Science.gov

Sample records for 100-year flood event

  1. Combining Neural Networks with Existing Methods to Estimate 1 in 100-Year Flood Event Magnitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newson, A.; See, L.

    2005-12-01

    Over the last fifteen years artificial neural networks (ANN) have been shown to be advantageous for the solution of many hydrological modelling problems. The use of ANNs for flood magnitude estimation in ungauged catchments, however, is a relatively new and under researched area. In this paper ANNs are used to make estimates of the magnitude of the 100-year flood event (Q100) for a number of ungauged catchments. The data used in this study were provided by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH), which contains information on catchments across the UK. Sixteen catchment descriptors for 719 catchments were used to train an ANN, which was split into a training, validation and test data set. The goodness-of-fit statistics on the test data set indicated good model performance, with an r-squared value of 0.8 and a coefficient of efficiency of 79 percent. Data for twelve ungauged catchments were then put through the trained ANN to produce estimates of Q100. Two other accepted methodologies were also employed: the FEH statistical method and the FSR (Flood Studies Report) design storm technique, both of which are used to produce flood frequency estimates. The advantage of developing an ANN model is that it provides a third figure to aid a hydrologist in making an accurate estimate. For six of the twelve catchments, there was a relatively low spread between estimates. In these instances, an estimate of Q100 could be made with a fair degree of certainty. Of the remaining six catchments, three had areas greater than 1000km2, which means the FSR design storm estimate cannot be used. Armed with the ANN model and the FEH statistical method the hydrologist still has two possible estimates to consider. For these three catchments, the estimates were also fairly similar, providing additional confidence to the estimation. In summary, the findings of this study have shown that an accurate estimation of Q100 can be made using the catchment descriptors of

  2. Caspian tern reproduction in the Saginaw Bay ecosystem following a 100-year flood event

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ludwig, James P.; Auman, Heidi J.; Kurita, Hiroko; Ludwig, Matthew E.; Campbell, Loraine M.; Giesy, John P.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Jones, Paul; Yamashita, Nobu; Tanabe, Shinsuke; Tatsukawa, Ryo

    1993-01-01

    In the 2 years that followed the 100-year flood incident of September 1986 in the Saginaw River/Bay ecosystem, the reproduction of Caspian terns collapsed and then slowly recovered. Egg viability and fledging rates of hatched chicks were drastically depressed in 1987 and 1988. Eggs from clutches laid later in the year were less viable and chicks hatched from these eggs displayed wasting syndromes and deformities. The post-flood rate of deformities in hatched chicks in 1987–1989 was 163-fold greater than background rates for this population in 1962–1967. Embryonic abnormalities and deformities were found in many embryos recovered from dead eggs. Recently published data on planar toxic chemicals from samples of forage fish, tern eggs, and chicks from water birds nesting in the bay implicate planar dioxin-like PCBs 77 and 126 as the sources of these severe bioeffects. The planar PCB congeners accounted for >98% of TCDD-EQ toxicity in the tern eggs, and several were present at levels near or at the LD95 levels each for chicken eggs. Actual TCDD was about 1% of the TCDD-EQ toxicity. Very rapid buildup rates of PCBs were measured in tern eggs. The calculated toxic potency of PCB recovered from tern eggs was about 15-fold greater than parent aroclor 1242 PCB. Smaller tern species were projected to be much more at risk than the larger Caspian tern due to greater standard metabolic rates. The study supports the view that sediment disturbance and sediment banks of toxic chemicals are major threats to upper trophic level fish-eating species.

  3. 100-Year Flood-It's All About Chance

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holmes, Jr., Robert R.; Dinicola, Karen

    2010-01-01

    In the 1960's, the United States government decided to use the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flood as the basis for the National Flood Insurance Program. The 1-percent AEP flood was thought to be a fair balance between protecting the public and overly stringent regulation. Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the '100-year flood'. The term '100-year flood' is part of the national lexicon, but is often a source of confusion by those not familiar with flood science and statistics. This poster is an attempt to explain the concept, probabilistic nature, and inherent uncertainties of the '100-year flood' to the layman.

  4. Technique for estimating depth of 100-year floods in Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamble, Charles R.; Lewis, James G.

    1977-01-01

    Preface: A method is presented for estimating the depth of the loo-year flood in four hydrologic areas in Tennessee. Depths at 151 gaging stations on streams that were not significantly affected by man made changes were related to basin characteristics by multiple regression techniques. Equations derived from the analysis can be used to estimate the depth of the loo-year flood if the size of the drainage basin is known.

  5. Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Livingston County, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Southard, Rodney E.; Richards, Joseph M.

    2002-01-01

    The primary criteria for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to existing and proposed development in flood-hazard areas. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence-interval flood for use in the management and regulation of 18 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Livingston County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow models HEC-RAS and Water-Surface PROfile (WSPRO) were used to compute base (100-year) flood elevations for 18 Zone A sites. The HEC-RAS model was used at BFE sites 1 to 6, 9, 10, and 15 to 18. The WSPRO model was used at BFE sites 7, 8, and 11 to 14. The 18 sites are all located in Livingston County, Missouri, at U.S., State, or County road crossings, and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on Shoal Creek at Dawn and Shoal Creek Drainage Ditch near Dawn are 701.0, 701.0, and 696.5 feet, respectively. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4 and 5 on Indian Branch near Sampsel and a tributary to Indian Branch near Sampsel are 711.7 and 755.4 feet, respectively. Site BFE 6 is located on Honey Creek near Farmersville and the base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 730.8 feet. One site (BFE 7) is located on No Creek near Farmersville. The base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 731.3 feet. Site BFE 8 is located on Crooked Creek near Chillicothe and the base (100-year) elevation is 716.4 feet. One site (BFE 9) is located on a tributary to Coon Creek at Chillicothe. The base (100-year) flood elevation for this site is 734.9 feet. Two sites (BFE 10 and 11) are located on Blackwell Branch at Chillicothe. The base (100-year) flood elevation for BFE 10 is 738.9 feet and for BFE 11 is 701

  6. Base (100-year) flood elevations for selected sites in Marion County, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Southard, Rodney E.; Wilson, Gary L.

    1998-01-01

    The primary requirement for community participation in the National Flood Insurance Program is the adoption and enforcement of floodplain management requirements that minimize the potential for flood damages to new construction and avoid aggravating existing flooding conditions. This report provides base flood elevations (BFE) for a 100-year recurrence flood for use in the management and regulation of 14 flood-hazard areas designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency as approximate Zone A areas in Marion County, Missouri. The one-dimensional surface-water flow model, HEC-RAS, was used to compute the base (100-year) flood elevations for the 14 Zone A sites. The 14 sites were located at U.S., State, or County road crossings and the base flood elevation was determined at the upstream side of each crossing. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 1, 2, and 3 on the South Fork North River near Monroe City, Missouri, are 627.7, 579.2, and 545.9 feet above sea level. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 4, 5, 6, and 7 on the main stem of the North River near or at Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri, are 560.5, 539.7, 504.2, and 494.4 feet above sea level. BFE 8 is located on Big Branch near Philadelphia, a tributary to the North River, and the base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 530.5 feet above sea level. One site (BFE 9) is located on the South River near Monroe City, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevation at this site is 619.1 feet above sea level. Site BFE 10 is located on Bear Creek near Hannibal, Missouri, and the base (100-year) elevation is 565.5 feet above sea level. The four remaining sites (BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14) are located on the South Fabius River near Philadelphia and Palmyra, Missouri. The base (100-year) flood elevations for BFE 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 591.2, 578.4, 538.7, and 506.9 feet above sea level.

  7. Discharge, gage height, and elevation of 100-year floods in the Hudson River basin, New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archer, Roger J.

    1978-01-01

    The flood discharge that may be expected to be equaled or exceeded on the average of once in 100 years (100-year flood) was computed by the log-Pearson Type-III frequency relation for 72 stations in the Hudson River basin. These discharges and, where available, their corresponding gage height and elevation above mean sea level are presented in tabular form. A short explanation of computation methods is included. The data are to be used as part of a federally funded study of the water resources and related land resources of the Hudson River basin. (Woodard-USGS)

  8. Flood boundaries and water-surface profile for the computed 100-year flood, Swift Creek at Afton, Wyoming, 1986

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rankl, James G.; Wallace, Joe C.

    1989-01-01

    Flood flows on Swift Creek near Afton, Wyoming, were analyzed. Peak discharge with an average recurrence interval of 100 years was computed and used to determine the flood boundaries and water surface profile in the study reach. The study was done in cooperation with Lincoln County and the Town of Afton to determine the extent of flooding in the Town of Afton from a 100-year flood on Swift Creek. The reach of Swift Creek considered in the analysis extends upstream from the culvert at Allred County Road No. 12-135 to the US Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station located in the Bridger National Forest , a distance of 3.2 miles. Boundaries of the 100-year flood are delineated on a map using the computed elevation of the flood at each cross section, survey data, and a 1983 aerial photograph. The computed water surface elevation for the 100-year flood was plotted at each cross section, then the lateral extent of the flood was transferred to the flood map. Boundaries between cross sections were sketched using information taken from the aerial photograph. Areas that are inundated, but not part of the active flow, are designated on the cross sections. (Lantz-PTT)

  9. Areas subject to inundation by the 100-year flood in Avra Valley, Pima County, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roeske, R.H.

    1978-01-01

    Avra Valley in Pima County, Arizona, is sparsely populated and is used mainly for agriculture and cattle grazing; however, its proximity to Tucson makes it desirable for urban development. Administrators and planners concerned with future land development may use the map report to determine the approximate areas that are subject to inundation by the 100-year flood. Avra Valley is drained mainly by Brawley Wash; Blanco Wash drains the west side of the valley. Most of the natural drainage system consists of small braided channels bordered by narrow bands of dense vegetation, which cause floodwater to spread over wide areas of shallow depths. During the 100-year flood, the areas inundated by Brawley and Blanco Washes may join in several places. (Woodard-USGS)

  10. Water-surface profile and flood boundaries for the computed 100-year flood, Lame Deer Creek, Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Omang, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrologic and hydraulic evaluations of Lame Deer Creek were made to determine the magnitude of the 100-year flood and the extent of flooding that would occur as the result of this flood. SixtY-six cross sections were Surveyed and 25 cross sections were synthesized along a 9.5-mile reach of Lame Deer Creek. Data from the surveys were used to calculate the water-surface elevation at each cross section using a computer program (WSPRO) developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The water-surface profile of the computed 100-year flood elevations was then drawn. The profile shows the streambed elevation and the location of the bridge, culverts, and cross sections. The computed 100-year flood elevation at each cross section was used to delineate the width of the flood plain at that section. Flood boundaries between cross sections were interpolated using contour lines on topographic maps.

  11. Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans’ interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofia, G.; Roder, G.; Dalla Fontana, G.; Tarolli, P.

    2017-01-01

    Raising interest in the interaction between humans and climate drivers to understand the past and current development of floods in urbanised landscapes is of great importance. This study presents a regional screening of land-use, rainfall regime and flood dynamics in north-eastern Italy, covering the timeframe 1900–2010. This analysis suggests that, statistically, both climate and land-use have been contributing to a significant increase of the contribution of short duration floods to the increase in the number of flooded locations. The analysis also suggests that interaction arises, determining land-use dynamics to couple with climatic changes influencing the flood aggressiveness simultaneously. Given that it is not possible to control the climatic trend, an effective disaster management clearly needs an integrated approach to land planning and supervision. This research shows that land management and planning should include the investigation of the location of the past and future social and economic drivers for development, as well as past and current climatic trends.

  12. Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans’ interaction

    PubMed Central

    Sofia, G.; Roder, G.; Dalla Fontana, G.; Tarolli, P.

    2017-01-01

    Raising interest in the interaction between humans and climate drivers to understand the past and current development of floods in urbanised landscapes is of great importance. This study presents a regional screening of land-use, rainfall regime and flood dynamics in north-eastern Italy, covering the timeframe 1900–2010. This analysis suggests that, statistically, both climate and land-use have been contributing to a significant increase of the contribution of short duration floods to the increase in the number of flooded locations. The analysis also suggests that interaction arises, determining land-use dynamics to couple with climatic changes influencing the flood aggressiveness simultaneously. Given that it is not possible to control the climatic trend, an effective disaster management clearly needs an integrated approach to land planning and supervision. This research shows that land management and planning should include the investigation of the location of the past and future social and economic drivers for development, as well as past and current climatic trends. PMID:28079147

  13. Determination of the 100-year flood plain on Upper Three Runs and selected tributaries, and the Savannah River at the Savannah River site, South Carolina, 1995

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lanier, T.H.

    1996-01-01

    The 100-year flood plain was determined for Upper Three Runs, its tributaries, and the part of the Savannah River that borders the Savannah River Site. The results are provided in tabular and graphical formats. The 100-year flood-plain maps and flood profiles provide water-resource managers of the Savannah River Site with a technical basis for making flood-plain management decisions that could minimize future flood problems and provide a basis for designing and constructing drainage structures along roadways. A hydrologic analysis was made to estimate the 100-year recurrence- interval flow for Upper Three Runs and its tributaries. The analysis showed that the well-drained, sandy soils in the head waters of Upper Three Runs reduce the high flows in the stream; therefore, the South Carolina upper Coastal Plain regional-rural-regression equation does not apply for Upper Three Runs. Conse- quently, a relation was established for 100-year recurrence-interval flow and drainage area using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on Upper Three Runs. This relation was used to compute 100-year recurrence-interval flows at selected points along the stream. The regional regression equations were applicable for the tributaries to Upper Three Runs, because the soil types in the drainage basins of the tributaries resemble those normally occurring in upper Coastal Plain basins. This was verified by analysis of the flood-frequency data collected from U.S. Geological Survey gaging station 02197342 on Fourmile Branch. Cross sections were surveyed throughout each reach, and other pertinent data such as flow resistance and land-use were col- lected. The surveyed cross sections and computed 100-year recurrence-interval flows were used in a step-backwater model to compute the 100-year flood profile for Upper Three Runs and its tributaries. The profiles were used to delineate the 100-year flood plain on topographic maps. The Savannah River forms the southwestern border

  14. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  15. Flow and sediment processes in a cutoff meander of the Danube Delta during 100-year recurrent flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jugaru Tiron, L.; Le Coz, J.; Provansal, M.; Dutu, F.

    2009-04-01

    River training operations, such as meander cutoff, initiated for navigational purposes often lead to dramatic changes in the streamwise profiles (Hooke, 1986, Kesel, 2003; Kiss et al., 2007). Meander correction affects both the hydraulic and morphodynamical behavior of the modified branches that sedimentation occurs in time, while newly built canals usually experience degradation (Jugaru et. al, 2006). This study reports and analyzes new data on the hydrological and sedimentary processes at work during a morphogenic flood in a large modified meander (the Mahmudia meander) of the St. George branch, the southern branch of the Danube Delta. The 100-year recurrent flood that occurred in 2006 offered an exceptional opportunity for scanning different cross sections of the Mahmudia meander system by means of the emerging Doppler profiler (aDcp) technology in order to analyze the impact on sedimentation and dynamic processes in the study area. The Mahmudia study site corresponds to a vast natural meander which was cut off in 1984-1988 by an artificial canal opened to shipping. The meander correction accelerated fluxes through the artificial canal and dramatically enhanced deposition in the former meander. After his formation, the cutoff meander acted as sediment storage locations, essentially removing channel and point bar sediments from the active sediment budget of the main channel (Popa, 1997). During the one-hundred-year recurrent flood in April 2006, bathymetry, flow velocity and discharge data were acquired across several sections of both natural and artificial channels with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp Workhorse Sentinel 600 kHz, Teledyne RDI) in order to investigate the distribution of the flow and sediment and his impact on sedimentation in a channelized reach and its adjacent cutoff. The contrasting hydro-sedimentary processes at work in both channels and bifurcation/confluence nodal points are analyzed from the measured flux distribution

  16. The History of Parenting Practices: An Overview! Events, Policies and Theories That Have Influenced Parenting Practices over the Last 100 Years. [Videotape and Worksheets].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    1999

    Noting that parenting is a learned experience and that the source of information on parenting has changed considerably over the last 100 years, this videotape examines the history of parent education over the past 100 years, highlighting events influencing family life, policies and legislation to assist families, and parenting theories for each…

  17. CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) flood hazard projections: Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange counties

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; O'Neill, Andrea; Herdman, Liv

    2015-01-01

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Phase I data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the Mexican Border to Pt. Conception for a 100-year storm scenario. Data are complete for the information presented but are considered preliminary; changes may be reflected in the full data release (Phase II) in summer 2016.

  18. Flood basalts and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1993-01-01

    The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

  19. After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

    2015-04-01

    In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

  20. City-scale accessibility of emergency responders operating during flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Pattison, Ian; Wilby, Robert; Bosher, Lee; Patel, Ramila; Thompson, Philip; Trowell, Keith; Draycon, Julia; Halse, Martin; Yang, Lili; Ryley, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Emergency responders often have to operate and respond to emergency situations during dynamic weather conditions, including floods. This paper demonstrates a novel method using existing tools and datasets to evaluate emergency responder accessibility during flood events within the city of Leicester, UK. Accessibility was quantified using the 8 and 10 min legislative targets for emergency provision for the ambulance and fire and rescue services respectively under "normal" no-flood conditions, as well as flood scenarios of various magnitudes (1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year recurrence intervals), with both surface water and fluvial flood conditions considered. Flood restrictions were processed based on previous hydrodynamic inundation modelling undertaken and inputted into a Network Analysis framework as restrictions for surface water and fluvial flood events. Surface water flooding was shown to cause more disruption to emergency responders operating within the city due to its widespread and spatially distributed footprint when compared to fluvial flood events of comparable magnitude. Fire and rescue 10 min accessibility was shown to decrease from 100, 66.5, 39.8 and 26.2 % under the no-flood, 1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year surface water flood scenarios respectively. Furthermore, total inaccessibility was shown to increase with flood magnitude from 6.0 % under the 1 in 20-year scenario to 31.0 % under the 1 in 100-year flood scenario. Additionally, the evolution of emergency service accessibility throughout a surface water flood event is outlined, demonstrating the rapid impact on emergency service accessibility within the first 15 min of the surface water flood event, with a reduction in service coverage and overlap being observed for the ambulance service during a 1 in 100-year flood event. The study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during emergency response to flood events at the city

  1. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is dynamic and influenced by many processes related to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood damage increased significantly over the past decades, however, resulting overall economic loss per event is an aggregated indicator and it is difficult to attribute causes to this increasing trend. Much has been learned about damaging processes during floods at the micro-scale, e.g. building level. However, little is known about the main factors determining the amount of flood damage on event level. Thus, we analyse and compare paired flood events, i.e. consecutive, similar damaging floods that occurred in the same area. In analogy to 'Paired catchment studies' - a well-established method in hydrology to understand how changes in land use affect streamflow - we will investigate how and why resulting flood damage in a region differed between the first and second consecutive flood events. One example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number of resulting dyke breaches. Additionally, exposure hotspots like the city of Dresden at the Elbe river as well as some smaller municipalities at the river Mulde (e.g. Grimma, Eilenburg, Bitterfeld, Dessau) were severely impacted. However, affected parties and authorities learned from the extreme flood in 2002, and many governmental flood risk programs and initiatives were launched. Considerable improvements since 2002 occurred on many levels that deal with flood risk reduction and disaster response, in particular in 1) increased flood prevention by improved spatial planning, 2) an increased number of property-level mitigation measures, 3) more effective early warning and improved coordination of disaster response and 4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defence systems and their

  2. Flash Flooding Events in South Central Texas.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-08-01

    I AD-ALI 977 AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFa OH F/G 4/2 FLASH FLOODING EVENTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CU) N AU 82 T W UTLEY UNCLASSIFIED...COVERED Flash Flooding Events in South Central Texas THESIS/ESeAMAN S. PERFORMING ORG. REPORI NUMBER 7. AUTHOR(*) S. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(s) Tom...and to flash flooding events which occurred in 1981 they proved to be excellent predi’ctors. When compared to the 1981 National Weather Service

  3. Pan-European catalogue of flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parajka, Juraj; Mangini, Walter; Viglione, Alberto; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Ceola, Serena

    2016-04-01

    There have been numerous extreme flood events observed in Europe in the past years. One of the way to improve our understanding about causing flood generation mechanisms is to analyse spatial and temporal variability of a large number of flood events. The aim of this study is to present a pan-European catalogue of flood events developed within the SWITCH-ON EU Project. The flood events are identified from daily discharge observations at 1315 stations listed in Global Runoff Data Centre database. The average length of discharge time-series for selected stations is 54 years. For each event, basin boundary and additional hydrological and weather characteristics are extracted. Hydrological characteristics are extracted from the pan-European HYPE model simulations. Precipitation, together with the corresponding proportions of rainfall and snowfall, snowmelt, and evapotranspiration are computed as total amounts between the event start date and event peak date. Soil moisture, soil moisture deficit, and basin accumulated snow water equivalent are computed for the event start date. Weather characteristics are derived from the weather circulation pattern catalogue developed within COST 733 Project. The results are generated in an open data access and tools framework which allows reproduction and extension of results to other regions. More information about the analysis and project are available at: http://www.water-switch-on.eu/lab.html.

  4. Loss of life in flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Špitalar, Maruša

    2013-04-01

    Natural disasters per se give a negative connotation. They are destructive to material elements in a space, nature itself and represent a threat to peoples' lives and health. Floods, especially flash floods due to its power and happening suddenly cause extensive damage. Hence, they are hard to predict and are characterized with violent movement, lots of lives are lost. Floods are among natural hazards the one causing the highest number of fatalities. Having said that very important aspects are humans' vulnerability, risk perception, their behavior when confronted with hazardous situations and on the other hand issues related to adequate warning signs and canals of communication. It is very important to take into consideration this segments also and not mainly just structural measures. However the aim of this paper is to emphasis mainly the social aspects of floods. It consists of two main parts. First one refers to mans' vulnerability, risk perception when it comes to danger caused by rising waters and how does culture influences peoples' response and reaction to flood causalities. The second part consists of data about detailed information on circumstances of death that have been collected from several different sources from several EU countries. There has been also available information on the age and gender of people who lost lives in flood events. With gender males dominated among death people since tend to risk more in risky situations. There has been also defined a vulnerable age group among flood fatalities. Analysis of circumstance of death enabled us to define risky groups that are very important for flood managers. Further on this is very beneficial also for risk prevention, early warning systems and creating the best canals in order to information about upcoming danger would successfully reach people at hazardous areas and also for the others to avoid them.

  5. Coastal flood events in the Maldives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wadey, Matthew; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan; McCabe, Maurice

    2016-04-01

    The Maldives are low lying (mostly < 1m above mean sea level) coral islands in the Indian Ocean that are threatened by coastal flooding and sea-level rise (SLR). Protection of low-lying islands and climate change adaptation is optimum where physical systems are understood, yet there is a lack of basic physical information and data about coastal flooding and its causes in the Maldives, which this study addresses. We primarily focus upon an artificial island (Hulhumalé) built 2m above mean sea level to relieve population pressure on the nearby capital Malé. Records show that two severe coastal flood events affected the islands (although not Hulhumalé) in recent decades during April 1987 and May 2007. The primary data source was time series of still water levels at 3 tide gauges which span over 800km north-south across the archipelago (covering 1987-present). Wave conditions (2006-2014) were extracted from a model hindcast, since observational records are not available. The sea-level and wave data were analysed in relation to land heights and SLR, and by applying an overtopping model. This illustrated how the fundamental cause of the 1987 and 2007 floods was south-westerly swell events with wave periods of up to 20s combined with spring tides. Overtopping simulations based upon present-day extremes and projected SLR scenarios, suggest that a relatively small variation of background still water level can drastically increase overtopping and worsen flood impacts. This is partly due to the flatness of the island, although also highlights the sensitivity of flood risk in these islands to mean SLR. In this context of extreme events, projected SLR, and population growth, we briefly discuss adaptation in the context of socio-economic and environmental change. Recommendations are made for future data collection and monitoring.

  6. Understanding Extreme Spanish Coastal Flood Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diez, J. Javier; Esteban, M. Dolores; Silvestre, J. Manuel

    2013-04-01

    The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise by storm surge accompanying rain process on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the presentation analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event was due to the meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon affecting one or more basins on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. An overview of the very main events since 11th century in the East to Southeast areas in Spain is shown in the presentation, looking for relation with climatic conditions and Climate changes on one hand, and with geomorphologic and geotechnical conditions on the other It also describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold

  7. Flood Summary Chehalis River Basin, January 1990 Event (and November 1990 Event Addendum)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-05-31

    Chehalis area. On the other hand, the three Eastern Washington counties (Chelan, Kittitas and Yakima ) experienced severe flooding for the first time in...River Basin, Washington Floods, 1990 19 ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) The main report documents the 100-year...2 6. Temperature ........................................................ 2 7. Freezing Level and Snowpack

  8. NETL: The First 100 Years

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2016-07-12

    The National Energy Technology Laboratory celebrates 100 years of innovative energy technology development. NETL has been a leader in energy technology development. This video takes a look back at the many accomplishments over the past 100 years. These advances benefit the American people, enhance our nation's energy security and protect our natural resources.

  9. NETL: The First 100 Years

    SciTech Connect

    2015-07-21

    The National Energy Technology Laboratory celebrates 100 years of innovative energy technology development. NETL has been a leader in energy technology development. This video takes a look back at the many accomplishments over the past 100 years. These advances benefit the American people, enhance our nation's energy security and protect our natural resources.

  10. A Dendrochronological Analysis of Mississippi River Flood Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Therrell, M. D.; Bialecki, M. B.; Peters, C.

    2012-12-01

    We used a novel tree-ring record of anatomically anomalous "flood rings" preserved in Oak (Quercus sp.) trees growing downstream of the Mississippi and Ohio River confluence to identify spring (MAM) flood events on the lower Mississippi River from C.E. 1694-2009. Our chronology includes virtually all of the observed high-magnitude spring floods of the 20th century as well as similar flood events in prior centuries occurring on the Mississippi River adjacent to the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway. A response index analysis indicates that over half of the floods identified caused anatomical injury to well over 50% of the sampled trees and many of the greatest flood events are recorded by more than 80% of the trees at the site including 100% of the trees in the great flood of 1927. Twenty-five of the 40 floods identified as flood rings in the tree-ring record, occur during the instrumental observation period at New Madrid, Missouri (1879-2009), and comparison of the response index with average daily river stage height values indicates that the flood ring record can explain significant portions of the variance in both stage height (30%) and number of days in flood (40%) during spring flood events. The flood ring record also suggests that high-magnitude spring flooding is episodic and linked to basin-scale pluvial events driven by decadal-scale variability of the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA). This relationship suggests that the tree-ring record of flooding may also be used as a proxy record of atmospheric variability related to the PNA and related large-scale forcing.

  11. Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Dimou, George

    1997-04-01

    The sensitivity of Acheloos river flood events at the outfall of the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central Greece was analysed under various scenarios of global climate change. The climate change pattern was simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) scenarios of temperature increase coupled with precipitation changes. The daily outflow of the catchment, which is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, was simulated by the coupling of snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System. Two threshold levels were used to define a flood day—the double and triple long-term mean daily streamflow—and the flood parameters (occurrences, duration, magnitude, etc.) for these cases were determined. Despite the complicated response of flood events to temperature increase and threshold, both hypothetical and monthly GISS representations of climate change resulted in more and longer flood events for climates with increased precipitation. All climates yielded larger flood volumes and greater mean values of flood peaks with respect to precipitation increase. The lower threshold resulted in more and longer flood occurrences, as well as smaller flood volumes and peaks than those of the upper one. The combination of higher and frequent flood events could lead to greater risks of inudation and possible damage to structures. Furthermore, the winter swelling of the streamflow could increase erosion of the river bed and banks and hence modify the river profile.

  12. 100 Years of ACCU Leadership.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmons, Andrew N.

    1999-01-01

    Chronicles the administrative organization and governance of the Association of Catholic Colleges and Universities over its 100-year history, especially the membership and role of the executive committee and major organizational changes. A chart and timeline lists leaders since 1899. (MSE)

  13. Understanding the effects of past flood events and perceived and estimated flood risks on individuals' voluntary flood insurance purchase behavior.

    PubMed

    Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard; Jackson, Nida; Goidel, Kirby

    2017-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the economic damage from flooding in the coastal areas has greatly increased due to rapid coastal development coupled with possible climate change impacts. One effective way to mitigate excessive economic losses from flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a minority of coastal residents however have taken this preventive measure. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data, this study examines the effects of external influences and perceptions of flood-related risks on individuals' voluntary behaviors to purchase flood insurance. It is found that the estimated flood hazard conveyed through the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) flood maps, the intensities and consequences of past storms and flooding events, and perceived flood-related risks significantly affect individual's voluntary purchase of flood insurance. This behavior is also influenced by home ownership, trust in local government, education, and income. These findings have several important policy implications. First, FEMA's flood maps have been effective in conveying local flood risks to coastal residents, and correspondingly influencing their decisions to voluntarily seek flood insurance in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Flood maps therefore should be updated frequently to reflect timely and accurate information about flood hazards. Second, policy makers should design strategies to increase homeowners' trust in the local government, to better communicate flood risks with residents, to address the affordability issue for the low-income, and better inform less educated homeowners through various educational programs. Future studies should examine the voluntary flood insurance behavior across countries that are vulnerable to flooding.

  14. Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

    2016-11-01

    The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

  15. Special challenges in assessing and mapping flood risk following a flood-debris flow event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aggett, Graeme

    2016-04-01

    Severe rainfall along the Colorado front range in 2013 delivered flood and debris flows to many mountain communities, causing millions of dollars of damage as well as taking several lives. Phase changes in clear-hyperconcentrated-debris flows during the event created challenges in recreating the hydrology post-flood and in estimating and mapping new regulatory floodplains to support ongoing flood recovery efforts. This presentation highlights approaches used to overcome these challenges and to adequately represent the different processes and their uncertainties in updated flood hazard and risk assessments. It also considers the need to educate and involve the community in this process.

  16. Historical hydrology and database on flood events (Apulia, southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lonigro, Teresa; Basso, Alessia; Gentile, Francesco; Polemio, Maurizio

    2014-05-01

    Historical data about floods represent an important tool for the comprehension of the hydrological processes, the estimation of hazard scenarios as a basis for Civil Protection purposes, as a basis of the rational land use management, especially in karstic areas, where time series of river flows are not available and the river drainage is rare. The research shows the importance of the improvement of existing flood database with an historical approach, finalized to collect past or historical floods event, in order to better assess the occurrence trend of floods, in the case for the Apulian region (south Italy). The main source of records of flood events for Apulia was the AVI (the acronym means Italian damaged areas) database, an existing Italian database that collects data concerning damaging floods from 1918 to 1996. The database was expanded consulting newspapers, publications, and technical reports from 1996 to 2006. In order to expand the temporal range further data were collected searching in the archives of regional libraries. About 700 useful news from 17 different local newspapers were found from 1876 to 1951. From a critical analysis of the 700 news collected since 1876 to 1952 only 437 were useful for the implementation of the Apulia database. The screening of these news showed the occurrence of about 122 flood events in the entire region. The district of Bari, the regional main town, represents the area in which the great number of events occurred; the historical analysis confirms this area as flood-prone. There is an overlapping period (from 1918 to 1952) between old AVI database and new historical dataset obtained by newspapers. With regard to this period, the historical research has highlighted new flood events not reported in the existing AVI database and it also allowed to add more details to the events already recorded. This study shows that the database is a dynamic instrument, which allows a continuous implementation of data, even in real time

  17. Flooding in river mouths: human caused or natural events? Five centuries of flooding events in the SW Netherlands, 1500-2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Kraker, A. M. J.

    2015-06-01

    This paper looks into flood events of the past 500 years in the SW Netherlands, addressing the issue of what kind of flooding events have occurred and which ones have mainly natural causes and which ones are predominantly human induced. The flood events are classified into two major categories: (a) flood events that were caused during storm surges and (b) flood events which happened during warfare. From both categories a selection of flood events has been made. Each flood event is discussed in terms of time, location, extent of the flooded area and specific conditions. Among these conditions, specific weather circumstances and how long they lasted, the highest water levels reached and dike maintenance are discussed as far as flood events caused during storm surges are concerned. Flood events during warfare as both offensive and defensive strategies are relevant; the paper demonstrates that although the strategic flood events obviously were man-made, the natural feature, being the use of fresh water or sea water, of these events also played a major role. Flood events caused during storm surge may have an obvious natural cause, but the extent of the flooding and damage it caused was largely determined by man.

  18. Flooding in river mouths: human caused or natural events? Five centuries of flooding events in the SW Netherlands, 1500-2000

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Kraker, A. M. J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper looks into the flooding events of the past 500 years in the SW Netherlands addressing the issue what kind of flooding events have occurred and which ones have mainly natural causes and which ones are predominantly human induced. The flooding events are classified into two major categories: (a) flooding events that were caused during storm surges and (b) flooding events which happened during war fare. From both categories a selection of flooding events has been made. Each flooding event is discussed in terms time, location, extent of the flooded area and specific conditions. Among these conditions specific weather circumstances and how long they lasted, the highest water levels reached and dike maintenance are discussed as far as flooding events caused during storm surges are concerned. About the flooding events during war fare, offensive and defensive strategies are relevant. The paper demonstrates that although the strategic flooding events obviously were man-made, the natural feature, being the use of fresh water or sea water, of these events also played a major role. Flooding events caused during storm surge may have an obvious natural cause, but the extent of the flooding and damage it caused were largely determined by man.

  19. Preliminary results from two international pluvial flood event studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roezer, Viktor; Spekkers, Matthieu; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Pluvial floods have caused severe damages to urban dwellings in Europe and elsewhere in recent years. With a predicted increase in extreme weather events as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. These type of flood events, caused by stormwater being unable to enter urban drainage systems or flowing out of urban drainage systems when capacity is exceeded, often happen with little warning and in areas which are often not obviously prone to flooding. Up to now little research was done on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods, as empirical damage data of pluvial flooding is scarce. In this study, results of two telephone surveys are discussed. The surveys comprise interviews with more than 500 flood-affected households in Germany (Münster and Greven) and the Netherlands (Amsterdam), related to the severe rain event of July 28th 2014. Respondents were asked a series of questions about the damage to their building structure and contents, as well as on topics such as early warning, emergency and precautionary measures, building properties and hazard characteristics. The questionnaire was developed with the aim to create a harmonized transnational pluvial flood damage survey that can potentially be extended to other European countries. New indicator variables have been developed to account for different national and regional standards in building structure, early warning, socio-economic data and recovery. The survey data from the German and Dutch case studies are compared with the goal to identify similarities and differences in damage reducing factors and recovery. Water level data and other hazard characteristics are used to form comparable groups out of the German and Dutch sample. Within these groups, regional distinctions in building topology and use are expected to have the strongest impact on differences between reported damage amounts of the two case studies. The newly collected data will be used in

  20. Modeling flood event characteristics using D-vine structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafaei, Maryam; Fakheri-Fard, Ahmad; Dinpashoh, Yagob; Mirabbasi, Rasoul; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    The authors investigate the use of drawable (D-)vine structures to model the dependences existing among the main characteristics of a flood event, i.e., flood volume, flood peak, duration, and peak time. Firstly, different three- and four-dimensional probability distributions were built considering all the permutations of the conditioning variables. The Frank copula was used to model the dependence of each pair of variables. Then, the appropriate D-vine structures were selected using information criteria and a goodness-of-fit test. The influence of varying the data length on the selected D-vine structure was also investigated. Finally, flood event characteristics were simulated using the four-dimensional D-vine structure.

  1. The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Malamud, B.D.; Turcotte, D.L.; Barton, C.C.

    1996-01-01

    Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

  2. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  3. Flood basalt eruptions, comet showers, and mass extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, Michael R.; Stothers, Richard B.

    1988-01-01

    A chronology of initiation dates of the major continental flood basalt episodes has been established from compilation of published K-Ar and Ar-Ar ages of basaltic flows and related basic intrusions. The dating is therefore independent of the biostratigraphic and paleomagnetic time scales, and the estimated errors of the inititation dates are approximately + or - 4 pct. There are 11 distinct episodes of continental flood basalts known during the past 250 Myr. The data show that flood basalt episodes are generally relatively brief geologic events, with intermittent eruptions during peak output periods lasting ony 2 to 3 Myr or less. Statistical analyses suggest that these episodes may have occurred quasi-periodically with a mean cycle time of 32 + or - 1 Myr. The initiation dates of the flood basalts are close to the estimated dates of marine mass extinctions and impact-crater clusters. Although a purely internal forcing might be argued for the flood basalt volcanism, quasi-periodic comet impacts may be the trigger for both the flood basalts and the extinctions. Impact cratering models suggest that large-body impactors lead to deep initial cratering, and therefore may cause mantle disturbances and initiate mantle plume activity. The flood basalt episodes commonly mark the initiation or jump of a mantle hotspot, and are often followed by continental rifting and separation. Evidence from dynamical studies of impacts, occurrences of craters and hotspots, and the geochemistry of boundary layers is synthesized to provide a possible model of impact-generated volcanism. Flood basalt eruptions may themselves have severe effects on climate, and possibly on life. Impacts might, as a result, have led to mass extinctions through direct atmospheric disturbances, and/or indirectly through prolonged flood basalt volcanism.

  4. Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the

  5. Extreme flood events in the Dead Sea basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlborn, Marieke; Ben Dor, Yoav; Schwab, Markus J.; Neugebauer, Ina; Plessen, Birgit; Tjallingii, Rik; Erel, Yigal; Enzel, Yehouda; Brauer, Achim

    2016-04-01

    The Dead Sea is a hypersaline, terminal lake located within the Dead Sea basin at the lowest continental elevation on Earth (~425 m below mean sea level). Extreme hydro-meteorological events in terms of flash floods occur regularly during the wet season in the Dead Sea basin and adjacent mountain ranges. However, little is known about the impact of these extreme floods on the sedimentary dynamics in the Dead Sea and possible links to long-term climate changes. The trilateral research project PALEX (Paleoclimate in the Eastern Mediterranean Region - Levante: Paleohydrology and Extreme Flood Events) was recently initiated within the framework of the DFG priority program 1006 ICDP (International Continental Scientific Drilling Program) to investigate extreme flood events in the Dead Sea basin during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Within the ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) the ~455 m long sediment core 5017-1 was recovered from the northern Dead Sea basin. Previously published results (Neugebauer et al., 2014, 2015) have demonstrated the occurrence of extreme flood events represented in the sediments as thick graded detrital layers during Late Holocene dry phases. Based on these results we will apply a comprehensive analytical approach including microfacies analyses, μXRF element scanning, and stable isotope geochemistry to different time intervals of core 5017-1. Particularly, we aim to investigate the structure and composition of detrital layers in order to decipher sediment transport mechanisms and the provenance of the flood-triggered sediments. The overarching goal is to establish a high-resolution extreme flood time series for the Dead Sea basin on the basis of a previously established radiocarbon and U-Th chronology (Torfstein et al., 2015; Neugebauer et al., 2014) and to study a possible link between the frequency and magnitude of extreme flood events and the long-term climate trend. Neugebauer I, Brauer A, Schwab MJ, et al. (2014) Lithology of

  6. Industrial accidents triggered by flood events: analysis of past accidents.

    PubMed

    Cozzani, Valerio; Campedel, Michela; Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2010-03-15

    Industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NaTech accidents) are a significant category of industrial accidents. Several specific elements that characterize NaTech events still need to be investigated. In particular, the damage mode of equipment and the specific final scenarios that may take place in NaTech accidents are key elements for the assessment of hazard and risk due to these events. In the present study, data on 272 NaTech events triggered by floods were retrieved from some of the major industrial accident databases. Data on final scenarios highlighted the presence of specific events, as those due to substances reacting with water, and the importance of scenarios involving consequences for the environment. This is mainly due to the contamination of floodwater with the hazardous substances released. The analysis of process equipment damage modes allowed the identification of the expected release extents due to different water impact types during floods. The results obtained were used to generate substance-specific event trees for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of accidents triggered by floods.

  7. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Complex Terrain Flood Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, Y.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Zoccatelli, D.; Borga, M., Sr.

    2015-12-01

    The error characteristics of satellite precipitation driven flood event simulations over mountainous basins are evaluated in this study for eight different global satellite products. A methodology is devised to match the observed records of the flood events with the corresponding satellite and reference rainfall and runoff simulations. The flood events are sorted according to flood type (i.e. rain flood and flash flood) and basin's antecedent conditions represented by the event's runoff-to-precipitation ratio. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin scale event properties (i.e. cumulative volume, timing and shape). Overall satellite-driven event runoff exhibits better error metrics than the satellite precipitation. Better error metrics are also shown for the rain flood events relative to the flash flood events. The event timing and shape from satellite-derived precipitation agreed well with the reference; the cumulative volume is mostly underestimated. In terms of error propagation, the study shows dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven runoff time series relative to the satellite-retrieved event precipitation. This error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with high runoff coefficients. This study provides for a first time flood event characteristics of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling, which has implications on the Global Precipitation Measurement application in mountain flood hydrology.

  8. Nonlinear, discrete flood event models, 2. Assessment of statistical nonlinearity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, Bryson C.

    1988-05-01

    The first paper (Part 1) of this series presented a Bayesian procedure for the estimation of parameters in nonlinear, discrete flood event models. Part 2 begins with a discussion of the concept of nonlinearity in parameter estimation, its consequences, and the need to assess its extent. Three measures of nonlinearity are considered. They are Beale's measure , a bias calculation , and maximum curvature measures . A case study is presented, using the model and data described in Part 1. The results show quite clearly that care is required in the application of all three measures to calibrated flood models, and in the interpretation of the measured values. Devised by Bates and Watts, 1980.

  9. Environmental impacts of Major Flood Events: Hurricane Katrina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reible, D. D.

    2008-05-01

    The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina provides many lessons for the environmental and engineering communities and raises serious public policy questions about risk management. Although serious environmental and waste management concerns were highlighted as a result of the flooding, many were not observed in the extensive environmental sampling that occurred. The potential environmental consequences were of concern because of the many chemical plants, petroleum facilities, and contaminated sites, including Superfund sites, in the areas covered by floodwaters. The potential sources of toxics and environmental contaminants included metal-contaminated soils typical of old urban areas. Compounding these concerns is the presence of hazardous chemicals commonly stored in households and commercial establishments and the fuel and motor oil in approximately 350,000 flooded automobiles. Uncontrolled biological wastes from both human and animal sources also contributed to the pollutant burden. There were concerns associated with the immediate impacts of the flooding, the disposal of the debris and wastes in the aftermath, as well as the long- term legacy associated with contaminants in homes and yards. This discussion focuses on successes and failures in responding to each of these concerns as well as lessons learned for future major flooding events. Special attention is paid to some of the unique hazards posed by Katrina, including water quality impacts associated with debris disposal, high indoor concentrations of contaminants due to fractionation from outdoor soils, and mold.

  10. Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modarres, Reza; Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.

    2016-09-01

    Located in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran has experienced many extreme flood and drought events in the last and current century. The present study aims to assess the changes in Iran's flood magnitude and drought severity for 1950-2010, with some time span variation in some stations. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend was first applied to assess changes in flood and drought severity data. In addition, to consider the effect of serial correlation, two Pre-Whitening Trend (PWT) tests were also applied. It was observed that the number of stations with statistically significant trends has increased after applying PWT tests. Both increasing and decreasing trends were observed for drought severity and flood magnitude in different climate regions and major basins of Iran using these tests. The increase in flood magnitude and drought severity can be attributed partly to land use changes, an annual rainfall negative trend, a maximum rainfall increasing trend, and inappropriate water resources management policies. The paper indicates a critical situation related to extreme climate change in Iran and the increasing risk of environmental changes in the 21st century.

  11. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  12. Flash flooding in small urban watersheds: Storm event hydrologic response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Zhang, Yan

    2016-06-01

    We analyze flash flooding in small urban watersheds, with special focus on the roles of rainfall variability, antecedent soil moisture, and urban storm water management infrastructure in storm event hydrologic response. Our results are based on empirical analyses of high-resolution rainfall and discharge observations over Harry's Brook watershed in Princeton, New Jersey, during 2005-2006, as well as numerical experiments with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. We focus on two subwatersheds of Harry's Brook, a 1.1 km2 subwatershed which was developed prior to modern storm water management regulations, and a 0.5 km2 subwatershed with an extensive network of storm water detention ponds. The watershed developed prior to modern storm water regulations is an "end-member" in urban flood response, exhibiting a frequency of flood peaks (with unit discharge exceeding 1 m3 s-1 km-2) that is comparable to the "flashiest" watersheds in the conterminous U.S. Observational analyses show that variability in storm event water balance is strongly linked to peak rain rates at time intervals of less than 30 min and only weakly linked to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Peak discharge for both the 1.1 and 0.5 km2 subwatersheds are strongly correlated with rainfall rate averaged over 1-30 min. Hydrologic modeling analyses indicate that the sensitivity of storm event hydrologic response to spatial rainfall variability decreases with storm intensity. Temporal rainfall variability is relatively more important than spatial rainfall variability in representing urban flood response, especially for extreme storm events.

  13. Derived flood frequency distributions considering individual event hydrograph shapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassini, Sonia; Guo, Yiping

    2017-04-01

    Derived in this paper is the frequency distribution of the peak discharge rate of a random runoff event from a small urban catchment. The derivation follows the derived probability distribution procedure and incorporates a catchment rainfall-runoff model with approximating shapes for individual runoff event hydrographs. In the past, only simple triangular runoff event hydrograph shapes were used, in this study approximating runoff event hydrograph shapes better representing all the possibilities are considered. The resulting closed-form mathematical equations are converted to the commonly required flood frequency distributions for use in urban stormwater management studies. The analytically determined peak discharge rates of different return periods for a wide range of hypothetical catchment conditions were compared to those determined from design storm modeling. The newly derived equations generated results that are closer to those from design storm modeling and provide a better alternative for use in urban stormwater management studies.

  14. The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

    2016-04-01

    There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water

  15. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, J.; Prskawetz, A.; Grass, D.; Blöschl, G.

    2015-06-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  16. The Psychoanalytic Review: 100 years of history.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Alan J

    2013-02-01

    This paper is written in celebration of the centenary of The Psychoanalytic Review and aims to bring to life its entire history-100 years of publication. Almost as old as psychoanalysis itself, established by Jelliffe and White as a nonorthodox journal, and guided by all its subsequent editors, the Review has maintained its original mission: to serve as an open venue for all psychoanalytic perspectives, "a free forum for all." But the history of the Review is not without controversy. Freud made no original contributions to the Review. The paper unveils the Review's, rich history by looking briefly into the lives of some of its editors, the circumstances surrounding the creation of the Review (including pertinent correspondence between Freud and Brill and between Freud and Jelliffe), the years (with their engrossing politics) that followed the establishment of the Review until its merger with the journal Psychoanalysis (the official journal of NPAP), and the years that followed the merger to the present, including some of the important events that reshaped psychoanalysis. The role of the Review in promoting and reflecting almost the entire evolution of psychoanalysis is illustrated throughout.

  17. Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

    2015-12-01

    . Major historical flood events have been successfully simulated along with spatial patterns of flows. Comparison of stochastic discharge statistics w.r.t. observed ones from Hydrological Year Books of Taiwan over all recorded years are also in good agreement.

  18. Characteristics and dependencies of error in satellite-based flood event simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mei, Yiwen; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

    2016-04-01

    The error in satellite precipitation driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin scale event properties (i.e. rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape). Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite-precipitation exhibits good agreement with reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of time series shows significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events, and the rain flood events with high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

  19. River flood events in Thailand and Bangladesh observed by CryoSat-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Karina; Villadsen, Heidi; Andersen, Ole; Stenseng, Lars; Knudsen, Per

    2015-04-01

    The high along track resolution of the SIRAL altimeter carried on-board CryoSat-2 offers a wide range of unique opportunities for satellite monitoring. This study focuses on the ability of CryoSat-2 to detect the effects of flood events such as increased river levels and inundation of land. Here we study two flood events; the Bangladesh flood event of June 2012 and the flooding in Thailand that lasted between July 2011 and January 2012. The flooding in these areas was caused by abnormal monsoonal rainfall and affected millions of people. We process CryoSat-2 level 1b SAR mode data to derive water levels for the areas and compare these levels before, during and after the flooding events. Other parameters such as the backscatter coefficient and pulse peakiness are also considered. To verify the extent of the flooding observed by CryoSat-2 we compare with independent sources such as Landsat images.

  20. Effects of a flooding event on a threatened black bear population in Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Connell-Goode, Kaitlin C.; Lowe, Carrie L.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    The Louisiana black bear, Ursus americanus luteolus, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of habitat loss and human-related mortality. Information on population-level responses of large mammals to flooding events is scarce, and we had a unique opportunity to evaluate the viability of the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB) black bear population before and after a significant flooding event. We began collecting black bear hair samples in 2007 for a DNA mark-recapture study to estimate abundance (N) and apparent survival (φ). In 2011, the Morganza Spillway was opened to divert floodwaters from the Mississippi River through the UARB, inundating > 50% of our study area, potentially impacting recovery of this important bear population. To evaluate the effects of this flooding event on bear population dynamics, we used a robust design multistate model to estimate changes in transition rates from the flooded area to non-flooded area (ψF→NF) before (2007–2010), during (2010–2011) and after (2011–2012) the flood. Average N across all years of study was 63.2 (SE = 5.2), excluding the year of the flooding event. Estimates of ψF→NF increased from 0.014 (SE = 0.010; meaning that 1.4% of the bears moved from the flooded area to non-flooded areas) before flooding to 0.113 (SE = 0.045) during the flood year, and then decreased to 0.028 (SE= 0.035) after the flood. Although we demonstrated a flood effect on transition rates as hypothesized, the effect was small (88.7% of the bears remained in the flooded area during flooding) and φ was unchanged, suggesting that the 2011 flooding event had minimal impact on survival and site fidelity.

