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Sample records for zooplankton population model

  1. Environmental toxicology: population modeling of cod larvae shows high sensitivity to loss of zooplankton prey.

    PubMed

    Stige, Leif Christian; Ottersen, Geir; Hjermann, Dag ; Dalpadado, Padmini; Jensen, Louise K; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2011-02-01

    Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies. PMID:21194716

  2. Lake acidification: Effects on crustacean zooplankton populations

    SciTech Connect

    Havens, K.E. ); Yan, N.D. ); Keller, W. )

    1993-08-01

    The ranked acid sensitivities of six common crustacean zooplankton taxa were determined from a multilake field survey in Ontario and from laboratory bioassays. The two approaches gave the same ranking (from most to least sensitive): Daphnia galeata mendotae, Daphnia retrocurva, and Skistodiaptomus oregonensis > Diaphanosoma birgei > Mesocyclops edax > Bosmina longirostris. This finding suggests that acidification has caused the widespread damage which has been documented for the zooplankton of Ontario and northeastern US lakes. 24 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. Interactions between predation and resources shape zooplankton population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Nicolle, Alice; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Brodersen, Jakob; Nilsson, P Anders; Brnmark, Christer

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the relative importance of predation and resources in population dynamics has a long tradition in ecology, while interactions between them have been studied less intensively. In order to disentangle the effects of predation by juvenile fish, algal resource availability and their interactive effects on zooplankton population dynamics, we conducted an enclosure experiment where zooplankton were exposed to a gradient of predation of roach (Rutilus rutilus) at different algal concentrations. We show that zooplankton populations collapse under high predation pressure irrespective of resource availability, confirming that juvenile fish are able to severely reduce zooplankton prey when occurring in high densities. At lower predation pressure, however, the effect of predation depended on algal resource availability since high algal resource supply buffered against predation. Hence, we suggest that interactions between mass-hatching of fish, and the strong fluctuations in algal resources in spring have the potential to regulate zooplankton population dynamics. In a broader perspective, increasing spring temperatures due to global warming will most likely affect the timing of these processes and have consequences for the spring and summer zooplankton dynamics. PMID:21304980

  4. Zooplankton population dynamics in experimentally toxified pond ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Sierszen, M.E.; Boston, H.L.; Horn, M.J.

    1989-01-01

    To evaluate ecosystem response to and recovery from toxic contamination, we added phenolic compounds to a series of experimental ponds. Toxicants were added repeatedly in a temporally staggered sequence to evaluate the influence of seasonal factors and previous exposure history on the responses to toxicant stress. We hypothesized that seasonal changes in ecosystem structure, e.g. shifts in the relative importance of ''top-down'' and ''bottom-up'' controls on energy flow, would influence the system-level responses to the toxicant. Information from these experiments is being incorporated into models that predict ecological risk and system-level behavior under toxicant stress. Here we focus on the responses of zooplankton populations to toxicants, and factors which may affect the apparent severity of toxic effects. 9 refs., 4 figs.

  5. Roles of predation, food, and temperature in structuring the epilimnetic zooplankton populations in Lake Ontario, 1981-1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johannsson, Ora E.; O'Gorman, Robert

    1991-01-01

    We sampled phytoplankton, zooplankton, and alewives Alosa pseudoharengus and measured water temperature in Lake Ontario during 1981-1986. Through the use of general linear regression models we then sought evidence of control of the eplimnetic zooplankton community (mid-July to mid-October) by producers, consumers, and temperature. Our measures of the zooplankton community were total biomass, cladoceran biomass, and the ratio of large to small Daphnia spp. (D. galeata mendotae and D. retrocurva). Zooplankton population variables assessed were abundance, egg ratio, and productivity. Through factor analysis, factors were created from the standardized, transformed independent variables for use in the regression analyses. Regression models showed significant inverse relationships (P < 0.05) between alewives and Bosmina longirostris (abundance, production, and egg ratio), Ceriodaphnia lacustris (egg ratio), and Daphnia retrocurva (egg ratio). Bosmina longirostris and D. retrocurva egg ratios were inversely related to algae biomass (<20 I?m), thus the smaller algae might be controlled in part by the zooplankton community. Production of C. lacustris was directly related to temperature, as was the production and abundance of Tropocyclops prasinus. The annual size-frequency distributions of B. longirostris and D. retrocurva were inversely related to yearling alewife abundance and directly related to adult alewife abundance, which suggested that yearlings use a particulate-feeding mode on these zooplankton species more frequently than adults. We found no significant negative correlations among the zooplankton species, which suggested that interzooplankton predation and competition were not as important in structuring the community as were planktivory and temperature.

  6. Evaluation of abiotic stresses of temperate estuaries by using resident zooplankton: A community vs. population approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, Sourav; Wooldridge, Tris; Perissinotto, Renzo

    2016-03-01

    By using permanently resident zooplankton, we assessed the ecological level (i.e. community and or population) that provides more in-depth indication of the stress related to salinity and temperature fluctuations in temperate estuaries. In the semi-arid warm temperate South Africa, the Gamtoos estuary experiences a full salinity gradient maintained by irregular but relatively frequent freshwater pulses, whereas the Kromme estuary is euhaline throughout its extent and receives only occasional freshwater inputs when the storage reservoir six km upstream overtops. Changes in the species evenness index of Pielou and the abundances of estuarine resident zooplankton species were modelled against salinity and temperature variations of respective estuaries. In the Gamtoos estuary, response of individual populations provided more in-depth information regarding zooplankton variability. However the most abundant resident zooplankton i.e. Acartia longipatella a copepod was not the best predictor of the salinity and temperature fluctuations. Conversely, the Kromme estuary study provided insights into the potential vulnerability of the resident estuarine zooplankton community to cold. Further, the population level study exposed responses of specific species against salinity changes. We discuss the pros and cons of designing ecological indicators of abiotic stress based on specific species, targeted to specific ecological level, and needs of considering the frequency and magnitude of fresh water inflow in an estuary. A suggestion is to use specific taxonomic group(s) (e.g. Copepods) to better understand the abiotic stress factors of specific set of estuaries (e.g. freshwater rich/starved) until a 'one size fits all' indicator is found for temperate estuaries.

  7. Effects of alewife predation on zooplankton populations in Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wells, LaRue

    1970-01-01

    The zooplankton populations in southeastern Lake Michigan underwent striking, size-related changes between 1954 and 1966. Forms that decline sharply were the largest cladocerans (Leptodora kindtii, Daphnia galeata, and D. retrocurva), the largest calanoid copepods (Limnocalanus macrurus, Epischura lacustris, and Diaptomus sicilis), and the largest cyclopoid copepod (Mesocyclops edax). Two of these, D. galeata and M. edax (both abundant in 1954), became extremely rare. Certain medium-sized or small species increased in numbers: Daphnia longiremis, Holopedium gibberum, Polyphemus pediculus, Bosmina longirostris, Bosmina coregoni, Ceriodaphnia sp., Cyclops bicuspidatus, Cyclops vernalis, and Diaptomus ashlandi. Evidence is strong that the changes were due to selective predation by alewives. The alewife was uncommon in southeastern Lake Michigan in 1954 but had increased to enormous proportions by 1966; there was a massive dieoff in spring 1967, and abundance remained relatively low in 1968. The composition of zooplankton populations in 1968 generally had shifted back toward that of 1954, although D. galeata and M. edax remained rare. The average size, and size at onset of maturity, of D. retrocurva decreased noticeably between 1954 and 1966 but increased between 1966 and 1968.

  8. Distribution and abundance of zooplankton populations in Crater Lake, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Larson, G.L.; McIntire, C.D.; Buktenica, M.W.; Girdner, S.F.; Truitt, R.E.

    2007-01-01

    The zooplankton assemblages in Crater Lake exhibited consistency in species richness and general taxonomic composition, but varied in density and biomass during the period between 1988 and 2000. Collectively, the assemblages included 2 cladoceran taxa and 10 rotifer taxa (excluding rare taxa). Vertical habitat partitioning of the water column to a depth of 200 m was observed for most species with similar food habits and/or feeding mechanisms. No congeneric replacement was observed. The dominant species in the assemblages were variable, switching primarily between periods of dominance of Polyarthra-Keratella cochlearis and Daphnia. The unexpected occurrence and dominance of Asplanchna in 1991 and 1992 resulted in a major change in this typical temporal shift between Polyarthra-K. cochlearis and Daphnia. Following a collapse of the zooplankton biomass in 1993 that was probably caused by predation from Asplanchna, Kellicottia dominated the zooplankton assemblage biomass between 1994 and 1997. The decline in biomass of Kellicottia by 1998 coincided with a dramatic increase in Daphnia biomass. When Daphnia biomass declined by 2000, Keratella biomass increased again. Thus, by 1998 the assemblage returned to the typical shift between Keratella-Polyarthra and Daphnia. Although these observations provided considerable insight about the interannual variability of the zooplankton assemblages in Crater Lake, little was discovered about mechanisms behind the variability. When abundant, kokanee salmon may have played an important role in the disappearance of Daphnia in 1990 and 2000 either through predation, inducing diapause, or both. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  9. RESPONSE OF PREDATORY ZOOPLANKTON POPULATIONS TO THE EXPERIMENTAL ACIDIFICATION OF LITTLE ROCK LAKE, WI

    EPA Science Inventory

    To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, we monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of there levels: pH 5.6, 5.2, and 4.7). oncentrations...

  10. Potential Importance of Fish Predation and Zooplankton Grazing on Natural Populations of Freshwater Bacteria

    PubMed Central

    Riemann, Bo

    1985-01-01

    The rates of ingestion of natural bacterial assemblages by natural populations of zooplankton (>50 ?m in size) were measured during a 19-day period in eutrophic Frederiksborg Slotss, Denmark, as well as in experimental enclosures (containing 5.3 m3 of lake water). The fish and nutrients of the enclosures were manipulated. In enclosures without fish, large increases in ingestion by zooplankton >140 ?m in size were found (up to 3 ?g of C liter?1 h?1), compared with values less than 0.3 ?g of C liter?1 h?1 in the enclosures with fish and in the open lake. Daphnia cucullata and D. galeata dominated the community of zooplankton of >140 ?m. Ingestion rates for zooplankton between 50 and 140 ?m decreased after a period of about 8 days, in all enclosures and in the lake, to values below 0.1 ?g of C liter?1 h?1. On the last 2 sampling days, somewhat higher values were observed in the enclosures with fish present. The >50-?m zooplankton ingested 48 to 51% of the bacterial net secondary production in enclosures without fish, compared to 4% in the enclosures with added fish. Considering the sum of bacterial secondary production plus biomass change, 35 to 41% of the available bacteria were ingested by zooplankton of >50 ?m in the enclosures without fish, compared with 4 to 6% in the enclosures with added fish and 21% in the open lake. Fish predation reduced the occurrence of zookplankton sized >50 ?m and thus left a large proportion of the available bacteria to zooplankton sized <50 ?m. In fact, there were 4.6 103 to 5.0 103 flagellates (4 to 8 ?m in size) ml?1 in the enclosures with fish added as well as in the lake, compared with 0.5 102 to 2.3 102 ml?1 in the enclosures without fish. This link in the food chain was reduced when fish predation on zooplankton was eliminated and a direct route of dissolved organic matter, via the bacteria to the zooplankton, was established. PMID:16346844

  11. New view of population genetics of zooplankton: RAD-seq analysis reveals population structure of the North Atlantic planktonic copepod Centropages typicus.

    PubMed

    Blanco-Bercial, L; Bucklin, A

    2016-04-01

    Detection of population genetic structure of zooplankton at medium-to-small spatial scales in the absence of physical barriers has remained challenging and controversial. The large population sizes and high rates of gene flow characteristic of zooplankton have made resolution of geographical differentiation very difficult, especially when using few genetic markers and assuming equilibrium conditions. Next-generation sequencing now allows simultaneous sampling of hundreds to thousands of genetic markers; new analytical approaches allow studies under nonequilibrium conditions and directional migration. Samples of the North Atlantic Ocean planktonic copepod, Centropages typicus, were analysed using restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing on a PROTON platform. Although prior studies revealed no genetic differentiation of populations across the geographical range of the species, analysis of RAD tags showed significant structure across the North Atlantic Ocean. We also compared the likelihood for models of connectivity among NW Atlantic populations under various directional flow scenarios that replicate oceanographic conditions of the sampled domain. High-density marker sampling with RAD sequencing markedly outperformed other technical and analytical approaches in detection of population genetic structure and characterization of connectivity of this high geneflow zooplankton species. PMID:26857348

  12. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton, I. Diaptomus pallidus Herrick

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.; Angino, E.E.

    1973-01-01

    The simultaneous and lag relationships between 27 environmental variables and seven population components of a perennial calanoid copepod were examined by simple and partial correlations and stepwise regression. The analyses consistently explained more than 70% of the variation of a population component. The multiple correlation coefficient (R) usually was highest in no lag or in 3-week or 4-week lag except for clutch size in which R was highest in 1-week lag. Population control, egg-bearing, and clutch size were affected primarily by environmental components categorized as weather; food apparently was relatively minor in affecting population control or reproduction. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk B.V. Publishers.

  13. Gelatinous zooplankton in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the adjacent Schelde estuary: Spatio-temporal distribution patterns and population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vansteenbrugge, Lies; Van Regenmortel, Tina; De Troch, Marleen; Vincx, Magda; Hostens, Kris

    2015-03-01

    Many ocean ecosystems are thought to be heading towards a dominance of gelatinous organisms. However, gelatinous zooplankton has been largely understudied and the absence of quantitative long-term data for the studied area impedes drawing conclusions on potential increasing densities. This study gives a comprehensive overview of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of gelatinous zooplankton in terms of diversity and density in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the adjacent Schelde estuary, based on monthly and seasonal samples between March 2011 and February 2012. Three Scyphozoa, three Ctenophora and 27 Hydrozoa taxa were identified, including three non-indigenous species: Mnemiopsis leidyi, Nemopsis bachei and Lovenella assimilis. In general, one gelatinous zooplankton assemblage was found across locations and seasons. Average gelatinous zooplankton densities reached up to 18 indm-3 near the coast, gradually declining towards the open sea. In the brackish Schelde estuary, average densities remained below 3 indm-3. Highest gelatinous zooplankton densities were recorded in summer and autumn. Overall, hydromedusae were the most important group both in terms of diversity and density. The ctenophore Pleurobrachia pileus and the hydromedusa Clytia sp. were present in every season and at every location. Gelatinous zooplankton densities never outnumbered the non-gelatinous zooplankton densities recorded from the WP3 samples. The spatial and temporal distribution patterns seemed to be mainly driven by temperature (season) and salinity (location). Other environmental parameters including (larger) non-gelatinous zooplankton densities (as an important food source) were not retained in the most parsimonious DistLM model.In terms of population dynamics, Beroe sp. seemed to follow the three reproductive cycles of its prey P. pileus and the presence of M. leidyi, which were abundant in a broad size spectrum in summer and autumn. In general, gelatinous zooplankton diversity was higher, but densities were in the same order of magnitude compared to adjacent areas in the North Sea. This study provides a baseline against which a potential increase in gelatinous zooplankton in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the Schelde estuary can be measured.

  14. Sound scattering by several zooplankton groups. II. Scattering models.

    PubMed

    Stanton, T K; Chu, D; Wiebe, P H

    1998-01-01

    Mathematical scattering models are derived and compared with data from zooplankton from several gross anatomical groups--fluidlike, elastic shelled, and gas bearing. The models are based upon the acoustically inferred boundary conditions determined from laboratory backscattering data presented in part I of this series [Stanton et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 103, 225-235 (1998)]. The models use a combination of ray theory, modal-series solution, and distorted wave Born approximation (DWBA). The formulations, which are inherently approximate, are designed to include only the dominant scattering mechanisms as determined from the experiments. The models for the fluidlike animals (euphausiids in this case) ranged from the simplest case involving two rays, which could qualitatively describe the structure of target strength versus frequency for single pings, to the most complex case involving a rough inhomogeneous asymmetrically tapered bent cylinder using the DWBA-based formulation which could predict echo levels over all angles of incidence (including the difficult region of end-on incidence). The model for the elastic shelled body (gastropods in this case) involved development of an analytical model which takes into account irregularities and discontinuities of the shell. The model for gas-bearing animals (siphonophores) is a hybrid model which is composed of the summation of the exact solution to the gas sphere and the approximate DWBA-based formulation for arbitrarily shaped fluidlike bodies. There is also a simplified ray-based model for the siphonophore. The models are applied to data involving single pings, ping-to-ping variability, and echoes averaged over many pings. There is reasonable qualitative agreement between the predictions and single ping data, and reasonable quantitative agreement between the predictions and variability and averages of echo data. PMID:9440326

  15. Effects of toxic substances on zooplankton populations: a Great Lakes perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, M.S.; McNaught, D.

    1988-01-01

    The chapter discusses how toxic substances can affect zooplankton, both at the species and community level, modifying factors affecting toxicity, the effects of various environmental pertubations, including toxic substances, on Great Lakes zooplankton, and the role of zooplankton in the transport, persistence, and biomagnification of toxic substances.

  16. Impact of climate change on zooplankton communities, seabird populations and arctic terrestrial ecosystem—A scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stempniewicz, Lech; Błachowiak-Samołyk, Katarzyna; Węsławski, Jan M.

    2007-11-01

    Many arctic terrestrial ecosystems suffer from a permanent deficiency of nutrients. Marine birds that forage at sea and breed on land can transport organic matter from the sea to land, and thus help to initiate and sustain terrestrial ecosystems. This organic matter initiates the emergence of local tundra communities, increasing primary and secondary production and species diversity. Climate change will influence ocean circulation and the hydrologic regime, which will consequently lead to a restructuring of zooplankton communities between cold arctic waters, with a dominance of large zooplankton species, and Atlantic waters in which small species predominate. The dominance of large zooplankton favours plankton-eating seabirds, such as the little auk ( Alle alle), while the presence of small zooplankton redirects the food chain to plankton-eating fish, up through to fish-eating birds (e.g., guillemots Uria sp.). Thus, in regions where the two water masses compete for dominance, such as in the Barents Sea, plankton-eating birds should dominate the avifauna in cold periods and recess in warmer periods, when fish-eaters should prevail. Therefore under future anthropogenic climate scenarios, there could be serious consequences for the structure and functioning of the terrestrial part of arctic ecosystems, due in part to changes in the arctic marine avifauna. Large colonies of plankton-eating little auks are located on mild mountain slopes, usually a few kilometres from the shore, whereas colonies of fish-eating guillemots are situated on rocky cliffs at the coast. The impact of guillemots on the terrestrial ecosystems is therefore much smaller than for little auks because of the rapid washing-out to sea of the guano deposited on the seabird cliffs. These characteristics of seabird nesting sites dramatically limit the range of occurrence of ornithogenic soils, and the accompanying flora and fauna, to locations where talus-breeding species occur. As a result of climate warming favoring the increase of ichthyiofagous cliff-nesting seabirds, we can expect that large areas of ornithogenic tundra around the colonies of plankton-eating seabirds situated far from the sea may disappear, while areas of tundra in the vicinity of cliffs inhabited by fish-eating seabirds, with low total production and supporting few large herbivores, will likely increase, but only imperceptibly. This may lead to habitat fragmentation with negative consequences for populations of tundra-dependent birds and mammals, and the possibility of a substantial decrease in biodiversity of tundra plant and animal communities.

  17. Role of Zooplankton Diversity in Vibrio cholerae Population Dynamics and in the Incidence of Cholera in the Bangladesh Sundarbans ?

    PubMed Central

    de Magny, Guillaume Constantin; Mozumder, Pronob K.; Grim, Christopher J.; Hasan, Nur A.; Naser, M. Niamul; Alam, Munirul; Sack, R. Bradley; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

    2011-01-01

    Vibrio cholerae, a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, is the causative agent of cholera, a severe watery, life-threatening diarrheal disease occurring predominantly in developing countries. V. cholerae, including both serogroups O1 and O139, is found in association with crustacean zooplankton, mainly copepods, and notably in ponds, rivers, and estuarine systems globally. The incidence of cholera and occurrence of pathogenic V. cholerae strains with zooplankton were studied in two areas of Bangladesh: Bakerganj and Mathbaria. Chitinous zooplankton communities of several bodies of water were analyzed in order to understand the interaction of the zooplankton population composition with the population dynamics of pathogenic V. cholerae and incidence of cholera. Two dominant zooplankton groups were found to be consistently associated with detection of V. cholerae and/or occurrence of cholera cases, namely, rotifers and cladocerans, in addition to copepods. Local differences indicate there are subtle ecological factors that can influence interactions between V. cholerae, its plankton hosts, and the incidence of cholera. PMID:21764957

  18. Population structure changes in zooplankton following PAH exposure in aquatic mesocosms

    SciTech Connect

    McCann, J.H.; Gensemer, R.W.; Solomon, K.R.

    1994-12-31

    Studies on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have generally concentrated on single compounds. However, PAHs are usually found as mixtures in the aquatic environment and may pose significant risk to the ecosystem. A study was conducted to determine the effect of creosote (a mixture of PAHs) on pelagic invertebrates, including cladocerans, copepods, amphipods, and rotifers. Artificial aquatic mesocosms consisting of a simple community structure, including fish, algae, macrophytes and invertebrates, were utilized. Four doses of creosote and a control were used. Dosing was accomplished by adding contaminated sediment to the mesocosm, ranging from 100 cm{sup 2} to 3 m{sup 2} in area. As well, 1 to 8 creosote coated log pilings were added to several mesocosms, simulating aquatic exposure to preserved log pilings. The zooplankton at the various dose levels were enumerated. The changes in population structure will be described.

  19. Response of predatory zooplankton populations to the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin

    SciTech Connect

    Sierszen, M.E.; Frost, T.M.

    1993-01-01

    To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, the authors monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of three levels: pH 5.6, 5.2 and 4.7). Concentrations of phantom midge (Chaoborus spp.), the most abundant large predator, remained similar in the treatment and reference basins until the fourth year (pH 5.2) when they increased in the treatment basin. In contrast, Epischura lacustris and Leptodora kindtii disappeared from limnetic samples, and water mites declined to near zero upon acidification. Treatment basin populations of E. lacustris declined sharply during the second year of acidification. The nature of the decline suggested sensitivity of an early life stage during the first year at pH 5.6. Leptodora kindtii showed no population response at pH 5.6, but declined to essentially zero at pH 5.2. Treatment basin populations of water mites fluctuated until declining in the fifth and sixth years (pH 4.7). These changes indicate a variety of direct and indirect responses to lake acidification.

  20. Effects of inorganic turbidity and reservoir floods on the feeding and population dynamics of Cladoceran zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Shuman, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    Clearance rates of {sup 32}P-labeled yeast cell tracer particles and gravimetric seston analysis were used to estimate in situ seston ingestion rates of Daphnia parvula and Bosmina along the seston gradient in Tuttle Creek Reservoir, near Manhattan, Kansas. An ingestion rate depression occurred for both species at the highest seston concentration. The smallest animals, Bosmina, had a lower incipient limiting concentration and exhibited a stronger ingestion rate depression. The fecundity and abundance of Daphnia parvula, grown in enclosures along the seston gradient prior to the ingestion rate measurements, were highest at the river inflow region. Reservoir Bosmina, however, were least abundant and had the lowest fecundity at the river inflow region. The abundance of Bosmina, calanoid copepods, and cyclopoid copepods were lower following large storm inflows in the late spring of 1983 and 1984, while the abundance of Diaphanosoma and Moina were similar. Both open reservoir and in situ enclosure populations of Daphnia pulex were reduced following the storm inflow, while only enclosure populations of Daphnia parvula were lower. Diaphanosoma and calanoid copepods dominated the zooplankton during sampling from spring through fall 1984, particularly in midsummer when temperatures were greater than 25{degree}C. Daphnids dominated numerically during the fall baseflow period.

  1. Water level and temperature and zooplankton population abundances in Lake Surinumu, Papua New Guinea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vlaardingerbroek, Barend

    1989-09-01

    Lake Surinumu, an oligotrophic hydroelectric impoundment on the Laloki River in Central Province, Papua New Guinea, was sampled throughout 1982 for its zooplankton community composition, water level and surface temperature. The zooplankton community was observed to be normally dominated by Eodiaptomus lumholtzi, Ceriodaphnia cornuta and the Diaphanosoma species D. sarsi and D. excisum, though the rotifer T. equatorialis became dominant toward the end of the sampling period. Nutrient levels, especially with regard to ionic nitrogen, were observed to decrease following the monsoonal influx. Close correlations were found between water level and surface temperature, and between water level and the relative abundances of E. lumholtzi, diaphanosomids and T. equatorialis. The zooplankton community was observed to undergo the most significant changes during periods of monsoonal influx and lowest water level/highest water temperature. In the absence of significant interspecific abundance correlations, it is suggested that climatic factors are primarily responsible for the dynamics of the zooplankton community composition.

  2. Environmental influence on coastal phytoplankton and zooplankton diversity: a multivariate statistical model analysis.

    PubMed

    Chou, Wei-Rung; Fang, Lee-Shing; Wang, Wei-Hsien; Tew, Kwee Siong

    2012-09-01

    In a marine ecosystem, the diversity of phytoplankton can influence the diversity of zooplankton, or vice versa, and both can be affected by the environmental factors. In this study, we used principal component analysis (PCA) to identify the major sources of influence on the coastal water near an industrial park, following by construction of structural equation model (SEM) to determine the direct and indirect effect of the factors on phytoplankton and zooplankton diversity. PCA results indicated that the coastal area was mainly affected by riverine discharge (represented by high PC factor loadings of transparency and turbidity) and seasonal change (represented by temperature). SEM further suggested that both riverine discharge and seasonal influences can directly affect phytoplankton diversity, but indirectly affected zooplankton diversity via changes in phytoplankton. Using PCA to determine the sources of influence followed by construction of SEM allowed us to understand the relative importance of the environmental factors, direct or indirect, on phytoplankton and zooplankton diversity. When environmental changes occur, a new SEM could be constructed using the same category of physical and biological data and then compared to the current model to verify whether the environmental changes were the cause of alterations in planktonic communities in the area. PMID:21956341

  3. Biomass, growth, and development of populations of herbivorous zooplankton in the southeastern Bering Sea during spring

    SciTech Connect

    Vidal, J.; Smith, S.L.

    1985-09-01

    Two distinct communities of herbivorous zooplankton, separated by an oceanographic front, inhabit the continental shelf and slope of the southeastern Bering Sea during spring. The community over the outer shelf and slope is dominated by populations of large-sized oceanic copepods (mainly Neocalanus ssp.) that develop early in spring and attain maximum biomass and growth rates by mid- to late spring. Total biomass and growth rates of herbivores follow the spring outburst of phytoplankton; during April and May biomass increases from less than or equal to1 to approx.14 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope and to approx.10 g C m/sup -2/ on the outer shelf, and maximum growth rates >500 and approx.300 mg C m/sup -2/ day/sup -1/ occure on the slope and outer shelf, respectively in May. The dominant species, N. plumchrus, grows from copepodid I and V between late March and early May, and after attaining maximum body weight in late May and early June it begins its downward migration. The inshore community on the middle shelf is dominated by the euphausiid Thysanoessa raschi in April and May and by the copepod Calanus marshallae in late May and early June. Total biomass (less than or equal to g C m/sup -2/) and growth rates (less than or equal to50 mg C m/sup -2/) of the inshore community are substantially lower than those of the offshore community and show a delayed response to the spring bloom of phytoplankton; both biomass and growth rates increase about one month after the bloom. Small herbivorous copepods contributed little to the total biomass and growth rates of either community and the cumulative community growth rates during April and May decreases from 18.3 g C m/sup -2/ on the slope to 2.5 g C m/sup -2/ on the middle shelf. 79 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  4. Biomixing due to diel vertical migrations of zooplankton: Comparison of computational fluid dynamics model with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dean, Cayla; Soloviev, Alexander; Hirons, Amy; Frank, Tamara; Wood, Jon

    2016-02-01

    Recent studies (Dewar et al., 2006; Wilhelmus and Dabiri, 2014) suggest that diel vertical migrations (DVM) of zooplankton (or other migrating organisms) may have an impact on ocean mixing, though details are not completely clear. Zooplankton that undergo DVM can have an impact on oil transport through the water column, and oil and dispersants can have a negative or even lethal effect on the organisms. Kunze et al. (2006) reported an increase of dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, ε, by four to five orders of magnitude during DVM of zooplankton over background turbulence in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada. However, the effect was not observed in the same area by Rousseau et al. (2010) and was later reassessed by Kunze (2011). In our work, an 11-month data set obtained in the Straits of Florida with a bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler revealed strong sound scattering layers undergoing DVM. We used a 3-D non-hydrostatic computational fluid dynamics model with Lagrangian particle injections (a proxy for migrating organisms) via a discrete phase model to simulate the effect of turbulence generation by DVM. We tested a range of organism concentrations from 1000 to 10,000 organisms/m3 based on measurements by Greenlaw (1979) and Mackie and Mills (1983) in Saanich Inlet. At a concentration close to the upper limit, the simulation showed an increase in ε by two to three orders of magnitude during DVM over background turbulence, 10-9 W kg-1. At a concentration of 1000 organisms/m3, almost no turbulence above the background level was produced in the model. These results suggest that the Kunze et al. (2006) observations could have been performed at a larger concentration of migrating zooplankton than those reported by Rousseau et al. (2010). No exact zooplankton concentrations data were provided in either work. The difference between observations and the model can, in part, be explained by the fact that Kunze et al. (2006) measured instantaneous profiles of ε, while the model results on ε were averaged horizontally over the 50 m by 50 m domain. In the Straits of Florida, we observed a small decrease in northward current velocity profiles during migration times after averaging over 11 months of observations. The computational fluid dynamics model reproduced this decrease of current velocity due to turbulence generated by DVM in the Straits of Florida model case. The deviations in the velocity profiles can be explained by the increase in turbulent mixing during vertical migration periods. Comparison of observational data to the model results was complicated by physical factors such as tides, Florida Current meandering, etc., which may have a stronger effect on current velocity profiles than DVM.

  5. Is there enough zooplankton to feed forage fish populations off Peru? An acoustic (positive) answer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balln, Michael; Bertrand, Arnaud; Lebourges-Dhaussy, Anne; Gutirrez, Mariano; Ayn, Patricia; Grados, Daniel; Gerlotto, Franois

    2011-12-01

    The Northern Humboldt Current system (NHCS) produces more fish per unit area than any other region in the world. Although the system produces enough macrozooplankton to sustain its high production of forage fish, the paucity of information on macrozooplankton hampers research into the system. In this study, we estimated the biomass of the epipelagic crustacean macrozooplankton from the NHCS during both austral summer and spring 2005. To do this, we developed a bi-frequency acoustic method and extracted high-resolution information on the biomass and the patterns of distribution of crustacean macrozooplankton, fish and other marine compartments. We found that, although macrozooplankton comprises a number of distinct organisms, the euphausiids were the zooplankton group that better fitted the patterns from independent net sampling zooplankton data. Also, the similarities between the nocturnal patterns of size and biomass macrozooplankton distribution from this study and the known patterns of euphausiids, in particular Euphausia mucronata, suggest that euphausiids were the main constituent of the estimated nocturnal acoustic macrozooplankton biomass even if other organisms such as large copepods may have contributed considerably to the macrozooplankton biomass. The total macrozooplankton biomass was estimated to about 105 g m -2, i.e., two to five times more than previous estimates. This direct biomass estimation of macrozooplankton is in agreement with the new findings in trophic ecology indicating that forage fish consume mainly macrozooplankton. This high biomass also supports the current hypotheses explaining the NHCS high fish production. Using the method, we are able to revisit present-day and historical acoustic databases and extract high-resolution data on macrozooplankton, a key ecological compartment of the ecosystem. Since zooplankton is the link between the physically driven primary producers and the biologically driven tertiary consumers, this information is essential to achieve a mechanistic understanding of the system, from physics to top predators.

  6. Estimating release rates of phosphorus from zooplankton: model and experimental verification

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-07-01

    The flux of phosphorus in a zooplankton-phytoplankton system is described by a simple compartment model, with differential equations for grazing, growth and reproduction of animals, and release and recycling of P. The mean release rates from zooplankton for a given period are derived for cases restricted to animals feeding on algae at densities above the incipient limiting food concentration. The model is used to analyze short term incubation experiments with Daphnia pulex feeding on Scenedesmus sp. and Daphnia longispina feeding on Rhodomonas lacustris in dim light. When food organisms were saturated with P. total release rates were in the range 1.1-1.5 ..mu..g P (mg dry wt)/sup -1/h/sup -1/ in accordance with a maximal excretion rate of 0.8 ..mu..g P (mg dry wt)/sup -1/h)/sup 1/ predicted by the model of Peters. Phosphorus-starved phytoplankton, containing less P, gave much lower release rates, about 0.05 ..mu..g P (mg dry wt)/sup -1/h/sup -1/, only 10% of the excretion rate predicted by the model of Peters.

  7. Extended probit mortality model for zooplankton against transient change of PCO(2).

    PubMed

    Sato, Toru; Watanabe, Yuji; Toyota, Koji; Ishizaka, Joji

    2005-09-01

    The direct injection of CO(2) in the deep ocean is a promising way to mitigate global warming. One of the uncertainties in this method, however, is its impact on marine organisms in the near field. Since the concentration of CO(2), which organisms experience in the ocean, changes with time, it is required to develop a biological impact model for the organisms against the unsteady change of CO(2) concentration. In general, the LC(50) concept is widely applied for testing a toxic agent for the acute mortality. Here, we regard the probit-transformed mortality as a linear function not only of the concentration of CO(2) but also of exposure time. A simple mathematical transform of the function gives a damage-accumulation mortality model for zooplankton. In this article, this model was validated by the mortality test of Metamphiascopsis hirsutus against the transient change of CO(2) concentration. PMID:15913663

  8. Metal and proton toxicity to lake zooplankton: a chemical speciation based modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Stockdale, Anthony; Tipping, Edward; Lofts, Stephen; Fott, Jan; Garmo, Oyvind A; Hruska, Jakub; Keller, Bill; Löfgren, Stefan; Maberly, Stephen C; Majer, Vladimir; Nierzwicki-Bauer, Sandra A; Persson, Gunnar; Schartau, Ann-Kristin; Thackeray, Stephen J; Valois, Amanda; Vrba, Jaroslav; Walseng, Bjørn; Yan, Norman

    2014-03-01

    The WHAM-FTOX model quantifies the combined toxic effects of protons and metal cations towards aquatic organisms through the toxicity function (FTOX), a linear combination of the products of organism-bound cation and a toxic potency coefficient for each cation. We describe the application of the model to predict an observable ecological field variable, species richness of pelagic lake crustacean zooplankton, studied with respect to either acidification or the impacts of metals from smelters. The fitted results give toxic potencies increasing in the order H(+) < Al < Cu < Zn < Ni. In general, observed species richness is lower than predicted, but in some instances agreement is close, and is rarely higher than predictions. The model predicts recovery in agreement with observations for three regions, namely Sudbury (Canada), Bohemian Forest (Czech Republic) and a subset of lakes across Norway, but fails to predict observed recovery from acidification in Adirondack lakes (USA). PMID:24370669

  9. STRUCTURED POPULATION MODELS OF HERBIVEROUS ZOOPLANKTON. (R823588)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  10. Living on the edge: populations of two zooplankton species living closer to agricultural fields are more resistant to a common insecticide.

    PubMed

    Bendis, Randall J; Relyea, Rick A

    2014-12-01

    Ecological communities across the globe are exposed to diverse natural and anthropogenic stressors and disturbances that can lead to community-wide impacts. Contaminants are a group of anthropogenic disturbances that are ubiquitous in the environment and can trigger trophic cascades, increased susceptibility to pathogens, reduced biodiversity, and altered ecosystems. In these ecosystems, substantial attention has been given to evolved resistance in targeted pest species, but little attention has been given to the evolution of resistance in nontarget species in nature. For the present study, the authors used laboratory toxicity tests to determine if 2 common, co-occurring species of freshwater zooplankton (Simocephalus vetulus and Daphnia pulex) showed population-level variation in sensitivity to a common insecticide (chlorpyrifos). For both species, it was found that populations living near agricultural fields--a proxy for pesticide use--were more resistant to chlorpyrifos than populations collected from ponds far from agriculture. This finding is consistent with the evolution of resistance to pesticides. To the authors' knowledge, only 1 previous study (using Daphnia magna) has demonstrated this relationship. Collectively, these results suggest that evolved resistance may be common in zooplankton populations located near agriculture. Moreover, because zooplankton play a key role in aquatic food webs, it is expected that population variation in resistance would dramatically alter aquatic food webs, particularly with exposure to low concentrations of insecticides. PMID:25220688

  11. The zooplankton of Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula—Part I: Abundance, distribution, and population response to variability in environmental conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marrari, Marina; Daly, Kendra L.; Timonin, Alexander; Semenova, Tatjana

    2011-07-01

    The zooplankton community of Marguerite Bay was studied during austral fall of 2001 and 2002 using net and concurrent environmental data. Interannual differences were observed in zooplankton species composition, developmental stages, and abundances, which were linked to unusually high chlorophyll concentrations in the Bellingshausen Sea and Marguerite Bay during spring-summer 2000/2001. Copepod abundance was significantly higher in 2001 than in 2002 (46.3 and 28.3 ind m -3 in 2001 and 2002, respectively). During 2001, the copepod community was dominated by two species. Calanoides acutus, a herbivore, and Metridia gerlachei, an omnivore, accounted for 46% and 45% of the community, respectively. During 2002, however, several species were relatively abundant, including M. gerlachei, Ctenocalanus spp., C. acutus, Oithona spp., and Paraeuchaeta spp. Euphausiids also showed a rapid population response to high chlorophyll levels in 2001. Even though average total euphausiid (juvenile/adult) abundances were similar during both years (0.20 and 0.15 ind m -3 for 2001 and 2002, respectively), species composition showed marked interannual differences due to varying life history strategies among species. Thysanoessa macrura, which has a relatively rapid development from larval to juvenile stages between spring and fall of the same year, was the most abundant euphausiid in 2001. In contrast, Euphausia crystallorophias and Euphausia superba juvenile/adult populations increased in 2002, owing to a slower development in which larval stages overwinter and recruit to juveniles during the following spring/summer. Other zooplankton groups those were abundant in Marguerite Bay, but showed little variability between years, included ostracods, pteropods, chaetognaths, medusae, amphipods, and mysids. Summer phytoplankton concentrations strongly influenced copepods and euphausiids; however, there were no clear associations between zooplankton distributions and fall environmental conditions (i.e., pigment concentrations and surface salinity) or bottom depth. It is notable that ostracods and pteropods had the highest abundances of non-copepod zooplankton.

  12. Acoustic classification of zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin Traykovski, Linda V.

    1998-11-01

    Work on the forward problem in zooplankton bioacoustics has resulted in the identification of three categories of acoustic scatterers: elastic-shelled (e.g. pteropods), fluid-like (e.g. euphausiids), and gas-bearing (e.g. siphonophores). The relationship between backscattered energy and animal biomass has been shown to vary by a factor of ~19,000 across these categories, so that to make accurate estimates of zooplankton biomass from acoustic backscatter measurements of the ocean, the acoustic characteristics of the species of interest must be well-understood. This thesis describes the development of both feature based and model based classification techniques to invert broadband acoustic echoes from individual zooplankton for scatterer type, as well as for particular parameters such as animal orientation. The feature based Empirical Orthogonal Function Classifier (EOFC) discriminates scatterer types by identifying characteristic modes of variability in the echo spectra, exploiting only the inherent characteristic structure of the acoustic signatures. The model based Model Parameterisation Classifier (MPC) classifies based on correlation of observed echo spectra with simplified parameterisations of theoretical scattering models for the three classes. The Covariance Mean Variance Classifiers (CMVC) are a set of advanced model based techniques which exploit the full complexity of the theoretical models by searching the entire physical model parameter space without employing simplifying parameterisations. Three different CMVC algorithms were developed: the Integrated Score Classifier (ISC), the Pairwise Score Classifier (PSC) and the Bayesian Probability Classifier (BPC); these classifiers assign observations to a class based on similarities in covariance, mean, and variance, while accounting for model ambiguity and validity. These feature based and model based inversion techniques were successfully applied to several thousand echoes acquired from broadband (~350 kHz-750 kHz) insonifications of live zooplankton collected on Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine to determine scatterer class. CMVC techniques were also applied to echoes from fluid-like zooplankton (Antarctic krill) to invert for angle of orientation using generic and animal-specific theoretical and empirical models. Application of these inversion techniques in situ will allow correct apportionment of backscattered energy to animal biomass, significantly improving estimates of zooplankton biomass based on acoustic surveys. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.)

  13. Zooplankton and forage fish species off Peru: Large-scale bottom-up forcing and local-scale depletion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayón, Patricia; Swartzman, Gordon; Bertrand, Arnaud; Gutiérrez, Mariano; Bertrand, Sophie

    2008-10-01

    The Humboldt Current System, like all upwelling systems, has dramatic quantities of plankton-feeding fish, which suggested that their population dynamics may ‘drive’ or ‘control’ ecosystem dynamics. With this in mind we analysed the relationship between forage fish populations and their main prey, zooplankton populations. Our study combined a zooplankton sampling program (1961-2005) with simultaneous acoustic observations on fish from 40 pelagic surveys (1983-2005) conducted by the Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE) and landing statistics for anchoveta ( Engraulis ringens) and sardine ( Sardinops sagax) along the Peruvian coast from 1961 to 2005. The multi-year trend of anchoveta population abundance varied consistently with zooplankton biovolume trend, suggesting bottom-up control on anchovy at the population scale (since oceanographic conditions and phytoplankton production support the changes in zooplankton abundance). For a finer-scale analysis (km) we statistically modelled zooplankton biovolume as a function of geographical (latitude and distance from the 200-m isobath), environmental (sea surface temperature), temporal (year, month and time-of-day) and biological (acoustic anchovy and sardine biomass within 5 km of each zooplankton sample) covariates over all survey using both classification and regression trees (CART) and generalized additive models (GAM). CART showed local anchoveta density to have the strongest effect on zooplankton biovolume, with significantly reduced levels of biovolume for higher neighbourhood anchoveta biomass. Additionally, zooplankton biovolume was higher offshore than on the shelf. GAM results corroborated the CART findings, also showing a clear diel effect on zooplankton biovolume, probably due to diel migration or daytime net avoidance. Apparently, the observed multi-year population scale bottom-up control is not inconsistent with local depletion of zooplankton when anchoveta are locally abundant, since the latter effect was observed over a wide range of overall anchoveta abundance.

  14. Polarization contrast of zooplankton: a model for polarization-based sighting distance.

    PubMed

    Sabbah, Shai; Shashar, Nadav

    2006-02-01

    Transparency is commonly used by zooplankton for camouflage in open waters. Polarization vision allows planktivorous animals to increase their prey's detectability. Polarization properties of zooplankton were analyzed by measuring changes in the transmitted light. The transmitted light was subjected to depolarization and phase retardance, resulting in a species-specific polarization contrast between animal and background; from 5% in Corycaeus sp. to 92% in Undinula vulgaris (Copepoda). This contrast diminishes exponentially with distance, reaching 50% of the inherent value at 1 and 2m, for moderately turbid and clear waters, respectively. However, at reactive distances of planktivorous fishes this contrast is reduced by less than 20%. PMID:16023168

  15. Zooplankton interactions with toxic phytoplankton: Some implications for food web studies and algal defence strategies of feeding selectivity behaviour, toxin dilution and phytoplankton population diversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barreiro, A.; Guisande, C.; Maneiro, I.; Vergara, A. R.; Riveiro, I.; Iglesias, P.

    2007-11-01

    This study focuses on the interactions between toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton grazers. The experimental conditions used are an attempt to simulate situations that have, so far, received little attention. We presume the phytoplankton community to be a set of species where a population of a toxic species is intrinsically diverse by the presence of coexisting strains with different toxic properties. The other species in the community may not always be high-quality food for herbivorous zooplankton. Zooplankton populations may have developed adaptive responses to sympatric toxic phytoplankton species. Zooplankton grazers may perform a specific feeding behaviour and its consequences on fitness will depend on the species ingested, the effect of toxins, and the presence of mechanisms of toxin dilution and compensatory feeding. Our target species are a strain of the dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum and a sympatric population of the copepod Acartia clausi. Mixed diets were used with two kinds of A. minutum cells: non-toxic and toxic. The flagellate Rhodomonas baltica and the non-toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense were added as accompanying species. The effect of each alga was studied in separate diets. The toxic A. minutum cells were shown to have negative effects on egg production, hatching success and total reproductive output, while, in terms of its effect on fitness, the non-toxic A. minutum was the best quality food offered. R. baltica and A. tamarense were in intermediate positions. In the mixed diets, copepods showed a strong preference for toxic A. minutum cells and a weaker one for A. tamarense cells, while non-toxic A. minutum was slightly negatively selected and R. baltica strongly negatively selected. Although the level of toxins accumulated by copepods was very similar, in both the diet with only toxic A. minutum cells and in the mixed diet, the negative effects on fitness in the mixed diet could be offset by toxin dilution mechanisms. The implications of these findings are the fact that mesozooplankton may not play an important role in phytoplankton blooms development. Phytoplankton endotoxin production does not seem to be an evolutionary stable strategy as a defence against some herbivores.

  16. Dynamics of the parasite Marteilia refringens (Paramyxea) in Mytilus galloprovincialis and zooplankton populations in Alfacs Bay (Catalonia, Spain).

    PubMed

    Carrasco, N; Lpez-Flores, I; Alcaraz, M; Furones, M D; Berthe, F C J; Arzul, I

    2007-10-01

    Since the first description of Marteilia refringens (Paramyxea) in flat oysters Ostrea edulis in 1968 in the Aber Wrach, Brittany (France), the life-cycle of this parasite has remained unknown. However, recent studies, conducted in the 'claire' system, have proposed the planktonic copepod Acartia grani as a potential intermediate host for the parasite. Nevertheless, experimental transmission of the parasite through the copepod has failed. Recent studies in this field have reported the presence of the parasite in zooplankton from the bays of the Delta de l'Ebre, a more complex and natural estuarine environment than that of the claire. As a result, 2 new Marteilia host species were proposed: the copepods Oithona sp. (Cyclopoida) and an indeterminate Harpaticoida. Consequently, the objective of the present work was to study the dynamics of Marteilia in the zooplankton community from one of the bays, Alfacs Bay, as well as the dynamics of the parasite in cultivated mussels during 1 complete year. Six different zooplankton taxa appeared to be parasitized by M. refringens, including copepods (3 Calanoida, Acartia discaudata, A. clausi and A. italica; 1 Cyclopoida, Oithona sp.; and 1 Harpacticoida, Euterpina acutifrons), and larval stages of decapod crustaceans (zoea larvae of Brachyura, probably Portumnus sp.). These taxa are thus proposed as new subjects for study, since they could be intermediate hosts in the infection process of mussels by Marteilia. PMID:17623489

  17. Hydroacoustic estimation of zooplankton biomass at two shoal complexes in the Apostle Islands Region of Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holbrook, B.V.; Hrabik, T.R.; Branstrator, D.K.; Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.

    2006-01-01

    Hydroacoustics can be used to assess zooplankton populations, however, backscatter must be scaled to be biologically meaningful. In this study, we used a general model to correlate site-specific hydroacoustic backscatter with zooplankton dry weight biomass estimated from net tows. The relationship between zooplankton dry weight and backscatter was significant (p < 0.001 ) and explained 76% of the variability in the dry weight data. We applied this regression to hydroacoustic data collected monthly in 2003 and 2004 at two shoals in the Apostle Island Region of Lake Superior. After applying the regression model to convert hydroacoustic backscatter to zooplankton dry weight biomass, we used geostatistics to analyze the mean and variance, and ordinary kriging to create spatial zooplankton distribution maps. The mean zooplankton dry weight biomass estimates from plankton net tows and hydroacoustics were not significantly different (p = 0.19) but the hydroacoustic data had a significantly lower coefficient of variation (p < 0.001). The maps of zooplankton distribution illustrated spatial trends in zooplankton dry weight biomass that were not discernable from the overall means.

  18. Temperature effects on stocks and stability of a phytoplankton-zooplankton model and the dependence on light and nutrients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norberg, J.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1997-01-01

    A model of a closed phytoplankton—zooplankton ecosystem was analyzed for effects of temperature on stocks and stability and the dependence of these effects on light and total nutrient concentration of the system. An analysis of the steady state equations showed that the effect of temperature on zooplankton and POM biomass was levelled when primary production is nutrient limited. Temperature increase had a generally negative effect on all biomasses at high nutrient levels due to increased maintenance costs. Nutrient limitation of net primary production is the main factor governing the effect of stocks and flows as well as the stability of the system. All components of the system, except for phytoplankton biomass, are proportional to net production and thus to the net effect of light on photosynthesis. However, temperature determines the slope of that relationship. The resilience of the system was measured by calculating the eigenvalues of the steady state. Under oligotrophic conditions, the system can be stable, but an increase in temperature can cause instability or a decrease in resilience. This conclusion is discussed in the face of recent models that take spatial heterogeneity into account and display far more stable behavior, in better agreement to empirical data. Using simulations, we found that the amplitude of fluctuations of the herbivore stock increases with temperature while the mean biomass and minimum values decrease in comparison with steady state predictions

  19. Application of an automatic approach to calibrate the NEMURO nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton food web model in the Oyashio region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, Shin-ichi; Yoshie, Naoki; Okunishi, Takeshi; Ono, Tsuneo; Okazaki, Yuji; Kuwata, Akira; Hashioka, Taketo; Rose, Kenneth A.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Kishi, Michio J.; Nakamachi, Miwa; Shimizu, Yugo; Kakehi, Shigeho; Saito, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Tadokoro, Kazuaki; Kusaka, Akira; Kasai, Hiromi

    2010-10-01

    The Oyashio region in the western North Pacific supports high biological productivity and has been well monitored. We applied the NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) model to simulate the nutrients, phytoplankton, and zooplankton dynamics. Determination of parameters values is very important, yet ad hoc calibration methods are often used. We used the automatic calibration software PEST (model-independent Parameter ESTimation), which has been used previously with NEMURO but in a system without ontogenetic vertical migration of the large zooplankton functional group. Determining the performance of PEST with vertical migration, and obtaining a set of realistic parameter values for the Oyashio, will likely be useful in future applications of NEMURO. Five identical twin simulation experiments were performed with the one-box version of NEMURO. The experiments differed in whether monthly snapshot or averaged state variables were used, in whether state variables were model functional groups or were aggregated (total phytoplankton, small plus large zooplankton), and in whether vertical migration of large zooplankton was included or not. We then applied NEMURO to monthly climatological field data covering 1 year for the Oyashio, and compared model fits and parameter values between PEST-determined estimates and values used in previous applications to the Oyashio region that relied on ad hoc calibration. We substituted the PEST and ad hoc calibrated parameter values into a 3-D version of NEMURO for the western North Pacific, and compared the two sets of spatial maps of chlorophyll- a with satellite-derived data. The identical twin experiments demonstrated that PEST could recover the known model parameter values when vertical migration was included, and that over-fitting can occur as a result of slight differences in the values of the state variables. PEST recovered known parameter values when using monthly snapshots of aggregated state variables, but estimated a different set of parameters with monthly averaged values. Both sets of parameters resulted in good fits of the model to the simulated data. Disaggregating the variables provided to PEST into functional groups did not solve the over-fitting problem, and including vertical migration seemed to amplify the problem. When we used the climatological field data, simulated values with PEST-estimated parameters were closer to these field data than with the previously determined ad hoc set of parameter values. When these same PEST and ad hoc sets of parameter values were substituted into 3-D-NEMURO (without vertical migration), the PEST-estimated parameter values generated spatial maps that were similar to the satellite data for the Kuroshio Extension during January and March and for the subarctic ocean from May to November. With non-linear problems, such as vertical migration, PEST should be used with caution because parameter estimates can be sensitive to how the data are prepared and to the values used for the searching parameters of PEST. We recommend the usage of PEST, or other parameter optimization methods, to generate first-order parameter estimates for simulating specific systems and for insertion into 2-D and 3-D models. The parameter estimates that are generated are useful, and the inconsistencies between simulated values and the available field data provide valuable information on model behavior and the dynamics of the ecosystem.

  20. Oxygenation of anoxic sediments triggers hatching of zooplankton eggs.

    PubMed

    Broman, Elias; Brsin, Martin; Dopson, Mark; Hylander, Samuel

    2015-10-22

    Many coastal marine systems have extensive areas with anoxic sediments and it is not well known how these conditions affect the benthic-pelagic coupling. Zooplankton lay their eggs in the pelagic zone, and some sink and lie dormant in the sediment, before hatched zooplankton return to the water column. In this study, we investigated how oxygenation of long-term anoxic sediments affects the hatching frequency of dormant zooplankton eggs. Anoxic sediments from the brackish Baltic Sea were sampled and incubated for 26 days with constant aeration whereby, the sediment surface and the overlying water were turned oxic. Newly hatched rotifers and copepod nauplii (juveniles) were observed after 5 and 8 days, respectively. Approximately 1.5 10(5) nauplii m(-2) emerged from sediment turned oxic compared with 0.02 10(5) m(-2) from controls maintained anoxic. This study demonstrated that re-oxygenation of anoxic sediments activated a large pool of buried zooplankton eggs, strengthening the benthic-pelagic coupling of the system. Modelling of the studied anoxic zone suggested that a substantial part of the pelagic copepod population can derive from hatching of dormant eggs. We suggest that this process should be included in future studies to understand population dynamics and carbon flows in marine pelagic systems. PMID:26468249

  1. Statistical Mechanics of Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Hinow, Peter; Nihongi, Ai; Strickler, J. Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics provides the link between microscopic properties of many-particle systems and macroscopic properties such as pressure and temperature. Observations of similar “microscopic” quantities exist for the motion of zooplankton, as well as many species of other social animals. Herein, we propose to take average squared velocities as the definition of the “ecological temperature” of a population under different conditions on nutrients, light, oxygen and others. We test the usefulness of this definition on observations of the crustacean zooplankton Daphnia pulicaria. In one set of experiments, D. pulicaria is infested with the pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera. We find that infested D. pulicaria under light exposure have a significantly greater ecological temperature, which puts them at a greater risk of detection by visual predators. In a second set of experiments, we observe D. pulicaria in cold and warm water, and in darkness and under light exposure. Overall, our ecological temperature is a good discriminator of the crustacean’s swimming behavior. PMID:26270537

  2. Modeling the direct and indirect effects of copper on phytoplankton-zooplankton interactions.

    PubMed

    Prosnier, Loc; Loreau, Michel; Hulot, Florence D

    2015-05-01

    Predicting the effects of pollution at the community level is difficult because of the complex impacts of ecosystem dynamics and properties. To predict the effects of copper on a plant-herbivore interaction in a freshwater ecosystem, we built a model that focuses on the interaction between an alga, Scenedesmus sp., and a herbivore, Daphnia sp. The model assumes logistic growth for Scenedesmus and a type II functional response for Daphnia. Internal copper concentrations in Scenedesmus and Daphnia are calculated using a biodynamic model. We include two types of direct effects of copper on Scenedesmus and Daphnia that results from hormesis: a deficiency effect at low concentration and a toxic effect at high concentration. We perform a numerical analysis to predict the combined effects of copper and nutrient enrichment on the Scenedesmus-Daphnia interaction. Results show three types of outcomes depending on copper concentration. First, low (4 ?g L(-1)) and high (50 ?g L(-1)) copper concentrations cause deficiency and toxicity, respectively, leading to the extinction of all populations; for less extreme concentrations (between 4 and 5 ?g L(-1) and between 16.5 and 50 ?g L(-1)), only the consumer population becomes extinct. The two populations survive with intermediate concentrations. Second, when population dynamics present oscillations, copper has a stabilizing effect and reduces or suppresses oscillations. Third, copper, on account of its stabilizing effect, opposes the destabilizing effect of nutrient enrichment. Our model shows that (1) Daphnia is affected by copper at lower concentrations when community interactions are taken into account than when analyzed alone, and (2) counterintuitive effects may arise from the interaction between copper pollution and nutrient enrichment. Our model also suggests that single-value parameters such as NOEC and LOEC, which do not take community interactions into account to characterize pollutants effects, are unable to determine pollutant effects in complex ecosystems. More generally, our model underscores the importance of ecosystem-scale studies to predict the effects of pollutants. PMID:25781394

  3. High-frequency acoustic scattering from gas-bearing zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavery, Andone C.; Stanton, Timothy K.; Wiebe, Peter H.; Benfield, Mark C.; Greene, Charles H.

    2003-04-01

    High-frequency acoustic scattering is well-suited to the synoptic investigation of marine organisms that inhabit the water-column, such as zooplankton and fish. However, the scattering characteristics of the organisms can be highly complex, and one must look for ways to distinguish one type of organism from another when interpreting the received echoes. From an acoustic scattering perspective, zooplankton generally fall into one of three categories: gas-bearing, fluid-like, or elastic-shelled. Scattering models, of different levels of sophistication are available for all three types of zooplankton. Gas-bearing zooplankton, unlike the other zooplankton categories, have a strong scattering resonance, which can be exploited for their identification. Scattering from gas-bearing zooplankton at frequencies close to the resonance frequency is much stronger than scattering from other zooplankton. Thus, in this frequency region, acoustic scatter from a small number of gas-bearing zooplankton can overwhelm that from a far larger number of fluid-like or elastic-shelled zooplankton. A series of zooplankton surveys of the Gulf of Maine has recently been completed in which a multi-frequency towed instrument platform, BIOMAPER-II, was employed. The strong scattering resonance of gas-bearing zooplankton, together with scattering models and ground-truthing, was exploited in order to determine regions with high densities of gas-bearing zooplankton.

