially mediated extinction threshold. We conclude that spatial uncertainty has the greatest effect on persistence when the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat are such that habitat capacity is near the minimum

  1. EFFECTS OF CHRONIC STRESS ON WILDLIFE POPULATIONS: A POPULATION MODELING APPROACH AND CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter describes a matrix modeling approach to characterize and project risks to wildlife populations subject to chronic stress. Population matrix modeling was used to estimate effects of one class of environmental contaminants, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs), to populations ...

  2. Turbulence and zooplankton production: insights from PROVESS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visser, André W.; Stips, Adolf

    2002-06-01

    Zooplankton are directly influenced by turbulence in both a passive and an active manner. Passively, zooplankton are at the mercy of turbulence in how it affects their vertical mixing, encounter rate, detection abilities and feeding current efficiency. Many zooplankton species, however, are actively able to mitigate the effects of turbulence by modifying their behaviour, e.g. vertical migration, prey switching and habituation to hydromechanical stimuli. Both theoretical treatments of these processes and field observations from the northern North Sea are examined. Field observations show that some copepod species actively migrate to avoid high turbulence levels in surface waters. Furthermore, observations show a negative relationship between turbulence and zooplankton ingestion rates. This supports the paradigm of a dome-shaped response for zooplankton production with environmental turbulence. A theoretical treatment shows that the reaction distance, R, for an ambush-feeding copepod feeding on swimming organisms follows R ∝ ɛ-1/6 where ɛ is the turbulent dissipation rate, a result that shows close agreement with previously reported experimental results.

  3. Population mixture model for nonlinear telomere dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itzkovitz, Shalev; Shlush, Liran I.; Gluck, Dan; Skorecki, Karl

    2008-12-01

    Telomeres are DNA repeats protecting chromosomal ends which shorten with each cell division, eventually leading to cessation of cell growth. We present a population mixture model that predicts an exponential decrease in telomere length with time. We analytically solve the dynamics of the telomere length distribution. The model provides an excellent fit to available telomere data and accounts for the previously unexplained observation of telomere elongation following stress and bone marrow transplantation, thereby providing insight into the nature of the telomere clock.

  4. LIMNETIC ZOOPLANKTON OF LAKES IN KATMAI NATIONAL MONUMENT, ALASKA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The limnetic zooplankton in lakes of the Naknek River system in southwestern Alaska was sampled extensively during 1962-63. The numerically dominant forms of limnetic zooplankton were Diaptomus, Cyclops, Daphnia, Bosmina, coregoni, Kellicotia, and Conochilus. Some littoral and be...

  5. Speciation patterns and processes in the zooplankton of the ancient lakes of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Vaillant, James J; Bock, Dan G; Haffner, G Douglas; Cristescu, Melania E

    2013-01-01

    Although studies of ancient lake fauna have provided important insights about speciation patterns and processes of organisms in heterogeneous benthic environments, evolutionary forces responsible for speciation in the relatively homogenous planktonic environment remain largely unexplored. In this study, we investigate possible mechanisms of speciation in zooplankton using the freshwater diaptomids of the ancient lakes of Sulawesi, Indonesia, as a model system. We integrate phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial and nuclear genes with morphological and genome size data. Overall, our results support the conclusion that colonization order and local adaptation are dominant at the large, island scale, whereas at local and intralacustrine scales, speciation processes are regulated by gene flow among genetically differentiated and locally adapted populations. In the Malili lakes, the diaptomid populations are homogenous at nuclear loci, but show two highly divergent mitochondrial clades that are geographically restricted to single lakes despite the interconnectivity of the lake systems. Our study, based on coalescent simulations and population genetic analyses, indicates that unidirectional hybridization allows gene flow across the nuclear genome, but prevents the introgression of mitochondria into downstream populations. We suggest that hybridization and introgression between young lineages is a significant evolutionary force in freshwater plankton. PMID:24101996

  6. Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, Corinne; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Moriarty, Róisín; Alvain, Séverine; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Chollet, Sophie; Enright, Clare; Franklin, Daniel J.; Geider, Richard J.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Larsen, Stuart; Legendre, Louis; Platt, Trevor; Prentice, I. Colin; Rivkin, Richard B.; Sailley, Sévrine; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Stephens, Nick; Vogt, Meike; Vallina, Sergio M.

    2016-07-01

    Global ocean biogeochemistry models currently employed in climate change projections use highly simplified representations of pelagic food webs. These food webs do not necessarily include critical pathways by which ecosystems interact with ocean biogeochemistry and climate. Here we present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types (PFTs): six types of phytoplankton, three types of zooplankton, and heterotrophic procaryotes. We improved the representation of zooplankton dynamics in our model through (a) the explicit inclusion of large, slow-growing macrozooplankton (e.g. krill), and (b) the introduction of trophic cascades among the three zooplankton types. We use the model to quantitatively assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean high-nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region during summer. When model simulations do not include macrozooplankton grazing explicitly, they systematically overestimate Southern Ocean chlorophyll biomass during the summer, even when there is no iron deposition from dust. When model simulations include a slow-growing macrozooplankton and trophic cascades among three zooplankton types, the high-chlorophyll summer bias in the Southern Ocean HNLC region largely disappears. Our model results suggest that the observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community, despite iron limitation of phytoplankton community growth rates. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean.

  7. Material properties of zooplankton and nekton from the California current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, Kaylyn

    contrast were investigated. The sound speed contrast (h) was measured for Pacific hake flesh, myctophid flesh, Humboldt squid mantle, and Humboldt squid braincase. Sound speed varied within and between nekton taxa. The material properties reported in this study can be used to improve target strength estimates from acoustic scattering models which would increase the accuracy of biomass estimates from acoustic surveys for these zooplankton and nekton.

  8. Biomass and estimated production properties of size-fractionated zooplankton in the Yellow Sea, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Yuanzi; Sun, Song; Zhang, Fang; Wang, Minxiao; Li, Chaolun; Yang, Bo

    2012-06-01

    December due to the intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current. And in March, the higher zooplankton biomass and production, especially for small size zooplankton, occurred at the coastal waters resulting from complex physical properties. Results of the present paper showed the biomass and production properties of size-fractionated zooplankton, which is very important for "parameterization" of food web structure models of the Yellow Sea.

  9. Fitting population models from field data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Freeman, D.C.; Kirchhoff, M.D.; Alados, C.L.; Escos, J.; Duda, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    The application of population and community ecology to solving real-world problems requires population and community dynamics models that reflect the myriad patterns of interaction among organisms and between the biotic and physical environments. Appropriate models are not hard to construct, but the experimental manipulations needed to evaluate their defining coefficients are often both time consuming and costly, and sometimes environmentally destructive, as well. In this paper we present an empirical approach for finding the coefficients of broadly inclusive models without the need for environmental manipulation, demonstrate the approach with both an animal and a plant example, and suggest possible applications. Software has been developed, and is available from the senior author, with a manual describing both field and analytic procedures.

  10. The link between environmental variation and evolutionary shifts in dormancy in zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Matthew R

    2013-10-01

    Sex and dormancy are intertwined in organisms that engage in asexual and sexual reproduction. The transition between asexual and sexual reproduction typically results in a dormant stage that provides a mechanism for persisting under harsh environmental conditions. For example, many zooplankton engage in sexual reproduction when environmental conditions deteriorate and produce resting eggs that remain viable for decades. It has long been assumed that observed variation in the timing and magnitude of investment into a dormant stage among populations or species reflects local environmental conditions. Yet, the importance of dormancy for the persistence of a given population can differ dramatically among habitats (i.e., permanent vs. seasonal ponds). As a result, environmental conditions may exert selection on the propensity for zooplankton to engage in sexual reproduction and enter dormancy in natural populations. Here, I highlight a growing body of research illustrating an important link between environmental conditions and divergent reproductive strategies in zooplankton. I specifically: (1) review the environmental cues that initiate a transition between asexual and sexual reproduction in zooplankton and (2) describe recent work demonstrating an evolutionary consequence of ecological selective pressures, such as predation and habitat predictability, on variation in the extent to which organisms engage in sex and enter dormancy. Such results have implications for the genetics and ecology of these organisms. PMID:23630969

  11. Adaptive dynamics for physiologically structured population models.

    PubMed

    Durinx, Michel; Metz, J A J Hans; Meszéna, Géza

    2008-05-01

    We develop a systematic toolbox for analyzing the adaptive dynamics of multidimensional traits in physiologically structured population models with point equilibria (sensu Dieckmann et al. in Theor. Popul. Biol. 63:309-338, 2003). Firstly, we show how the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics (Dieckmann and Law in J. Math. Biol. 34:579-612, 1996), an approximation for the rate of evolutionary change in characters under directional selection, can be extended so as to apply to general physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states. Secondly, we show that the invasion fitness function (up to and including second order terms, in the distances of the trait vectors to the singularity) for a community of N coexisting types near an evolutionarily singular point has a rational form, which is model-independent in the following sense: the form depends on the strategies of the residents and the invader, and on the second order partial derivatives of the one-resident fitness function at the singular point. This normal form holds for Lotka-Volterra models as well as for physiologically structured population models with multiple birth states, in discrete as well as continuous time and can thus be considered universal for the evolutionary dynamics in the neighbourhood of singular points. Only in the case of one-dimensional trait spaces or when N = 1 can the normal form be reduced to a Taylor polynomial. Lastly we show, in the form of a stylized recipe, how these results can be combined into a systematic approach for the analysis of the (large) class of evolutionary models that satisfy the above restrictions. PMID:17943289

  12. Intercomparison of six Mediterranean zooplankton time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berline, Léo; Siokou-Frangou, Ioanna; Marasović, Ivona; Vidjak, Olja; Fernández de Puelles, M.a. Luz; Mazzocchi, Maria Grazia; Assimakopoulou, Georgia; Zervoudaki, Soultana; Fonda-Umani, Serena; Conversi, Alessandra; Garcia-Comas, Carmen; Ibanez, Frédéric; Gasparini, Stéphane; Stemmann, Lars; Gorsky, Gabriel

    2012-05-01

    We analyzed and compared Mediterranean mesozooplankton time series spanning 1957-2006 from six coastal stations in the Balearic, Ligurian, Tyrrhenian, North and Middle Adriatic and Aegean Sea. Our analysis focused on fluctuations of major zooplankton taxonomic groups and their relation with environmental and climatic variability. Average seasonal cycles and interannual trends were derived. Stations spanned a large range of trophic status from oligotrophic to moderately eutrophic. Intra-station analyses showed (1) coherent multi-taxa trends off Villefranche sur mer that diverge from the previous results found at species level, (2) in Baleares, covariation of zooplankton and water masses as a consequence of the boundary hydrographic regime in the middle Western Mediterranean, (3) decrease in trophic status and abundance of some taxonomic groups off Naples, and (4) off Athens, an increase of zooplankton abundance and decrease in chlorophyll possibly caused by reduction of anthropogenic nutrient input, increase of microbial components, and more efficient grazing control on phytoplankton. (5) At basin scale, the analysis of temperature revealed significant positive correlations between Villefranche, Trieste and Naples for annual and/or winter average, and synchronous abrupt cooling and warming events centered in 1987 at the same three sites. After correction for multiple comparisons, we found no significant correlations between climate indices and local temperature or zooplankton abundance, nor between stations for zooplankton abundance, therefore we suggest that for these coastal stations local drivers (climatic, anthropogenic) are dominant and that the link between local and larger scale of climate should be investigated further if we are to understand zooplankton fluctuations.

  13. Minimal Model of Plankton Systems Revisited with Spatial Diffusion and Maturation Delay.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jiantao; Tian, Jianjun Paul; Wei, Junjie

    2016-03-01

    This study revisits the minimal model for a plankton ecosystem proposed by Scheffer with spatial diffusion of plankton and the delay of the maturation period of herbivorous zooplankton. It deepens our understanding of effects of the nutrients and the predation of fish upon zooplankton on the dynamical patterns of the plankton system and also presents new phenomena induced by the delay with spatial diffusion. When the nutrient level is sufficient low, the zooplankton population collapses and the phytoplankton population reaches its carrying capacity. Mathematically, the global stability of the boundary equilibrium is proved. As the nutrient level increases, the system switches to coexistent equilibria or oscillations depending on the maturation period of zooplankton and the predation rate of fish on herbivorous zooplankton. Under an eutrophic condition, there is a unique coexistent homogeneous equilibrium, and the equilibrium density of phytoplankton increases, while the equilibrium density of herbivorous zooplankton decreases as the fish predation rate on herbivorous zooplankton is increasing. The study shows that the system will never collapses under the eutrophic condition unless the fish predation rate approaches infinite. The study also finds a functional bifurcation relation between the delay parameter of the maturation period of herbivorous zooplankton and the fish predation rate on herbivorous zooplankton that, above a critical value of the fish predation rate, the system stays at the coexistent equilibrium, and below that value, the system switches its dynamical patterns among stable and unstable equilibria and oscillations. The oscillations emerge from Hopf bifurcations, and a detailed mathematical analysis about the Hopf bifurcations is carried out to give relevant ecological predications. PMID:26934887

  14. Stellar population models at high spectral resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraston, C.; Strömbäck, G.

    2011-12-01

    We present new, high-to-intermediate spectral resolution stellar population models, based on four popular libraries of empirical stellar spectra, namely Pickles, ELODIE, STELIB and MILES. These new models are the same as our previous models, but with higher resolution and based on empirical stellar spectra, while keeping other ingredients the same including the stellar energetics, the atmospheric parameters and the treatment of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch and the horizontal branch morphology. We further compute very high resolution (R= 20 000) models based on the theoretical stellar library MARCS which extends to the near-infrared. We therefore provide merged high-resolution stellar population models, extending from ˜1000 to 25 000 Å, using our previously published high-resolution theoretical models which extended to the ultraviolet. We compare how these libraries perform in stellar population models and highlight spectral regions where discrepancies are found. We confirm our previous findings that the flux around the V band is lower (in a normalized sense) in models based on empirical libraries than in those based on the BaSeL-Kurucz library, which results in a bluer B-V colour. Most noticeably the theoretical library MARCS gives results fully consistent with the empirical libraries. This same effect is also found in other models using MILES, namely Vazdekis et al. and Conroy & Gunn, even though the latter authors reach the opposite conclusion. The bluer predicted B-V colour (by 0.05 mag in our models) is in better agreement with both the colours of luminous red galaxies and globular cluster data. We test the models on their ability to reproduce, through full spectral fitting, the ages and metallicities of Galactic globular clusters as derived from colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) fitting and find overall good agreement. We also discuss extensively the Lick indices calculated directly on the integrated MILES-based spectral energy distributions

  15. USING POPULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE RISK IN POPULATION OF BIRDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Wildlife populations are exposed to varying habitat structure and quality, as well as an array of human-induced environmental stressors. Predicting the consequences to a real population of one perturbation (e.g. a pesticide application) without considering other human activities ...

  16. Exploring Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling with Resampling Visualization

    PubMed Central

    Zuo, Fenghua

    2014-01-01

    Background. In the last decade, population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) modeling has spread its influence in the whole process of drug research and development. While targeting the construction of the dose-concentration of a drug based on a population of patients, it shows great flexibility in dealing with sparse samplings and unbalanced designs. The resampling approach has been considered an important statistical tool to assist in PopPK model validation by measuring the uncertainty of parameter estimates and evaluating the influence of individuals. Methods. The current work describes a graphical diagnostic approach for PopPK models by visualizing resampling statistics, such as case deletion and bootstrap. To examine resampling statistics, we adapted visual methods from multivariate analysis, parallel coordinate plots, and multidimensional scaling. Results. Multiple models were fitted, the information of parameter estimates and diagnostics were extracted, and the results were visualized. With careful scaling, the dependencies between different statistics are revealed. Using typical examples, the approach proved to have great capacity to identify influential outliers from the statistical perspective, which deserves special attention in a dosing regimen. Discussion. By combining static graphics with interactive graphics, we are able to explore the multidimensional data from an integrated and systematic perspective. Complementary to current approaches, our proposed method provides a new way for PopPK modeling analysis. PMID:24877118

  17. Element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    I review the implementation of the effects from varying chemical element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling, focusing on α- and Fe-peak elements. A brief overview of the development of such models over the past 30 years is provided, starting with early work on the identification of relevant absorption features in the spectra of early-type galaxies in the 1980s leading to the most recent developments of the past years. Recent highlights include the adoption of new flux calibrated libraries, the inclusion of a wide range of chemical elements, the calculation of error estimates on the model, and the consideration of element variation effects on full spectra. The calibration of such models with globular clusters and some key results on the element ratios measured in early-type galaxies are presented.

  18. SIMULATING TEMPORAL VARIATIONS IN NUTRIENT, PHYTOPLANKTON, AND ZOOPLANKTON ON THE INNER OREGON SHELF

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this study is to use a numerical model to examine the linkages between physical processes and temporal variability in the plankton dynamics in a coastal upwelling system. We used a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model coupled to a two-dimensional circulation...

  19. Zooplankton succession in fingerling production ponds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many pond cultured species require a range of zooplankton species for consumption before they can be weaned onto manufactured feed. The widest variety of plankton species develops when empty ponds are filled and fertilized. Use of organic and inorganic fertilizers facilitates the development of ba...

  20. Bacteria dispersal by hitchhiking on zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Grossart, Hans-Peter; Dziallas, Claudia; Leunert, Franziska; Tang, Kam W

    2010-06-29

    Microorganisms and zooplankton are both important components of aquatic food webs. Although both inhabit the same environment, they are often regarded as separate functional units that are indirectly connected through nutrient cycling and trophic cascade. However, research on pathogenic and nonpathogenic bacteria has shown that direct association with zooplankton has significant influences on the bacteria's physiology and ecology. We used stratified migration columns to study vertical dispersal of hitchhiking bacteria through migrating zooplankton across a density gradient that was otherwise impenetrable for bacteria in both upward and downward directions (conveyor-belt hypothesis). The strength of our experiments is to permit quantitative estimation of transport and release of associated bacteria: vertical migration of Daphnia magna yielded an average dispersal rate of 1.3 x 10(5) x cells x Daphnia(-1) x migration cycle(-1) for the lake bacterium Brevundimonas sp. Bidirectional vertical dispersal by migrating D. magna was also shown for two other bacterial species, albeit at lower rates. The prediction that diurnally migrating zooplankton acquire different attached bacterial communities from hypolimnion and epilimnion between day and night was subsequently confirmed in our field study. In mesotrophic Lake Nehmitz, D. hyalina showed pronounced diel vertical migration along with significant diurnal changes in attached bacterial community composition. These results confirm that hitchhiking on migrating animals can be an important mechanism for rapidly relocating microorganisms, including pathogens, allowing them to access otherwise inaccessible resources. PMID:20547852

  1. SENSITIVITY OF ZOOPLANKTON INDICATORS IN REGIONAL MONITORING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study describes an approach for assessing and selecting ecological indicators for regional monitoring of northeastern US lakes. We analyze the components of variance for indicators of zooplankton richness and abundance in the context of the spatial and temporal sampling des...

  2. Cyanobacteria bloom: selective filter for zooplankton?

    PubMed

    Mello, N A S T; Maia-Barbosa, P M

    2015-01-01

    The Ibirité reservoir is an urban and eutrophic environment, with regular occurrences of cyanobacteria blooms. The reservoir is warm monomict and remains stratified most of the year, circulating in the dry season (winter). During the hydrological cycle of October/07 to October/08 there were four scenarios with different environmental conditions, which influenced the structure of the zooplankton community, as confirmed in a previous study. Changes in the zooplankton community structure between the scenarios were studied, aiming at analyzing the stability and persistence of this community. The Spearman's coefficient of correlation was used to measure the stability; the persistence was evaluated through a cluster analysis and changes in community composition were estimated by the "temporal" β diversity index. Considering the distribution patterns of abundance, the community was stable only in the transition between scenarios 1 and 2 (n = 30, r = 0.71, p = 0.00001), when there were no cyanobacteria blooms. The persistence of zooplankton between the scenarios was low, showing a distinct species composition for each scenario. The highest variations in species composition, observed by the values of temporal β diversity index, were the transitions between scenarios 3-0 (1.45) and 0-1 (1.05), and the lowest variations occurred in the transition between scenarios 1-2 (0.57). The results suggest that the cyanobacteria blooms at Ibirité reservoir are be acting as "selective filters", and are, thus, disturbances with sufficient ability to change the structure of the zooplankton community. PMID:25945634

  3. Sample variability of zooplankton in the nearshore off Louisiana with consideration of sampling design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Chul; Wormuth, John H.; Wolff, Gary A.

    1989-02-01

    Variability in zooplankton samples was examined to identify a proper sampling design for unbiased estimates of zooplankton abundances. Samples were selected in the nearshore about 16 km south of Louisiana during one night and 2 days in October 1985 using a 1 m 2 multiple Opening/Closing net and Environmental Sensing System fitted with 0.333 mm mesh nets. Data obtained from 21 tows of three different tow lengths at mid depth (about 5 m, water depth 10 m) were analysed. There seemed to be different patterns of vertical migration and these vertical migrations were shown to explain about 75% of total sample variability in the study area. These were: usual vertical migration ( Centropages velificatus, Chaetognatha, Eucalanus spp., Phialidium spp., Paracalanus spp. and Temora turbinata), weak vertical migration with elapsed phase (Doliolida A and Oikopleura spp.), and reversed vertical migration ( Acartia tonsa). The relationship between mean abundances and tow distance was weak, but the variance of the abundance estimates showed an exponentially decreasing trend with an increase of tow distance when populations were at their maximum, probably due to vertical migration. From nonlinear regression analyses with the model (variance)= A + B e c(tow distance), the minimum tow distance that would provide a stabilized variance of abundance estimate was determined. It varied among taxa from 43 to 140 m with an average of 80 m. Vertically stratified sampling with a minimum tow distance of about 140 m is suggested as a proper sampling scheme for the unbiased estimation of abundances in a nearshore environment like the sampling site of this study.

  4. Regulation of Mnemiopsis leidyi dynamics by potential changes in temperature and zooplankton conditions in the Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salihoglu, B.; Fach, B.; Oguz, T.

    2009-04-01

    Providing a comprehensive understanding of the effects that cause formations of ctenophore blooms in the Black Sea is the main objective of this study. In order to analyse ctenophore dynamics in the Black Sea a zero-dimensional population based model of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi is developed. The stage resolving ctenophore model combines the modified form of stage resolving approach of Fennel, 2001 with the growth dynamics model of Kremer, 1976; Kremer and Reeve, 1989 under 4 stages of model-ctenophore. These stages include the different growth characteristics of egg, juvenile, transitional and adult stages. The dietary patterns of the different stages follows the observations obtained from the literature. The model is able to represent consistent development patterns, while reflecting the physiological complexity of a population of Mnemiopsis leidyi. Model results suggest that different nutritional requirement of each stage may serve as the bottlenecks for population growth and only when growth conditions are favorable for both larval and lobate stages, the high overall population growth rates may occur. Model is also used to analyse the influence of climatic changes on Mnemiopsis leidyi reproduction and outburst. This study presents and discussed how potential changes in temperature and zooplankton conditions in the Black Sea may regulate Mnemiopsis leidyi dynamics.

  5. Increasing zooplankton size diversity enhances the strength of top-down control on phytoplankton in the East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, L.; Chang, C.; García-Comas, C.; Gong, G.; Hsieh, C.

    2012-12-01

    generalized linear mixed-effect model in investigating the effect of each factor on the spatiotemporal dynamics of zooplankton/phytoplankton biomass ratio in the East China Sea, with sampling cruises as a random effect. A lower value of AIC represents better goodness of fit of the model. The p-value was estimated based on MCMC sampling.

  6. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  7. Sustainability in single-species population models.

    PubMed

    Quinn, Terrance J; Collie, Jeremy S

    2005-01-29

    In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-structured fish population with density dependence at some stage of its life history. We trace the development of the view of sustainability through four periods. The classical view of sustainability, prevalent in the 1970s and earlier, developed from deterministic production models, in which equilibrium abundance or biomass is derived as a function of fishing mortality. When there is no fishing mortality, the population equilibrates about its carrying capacity. We show that carrying capacity is the result of reproductive and mortality processes and is not a fixed constant unless these processes are constant. There is usually a fishing mortality, F(MSY), which results in MSY, and a higher value, F(ext), for which the population is eventually driven to extinction. For each F between 0 and F(ext), there is a corresponding sustainable population. From this viewpoint, the primary tool for achieving sustainability is the control of fishing mortality. The neoclassical view of sustainability, developed in the 1980s, involved population models with depensation and stochasticity. This view point is in accord with the perception that a population at a low level is susceptible to collapse or to a lack of rebuilding regardless of fishing. Sustainability occurs in a more restricted range from that in the classical view and includes an abundance threshold. A variety of studies has suggested that fishing mortality should not let a population drop below a threshold at 10-20% of carrying capacity. The modern view of sustainability in the 1990s moves further in the direction of precaution. The fishing mortality limit is the former target of F(MSY) (or some proxy), and the target fishing mortality is set lower. This viewpoint further reduces the range of permissible fishing mortalities and resultant desired population sizes. The objective has shifted from optimizing long-term catch to

  8. UV radiation and freshwater zooplankton: damage, protection and recovery

    PubMed Central

    Rautio, Milla; Tartarotti, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    While many laboratory and field studies show that zooplankton are negatively affected when exposed to high intensities of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), most studies also indicate that zooplankton are well adapted to cope with large variations in their UVR exposure in the pelagic zone of lakes. The response mechanisms of zooplankton are diverse and efficient and may explain the success and richness of freshwater zooplankton in optically variable waters. While no single behavioural or physiological protection mechanism seems to be superior, and while several unexplained and contradictory patterns exist in zooplankton UVR ecology, recent increases in our understanding are consistent with UVR playing an important role for zooplankton. This review examines the variability in freshwater zooplankton responses to UVR, with a focus on crustacean zooplankton (Cladocera and Copepoda). We present an overview of UVR-induced damages, and the protection and recovery mechanisms freshwater zooplankton use when exposed to UVR. We review the current knowledge of UVR impact on freshwater zooplankton at species and community levels, and discuss briefly how global change over the last three decades has influenced the UVR milieu in lakes. PMID:21516254

  9. Population Models for Massive Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Young-Wook; Joo, Seok-Joo; Han, Sang-Il; Na, Chongsam; Lim, Dongwook; Roh, Dong-Goo

    2015-03-01

    Increasing number of massive globular clusters (GCs) in the Milky Way are now turned out to host multiple stellar populations having different heavy element abundances enriched by supernovae. Recent observations have further shown that [CNO/Fe] is also enhanced in metal-rich subpopulations in most of these GCs, including ω Cen and M22 (Marino et al. 2011, 2012). In order to reflect this in our population modeling, we have expanded the parameter space of Y 2 isochrones and horizontal-branch (HB) evolutionary tracks to include the cases of normal and enhanced nitrogen abundances ([N/Fe] = 0.0, 0.8, and 1.6). The observed variations in the total CNO content were reproduced by interpolating these nitrogen enhanced stellar models. Our test simulations with varying N and O abundances show that, once the total CNO sum ([CNO/Fe]) is held constant, both N and O have almost identical effects on the HR diagram (see Fig. 1).

  10. Correlations between zooplankton assemblages and environmental factors in the downtown rivers of Shanghai, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Na; Li, Erchao; Feng, Dexiang; Xiao, Baicai; Wei, Chaoqun; Zhang, Meiling; Chen, Liqiao

    2014-11-01

    Most urban rivers play an important role in urban flood control and drainage in China, but pollution is fast becoming an issue of greater importance in water management. In this study, 63 zooplankton species were recorded in four downtown rivers in Shanghai between November 2007 and October 2008. Of these, 44 species belonged to the Rotifera, 13 to Cladocera, and six to Copepoda. The three most frequently occurring zooplankton ( Brachionus calyciflorus, Microcyclops leuckarti, and Asplanchna priodonta) accounted for 80.00%, 76.84%, and 53.68%, respectively. Rotifera were found to be dominant, comprising 86.26% of total zooplankton, while cladoceran and copepod abundance amounted to 5.08% and 8.67%, respectively. Water temperature, salinity, electrical conductivity, and total nitrogen were of the greatest significance in the occurrence of zooplankton. Two species ( Schmackeria forbesi and Lepadella ovalis) were notably more sensitive to environmental factors such as salinity and electrical conductivity than other species. The population size and community were inversely correlated with the increasing nutrient levels of the four rivers, suggesting that the water quality of the four rivers had been gradually recovering from a severe eutrophic state and that water conditions of the rivers had been gradually improved.

  11. Bridging the gap between marine biogeochemical and fisheries sciences; configuring the zooplankton link

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, Aditee; Castellani, Claudia; Gentleman, Wendy C.; Jónasdóttir, Sigrún H.; Flynn, Kevin J.; Bode, Antonio; Halsband, Claudia; Kuhn, Penelope; Licandro, Priscilla; Agersted, Mette D.; Calbet, Albert; Lindeque, Penelope K.; Koppelmann, Rolf; Møller, Eva F.; Gislason, Astthor; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; St. John, Michael

    2014-12-01

    Exploring climate and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems requires an understanding of how trophic components interact. However, integrative end-to-end ecosystem studies (experimental and/or modelling) are rare. Experimental investigations often concentrate on a particular group or individual species within a trophic level, while tropho-dynamic field studies typically employ either a bottom-up approach concentrating on the phytoplankton community or a top-down approach concentrating on the fish community. Likewise the emphasis within modelling studies is usually placed upon phytoplankton-dominated biogeochemistry or on aspects of fisheries regulation. In consequence the roles of zooplankton communities (protists and metazoans) linking phytoplankton and fish communities are typically under-represented if not (especially in fisheries models) ignored. Where represented in ecosystem models, zooplankton are usually incorporated in an extremely simplistic fashion, using empirical descriptions merging various interacting physiological functions governing zooplankton growth and development, and thence ignoring physiological feedback mechanisms. Here we demonstrate, within a modelled plankton food-web system, how trophic dynamics are sensitive to small changes in parameter values describing zooplankton vital rates and thus the importance of using appropriate zooplankton descriptors. Through a comprehensive review, we reveal the mismatch between empirical understanding and modelling activities identifying important issues that warrant further experimental and modelling investigation. These include: food selectivity, kinetics of prey consumption and interactions with assimilation and growth, form of voided material, mortality rates at different age-stages relative to prior nutrient history. In particular there is a need for dynamic data series in which predator and prey of known nutrient history are studied interacting under varied pH and temperature regimes.

  12. A hybrid numerical-experimental study of fluid transport by migrating zooplankton aggregations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinez, Monica; Dabiri, John; Nawroth, Janna; Gemmell, Brad; Collins, Samantha

    2014-11-01

    Zooplankton aggregations that undergo diel vertical migrations have been hypothesized to play an important role in local nutrient transport and global ocean dynamics. The degree of the contributions of these naturally occurring events ultimately relies on how efficiently fluid is transported and eventually mixed within the water column. By implementing solutions to the Stokes equations, numerical models have successfully captured the time-averaged far-field flow of self-propelled swimmers. However, discrepancies between numerical fluid transport estimates and field measurements of individual jellyfish suggest the need to include near-field effects to assess the impact of biomixing in oceanic processes. Here, we bypass the inherent difficulty of modeling the unsteady flow of active swimmers while including near-field effects by integrating experimental velocity data of zooplankton into our numerical model. Fluid transport is investigated by tracking a sheet of artificial fluid particles during vertical motion of zooplankton. Collective effects are addressed by studying different swimmer configurations within an aggregation from the gathered data for a single swimmer. Moreover, the dependence of animal swimming mode is estimated by using data for different species of zooplankton.

  13. Promotion of harmful algal blooms by zooplankton predatory activity

    PubMed Central

    Mitra, Aditee; Flynn, Kevin J

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between algae and their zooplanktonic predators typically involves consumption of nutrients by algae, grazing of the algae by zooplankton which in turn enhances predator biomass, controls algal growth and regenerates nutrients. Eutrophication raises nutrient levels, but does not simply increase normal predator–prey activity; rather, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events develop often with serious ecological and aesthetic implications. Generally, HAB species are outwardly poor competitors for nutrients, while their development of grazing deterrents during nutrient stress ostensibly occurs too late, after the nutrients have largely been consumed already by fast-growing non-HAB species. A new mechanism is presented to explain HAB dynamics under these circumstances. Using a multi-nutrient predator–prey model, it is demonstrated that these blooms can develop through the self-propagating failure of normal predator–prey activity, resulting in the transfer of nutrients into HAB growth at the expense of competing algal species. Rate limitation of this transfer provides a continual level of nutrient stress that results in HAB species exhibiting grazing deterrents protecting them from top-down control. This process is self-stabilizing as long as nutrient demand exceeds supply, maintaining the unpalatable status of HABs; such events are most likely under eutrophic conditions with skewed nutrient ratios. PMID:17148360

  14. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  15. Modeling populations of rotationally mixed massive stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brott, I.

    2011-02-01

    Massive stars can be considered as cosmic engines. With their high luminosities, strong stellar winds and violent deaths they drive the evolution of galaxies through-out the history of the universe. Despite the importance of massive stars, their evolution is still poorly understood. Two major issues have plagued evolutionary models of massive stars until today: mixing and mass loss On the main sequence, the effects of mass loss remain limited in the considered mass and metallicity range, this thesis concentrates on the role of mixing in massive stars. This thesis approaches this problem just on the cross road between observations and simulations. The main question: Do evolutionary models of single stars, accounting for the effects of rotation, reproduce the observed properties of real stars. In particular we are interested if the evolutionary models can reproduce the surface abundance changes during the main-sequence phase. To constrain our models we build a population synthesis model for the sample of the VLT-FLAMES Survey of Massive stars, for which star-formation history and rotational velocity distribution are well constrained. We consider the four main regions of the Hunter diagram. Nitrogen un-enriched slow rotators and nitrogen enriched fast rotators that are predicted by theory. Nitrogen enriched slow rotators and nitrogen unenriched fast rotators that are not predicted by our model. We conclude that currently these comparisons are not sufficient to verify the theory of rotational mixing. Physical processes in addition to rotational mixing appear necessary to explain the stars in the later two regions. The chapters of this Thesis have been published in the following Journals: Ch. 2: ``Rotating Massive Main-Sequence Stars I: Grids of Evolutionary Models and Isochrones'', I. Brott, S. E. de Mink, M. Cantiello, N. Langer, A. de Koter, C. J. Evans, I. Hunter, C. Trundle, J.S. Vink submitted to Astronomy & Astrop hysics Ch. 3: ``The VLT-FLAMES Survey of Massive

  16. Fitting a predator prey model to zooplankton time-series data in the Gironde estuary (France): Ecological significance of the parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, Valérie; Chardy, Pierre; Sautour, Benoît

    2006-05-01

    The relationships between the seasonal fluctuations of the copepod Eurytemora affinis and the mysid Neomysis integer were studied from observed data and experimental results, using a predator-prey model in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary. Mean seasonal fluctuations of abundances were derived from long term data series collected from 1978 to 2003 for both species. In situ predator-prey experiments over a seasonal cycle were used to estimate the seasonal variation of the consumption rate of N. integer on E. affinis and to verify the order of magnitude of the biological parameters given by the model. Predator-prey experiments revealed a high seasonal variation in maximum consumption rates with a mean of 56 ± 9 ind. pred -1 d -1. Maximum consumption rates were always higher for adults than for juveniles of Neomysis integer. Recorded selectivities were higher on nauplii than on copepodids + adults of Eurytemora affinis, both for the juveniles and the adults of N. integer. Neomysis integer mainly fed on meroplanktonic larvae, when they were available in higher abundances, than E. affinis in their environment. Spring increases of abundance for Eurytemora affinis copepodids + adults seemed to be mainly controlled by temperature whereas its decreasing abundance in summer was more related to Neomysis integer predation, suggesting that summer fluctuations of E. affinis abundance are probably controlled by mysid predation at summer times. Using a Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model, the seasonal peak of abundance of the mysid N. integer was well reproduced considering a predation on copepodids + adults of E. affinis, and suggested a dependence between mysid and copepod seasonal variations. However, the seasonal peak amplitude could not be explained solely by a predation on copepodids + adults or on nauplii of the copepod. Thus, N. integer is probably dependent on the seasonal fluctuations of the copepod's abundance, complementing its diet with macrophytal

  17. Impacts of zooplankton composition and algal enrichment on the accumulation of mercury in an experimental freshwater food web.

    PubMed

    Pickhardt, Paul C; Folt, Carol L; Chen, Celia Y; Klaue, Bjoern; Blum, Joel D

    2005-03-01

    There is a well documented accumulation of mercury in fish to concentrations of concern for human consumption. Variation in fish Hg burden between lakes is often high and may result from differences in Hg transfer through lower levels of the food web where mercury is bioconcentrated to phytoplankton and transferred to herbivorous zooplankton. Prior research derived patterns of mercury accumulation in freshwater invertebrates from field collected animals. This study provides results from controlled mesocosm experiments comparing the effects of zooplankton composition, algal abundance, and the chemical speciation of mercury on the ability of zooplankton to accumulate mercury from phytoplankton and transfer that mercury to planktivores. Experiments were conducted in 550-L mesocosms across a gradient of algal densities manipulated by inorganic nutrient additions. Enriched, stable isotopes of organic (CH3(200HgCl)) and inorganic (201HgCl2) mercury were added to mesocosms and their concentrations measured in water, seston, and three common zooplankton species. After 2 weeks, monomethylmercury (MMHg) concentrations were two to three times lower in the two copepod species, Leptodiaptomus minutus and Mesocyclops edax than in the cladoceran, Daphnia mendotae. All three zooplankton species had higher MMHg concentrations in mesocosms with low versus high initial algal abundance. However, despite higher concentrations of inorganic mercury (HgI) in seston from low nutrient mesocosms, there were no significant differences in the HgI accumulated by zooplankton across nutrient treatments. Bioaccumulation factors for MMHg in the plankton were similar to those calculated for plankton in natural lakes and a four-compartment (aqueous, seston, macrozooplankton, and periphyton/sediments) mass balance model after 21 days accounted for approximately 18% of the CH3(200Hg) and approximately 33% of the 201Hg added. Results from our experiments corroborate results from field studies and

  18. Landscape Modeling of Lygus hesperus Populations.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Lygus is a key pest in several of the 200 crops grown in the geographically distinct San Joaquin Valley. Spring weather patterns drive population build-up on host-plants. Habitat maps were created from survey sites in cropping regions of Kern County, CA. Population simulations were used to predict a...

  19. Estimating birth and death rates of zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, B.E.; Slatkin, M.

    1981-01-01

    Two estimates of the birth rate using an egg ratio are derived from a three-stage (eggs, juveniles, and adults) model for an exponentially growing population, and the sensitivity of these estimates to time and age-dependence of the birth and death rates and to measurement errors is explored. Tests to determine whether a population violates the assumptions of the model are suggested, and birth rate estimates which partially compensate for some departures from the model are proposed. Other methods for estimating birth and death rates based on this type of model are reviewed. Four birth rate estimates are compared using data for a population of Daphnia pulicaria, and recommendations on the use of birth and death rates based on the egg ratio are made.

  20. Harvesting and Processing Zooplankton for Use as Supplemental Fry Feed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We present the methods that we used to capture and dry large zooplankton from ponds to feed to channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus fry. Using a submersible pump and canister filter, we were able to capture about 1.0 kg (wet weight; 200 g in terms of dry weight) of zooplankton from well-fertilized po...