  1. Convergence: Human Intelligence The Next 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fluellen, Jerry E., Jr.

    2005-01-01

    How might human intelligence evolve over the next 100 years? This issue paper explores that idea. First, the paper summarizes five emerging perspectives about human intelligence: Howard Gardner's multiple intelligences theory, Robert Sternberg's triarchic theory of intelligence, Ellen Langer's mindfulness theory, David Perkins' learnable…

  2. Do weirs influence a river's hydrosedimentological response to flood events?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulcock, Amelia; Whitfield, Elizabeth; Lopez Tarazon, Jose; Whitfield, R. Greg

    2015-04-01

    Weirs are the most common anthropogenic pressures in British river systems. The agenda for catchment-scale restoration of river systems, largely driven by the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD - 2000/60/EC), has led to a recognition that many of these structures may need to be removed to re-establish more 'natural' processes to river systems. These physical barriers impact rivers severely, modifying hydrology (i.e. creating artificial flow regimes), sediment flux (i.e. interrupting the sediment transfer through river systems), and channel forms at different scales (i.e. changing downstream erosion and deposition patterns). They also alter greatly the natural fluvial processes, hence making the regulated rivers behave significantly different to natural unmodified river channels. However, the above impacts, and the majority of accepted models for response to weir installation/removal, are conceptual and based on empirical observations. In fact, the impact of weirs on rivers hydro-geomorphology and sediment transport is largely unconstrained and poorly understood. Further to this, even less knowledge and research surrounds the impacts of weirs on individual flood events. The current study aims to use empirical observations of river flow (i.e. water monitoring), sediment transport (both suspended and bedload) and sedimentology (i.e. bed stability, sediment entrainment, long-term planform changes/evolution) together with climatic, hydrological and sedimentological modeling to improve the understanding of weirs' affectation on the river's hydro-geomorphology at several timescales (i.e. from singular flood events to annual/centurial scales). A step beyond the present project is to use the data and the knowledge that will be gained to better address/model the geomorphic adjustment of rivers following weir removal.

  3. The December 2008 flood event in Rome: Was it really an extreme event?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lastoria, B.; Mariani, S.; Casaioli, M.; Bussettini, M.

    2009-04-01

    In mid December 2008, Italy suffered bad weather with heavy snowfall blanketing the north and strong winds and downpours pelting the centre-south. In particular, during the period between 10th and 12th December, intense precipitation struck the Tyrrhenian Sea side of the peninsula, inducing a flood event, which captured the attention of the national and international media, on the Tiber river and on its tributary, the Aniene. The relevance of the event was caused by the actual damages occurred in several zones over Rome area, in particular due to the downpours and to damages which would have occurred if Tiber river had overflowed its banks. The event, which was initially considered as extreme, was indeed severe but not so exceptional as shown by the meteo-hydrological post-event analysis. The peak water level of 12.55 m, recorded on 13th December at 1:30 a.m. (local time) at the Ripetta station, which is situated along the Tiber river in the centre of Rome, was higher than those observed during the last ten years (which to the utmost reached 11.41 m in December 2005). However, it did not reach the historical maximum of 16.90 m observed in 1937. Moreover, on the basis of the Ripetta historical series, such a level is associated to an ordinary flood event. Even if the flood was ordinary, a state of emergency was declared by the Rome's Mayor, since the event caused severe damages by disrupting flight and train services, blocking off major roads leading into Rome, flooding underpasses and sealing off industrial activities sited in the flooded areas, in particular nearby the confluence of the Aniene river with the Tiber river. In addition, hundreds of people were evacuated and a woman died in a her car which was submerged by a wave of water and mud in an underpass. Given these premises, the present work examines the relation between a severe, but not extraordinary, event and the considerable damages that occurred as a consequence. First, the meteorological evolution of

  4. The management of urban surface water flood risks: SUDS performance in flood reduction from extreme events.

    PubMed

    Viavattene, C; Ellis, J B

    2013-01-01

    The need to improve the urban drainage network to meet recent urban growth and the redevelopment of old industrial and commercial areas provides an opportunity for managing urban surface water infrastructure in a more sustainable way. The use of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) can reduce urban surface water flooding as well as the pollution impact of urban discharges on receiving waters. However, these techniques are not yet well known by many stakeholders involved in the decision-making process, or at least the evidence of their performance effectiveness may be doubted compared with more traditional engineering solutions often promoted by existing 1D/2D drainage models. The use of geographic information systems (GIS) in facilitating the inter-related risk analysis of sewer surface water overflows and urban flooding as well as in better communication with stakeholders is demonstrated in this paper. An innovative coupled 1D/2D urban sewer/overland flow model has been developed and tested in conjunction with a SUDS selection and location tool (SUDSLOC) to enable a robust management approach to surface water flood risks and to improve the resilience of the urban drainage infrastructure. The paper demonstrates the numerical and modelling basis of the integrated 1D/2D and SUDSLOC approach and the working assumptions and flexibility of the application together with some limitations and uncertainties. The role of the SUDSLOC modelling component in quantifying flow, and surcharge reduction benefits arising from the strategic selection and location of differing SUDS controls are also demonstrated for an extreme storm event scenario.

  5. Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiss, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

  6. The AAS: Its Next 100 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, S.

    1999-05-01

    The AAS: Its Next Hundred Years "We are probably nearing the limit of all we can know about astronomy."-- Simon Newcomb, 1888. The best way to celebrate the centennial of the AAS is to look forward, not backward, and to begin planning for the next 100 years. However, predicting the future is even more difficult than it was in Newcomb's time. We live in an era characterized by an unprecedented rate of change in the kinds of scientific questions we ask, the tools we use to answer them, and the way we communicate our results. This talk will highlight some of the issues that we will face as a community during the next 10--but not the next 100!--years and suggests that the AAS has a fundamental role to play in shaping the community response to these issues.

  7. Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merz, B.; Elmer, F.; Thieken, A. H.

    2009-06-01

    The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events. Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology, distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are probable, when risk aversion is taken into account.

  8. SMAP observes flooding from land to sea: The Texas event of 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fournier, S.; Reager, J. T.; Lee, T.; Vazquez-Cuervo, J.; David, C. H.; Gierach, M. M.

    2016-10-01

    Floods can have damaging impacts on both land and sea, yet studies of flooding events tend to focus on only one side of the land/sea continuum. Here we present the first two-sided analysis, focusing on the May 2015 severe flooding in Texas. Our investigation benefits from simultaneous measurements of land surface soil moisture and sea surface salinity from NASA's recent Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission as well as ancillary data. We report the comprehensive chronology of the flooding: above average rainfall preceding the flood caused soils to saturate; record rainfall then generated record river discharge; and subsequently, an unusual freshwater plume associated with anomalous ocean currents formed in the north central Gulf of Mexico. Together with the Mississippi River plume, a rare "horseshoe" pattern was created that may have significant biogeochemical implications. Such integrated land/sea analysis of flood evolution can improve impact assessments of future extreme flooding events.

  9. Tsunami flooding along Tagus estuary, Portugal, the 1531 event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.; Batlo, J.; Ferreira, H.

    2012-04-01

    TSUNAMI FLOODING ALONG TAGUS ESTUARY (PORTUGAL), THE 1531 EVENT The city of Lisbon one of the main towns in Europe between the XVI and XVIII centuries was severely damaged by two strong earthquakes: 1531-01-26 and 1755-11-01 and the companion tsunamis. In this study we present a re-evaluation of the data available for this event. The 26 January 1531 earthquake occurred between 4 and 5 am and was felt mainly in Lisbon and surroundings dwellings along the Tagus river estuary. The shock heavily destroyed Lisbon downtown causing approximately 1000 casualties Two foreshocks preceded the event: on the 2nd and the 7th January 1531, respectively. The maximum MSK intensity is IX, making it one of the most disastrous earthquakes in the recent history of Portugal. The historical descriptions clearly describe the observation of high waves and the ships touching the riverbed. Although, the difference between tsunamis and storms is sometimes unclear in some historical documents, in this case, the occurrence of the of the earthquake definitively states clearly excludes the hypothesis of a storm. Moreover, the king's chronicle clearly states the observation of high waves and the lack of wind. Other reports consistent with the occurrence of a tsunami are the observation of strong fluxes and refluxes in the river the division of islands into smaller ones and the observation of the riverbed. In this study we present a re-appraisal of the historical information available, a new isoseismal map and the relocation of the epicentre. Finally, we present a tsunami simulation and propagation along a section of 70 km along Tagus estuary compatible with the earthquake data and the historical accounts.

  10. Gas turbines fire up after 100 years

    SciTech Connect

    Zink, J.C.

    1996-06-01

    It`s a familiar story. The ancient Greeks, Romans or Egyptians discovered a major physical principle and demonstrated it in a device that can be regarded as the forerunner of some modern technology. Then, as the industrial age dawned, various tinkerers constructed machines using these basic principles but found serious problems that couldn`t be solved with the technology then available. Finally, a ``cost is no object`` program fostered by military needs brings the device to life and, ultimately, gives it a form that is commercially suitable. This article describes how gas turbines have progressed from the theoretical to the commonplace in 100 years.

  11. Remembering Robert Goddard's vision 100 years later

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stern, David P.

    “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” —such are the goals of most of us.Yet a few always exist who feel called by a higher purpose. Society often owes them a great deal.Robert Hutchins Goddard, whose work made spaceflight possible, found his vision 100 years ago this October as a youth of 17. His family was staying on the farm of a relative, when he was asked to trim the branches of a cherry tree behind the barn.

  12. Identification and Analysis of Storm Tracks Associated with Extreme Flood Events in Southeast and South Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, Carlos; Lopes, Camila

    2015-04-01

    Flood is the main natural disaster in Brazil, practically affecting all regions in the country and causing several economical damages and losses of lives. In traditional hydrology, the study of floods is focused on a frequency analysis of the extreme events and on the fit of statistical models to define flood quantiles associated with pre-specified return periods or exceedance probabilities. The basic assumptions are randomness and temporal stationarity of the streamflow data. In this paper we seek to advance the traditional flood frequency studies by using the ideas developed in the area of flood hydroclimatology, which is defined as the study of climate in the flood framework, i.e., the understanding of long term changes in the frequency, magnitude, duration, location and seasonality of floods as driven by the interaction of regional and global patterns of the ocean and atmospheric circulation. That being said, flood events are not treated as random and stationary but resulting from a causal chain, where exceptional floods in water basins from different sizes are related with large scale anomalies in the atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns. Hence, such studies enrich the classical assumption of stationary flood hazard adopted in most flood frequency studies through a formal consideration of the physical mechanisms responsible for the generation of extreme floods, which implies recognizing the natural climate variability due to persistent and oscillatory regimes (e.g. ENSO, NAO, PDO) in many temporal scales (interannual, decadal, etc), and climate fluctuations in response to anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere, soil use and vegetation cover. Under this framework and based on streamflow gauge and reanalysis data, we identify and analyze here the storm tracks that preceded extreme events of floods in key flood-prone regions of the country (e.g. Parana and Rio Doce River basins) with such events defined based on the magnitude, duration and volume of the

  13. Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2016-04-01

    Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

  14. Adolescent medicine with a 100 year perspective.

    PubMed

    Hardoff, Daniel; Eisenstein, Evelyn

    2004-01-01

    Adolescent medicine was born out of scientific advances from a wide variety of disciplines, changes in societal mores and the explosion of technology that occurred during the 20th century. The past 100 years of clinical practice and research have provided a wealth of information that has improved our understanding of the biologic and physical development of adolescents as well as the epidemiology of high-risk adolescent behaviors. The present challenge for all providers of health care to adolescents is to continue to examine the effect of these high-risk behaviors and develop mechanisms to address and limit the impact of these behaviors, just as the scientists and practitioners of the 20th century made great strides in treatment and cure of medical illnesses. With a broad base of scientific knowledge, formalization into an academic field and strong government and organizational support adolescent medicine are energized by these factors and can only envision continued growth in this important field of medicine.

  15. Geiger-Marsden experiments: 100 years on

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowley, Neil

    2012-09-01

    The perceptive analysis of Rutherford, celebrated at this conference, turned the experiments of Geiger and Marsden into a measurement of the radius of the object that became known as the atomic "nucleus". We now know that the nucleus can have a range of radii that depend on its static and dynamical deformations. These deformations give rise to the distributions of reaction barriers that have been extensively studied over recent years. While fusion reactions are most often used for such studies, there are cases where, for physical or practical reasons, the scattering channels must be exploited. Despite the major advantages gained from modern experimental techniques, the resulting experiments are in spirit essentially the same as those performed over 100 years ago by Rutherford and his colleagues.

  16. The link between atmospheric blockings and Central European flood events - A case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenggenhager, Sina; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa

    2016-04-01

    Flood events are among the most devastating weather-related events in Europe and can lead to large economic losses and even fatalities. Several processes, such as heavy precipitation or snow melt, can be involved in the triggering of flood events. Here we focus on precipitation only. Important characteristics of the flood triggering precipitation events are their intensity and their duration, which in return depend on the intensity and the stationarity of the associated weather system. Atmospheric blockings, due to their longevity and stationarity can influence flood related precipitation event in several ways: i) The progression of the upstream weather systems is slowed and thereby the precipitation period over a catchment can be prolonged. ii) The cumulative effect of recurrent precipitation events occurring up- or downstream of a block can result in a flood event. The interaction between blockings and flood triggering weather events potentially works in both directions. Cloud diabatic processes can be central to the establishment and maintenance of blocking anticyclones. The precipitation responsible for the flood could hence potentially extend the lifetime and strength of a blocking anticyclone located downstream of the flooded area. Here we illustrate the different interactions based on a flood event of a major lake in southern Switzerland in October 2000. During the flood event and in the month before blockings were present downstream, over Scandinavia as well as upstream, over the North-Atlantic. Three extreme precipitation episodes occured in southern Switzerland in September and October 2000. The first one took place on 20 September and was associated with an atmospheric blocking over the north Atlantic. This blocking together with a downstream anticyclone led to the formation of a PV streamer over western Europe that was responsible for the heavy precipitation. The two anticyclonic systems then merged and formed a persistent blocking over the northern

  17. Flooding

    MedlinePlus

    ... flooding Prepare for flooding For communities, companies, or water and wastewater facilities: Suggested activities to help facilities ... con monóxido de carbono. Limit contact with flood water. Flood water may have high levels of raw ...

  18. Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

    2016-04-01

    Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is

  19. ENSO and disaster: droughts, floods and El Niño/Southern Oscillation warm events.

    PubMed

    Dilley, M; Heyman, B N

    1995-09-01

    The connection between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and precipitation and temperature variability worldwide is increasingly well understood. ENSO has been linked to droughts and flooding in some regions. This paper uses the disaster history database of the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance to examine the link between ENSO events and droughts or floods of sufficient magnitude to trigger international disasters. Worldwide, disasters triggered by droughts are twice as frequent during year two of ENSO warm events than during other years. No such relationship is apparent in the case of flood disasters. Drought disasters occur during year two of ENSO warm events significantly more frequently than in other years in Southern Africa and Southeast Asia. No regional pattern emerges from a comparable analysis of flood disasters. Those places likely to be affected by ENSO-triggered droughts can take proactive measures to mitigate the impacts.

  20. EPISODIC EVENTS: THE EFFECT OF FLOODS ON NUTRIENT TRANSPORT IN A NORTHWESTERN, USA ESTUARY

    EPA Science Inventory

    To estimate the effects of storms on nutrient transport, dissolved nutrients and suspended sediment loads were measured relative to stream discharge in the Yaquina River, OR for three storm events. Episodic events, particularly high rainfall or flood events may transport high di...

  1. ANALYSIS ON RECENT FLOOD EVENTS AND TREE VEGETATION COLLAPSES IN KAKO RIVER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michioku, Kohji; Miyamoto, Hitoshi; Kanda, Keiichi; Ohchi, Yohei; Aga, Kazuho; Morioka, Jyunji; Uotani, Takuya; Yoshida, Kazuaki; Yoshimura, Satoshi

    Forestation on flood plains is a world-wide engineering issue in middle to downstream reaches in many rivers. This brings not only degradation of flow conveyance capacity but also irreversible changes of ecological system in rivers. In order to obtain information on tree vegetation behavior during flood events, field data of flow fields and tree vegetation collapse were collected in Kako River, where willows are heavily vegetated on the flood plain. After starting a H-ADCP flow measurement in 2009, small to medium size flood events frequently occurred, which enables us not only to verify an analytical model to reproduce flow fields in and out of vegetations but also to examine tree vegetation collapses after flooding. The analytical solutions on velocity profiles as well as flow force acting on trees were in good agreement with the H-ADCP measurements and tree damages, respectively.

  2. 100 Years of the Physics of Diodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luginsland, John

    2013-10-01

    The Child-Langmuir Law (CL), discovered 100 years ago, gives the maximum current that can be transported across a planar diode in the steady state. As a quintessential example of the impact of space-charge shielding near a charged surface, it is central to the studies of high current diodes, such as high power microwave sources, vacuum microelectronics, electron and ion sources, and high current drivers used in high-energy density physics experiments. CL remains a touchstone of fundamental sheath physics, including contemporary studies of nano-scale quantum diodes and plasmonic devices. Its solid state analog is the Mott-Gurney law, governing the maximum charge injection in solids, such as organic materials and other dielectrics, which is important to energy devices, such as solar cells and light-emitting diodes. This paper reviews the important advances in the physics of diodes since the discovery of CL, including virtual cathode formation and extension of CL to multiple dimensions, to the quantum regime, and to ultrafast processes. We will review the influence of magnetic fields, multiple species in bipolar flow, electromagnetic and time dependent effects in both short pulse and high frequency THz limits, and single electron regimes. Transitions from various emission mechanisms (thermionic, field, and photo-emission) to the space charge limited state (CL) will be addressed, especially highlighting important simulation and experimental developments in selected contemporary areas of study. This talk will stress the fundamental physical links between the physics of beams to limiting currents in other areas, such as low temperature plasmas, laser plasmas, and space propulsion. Also emphasized is the role of non-equilibrium phenomena associated with materials and plasmas in close contact. Work supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research.

  3. River flood events in Thailand and Bangladesh observed by CryoSat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, O. B.; Nielsen, K.; Villadsen, H.; Stenseng, L.; Knudsen, P.

    2014-12-01

    The high along track resolution of the SIRAL altimeter carried on-board CryoSat-2 offers a wide range of unique opportunities for satellite monitoring of inland water level. This study focuses on the ability of CryoSat-2 to detect the effects of flood events such as increased river levels and inundation of land. Here we study two flood events; the Bangladesh flood event of June 2012 and the flooding in Thailand that lasted between July 2011 and January 2012. The flooding in these areas was caused by abnormal monsoonal rainfall and affected millions of people. We process CryoSat-2 level 1b SAR mode data to derive water levels for the areas and compare these levels before, during and after the flooding events. Other parameters such as the backscatter coefficient and pulse peakiness are also considered. To verify the extent of the flooding observed by CryoSat-2 we compare with independent sources such as Landsat images.

  4. The timing of the Black Sea flood event: Insights from modeling of glacial isostatic adjustment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Samuel L.; Lau, Harriet C. P.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Latychev, Konstantin

    2016-10-01

    We present a suite of gravitationally self-consistent predictions of sea-level change since Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the vicinity of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits that combine signals associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the flooding of the Black Sea. Our predictions are tuned to fit a relative sea level (RSL) record at the island of Samothrace in the north Aegean Sea and they include realistic 3-D variations in viscoelastic structure, including lateral variations in mantle viscosity and the elastic thickness of the lithosphere, as well as weak plate boundary zones. We demonstrate that 3-D Earth structure and the magnitude of the flood event (which depends on the pre-flood level of the lake) both have significant impact on the predicted RSL change at the location of the Bosphorus sill, and therefore on the inferred timing of the marine incursion. We summarize our results in a plot showing the predicted RSL change at the Bosphorus sill as a function of the timing of the flood event for different flood magnitudes up to 100 m. These results suggest, for example, that a flood event at 9 ka implies that the elevation of the sill was lowered through erosion by ∼14-21 m during, and after, the flood. In contrast, a flood event at 7 ka suggests erosion of ∼24-31 m at the sill since the flood. More generally, our results will be useful for future research aimed at constraining the details of this controversial, and widely debated geological event.

  5. The role of seasonal and occasional floods in the origin of extreme hydrological events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kireeva, M. B.; Frolova, N. L.; Rets, E. P.; Telegina, E. A.; Telegina, A. A.; Ezerova, N. N.

    2015-06-01

    Extreme hydrological events on the rivers of European part of Russia are closely related to the hydrological regime transformation answering recent climate changes. Rivers in this region used to be traditionally attributed to the Eastern-European type with well-pronounced seasonal flood wave and quite low flow period during summer and winter. During the last twenty years the role of the occasional floods became more and more important. Number of winter floods, connected with thaws rose dramatically, in the same manner as summer flash floods. In this study, the frequency and duration of extreme low flow and high flow events is analyzed. The deficits during hydrological year were calculated. Due to results increase in natural runoff regulation, does not reduce frequency of extreme events, in some regions it raises.

  6. Progress of Cometary Science in the Past 100 Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sekanina, Zdenek

    1999-01-01

    Enormous strides made by cometary science during the 20th century defy any meaningful comparison of its state 100 years ago and now. The great majority of the subfields enjoying much attention nowadays did not exist in the year 1900. Dramatic developments, especially in the past 30-50 years, have equally affected observational and theoretical studies of comets. The profound diversification of observing techniques has been documented by the ever widening limits on the electromagnetic spectrum covered. While the time around 1900 marked an early period of slow and painful experimentation with photographic methods in cometary studies, observations of comets from the x-ray region to the radio waves have by now become routine. Many of the new techniques, and all those involved with the wavelengths shorter than about 300 nm, were made possible by another major breakthrough of this century - observing from space. Experiments on dedicated Earth-orbiting satellites as well as several deep-space probes have provided fascinating new information on the nature and makeup of comets. In broader terms, much of the progress has been achieved thanks to fundamental discoveries and major advances in electronics, whose applications resulted in qualitatively new instruments (e.g. radiotelescopes) and sensors or detectors (e.g. CCD arrays). The most universal effect on the entire cometary science, from observing to data handling to quantitative interpretations, has been, as in any other branch of science, due to the introduction of electronic computers, with their processing capabilities not only unheard of, but literally unimaginable, in the age of classical desk calculators. As if all this should not be enough, the today's generations of comet scientists have, in addition, been blessed with nature's highly appreciated cooperation. Indeed, in the span of a dozen years, between 1985 and 1997, we were privileged to witness four remarkable cometary events: (i) a return of Halley

  7. Probabilistic mapping of urban flood risk: Application to extreme events in Surat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Rajasekar, Umamaheshwaran; Coulthard, Tom; Keiler, Margreth

    2016-04-01

    Surat, India is a coastal city that lies on the banks of the river Tapti and is located downstream from the Ukai dam. Given Surat's geographic location, the population of five million people are repeatedly exposed to flooding caused by high tide combined with large emergency dam releases into the Tapti river. In 2006 such a flood event occurred when intense rainfall in the Tapti catchment caused a dam release near 25,000 m3 s-1 and flooded 90% of the city. A first step towards strengthening resilience in Surat requires a robust method for mapping potential flood risk that considers the uncertainty in future dam releases. Here, in this study we develop many combinations of dam release magnitude and duration for the Ukai dam. Afterwards we use these dam releases to drive a two dimensional flood model (CAESAR-Lisflood) of Surat that also considers tidal effects. Our flood model of Surat utilizes fine spatial resolution (30m) topography produced from an extensive differential global positioning system survey and measurements of river cross-sections. Within the city we have modelled scenarios that include extreme conditions with near maximum dam release levels (e.g. 1:250 year flood) and high tides. Results from all scenarios have been summarized into probabilistic flood risk maps for Surat. These maps are currently being integrated within the city disaster management plan for taking both mitigation and adaptation measures for different scenarios of flooding.

  8. Crossing historical and sedimentary archives to reconstruct an extreme flood event calendar in high alpine areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Arnaud, F.; Allignol, F.; Legaz, A.; Melo, A.

    2010-09-01

    Torrential flood hazard is expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, long time-series of climate and gauge data at high-elevation sites are too sparse to assess reliably recurrence times of such events in high mountain areas. Historical documents are an alternative which provide valuable information. However, historic archives are by nature subjective and variable in quality owing to hazard perception and vulnerability according to the banks land-use throughout time. To overcome these limits, natural archives may be used as complementary records. Among the various natural archives lake sediments have the advantage to be continuous records in which particular events are preserved such as earthquakes and especially flood events. Furthermore an objective magnitude of these events can be assessed from the thickness of noteworthy event-triggered deposits. However if the recognition of major event-triggered deposits can be simple, a high-resolution dating of these events is more difficult over the historical period due to a lack of chronological markers. In this paper, we present a sediment record study of a French high alpine lake where an important effort was undertaken to date precisely 56 flood events over the last three centuries from the use of historical archives. The caesium and the lead were measured to detect the fallouts of the Chernobyl accident (1986), the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests (1955-1963) and the use of leaded gasoline which culminated in the 70's. In parallel local and regional historical archives were going through in order to correlate the thickest sediment deposits triggered by major floods and earthquakes with their potential triggering historic events. Thus we were able to associate 12 historic flood and 4 earthquake dates to particular sediment deposits. The resulting flood calendar is very well-constrained thanks to 19 chronological marks over the last 270 years, i.e. one mark by 14 years. This method permitted so

  9. Simulating and Forecasting Flooding Events in the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghostine, Rabih; Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-05-01

    Metropolitan cities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as Jeddah and Riyadh, are more frequently experiencing flooding events caused by strong convective storms that produce intense precipitation over a short span of time. The flooding in the city of Jeddah in November 2009 was described by civil defense officials as the worst in 27 years. As of January 2010, 150 people were reported killed and more than 350 were missing. Another flooding event, less damaging but comparably spectacular, occurred one year later (Jan 2011) in Jeddah. Anticipating floods before they occur could minimize human and economic losses through the implementation of appropriate protection, provision and rescue plans. We have developed a coupled hydro-meteorological model for simulating and predicting flooding events in the city of Jeddah. We use the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model assimilating all available data in the Jeddah region for simulating the storm events in Jeddah. The resulting rain is then used on 10 minutes intervals to feed up an advanced numerical shallow water model that has been discretized on an unstructured grid using different numerical schemes based on the finite elements or finite volume techniques. The model was integrated on a high-resolution grid size varying between 0.5m within the streets of Jeddah and 500m outside the city. This contribution will present the flooding simulation system and the simulation results, focusing on the comparison of the different numerical schemes on the system performances in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

  10. Hydro-Meteocean Nature of some Extreme Flood Events and Some Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diez, J. Javier

    2013-04-01

    The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the paper analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event, as frequently, was due to a meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. This paper describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold drop phenomenon as a whole, on the generation of its rains and on the different natures and consequences of its flood. This paper explains also the ways in which the maritime weather in front of the basin and the consequent sea level govern floods on the lowest zone of any hydrographical basin, showing that event as a real

  11. Applications of flood depth from rapid post-event footprint generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, Naomi; Millinship, Ian

    2015-04-01

    Immediately following large flood events, an indication of the area flooded (i.e. the flood footprint) can be extremely useful for evaluating potential impacts on exposed property and infrastructure. Specifically, such information can help insurance companies estimate overall potential losses, deploy claims adjusters and ultimately assists the timely payment of due compensation to the public. Developing these datasets from remotely sensed products seems like an obvious choice. However, there are a number of important drawbacks which limit their utility in the context of flood risk studies. For example, external agencies have no control over the region that is surveyed, the time at which it is surveyed (which is important as the maximum extent would ideally be captured), and how freely accessible the outputs are. Moreover, the spatial resolution of these datasets can be low, and considerable uncertainties in the flood extents exist where dry surfaces give similar return signals to water. Most importantly of all, flood depths are required to estimate potential damages, but generally cannot be estimated from satellite imagery alone. In response to these problems, we have developed an alternative methodology for developing high-resolution footprints of maximum flood extent which do contain depth information. For a particular event, once reports of heavy rainfall are received, we begin monitoring real-time flow data and extracting peak values across affected areas. Next, using statistical extreme value analyses of historic flow records at the same measured locations, the return periods of the maximum event flow at each gauged location are estimated. These return periods are then interpolated along each river and matched to JBA's high-resolution hazard maps, which already exist for a series of design return periods. The extent and depth of flooding associated with the event flow is extracted from the hazard maps to create a flood footprint. Georeferenced ground, aerial

  12. Controls on Flood Event Frequencies Recorded in Stalagmites from Cave KNI-51, Australian Tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denniston, Rhawn; Gonzales, Angelique; Villarini, Gabriele; Polyak, Victor; Asmerom, Yemane; Wanamaker, Alan, Jr.; Lachniet, Matthew; Ummenhofer, Caroline; Cugley, John; Woods, David; Humphreys, William

    2016-04-01

    Extreme rainfall events in the central Australia tropics are largely driven by tropical cyclones and the Australian summer monsoon, both of which are sensitive to external forcing. To better understand baseline variability in extreme rainfall, we produced a record of cave flooding events spanning the last two millennia from a suite of precisely-dated and fast-growing aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51 (Denniston et al., 2015, PNAS, 112, 4576). During cave flooding events, sediment deposited on stalagmite surfaces becomes preserved within the stalagmite when floodwaters recede and stalagmite growth resumes. Ages of individual flood events are determined using growth models constructed from linear interpolation of 230Th-dated intervals of stalagmite carbonate (2 s.d. errors of ±1-30 yr in most cases). The robustness of this stalagmite flood record was tested, in part, by comparing accumulations of sediment layers in coeval stalagmites. Absolute values and temporal trends in flood recurrence rates were generally quite similar between stalagmites, arguing that each stalagmite was equally sensitive to flood events. We have now extended this cave flooding record back to 3600 yr BP using three additional stalagmites, each of which contains multi-decadal to centennial variations in flood frequency. The longest duration (1000 yr) and tallest (1.1m) of these stalagmites, KNI-51-7, is marked by a secular trend toward reduced flood occurrence rates, with the 30 yr running mean of floods/yr reaching 0.0, a value lower than in any other of the other nine samples analyzed in this study. However, KNI-51-N, which overlaps with KNI-51-7 for 300 yr, contains nearly identical sub-centennial variations to KNI-51-7 but KNI-51-N does not trend toward lower values. We argue that the decreasing average number of flood events with time in KNI-51-7 is a result of the stalagmite having grown above average flood height, thereby restricting its ability to record more frequent, smaller

  13. 3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

    SciTech Connect

    Prescott, Steven; Mandelli, Diego; Sampath, Ramprasad; Smith, Curtis; Lin, Linyu

    2015-09-01

    Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

  14. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  15. Coping with floods after the severe event in 2002: Recent changes in preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kienzler, Sarah; Pech, Ina; Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

    2014-05-01

    In the aftermath of the severe flood in August 2002, a number of political changes on flood policies in Germany and Europe were launched aiming at an improved risk communication and management. The question arises, whether flood-affected private households are now better prepared than in 2002. Therefore, computer-aided telephone interviews with private households that suffered property damage due to flooding in 2005, 2006, 2010 or 2011 were performed. The obtained data were also compared to results from a similar investigation carried out by Thieken et al. (2007 - Hydrol. Sci. J. 52(5): 1016-1037) after the flood in 2002. After 2002, a larger part of people knew that they are at risk of flooding and the level of private precaution increased considerably. Yet this knowledge did not necessarily result in actual building retrofitting or flood proofing measures. Accordingly, the benefits and cost savings of these actions still have to be communicated in a better way. Best precaution before the flood event in 2011 and 2006 might be explained by more flood experience and overall greater awareness of the residents. Early warning and emergency response were substantially influenced by the floods' characteristics. In contrast to flood-affected people in 2006 or 2011, people affected by floods in 2005 or 2010 had to deal with shorter lead times, less time to take emergency measures and consequently suffered higher losses. Therefore, it is important to further improve early warning systems and communication channels, particularly in hilly areas with fast onset flooding.

  16. Satellite images of the September 2013 flood event in Lyons, Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cole, Christopher J.; Friesen, Beverly A.; Wilds, Stanley; Noble, Suzanne; Warner, Harumi; Wilson, Earl M.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Special Applications Science Center (SASC) produced an image base map showing high-resolution remotely sensed data over Lyons, Colorado—a city that was severely affected by the flood event that occurred throughout much of the Colorado Front Range in September of 2013. The 0.5-meter WorldView-2 data products were created from imagery collected by DigitalGlobe on September 13 and September 24, 2013, during and following the flood event. The images shown on this map were created to support flood response efforts, specifically for use in determining damage assessment and mitigation decisions. The raw, unprocessed imagery were orthorectified and pan-sharpened to enhance mapping accuracy and spatial resolution, and reproduced onto a cartographic base map. These maps are intended to provide a snapshot representation of post-flood ground conditions, which may be useful to decisionmakers and the general public. The SASC also provided data processing and analysis support for other Colorado flood-affected areas by creating cartographic products, geo-corrected electro-optical and radar image mosaics, and GIS water cover files for use by the Colorado National Guard, the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the flood response community. All products for this International Charter event were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hdds.usgs.gov/hdds2/) for distribution.

  17. A Review on Flood Events for Kelantan River Watershed in Malaysia for Last Decade (2001-2010)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aminah Shakirah, J.; Sidek, L. M.; Hidayah, B.; Nazirul, M. Z.; Jajarmizadeh, M.; Ros, F. C.; Roseli, ZA

    2016-03-01

    Malaysia is located at tropical zone and high precipitation area that frequently hit by flood events when it is near monsoon season. This hydro hazard has been one of the main concerns for governmental and non-governmental sectors. High floods lead in financial damages and they are related with human’s life. Kelantan watershed is one of the challenging watersheds which mostly suffer from flood events and heavy rainfall events. Flood in Kelantan watershed is related with monetary misfortunes and lives. Clearly, flood have significant influence on various water sectors such water supply, agriculture, human health and ecosystems therefore study of this topic and presentation of available of any data and information can be a valuable baseline for upcoming research in vulnerable case studies. In this study, Kelantan watershed is selected because it is prone to flooding and urban areas classified as vulnerable districts. This overview is discussed on the last decade (2001-2010) floods events in Kelantan.

  18. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guhathakurta, P.; Sreejith, O. P.; Menon, P. A.

    2011-06-01

    The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.

  19. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland

    PubMed Central

    Baynes, Edwin R. C.; Attal, Mikaël; Kirstein, Linda A.; Dugmore, Andrew J.; Naylor, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (100 to 103 h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>103 y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic 3He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m3/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene. PMID:25675484

  20. Erosion during extreme flood events dominates Holocene canyon evolution in northeast Iceland.

    PubMed

    Baynes, Edwin R C; Attal, Mikaël; Niedermann, Samuel; Kirstein, Linda A; Dugmore, Andrew J; Naylor, Mark

    2015-02-24

    Extreme flood events have the potential to cause catastrophic landscape change in short periods of time (10(0) to 10(3) h). However, their impacts are rarely considered in studies of long-term landscape evolution (>10(3) y), because the mechanisms of erosion during such floods are poorly constrained. Here we use topographic analysis and cosmogenic (3)He surface exposure dating of fluvially sculpted surfaces to determine the impact of extreme flood events within the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon (northeast Iceland) and to constrain the mechanisms of bedrock erosion during these events. Surface exposure ages allow identification of three periods of intense canyon cutting about 9 ka ago, 5 ka ago, and 2 ka ago during which multiple large knickpoints retreated large distances (>2 km). During these events, a threshold flow depth was exceeded, leading to the toppling and transportation of basalt lava columns. Despite continuing and comparatively large-scale (500 m(3)/s) discharge of sediment-rich glacial meltwater, there is no evidence for a transition to an abrasion-dominated erosion regime since the last erosive event because the vertical knickpoints have not diffused over time. We provide a model for the evolution of the Jökulsárgljúfur canyon through the reconstruction of the river profile and canyon morphology at different stages over the last 9 ka and highlight the dominant role played by extreme flood events in the shaping of this landscape during the Holocene.

  1. Uncertainty estimation of water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes Andino, D. C.; Halldin, S.; Lundin, L.; Xu, C.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Simulation of elevated water surfaces provides a good way to understand the hydraulic mechanism of large flood events. In this study the one-dimensional HEC-RAS model for steady flow conditions together with the two-dimensional Lisflood-fp model were used to estimate the water level for the Mitch event in the river reaches at Tegucigalpa. Parameters uncertainty of the model was investigated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. Because of the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, no hydrometric measurements were taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of discharge and observed water levels were obtained in previous works by JICA and USGS. To overcome the problem of lacking direct hydrometric measurement data, uncertainty in the discharge was estimated. Both models could well define the value for channel roughness, though more dispersion resulted from the floodplain value. Analysis of the data interaction showed that there was a tradeoff between discharge at the outlet and floodplain roughness for the 1D model. The estimated discharge range at the outlet of the study area encompassed the value indirectly estimated by JICA, however the indirect method used by the USGS overestimated the value. If behavioral parameter sets can well reproduce water surface levels for past events such as Mitch, more reliable predictions for future events can be expected. The results acquired in this research will provide guidelines to deal with the problem of modeling past floods when no direct data was measured during the event, and to predict future large events taking uncertainty into account. The obtained range of the uncertain flood extension will be an outcome useful for decision makers.

  2. A Real-Time Web Services Hub to Improve Situation Awareness during Flash Flood Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salas, F. R.; Liu, F.; Maidment, D. R.; Hodges, B. R.

    2011-12-01

    The central Texas corridor is one of the most flash flood-prone regions in the United States. Over the years, flash floods have resulted in hundreds of flood fatalities and billions of dollars in property damage. In order to mitigate risk to residents and infrastructure during flood events, both citizens and emergency responders need to exhibit proactive behavior instead of reactive. Real-time and forecasted flood information is fairly limited and hard to come by at varying spatial scales. The University of Texas at Austin has collaborated with IBM Research-Austin and ESRI to build a distributed real-time flood information system through a framework that leverages large scale data management and distribution, Open Geospatial Consortium standardized web services, and smart map applications. Within this paradigm, observed precipitation data encoded in WaterML is ingested into HEC-HMS and then delivered to a high performance hydraulic routing software package developed by IBM that utilizes the latest advancements in VLSI design, numerical linear algebra and numerical integration techniques on contemporary multicore architecture to solve fully dynamic Saint Venant equations at both small and large scales. In this paper we present a real-time flood inundation map application that in conjunction with a web services Hub, seamlessly integrates hydrologic information available through both public and private data services, model services and mapping services. As a case study for this project, we demonstrate how this system has been implemented in the City of Austin, Texas.

  3. Flooding of the Great River during the Common Era: A Paleohydrological Record of High Magnitude Flood Events from the Central Mississippi River Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, J. W.; Munoz, S. E.; Gruley, K. E.; Massie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Streamflow characteristics are known to be sensitive to changes in climate, but few continuous records of flooding exist to evaluate the response of hydrological systems to centennial- and millennia-scale climate changes. Here, we present sedimentary records from two oxbow lakes (Horseshoe Lake and Grassy Lake, Illinois, USA) in the central Mississippi River valley (CMRV) that display abrupt shifts in sediment composition and particle-size consistent with deposition by floodwaters immediately following inundation of the floodplain. The sedimentary record at Horseshoe Lake begins ca. AD 100 and displays five major flood events, with four of these occurring after ca. AD 1100. Situated 200 km downstream, the record from Grassy Lake begins later, ca. AD 800, and also shows four major flood events after ca. AD 1100. An analysis of synchronicity using Bayesian age modelling software shows high likelihoods that the four overlapping flood events occurred at the same time, confirming that these events resulted from flooding of the Mississippi River. The most recent event we record at AD 1840 ± 50 corresponds to the AD 1844 flood, the largest flood by discharge (37 m3/s) measured by the gauging station at St. Louis, Missouri, indicating that our sedimentary records document high magnitude flood events. Together, our two sedimentary records show a major shift in the frequency of high magnitude flooding in the central Mississippi River at ca. AD 1100. From AD 100 - AD 1100, only one relatively subtle flood event is recorded, but from AD 1100 - AD 1900, four high magnitude floods deposited distinctive sediment at both sites. The period of infrequent flooding corresponds to a time of agricultural intensification and population growth in the CMRV, while the entire region was abandoned when flood frequency increased. The pronounced shift in flood frequency we observe in our records at ca. AD 1100 begins during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 950 - AD 1250), a period of

  4. Retrospective Analysis of Recent Flood Events With Persistent High Surface Runoff From Hydrological Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, S.; Hakeem, K. Abdul; Raju, P. V.; Rao, V. V.; Yadav, A.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2014-11-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widespread disasters in India, with an estimated 40Mha of land prone to this natural disaster (National Flood Commission, India). Significant loss of property, infrastructure, livestock, public utilities resulting in large economic losses due to floods are recurrent every year in many parts of India. Flood forecasting and early warning is widely recognized and adopted as non-structural measure to lower the damages caused by the flood events. Estimating the rainfall excess that results into excessive river flow is preliminary effort in riverine flood estimation. Flood forecasting models are in general, are event based and do not fully account for successive and persistent excessive surface runoff conditions. Successive high rainfall events result in saturated soil moisture conditions, favourable for high surface runoff conditions. The present study is to explore the usefulness of hydrological model derived surface runoff, running on continuous times-step, to relate to the occurrence of flood inundation due to persistent and successive high surface runoff conditions. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a macro-scale hydrological model, was used to simulate daily runoff at systematic grid level incorporating daily meteorological data and land cover data. VIC is a physically based, semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model that represents surface and subsurface hydrologic process on spatially distributed grid cell. It explicitly represents sub-grid heterogeneity in land cover classes, taking their phenological changes into account. In this study, the model was setup for entire India using geo-spatial data available from multiple sources (NRSC, NBSS&LUP, NOAA, and IMD) and was calibrated with river discharge data from CWC at selected river basins. Using the grid-wise surface runoff estimates from the model, an algorithm was developed through a set of thresholds of successive high runoff values in order to identify grids

  5. Processes and Geomorphological Impacts of an Extreme Flash Flood Event in SE Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooke, J.

    2015-12-01

    A major flash flood event took place on 28 September, 2012 in SE Spain, resulting in 10 fatalities and much damage to infrastructure regionally. The flood affected long-term monitoring sites in two catchments in which morphological changes and flow dynamics of these ephemeral channels were being measured. Thus detailed data on channel state prior to the flood were available. The flood event in the Nogalte catchment was extreme in its peak flow, rate of rise and unit runoff. The catchment has steep relief and much bare soil under almond groves, resulting in high sediment supply. The channel is confined in places, but mostly wide and braided, composed of loose gravel and occupying much of the valley floor. Flow was spatially continuous, with high connectivity throughout the catchment. The flood effects were net depositional in the monitored sites, with massive sedimentation on the channel bars. Vegetation was destroyed. Bank erosion and destruction of embankments took place in some locations. Hydraulic calculations indicate very high velocities, stream power and Froude numbers. Modelling and field evidence demonstrate extremely high sediment competence and sediment loadings. The influence of the event dynamics on processes and net outcomes is discussed. The impacts are compared with other events in this and neighbouring catchments. Overall, the event in the Nogalte did not alter the morphology markedly in spite of its extreme characteristics. It is suggested that these valley floors are adapted to this type of flash flood but that flows of such force and magnitude need to be allowed for in management in such an environment.

  6. Cosmo-geo-anthropo-logical history and political and deep future events in climate and life evolution conveyed by a physical/virtual installation at a scale of 1 mm per 100 years across Denmark during the COP15 climate summit meeting.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holm Jacobsen, Bo

    2010-05-01

    During the COP15 climate summit meeting a physical and virtual installation of time was performed at a linear scale of 1 mm per 100 years. The "track of time" was carefully anchored geographically so that highlights in time history coincided with landmarks of historical and cultural significance to both tourists and the local Danish population; with Big Bang at the site of early royal settlements from the Viking age (13.7 billion years ~ 137 km from now), Earth origin at Kronborg in Elsinore (4.6 bil. Years ~ 46 km), and fish go on land at The Little Mermaid (390 mil. Years ~ 3900 m). The venue of the COP15 meeting coincided with the position of severe global warming, driven by the steady solar constant increase, to be expected 600 million years into the future. Nested in this grand track of time were the Quaternary ice-ages (2.6 mil. years ~ 26 m), human origin as species (100,000 years ~ 1 m), human history (< 10,000 years ~ 100 mm), personal life and the scope of political consequences of voting action (100 years ~ 1 mm). This installation of time involved several media. Highlights in time history and future were installed as a kml-file so that the convenient user interface of Google Earth could be utilized to provide both overview of time and understanding of details and proportions events antropo-geo-cosmo-history. Each Google Earth marker-balloon gave short explanations and linked to "on location" video-narratives. A classical printed text-folder was prepared as a tour guide for those who wanted to actually walk the Phanerozoic (~5 km). Credit-card-shaped graphs of temperature, CO2 and sealevel development and scenarios were prepared to scale for the period 4000 BP to 1000 years into the future. Along the time line from "Fish on land" to the present 3900 chalk marks were placed on the street surface, one for every metre = time span of Man as a species so far. A "NowGate" marking the present was implemented physically as a door frame, where citizens could meet

  7. Reconstruction of flood events based on documentary data and transnational flood risk analysis of the Upper Rhine and its French and German tributaries since AD 1480

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Himmelsbach, I.; Glaser, R.; Schoenbein, J.; Riemann, D.; Martin, B.

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents the long-term analysis of flood occurrence along the southern part of the Upper Rhine River system and of 14 of its tributaries in France and Germany covering the period starting from 1480 BC. Special focus is given on the temporal and spatial variations of flood events and their underlying meteorological causes over time. Examples are presented of how long-term information about flood events and knowledge about the historical aspect of flood protection in a given area can help to improve the understanding of risk analysis and therefor transnational risk management. Within this context, special focus is given to flood vulnerability while comparing selected historical and modern extreme events, establishing a common evaluation scheme. The transnational aspect becomes especially evident analyzing the tributaries: on this scale, flood protection developed impressively different on the French and German sides. We argue that comparing high technological standards of flood protection, which were initiated by the dukes of Baden on the German side starting in the early 19th century, misled people to the common belief that the mechanical means of flood protection like dams and barrages can guarantee the security from floods and their impacts. This lead to widespread settlements and the establishment of infrastructure as well as modern industries in potentially unsafe areas until today. The legal status in Alsace on the French side of the Rhine did not allow for continuous flood protection measurements, leading to a constant - and probably at last annoying - reminder that the floodplains are a potentially unsafe place to be. From a modern perspective of flood risk management, this leads to a significant lower aggregation of value in the floodplains of the small rivers in Alsace compared to those on the Baden side - an interesting fact - especially if the modern European Flood directive is taken into account.

  8. Recognition of maximum flooding events in mixed siliciclastic-carbonate systems: Key to global chronostratigraphic correlation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mancini, E.A.; Tew, B.H.

    1997-01-01

    The maximum flooding event within a depositional sequence is an important datum for correlation because it represents a virtually synchronous horizon. This event is typically recognized by a distinctive physical surface and/or a significant change in microfossil assemblages (relative fossil abundance peaks) in siliciclastic deposits from shoreline to continental slope environments in a passive margin setting. Recognition of maximum flooding events in mixed siliciclastic-carbonate sediments is more complicated because the entire section usually represents deposition in continental shelf environments with varying rates of biologic and carbonate productivity versus siliciclastic influx. Hence, this event cannot be consistently identified simply by relative fossil abundance peaks. Factors such as siliciclastic input, carbonate productivity, sediment accumulation rates, and paleoenvironmental conditions dramatically affect the relative abundances of microfossils. Failure to recognize these complications can lead to a sequence stratigraphic interpretation that substantially overestimates the number of depositional sequences of 1 to 10 m.y. duration.

  9. Uncertainty estimation of simulated water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes Andino, Diana Carolina; Halldin, Sven; Keith, Beven; Chong-Yu, Xu

    2013-04-01

    Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Due to the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, hydrometric measurements were not taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of the discharge were obtained by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and post-event surveyed high water marks were obtained by the Japan International Cooperation agency (JICA). This work proposes a methodology to simulate the water level during the Mitch event when the available data is associated with large uncertainty. The results of the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP will be evaluated using the Generalized Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. The main challenge in the proposed methodology is to formulate an approach to evaluate the model results when there are large uncertainties coming from both the model parameters and the evaluation data.

  10. Rapid formation of a modern bedrock canyon by a single flood event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamb, Michael P.; Fonstad, Mark A.

    2010-07-01

    Deep river canyons are thought to form slowly over geological time (see, for example, ref. 1), cut by moderate flows that reoccur every few years. In contrast, some of the most spectacular canyons on Earth and Mars were probably carved rapidly during ancient megaflood events. Quantification of the flood discharge, duration and erosion mechanics that operated during such events is hampered because we lack modern analogues. Canyon Lake Gorge, Texas, was carved in 2002 during a single catastrophic flood. The event offers a rare opportunity to analyse canyon formation and test palaeo-hydraulic-reconstruction techniques under known topographic and hydraulic conditions. Here we use digital topographic models and visible/near-infrared aerial images from before and after the flood, discharge measured during the event, field measurements and sediment-transport modelling to show that the flood moved metre-sized boulders, excavated ~7m of limestone and transformed a soil-mantled valley into a bedrock canyon in just ~3days. We find that canyon morphology is strongly dependent on rock type: plucking of limestone blocks produced waterfalls, inner channels and bedrock strath terraces, whereas abrasion of cemented alluvium sculpted walls, plunge pools and streamlined islands. Canyon formation was so rapid that erosion might have been limited by the ability of the flow to transport sediment. We suggest that our results might improve hydraulic reconstructions of similar megafloods on Earth and Mars.