  4. The effects of juvenile American shad planktivory on zooplankton production in Columbia River food webs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Haskell, Craig A.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2013-01-01

    Columbia River reservoirs support a large population of nonnative American Shad Alosa sapidissima that consume the zooplankton that native fishes also rely on. We hypothesized that the unprecedented biomass of juvenile American Shad in John Day Reservoir is capable of altering the zooplankton community if these fish consume a large portion of the zooplankton production. We derived taxon-specific estimates of zooplankton production using field data and a production model from the literature. Empirical daily ration was estimated for American Shad and expanded to population-level consumption using abundance and biomass data from hydroacoustic surveys. Daphnia spp. production was high in early summer but declined to near zero by September as shad abundance increased. American Shad sequentially consumed Daphnia spp., copepods, and Bosmina spp., which tracked the production trends of these taxa. American Shad evacuation rates ranged from 0.09 to 0.24/h, and daily rations ranged from 0.008 to 0.045 g·g−1·d−1 (dry weight) over all years. We observed peak American Shad biomass (45.2 kg/ha) in 1994, and daily consumption (1.6 kg/ha) approached 30% (5.3 kg/ha) of zooplankton production. On average, American Shad consumed 23.6% of the available zooplankton production (range, <1–83%). The changes in the zooplankton community are consistent with a top-down effect of planktivory by American Shad associated with their unprecedented biomass and consumption, but the effects are likely constrained by temperature, nutrient flux, and the seasonal production patterns of zooplankton in John Day Reservoir. American Shad add to the planktivory exerted by other species like Neomysis mercedis to reduce the capacity of the reservoir to support other planktivorous fishes. The introduction of American Shad and other nonnative species will continue to alter the food web in John Day Reservoir, potentially affecting native fishes, including Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp.

  5. Zooplankton research off Peru: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayón, Patricia; Criales-Hernandez, Maria I.; Schwamborn, Ralf; Hirche, Hans-Jürgen

    2008-10-01

    A review of zooplankton studies conducted in Peruvian marine waters is given. After a short history of the development of zooplankton research off Peru, we review zooplankton methodology, taxonomy, biodiversity, spatial distribution, seasonal and interannual variability, trophodynamics, secondary production, and modelling. We review studies on several micro-, meso-, macro-, and meroplankton groups, and give a species list from both published and unpublished reports. Three regional zooplankton groups have been identified: (1) a continental shelf group dominated by Acartia tonsa and Centropages brachiatus; (2) a continental slope group characterized by siphonophores, bivalves, foraminifera and radiolaria; (3) and a species-rich oceanic group. The highest zooplankton abundances and biomasses were often found between 4-6°S and 14-16°S, where continental shelves are narrow. Species composition changes with distance from the shore. Species composition and biomass also vary strongly on short time scales due to advection, peaks of larval production, trophic interactions, and community succession. The relation of zooplankton to climatic variability (ENSO and multi-decadal) and fish stocks is discussed in the context of ecological regime shifts. An intermediate upwelling hypothesis is proposed, based on the negative effects of low upwelling intensity in summer or extremely strong and enduring winter upwelling on zooplankton abundance off Peru. According to this hypothesis, intermediate upwelling creates an optimal environmental window for zooplankton communities. Finally, we highlight important knowledge gaps that warrant attention in future.

  6. High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Peijnenburg, Katja T C A; Goetze, Erica

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. PMID:24567838

  7. Latitudinal comparisons of equatorial Pacific zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, M. R.; Dam, H. G.; Le Borgne, R.; Zhang, X.

    Zooplankton biomass and rates of ingestion, egestion and production in the equatorial Pacific Ocean along 140W and 180 exhibit maximum values in the High-Nutrient Low-Chlorophyll (HNLC) zone associated with equatorial upwelling (5S-5N) as compared to the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south. Zooplankton biomass and rates are not usually highest on the equator, but increase "downstream" of the upwelling center as the zooplankton populations exhibit a delayed response to enhanced phytoplankton production. The vertical distribution of zooplankton biomass in the equatorial HNLC area tends to be concentrated in surface waters and is more uniform with depth in oligotrophic regions to the north and south of the equatorial upwelling zone. In general, the amount of mesozooplankton (>200 ?m) carbon biomass is approximately 25% of estimated phytoplankton biomass and 30% of bacterial biomass in the HNLC area of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Zooplankton grazing on phytoplankton is low in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, generally <5% of the total chlorophyll-a standing stock grazed per day. Based on estimates of metabolic demand, it is apparent that zooplankton in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are omnivores, consuming primarily microzooplankton and detritus. Estimated zooplankton growth rates in the warm waters of the HNLC equatorial Pacific Ocean are high, ranging from 0.58 d -1 for 64-200 ?m zooplankton to 0.08 d -1 for 1000-2000 ?m zooplankton. Thus, the numerical and functional response of equatorial zooplankton to increases in phytoplankton production are more rapid than normally occurs in sub-tropical and temperate waters. Potential zooplankton fecal pellet production, estimated from metabolic demand, is approximately 1.6 times the estimated gravitational carbon flux at 150 m in the zone of equatorial upwelling (5S-5N) and 1.1 times the export flux in the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south. The active flux of carbon by diel migrant zooplankton in the HNLC zone is a minor fraction of the gravitational flux (2% at 140W, 4% at 180) but increases in the more oligotrophic regions to the north and south where there is a deeper mixed layer and a greater relative proportion of diel migrant zooplankton.

  8. Zooplankton in the Arctic outflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soloviev, K. A.; Dritz, A. V.; Nikishina, A. B.

    2009-04-01

    Climate changes in the Arctic cause the changes in the current system that may have cascading effect on the structure of plankton community and consequently on the interlinked and delicately balanced food web. Zooplankton species are by definition incapable to perform horizontal moving. Their transport is connected with flowing water. There are zooplankton species specific for the definite water masses and they can be used as markers for the different currents. That allows us to consider zooplankton community composition as a result of water mixing in the studied area. Little is known however about the mechanisms by which spatial and temporal variability in advection affect dynamics of local populations. Ice conditions are also very important in the function of pelagic communities. Melting time is the trigger to all "plankton blooming" processes, and the duration of ice-free conditions determines the food web development in the future. Fram Strait is one of the key regions for the Arctic: the cold water outflow comes through it with the East Greenland Current and meets warm Atlantic water, the West Spitsbergen Current, producing complicated hydrological situation. During 2007 and 2008 we investigated the structure functional characteristics of zooplankton community in the Fram Strait region onboard KV "Svalbard" (April 2007, April and May 2008) and RV "Jan Mayen" (May 2007, August 2008). This study was conducted in frame of iAOOS Norway project "Closing the loop", which, in turn, was a part of IPY. During this cruises multidisciplinary investigations were performed, including sea-ice observations, CTD and ADCP profiling, carbon flux, nutrients and primary production measurements, phytoplankton sampling. Zooplankton was collected with the Hydro-Bios WP2 net and MultiNet Zooplankton Sampler, (mouth area 0.25 m2, mesh size 180 um).Samples were taken from the depth strata of 2000-1500, 1500-1000, 1000-500,500-200, 200-100, 100-60, 60-30, 30-0 m. Gut fluorescence content were measured in dominant species to investigate effect of Chl a concentration and phytoplankton composition on ingestion rate. Egg production experiments were carried out under different food conditions. Rare deep water zooplankton species were also investigated to increase our knowledge in the Arctic biodiversity. Copepods Calanus finmarchicus is known as a marker of the Atlantic water mass, Calanus glacialis and Calanus hyperboreus, vice versa, are the coldwater Arctic species. In our study we investigated three Calanus species distribution and analyzed their ecological status. Changes in zooplankton composition results in the alteration of energy transfer within the pelagic food web ("cold" and "warm" scenarios) with potential consequences for growth and survival of seabirds Little Auk (Alle alle) and Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla). We discuss the advection effect on the zooplankton community, compare the population development phases with phytoplankton bloom phases (match-mismatch), estimate grazing impact on phytoplankton community and consider different life strategies for the three different Calanus species.

  9. Introduction to Population Modeling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frauenthal, James C.

    The focus is on the formulation and solution of mathematical models with the idea of a population employed mainly as a pedogogical tool. If the biological setting is stripped away, the material can be interpreted as topics or the qualitative behavior of differential and difference equations. The first group of models investigate the dynamics of a

  10. Modeling Honey Bee Populations.

    PubMed

    Torres, David J; Ricoy, Ulises M; Roybal, Shanae

    2015-01-01

    Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population. PMID:26148010

  11. Modeling Honey Bee Populations

    PubMed Central

    Torres, David J.; Ricoy, Ulises M.; Roybal, Shanae

    2015-01-01

    Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population. PMID:26148010

  12. Zooplankton mortality in 3D ecosystem modelling considering variable spatial-temporal fish consumptions in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maar, Marie; Rindorf, Anna; Møller, Eva Friis; Christensen, Asbjørn; Madsen, Kristine S.; van Deurs, Mikael

    2014-05-01

    We tested the feasibility of imposing mesozooplankton mortality into a 3D model based on estimated consumption rates of the dominant planktivorous fish in the North Sea-Kattegat area. The spatial biomass distribution of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus), Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus), sandeel (Ammodytidae) and European sprat (Sprattus sprattus) was derived from quarterly scientific trawl surveys and Danish commercial catches. Spatio-temporal indices of mortality were created based on the estimated biomasses and ingestion rates from the literature. The fish larvae grazing pressure was obtained from a spatial, size-based larval community model. In this model, larvae, herring and sandeel were the most important fish predators on mesozooplankton, but these groups had different spatial and temporal (seasonal) distributions. Fish larvae were particularly dominant in the eastern and southern areas in early summer. Herring and sandeel had the highest consumption in the central and north-western areas and were more important in late summer. The fish index changed the perceived annual, seasonal and spatial patterns in modelled mesozooplankton biomass, production and mortality. In the present study, the index was kept relatively simple and can be further developed with respect to the description of fish as well carnivorous zooplankton ingestion rates. The data input required to create the fish index is (i) planktivorous fish stock biomasses and (ii) relative fish spawning distribution information and (iii) physics (ocean currents and temperatures) for the region and situation of interest. The fish index seems promising as a realistic mortality term for lower trophic levels in 3D ecosystem models in areas with available data on fish stocks to improve management of marine resources.

  13. Impacts of reduced pH from ocean CO{sub 2} disposal: Sensitivity of zooplankton mortality to model parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, E.E.; Caulfield, J.A.; Herzog, H.J.; Auerbach, D.I.

    1998-07-01

    The authors have developed a methodology to quantify mortality suffered by marine zooplankton passing through a CO{sub 2}-enriched sea water plume. Here the authors explore model sensitivity to some of the more important biological, physical and engineering design parameters, with particular reference to CO{sub 2} injection as a buoyant droplet plume. Uncertainty in the dose-response relationship, e.g. caused by the use of data for surface organisms, will affect predicted values of total mortality by less than a factor of two for a single point discharge from 10 standard (500 MWe) coal-fired values of total mortality by less than a factor of two for a single point discharge from 10 standard 500 MWe coal-fired electric power plants and a factor of five for a single point discharge from one standard plant. The most important design variable is the number of physically separated discharge points (diffuser ports or groups of ports) used to disperse the CO{sub 2}. Predicted mortality drops to zero as the number of discharge points per standard plants exceeds two. Finally the most important physical parameters are ambient current speed and turbulent diffusivity. As with the dose-response data, most physical oceanographic measurements have been conducted near the ocean surface. Model sensitivity suggests that a factor of 2.5 reduction in current speed or a factor of 3 reduction in ambient diffusivity, relative to the base case, would require that the number of discharge points per standard plant increase from 2 to 12 in order to avoid mortality. Thus, impacts can be strongly site-specific, and additional oceanographic measurements are needed at depths appropriate for CO{sub 2} sequestration. Nonetheless, it should be easy to design an environmentally conservative multi-point discharge system that can disperse CO{sub 2} as a droplet plume without significant mortality, even under adverse environmental conditions.

  14. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  15. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social

  16. The ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology: Accomplishments of the first 25 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiebe, Peter H.; Harris, Roger; Gislason, Astthor; Margonski, Piotr; Skjoldal, Hein Rune; Benfield, Mark; Hay, Steve; O'Brien, Todd; Valdés, Luis

    2016-02-01

    The ICES Study Group on Zooplankton Ecology was created in 1991 to address issues of current and future concern within the field of zooplankton ecology. Within three years it became the ICES Working Group on Zooplankton Ecology (ICES WGZE) and this unique group in the world's oceanographic community has now been active for 25 years. This article reviews and synthesizes the products, and major accomplishments of the group. Achievements of the group, including the Zooplankton Methodology Manual, the Zooplankton Status Reports, and the International Zooplankton Symposia, have had an important impact on the wider field. Among the future issues that remain to be addressed by the group are the assessment of exploratory fisheries on zooplankton and micronekton species; further development of the zooplankton time-series; compilation and integration of allometric relationships for zooplankton species, and evaluation of new methodologies for the study of zooplankton distribution, abundance, physiology, and genetics. Marine science is an increasingly global undertaking and groups such as the ICES WGZE will continue to be essential to the advancement of understanding of zooplankton community structure and population dynamics in the world's oceans.

  17. Zooplankton feeding ecology and the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake

    SciTech Connect

    Sierszen, M.E.

    1988-01-01

    There is considerable variety in both the selective behavior of suspension feeders and the quality of food available to them. The author reviews this variability and incorporate it in a simple model of particle selection that quantifies the consequences of selective feeding under various feeding conditions. To evaluate the concept that selective feeding enhances fitness, the author tests the hypothesis than an herbivorous zooplankton selects food items that best support its reproduction. Investigations of zooplankton herbivory in experimentally acidified Little Rock Lake indicate that acidification from pH 6.2 to pH 5.2 has not directly impaired feeding rates, while effects on selective feeding behavior are evident. Assessment of the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton indicate that Chaoborus spp. and water mite populations remain as yet unaffected, while Epischura lacustris and Leptodora kindtii have both declined in the acidified basin. Methodological tests show that preservation of labelled zooplankton by rapid freezing on dry ice minimizes loss of {sup 14}C and {sup 32}P. {sup 14}C retention approximates 100%, while {sup 32}P retention is more variable.

  18. Zooplankton of West Madagascar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bemiasa, John; Remanevy, Sitraka

    2014-05-01

    During six week survey (August - October 2009) in Western and Northern coast of Madagascar, the R/V 'Dr. Fridtjof Nansen' has carried out a study of the pelagic ecosystem. In collaboration with Agulhas & Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystems project (ASCLME) and South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Project (SWIOFP), the aim of the survey was to establish the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Western Madagascar shelf region as a whole. Zooplankton samples were collected with Hydrobios Multinet at all environmental stations ranging from 200 m depth to the surface. The Multinet was equipped with 5 nets for depth-stratified sampling. The nets were fitted with 180 m mesh size and the water flow through the nets was measured. The Multinet was deployed and retrieved at a rate of ~ 1.5 m per second and was obliquely hauled. The five nets were triggered at the pre-selected depth intervals 0-25m, 25-50m, 50-80m, 80-120m and 120-200m. All samples were stored in marked bottles and preserved with buffered formaldehyde of 4% for further analysis. As results,the zooplankton abundance was influenced by physico-chemical factors. During the study period 34 Family of zooplankton were identified which are dominated by Copepoda (58,69%) followed by Radiolaria (12,06%), Appendicularia (6,47%), Sagitta (5,11%), Larvae (4,57%), Ostracoda (3,13%), pelagic Foraminifera (2,15%). Family of zooplankton with abundance <1% were also recorded, namely Salpidae (0,94%), Euphausiacea (0,44%), Tintinnidae (0,39%), Annlidae Polychtes (0,34%), Mysidacea (0,21%), Ptropodae (0,13%). Highest number of zooplankton were found at the depth below the maximum of fluorescence during the day. Copepods distribution depends on site and depth. During this study, the number of identified species is always superior to 50 for all sampling sites. The findings of the present study will help to improve the scientific knowledge of the marine ecosystem of the west coast of Madagascar.

  19. Population modelling in drug development.

    PubMed

    Sheiner, L; Wakefield, J

    1999-09-01

    In this paper we discuss the vital role that population (hierarchical) modelling can play within the drug development process. Specifically, population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models can provide reliable predictions of an individualized dose-exposure-response relationship. A predictive model of this kind can be used to simulate and hence design clinical trials, find initial dosage regimens satisfying an optimality criterion on the population distribution of responses, and individualized regimens satisfying such a criterion conditional on individual features, such as sex, age, etc. Throughout we emphasize prediction and advocate mechanistic as opposed to empirical modelling, and argue that the Bayesian approach is particularly natural in this setting. PMID:10636334

  20. Rapid local adaptation mediates zooplankton community assembly in experimental mesocosms.

    PubMed

    Pantel, Jelena H; Duvivier, Cathy; Meester, Luc De

    2015-10-01

    Adaptive evolution can occur over similar timescales as ecological processes such as community assembly, but its particular effects on community assembly and structure and their magnitude are poorly understood. In experimental evolution trials, Daphnia magna were exposed to varying environments (presence and absence of fish and artificial macrophytes) for 2 months. Then, in a common gardening experiment, we compared zooplankton community composition when either experimentally adapted or D. magna from the original population were present. Local adaptation of D. magna significantly altered zooplankton community composition, leading to a suppression of abundances for some zooplankton taxa and facilitation for others. The effect size of D. magna adaptation was similar to that of adding fish or macrophytes to mesocosms, two important drivers of zooplankton community structure. Our results suggest that substantial amounts of variation in community composition in natural systems may be unexplained if evolutionary dynamics are ignored. PMID:26251339

  1. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,

  2. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  3. Estimating In Situ Zooplankton Non-Predation Mortality in an Oligo-Mesotrophic Lake from Sediment Trap Data: Caveats and Reality Check

    PubMed Central

    Dubovskaya, Olga P.; Tang, Kam W.; Gladyshev, Michail I.; Kirillin, Georgiy; Buseva, Zhanna; Kasprzak, Peter; Tolomeev, Aleksandr P.; Grossart, Hans-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Background Mortality is a main driver in zooplankton population biology but it is poorly constrained in models that describe zooplankton population dynamics, food web interactions and nutrient dynamics. Mortality due to non-predation factors is often ignored even though anecdotal evidence of non-predation mass mortality of zooplankton has been reported repeatedly. One way to estimate non-predation mortality rate is to measure the removal rate of carcasses, for which sinking is the primary removal mechanism especially in quiescent shallow water bodies. Objectives and Results We used sediment traps to quantify in situ carcass sinking velocity and non-predation mortality rate on eight consecutive days in 2013 for the cladoceran Bosmina longirostris in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin; the outcomes were compared against estimates derived from in vitro carcass sinking velocity measurements and an empirical model correcting in vitro sinking velocity for turbulence resuspension and microbial decomposition of carcasses. Our results show that the latter two approaches produced unrealistically high mortality rates of 0.58-1.04 d-1, whereas the sediment trap approach, when used properly, yielded a mortality rate estimate of 0.015 d-1, which is more consistent with concurrent population abundance data and comparable to physiological death rate from the literature. Ecological implications Zooplankton carcasses may be exposed to water column microbes for days before entering the benthos; therefore, non-predation mortality affects not only zooplankton population dynamics but also microbial and benthic food webs. This would be particularly important for carbon and nitrogen cycles in systems where recurring mid-summer decline of zooplankton population due to non-predation mortality is observed. PMID:26146995

  4. Modeling sandhill crane population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1979-01-01

    The impact of sport hunting on the Central Flyway population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) has been a subject of controversy for several years. A recent study (Buller 1979) presented new and important information on sandhill crane population dynamics. The present report is intended to incorporate that and other information into a mathematical model for the purpose of assessing the long-range impact of hunting on the population of sandhill cranes.The model is a simple deterministic system that embodies density-dependent rates of survival and recruitment. The model employs four kinds of data: (1) spring population size of sandhill cranes, estimated from aerial surveys to be between 250,000 and 400,000 birds; (2) age composition in fall, estimated for 1974-76 to be 11.3% young; (3) annual harvest of cranes, estimated from a variety of sources to be about 5 to 7% of the spring population; and (4) age composition of harvested cranes, which was difficult to estimate but suggests that immatures were 2 to 4 times as vulnerable to hunting as adults.Because the true nature of sandhill crane population dynamics remains so poorly understood, it was necessary to try numerous (768 in all) combinations of survival and recruitment functions, and focus on the relatively few (37) that yielded population sizes and age structures comparable to those extant in the real population. Hunting was then applied to those simulated populations. In all combinations, hunting resulted in a lower asymptotic crane population, the decline ranging from 5 to 54%. The median decline was 22%, which suggests that a hunted sandhill crane population might be about three-fourths as large as it would be if left unhunted. Results apply to the aggregate of the three subspecies in the Central Flyway; individual subspecies or populations could be affected to a greater or lesser degree.

  5. Redwoods: a population model.

    PubMed

    Bosch, C A

    1971-04-23

    The chief conclusion to be drawn from the results of this study is that redwoods are amazingly vigorous. The results support both the lumber companies and the conservationists. There is no question that old growth giant redwoods must be preserved. Only commercial greed could be a basis for refuting that stand. On the other hand, the lumber companies seem to be supported in their contention that redwoods can be farmed without driving them to extinction. The central issue revolves around the old trees. And here profit is the big factor. Lumbering is an important industry in California, and redwood lumbering represents about 20 percent of the industry (l). Most of the big names in timber, such as Weyerhaeuser and Georgia-Pacific, are involved in logging the California redwood. At the current rate of logging, particularly of old growth stands, the Bank of America estimates that employment in Humboldt County will be down significantly by 1975 (4). It has been argued that tourism would more than compensate for the lower employment in logging. But not if the trees that the tourists come to see are gone. Why can't young and mature trees be harvested at a reasonable rate, the old trees saved, and both tourism and logging flourish? The question posed earlier has been answered. Redwood growth and survival can be modeled, using matrix methods in a new context. Meaningful conclusions may be drawn. And the results are sufficiently tantalizing to inspire further research. PMID:17756034

  6. Zooplankton community responses to synthetic oil exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Hook, L.A.; Franco, P.J.; Giddings, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    The responses of microcosm and pond zooplankton communities to oil treatment were quite similar. Their close agreement lends support for using shallow-water pond microcosms as surrogates for field experiments in hazard evaluation. Changes in cladoceran densities were the most sensitive indicators of stress in the zooplankton communities. Copepods were slightly less sensitive, and rotifers were least sensitive to oil treatment. Indirect effects on populations were observed at intermediate treatment levels. The lowest treatment levels at which persistent and significant ecological changes occurred were the same in both systems. These levels were similar to the lowest observed-effect concentration (LOEC) for the Daphnia magna chronic bioassay, or approximately 30% of the D. magna 48-h LC/sub 50/. Community structure responses were generally consistent between systems; however, sensitivity for detecting oil treatment effects varied greatly among the measures of community structure. Species richness and diversity measures were not as sensitive as individual species responses. Cluster and multivariate post-clustering analyses of community similarity values reflected indirect effects and had sufficient sensitivity to allow early impact detection. An expanded principal components technique, which used both zooplankton and water quality data, was also relatively sensitive and would be applicable for routine monitoring.

  7. Optimal Foraging by Zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, Ricardo; Moss, Frank

    2007-03-01

    We describe experiments with several species of the zooplankton, Daphnia, while foraging for food. They move in sequences: hop-pause-turn-hop etc. While we have recorded hop lengths, hop times, pause times and turning angles, our focus is on histograms representing the distributions of the turning angles. We find that different species, including adults and juveniles, move with similar turning angle distributions described by exponential functions. Random walk simulations and a theory based on active Brownian particles indicate a maximum in food gathering efficiency at an optimal width of the turning angle distribution. Foraging takes place within a fixed size food patch during a fixed time. We hypothesize that the exponential distributions were selected for survival over evolutionary time scales.

  8. The zooplankton of the north sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fransz, H. G.; Colebrook, J. M.; Gamble, J. C.; Krause, M.

    This review summarizes available knowledge on herbivorous and omnivorous zooplankton of the North Sea. After an introductory chapter on history and general approach of zooplankton studies, the four main contributions review distribution patterns, cycles and trends in temporal variation, trophic interactions and population dyamics and production. The distribution of zooplankton species in relation to hydrography and origin of watermasses is described for copepods. It highlights the influence of Atlantic Ocean influx from the northwest, which to a large extent dominates the species composition and its seasonal variation in the summer-stratified waters. In contrast, the more neritic communities in the southeast region mainly depend on the local populations of the species abundant in coastal mixed waters. The chapter on cycles and trends in temporal variation discusses the differences in seasonal variation with respect to species, area, and community structure in terms of herbivores, omnivores and carnivores. The year-to-year changes are considered as dependent on the overwintering stocks and strategies. Patterns in long-term variation appearing from long-term data series are related to climatic changes, leading to two hypotheses with respect to the effects of changes in wind regime. The chapter on trophic interactions deals with the utilization of primary particulate production by planktonic herbivores and its variation in time and space. Emphasis is put on differences between north and south, which are partly due to differences in species composition, community structure and seasonal variation already discussed in foregoing chapters. The various aspects of copepod grazing are reviewed, but also the role of microzooplankton as both grazers and food organisms is brought to attention. The last chapter deals with population dynamics and production of key species. Seasonal fluctuations in abundance and biomass are discussed and related to underlying population processes and characteristics such as reproduction and life strategy, growth and development, and mortality. Secondary-production estimates inferred from biomass and growth rate estimates are discussed.

  9. Fission Models of Population Variability

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, E. A.

    1979-01-01

    Most models in population genetics are models of allele frequency, making implicit or explicit assumptions of equilibrium or constant population size. In recent papers, we have attempted to develop more appropriate models for the analysis of rare variant data in South American Indian tribes; these are branching process models for the total number of replicates of a variant allele. The spatial distribution of a variant may convey information about its history and characteristics, and this paper extends previous models to take this factor into consideration. A model of fission into subdivisions is superimposed on the previous branching process, and variation between subdivisions is considered. The case where fission is nonrandom and the locations of like alleles are initially positively associated, as would happen were a tribal cluster or village to split on familial lines, is also analyzed. The statistics developed are applied to Yanomama Indian data on rare genetic variants. Due to insufficient time depth, no definitive new inferences can be drawn, but the analysis shows that this model provides results consistent with previous conclusions, and demonstrates the general type of question that may be answered by the approach taken here. In particular, striking confirmation of a higher-than-average growth rate, and hence smaller-than-previously-estimated age, is obtained for the Yan2 serum albumen variant. PMID:535728

  10. Quantifying Preferences and Responsiveness of Marine Zooplankton to Changing Environmental Conditions using Microfluidics

    PubMed Central

    Merten, Christoph A.; Arendt, Detlev

    2015-01-01

    Global environmental change significantly affects marine species composition. However, analyzing the impact of these changes on marine zooplankton communities was so far mostly limited to assessing lethal doses through mortality assays and hence did not allow a direct assessment of the preferred conditions, or preferendum. Here, we use a microfluidic device to characterize individual behavior of actively swimming zooplankton, and to quantitatively determine their ecological preferendum. For the annelid zooplankton model Platynereis dumerilii we observe a broader pH preferendum than for the copepod Euterpina acutifrons, and reveal previously unrecognized sub-populations with different pH preferenda. For Platynereis, the minimum concentration difference required to elicit a response (responsiveness) is ~1 μM for H+ and ~13.7 mM for NaCl. Furthermore, using laser ablations we show that olfactomedin-expressing sensory cells mediate chemical responsiveness in the Platynereis foregut. Taken together, our microfluidic approach allows precise assessment and functional understanding of environmental perception on planktonic behaviour. PMID:26517120

  11. Physical control of zooplankton communities in the Catalan Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alcaraz, M.; Calbet, A.; Estrada, M.; Marrasé, C.; Saiz, E.; Trepat, I.

    2007-08-01

    The study of the response of planktonic systems to environmental variability, and particularly to differences in the intensity and frequency of mechanical energy inputs, one of the leading objectives of GLOBEC, has been an important part of the research developed in the Spanish Mediterranean over the last decades. In this review we will discuss the research conducted at different space and time scales, intended to cope with the broad space and time variability scales of plankton. The time- and space scales considered range from small- (i.e., from seconds and mm, affecting zooplankton at individual level) to meso- (weeks and tens of km) and large scales (i.e., seasonal changes in the density structure of the water column). The discussion includes laboratory research using visual observation techniques at individual level, the use of experimental micro- and mesocosms, as well as data obtained by sampling natural systems during oceanographic cruises. At the smaller scales, mechanical energy inputs produce turbulent water movements that enhance the encounter probability between zooplankton and their prey, modify their swimming behaviour (higher frequency of fast-swimming events, escape responses), increase metabolic rates and affect energetic balances. Consequently, the development of organisms is accelerated, and the size of adults significantly reduced. The changes induced by turbulence on zooplankton at individual levels modify, by cumulative processes, the characteristics of zooplankton populations and of the whole planktonic ecosystems. Such changes can be observed by using micro- and mesocosm experiments. The physical control of zooplankton communities can also be observed, even at larger scales, in the highly hydrodynamic physical structures (i.e., fronts and ergoclines) of the Catalan Sea (NW Mediterranean). In these structures mechanical energy inputs are amplified, resulting in turbulence increases that contribute to modify, from individual rate processes, the structural and functional characteristics of plankton communities and of the whole ecosystem. Mesoscale hydrographic features, particularly the Catalan and Balearic permanent density fronts and the central divergence, are important fertilization sources for the relatively productive Catalan Sea. But during summer stratification, the nutrient depletion of surface waters and the higher penetration of light allow the development of a deep phytoplankton maximum. The consequence is the formation of a deep zooplankton maximum coinciding with that of phytoplankton. The vertical migration patterns of zooplankton during summer result in significant nocturnal inputs of recycled nutrients to the surface, thus counteracting the vertical downward flux of nutrients. The spatial distribution of zooplankton biomass and metabolic rates appear to be closely related to the physical characteristics of the different hydrographic features. Similarly, the intensity and the temporal and spatial scales of variability of the structural and functional properties of zooplankton are closely linked to those of the physical structures.

  12. Body size and food size in freshwater zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Bogdan, K G; Gilbert, J J

    1984-10-01

    We used double-label liquid scintillation techniques to measure the efficiencies with which eight different-sized zooplankton species ingested four cell types relative to a standard cell type (Chlamydomonas). Efficiency ratios (ERs: clearance rate on cell type X / clearance rate on Chlamydomonas) on the three ultraplankton (<5 mum in diameter) cells (a coccoid bacterium and the algae Synechococcus and Nannochloris) varied greatly among zooplankton species but were not correlated with zooplankton body length. Variation in ERs on a much larger (17 x 14 mum) algal cell (Cryptomonas) was only partly explained by zooplankton body length. The eight zooplankton species were classified into three functional groups: (i) species having moderate to high ERs on all ultraplankton (0.4 < ER < 1.6) and ERs on Cryptomonas proportional to their body lengths (Conochilus, Diaphanosoma, and probably Keratella cochlearis and Ceriodaphnia); (ii) species having extremely low ERs on bacteria (mean ER < 0.05), higher but still low ERs on ultraphytoplankton (ER generally < 0.4), and ERs on Cryptomonas proportional to their body lengths (Bosmina, Diaptomus copepodites and adults); (iii) species having extremely low ERs on all ultraplankton (mean ER < 0.05) and ERs on Cryptomonas much higher than expected given their body lengths (Keratella crassa, Polyarthra, and Diaptomus nauplii). These functional groups follow neither taxonomic nor body-length groupings. We conclude that zooplankton body length may influence the maximal particle size a species can ingest but has little influence on the ingestion of smaller particles. Two frequently used models relating zooplankton body size and food size are unrealistic. PMID:16593521

  13. Modelling nova populations in galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Hai-Liang; Woods, T. E.; Yungelson, L. R.; Gilfanov, M.; Han, Zhanwen

    2016-02-01

    Theoretical modelling of the evolution of classical and recurrent novae plays an important role in studies of binary evolution, nucleosynthesis and accretion physics. However, from a theoretical perspective the observed statistical properties of novae remain poorly understood. In this paper, we have produced model populations of novae using a hybrid binary population synthesis approach for differing star formation histories (SFHs): a starburst case (elliptical-like galaxies), a constant star formation rate case (spiral-like galaxies) and a composite case (in line with the inferred SFH for M31). We found that the nova rate at 10 Gyr in an elliptical-like galaxy is ˜10 - 20 times smaller than a spiral-like galaxy with the same mass. The majority of novae in elliptical-like galaxies at the present epoch are characterized by low mass white dwarfs (WDs), long decay times, relatively faint absolute magnitudes and long recurrence periods. In contrast, the majority of novae in spiral-like galaxies at 10 Gyr have massive WDs, short decay times, are relatively bright and have short recurrence periods. The mass loss time distribution for novae in our M31-like galaxy is in agreement with observational data for Andromeda. However, it is possible that we underestimate the number of bright novae in our model. This may arise in part due to the present uncertainties in the appropriate bolometric correction for novae.

  14. A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milroy, Scott P.; Dieterle, Dwight A.; He, Ruoying; Kirkpatrick, Gary J.; Lester, Kristen M.; Steidinger, Karen A.; Vargo, Gabriel A.; Walsh, John J.; Weisberg, Robert H.

    2008-01-01

    The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L -1) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 210 6 cells L -1 in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 ?E m -2 s -1 isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L -1. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS.

  15. Planktivory in the changing Lake Huron zooplankton community: Bythotrephes consumption exceeds that of Mysis and fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bunnell, D.B.; Davis, B.M.; Warner, D.M.; Chriscinske, M.A.; Roseman, E.F.

    2011-01-01

    Oligotrophic lakes are generally dominated by calanoid copepods because of their competitive advantage over cladocerans at low prey densities. Planktivory also can alter zooplankton community structure. We sought to understand the role of planktivory in driving recent changes to the zooplankton community of Lake Huron, a large oligotrophic lake on the border of Canada and the United States. We tested the hypothesis that excessive predation by fish (rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, bloater Coregonus hoyi) and invertebrates (Mysis relicta, Bythotrephes longimanus) had driven observed declines in cladoceran and cyclopoid copepod biomass between 2002 and 2007. We used a field sampling and bioenergetics modelling approach to generate estimates of daily consumption by planktivores at two 91-m depth sites in northern Lake Huron, U.S.A., for each month, May-October 2007. Daily consumption was compared to daily zooplankton production. Bythotrephes was the dominant planktivore and estimated to have eaten 78% of all zooplankton consumed. Bythotrephes consumption exceeded total zooplankton production between July and October. Mysis consumed 19% of all the zooplankton consumed and exceeded zooplankton production in October. Consumption by fish was relatively unimportant - eating only 3% of all zooplankton consumed. Because Bythotrephes was so important, we explored other consumption estimation methods that predict lower Bythotrephes consumption. Under this scenario, Mysis was the most important planktivore, and Bythotrephes consumption exceeded zooplankton production only in August. Our results provide no support for the hypothesis that excessive fish consumption directly contributed to the decline of cladocerans and cyclopoid copepods in Lake Huron. Rather, they highlight the importance of invertebrate planktivores in structuring zooplankton communities, especially for those foods webs that have both Bythotrephes and Mysis. Together, these species occupy the epi-, meta- and hypolimnion, leaving limited refuge for zooplankton prey. Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  16. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the 'Testing Matrix Models' working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  17. Matrix population models from 20 studies of perennial plant populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellis, Martha M.; Williams, Jennifer L.; Lesica, Peter; Bell, Timothy J.; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Bowles, Marlin; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ehrlen, Johan; Ellis-Adam, Albertine; McEachern, Kathryn; Ganesan, Rengaian; Latham, Penelope; Luijten, Sheila; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; den Nijs, Hans; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Shelly, J. Stephen; Stanley, Amanda; Thorpe, Andrea; Tamara, Ticktin; Valverde, Teresa; Weekley, Carl W.

    2012-01-01

    Demographic transition matrices are one of the most commonly applied population models for both basic and applied ecological research. The relatively simple framework of these models and simple, easily interpretable summary statistics they produce have prompted the wide use of these models across an exceptionally broad range of taxa. Here, we provide annual transition matrices and observed stage structures/population sizes for 20 perennial plant species which have been the focal species for long-term demographic monitoring. These data were assembled as part of the "Testing Matrix Models" working group through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS). In sum, these data represent 82 populations with >460 total population-years of data. It is our hope that making these data available will help promote and improve our ability to monitor and understand plant population dynamics.

  18. ZOOPLANKTON AS A FOOD SOURCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    While thousands of zooplankton species could potentially serve as food for larval stages of cultured fish and crustaceans, the aquaculturists practical choice of a reproducible live food ratio is quite limited. In practice, rotifers and brine shrimp are the most commonly used zoo...

  19. Distribution and feeding of Benthosema glaciale in the western Labrador Sea: Fish-zooplankton interaction and the consequence to calanoid copepod populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pepin, Pierre

    2013-05-01

    This study evaluated the distribution of major calanoid copepods in the western Labrador Sea in relation to that of the myctophid Benthosema glaciale, and investigated patterns of prey composition and feeding periodicity by the latter to assess the potential impact of mesopelagic fish on copepod populations that reside in the deep ocean. Hydroacoustic surveys indicated that B. glaciale and the deep-scattering layer are widely distributed throughout the region with limited evidence of patchiness, with an average abundance of 6 fish m-2 and biomass of 9.3 g m-2. There was clear evidence of diurnal variations in feeding activity that was achieved through vertical migration from several hundred meters depths to the surface layer. B. glaciale fed principally on calanoid copepods, with prey size dependent on the length of the fish but the relative variability in prey size was independent of predator length. Average rations were generally less than 1% of body weight per day, and the patterns of diurnal vertical migration by myctophids suggest that individuals fed once every two days rather than daily. The estimated mortality caused by B. glaciale on the calanoid populations, which considers most sources of uncertainty, ranged from 0.002 to 1.8% d-1, with the mid-point of these estimates being 0.15% d-1, which is well below the estimated mortality rates of 10-20% d-1 based on vertical life tables. From observations from this and other ecosystems, understanding and contrasting the drivers of population dynamics and productivity of calanoid copepods in different deep basins of the North Atlantic will likely require a more comprehensive characterization of the plankton and pelagic and oceanic fish faunas of the epipelagic and mesopelagic zones and their trophic relationships and interactions.

  20. Zooplankton Distribution in Four Western Norwegian Fjords

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorsky, G.; Flood, P. R.; Youngbluth, M.; Picheral, M.; Grisoni, J.-M.

    2000-01-01

    A multi-instrumental array constructed in the Laboratoire d'Ecologie du Plancton Marin in Villefranche sur mer, France, named the Underwater Video Profiler (UVP), was used to investigate the vertical distribution of zooplankton in four western Norwegian fjords in the summer 1996. Six distinct zoological groups were monitored. The fauna included: (a) small crustaceans (mainly copepods), (b) ctenophores (mainly lobates), (c) siphonophores (mainly physonects), (d) a scyphomedusa Periphylla periphylla, (e) chaetognaths and (f) appendicularians. The use of the non-disturbing video technique demonstrated that the distribution of large zooplankton is heterogeneous vertically and geographically. Furthermore, the abundance of non-migrating filter feeders in the deep basins of the fjords indicates that there is enough food (living and non-living particulate organic matter) to support their dietary needs. This adaptation may be considered as a strategy for survival in fjords. Specifically, living in dark, deep water reduces visual predation and population loss encountered in the upper layer due to advective processes.

  1. Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Quéré, C.; Buitenhuis, E. T.; Moriarty, R.; Alvain, S.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Chollet, S.; Enright, C.; Franklin, D. J.; Geider, R. J.; Harrison, S. P.; Hirst, A.; Larsen, S.; Legendre, L.; Platt, T.; Prentice, I. C.; Rivkin, R. B.; Sathyendranath, S.; Stephens, N.; Vogt, M.; Sailley, S.; Vallina, S. M.

    2015-07-01

    Global ocean biogeochemistry models currently employed in climate change projections use highly simplified representations of pelagic food webs. These food webs do not necessarily include critical pathways by which ecosystems interact with ocean biogeochemistry and climate. Here we present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types (PFTs); six types of phytoplankton, three types of zooplankton, and heterotrophic bacteria. We improved the representation of zooplankton dynamics in our model through (a) the explicit inclusion of large, slow-growing zooplankton, and (b) the introduction of trophic cascades among the three zooplankton types. We use the model to quantitatively assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region during summer. When model simulations do not represent crustacean macrozooplankton grazing, they systematically overestimate Southern Ocean chlorophyll biomass during the summer, even when there was no iron deposition from dust. When model simulations included the developments of the zooplankton component, the simulation of phytoplankton biomass improved and the high chlorophyll summer bias in the Southern Ocean HNLC region largely disappeared. Our model results suggest that the observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community rather than iron limitation. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean.

  2. Does dispersal limitation impact the recovery of zooplankton communities damaged by a regional stressor?

    PubMed

    Gray, Derek K; Arnott, Shelley E

    2011-06-01

    The acidification and ongoing pH recovery of lakes in Killarney Provincial Park, Canada, provide a unique opportunity to increase our understanding of the role of dispersal as communities respond to environmental change. Time lags in community recovery following pH increases in acidified lakes have typically been attributed to local factors; however, no studies have been conducted to determine if colonist availability could also play a role. Moreover, the rates and mechanisms of dispersal to recovering lakes are poorly understood. In this study, we sought to determine if dispersal limitation could impede the recovery of zooplankton communities affected by a regional stressor. To achieve this objective, we used a combination of empirical data collection along with spatial modeling and variation partitioning techniques. Data were collected by measuring dispersal to four recovering lakes in Killarney Park. Dispersal traps were placed next to lakes to measure immigration overland, drift nets were used to measure immigration via streams, and in situ emergence traps were used to quantify immigration from historically deposited resting eggs. Documented dispersal levels were then compared with the theoretical critical density required for reproduction (N(c)) to determine if adequate numbers were dispersing to establish populations of acid-sensitive species in recovering lakes. Spatial modeling and variation partitioning were conducted using community and physical/chemical data for 45 park lakes that were collected in 1972-1973, 1990, and 2005. Field data demonstrated that a variety of zooplankton species were dispersing to recovering lakes through streams and the egg bank, but few individuals were collected dispersing overland. Although we identified 24 species of zooplankton dispersing, only six species absent from the communities of our study lakes were identified from our traps, and two of these species did not disperse in high enough numbers to surpass N(c). Local environmental variables explained the largest proportion of the variation in zooplankton communities (18-37%); however, spatial variables were also important (7-18%). The significant spatial patterns we found in the park's zooplankton communities, combined with the low overland dispersal levels we documented, suggest that dispersal limitation may be a more important impediment to recovery than was previously thought. PMID:21774427

  3. Modeling population dynamics: A quantile approach.

    PubMed

    Chavas, Jean-Paul

    2015-04-01

    The paper investigates the modeling of population dynamics, both conceptually and empirically. It presents a reduced form representation that provides a flexible characterization of population dynamics. It leads to the specification of a threshold quantile autoregression (TQAR) model, which captures nonlinear dynamics by allowing lag effects to vary across quantiles of the distribution as well as with previous population levels. The usefulness of the model is illustrated in an application to the dynamics of lynx population. We find statistical evidence that the quantile autoregression parameters vary across quantiles (thus rejecting the AR model as well as the TAR model) as well as with past populations (thus rejecting the quantile autoregression QAR model). The results document the nature of dynamics and cycle in the lynx population over time. They show how both the period of the cycle and the speed of population adjustment vary with population level and environmental conditions. PMID:25661501

  4. Resurrecting the ghost of competition past with dormant zooplankton eggs.

    PubMed

    Steiner, Christopher F; Cceres, Carla E; Smith, Sigrid D P

    2007-03-01

    A common prediction of evolutionary theory is that the strength of interspecific competition should decline over time among sympatric populations of competing species. Here we provide experimental evidence of historical declines in competition effects among competing zooplankton populations. Using diapausing eggs, we resurrected clones of three species of zooplankton obtained from different periods of community assembly in a single lake. We show that clones of Daphnia ambigua obtained from early in assembly when D. ambigua was dominant became extinct in competition with clones of Daphnia pulicaria and Daphnia dentifera (the current lake dominants). In contrast, D. ambigua clones obtained from later in the lake's history experienced weaker competition effects and persisted with D. dentifera. While we cannot rule out the role of intraspecific competition within D. ambigua, our results are in line with the view that natural selection favors reduced interaction strength among co-occurring species, facilitating coexistence and population persistence. PMID:17238127

  5. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  6. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  7. Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor

    2015-01-01

    Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.

  8. A 15-month study of zooplankton ingestion by farmed mussels ( Mytilus edulis) in Bantry Bay, Southwest Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehane, Clare; Davenport, John

    2006-05-01

    There is a growing body of evidence to suggest that bivalve molluscs routinely ingest zooplankton. To elucidate further these observations, a 15-month study of zooplankton ingestion by farmed mussels was conducted using mussel long-lines in Bantry Bay, Ireland. Stomach content analysis of the mussels showed that there was evidence of zooplankton ingestion throughout the sampling period, but that highest mean numbers of zooplankters were ingested by mussels in the spring and summer months. Various zooplankton species were present in mussel stomachs. Harpacticoid copepods were found more often in stomach contents than calanoid copepods, probably due to their proximity to the bivalves' inhalent siphons. Barnacle cyprids featured in large numbers in stomach contents, but only for a period of 3 months which broadly corresponded with their pelagic phase. Sizes of ingested zooplankton ranged from 126 μm to 6 mm, but more of the smaller zooplankters (e.g. crustacean nauplii) were ingested. When lengths of ingested copepods were compared with those found in plankton net samples, it was found that the net-sampled copepods were significantly larger than those found in mussel stomachs, suggesting that mussels select for smaller categories within the zooplankton available to them. Soft bodied zooplankton was rarely found in mussel stomachs but their absence may be due to rapid digestion or they may have been destroyed in the preservation process. Ingestion of zooplankton by bivalves is discussed in the context of the impacts mussel farms have on resident zooplankton populations.

  9. Modelling population change from time series data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barker, R.J.; Sauer, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Information on change in population size over time is among the most basic inputs for population management. Unfortunately, population changes are generally difficult to identify, and once identified difficult to explain. Sources of variald (patterns) in population data include: changes in environment that affect carrying capaciyy and produce trend, autocorrelative processes, irregular environmentally induced perturbations, and stochasticity arising from population processes. In addition. populations are almost never censused and many surveys (e.g., the North American Breeding Bird Survey) produce multiple, incomplete time series of population indices, providing further sampling complications. We suggest that each source of pattern should be used to address specific hypotheses regarding population change, but that failure to correctly model each source can lead to false conclusions about the dynamics of populations. We consider hypothesis tests based on each source of pattern, and the effects of autocorrelated observations and sampling error. We identify important constraints on analyses of time series that limit their use in identifying underlying relationships.

  10. Accumulation and cycling of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Berrojalbiz, Naiara; Lacorte, Silvia; Calbet, Albert; Saiz, Enric; Barata, Carlos; Dachs, Jordi

    2009-04-01

    Planktonic food webs play an important role driving the environmental fate of persistent organic pollutants, and POP accumulation in phytoplankton has been previously studied for its importance as a first step in the aquatic food webs. However, little is known about the accumulation and cycling of organic pollutants between zooplankton and water. The present study shows the results of laboratory experiments on the bioconcentration (by passive uptake) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in phytoplankton (Rhodomonas salina) and accumulation in copepods (Paracartia(acartia) granm), by ingestion and diffusion. Both bioconcentration (BCF) and bioaccumulation (BAF) factors show significant correlation with the octanol-water partition coefficient (Kow) for phytoplankton and zooplankton. The BCF values for phytoplankton were 2 orders of magnitude higher than those for copepods. The analysis of fecal pellets shows that elimination by defecation is mainly significant for PAHs taken up from ingested phytoplankton but not due to passive uptake. However, the dominant elimination mechanisms are by far metabolism and diffusive depuration. Indeed, the mass balance suggests that metabolism of PAHs by copepods is a significant process that could play a role in the fate of PAHs in the water column. Uptake, depuration, eggestion, and ingestion rates increased with hydrophobicity of the chemical, while the metabolism rate was slightly higher for the less hydrophobic compounds. Passive partitioning dominated the accumulation of POPs in zooplankton. The derivation of all the uptake and loss rate constants for PAHs opens the doorto future modeling studies of the role of zooplankton in PAH cycling in the marine environment. PMID:19452877

  11. Habitat Heterogeneity Determines Climate Impact on Zooplankton Community Structure and Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Otto, Saskia A.; Diekmann, Rabea; Flinkman, Juha; Kornilovs, Georgs; Mllmann, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting species distribution in space and time and consequently community structure and dynamics is an important issue in ecology, and particularly in climate change research. A crucial factor determining the composition and dynamics of animal populations is habitat heterogeneity, i.e., the number of structural elements in a given locality. In the marine pelagic environment habitat heterogeneity is represented by the distribution of physical oceanographic parameters such as temperature, salinity and oxygen that are closely linked to atmospheric conditions. Little attention has been given, however, to the role of habitat heterogeneity in modulating the response of animal communities to external climate forcing. Here we investigate the long-term dynamics of Acartia spp., Temora longicornis, and Pseudocalanus acuspes, three dominant zooplankton species inhabiting different pelagic habitats in the Central Baltic Sea (CBS). We use the three copepods as indicator species for changes in the CBS zooplankton community and apply non-linear statistical modeling techniques to compare spatial population trends and to identify their drivers. We demonstrate that effects of climate variability and change depend strongly on species-specific habitat utilization, being more direct and pronounced at the upper water layer. We propose that the differential functional response to climate-related drivers in relation to strong habitat segregation is due to alterations of the species environmental niches. We stress the importance of understanding how anticipated climate change will affect ecological niches and habitats in order to project spatio-temporal changes in species abundance and distribution. PMID:24614110

  12. Habitat heterogeneity determines climate impact on zooplankton community structure and dynamics.

    PubMed

    Otto, Saskia A; Diekmann, Rabea; Flinkman, Juha; Kornilovs, Georgs; Mllmann, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting species distribution in space and time and consequently community structure and dynamics is an important issue in ecology, and particularly in climate change research. A crucial factor determining the composition and dynamics of animal populations is habitat heterogeneity, i.e., the number of structural elements in a given locality. In the marine pelagic environment habitat heterogeneity is represented by the distribution of physical oceanographic parameters such as temperature, salinity and oxygen that are closely linked to atmospheric conditions. Little attention has been given, however, to the role of habitat heterogeneity in modulating the response of animal communities to external climate forcing. Here we investigate the long-term dynamics of Acartia spp., Temora longicornis, and Pseudocalanus acuspes, three dominant zooplankton species inhabiting different pelagic habitats in the Central Baltic Sea (CBS). We use the three copepods as indicator species for changes in the CBS zooplankton community and apply non-linear statistical modeling techniques to compare spatial population trends and to identify their drivers. We demonstrate that effects of climate variability and change depend strongly on species-specific habitat utilization, being more direct and pronounced at the upper water layer. We propose that the differential functional response to climate-related drivers in relation to strong habitat segregation is due to alterations of the species' environmental niches. We stress the importance of understanding how anticipated climate change will affect ecological niches and habitats in order to project spatio-temporal changes in species abundance and distribution. PMID:24614110

  13. Modeling wildlife populations with HexSim

    EPA Science Inventory

    HexSim is a framework for constructing spatially-explicit, individual-based computer models designed for simulating terrestrial wildlife population dynamics and interactions. HexSim is useful for a broad set of modeling applications including population viability analysis for on...

  14. POPULATION MODELS IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  15. Population Modelling with M&M's[R

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Several activities in which population dynamics can be modelled by tossing M&M's[R] candy are presented. Physical activities involving M&M's[R] can be modelled by difference equations and several population phenomena, including death and immigration, are studied. (Contains 1 note.)

  16. Population Genetics Models of Local Ancestry

    PubMed Central

    Gravel, Simon

    2012-01-01

    Migrations have played an important role in shaping the genetic diversity of human populations. Understanding genomic data thus requires careful modeling of historical gene flow. Here we consider the effect of relatively recent population structure and gene flow and interpret genomes of individuals that have ancestry from multiple source populations as mosaics of segments originating from each population. This article describes general and tractable models for local ancestry patterns with a focus on the length distribution of continuous ancestry tracts and the variance in total ancestry proportions among individuals. The models offer improved agreement with WrightFisher simulation data when compared to the state-of-the art and can be used to infer time-dependent migration rates from multiple populations. Considering HapMap African-American (ASW) data, we find that a model with two distinct phases of European gene flow significantly improves the modeling of both tract lengths and ancestry variances. PMID:22491189

  17. Calvert Cliffs zooplankton entrainment study. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Bradley, B.P.

    1980-01-01

    Entrainment studies to evaluate plant effects on zooplankton were conducted at the Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Plant. Specific effects tested were (a) the spatial and temporal variation of zooplankton density; (b) pump sampling efficiency; (c) delayed mortality; (d) vital staining as an indicator of mortality.

  18. Zooplankton data: Vertical distributions of zooplankton in the Norweigian and Greenland Seas during summer, 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Lane, P.V.Z.; Smith, S.L.; Schwarting, E.M.

    1993-08-01

    Recent studies of zooplankton populations in the Greenland Sea have focused on processes at the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) and the areas immediately adjacent to it under the ice and in open water. These studies have shown a relatively short period of intense secondary productivity which is closely linked temporally and spatially to phytoplankton blooms occurring near the ice edge in spring and early summer. During the summer of 1989 we participated in a project focusing on benthic and water column processes in the basins of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas. This study allowed us to compare biological processes at the MIZ with those occurring in the open waters of the Greenland Sea, and to compare processes at both of these locations with those in the Norwegian Sea. The data presented in this report are the results of zooplankton net tows covering the upper 1000 meters of the water column over the Norwegian Sea basin and the Greenland Sea basin, and the upper 500 meters of open water adjacent to the MIZ in the Greenland Sea. Sampling was conducted between 12 and 29 July 1989.

  19. Zooplankton data report: Winter MIZEX, 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S.L.; Lane, P.V.Z.; Schwartling, E.M.; Beck, B.

    1988-12-01

    The Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX) was an interdisciplinary, international Arctic research program designed to study the atmospheric, oceanic, and ice interactions in the Fram Strait region of the Greenland Sea. This report focuses on zooplankton data collected during the winter MIZEX program of 1987. The primary objectives of our group during MIZEX 87 were to study the distribution of zooplankton species in relation to the ice-edge, the Polar Front, and the mesoscale eddy field, and to study zooplanktonic physiology just prior to the spring phytoplankton bloom. The data in this report are quantitative analyses of zooplankton samples collected while aboard the research vessel HAKON MOSBY during MIZEX 87. This is the third in a series of data reports on zooplankton collected in the Fram Strait region during the MIZEX project. A complete catalog of the reports generated from the MIZEX program is archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, USA. 1 ref., 3 tabs.

  20. Zooplankton community changes confound the biodilution theory of methylmercury accumulation in a recovering mercury-contaminated lake.

    PubMed

    Todorova, Svetoslava; Driscoll, Charles T; Matthews, David A; Effler, Steven W

    2015-04-01

    In this study, the biodilution hypothesis of methylmercury (MeHg) accumulation was examined in a Hg-contaminated ecosystem that has undergone concurrent changes in nutrient loading and zooplankton community composition. Using a long-term record of 17 years (between 1980 and 2009), we demonstrate that zooplankton MeHg concentrations in Onondaga Lake, NY, are strongly driven by changes in the zooplankton community and body size. MeHg concentrations in zooplankton increased with an increase in body size and biomass. The highest concentrations of MeHg were observed under eutrophic and hypereutrophic conditions when large-bodied Daphnia species, Daphnia pulicaria and Daphnia galeata mendotae, were present. Bioconcentration rather than biodilution was governing the accumulation of MeHg in zooplankton without apparent growth dilution or zooplankton biomass dilution. Algal-bloom dilution controlled the variability in the MeHg concentration only under hypereutrophic conditions when Ceriodaphnia predominated the cladoceran population. Our study demonstrates that changes in zooplankton community composition confound the biodilution theory in Onondaga Lake and that the presence of large-bodied zooplankton species drives elevated MeHg concentrations. PMID:25741879

  1. Element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Daniel

    2015-08-01

    The chemical element abundance ratios in the stellar populations of galaxies can be used not only to constrain the chemical enrichment histories of galaxies, but also provide a powerful tool for the derivation of the timescales over which their stars were formed. I will review methods to derive element ratios for unresolved stellar populations from stellar population modelling, and discuss implications from the measured chemistry of galaxies for galaxy formation theory.

  2. A simplified model of spatiotemporal population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Puu, T

    1985-09-01

    This paper is an extension of the model of population growth and migration originally developed by H. Hotelling in 1921. This model consists of two ingredients, a logistic growth function and a linear spatial diffusion term. The author notes that the saturation population can be affected by the development of new technology and that improvements in transportation have increased the possibilities for migration. "Basic nonlinearities are introduced by use of a production technology with increasing-decreasing returns to scale. It is demonstrated how industrial takeoffs, population transitions, and agglomerative spatial patterns can emerge by changing the model parameters." PMID:12267309

  3. Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models.

    PubMed

    Pierson, Jennifer C; Beissinger, Steven R; Bragg, Jason G; Coates, David J; Oostermeijer, J Gerard B; Sunnucks, Paul; Schumaker, Nathan H; Trotter, Meredith V; Young, Andrew G

    2015-06-01

    We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. PMID:25494697

  4. Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Kvile, Kristina Ø; Langangen, Øystein; Prokopchuk, Irina; Stenseth, Nils C; Stige, Leif C

    2016-02-16

    Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach. PMID:26831099

  5. Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Kvile, Kristina Ø.; Langangen, Øystein; Prokopchuk, Irina; Stenseth, Nils C.; Stige, Leif C.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach. PMID:26831099

  6. The Career Counseling with Underserved Populations Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pope, Mark

    2011-01-01

    Providing effective career counseling to culturally diverse individuals is not the same as helping those from majority cultures. The Career Counseling With Underserved Populations model aids career counselors in supporting underserved populations as they strive to address their important career counseling issues.

  7. A Population Health Model for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pitcher, Hugh M.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents the initial results of a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios to include population health status.

