Science.gov

Sample records for 100-year flood discharge

  1. Discharge, gage height, and elevation of 100-year floods in the Hudson River basin, New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archer, Roger J.

    1978-01-01

    The flood discharge that may be expected to be equaled or exceeded on the average of once in 100 years (100-year flood) was computed by the log-Pearson Type-III frequency relation for 72 stations in the Hudson River basin. These discharges and, where available, their corresponding gage height and elevation above mean sea level are presented in tabular form. A short explanation of computation methods is included. The data are to be used as part of a federally funded study of the water resources and related land resources of the Hudson River basin. (Woodard-USGS)

  2. 100-Year Flood-It's All About Chance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holmes, Jr., Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen

    2010-01-01

    In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the '100-year flood'. The term '100-year flood' is part of the national lexicon, but is often a source of confusion by those not familiar with flood science and statistics. This poster is an attempt to explain the concept, probabilistic nature, and inherent uncertainties of the '100-year flood' to the layman.

  3. Flood boundaries and water-surface profile for the computed 100-year flood, Swift Creek at Afton, Wyoming, 1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rankl, James G.; Wallace, Joe C.

    1989-01-01

    Flood flows on Swift Creek near Afton, Wyoming, were analyzed. Peak discharge with an average recurrence interval of 100 years was computed and used to determine the flood boundaries and water surface profile in the study reach. The study was done in cooperation with Lincoln County and the Town of Afton to determine the extent of flooding in the Town of Afton from a 100-year flood on Swift Creek. The reach of Swift Creek considered in the analysis extends upstream from the culvert at Allred County Road No. 12-135 to the US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station located in the Bridger National Forest , a distance of 3.2 miles. Boundaries of the 100-year flood are delineated on a map using the computed elevation of the flood at each cross section, survey data, and a 1983 aerial photograph. The computed water surface elevation for the 100-year flood was plotted at each cross section, then the lateral extent of the flood was transferred to the flood map. Boundaries between cross sections were sketched using information taken from the aerial photograph. Areas that are inundated, but not part of the active flow, are designated on the cross sections. (Lantz-PTT)

  4. Technique for estimating depth of 100-year floods in Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamble, Charles R.; Lewis, James G.

    1977-01-01

    Preface: A method is presented for estimating the depth of the loo-year flood in four hydrologic areas in Tennessee. Depths at 151 gaging stations on streams that were not significantly affected by man made changes were related to basin characteristics by multiple regression techniques. Equations derived from the analysis can be used to estimate the depth of the loo-year flood if the size of the drainage basin is known.

  5. Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Livingston County, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Southard, Rodney E.; Richards, Joseph M.

    2002-01-01

    The primary criteria for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to existing and proposed development in flood-hazard areas. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence-interval flood for use in the management and regulation of 18 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Livingston County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow models HEC-RAS and Water-Surface PROfile (WSPRO) were used to compute base (100-year) flood elevations for 18 Zone A sites. The HEC-RAS model was used at BFE sites 1 to 6, 9, 10, and 15 to 18. The WSPRO model was used at BFE sites 7, 8, and 11 to 14. The 18 sites are all located in Livingston County, Missouri, at U.S., State, or County road crossings, and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on Shoal Creek at Dawn and Shoal Creek Drainage Ditch near Dawn are 701.0, 701.0, and 696.5 feet, respectively. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4 and 5 on Indian Branch near Sampsel and a tributary to Indian Branch near Sampsel are 711.7 and 755.4 feet, respectively. Site BFE 6 is located on Honey Creek near Farmersville and the base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 730.8 feet. One site (BFE 7) is located on No Creek near Farmersville. The base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 731.3 feet. Site BFE 8 is located on Crooked Creek near Chillicothe and the base (100-year) elevation is 716.4 feet. One site (BFE 9) is located on a tributary to Coon Creek at Chillicothe. The base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 734.9 feet. Two sites (BFE 10 and 11) are located on Blackwell Branch at Chillicothe. The base (100-year) flood elevation for BFE 10 is 738.9 feet and for BFE 11 is 701

  6. Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Marion County, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Southard, Rodney E.; Wilson, Gary L.

    1998-01-01

    The primary requirement for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to new construction and avoid aggravating existing flooding conditions. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence flood for use in the management and regulation of 14 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Marion County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow model, HEC-RAS, was used to compute the base (100-year) flood elevations for the 14 Zone A sites. The 14 sites were located at U.S., State, or County road crossings and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on the South Fork North River near Monroe City, Missouri, are 627.7, 579.2, and 545.9 feet above sea level. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4, 5, 6, and 7 on the main stem of the North River near or at Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri, are 560.5, 539.7, 504.2, and 494.4 feet above sea level. BFE 8 is located on Big Branch near Philadelphia, a tributary to the North River, and the base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 530.5 feet above sea level. One site (BFE 9) is located on the South River near Monroe City, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 619.1 feet above sea level. Site BFE 10 is located on Bear Creek near Hannibal, Missouri, and the base (100-year) elevation is 565.5 feet above sea level. The four remaining sites (BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14) are located on the South Fabius River near Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 591.2, 578.4, 538.7, and 506.9 feet above sea level.

  7. Areas subject to inundation by the 100-year flood in Avra Valley, Pima County, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeske, R.H.

    1978-01-01

    Avra Valley in Pima County, Arizona, is sparsely populated and is used mainly for agriculture and cattle grazing; however, its proximity to Tucson makes it desirable for urban development. Administrators and planners concerned with future land development may use the map report to determine the approximate areas that are subject to inundation by the 100-year flood. Avra Valley is drained mainly by Brawley Wash; Blanco Wash drains the west side of the valley. Most of the natural drainage system consists of small braided channels bordered by narrow bands of dense vegetation, which cause floodwater to spread over wide areas of shallow depths. During the 100-year flood, the areas inundated by Brawley and Blanco Washes may join in several places. (Woodard-USGS)

  8. Combining Neural Networks with Existing Methods to Estimate 1 in 100-Year Flood Event Magnitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newson, A.; See, L.

    2005-12-01

    Over the last fifteen years artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be advantageous for the solution of many hydrological modelling problems. The use of ANNs for flood magnitude estimation in ungauged catchments, however, is a relatively new and under researched area. In this paper ANNs are used to make estimates of the magnitude of the 100-year flood event (Q100) for a number of ungauged catchments. The data used in this study were provided by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which contains information on catchments across the UK. Sixteen catchment descriptors for 719 catchments were used to train an ANN, which was split into a training, validation and test data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics on the test data set indicated good model performance, with an r-squared value of 0.8 and a coefficient of efficiency of 79 percent. Data for twelve ungauged catchments were then put through the trained ANN to produce estimates of Q100. Two other accepted methodologies were also employed: the FEH statistical method and the FSR (Flood Studies Report) design storm technique, both of which are used to produce flood frequency estimates. The advantage of developing an ANN model is that it provides a third figure to aid a hydrologist in making an accurate estimate. For six of the twelve catchments, there was a relatively low spread between estimates. In these instances, an estimate of Q100 could be made with a fair degree of certainty. Of the remaining six catchments, three had areas greater than 1000km2, which means the FSR design storm estimate cannot be used. Armed with the ANN model and the FEH statistical method the hydrologist still has two possible estimates to consider. For these three catchments, the estimates were also fairly similar, providing additional confidence to the estimation. In summary, the findings of this study have shown that an accurate estimation of Q100 can be made using the catchment descriptors of

  9. Caspian tern reproduction in the Saginaw Bay ecosystem following a 100-year flood event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, James P.; Auman, Heidi J.; Kurita, Hiroko; Ludwig, Matthew E.; Campbell, Loraine M.; Giesy, John P.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Jones, Paul; Yamashita, Nobu; Tanabe, Shinsuke; Tatsukawa, Ryo

    1993-01-01

    In the 2 years that followed the 100-year flood incident of September 1986 in the Saginaw River/Bay ecosystem, the reproduction of Caspian terns collapsed and then slowly recovered. Egg viability and fledging rates of hatched chicks were drastically depressed in 1987 and 1988. Eggs from clutches laid later in the year were less viable and chicks hatched from these eggs displayed wasting syndromes and deformities. The post-flood rate of deformities in hatched chicks in 1987–1989 was 163-fold greater than background rates for this population in 1962–1967. Embryonic abnormalities and deformities were found in many embryos recovered from dead eggs. Recently published data on planar toxic chemicals from samples of forage fish, tern eggs, and chicks from water birds nesting in the bay implicate planar dioxin-like PCBs 77 and 126 as the sources of these severe bioeffects. The planar PCB congeners accounted for >98% of TCDD-EQ toxicity in the tern eggs, and several were present at levels near or at the LD95 levels each for chicken eggs. Actual TCDD was about 1% of the TCDD-EQ toxicity. Very rapid buildup rates of PCBs were measured in tern eggs. The calculated toxic potency of PCB recovered from tern eggs was about 15-fold greater than parent aroclor 1242 PCB. Smaller tern species were projected to be much more at risk than the larger Caspian tern due to greater standard metabolic rates. The study supports the view that sediment disturbance and sediment banks of toxic chemicals are major threats to upper trophic level fish-eating species.

  10. Water-surface profile and flood boundaries for the computed 100-year flood, Lame Deer Creek, Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Omang, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrologic and hydraulic evaluations of Lame Deer Creek were made to determine the magnitude of the 100-year flood and the extent of flooding that would occur as the result of this flood. SixtY-six cross sections were Surveyed and 25 cross sections were synthesized along a 9.5-mile reach of Lame Deer Creek. Data from the surveys were used to calculate the water-surface elevation at each cross section using a computer program (WSPRO) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The water-surface profile of the computed 100-year flood elevations was then drawn. The profile shows the streambed elevation and the location of the bridge, culverts, and cross sections. The computed 100-year flood elevation at each cross section was used to delineate the width of the flood plain at that section. Flood boundaries between cross sections were interpolated using contour lines on topographic maps.

  11. Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans’ interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofia, G.; Roder, G.; Dalla Fontana, G.; Tarolli, P.

    2017-01-01

    Raising interest in the interaction between humans and climate drivers to understand the past and current development of floods in urbanised landscapes is of great importance. This study presents a regional screening of land-use, rainfall regime and flood dynamics in north-eastern Italy, covering the timeframe 1900–2010. This analysis suggests that, statistically, both climate and land-use have been contributing to a significant increase of the contribution of short duration floods to the increase in the number of flooded locations. The analysis also suggests that interaction arises, determining land-use dynamics to couple with climatic changes influencing the flood aggressiveness simultaneously. Given that it is not possible to control the climatic trend, an effective disaster management clearly needs an integrated approach to land planning and supervision. This research shows that land management and planning should include the investigation of the location of the past and future social and economic drivers for development, as well as past and current climatic trends.

  12. Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans’ interaction

    PubMed Central

    Sofia, G.; Roder, G.; Dalla Fontana, G.; Tarolli, P.

    2017-01-01

    Raising interest in the interaction between humans and climate drivers to understand the past and current development of floods in urbanised landscapes is of great importance. This study presents a regional screening of land-use, rainfall regime and flood dynamics in north-eastern Italy, covering the timeframe 1900–2010. This analysis suggests that, statistically, both climate and land-use have been contributing to a significant increase of the contribution of short duration floods to the increase in the number of flooded locations. The analysis also suggests that interaction arises, determining land-use dynamics to couple with climatic changes influencing the flood aggressiveness simultaneously. Given that it is not possible to control the climatic trend, an effective disaster management clearly needs an integrated approach to land planning and supervision. This research shows that land management and planning should include the investigation of the location of the past and future social and economic drivers for development, as well as past and current climatic trends. PMID:28079147

  13. Flow and sediment processes in a cutoff meander of the Danube Delta during 100-year recurrent flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jugaru Tiron, L.; Le Coz, J.; Provansal, M.; Dutu, F.

    2009-04-01

    River training operations, such as meander cutoff, initiated for navigational purposes often lead to dramatic changes in the streamwise profiles (Hooke, 1986, Kesel, 2003; Kiss et al., 2007). Meander correction affects both the hydraulic and morphodynamical behavior of the modified branches that sedimentation occurs in time, while newly built canals usually experience degradation (Jugaru et. al, 2006). This study reports and analyzes new data on the hydrological and sedimentary processes at work during a morphogenic flood in a large modified meander (the Mahmudia meander) of the St. George branch, the southern branch of the Danube Delta. The 100-year recurrent flood that occurred in 2006 offered an exceptional opportunity for scanning different cross sections of the Mahmudia meander system by means of the emerging Doppler profiler (aDcp) technology in order to analyze the impact on sedimentation and dynamic processes in the study area. The Mahmudia study site corresponds to a vast natural meander which was cut off in 1984-1988 by an artificial canal opened to shipping. The meander correction accelerated fluxes through the artificial canal and dramatically enhanced deposition in the former meander. After his formation, the cutoff meander acted as sediment storage locations, essentially removing channel and point bar sediments from the active sediment budget of the main channel (Popa, 1997). During the one-hundred-year recurrent flood in April 2006, bathymetry, flow velocity and discharge data were acquired across several sections of both natural and artificial channels with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp Workhorse Sentinel 600 kHz, Teledyne RDI) in order to investigate the distribution of the flow and sediment and his impact on sedimentation in a channelized reach and its adjacent cutoff. The contrasting hydro-sedimentary processes at work in both channels and bifurcation/confluence nodal points are analyzed from the measured flux distribution

  14. Determination of the 100-year flood plain on Upper Three Runs and selected tributaries, and the Savannah River at the Savannah River site, South Carolina, 1995

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lanier, T.H.

    1996-01-01

    The 100-year flood plain was determined for Upper Three Runs, its tributaries, and the part of the Savannah River that borders the Savannah River Site. The results are provided in tabular and graphical formats. The 100-year flood-plain maps and flood profiles provide water-resource managers of the Savannah River Site with a technical basis for making flood-plain management decisions that could minimize future flood problems and provide a basis for designing and constructing drainage structures along roadways. A hydrologic analysis was made to estimate the 100-year recurrence- interval flow for Upper Three Runs and its tributaries. The analysis showed that the well-drained, sandy soils in the head waters of Upper Three Runs reduce the high flows in the stream; therefore, the South Carolina upper Coastal Plain regional-rural-regression equation does not apply for Upper Three Runs. Conse- quently, a relation was established for 100-year recurrence-interval flow and drainage area using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on Upper Three Runs. This relation was used to compute 100-year recurrence-interval flows at selected points along the stream. The regional regression equations were applicable for the tributaries to Upper Three Runs, because the soil types in the drainage basins of the tributaries resemble those normally occurring in upper Coastal Plain basins. This was verified by analysis of the flood-frequency data collected from U.S. Geological Survey gaging station 02197342 on Fourmile Branch. Cross sections were surveyed throughout each reach, and other pertinent data such as flow resistance and land-use were col- lected. The surveyed cross sections and computed 100-year recurrence-interval flows were used in a step-backwater model to compute the 100-year flood profile for Upper Three Runs and its tributaries. The profiles were used to delineate the 100-year flood plain on topographic maps. The Savannah River forms the southwestern border

  15. Methods for estimating peak discharge and flood boundaries of streams in Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, B.E.; Lindskov, K.L.

    1983-01-01

    Equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges and flood depths at ungaged sites in Utah were developed using multiple-regression techniques. Ratios of 500- to 100-year values also were determined. The peak discharge equations are applicable to unregulated streams and the flood depth equations are applicable to the unregulated flow in natural stream channels. The flood depth data can be used to approximate flood prone areas. Drainage area and mean basin elevation are the two basin characteristics needed to use these equations. The standard error of estimate ranges from 38% to 74% for the 100-year peak discharge and from 23% to 33% for the 100-year flood depth. Five different flood mapping methods are described. Streams are classified into four categories as a basis for selecting a flood mapping method. Procedures for transferring flood depths obtained from the regression equations to a flood boundary map are outlined. Also, previous detailed flood mapping by government agencies and consultants is summarized to assist the user in quality control and to minimize duplication of effort. Methods are described for transferring flood frequency data from gaged to ungaged sites on the same stream. Peak discharge and flood depth frequency relations and selected basin characteristics data, updated through the 1980 water year, are tabulated for more than 300 gaging stations in Utah and adjoining states. In addition, weighted estimates of peak discharge relations based on the station data and the regression estimates are provided for each gaging station used in the regression analysis. (Author 's abstract)

  16. CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) flood hazard projections: Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange counties

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; O'Neill, Andrea; Herdman, Liv

    2015-01-01

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Phase I data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the Mexican Border to Pt. Conception for a 100-year storm scenario. Data are complete for the information presented but are considered preliminary; changes may be reflected in the full data release (Phase II) in summer 2016.

  17. Quantifying peak discharges for historical floods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cook, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    It is usually advantageous to use information regarding historical floods, if available, to define the flood-frequency relation for a stream. Peak stages can sometimes be determined for outstanding floods that occurred many years ago before systematic gaging of streams began. In the United States, this information is usually not available for more than 100-200 years, but in countries with long cultural histories, such as China, historical flood data are available at some sites as far back as 2,000 years or more. It is important in flood studies to be able to assign a maximum discharge rate and an associated error range to the historical flood. This paper describes the significant characteristics and uncertainties of four commonly used methods for estimating the peak discharge of a flood. These methods are: (1) rating curve (stage-discharge relation) extension; (2) slope conveyance; (3) slope area; and (4) step backwater. Logarithmic extensions of rating curves are based on theoretical plotting techniques that results in straight line extensions provided that channel shape and roughness do not change significantly. The slope-conveyance and slope-area methods are based on the Manning equation, which requires specific data on channel size, shape and roughness, as well as the water-surface slope for one or more cross-sections in a relatively straight reach of channel. The slope-conveyance method is used primarily for shaping and extending rating curves, whereas the slope-area method is used for specific floods. The step-backwater method, also based on the Manning equation, requires more cross-section data than the slope-area ethod, but has a water-surface profile convergence characteristic that negates the need for known or estimated water-surface slope. Uncertainties in calculating peak discharge for historical floods may be quite large. Various investigations have shown that errors in calculating peak discharges by the slope-area method under ideal conditions for

  18. Estimated flood peak discharges on Twin, Brock, and Lightning creeks, Southwest Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, May 8, 1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, R.L.

    1996-01-01

    The flash flood in southwestern Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, May 8, 1993, was the result of an intense 3-hour rainfall on saturated ground or impervious surfaces. The total precipitation of 5.28 inches was close to the 3-hour, 100-year frequency and produced extensive flooding. The most serious flooding was on Twin, Brock, and Lightning Creeks. Four people died in this flood. Over 1,900 structures were damaged along the 3 creeks. There were about $3 million in damages to Oklahoma City public facilities, the majority of which were in the three basins. A study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the May 8, 1993, flood peak discharge in these three creeks in southwestern Oklahoma City and compare these peaks with published flood estimates. Flood peak-discharge estimates for these creeks were determined at 11 study sites using a step-backwater analysis to match the flood water-surface profiles defined by high-water marks. The unit discharges during peak runoff ranged from 881 cubic feet per second per square mile for Lightning Creek at SW 44th Street to 3,570 cubic feet per second per square mile for Brock Creek at SW 59th Street. The ratios of the 1993 flood peak discharges to the Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-year flood peak discharges ranged from 1.25 to 3.29. The water-surface elevations ranged from 0.2 foot to 5.9 feet above the Federal Emergency Management Agency 500-year flood water-surface elevations. The very large flood peaks in these 3 small urban basins were the result of very intense rainfall in a short period of time, close to 100 percent runoff due to ground surfaces being essentially impervious, and the city streets acting as efficient conveyances to the main channels. The unit discharges compare in magnitude to other extraordinary Oklahoma urban floods.

  19. Dissemination of satellite-based river discharge and flood data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, G. R.; van Praag, E.; de Groeve, T.; Slayback, D. A.; Cohen, S.

    2014-12-01

    In collaboration with NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center and the European Commission Joint Research Centre, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) daily measures and distributes: 1) river discharges, and 2) near real-time flood extents with a global coverage. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations', and observed time series cover 1998 to the present. The advantages over in-situ gauged discharges are: a) easy access to remote or due to political reasons isolated locations, b) relatively low maintenance costs to maintain a continuous observational record, and c) the capability to obtain measurements during floods, hazardous conditions that often impair or destroy in-situ stations. Two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide global flood extent coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. Cloud cover hampers flood extent detection; therefore we ingest 6 images (the Terra and Aqua images of each day, for three days), in combination with a cloud shadow filter, to provide daily global flood extent updates. The Flood Observatory has always made it a high priority to visualize and share its data and products through its website. Recent collaborative efforts with e.g. GeoSUR have enhanced accessibility of DFO data. A web map service has been implemented to automatically disseminate geo-referenced flood extent products into client-side GIS software. For example, for Latin America and the Caribbean region, the GeoSUR portal now displays current flood extent maps, which can be integrated and visualized with other relevant geographical data. Furthermore, the flood state of satellite-observed river discharge sites are displayed through the portal as well. Additional efforts include implementing Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards to incorporate Water Markup Language (WaterML) data exchange mechanisms to further facilitate the distribution of the satellite

  20. Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges for Rural, Unregulated Streams in West Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

    2010-01-01

    Flood-frequency discharges were determined for 290 streamgage stations having a minimum of 9 years of record in West Virginia and surrounding states through the 2006 or 2007 water year. No trend was determined in the annual peaks used to calculate the flood-frequency discharges. Multiple and simple least-squares regression equations for the 100-year (1-percent annual-occurrence probability) flood discharge with independent variables that describe the basin characteristics were developed for 290 streamgage stations in West Virginia and adjacent states. The regression residuals for the models were evaluated and used to define three regions of the State, designated as Eastern Panhandle, Central Mountains, and Western Plateaus. Exploratory data analysis procedures identified 44 streamgage stations that were excluded from the development of regression equations representative of rural, unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations for the 1.1-, 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year flood discharges were determined by generalized least-squares regression using data from the remaining 246 streamgage stations. Drainage area was the only significant independent variable determined for all equations in all regions. Procedures developed to estimate flood-frequency discharges on ungaged streams were based on (1) regional equations and (2) drainage-area ratios between gaged and ungaged locations on the same stream. The procedures are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have drainage areas within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations (from 0.21 to 1,461 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle, from 0.10 to 1,619 square miles in the Central Mountains, and from 0.13 to 1,516 square miles in the Western Plateaus). The accuracy of the equations is quantified by measuring the average prediction error (from 21.7 to 56.3 percent) and equivalent years of record (from 2.0 to 70

  1. NETL: The First 100 Years

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2016-07-12

    The National Energy Technology Laboratory celebrates 100 years of innovative energy technology development. NETL has been a leader in energy technology development. This video takes a look back at the many accomplishments over the past 100 years. These advances benefit the American people, enhance our nation's energy security and protect our natural resources.

  2. NETL: The First 100 Years

    SciTech Connect

    2015-07-21

    The National Energy Technology Laboratory celebrates 100 years of innovative energy technology development. NETL has been a leader in energy technology development. This video takes a look back at the many accomplishments over the past 100 years. These advances benefit the American people, enhance our nation's energy security and protect our natural resources.

  3. Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koltun, G.F.; Roberts, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    Multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating flood-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations range from 33.4% to 41.4%. Peak discharge estimates determined by log-Pearson Type III analysis using data collected through the 1987 water year are reported for 275 streamflow-gaging stations. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to divide the State into three regions and to identify a set of basin characteristics that help explain station-to- station variation in the log-Pearson estimates. Contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and storage area were identified as suitable explanatory variables. Generalized least-square procedures, which include historical flow data and account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations, spatial correlation among gaging station records, and variable lengths of station record were used to estimate the regression parameters. Weighted peak-discharge estimates computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III and regression estimates are reported for each station. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site located on the same stream. Limitations and shortcomings cited in an earlier report on the magnitude and frequency of floods in Ohio are addressed in this study. Geographic bias is no longer evident for the Maumee River basin of northwestern Ohio. No bias is found to be associated with the forested-area characteristic for the range used in the regression analysis (0.0 to 99.0%), nor is this characteristic significant in explaining peak discharges. Surface-mined area likewise is not significant in explaining peak discharges, and the regression equations are not biased when applied to basins having approximately 30% or less

  4. 100 Years of ACCU Leadership.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmons, Andrew N.

    1999-01-01

    Chronicles the administrative organization and governance of the Association of Catholic Colleges and Universities over its 100-year history, especially the membership and role of the executive committee and major organizational changes. A chart and timeline lists leaders since 1899. (MSE)

  5. Estimating flood discharge using witness movies in post-flood hydrological surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Coz, Jérôme; Hauet, Alexandre; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Pénard, Lionel; Bonnifait, Laurent; Dramais, Guillaume; Thollet, Fabien; Braud, Isabelle

    2015-04-01

    The estimation of streamflow rates based on post-flood surveys is of paramount importance for the investigation of extreme hydrological events. Major uncertainties usually arise from the absence of information on the flow velocities and from the limited spatio-temporal resolution of such surveys. Nowadays, after each flood occuring in populated areas home movies taken from bridges, river banks or even drones are shared by witnesses through Internet platforms like YouTube. Provided that some topography data and additional information are collected, image-based velocimetry techniques can be applied to some of these movie materials, in order to estimate flood discharges. As a contribution to recent post-flood surveys conducted in France, we developed and applied a method for estimating velocities and discharges based on the Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) technique. Since the seminal work of Fujita et al. (1998), LSPIV applications to river flows were reported by a number of authors and LSPIV can now be considered a mature technique. However, its application to non-professional movies taken by flood witnesses remains challenging and required some practical developments. The different steps to apply LSPIV analysis to a flood home movie are as follows: (i) select a video of interest; (ii) contact the author for agreement and extra information; (iii) conduct a field topography campaign to georeference Ground Control Points (GCPs), water level and cross-sectional profiles; (iv) preprocess the video before LSPIV analysis: correct lens distortion, align the images, etc.; (v) orthorectify the images to correct perspective effects and know the physical size of pixels; (vi) proceed with the LSPIV analysis to compute the surface velocity field; and (vii) compute discharge according to a user-defined velocity coefficient. Two case studies in French mountainous rivers during extreme floods are presented. The movies were collected on YouTube and field topography

  6. Flood discharges and hydraulics near the mouths of Wolf Creek, Craig Branch, Manns Creek, Dunloup Creek, and Mill Creek in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiley, J.B.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, studied the frequency and magnitude of flooding near the mouths of five tributaries to the New River in the New River Gorge National River. The 100-year peak discharge at each tributary was determined from regional frequency equations. The 100-year discharge at Wolf Creek, Craig Branch, Manns Creek, Dunloup Creek, and Mill Creek was 3,400 cubic feet per second, 640 cubic feet per second, 8,200 cubic feet per second, 7,100 cubic feet per second, and 9,400 cubic feet per second, respectively. Flood elevations for each tributary were determined by application of a steady-state, one-dimensional flow model. Manning's roughness coefficients for the stream channels ranged from 0.040 to 0.100. Bridges that would be unable to contain the 100-year flood within the bridge opening included: the State Highway 82 bridge on Wolf Creek, the second Fayette County Highway 25 bridge upstream from the confluence with New River on Dunloup Creek, and an abandoned log bridge on Mill Creek.

  7. A summary of peak stages and discharges in New York for the flood of June 1972

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darmer, Kenneth I.

    1972-01-01

    Intense rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Agnes in late June 1972 resulted in the greatest flood disaster in the history of New York State. Flooding began in Westchester County on June 19 and was followed by widespread flooding in the Southern Tier and the Fingers Lakes region on June 23. The purpose of this report is to make available preliminary peak stage and discharge data for New York streams. Detailed analyses of precipitation, stage and discharge hydrographs, flood frequency, and flood profiles will be presented in subsequent reports. Inundation maps for 39 quadrangles were prepared.

  8. Techniques for estimating flood discharges for unregulated streams in New Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Richard P.; Gold, Robert L.

    1982-01-01

    Equations for estimating flood magnitudes at selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were developed using multiple-regression analyses. These equations relate flood magnitudes to basin characteristics, contributing drainage area and site altitude, and only are applicable to unregulated streams in New Mexico that are relatively unaffected by urban runoff. Estimates of floods at or near gaged sites may be computed with an equation that adjusts discharges developed with the regression equations using station-specific discharges. (USGS)

  9. Peak Discharge, Flood Profile, Flood Inundation, and Debris Movement Accompanying the Failure of the Upper Reservoir at the Taum Sauk Pump Storage Facility near Lesterville, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.

    2006-01-01

    The Taum Sauk pump-storage hydroelectric power plant located in Reynolds County, Missouri, uses turbines that operate as pumps and hydraulic head generated by discharging water from an upper to a lower reservoir to produce electricity. A 55-acre upper reservoir with a 1.5- billion gallon capacity was built on top of Proffit Mountain, approximately 760 feet above the floodplain of the East Fork Black River. At approximately 5:16 am on December 14, 2005, a 680-foot wide section of the upper reservoir embankment failed suddenly, sending water rushing down the western side of Proffit Mountain and emptying into the floodplain of East Fork Black River. Flood waters from the upper reservoir flowed downstream through Johnson's Shut-Ins State Park and into the lower reservoir of the East Fork Black River. Floods such as this present unique challenges and opportunities to analyze and document peak-flow characteristics, flood profiles, inundation extents, and debris movement. On December 16, 2005, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data were collected and used to support hydraulic analyses, forensic failure analyses, damage extent, and mitigation of future disasters. To evaluate the impact of sedimentation in the lower reservoir, a bathymetric survey conducted on December 22 and 23, 2005, was compared to a previous bathymetric survey conducted in April, 2005. Survey results indicated the maximum reservoir capacity difference of 147 acre-feet existed at a pool elevation of 730 feet. Peak discharge estimates of 289,000 cubic feet per second along Proffit Mountain and 95,000 cubic feet per second along the East Fork Black River were determined through indirect measurement techniques. The magnitude of the embankment failure flood along the East Fork Black River was approximately 4 times greater than the 100-year flood frequency estimate of 21,900 cubic feet per second, and approximately 3 times greater than the 500-year flood frequency estimate of 30,500 cubic feet per second

  10. Relative role of bed roughness change and bed erosion on peak discharge increase in hyperconcentrated floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, W.; Wang, Z. B.; van Maren, D. S.; Wu, B. S.

    2014-04-01

    River floods are usually featured by a downstream flattening discharge peak whereas a downstream increasing discharge peak is observed at a rate exceeding the tributary discharge during highly silt-laden floods (hyperconcentrated floods) in China's Yellow River. It entails a great challenge in the downstream flood defence and the underlying mechanisms need to be unravelled. Previous study on this issue only focuses on one possible mechanism, while the present work aims to reveal the relative importance of bed roughness change and bed erosion in the hyperconcentrated flood. Using a newly developed fully coupled morphodynamic model, we have conducted a numerical study for the 2004 hyperconcentrated flood in the Xiaolangdi-Jiahetan reach of the Lower Yellow River. In order to focus on the physical mechanism and to reduce uncertainty from low-resolution topography data, the numerical modeling was carried out in a schematized 1-D channel of constant width. The basic understanding that bed roughness decreases with concentration at moderate concentrations (e.g. several 10 s to 100 s g L-1) was incorporated by a simple power-law relation between Manning roughness coefficient and sediment concentration. The feedback between the bed deformation and the turbid flow, however, was fully accounted for, in the constituting equations as well as in the numerical solutions. The model successfully reproduced the downstream flood peak increase for the 2004 flood when considering the hyperconcentration-induced bed roughness reduction. As the hyperconcentration lags shortly behind the flood peak, later parts of the flood wave may experience less friction and overtake the wave front, leading to the discharge increase. In comparison, bed erosion is much less important to the discharge increase, at least for hyperconcentrated flood of moderate sediment concentration.

  11. Canyon formation constraints on the discharge of catastrophic outburst floods of Earth and Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapotre, Mathieu G. A.; Lamb, Michael P.; Williams, Rebecca M. E.

    2016-07-01

    Catastrophic outburst floods carved amphitheater-headed canyons on Earth and Mars, and the steep headwalls of these canyons suggest that some formed by upstream headwall propagation through waterfall erosion processes. Because topography evolves in concert with water flow during canyon erosion, we suggest that bedrock canyon morphology preserves hydraulic information about canyon-forming floods. In particular, we propose that for a canyon to form with a roughly uniform width by upstream headwall retreat, erosion must occur around the canyon head, but not along the sidewalls, such that canyon width is related to flood discharge. We develop a new theory for bedrock canyon formation by megafloods based on flow convergence of large outburst floods toward a horseshoe-shaped waterfall. The model is developed for waterfall erosion by rock toppling, a candidate erosion mechanism in well fractured rock, like columnar basalt. We apply the model to 14 terrestrial (Channeled Scablands, Washington; Snake River Plain, Idaho; and Ásbyrgi canyon, Iceland) and nine Martian (near Ares Vallis and Echus Chasma) bedrock canyons and show that predicted flood discharges are nearly 3 orders of magnitude less than previously estimated, and predicted flood durations are longer than previously estimated, from less than a day to a few months. Results also show a positive correlation between flood discharge per unit width and canyon width, which supports our hypothesis that canyon width is set in part by flood discharge. Despite lower discharges than previously estimated, the flood volumes remain large enough for individual outburst floods to have perturbed the global hydrology of Mars.

  12. Flood Frequency Estimates and Documented and Potential Extreme Peak Discharges in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

    2001-01-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

  13. Flood modeling using WMS model for determining peak flood discharge in southwest Iran case study: Simili basin in Khuzestan Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoseini, Yaser; Azari, Arash; Pilpayeh, Alireza

    2016-10-01

    It is of high importance to determine the flood discharge of different basins, in studies on water resources. However, it is necessary to use new models to determine flood hydrograph parameters. Therefore, it will be beneficial to conduct studies to calibrate the models, keeping in mind the local conditions of different regions. Therefore, this study was carried out to determine the peak flood discharge of a basin located in Southwest Iran, using the TR-20, TR55, and HEC-1 methods of the WMS model (watershed modeling system). The obtained results were compared with empirical values, as well as those of the soil conservation service (SCS) approach. Based on the results obtained, the TR55 method of the WMS model recorded the highest agreement with empirical values in Southwest Iran.

  14. On the value of satellite-based river discharge and river flood data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, R.; van Praag, E.; Borrero, S.; Slayback, D. A.; Young, C.; Cohen, S.; Prades, L.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide. According to the World Resources Institute, floods impact 21 million people every year and affect the global GDP by $96 billion. Providing accurate flood maps in near-real time (NRT) is critical to their utility to first responders. Also, in times of flooding, river gauging stations on location, if any, are of less use to monitor stage height as an approximation for water surface area, as often the stations themselves get washed out or peak water levels reach much beyond their design measuring capacity. In a joint effort with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the University of Alabama, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) measures NRT: 1) river discharges, and 2) water inundation extents, both with a global coverage on a daily basis. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations'. Once calibrated, daily discharge time series span from 1998 to the present. Also, the two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide daily floodplain inundation extent with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. DFO's mission is to provide easy access to NRT river and flood data products. Apart from the DFO web portal, several water extent products can be ingested by utilizing a Web Map Service (WMS), such as is established with for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region through the GeoSUR program portal. This effort includes implementing over 100 satellite discharge stations showing in NRT if a river is flooding, normal, or in low flow. New collaborative efforts have resulted in flood hazard maps which display flood extent as well as exceedance probabilities. The record length of our sensors allows mapping the 1.5 year, 5 year and 25 year flood extent. These can provide key information to water management and disaster response entities.

  15. Estimation of Flood Discharges at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Streams in New Hampshire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olson, Scott A.

    2009-01-01

    This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for streamgages in and adjacent to New Hampshire and equations for estimating flood discharges at recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in New Hampshire. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 117 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, mean April precipitation, percentage of wetland area, and main channel slope. The average standard error of prediction for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval flood discharges with these equations are 30.0, 30.8, 32.0, 34.2, 36.0, 38.1, and 43.4 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for selected streamgages were computed following the guidelines in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. To determine the flood-discharge exceedence probabilities at streamgages in New Hampshire, a new generalized skew coefficient map covering the State was developed. The standard error of the data on new map is 0.298. To improve estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for 20 streamgages with short-term records (10 to 15 years), record extension using the two-station comparison technique was applied. The two-station comparison method uses data from a streamgage with long-term record to adjust the frequency characteristics at a streamgage with a short-term record. A technique for adjusting a flood-discharge frequency curve computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations is described in this report. Also, a technique is described for estimating flood discharge at a selected recurrence interval for an ungaged site upstream or downstream

  16. Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

    2008-01-01

    Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

  17. Deciphering Outburst Flood Discharges from the Morphology of Hesperian Canyons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapotre, M. G. A.; Lamb, M. P.; Williams, R. M.

    2014-07-01

    We model the hydraulics of outburst floods over canyon escarpments. We show that canyons only maintain a constant width under a certain hydraulic regime. We combine the hydraulic model to an erosion law to constrain paleodischarges at Echus Chasma.

  18. Estimating flood-peak discharge magnitudes and frequencies for rural streams in Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Soong, David T.; Ishii, Audrey; Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Avery, Charles F.

    2004-01-01

    Flood-peak discharge magnitudes and frequencies at streamflow-gaging sites were developed with the annual maximum series (AMS) and the partial duration series (PDS) in this study. Regional equations for both flood series were developed for estimating flood-peak discharge magnitudes at specified recurrence intervals of rural Illinois streams. The regional equations are techniques for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged sites or for improving estimated flood quantiles at gaged sites with short records or unrepresentative data. Besides updating at-site floodfrequency estimates using flood data up to water year 1999, this study updated the generalized skew coefficients for Illinois to be used with the Log-Pearson III probability distribution for analyzing the AMS, developed a program for analyzing the partial duration series with the Generalized Pareto probability distribution, and applied the BASINSOFT program with digital datasets in soil, topography, land cover, and precipitation to develop a set of basin characteristics. The multiple regression analysis was used to develop the regional equations with subsets of the basin characteristics and the updated at-site flood frequencies. Seven hydrologic regions were delineated using physiographic and hydrologic characteristics of drainage basins of Illinois. The seven hydrologic regions were used for both the AMS and PDS analyses. Examples are presented to illustrate the use of the AMS regional equations to estimate flood quantiles at an ungaged site and to improve flood-quantile estimates at and near a gaged site. Flood-quantile estimates in four regulated channel reaches of Illinois also are approximated by linear interpolation. Documentation of the flood data preparation and evaluation, procedures for determining the flood quantiles, basin characteristics, generalized skew coefficients, hydrologic region delineations, and the multiple regression analyses used to determine the regional equations are presented in the

  19. Comparison of peak discharges among sites with and without valley fills for the July 8-9, 2001 flood in the headwaters of Clear Fork, Coal River basin, mountaintop coal-mining region, southern West Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Brogan, Freddie D.

    2003-01-01

    The effects of mountaintop-removal mining practices on the peak discharges of streams were investigated in six small drainage basins within a 7-square-mile area in southern West Virginia. Two of the small basins had reclaimed valley fills, one basin had reclaimed and unreclaimed valley fills, and three basins did not have valley fills. Indirect measurements of peak discharge for the flood of July 8-9, 2001, were made at six sites on streams draining the small basins. The sites without valley fills had peak discharges with 10- to 25-year recurrence intervals, indicating that rainfall intensities and totals varied among the study basins. The flood-recurrence intervals for the three basins with valley fills were determined as though the peak discharges were those from rural streams without the influence of valley fills, and ranged from less than 2 years to more than 100 years.

  20. Effects of flood controls proposed for West Branch Brandywine Creek, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sloto, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    Twenty-four-hour rainfall, distributed over time according to the U.S. Soil Conservation Service type II rainfall distribution, was used as input to calibrated rainfall-runoff models of three subbasins in the West Branch Brandywine Creek watershed. The effects of four proposed flood controls were evaluated by using these rainfalls to simulate discharge hydrographs with and without the flood controls and comparing the simulated peak discharges. In the Honey Brook subbasin, 2-, 10-, and 100-year flood-discharge hydrographs were generated for station West Branch Brandywine Creek at Coatesville. For the 2- and 10-year floods, proposed flood controls would reduce the peak discharge from 1 to 8 percent. The combination of all three flood controls proposed for the Coatesville subbasin would reduce the 100-year peak discharge 44 percent. In the Modena subbasin, 2-, 10-, and 100-year flood-discharge hydrographs were generated for station West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena. A flood control proposed for Sucker Run, a tributary, would reduce the peak discharge of Sucker Run at State Route 82 by 22, 25, and 27 percent and the peak discharge of West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena by 10, 6, and less than 1 percent for the 2-, 10-, and 100-year floods, respectively. For the 2- and 10- year floods, flood control proposed for the Coatesville subbasin would have little effect on the peak discharge of West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena. For the 100-year flood, the combination of all three flood controls proposed for the Coatesville subbasin would reduce the peak discharge at Modena 25 percent. When flood control in the Modena subbasin was combined with flood control in the Coatesville subbasin, the 10-percent reduction in the 2-year flood peak of West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena was due almost entirely to flood control in the Modena subbasin. For the 10-year flood, flood control in the Modena subbasin would reduce the peak discharge 6 percent, and any single flood

  1. Measuring the Discharge of River Flood Using Witnesses Movies Found on the Internet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauet, A.; Le Coz, J.; Le Boursicaud, R.; Pénard, L.

    2014-12-01

    The knowledge of the discharge of river during extreme flood is of prime importance for the scientific and the research community. Unfortunately, measuring discharge using conventional methods is impossible because the high velocities and the floating debris endanger the operators and the equipment. The typical time-scale for gauging does not match up to the time scale of the dynamic of extreme flood. Finally, floods are mesoscale events that affect generally several watersheds at the same time, and gauging teams do not have the capabilities for covering the whole region of interest. Recently, non intrusive method for measuring discharge have been developed and tested in flood conditions. Doppler surface velocity radar and Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV) showed their efficiency for measuring discharge during extreme events, but those methods need to be deployed by operators and the problems of time-scale and space-scale covering aforementioned are not solved. In this study, authors present how flood discharge measurement can benefits from the huge development, the last 10 years, of internet and of the on-line sharing of files. Floods are impressive phenomena, and hundreds of witnesses movies can be found on the internet after every important event. The different steps in order to apply LSPIV analysis to witness movie are detailed: (i) selection of the video of interest; (ii) contact with the author of the video; (iii) preparing the video for the LSPIV analysis : stabilization of the images, field campaigns; (iv) LSPIV analysis, providing surface velocity field; and (v)discharge computation. A case study on the major flash flood of 18 June 2013 of the Gave River at Cauterets, French Pyrennees, is presented. Results show that witnesses movies can bring useful information and allow estimating discharges values. Capabilities and limitations of LSPIV applied to witnesses movies are detailed. Finally, the paper presents an approach conducted within the

  2. THE HISTORICAL TRANSITION AND CHARACTERISTIC OF REVISED ELEMENTS ABOUT THE BASIC FLOOD DISCHARGE IN JAPAN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakamura, Shinichiro; Oki, Taikan

    In Japan, the Flood Control Plan is designed by the Basic Flood Discharge (BFD), which is the hydrograph at a designated point in river. Also, flood control facilities should be designed based on the BFD requirement. The Flood Control Plan method of fulfilling BFD has been used since the Meiji-era (1868-1912), and the BFD has been continuously updated according to the situations of social, economical or technical development for each era. In this study, we investigate the historical transition of the revisions of BFD in all Class A rivers from the 1st Flood Defense Plan (1910) to the revised River Law (1997), and classify the revisions into 5 elements by the revised reason of BFD. We discuss the characteristics of the historical transition of BFD revisions and revised reason with the historical background for each era.

  3. Modelling the coupling of flood discharge and glacier flow during jökulhlaups

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kingslake, J.; Ng, F.

    2012-04-01

    In Nye's (1976) theory of jökulhlaups, lake water drains through a subglacial channel whose size evolves to govern the outburst hydrograph. His theory ignores the impact of the flood on glacier motion that could arise from a dependence of basal sliding on subglacial water pressure. Such coupling between flood and ice-flow dynamics is worthy of study because ice-motion events of various kinds have been observed before or during jökulhlaups in real systems, and because water exchange between the channel and a distributed subglacial drainage system can affect flood initiation and the flood hydrograph. Here we develop a mathematical model that couples these components (channel thermo-mechanical evolution, lake continuity, distributed cavity drainage, basal sliding and channel-cavity water transfer) along a subglacial flood path. Numerical solution of the model equations reveals that a reverse hydraulic gradient near the lake and spatial variability in channel discharge allows a migrating subglacial water divide to form near the lake between floods. This allows the model to reach repeating limit cycles, simulating multiple flood cycles. The channel injects water into and draws water from the cavities at different stages of the flood cycle, modulating the cavity water pressure and the basal sliding. At flood initiation, a wave of high sliding velocity propagates down-glacier due to the arrival of the water divide at the lake and the high lake level. This is followed by deceleration as the channel begins to remove more water from the cavities resulting in ice velocities that are lower than between floods. This begins near the time of peak channel discharge and is due to the enlargement of the channel and the reduction in lake level during the flood. Experiments demonstrate that the flood peak discharge and initiation threshold both depend on the background water supply to the cavities, and that the velocity wave manifests itself differently in glacier and ice

  4. Floods in Indiana, June-August 1979

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gold, Robert L.; Wolcott, Stephen W.

    1980-01-01

    This report documents rainstorms and resultant floods in central and southern Indiana during the summer of 1979. Major flooding was caused by three storms, one in June and two in July 1979, centered primarily in central and southern Indiana. Peak discharge exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval at 16 sites in this area. State Civil Defense officials estimated that almost 50-million dollars damage was attributable to the July floods. Hydrologic data have been tabulated for streamflow sites in the areas of flooding. Reservoir storage volumes, observation-well data, rainfall totals, and discharge hydrographs are presented to show the intensity and time of the storms and resultant floods. (USGS)

  5. Floods of May 1981 in west-central Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.; Fassler, John W.

    1982-01-01

    Extensive flooding occurred in west-central Montana during May 22-23, 1981, as a result of a series of rainstorms. Flooding was particularly severe in the communities of East Helena, Belt, and Deer Lodge. Although no lives were lost, total flood damages were estimated by the Montana Disaster Emergency Services Division to be in excess of $30 million. Peak discharges were determined at 75 sites in the flooded area. At 25 sites the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood, and at 29 sites, where previous flow records are available, the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record. (USGS)

  6. Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350-2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toonen, W. H. J.

    2015-09-01

    Accurate estimates of the recurrence time of extreme floods are essential to assess flood safety in flood-prone regions, such as the Lower Rhine in The Netherlands. Measured discharge records have a limited length and are, in general, poorly representing extremes, which results in considerable uncertainties when used for flood frequency analysis. In this paper, it is shown how alternative discharge monitoring stations along the Rhine, measurements of water levels, and historical records can be used to increase data availability. Although pre-processing and the conversion of data types into discharge estimates introduces extra uncertainty, the added value of this data in flood frequency analysis is considerable, because extending record length by including slightly less-precise data results in much better constrained estimates for the discharges and recurrence intervals of extreme events. Based on results obtained with the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, it was concluded that large floods of the last century are presumably rarer than previously considered using shorter data series. Moreover, the combined effect of climatic and anthropogenic-induced non-stationarities of the flooding regime is more easily recognised in extended records. It is shown that non-stationarities have a significant effect on the outcomes of flood frequency analysis using both short and long input data series. Effects on outcomes of dominant multi-decadal variability are, however, largely subdued in the longer 240-year series.

  7. Convergence: Human Intelligence The Next 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fluellen, Jerry E., Jr.

    2005-01-01

    How might human intelligence evolve over the next 100 years? This issue paper explores that idea. First, the paper summarizes five emerging perspectives about human intelligence: Howard Gardner's multiple intelligences theory, Robert Sternberg's triarchic theory of intelligence, Ellen Langer's mindfulness theory, David Perkins' learnable…

  8. Use of a Smartphone for Collecting Data on River Discharge and Communication of Flood Risk.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pena-Haro, S.; Lüthi, B.; Philippe, T.

    2015-12-01

    Although many developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning systems, the population affected in developing countries by flood events is unsettled. Even more, future climate development is likely to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and therefore bigger impacts on the population can be expected.There are different types of flood forecasting systems, some are based on hydrologic models fed with rainfall predictions and observed river levels. Flood hazard maps are also used to increase preparedness in case of an extreme event, however these maps are static since they do not incorporate daily changing conditions on river stages. However, and especially in developing countries, data on river stages are scarce. Some of the reasons are that traditional fixed monitoring systems do not scale in terms of costs, repair is difficult as well as operation and maintenance, in addition vandalism poses additional challenges. Therefore there is a need of cheaper and easy-to-use systems for collecting information on river stage and discharge. We have developed a mobile device application for determining the water stage and discharge of open-channels (e.g. rivers, artificial channels, irrigation furrows). Via image processing the water level and surface velocity are measured, combining this information with priori knowledge on the channel geometry the discharge is estimated. River stage and discharge measurement via smart phones provides a non-intrusive, accurate and cost-effective monitoring method. No permanent installations, which can be flooded away, are needed. The only requirement is that the field of view contains two reference markers with known scale and with known position relative to the channel geometry, therefore operation and maintenance costs are very low. The other advantage of using smartphones, is that the data collected can be immediately sent via SMS to a central database. This

  9. Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, John F.; Krug, William R.

    2003-01-01

    Flood-frequency characteristics for 312 gaged sites on Wisconsin streams are presented for recurrence intervals of 2 to 100 years using flood-peak data collected through water year 2000. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of these equations. The state was divided into five areas with similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, main-channel slope, soil permeability, storage, rainfall intensity, and forest cover. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 100-year flood discharge ranges from 22 to 44 percent in the state. A graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics of regulated streams was developed from the relation of discharge and drainage area. Graphs for the major regulated streams are presented.

  10. Flood Assessment at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site and the Proposed Hazardous Waste Storage Unit, DOE/Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Schmeltzer, J. S.; Millier, J. J.; Gustafson, D. L.

    1993-01-01

    A flood assessment at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) and the proposed Hazardous Waste Storage Unit (HWSU) in Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) was performed to determine the 100-year flood hazard at these facilities. The study was conducted to determine whether the RWMS and HWSU are located within a 100-year flood hazard as defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and to provide discharges for the design of flood protection.

  11. Circulation in a bay influenced by flooding of a river discharging outside the bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakehi, Shigeho; Takagi, Takamasa; Okabe, Katsuaki; Takayanagi, Kazufumi

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the influence of a river discharging outside a bay on circulation in the bay, we carried out current and salinity measurements from mooring systems and hydrographic observations in Matsushima Bay, Japan, and off the Naruse River, which discharges outside the bay. Previously, enhancement of horizontal circulation in the bay induced by increased freshwater input from the Naruse River was reported to have degraded the seedling yield of wild Pacific oysters in the bay, but the freshwater inflow from the river was not directly measured. Our hydrographic observations in Katsugigaura Strait, approximately 3 km southwest of the Naruse River mouth, detected freshwater derived from the river. The mooring data revealed that freshwater discharged by the river flowed into Matsushima Bay via the strait and that the freshwater transport increased when the river was in flood. The inflow through straits other than Katsugigaura was estimated by a box model analysis to be 26-145 m3 s-1 under normal river discharge conditions, and it decreased to 6 m3 s-1 during flood conditions. During flood events, the salt and water budgets in the bay were maintained by the horizontal circulation: inflow occurred mainly via Katsugigaura Strait, and outflow was mainly via other straits.

  12. The AAS: Its Next 100 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, S.

    1999-05-01

    The AAS: Its Next Hundred Years "We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy."-- Simon Newcomb, 1888. The best way to celebrate the centennial of the AAS is to look forward, not backward, and to begin planning for the next 100 years. However, predicting the future is even more difficult than it was in Newcomb's time. We live in an era characterized by an unprecedented rate of change in the kinds of scientific questions we ask, the tools we use to answer them, and the way we communicate our results. This talk will highlight some of the issues that we will face as a community during the next 10--but not the next 100!--years and suggests that the AAS has a fundamental role to play in shaping the community response to these issues.

  13. Evaluation of flash-flood discharge forecasts in complex terrain using precipitation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yates, D.; Warner, T.T.; Brandes, E.A.; Leavesley, G.H.; Sun, Jielun; Mueller, C.K.

    2001-01-01

    Operational prediction of flash floods produced by thunderstorm (convective) precipitation in mountainous areas requires accurate estimates or predictions of the precipitation distribution in space and time. The details of the spatial distribution are especially critical in complex terrain because the watersheds are generally small in size, and small position errors in the forecast or observed placement of the precipitation can distribute the rain over the wrong watershed. In addition to the need for good precipitation estimates and predictions, accurate flood prediction requires a surface-hydrologic model that is capable of predicting stream or river discharge based on the precipitation-rate input data. Different techniques for the estimation and prediction of convective precipitation will be applied to the Buffalo Creek, Colorado flash flood of July 1996, where over 75 mm of rain from a thunderstorm fell on the watershed in less than 1 h. The hydrologic impact of the precipitation was exacerbated by the fact that a significant fraction of the watershed experienced a wildfire approximately two months prior to the rain event. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service's operational Weather Surveillance Radar-Doppler 1988 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band, research, dual-polarization radar, colocated to the east of Denver, are compared. In addition, very short range forecasts from a convection-resolving dynamic model, which is initialized variationally using the radar reflectivity and Doppler winds, are compared with forecasts from an automated-algorithmic forecast system that also employs the radar data. The radar estimates of rain rate, and the two forecasting systems that employ the radar data, have degraded accuracy by virtue of the fact that they are applied in complex terrain. Nevertheless, the radar data and forecasts from the dynamic model and the automated algorithm could be operationally useful for input to surface

  14. Technique for estimating the 2- to 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alexander, Terry W.; Wilson, Gary L.

    1995-01-01

    A generalized least-squares regression technique was used to relate the 2- to 500-year flood discharges from 278 selected streamflow-gaging stations to statistically significant basin characteristics. The regression relations (estimating equations) were defined for three hydrologic regions (I, II, and III) in rural Missouri. Ordinary least-squares regression analyses indicate that drainage area (Regions I, II, and III) and main-channel slope (Regions I and II) are the only basin characteristics needed for computing the 2- to 500-year design-flood discharges at gaged or ungaged stream locations. The resulting generalized least-squares regression equations provide a technique for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood discharges on unregulated streams in rural Missouri. The regression equations for Regions I and II were developed from stream-flow-gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.13 to 11,500 square miles and 0.13 to 14,000 square miles, and main-channel slopes ranging from 1.35 to 150 feet per mile and 1.20 to 279 feet per mile. The regression equations for Region III were developed from streamflow-gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.48 to 1,040 square miles. Standard errors of estimate for the generalized least-squares regression equations in Regions I, II, and m ranged from 30 to 49 percent.

  15. Change of flood risk under climate change based on Discharge Probability Index in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, T.; Yoshimura, K.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2010-12-01

    Water-related disasters under the climate change have recently gained considerable interest, and there have been many studies referring to flood risk at the global scale (e.g. Milly et al., 2002; Hirabayashi et al., 2008). In order to build adaptive capacity, however, regional impact evaluation is needed. We thus focus on the flood risk over Japan in the present study. The output from the Regional Climate Model 20 (RCM20), which was developed by the Meteorological Research Institute, was used. The data was first compared with observed data based on Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System and ground weather observations, and the model biases were corrected using the ratio and difference of the 20-year mean values. The bias-corrected RCM20 atmospheric data were then forced to run a land surface model and a river routing model (Yoshimura et al., 2007; Ngo-Duc, T. et al. 2007) to simulate river discharge during 1981-2000, 2031-2050, and 2081-2100. Simulated river discharge was converted to Discharge Probability Index (DPI), which was proposed by Yoshimura et al based on a statistical approach. The bias and uncertainty of the models are already taken into account in the concept of DPI, so that DPI serves as a good indicator of flood risk. We estimated the statistical parameters for DPI using the river discharge for 1981-2000 with an assumption that the parameters stay the same in the different climate periods. We then evaluated the occurrence of flood events corresponding to DPI categories in each 20 years and averaged them in 9 regions. The results indicate that low DPI flood events (return period of 2 years) will become more frequent in 2031-2050 and high DPI flood events (return period of 200 years) will become more frequent in 2081-2100 compared with the period of 1981-2000, though average precipitation will become larger during 2031-2050 than during 2081-2100 in most regions. It reflects the increased extreme precipitation during 2081-2100.

  16. Gas turbines fire up after 100 years

    SciTech Connect

    Zink, J.C.

    1996-06-01

    It`s a familiar story. The ancient Greeks, Romans or Egyptians discovered a major physical principle and demonstrated it in a device that can be regarded as the forerunner of some modern technology. Then, as the industrial age dawned, various tinkerers constructed machines using these basic principles but found serious problems that couldn`t be solved with the technology then available. Finally, a ``cost is no object`` program fostered by military needs brings the device to life and, ultimately, gives it a form that is commercially suitable. This article describes how gas turbines have progressed from the theoretical to the commonplace in 100 years.

  17. Remembering Robert Goddard's vision 100 years later

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stern, David P.

    “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” —such are the goals of most of us.Yet a few always exist who feel called by a higher purpose. Society often owes them a great deal.Robert Hutchins Goddard, whose work made spaceflight possible, found his vision 100 years ago this October as a youth of 17. His family was staying on the farm of a relative, when he was asked to trim the branches of a cherry tree behind the barn.