  11. Effects of sea surface temperature anomaly on flooding events in Hunan province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Xinjia; Wang, Ming

    2016-04-01

    This study investigated the effect of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on flood-season precipitation in Hunan Province (the main grain-producing area in China) and change trend of the related flooding events. Based on the observation data of flood seasons in 44 stations of Hunan province from 1970-2013 and the sea surface temperature (SST) dataset from the Met Office Hadley Center, the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, power spectrum analysis and correlation analytical method have been conducted to identify the key time and marine regions which influence flood-season rainfall distribution. According to these analyses, two main spatial patterns of precipitation have been observed. The first and remarkable pattern is generally distributed uniformly throughout the region and is characterized by a 2-3-year and 20-23-year periods. The decadal variability has a negative correlation with the summer SSTA in the Indian Ocean near the equator, while the interannual variability is associated with the previous autumn and winter SSTA in the eastern Pacific. The second pattern illustrates dry-wet difference, indicating a north-to-south opposite, in a 3-year periods. The key area for influencing this mode is distributed in the Equator Pacific especially in the previous autumn and winter (known as ENSO). Furthermore, based on the EOF results of precipitation, we introduced the historical flooding event records of Hunan province and developed the spatial distribution maps and probability density curves for the direct economic losses in the years of anomaly and normal rainfall. The results reveal that the anomaly years suffer more serious losses and there is a corresponding relationship between north-to-south opposite precipitation mode and regional economic loss differences. With the function of illustrating the variation trend of hazards and the critical influence factor, these results are the data foundation for flood risk assessment. It can be used as a

  12. Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

    2016-12-01

    Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

  13. Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China.

    PubMed

    Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

    2016-12-01

    Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/10(5) and 0.127/10(5) for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/10(5) and 0.399/10(5). Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

  14. Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series. On the role of flood events as triggers of epidemic outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donges, J. F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J. F.; Donner, R. V.

    2016-05-01

    Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.

  15. National water summary 1988-89: Hydrologic events and floods and droughts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paulson, Richard W.; Chase, Edith B.; Roberts, Robert S.; Moody, David W.

    1991-01-01

    National Water Summary 1988-89 - Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts documents the occurrence in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands of two types of extreme hydrologic events floods and droughts on the basis of analysis of stream-discharge data. This report details, for the first time, the areal extent of the most notable floods and droughts in each State, portrays their severity in terms of annual peak discharge for floods and annual departure from long-term discharge for droughts for selected stream-gaging stations, and estimates how frequently floods and droughts of such severity can be expected to recur. These two types of extreme hydrologic events are very different in their duration, cause, areal extent, and effect on human activities. Floods are short-term phenomena that typically last only a few hours to a few days and are associated with weather systems that produce unusually large amounts of rain or that cause snow to melt quickly. The large amount of runoff produced causes rivers to overflow their banks and, thus, is highly dangerous to human life and property. In contrast, droughts are long-term phenomena that typically persist for months to a decade or more and are associated with the absence of precipitation producing weather. They affect large geographic areas that can be statewide, regional, or even nationwide in extent. Droughts can cause great economic hardship and even loss of life in developing countries, although the loss of life results almost wholly from diminished water supplies and catastrophic crop failures rather than from the direct and obvious peril to human life that is common to floods. The following discussion is an overview of the three parts of this 1988-89 National Water Summary "Hydrologic Conditions and Water-Related Events, Water Years 1988-89," "Hydrologic Perspectives on Water Issues," and "State Summaries of Floods and Droughts." Background information on sources of atmospheric moisture to the

  16. An efficient hybrid causative event-based approach for deriving the annual flood frequency distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thyer, Mark; Li, Jing; Lambert, Martin; Kuczera, George; Metcalfe, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    Flood extremes are driven by highly variable and complex climatic and hydrological processes. Derived flood frequency methods are often used to predict the flood frequency distribution (FFD) because they can provide predictions in ungauged catchments and evaluate the impact of land-use or climate change. This study presents recent work on development of a new derived flood frequency method called the hybrid causative events (HCE) approach. The advantage of the HCE approach is that it combines the accuracy of the continuous simulation approach with the computational efficiency of the event-based approaches. Derived flood frequency methods, can be divided into two classes. Event-based approaches provide fast estimation, but can also lead to prediction bias due to limitations of inherent assumptions required for obtaining input information (rainfall and catchment wetness) for events that cause large floods. Continuous simulation produces more accurate predictions, however, at the cost of massive computational time. The HCE method uses a short continuous simulation to provide inputs for a rainfall-runoff model running in an event-based fashion. A proof-of-concept pilot study that the HCE produces estimates of the flood frequency distribution with similar accuracy as the continuous simulation, but with dramatically reduced computation time. Recent work incorporated seasonality into the HCE approach and evaluated with a more realistic set of eight sites from a wide range of climate zones, typical of Australia, using a virtual catchment approach. The seasonal hybrid-CE provided accurate predictions of the FFD for all sites. Comparison with the existing non-seasonal hybrid-CE showed that for some sites the non-seasonal hybrid-CE significantly over-predicted the FFD. Analysis of the underlying cause of whether a site had a high, low or no need to use seasonality found it was based on a combination of reasons, that were difficult to predict apriori. Hence it is recommended

  17. Long-term strategies of climate change adaptation to manage flooding events in urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pouget, Laurent; Russo, Beniamino; Redaño, Angel; Ribalaygua, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Heavy and sudden rainfalls regularly affect the Mediterranean area, so a great number of people and buildings are exposed to the risk of rain-generated floods. Climate change is expected to modify this risk and, in the case that extreme rainfalls increase in frequencies and intensity, this could result in important damages, particularly in urban areas. This paper presents a project that aims to determine adaptation strategies to future flood risks in urban areas. It has been developed by a panel of water companies (R+i Alliance funding), and includes the evaluation of the climate change impact on the extreme rainfall, the use of innovative modelling tools to accurately forecast the flood risk and, finally, the definition of a pro-active and long-term planning against floods. This methodology has been applied in the city of Barcelona. Current climate models give some projections that are not directly applicable for flood risk studies, either because they do not have an adequate spatial and temporal resolution, or because they do not consider some important local factors, such as orography. These points have been considered within the project, when developing the design storms corresponding to future climatic conditions (e.g. years 2030 or 2050). The methodology uses statistical downscaling techniques based on global climate models predictions, including corrections for extreme events and convective storms, as well as temporal downscaling based on historical observations. The design storms created are used in combination with the predictions of sea level rise and land use evolutions to determine the future risk of flooding in the area of study. Once the boundary conditions are known, an accurate flood hazard assessment is done. It requires a local knowledge of the flow parameters in the whole analyzed domain. In urban catchments, in order to fulfill this requirement, powerful hydrological and hydraulic tools and detailed topographic data represent the unique way for

  18. On the dynamics of synoptic scale cyclones associated with flood events in Crete

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flocas, Helena; Katavoutas, George; Tsanis, Ioannis; Iordanidou, Vasiliki

    2015-04-01

    Flood events in the Mediterranean are frequently linked to synoptic scale cyclones, although topographical or anthropogenic factors can play important role. The knowledge of the vertical profile and dynamics of these cyclones can serve as a reliable early flood warning system that can further help in hazard mitigation and risk management planning. Crete is the second largest island in the eastern Mediterranean region, being characterized by high precipitation amounts during winter, frequently causing flood events. The objective of this study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms at the upper and lower levels responsible for the generation of these events, according to their origin domain. The flooding events were recorded for a period of almost 20 years. The surface cyclones are identified with the aid of MS scheme that was appropriately modified and extensively employed in the Mediterranean region in previous studies. Then, the software VTS, specially developed for the Mediterranean cyclones, was employed to investigate the vertical extension, slope and dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the surface cyclones. Composite maps of dynamic/thermodynamic parameters, such as potential vorticity, temperature advection, divergence, surface fluxes were then constructed before and during the time of the flood. The dataset includes 6-hourly surface and isobaric analyses on a 0.5° x 0.5° regular latitude-longitude grid, as derived from the ERA-INTERIM Reanalysis of the ECMWF. It was found that cyclones associated with flood events in Crete mainly generate over northern Africa or southern eastern Mediterranean region and experience their minimum pressure over Crete or southwestern Greece. About 84% of the cyclones extend up to 500hPa, demonstrating that they are well vertically well-organized systems. The vast majority (almost 84%) of the surface cyclones attains their minimum pressure when their 500 hpa counterparts are located in the NW or SW, confirming

  19. Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities.

    PubMed

    Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M; Plater, Andrew J

    2015-01-01

    Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to "surge alone" event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as "brick course" maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.

  20. Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities

    PubMed Central

    Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M.; Plater, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community. PMID:25710497

  1. Application of a Coupled WRF-Hydro Model for Extreme Flood Events in the Mediterranean Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fredj, Erick; Givati, Amir

    2015-04-01

    More accurate simulation of precipitation and streamflow is a challenge that can be addressed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the hydrological model coupling extension package (WRF-Hydro).This is demonstrated for the country of Israel and surrounding regions. Simulations from the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system were verified against measurements from rain gauges and hydrometric stations in the domain for the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters (wet seasons). These periods were characterized by many punctuated hydrometeorological and hydroclimatic events, including both severe drought and extreme floods events. The WRF model simulations were initialized with 0.5 degree NOAA/NCEP GFS model data. The model domain was set up with 3 domains, up to 3km grid spacing resolution. The model configuration used here constitutes a fully distributed, 3-dimensional, variably-saturated surface and subsurface flow model. Application of terrain routing and, subsequently, channel and reservoir routing functions, to the uni-dimensional NOAA land surface model was motivated by the need to account for increased complexity in land surface states and fluxes and to provide a more physically-realistic conceptualization of terrestrial hydrologic processes. The simulation results indicated a good agreement with actual peak discharges for extreme flood events and for full hydrographs. Specifically the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro model as configured in this study shows improvement in simulated precipitation over one way WRF precipitation simulations. The correlation between the observed and the simulated precipitation using the fully coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system was higher than the standalone WRF model, especially for convective precipitation events that affect arid regions in the domain. The results suggest that the coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro system has potential for flood forecasting and flood warning purposes at 0-72 hour lead times for large cool season storm

  2. Rapid Formation of a Modern Bedrock Canyon by a Single Flood Event (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamb, M. P.; Fonstad, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    Although ancient megafloods have carved some of the most spectacular canyons on Earth and Mars, quantifying flood discharge, duration and erosion mechanics is hampered because we lack modern analogs. Canyon Lake Gorge, Texas, was carved in 2002 during a single catastrophic flood event and offers a rare opportunity to analyze canyon formation and test paleo-hydraulic-reconstruction techniques under known topographic and hydraulic conditions. Here we use topography and imagery from before and after the flood, discharge measured during the event, field measurements, and sediment-transport modeling to show that the flood moved meter-sized boulders, excavated ~7 m of rock, and transformed a soil-mantled valley into a bedrock canyon in ~ 3 days. Canyon morphology is strongly dependent on rock type where plucking of limestone blocks produced waterfalls, inner channels and strath terraces, and abrasion of cemented alluvium sculpted walls, plunge pools and streamlined islands. Canyon formation was so rapid that erosion might have been limited by the ability of the flow to transport sediment, which greatly simplifies modeling and may improve hydraulic reconstructions of other megafloods on Earth and Mars.

  3. A Flood Detection and Mapping Algorithm Using MODIS Data: Assessment of Extreme Flooding Events in Eastern Ganga Plains (2000-2015)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprigg, W. A.; Patel, S.; Prasad, A. K.; Sarkar, B. C.

    2015-12-01

    Flood, a hydrological extreme, is a dominant and frequent phenomena over the eastern Ganga Plains comprising of alluvial plains of Bihar and adjoining Nepal Himalaya. Flood affects major parts of Bihar where Gandak and Koshi are the major tributaries of Ganga River causing inundation during the monsoon season. Due to heavy rainfall in the Eastern Himalaya and adjoining regions, the river discharge increases several folds causing severe flood in plains. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived data at 250 m resolution (year 2000-2015) have been used to identify flood water and calculate daily water fraction (water cover) using model adopted from previous studies. During the monsoon season, cloud cover in daily images is found to be extremely high leading to lot of gaps in the form of missing data. To account for missing grid cell values, an adaptive polynomial filter (Savitzky-Golay) have been used to fit the time series of daily data for each grid cell. The missing values in daily images have been filled with calculated values to create daily time series of flood water. Landsat data at 30 m grid resolution have been used to verify flood water detection algorithm used in this study. Time series analysis of satellite derived data reveal a strong spatial and temporal variation in the extent, duration and frequency (inter-annual and intra-annual) of flooding event over the study region. Statistical analysis of IDF (intensity, duration, and frequency) and trend have been carried out to identify regions which show greater flood risk. Reoccurrence interval and length of flooding event in the study region is found to be high compared to other river basins in the western India. Based on the historical occurrence of flood, the study area have been classified into different flood hazard zones where flood mitigation and management need to be prioritized. MODIS based flood monitoring and mapping model used in this study can be used for monitoring and

  4. Ross River Virus Disease Activity Associated With Naturally Occurring Nontidal Flood Events in Australia: A Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Tall, Julie A; Gatton, Michelle L; Tong, Shilu

    2014-11-01

    Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring nontidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This article critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring nontidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between nontidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be used more effectively and efficiently.

  5. Analysis of a Mesoscale Model for Depicting Rain-on-Snow Flooding Events in Mountainous Terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morehead, M. D.; Dawson, P.; Seyfried, M. S.

    2002-12-01

    Cold season rain-on-snow events are one of the major sources of flooding in the Pacific Northwest. Accurate modeling of the atmospheric fields forcing these events is leading to a better understanding of the atmospheric conditions behind these events and to better prediction of these floods. A mesoscale atmospheric model (RAMS) with nested grids is being used for high resolution simulations of winter precipitation and other climate variables in the Owyhee mountains of southwestern Idaho. The Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) contains a dense array of meteorologic and hydrologic instrumentation with which to test the spatial and temporal hydrologic and atmospheric models. The large number of precipitation gauges in the RCEW cover a wide range of precipitation zones found in mountainous terrain. These gauges allow for a thorough assessment of the areal distribution and timing of modeled versus measured precipitation and temperature. A comparison of the modeled and measured data from two winter storms associated with rain-on-snow events shows close agreement in the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation, temperature and other variables. The model correctly predicts the spatial distribution of precipitation and the temporal conversion from snow to rain-on-snow in the lower elevations of the watershed. The modeled precipitation is typically slightly lower than the measured values. Some of the high frequency (hourly) weather variability was not captured by the model, presumably due to lack of sufficient data in the initialization process. The longer term goal is to develop a tool for generating detailed weather information for winter time hydrologic studies including cold season flooding processes and to better understand the processes controlling winter flooding.

  6. Impact of flood events on macrobenthic community structure on an intertidal flat developing in the Ohta River Estuary.

    PubMed

    Nishijima, Wataru; Nakano, Yoichi; Nakai, Satoshi; Okuda, Tetsuji; Imai, Tsuyoshi; Okada, Mitsumasa

    2013-09-15

    We investigated the effects of river floods on the macrobenthic community of the intertidal flat in the Ohta River Estuary, Japan, from 2005 to 2010. Sediment erosion by flood events ranged from about 2-3 cm to 12 cm, and the salinity dropped to 0‰ even during low-intensity flood events. Cluster analysis of the macrobenthic population showed that the community structure was controlled by the physical disturbance, decreased salinity, or both. The opportunistic polychaete Capitella sp. was the most dominant species in all clusters, and populations of the long-lived polychaete Ceratonereis erythraeensis increased in years with stable flow and almost disappeared in years with intense flooding. The bivalve Musculista senhousia was also an important opportunistic species that formed mats in summer of the stable years and influenced the structure of the macrobenthic community. Our results demonstrate the substantial effects of flood events on the macrobenthic community structure.

  7. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird.

    PubMed

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C; Hilton, Geoff M

    2016-06-27

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world's biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013-14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012-2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013-14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013-14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability.

  8. Ecological Responses to Extreme Flooding Events: A Case Study with a Reintroduced Bird

    PubMed Central

    Soriano-Redondo, Andrea; Bearhop, Stuart; Cleasby, Ian R.; Lock, Leigh; Votier, Stephen C.; Hilton, Geoff M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years numerous studies have documented the effects of a changing climate on the world’s biodiversity. Although extreme weather events are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity and are challenging to organisms, there are few quantitative observations on the survival, behaviour and energy expenditure of animals during such events. We provide the first data on activity and energy expenditure of birds, Eurasian cranes Grus grus, during the winter of 2013–14, which saw the most severe floods in SW England in over 200 years. We fitted 23 cranes with telemetry devices and used remote sensing data to model flood dynamics during three consecutive winters (2012–2015). Our results show that during the acute phase of the 2013–14 floods, potential feeding areas decreased dramatically and cranes restricted their activity to a small partially unflooded area. They also increased energy expenditure (+15%) as they increased their foraging activity and reduced resting time. Survival did not decline in 2013–14, indicating that even though extreme climatic events strongly affected time-energy budgets, behavioural plasticity alleviated any potential impact on fitness. However under climate change scenarios such challenges may not be sustainable over longer periods and potentially could increase species vulnerability. PMID:27345214

  9. Physiologically-based toxicokinetic models help identifying the key factors affecting contaminant uptake during flood events.

    PubMed

    Brinkmann, Markus; Eichbaum, Kathrin; Kammann, Ulrike; Hudjetz, Sebastian; Cofalla, Catrina; Buchinger, Sebastian; Reifferscheid, Georg; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Preuss, Thomas; Hollert, Henner

    2014-07-01

    As a consequence of global climate change, we will be likely facing an increasing frequency and intensity of flood events. Thus, the ecotoxicological relevance of sediment re-suspension is of growing concern. It is vital to understand contaminant uptake from suspended sediments and relate it to effects in aquatic biota. Here we report on a computational study that utilizes a physiologically based toxicokinetic model to predict uptake, metabolism and excretion of sediment-borne pyrene in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). To this end, data from two experimental studies were compared with the model predictions: (a) batch re-suspension experiments with constant concentration of suspended particulate matter at two different temperatures (12 and 24°C), and (b) simulated flood events in an annular flume. The model predicted both the final concentrations and the kinetics of 1-hydroxypyrene secretion into the gall bladder of exposed rainbow trout well. We were able to show that exhaustive exercise during exposure in simulated flood events can lead to increased levels of biliary metabolites and identified cardiac output and effective respiratory volume as the two most important factors for contaminant uptake. The results of our study clearly demonstrate the relevance and the necessity to investigate uptake of contaminants from suspended sediments under realistic exposure scenarios.

  10. Tracing sources of sediments during flood events by Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier-Transform (DRIFT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Poulenard, J.; Legout, C.; Némery, J.; Bramorski, J.; Navratil, O.; Estèves, M.; Fanget, B.; Perrette, Y.

    2009-04-01

    The identification and the quantification of the source of the suspended sediment transported by a river is becoming an increasingly important requirement in sediment investigations. An increasing number of works used "fingerprinting" to identify and trace one or more distinctive characteristics of the source material that can be recognized in the final sediment. As sediment fingerprints are often a combination of two or more characteristics, fingerprinting frequently requires a multi-tracer, composite or multi-proxy approach. The most commonly used tracers are radionuclides (137Cs, unsupported 210Pb, 7Be), chemical extracts of reactive elements and total chemical analyses. However, current sediment fingerprinting techniques are very selective and they are not always practical for catchment area monitoring because of their high cost (time and money) and because of the complexity of the analyses required. As consequences such approach is rarely used to compute the sources of sediment during flood events. Hence, the challenge is to develop methods (experimental and instrumental) that can be applied to large numbers of samples, that involve minimal sample preparation and that provide an acceptable level of sediment source selectivity. In the framework of the STREAMS project aiming at understanding and modelling the sediment transport in mountainous areas (Bleone River, Southern French Alps), we study the potential use of a combination of Diffuse Reflectance Infra-red Fourier Transform (DRIFT) and multivariate analysis (Partial Least Squared) to quantify the main sources of suspended sediments during flood events. The objectives of this study were i) to identify the sediment sources areas in the Galabre sub-catchment (20 km²) for various rainstorm events and ii) to quantify the contribution of each sediment source in the suspended sediment flux at the outlet of the sub-catchment during floods. A set of 38 soil samples were collected on the Galabre sub-catchment in

  11. A catastrophic meltwater flood event and the formation of the Hudson Shelf Valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thieler, E.R.; Butman, B.; Schwab, W.C.; Allison, M.A.; Driscoll, N.W.; Donnelly, J.P.; Uchupi, E.

    2007-01-01

    The Hudson Shelf Valley (HSV) is the largest physiographic feature on the U.S. mid-Atlantic continental shelf. The 150-km long valley is the submerged extension of the ancestral Hudson River Valley that connects to the Hudson Canyon. Unlike other incised valleys on the mid-Atlantic shelf, it has not been infilled with sediment during the Holocene. Analyses of multibeam bathymetry, acoustic backscatter intensity, and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for a catastrophic meltwater flood event that formed the modern HSV. The valley and its distal deposits record a discrete flood event that carved 15-m high banks, formed a 120-km2 field of 3- to 6-m high bedforms, and deposited a subaqueous delta on the outer shelf. The HSV is inferred to have been carved initially by precipitation and meltwater runoff during the advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and later by the drainage of early proglacial lakes through stable spillways. A flood resulting from the failure of the terminal moraine dam at the Narrows between Staten Island and Long Island, New York, allowed glacial lakes in the Hudson and Ontario basins to drain across the continental shelf. Water level changes in the Hudson River basin associated with the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Iroquois, Vermont, and Albany around 11,450 14C year BP (∼ 13,350 cal BP) may have precipitated dam failure at the Narrows. This 3200 km3 discharge of freshwater entered the North Atlantic proximal to the Gulf Stream and may have affected thermohaline circulation at the onset of the Intra-Allerød Cold Period. Based on bedform characteristics and fluvial morphology in the HSV, the maximum freshwater flux during the flood event is estimated to be ∼ 0.46 Sv for a duration of ∼ 80 days.

  12. Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

    2016-04-01

    This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

  13. AP1000{sup R} design robustness against extreme external events - Seismic, flooding, and aircraft crash

    SciTech Connect

    Pfister, A.; Goossen, C.; Coogler, K.; Gorgemans, J.

    2012-07-01

    Both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) require existing and new nuclear power plants to conduct plant assessments to demonstrate the unit's ability to withstand external hazards. The events that occurred at the Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear power station demonstrated the importance of designing a nuclear power plant with the ability to protect the plant against extreme external hazards. The innovative design of the AP1000{sup R} nuclear power plant provides unparalleled protection against catastrophic external events which can lead to extensive infrastructure damage and place the plant in an extended abnormal situation. The AP1000 plant is an 1100-MWe pressurized water reactor with passive safety features and extensive plant simplifications that enhance construction, operation, maintenance and safety. The plant's compact safety related footprint and protection provided by its robust nuclear island structures prevent significant damage to systems, structures, and components required to safely shutdown the plant and maintain core and spent fuel pool cooling and containment integrity following extreme external events. The AP1000 nuclear power plant has been extensively analyzed and reviewed to demonstrate that it's nuclear island design and plant layout provide protection against both design basis and extreme beyond design basis external hazards such as extreme seismic events, external flooding that exceeds the maximum probable flood limit, and malicious aircraft impact. The AP1000 nuclear power plant uses fail safe passive features to mitigate design basis accidents. The passive safety systems are designed to function without safety-grade support systems (such as AC power, component cooling water, service water, compressed air or HVAC). The plant has been designed to protect systems, structures, and components critical to placing the reactor in a safe shutdown condition within the steel containment vessel

  14. Simulation of Flood Profiles for Fivemile Creek at Tarrant, Alabama, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, K.G.; Hedgecock, T.S.

    2007-01-01

    A one-dimensional step-backwater model was used to simulate flooding conditions for Fivemile Creek at Tarrant, Alabama. The 100-year flood stage published in the current flood insurance study for Tarrant by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was significantly exceeded by the March 2000 and May 2003 floods in this area. A peak flow of 14,100 cubic feet per second was computed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the May 2003 flood in the vicinity of Lawson Road. Using this estimated peak flow, flood-plain surveys with associated roughness coefficients, and the surveyed high-water profile for the May 2003 flood, a flow model was calibrated to closely match this known event. The calibrated model was then used to simulate flooding for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval floods. The results indicate that for the 100-year recurrence interval, the flood profile is about 2.5 feet higher, on average, than the profile published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The absolute maximum and minimum difference is 6.80 feet and 0.67 foot, respectively. All water-surface elevations computed for the 100-year flood are higher than those published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, except for cross section H. The results of this study provide the community with flood-profile information that can be used for existing flood-plain mitigation, future development, and safety plans for the city.

  15. Estimated 100-year peak flows and flow volumes in the Big Lost River and Birch Creek at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Kjelstrom, L.C.; Berenbrock, C.

    1996-12-31

    The purpose of this report is to provide estimates of the 100-year peak flows and flow volumes that could enter the INEL area from the Big Lost River and Brich Creek are needed as input data for models that will be used to delineate the extent of the 100-year flood plain at the INEL. The methods, procedures and assumptions used to estimate the 100-year peak flows and flow volumes are described in this report.

  16. Looking for the factors involved in the evolution of flood events in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raül; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Cortès, Maria; del Moral, Anna; Rigo, Tomeu

    2016-04-01

    This contribution comprises the analysis of the evolution of flood events in the Northwestern Mediterranean area, their trends and the possible associated factors related with vulnerability and hazard changes, in basis to the information collected in the INUNGAMA and FLOODHYMEX databases, and in the present Spanish project HOPE. The contribution is also focused on the characterisation of the degree of the convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period, in the Northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula, for which some precipitation series at subdaily resolution exist. The trend analysis shows a little increase in flood events although no trend has been detected in extreme values of precipitation at daily scale, neither in the associated ETCCDI index. This result could point to a vulnerability and exposure increase or changes in the land uses. This flood event increase is particularly important in summer, when this events are mainly flash-floods produced by short and local convective phenomena. A summer increase of the convective contribution concentrated in less torrential events has been found in some parts of the region that could explain, partially, this positive trend on flash flood events. Our contribution also explores the evolution of the floods impact and the role of the measures of resilience.

  17. Influence of climate variability and urban areas on the flood events in Bari (Apulia, southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lonigro, Teresa; Polemio, Maurizio

    2014-05-01

    The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous phenomena, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity), causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanization, where the infiltration capability is limited by buildings and where the vulnerability is higher than other areas. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability and urban development on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data, very important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature), useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time series approach is completed by tools to analyse simultaneously all data types. The study of land use variations, with a special emphasis on the urban areas, is important to understand how the modifications occurred in the territory, especially in terms of vulnerability, could influence the occurrence of DHEs. The methodology can be applied simultaneously to floods and landslides and was tested considering the municipality of Bari (southern Italy), particularly affected by flood events. Since the climate trend (decreasing trend of rainfall and

  18. Characterization of the Temporal Clustering of Flood Events across the Central United States in terms of Climate States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele; Jones, Michael; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    The central United States is a region of the country that has been plagued by frequent catastrophic flooding (e.g., flood events of 1993, 2008, 2013, and 2014), with large economic and social repercussions (e.g., fatalities, agricultural losses, flood losses, water quality issues). The goal of this study is to examine whether it is possible to describe the occurrence of flood events at the sub-seasonal scale in terms of variations in the climate system. Daily streamflow time series from 774 USGS stream gage stations over the central United States (defined here to include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan) with a record of at least 50 years and ending no earlier than 2011 are used for this study. We use a peak-over-threshold (POT) approach to identify flood peaks so that we have, on average two events per year. We model the occurrence/non-occurrence of a flood event over time using regression models based on Cox processes. Cox processes are widely used in biostatistics and can be viewed as a generalization of Poisson processes. Rather than assuming that flood events occur independently of the occurrence of previous events (as in Poisson processes), Cox processes allow us to account for the potential presence of temporal clustering, which manifests itself in an alternation of quiet and active periods. Here we model the occurrence/non-occurrence of flood events using two climate indices as climate time-varying covariates: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA). The results of this study show that NAO and/or PNA can explain the temporal clustering in flood occurrences in over 90% of the stream gage stations we considered. Analyses of the sensitivity of the results to different average numbers of flood events per year (from one to five) are also performed and lead to the same conclusions. The findings of this work

  19. Recipe for a Flash Flood: Identifying Meteorological and Landscape Hydrological Conditions of Flash Flood Events in the Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marjerison, R.; Walter, T.; Jessup, S.; Colucci, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Flash floods are a serious concern in the Northeast US because they often result in property damage, injuries, or loss of life. The landscape hydrological and meteorological conditions that will result in a flash flood are difficult to quantify. In this study we aim to characterize the watersheds of a sample of flash floods in the Northeast US. We intend to show that in the Northeast US, different combinations of space- and time-variant watershed characteristics will lead to flooding under different precipitation profiles. A better understanding of the landscape hydrological factors (e.g. topography, soil characteristics) in flood-impacted watersheds could improve predictions of when and where floods are likely to occur.

  20. Probabilistic flood forecasting tool for Andalusia (Spain). Application to September 2012 disaster event in Vera Playa.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García, Darío; Baquerizo, Asunción; Ortega, Miguel; Herrero, Javier; Ángel Losada, Miguel

    2013-04-01

    Torrential and heavy rains are frequent in Andalusia (Southern Spain) due to the characteristic Mediterranean climate (semi-arid areas). This, in combination with a massive occupation of floodable (river sides) and coastal areas, produces severe problems of management and damage to the population and social and economical activities when extreme events occur. Some of the most important problems are being produced during last years in Almería (Southeastern Andalusia). Between 27 and 28 September 2012 rainstorms characterized by 240mm in 24h (exceeding precipitation for a return period of 500 years) occurred. Antas River and Jático creek, that are normally dry, became raging torrents. The massive flooding of occupied areas resulted in eleven deaths and two missing in Andalucía, with a total estimated cost of all claims for compensation on the order of 197 million euros. This study presents a probabilistic flood forecasting tool including the effect of river and marine forcings. It is based on a distributed, physically-based hydrological model (WiMMed). For Almería the model has been calibrated with the largest event recorded in Cantoria gauging station (data since 1965) on 19 October 1973. It was then validated with the second strongest event (26 October 1977). Among the different results of the model, it can provide probability floods scenarios in Andalusia with up 10 days weather forecasts. The tool has been applied to Vera, a 15.000 inhabitants town located in the east of Almería along the Antas River at an altitude of 95 meters. Its main economic resource is the "beach and sun" based-tourism, which has experienced an enormous growth during last decades. Its coastal stretch has been completely built in these years, occupying floodable areas and constricting the channel and rivers mouths. Simulations of the model in this area for the 1973 event and published in March 2011 on the internet event already announced that the floods of September 2012 may occur.

  1. Downscaling 20th century flooding events in complex terrain (Switzerland) using the WRF regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heikkilä, Ulla; Gómez Navarro, Juan Jose; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Cattin, Réne

    2016-04-01

    Switzerland has experienced a number of severe precipitation events during the last few decades, such as during the 14-16 November of 2002 or during the 21-22 August of 2005. Both events, and subsequent extreme floods, caused fatalities and severe financial losses, and have been well studied both in terms of atmospheric conditions leading to extreme precipitation, and their consequences [e.g. Hohenegger et al., 2008, Stucki et al., 2012]. These examples highlight the need to better characterise the frequency and severity of flooding in the Alpine area. In a larger framework we will ultimately produce a high-resolution data set covering the entire 20th century to be used for detailed hydrological studies including all atmospheric parameters relevant for flooding events. In a first step, we downscale the aforementioned two events of 2002 and 2005 to assess the model performance regarding precipitation extremes. The complexity of the topography in the Alpine area demands high resolution datasets. To achieve a sufficient detail in resolution we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model (WRF). A set of 4 nested domains is used with a 2-km resolution horizontal resolution over Switzerland. The NCAR 20th century reanalysis (20CR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° serves as boundary condition [Compo et al., 2011]. First results of the downscaling the 2002 and 2005 extreme precipitation events show that, compared to station observations provided by the Swiss Meteorological Office MeteoSwiss, the model strongly underestimates the strength of these events. This is mainly due to the coarse resolution of the 20CR data, which underestimates the moisture fluxes during these events. We tested driving WRF with the higher-resolved NCEP reanalysis and found a significant improvement in the amount of precipitation of the 2005 event. In a next step we will downscale the precipitation and wind fields during a 6-year period 2002-2007 to investigate and

  2. Evaluating resilience of DNP3-controlled SCADA systems against event buffer flooding

    SciTech Connect

    Yan, Guanhua; Nicol, David M; Jin, Dong

    2010-12-16

    The DNP3 protocol is widely used in SCADA systems (particularly electrical power) as a means of communicating observed sensor state information back to a control center. Typical architectures using DNP3 have a two level hierarchy, where a specialized data aggregator device receives observed state from devices within a local region, and the control center collects the aggregated state from the data aggregator. The DNP3 communication between control center and data aggregator is asynchronous with the DNP3 communication between data aggregator and relays; this leads to the possibility of completely filling a data aggregator's buffer of pending events, when a relay is compromised or spoofed and sends overly many (false) events to the data aggregator. This paper investigates how a real-world SCADA device responds to event buffer flooding. A Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) model is developed for understanding this. The DTMC model is validated by a Moebius simulation model and data collected on real SCADA testbed.

  3. Local Flood Proofing Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-02-01

    100-year flood. Selecting an appropriate flood protection level is discussed on page 63. Human Intervention: the need for one or more people to be...this publication, communities were asked “Why did your community select flood proofing as a damage reduction measure?” Six broad reasons were cited...Flood Proofing Programs – 10 – February 2005 External impact: Sometimes flood proofing is selected because the other flood protection measures

  4. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  5. The Human Impact of Floods: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

    PubMed Central

    Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Murray, Sarah; Kirsch, Thomas D.

    2013-01-01

    Background. Floods are the most common natural disaster and the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities worldwide. Risk of catastrophic losses due to flooding is significant given deforestation and the increasing proximity of large populations to coastal areas, river basins and lakeshores. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of flood events on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters Methods. Data on the impact of floods were compiled using two methods, a historical review of flood events from 1980 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics, bivariate tests for associations and multinomial logistic regression of flood characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 539,811 deaths (range: 510,941 to 568,680), 361,974 injuries and 2,821,895,005 people affected by floods between 1980 and 2009. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of flood-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries being in a motor-vehicle and male gender are associated with increased mortality, whereas female gender may be linked to higher mortality in low-income countries. Conclusions. Expanded monitoring of floods, improved mitigation measures, and effective communication with civil authorities and vulnerable populations has the potential to reduce loss of life in future flood events. PMID:23857425

  6. 100 Years of Commitment to Children: Change and Continuity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shore, Rima

    The Foundation for Child Development (FCD) is the oldest philanthropy in the nation focused on improving the life prospects of children. This booklet, produced for FCD's centennial, describes the organization's origins and changes during the past 100 years. The booklet's sections, which include photographs, quotes, and a timeline, are: (1)…

  7. Centennial Calendar- 100 Years of the American Phytopathological Society

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    I edited a 40-page publication (calendar) that covered 18 chapters written by members of our society. This covered pioneering researchers, departments, and epidemics of the last 100 years of plant pathology in the U. S. This was given to all members of the American Phytopathological Society who att...

  8. Spring wheat gliadins: Have they changed in 100 years?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    There have been many hard red spring (HRS) wheat cultivars released in North Dakota during the last 100 years. These cultivars have been improved for various characteristics such as, adaptation to weather conditions, high yield, and good milling and baking quality. The objectives of this study wer...

  9. Women in July Fourth Cartoons: A 100-Year Look.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Katherine; And Others

    1980-01-01

    Analyzes the dominance, appearance, and role of women as depicted in newspaper Independence Day political cartoons over a 100-year period. Concludes that woman's place has gradually broadened to include activities beyond wife and mother. Indicates a resistance to changing norms and difficulty in coping with emerging ones. (JMF)

  10. Floods

    MedlinePlus

    ... quickly, often have a dangerous wall of roaring water. The wall carries rocks, mud, and rubble and can sweep away most things in its path. Be aware of flood hazards no matter where you live, but especially if you live in a low-lying area, near water or downstream from a dam. Although there are ...

  11. Age of the Emeishan flood magmatism and relations to Permian-Triassic boundary events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo, Ching-Hua; Chung, Sun-Lin; Lee, Tung-Yi; Wu, Genyao

    2002-05-01

    The Permian-Triassic (P-T) mass extinction, the greatest biological mortality event in the Earth's history, was probably caused by dramatic and global forcing mechanisms such as the Siberian flood volcanism. Here we present the first set of high-precision 40Ar/ 39Ar dating results of volcanic and intrusive rocks from the Emeishan Traps, South China, which define a main stage of the flood magmatism at ˜251-253 Ma and a subordinate precursory activity at ˜255 Ma. This time span is generally coeval with, or slightly older than, the age of the P-T boundary estimated by the ash beds in the Meishan stratotype section and the main eruption of the Siberian Traps. Our data reinforces the notion that the eruption of the Emeishan Traps, rather than eruption of the Siberian Traps, accounted for the formation of the P-T boundary ash beds in South China. The Emeishan flood magmatism, which occurred in the continental margin comprising thick marine limestone formations, moreover, may have triggered rapid release of large volumes of methane and carbon dioxide that could have been responsible for the global δ 13C excursion and associated environmental crisis leading to the mass extinction at the P-T boundary.

  12. Overbank Sedimentation from the 2011 Flood along the Lower Mississippi River: Characterization and Comparison of Two Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, P. H.; Heitmuller, F. T.; Kesel, R. H.

    2012-04-01

    The geomorphic effectiveness of extreme events has long been a fundamental topic within Earth sciences. The 2011 flood along the lower Mississippi River (3.2 x 10-6 km2) was an extreme event and presented an ideal opportunity to consider controls on the magnitude and pattern of floodplain sedimentation. The study reach was located between Natchez, Mississippi and St. Francisville, Louisiana, the lowermost reaches of the alluvial valley, and the same location utilized in a well documented sedimentation study from a comparable flood event in 1973. Thus, the 2011 field study provided a rare opportunity to directly compare floodplain sedimentation from two extreme events on Earth's third largest fluvial system. Although flood stage along the Lower Mississippi River is influenced by an extensive levee system the field setting is distinctive because it is not embanked by main-line levees. The field site was flooded for nearly two months, from early May to late June 2011. The flood crest exceeded long standing (> 100 yr) stage heights, including the infamous 1927, 1937, and 1973 events. The maximum discharge at Vicksburg, Mississippi, upstream of the study sites, was 65,695 m3/s, one of the larger discharge events along the Lower Mississippi River. Field work was conducted soon after flood waters receded and before bioturbation disrupted the integrity of the flood deposits. We sampled flood deposits at fifty-five locations within a range of floodplain depositional environments to quantify and qualify the sedimentary, hydrologic, and hydraulic characteristics of the flood, and to make explicit comparison with the 1973 study. The average thickness of flood deposits ranged from < 1 mm to 650 mm, but was highly variable. Although natural levees had the thickest flood deposits several reaches along natural levees had no measureable deposits, despite being inundated by ~4 m of flood water. In such cases the angle of the upstream channel relative to the downstream cutbank is

  13. Some learnings from post-event field investigations after the june 2013 floods in the Pyrenees region in France.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payrastre, Olivier; Bonnifait, Laurent; Gaume, Eric; Le Boursicaut, Raphael

    2014-05-01

    In June 2013 catastrophic floods occurred in south of France in the Pyrenees mountainous area. These floods were due to the combination of a high initial discharge due to snowmelt with a significant rainfall event (up to 200mm rainfall), which effects may have been enhanced by an increase of snowmelt. Although the dynamics of this flood are not really similar, some of its features clearly remind what may be observed in the case of flash floods: significant contribution of relatively small watersheds, high solid transport, very limited information on the reality of flood magnitudes due to the small size of catchments contributing to the flood and the destruction of a significant part of the gauging network. This contribution presents the results of a post event field survey conducted in July 2013 in order to document this flood in terms of intensities of hydrologic reactions. The methods used are those described in Gaume et al. [2008, 2009], with a specific focus on the exploitation of videos from weatnesses. The dataset builded includes 31 peak discharge estimates, illustrating the relatively limited intensity of hydrologic reactions if compared to flash floods, but also providing some interesting complements for the consolidation of the methodology used for post-event field investigations: - several opportunities of comparison of the peak discharge estimates obtained from post event field investigations and from the gauging network, showing an overall good coherence - possibility of very significant flow velocities (up to 6 m/s-2) in the specific context observed here (slopes reaching up to 5%). - possibility to get information on flow surface velocities fields from videos provided by weatnesses. - significant influence of space-time rainfall distribution on the features of the flood, stressing the importance of a detailed information on the contribution of the sub-catchments. Gaume E., Borga M., 2008. Post flood field investigations after major flash floods

  14. Impacts of extreme events of drought and flood on local communities of Amazon basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borma, L. D.; Roballo, S.; Zauner, M.; Nascimento, V. F.

    2013-05-01

    The analysis of drought events of 1997/98, 2005 and 2010 in terms of discharge anomalies in the Amazon region confirmed previous findings, such as: a) the influence of the El Niño in more than one hydrological year; b) the increase of the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation of 1998, 2005 and 2010 drought events; c) the low levels of discharge observed in the 2010 drought are attributed to the association of discharge anomalies of the northern and southern tributaries of the Amazon river, and d) the 2010 drought lasted around 1 month (August to November) more than the other drought events analized here. The riverine communities located along the river banks of Solimões/Amazonas suit their economic activities to the oscillation of the water level. In general, low water periods favor the access to important sources of food such as fish and livestock, still allowing crop cultivation on fertile agricultural areas of the floodplain. Conversely, periods of drought increases the difficulties of transport and drinking water supply. During the high water, access to the main food supply (described above) are greatly hampered. However, the floods are recognized as an importance process of natural fertilization. Thus, despite the political, social and economic shortcomings, the local community has, since the pre-colonial period, learned to get the best of each season, providing local, regional and national markets with varzea products. During periods of extreme weather, however, the advantages of each season appear to be reduced, and the drawbacks increased. In fact, during flooding extremes, the access to primary sources of food is hampered by a long period of time and families find themselves forced to leave their homes, eventually losing them. Analysis of flow data to the extreme flooding of 2009, indicate a period of about 6 months of positive anomalies discharge (occurring mainly during high water). At the same time, Civil Defense data points to a

  15. Consequences of an unusual flood event: case study of a drainage canal breach on a fluvial plain in NE Slovenia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidmar, Ines; Ambrožič, Bojan; Debeljak, Barbara; Dolžan, Erazem; Gregorin, Špela; Grom, Nina; Herman, Polona; Keršmanc, Teja; Mencin, Eva; Mernik, Natalija; Švara, Astrid; Trobec, Ana; Turnšek, Anita; Vodeb, Petra; Torkar, Anja; Brenčič, Mihael

    2013-04-01

    On November 4-6 2012 heavy precipitation resulted in floods in the middle and lower course of Drava River in NE Slovenia causing damage to many properties in the flooded area. The meteorological situation that led to consequent floods was characterized by high precipitation, fast snowmelt, SW wind and relatively high air temperature. The weather event was part of a cyclone which was spreading over the area of North, West and Central Europe in the direction of Central Europe and carried with it the passing of a cold front through Slovenia on November 4 and 5. The flood wave travelled on the Drava River from Austria to Slovenia past the 11 hydroelectric power plants after eventually moving over the Slovenian-Croatian border. The river discharge increased in the early morning of November 5 reaching 3165 m3/s. This work focuses on a single event in the Ptujsko polje where among other damage caused by the flooding, the river broke through the drainage canal of the Formin hydroelectric power plant and changed its course. The Ptujsko polje contains two fluvial terraces. In the area of Formin HPP, the lower terrace is 1.5 km wide and the surface as well as the groundwater gradient shift from west to east with the groundwater flowing parallel to the river. These characteristics contributed to the flooding and consequential breach in the embankment of the drainage canal. Several aspects of the recent floods are discussed including a critical reflection of data accessibility, possible causes and mechanisms behind it as well as the possibility of its forecasting. Synthesis of accessible data from open domain sources is performed with emphasis on geological conditions. Discharge and precipitation data from the data base of Slovenian Environment Agency are collected, reviewed and analyzed. The flood event itself is analyzed and described in detail. It is determined that the flood wave was different from the ones regulated by natural processes which points to an anthropogenic

  16. Response and recovery of streams to an intense regional flooding event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dethier, E.; Magilligan, F. J.; Renshaw, C. E.; Kantack, K. M.

    2015-12-01

    Determining the relative roles of frequent and infrequent events on landscape form and material transport has implications for understanding landscape development, and informs planning and infrastructure decisions. Flooding due to Tropical Storm Irene in 2011 provides a unique opportunity to examine the effects of a rare, major disturbance across a broad area (14,000 km2). Intense flooding caused variable but widespread channel and riparian reconfiguration, including 995 channel-adjacent mass-wasting events, collectively referred to here as landslides, that mostly occurred in glacial deposits. Of these, about half involved reactivation of existing scars. Landslides were generally small, ranging from 60 - 26,000 m2 in planform, and covered less than 0.01 % of land in the region, yet sediment input from landslides alone (131 mm/kyr when integrated over the study area) exceeded inferred local background erosion rates by 60 times. If Irene inputs are included in a thirty-year erosion record, the estimated erosion rate, 7.2 mm/kyr, aligns closely with long-term regional rates of 5-10 mm/kyr. Landslides also input trees to streams, increasing large wood influence on those reaches. Combined wood and sediment inputs contributed to channel changes downstream of landslides. In four years since Irene, terrestrial lidar and suspended sediment sampling has documented continued large wood and sediment input. Erosion occurred on each of seventeen monitored landslides during snowmelt, but is otherwise limited except during intense precipitation and/or flood events. Repeat lidar models have recorded erosion of up to 5,000 m3 on a single slide in one year, including as much as 4000 m3 during a single event. Tree fall on scarps during erosion events creates sediment traps at the base of landslides, contributing to an observed return to equilibrium slopes. Despite trapping, substantial sediment continues to enter streams. Ninety-five suspended sediment samples from forty sites show

  17. Characterising the Geomorphic Response of a Tropical Mega-River to an Extreme, Cyclone Induced, Flood Event.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hackney, C. R.; Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.; Parsons, D. R.; Aalto, R. E.; Nicholas, A. P.; Best, J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme events have the ability to induce extensive geomorphic change in fluvial systems as a result of elevated discharge levels, increased sediment transport capacity and associated changes in sheer stresses along channel boundaries. Understanding how rapid rises in water levels change flow structures and channel boundary roughness is key to understanding the relative significance of large events in terms of driving local and system wide geomorphic change. However, capturing the fluvial process dynamics in operation during such events is technically and logistically difficult, especially in the world's largest rivers. During September 2013, on the peak of the monsoon, a series of tropical cyclones induced a large flood event within the Mekong basin. At the peak of the flood wave, discharge measured ~60000 m3/s; the 11th largest flood on record. Pre and post event high resolution topographic surveys of parts of the bed and bank were captured using a combination of contiguous multibeam echo sounding (MBES) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) during the event. Simultaneously detailed measurements of cross sectional and near bank flow structure were acquired using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (aDcp). Together, these unique datasets can be used to characterise and assess the geomorphic impact of a cyclone induced extreme flood event on the Mekong. We show how flow structures in the near bank region evolve with stage during the extreme event and how the associated geomorphic response is modulated by the distinctive process dynamics of a mega-river.