  8. Ecosystem model-based approach for modelling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belharet, M.; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2015-06-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of uptake from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the some data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about two to four orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 10-2 ?Gy h-1, and was, therefore, lower than the 10 ?Gy h-1 benchmark value defined in the ERICA assessment approach from which a measurable effect on the marine biota can be observed.

  9. Fluctuations in a coupled population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jakeman, E.; Hopcraft, K. I.; Matthews, J. O.

    2005-07-01

    We investigate a discrete Markov process in which the immigration of individuals into one population is controlled by the fluctuations in another. We examine the effect of coupling back the second population to the first through a similar mechanism and derive exact solutions for the generating functions of the population statistics. We show that a stationary state exists over a certain parameter range and obtain expressions for moments and correlation functions in this regime. When more than two populations are coupled, cyclically transient oscillations and periodic behaviour of correlation functions are predicted. We demonstrate that if the initial distribution of either population is stable, or more generally has a power-law tail that falls off like N-(1+?) (0 < ? < 1), then for certain parameter values there exists a stationary state that is also power law but not stable. This stationary state cannot be accessed from a single multiple immigrant population model, but arises solely from the nonlinear interaction of the coupled system.

  10. Effect of advection on variations in zooplankton at a single location near Cabo Nazca, Peru

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S L; Brink, K H; Santander, H; Cowles, T J; Huyer, A

    1980-04-01

    Temporal variations in the biomass and species composition of zooplankton at a single midshelf station in an upwelling area off Peru can be explained to a large extent by onshore-offshore advection in the upper 20 m of the water column. During periods of strong or sustained near-surface onshore flow, peaks in biomass of zooplankton were observed at midshelf and typically oceanic species of copepod were collected. In periods of offshore flow at the surface, a copepod capable of migrating into oxygen-depleted layers deeper than 30 m was collected. A simple translocation model of advection applied to the cross-shelf distribution of Paracalanus parvus suggests that the fluctuations in P. pavus observed in the midshelf time-series were closely related to onshore-offshore flow in the upper 20 m. Fluctuations in abundance of the numerically dominant copepod, Acartia tonsa, were apparently affected by near surface flow also. The population age-structure suggests that A. tonsa was growing at maximal rates, due in part to its positive feeding response to the dinoflagellate/diatom assemblage of phytoplankton.

  11. Modeling Small Stellar Populations Using Starburst99

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vazquez, Gerardo Arturo; Leitherer, Claus

    2015-08-01

    Stellar populations synthesis models have proven to be excellent tools to learn about galaxy evolution. However, modeling small stellar populations (lower than 105 M?) has been an intriguing and continuous to be a field of intensive research. In this work, we have developed a new approach to form stars from clusters first, where massive stars are formed from fractions of mass of small stellar clusters. This new approximation is based on the empirical power law (mc-2) for the mass function of clusters between 20-1100 M? found in recent years and the maximum stellar mass that can be formed in a cluster. Incorporating this new approach to form clusters has made us upgrade the way we integrate the stellar properties and the way that the isochrone is produced with a new technique. To produce the new models we have used the most recent version of Starburst99 that incorporates the most recent stellar evolution models with rotation. On the verge of solving nearby stellar populations and observing small stellar populations across the universe, this new approach brings a new scope on trying to disentangle the nature of hyper and supermassive stars in small stellar populations. In this work we present this new approach and the results when these models are applied to very energetic stellar populations such as the cluster in NGC 3603. Our most important result is that we have modeled the ionizing power of this cluster and some others by forming enough supermassive stars in a cluster of ~104 M?.

  12. Population-expression models of immune response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stromberg, Sean P.; Antia, Rustom; Nemenman, Ilya

    2013-06-01

    The immune response to a pathogen has two basic features. The first is the expansion of a few pathogen-specific cells to form a population large enough to control the pathogen. The second is the process of differentiation of cells from an initial naive phenotype to an effector phenotype which controls the pathogen, and subsequently to a memory phenotype that is maintained and responsible for long-term protection. The expansion and the differentiation have been considered largely independently. Changes in cell populations are typically described using ecologically based ordinary differential equation models. In contrast, differentiation of single cells is studied within systems biology and is frequently modeled by considering changes in gene and protein expression in individual cells. Recent advances in experimental systems biology make available for the first time data to allow the coupling of population and high dimensional expression data of immune cells during infections. Here we describe and develop population-expression models which integrate these two processes into systems biology on the multicellular level. When translated into mathematical equations, these models result in non-conservative, non-local advection-diffusion equations. We describe situations where the population-expression approach can make correct inference from data while previous modeling approaches based on common simplifying assumptions would fail. We also explore how model reduction techniques can be used to build population-expression models, minimizing the complexity of the model while keeping the essential features of the system. While we consider problems in immunology in this paper, we expect population-expression models to be more broadly applicable.

  13. Next Generation Sequencing Reveals the Hidden Diversity of Zooplankton Assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Harmer, Rachel A.; Somerfield, Paul J.; Atkinson, Angus

    2013-01-01

    Background Zooplankton play an important role in our oceans, in biogeochemical cycling and providing a food source for commercially important fish larvae. However, difficulties in correctly identifying zooplankton hinder our understanding of their roles in marine ecosystem functioning, and can prevent detection of long term changes in their community structure. The advent of massively parallel next generation sequencing technology allows DNA sequence data to be recovered directly from whole community samples. Here we assess the ability of such sequencing to quantify richness and diversity of a mixed zooplankton assemblage from a productive time series site in the Western English Channel. Methodology/Principle Findings Plankton net hauls (200 m) were taken at the Western Channel Observatory station L4 in September 2010 and January 2011. These samples were analysed by microscopy and metagenetic analysis of the 18S nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene using the 454 pyrosequencing platform. Following quality control a total of 419,041 sequences were obtained for all samples. The sequences clustered into 205 operational taxonomic units using a 97% similarity cut-off. Allocation of taxonomy by comparison with the National Centre for Biotechnology Information database identified 135 OTUs to species level, 11 to genus level and 1 to order, <2.5% of sequences were classified as unknowns. By comparison a skilled microscopic analyst was able to routinely enumerate only 58 taxonomic groups. Conclusions Metagenetics reveals a previously hidden taxonomic richness, especially for Copepoda and hard-to-identify meroplankton such as Bivalvia, Gastropoda and Polychaeta. It also reveals rare species and parasites. We conclude that Next Generation Sequencing of 18S amplicons is a powerful tool for elucidating the true diversity and species richness of zooplankton communities. While this approach allows for broad diversity assessments of plankton it may become increasingly attractive in future if sequence reference libraries of accurately identified individuals are better populated. PMID:24244737

  14. Design issues for population growth models

    PubMed Central

    Lpez Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodrguez, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244

  15. Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

    2014-11-01

    An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

  16. FUNCTIONAL BIOASSAYS UTILIZING ZOOPLANKTON: A COMPARISON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Functional zooplankton bioassays based on ingestion, reproduction and respiration are described, with methods for a new ingestion bioassay included. ll bioassays are compared using three indices, including the variability of controls, the range of experimental responses, and a li...

  17. "Trophic overyielding": phytoplankton diversity promotes zooplankton productivity.

    PubMed

    Striebel, Maren; Singer, Gabriel; Stibor, Herwig; Andersen, Tom

    2012-12-01

    Diversity-productivity relationships at the primary producer level have been extensively studied, especially for terrestrial systems. Here, we explore whether the diversity of aquatic primary producers (phytoplankton) has effects on higher trophic levels (zooplankton). We investigated the effect of phytoplankton diversity on an artificial zooplankton community in a laboratory experiment where phytoplankton biomass and elemental composition (carbon-to-phosphorus ratio) were kept constant. Phytoplankton diversity increased the means of both zooplankton growth rate and abundance while suppressing their variability, and sustained higher zooplankton diversity. Likely explanations include resource complementarity effects among phytoplankton species as food entities, as well as niche complementarity effects among Daphnia species as competitors. By affecting the productivity as well as the variability of the next trophic level, biodiversity of primary producers may have far-reaching consequences in aquatic food webs. PMID:23431601

  18. Melatonin signaling controls circadian swimming behavior in marine zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Tosches, Maria Antonietta; Bucher, Daniel; Vopalensky, Pavel; Arendt, Detlev

    2014-09-25

    Melatonin, the "hormone of darkness," is a key regulator of vertebrate circadian physiology and behavior. Despite its ubiquitous presence in Metazoa, the function of melatonin signaling outside vertebrates is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the effect of melatonin signaling on circadian swimming behavior in a zooplankton model, the marine annelid Platynereis dumerilii. We find that melatonin is produced in brain photoreceptors with a vertebrate-type opsin-based phototransduction cascade and a light-entrained clock. Melatonin released at night induces rhythmic burst firing of cholinergic neurons that innervate locomotor-ciliated cells. This establishes a nocturnal behavioral state by modulating the length and the frequency of ciliary arrests. Based on our findings, we propose that melatonin signaling plays a role in the circadian control of ciliary swimming to adjust the vertical position of zooplankton in response to ambient light. PMID:25259919

  19. Melatonin Signaling Controls Circadian Swimming Behavior in Marine Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Tosches, Maria Antonietta; Bucher, Daniel; Vopalensky, Pavel; Arendt, Detlev

    2014-01-01

    Summary Melatonin, the “hormone of darkness,” is a key regulator of vertebrate circadian physiology and behavior. Despite its ubiquitous presence in Metazoa, the function of melatonin signaling outside vertebrates is poorly understood. Here, we investigate the effect of melatonin signaling on circadian swimming behavior in a zooplankton model, the marine annelid Platynereis dumerilii. We find that melatonin is produced in brain photoreceptors with a vertebrate-type opsin-based phototransduction cascade and a light-entrained clock. Melatonin released at night induces rhythmic burst firing of cholinergic neurons that innervate locomotor-ciliated cells. This establishes a nocturnal behavioral state by modulating the length and the frequency of ciliary arrests. Based on our findings, we propose that melatonin signaling plays a role in the circadian control of ciliary swimming to adjust the vertical position of zooplankton in response to ambient light. PMID:25259919

  20. Cell population modelling of yeast glycolytic oscillations.

    PubMed Central

    Henson, Michael A; Mller, Dirk; Reuss, Matthias

    2002-01-01

    We investigated a cell-population modelling technique in which the population is constructed from an ensemble of individual cell models. The average value or the number distribution of any intracellular property captured by the individual cell model can be calculated by simulation of a sufficient number of individual cells. The proposed method is applied to a simple model of yeast glycolytic oscillations where synchronization of the cell population is mediated by the action of an excreted metabolite. We show that smooth one-dimensional distributions can be obtained with ensembles comprising 1000 individual cells. Random variations in the state and/or structure of individual cells are shown to produce complex dynamic behaviours which cannot be adequately captured by small ensembles. PMID:12206713

  1. PM POPULATION EXPOSURE AND DOSE MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The overall objective of this study is the development of a refined probabilistic exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) suitable for predicting PM10 and PM2.5 population exposures. This modeling research will be conducted both in-house by EPA scientists and through...

  2. Spatial effects in discrete generation population models.

    PubMed

    Carrillo, C; Fife, P

    2005-02-01

    A framework is developed for constructing a large class of discrete generation, continuous space models of evolving single species populations and finding their bifurcating patterned spatial distributions. Our models involve, in separate stages, the spatial redistribution (through movement laws) and local regulation of the population; and the fundamental properties of these events in a homogeneous environment are found. Emphasis is placed on the interaction of migrating individuals with the existing population through conspecific attraction (or repulsion), as well as on random dispersion. The nature of the competition of these two effects in a linearized scenario is clarified. The bifurcation of stationary spatially patterned population distributions is studied, with special attention given to the role played by that competition. PMID:15480674

  3. Evidences for influence of a heterotrophic dinoflagellate ( Noctiluca scintillans) on zooplankton community structure in a highly stratified basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Y?lmaz, ?. Noyan; Okus&,cedil; Erdo?an; Yksek, Ahsen

    2005-08-01

    Variations in mesozooplankton diversity, community structure, and species assemblage related to environmental variability have been discussed regarding the Sea of Marmara, with particular attention to regulation by the holozoic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans. Temperature stands alone as the most important factor affecting species succession and community structure while Noctiluca significantly influences zooplankton abundance and diversity, and appears as the prevailing factor for non-temperature dependent patterns in the zooplankton community. Competition between Marmara zooplankton and Noctiluca for the same food resources could be an important factor, considering the high production of the species when compared to herbivorous and omnivorous zooplankters. Meanwhile, chlorophyll a recorded throughout the study period indicated a sufficient food supply that could promote continuous mesozooplankton production in the region. Therefore top-down regulation of the zooplankton community by Noctiluca may gain importance. Noctiluca differed from other r-strategists mainly by its high competitive ability, year round occurrence, and large cell size. Therefore, zooplankton could not compete with Noctiluca in the long-term and Noctiluca found an opportunity to increase its abundance before the settlement of distinct summer or winter communities. Enhanced abundance, year-round occurrence, and high condition of Noctiluca population indicated that optimum conditions had been achieved for explosive development of the species in the Sea of Marmara. Increasing dominance of Noctiluca in the Sea of Marmara points out that the species could have a stronger affect on zooplankton in the following years and interrupt trophic pathways by reducing fodder zooplankton biomass.

  4. Bayesian population modeling of drug dosing adherence.

    PubMed

    Fellows, Kelly; Stoneking, Colin J; Ramanathan, Murali

    2015-10-01

    Adherence is a frequent contributing factor to variations in drug concentrations and efficacy. The purpose of this work was to develop an integrated population model to describe variation in adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence to dosing regimens. The hybrid Markov chain-von Mises method for modeling adherence in individual subjects was extended to the population setting using a Bayesian approach. Four integrated population models for overall adherence, the two-state Markov chain transition parameters, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were formulated and critically compared. The Markov chain-Monte Carlo algorithm was used for identifying distribution parameters and for simulations. The model was challenged with medication event monitoring system data for 207 hypertension patients. The four Bayesian models demonstrated good mixing and convergence characteristics. The distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence were markedly non-normal and diverse. The models varied in complexity and the method used to incorporate inter-dependence with the preceding dose in the two-state Markov chain. The model that incorporated a cooperativity term for inter-dependence and a hyperbolic parameterization of the transition matrix probabilities was identified as the preferred model over the alternatives. The simulated probability densities from the model satisfactorily fit the observed probability distributions of adherence, dose-timing deviations, overdosing and persistence parameters in the sample patients. The model also adequately described the median and observed quartiles for these parameters. The Bayesian model for adherence provides a parsimonious, yet integrated, description of adherence in populations. It may find potential applications in clinical trial simulations and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling. PMID:26319548

  5. Effects of the ``Amoco Cadiz'' oil spill on zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samain, J. F.; Moal, J.; Coum, A.; Le Coz, J. R.; Daniel, J. Y.

    1980-03-01

    A survey of zooplankton physiology on the northern coast of Brittany (France) was carried out over a one-year period by comparing two estuarine areas, one oil-polluted area (Aber Benoit) following the oil spill by the tanker Amoco Cadiz and one non-oil-polluted area (Rade de Brest). A new approach to an ecological survey was made by describing trophic relationships using analysis of digestive enzyme equipment (amylase and trypsin) of zooplankton organisms, mesoplankton populations and some selected species. These measurements allowed determination of (a) groups of populations with homogeneous trophic and faunistic characteristics and (b) groups of species with homogeneous trophic characteristics. The study of the appearance of these groups over a one-year period revealed the succession of populations and their adaptation to the environment on the basis of biochemical analysis. These phenomena observed in the compared areas showed marked differences in the most polluted areas during the productive spring period. Specific treatment of the data using unusual correlations between digestive enzymes is discussed in terms of the immediate effect on the whole population and on a copepod ( Anomalocera patersoni) living in the upper 10 cm.

  6. A population model of integrative cardiovascular physiology.

    PubMed

    Pruett, William A; Husband, Leland D; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G; Hester, Robert L

    2013-01-01

    We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546

  7. A Population Model of Integrative Cardiovascular Physiology

    PubMed Central

    Pruett, William A.; Husband, Leland D.; Husband, Graham; Dakhlalla, Muhammad; Bellamy, Kyle; Coleman, Thomas G.; Hester, Robert L.

    2013-01-01

    We present a small integrative model of human cardiovascular physiology. The model is population-based; rather than using best fit parameter values, we used a variant of the Metropolis algorithm to produce distributions for the parameters most associated with model sensitivity. The population is built by sampling from these distributions to create the model coefficients. The resulting models were then subjected to a hemorrhage. The population was separated into those that lost less than 15 mmHg arterial pressure (compensators), and those that lost more (decompensators). The populations were parametrically analyzed to determine baseline conditions correlating with compensation and decompensation. Analysis included single variable correlation, graphical time series analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) classification. Most variables were seen to correlate with propensity for circulatory collapse, but not sufficiently to effect reasonable classification by any single variable. Time series analysis indicated a single significant measure, the stressed blood volume, as predicting collapse in situ, but measurement of this quantity is clinically impossible. SVM uncovered a collection of variables and parameters that, when taken together, provided useful rubrics for classification. Due to the probabilistic origins of the method, multiple classifications were attempted, resulting in an average of 3.5 variables necessary to construct classification. The most common variables used were systemic compliance, baseline baroreceptor signal strength and total peripheral resistance, providing predictive ability exceeding 90%. The methods presented are suitable for use in any deterministic mathematical model. PMID:24058546

  8. Spatial uncertainty analysis of population models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; King, Anthony Wayne; Schumaker, Nathan; Ashwood, Tom L; Jackson, Barbara L

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes an approach for conducting spatial uncertainty analysis of spatial population models, and illustrates the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial population models typically simulate birth, death, and migration on an input map that describes habitat. Typically, only a single reference map is available, but we can imagine that a collection of other, slightly different, maps could be drawn to represent a particular species' habitat. As a first approximation, our approach assumes that spatial uncertainty (i.e., the variation among values assigned to a location by such a collection of maps) is constrained by characteristics of the reference map, regardless of how the map was produced. Our approach produces lower levels of uncertainty than alternative methods used in landscape ecology because we condition our alternative landscapes on local properties of the reference map. Simulated spatial uncertainty was higher near the borders of patches. Consequently, average uncertainty was highest for reference maps with equal proportions of suitable and unsuitable habitat, and no spatial autocorrelation. We used two population viability models to evaluate the ecological consequences of spatial uncertainty for landscapes with different properties. Spatial uncertainty produced larger variation among predictions of a spatially explicit model than those of a spatially implicit model. Spatially explicit model predictions of final female population size varied most among landscapes with enough clustered habitat to allow persistence. In contrast, predictions of population growth rate varied most among landscapes with only enough clustered habitat to support a small population, i.e., near a spatially mediated extinction threshold. We conclude that spatial uncertainty has the greatest effect on persistence when the amount and arrangement of suitable habitat are such that habitat capacity is near the minimum required for persistence.

  9. EFFECTS OF CHRONIC STRESS ON WILDLIFE POPULATIONS: A POPULATION MODELING APPROACH AND CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This chapter describes a matrix modeling approach to characterize and project risks to wildlife populations subject to chronic stress. Population matrix modeling was used to estimate effects of one class of environmental contaminants, dioxin-like compounds (DLCs), to populations ...

  10. A one dimensional model of population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Fabiano L.; Ribeiro, Kayo N.

    2015-09-01

    In this work, a one dimensional population growth model is proposed. The model, based on the cooperative and competitive individual-individual distance-dependent interaction, allows us to get a full analytical solution. With this analytical approach, it was possible to investigate the dynamics of the population according to some parameters, as intrinsic growth rate, strength of the interaction between individuals, and the distance-dependent interaction. As a consequence of the individuals' interaction, a rich phase diagram to which the population has access was observed. The phases observed are: convergence to carrying capacity, exponential growth, divergence at finite time, and extinction. Moreover, it was also observed that some phases are strictly dependent on the initial condition. For instance, in the cooperative regime with negative intrinsic growth rate, the population can diverge or become extinct according to the initial population size. The phases accessible to the population can be seen as a macroscopic behavior which emerges from the interaction among the individuals (the microscopic level).

  11. Climate warming and the decline of zooplankton in the California current

    SciTech Connect

    Roemmich, D.; McGowan, J.

    1995-03-03

    Since 1951, the biomass of macrozooplankton in waters off southern California has decreased by 80 percent. During the same period, the surface layer warmed-by more than 1.5{degrees}C in some places-and the temperature differences across the thermocline increased. Increased stratification resulted in less lifting of the thermocline by wind-driven upwelling. A shallower source of upwelled waters provided less inorganic nutrient for new biological production and hence supported a smaller zooplankton population. Continued warming could lead to further decline of zooplankton. 10 refs., 5 figs.

  12. Zooplankton of the waters adjacent to the C. P. Crane generating station. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Grant, G.C.; Womack, C.J.; Olney, J.E.

    1980-08-01

    Zooplankton population in the Gunpowder River and its tributaries were sampled monthly from July, 1979-March, 1980 in a continuation of similar studies begun in March, 1979. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of the present once-through cooling system of the Crane Power Plant. The principal effect of the C.P. Crane generating station on zooplankton of the area is a displacement of an original freshwater community through the pumping of cooling water from Seneca Creek to Saltpeter Creek.

  13. Turbulence and zooplankton production: insights from PROVESS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visser, André W.; Stips, Adolf

    2002-06-01

    Zooplankton are directly influenced by turbulence in both a passive and an active manner. Passively, zooplankton are at the mercy of turbulence in how it affects their vertical mixing, encounter rate, detection abilities and feeding current efficiency. Many zooplankton species, however, are actively able to mitigate the effects of turbulence by modifying their behaviour, e.g. vertical migration, prey switching and habituation to hydromechanical stimuli. Both theoretical treatments of these processes and field observations from the northern North Sea are examined. Field observations show that some copepod species actively migrate to avoid high turbulence levels in surface waters. Furthermore, observations show a negative relationship between turbulence and zooplankton ingestion rates. This supports the paradigm of a dome-shaped response for zooplankton production with environmental turbulence. A theoretical treatment shows that the reaction distance, R, for an ambush-feeding copepod feeding on swimming organisms follows R ∝ ɛ-1/6 where ɛ is the turbulent dissipation rate, a result that shows close agreement with previously reported experimental results.

  14. Fitting population models from field data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.; Freeman, D.C.; Kirchhoff, M.D.; Alados, C.L.; Escos, J.; Duda, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    The application of population and community ecology to solving real-world problems requires population and community dynamics models that reflect the myriad patterns of interaction among organisms and between the biotic and physical environments. Appropriate models are not hard to construct, but the experimental manipulations needed to evaluate their defining coefficients are often both time consuming and costly, and sometimes environmentally destructive, as well. In this paper we present an empirical approach for finding the coefficients of broadly inclusive models without the need for environmental manipulation, demonstrate the approach with both an animal and a plant example, and suggest possible applications. Software has been developed, and is available from the senior author, with a manual describing both field and analytic procedures.

  15. Speciation patterns and processes in the zooplankton of the ancient lakes of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Vaillant, James J; Bock, Dan G; Haffner, G Douglas; Cristescu, Melania E

    2013-01-01

    Although studies of ancient lake fauna have provided important insights about speciation patterns and processes of organisms in heterogeneous benthic environments, evolutionary forces responsible for speciation in the relatively homogenous planktonic environment remain largely unexplored. In this study, we investigate possible mechanisms of speciation in zooplankton using the freshwater diaptomids of the ancient lakes of Sulawesi, Indonesia, as a model system. We integrate phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of mitochondrial and nuclear genes with morphological and genome size data. Overall, our results support the conclusion that colonization order and local adaptation are dominant at the large, island scale, whereas at local and intralacustrine scales, speciation processes are regulated by gene flow among genetically differentiated and locally adapted populations. In the Malili lakes, the diaptomid populations are homogenous at nuclear loci, but show two highly divergent mitochondrial clades that are geographically restricted to single lakes despite the interconnectivity of the lake systems. Our study, based on coalescent simulations and population genetic analyses, indicates that unidirectional hybridization allows gene flow across the nuclear genome, but prevents the introgression of mitochondria into downstream populations. We suggest that hybridization and introgression between young lineages is a significant evolutionary force in freshwater plankton. PMID:24101996

  16. LIMNETIC ZOOPLANKTON OF LAKES IN KATMAI NATIONAL MONUMENT, ALASKA

    EPA Science Inventory

    The limnetic zooplankton in lakes of the Naknek River system in southwestern Alaska was sampled extensively during 1962-63. The numerically dominant forms of limnetic zooplankton were Diaptomus, Cyclops, Daphnia, Bosmina, coregoni, Kellicotia, and Conochilus. Some littoral and be...

  17. Material properties of zooplankton and nekton from the California current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, Kaylyn

    This study measured the material properties of zooplankton, Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas), and two species of myctophids (Symbolophorus californiensis and Diaphus theta) collected from the California Current ecosystem. The density contrast (g) was measured for euphausiids, decapods (Sergestes similis), amphipods (Primno macropa, Phronima sp., and Hyperiid spp.), siphonophore bracts, chaetognaths, larval fish, crab megalopae, larval squid, and medusae. Morphometric data (length, width, and height) were collected for these taxa. Density contrasts varied within and between zooplankton taxa. The mean and standard deviation for euphausiid density contrast were 1.059 +/- 0.009. Relationships between zooplankton density contrast and morphometric measurements, geographic location, and environmental conditions were investigated. Site had a significant effect on euphausiid density contrast. Density contrasts of euphausiids collected in the same geographic area approximately 4-10 days apart were significantly higher (p < 0.001). Sound speed contrast (h) was measured for euphausiids and pelagic decapods (S. similis) and it varied between taxa. The mean and standard deviation for euphausiid sound speed were 1.019 +/- 0.009. Euphausiid mass was calculated from density measurements and volume, and a relationship between euphausiid mass and length was produced. We determined that euphausiid from volumes could be accurately estimated two dimensional measurements of animal body shape, and that biomass (or biovolume) could be accurately calculated from digital photographs of animals. Density contrast (g) was measured for zooplankton, pieces of hake flesh, myctophid flesh, and of the following Humboldt squid body parts: mantle, arms, tentacle, braincase, eyes, pen, and beak. The density contrasts varied within and between fish taxa, as well as among squid body parts. Effects of animal length and environmental conditions on nekton density contrast were investigated. The sound speed contrast (h) was measured for Pacific hake flesh, myctophid flesh, Humboldt squid mantle, and Humboldt squid braincase. Sound speed varied within and between nekton taxa. The material properties reported in this study can be used to improve target strength estimates from acoustic scattering models which would increase the accuracy of biomass estimates from acoustic surveys for these zooplankton and nekton.

  18. Zooplankton assemblages and biomass during a 4-period survey in a northern Mediterranean coastal lagoon.

    PubMed

    Lam-Hoai, T; Rougier, C

    2001-01-01

    The authors proposed to examine zooplankton biomass at three stations inside (T and Z) and outside (M) a coastal lagoon of the north-western Mediterranean Sea. Station T represented the lagoon central area, and station Z was positioned in a shellfish farming sector, while the seaside station (M) served as a reference of marine environment. Analyses were designed to outline the net zooplankton assemblages (taxonomic structures and length distributions) in different environmental conditions, including the farming activity. A discriminant analysis of environmental variables determined that temperature, salinity and phytoplankton implied mainly in spatial pattern of the samples. An ordination of taxa biomasses showed two main factors which might contribute to the organisation of the zooplankton assemblages: the geographical position and the thermal period. The geographical position integrated the lagoon-sea water exchange under forcing parameters (habitat, tides and winds). The thermal period reflected both the populations development cycles and the environmental constraints (temperature, salinity, trophic resources). The resulting effects appeared in structured zooplankton assemblages in space and time. The number of 50 microns interval length classes and of taxa decreased from the seaside and the lagoon central area free of farming activity to the shallower farming zone. But the biomass-length distribution profiles did not closely follow such an expected opposition between opened and confined areas: more extended profiles were observed at station Z. Biomass dominant size classes concerned the range up to 300 microns. This size category appeared to collapse in terms of biomass from the seaside or central area of the lagoon towards the farming area, similarly to zooplankton global biomass fluctuations. Difference between biomass levels and between biomass structures suggested that net zooplankton partly acted as food competitors of macro-filtering organisms, and as preys for farming shellfish and associated epifauna. This impact mainly concerned microzooplankton populations. PMID:11257882

  19. Stellar population models at high spectral resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraston, C.; Strmbck, G.

    2011-12-01

    We present new, high-to-intermediate spectral resolution stellar population models, based on four popular libraries of empirical stellar spectra, namely Pickles, ELODIE, STELIB and MILES. These new models are the same as our previous models, but with higher resolution and based on empirical stellar spectra, while keeping other ingredients the same including the stellar energetics, the atmospheric parameters and the treatment of the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch and the horizontal branch morphology. We further compute very high resolution (R= 20 000) models based on the theoretical stellar library MARCS which extends to the near-infrared. We therefore provide merged high-resolution stellar population models, extending from 1000 to 25 000 , using our previously published high-resolution theoretical models which extended to the ultraviolet. We compare how these libraries perform in stellar population models and highlight spectral regions where discrepancies are found. We confirm our previous findings that the flux around the V band is lower (in a normalized sense) in models based on empirical libraries than in those based on the BaSeL-Kurucz library, which results in a bluer B-V colour. Most noticeably the theoretical library MARCS gives results fully consistent with the empirical libraries. This same effect is also found in other models using MILES, namely Vazdekis et al. and Conroy & Gunn, even though the latter authors reach the opposite conclusion. The bluer predicted B-V colour (by 0.05 mag in our models) is in better agreement with both the colours of luminous red galaxies and globular cluster data. We test the models on their ability to reproduce, through full spectral fitting, the ages and metallicities of Galactic globular clusters as derived from colour-magnitude diagram (CMD) fitting and find overall good agreement. We also discuss extensively the Lick indices calculated directly on the integrated MILES-based spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and compare them with element ratio-sensitive index models. We find a good agreement between the two models, if the metallicity-dependent chemical pattern of the Milky Way stars is properly taken into account in this comparison. As a consequence, the ages and metallicities of Galactic globular clusters are not well reproduced when one uses straight the MILES-based indices, because subtle chemical effects on individual lines dominate the age derivation. The best agreement with the ages of the calibrating globular clusters is found with either element ratio-sensitive absorption-line models or the full SED fitting, for which no particular weight is given to selected lines.

  20. Analysis of six groups of zooplankton in samples taken in 1978/79 at the proposed OTEC site in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico off Tampa Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Flock, M.E.; Hopkins T.L.

    1981-05-01

    Zooplankton populations have been sampled from various depths in the region of the proposed Ocean thermal energy conversion site in the Gulf of Mexico. Data are presented on the numbers and species present at each depth sampled. (DMC)

  1. USING POPULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE RISK IN POPULATION OF BIRDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Wildlife populations are exposed to varying habitat structure and quality, as well as an array of human-induced environmental stressors. Predicting the consequences to a real population of one perturbation (e.g. a pesticide application) without considering other human activities ...

  2. Collection and culture techniques for gelatinous zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Raskoff, Kevin A; Sommer, Freya A; Hamner, William M; Cross, Katrina M

    2003-02-01

    Gelatinous zooplankton are the least understood of all planktonic animal groups. This is partly due to their fragility, which typically precludes the capture of intact specimens with nets or trawls. Specialized tools and techniques have been developed that allow researchers and aquarists to collect intact gelatinous animals at sea and to maintain many of these alive in the laboratory. This paper summarizes the scientific literature on the capture, collection, and culture of gelatinous zooplankton and incorporates many unpublished methods developed at the Monterey Bay Aquarium in the past 15 years. PMID:12588746

  3. Modeling population screening process for maximizing throughputs.

    PubMed

    Li, Chunsheng; Capello, Kevin; Jeng, Huai-An; Hauck, Barry; Kramer, Gary H

    2014-05-01

    Following a large-scale radiation emergency, affected populations will need to be screened soon after for potential contamination (external or internal). Effective management of the available resources can help maximize the screening throughputs. This paper reports the modeling results for screening throughputs in a population screening center using a set resource, considering two major variables, the arrival rate (number of people arriving at the screening center per minute) and the contamination probability (the probability of finding a contaminated group). Both the full process (including all sub-processes in a population screening center) and the core process (including only the screening sub-processes: pre-screening, portal monitoring, and whole body counting) were simulated. As expected, for both processes, as the arrival rate increases, the screening center can get overwhelmed. Interestingly, the contamination probability becomes a significant factor for screening throughputs only when the arrival rate becomes high. The results show that following an emergency, when the arrival rate is high, much more resources will need to be deployed to the population screening center or multiple screening centers will need to be established. PMID:24667390

  4. Population genetics models of transposable elements.

    PubMed

    Brookfield, J F; Badge, R M

    1997-01-01

    The control of transposable element copy number is of considerable theoretical and empirical interest. Under simple models, copy numbers may increase without limit. Mechanisms that can prevent such an increase include those in which the effect of selection increases with copy number, those in which the rate of transposition decreases with copy number, and those where unlimited increase in copy number is prevented by the consequences of functional heterogeneity in the transposable element family. Finite population sizes may attenuate the power of natural selection to act on transposable element copy number in a number of ways that may be of particular importance in laboratory populations. First, a small host population size will create occasional periods in which the variance between individuals in copy number is diminished, and with it the power of natural selection, even when the expected variance is Poisson. Second, small population sizes will produce high-frequency transposable element sites, systematically reducing the variance in copy number. The consequences will be particularly profound when the selective damage of transposable elements follows from their heterozygosity, as when ectopic exchange limits copy number. PMID:9440281

  5. Element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    I review the implementation of the effects from varying chemical element abundance ratios in stellar population modelling, focusing on ?- and Fe-peak elements. A brief overview of the development of such models over the past 30 years is provided, starting with early work on the identification of relevant absorption features in the spectra of early-type galaxies in the 1980s leading to the most recent developments of the past years. Recent highlights include the adoption of new flux calibrated libraries, the inclusion of a wide range of chemical elements, the calculation of error estimates on the model, and the consideration of element variation effects on full spectra. The calibration of such models with globular clusters and some key results on the element ratios measured in early-type galaxies are presented.

  6. SENSITIVITY OF ZOOPLANKTON INDICATORS IN REGIONAL MONITORING

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study describes an approach for assessing and selecting ecological indicators for regional monitoring of northeastern US lakes. We analyze the components of variance for indicators of zooplankton richness and abundance in the context of the spatial and temporal sampling des...

  7. Bacteria dispersal by hitchhiking on zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Grossart, Hans-Peter; Dziallas, Claudia; Leunert, Franziska; Tang, Kam W

    2010-06-29

    Microorganisms and zooplankton are both important components of aquatic food webs. Although both inhabit the same environment, they are often regarded as separate functional units that are indirectly connected through nutrient cycling and trophic cascade. However, research on pathogenic and nonpathogenic bacteria has shown that direct association with zooplankton has significant influences on the bacteria's physiology and ecology. We used stratified migration columns to study vertical dispersal of hitchhiking bacteria through migrating zooplankton across a density gradient that was otherwise impenetrable for bacteria in both upward and downward directions (conveyor-belt hypothesis). The strength of our experiments is to permit quantitative estimation of transport and release of associated bacteria: vertical migration of Daphnia magna yielded an average dispersal rate of 1.3 x 10(5) x cells x Daphnia(-1) x migration cycle(-1) for the lake bacterium Brevundimonas sp. Bidirectional vertical dispersal by migrating D. magna was also shown for two other bacterial species, albeit at lower rates. The prediction that diurnally migrating zooplankton acquire different attached bacterial communities from hypolimnion and epilimnion between day and night was subsequently confirmed in our field study. In mesotrophic Lake Nehmitz, D. hyalina showed pronounced diel vertical migration along with significant diurnal changes in attached bacterial community composition. These results confirm that hitchhiking on migrating animals can be an important mechanism for rapidly relocating microorganisms, including pathogens, allowing them to access otherwise inaccessible resources. PMID:20547852

  8. Zooplankton succession in fingerling production ponds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Many pond cultured species require a range of zooplankton species for consumption before they can be weaned onto manufactured feed. The widest variety of plankton species develops when empty ponds are filled and fertilized. Use of organic and inorganic fertilizers facilitates the development of ba...

  9. ZOOPLANKTON NUTRITIONAL VALUE: NURSERY POND FERTILIZATION EFFECTS

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Little information is available on the utilization of natural productivity (i.e. zooplankton) by catfish fry. Although fry and fingerlings survive on prepared diets, many nutrients acquired by fry in ponds are most likely derived from natural food consumption. Experiments were conducted to answer ...

  10. The dynamics of density dependent population models.

    PubMed

    Guckenheimer, J; Oster, G; Ipaktchi, A

    1977-05-23

    The dynamics of density-dependent population models can be extraordinarily complex as numerous authors have displayed in numerical simulations. Here we commence a theoretical analysis of the mathematical mechanisms underlying this complexity from the viewpoint of modern dynamical systems theory. After discussing the chaotic behavior of one-dimensional difference equations we proceed to illustrate the general theory on a density-dependent Leslie model with two age classes. The pattern of bofurcations away from the equilibrium point is investigated and the existence of a "strange attractor" is demonstrated--i.e. an attracting limit set which is neither an equilibrium nor a limit cycle. Near the strange attractor the system exhibits essentially random behavior. An approach to the statical analysis of the dynamics in the chaotic regime is suggested. We then generalize our conclusions to higher dimensions and continuous models (e.g. the nonlinear von Foerster equation). PMID:886232

  11. SIMULATING TEMPORAL VARIATIONS IN NUTRIENT, PHYTOPLANKTON, AND ZOOPLANKTON ON THE INNER OREGON SHELF

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this study is to use a numerical model to examine the linkages between physical processes and temporal variability in the plankton dynamics in a coastal upwelling system. We used a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model coupled to a two-dimensional circulation...

  12. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  13. Age-dependent models of population growth.

    PubMed

    Ziebur, A D

    1984-12-01

    P. H. Leslie (1945, Biometrika 33, 183-212) (and others) introduced vector-matrix growth difference equations to model populations in which birth and death rates are age-dependent. We develop differential versions of these equations in both the unrestricted growth and logistic cases. We find that the vector logistic equations (difference and differential) are explicitly solvable in terms of solutions of the unrestricted equations, even when vital rates vary with time. These explicit solution formulas make it easy to determine the behavior of solutions as time goes on. PMID:6515584

  14. Sustainability in single-species population models.

    PubMed

    Quinn, Terrance J; Collie, Jeremy S

    2005-01-29

    In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-structured fish population with density dependence at some stage of its life history. We trace the development of the view of sustainability through four periods. The classical view of sustainability, prevalent in the 1970s and earlier, developed from deterministic production models, in which equilibrium abundance or biomass is derived as a function of fishing mortality. When there is no fishing mortality, the population equilibrates about its carrying capacity. We show that carrying capacity is the result of reproductive and mortality processes and is not a fixed constant unless these processes are constant. There is usually a fishing mortality, F(MSY), which results in MSY, and a higher value, F(ext), for which the population is eventually driven to extinction. For each F between 0 and F(ext), there is a corresponding sustainable population. From this viewpoint, the primary tool for achieving sustainability is the control of fishing mortality. The neoclassical view of sustainability, developed in the 1980s, involved population models with depensation and stochasticity. This view point is in accord with the perception that a population at a low level is susceptible to collapse or to a lack of rebuilding regardless of fishing. Sustainability occurs in a more restricted range from that in the classical view and includes an abundance threshold. A variety of studies has suggested that fishing mortality should not let a population drop below a threshold at 10-20% of carrying capacity. The modern view of sustainability in the 1990s moves further in the direction of precaution. The fishing mortality limit is the former target of F(MSY) (or some proxy), and the target fishing mortality is set lower. This viewpoint further reduces the range of permissible fishing mortalities and resultant desired population sizes. The objective has shifted from optimizing long-term catch to preserving spawning biomass and egg production for the future. The use of discount rates in objective functions involving catch is not a suitable alternative to protecting reproductive value. As we move into the post-modern time period, new definitions of sustainability will attempt to incorporate he economic and social aspects of fisheries and/or ecosystem and habitat requirements. These definitions now involve "warm and fuzzy" notions (healthy ecosystems and fishing communities, the needs of future generations, diverse fish communities) and value judgements of desired outcomes. Additional work is needed to make these definitions operational and to specify quantitative objectives to be achieved. In addition, multiple objectives may be incompatible, so trade-offs in what constitutes sustainability must be made. The advances made under the single-species approach should not be abandoned in the post-modern era, but rather enhanced and combined with new approaches in the multi-species and economic realms. PMID:15713594

  15. Regulation of Mnemiopsis leidyi dynamics by potential changes in temperature and zooplankton conditions in the Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salihoglu, B.; Fach, B.; Oguz, T.

    2009-04-01

    Providing a comprehensive understanding of the effects that cause formations of ctenophore blooms in the Black Sea is the main objective of this study. In order to analyse ctenophore dynamics in the Black Sea a zero-dimensional population based model of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi is developed. The stage resolving ctenophore model combines the modified form of stage resolving approach of Fennel, 2001 with the growth dynamics model of Kremer, 1976; Kremer and Reeve, 1989 under 4 stages of model-ctenophore. These stages include the different growth characteristics of egg, juvenile, transitional and adult stages. The dietary patterns of the different stages follows the observations obtained from the literature. The model is able to represent consistent development patterns, while reflecting the physiological complexity of a population of Mnemiopsis leidyi. Model results suggest that different nutritional requirement of each stage may serve as the bottlenecks for population growth and only when growth conditions are favorable for both larval and lobate stages, the high overall population growth rates may occur. Model is also used to analyse the influence of climatic changes on Mnemiopsis leidyi reproduction and outburst. This study presents and discussed how potential changes in temperature and zooplankton conditions in the Black Sea may regulate Mnemiopsis leidyi dynamics.

  16. Exploring Physical and Biological Mechanisms for Zooplankton Retention in the Estuarine Transition Zone of a Riverine Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simons, R. D.; Monismith, S. G.

    2002-12-01

    In this study, we use a coupled three-dimensional physical-biological model to investigate zooplankton retention in the estuarine transition zone (ETZ) of the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE). Varying from well-mixed to partially stratified, the hydrodynamic environment of the SLE is defined by a large tidal range, strong salinity gradients, a large freshwater river flow, and complex bathymetry. The physical-biological model used for this study consisted of two parts: a circulation model and a zooplankton transport model. The circulation model is a three-dimensional Eulerian hydrodynamic model (TRIM3D) driven by the wind, tides, and freshwater outflow. The zooplankton transport model is a three-dimensional Lagrangian particle tracking model which simulates zooplankton movement using velocity fields derived from the three-dimensional circulation model. The circulation model is calibrated using field data such as salinity, pressure, and current time series from different locations in the ETZ. The transport and distribution of three zooplankton taxa, non-native zebra mussel veligers, resident mysids, and larval smelt, were simulated for this study. By simulating these three taxa, we were able to investigate the effect of a range of swimming speeds on zooplankton retention in the ETZ. We present the results of simulations exploring the efficiency of tidal vertical migration, a commonly described biological retention mechanism that is characterized by zooplankton migration up to the surface on flood and down to the bottom on ebb. Tidal vertical migration, also known as selective tidal stream transport, was investigated for several swimming speeds and endogenous rhythms.

  17. Zooplankton Seasonal Abundance of South AmericanSaline Shallow Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Echaniz, Santiago Andrs; Vignatti, Alicia Mara; Jos de Paggi, Susana; Paggi, Juan Csar; Pilati, Alberto

    2006-02-01

    The central provinces of Argentina are characterized by the presence of a high number of shallow lakes, located in endorheic basins, many of which have elevated salinities as well as eutrophic or hypereutrophic condition. The zooplankton of four saline shallow lakes of the province of La Pampa was studied on a monthly basis during a 2-year period to determine its temporal and spatial variation.The surface of these shallow lakes (<2.5 m depth) varied between 56.8 and 215.9 ha, and some have from 8.4 to 20.8 g . l-1. The more saline lakes have clear water and the less saline lakes turbid water. Fishes, Jenynsia multidentata , were present in only two lakes during the last two months of the studied period.The zooplankton was composed of 17 taxa of Rotifera, 5 taxa of Cladocera and 4 taxa of Copepoda. The low diversity and the faunistic composition are characteristic of saline environments. Although the studied lakes share 38% of the species, the faunistic similarity was higher between the two least saline lakes. The lowest diversity was found in the two most saline lakes.All four shallow lakes were characterized by their very high zooplankton density, especially in the least saline lakes (<80000 ind . l-1). The abundance is significantly correlated with the water transparency but not with salinity.The zooplankton temporal variation was characterized by the alternation of macro- and microzooplankton, probably regulated by competition and intrazooplanktonic predation. In each lake, the spatial abundance distribution of the macro- and microzooplankton was homogeneous. It was related to the shallow depht of the lakes and their polymictic condition.The Scheffer model on alternative states in shallow lakes acknowledges that it cannot be applied to saline lakes because Daphnia , the main responsible for the clear water state, is not tolerant to high salinity. Our study shows that the most saline lakes, where the halophylic Daphnia menucoensis is abundant, have also the most clear waters. Another difference that we found with regards to the mentioned model is that, in turbid lakes, it could not have had a top-down control on macrozooplankton exerted by fishes because in these lakes fishes were practically absent.

  18. Population Models for Massive Globular Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Young-Wook; Joo, Seok-Joo; Han, Sang-Il; Na, Chongsam; Lim, Dongwook; Roh, Dong-Goo

    2015-03-01

    Increasing number of massive globular clusters (GCs) in the Milky Way are now turned out to host multiple stellar populations having different heavy element abundances enriched by supernovae. Recent observations have further shown that [CNO/Fe] is also enhanced in metal-rich subpopulations in most of these GCs, including ω Cen and M22 (Marino et al. 2011, 2012). In order to reflect this in our population modeling, we have expanded the parameter space of Y 2 isochrones and horizontal-branch (HB) evolutionary tracks to include the cases of normal and enhanced nitrogen abundances ([N/Fe] = 0.0, 0.8, and 1.6). The observed variations in the total CNO content were reproduced by interpolating these nitrogen enhanced stellar models. Our test simulations with varying N and O abundances show that, once the total CNO sum ([CNO/Fe]) is held constant, both N and O have almost identical effects on the HR diagram (see Fig. 1).

  19. Increasing zooplankton size diversity enhances the strength of top-down control on phytoplankton in the East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, L.; Chang, C.; Garca-Comas, C.; Gong, G.; Hsieh, C.

    2012-12-01

    Body size is one of the fundamental characteristics of organisms linking many ecosystem properties and functions. Recent studies suggest that environmental changes alter the size structure of pelagic food webs; however, ecosystem consequences of such changes remain unclear. Here we tested our main hypothesis that increasing zooplankton size diversity enhances top-down control on phytoplankton in the East China Sea (H1), as well as five conventional hypotheses explaining the top-down control: shallower zooplankton size spectrum enhances the strength of top-down control (H2); nutrient enrichment lessens the strength of top-down control (H3); increasing zooplankton taxonomic diversity enhances the strength of top-down control (H4); increasing fish predation is linked to decreasing the strength of top-down control of zooplankton on phytoplankton (H5); increasing temperature intensifies the strength of top-down control (H6). While the results of our univariate analyses support H1, H2, H3, and H4, more in depth analyses indicate that zooplankton size diversity is the most important factor in determining the strength of top-down control on phytoplankton in East China Sea. Our results suggest a new potential mechanism that increasing predator size diversity enhances the strength of top-down control on prey through diet niche partitioning. This mechanism can be explained by the concept of optimal predator-prey body-mass ratio concept. Suppose each size group of zooplankton predators has its own optimal phytoplankton prey size, increasing size diversity of zooplankton would promote diet niche partitioning of predators and thus elevates the top-down control.Fig. 1 Scatter plots the relationship between zooplankton/phytoplankton biomass ratio versus (A) zooplankton size diversity, (B) slope of zooplankton size spectrum, (C) Zoolankton Shannon diversity, (D) NO3, (E) PO4, (F) SiO3, (G) water temperature, and (H) fish larvae density in the East China Sea. Table 1. Results of the generalized linear mixed-effect model in investigating the effect of each factor on the spatiotemporal dynamics of zooplankton/phytoplankton biomass ratio in the East China Sea, with sampling cruises as a random effect. A lower value of AIC represents better goodness of fit of the model. The p-value was estimated based on MCMC sampling.

  20. UV radiation and freshwater zooplankton: damage, protection and recovery

    PubMed Central

    Rautio, Milla; Tartarotti, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    While many laboratory and field studies show that zooplankton are negatively affected when exposed to high intensities of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), most studies also indicate that zooplankton are well adapted to cope with large variations in their UVR exposure in the pelagic zone of lakes. The response mechanisms of zooplankton are diverse and efficient and may explain the success and richness of freshwater zooplankton in optically variable waters. While no single behavioural or physiological protection mechanism seems to be superior, and while several unexplained and contradictory patterns exist in zooplankton UVR ecology, recent increases in our understanding are consistent with UVR playing an important role for zooplankton. This review examines the variability in freshwater zooplankton responses to UVR, with a focus on crustacean zooplankton (Cladocera and Copepoda). We present an overview of UVR-induced damages, and the protection and recovery mechanisms freshwater zooplankton use when exposed to UVR. We review the current knowledge of UVR impact on freshwater zooplankton at species and community levels, and discuss briefly how global change over the last three decades has influenced the UVR milieu in lakes. PMID:21516254

  1. [Kinetics of zooplankton in an aquatic continuum: from the Marne River and reservoir to the Seine estuary].

    PubMed

    Akopian, Maa; Garnier, Josette; Pourriot, Roger

    2002-07-01

    A study was carried out within a 700-km river sector, including three types of ecosystems (a reservoir, a river and its estuary) to characterise the major features of zooplankton communities in the Seine Basin. In rivers, zooplankton biomass becomes significant only when the growth rate of the organisms is higher than the dilution rate (4-5th orders rivers, according to River Continuum Concept). Upstream, short residence times favour the development of small species (Rotifers) with low individual body weight and biomass. Conversely, larger species (microcrustaceans) develop more downstream, where increased residence time leads to autochthonous production (Riverine Productivity Model). Such a pattern is greatly modified by human impact. Zooplankton input from the Marne reservoir represents one type of disruption in the general upstream-downstream trend (according to the Serial Discontinuity Concept). This reservoir is a source of microcrustaceans; they rapidly disappear mainly through fish predation, and therefore have little impact on the river phytoplankton. Discontinuities, such as confluences, have a relatively small effect on the stock of zooplankton with regard to the water release from the reservoir, but they persist more downstream, because they have the same lotic origin. A few microhabitats with macrophytes play a small role for this canalised river, but they can modify locally the plankton community structure and composition. As a whole, the flux of zooplankton rises exponentially, whereas discharge increases linearly from upstream (4th order) to downstream (8th order). In the canalised sectors, Dreissena larvae build up an important biomass, adding to that of the zooplankton sensu stricto. Especially abundant in the downstream sector of the Marne and Seine Rivers, the larvae show a widespread colonisation of the benthic substrates by the adult Dreissena. One of the largest mussel colonies in the middle estuary can contribute to a rapid decrease of zooplankton. Estuary ecosystems form a transitional zone between freshwater and seawater, with zooplankton dynamics closely linked to the particular conditions on this part of the river system. PMID:12360849

  2. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  3. Bridging the gap between marine biogeochemical and fisheries sciences; configuring the zooplankton link

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, Aditee; Castellani, Claudia; Gentleman, Wendy C.; Jónasdóttir, Sigrún H.; Flynn, Kevin J.; Bode, Antonio; Halsband, Claudia; Kuhn, Penelope; Licandro, Priscilla; Agersted, Mette D.; Calbet, Albert; Lindeque, Penelope K.; Koppelmann, Rolf; Møller, Eva F.; Gislason, Astthor; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel; St. John, Michael

    2014-12-01

    Exploring climate and anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems requires an understanding of how trophic components interact. However, integrative end-to-end ecosystem studies (experimental and/or modelling) are rare. Experimental investigations often concentrate on a particular group or individual species within a trophic level, while tropho-dynamic field studies typically employ either a bottom-up approach concentrating on the phytoplankton community or a top-down approach concentrating on the fish community. Likewise the emphasis within modelling studies is usually placed upon phytoplankton-dominated biogeochemistry or on aspects of fisheries regulation. In consequence the roles of zooplankton communities (protists and metazoans) linking phytoplankton and fish communities are typically under-represented if not (especially in fisheries models) ignored. Where represented in ecosystem models, zooplankton are usually incorporated in an extremely simplistic fashion, using empirical descriptions merging various interacting physiological functions governing zooplankton growth and development, and thence ignoring physiological feedback mechanisms. Here we demonstrate, within a modelled plankton food-web system, how trophic dynamics are sensitive to small changes in parameter values describing zooplankton vital rates and thus the importance of using appropriate zooplankton descriptors. Through a comprehensive review, we reveal the mismatch between empirical understanding and modelling activities identifying important issues that warrant further experimental and modelling investigation. These include: food selectivity, kinetics of prey consumption and interactions with assimilation and growth, form of voided material, mortality rates at different age-stages relative to prior nutrient history. In particular there is a need for dynamic data series in which predator and prey of known nutrient history are studied interacting under varied pH and temperature regimes.

  4. Power-plant-related estuarine zooplankton studies

    SciTech Connect

    Sage, L.E.; Olson, M.M.

    1981-01-01

    In-plant studies examining the effects of entrainment on zooplankton and field studies examining zooplankton abundance, composition, and distribution in the Chesapeake Bay in the vicinity of Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant have been conducted from 1974 to the present. The evolution of these studies, with particular emphasis on design and statistical treatment, is discussed. Entrainment study designs evolved from discrete sampling episodes at 4-h intervals over 24 h to a time-series sampling design in which sampling took place every 30 min over 24 and 48-h periods. The near-field study design and samping methods have included replicated net tows, using 0.5-m nets, and replicated and nonreplicated pumped sampling, using a high-speed centrifugal pump. 16 refs.

  5. [Causes of the technogenic changes in a freshwater zooplankton community].

    PubMed

    Kalinkina, N M; Kulikova, T P; Morozov, A K; Vlasova, L I

    2003-01-01

    The situation in water bodies of northwestern Karelia in 1992-2001 was analyzed. As a result of waste discharge from the mining and ore-processing works, weakly mineralized hydrocarbonate-calcium waters changed into highly mineralized waters with the prevalence of potassium ions and sulfates. The total abundance and biomass of zooplanktonic communities decreased. Using the methods of principal components and partial correlations, differences in the responses of zooplankters to mineral pollution were revealed. Typical inhabitants of northern water bodies decreased in numbers, and the species Eudiaptomus gracilis Sars and Heterocope appendiculata Sars (Calanoida) disappeared. On the other hand, eurybiontic species prevailing in water bodies with higher mineralization manifested a positive reaction to the increase in the contents of dissolved mineral compounds. Toxicological experiments made it possible to estimate the survival threshold for E. gracilis and H. appendiculata: the populations of these crustaceans in the polluted water body perished when potassium concentration in water exceeded 50 mg/l. PMID:14994480

  6. Promotion of harmful algal blooms by zooplankton predatory activity.

    PubMed

    Mitra, Aditee; Flynn, Kevin J

    2006-06-22

    The relationship between algae and their zooplanktonic predators typically involves consumption of nutrients by algae, grazing of the algae by zooplankton which in turn enhances predator biomass, controls algal growth and regenerates nutrients. Eutrophication raises nutrient levels, but does not simply increase normal predator-prey activity; rather, harmful algal bloom (HAB) events develop often with serious ecological and aesthetic implications. Generally, HAB species are outwardly poor competitors for nutrients, while their development of grazing deterrents during nutrient stress ostensibly occurs too late, after the nutrients have largely been consumed already by fast-growing non-HAB species. A new mechanism is presented to explain HAB dynamics under these circumstances. Using a multi-nutrient predator-prey model, it is demonstrated that these blooms can develop through the self-propagating failure of normal predator-prey activity, resulting in the transfer of nutrients into HAB growth at the expense of competing algal species. Rate limitation of this transfer provides a continual level of nutrient stress that results in HAB species exhibiting grazing deterrents protecting them from top-down control. This process is self-stabilizing as long as nutrient demand exceeds supply, maintaining the unpalatable status of HABs; such events are most likely under eutrophic conditions with skewed nutrient ratios. PMID:17148360

  7. Linking contemporary vegetation models with spatially explicit animal population models

    SciTech Connect

    Holt, R.D.; Pacala, S.W.; Smith, T.W.; Liu, Jianguo

    1995-02-01

    Spatially explicit models for animal populations (SEPMs) necessarily embody assumptions about plant community structure and dynamics. This paper explores the advantages and limitations of directly linking animal SEPMs with models for vegetation dynamics. Such linkages may often be unnecessary. For instance, in research focussed on questions with short time horizons, the spatial patterning of vegetation can be reasonably approximated as a fixed landscape templet for animal population dynamics. But if one needs to consider longer time scales (e.g., decades to centuries), landscapes will be dynamic. Models of vegetation dynamics provide useful tools for predicting landscape dynamics. We outline the sorts of output from vegetation models that might be useful in animal SEPMs. We discuss as a concrete example recent forest simulators, which predict with reasonable accuracy some variables (e.g., tree species composition), but which, to date, are quite poor for others (e.g., seed production). Moreover, because vegetation models target a restricted range of temporal and spatial scales, they may be more useful for certain consumer groups than for others. Despite these cautionary observations, we believe that the time is ripe for fruitful linkages between models of vegetation dynamics and animal SEPMs. 61 refs., 1 fig.