  18. Estimation of drought and flood recurrence interval from historical discharge data: a case study utilising the power law distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eadie, Chris; Favis-Mortlock, David

    2010-05-01

    The choice of which statistical distribution to fit to historical discharge data is critical when attempting to predict the most extreme flows. It has been shown that depending upon the distribution selected, the calculated return periods can vary dramatically. Cunnane (1985) discussed the factors affecting the choice of distribution for river flow series data, and was able to show that small differences in the Extreme Value Type 1 (Gumbel), Type 2, and Type 3 can lead to large differences in the predicted return period. Indeed this divergence increases as the return period becomes larger: a finding which has obvious implications for fluvial management. Despite this, in many studies which fit a frequency-magnitude distribution to fluvial discharge data, the choice of distribution appears driven by regional convention, or even by some other apparently arbitrary factor. Benson (1968) analysed data for ten US stations, and compared the fit using the log-normal, gamma, Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Hazen and log-Pearson type 3 distributions. On the basis of this study alone, the standard approach to flow frequency estimation in the USA became the fitting of a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution (US Water Resources Council, 1982). While several other countries have adopted a similar approach, usage of the LP3 distribution is not geographically universal. Hydrologists in the United Kingdom conventionally utilise a fitted generalised logistic distribution for flow frequency estimation (Robson and Reed, 1999) while Chinese hydrologists utilise the log-normal distribution (Singh, 2002). Choice of fitted distribution is obviously crucial, since selecting one distribution rather than another will change the estimated probabilities of future droughts and floods, particularly the largest and rarest events. Malamud et al. (1996) showed that a flood of equivalent size to that experienced on the Mississippi in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years when a power

  19. Floods in central, Southwest Oklahoma, October 17-23, 1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauth, L.D.

    1985-01-01

    Storms of October 17-23, 1983, produced as much as 17 inches of rain as a result of Hurricane Tico. Rainfall amounts exceeded the 100-year, 24-hour storm frequency in some areas of the central and southwest parts of Oklahoma. An 11-county area experienced flooding with damages exceeding $12 million. Peak discharges were determined during and after the flood at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations and one miscellaneous location. Streamflow in some areas exceeded the estimated 100-year flood. Flood hydrographs and rainfall mass curves are presented for gaging stations located in areas of greater precipitation.

  20. Accidental discharge of a Halon 1301 total flooding fire extinguishing system

    SciTech Connect

    Sass-Kortsak, A.M.; Holness, D.L.; Stopps, G.J.

    1985-11-01

    An accidental discharge of a total flooding Halon 1301 fire extinguishing system is described. The release of the Halon was accompanied by a sudden very loud noise, considerable air turbulence and a dense fog, resulting in worker anxiety and loss of visibility. The workers in the area at the time of the discharge reported higher frequencies of lightheadedness, headache, nasal complaints and disorientation than those entering the area later. Halon 1301 usually is regarded as having a low toxicity, although at concentrations above those used in occupied spaces, effects on consciousness and cardiac rhythm have been reported. In the present report no significant illness or injury due to the Halon exposure was found. A fine oily deposit found on horizontal surfaces in the area subsequent to the discharge consisted of mineral oil and iron, suggesting that this material was scoured out of the piping as the Halon discharged. The disorientation and anxiety produced by an accidental discharge can be minimized through education programs designed to ensure that personnel know what to expect and how to abort the discharge if it results from a false alarm. Situations leading to triggering of fire detectors by events other than fires should be investigated and reduced.

  1. Investigation into the effects of petalling on coefficient of discharge during compartment flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Sobey, A. J.; Tan, M.

    2014-02-01

    Ships or risers, among many other marine structures, incur damage even with the best precautions. Whilst these damages can be catastrophic they often lead to scenarios whereby the damaged structure is ailing but not failed. In these scenarios the structure will flood and it is vital that the rate of flooding can be estimated, from a limited knowledge of the damage, so that safety and the environment can be best considered and an economical and effective recovery or repair of the vessel occurs. In an effort to improve the modelling and hence improve the advice available, research has been performed into how petalling, folding of the structure at the edge of the damage, effects the flooding of the structure. Experiments have been conducted on petalled structures and the results are compared to the coefficient of discharge for flat edged damages. The results show that petalling makes a substantial difference to the coefficient of discharge of the orifice flow which is largely dependent on the petalling angle which can both reduce or increase the flow rate dependent on the orientation. However, this difference can be predicted if the type of petalling is known.

  2. Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koltun, G.F.

    2003-01-01

    Regional equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-peak discharges at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed by means of ordinary and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression techniques. One-variable, simple equations and three-variable, full-model equations were developed on the basis of selected basin characteristics and flood-frequency estimates determined for 305 streamflow-gaging stations in Ohio and adjacent states. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 39 to 49 percent for the simple equations, and from about 34 to 41 percent for the full-model equations. Flood-frequency estimates determined by means of log-Pearson Type III analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III estimates and the regression estimates. Values of explanatory variables used in the regression models were determined from digital spatial data sets by means of a geographic information system (GIS), with the exception of drainage area, which was determined by digitizing the area within basin boundaries manually delineated on topographic maps. Use of GIS-based explanatory variables represents a major departure in methodology from that described in previous reports on estimating flood-frequency characteristics of Ohio streams. Examples are presented illustrating application of the regression equations to ungaged sites on ungaged and gaged streams. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site on the same stream. A region-of-influence method, which employs a computer program to estimate flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites with similar characteristics, was also tested and compared to the GLS full-model equations. For all recurrence intervals, the GLS full-model equations had superior prediction accuracy relative to

  3. Adolescent medicine with a 100 year perspective.

    PubMed

    Hardoff, Daniel; Eisenstein, Evelyn

    2004-01-01

    Adolescent medicine was born out of scientific advances from a wide variety of disciplines, changes in societal mores and the explosion of technology that occurred during the 20th century. The past 100 years of clinical practice and research have provided a wealth of information that has improved our understanding of the biologic and physical development of adolescents as well as the epidemiology of high-risk adolescent behaviors. The present challenge for all providers of health care to adolescents is to continue to examine the effect of these high-risk behaviors and develop mechanisms to address and limit the impact of these behaviors, just as the scientists and practitioners of the 20th century made great strides in treatment and cure of medical illnesses. With a broad base of scientific knowledge, formalization into an academic field and strong government and organizational support adolescent medicine are energized by these factors and can only envision continued growth in this important field of medicine.

  4. Geiger-Marsden experiments: 100 years on

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowley, Neil

    2012-09-01

    The perceptive analysis of Rutherford, celebrated at this conference, turned the experiments of Geiger and Marsden into a measurement of the radius of the object that became known as the atomic "nucleus". We now know that the nucleus can have a range of radii that depend on its static and dynamical deformations. These deformations give rise to the distributions of reaction barriers that have been extensively studied over recent years. While fusion reactions are most often used for such studies, there are cases where, for physical or practical reasons, the scattering channels must be exploited. Despite the major advantages gained from modern experimental techniques, the resulting experiments are in spirit essentially the same as those performed over 100 years ago by Rutherford and his colleagues.

  5. Flooding in Myanmar: joint occurrence of high discharges and high sea water levels?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouaziz, Laurène; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Vatvani, Deepak; Diermanse, Ferdinand

    2016-04-01

    In the summer of 2015 serious flooding occurred in Myanmar when cyclone Komen made landfall in Bangladesh, bringing strong winds and heavy rains to Myanmar. The cyclone struck the country during the monsoon season and resulted in widespread flooding, temporarily displacing over 1.6 million people. It was hypothesized that there could be a relation between occurrences of storm surges and extreme discharges in Myanmar. Comparable studies have shown that dependence between storm surge at Hoek van Holland in the Netherlands and high river discharges of the Rhine at Lobith exist with a lag of 6 days (Klerk et. al, 2015). The processes generating high discharges in the Ayeyarwady river and storm surges along the Myanmar coast were analyzed using global precipitation data (EU FP7 eartH2Observe), a distributed wflow-sbm hydrological model of the Ayeyarwady and a global storm surge model. About 15 historical tropical storms and hurricanes affecting Myanmar since 1992 were analyzed in terms of rainfall distribution over the country, discharged river flow volumes and storm surge extent and magnitude. All storms except for Komen in 2015 occurred between October and May, which does not coincide with the monsoon season (mainly June, July and August). The intensities and the paths of the 15 studied cyclones varied considerably and largely affected the spatial extent and the magnitude of storm surges. The study showed that high Ayeyarwady river flows and high surges generally do not coincide for the following reasons: the large scale of the river basin, the estimated one week travel time of water from the upstream catchment to the mouth, the occurrence of the majority of historical storms outside the monsoon season and the (relatively) limited spatial extent of a storm surge (at the scale of Myanmar). While the applied method is deemed successful for the identification of joint probabilities of surges and river discharges, this study indicates that such analyses are more relevant

  6. Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2015-04-01

    The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to

  7. Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conger, Duane H.

    1971-01-01

    This report provides methods for estimating flood characteristics at most sites where flood information may be needed for planning and design and summatizes the significant flood data and related information available on Wisconsin streams. Individual equations are presented for estimating flood discharges for selected recurrence intervals up to a 25-year flood for drainage areas 0.5 square miles and larger, a 50-year flood for drainage areas 20 square miles and larger, and a 100-year flood for drainage areas 50 square miles and larger. A ratio method is used for estimating a 50-year flood for drainage areas 0.5 to 20 square miles. The equations were defined from multiple-regression analysis of flood peak records and basin characteristics for 119 continuous-record gaging stations and 114 crest-stage partial-record stations in Wisconsin and adjoining States. Of the severai basin characteristics used in this study, only drainage area, main-channel slope, lake and marsh area, and areal factors were found to be statistically significant at the 99 percent effectiveness level for all flood frequencies. Solution of a hypothetical problem is given for using the flood-frequency equations. Graphs are presented for solution of flood discharges on regulated streams where the formulas are not applicable. Flood-frequency characteristics, 2-year flood to 100-year flood, and drainage basin characteristics for stations used in the multiple regression are presented in the appendices of this report.

  8. Techniques for estimating flood-frequency discharges for streams in Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eash, David A.

    2001-01-01

    Techniques for estimating flood-frequency discharges for streams in Iowa are presented for determining (1) regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams; (2) weighted estimates for gaged sites; and (3) weighted estimates for ungaged sites on gaged streams. The technique for determining regional regression estimates for ungaged sites on ungaged streams requires determining which of four possible examples applies to the location of the stream site and its basin. Illustrations for determining which example applies to an ungaged stream site and for applying both the one-variable and multi-variable regression equations are provided for the estimation techniques.

  9. The Psychoanalytic Review: 100 years of history.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Alan J

    2013-02-01

    This paper is written in celebration of the centenary of The Psychoanalytic Review and aims to bring to life its entire history-100 years of publication. Almost as old as psychoanalysis itself, established by Jelliffe and White as a nonorthodox journal, and guided by all its subsequent editors, the Review has maintained its original mission: to serve as an open venue for all psychoanalytic perspectives, "a free forum for all." But the history of the Review is not without controversy. Freud made no original contributions to the Review. The paper unveils the Review's, rich history by looking briefly into the lives of some of its editors, the circumstances surrounding the creation of the Review (including pertinent correspondence between Freud and Brill and between Freud and Jelliffe), the years (with their engrossing politics) that followed the establishment of the Review until its merger with the journal Psychoanalysis (the official journal of NPAP), and the years that followed the merger to the present, including some of the important events that reshaped psychoanalysis. The role of the Review in promoting and reflecting almost the entire evolution of psychoanalysis is illustrated throughout.

  10. The flood of December 1982 and the 100- and 500-year flood on the Buffalo River, Arkansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neely, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    Flood profiles, peak discharges, and stages were determined for the December 1982, the 100-year, and the 500-year floods at 17 sites along the Buffalo River, Arkansas. Typical synthetic stage hydrographs for the 100- and 500-year floods were determined for each site. Flow duration data for gaging stations at St. Joe and Rush are shown. The average velocity of the water for the 100- and 500-year floods is shown for each site. Approximate flood boundaries delineating the 100- and 500-year floods are shown for Ponca, Steel Creek, Pruitt, St. Joe, and Buffalo Point. (Author 's abstract)

  11. Flooding

    MedlinePlus

    ... flooding Prepare for flooding For communities, companies, or water and wastewater facilities: Suggested activities to help facilities ... con monóxido de carbono. Limit contact with flood water. Flood water may have high levels of raw ...

  12. 100 Years of the Physics of Diodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luginsland, John

    2013-10-01

    The Child-Langmuir Law (CL), discovered 100 years ago, gives the maximum current that can be transported across a planar diode in the steady state. As a quintessential example of the impact of space-charge shielding near a charged surface, it is central to the studies of high current diodes, such as high power microwave sources, vacuum microelectronics, electron and ion sources, and high current drivers used in high-energy density physics experiments. CL remains a touchstone of fundamental sheath physics, including contemporary studies of nano-scale quantum diodes and plasmonic devices. Its solid state analog is the Mott-Gurney law, governing the maximum charge injection in solids, such as organic materials and other dielectrics, which is important to energy devices, such as solar cells and light-emitting diodes. This paper reviews the important advances in the physics of diodes since the discovery of CL, including virtual cathode formation and extension of CL to multiple dimensions, to the quantum regime, and to ultrafast processes. We will review the influence of magnetic fields, multiple species in bipolar flow, electromagnetic and time dependent effects in both short pulse and high frequency THz limits, and single electron regimes. Transitions from various emission mechanisms (thermionic, field, and photo-emission) to the space charge limited state (CL) will be addressed, especially highlighting important simulation and experimental developments in selected contemporary areas of study. This talk will stress the fundamental physical links between the physics of beams to limiting currents in other areas, such as low temperature plasmas, laser plasmas, and space propulsion. Also emphasized is the role of non-equilibrium phenomena associated with materials and plasmas in close contact. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

  13. Floods in central Texas, August 1978

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schroeder, E.E.; Massey, B.C.; Waddell, Kidd M.

    1979-01-01

    Peak discharges at several streamflow stations exceeded the historic peaks, and the flood magnitude and frequency data for the Guadalupe River above Canyon Lake, the Medina River near Pipe Creek, and Clear Fork Brazos River indicate that the August 1978 flood had a recurrence interval in excess of 100 years. The highest unit discharge observed during this flood was 3,010 cubic feet per second from a 14.1-square-mil.e drainage area of Spring Creek, which is tributary to the Pedernales River.

  14. Hydraulics of outburst floods spilling over a steep-walled canyon: Implications for paleo-discharges on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapotre, Mathieu; Lamb, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Canyons carved by outburst floods are common landforms on Earth and Mars. These canyons are generally found in fractured basalts and jointed sedimentary rocks. Flood-carved canyons commonly have steep headwalls and a roughly constant width, and are often thought to have formed from upstream headwall propagation due to waterfall erosion. Because morphology is readily available from satellite imagery, these canyons offer a unique opportunity to quantify the discharge of rare, catastrophic paleo-floods on Earth and Mars. However, mechanistic relationships that relate canyon size to flood discharge have yet to be developed. We propose that the width of a canyon headwall in fractured rock is set by the spatial distribution of erosion around the rim of the canyon, which is controlled by the distribution of shear stresses induced by the overflowing water as it is focused into the canyon head. We test this hypothesis by performing a series of numerical simulations of flood-water focusing using ANUGA Hydro, a 2D-depth averaged, fully turbulent, hydraulic numerical modeling suite allowing for Froude-number transitions. The numerical simulations were designed to explore five dimensionless variables: the aspect ratio of the canyon (length normalized by width), the canyon width to flood-water width ratio, the canyon width to normal-flow depth ratio, the Froude number, and the topographic gradient upstream of the canyon. Preliminary results show that flow focusing leads to increased shear stresses at the canyon head compared to the sides of the canyon for subcritical floods and higher canyon aspect ratios. This suggests that proto-canyons start growing from a topographic defect in all directions until they reach a critical length for the side walls to dry. Once this critical length is attained, canyons focus most of the flood waters into their heads, and propagate upstream only, maintaining roughly constant widths. Preliminary results suggest that canyon width may be used to

  15. Flood of December 25, 1987, in Millington, Tennessee and vicinity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewis, James G.; Gamble, Charles R.

    1989-01-01

    Intense rainfall totaling 9.2 in. in a 12-hour period on December 24-25, 1987, and 14.8 in for the period December 24-27 caused record floods in Millington, Tennessee and vicinity. The peak discharge of Big Creek at Raleigh-Millington Road was almost twice the discharge of the 100-year flood discharge and that of Loosahatchie River near Arlington was about equal to the 50-year flood discharge. The inundated area and flood elevations are depicted on a map of Millington, Tennessee and vicinity. Water surface profiles for the peak of December 25, 1987, for Loosahatchie River, Big Creek, Royster Creek, North Fork Creek, Casper Creek, and an unnamed tributary to Big Creek are shown. Flood damages and cleanup costs for this record flood have been estimated at about $9.2 million. (USGS)

  16. Peak discharge on Bull Creek and tributaries, Scurry and Borden Counties, Texas, flood of April 12, 13, 1954

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDaniels, L.L.

    1954-01-01

    This report contains a description of the rainfall pattern producing the flood of April 12, 13, 1954, in the Bull Creek watershed, the results of indirect determinations of peak discharges and estimates of flows at several points in that watershed, and a comparison of the peak stage at the discontinued gaging station on Bull Creek near Ira, Tex., with other floods on record. Field work consisted of transit-stadia surveys at five locations to develop high-water profiles and cross-sections, performed within two weeks after flood occurred.

  17. The October 2015 flash - floods in south eastern France: first discharge estimations and comparison with other flash-floods documented in the framework of the Hymex project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payrastre, Olivier; Lebouc, Laurent; Ayral, Pierre Alain; Brunet, Pascal; Delrieu, Guy; Douvinet, Johnny; Dramais, Guillaume; Javelle, Pierre; Johannet, Anne; Adamovic, Marko; Adnes, Cyriel; Cantet, Philippe; Chapuis, Margot; Coutouis, Adrien; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Gonzalez-Sosa, Enrique; Ruin, Isabelle; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Shabou, Saif; Whilhelm, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    On the 3rd of October 2015, an outstanding hydrometeorological event hit the Mediterranean coast in the Alpes-Maritimes region in south-eastern France. Despite this rainstorm event was very short in time (approximatively 2 hours of intense rainfall), it caused a large rainfall accumulation reaching up to 180 mm. Intense flash floods were observed on all rivers of the affected area, including mostly small watersheds of less than 60 km². They caused 21 fatalities and particularly high damages because of the density of urban areas located in the downstream coastal part of the affected area. The towns of Mandelieu, Cannes, and Antibes were particularly affected. On several watersheds, the reported floods seem be the largest observed from human memory, and may therefore become reference events for flood risk prevention. A post event survey was organised in the framework of the Hymex project in order to document the characteristics of the floods which occurred in a large majority on ungauged rivers, and also destroyed some of the existing stream gauges. A total of 36 peak discharge values were estimated, enabling a detailed description of observed hydrological reactions. This dataset confirms the very large peak discharge values, which remain however significantly below the magnitude of other recent floods observed in other regions of France, and below the existing envelope curves. It may also be observed that the magnitude of this new event is relatively close to what was observed in june 2010 in the nearby Var region. These two events, both being among the largest observed locally from human memory, suggest that the position of the envelope curve should be lower in this eastern part of the French Mediterranean coast, if compared to the Cevennes region which fixes up to now the position of the envelope curve for the whole French territory. A rainfall-runoff analysis of this flood is now in progress to confirm that the runoff rates are not particularly high if compared

  18. Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, R.L.; Bergman, D.L.

    1985-01-01

    Statewide regression relations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge of floods for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years. The independent variables required for estimating flood discharge for rural streams are contributing drainage area and mean annual precipitation. Main-channel slope, a variable used in previous reports, was found to contribute very little to the accuracy of the relations and was not used. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,500 square miles that are not significantly affected by regulation from manmade works. These relations are presented in graphical form for easy application. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for rural unregulated streams are discussed. Basin and climatic characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics and the flood-frequency relations for 226 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are presented. Regression relations are investigated for estimating flood magnitude and frequency for watersheds affected by regulation from small FRS (floodwater retarding structures) built by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service in their watershed protection and flood prevention program. Gaging-station data from nine FRS regulated sites in Oklahoma and one FRS regulated site in Kansas are used. For sites regulated by FRS, an adjustment of the statewide rural regression relations can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency. The statewide regression equations are used by substituting the drainage area below the FRS, or drainage area that represents the percent of the basin unregulated, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain flood-frequency estimates. Flood-frequency curves and flow-duration curves are presented for five gaged sites to illustrate the effects of FRS regulation on peak discharge.

  19. Climatic variability and flood frequency of the Santa Cruz River, Pima County, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Webb, Robert H.; Betancourt, Julio L.

    1992-01-01

    Past estimates of the 100-year flood for the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, range from 572 to 2,780 cubic meters per second. An apparent increase in flood magnitude during the past two decades raises concern that the annual flood series is nonstationary in time. The apparent increase is accompanied by more annual floods occurring in fall and winter and fewer in summer. This greater mixture of storm types that produce annual flood peaks is caused by a higher frequency of meridional flow in the upper-air circulation and increased variance of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Estimation of flood frequency on the Santa Cruz River is complicated because climate affects the magnitude and frequency of storms that cause floods. Mean discharge does not change significantly, but the variance and skew coefficient of the distribution of annual floods change with time. The 100-year flood during El Niffo-Southern Oscillation conditions is 1,300 cubic meters per second, more than double the value for other years. The increase is mostly caused by an increase in recurvature of dissipating tropical cyclones into the Southwestern United States during El Niffo-Southern Oscillation conditions. Flood frequency based on hydroclimatology was determined by combining populations of floods caused by monsoonal storms, frontal systems, and dissipating tropical cyclones. For 1930-59, annual flood frequency is dominated by monsoonal floods, and the estimated 100-year flood is 323 cubic meters per second. For 1960-86, annual flood frequency at recurrence intervals of greater than 10 years is dominated by floods caused by dissipating tropical cyclones, and the estimated 100-year flood is 1,660 cubic meters per second. For design purposes, 1,660 cubic meters per second might be an appropriate value for the 100-year flood at Tucson, assuming that climatic conditions during 1960-86 are representative of conditions expected in the immediate future.

  20. Using dendrogeomorphological and hydraulic methods for peak discharge estimation of flash flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Eguibar, Miguel Angel; María Bodoque, Jose; Díez-Herrero, Andrés.; Gutierrez, Ignacio; Stoffel, Markus

    2010-05-01

    The study of processes such as flash floods in ungauged mountain basins often requires the combination of different techniques enabling numerical models to be developed in order to understand the processes. In this study, we have focused on the use of detailed topography obtained with Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) and dendrogeomorphological evidences to reconstruct the peak discharge of an remarkable event that took place on December 18th 1997, in the stream Arroyo Cabrera (Gredos Mountain Range, Spanish Central System). The methodology was carried out on a river reach characterized for presenting a hydraulic jump on stable bed-rock and numerous scarred trees caused by the impact of rocks and woody debris during the event. Along a 500 m stretch, a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was built with an average precision of 5 mm based on more than 4 million points taken using a TLS. Subsequently, both topographic and dendrogeomorphological data were included in bidimensional hydraulic models.In addition, we propose a methodology to define scenarios based on the deviation between the PSI and the results of hydraulic model that allows convergence in the estimation of flow. The results obtained from the methodology developed allow the magnitude of the event studied concerning the transported flow of an unknown flash flood event. We also discuss the use of PSI from trees to future paleoflood studies. Knowing the advantages and disadvantages derived from each case provides useful information for producing future flash flood hazard maps in ungauged catchments, with exposed goods of great vulnerability. Keywords: Terrestrial Laser Scan, Dendrogeomorphology, Digital Elevation Model, ungauged basins, Spanish Central System.

  1. Data for floods of May 1978 in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parrett, Charles; Carlson, D.D.; Craig, G.S.; Hull, J.A.

    1978-01-01

    Severe flooding in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana in May 1978 is described by tables of data, graphs, and photographs. Flood peaks were determined at 162 sites in the flooded area. At most of the sites, peak discharges were determined from existing stage-discharge relationship curves, and at 30 of the sites indirect flow measurements were made. At 19 sites, the May 1978 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record and also exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood. (Woodard-USGS)

  2. Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System for measuring river discharge: influence of local factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revilla-Romero, B.; Thielen, J.; Salamon, P.; De Groeve, T.; Brakenridge, G. R.

    2014-11-01

    One of the main challenges for global hydrological modelling is the limited availability of observational data for calibration and model verification. This is particularly the case for real-time applications. This problem could potentially be overcome if discharge measurements based on satellite data were sufficiently accurate to substitute for ground-based measurements. The aim of this study is to test the potentials and constraints of the remote sensing signal of the Global Flood Detection System for converting the flood detection signal into river discharge values. The study uses data for 322 river measurement locations in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America. Satellite discharge measurements were calibrated for these sites and a validation analysis with in situ discharge was performed. The locations with very good performance will be used in a future project where satellite discharge measurements are obtained on a daily basis to fill the gaps where real-time ground observations are not available. These include several international river locations in Africa: the Niger, Volta and Zambezi rivers. Analysis of the potential factors affecting the satellite signal was based on a classification decision tree (random forest) and showed that mean discharge, climatic region, land cover and upstream catchment area are the dominant variables which determine good or poor performance of the measurement sites. In general terms, higher skill scores were obtained for locations with one or more of the following characteristics: a river width higher than 1km; a large floodplain area and in flooded forest, a potential flooded area greater than 40%; sparse vegetation, croplands or grasslands and closed to open and open forest; leaf area index > 2; tropical climatic area; and without hydraulic infrastructures. Also, locations where river ice cover is seasonally present obtained higher skill scores. This work provides guidance on the best locations and limitations

  3. Evaluation of the satellite-based Global Flood Detection System for measuring river discharge: influence of local factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revilla-Romero, B.; Thielen, J.; Salamon, P.; De Groeve, T.; Brakenridge, G. R.

    2014-07-01

    One of the main challenges for global hydrological modelling is the limited availability of observational data for calibration and model verification. This is particularly the case for real time applications. This problem could potentially be overcome if discharge measurements based on satellite data were sufficiently accurate to substitute for ground-based measurements. The aim of this study is to test the potentials and constraints of the remote sensing signal of the Global Flood Detection System for converting the flood detection signal into river discharge values. The study uses data for 322 river measurement locations in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America and South America. Satellite discharge measurements were calibrated for these sites and a validation analysis with in situ discharge was performed. The locations with very good performance will be used in a future project where satellite discharge measurements are obtained on a daily basis to fill the gaps where real time ground observations are not available. These include several international river locations in Africa: Niger, Volta and Zambezi rivers. Analysis of the potential factors affecting the satellite signal was based on a classification decision tree (Random Forest) and showed that mean discharge, climatic region, land cover and upstream catchment area are the dominant variables which determine good or poor performance of the measurement sites. In general terms, higher skill scores were obtained for locations with one or more of the following characteristics: a river width higher than 1 km; a large floodplain area and in flooded forest; with a potential flooded area greater than 40%; sparse vegetation, croplands or grasslands and closed to open and open forest; Leaf Area Index > 2; tropical climatic area; and without hydraulic infrastructures. Also, locations where river ice cover is seasonally present obtained higher skill scores. The work provides guidance on the best locations and limitations

  4. Discharge forecasting using MODIS and radar altimetry: potential application for transboundary flood risk management in Niger-Benue River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarpanelli, Angelica; Amarnath, Giriraj; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is one of most widespread natural disasters in the world. Its impact is particularly severe and destructive in Asia and Africa, because the living conditions of some settlements are inadequate to cope with this type of natural hazard. In this context, the estimation of discharge is extremely important to address water management and flood risk assessment. However, the inadequate monitoring network hampers any control and prediction activity that could improve these disastrous situations. In the last few years, remote sensing sensors have demonstrated their effectiveness in retrieving river discharge, especially in supporting discharge nowcasting and forecasting activities. Recently, the potential of radar altimetry was apparent when used for estimating water levels in an ungauged river site with good accuracy. It has also become a very useful tool for estimation and prediction of river discharge. However, the low temporal resolution of radar altimeter observations (10 or 35 days, depending on the satellite mission) may be not suitable for day-by-day hydrological forecasting. Differently, MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), considering its proven potential for quantifying the variations in discharge of the rivers at daily time resolution may be more suited to this end. For these reasons, MODIS and radar altimetry data were used in this study to predicting and forecasting the river discharge along the Niger-Benue River, where severe flooding with extensive damage to property and loss of lives occurred. Therefore, an effective method to forecast flooding can support efforts towards creating an early warning system. In order to estimate river discharge, four MODIS products (daily, 8-day, and from AQUA and TERRA satellites) connected at three sites (two gauged and one ungauged) were used. The capability of remote sensing sensors to forecast discharge a few days in advance at a downstream section using MODIS and ENVISAT radar altimetry data

  5. Floods in the Canadian and Pecos River Basins of New Mexico, May and June 1937, with summary of flood discharges in New Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dalrymple, Tate

    1939-01-01

    In May and June floods occurred in the Canadian and Pecos River Basins of New Mexico that were unusually high and in many places were record breaking. The floods were caused by heavy rains that occurred over the eastern part of the State from May 23 to June 4 in a series of intense and intermittent storms. During these storms of the cloudburst type as much as 12 inches of rain fell in the 13-day period, and a fall of 7 inches in 2 hours and 40 minutes was reported from the vicinity of Clayton. Heavy rains also fell in the mountainous region west of Roswell, amounting to as much as l0 inches at some places. Much of the region that had excessive rainfall is relatively flat and has no well-defined drainage system. From these areas there was very little run-off and practically no water was contributed to the major streams. Hail fell at many places in eastern New Mexico, causing damage to crops, livestock, and other property. Hail fell somewhere in the Canadian and Pecos River Basins almost every day during the storm period, but the duration of the fall was generally short. The largest hailstones were reported from Clayton, where one stone measured 8 inches in circumference and weighed 9 ounces; at Centerville, where reports state that some stones were 9 to 10 inches in circumference; and near Roswell, where it was reported that six stones would fill a gallon bucket. The Canadian River flood reached a peak at Logan of 110,000 second-feet, which has been exceeded in this century only by the floods of 1904, 1909, and 1914. The total run-off at Logan for the flood period has been computed as 653,800 acre-feet. At Santa Rosa the Pecos River reached a maximum discharge of 88,200 second-feet, which is greater than any previously recorded. This flood was partly stored in the Alamogordo Reservoir; the peak below the reservoir was only 25,200 second-feet. The Pecos River flood at Roswell reached a maximum discharge of more than 80,000 second-feet. This water came mostly from

  6. Flooding in Illinois, April-June 2002

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Avery, Charles; Smith, D.F.

    2002-01-01

    Widespread flooding occurred throughout most of Illinois in spring 2002 as a result of multiple intense rainstorms that moved through the State during an extended 2-month period from the third week in April through the month of May in central and southern Illinois, the first week in June in northern Illinois, and the second week in June in west-central Illinois. The scale of flooding was highly variable in time and intensity throughout the State. A Federal disaster was declared for central and southern Illinois to deal with the extensive damage incurred during the severe weather, and to provide emergency aid relief. Discharge and stage records for the flood periods described above are presented for 193 streamflow-gaging stations throughout Illinois and in drainages just upstream of the State. New maximum instantaneous discharge was recorded at 12 stations during this flood period, and new maximum stage was recorded at 15 stations. Flood stage was exceeded for at least 1 day during this 2-month period at 67 of the 82 stations with established flood-stage elevations given by the National Weather Service. Of the 162 streamflowgaging stations with an established flood-frequency distribution, a 5-year or greater flood discharge was recorded at 87 stations, and a 100-year or greater flood discharge occurred at six stations.

  7. Effectiveness of water infrastructure for river flood management - Part 1: Flood hazard assessment using hydrological models in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusyev, M. A.; Kwak, Y.; Khairul, M. I.; Arifuzzaman, M. B.; Magome, J.; Sawano, H.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-06-01

    This study introduces a flood hazard assessment part of the global flood risk assessment (Part 2) conducted with a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model and a GIS-based Flood Inundation Depth (FID) model. In this study, the 20 km grid BTOP model was developed with globally available data on and applied for the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) river basin. The BTOP model was calibrated with observed river discharges in Bangladesh and was applied for climate change impact assessment to produce flood discharges at each BTOP cell under present and future climates. For Bangladesh, the cumulative flood inundation maps were produced using the FID model with the BTOP simulated flood discharges and allowed us to consider levee effectiveness for reduction of flood inundation. For the climate change impacts, the flood hazard increased both in flood discharge and inundation area for the 50- and 100-year floods. From these preliminary results, the proposed methodology can partly overcome the limitation of the data unavailability and produces flood~maps that can be used for the nationwide flood risk assessment, which is presented in Part 2 of this study.

  8. Quality control of the RMS US flood model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jankowfsky, Sonja; Hilberts, Arno; Mortgat, Chris; Li, Shuangcai; Rafique, Farhat; Rajesh, Edida; Xu, Na; Mei, Yi; Tillmanns, Stephan; Yang, Yang; Tian, Ye; Mathur, Prince; Kulkarni, Anand; Kumaresh, Bharadwaj Anna; Chaudhuri, Chiranjib; Saini, Vishal

    2016-04-01

    The RMS US flood model predicts the flood risk in the US with a 30 m resolution for different return periods. The model is designed for the insurance industry to estimate the cost of flood risk for a given location. Different statistical, hydrological and hydraulic models are combined to develop the flood maps for different return periods. A rainfall-runoff and routing model, calibrated with observed discharge data, is run with 10 000 years of stochastic simulated precipitation to create time series of discharge and surface runoff. The 100, 250 and 500 year events are extracted from these time series as forcing for a two-dimensional pluvial and fluvial inundation model. The coupling of all the different models which are run on the large area of the US implies a certain amount of uncertainty. Therefore, special attention is paid to the final quality control of the flood maps. First of all, a thorough quality analysis of the Digital Terrain model and the river network was done, as the final quality of the flood maps depends heavily on the DTM quality. Secondly, the simulated 100 year discharge in the major river network (600 000 km) is compared to the 100 year discharge derived using extreme value distribution of all USGS gauges with more than 20 years of peak values (around 11 000 gauges). Thirdly, for each gauge the modelled flood depth is compared to the depth derived from the USGS rating curves. Fourthly, the modelled flood depth is compared to the base flood elevation given in the FEMA flood maps. Fifthly, the flood extent is compared to the FEMA flood extent. Then, for historic events we compare flood extents and flood depths at given locations. Finally, all the data and spatial layers are uploaded on geoserver to facilitate the manual investigation of outliers. The feedback from the quality control is used to improve the model and estimate its uncertainty.

  9. Integration of flow meter devices for optimal discharge estimation during floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corato, G.; Moramarco, T.; Tucciarelli, T.

    2009-04-01

    Discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers is usually carried out by means of water level measurements and the use of the so called water depth - discharge relationship. The water depth - discharge curve is updated rarely by integrating local velocities measured in a given section at specified water depth values. To update such curve is very expensive and very often the highest points, used for the peak flow estimation during floods, are the result of rough extrapolation of points corresponding to much lower water depths. Recently, new discharge estimation techniques have been developed. A first one is the use of a radar that provides the velocity of short waves on the free surface around its intersection with the beam. The radar can be located on the span of a bridge and the its beam slope is usually about 45˚ . Locating the radar on the vertical of the maximum water depth, it is possible to measure the maximum surface velocity. The maximum surface velocity is well known to be different from the average one, but many researchers have resorted to the use of the analysis tool based on the entropy theory. Based on this theory, the mean flow velocity can be estimated after the reconstruction of the solid of flow velocity starting from the sampled maximum surface velocity and using an entropic parameter, M, linked to the gauged sites. Numerical integration of the Reynolds equations along the section can also be used to link the measured local velocity with the average value. A second technique is based on the analysis of synchronous water level data recorded in two different river sections far some kilometers from each other. This methodology is based only on the analysis of the water levels, the knowledge of the river bed geometry within the two sections, as well as the use of a diffusive flow routing numerical model, linking the unknown upstream and downstream discharge hydrographs with the measured water level hydrographs. The bed roughness, represented by the

  10. Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

    2014-01-01

    Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses. Annual exceedance-probability discharge estimates were computed for 278 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a log-Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data from water year 1844 to 2012. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect potentially influential low floods. Annual peak flows less than a minimum recordable discharge at a streamgage were incorporated into the at-site station analyses. An updated regional skew coefficient was determined for the State of Missouri using Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least squares regression analyses. At-site skew estimates for 108 long-term streamgages with 30 or more years of record and the 35 basin characteristics defined for this study were used to estimate the regional variability in skew. However, a constant generalized-skew value of -0.30 and a mean square error of 0.14 were determined in this study. Previous flood studies indicated that the distinct physical features of the three physiographic provinces have a pronounced effect on the magnitude of flood peaks. Trends in the magnitudes of the residuals from preliminary statewide regression analyses from previous studies confirmed that regional analyses in this study were

  11. Techniques for estimating flood discharges for Oklahoma streams; techniques for calculating magnitude and frequency of floods in Oklahoma from rural and urban areas under 2500 square miles, with compilations of flood data through 1975

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, W.O.; Corley, R.K.

    1977-01-01

    Statewide regression equations are defined for estimating peak discharges of floods having recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. Contributing drainage area, main-channel slope and mean annual precipitation are the independent variables required for estimating flood discharges for rural streams. For urban streams the percentage of the basin that is impervious and served by storm sewers also is required. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds draining less than 2,500 square miles (6,500 square kilometers) that are not significantly affected by regulation. For the rural streams, the regression equations are presented in graphical form for easy application. Calibration of the U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model and synthesis of long-term annual peak data for 60 small watersheds is discussed. Synthetic frequency curves, generated using six long-term rainfall stations, are combined into one frequency curve and weighted with the observed frequency curve at each site. Use of the rainfall-runoff model parameters to estimate flood discharges reduces the standard error for selected frequencies by 9-12 percent. However, collection of the necessary rainfall-runoff data to determine the model parameters is time consuming and expensive. Annual peak data, basin and climatic characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics, and the flood-frequency relations are presented for 188 gaging stations. (PHOTOSTATIC COPIES ONLY ARE AVAILABLE OF THIS REPORT)

  12. Constraints on the rate of discharge and duration of the Mangala Valles flood

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, T. J.; Gorsline, D. S.

    1993-01-01

    Interest in Mangala Valles remains high within the planetary science community. This is justified because the survey mission images provide us with nearly complete coverage of the system at high resolution. Upcoming high resolution topography from the Mars Observer Laser Altimeter will enable the application of flood discharge models with an unprecedented level of detail. Previous work on the Mangala Valles problem has relied on the available low resolution topography. This has limited the ability of workers to constrain discharge calculations to only within several-order-of-magnitude estimates. Local determinations of channel depths via shadow length measurements and photoclinometric profiling are much more accurate, but can only be applied to steep slopes (and/or low sun elevations) in the case of shadow measurements, or across relatively short distances (to avoid changes in albedo along asymmetric photoclinometric profiles). We are taking stereo parallax measurements from medium resolution Viking Orbiter images, which provide a valuable intermediate check of the topography between those measurements made thus far and the upcoming Mars Observer data. The images used are from orbits 034A and 637A, and cover Mangala Valles from the source graben in Memnonia Fossae to the beginning of the bifurcated reach (at 9.5 deg lat., 151.5 deg lon.). These images are about 300 m/pixel and 250 m/pixel, respectively. Both sets of images were orthographically projected to 250 m/pixel. The separation angle between left-right pairs is approximately 52 degrees. This results in a vertical accuracy on the order of plus or minus 260 m. Though this is still somewhat coarse, the channel relief is clearly resolved. Preliminary profiles across Mangala Valles and the large topographic ridge to the east are shown on the following page. An east-west regional tilt that resulted from slight scaling differences in the digital data has been 'removed' by visually estimating a regional datum on the

  13. Estimation of Future Changes in Flood Disaster Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konoshima, L.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Roobavannan, M.

    2012-12-01

    Disaster losses can be estimated by hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerabilities. Many studies have addressed future economic losses from river floods, most of which are focused on Europe (Bouwer et al, 2010). Here flood disaster losses are calculated using the output of multi-model ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs in order to estimate the changes in damage loss due to climate change. For the global distribution of the expected future population and GDP, the ALPS scenario of RITE is population for is used. Here, flood event is defined as river discharge that has a probability of having 100 years return period. The time series of annual maximum daily discharge was fitted using moment fitting method for GEV distribution at each grid. L-moment method (Hosking and Wallis 1997) is used for estimating the parameters of distribution. For probability distribution, Gumbel distribution and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution were tested to see the future changes of 100-year value. Using the calculation of 100-year flood of present condition and annual maximum discharge for present and future climate conditions, the area exceeding 100-year flood is calculated for each 30 years. And to estimate the economic impact of future changes in occurrence of 100-year flood, affected total GDP is calculated by multiplying the affected population with country's GDP in areas exceeding 100-year flood value of present climate for each present and future conditions. The 100-year flood value is fixed with the value of present condition in calculating the affected value on the future condition. To consider the effect of the climatic condition and changes of economic growth, the regions are classified by continents. The Southeast Asia is divided into Japan and South Korea (No.1) and other countries (No.2), since the GDP and GDP growth rate within the two areas is quite different compared to other regions. Figure 1 shows the average and standard deviation (1-sigma) of future changing ratio

  14. Floods of June 17, 1990, and July 9, 1993, along Squaw Creek and the South Skunk River in Ames, Iowa, and vicinity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Einhellig, R.F.; Eash, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the floods of June 17, 1990, and July 9, 1993, along Squaw Creek and the South Skunk River, in Ames, Iowa, are presented in this report. The maximum flood-peak discharge of 24,300 cubic feet per second for the streamflow-gaging station on Squaw Creek at Ames, Iowa (station number 05470500) occurred on July 9, 1993. This discharge was 80 percent larger than the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge and exceeded the previous record flood-peak discharge of June 17, 1990, by 94 percent. The July 9, 1993, flood-peak discharge of 26,500 cubic feet per second on the South Skunk River below Squaw Creek (station number 05471000) was also a peak of record, exceeding the previous record flood-peak discharge of June 27, 1975, by 80 percent, and the 100-year recurrence-interval discharge by 60 percent. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for floods that occurred during 1990 and 1993. The report also includes information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for the active gaging stations in the vicinity of Ames, Iowa, and on temporary bench marks and reference points in the Squaw Creek and South Skunk River Basins near Ames, Iowa.

  15. Power law time dependence of river flood decay and its relationship to long term discharge frequency distribution. [California

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, G.; Lingenfelter, R. E.

    1973-01-01

    Investigations have continued into the possibility that significant information on stream flow rates can be obtained from aerial and satellite imagery of river meander patterns by seeking a correlation between the meander and discharge spectra of rivers. Such a correlation could provide the basis for a simple and inexpensive technique for remote sensing of the water resources of large geographical areas, eliminating the need for much hydrologic recording. The investigation of the nature of the meander and discharge spectra and their interrelationship can also contribute to a more fundamental understanding of the processes of both river meander formation and drainage of large basins. It has been found that floods decay with an inverse power law dependence on time. The exponent of this dependence varies from river to river and even from station to station along the same river. This power law time dependence makes possible the forecasting of river discharge with an uncertainty of about 5% for as long as a month following the flood peak.

  16. Estimating design-flood discharges for streams in Iowa using drainage-basin and channel-geometry characteristics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eash, D.A.

    1993-01-01

    Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates. The drainage-basin regression equations are applicable to unregulated rural drainage areas less than 1,060 square miles, and the channel-geometry regression equations are applicable to unregulated rural streams in Iowa with stabilized channels.

  17. Floods of April 1983 in southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carlson, Darrell D.; Firda, Gary D.

    1983-01-01

    Extreme flooding occurred in April 1983 in southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. The floods resulted from a near-stationary cold front, which moved slowly across Louisiana and Mississippi. Flood heights and discharges of many streams exceeded previously known maximums of record, and for many the recurrence interval of peak discharge exceeded 100 years. On Black Creek, near Brooklyn, Miss., the previous maximum stage (since 1961) was exceeded by 4.26 ft, and the April 7 peak discharge of 42,500 cu ft/sec was about two times the previous maximum discharge. This flood exceeded the 100-yr event. In southeastern Louisiana, the area with the most severe flooding was in the Bogue Chitto basin. At the Franklinton, LA, Station, the April 7 peak discharge of 125,000 cu ft/sec was more than two times the previous maximum discharge. In April 1900 the stage at this site was 29.6 ft, 4.9 ft higher than the April 1981 peak. An extreme event also occurred on the Tchefuncta River near Franklinton, LA. The previous maximum stage (since 1949) was exceeded by 3.75 ft, and the April 6 discharge of 26 ,900 cu ft/sec is more than three times the previous maximum. This discharge also exceeded the 100-yr event. Combined flood damages for both States totaled in the hundred of millions of dollars. (Lantz-PTT)

  18. Estimated 100-year peak flows and flow volumes in the Big Lost River and Birch Creek at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Kjelstrom, L.C.; Berenbrock, C.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to provide estimates of the 100-year peak flows and flow volumes that could enter the INEL area from the Big Lost River and Brich Creek are needed as input data for models that will be used to delineate the extent of the 100-year flood plain at the INEL. The methods, procedures and assumptions used to estimate the 100-year peak flows and flow volumes are described in this report.

  19. Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

    2015-01-01

    analysis using documentary data (plus gauged record) improved the estimates of the probabilities of rare floods (return intervals of 100 year and higher). Under non-stationary modelling flood occurrence associated with an exceedance probability of 0.01 (i.e. return period of 100 year) has changed over the last 500 year due to decadal and multi-decadal variability of the NAO. Yet, frequency analysis under stationary models was successful on providing an average discharge around which value flood quantiles estimated by non-stationary models fluctuate through time.

  20. Floods of May to June 1983 along the northern Wasatch Front, Salt Lake City to North Ogden, Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lindskov, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    Determinations of peak discharge for floods of May to June 1983 were made for 11 streams along the northern Wasatch Front from Salt Lake City to North Ogden. At nine of the streams, the floods during the spring of 1983 equaled or exceeded the 100-year flood. The peak discharge at Stone Creek was 40 times the maximum previously known flood, and the peak discharges at the other sites ranged from slightly greater to about five times that previously known. In addition to the outstanding peak discharges, streamflow at the 11 sites commonly remains high for days, weeks, or even a month.The floods resulted from retention of an abnormally large snowpack until rain combined with above normal temperature caused rapid melting. The peak discharges and continued high flows damaged homes, highways, and drainage canals.

  1. Floods of May to June, 1983, along the northern Wasatch Front, Salt Lake City to North Ogden, Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lindskov, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    Determinations of peak discharge for floods of May to June 1983 were made for 11 streams along the northern Wasatch Front from Salt Lake City to North Ogden. At nine of the streams, the floods during the spring of 1983 equaled or exceeded the 100-year flood. The peak discharge at Stone Creek was 40 times the maximum previously known flood, and the peak discharges at the other sites ranged from slightly greater to about five times that previously known. In addition to the outstanding peak discharges, streamflow at the 11 sites commonly remains high for days, weeks, or even a month.The floods resulted from retention of an abnormally large snowpack until rain combined with above normal temperature caused rapid melting. The peak discharges and continued high flows damaged homes, highways, and drainage canals.

  2. Progress of Cometary Science in the Past 100 Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sekanina, Zdenek

    1999-01-01

    Enormous strides made by cometary science during the 20th century defy any meaningful comparison of its state 100 years ago and now. The great majority of the subfields enjoying much attention nowadays did not exist in the year 1900. Dramatic developments, especially in the past 30-50 years, have equally affected observational and theoretical studies of comets. The profound diversification of observing techniques has been documented by the ever widening limits on the electromagnetic spectrum covered. While the time around 1900 marked an early period of slow and painful experimentation with photographic methods in cometary studies, observations of comets from the x-ray region to the radio waves have by now become routine. Many of the new techniques, and all those involved with the wavelengths shorter than about 300 nm, were made possible by another major breakthrough of this century - observing from space. Experiments on dedicated Earth-orbiting satellites as well as several deep-space probes have provided fascinating new information on the nature and makeup of comets. In broader terms, much of the progress has been achieved thanks to fundamental discoveries and major advances in electronics, whose applications resulted in qualitatively new instruments (e.g. radiotelescopes) and sensors or detectors (e.g. CCD arrays). The most universal effect on the entire cometary science, from observing to data handling to quantitative interpretations, has been, as in any other branch of science, due to the introduction of electronic computers, with their processing capabilities not only unheard of, but literally unimaginable, in the age of classical desk calculators. As if all this should not be enough, the today's generations of comet scientists have, in addition, been blessed with nature's highly appreciated cooperation. Indeed, in the span of a dozen years, between 1985 and 1997, we were privileged to witness four remarkable cometary events: (i) a return of Halley

  3. Local Flood Proofing Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-02-01

    100-year flood. Selecting an appropriate flood protection level is discussed on page 63. Human Intervention: the need for one or more people to be...this publication, communities were asked “Why did your community select flood proofing as a damage reduction measure?” Six broad reasons were cited...Flood Proofing Programs – 10 – February 2005 External impact: Sometimes flood proofing is selected because the other flood protection measures

  4. Flood of December 1987 in central and eastern Arkansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neely, B.L.

    1990-01-01

    Heavy rain fell across Arkansas during December 24-28, 1987. During this period, 6 to 12 inches of rain fell in a 100-mile wide belt extending roughly from Texarkana to West Memphis, Arkansas. The intense rainfall produced flooding throughout much of central and eastern Arkansas. Peak discharges associated with the flood had recurrence intervals of 100 years at two gaging stations. Peak stages, discharges, and recurrence intervals for this flood are documented profiles for 41 gaging stations. Also included in this report are flood profiles for Bayou Meto, Bayou Two Prairie, Cache River, L'Anguille River, and flood hydrographs for gaging stations on Bayou Meto near Lonoke and Cache River at Patterson. (USGS)

  5. 100 Years of Commitment to Children: Change and Continuity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shore, Rima

    The Foundation for Child Development (FCD) is the oldest philanthropy in the nation focused on improving the life prospects of children. This booklet, produced for FCD's centennial, describes the organization's origins and changes during the past 100 years. The booklet's sections, which include photographs, quotes, and a timeline, are: (1)…

  6. Centennial Calendar- 100 Years of the American Phytopathological Society

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    I edited a 40-page publication (calendar) that covered 18 chapters written by members of our society. This covered pioneering researchers, departments, and epidemics of the last 100 years of plant pathology in the U. S. This was given to all members of the American Phytopathological Society who att...

  7. Spring wheat gliadins: Have they changed in 100 years?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There have been many hard red spring (HRS) wheat cultivars released in North Dakota during the last 100 years. These cultivars have been improved for various characteristics such as, adaptation to weather conditions, high yield, and good milling and baking quality. The objectives of this study wer...

  8. Women in July Fourth Cartoons: A 100-Year Look.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Katherine; And Others

    1980-01-01

    Analyzes the dominance, appearance, and role of women as depicted in newspaper Independence Day political cartoons over a 100-year period. Concludes that woman's place has gradually broadened to include activities beyond wife and mother. Indicates a resistance to changing norms and difficulty in coping with emerging ones. (JMF)

  9. Flood of June 27, 1975, in City of Ames, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lara, Oscar G.; Heinitz, Albert J.

    1976-01-01

    The peak discharge at the Squaw Creek station, 206 mi2 (534 km2), was measured at 11,300 ft3/s (320 m3/s), which is 1.6 times the 100-year flood. The south Skunk River above the confluence with Squaw creek, 315 mi2 (816 km2), peaked at 5,330 ft3/s (151 m3). The recurrence interval of this discharge is 6.0 years. The peak discharge on the South Skunk River below the confluence with Squaw creek, 556 mi2 (1440 km2), was 14,700 ft3/s (416 m3/s), which is 1.1 times the 100-year flood.

  10. Floods

    MedlinePlus

    ... quickly, often have a dangerous wall of roaring water. The wall carries rocks, mud, and rubble and can sweep away most things in its path. Be aware of flood hazards no matter where you live, but especially if you live in a low-lying area, near water or downstream from a dam. Although there are ...

  11. Floods of December 1982 to May 1983 in the central and southern Mississippi River and the Gulf of Mexico basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stone, Roy B.; Bingham, Roy H.

    1991-01-01

    Widespread flooding occurred in December 1982 and in spring 1983 in the central and southern Mississippi River basin. The first series of storms, December 2-7, caused severe flooding along many streams in Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas. Much of the three-State area experienced recordbreaking 24-hour rainfall amounts that caused some streams to exceed previously known flood heights and discharges; in many cases the recurrence interval of peak discharges exceeded 100 years. The second series of storms, December 24-29, caused severe flooding in Louisiana and moderate flooding in Mississippi. Peak discharges on some streams exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval. Damages exceeded $200 million and 25 persons died as a result of the December storms. Western Tennessee was on the fringes of both storms and received only minor flooding. During April 4-8, 1983, as much as 17 inches of rain fell in parts of southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. In some areas, 24-hour amounts exceeded 5 inches, causing peak discharges to exceed the recurrence interval of 100 years at 20 streamflow gaging stations. In May 1983 heavy and intense rains caused major flooding in the Big Black River and Pearl River basins in Mississippi.

  12. Flood of April 2007 in New Hampshire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flynn, Robert H.

    2008-01-01

    During April 16-18, 2007, central and southeastern New Hampshire experienced severe flooding as a result of up to 7 inches of rainfall from a storm that stalled off the New England coast. As a result of the flooding, a Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued on April 27, 2007. On that day, disaster declarations were announced for Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham, and Strafford Counties. On May 10, 2007, Belknap County was added to the disaster declaration. Following the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative investigation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, determined the peak stages, peak discharges, and recurrence-interval estimates of the April 2007 flood at 57 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites in and adjacent to the counties named in the disaster declaration. Data from flood-insurance studies published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency also were compiled for each streamgage site for comparison purposes. The peak discharges during the April 2007 flood were the highest ever recorded at five long-term (more than 10 years of record) streamgage sites on the New Hampshire-Salmon Falls River at Milton, Cocheco River near Rochester, Oyster River near Durham, Contoocook River at Peterborough, and South Branch Piscataquog River near Goffstown. In addition, peak discharges equaled or exceeded a 100-year recurrence interval at 10 streamgages and a 50-year recurrence interval at 16 streamgages. The most severe flooding occurred in Rockingham, Strafford, Merrimack, and Hillsborough Counties.

  13. Flood of May 2006 in New Hampshire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olson, Scott A.

    2007-01-01

    From May 13-17, 2006, central and southern New Hampshire experienced severe flooding caused by as much as 14 inches of rainfall in the region. As a result of the flood damage, a presidential disaster declaration was made on May 25, 2006, for seven counties-Rockingham, Hillsborough, Strafford, Merrimack, Belknap, Carroll, and Grafton. Following the flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in a cooperative investigation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, determined the peak stages, peak discharges, and recurrence-interval estimates of the May 2006 flood at 65 streamgages in the counties where the disaster declaration was made. Data from flood-insurance studies published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency also were compiled for each streamgage location for comparison purposes. The peak discharges during the May 2006 flood were the largest ever recorded at 14 long-term (more than 10 years of record) streamgages in New Hampshire. In addition, peak discharges equaled or exceeded a 100-year recurrence interval at 14 streamgages and equaled or exceeded a 50-year recurrence interval at 22 streamgages. The most severe flooding occurred in Rockingham, Strafford, Merrimack, and eastern and northern Hillsborough Counties.

  14. Flood of June 15, 1981, in Great Bend and vicinity, central Kansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clement, R.W.; Johnson, D.G.

    1982-01-01

    Torrential precipitation, as much as 20 inches in 12 hours, resulted in unprecedented flooding on Dry Walnut Creek in southwestern Barton County, central Kansas. Runoff from the storm caused extensive flooding in the town of Great Bend on June 15, 1981. Estimates of total damages exceeded $42 million. Measurements of peak discharges made in the downstream part of the Dry Walnut Creek watershed were as much as 3 1/2 times the estimated magnitude of the 100-year flood and in some locations exceeded the maximum previously measured discharge for the area. (USGS)

  15. Flood of October 1986 at Seward, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, S.H.; Zenone, Chester

    1988-01-01

    Broad areas along the lower Resurrection River and Salmon Creek as well as the surfaces of several adjacent alluvial fans in the Seward area were flooded as a result of the intensive rainstorm of October 9-11, 1986. Severe erosion took place through the steep gradient, mountain canyons and near the apex of the fans, while rock and debris were deposited on the distal parts of the fans. In Godwin, Lost, Box Canyon, Japanese, and Spruce Creek basins, and perhaps others, landslides or debris avalanches dammed the streams temporarily. Subsequent failure or overtopping of these dams led to ' surge-release ' flooding; peak discharge of such a flood at Spruce Creek was 13,600 cu ft/sec, four times as great as any previously known maximum discharge from the basin and 2.5 times as great as the runoff rate from the debris dam. Flood discharges were determined indirectly--using the slope-area method--at ten high-gradient reaches on nine streams. Computed peak discharges for several small basins were the largest since records began in 1963. The largest rainfall-runoff rate unaffected by surge-release was 1 ,020 cu ft per sec per sq mi at Rudolph Creek, which has a drainage area of 1.00 sq mi. The 15.05 inches of rain that fell in one 24-hour period during the storm was assigned a recurrence interval of 100 years or greater. The length of the streamflow record available for most Seward area streams-25 years or less-is inadequate to reliably define flood frequency relations for recurrence intervals as great as 100 years. However, the slope-area determined discharge of Spruce Creek above the debris avalanche indicates a recurrence interval of a 100 years or greater. In addition, conventional flood-frequency analysis techniques are not applicable to peak discharges that are affected by surge-release phenomena. Large, damaging floods have repeatedly caused major damage in the Seward area, and the potential for catastrophic, debris-laden floods is an ever-present threat to areas

  16. Correcting acoustic Doppler current profiler discharge measurement bias from moving-bed conditions without global positioning during the 2004 Glen Canyon Dam controlled flood on the Colorado River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gartner, J.W.; Ganju, N.K.