  1. Temperature effects on phytoplankton diversity - The zooplankton link

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewandowska, Aleksandra M.; Hillebrand, Helmut; Lengfellner, Kathrin; Sommer, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    Recent climate warming is expected to affect phytoplankton biomass and diversity in marine ecosystems. Temperature can act directly on phytoplankton (e.g. rendering physiological processes) or indirectly due to changes in zooplankton grazing activity. We tested experimentally the impact of increased temperature on natural phytoplankton and zooplankton communities using indoor mesocosms and combined the results from different experimental years applying a meta-analytic approach. We divided our analysis into three bloom phases to define the strength of temperature and zooplankton impacts on phytoplankton in different stages of bloom development. Within the constraints of an experiment, our results suggest that increased temperature and zooplankton grazing have similar effects on phytoplankton diversity, which are most apparent in the post-bloom phase, when zooplankton abundances reach the highest values. Moreover, we observed changes in zooplankton composition in response to warming and initial conditions, which can additionally affect phytoplankton diversity, because changing feeding preferences of zooplankton can affect phytoplankton community structure. We conclude that phytoplankton diversity is indirectly affected by temperature in the post-bloom phase through changing zooplankton composition and grazing activities. Before and during the bloom, however, these effects seem to be overruled by temperature enhanced bottom-up processes such as phytoplankton nutrient uptake.

  2. Limnetic crustacean zooplankton of Lake Oahe, May-October 1969

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Selgeby, James H.

    1974-01-01

    The limnetic crustacean zooplankton of Lake Oahe was dominated by copepods. Cyclops bicuspidatus thomasi was the dominant crustacean throughout the lake. Mesocyclops edax, Diaptomus ashlandi and Daphnia pulex were major components of the zooplankton in the deep, downstream portion of the lake while Bosmina longirostris and Daphnia retrocurva were important constituents in the river-like, upstream section of the lake.

  3. Upslope transport of near-bed zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zimmer, Cheryl Ann

    2009-09-01

    Zooplankton residing just above the deep-sea floor is an important component of the benthic/benthopelagic food chain. Consuming planktonic particulates and organisms, holoplankton and meroplankton are prey for fish and large invertebrates. Mechanisms controlling their abundances have been explored over relatively long time scales (months to years). Here, zooplankton were sampled every 2 h for 2.2 d using a moored, automated, serial zooplankton pump. The physical regime (currents and temperature) 1-100 m above bottom was measured during an inclusive 24-d period. The study site was located on the upper continental slope (750 m) of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, between the productive shelf and more impoverished rise and abyss. The coupled biological and physical records indicated tidally driven, net upslope transport of the holoplankton. The copepod (74.5% of collections) time series showed marked periodicity with a peak frequency of ˜13 h, approximately the diurnal tide (Fourier analysis). Local maxima corresponded with minimal water temperatures. Moreover, tidal cross-slope flow was highly coherent and 90° out of phase with temperature. Thus, maximal copepod concentrations, originating in colder deeper water, would be transported up the slope by the tide. Estimated net displacement of ˜1 km/d would deliver the animals to continental-shelf depths within a couple weeks. Time series of the much less abundant larvaceans (urochordates) (15.3%) and polychaete larvae (8.9%) showed periodicities with peak frequencies of 8-9 h. Statistical significance of the periodic signals could not be determined due to low numbers. Revealing holoplankton dynamics on scales of hours, this study may contribute to understanding of, for example, copepod feeding and aggregation near the deep-sea floor.

  4. Spatio-temporal variability of the North Sea cod recruitment in relation to temperature and zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

  5. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  6. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  7. Population model for Alaska Peninsula sea otters. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Siniff, D.B.

    1988-12-31

    This study was conducted to provide a basis for assessing risks of oil spills to sea otter populations along the Alaska Peninsula. The principal efforts were devoted to analyzing the available data on population dynamics. Curves characterizing survivorship and reproduction for sea otters were devised and fitted to several data sets. A detailed review was conducted of methods of assessing population dynamics data, and several new techniques (e.g., bootstrapping) were applied to available data. A simplified model for use with Alaska Peninsula sea otter populations was devised and implemented in a 'spreadsheet' format. Various aspects of model development and data on population size in Alaska Peninsula areas were reviewed.

  8. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    PubMed

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  9. A linear model of population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lushnikov, A. A.; Kagan, A. I.

    2016-08-01

    The Malthus process of population growth is reformulated in terms of the probability w(n,t) to find exactly n individuals at time t assuming that both the birth and the death rates are linear functions of the population size. The master equation for w(n,t) is solved exactly. It is shown that w(n,t) strongly deviates from the Poisson distribution and is expressed in terms either of Laguerre’s polynomials or a modified Bessel function. The latter expression allows for considerable simplifications of the asymptotic analysis of w(n,t).

  10. Biological processes in the water column of the South Atlantic Bight: Zooplankton responses: Progress report, June 1988--June 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Paffenhoefer, G.A.

    1989-02-07

    It is our objective to determine the major processes governing the abundance, composition and disruption of zooplankton as part of the interdisciplinary southeastern US continental shelf program of the Department of Energy. We will study the effects of physical processes such as along- and cross shelf advection and frontogenesis, on the development and fate of zooplankton populations during winter. Our proposed research consists of shipboard sampling, laboratory experiments and in situ determination of zooplankton abundance over time. The last objective represents a novel approach because the observations are (a) non-destructive with great spatial resolution, and (b) occur on current meter arrays at similar scales as measurements of current velocity and direction. Results to date show prolonged residence times of upwelled water masses on the middle and inner shelf during summer which results in the development of massive copepod and tunicate populations. During spring, the extent of displacement of nearshore zooplankton was a function of wind stress. Our results can be used to predict the impact of energy-related technology on the ecosystem of the southeastern continental shelf. 8 refs., 6 figs.

  11. Seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal zone of the North-Eastern Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikishina, A. B.; Arashkevich, E. G.; Louppova, N. E.; Soloviev, K. A.

    2009-04-01

    The phenological response of zooplankton community is a result of simultaneous effect of several factors: feeding conditions, predation abundance, periods of reproduction of common species and hydrodynamic regime. The Black sea ecosystem is one of the best studied in the world, otherwise there is still some illegibility about ecosystem functioning and especially about environmental factors influence on zooplankton dynamics. For the last twenty years pelagic system of the Black Sea has changed dramatically. The invasion of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the middle of eighties caused significant decrease in zooplankton biomass. It also altered plankton structure and shifted periods of mass reproduction of the abundant species and biomass maximums. For instance, before the invasion of Mnemiopsis the maximum of zooplankton biomass was observed in autumn (data by A. Pasternak, 1983), and after that the maximum moved to the spring (data by V.S. Khoroshilov, 1999). The incursion of ctenophore Beroe ovata feeding on Mnemiopsis in the nineties has led to the enhancement of zooplankton community. Although the detailed analysis of seasonal zooplankton dynamics wasn't performed in the recent years. The object of our research was to study seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal area of the North-Eastern Black Sea. Analysis of interannual, seasonal and spatial changes in zooplankton distribution, abundance and species composition along with age structure of dominant populations were performed based on investigations during 2005-2008 years in the North-Eastern Black Sea. Plankton samples were obtained monthly since June 2005 till December 2008. Plankton was collected at three stations at depths 25m, 50m and 500-1000m along the transect from the Blue Bay to the open sea. Sampling of gelatinous animals was conducted in parallel to the zooplankton sampling. Simultaneously with plankton sampling CTD data were obtained. The feeding conditions were

  12. PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

  13. PC BEEPOP - AN ECTOXICOLOGICAL SIMULATION MODEL FOR HONEY BEE POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee colony population dynamics. he model consists of a feedback system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, and contaminant exposures. t includes a mortality module (BEEKILL) and a ch...

  14. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  15. Characterization of Lake Michigan coastal lakes using zooplankton assemblages

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitman, Richard L.; Nevers, Meredith B.; Goodrich, Maria L.; Murphy, Paul C.; Davis, Bruce M.

    2004-01-01

    Zooplankton assemblages and water quality were examined bi-weekly from 17 April to 19 October 1998 in 11 northeastern Lake Michigan coastal lakes of similar origin but varied in trophic status and limnological condition. All lakes were within or adjacent to Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan. Zooplankton (principally microcrustaceans and rotifers) from triplicate Wisconsin net (80 I?m) vertical tows taken at each lake's deepest location were analyzed. Oxygen-temperature-pH-specific conductivity profiles and surface water quality were concurrently measured. Bray-Curtis similarity analysis showed small variations among sample replicates but large temporal differences. The potential use of zooplankton communities for environmental lake comparisons was evaluated by means of BIOENV (Primer 5.1) and principal component analyses. Zooplankton analyzed at the lowest identified taxonomic level yielded greatest sensitivity to limnological variation. Taxonomic and ecological aggregations of zooplankton data performed comparably, but less well than the finest taxonomic analysis. Secchi depth, chlorophyll a, and sulfate concentrations combined to give the best correlation with patterns of variation in the zooplankton data set. Principal component analysis of these variables revealed trophic status as the most influential major limnological gradient among the study lakes. Overall, zooplankton abundance was an excellent indicator of variation in trophic status.

  16. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1models do not include this effect. In order to inforce it, we present some alternative models and investigate their dynamics, presenting some important results.

  17. Effects of drought and pluvial periods on fish and zooplankton communities in prairie lakes: systematic and asystematic responses.

    PubMed

    Starks, Elizabeth; Cooper, Ryan; Leavitt, Peter R; Wissel, Björn

    2014-04-01

    The anticipated impacts of climate change on aquatic biota are difficult to evaluate because of potentially contrasting effects of temperature and hydrology on lake ecosystems, particularly those closed-basin lakes within semiarid regions. To address this shortfall, we quantified decade-scale changes in chemical and biological properties of 20 endorheic lakes in central North America in response to a pronounced transition from a drought to a pluvial period during the early 21st century. Lakes exhibited marked temporal changes in chemical characteristics and formed two discrete clusters corresponding to periods of substantially different effective moisture (as Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI). Discriminant function analysis (DFA) explained 90% of variability in fish assemblage composition and showed that fish communities were predicted best by environmental conditions during the arid interval (PDSI <-2). DFA also predicted that lakes could support more fish species during pluvial periods, but their occurrences may be limited by periodic stress due to recurrent droughts and physical barriers to colonization. Zooplankton taxonomic assemblages in fishless lakes were resilient to short-term changes in meteorological conditions, and did not vary between drought and deluge periods. Conversely, zooplankton taxa in fish-populated lakes decreased substantially in biomass during the wet interval, likely due to increased zooplanktivory by fish. The powerful effects of such climatic variability on hydrology and the strong subsequent links to water chemistry and biota indicate that future changes in global climate could result in significant restructuring of aquatic communities. Together these findings suggest that semiarid lakes undergoing temporary climate shifts provide a useful model system for anticipating the effects of global climate change on lake food webs. PMID:23960001

  18. Zooplankton distribution in the western Arctic during summer 2002: Hydrographic habitats and implications for food chain dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lane, Peter V. Z.; Llinás, Leopoldo; Smith, Sharon L.; Pilz, Dora

    Global warming is presently a widely accepted phenomenon with a broad range of anticipated impacts on marine ecosystems. Alterations in temperature, circulation and ice cover in Arctic seas may result in changes in food chain dynamics, beginning with planktonic processes. As part of the Shelf-Basin Interactions (SBI) program, we conducted zooplankton surveys during summer 2002 to assess the biomass, distribution and abundance of copepods and other pelagic zooplankton over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves, slope regions and the adjacent Canada Basin. The motivation for our fieldwork was the question, "Will global change, particularly warming, result in more large-sized zooplankton which support a pelagic food web of fish, birds, and certain mammals over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves or in more smaller-sized zooplankton which will diminish the fish, birds and mammals and favor sedentary benthic organisms?" The objectives of the present study were 1) to census the regional zooplankton community and establish a baseline for comparisons with historical and future studies and 2) to determine whether large-bodied copepods associated with deep waters of the Bering Sea or the Canada Basin were transported to the shelves in sufficient numbers to modify the food web in a region where smaller copepods often dominate the zooplankton numerically. Spatial distributions of zooplankton communities were clearly associated with hydrographic habitats determined by the chemical, physical and biological characteristics of the upper water layer. Smaller taxa dominated the shelf communities while offshore zooplankton assemblages were characterized by large-bodied copepods. The mesozooplankton community was numerically dominated by copepod nauplii and small-bodied juveniles, including Pseudocalanus spp. and Oithona similis. We observed very few large-bodied copepods from the Bering Sea. However, much of the shelf region surveyed included relatively numerous Calanus glacialis juveniles

  19. Changes in the nearshore and offshore zooplankton communities in Lake Ontario: 1981-88

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johannsson, Ora E.; Mills, Edward L.; O'Gorman, Robert

    1991-01-01

    We examined trends and factors influencing changes in nearshore and offshore zooplankton abundance and composition in Lake Ontario between 1981 and 1988. In the nearshore (southshore and eastern basin), zooplankton abundance decreased and shifts occurred in the relative abundances of Bosmina longirostris and Daphnia retrocurva (eastern basin) and Daphnia retrocurva and Daphnia galeata mendotae (southshore). These changes could have resulted from increased vertebrate predation or reduced food resources which intensified the effects of predation. In the offshore, the first appearance (FA) of the larger, less common cladoceran species occurred earlier in the season as of 1985. FA was correlated with cumulative epilimnetic temperature (CET) and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) a?Y165 mm caught in U.S. waters in the spring. In 1987, when CET was high and CPUE of alewife a?Y165 mm was low, large populations of these cladocerans developed in June and July. Bythotrephes cederstroemi, a recent invader in the Great Lakes, was abundant only in 1987 when the CPUE of alewife was lowest. Changes in zooplankton abundance, development, and composition along the nearshore-offshore gradient reflected effects of temperature, habitat, and planktivory on the community.

  20. Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton, and zooplankton: emergence in space and time.

    PubMed

    Roy, Shovonlal

    2008-10-01

    In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity-a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water. PMID:19669506

  1. Evidence of microplastics in samples of zooplankton from Portuguese coastal waters.

    PubMed

    Frias, J P G L; Otero, V; Sobral, P

    2014-04-01

    Records of high concentrations of plastic and microplastic marine debris floating in the ocean have led to investigate the presence of microplastics in samples of zooplankton from Portuguese coastal waters. Zooplankton samples collected at four offshore sites, in surveys conducted between 2002 and 2008, with three different sampling methods, were used in this preliminary study. A total of 152 samples were processed and microplastics were identified in 93 of them, corresponding to 61% of the total. Costa Vicentina, followed by Lisboa, were the regions with higher microplastic concentrations (0.036 and 0.033 no. m⁻³) and abundances (0.07 and 0.06 cm³ m⁻³), respectively. Microplastic: zooplankton ratios were also higher in these two regions, which is probably related to the proximity of densely populated areas and inputs from the Tejo and Sado river estuaries. Microplastics polymers were identified using Micro Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (μ-FTIR), as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyacrylates (PA). The present work is the first report on the composition of microplastic particles collected with plankton nets in Portuguese coastal waters. Plankton surveys from regular monitoring campaigns conducted worldwide may be used to monitor plastic particles in the oceans and constitute an important and low cost tool to address marine litter within the scope of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC). PMID:24461782

  2. Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

  3. Zooplankton patch dynamics: daily gap formation over abrupt topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genin, Amatzia; Greene, Charles; Haury, Loren; Wiebe, Peter; Gal, Gideon; Kaartvedt, Stein; Meir, Eli; Fey, Connie; Dawson, Jim

    1994-05-01

    Net tow and acoustic surveys of zooplankton distributions were made over and around Sixtymile Bank (110 km southwest of San Diego, California). Gaps devoid of vertically migrating zooplankton were formed every evening above the summit of the bank. Interactions between the migrating animals, their predators, physical advection and the local topography appear to determine the gap formation and dynamics. Gaps were transported downstream during the night and appeared to disintegrate slowly through vertical swimming behavior, current shear and mixing processes. Patch dynamics following gap formation, mediated by both ocean currents and animal behavior, should augment the spatial heterogeneity of zooplankton and affect marine food webs in areas where abrupt topography features are common.

  4. Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

    PubMed

    Owen-Smith, Norman

    2011-07-01

    1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and

  5. Hydroxide stabilization as a new tool for ballast disinfection: Efficacy of treatment on zooplankton

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moffitt, Christine M.; Watten, Barnaby J.; Barenburg, Amber; Henquinet, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Effective and economical tools are needed for treating ship ballast to meet new regulatory requirements designed to reduce the introduction of invasive aquatic species from ship traffic. We tested the efficacy of hydroxide stabilization as a ballast disinfection tool in replicated, sequential field trials on board the M/V Ranger III in waters of Lake Superior. Ballast water was introduced into each of four identical 1,320 L stainless steel tanks during a simulated ballasting operation. Two tanks were treated with NaOH to elevate the pH to 11.7 and the remaining two tanks were held as controls without pH alteration. After retention on board for 14–18 h, CO2-rich gas recovered from one of two diesel propulsion engines was sparged into tanks treated with NaOH for 2 h to force conversion of NaOH ultimately to sodium bicarbonate, thereby lowering pH to about 7.1. Prior to gas sparging, the engine exhaust was treated by a unique catalytic converter/wet scrubber process train to remove unwanted combustion byproducts and to provide cooling. The contents of each tank were then drained and filtered through 35-µm mesh plankton nets to collect all zooplankton. The composition and relative survival of zooplankton in each tank were evaluated by microscopy. Zooplankton populations were dominated by rotifers, but copepods and cladocerans were also observed. Hydroxide stabilization was 100% effective in killing all zooplankton present at the start of the tests. Our results suggest hydroxide stabilization has potential to be an effective and practical tool to disinfect ship ballast. Further, using CO2 released from the ship engine reduces emissions and the neutralized by product, sodium bicarbonate, can have beneficial impacts on the aquatic environment.

  6. Zooplankton may serve as transmission vectors for viruses infecting algal blooms in the ocean.

    PubMed

    Frada, Miguel José; Schatz, Daniella; Farstey, Viviana; Ossolinski, Justin E; Sabanay, Helena; Ben-Dor, Shifra; Koren, Ilan; Vardi, Assaf

    2014-11-01

    Marine viruses are recognized as a major driving force regulating phytoplankton community composition and nutrient cycling in the oceans. Yet, little is known about mechanisms that influence viral dispersal in aquatic systems, other than physical processes, and that lead to the rapid demise of large-scale algal blooms in the oceans. Here, we show that copepods, abundant migrating crustaceans that graze on phytoplankton, as well as other zooplankton can accumulate and mediate the transmission of viruses infecting Emiliania huxleyi, a bloom-forming coccolithophore that plays an important role in the carbon cycle. We detected by PCR that >80% of copepods collected during a North Atlantic E. huxleyi bloom carried E. huxleyi virus (EhV) DNA. We demonstrated by isolating a new infectious EhV strain from a copepod microbiome that these viruses are infectious. We further showed that EhVs can accumulate in high titers within zooplankton guts during feeding or can be adsorbed to their surface. Subsequently, EhV can be dispersed by detachment or via viral-dense fecal pellets over a period of 1 day postfeeding on EhV-infected algal cells, readily infecting new host populations. Intriguingly, the passage through zooplankton guts prolonged EhV's half-life of infectivity by 35%, relative to free virions in seawater, potentially enhancing viral transmission. We propose that zooplankton, swimming through topographically adjacent phytoplankton micropatches and migrating daily over large areas across physically separated water masses, can serve as viral vectors, boosting host-virus contact rates and potentially accelerating the demise of large-scale phytoplankton blooms. PMID:25438947

  7. Modeling the behavior of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, as a schooling predator exploiting patchy prey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nonacs, Peter; Smith, Paul E.; Bouskila, Amos; Luttbeg, Barney

    Extensive data sets on the bioenergetics of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, and the patchy food distribution in its natural habitat allow its foraging dynamics to be inferred by modeling using techniques from population biology and behavioral ecology. The behavioral model consistently predicts that E. mordax grows much more slowly than would be expected with a pure, net-energy intake rate maximization strategy. The reduced growth rates could result from the fish avoiding zooplankton patches, where they are under increased predation risk, by swimming slowly in the waters between zooplankton patches. The combinations of growth rates and daily instantaneous mortality rates generated by the behavioral model are internally consistent with a Lefkovitch matrix population model, which includes an early juvenile stage of a stable and stationary population. Several novel and testable predictions are made by the behavioral model, including: (1) anchovies swim very slowly between zooplankton patch encounters; (2) within a patch fish swim very rapidly while searching for prey; and (3) fish often leave zooplankton patches before totally filling their stomachs. Given these encouraging initial results, the behavioral modeling approach appears to be a valuable technique for examining how potential habitat changes due to global warming may affect fish behavior and populations. Several such scenarios are proposed and discussed.

  8. Sensitivity analysis of periodic matrix population models.

    PubMed

    Caswell, Hal; Shyu, Esther

    2012-12-01

    Periodic matrix models are frequently used to describe cyclic temporal variation (seasonal or interannual) and to account for the operation of multiple processes (e.g., demography and dispersal) within a single projection interval. In either case, the models take the form of periodic matrix products. The perturbation analysis of periodic models must trace the effects of parameter changes, at each phase of the cycle, on output variables that are calculated over the entire cycle. Here, we apply matrix calculus to obtain the sensitivity and elasticity of scalar-, vector-, or matrix-valued output variables. We apply the method to linear models for periodic environments (including seasonal harvest models), to vec-permutation models in which individuals are classified by multiple criteria, and to nonlinear models including both immediate and delayed density dependence. The results can be used to evaluate management strategies and to study selection gradients in periodic environments. PMID:23316494

  9. A general consumer-resource population model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

    2015-01-01

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

  10. IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model

    PubMed Central

    Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A.

    2015-01-01

    Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a ‘wild’ genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256

  11. IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model.

    PubMed

    Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A

    2015-01-01

    Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a 'wild' genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256

  12. Feeding of Acanthocylops robustus on zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu-Feng, Yang; Brandl, Zdeněk

    1996-03-01

    Feeding of freshwater cyclopoid copepod Acanthocyclops robustus on zooplankton was examined by a senes of feeding experiments during August-September of 1993. Study results showed A. robustus can capture and eat all type items provided from the Starý Haklovský fishpond, a shallow eutrophic water body near Budějovice City, Czech Republic. Selection by the predator was determined largely by prey body-size and density, but was also affected by prey types. Variable but significant changes in feeding rates were found in various size distribution and concentration of prey types. Percentages of small (80-235μm) and large (445-610μm) prey consumed were 42.47 and 3.85%, respectively. Starvation did not cause statistically significant difference. The feeding on Ceriodaphnia quadrangula showed significant difference between large and small prey. Feeding rate increased with increasing prey concentration.

  13. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner; Richard B Chandler; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  14. Modelling production per unit of food consumed in fish populations.

    PubMed

    Wiff, Rodrigo; Barrientos, Mauricio A; Milessi, Andrés C; Quiroz, J C; Harwood, John

    2015-01-21

    The ratio of production-to-consumption (ρ) reflects how efficiently a population can transform ingested food into biomass. Usually this ratio is estimated by separately integrating cohort per-recruit production and consumption per unit of biomass. Estimates of ρ from cohort analysis differ from those that consider the whole population, because fish populations are usually composed of cohorts that differ in their relative abundance. Cohort models for ρ also assume a stable age-structure and a constant population size (stationary condition). This may preclude their application to harvested populations, in which variations in fishing mortality and recruitment will affect age-structure. In this paper, we propose a different framework for estimating (ρ) in which production and consumption are modelled simultaneously to produce a population estimator of ρ. Food consumption is inferred from the physiological concepts underpinning the generalised von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF). This general framework allows the effects of different age-structures to be explored, with a stationary population as a special case. Three models with different complexities, depending mostly on what assumptions are made about age-structure, are explored. The full data model requires knowledge about food assimilation efficiency, parameters of the VBGF and the relative proportion of individuals at age a at time y (Py(a)). A simpler model, which requires less data, is based on the stationary assumption. Model results are compared with estimates from cohort models for ρ using simulated fish populations of different lifespans. The models proposed here were also applied to three fish populations that are targets of commercial fisheries in the south-east Pacific. Uncertainty in the estimation of ρ was evaluated using a resampling approach. Simulation showed that cohort and population models produce different estimates for ρ and those differences depend on lifespan, fishing mortality and

  15. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  16. Numerical integration of population models satisfying conservation laws: NSFD methods.

    PubMed

    Mickens, Ronald E

    2007-10-01

    Population models arising in ecology, epidemiology and mathematical biology may involve a conservation law, i.e. the total population is constant. In addition to these cases, other situations may occur for which the total population, asymptotically in time, approach a constant value. Since it is rarely the situation that the equations of motion can be analytically solved to obtain exact solutions, it follows that numerical techniques are needed to provide solutions. However, numerical procedures are only valid if they can reproduce fundamental properties of the differential equations modeling the phenomena of interest. We show that for population models, involving a dynamical conservation law the use of nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) methods allows the construction of discretization schemes such that they are dynamically consistent (DC) with the original differential equations. The paper will briefly discuss the NSFD methodology, the concept of DC, and illustrate their application to specific problems for population models. PMID:22876826

  17. Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.

  18. Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data.

    PubMed

    Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

    2011-09-01

    Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona. PMID:21155745

  19. A population growth model forced by random, episodic disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peckham, S. D.

    2011-12-01

    As a first step to quantify and better understand the nature of thresholds in ecosystems, a prototype population dynamics model has been developed and analyzed for the case where a population is subjected to random, episodic disturbances. This model assumes that disturbances occur at random times (following a Poisson event process) and have random magnitudes that determine the fraction of the population that survives the disturbance. Disturbances may be events such as fire, drought, disease or infestation. Between disturbances, the model assumes that population growth is deterministic and can be modeled by an exponential or logistic equation. The model is characterized by time, t, and four other parameters: the initial population size, N0, the per capita growth rate, r, the expected number of disturbance events per unit time, λ , and μ = E(X), where X is the random fraction (between 0 and 1) of the population that survives a given disturbance. What is nice about this simple, stochastic model is that it is mathematically tractable and clearly exhibits threshold behavior that can be computed explicitly in terms of the model parameters. In particular, the long-term behavior of the model is characterized by an easily-computed indicator that is a function of the model parameters. Whenever the model parameters are such that this indicator is less than zero, the expected value of the random population size declines over time and is unsustainable. But whenever it is greater than zero, the expected population size grows, despite the random disturbances. The case where the indicator is zero therefore represents a type of critical threshold for this problem that determines whether or not the population is likely to survive the disturbances. A number of analytic results will be presented along with numerical results from a large number of simulations.

  20. Models of plant populations and communities

    SciTech Connect

    Huston, M.

    1990-01-01

    This document is the overview of the plant section in the book, {und Individual-Based Models and Approaches in Ecology}. A brief description of each of the chapters is provided, as well as a comparison of the models presented in each chapter. Four of the six chapters deal with single species interactions, one dealt with a two species system (plants and pollinators) and one deals with multispecies interactions. Both i-state distribution models and i-state configuration models are discussed. (MHB)

  1. Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations.

    PubMed

    Galam, Serge; Javarone, Marco Alberto

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of radicalization is investigated within a mixed population composed of core and sensitive subpopulations. The latest includes first to third generation immigrants. Respective ways of life may be partially incompatible. In case of a conflict core agents behave as inflexible about the issue. In contrast, sensitive agents can decide either to live peacefully adjusting their way of life to the core one, or to oppose it with eventually joining violent activities. The interplay dynamics between peaceful and opponent sensitive agents is driven by pairwise interactions. These interactions occur both within the sensitive population and by mixing with core agents. The update process is monitored using a Lotka-Volterra-like Ordinary Differential Equation. Given an initial tiny minority of opponents that coexist with both inflexible and peaceful agents, we investigate implications on the emergence of radicalization. Opponents try to turn peaceful agents to opponents driving radicalization. However, inflexible core agents may step in to bring back opponents to a peaceful choice thus weakening the phenomenon. The required minimum individual core involvement to actually curb radicalization is calculated. It is found to be a function of both the majority or minority status of the sensitive subpopulation with respect to the core subpopulation and the degree of activeness of opponents. The results highlight the instrumental role core agents can have to hinder radicalization within the sensitive subpopulation. Some hints are outlined to favor novel public policies towards social integration. PMID:27166677

  2. Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of radicalization is investigated within a mixed population composed of core and sensitive subpopulations. The latest includes first to third generation immigrants. Respective ways of life may be partially incompatible. In case of a conflict core agents behave as inflexible about the issue. In contrast, sensitive agents can decide either to live peacefully adjusting their way of life to the core one, or to oppose it with eventually joining violent activities. The interplay dynamics between peaceful and opponent sensitive agents is driven by pairwise interactions. These interactions occur both within the sensitive population and by mixing with core agents. The update process is monitored using a Lotka-Volterra-like Ordinary Differential Equation. Given an initial tiny minority of opponents that coexist with both inflexible and peaceful agents, we investigate implications on the emergence of radicalization. Opponents try to turn peaceful agents to opponents driving radicalization. However, inflexible core agents may step in to bring back opponents to a peaceful choice thus weakening the phenomenon. The required minimum individual core involvement to actually curb radicalization is calculated. It is found to be a function of both the majority or minority status of the sensitive subpopulation with respect to the core subpopulation and the degree of activeness of opponents. The results highlight the instrumental role core agents can have to hinder radicalization within the sensitive subpopulation. Some hints are outlined to favor novel public policies towards social integration. PMID:27166677

  3. Contribution and pathways of diazotroph-derived nitrogen to zooplankton during the VAHINE mesocosm experiment in the oligotrophic New Caledonia lagoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunt, Brian P. V.; Bonnet, Sophie; Berthelot, Hugo; Conroy, Brandon J.; Foster, Rachel A.; Pagano, Marc

    2016-05-01

    In oligotrophic tropical and subtropical oceans, where strong stratification can limit the replenishment of surface nitrate, dinitrogen (N2) fixation by diazotrophs can represent a significant source of nitrogen (N) for primary production. The VAHINE (VAriability of vertical and tropHIc transfer of fixed N2 in the south-wEst Pacific) experiment was designed to examine the fate of diazotroph-derived nitrogen (DDN) in such ecosystems. In austral summer 2013, three large ( ˜ 50 m3) in situ mesocosms were deployed for 23 days in the New Caledonia lagoon, an ecosystem that typifies the low-nutrient, low-chlorophyll environment, to stimulate diazotroph production. The zooplankton component of the study aimed to measure the incorporation of DDN into zooplankton biomass, and assess the role of direct diazotroph grazing by zooplankton as a DDN uptake pathway. Inside the mesocosms, the diatom-diazotroph association (DDA) het-1 predominated during days 5-15 while the unicellular diazotrophic cyanobacteria UCYN-C predominated during days 15-23. A Trichodesmium bloom was observed in the lagoon (outside the mesocosms) towards the end of the experiment. The zooplankton community was dominated by copepods (63 % of total abundance) for the duration of the experiment. Using two-source N isotope mixing models we estimated a mean ˜ 28 % contribution of DDN to zooplankton nitrogen biomass at the start of the experiment, indicating that the natural summer peak of N2 fixation in the lagoon was already contributing significantly to the zooplankton. Stimulation of N2 fixation in the mesocosms corresponded with a generally low-level enhancement of DDN contribution to zooplankton nitrogen biomass, but with a peak of ˜ 73 % in mesocosm 1 following the UCYN-C bloom. qPCR analysis targeting four of the common diazotroph groups present in the mesocosms (Trichodesmium, het-1, het-2, UCYN-C) demonstrated that all four were ingested by copepod grazers, and that their abundance in copepod

  4. Migrant biomass and respiratory carbon flux by zooplankton and micronekton in the subtropical northeast Atlantic Ocean (Canary Islands)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ariza, A.; Garijo, J. C.; Landeira, J. M.; Bordes, F.; Hernández-León, S.

    2015-05-01

    Diel Vertical Migration (DVM) in marine ecosystems is performed by zooplankton and micronekton, promoting a poorly accounted export of carbon to the deep ocean. Major efforts have been made to estimate carbon export due to gravitational flux and to a lesser extent, to migrant zooplankton. However, migratory flux by micronekton has been largely neglected in this context, due to its time-consuming and difficult sampling. In this paper, we evaluated gravitational and migratory flux due to the respiration of zooplankton and micronekton in the northeast subtropical Atlantic Ocean (Canary Islands). Migratory flux was addressed by calculating the biomass of migrating components and measuring the electron transfer system (ETS) activity in zooplankton and dominant species representing micronekton (Euphausia gibboides, Sergia splendens and Lobianchia dofleini). Our results showed similar biomass in both components. The main taxa contributing to DVM within zooplankton were juvenile euphausiids, whereas micronekton were mainly dominated by fish, followed by adult euphausiids and decapods. The contribution to respiratory flux of zooplankton (3.4 ± 1.9 mg C m-2 d-1) was similar to that of micronekton (2.9 ± 1.0 mg C m-2 d-1). In summary, respiratory flux accounted for 53% (range 23-71) of the gravitational flux measured at 150 m depth (11.9 ± 5.8 mg C m-2 d-1). However, based on larger migratory ranges and gut clearance rates, micronekton are expected to be the dominant component that contributes to carbon export in deeper waters. Micronekton estimates in this paper as well as those in existing literature, although variable due to regional differences and difficulties in calculating their biomass, suggest that carbon fluxes driven by this community are important for future models of the biological carbon pump.

  5. Parasitic chytrids sustain zooplankton growth during inedible algal bloom

    PubMed Central

    Rasconi, Serena; Grami, Boutheina; Niquil, Nathalie; Jobard, Marlène; Sime-Ngando, Télesphore

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the quantitative impact of parasitic chytrids on the planktonic food web of two contrasting freshwater lakes during different algal bloom situations. Carbon-based food web models were used to investigate the effects of chytrids during the spring diatom bloom in Lake Pavin (oligo-mesotrophic) and the autumn cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Aydat (eutrophic). Linear inverse modeling was employed to estimate undetermined flows in both lakes. The Monte Carlo Markov chain linear inverse modeling procedure provided estimates of the ranges of model-derived fluxes. Model results confirm recent theories on the impact of parasites on food web function through grazers and recyclers. During blooms of “inedible” algae (unexploited by planktonic herbivores), the epidemic growth of chytrids channeled 19–20% of the primary production in both lakes through the production of grazer exploitable zoospores. The parasitic throughput represented 50% and 57% of the zooplankton diet, respectively, in the oligo-mesotrophic and in the eutrophic lakes. Parasites also affected ecological network properties such as longer carbon path lengths and loop strength, and contributed to increase the stability of the aquatic food web, notably in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Pavin. PMID:24904543

  6. Parasitic chytrids sustain zooplankton growth during inedible algal bloom.

    PubMed

    Rasconi, Serena; Grami, Boutheina; Niquil, Nathalie; Jobard, Marlène; Sime-Ngando, Télesphore

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the quantitative impact of parasitic chytrids on the planktonic food web of two contrasting freshwater lakes during different algal bloom situations. Carbon-based food web models were used to investigate the effects of chytrids during the spring diatom bloom in Lake Pavin (oligo-mesotrophic) and the autumn cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Aydat (eutrophic). Linear inverse modeling was employed to estimate undetermined flows in both lakes. The Monte Carlo Markov chain linear inverse modeling procedure provided estimates of the ranges of model-derived fluxes. Model results confirm recent theories on the impact of parasites on food web function through grazers and recyclers. During blooms of "inedible" algae (unexploited by planktonic herbivores), the epidemic growth of chytrids channeled 19-20% of the primary production in both lakes through the production of grazer exploitable zoospores. The parasitic throughput represented 50% and 57% of the zooplankton diet, respectively, in the oligo-mesotrophic and in the eutrophic lakes. Parasites also affected ecological network properties such as longer carbon path lengths and loop strength, and contributed to increase the stability of the aquatic food web, notably in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Pavin. PMID:24904543

  7. Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

    2016-06-01

    We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

  8. Population extinction in an inhomogeneous host-pathogen model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagarti, Trilochan

    2016-01-01

    We study inhomogeneous host-pathogen dynamics to model the global amphibian population extinction in a lake basin system. The lake basin system is modeled as quenched disorder. In this model we show that once the pathogen arrives at the lake basin it spreads from one lake to another, eventually spreading to the entire lake basin system in a wave like pattern. The extinction time has been found to depend on the steady state host population and pathogen growth rate. Linear estimate of the extinction time is computed. The steady state host population shows a threshold behavior in the interaction strength for a given growth rate.

  9. Modeling the brain morphology distribution in the general aging population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huizinga, W.; Poot, D. H. J.; Roshchupkin, G.; Bron, E. E.; Ikram, M. A.; Vernooij, M. W.; Rueckert, D.; Niessen, W. J.; Klein, S.

    2016-03-01

    Both normal aging and neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease cause morphological changes of the brain. To better distinguish between normal and abnormal cases, it is necessary to model changes in brain morphology owing to normal aging. To this end, we developed a method for analyzing and visualizing these changes for the entire brain morphology distribution in the general aging population. The method is applied to 1000 subjects from a large population imaging study in the elderly, from which 900 were used to train the model and 100 were used for testing. The results of the 100 test subjects show that the model generalizes to subjects outside the model population. Smooth percentile curves showing the brain morphology changes as a function of age and spatiotemporal atlases derived from the model population are publicly available via an interactive web application at agingbrain.bigr.nl.

  10. Stimulus-dependent Maximum Entropy Models of Neural Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Segev, Ronen; Schneidman, Elad

    2013-01-01

    Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model—a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population. PMID:23516339

  11. A Comparative Atlas of Zooplankton: Biological Patterns in the Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biggs, Douglas C.

    Large-scale biogeographic trends in the distribution of marine zooplankton are the subject of this work. As the subtitle of this book clarifies, it is an illustrated compendium of distributional patterns rather than a taxonomic atlas of invertebrate zoology. About half the work is devoted to Mercator projection maps of global distribution of various species of zooplankton and of chemical and physical properties of their environment. The other half is a treatise on plankton ecology as it relates to speciation.

  12. Seasonal cycles of zooplankton from San Francisco Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ambler, Julie W.; Cloern, James E.; Hutchinson, Anne

    1985-01-01

    Seasonal cycles of zooplankton abundance appear to be constant among years (1978–1981) and are similar in the deep (>10 m) channels and lateral shoals (<3 m). The seasonal zooplankton community dynamics are discussed in relation to: (1) river discharge which alters salinity distribution and residence time of plankton; (2) temperature which induces production and hatching of dormant copepod eggs; (3) coastal hydrography which brings neritic copepods of different zoogeographic affinities into the bay; and (4) seasonal cycles of phytoplankton.

  13. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  14. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  15. ZOOPLANKTON POPULATION DYNAMICS IN EXPERIMENTALLY TOXIFIED POND ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The response of aquatic systems to toxic contaminants cannot easily be predicted from laboratory bioassays. In ecosystems, contamination can occur in the concert of natural system processes and could have more or less dramatic effects, depending upon conditions such as system sta...

  16. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton II Daphnia ambigua Scourfield

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Angino, E.E.; Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.

    1973-01-01

    Calcium was the most important of 27 environmental components affecting density for a 50 week period. Simultaneous stepwise regression accounted for more variability in total number/1 and in the number of ovigerous females/1 than did any of the lag analyses; 1-week lag accounted for the greatest amount of variability in clutch size. Total number and clutch size were little affected by measures of food. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk b.v. Publishers.

  17. Population models of burrowing mayfly recolonization in Western Lake Erie

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Madenjian, C.P.; Schloesser, D.W.; Krieger, K.A.