  8. Influence of a tidal front on zooplankton abundance, assemblages and life histories in Península Valdés, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derisio, Carla; Alemany, Daniela; Acha, Eduardo M.; Mianzan, Hermes

    2014-11-01

    The complex biophysical interactions that occur in Península Valdés tidal front offer an appropriate scenario to study how zooplankton species respond to the environmental setting. In that sense, we studied why some zooplankton assemblages come to dominate in certain areas, focusing on the differential use that each life history stage makes on the hydrodynamic regimes. Environmental data and zooplankton samples were taken across the tidal front, covering well-mixed, frontal and stratified waters. Zooplankton abundance, assemblage structure, specific composition and life histories were analyzed in relation to depth, temperature, stratification level of the water column and chlorophyll a. Zooplankton-specific composition did not vary across the different zones of the front but, due to differences in relative abundance, three assemblages were detected in coincidence with the three zones analyzed. Most zooplankton adult groups and early life stages were related to the stratification level of the water column. This environmental factor best explained the coupling of the three different zooplankton assemblages with the three zones of the frontal system. This distributional pattern was clearly observed in the copepods group. Despite different copepod species prevailing in different parts of the tidal front, the frontal interface appears to be an important breeding area for all copepod species. The stratification level would be the main factor responsible for the zooplankton distributional pattern across the tidal front, although other physical and biological processes, such as transport, retention and life history strategies could be conditioning the establishment of different zooplankton populations in this complex frontal system.

  9. Bio-physical coupling in the formation of zooplankton and fish aggregations over abrupt topographies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genin, Amatzia

    2004-09-01

    Aggregations of zooplankton, micronekton and fish are frequently observed above seamounts, canyons and shelf breaks. The aggregations are produced by five different mechanisms, all driven by ocean currents. Upwelling is frequently generated when ambient currents impinge on abrupt topographies. Nevertheless, upwelling enhances local production of zooplankton and fish only over large topographies such as shelf breaks, where the residence time of the upwelled water is sufficiently long to allow enrichment in primary production to propagate up the food web and augment the growth of resident animals. Daily accumulations occur over topographies at shallow and intermediate depths when the topography blocks the morning descent of migrating zooplankton. This mechanism is common over seamounts. Two other mechanisms are driven by behavioral response to vertical currents when zooplankton swims vertically in order to maintain depth: accumulations by depth retention against upwelling are common at depths to which migrating zooplankton descend during the day, while depth retention against downwelling seems to operate only in the upper water column (e.g., along topographically generated fronts). The fifth mechanism is driven by the amplification of currents over abrupt topographies. Strong currents enhance population growth of resident animals by augmenting fluxes of suspended food. A feed-rest hypothesis is proposed to explain how site-attached planktivorous fish can benefit from strong currents at sites with ample quiescence shelters in which the fish rest during non-feeding intervals. Four of the above mechanisms generate "trophic focusing", a process by which prey from immense volumes of flowing water is accumulated (or trapped) in a relatively small confined area. The ensuing subsidy of prey propagates up the food web, supporting aggregations of higher predators, such as fish, marine mammals and fishermen. Abrupt topographies can have an important role in determining trophic interactions in the marine realm.

  10. How zooplankton feed: mechanisms, traits and trade-offs.

    PubMed

    Kiørboe, Thomas

    2011-05-01

    Zooplankton is a morphologically and taxonomically diverse group and includes organisms that vary in size by many orders of magnitude, but they are all faced with the common problem of collecting food from a very dilute suspension. In order to maintain a viable population in the face of mortality, zooplankton in the ocean have to clear daily a volume of ambient water for prey particles that is equivalent to about 10(6) times their own body volume. While most size-specific vital rates and mortality rates decline with size, the clearance requirement is largely size-independent because food availability also declines with size. There is a limited number of solutions to the problem of concentrating dilute prey from a sticky medium: passive and active ambush feeding; feeding-current feeding, where the prey is either intercepted directly, retained on a filter, or individually perceived and extracted from the feeding current; cruise feeding; and colonization of large particles and marine snow aggregates. The basic mechanics of these food-collection mechanisms are described, and it is shown that their efficiencies are inherently different and that each of these mechanisms becomes less efficient with increasing size. Mechanisms that compensate for this decline in efficiency are described, including inflation of feeding structures and development of vision. Each feeding mode has implications beyond feeding in terms of risk of encountering predators and chance of meeting mates, and they partly target different types of prey. The main dichotomy is between (inefficient) ambush feeding on motile prey and the more efficient active feeding modes; a secondary dichotomy is between (efficient) hovering and (less efficient) cruising feeding modes. The efficiencies of the various feeding modes are traded off against feeding-mode-dependent metabolic expenses, predation risks, and mating chances. The optimality of feeding strategies, evaluated as the ratio of gain over risk, varies with the environment, and may explain both size-dependent and spatio-temporal differences in distributions of various feeding types as well as other aspects of the biology of zooplankton (mating behaviour, predator defence strategies). PMID:20682007

  11. Landscape Modeling of Lygus hesperus Populations.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Lygus is a key pest in several of the 200 crops grown in the geographically distinct San Joaquin Valley. Spring weather patterns drive population build-up on host-plants. Habitat maps were created from survey sites in cropping regions of Kern County, CA. Population simulations were used to predict a...

  12. AN INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL OF COTTUS POPULATION DYNAMICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We explored population dynamics of a southern Appalachian population of Cottus bairdi using a spatially-explicit, individual-based model. The model follows daily growth, mortality, and spawning of individuals as a function of flow and temperature. We modeled movement of juveniles...

  13. Evaluating habitat as a surrogate for population viability using a spatially explicit population model.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H

    2004-06-01

    Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) and Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). We compared simple measures of habitat quality to estimates of population growth rates obtained from a spatially explicit model of population dynamics. We found that habitat quality was a relatively poor predictor of simulated population growth rates for several reasons. First, a relatively small proportion of the potential habitat for each species served as population sources in our simulations--15% for Red-shouldered Hawks and 2% for Goshawks. Second, when habitat quality correctly predicted demographic sources on the landscape, it consistently underestimated the contribution of these areas to the population. In areas where habitat quality correctly anticipated the presence of demographic sinks, we found no useful quantitative relationship between the two measures. Our simulation model captured the influence of habitat quality on the hawk populations, but it also incorporated interactions between dispersing individuals and landscape patterns. Thus, the discrepancies we observed likely reflected the influence of forest fragmentation and the spatial arrangement of forest patches on the populations. We conclude that simple measures of habitat quality will often be poor surrogates for population persistence, but that spatially explicit population models can help inform the development of better indices. PMID:15141448

  14. Functional bioassays utilizing zooplankton: A comparison

    SciTech Connect

    McNaught, D.C.

    1989-01-01

    Functional zooplankton bioassays based on ingestion, reproduction and respiration are described, with methods for a new ingestion bioassay included. All bioassays are compared using three indices, including the variability of controls, the range of experimental responses, and a listing of contaminants causing inhibition/stimulation of response. The ingestion bioassay showed the greatest range of response, and was sensitive to pesticides, PCBs and heavy metals. It was also commonly characterized by a hormesis response. The reproduction bioassay showed the lowest variability, illustrated a reduced range of response, and was sensitive to nutrients and heavy metals. In one study, the respiration bioassay was sensitive only to PCBs.

  15. Harvesting and Processing Zooplankton for Use as Supplemental Fry Feed

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We present the methods that we used to capture and dry large zooplankton from ponds to feed to channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus fry. Using a submersible pump and canister filter, we were able to capture about 1.0 kg (wet weight; 200 g in terms of dry weight) of zooplankton from well-fertilized po...

  16. Limnetic crustacean zooplankton of Lake Oahe, May-October 1969

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Selgeby, James H.

    1974-01-01

    The limnetic crustacean zooplankton of Lake Oahe was dominated by copepods. Cyclops bicuspidatus thomasi was the dominant crustacean throughout the lake. Mesocyclops edax, Diaptomus ashlandi and Daphnia pulex were major components of the zooplankton in the deep, downstream portion of the lake while Bosmina longirostris and Daphnia retrocurva were important constituents in the river-like, upstream section of the lake.

  17. Thermal stress studies on selected zooplankton species and an isopod

    SciTech Connect

    Bunting, D.L.; Cheper, N.J.

    1980-06-01

    Laboratory determination of temperature stress levels and assessment of their ecological consequences was carried out for selected zooplankton species to develop data for ecological impact associated with industrial use of natural water for cooling. An included literature search revealed substantial fish and benthos data, but little on stress temperature effects on zooplankton. Information was gathered on two cladocerans, four copepods and an isopod.

  18. ZOOPLANKTON SIZE-SPECTRA IN GREAT LAKES COASTAL WATERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Zooplankton mean size and size-distribution are affected by planktivore pressure and potentially reflect the condition of trophic interactions and ecosystem health. We used an optical plankton counter (OPC) to survey and assess zooplankton size-spectra for twenty locations in Lak...

  19. COMPARISONS OF ZOOPLANKTON COMMUNITY SIZE STRUCTURE IN THE GREAT LAKES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Zooplankton mean-size and size-spectra distribution potentially reflect the condition of trophic interactions and ecosystem health because they are affected by both resource availability and planktivore pressure. We assessed zooplankton mean-size and size-spectra using an optical...

  20. Temperature effects on phytoplankton diversity - The zooplankton link

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewandowska, Aleksandra M.; Hillebrand, Helmut; Lengfellner, Kathrin; Sommer, Ulrich

    2014-01-01

    Recent climate warming is expected to affect phytoplankton biomass and diversity in marine ecosystems. Temperature can act directly on phytoplankton (e.g. rendering physiological processes) or indirectly due to changes in zooplankton grazing activity. We tested experimentally the impact of increased temperature on natural phytoplankton and zooplankton communities using indoor mesocosms and combined the results from different experimental years applying a meta-analytic approach. We divided our analysis into three bloom phases to define the strength of temperature and zooplankton impacts on phytoplankton in different stages of bloom development. Within the constraints of an experiment, our results suggest that increased temperature and zooplankton grazing have similar effects on phytoplankton diversity, which are most apparent in the post-bloom phase, when zooplankton abundances reach the highest values. Moreover, we observed changes in zooplankton composition in response to warming and initial conditions, which can additionally affect phytoplankton diversity, because changing feeding preferences of zooplankton can affect phytoplankton community structure. We conclude that phytoplankton diversity is indirectly affected by temperature in the post-bloom phase through changing zooplankton composition and grazing activities. Before and during the bloom, however, these effects seem to be overruled by temperature enhanced bottom-up processes such as phytoplankton nutrient uptake.

  1. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  2. Effects of a synthetic oil on zooplankton community structure

    SciTech Connect

    Hook, L.A.

    1988-01-01

    This study assessed the effects of a coal-derived oil on the structure of zooplankton communities of laboratory pond microcosms and outdoor experimental ponds. Several measures of community structure and multivariate statistical techniques were used to reveal changes in the patterns of zooplankton community structure caused by the perturbation. From these results the basic ecological mechanisms responsible for maintenance of zooplankton community structure were inferred. The comparison of the field, laboratory microcosm, and laboratory bioassay results for the effects of oil provided an empirical basis for predicting pollutant effects on aquatic ecosystems. The responses of the microcosm and pond zooplankton communities to oil treatment were quite similar. Changes in cladoceran densities were the most sensitive indicators of stress in the zooplankton communities. Copepods were slightly less sensitive, and rotifers were least sensitive to oil treatment.

  3. Using fish population models in hydro project evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Power, M.V.; McKinley, R.S.

    1997-04-01

    Technical details of the use of population-level fisheries models in evaluating the environmental impacts of hydroelectric projects are described. Population models are grouped into four types, and evaluated in terms of usefulness of results, prediction uncertainty, and data requirements. The four types of models identified are stock-recruitment, Leslie matrix, life-cycle, and individual-based. Each model is discussed in some detail, with sample results and comparisons between models.

  4. Population model for Alaska Peninsula sea otters. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Siniff, D.B.

    1988-12-31

    This study was conducted to provide a basis for assessing risks of oil spills to sea otter populations along the Alaska Peninsula. The principal efforts were devoted to analyzing the available data on population dynamics. Curves characterizing survivorship and reproduction for sea otters were devised and fitted to several data sets. A detailed review was conducted of methods of assessing population dynamics data, and several new techniques (e.g., bootstrapping) were applied to available data. A simplified model for use with Alaska Peninsula sea otter populations was devised and implemented in a 'spreadsheet' format. Various aspects of model development and data on population size in Alaska Peninsula areas were reviewed.

  5. Spatio-temporal variability of the North Sea cod recruitment in relation to temperature and zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sébastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

  6. Spatio-Temporal Variability of the North Sea Cod Recruitment in Relation to Temperature and Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Nicolas, Delphine; Rochette, Sbastien; Llope, Marcos; Licandro, Priscilla

    2014-01-01

    The North Sea cod (Gadus morhua, L.) stock has continuously declined over the past four decades linked with overfishing and climate change. Changes in stock structure due to overfishing have made the stock largely dependent on its recruitment success, which greatly relies on environmental conditions. Here we focus on the spatio-temporal variability of cod recruitment in an effort to detect changes during the critical early life stages. Using International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1974 to 2011, a major spatio-temporal change in the distribution of cod recruits was identified in the late 1990s, characterized by a pronounced decrease in the central and southeastern North Sea stock. Other minor spatial changes were also recorded in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. We tested whether the observed changes in recruits distribution could be related with direct (i.e. temperature) and/or indirect (i.e. changes in the quantity and quality of zooplankton prey) effects of climate variability. The analyses were based on spatially-resolved time series, i.e. sea surface temperature (SST) from the Hadley Center and zooplankton records from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey. We showed that spring SST increase was the main driver for the most recent decrease in cod recruitment. The late 1990s were also characterized by relatively low total zooplankton biomass, particularly of energy-rich zooplankton such as the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, which have further contributed to the decline of North Sea cod recruitment. Long-term spatially-resolved observations were used to produce regional distribution models that could further be used to predict the abundance of North Sea cod recruits based on temperature and zooplankton food availability. PMID:24551103

  7. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    PubMed

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. These predictions suggested that proposed reference benchmarks from the literature for different taxonomic groups protected all simulated species against population extinction. A generic reference benchmark of 10 μGy h(-1) protected all simulated species against 10% of the effect causing population extinction. Finally, a risk of pseudo-extinction was predicted from 2.0 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 970 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates, representing a slight but statistically significant population decline, the importance of which remains to be evaluated in natural settings. PMID:26630040

  8. Analyzing the trophic link between the mesopelagic microbial loop and zooplankton from observed depth profiles of bacteria and protozoa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, T.; Rassoulzadegan, F.; Thingstad, T. F.

    It is widely recognized that organic carbon exported to the ocean aphotic layer is significantly consumed by heterotrophic organisms such as bacteria and zooplankton in the mesopelagic layer. However, very little is known for the trophic link between bacteria and zooplankton or the function of the microbial loop in this layer. In the northwestern Mediterranean, recent studies have shown that viruses, bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, and ciliates distribute down to 2000 m with group-specific depth-dependent decreases, and that bacterial production decreases with depth down to 1000 m. Here we show that such data can be analyzed using a simple steady-state food chain model to quantify the carbon flow from bacteria to zooplankton over the mesopelagic layer. The model indicates that bacterial mortality by viruses is similar to or 1.5 times greater than that by heterotrophic nanoflagellates, and that heterotrophic nanoflagellates transfer little of bacterial production to higher trophic levels.

  9. PC BEEPOP - A PERSONAL COMPUTER HONEY BEE POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) colony population dynamics. he model consists of a system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, colony energetics, and contaminant exposure. t includes a mortal...

  10. PC BEEPOP - AN ECTOXICOLOGICAL SIMULATION MODEL FOR HONEY BEE POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    PC BEEPOP is a computer model that simulates honey bee colony population dynamics. he model consists of a feedback system of interdependent elements, including colony condition, environmental variability, and contaminant exposures. t includes a mortality module (BEEKILL) and a ch...

  11. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1 grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization [Senina, I., Sibert, J., Lehodey, P., 2008. Parameter estimation for basin-scale ecosystem-linked population models of large pelagic predators: application to skipjack tuna. Progress in Oceanography]. Once this evaluation and parameterization is complete, it may be possible to use the model for management of tuna stocks in the context of climate and ecosystem variability, and to investigate potential changes due to anthropogenic activities including global warming and fisheries pressures and management scenarios.

  12. MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  13. Population models for passerine birds: structure, parameterization, and analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Noon, B.R.; Sauer, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Population models have great potential as management tools, as they use infonnation about the life history of a species to summarize estimates of fecundity and survival into a description of population change. Models provide a framework for projecting future populations, determining the effects of management decisions on future population dynamics, evaluating extinction probabilities, and addressing a variety of questions of ecological and evolutionary interest. Even when insufficient information exists to allow complete identification of the model, the modelling procedure is useful because it forces the investigator to consider the life history of the species when determining what parameters should be estimated from field studies and provides a context for evaluating the relative importance of demographic parameters. Models have been little used in the study of the population dynamics of passerine birds because of: (1) widespread misunderstandings of the model structures and parameterizations, (2) a lack of knowledge of life histories of many species, (3) difficulties in obtaining statistically reliable estimates of demographic parameters for most passerine species, and (4) confusion about functional relationships among demographic parameters. As a result, studies of passerine demography are often designed inappropriately and fail to provide essential data. We review appropriate models for passerine bird populations and illustrate their possible uses in evaluating the effects of management or other environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify environmental influences on population dynamics. We identify parameters that must be estimated from field data, briefly review existing statistical methods for obtaining valid estimates, and evaluate the present status of knowledge of these parameters.

  14. Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

    PubMed

    Owen-Smith, Norman

    2011-07-01

    1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. PMID:21644974

  15. Biological processes in the water column of the South Atlantic Bight: Zooplankton responses: Progress report, June 1988--June 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Paffenhoefer, G.A.

    1989-02-07

    It is our objective to determine the major processes governing the abundance, composition and disruption of zooplankton as part of the interdisciplinary southeastern US continental shelf program of the Department of Energy. We will study the effects of physical processes such as along- and cross shelf advection and frontogenesis, on the development and fate of zooplankton populations during winter. Our proposed research consists of shipboard sampling, laboratory experiments and in situ determination of zooplankton abundance over time. The last objective represents a novel approach because the observations are (a) non-destructive with great spatial resolution, and (b) occur on current meter arrays at similar scales as measurements of current velocity and direction. Results to date show prolonged residence times of upwelled water masses on the middle and inner shelf during summer which results in the development of massive copepod and tunicate populations. During spring, the extent of displacement of nearshore zooplankton was a function of wind stress. Our results can be used to predict the impact of energy-related technology on the ecosystem of the southeastern continental shelf. 8 refs., 6 figs.

  16. Characterization of Lake Michigan coastal lakes using zooplankton assemblages

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitman, Richard L.; Nevers, Meredith B.; Goodrich, Maria L.; Murphy, Paul C.; Davis, Bruce M.

    2004-01-01

    Zooplankton assemblages and water quality were examined bi-weekly from 17 April to 19 October 1998 in 11 northeastern Lake Michigan coastal lakes of similar origin but varied in trophic status and limnological condition. All lakes were within or adjacent to Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Michigan. Zooplankton (principally microcrustaceans and rotifers) from triplicate Wisconsin net (80 I?m) vertical tows taken at each lake's deepest location were analyzed. Oxygen-temperature-pH-specific conductivity profiles and surface water quality were concurrently measured. Bray-Curtis similarity analysis showed small variations among sample replicates but large temporal differences. The potential use of zooplankton communities for environmental lake comparisons was evaluated by means of BIOENV (Primer 5.1) and principal component analyses. Zooplankton analyzed at the lowest identified taxonomic level yielded greatest sensitivity to limnological variation. Taxonomic and ecological aggregations of zooplankton data performed comparably, but less well than the finest taxonomic analysis. Secchi depth, chlorophyll a, and sulfate concentrations combined to give the best correlation with patterns of variation in the zooplankton data set. Principal component analysis of these variables revealed trophic status as the most influential major limnological gradient among the study lakes. Overall, zooplankton abundance was an excellent indicator of variation in trophic status.

  17. Seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal zone of the North-Eastern Black Sea.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikishina, A. B.; Arashkevich, E. G.; Louppova, N. E.; Soloviev, K. A.

    2009-04-01

    The phenological response of zooplankton community is a result of simultaneous effect of several factors: feeding conditions, predation abundance, periods of reproduction of common species and hydrodynamic regime. The Black sea ecosystem is one of the best studied in the world, otherwise there is still some illegibility about ecosystem functioning and especially about environmental factors influence on zooplankton dynamics. For the last twenty years pelagic system of the Black Sea has changed dramatically. The invasion of ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the middle of eighties caused significant decrease in zooplankton biomass. It also altered plankton structure and shifted periods of mass reproduction of the abundant species and biomass maximums. For instance, before the invasion of Mnemiopsis the maximum of zooplankton biomass was observed in autumn (data by A. Pasternak, 1983), and after that the maximum moved to the spring (data by V.S. Khoroshilov, 1999). The incursion of ctenophore Beroe ovata feeding on Mnemiopsis in the nineties has led to the enhancement of zooplankton community. Although the detailed analysis of seasonal zooplankton dynamics wasn't performed in the recent years. The object of our research was to study seasonal and interannual changes in zooplankton community in the coastal area of the North-Eastern Black Sea. Analysis of interannual, seasonal and spatial changes in zooplankton distribution, abundance and species composition along with age structure of dominant populations were performed based on investigations during 2005-2008 years in the North-Eastern Black Sea. Plankton samples were obtained monthly since June 2005 till December 2008. Plankton was collected at three stations at depths 25m, 50m and 500-1000m along the transect from the Blue Bay to the open sea. Sampling of gelatinous animals was conducted in parallel to the zooplankton sampling. Simultaneously with plankton sampling CTD data were obtained. The feeding conditions were obtained using SSC satellite data. For studying vertical distribution of zooplankton depth stratified samples were collected in different seasons. To evaluate seasonal variations in reproduction and offspring development of dominant mesozooplankton populations, we analyzed age structure of five species: four herbivorous copepods - Acartia clausi, Pseudocalanus elongatus, Paracalanus parvus and Calanus euxinus, and carnivorous chaethognaths Parasagitta setosa. Periods of mass reproduction varied in different years. The possible reason for this variation is the effect of climate change and top-predators on seasonal shift in zooplankton dynamics. Whereas timing of reproduction is related to life strategy of species, an intensity of reproduction and success of new generations depend on food supply. The impact of food conditions on abundance and age structure of herbivores was studied in the different seasons. Vertical distribution of different species also altered from year to year. Thus, in "warm" July 2007 (sea surface temperature 27C) most of the Calanus euxinus population concentrated in the deeper layers than in "cold" July 2005 (sea surface temperature 22C).

  18. Nonparametric identification of population models: an MCMC approach.

    PubMed

    Neve, Marta; De Nicolao, Giuseppe; Marchesi, Laura

    2008-01-01

    The paper deals with the nonparametric identification of population models, that is models that explain jointly the behavior of different subjects drawn from a population, e.g., responses of different patients to a drug. The average response of the population and the individual responses are modeled as continuous-time Gaussian processes with unknown hyperparameters. Within a Bayesian paradigm, the posterior expectation and variance of both the average and individual curves are computed by means of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme. The model and the estimation procedure are tested on both simulated and experimental pharmacokinetic data. PMID:18232345

  19. A general consumer-resource population model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M.

    2015-01-01

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model.

  20. [Population projection and its principal components: the future model of population in the province of Alicante].

    PubMed

    Norman Mora, E

    1994-01-01

    "In this article we analyze the different demographic patterns defining the population in the province of Alicante [Spain]. The behaviour of the demographic factors in the past and in the present is studied here, and a series of models are put into practice in order to foresee the future pattern of population.... The result shows either the effect of a possible ageing in an already aged population, as is the case of the province of Alicante, or what the job market would have to endure if the above mentioned ageing took place, increased by the possibility of an inmigration of an older population." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) PMID:12288183

  1. IBSEM: An Individual-Based Atlantic Salmon Population Model

    PubMed Central

    Castellani, Marco; Heino, Mikko; Gilbey, John; Araki, Hitoshi; Svåsand, Terje; Glover, Kevin A.

    2015-01-01

    Ecology and genetics can influence the fate of individuals and populations in multiple ways. However, to date, few studies consider them when modelling the evolutionary trajectory of populations faced with admixture with non-local populations. For the Atlantic salmon, a model incorporating these elements is urgently needed because many populations are challenged with gene-flow from non-local and domesticated conspecifics. We developed an Individual-Based Salmon Eco-genetic Model (IBSEM) to simulate the demographic and population genetic change of an Atlantic salmon population through its entire life-cycle. Processes such as growth, mortality, and maturation are simulated through stochastic procedures, which take into account environmental variables as well as the genotype of the individuals. IBSEM is based upon detailed empirical data from salmon biology, and parameterized to reproduce the environmental conditions and the characteristics of a wild population inhabiting a Norwegian river. Simulations demonstrated that the model consistently and reliably reproduces the characteristics of the population. Moreover, in absence of farmed escapees, the modelled populations reach an evolutionary equilibrium that is similar to our definition of a ‘wild’ genotype. We assessed the sensitivity of the model in the face of assumptions made on the fitness differences between farm and wild salmon, and evaluated the role of straying as a buffering mechanism against the intrusion of farm genes into wild populations. These results demonstrate that IBSEM is able to capture the evolutionary forces shaping the life history of wild salmon and is therefore able to model the response of populations under environmental and genetic stressors. PMID:26383256

  2. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner; Richard B Chandler; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  3. Modelling production per unit of food consumed in fish populations.

    PubMed

    Wiff, Rodrigo; Barrientos, Mauricio A; Milessi, Andrs C; Quiroz, J C; Harwood, John

    2015-01-21

    The ratio of production-to-consumption (?) reflects how efficiently a population can transform ingested food into biomass. Usually this ratio is estimated by separately integrating cohort per-recruit production and consumption per unit of biomass. Estimates of ? from cohort analysis differ from those that consider the whole population, because fish populations are usually composed of cohorts that differ in their relative abundance. Cohort models for ? also assume a stable age-structure and a constant population size (stationary condition). This may preclude their application to harvested populations, in which variations in fishing mortality and recruitment will affect age-structure. In this paper, we propose a different framework for estimating (?) in which production and consumption are modelled simultaneously to produce a population estimator of ?. Food consumption is inferred from the physiological concepts underpinning the generalised von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF). This general framework allows the effects of different age-structures to be explored, with a stationary population as a special case. Three models with different complexities, depending mostly on what assumptions are made about age-structure, are explored. The full data model requires knowledge about food assimilation efficiency, parameters of the VBGF and the relative proportion of individuals at age a at time y (Py(a)). A simpler model, which requires less data, is based on the stationary assumption. Model results are compared with estimates from cohort models for ? using simulated fish populations of different lifespans. The models proposed here were also applied to three fish populations that are targets of commercial fisheries in the south-east Pacific. Uncertainty in the estimation of ? was evaluated using a resampling approach. Simulation showed that cohort and population models produce different estimates for ? and those differences depend on lifespan, fishing mortality and recruitment variations. Results from the three case studies show that the population model gives similar estimates to those reported by empirical models in other fish species. This modelling framework allows ? to be related directly to population length- or age-structure and thus has the potential to improve the biological realism of both population and ecosystem models. PMID:25445187

  4. A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  5. A Quantitative Model of Honey Bee Colony Population Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Myerscough, Mary R.; Barron, Andrew B.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem. PMID:21533156

  6. Numerical integration of population models satisfying conservation laws: NSFD methods.

    PubMed

    Mickens, Ronald E

    2007-10-01

    Population models arising in ecology, epidemiology and mathematical biology may involve a conservation law, i.e. the total population is constant. In addition to these cases, other situations may occur for which the total population, asymptotically in time, approach a constant value. Since it is rarely the situation that the equations of motion can be analytically solved to obtain exact solutions, it follows that numerical techniques are needed to provide solutions. However, numerical procedures are only valid if they can reproduce fundamental properties of the differential equations modeling the phenomena of interest. We show that for population models, involving a dynamical conservation law the use of nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) methods allows the construction of discretization schemes such that they are dynamically consistent (DC) with the original differential equations. The paper will briefly discuss the NSFD methodology, the concept of DC, and illustrate their application to specific problems for population models. PMID:22876826

  7. Effects of drought and pluvial periods on fish and zooplankton communities in prairie lakes: systematic and asystematic responses.

    PubMed

    Starks, Elizabeth; Cooper, Ryan; Leavitt, Peter R; Wissel, Björn

    2014-04-01

    The anticipated impacts of climate change on aquatic biota are difficult to evaluate because of potentially contrasting effects of temperature and hydrology on lake ecosystems, particularly those closed-basin lakes within semiarid regions. To address this shortfall, we quantified decade-scale changes in chemical and biological properties of 20 endorheic lakes in central North America in response to a pronounced transition from a drought to a pluvial period during the early 21st century. Lakes exhibited marked temporal changes in chemical characteristics and formed two discrete clusters corresponding to periods of substantially different effective moisture (as Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI). Discriminant function analysis (DFA) explained 90% of variability in fish assemblage composition and showed that fish communities were predicted best by environmental conditions during the arid interval (PDSI <-2). DFA also predicted that lakes could support more fish species during pluvial periods, but their occurrences may be limited by periodic stress due to recurrent droughts and physical barriers to colonization. Zooplankton taxonomic assemblages in fishless lakes were resilient to short-term changes in meteorological conditions, and did not vary between drought and deluge periods. Conversely, zooplankton taxa in fish-populated lakes decreased substantially in biomass during the wet interval, likely due to increased zooplanktivory by fish. The powerful effects of such climatic variability on hydrology and the strong subsequent links to water chemistry and biota indicate that future changes in global climate could result in significant restructuring of aquatic communities. Together these findings suggest that semiarid lakes undergoing temporary climate shifts provide a useful model system for anticipating the effects of global climate change on lake food webs. PMID:23960001

  8. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    PubMed Central

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  9. Models of plant populations and communities

    SciTech Connect

    Huston, M.

    1990-01-01

    This document is the overview of the plant section in the book, {und Individual-Based Models and Approaches in Ecology}. A brief description of each of the chapters is provided, as well as a comparison of the models presented in each chapter. Four of the six chapters deal with single species interactions, one dealt with a two species system (plants and pollinators) and one deals with multispecies interactions. Both i-state distribution models and i-state configuration models are discussed. (MHB)

  10. Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data.

    PubMed

    Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

    2011-09-01

    Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona. PMID:21155745

  11. Augmenting superpopulation capture-recapture models with population assignment data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wen, Zhi; Pollock, Kenneth; Nichols, James; Waser, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Ecologists applying capture-recapture models to animal populations sometimes have access to additional information about individuals' populations of origin (e.g., information about genetics, stable isotopes, etc.). Tests that assign an individual's genotype to its most likely source population are increasingly used. Here we show how to augment a superpopulation capture-recapture model with such information. We consider a single superpopulation model without age structure, and split each entry probability into separate components due to births in situ and immigration. We show that it is possible to estimate these two probabilities separately. We first consider the case of perfect information about population of origin, where we can distinguish individuals born in situ from immigrants with certainty. Then we consider the more realistic case of imperfect information, where we use genetic or other information to assign probabilities to each individual's origin as in situ or outside the population. We use a resampling approach to impute the true population of origin from imperfect assignment information. The integration of data on population of origin with capture-recapture data allows us to determine the contributions of immigration and in situ reproduction to the growth of the population, an issue of importance to ecologists. We illustrate our new models with capture-recapture and genetic assignment data from a population of banner-tailed kangaroo rats Dipodomys spectabilis in Arizona.

  12. Effect of various intake designs on zooplankton entrainment

    SciTech Connect

    Dycus, D.L.

    1983-03-01

    Field studies were conducted at the intakes of three Tennessee Valley Authority electric power plants to determine whether intake design is a feasible means of mitigating effects on zooplankton by minimizing the quantity entrained. Three intake designs were evaluated: one with a shallow skimmer wall, one with a deep skimmer wall, and one with no skimmer wall. Several studies indicated possible differences between day and night in the quantity of zooplankton entrained. None of these studies indicated that the intake designs studied minimized the quantity of zooplankton entrained because the quantities in the intake canals were similar to the quantities in the source water body.

  13. Competition models with niche for squirrel population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Rossi, Alessandra; Ferrua, Ilaria; Perracchione, Emma; Ruatta, Giulia; Venturino, Ezio

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we investigate squirrel competition models. More precisely, at first we consider a competition model between red native and grey exotic squirrels, then a model with competition among red native, red indigenous and grey exotic squirrels. We assume that a part of red squirrels can hide in a niche. By adding this hypothesis, we analize if, independently from initial conditions, the grey exotic squirrel population could be prevented from invading the ecosystem and displacing the native populations.

  14. Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton, and zooplankton: emergence in space and time.

    PubMed

    Roy, Shovonlal

    2008-10-01

    In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity-a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water. PMID:19669506

  15. Phytoplankton limitation by phosphorus and zooplankton grazing in an acidic Adirondack lake

    SciTech Connect

    Singer, R.; Evans, G.L.; Pratt, N.C.

    1984-08-01

    Lakes which are believed to have been acidified by atmospheric deposition of anthropogenic substances are known for their unusually high water clarity and low nutrient concentrations. Some evidence indicates that alterations in predator/prey relationships, an indirect effect of acidification, bring about the increase in water clarity. Enclosures were used to study the effects of phosphorus addition and zooplankton removal on the phytoplankton of an acidic lake in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Fertilized enclosures had significantly lower alkalinities and contained significantly more dissolved oxygen after the incubation period than did unfertilized enclosures. The P concentration remained at or near the limit of detection in the unfertilized enclosures. The phytoplankton population bloomed after the addition of 80 micro g/liter of phosphate as KH/sub 2/PO/sub 4/. The response was measured by cell counts of the dominant phytoplankton. Chlamydomonas, and by changes in chlorophyll a concentration. About half the number of algal cells were present after the two week incubation when zooplankton were not removed, indicating that zooplankton herbivory can influence, but not totally control, the algal production. 46 references.

  16. Effect of planktivores, zooplankton, and macrobenthos on material flow in a small lake

    SciTech Connect

    Starkel, W.M.

    1985-01-01

    Planktivores, zooplankton grazers, and macrobenthos were studied to determine how changes in animal community structure may alter the flow of material in Dunham Pond, CT. Chaoborus and chironomid larvae were studied to determine how they affect the flux of matter across the sediment/water interface. This was done by incubating undisturbed cores in situ and relating changes in water chemistry to larval density. The log-transformed flux rates of iron, manganese, and phosphorus were linearly related to larval biomass. Functional groups may be successfully used to predict rates of material flow. Changes in the mass of macroinvertebrates affect the flux rates of redox-active substances across the sediment/water interface. The use of population densities and feeding characteristics to estimate trophic transfer in Dunham Pond indicate that (1) visual planktivory by larval perch may result in overutilization of prey, (2) ambush planktivory by univoltine Chaoborus appears to under utilize prey, and (3) zooplankton grazing tracks net primary productivity, regardless of zooplankton community structure. Animal groups cycle 30-100% of the phosphorus required for /sup 14/C productivity in Dunham Pond.

  17. Changes in the nearshore and offshore zooplankton communities in Lake Ontario: 1981-88

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johannsson, Ora E.; Mills, Edward L.; O'Gorman, Robert

    1991-01-01

    We examined trends and factors influencing changes in nearshore and offshore zooplankton abundance and composition in Lake Ontario between 1981 and 1988. In the nearshore (southshore and eastern basin), zooplankton abundance decreased and shifts occurred in the relative abundances of Bosmina longirostris and Daphnia retrocurva (eastern basin) and Daphnia retrocurva and Daphnia galeata mendotae (southshore). These changes could have resulted from increased vertebrate predation or reduced food resources which intensified the effects of predation. In the offshore, the first appearance (FA) of the larger, less common cladoceran species occurred earlier in the season as of 1985. FA was correlated with cumulative epilimnetic temperature (CET) and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) a?Y165 mm caught in U.S. waters in the spring. In 1987, when CET was high and CPUE of alewife a?Y165 mm was low, large populations of these cladocerans developed in June and July. Bythotrephes cederstroemi, a recent invader in the Great Lakes, was abundant only in 1987 when the CPUE of alewife was lowest. Changes in zooplankton abundance, development, and composition along the nearshore-offshore gradient reflected effects of temperature, habitat, and planktivory on the community.

  18. Evidence of microplastics in samples of zooplankton from Portuguese coastal waters.

    PubMed

    Frias, J P G L; Otero, V; Sobral, P

    2014-04-01

    Records of high concentrations of plastic and microplastic marine debris floating in the ocean have led to investigate the presence of microplastics in samples of zooplankton from Portuguese coastal waters. Zooplankton samples collected at four offshore sites, in surveys conducted between 2002 and 2008, with three different sampling methods, were used in this preliminary study. A total of 152 samples were processed and microplastics were identified in 93 of them, corresponding to 61% of the total. Costa Vicentina, followed by Lisboa, were the regions with higher microplastic concentrations (0.036 and 0.033 no. m?) and abundances (0.07 and 0.06 cm m?), respectively. Microplastic: zooplankton ratios were also higher in these two regions, which is probably related to the proximity of densely populated areas and inputs from the Tejo and Sado river estuaries. Microplastics polymers were identified using Micro Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (?-FTIR), as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP) and polyacrylates (PA). The present work is the first report on the composition of microplastic particles collected with plankton nets in Portuguese coastal waters. Plankton surveys from regular monitoring campaigns conducted worldwide may be used to monitor plastic particles in the oceans and constitute an important and low cost tool to address marine litter within the scope of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC). PMID:24461782

  19. Zooplankton distribution in the western Arctic during summer 2002: Hydrographic habitats and implications for food chain dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lane, Peter V. Z.; Llins, Leopoldo; Smith, Sharon L.; Pilz, Dora

    Global warming is presently a widely accepted phenomenon with a broad range of anticipated impacts on marine ecosystems. Alterations in temperature, circulation and ice cover in Arctic seas may result in changes in food chain dynamics, beginning with planktonic processes. As part of the Shelf-Basin Interactions (SBI) program, we conducted zooplankton surveys during summer 2002 to assess the biomass, distribution and abundance of copepods and other pelagic zooplankton over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves, slope regions and the adjacent Canada Basin. The motivation for our fieldwork was the question, "Will global change, particularly warming, result in more large-sized zooplankton which support a pelagic food web of fish, birds, and certain mammals over the Chukchi and Beaufort shelves or in more smaller-sized zooplankton which will diminish the fish, birds and mammals and favor sedentary benthic organisms?" The objectives of the present study were 1) to census the regional zooplankton community and establish a baseline for comparisons with historical and future studies and 2) to determine whether large-bodied copepods associated with deep waters of the Bering Sea or the Canada Basin were transported to the shelves in sufficient numbers to modify the food web in a region where smaller copepods often dominate the zooplankton numerically. Spatial distributions of zooplankton communities were clearly associated with hydrographic habitats determined by the chemical, physical and biological characteristics of the upper water layer. Smaller taxa dominated the shelf communities while offshore zooplankton assemblages were characterized by large-bodied copepods. The mesozooplankton community was numerically dominated by copepod nauplii and small-bodied juveniles, including Pseudocalanus spp. and Oithona similis. We observed very few large-bodied copepods from the Bering Sea. However, much of the shelf region surveyed included relatively numerous Calanus glacialis juveniles and adults, suggesting that these copepods were advected onto the shelf and possibly reproducing there. Juvenile stages of the large-bodied copepod Calanus hyperboreus were found in relative abundance on the Chukchi shelf in the vicinity of Hanna Canyon. These observations suggest that large-bodied, deep-water species from the basin are advected onto the Chukchi Shelf where they may impact the fate of shelf-derived primary production and alter the food webs of the shelves. Regional comparisons of abundances of selected taxa enumerated in the present study with sample data from the early 1950s suggested that some taxa were more abundant in the SBI region in 2002 than ca. 50 years ago. Long-term changes in planktonic populations are expected to have significant implications for shelf-basin exchange of biogenic material in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and the adjacent Arctic Basin.

  20. Feeding of Acanthocylops robustus on zooplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu-Feng, Yang; Brandl, Zdeněk

    1996-03-01

    Feeding of freshwater cyclopoid copepod Acanthocyclops robustus on zooplankton was examined by a senes of feeding experiments during August-September of 1993. Study results showed A. robustus can capture and eat all type items provided from the Starý Haklovský fishpond, a shallow eutrophic water body near Budějovice City, Czech Republic. Selection by the predator was determined largely by prey body-size and density, but was also affected by prey types. Variable but significant changes in feeding rates were found in various size distribution and concentration of prey types. Percentages of small (80-235μm) and large (445-610μm) prey consumed were 42.47 and 3.85%, respectively. Starvation did not cause statistically significant difference. The feeding on Ceriodaphnia quadrangula showed significant difference between large and small prey. Feeding rate increased with increasing prey concentration.

  1. Zooplankton in Langmuir Cells Observed from FLIP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Checkley, D.; Bez, N.

    2002-12-01

    We sought to test the hypothesis of Stommel and others that Langmuir cells (LCs) foster pattern in the distribution and abundance of zooplankton in the open ocean. To this end, one of us (DMC) participated in the 1995 Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) Experiment in which FLIP was deployed in deep water off Monterey in springtime. Atmospheric and wave forcing of LCs was measured by MBL participants. Periodically, we profiled continuously at 1 meter per second for hours to days within the upper ocean with a package containing a CTD and Optical Plankton Counter. Throughout, we deployed a CTD and Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter at a mean depth of 6 then 8 m. On occasion, simultaneous collections were made with a plankton pump and net system and the samples were microscopically enumerated. The resultant data were analyzed for pattern using geostatistics. Conditions progressed over a period of two weeks from benign, with a stratified upper ocean, to strong winds and high waves, with well-developed LCs, followed by abatement. Forcing was quantified by estimating LC convergent velocity from wind stress and wave height time series. LCs were manifest in the temperature distribution of our profiler data. In particular, in the time-depth domain, sections within LCs showed cool water apparently entrained upward from the base of the mixed layer to the surface. These patterns persisted on the scale of hours. Temperature at a single depth within well-developed LCs varied in a periodic fashion over a range of the order 0.02 deg C. Such measurements provide the physical context in which to interpret our biological observations. Variograms were used to assess spatial pattern of temperature and plankton. Significant pattern existed for temperature in LCs in the horizontal but not along profiles in the vertical, within the mixed layer, consistent with our observations of LCs in the time-depth domain. The fixed and profiling CTDs yielded consistent time series, confirming the accuracy of the profiler temperature data and, thus, existence of LCs. No significant pattern existed in LCs in the horizontal for zooplankton-sized particles sensed by the profiling OPC. Similarly, no structure, thus pattern, existed in LCs in the horizontal for zooplankton collected with the plankton pump. Conversely, during benign conditions, pattern was evident in the zooplankton sensed by the profiling OPC and collected by the pump. Residual velocities of LCs we observed in the open ocean appear to exceed the swimming speed of individual zooplankters. Hence, whereas LCs caused pattern in temperature, they mixed the plankton. FLIP remains a unique and excellent platform for interdisciplinary studies of plankton and air-sea interactions. Future work might use include the use of video to study the plankton and marine snow (particle aggregates) in a range of forcing conditions. Collaboration between the disciplines is enhanced by FLIP's tight quarters. This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research.

  2. Spatially explicit population models: Current forms and future uses

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, J.B. Jr.; Stewart, D.J.; Danielson, B.J.; Noon, B.R.; Root, T.L.; Lamberson, R.H.; Stevens, E.E.

    1995-02-01

    Spatially explicit population models are becoming increasingly useful tools for population ecologists, conservation biologists, and land managers. Models are spatially explicit when they combine a population simulator with a landscaped map that describes the spatial distribution of landscape features. With this map, the locations of habitat patches, individuals, and other items of interest are explicitly incorporated into the model, and the effect of changing landscape features on population dynamics can be studied. In this paper we describe the structure of some spatially explicit models under development and provide examples of current and future research using these models. Spatially explicit models are important tools for investigating scale-related questions in population ecology, especially the response of organisms to habitat change occurring at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Simulation models that incorporate real-world landscapes, as portrayed by landscape maps created with geographic information systems, are also proving to be crucial in the development of management strategies in response to regional land-use and other global change processes. Spatially explicit population models will increase our ability to accurately model complex landscapes, and therefore should improve both basic ecological knowledge of landscape phenomena and applications of landscape ecology to conservation and management. 58 refs., 1 fig.

  3. Zooplankton may serve as transmission vectors for viruses infecting algal blooms in the ocean.

    PubMed

    Frada, Miguel Jos; Schatz, Daniella; Farstey, Viviana; Ossolinski, Justin E; Sabanay, Helena; Ben-Dor, Shifra; Koren, Ilan; Vardi, Assaf

    2014-11-01

    Marine viruses are recognized as a major driving force regulating phytoplankton community composition and nutrient cycling in the oceans. Yet, little is known about mechanisms that influence viral dispersal in aquatic systems, other than physical processes, and that lead to the rapid demise of large-scale algal blooms in the oceans. Here, we show that copepods, abundant migrating crustaceans that graze on phytoplankton, as well as other zooplankton can accumulate and mediate the transmission of viruses infecting Emiliania huxleyi, a bloom-forming coccolithophore that plays an important role in the carbon cycle. We detected by PCR that >80% of copepods collected during a North Atlantic E. huxleyi bloom carried E. huxleyi virus (EhV) DNA. We demonstrated by isolating a new infectious EhV strain from a copepod microbiome that these viruses are infectious. We further showed that EhVs can accumulate in high titers within zooplankton guts during feeding or can be adsorbed to their surface. Subsequently, EhV can be dispersed by detachment or via viral-dense fecal pellets over a period of 1 day postfeeding on EhV-infected algal cells, readily infecting new host populations. Intriguingly, the passage through zooplankton guts prolonged EhV's half-life of infectivity by 35%, relative to free virions in seawater, potentially enhancing viral transmission. We propose that zooplankton, swimming through topographically adjacent phytoplankton micropatches and migrating daily over large areas across physically separated water masses, can serve as viral vectors, boosting host-virus contact rates and potentially accelerating the demise of large-scale phytoplankton blooms. PMID:25438947

  4. Population extinction in an inhomogeneous host-pathogen model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagarti, Trilochan

    2016-01-01

    We study inhomogeneous host-pathogen dynamics to model the global amphibian population extinction in a lake basin system. The lake basin system is modeled as quenched disorder. In this model we show that once the pathogen arrives at the lake basin it spreads from one lake to another, eventually spreading to the entire lake basin system in a wave like pattern. The extinction time has been found to depend on the steady state host population and pathogen growth rate. Linear estimate of the extinction time is computed. The steady state host population shows a threshold behavior in the interaction strength for a given growth rate.

  5. Modeling the behavior of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, as a schooling predator exploiting patchy prey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nonacs, Peter; Smith, Paul E.; Bouskila, Amos; Luttbeg, Barney

    Extensive data sets on the bioenergetics of the northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, and the patchy food distribution in its natural habitat allow its foraging dynamics to be inferred by modeling using techniques from population biology and behavioral ecology. The behavioral model consistently predicts that E. mordax grows much more slowly than would be expected with a pure, net-energy intake rate maximization strategy. The reduced growth rates could result from the fish avoiding zooplankton patches, where they are under increased predation risk, by swimming slowly in the waters between zooplankton patches. The combinations of growth rates and daily instantaneous mortality rates generated by the behavioral model are internally consistent with a Lefkovitch matrix population model, which includes an early juvenile stage of a stable and stationary population. Several novel and testable predictions are made by the behavioral model, including: (1) anchovies swim very slowly between zooplankton patch encounters; (2) within a patch fish swim very rapidly while searching for prey; and (3) fish often leave zooplankton patches before totally filling their stomachs. Given these encouraging initial results, the behavioral modeling approach appears to be a valuable technique for examining how potential habitat changes due to global warming may affect fish behavior and populations. Several such scenarios are proposed and discussed.

  6. Stimulus-dependent Maximum Entropy Models of Neural Population Codes

    PubMed Central

    Segev, Ronen; Schneidman, Elad

    2013-01-01

    Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. For large populations, direct sampling of these distributions is impossible, and so we must rely on constructing appropriate models. We show here that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. We introduce the stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model—a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. We find that the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular significantly outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of population codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like average surprise and information transmission in a neural population. PMID:23516339

  7. Surrogate population models for large-scale neural simulations.

    PubMed

    Tripp, Bryan P

    2015-06-01

    Because different parts of the brain have rich interconnections, it is not possible to model small parts realistically in isolation. However, it is also impractical to simulate large neural systems in detail. This article outlines a new approach to multiscale modeling of neural systems that involves constructing efficient surrogate models of populations. Given a population of neuron models with correlated activity and with specific, nonrandom connections, a surrogate model is constructed in order to approximate the aggregate outputs of the population. The surrogate model requires less computation than the neural model, but it has a clear and specific relationship with the neural model. For example, approximate spike rasters for specific neurons can be derived from a simulation of the surrogate model. This article deals specifically with neural engineering framework (NEF) circuits of leaky-integrate-and-fire point neurons. Weighted sums of spikes are modeled by interpolating over latent variables in the population activity, and linear filters operate on gaussian random variables to approximate spike-related fluctuations. It is found that the surrogate models can often closely approximate network behavior with orders-of-magnitude reduction in computational demands, although there are certain systematic differences between the spiking and surrogate models. Since individual spikes are not modeled, some simulations can be performed with much longer steps sizes (e.g., 20 ms). Possible extensions to non-NEF networks and to more complex neuron models are discussed. PMID:25774544

  8. Modeling seasonal interactions in the population dynamics of migratory birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Marra, P.P.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds requires understanding the relevant biological events that occur during breeding, migratory, and overwintering periods. The few available population models for passerine birds focus on breeding-season events, disregard or oversimplify events during nonbreeding periods, and ignore interactions that occur between periods of the annual cycle. Identifying and explicitly incorporating seasonal interactions into population models for migratory birds could provide important insights about when population limitation actually occurs in the annual cycle. We present a population model for the annual cycle of a migratory bird, based on the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) but more generally applicable, that examines the importance of seasonal interactions by incorporating: (1) density dependence during the breeding and winter seasons, (2) a carry-over effect of winter habitat on breeding-season productivity, and (3) the effects of behavioral dominance on seasonal and habitat specific demographic rates. First, we show that habitat availability on both the wintering and breeding grounds can strongly affect equilibrium population size and sex ratio. Second, sex ratio dynamics, as mediated by behavioral dominance, can affect all other aspects of population dynamics. Third, carry-over effects can be strong, especially when winter events are limiting. These results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of migratory birds may require more consideration of the seasonal interactions induced by carry-over effects and density dependence in multiple seasons. This model provides a framework in which to explore more fully these seasonal dynamics and a context for estimation of life history parameters.

  9. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,

  10. Parasitic chytrids sustain zooplankton growth during inedible algal bloom

    PubMed Central

    Rasconi, Serena; Grami, Boutheina; Niquil, Nathalie; Jobard, Marlène; Sime-Ngando, Télesphore

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the quantitative impact of parasitic chytrids on the planktonic food web of two contrasting freshwater lakes during different algal bloom situations. Carbon-based food web models were used to investigate the effects of chytrids during the spring diatom bloom in Lake Pavin (oligo-mesotrophic) and the autumn cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Aydat (eutrophic). Linear inverse modeling was employed to estimate undetermined flows in both lakes. The Monte Carlo Markov chain linear inverse modeling procedure provided estimates of the ranges of model-derived fluxes. Model results confirm recent theories on the impact of parasites on food web function through grazers and recyclers. During blooms of “inedible” algae (unexploited by planktonic herbivores), the epidemic growth of chytrids channeled 19–20% of the primary production in both lakes through the production of grazer exploitable zoospores. The parasitic throughput represented 50% and 57% of the zooplankton diet, respectively, in the oligo-mesotrophic and in the eutrophic lakes. Parasites also affected ecological network properties such as longer carbon path lengths and loop strength, and contributed to increase the stability of the aquatic food web, notably in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Pavin. PMID:24904543

  11. GUIDELINES FOR ZOOPLANKTON SAMPLING IN QUANTITATIVE BASELINE AND MONITORING PROGRAMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Methods applicable to zooplankton sampling and analysis in quantitative baseline and monitoring surveys are evaluated and summarized. Specific recommendations by managers must take into account characteristics of the water mass under investigation, the abundance of contained zoop...

  12. Spatial models of Northern Bobwhite populations for conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Wilson, R.R.; Keister, A.S.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.

  13. Spatial models of northern bobwhite populations for conservation planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Wilson, R.R.; Keister, A.S.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.

  14. Modeling X-Linked Ancestral Origins in Multiparental Populations

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-01-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individuals genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes in a mapping population, which is necessary for developing hidden Markov models in the reconstruction of ancestry blocks for X-linked quantitative trait locus mapping. The model accounts for the joint recombination pattern, the asymmetry between maternally and paternally derived X chromosomes, and the finiteness of population size. The model can be applied to various mapping populations such as the advanced intercross lines (AIL), the Collaborative Cross (CC), the heterogeneous stock (HS), the Diversity Outcross (DO), and the Drosophila synthetic population resource (DSPR). We further derive the map expansion, density (per Morgan) of recombination breakpoints, in advanced intercross populations with L inbred founders under the limit of an infinitely large population size. The analytic results show that for X chromosomes the genetic map expands linearly at a rate (per generation) of two-thirds times 1 10/(9L) for the AIL, and at a rate of two-thirds times 1 1/L for the DO and the HS, whereas for autosomes the map expands at a rate of 1 1/L for the AIL, the DO, and the HS. PMID:25740936

  15. Modeling X-linked ancestral origins in multiparental populations.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Chaozhi

    2015-05-01

    The models for the mosaic structure of an individual's genome from multiparental populations have been developed primarily for autosomes, whereas X chromosomes receive very little attention. In this paper, we extend our previous approach to model ancestral origin processes along two X chromosomes in a mapping population, which is necessary for developing hidden Markov models in the reconstruction of ancestry blocks for X-linked quantitative trait locus mapping. The model accounts for the joint recombination pattern, the asymmetry between maternally and paternally derived X chromosomes, and the finiteness of population size. The model can be applied to various mapping populations such as the advanced intercross lines (AIL), the Collaborative Cross (CC), the heterogeneous stock (HS), the Diversity Outcross (DO), and the Drosophila synthetic population resource (DSPR). We further derive the map expansion, density (per Morgan) of recombination breakpoints, in advanced intercross populations with L inbred founders under the limit of an infinitely large population size. The analytic results show that for X chromosomes the genetic map expands linearly at a rate (per generation) of two-thirds times 1 - 10/(9L) for the AIL, and at a rate of two-thirds times 1 - 1/L for the DO and the HS, whereas for autosomes the map expands at a rate of 1 - 1/L for the AIL, the DO, and the HS. PMID:25740936

  16. Migrant biomass and respiratory carbon flux by zooplankton and micronekton in the subtropical northeast Atlantic Ocean (Canary Islands)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ariza, A.; Garijo, J. C.; Landeira, J. M.; Bordes, F.; Hernández-León, S.

    2015-05-01

    Diel Vertical Migration (DVM) in marine ecosystems is performed by zooplankton and micronekton, promoting a poorly accounted export of carbon to the deep ocean. Major efforts have been made to estimate carbon export due to gravitational flux and to a lesser extent, to migrant zooplankton. However, migratory flux by micronekton has been largely neglected in this context, due to its time-consuming and difficult sampling. In this paper, we evaluated gravitational and migratory flux due to the respiration of zooplankton and micronekton in the northeast subtropical Atlantic Ocean (Canary Islands). Migratory flux was addressed by calculating the biomass of migrating components and measuring the electron transfer system (ETS) activity in zooplankton and dominant species representing micronekton (Euphausia gibboides, Sergia splendens and Lobianchia dofleini). Our results showed similar biomass in both components. The main taxa contributing to DVM within zooplankton were juvenile euphausiids, whereas micronekton were mainly dominated by fish, followed by adult euphausiids and decapods. The contribution to respiratory flux of zooplankton (3.4 ± 1.9 mg C m-2 d-1) was similar to that of micronekton (2.9 ± 1.0 mg C m-2 d-1). In summary, respiratory flux accounted for 53% (range 23-71) of the gravitational flux measured at 150 m depth (11.9 ± 5.8 mg C m-2 d-1). However, based on larger migratory ranges and gut clearance rates, micronekton are expected to be the dominant component that contributes to carbon export in deeper waters. Micronekton estimates in this paper as well as those in existing literature, although variable due to regional differences and difficulties in calculating their biomass, suggest that carbon fluxes driven by this community are important for future models of the biological carbon pump.

  17. MASSCLEAN Multiple Stellar Populations Models of Stellar Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popescu, Bogdan; Hanson, Margaret M.

    2015-08-01

    The age and mass of unresolved or partially resolved stellar clusters can only be estimated using their integrated-light properties of magnitude and colors. Traditional Simple Stellar Population (SSP) models interpret these integrated properties assuming an infinite mass limit. This can lead to catastrophic failures in both age and mass determination when applied to real stellar clusters, particularly with total mass below 104 Msun. New, more sophisticated mass-dependent SSP models provide more accurate age and mass estimates, in better agreement with cluster age determinations using deep photometry Color-Magnitude Diagrams (CMD). But even these modern, mass-dependent SSP models can fail to estimate age and mass if the cluster contains a second stellar population. Our newest mass-dependent Multiple Stellar Populations (MSP) models show the influence of a second population of stars on the integrated light of these complex stellar clusters and their age estimates shows stronger agreement with CMD-derived stellar cluster ages.

  18. Discriminating zooplankton assemblages in neritic and oceanic waters: a case for the northeast coast of India, Bay of Bengal.