    2007-01-01

    Discharge measurements were made by acoustic Doppler current profiler at two locations on the Colorado River during the 2004 controlled flood from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona. Measurement hardware and software have constantly improved from the 1980s such that discharge measurements by acoustic profiling instruments are now routinely made over a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, measurements made with instruments deployed from moving boats require reliable boat velocity data for accurate measurements of discharge. This is normally accomplished by using special acoustic bottom track pings that sense instrument motion over bottom. While this method is suitable for most conditions, high current flows that produce downstream bed sediment movement create a condition known as moving bed that will bias velocities and discharge to lower than actual values. When this situation exists, one solution is to determine boat velocity with satellite positioning information. Another solution is to use a lower frequency instrument. Discharge measurements made during the 2004 Glen Canyon controlled flood were subject to moving-bed conditions and frequent loss of bottom track. Due to site conditions and equipment availability, the measurements were conducted without benefit of external positioning information or lower frequency instruments. This paper documents and evaluates several techniques used to correct the resulting underestimated discharge measurements. One technique produces discharge values in good agreement with estimates from numerical model and measured hydrographs during the flood. ?? 2007, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

  17. Estimation of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities for unregulated, rural streams in Vermont, with a section on Vermont regional skew regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olson, Scott A.; with a section by Veilleux, Andrea G.

    2014-01-01

    This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) for streamgages in and adjacent to Vermont and equations for estimating flood discharges at AEPs of 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent (recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-years, respectively) for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in Vermont. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 145 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, percentage of wetland area, and the basin-wide mean of the average annual precipitation. The average standard errors of prediction for estimating the flood discharges at the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP with these equations are 34.9, 36.0, 38.7, 42.4, 44.9, 47.3, 50.7, and 55.1 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected AEPs for streamgages were computed by using the Expected Moments Algorithm. To improve estimates of the flood discharges for given exceedance probabilities at streamgages in Vermont, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed. The new generalized skew for the region is a constant, 0.44. The mean square error of the generalized skew coefficient is 0.078. This report describes a technique for using results from the regression equations to adjust an AEP discharge computed from a streamgage record. This report also describes a technique for using a drainage-area adjustment to estimate flood discharge at a selected AEP for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

  18. Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.T.; Dunne, K.A.; Delworth, T.L.

    2002-01-01

    Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods - that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km2 - using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.

  19. Floods in Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, September 12-13, 1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauth, Leland D.; Carswell, William J.

    1978-01-01

    The storm of September 12-13, 1977, produced as much as 16 inches of rainfall in the Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas area, left 25 persons dead, many homeless, and over 50 million dollars in damages. Flood hydrographs taken from U.S. Geological Survey gaging-stations reflected two storms occurring within 24 hours. Measured precipitation indicated each storm event to be near a 100-year, 24-hour rainfall frequency. Peak discharges determined at selected locations in areas of greater rainfall depths exceeded those of the 100-year floods. (Woodard-USGS)

  20. NASA Administrator Dan Goldin greets 100-year-old VIP.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Among the VIPs attending the launch of STS-99 is Captain Ralph Charles (left), standing next to NASA Administrator Dan Goldin. Charles hopes to have his wish fulfilled of watching a Shuttle launch in person. The 100-year-old aviator has experienced nearly a century of flight history, from the Wright Brothers to the Space Program. He took flying lessons from one of the first fliers trained by Orville Wright, first repaired then built airplanes, went barnstorming, operated a charter service in the Caribbean, and worked as a test pilot for the Curtiss Wright Airplane Co. Charles is the oldest licensed pilot in the United States, and is still flying.

  1. Palama Settlement: 100 years of serving a neighborhood's needs.

    PubMed

    Rath, P

    1995-11-01

    The founding of Palama Settlement brought to those who might not be able to afford it public health nurses for maternal care and nutrition, well-baby clinics, tuberculosis clinics, medical and dental clinics, and eventually major support of medical needs during and after the attack on Pearl Harbor. Palama Settlement celebrates its centennial year with many of its early functions assumed by state and private organizations, but it is prepared to enter the next 100 years of service to the community. Palama was founded by James Arthur Rath with the purpose of serving the community; many people today remember their childhood and Palama Settlement.

  2. 100 years since the discovery of cosmic rays. A brief history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiavassa, Andrea

    2012-11-01

    With the words "Cosmic Rays" we mean particles impinging on the earth atmosphere. The existence of these particles was discovered in 1912, i.e. exactly 100 years ago, by the Austrian physicist Victor Hesss. In this contribution I will describe the steps that lead to such a discovery: from the electroscope measurements, showing their spontaneous discharge, to the correct explanation of this results with the existence of charged particles arriving from outside of the atmosphere. Then I will discuss the first steps of experimental particle physics, obtained with experiments performed detecting cosmic rays, that allowed important discoveries as the detection of antimatter and of new subatominc particles as muons and pions.

  3. Constraining frequency-magnitude-area relationships for rainfall and flood discharges using radar-derived precipitation estimates: example applications in the Upper and Lower Colorado River basins, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orem, Caitlin A.; Pelletier, Jon D.

    2016-11-01

    Flood-envelope curves (FECs) are useful for constraining the upper limit of possible flood discharges within drainage basins in a particular hydroclimatic region. Their usefulness, however, is limited by their lack of a well-defined recurrence interval. In this study we use radar-derived precipitation estimates to develop an alternative to the FEC method, i.e., the frequency-magnitude-area-curve (FMAC) method that incorporates recurrence intervals. The FMAC method is demonstrated in two well-studied US drainage basins, i.e., the Upper and Lower Colorado River basins (UCRB and LCRB, respectively), using Stage III Next-Generation-Radar (NEXRAD) gridded products and the diffusion-wave flow-routing algorithm. The FMAC method can be applied worldwide using any radar-derived precipitation estimates. In the FMAC method, idealized basins of similar contributing area are grouped together for frequency-magnitude analysis of precipitation intensity. These data are then routed through the idealized drainage basins of different contributing areas, using contributing-area-specific estimates for channel slope and channel width. Our results show that FMACs of precipitation discharge are power-law functions of contributing area with an average exponent of 0.82 ± 0.06 for recurrence intervals from 10 to 500 years. We compare our FMACs to published FECs and find that for wet antecedent-moisture conditions, the 500-year FMAC of flood discharge in the UCRB is on par with the US FEC for contributing areas of ˜ 102 to 103 km2. FMACs of flood discharge for the LCRB exceed the published FEC for the LCRB for contributing areas in the range of ˜ 103 to 104 km2. The FMAC method retains the power of the FEC method for constraining flood hazards in basins that are ungauged or have short flood records, yet it has the added advantage that it includes recurrence-interval information necessary for estimating event probabilities.

  4. Verification of 1921 peak discharge at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington, using 2003 peak-discharge data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mastin, M.C.; Kresch, D.L.

    2005-01-01

    The 1921 peak discharge at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington (U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 12194000), was verified using peak-discharge data from the flood of October 21, 2003, the largest flood since 1921. This peak discharge is critical to determining other high discharges at the gaging station and to reliably estimating the 100-year flood, the primary design flood being used in a current flood study of the Skagit River basin. The four largest annual peak discharges of record (1897, 1909, 1917, and 1921) were used to determine the 100-year flood discharge at Skagit River near Concrete. The peak discharge on December 13, 1921, was determined by James E. Stewart of the U.S. Geological Survey using a slope-area measurement and a contracted-opening measurement. An extended stage-discharge rating curve based on the 1921 peak discharge was used to determine the peak discharges of the three other large floods. Any inaccuracy in the 1921 peak discharge also would affect the accuracies of the three other largest peak discharges. The peak discharge of the 1921 flood was recalculated using the cross sections and high-water marks surveyed after the 1921 flood in conjunction with a new estimate of the channel roughness coefficient (n value) based on an n-verification analysis of the peak discharge of the October 21, 2003, flood. The n value used by Stewart for his slope-area measurement of the 1921 flood was 0.033, and the corresponding calculated peak discharge was 240,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Determination of a single definitive water-surface profile for use in the n-verification analysis was precluded because of considerable variation in elevations of surveyed high-water marks from the flood on October 21, 2003. Therefore, n values were determined for two separate water-surface profiles thought to bracket a plausible range of water-surface slopes defined by high-water marks. The n value determined using the flattest plausible slope was 0

  5. NASA Administrator Dan Goldin greets 100-year-old VIP.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Astronaut Andy Thomas (left) greets 100-year-old Captain Ralph Charles, one of the VIPs attending the launch of STS-99. Charles also met NASA Administrator Dan Goldin. An aviator who has the distinction of being the oldest licensed pilot in the United States, Charles is still flying. He has experienced nearly a century of flight history, from the Wright Brothers to the Space Program. He took flying lessons from one of the first fliers trained by Orville Wright, first repaired then built airplanes, went barnstorming, operated a charter service in the Caribbean, and worked as a test pilot for the Curtiss Wright Airplane Co. Charles watches all the Shuttle launches from his home in Ohio and his greatest wish is to be able to watch one in person from KSC.

  6. Opening the 100-Year Window for Time-Domain Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grindlay, Jonathan; Tang, Sumin; Los, Edward; Servillat, Mathieu

    2012-04-01

    The large-scale surveys such as PTF, CRTS and Pan-STARRS-1 that have emerged within the past 5 years or so employ digital databases and modern analysis tools to accentuate research into Time Domain Astronomy (TDA). Preparations are underway for LSST which, in another 6 years, will usher in the second decade of modern TDA. By that time the Digital Access to a Sky Century @ Harvard (DASCH) project will have made available to the community the full sky Historical TDA database and digitized images for a century (1890-1990) of coverage. We describe the current DASCH development and some initial results, and outline plans for the ``production scanning'' phase and data distribution which is to begin in 2012. That will open a 100-year window into temporal astrophysics, revealing rare transients and (especially) astrophysical phenomena that vary on time-scales of a decade. It will also provide context and archival comparisons for the deeper modern surveys.

  7. 100 years of sedimentation study by the USGS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glysson, G. Douglas

    1989-01-01

    On January 15, 1889, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting sediment data on the Rio Grande at Embudo, New Mexico. During the past 100 years the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Resources Division (WRD) has collected daily sediment data at more than 1,200 sites. Projects have addressed the problems associated with reservoir construction, agricultural irrigation projects, energy production, and transport and deposition of pollutants sorbed to sediments. The Survey has been active as a charter member of the Federal Interagency Sediment Project and currently has three full-time hydrologists working on the project. The WRD's sediment-research projects have covered a wide variety of subjects from the fundamental theories of resistance to flow and sediment transport in alluvial channels to lunar erosion mechanisms.

  8. 100 years after Smoluchowski: stochastic processes in cell biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

    2017-03-01

    100 years after Smoluchowski introduced his approach to stochastic processes, they are now at the basis of mathematical and physical modeling in cellular biology: they are used for example to analyse and to extract features from a large number (tens of thousands) of single molecular trajectories or to study the diffusive motion of molecules, proteins or receptors. Stochastic modeling is a new step in large data analysis that serves extracting cell biology concepts. We review here Smoluchowski’s approach to stochastic processes and provide several applications for coarse-graining diffusion, studying polymer models for understanding nuclear organization and finally, we discuss the stochastic jump dynamics of telomeres across cell division and stochastic gene regulation.

  9. Flood of July 5-7, 1978, on the South Fork Zumbro River at Rochester, Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Latkovich, V.J.

    1979-01-01

    The intense thunderstorm of July 5-6, 1978, caused record flooding on the South Fork Zumbro River at Rochester, Minnesota. The peak discharge on July 6 was 30,500 cubic feet per second compared with 19,600 cubic feet per second for the flood of March 1965, which was the largest previously known. The 1965 flood had a recurrence interval of about 30 years, whereas the 1978 flood had a recurrence interval exceeding 100 years. The flood waters claimed at least 5 lives and 5,000 people were forced to leave their homes. Millions of dollars in flood damage was reported, and this report summarizes some of the flood data and a photomosaic map shows the inundated area.

  10. Estimates of peak flood discharge for 21 sites in the Front Range in Colorado in response to extreme rainfall in September 2013

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moody, John A.

    2016-03-21

    Extreme rainfall in September 2013 caused destructive floods in part of the Front Range in Boulder County, Colorado. Erosion from these floods cut roads and isolated mountain communities for several weeks, and large volumes of eroded sediment were deposited downstream, which caused further damage of property and infrastructures. Estimates of peak discharge for these floods and the associated rainfall characteristics will aid land and emergency managers in the future. Several methods (an ensemble) were used to estimate peak discharge at 21 measurement sites, and the ensemble average and standard deviation provided a final estimate of peak discharge and its uncertainty. Because of the substantial erosion and deposition of sediment, an additional estimate of peak discharge was made based on the flow resistance caused by sediment transport effects.Although the synoptic-scale rainfall was extreme (annual exceedance probability greater than 1,000 years, about 450 millimeters in 7 days) for these mountains, the resulting peak discharges were not. Ensemble average peak discharges per unit drainage area (unit peak discharge, [Qu]) for the floods were 1–2 orders of magnitude less than those for the maximum worldwide floods with similar drainage areas and had a wide range of values (0.21–16.2 cubic meters per second per square kilometer [m3 s-1 km-2]). One possible explanation for these differences was that the band of high-accumulation, high-intensity rainfall was narrow (about 50 kilometers wide), oriented nearly perpendicular to the predominant drainage pattern of the mountains, and therefore entire drainage areas were not subjected to the same range of extreme rainfall. A linear relation (coefficient of determination [R2]=0.69) between Qu and the rainfall intensity (ITc, computed for a time interval equal to the time-of-concentration for the drainage area upstream from each site), had the form: Qu=0.26(ITc-8.6), where the coefficient 0.26 can be considered to be an

  11. Paleoflood discharge reconstruction in Tatra Mountain streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Spyt, Barbara; Janecka, Karolina; Kaczka, Ryszard J.; Lempa, Michał

    2016-11-01

    Floods represent a common process in Tatra Mountain streams and may cause flood risk in the valleys of the Tatra foreland. Dealing with the hazards and risks caused by floods requires a detailed analysis of the frequency and magnitude of past and recent events. However, the Polish Tatra region is characterized by a scarcity of data on past floods in general and on systematic peak discharge in particular. In this study, we performed a paleohydrological analyses in four high-gradient mountain streams using scarred trees as paleostage indicators. We couple two-dimensional hydraulic modelling in a highly-resolved topographic environment (LiDAR data) with an important spatiotemporal data set of scars on trees to investigate (i) the magnitude of unrecorded major floods of the twentieth century, (ii) the effect of variability in geomorphic tree positions on the peak discharge reconstruction, and (iii) the impact of reconstructed events on the results of flood frequency analyses. The data set is based on a total of 55 scarred trees and allows peak discharge reconstruction of 16 major floods covering the last 113 years. Results suggest that trees growing in straight stream reaches or in the inner side of channel bends would be better candidates for peak discharge reconstructions than trees located on the outer side of channel bends or growing in overbank sections with dense vegetation cover. The largest reconstructed flood is dated to 1903 with an estimated peak discharge of 115.9 ± 59.2 m3 s- 1, and larger-than-today floods are found to have occurred at Strążyska and Łysa Polana in the first half of the twentieth century. The inclusion of our results into the flood frequency analyses suggests that flood hazards might have been underestimated by up to 25.5% in the case of a 100-year flood in Strążyski Stream. In that sense, our findings will be useful for the design of future strategies dealing with flood risks in the foreland of the Polish Tatra Mountains.

  12. A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.; ,

    1997-01-01

    We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V.D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether < ??? 1 or < ??? 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.We analyze a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a

  13. Slope restoration for a 100-year old canal

    SciTech Connect

    Skaggs, R.L.; Lewis, S.W.; Liebersbach, D.C.

    1995-12-31

    Turlock Irrigation District (TID) is located in the northern portion of the fertile San Joaquin Valley of California. TID`s primary water supply is conveyed from the 100-year-old LaGrange Diversion Dam via their historic Upper Main Canal. The original canal was constructed by excavating into slate bedrock for the uphill (cut) bank, and constructing unmortared rock walls and rock fill for the downhill (fill) embankment; the excavation was then lined with concrete. Soil fill raises of the downhill embankment over the last 30 years have reduced the slope stability to unacceptable levels in the steepest embankment areas. In March of 1994, two surficial slides prompted investigation of the long term embankment stability in the Warehouse Slide Area. Based on results of analysis for various stabilization scenarios, TID chose a stabilization method which included: (1) excavation of an access bench below the existing canal, (2) installation of steel pipe piles through the existing rock fill and into the bedrock, (3) construction of a mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) retaining wall and (4) construction of a soil-cement canal roadway pavement. The design was chosen by the owner because of cost competitiveness compared to other design alternatives and because the construction sequence allowed uninterrupted use of the canal. By using local river cobble for the MSE wall facing material, TID met the desired 50-year design life of the repair while maintaining the area`s historic visual features.

  14. Colloquium: 100 years of mass spectrometry: Perspectives and future trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maher, Simon; Jjunju, Fred P. M.; Taylor, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Mass spectrometry (MS) is widely regarded as the most sensitive and specific general purpose analytical technique. More than a century has passed for MS since the ground-breaking work of Nobel laureate Sir Joseph John Thomson in 1913. This Colloquium aims to (1) give an historical overview of the major instrumentation achievements that have driven mass spectrometry forward in the past century, including those leading up to the initial work of Thomson, (2) provide the nonspecialist with an introduction to MS, and (3) highlight some key applications of MS and explore the current and future trends. Because of the vastness of the subject area and quality of the manifold research efforts that have been undertaken over the last 100 years, which have contributed to the foundations and subsequent advances in mass spectrometry, it should be understood that not all of the key contributions may have been included in this Colloquium. Mass spectrometry has embraced a multitude of scientific disciplines and to recognize all of the achievements is an impossible task, such has been the diverse impact of this invaluable technique. Scientific progress is usually made via the cumulative effort of a large number of researchers; the achievements reported herein are only a representation of that effort.

  15. Pedernales oilfield, eastern Venezuela: The first 100 years

    SciTech Connect

    Gluyas, J.; Oliver, J.; Wilson, W.

    1996-08-01

    Petroleum seeps and surface tar mats attracted oil explorers to Pedernales in eastern Venezuela 100 years ago. Commercial production from the Pedernales Field was established by Creole in 1933. In three production periods, broken by WWII and the end of the Creole-Texaco refining contract, Creole and Lagoven produced about 60 MMSTB from about 60 wells in about 60 years. Peak production was in the late 1950s, when the field delivered 12,000 BOPD. Production was stopped in 1986. In March 1993, BP Venezuela acquired the license to reactivate Pedernales on behalf of Lagoven, and BP`s first well in the field was drilled in August 1994. A second was completed in early 1995. The production from each well was sufficiently encouraging for commerciality to be declared in March 1995. Phase 1 of the field reactivation demanded a production rate of 11,500 BOPD. As of now (September, 1995) six wells, including one gas disposal well, have been completed. Wells have been placed using a combination of old well data and mapping based on a close spaced 2D seismic survey shot in early 1994. Results from these first few wells indicate that the required production rate will be achieved despite severely depleted reservoir pressures. This paper tells the story of reactivation and re-evaluation of one of eastern Venezuela`s oldest oilfields.

  16. [Sheehan's syndrome--a forgotten disease with 100 years' history].

    PubMed

    Krysiak, Robert; Okopień, Bogusław

    2015-01-01

    Although named after Harold Sheehan, postpartum ischemic pituitary necrosis was reported for the first time 100 years ago in Przeglad Lekarski by Leon Konrad Gliński. In the majority of cases, the syndrome is a consequence of severe postpartum bleeding episode resulting in severe hypotension or hemorrhagic shock. The frequency of Sheehan's syndrome has decreased in developed countries as a result of improved obstetrical care, but this clinical entity remains a common cause of hypopituitarism in developing countries. The syndrome is characterized by varying degrees of anterior pituitary dysfunction resulting from the deficiency of multiple pituitary hormones. The order of frequency of hormone loss has generally been found to be growth hormone and prolactin, gonadotropins, ACTH and thyrotropin. Women with Sheehan's syndrome exhibit a variety of signs and symptoms including failure to lactate or resume menses, loss of genital and axillary hair, and often occurring long after delivery clinical manifestations of central hypothyroidism and secondary adrenal insufficiency. Diagnosis is based on laboratory studies, including hormone levels and hormone stimulation tests. Treatment of Sheehan's syndrome involves hormone replacement therapy. The aim of this study is to review current knowledge on clinically relevant aspects of this clinical entity and to provide the reader with recommendations concerning its diagnosis and treatment.

  17. Flood discharges of a small river into open coastal waters: Plume traits and material fate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaston, Troy F.; Schlacher, Thomas A.; Connolly, Rod M.

    2006-08-01

    The dynamics of plumes from large rivers are relatively well known. Many estuaries are small, however, and discharge directly onto exposed, open shorelines and presumably produce smaller plumes that may have different properties. Therefore this study measured traits of a small estuary on the Australian East Coast as a model system, focusing on (a) plume size, (b) distinctness of plume edges, and (c) imprints on the seafloor. Although plumes were found to be limited in spatial extent (ca. 1 km offshore × 2.4 km longshore) and were constrained near the shore by onshore winds, they exported high nutrient loads from an urbanised watershed. The small plumes were shallow (<2 m) and strongly buoyant, with sharp vertical and horizontal clines similar to much larger plumes. The edges of the plumes were highly distinct, clearly separating disparate water masses that trapped significantly higher amounts of nutrients inside the plume. Some particulate material exported from the estuary in the plumes reached the benthos of the nearshore zone, as evidenced by increases in copper concentrations in sediments under the plume. By contrast, the amount of land-sourced carbon delivered by small plumes to the seafloor was minor in comparison to larger inputs from marine sources (e.g. onshore advection of phytoplankton blooms or algae dislodged from reefs) that swamped any contribution from plumes. Overall, small plumes can be important in land-ocean coupling, but their zone of influence may be limited.

  18. Measuring flood discharge in unstable stream channels using ground-penetrating radar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spicer, K.R.; Costa, J.E.; Placzek, G.

    1997-01-01

    Field experiments were conducted to test the ability of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) to measure stream-channel cross sections at high flows without the necessity of placing instruments in the water. Experiments were conducted at four U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in southwest Washington State. With the GPR antenna suspended above the water surface from a bridge or cableway, traverses were made across stream channels to collect radar profile plots of the streambed. Subsequent measurements of water depth were made using conventional depth-measuring equipment (weight and tape) and were used to calculate radar signal velocities. Other streamflow-parameter data were collected to examine their relation to radar signal velocity and to claritv of streambed definition. These initial tests indicate that GPR is capable of producing a reasonably accurate (??20%) stream-channel profile and discharge far more quickly than conventional stream-gaging procedures, while avoiding the problems and hazards associated with placing instruments in the water.

  19. A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walder, J.S.

    1997-01-01

    We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/ D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?? > 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

  20. Flood-plain delineation for Occoquan River, Wolf Run, Sandy Run, Elk Horn Run, Giles Run, Kanes Creek, Racoon Creek, and Thompson Creek, Fairfax County, Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Soule, Pat LeRoy

    1978-01-01

    Water-surface profiles of the 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval discharges have been computed for all streams and reaches of channels in Fairfax County, Virginia, having a drainage area greater than 1 square mile except for Dogue Creek, Little Hunting Creek, and that portion of Cameron Run above Lake Barcroft. Maps having a 2-foot contour interval and a horizontal scale of 1 inch equals 100 feet were used for base on which flood boundaries were delineated for 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods to be expected in each basin under ultimate development conditions. This report is one of a series and presents a discussion of techniques employed in computing discharges and profiles as well as the flood profiles and maps on which flood boundaries have been delineated for the Occoquan River and its tributaries within Fairfax County and those streams on Mason Neck within Fairfax County tributary to the Potomac River. (Woodard-USGS)

  1. Reduction of the uncertainties in the water level-discharge relation of a 1D hydraulic model in the context of operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Habert, J.; Ricci, S.; Le Pape, E.; Thual, O.; Piacentini, A.; Goutal, N.; Jonville, G.; Rochoux, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a data-driven hydrodynamic simulator based on the 1-D hydraulic solver dedicated to flood forecasting with lead time of an hour up to 24 h. The goal of the study is to reduce uncertainties in the hydraulic model and thus provide more reliable simulations and forecasts in real time for operational use by the national hydrometeorological flood forecasting center in France. Previous studies have shown that sequential assimilation of water level or discharge data allows to adjust the inflows to the hydraulic network resulting in a significant improvement of the discharge while leaving the water level state imperfect. Two strategies are proposed here to improve the water level-discharge relation in the model. At first, a modeling strategy consists in improving the description of the river bed geometry using topographic and bathymetric measurements. Secondly, an inverse modeling strategy proposes to locally correct friction coefficients in the river bed and the flood plain through the assimilation of in situ water level measurements. This approach is based on an Extended Kalman filter algorithm that sequentially assimilates data to infer the upstream and lateral inflows at first and then the friction coefficients. It provides a time varying correction of the hydrological boundary conditions and hydraulic parameters. The merits of both strategies are demonstrated on the Marne catchment in France for eight validation flood events and the January 2004 flood event is used as an illustrative example throughout the paper. The Nash-Sutcliffe criterion for water level is improved from 0.135 to 0.832 for a 12-h forecast lead time with the data assimilation strategy. These developments have been implemented at the SAMA SPC (local flood forecasting service in the Haute-Marne French department) and used for operational forecast since 2013. They were shown to provide an efficient tool for evaluating flood risk and to improve the flood early warning system

  2. The Bosna River floods in May 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Globevnik, Lidija; Koprivšek, Maja; Sečnik, Matej; Zabret, Katarina; Đurović, Blažo; Anzeljc, Darko; Kastelic, Janez; Kobold, Mira; Sušnik, Mojca; Borojevič, Darko; Kupusović, Tarik; Kupusović, Esena; Vihar, Anja; Brilly, Mitja

    2016-10-01

    In May 2014, extreme floods occurred in the lower Sava River basin, causing major damage, with catastrophic consequences. Based on the data gathered, the weather situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) Bosna River basin was analysed and the hydrological conditions were provided, including the results of the probability analysis of the size of the recorded precipitation and flow rates. According to the observed data, extremely high precipitation intensities produced specific discharges of 1.0 m3 s-1 km-2. A hydrological model of the Bosna River basin was developed using HBV light for the purposes of reconstructing and forecasting such events more effectively. All analyses confirmed that the May 2014 event was an extreme extraordinary event whose return period greatly exceeds 100 years. The study is the basis for further flood safety measures and flood forecast development in the Bosna River basin.

  3. Annual peak discharges from small drainage areas in Montana through September 1976

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, M.V.; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

    1977-01-01

    Annual peak discharge from small drainage areas is tabulated for 336 sites in Montana. The 1976 additions included data collected at 206 sites. The program which investigates the magnitude and frequency of floods from small drainage areas in Montana, was begun July 1, 1955. Originally 45 crest-stage gaging stations were established. The purpose of the program is to collect sufficient peak-flow data, which through analysis could provide methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at any point in Montana. The ultimate objective is to provide methods for estimating the 100-year flood with the reliability needed for road design. (Woodard-USGS)

  4. Groundwater discharge to wetlands driven by storm and flood events: Quantification using continuous Radon-222 and electrical conductivity measurements and dynamic mass-balance modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilfedder, B. S.; Frei, S.; Hofmann, H.; Cartwright, I.

    2015-09-01

    The dynamic response of groundwater discharge to external influences such as rainfall is an often neglected part of water and solute balances in wetlands. Here we develop a new field platform for long-term continuous 222Rn and electrical conductivity (EC) measurements at Sale Wetland, Australia to study the response of groundwater discharge to storm and flood events. The field measurements, combined with dynamic mass-balance modelling, demonstrate that the groundwater flux can increase from 3 to ∼20 mm d-1 following storms and up to 5 mm d-1 on the receding limb of floods. The groundwater pulses are likely produced by activation of local groundwater flow paths by water ponding on the surrounding flood plains. While 222Rn is a sensitive tracer for quantifying transient groundwater discharge, the mass-balance used to estimate fluxes is sensitive to parameterisation of gas exchange (k) with the atmosphere. Comparison of six equations for calculating k showed that, based on parameterisation of k alone, the groundwater flux estimate could vary by 58%. This work shows that neglecting transient processes will lead to errors in water and solute flux estimates based on infrequent point measurements. This could be particularly important for surface waters connected to contaminated or saline groundwater systems.

  5. Magnitude and frequency of floods in western Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, David Dell; Hubbard, Larry L.; Hubbard, Lawrence E.

    1979-01-01

    A method for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods is presented for unregulated streams in western Oregon. Equations relating flood magnitude to basin characteristics were developed for exceedance probabilities of 0.5 to 0.01 (2- to 100-year recurrence intervals). Separate equations are presented for four regions: Coast, Willamette, Rogue-Umpqua, and High Cascades. Also presented are values of flood discharges for selected exceedance probabilities and of basin characteristics for all gaging stations used in the analysis. Included are data for 230 stations in Oregon, 6 stations in southwestern Washington, and 3 stations in northwestern California. Drainage areas used in the analysis range from 0.21 to 7,280 square miles. Also included are maximum discharges for all western Oregon stations used in the analysis. (Woodard-USGS)

  6. June 2002 floods in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiche, Gregg J.; Guttormson, K.G.; Robinson, S.M.; Mitton, G.B.; Bramer, B.J.

    2002-01-01

    Historical peak stages and peak discharges and the June 2002 peak stages, peak discharges, and recurrence intervals are shown in table 1.  The streamflow-gaging stations are listed in downstream order by station number, and station locations are shown in figure 1.  The June 2002 peak stages and peak discharges given in this preliminary report may be revised as site surveys are completed and additional field data are reviewed in the upcoming months.  The peak discharges are used to determine the probability, often expressed in recurrence intervals, that a given discharge will be exceeded in the future.  For example, a flood that has a 1-percent chance of exceedance in any given year would, on the long-term average, be expected to occur only about once a century; therefore, the flood would be termed a "100-year flood."  However, the chance of such a flood occurring in any given year is 1 percent.  Thus, a 100-year flood can occur in successive years at the same location.  In some instances, recurrence interval estimates can be based on periods of regulated flow or made with historic adjustments when historic data are available.

  7. Flood potential of Topopah Wash and tributaries, eastern part of Jackass Flats, Nevada Test Site, southern Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christensen, Rulon C.; Spahr, Norman E.

    1980-01-01

    Guidelines for the evaluation of potential surface facilities for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes on the Nevada Test Site in southern Nevada include the consideration of the potential for flooding. Those floods that are considered to constitute the principal flood hazards for these facilities are the 100- and 500-year floods, and the maximum potential flood. Flood-prone areas for the three floods with present natural-channel conditions were defined for the eastern part of Jackass Flats in the southwestern part of the Nevada Test Site. The 100-year flood-prone areas would closely parallel most stream channels with very few occurrences of overland flooding between adjacent channels. The 500-year flood and the maximum potential flood would exceed the discharge capacities of main channels and cause overland flooding between adjacent channels throughout most of the study area. Excluded areas would be those located immediately east of the upstream reach of Topopah Wash and between upstream channel reaches of some tributaries. Floodflow characteristics for the three floods were determined at 47 cross sections. The magnitudes of the estimated velocities indicate severe erosion of channels and flood plains would occur in parts of the study area. (USGS)

  8. Flood of June 14-15, 1990, in Belmont, Jefferson, and Harrison counties, Ohio, with emphasis on Pipe and Wegee Creek basins near Shadyside

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shindel, H.L.

    1991-01-01

    A series of violent thunderstorms caused severe floods and consequent damage in the central part of Ohio during June 14-15, 1990. The eastern part of the State, particularly Belmont, Harrison, and Jefferson Counties, sustained the most damage. In the Pipe and Wegee Creek basins near Shadyside, Belmont County, at least 24 people died and property damage exceeded $10 million. An indirect measurement of discharge on Pipe Creek made near the mouth, indicates a peak discharge of 15,000 ft? /s (cubic feet per second) for the drainage area of 11.3 mi? (square miles) and a unit discharge of 1,330 (ft? /s)/mi? (cubic feet per second per square mile). The recurrence interval for this peak discharge is greater than 100 years. An indirect measurement of discharge of Wegee Creek, made 3 miles upstream from the mouth, indicates a peak discharge of 2,200 (ft? /s) /mi? . The recurrence interval for this peak discharge also is greater than 100 years. Longitudal water-surface profiles showed depths ranging from 7 ft. to 22 ft. The severity of flooding was highly variable. For example, the recurrence interval of the peak discharge at one U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station was only 2 years, whereas the recurrence interval for the peak discharge was greater than 100 years at another gaging station about 22 miles away.

  9. Floods of December 1966 in southwestern Utah

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Butler, Elmer; Mundorff, J.C.

    1970-01-01

    Severe floods occurred in parts of southwestern Utah on December 5-6, 1966, as a result of precipitation of about 1 inch to more than 12 inches during December 3-6. The flood on the Virgin River was the greatest since the first settlers arrived in 1860. The peak discharge of the Virgin River at Virgin, Utah, was 22,830 cubic feet per second on December 6; this exceeded the previous maximum discharge of 13,500 cubic feet per second on March 3, 1938, and September 17, 1961, and probably has a recurrence interval of 100 years. At eight other gage sites in the flood area, the peak discharge in December 1966 was the highest of record; the recurrence intervals of some of the peak discharges may be 100 years. The flood peaks were generally of short duration and most streams receded to near base flow within 24 hours. The dissolved-solids content was significantly lower in the Virgin River at Virgin than at St. George, about 25 miles downstream; the water was of the calcium sulfate type at both sites. Data for the Santa Clara River above Winsor Dam and the Santa Clara River near Santa Clara show a significant increase in dissolved solids between the two sites. The water above Winsor Dam was of the calcium bicarbonate type, and the water near Santa Clara was of the calcium bicarbonate sulfate type. The suspended-sediment discharge, during the period December 5-8, 1966, at Santa Clara River above Winsor Dam, near Santa Clara was about foyer times greater than all the suspended-sediment discharge during the preceding 3 years ; the suspended-sediment discharge of the Virgin River at Virgin was greater during the 4-day period than during any one of the preceding 3 years. Nearly all the flood damage in the area occurred in the Virgin River basin. According to the Soil Conservation Service, total damage in the Dixie Soil Conservation District in Washington County was about $835,000; 60 percent of the damage was caused by floodwater and 40 percent by deposited sediment.

  10. Technique for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Delaware

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simmons, R.H.; Carpenter, D.H.

    1978-01-01

    A flood-estimating method is presented which applies to drainage basins in Delaware without urban development and covers selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 100 years. The method was developed by multiple-regression techniques. The State is divided into two regions and sets of equations for calculating peak discharges based on physical basin characteristics are provided for each region. The boundary between regions generally corresponds with the division between the Piedmont and Coastal Plain provinces. In the northern region, flood-peak discharges were related to basin drainage area and storage. In the southern region, flood peaks were related to drainage area, slope, storage, forest cover, and two composite soil categories. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations in the northern region ranged from 30 to 39 percent. For the southern region, the standard errors of estimate varied from 38 to 40 percent. Without using the two soil parameters in the southern region, the standard errors of estimate varied from 57 to 70 percent. Annual flood peaks, basin characteristics, and flood-frequency distributions are tabulated for the 60-gaged sites used in the regression analysis. At 23 of these sites, a rainfall-runoff model generated additional flood-peak data which were used in defining the flood-frequency distributions. (Woodard-USGS)

  11. Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plank, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate and land use changes are altering global, regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, past events may not accurately represent the events that will occur in the future. Methods for hydrologic prediction, both statistical and deterministic, require adequate data for calibration. Streamflow gauges tend to be located on large rivers. As a result, statistical flood frequency analysis, which relies on gauge data, is biased towards large watersheds. Conversely, the complexity of parameterizing watershed processes in deterministic hydrological models limits these to small watersheds. Spatial scaling relationships between drainage basin area and discharge can be used to bridge these two methodologies and provide new approaches to hydrologic prediction. The relationship of discharge (Q) to drainage basin area (A) can be expressed as a power function: Q = αAθ. This study compares scaling exponents (θ) and coefficients (α) for floods of varying magnitude across a selection of major Atlantic Coast watersheds. Comparisons are made by normalizing flood discharges to a reference area bankfull discharge for each watershed. These watersheds capture the geologic and geomorphic transitions along the Atlantic Coast from narrow bedrock-dominated river valleys to wide coastal plain watersheds. Additionally, there is a range of hydrometeorological events that cause major floods in these basins including tropical storms, thunderstorm systems and winter-spring storms. The mix of flood-producing events changes along a gradient as well, with tropical storms and hurricanes increasing in dominance from north to south as a significant cause of major floods. Scaling exponents and coefficients were determined for both flood quantile estimates (e.g. 1.5-, 10-, 100-year floods) and selected hydrometeorological events (e.g. hurricanes, summer thunderstorms, winter-spring storms). Initial results indicate that southern coastal plain watersheds have lower scaling exponents (θ) than

  12. Prediction of a Flash Flood in Complex Terrain. Part II: A Comparison of Flood Discharge Simulations Using Rainfall Input from Radar, a Dynamic Model, and an Automated Algorithmic System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yates, David N.; Warner, Thomas T.; Leavesley, George H.

    2000-06-01

    Three techniques were employed for the estimation and prediction of precipitation from a thunderstorm that produced a flash flood in the Buffalo Creek watershed located in the mountainous Front Range near Denver, Colorado, on 12 July 1996. The techniques included 1) quantitative precipitation estimation using the National Weather Service's Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler and the National Center for Atmospheric Research's S-band, dual-polarization radars, 2) quantitative precipitation forecasting utilizing a dynamic model, and 3) quantitative precipitation forecasting using an automated algorithmic system for tracking thunderstorms. Rainfall data provided by these various techniques at short timescales (6 min) and at fine spatial resolutions (150 m to 2 km) served as input to a distributed-parameter hydrologic model for analysis of the flash flood. The quantitative precipitation estimates from the weather radar demonstrated their ability to aid in simulating a watershed's response to precipitation forcing from small-scale, convective weather in complex terrain. That is, with the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates employed as input, the simulated peak discharge was similar to that estimated. The dynamic model showed the most promise in providing a significant forecast lead time for this flash-flood event. The algorithmic system did not show as much skill in comparison with the dynamic model in providing precipitation forcing to the hydrologic model. The discharge forecasts based on the dynamic-model and algorithmic-system inputs point to the need to improve the ability to forecast convective storms, especially if models such as these eventually are to be used in operational flood forecasting.

  13. Flood of August 27-28, 1977, West Cache Creek and Blue Beaver Creek, southwestern Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Corley, Robert K.; Huntzinger, Thomas L.

    1979-01-01

    This report documents a major storm which occurred August 27-28, 1977, in southwest Oklahoma near the communities of Cache and Faxon, OK. Blue Beaver Creek and West Cache Creek and their tributaries experienced extensive flooding that caused an estimated $1 million in damages. Reported rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches in 6 hours indicate the storm had a frequency in excess of the 100-year rainfall. Peak discharges on Blue Beaver Creek near Cache and West Cache Creek near Faxon were 13,500 cubic feet per second and 45,700 cubic feet per second respectively. The estimated flood frequency was in excess of 100 years on Blue Beaver Creek and in excess of 50 years on West Cache Creek. Unit runoff on small basins were in excess of 2000 cubic feet per second per square mile. Surveyed highwater marks were used to map the flooded area. (USGS)

  14. Upper limits of flash flood stream power in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchi, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Marco; Amponsah, William; Borga, Marco; Crema, Stefano

    2016-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by strong spatial gradients of rainfall inputs that hit different parts of a river basin with different intensity. Stream power values associated with flash floods therefore show spatial variations that depend on geological controls on channel geometry and sediment characteristics, as well as on the variations of flood intensity: this stresses the need for a field approach that takes into account the variability of the controlling factors. Post-flood assessment of peak discharge after major floods makes it possible to analyse stream power in fluvial systems affected by flash floods. This study analyses the stream power of seven intense (return period of rainfall > 100 years at least in some sectors of the river basin) flash floods that occurred in mountainous basins of central and southern Europe from 2007 to 2014. In most of the analysed cross sections, high values of unit stream power were observed; this is consistent with the high severity of the studied floods. The highest values of cross-sectional stream power and unit stream power usually occur in Mediterranean regions. This is mainly ascribed to the larger peak discharges that characterize flash floods in these regions. The variability of unit stream power with catchment area is clearly nonlinear and has been represented by log-quadratic relations. The values of catchment area at which maximum values of unit stream power occur show relevant differences among the studied floods and are linked to the spatial scale of the events. Values of stream power are generally consistent with observed geomorphic changes in the studied cross sections: bedrock channels show the highest values of unit stream power but no visible erosion, whereas major erosion has been observed in alluvial channels. Exceptions to this general pattern, which mostly occur in semi-alluvial cross sections, urge the recognition of local or event-specific conditions that increase the resistance of channel bed and

  15. Floods in Kansas City, Missouri and vicinity, August 12-13, 1982

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Becker, L.D.; Alexander, T.W.; Waite, L.A.

    1983-01-01

    On August 12-13, 1982, a nearly stationary weather front in the vicinity of Kansas City, MO, produced intense thunderstorms. Excessive rainfall (12.6 inches in Raytown, MO) caused flash flooding during the nighttime and early daylight hours. Four deaths and damages unofficially estimated in excess of $30 million, occurred in the three-county area of Jackson, Cass, and Clay counties. Peak discharges were determined at 12 current or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations and 17 miscellaneous sites. Flood peaks and volumes at many locations exceeded estimated 100-year recurrence-interval floods and equaled or exceeded the 1977 floods in some drainage basins. Significant flooding occurred in the Blue, East Fork Little Blue, and Little Blue River basins and in the Rock, Wilkerson, Sni-A-Bar, Shoal, and Big Creek drainage basins. (USGS)

  16. Delineation of flooding within the upper Mississippi River Basin, flood of July 10 and 27, 1993, in Kansas City Missouri, and Kansas City, Kansas, and vicinity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Charles A.; Clement, Ralph W.; Studley, Seth E.

    1997-01-01

    During spring and summer 1993, record flooding inundated many of the stream and river valleys in the upper Mississippi and the Missouri River Basins. The flooding was the result of widespread and numerous intense thunderstorms that, together with saturated soils, produced large volumes of runoff. The magnitude of flooding exceeded the 100-year discharge values (1-percent chance of exceedance in any given year) at many streamflow-gaging stations in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The flooding was unusual because of its long duration and widespread severe damage. The Mississippi and the Missouri Rivers were above flood stage for more than 1 month at several locations along their lengths. Millions of acres of agricultural and urban lands were inundated for weeks, and unofficial damage estimates exceeded $10 billion in the flooded States (Parrett and others, 1993),During summer 1993, large parts of Kansas City, Missouri, and Kansas City, Kansas, and vicinity were flooded from overflows of the Missouri and the Kansas Rivers and numerous smaller tributaries, This report provides flood-peak elevation data and delineates the arcalcktent of the 1993 floods in the Kansas City metropolitan area for July 10 and 27, 1993 (fig. 1A, sheet 1: B, sheet 2: C, sheet 3). The 1993 flood elevations and extent of flooding are compared with flood-plain boundaries defined by Flood Insurance Studies conducted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for cities and counties in the area (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 1975–95).This report is one of a series of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) investigations that document the effects of the 1993 flooding of the upper Mississippi and the Missouri River Basins and that improve the technical base from which flood-plain management decisions can be made by other agencies.

  17. Flood of May 23, 2004, in the Turkey and Maquoketa River basins, northeast Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eash, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Severe flooding occurred on May 23, 2004, in the Turkey River Basin in Clayton County and in the Maquoketa River Basin in Delaware County following intense thunderstorms over northeast Iowa. Rain gages at Postville and Waucoma, Iowa, recorded 72-hour rainfall of 6.32 and 6.55 inches, respectively, on May 23. Unofficial rainfall totals of 8 to 10 inches were reported in the Turkey River Basin. The peak discharge on May 23 at the Turkey River at Garber streamflow-gaging station was 66,700 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) and is the largest flood on record in the Turkey River Basin. The timing of flood crests on the Turkey and Volga Rivers, and local tributaries, coincided to produce a record flood on the lower part of the Turkey River. Three large floods have occurred at the Turkey River at Garber gaging station in a 13-year period. Peak discharges of the floods of June 1991 and May 1999 were 49,900 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 150 years) and 53,900 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 220 years), respectively. The peak discharge on May 23 at the Maquoketa River at Manchester gaging station was 26,000 cubic feet per second (recurrence interval about 100 years) and is the largest known flood in the upper part of the Maquoketa River Basin.

  18. Flooding in southeastern United States from tropical storm Alberto, July 1994

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stamey, T.C.; ,

    1997-01-01

    In July 1994, parts of central and southwestern Georgia, southeastern Albama, and the western panhandle of Florida were devastated by floods resulting from rainfall produced by Tropical Storm Alberto. Entire communities were inundated by flood waters as numerous streams reached peak stages and discharges far greater than previous floods in the Flint, Ocmulgee, and Choctawhatchee River basins. The flooding resulted in 33 deaths in towns and small communities along or near the overflowing streams. President Clinton declared 78 counties as Federal disaster areas; 55 in Georgia, 10 in Alabama, and 13 in Florida. The Flint River and Ocmulgee River basins in Georgi experienced floods that exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval discharge along almost their entire lengths. Travel was disrupted as railroad and highway bridges and culverts were overtopped and, in many cases, washed out. Total food damages to public and private property were estimated at near $1 billion dollars. The destruction caused by this storm serves to emphasize the high cost imposed upon life and property by flood disasters; and thus, highlight the importance of preparing for, monitoring, and documenting such occurrences.In July 1994, parts of central and southwestern Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and the western panhandle of Florida were devastated by floods resulting from rainfall produced by Tropical Storm Alberto. Entire communities were inundated by flood waters as numerous streams reached peak stages and discharges far greater than previous floods in the Flint, Ocmulgee, and Choctawhatchee River basins. The flooding resulted in 33 deaths in towns and small communities along or near the overflowing streams. President Clinton declared 78 counties as Federal disaster areas: 55 in Georgia, 10 in Alabama, and 13 in Florida. The Flint River and Ocmulgee River basins in Georgia experienced floods that exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval discharge along almost their entire lengths. Travel was

  19. Flood Magnitude and Frequency of the Delaware River in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schopp, Robert D.; Firda, Gary D.

    2008-01-01

    From September 2004 to June 2006, the Delaware River in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania experienced three major floods that caused extensive damage. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) needed updated information on the flood magnitude and frequency for the eight active streamflow-gaging stations along the main stem Delaware River in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania that included the three recent floods in order to update its flood insurance studies. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) computed updated flood magnitude and frequency values following the guidelines published by the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data in its Bulletin 17B. The updated flood-frequency values indicate that the recurrence interval of the September 2004 flood ranged from 20 to 35 years, the recurrence interval of the April 2005 flood ranged from 40 to 70 years, and the recurrence interval of the June 2006 flood ranged from 70 to greater than 100 years. Examination of trends in flood discharges indicate no statistically significant trends in peak flows during the period of record for any of the eight streamflow-gaging stations.

  20. Flood-inundation maps for the Tippecanoe River at Winamac, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Menke, Chad D.; Bunch, Aubrey R.

    2015-09-25

    For this study, flood profiles were computed for the Tippecanoe River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relations at the Tippecanoe River streamgage, in combination with the current (2014) Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-insurance study for Pulaski County. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood stage (flood with recurrence intervals within 100 years) has not been determined yet for this streamgage location. The rating has not been developed for the 1-percent AEP because the streamgage dates to only 2001. The simulated water-surface profiles were then used with a geographic information system (GIS) digital elevation model (DEM, derived from Light Detection and Ranging [lidar]) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with Internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage 03331753, Tippecanoe River at Winamac, Ind., and forecast stream stages from the NWS AHPS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

  1. Building a flood climatology and rethinking flood risk at continental scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos; Schumann, Guy; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Smith, Andrew; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Sampson, Christopher; Brakenridge, Robert; Kettner, Albert

    2016-04-01

    Floods are one of the costliest natural disasters and the ability to understand their characteristics and their interactions with population, land cover and climate changes is of paramount importance. In order to accurately reproduce flood characteristics such as water inundation and heights both in the river channels and floodplains, hydrodynamic models are required. Most of these models operate at very high resolutions and are computationally very expensive, making their application over large areas very difficult. However, a need exists for such models to be applied at regional to global scales so that the effects of climate change with regards to flood risk can be examined. We use the a modeling framework that includes the VIC hydrologic and the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to simulate a 40-year history of flood characteristics at the continental scale, particularly Australia. In order to extend the simulated flood climatology to 50-100 years in a consistent manner, reanalysis datasets have to be used as meteorological forcings to the models. The objective of this study is the evaluation of multiple atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA, NCEP, MERRA, JRA) as inputs to the VIC/LISFLOOD-FP model. Comparisons of the simulated flood characteristics are made with both satellite observations of inundation and a benchmark simulation of LISFLOOD-FP being forced by observed flows. The implications of having a climatology of flood characteristics are discussed, and in particular We found the magnitude and timing of floodplain water storage to significantly differ from streamflow in terms of their distribution. Furthermore, floodplain volume gave a much sharper discrimination of high hazard and low hazard periods than discharge, and using the latter can lead to significant overestimation. These results demonstrate that global streamflow statistics or precipitation should not be used to infer flood hazard and risk, but instead a flood inundation climatology is necessary.

  2. Preliminary estimation of the peak discharge at the Su Gologone spring (Central-East Sardinia) during the flood event of November 18th, 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cossu, Antonello; De Waele, Jo; Sanna, Francesco; Sanna, Laura

    2014-05-01

    Last November 2013, an exceptional rainfall has occurred in Sardinia causing 18 casualties at Olbia and Bitti and severe economic damage to infrastructures and land in many areas (e.g. Torpè and Cedrino plains). From a meteorological point of view, this rainfall event was caused by south-western warm and humid air currents moving from Africa coming in contact with cold air masses located above the higher parts of the island, creating convective phenomena of a certain intensity. Estimating the peak discharge of the rivers related to these high intensity rainfall events is of fundamental importance to improve flood-risk management and to prevent and/or reduce the damages. In carbonate areas, quantifying the karst aquifer recharge is an even more difficult task due to the fact that the precipitation and resulting surface flow is rapidly transferred to the underground cave systems, and then suddenly released at karst outflows. We report the case of the Su Gologone spring, in Supramonte area (Central-East Sardinia, Italy), a karst resurgence located only twenty metres from the Cedrino river and one of the main water supplies to this river. The freshwater of this karst spring feeds the Preda 'e Othoni dam, located a few kilometres downstream of the resurgence, and originally built to regulate the flooding of Cedrino river but currently used for all sorts of purposes, as electricity supply, irrigation of farmlands, industrial uses and especially for drinking water, an important source that has to be quantified and preserved. With the purpose of evaluating the contribution of this karst spring to the river discharge, at the beginning of the hydrological year 2013-14, Su Gologone has been equipped with a multi-parametric probe for in-continuous monitoring, at regular intervals, of the values of pressure (and therefore the level of water), electrical conductivity and water temperature. During the entire monitoring period flow rate measurements have been performed three

  3. Flood characteristics for the New River in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiley, J.B.; Cunningham, M.K.

    1994-01-01

    The frequency and magnitude of flooding of the New River in the New River Gorge National River was studied. A steady-state, one-dimensional flow model was applied to the study reach. Rating curves, cross sections, and Manning's roughness coefficients that were used are presented in this report. Manning's roughness coefficients were evaluated by comparing computed elevations (from application of the steady-state, one-dimensional flow model) to rated elevations at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and miscellaneous-rating sites. Manning's roughness coefficients ranged from 0.030 to 0.075 and varied with hydraulic depth. The 2-, 25-, and 100-year flood discharges were esti- mated on the basis of information from flood- insurance studies of Summers County, Fayette County, and the city of Hinton, and flood-frequency analysis of discharge records for the USGS streamflow-gaging stations at Hinton and Thurmond. The 100-year discharge ranged from 107,000 cubic feet per second at Hinton to 150,000 cubic feet per second at Fayette.

  4. From Anzac to Afghanistan: have 100 years taught us nothing about the devastation of war?

    PubMed

    Carragee, Eugene J

    2015-12-01

    Commentary On: Atkinson Brigadier (Ret'd) RN, Fraser RD. 100 years-Anzac, Vietnam to now. Spine J 2015:15:2454-6 (in this issue). Robertson PA. Gallipoli 100 years on: a New Zealand perspective. Spine J 2015:15:2457-8 (in this issue).

  5. Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge and Maximum Observed Peak Discharge in New Mexico and Surrounding Areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waltemeyer, Scott D.

    2008-01-01

    (mean value is 62, and median value is 59) for the 100-year flood. The 1996 investigation standard error of prediction for the flood regions ranged from 41 to 96 percent (mean value is 67, and median value is 68) for the 100-year flood that was analyzed by using generalized least-squares regression analysis. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are more reliable than those in the 1996 report because of the increased length of record and improved geographic information system (GIS) method to determine basin and climatic characteristics. Flood-frequency estimates can be made for ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations by using a method that transfers flood-frequency data at the gaging station to the ungaged site by using a drainage-area ratio adjustment equation. The peak discharge for a given recurrence interval at the gaging station, drainage-area ratio, and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region is used to transfer the peak discharge for the recurrence interval to the ungaged site. Maximum observed peak discharge as related to drainage area was determined for New Mexico. Extreme events are commonly used in the design and appraisal of bridge crossings and other structures. Bridge-scour evaluations are commonly made by using the 500-year peak discharge for these appraisals. Peak-discharge data collected at 293 gaging stations and 367 miscellaneous sites were used to develop a maximum peak-discharge relation as an alternative method of estimating peak discharge of an extreme event such as a maximum probable flood.

  6. Technique for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Land, Larry F.; Schroeder, Elmer E.; Hampton, B.B.

    1982-01-01

    Equations for predicting the magnitude and frequency of floods in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area were developed from recorded data from streams with drainage areas ranging in size from 1.25 to 66.4 square miles. The U. S. Geological Survey urban rainfall-runoff model was used to generate long-term flood-discharge record for gaged streams in the area. Simulated and recorded annual-peak data were subjected independently to log Pearson III frequency analyses. The results were weighted to determine appropriate discharges for selected 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. These T-year values were then used as the dependent variables in a multiple regression analysis. The independent variable determined to be statistically significant and retained in the resulting equations were drainage area and an urbanization index that expresses the degree of urban development. Analysis of the results shows that a land-use change from rural to fully urbanized is accompanied by a 180% increase in discharge of a flood with a 5-year recurrence interval and about 100% increase in discharge of a flood with a 100-year recurrence interval. 

  7. Role of electrical resistance of electrodes in modeling of discharging and charging of flooded lead-acid batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gandhi, K. S.

    2015-03-01

    Electrical resistance of both the electrodes of a lead-acid battery increases during discharge due to formation of lead sulfate, an insulator. Work of Metzendorf [1] shows that resistance increases sharply at about 65% conversion of active materials, and battery stops discharging once this critical conversion is reached. However, these aspects are not incorporated into existing mathematical models. Present work uses the results of Metzendorf [1], and develops a model that includes the effect of variable resistance. Further, it uses a reasonable expression to account for the decrease in active area during discharge instead of the empirical equations of previous work. The model's predictions are compared with observations of Cugnet et al. [2]. The model is as successful as the non-mechanistic models existing in literature. Inclusion of variation in resistance of electrodes in the model is important if one of the electrodes is a limiting reactant. If active materials are stoichiometrically balanced, resistance of electrodes can be very large at the end of discharge but has only a minor effect on charging of batteries. The model points to the significance of electrical conductivity of electrodes in the charging of deep discharged batteries.

  8. Simulation of water-surface elevations for a hypothetical 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Berenbrock, C.; Kjelstrom, L.C.

    1997-10-01

    Delineation of areas at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory that would be inundated by a 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek is needed by the US Department of Energy to fulfill flood-plain regulatory requirements. Birch Creek flows southward about 40 miles through an alluvium-filled valley onto the northern part of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental laboratory site on the eastern Snake River Plain. The lower 10-mile reach of Birch Creek that ends in Birch Creek Playa near several Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory facilities is of particular concern. Twenty-six channel cross sections were surveyed to develop and apply a hydraulic model to simulate water-surface elevations for a hypothetical 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek. Model simulation of the 100-year peak flow (700 cubic feet per second) in reaches upstream from State Highway 22 indicated that flow was confined within channels even when all flow was routed to one channel. Where the highway crosses Birch Creek, about 315 cubic feet per second of water was estimated to move downstream--115 cubic feet per second through a culvert and 200 cubic feet per second over the highway. Simulated water-surface elevation at this crossing was 0.8 foot higher than the elevation of the highway. The remaining 385 cubic feet per second flowed southwestward in a trench along the north side of the highway. Flow also was simulated with the culvert removed. The exact location of flood boundaries on Birch Creek could not be determined because of the highly braided channel and the many anthropogenic features (such as the trench, highway, and diversion channels) in the study area that affect flood hydraulics and flow. Because flood boundaries could not be located exactly, only a generalized flood-prone map was developed.