  18. Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic model for evaluating damage risk caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-Risk-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    at 20th of June 2012, based on open data sources of geology, soil and land use. The aim of FFRM is to provide an estimation of the damage risk caused by flash-floods for the whole of Upper Austria. To address the hazard, inundation depths were calculated with the extended 2D-model using design rains with an 100-year return period provided by the Environmental Ministry [7]. The potential damage was calculated using damage functions, which were derived from our experience from damage surveys of past events in Austria and according to guidelines for determination of cost-benefit-ratios for flood protection measures [8]. The greatest difficulty was to get appropriate data for the distribution of houses and industrial plants. Zoning plans provide good information on spatial distribution of residential, commercial and industrial areas, but does not contain information on the kind of industry, which is essential for estimating absolute damage values. To get a first idea detailed information from surveyed areas was intersected with the zoning plan, which provides an average damage in the respective zones. The first results can be found on www.waterviewer.com and will be updated with the further development of the project. [1] URBAS, risk management of extreme flooding events - prediction and management of flash floods in urban areas, www.urbanesturzfluten.de, prompted on 13th of November 2014 [2] Società Meteorologica Italiana (SMI), http://www.nimbus.it/eventi/2013/130624flashfloodRimini.pdf, prompted on 13th of November 2014 [3]Newspaper "Österreich", http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Sturzflut-Regen-legt-Ost-Oesterreich-lahm/1509113, prompted on 13th of November 2014 [4] Newspaper „Oberösterreichische Nachrichten", http://www.nachrichten.at/oberoesterreich/Unwetter-Mure-riss-Strasse-mit-Wohnhaus-in-Gosau-gefaehrdet;art4,911288 , prompted on 13th of November 2014 [5] Sharing Water-related Information to Tackle Changes in the Hydrosphere - for Operational Needs

  19. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  20. Influence of intra-event-based flood regime on sediment flow behavior from a typical agro-catchment of the Chinese Loess Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Le-Tao; Li, Zhan-Bin; Wang, He; Xiao, Jun-Bo

    2016-07-01

    The pluvial erosion process is significantly affected by tempo-spatial patterns of flood flows. However, despite their importance, only a few studies have investigated the sediment flow behavior that is driven by different flood regimes. The study aims to investigate the effect of intra-event-based flood regimes on the dynamics of sediment exports at Tuanshangou catchment, a typical agricultural catchment (unmanaged) in the hilly loess region on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Measurements of 193 flood events and 158 sediment-producing events were collected from Tuanshangou station between 1961 and 1969. The combined methods of hierarchical clustering approach, discriminant analysis and One-Way ANOVA were used to classify the flood events in terms of their event-based flood characteristics, including flood duration, peak discharge, and event flood runoff depth. The 193 flood events were classified into five regimes, and the mean statistical features of each regime significantly differed. Regime A includes flood events with the shortest duration (76 min), minimum flood crest (0.045 m s-1), least runoff depth (0.2 mm), and highest frequency. Regime B includes flood events with a medium duration (274 min), medium flood crest (0.206 m s-1), and minor runoff depth (0.7 mm). Regime C includes flood events with the longest duration (822 min), medium flood crest (0.236 m s-1), and medium runoff depth (1.7 mm). Regime D includes flood events with a medium duration (239 min), large flood crest (4.21 m s-1), and large runoff depth (10 mm). Regime E includes flood events with a medium duration (304 min), maximum flood crest (8.62 m s-1), and largest runoff depth (25.9 mm). The sediment yield by different flood regimes is ranked as follows: Regime E > Regime D > Regime B > Regime C > Regime A. In terms of event-based average and maximum suspended sediment concentration, these regimes are ordered as follows: Regime E > Regime D > Regime C > Regime B > Regime A. Regimes D and E

  1. Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberola, Armando; Barriendos, Mariano; Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Pérez-Morales, Alfredo; Balasch, Carles; Castelltort, Xavier; Mazón, Jordi; Pino, David; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Tuset, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources Armando Alberola, Barriendos, M., Gil-Guirado, S., Pérez Morales, A., Balasch, C., Castelltort, X., Mazón, J., Pino, D., Ruiz-Bellet, J.L., Tuset, J. Historical flood events in eastern spanish coast have been studied by different research groups and projects. Complexity of flood processes, involving atmospheric, surface and human factors, is not easily understandable when long time series are required. Present analysis from PREDIFLOOD Project Consortium defines a new step of flood event databases: Improved access to primary (documentary) and secondary (bibliographical) sources, data collection for all possible locations where floods are detected, and improved system of classification (Barriendos et al., 2014). A first analysis is applied to 8 selected flood series. Long chronologies from PREDIFLOOD Project for Catalonia region (Girona, Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Tortosa). In addition, to cover all sector of spanish mediterranean coast, we introduce Valencia city in Turia River basin. South Eastern sector is cover with Murcia and Caravaca cities, Segura River basin. Extension of area under study required contributions of research teams experienced in work of documentary primary sources (Alberola, 2006; Gil-Guirado, 2013). Flood frequency analysis for long scale periods show natural climatic oscillations into so-called Little Ice Age. There are general patterns, affecting most of basins, but also some local anomalies or singularities. To explain these differences and analogies it is not enough to use purely climatic factors. In this way, we analyze human factors that have been able to influence the variability of floods along last 6 centuries (demography, hydraulic infrastructures, urban development...). This approach improves strongly understanding of mechanisms producing

  2. Spatially distributed modelling of surface water-groundwater exchanges during overbank flood events - a case study at the Garonne River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernard-Jannin, Léonard; Brito, David; Sun, Xiaoling; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez-Pérez, José-Miguel

    2016-08-01

    Exchanges between surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) are of considerable importance to floodplain ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. Flood events in particular are important for riparian water budget and element exchanges and processing. However SW-GW exchanges present complex spatial and temporal patterns and modelling can provide useful knowledge about the processes involved at the scale of the reach and its adjacent floodplain. This study used a physically-based, spatially-distributed modelling approach for studying SW-GW exchanges. The modelling in this study is based on the MOHID Land model, combining the modelling of surface water flow in 2D with the Saint-Venant equation and the modelling of unsaturated groundwater flow in 3D with the Richards' equation. Overbank flow during floods was also integrated, as well as water exchanges between the two domains across the entire floodplain. Conservative transport simulations were also performed to study and validate the simulation of the mixing between surface water and groundwater. The model was applied to the well-monitored study site of Monbéqui (6.6 km²) in the Garonne floodplain (south-west France) for a five-month period and was able to represent the hydrology of the study area. Infiltration (SW to GW) and exfiltration (SW to GW) were characterised over the five-month period. Results showed that infiltration and exfiltration exhibited strong spatiotemporal variations, and infiltration from overbank flow accounted for 88% of the total simulated infiltration, corresponding to large flood periods. The results confirmed that overbank flood events played a determinant role in floodplain water budget and SW-GW exchanges compared to smaller (below bankfull) flood events. The impact of floods on water budget appeared to be similar for flood events exceeding a threshold corresponding to the five-year return period event due to the study area's topography. Simulation of overbank flow during flood events was an

  3. Runoff models and flood frequency statistics for design flood estimation in Austria - Do they tell a consistent story?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogger, M.; Kohl, B.; Pirkl, H.; Viglione, A.; Komma, J.; Kirnbauer, R.; Merz, R.; Blöschl, G.

    2012-08-01

    SummaryDesign floods for a given location at a stream can be estimated by a number of approaches including flood frequency statistics and the design storm method. If applied to the same catchment the two methods often yield quite different results. The aim of this paper is to contribute to understanding the reasons for these differences. A case study is performed for 10 alpine catchments in Tyrol, Austria, where the 100-year floods are estimated by (a) flood frequency statistics and (b) an event based runoff model. To identify the sources of the differences of the two methods, the 100-year floods are also estimated by (c) Monte Carlo simulations using a continuous runoff model. The results show that, in most catchments, the event based model gives larger flood estimates than flood frequency statistics. The reasons for the differences depend on the catchment characteristics and different rainfall inputs that were applied. For catchments with a high storage capacity the Monte Carlo simulations indicate a step change in the flood frequency curve when a storage threshold is exceeded which is not captured by flood frequency statistics. Flood frequency statistics therefore tends to underestimate the floods in these catchments. For catchments with a low storage capacity or significant surface runoff, no step change occurs, but in three catchments the design storms used were larger than those read from the IDF (intensity duration frequency) curve leading to an overestimation of the design floods. Finally, also the correct representation of flood dominating runoff components was shown to influence design flood results. Geologic information on the catchments was essential for identifying the reasons for the mismatch of the flood estimates.

  4. Reconstruction of late Holocene flooding events in the Gulf of Genoa, Ligurian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamy, Frank; Kaiser, Jerome; Arz, Helge; Ruggieri, Nicoletta

    2014-05-01

    The area of the Gulf of Genoa contains a large potential for studying past rainfall variability as it is one of the major Mediterranean centers for cyclogenesis. The strongest depressions form when cold arctic/subarctic air outbreaks flow through the Rhone valley into the Gulf of Lions and the Ligurian Sea during late autumn when sea surface temperatures are still relatively high. The cyclones are more frequent during negative Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). As well, significant negative correlations exist between AO/NAO and winter/spring precipitation and river discharge in northwestern Italy. Related autumn flooding events occur at interannual time-scales and may cause substantial damage in the region. Moreover, the "Genoa Cyclones" sometimes move northeastwards into eastern/central Europe (the so-called "Vb" cyclone track) and contributed for example substantially to the Elbe flooding in 2002. During R/V Poseidon cruise P413 (May 2011), ca. 60 sediment cores were taken along the Ligurian shelf, continental slope and in the basin between off Livorno and the French border. Coring profiles from the coastal area to the deep basin allow reconstructing past environmental variability over the last ca. 90000 years with sedimentation rates varying between ca. 0.5 cm*yr-1 for the latest Holocene to ca. 10 cm*kyr-1 for the last glacial. On the shelf, mud lenses with exceptionally high sedimentation rates reaching several m/kyr provide detailed Holocene records of changes in terrigenous sediment input primarily related to autumn rainfall events. We performed high resolution (mm) analyses of major elements using XRF core-scanning on two cores with extremely high resolution (0.2-0.4 cm/year) over the last 2.5 kyr BP. Typical elements of detrital origin (i.e. Ti, Fe) present a very high variability, probably related to flooding events during the late Holocene. Spectral analysis on these records reveals significant periodicities around 4-5 and 7

  5. Validation of the Impact of Event Scale-Revised for adolescents experiencing the floods and mudslides.

    PubMed

    Chen, Cheng-Sheng; Cheng, Chung-Ping; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Tang, Tze-Chun; Yang, Pinchen; Yang, Rei-Cheng; Huang, Ming-Shyan; Jong, Yuh-Jyh; Yu, Hsin-Su

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) for adolescents who had experienced the floods and mudslides caused by Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan. The internal consistency, construct validity, and criteria validity of the instrument were examined. Principal component analysis followed by an oblique rotation was used to derive a three-factor solution. These factors were labeled intrusion, hyperarousal, and avoidance; all three factors together accounted for 58.1% of the variance. The total Cronbach's alpha of 0.94 reflected the good internal consistency of the instrument. With reference to diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder, the IES-R cutoff point for posttraumatic stress disorder was 19 of 20 with a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 84.1%. In conclusion, the IES-R can be used as a reliable and valid instrument when evaluating psychological distress among adolescents who have experienced a natural disaster, such as flooding and mudslides.

  6. NASA Administrator Dan Goldin greets 100-year-old VIP.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Among the VIPs attending the launch of STS-99 is Captain Ralph Charles (left), standing next to NASA Administrator Dan Goldin. Charles hopes to have his wish fulfilled of watching a Shuttle launch in person. The 100-year-old aviator has experienced nearly a century of flight history, from the Wright Brothers to the Space Program. He took flying lessons from one of the first fliers trained by Orville Wright, first repaired then built airplanes, went barnstorming, operated a charter service in the Caribbean, and worked as a test pilot for the Curtiss Wright Airplane Co. Charles is the oldest licensed pilot in the United States, and is still flying.

  7. Palama Settlement: 100 years of serving a neighborhood's needs.

    PubMed

    Rath, P

    1995-11-01

    The founding of Palama Settlement brought to those who might not be able to afford it public health nurses for maternal care and nutrition, well-baby clinics, tuberculosis clinics, medical and dental clinics, and eventually major support of medical needs during and after the attack on Pearl Harbor. Palama Settlement celebrates its centennial year with many of its early functions assumed by state and private organizations, but it is prepared to enter the next 100 years of service to the community. Palama was founded by James Arthur Rath with the purpose of serving the community; many people today remember their childhood and Palama Settlement.

  8. A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

    2013-04-01

    Pakistan is highly disaster-prone, with three major flood disasters occurred in the past three years, yet major losses are not inevitable. Farming-based families still struggling to recover from 2010 and 2011 floods have again faced another bad monsoon season in 2012. Meanwhile, the likelihood of yet more natural disasters in the future is high as the phenomenon of climate change is increasing the prevalence of extreme weather conditions. Even with less rainfall, the risk of flooding this year remains high, while many villages have not fully recovered from the 2011-2012 floods. It is of utmost importance to support the most vulnerable rural communities to recover their flood-affected livelihoods. In the meantime, prioritizing disaster preparedness through flood hazard and population mapping is crucial to ensure that realistic contingency plans are in place to deliver an effective and timely response and reduce the impact of floods before they strike. To increase preparedness in future floods, an integrated approach that builds the resilience of flood affected community and enhances emergency preparedness based on reliable data is critical. We present here the innovative methodology developed for estimating population and livelihood that could potentially be affected by a future flood scenario, as well as a methodology for knowing where these people are located, along with an overview of their livelihood pattern. This project has used only freely available dataset, due to the urgency of providing a toolbox to the humanitarian community and the absence of readily available detailed information on natural hazards and exposure in Pakistan. The estimated figures resulting from this project, would provide the Food Security stakeholders with adequate information and data for programming a tailored response in case of floods during future monsoon season. For the purpose of preparedness, understanding the risks, and its potential magnitude, is crucial to provide decision

  9. Assessment of trace element accumulation in surface sediments off Chennai coast after a major flood event.

    PubMed

    Gopal, V; Krishnakumar, S; Simon Peter, T; Nethaji, S; Suresh Kumar, K; Jayaprakash, M; Magesh, N S

    2017-01-30

    The present study was conducted to assess the trace element concentration in marine surface sediments after major flood event of Chennai metropolis, India. Thirty surface samples were collected from off Chennai coast. Trace elements, organic matter, CaCO3, sand-silt-clay and C/N ratios were studied to understand the accumulation dynamics on sediments. The elemental concentration, calcium carbonate and OM distribution suggest that they are derived from urban runoff and transported through Adyar and Cooum Rivers. The enrichment factor reveals that the sediments are enriched by Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr, Co, Ni followed by Fe. The observed Igeo value shows that the samples are contaminated by Pb, Cu and Zn. The elemental concentration of the surface sediments is low when compared to other coastal region except Pb. The elevated level of Pb in the surface sediments is probably due to migration of contaminated urban soil from industrial and transportation sectors into marine environment.

  10. Analysis of a localized flash-flood event over the central Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gascón, E.; Laviola, S.; Merino, A.; Miglietta, M. M.

    2016-12-01

    On 3 July 2006, an exceptionally heavy convective rainfall affected a small area in Calabria, Italy. A rainfall amount of 202 mm was recorded in 2.5 h, producing considerable damage and causing a localized flash flood. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to analyze the instability present in the event and the related triggering mechanisms. The high-resolution simulation is able to correctly identify the position of the precipitation peak and to clarify the mesoscale processes involved, although it significantly underestimates the total amount of precipitation. Some sensitivity experiments confirm the importance of the choice of planetary boundary layer and microphysics parameterization schemes for a correct simulation of the event, showing a strong sensitivity to these numerical tests. Also, the need for high horizontal resolution emerges clearly: an accurate representation of the orography at small scales, is required to simulate the event in its correct location. Instability indices identified an extremely favorable environment for convection development, with very high values of CAPE and high moisture content at low levels. The low mountains near the rainfall peak play an important role in triggering the release of instability and controlling the location of rainfall; in particular, the peculiar morphology of the orography creates low-level wind convergence and provides the uplift necessary for the air parcels to reach the level of free convection. In this framework, nondimensional parameters, such as the Froude number, have been calculated to better understand the interaction of the flow with the orography.

  11. Estuarine ecosystem response to three large-scale Mississippi River flood diversion events.

    PubMed

    Roy, Eric D; White, John R; Smith, Emily A; Bargu, Sibel; Li, Chunyan

    2013-08-01

    Large inflows of nitrogen (N)-rich freshwater to estuaries can lead to expressions of eutrophication including harmful algal blooms of cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs). Lake Pontchartrain is a large, oligohaline estuary that occasionally receives episodic diversions of N-rich Mississippi River water via the Bonnet Carré Spillway to alleviate flood threats to New Orleans, LA. The extreme flood stage of the Lower Mississippi River in May 2011 prompted the tenth opening of the spillway since 1937. The 2011 opening occurred later in the season than the previous two lower discharge events (1997 and 2008) and was characterized by dissolved inorganic N loads 1.7 and 2.6 times greater than the 1997 and 2008 events, respectively. Rapid depletion of riverine nitrate (21 days) occurred post-spillway closure in 2011 with no associated CyanoHAB and was followed by an internal pulse of phosphorus (P) from sediments to restore N-limitation. Our analysis of recent spillway openings indicates that there is not a simple stimulus-response relationship between N loading and CyanoHAB formation. We investigate the systemic causal relationships that determine ecosystem response to these nutrient-rich freshwater inflows and highlight several important parameters including: external N loading, timing, magnitude, plume hydrodynamics, nutrient molar ratios, internal P loading, weather, and northern tributary discharge. Our results suggest that the turbulent, fluctuating environment and nutrient composition during diversions does not favor CyanoHAB formation and that the immense size and timing of the 2011 diversion may have resulted in near complete post-diversion CyanoHAB suppression by hydraulic flushing.

  12. The effects of fire-flood events on the sediment yield of a coastal California watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warrick, J. A.; Hatten, J. A.; Gray, A. B.; Watson, E. B.; Pasternack, G. B.; Goni, M. A.; Wheatcroft, R. A.

    2010-12-01

    Wildfire can dramatically alter the physical and geochemical conditions of the landscape and modify rates of runoff and erosion. The occurrence of two large wildfires in the Arroyo Seco watershed (293 km2) of California along with water and sediment sampling before and after both fires provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the watershed-scale effects of wildfire on water, sediment and carbon fluxes. Here we show that the effects of the two wildfires differed markedly. The 1977 Marble Cone wildfire was followed by an exceptionally wet winter, which resulted in concentrations and fluxes of both fine and coarse suspended sediment that were approximately 35-fold greater than average (sediment yield during the 1977-78 water year was 11,000 t/km2/yr). We suggest that this kind of fire-flood event has a recurrence interval that is greater than 1000 yr. In contrast, the 2008 Basin Complex wildfire was followed by a drier than normal year, and although suspended-sediment fluxes and concentrations were significantly elevated compared to those expected during unburned conditions, the sediment yield during 2008-09 water year was less than 1/100th of the previous fire (90 t/km2/yr). We suggest that these differences resulted from the presence and lack of, respectively, precipitation-enhanced erosion processes, such as rilling and mass movements. These concepts are explored further using a stochastic model of sediment yield, which suggests that the long-term effects of wildfire are greater suspended-sediment fluxes and exceptionally rare fire-flood events (~1000-yr recurrence) such as observed in 1977-78 that export suspended sediment at rates at least an order-of-magnitude greater than would be expected without wildfire.

  13. Quality control of the RMS US flood model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jankowfsky, Sonja; Hilberts, Arno; Mortgat, Chris; Li, Shuangcai; Rafique, Farhat; Rajesh, Edida; Xu, Na; Mei, Yi; Tillmanns, Stephan; Yang, Yang; Tian, Ye; Mathur, Prince; Kulkarni, Anand; Kumaresh, Bharadwaj Anna; Chaudhuri, Chiranjib; Saini, Vishal

    2016-04-01

    The RMS US flood model predicts the flood risk in the US with a 30 m resolution for different return periods. The model is designed for the insurance industry to estimate the cost of flood risk for a given location. Different statistical, hydrological and hydraulic models are combined to develop the flood maps for different return periods. A rainfall-runoff and routing model, calibrated with observed discharge data, is run with 10 000 years of stochastic simulated precipitation to create time series of discharge and surface runoff. The 100, 250 and 500 year events are extracted from these time series as forcing for a two-dimensional pluvial and fluvial inundation model. The coupling of all the different models which are run on the large area of the US implies a certain amount of uncertainty. Therefore, special attention is paid to the final quality control of the flood maps. First of all, a thorough quality analysis of the Digital Terrain model and the river network was done, as the final quality of the flood maps depends heavily on the DTM quality. Secondly, the simulated 100 year discharge in the major river network (600 000 km) is compared to the 100 year discharge derived using extreme value distribution of all USGS gauges with more than 20 years of peak values (around 11 000 gauges). Thirdly, for each gauge the modelled flood depth is compared to the depth derived from the USGS rating curves. Fourthly, the modelled flood depth is compared to the base flood elevation given in the FEMA flood maps. Fifthly, the flood extent is compared to the FEMA flood extent. Then, for historic events we compare flood extents and flood depths at given locations. Finally, all the data and spatial layers are uploaded on geoserver to facilitate the manual investigation of outliers. The feedback from the quality control is used to improve the model and estimate its uncertainty.

  14. Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

    2010-05-01

    Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk

  15. A quality assessment framework for natural hazard event documentations: application to trans-basin flood reports in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhlemann, S.; Thieken, A. H.; Merz, B.

    2013-02-01

    Written sources that aim at documenting and analysing a particular natural hazard event in the recent past are published at vast majority as grey literature (e.g. as technical reports) and therefore outside of the scholarly publication routes. In consequence, the application of event specific documentations in natural hazard research has been constrained by barriers in accessibility and concerns of credibility towards these sources and by limited awareness of their content and its usefulness for research questions. In this study we address the concerns of credibility for the first time and present a quality assessment framework for written sources from a user's perspective, i.e. we assess the documents' fitness for use to enhance the understanding of trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952-2002. The framework is designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard event documentation and assesses the quality of a document addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. We introduce an ordinal scaling scheme to grade the quality in the single quality dimensions and the Pedigree score which serves as a measure for the overall document quality. We present results of an application of the framework to a set of 133 event specific documentations relevant for understanding trans-basin floods in Germany. Our results show that the majority of flood event specific reports are of a good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The validation of our results against assessments of two independent peers confirms the objectivity and transparency of the quality assessment framework. Using an example flood event that occurred in October/November 1998 we demonstrate how the information from multiple reports can be synthesised under consideration of their quality.

  16. A quality assessment framework for natural hazard event documentation: application to trans-basin flood reports in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uhlemann, S.; Thieken, A. H.; Merz, B.

    2014-02-01

    Written sources that aim at documenting and analysing a particular natural hazard event in the recent past are published at vast majority as grey literature (e.g. as technical reports) and therefore outside of the scholarly publication routes. In consequence, the application of event-specific documentation in natural hazard research has been constrained by barriers in accessibility, concerns of credibility towards these sources and by limited awareness of their content and its usefulness for research questions. In this study we address the concerns of credibility for the first time and present a quality assessment framework for written sources from a user's perspective, i.e. we assess the documents' fitness for use to enhance the understanding of trans-basin floods in Germany in the period 1952-2002. The framework is designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard event documentation and assesses the quality of a document, addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. We introduce an ordinal scaling scheme to grade the quality in the individual quality dimensions and the Pedigree score which serves as a measure for the overall document quality. We present results of an application of the framework to a set of 133 cases of event-specific documentation relevant for understanding trans-basin floods in Germany. Our results show that the majority of flood event-specific reports are of good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The validation of our results against assessments of two independent peers confirms the objectivity and transparency of the quality assessment framework. Using an example flood event that occurred in October/November 1998 we demonstrate how the information from multiple reports can be synthesised.

  17. Developing tools and procedures for the collection and storage of flood damage data in the aftermath of flood events: the Poli-RISPOSTA project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Mazuran, Mirjana; Arias, Carolina; Minucci, Guido; Atun, Funda; Ardagna, Danilo

    2015-04-01

    According to a recent JRC report (De Groeve et al., Recording disaster losses, 2013), no measure better than loss over time can provide objective understanding of the path towards resilience. Moreover, damage data collected in the aftermath of floods supply the knowledge base on which a blend of actions can be performed, both in the short and mid time after the occurrence of a flood; among them: the identification of priorities for intervention during emergencies, the definition of compensation schemes, the understanding of damage mechanisms and of the fragilities of the flooded areas so as to improve/reform current risk mitigation strategies (also by means of improved flood damage models). Objective "measurement" of flood losses remains inadequate to meet the above objectives. This is due to a number of reasons that include: the diversity of intent for data collection, the lack of standardization on how to collect and storage data (including the lack of agreed definitions) among responsible subjects, and last but not least a lack of legislation to support the collection process. In such a context, the aim of this contribution is to discuss the results from the Poli-RISPOSTA (stRumentI per la protezione civile a Supporto delle POpolazioni nel poST Alluvione) project, a research project founded by Politecnico di Milano which is intended to develop tools and procedures for the collection and storage of high quality, consistent and reliable flood damage data. Specific objectives of Poli-RISPOSTA are: - Develop an operational procedure for collecting, storing and analyzing all damage data, in the aftermath of flood events. Collected data are intended to support a variety of actions, namely: loss accounting, disaster forensic, damage compensation and flood risk modelling; - Develop educational material and modules for training practitioners in the use of the procedure; - Develop enhanced IT tools to support the procedure, easing as much as possible the collection of

  18. NASA Administrator Dan Goldin greets 100-year-old VIP.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Astronaut Andy Thomas (left) greets 100-year-old Captain Ralph Charles, one of the VIPs attending the launch of STS-99. Charles also met NASA Administrator Dan Goldin. An aviator who has the distinction of being the oldest licensed pilot in the United States, Charles is still flying. He has experienced nearly a century of flight history, from the Wright Brothers to the Space Program. He took flying lessons from one of the first fliers trained by Orville Wright, first repaired then built airplanes, went barnstorming, operated a charter service in the Caribbean, and worked as a test pilot for the Curtiss Wright Airplane Co. Charles watches all the Shuttle launches from his home in Ohio and his greatest wish is to be able to watch one in person from KSC.

  19. Opening the 100-Year Window for Time-Domain Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grindlay, Jonathan; Tang, Sumin; Los, Edward; Servillat, Mathieu

    2012-04-01

    The large-scale surveys such as PTF, CRTS and Pan-STARRS-1 that have emerged within the past 5 years or so employ digital databases and modern analysis tools to accentuate research into Time Domain Astronomy (TDA). Preparations are underway for LSST which, in another 6 years, will usher in the second decade of modern TDA. By that time the Digital Access to a Sky Century @ Harvard (DASCH) project will have made available to the community the full sky Historical TDA database and digitized images for a century (1890-1990) of coverage. We describe the current DASCH development and some initial results, and outline plans for the ``production scanning'' phase and data distribution which is to begin in 2012. That will open a 100-year window into temporal astrophysics, revealing rare transients and (especially) astrophysical phenomena that vary on time-scales of a decade. It will also provide context and archival comparisons for the deeper modern surveys.

  20. 100 years of sedimentation study by the USGS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glysson, G. Douglas

    1989-01-01

    On January 15, 1889, the U.S. Geological Survey began collecting sediment data on the Rio Grande at Embudo, New Mexico. During the past 100 years the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Resources Division (WRD) has collected daily sediment data at more than 1,200 sites. Projects have addressed the problems associated with reservoir construction, agricultural irrigation projects, energy production, and transport and deposition of pollutants sorbed to sediments. The Survey has been active as a charter member of the Federal Interagency Sediment Project and currently has three full-time hydrologists working on the project. The WRD's sediment-research projects have covered a wide variety of subjects from the fundamental theories of resistance to flow and sediment transport in alluvial channels to lunar erosion mechanisms.

  1. 100 years after Smoluchowski: stochastic processes in cell biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

    2017-03-01

    100 years after Smoluchowski introduced his approach to stochastic processes, they are now at the basis of mathematical and physical modeling in cellular biology: they are used for example to analyse and to extract features from a large number (tens of thousands) of single molecular trajectories or to study the diffusive motion of molecules, proteins or receptors. Stochastic modeling is a new step in large data analysis that serves extracting cell biology concepts. We review here Smoluchowski’s approach to stochastic processes and provide several applications for coarse-graining diffusion, studying polymer models for understanding nuclear organization and finally, we discuss the stochastic jump dynamics of telomeres across cell division and stochastic gene regulation.

  2. Simulation of Flood Profiles for Catoma Creek near Montgomery, Alabama, 2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, K.G.; Hedgecock, T.S.

    2008-01-01

    A one-dimensional step-backwater model was used to simulate flooding conditions for Catoma Creek near Montgomery, Alabama. A peak flow of 50,000 cubic feet per second was computed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the March 1990 flood at the Norman Bridge Road gaging station. Using this estimated peak flow, flood-plain surveys with associated roughness coefficients, and surveyed high-water marks for the March 1990 flood, a flow model was calibrated to closely match the known event. The calibrated model then was used to simulate flooding for the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods. The 100-year flood stage for the Alabama River also was computed in the vicinity of the Catoma Creek confluence using observed high-water profiles from the 1979 and 1990 floods and gaging-station data. The results indicate that the 100-year flood profile for Catoma Creek within the 15-mile study reach is about 2.5 feet higher, on average, than the profile published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The maximum and minimum differences are 6.0 feet and 0.8 foot, respectively. All water-surface elevations computed for the 100-year flood are higher than those published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The 100-year flood stage computed for the Alabama River in the vicinity of the Catoma Creek confluence was about 4.5 feet lower than the elevation published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The results of this study provide the community with flood-profile information that can be used for flood-plain mitigation, future development, and safety plans for the city.

  3. Estimation of Future Changes in Flood Disaster Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konoshima, L.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Roobavannan, M.

    2012-12-01

    Disaster losses can be estimated by hazard intensity, exposure, and vulnerabilities. Many studies have addressed future economic losses from river floods, most of which are focused on Europe (Bouwer et al, 2010). Here flood disaster losses are calculated using the output of multi-model ensembles of CMIP5 GCMs in order to estimate the changes in damage loss due to climate change. For the global distribution of the expected future population and GDP, the ALPS scenario of RITE is population for is used. Here, flood event is defined as river discharge that has a probability of having 100 years return period. The time series of annual maximum daily discharge was fitted using moment fitting method for GEV distribution at each grid. L-moment method (Hosking and Wallis 1997) is used for estimating the parameters of distribution. For probability distribution, Gumbel distribution and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution were tested to see the future changes of 100-year value. Using the calculation of 100-year flood of present condition and annual maximum discharge for present and future climate conditions, the area exceeding 100-year flood is calculated for each 30 years. And to estimate the economic impact of future changes in occurrence of 100-year flood, affected total GDP is calculated by multiplying the affected population with country's GDP in areas exceeding 100-year flood value of present climate for each present and future conditions. The 100-year flood value is fixed with the value of present condition in calculating the affected value on the future condition. To consider the effect of the climatic condition and changes of economic growth, the regions are classified by continents. The Southeast Asia is divided into Japan and South Korea (No.1) and other countries (No.2), since the GDP and GDP growth rate within the two areas is quite different compared to other regions. Figure 1 shows the average and standard deviation (1-sigma) of future changing ratio

  4. Sediment Delivery Ratio of Single Flood Events and the Influencing Factors in a Headwater Basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Mingguo; Liao, Yishan; He, Jijun

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the sediment delivery of single flood events although it has been well known that the sediment delivery ratio at the inter-annual time scale is close to 1 in the Chinese Loess Plateau. This study examined the sediment delivery of single flood events and the influencing factors in a headwater basin of the Loess Plateau, where hyperconcentrated flows are dominant. Data observed from plot to subwatershed over the period from 1959 to 1969 were presented. Sediment delivery ratio of a single event (SDRe) was calculated as the ratio of sediment output from the subwatershed to sediment input into the channel. It was found that SDRe varies greatly for small events (runoff depth <5 mm or rainfall depth <30 mm) and remains fairly constant (approximately between 1.1 and 1.3) for large events (runoff depth >5 mm or rainfall depth >30 mm). We examined 11 factors of rainfall (rainfall amount, rainfall intensity, rainfall kinetic energy, rainfall erosivity and rainfall duration), flood (area-specific sediment yield, runoff depth, peak flow discharge, peak sediment concentration and flood duration) and antecedent land surface (antecedent precipitation) in relation to SDRe. Only the peak sediment concentration significantly correlates with SDRe. Contrary to popular belief, channel scour tends to occur in cases of higher peak sediment concentrations. Because small events also have chances to attain a high sediment concentration, many small events (rainfall depth <20 mm) are characterized by channel scour with an SDRe larger than 1. Such observations can be related to hyperconcentrated flows, which behave quite differently from normal stream flows. Our finding that large events have a nearly constant SDRe is useful for sediment yield predictions in the Loess Plateau and other regions where hyperconcentrated flows are well developed. PMID:25389752

  5. Sediment delivery ratio of single flood events and the influencing factors in a headwater basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Mingguo; Liao, Yishan; He, Jijun

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the sediment delivery of single flood events although it has been well known that the sediment delivery ratio at the inter-annual time scale is close to 1 in the Chinese Loess Plateau. This study examined the sediment delivery of single flood events and the influencing factors in a headwater basin of the Loess Plateau, where hyperconcentrated flows are dominant. Data observed from plot to subwatershed over the period from 1959 to 1969 were presented. Sediment delivery ratio of a single event (SDRe) was calculated as the ratio of sediment output from the subwatershed to sediment input into the channel. It was found that SDRe varies greatly for small events (runoff depth <5 mm or rainfall depth <30 mm) and remains fairly constant (approximately between 1.1 and 1.3) for large events (runoff depth >5 mm or rainfall depth >30 mm). We examined 11 factors of rainfall (rainfall amount, rainfall intensity, rainfall kinetic energy, rainfall erosivity and rainfall duration), flood (area-specific sediment yield, runoff depth, peak flow discharge, peak sediment concentration and flood duration) and antecedent land surface (antecedent precipitation) in relation to SDRe. Only the peak sediment concentration significantly correlates with SDRe. Contrary to popular belief, channel scour tends to occur in cases of higher peak sediment concentrations. Because small events also have chances to attain a high sediment concentration, many small events (rainfall depth <20 mm) are characterized by channel scour with an SDRe larger than 1. Such observations can be related to hyperconcentrated flows, which behave quite differently from normal stream flows. Our finding that large events have a nearly constant SDRe is useful for sediment yield predictions in the Loess Plateau and other regions where hyperconcentrated flows are well developed.

  6. Moisture Sources and Large-Scale Dynamics Associated with a Flash Flood Event in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Trigo, Isabel F.; María Durán-Quesada, Ana; Nieto, Raquel; Gimeno, Luis

    2013-04-01

    On 18-19 November 1983, the region of Lisbon, in Portugal, was affected by a heavy precipitation event, soon followed by flash flooding, urban inundations and a burst of landslides around Lisbon [Zêzere et al., 2005] causing considerable infrastructure damage and human fatalities. With a total of 95.6 mm in 24 h observed at the longest serving station in Portugal (Lisbon's Dom Luiz Observatory), this was the rainiest day during the twentieth century and one of the rainiest registered since 1864. We found that this event was triggered by the transport of tropical and subtropical moisture associated with an extratropical cyclone. The low favored a large stream of (sub) tropical air that extended over more than 10° of latitude and across the North Atlantic Ocean, carrying a large amount of moisture originally from lower latitudes, a so-called atmospheric river. The stationary position of the jet stream along the East Atlantic Ocean through Iberia caused a strong enhancement of the precipitation associated with the moist air. A Lagrangian analysis of the transport of moisture in the Euro-Atlantic sector was performed based on the methodology developed by Stohl and James [2004, 2005], using the FLEXPART model. This Lagrangian methodology was employed to show that the evaporative sources for the precipitation falling over the area of Lisbon were distributed over large sectors of the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic Ocean and included a significant contribution from the (sub) tropics. This study [Liberato et al., 2012] aims to provide an example of the application of distinct Lagrangian techniques to achieve a better understanding of the relation between extratropical cyclones and the occurrence of a heavy precipitation event on the Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) Programme and by national funds

  7. A meteo-hydrological modeling study for flood events in the Ofanto river catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verri, Giorgia; Pinardi, Nadia; Tribbia, Joseph; Gochis, David; Navarra, Antonio; Coppini, Giovanni; Vukicevic, Tomislava

    2016-04-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the capability of our meteo-hydrological modeling system to simulate the local water cycle of the Ofanto river catchment. The basin of the Ofanto River, flowing through the Southern Italy and ending into the Adriatic Sea, is chosen as a challenging case study to test the modeling chain since the Southern Italy is known to be a region subject to flash flood events (Delrieu et al, 2005; Davolio et al, 2008; Miglietta et al., 2008). Moreover the Ofanto River is a semi-perennial river, its annual averaged discharge is low (15 m3s-1following Raicich, 1996) but may significantly increase when heavy rain events occur. We select the first 3 months of 2011 as model time window since 4 heavy rain events characterized this period with flooding of the Ofanto River during two of them. The meteo-hydrological chain consists of: WRF-ARW model (Skamarock et al., 2008) for the atmospheric modeling, NOAH-MP Land Surface Model (Niu et al., 2011) which describes the vertical physics of the soil column up to 1m below the ground-level, and WRF-Hydro model (Gochis D., et al., 2013) which enables to model the lateral soil surface and subsurface water fluxes and is coupled in 1-way mode with WRF and 2way-mode with NOAH-MP. We have assessed which model tunable parameters, numerical choices and forcing data most impact the performance of our integrated modeling system and have determined an optimal set-up of our meteo-hydrological modeling chain that fully captures the observed heavy rain events and the related river floods. The skill was assessed with respect to available observations of precipitation and river runoff relying on more than 100 raingauge stations and 2 hydrological stations along the river network. The sensitivity results show positive impacts of higher resolution and upgraded land use categories, soil types and topography data on hindcast simulations. It is also found that the tunable parameters of soil infiltration, conductivity and deep

  8. Nitrite consumption and associated isotope changes during a river flood event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacob, Juliane; Sanders, Tina; Dähnke, Kirstin

    2016-10-01

    In oceans, estuaries, and rivers, nitrification is an important nitrate source, and stable isotopes of nitrate are often used to investigate recycling processes (e.g. remineralisation, nitrification) in the water column. Nitrification is a two-step process, where ammonia is oxidised via nitrite to nitrate. Nitrite usually does not accumulate in natural environments, which makes it difficult to study the single isotope effect of ammonia oxidation or nitrite oxidation in natural systems. However, during an exceptional flood in the Elbe River in June 2013, we found a unique co-occurrence of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate in the water column, returning towards normal summer conditions within 1 week. Over the course of the flood, we analysed the evolution of δ15N-NH4+ and δ15N-NO2- in the Elbe River. In concert with changes in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and δ15N SPM, as well as nitrate concentration, δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3-, we calculated apparent isotope effects during net nitrite and nitrate consumption. During the flood event, > 97 % of total reactive nitrogen was nitrate, which was leached from the catchment area and appeared to be subject to assimilation. Ammonium and nitrite concentrations increased to 3.4 and 4.4 µmol L-1, respectively, likely due to remineralisation, nitrification, and denitrification in the water column. δ15N-NH4+ values increased up to 12 ‰, and δ15N-NO2- ranged from -8.0 to -14.2 ‰. Based on this, we calculated an apparent isotope effect 15ɛ of -10.0 ± 0.1 ‰ during net nitrite consumption, as well as an isotope effect 15ɛ of -4.0 ± 0.1 ‰ and 18ɛ of -5.3 ± 0.1 ‰ during net nitrate consumption. On the basis of the observed nitrite isotope changes, we evaluated different nitrite uptake processes in a simple box model. We found that a regime of combined riparian denitrification and 22 to 36 % nitrification fits best with measured data for the nitrite concentration decrease and isotope increase.

  9. Evaluation of an early warning system for glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events in Huaraz, Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKinney, D. C.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    People in Cordillera Blanca range in Peru have a long history dealing with natural disasters associated to high mountains; particularly Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF). Examples in the Cordillera Blanca vary from a GLOF that occurred in 1941 that killed more than 5000 people in the city of Huaraz to recent events from Lake Artison Baja in 2012 and Lake 513 on 2010, which were not devastating thanks to safety systems previously installed in those lakes. However, glaciers continue melting leaving new lakes or changing the characteristics of lakes that were previously controlled making safety systems obsolete that worked successfully in the past protecting communities downstream. Lake Palcacocha has evolved from being safe after the installation of a safety system in 1970 to an imminent source of GLOF risk due to the expansion that has occurred during the last 40 years increasing from a volume of 500,000 to 17 million m3. In response to this risk the community in Huaraz is planning an Early Warning System (EWS) that will allow the population to mobilize to a safe area in case a GLOF occurs. In this work we present an adaptation of the LifeSIM model to calculate the benefits from such an EWS using 2007 census data and a FLO-2D flood simulation model. The outputs are the number of people in Huaraz that could lose their life due to a GLOF. Our results indicate that without an EWS around 19,773 people could lose their life; whereas, if an EWS is installed the number of victims reduces to 7344. Finally, if mobilization of the affected population is improved the value reduces to 2865. The results show the importance of the EWS as well as informing and training the population to how to react if a GLOF occurs.

  10. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iceland, Charles

    2015-04-01

    As population growth and economic growth take place, and as climate change accelerates, many regions across the globe are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to flooding. A recent OECD study of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding found that 40 million people were exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event in 2005, and the total value of exposed assets was about US 3,000 billion, or 5% of global GDP. By the 2070s, those numbers were estimated to increase to 150 million people and US 35,000 billion, or roughly 9% of projected global GDP. Impoverished people in developing countries are particularly at risk because they often live in flood-prone areas and lack the resources to respond. WRI and its Dutch partners - Deltares, IVM-VU University Amsterdam, Utrecht University, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - are in the initial stages of developing a robust set of river flood and coastal storm surge risk measures that show the extent of flooding under a variety of scenarios (both current and future), together with the projected human and economic impacts of these flood scenarios. These flood risk data and information will be accessible via an online, easy-to-use Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. We will also investigate the viability, benefits, and costs of a wide array of flood risk reduction measures that could be implemented in a variety of geographic and socio-economic settings. Together, the activities we propose have the potential for saving hundreds of thousands of lives and strengthening the resiliency and security of many millions more, especially those who are most vulnerable. Mr. Iceland will present Version 1.0 of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer and provide a preview of additional elements of the Analyzer to be released in the coming years.

  11. Simulating a 40-year flood event climatology of Australia with a view to ocean-land teleconnections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul

    2015-04-01

    We develop, for the first time, a proof-of-concept version for a high-resolution global flood inundation model to generate a flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent at a native 1 km resolution. The objectives of our study includes (1) deriving an inundation climatology for a continent (Australia) as a demonstrator case to understand the requirements for expanding globally; (2) developing a test bed to assess the potential and value of current and future satellite missions (GRACE, SMAP, ICESat-2, AMSR-2, Sentinels and SWOT) in flood monitoring; and (3) answering science questions such as the linking of inundation to ocean circulation teleconnections. We employ the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to generate a flood inundation climatology. The model will be built from freely available SRTM-derived data (channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography corrected for vegetation canopy using ICESat canopy heights). Lakes and reservoirs are represented and channel hydraulics are resolved using actual channel data with bathymetry inferred from hydraulic geometry. Simulations are run with gauged flows and floodplain inundation climatology are compared to observations from GRACE, flood maps from Landsat, SAR, and MODIS. Simulations have been completed for the entire Australian continent. Additionally, changes in flood inundation have been correlated with indices related to global ocean circulation, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. We will produce data layers on flood event climatology and other derived (default) products from the proposed model including channel and floodplain depths, flow direction, velocity vectors, floodplain water volume, shoreline extent and flooded area. These data layers will be in the form of simple vector and raster formats. Since outputs will be large in size we propose to upload them onto Google Earth under the GEE API license.

  12. Where to measure point rainfall during extreme flash flood events in mountainous catchments?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troch, P. A.; Volkmann, T.; Lyon, S. W.; Gupta, H.

    2009-04-01

    Despite the availability of weather radar data at high spatial (1 km^2) and temporal (5-15 min) resolution, ground-based rain gauges are still needed to accurately estimate storm rainfall input to catchments during flash flood events. This is especially true in mountainous catchments where estimating storm depth and intensity from radar data is more challenging than in flat terrain. Given economical limitations on the number of rain gauges, a long-standing problem in catchment hydrology is where to put the (limited amount of) rain gauges to best capture both storm rainfall depth and temporal variability of storm intensity during extreme events. This study addresses the question whether it is possible to predict the best locations for rain gauge installation given a basin's topography and dominant storm tracks. A network of 40 tipping bucket rain gauges was deployed in the Sabino Canyon catchment near Tucson, AZ, during the summer monsoon season of 2006. An extreme, multi-day rainfall event during 27-31 July 2006 caused record flooding and an unprecedented series of slope failures and debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains. Geostatistics (kriging with external drift, KED) was used to combine the tipping bucket rain gauge observations with NEXRAD weather radar to create rasterized rainfall maps with high spatial (1 km^2) and temporal (15 min) resolution over the entire multi-day rainfall event. We use these KED rainfall maps to determine the optimized locations for an installation of 1 up to 4 rain gauges considering all possible subsets of 1 to 4 grid cells over the entire rainfall event. Our optimization method minimizes both the residual percent bias and the coefficient of correlation between the mean areal rainfall obtained using the KED rainfall maps and mean rainfall determined using each subset. This method was applied to the entire record of rainfall observations to identify networks consisting of 1 to 4 rain gauges which represent the

  13. The Bosna River floods in May 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Globevnik, Lidija; Koprivšek, Maja; Sečnik, Matej; Zabret, Katarina; Đurović, Blažo; Anzeljc, Darko; Kastelic, Janez; Kobold, Mira; Sušnik, Mojca; Borojevič, Darko; Kupusović, Tarik; Kupusović, Esena; Vihar, Anja; Brilly, Mitja

    2016-10-01

    In May 2014, extreme floods occurred in the lower Sava River basin, causing major damage, with catastrophic consequences. Based on the data gathered, the weather situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) Bosna River basin was analysed and the hydrological conditions were provided, including the results of the probability analysis of the size of the recorded precipitation and flow rates. According to the observed data, extremely high precipitation intensities produced specific discharges of 1.0 m3 s-1 km-2. A hydrological model of the Bosna River basin was developed using HBV light for the purposes of reconstructing and forecasting such events more effectively. All analyses confirmed that the May 2014 event was an extreme extraordinary event whose return period greatly exceeds 100 years. The study is the basis for further flood safety measures and flood forecast development in the Bosna River basin.

  14. Slope restoration for a 100-year old canal

    SciTech Connect

    Skaggs, R.L.; Lewis, S.W.; Liebersbach, D.C.

    1995-12-31

    Turlock Irrigation District (TID) is located in the northern portion of the fertile San Joaquin Valley of California. TID`s primary water supply is conveyed from the 100-year-old LaGrange Diversion Dam via their historic Upper Main Canal. The original canal was constructed by excavating into slate bedrock for the uphill (cut) bank, and constructing unmortared rock walls and rock fill for the downhill (fill) embankment; the excavation was then lined with concrete. Soil fill raises of the downhill embankment over the last 30 years have reduced the slope stability to unacceptable levels in the steepest embankment areas. In March of 1994, two surficial slides prompted investigation of the long term embankment stability in the Warehouse Slide Area. Based on results of analysis for various stabilization scenarios, TID chose a stabilization method which included: (1) excavation of an access bench below the existing canal, (2) installation of steel pipe piles through the existing rock fill and into the bedrock, (3) construction of a mechanically stabilized earth (MSE) retaining wall and (4) construction of a soil-cement canal roadway pavement. The design was chosen by the owner because of cost competitiveness compared to other design alternatives and because the construction sequence allowed uninterrupted use of the canal. By using local river cobble for the MSE wall facing material, TID met the desired 50-year design life of the repair while maintaining the area`s historic visual features.

  15. Colloquium: 100 years of mass spectrometry: Perspectives and future trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maher, Simon; Jjunju, Fred P. M.; Taylor, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Mass spectrometry (MS) is widely regarded as the most sensitive and specific general purpose analytical technique. More than a century has passed for MS since the ground-breaking work of Nobel laureate Sir Joseph John Thomson in 1913. This Colloquium aims to (1) give an historical overview of the major instrumentation achievements that have driven mass spectrometry forward in the past century, including those leading up to the initial work of Thomson, (2) provide the nonspecialist with an introduction to MS, and (3) highlight some key applications of MS and explore the current and future trends. Because of the vastness of the subject area and quality of the manifold research efforts that have been undertaken over the last 100 years, which have contributed to the foundations and subsequent advances in mass spectrometry, it should be understood that not all of the key contributions may have been included in this Colloquium. Mass spectrometry has embraced a multitude of scientific disciplines and to recognize all of the achievements is an impossible task, such has been the diverse impact of this invaluable technique. Scientific progress is usually made via the cumulative effort of a large number of researchers; the achievements reported herein are only a representation of that effort.

  16. Pedernales oilfield, eastern Venezuela: The first 100 years

    SciTech Connect

    Gluyas, J.; Oliver, J.; Wilson, W.

    1996-08-01

    Petroleum seeps and surface tar mats attracted oil explorers to Pedernales in eastern Venezuela 100 years ago. Commercial production from the Pedernales Field was established by Creole in 1933. In three production periods, broken by WWII and the end of the Creole-Texaco refining contract, Creole and Lagoven produced about 60 MMSTB from about 60 wells in about 60 years. Peak production was in the late 1950s, when the field delivered 12,000 BOPD. Production was stopped in 1986. In March 1993, BP Venezuela acquired the license to reactivate Pedernales on behalf of Lagoven, and BP`s first well in the field was drilled in August 1994. A second was completed in early 1995. The production from each well was sufficiently encouraging for commerciality to be declared in March 1995. Phase 1 of the field reactivation demanded a production rate of 11,500 BOPD. As of now (September, 1995) six wells, including one gas disposal well, have been completed. Wells have been placed using a combination of old well data and mapping based on a close spaced 2D seismic survey shot in early 1994. Results from these first few wells indicate that the required production rate will be achieved despite severely depleted reservoir pressures. This paper tells the story of reactivation and re-evaluation of one of eastern Venezuela`s oldest oilfields.

  17. [Sheehan's syndrome--a forgotten disease with 100 years' history].

    PubMed

    Krysiak, Robert; Okopień, Bogusław

    2015-01-01

    Although named after Harold Sheehan, postpartum ischemic pituitary necrosis was reported for the first time 100 years ago in Przeglad Lekarski by Leon Konrad Gliński. In the majority of cases, the syndrome is a consequence of severe postpartum bleeding episode resulting in severe hypotension or hemorrhagic shock. The frequency of Sheehan's syndrome has decreased in developed countries as a result of improved obstetrical care, but this clinical entity remains a common cause of hypopituitarism in developing countries. The syndrome is characterized by varying degrees of anterior pituitary dysfunction resulting from the deficiency of multiple pituitary hormones. The order of frequency of hormone loss has generally been found to be growth hormone and prolactin, gonadotropins, ACTH and thyrotropin. Women with Sheehan's syndrome exhibit a variety of signs and symptoms including failure to lactate or resume menses, loss of genital and axillary hair, and often occurring long after delivery clinical manifestations of central hypothyroidism and secondary adrenal insufficiency. Diagnosis is based on laboratory studies, including hormone levels and hormone stimulation tests. Treatment of Sheehan's syndrome involves hormone replacement therapy. The aim of this study is to review current knowledge on clinically relevant aspects of this clinical entity and to provide the reader with recommendations concerning its diagnosis and treatment.

  18. Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and the implications on flood events, typhoon patterns, and agriculture activities in NE Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.-C.; Behling, H.; Lee, T.-Q.; Li, H.-C.; Huh, C.-A.; Shiau, L.-J.; Chang, Y.-P.

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we reconstructed the paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of the floodplain lake in Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated the record of past vegetation, floods, typhoons and agriculture activities of this area, which is sensitive to the hydrological conditions of the West Pacific. High sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations reflected multiple flood events and humid climatic conditions during 100-1400 AD. A shortly interrupted dry phase can be found during 940-1010 AD. The driest phase corresponds to the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA1, 1400-1620 AD) with less disturbance by flood events, which enhanced the occurrence of wetlands (Cyperaceae) and diatom depositions. Humid phases with frequent typhoons are inferred by high percentages of Lagerstroemia and high ratios of planktonic/benthic diatoms, respectively, during 500-700 AD and Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA2, 1630-1850 AD). The occurrences of cultivated Poaceae (Oryza) during 1250-1300 AD and the last ~400 years, reflect agriculture activities, which seems to implicate strongly with the environmental stability. Finally, we found flood events which dominated during the El Niño-like stage, but dry events as well as frequent typhoon events happened during the La Niña-like stage. After comparing our results with the reconstructed proxy for tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in coastal East Asia were strongly affected by the typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls which were influenced by the variation of global temperature, expansion of the Pacific warm pool and intensification of ENSO events.