    PubMed

    Rakhesh, M; Raman, A V; Sudarsan, D

    2006-02-01

    Zooplankton species distribution and abundance data at 17 locations in the inshore (10-30 m), shelf (50-200 m) and oceanic (2,500-2,800 m) regions off northeast India (Bay of Bengal) during January 1999-April 2001 revealed 112 taxa represented by 30 divergent groups. Copepods (58 species) dominated (87%) the population numerically. In general zooplankton diversity (Margalef richness d, Shannon-Wiener H', Pielou's evenness J') increased in the direction of the open sea relative to coastal locations with a concomitant decrease both in abundance (ind m(-3)) and biomass (dry mass m(-3)). Based on multivariate analyses, it was possible to distinguish the zooplankton community into different assemblages according to their location (e.g., inshore, shelf, oceanic) and seasonality. While Acrocalanus sp., Oithona sp., Corycaeus danae, Euterpina acutifrons, Paracalanus sp., and Acartia sp. were found characterizing the coastal locations, Oncaea venusta was the discriminating species for shelf waters. In oceanic areas, there was a clear dominance of Labidocera sp., Candacia sp., Euchaeta rimana, Centropages calaninus, Copilia mirabilis and Corycella gibbula. The investigations revealed that changes in zooplankton community structure across water bodies could be associated with differing salinity. During November 1999 (post-monsoon), when salinity in the coastal waters was relatively low (26-28.9 PSU), the zooplankton community consisted of mainly Acrocalanus sp., Salpa, Corycaeus danae, Oikopleura sp., Acartia sp., Evadne tergestina, and Creseis sp. In January 2000 (salinity 32.4-34.1), additionally Corycella gibbula, Labidocera sp., Centropages sp., Microsetella sp., Euterpina acutifrons, Canthocalanus pauper, and Oncaea venusta represented the population discriminating the assemblage from others. In May 2000 (pre-monsoon) when salinity was highest (34.7-35.3), Oithona sp., Paracalanus sp., and Acrocalanus gibber were found important. Chaetognaths formed a distinct group during this period. Results presented during this investigation are considered significant since no previous studies exist for this locale drawing comparisons of the kind made during this study between coastal and oceanic situations. PMID:16125769

  19. Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J.; Sgro, Allyson E.; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj

    2015-06-01

    Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales—from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations.

  20. Zooplankton data report: the Marginal Ice Zone Experiment MIZEX, 1984

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, S.L.; Lane, P.V.Z.; Schwarting, E.M.

    1986-03-01

    The Marginal Ice Zone Experiment (MIZEX 84) concentrated on atmospheric, oceanic, and ice interactions in the Fram Strait region of the Greenland Sea, specifically the effect of the retreating ice margin on the productivity in the area and the use of zooplanktonic species as indicators of Arctic and North Atlantic water masses. The data in this report are the quantitative analyses of zooplankton collected while aboard the research vessel Polarstern.

  1. Seasonal cycles of zooplankton from San Francisco Bay

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ambler, Julie W.; Cloern, James E.; Hutchinson, Anne

    1985-01-01

    Seasonal cycles of zooplankton abundance appear to be constant among years (1978–1981) and are similar in the deep (>10 m) channels and lateral shoals (<3 m). The seasonal zooplankton community dynamics are discussed in relation to: (1) river discharge which alters salinity distribution and residence time of plankton; (2) temperature which induces production and hatching of dormant copepod eggs; (3) coastal hydrography which brings neritic copepods of different zoogeographic affinities into the bay; and (4) seasonal cycles of phytoplankton.

  2. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,

  3. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  4. Population dynamics of pond zooplankton II Daphnia ambigua Scourfield

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Angino, E.E.; Armitage, K.B.; Saxena, B.

    1973-01-01

    Calcium was the most important of 27 environmental components affecting density for a 50 week period. Simultaneous stepwise regression accounted for more variability in total number/1 and in the number of ovigerous females/1 than did any of the lag analyses; 1-week lag accounted for the greatest amount of variability in clutch size. Total number and clutch size were little affected by measures of food. ?? 1973 Dr. W. Junk b.v. Publishers.

  5. PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

    SciTech Connect

    Béchaux, Camille; Bodin, Laurent; Clémençon, Stéphan; Crépet, Amélie

    2014-09-15

    As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

  6. Defining priorities for dog population management through mathematical modeling.

    PubMed

    Santos Baquero, O; Akamine, L A; Amaku, M; Ferreira, F

    2016-01-01

    We simulated dog population dynamics for a thirty-years period using a logistic growth model. Through sensitivity analyses, we determined the influence of the parameters used in the model. Carrying capacity was the most influential parameter in all simulations. In the owned-dog population, the influence of immigration, abandonment and births was 19%, 16% and 6% of the influence of the carrying capacity, respectively. In the sterilized owned-dog population, the influence of abandonment, female and male sterilization was 37%, 30% and 27% of the influence of the carrying capacity. In the stray population, the influence of abandonment, carrying capacity of the owned-dog population and adoption was 10%, 9% and 6% of the influence of the carrying capacity. In the sterilized stray population, the influence of births, female sterilization and male sterilization was 45%, 15% and 13% of the influence of the carrying capacity. Other parameters had lower influence values. Modification of the carrying capacity requires different interventions for the owned- and stray-dog populations. Dog trade control is a way to reduce immigration. The evaluation of sterilization effects must focus on the variations in the infertile population fraction. Adoption may improve the effects of the reduction in carrying capacity on the stray-dog population. PMID:26652574

  7. Modelling of Polydispersed Flows using Two Population Balance Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, Sherman C. P.; Duan, Xinyue; Yeoh, Guan H.; Tu, Jiyuan; Krepper, Eckhard; Lucas, Dirk

    2010-03-01

    Polydispersed bubbly flows with wide range of bubble size are commonly encountered in many industrial fields. The use of population balance models coupled with the two-fluid model presents the most viable way of handling such complex flow structures. The main focus of this paper is to access the capabilities of two population balance modelsnamely Average Bubble Number Density (ABND) and Inhomogeneous MUlti-SIze-Group (MUSIG) model; in resolving the dynamical changes of void fraction and bubble size distribution under polydispersed flow conditions. Numerical predictions are validated against two polydispersed flow measurements. Special attentions are directed towards the performance of the two models in capturing the behavioral transition of "wall peak" to "core peak" void fraction profile. Applicability and drawbacks of the two population balance models for industrial applications are also discussed.

  8. Numerical simulations of submesoscale balanced vertical velocity forcing unsteady nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Videz, Lvaro; Claret, Mariona

    2009-04-01

    The effect of submesoscale balanced (void of waves) vertical velocity on initially steady nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) distributions is investigated numerically. First, steady vertical NPZ profiles, continuous but not continuously differentiable at several depths, are found as analytical solutions to the NPZ equations in the absence of flow. These solutions admit numerical equivalents that are continuously differentiable in the numerical sense, here meaning convergence of the vertical derivative with respect to increasing vertical resolution. These NPZ solutions require, however, large vertical resolutions, with a grid size of few centimeters, to be properly discretisized. The ecological model is next coupled to a nonhydrostatic Boussinesq f plane physical model that explicitly conserves potential vorticity on isopycnals. Then the NPZ solutions are used as steady initial ecosystem conditions to investigate the role of submesoscale balanced vertical velocity in forcing NPZ anomalies in an idealized case of a baroclinic unstable jet. The results show that the baroclinic flow rapidly develops balanced vertical velocity that in turn favors NPZ anomalies. A large cancelation between the local change and the horizontal advection occurs in the ecosystem variables. This particularly occurs for zooplankton anomalies that therefore behave as better passive tracers of the horizontal flow than phytoplankton anomalies. However, once phytoplankton and zooplankton anomalies develop locally, forced by vertical velocity, they are horizontally advected away from the upwelling or downwelling regions so that spatial distributions of vertical velocity and ecological fields become eventually uncorrelated.

  9. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  10. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, P.L.; Grand, J.B.; Rockwell, R.F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokvim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (??) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (?? = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on ?? for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  11. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  12. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to populations initiated by a larger number of individuals, where the random effects become negligible. PMID:24928885

  13. A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

    2008-01-01

    The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

  14. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  15. Population-level effects in Amphiascus tenuiremis: contrasting matrix- and individual-based population models.

    PubMed

    Lundström Belleza, Elin; Brinkmann, Markus; Preuss, Thomas G; Breitholtz, Magnus

    2014-12-01

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is generally based on individual-level endpoints, even though protection goals in ERA intend higher biological levels. Population models have the potential to translate individual-level endpoints to population-level responses and range from simple demographic equations to highly complex individual based models (IBMs). The aims of the current study were to develop a matrix model (MM) with the structure and parameterization proposed in the draft OECD guideline "Harpacticoid copepod development and reproduction test with Amphiascus tenuiremis", and an IBM with the same data requirements. Experimental data from lindane exposure from validation studies of the OECD guideline was projected to the population level. Lindane does not only cause effects on survival and reproduction, but also on the time it takes to develop from larvae to adults. The two model approaches were contrasted in terms of their ability to properly project these effects on development. The MM projected smaller effects of the lindane treatments on population growth rate compared to the IBM since in its proposed structure, it did not include the delay in development explicitly. Population-level EC10 for population growth rate in the IBM was at the same level as the most sensitive individual-level endpoint, whereas the EC10 from the MM was not as sensitive. Based on these findings, our conclusion is that the IBM (or an improved MM) should be used for datasets including shifts in development, whereas the simpler MM is sufficient for datasets where only mortality and reproduction are affected, or as a screening tool in lower-tier population-level ERA. PMID:25456235

  16. Zooplankton time series from the Strait of Georgia: Results from year-round sampling at deep water locations, 1990-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackas, David; Galbraith, Moira; Faust, Deborah; Masson, Diane; Young, Kelly; Shaw, William; Romaine, Stephen; Trudel, Marc; Dower, John; Campbell, Rob; Sastri, Akash; Bornhold Pechter, Elizabeth A.; Pakhomov, Evgeny; El-Sabaawi, Rana

    2013-08-01

    We have compiled and archived a large fraction of the zooplankton data collected from the Strait of Georgia during the past 50 years. Although the full dataset is very heterogeneous and gappy, sampling since 1990 has been consistent and frequent enough to examine interannual variability of the full zooplankton community. In this paper we focus on deep tows at mid-Strait deep-water locations, where vertical-migratory zooplankton can be captured at all times of day and all seasons. Average zooplankton dryweight biomass is high (∼9 g m-2) and varies seasonally between a winter minimum (∼4 g m-2) and a broad late-spring to autumn maximum (10-11 g m-2). Much of the biomass in all seasons consists of large crustaceans (copepods, euphausiids and amphipods with oceanic and subarctic zoogeographic affinities) that undergo strong diurnal or seasonal vertical migrations. Their interannual variability is very strong: about an order of magnitude within most zooplankton categories, and nearly two orders of magnitude for euphausiids, large copepods, and chaetognaths. Most (73%) of the interannual variability is accounted for by three principal components. The dominant mode (36%) is a low-frequency decadal fluctuation shared by most zooplankton taxa: declining from 1990 to 1995, increasing to a maximum ∼1999-2002, declining to a second minimum in 2005-2007, and then recovering to near-average levels by 2010. This zooplankton signal correlates positively with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) climate index, negatively with temperature anomalies throughout the water column, and positively (but less consistently) with survival anomalies of Strait of Georgia salmon and herring. Proximal causal mechanisms are less certain, but probably include estuarine advective exchange with outer coast populations, and timing match-mismatch within the Strait.

  17. A decade of predatory control of zooplankton species composition of Lake Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Makarewicz, Joseph C.; Bertram, Paul; Lewis, Theodore; Brown, Edward H., Jr.

    1995-01-01

    From 1983 to 1992, 71 species representing 38 genera from the Calanoida, Cladocera, Cyclopoida, Mysidacea, Rotifera, Mollusca and Harpacticoida comprised the offshore zooplankton community of Lake Michigan. Our data demonstrate that the composition and abundance of the calanoid community after 1983 is not unlike that of 1960s and that species diversity of the calanoid community is more diverse than the cladoceran community in the 1990s as compared to the early 1980s. Even though the relative biomass of the cladocerans has remained similar over the 1983-1993 period, the species diversity and evenness of the Cladocera community in the early 1990s is unlike anything that has been previously reported for Lake Michigan. Cladocera dominance is centered in one species, Daphnia galeata mendotae, and only three species of Cladocera were observed in the pelagic region of the lake in 1991 and 1992. Nutrient levels, phytoplankton biomass, and the abundance of planktivorous alewife and bloater chub and Bythotrephes are examined as possible causes of these changes in zooplankton species composition. The increase in Rotifera biomass, but not Crustacea, was correlated with an increase in relative biomass of unicellular algae. Food web models suggest Bythotrephes will cause Lake Michigan's plankton to return to a community similar to that of the 1970s; that is Diaptomus dominated. Such a change has occurred. However, correlational analysis suggest that alewife and bloater chubs (especially juveniles) are affecting size and biomass of larger species of zooplankton as well as Bythotrephes.

  18. Stable isotope analysis of 1987-1991 zooplankton samples and bowhead whale tissues. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schell, D.M.

    1992-06-01

    Stable isotope analyses of bowhead whale tissue samples and bowhead whale prey organisms collected over the years 1987 to 1991 were used to provide detail on the isotope ratio gradients evident in the arctic Alaskan zooplankton and to verify previous findings regarding the growth rates and age determination techniques developed for bowhead whales. Zooplankton of the Bering and Chukchi seas are enriched in (13)C relative to the eastern Beaufort Sea. The analysis of baleen from bowhead whales taken between 1987 to 1990 indicate that the whales are slow-growing and the young animals between year one and about six to seven years of age, undergo a period of little or no linear growth. The authors estimate that bowheads require 16-18 years to reach the length of sexual maturity, i.e., 13-14 m. From baleen Delta(13C) cycles, a 20 year record of the isotope ratios in the phytoplankton of the northern Bering and Chukchi seas was constructed. The long-term record has been compared with the temperature anomalies in surface waters of the Bering Sea. The Delta(13C) of the zooplankton is inversely correlated with temperature and refutes current models attempting to relate ocean temperature, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with the Delta(13C) of ocean sediment organic matter.

  19. The vertical distribution of zooplankton in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopkins, Thomas L.

    1982-09-01

    The zooplankton community in the eastern Gulf of Mexico was investigated to determine the quantity and taxonomic composition of forage available to higher trophic levels and to provide a data base for future trophodynamic modelling. Standing stock (1.2 g m -2, dw) in the upper 1000 m is in the range for oligotrophic low-latitude boundary currents but is greater than in central gyre areas. Abundance decreases exponentially with depth, over half the biomass occuring in the upper 200 m. Diel variations are apparent, the greatest differences in biomass occuring in the upper 50 m and at 300 to 350 m. Copepods were dominant, contributing over 80% of the number and half the net-caught biomass. The zooplankton community is diverse, 21 genera individually exceeding 1% of the biomass in the 0 to 100-m layer. Grazers (herbivores, detritivores, omnivores) were 66% of the 0 to 1000-m standing stock and carnivores 34%, their biomass in the epipelagic zone above the base of the thermocline (150 m) at night increasing 46 and 57%, respectively. Zooplankton biomass available as forage for higher trophic levels is most concentrated in the upper 50 m, whereas, paradoxically, the zooplanktivorous micronekton, the myctophid fishes in particular, are centered deeper, primarily between 50 and 150 m.

  20. L-Lake zooplankton: L-Lake/Steel Creek Biological Monitoring Program, November 1985--December 1991

    SciTech Connect

    Bowers, J.A.; Bowen, M.

    1992-03-01

    The L- Lake Biological Monitoring Program was designed to meet environmental regulatory requirements associated with the restart of L-Reactor and address portions of Section 316(a) of the Clean Water Act, which requires an applicant for a discharge permit to provide scientific evidence that the discharge causes no significant impact on the indigenous ecosystem. The Department of Energy (DOE) must demonstrate that the discharge of L-Reactor affluent into L Lake will not inhibit the eventual establishment of a ``Balanced Biological Community`` (BBC) in at least 50% of the lake. This report details results of monitoring zooplankton populations in L-Lake.

  1. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  2. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  3. [On the relation between encounter rate and population density: Are classical models of population dynamics justified?].

    PubMed

    Nedorezov, L V

    2015-01-01

    A stochastic model of migrations on a lattice and with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that space is homogenous with respect to its properties and during one time step every individual (independently of local population numbers) can migrate to nearest nodes of lattice with equal probabilities. It is also assumed that population size remains constant during certain time interval of computer experiments. The following variants of estimation of encounter rate between individuals are considered: when for the fixed time moments every individual in every node of lattice interacts with all other individuals in the node; when individuals can stay in nodes independently, or can be involved in groups in two, three or four individuals. For each variant of interactions between individuals, average value (with respect to space and time) is computed for various values of population size. The samples obtained were compared with respective functions of classic models of isolated population dynamics: Verhulst model, Gompertz model, Svirezhev model, and theta-logistic model. Parameters of functions were calculated with least square method. Analyses of deviations were performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Lilliefors test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and other statistical tests. It is shown that from traditional point of view there are no correspondence between the encounter rate and functions describing effects of self-regulatory mechanisms on population dynamics. Best fitting of samples was obtained with Verhulst and theta-logistic models when using the dataset resulted from the situation when every individual in the node interacts with all other individuals. PMID:26606790

  4. Model for the chemotactic response of a bacterial population.

    PubMed Central

    Lapidus, I R; Schiller, R

    1976-01-01

    We present a mathematical model for the motion of a bacterial population in prescribed attractant or repellent gradients. The model is suggested by the observations of Mesibov et al. (1973, J. Gen. Physiol. 62:203) and Brown and Berg (1974, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 71:1388) who found that the sensitivity of the chemotactic response depends on the concentration of attractant. Predictions of the theory are in general agreement with the experiments of Dahlquist et al. (1972, Nat. New Biol. 236:120) and of Mesibov et al. on populations of motile bacteria in fixed attractant gradients. Additional tests of the model are proposed. PMID:938718

  5. Models for age structured populations with distributed maturation rates.

    PubMed

    Plant, R E; Wilson, L T

    1986-01-01

    In the use of age structured population models for agricultural applications such as the modeling of crop-pest interactions it is often essential that the model take into account the distribution in maturation rates present in some or all of the populations. The traditional method for incorporating distributed maturation rates into crop and pest models has been the so-called "distributed delay" method. In this paper we review the application of the distributed delay formalism to the McKendrick equation of an age structured population. We discuss the mathematical properties of the system of ordinary differential equations arising out of the distributed delay formalism. We then discuss an alternative method involving modification of the Leslie matrix. PMID:3958638

  6. Internal models for interpreting neural population activity during sensorimotor control.

    PubMed

    Golub, Matthew D; Yu, Byron M; Chase, Steven M

    2015-01-01

    To successfully guide limb movements, the brain takes in sensory information about the limb, internally tracks the state of the limb, and produces appropriate motor commands. It is widely believed that this process uses an internal model, which describes our prior beliefs about how the limb responds to motor commands. Here, we leveraged a brain-machine interface (BMI) paradigm in rhesus monkeys and novel statistical analyses of neural population activity to gain insight into moment-by-moment internal model computations. We discovered that a mismatch between subjects' internal models and the actual BMI explains roughly 65% of movement errors, as well as long-standing deficiencies in BMI speed control. We then used the internal models to characterize how the neural population activity changes during BMI learning. More broadly, this work provides an approach for interpreting neural population activity in the context of how prior beliefs guide the transformation of sensory input to motor output. PMID:26646183

  7. FISHERY-ORIENTED MODEL OF MARYLAND OYSTER POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    We used time series data to calibrate a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters were fishing mortality, natural mortality, recruitment, and carrying capacity. We calibrated for the Maryland bay as a whole and separately for 3 salinity z...

  8. A POPULATION EXPOSURE MODEL FOR PARTICULATE MATTER: SHEDS-PM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has developed a population exposure and dose model for particulate matter (PM) that will be publicly available in Fall 2002. The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS-PM) model uses a probabilistic approach ...

  9. Characterization of intermittency in zooplankton behaviour in turbulence.

    PubMed

    Michalec, Franois-Gal; Schmitt, Franois G; Souissi, Sami; Holzner, Markus

    2015-10-01

    We consider Lagrangian velocity differences of zooplankters swimming in still water and in turbulence. Using cumulants, we quantify the intermittency properties of their motion recorded using three-dimensional particle tracking velocimetry. Copepods swimming in still water display an intermittent behaviour characterized by a high probability of small velocity increments, and by stretched exponential tails. Low values arise from their steady cruising behaviour while heavy tails result from frequent relocation jumps. In turbulence, we show that at short time scales, the intermittency signature of active copepods clearly differs from that of the underlying flow, and reflects the frequent relocation jumps displayed by these small animals. Despite these differences, we show that copepods swimming in still and turbulent flow belong to the same intermittency class that can be modelled by a log-stable model with non-analytical cumulant generating function. Intermittency in swimming behaviour and relocation jumps may enable copepods to display oriented, collective motion under strong hydrodynamic conditions and thus, may contribute to the formation of zooplankton patches in energetic environments. PMID:26490249

  10. Size-specific sensitivity: Applying a new structured population model

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, M.R.; Ellner, S.P.; Dixon, P.M.

    2000-03-01

    Matrix population models require the population to be divided into discrete stage classes. In many cases, especially when classes are defined by a continuous variable, such as length or mass, there are no natural breakpoints, and the division is artificial. The authors introduce the integral projection model, which eliminates the need for division into discrete classes, without requiring any additional biological assumptions. Like a traditional matrix model, the integral projection model provides estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, stable size distribution, reproductive values, and sensitivities of the growth rate to changes in vital rates. However, where the matrix model represents the size distributions, reproductive value, and sensitivities as step functions (constant within a stage class), the integral projection model yields smooth curves for each of these as a function of individual size. The authors describe a method for fitting the model to data, and they apply this method to data on an endangered plant species, northern monkshood (Aconitum noveboracense), with individuals classified by stem diameter. The matrix and integral models yield similar estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, but the reproductive values and sensitivities in the matrix model are sensitive to the choice of stage classes. The integral projection model avoids this problem and yields size-specific sensitivities that are not affected by stage duration. These general properties of the integral projection model will make it advantageous for other populations where there is no natural division of individuals into stage classes.

  11. Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2013-01-01

    1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposureresponse relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 ?g g?1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposureresponse relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

  12. Mixture regression models for closed population capture-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Tounkara, Fod; Rivest, Louis-Paul

    2015-09-01

    In capture-recapture studies, the use of individual covariates has been recommended to get stable population estimates. However, some residual heterogeneity might still exist and ignoring such heterogeneity could lead to underestimating the population size (N). In this work, we explore two new models with capture probabilities depending on both covariates and unobserved random effects, to estimate the size of a population. Inference techniques including Horvitz-Thompson estimate and confidence intervals for the population size, are derived. The selection of a particular model is carried out using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). First, we extend the random effect model of Darroch et al. (1993, Journal of American Statistical Association 88, 1137-1148) to handle unit level covariates and discuss its limitations. The second approach is a generalization of the traditional zero-truncated binomial model that includes a random effect to account for an unobserved heterogeneity. This approach provides useful tools for inference about N, since key quantities such as moments, likelihood functions and estimates of N and their standard errors have closed form expressions. Several models for the unobserved heterogeneity are available and the marginal capture probability is expressed using the Logit and the complementary Log-Log link functions. The sensitivity of the inference to the specification of a model is also investigated through simulations. A numerical example is presented. We compare the performance of the proposed estimator with that obtained under model Mh of Huggins (1989 Biometrika 76, 130-140). PMID:25963047

  13. Modeling X-ray binary populations in elliptical galaxies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fragos, Tassos; Kalogera, V.; Fabbiano, G.

    2009-09-01

    X-ray binaries are unique astrophysical laboratories as they carry information about many complex physical processes such as star formation, compact object formation, and evolution of interacting binary systems. Motivated by deep Chandra observations of extra-galactic populations of X-ray binaries, I will present theoretical models for the formation and evolution of populations of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) in the two elliptical galaxies NGC 3379 and NGC 4278. The models are calculated with the recently updated StarTrack code, assuming only a primordial galactic field LMXB population. StarTrack is an advanced population synthesis code that has been tested and calibrated using detailed binary star calculations and incorporates all the important physical processes of binary evolution. The simulations are targeted to modeling and understanding the origin of the X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) of point sources in these galaxies. For the first time we explore the population XLF in luminosities below 10E37 erg/s, as probed by the most recent observational results. Furthermore, I will present a physically motivated and self-consistent prescription for the modeling of transient neutron star LMXB properties, such as duty cycle, outburst duration and recurrence time, and compare the model transient LMXB population to the Chandra X-ray survey of the two ellipticals, which revealed several transient sources. Finally, I will briefly talk about an ongoing project towards developing a new advanced computational tool for the study of X-ray binary populations formed in both galactic fields and dense stellar clusters.

  14. Effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on an aquatic ecosystem: acute toxicity and community-level toxic impact tests of benzo[a]pyrene using lake zooplankton community.

    PubMed

    Ikenaka, Yoshinori; Sakamoto, Masaki; Nagata, Takamaru; Takahashi, Hirokazu; Miyabara, Yuichi; Hanazato, Takayuki; Ishizuka, Mayumi; Isobe, Tomohiko; Kim, Jun-Woo; Chang, Kwang-Hyeon

    2013-02-01

    We estimated acute toxicity of benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) using two cladoceran species, Ceriodaphnia reticulata and Daphnia magna, and also analyzed its impact on zooplankton community throughout an exposure experiment using small-scale mesocosms. LC(50) of B[a]P for C. reticulata and D. magna was 4.3 and 4.7 µg/l, respectively. However, individuals fed with Chlorella showed higher LC(50), 6.1 µg/l for C. reticulata and 8.0 µg/l for D. magna. In the exposure experiment, we examined the impact of B[a]P on zooplankton community using conceivable concentrations in the environment (5 and 10 µg/l) using typical zooplankton community in eutrophicated systems. Despite the residence time of B[a]P in the water column was short as < 4 days, application of B[a]P induced decrease of zooplankton abundance. However, the recovery pattern was different among cladocerans and rotifers. Consequently, B[a]P showed insecticide-like impacts, suppressing cladoceran populations and inducing the dominance of rotifers particularly under high concentration (10 µg/l). Results have suggested that, even such short duration of B[a]P in the water body can have impact on zooplankton abundance and community structure. Since B[a]P easily precipitate to the bottom and rapidly disappears from the water body, careful monitoring and further assessment of the potential toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are necessary. PMID:23358147

  15. Analysis of six groups of zooplankton in samples taken in 1978/79 at the proposed OTEC site in the eastern Gulf of Mexico off Tampa Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Flock, M.E.; Hopkins, T.L.

    1981-05-01

    Continued analysis has been made of the 33 zooplankton collections made at the proposed OTEC site in the Gulf of Mexico off Tampa Bay. Six groups of zooplankton - siphonophores (Calycophora), pteropods (Thecosomata), chaetognaths, thaliaceans, euphausiids and amphipods were quantitatively investigated. Numbers and biomass were determined for all taxa and diurnal, seasonal and depth trends were discussed. Considering the present study and the previous investigation of the copepod population, this proposed OTEC site is probably one of the faunistically better known locales in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

  16. [Non-predatory mortality of the crustacean zooplankton and its possible causes (a literature review)].

    PubMed

    Dubovskaia, O P

    2009-01-01

    General mortality (death rate, d) in natural populations of the crustacean zooplankton is calculated as difference between birth rate (b) and population growth rate (r). The mortality includes both predatory (consumptive) and non-predatory (non-consumptive), or "natural", deaths of individuals due to senescence, diseases and parasites, starvation, limiting physical and chemical factors of anthropogenic or natural origin. Modem methods of evaluation of non-predatory mortality of the plankton crustaceans, including direct method based on live/dead sorting by special staining of samples and measurements of sedimentation rate of dead individuals using a sedimentation trap are briefly characterized. Possible causes of non-predatory mortality of crustacean are examined based on different (mainly fresh) temperate water bodies. The possible causes are classified as: physical conditions including temperature, wind effects, ultraviolet radiation, water turbidity, current velocity; chemical conditions including concentration of dissolved oxygen, pH value, water toxicity of both anthropogenic (due to pollutant inflow) and natural (due to cyanobacterial bloom and ingestion of some toxic diatoms by copepods) origin; parasites and epibionts; bottom-up factors or food limitation including quantity and quality of food, the former as content of carbon (energy) and the latter as content of essential compounds in food. It is concluded that, for the populations of crustacean herbivorous zooplankton, the biotic factors appeared to be more important and more probable causes of non-predatory mortality than the abiotic ones, under conditions of non-acid water bodies of the temperate zone when the current speed is less than critical one (0.25 m/c) and in absence of the anthropogenic toxicants. These factors are primarily a food poor quality due to low content of phosphorus, nitrogen, polyunsaturated fatty acids of omega3 family and others, as well as microparasites causing infections and, to a lesser extent (just in blooming water bodies), natural toxicity of cyanobacteria. Non-optimal for the zooplankton physical and chemical factors, as causes of non-predatory mortality of plankton crustaceans, appeared to be less important because of their acting episodically in time locally in space, so the zooplankton is able to avoid their effects and to regenerate fast. PMID:19425353

  17. A new model with delay for mosquito population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Wan, Hui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we formulate a new model with maturation delay for mosquito population incorporating the impact of blood meal resource for mosquito reproduction. Our results suggest that except for the usual crowded effect for adult mosquitoes, the impact of blood meal resource in a given region determines the mosquito abundance, it is also important for the population dynamics of mosquito which may induce Hopf bifurcation. The existence of a stable periodic solution is proved both analytically and numerically. The new model for mosquito also suggests that the resources for mosquito reproduction should not be ignored or mixed with the impact of blood meal resources for mosquito survival and both impacts should be considered in the model of mosquito population. The impact of maturation delay is also analyzed. PMID:25365606

  18. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  19. Role of toxin and nutrient for the occurrence and termination of plankton bloom--results drawn from field observations and a mathematical model.

    PubMed

    Pal, S; Chatterjee, Samrat; Chattopadhyay, J

    2007-01-01

    The termination of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and coexistence of phytoplankton-zooplankton populations are of great importance to human health, ecosystem, environment, tourism and fisheries. In this paper we propose a three-component model consisting of dissolved limiting nutrients (N) supplied at constant rate and partially recycled after the death of plankton by bacterial decomposition, phytoplankton (P) and zooplankton (Z), where the growth of zooplankton species reduce due to toxic chemicals released by phytoplankton species. Our analysis leads to different thresholds which are expressible in terms of model parameters and determine the existence and stability of various states of the system. We observe that phytoplankton-zooplankton persist if the maximal zooplankton ingestion rate exceeds a lower threshold value. It is shown that the coexistence equilibrium loses its stability when the dilution rate of the nutrient concentration passes through a critical value and Hopf bifurcation occurs that induces oscillations of the population. Our results indicate that the occurrence of bloom increases when the nutrient concentration is very high, and in that case toxin produced by the phytoplankton plays a very crucial role towards the termination of the planktonic bloom. PMID:17194523

  20. Can overwintering versus diapausing strategy in Daphnia determine match-mismatch events in zooplankton-algae interactions?

    PubMed

    de Senerpont Domis, Lisette N; Mooij, Wolf M; Hlsmann, Stephan; van Nes, Egbert H; Scheffer, Marten

    2007-01-01

    Mismatches between predator and prey due to climate change have now been documented for a number of systems. Ultimately, a mismatch may have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem functioning as decoupling of trophic relationships results in trophic cascades. Here, we examine the potential for climate change induced mismatches between zooplankton and algae during spring succession, with a focus on Daphnia and its algal food. Whereas the development of an overwintering population of daphnids may parallel shifts in phytoplankton phenology due to climate warming, changes in the photoperiod-temperature interaction may cause the emerging population of daphnids to hatch too late and mismatch their phytoplankton prey. A decoupling of the trophic relationship between the keystone herbivore Daphnia and its algal prey can result in the absence of a spring clear water phase. We extended an existing minimal model of seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae and varied the way the Daphnia population is started in spring, i.e., from free swimming individuals or from hatching resting eggs. Our model results show that temperature affects the timing of peak abundance in Daphnia and algae, and subsequently the timing of the clear water phase. When a population is started from a small inoculum of hatching resting eggs, extreme climate warming (+6 degrees C) results in a decoupling of trophic relationships and the clear water phase fails to occur. In the other scenarios, the trophic relationships between Daphnia and its algal food source remain intact. Analysis of 36 temperate lakes showed that shallow lakes have a higher potential for climate induced match-mismatches, as the probability of active overwintering daphnids decreases with lake depth. Future research should point out whether lake depth is a direct causal factor in determining the presence of active overwintering daphnids or merely indicative for underlying causal factors such as fish predation and macrophyte cover. PMID:17024385

  1. Ancestral population genomics: the coalescent hidden Markov model approach.

    PubMed

    Dutheil, Julien Y; Ganapathy, Ganesh; Hobolth, Asger; Mailund, Thomas; Uyenoyama, Marcy K; Schierup, Mikkel H

    2009-09-01

    With incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), the genealogy of closely related species differs along their genomes. The amount of ILS depends on population parameters such as the ancestral effective population sizes and the recombination rate, but also on the number of generations between speciation events. We use a hidden Markov model parameterized according to coalescent theory to infer the genealogy along a four-species genome alignment of closely related species and estimate population parameters. We analyze a basic, panmictic demographic model and study its properties using an extensive set of coalescent simulations. We assess the effect of the model assumptions and demonstrate that the Markov property provides a good approximation to the ancestral recombination graph. Using a too restricted set of possible genealogies, necessary to reduce the computational load, can bias parameter estimates. We propose a simple correction for this bias and suggest directions for future extensions of the model. We show that the patterns of ILS along a sequence alignment can be recovered efficiently together with the ancestral recombination rate. Finally, we introduce an extension of the basic model that allows for mutation rate heterogeneity and reanalyze human-chimpanzee-gorilla-orangutan alignments, using the new models. We expect that this framework will prove useful for population genomics and provide exciting insights into genome evolution. PMID:19581452

  2. Mesoscale physical variability affects zooplankton production in the Labrador Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yebra, L.; Harris, R. P.; Head, E. J. H.; Yashayaev, I.; Harris, L. R.; Hirst, A. G.

    2009-05-01

    Surface distribution (0-100 m) of zooplankton biomass and specific aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (AARS) activity, as a proxy of structural growth, were assessed during winter 2002 and spring 2004 in the Labrador Sea. Two fronts formed by strong boundary currents, several anticyclonic eddies and a cyclonic eddy were studied. The spatial contrasts observed in seawater temperature, salinity and fluorescence, associated with those mesoscale structures, affected the distributions of both zooplankton biomass and specific AARS activity, particularly those of the smaller individuals. Production rates of large organisms (200-1000 ?m) were significantly related to microzooplankton biomass (63-200 ?m), suggesting a cascade effect from hydrography through microzooplankton to large zooplankton. Water masses defined the biomass distribution of the three dominant species: Calanus glacialis was restricted to cold waters on the shelves while Calanus hyperboreus and Calanus finmarchicus were widespread from Canada to Greenland. Zooplankton production was up to ten-fold higher inside anticyclonic eddies than in the surrounding waters. The recent warming tendency observed in the Labrador Sea will likely generate weaker convection and less energetic mesoscale eddies. This may lead to a decrease in zooplankton growth and production in the Labrador basin.

  3. Zooplankton communities of a new pumped storage reservoir

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, D.U.; Meyer, J.L.

    1982-08-01

    Zooplankton colonization was followed for 16 months in Lake Oconee, Georgia, a new pumped storage reservoir. Data were interpreted to identify differences among stations and seasons, as a function of the reservoir's early stage of development and of pumped storage operations. Colonization was rapid, and the zooplankton community was characterized by a high species diversity; approximately 40 rotifer species and 14 cladoceran genera were recorded. Zooplankton density varied along an environmental gradient from riverine to lentic conditions. Rotifer abundance varied from 10/sup 4/-10/sup 6/ individuals/m/sup 3/, with maxima in the summers. Copepod and cladoceran densities ranged from 10/sup 3/ to nearly 10/sup 5/ individuals/m/sup 3/; maxima for stations other than the dam were observed in the summer and early fall, but high values at the dam station occurred throughout winter 1980. When pumped storage operations began in December 1979, zooplankton densities increased at the dam station. Pumpback decreased the intensity of the environmental gradient from riverine to lentic conditions, and led to a more similar zooplankton community structure throughout the reservoir.

  4. Nitrogen isotopic ratios in fecal pellets produced by marine zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Altabet, M.A. ); Small, L.F. )

    1990-01-01

    At each site and in every season studied, zooplankton in the upper ocean produced fecal pellets that were 1.3% lower in {delta}{sup 15}N than their body tissue but 2.2% higher than their apparent food source. {sup 14}N-containing molecules are evidently preferentially assimilated in zooplankton intestinal tracts, though other isotopic effects must account for the enrichment in {sup 15}N of these organisms relative to their food. These results also show zooplankton to be important modifiers of nitrogen isotopic ratios for marine particulate matter. {delta}{sup 15}N values for sinking particles and fecal pellets are similar, supporting the perspective that macrozooplankton are important factors in producing and processing particles that sink into the ocean's interior and sediments. In contrast, the relationship in {delta}{sup 15}N between fecal pellets and suspended particles in the euphotic zone is more variable. It appears that zooplankton select food particles of varying {delta}{sup 15}N from the suspended particle pool. These results suggest that both zooplankton feeding behavior and their digestive chemistry are important in determining the composition of sinking particulate matter in the ocean with respect to the suspended particle source in the euphotic zone.

  5. Zooplankton structure and dynamics in two estuaries from the Atlantic coast in relation to multi-stressors exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, L. R.; Guilhermino, L.; Morgado, F.

    2015-12-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the response of pelagic zooplankton to different levels of abiotic multi-stressors in the North Atlantic coast, taking advantage of the comparison of the communities of two adjacent estuaries with different levels of historical pollution (estuaries of Minho and Lima Rivers). The zooplankton community structure, composition and temporal variation were comparatively investigated for 15 months, using different net meshes. Several abiotic factors were measured in situ and water samples were simultaneously collected for determination of nutrients and chlorophyll a. The overall results revealed a diverse community represented by species that have been found in subtropical and temperate zones. Although the highest diversity was observed in the Lima estuary, supported by higher contributions of marine taxa, the total zooplankton biomass was found to be significantly higher in the Minho estuary. The salinity gradient differences between estuaries, associated to significant differences in water nutrients levels, were found to be the main forcing factors affecting micro and mesozooplankton. Considering the importance of the impacts resulting from abiotic variation on the basis of aquatic food webs, the present investigation represented a case-study, based in two contrasting estuaries, one strongly influenced by freshwater discharges (Minho estuary) and the other with higher salinity levels (Lima estuary), contributing to a better understanding of the effects of multi-stressors on pelagic zooplankton communities, providing useful information for studies related with climate change impacts, biogeography, conservation and providing data contributing to the improvement of pelagic fisheries management models.

  6. Time-delayed coupled logistic capacity model in population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cáceres, Manuel O.

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes a delay-coupled system based on the logistic equation that models the interaction of a population with its varying environment. The integro-diferential equations of the model are presented in terms of a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity equation. The model eliminates the need for a prior knowledge of the maximum saturation environmental carrying capacity value. Therefore the dynamics toward the final attractor in a distributed time-delayed coupled logistic-capacity model is studied. Exact results are presented, and analytical conclusions have been done in terms of the two parameters of the model.

  7. Population based models of cortical drug response: insights from anaesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Bojak, Ingo; Liley, David T. J.

    2008-01-01

    A great explanatory gap lies between the molecular pharmacology of psychoactive agents and the neurophysiological changes they induce, as recorded by neuroimaging modalities. Causally relating the cellular actions of psychoactive compounds to their influence on population activity is experimentally challenging. Recent developments in the dynamical modelling of neural tissue have attempted to span this explanatory gap between microscopic targets and their macroscopic neurophysiological effects via a range of biologically plausible dynamical models of cortical tissue. Such theoretical models allow exploration of neural dynamics, in particular their modification by drug action. The ability to theoretically bridge scales is due to a biologically plausible averaging of cortical tissue properties. In the resulting macroscopic neural field, individual neurons need not be explicitly represented (as in neural networks). The following paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction to the mean field population modelling of drug action and its recent successes in modelling anaesthesia. PMID:19003456

  8. Model estimation of energy flow in Oregon coastal seabird populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiens, J.A.; Scott, J.M.

    1976-01-01

    A computer simulation model was used to explore the patterns and magnitudes of population density changes and population energy demands in Oregon populations of Sooty Shear-waters, Leach?s Storm-Petrels, Brandt?s Cormorants, and Common Murres. The species differ in seasonal distribution and abundance, with shearwaters attaining high densities during their migratory movements through Oregon waters, and murres exhibiting the greatest seasonal stability in population numbers. On a unit area basis, annual energy flow is greatest through murre and cormorant populations. However, because shearwaters occupy a larger area during their transit, they dominate the total energy flow through the four-species seabird ?community.?.....Consumption of various prey types is estimated by coupling model output of energy demands with information on dietary habits. This analysis suggests that murres annually consume nearly twice as many herring as any other prey and consume approximately equal quantities of anchovy, smelt, cod, and rockfish. Cormorants consume a relatively small quantity of bottom-dwelling fish, while stormpetrels take roughly equal quantities of euphausiids and hydrozoans. Anchovies account for 43% of the 62,506 metric tons of prey the four species are estimated to consume annually; 86% of this anchovy consumption is by shearwaters. The consumption of pelagic fishes by these four populations within the neritic zone may represent as much as 22% of the annual production of these fish.

  9. Changes in fatty acid and hydrocarbon composition of zooplankton assemblages related to environmental conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Lambert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    Changes in zooplankton fatty acid and hydrocarbon patterns are described in relation to changes in environmental conditions and species composition. The regulation of zooplankton abundance by sea nettle-ctenophore interaction was examined in a small Rhode Island coastal pond. Sea nettles were nettles were able to eliminate ctenophores from the pond and subsequently zooplankton abundance increased. During one increase in zooplankton abundance, it was found that polyunsaturated fatty acids decreased while monounsaturated fatty acids increased. It was concluded that this shift in biochemical pattern was due to food limitation. In addition, zooplankton fatty acids were used in multivariate discriminant analysis to classify whether zooplankton were from coastal or estuarine environments. Zooplankton from coastal environments were characterized by higher monounsaturate fatty acids. Zooplankton hydrocarbon composition was affected by species composition and by pollution inputs. The presence of Calanus finmarchicus was detected by increased levels of pristane.

  10. Locomotor adaptations of some gelatinous zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Bone, Q

    1985-01-01

    Swimming behaviour and locomotor adaptations are described in chaetognaths, larvacean tunicates, some cnidaria, and thaliacean tunicates. The first two groups swim by oscillating a flattened tail, the others by jet propulsion. In chaetognaths, the locomotor muscle fibres are extensively coupled and relatively sparsely innervated, they exhibit compound spike-like potentials. The motoneurons controlling the rhythmic activity of the locomotor muscle lie in a ventral ganglion whose organization is briefly described. Rhythmic swimming bursts in larvaceans are similarly driven by a caudal ganglion near the base of the tail, but each caudal muscle cell is separately innervated by two sets of motor nerves, as well as being coupled to its neighbours. The external epithelium is excitable, and linked to the caudal ganglion by the axons of central cells. Mechanical stimulation of the epithelium evokes receptor potentials followed by action potentials and by bursts of rapid swimming. The trachyline medusa Aglantha and the small siphonophore Chelophyes also show rapid escape responses; in Aglantha these are driven by a specialized giant axon system lacking in other hydromedusae, and in Chelophyes. Slow swimming in Aglantha apparently involves a second nerve supply to the same muscle sheets used in rapid swimming, whereas in Chelophyes slow swimming results from the activity of the smaller posterior nectophore. Slow swimming in siphonophores is more economical than the rapid responses. In the hydrozoan medusa Polyorchis (as in Chelophyes) action potentials in the locomotor muscle sheet change in shape during swimming bursts, and their duration is related to the size of the medusa; they are not simply triggers of muscular contraction. The two groups of thaliacean tunicates are specialized differently. Doliolum is adapted for single rapid jet pulses (during which it achieves instantaneous velocities of 50 body lengths s-l), whilst salps are adapted for slow continuous swimming. The cost of locomotion is greater in Doliolum. Few gelatinous zooplankton show special adaptations both for rapid escape movements, and for slow sustained swimming, those that do deserve further study. PMID:2871635

  11. Birth-death branching models. Application to African elephant populations.

    PubMed

    Corbacho, Casimiro; Molina, Manuel; Mota, Manuel; Ramos, Alfonso

    2013-09-01

    Branching models have a long history of biological applications, particularly in population dynamics. In this work, our interest is the development of mathematical models to describe the demographic dynamics of socially structured animal populations, focusing our attention on lineages, usually matrilines, as the basic structure in the population. Significant efforts have been made to develop models based on the assumption that all individuals behave identically with respect to reproduction. However, the reproduction phase has a large random component that involves not only demographic but also environmental factors that change across range distribution of species. In the present work, we introduce new classes of birth-death branching models which take such factors into account. We assume that both, the offspring probability distribution and the death probabilities may be different in each generation, changing either predictably or unpredictably in relation to habitat features. We consider the genealogical tree generated by observation of the process until a pre-set generation. We determine the probability distributions of the random variables representing the number of dead or living individuals having at least one ancestor alive, living individuals whose ancestors are all dead, and dead individuals whose ancestors are all dead, explicitly obtaining their principal moments. Also, we derive the probability distributions corresponding to the partial and total numbers of such biological variables, obtaining in particular the distribution of the total number of matriarchs in the genealogical tree. We apply the proposed models to describe the demographic dynamics of African elephant populations living in different habitats. PMID:23648183

  12. GIS-Based Population Model Applied to Nevada Transportation Routes

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.

    1999-03-04

    Recently, a model based on geographic information system (GIS) processing of US Census Block data has made high-resolution population analysis for transportation risk analysis technically and economically feasible. Population density bordering each kilometer of a route may be tabulated with specific route sections falling into each of three categories (Rural, Suburban or Urban) identified for separate risk analysis. In addition to the improvement in resolution of Urban areas along a route, the model provides a statistically-based correction to population densities in Rural and Suburban areas where Census Block dimensions may greatly exceed the 800-meter scale of interest. A semi-automated application of the GIS model to a subset of routes in Nevada (related to the Yucca Mountain project) are presented, and the results compared to previous models including a model based on published Census and other data. These comparisons demonstrate that meaningful improvement in accuracy and specificity of transportation risk analyses is dependent on correspondingly accurate and geographically-specific population density data.

  13. Modeling X-ray Binary Populations in Elliptical Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fragos, T.; Kalogera, V.

    2010-12-01

    We present theoretical models for populations of low-mass X-ray binaries in two elliptical galaxies NGC3379 and NGC4278. The models are calculated with the recently updated StarTrack code [1], and are targeted to modeling and understanding the origin of the X-ray luminosity functions (XLF) in these galaxies. For the first time we explore the population XLF down to luminosities of 31036 erg s-1, as probed by the most recent observational results [2]. We consider models for the formation and evolution of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXB) in galactic fields with different common envelope efficiencies, stellar wind prescriptions and initial mass functions. We identify models that produce an XLF in excellent agreement with the observations both in shape and number of systems at a specific luminosity. We also find that the treatment of the outburst luminosity of transient systems remains a crucial parameter for the determination of the XLF as the modeled populations are dominated by transient X-ray systems. Finally, we propose a physically motivated and self-consistent prescription for the modeling of transient neutron star (NS) LMXB properties, such as duty cycle (DC), outburst duration and recurrence time. We compare the transient LMXB population to the Chandra X-ray survey of the two elliptical galaxies NGC3379 and NGC4278, which revealed several transient sources [3, 4]. Our comparison suggests that transient LMXBs are very rare in globular clusters (GC), and thus the number of identified transient LMXBs may be used as a tracer of the relative contribution of field and GC LMXB populations.

  14. Functional responses for zooplankton feeding on multiple resources: a review of assumptions and biological dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gentleman, Wendy; Leising, Andrew; Frost, Bruce; Strom, Suzanne; Murray, James

    2003-11-01

    Modelers often need to quantify the rates at which zooplankton consume a variety of species, size classes and trophic types. Implicit in the equations used to describe the multiple resource functional response (i.e. how nutritional intake varies with resource densities) are assumptions that are not often stated, let alone tested. This is problematic because models are sensitive to the details of these formulations. Here, we enable modelers to make more informed decisions by providing them with a new framework for considering zooplankton feeding on multiple resources. We define a new classification of multiple resource responses that is based on preference, selection and switching, and we develop a set of mathematical diagnostics that elucidate model assumptions. We use these tools to evaluate the assumptions and biological dynamics inherent in published multiple resource responses. These models are shown to simulate different resource preferences, implied single resource responses, changes in intake with changing resource densities, nutritional benefits of generalism, and nutritional costs of selection. Certain formulations are further shown to exhibit anomalous dynamics such as negative switching and sub-optimal feeding. Such varied responses can have vastly different ecological consequences for both zooplankton and their resources; inappropriate choices may incorrectly quantify biologically-mediated fluxes and predict spurious dynamics. We discuss how our classes and diagnostics can help constrain parameters, interpret behaviors, and identify limitations to a formulation's applicability for both regional (e.g. High-Nitrate-Low-Chlorophyll regions comprising large areas of the Pacific) and large-scale applications (e.g. global biogeochemical or climate change models). Strategies for assessing uncertainty and for using the mathematics to guide future experimental investigations are also discussed.

  15. Molecular markers of zooplankton dispersal in the ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucklin, Ann

    1995-07-01

    Ocean circulation patterns determine in large part the patterns of biological productivity in coastal and oceanic waters. Prediction of the spatial patterns of secondary production in the ocean is particularly difficult since dispersal of zooplankton is a function of both passive transport and active swimming by zooplankton, which may exhibit highly variable behavioral responses to flow. Quantitative estimates of dispersal are particularly difficult to obtain for marine zooplankton; the difficulty of direct observation of dispersal processes is magnified by their small size and numerical abundance and by the vast distances they traverse. The inaccessibility of the open ocean further compounds the problem, since many parts of the ocean are difficult to sample with the spatial intensity and temporal frequency necessary to determine dispersal processes. Unlike biomass and abundance estimates for marine planktonic species, dispersal processes may not be amenable to remote monitoring.

  16. YONSEI EVOLUTIONARY POPULATION SYNTHESIS (YEPS) MODEL. I. SPECTROSCOPIC EVOLUTION OF SIMPLE STELLAR POPULATIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Chung, Chul; Yoon, Suk-Jin; Lee, Sang-Yoon; Lee, Young-Wook

    2013-01-15

    We present a series of papers on the 2012 version of the Yonsei Evolutionary Population Synthesis (YEPS) model, which was constructed based on over 20 years of research. This first paper delineates the spectroscopic aspect of integrated light from stellar populations older than 1 Gyr. The standard YEPS is based on the most up-to-date Yonsei-Yale stellar evolutionary tracks and BaSel 3.1 flux libraries, and provides absorption line indices of the Lick/IDS system and high-order Balmer lines for simple stellar populations as functions of stellar parameters, such as metallicity, age, and {alpha}-element mixture. Special care has been taken to incorporate a systematic contribution from horizontal-branch (HB) stars, which alters the temperature-sensitive Balmer lines significantly, resulting in up to a 5 Gyr difference in the age estimation of old, metal-poor stellar populations. We also find that HBs exert an appreciable effect not only on the Balmer lines but also on the metallicity-sensitive lines, including the magnesium index. This is critical in explaining the intriguing bimodality found in index distributions of globular clusters in massive galaxies and to accurately derive spectroscopic metallicities from various indices. A full set of the spectroscopic and photometric YEPS model data of the entire parameter space is currently downloadable at http://web.yonsei.ac.kr/cosmic/data/YEPS.htm.

  17. Modeling Population Exposures to Silver Nanoparticles Present in Consumer Products

    PubMed Central

    Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-01-01

    Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (Geographic Information System) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human Life Stage Analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employs screening Microenvironmental Modeling and Intake Fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically-relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters. PMID:25745354

  18. High mortality of Red Sea zooplankton under ambient solar radiation.

    PubMed

    Al-Aidaroos, Ali M; El-Sherbiny, Mohsen M O; Satheesh, Sathianeson; Mantha, Gopikrishna; Agustī, Susana; Carreja, Beatriz; Duarte, Carlos M

    2014-01-01

    High solar radiation along with extreme transparency leads to high penetration of solar radiation in the Red Sea, potentially harmful to biota inhabiting the upper water column, including zooplankton. Here we show, based on experimental assessments of solar radiation dose-mortality curves on eight common taxa, the mortality of zooplankton in the oligotrophic waters of the Red Sea to increase steeply with ambient levels of solar radiation in the Red Sea. Responses curves linking solar radiation doses with zooplankton mortality were evaluated by exposing organisms, enclosed in quartz bottles, allowing all the wavelengths of solar radiation to penetrate, to five different levels of ambient solar radiation (100%, 21.6%, 7.2%, 3.2% and 0% of solar radiation). The maximum mortality rates under ambient solar radiation levels averaged (±standard error of the mean, SEM) 18.4±5.8% h(-1), five-fold greater than the average mortality in the dark for the eight taxa tested. The UV-B radiation required for mortality rates to reach ½ of maximum values averaged (±SEM) 12±5.6 h(-1)% of incident UVB radiation, equivalent to the UV-B dose at 19.2±2.7 m depth in open coastal Red Sea waters. These results confirm that Red Sea zooplankton are highly vulnerable to ambient solar radiation, as a consequence of the combination of high incident radiation and high water transparency allowing deep penetration of damaging UV-B radiation. These results provide evidence of the significance of ambient solar radiation levels as a stressor of marine zooplankton communities in tropical, oligotrophic waters. Because the oligotrophic ocean extends across 70% of the ocean surface, solar radiation can be a globally-significant stressor for the ocean ecosystem, by constraining zooplankton use of the upper levels of the water column and, therefore, the efficiency of food transfer up the food web in the oligotrophic ocean. PMID:25309996

  19. Zooplankton Successions in Neighboring Lakes with Contrasting Impacts of Amphibian and Fish Predators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schabetsberger, Robert; Grill, Susanne; Hauser, Gabriele; Wukits, Petra

    2006-06-01

    Two pairs of neighboring subalpine lakes located in the Northern Calcareous Alps of Austria were investigated. Each pair comprised a deeper lake containing European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus ), and a corresponding shallower lake harboring Alpine newts (Triturus alpestris ) as top predators. Plankton successions within fish and amphibian lakes differed markedly from each other. Throughout the year rotifers numerically dominated within the minnow lakes, while pigmented copepods (Genera Heterocope, Acanthodiaptomus , Arctodiaptomus , Mixodiaptomus ) and Daphnia were prominent in the amphibian lakes, at least early during the ice-free period. We argue that size-selective predation by minnows was the ultimate reason for this predominance of smaller zooplankton. While one of the minnow lakes was characterized by a succession of spatially and temporally segregated rotifer species, the other minnow lake permitted the development of populations of small-sized Bosmina and Ceriodaphnia during summer, probably due to the existence of a strong oxycline allowing zooplankton crustaceans to avoid predation from shore-based shoals of minnows. Once trout were introduced into this lake, minnows were visibly reduced in abundance. Bosmina and Ceriodaphnia disappeared and Daphnia together with a predacious copepod (Heterocope ) emerged either from egg banks or arrived from nearby source populations. We argue that the crustacean communities within the fishless lakes were adapted to the comparatively weak predation rates of Alpine newts.

  20. Effects of hydrology on zooplankton communities in high-mountain ponds, Mount Rainier National Park, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Girdner, Scott; Larson, Gary L.

    1995-01-01

    Ten high-mountain ponds in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington State, were studied from ice-out in June through September1992 to investigate the influences of fluctuating pond volumes on zooplankton communities. All of the ponds were at maximum volume immediately after ice-out. The temporary pond with the shortest wet phase was inhabited by rotifer taxa with short generation times and a crustacean taxon with the ability to encyst as drought-resistant resting bodies at immature stages of development. Dominant zooplankton taxa in three other temporary ponds and six permanent ponds were similar. Rotifer densities typically were lower in temporary ponds relative to those in permanent ponds, although Brachionus urceolaris was abundant shortly before the temporary ponds dried. Large volume loss was associated with large declines in total abundances of crustacean populations. Daphnia rosea was not present in temporary ponds following fall recharge. In deep-permanent ponds, copepods had slower developmental rates, smaller temporal changes in total abundances of crustacean populations and two additional large-bodied crustacean taxa were present relative to the characteristics of crustacean communities in shallow-permanent ponds. Owing to their small sizes and sensitivity to environmental change, collectively ponds such as these may provide an early signal of long-term climate change in aquatic systems.

  1. Imazethapyr and imazapic, bispyribac-sodium and penoxsulam: zooplankton and dissipation in subtropical rice paddy water.

    PubMed

    Reimche, Geovane B; Machado, Srgio L O; Oliveira, Maria Anglica; Zanella, Renato; Dressler, Valderi Luiz; Flores, Erico M M; Gonalves, Fbio F; Donato, Filipe F; Nunes, Matheus A G

    2015-05-01

    Herbicides are very effective at eliminating weed and are largely used in rice paddy around the world, playing a fundamental role in maximizing yield. Therefore, considering the flooded environment of rice paddies, it is necessary to understand the side effects on non-target species. Field experiment studies were carried out during two rice growing seasons in order to address how the commonly-used herbicides imazethapyr and imazapic, bispyribac-sodium and penoxsulam, used at recommended dosage, affect water quality and the non-target zooplankton community using outdoor rice field microcosm set-up. The shortest (4.9 days) and longest (12.2 days) herbicide half-life mean, estimated of the dissipation rate (k) is shown for imazethapyr and bispyribac-sodium, respectively. Some water quality parameters (pH, conductivity, hardness, BOD5, boron, potassium, magnesium, phosphorus and chlorides) achieved slightly higher values at the herbicide treatment. Zooplankton community usually quickly recovered from the tested herbicide impact. Generally, herbicides led to an increase of cladocera, copepods and nauplius population, while rotifer population decreased, with recovery at the end of the experiment (88 days after herbicide treatment). PMID:25659307

  2. SOC in a population model with global control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brker, Hans-Martin; Grassberger, Peter

    We study a plant population model introduced recently by Wallinga (OIKOS 74 (1995) 377). It is similar to the contact process (simple epidemic, directed percolation), but instead of using an infection or recovery rate as control parameter, the population size is controlled directly and globally by removing excess plants. We show that the model is very closely related to directed percolation (DP). Anomalous scaling laws appear in the limit of large populations, small densities, and long times. These laws, associated critical exponents, and even some non-universal parameters, can be related to those of DP. As in invasion percolation and in other models where the rles of control and order parameters are interchanged, the critical value pc of the wetting probability p is obtained in the scaling limit as singular point in the distribution of removal rates. We show that a mean field type approximation leads to a model studied by Zhang et al. (J. Stat. Phys. 58 (1990) 849). Finally, we verify the claim of Wallinga that family extinction in a marginally surviving population is governed by DP scaling laws, and speculate on applications to human mitochondrial DNA.