  9. Floods in Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, September 12-13, 1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauth, L.D.; Carswell, W.J.; Chin, E.H.

    1981-01-01

    The storms of Sept. 12-13, 1977, delivered as much as 16 in. of rain, with average rainfall exceeding 10 in. in the Kansas City metropolitan area. Twenty-five lives were lost, many were left homeless, and damages exceeded $80 million. Data obtained by the National Weather Service and the U.S. Geological Survey indicate that two record-setting rainstorms occurred within 24 hours. The first storm, in the early morning, thoroughly soaked the local drainage basins. The second storm, centered along the Brush and Round Grove Creek basins, resulted in a devastating flash flood. Peak discharges were determined during and after this major flood at gaging stations and selected miscellaneous locations. Streamflows and flood volumes in many locations far exceeded estimated values for the 100-year flood. (USGS)

  10. Flood of July 9-11, 1993, in the Raccoon River basin, west-central Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eash, D.A.; Koppensteiner, B.A.

    1997-01-01

    Water-surface-elevation profiles and peak discharges for the flood of July 9-11, 1993, in the Raccoon River Basin, west-central Iowa, are presented in this report. The profiles illustrate the 1993 flood along the Raccoon, North Raccoon, South Raccoon, and Middle Raccoon Rivers and along Brushy and Storm Creeks in the west-central Iowa counties of Carroll, Dallas, Greene, Guthrie, and Polk. Water-surface-elevation profiles for the floods of June 1947, March 1979, and June 29- July 1, 1986, in the Raccoon River Basin also are included in the report for comparative purposes. The July 9-11, 1993, flood is the largest known peak discharge at gaging stations Brushy Creek near Templeton (station number 05483318) 19,000 cubic feet per second, Middle Raccoon River near Bayard (station number 05483450) 27,500 cubic feet per second, Middle Raccoon River at Panora (station number 05483600) 22,400 cubic feet per second, South Raccoon River at Redfield (station number 05484000) 44,000 cubic feet per second, and Raccoon River at Van Meter (station number 05484500) 70,100 cubic feet per second. The peak discharges were, respectively, 1.5, 1.3, 1.1,1.2, and 1.3 times larger than calculated 100-year recurrence-interval discharges. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations in the Raccoon River Basin using flood information collected through 1996. A flood history summarizes rainfall conditions and damages for floods that occurred during 1947, 1958, 1979, 1986, 1990, and 1993. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Raccoon River Basin during 1976-79 and 1995-97 also is included in the report.

  11. Probable flood predictions in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedel, M.J.; Smith, M.E.; Chica, A.M.E.; Litke, D.

    2008-01-01

    A regionalization procedure is presented and used to predict probable flooding in four ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. The flood-prediction problem is sequentially solved for two regions: upstream mountains and downstream alluvial plains. In the upstream mountains, a set of rainfall-runoff parameter values and recurrent peak-flow discharge hydrographs are simultaneously estimated for 20 tributary-basin models. Application of dissimilarity equations among tributary basins (soft prior information) permitted development of a parsimonious parameter structure subject to information content in the recurrent peak-flow discharge values derived using regression equations based on measurements recorded outside the ungauged study basins. The estimated joint set of parameter values formed the basis from which probable minimum and maximum peak-flow discharge limits were then estimated revealing that prediction uncertainty increases with basin size. In the downstream alluvial plain, model application of the estimated minimum and maximum peak-flow hydrographs facilitated simulation of probable 100-year flood-flow depths in confined canyons and across unconfined coastal alluvial plains. The regionalization procedure provides a tool for hydrologic risk assessment and flood protection planning that is not restricted to the case presented herein. ?? 2008 ASCE.

  12. Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

    1996-01-01

    A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

  13. Preliminary flood-frequency relations for urban streams, Metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Golden, Harold G.

    1977-01-01

    A method is presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban streams in metropolitan Atlanta. The method is based on adjustments to the natural stream flood-frequency and rainfall-frequency characteristics of the local area as defined by urban flood studies in other areas. The effects of urbanization on flood-peak runoff are estimated from the percentage of drainage basin that is impervious and the percentage of drainage area served by storm sewers. Equation are presented for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood peak discharges for basin sizes from 0.5 to 100 square miles in the Atlanta metro area. Data from 12 urban streams in the Atlanta area were used to obtain a qualitative verification of the 2- and 100-year estimating equations. Hydrologic data are presently being collected for a study that will provide a data base for use in hydrologic models to develop more reliable urban flood-frequency relations. (Woodard-USGS)

  14. Flood of January 19-20, 1996 in New York State

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lumia, Richard

    1998-01-01

    Heavy rain during January 18-19, 1996, combined with unseasonably warm temperatures that caused rapid snowmelt, resulted in widespread flooding throughout New York State. Damages to highways, bridges, and private property exceeded $100 million. The storm and flooding claimed 10 lives, stranded hundreds of people, destroyed or damaged thousands of homes and businesses, and closed hundreds of roads. Forty-one counties in New York were declared federal disaster areas. The most severely affected region was within and surrounding the Catskill Mountains. Damages and losses within Delaware County alone exceeded $20 million.More than 4.5 inches of rain fell on at least 45 inches of melting snow in the Catskill Mountain region during January 18-19 and caused major flooding in the area. The most destructive flooding was along Schoharie Creek and the East and West Branches of the Delaware River. Record peak discharges occurred at 57 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations throughout New York. Maximum discharges at 15 sites, mostly within the Schoharie Creek and Delaware River basins, had recurrence intervals equal to or greater than 100 years. The storage of significant amounts of floodwater in several reservoirs sharply reduced peak discharges downstream. This report presents a summary of peak stages and discharges, precipitation maps, floodflow hydrographs, inflow-outflow hydrographs for several reservoirs, and flood profiles along 83 miles of Schoharie Creek from its headwaters in the Catskill Mountains to its mouth at the Mohawk River.

  15. Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in Puerto Rico : new empirical models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ramos-Gines, Orlando

    1999-01-01

    Flood-peak discharges and frequencies are presented for 57 gaged sites in Puerto Rico for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The log-Pearson Type III distribution, the methodology recommended by the United States Interagency Committee on Water Data, was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at the gaged sites having 10 to 43 years of record. A technique is presented for estimating flood-peak discharges at recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years for unregulated streams in Puerto Rico with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.83 to 208 square miles. Loglinear multiple regression analyses, using climatic and basin characteristics and peak-discharge data from the 57 gaged sites, were used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged to ungaged sites. The equations have contributing drainage area, depth-to-rock, and mean annual rainfall as the basin and climatic characteristics in estimating flood peak discharges. Examples are given to show a step-by-step procedure in calculating a 100-year flood at a gaged site, an ungaged site, a site near a gaged location, and a site between two gaged sites.

  16. Floods and Flash Flooding

    MedlinePlus

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  17. Generation Mechanism and Prediction Model for Low Frequency Noise Induced by Energy Dissipating Submerged Jets during Flood Discharge from a High Dam.

    PubMed

    Lian, Jijian; Zhang, Wenjiao; Guo, Qizhong; Liu, Fang

    2016-06-15

    As flood water is discharged from a high dam, low frequency (i.e., lower than 10 Hz) noise (LFN) associated with air pulsation is generated and propagated in the surrounding areas, causing environmental problems such as vibrations of windows and doors and discomfort of residents and construction workers. To study the generation mechanisms and key influencing factors of LFN induced by energy dissipation through submerged jets at a high dam, detailed prototype observations and analyses of LFN are conducted. The discharge flow field is simulated using a gas-liquid turbulent flow model, and the vorticity fluctuation characteristics are then analyzed. The mathematical model for the LFN intensity is developed based on vortex sound theory and a turbulent flow model, verified by prototype observations. The model results reveal that the vorticity fluctuation in strong shear layers around the high-velocity submerged jets is highly correlated with the on-site LFN, and the strong shear layers are the main regions of acoustic source for the LFN. In addition, the predicted and observed magnitudes of LFN intensity agree quite well. This is the first time that the LFN intensity has been shown to be able to be predicted quantitatively.

  18. Generation Mechanism and Prediction Model for Low Frequency Noise Induced by Energy Dissipating Submerged Jets during Flood Discharge from a High Dam

    PubMed Central

    Lian, Jijian; Zhang, Wenjiao; Guo, Qizhong; Liu, Fang

    2016-01-01

    As flood water is discharged from a high dam, low frequency (i.e., lower than 10 Hz) noise (LFN) associated with air pulsation is generated and propagated in the surrounding areas, causing environmental problems such as vibrations of windows and doors and discomfort of residents and construction workers. To study the generation mechanisms and key influencing factors of LFN induced by energy dissipation through submerged jets at a high dam, detailed prototype observations and analyses of LFN are conducted. The discharge flow field is simulated using a gas-liquid turbulent flow model, and the vorticity fluctuation characteristics are then analyzed. The mathematical model for the LFN intensity is developed based on vortex sound theory and a turbulent flow model, verified by prototype observations. The model results reveal that the vorticity fluctuation in strong shear layers around the high-velocity submerged jets is highly correlated with the on-site LFN, and the strong shear layers are the main regions of acoustic source for the LFN. In addition, the predicted and observed magnitudes of LFN intensity agree quite well. This is the first time that the LFN intensity has been shown to be able to be predicted quantitatively. PMID:27314374

  19. Flooding in southeastern United States from Tropical Storm Alberto, July 1994

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stamey, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    In July 1994, parts of central and southwestern Georgia, southeastern Alabama, and the western panhandle of Florida were devastated by floods resulting from rainfall produced by Tropical Storm Alberto. Entire communities were inundated by flood waters as numerous streams reached peak stages and discharges far greater than previous floods in the Flint, Ocmulgee, and Choctawhatchee River basins. The flooding resulted in 33 deaths in towns and small communities along or near the overflowing streams. President Clinton declared 78 counties as Federal disaster areas: 55 in Georgia, 10 in Alabama, and 13 in Florida. The Flint River and Ocmulgee River basins in Georgia experienced floods that exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval discharge along almost their entire lengths. Travel was disrupted as railroad and highway bridges and culverts were overtopped an, in many cases, washed out. Total flood damages to public and private property were estimated at nearly $1 billion dollars. The destruction caused by this storm serves to emphasize the high cost imposed upon life and property by flood disasters; and thus, highlight the importance of preparing for, monitoring, and documenting such occurrences.

  20. Re-Evaluation of the 1921 Peak Discharge at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mastin, M.C.

    2007-01-01

    The peak discharge record at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station at Skagit River near Concrete, Washington, is a key record that has come under intense scrutiny by the scientific and lay person communities in the last 4 years. A peak discharge of 240,000 cubic feet per second for the flood on December 13, 1921, was determined in 1923 by USGS hydrologist James Stewart by means of a slope-area measurement. USGS then determined the peak discharges of three other large floods on the Skagit River (1897, 1909, and 1917) by extending the stage-discharge rating through the 1921 flood measurement. The 1921 estimate of peak discharge was recalculated by Flynn and Benson of the USGS after a channel roughness verification was completed based on the 1949 flood on the Skagit River. The 1949 recalculation indicated that the peak discharge probably was 6.2 percent lower than Stewart's original estimate but the USGS did not officially change the peak discharge from Stewart's estimate because it was not more than a 10-percent change (which is the USGS guideline for revising peak flows) and the estimate already had error bands of 15 percent. All these flood peaks are now being used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to determine the 100-year flood discharge for the Skagit River Flood Study so any method to confirm or improve the 1921 peak discharge estimate is warranted. During the last 4 years, two floods have occurred on the Skagit River (2003, 2006) that has enabled the USGS to collect additional data, do further analysis, and yet again re-evaluate the 1921 peak discharge estimate. Since 1949, an island/bar in the study reach has reforested itself. This has complicated the flow hydraulics and made the most recent recalculation of the 1921 flood based on channel roughness verification that used 2003 and 2006 flood data less reliable. However, this recent recalculation did indicate that the original peak-discharge calculation by Stewart may be high, and it added to a

  1. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

    2016-04-01

    River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood

  2. Technique for estimating depth of floods in Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamble, C.R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimates of flood depths are needed for design of roadways across flood plains and for other types of construction along streams. Equations for estimating flood depths in Tennessee were derived using data for 150 gaging stations. The equations are based on drainage basin size and can be used to estimate depths of the 10-year and 100-year floods for four hydrologic areas. A method also was developed for estimating depth of floods having recurrence intervals between 10 and 100 years. Standard errors range from 22 to 30 percent for the 10-year depth equations and from 23 to 30 percent for the 100-year depth equations. (USGS)

  3. CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) storm hazard projections

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; O'Neill, Andrea; Herdman, Liv

    2016-01-01

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Phase I data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the Mexican Border to Pt. Conception for a 100-year storm scenario and sea-level rise 0 - 2 m. Changes from previous data releases may be reflected in some areas. Data are complete for the information presented but are considered preliminary; changes may be reflected in the full data release (Phase II) in summer 2016.

  4. Effect of Sampling Period on Flood Frequency Distributions in the Susquehanna Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kargar, M.; Beighley, R. E.

    2010-12-01

    Flooding is a devastating natural hazard that claims many human lives and significantly impact regional economies each year. Given the magnitude of flooding impacts, significant resources are dedicated to the development of forecasting models for early warning and evacuation planning, construction of flood defenses (levees/dams) to limit flooding, and the design of civil infrastructure (bridges, culverts, storm sewers) to convey flood flows without failing. In all these cases, it is particularly important to understand the potential flooding risk in terms of both recurrence interval (i.e., return period) and magnitude. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record. The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations, skewness, and recurrence intervals. Since discharge data for most catchments have been collected for periods of time less than 100 years, the estimation of the design discharge requires a degree of extrapolation. This study focuses on the assessment and modifications of flood frequency based discharges for sites with limited sampling periods. Here, limited sampling period is intended to capture two issues: (1) limited number of observations to adequately capture the flood frequency signal (i.e., minimum number of annual peaks needed) and (2) climate variability (i.e., sampling period contains primarily “wet” or “dry” periods only). Total of 34 gauges (more than 70 years of data) spread throughout the Susquehanna River basin (71,000 sq km) were used to investigate the impact of sampling period on flood frequency distributions. Data subsets ranging from 10 years to the total number of years available were created from the data for each gauging station. To estimate the flood frequency, the Log Pearson Type III distribution was fit to the logarithms of instantaneous

  5. Floods of August 7-8, 1979, in Chautauqua County, New York, with hydraulic analysis of Canadaway Creek in the village of Fredonia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lumia, Richard; Johnston, W.H.

    1984-01-01

    Extensive flooding of streams in Chautauqua County, N.Y., on August 7-8, 1979, after severe thunderstorms, resulted in one death and millions of dollars worth of property damage. Severe flooding was reported on Canadaway Creek in Fredonia, where the peak discharge was computed to be 12,000 cubic feet per second. The recurrence interval of this discharge is estimated to be greater than 100 years (exceedance probability less than 0.01). A hydraulic analysis of the flood in Fredonia indicated that a debris jam at the Water Street bridge caused the water level (as determined from floodmarks) immediately upstream from the bridge to be 2.9 feet higher than level computed for unobstructed (without debris) flow conditions. The 100-year flood discharge at the Water Street bridge is computed to be 5,280 cubic feet per second, and the corresponding water level just upstream from the bridge (under unobstructed flow conditions) is 5.9 feet lower than the level observed during the August 7-8, 1979 flood. (USGS)

  6. Integration of SRTM DEM and Hydraulic Analysis for Flood Response Planning.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pervez, M.; Asante, K. O.; Smith, J. L.; Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.

    2006-12-01

    The ability to delineate potential flood inundation areas is one of the most important requirements for flood response planning. Historical hydrologic records and high-resolution topographic data are essential to model flood inundation and to map areas at risk of inundation. For Afghanistan, historical hydrologic data enable the analysis of flood frequency, but the accurate delineation of flood inundation zones is limited by the lack of high- resolution elevation data. This study has developed a method for coupling hydraulic analysis and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to delineate flood risk maps of the Helmand and Kabul drainage basins in Afghanistan. Land surface elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) were used to create an area-elevation profile with respect to the rivers that flow into these two basins. Using the profile, we computed cross-sectional area and wetted perimeter for each 1-m increment in elevation. Manning's equation was applied to compute river discharge for each 1-m increment in water level using cross-sectional area, wetted perimeter and slope of the respective river reach. Results for the gauged river reaches were compared with 25, 50, and 100-year return period floods based on a flood frequency from the historical stream flow data, and associated depths of water were estimated for each return period flood. Peak flows at gauge stations were extrapolated to ungauged river reaches based on upstream drainage area. The estimated depths of water for each river reach were used as thresholds to identify areas subject to flood inundation, using the SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with respect to the rivers. The resulting flood inundation polygons were combined in a GIS with roads, infrastructure, settlements, and higher resolution satellite imagery to identify potential hazards due to flooding, and provide detailed information for flood response planning.

  7. Flood hazard assessment of the Hoh River at Olympic National Park ranger station, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kresch, D.L.; Pierson, T.C.

    1987-01-01

    Federal regulations require buildings and public facilities on Federal land to be located beyond or protected from inundation by a 100-year flood. Flood elevations, velocities and boundaries were determined for the occurrence of a 100-year flood through a reach, approximately 1-mi-long, of the Hoh River at the ranger station complex in Olympic National Park. Flood elevations, estimated by step-backwater analysis of the 100-year flood discharge through 14 channel and flood-plain cross sections of the Hoh River, indicate that the extent of flooding in the vicinity of buildings or public facilities at the ranger station complex is likely to be limited mostly to two historic meander channels that lie partly within loop A of the public campground and that average flood depths of about 2 feet or less would be anticipated in these channels. Mean flow velocities at the cross sections, corresponding to the passage of a 100-year flood, ranged from about 5 to over 11 ft/sec. Flooding in the vicinity of either the visitors center or the residential and maintenance areas is unlikely unless the small earthen dam at the upstream end of Taft Creek were to fail. Debris flows with volumes on the order of 100 to 1,000 cu yards could be expected to occur in the small creeks that drain the steep valley wall north of the ranger station complex. Historic debris flows in these creeks have generally traveled no more than about 100 yards out onto the valley floor. The potential risk that future debris flows in these creeks might reach developed areas within the ranger station complex is considered to be small because most of the developed areas within the complex are situated more than 100 yards from the base of the valley wall. Landslides or rock avalanches originating from the north valley wall with volumes potentially much larger than those for debris flows could have a significant impact on the ranger station complex. The probability that such landslides or avalanches may occur is

  8. Simulations of Flooding on Pea River and Whitewater Creek in the Vicinity of the Proposed Elba Bypass at Elba, Alabama

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hedgecock, T. Scott

    2003-01-01

    A two-dimensional finite-element surface-water model was used to study the effects of proposed modifications to the State Highway 203 corridor (proposed Elba Bypass/relocated U.S. Highway 84) on water-surface elevations and flow distributions during flooding in the Pea River and Whitewater Creek Basins at Elba, Coffee County, Alabama. Flooding was first simulated for the March 17, 1990, flood, using the 1990 flood-plain conditions to calibrate the model to match measured data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers after the flood. After model calibration, the effects of flooding were simulated for four scenarios: (1) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the existing flood-plain, bridge, highway, and levee conditions; (2) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the existing flood-plain and levee conditions with the State Highway 203 embankment and bridge removed; (3) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the existing flood-plain, bridge, and highway conditions with proposed modifications (elevating) to the levee; and (4) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the proposed conditions reflecting the Elba Bypass and modified levee. The simulation of floodflow for the Pea River and Whitewater Creek flood of March 17, 1990, in the study reach compared closely to flood profile data obtained after the flood. The flood of March 17, 1990, had an estimated peak discharge of 58,000 cubic feet per second at the gage (just below the confluence) and was estimated to be between a 50-year and 100-year flood event. The estimated peak discharge for Pea River and Whitewater Creek was 40,000 and 42,000 cubic feet per second, respectively. Simulation of floodflows for the 50-year flood (51,400 cubic feet per second) at the gage for existing flood-plain, bridge, highway, and levee conditions indicated that about 31 percent of the peak flow was conveyed by the State

  9. Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Dottori, Francesco; Giardino, Alessio; Bouziotas, Dimitrios; Bianchi, Alessandra; Salamon, Peter; Feyen, Luc

    2016-08-01

    Coastal flooding related to marine extreme events has severe socioeconomic impacts, and even though the latter are projected to increase under the changing climate, there is a clear deficit of information and predictive capacity related to coastal flood mapping. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining (i) the contribution of waves to the total water level; (ii) improved inundation modeling; and (iii) an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded, whenever new and more accurate data become available. Four inundation approaches of gradually increasing complexity and computational costs were evaluated in terms of their applicability to large-scale coastal flooding mapping: static inundation (SM); a semi-dynamic method, considering the water volume discharge over the dykes (VD); the flood intensity index approach (Iw); and the model LISFLOOD-FP (LFP). A validation test performed against observed flood extents during the Xynthia storm event showed that SM and VD can lead to an overestimation of flood extents by 232 and 209 %, while Iw and LFP showed satisfactory predictive skill. Application at pan-European scale for the present-day 100-year event confirmed that static approaches can overestimate flood extents by 56 % compared to LFP; however, Iw can deliver results of reasonable accuracy in cases when reduced computational costs are a priority. Moreover, omitting the wave contribution in the extreme total water level (TWL) can result in a ˜ 60 % underestimation of the flooded area. The present findings have implications for impact assessment studies, since combination of the estimated inundation maps with population exposure maps revealed differences in the estimated number of people affected within the 20-70 % range.

  10. A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

    PubMed Central

    Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non‐fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation. PMID:27840456

  11. A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-09-01

    This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

  12. Flooding and Flood Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  13. Reconstruction of peak water levels, peak discharges and long-term occurrence of extreme- as well as smaller pre-instrumental flood events of river Aare, Limmat, Reuss, Rhine and Saane in Switzerland. Part I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetter, Oliver; Tuttenuj, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Part I: Dr. Oliver Wetter. (Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) Part II: PhD student Daniel Tuttenuj (Oeschger Centre of Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) The methodology developed by Wetter et al. (2011) combines different documentary and instrumental sources, retaining relevant information for the reconstruction of extreme pre-instrumental flood events. These include hydrological measurements (gauges), historic river profiles (cross and longitudinal profiles), flood marks, historic city maps, documentary flood evidence (reports in chronicles and newspapers) as well as paintings and drawings. It has been shown that extreme river Rhine flood events of the pre-instrumental period can be reconstructed in terms of peak discharges for the last 750 years by applying this methodology to the site of Basel. Pfister & Wetter (2011) furthermore demonstrated that this methodology is also principally transferable to other locations and rivers. Institutional documentary evidence has not been systematically analysed in the context of historical hydrology in Switzerland so far. The term institutional documentary evidence generally outlines sources that were produced by governments or other (public) bodies including the church, hospitals, and the office of the bridge master. Institutional bodies were typically not directly interested in describing climate or hydrological events but they were obliged to document their activities, especially if they generated financial costs (bookkeeping), and in doing so they often indirectly recorded climatologic or hydrological events. The books of weekly expenditures of Basel ("Wochenausgabenbücher der Stadt Basel") were first analysed by Fouquet (1999). He found recurring records of wage expenditures for a squad of craftsmen that was called up onto the bridge with the task of preventing the bridge from being damaged by fishing out drifting logs from the flood waters. Fouquet

  14. Reconstruction of peak water levels, peak discharges and long-term occurrence of extreme- as well as smaller pre-instrumental flood events of river Aare, Limmat, Reuss, Rhine and Saane in Switzerland. Part II.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuttenuj, Daniel; Wetter, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    The methodology developed by Wetter et al. (2011) combines different documentary and instrumental sources, retaining relevant information for the reconstruction of extreme pre-instrumental flood events. These include hydrological measurements (gauges), historic river profiles (cross and longitudinal profiles), flood marks, historic city maps, documentary flood evidence (reports in chronicles and newspapers) as well as paintings and drawings. It has been shown that extreme river Rhine flood events of the pre-instrumental period can be reconstructed in terms of peak discharges for the last 750 years by applying this methodology to the site of Basel. Pfister & Wetter (2011) furthermore demonstrated that this methodology is also principally transferable to other locations and rivers in Switzerland. Institutional documentary evidence has not been systematically analysed in the context of historical hydrology in Switzerland so far. The term institutional documentary evidence generally outlines sources that were produced by governments or other (public) bodies including the church, hospitals, and the office of the bridge master. Institutional bodies were typically not directly interested in describing climate or hydrological events but they were obliged to document their activities, especially if they generated financial costs (bookkeeping), and in doing so they often indirectly recorded climatologic or hydrological events. The books of weekly expenditures of Basel ("Wochenausgabenbücher der Stadt Basel") were first analysed by Fouquet (1999). He found recurring records of wage expenditures for a squad of craftsmen that was called up onto the bridge with the task of preventing the bridge from being damaged by fishing out drifting logs from the flood waters. Fouquet systematically analysed the period from 1446-1542 and could prove a large number of pre-instrumental flood events of river Rhine, Birs, Birsig and Wiese in Basel. All in all the weekly led account books

  15. 100 years of mapping the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta plain: combining research and teaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, K. M.; Stouthamer, E.; Hoek, W. Z.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-04-01

    The history of modern soil, geomorphological and shallow geological mapping in the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta plain goes back about 100 years. The delta plain is of very heterogeneous build up, with clayey and peaty flood basins, dissected by sandy fluvial distributary channel belts with fine textured levees grading into tidal-influenced rivers and estuaries. Several generations of precursor rivers occur as alluvial ridges and buried ribbon sands. They form an intricate network originating from repeated avulsions, back to 8000 years ago. Present rivers have been embanked since ca. 1250 AD and the delta plain (~ 3000 km2) has been reclaimed for agriculture. Soils are young and subject to oxidation and compaction. The first detailed field map of channel belts and floodbasins was made in 1926 by Vink, a geography teacher from Amsterdam. Soil mapping and Holocene geology gained interest after WW-II, with Wageningen soil scientists Edelman, Hoeksema and Pons taking lead. Utrecht University started teaching and research on the subject in 1959, launching an undergraduate mapping field course based on hand augering and field observation. An archive of borehole logs and local maps started to build up. Initially focused on soil mapping, from 1973 the course shifted to a geomorphological-geological focus. Berendsen took over supervision, introduced standard description protocols and legends and increased coring depth. This resulted in 1982 in his influential PhD thesis on the Rhine delta's genesis. New coring and sampling methods came and extensive 14C dating campaigns began. With steadily increasing numbers of students, accumulation of data speeded up, and increasingly larger parts of the delta were mapped. The academic mapping ran in parallel with soil survey and geological survey mapping campaigns. The computer was introduced in the field course and digital data archiving began in 1989. A series of PhD studies on thematic aspects of delta evolution and an increasing number

  16. Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whetstone, Benjamin H.

    1982-01-01

    Methods are provided for estimating flood magnitudes at recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, for unregulated rural streams in South Carolina with drainage areas greater than 1.0 square mile. Multiple regression analyses were used to define the relation between flood discharge and basin and climatic variables. The analyses indicated that flood discharge is related to the drainage area and physiographic location of the basin. Accordingly, equations were developed for the Lower Coastal Plain, Inner Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge provinces. The standard errors of estimate range from 31 to 56 percent. Station data used in the analyses are listed in the report. Individual relations of flood discharge and frequency to drainage area are given for some of the regulated major streams, including the Pee Dee, Catawba, Wateree, Broad, Saluda, Congaree, Santee, and Savannah Rivers. Storm tide-recurrence interval relations along the South Carolina coast indicate that the 500-year tide height can exceed 19 feet, National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, at some locations. A compilation of flood records for gaging stations is included as supplemental data.

  17. Flooding of December 29, 1984 through January 2, 1985, in northern New York State, with flood profiles of the Black and Salmon rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lumia, Richard; Burke, P.M.; Johnston, W.H.

    1987-01-01

    Precipitation, snowmelt, and resultant flooding throughout northern New York from December 28 through January 2, 1985, were investigated through a detailed analysis of 56 precipitation stations, 101 stage and/or discharge gaging stations, and 9 miscellaneous measurement sites. Flood damage to property and roads and bridges exceeded $5 million. Lewis and Oswego Counties were declared Federal disaster areas, primarily a result of flooding of the Black River and Salmon River. Storm-precipitation and runoff maps show the storms ' greatest intensity to have been over the Tug Hill and southwest Adirondack areas. Total rainfall from December 28 through January 2 was 6.90 inches at Stillwater Reservoir but only 0.69 inches at Lake Placid. New peak discharges of record occurred at 17 gaging stations throughout northern New York, and the maximum discharge at 17 sites had recurrence intervals equal to or greater than 100 years. Computed inflows to 11 major lakes and reservoirs in northern New York indicate that significant volumes of water (as much as 5 inches of storm runoff at Stillwater Reservoir) were stored during the storm-runoff period. Maximum 1-day flood volumes at two gaging stations on the Black River had recurrence intervals greater than 100 years. To help evaluate the extent of flooding, 67 floodmarks were obtained along a 94-mile reach of the Black River from Dexter to Forestport, and several floodmarks were surveyed within major communities along the Salmon River. The floodmarks were obtained primarily near major bridges and dams along these rivers. (Author 's abstract)

  18. A Tale of 3 P's--Penmanship, Product, and Process: 100 Years of Elementary Writing Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Lisa K.; Razali, Abu Bakar

    2012-01-01

    From penmanship, to product, to process...this article recounts 100 years of instructional practice in the US elementary writing classroom through the voices of past teaching manuals and curriculum guides. This particular tale begins at the turn of the 20th century--a time when the elementary school was firmly established in the country, and…

  19. What Would You Look Like If You Were 100 Years Old?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petersen, Hugh

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project inspired by the 100th day of school in which first-grade students created a self-portrait of themselves at 100 years old and wrote an accompanying essay. States that the students drew wrinkles on the faces, age-appropriate clothing, gray or white hair, and even glasses as a finishing touch. (CMK)

  20. Assessment Gaze, Refraction, and Blur: The Course of Achievement Testing in the Past 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Eva L.; Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Cai, Li

    2016-01-01

    This chapter addresses assessment (testing) with an emphasis on the 100-year period since the American Education Research Association was formed. The authors start with definitions and explanations of contemporary tests. They then look backward into the 19th century to significant work by Horace Mann and Herbert Spencer, who engendered two…

  1. Relative impacts of climate and land use changes on future flood damage along River Meuse in Wallonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, A.; Detrembleur, S.; Dewals, B. J.; Gouverneur, L.; Dujardin, S.; Archambeau, P.; Erpicum, S.; Pirotton, M.

    2012-04-01

    Climate change is expected to increase flood hazard across most of Europe, both in terms of peak discharge intensity and frequency. Consequently, managing flood risk will remain an issue of primary importance for decades to come. Flood risk depends on territories' flood hazard and vulnerability. Beside climate change, land use evolution is thus a key influencing factor on flood risk. The aim of this research is to quantify the relative influence of climate and land use changes on flood damage evolution during the 21st century. The study focuses on River Meuse in Wallonia for a 100-year flood. A scenario-based approach was used to model land use evolution. Nine urbanization scenarios for 2100 were developed: three of them assume a "current tend" land use evolution, characterized by urban sprawl, while six others assume a sustainable spatial planning, leading to an increase in density of residential areas as well as an increase in urban functions diversity. A study commissioned by the EU has estimated a 30 % increase in the 100-year discharge for River Meuse by the year 2100. Inundation modeling was conducted for the present day 100-year flood (HQ100) and for a discharge HQ100 + 30%, using the model Wolf 2D and a 5m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model (Ernst et al. 2009). Based on five different damage curves related to land use categories, the relative damage was deduced from the computed inundation maps. Finally, specific prices were associated to each land use category and allowed assessing absolute damages, which were subsequently aggregated to obtain a damage value for each of the 19 municipalities crossed by River Meuse. Results show that flood damage is estimated to increase by 540 to 630 % between 2009 and 2100, reaching 2.1 to 2.4 billion Euros in 2100. These increases mainly involve municipalities downstream of a point where the floodplain width becomes significantly larger. The city of Liège, which is protected against a 100-year flood in the present

  2. Flood-inundation maps for the Yellow River at Plymouth, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Menke, Chad D.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Kim, Moon H.

    2016-11-16

    Digital flood-inundation maps for a 4.9-mile reach of the Yellow River at Plymouth, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 05516500, Yellow River at Plymouth, Ind. Current conditions for estimating near-real-time areas of inundation using USGS streamgage information may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/uv?site_no=05516500. In addition, information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system (http:/water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS AHPS forecasts flood hydrographs at many sites that are often collocated with USGS streamgages, including the Yellow River at Plymouth, Ind. NWS AHPS-forecast peak-stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood and forecasts of flood hydrographs at this site.For this study, flood profiles were computed for the Yellow River reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relations at the Yellow River streamgage, in combination with the flood-insurance study for Marshall County (issued in 2011). The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to determine eight water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to the highest stage of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood profile elevation (flood elevation with recurrence intervals within 100 years) is within

  3. Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

    2009-01-01

    Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Delineation of flooding within the upper Mississippi River Basin-flood of June 18 through August 4, 1993, in Des Moines and vicinity, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schaap, Bryan D.

    1996-01-01

    This hydrologic investigations atlas shows the areas in and near Des Moines, Iowa, that were flooded by the Des Moines and the Raccoon Rivers and Walnut, Fourmile, and Beaver Creeks from June 18 through August 4, 1993. This map also depicts the Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-year flood boundaries. The area drained by the Des Moines River upstream from Des Moines received more than 100 percent of normal rainfall in May, June, and July, 1993. At Boone, which is located about 35 miles north-northeast of Des Moines, July rainfall was 424 percent of normal. The discharges at streamflow- gaging stations on the Des Moines River near Stratford, downstream from Saylorville Lake, and at Des Moines are shown. The cumulative discharge for inflow-gaging stations in the Des Moines area and discharge for the Des Moines River below the Raccoon River at Des Moines from July 8 through 21, 1993, are shown. The water-surface elevations of Saylorville Lake from June 18 through August 4, 1993, are shown. Profiles of the maximum water- surface elevations of the Des Moines and Raccoon Rivers during the 1993 flood in Des Moines and vicinity are higher than the respective Federal Emergency Management Agency 100- and 500-year flood profiles.

  5. Slope-Area Computation Program Graphical User Interface 1.0—A Preprocessing and Postprocessing Tool for Estimating Peak Flood Discharge Using the Slope-Area Method

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradley, D. Nathan

    2012-01-01

    The slope-area method is a technique for estimating the peak discharge of a flood after the water has receded (Dalrymple and Benson, 1967). This type of discharge estimate is called an “indirect measurement” because it relies on evidence left behind by the flood, such as high-water marks (HWMs) on trees or buildings. These indicators of flood stage are combined with measurements of the cross-sectional geometry of the stream, estimates of channel roughness, and a mathematical model that balances the total energy of the flow between cross sections. This is in contrast to a “direct” measurement of discharge during the flood where cross-sectional area is measured and a current meter or acoustic equipment is used to measure the water velocity. When a direct discharge measurement cannot be made at a gage during high flows because of logistics or safety reasons, an indirect measurement of a peak discharge is useful for defining the high-flow section of the stage-discharge relation (rating curve) at the stream gage, resulting in more accurate computation of high flows. The Slope-Area Computation program (SAC; Fulford, 1994) is an implementation of the slope-area method that computes a peak-discharge estimate from inputs of water-surface slope (from surveyed HWMs), channel geometry, and estimated channel roughness. SAC is a command line program written in Fortran that reads input data from a formatted text file and prints results to another formatted text file. Preparing the input file can be time-consuming and prone to errors. This document describes the SAC graphical user interface (GUI), a crossplatform “wrapper” application that prepares the SAC input file, executes the program, and helps the user interpret the output. The SAC GUI is an update and enhancement of the slope-area method (SAM; Hortness, 2004; Berenbrock, 1996), an earlier spreadsheet tool used to aid field personnel in the completion of a slope-area measurement. The SAC GUI reads survey data

  6. Past and future flooding in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiele-Eich, Insa; Hopson, Thomas; Simmer, Clemens; Simon, Thorsten

    2016-04-01

    Currently, an average of about 20 % of the land surface in Bangladesh is flooded each year, affecting one of the most densely populated regions in the world. We aim to understand the processes currently determining flooding in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, in particular the role of precipitation and sea-level rise, as well as to assess how climate change might impact flood characteristics in the future. Water level and discharge data were provided by the Bangladesh Water Development Board on a daily basis for a period of 1909-2009. Monthly maps based on daily sea level anomalies from the Data Unification Altimeter Combination System DUACS are available on a 0.25° by 0.25° grid for the time period 1993-2014. Ensemble model output for upper catchment precipitation and annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise is taken from historical and RCP scenario runs conducted with the CCSM4. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. The available observations are then used to set up a generalized linear model to detect how precipitation influences flooding in the GBM basin. This model can then be used to give a prognosis on changes in future flooding. Our analysis suggests that water levels have indeed changed over the course of the past century. While the magnitude and duration of average flood events decreased, the frequency of extreme flood events has increased. Low water levels have also changed, with a significant decrease in the annual minimum water level most noticeable when we compare the time periods 1909-1939 and 1979-2009. For the future, first results confirm the decrease in return periods of strong flood events found in previous studies. The impact of climate change on flooding will also be compared to the impact of man-made structures such as Farakka barrage, built across the Ganges on the border between India and Bangladesh and operating since 1975. This is of particular interest as

  7. The August 2002 flood in Salzburg / Austria experience gained and lessons learned from the ``Flood of the century''?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiesenegger, H.

    2003-04-01

    On the {12th} of August 2002 a low pressure system moved slowly from northern Italy towards Slovakia. It continuously carried moist air from the Mediterranean towards the northern rim of the Alps with the effect of wide-spread heavy rainfall in Salzburg and other parts of Austria. Daily precipitation amounts of 100 - 160 mm, in some parts even more, as well as rainfall intensities of 5 - 10 mm/h , combined with well saturated soils lead to a rare flood with a return period of 100 years and more. This rare hydrological event not only caused a national catastrophe with damages of several Billion Euro, but also endangered more than 200,000 people, and even killed some. As floods are dangerous, life-threatening, destructive, and certainly amongst the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship as well as economic loss, a great effort, therefore, has to be made to protect people against negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve this objective, various regulations in land use planning (flood maps), constructive measurements (river regulations and technical constructions) as well as flood warning systems, which are not suitable to prevent big floods, but offer in-time-warnings to minimize the loss of human lives, are used in Austria. HYDRIS (Hydrological Information System for flood forecasting in Salzburg), a modular river basin model, developed at Technical University Vienna and operated by the Hydrological Service of Salzburg, was used during the August 2002 flood providing accurate 3 to 4 hour forecasts within 3 % of the real peak discharge of the fast flowing River Salzach. The August {12^th}} flood was in many ways an exceptional, very fast happening event which took many people by surprise. At the gauging station Salzburg / Salzach (catchment area 4425 {km^2}) it took only eighteen hours from mean annual discharge (178 {m3/s}) to the hundred years flood (2300 {m3/s}). The August flood made clear, that there is a strong need for

  8. Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, E. R.; Dennis, P. F.; Bracegirdle, T. J.; Franzke, C.

    2009-10-01

    We present a new 150-year, high-resolution, stable isotope record (δ 18O) from the Gomez ice core, drilled on the data sparse south western Antarctic Peninsula, revealing a ˜2.7°C rise in surface temperatures since the 1950s. The record is highly correlated with satellite-derived temperature reconstructions and instrumental records from Faraday station on the north west coast, thus making it a robust proxy for local and regional temperatures since the 1850s. We conclude that the exceptional 50-year warming, previously only observed in the northern Peninsula, is not just a local phenomena but part of a statistically significant 100-year regional warming trend that began around 1900. A suite of coupled climate models are employed to demonstrate that the 50 and 100 year temperature trends are outside of the expected range of variability from pre-industrial control runs, indicating that the warming is likely the result of external climate forcing.

  9. Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods on rural unregulated streams in New York State excluding Long Island

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zembrzuski, Thomas J.; Dunn, Bernard

    1979-01-01

    Techniques are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged sites on unregulated rural streams in New York, excluding Long Island. The discharge-frequency data and basin characteristics of 220 stream-gaging stations in New York and adjacent States were used in developing multiple linear regression equations for floods ranging in recurrence interval from 2 to 100 years. Separate equations were developed for northern, southeastern, and western New York. Standard errors of estimate of the 100-year flood range from 32.9 percent in the southeastern region to 42.8 percent in the western region. Drainage area is the independent variable needed in all equations; other variables needed, depending on region, are main-channel slope, storage index, and mean annual precipitation. A method is given for obtaining improved discharge-frequency relationships at gaged sites by weighting log-Pearson type III and regression estimates according to their variances. Basin characteristics, log-Pearson type III statistics, and regression and weighted estimates of the frequency-discharge relationship, are tabulated for the gaging stations used in the regression analyses. (Kosco-USGS)

  10. Creating Long Term Income Streams for the 100 Year Starship Study Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylvester, A. J.

    Development and execution of long term research projects are very dependent on a consistent application of funding to maximize the potential for success. The business structure for the 100 Year Starship Study project should allow for multiple income streams to cover the expenses of the research objectives. The following examples illustrate the range of potential avenues: 1) affiliation with a charitable foundation for creating a donation program to fund a long term endowment for research, 2) application for grants to fund initial research projects and establish the core expertise of the research entity, 3) development of intellectual property which can then be licensed for additional revenue, 4) creation of spinout companies with equity positions retained by the lab for funding the endowment, and 5) funded research which is dual use for the technology goals of the interstellar flight research objectives. With the establishment of a diversified stream of funding options, then the endowment can be funded at a level to permit dedicated research on the interstellar flight topics. This paper will focus on the strategy of creating spinout companies to create income streams which would fund the endowment of the 100 Year Starship Study effort. This technique is widely used by universities seeking to commercially develop and market technologies developed by university researchers. An approach will be outlined for applying this technique to potentially marketable technologies generated as a part of the 100 Year Starship Study effort.

  11. Continuous simulation for flood estimation in ungauged mesoscale catchments of Switzerland - Part II: Parameter regionalisation and flood estimation results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viviroli, Daniel; Mittelbach, Heidi; Gurtz, Joachim; Weingartner, Rolf

    2009-10-01

    SummaryFlood estimations for ungauged mesoscale catchments are as important as they are difficult. So far, empirical and stochastic methods have mainly been used for this purpose. Experience shows, however, that these procedures entail major errors. In order to make further progress in flood estimation, a continuous precipitation-runoff-modelling approach has been developed for practical application in Switzerland using the process-oriented hydrological modelling system PREVAH (Precipitation-Runoff-EVApotranspiration-HRU related model). The main goal of this approach is to achieve discharge hydrographs for any Swiss mesoscale catchment without measurement of discharge. Subsequently, the relevant flood estimations are to be derived from these hydrographs. On the basis of 140 calibrated catchments ( Viviroli et al., 2009b), a parameter regionalisation scheme has been developed to estimate PREVAH's tuneable parameters where calibration is not possible. The scheme is based on three individual parameter estimation approaches, namely Nearest Neighbours (parameter transfer from catchments similar in attribute space), Kriging (parameter interpolation in physical space) and Regression (parameter estimation from relations to catchment attributes). The most favourable results were achieved when the simulations using these three individual regionalisations were combined by computing their median. It will be demonstrated that the framework introduced here yields plausible flood estimations for ungauged Swiss catchments. Comparing a flood with a return period of 100 years to the reference value derived from the observed record, the median error from 49 representative catchments is only -7%, while the error for half of these catchments ranges between -30% and +8%. Additionally, our estimate lies within the statistical 90% confidence interval of the reference value in more than half of these catchments. The average quality of these flood estimations compares well with present

  12. Flood of June 26-29, 2006, Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River Basins, New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Suro, Thomas P.; Firda, Gary D.; Szabo, Carolyn O.

    2009-01-01

    A stalled frontal system caused tropical moisture to be funneled northward into New York, causing severe flooding in the Mohawk, Delaware, and Susquehanna River basins during June 26-29, 2006. Rainfall totals for this multi-day event ranged from 2 to 3 inches to greater than 13 inches in southern New York. The storm and flooding claimed four lives in New York, destroyed or damaged thousands of homes and businesses, and closed hundreds of roads and highways. Thousands of people evacuated their homes as floodwaters reached new record elevations at many locations within the three basins. Twelve New York counties were declared Federal disaster areas, more than 15,500 residents applied for disaster assistance, and millions of dollars in damages resulted from the flooding. Disaster-recovery assistance for individuals and businesses adversely affected by the floods of June 2006 reached more than $227 million. The National Weather Service rainfall station at Slide Mountain recorded storm totals of more than 8 inches of rainfall, and the stations at Walton and Fishs Eddy, NY, recorded storm totals of greater than 13 inches of rainfall. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream-gaging stations at Mohawk River at Little Falls, West Branch Delaware River at Hale Eddy, and Susquehanna River at Vestal, NY, among others, recorded peak discharges of 35,000 ft3/s, 43,400 ft3/s, and 119,000 ft3/s respectively, with greater than 100-year recurrence intervals. The peak water-surface elevation 21.47 ft and the peak discharge 189,000 ft3/s recorded on June 28, 2006, at the Delaware River at Port Jervis stream-gaging station were the highest recorded since the flood of August 1955. At the Susquehanna River at Conklin, NY, stream-gaging station, which has been in operation since 1912, the peak water-surface elevation 25.02 ft and peak discharge 76,800 ft3/s recorded on June 28, 2006, exceeded the previous period-of-record maximums that were set during the flood of March 1936. Documented

  13. Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods in Pima County, Arizona, with comparisons of alternative methods

    SciTech Connect

    Eychaner, J.H.

    1984-08-01

    In Pima County, Arizona, a semiarid region of large relief, new regression equations estimate 5- to 100-year flood discharges with standard errors of 42 to 49%. Standard errors for 2- and 500-year discharges are about 60%. Predictor variables are drainage area (0.013 to 4471 square miles), channel slope (0.3 to 13%), and shape factor. Second-order regression models represent the logarithmically nonlinear relations found across the wide range of basin characteristics. Flood estimates are reduced if channel conditions cause large attenuation of peaks. Estimates for gaged sites are a variance-weighted average of estimates from regressions and from gage data. Estimates for the Tucson urban area are based on equations developed in a nationwide study. Research on nonlinear logarithmic regressions and variables that index channel conditions might be useful. Two methods for estimating flood discharges from gage records, two sets of new regressions, and two previously published regional methods are compared. Distribution-free tests against maximum observed floods show differences in accuracy between the methods, and comparisons with base methods show differences in variability. The tests and comparisons indicate that the new equations are more accurate and less variable than methods previously published. 29 refs., 12 figs., 9 tabs.

  14. Floods in the Raccoon River basin, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinitz, Albert J.

    1980-01-01

    Evaluation of flood hazards, and the planning, design, and operation of various facilities on flood plains requires information on floods. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the Raccoon River and some of its tributaries. Ir covers the Raccoon River, the North Raccoon River to the northern boundary of Sac County and the lower reaches of the Middle and South Raccoon Rivers.

  15. On the Influence of the NAO on Outlet Glacier Stability in SE Greenland during the Past 100 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andresen, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Greenland Ice sheet has gained massive attention in recent years due to a sudden increase in mass loss at the onset of this century. A significant part of this mass loss has been attributed to increased ice discharge at the margin through iceberg calving from marine-terminating outlet glaciers. However, due to the lack of instrumental data beyond the past 20-30 years it is difficult to evaluate if this was an outstanding event or if it was part of a recurring phenomenon acting on inter-annual, inter-decadal or centennial timescales. In order to improve understanding of the timescales involved in glacier changes and on the influence of ocean and atmosphere variability we investigate sediment archives from fjords with marine terminating glaciers. Near the glacier margin the sedimentation rates are relatively high due to glacial flour input and rafting of iceberg debris. Our studies of several sediment cores obtained from Sermilik Fjord by Helheim Glacier in Southeast Greenland has allowed us to reconstruct glacier calving, shelf temperature and fjord water renewal rate for the past 100 years. These studies show that dominant modes of climate variability, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, affect ocean properties near the glacier and that the recorded variability concurs with reconstructed outlet glacier changes. This presentation provides an overview these studies.

  16. Observed climate variations during the last 100 years in Lapland, northern Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Susan E.; Press, M. C.; Lee, J. A.

    2000-03-01

    Many general circulation models (GCMs) predict that high latitude environments will experience substantial warming over the next 100 years, which will be particularly pronounced during the winter months. Precipitation is also expected to increase but there is uncertainty as to the amount and spatial variation.The flora and fauna of the arctic and subarctic regions, together with indigenous people, such as the Saami, are particularly vunerable to rising temperatures and changing precipitation. Mean monthly temperature and precipitation data were examined for the last 100 years for northern Finland. These data were further analysed for the first and second half of the 20th century.There was no discernible warming trend between 1876 and 1993, but a significant annual warming (r=0.344, <0.05) occurred in the period 1901-1945, together with a significant summer warming (r=0.381, ρ<0.05). Warming has occurred consistently in May and June over the last 100 years and there appears to be a current (i.e. post 1990) annual trend, mostly due to winter warming. The greatest temperature anomaly increase for the period 1901-1945 was in the winter months (+0.72°C). The degree of temperature variation in the winter is greater than in the summer and has risen from 3.98°C for December in the period 1901-1945 to 4.37°C in the period 1946-1990. This is attributed to the recent high variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Annual precipitation has increased significantly during the period 1880-1993. The period 1946-1990 was wetter than 1901-1945, with greater variability particularly in the summer months, which contribute most to the annual precipitation in Lapland.

  17. 100 years of Epilepsia: landmark papers and their influence in neuropsychology and neuropsychiatry.

    PubMed

    Hermann, Bruce

    2010-07-01

    As part of the 2009 International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) Centenary Celebration, a special symposium was dedicated to Epilepsia (100 Years of Epilepsia: Landmark Papers and Their Influence). The Associate Editors were asked to identify a particularly salient and meaningful paper in their areas of expertise. From the content areas of neuropsychology and neuropsychiatry two very interesting papers were identified using quite different ascertainment techniques. One paper addressed the problem of psychosis in temporal lobe epilepsy, whereas the other represents the first paper to appear in Epilepsia presenting quantitative assessment of cognitive status in epilepsy. These two papers are reviewed in detail and placed in historical context.

  18. Fascia Research Congress evidence from the 100 year perspective of Andrew Taylor Still.

    PubMed

    Findley, Thomas W; Shalwala, Mona

    2013-07-01

    More than 100 years ago A.T. Still MD founded osteopathic medicine, and specifically described fascia as a covering, with common origins of layers of the fascial system despite diverse names for individual parts. Fascia assists gliding and fluid flow and is highly innervated. Fascia is intimately involved with respiration and with nourishment of all cells of the body, including those of disease and cancer. This paper reviews information presented at the first three International Fascia Research Congresses in 2007, 2009 and 2012 from the perspective of Dr Still, that fascia is vital for organism's growth and support, and it is where disease is sown.

  19. Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in the southwestern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, B.E.; Hjalmarson, H.W.; Waltemeyer, S.D.

    1994-01-01

    Methods have been developed for estimating magni- tude and frequency of floods at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in the southwestern United States. Estimating equations for ungaged sites that apply to small drainage basins were developed by transferring information from ungaged sites using techniques such as multiple regression and a hybrid method developed during this study. Drainage area, mean basin elevation, mean annual precipitation, mean annual evaporation, latitude, and longitude are the basin and climatic charac- teristics needed to use the equations. Flood- frequency relations and selected basin and climatic characteristics, updated through 1986 water year, are tabulated for more than 1,300 gaging stations in the southwestern United States. The study area was divided into 16 flood regions. Generalized least-squares regression was used to define the regression models in 12 regions with a sufficient number of defined flood-frequency relations at gaged sites. Four regions had more than 30 percent of the gaged sites with no defined relations, thus the regression method was not used because of the large amount of missing infor- mation. The hybrid analysis was used in those 4 regions, because it does not require individual flood-frequency relations and thus can use data for all gaging stations in a region. Average standard error of prediction for the 12 regions with generalized least-squares models ranged from 39 to 95 percent for the 100-year peak discharge. The estimated average standard error of the four hybrid models ranged from 0.44 to 1.8 log units for the 100-year peak discharge.

  20. Method for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lara, O.G.

    1987-01-01

    This report provides techniques and procedures for estimating the probable magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged sites on Iowa streams. Physiographic characteristics were used to define the boundaries of five hydrologic regions. Regional regression equations that relate the size of the drainage area to flood magnitude are defined for estimating peak discharges having specified recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Regional regression equations are applicable to sites on streams that have drainage areas ranging from 0.04- to 5,150 square miles provided that the streams are not affected significantly by regulation upstream from the sites and that the drainage areas upstream from the sites are not mostly urban areas. Flood-frequency characteristics for the mains terns of selected rivers are presented in graphs as a function of drainage area.

  1. Solar wind variations in the 60-100 year period range: A review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.

    1983-01-01

    The evidence for and against the reality of a solar wind variation in the period range of 60-100 years is reexamined. Six data sets are reviewed; sunspot numbers, geomagnetic variations, two auroral data sets and two (14)C data sets. These data are proxies for several different aspects of the solar wind and the presence or absence of 60-100 year cyclic behavior in a particular data set does not necessarily imply the presence or absence of this variation in other sets. It was concluded that two different analyses of proxy data for a particular characteristic of the heliospheric solar wind yielded conflicting results. This conflict can be resolved only by future research. It is also definitely confirmed that proxy data for the solar wind in the ecliptic at 1 A.U. undergo a periodic variation with a period of approximately 87 years. The average amplitude and phase of this variation as seen in eleven cycles of proxy data are presented.

  2. Morphological response of songbirds to 100 years of landscape change in North America.

    PubMed

    Desrochers, A

    2010-06-01

    Major landscape changes caused by humans may create strong selection pressures and induce rapid evolution in natural populations. In the last 100 years, eastern North America has experienced extensive clear-cutting in boreal areas, while afforestation has occurred in most temperate areas. Based on museum specimens, I show that wings of several boreal forest songbirds and temperate songbirds of non-forest habitats have become more pointed over the last 100 years. In contrast, wings of most temperate forest and early-successional boreal forests species have become less pointed over the same period. In contrast to wing shape, the bill length of most species did not change significantly through time. These results are consistent with the "habitat isolation hypothesis", i.e., songbirds evolved in response to recent changes in the amount of available habitat and associated implications for mobility. Rapid morphological evolution may mitigate, without necessarily preventing, negative consequences of habitat loss caused by humans through direct exploitation or climate change.

  3. Solving the Supreme Problem: 100 years of selection and recruitment at the Journal of Applied Psychology.

    PubMed

    Ployhart, Robert E; Schmitt, Neal; Tippins, Nancy T

    2017-03-01

    This article reviews 100 years of research on recruitment and selection published in the Journal of Applied Psychology. Recruitment and selection research has been present in the Journal from the very first issue, where Hall (1917) suggested that the challenge of recruitment and selection was the Supreme Problem facing the field of applied psychology. As this article shows, the various topics related to recruitment and selection have ebbed and flowed over the years in response to business, legal, and societal changes, but this Supreme Problem has captivated the attention of scientist-practitioners for a century. Our review starts by identifying the practical challenges and macro forces that shaped the sciences of recruitment and selection and helped to define the research questions the field has addressed. We then describe the evolution of recruitment and selection research and the ways the resulting scientific advancements have contributed to staffing practices. We conclude with speculations on how recruitment and selection research may proceed in the future. Supplemental material posted online provides additional depth by including a summary of practice challenges and scientific advancements that affected the direction of selection and recruitment research and an outline of seminal articles published in the Journal and corresponding time line. The 100-year anniversary of the Journal of Applied Psychology is very much the celebration of recruitment and selection research, although predictions about the future suggest there is still much exciting work to be done. (PsycINFO Database Record

  4. Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

  5. Urban flood analysis in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; Huntzinger, T.L.; Bergman, D.L.; Patneaude, A.L.

    1983-01-01

    Flood insurance study information from the Federal Emergency Management Agency is utilized to estimate future flood hazard in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Techniques are described for estimating future urban runoff estimates. A method of developing stream cross section rating curves is explained. Future runoff estimates are used in conjuction with the rating curves to develop an estimate of 50- and 100- year flood profiles that would result from future urban development.

  6. Analysis of Flood-Magnitude and Flood-Frequency Data for Streamflow-Gaging Stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

    2007-01-01

    -rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

  7. Sedimentary records of eutrophication and hypoxia in the Changjiang Estuary over the last 100 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuwen, F.; Hongliang, L.; Zhao, M.; Xuefa, S.