  19. Response of a hypersaline salt marsh to a large flood and rainfall event along the west coast of southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bornman, T. G.; Adams, J. B.

    2010-04-01

    The Orange Estuary lost 27% (276 ha) of its wetland area near the mouth as a result of bad management practices during the 1980s. The salt marsh has been unable to recover over the last 20 years because of the persistently high soil and groundwater salinity. In 2006, a 1 in 5 year flood occurred that completely covered the desertified salt marsh and floodplain with freshwater. The flood was followed by an above average (>45 mm) winter rainfall. Soil and groundwater sampled in April and August 2004 were compared with 2006 data to quantify the impact of the flood and rainfall event. It was hypothesised that the two freshwater events would significantly reduce the soil and groundwater salinity. However, the results showed no significant difference in sediment electrical conductivity throughout the soil profile over the four sampling periods. Soil moisture and organic content however increased significantly after these events in the surface soil layer. The flood deposited silt and scoured sand from the surface layers in significant quantities. The depth to groundwater in the desertified marsh retained a similar pattern after the flood despite 15 cm changes in depth in places. In 2004 a clear groundwater electrical conductivity gradient was present extending from the less saline north part of the marsh (0-15 mS cm -1) to the central part (120-135 mS cm -1) and decreasing again towards the south (60-75 mS cm -1). The flood served to even out the groundwater salinity across the desertified marsh (60-90 mS cm -1). The flood and high rainfall had a limited impact on the soil and groundwater characteristics. The few significant changes that were recorded were mostly restricted to the surface soil layers and on a small spatial scale. The rainfall did however create numerous pools of low salinity (<60 mS cm -1) water on the marsh surface that provided a brief opportunity for salt marsh seeds to germinate. A further benefit of the flood was the increased tidal reach into the

  20. Insight into variability of spring and flash flood events in Lithuania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meilutytė-Lukauskienė, Diana; Akstinas, Vytautas; Kriaučiūnienė, Jūratė; Šarauskienė, Diana; Jurgelėnaitė, Aldona

    2017-01-01

    In this research, variability of spring (from 1 March to 30 May) and flash (from 1 June to 30 November) floods in rivers of different regions was analysed. The territory of Lithuania is divided into three regions according to hydrological regime of the rivers: Western, Central, and Southeastern. The maximum river discharge data of spring and flash floods [a total of 31 water gauging stations (WGS)] were analysed. Comparison of the data of four periods (1922-2013, 1941-2013, 1961-2013, and 1991-2013) with the data of the reference period (1961-1990) was performed. Analysis included the longest discharge data set of the Nemunas River at Smalininkai WGS (1812-2013) as well. Mixed patterns of flood changes in Lithuanian rivers were detected. The analysis of flood discharges of the Nemunas River indicated that both spring and flash floods in Lithuania were getting smaller.

  1. The Bosna River floods in May 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidmar, A.; Globevnik, L.; Koprivšek, M.; Sečnik, M.; Zabret, K.; Ðurović, B.; Anzeljc, D.; Kastelic, J.; Kobold, M.; Sušnik, M.; Borojevič, D.; Kupusović, T.; Kupusović, E.; Vihar, A.; Brilly, M.

    2015-10-01

    In May 2014, extreme floods occurred in the lower Sava River basin, causing major damage, with catastrophic consequences. Based on the data gathered, the weather situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina's (BiH) Bosna River basin was analysed and the hydrological conditions were provided, including the results of the probability analysis of the size of the recorded precipitation and flow rates. A hydrological model of the Bosna River basin was developed using HBV-light for the purposes of reconstructing and forecasting such events more effectively. All analyses confirmed that the May 2014 event was an extreme event whose returning period greatly exceeds 100 years.

  2. Floods in Kansas City, Missouri and Kansas, September 12-13, 1977

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauth, Leland D.; Carswell, William J.

    1978-01-01

    The storm of September 12-13, 1977, produced as much as 16 inches of rainfall in the Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas area, left 25 persons dead, many homeless, and over 50 million dollars in damages. Flood hydrographs taken from U.S. Geological Survey gaging-stations reflected two storms occurring within 24 hours. Measured precipitation indicated each storm event to be near a 100-year, 24-hour rainfall frequency. Peak discharges determined at selected locations in areas of greater rainfall depths exceeded those of the 100-year floods. (Woodard-USGS)

  3. Improving riparian wetland conditions through evaluation of infiltration and drainage behavior during and after a controlled flood event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, T. A.; Fisher, A. T.; Roche, J. W.

    2009-12-01

    We are conducting an observational and modeling study of a riparian wetland system adjacent to the Tuolumne River, downstream of the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park. The study area is located along the bottom of Poopenaut Valley, a 25 hectare region that contains a diverse mixture of soil, vegetation, and wetland types. The Hetch Hetchy reservoir is part of a water supply system for 2.4 million residents in the San Francisco Bay area. Spring and summer releases of excess water from the reservoir can benefit riparian wetlands within the Poopenaut Valley, but little is known about how shallow wetland soils in the valley respond to rapid inundation and exposure associated with a controlled flood hydrograph. Instruments were deployed within wetlands, along and adjacent to a 300-m stretch of the Tuolumne River in the Poopenaut Valley, to assess soil and shallow wetland response to a controlled flood in Spring 2009. Instruments included stream stage recorders, shallow piezometers, water content sensors, and vertical thermal probe arrays used to assess streambed seepage. Instruments were arranged in vertical clusters along profiles oriented perpendicular and parallel to the river channel. The controlled flood lasted for about four weeks, and increased channel discharge from about 4 cms to a peak near 225 cms, with typical flood discharge of 30 cms. Water content sensors show the influence of soil inundation and penetration of a wetting front within the upper 1 m of soil. Piezometers show a water table response to shallow ground water recharge. Thermal probes show river water seeping into the streambed at the upstream end of the instrumented stretch, and returning to the channel at the downstream end of the stretch, prior to the flood. During the flood event, stream seepage was downward at both locations. We are completing soil grain size analyses in preparation for numerical modeling of unsaturated-saturated conditions to assess controls on the

  4. 1.4 kyrs of flash flood events in the Southern European Alps: implications for extreme precipitation patterns and forcing over the north-western Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Brisset, E.; Guiter, F.; Reyss, J. L.; Chaumillon, E.; Tachikawa, K.; Bard, E.; Delannoy, J. J.

    2012-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events trigger flash floods causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming, especially in the Mediterranean region. However, the relationship between such events and past climate change remains difficult to assess. Indeed, the stochastic nature of extreme event occurrence precludes the identification of trends. This is reinforced by a lack in long-term instrumental data. It is hence essential to reconstruct long-term geological records of intense events to extend documented records beyond the observational data. This will enable a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in the context of global warming and hence improve predictive models. In the framework of Pygmalion research program, a multiproxy investigation of the Lake Allos (2230 m a.s.l., Southern French Alps) sediment sequence revealed the presence of 160 flood-triggered interbedded layers within a 1400-long sequence. Owing to sedimentary and geochemical characteristics and the frequent occurrence, such deposits were interpreted as the result of high-energy sediment inputs during intense torrential floods (i.e. flash-floods), related to extreme precipitation events. Furthermore the significant relationship between the thickness and the basal grain size of the graded beds allowed using the thickness as a proxy of the flood intensity. Trough the comparison with local historic flood reconstructions over the last 400 years, we argue that these flash floods were mostly triggered by autumnal meso-scale intense precipitation events. Since the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the absence of major change in erosion processes and local vegetation dynamics linked to anthropogenic impact led us to interpret the Allos flood record as the proxy for the occurrence of such extreme precipitation events over the last millennium. The frequency of Allos flash-flood events appeared consistent with

  5. Distributed whole city water level measurements from the Carlisle 2005 urban flood event and comparison with hydraulic model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.; Fewtrell, Timothy J.; Hunter, Neil M.; Wilson, Matthew D.; Horritt, Matthew S.

    2009-04-01

    SummaryFlood inundation modelling on urbanised floodplains has become more feasible due to the increased availability of high resolution digital terrain data and computer power. However, studies that validate simulations with spatially distributed measurements are rare, especially for large events. This paper reports one of the most comprehensive validation data sets available to date on an urban flood, collected in January 2005 after a major event in the city of Carlisle, UK. For the first time this case study collated distributed urban maximum water level and extent measurements with gauged hydrographs, LiDAR elevation data and digital Mastermap® data. These data were used to build and calibrate two 2D diffusion wave models at the whole city scale, based on digital elevation data with and without buildings. RMSE between measured and simulated maximum water level was 0.32 m and 0.28 m for the models with and without buildings, respectively, the latter being more accurate due to blockages on the floodplain when building heights were included in the topography. The magnitude of simulation errors compared well with other studies in the literature, and considering potential errors in the measurement data indicates that the diffusion wave approach was adequate to capture the first-order physics relevant here, although a global channel roughness parameter was unable to capture the full spatially-varying dynamics of the flood event.

  6. Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.-C.; Behling, H.; Lee, T.-Q.; Li, H.-C.; Huh, C.-A.; Shiau, L.-J.; Chang, Y.-P.

    2014-10-01

    We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100-1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 - AD 1400-1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 - AD 1630-1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

  7. 11-14 November 2012 Umbria Region (Central Italy) flood event: from prediction to management for civil protection purposes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia; Stelluti, Marco; Zauri, Renato; Ponziani, Francesco; Francioni, Marco; Governatori Leonardi, Federico; Formica, Alessandro; Natazzi, Loredana; Costantini, Sandro

    2013-04-01

    Following laws and regulations concerning extreme natural events management, the Italian national hydrometeorological early warning system is composed by 21 regional offices (Functional Centres - CF). Umbria Region CF is located in Central Italy and provides early warning, monitoring and decision support systems (DSS) when significant flood/landslide events occur. The alert system is based on hydrometric and rainfall thresholds with detailed procedures for the management of critical events in which different roles of authorities and institutions involved are defined. For the real time flood forecasting system, at the CF several operational hydrological and hydraulic models were developed and implemented for a "dynamic" hazard/risk scenario assessment for Civil Protection DSS, useful also for the development of Flood Risk Management Plans according to the European "Floods Directive" 2007/60. In the period 11th-14th November 2012, a significant flood event occurred in Umbria (as well as Tuscany and northern Lazio). The territory was interested by intense and persistent rainfall; the hydro-meteorological monitoring network recorded locally rainfall depth over 300 mm in 72 hours and, generally, values greater than the seasonal averages all over the region. In the most affected area the recorded rainfall depths correspond to centenarian return period: one-third of the annual mean precipitation occurred in 2-3 days. Almost all rivers in Umbria have been involved, exceeding hydrometric thresholds, and several ones overflowed. Furthermore, in some cases, so high water levels have never been recorded by the hydrometric network. As in the major flood events occurred in the last years, dams (Montedoglio and Corbara dams along Tiber River and Casanuova dam along Chiascio River) and other hydraulic works for flood defense (e.g. along Chiani stream) played a very important mitigation role, storing high water volumes and avoiding the overlap of peak discharges downstream. During

  8. The Kankakee Torrent and other large meltwater flooding events during the last deglaciation, Illinois, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, B. Brandon; Hajic, Edwin R.; Clark, James A.; Befus, Kevin M.; Carrell, Jennifer E.; Brown, Steven E.

    2014-04-01

    Evidence of the Kankakee Torrent (Ekblaw and Athy, 1925) includes boulder bars formed on a scoured bedrock surface west of Kankakee, Illinois, and overflow channels that connect several moraine-dammed basins (Wauponsee, Watseka, and Pontiac; Willman and Payne, 1942). Geomorphic evidence of a large scale flood event in the Illinois Valley includes features such as erosional residuals (Hajic, 1990). The age of the Kankakee Torrent is about 19,000 cal yr BP based on the pooled mean of four radiocarbon ages of tundra plant stems and leaves from the Oswego channel complex (median probability = 18,930 cal yr BP, σ1 range, 18,870-18,970 cal yr BP). Analysis of recently obtained sediment cores from the middle Illinois River valley near Havana, Illinois, has revealed the bedrock surface is defended by a mantle of bouldery debris buried by 15 m of mostly slackwater lake sediment. Radiocarbon ages of needles archived in the lake sediment reveal evidence for an early lake phase that post-dates the Kankakee Torrent (18,030-17,530 cal yr BP) and a later lake phase (15,690-13,040 cal yr BP). The radiocarbon ages indicate that the deeply buried bouldery rubble was deposited by the Kankakee Torrent. Consideration of isostasy indicates that the earlier lake phase at Havana may have been associated with downward flexure of land surface in response to glacier loading. The younger lake phase was caused in part by deposition of a sediment dam (the Savanna-Deer Plain terrace) at the mouth of the Illinois River. The lake shoaled due to passing of the isostatic forebulge across the area.

  9. Use of satellite images to determine surface-water cover during the flood event of September 13, 2013, in Lyons and western Longmont, Colorado

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cole, Christopher J.; Friesen, Beverly A.; Wilson, Earl M.; Wilds, Stanley R.; Noble, Suzanne M.

    2015-01-01

    This surface-water cover dataset was created as a timely representation of post-flood ground conditions to support response efforts. This dataset and all processed imagery and derived products were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hddsexplorer.usgs.gov/uplift/hdds/) for distribution to those responding to the flood event.

  10. A database on flash flood events in Campania, southern Italy, with an evaluation of their spatial and temporal distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vennari, Carmela; Parise, Mario; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

    2016-11-01

    This study presents an historical database of flash flood events in the Campania region of southern Italy. The study focuses on small catchments characterized by intermittent flow, generally occurring during and after heavy rainstorms, which can be hydrologically defined as small Mediterranean catchments. As the outlet zones of these catchments (consisting mainly of alluvial fans or fan deltas) are highly urbanized in Campania, the population living in the delivery areas is exposed to high risk. Detailed scrutiny and critical analysis of the existing literature, and of the data inventory available, allowed us to build a robust database consisting of about 500 events from 1540 to 2015, which is continuously updated. Since this study is the first step of a longer project to perform a hazard analysis, information about time and site of occurrence is known for all events. As for the hazard analysis envisaged, collecting information about past events could provide information on future events, in terms of damage and also spatial and temporal occurrence. After introducing the issue of flash floods in Italy we then describe the geological and geomorphological settings of the study area. The database is then presented, illustrating the methodology used in collecting information and its general structure. The collected data are then discussed and the statistical data analysis presented.

  11. From flood-event to climate in an alpine context (Arve valley, France): methodological issues toward the confrontation of historical documentation and geological records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mélo, Alain; Ployon, Estelle; Wilhelm, Bruno; Arnaud, Fabien

    2014-05-01

    Floods are complex multifactor events. As it can occur randomly on a given region, a given singular event does not clearly inform about climate variations. On the contrary, long-time series of well documented events, each one being replaced in its historical and geographical context, should bring valuable information. Such successions can be built-up using heterogeneous historical documentation taken from various social contexts. This is the case of small drainage basin of river Arve and its tributaries (Northern French Alps), on which this paper will focus. We used a plentiful and rich documentation which was elaborated quite exclusively to report damages in the aim of claiming tax abatement. As a consequence each text requires a hard critic to reach the necessary objectivity. The analysis of 18th century treasury archives led first to a geographical reconstruction of floods impacts and second to an unambiguous chronology of events. The contrasted morphology of river Arve drainage basin generates various types of floods, depending on geographical situations: summer flash-floods in the higher parts of valleys (Chamonix, Sixt) or torrential tributaries (Borne); autumn large floods in lower parts (Bonneville); some unusual events concern the whole basin (1733, 1778...). The constitution of long continuous series was thus possible. However, this does not allow evidencing any trend because most of the events are randomly-distributed flash-floods. In return, meteorological contextualization of each event replaces it in a larger climatic perception. Using this way (meteorological archives, comparisons with recently well-documented event) led us to corroborate connections between flood events and changing patterns. In order to go a step further, we led a pilot-study aiming at representing our data in space-time information system using concepts and tools of time geography. This study was limited to year 1930 AD which was rich in various meteorological events leading to

  12. Impact of temporal resolution of inputs on hydrological model performance: An analysis based on 2400 flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficchì, Andrea; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2016-07-01

    Hydro-climatic data at short time steps are considered essential to model the rainfall-runoff relationship, especially for short-duration hydrological events, typically flash floods. Also, using fine time step information may be beneficial when using or analysing model outputs at larger aggregated time scales. However, the actual gain in prediction efficiency using short time-step data is not well understood or quantified. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the performance of hydrological modelling is improved by short time-step data, using a large set of 240 French catchments, for which 2400 flood events were selected. Six-minute rain gauge data were available and the GR4 rainfall-runoff model was run with precipitation inputs at eight different time steps ranging from 6 min to 1 day. Then model outputs were aggregated at seven different reference time scales ranging from sub-hourly to daily for a comparative evaluation of simulations at different target time steps. Three classes of model performance behaviour were found for the 240 test catchments: (i) significant improvement of performance with shorter time steps; (ii) performance insensitivity to the modelling time step; (iii) performance degradation as the time step becomes shorter. The differences between these groups were analysed based on a number of catchment and event characteristics. A statistical test highlighted the most influential explanatory variables for model performance evolution at different time steps, including flow auto-correlation, flood and storm duration, flood hydrograph peakedness, rainfall-runoff lag time and precipitation temporal variability.

  13. Sedimentary processes of the Kusawa Lake torrent system, Yukon, Canada, as revealed by the September 16, 1982 flood event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowey, Grant W.

    2002-08-01

    flood many times larger than a rainfall flood. The frequency of these catastrophic flood events may be once every ˜200 years. Although the Kusawa Lake torrent system is now dormant, the potential for further landslide dams and subsequent catastrophic floods is high and could result in further damage to a campground and private property in the area.

  14. Improvements on flood alleviation in Germany: lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002.

    PubMed

    Petrow, Theresia; Thieken, Annegret H; Kreibich, Heidi; Bahlburg, Cord Heinrich; Merz, Bruno

    2006-11-01

    The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a "Lessons Learned" study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Laender) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for "unthinkable extreme events" beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.

  15. Studies of images of short-lived events using ERTS data. [forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, earthquakes, and floods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deutschman, W. A. (Principal Investigator)

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Detection of short-lived events has continued. Forest fires, oil spills, vegetation damage, volcanoes, storm ridges, earthquakes, and floods have been detected and analyzed.

  16. 100 years after the Marsica earthquake: contribute of outreach activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Addezio, Giuliana; Giordani, Azzurra; Valle, Veronica; Riposati, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Many outreach events have been proposed by the scientific community to celebrate the Centenary of the January 13, 1915 earthquake, that devastated the Marsica territory, located in Central Apennines. The Laboratorio Divulgazione Scientifica e Attività Museali of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV's Laboratory for Outreach and Museum Activities) in Rome, has realised an interactive exhibition in the Castello Piccolomini, Celano (AQ), to retrace the many aspects of the earthquake disaster, in a region such as Abruzzo affected by several destructive earthquakes during its history. The initiatives represent an ideal opportunity for the development of new programs of communication and training on seismic risk and to spread the culture of prevention. The INGV is accredited with the Servizio Civile Nazionale (National Civic Service) and volunteers are involved in the project "Science and Outreach: a comprehensive approach to the divulgation of knowledge of Earth Sciences" starting in 2014. In this contest, volunteers had the opportunity to fully contribute to the exhibition, in particular, promoting and realising two panels concerning the social and environmental consequences of the Marsica earthquake. Describing the serious consequences of the earthquake, we may raise awareness about natural hazards and about the only effective action for earthquake defense: building with anti seismic criteria. After studies and researches conducted in libraries and via web, two themes have been developped: the serious problem of orphans and the difficult reconstruction. Heavy snowfalls and the presence of wolves coming from the high and wild surrounding mountains complicated the scenario and decelerated the rescue of the affected populations. It is important to underline that the earthquake was not the only devastating event in the country in 1915; another drammatic event was, in fact, the First World War. Whole families died and the still alive infants and

  17. Long-term changes in flood event patterns due to changes in hydrological distribution parameters in a rural-urban catchment, Shikoku, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mouri, Goro; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan

    2011-07-01

    This article describes the principal control parameters of flood events and precipitation and the relationships between corresponding hydrologic and climatologic parameters. The long-term generation of runoff and associated processes is important in understanding floods and droughts under changes in climate and land use. This study presents detailed analyses of flood events in a coastal amphitheatre catchment with a total area of 445 km 2 in western Japan, followed by analyses of flood events in both urban and forest areas. Using long-term (1962 to 2002) hydrological and climatological data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, the contributions of precipitation, river discharge, temperature, and relative humidity to flood events were analysed. Flood events could be divided into three types with respect to hydrologic and climatologic principal control parameters: the long-term tendency; medium-term changes as revealed by hydrographs and hyetographs of high-intensity events such as the relative precipitation, river discharge, and temperature; and large events, as shown by the flow-duration curve, with each cluster having particular characteristics. River discharge showed a decreasing tendency of flow quantity during small rainfall events of less than 100 mm/event from the 1980s to the present. An approximately 7% decrease from 44.8 to 37.3% occurred in the percentage of river water supplied by precipitation in the years after the 1980s. For the medium-term changes, no marked change occurred in the flow quantity of the peak point over time in event hydrographs. However, flow quantities before and after the peak tended to decrease by 1 to 2 m 3/s after the 1980s. Theoretical considerations with regard to the influence of hydrologic and climatologic parameters on flood discharge are discussed and examined in terms of observational data. These findings provide a sound foundation for use in hydrological catchment modelling.

  18. Assessment of Potential Flood Events and Impacts at INL's Proposed Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Sites

    SciTech Connect

    A. Jeff Sondrup; Annette L. Schafter

    2010-09-01

    Rates, depths, erosion potential, increased subsurface transport rates, and annual exceedance probability for potential flooding scenarios have been evaluated for the on-site alternatives of Idaho National Laboratory’s proposed remote handled low-level waste disposal facility. The on-site disposal facility is being evaluated in anticipation of the closure of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the INL. An assessment of flood impacts are required to meet the Department of Energy’s Low-Level Waste requirements (DOE-O 435.1), its natural phenomena hazards assessment criteria (DOE-STD-1023-95), and the Radioactive Waste Management Manual (DOE M 435.1-1) guidance in addition to being required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) environmental assessment (EA). Potential sources of water evaluated include those arising from (1) local precipitation events, (2) precipitation events occurring off of the INL (off-site precipitation), and (3) increased flows in the Big Lost River in the event of a Mackay Dam failure. On-site precipitation events include potential snow-melt and rainfall. Extreme rainfall events were evaluated for the potential to create local erosion, particularly of the barrier placed over the disposal facility. Off-site precipitation carried onto the INL by the Big Lost River channel was evaluated for overland migration of water away from the river channel. Off-site precipitation sources evaluated were those occurring in the drainage basin above Mackay Reservoir. In the worst-case scenarios, precipitation occurring above Mackay Dam could exceed the dam’s capacity, leading to overtopping, and eventually complete dam failure. Mackay Dam could also fail during a seismic event or as a result of mechanical piping. Some of the water released during dam failure, and contributing precipitation, has the potential of being carried onto the INL in the Big Lost River channel. Resulting overland flows from these flood sources were evaluated for

  19. Flooding scenarios, hazard mapping and damages estimation: what if the 2011 Cinque Terre event had happened in Genoa?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola; Rossi, Lauro; Dolia, Daniele; Gabellani, Simone; Pignone, Flavio; Masciulli, Cristiano

    2016-04-01

    During the autumn of 2011 two catastrophic very intense rainfall events affected two different parts of the Liguria Region of Italy causing various flash floods, the first occurred in October and the second at the beginning of November. Various studies demonstrated that the two events had a similar genesis and similar triggering elements. In this work we did the exercise of putting the rainfall field of the first event (Cinque Terre area) on the main catchment, stroke by the second event, that has its mouth in correspondence of the biggest city of the Liguria Region: Genoa. A flood forecast framework and a hydraulic model were used as tools to quantitatively carry out a "what if" experiment, a proper methodology for damages estimation is then used to estimate the potential losses and the people affected. The results are interesting, surprising and in such a way worrying: a peak flow with return period larger than 200 years would have occurred with an estimated damage between 120 and 220 million of euros for the city of Genoa, Italy.

  20. Temporal changes in allele frequencies in a small marble trout Salmo marmoratus population threatened by extreme flood events.

    PubMed

    Pujolar, J M; Vincenzi, S; Zane, L; Crivelli, A J

    2016-03-01

    The effect of extreme floods on the genetic composition of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Lipovscek, a tributary of the Soca River in Slovenia, which has been affected by multiple destructive flood events for centuries was investigated. By monitoring genetic variability during the period 2004-2011, apparent signatures of genetic erosion including a decline in observed and expected heterozygosities and allelic richness were observed. Contemporary effective population size was estimated between 11 and 55 individuals, which is congruent with census data. The data suggest asymmetric gene flow between the two sections of the river. The existence of substantial downstream migration (15-19%) was confirmed by paternity analysis. A small (1-3%) upstream migration was also suggested, which was confirmed by tagging data. Overall, low genetic diversity has not prevented the survival of the Lipovscek population, which might be a common feature of salmonid freshwater populations.

  1. Combined Effect of an Atmospheric River and a Cut-off Low in Hiroshima Flooding Event on August 19, 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takayabu, Y. N.; Hirota, N.; Kato, M.; Arakane, S.

    2015-12-01

    An extraordinary precipitation over 100 mmhr-1in Hiroshima on August 19, 2014, caused a flash flood which resulted in 74 fatalities and collapse of 330 houses. In order to examine the meteorological background of this flooding event, we carried out a detailed analysis utilizing rain gauge data, satellite precipitation dataset, and a meso scale and a global scale objective analyses provided from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Then, we performed numerical experiments using a nonhydrostatic compressible equation model called the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS). As a result, a combined effect of an atmospheric river (AR) and a cut-off low (COL) in this flooding event was elucidated. During the event, a filamentary transport of moisture extending from the Indochina Peninsula to the Japanese Islands was observed along the southern side of the subtropical jet, forming an AR. This AR had a deep structure with an amount of free tropospheric moisture comparable to that of the boundary layer. Concurrently, there was a COL, detached from the Mid-Pacific Trough, moving northwestward toward the Japanese Archipelago. With various sensitivity experiments, we concluded that a mid-tropospheric instability associated with the cold core of the COL and a dynamical ascent induced in its foreside, collaboratively worked with the anomalous moisture in the free troposphere associated with the AR, to extraordinarily enhance the precipitation over Hiroshima region. An orographic effect to concentrate the precipitation in this region was also confirmed. An implication on a difference in effects of AR in this event with a climatologically moist boundary layer, from those in the US west coast with a very dry environment, was also obtained. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1503) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan.

  2. 100 Years of Superconductivity: Perspective on Energy Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, Paul

    2011-11-01

    One hundred years ago this past April, in 1911, traces of superconductivity were first detected near 4.2 K in mercury in the Leiden laboratory of Kammerlingh Onnes, followed seventy-five years later in January, 1986, by the discovery of ``high temperature'' superconductivity above 30 K in layered copper oxide perovskites by Bednorz and Mueller at the IBM Research Laboratory in Rueschlikon. Visions of application to the electric power infrastructure followed each event, and the decades following the 1950s witnessed numerous, successful demonstrations to electricity generation, transmission and end use -- rotating machinery, cables, transformers, storage, current limiters and power conditioning, employing both low and high temperature superconductors in the USA, Japan, Europe, and more recently, China. Despite these accomplishments, there has been to date no substantial insertion of superconducting technology in the electric power infrastructure worldwide, and its eventual deployment remains problematic. We will explore the issues delaying such deployment and suggest future electric power scenarios where superconductivity will play an essential central role.

  3. [The 20th century: 100 years of misfortune and splendor].

    PubMed

    Urdaneta-Carruyo, Eliéxer

    2005-01-01

    The 20th century has been one of the most intense and convulsive periods in the History of humanity. A century of paradoxes and contrasts, it began with optimism, it witnessed the apocalypse of two world wars, and finished with unimaginable scientific progress that gave us a new civilization that we cannot yet grasp. In this century, significant events happened that shaped our time and projected their results toward an immediate future. Some of these were providential in understanding man's life, fighting against illnesses and prolonging life, and others were of undeniable social importance for humanity. Some knowledge was based on the work of others. Philosophy was embedded in mathematics, as was science in philosophy, while politics and the economy exercised so decisive an influence in our way of feeling and living that culture and society were affected to the core. Within that century the biggest technological revolution of all the time was also created, as transcendent as it was unimaginable, which put mankind on the road to the stars with the moon landing and in the process created the information society whose signature symbol, the internet, emerged as a new demiurge. However, the 20th century, with all its misfortune and splendor, paradoxes and contrasts, creation and destruction, was the most transcendent in the whole of history and it bequeaths to the future a promising horizon in the search for a renovated meaning of life and a yearning for peaceful coexistence for the whole humanity.

  4. Detection of runaway electrons - a journey 100 years long

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chilingarian, Ashot

    2013-04-01

    In the beginning of last century C.T.R. Wilson proposes that strong electrical field of the thunderclouds might accelerate electrons to very high energies. However, this and many other electromagnetic processes in our atmosphere are poorly understood till now; the key questions about the thundercloud electrification and lightning initiation remain unanswered. During recent decades several observations of gamma ray, electron and neutron fluxes correlated with thunderstorms were reported. Nonetheless, the origin of these fluxes is under debate till now. The direct registration of the particle showers initiated by the runaway electrons (the most popular theory) was missing. We present the experimental evidence of the microsecond duration electron bursts originated from runaway electrons accelerated in thunderclouds. The first direct experimental observation of the RREA process was made at Aragats in 2009 with a network of 16 plastic scintillators distributing on the area of ~ 1000 m2 registering 8-fold enhancement of particle showers during maximal flux of TGE. The statistical analysis of ~200 detected particle showers reveals their systematic difference from the Extensive Air Shower (EAS) events: the density was much lower and spatial spread of the electrons was much more uniform (particle distribution in EAS has characteristic bell-like form). The particle showers from the thunderclouds were named - Cloud extensive showers (CESs). A SEC phenomenon is very rare: only 3 largest TGEs from 300 were accompanied by SEC observation. CESs originated from individual runaway electrons accelerated in the cloud just above the detector. RREA (CES) phenomenon is very local and depends on the height of cloud above detector and on the strength of electric field in it. Both parameters are fast changing and only during several minutes cascades from runaway electrons can be developed enough to cover several thousand square meters of surface. Only very suitable location and large sizes

  5. Flash flood events recorded by air temperature changes in caves: A case study in Covadura Cave (SE Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gázquez, Fernando; Calaforra, José María; Fernández-Cortés, Ángel

    2016-10-01

    On 28th September 2012, more than 150 mm rain fell in just two hours in some points of southeastern Spain, triggering intense flash floods that resulted in the death of ten people and widespread material damage. In the gypsum karst of Sorbas, rainfall intensity reached 33 mm/h. Air temperature monitoring in different levels of Covadura Cave, down to 85 m depth, enabled the effect of this extreme episode on the cave microclimate to be evaluated in real time. The cave air temperature increased by between 0.9 and 4.1 °C as a result of water flow into the cavity and intense mixing of air masses, in addition to the displacement of deeper air masses toward shallower levels produced by fast recharge of the surrounding karst aquifer. The lag between peak rainfall intensity and the highest cave air temperature was 5-6 h, indicating the response time of the karst to this rainfall event. No trends with depth were observed, suggesting that water not only flowed in through the main cave entrance but also through secondary accesses and fractures. Furthermore, the size of the cave passages and the intensity of air turbulence generated by waterfalls in the cave played an important role in producing these temperature differences. Even though the rainfall event lasted 10 h, cave air temperature did not return to pre-flash flood values until more than 20 days later. This indicates that, while waterflow through the cave might stop a few hours after the rainfall event, cave air temperature can be affected over a longer period. This can be explained by slow groundwater level decreasing of the surrounding karst aquifer and latent heat liberation produced by moisture condensation on the cave walls. Our results show how continuous monitoring of air temperature in caves can be a useful tool for evaluating the short-term effects of flash floods in subterranean karst systems.

  6. Juventae Chasma and Maja Valles, Mars: Further Evidence for Multiple Flooding Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gross, C.; Wendt, L.; Dumke, A.; Neukum, G.

    2009-04-01

    -image mosaic with a ground resolution of 12.5 m per pixel. The main processing tasks for the DTM derivation are first a pre-rectification of image data using the global MOLA- based DTM, then a least-squares area-based matching between nadir and the other channels (stereo and photometry) in a pyramidal approach and finally, DTM raster generation. Improved orientation data are necessary for high-resolution digital terrain models and orthoimage mosaics. For this purpose, new exterior and interior orientation data, based on tie-point matching have been used. The bundle adjustment approach for photogrammetric point determination with a three-line camera is a least squares adjustment based on the well known collinearity equations [6]. The construction of the HRSC-DTM is the basis for further investigation of the masses and volumes, transported from Juventae Chasma through Maja Valles. We use HRSC and OMEGA (Mars Express), as well as HiRise and CRISM (Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter) data for generally mapping the target area. Crater counting is carried out using CTX and HRSC images. Results: The results of the first determinations of the impact crater size-frequency distributions are presented in Fig. 2 and 3 and show an age of 1.22 Ga (+/- 0.16 Ga) for the western part of the Maja Valles channel. The southeastern channel (close to the streamlined island) shows older ages of 3.68 Ga (+0.08/-0.17 Ga) and 2.18 Ga (+/- 0.31 Ga). This clearly indicates, that multiple flooding events took place in the area. The first results for Juventae Chasma age determinations indicate an age of 3.33 Ga. Conclusions: The HRSC-DTM enables us to examine the study area most accurately. We dated the formation of the Juventae Chasma with an age of at least 3.33 Ga. The investigated sites at Maja Valles clearly show evidences for multiple outflow events. Some of these events took place before the formation of the sulfate deposits in Juventae Chasma. Further age determinations and mapping will be carried out in

  7. Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City.

    PubMed

    Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Lin, Ning; Botzen, Wouter; Emanuel, Kerry; de Moel, Hans

    2013-05-01

    The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.

  8. Stochastic generation of flood events to extend observed hydrological series by combining a copula model with hydrometeorological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Requena, Ana; Flores, Isabel; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis

    2013-04-01

    A multivariate flood frequency analysis is required for designing some structures like dams. Multivariate copula models are usually used to obtain joint return periods of the flood variables. There exist several families of copulas and a selection procedure is required to find the copula that best fits the observations. Moreover, observed hydrological series are usually short and the fit of the right tail of the copula remains highly uncertain. In this work, a procedure to extend short observed series is proposed by the use of both hydrometeorological modelling and a copula model to generate synthetic hydrographs. The procedure takes synthetic rainstorms events generated by the RainSim software as input. The RIBS rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate the hydrological processes in the basin. The procedure was tested in the Santillana reservoir in Spain, were both RainSim and RIBS models were calibrated prior to this study. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to find the minimum synthetic length that makes the copula selection process robust enough. As computational time of hydrometeorological modelling is not negligible, the extended record from modelling results could be re-extended by the fitted copula, reducing the computation time. This final extended hydrological series can be used to improve flood risk assessment studies. Key words: Stochastic generation, copulas, rainfall-runoff modelling Session: HS7.15 - Hydroclimatic stochastics Convener: S. Grimaldi Co-Conveners: A. A. Carsteanu, D. Koutsoyiannis, X. L. Wang and S. M. Papalexiou

  9. Regional economic impacts of natural hazards - the case of the 2005 Alpine flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfurtscheller, C.

    2014-02-01

    Natural hazards have substantial impacts on economies on all scales. While the measurement of direct effects seems manageable, less is known about the dimensions of economic effects, especially on local and regional scales. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in the Federal State of Tyrol (Austria), which triggered about 264 million Euros in direct losses, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the drivers of economic effects. The main aim of the study was to assess the regional economic impacts on the gross regional product by the 2005 floods without macro-economic modelling techniques using bottom-up data. Using basic quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. Based on this empirical evidence, we estimated the decline in gross regional product in the study area at NUTS-3 level. We observed that disrupted traffic networks, for instance, had very negative effects on the regional economy. In addition, we identified economic winners of severe hazard impacts and estimated the amount of increasing economic flows (economic stimuli), based on compensation payments. Finally, the net effect can be estimated balancing the negative and positive effects of the flood event. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex post loss estimations, and with it, ex ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost-benefit analysis. However, much effort is needed to improve the data basis on economic effects measured as a change in economic flows.

  10. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    recurrence flood plain maps of 10, 50 & 100 years intensity maps along with flood hazard maps for each watershed. It is of utmost significance for this study to be effective that the produced flood intensity and hazard maps will be made available to decision-makers, planners and relevant community stakeholders.

  11. The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i.

    PubMed

    Bahr, Keisha D; Jokiel, Paul L; Rodgers, Kuʻulei S

    2015-01-01

    Until recently, subtropical Hawai'i escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawai'i will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater "kill" event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāne'ohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the "stress period" actually started long before the

  12. Channel Geometry and Flood Flows: Quantifying over-bank flow dynamics during high-flow events in North Carolina's floodplains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovette, J. P.; Duncan, J. M.; Vimal, S.; Band, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Natural riparian areas play numerous roles in the maintenance and improvement of stream water quality. Both restoration of riparian areas and improvement of hydrologic connectivity to the stream are often key goals of river restoration projects. These management actions are designed to improve nutrient removal by slowing and treating overland flow delivered from uplands and by storing, treating, and slowly releasing streamwater from overbank inundation during flood events. A major question is how effective this storage of overbank flow is at treating streamwater based on the cumulative time stream discharge at a downstream location has spent in shallower, slower overbank flow. The North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program maintains a detailed statewide Flood Risk Information System (FRIS) using HEC-RAS modeling, lidar, and detailed surveyed river cross-sections. FRIS provides extensive information regarding channel geometry on approximately 39,000 stream reaches (a slightly coarser spatial resolution than the NHD+v2 dataset) with tens of cross-sections for each reach. We use this FRIS data to calculate volume and discharge from floodplain riparian areas separately from in-channel flow during overbank events. Preliminary results suggest that a small percentage of total annual discharge interacts with the full floodplain extent along a stream reach due to the infrequency of overbank flow events. However, with the significantly different physical characteristics of the riparian area when compared to the channel itself, this overbank flow can provide unique services to water quality. Our project aims to use this information in conjunction with data from the USGS SPARROW program to target non-point source hotspots of Nitrogen and Phosphorus addition and removal. By better understanding the flow dynamics within riparian areas during high flow events, riparian restoration projects can be carried out with improved efficacy.

  13. Impact of flash flood events on the distribution of organic pollutants in surface sediments from a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Mar Menor, SE Spain).

    PubMed

    León, V M; Moreno-González, R; García, V; Campillo, J A

    2017-02-01

    The influence of flash flood events on the input and distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs) in surface sediments from the Mar Menor lagoon were characterized in this study. These contaminants were analyzed in surface water samples collected during two flash flood events in the main surface watercourse which flow into the Mar Menor lagoon. Surface sediments were sampled semiannually before and after flash flood events. The total input of PAHs, OCPs, and PCBs (sorbed + dissolved) during two flash flood events was estimated at 0.98, 1.32, and 0.34 kg, respectively, the main input corresponding to p,p'-DDE (1.00 kg). The distribution of organic contaminants in surface sediments was not homogeneous as a consequence of the presence of many simultaneous sources and different meteorological, hydrodynamic, and physicochemical conditions. As a consequence of flash flood events, p,p'-DDE concentrations in surface sediments increased significantly in the central and south zones of the lagoon. However, in the case of PCBs, a dilution effect was observed in the south zone after such events, reducing the environmental risk. These changes in the pollutant distribution persisted at least 1 year later (autumn 2010), showing that the impact of flood events in the distribution of persistent organic contaminants in Mediterranean coastal lagoons is of relevance according to the ecological risk assessment carried out. The impact of these events should be also considered in other coastal systems, especially in semiarid and semiconfined areas.

  14. Secular changes in growth among Japanese children over 100 years (1900-2000).

    PubMed

    Kagawa, Masaharu; Tahara, Yasuaki; Moji, Kazuhiko; Nakao, Rieko; Aoyagi, Kiyoshi; Hills, Andrew P

    2011-01-01

    Human growth is associated with complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. While research has reported increased body size and body mass index (BMI) of Japanese children, few studies have compared the magnitude of increments in growth before and after World War II (WW II) and also considered other social and economical events that may have influenced the growth of children. The current study assessed the secular change in growth in Japanese children and adolescents aged between 6 and 17 years using data from the School Health Statistics Survey conducted between 1900 and 2000 with consideration of key social changes during the 20th Century. Over the 100-year period, Japanese boys had height and weight increments of 1.0-2.0 cm per decade and 0.4-1.7 kg per decade whereas girls had rates of 1.1-1.9 cm and 0.4-1.5 kg per decade, respectively. The rates of height increment were significantly (p<0.05) different between pre-, during and post-WW II periods. While Japanese children were considerably larger in 2000 compared to 1900, increments between 1950 and 1960 reflected catch-up growth to restore physical size seen in children prior to WW II. The increments in body size continued after 1960 with greatest changes seen across the pubertal years. While increments in BMI were evident in most age groups, the BMI of 17-year-old girls was consistent over the 100 years. Results clarified secular changes in growth in Japanese school children across the 20th Century and possible factors contributing to these changes.

  15. Sediment transport during flash flood events on an intermittent river: an experimental laboratory study.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moustabachir, H.; Chahinian, N.; Romieux, N.; Vittenet, J.; Gayrard, E.; Tournoud, M. G.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods have a number of impacts on the water quality of river systems because the later is the resultant of pollutant input into the river and its transformation along its course. In the case of intermittent rivers this impact is increased by the long drought periods that usually precede such floods. Indeed, the pollutants are known to accumulate in the dry river sediments during the drought period and are flushed away by the first floods. The Vène, a small experimental catchment (67 km²) located in southern France is a perfect example of this type of behavior. The field data collected on the catchment since 1994 through routine and flood monitoring clearly show an increase in suspended solids and nutrient concentrations during flash floods. However, the hydraulic conditions which lead to the triggering of sediment movement and re-suspension are not known. The aim of this study is to investigate sediment re-suspension mechanisms by reproducing the dynamics of sediment movement during flash floods at the reach scale in controlled laboratory conditions. A rectangular flume (6m*0.29m*0.18m) is used as a scale model of a 1 km reach. Variable flow conditions can be set in the flume through a quarter turn valve. Discharge values are monitored using an electromagnetic flow meter and water velocity measurements are carried out in the flume using a Pitot probe coupled to a digital manometer. Dynamic similarity is imposed between the reach and the flume i.e. the reach's Froude number is set equal to that of the flume. The reach's rating curve is used to determine a set of experimental height and flow values for the flume. For each test, the slope of the flume is modified in order to respect the rating curve. The flume's bed is reconstructed by respecting the similarity ratios determined previously using glass micro beads to represent its sediments. Various tests are carried out in steady-state conditions for different discharge values. In transient conditions, the

  16. Flood Summary Report, Nooksack, Skagit and Snohomish River Basins November 1990 Events

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-07-18

    elevation of Avenue "A", with a staff gauge reading of 3.5 feet above flood stage. b. The Stilliguamish from Stanwood to Oso was observed. C. Russ...River. Mr. Sass accompanied COE personnel as they continued to inspect levees and a washed out bridge downstream to Oso . Two bridges might qualify for...how bmTOM underrnined by walor Mod roads Hervue affected by landslides now cleared. SlWkormnmn Mum Lem break cmW Carnation flooft in Slowsh River

  17. High Resolution Simulations of a Severe Hail Storm and Flooding Event over La Paz city with WRF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamuriano, Marcelo; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    On February 19, 2002 a very local hail storm and a flash flood episode occurred in La Paz city, Bolivia. About 40 millimeters of precipitation in over an hour was observed, it was the strongest rainfall registered until that date. This event caused at least 69 causalities and important damages to the city's infrastructure, being considered as an exceptional natural disaster. It is thought that the vertical humid air motion driven by the high surface temperatures and topographical forcing is the responsible of such event, nevertheless a formal study about the atmospheric features leading to this episode has not been done yet. In order to overcome this issue, a series of high resolution numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model is conducted using two global datasets: GFS and ECMWF. Several micro-physics schemes are used in a four-nested domain configuration with 2 kilometers as finest resolution, giving more details about the effects topography on this event. Overall, high-resolution simulations improves the spatial distribution of rainfall and represents better the local atmospheric circulation leading to this extreme event.

  18. An observational and numerical study of a flash flood event in Eastern Marmara Region.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahraman, A.

    2010-09-01

    Warm season cut-off cyclones over North-western Anatolia frequently triggers storms with heavy precipitation over Marmara and Western Black Sea Region. Since the area is highly urbanized with a deficiency in substructure, an important percentage of these storms result in flash floods, producing severe damage and fatalities. A heavy precipitation case from 5th to 9th of June, 2010 is studied. With the large scale circulation of the cut-off low, the storm system over Northern Anatolia moved Black Sea, and after getting richer in moisture, turned back to land over Eastern Marmara Region resulting more than 100 mm of precipitation in 24 hours. A peak of 77 mm in 6 hours is observed at Istanbul Sabiha Gokcen Airport on 7th of June, 2010. Damage in some buildings and one death occured related with the flash flood. In addition to synoptic charts, satellite data, surface and upper air observations, numerical simulation with WRF-ARW is used to make a mesoscale analysis of the meteorological conditions. Heavy rain ingredients such as conditionally unstability, low level jet and high moisture exist over the region according to the model output. Precipitable water and storm relative helicity values are mature and CAPE is moderate.

  19. Effect of flood events on transport of suspended sediments, organic matter and particulate metals in a forest watershed in the Basque Country (Northern Spain).

    PubMed

    Peraza-Castro, M; Sauvage, S; Sánchez-Pérez, J M; Ruiz-Romera, E

    2016-11-01

    An understanding of the processes controlling sediment, organic matter and metal export is critical to assessing and anticipating risk situations in water systems. Concentrations of suspended particulate matter (SPM), dissolved (DOC) and particulate (POC) organic carbon and metals (Cu, Ni, Pb, Cr, Zn, Mn, Fe) in dissolved and particulate phases were monitored in a forest watershed in the Basque Country (Northern Spain) (31.5km(2)) over three hydrological years (2009-2012), to evaluate the effect of flood events on the transport of these materials. Good regression was found between SPM and particulate metal concentration, making it possible to compute the load during the twenty five flood events that occurred during the study period at an annual scale. Particulate metals were exported in the following order: Fe>Mn>Zn>Cr>Pb>Cu>Ni. Annual mean loads of SPM, DOC and POC were estimated at 2267t, 104t and 57t, respectively, and the load (kg) of particulate metals at 76 (Ni), 83 (Cu), 135 (Pb), 256 (Cr), 532 (Zn), 1783 (Mn) and 95170 (Fe). Flood events constituted 91%-SPM, 65%-DOC, 71%-POC, 80%-Cu, 85%-Ni, 72%-Pb, 84%-Cr, 74%-Zn, 87%-Mn and 88%-Fe of total load exported during the three years studied. Flood events were classified into three categories according to their capacity for transporting organic carbon and particulate metals. High intensity flood events are those with high transport capacity of SPM, organic carbon and particulate metals. Most of the SPM, DOC, POC and particulate metal load was exported by this type of flood event, which contributed 59% of SPM, 45% of organic carbon and 54% of metals.

  20. Historic Flooding in Georgia, 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gotvald, Anthony J.

    2010-01-01

    Heavy rains in southern Georgia during March 27-April 3, 2009, and in northern Georgia during September 16-22, 2009, caused severe flooding and widespread damages to residential, public, and commercial structures. Of the 159 counties in Georgia, 69 were declared disaster areas because of flooding. The heavy rainfall in southern Georgia resulted in severe flooding in the Satilla-St. Marys and upper Ochlockonee Basins and caused approximately $60 million in damages to the public infrastructure. The heavy rainfall in northern Georgia resulted in severe flooding on many streams within the upper Chattahoochee, Altamaha, and Coosa-Tallapoosa Basins and caused 10 deaths, evacuation of thousands of residents, and approximately $500 million in damages. The U.S. Geological Survey computed annual exceedance probabilities of the peak flows in 2009 at 238 streamgages throughout the State. Record peak flows were recorded at 40 streamgages for the respective periods of record as a result of the heavy rainfall during the two multiday events. The peak flows at 33 streamgages exceeded the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (100-year recurrence interval), and 19 of these exceeded the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability (500-year recurrence interval).

  1. The role of the sea on the flash floods events over Liguria (northwestern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassola, F.; Ferrari, F.; Mazzino, A.; Miglietta, M. M.

    2016-04-01

    The sensitivity to sea surface temperature (SST) of small-scale, flood-causing convective systems in Mediterranean coastal areas is analyzed by means of mesoscale numerical simulations. Two different SST initializations are considered: a coarse field provided by a global atmospheric model and a high-resolution multisatellite analysis. Quantitative precipitation forecasts are evaluated for a number of recent severe rainfall episodes in Liguria (northwestern Italy). In several cases, using a higher-resolution SST leads to more realistic precipitation estimates in the forecasting range 36-48 h. In the shorter range, the satellite SST has a limited, or even negative, impact, due to the relatively slow adjustment of initial atmospheric fields. In one case, the satellite SST is beneficial for the only run forced with accurate large-scale initial conditions. The results of this work suggest that a potentially significant improvement in severe precipitation forecasting in the Mediterranean could be achieved using realistic small-scale SST fields.