  3. Lie algebra method for solving biological population model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Yilun

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, the Lie algebraic method is applied to solve biological population models described by time-inhomogeneous birth-death processes. Notwithstanding no obvious symmetry, the solution is expressed by matrix exponentials through suitably generated low-dimensional Lie algebras. This methodology may offer useful insights for other biological and ecological applications.

  4. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new mod...

  5. Predicting population dynamics with analytical, simulation and supercomputer models

    SciTech Connect

    Onstad, D.W.

    1987-07-01

    A set of epizootiological models describing the influence of a microsporidian disease on the population dynamics of an herbivorous insect demonstrate the similarities and differences between the three major approaches now available for ecological modeling. Simulation modeling allows the incorporation of randomness or the timing of discrete events in the temporal dynamics. More complex models incorporating both temporal and spatial dynamics in variable and heterogeneous environments require the use of supercomputers. Under a number of realistic circumstances, the qualitative predictions of the approaches may differ.

  6. HOW DO MICROBIAL POPULATIONS AND COMMUNITIES FUNCTION AS MODEL SYSTEMS?

    PubMed

    O'Malley, Maureen A; Travisano, Michael; Velicer, Gregory J; Bolker, Jessica A

    2015-09-01

    Microbial model systems have made major contributions across the life sciences. Their influence extends beyond strictly microbiological research to inform and enhance general biological understanding. To cast light on how microbial populations and communities function as model systems, we examine their use in historical and contemporary research on evolutionary and ecological dynamics. We assess the pros and cons of microbial model systems, and identify specific ways in which they benefit research. Analyzing microbial model systems is of particular value as biologists become increasingly aware of the microbial world and its interactions with the rest of life. PMID:26591851

  7. A stochastic modeling of early HIV-1 population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Kamina, A; Makuch, R W; Zhao, H

    2001-04-01

    In a recent paper, Tuckwell and Le Corfec [J. Theor. Biol. 195 (1998) 450-463] applied the multi-dimensional diffusion process to model early human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) population dynamics. The purpose of this paper is to assess certain features and consequences of their model in the context of Tan and Wu's stochastic approach [Math. Biosci. 147 (1998) 173-205]. PMID:11292498

  8. Parsimonious snow model explains reindeer population dynamics and ranging behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohler, J.; Aanes, R.; Hansen, B. B.; Loe, L.; Severinsen, T.; Stien, A.

    2008-12-01

    Winter snow is a key factor affecting polar ecosystems. One example is the strong negative correlation of winter precipitation with fluctuations in population in some high-arctic animal populations. Ice layers within and at the base of the snowpack have particularly deleterious effects on such populations. Svalbard reindeer have small home ranges and are vulnerable to local "locked pasture" events due to ground-ice formation. When pastures are locked, reindeer are faced with the decision of staying, living off a diminishing fat store, or trying to escape beyond the unknown spatial borders of the ice. Both strategies may inhibit reproduction and increase mortality, leading to population declines. Here we assess the impact of winter snow and ice on the population dynamics of an isolated herd of Svalbard reindeer near Ny-lesund, monitored annually since 1978, with a retrospective analysis of the winter snowpack. Because there are no long-term observational records of snow or snow properties, such as ice layers, we must recourse to snowpack modeling. A parsimonious model of snow and ground-ice thickness is driven with daily temperature and precipitation data collected at a nearby weather station. The model uses the degree-day concept and has three adjustable parameters which are tuned to correlate model snow and ground-ice thicknesses to the limited observations available: April snow accumulation measurements on two local glaciers, and a limited number of ground-ice observations made in recent years. Parameter values used are comparable to those reported elsewhere. We find that modeled mean winter ground-ice thickness explains a significant percentage of the observed variance in reindeer population growth rate. Adding other explanatory parameters, such as modeled mean winter snowpack thickness or previous years' population size does not significanly improve the relation. Furthermore, positioning data from a small subset of reindeer show that model icing events are highly correlated to an immediate increase in range displacement between 5-day observations, suggesting that Svalbard reindeer use space opportunistically in winter, a behavioral trait that may buffer some of the negative effects of the expected climate change in the Arctic.

  9. Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

    PubMed

    Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei M?ce?, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. PMID:26150119

  10. Modelling Spread of Oncolytic Viruses in Heterogeneous Cell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, Michael; Dobrovolny, Hana

    2014-03-01

    One of the most promising areas in current cancer research and treatment is the use of viruses to attack cancer cells. A number of oncolytic viruses have been identified to date that possess the ability to destroy or neutralize cancer cells while inflicting minimal damage upon healthy cells. Formulation of predictive models that correctly describe the evolution of infected tumor systems is critical to the successful application of oncolytic virus therapy. A number of different models have been proposed for analysis of the oncolytic virus-infected tumor system, with approaches ranging from traditional coupled differential equations such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey models, to contemporary modeling frameworks based on neural networks and cellular automata. Existing models are focused on tumor cells and the effects of virus infection, and offer the potential for improvement by including effects upon normal cells. We have recently extended the traditional framework to a 2-cell model addressing the full cellular system including tumor cells, normal cells, and the impacts of viral infection upon both populations. Analysis of the new framework reveals complex interaction between the populations and potential inability to simultaneously eliminate the virus and tumor populations.

  11. A model agreement for genetic research in socially identifiable populations.

    PubMed

    Foster, M W; Bernsten, D; Carter, T H

    1998-09-01

    Genetic research increasingly focuses on population-specific human genetic diversity. However, the naming of a human population in public databases and scientific publications entails collective risks for its members. Those collective risks can be evaluated and protections can be put in place by the establishment of a dialogue with the subject population, before a research study is initiated. Here we describe an agreement to undertake genetic research with a Native American tribe. We identified the culturally appropriate public and private social units within which community members are accustomed to make decisions about health. We then engaged those units in a process of communal discourse. In their discourses about our proposed study, community members expressed most concern about culturally specific implications. We also found that, in this population, private social units were more influential in communal decision making than were public authorities. An agreement was reached that defined the scope of research, provided options for naming the population in publications (including anonymity), and addressed the distribution of royalties from intellectual property, the future use of archival samples, and specific cultural concerns. We found that informed consent by individuals could not fully address these collective issues. This approach may serve as a general model for the undertaking of population-specific genetic studies. PMID:9718343

  12. Can modeling improve estimation of desert tortoise population densities?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nussear, K.E.; Tracy, C.R.

    2007-01-01

    The federally listed desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is currently monitored using distance sampling to estimate population densities. Distance sampling, as with many other techniques for estimating population density, assumes that it is possible to quantify the proportion of animals available to be counted in any census. Because desert tortoises spend much of their life in burrows, and the proportion of tortoises in burrows at any time can be extremely variable, this assumption is difficult to meet. This proportion of animals available to be counted is used as a correction factor (g0) in distance sampling and has been estimated from daily censuses of small populations of tortoises (6-12 individuals). These censuses are costly and produce imprecise estimates of g0 due to small sample sizes. We used data on tortoise activity from a large (N = 150) experimental population to model activity as a function of the biophysical attributes of the environment, but these models did not improve the precision of estimates from the focal populations. Thus, to evaluate how much of the variance in tortoise activity is apparently not predictable, we assessed whether activity on any particular day can predict activity on subsequent days with essentially identical environmental conditions. Tortoise activity was only weakly correlated on consecutive days, indicating that behavior was not repeatable or consistent among days with similar physical environments. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. Influence of a multiyear event of low salinity on the zooplankton from Mexican eco-regions of the California Current

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavaniegos, Bertha E.

    2009-12-01

    Data are presented from the southern part of the California Current System (CCS) for the period 1997-2007, derived from the IMECOCAL monitoring program. Apart from El Niño 1997 to 1998, and La Niña 1998-1999 the strongest perturbation occurred in 2002 due to an intrusion of subarctic water affecting all the CCS. The response of zooplankton biomass to the strong cooling and freshening of the upper layer was an immediate drop followed by a progressive recovery between 2003 and 2007. Though the low salinity influence ended in 2006, the increased zooplankton trend continued, reinforced by increased upwelling activity beginning 2005 off north Baja California region (30-32°N) and beginning 2006 off central Baja California (24-30°N). Multiple regression analysis was done between regional variables and Upwelling Index (UI) and two basin-scale proxies: the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The significant influence of the NPGO on surface salinity, salinity stratification, zooplankton volume and secondary consumers (zooplankton carnivores) suggests a basin scale control on these variables more than local mechanisms. The signature of the NPGO was also evident in the base of the trophic web, but more related to the group of crustacean herbivores in the north eco-region, and the tunicates in central Baja California. In this last region, the effect from NPGO on the zooplankton volume and tunicates was antagonist with UI indicative of similar importance of basin and local processes. However, when the time interval is limited to the post-subarctic intrusion (2003-2007) the significance of multiple regression models and physical variables was lost. Therefore, though data and bio-physical coupling analysis off Baja California suggest a better relation with NPGO compared to PDO, it is still not sufficient to explain the magnitude of the perturbation observed in 2002.

  14. Recovery after local extinction: factors affecting re-establishment of alpine lake zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Roland A; Sarnelle, Orlando

    2008-12-01

    The introduction of fishes into naturally fishless mountain lakes often results in the extirpation of large-bodied zooplankton species. The ability to predict whether or not particular species will recover following fish removal is critically important for the design and implementation of lake restoration efforts but is currently not possible because of a lack of information on what factors affect recovery. The objective of this study was to identify the factors influencing recovery probability in two large-bodied zooplankton species following fish removal. We predicted that (1) Daphnia melanica would have a higher probability of recovery than Hesperodiaptomus shoshone due to differences in reproductive mode (D. melanica is parthenogenetic, H. shoshone is obligately sexual), (2) recovery probability would be a decreasing function of fish residence time due to the negative relationship between fish residence time and size of the egg bank, and (3) recovery probability would be an increasing function of lake depth as a consequence of a positive relationship between lake depth and egg bank size. To test these predictions, we sampled contemporary zooplankton populations and collected paleolimnological data from 44 naturally fishless lakes that were stocked with trout for varying lengths of time before reverting to a fishless condition. D. melanica had a significantly higher probability of recovery than did H. shoshone (0.82 vs. 0.54, respectively). The probability of recovery for H. shoshone was also significantly influenced by lake depth, fish residence time, and elevation, but only elevation influenced the probability of recovery in D. melanica. These results are consistent with between-species differences in reproductive mode combined with the much greater longevity of diapausing eggs in D. melanica than in H. shoshone. Our data also suggest that H. shoshone will often fail to recover in lakes with fish residence times exceeding 50 years. PMID:19263883

  15. Tidally oriented vertical migration and position maintenance of zooplankton in a temperate estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kimmerer, W.J.; Burau, J.R.; Bennett, W.A.

    1998-01-01

    In many estuaries, maxima in turbidity and abundance of several common species of zooplankton occur in the low salinity zone (LSZ) in the range of 0.5-6 practical salinity units (psu). Analysis of zooplankton abundance from monitoring in 1972-1987 revealed that historical maxima in abundance of the copepod Eurytemora affinis and the mysid Neomysis mercedis, and in turbidity as determined from Secchi disk data, were close to the estimated position of 2 psu bottom salinity. The copepod Sinocalanus doerrii had a maximum slightly landward of that of E. affinis. After 1987 these maxima decreased and shifted to a lower salinity, presumably because of the effects of grazing by the introduced clam Potamocorbula amurensis. At the same time, the copepod Pseudodiaptomus forbesi, the mysid Acanthomysis sp., and amphipods became abundant with peaks at salinity around 0.2-0.5 psu. Plausible mechanisms for maintenance of these persistent abundance peaks include interactions between variation in flow and abundance, either in the vertical or horizontal plane, or higher net population growth rate in the peaks than seaward of the peaks. In spring of 1994, a dry year, we sampled in and near the LSZ using a Lagrangian sampling scheme to follow selected isohalines while sampling over several complete tidal cycles. Acoustic Doppler current profilers were used to provide detailed velocity distributions to enable us to estimate longitudinal fluxes of organisms. Stratification was weak and gravitational circulation nearly absent in the LSZ. All of the common species of zooplankton migrated vertically in response to the tides, with abundance higher in the water column on the flood than on the ebb. Migration of mysids and amphipods was sufficient to override net seaward flow to produce a net landward flux of organisms. Migration of copepods, however, was insufficient to reverse or even greatly diminish the net seaward flux of organisms, implying alternative mechanisms of position maintenance.

  16. A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. Inbreeding Estimation from Population Data: Models, Procedures and Implications

    PubMed Central

    Spielman, Richard S.; Neel, James V.; Li, Francis H. F.

    1977-01-01

    Four different estimation procedures for models of population structure are compared. The parameters of the models are shown to be equivalent and, in most cases, easily expressed in terms of the parameters Wright calls "F-statistics." We have estimated the parameters of each of these models with data on nine codominant allele pairs in 47 Yanomama villages, and we find that the different estimators for a given parameter all yield more or less equivalent results. F-statistics are often equated to inbreeding coefficients that are defined as the probability of identity by descent from alleles taken to be unique in some founding population. However, we are led to infer from computer simulation and general historical considerations that all estimates from genotype frequencies greatly underestimate the inbreeding coefficient for alleles in the founding population of American Indians in the western hemisphere. We surmise that in the highly subdivided tribal populations which prevailed until the recent advent of civilization, the probability of identity by descent for homologous alleles was roughly 0.5. We consider some consequences of working with the customary, much lower, estimates0.005 to 0.01if, on the time scale of human evolution, these represent only a very recent departure from the inbreeding intensity that prevailed before civilization. PMID:863234

  18. Negative binomial models for abundance estimation of multiple closed populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boyce, Mark S.; MacKenzie, Darry I.; Manly, Bryan F.J.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Moody, David W.

    2001-01-01

    Counts of uniquely identified individuals in a population offer opportunities to estimate abundance. However, for various reasons such counts may be burdened by heterogeneity in the probability of being detected. Theoretical arguments and empirical evidence demonstrate that the negative binomial distribution (NBD) is a useful characterization for counts from biological populations with heterogeneity. We propose a method that focuses on estimating multiple populations by simultaneously using a suite of models derived from the NBD. We used this approach to estimate the number of female grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone ecosystem, for each year, 1986-1998. Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) indicated that a negative binomial model with a constant level of heterogeneity across all years was best for characterizing the sighting frequencies of female grizzly bears. A lack-of-fit test indicated the model adequately described the collected data. Bootstrap techniques were used to estimate standard errors and 95% confidence intervals. We provide a Monte Carlo technique, which confirms that the Yellowstone ecosystem grizzly bear population increased during the period 1986-1998.

  19. Two-population dynamics in a growing network model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanova, Kristinka; Iordanov, Ivan

    2012-02-01

    We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.

  20. A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koford, Rolf R.; Sauer, J.R.; Johnson, D.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Samuel, M.D.

    1992-01-01

    We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.

  1. A Bibliometric Analysis on Cancer Population Science with Topic Modeling.

    PubMed

    Li, Ding-Cheng; Rastegar-Mojarad, Majid; Okamoto, Janet; Liu, Hongfang; Leichow, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Bibliometric analysis is a research method used in library and information science to evaluate research performance. It applies quantitative and statistical analyses to describe patterns observed in a set of publications and can help identify previous, current, and future research trends or focus. To better guide our institutional strategic plan in cancer population science, we conducted bibliometric analysis on publications of investigators currently funded by either Division of Cancer Preventions (DCP) or Division of Cancer Control and Population Science (DCCPS) at National Cancer Institute. We applied two topic modeling techniques: author topic modeling (AT) and dynamic topic modeling (DTM). Our initial results show that AT can address reasonably the issues related to investigators' research interests, research topic distributions and popularities. In compensation, DTM can address the evolving trend of each topic by displaying the proportion changes of key words, which is consistent with the changes of MeSH headings. PMID:26306249

  2. A Bibliometric Analysis on Cancer Population Science with Topic Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Li, Ding-Cheng; Rastegar-Mojarad, Majid; Okamoto, Janet; Liu, Hongfang; Leichow, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Bibliometric analysis is a research method used in library and information science to evaluate research performance. It applies quantitative and statistical analyses to describe patterns observed in a set of publications and can help identify previous, current, and future research trends or focus. To better guide our institutional strategic plan in cancer population science, we conducted bibliometric analysis on publications of investigators currently funded by either Division of Cancer Preventions (DCP) or Division of Cancer Control and Population Science (DCCPS) at National Cancer Institute. We applied two topic modeling techniques: author topic modeling (AT) and dynamic topic modeling (DTM). Our initial results show that AT can address reasonably the issues related to investigators research interests, research topic distributions and popularities. In compensation, DTM can address the evolving trend of each topic by displaying the proportion changes of key words, which is consistent with the changes of MeSH headings. PMID:26306249

  3. ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

    2010-01-01

    The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

  4. A model study with light-dependent mortality rates of copepod stages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, Thomas; Kremp, Christine

    2005-06-01

    This paper is based on an advanced ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea (ERGOM [ J. Mar. Sys. 25 (3-4) (2005) 405]), but with an increased resolution of the zooplankton stage variable [ J. Plankton Res. 23 (2001) 1217; ICES Marine Science 219 (2003) 208]. The model copepods are represented by five stages: eggs, an aggregated variable of nauplii, two aggregated groups of copepodites and adults. The transfer among the stages, i.e., hatching, molting and reproduction, is controlled by food availability and temperature. As usual, the model food web is truncated at the level of zooplankton. The study explores the effects of different parametrization of zooplankton mortality and looks in particular on light-dependent rates. The light climate may serve a proxy for the effects of visual feeding of fish larvae and fish. Different choices of the mortality parameters can result in remarkable differences in abundances and biomass of the model zooplankton and in the timing of its development. It is found that the different choices of mortality affect the development of populations in several ways: Relative small initial differences of abundances at the beginning of the spring bloom are important for the development of the model populations. Higher mortality rates are less important at food rich conditions than at scarce resources. At low phytoplankton levels, the individual development of the copepods through the stages can be faster for elevated mortality rates because then less animals have to share the available food.

  5. Zooplankton species composition, abundance and biomass on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: The potential role of water-column stability and nutrients in structuring the zooplankton community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coyle, Kenneth O.; Pinchuk, Alexei I.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Napp, Jeffrey M.

    2008-08-01

    The southeastern Bering Sea sustains one of the largest fisheries in the United States, as well as wildlife resources that support valuable tourist and subsistence economies. The fish and wildlife populations in turn are sustained by a food web linking primary producers to apex predators through the zooplankton community. Recent shifts in climate toward warmer conditions may threaten these resources by altering productivity and trophic relationships in the ecosystem on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf. We examined the zooplankton community near the Pribilof Islands and on the middle shelf of the southeastern Bering Sea in summer of 1999 and 2004 to document differences and similarities in species composition, abundance and biomass by region and year. Between August 1999 and August 2004, the summer zooplankton community of the middle shelf shifted from large to small species. Significant declines were observed in the biomass of large scyphozoans ( Chrysaora melanaster), large copepods ( Calanus marshallae), arrow worms ( Sagitta elegans) and euphausiids ( Thysanoessa raschii, T. inermis) between 1999 and 2004. In contrast, significantly higher densities of the small copepods ( Pseudocalanus spp., Oithona similis) and small hydromedusae ( Euphysa flammea) were observed in 2004 relative to 1999. Stomach analyses of young-of-the-year (age 0) pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma) from the middle shelf indicated a dietary shift from large to small copepods in 2004 relative to 1999. The shift in the zooplankton community was accompanied by a 3-fold increase in water-column stability in 2004 relative to 1999, primarily due to warmer water above the thermocline, with a mean temperature of 7.3 °C in 1999 and 12.6 °C in 2004. The elevated water-column stability and warmer conditions may have influenced the zooplankton composition by lowering summer primary production and selecting for species more tolerant of a warm, oligotrophic environment. A time series of temperature from the middle shelf indicates that the warmer conditions in 2004 are part of a trend rather than an expression of interannual variability. These results suggest that if climate on the Bering Sea shelf continues to warm, the zooplankton community may shift from large to small taxa which could strongly impact apex predators and the economies they support.

  6. Searching for an Integrated Watershed Salmonid Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligon, F. K.; Dietrich, W. E.

    2005-05-01

    In proposing to restore a stream or watershed, we imply that we know what we are restoring and why. However, in many cases, restoration proceeds without having the tools to adequately assess the efficacy of a project-both in terms of its likely local success and what effects it may have at a larger watershed or regional scale. In salmonid ecology and restoration, our approach has been to "step back" and investigate the degree to which geology, tectonics, and climate determine the relative abundance and temporal variability of the species present in a watershed or reach. In other words, does the habitat provided by a landscape prior to European disturbance (the so-called historical reference condition) allow us to predict, using salmon life history theory, the historical population dynamics of all salmonid species for a watershed or region? Likewise, as changes in physical processes have occurred due to human disturbance, can we predict the differential effects on the abundance of different salmonid species historically present in the watershed? To explore these questions, we have developed the "reference model". The reference model is based on a set of desktop watershed analyses tools that estimate a number of landscape attributes including channel slope, drainage area, stream temperature, and shallow landslide sensitivity. The model uses these tools to predict the spatial distribution of habitat and its quality and quantity. Then, by relating the habitat to life stage specific survival, the model predicts population dynamics under reference and current conditions, and under proposed restoration scenarios. In applying the reference model, we explicitly link salmon restoration targets and plans to an understanding of the role of physical processes on the historical and current population dynamics. As is true with most models, the reference model's predictions have the greatest value when they can be treated as testable hypotheses. Ongoing restoration projects that demonstrate the model and explicitly test model predictions will be presented.

  7. Modeling the Effects of Mortality on Sea Otter Populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.

    2010-01-01

    Conservation and management of sea otters can benefit from managing the magnitude and sex composition of human related mortality, including harvesting within sustainable levels. Using age and sex-specific reproduction and survival rates from field studies, we created matrix population models representing sea otter populations with growth rates of 1.005, 1.072, and 1.145, corresponding to stable, moderate, and rapid rates of change. In each modeled population, we incrementally imposed additional annual mortality over a 20-year period and calculated average annual rates of change (lambda). Additional mortality was applied to (1) males only, (2) at a 1:1 ratio of male to female, and (3) at a 3:1 ratio of male to female. Dependent pups (age 0-0.5) were excluded from the mortality. Maintaining a stable or slightly increasing population was largely dependent on (1) the magnitude of additional mortality, (2) the underlying rate of change in the population during the period of additional mortality, and (3) the extent that females were included in the additional mortality (due to a polygnous reproductive system where one male may breed with more than one female). In stable populations, additional mortality as high as 2.4 percent was sustainable if limited to males only, but was reduced to 1.2 percent when males and females were removed at ratios of 3:1 or 0.5 percent at ratios of 1:1. In moderate growth populations, additional mortality of 9.8 percent (male-only) and 15.0 percent (3:1 male to female) maximized the sustainable mortality about 3-10 ten-fold over the stable population levels. However, if additional mortality consists of males and females at equal proportions, the sustainable rate is 7.7 percent. In rapid growth populations, maximum sustainable levels of mortality as high as 27.3 percent were achieved when the ratio of additional mortality was 3:1 male to female. Although male-only mortality maximized annual harvest in stable populations, high male biased mortality in all simulations eventually led to low proportions of males, leading to instability in projected populations over time. Our findings identify the critical need to understand underlying rates of change that can be acquired only through frequent monitoring of managed populations. Models could be improved through better understanding of the effects of density and demographic and environmental stochasticity on sea otter vital rates. Although our primary objective was to provide information useful in managing harvests of sea otters, our findings have implications for the conservation and management of sea otter populations subjected to other sources of mortality that can be quantified, such as incidental, accidental, or illegal.

  8. Encounters of spherical galaxies. I - Galaxy models with one stellar population. II - Galaxy models with two stellar populations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biermann, P.; Silk, J.

    1976-01-01

    Close encounters between two spherical galaxies of equal size and consisting of only one stellar population are calculated using models of elliptical galaxies constructed according to King's (1966) method. The mass loss and the change in internal energy are computed under the assumption that the stars do not change their velocity or density distributions during the encounters. The results for a specific case are compared with the calculations of Gallagher and Ostriker (1972), who employed the observed brightness distribution and the derived density distribution of the E1 galaxy NGC 3379. For models with one stellar population, the results suggest that the radius of a galactic halo would have to be at least 200 kpc for appreciable mass loss to occur over the history of a galaxy in a rich cluster. The calculations are then extended to include a halo population characterized by a high central velocity dispersion. In this case, it is found that the halo population of sufficiently large galaxies can be dispersed without appreciably affecting the main population. It is suggested that the missing mass of many clusters of galaxies may be located in an intergalactic sea of faint stars making up an envelope for the centrally located gE galaxies.

  9. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Pat; Landahl, John

    This pamphlet has been prepared in response to a new problem, a rapidly increasing population, and a new need, population education. It is designed to help teachers provide their students with some basic population concepts with stress placed on the elements of decision making. In the first section of the pamphlet, some of the basic concepts of…

  10. Acoustic backscatter measurements with a 153 kHz ADCP in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico: determination of dominant zooplankton and micronekton scatterers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ressler, Patrick H.

    2002-11-01

    A 153 kHz narrowband acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) was used to measure volume backscattering strength ( Sv) during a deepwater oceanographic survey of cetacean and seabird habitat in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Sv was positively related to zooplankton and micronekton biomass (wet displacement volume) in 'sea-truth' net hauls made with a 1 m 2 Multiple Opening-Closing Net Environmental Sensing System (MOCNESS). A subset of these MOCNESS tows was used to explore the relationship between the numerical densities of various taxonomic categories of zooplankton and the ADCP backscatter signal. Crustaceans, small fish, and fragments of non-gas-bearing siphonophores in the net samples all showed significant, positive correlations with the acoustic signal, while other types of gelatinous zooplankton, pteropod and atlantid molluscs, and gas-filled siphonophore floats showed no significant correlation with Sv. Previously published acoustic scattering models for zooplankton were used to calculate expected scattering for several general zooplankton types and sizes for comparison with the field data. Even though gelatinous material often made up a large fraction of the total biomass, crustaceans, small fish, and pteropods were most likely the important scatterers. Since only crustacean and small fish densities were significantly correlated with Sv, it is suggested that Sv at 153 kHz can be used as a relative proxy for the abundance of these organisms in the Gulf of Mexico.

  11. Intraspecific Autochthonous and Allochthonous Resource Use by Zooplankton in a Humic Lake during the Transitions between Winter, Summer and Fall

    PubMed Central

    Berggren, Martin; Bergström, Ann-Kristin; Karlsson, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal patterns in assimilation of externally produced, allochthonous, organic matter into aquatic food webs are poorly understood, especially in brown-water lakes. We studied the allochthony (share biomass of terrestrial origin) in cladoceran, calanoid and cyclopoid micro-crustacean zooplankton from late winter to fall during two years in a small humic lake (Sweden). The use of allochthonous resources was important for sustaining a small population of calanoids in the water column during late winter. However, in summer the calanoids shifted to 100% herbivory, increasing their biomass several-fold by making efficient use of the pelagic primary production. In contrast, the cyclopoids and cladocerans remained at high levels of allochthony throughout the seasons, both groups showing the mean allochthony of 0.56 (range in mean 0.17-0.79 and 0.34-0.75, for the respective group, depending on model parameters). Our study shows that terrestrial organic matter can be an important resource for cyclopoids and cladocerans on an annual basis, forming a significant link between terrestrial organic matter and the higher trophic levels of the food web, but it can also be important for sustaining otherwise herbivorous calanoids during periods of low primary production in late winter. PMID:25764501

  12. A test for deviation from island-model population structure.

    PubMed

    Porter, Adam H

    2003-04-01

    The neutral island model forms the basis for several estimation models that relate patterns of genetic structure to microevolutionary processes. Estimates of gene flow are often based on this model and may be biased when the model's assumptions are violated. An appropriate test for violations is to compare FST scores for individual loci to a null distribution based on the average FST taken over multiple loci. A parametric bootstrap method is described here based on Wright's beta-distribution to generate null distributions of FST for each locus. These null distributions account for error introduced by sampling populations, individuals and loci, and also biological sources of error, including variable alleles/locus and inbreeding. Confidence limits can be obtained directly from these distributions. Significant deviations from the island model may be the result of selection, deviations from the island model's migration pattern, nonequilibrium conditions, or other deviations from island-model assumptions. Only strong biases are likely to be detected because of the inherently large sampling variation of FST. Nevertheless, a coefficient, Nb, describing bias in the spread of the beta-distribution in units comparable to the gene flow parameter, Nm, can be obtained for each locus. In samples from populations of the butterfly Coenonympha tullia, the loci Idh-1, Mdh-1, Pgi and Pgm showed significantly lower FST than expected. PMID:12753211

  13. Moving across the border: modeling migratory bat populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruscena, Wiederholt; Lpez-Hoffman, Laura; Cline, Jon; Medellin, Rodrigo; Cryan, Paul M.; Russell, Amy; McCracken, Gary; Diffendorfer, Jay; Semmens, Darius J.

    2013-01-01

    The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routesthose with the greatest number of migrantswere between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

  14. Modelling Food and Population Dynamics in Honey Bee Colonies

    PubMed Central

    Khoury, David S.; Barron, Andrew B.; Myerscough, Mary R.

    2013-01-01

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. PMID:23667418

  15. Does salinity change determine zooplankton variability in the saline Qarun Lake (Egypt)?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Shabrawy, Gamal M.; Anufriieva, Elena V.; Germoush, Mousa O.; Goher, Mohamed E.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

    2015-11-01

    Zooplankton and 14 abiotic variables were studied during August 2011 at 10 stations in Lake Qarun, Egypt. Stations with the lowest salinity and highest nutrient concentrations and turbidity were close to the discharge of waters from the El-Bats and El-Wadi drainage systems. A total of 15 holozooplankton species were identified. The salinity in Lake Qarun increased and fluctuated since 1901: 12 g/L in 1901; 8.5 g/L in 1905; 12.0 g/L in 1922; 30.0 g/L in 1985; 38.7 g/L in 1994; 35.3 g/L in 2006, and 33.4 g/L in 2011. The mean concentration of nutrients (nitrate, nitrite and orthophosphate) gradually increased from 35, 0.16 and 0.38 µg/L, respectively, in 1953-1955 to 113, 16.4, and 30.26 µg/L in 2011. From 1999-2003 some decrease of species diversity occurred. Average total zooplankton density was 30 000 ind./m3 in 1974-1977; 356 125 ind./m3 in 1989; 534 000 ind./m3 in 1994-1995; from 965 000 to 1 452 000 ind./m3 in 2006, and 595 000 ind./m3 in 2011. A range of long-term summer salinity variability during the last decades was very similar to a range of salinity spatial variability in summer 2011. There is no significant correlation between zooplankton abundance and salinity in spatial and long-term changes. We conclude that salinity fluctuations since at least 1955 did not directly drive the changes of composition and abundance of zooplankton in the lake. A marine community had formed in the lake, and it continues to change. One of the main drivers of this change is a regular introduction and a pressure of alien species on the existent community. Eutrophication also plays an important role. The introduction of Mnemiopsis leidyi, first reported in 2014, may lead to a start of a new stage of the biotic changes in Lake Qarun, when eutrophication and the population dynamics of this ctenophore will be main drivers of the ecosystem change.

  16. Influence of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies on zooplankton distribution south of the western Aleutian Islands during summer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, R.; Yamaguchi, A.; Yasuda, I.; Ueno, H.; Ishiyama, H.; Imai, I.

    2013-12-01

    Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies have been observed south of the Aleutian Islands located between the Bering Sea and the subarctic Pacific. Eddies farther east, in the Gulf of Alaska, are known to transport coastal water and coastal zooplankton to offshore open ocean. The impacts of mesoscale anticyclonic eddies formed south of the western Aleutian Islands (Aleutian eddies) on the zooplankton community are not fully understood. In the present study, we describe zooplankton population structures within an Aleutian eddy and outside the eddy during July 2010. Our field study was conducted at seven stations along 5115?N from 17121?E to 17438?E (western line) and at four stations along 5040?N from 17624?E to 17844?E (eastern line) on 7-8 July 2010. At each station, environmental data (temperature, salinity and fluorescence were measured by CTD/XCTD. Zooplankton samples were collected by vertical tow of 150 m depth to the surface using 100 ?m mesh size plankton net. Based on the sea level anomaly (SLA), the western line crossed an anticyclonic eddy but the eastern line did not cross the eddy (Fig. 1). This Aleutian eddy was formed south of Attu Island (5254?N, 17254?E) in mid-February 2010, and it moved southeastward in the next five months. The SLA near the eddy center, representing the strength of the eddy, continuously increased, and the area oscillated at one to two month periods overlain on a general increase from ~7,000 to ~18,000 km2. Large oceanic copepods, Neocalanus cristatus, Eucalanus bungii and Metridia pacifica were more abundant inside the eddy than the outside. Inside the eddy, the life stage distribution of N. cristatus was advanced than that outside, and Neocalanus spp. had accumulated more lipids. These conditions probably reflect the greater primary production in the eddy, production enhanced by nutrients advected into the eddy. Since the Aleutian eddy was formed in offshore waters and/or eddy-eddy interaction occurred after its formation, it contained mostly oceanic copepods. The sufficient food condition in the eddy presumably induced higher growth and survival rates of these oceanic copepods, resulting in the greater abundance, advanced development stages and greater lipid accumulation. Fig. 1. Sea level anomaly along the sampling lines on 7 July 2010 south of the western Aleutian Islands.

  17. Bayesian modeling of haplotype effects in multiparent populations.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhaojun; Wang, Wei; Valdar, William

    2014-09-01

    A general Bayesian model, Diploffect, is described for estimating the effects of founder haplotypes at quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected in multiparental genetic populations; such populations include the Collaborative Cross (CC), Heterogeneous Socks (HS), and many others for which local genetic variation is well described by an underlying, usually probabilistically inferred, haplotype mosaic. Our aim is to provide a framework for coherent estimation of haplotype and diplotype (haplotype pair) effects that takes into account the following: uncertainty in haplotype composition for each individual; uncertainty arising from small sample sizes and infrequently observed haplotype combinations; possible effects of dominance (for noninbred subjects); genetic background; and that provides a means to incorporate data that may be incomplete or has a hierarchical structure. Using the results of a probabilistic haplotype reconstruction as prior information, we obtain posterior distributions at the QTL for both haplotype effects and haplotype composition. Two alternative computational approaches are supplied: a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler and a procedure based on importance sampling of integrated nested Laplace approximations. Using simulations of QTL in the incipient CC (pre-CC) and Northport HS populations, we compare the accuracy of Diploffect, approximations to it, and more commonly used approaches based on Haley-Knott regression, describing trade-offs between these methods. We also estimate effects for three QTL previously identified in those populations, obtaining posterior intervals that describe how the phenotype might be affected by diplotype substitutions at the modeled locus. PMID:25236455

  18. A stage-based model of manatee population dynamics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, M.C.; Langtimm, C.A.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    A stage-structured population model for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) was developed that explicitly incorporates uncertainty in parameter estimates. The growth rates calculated with this model reflect the status of the regional populations over the most recent 10-yr period. The Northwest and Upper St. Johns River regions have growth rates (8) of 1.037 (95% interval, 1.016?1.056) and 1.062 (1.037?1.081), respectively. The Southwest region has a growth rate of 0.989 (0.946?1.024), suggesting this population has been declining at about 1.1% per year. The estimated growth rate in the Atlantic region is 1.010 (0.988?1.029), but there is some uncertainty about whether adult survival rates have been constant over the last 10 yr; using the mean survival rates from the most recent 5-yr period, the estimated growth rate in this region is 0.970 (0.938?0.998). Elasticity analysis indicates that the most effective management actions should seek to increase adult survival rates. Decomposition of the uncertainty in the growth rates indicates that uncertainty about population status can best be reduced through increased monitoring of adult survival rate.

  19. Late-summer zooplankton community structure, abundance, and distribution in the Hudson Bay system (Canada) and their relationships with environmental conditions, 2003-2006

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Rafael; Harvey, Michel; Gosselin, Michel; Starr, Michel; Galbraith, Peter S.; Straneo, Fiammetta

    2012-08-01

    Zooplankton communities were examined for the first time in three different hydrographic regions of the Hudson Bay system (HBS) in early August to early September from 2003 to 2006. Sampling was conducted at 50 stations distributed along different transects located in Hudson Bay (HB), Hudson Strait (HS), and Foxe Basin (FB). Variations in zooplankton biomass, abundance, taxonomic composition, and diversity in relation to environmental variables were studied using multivariate techniques. During all sampling years, the total zooplankton biomass was on average four times lower in HB than in HS and FB. Clustering samples by their relative species compositions revealed no interannual variation in zooplankton community but showed a marked interregional variability between the three regions. Water column stratification explained the greatest proportion (25%) of this spatial variability. According to redundancy analysis (RDA), the zooplankton taxa that contribute most to the separation of the three regions are Microcalanus spp., Oithona similis, Oncaea borealis, Aeginopsis laurentii, Sagitta elegans, Fritillaria sp., and larvae of cnidaria, chaetognatha, and pteropoda in HB; hyperiid amphipods in FB; and Pseudocalanus spp. CI-CV, Calanus glacialis CI-CVI, Calanus finmarchicus CI-CVI, Calanus hyperboreus CV-CVI, Acartia longiremis CI-CV, Metridia longa N3-N6 CI-CIII CVIf, Eukrohnia hamata, larvae of echinodermata, mollusca, cirripedia, appendicularia, and polychaeta in the northwestern and southeastern HS transects. For the HB transect, the RDA analyzed allowed us to distinguish three regions (HB west, central, and east) with different environmental gradients and zooplankton assemblages, in particular higher concentration of Pseudocalanus spp. nauplii and CI-CVI, as well as benthic macrozooplankton and meroplankton larvae in western HB. In HS, Calanoid species (mainly C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis) were mostly observed at the north shore stations associated with the weakly stratified Arctic-North Atlantic waters coming from southwestern Davis Strait (inflow). In general, the RDA models tested among the HBS regions were very consistent with its general surface circulation pattern for summer conditions in terms of environmental variables and distinct zooplankton assemblages. Overall, zooplankton biomass and diversity indices (H‧, J‧, and S) were lower in the most stratified environment (i.e., HB) than in the deeper (FB) and more dynamic (HS) regions. The results of this work clearly show that the spatial differentiation and structure of the zooplankton communities are strongly influenced by the hydrodynamic conditions in the HBS that, trough their actions on temperature, salinity, stratification, mixing conditions and depth strata, lead to the spatial differentiation of these communities.

  20. Resource Requirements of the Pacific Leatherback Turtle Population

    PubMed Central

    Jones, T. Todd; Bostrom, Brian L.; Hastings, Mervin D.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Pauly, Daniel; Jones, David R.

    2012-01-01

    The Pacific population of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) has drastically declined in the last 25 years. This decline has been linked to incidental capture by fisheries, egg and meat harvesting, and recently, to climate variability and resource limitation. Here we couple growth rates with feeding experiments and food intake functions to estimate daily energy requirements of leatherbacks throughout their development. We then estimate mortality rates from available data, enabling us to raise food intake (energy requirements) of the individual to the population level. We place energy requirements in context of available resources (i.e., gelatinous zooplankton abundance). Estimated consumption rates suggest that a single leatherback will eat upward of 1000 metric tonnes (t) of jellyfish in its lifetime (range 9241112) with the Pacific population consuming 2.1106 t of jellyfish annually (range 1.03.7106) equivalent to 4.2108 megajoules (MJ) (range 2.07.4108). Model estimates suggest 27 yr-old juveniles comprise the majority of the Pacific leatherback population biomass and account for most of the jellyfish consumption (1.1106 t of jellyfish or 2.2108 MJ per year). Leatherbacks are large gelatinous zooplanktivores with consumption to biomass ratios of 96 (up to 192 if feeding strictly on low energy density Cnidarians); they, therefore, have a large capacity to impact gelatinous zooplankton landscapes. Understanding the leatherback's needs for gelatinous zooplankton, versus the availability of these resources, can help us better assess population trends and the influence of climate induced resource limitations to reproductive output. PMID:23071518

  1. Correlates of Zooplankton Beta Diversity in Tropical Lake Systems

    PubMed Central

    Lopes, Paloma M.; Bini, Luis M.; Declerck, Steven A. J.; Farjalla, Vinicius F.; Vieira, Ludgero C. G.; Bonecker, Claudia C.; Lansac-Toha, Fabio A.; Esteves, Francisco A.; Bozelli, Reinaldo L.

    2014-01-01

    The changes in species composition between habitat patches (beta diversity) are likely related to a number of factors, including environmental heterogeneity, connectivity, disturbance and productivity. Here, we used data from aquatic environments in five Brazilian regions over two years and two seasons (rainy and dry seasons or high and low water level periods in floodplain lakes) in each year to test hypotheses underlying zooplankton beta diversity variation. The regions present different levels of hydrological connectivity, where three regions present lakes that are permanent and connected with the main river, while the water bodies of the other two regions consist of permanent lakes and temporary ponds, with no hydrological connections between them. We tested for relationships between zooplankton beta diversity and environmental heterogeneity, spatial extent, hydrological connectivity, seasonality, disturbance and productivity. Negative relationships were detected between zooplankton beta diversity and both hydrological connectivity and disturbance (periodic dry-outs). Hydrological connectivity is likely to affect beta diversity by facilitating dispersal between habitats. In addition, the harsh environmental filter imposed by disturbance selected for only a small portion of the species from the regional pool that were able to cope with periodic dry-outs (e.g., those with a high production of resting eggs). In summary, this study suggests that faunal exchange and disturbance play important roles in structuring local zooplankton communities. PMID:25330034

  2. Evolutionary adaptation of marine zooplankton to global change.

    PubMed

    Dam, Hans G

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the response of the biota to global change remains a formidable endeavor. Zooplankton face challenges related to global warming, ocean acidification, the proliferation of toxic algal blooms, and increasing pollution, eutrophication, and hypoxia. They can respond to these changes by phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation. Using the concept of the evolution of reaction norms, I address how adaptive responses can be unequivocally discerned from phenotypic plasticity. To date, relatively few zooplankton studies have been designed for such a purpose. As case studies, I review the evidence for zooplankton adaptation to toxic algal blooms, hypoxia, and climate change. Predicting the response of zooplankton to global change requires new information to determine (a) the trade-offs and costs of adaptation, (b) the rates of evolution versus environmental change, (c) the consequences of adaptation to stochastic or cyclic (toxic algal blooms, coastal hypoxia) versus directional (temperature, acidification, open ocean hypoxia) environmental change, and (d) the interaction of selective pressures, and evolutionary and ecological processes, in promoting or hindering adaptation. PMID:22809192

  3. NUTRIENT REGENERATION BY ZOOPLANKTON IN SOUTHERN LAKE HURON

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rates of nutrient regeneration by zooplankton (micromolecule/mg dry wt/hr) in southern Lake Huron from April to August 1975 ranged from undetectable to 2.6 for total phosphorus (TP), undetected to 0.8 for total soluble phosphorus (TSP), undetectable to 0.12 for soluble reactive p...

  4. Zooplankton and Karenia brevis in the Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lester, Kristen M.; Heil, Cynthia A.; Neely, Merry B.; Spence, Danylle N.; Murasko, Susan; Hopkins, Thomas L.; Sutton, Tracey T.; Burghart, Scott E.; Bohrer, Richard N.; Remsen, Andrew W.; Vargo, Gabriel A.; Walsh, John J.

    2008-01-01

    Blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis are common in the Gulf of Mexico, yet no in situ studies of zooplankton and K. brevis have been conducted there. Zooplankton abundance and taxonomic composition at non-bloom and K. brevis bloom stations within the Ecology of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB) study area were compared. At non-bloom stations, the most abundant species of zooplankton were Parvocalanus crassirostris, Oithona colcarva, and Paracalanus quasimodo at the 5-m isobath and P. quasimodo, O. colcarva, and Oikopleura dioica at the 25-m isobath. There was considerable overlap in dominance of zooplankton species between the 5 and 25-m isobaths, with nine species contributing to 90% of abundance at both isobaths. At stations within K. brevis blooms however, Acartia tonsa, Centropages velificatus, Temora turbinata, Evadne tergestina, O. colcarva, O. dioica, and P. crassirostris were dominant. Variations in abundance between non-bloom and bloom assemblages were evident, including the reduction in abundance of three key species within K. brevis blooms.

  5. Evaluation of Zooplankton in Hatchery Diets for Channel Catfish Fry

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The efficacy of zooplankton as a supplemental hatchery diet for fry of channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus was evaluated. When a commercial diet is used as a reference, fry fed exclusively on zooplankton–either live or dried–performed poorly in their growth rate. However, when live or dried zooplan...

  6. Effect of various intake designs on zooplankton entrainment

    SciTech Connect

    Dycus, D.L.

    1983-03-01

    Field studies were conducted at the intakes of three Tennessee Valley Authority electric power plants to determine whether intake design is a feasible means of mitigating effects on zooplankton by minimizing the quantity entrained. Three intake designs were evaluated: one with a shallow skimmer wall, one with a deep skimmer wall, and one with no skimmer wall. Many sample sets from these studies were highly variable because of inadequate sample replication, thus precluding the use of statistical tests on some of the data. Where possible, an analysis of variance and a Student, Newman, Keuls multiple range test were computed and tested at the 0.05 level. Several studies indicated possible differences between day and night in the quantity of zooplankton entrained. The greater quantities entrained at night were related to a greater abundance in the source water body at night rather than to intake design. These results indicate that time-of-day differences might be used to mitigate effects on zooplankton at some intakes if the intake could be operated to require less cooling water when concentrations were greatest. None of these studies indicated that the intake designs studied minimized the quantity of zooplankton entrained because the quantities in the intake canals were similar to the quantities in the source water body.

  7. Zooplankton fecal pellets link fossil fuel and phosphate deposits

    SciTech Connect

    Porter, K.G.; Robbins, E.I.

    1981-05-22

    Fossil zooplankton fecal pellets found in thinly bedded marine and lacustrine black shales associated with phosphate, oil, and coal deposits, link the deposition of organic matter and biologically associated minerals with planktonic ecosystems. The black shales were probably formed in the anoxic basins of coastal marine waters, inland seas, and rift valley lakes where high productivity was supported by runoff, upwelling, and outwelling.

  8. Lake St. Clair zooplankton: Evidence for post-dreissena changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    David, K.A.; Davis, B.M.; Hunter, R.D.

    2009-01-01

    We surveyed the zooplankton of Lake St. Clair at 12 sites over ten dates from May to October 2000. Mean zooplankton density by site and date was 168.6 individuals/L, with Dreissena spp. veligers the most abundant taxon at 122.7 individuals/L. Rotifers, copepods, and cladocerans were far lower in mean abundance than in the early 1970s (rotifers, 20.9/L; copepods, 18.1/L; and cladocerans, 6.8/L). Species richness of zooplankton taxa in 2000 was 147, which was virtually unchanged from that of the first reported survey in 1894. Overall, the decline in abundance was greatest for rotifers (-90%) and about equal for cladocerans (-69%) and copepods (-66%). The decrease in abundance of Daphnia spp. was especially dramatic in Canadian waters. The decline in the southeastern region was significant for all three major groups of zooplankton, whereas in the northwestern region the decline was significant only for rotifers. From June to August 2000, Lake St. Clair open waters were numerically dominated by Dreissena spp. veligers, with a reduced abundance of rotifers and crustaceans compared to pre-Dreissena spp. surveys. Mean nutrient concentrations were not different from the 1970s, but Secchi depth (greater) and chlorophyll a concentration (lower) were. Disproportionate reduction in rotifer abundance is consistent with hypotheses implicating direct consumption by settled Dreissena spp. Reduction of crustaceans is likely due to more complex interactions including removal of nauplii as well as resource competition for phytoplankton.

  9. FORAGE FISH AND ZOOPLANKTON COMMUNITY COMPOSITION IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    We assessed the abundance, size, and species composition of the fish and zooplankton communities of western Lake Superior during 1996 and 1997. Data were analyzed for 3 ecoregions (Duluth-Superior (1), Apostle Islands (2), Minnesota coast (3) differing in lake bathymetry, phsiodo...

  10. Synergistic Interaction between Selective Drugs in Cell Populations Models

    PubMed Central

    Doldán-Martelli, Victoria; Míguez, David G.

    2015-01-01

    The design of selective drugs and combinatorial drug treatments are two of the main focuses in modern pharmacology. In this study we use a mathematical model of chimeric ligand-receptor interaction to show that the combination of selective drugs is synergistic in nature, providing a way to gain optimal selective potential at reduced doses compared to the same drugs when applied individually. We use a cell population model of proliferating cells expressing two different amounts of a target protein to show that both selectivity and synergism are robust against variability and heritability in the cell population. The reduction in the total drug administered due to the synergistic performance of the selective drugs can potentially result in reduced toxicity and off-target interactions, providing a mechanism to improve the treatment of cell-based diseases caused by aberrant gene overexpression, such as cancer and diabetes. PMID:25671700

  11. Synergistic interaction between selective drugs in cell populations models.

    PubMed

    Doldn-Martelli, Victoria; Mguez, David G

    2015-01-01

    The design of selective drugs and combinatorial drug treatments are two of the main focuses in modern pharmacology. In this study we use a mathematical model of chimeric ligand-receptor interaction to show that the combination of selective drugs is synergistic in nature, providing a way to gain optimal selective potential at reduced doses compared to the same drugs when applied individually. We use a cell population model of proliferating cells expressing two different amounts of a target protein to show that both selectivity and synergism are robust against variability and heritability in the cell population. The reduction in the total drug administered due to the synergistic performance of the selective drugs can potentially result in reduced toxicity and off-target interactions, providing a mechanism to improve the treatment of cell-based diseases caused by aberrant gene overexpression, such as cancer and diabetes. PMID:25671700

  12. Modelling population growth with delayed nonlocal reaction in 2-dimensions.

    PubMed

    Liang, Dong; Wu, Jianhong; Zhang, Fan

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the population growth of a single species living in a two-dimensional spatial domain. New reaction-difusion equation models with delayed nonlocal reaction are developed in two-dimensional bounded domains combining diferent boundary conditions. The important feature of the models is the reflection of the joint efect of the difusion dynamics and the nonlocal maturation delayed efect. We consider and ana- lyze numerical solutions of the mature population dynamics with some wellknown birth functions. In particular, we observe and study the occurrences of asymptotically stable steady state solutions and periodic waves for the two-dimensional problems with nonlocal delayed reaction. We also investigate numerically the efects of various parameters on the period, the peak and the shape of the periodic wave as well as the shape of the asymptotically stable steady state solution. PMID:20369915

  13. Integration of manatee life-history data and population modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eberhardt, L.L.; O'Shea, Thomas J.

    1995-01-01

    Aerial counts and the number of deaths have been a major focus of attention in attempts to understand the population status of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris). Uncertainties associated with these data have made interpretation difficult. However, knowledge of manatee life-history attributes increased and now permits the development of a population model. We describe a provisional model based on the classical approach of Lotka. Parameters in the model are based on data from'other papers in this volume and draw primarily on observations from the Crystal River, Blue Spring, and Adantic Coast areas. The model estimates X (the finite rate ofincrease) at each study area, and application ofthe delta method provides estimates of variance components and partial derivatives ofX with respectto key input parameters (reproduction, adult survival, and early survival). In some study areas, only approximations of some parameters are available. Estimates of X and coefficients of variation (in parentheses) of manatees were 1.07 (0.009) in the Crystal River, 1.06 (0.012) at Blue Spring, and 1.01 (0.012) on the Atlantic Coast. Changing adult survival has a major effect on X. Early-age survival has the smallest effect. Bootstrap comparisons of population growth estimates from trend counts in the Crystal River and at Blue Spring and the reproduction and survival data suggest that the higher, observed rates from counts are probably not due to chance. Bootstrapping for variance estimates based on reproduction and survival data from manatees at Blue Spring and in the Crystal River provided estimates of X, adult survival, and rates of reproduction that were similar to those obtained by other methods. Our estimates are preliminary and suggestimprovements for future data collection and analysis. However, results support efforts to reduce mortality as the most effective means to promote the increased growth necessary for the eventual recovery of the Florida manatee population.

  14. Development of zooplankton culture subsystem for a closed ecological recirculating aquaculture system (CERAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omori, Katsunori; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Takeuchi, Toshio

    2006-01-01

    Ten parthenogenetic females of Moina macrocopa were placed in small cells with different flow conditions. The cells were opened after three-days of cultivation, and the water fleas in each cell were counted. It appeared that M. macrocopa were cultured effectively in a relatively slow current, 10 cm/min., but the population growth was not significantly influenced by the difference in flow direction. Subsequent, filtration efficiencies of filters with various pore sizes were compared. Four available porous hollow-fiber membrane modules, ACP-1010, AHP-1010, PSP-103, and PMP-102 (Asahi-Kasei Corp.), were tested. The module with the larger pore size initially filtered a greater amount of water but clogged up sooner. ACP-1010, which has the smallest pores, was considered to be suitable to filter condensed algal water due to its durability and stable filtration. An improved zooplankton culture device (IZCD) was designed and constructed based on these examinations. IZCD is a 13.2L airtight device characterized by a short and thick rearing tank and alternate filtration with paired fine hollow-fiber membrane modules. It must be tested and revised to be used in research into the optimal conditions for a zooplankton culture in a closed environment.

  15. Induced pigmentation in zooplankton: a trade-off between threats from predation and ultraviolet radiation.

    PubMed

    Hansson, L A

    2000-11-22

    Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is harmful to all life, and the ongoing depletion of the ozone layer is likely to affect interactions among both terrestrial and aquatic organisms. Some organisms have evolved adaptations to reduce radiation damage, such as the various types of protective pigmentation of freshwater zooplankton. However, strong pigmentation also increases vulnerability to visually hunting predators. Hence, where both UV radiation and predation are intense, zooplankton may be sandwiched between conflicting selective pressures: to be pigmented and to be transparent at the same time. Here, I show that the level of pigmentation in copepods is up to ten times higher in lakes without predatory fishes than where fishes are present. Moreover, animals from the same population exposed to either UV light or predator scent showed a 10% difference in pigmentation after only four days, suggesting that pigmentation is an inducible trait. Hence, individual copepods are not passive victims of selective predation or radiation damage, but adjust the level of pigmentation according to the prevailing threat. The ability to adjust pigmentation level rapidly may be especially useful in situations where risk assessment is difficult due to strong seasonal and spatial variation in risk variables, such as in Arctic regions. With progressive thinning of the ozone layer, the ability of some but not other organisms to adjust protection against UV radiation may lead to counter-intuitive, large-scale alterations in freshwater food webs. PMID:11413651

  16. A Stochastic Super-Exponential Growth Model for Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avila, P.; Rekker, A.

    2010-11-01

    A super-exponential growth model with environmental noise has been studied analytically. Super-exponential growth rate is a property of dynamical systems exhibiting endogenous nonlinear positive feedback, i.e., of self-reinforcing systems. Environmental noise acts on the growth rate multiplicatively and is assumed to be Gaussian white noise in the Stratonovich interpretation. An analysis of the stochastic super-exponential growth model with derivations of exact analytical formulae for the conditional probability density and the mean value of the population abundance are presented. Interpretations and various applications of the results are discussed.

  17. The role of zooplankton in the cycling and remineralization of chemical materials in the Southern California Bight

    SciTech Connect

    Small, L.F.; Huh, Chih-An.

    1988-01-01

    The overall objective of our research is to understand the transport pathways and mass balances of selected metabolically active and inactive chemical species in the Santa Monica/San Pedro Basins. One focus of our study is to examine the role of zooplankton and micronekton in the cycling and remineralization of chemical materials in the Southern California Bight, with particular reference to C, N and certain radionuclides and trace metals. A second focus is to examine these same radionuclides and trace metals in other important reservoirs. Knowledge of the rates and routes of transfer of these nuclides and metals through these reservoirs should lead to a cogent model for these elements in SM/SP Basins. Our zooplankton C and N data, should lead ultimately to a model of C and N cycling in the upper water column. Our sediment core data will lead to the construction of mass balances and budgets in the SM/SP Basins. 4 refs.

  18. A population model of chaparral vegetation response to frequent wildfires.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Timothy A; Johns, Garrett; Jiang, Wancen; Yang, Lucie

    2013-12-01

    The recent increase in wildfire frequency in the Santa Monica Mountains (SMM) may substantially impact plant community structure. Species of Chaparral shrubs represent the dominant vegetation type in the SMM. These species can be divided into three life history types according to their response to wildfires. Nonsprouting species are completely killed by fire and reproduce by seeds that germinate in response to a fire cue, obligate sprouting species survive by resprouting from dormant buds in a root crown because their seeds are destroyed by fire, and facultative sprouting species recover after fire both by seeds and resprouts. Based on these assumptions, we developed a set of nonlinear difference equations to model each life history type. These models can be used to predict species survivorship under varying fire return intervals. For example, frequent fires can lead to localized extinction of nonsprouting species such as Ceanothus megacarpus while several facultative sprouting species such as Ceanothus spinosus and Malosma (Rhus) laurina will persist as documented by a longitudinal study in a biological preserve in the SMM. We estimated appropriate parameter values for several chaparral species using 25 years of data and explored parameter relationships that lead to equilibrium populations. We conclude by looking at the survival strategies of these three species of chaparral shrubs under varying fire return intervals and predict changes in plant community structure under fire intervals of short return. In particular, our model predicts that an average fire return interval of greater than 12 years is required for 50 % of the initial Ceanothus megacarpus population and 25 % of the initial Ceanothus spinosus population to survive. In contrast, we predict that the Malosma laurina population will have 90 % survivorship for an average fire return interval of at least 6 years. PMID:24091781

  19. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Sol, Ricard V.