    1998-01-01

    Burrowing mayflies, Hexagenia spp. (H. limbata and H. rigida), began recolonizing western Lake Erie during the 1990s. Survey data for mayfly nymph densities indicated that the population experienced exponential growth between 1991 and 1997. To predict the time to full recovery of the mayfly population, we fitted logistic models, ranging in carrying capacity from 600 to 2000 nymphs/m2, to these survey data. Based on the fitted logistic curves, we forecast that the mayfly population in western Lake Erie would achieve full recovery between years 1998 and 2000, depending on the carrying capacity of the western basin. Additionally, we estimated the mortality rate of nymphs in western Lake Erie during 1994 and then applied an age-based matrix model to the mayfly population. The results of the matrix population modeling corroborated the exponential growth model application in that both methods yielded an estimate of the population growth rate, r, in excess of 0.8 yr-1. This was the first evidence that mayfly populations are capable of recolonizing large aquatic ecosystems at rates comparable with those observed in much smaller lentic ecosystems. Our model predictions should prove valuable to managers of power plant facilities along the western basin in planning for mayfly emergences and to managers of the yellow perch (Perca flavescens) fishery in western Lake Erie.

  18. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    SciTech Connect

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  19. Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations.

    PubMed

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J; Sgro, Allyson E; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj

    2015-06-01

    Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales-from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations. PMID:26172740

  20. Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J.; Sgro, Allyson E.; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj

    2015-06-01

    Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales—from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations.

  1. A general method for modeling population dynamics and its applications.

    PubMed

    Shestopaloff, Yuri K

    2013-12-01

    Studying populations, be it a microbe colony or mankind, is important for understanding how complex systems evolve and exist. Such knowledge also often provides insights into evolution, history and different aspects of human life. By and large, populations' prosperity and decline is about transformation of certain resources into quantity and other characteristics of populations through growth, replication, expansion and acquisition of resources. We introduce a general model of population change, applicable to different types of populations, which interconnects numerous factors influencing population dynamics, such as nutrient influx and nutrient consumption, reproduction period, reproduction rate, etc. It is also possible to take into account specific growth features of individual organisms. We considered two recently discovered distinct growth scenarios: first, when organisms do not change their grown mass regardless of nutrients availability, and the second when organisms can reduce their grown mass by several times in a nutritionally poor environment. We found that nutrient supply and reproduction period are two major factors influencing the shape of population growth curves. There is also a difference in population dynamics between these two groups. Organisms belonging to the second group are significantly more adaptive to reduction of nutrients and far more resistant to extinction. Also, such organisms have substantially more frequent and lesser in amplitude fluctuations of population quantity for the same periodic nutrient supply (compared to the first group). Proposed model allows adequately describing virtually any possible growth scenario, including complex ones with periodic and irregular nutrient supply and other changing parameters, which present approaches cannot do. PMID:24057917

  2. Defining priorities for dog population management through mathematical modeling.

    PubMed

    Santos Baquero, O; Akamine, L A; Amaku, M; Ferreira, F

    2016-01-01

    We simulated dog population dynamics for a thirty-years period using a logistic growth model. Through sensitivity analyses, we determined the influence of the parameters used in the model. Carrying capacity was the most influential parameter in all simulations. In the owned-dog population, the influence of immigration, abandonment and births was 19%, 16% and 6% of the influence of the carrying capacity, respectively. In the sterilized owned-dog population, the influence of abandonment, female and male sterilization was 37%, 30% and 27% of the influence of the carrying capacity. In the stray population, the influence of abandonment, carrying capacity of the owned-dog population and adoption was 10%, 9% and 6% of the influence of the carrying capacity. In the sterilized stray population, the influence of births, female sterilization and male sterilization was 45%, 15% and 13% of the influence of the carrying capacity. Other parameters had lower influence values. Modification of the carrying capacity requires different interventions for the owned- and stray-dog populations. Dog trade control is a way to reduce immigration. The evaluation of sterilization effects must focus on the variations in the infertile population fraction. Adoption may improve the effects of the reduction in carrying capacity on the stray-dog population. PMID:26652574

  3. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  4. Zooplankton time series from the Strait of Georgia: Results from year-round sampling at deep water locations, 1990-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackas, David; Galbraith, Moira; Faust, Deborah; Masson, Diane; Young, Kelly; Shaw, William; Romaine, Stephen; Trudel, Marc; Dower, John; Campbell, Rob; Sastri, Akash; Bornhold Pechter, Elizabeth A.; Pakhomov, Evgeny; El-Sabaawi, Rana

    2013-08-01

    We have compiled and archived a large fraction of the zooplankton data collected from the Strait of Georgia during the past 50 years. Although the full dataset is very heterogeneous and gappy, sampling since 1990 has been consistent and frequent enough to examine interannual variability of the full zooplankton community. In this paper we focus on deep tows at mid-Strait deep-water locations, where vertical-migratory zooplankton can be captured at all times of day and all seasons. Average zooplankton dryweight biomass is high (∼9 g m-2) and varies seasonally between a winter minimum (∼4 g m-2) and a broad late-spring to autumn maximum (10-11 g m-2). Much of the biomass in all seasons consists of large crustaceans (copepods, euphausiids and amphipods with oceanic and subarctic zoogeographic affinities) that undergo strong diurnal or seasonal vertical migrations. Their interannual variability is very strong: about an order of magnitude within most zooplankton categories, and nearly two orders of magnitude for euphausiids, large copepods, and chaetognaths. Most (73%) of the interannual variability is accounted for by three principal components. The dominant mode (36%) is a low-frequency decadal fluctuation shared by most zooplankton taxa: declining from 1990 to 1995, increasing to a maximum ∼1999-2002, declining to a second minimum in 2005-2007, and then recovering to near-average levels by 2010. This zooplankton signal correlates positively with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) climate index, negatively with temperature anomalies throughout the water column, and positively (but less consistently) with survival anomalies of Strait of Georgia salmon and herring. Proximal causal mechanisms are less certain, but probably include estuarine advective exchange with outer coast populations, and timing match-mismatch within the Strait.

  5. Mathematical modeling in biological populations through branching processes. Application to salmonid populations.

    PubMed

    Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso

    2015-01-01

    This work deals with mathematical modeling through branching processes. We consider sexually reproducing animal populations where, in each generation, the number of progenitor couples is determined in a non-predictable environment. By using a class of two-sex branching processes, we describe their demographic dynamics and provide several probabilistic and inferential contributions. They include results about the extinction of the population and the estimation of the offspring distribution and its main moments. We also present an application to salmonid populations. PMID:24526259

  6. Generalized population models and the nature of genetic drift.

    PubMed

    Der, Ricky; Epstein, Charles L; Plotkin, Joshua B

    2011-09-01

    The Wright-Fisher model of allele dynamics forms the basis for most theoretical and applied research in population genetics. Our understanding of genetic drift, and its role in suppressing the deterministic forces of Darwinian selection has relied on the specific form of sampling inherent to the Wright-Fisher model and its diffusion limit. Here we introduce and analyze a broad class of forward-time population models that share the same mean and variance as the Wright-Fisher model, but may otherwise differ. The proposed class unifies and further generalizes a number of population-genetic processes of recent interest, including the Λ and Cannings processes. Even though these models all have the same variance effective population size, they encode a rich diversity of alternative forms of genetic drift, with significant consequences for allele dynamics. We characterize in detail the behavior of standard population-genetic quantities across this family of generalized models. Some quantities, such as heterozygosity, remain unchanged; but others, such as neutral absorption times and fixation probabilities under selection, deviate by orders of magnitude from the Wright-Fisher model. We show that generalized population models can produce startling phenomena that differ qualitatively from classical behavior - such as assured fixation of a new mutant despite the presence of genetic drift. We derive the forward-time continuum limits of the generalized processes, analogous to Kimura's diffusion limit of the Wright-Fisher process, and we discuss their relationships to the Kingman and non-Kingman coalescents. Finally, we demonstrate that some non-diffusive, generalized models are more likely, in certain respects, than the Wright-Fisher model itself, given empirical data from Drosophila populations. PMID:21718713

  7. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  8. Distinguishing between population bottleneck and population subdivision by a Bayesian model choice procedure.

    PubMed

    Peter, Benjamin M; Wegmann, Daniel; Excoffier, Laurent

    2010-11-01

    Although most natural populations are genetically subdivided, they are often analysed as if they were panmictic units. In particular, signals of past demographic size changes are often inferred from genetic data by assuming that the analysed sample is drawn from a population without any internal subdivision. However, it has been shown that a bottleneck signal can result from the presence of some recent immigrants in a population. It thus appears important to contrast these two alternative scenarios in a model choice procedure to prevent wrong conclusions to be made. We use here an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to infer whether observed patterns of genetic diversity in a given sample are more compatible with it being drawn from a panmictic population having gone through some size change, or from one or several demes belonging to a recent finite island model. Simulations show that we can correctly identify samples drawn from a subdivided population in up to 95% of the cases for a wide range of parameters. We apply our model choice procedure to the case of the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and find conclusive evidence that Western and Eastern chimpanzee samples are drawn from a spatially subdivided population. PMID:20735743

  9. OASIS in the sea: Measurement of the acoustic reflectivity of zooplankton with concurrent optical imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaffe, J. S.; Ohman, M. D.; De Robertis, A.

    A new instrument Optical-Acoustic Submersible Imaging System (OASIS) has been developed for three-dimensional acoustic tracking of zooplankton with concurrent optical imaging to verify the identity of the insonified organisms. OASIS also measures in situ target strengths (TS) of freely swimming zooplankton and nekton of known identity and 3-D orientation. The system consists of a three-dimensional acoustic imaging system (FishTV), a sensitive optical CCD camera with red-filtered strobe illumination, and ancillary oceanographic sensors. The sonar triggers the acquisition of an optical image when it detects the presence of a significant target in the precise location where the camera, strobe and sonar are co-registered. Acoustic TS can then be related to the optical image, which permits identification of the animal and its 3-D aspect. The system was recently deployed (August 1996) in Saanich Inlet, B.C., Canada. Motile zooplankton and nekton were imaged with no evidence of reaction to or avoidance of the OASIS instrument package. Target strengths of many acoustic reflectors were recorded in parallel with the optical images, triggered by the presence of an animal in the correct location of the sonar system. Inspection of the optical images, corroborated with zooplankton sampling with a MOCNESS net, revealed that the joint optically and acoustically sensed taxa at the site were the euphausiid Euphausia pacifica, the gammarid amphipod Orchomene obtusa, and a gadid fish. The simultaneous optical and acoustic images permitted an exact correlation of TS and taxa. Computer simulations from a model of the backscattered strength from euphausiids are in good agreement with the observed data.

  10. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  11. Stable isotope analysis of 1987-1991 zooplankton samples and bowhead whale tissues. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schell, D.M.

    1992-06-01

    Stable isotope analyses of bowhead whale tissue samples and bowhead whale prey organisms collected over the years 1987 to 1991 were used to provide detail on the isotope ratio gradients evident in the arctic Alaskan zooplankton and to verify previous findings regarding the growth rates and age determination techniques developed for bowhead whales. Zooplankton of the Bering and Chukchi seas are enriched in (13)C relative to the eastern Beaufort Sea. The analysis of baleen from bowhead whales taken between 1987 to 1990 indicate that the whales are slow-growing and the young animals between year one and about six to seven years of age, undergo a period of little or no linear growth. The authors estimate that bowheads require 16-18 years to reach the length of sexual maturity, i.e., 13-14 m. From baleen Delta(13C) cycles, a 20 year record of the isotope ratios in the phytoplankton of the northern Bering and Chukchi seas was constructed. The long-term record has been compared with the temperature anomalies in surface waters of the Bering Sea. The Delta(13C) of the zooplankton is inversely correlated with temperature and refutes current models attempting to relate ocean temperature, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with the Delta(13C) of ocean sediment organic matter.

  12. A decade of predatory control of zooplankton species composition of Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Makarewicz, Joseph C.; Bertram, Paul; Lewis, Theodore; Brown, Edward H., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    From 1983 to 1992, 71 species representing 38 genera from the Calanoida, Cladocera, Cyclopoida, Mysidacea, Rotifera, Mollusca and Harpacticoida comprised the offshore zooplankton community of Lake Michigan. Our data demonstrate that the composition and abundance of the calanoid community after 1983 is not unlike that of 1960s and that species diversity of the calanoid community is more diverse than the cladoceran community in the 1990s as compared to the early 1980s. Even though the relative biomass of the cladocerans has remained similar over the 1983-1993 period, the species diversity and evenness of the Cladocera community in the early 1990s is unlike anything that has been previously reported for Lake Michigan. Cladocera dominance is centered in one species, Daphnia galeata mendotae, and only three species of Cladocera were observed in the pelagic region of the lake in 1991 and 1992. Nutrient levels, phytoplankton biomass, and the abundance of planktivorous alewife and bloater chub and Bythotrephes are examined as possible causes of these changes in zooplankton species composition. The increase in Rotifera biomass, but not Crustacea, was correlated with an increase in relative biomass of unicellular algae. Food web models suggest Bythotrephes will cause Lake Michigan's plankton to return to a community similar to that of the 1970s; that is Diaptomus dominated. Such a change has occurred. However, correlational analysis suggest that alewife and bloater chubs (especially juveniles) are affecting size and biomass of larger species of zooplankton as well as Bythotrephes.

  13. Comparison of acoustic and net sampling systems to determine patterns in zooplankton distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutor, Malinda; Cowles, Timothy J.; Peterson, William T.; Lamb, Jesse

    2005-10-01

    An analysis was conducted of the strengths and limitations of acoustic methods to determine biomass and taxonomic distribution patterns over the Oregon continental shelf. Measurements of volume backscatter from two different acoustic instruments were compared with each other and with predicted volume backscatter calculated from a coincident net tow. Spatially and temporally coincident data were collected from a six-frequency bioacoustic system (Tracor Acoustic Profiling System (TAPS)) and from a 1 m2 Multiple Opening Closing Net and Environmental Sensing System (MOCNESS). The combined net/acoustic tows were conducted over the Oregon continental shelf in August 2001, during both day and night. The TAPS was mounted on the upper frame of the MOCNESS and ensonified a volume of water directly in front of the net mouth. A four-frequency echosounder (Hydroacoustic Technologies Inc. (HTI)) with downward looking transducers was towed off the port side of the ship during the MOCNESS/TAPS tows. Fine-scale vertical distributions of zooplankton that were resolved acoustically were not apparent within the integrated depth strata of the individual MOCNESS net samples. The taxonomic and size composition of the zooplankton community had strong effects on volume backscatter (SV), although the magnitude of SV was not linearly related to zooplankton biomass. Predicted SV calculated from scattering models and the contents of the MOCNESS nets agreed best (sometimes within 5 dB) with measured SV from the TAPS at 420 and 700 kHz and measured SV at 420 kHz from the HTI.

  14. The vertical distribution of zooplankton in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopkins, Thomas L.

    1982-09-01

    The zooplankton community in the eastern Gulf of Mexico was investigated to determine the quantity and taxonomic composition of forage available to higher trophic levels and to provide a data base for future trophodynamic modelling. Standing stock (1.2 g m -2, dw) in the upper 1000 m is in the range for oligotrophic low-latitude boundary currents but is greater than in central gyre areas. Abundance decreases exponentially with depth, over half the biomass occuring in the upper 200 m. Diel variations are apparent, the greatest differences in biomass occuring in the upper 50 m and at 300 to 350 m. Copepods were dominant, contributing over 80% of the number and half the net-caught biomass. The zooplankton community is diverse, 21 genera individually exceeding 1% of the biomass in the 0 to 100-m layer. Grazers (herbivores, detritivores, omnivores) were 66% of the 0 to 1000-m standing stock and carnivores 34%, their biomass in the epipelagic zone above the base of the thermocline (150 m) at night increasing 46 and 57%, respectively. Zooplankton biomass available as forage for higher trophic levels is most concentrated in the upper 50 m, whereas, paradoxically, the zooplanktivorous micronekton, the myctophid fishes in particular, are centered deeper, primarily between 50 and 150 m.

  15. L-Lake zooplankton: L-Lake/Steel Creek Biological Monitoring Program, November 1985--December 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Bowers, J.A.; Bowen, M.

    1992-03-01

    The L- Lake Biological Monitoring Program was designed to meet environmental regulatory requirements associated with the restart of L-Reactor and address portions of Section 316(a) of the Clean Water Act, which requires an applicant for a discharge permit to provide scientific evidence that the discharge causes no significant impact on the indigenous ecosystem. The Department of Energy (DOE) must demonstrate that the discharge of L-Reactor affluent into L Lake will not inhibit the eventual establishment of a ``Balanced Biological Community`` (BBC) in at least 50% of the lake. This report details results of monitoring zooplankton populations in L-Lake.

  16. Simple model of population vulnerability during crisis relocation. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schmidt, L.A.

    1983-01-01

    The objective of the study is to estimate the cost in survivors of short warning leading to attack during full nationwide crises relocation. A simulation model of traffic flow over the national interstate road network was developed to predict population vulnerability during a crisis relocation. The model predicts large initial rates of reduction in nationwide vulnerability (half the at-risk population is evacuated in 21 hours) due to the large number of risk areas, reception areas, and over the road network to achieve the traffic plan assumptions of the model are discussed. No unreasonable problems are uncovered in achieving the major production of the model.

  17. Statistical physics model of an evolving population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sznajd-Weron, K.; Pȩkalski, A.

    1999-12-01

    There are many possible approaches by a theoretical physicist to problems of biological evolution. Some focus on physically interesting features, like the self-organized criticality (P. Bak, K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. Lett 71 (1993); N. Vadewalle, M. Ausloos, Physica D 90 (1996) 262). Others put on more effort taking into account factors considered by biologists to be important in determining one or another aspect of biological evolution (D. Derrida, P.G. Higgs, J. Phys. A 24 (1991) L985; I. Mróz, A. Pȩkalski, K. Sznajd-Weron, Phys. Rev. Lett. 76 (1996) 3025; A. Pȩkalski, Physica A 265 (1999) 255). The intrinsic complexity of the problem enforces nevertheless drastic simplifications. Certain consolation may come from the fact that the mathematical models used by biologists themselves are quite often even more “coarse grained”.

  18. A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

    2008-01-01

    The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

  19. Developing population models with data from marked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hae Yeong Ryu; Kevin T. Shoemaker; Eva Kneip; Anna Pidgeon; Patricia Heglund; Brooke Bateman; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya

    2016-01-01

    Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method

  20. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  1. Effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on an aquatic ecosystem: acute toxicity and community-level toxic impact tests of benzo[a]pyrene using lake zooplankton community.

    PubMed

    Ikenaka, Yoshinori; Sakamoto, Masaki; Nagata, Takamaru; Takahashi, Hirokazu; Miyabara, Yuichi; Hanazato, Takayuki; Ishizuka, Mayumi; Isobe, Tomohiko; Kim, Jun-Woo; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon

    2013-02-01

    We estimated acute toxicity of benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) using two cladoceran species, Ceriodaphnia reticulata and Daphnia magna, and also analyzed its impact on zooplankton community throughout an exposure experiment using small-scale mesocosms. LC(50) of B[a]P for C. reticulata and D. magna was 4.3 and 4.7 µg/l, respectively. However, individuals fed with Chlorella showed higher LC(50), 6.1 µg/l for C. reticulata and 8.0 µg/l for D. magna. In the exposure experiment, we examined the impact of B[a]P on zooplankton community using conceivable concentrations in the environment (5 and 10 µg/l) using typical zooplankton community in eutrophicated systems. Despite the residence time of B[a]P in the water column was short as < 4 days, application of B[a]P induced decrease of zooplankton abundance. However, the recovery pattern was different among cladocerans and rotifers. Consequently, B[a]P showed insecticide-like impacts, suppressing cladoceran populations and inducing the dominance of rotifers particularly under high concentration (10 µg/l). Results have suggested that, even such short duration of B[a]P in the water body can have impact on zooplankton abundance and community structure. Since B[a]P easily precipitate to the bottom and rapidly disappears from the water body, careful monitoring and further assessment of the potential toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are necessary. PMID:23358147

  2. Short term changes in zooplankton community during the summer-autumn transition in the open NW Mediterranean Sea: species composition, abundance and diversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raybaud, V.; Nival, P.; Mousseau, L.; Gubanova, A.; Altukhov, D.; Khvorov, S.; Ibañez, F.; Andersen, V.

    2008-05-01

    Short term changes in zooplankton community were investigated at a fixed station in offshore waters of the Ligurian Sea (Dynaproc 2 cruise, September-October 2004). Mesozooplankton was sampled with vertical WP2 hauls (200 µm mesh-size) and large mesozooplankton, macrozooplankton and micronekton with a BIONESS multinet sampler (500 µm mesh-size). Temporal variations of total biomass, species composition and abundance of major taxa were studied. Intrusions of low salinity water masses were observed two times during the cruise. The first one, which was the most important, was associated with changes in zooplankton community composition. Among copepods, the abundance of Calocalanus, Euchaeta, Heterorhabdus, Mesocalanus, Nannocalanus, Neocalanus, Pleuromamma and also calanoid copepodites increased markedly. Among non-copepod taxa, only small ostracods abundance increased. After this low salinity event, abundance of all taxa nearly returned to their initial values. The influence of salinity on each zooplankton taxon was confirmed by a statistical analysis (Perry's method). Shannon diversity index, Pielou evenness and species richness were used to describe temporal variations of large copepod (>500 µm) diversity. Shannon index and Pielou evenness decreased at the beginning of the low salinity water intrusions, but not species richness. We suggest that low salinity water masses contained its own zooplankton community and passed through the sampling area, thus causing the replacement of zooplankton population.

  3. Short term changes in zooplankton community during the summer-autumn transition in the open NW Mediterranean Sea: species composition, abundance and diversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raybaud, V.; Nival, P.; Mousseau, L.; Gubanova, A.; Altukhov, D.; Khvorov, S.; Ibañez, F.; Andersen, V.

    2008-12-01

    Short term changes in zooplankton community were investigated at a fixed station in offshore waters of the Ligurian Sea (DYNAPROC 2 cruise, September-October 2004). Mesozooplankton were sampled with vertical WP-II hauls (200 μm mesh-size) and large mesozooplankton, macrozooplankton and micronekton with a BIONESS multinet sampler (500 μm mesh-size). Temporal variations of total biomass, species composition and abundance of major taxa were studied. Intrusions of low salinity water masses were observed two times during the cruise. The first one, which was the most intense, was associated with changes in zooplankton community composition. Among copepods, the abundance of Calocalanus, Euchaeta, Heterorhabdus, Mesocalanus, Nannocalanus, Neocalanus, Pleuromammaand also calanoid copepodites increased markedly. Among non-copepod taxa, only small ostracods abundance increased. After this low salinity event, abundance of all taxa nearly returned to their initial values. The influence of salinity on each zooplankton taxon was confirmed by a statistical analysis (Perry's method). The Shannon diversity index, Pielou evenness and species richness were used to describe temporal variations of large copepod (>500 μm) diversity. The Shannon index and Pielou evenness decreased at the beginning of the low salinity water intrusions, but not species richness. We suggest that low salinity water masses contained its own zooplankton community and passed through the sampling area, thus causing a replacement of the zooplankton population.

  4. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals. PMID:26606790

  5. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  6. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  7. Student-Teacher Population Growth Model. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zabrowski, Edward K.; And Others

    This mathematical model of the educational system calculates information on population groups by sex, race, age, and educational level. The model can be used to answer questions about what would happen to the flows of students and teachers through the formal educational system if these flows are changed at various stages. The report discusses the…

  8. A POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PARTICULATE MATTER: SHEDS-PM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has developed a population exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) that will be publicly available in Fall 2002. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS-PM) model uses a probabilistic approach ...

  9. Zooplankton structure and dynamics in two estuaries from the Atlantic coast in relation to multi-stressors exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. R.; Guilhermino, L.; Morgado, F.

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the response of pelagic zooplankton to different levels of abiotic multi-stressors in the North Atlantic coast, taking advantage of the comparison of the communities of two adjacent estuaries with different levels of historical pollution (estuaries of Minho and Lima Rivers). The zooplankton community structure, composition and temporal variation were comparatively investigated for 15 months, using different net meshes. Several abiotic factors were measured in situ and water samples were simultaneously collected for determination of nutrients and chlorophyll a. The overall results revealed a diverse community represented by species that have been found in subtropical and temperate zones. Although the highest diversity was observed in the Lima estuary, supported by higher contributions of marine taxa, the total zooplankton biomass was found to be significantly higher in the Minho estuary. The salinity gradient differences between estuaries, associated to significant differences in water nutrients levels, were found to be the main forcing factors affecting micro and mesozooplankton. Considering the importance of the impacts resulting from abiotic variation on the basis of aquatic food webs, the present investigation represented a case-study, based in two contrasting estuaries, one strongly influenced by freshwater discharges (Minho estuary) and the other with higher salinity levels (Lima estuary), contributing to a better understanding of the effects of multi-stressors on pelagic zooplankton communities, providing useful information for studies related with climate change impacts, biogeography, conservation and providing data contributing to the improvement of pelagic fisheries management models.

  10. Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Jankovic, Masha; Petrovskii, Sergei; Banerjee, Malay

    2016-08-01

    Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system's dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations. PMID:27154920

  11. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. PMID:23865502

  12. Statistical validation of structured population models for Daphnia magna

    PubMed Central

    Adoteye, Kaska; Banks, H.T.; Cross, Karissa; Eytcheson, Stephanie; Flores, Kevin B.; LeBlanc, Gerald A.; Nguyen, Timothy; Ross, Chelsea; Smith, Emmaline; Stemkovski, Michael; Stokely, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    In this study we use statistical validation techniques to verify density-dependent mechanisms hypothesized for populations of Daphnia magna. We develop structured population models that exemplify specific mechanisms, and use multi-scale experimental data in order to test their importance. We show that fecundity and survival rates are affected by both time-varying density-independent factors, such as age, and density-dependent factors, such as competition. We perform uncertainty analysis and show that our parameters are estimated with a high degree of confidence. Further, we perform a sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in fecundity and survival rates affect population size and age-structure. PMID:26092608

  13. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  14. Multistability in simplest models of the population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhdanova, Oksana L.; Frisman, Efim Ya.

    2016-06-01

    The investigation of dynamics behavior of population number and genetic structure has been conducted for a homogeneous limited population influenced by density-dependent selection in single di-allelic genetic locus. The detailed investigation of the mechanisms of the loss of stability in the considered model is carried out. It is shown that coexistence of several different asymptotic dynamic regimes (with own attraction basins) is possible in numerous enough parametric regions which are meaningful biologically.

  15. Nitrogen isotopic ratios in fecal pellets produced by marine zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Altabet, M.A. ); Small, L.F. )

    1990-01-01

    At each site and in every season studied, zooplankton in the upper ocean produced fecal pellets that were 1.3% lower in {delta}{sup 15}N than their body tissue but 2.2% higher than their apparent food source. {sup 14}N-containing molecules are evidently preferentially assimilated in zooplankton intestinal tracts, though other isotopic effects must account for the enrichment in {sup 15}N of these organisms relative to their food. These results also show zooplankton to be important modifiers of nitrogen isotopic ratios for marine particulate matter. {delta}{sup 15}N values for sinking particles and fecal pellets are similar, supporting the perspective that macrozooplankton are important factors in producing and processing particles that sink into the ocean's interior and sediments. In contrast, the relationship in {delta}{sup 15}N between fecal pellets and suspended particles in the euphotic zone is more variable. It appears that zooplankton select food particles of varying {delta}{sup 15}N from the suspended particle pool. These results suggest that both zooplankton feeding behavior and their digestive chemistry are important in determining the composition of sinking particulate matter in the ocean with respect to the suspended particle source in the euphotic zone.

  16. Mixture regression models for closed population capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Tounkara, Fodé; Rivest, Louis-Paul

    2015-09-01

    In capture-recapture studies, the use of individual covariates has been recommended to get stable population estimates. However, some residual heterogeneity might still exist and ignoring such heterogeneity could lead to underestimating the population size (N). In this work, we explore two new models with capture probabilities depending on both covariates and unobserved random effects, to estimate the size of a population. Inference techniques including Horvitz-Thompson estimate and confidence intervals for the population size, are derived. The selection of a particular model is carried out using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). First, we extend the random effect model of Darroch et al. (1993, Journal of American Statistical Association 88, 1137-1148) to handle unit level covariates and discuss its limitations. The second approach is a generalization of the traditional zero-truncated binomial model that includes a random effect to account for an unobserved heterogeneity. This approach provides useful tools for inference about N, since key quantities such as moments, likelihood functions and estimates of N and their standard errors have closed form expressions. Several models for the unobserved heterogeneity are available and the marginal capture probability is expressed using the Logit and the complementary Log-Log link functions. The sensitivity of the inference to the specification of a model is also investigated through simulations. A numerical example is presented. We compare the performance of the proposed estimator with that obtained under model Mh of Huggins (1989 Biometrika 76, 130-140). PMID:25963047

  17. Dynamical models of a sample of Population II stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levison, H. F.; Richstone, D. O.

    1986-09-01

    Dynamical models are constructed in order to investigate the implications of recent kinematic data of distant Population II stars on the emissivity distribution of those stars. Models are constructed using a modified Schwarzschild method in two extreme scale-free potentials, spherical and E6 elliptical. Both potentials produce flat rotation curves and velocity dispersion profiles. In all models, the distribution of stars in this sample is flat. Moreover, it is not possible to construct a model with a strictly spheroidal emissivity distribution. Most models have dimples at the poles. The dynamics of the models indicate that the system is supported by both the third integral and z angular momentum.

  18. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  19. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-01

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  20. Population estimates for Bangladesh: The use of a specific transitional population model.

    PubMed

    Gupta, A D; Roy, S G

    1976-03-01

    Summary The development of population in Bangladesh was affected by a succession of man-made and natural calamities, such as the Bengal Famine of 1943, refugee movements following the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, devastating floods and cyclones around 1970, and the military action during the war of liberation. Though there had been a tradition of census taking and vital registration in Bangladesh, as part of the Indian sub-continent, extending for over a century, vital registration was so deficient as to be almost valueless, and there were gross misstatements of age and under-enumeration in the censuses. In the census of 1941, on the other hand, political manoeuvring led to a substantial overcount of the population. In this paper, Bangladesh population trends are studied within the broader framework of the subcontinent, taking account of plausible differentials. A considerable element of uncertainty was introduced into growth trends as a result of variations in the completeness of census-taking and of unrecorded refugee and labour movements across open land borders. In this connection the substantial inflationary bias associated with techniques of population estimation using the dual record system is discussed. The application of stable population models is even less justified in Bangladesh with its history of declining mortality. A transitional age structure model was constructed on the basis of the information available on declining mortality and accelerating growth and the model was made even more specific by modifications which took care of the impact of recent calamities and of unrecorded migration. The population base of the census of 1961 was adjusted in accordance with this model. The local mortality age pattern was used in projecting the population by sex and age groups to the date at which the census was originally due to be taken in 1971, and to the date when it was actually taken in March 1974. The post-1970 calamities and their effect on

  1. Model estimation of energy flow in Oregon coastal seabird populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiens, J.A.; Scott, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    A computer simulation model was used to explore the patterns and magnitudes of population density changes and population energy demands in Oregon populations of Sooty Shear-waters, Leach?s Storm-Petrels, Brandt?s Cormorants, and Common Murres. The species differ in seasonal distribution and abundance, with shearwaters attaining high densities during their migratory movements through Oregon waters, and murres exhibiting the greatest seasonal stability in population numbers. On a unit area basis, annual energy flow is greatest through murre and cormorant populations. However, because shearwaters occupy a larger area during their transit, they dominate the total energy flow through the four-species seabird ?community.?.....Consumption of various prey types is estimated by coupling model output of energy demands with information on dietary habits. This analysis suggests that murres annually consume nearly twice as many herring as any other prey and consume approximately equal quantities of anchovy, smelt, cod, and rockfish. Cormorants consume a relatively small quantity of bottom-dwelling fish, while stormpetrels take roughly equal quantities of euphausiids and hydrozoans. Anchovies account for 43% of the 62,506 metric tons of prey the four species are estimated to consume annually; 86% of this anchovy consumption is by shearwaters. The consumption of pelagic fishes by these four populations within the neritic zone may represent as much as 22% of the annual production of these fish.

  2. Imazethapyr and imazapic, bispyribac-sodium and penoxsulam: zooplankton and dissipation in subtropical rice paddy water.

    PubMed

    Reimche, Geovane B; Machado, Sérgio L O; Oliveira, Maria Angélica; Zanella, Renato; Dressler, Valderi Luiz; Flores, Erico M M; Gonçalves, Fábio F; Donato, Filipe F; Nunes, Matheus A G

    2015-05-01

    Herbicides are very effective at eliminating weed and are largely used in rice paddy around the world, playing a fundamental role in maximizing yield. Therefore, considering the flooded environment of rice paddies, it is necessary to understand the side effects on non-target species. Field experiment studies were carried out during two rice growing seasons in order to address how the commonly-used herbicides imazethapyr and imazapic, bispyribac-sodium and penoxsulam, used at recommended dosage, affect water quality and the non-target zooplankton community using outdoor rice field microcosm set-up. The shortest (4.9 days) and longest (12.2 days) herbicide half-life mean, estimated of the dissipation rate (k) is shown for imazethapyr and bispyribac-sodium, respectively. Some water quality parameters (pH, conductivity, hardness, BOD5, boron, potassium, magnesium, phosphorus and chlorides) achieved slightly higher values at the herbicide treatment. Zooplankton community usually quickly recovered from the tested herbicide impact. Generally, herbicides led to an increase of cladocera, copepods and nauplius population, while rotifer population decreased, with recovery at the end of the experiment (88 days after herbicide treatment). PMID:25659307

  3. Zooplankton Successions in Neighboring Lakes with Contrasting Impacts of Amphibian and Fish Predators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schabetsberger, Robert; Grill, Susanne; Hauser, Gabriele; Wukits, Petra

    2006-06-01

    Two pairs of neighboring subalpine lakes located in the Northern Calcareous Alps of Austria were investigated. Each pair comprised a deeper lake containing European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus ), and a corresponding shallower lake harboring Alpine newts (Triturus alpestris ) as top predators. Plankton successions within fish and amphibian lakes differed markedly from each other. Throughout the year rotifers numerically dominated within the minnow lakes, while pigmented copepods (Genera Heterocope, Acanthodiaptomus , Arctodiaptomus , Mixodiaptomus ) and Daphnia were prominent in the amphibian lakes, at least early during the ice-free period. We argue that size-selective predation by minnows was the ultimate reason for this predominance of smaller zooplankton. While one of the minnow lakes was characterized by a succession of spatially and temporally segregated rotifer species, the other minnow lake permitted the development of populations of small-sized Bosmina and Ceriodaphnia during summer, probably due to the existence of a strong oxycline allowing zooplankton crustaceans to avoid predation from shore-based shoals of minnows. Once trout were introduced into this lake, minnows were visibly reduced in abundance. Bosmina and Ceriodaphnia disappeared and Daphnia together with a predacious copepod (Heterocope ) emerged either from egg banks or arrived from nearby source populations. We argue that the crustacean communities within the fishless lakes were adapted to the comparatively weak predation rates of Alpine newts.

  4. Effects of hydrology on zooplankton communities in high-mountain ponds, Mount Rainier National Park, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Girdner, Scott; Larson, Gary L.

    1995-01-01

    Ten high-mountain ponds in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington State, were studied from ice-out in June through September1992 to investigate the influences of fluctuating pond volumes on zooplankton communities. All of the ponds were at maximum volume immediately after ice-out. The temporary pond with the shortest wet phase was inhabited by rotifer taxa with short generation times and a crustacean taxon with the ability to encyst as drought-resistant resting bodies at immature stages of development. Dominant zooplankton taxa in three other temporary ponds and six permanent ponds were similar. Rotifer densities typically were lower in temporary ponds relative to those in permanent ponds, although Brachionus urceolaris was abundant shortly before the temporary ponds dried. Large volume loss was associated with large declines in total abundances of crustacean populations. Daphnia rosea was not present in temporary ponds following fall recharge. In deep-permanent ponds, copepods had slower developmental rates, smaller temporal changes in total abundances of crustacean populations and two additional large-bodied crustacean taxa were present relative to the characteristics of crustacean communities in shallow-permanent ponds. Owing to their small sizes and sensitivity to environmental change, collectively ponds such as these may provide an early signal of long-term climate change in aquatic systems.

  5. Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cáceres, Manuel O.

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

  6. Population based models of cortical drug response: insights from anaesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Bojak, Ingo; Liley, David T. J.

    2008-01-01

    A great explanatory gap lies between the molecular pharmacology of psychoactive agents and the neurophysiological changes they induce, as recorded by neuroimaging modalities. Causally relating the cellular actions of psychoactive compounds to their influence on population activity is experimentally challenging. Recent developments in the dynamical modelling of neural tissue have attempted to span this explanatory gap between microscopic targets and their macroscopic neurophysiological effects via a range of biologically plausible dynamical models of cortical tissue. Such theoretical models allow exploration of neural dynamics, in particular their modification by drug action. The ability to theoretically bridge scales is due to a biologically plausible averaging of cortical tissue properties. In the resulting macroscopic neural field, individual neurons need not be explicitly represented (as in neural networks). The following paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction to the mean field population modelling of drug action and its recent successes in modelling anaesthesia. PMID:19003456

  7. Modeling population access to New Zealand public hospitals

    PubMed Central

    Brabyn, Lars; Skelly, Chris

    2002-01-01

    This paper demonstrates a method for estimating the geographical accessibility of public hospitals. Cost path analysis was used to determine the minimum travel time and distance to the closest hospital via a road network. This analysis was applied to 38,000 census enumeration district centroids in New Zealand allowing geographical access to be linked to local populations. Average time and distance statistics have been calculated for local populations by modeling the total travel of a population if everybody visited a hospital once. These types of statistics can be generated for different population groups and enable comparisons to be made between regions. This study has shown that the northern and southern parts of New Zealand have high average travel times to hospital services. PMID:12459048

  8. The MIUSCAT stellar population models: constraints from optical photometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricciardelli, E.; Vazdekis, A.; Cenarro, A. J.; Falcón-Barroso, J.

    2013-05-01

    We present the spectral extension of our stellar population synthesis models based on the MILES and CaT empirical stellar spectral libraries. For this purpose we combine these two libraries with the Indo-US to construct composite stellar spectra to feed our models. The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) computed with these models and the originally published models are combined to construct composite SEDs for single-age, single-metallicity stellar populations (SSPs) covering the range λλ3465 -- 9469 Å at resolution FWHM =2.51 Å. We also show a comprehensive comparison of the MIUSCAT models with photometric data of globular clusters and early-type galaxies. The models compare remarkably well with the integrated colours of Milky Way globular clusters in the optical range. On the other hand we find that the colour relations of nearby early-type galaxies are still a challenge for present-day stellar population synthesis models. We investigate a number of possible explanations and establish the importance of α-enhanced models to bring down the discrepancy with observations.

  9. High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

    PubMed

    Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agustī, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

    2014-01-01

    High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean. PMID:25309996

  10. Influence of a multiyear event of low salinity on the zooplankton from Mexican eco-regions of the California Current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaniegos, Bertha E.

    2009-12-01

    Data are presented from the southern part of the California Current System (CCS) for the period 1997-2007, derived from the IMECOCAL monitoring program. Apart from El Niño 1997 to 1998, and La Niña 1998-1999 the strongest perturbation occurred in 2002 due to an intrusion of subarctic water affecting all the CCS. The response of zooplankton biomass to the strong cooling and freshening of the upper layer was an immediate drop followed by a progressive recovery between 2003 and 2007. Though the low salinity influence ended in 2006, the increased zooplankton trend continued, reinforced by increased upwelling activity beginning 2005 off north Baja California region (30-32°N) and beginning 2006 off central Baja California (24-30°N). Multiple regression analysis was done between regional variables and Upwelling Index (UI) and two basin-scale proxies: the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The significant influence of the NPGO on surface salinity, salinity stratification, zooplankton volume and secondary consumers (zooplankton carnivores) suggests a basin scale control on these variables more than local mechanisms. The signature of the NPGO was also evident in the base of the trophic web, but more related to the group of crustacean herbivores in the north eco-region, and the tunicates in central Baja California. In this last region, the effect from NPGO on the zooplankton volume and tunicates was antagonist with UI indicative of similar importance of basin and local processes. However, when the time interval is limited to the post-subarctic intrusion (2003-2007) the significance of multiple regression models and physical variables was lost. Therefore, though data and bio-physical coupling analysis off Baja California suggest a better relation with NPGO compared to PDO, it is still not sufficient to explain the magnitude of the perturbation observed in 2002.