    2012-12-01

    We selected two cores in the Changjiang Estuary, one located in the Changjiang Estuary mud area (CEMA) within the region of seasonal hypoxia, the other located in the Cheju Island mud area (SCIMA) and outside the hypoxia region. The grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), stable carbon isotopic ratios (δ13 Corg), biomarkers (the sum of brassicasterol, dinosterol and alkenone) and some redox sensitive elements (RSEs) were determined on the 210Pb-dated sediment cores to study potential hundrend-years eutrophication and hypoxia. The sediment record in CEMA showed that an increase in TOC (21%), biomarkers (141%) and δ13 Corg (1.6‰PDB ) occurred since 1950s and a marked increase since 1970s. These distributions indicated the enhanced productivity and establshed the history of eutrophication in the Changjiang Estuary during the past 100 years. Some RSEs have been enriched significantly since the late 1960s to 1970s, the rates of Mo/Al, Cd/Al and As/Al increased about 83%, 73% and 50% respectively. These data may indicate the onset of hypoxia in the Changjiang Estuary during the last 100 years. The increasing of marine organic matter and RSEs accumulation was corresponding with the fertilizer consumption and high nutrient inputs from the Changjiang River. The riverine runoff of fertilizers and nutrients stimulated the algae (e g. brassicasterol, dinosterol) blooming. Enhanced primary production resulted in an enrichment of organic matter and hypoxia invoked organic matter preserved in the sediment. For the core sediment in SCIMA, the geochemical indicators (TOC, biomarkers and δ13Corg ) increased in difference degrees before 1950s~1970s and then were almost the constant. Productivity in the SCIMA have been mainly influenced by climate ocean circulation changes over the last 100 years. The RSEs were controlled by "grain size effects" which indicated no hypoxia occurred. This study concluded that δ13 Corg, RSEs and biomarkers in sediment could be used to trace or

  8. Epic Flooding in Georgia, 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gotvald, Anthony J.; McCallum, Brian E.

    2010-01-01

    Metropolitan Atlanta-September 2009 Floods The epic floods experienced in the Atlanta area in September 2009 were extremely rare. Eighteen streamgages in the Metropolitan Atlanta area had flood magnitudes much greater than the estimated 0.2-percent (500-year) annual exceedance probability. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reported that 23 counties in Georgia were declared disaster areas due to this flood and that 16,981 homes and 3,482 businesses were affected by floodwaters. Ten lives were lost in the flood. The total estimated damages exceed $193 million (H.E. Longenecker, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., November 2009). On Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Ga., just north of Interstate 20, the peak stage was more than 6 feet higher than the estimated peak stage of the 0.2-percent (500-year) flood. Flood magnitudes in Cobb County on Sweetwater, Butler, and Powder Springs Creeks greatly exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent (500-year) floods for these streams. In Douglas County, the Dog River at Ga. Highway 5 near Fairplay had a peak stage nearly 20 feet higher than the estimated peak stage of the 0.2-percent (500-year) flood. On the Chattahoochee River, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage at Vinings reached the highest level recorded in the past 81 years. Gwinnett, De Kalb, Fulton, and Rockdale Counties also had record flooding.South Georgia March and April 2009 FloodsThe March and April 2009 floods in South Georgia were smaller in magnitude than the September floods but still caused significant damage. No lives were lost in this flood. Approximately $60 million in public infrastructure damage occurred to roads, culverts, bridges and a water treatment facility (Joseph T. McKinney, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., July 2009). Flow at the Satilla River near Waycross, exceeded the 0.5-percent (200-year) flood. Flows at seven other stations in South Georgia exceeded the 1-percent (100-year) flood.

  9. 100-year DASCH Light Curves of Kepler Planet-Candidate Host Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Sumin; Sasselov, Dimitar; Grindlay, Jonathan; Los, Edward; Servillat, Mathieu

    2013-07-01

    We present 100 year light curves of Kepler planet-candidate host stars from the Digital Access to a Sky Century at Harvard (DASCH) project. 261 out of 997 host stars have at least 10 good measurements on DASCH scans of the Harvard plates. 109 of them have at least 100 good measurements, including 70% (73 out of 104) of all host stars with g ≤ 13 mag, and 44% (100 out of 228) of all host stars with g ≤ 14 mag. Our typical photometric uncertainty is ∼0.1–0.15 mag. No variation is found at 3σ level for these host stars, including 21 confirmed or candidate hot Jupiter systems which might be expected to show enhanced flares from magnetic interactions between dwarf primaries and their close and relatively massive planet companions.

  10. 100 years of Pb deposition and transport in soils in Champaign, Illinois, U.S.A

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhang, Y.

    2003-01-01

    In Illinois, atmospheric deposition is one major source of heavy metal inputs to agricultural land. The atmospheric Pb deposition and transport record in agricultural soils in Champaign, Illinois, was established by studying surface and subsurface soil samples collected during the past 100 years from the Morrow Plots on the campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The Pb content in the soil samples was measured and the Ph deposition fluxes were calculated. The Pb content in surface soils increased sharply in the first half of the 20th century, and stayed invariant since. The maximum Pb flux from the atmosphere was estimated to be 27 (??14) ??g cm-2 yr-1 around 1940. The major pollution source for this increase probably was residential coal burning. It was estimated that in 50 yr, more than 50% of the Pb input had been lost from the surface soils.

  11. The Reissner Canard: The first all-metal airplane 100 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krause, Egon

    2012-10-01

    In 1912 Professor Hans Reissner of the Technical University Aachen built a canard-type aeroplane, the world-wide first completely out of metal: although the Reissner Canard initiated a new technology with the Junkers J1 the first to follow in 1915 and 1000 more until now, little is known about the very first steps way back in Aachen. This paper tries to recapture some details of the developments 100 years ago with the aid of early publications and photographs and shed some light on the first wing fabricated out of a corrugated aluminum sheet mounted at the tail of the braced-steel-pipe fuselage to earn its airworthiness in Berlin Johannisthal in 1912.

  12. 100 years of applied psychology research on individual careers: From career management to retirement.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mo; Wanberg, Connie R

    2017-03-01

    This article surveys 100 years of research on career management and retirement, with a primary focus on work published in the Journal of Applied Psychology. Research on career management took off in the 1920s, with most attention devoted to the development and validation of career interest inventories. Over time, research expanded to attend to broader issues such as the predictors and outcomes of career interests and choice; the nature of career success and who achieves it; career transitions and adaptability to change; retirement decision making and adjustment; and bridge employment. In this article, we provide a timeline for the evolution of the career management and retirement literature, review major theoretical perspectives and findings on career management and retirement, and discuss important future research directions. (PsycINFO Database Record

  13. Sustainable Foods and Medicines Support Vitality, Sex and Longevity for a 100-Year Starship Expedition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, M. R.

    Extended space flight requires foods and medicines that sustain crew health and vitality. The health and therapeutic needs for the entire crew and their children for a 100-year space flight must be sustainable. The starship cannot depend on resupply or carry a large cargo of pharmaceuticals. Everything in the starship must be completely recyclable and reconstructable, including food, feed, textiles, building materials, pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and medicines. Smart microfarms will produce functional foods with superior nutrition and sensory attributes. These foods provide high-quality protein and nutralence (nutrient density), that avoids obesity, diabetes, and other Western diseases. The combination of functional foods, lifestyle actions, and medicines will support crew immunity, energy, vitality, sustained strong health, and longevity. Smart microfarms enable the production of fresh medicines in hours or days, eliminating the need for a large dispensary, which eliminates concern over drug shelf life. Smart microfarms are adaptable to the extreme growing area, resource, and environmental constraints associated with an extended starship expedition.

  14. Secular changes in growth among Japanese children over 100 years (1900-2000).

    PubMed

    Kagawa, Masaharu; Tahara, Yasuaki; Moji, Kazuhiko; Nakao, Rieko; Aoyagi, Kiyoshi; Hills, Andrew P

    2011-01-01

    Human growth is associated with complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. While research has reported increased body size and body mass index (BMI) of Japanese children, few studies have compared the magnitude of increments in growth before and after World War II (WW II) and also considered other social and economical events that may have influenced the growth of children. The current study assessed the secular change in growth in Japanese children and adolescents aged between 6 and 17 years using data from the School Health Statistics Survey conducted between 1900 and 2000 with consideration of key social changes during the 20th Century. Over the 100-year period, Japanese boys had height and weight increments of 1.0-2.0 cm per decade and 0.4-1.7 kg per decade whereas girls had rates of 1.1-1.9 cm and 0.4-1.5 kg per decade, respectively. The rates of height increment were significantly (p<0.05) different between pre-, during and post-WW II periods. While Japanese children were considerably larger in 2000 compared to 1900, increments between 1950 and 1960 reflected catch-up growth to restore physical size seen in children prior to WW II. The increments in body size continued after 1960 with greatest changes seen across the pubertal years. While increments in BMI were evident in most age groups, the BMI of 17-year-old girls was consistent over the 100 years. Results clarified secular changes in growth in Japanese school children across the 20th Century and possible factors contributing to these changes.

  15. 100+ years of instrumental seismology: the example of the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storchak, Dmitry; Di Giacomo, Domenico

    2015-04-01

    Systematic seismological observations of earthquakes using seismic instruments on a global scale began more than 100 years ago. Since then seismologists made many discoveries about the Earth interior and the physics of the earthquakes, also thanks to major developments in the seismic instrumentation deployed around the world. Besides, since the establishment of the first global networks (Milne and Jesuit networks), seismologists around the world stored and exchanged the results of routine observations (e.g., picking of arrival times, amplitude-period measurements, etc.) or more sophisticated analyses (e.g., moment tensor inversion) in seismological bulletins/catalogues. With a project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), the ISC and the Team of International Experts released a new global earthquake catalogue, the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php), which, differently from previous global seismic catalogues, has the unique feature of covering the entire period of instrumental seismology with locations and magnitude re-assessed using modern approaches for the global earthquakes selected for processing (in the current version approximately 21,000). During the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue many seismological developments occurred in terms of instrumentation, seismological practice and knowledge of the physics of the earthquakes. In this contribution we give a brief overview of the major milestones characterizing the last 100+ years of instrumental seismology that were relevant for the production of the ISC-GEM catalogue and the major challenges we faced to obtain a catalogue as homogenous as possible.

  16. Flood-prone areas of Jacksonville, Duval County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stone, Richard B.; Causey, Lawson V.; Tucker, D.F.

    1976-01-01

    Floods in the consolidated city of Jacksonville, Duval County, Florida, are caused directly by rainfall which, when combined with storm driven tides, causes rivers or other bodies of water to flood the low lying parts of the county. This map report supplies information on areas subject to floods of 100-year frequency; the information will permit evaluation of alternative uses of such areas. The extent of the 100-year flood is shown on the large-scale map accompanying the report. Also included is an index map showing sections of Duval County where more detailed information on the 100-year flood can be obtained. The major flood of record in the county occurred in 1964 when Hurricane Dora crossed the area. (Woodard-USGS)

  17. Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

    2009-01-01

    A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than

  18. Hydrology, geomorphology, and flood profiles of the Mendenhall River, Juneau, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neal, Edward G.; Host, Randy H.

    1999-01-01

    Water-surface-profile elevations for the 2-, 20-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were computed for the Mendenhall River near Juneau, Alaska, using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model. The peak discharges for the selected recurrence intervals were determined using the standard log-Pearson type III method. Channel cross sections were surveyed at 60 locations to define hydraulic characteristics over a 5.5-mile reach of river beginning at Mendenhall Lake outlet and extending to the river mouth. A peak flow of 12,400 cubic feet per second occurred on the Mendenhall River on October 20, 1998. This discharge is equivalent to about a 10-year flood on the Mendenhall River and floodmarks produced by this flood were surveyed and used to calibrate the model. The study area is currently experiencing land-surface uplift rates of about 0.05 foot per year. This high rate of uplift has the potential to cause incision or downcutting of the river channel through lowering of the base level. Vertical datum used in the study area was established about 37 years before the most recent surveys of river-channel geometry. The resulting difference between land-surface elevations and sea level continues to increase. Continuing incision of the river channel combined with increased land-surface elevations with respect to sea level may result in computed flood profiles that are higher than actual existing conditions in the tidally influenced reach of the river.

  19. Natural Flood Management in context: evaluating and enhancing the impact.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

    2016-04-01

    The series of flood events in the UK throughout December 2015 have led to calls for a reappraisal of the country's approach to flood management. In parts of Cumbria so-called "1 in 100" year floods have occurred three times in the last ten years, leading to significant infrastructure damage. Hard-engineered defences upgraded to cope with an anticipated 20% increase in peak flows and these 1% AEP events have been overwhelmed. It has become more widely acknowledged that unsympathetic agricultural and upland management practices, mainly since the Second World War, have led to a significant loss of storage in mid and upper catchments and their consequent ability to retain and slow storm run-off. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a nature-based solution to restoring this storage and flood peak attenuation through a network of small-scale features exploiting natural topography and materials. Combined with other "soft" interventions such as restoring flood plain roughness and tree-planting, NFM offers the attractive prospect of an intervention that can target both the ecological and chemical objectives of the Water Framework Directive and the resilience demanded by the Floods Directive. We developed a simple computerised physical routing model that can account for the presence of in-channel and offline features such as would be found in a NFM scheme. These will add storage to the channel and floodplain and throttle the downstream discharge at storm flows. The model was applied to the heavily-modified channel network of an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire using the run-off simulated for two storm events that caused flooding downstream in the autumn of 2012. Using up to 60 online features we demonstrated some gains in channel storage and a small impact on the flood hydrograph which would, however, have been insufficient to prevent the downstream floods in either of the storms. Complementary research at JBA has applied their hydrodynamic model JFLOW+ to identify

  20. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  1. Stages of the pathologic process in Alzheimer disease: age categories from 1 to 100 years.

    PubMed

    Braak, Heiko; Thal, Dietmar R; Ghebremedhin, Estifanos; Del Tredici, Kelly

    2011-11-01

    Two thousand three hundred and thirty two nonselected brains from 1- to 100-year-old individuals were examined using immunocytochemistry (AT8) and Gallyas silver staining for abnormal tau; immunocytochemistry (4G8) and Campbell-Switzer staining were used for the detection ofβ-amyloid. A total of 342 cases was negative in the Gallyas stain but when restaged for AT8 only 10 were immunonegative. Fifty-eight cases had subcortical tau predominantly in the locus coeruleus, but there was no abnormal cortical tau (subcortical Stages a-c). Cortical involvement (abnormal tau in neurites) was identified first in the transentorhinal region (Stage 1a, 38 cases). Transentorhinal pyramidal cells displayed pretangle material (Stage 1b, 236 cases). Pretangles gradually became argyrophilic neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) that progressed in parallel with NFT Stages I to VI. Pretangles restricted to subcortical sites were seen chiefly at younger ages. Of the total cases, 1,031 (44.2%) had β-amyloid plaques. The first plaques occurred in the neocortex after the onset of tauopathy in the brainstem. Plaques generally developed in the 40s in 4% of all cases, culminating in their tenth decade (75%). β-amyloid plaques and NFTs were significantly correlated (p < 0.0001). These data suggest that tauopathy associated with sporadic Alzheimer disease may begin earlier than previously thought and possibly in the lower brainstem rather than in the transentorhinal region.

  2. Physiological and morphological acclimation to height in cupressoid leaves of 100-year-old Chamaecyparis obtusa.

    PubMed

    Shiraki, Ayumi; Azuma, Wakana; Kuroda, Keiko; Ishii, H Roaki

    2016-10-15

    Cupressoid (scale-like) leaves are morphologically and functionally intermediate between stems and leaves. While past studies on height acclimation of cupressoid leaves have focused on acclimation to the vertical light gradient, the relationship between morphology and hydraulic function remains unexplored. Here, we compared physiological and morphological characteristics between treetop and lower-crown leaves of 100-year-old Chamaecyparis obtusa Endl. trees (~27 m tall) to investigate whether height-acclimation compensates for hydraulic constraints. We found that physiological acclimation of leaves was determined by light, which drove the vertical gradient of evaporative demand, while leaf morphology and anatomy were determined by height. Compared with lower-crown leaves, treetop leaves were physiologically acclimated to water stress. Leaf hydraulic conductance was not affected by height, and this contributed to higher photosynthetic rates of treetop leaves. Treetop leaves had higher leaf area density and greater leaf mass per area, which increase light interception but could also decrease hydraulic efficiency. We inferred that transfusion tissue flanking the leaf vein, which was more developed in the treetop leaves, contributes to water-stress acclimation and maintenance of leaf hydraulic conductance by facilitating osmotic adjustment of leaf water potential and efficient water transport from xylem to mesophyll. Our findings may represent anatomical adaptation that compensates for hydraulic constraints on physiological function with increasing height.

  3. [Nutrient dynamics over the past 100 years and its restoration baseline in Dianshan Lake].

    PubMed

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Chen, Xiao-Hua; Dong, Xu-Hui; Dong, Zhi; Sun, Dun-Ping

    2012-10-01

    The restoration of eutrophic lakes requires a good knowledge on the history and baseline of nutrients in the lakes. This work conducted an analysis on 210Pb/137Cs, water content, loss-on-ignition, sedimentary total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC) and diatoms in the four sediment cores from Dianshan Lake (near Shanghai City). Good coherence in palaeoproxies between the cores indicates a relatively stable sedimentary environment. With increasing human impact, diatom communities shifted from oligo-trophic species Cyclotella bodanica, C. ocelata, Achnanthes minutissima, Cocconeis placentula var lineate, Cymbella sp. , Fragilaria pintata, F. brevistrata, F. construens var venter to recent eutrophic species including Cyclostephanos dubias, C. atomus, Stephanodiscus minitulus, S. hantzschi, Aulacoseria alpigena. The epilimnetic TP over the past 100 years reconstructed using an established diatom-TP transfer function matches well with the monitoring TP where exists. Based on the sedimentary nutrient characteristics and diatom-reconstructed nutrient dynamics, we proposed that the nutrient baseline for Dianshan Lake is 50-60 microg x L(-1), 500 mg x kg(-1) and 550 mg x kg(-1) for water TP concentration, sedimentary TP and TN, respectively.

  4. Revisiting extreme storms of the past 100 years for future safety of large water management infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.

  5. Under Connecticut Skies: Exploring 100 Years of Astronomy at Van Vleck Observatory in Middletown, Connecticut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilgard, Roy E.; Williams, Amrys; Erickson, Paul; Herbst, William; Redfield, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Under Connecticut Skies examines the history of astronomy at Van Vleck Observatory, located on the campus of Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut. Since its dedication in June of 1916, Van Vleck has been an important site of astronomical research, teaching, and public outreach. Over a thousand visitors pass through the observatory each year, and regular public observing nights happen year-round in cooperation with the Astronomical Society of Greater Hartford. Our project explores the place-based nature of astronomical research, the scientific instruments, labor, and individuals that have connected places around the world in networks of observation, and the broader history of how observational astronomy has linked local people, amateur observers, professional astronomers, and the tools and objects that have facilitated their work under Connecticut’s skies over the past 100 years. Our research team has produced a historical exhibition to help commemorate the observatory’s centennial that opened to the public in May of 2016. Our work included collecting, documenting, and interpretting this history through objects, archival documents, oral histories, photographs, and more. The result is both a museum and a working history "laboratory" for use by student and professional researchers. In addition to the exhibit itself, we have engaged in new interpretive programs to help bring the history of astronomy to life. Future work will include digitization of documents and teaching slides, further collection of oral histories, and expanding the collection to the web for use by off-site researches.

  6. 100 years of relativity. Space-time structure: Einstein and beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashtekar, Abhay

    2005-11-01

    Thanks to Einstein's relativity theories, our notions of space and time underwent profound revisions about a 100 years ago. The resulting interplay between geometry and physics has dominated all of fundamental physics since then. This volume contains contributions from leading researchers, worldwide, who have thought deeply about the nature and consequences of this interplay. The articles take a long-range view of the subject and distill the most important advances in broad terms, making them easily accessible to non-specialists. The first part is devoted to a summary of how relativity theories were born (J. Stachel). The second part discusses the most dramatic ramifications of general relativity, such as black holes (P. Chrusciel and R. Price), space-time singularities (H. Nicolai and A. Rendall), gravitational waves (P. Laguna and P. Saulson), the large scale structure of the cosmos (T. Padmanabhan); experimental status of this theory (C. Will) as well as its practical application to the GPS system (N. Ashby). The last part looks beyond Einstein and provides glimpses into what is in store for us in the 21st century. Contributions here include summaries of radical changes in the notions of space and time that are emerging from quantum field theory in curved space-times (Ford), string theory (T. Banks), loop quantum gravity (A. Ashtekar), quantum cosmology (M. Bojowald), discrete approaches (Dowker, Gambini and Pullin) and twistor theory (R Penrose).

  7. Carbon dioxide and methane emissions from an artificially drained coastal wetland during a flood: Implications for wetland global warming potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gatland, J. R.; Santos, I. R.; Maher, D. T.; Duncan, T. M.; Erler, D. V.

    2014-08-01

    Floods frequently produce deoxygenation and acidification in waters of artificially drained coastal acid sulfate soil (CASS) wetlands. These conditions are ideal for carbon dioxide and methane production. We investigated CO2 and CH4 dynamics and quantified carbon loss within an artificially drained CASS wetland during and after a flood. We separated the system into wetland soils (inundated soil during flood and exposed soil during post flood period), drain water, and creek water and performed measurements of free CO2 ([CO2*]), CH4, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon (DIC and DOC), stable carbon isotopes, and radon (222Rn: natural tracer for groundwater discharge) to determine aquatic carbon loss pathways. [CO2*] and CH4 values in the creek reached 721 and 81 μM, respectively, 2 weeks following a flood during a severe deoxygenation phase (dissolved oxygen ~ 0% saturation). CO2 and CH4 emissions from the floodplain to the atmosphere were 17-fold and 170-fold higher during the flooded period compared to the post-flood period, respectively. CO2 emissions accounted for about 90% of total floodplain mass carbon losses during both the flooded and post-flood periods. Assuming a 20 and 100 year global warming potential (GWP) for CH4 of 105 and 27 CO2-equivalents, CH4 emission contributed to 85% and 60% of total floodplain CO2-equivalent emissions, respectively. Stable carbon isotopes (δ13C in dissolved CO2 and CH4) and 222Rn indicated that carbon dynamics within the creek were more likely driven by drainage of surface floodwaters from the CASS wetland rather than groundwater seepage. This study demonstrated that >90% of CO2 and CH4 emissions from the wetland system occurred during the flood period and that the inundated wetland was responsible for ~95% of CO2-equivalent emissions over the floodplain.

  8. Elemental chemistry of sand-boil discharge used to trace variable pathways of seepage beneath levees during the 2011 Mississippi River flood

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Water samples were collected from the Mississippi River, from sand boils near the toe of the levee on the Mississippi side of the river, and from actively flowing relief wells shortly after peak stage of the 2011 Mississippi River flood. Two distinct pathways for seepage under the levee were identif...

  9. An epidemiological review of changes in meningococcal biology during the last 100 years

    PubMed Central

    Abio, Anne; Neal, Keith R; Beck, Charles R

    2013-01-01

    Aim The aim of this study was to assess changes in trends of meningococcal disease and strain diversity of Neisseria meningitidis in Europe, South America, and Africa over the last 100 years. Methods Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched in 2012 and records were screened against the protocol eligibility criteria using a three-stage sifting process. Studies included in the review were subject to data extraction. Results were summarised using a narrative approach. Results Serogroup A was the dominant cause of invasive meningococcal disease in Europe before and during World Wars I and II. Whilst serogroup B has been dominant from the 1970s in Europe and the 1980s in South America, outbreaks have emerged associated with serogroups W135 and Y in the twenty-first century. There has been a shift in the age groups affected by invasive meningococcal disease with an increase in incidence among the elderly associated with serogroup Y and a decline in serogroup C among adolescent populations. Recent outbreaks of serogroup W135 have occurred in some countries in South America. The epidemiological trend of invasive meningococcal disease has remained largely static across Africa and dominated by serogroup A although recently serogroups X and W135 have accounted for a large proportion of morbidity and mortality. Conclusion The epidemiology of N. meningitidis has been dynamic in Europe and South America especially over the last 30 years. Routine vaccination with serogroup C vaccines has led to reduced carriage and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and herd immunity. PMID:24392681

  10. 100 years of California’s water rights system: patterns, trends and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grantham, Theodore E.; Viers, Joshua H.

    2014-08-01

    For 100 years, California’s State Water Resources Control Board and its predecessors have been responsible for allocating available water supplies to beneficial uses, but inaccurate and incomplete accounting of water rights has made the state ill-equipped to satisfy growing societal demands for water supply reliability and healthy ecosystems. Here, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of appropriative water rights to identify where, and to what extent, water has been dedicated to human uses relative to natural supplies. The results show that water right allocations total 400 billion cubic meters, approximately five times the state’s mean annual runoff. In the state’s major river basins, water rights account for up to 1000% of natural surface water supplies, with the greatest degree of appropriation observed in tributaries to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and in coastal streams in southern California. Comparisons with water supplies and estimates of actual use indicate substantial uncertainty in how water rights are exercised. In arid regions such as California, over-allocation of surface water coupled with trends of decreasing supply suggest that new water demands will be met by re-allocation from existing uses. Without improvements to the water rights system, growing human and environmental demands portend an intensification of regional water scarcity and social conflict. California’s legal framework for managing its water resources is largely compatible with needed reforms, but additional public investment is required to enhance the capacity of the state’s water management institutions to effectively track and regulate water rights.

  11. The Archives of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism: Documenting 100 Years of Carnegie Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, S. J.

    2005-12-01

    The archives of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism (DTM) of the Carnegie Institution of Washington document more than a century of geophysical and astronomical investigations. Primary source materials available for historical research include field and laboratory notebooks, equipment designs, plans for observatories and research vessels, scientists' correspondence, and thousands of expedition and instrument photographs. Yet despite its history, DTM long lacked a systematic approach to managing its documentary heritage. A preliminary records survey conducted in 2001 identified more than 1,000 linear feet of historically-valuable records languishing in dusty, poorly-accessible storerooms. Intellectual control at that time was minimal. With support from the National Historical Publications and Records Commission, the "Carnegie Legacy Project" was initiated in 2003 to preserve, organize, and facilitate access to DTM's archival records, as well as those of the Carnegie Institution's administrative headquarters and Geophysical Laboratory. Professional archivists were hired to process the 100-year backlog of records. Policies and procedures were established to ensure that all work conformed to national archival standards. Records were appraised, organized, and rehoused in acid-free containers, and finding aids were created for the project web site. Standardized descriptions of each collection were contributed to the WorldCat bibliographic database and the AIP International Catalog of Sources for History of Physics. Historic photographs and documents were digitized for online exhibitions to raise awareness of the archives among researchers and the general public. The success of the Legacy Project depended on collaboration between archivists, librarians, historians, data specialists, and scientists. This presentation will discuss key aspects (funding, staffing, preservation, access, outreach) of the Legacy Project and is aimed at personnel in observatories, research

  12. To Humbly Go: Guarding Against Perpetuating Models of Colonization in the 100-Year Starship Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kramer, W. R.

    Past patterns of exploration, colonization and exploitation on Earth continue to provide the predominant paradigms that guide many space programs. Any project of crewed space exploration, especially of the magnitude envisioned by the 100-Year Starship Study, must guard against the hubris that may emerge among planners, crew, and others associated with the project, including those industries and bureaucracies that will emerge from the effort. Maintaining a non-exploitative approach may be difficult in consideration of the century of preparatory research and development and the likely multigenerational nature of the voyage itself. Starting now with mission dreamers and planners, the purpose of the voyage must be cast as one of respectful learning and humble discovery, not of conquest (either actual or metaphorical) or other inappropriate models, including military. At a minimum, the Study must actively build non-violence into the voyaging culture it is beginning to create today. References to exploitive colonization, conquest, destiny and other terms from especially American frontier mythology, while tempting in their propagandizing power, should be avoided as they limit creative thinking about alternative possible futures. Future voyagers must strive to adapt to new environments wherever possible and be assimilated by new worlds both biologically and behaviorally rather than to rely on attempts to recreate the Earth they have left. Adaptation should be strongly considered over terraforming. This paper provides an overview of previous work linking the language of colonization to space programs and challenges the extension of the myth of the American frontier to the Starship Study. It argues that such metaphors would be counter-productive at best and have the potential to doom long-term success and survival by planting seeds of social decay and self-destruction. Cautions and recommendations are suggested.

  13. Techniques for simulating flood hydrographs and estimating flood volumes for ungaged basins in east and west Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamble, C.R.

    1989-01-01

    A dimensionless hydrograph developed for a variety of basin conditions in Georgia was tested for its applicability to streams in East and West Tennessee by comparing it to a similar dimensionless hydrograph developed for streams in East and West Tennessee. Hydrographs of observed discharge at 83 streams in East Tennessee and 38 in West Tennessee were used in the study. Statistical analyses were performed by comparing simulated (or computed) hydrographs, derived by application of the Georgia dimensionless hydrograph, and dimensionless hydrographs developed from Tennessee data, with the observed hydrographs at 50 and 75% of their peak-flow widths. Results of the tests indicate that the Georgia dimensionless hydrography is virtually the same as the one developed for streams in East Tennessee, but that it is different from the dimensionless hydrograph developed for streams in West Tennessee. Because of the extensive testing of the Georgia dimensionless hydrograph, it was determined to be applicable for East Tennessee, whereas the dimensionless hydrograph developed from data on streams in West Tennessee was determined to be applicable in West Tennessee. As part of the dimensionless hydrograph development, an average lagtime in hours for each study basin, and the volume in inches of flood runoff for each flood event were computed. By use of multiple-regression analysis, equations were developed that relate basin lagtime to drainage area size, basin length, and percent impervious area. Similarly, flood volumes were related to drainage area size, peak discharge, and basin lagtime. These equations, along with the appropriate dimensionless hydrograph, can be used to estimate a typical (average) flood hydrograph and volume for recurrence-intervals up to 100 years at any ungaged site draining less than 50 sq mi in East and West Tennessee. (USGS)

  14. [100 years roentgen rays--a discovery conquers the medical world].

    PubMed

    Freybott, A

    1995-11-01

    In the second half of the nineteenth century the prerequisites for research on the discharge of electricity in gases and the related phenomena were fulfilled. The first gas discharge tubes are associated with names like GeiBler, Hittorf, Crookes, Goldstein, Lenard and Hertz. These researchers studied the electrons escaping from the cathode, magnetic and electrical influence, chemical results, loss of energy and heating up of the anode. Lenard and Jackson were the first to describe phenomena outside the tube, but related the effects to electrons. It was W.C. Roentgen who discovered the ¿unknown rays¿; he systematically measured their penetrating properties and described them a short time thereafter. The scientific world was ready for this discovery, and the new of Roentgen's findings spread across the world in a matter of days, followed by intensive development of this innovation. The first and most important 35 years of development of the different types of X-rays tubes are described.

  15. Climatic and Hydrological Changes of Past 100 Years in Asian Arid Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Zhaodong; Salnikov, Vitaliy; Xu, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The Asian Arid Zone (AAZ) is here defined to include the following regions: northwestern China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Generally speaking, the AAZ has experienced a temperature rising during the past 100 years that was significantly faster than the global average (0.14 ºC per decade). Specifically, the rate was 0.39 ºC per decade in northwestern China (1950-2010), 0.26 ºC per decade in Kazakhstan (1936-2005), 0.22 ºC per decade in Mongolia (1940-2010), 0.29 ºC per decade in Uzbekistan (1950-2005), 0.18 ºC per decade in Turkmenistan (1961-1995). It should be noted that the mountainous parts of AAZ seems to have experienced a slower rate of temperature rising. For example, the rate was 0.10 ºC per decade in Tajikistan (1940-2005) and was 0.08 ºC per decade in Kyrgyzstan (1890-2005). Precipitation has a slight increasing trend in northwestern China, but it has fluctuated along a near-constant line in the rest of the AAZ. Hydrological data from high-elevation basin show that the runoff has been increasing primarily as a result of rising temperature that caused increases in ice melting. A natural decreasing trend of surface runoff in low-elevation basins is undeniable and the decreasing trend is attributable to intensified evaporation under warming conditions. It is true that the total amount of runoff in the Tianshan Mountains and the associated basins has been increased primarily as a result of temperature rising-resulted increases in ice melting. But, approaching to the turning point of glacier-melting supplies to runoff will pose a great threat to socio-economic sustainability and to ecological security. The turning point refers to the transition from increasing runoff to decreasing runoff within ice melting supplied watersheds under a warming climate.

  16. Infrared survey of 50 buildings constructed during 100 years: thermal performances and damage conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ljungberg, Sven-Ake

    1995-03-01

    Different building constructions and craftsmanship give rise to different thermal performance and damage conditions. The building stock of most industrial countries consists of buildings of various age, and constructions, from old historic buildings with heavy stone or wooden construction, to new buildings with heavy or light concrete construction, or modern steel or wooden construction. In this paper the result from a detailed infrared survey of 50 buildings from six Swedish military camps is presented. The presentation is limited to a comparison of thermal performance and damage conditions of buildings of various ages, functions, and constructions, of a building period of more than 100 years. The result is expected to be relevant even to civilian buildings. Infrared surveys were performed during 1992-1993, with airborne, and mobile short- and longwave infrared systems, out- and indoor thermography. Interpretation and analysis of infrared data was performed with interactive image and analyzing systems. Field inspections were carried out with fiber optics system, and by ocular inspections. Air-exchange rate was measured in order to quantify air leakages through the building envelope, indicated in thermograms. The objects studied were single-family houses, barracks, office-, service-, school- and exercise buildings, military hotels and restaurants, aircraft hangars, and ship factory buildings. The main conclusions from this study are that most buildings from 1880 - 1940 have a solid construction with a high quality of craftsmanship, relatively good thermal performance, due to extremely thick walls, and adding insulation at the attic floor. From about 1940 - 1960 the quality of construction, thermal performance and craftsmanship seem to vary a lot. Buildings constructed during the period of 1960 - 1990 have in general the best thermal performance due to a better insulation capacity, however, also one finds here the greatest variety of problems. The result from this

  17. The Hunterian Neurosurgical Laboratory: the first 100 years of neurosurgical research.

    PubMed

    Sampath, P; Long, D M; Brem, H

    2000-01-01

    Modern neurosurgery has long had a strong laboratory foundation, and much of this tradition can be traced to the Hunterian Neurosurgical Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins Hospital. Founded with the basic goals of investigating the causes and symptoms of disease and establishing the crucial role that surgeons may play in the treatment of disease, the Hunterian laboratory has adhered to these tenets, despite the dramatic changes in neurosurgery that have occurred in the last 100 years. Named for the famous English surgeon John Hunter (1728-1793), the Hunterian laboratory was conceived by William Welch and William Halsted as a special laboratory for experimental work in surgery and pathology. In 1904, Harvey Cushing was appointed by Halsted to direct the laboratory. With the three primary goals of student education, veterinary surgery that stressed surgical techniques, and meticulous surgical and laboratory record-keeping, the laboratory was quite productive, introducing the use of physiological saline solutions, describing the anatomic features and function of the pituitary gland, and establishing the field of endocrinology. In addition, the original development of hanging drop tissue culture, fundamental investigations into cerebrospinal fluid, and countless contributions to otolaryngology by Samuel Crowe all occurred during this "crucible" period. In 1912, Cushing was succeeded by Walter Dandy, whose work on experimental hydrocephalus and cerebrospinal fluid circulation led to the development of pneumoencephalography. The early days of neurosurgery evolved with close ties to general surgery, and so did the Hunterian laboratory. After Dandy began devoting his time to clinical work, general surgeons (first Jay McLean and then, in 1922, Ferdinand Lee) became the directors of the laboratory. Between 1928 and 1942, more than 150 original articles were issued from the Hunterian laboratory; these articles described significant advances in surgery, including pioneering

  18. Popular myths about flooding in Western Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Joseph L.

    2011-01-01

    Floods are the most destructive natural hazard in the Nation, causing more deaths and financial loss in the 20th century than any other natural disaster. The most significant 20 riverine floods of the 20th century for which data are available have killed more than 1,843 people and caused more than $50 billion (uninflated) in damages (Perry, 2000). One of the most common means of describing the severity of a flood is a comparison to the "100-year flood." In the last decade, increasing attention has been paid to the fact that some regions, notably the Pacific Northwest, have experienced numerous so-called "100-year" floods in the span of a few years. Part of the confusion stems from the statistical nature of the "100-year flood" (Greene, 1996); however, another part of the confusion is the fact that the statistics are calculated for specific sites (streamgages) on specific rivers, rather than for a region as a whole. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey have begun to investigate how the likelihood of flooding may be determined on a regional basis (Troutman and Karlinger, 2003).

  19. Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serra-Llobet, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land

  20. Flood of August 2, 1972, in the Little Maquoketa River basin, Dubuque County, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinitz, Albert J.

    1973-01-01

    Flood-peak discharges at 12 sites, basin rainfall, a description of the 1972 flood, brief accounts of other major floods in the basin, maximum flood peaks in northeastern Iowa, selected flood-frequency data, and annual floods of record at 5 sites are given.

  1. Simulations of flooding on Tchoutacabouffa River at State Highways 15 and 67 at D'Iberville, Mississippi

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winters, Karl E.

    2000-01-01

    A two-dimensional finite-element surface-water model was used to simulate the effects of the proposed State Highways 15 and 67 relocation on water-surface elevations and flow distributions for the 100-year flood on the Tchoutacabouffa River at D?Iberville, Mississippi. The Mississippi Department of Transportation plans to relocate State Highways 15 and 67 by removing a portion of the existing four-lane highway and constructing a four-lane facility upstream of the existing alignment. The proposed alignment is located on the northern floodplain and will tie into the existing highway about 1,000 feet north of the dual State Highways 15 and 67 bridges. The proposed alignment will intercept flows that cross the existing highway during large floods. Seven scenarios were simulated for the 100-year flood, including four proposed alternative configurations for drainage structures. The model grid was developed by using surveyed floodplain cross sections and channel bathymetry data obtained by using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, in combination with a global positioning system. The model was calibrated and verified by using surveyed flood profiles through the study reach and flood discharge measurements obtained at the State Highways 15 and 67 crossing. Model parameters were adjusted so that the computed water-surface profiles agreed closely with the surveyed flood profiles. Computed water-surface differentials across the proposed alignment near the northern edge of the floodplain for the four alternatives proposed by the Mississippi Department of Transportation ranged from 1.4 to 2.6 feet. Much lower differentials were computed in the vicinity of the main-channel bridge. The computed water-surface elevation at McCully Drive, upstream of the proposed alignment, was 17.3 feet for existing conditions. Computed water-surface elevations at McCully Drive for the proposed alternatives ranged from 17.3 to 17.8 feet.

  2. A geochemical record of environmental changes in sediments from Sishili Bay, northern Yellow Sea, China: anthropogenic influence on organic matter sources and composition over the last 100 years.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yujue; Liu, Dongyan; Richard, Pierre; Li, Xin

    2013-12-15

    Total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ(13)C and δ(15)N were measured in sediment cores at three sites in Sishili Bay, China, to track the impacts of anthropogenic activities on the coastal environment over the last 100 years. The increased TOC and TN in the upper section of sediment cores indicated a eutrophic process since 1975. In comparison, the TOC and TN in the sediment core near to a scallop aquaculture area displayed a much slower increase, indicating the contribution of scallop aquaculture in mitigating eutrophication. Combined information from δ(13)C, δ(15)N and TOC:TN indicated an increased terrestrial signal, although organic matter sources in Sishili Bay featured a mixture of terrestrial and marine sources, with phytoplankton being dominant. Increased fertilizer use since 1970s contributed to the eutrophic process in Sishili Bay since 1975, and increased sewage discharge from 1990s has added to this process.

  3. Decadal flood frequency analyses: Case study of station Litija on the Sava river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bezak, Nejc; Brilly, Mitja; Sraj, Mojca

    2013-04-01

    method of moments. The highest estimated discharge values were characteristic of sample 1981-2010. Difference between the estimated discharge values for the sample 1981-2010 and the second largest sample (1953-2010 for the LP3 and 1971-2000 for the GEV) for the return period of 100 years was about 600 m3/s (25 %) for the LP3 distribution and approximately 300 m3/s (13 %) for the generalized extreme value distribution. The data sample 1941-1970 gave the smallest estimated discharge values for both chosen distribution functions (LP3 and GEV). A positive trend of number of the extreme events in the last decades is the reason for the highest estimated discharge values in the period 1981-2010.

  4. Numerical simulation of flood inundation using a well-balanced kinetic scheme for the shallow water equations with bulk recharge and discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ersoy, Mehmet; Lakkis, Omar; Townsend, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The flow of water in rivers and oceans can, under general assumptions, be efficiently modelled using Saint-Venant's shallow water system of equations (SWE). SWE is a hyperbolic system of conservation laws (HSCL) which can be derived from a starting point of incompressible Navier-Stokes. A common difficulty in the numerical simulation of HSCLs is the conservation of physical entropy. Work by Audusse, Bristeau, Perthame (2000) and Perthame, Simeoni (2001), proposed numerical SWE solvers known as kinetic schemes (KSs), which can be shown to have desirable entropy-consistent properties, and are thus called well-balanced schemes. A KS is derived from kinetic equations that can be integrated into the SWE. In flood risk assessment models the SWE must be coupled with other equations describing interacting meteorological and hydrogeological phenomena such as rain and groundwater flows. The SWE must therefore be appropriately modified to accommodate source and sink terms, so kinetic schemes are no longer valid. While modifications of SWE in this direction have been recently proposed, e.g., Delestre (2010), we depart from the extant literature by proposing a novel model that is "entropy-consistent" and naturally extends the SWE by respecting its kinetic formulation connections. This allows us to derive a system of partial differential equations modelling flow of a one-dimensional river with both a precipitation term and a groundwater flow model to account for potential infiltration and recharge. We exhibit numerical simulations of the corresponding kinetic schemes. These simulations can be applied to both real world flood prediction and the tackling of wider issues on how climate and societal change are affecting flood risk.

  5. Floods at Mount Clemens, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiitala, S.W.; Ash, Arlington D.

    1962-01-01

    The approximate areas inundated during the flood of April 5-6, 1947, by Clinton River, North Branch and Middle Branch of Clinton River, and Harrington Drain, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., are shown on a topographic map base to record the flood hazard in graphical form. The flood of April 1947 is the highest known since 1934 and probably since 1902. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt was made to define their probable overflow limits.The Clinton River Cut-Off Canal, a flood-relief channel which diverts flow directly into Lake St. Clair from a point about 1500 feet downstream from Gratiot Avenue (about 9 miles upstream from the mouth) has been in operation since October 1951. The approximate limits of overflow that would results from a flood equivalent in discharge to that of April 1947, and occurring with the Cut-Off Canal in operation, are also shown. Although the Cut-Off Canal may reduce the frequency and depth of flooding it will not necessarily eliminate future flooding in the area. Improvements and additions to the drainage systems in the basin, expanding urbanization, new highways, and other cultural changes may influence the inundation pattern of future floods.The preparation of this flood inundation map was financed through a cooperative agreement between Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., and the U.S. Geological Survey.Backwater curves used to define the profile for a hypothetical flood on the Clinton River downstream from Moravian Drive, equivalent in discharge to the 1947 flood, but occurring with the present Cut-Off Canal in operation; flood stage established at the gaging station on Clinton River at Mount Clemens; and supplementary floodmark elevations were furnished by the Corps of Engineers.Bench-mark elevations and field survey data, used in the analysis of floods on Harrington Drain, were furnished by the Macomb County Drain Commission.

  6. Structural master plan of flood mitigation measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heidari, A.

    2009-01-01

    Flood protection is one of the practical methods in damage reduction. Although it not possible to be completely protected from flood disaster but major part of damages can be reduced by mitigation plans. In this paper, the optimum flood mitigation master plan is determined by economic evaluation in trading off between the construction costs and expected value of damage reduction as the benefits. Size of the certain mitigation alternative is also be obtained by risk analysis by accepting possibility of flood overtopping. Different flood mitigation alternatives are investigated from various aspects in the Dez and Karun river floodplain areas as a case study in south west of IRAN. The results show that detention dam and flood diversion are the best alternatives of flood mitigation methods as well as enforcing the flood control purpose of upstream multipurpose reservoirs. Dyke and levees are not mostly justifiable because of negative impact on down stream by enhancing routed flood peak discharge magnitude and flood damages as well.

  7. Storage and flood routing

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carter, R.W.; Godfrey, R.G.

    1960-01-01

    The basic equations used in flood routing are developed from the law of continuity. In each method the assumptions are discussed to enable the user to select an appropriate technique. In the stage-storage method the storage is related to the mean gage height in the reach under consideration. In the discharge-storage method the storage is determined, from weighted values of inflow and outflow discharge. In the reservoir-storage method the storage is considered as a function of outflow discharge alone. A detailed example is given for each method to illustrate that particular technique.

  8. When and how long to flood for insect control

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Flooding in late spring (late May or early July) can remove tremendous numbers of arthropods from cranberry beds. For over 100 years, the Wisconsin cranberry industry has used flooding as a way to suppress arthropod populations. One critical element of this strategy is the trade-off between lethalit...

  9. A Lower Rhine flood chronology based on the sedimentary record of an abandoned channel fill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toonen, W. H. J.; Winkels, T. G.; Prins, M. A.; de Groot, L. V.; Bunnik, F. P. M.; Cohen, K. M.

    2012-04-01

    The Bienener Altrhein is an abandoned channel of the Lower Rhine (Germany). Following a late 16th century abandonment event, the channel was disconnected from the main stream and the oxbow lake gradually filled with 8 meters of flood deposits. This process still continues today. During annual floods, a limited proportion of overbank discharge is routed across the oxbow lake. Large floods produce individual flood layers, which are visually recognized in the sedimentary sequence. Based on the sedimentary characteristics of these event layers, we created a ~450-year flood chronology for the Lower Rhine. Laser-diffraction grain size measurements were used to assess relative flood magnitudes for individual flood event layers. Continuous sampling at a ~2 cm interval provided a high-resolution record, resolving the record at an annual scale. Standard descriptive techniques (e.g., mean grain size, 95th percentile, % sand) and the more advanced 'end member modelling' were applied to zoom in on the coarse particle bins in the grain size distributions, which are indicative of higher flow velocities. The most recent part of the record was equated to modern discharge measurements. This allows to establish relations between deposited grain size characteristics in the abandoned channel and flood magnitudes in the main river. This relation can also be applied on flood event layers from previous centuries, for which only water level measurements and historical descriptions exist. This makes this method relevant to expand data series used in flood frequency analysis from 100 years to more than 400 years. To date event-layers in the rapidly accumulated sequence, we created an age-depth model that uses organic content variations to tune sedimentation rates between the known basal and top ages. No suitable identifiable organic material for radiocarbon dating was found in the cores. Instead, palynological results (introduction of agricultural species) and palaeomagnetic secular

  10. Predicting Flood Hazards in Systems with Multiple Flooding Mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luke, A.; Schubert, J.; Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from a single mechanism (riverine flooding) is a relatively well defined procedure with specific guidance from agencies such as FEMA and USACE. However, there is little guidance in delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from multiple mechanisms such as storm surge, waves, tidal influence, and riverine flooding. In this study, a new flood mapping method which accounts for multiple extremes occurring simultaneously is developed and exemplified. The study site in which the method is employed is the Tijuana River Estuary (TRE) located in Southern California adjacent to the U.S./Mexico border. TRE is an intertidal coastal estuary that receives freshwater flows from the Tijuana River. Extreme discharge from the Tijuana River is the primary driver of flooding within TRE, however tide level and storm surge also play a significant role in flooding extent and depth. A comparison between measured flows at the Tijuana River and ocean levels revealed a correlation between extreme discharge and ocean height. Using a novel statistical method based upon extreme value theory, ocean heights were predicted conditioned up extreme discharge occurring within the Tijuana River. This statistical technique could also be applied to other systems in which different factors are identified as the primary drivers of flooding, such as significant wave height conditioned upon tide level, for example. Using the predicted ocean levels conditioned upon varying return levels of discharge as forcing parameters for the 2D hydraulic model BreZo, the 100, 50, 20, and 10 year floodplains were delineated. The results will then be compared to floodplains delineated using the standard methods recommended by FEMA for riverine zones with a downstream ocean boundary.

  11. Flood characteristics of urban watersheds in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, Vernon B.; Thomas, W.O.; Stricker, V.A.; Wilson, K.V.

    1983-01-01

    more saturated during large storms. Other parameters in the seven-parameter equations include drainage area size, channel slope, rainfall intensity, lake and reservoir storage, and basin lag time. These factors are all statistically significant and provide logical indices of basin conditions. The three-parameter equations include only the three most significant parameters: rural discharge, basin-development factor, and drainage area size. All three sets of regression equations provide unbiased estimates of urban flood frequency. The seven-parameter regression equations without basin lag time have average standard errors of regression varying from ? 37 percent for the 5-year flood to ? 44 percent for the 100-year flood and ? 49 percent for the 500-year flood. The other two sets of regression equations have similar accuracy. Several tests for bias, sensitivity, and hydrologic consistency are included which support the conclusion that the equations are useful throughout the United States. All estimating equations were developed from data collected on drainage basins where temporary in-channel storage, due to highway embankments, was not significant. Consequently, estimates made with these equations do not account for the reducing effect of this temporary detention storage.

  12. Floods in the Skunk River basin, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinitz, Albert J.; Wiitala, Sulo Werner

    1978-01-01

    Evaluation of flood hazards, and the planning, design, and operation of various facilities on flood plains require information on floods. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitudes and frequency, and flood profiles for the Skunk River and some of its tributaries. It covers the Skunk -- South Skunk Rivers to Ames, and the lower reaches of tributaries as flows: Squaw Creek, 8.2 miles; Indian Creek, 11.6 miles; North Skunk River, 83.2 miles; Cedar Creek, 55.8 miles; and Big Creek, 21.7 miles.

  13. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iceland, Charles

    2015-04-01

    As population growth and economic growth take place, and as climate change accelerates, many regions across the globe are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to flooding. A recent OECD study of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding found that 40 million people were exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event in 2005, and the total value of exposed assets was about US 3,000 billion, or 5% of global GDP. By the 2070s, those numbers were estimated to increase to 150 million people and US 35,000 billion, or roughly 9% of projected global GDP. Impoverished people in developing countries are particularly at risk because they often live in flood-prone areas and lack the resources to respond. WRI and its Dutch partners - Deltares, IVM-VU University Amsterdam, Utrecht University, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - are in the initial stages of developing a robust set of river flood and coastal storm surge risk measures that show the extent of flooding under a variety of scenarios (both current and future), together with the projected human and economic impacts of these flood scenarios. These flood risk data and information will be accessible via an online, easy-to-use Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. We will also investigate the viability, benefits, and costs of a wide array of flood risk reduction measures that could be implemented in a variety of geographic and socio-economic settings. Together, the activities we propose have the potential for saving hundreds of thousands of lives and strengthening the resiliency and security of many millions more, especially those who are most vulnerable. Mr. Iceland will present Version 1.0 of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer and provide a preview of additional elements of the Analyzer to be released in the coming years.

  14. Development of a Flood-Warning System and Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Blanchard River in Findlay, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitehead, Matthew T.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

    2009-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps of the Blanchard River in Findlay, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Findlay, Ohio. The maps, which correspond to water levels at the USGS streamgage at Findlay (04189000), were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The USGS reestablished one streamgage and added another on the Blanchard River upstream of Findlay. Additionally, the USGS established one streamgage each on Eagle and Lye Creeks, tributaries to the Blanchard River. The stream-gage sites were equipped with rain gages and multiple forms of telemetry. Data from these gages can be used by emergency management personnel to determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles computed by means of a step-backwater model were prepared and calibrated to a recent flood with a return period exceeding 100 years. The hydraulic model was then used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 11 flood stages with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately 2 to 100 years in recurrence interval. The simulated flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate the flood-inundation areas. Maps of Findlay showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods.

  15. Re-visiting spring flooding as an IPM approach in Wisconsin cranberries

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    For over 100 years, flooding has been used to suppress arthropod pests of cranberries, yet questions remain as to the trade-off between pest control and flood-induced plant damage. In Wisconsin, there is much interest in the spring flood as a means to not only reduce pest populations, but also to fa...

  16. Looking toward the Future: New Research Helps Black Sororities and Fraternities Consider New Governing Structures for the Next 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruffins, Paul

    2004-01-01

    From a historical perspective, it's interesting to note that at their 100-year mark Black fraternities and sororities are facing some of the very same political criticisms encountered half a century ago. The Black Greeks' ability to be a greater force for social change is also constrained by the basic internal structures of the organizations…

  17. The Bee Disease Diagnostic Service - 100 Years and Growing at the USDA Bee Research laboratory, Beltsville, MD

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This article discusses the history of honey bee research in the Washington, D.C. area including the 100 year old bee disease diagnostic service available for beekeepers and apiary inspectors. This service provides the Bee Research Laboratory with first-hand knowledge of the problems facing the beek...

  18. Johnstown-Western Pennsylvania Storms and Floods of July 19-20, 1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoxit, L. Ray; Maddox, Robert A.; Chappell, Charles F.; Brua, Stan A.

    1982-01-01

    Widespread thunderstorms associated with two major squall lines, moved across Pennsylvania between the afternoon of July 19 and morning of July 20, 1977. The western part of outflow boundary produced by the second line became almost stationary in western Pennsylvania and resulted in 6 to 9 hours of nearly continuous thunderstorms. More than 6 inches of rain fell over a 400-square-mile area during this period. In the hills just north and east of Johnstown, rainfall totals were as much as 12 inches. Flash flooding was severe as the storms moved slowly southeastward across the Allegheny, Susquehanna, and Potomac River basins. Peak natural runoff rates greater than 1,000 cubic feet per second per square mile were common for streams draining up to 10 square miles. At eight gaging stations, recurrence intervals for the peak discharges were estimated to be 100 years or more. In addition to high surface runoff, some disasterous flooding also resulted from the failure of seven earthfill-gravity-type dams. At least 78 deaths were attributed to the flooding and eight persons were still listed as missing 1 year later. Total damages in the eight-county flood area were extremely high, possibly exceeding $500 million.

  19. Regional flood probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100-year flood will occur on the average every 4,5 years.

  20. Towards a robust calving and melt-history for Helheim Glacier, SE Greenland, for the last 100 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, T. J.; Ellegaard, M.; Markussen, T. N.

    2013-12-01

    Observations of increased ice-discharge from tidewater glaciers in Greenland in the early and mid 2000s has led to concern about a possible rapid loss of ice from the ice sheet in a scenario with increasing air and ocean water temperatures. In order to evaluate the strength and uniqueness of the observed increase a robust data-set on the temporal variation of calving and melt is strongly needed. The only reliable data prior to the period of aerial photographs and instrumental observations is the archive preserved at the seabed in the fjords and coastal waters off the ice sheet. Establishment of core-chronology is central in studies of these archives and is based on Pb-210 dating which will reach approx. 100 years back in time. Establishment of a detailed and accurate core-chronology by means of Pb-210 dating and Cs-137 peaks is by no means a trivial task in environments influenced by episodic deposition of ice-rafted debris (IRD). The deposition will have a relatively large component of random variability which could be mistaken for actual changes in sedimentation rate, especially so if only one or a few cores are analyzed. To increase the reliability of the calving reconstruction, a total of 13 cores have been sampled in this study in Sermilik Fjord in August 2012 at depths between approximately 700 to 900 m. Eleven of the cores are from within the central basin north of 66 degrees North and two are from the outer part of the fjord south of that line. CTD-profiles and measurements of floc size in situ indicate that the sedimentation is significantly influenced by deposition of IRD and temporal changes in sediment accumulation rates will therefore be examined for all the cores. The cores are also being analyzed for their content of dinoflagellate cysts and diatoms in order to examine possible temporal changes in ocean water temperature in the fjord. So far (August 2013) six cores have been studied and the total average accumulation rate for each year since 1925 has

  1. Gallbladder removal - laparoscopic - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Cholecystectomy laparoscopic - discharge; Cholelithiasis - laparoscopic discharge; Biliary calculus - laparoscopic discharge; Gallstones - laparoscopic discharge; Cholecystitis - laparoscopic discharge

  2. Estimating Non-stationary Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, X.; Cohn, T. A.; Stedinger, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Flood risk is usually described by a probability distribution for annual maximum streamflow which is assumed not to change with time. Federal, state and local governments in the United States are demanding guidance on flood frequency estimates that account for climate change. If a trend exists in peak flow series, ignoring it could result in large quantile estimator bias, while trying to estimate a trend will increase the flood quantile estimator's variance. Thus the issue is, what bias-variance tradeoff should we accept? This paper discusses approaches to flood frequency analysis (FFA) when flood series have trends. GCMs describe how annual runoff might vary over sub-continental scales, but this information is nearly useless for FFA in small watersheds. A LP3 Monte Carlo analysis and a re-sampling study of 100-year flood estimation (25- and 50-year projections) compares the performance of five methods: FFA as prescribed in national guidelines (Bulletin 17B), assumes the flood series is stationary and follows a log-Pearson type III (LP3) distribution; Fitting a LP3 distribution with time-varying parameters that include future trends in mean and perhaps variance, where slopes are assumed known; Fitting a LP3 distribution with time-varying parameters that capture future trends in mean and perhaps variance, where slopes are estimated from annual peak flow series; Employing only the most recent 30 years of flood records to fit a LP3 distribution; Applying a safety factor to the 100-year flood estimator (e.g. 25% increase). The 100-year flood estimator of method 2 has the smallest log-space mean squared error, though it is unlikely that the true trend would be known. Method 3 is only recommended over method 1 for large trends (≥ 0.5% per year). The 100-year flood estimators of method 1, 4, and 5 often have poor accuracy. Clearly, flood risk assessment will be a challenge in an uncertain world.