  2. Sedimentary infill dynamic and associated trace element temporal trends in a dam reservoir: evidence of high polluted sediment storage after major flood events (Upper Loire river, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhivert, Elie; Grosbois, Cécile; Desmet, Marc; Coynel, Alexandra; Lefevre, Irène

    2014-05-01

    The Villerest Dam, was built in the Upper Loire river during the early 1980's, 80 km downstream of the most important industrial and coal mining area of the basin. It constitutes an important trap of sediments and associated pollutants since its operation in 1984. A 154 cm long core was sampled in 2010, in a former channel levee in the reservoir. This study highlights (i) important sediment accumulation rate during flood events in the reservoir, (ii) the influence of high discharge events in sedimentary infill in terms of stored sediment quality, geochemical markers and anthropogenic sources influence. Coupling sedimentological analyses and 137Cs datation allows to define 3 sedimentary units in this core. The deepest unit corresponds to transported and/or reworked fluvial sediments undated, the uppermost unit to lacustrine sediments post 1984 and between, to a transition unit resulting from the reservoir water infilling in 1983-1984. In addition, the upper unit shows 3 turbiditic-like layers (of 6, 20 and 13 cm thick) corresponding respectively to 1996, 2003 and 2008 major flood events (more than 20-year flood average daily outflow). These flood sequences result from underflow sedimentary inputs and contribute to 43% of the 151 kg/m² of accumulated sediments since 1984. Over the 1984-2010 period, sediments show a general contamination decrease but major flood events transport highly impacted sediments (highest enrichment factor > 20 for Hg and >10 for Cd and Bi), never reached during interflood periods. During these events, trace elements (TE) are mostly associated to organic fraction and clays. Rich-TE solid sources appear to be only solicited, and/or severely amplified, during important flood events over the recording period. In addition to these pollutants inputs, floods also bring an important detrital fraction, diluting anthropogenic TE signal. In details, flood deposits show variations of sedimentological and geochemical signals delimiting two distinct

  3. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  4. Using HAZUS-MH for modelling past coastal flooding events in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, T.; Charvet, I.; Gunasekera, R.

    2012-04-01

    In regions at risk from natural hazards, the ability to pre-determine the vulnerability and exposure of buildings (residential, commercial, industrial and government) from multiple hazard scenarios, allows policy makers and businesses to put forward appropriate policies, planning and intervention methods to mitigate the financial impact. For this purpose, a number of catastrophe models have been developed to provide the decision makers with quantitative risk assessments based on science and engineering knowledge. One of the most sophisticated open source models currently available is HAZUS-MH. The software is a powerful tool for analysing potential losses from floods, hurricane winds, and earthquakes. It was initially designed by FEMA to work with US datasets and has proven to be a great resource for disaster management at both national and local level in order to plan and increase the awareness of the recovery process after a natural disaster. Methodologies have been introduced to export the HAZUS-MH model for global applications. However, currently the international community have been slow to act on this technology breakthrough. The applications of this project will focus on adapting the HAZUS-HM model to provide a reliable vulnerability assessment of Japan's building stock from tsunami flooding. A review of the different methodologies will be carried out and presented as guidance on the best practice. The numerical assessment reports will be compared to real scenarios based on field observations, financial bulletins and government reports. A sensitivity analysis will be carried out on the generation of bespoke datasets based on the quality and density of the available regional data. These results will be compared against results using proxy US datasets. In addition, the significance of regional building standards and practices will be incorporated into the model through the development of new damage functions. The level of confidence and sensitivity (building

  5. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  6. From Anzac to Afghanistan: have 100 years taught us nothing about the devastation of war?

    PubMed

    Carragee, Eugene J

    2015-12-01

    Commentary On: Atkinson Brigadier (Ret'd) RN, Fraser RD. 100 years-Anzac, Vietnam to now. Spine J 2015:15:2454-6 (in this issue). Robertson PA. Gallipoli 100 years on: a New Zealand perspective. Spine J 2015:15:2457-8 (in this issue).

  7. Spatial distribution and frequency of precipitation during an extreme event: July 2006 mesoscale convective complexes and floods in southeastern Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, Peter G.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Webb, Robert H.; Pytlak, Erik; Troch, Peter A.; Lyon, Steve W.

    2009-07-01

    An extreme, multiday rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 caused record flooding and a historically unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. An unusual synoptic weather pattern induced repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems over southeastern Arizona for five continuous days, generating multiday rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Analysis of point rainfall and weather radar data yielded storm totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains at 754 grid cells approximately 1 km × 1 km in size. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was not unusual for typical monsoonal precipitation in this region (recurrence interval (RI) < 1 year), but multiday rainfall where slope failures occurred had RI > 50 years and individual grid cells had RI exceeding 1000 years. The 31 July storms caused the watersheds to be essentially saturated following 4 days of rainfall.

  8. Spatial distribution and frequency of precipitation during an extreme event: July 2006 mesoscale convective complexes and floods in southeastern Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffiths, P.G.; Magirl, C.S.; Webb, R.H.; Pytlak, E.; Troch, Peter A.; Lyon, S.W.

    2009-01-01

    An extreme, multiday rainfall event over southeastern Arizona during 27-31 July 2006 caused record flooding and a historically unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson. An unusual synoptic weather pattern induced repeated nocturnal mesoscale convective systems over southeastern Arizona for five continuous days, generating multiday rainfall totals up to 360 mm. Analysis of point rainfall and weather radar data yielded storm totals for the southern Santa Catalina Mountains at 754 grid cells approximately 1 km ?? 1 km in size. Precipitation intensity for the 31 July storms was not unusual for typical monsoonal precipitation in this region (recurrence interval (RI) < 1 year), but multiday rainfall where slope failures occurred had RI > 50 years and individual grid cells had RI exceeding 1000 years. The 31 July storms caused the watersheds to be essentially saturated following 4 days of rainfall. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Evaluation of High-Resolution Precipitation Estimates from Satellites during July 2012 Beijing Flood Event Using Dense Rain Gauge Observations

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Sheng; Liu, Huijuan; You, Yalei; Mullens, Esther; Hu, Junjun; Yuan, Ye; Huang, Mengyu; He, Li; Luo, Yongming; Zeng, Xingji; Tang, Guoqiang; Hong, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Satellite-based precipitation estimates products, CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS, were evaluated with a dense rain gauge network over Beijing and adjacent regions for an extremely heavy precipitation event on July 21 2012. CMORPH and PEERSIANN-CSS misplaced the region of greatest rainfall accumulation, and failed to capture the spatial pattern of precipitation, evidenced by a low spatial correlation coefficient (CC). CMORPH overestimated the daily accumulated rainfall by 22.84% while PERSIANN-CCS underestimated by 72.75%. In the rainfall center, both CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS failed to capture the temporal variation of the rainfall, and underestimated rainfall amounts by 43.43% and 87.26%, respectively. Based on our results, caution should be exercised when using CMORPH and PERSIANN-CCS as input for monitoring and forecasting floods in Beijing urban areas, and the potential for landslides in the mountainous zones west and north of Beijing. PMID:24691358

  10. Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plank, C.

    2013-12-01

    Climate and land use changes are altering global, regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, past events may not accurately represent the events that will occur in the future. Methods for hydrologic prediction, both statistical and deterministic, require adequate data for calibration. Streamflow gauges tend to be located on large rivers. As a result, statistical flood frequency analysis, which relies on gauge data, is biased towards large watersheds. Conversely, the complexity of parameterizing watershed processes in deterministic hydrological models limits these to small watersheds. Spatial scaling relationships between drainage basin area and discharge can be used to bridge these two methodologies and provide new approaches to hydrologic prediction. The relationship of discharge (Q) to drainage basin area (A) can be expressed as a power function: Q = αAθ. This study compares scaling exponents (θ) and coefficients (α) for floods of varying magnitude across a selection of major Atlantic Coast watersheds. Comparisons are made by normalizing flood discharges to a reference area bankfull discharge for each watershed. These watersheds capture the geologic and geomorphic transitions along the Atlantic Coast from narrow bedrock-dominated river valleys to wide coastal plain watersheds. Additionally, there is a range of hydrometeorological events that cause major floods in these basins including tropical storms, thunderstorm systems and winter-spring storms. The mix of flood-producing events changes along a gradient as well, with tropical storms and hurricanes increasing in dominance from north to south as a significant cause of major floods. Scaling exponents and coefficients were determined for both flood quantile estimates (e.g. 1.5-, 10-, 100-year floods) and selected hydrometeorological events (e.g. hurricanes, summer thunderstorms, winter-spring storms). Initial results indicate that southern coastal plain watersheds have lower scaling exponents (θ) than

  11. Constraints on the Cretaceous thermal event in the Transantarctic Mountains from alteration processes in Ferrar flood basalts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molzahn, M.; Wörner, G.; Henjes-Kunst, F.; Rocholl, A.

    1999-12-01

    K-Ar and 40Ar/ 39Ar incremental-heating analyses on apophyllite formed during hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks from the Ferrar Supergroup in North Victoria Land, Antarctica, provide strong evidence for hydrothermal events during mid-Cretaceous time. A last event has been dated at 96.7±0.6 Ma. Variable older ages between 112 and 125 Ma are interpreted as mixed ages of hydrothermal events or may be caused by disturbances of the Ar-Ar system. The Rb-Sr isotope system of the apophyllites is not applicable to dating because a large portion of the Sr is radiogenic and because of Rb-mobility in the crystal structure. Secondary mineralogy suggests a temperature for alteration between 300° and 400°C. Assuming a normal thermal gradient, this temperature implies a burial depth of about 10 km. However, there is no evidence for such a burial of the Ferrar flood basalts. Therefore, an elevated thermal gradient in mid-Cretaceous time in combination with circulating fluids is proposed for the origin of the alteration phenomena.

  12. Extreme Rainfall and Flood Events for the Hudson River Induced by Tropical Cyclones: a Statistical Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conticello, F.; Hall, T. M.; Lall, U.; Orton, P. M.; Cioffi, F.; Georgas, N.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. That points are the closure sections of five different watersheds. Two different approaches are used and compared: 1) an ANN-cyclone/rainfall clustering model which calculates the rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed, that are then used as inputs of an ANN rainfall/runoff model; 2) an ANN/ Bayesian multivariate approach that translates the TC attributes ( track, SST, Velocities,..) directly in streamflows in the tributaries. Finally, the streamflows of the tributaries of the Hudson River are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly and daily station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Seven stream gauges (Croton River, Rondout Creek, Wappinger Creek, Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford) and over 20 rain gauges are

  13. Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions in river flood defences to uncertainty in climate impact analysis: A case study on the River Suir, Ireland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, N.; Murphy, C.

    2009-12-01

    Climate change presents a challenging environment for policy makers and planners as future climate projections are fraught with uncertainty. From the formulation of emissions scenarios, through to the output from Global Climate Models to the regional and then the local scale, uncertainty propagates and increases leading to a cascade of uncertainty (Jones, 2001). The level of flood defences for rivers in Ireland has been built to withstand the 1 in 100 year event based on the historic record. However, stream flow due to climate change is likely to increase by 20% in winter by mid century. The Office of Public Works has therefore revised their projections by adding 20% to the 1 in 100 year event as a design feature of their new flood defences. This poster presents a sensitivity analysis of how various aspects of the climate impact assessment affect the revised level of the 1 in 100 year flood. The River Suir is used as a case study. This poster aims to quantify how different aspects of climate impact assessment uncertainty (GCM, Emissions scenario, impact model) affect the revised level of the 1 in 100 year flood and evaluates if the design of flood defences remains robust to the this uncertainty. Authors. Nuala Murphy Conor Murphy

  14. Revisiting extreme storms of the past 100 years for future safety of large water management infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.

  15. Simulation of water-surface elevations for a hypothetical 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho

    SciTech Connect

    Berenbrock, C.; Kjelstrom, L.C.

    1997-10-01

    Delineation of areas at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory that would be inundated by a 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek is needed by the US Department of Energy to fulfill flood-plain regulatory requirements. Birch Creek flows southward about 40 miles through an alluvium-filled valley onto the northern part of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental laboratory site on the eastern Snake River Plain. The lower 10-mile reach of Birch Creek that ends in Birch Creek Playa near several Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory facilities is of particular concern. Twenty-six channel cross sections were surveyed to develop and apply a hydraulic model to simulate water-surface elevations for a hypothetical 100-year peak flow in Birch Creek. Model simulation of the 100-year peak flow (700 cubic feet per second) in reaches upstream from State Highway 22 indicated that flow was confined within channels even when all flow was routed to one channel. Where the highway crosses Birch Creek, about 315 cubic feet per second of water was estimated to move downstream--115 cubic feet per second through a culvert and 200 cubic feet per second over the highway. Simulated water-surface elevation at this crossing was 0.8 foot higher than the elevation of the highway. The remaining 385 cubic feet per second flowed southwestward in a trench along the north side of the highway. Flow also was simulated with the culvert removed. The exact location of flood boundaries on Birch Creek could not be determined because of the highly braided channel and the many anthropogenic features (such as the trench, highway, and diversion channels) in the study area that affect flood hydraulics and flow. Because flood boundaries could not be located exactly, only a generalized flood-prone map was developed.

  16. Upper limits of flash flood stream power in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchi, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Marco; Amponsah, William; Borga, Marco; Crema, Stefano

    2016-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by strong spatial gradients of rainfall inputs that hit different parts of a river basin with different intensity. Stream power values associated with flash floods therefore show spatial variations that depend on geological controls on channel geometry and sediment characteristics, as well as on the variations of flood intensity: this stresses the need for a field approach that takes into account the variability of the controlling factors. Post-flood assessment of peak discharge after major floods makes it possible to analyse stream power in fluvial systems affected by flash floods. This study analyses the stream power of seven intense (return period of rainfall > 100 years at least in some sectors of the river basin) flash floods that occurred in mountainous basins of central and southern Europe from 2007 to 2014. In most of the analysed cross sections, high values of unit stream power were observed; this is consistent with the high severity of the studied floods. The highest values of cross-sectional stream power and unit stream power usually occur in Mediterranean regions. This is mainly ascribed to the larger peak discharges that characterize flash floods in these regions. The variability of unit stream power with catchment area is clearly nonlinear and has been represented by log-quadratic relations. The values of catchment area at which maximum values of unit stream power occur show relevant differences among the studied floods and are linked to the spatial scale of the events. Values of stream power are generally consistent with observed geomorphic changes in the studied cross sections: bedrock channels show the highest values of unit stream power but no visible erosion, whereas major erosion has been observed in alluvial channels. Exceptions to this general pattern, which mostly occur in semi-alluvial cross sections, urge the recognition of local or event-specific conditions that increase the resistance of channel bed and

  17. The 2014 coral bleaching and freshwater flood events in Kāneʻohe Bay, Hawaiʻi

    PubMed Central

    Jokiel, Paul L.; Rodgers, Kuʻulei S.

    2015-01-01

    Until recently, subtropical Hawaiʻi escaped the major bleaching events that have devastated many tropical regions, but the continued increases in global long-term mean temperatures and the apparent ending of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cool phase have increased the risk of bleaching events. Climate models and observations predict that bleaching in Hawaiʻi will occur with increasing frequency and increasing severity over future decades. A freshwater “kill” event occurred during July 2014 in the northern part of Kāneʻohe Bay that reduced coral cover by 22.5% in the area directly impacted by flooding. A subsequent major bleaching event during September 2014 caused extensive coral bleaching and mortality throughout the bay and further reduced coral cover in the freshwater kill area by 60.0%. The high temperature bleaching event only caused a 1.0% reduction in live coral throughout the portion of the bay not directly impacted by the freshwater event. Thus, the combined impact of the low salinity event and the thermal bleaching event appears to be more than simply additive. The temperature regime during the September 2014 bleaching event was analogous in duration and intensity to that of the large bleaching event that occurred previously during August 1996, but resulted in a much larger area of bleaching and coral mortality. Apparently seasonal timing as well as duration and magnitude of heating is important. Coral spawning in the dominant coral species occurs early in the summer, so reservoirs of stored lipid in the corals had been depleted by spawning prior to the September 2014 event. Warm months above 27 °C result in lower coral growth and presumably could further decrease lipid reserves, leading to a bleaching event that was more severe than would have happened if the high temperatures occurred earlier in the summer. Hawaiian reef corals decrease skeletal growth at temperatures above 27 °C, so perhaps the “stress period” actually started long

  18. Flash floods and debris flow: how the risk could can be better managed? The case of the events in Sicily on October 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aronica, Giuseppe T.; Brigandi', Giuseppina

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods are phenomena in which the important hydrologic processes are occurring on the same spatial and temporal scales as the intense precipitation. Most of the catchments of the Messina area in the North-East part of Sicily (Italy), are prone to flash flood formation. They are, in fact, small, with a steep slope, and characterised by short concentration times. Moreover, those catchments are predominantly rural in the upper mountainous part, while the areas next to the outlet are highly urbanized with areas that cover not only the floodplain but also the river bed itself as the main roads were previously part of the torrent. This situation involve an high risk of economic losses and human life in case of flash flood in these areas. In the last years the area around Messina has been interested by severe flash floods and debris flow. The events occurred on 25th October 2007 in the Mastroguglielmo torrent and 1st October 2009 on Racinazzi and Gianpilieri torrents are an example of flash floods and debris flow events that caused not only significant economic damages to property, buildings, roads and bridges but also, for this that concern the 1st October 2009 flash flood, loss of human life. The main focus of this work is, basing on the post event analysis of the 2009 flash flood event, to try to understand which could be the better preventive measures and mitigation strategies that can be provided for a better risk management in these areas too many times affected by devastating events. Flood management can be controlled by either structural or non-structural measures. Adoption of a certain measure depends critically on the hydrological and hydraulic characteristics of the river system and the region. Flash flood management includes a number of phases that should be included in any management strategy like prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Forecasting based on hydrological precursors based on the soil moisture condition at the

  19. Comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics - the flood event in eastern Europe in May 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winschall, A.; Pfahl, S.; Sodemann, H.; Wernli, H.

    2014-07-01

    Moisture convergence from different sources is an important prerequisite for a heavy-precipitation event. The contributions from different source regions can, however, hardly be quantified from observations, and their assessment based on model results is complex. Two conceptually different numerical methods are widely used for the quantification of moisture sources: Lagrangian approaches based on the analysis of humidity variations along backward trajectories and Eulerian methods based on the implementation of moisture tracers into a numerical model. In this study the moisture sources for a high-impact, heavy-precipitation event that affected eastern Europe in May 2010 are studied with both Eulerian and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. The precipitation event was connected to a cyclone that developed over northern Africa, moved over the Mediterranean towards eastern Europe and induced transport of moist air towards the Carpathian Mountains. Heavy precipitation and major flooding occurred in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia between 16 and 18 May 2010. The Lagrangian and Eulerian diagnostics consistently indicate a wide spatial and temporal range of moisture sources contributing to the event. The source with the largest share is local evapotranspiration from the European land surface, followed by moisture from the North Atlantic. Further contributions come from tropical western Africa (10-20° N) and the Mediterranean Sea. Contrary to what could be expected, the Mediterranean contribution of about 10% is relatively small. A detailed analysis of exemplary trajectories corroborates the general consistency of the two approaches, and underlines their complementarity. The Lagrangian method allows for mapping out moisture source regions with computational efficiency, whereas the more elaborate Eulerian model requires predefined moisture sources, but includes also processes such as precipitation, evaporation and turbulent mixing. However, in the Eulerian model

  20. Floods of April 1983 in southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carlson, Darrell D.; Firda, Gary D.

    1983-01-01

    Extreme flooding occurred in April 1983 in southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana. The floods resulted from a near-stationary cold front, which moved slowly across Louisiana and Mississippi. Flood heights and discharges of many streams exceeded previously known maximums of record, and for many the recurrence interval of peak discharge exceeded 100 years. On Black Creek, near Brooklyn, Miss., the previous maximum stage (since 1961) was exceeded by 4.26 ft, and the April 7 peak discharge of 42,500 cu ft/sec was about two times the previous maximum discharge. This flood exceeded the 100-yr event. In southeastern Louisiana, the area with the most severe flooding was in the Bogue Chitto basin. At the Franklinton, LA, Station, the April 7 peak discharge of 125,000 cu ft/sec was more than two times the previous maximum discharge. In April 1900 the stage at this site was 29.6 ft, 4.9 ft higher than the April 1981 peak. An extreme event also occurred on the Tchefuncta River near Franklinton, LA. The previous maximum stage (since 1949) was exceeded by 3.75 ft, and the April 6 discharge of 26 ,900 cu ft/sec is more than three times the previous maximum. This discharge also exceeded the 100-yr event. Combined flood damages for both States totaled in the hundred of millions of dollars. (Lantz-PTT)

  1. Seawater osmium isotope evidence for a middle Miocene flood basalt event in ferromanganese crust records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klemm, V.; Frank, M.; Levasseur, S.; Halliday, A.N.; Hein, J.R.

    2008-01-01

    Three ferromanganese crusts from the northeast, northwest and central Atlantic were re-dated using osmium (Os) isotope stratigraphy and yield ages from middle Miocene to the present. The three Os isotope records do not show evidence for growth hiatuses. The reconstructed Os isotope-based growth rates for the sections older than 10??Ma are higher than those determined previously by the combined beryllium isotope (10Be/9Be) and cobalt (Co) constant-flux methods, which results in a decrease in the maximum age of each crust. This re-dating does not lead to significant changes to the interpretation of previously determined radiogenic isotope neodymium, lead (Nd, Pb) time series because the variability of these isotopes was very small in the records of the three crusts prior to 10??Ma. The Os isotope record of the central Atlantic crust shows a pronounced minimum during the middle Miocene between 15 and 12??Ma, similar to a minimum previously observed in two ferromanganese crusts from the central Pacific. For the other two Atlantic crusts, the Os isotope records and their calibration to the global seawater curve for the middle Miocene are either more uncertain or too short and thus do not allow for a reliable identification of an isotopic minimum. Similar to pronounced minima reported previously for the Cretaceous/Tertiary and Eocene/Oligocene boundaries, possible interpretations for the newly identified middle Miocene Os isotope minimum include changes in weathering intensity and/or a meteorite impact coinciding with the formation of the No??rdlinger Ries Crater. It is suggested that the eruption and weathering of the Columbia River flood basalts provided a significant amount of the unradiogenic Os required to produce the middle Miocene minimum. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  2. Sparsity-weighted outlier FLOODing (OFLOOD) method: Efficient rare event sampling method using sparsity of distribution.

    PubMed

    Harada, Ryuhei; Nakamura, Tomotake; Shigeta, Yasuteru

    2016-03-30

    As an extension of the Outlier FLOODing (OFLOOD) method [Harada et al., J. Comput. Chem. 2015, 36, 763], the sparsity of the outliers defined by a hierarchical clustering algorithm, FlexDice, was considered to achieve an efficient conformational search as sparsity-weighted "OFLOOD." In OFLOOD, FlexDice detects areas of sparse distribution as outliers. The outliers are regarded as candidates that have high potential to promote conformational transitions and are employed as initial structures for conformational resampling by restarting molecular dynamics simulations. When detecting outliers, FlexDice defines a rank in the hierarchy for each outlier, which relates to sparsity in the distribution. In this study, we define a lower rank (first ranked), a medium rank (second ranked), and the highest rank (third ranked) outliers, respectively. For instance, the first-ranked outliers are located in a given conformational space away from the clusters (highly sparse distribution), whereas those with the third-ranked outliers are nearby the clusters (a moderately sparse distribution). To achieve the conformational search efficiently, resampling from the outliers with a given rank is performed. As demonstrations, this method was applied to several model systems: Alanine dipeptide, Met-enkephalin, Trp-cage, T4 lysozyme, and glutamine binding protein. In each demonstration, the present method successfully reproduced transitions among metastable states. In particular, the first-ranked OFLOOD highly accelerated the exploration of conformational space by expanding the edges. In contrast, the third-ranked OFLOOD reproduced local transitions among neighboring metastable states intensively. For quantitatively evaluations of sampled snapshots, free energy calculations were performed with a combination of umbrella samplings, providing rigorous landscapes of the biomolecules.

  3. Indian Ocean Climate event brings floods to East Africa's lakes and the Sudd Marsh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birkett, Charon; Murtugudde, Ragu; Allan, Tony

    During an El Niño, the expected rainfall increase over most of the Lake Victoria catchment area is ˜15-25%. However, due to anomalous warming of the western equatorial Indian Ocean during 1997, strong convection developed over parts of the Horn and eastern Africa. This resulted in a much larger 20-160% precipitation excess during the “short rainy” season. Satellite radar altimetry data reveals that not only did Lake Victoria rise by ˜1.7 m, but that the rainfall event similarly affected lakes Tanganyika, Malawi and Turkana. In addition, the seasonal level minima of the Sudd marshes and Lakes T'ana and Nasser continue to increase. Such a rainfall event will have severe, long-term consequences for the natural surface flows and storages along the White Nile. Based on the hydrological impacts of the historic 1961 East Africa event, we can expect the current high levels of Lake Victoria to be maintained for the remainder of this decade. In addition, we anticipate a major expansion of the permanent swamp regions of the Sudd marshes over the forthcoming seasons. Blue Nile flows, further enhanced by the above-average 1998 rainfall season, can also be expected to remain high, at least until early 1999.

  4. Floods and Flash Flooding

    MedlinePlus

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  5. SurgeWatch: a user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan; Nicholls, Robert J.; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Gallop, Shari; Brown, Jennifer; Horsburgh, Kevin; Bradshaw, Elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called 'SurgeWatch', which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens. We also focus on some significant events in the database, such as the North Sea storm surge of 31 January-1 February 1953 (Northwest Europe's most severe coastal floods in living memory) and the 5-6 December 2013 "Xaver" Storm and floods.

  6. Landslides, floods and sinkholes in a karst environment: the 1-6 September 2014 Gargano event, southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinotti, Maria Elena; Pisano, Luca; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Melillo, Massimo; Amoruso, Giuseppe; Loiacono, Pierluigi; Vennari, Carmela; Vessia, Giovanna; Trabace, Maria; Parise, Mario; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-03-01

    In karst environments, heavy rainfall is known to cause multiple geohydrological hazards, including inundations, flash floods, landslides and sinkholes. We studied a period of intense rainfall from 1 to 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory, a karst area in Puglia, southern Italy. In the period, a sequence of torrential rainfall events caused severe damage and claimed two fatalities. The amount and accuracy of the geographical and temporal information varied for the different hazards. The temporal information was most accurate for the inundation caused by a major river, less accurate for flash floods caused by minor torrents and even less accurate for landslides. For sinkholes, only generic information on the period of occurrence of the failures was available. Our analysis revealed that in the promontory, rainfall-driven hazards occurred in response to extreme meteorological conditions and that the karst landscape responded to the torrential rainfall with a threshold behaviour. We exploited the rainfall and the landslide information to design the new ensemble-non-exceedance probability (E-NEP) algorithm for the quantitative evaluation of the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and of related geohydrological hazards. The ensemble of the metrics produced by the E-NEP algorithm provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting, including rainfall duration, cumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. We expect that the E-NEP algorithm will be useful for landslide early warning in karst areas and in other similar environments. We acknowledge that further tests are needed to evaluate the algorithm in different meteorological, geological and physiographical settings.

  7. Flood-event based metal distribution patterns in water as approach for source apportionment of pollution on catchment scale: Examples from the River Elbe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baborowski, Martina; Einax, Jürgen W.

    2016-04-01

    With the implementation of European Water Frame Work Directive (EU-WFD), the pollution sources in the River Elbe were assessed by the River Basin Community Elbe (RBC Elbe). Contaminated old sediments played the most significant role for inorganic and organic pollution. In terms of further improvement of the water quality in the river system, a prioritization of the known pollution sources is necessary, with respect to the expected effect in the case of their remediation. This requires information on mobility of contaminated sediments. To create a tool that allows the assessment of pollution trends in the catchment area, event based flood investigations were carried out at a sampling site in the Middle Elbe. The investigations were based on a comparable, discharge related sampling strategy. Four campaigns were performed between 1995 and 2006. The majority of the investigated 16 elements (>80%) studied more intensively in 2006 reached its maximum concentration during the first five days of the event. Only the concentrations of B, Cl-, and U declined with increasing discharge during the flood. The aim of the study was to verify that each flood event is characterized by an internal structure of the water quality. This structure is formed by the appearance of maximum values of water quality parameters at different times during the event. It could be detected by descriptive and multivariate statistical methods. As a result, internal structure of the water quality during the flood was influenced primarily by the source of the metals in the catchment area and its distance from the sampling point. The transport of metals in dissolved, colloidal or particulate form and changes of their ratios during the flood were however, not decisive for the formation of the structure. Our results show that the comparison of the structures obtained from events in different years is indicative of the pollution trend in the catchment area. Exemplarily the trend of the metal pollution in the

  8. Abiotic variability among different aquatic systems of the central Amazon floodplain during drought and flood events.

    PubMed

    Affonso, A G; Queiroz, H L; Novo, E M L M

    2015-11-01

    This paper examines water properties from lakes, (depression lakes, sensu Junk et al., 2012), channels (scroll lakes with high connectivity, sensu Junk et al., 2012) and paleo-channels (scroll lakes with low connectivity-sensu Junk et al., 2012, locally called ressacas) located in Mamirauá Sustainable Development Reserve, in Central Amazon floodplain, Amazonas, Brazil. We analysed surface temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, transparency, suspended inorganic and organic matter, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, organic and inorganic carbon in 2009 high water phase, 2009 and 2010 low water phases. Multivariate statistical analyses of 24 aquatic systems (6 ressacas, 12 lakes and 6 channels, 142 samples) were applied to the variables in order to: 1) quantify differences among aquatic system types; 2) assess how those differences are affected in the different phases of the hydrological year. First, we analysed the entire set of variables to test for differences among phases of the hydrological year and types of aquatic systems using a PERMANOVA two-way crossed design. The results showed that the all measured limnological variables are distinct regarding both factors: types of aquatic systems and hydrological phases. In general, the magnitude and amplitude of all variables were higher in the low water phase than in the high water phase, except for water transparency in all aquatic system's types. PERMANOVA showed that the differences between aquatic system's types and hydrological phases of all variables were highly significant for both main factors (type and phase) and for the type x phase interaction. Limnological patterns of Amazon floodplain aquatic systems are highly dynamic, dependent on the surrounding environment, flood pulse, main river input and system type. These patterns show how undisturbed systems respond to natural variability in such a diverse environment, and how distinct are those aquatic systems

  9. Thunderstorms and Flooding of August 17, 2007, with a Context Provided by a History of Other Large Storm and Flood Events in the Black Hills Area of South Dakota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Driscoll, Daniel G.; Bunkers, Matthew J.; Carter, Janet M.; Stamm, John F.; Williamson, Joyce E.

    2010-01-01

    The Black Hills area of western South Dakota has a history of damaging flash floods that have resulted primarily from exceptionally strong rain-producing thunderstorms. The best known example is the catastrophic storm system of June 9-10, 1972, which caused severe flooding in several major drainages near Rapid City and resulted in 238 deaths. More recently, severe thunderstorms caused flash flooding near Piedmont and Hermosa on August 17, 2007. Obtaining a thorough understanding of peak-flow characteristics for low-probability floods will require a comprehensive long-term approach involving (1) documentation of scientific information for extreme events such as these; (2) long-term collection of systematic peak-flow records; and (3) regional assessments of a wide variety of peak-flow information. To that end, the U.S. Geological Survey cooperated with the South Dakota Department of Transportation and National Weather Service to produce this report, which provides documentation regarding the August 17, 2007, storm and associated flooding and provides a context through examination of other large storm and flood events in the Black Hills area. The area affected by the August 17, 2007, storms and associated flooding generally was within the area affected by the larger storm of June 9-10, 1972. The maximum observed 2007 precipitation totals of between 10.00 and 10.50 inches occurred within about 2-3 hours in a small area about 5 miles west of Hermosa. The maximum documented precipitation amount in 1972 was 15.0 inches, and precipitation totals of 10.0 inches or more were documented for 34 locations within an area of about 76 square miles. A peak flow of less than 1 cubic foot per second occurred upstream from the 2007 storm extent for streamflow-gaging station 06404000 (Battle Creek near Keystone); whereas, the 1972 peak flow of 26,200 cubic feet per second was large, relative to the drainage area of only 58.6 square miles. Farther downstream along Battle Creek, a 2007

  10. Technique for estimating depth of floods in Tennessee

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamble, C.R.

    1983-01-01

    Estimates of flood depths are needed for design of roadways across flood plains and for other types of construction along streams. Equations for estimating flood depths in Tennessee were derived using data for 150 gaging stations. The equations are based on drainage basin size and can be used to estimate depths of the 10-year and 100-year floods for four hydrologic areas. A method also was developed for estimating depth of floods having recurrence intervals between 10 and 100 years. Standard errors range from 22 to 30 percent for the 10-year depth equations and from 23 to 30 percent for the 100-year depth equations. (USGS)

  11. CoSMoS Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) storm hazard projections

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; O'Neill, Andrea; Herdman, Liv

    2016-01-01

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Phase I data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the Mexican Border to Pt. Conception for a 100-year storm scenario and sea-level rise 0 - 2 m. Changes from previous data releases may be reflected in some areas. Data are complete for the information presented but are considered preliminary; changes may be reflected in the full data release (Phase II) in summer 2016.

  12. Impact of ASAR soil moisture data on the MM5 precipitation forecast for the Tanaro flood event of April 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panegrossi, G.; Ferretti, R.; Pulvirenti, L.; Pierdicca, N.

    2011-12-01

    The representation of land-atmosphere interactions in weather forecast models has a strong impact on the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and, in turn, on the forecast. Soil moisture is one of the key variables in land surface modelling, and an inadequate initial soil moisture field can introduce major biases in the surface heat and moisture fluxes and have a long-lasting effect on the model behaviour. Detecting the variability of soil characteristics at small scales is particularly important in mesoscale models because of the continued increase of their spatial resolution. In this paper, the high resolution soil moisture field derived from ENVISAT/ASAR observations is used to derive the soil moisture initial condition for the MM5 simulation of the Tanaro flood event of April 2009. The ASAR-derived soil moisture field shows significantly drier conditions compared to the ECMWF analysis. The impact of soil moisture on the forecast has been evaluated in terms of predicted precipitation and rain gauge data available for this event have been used as ground truth. The use of the drier, highly resolved soil moisture content (SMC) shows a significant impact on the precipitation forecast, particularly evident during the early phase of the event. The timing of the onset of the precipitation, as well as the intensity of rainfall and the location of rain/no rain areas, are better predicted. The overall accuracy of the forecast using ASAR SMC data is significantly increased during the first 30 h of simulation. The impact of initial SMC on the precipitation has been related to the change in the water vapour field in the PBL prior to the onset of the precipitation, due to surface evaporation. This study represents a first attempt to establish whether high resolution SAR-based SMC data might be useful for operational use, in anticipation of the launch of the Sentinel-1 satellite.

  13. Bioavailability of Mercury to Riverine Food Webs as a Function of Flood-Event Inundation of Channel Boundary Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singer, M. B.; Pellachini, C.; Blum, J. D.; Marvin-DiPasquale, M. C.; Donovan, P. M.

    2013-12-01

    Bioavailability of sediment-adsorbed contaminants to food webs in river corridors is typically controlled by biological, chemical, and physical factors, but understanding of their respective influences is limited due to a dearth of landscape-scale investigations of these biogeochemical links. Studies that account for the dynamics and interactions of hydrology and sediment transport in affecting the reactivity of sediment-adsorbed heavy metals such as mercury (Hg) are particularly lacking. Sequences of flood events generate complex inundation histories with banks, terraces, and floodplains that have the potential to alter local redox conditions and thereby affect the oxidation of elemental Hg0 to inorganic Hg(II), and the microbial conversion of Hg(II) to methylmercury (MeHg), potentially increasing the risk of Hg uptake into aquatic food webs. However, the probability distributions of saturation/inundation frequency and duration are typically unknown for channel boundaries along sediment transport pathways, and landscape-scale characterizations of Hg reactivity are rare along contaminated rivers. This research provides the first links between the dynamics of physical processes and biochemical processing and uptake into food webs in fluvial systems beset by large-scale mining contamination. Here we present new research on Hg-contaminated legacy terraces and banks along the Yuba River anthropogenic fan, produced by 19th C. hydraulic gold mining in Northern California. To assess the changes in Hg(II) availability for methylation and MeHg bioavailability into the food web, we combine numerical modeling of streamflow with geochemical assays of total Hg and Hg reactivity to identify hot spots of toxicity within the river corridor as a function of cycles of wetting/drying. We employ a 3D hydraulic model to route historical streamflow hydrographs from major flood events through the Yuba and Feather Rivers into the Central Valley to assess the frequency and duration of

  14. The effect of flood events on the partitioning of labile and refractory carbon in the Missouri-Mississippi River system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roe, K. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Kolker, A.; Allison, M. A.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Duncan, D. D.; Nyman, J. A.; Butcher, K. A.; Adamic, J. F.

    2009-12-01

    The Missouri-Mississippi River system (MMRS) transports over 40% (4.0 x 109 kg) of the United States's annual input of total organic carbon (OC) from land to the marine environment, yet it is challenging to assess the MMRS’s exact role in the global carbon cycle because of the system’s complexity and temporal variability (i.e. high discharge events and low flow regimes). Determining the relative proportion of labile OC to refractory OC entrained in the MMRS during high and mean flow conditions would lend to the understanding of the MMRS’s role in the flux of carbon between the biospheric and atmospheric reservoirs, which is central to determining the role of anthropogenic CO2 in the global carbon cycle and in climate change. In this study, we investigate the relative proportion of labile OC to refractory OC in the lower MMRS during high and near-mean flow conditions in the springs of 2008 and 2009, respectively. The 2008 spring flood discharged 105 km3 of water, the maximum amount of water ever allowed out of the main channel, at a maximum rate of 4.3 x 104 m3s-1. Events of this scale have occurred only nine times in the past 80 years. Additionally, during the spring 2008 flood, bedload sand and large particulate OC transport rates were observed to increase exponentially. The following spring, high discharge rates returned to near-mean values with a peak discharge of 3.6 x 103 m3s-1. Using radiocarbon age and the thermal stability of organic matter (OM) as a proxy for lability, we evaluate the spectra of ages of particulate OM transported in the lower MMRS during these two flow regimes using a programmed-temperature pyrolysis/combustion system (PTP/CS) coupled with 14C determination. The PTP/CS utilizes the differences in thermal stability of acid insoluble particulate organic matter (AIPOM) to separate different components from the bulk. Employing PTP/CS on bulk AIPOM can complement experiments measuring small proportions of total OM such as compound

  15. Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

    2014-05-01

    The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

  16. Developments in large-scale coastal flood hazard mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Dottori, Francesco; Giardino, Alessio; Bouziotas, Dimitrios; Bianchi, Alessandra; Salamon, Peter; Feyen, Luc

    2016-08-01

    Coastal flooding related to marine extreme events has severe socioeconomic impacts, and even though the latter are projected to increase under the changing climate, there is a clear deficit of information and predictive capacity related to coastal flood mapping. The present contribution reports on efforts towards a new methodology for mapping coastal flood hazard at European scale, combining (i) the contribution of waves to the total water level; (ii) improved inundation modeling; and (iii) an open, physics-based framework which can be constantly upgraded, whenever new and more accurate data become available. Four inundation approaches of gradually increasing complexity and computational costs were evaluated in terms of their applicability to large-scale coastal flooding mapping: static inundation (SM); a semi-dynamic method, considering the water volume discharge over the dykes (VD); the flood intensity index approach (Iw); and the model LISFLOOD-FP (LFP). A validation test performed against observed flood extents during the Xynthia storm event showed that SM and VD can lead to an overestimation of flood extents by 232 and 209 %, while Iw and LFP showed satisfactory predictive skill. Application at pan-European scale for the present-day 100-year event confirmed that static approaches can overestimate flood extents by 56 % compared to LFP; however, Iw can deliver results of reasonable accuracy in cases when reduced computational costs are a priority. Moreover, omitting the wave contribution in the extreme total water level (TWL) can result in a ˜ 60 % underestimation of the flooded area. The present findings have implications for impact assessment studies, since combination of the estimated inundation maps with population exposure maps revealed differences in the estimated number of people affected within the 20-70 % range.

  17. A GIS-Based Model for the analysis of an urban flash flood and its hydro-geomorphic response. The Valencia event of 1957

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portugués-Mollá, I.; Bonache-Felici, X.; Mateu-Bellés, J. F.; Marco-Segura, J. B.

    2016-10-01

    Flash floods are recurrent events around the Mediterranean region. Extreme episodes activate hydro-geomorphic high-intensity processes with low frequency. In urban environments, the complexity becomes higher due to the existence of very quick-response runoff. However, immediate recovery works remove the urban marks. After a short time both the significance and magnitude of the hydro-geomorphic event become completely unrecognizable. Nevertheless, these episodes generate extensive documentation which is testimony of the processes in almost real time. It is necessary to exploit this source typology in order to draw flood sketches when events far in time may lack a sufficiently rich database. This is particularly the case for the Valencia flash flood (October 1957), located in the lower Turia River basin (Eastern Spain). It left numerous pieces of hydro-geomorphic evidence, but its tracks were covered a short while after the flood. In any case, it remains part of a non-systematic legacy that has not yet been exploited, consisting of immediate aerial and oblique high resolution photography, pictures at street level, water marks and administrative records. Paradoxically, despite being considered a milestone in metropolitan territorial planning (the river was definitely diverted), an accurate reconstruction of the hydraulic behaviour was required from an integrated point of view. To this aim, the development of a GIS-Based Model enabled the utilisation of the above-mentioned materials. This non-conventional information was treated jointly from a new perspective. It provided database support through a vast amount of organised, structured and georeferenced information about the 1957 event. In a second stage, the GBM made it possible to characterise the Turia urban reach and interpret both the hydro-geomorphic (trenches along barrier beaches, erosion, deposition, etc.) and hydraulic (urban streams along the streets, flow directions, flood extent, levees breaks, overflows

  18. Interannual kinetics (2010-2013) of large wood in a river corridor exposed to a 50-year flood event and fluvial ice dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boivin, Maxime; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Piégay, Hervé

    2017-02-01

    Semi-alluvial rivers of the Gaspé Peninsula, Québec, are prone to produce and transport vast quantities of large wood (LW). The high rate of lateral erosion owing to high energy flows and noncohesive banks is the main process leading to the recruitment of large wood, which in turn initiates complex patterns of wood accumulation and reentrainment within the active channel. The delta of the Saint-Jean River (SJR) has accumulated large annual wood fluxes since 1960 that culminated in a wood raft of > 3-km in length in 2014. To document the kinetics of large wood on the main channel of SJR, four annual surveys were carried out from 2010 to 2013 to locate and describe > 1000 large wood jams (LWJ) and 2000 large wood individuals (LWI) along a 60-km river section. Airborne and ground photo/video images were used to estimate the wood volume introduced by lateral erosion and to identify local geomorphic conditions that control wood mobility and deposits. Video camera analysis allowed the examination of transport rates from three hydrometeorological events for specific river sections. Results indicate that the volume of LW recruited between 2010 and 2013 represents 57% of the total LW production over the 2004-2013 period. Volumes of wood deposited along the 60-km section were four times higher in 2013 than in 2010. Increases in wood amount occurred mainly in upper alluvial sections of the river, whereas decreases were observed in the semi-alluvial middle sections. Observations suggest that the 50-year flood event of 2010 produced large amounts of LW that were only partly exported out of the basin so that a significant amount was still available for subsequent floods. Large wood storage continued after this flood until a similar flood or an ice-breakup event could remobilise these LW accumulations into the river corridor. Ice-jam floods transport large amounts of wood during events with fairly low flow but do not contribute significantly to recruitment rates (ca. 10 to 30

  19. Importance of record length with respect to estimating the 1-percent chance flood

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Feaster, Toby D.

    2010-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gages have been established in every State in the Nation, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. From these st reamflow records, estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are often developed and used to design transportation and water- conveyance structures to protect lives and property, and to determine flood-insurance rates. Probably the most recognizable flood statistic computed from USGS stream gaging records is the 1- percent (%) chance flood; better known has the 100-year flood. By definition, this is a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The 1% chance flood is a statistical estimate that can be significantly influenced by length of record and extreme flood events captured in that record. Consequently, it is typically recommended that flood statistics be updated on some regular interval such as every 10 years. This paper examines the influence of record length on the 1% chance flood for the Broad River in Georgia and the substantial difference that can occur in the estimate based on record length and the hydrologic conditions under which that record was collected. 

  20. The flood event of 10-12 November 2013 on the Tiber River basin (central Italy): real-time flood forecasting with uncertainty supporting risk management and decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Barbetta, Silvia; Pandolfo, Claudia; Stelluti, Marco; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2014-05-01

    The Italian national hydro-meteorological early warning system is composed by 21 regional offices (Functional Centres, CF). Umbria Region (central Italy) CF provides early warning for floods and landslides, real-time monitoring and decision support systems (DSS) for the Civil Defence Authorities when significant events occur. The alert system is based on hydrometric and rainfall thresholds with detailed procedures for the management of critical events in which different roles of authorities and institutions involved are defined. The real-time flood forecasting system is based also on different hydrological and hydraulic forecasting models. Among these, the MISDc rainfall-runoff model ("Modello Idrologico SemiDistribuito in continuo"; Brocca et al., 2011) and the flood routing model named STAFOM-RCM (STAge Forecasting Model-Rating Curve Model; Barbetta et al., 2014) are continuously operative in real-time providing discharge and stage forecasts, respectively, with lead-times up to 24 hours (when quantitative precipitation forecasts are used) in several gauged river sections in the Upper-Middle Tiber River basin. Models results are published in real-time in the open source CF web platform: www.cfumbria.it. MISDc provides discharge and soil moisture forecasts for different sub-basins while STAFOM-RCM provides stage forecasts at hydrometric sections. Moreover, through STAFOM-RCM the uncertainty of the forecast stage hydrograph is provided in terms of 95% Confidence Interval (CI) assessed by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral. In the period 10th-12th November 2013, a severe flood event occurred in Umbria mainly affecting the north-eastern area and causing significant economic damages, but fortunately no casualties. The territory was interested by intense and persistent rainfall; the hydro-meteorological monitoring network recorded locally rainfall depth over 400 mm in 72 hours. In the most affected area, the recorded rainfall depths

  1. Gravity flows associated with flood events and carbon burial: Taiwan as instructional source area.

    PubMed

    Liu, James T; Kao, Shuh-Ji; Huh, Chih-An; Hung, Chin-Chang

    2013-01-01

    Taiwan's unique setting allows it to release disproportionately large quantities of fluvial sediment into diverse dispersal systems around the island. Earthquakes, lithology, topography, cyclone-induced rainfall, and human disturbance play major roles in the catchment dynamics. Deep landslides dominate the sediment-removal process on land, giving fluvial sediment distinct geochemical signals. Extreme conditions in river runoff, sediment load, nearshore waves and currents, and the formation of gravity flows during typhoon events can be observed within short distances. Segregation of fresh biomass and clastic sediment occurs during the marine transport process, yet turbidity currents in the Gaoping Submarine Canyon carry woody debris. Strong currents in the slope and back-arc basin of the Okinawa Trough disperse fine-grained sediments rapidly and widely. Temporal deposition and remobilization may occur when the shallow Taiwan Strait acts as a receptacle. Taiwan can therefore serve as a demonstration of the episodic aspect of the source-to-sink pathway to both the coastal and deep-ocean environments.

  2. Radionuclide activities and metal concentrations in sediments of the Sebou Estuary, NW Morocco, following a flooding event.

    PubMed

    Laissaoui, A; Mas, J L; Hurtado, S; Ziad, N; Villa, M; Benmansour, M

    2013-06-01

    This study presents metal concentrations (Fe, Mg, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, Pb, As, Sr and V) and radionuclide activities ((40)K, (137)Cs, (210)Pb, (226)Ra, (228)Ac, (234)Th and (212)Pb) in surface deposits and a sediment core from the Sebou Estuary, Northwest Morocco. Samples were collected in April 2009, about 2 months after a flooding event, and analysed using a well-type coaxial gamma-ray detector and inductively coupled plasma-quadrupole mass spectrometry. Activities of radionuclides and concentrations of almost all elements in surface samples displayed only moderate spatial variation, suggesting homogenous deposition of eroded local soil in response to intense precipitation. Excess (210)Pb displayed relatively constant activity throughout the sediment core, preventing dating and precluding determination of the historical accumulation rates of pollutants at the core site. Some elements showed non-systematic trends with depth and displayed local maxima and minima. Other elements presented relatively systematic concentration trends or relatively constant levels with discrete maxima and/or minima. Except for Mn, Sr and Cr, all metal concentrations in sediment were below levels typical of polluted systems, suggesting little human impact or losses of metals from sediment particles.

  3. Effects of riparian vegetation on topographic change during a large flood event, Rio Puerco, New Mexico, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perignon, M. C.; Tucker, G.E.; Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.

    2013-01-01

    The spatial distribution of riparian vegetation can strongly influence the geomorphic evolution of dryland rivers during large floods. We present the results of an airborne lidar differencing study that quantifies the topographic change that occurred along a 12 km reach of the Lower Rio Puerco, New Mexico, during an extreme event in 2006. Extensive erosion of the channel banks took place immediately upstream of the study area, where tamarisk and sandbar willow had been removed. Within the densely vegetated study reach, we measure a net volumetric change of 578,050 ± ∼ 490,000 m3, with 88.3% of the total aggradation occurring along the floodplain and channel and 76.7% of the erosion focusing on the vertical valley walls. The sediment derived from the devegetated reach deposited within the first 3.6 km of the study area, with depth decaying exponentially with distance downstream. Elsewhere, floodplain sediments were primarily sourced from the erosion of valley walls. Superimposed on this pattern are the effects of vegetation and valley morphology on sediment transport. Sediment thickness is seen to be uniform among sandbar willows and highly variable within tamarisk groves. These reach-scale patterns of sedimentation observed in the lidar differencing likely reflect complex interactions of vegetation, flow, and sediment at the scale of patches to individual plants.

  4. Effects of riparian vegetation on topographic change during a large flood event, Rio Puerco, New Mexico, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perignon, M. C.; Tucker, G. E.; Griffin, E. R.; Friedman, J. M.