  11. Zooplankton Responses to Low-Oxygen Condition upon a Shallow Oxygen Minimum Zone in the Upwelling Region off Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidalgo, P.; Escribano, R.

    2015-12-01

    A shallow oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) is a critical component in the coastal upwelling ecosystem off Chile. This OMZ causes oxygen-deficient water entering the photic layer and affecting plankton communities having low tolerance to hypoxia. Variable, and usually species-dependent, responses of zooplankton to hypoxia condition can be found. Most dominant species avoid hypoxia by restricting their vertical distribution, while others can temporarily enter and even spent part of their life cycle within the OMZ. Whatever the case, low-oxygen conditions appear to affect virtually all vital rates of zooplankton, such as mortality, fecundity, development and growth and metabolism, and early developmental stages seem more sensitive, with significant consequences for population and community dynamics. For most study cases, these effects are negative at individual and population levels. Observations and predictions upon increasing upwelling intensity over the last 20-30 years indicate a gradual shoaling of the OMZ, and so that an expected enhancement of these negative effects of hypoxia on the zooplankton community. Unknown processes of adaptation and community-structure adjustments are expected to take place with uncertain consequences for the food web of this highly productive eastern boundary current ecosystem.

  12. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-03-04

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data.

  13. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  14. Birth-death branching models. Application to African elephant populations.

    PubMed

    Corbacho, Casimiro; Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso

    2013-09-01

    Branching models have a long history of biological applications, particularly in population dynamics. In this work, our interest is the development of mathematical models to describe the demographic dynamics of socially structured animal populations, focusing our attention on lineages, usually matrilines, as the basic structure in the population. Significant efforts have been made to develop models based on the assumption that all individuals behave identically with respect to reproduction. However, the reproduction phase has a large random component that involves not only demographic but also environmental factors that change across range distribution of species. In the present work, we introduce new classes of birth-death branching models which take such factors into account. We assume that both, the offspring probability distribution and the death probabilities may be different in each generation, changing either predictably or unpredictably in relation to habitat features. We consider the genealogical tree generated by observation of the process until a pre-set generation. We determine the probability distributions of the random variables representing the number of dead or living individuals having at least one ancestor alive, living individuals whose ancestors are all dead, and dead individuals whose ancestors are all dead, explicitly obtaining their principal moments. Also, we derive the probability distributions corresponding to the partial and total numbers of such biological variables, obtaining in particular the distribution of the total number of matriarchs in the genealogical tree. We apply the proposed models to describe the demographic dynamics of African elephant populations living in different habitats. PMID:23648183

  15. Ciliate Epibionts Associated with Crustacean Zooplankton in German Lakes: Distribution, Motility, and Bacterivory

    PubMed Central

    Bickel, Samantha L.; Tang, Kam W.; Grossart, Hans-Peter

    2012-01-01

    Ciliate epibionts associated with crustacean zooplankton are widespread in aquatic systems, but their ecological roles are little known. We studied the occurrence of ciliate epibionts on crustacean zooplankton in nine German lakes with different limnological features during the summer of 2011. We also measured the detachment and re-attachment rates of the ciliates, changes in their motility, and the feeding rates of attached vs. detached ciliate epibionts. Epibionts were found in all lakes sampled except an acidic lake with large humic inputs. Epibiont prevalence was as high as 80.96% on the cladoceran Daphnia cucullata, 67.17% on the cladoceran Diaphanosoma brachyurum, and 46.67% on the calanoid copepod Eudiaptomus gracilis. Both cladoceran groups typically had less than 10 epibionts per individual, while the epibiont load on E. gracilis ranged from 1 to >30 epibionts per individual. After the death of the zooplankton host, the peritrich ciliate epibiont Epistylis sp. detached in an exponential fashion with a half-life of 5 min, and 98% detached within 30 min, leaving behind the stalks used for attachment. Immediately after detachment, the ciliates were immotile, but 62% became motile within 60 min. When a new host was present, only 27% reattached after 120 min. The average measured ingestion rate and clearance rate of Epistylis were 11,745 bacteria ciliate−1 h−1 and 24.33 μl ciliate−1 h−1, respectively. Despite their high feeding rates, relatively low epibiont abundances were observed in the field, which suggests either diversion of energy to stalk formation, high metabolic loss by the epibionts, or high mortality among the epibiont populations. PMID:22783247

  16. Tidally oriented vertical migration and position maintenance of zooplankton in a temperate estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kimmerer, W.J.; Burau, J.R.; Bennett, W.A.

    1998-01-01

    In many estuaries, maxima in turbidity and abundance of several common species of zooplankton occur in the low salinity zone (LSZ) in the range of 0.5-6 practical salinity units (psu). Analysis of zooplankton abundance from monitoring in 1972-1987 revealed that historical maxima in abundance of the copepod Eurytemora affinis and the mysid Neomysis mercedis, and in turbidity as determined from Secchi disk data, were close to the estimated position of 2 psu bottom salinity. The copepod Sinocalanus doerrii had a maximum slightly landward of that of E. affinis. After 1987 these maxima decreased and shifted to a lower salinity, presumably because of the effects of grazing by the introduced clam Potamocorbula amurensis. At the same time, the copepod Pseudodiaptomus forbesi, the mysid Acanthomysis sp., and amphipods became abundant with peaks at salinity around 0.2-0.5 psu. Plausible mechanisms for maintenance of these persistent abundance peaks include interactions between variation in flow and abundance, either in the vertical or horizontal plane, or higher net population growth rate in the peaks than seaward of the peaks. In spring of 1994, a dry year, we sampled in and near the LSZ using a Lagrangian sampling scheme to follow selected isohalines while sampling over several complete tidal cycles. Acoustic Doppler current profilers were used to provide detailed velocity distributions to enable us to estimate longitudinal fluxes of organisms. Stratification was weak and gravitational circulation nearly absent in the LSZ. All of the common species of zooplankton migrated vertically in response to the tides, with abundance higher in the water column on the flood than on the ebb. Migration of mysids and amphipods was sufficient to override net seaward flow to produce a net landward flux of organisms. Migration of copepods, however, was insufficient to reverse or even greatly diminish the net seaward flux of organisms, implying alternative mechanisms of position maintenance.

  17. Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) Model. I. Spectroscopic Evolution of Simple Stellar Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Lee, Young-Wook

    2013-01-01

    We present a series of papers on the 2012 version of the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) model, which was constructed based on over 20 years of research. This first paper delineates the spectroscopic aspect of integrated light from stellar populations older than 1 Gyr. The standard YEPS is based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provides absorption line indices of the Lick/IDS system and high-order Balmer lines for simple stellar populations as functions of stellar parameters, such as metallicity, age, and α-element mixture. Special care has been taken to incorporate a systematic contribution from horizontal-branch (HB) stars, which alters the temperature-sensitive Balmer lines significantly, resulting in up to a 5 Gyr difference in the age estimation of old, metal-poor stellar populations. We also find that HBs exert an appreciable effect not only on the Balmer lines but also on the metallicity-sensitive lines, including the magnesium index. This is critical in explaining the intriguing bimodality found in index distributions of globular clusters in massive galaxies and to accurately derive spectroscopic metallicities from various indices. A full set of the spectroscopic and photometric YEPS model data of the entire parameter space is currently downloadable at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.

  18. YONSEI EVOLUTIONARY POPULATION SYNTHESIS (YEPS) MODEL. I. SPECTROSCOPIC EVOLUTION OF SIMPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Lee, Young-Wook

    2013-01-15

    We present a series of papers on the 2012 version of the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) model, which was constructed based on over 20 years of research. This first paper delineates the spectroscopic aspect of integrated light from stellar populations older than 1 Gyr. The standard YEPS is based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provides absorption line indices of the Lick/IDS system and high-order Balmer lines for simple stellar populations as functions of stellar parameters, such as metallicity, age, and {alpha}-element mixture. Special care has been taken to incorporate a systematic contribution from horizontal-branch (HB) stars, which alters the temperature-sensitive Balmer lines significantly, resulting in up to a 5 Gyr difference in the age estimation of old, metal-poor stellar populations. We also find that HBs exert an appreciable effect not only on the Balmer lines but also on the metallicity-sensitive lines, including the magnesium index. This is critical in explaining the intriguing bimodality found in index distributions of globular clusters in massive galaxies and to accurately derive spectroscopic metallicities from various indices. A full set of the spectroscopic and photometric YEPS model data of the entire parameter space is currently downloadable at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.

  19. A model study with light-dependent mortality rates of copepod stages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, Thomas; Kremp, Christine

    2005-06-01

    This paper is based on an advanced ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea (ERGOM [ J. Mar. Sys. 25 (3-4) (2005) 405]), but with an increased resolution of the zooplankton stage variable [ J. Plankton Res. 23 (2001) 1217; ICES Marine Science 219 (2003) 208]. The model copepods are represented by five stages: eggs, an aggregated variable of nauplii, two aggregated groups of copepodites and adults. The transfer among the stages, i.e., hatching, molting and reproduction, is controlled by food availability and temperature. As usual, the model food web is truncated at the level of zooplankton. The study explores the effects of different parametrization of zooplankton mortality and looks in particular on light-dependent rates. The light climate may serve a proxy for the effects of visual feeding of fish larvae and fish. Different choices of the mortality parameters can result in remarkable differences in abundances and biomass of the model zooplankton and in the timing of its development. It is found that the different choices of mortality affect the development of populations in several ways: Relative small initial differences of abundances at the beginning of the spring bloom are important for the development of the model populations. Higher mortality rates are less important at food rich conditions than at scarce resources. At low phytoplankton levels, the individual development of the copepods through the stages can be faster for elevated mortality rates because then less animals have to share the available food.

  20. Pharmacogenomic implications of population admixture: Brazil as a model case.

    PubMed

    Suarez-Kurtz, Guilherme; Paula, Daniela Polessa; Struchiner, Claudio J

    2014-02-01

    The heterogeneous Brazilian population, with European, African and Amerindian ancestral roots is a model case for exploring the impact of population admixture on the frequency distribution of polymorphisms in pharmacogenes, and the design and interpretation of pharmacogenomics trials. Examples drawn from studies carried out by researchers of the Brazilian pharmacogenomics network, support the following conclusions: the distribution of polymorphisms varies across geographical regions and self-reported 'race/color' categories, and is best modeled as continuous functions of individual proportions of European and African ancestry; the differential frequency of polymorphisms impacts the calculations of sample sizes required for adequate statistical power in clinical trials performed in different segments of the Brazilian population; and extrapolation of pharmacogenomics data from well-defined ethnic groups to Brazilians is plagued with uncertainty. Data for warfarin and tacrolimus are reviewed to highlight the advantages and challenges of performing pharmacogenomic trials in Brazilians. PMID:24444410

  1. Modeling Population Exposures to Silver Nanoparticles Present in Consumer Products

    PubMed Central

    Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-01-01

    Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (Geographic Information System) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human Life Stage Analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employs screening Microenvironmental Modeling and Intake Fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically-relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters. PMID:25745354

  2. Zooplankton species composition, abundance and biomass on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: The potential role of water-column stability and nutrients in structuring the zooplankton community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coyle, Kenneth O.; Pinchuk, Alexei I.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Napp, Jeffrey M.

    2008-08-01

    The southeastern Bering Sea sustains one of the largest fisheries in the United States, as well as wildlife resources that support valuable tourist and subsistence economies. The fish and wildlife populations in turn are sustained by a food web linking primary producers to apex predators through the zooplankton community. Recent shifts in climate toward warmer conditions may threaten these resources by altering productivity and trophic relationships in the ecosystem on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf. We examined the zooplankton community near the Pribilof Islands and on the middle shelf of the southeastern Bering Sea in summer of 1999 and 2004 to document differences and similarities in species composition, abundance and biomass by region and year. Between August 1999 and August 2004, the summer zooplankton community of the middle shelf shifted from large to small species. Significant declines were observed in the biomass of large scyphozoans ( Chrysaora melanaster), large copepods ( Calanus marshallae), arrow worms ( Sagitta elegans) and euphausiids ( Thysanoessa raschii, T. inermis) between 1999 and 2004. In contrast, significantly higher densities of the small copepods ( Pseudocalanus spp., Oithona similis) and small hydromedusae ( Euphysa flammea) were observed in 2004 relative to 1999. Stomach analyses of young-of-the-year (age 0) pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma) from the middle shelf indicated a dietary shift from large to small copepods in 2004 relative to 1999. The shift in the zooplankton community was accompanied by a 3-fold increase in water-column stability in 2004 relative to 1999, primarily due to warmer water above the thermocline, with a mean temperature of 7.3 °C in 1999 and 12.6 °C in 2004. The elevated water-column stability and warmer conditions may have influenced the zooplankton composition by lowering summer primary production and selecting for species more tolerant of a warm, oligotrophic environment. A time series of temperature from

  3. Thermal habitat constraints on zooplankton species associated with Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) on the US Northeast Continental Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Kane, Joe; Hare, Jonathan A.; Lough, R. Gregory; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Fogarty, Michael J.; Nye, Janet A.

    2013-09-01

    The US Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing a period of increasing temperature levels and range, which impacts the quantity of thermal habitats within the ecosystem. With increasing temperatures, the amount of warmer, surface water thermal habitats (16-27 °C) has increased while there has been a reciprocal decline in cooler water habitats (5-15 °C). These cooler water habitats are the most abundant and comprise the core habitats of the ecosystem. The coldest thermal habitats (1-4 °C), however, have increased slightly in amount or have remained constant, reflecting a discontinuity in the progression of warming along a latitudinal gradient. This discontinuity may be the result of recent changes in the circulation of water masses in the northern Gulf of Maine, potentially associated with the Labrador Current. The contraction of core thermal habitats appears to have had biological consequences on multiple trophic levels. In particular, two zooplankton species associated with the larval feeding of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, have declined in abundance in the same areas where cod populations have exhibited continually poor recruitment. The zooplankton species group Pseudocalanus spp., which is associated with winter-spawning cod, has declined on Georges Bank and in the Eastern Gulf of Maine. The zooplankton Centropages typicus has declined in the Gulf of Maine during late summer into fall, potentially affecting spring-spawning cod in that area. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that portions of the population complex of cod have lower reproductive output due to changes in zooplankton abundance, which we associate with the distribution of temperatures within the ecosystem.

  4. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new mod...

  5. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-Ålesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are

  6. Acoustic backscatter measurements with a 153 kHz ADCP in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico: determination of dominant zooplankton and micronekton scatterers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ressler, Patrick H.

    2002-11-01

    A 153 kHz narrowband acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) was used to measure volume backscattering strength ( Sv) during a deepwater oceanographic survey of cetacean and seabird habitat in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Sv was positively related to zooplankton and micronekton biomass (wet displacement volume) in 'sea-truth' net hauls made with a 1 m 2 Multiple Opening-Closing Net Environmental Sensing System (MOCNESS). A subset of these MOCNESS tows was used to explore the relationship between the numerical densities of various taxonomic categories of zooplankton and the ADCP backscatter signal. Crustaceans, small fish, and fragments of non-gas-bearing siphonophores in the net samples all showed significant, positive correlations with the acoustic signal, while other types of gelatinous zooplankton, pteropod and atlantid molluscs, and gas-filled siphonophore floats showed no significant correlation with Sv. Previously published acoustic scattering models for zooplankton were used to calculate expected scattering for several general zooplankton types and sizes for comparison with the field data. Even though gelatinous material often made up a large fraction of the total biomass, crustaceans, small fish, and pteropods were most likely the important scatterers. Since only crustacean and small fish densities were significantly correlated with Sv, it is suggested that Sv at 153 kHz can be used as a relative proxy for the abundance of these organisms in the Gulf of Mexico.

  7. A model agreement for genetic research in socially identifiable populations.

    PubMed

    Foster, M W; Bernsten, D; Carter, T H

    1998-09-01

    Genetic research increasingly focuses on population-specific human genetic diversity. However, the naming of a human population in public databases and scientific publications entails collective risks for its members. Those collective risks can be evaluated and protections can be put in place by the establishment of a dialogue with the subject population, before a research study is initiated. Here we describe an agreement to undertake genetic research with a Native American tribe. We identified the culturally appropriate public and private social units within which community members are accustomed to make decisions about health. We then engaged those units in a process of communal discourse. In their discourses about our proposed study, community members expressed most concern about culturally specific implications. We also found that, in this population, private social units were more influential in communal decision making than were public authorities. An agreement was reached that defined the scope of research, provided options for naming the population in publications (including anonymity), and addressed the distribution of royalties from intellectual property, the future use of archival samples, and specific cultural concerns. We found that informed consent by individuals could not fully address these collective issues. This approach may serve as a general model for the undertaking of population-specific genetic studies. PMID:9718343

  8. Spatial-temporal scales of synchrony in marine zooplankton biomass and abundance patterns: A world-wide comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batchelder, Harold P.; Mackas, David L.; O'Brien, Todd D.

    2012-05-01

    Large scale synchrony in the fluctuations of abundance or biomass of marine fish populations in regions on opposite sides of an ocean basin or in different oceans have been viewed as externally forced by correlated environmental stochasticity (e.g., common external forcing), most often as atmospheric teleconnections of basin-to-global scale atmospheric forcing, such as the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Specific causal mechanisms have been difficult to unequivocally discover, but possible mechanisms include influences on habitat temperatures, productivity operating through bottom-up (trophodynamic) mechanisms or direct climate influence on the fish populations (top-down mechanisms). For small pelagic fishes (sardines and anchovies) in widely separated large marine ecosystems that lack obvious ocean interconnectivity, it has been argued that the teleconnections may be atmospheric, acting on the fishes directly and propagating to the ecosystem from the middle out (wasp-waist species). Zooplankton biomass or abundance time series data from >100 sites world-wide are used to examine the spatial scales of coherent temporal synchrony. If spatially correlated environmental factors (like climate) are important for creating synchrony in fish populations via bottom-up effects (trophic interactions involving fish prey, e.g., zooplankton), then we would expect to observe synchrony in fluctuations of zooplankton biomass/numbers at spatial scales similar to those found for fish species. Zooplankton biomass/abundance have 50% spatial decorrelation scales of ca. 700-1400 km and scales of significant coherence that extend to separation distances of ca. 3000 km. These are also the spatial scales of environmental (sea surface temperature) synchrony from our global analysis. These scales are slightly greater than the 50% decorrelation scales of ca. 150-700 km for recruitment synchrony in Atlantic marine fish and survival and

  9. Can modeling improve estimation of desert tortoise population densities?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nussear, K.E.; Tracy, C.R.

    2007-01-01

    The federally listed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is currently monitored using distance sampling to estimate population densities. Distance sampling, as with many other techniques for estimating population density, assumes that it is possible to quantify the proportion of animals available to be counted in any census. Because desert tortoises spend much of their life in burrows, and the proportion of tortoises in burrows at any time can be extremely variable, this assumption is difficult to meet. This proportion of animals available to be counted is used as a correction factor (g0) in distance sampling and has been estimated from daily censuses of small populations of tortoises (6-12 individuals). These censuses are costly and produce imprecise estimates of g0 due to small sample sizes. We used data on tortoise activity from a large (N = 150) experimental population to model activity as a function of the biophysical attributes of the environment, but these models did not improve the precision of estimates from the focal populations. Thus, to evaluate how much of the variance in tortoise activity is apparently not predictable, we assessed whether activity on any particular day can predict activity on subsequent days with essentially identical environmental conditions. Tortoise activity was only weakly correlated on consecutive days, indicating that behavior was not repeatable or consistent among days with similar physical environments. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Modelling Spread of Oncolytic Viruses in Heterogeneous Cell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, Michael; Dobrovolny, Hana

    2014-03-01

    One of the most promising areas in current cancer research and treatment is the use of viruses to attack cancer cells. A number of oncolytic viruses have been identified to date that possess the ability to destroy or neutralize cancer cells while inflicting minimal damage upon healthy cells. Formulation of predictive models that correctly describe the evolution of infected tumor systems is critical to the successful application of oncolytic virus therapy. A number of different models have been proposed for analysis of the oncolytic virus-infected tumor system, with approaches ranging from traditional coupled differential equations such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models, to contemporary modeling frameworks based on neural networks and cellular automata. Existing models are focused on tumor cells and the effects of virus infection, and offer the potential for improvement by including effects upon normal cells. We have recently extended the traditional framework to a 2-cell model addressing the full cellular system including tumor cells, normal cells, and the impacts of viral infection upon both populations. Analysis of the new framework reveals complex interaction between the populations and potential inability to simultaneously eliminate the virus and tumor populations.

  11. Resource requirements of the Pacific leatherback turtle population.

    PubMed

    Jones, T Todd; Bostrom, Brian L; Hastings, Mervin D; Van Houtan, Kyle S; Pauly, Daniel; Jones, David R

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific population of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) has drastically declined in the last 25 years. This decline has been linked to incidental capture by fisheries, egg and meat harvesting, and recently, to climate variability and resource limitation. Here we couple growth rates with feeding experiments and food intake functions to estimate daily energy requirements of leatherbacks throughout their development. We then estimate mortality rates from available data, enabling us to raise food intake (energy requirements) of the individual to the population level. We place energy requirements in context of available resources (i.e., gelatinous zooplankton abundance). Estimated consumption rates suggest that a single leatherback will eat upward of 1000 metric tonnes (t) of jellyfish in its lifetime (range 924-1112) with the Pacific population consuming 2.1×10(6) t of jellyfish annually (range 1.0-3.7×10(6)) equivalent to 4.2×10(8) megajoules (MJ) (range 2.0-7.4×10(8)). Model estimates suggest 2-7 yr-old juveniles comprise the majority of the Pacific leatherback population biomass and account for most of the jellyfish consumption (1.1×10(6) t of jellyfish or 2.2×10(8) MJ per year). Leatherbacks are large gelatinous zooplanktivores with consumption to biomass ratios of 96 (up to 192 if feeding strictly on low energy density Cnidarians); they, therefore, have a large capacity to impact gelatinous zooplankton landscapes. Understanding the leatherback's needs for gelatinous zooplankton, versus the availability of these resources, can help us better assess population trends and the influence of climate induced resource limitations to reproductive output. PMID:23071518

  12. Resource Requirements of the Pacific Leatherback Turtle Population

    PubMed Central

    Jones, T. Todd; Bostrom, Brian L.; Hastings, Mervin D.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Pauly, Daniel; Jones, David R.

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific population of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) has drastically declined in the last 25 years. This decline has been linked to incidental capture by fisheries, egg and meat harvesting, and recently, to climate variability and resource limitation. Here we couple growth rates with feeding experiments and food intake functions to estimate daily energy requirements of leatherbacks throughout their development. We then estimate mortality rates from available data, enabling us to raise food intake (energy requirements) of the individual to the population level. We place energy requirements in context of available resources (i.e., gelatinous zooplankton abundance). Estimated consumption rates suggest that a single leatherback will eat upward of 1000 metric tonnes (t) of jellyfish in its lifetime (range 924–1112) with the Pacific population consuming 2.1×106 t of jellyfish annually (range 1.0–3.7×106) equivalent to 4.2×108 megajoules (MJ) (range 2.0–7.4×108). Model estimates suggest 2–7 yr-old juveniles comprise the majority of the Pacific leatherback population biomass and account for most of the jellyfish consumption (1.1×106 t of jellyfish or 2.2×108 MJ per year). Leatherbacks are large gelatinous zooplanktivores with consumption to biomass ratios of 96 (up to 192 if feeding strictly on low energy density Cnidarians); they, therefore, have a large capacity to impact gelatinous zooplankton landscapes. Understanding the leatherback's needs for gelatinous zooplankton, versus the availability of these resources, can help us better assess population trends and the influence of climate induced resource limitations to reproductive output. PMID:23071518

  13. Late-summer zooplankton community structure, abundance, and distribution in the Hudson Bay system (Canada) and their relationships with environmental conditions, 2003-2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Rafael; Harvey, Michel; Gosselin, Michel; Starr, Michel; Galbraith, Peter S.; Straneo, Fiammetta

    2012-08-01

    weakly stratified Arctic-North Atlantic waters coming from southwestern Davis Strait (inflow). In general, the RDA models tested among the HBS regions were very consistent with its general surface circulation pattern for summer conditions in terms of environmental variables and distinct zooplankton assemblages. Overall, zooplankton biomass and diversity indices (H‧, J‧, and S) were lower in the most stratified environment (i.e., HB) than in the deeper (FB) and more dynamic (HS) regions. The results of this work clearly show that the spatial differentiation and structure of the zooplankton communities are strongly influenced by the hydrodynamic conditions in the HBS that, trough their actions on temperature, salinity, stratification, mixing conditions and depth strata, lead to the spatial differentiation of these communities.

  14. A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Intraspecific Autochthonous and Allochthonous Resource Use by Zooplankton in a Humic Lake during the Transitions between Winter, Summer and Fall

    PubMed Central

    Berggren, Martin; Bergström, Ann-Kristin; Karlsson, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal patterns in assimilation of externally produced, allochthonous, organic matter into aquatic food webs are poorly understood, especially in brown-water lakes. We studied the allochthony (share biomass of terrestrial origin) in cladoceran, calanoid and cyclopoid micro-crustacean zooplankton from late winter to fall during two years in a small humic lake (Sweden). The use of allochthonous resources was important for sustaining a small population of calanoids in the water column during late winter. However, in summer the calanoids shifted to 100% herbivory, increasing their biomass several-fold by making efficient use of the pelagic primary production. In contrast, the cyclopoids and cladocerans remained at high levels of allochthony throughout the seasons, both groups showing the mean allochthony of 0.56 (range in mean 0.17-0.79 and 0.34-0.75, for the respective group, depending on model parameters). Our study shows that terrestrial organic matter can be an important resource for cyclopoids and cladocerans on an annual basis, forming a significant link between terrestrial organic matter and the higher trophic levels of the food web, but it can also be important for sustaining otherwise herbivorous calanoids during periods of low primary production in late winter. PMID:25764501

  16. Intraspecific Autochthonous and Allochthonous Resource Use by Zooplankton in a Humic Lake during the Transitions between Winter, Summer and Fall.

    PubMed

    Berggren, Martin; Bergström, Ann-Kristin; Karlsson, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal patterns in assimilation of externally produced, allochthonous, organic matter into aquatic food webs are poorly understood, especially in brown-water lakes. We studied the allochthony (share biomass of terrestrial origin) in cladoceran, calanoid and cyclopoid micro-crustacean zooplankton from late winter to fall during two years in a small humic lake (Sweden). The use of allochthonous resources was important for sustaining a small population of calanoids in the water column during late winter. However, in summer the calanoids shifted to 100% herbivory, increasing their biomass several-fold by making efficient use of the pelagic primary production. In contrast, the cyclopoids and cladocerans remained at high levels of allochthony throughout the seasons, both groups showing the mean allochthony of 0.56 (range in mean 0.17-0.79 and 0.34-0.75, for the respective group, depending on model parameters). Our study shows that terrestrial organic matter can be an important resource for cyclopoids and cladocerans on an annual basis, forming a significant link between terrestrial organic matter and the higher trophic levels of the food web, but it can also be important for sustaining otherwise herbivorous calanoids during periods of low primary production in late winter. PMID:25764501

  17. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Pat; Landahl, John

    This pamphlet has been prepared in response to a new problem, a rapidly increasing population, and a new need, population education. It is designed to help teachers provide their students with some basic population concepts with stress placed on the elements of decision making. In the first section of the pamphlet, some of the basic concepts of…

  18. Does salinity change determine zooplankton variability in the saline Qarun Lake (Egypt)?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Shabrawy, Gamal M.; Anufriieva, Elena V.; Germoush, Mousa O.; Goher, Mohamed E.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

    2015-11-01

    Zooplankton and 14 abiotic variables were studied during August 2011 at 10 stations in Lake Qarun, Egypt. Stations with the lowest salinity and highest nutrient concentrations and turbidity were close to the discharge of waters from the El-Bats and El-Wadi drainage systems. A total of 15 holozooplankton species were identified. The salinity in Lake Qarun increased and fluctuated since 1901: 12 g/L in 1901; 8.5 g/L in 1905; 12.0 g/L in 1922; 30.0 g/L in 1985; 38.7 g/L in 1994; 35.3 g/L in 2006, and 33.4 g/L in 2011. The mean concentration of nutrients (nitrate, nitrite and orthophosphate) gradually increased from 35, 0.16 and 0.38 µg/L, respectively, in 1953-1955 to 113, 16.4, and 30.26 µg/L in 2011. From 1999-2003 some decrease of species diversity occurred. Average total zooplankton density was 30 000 ind./m3 in 1974-1977; 356 125 ind./m3 in 1989; 534 000 ind./m3 in 1994-1995; from 965 000 to 1 452 000 ind./m3 in 2006, and 595 000 ind./m3 in 2011. A range of long-term summer salinity variability during the last decades was very similar to a range of salinity spatial variability in summer 2011. There is no significant correlation between zooplankton abundance and salinity in spatial and long-term changes. We conclude that salinity fluctuations since at least 1955 did not directly drive the changes of composition and abundance of zooplankton in the lake. A marine community had formed in the lake, and it continues to change. One of the main drivers of this change is a regular introduction and a pressure of alien species on the existent community. Eutrophication also plays an important role. The introduction of Mnemiopsis leidyi, first reported in 2014, may lead to a start of a new stage of the biotic changes in Lake Qarun, when eutrophication and the population dynamics of this ctenophore will be main drivers of the ecosystem change.

  19. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  20. A mathematical model of syphilis transmission in an MSM population.

    PubMed

    Saad-Roy, C M; Shuai, Zhisheng; van den Driessche, P

    2016-07-01

    Syphilis is caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum, and is a sexually transmitted disease with multiple stages. A model of transmission of syphilis in an MSM population (there has recently been a resurgence of syphilis in such populations) that includes infection stages and treatment is formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations. The control reproduction number is calculated, and it is proved that if this threshold parameter is below one, syphilis dies out; otherwise, if it is greater than one, it is shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and that for certain special cases, this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Using data from the literature on MSM populations, numerical methods are used to determine the variation and robustness of the control reproduction number with respect to the model parameters, and to determine adequate treatment rates for syphilis eradication. By assuming a closed population and no return to susceptibility, an epidemic model is obtained. Final outbreak sizes are numerically determined for various parameter values, and its variation and robustness to parameter value changes is also investigated. Results quantify the importance of early treatment for syphilis control. PMID:27071977

  1. Two-population dynamics in a growing network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanova, Kristinka; Iordanov, Ivan

    2012-02-01

    We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.

  2. A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koford, Rolf R.; Sauer, J.R.; Johnson, D.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Samuel, M.D.

    1992-01-01

    We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.

  3. ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

    2010-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  4. Computational models of populations of bacteria and lytic phage.

    PubMed

    Krysiak-Baltyn, Konrad; Martin, Gregory J O; Stickland, Anthony D; Scales, Peter J; Gras, Sally L

    2016-11-01

    The use of phages to control and reduce numbers of unwanted bacteria can be traced back to the early 1900s, when phages were explored as a tool to treat infections before the wide scale use of antibiotics. Recently, phage therapy has received renewed interest as a method to treat multiresistant bacteria. Phages are also widely used in the food industry to prevent the growth of certain bacteria in foods, and are currently being explored as a tool for use in bioremediation and wastewater treatment. Despite the large body of biological research on phages, relatively little attention has been given to computational modeling of the population dynamics of phage and bacterial interactions. The earliest model was described by Campbell in the 1960s. Subsequent modifications to this model include partial or complete resistance, multiple phage binding sites, and spatial heterogeneity. This review provides a general introduction to modeling of the population dynamics of bacteria and phage. The review introduces the basic model and relevant concepts and evaluates more complex variations of the basic model published to date, including a model of disease epidemics caused by infectious bacteria. Finally, the shortcomings and potential ways to improve the models are discussed. PMID:26828960

  5. NUTRIENT REGENERATION BY ZOOPLANKTON IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rates of nutrient regeneration by zooplankton (micromolecule/mg dry wt/hr) in southern Lake Huron from April to August 1975 ranged from undetectable to 2.6 for total phosphorus (TP), undetected to 0.8 for total soluble phosphorus (TSP), undetectable to 0.12 for soluble reactive p...

  6. Correlates of Zooplankton Beta Diversity in Tropical Lake Systems

    PubMed Central

    Lopes, Paloma M.; Bini, Luis M.; Declerck, Steven A. J.; Farjalla, Vinicius F.; Vieira, Ludgero C. G.; Bonecker, Claudia C.; Lansac-Toha, Fabio A.; Esteves, Francisco A.; Bozelli, Reinaldo L.

    2014-01-01

    The changes in species composition between habitat patches (beta diversity) are likely related to a number of factors, including environmental heterogeneity, connectivity, disturbance and productivity. Here, we used data from aquatic environments in five Brazilian regions over two years and two seasons (rainy and dry seasons or high and low water level periods in floodplain lakes) in each year to test hypotheses underlying zooplankton beta diversity variation. The regions present different levels of hydrological connectivity, where three regions present lakes that are permanent and connected with the main river, while the water bodies of the other two regions consist of permanent lakes and temporary ponds, with no hydrological connections between them. We tested for relationships between zooplankton beta diversity and environmental heterogeneity, spatial extent, hydrological connectivity, seasonality, disturbance and productivity. Negative relationships were detected between zooplankton beta diversity and both hydrological connectivity and disturbance (periodic dry-outs). Hydrological connectivity is likely to affect beta diversity by facilitating dispersal between habitats. In addition, the harsh environmental filter imposed by disturbance selected for only a small portion of the species from the regional pool that were able to cope with periodic dry-outs (e.g., those with a high production of resting eggs). In summary, this study suggests that faunal exchange and disturbance play important roles in structuring local zooplankton communities. PMID:25330034

  7. FORAGE FISH AND ZOOPLANKTON COMMUNITY COMPOSITION IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    We assessed the abundance, size, and species composition of the fish and zooplankton communities of western Lake Superior during 1996 and 1997. Data were analyzed for 3 ecoregions (Duluth-Superior (1), Apostle Islands (2), Minnesota coast (3) differing in lake bathymetry, phsiodo...

  8. Zooplankton and Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lester, Kristen M.; Heil, Cynthia A.; Neely, Merry B.; Spence, Danylle N.; Murasko, Susan; Hopkins, Thomas L.; Sutton, Tracey T.; Burghart, Scott E.; Bohrer, Richard N.; Remsen, Andrew W.; Vargo, Gabriel A.; Walsh, John J.

    2008-01-01

    Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis are common in the Gulf of Mexico, yet no in situ studies of zooplankton and K. brevis have been conducted there. Zooplankton abundance and taxonomic composition at non-bloom and K. brevis bloom stations within the Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB) study area were compared. At non-bloom stations, the most abundant species of zooplankton were Parvocalanus crassirostris, Oithona colcarva, and Paracalanus quasimodo at the 5-m isobath and P. quasimodo, O. colcarva, and Oikopleura dioica at the 25-m isobath. There was considerable overlap in dominance of zooplankton species between the 5 and 25-m isobaths, with nine species contributing to 90% of abundance at both isobaths. At stations within K. brevis blooms however, Acartia tonsa, Centropages velificatus, Temora turbinata, Evadne tergestina, O. colcarva, O. dioica, and P. crassirostris were dominant. Variations in abundance between non-bloom and bloom assemblages were evident, including the reduction in abundance of three key species within K. brevis blooms.

  9. Evaluation of Zooplankton in Hatchery Diets for Channel Catfish Fry

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The efficacy of zooplankton as a supplemental hatchery diet for fry of channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus was evaluated. When a commercial diet is used as a reference, fry fed exclusively on zooplankton–either live or dried–performed poorly in their growth rate. However, when live or dried zooplan...

  10. Lake St. Clair zooplankton: Evidence for post-dreissena changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    David, K.A.; Davis, B.M.; Hunter, R.D.

    2009-01-01

    We surveyed the zooplankton of Lake St. Clair at 12 sites over ten dates from May to October 2000. Mean zooplankton density by site and date was 168.6 individuals/L, with Dreissena spp. veligers the most abundant taxon at 122.7 individuals/L. Rotifers, copepods, and cladocerans were far lower in mean abundance than in the early 1970s (rotifers, 20.9/L; copepods, 18.1/L; and cladocerans, 6.8/L). Species richness of zooplankton taxa in 2000 was 147, which was virtually unchanged from that of the first reported survey in 1894. Overall, the decline in abundance was greatest for rotifers (-90%) and about equal for cladocerans (-69%) and copepods (-66%). The decrease in abundance of Daphnia spp. was especially dramatic in Canadian waters. The decline in the southeastern region was significant for all three major groups of zooplankton, whereas in the northwestern region the decline was significant only for rotifers. From June to August 2000, Lake St. Clair open waters were numerically dominated by Dreissena spp. veligers, with a reduced abundance of rotifers and crustaceans compared to pre-Dreissena spp. surveys. Mean nutrient concentrations were not different from the 1970s, but Secchi depth (greater) and chlorophyll a concentration (lower) were. Disproportionate reduction in rotifer abundance is consistent with hypotheses implicating direct consumption by settled Dreissena spp. Reduction of crustaceans is likely due to more complex interactions including removal of nauplii as well as resource competition for phytoplankton.

  11. Delayed population models with Allee effects and exploitation.

    PubMed

    Liz, Eduardo; Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

    2015-02-01

    Allee effects make populations more vulnerable to extinction, especially under severe harvesting or predation. Using a delay-differential equation modeling the evolution of a single-species population subject to constant effort harvesting, we show that the interplay between harvest strength and Allee effects leads not only to collapses due to overexploitation; large delays can interact with Allee effects to produce extinction at population densities that would survive for smaller time delays. In case of bistability, our estimations on the basins of attraction of the two coexisting attractors improve some recent results in this direction. Moreover, we show that the persistent attractor can exhibit bubbling: a stable equilibrium loses its stability as harvesting effort increases, giving rise to sustained oscillations, but higher mortality rates stabilize the equilibrium again. PMID:25811339

  12. Encounters of spherical galaxies. I - Galaxy models with one stellar population. II - Galaxy models with two stellar populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biermann, P.; Silk, J.

    1976-01-01

    Close encounters between two spherical galaxies of equal size and consisting of only one stellar population are calculated using models of elliptical galaxies constructed according to King's (1966) method. The mass loss and the change in internal energy are computed under the assumption that the stars do not change their velocity or density distributions during the encounters. The results for a specific case are compared with the calculations of Gallagher and Ostriker (1972), who employed the observed brightness distribution and the derived density distribution of the E1 galaxy NGC 3379. For models with one stellar population, the results suggest that the radius of a galactic halo would have to be at least 200 kpc for appreciable mass loss to occur over the history of a galaxy in a rich cluster. The calculations are then extended to include a halo population characterized by a high central velocity dispersion. In this case, it is found that the halo population of sufficiently large galaxies can be dispersed without appreciably affecting the main population. It is suggested that the missing mass of many clusters of galaxies may be located in an intergalactic sea of faint stars making up an envelope for the centrally located gE galaxies.