  3. Managing Floods and Resources at the Arroyo Las Positas

    SciTech Connect

    Sanchez, L; Van Hattem, M; Mathews, S

    2002-03-05

    Engineers and water resource professionals are challenged with protecting facilities from flood events within environmental resource protection, regulatory, and economic constraints. One case in point is the Arroyo Las Positas (ALP), an intermittent stream that traverses the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in Livermore, California. Increased runoff from post-drought rainfall, upstream development, and new perennial discharges from LLNL activities have resulted in increased dry weather flows and wetland vegetation. These new conditions have recently begun to provide improved habitat for the federally threatened California red-legged frog (Rana aurora draytonii; CRLF), but the additional vegetation diminishes the channel's drainage capacity and increases flood risk. When LLNL proposed to re-grade the channel to reestablish the 100-year flood capacity, traditional dredging practices were no longer being advocated by environmental regulatory agencies. LLNL therefore designed a desilting maintenance plan to protect LLNL facility areas from flooding, while minimizing impacts to wetland resources and habitat. The result was a combination of structural upland improvements and the ALP Five Year Maintenance Plan (Maintenance Plan), which includes phased desilting in segments so that the entire ALP is desilted after five years. A unique feature of the Maintenance Plan is the variable length of the segments designed to minimize LLNL's impact on CRLF movement. State and federal permits also added monitoring requirements and additional constraints on desilting activities. Two years into the Maintenance Plan, LLNL is examining the lessons learned on the cost-effectiveness of these maintenance measures and restrictions and reevaluating the direction of future maintenance activities.

  4. Quantification of uncertainties in the 100-year flow at an ungaged site near a gaged station and its application in Georgia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Huidae; Bones, Emma

    2016-08-01

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency has introduced the concept of the "1-percent plus" flow to incorporate various uncertainties in estimation of the 100-year or 1-percent flow. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, no clear directions for calculating the 1-percent plus flow have been defined in the literature. Although information about standard errors of estimation and prediction is provided along with the regression equations that are often used to estimate the 1-percent flow at ungaged sites, uncertainty estimation becomes more complicated when there is a nearby gaged station because regression flows and the peak flow estimate from a gage analysis should be weighted to compute the weighted estimate of the 1-percent flow. In this study, an equation for calculating the 1-percent plus flow at an ungaged site near a gaged station is analytically derived. Also, a detailed process is introduced for calculating the 1-percent plus flow for an ungaged site near a gaged station in Georgia as an example and a case study is performed. This study provides engineers and practitioners with a method that helps them better assess flood risks and develop mitigation plans accordingly.

  5. Zonation of flood production potential in Kabutar Ali Chai watershed using SCS model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jananeh, Keristineh

    2015-04-01

    watershed were estimated experimentally using the SCS method, based on which, A3 and A4 sub-basins have the highest peak discharge (15.55 and 19.44, respectively), which can be one of the flood production factors in this watershed. Meanwhile, the A1 sub-basin in the southern end of the watershed has the lowest peak discharge with low flood production potential. Finally, considering the runoff height and discharge, as well as the determined CN number, the flood production potential was calculated for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 year return periods. According to the these flood-potential maps, A3 sub-basin shows high flood risk in its northern, central and southern parts. A2 and A4 sub-basins have lower flood risk, respectively, and the A1 sub-basin shows the lowest flood potential, which is due to the presence of permeable alluvial sediments and the widening of the stream bed. It was also revealed that the land slope is not the sole effective factor in flood production, but lithology and vegetation are also efficient.

  6. Green-blue water in the city: quantification of impact of source control versus end-of-pipe solutions on sewer and river floods.

    PubMed

    De Vleeschauwer, K; Weustenraad, J; Nolf, C; Wolfs, V; De Meulder, B; Shannon, K; Willems, P

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization and climate change trends put strong pressures on urban water systems. Temporal variations in rainfall, runoff and water availability increase, and need to be compensated for by innovative adaptation strategies. One of these is stormwater retention and infiltration in open and/or green spaces in the city (blue-green water integration). This study evaluated the efficiency of three adaptation strategies for the city of Turnhout in Belgium, namely source control as a result of blue-green water integration, retention basins located downstream of the stormwater sewers, and end-of-pipe solutions based on river flood control reservoirs. The efficiency of these options is quantified by the reduction in sewer and river flood frequencies and volumes, and sewer overflow volumes. This is done by means of long-term simulations (100-year rainfall simulations) using an integrated conceptual sewer-river model calibrated to full hydrodynamic sewer and river models. Results show that combining open, green zones in the city with stormwater retention and infiltration for only 1% of the total city runoff area would lead to a 30 to 50% reduction in sewer flood volumes for return periods in the range 10-100 years. This is due to the additional surface storage and infiltration and consequent reduction in urban runoff. However, the impact of this source control option on downstream river floods is limited. Stormwater retention downstream of the sewer system gives a strong reduction in peak discharges to the receiving river. However due to the difference in response time between the sewer and river systems, this does not lead to a strong reduction in river flood frequency. The paper shows the importance of improving the interface between urban design and water management, and between sewer and river flood management.

  7. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risk in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, K. M.; Diermanse, F. L. M.; Beckers, J. V. L.

    2014-10-01

    This paper discusses a new method for flood risk assessment in river deltas. Flood risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risk must be taken into account. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based flood risk analysis framework for policy making, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes effects from hydrodynamic interaction on flood risk. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risk in the Rhine-Meuse delta.

  8. Hydro-geological process chain for building a flood scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longoni, Laura; Brambilla, Davide; Papini, Monica; Ivanov, Vladislav; Radice, Alessio

    2015-04-01

    Flash-flood events in mountain environments are often related to the transport of large amounts of sediment from the slopes through the stream network. As a consequence, significant morphological changes may occur in rivers during a single, short-duration event, with possibly significant effect on the water elevation. An appropriate hazard evaluation would therefore require the thorough modelling of the flood-related phenomena and of their interconnection. In this context, this work is focused on an attempt of integrated modelling of event-scale water and sediment transport processes for a reference case-study of the Mallero basin in the Italian Alps. The area of the catchments is about 320 square km, the main stream being almost 25 km long and having slopes in the range from 1 to 40 %. A town (Sondrio) is present at the downstream end of the river. In 1987, Sondrio was at risk of inundation due to a combined effect of relatively high discharge and aggradation of the river bed up to 5 m (almost equal to the bankfull depth in the in-town reach). A 100-year flood scenario was produced including (i) a sediment supply model, (ii) a one-dimensional, hydro-morphologic model of the river bed evolution, and (iii) an estimation of the outflowing discharge at river sections where the bank elevation was exceeded by water. Rainfall-runoff transformation was not included into the modelling chain as the 100-year water hydrograph was already available from previous studies. For the sediment production model, a downscaling in time of the Gavrilovic equation was attempted using rainfall estimation from depth-duration-frequency curves, which furnished values in reasonable agreement with some available data. The hydro-morphologic model, based on the Saint-Venant and Exner equations, was preliminarily calibrated against data for bed aggradation measured in 1987. A point of separation was chosen at an appropriate location in the basin, and the sediment yield estimated upstream of this

  9. Pancreatitis - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Chronic pancreatitis - discharge; Pancreatitis - chronic - discharge; Pancreatic insufficiency - discharge; Acute pancreatitis - discharge ... fluids through an intravenous (IV) tube in your vein and nutrition through a feeding tube or IV. ...

  10. The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malamud, B.D.; Turcotte, D.L.; Barton, C.C.

    1996-01-01

    Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

  11. Simulation of Flood Profiles for Fivemile Creek at Tarrant, Alabama, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, K.G.; Hedgecock, T.S.

    2007-01-01

    A one-dimensional step-backwater model was used to simulate flooding conditions for Fivemile Creek at Tarrant, Alabama. The 100-year flood stage published in the current flood insurance study for Tarrant by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was significantly exceeded by the March 2000 and May 2003 floods in this area. A peak flow of 14,100 cubic feet per second was computed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the May 2003 flood in the vicinity of Lawson Road. Using this estimated peak flow, flood-plain surveys with associated roughness coefficients, and the surveyed high-water profile for the May 2003 flood, a flow model was calibrated to closely match this known event. The calibrated model was then used to simulate flooding for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval floods. The results indicate that for the 100-year recurrence interval, the flood profile is about 2.5 feet higher, on average, than the profile published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The absolute maximum and minimum difference is 6.80 feet and 0.67 foot, respectively. All water-surface elevations computed for the 100-year flood are higher than those published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, except for cross section H. The results of this study provide the community with flood-profile information that can be used for existing flood-plain mitigation, future development, and safety plans for the city.

  12. Cane Creek flood-flow characteristics at State Route 30 near Spencer, Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamble, Charles R.

    1983-01-01

    The Tennessee Department of Transportation has constructed a new bridge and approaches on State Route 30 over Cane Creek near Spencer, Tennessee. The old bridge and its approaches were fairly low, permitting considerable flow over the road during high floods. The new bridge and its approaches are considerably higher, causing different flow conditions at the site. Analysis of the effects of the new bridge, as compared to the old bridge, on floods of the magnitude of the May 27, 1973, flood is presented. The May 27, 1973, flood was greater than a 100-year flood. Analysis of the 50- and 100-year floods for the new bridge are also presented. Results of the study indicate that the new construction will increase the water-surface elevation for a flood equal to the May 27, 1973, flood by approximately 1 foot upstream from bridge. (USGS)

  13. Channel response to extreme floods: Insights on controlling factors from six mountain rivers in northern Apennines, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surian, Nicola; Righini, Margherita; Lucía, Ana; Nardi, Laura; Amponsah, William; Benvenuti, Marco; Borga, Marco; Cavalli, Marco; Comiti, Francesco; Marchi, Lorenzo; Rinaldi, Massimo; Viero, Alessia

    2016-11-01

    This work addresses the geomorphic response of mountain rivers to extreme floods, exploring the relationships between morphological changes and controlling factors. The research was conducted on six tributaries of the Magra River (northern Apennines, Italy) whose catchments were affected by an extreme flood (estimated recurrence interval > 100 years in most of the basins) on 25 October 2011. An integrated approach was deployed to study this flood, including (i) analysis of channel width changes by comparing aerial photographs taken before and after the flood, (ii) estimate of peak discharges in ungauged streams, (iii) detailed mapping of landslides and analysis of their connectivity with the channel network. Channel widening occurred in 35 reaches out of 39. In reaches with channel slope < 4% (here defined as nonsteep reaches), average and maximum ratios of post-flood and pre-flood channel width were 5.2 and 19.7 (i.e., channel widened from 4 to 82 m), respectively. In steep reaches (slope ≥ 4%), widening was slightly less intense (i.e., average width ratio = 3.4, maximum width ratio = 9.6). The relationships between the degree of channel widening and seven controlling factors were explored at subreach scale by using multiple regression models. In the steep subreaches characterized by higher confinement, the degree of channel widening (i.e., width ratio) showed relatively strong relationships with cross-sectional stream power, unit stream power (calculated based on pre-flood channel width), and lateral confinement, with coefficients of multiple determination (R2) ranging between 0.43 and 0.67. The models for the nonsteep subreaches provided a lower explanation of widening variability, with R2 ranging from 0.30 to 0.38; in these reaches a significant although weak relation was found between the degree of channel widening and the hillslope area supplying sediment to the channels. Results indicate that hydraulic variables alone are not sufficient to satisfactorily

  14. Flood-frequency and detention-storage characteristics of Bear Branch watershed, Murfreesboro, Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Outlaw, G.S.

    1996-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model [DR3M] was applied to a 2.27-square-mile portion of Bear Branch watershed at Murfreesboro, Tennessee, to demonstrate the application of this model to small urban watersheds in central Tennessee. Kinematic wave theory was used to route excess rainfall overland and through a branched system of stream channels. The model was calibrated with hyetographs from two raingages, hydrographs from two streamflow gages, and peak-stage elevations from two crest-stage gages that were operated in the watershed from March 1989 through July 1992. Standard errors of estimate for peak discharge at Northfield Boulevard and Compton Road are 41.1 and 92.2 percent, respectively. Standard errors of estimate for runoff volumes at Northfield Boulevard and Compton Road are 53.5 and 97.6 percent, respectively. The calibrated model was used to simulate flood hydrographs for 73 large storms occurring during the period 1901-1990 and the simulated flood peaks were used to develop flood-frequency relations for present (1992) conditions in the watershed. Flood discharges for the 100-year recurrence-interval storm were estimated as 350 cubic feet per second at Northfield Boulevard, 1,000 cubic feet per second upstream of DeJarnett Lane, 610 cubic feet per second downstream of DeJarnett Lane, 800 cubic feet per second upstream of Osborne Lane, 790 cubic feet per second downstream of Osborne Lane, and 1,000 cubic feet per second at Compton Road. The effect of detention storage on flood hydrographs was simulated at several locations in the watershed. Detention storage upstream of DeJarnett Lane significantly reduces downstream flood peaks, whereas detention storage upstream of Osborne Lane has almost no effect. The results of this study indicate that the Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model could be an important tool for testing the effects of future development and flood storage alternatives on flooding in small urban

  15. Flood of September 22, 1998, in Arecibo and Utuado, Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Torres-Sierra, Heriberto

    2002-01-01

    exceeded 2.5 meters. Frequency analysis indicates that flood-peak discharges equaled or exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval at five streamflow-gaging stations in the Rio Grande de Arecibo Basin.

  16. Global flood risk response to large-scale land-ocean-atmospheric interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. J.; Dettinger, M. D.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2012-12-01

    medium term disaster contingency planning, and to prioritizing adaptation financing in most "at risk" regions, is being investigated through ongoing dialogue and collaboration with Red Cross Red Crescent Research Centre and the World Bank. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge, using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 100 years, under EN conditions, neutral conditions, and LN conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent the vulnerability to flooding.

  17. Floods in the English River basin, Iowa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heinitz, A.J.; Riddle, D.E.

    1981-01-01

    Information describing floods is essential for proper planning, design, and operation of bridges and other structures on or over streams and their flood plains. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the English River and some of its tributaries. It covers the English River, the North English River to near Guernsey, the south Eaglish River to Barnes City and the lower reaches of the Biddle English and Deep Rivers

  18. Urban sprawl and flooding in southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rantz, S.E.

    1970-01-01

    The floods of January 1969 in south-coastal California provide a timely example of the effect of urban sprawl on flood damage. Despite recordbreaking, or near recordbreaking, stream discharges, damage was minimal in the older developed areas that are protected against inundation and debris damage by carefully planned flood-control facilities, including debris basins and flood-conveyance channels. By contrast, heavy damage occurred in areas of more recent urban sprawl, where the hazards of inundation and debris or landslide damage have not been taken into consideration, and where the improvement and development of drainage or flood-control facilities have not kept pace with expanding urbanization.

  19. Annual exceedance probabilities of the peak discharges of 2011 at streamgages in Vermont and selected streamgages in New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and northeastern New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olson, Scott A.; Bent, Gardner C.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, determined annual exceedance probabilities for peak discharges occurring during the 2011 water year (October 1 to September 30) at streamgages in Vermont and selected streamgages in New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, and northeastern New York. This report presents the 2011 water year peak discharges at 145 streamgages in the study area and provides the results of the analyses of the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharges at 135 of the 145 streamgages. The annual exceedance probabilities for the 2011 water year peak discharges also are presented. Snowmelt and near record rainfall led to flooding across northern Vermont on April 27 and 28, 2011. At three streamgages with more than 10 years of record, the April rain event resulted in the peak discharge of record. At seven streamgages, the peak discharge resulting from this event had an annual exceedance probability less than or equal to 1 percent. In early May 2011, new peak stage records were set at two Lake Champlain gages with more than 100 years of record. At the Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vermont, gage, the water surface reached 102.79 feet (ft) (North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88)) on May 6, 2011, and at the Richelieu River (Lake Champlain) at Rouses Point, New York, gage, the water surface reached 102.75 ft NAVD 88. Record-breaking rainfall in late May produced additional flooding across northern Vermont on May 26 and 27, 2011. Four streamgages in northwestern Vermont recorded peak-of-record discharges as a result of this flooding. At three streamgages, the peak discharges from this event had an annual exceedance probability less than or equal to 1 percent. From August 28 to 29, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene delivered rainfall totals ranging from about 3 to more than 10 inches, which resulted in extensive flooding and new period-of-record peak discharges at 37

  20. Peak-flow frequency and extreme flood potential for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, central Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer

    1996-01-01

    The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River are in an area periodically threatened by large storms and floods. Many storms exceeding 10 inches (in.) in depth have been documented in the area, including some with depths approaching 40 in. These storms typically produce large peak discharges that often threaten lives and property. The storms sometimes occur with little warning. Steep stream slopes and thin soils characteristic of the area often cause large peak discharges and rapid movement of floods through watersheds. A procedure to predict the discharge associated with large floods is needed for the area so that appropriate peak discharges can be used in the design of flood plains, bridges, and other structures.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), studied flood peaks for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes of central Texas. The Highland Lakes are a series of reservoirs constructed on the Colorado River. The chain of lakes (and year each was completed) comprises Lake Buchanan (1937), Inks Lake (1938), Lake Lyndon B. Johnson (1950), Lake Marble Falls (1951), Lake Travis (1942), and lake Austin (1890). The study area (fig. 1), which includes all or parts of 21 counties in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, was selected because most streams in the area have flood characteristics similar to streams entering the Highland Lakes. The entire study area is in a region subject to large storms.The purpose of this report is to present (1) peak-flow frequency data for stations and equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, and (2) a technique to estimate the extreme flood peak discharges for the large streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes. Peak-flow frequency in this report refers to the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2,5, 10,25,50, and 100 years. A large stream is defined as having a contributing drainage

  1. Progressive incision of the Channeled Scablands by outburst floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larsen, Isaac J.; Lamb, Michael P.

    2016-10-01

    The surfaces of Earth and Mars contain large bedrock canyons that were carved by catastrophic outburst floods. Reconstructing the magnitude of these canyon-forming floods is essential for understanding the ways in which floods modify planetary surfaces, the hydrology of early Mars and abrupt changes in climate. Flood discharges are often estimated by assuming that the floods filled the canyons to their brims with water; however, an alternative hypothesis is that canyon morphology adjusts during incision such that bed shear stresses exceed the threshold for erosion by a small amount. Here we show that accounting for erosion thresholds during canyon incision results in near-constant discharges that are five- to ten-fold smaller than full-to-the-brim estimates for Moses Coulee, a canyon in the Channeled Scablands, which was carved during the Pleistocene by the catastrophic Missoula floods in eastern Washington, USA. The predicted discharges are consistent with flow-depth indicators from gravel bars within the canyon. In contrast, under the assumption that floods filled canyons to their brims, a large and monotonic increase in flood discharge is predicted as the canyon was progressively incised, which is at odds with the discharges expected for floods originating from glacial lake outbursts. These findings suggest that flood-carved landscapes in fractured rock might evolve to a threshold state for bedrock erosion, thus implying much lower flood discharges than previously thought.

  2. Progressive incision of the Channeled Scablands by outburst floods.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Isaac J; Lamb, Michael P

    2016-10-13

    The surfaces of Earth and Mars contain large bedrock canyons that were carved by catastrophic outburst floods. Reconstructing the magnitude of these canyon-forming floods is essential for understanding the ways in which floods modify planetary surfaces, the hydrology of early Mars and abrupt changes in climate. Flood discharges are often estimated by assuming that the floods filled the canyons to their brims with water; however, an alternative hypothesis is that canyon morphology adjusts during incision such that bed shear stresses exceed the threshold for erosion by a small amount. Here we show that accounting for erosion thresholds during canyon incision results in near-constant discharges that are five- to ten-fold smaller than full-to-the-brim estimates for Moses Coulee, a canyon in the Channeled Scablands, which was carved during the Pleistocene by the catastrophic Missoula floods in eastern Washington, USA. The predicted discharges are consistent with flow-depth indicators from gravel bars within the canyon. In contrast, under the assumption that floods filled canyons to their brims, a large and monotonic increase in flood discharge is predicted as the canyon was progressively incised, which is at odds with the discharges expected for floods originating from glacial lake outbursts. These findings suggest that flood-carved landscapes in fractured rock might evolve to a threshold state for bedrock erosion, thus implying much lower flood discharges than previously thought.

  3. Technique for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in St. Louis County, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spencer, Donald Webster; Alexander, Terry W.

    1978-01-01

    Equations and nomographs in this report can be used to estimate peak flood discharges having recurrence intervals up to 100 years in rural and urban areas of St. Louis County, MO. The basin characteristics significant at the 5-percent probability level were drainage area and percentage imperviousness. Drainage area can be measured from maps, while percentage of imperviousness can either be measured from aerial photographs or estimated from land-use projections. These equations are based upon the analysis of hydrologic data collected at 30 continuous-recording gaging stations with drainage areas ranging from 0.8 to 39.0 square miles, and with impervious areas ranging from 1 to 32 percent. (Woodard-USGS)

  4. Estimation of the Probable Maximum Flood for a Small Lowland River in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

    2009-04-01

    The planning, designe and use of hydrotechnical structures often requires the assesment of maximu flood potentials. The most common term applied to this upper limit of flooding is the probable maximum flood (PMF). The PMP/UH (probable maximum precipitation/unit hydrograph) method has been used in the study to predict PMF from a small agricultural lowland river basin of Zagozdzonka (left tributary of Vistula river) in Poland. The river basin, located about 100 km south of Warsaw, with an area - upstream the gauge of Plachty - of 82 km2, has been investigated by Department of Water Engineering and Environmenal Restoration of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW since 1962. Over 40-year flow record was used in previous investigation for predicting T-year flood discharge (Banasik et al., 2003). The objective here was to estimate the PMF using the PMP/UH method and to compare the results with the 100-year flood. A new relation of depth-duration curve of PMP for the local climatic condition has been developed based on Polish maximum observed rainfall data (Ozga-Zielinska & Ozga-Zielinski, 2003). Exponential formula, with the value of exponent of 0.47, i.e. close to the exponent in formula for world PMP and also in the formula of PMP for Great Britain (Wilson, 1993), gives the rainfall depth about 40% lower than the Wilson's one. The effective rainfall (runoff volume) has been estimated from the PMP of various duration using the CN-method (USDA-SCS, 1986). The CN value as well as parameters of the IUH model (Nash, 1957) have been established from the 27 rainfall-runoff events, recorded in the river basin in the period 1980-2004. Varibility of the parameter values with the size of the events will be discussed in the paper. The results of the analyse have shown that the peak discharge of the PMF is 4.5 times larger then 100-year flood, and volume ratio of the respective direct hydrographs caused by rainfall events of critical duration is 4.0. References 1.Banasik K

  5. Estimation of the Probable Maximum Flood for a Small Lowland River in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

    2009-04-01

    The planning, designe and use of hydrotechnical structures often requires the assesment of maximu flood potentials. The most common term applied to this upper limit of flooding is the probable maximum flood (PMF). The PMP/UH (probable maximum precipitation/unit hydrograph) method has been used in the study to predict PMF from a small agricultural lowland river basin of Zagozdzonka (left tributary of Vistula river) in Poland. The river basin, located about 100 km south of Warsaw, with an area - upstream the gauge of Plachty - of 82 km2, has been investigated by Department of Water Engineering and Environmenal Restoration of Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW since 1962. Over 40-year flow record was used in previous investigation for predicting T-year flood discharge (Banasik et al., 2003). The objective here was to estimate the PMF using the PMP/UH method and to compare the results with the 100-year flood. A new relation of depth-duration curve of PMP for the local climatic condition has been developed based on Polish maximum observed rainfall data (Ozga-Zielinska & Ozga-Zielinski, 2003). Exponential formula, with the value of exponent of 0.47, i.e. close to the exponent in formula for world PMP and also in the formula of PMP for Great Britain (Wilson, 1993), gives the rainfall depth about 40% lower than the Wilson's one. The effective rainfall (runoff volume) has been estimated from the PMP of various duration using the CN-method (USDA-SCS, 1986). The CN value as well as parameters of the IUH model (Nash, 1957) have been established from the 27 rainfall-runoff events, recorded in the river basin in the period 1980-2004. Varibility of the parameter values with the size of the events will be discussed in the paper. The results of the analyse have shown that the peak discharge of the PMF is 4.5 times larger then 100-year flood, and volume ratio of the respective direct hydrographs caused by rainfall events of critical duration is 4.0. References 1.Banasik K

  6. The 1916 catastrophic flood following the Bílá Desná dam failure: The role of historical data sources in the reconstruction of its geomorphologic and landscape effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raška, Pavel; Emmer, Adam

    2014-12-01

    This paper describes the reconstruction of the geomorphologic and landscape effects of the most catastrophic flood owing to dam failure within the territory of today's Czech Republic, namely, the Bílá Desná dam failure of 1916. Because of the realisation of the significant later transformation of the Bílá Desná river catchment almost 100 years after the flood event, the field research performed during the summer and fall of 2013 had to be supported by extensive research in regional archives for documentary data. Various data types and sources (such as court investigation notes, investigation reports for insurance companies, old maps, and old photos, as well as video and recorded testimonies of survivors) were used to reconstruct the magnitude (discharge, flood wave extent) of the flood and its effects on the channel morphology and landscape. According to the reconstruction of the dam failure, which was caused by the internal erosion of the dam, the calculated peak discharge ranged between 418.2 and 1491.7 m3s- 1 and therefore exceeded the mean flow rate of the Bílá Desná River by more than 850 times. The river channel immediately upstream and downstream of the dam reclaimed its former meandering pattern with higher sinuosity, and new gravel point bars and irregular bars have been formed. Moreover, the river channel immediately below the dam shifted by up to 30 m following the flood wave. The most significant flood impacts were apparent in the village of Desná, where the flood wave, together with transported boulders (up to 2 m in diametre) and logs from sawmills situated upstream, killed 62 inhabitants and damaged or destroyed 101 buildings. The reconstructed flood wave in the towns of Desná and Tanvald exceeded the bankfull water level twice, with a width ranging between ~ 50 and 250 m in contrast to the average channel width of a few metres.

  7. Climatic and hydrologic aspects of the 2008 Midwest floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budikova, D.; Coleman, J.; Strope, S. A.

    2010-12-01

    Between May and June 2008 the Midwest region of the United States (U.S.) experienced record flooding. The event was produced by distinct hydroclimatic conditions that included saturated antecedent soil moisture conditions and atmospheric circulation that guided moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the area between late May and mid-June. The latter included a well-developed trough over the central/west U.S., a strong Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ), and unseasonably strong westerlies that promoted upper level divergence in regions of positive vorticity advection. The flooding coincided with a strongly negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation linked to the strength of the GPLLJ. The atmospheric flow contributed to flooding within three river basins across nine states. Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and central Indiana located within the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and the Wabash River Basin were most impacted and also recorded the greatest anomalies in rainfall. Record rainfall, persistent multi-day precipitation events, high frequency of localized high-intensity rainfall events all contributed to the severity of the flooding. Conditions peaked between May 21 and June 13 when rain fell somewhere within the region each day. River discharge rates reached record levels in June at many locations; return periods throughout Iowa, southern Wisconsin and in central Indiana were estimated to exceed 100 years, and often times 200 years. Record river stage levels were observed during this time in similar areas. Conditions began to recover into July and August. The timing of occurrence of the precipitation and hydrological anomalies towards late spring and into early summer in the Midwest was rather unusual. The 2008 flood event occurred 15 years after the infamous 1993 event. The importance of its occurrence is underscored by the observed increasing trends in extreme and flood-related precipitation characteristics during the 20th century and the anticipated

  8. A model to evaluate 100-year energy mix scenarios to facilitate deep decarbonization in the southeastern United States

    SciTech Connect

    Adkisson, Mary A.; Qualls, A. L.

    2016-08-01

    The Southeast United States consumes approximately one billion megawatt-hours of electricity annually; roughly two-thirds from carbon dioxide (CO2) emitting sources. The balance is produced by non-CO2 emitting sources: nuclear power, hydroelectric power, and other renewables. Approximately 40% of the total CO2 emissions come from the electric grid. The CO2 emitting sources, coal, natural gas, and petroleum, produce approximately 372 million metric tons of CO2 annually. The rest is divided between the transportation sector (36%), the industrial sector (20%), the residential sector (3%), and the commercial sector (2%). An Energy Mix Modeling Analysis (EMMA) tool was developed to evaluate 100-year energy mix strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the southeast. Current energy sector data was gathered and used to establish a 2016 reference baseline. The spreadsheet-based calculation runs 100-year scenarios based on current nuclear plant expiration dates, assumed electrical demand changes from the grid, assumed renewable power increases and efficiency gains, and assumed rates of reducing coal generation and deployment of new nuclear reactors. Within the model, natural gas electrical generation is calculated to meet any demand not met by other sources. Thus, natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source that produces less CO2 than coal until non-CO2 emitting sources can be brought online. The annual production of CO2 and spent nuclear fuel and the natural gas consumed are calculated and summed. A progression of eight preliminary scenarios show that nuclear power can substantially reduce or eliminate demand for natural gas within 100 years if it is added at a rate of only 1000 MWe per year. Any increases in renewable energy or efficiency gains can offset the need for nuclear power. However, using nuclear power to reduce CO2 will result in significantly more

  9. The 100-Year Base Flood Standard and the Floodplain Management Executive Order: A Review Prepared for the Office of Management and Budget by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-01

    District 2480 W. 26th Avenue Denver, CO 80211 *FLORIDA L-18 E. D. Vergara Water Management District P.O. Box 1429 Palatka, FL 32077 L-19 R. P. Blakeley Old...Engineer 606 Laurel Valley Road Austin, TX 78746 0-4 The Bi-State Development Agency Manuel De La 0 Executive Director 707 North First Street St. Louis

  10. Storm and flood of July 31-August 1, 1976, in the Big Thompson River and Cache la Poudre River basins, Larimer and Weld Counties, Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCain, Jerald F.; Shroba, R.R.

    1979-01-01

    the site during 88 years of flood history. At the gaging station on the North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake, the peak discharge on July 31 was 8,710 cubic feet per second as compared to the previous maximum discharge during 29 years of record of 1,290 cubic feet per second. Peak discharges for three small tributaries near the area of heaviest rainfall northeast of Estes Park exceeded previously recorded maximum discharges for basins of less than 4 square miles in Colorado. Stream velocities were rapid along the tributaries near the storm center and on the Big Thompson River in the canyon section, with average velocities of 20-25 feet per second being common. The flood crest on the Big Thompson River moved through the 7.7-mile reach between Drake and the canyon mouth in about 30 minutes for an average travel rate of 15 miles per hour, or about 23 feet per second. The peak discharge of the flood on the Big Thompson River at the canyon mouth exceeded the 100-year flood discharge for the site by a ratio of 1.8. Upstream in the Big Thompson River basin, the flood was even more rare being 3.8 times the estimated 100-year flood discharge at the site on the Big Thompson River just upstream from Drake. In the Cache la Poudre River basin, recurrence intervals were computed to be 100 years for the flood on Deadman Creek and 16 years for Rist Canyon and the Cache la Poudre River at the canyon mouth near Fort Collins. Although the rainfall and flood discharges were unusually large, they are not unprecedented for some areas along the eastern foothills and plains of Colorado. The May 1935 and June 1965 floods on some streams along the eastern plains greatly exceeded the 1976 flood peaks in the storm area. Prior floods on several other streams in the foothills have approximately equaled the 1976 peak discharges. PART B: Intense rainfall from the Big Thompson thunderstorm complex on the evening of July 31,1976, and the ensuing floods that evening and the fol

  11. Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends over a maritime state (Kerala) of India during the last 100 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, Archana; Ajith Joseph, K.; Nair, K. S.

    2014-05-01

    Kerala, a maritime state of India is bestowed with abundant rainfall which is about three times the national average. This study is conducted to have a better understanding of rainfall variability and trend at regional level for this state during the last 100 years. It is found that the rainfall variation in northern and southern regions of Kerala is large and the deviation is on different timescales. There is a shifting of rainfall mean and variability during the seasons. The trend analysis on rainfall data over the last 100 years reveals that there is a significant (99%) decreasing trend in most of the regions of Kerala especially in the month of January, July and November. The annual and seasonal trends of rainfall in most regions of Kerala are also found to be decreasing significantly. This decreasing trend may be related to global anomalies as a result of anthropogenic green house gas (GHG) emissions due to increased fossil fuel use, land-use change due to urbanisation and deforestation, proliferation in transportation associated atmospheric pollutants. We have also conducted a study of the seasonality index (SI) and found that only one district in the northern region (Kasaragod) has seasonality index of more than 1 and that the distribution of monthly rainfall in this district is mostly attributed to 1 or 2 months. In rest of the districts, the rainfall is markedly seasonal. The trend in SI reveals that the rainfall distribution in these districts has become asymmetric with changes in rainfall distribution.

  12. A 100 year sedimentary record of heavy metal pollution in a shallow eutrophic lake, Lake Chaohu, China.

    PubMed

    Zan, Fengyu; Huo, Shouliang; Xi, Beidou; Su, Jing; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Jingtian; Yeager, Kevin M

    2011-10-01

    This study has worked on the evaluation of the temporal and spatial evolution of heavy metal contamination in sediment taken from a shallow eutrophic lake, Lake Chaohu, China, over the last 100 years, and thereby used (137)Cs and (210)Pb dating, a PIRLA procedure, statistical analysis, geochemical normalization and a enrichment factor calculation (EF). Concentrations of 5174, 29 325, 10.7, 36.4, 20.4, 386.0, 21.1 and 38.4 mg kg(-1) for Ti, Fe, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Pb and Zn, respectively, are proposed as natural background values for the Lake Chaohu based on a PIRLA procedure. The contamination history from the last 100 years can be divided into two periods. Before the 1960s, heavy metal contamination did not occur and there was no spatial difference for heavy metal distribution. Since the 1960s, heavy metal enrichment and contamination has occurred, and the west half of the lake region showed a higher degree of contamination than the east half to various intensified anthropogenic activities. In the east half of the lake region, the anthropogenic source of heavy metals mainly originated from agricultural intensification, whereas in the west half of the lake it originated from city runoff and industry as well as agriculture. In all anthropogenic heavy metals, Co is only from industry.

  13. Flood of March 1997 in southern Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, K.S.; Vivian, S.A.; Diam, F.J.; Crecelius, C.J.

    1997-01-01

    Rainfall amounts of up to 12 inches produced by thunderstorms during March 1-2, 1997 resulted in severe flooding throughout much of southern Ohio. Eighteen counties were declared Federal and State disaster areas. Cost estimates of damage in Ohio from the flooding are nearly $180 million. About 6,500 residences and more than 800 businesses were affected by flooding. Nearly 20,000 persons were evacuated, and 5 deaths were attributed to the flooding. Record peak stage and streamflow were recorded at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations on Ohio Brush Creek near West Union and Shade River near Chester. The peak streamflow at these two locations exceeded the estimate of the 100-year-recurrence- interval peak streamflow. The recurrence intervals of peak stream flow at selected USGS streamflow gaging stations throughout southern Ohio ranged from less than 2 years to greater than 100 years. The most severe flooding in the State was generally confined to areas within 50 to 70 miles of the Ohio River. Many communities along the Ohio River experienced the worst flooding in more than 30 years.

  14. Evolution of flood typology across Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Parajka, Juraj; Viglione, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Following the frequent occurrence of severe flood events in different parts of Europe in the recent past, there has been a rise in interest in understanding the mechanisms by which the different events have been triggered and how they have been evolving over time. This study was carried out to establish the characteristics of observed flood events in the past across Europe in terms of their spatial extent and the processes leading up to the events using a process based hydrological model. To this end, daily discharge data from more than 750 stations of the Global Runoff Data Center were used to identify flood events at the stations based on a threshold method for the period 1961-2010. The identified events at the different stations were further analyzed to determine whether they form the same flood event, thereby delineating the spatial extent of the flood events. The pan-European hydrological model, E-HYPE, which runs at a daily time step, was employed to estimate a set of catchment hydrological and hydro-meteorological state variables that are relevant in the flood generating process for each of the identified spatially delineated flood events. A subsequent clustering of the events based on the simulated state variables, together with the spatial extent of the flood events, was used to identify the flood generating mechanism of each flood event. Four general flood generation mechanisms were identified: long-rain flood, short-rain flood, snowmelt flood, and rain-on-snow flood. A trend analysis was performed to investigate how the frequency of each of the flood types has changed over time. In order to investigate whether there is a regional and seasonal pattern in the dominant flood generating mechanisms, this analysis was performed separately for winter and summer seasons and three different regions of Europe: Northern, Western, and Eastern Europe. The results show a regional difference both in the dominant flood generating mechanism and the corresponding trends.

  15. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Bruijn, K. M.; Diermanse, F. L. M.; Beckers, J. V. L.

    2014-02-01

    This paper discusses the new method developed to analyse flood risks in river deltas. Risk analysis of river deltas is complex, because both storm surges and river discharges may cause flooding and since the effect of upstream breaches on downstream water levels and flood risks must be taken into account. A Monte Carlo based flood risk analysis framework for policy making was developed, which considers both storm surges and river flood waves and includes hydrodynamic interaction effects on flood risks. It was applied to analyse societal flood fatality risks (the probability of events with more than N fatalities) in the Rhine-Meuse delta.

  16. Flood elevations for the Soleduck River at Sol Duc Hot Springs, Clallam County, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nelson, L.M.

    1983-01-01

    Elevations and inundation areas of a 100-year flood of the Soleduck River, Washington, were determined by the U.S. Geological Survey for the area in the vicinity of the Sol Duc Hot Springs resort, a public facility in the Olympic National Park that under Federal law must be located beyond or protected from damage by a 100-year flood. Results show that most flooding could be eliminated by raising parts of an existing dike. In general, little flood damage is expected, except at the southern end of an undeveloped airstrip that could become inundated and hazardous due to flow from a tributary. The airstrip is above the 100-year flood of the Soleduck River.

  17. Lung surgery - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Thoracotomy - discharge; Lung tissue removal - discharge; Pneumonectomy - discharge; Lobectomy - discharge; Lung biopsy - discharge; Thoracoscopy - discharge; Video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery - discharge; VATS - ...

  18. Runoff models and flood frequency statistics for design flood estimation in Austria - Do they tell a consistent story?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogger, M.; Kohl, B.; Pirkl, H.; Viglione, A.; Komma, J.; Kirnbauer, R.; Merz, R.; Blöschl, G.

    2012-08-01

    SummaryDesign floods for a given location at a stream can be estimated by a number of approaches including flood frequency statistics and the design storm method. If applied to the same catchment the two methods often yield quite different results. The aim of this paper is to contribute to understanding the reasons for these differences. A case study is performed for 10 alpine catchments in Tyrol, Austria, where the 100-year floods are estimated by (a) flood frequency statistics and (b) an event based runoff model. To identify the sources of the differences of the two methods, the 100-year floods are also estimated by (c) Monte Carlo simulations using a continuous runoff model. The results show that, in most catchments, the event based model gives larger flood estimates than flood frequency statistics. The reasons for the differences depend on the catchment characteristics and different rainfall inputs that were applied. For catchments with a high storage capacity the Monte Carlo simulations indicate a step change in the flood frequency curve when a storage threshold is exceeded which is not captured by flood frequency statistics. Flood frequency statistics therefore tends to underestimate the floods in these catchments. For catchments with a low storage capacity or significant surface runoff, no step change occurs, but in three catchments the design storms used were larger than those read from the IDF (intensity duration frequency) curve leading to an overestimation of the design floods. Finally, also the correct representation of flood dominating runoff components was shown to influence design flood results. Geologic information on the catchments was essential for identifying the reasons for the mismatch of the flood estimates.

  19. Modeling Flood Plain Hydrology and Forest Productivity of Congaree Swamp, South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    2009-01-01

    tupelo (Nyssa aquatica), green ash (Fraxinus pennslyvanica), laurel oak (Quercus laurifolia), swamp chestnut oak (Quercus michauxii), and sycamore (Plantanus occidentalis) within Congaree Swamp in highand low-elevation sites characteristic of shorter and longer flood duration and related to upriver flood controls and dam operation. Ring counts and dating indicated that all loblolly pine trees and nearly all baldcypress collections in this study are postsettlement recruits and old-growth cohorts, dating from 100 to 300 years in age. Most hardwood species and trees cored for age analysis were less than 100 years old, demonstrating robust growth and high site quality. Growth chronologies of loblolly pine and baldcypress exhibited positive and negative inflections over the last century that corresponded with climate history and residual effects of Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Stemwood production on average was less for trees and species on sites with longer flood retention and hydroperiod affected more by groundwater seepage and site elevation than river floods. Water level data provided evidence that stream regulation and operations of the Saluda Dam (post-1934) have actually increased the average daily water stage in the Congaree River. There was no difference in tree growth response by species or hydrogeomorphic setting to predam and postdam flood conditions and river stage. Climate-growth analysis showed that long-term growth variation is controlled more by spring/ summer temperatures in loblolly pine and by spring/summer precipitation in baldcypress than flooding history.

  20. Bank erosion history of a mountain stream determined by means of anatomical changes in exposed tree roots over the last 100 years (Bílá Opava River — Czech Republic)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malik, Ireneusz; Matyja, Marcin

    2008-06-01

    The date of exposure of spruce roots as a result of bank erosion was investigated on the Bílá Opava River in the northeastern Czech Republic. Following the exposure of roots, wood cells in the tree rings divide into early wood and late wood. Root cells within the tree rings also become smaller and more numerous. These processes permit dating of the erosion episodes in which roots were exposed. Sixty root samples were taken from seven sampling sites selected on two riverbed reaches. The results of root exposure dating were compared to historical data on hydrological flooding. Using the root exposure dating method, several erosion episodes were recorded for the last 100 years. The greatest bank erosion was recorded as consequence of an extraordinary flood in July 1997. In the upper, rocky part of the valley studied, bank erosion often took place during large floods that occurred in the early 20th century. In the lower, alluvial part of the valley, erosion in the exposed roots was recorded only in 1973 and has been intensive ever since. It is suggested that banks in the lower part are more frequently undercut, which leads to the falling of trees within whose roots older erosion episodes were recorded. Locally, bank erosion is often intensified by the position of 1- to 2-m boulders in the riverbed, which direct water into the parts of the banks where erosion occurs. Selective bank erosion could be intensified by debris dams and hillslope material supply to the riverbed.

  1. Flood Deposition Analysis of Northern California's Eel River (Flood- DANCER)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlgren, S.; Bauman, P. D.; Dillon, R. J.; Gallagher, N.; Jamison, M. E.; King, A.; Lee, J.; Siwicke, K. A.; Harris, C. K.; Wheatcroft, R. A.; Borgeld, J. C.; Goldthwait, S. A.

    2006-12-01

    Characterizing and quantifying the fate of river born sediment is critical to our understanding of sediment supply and erosion in impacted coastal areas. Strata deposited in coastal zones provide an invaluable record of recent and historical environmental events. The Eel River in northern California has one of the highest sediment yields of any North American river and has preserved evidence of the impact of recent flood events. Previous research has documented sediment deposits associated with Eel River flood events in January 1995, March 1995, and January 1997. These deposits were found north of the river mouth on the mid shelf in water depths from 50-100 m. Sediment strata were up to 5-10 cm thick and were composed of fine to very fine grained silts and clays. Until recently, no model had been able to correctly reproduce the sediment deposits associated with these floods. In 2005, Harris et al. developed a model that accurately represents the volume and location of the flood deposit associated with the January 1997 event. However, rigorous assessment of the predictive capability of this model requires that a new flood of the Eel River be used as a test case. During the winter of 2005-06 the Eel River rose above flood stage reaching discharge similar to the flood of January 1995 which resulted in flood sedimentation on the Eel River shelf. A flood-related deposit 1-5 cm thick was found in water depths of 60-90 m approximately 20-35 km north of the river mouth. Flood deposits were recognized in box cores collected in the months following the flood. As in previously studied events, flood- related strata near the sediment surface were recognized in core x-radiographs, resistivity and porosity profiles, and were composed of fine to very fine grained silts and clays. In addition, surface flood sediments were associated with lower concentrations of benthic foraminifera compared with deeper sediments. The January 2006 flood deposit was similar in thickness to the

  2. Technique for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Curtis, George W.

    1977-01-01

    A technique is presented for estimating flood magnitudes at recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years, for unregulated rural streams in Illinois, with drainage areas ranging from 0.02 to 10,000 square miles. Multiple regression analyses, using streamflow data from 241 sampling sites, were used to define the flood-frequency relationships. The independent variables drainage area, slope, rainfall intensity, and an areal factor are used in the estimating equations to determine flood peaks. Examples are given to demonstrate a step-by-step procedure in computing a 100-year flood for a site on an ungaged stream and a site on a gaged stream in Illinois. The report is oriented toward planners and designers of engineering projects such as highways, bridges, culverts, flood-control structures, and drainage systems, and toward planners responsible for planning flood-plain use and establishing flood-insurance rates. (Woodard-USGS)

  3. The History of Parenting Practices: An Overview! Events, Policies and Theories That Have Influenced Parenting Practices over the Last 100 Years. [Videotape and Worksheets].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1999

    Noting that parenting is a learned experience and that the source of information on parenting has changed considerably over the last 100 years, this videotape examines the history of parent education over the past 100 years, highlighting events influencing family life, policies and legislation to assist families, and parenting theories for each…

  4. Flood control problems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leopold, Luna Bergere; Maddock, Thomas

    1955-01-01

    Throughout the world, alluvial soils are among the most fertile and easiest cultivated. Alluvial valleys are routes for transportation either by water or by road and railroad. Rivers are sources of water, a necessity of life. But these river valleys and alluvial deposits, which have so many desirable characteristics and which have increased so greatly in population, are periodically occupied by the river in performing its task of removing the excess of precipitation from the land area and carrying away the products of erosion.How a river behaves and how the river flood plain appears depend on the relationships between water and sediment combined with the existing topography. Thus rivers and their alluvial deposits provide an endless variety of forms which are shaped, to a large extent, by the river flow during periods of rapid removal of debris and of excessive rainfall. The mechanics of river formation are such, however, that the highest discharges are not contained within a limited channel. How much water a channel will carry depends upon the frequency of occurrence of a flow. Low flows, which occur very frequently, are not important in channel formation. Neither are the infrequent discharges of very great magnitude which, although powerful, do not occur often enough to shape the channel. Channel characteristics, are dependent on those discharges of moderate size which combine power with frequency of occurrence to modify the channel from. In the highest discharges of a stream, water rises above the confines of its banks and flows over the flood plain.It must be considered, therefore, that floods are natural phenomena which are characteristic of all rivers. They perform a vital function in the maintenance of river forms and out of bank flow may be expected with a reasonable degree of regularity.

  5. Missouri River basin floods of April-May 1950 in North and South Dakota; Chapter A in Floods of 1950

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oltman, Roy Edwin

    1951-01-01

    Data include records of stage and discharge at 54 gaging stations for the period of flood, a summary of peak discharges and comparative data for past and present maxima, a table of crest stages, and weather associated with the 1950 flood.

  6. Estimates of Flow Duration, Mean Flow, and Peak-Discharge Frequency Values for Kansas Stream Locations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, Charles A.; Wolock, David M.; Artman, Joshua C.

    2004-01-01

    Streamflow statistics of flow duration and peak-discharge frequency were estimated for 4,771 individual locations on streams listed on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. These statistics included the flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent, as well as the mean flow value. Peak-discharge frequency values were estimated for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent and the mean flow for uncontrolled flow stream locations. The contributing-drainage areas of 149 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kansas and parts of surrounding States that had flow uncontrolled by Federal reservoirs and used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. Logarithmic transformations of climatic and basin data were performed to yield the best linear relation for developing equations to compute flow durations and mean flow. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were contributing-drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. The analyses yielded a model standard error of prediction range of 0.43 logarithmic units for the 90-percent duration analysis to 0.15 logarithmic units for the 10-percent duration analysis. The model standard error of prediction was 0.14 logarithmic units for the mean flow. Regression equations used to estimate peak-discharge frequency values were obtained from a previous report, and estimates for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were determined for this report. The regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute flow durations, mean flow, and estimates of peak-discharge frequency for locations along uncontrolled flow streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Flow durations, mean

  7. Climate factor for small-basin flood frequency

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lichty, R.W.; Karlinger, M.R.

    1990-01-01

    A climate factor, CT, (T = 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence intervals) that delineates regional trends in small-basin flood frequency was derived using data from 71 long-term rainfall record sites. Values of CT at these sites were developed by a regression analysis that related rainfall-runoff model estimates of T-year floods to a sample set of 50 model calibrations. CT was regionalized via kriging to develop maps depicting its geographic variation for a large part of the United States east of the 105th meridian. Kriged estimates of CT and basin-runoff characteristics were used to compute regionalized T-year floods for 200 small drainage basins. Observed T-year flood estimates also were developed for these sites. Regionalized floods are shown to account for a large percentage of the variability in observed flood estimates with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.89 for 2-year floods to 0.82 for 100-year floods. The relative importance of the factors comprising regionalized flood estimates is evaluated in terms of scale (size of drainage area), basin-runoff characteristics (rainfall-runoff model parameters), and climate (CT).

  8. Floods of August 1967 in east-central Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Childers, Joseph M.; Meckel, James P.; Anderson, Gary S.

    1972-01-01

    East-central Alaska had record floods near Fairbanks following extensive rains of August 8-20, 1967. Precipitation during this period totaled as much as 10 inches, which is close to the average annual precipitation for this area. The most extensive flooding occurred in the White Mountains northeast of Fairbanks and along the major streams draining those mountains. Some of the major streams flooded were the Salcha, Chena, Chatanika, Tolovana, and lower Tanana Rivers, and Birch Creek west of Circle. Peak discharges on some streams in the flood area were from two to four times the probable 50-year flood. The peak discharge of 74,400 cubic feet per second of the Chena River at Fairbanks, from 1,980 square miles of drainage area, was 2.6 times the 50-year flood. The rise of ground-water levels in the Tanana River flood plain to the land surface during the flood caused foundation failures and prevented drainage of subsurface structures. Above-normal ground-water levels existed until the middle of September. Total flood damage was estimated in excess of $85 million. Six lives were reported lost, and about 12,000 persons were evacuated during the flood. This report has been prepared to furnish hydrologic data for development planning. Included are discussions of antecedent streamflow, meteorology of the storm, descriptions of floods, flood damage, flood frequency, ground-water conditions, and stages and discharges of major streams for August 1967.

  9. Flood of April 13, 1980, Mobile, Alabama

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hannum, Curtis H.; Nelson, George H.

    1980-01-01

    This report presents basic data collected during the flood of April 13, 1980, in Mobile, Alabama. The data consists of high-water marks, accumulative rainfall, peak discharge at local gaging stations, hydrographs of discharge and rainfall, and photographs at various locations taken during and immediately after the flood. The report presented in map-series and lists data that are readily usable by local planners and developers. During th afternoon of April 13, 1980, the National Weather Service at Mobile recorded a total of 10.4 inches of rainfall. Immediately after the flood approximately 60 to 70 percent of the roads in the Mobile area were impassable. (USGS)

  10. Propagation of rating curve uncertainty in design flood estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinbakk, G. H.; Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Reitan, T.; Schlichting, L.; Hølleland, S.; Engeland, K.

    2016-09-01

    Statistical flood frequency analysis is commonly performed based on a set of annual maximum discharge values which are derived from stage measurements via a stage-discharge rating curve model. Such design flood estimation techniques often ignore the uncertainty in the underlying rating curve model. Using data from eight gauging stations in Norway, we investigate the effect of curve and sample uncertainty on design flood estimation by combining results from a Bayesian multisegment rating curve model and a Bayesian flood frequency analysis. We find that sample uncertainty is the main contributor to the design flood estimation uncertainty. However, under extrapolation of the rating curve, the uncertainty bounds for both the rating curve model and the flood frequency analysis are highly skewed and ignoring these features may underestimate the potential risk of flooding. We expect this effect to be even more pronounced in arid and semiarid climates with a higher variability in floods.

  11. Flood Summary Chehalis River Basin, January 1990 Event (and November 1990 Event Addendum)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-05-31

    Chehalis area. On the other hand, the three Eastern Washington counties (Chelan, Kittitas and Yakima ) experienced severe flooding for the first time in...River Basin, Washington Floods, 1990 19 ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) The main report documents the 100-year...2 6. Temperature ........................................................ 2 7. Freezing Level and Snowpack

  12. ENSO-triggered floods in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isla, Federico Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    ENSO-triggered floods altered completely the annual discharge of most watersheds of South America. Anomalous years as 1941, 1982-83 and 1997-98 signified enormous discharges of rivers draining toward the Pacific but also to the Atlantic Ocean. These floods affected large cities as Porto Alegre, Blumenau, Curitiba, Asunción, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires. Maximum discharge months are particular and easily distinguished at those watersheds located at the South American Arid Diagonal. At watersheds conditioned by precipitations delivered from the Atlantic or Pacific anticyclonic centers the ENSO-triggered floods are difficult to discern. The floods of 1941 affected 70,000 inhabitants in Porto Alegre. In 1983, Blumenau city was flooded during several days; and the Paraná River multiplied 15 times the width of its middle floodplain. The Colorado River in Northern Patagonia connected for the last time to the Desaguadero-Chadileuvú-Curacó system and therefore received saline water. ENSO years modify also the water balance of certain piedmont lakes of Southern Patagonia: the increases in snow accumulations cause high water levels with a lag of 13 months. The correlation between the maximum monthly discharges of 1982-83 and 1997-98 at different regions and watersheds indicates they can be forecasted for future floods triggered by same phenomena. South American rivers can be classified therefore into ENSO-affected, and ENSO-dominated, for those within the Arid Diagonal that are exclusively subject to high discharges during these years.

  13. Floods of February 1989 in Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Quinones, Ferdinand; Gamble, C.R.

    1990-01-01

    Rainfall amounts of over 5 inches the night of February 13 and the morning of February 14, 1989, caused flooding in areas of Middle and West Tennessee. The towns of Lebanon in Middle Tennessee and Obion in West Tennessee were most severely affected. Most of the business district in Lebanon and many residential areas in Obion were flooded. Recurrence intervals for 24-hour rainfall totals were as high as 25 years at some sites but most peak discharges had recurrence intervals of less than 10 years. Rainfall amounts for the period February 13-20, 1989, peak stages and discharges for this flood, the peak of record, and a list of discharge measurements made during the flood are documented. (USGS)

  14. Aboveground and belowground legacies of native Sami land use on boreal forest in northern Sweden 100 years after abandonment.

    PubMed

    Freschet, Grégoire T; Ostlund, Lars; Kichenin, Emilie; Wardle, David A

    2014-04-01

    Human activities that involve land-use change often cause major transformations to community and ecosystem properties both aboveground and belowground, and when land use is abandoned, these modifications can persist for extended periods. However, the mechanisms responsible for rapid recovery vs. long-term maintenance of ecosystem changes following abandonment remain poorly understood. Here, we examined the long-term ecological effects of two remote former settlements, regularly visited for -300 years by reindeer-herding Sami and abandoned -100 years ago, within an old-growth boreal forest that is considered one of the most pristine regions in northern Scandinavia. These human legacies were assessed through measurements of abiotic and biotic soil properties and vegetation characteristics at the settlement sites and at varying distances from them. Low-intensity land use by Sami is characterized by the transfer of organic matter towards the settlements by humans and reindeer herds, compaction of soil through trampling, disappearance of understory vegetation, and selective cutting of pine trees for fuel and construction. As a consequence, we found a shift towards early successional plant species and a threefold increase in soil microbial activity and nutrient availability close to the settlements relative to away from them. These changes in soil fertility and vegetation contributed to 83% greater total vegetation productivity, 35% greater plant biomass, and 23% and 16% greater concentrations of foliar N and P nearer the settlements, leading to a greater quantity and quality of litter inputs. Because decomposer activity was also 40% greater towards the settlements, soil organic matter cycling and nutrient availability were further increased, leading to likely positive feedbacks between the aboveground and belowground components resulting from historic land use. Although not all of the activities typical of Sami have left visible residual traces on the ecosystem after

  15. Simulation of Flood Profiles for Catoma Creek near Montgomery, Alabama, 2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, K.G.; Hedgecock, T.S.

    2008-01-01

    A one-dimensional step-backwater model was used to simulate flooding conditions for Catoma Creek near Montgomery, Alabama. A peak flow of 50,000 cubic feet per second was computed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the March 1990 flood at the Norman Bridge Road gaging station. Using this estimated peak flow, flood-plain surveys with associated roughness coefficients, and surveyed high-water marks for the March 1990 flood, a flow model was calibrated to closely match the known event. The calibrated model then was used to simulate flooding for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods. The 100-year flood stage for the Alabama River also was computed in the vicinity of the Catoma Creek confluence using observed high-water profiles from the 1979 and 1990 floods and gaging-station data. The results indicate that the 100-year flood profile for Catoma Creek within the 15-mile study reach is about 2.5 feet higher, on average, than the profile published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The maximum and minimum differences are 6.0 feet and 0.8 foot, respectively. All water-surface elevations computed for the 100-year flood are higher than those published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The 100-year flood stage computed for the Alabama River in the vicinity of the Catoma Creek confluence was about 4.5 feet lower than the elevation published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The results of this study provide the community with flood-profile information that can be used for flood-plain mitigation, future development, and safety plans for the city.