    2013-09-01

    The spatial distribution of riparian vegetation can strongly influence the geomorphic evolution of dryland rivers during large floods. We present the results of an airborne lidar differencing study that quantifies the topographic change that occurred along a 12 km reach of the Lower Rio Puerco, New Mexico, during an extreme event in 2006. Extensive erosion of the channel banks took place immediately upstream of the study area, where tamarisk and sandbar willow had been removed. Within the densely vegetated study reach, we measure a net volumetric change of 578,050 ± ˜ 490,000 m3, with 88.3% of the total aggradation occurring along the floodplain and channel and 76.7% of the erosion focusing on the vertical valley walls. The sediment derived from the devegetated reach deposited within the first 3.6 km of the study area, with depth decaying exponentially with distance downstream. Elsewhere, floodplain sediments were primarily sourced from the erosion of valley walls. Superimposed on this pattern are the effects of vegetation and valley morphology on sediment transport. Sediment thickness is seen to be uniform among sandbar willows and highly variable within tamarisk groves. These reach-scale patterns of sedimentation observed in the lidar differencing likely reflect complex interactions of vegetation, flow, and sediment at the scale of patches to individual plants.

  5. An expeditious risk analysis of intense rainfall events in low mountain ranges of Central German Uplands under the aspect of a sustainable and decentralised flood retention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertermann, D.; Bialas, C.; Zacherl, A.

    2012-04-01

    Due to increasing settlement pressure, intensifying pressure as a result of the utilisation of flood-threatened surfaces and also in consequence of the climate change with its effects even on local scales an accumulation of flood events is to be expected. Areas that have not been influenced by flood events in the past, like low mountain ranges, can certainly be affected in the near future. Against this background applicable solution and adjustment strategies are required in practice to mitigate such events or to even prevent them. The key aim of the research activities is the development of a standardised and expeditious risk analysis of intense rainfall events in low mountain ranges of Central German Uplands under the aspect of sustainable and decentralised flood retention and protection. Hydrologic characteristics, expressed by the 'run-off-coefficient' and the 'surface roughness', for clearly defined biotope types of German low mountain ranges should be derived with the help of already existing standardised soil/utilisation/vegetation units. According to the current state-of-the-art of flood models land use changes do not have great impact on the slow-flowing, large flood events in widespread watersheds. On the contrary, small, swift-flowing floods in small watersheds can be influenced by land use or management changes. Thus, the focus of the research work is aimed on these small quick flood events. However, also differentiated information for the solution of flood problems in large watersheds can be reached by the summation of statements about small watersheds. The development of a standardised planning method (incl. the GI-System implementation) for the optimization of the drain regulation serves for the reduction of the flood danger. Land use and vegetation is so optimised in adaptation to soil and land management and by taking into account prevailing drain roads that an essential contribution to the regulation of the surface run-off can be performed. The

  6. Investigating the temporal dynamics of suspended sediment during flood events with 7Be and 210Pbxs measurements in a drained lowland catchment

    PubMed Central

    Le Gall, Marion; Evrard, Olivier; Foucher, Anthony; Laceby, J. Patrick; Salvador-Blanes, Sébastien; Manière, Louis; Lefèvre, Irène; Cerdan, Olivier; Ayrault, Sophie

    2017-01-01

    Soil erosion is recognized as one of the main processes of land degradation in agricultural areas. High suspended sediment loads, often generated from eroding agricultural landscapes, are known to degrade downstream environments. Accordingly, there is a need to understand soil erosion dynamics during flood events. Suspended sediment was therefore sampled in the river network and at tile drain outlets during five flood events in a lowland drained catchment in France. Source and sediment fallout radionuclide concentrations (7Be, 210Pbxs) were measured to quantify both the fraction of recently eroded particles transported during flood events and their residence time. Results indicate that the mean fraction of recently eroded sediment, estimated for the entire Louroux catchment, increased from 45 ± 20% to 80 ± 20% between December 2013 and February 2014, and from 65 ± 20% to 80 ± 20% in January 2016. These results demonstrate an initial flush of sediment previously accumulated in the river channel before the increasing supply of sediment recently eroded from the hillslopes during subsequent events. This research highlights the utility of coupling continuous river monitoring and fallout radionuclide measurements to increase our understanding of sediment dynamics and improve the management of soil and water resources in agricultural catchments. PMID:28169335

  7. Investigating the temporal dynamics of suspended sediment during flood events with 7Be and 210Pbxs measurements in a drained lowland catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Gall, Marion; Evrard, Olivier; Foucher, Anthony; Laceby, J. Patrick; Salvador-Blanes, Sébastien; Manière, Louis; Lefèvre, Irène; Cerdan, Olivier; Ayrault, Sophie

    2017-02-01

    Soil erosion is recognized as one of the main processes of land degradation in agricultural areas. High suspended sediment loads, often generated from eroding agricultural landscapes, are known to degrade downstream environments. Accordingly, there is a need to understand soil erosion dynamics during flood events. Suspended sediment was therefore sampled in the river network and at tile drain outlets during five flood events in a lowland drained catchment in France. Source and sediment fallout radionuclide concentrations (7Be, 210Pbxs) were measured to quantify both the fraction of recently eroded particles transported during flood events and their residence time. Results indicate that the mean fraction of recently eroded sediment, estimated for the entire Louroux catchment, increased from 45 ± 20% to 80 ± 20% between December 2013 and February 2014, and from 65 ± 20% to 80 ± 20% in January 2016. These results demonstrate an initial flush of sediment previously accumulated in the river channel before the increasing supply of sediment recently eroded from the hillslopes during subsequent events. This research highlights the utility of coupling continuous river monitoring and fallout radionuclide measurements to increase our understanding of sediment dynamics and improve the management of soil and water resources in agricultural catchments.

  8. Flooding and Flood Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  9. 100 years of mapping the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta plain: combining research and teaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, K. M.; Stouthamer, E.; Hoek, W. Z.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-04-01

    The history of modern soil, geomorphological and shallow geological mapping in the Holocene Rhine-Meuse delta plain goes back about 100 years. The delta plain is of very heterogeneous build up, with clayey and peaty flood basins, dissected by sandy fluvial distributary channel belts with fine textured levees grading into tidal-influenced rivers and estuaries. Several generations of precursor rivers occur as alluvial ridges and buried ribbon sands. They form an intricate network originating from repeated avulsions, back to 8000 years ago. Present rivers have been embanked since ca. 1250 AD and the delta plain (~ 3000 km2) has been reclaimed for agriculture. Soils are young and subject to oxidation and compaction. The first detailed field map of channel belts and floodbasins was made in 1926 by Vink, a geography teacher from Amsterdam. Soil mapping and Holocene geology gained interest after WW-II, with Wageningen soil scientists Edelman, Hoeksema and Pons taking lead. Utrecht University started teaching and research on the subject in 1959, launching an undergraduate mapping field course based on hand augering and field observation. An archive of borehole logs and local maps started to build up. Initially focused on soil mapping, from 1973 the course shifted to a geomorphological-geological focus. Berendsen took over supervision, introduced standard description protocols and legends and increased coring depth. This resulted in 1982 in his influential PhD thesis on the Rhine delta's genesis. New coring and sampling methods came and extensive 14C dating campaigns began. With steadily increasing numbers of students, accumulation of data speeded up, and increasingly larger parts of the delta were mapped. The academic mapping ran in parallel with soil survey and geological survey mapping campaigns. The computer was introduced in the field course and digital data archiving began in 1989. A series of PhD studies on thematic aspects of delta evolution and an increasing number

  10. Flood Response Along a Drainage Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meierdiercks, K. L.; Smith, J. A.; Miller, A. J.; Baeck, M.

    2007-12-01

    Flooding in urban areas is complex. As water overtops stream banks, it comes into contact with structural obstacles on the land surface, such as bridge constrictions, that dominate flow pathways. Furthermore, at small, or local, spatial scales, other hydraulic controls such as pipe surcharge and stormwater management ponds play a significant role in flood response. A major obstacle towards a better understanding of how these controls impact flood response is the scarcity of data available to characterize them. One watershed where both hydraulic and hydrologic data is available is the Dead Run watershed in Metropolitan Baltimore, Maryland. Dead Run is a research watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES), part of the Long Term Ecological Research network established by the National Science Foundation. Dead Run geospatial data is available through the BES and Baltimore County; hydrologic data was collected by the authors during field campaigns in the 2003-2005 field seasons; and hydraulic information including storm drain pipes, stormwater management ponds, and bridge constrictions was digitized by the author. The availability of this data in Dead Run allows us to detail not only the impact of impervious surfaces and hydrologic forcing on flood response, but also structural aspects of the urban drainage network. In this study, we integrate the three types of observations - geospatial, hydrologic, and hydraulic - to characterize drainage network structure along Dead Run's tributaries. We use these characterizations and the Environmental Protection Agency's Stormwater Management Model (EPA SWMM) to estimate the 10- and 100-year floods over the drainage network. Analyses focus on two extreme floods in Dead Run: the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 events. Results highlight the importance of incorporating drainage network structure into the models we use to predict flooding in urban environments.

  11. A Tale of 3 P's--Penmanship, Product, and Process: 100 Years of Elementary Writing Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hawkins, Lisa K.; Razali, Abu Bakar

    2012-01-01

    From penmanship, to product, to process...this article recounts 100 years of instructional practice in the US elementary writing classroom through the voices of past teaching manuals and curriculum guides. This particular tale begins at the turn of the 20th century--a time when the elementary school was firmly established in the country, and…

  12. What Would You Look Like If You Were 100 Years Old?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petersen, Hugh

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project inspired by the 100th day of school in which first-grade students created a self-portrait of themselves at 100 years old and wrote an accompanying essay. States that the students drew wrinkles on the faces, age-appropriate clothing, gray or white hair, and even glasses as a finishing touch. (CMK)

  13. Assessment Gaze, Refraction, and Blur: The Course of Achievement Testing in the Past 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Eva L.; Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Cai, Li

    2016-01-01

    This chapter addresses assessment (testing) with an emphasis on the 100-year period since the American Education Research Association was formed. The authors start with definitions and explanations of contemporary tests. They then look backward into the 19th century to significant work by Horace Mann and Herbert Spencer, who engendered two…

  14. A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915–2014

    PubMed Central

    Haigh, Ivan D.; Wadey, Matthew P.; Gallop, Shari L.; Loehr, Heiko; Nicholls, Robert J.; Horsburgh, Kevin; Brown, Jennifer M.; Bradshaw, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called ‘SurgeWatch’, which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens. PMID:25984352

  15. Past and future flooding in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiele-Eich, Insa; Hopson, Thomas; Simmer, Clemens; Simon, Thorsten

    2016-04-01

    Currently, an average of about 20 % of the land surface in Bangladesh is flooded each year, affecting one of the most densely populated regions in the world. We aim to understand the processes currently determining flooding in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, in particular the role of precipitation and sea-level rise, as well as to assess how climate change might impact flood characteristics in the future. Water level and discharge data were provided by the Bangladesh Water Development Board on a daily basis for a period of 1909-2009. Monthly maps based on daily sea level anomalies from the Data Unification Altimeter Combination System DUACS are available on a 0.25° by 0.25° grid for the time period 1993-2014. Ensemble model output for upper catchment precipitation and annual mean thermosteric sea-level rise is taken from historical and RCP scenario runs conducted with the CCSM4. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. The available observations are then used to set up a generalized linear model to detect how precipitation influences flooding in the GBM basin. This model can then be used to give a prognosis on changes in future flooding. Our analysis suggests that water levels have indeed changed over the course of the past century. While the magnitude and duration of average flood events decreased, the frequency of extreme flood events has increased. Low water levels have also changed, with a significant decrease in the annual minimum water level most noticeable when we compare the time periods 1909-1939 and 1979-2009. For the future, first results confirm the decrease in return periods of strong flood events found in previous studies. The impact of climate change on flooding will also be compared to the impact of man-made structures such as Farakka barrage, built across the Ganges on the border between India and Bangladesh and operating since 1975. This is of particular interest as

  16. The influence of high magnitude/ low frequency flood events on the spawning habitat of Atlantic salmon in the headwaters of a Scottish stream.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moir, H.; Gibbins, C.; Soulsby, C.; Webb, J.

    2002-12-01

    In upland salmonid spawning streams, a large proportion of sediment supply is generated in steep headwater reaches during low frequency, high magnitude flood events. These events are integral in dictating channel morphology in these streams. Previous work on a number of Scottish upland streams has suggested that material introduced to the channel during these events is the dominant source of salmonid spawning-calibre sediment and, being important in dictating channel morphology through-out the system, key in controlling the distribution of fish habitats. In headwater reaches, salmonid spawning habitat tends to be limited by the quantity and distribution of suitable sediments, the hydraulics of such locations tending to transport gravel-sized material downstream. Data collected on the Allt a' Ghlinne Bhig (an upland tributary of the River Tay, Scotland) has shown that headwater accumulations of gravel as a result of episodic sediment input during large flood events can provide important spawning habitat, although such features are intrinsically unstable. Uptake of these habitats may be disproportionately important to juvenile production. The stream morphology and discharge associated with over 400 incidents of Atlantic salmon spawning were recorded over three consecutive seasons (2000, 2001 and 2002). Two high magnitude flood events in September 2001 and July 2002 resulted in major sediment input to the headwaters, heavily modifying the character of the channel and producing many substantial accumulations of gravel. In the season prior to these events (2000), no spawning was observed in these locations. During the subsequent surveys (2001 and 2002), a significant number of spawning incidents were observed in the headwaters, potentially providing stock to uptake habitat in these important headwater areas. Although stream discharge during the spawning period is known to affect access to headwater reaches, flows between the three study periods were not significantly

  17. Drought, floods and water quality: Drivers of a severe hypoxic blackwater event in a major river system (the southern Murray-Darling Basin, Australia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitworth, Kerry L.; Baldwin, Darren S.; Kerr, Janice L.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryHypoxic blackwater events are characterised by high levels of dissolved organic carbon in the water column, the metabolism of which depletes dissolved oxygen, which can cause fish and crustacean mortality. Understanding the drivers of and controls on hypoxic blackwater events is important in order to reduce the potential for detrimental water quality impacts from both managed and natural flows. After a decade-long drought in south-eastern Australia, a series of spring and summer flood events in 2010-2011 resulted in a large-scale hypoxic blackwater event in the southern Murray-Darling Basin that affected over 2000 km of river channels and persisted for 6 months. We examined the biogeochemistry and hydrology underpinning this extreme event and found that multiple drivers contributed to the development and persistence of hypoxic blackwater. Inundation of both forested and agricultural floodplains that had not been flooded for over a decade mobilised large stores of reactive carbon. Altered flow seasonality, due to a combination of climatic effects and river regulation, not only increased the risk of hypoxic blackwater generation but also shifted the proportion of bioavailable carbon that was returned to the river channels. Hypolimnetic weir discharge also contributed to hypoxia at some sites. These findings highlight the need for a whole-of-system perspective for the management of regulated river systems - especially in the face of a changing climate.

  18. A Southern Alps and Northern Pyrenees Holocene record of snowmelt-induced flood events and clastic layers associated with negative NAO phases in Western Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simonneau, Anaëlle; Chapron, Emmanuel; Galop, Didier; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Magny, Michel; Bard, Edouard

    2014-05-01

    The origin of both extreme flood events in Lake Ledro (southern Italian Alps) and coarse sandy layers in two disconnected lakes from the Bassies valley (Lakes Majeur and Sigriou, northern Pyrenees) have been related to the impact of snowmelt processes enhancing erosion of mountainous drainage basins (1, 2) throughout the Holocene. Because of increasing human impact on catchment erosion processes since the mid-Holocene in these western European mountain ranges, this study compares these well-dated lacustrine sequences in order to further document the influence of westerlies and of the North Atlantic Oscillation on clastic supply in contrasted lake basins. The integrative approaches performed on each site allow us to show that organic and minerogenic markers, such as non-pollen microsfossils, Rock-Eval pyrolysis or X-ray microfluorescence, are powerful tools to identify clastic sediment source areas. At Ledro, we therefore demonstrated that over the Late Holocene snowmelt-induced flood events essentially remobilized high altitude pasture areas whereas afterwards the flood events affected former forested areas from lower altitude1. In the Pyrenees, the southern slopes of lakes Majeur and Sigriou are characterized by two narrow canyons whose drainage basins are disconnected, relatively small and limited to the high altitude part of the valley of Bassiès. Our results demonstrated that the mid-late Holocene period was regularly interrupted by coarse sandy layers affecting both lakes Majeur and Sigriou and reflecting the high sensitivity of the two active canyons to intense rainfall or snowmelt periods². While extreme flood deposits in Lake Ledro during the Bronze Age period may result from the combination of both climate and human activities, contemporaneous extreme flood events in Ledro and coarse sandy layers in the Bassiès lakes, dated to AD 1710, AD1530, AD1360, AD940, AD570 and 1850, 1050, 1410, 1850, 2690, 4190, 4800 cal BP, testify of regional hydrological

  19. The influence of the maintenance of terraced areas on slope stability during the November 2014 flood event in Liguria (northwestern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, Daniele; Poggi, Flavio; Baldo, Marco; Cignetti, Martina

    2016-04-01

    Terraced environments are a widespread feature of the coastal settlement of eastern Liguria (northwestern Italy) and they constitute a well-known favorable role in slope stability. In this region, starting from the twentieth century, the progressive abandonment of agriculture determines a progressively increasing lack of maintenance of the terraces, consequently raising the level of slope instability. Moreover, it should be taken into account not only the level of terraces maintenance, but also their interaction with several factors as i) geological and geomorphological conditions, ii) soil properties, iii) hydrological and hydrogeological conditions, and iv) land use, causing an increase in landslides occurrence. The definition of managed terraces effects on slope stability and their response to external stress like a flood event is rather complicated; a possible approach is a statistical analysis of the effects of a flood event over a large terraced area, distinguishing the maintained sectors from the abandoned ones. After the November 2014 flood event, which affected several sectors of the Liguria region, where a high number of shallow landslides were triggered, an airborne LiDAR survey of the damaged area was carried out. In particular, a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM) resampled to a lower density (1 square meter grid spacing) and a photogrammetric coverage of the area was performed, in order to create a landslide map of the flood event. The surveyed area covered more than 380 square kilometers, and over 1600 shallow landslides triggered by the flood event were identified and inventoried. The high resolution DTM allowed the identification of terraced areas also in wooded sectors and a sharp mapping of the extension of terraced slopes in this portion of Liguria region. By considering: i) the terraced areas recognized through DTM analysis, ii) the mapped landslides, and iii) the land use classification, a correlation between the presence of terraces

  20. Fine-grained sediment gravity flow deposits induced by flood and lake slope failure events: examples of lacustrine varved sediments in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishihara, Yoshiro; Sasaki, Yasunori; Sasaki, Hana; Onishi, Yuri

    2016-04-01

    Fine-grained sediment gravity flow deposits induced by flood and lake slope failure events are frequently intercalated in lacustrine successions. When sediment gravity flow deposits are present in varved sediments, it is suggested that they provide valuable information about sediment gravity flows, because they can easily trace laterally and can give the magnitude of erosion and recurrence interval of events. In addition, because large sedimentary bodies of stacked sediment gravity flow deposits in varved sediments of a calm lake are not suggested, a relatively simple depositional environment is expected. In the present study, we analysed sedimentary facies of sediment gravity flow deposits in varved lacustrine diatomites in the Middle Pleistocene Hiruzenbara and Miyajima formations in Japan, and concluded a depositional model of the lacustrine sediment gravity flow deposits. Varved diatomites: The Hiruzenbara Fm., a dammed lake fill as foots of Hiruzen Volcanos, is deposited during an interglacial period during MIS12 to 15. Varves of ca. 8000 yr were measured in a 20 m intercalating flood and lake slope failure-induced sediment gravity flow deposits. The Miyajima Fm., distributed in a paleo-caldera lake in NE Japan, includes many sediment gravity flow deposits possibly originated from fandeltas around the lake. These formations have differences in their depositional setting; the Hiruzebara Fm. was deposited in a large lake basin, whereas the Miyajima Fm. was deposited in a relatively small basin. Because of the depositional setting, intercalation of volcaniclastics is dominant in the Miyajima Fm. Lacustrine sediment gravity flow deposits: Sediment gravity flow deposits in both formations can be classified into flood- and lake slope failure-induced types based on the sedimentary facies. Composites of the both types are also found. Flood-induced types comprise fine-grained silts dominated by carbonaceous fragments, whereas lake slope failure-induced types are

  1. Quantifying geomorphic and riparian land cover changes either side of a large flood event using airborne remote sensing: River Tay, Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryant, Robert G.; Gilvear, David J.

    1999-09-01

    The potential of high resolution multi-spectral airborne remote sensing to detect and quantify changes in channel morphology and riparian land cover are illustrated. The River Tay is a partially embanked wandering gravel bed river, and Airborne Thematic Mapper data, which collect reflectance in the visible, near, mid and thermal infrared, were acquired in 1992 and 1994 either side of a 1:65 recurrence-interval flood event. Imagery was radiometrically, atmospherically and geometrically corrected in order to minimise atmospheric and geometric changes between the 1992 and 1994 scenes. A maximum likelihood classifier was then used on each image and change was quantitatively mapped using a classification comparison approach. Bathymetric mapping was undertaken by applying a Lyzenga algorithm to ATM bands 5, 6 and 8 to account for an exponential decrease in electromagnetic radiation penetration through the water column with depth. Despite the magnitude of the flood event, no major changes in channel position or form occurred but the change detection algorithms revealed subtle changes not observed in the field. Bar head accretion, bar tail formation and extension, bar dissection, localised bank erosion and the overriding of low level vegetated islands by gravel lobes were the main forms of change. On the floodplain, flood embankment failures resulted in fans of sands and gravels on agricultural land. More generally, the study reveals the potential for using airborne remote sensing to detect change in fluvial systems and as a mutually complementary tool to field survey.

  2. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  3. Ice core evidence for significant 100-year regional warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, E. R.; Dennis, P. F.; Bracegirdle, T. J.; Franzke, C.

    2009-10-01

    We present a new 150-year, high-resolution, stable isotope record (δ 18O) from the Gomez ice core, drilled on the data sparse south western Antarctic Peninsula, revealing a ˜2.7°C rise in surface temperatures since the 1950s. The record is highly correlated with satellite-derived temperature reconstructions and instrumental records from Faraday station on the north west coast, thus making it a robust proxy for local and regional temperatures since the 1850s. We conclude that the exceptional 50-year warming, previously only observed in the northern Peninsula, is not just a local phenomena but part of a statistically significant 100-year regional warming trend that began around 1900. A suite of coupled climate models are employed to demonstrate that the 50 and 100 year temperature trends are outside of the expected range of variability from pre-industrial control runs, indicating that the warming is likely the result of external climate forcing.

  4. The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park, Alaska

    PubMed Central

    Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N.; Whitehead, Paul G.

    2013-01-01

    In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID

  5. Creating Long Term Income Streams for the 100 Year Starship Study Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sylvester, A. J.

    Development and execution of long term research projects are very dependent on a consistent application of funding to maximize the potential for success. The business structure for the 100 Year Starship Study project should allow for multiple income streams to cover the expenses of the research objectives. The following examples illustrate the range of potential avenues: 1) affiliation with a charitable foundation for creating a donation program to fund a long term endowment for research, 2) application for grants to fund initial research projects and establish the core expertise of the research entity, 3) development of intellectual property which can then be licensed for additional revenue, 4) creation of spinout companies with equity positions retained by the lab for funding the endowment, and 5) funded research which is dual use for the technology goals of the interstellar flight research objectives. With the establishment of a diversified stream of funding options, then the endowment can be funded at a level to permit dedicated research on the interstellar flight topics. This paper will focus on the strategy of creating spinout companies to create income streams which would fund the endowment of the 100 Year Starship Study effort. This technique is widely used by universities seeking to commercially develop and market technologies developed by university researchers. An approach will be outlined for applying this technique to potentially marketable technologies generated as a part of the 100 Year Starship Study effort.

  6. European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the `Little Ice Age'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Demarée, Gaston R.; Deutsch, Mathias; Garnier, Emmanuel; Kiss, Andrea; Luterbacher, Jürg; MacDonald, Neil; Rohr, Christian; Dobrovolný, Petr; Kolář, Petr; Chromá, Kateřina

    2010-03-01

    The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783-early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February-March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.

  7. Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.

    2009-01-01

    Up to 8.5 inches of rain fell from April 15 through 18, 2007, in southern Maine. The rain - in combination with up to an inch of water from snowmelt - resulted in extensive flooding. York County, Maine, was declared a presidential disaster area following the event. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), determined peak streamflows and recurrence intervals at 24 locations and peak water-surface elevations at 63 sites following the April 2007 flood. Peak streamflows were determined with data from continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations where available and through hydraulic models where station data were not available. The flood resulted in peak streamflows with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years throughout most of York County, and recurrence intervals up to 50 years in Cumberland County. Peak flows for selected recurrence intervals varied from less than 10 percent to greater than 100 percent different than those in the current FEMA flood-insurance studies due to additional data or newer regression equations. Water-surface elevations observed during the April 2007 flood were bracketed by elevation profiles in FEMA flood-insurance studies with the same recurrence intervals as the recurrence intervals bracketing the observed peak streamflows at seven sites, with higher elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at six sites, and with lower elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at one site. The April 2007 flood resulted in higher peak flows and water-surface elevations than the flood of May 2006 in coastal locations in York County, and lower peak flows and water-surface elevations than the May 2006 flood further from the coast and in Cumberland County. The Mousam River watershed with over 13 dams and reservoirs was severely impacted by both events. Analyses indicate that the April 2007 peak streamflows in the Mousam River watershed

  8. An attempt to estimate the economic value of the loss of human life due to landslide and flood events in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvati, Paola; Bianchi, Cinzia; Hussin, Haydar; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2013-04-01

    Landslide and flood events in Italy cause wide and severe damage to buildings and infrastructure, and are frequently involved in the loss of human life. The cost estimates of past natural disasters generally refer to the amount of public money used for the restoration of the direct damage, and most commonly do not account for all disaster impacts. Other cost components, including indirect losses, are difficult to quantify and, among these, the cost of human lives. The value of specific human life can be identified with the value of a statistical life (VLS), defined as the value that an individual places on a marginal change in their likelihood of death This is different from the value of an actual life. Based on information of fatal car accidents in Italy, we evaluate the cost that society suffers for the loss of life due to landslide and flood events. Using a catalogue of fatal landslide and flood events, for which information about gender and age of the fatalities is known, we determine the cost that society suffers for the loss of their life. For the purpose, we calculate the economic value in terms of the total income that the working-age population involved in the fatal events would have earned over the course of their life. For the computation, we use the pro-capita income calculated as the ratio between the GDP and the population value in Italy for each year, since 1980. Problems occur for children and retired people that we decided not to include in our estimates.

  9. Recent evolution of surge-related events and assessment of coastal flooding risk on the eastern coasts of the English Channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirazzoli, Paolo Antonio; Costa, Stéphane; Dornbusch, Uwe; Tomasin, Alberto

    2006-12-01

    This paper is based on statistical analysis of hourly tide measurements for some 285 equivalent full years from the stations of Weymouth, Bournemouth, Portsmouth, Newhaven, Dover and Sheerness in the UK, and of Cherbourg, Le Havre, Dieppe, Boulogne, Calais and Dunkirk in France. For each tidal value, surge heights have been determined and correlated with hourly or three-hourly wind and air pressure data from nearby meteorological stations. Major surges in the area are generally produced by storms associated with wind from north-west or south-west that tend to push oceanic water into the Channel. Recent medium-term climate evolution does not seem to increase the flooding risk at French stations, where surge-related winds tend to decrease in frequency and speed (Cherbourg, Dieppe and Boulogne) or show little change (Le Havre). However, the long-term risk of flooding will increase through the loss in land elevation due to a continuation of the local relative sea-level rise, especially if this effect will be enhanced by an acceleration in the global sea-level rise predicted by climatic models. The northern side of the Channel (Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth) is mainly exposed to southerly winds that show variable trends. It is also apparently affected by strong subsidence trends during the last two decades. If lasting, such trends can only increase long-term flooding risk. The flooding risk has not increased near the eastern end of the Channel. The duration of significant cyclonic events tends to decrease near Cherbourg but tends to increase near Weymouth, with no conclusive trends in other stations (Portsmouth, Calais and Dunkirk), where extreme surges may occur also in relatively high-air-pressure situations. In conclusion, medium-term coastal flooding risk seems to increase especially at Weymouth, Bournemouth and Portsmouth, and also, but less so, at Le Havre and Sheerness. In addition, few extreme surges occurred during the last decades at the time of spring

  10. What if the 25 October 2011 event that struck Cinque Terre (Liguria) had happened in Genoa, Italy? Flooding scenarios, hazard mapping and damage estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvestro, Francesco; Rebora, Nicola; Rossi, Lauro; Dolia, Daniele; Gabellani, Simone; Pignone, Flavio; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; De Angeli, Silvia; Masciulli, Cristiano

    2016-08-01

    During the autumn of 2011 two catastrophic, very intense rainfall events affected two different parts of the Liguria Region of Italy causing various flash floods. The first occurred in October and the second at the beginning of November. Both the events were characterized by very high rainfall intensities (> 100 mm h-1) that persisted on a small portion of territory causing local huge rainfall accumulations (> 400 mm 6 h-1). Two main considerations were made in order to set up this work. The first consideration is that various studies demonstrated that the two events had a similar genesis and similar triggering elements. The second very evident and coarse concern is that two main elements are needed to have a flash flood: a very intense and localized rainfall event and a catchment (or a group of catchments) to be affected. Starting from these assumptions we did the exercise of mixing the two flash flood ingredients by putting the rainfall field of the first event on the main catchment struck by the second event, which has its mouth in the biggest city of the Liguria Region: Genoa. A complete framework was set up to quantitatively carry out a "what if" experiment with the aim of evaluating the possible damages associated with this event. A probabilistic rainfall downscaling model was used to generate possible rainfall scenarios maintaining the main characteristics of the observed rainfall fields while a hydrological model transformed these rainfall scenarios in streamflow scenarios. A subset of streamflow scenarios is then used as input to a 2-D hydraulic model to estimate the hazard maps, and finally a proper methodology is applied for damage estimation. This leads to the estimation of the potential economic losses and of the risk level for the people that stay in the affected area. The results are interesting, surprising and in a way worrying: a rare but not impossible event (it occurred about 50 km away from Genoa) would have caused huge damages estimated between

  11. Floods of June 2012 in northeastern Minnesota

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Czuba, Christiana R.; Fallon, James D.; Kessler, Erich W.

    2012-01-01

    During June 19–20, 2012, heavy rainfall, as much as 10 inches locally reported, caused severe flooding across northeastern Minnesota. The floods were exacerbated by wet antecedent conditions from a relatively rainy spring, with May 2012 as one of the wettest Mays on record in Duluth. The June 19–20, 2012, rainfall event set new records in Duluth, including greatest 2-day precipitation with 7.25 inches of rain. The heavy rains fell on three major watersheds: the Mississippi Headwaters; the St. Croix, which drains to the Mississippi River; and Western Lake Superior, which includes the St. Louis River and other tributaries to Lake Superior. Widespread flash and river flooding that resulted from the heavy rainfall caused evacuations of residents, and damages to residences, businesses, and infrastructure. In all, nine counties in northeastern Minnesota were declared Federal disaster areas as a result of the flooding. Peak-of-record streamflows were recorded at 13 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages as a result of the heavy rainfall. Flood-peak gage heights, peak streamflows, and annual exceedance probabilities were tabulated for 35 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. Flood-peak streamflows in June 2012 had annual exceedance probabilities estimated to be less than 0.002 (0.2 percent; recurrence interval greater than 500 years) for five streamgages, and between 0.002 and 0.01 (1 percent; recurrence interval greater than 100 years) for four streamgages. High-water marks were identified and tabulated for the most severely affected communities of Barnum (Moose Horn River), Carlton (Otter Creek), Duluth Heights neighborhood of Duluth (Miller Creek), Fond du Lac neighborhood of Duluth (St. Louis River), Moose Lake (Moose Horn River and Moosehead Lake), and Thomson (Thomson Reservoir outflow near the St. Louis River). Flood-peak inundation maps and water-surface profiles were produced for these six severely affected communities. The inundation maps were constructed in a

  12. August, 2002 - floods events, affected areas revitalisation and prevention for the future in the central Bohemian region, Czech Republic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bina, L.; Vacha, F.; Vodova, J.

    2003-04-01

    Central Bohemian Region is located in a shape of a ring surrounding the capitol of Prague. Its total territorial area is 11.014 sq.km and population of 1 130.000 inhabitants. According to EU nomenclature of regional statistical units, the Central Bohemian Region is classified as an independent NUTS II. Bohemia's biggest rivers, Vltava and Labe form the region's backbone dividing it along a north-south line, besides that there are Sazava and Berounka, the two big headwaters of Vltava, which flow through the region and there also are some cascade man made lakes and 2 important big dams - Orlik and Slapy on the Vltava River in the area of the region. Overflowing of these rivers and their feeders including cracking of high-water dams during the floods in August 2002 caused total or partial destruction or damage of more than 200 towns and villages and total losses to the extend of 450 mil. EUR. The worst impact was on damaged or destroyed human dwellings, social infrastructure (schools, kindergartens, humanitarian facilities) and technical infrastructure (roads, waterworks, power distribution). Also businesses were considerably damaged including transport terminals in the area of river ports. Flowage of Spolana Neratovice chemical works caused critical environmental havoc. Regional crisis staff with regional Governor in the lead worked continuously during the floods and a regional integrated rescue system was subordinated to it. Due to the huge extent of the floods the crisis staff coordinated its work with central bodies of state including the Government and single "power" resorts (army, interior, transport). Immediately after floods a regional - controlled management was set up including an executive body for regional revitalisation which is connected to state coordinating resort - Ministry for Local Development, EU sources and humanitarian aid. In addition to a program of regional revitalisation additional preventive flood control programs are being developed

  13. Spatial-temporal variations of dominant drought/flood modes and the associated atmospheric circulation and ocean events in rainy season over the east of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Shaoni; Huang, Fei

    2012-06-01

    By using Season-reliant Empirical Orthogonal Function (S-EOF) analysis, three dominant modes of the spatial-temporal evolution of the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are revealed for the period of 1960-2004. The first two leading modes occur during the turnabout phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) decaying year, but the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over the east of China are different due to the role of the Indian Ocean (IO). The first leading mode appears closely correlated with the ENSO events. In the decaying year of El Niño, the associated western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone located over the Philippine Sea persists from the previous winter to the next early summer, transports warm and moist air toward the southern Yangtze River in China, and leads to wet conditions over this entire region. Therefore, the precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a `Southern Flood and Northern Drought' pattern over East China. On the other hand, the basin-wide Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) plays a crucial role in prolonging the impact of ENSO on the second mode during the ENSO decaying summer. The Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) warming persists through summer and unleashes its influence, which forces a Matsuno-Gill pattern in the upper troposphere. Over the subtropical western North Pacific, an anomalous anticyclone forms in the lower troposphere. The southerlies on the northwest flank of this anticyclone increase the moisture transport onto central China, leading to abundant rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River valleys. The anomalous anticyclone causes dry conditions over South China and the South China Sea (SCS). The precipitation anomaly in summer exhibits a `Northern Flood and Southern Drought' pattern over East China. Therefore, besides the ENSO event the IOBM is an important factor to influence the drought/flood patterns in the rainy season over

  14. Simulations of Flooding on Pea River and Whitewater Creek in the Vicinity of the Proposed Elba Bypass at Elba, Alabama

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hedgecock, T. Scott

    2003-01-01

    A two-dimensional finite-element surface-water model was used to study the effects of proposed modifications to the State Highway 203 corridor (proposed Elba Bypass/relocated U.S. Highway 84) on water-surface elevations and flow distributions during flooding in the Pea River and Whitewater Creek Basins at Elba, Coffee County, Alabama. Flooding was first simulated for the March 17, 1990, flood, using the 1990 flood-plain conditions to calibrate the model to match measured data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers after the flood. After model calibration, the effects of flooding were simulated for four scenarios: (1) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the existing flood-plain, bridge, highway, and levee conditions; (2) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the existing flood-plain and levee conditions with the State Highway 203 embankment and bridge removed; (3) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the existing flood-plain, bridge, and highway conditions with proposed modifications (elevating) to the levee; and (4) floods having the 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals for the proposed conditions reflecting the Elba Bypass and modified levee. The simulation of floodflow for the Pea River and Whitewater Creek flood of March 17, 1990, in the study reach compared closely to flood profile data obtained after the flood. The flood of March 17, 1990, had an estimated peak discharge of 58,000 cubic feet per second at the gage (just below the confluence) and was estimated to be between a 50-year and 100-year flood event. The estimated peak discharge for Pea River and Whitewater Creek was 40,000 and 42,000 cubic feet per second, respectively. Simulation of floodflows for the 50-year flood (51,400 cubic feet per second) at the gage for existing flood-plain, bridge, highway, and levee conditions indicated that about 31 percent of the peak flow was conveyed by the State

  15. Insights from analyzing and modelling cascading multi-lake outburst flood events in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmer, Adam; Mergili, Martin; Juřicová, Anna; Cochachin, Alejo; Huggel, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Since the end of Little Ice Age, the Cordillera Blanca of Perú has experienced tens of lake outburst floods (LOFs), resulting in the loss of thousands of lives and significant material damages. Most commonly involving glacial lakes, such events are often directly or indirectly related to glacier retreat. Here we analyze an event on 8th February 2012 involving four lakes and affecting two valleys (Santa Cruz and Artizón) in the northern part of the Cordillera Blanca. Using the combination of field data, satellite images, digital elevation model (DEM) and GIS-based modelling approaches, the main objectives are: (i) to better understand complex multi-lake outburst flood and related foregoing and induced geomorphological processes; and (ii) to evaluate and discuss the suitability, potentials and limitations of the r.avaflow model for modelling such complex process chains. Analyzing field geomorphological evidence and remotely-sensed images, we reconstruct the event as follows: a landslide from the recently deglaciated left lateral moraine of Lake Artizón Alto (4 639 m a.s.l.), characterized by steep slopes and a height of more than 200 m produced a displacement wave which overtopped the bedrock dam of the lake. The resulting flood wave breached the dam of the downstream moraine-/landslide-dammed Lake Artizón Bajo (4 477 m a.s.l.), decreasing the lake level by 10 m and releasing 3 x 105 m3 of water. Significant amounts of material were eroded from the steeper parts of the Artizón Valley (mean slope >15°) and deposited further downstream in the flatter part of the Santa Cruz Valley (mean slope <2°; confluence of the two valleys at 3 985 m a.s.l.). The flood affected two debris cone-dammed lakes (Jatuncocha and Ichiccocha) in the Santa Cruz Valley. Some minor damages to the dam of Lake Jatuncocha were documented. Geomprohological evidence of the event was observed more than 20 km downstream from Lake Artizón Alto. The described multi-LOF event was employed as a

  16. Post flash flood field investigations and analysis: the event on 22 November 2011 in Longano catchment, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Cavalli, Marco; Gaume, Eric; Marchi, Lorenzo; Naso, Susanna; Borga, Marco

    2013-04-01

    On 22 November 2011, an exceptional rainstorm hit the North-East part of Sicily (Italy) producing local heavy rainfall, mud-debris flow and flash flooding. The storm was concentrated on the Tyrrhenian Sea coast near the city of Barcellona within the Longano catchment. The estimated flood peak discharge of the Longano river in the city of Barcellona (about 230 m3/s for 26 km2) is close to the highest values reported in Europe for similar watershed areas. Rainfall data from raingauge and meteorological radar were analysed and a detailed study of the hydrological response of the catchment was performed by means of rainfall-runoff modelling and flood frequency analysis. The results of the rainfall-runoff model were compared with peak discharges estimated from field observations (cross-sections survey, water marks, witnesses interviews and video recordings). Flood inundation and propagation in the city were modelled using an hydraulic model based on De Saint Venant equation equations calibrated using the data collected (water depths and flow velocities). A geomorphological survey was also conducted to ascertain the evolution of the phenomenon and related sediment processes analysis.

  17. Observed climate variations during the last 100 years in Lapland, northern Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Susan E.; Press, M. C.; Lee, J. A.

    2000-03-01

    Many general circulation models (GCMs) predict that high latitude environments will experience substantial warming over the next 100 years, which will be particularly pronounced during the winter months. Precipitation is also expected to increase but there is uncertainty as to the amount and spatial variation.The flora and fauna of the arctic and subarctic regions, together with indigenous people, such as the Saami, are particularly vunerable to rising temperatures and changing precipitation. Mean monthly temperature and precipitation data were examined for the last 100 years for northern Finland. These data were further analysed for the first and second half of the 20th century.There was no discernible warming trend between 1876 and 1993, but a significant annual warming (r=0.344, <0.05) occurred in the period 1901-1945, together with a significant summer warming (r=0.381, ρ<0.05). Warming has occurred consistently in May and June over the last 100 years and there appears to be a current (i.e. post 1990) annual trend, mostly due to winter warming. The greatest temperature anomaly increase for the period 1901-1945 was in the winter months (+0.72°C). The degree of temperature variation in the winter is greater than in the summer and has risen from 3.98°C for December in the period 1901-1945 to 4.37°C in the period 1946-1990. This is attributed to the recent high variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Annual precipitation has increased significantly during the period 1880-1993. The period 1946-1990 was wetter than 1901-1945, with greater variability particularly in the summer months, which contribute most to the annual precipitation in Lapland.

  18. 100 years of Epilepsia: landmark papers and their influence in neuropsychology and neuropsychiatry.

    PubMed

    Hermann, Bruce

    2010-07-01

    As part of the 2009 International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) Centenary Celebration, a special symposium was dedicated to Epilepsia (100 Years of Epilepsia: Landmark Papers and Their Influence). The Associate Editors were asked to identify a particularly salient and meaningful paper in their areas of expertise. From the content areas of neuropsychology and neuropsychiatry two very interesting papers were identified using quite different ascertainment techniques. One paper addressed the problem of psychosis in temporal lobe epilepsy, whereas the other represents the first paper to appear in Epilepsia presenting quantitative assessment of cognitive status in epilepsy. These two papers are reviewed in detail and placed in historical context.

  19. Fascia Research Congress evidence from the 100 year perspective of Andrew Taylor Still.

    PubMed

    Findley, Thomas W; Shalwala, Mona

    2013-07-01

    More than 100 years ago A.T. Still MD founded osteopathic medicine, and specifically described fascia as a covering, with common origins of layers of the fascial system despite diverse names for individual parts. Fascia assists gliding and fluid flow and is highly innervated. Fascia is intimately involved with respiration and with nourishment of all cells of the body, including those of disease and cancer. This paper reviews information presented at the first three International Fascia Research Congresses in 2007, 2009 and 2012 from the perspective of Dr Still, that fascia is vital for organism's growth and support, and it is where disease is sown.

  20. 100 years since the discovery of cosmic rays. A brief history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiavassa, Andrea

    2012-11-01

    With the words "Cosmic Rays" we mean particles impinging on the earth atmosphere. The existence of these particles was discovered in 1912, i.e. exactly 100 years ago, by the Austrian physicist Victor Hesss. In this contribution I will describe the steps that lead to such a discovery: from the electroscope measurements, showing their spontaneous discharge, to the correct explanation of this results with the existence of charged particles arriving from outside of the atmosphere. Then I will discuss the first steps of experimental particle physics, obtained with experiments performed detecting cosmic rays, that allowed important discoveries as the detection of antimatter and of new subatominc particles as muons and pions.

  1. Groundwater discharge to wetlands driven by storm and flood events: Quantification using continuous Radon-222 and electrical conductivity measurements and dynamic mass-balance modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilfedder, B. S.; Frei, S.; Hofmann, H.; Cartwright, I.

    2015-09-01

    The dynamic response of groundwater discharge to external influences such as rainfall is an often neglected part of water and solute balances in wetlands. Here we develop a new field platform for long-term continuous 222Rn and electrical conductivity (EC) measurements at Sale Wetland, Australia to study the response of groundwater discharge to storm and flood events. The field measurements, combined with dynamic mass-balance modelling, demonstrate that the groundwater flux can increase from 3 to ∼20 mm d-1 following storms and up to 5 mm d-1 on the receding limb of floods. The groundwater pulses are likely produced by activation of local groundwater flow paths by water ponding on the surrounding flood plains. While 222Rn is a sensitive tracer for quantifying transient groundwater discharge, the mass-balance used to estimate fluxes is sensitive to parameterisation of gas exchange (k) with the atmosphere. Comparison of six equations for calculating k showed that, based on parameterisation of k alone, the groundwater flux estimate could vary by 58%. This work shows that neglecting transient processes will lead to errors in water and solute flux estimates based on infrequent point measurements. This could be particularly important for surface waters connected to contaminated or saline groundwater systems.

  2. Trends in water level and flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and their impact on mortality.

    PubMed

    Thiele-Eich, Insa; Burkart, Katrin; Simmer, Clemens

    2015-01-22

    Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003-2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed population is also well-adapted to drought.

  3. Trends in Water Level and Flooding in Dhaka, Bangladesh and Their Impact on Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Thiele-Eich, Insa; Burkart, Katrin; Simmer, Clemens

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact flooding in many highly populated coastal regions, including Dhaka (Bangladesh), which is currently among the fastest growing cities in the world. In the past, high mortality counts have been associated with extreme flood events. We first analyzed daily water levels of the past 100 years in order to detect potential shifts in extremes. A distributed lag non-linear model was then used to examine the connection between water levels and mortality. Results indicate that for the period of 2003–2007, which entails two major flood events in 2004 and 2007, high water levels do not lead to a significant increase in relative mortality, which indicates a good level of adaptation and capacity to cope with flooding. However, following low water levels, an increase in mortality could be found. As our trend analysis of past water levels shows that minimum water levels have decreased during the past 100 years, action should be taken to ensure that the exposed population is also well-adapted to drought. PMID:25648177

  4. The August 2002 flood in Salzburg / Austria experience gained and lessons learned from the ``Flood of the century''?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiesenegger, H.

    2003-04-01

    On the {12th} of August 2002 a low pressure system moved slowly from northern Italy towards Slovakia. It continuously carried moist air from the Mediterranean towards the northern rim of the Alps with the effect of wide-spread heavy rainfall in Salzburg and other parts of Austria. Daily precipitation amounts of 100 - 160 mm, in some parts even more, as well as rainfall intensities of 5 - 10 mm/h , combined with well saturated soils lead to a rare flood with a return period of 100 years and more. This rare hydrological event not only caused a national catastrophe with damages of several Billion Euro, but also endangered more than 200,000 people, and even killed some. As floods are dangerous, life-threatening, destructive, and certainly amongst the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship as well as economic loss, a great effort, therefore, has to be made to protect people against negative impacts of floods. In order to achieve this objective, various regulations in land use planning (flood maps), constructive measurements (river regulations and technical constructions) as well as flood warning systems, which are not suitable to prevent big floods, but offer in-time-warnings to minimize the loss of human lives, are used in Austria. HYDRIS (Hydrological Information System for flood forecasting in Salzburg), a modular river basin model, developed at Technical University Vienna and operated by the Hydrological Service of Salzburg, was used during the August 2002 flood providing accurate 3 to 4 hour forecasts within 3 % of the real peak discharge of the fast flowing River Salzach. The August {12^th}} flood was in many ways an exceptional, very fast happening event which took many people by surprise. At the gauging station Salzburg / Salzach (catchment area 4425 {km^2}) it took only eighteen hours from mean annual discharge (178 {m3/s}) to the hundred years flood (2300 {m3/s}). The August flood made clear, that there is a strong need for

  5. Mining Subsidence-generated legacy sediments in a Mid-European low-order stream floodplain as an archive for historic human activity and flooding events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchty-Lemke, Michael; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Frings, Roy; Henkel, Sebastian; Schwarzbauer, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Legacy sediments, which were deposited as a consequence of mining subsidence in a floodplain area, can be used as an archive for human activity and past flooding. The morphodynamics of the Wurm River, a low-order stream in the Lower Rhine Embayment at the border between Germany and the Netherlands, is significantly influenced by a long colliery history, which caused alterations in the natural river landscape. In addition, substances which are transported via municipal wastewaters as well as contaminants emitted by specific regional industries were deposited in the floodplain sediments. This study aims at the reconstruction of human activity and past flooding events derived from geochemical and sedimentological data for different time slices within the 20st century. The spatial and chronological distribution of contaminants is investigated on the basis of several sections and drilling cores along the middle reaches of the Wurm River. Sections within mining subsidence areas and outside of those are compared regarding their sedimentation rates and element contents. Additional information is gathered from digital terrain models, historical documents such as the Tranchot map (early 19th century), and interviews of contemporary witnesses. Sedimentation rates derived from Cs-137 measurements allow a temporal assignment of the legacy sediments. A section within a segment of the Siegfried Line (Westwall), constructed in 1939, that crosses the Wurm River shows a significant increase in sedimentation rates in contrast to the floodplain area that is unaffected by subsidence processes. Furthermore, source-specific contaminants can be used to refine the stratigraphy, since source and period of emission are known. The evaluation of past flooding events is supported by numerical modeling of flood scenarios, which provides detailed information about flooded areas depending on the discharge, particularly for the areas which are under influence of mining subsidence. Besides the

  6. Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walker, John F.; Krug, William R.

    2003-01-01

    Flood-frequency characteristics for 312 gaged sites on Wisconsin streams are presented for recurrence intervals of 2 to 100 years using flood-peak data collected through water year 2000. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of these equations. The state was divided into five areas with similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, main-channel slope, soil permeability, storage, rainfall intensity, and forest cover. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 100-year flood discharge ranges from 22 to 44 percent in the state. A graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics of regulated streams was developed from the relation of discharge and drainage area. Graphs for the major regulated streams are presented.

  7. Solar wind variations in the 60-100 year period range: A review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feynman, J.

    1983-01-01

    The evidence for and against the reality of a solar wind variation in the period range of 60-100 years is reexamined. Six data sets are reviewed; sunspot numbers, geomagnetic variations, two auroral data sets and two (14)C data sets. These data are proxies for several different aspects of the solar wind and the presence or absence of 60-100 year cyclic behavior in a particular data set does not necessarily imply the presence or absence of this variation in other sets. It was concluded that two different analyses of proxy data for a particular characteristic of the heliospheric solar wind yielded conflicting results. This conflict can be resolved only by future research. It is also definitely confirmed that proxy data for the solar wind in the ecliptic at 1 A.U. undergo a periodic variation with a period of approximately 87 years. The average amplitude and phase of this variation as seen in eleven cycles of proxy data are presented.