  13. Development of zooplankton culture subsystem for a closed ecological recirculating aquaculture system (CERAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omori, Katsunori; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Takeuchi, Toshio

    2006-01-01

    Ten parthenogenetic females of Moina macrocopa were placed in small cells with different flow conditions. The cells were opened after three-days of cultivation, and the water fleas in each cell were counted. It appeared that M. macrocopa were cultured effectively in a relatively slow current, 10 cm/min., but the population growth was not significantly influenced by the difference in flow direction. Subsequent, filtration efficiencies of filters with various pore sizes were compared. Four available porous hollow-fiber membrane modules, ACP-1010, AHP-1010, PSP-103, and PMP-102 (Asahi-Kasei Corp.), were tested. The module with the larger pore size initially filtered a greater amount of water but clogged up sooner. ACP-1010, which has the smallest pores, was considered to be suitable to filter condensed algal water due to its durability and stable filtration. An improved zooplankton culture device (IZCD) was designed and constructed based on these examinations. IZCD is a 13.2L airtight device characterized by a short and thick rearing tank and alternate filtration with paired fine hollow-fiber membrane modules. It must be tested and revised to be used in research into the optimal conditions for a zooplankton culture in a closed environment.

  14. Internal models for interpreting neural population activity during sensorimotor control

    PubMed Central

    Golub, Matthew D; Yu, Byron M; Chase, Steven M

    2015-01-01

    To successfully guide limb movements, the brain takes in sensory information about the limb, internally tracks the state of the limb, and produces appropriate motor commands. It is widely believed that this process uses an internal model, which describes our prior beliefs about how the limb responds to motor commands. Here, we leveraged a brain-machine interface (BMI) paradigm in rhesus monkeys and novel statistical analyses of neural population activity to gain insight into moment-by-moment internal model computations. We discovered that a mismatch between subjects’ internal models and the actual BMI explains roughly 65% of movement errors, as well as long-standing deficiencies in BMI speed control. We then used the internal models to characterize how the neural population activity changes during BMI learning. More broadly, this work provides an approach for interpreting neural population activity in the context of how prior beliefs guide the transformation of sensory input to motor output. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.10015.001 PMID:26646183

  15. Moving across the border: modeling migratory bat populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; López-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure – these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

  16. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  17. Bayesian Modeling of Haplotype Effects in Multiparent Populations

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhaojun; Wang, Wei; Valdar, William

    2014-01-01

    A general Bayesian model, Diploffect, is described for estimating the effects of founder haplotypes at quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected in multiparental genetic populations; such populations include the Collaborative Cross (CC), Heterogeneous Socks (HS), and many others for which local genetic variation is well described by an underlying, usually probabilistically inferred, haplotype mosaic. Our aim is to provide a framework for coherent estimation of haplotype and diplotype (haplotype pair) effects that takes into account the following: uncertainty in haplotype composition for each individual; uncertainty arising from small sample sizes and infrequently observed haplotype combinations; possible effects of dominance (for noninbred subjects); genetic background; and that provides a means to incorporate data that may be incomplete or has a hierarchical structure. Using the results of a probabilistic haplotype reconstruction as prior information, we obtain posterior distributions at the QTL for both haplotype effects and haplotype composition. Two alternative computational approaches are supplied: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and a procedure based on importance sampling of integrated nested Laplace approximations. Using simulations of QTL in the incipient CC (pre-CC) and Northport HS populations, we compare the accuracy of Diploffect, approximations to it, and more commonly used approaches based on Haley–Knott regression, describing trade-offs between these methods. We also estimate effects for three QTL previously identified in those populations, obtaining posterior intervals that describe how the phenotype might be affected by diplotype substitutions at the modeled locus. PMID:25236455

  18. Betaproteobacteria Limnohabitans strains increase fecundity in the crustacean Daphnia magna: symbiotic relationship between major bacterioplankton and zooplankton in freshwater ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Peerakietkhajorn, Saranya; Kato, Yasuhiko; Kasalický, Vojtěch; Matsuura, Tomoaki; Watanabe, Hajime

    2016-09-01

    How symbioses between bacteria and aquatic animals influence food webs in freshwater ecosystems is a fundamental question in ecology. We investigated symbiosis between a crustacean zooplankton Daphnia magna and its dominant bacterial symbiont Limnohabitans, an abundant and globally distributed freshwater Betaproteobacteria. Aposymbiotic juvenile Daphnia were prepared and exposed to any of four Limnohabitans sp. - Limnohabitans strains DM1, 2KL-3, 2KL-7 and Limnohabitans planktonicus strain II-D5, all previously found in D. magna digestive tract or culture. Re-infected Daphnia were cultured until they produced the first clutch of juveniles. Limnohabitans strain DM1 and L. planktonicus strain II-D5 successfully re-infected Daphnia through single exposure at the first instar juvenile stage. In contrast to aposymbiotic Daphnia that produced non-viable juveniles, re-infected Daphnia produced viable juveniles and increased fecundity to levels of that of symbiotic Daphnia. Re-infected Daphnia did not increase their number of eggs nor growth rates. Limnohabitans strains 2KL-7 and 2KL-3 could not recover fecundity even in multiple exposures during culture. This study shows the functional evidence demonstrating that a single bacterium Limnohabitans regulates fecundity of the consumer Daphnia through symbiosis. Our results indicated that symbiotic relationship between major bacterioplankton and zooplankton is important for maintaining the population of zooplankton in freshwater ecosystems. PMID:26014379

  19. Efficient control of population structure in model organism association mapping.

    PubMed

    Kang, Hyun Min; Zaitlen, Noah A; Wade, Claire M; Kirby, Andrew; Heckerman, David; Daly, Mark J; Eskin, Eleazar

    2008-03-01

    Genomewide association mapping in model organisms such as inbred mouse strains is a promising approach for the identification of risk factors related to human diseases. However, genetic association studies in inbred model organisms are confronted by the problem of complex population structure among strains. This induces inflated false positive rates, which cannot be corrected using standard approaches applied in human association studies such as genomic control or structured association. Recent studies demonstrated that mixed models successfully correct for the genetic relatedness in association mapping in maize and Arabidopsis panel data sets. However, the currently available mixed-model methods suffer from computational inefficiency. In this article, we propose a new method, efficient mixed-model association (EMMA), which corrects for population structure and genetic relatedness in model organism association mapping. Our method takes advantage of the specific nature of the optimization problem in applying mixed models for association mapping, which allows us to substantially increase the computational speed and reliability of the results. We applied EMMA to in silico whole-genome association mapping of inbred mouse strains involving hundreds of thousands of SNPs, in addition to Arabidopsis and maize data sets. We also performed extensive simulation studies to estimate the statistical power of EMMA under various SNP effects, varying degrees of population structure, and differing numbers of multiple measurements per strain. Despite the limited power of inbred mouse association mapping due to the limited number of available inbred strains, we are able to identify significantly associated SNPs, which fall into known QTL or genes identified through previous studies while avoiding an inflation of false positives. An R package implementation and webserver of our EMMA method are publicly available. PMID:18385116

  20. Wave trains in a model of gypsy moth population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilder, J. W.; Vasquez, D. A.; Christie, I.; Colbert, J. J.

    1995-12-01

    A recent model of gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)] populations led to the observation of traveling waves in a one-dimensional spatial model. In this work, these waves are studied in more detail and their nature investigated. It was observed that when there are no spatial effects the model behaves chaotically under certain conditions. Under the same conditions, when diffusion is allowed, traveling waves develop. The biomass densities involved in the model, when examined at one point in the spatial domain, are found to correspond to a limit cycle lying on the surface of the chaotic attractor of the spatially homogeneous model. Also observed are wave trains that have modulating maxima, and which when examined at one point in the spatial domain show a quasiperiodic temporal behavior. This complex behavior is determined to be due to the interaction of the traveling wave and the chaotic background dynamics.

  1. Trophic accumulation of PSP toxins in zooplankton during Alexandrium fundyense blooms in Casco Bay, Gulf of Maine, April June 1998. I. Toxin levels in A. fundyense and zooplankton size fractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doucette, Gregory J.; Turner, Jefferson T.; Powell, Christine L.; Keafer, Bruce A.; Anderson, Donald M.

    2005-09-01

    concentrations in the 20-64 μm, A. fundyense-containing size fraction implied fluctuations in the algal toxin cell quota, which ranged from ca. 10 to 2000 fmol STX equiv. cell -1. Some of this variability may reflect the changing presence in this size fraction of grazers (e.g., tintinnids) capable of toxin accumulation, causing an upward bias in A. fundyense toxin cell quota estimates. Overall, the extent of PSP toxin transfer into zooplankton will be determined by a complex interaction among several factors, including A. fundyense and grazer abundance, algal toxin cell quota, and zooplankton community composition. An ability to predict zooplankton toxin accumulation will require further investigation of the relationships between these and other factors, aimed specifically at modeling the process of toxin trophic transfer to grazers and ultimately to their predators.

  2. Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.

    1995-01-01

    Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee

  3. Modeling Refuge Effect of Submerged Macrophytes in Lake System.

    PubMed

    Lv, Dongyu; Fan, Meng; Kang, Yun; Blanco, Krystal

    2016-04-01

    This paper considers a significant problem in biological control of algae issue in ecological environment. A four-dimensional dynamic model is carefully formulated to characterize the interactions among phytoplankton, submerged macrophyte, zooplankton, and general fish class in a lake ecosystem. The predation relationship is modeled by Beddington-DeAngelis functional responses derived from the classical Holling time budget arguments. Qualitative analyses of the global dynamics show that the system can generate very rich dynamics with potentially 10 different equilibria and several bistable scenarios. We perform analysis on the existence and local stability of equilibria and explore the refuge effect of macrophyte on the zooplankton with numerical simulations on aquatic ecosystems. We also discuss effective methods of biological control used to restrain the increase of phytoplankton. Our study shows the proposed model could have rich and complex dynamics including but not limited to bistable and chaotic phenomenon. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that both the refuge constant and the density of the macrophytes are two key factors where refuge effects take place. In addition, the intraspecific competition between the macrophyte and the phytoplankton can also affect the macrophyte's refuge effect. Our analytical and simulation results suggest that macrophytes provide structure and shelter against predation for zooplankton such that it could restore the zooplankton population, and that planting macrophyte properly might achieve the purpose of controlling algae growth. PMID:27055658

  4. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  5. Fossil zooplankton and the historical status of westslope cutthroat trout in a headwater lake of Glacier National Park, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verschuren, D.; Marnell, L.F.

    1997-01-01

    Surviving pure-strain populations of westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi in headwater lakes of Glacier National Park could play an important role in the managed recovery of regional cutthroat trout fisheries. However, uncertainty exists about whether native trout could have naturally invaded several park lakes where they now occur. This study used paleolimnological techniques to address the question of whether the population of native trout in Avalanche Lake is indigenous or became established through an undocumented introduction. The validity of using fossil diapause eggs (ephippia) of the fish-sensitive cladocerans Daphnia spp. as indicators for the historical presence of zooplanktivorous fish was tested with a survey of live zooplankton and corresponding surface-sediment fossil assemblages in eight Glacier Park lakes with or without trout. Analysis of a sediment core from Avalanche Lake dated by lead radioisotopes, historical wildfires, and a flood allowed reconstruction of zooplankton dynamics from about 1700 A.D. to the present. Fossil Daphnia ephippia were rare or absent in Avalanche Lake sediments deposited before 1910, suggesting intense zooplanktivory due to sustained presence of an indigenous population of native cutthroat trout. Fossil evidence for larger Daphnia populations in the 1930s and early 1940s revealed a temporary disturbance of the lake's normal food web interactions during which zooplanktivory was significantly reduced. This disturbance may have resulted from a collapse of the native trout population caused indirectly by failed attempts between 1915 and 1943 to stock Avalanche Lake with Yellowstone cutthroat trout O. clarki bouvieri.

  6. A paradox in individual-based models of populations

    PubMed Central

    van der Meer, Jaap

    2016-01-01

    The standard dynamic energy budget model is widely used to describe the physiology of individual animals. It assumes that assimilation rate scales with body surface area, whereas maintenance rate scales with body volume. When the model is used as the building block of a population model, only limited dynamical behaviour, the so-called juvenile-driven cycles, emerges. The reason is that in the model juveniles are competitively superior over adults, because juveniles have a higher surface area-to-volume ratio. Maintenance requirements for adults are therefore relatively large, and a reduced assimilation rate as a result of lowered food levels will easily become insufficient. Here, an alternative dynamic energy budget model is introduced that gives rise to adult-driven cycles, which may be closer to what is often observed in reality. However, this comes at the price of a rather odd description of the individual, in that maintenance scales with body area and assimilation rate with body volume, resulting in unbounded exponential body growth. I make a plea to solve the paradox and come up with reliable descriptions at both the individual and the population level. PMID:27413533

  7. A paradox in individual-based models of populations.

    PubMed

    van der Meer, Jaap

    2016-01-01

    The standard dynamic energy budget model is widely used to describe the physiology of individual animals. It assumes that assimilation rate scales with body surface area, whereas maintenance rate scales with body volume. When the model is used as the building block of a population model, only limited dynamical behaviour, the so-called juvenile-driven cycles, emerges. The reason is that in the model juveniles are competitively superior over adults, because juveniles have a higher surface area-to-volume ratio. Maintenance requirements for adults are therefore relatively large, and a reduced assimilation rate as a result of lowered food levels will easily become insufficient. Here, an alternative dynamic energy budget model is introduced that gives rise to adult-driven cycles, which may be closer to what is often observed in reality. However, this comes at the price of a rather odd description of the individual, in that maintenance scales with body area and assimilation rate with body volume, resulting in unbounded exponential body growth. I make a plea to solve the paradox and come up with reliable descriptions at both the individual and the population level. PMID:27413533

  8. CALIBRATING STELLAR POPULATION MODELS WITH MAGELLANIC CLOUD STAR CLUSTERS

    SciTech Connect

    Noeel, N. E. D.; Carollo, C. M.; Greggio, L.; Renzini, A.; Maraston, C.

    2013-07-20

    Stellar population models are commonly calculated using star clusters as calibrators for those evolutionary stages that depend on free parameters. However, discrepancies exist among different models, even if similar sets of calibration clusters are used. With the aim of understanding these discrepancies, and of improving the calibration procedure, we consider a set of 43 Magellanic Cloud (MC) clusters, taking age and photometric information from the literature. We carefully assign ages to each cluster based on up-to-date determinations, ensuring that these are as homogeneous as possible. To cope with statistical fluctuations, we stack the clusters in five age bins, deriving for each of them integrated luminosities and colors. We find that clusters become abruptly red in optical and optical-infrared colors as they age from {approx}0.6 to {approx}1 Gyr, which we interpret as due to the development of a well-populated thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB). We argue that other studies missed this detection because of coarser age binnings. Maraston and Girardi et al. models predict the presence of a populated TP-AGB at {approx}0.6 Gyr, with a correspondingly very red integrated color, at variance with the data; Bruzual and Charlot and Conroy models run within the error bars at all ages. The discrepancy between the synthetic colors of Maraston models and the average colors of MC clusters results from the now obsolete age scale adopted. Finally, our finding that the TP-AGB phase appears to develop between {approx}0.6 and 1 Gyr is dependent on the adopted age scale for the clusters and may have important implications for stellar evolution.

  9. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-07-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.

  10. Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.

    PubMed

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  11. Genetic drift in an infinite population. The pseudohitchhiking model.

    PubMed Central

    Gillespie, J H

    2000-01-01

    Selected substitutions at one locus can induce stochastic dynamics that resemble genetic drift at a closely linked neutral locus. The pseudohitchhiking model is a one-locus model that approximates these effects and can be used to describe the major consequences of linked selection. As the changes in neutral allele frequencies when hitchhiking are rapid, diffusion theory is not appropriate for studying neutral dynamics. A stationary distribution and some results on substitution processes are presented that use the theory of continuous-time Markov processes with discontinuous sample paths. The coalescent of the pseudohitchhiking model is shown to have a random number of branches at each node, which leads to a frequency spectrum that is different from that of the equilibrium neutral model. If genetic draft, the name given to these induced stochastic effects, is a more important stochastic force than genetic drift, then a number of paradoxes that have plagued population genetics disappear. PMID:10835409

  12. Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

    PubMed

    Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2014-12-01

    The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished. PMID:25112794

  13. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Solé, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to ‘steal’ lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  14. Information-theoretic model selection and model averaging for closed-population capture-recapture studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

    1998-01-01

    Specification of an appropriate model is critical to valid stalistical inference. Given the "true model" for the data is unknown, the goal of model selection is to select a plausible approximating model that balances model bias and sampling variance. Model selection based on information criteria such as AIC or its variant AICc, or criteria like CAIC, has proven useful in a variety of contexts including the analysis of open-population capture-recapture data. These criteria have not been intensively evaluated for closed-population capture-recapture models, which are integer parameter models used to estimate population size (N), and there is concern that they will not perform well. To address this concern, we evaluated AIC, AICc, and CAIC model selection for closed-population capture-recapture models by empirically assessing the quality of inference for the population size parameter N. We found that AIC-, AICc-, and CAIC-selected models had smaller relative mean squared errors than randomly selected models, but that confidence interval coverage on N was poor unless unconditional variance estimates (which incorporate model uncertainty) were used to compute confidence intervals. Overall, AIC and AICc outperformed CAIC, and are preferred to CAIC for selection among the closed-population capture-recapture models we investigated. A model averaging approach to estimation, using AIC. AICc, or CAIC to estimate weights, was also investigated and proved superior to estimation using AIC-, AICc-, or CAIC-selected models. Our results suggested that, for model averaging, AIC or AICc. should be favored over CAIC for estimating weights.

  15. MIUSCAT: extended MILES spectral coverage - I. Stellar population synthesis models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazdekis, A.; Ricciardelli, E.; Cenarro, A. J.; Rivero-González, J. G.; Díaz-García, L. A.; Falcón-Barroso, J.

    2012-07-01

    We extend the spectral range of our stellar population synthesis models based on the MILES and CaT empirical stellar spectral libraries. For this purpose, we combine these two libraries with the Indo-U.S. to construct composite stellar spectra to feed our models. The spectral energy distributions (SEDs) computed with these models and the originally published models are combined to construct composite SEDs for single-age, single-metallicity stellar populations (SSPs) covering the range λλ3465-9469 Å at moderately high and uniform resolution (full width at half-maximum = 2.51 Å). The colours derived from these SSP SEDs provide good fits to Galactic globular cluster data. We find that the colours involving redder filters are very sensitive to the initial mass function (IMF), as well as a number of features and molecular bands throughout the spectra. To illustrate the potential use of these models, we focus on the Na I doublet at 8200 Å and with the aid of the newly synthesized SSP model SEDs, we define a new IMF-sensitive index that is based on this feature, which overcomes various limitations from previous index definitions for low-velocity dispersion stellar systems. We propose an index-index diagram based on this feature and the neighbouring Ca II triplet at 8600 Å, to constrain the IMF if the age and [Na/Fe] abundance are known. Finally we also show a survey-oriented spectrophotometric application which evidences the accurate flux calibration of these models for carrying out reliable spectral fitting techniques. These models are available through our user-friendly website.

  16. Individual-based model of young-of-the-year striped bass population dynamics. II. Factors affecting recruitment in the Potomac River, Maryland

    SciTech Connect

    Cowan, J.H. ); Rose, K.A. ); Rutherford, E.S.; Houde, E.D. )

    1993-05-01

    An individual-based model of the population dynamics of young-of-the-year striped bass Morone saxatilis in the Potomac River, Maryland, was used to test the hypothesis that historically high recruitment variability can be explained by changes in environmental and biological factors that result in relatively small changes in growth and mortality rates of striped bass larvae. The four factors examined were (1) size distribution of female parents, (2) zooplankton prey density during the development of striped bass larvae, (3) density of completing larval white perch M. americana, and (4) temperature during larval development. Simulation results suggest that variations in female size and in prey for larvae alone could cause 10-fold variability in recruitment. But no single factor alone caused changes in vital rates of age-0 fish that could account for the 145-fold variability in the Potomac River index of juvenile recruitment. However, combined positive or negative effects of two or more factors resulted in more than a 150-fold simulated recruitment variability, suggesting that combinations of factors can account for the high observed annual variability in striped bass recruitment success. Higher cumulative mortality of feeding larvae and younger life stages than of juveniles was common to all simulations. supporting the contention that striped bass year-class strength is determined prior to metamorphosis. 76 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.

  17. Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia.

    PubMed

    Trevorrow, Mark V; Mackas, David L; Benfield, Mark C

    2005-06-01

    An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation. PMID:16018461

  18. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  19. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-04-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  20. Predicting neonatal pharmacokinetics from prior data using population pharmacokinetic modeling.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jian; Edginton, Andrea N; Avant, Debbie; Burckart, Gilbert J

    2015-10-01

    Selection of the first dose for neonates in clinical trials is very challenging. The objective of this analysis was to assess if a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model developed with data from infants to adults is predictive of neonatal clearance and to evaluate what age range of prior PK data is needed for informative modeling to predict neonate exposure. Two sources of pharmacokinetic data from 8 drugs were used to develop population models: (1) data from all patients > 2 years of age, and (2) data from all nonneonatal patients aged > 28 days. The prediction error based on the models using data from subjects > 2 years of age showed bias toward overprediction, with median average fold error (AFE) for CL predicted/CLobserved greater than 1.5. The bias for predicting neonatal PK was improved when using all prior PK data including infants as opposed to an assessment without infant PK data, with the median AFE 0.91. As an increased number of pediatric trials are conducted in neonates under the Food and Drug Administration Safety and Innovation Act, dose selection should be based on the best estimates of neonatal pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics prior to conducting efficacy and safety studies in neonates. PMID:25907280

  1. Optimization modeling to maximize population access to comprehensive stroke centers

    PubMed Central

    Branas, Charles C.; Kasner, Scott E.; Wolff, Catherine; Williams, Justin C.; Albright, Karen C.; Carr, Brendan G.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The location of comprehensive stroke centers (CSCs) is critical to ensuring rapid access to acute stroke therapies; we conducted a population-level virtual trial simulating change in access to CSCs using optimization modeling to selectively convert primary stroke centers (PSCs) to CSCs. Methods: Up to 20 certified PSCs per state were selected for conversion to maximize the population with 60-minute CSC access by ground and air. Access was compared across states based on region and the presence of state-level emergency medical service policies preferentially routing patients to stroke centers. Results: In 2010, there were 811 Joint Commission PSCs and 0 CSCs in the United States. Of the US population, 65.8% had 60-minute ground access to PSCs. After adding up to 20 optimally located CSCs per state, 63.1% of the US population had 60-minute ground access and 86.0% had 60-minute ground/air access to a CSC. Across states, median CSC access was 55.7% by ground (interquartile range 35.7%–71.5%) and 85.3% by ground/air (interquartile range 59.8%–92.1%). Ground access was lower in Stroke Belt states compared with non–Stroke Belt states (32.0% vs 58.6%, p = 0.02) and lower in states without emergency medical service routing policies (52.7% vs 68.3%, p = 0.04). Conclusion: Optimal system simulation can be used to develop efficient care systems that maximize accessibility. Under optimal conditions, a large proportion of the US population will be unable to access a CSC within 60 minutes. PMID:25740858

  2. An integro-PDE model from population genetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lou, Yuan; Nagylaki, Thomas; Su, Linlin

    We investigate an integro-partial differential equation that models the evolution of the frequencies for two alleles at a single locus under the joint action of migration, selection, and partial panmixia (i.e., global random mating). We extend previous analyses [T. Nagylaki, Clines with partial panmixia, Theor. Popul. Biol. 81 (2012) 45-68] on the maintenance of both alleles from conservative to arbitrary migration and prove the uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the nontrivial equilibrium. For conservative migration, we show that increasing the rate of panmixia makes it harder to maintain the allele with the smaller average fitness in the population. In terms of the selection function, we estimate the dependence on the panmictic rate of the minimal value of the selection intensity for the persistence of the allele with the smaller average fitness. We also show that, at least in an average sense, increasing panmixia flattens the cline.

  3. Exact Solution of Population Redistributions in a Migration Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xue-Wen; Zhang, Li-Jie; Yang, Guo-Hong; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2013-10-01

    We study a migration model, in which individuals migrate from one community to another. The choices of the source community i and the destination one j are proportional to some power of the population of i (kαi) and j (kβj), respectively. Both analytical calculation and numerical simulation show that the population distribution of communities in stationary states is determined by the parameters α and β. The distribution is widely homogeneous with a characteristic size if α > β. Whereas, for α < β, the distribution is highly heterogeneous with the emergence of condensing phenomenon. Between the two regimes, α = β, the distribution gradually shifts from the nonmonotonous (α < 0) to scale-free (α > 0).

  4. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system.

    PubMed

    Huang, Pu; Feldman, Maximilian; Schroder, Stephan; Bahri, Bochra A; Diao, Xianmin; Zhi, Hui; Estep, Matt; Baxter, Ivan; Devos, Katrien M; Kellogg, Elizabeth A

    2014-10-01

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new model system for C4 grasses and bioenergy crops, due to its rapid life cycle, large amount of seed production and small diploid genome, among other characters. However, remarkably little is known about the genetic diversity in natural populations of this species. In this study, we survey the genetic diversity of a worldwide sample of more than 200 S. viridis accessions, using the genotyping-by-sequencing technique. Two distinct genetic groups in S. viridis and a third group resembling S. italica were identified, with considerable admixture among the three groups. We find the genetic variation of North American S. viridis correlates with both geography and climate and is representative of the total genetic diversity in this species. This pattern may reflect several introduction/dispersal events of S. viridis into North America. We also modelled demographic history and show signal of recent population decline in one subgroup. Finally, we show linkage disequilibrium decay is rapid (<45 kb) in our total sample and slow in genetic subgroups. These results together provide an in-depth understanding of the pattern of genetic diversity of this new model species on a broad geographic scale. They also provide key guidelines for on-going and future work including germplasm preservation, local adaptation, crossing designs and genomewide association studies. PMID:25185718

  5. Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

    2011-01-01

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  6. Towards a continuous population model for natural language vowel shift.

    PubMed

    Shipman, Patrick D; Faria, Sérgio H; Strickland, Christopher

    2013-09-01

    The Great English Vowel Shift of 16th-19th centuries and the current Northern Cities Vowel Shift are two examples of collective language processes characterized by regular phonetic changes, that is, gradual changes in vowel pronunciation over time. Here we develop a structured population approach to modeling such regular changes in the vowel systems of natural languages, taking into account learning patterns and effects such as social trends. We treat vowel pronunciation as a continuous variable in vowel space and allow for a continuous dependence of vowel pronunciation in time and age of the speaker. The theory of mixtures with continuous diversity provides a framework for the model, which extends the McKendrick-von Foerster equation to populations with age and phonetic structures. We develop the general balance equations for such populations and propose explicit expressions for the factors that impact the evolution of the vowel pronunciation distribution. For illustration, we present two examples of numerical simulations. In the first one we study a stationary solution corresponding to a state of phonetic equilibrium, in which speakers of all ages share a similar phonetic profile. We characterize the variance of the phonetic distribution in terms of a parameter measuring a ratio of phonetic attraction to dispersion. In the second example we show how vowel shift occurs upon starting with an initial condition consisting of a majority pronunciation that is affected by an immigrant minority with a different vowel pronunciation distribution. The approach developed here for vowel systems may be applied also to other learning situations and other time-dependent processes of cognition in self-interacting populations, like opinions or perceptions. PMID:23624180

  7. Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

    PubMed

    Riegl, B; Purkis, S J; Keck, J; Rowlands, G P

    2009-01-01

    With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations. PMID:19100585

  8. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Matthieu; Grégoire, Nicolas; Couet, William; Bulitta, Jurgen B

    2016-03-01

    Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  9. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Jacobs, Matthieu; Grégoire, Nicolas; Couet, William; Bulitta, Jurgen B.

    2016-01-01

    Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and

  10. Model of two infectious diseases in nettle caterpillar population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firdausi, F. Z.; Nuraini, N.

    2016-04-01

    Palm oil is a vital commodity to the economy of Indonesia. The area of oil palm plantations in Indonesia has increased from year to year. However, the effectiveness of palm oil production is reduced by pest infestation. One of the pest which often infests oil palm plantations is nettle caterpillar. The pest control used in this study is biological control, viz. biological agents given to oil palm trees. This paper describes a mathematical model of two infectious diseases in nettle caterpillar population. The two infectious diseases arise due to two biological agents, namely Bacillus thuringiensis bacterium and parasite which usually attack nettle caterpillars. The derivation of the model constructed in this paper is obtained from ordinary differential equations without time delay. The equilibrium points are analyzed. Two of three equilibrium points are stable if the Routh-Hurwitz criteria are fulfilled. In addition, this paper also presents the numerical simulation of the model which has been constructed.

  11. Distribution of zooplankton in the Barents Sea in August 2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvoretsky, V. G.; Dvoretsky, A. G.

    2010-12-01

    Forty-two mesozooplankton samples were collected in the Barents Sea during the cruise of the R/V Dal'nie Zelentsy in August 2006. In total, 72 taxa of planktic animals were found. The minimal average mesozooplankton abundance was noted in the Murmansk coastal waters in the south of the sea (154 ind./m3), while the maximal was noted in the Arctic waters (1533 ind./m3). The average wet biomass varied from 32 to 830 mg/m3. The zooplankton abundance and biomass exceeded the relevant average long-term parameters by 1.5-2 times and by 1.2-1.4 times, respectively. The mean biodiversity (Shannon's index) of the zooplankton communities was low: H' = 1.62 ± 0.104 bit/ind.

  12. Zooplankton as Potential Indicators of Biotic Condition in Large Rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medley, K. A.; Havel, J. E.; Jack, J. D.

    2005-05-01

    As part of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, we are examining zooplankton diversity and abundance in three large rivers (Missouri, Ohio, and upper Mississippi). These rivers are particularly interesting because of large differences in their hydrologic patterns, resulting primarily from their different management strategies. Preliminary data from summer 2004 surveys of the Missouri and Ohio rivers reveals high taxonomic diversity of rotifers (32 genera), cladocerans (22 species), and copepods. Rotifers are numerically dominant in all river samples except in the late summer Ohio River samples, where they are occasionally co-dominant with calanoid copepods. Using multivariate analyses, we will present a comparison of zooplankton diversity between rivers, among sites within rivers, and correspondence with 35 physico-chemical properties of the river. These data will be used to develop bioindicators of the current condition of each river in order to support conservation and restoration decisions by management agencies.

  13. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  14. Mathematical modeling of glassy-winged sharpshooter population.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Jeong-Mi; Hrynkiv, Volodymyr; Morano, Lisa; Nguyen, Anh Tuan; Wilder, Sara; Mitchell, Forrest

    2014-06-01

    Pierce's disease (PD) is a fatal disease of grapevines which results from an infection by the plant pathogen Xyllela fastidiosa. This bacterium grows in the xylem (water-conducting) vessels of the plant blocking movement of water. PD can kill vines in one year and poses a serious threat to both the California and the expanding Texas wine industries. Bacteria are vectored from one vine to the next by a number of xylem feeding insect species. Of these, the Glassy-winged Sharpshooter (GWSS) is considered to be the primary xylem feeding insect in Texas vineyards. An extensive database of the xylem-feeding population frequencies was collected by USDA-APHIS for Texas vineyards over multiple years. This project focused on a subset of data, GWSS frequencies within 25 vineyards in Edwards Plateau located in central Texas. The proposed model investigates the natural population dynamics and the decline in GWSS, likely the result of pest management campaigns on the insects within the region. The model is a delay Gompertz differential equation with harvesting and immigration terms, and we use the data to estimate the model parameters. PMID:24506556

  15. Increased zooplankton PAH concentrations across hydrographic fronts in the East China Sea.

    PubMed

    Hung, Chin-Chang; Ko, Fung-Chi; Gong, Gwo-Ching; Chen, Kuo-Shu; Wu, Jian-Ming; Chiang, Hsin-Lun; Peng, Sen-Chueh; Santschi, Peter H

    2014-06-15

    The Changjiang has transported large quantities of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to the East China Sea (ECS), but information of these pollutants in zooplankton is limited. To understand PAHs pollution in zooplankton in the ECS, total concentrations of PAHs in zooplankton from surface waters were measured. Values of PAHs ranged from 2 to 3500 ng m(-3) in the ECS, with highest PAHs levels located at the salinity front between the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) and the mid-shelf waters. In contrast, concentrations of zooplankton PAHs in the mid-shelf and outer-shelf waters were significantly lower (2-23 ng m(-3)) than those in the CDW. These results demonstrate that PAHs are conspicuously accumulated in zooplankton at the salinity front between the CDW and the mid-shelf waters. These higher levels of PAHs in zooplankton at the salinity front may be further biomagnified in marine organisms of higher trophic levels through their feeding activities. PMID:24775063

  16. Spatial and temporal variation in mercury bioaccumulation by zooplankton in Lake Champlain (North America)

    PubMed Central

    Kamman, Neil; Williams, Jason; Bugge, Deenie; Taylor, Vivien; Jackson, Brian; Miller, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Trophic transfer of Hg across lakes within a region has been related to multiple environmental factors, but the nature of these relationships across distinct basins within individual large lakes is unknown. We investigated Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton in basins of differing trophic status in Lake Champlain (Vermont, USA) to determine the strongest predictors of Hg bioaccumulation. Zooplankton were sampled in Malletts Bay (oligotrophic) and Missisquoi Bay (eutrophic) in 2005–2008. Zooplankton in the eutrophic basin had lower concentrations of total Hg and MeHg than those in the oligotrophic basin in all years but 2007, when no bloom occurred in Missisquoi. In addition, Hg concentrations in seston and small zooplankton, sampled during 2009 at 12 sites spanning the lake, decreased with increasing phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Thus, Hg bioaccumulation in zooplankton across basins in Lake Champlain is related to trophic status, as observed previously in multiple lake studies. PMID:21995871

  17. Ingestion of Microplastics by Zooplankton in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Desforges, Jean-Pierre W; Galbraith, Moira; Ross, Peter S

    2015-10-01

    Microplastics are increasingly recognized as being widespread in the world's oceans, but relatively little is known about ingestion by marine biota. In light of the potential for microplastic fibers and fragments to be taken up by small marine organisms, we examined plastic ingestion by two foundation species near the base of North Pacific marine food webs, the calanoid copepod Neocalanus cristatus and the euphausiid Euphausia pacifia. We developed an acid digestion method to assess plastic ingestion by individual zooplankton and detected microplastics in both species. Encounter rates resulting from ingestion were 1 particle/every 34 copepods and 1/every 17 euphausiids (euphausiids > copepods; p = 0.01). Consistent with differences in the size selection of food between these two zooplankton species, the ingested particle size was greater in euphausiids (816 ± 108 μm) than in copepods (556 ± 149 μm) (p = 0.014). The contribution of ingested microplastic fibres to total plastic decreased with distance from shore in euphausiids (r (2) = 70, p = 0.003), corresponding to patterns in our previous observations of microplastics in seawater samples from the same locations. This first evidence of microplastic ingestion by marine zooplankton indicate that species at lower trophic levels of the marine food web are mistaking plastic for food, which raises fundamental questions about potential risks to higher trophic level species. One concern is risk to salmon: We estimate that consumption of microplastic-containing zooplankton will lead to the ingestion of 2-7 microplastic particles/day by individual juvenile salmon in coastal British Columbia, and ≤91 microplastic particles/day in returning adults. PMID:26066061

  18. Flow disturbances generated by feeding and swimming zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Jiang, Houshuo; Gonçalves, Rodrigo Javier; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Wadhwa, Navish

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between planktonic organisms, such as detection of prey, predators, and mates, are often mediated by fluid signals. Consequently, many plankton predators perceive their prey from the fluid disturbances that it generates when it feeds and swims. Zooplankton should therefore seek to minimize the fluid disturbance that they produce. By means of particle image velocimetry, we describe the fluid disturbances produced by feeding and swimming in zooplankton with diverse propulsion mechanisms and ranging from 10-µm flagellates to greater than millimeter-sized copepods. We show that zooplankton, in which feeding and swimming are separate processes, produce flow disturbances during swimming with a much faster spatial attenuation (velocity u varies with distance r as u ∝ r−3 to r−4) than that produced by zooplankton for which feeding and propulsion are the same process (u ∝ r−1 to r−2). As a result, the spatial extension of the fluid disturbance produced by swimmers is an order of magnitude smaller than that produced by feeders at similar Reynolds numbers. The “quiet” propulsion of swimmers is achieved either through swimming erratically by short-lasting power strokes, generating viscous vortex rings, or by “breast-stroke swimming.” Both produce rapidly attenuating flows. The more “noisy” swimming of those that are constrained by a need to simultaneously feed is due to constantly beating flagella or appendages that are positioned either anteriorly or posteriorly on the (cell) body. These patterns transcend differences in size and taxonomy and have thus evolved multiple times, suggesting a strong selective pressure to minimize predation risk. PMID:25071196

  19. Zooplankton fecal pellets link fossil fuel and phosphate deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.G.; Robbins, E.I.

    1981-01-01

    Fossil zooplankton fecal pellets found in thinly bedded marine and lacustrine black shales associated with phosphate, oil, and coal deposits, link the deposition of organic matter and biologically associated minerals with planktonic ecosystems. The black shales were probably formed in the anoxic basins of coastal marine waters, inland seas, and rift valley lakes where high productivity was supported by runoff, upwelling, and outwelling. Copyright ?? 1981 AAAS.

  20. Flow disturbances generated by feeding and swimming zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Jiang, Houshuo; Gonçalves, Rodrigo Javier; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Wadhwa, Navish

    2014-08-12

    Interactions between planktonic organisms, such as detection of prey, predators, and mates, are often mediated by fluid signals. Consequently, many plankton predators perceive their prey from the fluid disturbances that it generates when it feeds and swims. Zooplankton should therefore seek to minimize the fluid disturbance that they produce. By means of particle image velocimetry, we describe the fluid disturbances produced by feeding and swimming in zooplankton with diverse propulsion mechanisms and ranging from 10-µm flagellates to greater than millimeter-sized copepods. We show that zooplankton, in which feeding and swimming are separate processes, produce flow disturbances during swimming with a much faster spatial attenuation (velocity u varies with distance r as u ∝ r(-3) to r(-4)) than that produced by zooplankton for which feeding and propulsion are the same process (u ∝ r(-1) to r(-2)). As a result, the spatial extension of the fluid disturbance produced by swimmers is an order of magnitude smaller than that produced by feeders at similar Reynolds numbers. The "quiet" propulsion of swimmers is achieved either through swimming erratically by short-lasting power strokes, generating viscous vortex rings, or by "breast-stroke swimming." Both produce rapidly attenuating flows. The more "noisy" swimming of those that are constrained by a need to simultaneously feed is due to constantly beating flagella or appendages that are positioned either anteriorly or posteriorly on the (cell) body. These patterns transcend differences in size and taxonomy and have thus evolved multiple times, suggesting a strong selective pressure to minimize predation risk. PMID:25071196

  1. Population imbalance in the extended Fermi-Hubbard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhar, A.; Kinnunen, J. J.; Törmä, P.

    2016-08-01

    We study the interplay between population imbalance in a two-component fermionic system and nearest-neighbor interaction using the matrix product states method. Our analysis reveals a parameter regime for the existence of the Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov phase. Furthermore, we find distinct evidence for the presence of hidden order in the system. We present an effective model to understand the emergent oscillations in the string correlations due to the imbalance and show how they can become an efficient tool to investigate systems with imbalance.

  2. Biomass of zooplankton estimated by acoustical sensors in the Arabian sea. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Holliday, D.V.