  16. Improvements on flood alleviation in Germany: lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002.

    PubMed

    Petrow, Theresia; Thieken, Annegret H; Kreibich, Heidi; Bahlburg, Cord Heinrich; Merz, Bruno

    2006-11-01

    The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a "Lessons Learned" study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Laender) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for "unthinkable extreme events" beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.

  17. Radical prostatectomy - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... prostatectomy - discharge; Laparoscopic radical prostatectomy - discharge; LRP - discharge; Robotic-assisted laparoscopic prostatectomy - discharge ; RALP - discharge; Pelvic lymphadenectomy - discharge; Prostate cancer - prostatectomy

  18. Future flood risk in Europe under high-end climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Bianchi, Alessandra; Burek, Peter; Dottori, Francesco; Forzieri, Giovanni; Roudier, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    a peak over threshold approach; 3) a new methodology is proposed to bias correct the climate projections used, which is performed in the evaluation of the flood risk and therefore does not modify atmospheric variables nor the energy balance; 4) a coherent estimate of vulnerability information is included. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. This underlines some limitations embedded in the commonly used block-maxima analysis on annual peak discharges. On a continental average, flood peaks with return period above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within the next few decades. This is reflected into an average 200 percent climate-related increase in the future expected damage and population affected by the end of the century in Europe.

  19. A 100-year sedimentary record of natural and anthropogenic impacts on a shallow eutrophic lake, Lake Chaohu, China.

    PubMed

    Zan, Fengyu; Huo, Shouliang; Xi, Beidou; Zhu, Chaowei; Liao, Haiqing; Zhang, Jingtian; Yeager, Kevin M

    2012-03-01

    In this study, the sediment profiles of total organic carbon, total nitrogen, C/N ratios, total phosphorus, N/P ratios, C/P ratios, particle sizes, and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ(13)C and δ(15)N) were used to investigate natural and anthropogenic impacts on Lake Chaohu over the past 100 years. Before 1960, Lake Chaohu experienced low productivity and a relatively steady and low nutrient input. The increasing concentration and fluxes of total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, together with changes in the δ(13)C and δ(15)N of organic material in the sediment cores, suggested that the anthropogenic effects on trophic status first started because of an increase in nutrient input caused by a population increase in the drainage area. With the construction of the Chaohu Dam, an increase in the utilization of fertilizer and the population growth which occurred since 1960, stable depositional conditions and increasing nutrient input resulted in a dominantly algae-derived organic matter source and high productivity. Nutrient input increased most significantly around 1980 following the rapidly growing population, with concomitant urbanization, industrial and agricultural development. This study also revealed that the concentration and distribution of nutrients varied between different areas of sediment within Lake Chaohu because of the influence of different drainage basins and pollution sources.

  20. Regime Shifts in Shallow Lakes: Responses of Cyanobacterial Blooms to Watershed Agricultural Phosphorus Loading Over the Last ~100 Years.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermaire, J. C.; Taranu, Z. E.; MacDonald, G. K.; Velghe, K.; Bennett, E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid changes in ecosystem states have occurred naturally throughout Earth's history. However, environmental changes that have taken place since the start of the Anthropocene may be destabilizing ecosystems and increasing the frequency of regime shifts in response to abrupt changes in external drivers or local intrinsic dynamics. To evaluate the relative influence of these forcers and improve our understanding of the impact of future change, we examined the effects of historical catchment phosphorus loading associated with agricultural land use on lake ecosystems, and whether this caused a shift from a stable, clear-water, regime to a turbid, cyanobacteria-dominated, state. The sedimentary pigments, diatom, and zooplankton (Cladocera) records from a currently clear-water shallow lake (Roxton Pond) and a turbid-water shallow lake (Petit lac Saint-François; PSF) were examined to determine if a cyanobacteria associated pigment (i.e. echinenone) showed an abrupt non-linear response to continued historical phosphorus load index (determined by phosphorus budget) over the last ~100 years. While PSF lake is presently in the turbid-water state, pigment and diatom analyses indicated that both lakes were once in the clear-water state, and that non-linear increases in catchment phosphorus balance resulted in an abrupt transition to cyanobacteria dominated states in each record. These results show that phosphorus loading has resulted in state shifts in shallow lake ecosystems that has been recorded across multiple paleolimnological indicators preserved in the sedimentary record.

  1. DNA from a 100-year-old holotype confirms the validity of a potentially extinct hummingbird species.

    PubMed

    Kirchman, Jeremy J; Witt, Christopher C; McGuire, Jimmy A; Graves, Gary R

    2010-02-23

    We used mtDNA sequence data to confirm that the controversial 100-year-old holotype of the Bogotá sunangel (Heliangelus zusii) represents a valid species. We demonstrate that H. zusii is genetically well differentiated from taxa previously hypothesized to have given rise to the specimen via hybridization. Phylogenetic analyses place H. zusii as sister to a clade of mid- to high-elevation Andean species currently placed in the genera Taphrolesbia and Aglaiocercus. Heliangelus zusii, presumed extinct, has never been observed in nature by biologists. We infer that the species occupied a restricted distribution between the upper tropical and temperate zones of the northern Andes and that it was most probably driven to extinction by deforestation that accompanied human population growth during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. We demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining DNA from nearly microscopic tissue samples from old hummingbird specimens and suggest that these methods could be used to resolve the taxonomy of dozens of avian taxa known only from type specimens.

  2. Flood hazard and risk analysis in the southwest region of Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tingsanchali, Tawatchai; Fazlul Karim, Mohammed

    2005-06-01

    Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100-year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time-consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives.

  3. Historic Flooding in Georgia, 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gotvald, Anthony J.

    2010-01-01

    Heavy rains in southern Georgia during March 27-April 3, 2009, and in northern Georgia during September 16-22, 2009, caused severe flooding and widespread damages to residential, public, and commercial structures. Of the 159 counties in Georgia, 69 were declared disaster areas because of flooding. The heavy rainfall in southern Georgia resulted in severe flooding in the Satilla-St. Marys and upper Ochlockonee Basins and caused approximately $60 million in damages to the public infrastructure. The heavy rainfall in northern Georgia resulted in severe flooding on many streams within the upper Chattahoochee, Altamaha, and Coosa-Tallapoosa Basins and caused 10 deaths, evacuation of thousands of residents, and approximately $500 million in damages. The U.S. Geological Survey computed annual exceedance probabilities of the peak flows in 2009 at 238 streamgages throughout the State. Record peak flows were recorded at 40 streamgages for the respective periods of record as a result of the heavy rainfall during the two multiday events. The peak flows at 33 streamgages exceeded the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (100-year recurrence interval), and 19 of these exceeded the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval).

  4. Polymer flooding

    SciTech Connect

    Littmann, W.

    1988-01-01

    This book covers all aspects of polymer flooding, an enhanced oil recovery method using water soluble polymers to increase the viscosity of flood water, for the displacement of crude oil from porous reservoir rocks. Although this method is becoming increasingly important, there is very little literature available for the engineer wishing to embark on such a project. In the past, polymer flooding was mainly the subject of research. The results of this research are spread over a vast number of single publications, making it difficult for someone who has not kept up-to-date with developments during the last 10-15 years to judge the suitability of polymer flooding to a particular field case. This book tries to fill that gap. An indispensable book for reservoir engineers, production engineers and lab. technicians within the petroleum industry.

  5. Vaginal Discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... also be on the lookout for symptoms of yeast infections, bacterial vaginosis and trichomoniasis, 3 infections that ... cause changes in your vaginal discharge.Signs of yeast infectionsWhite, cottage cheese-like dischargeSwelling and pain around ...

  6. Floods in Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Follansbee, Robert; Sawyer, Leon R.

    1948-01-01

    resulting from a cloudburst rises so quickly that it is usually described as a 'wall of water.' It has a peak duration of only a few minutes, followed by a rapid subsidence. Nearly 90 cloudburst floods in Colorado are described in varying detail in this report. The earliest recorded cloudburst--called at that time a waterspout--occurred in Golden Gate Gulch, July 14, 1872. The 'wall of water' was described as a 'perpendicular breast of 10 or 12 feet.' A cloudburst flood on Kiowa Creek in May 1878 caused the loss of a standard-gage locomotive, and although search was made by means of long metallic rods, the locomotive was never recovered, as bedrock was about 50 feet below the creek bed. All available information relative to floods in Colorado, beginning with the flood of 1826 on the Arkansas River, is presented in this report, although for many of the earlier floods estimates of discharge are lacking. Floods throughout a large part of the State have occurred in 1844, June 1864, June 1884, May 1894, and June 1921. The highest floods of record were on the larger streams and occurred as follows: South Platte River, June 1921; Rio Grande, June 1927; Colorado River, June and July 1884; San Juan River, October 1911. The greatest floods on the plains streams occurred during May and June 1935 and were caused by cloudbursts. Ranchers living in the vicinity noted rainfalls as high as 24 inches in a 13-hour period, measurements being made in a stock tank. The effect of settlement on channel capacities can be clearly traced. When settlement began, and with it the beginning of the livestock industry, the plains were thickly covered with a luxuriant growth of grasses. With the development of the livestock industry the grass cover was grazed so closely that it afforded little protection against erosion during the violent rains and resulting floods. The intensive grazing packed the soil so hard as to increase greatly the percentage of rainfall that entered the streams. This co

  7. After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

    2015-04-01

    In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

  8. Russian pioneers of therapeutic hemapheresis and extracorporeal hemocorrection: 100-year anniversary of the world's first successful plasmapheresis.

    PubMed

    Sokolov, Alexey A; Solovyev, Andrey G

    2014-04-01

    On 15 February 2013 (2 February on the Julian Calendar) we celebrated the 100-year anniversary of the world's first successful experimental plasmapheresis. Scientific research projects in this field were carried out by the Department of Infectious Disease, Russian Imperial Medical Surgical Academy located in Saint-Petersburg. Doctor of Medical Sciences and Professor Vadim A. Yurevich was a Principal Investigator for this research, which in 1913 resulted in the discovery of a new way of treatment. The results were published in Russki Vratch (Russian Physician) Journal no. 18 (1914) - V.A. Yurevich and N.K. Rosenberg "For the Question Regarding Washing of Blood Outside of the Body and the Vitality of Red Blood Cells". There was no terminology offered for this medical innovation at that time. Plasma removal was performed not solely, but in combination with washing of blood cells returned to the patient. Nowadays this combination is still considered to be more effective than separate plasmapheresis. According to the published experimental protocols this new treatment was done on 15 February (2 February on the Julian Calendar or "old style"). One year later in 1914 a famous researcher, John Abel and coauthors, repeated a separate plasma removal treatment with retransfusion of the blood cells and suggested the term "plasmapheresis", which is now official. The article entitled "Plasma Removal With Return of Corpuscles (Plasmapheresis)", written by Abel was published 3 months later than the article by Professor Yurevich. In 1924, Dr Ivan P. Mikhailovskiy repeated experiments by Yurevich and Rosenberg in vivo on a dog model, confirmed the clinical efficiency and developed the methodology in his article "Washing of Blood In Vivo, the Methodology, Problems, and Importance for the Treatment of Toxic Conditions."

  9. Acidophilic denitrifiers dominate the N2O production in a 100-year-old tea orchard soil.

    PubMed

    Huang, Ying; Long, Xi-En; Chapman, Stephen J; Yao, Huaiying

    2015-03-01

    Aerobic denitrification is the main process for high N2O production in acid tea field soil. However, the biological mechanisms for the high emission are not fully understood. In this study, we examined N2O emission and denitrifier communities in 100-year-old tea soils with four pH levels (3.71, 5.11, 6.19, and 7.41) and four nitrate concentration (0, 50, 200, and 1000 mg kg(-1) of NO3 (-)-N) addition. Results showed the highest N2O emission (10.1 mg kg(-1) over 21 days) from the soil at pH 3.71 with 1000 mg kg(-1) NO3 (-) addition. The N2O reduction and denitrification enzyme activity in the acid soils (pH <7.0) were significantly higher than that of soils at pH 7.41. Moreover, TRF 78 of nirS and TRF 187 of nosZ dominated in soils of pH 3.71, suggesting an important role of acidophilic denitrifiers in N2O production and reduction. CCA analysis also showed a negative correlation between the dominant denitrifier ecotypes (nirS TRF 78, nosZ TRF 187) and soil pH. The representative sequences were identical to those of cultivated denitrifiers from acidic soils via phylogenetic tree analysis. Our results showed that the acidophilic denitrifier adaptation to the acid environment results in high N2O emission in this highly acidic tea soil.

  10. The story of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory -- A remarkable first 100 years of tracking eruptions and earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Babb, Janet L.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.

    2011-01-01

    The year 2012 marks the centennial of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the support and cooperation of visionaries, financiers, scientists, and other individuals and organizations, HVO has successfully achieved 100 years of continuous monitoring of Hawaiian volcanoes. As we celebrate this milestone anniversary, we express our sincere mahalo—thanks—to the people who have contributed to and participated in HVO’s mission during this past century. First and foremost, we owe a debt of gratitude to the late Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., the geologist whose vision and efforts led to the founding of HVO. We also acknowledge the pioneering contributions of the late Frank A. Perret, who began the continuous monitoring of Kīlauea in 1911, setting the stage for Jaggar, who took over the work in 1912. Initial support for HVO was provided by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Carnegie Geophysical Laboratory, which financed the initial cache of volcano monitoring instruments and Perret’s work in 1911. The Hawaiian Volcano Research Association, a group of Honolulu businessmen organized by Lorrin A. Thurston, also provided essential funding for HVO’s daily operations starting in mid-1912 and continuing for several decades. Since HVO’s beginning, the University of Hawaiʻi (UH), called the College of Hawaii until 1920, has been an advocate of HVO’s scientific studies. We have benefited from collaborations with UH scientists at both the Hilo and Mänoa campuses and look forward to future cooperative efforts to better understand how Hawaiian volcanoes work. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated HVO continuously since 1947. Before then, HVO was under the administration of various Federal agencies—the U.S. Weather Bureau, at the time part of the Department of Agriculture, from 1919 to 1924; the USGS, which first managed HVO from 1924 to 1935; and the National Park Service from 1935 to 1947. For 76 of its first 100 years, HVO has been

  11. Floods of January 15-17, 1974, in Northwestern Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, M.V.; Omang, R.J.

    1974-01-01

    Introduction Rain and snowmelt caused several streams in northwestern Montana to flood during January 15-17, 1974. The flooding was caused by a major rainstorm that extended from Montana through Idaho and Washington. The most damage occurred in the Kootenai River drainage, centering around the town of Libby. Also unusually high flows occurred on some streams in the Clark Fork basin. Throughout the area, ice jams contributed to much of the overbank flooding. Both the towns of Troy and Libby were partly flooded, but damage was greatest in and near Libby. Flood damage was estimated to be $4.9 million. No flood fatalities were listed. Most of the smaller streams equaled or exceeded a 50-year flood. A summary of flood stages and discharges for 24 sites in the Kootenai River drainage and 8 sites in the Clark Fork drainage is tabulated. A map shows the extent of flooding in the Libby area. (Woodard-USGS)

  12. Somerset County Flood Information System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoppe, Heidi L.

    2007-01-01

    The timely warning of a flood is crucial to the protection of lives and property. One has only to recall the floods of August 2, 1973, September 16 and 17, 1999, and April 16, 2007, in Somerset County, New Jersey, in which lives were lost and major property damage occurred, to realize how costly, especially in terms of human life, an unexpected flood can be. Accurate forecasts and warnings cannot be made, however, without detailed information about precipitation and streamflow in the drainage basin. Since the mid 1960's, the National Weather Service (NWS) has been able to forecast flooding on larger streams in Somerset County, such as the Raritan and Millstone Rivers. Flooding on smaller streams in urban areas was more difficult to predict. In response to this problem the NWS, in cooperation with the Green Brook Flood Control Commission, installed a precipitation gage in North Plainfield, and two flash-flood alarms, one on Green Brook at Seeley Mills and one on Stony Brook at Watchung, in the early 1970's. In 1978, New Jersey's first countywide flood-warning system was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Somerset County. This system consisted of a network of eight stage and discharge gages equipped with precipitation gages linked by telephone telemetry and eight auxiliary precipitation gages. The gages were installed throughout the county to collect precipitation and runoff data that could be used to improve flood-monitoring capabilities and flood-frequency estimates. Recognizing the need for more detailed hydrologic information for Somerset County, the USGS, in cooperation with Somerset County, designed and installed the Somerset County Flood Information System (SCFIS) in 1990. This system is part of a statewide network of stream gages, precipitation gages, weather stations, and tide gages that collect data in real time. The data provided by the SCFIS improve the flood forecasting ability of the NWS and aid Somerset County and municipal agencies in

  13. An Evaluation of Selected Extraordinary Floods in the United States Reported by the U.S. Geological Survey and Implications for Future Advancement of Flood Science

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Costa, John E.; Jarrett, Robert D.

    2008-01-01

    Thirty flood peak discharges determine the envelope curve of maximum floods documented in the United States by the U.S. Geological Survey. These floods occurred from 1927 to 1978 and are extraordinary not just in their magnitude, but in their hydraulic and geomorphic characteristics. The reliability of the computed discharge of these extraordinary floods was reviewed and evaluated using current (2007) best practices. Of the 30 flood peak discharges investigated, only 7 were measured at daily streamflow-gaging stations that existed when the flood occurred, and 23 were measured at miscellaneous (ungaged) sites. Methods used to measure these 30 extraordinary flood peak discharges consisted of 21 slope-area measurements, 2 direct current-meter measurements, 1 culvert measurement, 1 rating-curve extension, and 1 interpolation and rating-curve extension. The remaining four peak discharges were measured using combinations of culvert, slope-area, flow-over-road, and contracted-opening measurements. The method of peak discharge determination for one flood is unknown. Changes to peak discharge or rating are recommended for 20 of the 30 flood peak discharges that were evaluated. Nine floods retained published peak discharges, but their ratings were downgraded. For two floods, both peak discharge and rating were corrected and revised. Peak discharges for five floods that are subject to significant uncertainty due to complex field and hydraulic conditions, were re-rated as estimates. This study resulted in 5 of the 30 peak discharges having revised values greater than about 10 percent different from the original published values. Peak discharges were smaller for three floods (North Fork Hubbard Creek, Texas; El Rancho Arroyo, New Mexico; South Fork Wailua River, Hawaii), and two peak discharges were revised upward (Lahontan Reservoir tributary, Nevada; Bronco Creek, Arizona). Two peak discharges were indeterminate because they were concluded to have been debris flows with peak

  14. Flood of August 1-6, 1950, at Wichita Falls, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yost, Ivan Dale

    1951-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to present certain rainfall and runoff data in the flood area in greater detail than is usually found in regular Water-Supply Papers. The report contains a summary of peak discharges at six points, and d~tailed records of discharge during the flood period at five points in the vicinity of Wichita Falls. The report also contains a discussion of rainfall associated with the flood and a description of the general features of the flood.

  15. On the estimation of the design flood of different dams in Sardinia (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cortis, C.; Barrui, M.; Montaldo, N.; Saba, A.; Albertson, J. D.

    2012-04-01

    methods for flood predictions. Furthermore local statistic of the rainfall IDF curve are analyzed, highlighting an interesting increase of rainfall extreme in the mountain East Sardinian rain stations (daily rainfall of almost 600 mm in December 2004). In this way synthetic hyetograph and hydrograph are estimated for the design flood of return period of 1000 years. The results show that the flood increases with the position of the peak of the hydrograph due to the soil saturation; the time peaks of the hydrograph and of the flood hydrograph are different: it depends on the propagation in the channel and on the soil permeability. In the last part of the work we use the hydrograph flood of the project calibrated to verify the safety of the dam for a return period of 1000 years. From these analysis the dams of the considered basins will be overflowed by a rain with a return period of less than 100 years.

  16. Estimation of peak-frequency relations, flood hydrographs, and volume-duration-frequency relations of ungaged small urban streams in Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sherwood, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Methods are presented to estimate peak-frequency relations, flood hydrographs, and volume-duration-frequency relations of urban streams in Ohio with drainage areas less than 6.5 square miles. The methods were developed to assist planners in the design of hydraulic structures for which hydrograph routing is required or where the temporary storage of water is an important element of the design criteria. Examples of how to use the methods also are presented. The data base for the analyses consisted of 5-minute rainfall-runoff data collected for a period of 5 to 8 years at 62 small drainage basins distributed throughout Ohio. The U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model A634 was used and was calibrated for each site. The calibrayed models were used in conjunction with long-term (66-87 years) rainfall and evaporation records to synthesize a long-term series of flood-hydrograph records at each site. A method was developed and used to increase the variance of the synthetic flood characterictics in order to make them more representative of observed flood characteristics. Multiple-regression equations were developed to estimate peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The explanatory variables in the peak-discharge equations are drainage area, average annual precipitation, and basin development factor. Average standard errors of prediction for the peak-frequency equations range from ? 34 to ? 40 percent. A method is presented to estimate flood hydrographs by applying a specific peak discharge and basin lagtime to a dimensionless hydrograph. An equation was developed to estimate basin lagtime in which main-channel length divided by the square root of the main-channel slope (L/SL) and basin-development factor are the explanatory variables and the average standard error of prediction is ? 53 percent. A dimensional hydrograph originally developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for use in Georgia was verified for use in urban areas of

  17. Accumulation of Pharmaceuticals, Enterococcus, and Resistance Genes in Soils Irrigated with Wastewater for Zero to 100 Years in Central Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Siebe, Christina; Willaschek, Elisha; Sakinc, Tuerkan; Huebner, Johannes; Amelung, Wulf; Grohmann, Elisabeth; Siemens, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Irrigation with wastewater releases pharmaceuticals, pathogenic bacteria, and resistance genes, but little is known about the accumulation of these contaminants in the environment when wastewater is applied for decades. We sampled a chronosequence of soils that were variously irrigated with wastewater from zero up to 100 years in the Mezquital Valley, Mexico, and investigated the accumulation of ciprofloxacin, enrofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, clarithromycin, carbamazepine, bezafibrate, naproxen, diclofenac, as well as the occurrence of Enterococcus spp., and sul and qnr resistance genes. Total concentrations of ciprofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole, and carbamazepine increased with irrigation duration reaching 95% of their upper limit of 1.4 µg/kg (ciprofloxacin), 4.3 µg/kg (sulfamethoxazole), and 5.4 µg/kg (carbamazepine) in soils irrigated for 19–28 years. Accumulation was soil-type-specific, with largest accumulation rates in Leptosols and no time-trend in Vertisols. Acidic pharmaceuticals (diclofenac, naproxen, bezafibrate) were not retained and thus did not accumulate in soils. We did not detect qnrA genes, but qnrS and qnrB genes were found in two of the irrigated soils. Relative concentrations of sul1 genes in irrigated soils were two orders of magnitude larger (3.15×10−3±0.22×10−3 copies/16S rDNA) than in non-irrigated soils (4.35×10−5±1.00×10−5 copies/16S rDNA), while those of sul2 exceeded the ones in non-irrigated soils still by a factor of 22 (6.61×10–4±0.59×10−4 versus 2.99×10−5±0.26×10−5 copies/16S rDNA). Absolute numbers of sul genes continued to increase with prolonging irrigation together with Enterococcus spp. 23S rDNA and total 16S rDNA contents. Increasing total concentrations of antibiotics in soil are not accompanied by increasing relative abundances of resistance genes. Nevertheless, wastewater irrigation enlarges the absolute concentration of resistance genes in soils due to a long-term increase in

  18. Accumulation of pharmaceuticals, Enterococcus, and resistance genes in soils irrigated with wastewater for zero to 100 years in central Mexico.

    PubMed

    Dalkmann, Philipp; Broszat, Melanie; Siebe, Christina; Willaschek, Elisha; Sakinc, Tuerkan; Huebner, Johannes; Amelung, Wulf; Grohmann, Elisabeth; Siemens, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Irrigation with wastewater releases pharmaceuticals, pathogenic bacteria, and resistance genes, but little is known about the accumulation of these contaminants in the environment when wastewater is applied for decades. We sampled a chronosequence of soils that were variously irrigated with wastewater from zero up to 100 years in the Mezquital Valley, Mexico, and investigated the accumulation of ciprofloxacin, enrofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, clarithromycin, carbamazepine, bezafibrate, naproxen, diclofenac, as well as the occurrence of Enterococcus spp., and sul and qnr resistance genes. Total concentrations of ciprofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole, and carbamazepine increased with irrigation duration reaching 95% of their upper limit of 1.4 µg/kg (ciprofloxacin), 4.3 µg/kg (sulfamethoxazole), and 5.4 µg/kg (carbamazepine) in soils irrigated for 19-28 years. Accumulation was soil-type-specific, with largest accumulation rates in Leptosols and no time-trend in Vertisols. Acidic pharmaceuticals (diclofenac, naproxen, bezafibrate) were not retained and thus did not accumulate in soils. We did not detect qnrA genes, but qnrS and qnrB genes were found in two of the irrigated soils. Relative concentrations of sul1 genes in irrigated soils were two orders of magnitude larger (3.15 × 10(-3) ± 0.22 × 10(-3) copies/16S rDNA) than in non-irrigated soils (4.35 × 10(-5)± 1.00 × 10(-5) copies/16S rDNA), while those of sul2 exceeded the ones in non-irrigated soils still by a factor of 22 (6.61 × 10(-4) ± 0.59 × 10(-4) versus 2.99 × 10(-5) ± 0.26 × 10(-5) copies/16S rDNA). Absolute numbers of sul genes continued to increase with prolonging irrigation together with Enterococcus spp. 23S rDNA and total 16S rDNA contents. Increasing total concentrations of antibiotics in soil are not accompanied by increasing relative abundances of resistance genes. Nevertheless, wastewater irrigation enlarges the absolute concentration of resistance genes in soils due to a long

  19. Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, M. J.; Botero, B. A.; López, J.; Francés, F.; Díez-Herrero, A.; Benito, G.

    2015-06-01

    Historical records are an important source of information on extreme and rare floods and fundamental to establish a reliable flood return frequency. The use of long historical records for flood frequency analysis brings in the question of flood stationarity, since climatic and land-use conditions can affect the relevance of past flooding as a predictor of future flooding. In this paper, a detailed 400 yr flood record from the Tagus River in Aranjuez (central Spain) was analysed under stationary and non-stationary flood frequency approaches, to assess their contribution within hazard studies. Historical flood records in Aranjuez were obtained from documents (Proceedings of the City Council, diaries, chronicles, memoirs, etc.), epigraphic marks, and indirect historical sources and reports. The water levels associated with different floods (derived from descriptions or epigraphic marks) were computed into discharge values using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. Secular variations in flood magnitude and frequency, found to respond to climate and environmental drivers, showed a good correlation between high values of historical flood discharges and a negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Over the systematic gauge record (1913-2008), an abrupt change on flood magnitude was produced in 1957 due to constructions of three major reservoirs in the Tagus headwaters (Bolarque, Entrepeñas and Buendia) controlling 80% of the watershed surface draining to Aranjuez. Two different models were used for the flood frequency analysis: (a) a stationary model estimating statistical distributions incorporating imprecise and categorical data based on maximum likelihood estimators, and (b) a time-varying model based on "generalized additive models for location, scale and shape" (GAMLSS) modelling, which incorporates external covariates related to climate variability (NAO index) and catchment hydrology factors (in this paper a reservoir index; RI). Flood frequency

  20. Estimation of peak-discharge frequency of urban streams in Jefferson County, Kentucky

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Gary R.; Ruhl, Kevin J.; Moore, Brian L.; Rose, Martin F.

    1997-01-01

    An investigation of flood-hydrograph characteristics for streams in urban Jefferson County, Kentucky, was made to obtain hydrologic information needed for waterresources management. Equations for estimating peak-discharge frequencies for ungaged streams in the county were developed by combining (1) long-term annual peakdischarge data and rainfall-runoff data collected from 1991 to 1995 in 13 urban basins and (2) long-term annual peak-discharge data in four rural basins located in hydrologically similar areas of neighboring counties. The basins ranged in size from 1.36 to 64.0 square miles. The U.S. Geological Survey Rainfall- Runoff Model (RRM) was calibrated for each of the urban basins. The calibrated models were used with long-term, historical rainfall and pan-evaporation data to simulate 79 years of annual peak-discharge data. Peak-discharge frequencies were estimated by fitting the logarithms of the annual peak discharges to a Pearson-Type III frequency distribution. The simulated peak-discharge frequencies were adjusted for improved reliability by application of bias-correction factors derived from peakdischarge frequencies based on local, observed annual peak discharges. The three-parameter and the preferred seven-parameter nationwide urban-peak-discharge regression equations previously developed by USGS investigators provided biased (high) estimates for the urban basins studied. Generalized-least-square regression procedures were used to relate peakdischarge frequency to selected basin characteristics. Regression equations were developed to estimate peak-discharge frequency by adjusting peak-dischargefrequency estimates made by use of the threeparameter nationwide urban regression equations. The regression equations are presented in equivalent forms as functions of contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and basin development factor, which is an index for measuring the efficiency of the basin drainage system. Estimates of peak discharges for streams

  1. More than 100 Years of Background-Level Sedimentary Metals, Nisqually River Delta, South Puget Sound, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Takesue, Renee K.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2011-01-01

    The Nisqually River Delta is located about 25 km south of the Tacoma Narrows in the southern reach of Puget Sound. Delta evolution is controlled by sedimentation from the Nisqually River and erosion by strong tidal currents that may reach 0.95 m/s in the Nisqually Reach. The Nisqually River flows 116 km from the Cascade Range, including the slopes of Mount Rainier, through glacially carved valleys to Puget Sound. Extensive tidal flats on the delta consist of late-Holocene silty and sandy strata from normal river streamflow and seasonal floods and possibly from distal sediment-rich debris flows associated with volcanic and seismic events. In the early 1900s, dikes and levees were constructed around Nisqually Delta salt marshes, and the reclaimed land was used for agriculture and pasture. In 1974, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge on the reclaimed land to protect migratory birds; its creation has prevented further human alteration of the Delta and estuary. In October 2009, original dikes and levees were removed to restore tidal exchange to almost 3 km2 of man-made freshwater marsh on the Nisqually Delta.

  2. Stochastic trigger model for flood peaks: 2. Application of the model to the flood peaks of Goksu-Karahacili

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kavvas, M. L.

    1982-04-01

    In order to assess the suitability of the stochastic trigger process in modeling flood peak occurrences in the time-discharge plane, the trigger process is applied to the flood peaks data of the Karahacili gaging station on the Goksu River, Turkey, in each of the flood seasons which are defined in the paper. The flood peak process in each flood season is treated as a transient stochastic process which starts at the beginning of the season and ends at the end of the season. Consequently, time-discharge nonhomogeneous trigger processes are used to model these seasonal flood peak processes. In each flood season the two-dimensional nonhomogeneous stochastic trigger (TDNST) model is calibrated by fitting its first theoretical time-discharge moment and its second theoretical time moment to the corresponding estimated moments of the observed flood peak counts at Goksu-Karahacili. Then in each flood season the theoretical two-dimensional probability mass function (pmf) of the variable discharge exceedence level (DEL) is calculated from the calibrated TDNST model for that flood season. The goodness of fit of the theoretical two-dimensional pmf to the empirical two-dimensional pmf of the Goksu-Karahacili flood peak counts in each flood season is tested by the chi-square goodness-of-fit (CSGQF) test. In all of the flood seasons the TDNST model passes the CSGOF test at discharge levels above the 500-m3/s DEL. This DEL corresponds to a river stage that is 1 m above the river bank stage at Goksu-Karahacili.

  3. Anti-reflux surgery - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... fundoplication - discharge; Toupet fundoplication - discharge; Thal fundoplication - discharge; Hiatal hernia repair - discharge; Endoluminal fundoplication - discharge; GERD - fundoplication discharge; ...

  4. Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

    2009-09-01

    .) influenced by flash flood events were sampled using an increment borer. For each tree sampled, additional information were recorded including the geographical position (GPS measure), the geomorphological situation based on a detailed geomorphological map, the social position within neighbouring trees, a description of the external disturbances and information on tree diameter, tree height and the position of the cores extracted. 265 cores were collected. In the laboratory, the 265 samples were analyzed using the standard methods: surface preparation, counting of tree rings as well as measuring of ring widths using a digital LINTAB positioning table and TSAP 4.6 software. Increment curves of the disturbed trees were then crossdated with a reference chronology in order to correct faulty tree-ring series derived from disturbed samples and to determine initiation of abrupt growth suppression or release. The age of the trees in this field site is between 50 and 100 years old. In the field most of the trees were tilted (93 %) and showed exposed roots (64 %). In the laboratory, growth suppressions were detected in 165 samples. Based on the number of trees showing disturbances, the intensity of the disturbance and the spatial distribution of the trees in the field, seven well represented events were dated for the last 50 years: 2005, 2000, 1996, 1976, 1973, 1966 and 1963. The second field site was a reach of 2 km length along the Arenal River, where the stream is channelized. Here stumps from previously felled trees could be analyzed directly in the field. 100 Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Fraxinus angustifolia (Vahl.) cross sections were investigated in order to date internal wounds. Different carpenter tools, sanding paper and magnifying glasses were used to count tree rings and to date the wounds in the field. In addition to the dating in the field, 22 cross sections were sampled and analyzed in the laboratory using the standard methods. The age of the trees ranges between 30

  5. Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City.

    PubMed

    Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Lin, Ning; Botzen, Wouter; Emanuel, Kerry; de Moel, Hans

    2013-05-01

    The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.

  6. Bone marrow transplant - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Transplant - bone marrow - discharge; Stem cell transplant - discharge; Hematopoietic stem cell transplant - discharge; Reduced intensity; Non-myeloablative transplant - discharge; Mini transplant - discharge; Allogenic bone marrow transplant - ...

  7. 6. CLOSEUP VIEW OF THE PUMP DISCHARGE CHANNEL, THE FLAP ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    6. CLOSEUP VIEW OF THE PUMP DISCHARGE CHANNEL, THE FLAP VALVES OF THE PUMPING UNITS 8, 6, AND 7 (L TO R) AND PART OF THE DISCHARGE WEIR OF THE INDIVIDUAL DISCHARGE CHAMBER OF PUMP NO. 5, LOOKING NORTHEAST. - Wyoming Valley Flood Control System, Woodward Pumping Station, East of Toby Creek crossing by Erie-Lackawanna Railroad, Edwardsville, Luzerne County, PA

  8. Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

    2011-12-01

    the surface precipitation and temperature and the set S (three experiments) applies an amplification factor to change the basal sliding velocity. The experiments are compared to a constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 100 years holding the climate constant to its present state. The experiments with the amplification factor (Set S) show high sensitivities. Relative to the control run, the scenario with an amplification factor of 3x applied to the sliding velocity produces a Greenland contribution to sea level rise of ~25 cm. An amplification factor of 2.5x produces a contribution of ~16 cm and an amplification factor 2x produces a contribution of ~9 cm. The experiments with the changes to the surface precipitation and temperature (set C) show a contribution to sea level rise of ~4 cm when a factor 1x is applied to the temperature and precipitation anomalies. A factor 1.5x produces a sea level rise of ~8 cm and a factor 2x produces a sea level rise of ~12 cm.

  9. The Hat Yai 2000 flood: the worst flood in Thai history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supharatid, Seree

    2006-02-01

    Hat Yai, the largest commercial and tourist city in southern Thailand, is subjected to regular flood events, primarily during the northeast monsoon period. Flooding in this region is recognized as a serious disaster in terms of frequency, rate of risk, and affected areas. The monsoon of 21-25 November 2000 caused extremely heavy rain in the southern part of Thailand, resulting in a great flood occupying Hat Yai. This caused significant damage. Therefore, the use of both structural and non-structural measures is mandatory to reduce the economic losses and the risk for society. This paper investigates two modelling approaches for flood prevention and mitigation of Hat Yai city. First, a hard computing approach by a physically distributed model was applied to study the flood behaviour in a two-dimensional floodplain flow. Second, a soft computing approach using a neuro-genetic algorithm was used to develop a flood-forecasting tool. It was found that the great flood of 2000 can be simulated well by the FLO-2D model. Computed discharges and flood level in the floodplain are close to the observed data. Countermeasures using diversion canals are guaranteed to accelerate the floodwater drainage to Songkla Lake, significantly reducing the flood impact to the people. In addition, the flood forecasting technique developed in this study can give satisfactory results. This would be very useful as a flood-warning tool for the community

  10. Summary of floods in the United States during 1967

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rostvedt, J.O.

    1972-01-01

    This report describes the most outstanding floods in the United States during 1967. The two most destructive floods occurred in August in east-central Alaska and in September and October in southern Texas. In east-central Alaska, heavy rain on August 8-17 produced record-breaking floods near Fairbanks. Peak discharges on some streams in the area were from two to four times the 50-yea.r flood. Flood damage was estimated to have been $85 million, and six lives were lost. Torrential rains produced by Hurricane Beulah caused record-breaking floods on many streams in a 50,000-square-mile area in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico in September and October. As much as 25.5 inches of rain was measured at ESSA Weather Bureau stations in the period September 19-25. Major flooding occurred in the basins of the Guadalupe, San Antonio, Mission, Arkansas, and Nueces Rivers and in many small coastal basins in Texas ; on the Rio Grande and its floodways ; and in the Rio Alamo and Rio San Juan basins in Mexico. Peak discharges at several sites in Texas were more than three times the magnitude of a 50-year flood. Total damage in Texas due to wind, rain, stream flooding, sheet flow, ponding, and tidal flooding was $167 million. In addition to the two floods mentioned above, 27 others of lesser magnitude are considered important enough to be included in this annual flood summary.

  11. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    recurrence flood plain maps of 10, 50 & 100 years intensity maps along with flood hazard maps for each watershed. It is of utmost significance for this study to be effective that the produced flood intensity and hazard maps will be made available to decision-makers, planners and relevant community stakeholders.

  12. Antarctic subglacial lake discharges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattyn, Frank

    Antarctic subglacial lakes were long time supposed to be relatively closed and stable environments with long residence times and slow circulations. This view has recently been challenged with evidence of active subglacial lake discharge underneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Satellite altimetry observations witnessed rapid changes in surface elevation across subglacial lakes over periods ranging from several months to more than a year, which were interpreted as subglacial lake discharge and subsequent lake filling, and which seem to be a common and widespread feature. Such discharges are comparable to jökulhlaups and can be modeled that way using the Nye-Röthlisberger theory. Considering the ice at the base of the ice sheet at pressure melting point, subglacial conduits are sustainable over periods of more than a year and over distances of several hundreds of kilometers. Coupling of an ice sheet model to a subglacial lake system demonstrated that small changes in surface slope are sufficient to start and sustain episodic subglacial drainage events on decadal time scales. Therefore, lake discharge may well be a common feature of the subglacial hydrological system, influencing the behavior of large ice sheets, especially when subglacial lakes are perched at or near the onset of large outlet glaciers and ice streams. While most of the observed discharge events are relatively small (101-102 m3 s-1), evidence for larger subglacial discharges is found in ice free areas bordering Antarctica, and witnessing subglacial floods of more than 106 m3 s-1 that occurred during the middle Miocene.

  13. Flood information for flood-plain planning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bue, Conrad D.

    1967-01-01

    Floods are natural and normal phenomena. They are catastrophic simply because man occupies the flood plain, the highwater channel of a river. Man occupies flood plains because it is convenient and profitable to do so, but he must purchase his occupancy at a price-either sustain flood damage, or provide flood-control facilities. Although large sums of money have been, and are being, spent for flood control, flood damage continues to mount. However, neither complete flood control nor abandonment of the flood plain is practicable. Flood plains are a valuable resource and will continue to be occupied, but the nature and degree of occupancy should be compatible with the risk involved and with the degree of protection that is practicable to provide. It is primarily to meet the needs for defining the risk that the flood-inundation maps of the U.S. Geological Survey are prepared.

  14. Revised techniques for estimating peak discharges from channel width in Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.; Omang, R.J.

    1987-01-01

    This study was conducted to develop new estimating equations based on channel width and the updated flood frequency curves of previous investigations. Simple regression equations for estimating peak discharges with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10 , 25, 50, and 100 years were developed for seven regions in Montana. The standard errors of estimates for the equations that use active channel width as the independent variables ranged from 30% to 87%. The standard errors of estimate for the equations that use bankfull width as the independent variable ranged from 34% to 92%. The smallest standard errors generally occurred in the prediction equations for the 2-yr flood, 5-yr flood, and 10-yr flood, and the largest standard errors occurred in the prediction equations for the 100-yr flood. The equations that use active channel width and the equations that use bankfull width were determined to be about equally reliable in five regions. In the West Region, the equations that use bankfull width were slightly more reliable than those based on active channel width, whereas in the East-Central Region the equations that use active channel width were slightly more reliable than those based on bankfull width. Compared with similar equations previously developed, the standard errors of estimate for the new equations are substantially smaller in three regions and substantially larger in two regions. Limitations on the use of the estimating equations include: (1) The equations are based on stable conditions of channel geometry and prevailing water and sediment discharge; (2) The measurement of channel width requires a site visit, preferably by a person with experience in the method, and involves appreciable measurement errors; (3) Reliability of results from the equations for channel widths beyond the range of definition is unknown. In spite of the limitations, the estimating equations derived in this study are considered to be as reliable as estimating equations based on basin and

  15. Effectiveness of Water Infrastructure for River Flood Management: Part 2 - Flood Risk Assessment and Its Changes in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwak, Y.; Gusyev, M.; Arifuzzaman, B.; Khairul, I.; Iwami, Y.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-06-01

    A case study of Bangladesh presents a methodological possibility based on a global approach for assessing river flood risk and its changes considering flood hazard, exposure, basic vulnerability and coping capacity. This study consists of two parts in the issue of flood change: hazard assessment (Part 1) and risk assessment (Part 2). In Part 1, a hazard modeling technology was introduced and applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) basin to quantify the change of 50- and 100-year flood hazards in Bangladesh under the present (1979-2003) and future (2075-2099) climates. Part 2 focuses on estimating nationwide flood risk in terms of affected people and rice crop damage due to a 50-year flood hazard identified in Part 1, and quantifying flood risk changes between the presence and absence of existing water infrastructure (i.e., embankments). To assess flood risk in terms of rice crop damage, rice paddy fields were extracted and flood stage-damage curves were created for maximum risk scenarios as a demonstration of risk change in the present and future climates. The preliminary results in Bangladesh show that a tendency of flood risk change strongly depends on the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure and vulnerability such as distributed population and effectiveness of water infrastructure, which suggests that the proposed methodology is applicable anywhere in the world.

  16. Flood-profile analysis, Big Darby Creek at State Route 762, Orient, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartlett, W.P.; Sherwood, J.M.

    1984-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation, made a hydraulic analysis of the 25- and 100-year floods on Big Darby Creek where State Route 762 crosses the stream at Orient, Ohio. Two proposed bridge plans were analyzed to determine the effects on flood profiles subsequent to the placement of a 376-foot-long, four-span deck bridge across the stream 90 feet upstream of the existing State Route 762 bridge. In plan 1, the brigde is set at a 25-degrees skew to the river and at sufficient elevation to pass the 100-year flood below it. In plan 2, the skew is 28 degrees and elevations are 3 feet lower than in plan 1, which result in partial submergence of the bridge during the 100-year flood. This analysis shows that the 25-year flood profiles upstream of the new bridge would increase by 0.4 foot if plan 1 is adopted and by 0.3 foot if plan 2 is adopted. Both profiles converge with the present-condition profiles 5,750 feet upstream. The profiles for the 100-year flood would increase by 0.6 foot plan 1 and 1.1 feet for plan 2. This additional backwater affects profiles is 0.1 foot higher than for present conditions, and the plan 2 profile is 0.2 foot higher than profiles for present conditions.

  17. Floods of Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, January-February 1937, with a section on the Flood deposits of the Ohio River, January-February 1937

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grover, Nathan Clifford; Mansfield, George Rogers

    1938-01-01

    This water-supply paper presents records of stage and discharge for the period including the floods at about 250 measurement stations, records of stage and discharge for the period including the floods at about 250 measurement stations, records of sto

  18. Paleohydraulics and hydrodynamics of Scabland floods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, V. R.

    1978-01-01

    The last major episode of scabland flooding (approx. 18,000-13,000 years B.P.) left considerable high-water mark evidence in the form of: (1) eroded channel margins; (2) depositional features; (3) ice-rafter erratics; and (4) divide crossings. These were used to reconstruct maximum flood stages and water-surface gradients. Engineering hydraulic calculation procedures allowed the analyses of flood discharges and mean velocities from these data. Secondary flow phenomena, including various forms of vortices and flow separations, are considered to have been the principal erosive processes. The intense pressure and velocity gradients of vortices along the irregular channel boundaries produced the plucking-type erosion.

  19. Post Flood Report March/April 1987.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-04-01

    r. 0 ’a Ŕ z 4J % S I-- o LA.) C(0 0D 7 C. MERRIMACK RIVER BASIN During the first flood, discharges in the Merrimack River from Franklin, NH to...Nashua, NH were kept below flood levels; downstream of the Massachusetts State line the river peaked at about flood stage. Nonetheless, heavy rains of the...cfs) (cfs) Franklin NH 14,000 59,000 - - Concord, NH 21,000 72,500 29,000 50,000 Goffs Falls, NH 38,000 83,500 48,000 68,500 (Manchester) Lowell, MA

  20. City-scale accessibility of emergency responders operating during flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Pattison, Ian; Wilby, Robert; Bosher, Lee; Patel, Ramila; Thompson, Philip; Trowell, Keith; Draycon, Julia; Halse, Martin; Yang, Lili; Ryley, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Emergency responders often have to operate and respond to emergency situations during dynamic weather conditions, including floods. This paper demonstrates a novel method using existing tools and datasets to evaluate emergency responder accessibility during flood events within the city of Leicester, UK. Accessibility was quantified using the 8 and 10 min legislative targets for emergency provision for the ambulance and fire and rescue services respectively under "normal" no-flood conditions, as well as flood scenarios of various magnitudes (1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year recurrence intervals), with both surface water and fluvial flood conditions considered. Flood restrictions were processed based on previous hydrodynamic inundation modelling undertaken and inputted into a Network Analysis framework as restrictions for surface water and fluvial flood events. Surface water flooding was shown to cause more disruption to emergency responders operating within the city due to its widespread and spatially distributed footprint when compared to fluvial flood events of comparable magnitude. Fire and rescue 10 min accessibility was shown to decrease from 100, 66.5, 39.8 and 26.2 % under the no-flood, 1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year surface water flood scenarios respectively. Furthermore, total inaccessibility was shown to increase with flood magnitude from 6.0 % under the 1 in 20-year scenario to 31.0 % under the 1 in 100-year flood scenario. Additionally, the evolution of emergency service accessibility throughout a surface water flood event is outlined, demonstrating the rapid impact on emergency service accessibility within the first 15 min of the surface water flood event, with a reduction in service coverage and overlap being observed for the ambulance service during a 1 in 100-year flood event. The study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during emergency response to flood events at the city

  1. Geochemistry and flooding as determining factors of plant species composition in Dutch winter-flooded riverine grasslands.

    PubMed

    Beumer, Victor; van Wirdum, Geert; Beltman, Boudewijn; Griffioen, Jasper; Grootjans, Ab P; Verhoeven, Jos T A

    2008-08-25

    Dutch water policy aims for more frequent, controlled flooding of river valley floodplains to avoid unwanted flooding elsewhere; in anticipation of increased flooding risks resulting from climate changes. Controlled flooding usually takes place in winter in parts of the valleys which had not been subject to flooding in the last decades. It may thus affect existing nature with its conservation values. The goal of this study was to clarify the geochemical and hydrological factors determining plant species composition of winter-flooded river valley grasslands. A correlative study was carried out in 43 sites in 13 Dutch river valley floodplains, with measurements of flooding regime, vegetation composition, soil nutrients and soil pH status. With the use of canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) the plant species composition was investigated in relation to the geochemical variables and the winter winter-flooding regime. We found that the distributions of target species and non-target species were clearly correlated with geochemical characteristics and flooding regime. Clustering of sites within the CCA plots has led us to distinguish between four types of winter flooding in our areas: floodplains with (a) accumulating rain water, (b) low groundwater levels flooded with river water, (c) discharging groundwater and (d) high groundwater levels flooded with river water. Our major conclusions are (1) the winter groundwater level of winter-flooded grasslands was important for evaluating the effects of winter flooding on the geochemistry and plant species composition, and (2) winter winter-flooding effects were largely determined by the nature of the flooding. A high frequency of flooding particularly favoured a small set of common plant species. In areas with groundwater seepage, winter flooding may provide geochemical conditions suitable for diverse vegetation types with rare species. Rainwater flooded sites appeared less suitable for most target species.

  2. Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Comayagua, Hondura

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

    2002-01-01

    After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Comayagua that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Comayagua as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada at Comayagua were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Humuya at Comayagua, 1,400 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The reasonableness of the regression discharge was evaluated by comparing it with drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated for three long-term Rio Humuya stream-gaging stations. The drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated from the gage records ranged from 946 to 1,365 cubic meters per second. Because the regression equation discharge agrees closely with the high end of the range of discharges estimated from the gaging-station records, it was used for the hydraulic modeling to ensure that the resulting 50-year-flood water-surface elevations would not be underestimated. The 50-year-flood

  3. Past and present floods in South Moravia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš; Stachoň, Zdeněk; Soukalová, Eva; Dobrovolný, Petr

    2015-04-01

    Floods represent the most destructive natural phenomena in the Czech Republic, often causing great material damage or loss of human life. Systematic instrumental measurements of water levels in Moravia (the eastern part of the Czech Republic) started mainly in the 1880s-1890s, while for discharges it was in the 1910s-1920s. Different documentary evidence allows extension of our knowledge about floods prior the instrumental period. The paper presents long-term flood chronologies for four South Moravian rivers: the Jihlava, the Svratka, the Dyje and the Morava. Different documentary data are used to extract floods. Taxation records are of particular importance among them. Since the mid-17th century, damage to property and land (fields, meadows, pastures or gardens) entitled farmers and landowners to request a tax relief. Related documents of this administration process kept mainly in Moravian Land Archives in Brno allow to obtain detail information about floods and their impacts. Selection of floods in the instrumental period is based on calculation of N-year return period of peak water levels and/or peak discharges for selected hydrological stations of the corresponding rivers (with return period of two years and more). Final flood chronologies combine floods derived from both documentary data and hydrological measurements. Despite greater inter-decadal variability, periods of higher flood frequency are c. 1821-1850 and 1921-1950 for all four rivers; for the Dyje and Morava rivers also 1891-1900. Flood frequency fluctuations are further compared with other Central European rivers. Uncertainties in created chronologies with respect to data and methods used for compilation of long-term series and anthropogenic changes in river catchments are discussed. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia derived from documentary evidence" supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, reg. no. 13-19831S.

  4. Tsunami flooding

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric; Jones, Henry; McBride, Mark; Fedors, Randy

    2013-01-01

    Panel 5 focused on tsunami flooding with an emphasis on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) as derived from its counterpart, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) that determines seismic ground-motion hazards. The Panel reviewed current practices in PTHA and determined the viability of extending the analysis to extreme design probabilities (i.e., 10-4 to 10-6). In addition to earthquake sources for tsunamis, PTHA for extreme events necessitates the inclusion of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides, and treatment of the large attendant uncertainty in source characterization and recurrence rates. Tsunamis can be caused by local and distant earthquakes, landslides, volcanism, and asteroid/meteorite impacts. Coastal flooding caused by storm surges and seiches is covered in Panel 7. Tsunamis directly tied to earthquakes, the similarities with (and path forward offered by) the PSHA approach for PTHA, and especially submarine landslide tsunamis were a particular focus of Panel 5.

  5. Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Meyer, Robert W.

    1995-01-01

    Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

  6. The deadliest storm of the 20th century striking Portugal: Flood impacts and atmospheric circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Catarina; Pereira, Susana S.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Zêzere, José L.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

    2016-10-01

    The deadliest storm affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities. This work aims to assess the most relevant aspects of this episode. This includes describing the associated meteorological conditions and key hydrological characterisation such as the level of exceptionality of the observed precipitation at different temporal scales, or the estimation of peak discharge values in 20 small river catchments affected. Additionally, from a human impact perspective we provide a full account of all the main socio-economic impacts, particularly the numbers and location of victims (dead, injured, homeless and evacuated). Based on the sub-daily time series of a representative station, and its Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, we have found that the exceptionality of this rainfall event is particularly linked to rainfall intensities ranging in duration from 4 to 9 h compatible with return periods of 100-years or more. This range of time scale which are similar to the estimated concentration time values of the hydrographic basins affected by the flash flood event. From a meteorological perspective, this episode was characterised by strong convection at the regional scale, fuelled by high availability of moisture over the Lisbon region associated with a low pressure system centered near Lisbon that favoured the convective instability. Most victims were sleeping or were caught by surprise at home in the small river catchments around the main Lisbon metropolitan area. The majority of people who died or who were severely affected by the flood lived in degraded housing conditions often raised in a clandestine way, occupying flood plains near the stream beds. This level of destruction observed at the time is in stark contrast to what was observed in subsequent episodes of similar amplitude. In particular, since 1967 the Lisbon area, was struck by two comparable intense precipitation events in

  7. Septoplasty - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000246.htm Septoplasty - discharge To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Septoplasty is surgery to correct any problems in the ...

  8. Osteomyelitis - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000297.htm Osteomyelitis - discharge To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. You have osteomyelitis , a bone infection caused by bacteria or other ...

  9. Cirrhosis - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000290.htm Cirrhosis - discharge To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. You have cirrhosis of the liver. Scar tissue forms and your ...

  10. Extending flood-frequency graphs by comparison with rainfall

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langbein, W.B.

    1955-01-01

    Flood discharge is the consequence of many contributing hydrologic events which may be presumed to occur fortuitously and independently, such that the probability of a given flood is the product of the probability of each independent contributing event.  Of the many factors that lead to a flood, the two most prominent are (1) storm rainfall and (2) the "antecedent conditions" (3.g., conditions of the soil encountered by the rainstorm).

  11. Flood of September 2008 in Northwestern Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.; Arvin, Donald V.

    2010-01-01

    During September 12-15, 2008, rainfall ranging from 2 to more than 11 inches fell on northwestern Indiana. The rainfall resulted in extensive flooding on many streams within the Lake Michigan and Kankakee River Basins during September 12-18, causing two deaths, evacuation of hundreds of residents, and millions of dollars of damage to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, six counties in northwestern Indiana were declared Federal disaster areas. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages at four locations recorded new record peak streamflows as a result of the heavy rainfall. Peak-gage-height data, peak-streamflow data, annual exceedance probabilities, and recurrence intervals are tabulated in this report for 10 USGS streamgages in northwestern Indiana. Recurrence intervals of flood-peak streamflows were estimated to be greater than 100 years at six streamgages. Because flooding was particularly severe in the communities of Munster, Dyer, Hammond, Highland, Gary, Lake Station, Hobart, Schererville, Merrillville, Michiana Shores, and Portage, high-water-park data collected after the flood were tabulated for those communities. Flood peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for selected streams were made in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available.

  12. Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choluteca, Honduras

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

    2002-01-01

    After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choluteca that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choluteca as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca at Choluteca were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choluteca at Choluteca is 4,620 cubic meters per second, which is the drainage-area-adjusted weighted-average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Choluteca en Puente Choluteca. One discharge, 4,913 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 17 years of peak discharge record for the gage, and the other, 2,650 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 4,530 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Choluteca was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage

  13. Cardiac catheterization - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Catheterization - cardiac - discharge; Heart catheterization - discharge: Catheterization - cardiac; Heart catheterization; Angina - cardiac catheterization discharge; CAD - cardiac catheterization discharge; Coronary artery disease - cardiac catheterization ...

  14. Newborn jaundice - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... Jaundice of the newborn - discharge; Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia - discharge; Breastfeeding jaundice - discharge; Physiologic jaundice - discharge Images Exchange transfusion - series Infant jaundice References Kaplan M, ...

  15. Kidney removal - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... nephrectomy - discharge; Open nephrectomy - discharge; Laparoscopic nephrectomy - discharge; Partial nephrectomy - discharge ... Plan to have someone drive you home from the hospital. DO NOT drive yourself home. You may ...

  16. Atrial fibrillation - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Auricular fibrillation - discharge; A-fib - discharge; AF - discharge; Afib - discharge ... been in the hospital because you have atrial fibrillation . This condition occurs when your heart beats faster ...