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to steal lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  20. Modelling marine aerosol precursor vapours & impact on aerosol population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coleman, Liz; Monahan, Ciaran; Martin, Damien; O'Dowd, Colin

    2013-05-01

    Regional climate model REMOTE is employed to assess the impact of two new sources of marine aerosol precursor vapours (DMS and volatile organo-iodine vapours) on the aerosol population. Microphysical model M7 is applied within REMOTE to simulate gas to particle conversion processes. Results indicate new ultra-fine particle production of the order of 103 particles cm-3 in the North East Atlantic, predominantly due to the nucleation of iodinecontaining vapours. The consideration of DMS vapours in the model leads to an increase in sulphur gases (factor of 1.5-2) which is of sufficient magnitude to enhance the growth of accumulation mode particles over the model domain, the resulting effect on the radiative properties of the atmosphere of potential global significance.

  1. Modelling lipid competition dynamics in heterogeneous protocell populations.

    PubMed

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Sol, Ricard V

    2014-01-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to 'steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population. PMID:25024020

  2. Modelling Lipid Competition Dynamics in Heterogeneous Protocell Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirt-Ediss, Ben; Ruiz-Mirazo, Kepa; Mavelli, Fabio; Sol, Ricard V.

    2014-07-01

    Recent experimental work in the field of synthetic protocell biology has shown that prebiotic vesicles are able to `steal' lipids from each other. This phenomenon is driven purely by asymmetries in the physical state or composition of the vesicle membranes, and, when lipid resource is limited, translates directly into competition amongst the vesicles. Such a scenario is interesting from an origins of life perspective because a rudimentary form of cell-level selection emerges. To sharpen intuition about possible mechanisms underlying this behaviour, experimental work must be complemented with theoretical modelling. The aim of this paper is to provide a coarse-grain mathematical model of protocell lipid competition. Our model is capable of reproducing, often quantitatively, results from core experimental papers that reported distinct types vesicle competition. Additionally, we make some predictions untested in the lab, and develop a general numerical method for quickly solving the equilibrium point of a model vesicle population.

  3. Fast algorithm for population-based protein structural model analysis

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jingfen; Xu, Dong

    2013-01-01

    De novo protein structure prediction often generates a large population of candidates (models), and then selects near-native models through clustering. Existing structural model clustering methods are time consuming due to pairwise distance calculation between models. In this paper, we present a novel method for fast model clustering without losing the clustering accuracy. Instead of the commonly used pairwise root mean square deviation and TM-score values, we propose two new distance measures, Dscore1 and Dscore2, based on the comparison of the protein distance matrices for describing the difference and the similarity among models, respectively. The analysis indicates that both the correlation between Dscore1 and root mean square deviation and the correlation between Dscore2 and TM-score are high. Compared to the existing methods with calculation time quadratic to the number of models, our Dscore1-based clustering achieves a linearly time complexity while obtaining almost the same accuracy for near-native model selection. By using Dscore2 to select representatives of clusters, we can further improve the quality of the representatives with little increase in computing time. In addition, for large size (~500 k) models, we can give a fast data visualization based on the Dscore distribution in seconds to minutes. Our method has been implemented in a package named MUFOLD-CL, available at http://mufold.org/clustering.php. PMID:23184517

  4. CALIBRATING STELLAR POPULATION MODELS WITH MAGELLANIC CLOUD STAR CLUSTERS

    SciTech Connect

    Noeel, N. E. D.; Carollo, C. M.; Greggio, L.; Renzini, A.; Maraston, C.

    2013-07-20

    Stellar population models are commonly calculated using star clusters as calibrators for those evolutionary stages that depend on free parameters. However, discrepancies exist among different models, even if similar sets of calibration clusters are used. With the aim of understanding these discrepancies, and of improving the calibration procedure, we consider a set of 43 Magellanic Cloud (MC) clusters, taking age and photometric information from the literature. We carefully assign ages to each cluster based on up-to-date determinations, ensuring that these are as homogeneous as possible. To cope with statistical fluctuations, we stack the clusters in five age bins, deriving for each of them integrated luminosities and colors. We find that clusters become abruptly red in optical and optical-infrared colors as they age from {approx}0.6 to {approx}1 Gyr, which we interpret as due to the development of a well-populated thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB). We argue that other studies missed this detection because of coarser age binnings. Maraston and Girardi et al. models predict the presence of a populated TP-AGB at {approx}0.6 Gyr, with a correspondingly very red integrated color, at variance with the data; Bruzual and Charlot and Conroy models run within the error bars at all ages. The discrepancy between the synthetic colors of Maraston models and the average colors of MC clusters results from the now obsolete age scale adopted. Finally, our finding that the TP-AGB phase appears to develop between {approx}0.6 and 1 Gyr is dependent on the adopted age scale for the clusters and may have important implications for stellar evolution.

  5. Information-theoretic model selection and model averaging for closed-population capture-recapture studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, T.R.; Burnham, K.P.

    1998-01-01

    Specification of an appropriate model is critical to valid stalistical inference. Given the "true model" for the data is unknown, the goal of model selection is to select a plausible approximating model that balances model bias and sampling variance. Model selection based on information criteria such as AIC or its variant AICc, or criteria like CAIC, has proven useful in a variety of contexts including the analysis of open-population capture-recapture data. These criteria have not been intensively evaluated for closed-population capture-recapture models, which are integer parameter models used to estimate population size (N), and there is concern that they will not perform well. To address this concern, we evaluated AIC, AICc, and CAIC model selection for closed-population capture-recapture models by empirically assessing the quality of inference for the population size parameter N. We found that AIC-, AICc-, and CAIC-selected models had smaller relative mean squared errors than randomly selected models, but that confidence interval coverage on N was poor unless unconditional variance estimates (which incorporate model uncertainty) were used to compute confidence intervals. Overall, AIC and AICc outperformed CAIC, and are preferred to CAIC for selection among the closed-population capture-recapture models we investigated. A model averaging approach to estimation, using AIC. AICc, or CAIC to estimate weights, was also investigated and proved superior to estimation using AIC-, AICc-, or CAIC-selected models. Our results suggested that, for model averaging, AIC or AICc. should be favored over CAIC for estimating weights.

  6. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    International Planned Parenthood Federation, London (England).

    In an effort to help meet the growing interest and concern about the problems created by the rapid growth of population, The International Planned Parenthood Federation has prepared this booklet with the aim of assisting the study of the history and future trends of population growth and its impact on individual and family welfare, national,…

  7. Trophic accumulation of PSP toxins in zooplankton during Alexandrium fundyense blooms in Casco Bay, Gulf of Maine, April June 1998. I. Toxin levels in A. fundyense and zooplankton size fractions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doucette, Gregory J.; Turner, Jefferson T.; Powell, Christine L.; Keafer, Bruce A.; Anderson, Donald M.

    2005-09-01

    The transfer of marine algal toxins involving a range of phytoplanktivorous vectors is well documented as a means of exposing organisms at higher trophic levels (including humans) to these naturally occurring yet harmful compounds. While previous studies have examined the potential for, and dynamics of, algal toxin accumulation by individual zooplankton species, few have attempted to distinguish the contribution of various grazer size classes to toxin trophic transfer in natural communities and characterize some of the factors that can influence this process. The current investigation was aimed at describing the size-fractioned (64-100, 100-200, 200-500, >500 ?m) accumulation of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins by zooplankton in Casco Bay and the adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Maine during a series of cruises from April to June 1998. Several variables, including the abundance of PSP toxin-producing Alexandrium fundyense, in-water toxin concentrations associated with this dinoflagellate, and algal toxin cell quotas, were measured and their relationship to zooplankton toxin accumulation assessed. A principal finding of this work was the ability of any grazer size class examined (including grazers present in the 20-64 ?m A. fundyense-containing fraction) to serve as an initial vector for introducing PSP toxins into the Casco Bay food web at various times during the sampling period, thereby providing multiple potential routes of toxin trophic transfer. In addition, trends observed in the coincident mapping of A. fundyense cells and their associated toxin were generally in agreement, yet did not remain closely coupled at all times. Therefore, although A. fundyense abundance can be a reasonable indicator of PSP toxin presence in the phytoplankton, this relationship can vary considerably and lead to situations where elevated toxin levels occur at low cell concentrations and vice versa. The uncoupling of A. fundyense cell and in-water toxin concentrations in the 20-64 ?m, A. fundyense-containing size fraction implied fluctuations in the algal toxin cell quota, which ranged from ca. 10 to 2000 fmol STX equiv. cell -1. Some of this variability may reflect the changing presence in this size fraction of grazers (e.g., tintinnids) capable of toxin accumulation, causing an upward bias in A. fundyense toxin cell quota estimates. Overall, the extent of PSP toxin transfer into zooplankton will be determined by a complex interaction among several factors, including A. fundyense and grazer abundance, algal toxin cell quota, and zooplankton community composition. An ability to predict zooplankton toxin accumulation will require further investigation of the relationships between these and other factors, aimed specifically at modeling the process of toxin trophic transfer to grazers and ultimately to their predators.

  8. Medaka: a promising model animal for comparative population genomics

    PubMed Central

    Matsumoto, Yoshifumi; Oota, Hiroki; Asaoka, Yoichi; Nishina, Hiroshi; Watanabe, Koji; Bujnicki, Janusz M; Oda, Shoji; Kawamura, Shoji; Mitani, Hiroshi

    2009-01-01

    Background Within-species genome diversity has been best studied in humans. The international HapMap project has revealed a tremendous amount of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among humans, many of which show signals of positive selection during human evolution. In most of the cases, however, functional differences between the alleles remain experimentally unverified due to the inherent difficulty of human genetic studies. It would therefore be highly useful to have a vertebrate model with the following characteristics: (1) high within-species genetic diversity, (2) a variety of gene-manipulation protocols already developed, and (3) a completely sequenced genome. Medaka (Oryzias latipes) and its congeneric species, tiny fresh-water teleosts distributed broadly in East and Southeast Asia, meet these criteria. Findings Using Oryzias species from 27 local populations, we conducted a simple screening of nonsynonymous SNPs for 11 genes with apparent orthology between medaka and humans. We found medaka SNPs for which the same sites in human orthologs are known to be highly differentiated among the HapMap populations. Importantly, some of these SNPs show signals of positive selection. Conclusion These results indicate that medaka is a promising model system for comparative population genomics exploring the functional and adaptive significance of allelic differentiations. PMID:19426554

  9. An integro-PDE model from population genetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lou, Yuan; Nagylaki, Thomas; Su, Linlin

    We investigate an integro-partial differential equation that models the evolution of the frequencies for two alleles at a single locus under the joint action of migration, selection, and partial panmixia (i.e., global random mating). We extend previous analyses [T. Nagylaki, Clines with partial panmixia, Theor. Popul. Biol. 81 (2012) 45-68] on the maintenance of both alleles from conservative to arbitrary migration and prove the uniqueness and global asymptotic stability of the nontrivial equilibrium. For conservative migration, we show that increasing the rate of panmixia makes it harder to maintain the allele with the smaller average fitness in the population. In terms of the selection function, we estimate the dependence on the panmictic rate of the minimal value of the selection intensity for the persistence of the allele with the smaller average fitness. We also show that, at least in an average sense, increasing panmixia flattens the cline.

  10. Exact Solution of Population Redistributions in a Migration Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xue-Wen; Zhang, Li-Jie; Yang, Guo-Hong; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2013-10-01

    We study a migration model, in which individuals migrate from one community to another. The choices of the source community i and the destination one j are proportional to some power of the population of i (kαi) and j (kβj), respectively. Both analytical calculation and numerical simulation show that the population distribution of communities in stationary states is determined by the parameters α and β. The distribution is widely homogeneous with a characteristic size if α > β. Whereas, for α < β, the distribution is highly heterogeneous with the emergence of condensing phenomenon. Between the two regimes, α = β, the distribution gradually shifts from the nonmonotonous (α < 0) to scale-free (α > 0).

  11. Population genetics of Setaria viridis, a new model system.

    PubMed

    Huang, Pu; Feldman, Maximilian; Schroder, Stephan; Bahri, Bochra A; Diao, Xianmin; Zhi, Hui; Estep, Matt; Baxter, Ivan; Devos, Katrien M; Kellogg, Elizabeth A

    2014-10-01

    An extensive survey of the standing genetic variation in natural populations is among the priority steps in developing a species into a model system. In recent years, green foxtail (Setaria viridis), along with its domesticated form foxtail millet (S. italica), has rapidly become a promising new model system for C4 grasses and bioenergy crops, due to its rapid life cycle, large amount of seed production and small diploid genome, among other characters. However, remarkably little is known about the genetic diversity in natural populations of this species. In this study, we survey the genetic diversity of a worldwide sample of more than 200 S. viridis accessions, using the genotyping-by-sequencing technique. Two distinct genetic groups in S. viridis and a third group resembling S. italica were identified, with considerable admixture among the three groups. We find the genetic variation of North American S. viridis correlates with both geography and climate and is representative of the total genetic diversity in this species. This pattern may reflect several introduction/dispersal events of S. viridis into North America. We also modelled demographic history and show signal of recent population decline in one subgroup. Finally, we show linkage disequilibrium decay is rapid (<45 kb) in our total sample and slow in genetic subgroups. These results together provide an in-depth understanding of the pattern of genetic diversity of this new model species on a broad geographic scale. They also provide key guidelines for on-going and future work including germplasm preservation, local adaptation, crossing designs and genomewide association studies. PMID:25185718

  12. Modelling Multi-Pulse Population Dynamics from Ultrafast Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    van Wilderen, Luuk J. G. W.; Lincoln, Craig N.; van Thor, Jasper J.

    2011-01-01

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is essential to model and resolve the details of physical behaviour of populations in ultrafast spectroscopy such as pump-probe, pump-dump-probe and pump-repump-probe experiments. PMID:21445294

  13. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Jacobs, Matthieu; Grégoire, Nicolas; Couet, William; Bulitta, Jurgen B.

    2016-01-01

    Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and ultimately patients. PMID:26967893

  14. Distinguishing Antimicrobial Models with Different Resistance Mechanisms via Population Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Matthieu; Grégoire, Nicolas; Couet, William; Bulitta, Jurgen B

    2016-03-01

    Semi-mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling is increasingly used for antimicrobial drug development and optimization of dosage regimens, but systematic simulation-estimation studies to distinguish between competing PD models are lacking. This study compared the ability of static and dynamic in vitro infection models to distinguish between models with different resistance mechanisms and support accurate and precise parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed for models with one susceptible bacterial population without (M1) or with a resting stage (M2), a one population model with adaptive resistance (M5), models with pre-existing susceptible and resistant populations without (M3) or with (M4) inter-conversion, and a model with two pre-existing populations with adaptive resistance (M6). For each model, 200 datasets of the total bacterial population were simulated over 24h using static antibiotic concentrations (256-fold concentration range) or over 48h under dynamic conditions (dosing every 12h; elimination half-life: 1h). Twelve-hundred random datasets (each containing 20 curves for static or four curves for dynamic conditions) were generated by bootstrapping. Each dataset was estimated by all six models via population PD modeling to compare bias and precision. For M1 and M3, most parameter estimates were unbiased (<10%) and had good imprecision (<30%). However, parameters for adaptive resistance and inter-conversion for M2, M4, M5 and M6 had poor bias and large imprecision under static and dynamic conditions. For datasets that only contained viable counts of the total population, common statistical criteria and diagnostic plots did not support sound identification of the true resistance mechanism. Therefore, it seems advisable to quantify resistant bacteria and characterize their MICs and resistance mechanisms to support extended simulations and translate from in vitro experiments to animal infection models and ultimately patients. PMID:26967893

  15. Fossil zooplankton and the historical status of westslope cutthroat trout in a headwater lake of Glacier National Park, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verschuren, D.; Marnell, L.F.

    1997-01-01

    Surviving pure-strain populations of westslope cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi in headwater lakes of Glacier National Park could play an important role in the managed recovery of regional cutthroat trout fisheries. However, uncertainty exists about whether native trout could have naturally invaded several park lakes where they now occur. This study used paleolimnological techniques to address the question of whether the population of native trout in Avalanche Lake is indigenous or became established through an undocumented introduction. The validity of using fossil diapause eggs (ephippia) of the fish-sensitive cladocerans Daphnia spp. as indicators for the historical presence of zooplanktivorous fish was tested with a survey of live zooplankton and corresponding surface-sediment fossil assemblages in eight Glacier Park lakes with or without trout. Analysis of a sediment core from Avalanche Lake dated by lead radioisotopes, historical wildfires, and a flood allowed reconstruction of zooplankton dynamics from about 1700 A.D. to the present. Fossil Daphnia ephippia were rare or absent in Avalanche Lake sediments deposited before 1910, suggesting intense zooplanktivory due to sustained presence of an indigenous population of native cutthroat trout. Fossil evidence for larger Daphnia populations in the 1930s and early 1940s revealed a temporary disturbance of the lake's normal food web interactions during which zooplanktivory was significantly reduced. This disturbance may have resulted from a collapse of the native trout population caused indirectly by failed attempts between 1915 and 1943 to stock Avalanche Lake with Yellowstone cutthroat trout O. clarki bouvieri.

  16. Spring bloom dynamics and zooplankton biomass response on the US Northeast Continental Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Leaf, Robert T.; Kane, Joe; Tommasi, Desiree; Asch, Rebecca G.; Rebuck, Nathan; Ji, Rubao; Large, Scott I.; Stock, Charles; Saba, Vincent S.

    2015-07-01

    The spring phytoplankton bloom on the US Northeast Continental Shelf is a feature of the ecosystem production cycle that varies annually in timing, spatial extent, and magnitude. To quantify this variability, we analyzed remotely-sensed ocean color data at two spatial scales, one based on ecologically defined sub-units of the ecosystem (production units) and the other on a regular grid (0.5°). Five units were defined: Gulf of Maine East and West, Georges Bank, and Middle Atlantic Bight North and South. The units averaged 47×103 km2 in size. The initiation and termination of the spring bloom were determined using change-point analysis with constraints on what was identified as a bloom based on climatological bloom patterns. A discrete spring bloom was detected in most years over much of the western Gulf of Maine production unit. However, bloom frequency declined in the eastern Gulf of Maine and transitioned to frequencies as low as 50% along the southern flank of the Georges Bank production unit. Detectable spring blooms were episodic in the Middle Atlantic Bight production units. In the western Gulf of Maine, bloom duration was inversely related to bloom start day; thus, early blooms tended to be longer lasting and larger magnitude blooms. We view this as a phenological mismatch between bloom timing and the "top-down" grazing pressure that terminates a bloom. Estimates of secondary production were available from plankton surveys that provided spring indices of zooplankton biovolume. Winter chlorophyll biomass had little effect on spring zooplankton biovolume, whereas spring chlorophyll biomass had mixed effects on biovolume. There was evidence of a "bottom up" response seen on Georges Bank where spring zooplankton biovolume was positively correlated with the concentration of chlorophyll. However, in the western Gulf of Maine, biovolume was uncorrelated with chlorophyll concentration, but was positively correlated with bloom start and negatively correlated with magnitude. This observation is consistent with both a "top-down" mechanism of control of the bloom and a "bottom-up" effect of bloom timing on zooplankton grazing. Our inability to form a consistent model of these relationships across adjacent systems underscores the need for further research.

  17. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sohee; Shin, Aesun; Yang, Hye-Ryung; Park, Junghyun; Choi, Il Ju; Kim, Young-Woo; Kim, Jeongseon; Nam, Byung-Ho

    2015-01-01

    Background Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea. Method Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrells C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope. Results During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women). Conclusions In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance. PMID:26186332

  18. Individual-based model of young-of-the-year striped bass population dynamics. II. Factors affecting recruitment in the Potomac River, Maryland

    SciTech Connect

    Cowan, J.H. ); Rose, K.A. ); Rutherford, E.S.; Houde, E.D. )

    1993-05-01

    An individual-based model of the population dynamics of young-of-the-year striped bass Morone saxatilis in the Potomac River, Maryland, was used to test the hypothesis that historically high recruitment variability can be explained by changes in environmental and biological factors that result in relatively small changes in growth and mortality rates of striped bass larvae. The four factors examined were (1) size distribution of female parents, (2) zooplankton prey density during the development of striped bass larvae, (3) density of completing larval white perch M. americana, and (4) temperature during larval development. Simulation results suggest that variations in female size and in prey for larvae alone could cause 10-fold variability in recruitment. But no single factor alone caused changes in vital rates of age-0 fish that could account for the 145-fold variability in the Potomac River index of juvenile recruitment. However, combined positive or negative effects of two or more factors resulted in more than a 150-fold simulated recruitment variability, suggesting that combinations of factors can account for the high observed annual variability in striped bass recruitment success. Higher cumulative mortality of feeding larvae and younger life stages than of juveniles was common to all simulations. supporting the contention that striped bass year-class strength is determined prior to metamorphosis. 76 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.

  19. The Impact of Fish Predation and Cyanobacteria on Zooplankton Size Structure in 96 Subtropical Lakes

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jing; Xie, Ping; Tao, Min; Guo, Longgen; Chen, Jun; Li, Li; XueZhen Zhang; Zhang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Zooplankton are relatively small in size in the subtropical regions. This characteristic has been attributed to intense predation pressure, high nutrient loading and cyanobacterial biomass. To provide further information on the effect of predation and cyanobacteria on zooplankton size structure, we analyzed data from 96 shallow aquaculture lakes along the Yangtze River. Contrary to former studies, both principal components analysis and multiple regression analysis showed that the mean zooplankton size was positively related to fish yield. The studied lakes were grouped into three types, namely, natural fishing lakes with low nutrient loading (Type1), planktivorous fish-dominated lakes (Type 2), and eutrophic lakes with high cyanobacterial biomass (Type 3). A marked difference in zooplankton size structure was found among these groups. The greatest mean zooplankton size was observed in Type 2 lakes, but zooplankton density was the lowest. Zooplankton abundance was highest in Type 3 lakes and increased with increasing cyanobacterial biomass. Zooplankton mean size was negatively correlated with cyanobacterial biomass. No obvious trends were found in Type 1 lakes. These results were reflected by the normalized biomass size spectrum, which showed a unimodal shape with a peak at medium sizes in Type 2 lakes and a peak at small sizes in Type 3 lakes. These results indicated a relative increase in medium-sized and small-sized species in Types 2 and 3 lakes, respectively. Our results suggested that fish predation might have a negative effect on zooplankton abundance but a positive effect on zooplankton size structure. High cyanobacterial biomass most likely caused a decline in the zooplankton size and encouraged the proliferation of small zooplankton. We suggest that both planktivorous fish and cyanobacteria have substantial effects on the shaping of zooplankton community, particularly in the lakes in the eastern plain along the Yangtze River where aquaculture is widespread and nutrient loading is high. PMID:24124552

  20. Comparison of multifrequency acoustic and in situ measurements of zooplankton abundances in Knight Inlet, British Columbia.

    PubMed

    Trevorrow, Mark V; Mackas, David L; Benfield, Mark C

    2005-06-01

    An investigation of midwater zooplankton aggregations in a coastal fjord was conducted in November 2002. This study focused on quantitative comparisons between a calibrated, three-frequency (38, 120, and 200 kHz) vessel-based echo-sounder, a multinet towed zooplankton sampler (BIONESS), and a high-resolution underwater camera (ZOOVIS). Daytime layers of euphausiids and amphipods near 70-90-m depth were observed in lower parts of the inlet, especially concentrated by tidal flows around a sill. Quantitative backscatter measurements of euphausiids and amphipods, combined with in situ size and abundance estimates, and using an assumed tilt-angle distribution, were in agreement with averaged fluid-cylinder scattering models produced by Stanton and Chu [ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 793-807, (2000)]. Acoustic measurements of physonect siphonophores in the upper inlet were found to have a strong 38-kHz scattering strength, in agreement with a damped bubble scattering model using a diameter of 0.4 mm. In relatively dense euphausiid layers, ZOOVIS abundance estimates were found to be a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the acoustic estimates, potentially due to deviations from assumed euphausiid orientation. Nocturnal near-surface euphausiid scattering exhibited a strong (15 dB) and rapid (seconds) sensitivity to vessel lights, interpreted as due to changing animal orientation. PMID:16018461

  1. The model of fungal population dynamics affected by nystatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Voychuk, Sergei I.; Gromozova, Elena N.; Sadovskiy, Mikhail G.

    Fungal diseases are acute problems of the up-to-day medicine. Significant increase of resistance of microorganisms to the medically used antibiotics and a lack of new effective drugs follows in a growth of dosage of existing chemicals to solve the problem. Quite often such approach results in side effects on humans. Detailed study of fungi-antibiotic dynamics can identify new mechanisms and bring new ideas to overcome the microbial resistance with a lower dosage of antibiotics. In this study, the dynamics of the microbial population under antibiotic treatment was investigated. The effects of nystatin on the population of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeasts were used as a model system. Nystatin effects were investigated both in liquid and solid media by viability tests. Dependence of nystatin action on osmotic gradient was evaluated in NaCl solutions. Influences of glucose and yeast extract were additionally analyzed. A "stepwise" pattern of the cell death caused by nystatin was the most intriguing. This pattern manifested in periodical changes of the stages of cell death against stages of resistance to the antibiotic. The mathematical model was proposed to describe cell-antibiotic interactions and nystatin viability effects in the liquid medium. The model implies that antibiotic ability to cause a cells death is significantly affected by the intracellular compounds, which came out of cells after their osmotic barriers were damaged

  2. Mathematical modeling of glassy-winged sharpshooter population.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Jeong-Mi; Hrynkiv, Volodymyr; Morano, Lisa; Nguyen, Anh Tuan; Wilder, Sara; Mitchell, Forrest

    2014-06-01

    Pierce's disease (PD) is a fatal disease of grapevines which results from an infection by the plant pathogen Xyllela fastidiosa. This bacterium grows in the xylem (water-conducting) vessels of the plant blocking movement of water. PD can kill vines in one year and poses a serious threat to both the California and the expanding Texas wine industries. Bacteria are vectored from one vine to the next by a number of xylem feeding insect species. Of these, the Glassy-winged Sharpshooter (GWSS) is considered to be the primary xylem feeding insect in Texas vineyards. An extensive database of the xylem-feeding population frequencies was collected by USDA-APHIS for Texas vineyards over multiple years. This project focused on a subset of data, GWSS frequencies within 25 vineyards in Edwards Plateau located in central Texas. The proposed model investigates the natural population dynamics and the decline in GWSS, likely the result of pest management campaigns on the insects within the region. The model is a delay Gompertz differential equation with harvesting and immigration terms, and we use the data to estimate the model parameters. PMID:24506556

  3. Late stages of stellar evolution in population models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraston, Claudia

    2015-04-01

    My contribution to Roger's celebration symposium focuses on the treatment of late stellar evolutionary phases in stellar population models, reviewing the state of art and discussing some very recent developments, ranging from local stellar clusters up to distant galaxies at high redshift. I shall focus in particular on the Thermally Pulsating Asymptotic Giant Branch, about which a vivid discussion has been ongoing since a few years. I shall present renewed evidence in favour of a sizable contribution from this phase for matching the observed spectral energy distribution of distant massive galaxies. I shall also discuss the possible reasons why such a conclusion has been controversial in the recent literature. Stellar population models are the magic tool to shape the physics of galaxies out of their observed light, and enter virtually all papers presented at this symposium. In a collective effort to properly treat all relevant aspects of the modelling, we split the discussion into six contributions given by experts in the field, as our present to Roger and his outstanding career.

  4. The evolutionary potential of paramutation: a population-epigenetic model.

    PubMed

    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Spencer, Hamish G

    2013-09-01

    Paramutation involves an interaction between homologous alleles resulting in a heritable change in gene expression without altering the DNA sequence. Initially believed to be restricted to plants, paramutation has recently been observed in animal models, and a paramutation-like event has been noted in humans. Despite the accumulating evidence suggesting that trans-acting epigenetic effects can be inherited transgenerationally and therefore generate non-genomic phenotypic variation, these effects have been largely ignored in the context of evolutionary theory. The model presented here incorporates paramutation into the standard model of viability selection at one locus and demonstrates that paramutation can create long-term biological diversity in the absence of genetic change, and even in the absence of the original paramutagenic allele. Therefore, if paramutation is present, attributing evolution to only a traditional genetic model may fail to encompass the broad scope of phenotypic differences observed in nature. Moreover, we show also that an unusual mathematical behaviour, analogous to "Ewens' gap" of the two-locus two-allele symmetric-selection model, occurs: when the rate of one parameter-for example, the rate of paramutation-is increased, a pair of equilibria may disappear only to reappear as this parameter increases further. In summary, by incorporating even the simplest epigenetic parameters into the standard population-genetic model of selection, we show how this type of inheritance system can profoundly alter the course of evolution. PMID:23751219

  5. Species-specific and context-dependant disruption of temporal population fluctuations resulting from hypereutrophication events.

    PubMed

    Angeler, David G

    2009-11-01

    This study quantifies the disruption of zooplankton population fluctuations in relation to two magnitudes of fire retardant contamination events using artificial ponds as model systems. Population time series were analysed using redundancy analysis where time was modelled with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices approach that identified relevant scales of fluctuation frequencies. Analyses of temporal coherence provided insight whether population fluctuations correlated with system intrinsic or extrinsic forces. Responses to stress were species-specific and context-dependant. Contamination changed temporal structure in some species. These alterations were associated with an increased intrinsic control of dynamics. In some cases the magnitude of impact was unrelated to contamination severity. Some populations were less tolerant of pollution in the low relative to the high concentration treatment. Results suggest that population-level monitoring of degraded sites may be suboptimal because disparate population responses complicate the selection of specific sentinel organisms to monitor stress. PMID:19482393

  6. Bacterial bioluminescence as a lure for marine zooplankton and fish

    PubMed Central

    Zarubin, Margarita; Belkin, Shimshon; Ionescu, Michael; Genin, Amatzia

    2012-01-01

    The benefits of bioluminescence for nonsymbiotic marine bacteria have not been elucidated fully. One of the most commonly cited explanations, proposed more than 30 y ago, is that bioluminescence augments the propagation and dispersal of bacteria by attracting fish to consume the luminous material. This hypothesis, based mostly on the prevalence of luminous bacteria in fish guts, has not been tested experimentally. Here we show that zooplankton that contacts and feeds on the luminescent bacterium Photobacterium leiognathi starts to glow, and demonstrate by video recordings that glowing individuals are highly vulnerable to predation by nocturnal fish. Glowing bacteria thereby are transferred to the nutritious guts of fish and zooplankton, where they survive digestion and gain effective means for growth and dispersal. Using bioluminescence as bait appears to be highly beneficial for marine bacteria, especially in food-deprived environments of the deep sea. PMID:22203999

  7. Zooplankton as Potential Indicators of Biotic Condition in Large Rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medley, K. A.; Havel, J. E.; Jack, J. D.

    2005-05-01

    As part of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, we are examining zooplankton diversity and abundance in three large rivers (Missouri, Ohio, and upper Mississippi). These rivers are particularly interesting because of large differences in their hydrologic patterns, resulting primarily from their different management strategies. Preliminary data from summer 2004 surveys of the Missouri and Ohio rivers reveals high taxonomic diversity of rotifers (32 genera), cladocerans (22 species), and copepods. Rotifers are numerically dominant in all river samples except in the late summer Ohio River samples, where they are occasionally co-dominant with calanoid copepods. Using multivariate analyses, we will present a comparison of zooplankton diversity between rivers, among sites within rivers, and correspondence with 35 physico-chemical properties of the river. These data will be used to develop bioindicators of the current condition of each river in order to support conservation and restoration decisions by management agencies.

  8. Bacterial bioluminescence as a lure for marine zooplankton and fish.

    PubMed

    Zarubin, Margarita; Belkin, Shimshon; Ionescu, Michael; Genin, Amatzia

    2012-01-17

    The benefits of bioluminescence for nonsymbiotic marine bacteria have not been elucidated fully. One of the most commonly cited explanations, proposed more than 30 y ago, is that bioluminescence augments the propagation and dispersal of bacteria by attracting fish to consume the luminous material. This hypothesis, based mostly on the prevalence of luminous bacteria in fish guts, has not been tested experimentally. Here we show that zooplankton that contacts and feeds on the luminescent bacterium Photobacterium leiognathi starts to glow, and demonstrate by video recordings that glowing individuals are highly vulnerable to predation by nocturnal fish. Glowing bacteria thereby are transferred to the nutritious guts of fish and zooplankton, where they survive digestion and gain effective means for growth and dispersal. Using bioluminescence as bait appears to be highly beneficial for marine bacteria, especially in food-deprived environments of the deep sea. PMID:22203999

  9. Zooplankton fecal pellets link fossil fuel and phosphate deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.G.; Robbins, E.I.

    1981-01-01

    Fossil zooplankton fecal pellets found in thinly bedded marine and lacustrine black shales associated with phosphate, oil, and coal deposits, link the deposition of organic matter and biologically associated minerals with planktonic ecosystems. The black shales were probably formed in the anoxic basins of coastal marine waters, inland seas, and rift valley lakes where high productivity was supported by runoff, upwelling, and outwelling. Copyright ?? 1981 AAAS.

  10. Flow disturbances generated by feeding and swimming zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Kirboe, Thomas; Jiang, Houshuo; Gonalves, Rodrigo Javier; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Wadhwa, Navish

    2014-08-12

    Interactions between planktonic organisms, such as detection of prey, predators, and mates, are often mediated by fluid signals. Consequently, many plankton predators perceive their prey from the fluid disturbances that it generates when it feeds and swims. Zooplankton should therefore seek to minimize the fluid disturbance that they produce. By means of particle image velocimetry, we describe the fluid disturbances produced by feeding and swimming in zooplankton with diverse propulsion mechanisms and ranging from 10-m flagellates to greater than millimeter-sized copepods. We show that zooplankton, in which feeding and swimming are separate processes, produce flow disturbances during swimming with a much faster spatial attenuation (velocity u varies with distance r as u ? r(-3) to r(-4)) than that produced by zooplankton for which feeding and propulsion are the same process (u ? r(-1) to r(-2)). As a result, the spatial extension of the fluid disturbance produced by swimmers is an order of magnitude smaller than that produced by feeders at similar Reynolds numbers. The "quiet" propulsion of swimmers is achieved either through swimming erratically by short-lasting power strokes, generating viscous vortex rings, or by "breast-stroke swimming." Both produce rapidly attenuating flows. The more "noisy" swimming of those that are constrained by a need to simultaneously feed is due to constantly beating flagella or appendages that are positioned either anteriorly or posteriorly on the (cell) body. These patterns transcend differences in size and taxonomy and have thus evolved multiple times, suggesting a strong selective pressure to minimize predation risk. PMID:25071196

  11. Ingestion of Microplastics by Zooplankton in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.

    PubMed

    Desforges, Jean-Pierre W; Galbraith, Moira; Ross, Peter S

    2015-10-01

    Microplastics are increasingly recognized as being widespread in the world's oceans, but relatively little is known about ingestion by marine biota. In light of the potential for microplastic fibers and fragments to be taken up by small marine organisms, we examined plastic ingestion by two foundation species near the base of North Pacific marine food webs, the calanoid copepod Neocalanus cristatus and the euphausiid Euphausia pacifia. We developed an acid digestion method to assess plastic ingestion by individual zooplankton and detected microplastics in both species. Encounter rates resulting from ingestion were 1 particle/every 34 copepods and 1/every 17 euphausiids (euphausiids > copepods; p = 0.01). Consistent with differences in the size selection of food between these two zooplankton species, the ingested particle size was greater in euphausiids (816 ± 108 μm) than in copepods (556 ± 149 μm) (p = 0.014). The contribution of ingested microplastic fibres to total plastic decreased with distance from shore in euphausiids (r (2) = 70, p = 0.003), corresponding to patterns in our previous observations of microplastics in seawater samples from the same locations. This first evidence of microplastic ingestion by marine zooplankton indicate that species at lower trophic levels of the marine food web are mistaking plastic for food, which raises fundamental questions about potential risks to higher trophic level species. One concern is risk to salmon: We estimate that consumption of microplastic-containing zooplankton will lead to the ingestion of 2-7 microplastic particles/day by individual juvenile salmon in coastal British Columbia, and ≤91 microplastic particles/day in returning adults. PMID:26066061

  12. Flow disturbances generated by feeding and swimming zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Kirboe, Thomas; Jiang, Houshuo; Gonalves, Rodrigo Javier; Nielsen, Lasse Tor; Wadhwa, Navish

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between planktonic organisms, such as detection of prey, predators, and mates, are often mediated by fluid signals. Consequently, many plankton predators perceive their prey from the fluid disturbances that it generates when it feeds and swims. Zooplankton should therefore seek to minimize the fluid disturbance that they produce. By means of particle image velocimetry, we describe the fluid disturbances produced by feeding and swimming in zooplankton with diverse propulsion mechanisms and ranging from 10-m flagellates to greater than millimeter-sized copepods. We show that zooplankton, in which feeding and swimming are separate processes, produce flow disturbances during swimming with a much faster spatial attenuation (velocity u varies with distance r as u ? r?3 to r?4) than that produced by zooplankton for which feeding and propulsion are the same process (u ? r?1 to r?2). As a result, the spatial extension of the fluid disturbance produced by swimmers is an order of magnitude smaller than that produced by feeders at similar Reynolds numbers. The quiet propulsion of swimmers is achieved either through swimming erratically by short-lasting power strokes, generating viscous vortex rings, or by breast-stroke swimming. Both produce rapidly attenuating flows. The more noisy swimming of those that are constrained by a need to simultaneously feed is due to constantly beating flagella or appendages that are positioned either anteriorly or posteriorly on the (cell) body. These patterns transcend differences in size and taxonomy and have thus evolved multiple times, suggesting a strong selective pressure to minimize predation risk. PMID:25071196

  13. MULTISCALE MODELS OF TAXIS-DRIVEN PATTERNING IN BACTERIAL POPULATIONS

    PubMed Central

    XUE, CHUAN; OTHMER, HANS G.

    2009-01-01

    Spatially-distributed populations of various types of bacteria often display intricate spatial patterns that are thought to result from the cellular response to gradients of nutrients or other attractants. In the past decade a great deal has been learned about signal transduction, metabolism and movement in E. coli and other bacteria, but translating the individual-level behavior into population-level dynamics is still a challenging problem. However, this is a necessary step because it is computationally impractical to use a strictly cell-based model to understand patterning in growing populations, since the total number of cells may reach 1012 - 1014 in some experiments. In the past phenomenological equations such as the Patlak-Keller-Segel equations have been used in modeling the cell movement that is involved in the formation of such patterns, but the question remains as to how the microscopic behavior can be correctly described by a macroscopic equation. Significant progress has been made for bacterial species that employ a “run-and-tumble” strategy of movement, in that macroscopic equations based on simplified schemes for signal transduction and turning behavior have been derived [14, 15]. Here we extend previous work in a number of directions: (i) we allow for time-dependent signals, which extends the applicability of the equations to natural environments, (ii) we use a more general turning rate function that better describes the biological behavior, and (iii) we incorporate the effect of hydrodynamic forces that arise when cells swim in close proximity to a surface. We also develop a new approach to solving the moment equations derived from the transport equation that does not involve closure assumptions. Numerical examples show that the solution of the lowest-order macroscopic equation agrees well with the solution obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation of cell movement under a variety of temporal protocols for the signal. We also apply the method to derive equations of chemotactic movement that are governed by multiple chemotactic signals. PMID:19784399

  14. Mathematical model of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti mosquito population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldila, D.; Nuraini, N.; Soewono, E.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2014-03-01

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector of dengue disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Dengue became major public concern in these countries due to the unavailability of vaccine or drugs for dengue disease in the market. Hence, the only way to control the spread of DF and DHF is by controlling the vectors carrying the disease, for instance with fumigation, temephos or genetic manipulation. Many previous studies conclude that Aedes aegypti may develop resistance to many kind of insecticide, including temephos. Mathematical model for transmission of temephos resistance in Aedes aegypti population is discussed in this paper. Nontrivial equilibrium point of the system and the corresponding existence are shown analytically. The model analysis have shown epidemiological trends condition that permits the coexistence of nontrivial equilibrium is given analytically. Numerical results are given to show parameter sensitivity and some cases of worsening effect values for illustrating possible conditions in the field.

  15. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.

    PubMed

    Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G

    2008-10-23

    Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change. PMID:18664424

  16. Estimating population trends with a linear model: technical comments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

  17. Modelling Oyster Population Response to Variation in Freshwater Input

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livingston, R. J.; Lewis, F. G.; Woodsum, G. C.; Niu, X.-F.; Galperin, B.; Huang, W.; Christensen, J. D.; Monaco, M. E.; Battista, T. A.; Klein, C. J.; Howell, R. L.; Ray, G. L.

    2000-05-01

    This paper describes the linkage of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic circulation model with descriptive and experimental biological data concerning oyster (Crassostrea virginica) population dynamics in the Apalachicola Estuary (Florida, U.S.A.). Our intent was to determine the direct and indirect role of Apalachicola River flow in the maintenance of oyster production. Results of a monthly field sampling programme conducted on the oyster reefs in the Apalachicola system during 1985-1986 were used to develop statistical models relating several life-history characteristics of oysters to physical-chemical aspects of water quality. The same life-history characteristics were related statistically to output from a circulation model of Apalachicola Bay. Highest oyster densities and overall bar growth were found in the vicinity of the confluence of high salinity water moving westwards from St George Sound and river-dominated (low salinity) water moving south and eastwards from East Bay. With the exception of models for oyster mortality, the predictive capability of results from the parallel modelling efforts was low. A time-averaged model was developed for oyster mortality during the summer of 1985 by running a regression analysis with averaged predictors derived from the hydrodynamic model and observed (experimental) mortality rates throughout the estuary. A geographic information system was then used to depict the results spatially and to compare the extent of expected mortality in 1985 and 1986. High salinity, relatively low-velocity current patterns, and the proximity of a given oyster bar to entry points of saline Gulf water into the bay were important factors that contribute to increased oyster mortality. Mortality was a major determinant of oyster production in the Apalachicola Estuary with predation as a significant aspect of such mortality. By influencing salinity levels and current patterns throughout the bay, the Apalachicola River was important in controlling such mortality. Oyster production rates in the Apalachicola system depend on a combination of variables that are directly and indirectly associated with freshwater input as modified by wind, tidal factors, and the physiography of the bay. River flow reduction, whether through naturally occurring droughts, through increased upstream anthropogenous (consumptive) water use, or a combination of the two, could have serious adverse consequences for oyster populations. By coupling hydrodynamic modelling with descriptive and experimental biological data, we were able to determine the effects of potential freshwater diversions on oyster production in Apalachicola Bay.

  18. Sexual Reproduction in a Simple Growth Population Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemos, Carlos Gentil Oro; Santos, Marcio

    2012-05-01

    One of the most important characteristics in the survival of a species is related to the kind of reproduction responsible for the offspring generation. However, only in the last years the role played by sexual reproduction has been investigated. Then, for a better understanding of this kind of process we introduce, in this work, a surface reaction model that describes the role of the sexual reproduction. In our model two different elements of the species, representing male and female, can interact to reproduce a new element. The sex of this new element is chosen with a given probability and in order to take into account the mortality rate we introduce another kind of individual. The value of the spatial density of this element remains constant during the time evolution of the system. The model is studied using Monte Carlo simulations and mean field approximation. Depending on the values of the control parameters of the model, the system can attain two stationary states: In one of them the population survives and in the other it can be extinguished. Besides, accordingly to our results, the phase diagram of the model shows a discontinuous transition between these two states.

  19. Skeeter Buster: A Stochastic, Spatially Explicit Modeling Tool for Studying Aedes aegypti Population Replacement and Population Suppression Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Puente, Molly E.; Focks, Dana A.; Scott, Thomas W.; Lloyd, Alun L.; Gould, Fred

    2009-01-01

    Background Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The only prevention measure currently available is the control of its vectors, primarily Aedes aegypti. Recent advances in genetic engineering have opened the possibility for a new range of control strategies based on genetically modified mosquitoes. Assessing the potential efficacy of genetic (and conventional) strategies requires the availability of modeling tools that accurately describe the dynamics and genetics of Ae. aegypti populations. Methodology/Principal findings We describe in this paper a new modeling tool of Ae. aegypti population dynamics and genetics named Skeeter Buster. This model operates at the scale of individual water-filled containers for immature stages and individual properties (houses) for adults. The biology of cohorts of mosquitoes is modeled based on the algorithms used in the non-spatial Container Inhabiting Mosquitoes Simulation Model (CIMSiM). Additional features incorporated into Skeeter Buster include stochasticity, spatial structure and detailed population genetics. We observe that the stochastic modeling of individual containers in Skeeter Buster is associated with a strongly reduced temporal variation in stage-specific population densities. We show that heterogeneity in container composition of individual properties has a major impact on spatial heterogeneity in population density between properties. We detail how adult dispersal reduces this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, we present the predicted genetic structure of the population by calculating FST values and isolation by distance patterns, and examine the effects of adult dispersal and container movement between properties. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that the incorporated stochasticity and level of spatial detail have major impacts on the simulated population dynamics, which could potentially impact predictions in terms of control measures. The capacity to describe population genetics confers the ability to model the outcome of genetic control methods. Skeeter Buster is therefore an important tool to model Ae. aegypti populations and the outcome of vector control measures. PMID:19721700

  20. Zooplankton chitobiase activity as an endpoint of pharmaceutical effect.

    PubMed

    Richards, S M; Kelly, S E; Hanson, M L

    2008-05-01

    Numerous human and veterinary pharmaceuticals are constantly entering surface waters, despite little understanding of their potential impacts on aquatic ecosystems. To address this concern, an attempt to create a simple, reproducible, inexpensive, and sublethal toxicity bioassay for freshwater zooplankton was initiated. The approach was centered on characterizing the response of a zooplankton enzyme, chitobiase, to the presence of a toxicant. The aim of the present research was to develop a reproducible laboratory-based assay for Daphnia magna chitobiase activity and to screen four commonly prescribed pharmaceuticals using that assay. The four pharmaceuticals tested for potential effects on D. magna chitobiase activity were atorvastatin, lovastatin, fluoxetine, and sertraline. We were able to detect exposure-associated differences in chitobiase activity at concentrations of 0.1 mug/L fluoxetine after 24 and 72 hours of exposure. Differences were also detected for the other compounds. The response of chitobiase was found to be promising as an assay to measure sublethal effects in D. magna and perhaps other zooplankton species. PMID:17972005

  1. Increased zooplankton PAH concentrations across hydrographic fronts in the East China Sea.

    PubMed

    Hung, Chin-Chang; Ko, Fung-Chi; Gong, Gwo-Ching; Chen, Kuo-Shu; Wu, Jian-Ming; Chiang, Hsin-Lun; Peng, Sen-Chueh; Santschi, Peter H

    2014-06-15

    The Changjiang has transported large quantities of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to the East China Sea (ECS), but information of these pollutants in zooplankton is limited. To understand PAHs pollution in zooplankton in the ECS, total concentrations of PAHs in zooplankton from surface waters were measured. Values of PAHs ranged from 2 to 3500 ng m(-3) in the ECS, with highest PAHs levels located at the salinity front between the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW) and the mid-shelf waters. In contrast, concentrations of zooplankton PAHs in the mid-shelf and outer-shelf waters were significantly lower (2-23 ng m(-3)) than those in the CDW. These results demonstrate that PAHs are conspicuously accumulated in zooplankton at the salinity front between the CDW and the mid-shelf waters. These higher levels of PAHs in zooplankton at the salinity front may be further biomagnified in marine organisms of higher trophic levels through their feeding activities. PMID:24775063

  2. Zooplankton distribution as related to summer hydrographic conditions in Onslow Bay, North Carolina

    SciTech Connect

    Paffenhoefer, G.A.

    1980-01-01

    Zooplankton concentration and composition was related to hydrographic parameters in Onslow Bay, NC. During summer the hydrography of Onslow Bay is often characterized by the presence of nutrient-rich Gulf Stream waters. These originate from greater depths of the Gulf Stream, intrude at subsurface depths, frequently strand in the Bay and have high concentrations of particulate matter and chlorophyll a. Since such water masses can maintain their integrity for up to one month, temporal changes in phyto- and zooplankton communities may be followed. This paper describes the concentration, composition and distribution of abundant zooplankton taxa from summer 1976. Zooplankton distribution was affected by hydrography. Zooplankton biomass and composition indicate relatively high production of and low predation rates on zooplankton in intruded waters.

  3. Zooplankton distribution as related to summer hydrographic conditions in Onslow Bay, North Carolina

    SciTech Connect

    Paffenhoefer, G.A.

    1980-01-01

    Zooplankton concentration and composition was related to hydrographic parameters in Onslow Bay, NC. During summer the hydrography of Onslow Bay is often characterized by the presence of nutrient-rich Gulf Stream waters. These originate from greater depths of the Gulf Stream, intrude at subsurface depths, frequently strand in the Bay and have high concentrations of particulate matter and chlorophyll a. Since such water masses can maintain their integrity for up to one month, temporal changes in phyto- and zooplankton communities may be followed. Researchers describe the concentration, composition and distribution of abundant zooplankton taxa from summer 1976. Zooplankton distribution was affected by hydrography as, for example, Oncaeidae and Corycaeidae were significantly more abundant in intrusions than in the upper mixed layer. Zooplankton biomass and composition indicate relatively high production of and low predation rates on zooplankton in intruded waters.

  4. Zooplankton distribution as related to summer hydrographic conditions in Onslow Bay, North Carolina

    SciTech Connect

    Paffenhoefer, G.A.

    1980-01-01

    Zooplankton concentration and composition were related to hydrographic parameters in Onslow Bay, NC. During summer the hydrography of Onslow Bay is often characterized by the presence of nutrient-rich Gulf Stream waters. These originate from greater depths of the Gulf Stream, intrude at subsurface depths, frequently strand in the Bay and have high concentrations of particulate matter and chlorophyll a. Since such water masses can maintain their integrity for up to one month, temporal changes in phyto- and zooplankton communities may be followed. Researchers describe the concentration, composition and distribution of abundant zooplankton taxa from summer 1976. Zooplankton distribution was affected by hydrography as, for example, Oncaeidae and Corycaeidae were significantly more abundant in intrusions than in the upper mixed layer. Zooplankton biomass and composition indicate relatively high production of and low predation rates on zooplankton in intruded waters.

  5. Biomass of zooplankton estimated by acoustical sensors in the Arabian sea. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Holliday, D.V.

    1996-11-22

    The long term goal of our overall research program is the development of data-based models to predict ecological relationships of zooplankton, phytoplankton and the physical environment in the sea. The overall objective of the work carried out within the scope of this particular contract was to acoustically measure the dynamics of zooplankton and micronekton in the northern Arabian Sea during several seasons. The scientific focus was to examine the impact, if any, of the two annual monsoons that are thought to drive the ecosystem response in the area. This particular project involved the design and construction of two sensors which were then deployed in the Arabian Sea by several of our co-PIVs in the ONR ARI on Forced Upper Ocean Dynamics during the time period in which the JGOFS program also focused their efforts on the northern Arabian Sea. This contract involved only the development, calibration and maintenance of the instrumentation. The data processing, other than that which has been necessary for the purposes of quality assurance, was not induded in our original proposal.

  6. Chemical Response of the Toxic Dinoflagellate Karenia mikimotoi Against Grazing by Three Species of Zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Dang, Lin-Xi; Li, Yue; Liu, Fei; Zhang, Yong; Yang, Wei-Dong; Li, Hong-Ye; Liu, Jie-Sheng

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the toxicity of Karenia mikimotoi toward three model grazers, the cladoceran Moina mongolica, the copepod Pseudodiaptomus annandalei, and the crustacean Artemia salina, and explored its chemical response upon zooplankton grazing. An induction experiment, where K. mikimotoi was exposed to grazers or waterborne cues from the mixed cultures revealed that K. mikimotoi might be toxic or nutritionally inadequate toward the three grazers. In general, direct exposure to the three grazers induced the production of hemolytic toxins and the synthesis of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA). Both EPA and the hemolytic toxins from K. mikimotoi decreased the survival rate of the three grazers. In addition, the survival rates of M. mongolica, P. annandalei, and A. salina in the presence of induced K. mikimotoi that had previously been exposed to a certain grazer were lower than their counterparts caused by fresh K. mikimotoi, suggesting that exposure to some grazers might increase the toxicity of K. mikimotoi. The chemical response and associated increased resistance to further grazing suggested that K. mikimotoi could produce deterrents to protect against grazing by zooplankton and that the substances responsible might be hemolytic toxins and EPA. PMID:25523905

  7. Nuisance Source Population Modeling for Radiation Detection System Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Sokkappa, P; Lange, D; Nelson, K; Wheeler, R

    2009-10-05

    A major challenge facing the prospective deployment of radiation detection systems for homeland security applications is the discrimination of radiological or nuclear 'threat sources' from radioactive, but benign, 'nuisance sources'. Common examples of such nuisance sources include naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), medical patients who have received radioactive drugs for either diagnostics or treatment, and industrial sources. A sensitive detector that cannot distinguish between 'threat' and 'benign' classes will generate false positives which, if sufficiently frequent, will preclude it from being operationally deployed. In this report, we describe a first-principles physics-based modeling approach that is used to approximate the physical properties and corresponding gamma ray spectral signatures of real nuisance sources. Specific models are proposed for the three nuisance source classes - NORM, medical and industrial. The models can be validated against measured data - that is, energy spectra generated with the model can be compared to actual nuisance source data. We show by example how this is done for NORM and medical sources, using data sets obtained from spectroscopic detector deployments for cargo container screening and urban area traffic screening, respectively. In addition to capturing the range of radioactive signatures of individual nuisance sources, a nuisance source population model must generate sources with a frequency of occurrence consistent with that found in actual movement of goods and people. Measured radiation detection data can indicate these frequencies, but, at present, such data are available only for a very limited set of locations and time periods. In this report, we make more general estimates of frequencies for NORM and medical sources using a range of data sources such as shipping manifests and medical treatment statistics. We also identify potential data sources for industrial source frequencies, but leave the task of estimating these frequencies for future work. Modeling of nuisance source populations is only useful if it helps in understanding detector system performance in real operational environments. Examples of previous studies in which nuisance source models played a key role are briefly discussed. These include screening of in-bound urban traffic and monitoring of shipping containers in transit to U.S. ports.

  8. Population effects of increased climate variation.

    PubMed

    Drake, John M

    2005-09-01

    Global circulation models predict and numerous observations confirm that anthropogenic climate change has altered high-frequency climate variability. However, it is not yet well understood how changing patterns of environmental variation will affect wildlife population dynamics and other ecological processes. Theory predicts that a population's long-run growth rate is diminished and the chance of population extinction is increased as environmental variation increases. This results from the fact that population growth is a multiplicative process and that long-run population growth rate is the geometric mean of growth rates over time, which is always less than the arithmetic mean. However, when population growth rates for unstructured populations are related nonlinearly to environmental drivers, increasing environmental variation can increase a population's long-run growth rate. This suggests that patterns of environmental variation associated with different aspects of climate change may affect population dynamics in different ways. Specifically, increasing variation in rainfall might result in diminished long-run growth rates for many animal species while increasing variation in temperature might result in increased long-run growth rates. While the effect of rainfall is theoretically well understood and supported by data, the hypothesized effect of temperature is not. Here, I analyse two datasets to study the effect of fluctuating temperatures on growth rates of zooplankton. Results are consistent with the prediction that fluctuating temperatures should increase long-run growth rates and the frequency of extreme demographic events. PMID:16096095

  9. Three-dimensional acoustic visualization of zooplankton patchiness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greene, Charles H.; Wiebe, Peter H.; Pelkie, Chris; Benfield, Mark C.; Popp, Jacqueline M.

    Acoustic data were collected and visualized to characterize the 3-dimensional patchiness of zooplankton at a thermally stratified site on Georges Bank. The work was carried out as part of a field study conducted to examine the effects of springtime water-column stratification on the distributions of zooplankton and larval fish on the Bank. The acoustic data were acquired as the ship steamed a survey grid relative to the track of a surface drifter with a subsurface drogue. Although quite irregular in geographical coordinate space, the ship's track relative to the moving water closely matched the intended grid pattern once the drifter's movement in the tidal flow was taken into account. After changing coordinate systems to compensate for tidal advection, the acoustic data set was transformed from its curtain-like distribution in 3-dimensional space to a volumetric distribution. Two-dimensional point kriging was performed on the irregularly spaced data from each 2-m-thick depth stratum to produce a series of 2-dimensional, regularly spaced data grids. These data grids were then stacked to construct the 3-dimensional data grid required for volumetric visualization. A similar procedure was followed with the error variance values produced at each grid point through kriging to construct a 3-dimensional, volumetric distribution of the error variance. To examine zooplankton patchiness within the surveyed volume of water, isosurfaces corresponding to specific levels of acoustic backscatter were highlighted in the visualization. The 3-dimensional distribution of error variance was used to control the opacity of the isosurfaces to provide an objective, visual approach for displaying the statistical confidence one can have in the patches detected. In this survey, the ship steamed directly over a large, southwest- to northeast-oriented patch of zooplankton on at least three different passes. It also steamed over several smaller patches. The vertically compressed nature of the patches and their high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the horizontal plane are characteristic of the zooplankton distributions found in the deeper, seasonally stratified portions of Georges Bank.

  10. Selenium in San Francisco Bay zooplankton: Potential effects of hydrodynamics and food web interactions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Purkerson, D.G.; Doblin, M.A.; Bollens, S.M.; Luoma, S.N.; Cutter, G.A.