    1996-11-22

    The long term goal of our overall research program is the development of data-based models to predict ecological relationships of zooplankton, phytoplankton and the physical environment in the sea. The overall objective of the work carried out within the scope of this particular contract was to acoustically measure the dynamics of zooplankton and micronekton in the northern Arabian Sea during several seasons. The scientific focus was to examine the impact, if any, of the two annual monsoons that are thought to drive the ecosystem response in the area. This particular project involved the design and construction of two sensors which were then deployed in the Arabian Sea by several of our co-PIVs in the ONR ARI on Forced Upper Ocean Dynamics during the time period in which the JGOFS program also focused their efforts on the northern Arabian Sea. This contract involved only the development, calibration and maintenance of the instrumentation. The data processing, other than that which has been necessary for the purposes of quality assurance, was not induded in our original proposal.

  3. Chemical Response of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi Against Grazing by Three Species of Zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Dang, Lin-Xi; Li, Yue; Liu, Fei; Zhang, Yong; Yang, Wei-Dong; Li, Hong-Ye; Liu, Jie-Sheng

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the toxicity of Karenia mikimotoi toward three model grazers, the cladoceran Moina mongolica, the copepod Pseudodiaptomus annandalei, and the crustacean Artemia salina, and explored its chemical response upon zooplankton grazing. An induction experiment, where K. mikimotoi was exposed to grazers or waterborne cues from the mixed cultures revealed that K. mikimotoi might be toxic or nutritionally inadequate toward the three grazers. In general, direct exposure to the three grazers induced the production of hemolytic toxins and the synthesis of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA). Both EPA and the hemolytic toxins from K. mikimotoi decreased the survival rate of the three grazers. In addition, the survival rates of M. mongolica, P. annandalei, and A. salina in the presence of induced K. mikimotoi that had previously been exposed to a certain grazer were lower than their counterparts caused by fresh K. mikimotoi, suggesting that exposure to some grazers might increase the toxicity of K. mikimotoi. The chemical response and associated increased resistance to further grazing suggested that K. mikimotoi could produce deterrents to protect against grazing by zooplankton and that the substances responsible might be hemolytic toxins and EPA. PMID:25523905

  4. Terrestrial carbohydrates support freshwater zooplankton during phytoplankton deficiency

    PubMed Central

    Taipale, Sami J.; Galloway, Aaron W. E.; Aalto, Sanni L.; Kahilainen, Kimmo K.; Strandberg, Ursula; Kankaala, Paula

    2016-01-01

    Freshwater food webs can be partly supported by terrestrial primary production, often deriving from plant litter of surrounding catchment vegetation. Although consisting mainly of poorly bioavailable lignin, with low protein and lipid content, the carbohydrates from fallen tree leaves and shoreline vegetation may be utilized by aquatic consumers. Here we show that during phytoplankton deficiency, zooplankton (Daphnia magna) can benefit from terrestrial particulate organic matter by using terrestrial-origin carbohydrates for energy and sparing essential fatty acids and amino acids for somatic growth and reproduction. Assimilated terrestrial-origin fatty acids from shoreline reed particles exceeded available diet, indicating that Daphnia may convert a part of their dietary carbohydrates to saturated fatty acids. This conversion was not observed with birch leaf diets, which had lower carbohydrate content. Subsequent analysis of 21 boreal and subarctic lakes showed that diet of herbivorous zooplankton is mainly based on high-quality phytoplankton rich in essential polyunsaturated fatty acids. The proportion of low-quality diets (bacteria and terrestrial particulate organic matter) was <28% of the assimilated carbon. Taken collectively, the incorporation of terrestrial carbon into zooplankton was not directly related to the concentration of terrestrial organic matter in experiments or lakes, but rather to the low availability of phytoplankton. PMID:27510848

  5. Terrestrial carbohydrates support freshwater zooplankton during phytoplankton deficiency.

    PubMed

    Taipale, Sami J; Galloway, Aaron W E; Aalto, Sanni L; Kahilainen, Kimmo K; Strandberg, Ursula; Kankaala, Paula

    2016-01-01

    Freshwater food webs can be partly supported by terrestrial primary production, often deriving from plant litter of surrounding catchment vegetation. Although consisting mainly of poorly bioavailable lignin, with low protein and lipid content, the carbohydrates from fallen tree leaves and shoreline vegetation may be utilized by aquatic consumers. Here we show that during phytoplankton deficiency, zooplankton (Daphnia magna) can benefit from terrestrial particulate organic matter by using terrestrial-origin carbohydrates for energy and sparing essential fatty acids and amino acids for somatic growth and reproduction. Assimilated terrestrial-origin fatty acids from shoreline reed particles exceeded available diet, indicating that Daphnia may convert a part of their dietary carbohydrates to saturated fatty acids. This conversion was not observed with birch leaf diets, which had lower carbohydrate content. Subsequent analysis of 21 boreal and subarctic lakes showed that diet of herbivorous zooplankton is mainly based on high-quality phytoplankton rich in essential polyunsaturated fatty acids. The proportion of low-quality diets (bacteria and terrestrial particulate organic matter) was <28% of the assimilated carbon. Taken collectively, the incorporation of terrestrial carbon into zooplankton was not directly related to the concentration of terrestrial organic matter in experiments or lakes, but rather to the low availability of phytoplankton. PMID:27510848

  6. Effects of temperature on the metabolic stoichiometry of Arctic zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alcaraz, M.; Almeda, R.; Saiz, E.; Calbet, A.; Duarte, C. M.; Agustí, S.; Santiago, R.; Alonso, A.

    2013-02-01

    We assessed the relationship between zooplankton metabolism (respiration and inorganic N and P excretion) and "in situ" temperature through a grid of stations representing a range of natural temperature variation during the ATOS-Arctic cruise (July 2007). The objective was to explore not only the direct effects of temperature on zooplankton carbon respiratory losses (hereafter CR) and NH4-N and PO4-P excretion rates (hereafter NE and PE, respectively), but also to investigate whether these metabolic pathways responded similarly to temperature, and so how temperature could affect the stoichiometry of the metabolic products. Metabolic rates, normalised to per unit of zooplankton carbon biomass, increased with increasing temperature following the Arrhenius equation. However, the activation energy differed for the various metabolic processes considered. Respiration, CR, was the metabolic activity least affected by temperature, followed by NE and PE, and as a consequence the values of the CR : NE, CR : PE and NE : PE atomic quotients were inversely related to temperature. The effects of temperature on the stoichiometry of the excreted N and P products would contribute to modifying the nutrient pool available for phytoplankton and induce qualitative and quantitative shifts in the size, community structure and chemical composition of primary producers that could possibly translate to the whole Arctic marine food web.

  7. Interactive effects of temperature, ultraviolet radiation and food quality on zooplankton alkaline phosphatase activity.

    PubMed

    Wolinski, Laura; Modenutti, Beatriz; Souza, Maria Sol; Balseiro, Esteban

    2016-06-01

    Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR) is a stressor for aquatic organisms affecting enzyme activities in planktonic populations because of the increase in reactive oxygen species. In addition, UVR exposure combined with other environmental factors (i.e. temperature and food quality) could have even higher detrimental effects. In this work, we aimed to determine the effect of UVR on somatic Alkaline Phosphatase Activity (APA) and Glutathione S-Transferase (GST) activity on the cladoceran Daphnia commutata under two different temperatures (10 °C and 20 °C) and under three food qualities (carbon:phosphorus ratios: 1150, 850 and 550). APA is a biomarker that is considered as a P deficiency indicator in zooplankton. Since recovery from UVR damage under dark conditions is an ATP depending reaction we also measured APA during recovery phases. We carried out a laboratory experiment combining different temperatures and food qualities with exposition to UVR followed by luminic and dark phases for recovery. In addition, we exposed organisms to H2O2, to establish if the response on APA to UVR was a consequence of the reactive oxygen species produced these short wavelengths. Our results showed that somatic APA was negatively affected by UVR exposure and this effect was enhanced under high temperature and low food quality. Consistently, GST activity was higher when exposed to UVR under both temperatures. The H2O2 experiments showed the same trend as UVR exposure, indicating that APA is affected mainly by oxidative stress than by direct effect of UVR on the enzyme. Finally, APA was affected in the dark phase of recovery confirming the P demands. These results enlighten the importance of food quality in the interacting effect of UVR and temperature, showing that C:P food ratio could determine the success or failure of zooplanktonic populations in a context of global change. PMID:26895537

  8. Diel vertical migration: Ecological controls and impacts on the biological pump in a one-dimensional ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchi, Daniele; Stock, Charles; Galbraith, Eric D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2013-04-01

    vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton and micronekton is widespread in the ocean and forms a fundamental component of the biological pump, but is generally overlooked in global models of the Earth system. We develop a parameterization of DVM in the ocean and integrate it with a size-structured NPZD model. We assess the model's ability to recreate ecosystem and DVM patterns at three well-observed Pacific sites, ALOHA, K2, and EQPAC, and use it to estimate the impact of DVM on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical dynamics. Our model includes the following: (1) a representation of migration dynamics in response to food availability and light intensity; (2) a representation of the digestive and metabolic processes that decouple zooplankton feeding from excretion, egestion, and respiration; and (3) a light-dependent parameterization of visual predation on zooplankton. The model captures the first-order patterns in plankton biomass and productivity across the biomes, including the biomass of migrating organisms. We estimate that realistic migratory populations sustain active fluxes to the mesopelagic zone equivalent to between 15% and 40% of the particle export and contribute up to half of the total respiration within the layers affected by migration. The localized active transport has important consequences for the cycling of oxygen, nutrients, and carbon. We highlight the importance of decoupling zooplankton feeding and respiration and excretion with depth for capturing the impact of migration on the redistribution of carbon and nutrients in the upper ocean.

  9. Mathematical model of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti mosquito population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldila, D.; Nuraini, N.; Soewono, E.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2014-03-01

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Dengue became major public concern in these countries due to the unavailability of vaccine or drugs for dengue disease in the market. Hence, the only way to control the spread of DF and DHF is by controlling the vectors carrying the disease, for instance with fumigation, temephos or genetic manipulation. Many previous studies conclude that Aedes aegypti may develop resistance to many kind of insecticide, including temephos. Mathematical model for transmission of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti population is discussed in this paper. Nontrivial equilibrium point of the system and the corresponding existence are shown analytically. The model analysis have shown epidemiological trends condition that permits the coexistence of nontrivial equilibrium is given analytically. Numerical results are given to show parameter sensitivity and some cases of worsening effect values for illustrating possible conditions in the field.

  10. Noise-induced extinction in Bazykin-Berezovskaya population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bashkirtseva, Irina; Ryashko, Lev

    2016-07-01

    A nonlinear Bazykin-Berezovskaya prey-predator model under the influence of parametric stochastic forcing is considered. Due to Allee effect, this conceptual population model even in the deterministic case demonstrates both local and global bifurcations with the change of predator mortality. It is shown that random noise can transform system dynamics from the regime of coexistence, in equilibrium or periodic modes, to the extinction of both species. Geometry of attractors and separatrices, dividing basins of attraction, plays an important role in understanding the probabilistic mechanisms of these stochastic phenomena. Parametric analysis of noise-induced extinction is carried out on the base of the direct numerical simulation and new analytical stochastic sensitivity functions technique taking into account the arrangement of attractors and separatrices.

  11. Estimating population trends with a linear model: technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  12. Zooplankton diversity analysis through single-gene sequencing of a community sample

    PubMed Central

    Machida, Ryuji J; Hashiguchi, Yasuyuki; Nishida, Mutsumi; Nishida, Shuhei

    2009-01-01

    Background Oceans cover more than 70% of the earth's surface and are critical for the homeostasis of the environment. Among the components of the ocean ecosystem, zooplankton play vital roles in energy and matter transfer through the system. Despite their importance, understanding of zooplankton biodiversity is limited because of their fragile nature, small body size, and the large number of species from various taxonomic phyla. Here we present the results of single-gene zooplankton community analysis using a method that determines a large number of mitochondrial COI gene sequences from a bulk zooplankton sample. This approach will enable us to estimate the species richness of almost the entire zooplankton community. Results A sample was collected from a depth of 721 m to the surface in the western equatorial Pacific off Pohnpei Island, Micronesia, with a plankton net equipped with a 2-m2 mouth opening. A total of 1,336 mitochondrial COI gene sequences were determined from the cDNA library made from the sample. From the determined sequences, the occurrence of 189 species of zooplankton was estimated. BLASTN search results showed high degrees of similarity (>98%) between the query and database for 10 species, including holozooplankton and merozooplankton. Conclusion In conjunction with the Census of Marine Zooplankton and Barcode of Life projects, single-gene zooplankton community analysis will be a powerful tool for estimating the species richness of zooplankton communities. PMID:19758460

  13. Selenium in San Francisco Bay zooplankton: Potential effects of hydrodynamics and food web interactions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Purkerson, D.G.; Doblin, M.A.; Bollens, S.M.; Luoma, S.N.; Cutter, G.A.

    2003-01-01

    The potential toxicity of elevated selenium (Se) concentrations in aquatic ecosystems has stimulated efforts to measure Se concentrations in benthos, nekton, and waterfowl in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay). In September 1998, we initiated a 14 mo field study to determine the concentration of Se in SF Bay zooplankton, which play a major role in the Bay food web, but which have not previously been studied with respect to Se. Monthly vertical plankton tows were collected at several stations throughout SF Bay, and zooplankton were separated into two operationally defined size classes for Se analyses: 73-2,000 ??m, and ???2,000 ??m. Selenium values ranged 1.02-6.07 ??g Se g-1 dry weight. No spatial differences in zooplankton Se concentrations were found. However, there were inter- and intra-annual differences. Zooplankton Se concentrations were enriched in the North Bay in Fall 1999 when compared to other seasons and locations within and outside SF Bay. The abundance and biovolume of the zooplankton community varied spatially between stations, but not seasonally within each station. Smaller herbivorous-omnivorous zooplankton had higher Se concentrations than larger omnivorous-carnivorous zooplankton. Selenium concentrations in zooplankton were negatively correlated with the proportion of total copepod biovolume comprising the large carnivorous copepod Tortanus dextrilobatus, but positively correlated with the proportion of copepod biovolume comprising smaller copepods of the family Oithonidae, suggesting an important role of trophic level and size in regulating zooplankton Se concentrations.

  14. Modelling Oyster Population Response to Variation in Freshwater Input

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livingston, R. J.; Lewis, F. G.; Woodsum, G. C.; Niu, X.-F.; Galperin, B.; Huang, W.; Christensen, J. D.; Monaco, M. E.; Battista, T. A.; Klein, C. J.; Howell, R. L.; Ray, G. L.

    2000-05-01

    This paper describes the linkage of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic circulation model with descriptive and experimental biological data concerning oyster (Crassostrea virginica) population dynamics in the Apalachicola Estuary (Florida, U.S.A.). Our intent was to determine the direct and indirect role of Apalachicola River flow in the maintenance of oyster production. Results of a monthly field sampling programme conducted on the oyster reefs in the Apalachicola system during 1985-1986 were used to develop statistical models relating several life-history characteristics of oysters to physical-chemical aspects of water quality. The same life-history characteristics were related statistically to output from a circulation model of Apalachicola Bay. Highest oyster densities and overall bar growth were found in the vicinity of the confluence of high salinity water moving westwards from St George Sound and river-dominated (low salinity) water moving south and eastwards from East Bay. With the exception of models for oyster mortality, the predictive capability of results from the parallel modelling efforts was low. A time-averaged model was developed for oyster mortality during the summer of 1985 by running a regression analysis with averaged predictors derived from the hydrodynamic model and observed (experimental) mortality rates throughout the estuary. A geographic information system was then used to depict the results spatially and to compare the extent of expected mortality in 1985 and 1986. High salinity, relatively low-velocity current patterns, and the proximity of a given oyster bar to entry points of saline Gulf water into the bay were important factors that contribute to increased oyster mortality. Mortality was a major determinant of oyster production in the Apalachicola Estuary with predation as a significant aspect of such mortality. By influencing salinity levels and current patterns throughout the bay, the Apalachicola River was important in controlling

  15. POPULATION PHARMACOKINETIC/DYNAMIC MODEL OF LYMPHOSUPPRESSION AFTER FLUDARABINE ADMINISTRATION

    PubMed Central

    McCune, Jeannine S.; Vicini, Paolo; Salinger, David H.; O’Donnell, Paul V.; Sandmaier, Brenda M.; Anasetti, Claudio; Mager, Donald E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Quantitative relationships between 9-β-D-arabinofuranosyl-2-fluoroadenine (F-ara-A) concentrations and lymphosuppression have not been reported, but would be useful for regimen design. A population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model was constructed in this study using data from 41 hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients conditioned with busulfan in combination with fludarabine (total dose 120 mg/m2, Protocol 1519) or with fludarabine (total dose 250 mg/m2) with rabbit antithymocyte globulin (rATG, Protocol 2041). Methods Individual pharmacokinetic parameters were fixed to post-hoc Bayesian estimates, and circulating absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC) were obtained during the three weeks prior to graft infusion. A semi-physiological cell kill model with three lymphocyte transit compartments was applied and aptly characterized the time-course of suppression of circulating ALC by fludarabine administration. Drug and system-specific parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood expectation maximization algorithm, and the final model was qualified using an internal visual predictive check. Results The final model successfully characterized the time-course and variability in ALC. Pharmacodynamic parameters exhibited considerable between subject variability (38.9-211%). The HCT protocol was the only covariate associated with the pharmacodynamic parameters, specifically the lymphocyte kill rate, the transit rate between lymphocyte compartments, and the baseline ALC. Conclusions This model can be used to simulate the degree of lymphosuppression for design of future fludarabine-based conditioning regimens. PMID:25374408

  16. [Population surveys as management tools and health care models].

    PubMed

    Andrade, Flávia Reis de; Narvai, Paulo Capel

    2013-12-01

    The article briefly systematizes health care models, emphasizes the role of population surveys as a management tool and analyzes the specific case of the Brazilian Oral Health Survey (SBBrasil 2010) and its contribution to the consolidation process of health care models consistent with the principles of the Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS, Public Health Care System). While in legal terms SUS corresponds to a health care model, in actual practice the public policy planning and health action, the system gives rise to a care model which is not the result of legal texts or theoretical formulations, but rather the praxis of the personnel involved. Bearing in mind that the management of day-to-day health affairs is a privileged space for the production and consolidation of health care models, it is necessary to stimulate and support the development of technical and operational skills which are different from those required for the management of care related to individual demands. PMID:24626592

  17. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  18. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of

  19. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring.

    PubMed

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gårdmark, Anna

    2011-07-01

    Small pelagic fish occupy a central position in marine ecosystems worldwide, largely by determining the energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators at the top of the food web, including humans. Population dynamics of small pelagic fish may therefore be regulated neither strictly bottom-up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue. Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) also was evident, these factors were less important than resource availability and interspecific competition. Understanding key ecological processes and interactions is fundamental to ecosystem-based management practices necessary to promote sustainable exploitation of small pelagic fish. PMID:21870614

  20. Biomass of zooplankton in the eastern Arctic Ocean - A base line study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosobokova, Ksenia; Hirche, Hans-Jürgen

    2009-09-01

    Only a few historical assessments of the zooplankton biomass in the Arctic Ocean exist are difficult to compare due to methodological differences including incomplete sampling of the water column. We present assessments of the zooplankton biomass for 66 locations scattered over the Eurasian and Makarov Basins of the Arctic Ocean and analyze regional variability and factors affecting the biomass distribution. The study is based on material from several summer expeditions of RV Polarstern (1993-1998) that was collected and processed using consistent methods, i.e. stratified sampling of the entire water column from the bottom to the surface with very similar gear and standardized calculation of biomass. Total zooplankton biomass varied strongly from 1.9 to 23.9 g DW m -2 dry mass. Regional variability was mainly related to the circulation pattern, but local food availability was also important. A belt of elevated biomass along the Eurasian continental margin was associated with the advection of Atlantic pelagic populations within the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current along the Siberian shelves and returning branches along mid-ocean ridges. Biomass was highest in the core of the Atlantic inflow and remained rather stable along the continental margins, but species composition changed, pointing to different adaptation levels to local conditions by advected species. Biomass gradually decreased towards the shelves and basins and was lowest in the centers of the basins north of 85°N. In the slope region, three Calanus species ( C. hyperboreus, C. glacialis, C. finmarchicus) and Metridia longa contributed most to the biomass, chaetognaths ( Eukrohnia hamata) were also important. In the basins, C. hyperboreus was dominant, copepods made up to 97% of total biomass. Vertical distribution was similar at all stations with biomass maxima in the upper 50 m layer except for stations near Fram Strait and northern Kara Sea, the gateways of Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean, where maxima

  1. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  2. Complex Transition to Cooperative Behavior in a Structured Population Model

    PubMed Central

    Miranda, Luciano; de Souza, Adauto J. F.; Ferreira, Fernando F.; Campos, Paulo R. A.

    2012-01-01

    Cooperation plays an important role in the evolution of species and human societies. The understanding of the emergence and persistence of cooperation in those systems is a fascinating and fundamental question. Many mechanisms were extensively studied and proposed as supporting cooperation. The current work addresses the role of migration for the maintenance of cooperation in structured populations. This problem is investigated in an evolutionary perspective through the prisoner's dilemma game paradigm. It is found that migration and structure play an essential role in the evolution of the cooperative behavior. The possible outcomes of the model are extinction of the entire population, dominance of the cooperative strategy and coexistence between cooperators and defectors. The coexistence phase is obtained in the range of large migration rates. It is also verified the existence of a critical level of structuring beyond that cooperation is always likely. In resume, we conclude that the increase in the number of demes as well as in the migration rate favor the fixation of the cooperative behavior. PMID:22761736

  3. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    PubMed

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-04-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. PMID:23539229

  4. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    PubMed

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-01-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. PMID:24496184

  5. Modeling the Salivary Cortisol Profile in Population Research

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez, Brisa N.; Wu, Meihua; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.; Diez-Roux, Ana V.

    2012-01-01

    In many studies, it has been hypothesized that stress and its biologic consequences may contribute to disparities in rates of cardiovascular disease. However, understanding of the most appropriate statistical methods to analyze biologic markers of stress, such as salivary cortisol, remains limited. The authors explore the utility of various statistical methods in modeling daily cortisol profiles in population-based studies. They demonstrate that the proposed methods allow additional insight into the cortisol profile compared with commonly used summaries of the profiles based on raw data. For instance, one can gain insights regarding the shape of the population average curve, characterize the types of individual-level departures from the average curve, and better understand the relation between covariates and attained cortisol levels or slopes at various points of the day, in addition to drawing inferences regarding common features of the cortisol profile, such as the cortisol awakening response and the area under the curve. The authors compare the inference and interpretations drawn from these methods and use data collected as part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to illustrate them. PMID:23100245

  6. Asymptotic distribution of stage-grouped population models.

    PubMed

    Zetlaoui, M; Picard, N; Bar-Hen, A

    2006-03-01

    Matrix models are often used to predict the dynamics of size-structured or age-structured populations. The asymptotic behaviour of such models is defined by their malthusian growth rate lambda, and by their stationary distribution w that gives the asymptotic proportion of individuals in each stage. As the coefficients of the transition matrix are estimated from a sample of observations, lambda and w can be considered as random variables whose law depends on the distribution of the observations. The goal of this study is to specify the asymptotic law of lambda and w when using the maximum likelihood estimators of the coefficients of the transition matrix. We prove that lambda and w are asymptotically normal, and the expressions of the asymptotic variance of lambda and of the asymptotic covariance matrix of w are given. The convergence speed of lambda and w towards their asymptotic law is studied using simulations. The results are applied to a real case study that consists of a Usher model for a tropical rain forest in French Guiana. They permit to assess the number of trees to measure to get a given precision on the estimated asymptotic diameter distribution, which is an important information on tropical forest management. PMID:16427655

  7. A Simple Model of Optimal Population Coding for Sensory Systems

    PubMed Central

    Doi, Eizaburo; Lewicki, Michael S.

    2014-01-01

    A fundamental task of a sensory system is to infer information about the environment. It has long been suggested that an important goal of the first stage of this process is to encode the raw sensory signal efficiently by reducing its redundancy in the neural representation. Some redundancy, however, would be expected because it can provide robustness to noise inherent in the system. Encoding the raw sensory signal itself is also problematic, because it contains distortion and noise. The optimal solution would be constrained further by limited biological resources. Here, we analyze a simple theoretical model that incorporates these key aspects of sensory coding, and apply it to conditions in the retina. The model specifies the optimal way to incorporate redundancy in a population of noisy neurons, while also optimally compensating for sensory distortion and noise. Importantly, it allows an arbitrary input-to-output cell ratio between sensory units (photoreceptors) and encoding units (retinal ganglion cells), providing predictions of retinal codes at different eccentricities. Compared to earlier models based on redundancy reduction, the proposed model conveys more information about the original signal. Interestingly, redundancy reduction can be near-optimal when the number of encoding units is limited, such as in the peripheral retina. We show that there exist multiple, equally-optimal solutions whose receptive field structure and organization vary significantly. Among these, the one which maximizes the spatial locality of the computation, but not the sparsity of either synaptic weights or neural responses, is consistent with known basic properties of retinal receptive fields. The model further predicts that receptive field structure changes less with light adaptation at higher input-to-output cell ratios, such as in the periphery. PMID:25121492

  8. Solar UVB-induced DNA damage and photoenzymatic DNA repair in antarctic zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Malloy, K.D.; Holman, M.A.; Mitchell, D.

    1997-02-18

    The detrimental effects of elevated intensities of mid-UV radiation (UVB), a result of stratospheric ozone depletion during the austral spring, on the primary producers of the Antarctic marine ecosystem have been well documented. Here we report that natural populations of Antarctic zooplankton also sustain significant DNA damage [measured as cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs)] during periods of increased UVB flux. This is the first direct evidence that increased solar UVB may result in damage to marine organisms other than primary producers in Antarctica. The extent of DNA damage in pelagic icefish eggs correlated with daily incident UVB irradiance, reflecting the difference between acquisition and repair of CPDs. Patterns of DNA damage in fish larvae did not correlated with daily UVB flux, possibly due to different depth distributions and/or different capacities for DNA repair. Clearance of CPDs by Antarctic fish and krill was mediated primarily by the photoenzymatic repair system. Although repair rates were large for all species evaluated, they were apparently inadequate to prevent the transient accumulation of substantial CPD burdens. The capacity for DNA repair in Antarctic organisms was highest in those species whose early life history stages occupy the water column during periods of ozone depletion (austral spring) and lowest in fish species whose eggs and larvae are abundant during winter. Although the potential reduction in fitness of Antarctic zooplankton resulting from DNA damage is unknown, we suggest that increased solar UV may reduce recruitment and adversely affect trophic transfer of productivity by affecting heterotrophic species as well as primary producers. 54 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Solar UVB-induced DNA damage and photoenzymatic DNA repair in antarctic zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Malloy, K D; Holman, M A; Mitchell, D; Detrich, H W

    1997-02-18

    The detrimental effects of elevated intensities of mid-UV radiation (UVB), a result of stratospheric ozone depletion during the austral spring, on the primary producers of the Antarctic marine ecosystem have been well documented. Here we report that natural populations of Antarctic zooplankton also sustain significant DNA damage [measured as cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs)] during periods of increased UVB flux. This is the first direct evidence that increased solar UVB may result in damage to marine organisms other than primary producers in Antarctica. The extent of DNA damage in pelagic icefish eggs correlated with daily incident UVB irradiance, reflecting the difference between acquisition and repair of CPDs. Patterns of DNA damage in fish larvae did not correlate with daily UVB flux, possibly due to different depth distributions and/or different capacities for DNA repair. Clearance of CPDs by Antarctic fish and krill was mediated primarily by the photoenzymatic repair system. Although repair rates were large for all species evaluated, they were apparently inadequate to prevent the transient accumulation of substantial CPD burdens. The capacity for DNA repair in Antarctic organisms was highest in those species whose early life history stages occupy the water column during periods of ozone depletion (austral spring) and lowest in fish species whose eggs and larvae are abundant during winter. Although the potential reduction in fitness of Antarctic zooplankton resulting from DNA damage is unknown, we suggest that increased solar UV may reduce recruitment and adversely affect trophic transfer of productivity by affecting heterotrophic species as well as primary producers. PMID:9037040

  10. Population Bottlenecks and Nonequilibrium Models in Population Genetics. III. Genic Homozygosity in Populations Which Experience Periodic Bottlenecks

    PubMed Central

    Maruyama, Takeo; Fuerst, Paul A.

    1985-01-01

    The amount of variability in a population that experiences repeated restrictions in population size has been calculated. The restrictions in size occur cyclically with a fixed cycle length. Analytical formulas for describing the gene identity at any specific time in the expanded and restricted phases of the cycle, and for the average and second moment of the gene identity, have been derived. It is shown that the level of genetic diversity depends critically on the two parameters that account for the population size, mutation rate and the time of duration for each of the two phases in the cycle. If one or both of these composite parameters are small, the gene diversity will be much reduced, and population gene diversity will then be predictable from knowledge of the harmonic mean population size over the entire cycle. If these parameters take on intermediate values, diversity changes constantly during the cycle, fluctuating steadily from a high to a low value and back again. If these parameters are large, gene diversity will fluctuate rapidly between extreme values and will stay at the extremes for long periods of time. PMID:4054613

  11. Population Bottlenecks and Nonequilibrium Models in Population Genetics. I. Allele Numbers When Populations Evolve from Zero Variability

    PubMed Central

    Maruyama, Takeo; Fuerst, Paul A.

    1984-01-01

    A simple numerical method was developed for the mean number and average age of alleles in a population that was initiated with no genetic variation following a sudden population expansion. The methods are used to examine the question of whether allele numbers are elevated compared with values seen in equilibrium populations having equivalent gene diversity. Excess allele numbers in expanding populations were found to be the rule. This was true whether the population began with zero variation or with low levels of variation in either of two initial distributions (initially an equilibrium allele frequency distribution or initially with loci occurring in only two classes of variation). Although the increase of alleles may persist for only a short time, when compared with the time which is required for approach to final equilibrium, the increase may be long when measured in absolute generation numbers. The pattern of increase in very rare alleles (those present only once in a sample) and the persistence of the original allele were also investigated. PMID:6500263

  12. Effects of stochastic population fluctuations in two models of biological macroevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu; Rikvold, Per Arne

    Two mathematical models of macroevolution are studied. These models have population dynamics at the species level, and mutations and extinction of species are also included. The population dynamics are updated by difference equations with stochastic noise terms that characterize population fluctuations. The effects of the stochastic population fluctuations on diversity and total population sizes on evolutionary time scales are studied. In one model, species can make either predator-prey, mutualistic, or competitive interactions, while the other model allows only predator-prey interactions. When the noise in the population dynamics is strong enough, both models show intermittent behavior and their power spectral densities show approximate 1/f fluctuations. In the noiseless limit, the two models have different power spectral densities. For the predator-prey model, 1/f2 fluctuations appears, indicating random-walk like behavior, while the other model still shows 1/f noise. These results indicate that stochastic population fluctuations may significantly affect long-time evolutionary dynamics.

  13. Population differentiation in Daphnia alters community assembly in experimental ponds.

    PubMed

    Pantel, Jelena H; Leibold, Mathew A; Juenger, Thomas E

    2011-03-01

    Most studies of community assembly ignore how genetic differentiation within species affects their colonization and extinction. However, genetic differentiation in ecologically relevant traits may be substantial enough to alter the colonization and extinction processes that drive community assembly. We measured significant molecular genetic and quantitative trait differentiation among three Daphnia pulex × pulicaria populations in southwestern Michigan ponds and investigated whether this differentiation could alter the assembly of pond zooplankton communities in experimental mesocosms. In this study, we monitored the invasion success of different D. pulex × pulicaria populations after their introduction into an established zooplankton community. We also monitored the invasion success of a diverse array of zooplankton species into different D. pulex × pulicaria populations. Zooplankton community composition depended on the D. pulex × pulicaria source population. Daphnia pulex × pulicaria from one population failed to invade zooplankton communities, while those from other populations successfully invaded similar communities. If population differentiation in other species plays a role in community assembly similar to that demonstrated in our study, assembly may be more sensitive to evolutionary processes than has been previously generally considered. PMID:21460540

  14. Basic Concepts in Population Modeling, Simulation, and Model-Based Drug Development

    PubMed Central

    Mould, D R; Upton, R N

    2012-01-01

    Modeling is an important tool in drug development; population modeling is a complex process requiring robust underlying procedures for ensuring clean data, appropriate computing platforms, adequate resources, and effective communication. Although requiring an investment in resources, it can save time and money by providing a platform for integrating all information gathered on new therapeutic agents. This article provides a brief overview of aspects of modeling and simulation as applied to many areas in drug development. PMID:23835886

  15. Modelling targets for anticancer drug control optimization in physiologically structured cell population models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billy, Frédérique; Clairambault, Jean; Fercoq, Olivier; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Lorz, Alexander; Perthame, Benoît

    2012-09-01

    The main two pitfalls of therapeutics in clinical oncology, that limit increasing drug doses, are unwanted toxic side effects on healthy cell populations and occurrence of resistance to drugs in cancer cell populations. Depending on the constraint considered in the control problem at stake, toxicity or drug resistance, we present two different ways to model the evolution of proliferating cell populations, healthy and cancer, under the control of anti-cancer drugs. In the first case, we use a McKendrick age-structured model of the cell cycle, whereas in the second case, we use a model of evolutionary dynamics, physiologically structured according to a continuous phenotype standing for drug resistance. In both cases, we mention how drug targets may be chosen so as to accurately represent the effects of cytotoxic and of cytostatic drugs, separately, and how one may consider the problem of optimisation of combined therapies.

  16. EVALUATING HABITAT AS A SURROGATE FOR POPULATION VIABILITY USING A SPATIALLY EXPLICIT POPULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-sho...

  17. PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON SEASONAL DYNAMICS IN A SUBTROPICAL ESTUARY: IMPORTANCE OF CYANOBACTERIA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Murrell, Michael C. and Emile M. Lores. 2004. Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Seasonal Dynamics in a Subtropical Estuary: Importance of Cyanobacteria. J. Plankton Res. 26(3):371-382. (ERL,GB 1190).

    A seasonal study of phytoplankton and zooplankton was conducted from 1999-20...

  18. Assessment of Zooplankton Size Fractionation for Monitoring Fry and Fingerling Culture Ponds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Methodology was formulated for use in the rapid assessment of zooplankton in channel catfish ponds. Understanding zooplankton prey size is useful for effective pond management. Size fractionation using differential sieve sizes was an effective means of separating size classes in live material, whe...

  19. SPATIAL PATTERNS IN ASSEMBLAGE STRUCTURES OF PELAGIC FORAGE FISH AND ZOOPLANKTON IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript reports on the spatial distribution of zooplankton and forage fish in western Lake Superior. Fish and zooplankton assemblages are shown to differ substantially in abundance and size structure both between the open lake and nearshore regions and between two differe...

  20. Effect of Main-stem Dams on Zooplankton Communities of the Missouri River (USA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We examined the distribution and abundance of zooplankton from 146 sites on the Missouri River and found large shifts in the dominance of major taxa between management zones of this regulated river. Crustacean zooplankton were dominant in the inter-reservoir zone of the river, an...

  1. a Three-Dimensional Acoustical Imaging System for Zooplankton Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGehee, Duncan Ewell

    This dissertation describes the design, testing, and use of a three-dimensional acoustical imaging system, called Fish TV, or FTV, for tracking zooplankton swimming in situ. There is an increasing recognition that three -dimensional tracks of individual plankters are needed for some studies in behavioral ecology including, for example, the role of individual behavior in patch formation and maintenance. Fish TV was developed in part to provide a means of examining zooplankton swimming behavior in a non-invasive way. The system works by forming a set of 64 acoustic beams in an 8 by 8 pattern, each beam 2 ^circ by 2^circ , for a total coverage of 16^circ by 16^circ. The 8 by 8 beams form two dimensions of the image; range provides the third dimension. The system described in the thesis produces three-dimensional images at the rate of approximately one per second. A set of laboratory and field experiments is described that demonstrates the capabilities of the system. The final field experiment was the in situ observation of zooplankton swimming behavior at a site in the San Diego Trough, 15 nautical miles southwest of San Diego. 314 plankters were tracked for one minute. It was observed that there was no connection between the acoustic size of the animals and their repertoire of swimming behaviors. Other contributions of the dissertation include the development of two novel methods for generating acoustic beams with low side lobes. The first is the method of dense random arrays. The second is the optimum mean square quantized aperture method. Both methods were developed originally as ways to "build a better beam pattern" for Fish TV, but also have general significance with respect to aperture theory.

  2. Cladoceran zooplankton abundance under clear and snow-covered ice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeBates, T.J.; Chipps, S.R.; Ward, M.C.; Werlin, K.B.; Lorenzen, P.B.

    2003-01-01

    We described the distribution of cladoceran zooplankton under the ice in a natural, glacial lake. Local light availability apparently altered the spatial distribution of cladocerans. Light levels measured under snow-covered areas (0.178 lux) were an order of magnitude less than those measured at the same depth under clear ice (1.750 lux). Cladoceran density under snow-covered areas was significantly higher (Bosmina spp.=3.34/L; Daphnia spp.=0.61/L) than cladoceran abundance under clear ice (Bosmina spp.=0.91/L; Daphnia spp.=0.19/L).

  3. Changing climate cues differentially alter zooplankton dormancy dynamics across latitudes.

    PubMed

    Jones, Natalie T; Gilbert, Benjamin

    2016-03-01

    In seasonal climates, dormancy is a common strategy that structures biodiversity and is necessary for the persistence of many species. Climate change will likely alter dormancy dynamics in zooplankton, the basis of aquatic food webs, by altering two important hatching cues: mean temperatures during the ice-free season, and mean day length when lakes become ice free. Theory suggests that these changes could alter diversity, hatchling abundances and phenology within lakes, and that these responses may diverge across latitudes due to differences in optimal hatching cues and strategies. To examine the role of temperature and day length on hatching dynamics, we collected sediment from 25 lakes across a 1800 km latitudinal gradient and exposed sediment samples to a factorial combination of two photoperiods (12 and 16 h) and two temperatures (8 and 12 °C) representative of historical southern (short photoperiod, warm) and northern (long photoperiod, cool) lake conditions. We tested whether sensitivity to these hatching cues varies by latitudinal origin and differs among taxa. Higher temperatures advanced phenology for all taxa, and these advances were greatest for cladocerans followed by copepods and rotifers. Although phenology differed among taxa, the effect of temperature did not vary with latitude. The latitudinal origin of the egg bank influenced egg abundance and hatchling abundance and diversity, with these latter effects varying with taxa, temperature and photoperiod. Copepod hatchling abundances peaked at mid-latitudes in the high temperature and long photoperiod treatments, whereas hatchling abundances of other zooplankton were greatest at low latitudes and high temperature. The overall diversity of crustacean zooplankton (copepods and cladocerans) also reflected distinct responses of each taxa to our treatments, with the greatest diversity occurring at mid-latitudes (~56 °N) in the shorter photoperiod treatment. Our results demonstrate that hatching cues

  4. Networks and Models with Heterogeneous Population Structure in Epidemiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kao, R. R.