  17. Use of indexed historical floods in flood frequency estimation with Fuzzy Bayesian methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salinas, Jose; Viglione, Alberto; Kiss, Andrea; Bloeschl, Guenter

    2015-04-01

    Efforts of the historical environmental extremes community during the last decades have resulted in the existence of long time series of floods, for example in Central Europe and the Mediterranean region, which in some cases range longer than 500 years in the past. In most of the cases the flood time series are presented in terms of indices, representing a combination of socio-economic indicators for the flood impact, e.g. economic damage, flood duration and extension, ... In hydrological engineering, historical floods are very useful because they give additional information which will reduce the uncertainty in estimates of discharges with low annual exceedance probabilities, i.e. with high return periods. In order to use the historical floods in formal flood frequency analysis, the precise value of the peak discharges would ideally be known, but as commented, they are most usually given in term of indices. This work presents a novel method on how to obtain a prior distribution for the parameters of the annual peak discharges distribution from indexed historical floods time series. The prior distribution is incorporated in the flood frequency estimation via Bayesian methods (see e.g. Viglione et al., 2013) in order to reduce the uncertainties in the design flood estimates. The historical data used is subject to a high degree of uncertainty and unpreciseness. In this sense, a framework is presented where the discharge thresholds between flood indices are modeled as fuzzy numbers. These fuzzy thresholds will define a fuzzy prior distribution, which will requires to apply Fuzzy Bayesian Inference (Viertl, 2008ab) to obtain fuzzy credibility intervals for the design floods. Viertl, R. (2008a) Foundations of Fuzzy Bayesian Inference, Journal of Uncertain Systems, 2, 187-191. Viertl, R. (2008b) Fuzzy Bayesian Inference. In: Soft Methods For Handling Variability And Imprecision. Advances In Soft Computing. Vol. 48. Springer-Verlag Berlin, pp 10-15. Viglione, A., R. Merz

  18. Hydraulic Reconstructions of Outburst Floods on Earth and Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lapotre, M. G. A.; Lamb, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Large outburst floods on Earth and Mars have carved bedrock canyons in basalt that often have steep sidewalls and amphitheater heads, suggesting erosion by waterfall retreat and block toppling. Two paleohydraulic methods are typically used to reconstruct flood discharges. The first is based on the discharge required to move sediment, which requires rare grain-size data and is necessarily a lower bound. The second assumes bedrock canyons are entirely inundated, which likely greatly overestimates the discharge of canyon carving floods. Here we explore a third hypothesis that canyon width is an indicator of flood discharge. For example, we expect that for large floods relative to the canyon width, the canyon will tend to widen as water spills over and erodes the canyon sidewalls. In contrast, small floods, relative to the canyon size will tend to focus flow into the canyon head, resulting in a narrowing canyon. To test this hypothesis, we need data on how outburst floods focus water into canyons across a wide range of canyon and flood sizes. To fill this data gap, we performed a series of numerical simulations solving the 2D depth-averaged shallow water equations for turbulent flow. We analyzed the effect of five non-dimensional parameters on the shear stress and discharge distributions around head and sidewalls of canyons of different sizes. The Froude number of the flood has the greatest effect on the distribution of shear stresses and discharges around the canyon rim; higher Froude numbers lead to less convergence of the flow towards the canyon, and thus to lower shear stresses (and discharges) on the sides of the canyon. Simulation results show that canyons of constant width were likely carved by floods within a relatively narrow range of discharges. The range of discharges is sensitive to the Froude number and size of blocks that are toppled at the canyon head, both of which can be estimated from field and remotely sensed data. Example applications on Earth and

  19. Extreme coastal flood risk with sea level rise: New definitions and analysis for the contiguous US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

    2013-12-01

    The '100-year flood' - formally defined as a flood with 0.01 annual probability - is a standard policy and regulatory benchmark for risk in the United States. However, there is increasing recognition that the traditional concept does not apply in a warming world. This is particularly the case with respect to coastal flooding, because at most locations, sea level rise is increasing the risk of flooding to any given height with each passing decade. Here we propose a flexible approach to defining extreme coastal flood height that employs different periods of interest and takes changing risks into account, while maintaining some consistency with the legacy definition. We note that in a stationary world, a 0.01 annual chance flood is equivalent to a flood with cumulative probability P(N) = 1 - 0.99^N over a period of N years. We compute P(N) for N=1 to 100 years, and then estimate the corresponding extreme coastal flood height H(N) for each period length, taking into account projected local sea level rise at each of 55 water level stations distributed throughout the contiguous US, and employing various sea level rise scenarios. In one result, employing a 50-yr interval and the high-intermediate global sea level scenario developed for the National Climate Assessment, we find that the height of extreme floods increases by an average of roughly 0.4 m or 40%, as compared to the traditional definition that assumes unchanging risk. Such discrepancies are compounded when we estimate extreme flood risk under the new approach as it would be calculated for periods beginning in future years, leading to rapid expansion of 100-year flood risk zones.

  20. The Bosna River floods in May 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidmar, A.; Globevnik, L.; Koprivšek, M.; Sečnik, M.; Zabret, K.; Ðurović, B.; Anzeljc, D.; Kastelic, J.; Kobold, M.; Sušnik, M.; Borojevič, D.; Kupusović, T.; Kupusović, E.; Vihar, A.; Brilly, M.

    2015-10-01

    In May 2014, extreme floods occurred in the lower Sava River basin, causing major damage, with catastrophic consequences. Based on the data gathered, the weather situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) Bosna River basin was analysed and the hydrological conditions were provided, including the results of the probability analysis of the size of the recorded precipitation and flow rates. A hydrological model of the Bosna River basin was developed using HBV-light for the purposes of reconstructing and forecasting such events more effectively. All analyses confirmed that the May 2014 event was an extreme event whose returning period greatly exceeds 100 years.

  1. Flood of July 21, 1975 in Mercer County, New Jersey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stankowski, Stephen J.; Schopp, Robert D.; Velnich, Anthony J.

    1975-01-01

    Intense rainfall during the evening of July 20 and early morning hours of July 21, 1975 caused flooding of unprecedented magnitude in highly urbanized Mercer County, New Jersey. Over 6 inches (152 millimetres) of rainfall was recorded during a 10-hour period at Trenton, the capital of New Jersey. No lives were lost but damages to highways and bridges, to industrial, business, and residential buildings, to farmlands and crops, and to water supply systems were severe. This report illustrates the magnitude of the flood and provides hydrologic data needed for planning and design to control or lessen damages from future floods. It includes discussions of the antecedent conditions and meteorological aspects of the storm; a description of the flood and comparison to previous floods; a summary of flood stages and discharges; a discussion of flood frequency; and photomosaics which show inundated areas. More than 200 high-water marks are described as to location and elevation above mean sea level.

  2. Climate change impacts on future flooding in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirza, M.

    2003-04-01

    Bangladesh is located at the tail end of the three large river systems- the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna. About 92.5% of the basin area is located outside of its boundary. The country is frequently devastated by floods and can engulf up to 70% of the country. Economic damage could be as high as 10% of the GDP. Cross border and local precipitation plays a major role in generating floods in Bangladesh. However, precipitation over some cross border areas is really crucial for the flooding process. Any change in precipitation regime in those areas in future may aggravate flooding in Bangladesh. In this paper future flooding situation in Bangladesh has been assessed in a three-step procedure. First, stepwise regression method was applied to identify climatologically important regions those contribute to flooding. Second, precipitation scenarios were constructed. Third, the scenarios were applied in the regression models to determine future flood discharges in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers in Bangladesh.

  3. Recent trends in U.S. flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slater, Louise J.; Villarini, Gabriele

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is projected to become more frequent as warming temperatures amplify the atmosphere's water holding capacity and increase the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. However, there is still little evidence of regional changes in flood risk across the USA. Here we present a novel approach assessing the trends in inundation frequency above the National Weather Service's four flood level categories in 2042 catchments. Results reveal stark regional patterns of changing flood risk that are broadly consistent above the four flood categories. We show that these patterns are dependent on the overall wetness and potential water storage, with fundamental implications for water resources management, agriculture, insurance, navigation, ecology, and populations living in flood-affected areas. Our findings may assist in a better communication of changing flood patterns to a wider audience compared with the more traditional approach of stating trends in terms of discharge magnitudes and frequencies.

  4. Simultaneous occurrences of floods in mesoscale catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bàrdossy, Andràs

    2016-04-01

    Floods in mesoscale catchments are often the result of intense precipitation of varying duration. The spatial extent of precipitation is linked to the extent of flooding. The simultaneous occurrence of floods in different medium size catchments is often the reason for large scale floods. The spatial behavior of extreme precipitation and discharge can be investigated using copulas and extreme indices. The relationship between intense precipitations measured at different locations depends on the large scale meteorological conditions. Depending on the geographic location and the dominating weather pattern certain catchments have frequent simultaneous extremes while others behave in a complementary fashion. The purpose of this work is to investigate the simultaneous and complementary occurrence of floods in catchments using copulas conditioned on atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Circulation patterns responsible for simultaneous floods are identified using areal precipitation and/or unusual discharge increases. Patterns are identified using a fuzzy rule based approach based on anomalies of the 700 hPa surfaces. The rules are formed by maximizing the explained variance under the assumption of simultaneous and complementary behavior. The conditional copulas are investigated for extreme behavior. Besides the traditional bivariate investigations higher dimensional dependences are investigated using an entropy based approach.

  5. Estimation of flood peaks from channel characteristics in Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roth, D.K.

    1985-01-01

    Regression equations were developed to estimate flood peaks with selected recurrence intervals of 2 to 100 years for Ohio streams with alluvial and bedrock channels. CHannel-geometry characteristics, rather than basin characteristics, were used as independent variables. Width of active channel was the only channel-geometry characteristic significant at the 5-percent level in the estimating equations for alluvial channels. Standard errors of estimate for those equations range for the 100-year flood peak. The equations were developed from data collected at 142 gaging stations that have active-channel widths ranging from 2 to 495 feet. For streams with bedrock or firm channels, depth of the bankfull channel and active-channel width were statistically significant characteristics at the 5-percent level for all but the 2-year recurrence interval flood-peak equation, for which only active-channel width was statistically significant. Standard errors of estimate range from 33 percent for the 5-year flood peak to 40 percent for the 100-year flood peak when both significant variables are included in the equations. Standard errors of estimate range from 36 percent to 46 percent when only the active-channel width independent variable is used. These equations are based on channel-geometry data collected at 20 gaging stations that have active-channel widths ranging from 14 to 240 feet and average bankfull-channel depths ranging from 2.5 to 9.2 feet. Channel-geometry characteristics also were measured at 168 ungaged sites to provide information that can be used to better define the geographic-area boundaries in three areas of Ohio where the boundaries were previously defined in a flood magnitude and frequency report.

  6. Flood Response Along a Drainage Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meierdiercks, K. L.; Smith, J. A.; Miller, A. J.; Baeck, M.

    2007-12-01

    Flooding in urban areas is complex. As water overtops stream banks, it comes into contact with structural obstacles on the land surface, such as bridge constrictions, that dominate flow pathways. Furthermore, at small, or local, spatial scales, other hydraulic controls such as pipe surcharge and stormwater management ponds play a significant role in flood response. A major obstacle towards a better understanding of how these controls impact flood response is the scarcity of data available to characterize them. One watershed where both hydraulic and hydrologic data is available is the Dead Run watershed in Metropolitan Baltimore, Maryland. Dead Run is a research watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES), part of the Long Term Ecological Research network established by the National Science Foundation. Dead Run geospatial data is available through the BES and Baltimore County; hydrologic data was collected by the authors during field campaigns in the 2003-2005 field seasons; and hydraulic information including storm drain pipes, stormwater management ponds, and bridge constrictions was digitized by the author. The availability of this data in Dead Run allows us to detail not only the impact of impervious surfaces and hydrologic forcing on flood response, but also structural aspects of the urban drainage network. In this study, we integrate the three types of observations - geospatial, hydrologic, and hydraulic - to characterize drainage network structure along Dead Run's tributaries. We use these characterizations and the Environmental Protection Agency's Stormwater Management Model (EPA SWMM) to estimate the 10- and 100-year floods over the drainage network. Analyses focus on two extreme floods in Dead Run: the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 events. Results highlight the importance of incorporating drainage network structure into the models we use to predict flooding in urban environments.

  7. Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Nacaome, Honduras

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

    2002-01-01

    After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Nacaome that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Nacaome, Rio Grande, and Rio Guacirope. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Nacaome as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Nacaome, Rio Grande, and Rio Guacirope at Nacaome were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at two bridges. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Nacaome at Nacaome, 5,040 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Nacaome en Las Mercedes, located about 13 kilometers upstream from Nacaome. One of the discharges, 4,549 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 16 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 1,922 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges is 3,770 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharges for Rio Grande, 3,890 cubic meters per

  8. Floods of 1952 in California. Flood of January 1952 in the south San Francisco Bay region; Snowmelt flood of 1952 in Kern River, Tulare Lake, and San Joaquin River basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rantz, S.E.; Stafford, H.M.

    1956-01-01

    Two major floods occurred in California in 1952. The first was the flood of January 11-13 in the south San Francisco Bay region that resulted from heavy rains which began on the morning of January 11 and ended about noon January 13. This flood was notable for the magnitude of the peak discharges, although these discharges were reduced by the controlling effect of reservoirs for conservation and flood-control purposes. The flood damage was thereby reduced, and no lives were lost; damage, nevertheless, amounted to about $1.400.000. The second flood was due, not to the immediate runoff of heavy rain, but to the melting of one of the largest snow packs ever recorded in the Sierra Nevada range. In the spring and summer of 1952, flood runoff occurred on all the major streams draining the Sierra Nevada. In the northern half of the Central Valley basin?the Sacramento River basin?flood volumes and maximum daily discharges were not exceptional. and flood damage was not appreciable. However, in the southern half, which is formed by the Kern River, Tulare Lake, and San Joaquin River basins, new records for snowmelt runoff were established for some streams; but for below-normal temperatures and shorter, less warm hot spells, record flood discharges would have occurred on many others. In the three basins an area of 200,000 acres. largely cropland. was inundated, and damage was estimated at $11,800,000.

  9. Surging glaciers and glacial floods in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, J. M.

    2003-04-01

    A review of glacial hazards in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan, has identified 52 catastrophic floods that have occurred between 1826 and 2000 arising from ice dam failures and glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Surging glaciers have formed large ice dams, where the rapid glacier advances have blocked the adjacent river, and have failed subsequently releasing up to 3 km^3 of water in less than 48 hrs with peak discharges in excess of 40,000 m^3/s. Such catastrophic floods have had run-out distances in excess of 1,200 km and have caused major damage downstream and resulted in many hundreds of fatalities. Since 1980, 75% of recorded glacier-derived floods have originated from GLOFs with only few ice dam failures associated with surging glaciers. Glacier surges have occurred in clusters with individual glaciers going through phases of active surging and then quiescent periods in from 30 to over 100 years. Previous reviews of surging glaciers in the Upper Indus Basin have identified 20 glaciers that have demonstrated surge-type behaviour with the bulk of glacier surges apparently occurring prior to 1933. However, recent satellite imagery (Landsat-5 from 1998/99) has shown that there are a further 16 glaciers that have surged within this region, with several surging simultaneously and in recent years. At least one glacier has been identified on satellite imagery as going through a surge from 1998 to June 2001 when the resultant ice dam failed producing a locally devastating flood. The study has also demonstrated that there is no obvious link between what triggers an individual glacier to surge and climate change. Furthermore, within this seismically very active area, there is no evidence that earthquakes have triggered either surges, collapses of ice dams, or failures of other glacial lake dams, over the period 1927--2001 for which records are available. Surge behaviour within composite glaciers results in highly complex structural effects especially where tributary

  10. Floods, flood control, and bottomland vegetation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Friedman, Jonathan M.; Auble, Gregor T.

    2000-01-01

    Bottomland plant communities are typically dominated by the effects of floods. Floods create the surfaces on which plants become established, transport seeds and nutrients, and remove establish plants. Floods provide a moisture subsidy that allows development of bottomland forests in arid regions and produce anoxic soils, which can control bottomland plant distribution in humid regions. Repeated flooding produces a mosaic of patches of different age, sediment texture, and inundation duration; this mosaic fosters high species richness.

  11. Proper estimation of hydrological parameters from flood forecasting aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyamoto, Mamoru; Matsumoto, Kazuhiro; Tsuda, Morimasa; Yamakage, Yuzuru; Iwami, Yoichi; Yanami, Hitoshi; Anai, Hirokazu

    2016-04-01

    The hydrological parameters of a flood forecasting model are normally calibrated based on an entire hydrograph of past flood events by means of an error assessment function such as mean square error and relative error. However, the specific parts of a hydrograph, i.e., maximum discharge and rising parts, are particularly important for practical flood forecasting in the sense that underestimation may lead to a more dangerous situation due to delay in flood prevention and evacuation activities. We conducted numerical experiments to find the most proper parameter set for practical flood forecasting without underestimation in order to develop an error assessment method for calibration appropriate for flood forecasting. A distributed hydrological model developed in Public Works Research Institute (PWRI) in Japan was applied to fifteen past floods in the Gokase River basin of 1,820km2 in Japan. The model with gridded two-layer tanks for the entire target river basin included hydrological parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, surface roughness and runoff coefficient, which were set according to land-use and soil-type distributions. Global data sets, e.g., Global Map and Digital Soil Map of the World (DSMW), were employed as input data for elevation, land use and soil type. The values of fourteen types of parameters were evenly sampled with 10,001 patterns of parameter sets determined by the Latin Hypercube Sampling within the search range of each parameter. Although the best reproduced case showed a high Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.9 for all flood events, the maximum discharge was underestimated in many flood cases. Therefore, two conditions, which were non-underestimation in the maximum discharge and rising parts of a hydrograph, were added in calibration as the flood forecasting aptitudes. The cases with non-underestimation in the maximum discharge and rising parts of the hydrograph also showed a high Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.9 except two flood cases

  12. Texas floods of 1940

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breeding, Seth D.

    1948-01-01

    Floods occurred in Texas during, June, July, and November 1940 that exceeded known stages on many small streams and at a few places on the larger streams. Stages at several stream-gaging stations exceeded the maximum known at those places since the collection of daily records began. A storm, haying its axis generally on a north-south line from Cameron to Victoria and extending across the Brazos, Colorado, Lavaca, and Guadalupe River Basins, caused heavy rainfall over a large part of south-central Texas. The maximum recorded rain of 22.7 inches for the 2-day period June 29-30 occurred at Engle. Of this amount, 17.5 inches fell in the 12-hour period between 8 p.m. June 29, and 8 a.m. June 30. Light rains fell at a number of places on June 28, and additional light rains fell at many places within the area from July 1 to 4. During the period June 28 to July 4 more than 20 inches of rain fell over an area of 300 square miles, more than 15 inches over 1,920 square miles, and more than 10 inches over 5,100 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area experiencing the heaviest rainfall during this storm is about 35 inches. Farming is largely confined to the fertile flood plains in much of the area subjected to the record-breaking floods in June and July. Therefore these floods, coming at the height of the growing season, caused severe losses to crops. Much damage was done also to highways and railways. The city of Hallettsville suffered the greatest damage of any urban area. The Lavaca River at that place reached a stage 8 feet higher than ever known before, drowned several people, destroyed many homes, and submerged almost the entire business district. The maximum discharge there was 93,100 second-feet from a drainage area of 101 square miles. Dry Creek near Smithville produced a maximum discharge of 1,879 second-feet from an area of 1.48 square miles and a runoff of 11.3 inches in a 2-day period from a rainfall of 19.5 inches. The area in the Colorado River

  13. Nipple Discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... If the ultrasound shows a lesion within a milk duct, you may need a biopsy to confirm that it's a papilloma or to exclude a cancer. Nipple discharge is rarely a sign of breast cancer. But it might be a sign of ...

  14. Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slater, Louise J.; Bliss Singer, Michael; Kirchner, James W.

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is a major threat to lives and infrastructure, yet trends in flood hazard are poorly understood. The capacity of river channels to convey flood flows is typically assumed to be stationary, so changes in flood frequency are thought to be driven primarily by trends in streamflow. However, changes in channel capacity will also modify flood hazard, even if the flow frequency distribution does not change. We developed new methods for separately quantifying how trends in both streamflow and channel capacity have affected flood frequency at gauging sites across the United States. Using daily discharge records and manual field measurements of channel cross-sectional geometry for USGS gauging stations that have defined flood stages (water levels), we present novel methods for measuring long-term trends in channel capacity of gauged rivers, and for quantifying how they affect overbank flood frequency. We apply these methods to 401 U.S. rivers and detect measurable trends in flood hazard linked to changes in channel capacity and/or the frequency of high flows. Flood frequency is generally nonstationary across these 401 U.S. rivers, with increasing flood hazard at a statistically significant majority of sites. Changes in flood hazard driven by channel capacity are smaller, but more numerous, than those driven by streamflow, with a slight tendency to compensate for streamflow changes. Our results demonstrate that accurately quantifying changes in flood hazard requires accounting separately for trends in both streamflow and channel capacity, or using water levels directly. They also show that channel capacity trends may have unforeseen consequences for flood management and for estimating flood insurance costs. Slater, L. J., M. B. Singer, and J. W. Kirchner (2015), Hydrologic versus geomorphic drivers of trends in flood hazard, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 370-376, doi:10.1002/2014GL062482.

  15. Flood of September 1971 in southeastern Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, Leland V.; Shaw, Lewis C.

    1973-01-01

    Record-breaking floods on Sept. 13, 1971, occurred in some urbanized basins of southeastern Pennsylvania. This flooding resulted from heavy, intermittent thunderstorms on Sept. 11-13, 1971, which produced 8 to 12 inches of rainfall in the basins of Skippack, Stony, and Chester Creeks. Rain was heaviest during mid-day of the 13th. Damage to homes, businesses, and public property amounted to many millions of dollars. Twelve persons lost their lives and more than 400 families were driven from their homes. The Chester and Norristown areas were declared Flood Disaster Areas by the Federal and State Governments. Peak stages and discharges are given for 25 gaging staions and 4 miscellaneous sites. Flood profiles are shown for Chester Creek, West Branch Chester Creek, and Stony Creek.

  16. Magnitude and frequency of floods in Alabama

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkins, J. Brian

    1996-01-01

    Methods of estimating flood magnitudes for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years are described for rural streams in Alabama that are not affected by regulation or urbanization. Flood-frequency characteristics are presented for 198 gaging stations in Alabama having 10 or more years of record through September 1991, that are used in the regional analysis. Regression relations were developed using generalized least-squares regression techniques to estimate flood magnitude and frequency on ungaged streams as a function of the drainage area of a basin. Sites on gaged streams should be weighted with gaging station data that are presented in the report. Graphical relations of peak discharges to drainage areas are also presented for sites along the Alabama, Black Warrior, Cahaba, Choctawhatchee, Conecub, and Tombigbee Rivers. Equations for estimating flood magnitudes on ungaged urban streams (taken from a previous report) that use drainage area and percentage of impervious cover as independent variables also are given.

  17. Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

    2013-12-01

    Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future

  18. Floods of August and September 1971 in Maryland and Delaware

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carpenter, D.H.

    1974-01-01

    Flood discharge data are presented for 75 gaging stations and for 6 miscellaneous sites. New peaks of record occurred at 32 of the gaging stations. The maximum unit peak discharge rate recorded was 2,400 cubic fee t per second per square mile.

  19. 100 years of radionuclide metrology.

    PubMed

    Judge, S M; Arnold, D; Chauvenet, B; Collé, R; De Felice, P; García-Toraño, E; Wätjen, U

    2014-05-01

    The discipline of radionuclide metrology at national standards institutes started in 1913 with the certification by Curie, Rutherford and Meyer of the first primary standards of radium. In early years, radium was a valuable commodity and the aim of the standards was largely to facilitate trade. The focus later changed to providing standards for the new wide range of radionuclides, so that radioactivity could be used for healthcare and industrial applications while minimising the risk to patients, workers and the environment. National measurement institutes responded to the changing demands by developing new techniques for realising primary standards of radioactivity. Looking ahead, there are likely to be demands for standards for new radionuclides used in nuclear medicine, an expansion of the scope of the field into quantitative imaging to facilitate accurate patient dosimetry for nuclear medicine, and an increasing need for accurate standards for radioactive waste management and nuclear forensics.

  20. Celebrating 100 Years of Flight.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reese, Susan

    2003-01-01

    In honor of the Wright brothers' first flight, the article profiles aviation and aerospace technology programs that are training workers in aviation safety and explorations. Looks at programs from Eastern New Mexico University-Roswell, Pima Community College, and Olathe Northwest High School. (JOW)

  1. 100 Years of Reality Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimpher, Nancy L.; Wright Ron, D.

    2006-01-01

    One may have heard of reality TV, but what about reality learning? The latter is probably a term one hasn't seen much, although it is in many ways a clearer and more concise name for a concept that in 2006 marks its 100th anniversary: cooperative education, or "co-op." Co-op, a break-through idea pioneered at the University of Cincinnati by Herman…

  2. 100 years of Philips Research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Delft, Dirk

    2014-03-01

    On Thursday 23 October 1913, a Dutch newspaper published the following advertisement: Hiring: A capable young scientist with a doctorate in physics. Must be a good experimenter. Letters containing information on age, life history and references may be submitted to Philips in Eindhoven. Two days later, a candidate applied: Gilles Holst. At that time, Holst was working in Leiden as an assistant to Heike Kamerlingh Onnes, a recent Nobel Prize winner.

  3. Characterization of remarkable floods in France, a transdisciplinary approach applied on generalized floods of January 1910

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

    2014-05-01

    emphasize one flood typology or one flood dynamic (for example flash floods are often over-represented than slow dynamic floods in existing databases). Thus, the selected criteria have to introduce a general overview of flooding risk in France by integrating all typologies: storm surges, torrential floods, rising groundwater level and resulting to flood, etc. The methodology developed for the evaluation grid is inspired by several scientific works related to historical hydrology (Bradzil, 2006; Benito et al., 2004) or extreme floods classification (Kundzewics et al. 2013; Garnier E., 2005). The referenced information are mainly issued from investigations realized for the PFRA (archives, local data),from internet databases on flooding disasters, and from a complementary bibliography (some scientists such as Maurice Pardé a geographer who largely documented French floods during the 20th century). The proposed classification relies on three main axes. Each axis is associated to a set of criteria, each one related to a score (from 0.5 to 4 points), and pointing out a final remarkability score. • The flood intensity characterizing the flood's hazard level. It is composed of the submersion duration, important to valorize floods with slow dynamics as flooding from groundwater, the event peak discharge's return period, and the presence of factors increasing significantly the hazard level (dykes breaks, log jam, sediment transport…) • The flood severity focuses on economic damages, social and political repercussions, media coverage of the event, fatalities number or eventual flood warning failures. Analyzing the flood consequences is essential in order to evaluate the vulnerability of society at disaster date. • The spatial extension of the flood, which contributes complementary information to the two first axes. The evaluation grid was tested and applied on the sample of 176 remarkable events. Around twenty events (from 1856 to 2010) come out with a high remarkability rate

  4. Flooding and Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  5. Spring flood analysis using the flood-duration-frequency approach: application to the provinces of Quebec and Ontario, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javelle, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Bobée, Bernard

    2003-12-01

    Most often, flood frequency analysis describes a flood event only by its peak. However, the true flood severity is also defined by its volume and duration. This paper presents an approach allowing flood events to be considered in a more complete way: the flood-duration-frequency (QdF) approach. In a similar manner to the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis, averaged discharges are computed over different fixed durations d. For each duration a frequency distribution of maximum averaged discharges is studied. Finally, a continuous formulation is fitted, as a function of the return period T and the duration d over which discharges have been averaged. The proposed model has been tested for 169 catchments in the provinces of Quebec and Ontario, Canada. The shapes of the QdF curves enabled us to define different types of flood behaviour and to identify the corresponding geographic regions. This mapping of flood behaviour was the basis for the delineation of seven homogeneous geographical regions, containing catchments having the same hydrological behaviour as is required for regional flood frequency analysis. Copyright

  6. Floods of June 2012 in northeastern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Czuba, Christiana R.; Fallon, James D.; Kessler, Erich W.

    2012-01-01

    During June 19–20, 2012, heavy rainfall, as much as 10 inches locally reported, caused severe flooding across northeastern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions from a relatively rainy spring, with May 2012 as one of the wettest Mays on record in Duluth. The June 19–20, 2012, rainfall event set new records in Duluth, including greatest 2-day precipitation with 7.25 inches of rain. The heavy rains fell on three major watersheds: the Mississippi Headwaters; the St. Croix, which drains to the Mississippi River; and Western Lake Superior, which includes the St. Louis River and other tributaries to Lake Superior. Widespread flash and river flooding that resulted from the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of residents, and damages to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, nine counties in northeastern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas as a result of the flooding. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 13 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 35 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Flood-peak streamflows in June 2012 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.002 (0.2 percent; recurrence interval greater than 500 years) for five streamgages, and between 0.002 and 0.01 (1 percent; recurrence interval greater than 100 years) for four streamgages. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Barnum (Moose Horn River), Carlton (Otter Creek), Duluth Heights neighborhood of Duluth (Miller Creek), Fond du Lac neighborhood of Duluth (St. Louis River), Moose Lake (Moose Horn River and Moosehead Lake), and Thomson (Thomson Reservoir outflow near the St. Louis River). Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were produced for these six severely affected communities. The inundation maps were constructed in a

  7. Floods of September 2010 in Southern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellison, Christopher A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Mitton, Gregory B.; Kruse, Gregory A.

    2011-01-01

    During September 22-24, 2010, heavy rainfall ranging from 3 inches to more than 10 inches caused severe flooding across southern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions, where summer rainfall totals were as high as 20 inches, exceeding the historical average by more than 4 inches. Widespread flooding that occurred as a result of the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of hundreds of residents, and damages in excess of 64 million dollars to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, 21 counties in southern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at nine U.S. Geological Survey and three Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 27 U.S. Geological Survey and 5 Minnesota Department of Natural Resources streamgages and 5 ungaged sites. Flood-peak streamflows in 2010 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.2 percent (recurrence interval greater than 500 years) at 7 streamgages and less than 1 percent (recurrence interval greater than 100 years) at 5 streamgages and 4 ungaged sites. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Faribault along the Cannon and Straight Rivers, Owatonna along the Straight River and Maple Creek, Pine Island along the North Branch and Middle Fork Zumbro River, and Zumbro Falls along the Zumbro River. The nearby communities of Hammond, Henderson, Millville, Oronoco, Pipestone, and Rapidan also received extensive flooding and damage but were not surveyed for high-water marks. Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles for the four most severely affected communities were constructed in a geographic information system by combining high-water-mark data with the highest resolution digital elevation model data available. The flood maps and

  8. Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Juticalpa, Honduras

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

    2002-01-01

    After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Juticalpa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Juticalpa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Juticalpa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa, 1,360 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Juticalpa en El Torito, located about 2 kilometers upstream from Juticalpa. One discharge, 1,551 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 33 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 486 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 1,310 cubic meters per second. The 50-year flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Juticalpa was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the

  9. Flood of May 2006 in York County, Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, Gregory J.; Kempf, Joshua P.

    2008-01-01

    A stalled low-pressure system over coastal New England on Mother's Day weekend, May 13-15, 2006, released rainfall in excess of 15 inches. This flood (sometimes referred to as the 'Mother's Day flood') caused widespread damage to homes, businesses, roads, and structures in southern Maine. The damage to public property in York County was estimated to be $7.5 million. As a result of these damages, a presidential disaster declaration was enacted on May 25, 2006, for York County, Maine. Peak-flow recurrence intervals for eight of the nine streams studied were calculated to be greater than 500 years. The peak-flow recurrence interval of the remaining stream was calculated to be between a 100-year and a 500-year interval. This report provides a detailed description of the May 2006 flood in York County, Maine. Information is presented on peak streamflows and peak-flow recurrence intervals on nine streams, peak water-surface elevations for 80 high-water marks at 25 sites, hydrologic conditions before and after the flood, comparisons with published Flood Insurance Studies, and places the May 2006 flood in context with historical floods in York County. At sites on several streams, differences were observed between peak flows published in the Flood Insurance Studies and those calculated for this study. The differences in the peak flows from the published Flood Insurance Studies and the flows calculated for this report are within an acceptable range for flows calculated at ungaged locations, with the exception of those for the Great Works River and Merriland River. For sites on the Mousam River, Blacksmith Brook, Ogunquit River, and Cape Neddick River, water-surface elevations from Flood Insurance Studies differed with documented water-surface elevations from the 2006 flood.

  10. 7. CLOSEUP VIEW OF THE PUMP DISCHARGE CHANNEL, AND THE ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    7. CLOSEUP VIEW OF THE PUMP DISCHARGE CHANNEL, AND THE DISCHARGE WEIR OF THE FOR PUMPS NO. 2 AND 3, LOOKING NORTHEAST. THE SERVICE BRIDGE PROVIDED ACCESS TO THE LEVEE OVER TOBY CREEK. - Wyoming Valley Flood Control System, Woodward Pumping Station, East of Toby Creek crossing by Erie-Lackawanna Railroad, Edwardsville, Luzerne County, PA

  11. Floods in the Skagit River basin, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, James E.; Bodhaine, George Lawrence

    1961-01-01

    According to Indian tradition, floods of unusually great magnitude harassed the Skagit River basin about 1815 and 1856. The heights of these floods were not recorded at the time; so they are called historical floods. Since the arrival of white men about 1863, a number of large and damaging floods have been witnessed and recorded. Data concerning and verifying the early floods, including those of 1815 and 1856, were collected prior to 1923 by James E. Stewart. He talked with many of the early settlers in the valley who had listened to Indians tell about the terrible floods. Some of these settlers had referenced the maximum stages of floods they had witnessed by cutting notches at or measuring to high-water marks on trees. In order to verify flood stages Stewart spent many weeks finding and levelling to high-water marks such as drift deposits, sand layers in coves, and silt in the bark of certain types of trees. Gaging stations have been in operation at various locations on the Skagit River and its tributaries since 1909, so recorded peak stages are available at certain sites for floods occurring since that date. All peak discharge data available for both historical and recorded floods have been listed in this report. The types of floods as to winter and summer, the duration of peaks, and the effect of reservoirs are discussed. In 1899 Sterling Dam was constructed at the head of Gages Slough near Sedro Woolley. This was the beginning of major diking in the lower reaches of the Skagit River. Maps included in the report show the location of most of the dike failures that have occurred during the last 73 years and the area probably inundated by major floods. The damage resulting from certain floods is briefly discussed. The report is concluded with a brief discussion of the U.S. Geological Survey method of computing flood-frequency curves as applied to the Skagit River basin. The treatment of single-station records and a means of combining these records for expressing

  12. Probability plotting position formulas for flood records with historical information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirsch, Robert M.

    1987-12-01

    For purposes of evaluating fitted flood frequency distributions or for purposes of estimating distributions directly from plots of flood peaks versus exceedance probabilities (either by subjective or objective techniques), one needs a probability plotting position formula which can be applied to all of the flood data available: both systematic and historic floods. Some of the formulas in use are simply extensions of existing formulas (such as Hazen and Weibull) used on systematic flood records. New plotting position formulas proposed by Hirsch and Stedinger (1986) and in this paper are based on a recognition that the flood data arises from partially censored sampling of the flood record. The theoretical appropriateness, bias in probability and bias in discharge of the various plotting position formulas are considered. The methods are compared in terms of their effects on flood frequency estimation when an objective curve-fitting method of estimation is employed. Consideration is also given to the correct interpretation of the historical record length and the effect of incorrectly assuming that record length equals the time since the first known historical flood. This assumption is employed in many flood frequency studies and may result in a substantial bias in estimated design flood magnitudes.

  13. Hydrologic and geomorphic drivers of changing flood hazard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slater, L. J.; Singer, M. B.; Kirchner, J. W.

    2014-12-01

    Flooding is a major hazard to lives and infrastructure, but trends in flood hazard are poorly understood. In flood risk analysis and channel design engineering, channel capacity is generally assumed to be constant, and changes in flood frequency are assumed to be driven primarily by changes in streamflow. However, trends in channel capacity will also modify flood hazard, even if the flow frequency distribution does not change. Using daily discharge records and manual field measurements of channel cross-sectional geometry for USGS gauging stations that have defined flood stages (water levels), we present novel methods for measuring long-term trends in channel capacity of gauged rivers, and for quantifying how they affect flood frequency. We apply these methods to 401 U.S. rivers and detect measurable trends in flood hazard linked to changes in channel capacity or the frequency of high flows. We found increases in flood frequency at a statistically significant majority of sites. Trends in channel capacity were smaller, but more numerous, than those in streamflow, with a slight tendency to compensate for streamflow changes. Recognizing and quantifying the joint influence of trends in channel capacity and streamflow on flood frequency is necessary to determine changes in flood hazard accurately.

  14. Flood Risk Characterization for the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarini, G.; Smith, J. A.; Ntelekos, A. A.

    2009-04-01

    Tropical cyclones landfalling in the eastern United States pose a major risk for insured property and can lead to extensive damage through storm surge flooding, inland flooding or extreme windspeeds. Current hurricane cat-models do not include calculations of inland flooding from the outer rainfall bands of tropical cyclones but the issue is becoming increasingly important for commercial insurance risk assessment. The results of this study could be used to feed into the next generation of hurricane cat-models and assist in the calculation of damages from inland hurricane flood damage. Annual maximum peak discharge records from more than 400 stations in the eastern United States with at least 75 years of record to examine the role of landfalling tropical cyclones in controlling the upper tail of inland flood risk for the eastern United States. In addition to examining tropical cyclone inland flood risk at specific locations, the spatial extent of extreme flooding from lanfalling tropical cyclones is analyzed. Analyses of temporal trends and abrupt changes in the mean and variance of annual flood peaks are performed. Change-point analysis is performed using the non-parametric Pettitt test. Two non-parametric (Mann-Kendall and Spearman) tests and one parametric (Pearson) test are applied to detect the presence of temporal trends. Flood risk characterization centers on assessments of the spatial variation in "upper tail" properties of annual flood peak distributions. The modeling framework for flood frequency analysis is provided by the Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS).

  15. Flood of July 1-5, 1978 on the Kickapoo River, southwestern Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, Peter E.; Hannuksela, J.S.; Danchuk, W.J.

    1981-01-01

    The Kickapoo River valley in southwestern Wisconsin had a devastating flood ($10 million estimated damages) during July 1-5, 1978. The flash flooding was caused by intense storms on June 30 through July 2. Total rainfall accumulation ranged from 5.8 inches near Ontario to 9.5 inches at La Farge. The resulting flood equaled or exceeded the largest ones recorded since the 1850 's and equaled or exceeded the 100-year flood frequency at the U.S. Geological Survey 's streamflow gages at La Farge and Steuben. Elevation and delineation of the flood are shown on photo mosaics developed from black and white aerial photographs. The 100-mile reach from Wauzeka to Wilton is shown. A summary of the storm conditions causing the flood and an analysis of the rainfall totals, as prepared by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, are also included. (USGS)

  16. Development of Flood GIS Database of River Indus using RS and GIS Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddiqui, Z.; Farooq, M.; Shah, S.

    Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) are information technologies that furnish a broad range of tools to assist in preparing for the next flood and for obtaining vital information about the flood plain. This type of information is used to improve flood forecasting and preparedness, monitoring flood conditions, assess flood damage, relief efforts, flood control etc. Severe floods of varied magnitudes have occurred in the river Indus and its tributaries viz; Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej during the past three decades covering the Indus flood plain from Cheshma Barrage in the province of Punjab to downstream of Kotri Barrage in the souh of Sindh province of Pakistan. Digital mapping of different floods in the Indus Basin was carried out using both MSS and TM data of Landsat yielding flood maps. These maps depict flood extent and other relevant information in the flood plain. In order to create comprehensive GIS database, various hydrologic information such as rainfall, river discharge, canal withdrawal, embankment, breach etc. were incorporated. Flood database provide comprehensive information both in separate layer and combination of multiple layers pertaining to floods that occurred in the past three decades . GIS database on flood provides easy access to updated in-situ geographic information to planners and irrigation engineers concerned with overall river Indus operation and management system. GIS database of Indus floods can als o be used to improve the efficiency of decision making and management by collecting, organizing and integrating geographic, environmental and socio-economic spatial data and information.

  17. Pan-European catalogue of flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parajka, Juraj; Mangini, Walter; Viglione, Alberto; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Ceola, Serena

    2016-04-01

    There have been numerous extreme flood events observed in Europe in the past years. One of the way to improve our understanding about causing flood generation mechanisms is to analyse spatial and temporal variability of a large number of flood events. The aim of this study is to present a pan-European catalogue of flood events developed within the SWITCH-ON EU Project. The flood events are identified from daily discharge observations at 1315 stations listed in Global Runoff Data Centre database. The average length of discharge time-series for selected stations is 54 years. For each event, basin boundary and additional hydrological and weather characteristics are extracted. Hydrological characteristics are extracted from the pan-European HYPE model simulations. Precipitation, together with the corresponding proportions of rainfall and snowfall, snowmelt, and evapotranspiration are computed as total amounts between the event start date and event peak date. Soil moisture, soil moisture deficit, and basin accumulated snow water equivalent are computed for the event start date. Weather characteristics are derived from the weather circulation pattern catalogue developed within COST 733 Project. The results are generated in an open data access and tools framework which allows reproduction and extension of results to other regions. More information about the analysis and project are available at: http://www.water-switch-on.eu/lab.html.

  18. Regional flood-frequency relations for west-central Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seijo, M.A.; Giovannelli, R.F.; Turner, J.F.

    1979-01-01

    This report presents regional relations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on streams in west-central Florida. Flood prediction equations derived cover 20, 5-, 25-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals. Annual floods for three geographic areas of west-central Florida were found to relate significantly to basin characteristics. Basin characteristics include drainage area, soils index, slope, and lake area. The average standard error of estimate for regional flood relations ranged from 38.4 to 52.1 percent with a mean of 43.5 percent. The average multiple correlation coefficient if 0.94. Regional relations apply to gaged and ungaged sites whose drainage areas are greater than 10 but less than 2,500 square miles. Tables of maximum known floods for 64 streamflow stations used in the analysis are included. Tables comparing station, weighted, and regional flood-peak discharges are also included. (Kosco-USGS)

  19. Hysterectomy - vaginal - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    Vaginal hysterectomy - discharge; Laparoscopically assisted vaginal hysterectomy - discharge; LAVH - discharge ... you were in the hospital, you had a vaginal hysterectomy. Your surgeon made a cut in your ...

  20. Tubal ligation - discharge

    MedlinePlus

    ... discharge; Tube tying - discharge; Tying the tubes - discharge; Contraception - tubal ... chap 23. Jensen JT, Mishell DR. Family planning: contraception, sterilization, and pregnancy termination. In: Lentz GM, Lobo ...

  1. Over 100 years of environmental change recorded by foraminifers and sediments in a large Gulf of Mexico estuary, Mobile Bay, AL, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Osterman, Lisa E.; Smith, Christopher G.

    2012-01-01

    The marine microfauna of Mobile Bay has been profoundly influenced by the development and expansion of the primary shipping channel over the last ˜100 years. Foraminifers and sediments from seven box cores with excess lead-210 chronology document that channel dredging and spoil disposal have altered circulation, reduced estuarine mixing, changed sedimentation patterns, and caused a faunal turnover within the bay. Beginning in the late 1800s, changes in estuarine mixing allowed for greater low-pH freshwater influence in the bay, and ultimately began environmental changes that resulted in the loss of calcareous foraminifers. By the early 1900s, box cores throughout Mobile Bay record a ˜ 100-year trend of increasing calcareous test dissolution that continues to the present. Since the completion of the current shipping channel in the 1950s, restricted tidal flushing and increased terrestrial organic matter, documented by carbon-to-nitrogen ratios, stimulated an increase in agglutinated foraminiferal densities. However, in deeper areas of the bay, hypoxic water has negatively impacted the marine microfauna. Comparisons of the present-day foraminiferal assemblage with foraminifers collected in the early 1970s indicate that the continued biologic loss of calcareous foraminifers in the bay has allowed the introduction of a new agglutinated foraminiferal species into the bay.

  2. Effective discharge analysis of ecological processes in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Doyle, M.W.; Stanley, E.H.; Strayer, D.L.; Jacobson, R.B.; Schmidt, J.C.

    2005-01-01

    [1] Discharge is a master variable that controls many processes in stream ecosystems. However, there is uncertainty of which discharges are most important for driving particular ecological processes and thus how flow regime may influence entire stream ecosystems. Here the analytical method of effective discharge from fluvial geomorphology is used to analyze the interaction between frequency and magnitude of discharge events that drive organic matter transport, algal growth, nutrient retention, macroinvertebrate disturbance, and habitat availability. We quantify the ecological effective discharge using a synthesis of previously published studies and modeling from a range of study sites. An analytical expression is then developed for a particular case of ecological effective discharge and is used to explore how effective discharge varies within variable hydrologic regimes. Our results suggest that a range of discharges is important for different ecological processes in an individual stream. Discharges are not equally important; instead, effective discharge values exist that correspond to near modal flows and moderate floods for the variable sets examined. We suggest four types of ecological response to discharge variability: discharge as a transport mechanism, regulator of habitat, process modulator, and disturbance. Effective discharge analysis will perform well when there is a unique, essentially instantaneous relationship between discharge and an ecological process and poorly when effects of discharge are delayed or confounded by legacy effects. Despite some limitations the conceptual and analytical utility of the effective discharge analysis allows exploring general questions about how hydrologic variability influences various ecological processes in streams. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.

    2009-01-01

    Up to 8.5 inches of rain fell from April 15 through 18, 2007, in southern Maine. The rain - in combination with up to an inch of water from snowmelt - resulted in extensive flooding. York County, Maine, was declared a presidential disaster area following the event. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), determined peak streamflows and recurrence intervals at 24 locations and peak water-surface elevations at 63 sites following the April 2007 flood. Peak streamflows were determined with data from continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations where available and through hydraulic models where station data were not available. The flood resulted in peak streamflows with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years throughout most of York County, and recurrence intervals up to 50 years in Cumberland County. Peak flows for selected recurrence intervals varied from less than 10 percent to greater than 100 percent different than those in the current FEMA flood-insurance studies due to additional data or newer regression equations. Water-surface elevations observed during the April 2007 flood were bracketed by elevation profiles in FEMA flood-insurance studies with the same recurrence intervals as the recurrence intervals bracketing the observed peak streamflows at seven sites, with higher elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at six sites, and with lower elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at one site. The April 2007 flood resulted in higher peak flows and water-surface elevations than the flood of May 2006 in coastal locations in York County, and lower peak flows and water-surface elevations than the May 2006 flood further from the coast and in Cumberland County. The Mousam River watershed with over 13 dams and reservoirs was severely impacted by both events. Analyses indicate that the April 2007 peak streamflows in the Mousam River watershed

  4. Catastrophic flooding from an orographic thunderstorm in the central Appalachians

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hicks, Naomi S.; Smith, James A.; Miller, Andrew J.; Nelson, Peter A.

    2005-12-01

    An orographic thunderstorm system in Pendleton County, West Virginia, produced 125-150 mm of rainfall in less than 1 hour on 9 August 2003. Rainfall and fluvial impacts were concentrated in the ungauged 2.1 km2 Saul's Run watershed. Despite the short duration of the event the flood produced significant fluvial impacts and abrupt changes in the extent of incision and channel widening. Hydrometeorological analyses of the storm are based on WSR-88D radar reflectivity observations and rain gauge observations. The small multicell thunderstorms that produced the Saul's Run flood were not markedly different from other storms in the central Appalachian region on 9 August 2003. Detailed surveys of high watermarks and channel/floodplain geometry are used for hydraulic analyses of the Saul's Run flood, including estimation of peak discharge at four locations. Peak discharge estimates at the 1 km2 scale cluster around 18 m3 s-1, placing this event on the flood envelope curve for the mid-Atlantic region. Observed rainfall, estimated peak discharge, and observer notes on timing of peak discharge are used along with a distributed hydrologic model to reconstruct hydrographs at multiple locations. Hydrologic modeling indicates that land use effects may have significantly influenced extreme flood response in Saul's Run. The wide range of fluvial impacts is consistent with patterns of boundary shear stress and unit stream power derived from a simulation of the Saul's Run flood using a 2-D depth-averaged hydraulic model.

  5. Can atmospheric reanalysis datasets be used to reproduce flood characteristics?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Stampoulis, D.

    2014-12-01

    Floods are one of the costliest natural disasters and the ability to understand their characteristics and their interactions with population, land cover and climate changes is of paramount importance. In order to accurately reproduce flood characteristics such as water inundation and heights both in the river channels and floodplains, hydrodynamic models are required. Most of these models operate at very high resolutions and are computationally very expensive, making their application over large areas very difficult. However, a need exists for such models to be applied at regional to global scales so that the effects of climate change with regards to flood risk can be examined. We use the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to simulate a 40-year history of flood characteristics at the continental scale, particularly over Australia. LISFLOOD-FP is a 2-D hydrodynamic model that solves the approximate Saint-Venant equations at large scales (on the order of 1 km) using a sub-grid representation of the river channel. This implementation is part of an effort towards a global 1-km flood modeling framework that will allow the reconstruction of a long-term flood climatology. The components of this framework include a hydrologic model (the widely-used Variable Infiltration Capacity model) and a meteorological dataset that forces it. In order to extend the simulated flood climatology to 50-100 years in a consistent manner, reanalysis datasets have to be used. The objective of this study is the evaluation of multiple atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA, NCEP, MERRA, JRA) as inputs to the VIC/LISFLOOD-FP model. Comparisons of the simulated flood characteristics are made with both satellite observations of inundation and a benchmark simulation of LISFLOOD-FP being forced by observed flows. Finally, the implications of the availability of a global flood modeling framework for producing flood hazard maps and disseminating disaster information are discussed.

  6. Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

    2014-05-01

    The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

  7. Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winters, Karl E.; Baldys, Stanley

    2011-01-01

    In cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed channel changes on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, and modeled historical floods to investigate possible causes and potential mitigation alternatives to higher flood stages in recent (2007 and 2008) floods. Extreme flooding occurred on the Wichita River on June 30, 2007, inundating 167 homes in Wichita Falls. Although a record flood stage was reached in June 2007, the peak discharge was much less than some historical floods at Wichita Falls. Streamflow and stage data from two gages on the Wichita River and one on Holliday Creek were used to assess the interaction of the two streams. Changes in the Wichita River channel were evaluated using historical aerial and ground photography, comparison of recent and historical cross sections, and comparison of channel roughness coefficients with those from earlier studies. The floods of 2007 and 2008 were modeled using a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibrated channel roughness was larger for the 2007 flood compared to the 2008 flood, and the 2007 flood peaked about 4 feet higher than the 2008 flood. Calibration of the 1941 flood yielded a channel roughness coefficient (Manning's n) of 0.030, which represents a fairly clean natural channel. The step-backwater model was also used to evaluate the following potential mitigation alternatives: (1) increasing the capacity of the bypass channel near River Road in Wichita Falls, Texas; (2) removal of obstructions near the Scott Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard bridges in Wichita Falls, Texas; (3) widening of aggraded channel banks in the reach between Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard and River Road; and (4) reducing channel bank and overbank roughness. Reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.1 foot to as much as 3.0 feet for the different mitigation alternatives. The effects of implementing a combination of different flood-mitigation alternatives were

  8. Streamflow model of Wisconsin River for estimating flood frequency and volume

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krug, William R.; House, Leo B.

    1980-01-01

    The 100-year flood peak at Wisconsin Dells, computed from the simulated, regulated streamflow data for the period 1915-76, is 82,000 cubic feet per second, including the effects of all the reservoirs in the river system, as they are currently operated. It also includes the effects of Lakes Du Bay, Petenwell, and Castle Rock which are significant for spring floods but are insignificant for summer or fall floods because they are normally maintained nearly full in the summer and fall and have very little storage for floodwaters. (USGS)

  9. Simulation of flood hydrographs for Georgia streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Inman, Ernest J.

    1987-01-01

    Flood hydrographs are needed for the design of many highway drainage structures and embankments. A method for simulating these flood hydrographs at ungaged sites in Georgia is presented in this report. The O'Donnell method was used to compute unit hydrographs and lagtimes for 355 floods at 80 gaging stations. An average unit hydrograph and an average lagtime were computed for each station. These average unit hydrographs were transformed to unit hydrographs having durations of one-fourth, one-third, one-half, and three-fourths lagtime, then reduced to dimensionless terms by dividing the time by lagtime and the discharge by peak discharge. Hydrographs were simulated for these 355 floods and their widths were compared with the widths of the observed hydrographs at 50 and 75 percent of peak flow. The dimensionless hydrograph based on one-half lagtime duration provided the best fit of the observed data. Multiple regression analysis was then used to define relations between lagtime and certain physical basin characteristics; of these characteristics, drainage area and slope were found to be significant for the rural-stream equations and drainage area, slope, and impervious area were found to be significant for the Atlanta urban-stream equation. A hydrograph can be simulated from the dimensionless hydrograph, the peak discharge of a specific recurrence interval, and the lagtime obtained from regression equations for any site in Georgia having a drainage area of less than 500 square miles. For simulating hydrographs at sites having basins larger than 500 square miles, the U.S. Geological Survey computer model CONROUT can be used. This model routes streamflow from an upstream channel location to a user-defined location downstream. The product of CONROUT is a simulated discharge hydrograph for the downstream site that has a peak discharge of a specific recurrence interval.

  10. Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodge, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.

    1995-01-01

    Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and

  11. Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarrett, Robert D.

    1990-06-01

    Defining the cause and spatial characteristics of floods may be difficult because of limited streamflow and precipitation data. New paleohydrologic techniques that incorporate information from geomorphic, sedimentologic, and botanic studies provide important supplemental information to define homogeneous hydrologic regions. These techniques also help to define the spatial structure of rainstorms and floods and improve regional flood-frequency estimates. The occurrence and the non-occurrence of paleohydrologic evidence of floods, such as flood bars, alluvial fans, and tree scars, provide valuable hydrologic information. The paleohydrologic research to define the spatial characteristics of floods improves the understanding of flood hydrometeorology. This research was used to define the areal extent and contributing drainage area of flash floods in Colorado. Also, paleohydrologic evidence was used to define the spatial boundaries for the Colorado foothills region in terms of the meteorologic cause of flooding and elevation. In general, above 2300 m, peak flows are caused by snowmelt. Below 2300 m, peak flows primarily are caused by rainfall. The foothills region has an upper elevation limit of about 2300 m and a lower elevation limit of about 1500 m. Regional flood-frequency estimates that incorporate the paleohydrologic information indicate that the Big Thompson River flash flood of 1976 had a recurrence interval of approximately 10,000 years. This contrasts markedly with 100 to 300 years determined by using conventional hydrologic analyses. Flood-discharge estimates based on rainfall-runoff methods in the foothills of Colorado result in larger values than those estimated with regional flood-frequency relations, which are based on long-term streamflow data. Preliminary hydrologic and paleohydrologic research indicates that intense rainfall does not occur at higher elevations in other Rocky Mountain states and that the highest elevations for rainfall-producing floods

  12. Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jarrett, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    Defining the cause and spatial characteristics of floods may be difficult because of limited streamflow and precipitation data. New paleohydrologic techniques that incorporate information from geomorphic, sedimentologic, and botanic studies provide important supplemental information to define homogeneous hydrologic regions. These techniques also help to define the spatial structure of rainstorms and floods and improve regional flood-frequency estimates. The occurrence and the non-occurrence of paleohydrologic evidence of floods, such as flood bars, alluvial fans, and tree scars, provide valuable hydrologic information. The paleohydrologic research to define the spatial characteristics of floods improves the understanding of flood hydrometeorology. This research was used to define the areal extent and contributing drainage area of flash floods in Colorado. Also, paleohydrologic evidence was used to define the spatial boundaries for the Colorado foothills region in terms of the meteorologic cause of flooding and elevation. In general, above 2300 m, peak flows are caused by snowmelt. Below 2300 m, peak flows primarily are caused by rainfall. The foothills region has an upper elevation limit of about 2300 m and a lower elevation limit of about 1500 m. Regional flood-frequency estimates that incorporate the paleohydrologic information indicate that the Big Thompson River flash flood of 1976 had a recurrence interval of approximately 10,000 years. This contrasts markedly with 100 to 300 years determined by using conventional hydrologic analyses. Flood-discharge estimates based on rainfall-runoff methods in the foothills of Colorado result in larger values than those estimated with regional flood-frequency relations, which are based on long-term streamflow data. Preliminary hydrologic and paleohydrologic research indicates that intense rainfall does not occur at higher elevations in other Rocky Mountain states and that the highest elevations for rainfall-producing floods

  13. Necessity of Flood Early Warning Systems in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurian, C.; Natesan, U.; Durga Rao, K. H. V.

    2014-12-01

    India is one of the highly flood prone countries in the world. National flood commission has reported that 400,000 km² of geographical area is prone to floods, constituting to twelve percent of the country's geographical area. Despite the reoccurrences of floods, India still does not have a proper flood warning system. Probably this can be attributed to the lack of trained personnel in using advanced techniques. Frequent flood hazards results in damage to livelihood, infrastructure and public utilities. India has a potential to develop an early warning system since it is one of the few countries where satellite based inputs are regularly used for monitoring and mitigating floods. However, modeling of flood extent is difficult due to the complexity of hydraulic and hydrologic processes during flood events. It has been reported that numerical methods of simulations can be effectively used to simulate the processes correctly. Progress in computational resources, data collection and development of several numerical codes has enhanced the use of hydrodynamic modeling approaches to simulate the flood extent in the floodplains. In this study an attempt is made to simulate the flood in one of the sub basins of Godavari River in India using hydrodynamic modeling techniques. The modeling environment includes MIKE software, which simulates the water depth at every grid cell of the study area. The runoff contribution from the catchment was calculated using Nebdor Afstromnings model. With the hydrodynamic modeling approach, accuracy in discharge and water level computations are improved compared to the conventional methods. The results of the study are proming to develop effective flood management plans in the basin. Similar studies could be taken up in other flood prone areas of the country for continuous modernisation of flood forecasting techniques, early warning systems and strengthening decision support systems, which will help the policy makers in developing management

  14. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the ass