    2003-01-01

    The potential toxicity of elevated selenium (Se) concentrations in aquatic ecosystems has stimulated efforts to measure Se concentrations in benthos, nekton, and waterfowl in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay). In September 1998, we initiated a 14 mo field study to determine the concentration of Se in SF Bay zooplankton, which play a major role in the Bay food web, but which have not previously been studied with respect to Se. Monthly vertical plankton tows were collected at several stations throughout SF Bay, and zooplankton were separated into two operationally defined size classes for Se analyses: 73-2,000 ??m, and ???2,000 ??m. Selenium values ranged 1.02-6.07 ??g Se g-1 dry weight. No spatial differences in zooplankton Se concentrations were found. However, there were inter- and intra-annual differences. Zooplankton Se concentrations were enriched in the North Bay in Fall 1999 when compared to other seasons and locations within and outside SF Bay. The abundance and biovolume of the zooplankton community varied spatially between stations, but not seasonally within each station. Smaller herbivorous-omnivorous zooplankton had higher Se concentrations than larger omnivorous-carnivorous zooplankton. Selenium concentrations in zooplankton were negatively correlated with the proportion of total copepod biovolume comprising the large carnivorous copepod Tortanus dextrilobatus, but positively correlated with the proportion of copepod biovolume comprising smaller copepods of the family Oithonidae, suggesting an important role of trophic level and size in regulating zooplankton Se concentrations.

  11. Diel vertical migration: Ecological controls and impacts on the biological pump in a one-dimensional ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchi, Daniele; Stock, Charles; Galbraith, Eric D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2013-04-01

    vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton and micronekton is widespread in the ocean and forms a fundamental component of the biological pump, but is generally overlooked in global models of the Earth system. We develop a parameterization of DVM in the ocean and integrate it with a size-structured NPZD model. We assess the model's ability to recreate ecosystem and DVM patterns at three well-observed Pacific sites, ALOHA, K2, and EQPAC, and use it to estimate the impact of DVM on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical dynamics. Our model includes the following: (1) a representation of migration dynamics in response to food availability and light intensity; (2) a representation of the digestive and metabolic processes that decouple zooplankton feeding from excretion, egestion, and respiration; and (3) a light-dependent parameterization of visual predation on zooplankton. The model captures the first-order patterns in plankton biomass and productivity across the biomes, including the biomass of migrating organisms. We estimate that realistic migratory populations sustain active fluxes to the mesopelagic zone equivalent to between 15% and 40% of the particle export and contribute up to half of the total respiration within the layers affected by migration. The localized active transport has important consequences for the cycling of oxygen, nutrients, and carbon. We highlight the importance of decoupling zooplankton feeding and respiration and excretion with depth for capturing the impact of migration on the redistribution of carbon and nutrients in the upper ocean.

  12. Toward population management in an integrated care model.

    PubMed

    Maddux, Franklin W; McMurray, Stephen; Nissenson, Allen R

    2013-04-01

    Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010, accountable care organizations (ACOs) will be the primary mechanism for achieving the dual goals of high-quality patient care at managed per capita costs. To achieve these goals in the newly emerging health care environment, the nephrology community must plan for and direct integrated delivery and coordination of renal care, focusing on population management. Even though the ESRD patient population is a complex group with comorbid conditions that may confound integration of care, the nephrology community has unique experience providing integrated care through ACO-like programs. Specifically, the recent ESRD Management Demonstration Project sponsored by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the current ESRD Prospective Payment System with it Quality Incentive Program have demonstrated that integrated delivery of renal care can be accomplished in a manner that provides improved clinical outcomes with some financial margin of savings. Moving forward, integrated renal care will probably be linked to provider performance and quality outcomes measures, and clinical integration initiatives will share several common elements, namely performance-based payment models, coordination of communication via health care information technology, and development of best practices for care coordination and resource utilization. Integration initiatives must be designed to be measured and evaluated, and, consistent with principles of continuous quality improvement, each initiative will provide for iterative improvements of the initiative. PMID:23539229

  13. Explaining the Linguistic Diversity of Sahul Using Population Models

    PubMed Central

    Reesink, Ger; Singer, Ruth; Dunn, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The region of the ancient Sahul continent (present day Australia and New Guinea, and surrounding islands) is home to extreme linguistic diversity. Even apart from the huge Austronesian language family, which spread into the area after the breakup of the Sahul continent in the Holocene, there are hundreds of languages from many apparently unrelated families. On each of the subcontinents, the generally accepted classification recognizes one large, widespread family and a number of unrelatable smaller families. If these language families are related to each other, it is at a depth which is inaccessible to standard linguistic methods. We have inferred the history of structural characteristics of these languages under an admixture model, using a Bayesian algorithm originally developed to discover populations on the basis of recombining genetic markers. This analysis identifies 10 ancestral language populations, some of which can be identified with clearly defined phylogenetic groups. The results also show traces of early dispersals, including hints at ancient connections between Australian languages and some Papuan groups (long hypothesized, never before demonstrated). Systematic language contact effects between members of big phylogenetic groups are also detected, which can in some cases be identified with a diffusional or substrate signal. Most interestingly, however, there remains striking evidence of a phylogenetic signal, with many languages showing negligible amounts of admixture. PMID:19918360

  14. A dynamic urban air pollution population exposure assessment study using model and population density data derived by mobile phone traffic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gariazzo, Claudio; Pelliccioni, Armando; Bolignano, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    A dynamic city-wide air pollution exposure assessment study has been carried out for the urban population of Rome, Italy, by using time resolved population distribution maps, derived by mobile phone traffic data, and modelled air pollutants (NO2, O3 and PM2.5) concentrations obtained by an integrated air dispersion modelling system. More than a million of persons were tracked during two months (March and April 2015) for their position within the city and its surroundings areas, with a time resolution of 15 min and mapped over an irregular grid system with a minimum resolution of 0.26 × 0.34 Km2. In addition, demographics information (as gender and age ranges) were available in a separated dataset not connected with the total population one. Such BigData were matched in time and space with air pollution model results and then used to produce hourly and daily resolved cumulative population exposures during the studied period. A significant mobility of population was identified with higher population densities in downtown areas during daytime increasing of up to 1000 people/Km2 with respect to nigh-time one, likely produced by commuters, tourists and working age population. Strong variability (up to ±50% for NO2) of population exposures were detected as an effect of both mobility and time/spatial changing in pollutants concentrations. A comparison with the correspondent stationary approach based on National Census data, allows detecting the inability of latter in estimating the actual variability of population exposure. Significant underestimations of the amount of population exposed to daily PM2.5 WHO guideline was identified for the Census approach. Very small differences (up to a few μg/m3) on exposure were detected for gender and age ranges population classes.

  15. Stable carbon isotopes of zooplankton lipid components as a tool to differentiate between pelagic and ice algae as a food source for zooplankton in the Arctic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bendle, J. A.; Moossen, H.; Jamieson, R.; Wold, A.; Falk-Peterson, S.

    2009-12-01

    Every summer in the Arctic, the ice cover melts and releases sea-ice algae into the surrounding waters. How important are these algae, consisting mostly of diatoms, as a major food source for zooplankton and higher trophic levels? The answer to this question is timely, given predictions for the loss of summer sea ice cover this century. We are investigating the use of compound specific carbon isotopes as a tool to differentiate between lipids found in zooplankton which feed on diatoms living in the open ocean and zooplankton which feed on diatoms derived from the ice. To this effect we analyse the carbon isotopic signature of the major fatty acids and alcohols and that of the major sterols collected during the Arctic ICE CHASER expedition aboard the RRV James Clark Ross in 2008. Twenty three zooplankton samples comprised of 11 different species were collected in four different depth intervals at three different sites around Svalbard. The sites had variable ice cover, from open water to solid ice. We analysed the lipid composition of the zooplankton samples with special emphasis on the fatty acids and fatty alcohols bound as esters. Esters are produced by zooplankton to function as an energy reservoir. Initial results such as the occurrence of Brassicasterol, 24 methylencholest 5 en-3?-ol and Desmosterol, high amounts of the C20:5?3 fatty acid and high C16:1?7/C16:0-fatty acid ratios suggest that diatoms are an important part of the zooplankton diet.

  16. Model for a population-based microbial oscillator.

    PubMed

    Goi-Moreno, Angel; Amos, Martyn

    2011-09-01

    Genetic oscillators are a major theme of interest in the emerging field of synthetic biology. Until recently, most work has been carried out using intra-cellular oscillators, but this approach restricts the broader applicability of such systems. Motivated by a desire to develop large-scale, spatially distributed cell-based computational systems, we present an initial design for a population-level oscillator which uses three different bacterial strains. Our system is based on the client-server model familiar to computer science, and uses quorum sensing for communication between nodes. Importantly, it is robust to perturbation and noise. We present the results of extensive in silico simulation tests, which confirm the feasibility of our design. PMID:21679747

  17. A MULTI-PATCH MALARIA MODEL WITH LOGISTIC GROWTH POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Gao, Daozhou; Ruan, Shigui

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a multi-patch model to study the effects of population dispersal on the spatial spread of malaria between patches. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is derived and it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text] and unstable if [Formula: see text]. Bounds on the disease-free equilibrium and [Formula: see text] are given. A sufficient condition for the existence of an endemic equilibrium when [Formula: see text] is obtained. For the two-patch submodel, the dependence of [Formula: see text] on the movement of exposed, infectious, and recovered humans between the two patches is investigated. Numerical simulations indicate that travel can help the disease to become endemic in both patches, even though the disease dies out in each isolated patch. However, if travel rates are continuously increased, the disease may die out again in both patches. PMID:23723531

  18. Population variability in the Active Brownian Particle model of Daphnia motions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moss, Frank; Erdmann, Udo; Schimansky-Geier, Lutz; Ordmann, Anke

    2004-03-01

    Three characteristic motions of foraging biological agents are predicted by the Active Brownian Particle model [1]. These are random motions about the minimum of a central attracting potential, a bifurcation to bidirectional circular motions about the axis of symmetry of the potential, and a transition to vortex motion. All three can be observed in swarms of the zooplankton Daphnia swimming in light fields. Here we focus on the bidirectional circular motions in 2-D space [1]. The mean radii, as well as other characteristics of the paths, are determined by three strength parameters appropriate to individual Daphnia: energy uptake from the medium, metabolistic drain, and dissipation due to movement. It is shown that individual variability can be represented by distributions of these strength parameters. Conditions for which the experimental data are best described by the model are discussed. [1] U. Erdmann, W. Ebeling and V. S. Anishchenko, Excitation of rotational modes in two-dimensional systems of driven Brownian particles. Phys. Rev. E 65, 061106 (2002)

  19. MULTISCALE MODELS OF TAXIS-DRIVEN PATTERNING IN BACTERIAL POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Xue, Chuan; Othmer, Hans G

    2009-01-01

    Spatially-distributed populations of various types of bacteria often display intricate spatial patterns that are thought to result from the cellular response to gradients of nutrients or other attractants. In the past decade a great deal has been learned about signal transduction, metabolism and movement in E. coli and other bacteria, but translating the individual-level behavior into population-level dynamics is still a challenging problem. However, this is a necessary step because it is computationally impractical to use a strictly cell-based model to understand patterning in growing populations, since the total number of cells may reach 10(12) - 10(14) in some experiments. In the past phenomenological equations such as the Patlak-Keller-Segel equations have been used in modeling the cell movement that is involved in the formation of such patterns, but the question remains as to how the microscopic behavior can be correctly described by a macroscopic equation. Significant progress has been made for bacterial species that employ a "run-and-tumble" strategy of movement, in that macroscopic equations based on simplified schemes for signal transduction and turning behavior have been derived [14, 15]. Here we extend previous work in a number of directions: (i) we allow for time-dependent signals, which extends the applicability of the equations to natural environments, (ii) we use a more general turning rate function that better describes the biological behavior, and (iii) we incorporate the effect of hydrodynamic forces that arise when cells swim in close proximity to a surface. We also develop a new approach to solving the moment equations derived from the transport equation that does not involve closure assumptions. Numerical examples show that the solution of the lowest-order macroscopic equation agrees well with the solution obtained from a Monte Carlo simulation of cell movement under a variety of temporal protocols for the signal. We also apply the method to derive equations of chemotactic movement that are governed by multiple chemotactic signals. PMID:19784399

  20. Biomass of zooplankton in the eastern Arctic Ocean - A base line study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosobokova, Ksenia; Hirche, Hans-Jrgen

    2009-09-01

    Only a few historical assessments of the zooplankton biomass in the Arctic Ocean exist are difficult to compare due to methodological differences including incomplete sampling of the water column. We present assessments of the zooplankton biomass for 66 locations scattered over the Eurasian and Makarov Basins of the Arctic Ocean and analyze regional variability and factors affecting the biomass distribution. The study is based on material from several summer expeditions of RV Polarstern (1993-1998) that was collected and processed using consistent methods, i.e. stratified sampling of the entire water column from the bottom to the surface with very similar gear and standardized calculation of biomass. Total zooplankton biomass varied strongly from 1.9 to 23.9 g DW m -2 dry mass. Regional variability was mainly related to the circulation pattern, but local food availability was also important. A belt of elevated biomass along the Eurasian continental margin was associated with the advection of Atlantic pelagic populations within the Arctic Ocean Boundary Current along the Siberian shelves and returning branches along mid-ocean ridges. Biomass was highest in the core of the Atlantic inflow and remained rather stable along the continental margins, but species composition changed, pointing to different adaptation levels to local conditions by advected species. Biomass gradually decreased towards the shelves and basins and was lowest in the centers of the basins north of 85N. In the slope region, three Calanus species ( C. hyperboreus, C. glacialis, C. finmarchicus) and Metridia longa contributed most to the biomass, chaetognaths ( Eukrohnia hamata) were also important. In the basins, C. hyperboreus was dominant, copepods made up to 97% of total biomass. Vertical distribution was similar at all stations with biomass maxima in the upper 50 m layer except for stations near Fram Strait and northern Kara Sea, the gateways of Atlantic water to the Arctic Ocean, where maxima where between 25 and 100 m. As there was only very little interannual variability of temperature and current velocity in the regions of the Atlantic inflow we suggest that the majority of our samples, collected in 1993 and 1995, represents the phase of the 1990s warm event in the Nordic Seas.

  1. Basic Concepts in Population Modeling, Simulation, and Model-Based Drug Development

    PubMed Central

    Mould, D R; Upton, R N

    2012-01-01

    Modeling is an important tool in drug development; population modeling is a complex process requiring robust underlying procedures for ensuring clean data, appropriate computing platforms, adequate resources, and effective communication. Although requiring an investment in resources, it can save time and money by providing a platform for integrating all information gathered on new therapeutic agents. This article provides a brief overview of aspects of modeling and simulation as applied to many areas in drug development. PMID:23835886

  2. Effects of stochastic population fluctuations in two models of biological macroevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu; Rikvold, Per Arne

    Two mathematical models of macroevolution are studied. These models have population dynamics at the species level, and mutations and extinction of species are also included. The population dynamics are updated by difference equations with stochastic noise terms that characterize population fluctuations. The effects of the stochastic population fluctuations on diversity and total population sizes on evolutionary time scales are studied. In one model, species can make either predator-prey, mutualistic, or competitive interactions, while the other model allows only predator-prey interactions. When the noise in the population dynamics is strong enough, both models show intermittent behavior and their power spectral densities show approximate 1/f fluctuations. In the noiseless limit, the two models have different power spectral densities. For the predator-prey model, 1/f2 fluctuations appears, indicating random-walk like behavior, while the other model still shows 1/f noise. These results indicate that stochastic population fluctuations may significantly affect long-time evolutionary dynamics.

  3. Modelling targets for anticancer drug control optimization in physiologically structured cell population models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billy, Frédérique; Clairambault, Jean; Fercoq, Olivier; Lorenzi, Tommaso; Lorz, Alexander; Perthame, Benoît

    2012-09-01

    The main two pitfalls of therapeutics in clinical oncology, that limit increasing drug doses, are unwanted toxic side effects on healthy cell populations and occurrence of resistance to drugs in cancer cell populations. Depending on the constraint considered in the control problem at stake, toxicity or drug resistance, we present two different ways to model the evolution of proliferating cell populations, healthy and cancer, under the control of anti-cancer drugs. In the first case, we use a McKendrick age-structured model of the cell cycle, whereas in the second case, we use a model of evolutionary dynamics, physiologically structured according to a continuous phenotype standing for drug resistance. In both cases, we mention how drug targets may be chosen so as to accurately represent the effects of cytotoxic and of cytostatic drugs, separately, and how one may consider the problem of optimisation of combined therapies.

  4. A Population Genetics Model of Marker-Assisted Selection

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Z. W.; Thompson, R.; Woolliams, J. A.

    1997-01-01

    A deterministic two-loci model was developed to predict genetic response to marker-assisted selection (MAS) in one generation and in multiple generations. Formulas were derived to relate linkage disequilibrium in a population to the proportion of additive genetic variance used by MAS, and in turn to an extra improvement in genetic response over phenotypic selection. Predictions of the response were compared to those predicted by using an infinite-loci model and the factors affecting efficiency of MAS were examined. Theoretical analyses of the present study revealed the nonlinearity between the selection intensity and genetic response in MAS. In addition to the heritability of the trait and the proportion of the marker-associated genetic variance, the frequencies of the selectively favorable alleles at the two loci, one marker and one quantitative trait locus, were found to play an important role in determining both the short- and long-term efficiencies of MAS. The evolution of linkage disequilibrium and thus the genetic response over several generations were predicted theoretically and examined by simulation. MAS dissipated the disequilibrium more quickly than drift alone. In some cases studied, the rate of dissipation was as large as that to be expected in the circumstance where the true recombination fraction was increased by three times and selection was absent. PMID:9215918

  5. Discrete bivariate population balance modelling of heteroaggregation processes.

    PubMed

    Rolli, Sascha; Briesen, Heiko; Sundmacher, Kai

    2009-08-15

    Heteroaggregation in binary particle mixtures was simulated with a discrete population balance model in terms of two internal coordinates describing the particle properties. The considered particle species are of different size and zeta-potential. Property space is reduced with a semi-heuristic approach to enable an efficient solution. Aggregation rates are based on deterministic models for Brownian motion and stability, under consideration of DLVO interaction potentials. A charge-balance kernel is presented, relating the electrostatic surface potential to the property space by a simple charge balance. Parameter sensitivity with respect to the fractal dimension, aggregate size, hydrodynamic correction, ionic strength and absolute particle concentration was assessed. Results were compared to simulations with the literature kernel based on geometric coverage effects for clusters with heterogeneous surface properties. In both cases electrostatic phenomena, which dominate the aggregation process, show identical trends: impeded cluster-cluster aggregation at low particle mixing ratio (1:1), restabilisation at high mixing ratios (100:1) and formation of complex clusters for intermediate ratios (10:1). The particle mixing ratio controls the surface coverage extent of the larger particle species. Simulation results are compared to experimental flow cytometric data and show very satisfactory agreement. PMID:19423121

  6. Solar UVB-induced DNA damage and photoenzymatic DNA repair in antarctic zooplankton

    SciTech Connect

    Malloy, K.D.; Holman, M.A.; Mitchell, D.

    1997-02-18

    The detrimental effects of elevated intensities of mid-UV radiation (UVB), a result of stratospheric ozone depletion during the austral spring, on the primary producers of the Antarctic marine ecosystem have been well documented. Here we report that natural populations of Antarctic zooplankton also sustain significant DNA damage [measured as cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs)] during periods of increased UVB flux. This is the first direct evidence that increased solar UVB may result in damage to marine organisms other than primary producers in Antarctica. The extent of DNA damage in pelagic icefish eggs correlated with daily incident UVB irradiance, reflecting the difference between acquisition and repair of CPDs. Patterns of DNA damage in fish larvae did not correlated with daily UVB flux, possibly due to different depth distributions and/or different capacities for DNA repair. Clearance of CPDs by Antarctic fish and krill was mediated primarily by the photoenzymatic repair system. Although repair rates were large for all species evaluated, they were apparently inadequate to prevent the transient accumulation of substantial CPD burdens. The capacity for DNA repair in Antarctic organisms was highest in those species whose early life history stages occupy the water column during periods of ozone depletion (austral spring) and lowest in fish species whose eggs and larvae are abundant during winter. Although the potential reduction in fitness of Antarctic zooplankton resulting from DNA damage is unknown, we suggest that increased solar UV may reduce recruitment and adversely affect trophic transfer of productivity by affecting heterotrophic species as well as primary producers. 54 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Networks and Models with Heterogeneous Population Structure in Epidemiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kao, R. R.

    Heterogeneous population structure can have a profound effect on infectious disease dynamics, and is particularly important when investigating “tactical” disease control questions. At times, the nature of the network involved in the transmission of the pathogen (bacteria, virus, macro-parasite, etc.) appears to be clear; however, the nature of the network involved is dependent on the scale (e.g. within-host, between-host, or between-population), the nature of the contact, which ranges from the highly specific (e.g. sexual acts or needle sharing at the person-to-person level) to almost completely non-specific (e.g. aerosol transmission, often over long distances as can occur with the highly infectious livestock pathogen foot-and-mouth disease virus—FMDv—at the farm-to-farm level, e.g. Schley et al. in J. R. Soc. Interface 6:455-462, 2008), and the timescale of interest (e.g. at the scale of the individual, the typical infectious period of the host). Theoretical approaches to examining the implications of particular network structures on disease transmission have provided critical insight; however, a greater challenge is the integration of network approaches with data on real population structures. In this chapter, some concepts in disease modelling will be introduced, the relevance of selected network phenomena discussed, and then results from real data and their relationship to network analyses summarised. These include examinations of the patterns of air traffic and its relation to the spread of SARS in 2003 (Colizza et al. in BMC Med., 2007; Hufnagel et al. in Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101:15124-15129, 2004), the use of the extensively documented Great Britain livestock movements network (Green et al. in J. Theor. Biol. 239:289-297, 2008; Robinson et al. in J. R. Soc. Interface 4:669-674, 2007; Vernon and Keeling in Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, Biol. Sci. 276:469-476, 2009) and the growing interest in combining contact structure data with phylogenetics to identify real contact patterns as they directly relate to diseases of interest (Cottam et al. in PLoS Pathogens 4:1000050, 2007; Hughes et al. in PLoS Pathogens 5:1000590, 2009).

  8. EVALUATION OF THE EFFICACY OF EXTRAPOLATION POPULATION MODELING TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF AMERICAMYSIS BAHIA POPULATIONS IN THE LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    An age-classified projection matrix model has been developed to extrapolate the chronic (28-35d) demographic responses of Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia) to population-level response. This study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of this model for predicting t...

  9. Lipids of gelatinous Antarctic zooplankton: Cnidaria and Ctenophora.

    PubMed

    Nelson, M M; Phleger, C F; Mooney, B D; Nichols, P D

    2000-05-01

    Cnidaria (Calycopsis borchgrevinki, Diphyes antarctica, Stygiomedusa gigantea, Atolla wyvillei, Dimophyes arctica) and Ctenophora (Beroe cucumis, B. forskalii, Pleurobrachia pileus, Bolinopsis infundibulum) were collected near Elephant Island, South Shetland Islands, during January and February 1997 and 1998. Total lipid was low in all zooplankton (0.1-5 mg g wet mass) and included primarily polar lipids (59-96% of total lipid). Triacylglycerols were 0-26% of total lipids, and wax esters were 0-11% in all species. Cholesterol was the major sterol in all Cnidaria (50-63% of total sterols) whereas in most ctenophores it was lower at 26-45%. These cholesterol levels are consistent with a combined carnivorous and phytoplanktivorous diet in the ctenophores, with the carnivorous diet more dominant in the Cnidaria. Other sterols included primarily trans-dehydrocholesterol, desmosterol, 24-methylcholest-5,22E-dien-3beta-ol, 24-nordehydrocholesterol, and 24-methylenecholesterol. Total stanols were 0-6% in all zooplankton. Eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid were the major polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in all samples (7-25% of total fatty acids) except for A. wyvillei in which docosapentaenoic acid was 10% of total fatty acids. The PUFA 18:5n-3 was not detected in 1997 samples, but constituted 0.2-0.8% in most 1998 samples. Monounsaturated fatty acids included primarily 18:1n-9c, 16:1n-7c, and 18:1n-7c. The principal saturated fatty acids in all samples were 16:0, 18:0, and 14:0. These data are the first for many of these zooplankton species and the first sterol data for most species. The use of the signature lipid approach has enabled examination of aspects of trophodynamics not obtainable by conventional techniques. PMID:10907790

  10. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  11. Changing climate cues differentially alter zooplankton dormancy dynamics across latitudes.

    PubMed

    Jones, Natalie T; Gilbert, Benjamin

    2016-03-01

    In seasonal climates, dormancy is a common strategy that structures biodiversity and is necessary for the persistence of many species. Climate change will likely alter dormancy dynamics in zooplankton, the basis of aquatic food webs, by altering two important hatching cues: mean temperatures during the ice-free season, and mean day length when lakes become ice free. Theory suggests that these changes could alter diversity, hatchling abundances and phenology within lakes, and that these responses may diverge across latitudes due to differences in optimal hatching cues and strategies. To examine the role of temperature and day length on hatching dynamics, we collected sediment from 25 lakes across a 1800 km latitudinal gradient and exposed sediment samples to a factorial combination of two photoperiods (12 and 16 h) and two temperatures (8 and 12 °C) representative of historical southern (short photoperiod, warm) and northern (long photoperiod, cool) lake conditions. We tested whether sensitivity to these hatching cues varies by latitudinal origin and differs among taxa. Higher temperatures advanced phenology for all taxa, and these advances were greatest for cladocerans followed by copepods and rotifers. Although phenology differed among taxa, the effect of temperature did not vary with latitude. The latitudinal origin of the egg bank influenced egg abundance and hatchling abundance and diversity, with these latter effects varying with taxa, temperature and photoperiod. Copepod hatchling abundances peaked at mid-latitudes in the high temperature and long photoperiod treatments, whereas hatchling abundances of other zooplankton were greatest at low latitudes and high temperature. The overall diversity of crustacean zooplankton (copepods and cladocerans) also reflected distinct responses of each taxa to our treatments, with the greatest diversity occurring at mid-latitudes (~56 °N) in the shorter photoperiod treatment. Our results demonstrate that hatching cues differ for broad taxonomic groups that vary in developmental and life-history strategies. These differences are predicted to drive latitude-specific shifts in zooplankton emergence with climate change and could alter the base of aquatic food webs. PMID:26590065

  12. Cladoceran zooplankton abundance under clear and snow-covered ice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeBates, T.J.; Chipps, S.R.; Ward, M.C.; Werlin, K.B.; Lorenzen, P.B.

    2003-01-01

    We described the distribution of cladoceran zooplankton under the ice in a natural, glacial lake. Local light availability apparently altered the spatial distribution of cladocerans. Light levels measured under snow-covered areas (0.178 lux) were an order of magnitude less than those measured at the same depth under clear ice (1.750 lux). Cladoceran density under snow-covered areas was significantly higher (Bosmina spp.=3.34/L; Daphnia spp.=0.61/L) than cladoceran abundance under clear ice (Bosmina spp.=0.91/L; Daphnia spp.=0.19/L).

  13. CONSTANT, NOCTURNAL OR NO AERATION: EFFECTS ON WATER QUALITY AND ZOOPLANKTON IN HEAVILY FERTILIZED NURSERY PONDS.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sunshine bass fingerling production depends upon an initial high concentration of rotifers followed by high densities in crustacean zooplankton in culture ponds. Increased fertilization promotes increased amounts of zooplankton but often causes poor water quality which aeration may alleviate. The e...

  14. Assessment of Zooplankton Size Fractionation for Monitoring Fry and Fingerling Culture Ponds

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Methodology was formulated for use in the rapid assessment of zooplankton in channel catfish ponds. Understanding zooplankton prey size is useful for effective pond management. Size fractionation using differential sieve sizes was an effective means of separating size classes in live material, whe...

  15. Effect of Main-stem Dams on Zooplankton Communities of the Missouri River (USA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    We examined the distribution and abundance of zooplankton from 146 sites on the Missouri River and found large shifts in the dominance of major taxa between management zones of this regulated river. Crustacean zooplankton were dominant in the inter-reservoir zone of the river, an...

  16. SPATIAL PATTERNS IN ASSEMBLAGE STRUCTURES OF PELAGIC FORAGE FISH AND ZOOPLANKTON IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR

    EPA Science Inventory

    This manuscript reports on the spatial distribution of zooplankton and forage fish in western Lake Superior. Fish and zooplankton assemblages are shown to differ substantially in abundance and size structure both between the open lake and nearshore regions and between two differe...

  17. PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOOPLANKTON SEASONAL DYNAMICS IN A SUBTROPICAL ESTUARY: IMPORTANCE OF CYANOBACTERIA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Murrell, Michael C. and Emile M. Lores. 2004. Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Seasonal Dynamics in a Subtropical Estuary: Importance of Cyanobacteria. J. Plankton Res. 26(3):371-382. (ERL,GB 1190).

    A seasonal study of phytoplankton and zooplankton was conducted from 1999-20...

  18. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AT EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing, applying, and evaluating population-based exposure models to improve our understanding of the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants. Estimates of population variability are needed for E...

  19. Simulation model of Cryptomonas ovata population dynamics in southern Kootenay Lake, British Columbia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cloern, James E.

    1978-01-01

    The model simulates well the timing and magnitude of all observed population changes and, more importantly, it gives insight into the important mechanisms which regulate population density ofC. ovatain this natural system.

  20. Combined CFD/Population Balance Model for Gas Hydrate Particle Size Prediction in Turbulent Pipeline Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balakin, Boris V.; Hoffmann, Alex C.; Kosinski, Pawel; Istomin, Vladimir A.; Chuvilin, Evgeny M.

    2010-09-01

    A combined computational fluid dynamics/population balance model (CFD-PBM) is developed for gas hydrate particle size prediction in turbulent pipeline flow. The model is based on a one-moment population balance technique, which is coupled with flow field parameters computed using commercial CFD software. The model is calibrated with a five-moment, off-line population balance model and validated with experimental data produced in a low-pressure multiphase flow loop.

  1. Simple graph models of information spread in finite populations

    PubMed Central

    Voorhees, Burton; Ryder, Bergerud

    2015-01-01

    We consider several classes of simple graphs as potential models for information diffusion in a structured population. These include biases cycles, dual circular flows, partial bipartite graphs and what we call ‘single-link’ graphs. In addition to fixation probabilities, we study structure parameters for these graphs, including eigenvalues of the Laplacian, conductances, communicability and expected hitting times. In several cases, values of these parameters are related, most strongly so for partial bipartite graphs. A measure of directional bias in cycles and circular flows arises from the non-zero eigenvalues of the antisymmetric part of the Laplacian and another measure is found for cycles as the value of the transition probability for which hitting times going in either direction of the cycle are equal. A generalization of circular flow graphs is used to illustrate the possibility of tuning edge weights to match pre-specified values for graph parameters; in particular, we show that generalizations of circular flows can be tuned to have fixation probabilities equal to the Moran probability for a complete graph by tuning vertex temperature profiles. Finally, single-link graphs are introduced as an example of a graph involving a bottleneck in the connection between two components and these are compared to the partial bipartite graphs. PMID:26064661

  2. Statistical Mechanics of Population --- The Lattice Lotka-Volterra Model ---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuda, H.; Ogita, N.; Sasaki, A.; Sato, K.

    1992-12-01

    To derive the consequence of heritable traits of individual organisms upon the feature of their populations, the lattice Lotka-Volterra model is studied which is defined as a Markov process of the state of the lattice space. A lattice site is either vacant or occupied by an individual of a certain type or species. Transition rates of the process are given in terms of parameters representing the traits of an individual such as intrinsic birth and death and migration rate of each type. Density is a variable defined as a probability that a site is occupied by a certain type. Under a given state of a site the conditional probability of its nearest neighbor site being occupied by a certain type is termed environs density of the site. Mutual exclusion of individuals is already taken into account by the basic assumption of the lattice model. Other interaction between individuals can be taken into account by assuming that the actual birth and death and migration rates are dependent on the environs densities. Extending the notion of ordinary Malthusian parameters, we define Malthusians as dynamical variables specifying the time development of the densities. Conditions for the positive stationary densities and for the evolutional stability (ES) against the invasion of mutant types is given in terms of Malthusians. Using the pair approximation (PA), a simplest decoupling approximation to take account of spatial correlation, we obtain analytical results for stationary densities, and critical parameters for ES in the case of two types. Assuming that the death rate is dependent on the environs density, we derive conditions for the evolution of altruism. Comparing with computer simulation, we discuss the validity of PA and its improvement.

  3. [Effects of environmental factors on ? diversity of zooplankton community in thermal discharge seawaters near Guohua Power Plant in Xiangshan Bay, Zhejiang, China].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Yi-feng; Dai, Mei-xia; Zhou, Xiao-hong; Lin, Xia; Mao, Shuo-qian; Yan, Xiao-jun

    2015-08-01

    Zooplankton samples were seasonally collected at 10 stations in thermal discharge seawaters near Guohua Power Plant in Xiangshan Bay. The abundance data from these samples were pooled and further combined with field environmental factors, then generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) was used to explore the effects of environmental factors on ? diversity of zooplankton community. The results showed that altogether 95 species of zooplankton belonging to 14 taxa were found. In these taxa, small zooplankton with 62.6% of abundance was the main taxa, while copepods dominated in adult groups, which abundance accounted for 35.3%. According to Whittaker's definition and additive partition, a diversity accounted for 36.3% and ? diversity 63.7%. Environmental factors explained 43.8% of ? diversity, and geographical distance between sampling sites had no effect on ? diversity. However, there were still 19.9% of ? diversity remained to be explained. After GDM fitting, there were nine environmental variables affecting zooplankton ? diversity and explaining 68.8% of ? diversity. The variables contributing to ? diversity from high to low were seasonal water temperature, dissolved oxygen, seawater temperature increment, conductivity, suspended particulate matter, salinity, transparency, water depth and redox potential, respectively. Seasonal water temperature, dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature increment were the most important factors for driving ? diversity changes, and accounted for 23.9%, 13.7% and 9.7% of absolute contribution to the interpretable portion of the ? diversity, respectively. When seasonal water temperature, dissolved oxygen and seawater temperature increment were below 25 C, greater than 5 mg L(-1) and over 1 C, respectively, ? diversity rapidly increased with the increasing variable gradients. Furthermore, other predictors had little effect on ? diversity. PMID:26685620

  4. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

  5. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

    PubMed

    Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrln, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

    2013-10-01

    Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. PMID:23565966

  6. Modeling Grade IV Gas Emboli using a Limited Failure Population Model with Random Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Laura A.; Conkin, Johnny; Chhikara, Raj S.; Powell, Michael R.

    2002-01-01

    Venous gas emboli (VGE) (gas bubbles in venous blood) are associated with an increased risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in hypobaric environments. A high grade of VGE can be a precursor to serious DCS. In this paper, we model time to Grade IV VGE considering a subset of individuals assumed to be immune from experiencing VGE. Our data contain monitoring test results from subjects undergoing up to 13 denitrogenation test procedures prior to exposure to a hypobaric environment. The onset time of Grade IV VGE is recorded as contained within certain time intervals. We fit a parametric (lognormal) mixture survival model to the interval-and right-censored data to account for the possibility of a subset of "cured" individuals who are immune to the event. Our model contains random subject effects to account for correlations between repeated measurements on a single individual. Model assessments and cross-validation indicate that this limited failure population mixture model is an improvement over a model that does not account for the potential of a fraction of cured individuals. We also evaluated some alternative mixture models. Predictions from the best fitted mixture model indicate that the actual process is reasonably approximated by a limited failure population model.

  7. Zooplankton size selection relative to gill raker spacing in rainbow trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Budy, P.; Haddix, T.; Schneidervin, R.

    2005-01-01

    Rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss are one of the most widely stocked salmonids worldwide, often based on the assumption that they will effectively utilize abundant invertebrate food resources. We evaluated the potential for feeding morphology to affect prey selection by rainbow trout using a combination of laboratory feeding experiments and field observations in Flaming Gorge Reservoir, Utah-Wyoming. For rainbow trout collected from the reservoir, inter-gill raker spacing averaged 1.09 mm and there was low variation among fish overall (SD = 0.28). Ninety-seven percent of all zooplankton observed in the diets of rainbow trout collected in the reservoir were larger than the interraker spacing, while only 29% of the zooplankton found in the environment were larger than the interraker spacing. Over the size range of rainbow trout evaluated here (200-475 mm), interraker spacing increased moderately with increasing fish length; however, the size of zooplankton found in the diet did not increase with increasing fish length. In laboratory experiments, rainbow trout consumed the largest zooplankton available; the mean size of zooplankton observed in the diets was significantly larger than the mean size of zooplankton available. Electivity indices for both laboratory and field observations indicated strong selection for larger-sized zooplankton. The size threshold at which electivity switched from selection against smaller-sized zooplankton to selection for larger-sized zooplankton closely corresponded to the mean interraker spacing for both groups (???1-1.2 mm). The combination of results observed here indicates that rainbow trout morphology limits the retention of different-sized zooplankton prey and reinforces the importance of understanding how effectively rainbow trout can utilize the type and sizes of different prey available in a given system. These considerations may improve our ability to predict the potential for growth and survival of rainbow trout within and among different systems. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

  8. Reduced growth and survival of larval razorback sucker fed selenium-laden zooplankton

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamilton, S.J.; Buhl, K.J.; Bullard, F.A.; McDonald, S.F.

    2005-01-01

    Four groups of larval razorback sucker, an endangered fish, were exposed to selenium-laden zooplankton and survival, growth, and whole-body residues were measured. Studies were conducted with 5, 10, 24, and 28-day-old larvae fed zooplankton collected from six sites adjacent to the Green River, Utah. Water where zooplankton were collected had selenium concentrations ranging from <0.4 to 78 ??g/L, and concentrations in zooplankton ranged from 2.3 to 91 ??g/g dry weight. Static renewal tests were conducted for 20 to 25 days using reference water with selenium concentrations of <1.1 ??g/L. In all studies, 80-100% mortality occurred in 15-20 days. In the 28-day-old larvae, fish weight was significantly reduced 25% in larvae fed zooplankton containing 12 ??g/g selenium. Whole-body concentrations of selenium ranged from 3.7 to 14.3 ??g/g in fish fed zooplankton from the reference site (Sheppard Bottom pond 1) up to 94 ??g/g in fish fed zooplankton from North Roadside Pond. Limited information prior to the studies suggested that the Sheppard pond 1 site was relatively clean and suitable as a reference treatment; however, the nearly complete mortality of larvae and elevated concentrations of selenium in larvae and selenium and other elements in zooplankton indicated that this site was contaminated with selenium and other elements. Selenium concentrations in whole-body larvae and in zooplankton from all sites were close to or greater than toxic thresholds where adverse effects occur in fish. Delayed mortality occurred in larvae fed the two highest selenium concentrations in zooplankton and was thought due to an interaction with other elements. ?? 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Diel Vertical Dynamics of Gelatinous Zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora and Thaliacea) in a Subtropical Stratified Ecosystem (South Brazilian Bight)

    PubMed Central

    Nogueira Júnior, Miodeli; Brandini, Frederico Pereira; Codina, Juan Carlos Ugaz

    2015-01-01

    The diel vertical dynamics of gelatinous zooplankton in physically stratified conditions over the 100-m isobath (~110 km offshore) in the South Brazilian Bight (26°45’S; 47°33’W) and the relationship to hydrography and food availability were analyzed by sampling every six hours over two consecutive days. Zooplankton samples were taken in three depth strata, following the vertical structure of the water column, with cold waters between 17 and 13.1°C, influenced by the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the lower layer (>70 m); warm (>20°C) Tropical Water in the upper 40 m; and an intermediate thermocline with a deep chlorophyll-a maximum layer (0.3–0.6 mg m-3). Two distinct general patterns were observed, emphasizing the role of (i) physical and (ii) biological processes: (i) a strong influence of the vertical stratification, with most zooplankton absent or little abundant in the lower layer. The influence of the cold SACW on the bottom layer apparently restricted the vertical occupation of most species, which typically inhabit epipelagic warm waters. Even among migratory species, only a few (Aglaura hemistoma, Abylopsis tetragona eudoxids, Beroe sp., Thalia democratica, Salpa fusiformis) crossed the thermocline and reached the bottom layer. (ii) A general tendency of partial migrations, with variable intensity depending on the different species and developmental stages; populations tended to be more widely distributed through the water column during daylight, and to become more aggregated in the upper layer during the night, which can be explained based on the idea of the “hunger-satiation hypothesis”, maximizing feeding and minimizing the chances of being predated. PMID:26637179

  10. Secondary production of freshwater zooplankton communities exposed to a fungicide and to a petroleum distillate in outdoor pond mesocosms.

    PubMed

    Bayona, Yannick; Roucaute, Ana; Roucaute, Marc; Gorzerino, Caroline; Cailleaud, Kevin; Lagadic, Laurent; Bassres, Anne; Caquet, Thierry

    2014-04-01

    Ecological risk assessment of chemicals in mesocosms requires measurement of a large number of parameters at the community level. Studies on invertebrate communities usually focus on taxonomic approaches, which only provide insights into taxonomic structure changes induced by chemicals. In the present study, abundance, biomass (B), theoretical production (P), and instantaneous P/B ratio were used as endpoints to assess the effects of the commercial form of the dithiocarbamate fungicide thiram (35 g/L and 170 g/L nominal concentrations) and of the hydrocarbon water accommodated fraction (HWAF) of a petroleum distillate (0.01 mg/L, 0.4 mg/L, 2 mg/L, and 20 mg/L loadings) on the zooplankton community in freshwater pond mesocosms. Endpoints were measured during a 4-wk treatment period (1 pulse/wk) followed by a 5-mo posttreatment period to evaluate zooplankton population recovery. The chlorophyll a concentration in water was significantly increased after treatment with HWAF, whereas it was not affected by thiram treatment. Zooplankton abundance-based analysis showed effects on a limited number of taxa, whereas other endpoints (mainly the P/B ratio) revealed that more taxa were impacted, with recovery depending on the chemical and concentration. Exposure to HWAF mainly had a negative impact on cladocerans, which resulted in top-down effects (between cladocerans and phytoplankton). Thiram negatively affected rotifers and copepods, suggesting more direct toxic effects. The results show that the use of secondary production as an endpoint provides a more comprehensive assessment of potential direct and indirect effects of chemicals on a community, and they also support evidence of alteration in functional processes. PMID:24375909

  11. Diel Vertical Dynamics of Gelatinous Zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora and Thaliacea) in a Subtropical Stratified Ecosystem (South Brazilian Bight).

    PubMed

    Nogueira Jnior, Miodeli; Brandini, Frederico Pereira; Codina, Juan Carlos Ugaz

    2015-01-01

    The diel vertical dynamics of gelatinous zooplankton in physically stratified conditions over the 100-m isobath (~110 km offshore) in the South Brazilian Bight (2645'S; 4733'W) and the relationship to hydrography and food availability were analyzed by sampling every six hours over two consecutive days. Zooplankton samples were taken in three depth strata, following the vertical structure of the water column, with cold waters between 17 and 13.1C, influenced by the South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) in the lower layer (>70 m); warm (>20C) Tropical Water in the upper 40 m; and an intermediate thermocline with a deep chlorophyll-a maximum layer (0.3-0.6 mg m-3). Two distinct general patterns were observed, emphasizing the role of (i) physical and (ii) biological processes: (i) a strong influence of the vertical stratification, with most zooplankton absent or little abundant in the lower layer. The influence of the cold SACW on the bottom layer apparently restricted the vertical occupation of most species, which typically inhabit epipelagic warm waters. Even among migratory species, only a few (Aglaura hemistoma, Abylopsis tetragona eudoxids, Beroe sp., Thalia democratica, Salpa fusiformis) crossed the thermocline and reached the bottom layer. (ii) A general tendency of partial migrations, with variable intensity depending on the different species and developmental stages; populations tended to be more widely distributed through the water column during daylight, and to become more aggregated in the upper layer during the night, which can be explained based on the idea of the "hunger-satiation hypothesis", maximizing feeding and minimizing the chances of being predated. PMID:26637179

  12. Population viability analysis: using a modeling tool to assess the viability of tapir populations in fragmented landscapes.

    PubMed

    Medici, Emília Patrícia; Desbiez, Arnaud Leonard Jean

    2012-12-01

    A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted of the lowland tapir populations in the Atlantic Forest of the Pontal do Paranapanema region, Brazil, including Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP) and surrounding forest fragments. Results from the model projected that the population of 126 tapirs in MDSP is likely to persist over the next 100 years; however, 200 tapirs would be required to maintain a viable population. Sensitivity analysis showed that sub-adult mortality and adult mortality have the strongest influence on the dynamics of lowland tapir populations. High road-kill has a major impact on the MDSP tapir population and can lead to population extinction. Metapopulation modeling showed that dispersal of tapirs from MDSP to the surrounding fragments can be detrimental to the overall metapopulation, as fragments act as sinks. Nevertheless, the model showed that under certain conditions the maintenance of the metapopulation dynamics might be determinant for the persistence of tapirs in the region, particularly in the smaller fragments. The establishment of corridors connecting MDSP to the forest fragments models resulted in an increase in the stochastic growth rate, making tapirs more resilient to threats and catastrophes, but only if rates of mortality were not increased when using corridors. The PVA showed that the conservation of tapirs in the Pontal region depends on: the effective protection of MDSP; maintenance and, whenever possible, enhancement of the functional connectivity of the landscape, reducing mortality during dispersal and threats in the unprotected forest fragments; and neutralization of all threats affecting tapirs in the smaller forest fragments. PMID:23253367

  13. An agent-based computational model for tuberculosis spreading on age-structured populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graciani Rodrigues, C. C.; Espíndola, Aquino L.; Penna, T. J. P.

    2015-06-01

    In this work we present an agent-based computational model to study the spreading of the tuberculosis (TB) disease on age-structured populations. The model proposed is a merge of two previous models: an agent-based computational model for the spreading of tuberculosis and a bit-string model for biological aging. The combination of TB with the population aging, reproduces the coexistence of health states, as seen in real populations. In addition, the universal exponential behavior of mortalities curves is still preserved. Finally, the population distribution as function of age shows the prevalence of TB mostly in elders, for high efficacy treatments.

  14. Well-posedness of a density model for a population of theta neurons.

    PubMed

    Dumont, Grgory; Henry, Jacques; Tarniceriu, Carmen Oana

    2014-04-17

    Population density models used to describe the evolution of neural populations in a phase space are closely related to the single neuron model that describes the individual trajectories of the neurons of the population and which gives in particular the phase-space where the computations are made. Based on a transformation of the quadratic integrate and fire single neuron model, the so called theta-neuron model is obtained and we shall introduce in this paper a corresponding population density model for it. Existence and uniqueness of a solution will be proved and some numerical simulations are presented. PMID:24742324

  15. Zooplankton feeding on the nuisance flagellate Gonyostomum semen.

    PubMed

    Johansson, Karin S L; Vrede, Tobias; Lebret, Karen; Johnson, Richard K

    2013-01-01

    The large bloom-forming flagellate Gonyostomum semen has been hypothesized to be inedible to naturally occurring zooplankton due to its large cell size and ejection of long slimy threads (trichocysts) induced by physical stimulation. In a grazing experiment using radiolabelled algae and zooplankton collected from lakes with recurring blooms of G. semen and lakes that rarely experience blooms, we found that Eudiaptomus gracilis and Holopedium gibberum fed on G. semen at high rates, whereas Daphnia cristata and Ceriodaphnia spp. did not. Grazing rates of E. gracilis were similar between bloom-lakes and lakes with low biomass of G. semen, indicating that the ability to feed on G. semen was not a result of local adaptation. The high grazing rates of two of the taxa in our experiment imply that some of the nutrients and energy taken up by G. semen can be transferred directly to higher trophic levels, although the predominance of small cladocerans during blooms may limit the importance of G. semen as a food resource. Based on grazing rates and previous observations on abundances of E. gracilis and H. gibberum, we conclude that there is a potential for grazer control of G. semen and discuss why blooms of G. semen still occur. PMID:23667489

  16. Zooplankton Feeding on the Nuisance Flagellate Gonyostomum semen

    PubMed Central

    Johansson, Karin S. L.; Vrede, Tobias; Lebret, Karen; Johnson, Richard K.

    2013-01-01

    The large bloom-forming flagellate Gonyostomum semen has been hypothesized to be inedible to naturally occurring zooplankton due to its large cell size and ejection of long slimy threads (trichocysts) induced by physical stimulation. In a grazing experiment using radiolabelled algae and zooplankton collected from lakes with recurring blooms of G. semen and lakes that rarely experience blooms, we found that Eudiaptomus gracilis and Holopedium gibberum fed on G. semen at high rates, whereas Daphnia cristata and Ceriodaphnia spp. did not. Grazing rates of E. gracilis were similar between bloom-lakes and lakes with low biomass of G. semen, indicating that the ability to feed on G. semen was not a result of local adaptation. The high grazing rates of two of the taxa in our experiment imply that some of the nutrients and energy taken up by G. semen can be transferred directly to higher trophic levels, although the predominance of small cladocerans during blooms may limit the importance of G. semen as a food resource. Based on grazing rates and previous observations on abundances of E. gracilis and H. gibberum, we conclude that there is a potential for grazer control of G. semen and discuss why blooms of G. semen still occur. PMID:23667489

  17. Synchronous dynamics of zooplankton competitors prevail in temperate lake ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Vasseur, David A.; Fox, Jeremy W.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Adrian, Rita; Beisner, Beatrix E.; Helmus, Matthew R.; Johnson, Catherine; Kratina, Pavel; Kremer, Colin; de Mazancourt, Claire; Miller, Elizabeth; Nelson, William A.; Paterson, Michael; Rusak, James A.; Shurin, Jonathan B.; Steiner, Christopher F.

    2014-01-01

    Although competing species are expected to exhibit compensatory dynamics (negative temporal covariation), empirical work has demonstrated that competitive communities often exhibit synchronous dynamics (positive temporal covariation). This has led to the suggestion that environmental forcing dominates species dynamics; however, synchronous and compensatory dynamics may appear at different length scales and/or at different times, making it challenging to identify their relative importance. We compiled 58 long-term datasets of zooplankton abundance in north-temperate and sub-tropical lakes and used wavelet analysis to quantify general patterns in the times and scales at which synchronous/compensatory dynamics dominated zooplankton communities in different regions and across the entire dataset. Synchronous dynamics were far more prevalent at all scales and times and were ubiquitous at the annual scale. Although we found compensatory dynamics in approximately 14% of all combinations of time period/scale/lake, there were no consistent scales or time periods during which compensatory dynamics were apparent across different regions. Our results suggest that the processes driving compensatory dynamics may be local in their extent, while those generating synchronous dynamics operate at much larger scales. This highlights an important gap in our understanding of the interaction between environmental and biotic forces that structure communities. PMID:24966312

  18. Diel vertical migration of Arctic zooplankton during the polar night

    PubMed Central

    Berge, Jrgen; Cottier, Finlo; Last, Kim S.; Varpe, ystein; Leu, Eva; Sreide, Janne; Eiane, Ketil; Falk-Petersen, Stig; Willis, Kate; Nygrd, Henrik; Vogedes, Daniel; Griffiths, Colin; Johnsen, Geir; Lorentzen, Dag; Brierley, Andrew S.

    2008-01-01

    High-latitude environments show extreme seasonal variation in physical and biological variables. The classic paradigm of Arctic marine ecosystems holds that most biological processes slow down or cease during the polar night. One key process that is generally assumed to cease during winter is diel vertical migration (DVM) of zooplankton. DVM constitutes the largest synchronized movement of biomass on the planet, and is of paramount importance for marine ecosystem function and carbon cycling. Here we present acoustic data that demonstrate a synchronized DVM behaviour of zooplankton that continues throughout the Arctic winter, in both open and ice-covered waters. We argue that even during the polar night, DVM is regulated by diel variations in solar and lunar illumination, which are at intensities far below the threshold of human perception. We also demonstrate that winter DVM is stronger in open waters compared with ice-covered waters. This suggests that the biologically mediated vertical flux of carbon will increase if there is a continued retreat of the Arctic winter sea ice cover. PMID:18948249

  19. A stochastic model for early HIV-1 population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Tuckwell, H C; Le Corfec, E

    1998-12-21

    A simple stochastic mathematical model is developed and investigated for early human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) population dynamics. The model, which is a multi-dimensional diffusion process, includes activated uninfected CD4(+)T cells, latently and actively infected CD4(+)T cells and free virions occurring in plasma. Stochastic effects are assumed to arise in the process of infection of CD4(+)T cells and transitions may occur from uninfected to latently or actively infected cells by chance mechanisms. Using the best currently available parameter values, the intrinsic variability in response to a given initial infection is examined by solving the stochastic system numerically. We estimate the statistical distributions of the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the early peak in viral concentration. The maximum of the viral load has a value in the experimental range and its time of occurrence has a 95% confidence interval from 19.4 to 25.1 days. The stochastic nature of the growth of viral density is extremely pronounced in the first few days after initial infection. Threshold effects are noted at virion levels of about 3-5x10(-5) mm-3. In addition to modeling the intrinsic variability in HIV-1 growth, we have explored the effects of perturbations in the parameter values in order to assess the additional stochastic effects of between-patient variability. We found that changes in the initial number of virions or dose size, the rate at which latently infected CD4(+)T cells are converted to the actively infected form and the fraction of latent cells has only minor effects on the size, speed and variability of the response. In contrast, decreased speed and magnitude but greater variability in response were obtained when the death rate of uninfected CD4(+) T cells, the death rate of actively infected cells and the clearance rate of the virus were increased or when the appearance rate of uninfected CD4(+)T cells, the number of virions produced by infected cells, the infection rate of CD4(+)T cells and the initial number of uninfected activated CD4(+)T cells were decreased. We also determined the distribution of the time to reach a given virion density. From this distribution the probability of detection of the virus as a function of time can be estimated. The numerical results obtained are in the range of experimental values and are discussed in relation to recently proposed detection and testing procedures. PMID:9837702

  20. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-01-01

    Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

  1. Seasonal changes in zooplankton abundance, biomass, size structure and dominant copepods in the Oyashio region analysed by an optical plankton counter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Matsuno, Kohei; Abe, Yoshiyuki; Arima, Daichi; Ohgi, Kohei

    2014-09-01

    To identify seasonal patterns of change in zooplankton communities, an optical plankton counter (OPC) and microscopic analysis were utilised to characterise zooplankton samples collected from 0 to 150 m and 0 to 500 m in the Oyashio region every one to three months from 2002 to 2007. Based on the OPC measurements, the abundance and biomass of zooplankton peaked in June (0-150 m) or August (150-500 m), depending on the depth stratum. The peak periods of the copepod species that were dominant in terms of abundance and biomass indicated species-specific patterns. Three Neocalanus species (Neocalanus cristatus, Neocalanus flemingeri and Neocalanus plumchrus) exhibited abundance peaks that occurred before their biomass peaks, whereas Eucalanus bungii and Metridia pacifica experienced biomass peaks before their abundance peaks. The abundance peaks corresponded to the recruitment periods of early copepodid stages, whereas the biomass peaks corresponded to the periods when the dominant populations reached the late copepodid stages (C5 or C6). Because the reproduction of Neocalanus spp. occurred in the deep layer (>500 m), their biomass peaks were observed when the major populations reached stage C5 after the abundance peaks of the early copepodid stages. The reproduction of E. bungii and M. pacifica occurred near the surface layer. These species first formed biomass peaks of C6 and later developed abundance peaks of newly recruited early copepodid stages. From the comparison between OPC measurements and microscopic analyses, seasonal changes in zooplankton biomass at depths of 0-150 m were governed primarily by E. bungii and M. pacifica, whereas those at depths of 150-500 m were primarily caused by the three Neocalanus species.

  2. Basic concepts in population modeling, simulation, and model-based drug development.

    PubMed

    Mould, D R; Upton, R N

    2012-01-01

    Modeling is an important tool in drug development; population modeling is a complex process requiring robust underlying procedures for ensuring clean data, appropriate computing platforms, adequate resources, and effective communication. Although requiring an investment in resources, it can save time and money by providing a platform for integrating all information gathered on new therapeutic agents. This article provides a brief overview of aspects of modeling and simulation as applied to many areas in drug development.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2012) 1, e6; doi:10.1038/psp.2012.4; advance online publication 26 September 2012. PMID:23835886

  3. Modelling of microstructure evolution during precipitation processes: a population balance approach of the KWN model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samaras, S. N.

    2006-12-01

    In the present study a general kinetic model for phase transformations resulting in a second-phase particle precipitation in a matrix is presented. Such transformations involve simultaneous nucleation, growth and coarsening of particles resulting in a particle population that can be described from the particle size distribution (PSD). The material final mechanical properties strongly depend on particles volume fraction and radius and consequently on the shape of the PSD. A strength model was used taking into account the contributions of the lattice resistance, the solid solution hardening and the precipitation hardening, using the kinetic model results. The model can be applied to both isothermal and non-isothermal conditions. Finally, the model is validated using a variety of microstructure and hardness data for a 6XXX aluminium alloy series taken from the open literature. It is concluded that the model results are in reasonable agreement with experimental data and capable of predicting the age hardening response of aluminium alloys.

  4. An Individual-Based Model of Zebrafish Population Dynamics Accounting for Energy Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Beaudouin, Rémy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin; Augustine, Starrlight; Devillers, James; Brion, François; Péry, Alexandre R. R.

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) was coupled to an individual based model of zebrafish population dynamics (IBM model). Next, we fitted the DEB model to new experimental data on zebrafish growth and reproduction thus improving existing models. We further analysed the DEB-model and DEB-IBM using a sensitivity analysis. Finally, the predictions of the DEB-IBM were compared to existing observations on natural zebrafish populations and the predicted population dynamics are realistic. While our zebrafish DEB-IBM model can still be improved by acquiring new experimental data on the most uncertain processes (e.g. survival or feeding), it can already serve to predict the impact of compounds at the population level. PMID:25938409

  5. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    SciTech Connect

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Rose, Amy N; Liu, Cheng; Urban, Marie L; Stewart, Robert N

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  6. Chain pooling to minimize prediction error in subset regression. [Monte Carlo studies using population models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holms, A. G.

    1974-01-01

    Monte Carlo studies using population models intended to represent response surface applications are repo