    Heterogeneous population structure can have a profound effect on infectious disease dynamics, and is particularly important when investigating “tactical” disease control questions. At times, the nature of the network involved in the transmission of the pathogen (bacteria, virus, macro-parasite, etc.) appears to be clear; however, the nature of the network involved is dependent on the scale (e.g. within-host, between-host, or between-population), the nature of the contact, which ranges from the highly specific (e.g. sexual acts or needle sharing at the person-to-person level) to almost completely non-specific (e.g. aerosol transmission, often over long distances as can occur with the highly infectious livestock pathogen foot-and-mouth disease virus—FMDv—at the farm-to-farm level, e.g. Schley et al. in J. R. Soc. Interface 6:455-462, 2008), and the timescale of interest (e.g. at the scale of the individual, the typical infectious period of the host). Theoretical approaches to examining the implications of particular network structures on disease transmission have provided critical insight; however, a greater challenge is the integration of network approaches with data on real population structures. In this chapter, some concepts in disease modelling will be introduced, the relevance of selected network phenomena discussed, and then results from real data and their relationship to network analyses summarised. These include examinations of the patterns of air traffic and its relation to the spread of SARS in 2003 (Colizza et al. in BMC Med., 2007; Hufnagel et al. in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101:15124-15129, 2004), the use of the extensively documented Great Britain livestock movements network (Green et al. in J. Theor. Biol. 239:289-297, 2008; Robinson et al. in J. R. Soc. Interface 4:669-674, 2007; Vernon and Keeling in Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, Biol. Sci. 276:469-476, 2009) and the growing interest in combining contact structure data with phylogenetics to

  5. [Effects of environmental factors on β diversity of zooplankton community in thermal discharge seawaters near Guohua Power Plant in Xiangshan Bay, Zhejiang, China].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Yi-feng; Dai, Mei-xia; Zhou, Xiao-hong; Lin, Xia; Mao, Shuo-qian; Yan, Xiao-jun

    2015-08-01

    Zooplankton samples were seasonally collected at 10 stations in thermal discharge seawaters near Guohua Power Plant in Xiangshan Bay. The abundance data from these samples were pooled and further combined with field environmental factors, then generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) was used to explore the effects of environmental factors on β diversity of zooplankton community. The results showed that altogether 95 species of zooplankton belonging to 14 taxa were found. In these taxa, small zooplankton with 62.6% of abundance was the main taxa, while copepods dominated in adult groups, which abundance accounted for 35.3%. According to Whittaker's definition and additive partition, a diversity accounted for 36.3% and β diversity 63.7%. Environmental factors explained 43.8% of β diversity, and geographical distance between sampling sites had no effect on β diversity. However, there were still 19.9% of β diversity remained to be explained. After GDM fitting, there were nine environmental variables affecting zooplankton β diversity and explaining 68.8% of β diversity. The variables contributing to β diversity from high to low were seasonal water temperature, dissolved oxygen, seawater temperature increment, conductivity, suspended particulate matter, salinity, transparency, water depth and redox potential, respectively. Seasonal water temperature, dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature increment were the most important factors for driving β diversity changes, and accounted for 23.9%, 13.7% and 9.7% of absolute contribution to the interpretable portion of the β diversity, respectively. When seasonal water temperature, dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature increment were below 25 °C, greater than 5 mg · L(-1) and over 1 °C, respectively, β diversity rapidly increased with the increasing variable gradients. Furthermore, other predictors had little effect on β diversity. PMID:26685620

  6. New data and tools for integrating discrete and continuous population modeling strategies.

    PubMed

    Koopman, J S; Jacquez, G; Chick, S E

    2001-12-01

    Realistic population models have interactions between individuals. Such interactions cause populations to behave as systems with nonlinear dynamics. Much population data analysis is done using linear models assuming no interactions between individuals. Such analyses miss strong influences on population behavior and can lead to serious errors--especially for infectious diseases. To promote more effective population system analyses, we present a flexible and intuitive modeling framework for infection transmission systems. This framework will help population scientists gain insight into population dynamics, develop theory about population processes, better analyze and interpret population data, design more powerful and informative studies, and better inform policy decisions. Our framework uses a hierarchy of infection transmission system models. Four levels are presented here: deterministic compartmental models using ordinary differential equations (DE); stochastic compartmental (SC) models that relax assumptions about population size and include stochastic effects; individual event history models (IEH) that relax the SC compartmental structure assumptions by allowing each individual to be unique. IEH models also track each individual's history, and thus, allow the simulation of field studies. Finally, dynamic network (DNW) models relax the assumption of the previous models that contacts between individuals are instantaneous events that do not affect subsequent contacts. Eventually it should be possible to transit between these model forms at the click of a mouse. An example is presented dealing with Cryptosporidium. It illustrates how transiting model forms helps assess water contamination effects, evaluate control options, and design studies of infection transmission systems using nucleotide sequences of infectious agents. PMID:11797861

  7. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  8. Diel Vertical Dynamics of Gelatinous Zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora and Thaliacea) in a Subtropical Stratified Ecosystem (South Brazilian Bight).

    PubMed

    Nogueira Júnior, Miodeli; Brandini, Frederico Pereira; Codina, Juan Carlos Ugaz

    2015-01-01

    The diel vertical dynamics of gelatinous zooplankton in physically stratified conditions over the 100-m isobath (~110 km offshore) in the South Brazilian Bight (26°45'S; 47°33'W) and the relationship to hydrography and food availability were analyzed by sampling every six hours over two consecutive days. Zooplankton samples were taken in three depth strata, following the vertical structure of the water column, with cold waters between 17 and 13.1°C, influenced by the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the lower layer (>70 m); warm (>20°C) Tropical Water in the upper 40 m; and an intermediate thermocline with a deep chlorophyll-a maximum layer (0.3-0.6 mg m-3). Two distinct general patterns were observed, emphasizing the role of (i) physical and (ii) biological processes: (i) a strong influence of the vertical stratification, with most zooplankton absent or little abundant in the lower layer. The influence of the cold SACW on the bottom layer apparently restricted the vertical occupation of most species, which typically inhabit epipelagic warm waters. Even among migratory species, only a few (Aglaura hemistoma, Abylopsis tetragona eudoxids, Beroe sp., Thalia democratica, Salpa fusiformis) crossed the thermocline and reached the bottom layer. (ii) A general tendency of partial migrations, with variable intensity depending on the different species and developmental stages; populations tended to be more widely distributed through the water column during daylight, and to become more aggregated in the upper layer during the night, which can be explained based on the idea of the "hunger-satiation hypothesis", maximizing feeding and minimizing the chances of being predated. PMID:26637179

  9. Diel Vertical Dynamics of Gelatinous Zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora and Thaliacea) in a Subtropical Stratified Ecosystem (South Brazilian Bight)

    PubMed Central

    Nogueira Júnior, Miodeli; Brandini, Frederico Pereira; Codina, Juan Carlos Ugaz

    2015-01-01

    The diel vertical dynamics of gelatinous zooplankton in physically stratified conditions over the 100-m isobath (~110 km offshore) in the South Brazilian Bight (26°45’S; 47°33’W) and the relationship to hydrography and food availability were analyzed by sampling every six hours over two consecutive days. Zooplankton samples were taken in three depth strata, following the vertical structure of the water column, with cold waters between 17 and 13.1°C, influenced by the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the lower layer (>70 m); warm (>20°C) Tropical Water in the upper 40 m; and an intermediate thermocline with a deep chlorophyll-a maximum layer (0.3–0.6 mg m-3). Two distinct general patterns were observed, emphasizing the role of (i) physical and (ii) biological processes: (i) a strong influence of the vertical stratification, with most zooplankton absent or little abundant in the lower layer. The influence of the cold SACW on the bottom layer apparently restricted the vertical occupation of most species, which typically inhabit epipelagic warm waters. Even among migratory species, only a few (Aglaura hemistoma, Abylopsis tetragona eudoxids, Beroe sp., Thalia democratica, Salpa fusiformis) crossed the thermocline and reached the bottom layer. (ii) A general tendency of partial migrations, with variable intensity depending on the different species and developmental stages; populations tended to be more widely distributed through the water column during daylight, and to become more aggregated in the upper layer during the night, which can be explained based on the idea of the “hunger-satiation hypothesis”, maximizing feeding and minimizing the chances of being predated. PMID:26637179

  10. Secondary production of freshwater zooplankton communities exposed to a fungicide and to a petroleum distillate in outdoor pond mesocosms.

    PubMed

    Bayona, Yannick; Roucaute, Ana; Roucaute, Marc; Gorzerino, Caroline; Cailleaud, Kevin; Lagadic, Laurent; Bassères, Anne; Caquet, Thierry

    2014-04-01

    Ecological risk assessment of chemicals in mesocosms requires measurement of a large number of parameters at the community level. Studies on invertebrate communities usually focus on taxonomic approaches, which only provide insights into taxonomic structure changes induced by chemicals. In the present study, abundance, biomass (B), theoretical production (P), and instantaneous P/B ratio were used as endpoints to assess the effects of the commercial form of the dithiocarbamate fungicide thiram (35 µg/L and 170 µg/L nominal concentrations) and of the hydrocarbon water accommodated fraction (HWAF) of a petroleum distillate (0.01 mg/L, 0.4 mg/L, 2 mg/L, and 20 mg/L loadings) on the zooplankton community in freshwater pond mesocosms. Endpoints were measured during a 4-wk treatment period (1 pulse/wk) followed by a 5-mo posttreatment period to evaluate zooplankton population recovery. The chlorophyll a concentration in water was significantly increased after treatment with HWAF, whereas it was not affected by thiram treatment. Zooplankton abundance-based analysis showed effects on a limited number of taxa, whereas other endpoints (mainly the P/B ratio) revealed that more taxa were impacted, with recovery depending on the chemical and concentration. Exposure to HWAF mainly had a negative impact on cladocerans, which resulted in top-down effects (between cladocerans and phytoplankton). Thiram negatively affected rotifers and copepods, suggesting more direct toxic effects. The results show that the use of secondary production as an endpoint provides a more comprehensive assessment of potential direct and indirect effects of chemicals on a community, and they also support evidence of alteration in functional processes. PMID:24375909

  11. Reduced growth and survival of larval razorback sucker fed selenium-laden zooplankton

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamilton, S.J.; Buhl, K.J.; Bullard, F.A.; McDonald, S.F.

    2005-01-01

    Four groups of larval razorback sucker, an endangered fish, were exposed to selenium-laden zooplankton and survival, growth, and whole-body residues were measured. Studies were conducted with 5, 10, 24, and 28-day-old larvae fed zooplankton collected from six sites adjacent to the Green River, Utah. Water where zooplankton were collected had selenium concentrations ranging from <0.4 to 78 ??g/L, and concentrations in zooplankton ranged from 2.3 to 91 ??g/g dry weight. Static renewal tests were conducted for 20 to 25 days using reference water with selenium concentrations of <1.1 ??g/L. In all studies, 80-100% mortality occurred in 15-20 days. In the 28-day-old larvae, fish weight was significantly reduced 25% in larvae fed zooplankton containing 12 ??g/g selenium. Whole-body concentrations of selenium ranged from 3.7 to 14.3 ??g/g in fish fed zooplankton from the reference site (Sheppard Bottom pond 1) up to 94 ??g/g in fish fed zooplankton from North Roadside Pond. Limited information prior to the studies suggested that the Sheppard pond 1 site was relatively clean and suitable as a reference treatment; however, the nearly complete mortality of larvae and elevated concentrations of selenium in larvae and selenium and other elements in zooplankton indicated that this site was contaminated with selenium and other elements. Selenium concentrations in whole-body larvae and in zooplankton from all sites were close to or greater than toxic thresholds where adverse effects occur in fish. Delayed mortality occurred in larvae fed the two highest selenium concentrations in zooplankton and was thought due to an interaction with other elements. ?? 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Reduced growth and survival of larval razorback sucker fed selenium-laden zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Steven J; Buhl, Kevin J; Bullard, Fern A; McDonald, Susan F

    2005-06-01

    Four groups of larval razorback sucker, an endangered fish, were exposed to selenium-laden zooplankton and survival, growth, and whole-body residues were measured. Studies were conducted with 5, 10, 24, and 28-day-old larvae fed zooplankton collected from six sites adjacent to the Green River, Utah. Water where zooplankton were collected had selenium concentrations ranging from <0.4 to 78 microg/L, and concentrations in zooplankton ranged from 2.3 to 91 microg/g dry weight. Static renewal tests were conducted for 20 to 25 days using reference water with selenium concentrations of <1.1 microg/L. In all studies, 80-100% mortality occurred in 15-20 days. In the 28-day-old larvae, fish weight was significantly reduced 25% in larvae fed zooplankton containing 12 microg/g selenium. Whole-body concentrations of selenium ranged from 3.7 to 14.3 microg/g in fish fed zooplankton from the reference site (Sheppard Bottom pond 1) up to 94 microg/g in fish fed zooplankton from North Roadside Pond. Limited information prior to the studies suggested that the Sheppard pond 1 site was relatively clean and suitable as a reference treatment; however, the nearly complete mortality of larvae and elevated concentrations of selenium in larvae and selenium and other elements in zooplankton indicated that this site was contaminated with selenium and other elements. Selenium concentrations in whole-body larvae and in zooplankton from all sites were close to or greater than toxic thresholds where adverse effects occur in fish. Delayed mortality occurred in larvae fed the two highest selenium concentrations in zooplankton and was thought due to an interaction with other elements. PMID:15883091

  13. Zooplankton size selection relative to gill raker spacing in rainbow trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Budy, P.; Haddix, T.; Schneidervin, R.

    2005-01-01

    Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss are one of the most widely stocked salmonids worldwide, often based on the assumption that they will effectively utilize abundant invertebrate food resources. We evaluated the potential for feeding morphology to affect prey selection by rainbow trout using a combination of laboratory feeding experiments and field observations in Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Utah-Wyoming. For rainbow trout collected from the reservoir, inter-gill raker spacing averaged 1.09 mm and there was low variation among fish overall (SD = 0.28). Ninety-seven percent of all zooplankton observed in the diets of rainbow trout collected in the reservoir were larger than the interraker spacing, while only 29% of the zooplankton found in the environment were larger than the interraker spacing. Over the size range of rainbow trout evaluated here (200-475 mm), interraker spacing increased moderately with increasing fish length; however, the size of zooplankton found in the diet did not increase with increasing fish length. In laboratory experiments, rainbow trout consumed the largest zooplankton available; the mean size of zooplankton observed in the diets was significantly larger than the mean size of zooplankton available. Electivity indices for both laboratory and field observations indicated strong selection for larger-sized zooplankton. The size threshold at which electivity switched from selection against smaller-sized zooplankton to selection for larger-sized zooplankton closely corresponded to the mean interraker spacing for both groups (???1-1.2 mm). The combination of results observed here indicates that rainbow trout morphology limits the retention of different-sized zooplankton prey and reinforces the importance of understanding how effectively rainbow trout can utilize the type and sizes of different prey available in a given system. These considerations may improve our ability to predict the potential for growth and survival of rainbow trout within and

  14. Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackas, David L.; Batten, Sonia; Trudel, Marc

    2007-10-01

    The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how “similar” zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (∣ r∣ = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single “warm-and-low-productivity” vs. “cool-and-high-productivity” component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative (“cool” and “productive”) or near zero except positive in the El Niño years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and

  15. Modelling HIV in the injecting drug user population and the male homosexual population in a developed country context.

    PubMed

    Sutton, A J; House, T; Hope, V D; Ncube, F; Wiessing, L; Kretzschmar, M

    2012-03-01

    In many high income countries men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs) are the two groups with the highest HIV prevalence. Yet these two groups are not mutually exclusive, and those MSM who are also IDUs (MSM-IDUs) may be particularly vulnerable to HIV infection. This may be particularly relevant to the IDU population in countries, like the UK, with a much lower HIV prevalence amongst IDUs than MSM, as the MSM-IDUs could provide a route of HIV infection into the IDU population. In this research two alternative modelling approaches that describe the transmission dynamics of HIV within the IDU, MSM, and heterosexual populations are proposed. These models are constructed with two aims. The first is to investigate the possible impact of interventions that target HIV transmission in the MSM and IDU populations, and the second aim is to investigate the impact of the model structure on the model results. An examination of the assortativity of mixing between risk groups is also undertaken. The models are parameterised for England and Wales. While the MSM-IDU population is small, targeting MSM-IDUs was the most efficient intervention strategy in terms of cases averted per 100 individuals targeted with the intervention. Sensitivity analysis showed that variations in the assumed assortativity of mixing between the population groups in both models have a large impact on model results. This means that to generate quantitatively robust estimates for the impact of different intervention strategies it will be necessary to obtain estimates for assortativity values through empirical work. PMID:22325014

  16. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AT EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing, applying, and evaluating population-based exposure models to improve our understanding of the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants. Estimates of population variability are needed for E...

  17. Simulation model of Cryptomonas ovata population dynamics in southern Kootenay Lake, British Columbia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, James E.

    1978-01-01

    The model simulates well the timing and magnitude of all observed population changes and, more importantly, it gives insight into the important mechanisms which regulate population density of C. ovata in this natural system.

  18. Combined CFD/Population Balance Model for Gas Hydrate Particle Size Prediction in Turbulent Pipeline Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balakin, Boris V.; Hoffmann, Alex C.; Kosinski, Pawel; Istomin, Vladimir A.; Chuvilin, Evgeny M.

    2010-09-01

    A combined computational fluid dynamics/population balance model (CFD-PBM) is developed for gas hydrate particle size prediction in turbulent pipeline flow. The model is based on a one-moment population balance technique, which is coupled with flow field parameters computed using commercial CFD software. The model is calibrated with a five-moment, off-line population balance model and validated with experimental data produced in a low-pressure multiphase flow loop.

  19. Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

    PubMed Central

    Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

  20. Concentration of chemical elements by zooplankton of the White Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonova, G. A.; Bobrov, V. A.; Bogush, A. A.; Bychinskii, V. A.

    2013-02-01

    A technique of net sampling of zooplankton at night in the Kandalaksha and Dvinskii Bays and during the full tide in the Onezhskii Bay of the White Sea allowed us to obtain "clean" samples without considerable admixtures of terrigenous suspension. The absence of elements-indicators of the terrigenous suspension (Al, Ti, and Zr) in the EDX spectra allows concluding that the ash composition of the tested samples is defined by the constitutional elements comprising the organic matter and integument (chitin, shells) of planktonic organisms. A quantitative assessment of the accumulation of a large group of chemical elements (approximately 40) by zooplankton based on a complex of modern physical methods of analysis is presented. The values of the coefficient of the biological accumulation of the elements (Kb) calculated for the organic matter and the enrichment factors (EF) relative to the Clarke concentrations in the shale are in general determined by the mobility of the chemical elements in the aqueous solution, which is confirmed by the calculated chemical speciation of the elements in the inorganic subsystem of the surface waters of Onezhskii Bay.

  1. Diel vertical migration of Arctic zooplankton during the polar night

    PubMed Central

    Berge, Jørgen; Cottier, Finlo; Last, Kim S.; Varpe, Øystein; Leu, Eva; Søreide, Janne; Eiane, Ketil; Falk-Petersen, Stig; Willis, Kate; Nygård, Henrik; Vogedes, Daniel; Griffiths, Colin; Johnsen, Geir; Lorentzen, Dag; Brierley, Andrew S.

    2008-01-01

    High-latitude environments show extreme seasonal variation in physical and biological variables. The classic paradigm of Arctic marine ecosystems holds that most biological processes slow down or cease during the polar night. One key process that is generally assumed to cease during winter is diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton. DVM constitutes the largest synchronized movement of biomass on the planet, and is of paramount importance for marine ecosystem function and carbon cycling. Here we present acoustic data that demonstrate a synchronized DVM behaviour of zooplankton that continues throughout the Arctic winter, in both open and ice-covered waters. We argue that even during the polar night, DVM is regulated by diel variations in solar and lunar illumination, which are at intensities far below the threshold of human perception. We also demonstrate that winter DVM is stronger in open waters compared with ice-covered waters. This suggests that the biologically mediated vertical flux of carbon will increase if there is a continued retreat of the Arctic winter sea ice cover. PMID:18948249

  2. Zooplankton Feeding on the Nuisance Flagellate Gonyostomum semen

    PubMed Central

    Johansson, Karin S. L.; Vrede, Tobias; Lebret, Karen; Johnson, Richard K.

    2013-01-01

    The large bloom-forming flagellate Gonyostomum semen has been hypothesized to be inedible to naturally occurring zooplankton due to its large cell size and ejection of long slimy threads (trichocysts) induced by physical stimulation. In a grazing experiment using radiolabelled algae and zooplankton collected from lakes with recurring blooms of G. semen and lakes that rarely experience blooms, we found that Eudiaptomus gracilis and Holopedium gibberum fed on G. semen at high rates, whereas Daphnia cristata and Ceriodaphnia spp. did not. Grazing rates of E. gracilis were similar between bloom-lakes and lakes with low biomass of G. semen, indicating that the ability to feed on G. semen was not a result of local adaptation. The high grazing rates of two of the taxa in our experiment imply that some of the nutrients and energy taken up by G. semen can be transferred directly to higher trophic levels, although the predominance of small cladocerans during blooms may limit the importance of G. semen as a food resource. Based on grazing rates and previous observations on abundances of E. gracilis and H. gibberum, we conclude that there is a potential for grazer control of G. semen and discuss why blooms of G. semen still occur. PMID:23667489

  3. Simple graph models of information spread in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Voorhees, Burton; Ryder, Bergerud

    2015-01-01

    We consider several classes of simple graphs as potential models for information diffusion in a structured population. These include biases cycles, dual circular flows, partial bipartite graphs and what we call ‘single-link’ graphs. In addition to fixation probabilities, we study structure parameters for these graphs, including eigenvalues of the Laplacian, conductances, communicability and expected hitting times. In several cases, values of these parameters are related, most strongly so for partial bipartite graphs. A measure of directional bias in cycles and circular flows arises from the non-zero eigenvalues of the antisymmetric part of the Laplacian and another measure is found for cycles as the value of the transition probability for which hitting times going in either direction of the cycle are equal. A generalization of circular flow graphs is used to illustrate the possibility of tuning edge weights to match pre-specified values for graph parameters; in particular, we show that generalizations of circular flows can be tuned to have fixation probabilities equal to the Moran probability for a complete graph by tuning vertex temperature profiles. Finally, single-link graphs are introduced as an example of a graph involving a bottleneck in the connection between two components and these are compared to the partial bipartite graphs. PMID:26064661

  4. Disease spread models in wild and feral animal populations: application of artificial life models.

    PubMed

    Ward, M P; Laffan, S W; Highfield, L D

    2011-08-01

    The role that wild and feral animal populations might play in the incursion and spread of important transboundary animal diseases, such as foot and mouth disease (FMD), has received less attention than is warranted by the potential impacts. An artificial life model (Sirca) has been used to investigate this issue in studies based on spatially referenced data sets from southern Texas. An incursion of FMD in which either feral pig or deer populations were infected could result in between 698 and 1557 infected cattle and affect an area of between 166 km2 and 455 km2 after a 100-day period. Although outbreak size in deer populations can be predicted bythe size of the local deer population initially infected, the resulting outbreaks in feral pig populations are less predictable. Also, in the case of deer, the size of potential outbreaks might depend on the season when the incursion occurs. The impact of various mitigation strategies on disease spread has also been investigated. The approach used in the studies reviewed here explicitly incorporates the spatial distribution and relationships between animal populations, providing a new framework to explore potential impacts, costs, and control strategies. PMID:21961216

  5. Statistical Mechanics of Population --- The Lattice Lotka-Volterra Model ---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuda, H.; Ogita, N.; Sasaki, A.; Sato, K.

    1992-12-01

    To derive the consequence of heritable traits of individual organisms upon the feature of their populations, the lattice Lotka-Volterra model is studied which is defined as a Markov process of the state of the lattice space. A lattice site is either vacant or occupied by an individual of a certain type or species. Transition rates of the process are given in terms of parameters representing the traits of an individual such as intrinsic birth and death and migration rate of each type. Density is a variable defined as a probability that a site is occupied by a certain type. Under a given state of a site the conditional probability of its nearest neighbor site being occupied by a certain type is termed environs density of the site. Mutual exclusion of individuals is already taken into account by the basic assumption of the lattice model. Other interaction between individuals can be taken into account by assuming that the actual birth and death and migration rates are dependent on the environs densities. Extending the notion of ordinary Malthusian parameters, we define Malthusians as dynamical variables specifying the time development of the densities. Conditions for the positive stationary densities and for the evolutional stability (ES) against the invasion of mutant types is given in terms of Malthusians. Using the pair approximation (PA), a simplest decoupling approximation to take account of spatial correlation, we obtain analytical results for stationary densities, and critical parameters for ES in the case of two types. Assuming that the death rate is dependent on the environs density, we derive conditions for the evolution of altruism. Comparing with computer simulation, we discuss the validity of PA and its improvement.

  6. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  7. Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

    PubMed

    Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

    2012-12-01

    A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. PMID:23253367

  8. Modeling Grade IV Gas Emboli using a Limited Failure Population Model with Random Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Laura A.; Conkin, Johnny; Chhikara, Raj S.; Powell, Michael R.

    2002-01-01

    Venous gas emboli (VGE) (gas bubbles in venous blood) are associated with an increased risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in hypobaric environments. A high grade of VGE can be a precursor to serious DCS. In this paper, we model time to Grade IV VGE considering a subset of individuals assumed to be immune from experiencing VGE. Our data contain monitoring test results from subjects undergoing up to 13 denitrogenation test procedures prior to exposure to a hypobaric environment. The onset time of Grade IV VGE is recorded as contained within certain time intervals. We fit a parametric (lognormal) mixture survival model to the interval-and right-censored data to account for the possibility of a subset of "cured" individuals who are immune to the event. Our model contains random subject effects to account for correlations between repeated measurements on a single individual. Model assessments and cross-validation indicate that this limited failure population mixture model is an improvement over a model that does not account for the potential of a fraction of cured individuals. We also evaluated some alternative mixture models. Predictions from the best fitted mixture model indicate that the actual process is reasonably approximated by a limited failure population model.

  9. EVALUATION OF OPTICALLY ACQUIRED ZOOPLANKTON SIZE-SPECTRUM DATA AS A POTENTIAL TOOL FOR ASSESSMENT OF CONDITION IN THE GREAT LAKES

    EPA Science Inventory

    An optical zooplankton counter (OPC) potentially provides as assessment tool for zooplankton condition in ecosystems that is rapid, economical, and spatially extensive. We collected zooplankton data with an optical zooplankton counter in 20 near-shore regions of four of the Laure...

  10. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  11. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  12. Resolving discrepancies between deterministic population models and individual-based simulations.

    PubMed

    Wilson, W G

    1998-02-01

    This work ties together two distinct modeling frameworks for population dynamics: an individual-based simulation and a set of coupled integrodifferential equations involving population densities. The simulation model represents an idealized predator-prey system formulated at the scale of discrete individuals, explicitly incorporating their mutual interactions, whereas the population-level framework is a generalized version of reaction-diffusion models that incorporate population densities coupled to one another by interaction rates. Here I use various combinations of long-range dispersal for both the offspring and adult stages of both prey and predator species, providing a broad range of spatial and temporal dynamics, to compare and contrast the two model frameworks. Taking the individual-based modeling results as given, two examinations of the reaction-dispersal model are made: linear stability analysis of the deterministic equations and direct numerical solution of the model equations. I also modify the numerical solution in two ways to account for the stochastic nature of individual-based processes, which include independent, local perturbations in population density and a minimum population density within integration cells, below which the population is set to zero. These modifications introduce new parameters into the population-level model, which I adjust to reproduce the individual-based model results. The individual-based model is then modified to minimize the effects of stochasticity, producing a match of the predictions from the numerical integration of the population-level model without stochasticity. PMID:18811412

  13. Strong Spatial Influence on Colonization Rates in a Pioneer Zooplankton Metacommunity

    PubMed Central

    Frisch, Dagmar; Cottenie, Karl; Badosa, Anna; Green, Andy J.

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude of community-wide dispersal is central to metacommunity models, yet dispersal is notoriously difficult to quantify in passive and cryptic dispersers such as many freshwater invertebrates. By overcoming the problem of quantifying dispersal rates, colonization rates into new habitats can provide a useful estimate of the magnitude of effective dispersal. Here we study the influence of spatial and local processes on colonization rates into new ponds that indicate differential dispersal limitation of major zooplankton taxa, with important implications for metacommunity dynamics. We identify regional and local factors that affect zooplankton colonization rates and spatial patterns in a large-scale experimental system. Our study differs from others in the unique setup of the experimental pond area by which we were able to test spatial and environmental variables at a large spatial scale. We quantified colonization rates separately for the Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera from samples collected over a period of 21 months in 48 newly constructed temporary ponds of 0.18–2.95 ha distributed in a restored wetland area of 2,700 ha in Doñana National Park, Southern Spain. Species richness upon initial sampling of new ponds was about one third of that in reference ponds, although the rate of detection of new species from thereon were not significantly different, probably owing to high turnover in the dynamic, temporary reference ponds. Environmental heterogeneity had no detectable effect on colonization rates in new ponds. In contrast, connectivity, space (based on latitude and longitude) and surface area were key determinants of colonization rates for copepods and cladocerans. This suggests dispersal limitation in cladocerans and copepods, but not in rotifers, possibly due to differences in propagule size and abundance. PMID:22792241

  14. Is Ambient Light during the High Arctic Polar Night Sufficient to Act as a Visual Cue for Zooplankton?

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, Jonathan H.; Berge, Jørgen; Moline, Mark A.; Sørensen, Asgeir J.; Last, Kim; Falk-Petersen, Stig; Renaud, Paul E.; Leu, Eva S.; Grenvald, Julie; Cottier, Finlo; Cronin, Heather; Menze, Sebastian; Norgren, Petter; Varpe, Øystein; Daase, Malin; Darnis, Gerald; Johnsen, Geir

    2015-01-01

    The light regime is an ecologically important factor in pelagic habitats, influencing a range of biological processes. However, the availability and importance of light to these processes in high Arctic zooplankton communities during periods of 'complete' darkness (polar night) are poorly studied. Here we characterized the ambient light regime throughout the diel cycle during the high Arctic polar night, and ask whether visual systems of Arctic zooplankton can detect the low levels of irradiance available at this time. To this end, light measurements with a purpose-built irradiance sensor and coupled all-sky digital photographs were used to characterize diel skylight irradiance patterns over 24 hours at 79°N in January 2014 and 2015. Subsequent skylight spectral irradiance and in-water optical property measurements were used to model the underwater light field as a function of depth, which was then weighted by the electrophysiologically determined visual spectral sensitivity of a dominant high Arctic zooplankter, Thysanoessa inermis. Irradiance in air ranged between 1–1.5 x 10-5 μmol photons m-2 s-1 (400–700 nm) in clear weather conditions at noon and with the moon below the horizon, hence values reflect only solar illumination. Radiative transfer modelling generated underwater light fields with peak transmission at blue-green wavelengths, with a 465 nm transmission maximum in shallow water shifting to 485 nm with depth. To the eye of a zooplankter, light from the surface to 75 m exhibits a maximum at 485 nm, with longer wavelengths (>600 nm) being of little visual significance. Our data are the first quantitative characterisation, including absolute intensities, spectral composition and photoperiod of biologically relevant solar ambient light in the high Arctic during the polar night, and indicate that some species of Arctic zooplankton are able to detect and utilize ambient light down to 20–30m depth during the Arctic polar night. PMID:26039111

  15. Is Ambient Light during the High Arctic Polar Night Sufficient to Act as a Visual Cue for Zooplankton?

    PubMed

    Cohen, Jonathan H; Berge, Jørgen; Moline, Mark A; Sørensen, Asgeir J; Last, Kim; Falk-Petersen, Stig; Renaud, Paul E; Leu, Eva S; Grenvald, Julie; Cottier, Finlo; Cronin, Heather; Menze, Sebastian; Norgren, Petter; Varpe, Øystein; Daase, Malin; Darnis, Gerald; Johnsen, Geir

    2015-01-01

    The light regime is an ecologically important factor in pelagic habitats, influencing a range of biological processes. However, the availability and importance of light to these processes in high Arctic zooplankton communities during periods of 'complete' darkness (polar night) are poorly studied. Here we characterized the ambient light regime throughout the diel cycle during the high Arctic polar night, and ask whether visual systems of Arctic zooplankton can detect the low levels of irradiance available at this time. To this end, light measurements with a purpose-built irradiance sensor and coupled all-sky digital photographs were used to characterize diel skylight irradiance patterns over 24 hours at 79°N in January 2014 and 2015. Subsequent skylight spectral irradiance and in-water optical property measurements were used to model the underwater light field as a function of depth, which was then weighted by the electrophysiologically determined visual spectral sensitivity of a dominant high Arctic zooplankter, Thysanoessa inermis. Irradiance in air ranged between 1-1.5 x 10-5 μmol photons m-2 s-1 (400-700 nm) in clear weather conditions at noon and with the moon below the horizon, hence values reflect only solar illumination. Radiative transfer modelling generated underwater light fields with peak transmission at blue-green wavelengths, with a 465 nm transmission maximum in shallow water shifting to 485 nm with depth. To the eye of a zooplankter, light from the surface to 75 m exhibits a maximum at 485 nm, with longer wavelengths (>600 nm) being of little visual significance. Our data are the first quantitative characterisation, including absolute intensities, spectral composition and photoperiod of biologically relevant solar ambient light in the high Arctic during the polar night, and indicate that some species of Arctic zooplankton are able to detect and utilize ambient light down to 20-30m depth during the Arctic polar night. PMID:26039111

  16. Vertical distribution and diel patterns of zooplankton abundance and biomass at Conch Reef, Florida Keys (USA).

    PubMed

    Heidelberg, Karla B; O'Neil, Keri L; Bythell, John C; Sebens, Kenneth P

    2010-01-01

    Zooplankton play an important role in the trophic dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. Detailed vertical and temporal distribution and biomass of zooplankton were evaluated at four heights off the bottom and at six times throughout the diel cycle over a coral reef in the Florida Keys (USA). Zooplankton abundance averaged 4396 +/- 1949 SD individuals m(-3), but temporal and spatial distributions varied for individual zooplankton taxa by time of day and by height off the bottom. Copepods comprised 93-96% of the abundance in the samples. Taxon-based zooplankton CHN values paired with abundance data were used to estimate biomass. Average daily biomass ranged from 3.1 to 21.4 mg C m(-3) and differed by both height off the bottom and by time of day. While copepods were the numerically dominant organisms, their contribution to biomass was only 35% of the total zooplankton biomass. Our findings provide important support for the new emerging paradigm of how zooplankton are distributed over reefs. PMID:20046854

  17. Vertical distribution and diel patterns of zooplankton abundance and biomass at Conch Reef, Florida Keys (USA)

    PubMed Central

    Heidelberg, Karla B.; O'Neil, Keri L.; Bythell, John C.; Sebens, Kenneth P.

    2010-01-01

    Zooplankton play an important role in the trophic dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. Detailed vertical and temporal distribution and biomass of zooplankton were evaluated at four heights off the bottom and at six times throughout the diel cycle over a coral reef in the Florida Keys (USA). Zooplankton abundance averaged 4396 ± 1949 SD individuals m−3, but temporal and spatial distributions varied for individual zooplankton taxa by time of day and by height off the bottom. Copepods comprised 93–96% of the abundance in the samples. Taxon-based zooplankton CHN values paired with abundance data were used to estimate biomass. Average daily biomass ranged from 3.1 to 21.4 mg C m−3 and differed by both height off the bottom and by time of day. While copepods were the numerically dominant organisms, their contribution to biomass was only 35% of the total zooplankton biomass. Our findings provide important support for the new emerging paradigm of how zooplankton are distributed over reefs. PMID:20046854

  18. Zooplankton community analysis in the Changjiang River estuary by single-gene-targeted metagenomics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Fangping; Wang, Minxiao; Li, Chaolun; Sun, Song

    2014-07-01

    DNA barcoding provides accurate identification of zooplankton species through all life stages. Single-gene-targeted metagenomic analysis based on DNA barcode databases can facilitate longterm monitoring of zooplankton communities. With the help of the available zooplankton databases, the zooplankton community of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary was studied using a single-gene-targeted metagenomic method to estimate the species richness of this community. A total of 856 mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) gene sequences were determined. The environmental barcodes were clustered into 70 molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs). Forty-two MOTUs matched barcoded marine organisms with more than 90% similarity and were assigned to either the species (similarity>96%) or genus level (similarity<96%). Sibling species could also be distinguished. Many species that were overlooked by morphological methods were identified by molecular methods, especially gelatinous zooplankton and merozooplankton that were likely sampled at different life history phases. Zooplankton community structures differed significantly among all of the samples. The MOTU spatial distributions were influenced by the ecological habits of the corresponding species. In conclusion, single-gene-targeted metagenomic analysis is a useful tool for zooplankton studies, with which specimens from all life history stages can be identified quickly and effectively with a comprehensive database.

  19. Eutrophication and warming effects on long-term variation of zooplankton in Lake Biwa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsieh, C. H.; Sakai, Y.; Ban, S.; Ishikawa, K.; Ishikawa, T.; Ichise, S.; Yamamura, N.; Kumagai, M.

    2011-01-01

    We compiled and analyzed long-term (1961-2005) zooplankton community data in response to environmental variations in Lake Biwa. Environmental data indicate that Lake Biwa had experienced eutrophication (according to total phosphorus concentration) in the late 1960s and recovered to a normal trophic status around 1985, and then exhibited warming since 1990. Total zooplankton abundance showed a significant correlation with total phytoplankton biomass. Following a classic pattern, cladoceran/calanoid and cyclopoid/calanoid abundance ratio was related positively to eutrophication. Zooplankton community exhibited a significant response to the boom and bust of phytoplankton biomass as a consequence of eutrophication-reoligotriphication and warming. Moreover, our analyses suggest that the Lake Biwa ecosystem exhibited a hierarchical response across trophic levels; that is, higher trophic levels may show a more delayed response or no response to eutrophication than lower ones. We tested the hypothesis that phytoplankton community can better explain the variation of zooplankton community than bulk environmental variables, considering that phytoplankton community may directly affects zooplankton succession through predator-prey interactions. Using a variance partition approach, however, we did not find strong evidence to support this hypothesis. We further aggregate zooplankton according to their feeding types (herbivorous, carnivorous, omnivorous, and parasitic) and taxonomic groups, and analyzed the aggregated data. While the pattern remains similar, the results are less clear comparing with the results based on finely resolved data. Our research explored the efficacy of using zooplankton as bio-indicators to environmental changes at various data resolutions.

  20. A one-population Amari model with periodic microstructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svanstedt, Nils; Wyller, John; Malyutina, Elena

    2014-06-01

    We review the derivation of the homogenized one-population Amari equation by means of the two-scale convergence technique of Nguetseng in the case of periodic microvariation in the connectivity function. A key point in this derivation is Visintin's theorem for two-scale convergence of convolution integrals. We construct single bump solutions of the resulting homogenized equation using a pinning function technique for the case where the solutions are independent of the local variable and the firing rate function is modelled as a unit step function. The parameter measuring the degree of heterogeneity plays the role of a control parameter. The connectivity functions are periodically modulated in both the synaptic footprint and in the spatial scale. A framework for analysing the stability of these structures is formulated. This framework is based on spectral theory for Hilbert-Schmidt integral operators and it deforms to the standard Evans function approach for the translational invariant case in the limit of no heterogeneity. The upper and lower bounds of the growth/decay rates of the perturbations imposed on the bump states can be expressed in terms of the operator norm of the actual Hilbert-Schmidt operator. Intervals for which the pinning function is increasing correspond to unstable bumps, while complementary intervals where the pinning function decreases correspond to stable bumps, just as in the translational invariant case. Examples showing the properties of the bumps are discussed in detail when the connectivity kernels are given in terms of an exponential decaying function, a wizard hat function and a damped oscillating function.

  1. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  2. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  3. Stable carbon isotopes of zooplankton lipid components as a tool to differentiate between pelagic and ice algae as a food source for zooplankton in the Arctic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bendle, J. A.; Moossen, H.; Jamieson, R.; Wold, A.; Falk-Peterson, S.

    2009-12-01

    Every summer in the Arctic, the ice cover melts and releases sea-ice algae into the surrounding waters. How important are these algae, consisting mostly of diatoms, as a major food source for zooplankton and higher trophic levels? The answer to this question is timely, given predictions for the loss of summer sea ice cover this century. We are investigating the use of compound specific carbon isotopes as a tool to differentiate between lipids found in zooplankton which feed on diatoms living in the open ocean and zooplankton which feed on diatoms derived from the ice. To this effect we analyse the carbon isotopic signature of the major fatty acids and alcohols and that of the major sterols collected during the Arctic ICE CHASER expedition aboard the RRV James Clark Ross in 2008. Twenty three zooplankton samples comprised of 11 different species were collected in four different depth intervals at three different sites around Svalbard. The sites had variable ice cover, from open water to solid ice. We analysed the lipid composition of the zooplankton samples with special emphasis on the fatty acids and fatty alcohols bound as esters. Esters are produced by zooplankton to function as an energy reservoir. Initial results such as the occurrence of Brassicasterol, 24 methylencholest 5 en-3β-ol and Desmosterol, high amounts of the C20:5ω3 fatty acid and high C16:1ω7/C16:0-fatty acid ratios suggest that diatoms are an important part of the zooplankton diet.

  4. Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holms, A. G.

    1974-01-01

    Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are reported. Simulated experiments were generated by adding pseudo random normally distributed errors to population values to generate observations. Model equations were fitted to the observations and the decision procedure was used to delete terms. Comparison of values predicted by the reduced models with the true population values enabled the identification of deletion strategies that are approximately optimal for minimizing prediction errors.

  5. Distribution of zooplankton on the continental shelf off Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula, during Austral Fall and Winter, 2001

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashjian, Carin J.; Rosenwaks, Gaelin A.; Wiebe, Peter H.; Davis, Cabell S.; Gallager, Scott M.; Copley, Nancy J.; Lawson, Gareth L.; Alatalo, Philip

    2004-08-01

    The Marguerite Bay region of the Western Antarctic Peninsula is known to support a large population of krill during the summer and is hypothesized to be a site of successful overwintering of krill. The distributions of zooplankton biomass, abundance, and taxonomic composition at six locations on or near the continental shelf at Marguerite Bay were determined for fall and winter, 2001, as a part of the Southern Ocean GLOBEC program. Water column zooplankton were sampled using a 1-m 2 MOCNESS. Samples were analyzed for taxonomic composition, size, and estimated biomass using silhouette analysis. Characteristics of four categories (small and large copepods, small and large krill) were described in detail. Total biomass and abundance were markedly reduced in winter relative to fall. The vertical distributions of total abundance and biomass, and of taxonomic composition, were associated with the hydrographic structure of the water column. Larger larval krill were observed at all locations during winter than during fall. Krill were relatively unimportant to total biomass and abundance at most locations, while copepods frequently dominated both biomass and abundance. In fall, greatest abundance and biomass of larval krill were observed on the continental shelf in association with a persistent clockwise gyre located to the west of Adelaide Island. During winter, much lower abundances of larval krill were present in the water column throughout the study region. High abundance and biomass of juvenile and adult krill were observed only in Laubeuf Fjord (Marguerite Bay) during fall.

  6. Spatial and temporal variability of zooplankton off New Caledonia (Southwestern Pacific) from acoustics and net measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smeti, Houssem; Pagano, Marc; Menkes, Christophe; Lebourges-Dhaussy, Anne; Hunt, Brian P. V.; Allain, Valerie; Rodier, Martine; de Boissieu, Florian; Kestenare, Elodie; Sammari, Cherif

    2015-04-01

    Spatial and temporal distribution of zooplankton off New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea was studied during two multidisciplinary cruises in 2011, during the cool and the hot seasons. Acoustic measurements of zooplankton were made using a shipborne acoustic Doppler current profiler (S-ADCP), a scientific echosounder and a Tracor acoustic profiling system (TAPS). Relative backscatter from ADCP was converted to biomass estimates using zooplankton weights from net-samples collected during the cruises. Zooplankton biomass was estimated using four methods: weighing, digital imaging (ZooScan), ADCP and TAPS. Significant correlations were found between the different biomass estimators and between the backscatters of the ADCP and the echosounder. There was a consistent diel pattern in ADCP derived biomass and echosounder backscatter resulting from the diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton. Higher DVM amplitudes were associated with higher abundance of small zooplankton and cold waters to the south of the study area, while lower DVM amplitudes in the north were associated with warmer waters and higher abundance of large organisms. Zooplankton was largely dominated by copepods (71-73%) among which calanoids prevailed (40-42%), with Paracalanus spp. as the dominant species (16-17%). Overall, zooplankton exhibited low abundance and biomass (mean night dry biomass of 4.7 ± 2.2 mg m3 during the cool season and 2.4 ± 0.4 mg m3 during the hot season) but high richness and diversity (Shannon index ˜4). Substantially enhanced biomass and abundance appeared to be episodically associated with mesoscale features contributing to shape a rather patchy zooplankton distribution.

  7. Stable Isotope and Signature Fatty Acid Analyses Suggest Reef Manta Rays Feed on Demersal Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Couturier, Lydie I. E.; Rohner, Christoph A.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Marshall, Andrea D.; Jaine, Fabrice R. A.; Bennett, Michael B.; Townsend, Kathy A.; Weeks, Scarla J.; Nichols, Peter D.

    2013-01-01

    Assessing the trophic role and interaction of an animal is key to understanding its general ecology and dynamics. Conventional techniques used to elucidate diet, such as stomach content analysis, are not suitable for large threatened marine species. Non-lethal sampling combined with biochemical methods provides a practical alternative for investigating the feeding ecology of these species. Stable isotope and signature fatty acid analyses of muscle tissue were used for the first time to examine assimilated diet of the reef manta ray Manta alfredi, and were compared with different zooplankton functional groups (i.e. near-surface zooplankton collected during manta ray feeding events and non-feeding periods, epipelagic zooplankton, demersal zooplankton and several different zooplankton taxa). Stable isotope δ15N values confirmed that the reef manta ray is a secondary consumer. This species had relatively high levels of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) indicating a flagellate-based food source in the diet, which likely reflects feeding on DHA-rich near-surface and epipelagic zooplankton. However, high levels of ω6 polyunsaturated fatty acids and slightly enriched δ13C values in reef manta ray tissue suggest that they do not feed solely on pelagic zooplankton, but rather obtain part of their diet from another origin. The closest match was with demersal zooplankton, suggesting it is an important component of the reef manta ray diet. The ability to feed on demersal zooplankton is likely linked to the horizontal and vertical movement patterns of this giant planktivore. These new insights into the habitat use and feeding ecology of the reef manta ray will assist in the effective evaluation of its conservation needs. PMID:24167562

  8. Trophic ecology and vertical patterns of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in zooplankton from oxygen minimum zone regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Rebecca L.; Wakeham, Stuart; McKinney, Rick; Wishner, Karen F.

    2014-08-01

    The unique physical and biogeochemical characteristics of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) influence plankton ecology, including zooplankton trophic webs. Using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes, this study examined zooplankton trophic webs in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP) OMZ. δ13C values were used to indicate zooplankton food sources, and δ15N values were used to indicate zooplankton trophic position and nitrogen cycle pathways. Vertically stratified MOCNESS net tows collected zooplankton from 0 to 1000 m at two stations along a north-south transect in the ETNP during 2007 and 2008, the Tehuantepec Bowl and the Costa Rica Dome. Zooplankton samples were separated into four size fractions for stable isotope analyses. Particulate organic matter (POM), assumed to represent a primary food source for zooplankton, was collected with McLane large volume in situ pumps. The isotopic composition and trophic ecology of the ETNP zooplankton community had distinct spatial and vertical patterns influenced by OMZ structure. The most pronounced vertical isotope gradients occurred near the upper and lower OMZ oxyclines. Material with lower δ13C values was apparently produced in the upper oxycline, possibly by chemoautotrophic microbes, and was subsequently consumed by zooplankton. Between-station differences in δ15N values suggested that different nitrogen cycle processes were dominant at the two locations, which influenced the isotopic characteristics of the zooplankton community. A strong depth gradient in zooplankton δ15N values in the lower oxycline suggested an increase in trophic cycling just below the core of the OMZ. Shallow POM (0-110 m) was likely the most important food source for mixed layer, upper oxycline, and OMZ core zooplankton, while deep POM was an important food source for most lower oxycline zooplankton (except for samples dominated by the seasonally migrating copepod Eucalanus inermis). There was no consistent isotopic progression among the four

  9. Modeling Agassiz's Desert Tortoise Population Response to Anthropogenic Stressors

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mojave Desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations are exposed to a variety of anthropogenic threats, which vary in nature, severity, and frequency. Tortoise management in conservation areas can be compromised when the relative importance of these threats is not well underst...

  10. Models and strategies for value clarification in population education.

    PubMed

    Villanueva, C L

    1976-01-01

    Teachers, principals, supervisiors, superintendents, policymakers, and researchers all agree that value clarification is the most effective method for teaching value-laden population issues. It has been recognized that cultural attitudes and beliefs that are negative to family planning block acceptance of the population program. Education can become an effective vehicle in raising the level of awareness and acceptance of population practices. Teachers and students must 1st critically examine a set of alternative population values, for then they can weigh the pros and cons in order to arrive at value decisions regarding fertility behavior. Discussion and recommendations for practice and policy are presented for 9 problem areas: defining value clarification, affective versus cognitive process, teacher participation, open-ended versus closed-ended approach, use of resources and devices, target group, teacher personality, selecting appropriate issues, and dealing with controversial subjects. PMID:12336126

  11. Using Spreadsheets To Model Population Growth, Competition and Predation in Nature.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Ashley J. R.

    1999-01-01

    Describes how to place mathematical equations modeling population growth into a spreadsheet that performs calculations quickly and easily. Suggests experiments that can be performed with the spreadsheets. (WRM)

  12. Gaining insight in the interaction of zinc and population density with a combined dynamic energy budget and population model.

    PubMed

    Klok, Chris

    2008-12-01

    Laboratory tests are typically conducted under optimal conditions testing the single effect of a toxicant In the field, due to suboptimal conditions, density dependence can both diminish and enhance effects of toxicants on populations. A review of the literature indicated that general insight on interaction of density and toxicants is lacking, and therefore no predictions on their combined action can be made. In this paper the influence of zinc was tested at different population densities on the demographic rates: growth, reproduction, and survival in the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus. Changes in these rates were extrapolated with a combined Dynamic energy budget (DEB) and a population model to assess consequences at the population level. Inference from the DEB model indicated that density decreased the assimilation of food whereas zinc increased the maintenance costs. The combined effects of density and zinc resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic rate of population increase which suddenly dropped to zero at combinations of zinc and density where development is so strongly retarded that individuals do not mature. This already happened at zinc levels where zinc induced mortality is low and therefore density enhances zinc effects and density dependent compensation is not expected. PMID:19192801

  13. Zooplankton community structure of the lower Xingu River (PA) related to the hydrological cycle.

    PubMed

    Matsumura-Tundisi, T; Tundisi, J G; Souza-Soares, F; Tundisi, J E M

    2015-08-01

    The zooplankton community of the lower Xingu River shows strong fluctuations in species richness and number of organisms during periods of water level fluctuation. Pulses of density and species richness are adapted to the pulses in water flows and water level. This is conected with reproductive strategies of some zooplankton groups. The spatial heterogeneity of the lower Xingu River consisting of braided channels, bedrocks, macrophyte stands, is probably a relevant factor for the species richness of the zooplankton communities, and may be a fundamental factor for the overall aquatic biodiversity of the lower Xingu River. PMID:26691075

  14. Assessment of concentration, bioaccumulation and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in zooplankton of Chabahar Bay.

    PubMed

    Ziyaadini, Morteza; Mehdinia, Ali; Khaleghi, Leila; Nassiri, Mahmoud

    2016-06-15

    The amounts and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) in the zooplankton community of Chabahar Bay were investigated. The highest amounts of total PAHs (tPAHs) in the water and zooplankton samples were 62.2ngL(-1) and 1478.6ngg(-1) dry weights, in near the Shahid Beheshti Port and desalination, respectively. The greatest amount of BAF (51,780) was obtained in the entry of Bay, and it was related to the phenanthrene accumulation. Using molecular ratio, the results showed that the major input source of PAH compounds in zooplankton of Chabahar Bay was pyrolytic (fuel) source. PMID:26944700

  15. Evaluation of a system to automatically sample zooplankton from the discharge of dams

    SciTech Connect

    Rosen, R.A.

    1982-02-01

    Automatic plankton samplers installed at two dams on the Connecticut River continuously monitored crustacean zooplankton from October 1977 through 1979 and allowed a significant reduction in man-hours involved in an extensive sampling program. Automatic samplers efficiently sampled most species and size classes of crustacean zooplankton in a similar, but not consistently identical manner as a commonly used towed-net plankton sampler. The smallest sized zooplankton were captured more efficiently than the largest. Mesh selection and sampler avoidance exerted different influences on automatic samplers and towed nets. Future use of the samplers and direct comparison of results to results obtained by other methods was supported.

  16. Phytoplankton Composition and Abundance in Restored Maltański Reservoir under the Influence of Physico-Chemical Variables and Zooplankton Grazing Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Kozak, Anna; Gołdyn, Ryszard; Dondajewska, Renata

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present the effects of environmental factors and zooplankton food pressure on phytoplankton in the restored man-made Maltański Reservoir (MR). Two methods of restoration: biomanipulation and phosphorus inactivation have been applied in the reservoir. Nine taxonomical groups of phytoplankton represented in total by 183 taxa were stated there. The richest groups in respect of taxa number were green algae, cyanobacteria and diatoms. The diatoms, cryptophytes, chrysophytes, cyanobacteria, green algae and euglenophytes dominated in terms of abundance and/or biomass. There were significant changes among environmental parameters resulting from restoration measures which influenced the phytoplankton populations in the reservoir. These measures led to a decrease of phosphorus concentration due to its chemical inactivation and enhanced zooplankton grazing as a result of planktivorous fish stocking. The aim of the study is to analyse the reaction of phytoplankton to the restoration measures and, most importantly, to determine the extent to which the qualitative and quantitative composition of phytoplankton depends on variables changing under the influence of restoration in comparison with other environmental variables. We stated that application of restoration methods did cause significant changes in phytoplankton community structure. The abundance of most phytoplankton taxa was negatively correlated with large zooplankton filter feeders, and positively with zooplankton predators and concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and partly of phosphates. However, restoration was insufficient in the case of decreasing phytoplankton abundance. The effects of restoration treatments were of less importance for the abundance of phytoplankton than parameters that were independent of the restoration. This was due to the continuous inflow of large loads of nutrients from the area of the river catchment. PMID:25906352

  17. Phytoplankton Composition and Abundance in Restored Maltański Reservoir under the Influence of Physico-Chemical Variables and Zooplankton Grazing Pressure.

    PubMed

    Kozak, Anna; Gołdyn, Ryszard; Dondajewska, Renata

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present the effects of environmental factors and zooplankton food pressure on phytoplankton in the restored man-made Maltański Reservoir (MR). Two methods of restoration: biomanipulation and phosphorus inactivation have been applied in the reservoir. Nine taxonomical groups of phytoplankton represented in total by 183 taxa were stated there. The richest groups in respect of taxa number were green algae, cyanobacteria and diatoms. The diatoms, cryptophytes, chrysophytes, cyanobacteria, green algae and euglenophytes dominated in terms of abundance and/or biomass. There were significant changes among environmental parameters resulting from restoration measures which influenced the phytoplankton populations in the reservoir. These measures led to a decrease of phosphorus concentration due to its chemical inactivation and enhanced zooplankton grazing as a result of planktivorous fish stocking. The aim of the study is to analyse the reaction of phytoplankton to the restoration measures and, most importantly, to determine the extent to which the qualitative and quantitative composition of phytoplankton depends on variables changing under the influence of restoration in comparison with other environmental variables. We stated that application of restoration methods did cause significant changes in phytoplankton community structure. The abundance of most phytoplankton taxa was negatively correlated with large zooplankton filter feeders, and positively with zooplankton predators and concentrations of ammonium nitrogen and partly of phosphates. However, restoration was insufficient in the case of decreasing phytoplankton abundance. The effects of restoration treatments were of less importance for the abundance of phytoplankton than parameters that were independent of the restoration. This was due to the continuous inflow of large loads of nutrients from the area of the river catchment. PMID:25906352

  18. An empirical model for estimating annual consumption by freshwater fish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liao, H.; Pierce, C.L.; Larscheid, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    Population consumption is an important process linking predator populations to their prey resources. Simple tools are needed to enable fisheries managers to estimate population consumption. We assembled 74 individual estimates of annual consumption by freshwater fish populations and their mean annual population size, 41 of which also included estimates of mean annual biomass. The data set included 14 freshwater fish species from 10 different bodies of water. From this data set we developed two simple linear regression models predicting annual population consumption. Log-transformed population size explained 94% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. Log-transformed biomass explained 98% of the variation in log-transformed annual population consumption. We quantified the accuracy of our regressions and three alternative consumption models as the mean percent difference from observed (bioenergetics-derived) estimates in a test data set. Predictions from our population-size regression matched observed consumption estimates poorly (mean percent difference = 222%). Predictions from our biomass regression matched observed consumption reasonably well (mean percent difference = 24%). The biomass regression was superior to an alternative model, similar in complexity, and comparable to two alternative models that were more complex and difficult to apply. Our biomass regression model, log10(consumption) = 0.5442 + 0.9962??log10(biomass), will be a useful tool for fishery managers, enabling them to make reasonably accurate annual population consumption predictions from mean annual biomass estimates. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  19. [Gypsy moth Lymantria dispar L. in the South Urals: Patterns in population dynamics and modelling].

    PubMed

    Soukhovolsky, V G; Ponomarev, V I; Sokolov, G I; Tarasova, O V; Krasnoperova, P A

    2015-01-01

    The analysis is conducted on population dynamics of gypsy moth from different habitats of the South Urals. The pattern of cyclic changes in population density is examined, the assessment of temporal conjugation in time series of gypsy moth population dynamics from separate habitats of the South Urals is carried out, the relationships between population density and weather conditions are studied. Based on the results obtained, a statistical model of gypsy moth population dynamics in the South Urals is designed, and estimations are given of regulatory and modifying factors effects on the population dynamics. PMID:26201216

  20. Instantaneous threat escape and differentiated refuge demand among zooplankton taxa.

    PubMed

    Hansson, Lars-Anders; Bianco, Giuseppe; Ekvall, Mikael; Heuschele, Jan; Hylander, Samuel; Yang, Xi

    2016-02-01

    Most animals, including aquatic crustacean zooplankton, perform strong avoidance movements when exposed to a threat, such as ultraviolet radiation (UVR). We here show that the genera Daphnia and Bosmina instantly adjust their vertical position in the water in accordance with the present UVR threat, i.e., seek refuge in deeper waters, whereas other taxa show less response to the threat. Moreover, Daphnia repeatedly respond to UVR pulses, suggesting that they spend more energy on movement than more stationary taxa, for example, during days with fluctuating cloud cover, illustrating nonlethal effects in avoiding UVR threat. Accordingly, we also show that the taxa with the most contrasting behavioral responses differ considerably in photoprotection, suggesting different morphological and behavioral strategies in handling the UVR threat. In a broader context, our studies on individual and taxa specific responses to UVR provide insights into observed spatial and temporal distribution in natural ecosystems. PMID:27145603

  1. Computer simulation models as tools for identifying research needs: A black duck population model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ringelman, J.K.; Longcore, J.R.

    1980-01-01

    Existing data on the mortality and production rates of the black duck (Anas rubripes) were used to construct a WATFIV computer simulation model. The yearly cycle was divided into 8 phases: hunting, wintering, reproductive, molt, post-molt, and juvenile dispersal mortality, and production from original and renesting attempts. The program computes population changes for sex and age classes during each phase. After completion of a standard simulation run with all variable default values in effect, a sensitivity analysis was conducted by changing each of 50 input variables, 1 at a time, to assess the responsiveness of the model to changes in each variable. Thirteen variables resulted in a substantial change in population level. Adult mortality factors were important during hunting and wintering phases. All production and mortality associated with original nesting attempts were sensitive, as was juvenile dispersal mortality. By identifying those factors which invoke the greatest population change, and providing an indication of the accuracy required in estimating these factors, the model helps to identify those variables which would be most profitable topics for future research.

  2. A comparison of carbon-specific respiration rates in gelatinous and non-gelatinous zooplankton: A search for general rules in zooplankton metabolism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, G.

    1992-12-01

    Using 470 data from the literature the dry weight-specific respiration rates of gelatinous zooplankton (cnidarians, ctenophores and salps) and non-gelatinous zooplankton (mainly crustacea) were converted to carbon-specific values. The resulting carbon-specific respiration rates showed no significant differences between the two groups of zooplankton, indicating similar oxygen requirements per gram of carbon biomass. From this finding, it can be suggested that the differences in the rates of oxygen consumption measured in the two types of zooplankton in the sea can be explained by the carbon biomass ratio between gelatinous and non-gelatinous zooplankton. Furthermore, the low rate of metabolism of gelatinous species compared with that of non-gelatinous animals of the same volume can be attributed predominantly to the relatively low organic matter content in the former. It is recommended that all weight-specific metabolism rates be expressed using carbon as body mass unit (e.g. mg O2 gC-1 d-1) which enables more accurate comparisons between individuals exhibiting different dry weight/carbon ratios.

  3. Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

    2010-09-01

    Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

  4. Two populations and models of gamma ray bursts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Katz, J. I.

    1993-01-01

    Gamma-ray burst statistics are best explained by a source population at cosmological distances, while spectroscopy and intensity histories of some individual bursts imply an origin on Galactic neutron stars. To resolve this inconsistency I suggest the presence of two populations, one at cosmological distances and the other Galactic. I build on ideas of Shemi and Piran (1990) and of Rees and Mesozaros (1992) involving the interaction of fireball debris with surrounding clouds to explain the observed intensity histories in bursts at cosmological distances. The distances to the Galactic population are undetermined because they are too few to affect the statistics of intensity and direction; I explain them as resulting from magnetic reconnection in neutron star magnetospheres. An appendix describes the late evolution of the debris as a relativistic blast wave.

  5. Population Uncertainty in Model Ecosystem: Analysis by Stochastic Differential Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morita, Satoru; Tainaka, Kei-ichi; Nagata, Hiroyasu; Yoshimura, Jin

    2008-09-01

    Perturbation experiments are carried out by the numerical simulations of a contact process and its mean-field version. Here, the mortality rate increases or decreases suddenly. It is known that fluctuation enhancement (FE) occurs after perturbation, where FE indicates population uncertainty. In the present paper, we develop a new theory of stochastic differential equation. The agreement between the theory and the mean-field simulation is almost perfect. This theory enables us to find a much stronger FE than that reported previously. We discuss the population uncertainty in the recovering process of endangered species.

  6. A model of the trapped electron population for solar minimum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Teague, M. J.; Vette, J. I.

    1974-01-01

    A model is presented of the trapped electron environment of solar minimum conditions. Solar maximum models have been presented for the inner radiation zone (AE-5 1967), and for the outer radiation zone (AE-4 1967). The present solar minimum model consists of an inner zone model (AE-5 1975 Projected) with an epoch of 1975, and an outer zone model with an epoch of 1964. With only minor modifications this latter model is identical to the AE-4 1964 model presented previous. The model, however, has not previously been issued in computer form. AE-4 1964 is based upon satellite data, while the inner zone solar minimum model AE-5 1975 Projected consists entirely of extrapolations from AE-5 1967. While the two components of the solar minimum model have epochs 11 years part, it is assumed that any differences between the successive solar minima are smaller than the model error, and the complete model is associated with an epoch of 1975.

  7. Dynamics and recovery of a sediment-exposed Chironomus riparius population: A modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Diepens, Noël J; Beltman, Wim H J; Koelmans, Albert A; Van den Brink, Paul J; Baveco, Johannes M

    2016-06-01

    Models can be used to assess long-term risks of sediment-bound contaminants at the population level. However, these models usually lack the coupling between chemical fate in the sediment, toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic processes in individuals and propagation of individual-level effects to the population. We developed a population model that includes all these processes, and used it to assess the importance of chemical uptake routes on a Chironomus riparius population after pulsed exposure to the pesticide chlorpyrifos. We show that particle ingestion is an important additional exposure pathway affecting C. riparius population dynamics and recovery. Models ignoring particle ingestion underestimate the impact and the required recovery times, which implies that they underestimate risks of sediment-bound chemicals. Additional scenario studies showed the importance of selecting the biologically relevant sediment layer and showed population effects in the long term. PMID:27031571

  8. Zooplankton size and distribution within mesoscale structures in the Mozambique Channel: A comparative approach using the TAPS acoustic profiler, a multiple net sampler and ZooScan image analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebourges-Dhaussy, A.; Huggett, J.; Ockhuis, S.; Roudaut, G.; Josse, E.; Verheye, H.

    2014-02-01

    Two surveys were conducted in the Mozambique Channel in November 2009 and April/May 2010 to study the influence of mesoscale eddies on the zooplanktonic component of the ecosystem. Three complementary methods were used to sample zooplankton: (1) hydro-acoustics with a TAPS™ multi-frequency zooplankton profiler; (2) in situ biological sampling using a Multinet with samples processed via the classical settled biovolume technique; (3) ZooScan image analysis which determines biovolume, size and taxonomic composition. This approach presented an ideal opportunity to compare the results of these different methods which highlighted a large overlap in their detectable size range. Each method favoured a particular size fraction of the population, i.e. TAPS for the microzooplankton (<0.1 mm ESR) and the Multinet and ZooScan for larger sizes (>3 mm ESR). In the case of the 2009 cruise, a well-established cyclone-anticyclone dipole was sampled, with results clearly indicating a higher concentration of zooplankton in the cyclonic eddy compared to the anticyclonic counterpart. The TAPS also detected high surface (0-22 m) concentrations of what appeared to be microzooplankton or marine snow in the cyclone. In 2010, the eddy field was less defined and more spatially variable compared to that in 2009. Two cyclonic and anticyclonic features were sampled during the cruise, each with different life histories and levels of stability. Results were inconsistent compared to those of 2009 and dependent on the size component of the population, with both cyclonic and anticyclonic features capable of having higher planktonic biomass. Differences in species composition between these mesoscale features were not too different and mainly a matter of relative biovolume. Less well formed eddy fields, particularly in the mid-Mozambique Channel, therefore appear to result in indistinct vertical and horizontal zooplankton distribution patterns.

  9. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This task will address EPA's need to better understand the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants for the purpose of assessing what populations are at risk for adverse health outcomes due to air pollutant exposures. To improve our understanding of exposures to air po...

  10. CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

  11. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure

    PubMed Central

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M.; Engelhardt, Barbara E.

    2015-01-01

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  12. Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure.

    PubMed

    Mimno, David; Blei, David M; Engelhardt, Barbara E

    2015-06-30

    Admixture models are a ubiquitous approach to capture latent population structure in genetic samples. Despite the widespread application of admixture models, little thought has been devoted to the quality of the model fit or the accuracy of the estimates of parameters of interest for a particular study. Here we develop methods for validating admixture models based on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a Bayesian method for assessing the quality of fit of a statistical model to a specific dataset. We develop PPCs for five population-level statistics of interest: within-population genetic variation, background linkage disequilibrium, number of ancestral populations, between-population genetic variation, and the downstream use of admixture parameters to correct for population structure in association studies. Using PPCs, we evaluate the quality of the admixture model fit to four qualitatively different population genetic datasets: the population reference sample (POPRES) European individuals, the HapMap phase 3 individuals, continental Indians, and African American individuals. We found that the same model fitted to different genomic studies resulted in highly study-specific results when evaluated using PPCs, illustrating the utility of PPCs for model-based analyses in large genomic studies. PMID:26071445

  13. Eco-Evo PVAs: Incorporating Eco-Evolutionary Processes into Population Viability Models

    EPA Science Inventory

    We synthesize how advances in computational methods and population genomics can be combined within an Ecological-Evolutionary (Eco-Evo) PVA model. Eco-Evo PVA models are powerful new tools for understanding the influence of evolutionary processes on plant and animal population pe...

  14. THE INFLUENCE OF MODEL TIME STEP ON THE RELATIVE SENSITIVIY OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE TO REPRODUCTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In recent years there has been an increasing interest in using population models in environmental assessments. Matrix population models represent a valuable tool for extrapolating from life stage-specific stressor effects on survival and reproduction to effects on finite populati...

  15. A PROBABILISTIC POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PM10 AND PM 2.5

    EPA Science Inventory

    A first generation probabilistic population exposure model for Particulate Matter (PM), specifically for predicting PM10, and PM2.5, exposures of an urban, population has been developed. This model is intended to be used to predict exposure (magnitude, frequency, and duration) ...

  16. Dissolved and fecal pellet carbon and nitrogen release by zooplankton in tropical waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Small, Lawrence F.; Fowler, Scott W.; Moore, Stanley A.; LaRosa, Jacques

    1983-12-01

    Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) release by tropical zooplankton (mostly copepods) and micronekton (euphausiids, pelagic red crabs, and salps) was investigated near VERTEX particle traps at 18°N, 108°W (in 1981) and 15°40'N, 107°30'W (in 1982). The objective was to assess the significance of fecal pellet release relative to respiratory and dissolved excretory release of C and N and relative to primary production in the same waters. For small (< 300 μm) and large (300 to 500 μm) zooplankton, 38 to 49% more ammonium-nitrogen was excreted than C was respired, relative to body concentrations of N and C, respectively. However, for the same zooplankton, 40 to 54% less fecal N was egested than fecal C, again relative to body C and N contents. This apparent compensation yielded a relatively constant body C:N ratio, and, because of the relatively low ratio of respiratory C to excretory N, implied a protein-based metabolism. The same compensatory relationships were found for euphausiids and red crabs, except the percentages of C and N losses were lower than for the zooplankton. No such compensatory relationship was found for the salps, using respiratory—excretory data from the literature and our own observations of fecal pellet production. Either the literature data were not applicable to our salps, or the salps had a more lipid-based metabolism. Reasonably balanced C and N loss budgets were computed for the small and large zooplankton. Daily fecal pellet C egestion represented only 2 to 3% of both large and small zooplankton body C content, and daily fecal pellet N egestion was <2% of zooplankton body N. Likewise, daily fecal pellet production by small and large zooplankton together accounted for <2% of the daily primary C and N production in the top 100 m of water; that is, 'new' primary production would have had to replace losses of <2% per day to balance fecal pellet losses from large and small zooplankton, presuming all fecal pellets sank below 100 m without being

  17. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more

  18. The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

    2005-01-01

    1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

  19. A Stochastic Model for the Interbreeding of Two Populations Continuously Sharing the Same Habitat.

    PubMed

    Serva, Maurizio

    2015-12-01

    We propose and solve a stochastic mathematical model of general applicability to interbreeding populations which share the same habitat. Resources are limited so that the total population size is fixed by environmental factors. Interbreeding occurs during all the time of coexistence until one of the two population disappears by a random fluctuation. None of the two populations has a selective advantage. We answer the following questions: How long the two populations coexist and how genetically similar they become before the extinction of one of the two? how much the genetic makeup of the surviving population changes by the contribution of the disappearing one? what it is the number of interbreeding events given the observed introgression of genetic material? The model was originally motivated by a paleoanthropological problem concerning the interbreeding of Neanderthals and African modern humans in Middle East which is responsible for the fraction of Neanderthal genes (1-4%) in present Eurasian population. PMID:26585747

  20. Z-type control of populations for Lotka-Volterra model with exponential convergence.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yunong; Yan, Xiaogang; Liao, Bolin; Zhang, Yinyan; Ding, Yaqiong

    2016-02-01

    The population control of the Lotka-Volterra model is one of the most important and widely investigated issues in mathematical ecology. In this study, assuming that birth rate is controllable and using the Z-type dynamic method, we develop Z-type control laws to drive the prey population and/or predator population to a desired state to keep species away from extinction and to improve ecosystem stability. A direct controller group is initially designed to control the prey and predator populations simultaneously. Two indirect controllers are then proposed for prey population control and predator population control by exerting exogenous measure on another species. All three control laws possess exponential convergence performances. Finally, the corresponding numerical simulations are performed. Results substantiate the theoretical analysis and effectiveness of such Z-type control laws for the population control of the Lotka-Volterra model. PMID:26644036

  1. Indicator Properties of Baltic Zooplankton for Classification of Environmental Status within Marine Strategy Framework Directive

    PubMed Central

    Lehtiniemi, Maiju; Postel, Lutz; Rubene, Gunta; Amid, Callis; Lesutiene, Jurate; Uusitalo, Laura; Strake, Solvita; Demereckiene, Natalja

    2016-01-01

    The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the EU Member States to estimate the level of anthropogenic impacts on their marine systems using 11 Descriptors. Assessing food web response to altered habitats is addressed by Descriptor 4 and its indicators, which are being developed for regional seas. However, the development of simple foodweb indicators able to assess the health of ecologically diverse, spatially variable and complex interactions is challenging. Zooplankton is a key element in marine foodwebs and thus comprise an important part of overall ecosystem health. Here, we review work on zooplankton indicator development using long-term data sets across the Baltic Sea and report the main findings. A suite of zooplankton community metrics were evaluated as putative ecological indicators that track community state in relation to Good Environmental Status (GES) criteria with regard to eutrophication and fish feeding conditions in the Baltic Sea. On the basis of an operational definition of GES, we propose mean body mass of zooplankton in the community in combination with zooplankton stock measured as either abundance or biomass to be applicable as an integrated indicator that could be used within the Descriptor 4 in the Baltic Sea. These metrics performed best in predicting zooplankton being in-GES when considering all datasets evaluated. However, some other metrics, such as copepod biomass, the contribution of copepods to the total zooplankton biomass or biomass-based Cladocera: Copepoda ratio, were equally reliable or even superior in certain basin-specific assessments. Our evaluation suggests that in several basins of the Baltic Sea, zooplankton communities currently appear to be out-of-GES, being comprised by smaller zooplankters and having lower total abundance or biomass compared to the communities during the reference conditions; however, the changes in the taxonomic structure underlying these trends vary widely across the sea basins due to

  2. Indicator Properties of Baltic Zooplankton for Classification of Environmental Status within Marine Strategy Framework Directive.

    PubMed

    Gorokhova, Elena; Lehtiniemi, Maiju; Postel, Lutz; Rubene, Gunta; Amid, Callis; Lesutiene, Jurate; Uusitalo, Laura; Strake, Solvita; Demereckiene, Natalja

    2016-01-01

    The European Marine Strategy Framework Directive requires the EU Member States to estimate the level of anthropogenic impacts on their marine systems using 11 Descriptors. Assessing food web response to altered habitats is addressed by Descriptor 4 and its indicators, which are being developed for regional seas. However, the development of simple foodweb indicators able to assess the health of ecologically diverse, spatially variable and complex interactions is challenging. Zooplankton is a key element in marine foodwebs and thus comprise an important part of overall ecosystem health. Here, we review work on zooplankton indicator development using long-term data sets across the Baltic Sea and report the main findings. A suite of zooplankton community metrics were evaluated as putative ecological indicators that track community state in relation to Good Environmental Status (GES) criteria with regard to eutrophication and fish feeding conditions in the Baltic Sea. On the basis of an operational definition of GES, we propose mean body mass of zooplankton in the community in combination with zooplankton stock measured as either abundance or biomass to be applicable as an integrated indicator that could be used within the Descriptor 4 in the Baltic Sea. These metrics performed best in predicting zooplankton being in-GES when considering all datasets evaluated. However, some other metrics, such as copepod biomass, the contribution of copepods to the total zooplankton biomass or biomass-based Cladocera: Copepoda ratio, were equally reliable or even superior in certain basin-specific assessments. Our evaluation suggests that in several basins of the Baltic Sea, zooplankton communities currently appear to be out-of-GES, being comprised by smaller zooplankters and having lower total abundance or biomass compared to the communities during the reference conditions; however, the changes in the taxonomic structure underlying these trends vary widely across the sea basins due to

  3. An individual-based model for population viability analysis of humpback chub in Grand Canyon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pine, William Pine, III; Healy, Brian; Smith, Emily Omana; Trammell, Melissa; Speas, Dave; Valdez, Rich; Yard, Mike; Walters, Carl; Ahrens, Rob; Vanhaverbeke, Randy; Stone, Dennis; Wilson, Wade

    2013-01-01

    We developed an individual-based population viability analysis model (females only) for evaluating risk to populations from catastrophic events or conservation and research actions. This model tracks attributes (size, weight, viability, etc.) for individual fish through time and then compiles this information to assess the extinction risk of the population across large numbers of simulation trials. Using a case history for the Little Colorado River population of Humpback Chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon, Arizona, we assessed extinction risk and resiliency to a catastrophic event for this population and then assessed a series of conservation actions related to removing specific numbers of Humpback Chub at different sizes for conservation purposes, such as translocating individuals to establish other spawning populations or hatchery refuge development. Our results suggested that the Little Colorado River population is generally resilient to a single catastrophic event and also to removals of larvae and juveniles for conservation purposes, including translocations to establish new populations. Our results also suggested that translocation success is dependent on similar survival rates in receiving and donor streams and low emigration rates from recipient streams. In addition, translocating either large numbers of larvae or small numbers of large juveniles has generally an equal likelihood of successful population establishment at similar extinction risk levels to the Little Colorado River donor population. Our model created a transparent platform to consider extinction risk to populations from catastrophe or conservation actions and should prove useful to managers assessing these risks for endangered species such as Humpback Chub.

  4. A toy model for hostility between two populations in dependency on their internal frustration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wieder, Thomas

    2014-10-01

    Hostility between two populations n and m is described in terms of a first-order differential equation system for the population sizes n(t) and m(t) over time t. Each population is subdivided into two subpopulations 'Doves' and 'Hawks'. Hawks represent the strategy aggression against the other population. The number of hawks which actually exert aggression depends on the overall frustration within their population. Conversely, aggression causes the conversion from doves to hawks in the attacked population. Thus, a system of flows among the subpopulation is established. The actual behaviour of n(t) and m(t) over time t depends on the coefficients chosen for the differential system and in particular on the temporal development of the frustration parameters. No calculation or simulation of actual population sizes is intended. The only goal of the paper is to establish a model which describes an never ending conflict between both populations caused by internal frustrations.

  5. An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

    PubMed

    Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. PMID:25891765

  6. Modelling of integral spectra of galaxies by the method of population synthesis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zenina, O. A.

    A detailed description of a population synthesis method for modelling the content of stellar populations in complex systems, galaxies and star clusters, from their integral spectra is given. As the original database for modelling, two banks of reference observational stellar spectra, of Pickles and Jacoby, have been selected. The method allows to define the following physical characteristics of a stellar system: detailed composition of a stellar population, average metallicity of the system and metallicities of populations it comprises, age of the last star formation in the system and contribution of young stellar component to the light flux, turn-off point of the main sequence, mass-to-luminosity ratio of the apparent stellar component of the galaxy. Using a population synthesis package of programs "SYNTHES" calculations have been performed for two normal galaxies, NGC 205 and NGC 628. Further possibilities and prospects of the proposed technique for population modelling are discussed.

  7. MULTIPLE STRESSOR EFFECTS OF HERBICIDE, PH, AND FOOD ON WETLAND ZOOPLANKTON AND A LARVAL AMPHIBIAN

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Celia Y.; Hathaway, Kevin M.; Thompson, Dean G.; Folt, Carol L.

    2011-01-01

    Interactions of herbicides and natural environmental stressors such as pH and food availability are poorly understood. We tested a chemical formulation of triclopyr (Release®) at environmentally relevant test concentrations (0.25 and 0.50 mg/L) in combination with two levels of pH (pH 5.5 and 7.5), and two levels of food availability (high and low). Population level effects of each stressor alone and in combination with the others were investigated using Simocephalus vetulus, a zooplankton species, and Rana pipiens tadpoles (Gosner stage 25), both comm