  8. Morphological response of songbirds to 100 years of landscape change in North America.

    PubMed

    Desrochers, A

    2010-06-01

    Major landscape changes caused by humans may create strong selection pressures and induce rapid evolution in natural populations. In the last 100 years, eastern North America has experienced extensive clear-cutting in boreal areas, while afforestation has occurred in most temperate areas. Based on museum specimens, I show that wings of several boreal forest songbirds and temperate songbirds of non-forest habitats have become more pointed over the last 100 years. In contrast, wings of most temperate forest and early-successional boreal forests species have become less pointed over the same period. In contrast to wing shape, the bill length of most species did not change significantly through time. These results are consistent with the "habitat isolation hypothesis", i.e., songbirds evolved in response to recent changes in the amount of available habitat and associated implications for mobility. Rapid morphological evolution may mitigate, without necessarily preventing, negative consequences of habitat loss caused by humans through direct exploitation or climate change.

  9. Solving the Supreme Problem: 100 years of selection and recruitment at the Journal of Applied Psychology.

    PubMed

    Ployhart, Robert E; Schmitt, Neal; Tippins, Nancy T

    2017-03-01

    This article reviews 100 years of research on recruitment and selection published in the Journal of Applied Psychology. Recruitment and selection research has been present in the Journal from the very first issue, where Hall (1917) suggested that the challenge of recruitment and selection was the Supreme Problem facing the field of applied psychology. As this article shows, the various topics related to recruitment and selection have ebbed and flowed over the years in response to business, legal, and societal changes, but this Supreme Problem has captivated the attention of scientist-practitioners for a century. Our review starts by identifying the practical challenges and macro forces that shaped the sciences of recruitment and selection and helped to define the research questions the field has addressed. We then describe the evolution of recruitment and selection research and the ways the resulting scientific advancements have contributed to staffing practices. We conclude with speculations on how recruitment and selection research may proceed in the future. Supplemental material posted online provides additional depth by including a summary of practice challenges and scientific advancements that affected the direction of selection and recruitment research and an outline of seminal articles published in the Journal and corresponding time line. The 100-year anniversary of the Journal of Applied Psychology is very much the celebration of recruitment and selection research, although predictions about the future suggest there is still much exciting work to be done. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.

  11. River flood events as natural tracers for investigating the hydrological dynamics of a coupled river-aquifer system: preliminary results from 3D crosshole electrical resistivity monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coscia, I.; Greenhalgh, S. A.; Linde, N.; Doetsch, J.; Vogt, T.; Green, A. G.

    2009-12-01

    This research, on geoelectric monitoring of changing aquifer conditions associated with flood events of the River Thur in Switzerland, forms part of the much wider RECORD (REstored CORridor Dynamics) project. Major precipitation and snow-melt events cause rapid undamped fluctuations of discharge along the entire length of the river. River water that infiltrates the neighbouring aquifer normally has higher electrical resistivity than that of the groundwater during the early stages of flood events. This enables us to use infiltration during such events as a natural tracer in 3D time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) experiments. Over a 10 x 15 m areal array, we have installed eighteen 12-m-deep monitoring boreholes spaced 3.5 m apart that completely penetrate the underlying 7-m-thick aquifer. Each borehole has been instrumented with ten 0.7-m-spaced electrodes that span the thickness of the aquifer. A multichannel resistivity meter, programmed to cycle through various 4-point electrode configurations of the 180 electrodes in a rolling sub-sequence, allows the collection of a 15,000-measurement data set every ~7 hours. Fourteen of these boreholes are also equipped with STS sensors that provide time-series of water-table depth and water temperature and electrical conductivity. Three-dimensional static ERT inversion at stable hydrological conditions was performed to investigate the resolving capability of our measuring sequence and to define the main lithological structures within the aquifer. Preliminary analyses of the ERT time series collected during a major flooding event this past summer suggest that the data are sensitive to three factors: water-level fluctuations in the aquifer, water-temperature variations, and electrical conductivity changes associated with changing salinity of the groundwater. The total changes in apparent resistivity are of the order of 20%. Since our primary interest is in the salinity effect that might be used to delineate

  12. Urban flood analysis in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; Huntzinger, T.L.; Bergman, D.L.; Patneaude, A.L.

    1983-01-01

    Flood insurance study information from the Federal Emergency Management Agency is utilized to estimate future flood hazard in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Techniques are described for estimating future urban runoff estimates. A method of developing stream cross section rating curves is explained. Future runoff estimates are used in conjuction with the rating curves to develop an estimate of 50- and 100- year flood profiles that would result from future urban development.

  13. Influence of anthropogenic inputs and a high-magnitude flood event on metal contamination pattern in surface bottom sediments from the Deba River urban catchment.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Santos, Miren; Probst, Anne; García-García, Jon; Ruiz-Romera, Estilita

    2015-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of anthropogenic factors (infrastructure construction and industrial and wastewater inputs) and hydrological factors (high-magnitude flood events) on metal and organic contamination and on the source variability of sediments taken from the Deba River and its tributaries. The pollution status was evaluated using a sequential extraction procedure (BCR 701), enrichment factor, individual and global contamination factors and a number of statistical analysis methods. Zn, Cu and Cr were found to have significant input from anthropogenic sources, with moderately severe enrichment, together with an extremely high potential risk of contamination. The principal scavenger of Cu and Cr was organic matter, whereas Zn was uniformly distributed among all non-residual fractions. For Fe, the anthropogenic contribution was more obviously detected in bulk sediments (<2 mm) than in fine fractions (<63 μm). Finally, the recent construction of a rail tunnel traversing Wealden Facies evaporites, together with intense rainfalls, was the main reason for the change in the source variability of bottom sediments and metal distribution in headwaters. The occurrence of a high-magnitude flood event resulted in a washout of the river bed and led to a general decrease in fine-grained sediment and metal concentrations in labile fractions of channel-bottom sediments, and a consequent downstream transfer of the pollution.

  14. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk in Irish catchments to the range of IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor; Sweeney, John

    2011-11-15

    In the face of increased flood risk responsible authorities have set out safety margins to incorporate climate change impacts in building robust flood infrastructure. Using the case study of four catchments in Ireland, this study subjects such design allowances to a sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty inherent in estimates of future flood risk. Uncertainty in flood quantiles is quantified using regionalised climate scenarios derived from a large number of GCMs (17), forced with three SRES emissions scenarios. In terms of hydrological response uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maximia series. Sensitivity results show that for low frequency events, the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greater than for more frequent events, with considerable implications for critical infrastructure. Peak flows for the five return periods assessed were found to be less sensitive to temperature and subsequently to potential evaporation (PET) than to rainfall. The average width of the uncertainty range for changes in flood magnitude is greater for low frequency events than for high frequency events. In all catchments there is a progressive increase in the peak flows associated with the 5, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods when moving from the 2020s to the 2080s.

  15. Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

    2016-04-01

    Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

  16. Floods in Indiana, June-August 1979

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gold, Robert L.; Wolcott, Stephen W.

    1980-01-01

    This report documents rainstorms and resultant floods in central and southern Indiana during the summer of 1979. Major flooding was caused by three storms, one in June and two in July 1979, centered primarily in central and southern Indiana. Peak discharge exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval at 16 sites in this area. State Civil Defense officials estimated that almost 50-million dollars damage was attributable to the July floods. Hydrologic data have been tabulated for streamflow sites in the areas of flooding. Reservoir storage volumes, observation-well data, rainfall totals, and discharge hydrographs are presented to show the intensity and time of the storms and resultant floods. (USGS)

  17. Sedimentary records of eutrophication and hypoxia in the Changjiang Estuary over the last 100 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuwen, F.; Hongliang, L.; Zhao, M.; Xuefa, S.

    2012-12-01

    We selected two cores in the Changjiang Estuary, one located in the Changjiang Estuary mud area (CEMA) within the region of seasonal hypoxia, the other located in the Cheju Island mud area (SCIMA) and outside the hypoxia region. The grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), stable carbon isotopic ratios (δ13 Corg), biomarkers (the sum of brassicasterol, dinosterol and alkenone) and some redox sensitive elements (RSEs) were determined on the 210Pb-dated sediment cores to study potential hundrend-years eutrophication and hypoxia. The sediment record in CEMA showed that an increase in TOC (21%), biomarkers (141%) and δ13 Corg (1.6‰PDB ) occurred since 1950s and a marked increase since 1970s. These distributions indicated the enhanced productivity and establshed the history of eutrophication in the Changjiang Estuary during the past 100 years. Some RSEs have been enriched significantly since the late 1960s to 1970s, the rates of Mo/Al, Cd/Al and As/Al increased about 83%, 73% and 50% respectively. These data may indicate the onset of hypoxia in the Changjiang Estuary during the last 100 years. The increasing of marine organic matter and RSEs accumulation was corresponding with the fertilizer consumption and high nutrient inputs from the Changjiang River. The riverine runoff of fertilizers and nutrients stimulated the algae (e g. brassicasterol, dinosterol) blooming. Enhanced primary production resulted in an enrichment of organic matter and hypoxia invoked organic matter preserved in the sediment. For the core sediment in SCIMA, the geochemical indicators (TOC, biomarkers and δ13Corg ) increased in difference degrees before 1950s~1970s and then were almost the constant. Productivity in the SCIMA have been mainly influenced by climate ocean circulation changes over the last 100 years. The RSEs were controlled by "grain size effects" which indicated no hypoxia occurred. This study concluded that δ13 Corg, RSEs and biomarkers in sediment could be used to trace or

  18. Epic Flooding in Georgia, 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gotvald, Anthony J.; McCallum, Brian E.

    2010-01-01

    Metropolitan Atlanta-September 2009 Floods The epic floods experienced in the Atlanta area in September 2009 were extremely rare. Eighteen streamgages in the Metropolitan Atlanta area had flood magnitudes much greater than the estimated 0.2-percent (500-year) annual exceedance probability. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reported that 23 counties in Georgia were declared disaster areas due to this flood and that 16,981 homes and 3,482 businesses were affected by floodwaters. Ten lives were lost in the flood. The total estimated damages exceed $193 million (H.E. Longenecker, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., November 2009). On Sweetwater Creek near Austell, Ga., just north of Interstate 20, the peak stage was more than 6 feet higher than the estimated peak stage of the 0.2-percent (500-year) flood. Flood magnitudes in Cobb County on Sweetwater, Butler, and Powder Springs Creeks greatly exceeded the estimated 0.2-percent (500-year) floods for these streams. In Douglas County, the Dog River at Ga. Highway 5 near Fairplay had a peak stage nearly 20 feet higher than the estimated peak stage of the 0.2-percent (500-year) flood. On the Chattahoochee River, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage at Vinings reached the highest level recorded in the past 81 years. Gwinnett, De Kalb, Fulton, and Rockdale Counties also had record flooding.South Georgia March and April 2009 FloodsThe March and April 2009 floods in South Georgia were smaller in magnitude than the September floods but still caused significant damage. No lives were lost in this flood. Approximately $60 million in public infrastructure damage occurred to roads, culverts, bridges and a water treatment facility (Joseph T. McKinney, Federal Emergency Management Agency, written commun., July 2009). Flow at the Satilla River near Waycross, exceeded the 0.5-percent (200-year) flood. Flows at seven other stations in South Georgia exceeded the 1-percent (100-year) flood.

  19. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

  20. 100-year DASCH Light Curves of Kepler Planet-Candidate Host Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Sumin; Sasselov, Dimitar; Grindlay, Jonathan; Los, Edward; Servillat, Mathieu

    2013-07-01

    We present 100 year light curves of Kepler planet-candidate host stars from the Digital Access to a Sky Century at Harvard (DASCH) project. 261 out of 997 host stars have at least 10 good measurements on DASCH scans of the Harvard plates. 109 of them have at least 100 good measurements, including 70% (73 out of 104) of all host stars with g ≤ 13 mag, and 44% (100 out of 228) of all host stars with g ≤ 14 mag. Our typical photometric uncertainty is ∼0.1–0.15 mag. No variation is found at 3σ level for these host stars, including 21 confirmed or candidate hot Jupiter systems which might be expected to show enhanced flares from magnetic interactions between dwarf primaries and their close and relatively massive planet companions.

  1. 100 years of Pb deposition and transport in soils in Champaign, Illinois, U.S.A

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zhang, Y.

    2003-01-01

    In Illinois, atmospheric deposition is one major source of heavy metal inputs to agricultural land. The atmospheric Pb deposition and transport record in agricultural soils in Champaign, Illinois, was established by studying surface and subsurface soil samples collected during the past 100 years from the Morrow Plots on the campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The Pb content in the soil samples was measured and the Ph deposition fluxes were calculated. The Pb content in surface soils increased sharply in the first half of the 20th century, and stayed invariant since. The maximum Pb flux from the atmosphere was estimated to be 27 (??14) ??g cm-2 yr-1 around 1940. The major pollution source for this increase probably was residential coal burning. It was estimated that in 50 yr, more than 50% of the Pb input had been lost from the surface soils.

  2. The Reissner Canard: The first all-metal airplane 100 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krause, Egon

    2012-10-01

    In 1912 Professor Hans Reissner of the Technical University Aachen built a canard-type aeroplane, the world-wide first completely out of metal: although the Reissner Canard initiated a new technology with the Junkers J1 the first to follow in 1915 and 1000 more until now, little is known about the very first steps way back in Aachen. This paper tries to recapture some details of the developments 100 years ago with the aid of early publications and photographs and shed some light on the first wing fabricated out of a corrugated aluminum sheet mounted at the tail of the braced-steel-pipe fuselage to earn its airworthiness in Berlin Johannisthal in 1912.

  3. 100 years of applied psychology research on individual careers: From career management to retirement.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mo; Wanberg, Connie R

    2017-03-01

    This article surveys 100 years of research on career management and retirement, with a primary focus on work published in the Journal of Applied Psychology. Research on career management took off in the 1920s, with most attention devoted to the development and validation of career interest inventories. Over time, research expanded to attend to broader issues such as the predictors and outcomes of career interests and choice; the nature of career success and who achieves it; career transitions and adaptability to change; retirement decision making and adjustment; and bridge employment. In this article, we provide a timeline for the evolution of the career management and retirement literature, review major theoretical perspectives and findings on career management and retirement, and discuss important future research directions. (PsycINFO Database Record

  4. Sustainable Foods and Medicines Support Vitality, Sex and Longevity for a 100-Year Starship Expedition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, M. R.

    Extended space flight requires foods and medicines that sustain crew health and vitality. The health and therapeutic needs for the entire crew and their children for a 100-year space flight must be sustainable. The starship cannot depend on resupply or carry a large cargo of pharmaceuticals. Everything in the starship must be completely recyclable and reconstructable, including food, feed, textiles, building materials, pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and medicines. Smart microfarms will produce functional foods with superior nutrition and sensory attributes. These foods provide high-quality protein and nutralence (nutrient density), that avoids obesity, diabetes, and other Western diseases. The combination of functional foods, lifestyle actions, and medicines will support crew immunity, energy, vitality, sustained strong health, and longevity. Smart microfarms enable the production of fresh medicines in hours or days, eliminating the need for a large dispensary, which eliminates concern over drug shelf life. Smart microfarms are adaptable to the extreme growing area, resource, and environmental constraints associated with an extended starship expedition.

  5. 100+ years of instrumental seismology: the example of the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storchak, Dmitry; Di Giacomo, Domenico

    2015-04-01

    Systematic seismological observations of earthquakes using seismic instruments on a global scale began more than 100 years ago. Since then seismologists made many discoveries about the Earth interior and the physics of the earthquakes, also thanks to major developments in the seismic instrumentation deployed around the world. Besides, since the establishment of the first global networks (Milne and Jesuit networks), seismologists around the world stored and exchanged the results of routine observations (e.g., picking of arrival times, amplitude-period measurements, etc.) or more sophisticated analyses (e.g., moment tensor inversion) in seismological bulletins/catalogues. With a project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), the ISC and the Team of International Experts released a new global earthquake catalogue, the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php), which, differently from previous global seismic catalogues, has the unique feature of covering the entire period of instrumental seismology with locations and magnitude re-assessed using modern approaches for the global earthquakes selected for processing (in the current version approximately 21,000). During the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue many seismological developments occurred in terms of instrumentation, seismological practice and knowledge of the physics of the earthquakes. In this contribution we give a brief overview of the major milestones characterizing the last 100+ years of instrumental seismology that were relevant for the production of the ISC-GEM catalogue and the major challenges we faced to obtain a catalogue as homogenous as possible.

  6. Reconstruction of peak water levels, peak discharges and long-term occurrence of extreme- as well as smaller pre-instrumental flood events of river Aare, Limmat, Reuss, Rhine and Saane in Switzerland. Part I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetter, Oliver; Tuttenuj, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    Part I: Dr. Oliver Wetter. (Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) Part II: PhD student Daniel Tuttenuj (Oeschger Centre of Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland) The methodology developed by Wetter et al. (2011) combines different documentary and instrumental sources, retaining relevant information for the reconstruction of extreme pre-instrumental flood events. These include hydrological measurements (gauges), historic river profiles (cross and longitudinal profiles), flood marks, historic city maps, documentary flood evidence (reports in chronicles and newspapers) as well as paintings and drawings. It has been shown that extreme river Rhine flood events of the pre-instrumental period can be reconstructed in terms of peak discharges for the last 750 years by applying this methodology to the site of Basel. Pfister & Wetter (2011) furthermore demonstrated that this methodology is also principally transferable to other locations and rivers. Institutional documentary evidence has not been systematically analysed in the context of historical hydrology in Switzerland so far. The term institutional documentary evidence generally outlines sources that were produced by governments or other (public) bodies including the church, hospitals, and the office of the bridge master. Institutional bodies were typically not directly interested in describing climate or hydrological events but they were obliged to document their activities, especially if they generated financial costs (bookkeeping), and in doing so they often indirectly recorded climatologic or hydrological events. The books of weekly expenditures of Basel ("Wochenausgabenbücher der Stadt Basel") were first analysed by Fouquet (1999). He found recurring records of wage expenditures for a squad of craftsmen that was called up onto the bridge with the task of preventing the bridge from being damaged by fishing out drifting logs from the flood waters. Fouquet

  7. Reconstruction of peak water levels, peak discharges and long-term occurrence of extreme- as well as smaller pre-instrumental flood events of river Aare, Limmat, Reuss, Rhine and Saane in Switzerland. Part II.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuttenuj, Daniel; Wetter, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    The methodology developed by Wetter et al. (2011) combines different documentary and instrumental sources, retaining relevant information for the reconstruction of extreme pre-instrumental flood events. These include hydrological measurements (gauges), historic river profiles (cross and longitudinal profiles), flood marks, historic city maps, documentary flood evidence (reports in chronicles and newspapers) as well as paintings and drawings. It has been shown that extreme river Rhine flood events of the pre-instrumental period can be reconstructed in terms of peak discharges for the last 750 years by applying this methodology to the site of Basel. Pfister & Wetter (2011) furthermore demonstrated that this methodology is also principally transferable to other locations and rivers in Switzerland. Institutional documentary evidence has not been systematically analysed in the context of historical hydrology in Switzerland so far. The term institutional documentary evidence generally outlines sources that were produced by governments or other (public) bodies including the church, hospitals, and the office of the bridge master. Institutional bodies were typically not directly interested in describing climate or hydrological events but they were obliged to document their activities, especially if they generated financial costs (bookkeeping), and in doing so they often indirectly recorded climatologic or hydrological events. The books of weekly expenditures of Basel ("Wochenausgabenbücher der Stadt Basel") were first analysed by Fouquet (1999). He found recurring records of wage expenditures for a squad of craftsmen that was called up onto the bridge with the task of preventing the bridge from being damaged by fishing out drifting logs from the flood waters. Fouquet systematically analysed the period from 1446-1542 and could prove a large number of pre-instrumental flood events of river Rhine, Birs, Birsig and Wiese in Basel. All in all the weekly led account books

  8. Assessing the influence of climate change on flooding hazards following tropical cyclone events in the Southeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Monica Helen

    Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20% more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the Southeast United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model flow along these rivers from 1998-2014 with 20% more precipitation during tropical cyclones. The results of this study show that an increase in tropical cyclone precipitation due to future climate change may increase peak flows at the mouths of these Southeast rivers by ˜7-18%. Most tropical cyclones that impact these river basins occur during the low discharge season, and thus rarely produce flooding conditions at their mouths. An extension of the current hurricane season of June-November, due to global climate warming, could encroach upon the wet season in these basins and lead to increased flooding. On average, this analysis shows that an extension of the hurricane season to May-December increased flooding susceptibility by 63% for the rivers analyzed in this study. That is, 4-6 more days per year likely would have been above bankfull discharge if an average tropical cyclone had occurred any day (based on 1998-2014 data) in the months May-December than in the current hurricane season months of June-November. More research is needed on the mechanisms and processes involved in the water balance of the four rivers analyzed in this study, and others in the Southeast United States, and how this is likely to change in the near future with global climate warming.

  9. Natural Flood Management in context: evaluating and enhancing the impact.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

    2016-04-01

    The series of flood events in the UK throughout December 2015 have led to calls for a reappraisal of the country's approach to flood management. In parts of Cumbria so-called "1 in 100" year floods have occurred three times in the last ten years, leading to significant infrastructure damage. Hard-engineered defences upgraded to cope with an anticipated 20% increase in peak flows and these 1% AEP events have been overwhelmed. It has become more widely acknowledged that unsympathetic agricultural and upland management practices, mainly since the Second World War, have led to a significant loss of storage in mid and upper catchments and their consequent ability to retain and slow storm run-off. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a nature-based solution to restoring this storage and flood peak attenuation through a network of small-scale features exploiting natural topography and materials. Combined with other "soft" interventions such as restoring flood plain roughness and tree-planting, NFM offers the attractive prospect of an intervention that can target both the ecological and chemical objectives of the Water Framework Directive and the resilience demanded by the Floods Directive. We developed a simple computerised physical routing model that can account for the presence of in-channel and offline features such as would be found in a NFM scheme. These will add storage to the channel and floodplain and throttle the downstream discharge at storm flows. The model was applied to the heavily-modified channel network of an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire using the run-off simulated for two storm events that caused flooding downstream in the autumn of 2012. Using up to 60 online features we demonstrated some gains in channel storage and a small impact on the flood hydrograph which would, however, have been insufficient to prevent the downstream floods in either of the storms. Complementary research at JBA has applied their hydrodynamic model JFLOW+ to identify

  10. Flood-prone areas of Jacksonville, Duval County, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stone, Richard B.; Causey, Lawson V.; Tucker, D.F.

    1976-01-01

    Floods in the consolidated city of Jacksonville, Duval County, Florida, are caused directly by rainfall which, when combined with storm driven tides, causes rivers or other bodies of water to flood the low lying parts of the county. This map report supplies information on areas subject to floods of 100-year frequency; the information will permit evaluation of alternative uses of such areas. The extent of the 100-year flood is shown on the large-scale map accompanying the report. Also included is an index map showing sections of Duval County where more detailed information on the 100-year flood can be obtained. The major flood of record in the county occurred in 1964 when Hurricane Dora crossed the area. (Woodard-USGS)

  11. On the Influence of the NAO on Outlet Glacier Stability in SE Greenland during the Past 100 Years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andresen, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Greenland Ice sheet has gained massive attention in recent years due to a sudden increase in mass loss at the onset of this century. A significant part of this mass loss has been attributed to increased ice discharge at the margin through iceberg calving from marine-terminating outlet glaciers. However, due to the lack of instrumental data beyond the past 20-30 years it is difficult to evaluate if this was an outstanding event or if it was part of a recurring phenomenon acting on inter-annual, inter-decadal or centennial timescales. In order to improve understanding of the timescales involved in glacier changes and on the influence of ocean and atmosphere variability we investigate sediment archives from fjords with marine terminating glaciers. Near the glacier margin the sedimentation rates are relatively high due to glacial flour input and rafting of iceberg debris. Our studies of several sediment cores obtained from Sermilik Fjord by Helheim Glacier in Southeast Greenland has allowed us to reconstruct glacier calving, shelf temperature and fjord water renewal rate for the past 100 years. These studies show that dominant modes of climate variability, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, affect ocean properties near the glacier and that the recorded variability concurs with reconstructed outlet glacier changes. This presentation provides an overview these studies.

  12. Quantifying the in-channel retention of cohesive sediments during artificial flood events using FTIR-DRIFT spectrometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurtenbach, A.; Gallé, T.; Buis, K.; de Sutter, R.; Troch, P.; Eisold, B.; Bierl, R.; Symader, W.

    2010-05-01

    Cohesive sediments control river ecosystem quality both as a transport medium for contaminants and as clogging material of stream bottom habitats. However, experimental field studies with fine-grained sediments in fluvial systems are rather scarce owing to the lack of adequate tracers and detection methods. As a result, current modelling approaches only insufficiently describe hydrodynamic transport and depositional behaviour of fine-grained sediments in rivers. We adopted two strategies to specifically study cohesive sediment dynamics in natural systems under defined boundary conditions. First, artificial floods were generated in the Olewiger Bach basin (24 km²), a mid-mountain gravel bed river, in order to characterise the in-channel fine sediment dynamics on their own. The advantage of these artificial flood waves lies in the selective control on some governing processes by experimental design. Second, fine sediment transport and deposition during these controlled reservoir releases were analysed by introducing the clay mineral kaolinite as a fine particle tracer, whose concentration was measured by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in diffuse reflectance mode (DRIFT). The DRIFT technique offers some important advantages such as the ability to assess both mineral and organic structures in aquatic particles, good sensitivity and high throughput (Gallé et al. 2004). Our laboratory tests confirm that FTIR-DRIFT spectrometry is capable of detecting the kaolinite tracer even in low percentage solid concentrations. The mass balance of the injected kaolinite for near bank-full artificial floods showed that, in spite of the very fine material and the non-stationary boundary conditions, over 50 percent of the tracer could be retained over a flow length of only 500 m. By combining fine particulate and natural dissolved tracers (e.g. dissolved organic carbon, DOC) we were able to identify the hyporheic zone as a potential short-term retention and storage

  13. Floods in central, Southwest Oklahoma, October 17-23, 1983

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hauth, L.D.

    1985-01-01

    Storms of October 17-23, 1983, produced as much as 17 inches of rain as a result of Hurricane Tico. Rainfall amounts exceeded the 100-year, 24-hour storm frequency in some areas of the central and southwest parts of Oklahoma. An 11-county area experienced flooding with damages exceeding $12 million. Peak discharges were determined during and after the flood at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations and one miscellaneous location. Streamflow in some areas exceeded the estimated 100-year flood. Flood hydrographs and rainfall mass curves are presented for gaging stations located in areas of greater precipitation.

  14. Stages of the pathologic process in Alzheimer disease: age categories from 1 to 100 years.

    PubMed

    Braak, Heiko; Thal, Dietmar R; Ghebremedhin, Estifanos; Del Tredici, Kelly

    2011-11-01

    Two thousand three hundred and thirty two nonselected brains from 1- to 100-year-old individuals were examined using immunocytochemistry (AT8) and Gallyas silver staining for abnormal tau; immunocytochemistry (4G8) and Campbell-Switzer staining were used for the detection ofβ-amyloid. A total of 342 cases was negative in the Gallyas stain but when restaged for AT8 only 10 were immunonegative. Fifty-eight cases had subcortical tau predominantly in the locus coeruleus, but there was no abnormal cortical tau (subcortical Stages a-c). Cortical involvement (abnormal tau in neurites) was identified first in the transentorhinal region (Stage 1a, 38 cases). Transentorhinal pyramidal cells displayed pretangle material (Stage 1b, 236 cases). Pretangles gradually became argyrophilic neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) that progressed in parallel with NFT Stages I to VI. Pretangles restricted to subcortical sites were seen chiefly at younger ages. Of the total cases, 1,031 (44.2%) had β-amyloid plaques. The first plaques occurred in the neocortex after the onset of tauopathy in the brainstem. Plaques generally developed in the 40s in 4% of all cases, culminating in their tenth decade (75%). β-amyloid plaques and NFTs were significantly correlated (p < 0.0001). These data suggest that tauopathy associated with sporadic Alzheimer disease may begin earlier than previously thought and possibly in the lower brainstem rather than in the transentorhinal region.

  15. Physiological and morphological acclimation to height in cupressoid leaves of 100-year-old Chamaecyparis obtusa.

    PubMed

    Shiraki, Ayumi; Azuma, Wakana; Kuroda, Keiko; Ishii, H Roaki

    2016-10-15

    Cupressoid (scale-like) leaves are morphologically and functionally intermediate between stems and leaves. While past studies on height acclimation of cupressoid leaves have focused on acclimation to the vertical light gradient, the relationship between morphology and hydraulic function remains unexplored. Here, we compared physiological and morphological characteristics between treetop and lower-crown leaves of 100-year-old Chamaecyparis obtusa Endl. trees (~27 m tall) to investigate whether height-acclimation compensates for hydraulic constraints. We found that physiological acclimation of leaves was determined by light, which drove the vertical gradient of evaporative demand, while leaf morphology and anatomy were determined by height. Compared with lower-crown leaves, treetop leaves were physiologically acclimated to water stress. Leaf hydraulic conductance was not affected by height, and this contributed to higher photosynthetic rates of treetop leaves. Treetop leaves had higher leaf area density and greater leaf mass per area, which increase light interception but could also decrease hydraulic efficiency. We inferred that transfusion tissue flanking the leaf vein, which was more developed in the treetop leaves, contributes to water-stress acclimation and maintenance of leaf hydraulic conductance by facilitating osmotic adjustment of leaf water potential and efficient water transport from xylem to mesophyll. Our findings may represent anatomical adaptation that compensates for hydraulic constraints on physiological function with increasing height.

  16. [Nutrient dynamics over the past 100 years and its restoration baseline in Dianshan Lake].

    PubMed

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Chen, Xiao-Hua; Dong, Xu-Hui; Dong, Zhi; Sun, Dun-Ping

    2012-10-01

    The restoration of eutrophic lakes requires a good knowledge on the history and baseline of nutrients in the lakes. This work conducted an analysis on 210Pb/137Cs, water content, loss-on-ignition, sedimentary total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), total organic carbon (TOC) and diatoms in the four sediment cores from Dianshan Lake (near Shanghai City). Good coherence in palaeoproxies between the cores indicates a relatively stable sedimentary environment. With increasing human impact, diatom communities shifted from oligo-trophic species Cyclotella bodanica, C. ocelata, Achnanthes minutissima, Cocconeis placentula var lineate, Cymbella sp. , Fragilaria pintata, F. brevistrata, F. construens var venter to recent eutrophic species including Cyclostephanos dubias, C. atomus, Stephanodiscus minitulus, S. hantzschi, Aulacoseria alpigena. The epilimnetic TP over the past 100 years reconstructed using an established diatom-TP transfer function matches well with the monitoring TP where exists. Based on the sedimentary nutrient characteristics and diatom-reconstructed nutrient dynamics, we proposed that the nutrient baseline for Dianshan Lake is 50-60 microg x L(-1), 500 mg x kg(-1) and 550 mg x kg(-1) for water TP concentration, sedimentary TP and TN, respectively.

  17. Under Connecticut Skies: Exploring 100 Years of Astronomy at Van Vleck Observatory in Middletown, Connecticut

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilgard, Roy E.; Williams, Amrys; Erickson, Paul; Herbst, William; Redfield, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Under Connecticut Skies examines the history of astronomy at Van Vleck Observatory, located on the campus of Wesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut. Since its dedication in June of 1916, Van Vleck has been an important site of astronomical research, teaching, and public outreach. Over a thousand visitors pass through the observatory each year, and regular public observing nights happen year-round in cooperation with the Astronomical Society of Greater Hartford. Our project explores the place-based nature of astronomical research, the scientific instruments, labor, and individuals that have connected places around the world in networks of observation, and the broader history of how observational astronomy has linked local people, amateur observers, professional astronomers, and the tools and objects that have facilitated their work under Connecticut’s skies over the past 100 years. Our research team has produced a historical exhibition to help commemorate the observatory’s centennial that opened to the public in May of 2016. Our work included collecting, documenting, and interpretting this history through objects, archival documents, oral histories, photographs, and more. The result is both a museum and a working history "laboratory" for use by student and professional researchers. In addition to the exhibit itself, we have engaged in new interpretive programs to help bring the history of astronomy to life. Future work will include digitization of documents and teaching slides, further collection of oral histories, and expanding the collection to the web for use by off-site researches.

  18. 100 years of relativity. Space-time structure: Einstein and beyond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashtekar, Abhay

    2005-11-01

    Thanks to Einstein's relativity theories, our notions of space and time underwent profound revisions about a 100 years ago. The resulting interplay between geometry and physics has dominated all of fundamental physics since then. This volume contains contributions from leading researchers, worldwide, who have thought deeply about the nature and consequences of this interplay. The articles take a long-range view of the subject and distill the most important advances in broad terms, making them easily accessible to non-specialists. The first part is devoted to a summary of how relativity theories were born (J. Stachel). The second part discusses the most dramatic ramifications of general relativity, such as black holes (P. Chrusciel and R. Price), space-time singularities (H. Nicolai and A. Rendall), gravitational waves (P. Laguna and P. Saulson), the large scale structure of the cosmos (T. Padmanabhan); experimental status of this theory (C. Will) as well as its practical application to the GPS system (N. Ashby). The last part looks beyond Einstein and provides glimpses into what is in store for us in the 21st century. Contributions here include summaries of radical changes in the notions of space and time that are emerging from quantum field theory in curved space-times (Ford), string theory (T. Banks), loop quantum gravity (A. Ashtekar), quantum cosmology (M. Bojowald), discrete approaches (Dowker, Gambini and Pullin) and twistor theory (R Penrose).

  19. Tsunami flooding

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric; Jones, Henry; McBride, Mark; Fedors, Randy

    2013-01-01

    Panel 5 focused on tsunami flooding with an emphasis on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) as derived from its counterpart, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) that determines seismic ground-motion hazards. The Panel reviewed current practices in PTHA and determined the viability of extending the analysis to extreme design probabilities (i.e., 10-4 to 10-6). In addition to earthquake sources for tsunamis, PTHA for extreme events necessitates the inclusion of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides, and treatment of the large attendant uncertainty in source characterization and recurrence rates. Tsunamis can be caused by local and distant earthquakes, landslides, volcanism, and asteroid/meteorite impacts. Coastal flooding caused by storm surges and seiches is covered in Panel 7. Tsunamis directly tied to earthquakes, the similarities with (and path forward offered by) the PSHA approach for PTHA, and especially submarine landslide tsunamis were a particular focus of Panel 5.

  20. Estimating regional long-term economic consequences of natural hazards - a case study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfurtscheller, C.; Lochner, B.; Brucker, A.

    2012-04-01

    The interaction of relief-driven alpine natural processes with the anthropogenic sphere often leads to natural disasters which significantly impact on remote alpine economies. When evaluating the effects of such events for future risk prevention strategies, it is essential to assess indirect losses. While the economic measurement of direct effects - the physical impact on structures and infrastructure - seems fairly manageable, less is known about the dimensions of indirect effects, especially on a local and regional scale within the Alps. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods to estimate indirect economic effects currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the main drivers of indirect effects and interrupted economic flows. In collaboration with the Federal State administration, we extrapolate the total regional economic effects of this catastrophic event. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. We mainly focus on the decrease in value creation and the negative impacts on tourism. We observed that disrupted traffic networks can have a highly negative impact, especially for the tourism sector in lateral alpine valleys. Within a month, turnover fell by approximately EUR 3.3 million in the investigated area. In the short run (until August 2006), the shortfall in touristic revenues in the Paznaun valley aggregated to approx. EUR 5.3 million. We observed that overnight stays rebound very quickly so that long-term effects are marginal. In addition, we tried to identify possible economical losers as well as winners of severe hazard impacts. In response to such flood events, high investments are made to improve disaster and risk management. Nearly 70% of the respondents specified the (re)construction sector and similar

  1. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

  2. Evolution of flood typology across Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Parajka, Juraj; Viglione, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Following the frequent occurrence of severe flood events in different parts of Europe in the recent past, there has been a rise in interest in understanding the mechanisms by which the different events have been triggered and how they have been evolving over time. This study was carried out to establish the characteristics of observed flood events in the past across Europe in terms of their spatial extent and the processes leading up to the events using a process based hydrological model. To this end, daily discharge data from more than 750 stations of the Global Runoff Data Center were used to identify flood events at the stations based on a threshold method for the period 1961-2010. The identified events at the different stations were further analyzed to determine whether they form the same flood event, thereby delineating the spatial extent of the flood events. The pan-European hydrological model, E-HYPE, which runs at a daily time step, was employed to estimate a set of catchment hydrological and hydro-meteorological state variables that are relevant in the flood generating process for each of the identified spatially delineated flood events. A subsequent clustering of the events based on the simulated state variables, together with the spatial extent of the flood events, was used to identify the flood generating mechanism of each flood event. Four general flood generation mechanisms were identified: long-rain flood, short-rain flood, snowmelt flood, and rain-on-snow flood. A trend analysis was performed to investigate how the frequency of each of the flood types has changed over time. In order to investigate whether there is a regional and seasonal pattern in the dominant flood generating mechanisms, this analysis was performed separately for winter and summer seasons and three different regions of Europe: Northern, Western, and Eastern Europe. The results show a regional difference both in the dominant flood generating mechanism and the corresponding trends.

  3. High-fidelity numerical modeling of the Upper Mississippi River under extreme flood condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khosronejad, Ali; Le, Trung; DeWall, Petra; Bartelt, Nicole; Woldeamlak, Solomon; Yang, Xiaolei; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

    2016-12-01

    We present data-driven numerical simulations of extreme flooding in a large-scale river coupling coherent-structure resolving hydrodynamics with bed morphodynamics under live-bed conditions. The study area is a ∼ 3.2 km long and ∼ 300 m wide reach of the Upper Mississippi River, near Minneapolis MN, which contains several natural islands and man-made hydraulic structures. We employ the large-eddy simulation (LES) and bed-morphodynamic modules of the Virtual Flow Simulator (VFS-Rivers) model, a recently developed in-house code, to investigate the flow and bed evolution of the river during a 100-year flood event. The coupling of the two modules is carried out via a fluid-structure interaction approach using a nested domain approach to enhance the resolution of bridge scour predictions. We integrate data from airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), sub-aqueous sonar apparatus on-board a boat and in-situ laser scanners to construct a digital elevation model of the river bathymetry and surrounding flood plain, including islands and bridge piers. A field campaign under base-flow condition is also carried out to collect mean flow measurements via Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) to validate the hydrodynamic module of the VFS-Rivers model. Our simulation results for the bed evolution of the river under the 100-year flood reveal complex sediment transport dynamics near the bridge piers consisting of both scour and refilling events due to the continuous passage of sand dunes. We find that the scour depth near the bridge piers can reach to a maximum of ∼ 9 m. The data-driven simulation strategy we present in this work exemplifies a practical simulation-based-engineering-approach to investigate the resilience of infrastructures to extreme flood events in intricate field-scale riverine systems.

  4. Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in a flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kysely, J.; Picek, J.

    2007-07-01

    Due to synoptic-climatological reasons as well as a specific configuration of mountain ranges, the northeast part of the Czech Republic is an area with an enhanced influence of low-pressure systems of the Mediterranean origin. They are associated with an upper-level advection of warm and moist air and often lead to heavy precipitation events. Particularities of this area are evaluated using a regional frequency analysis. The northeast region is identified as a homogeneous one according to tests on statistical characteristics of precipitation extremes (annual maxima of 1- to 7-day amounts), and observed distributions follow a different model compared to the surrounding area. Noteworthy is the heavy tail of distributions of multi-day events, reflected also in inapplicability of the L-moment estimators for the general 4-parameter kappa distribution utilized in Monte Carlo simulations in regional homogeneity and goodness-of-fit tests. We overcome this issue by using the maximum likelihood estimation. The Generalized Logistic distribution is identified as the most suitable one for modelling annual maxima; advantages of the regional over local approach to the frequency analysis consist mainly in reduced uncertainty of the growth curves and design value estimates. The regional growth curves are used to derive probabilities of recurrence of recent heavy precipitation events associated with major floods in the Odra river basin.

  5. Characterizing 13 Years of Surface Water Variability from MODIS-based Near Real-Time Flood Mapping Products in the Indus River, Tonle Sap Lake, and Lake Chad.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slayback, D. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Policelli, F. S.

    2015-12-01

    Driven by an increase in extreme weather events in a warming world, flooding appears to be increasing in many regions. Since 2012, we have been using the twice-daily near-global observations of the two MODIS instruments to operate a near real-time flood mapping capability. Primarily intended to support disaster response efforts, our system generates daily near-global maps of flood water extent, at 250 m resolution. Although cloud cover is a challenge, the twice-daily coverage from the Terra and Aqua satellites helps to capture most major events. We use the MOD44W product (the "MODIS 250-m land-water mask") to differentiate "normal" water from flood water. Products from the system are freely available, and used by disaster response agencies and academic and industry researchers. An open question, however, is: how "normal" are recently observed floods? Destructive and — as reported by the press — record floods seem to be occurring more and more frequently. With the MODIS archive going back to 1999 (Terra satellite) and 2002 (Aqua satellite), we now have more than a decade of twice-daily near-global observations to begin answering this question. Although the 13 years of available twice-daily data (2002-2015) are not sufficient to fully characterize surface water normals (e.g., 100-year floods), we can start examining recent trends in surface water extent and flood frequency. To do so, we have back-processed our surface water product through mid-2002 (Aqua launch) for a few regions, and have used this to evaluate the variability in surface water extent and flood frequency. These results will eventually feed back into an improved characterization of flood water in our near real-time flood product. Here we will present results on trends in surface water extent and flood frequency for a few regions, including the Indus in Pakistan, the Tonle Sap lake in Cambodia, and lake Chad in Africa.

  6. Flood risk on the Black sea coast of Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alekseevsky, Nikolay; Magritsky, Dmitry; Koltermann, Peter; Krylenko, Inna; Umina, Natalya; Aybulatov, Denis; Efremova, Natalya; Lebedeva, Seraphima

    2013-04-01

    The data of unique database "Floods in the coastal zones of Europeans part of Russia", developed by authors, are shown, that frequency of floods and damage in the coastal zones are growing. There is most dangerous situation on the Black sea coast of Russia. Here the main part of settlements, resorts and industry is situated in the river valleys and mouths. All main roads and pipelines cross the river channels. The Black sea rivers have flood regime with high intensity of flood formations and huge destructive flood power. Despite prevalence of floods during the cold period of year the most part of high floods in 100 years of supervision was noted here in the summer-fall (65% in July-October). Usually they were induced by the showers connected with passing of powerful cyclones, atmospheric fronts, and water tornadoes. The insignificant part of floods was connected with snow melting, backwater phenomena, showers in the cities and dam breaks. Thus shower induced floods here are the most widespread and destructive. Usually they arise within two-three watersheds simultaneously. Formation catastrophic heavy rain flood is possible on any site of a river valley of the Black Sea coast. The wave of a high water moves with very high speed, carrying a large number of deposits and garbage. To the mouth the flood can be transformed into debris flow. The water levels during a high water period rise on 3-6 m in the channels, and up to 11-12 m in the river canyons; the maximum depths of flow on the floodplains are 3 m and more. Flooding depths, induced by slope streams, can be to 0,5 m and higher. Flooding proceeds only some hours. After that water rather quickly flows down from a floodplains to the bed of the rivers and into the sea, leaving traces of destructions, a powerful layer of deposits (to 10-20 cm and more) and garbage. In the mouth river deposits quite often form the river mouth bar which is washed away during next storms. The damage from river floods on the Black Sea

  7. An epidemiological review of changes in meningococcal biology during the last 100 years

    PubMed Central

    Abio, Anne; Neal, Keith R; Beck, Charles R

    2013-01-01

    Aim The aim of this study was to assess changes in trends of meningococcal disease and strain diversity of Neisseria meningitidis in Europe, South America, and Africa over the last 100 years. Methods Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched in 2012 and records were screened against the protocol eligibility criteria using a three-stage sifting process. Studies included in the review were subject to data extraction. Results were summarised using a narrative approach. Results Serogroup A was the dominant cause of invasive meningococcal disease in Europe before and during World Wars I and II. Whilst serogroup B has been dominant from the 1970s in Europe and the 1980s in South America, outbreaks have emerged associated with serogroups W135 and Y in the twenty-first century. There has been a shift in the age groups affected by invasive meningococcal disease with an increase in incidence among the elderly associated with serogroup Y and a decline in serogroup C among adolescent populations. Recent outbreaks of serogroup W135 have occurred in some countries in South America. The epidemiological trend of invasive meningococcal disease has remained largely static across Africa and dominated by serogroup A although recently serogroups X and W135 have accounted for a large proportion of morbidity and mortality. Conclusion The epidemiology of N. meningitidis has been dynamic in Europe and South America especially over the last 30 years. Routine vaccination with serogroup C vaccines has led to reduced carriage and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease and herd immunity. PMID:24392681

  8. 100 years of California’s water rights system: patterns, trends and uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grantham, Theodore E.; Viers, Joshua H.

    2014-08-01

    For 100 years, California’s State Water Resources Control Board and its predecessors have been responsible for allocating available water supplies to beneficial uses, but inaccurate and incomplete accounting of water rights has made the state ill-equipped to satisfy growing societal demands for water supply reliability and healthy ecosystems. Here, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of appropriative water rights to identify where, and to what extent, water has been dedicated to human uses relative to natural supplies. The results show that water right allocations total 400 billion cubic meters, approximately five times the state’s mean annual runoff. In the state’s major river basins, water rights account for up to 1000% of natural surface water supplies, with the greatest degree of appropriation observed in tributaries to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and in coastal streams in southern California. Comparisons with water supplies and estimates of actual use indicate substantial uncertainty in how water rights are exercised. In arid regions such as California, over-allocation of surface water coupled with trends of decreasing supply suggest that new water demands will be met by re-allocation from existing uses. Without improvements to the water rights system, growing human and environmental demands portend an intensification of regional water scarcity and social conflict. California’s legal framework for managing its water resources is largely compatible with needed reforms, but additional public investment is required to enhance the capacity of the state’s water management institutions to effectively track and regulate water rights.

  9. The Archives of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism: Documenting 100 Years of Carnegie Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, S. J.

    2005-12-01

    The archives of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism (DTM) of the Carnegie Institution of Washington document more than a century of geophysical and astronomical investigations. Primary source materials available for historical research include field and laboratory notebooks, equipment designs, plans for observatories and research vessels, scientists' correspondence, and thousands of expedition and instrument photographs. Yet despite its history, DTM long lacked a systematic approach to managing its documentary heritage. A preliminary records survey conducted in 2001 identified more than 1,000 linear feet of historically-valuable records languishing in dusty, poorly-accessible storerooms. Intellectual control at that time was minimal. With support from the National Historical Publications and Records Commission, the "Carnegie Legacy Project" was initiated in 2003 to preserve, organize, and facilitate access to DTM's archival records, as well as those of the Carnegie Institution's administrative headquarters and Geophysical Laboratory. Professional archivists were hired to process the 100-year backlog of records. Policies and procedures were established to ensure that all work conformed to national archival standards. Records were appraised, organized, and rehoused in acid-free containers, and finding aids were created for the project web site. Standardized descriptions of each collection were contributed to the WorldCat bibliographic database and the AIP International Catalog of Sources for History of Physics. Historic photographs and documents were digitized for online exhibitions to raise awareness of the archives among researchers and the general public. The success of the Legacy Project depended on collaboration between archivists, librarians, historians, data specialists, and scientists. This presentation will discuss key aspects (funding, staffing, preservation, access, outreach) of the Legacy Project and is aimed at personnel in observatories, research

  10. To Humbly Go: Guarding Against Perpetuating Models of Colonization in the 100-Year Starship Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kramer, W. R.

    Past patterns of exploration, colonization and exploitation on Earth continue to provide the predominant paradigms that guide many space programs. Any project of crewed space exploration, especially of the magnitude envisioned by the 100-Year Starship Study, must guard against the hubris that may emerge among planners, crew, and others associated with the project, including those industries and bureaucracies that will emerge from the effort. Maintaining a non-exploitative approach may be difficult in consideration of the century of preparatory research and development and the likely multigenerational nature of the voyage itself. Starting now with mission dreamers and planners, the purpose of the voyage must be cast as one of respectful learning and humble discovery, not of conquest (either actual or metaphorical) or other inappropriate models, including military. At a minimum, the Study must actively build non-violence into the voyaging culture it is beginning to create today. References to exploitive colonization, conquest, destiny and other terms from especially American frontier mythology, while tempting in their propagandizing power, should be avoided as they limit creative thinking about alternative possible futures. Future voyagers must strive to adapt to new environments wherever possible and be assimilated by new worlds both biologically and behaviorally rather than to rely on attempts to recreate the Earth they have left. Adaptation should be strongly considered over terraforming. This paper provides an overview of previous work linking the language of colonization to space programs and challenges the extension of the myth of the American frontier to the Starship Study. It argues that such metaphors would be counter-productive at best and have the potential to doom long-term success and survival by planting seeds of social decay and self-destruction. Cautions and recommendations are suggested.

  11. Flood study of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown, New Hampshire, 2009

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flynn, Robert H.

    2010-01-01

    On May 15, 2006, a breach in the riverbank caused an avulsion in the Suncook River in Epsom, NH. The breach in the riverbank and subsequent avulsion changed the established flood zones along the Suncook River; therefore, a new flood study was needed to reflect this change and aid in flood recovery and restoration. For this flood study, the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses for the Suncook River were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This report presents water-surface elevations and profiles determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers one-dimensional Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System model, also known as HEC-RAS. Steady-state water-surface profiles were developed for the Suncook River from its confluence with the Merrimack River in the Village of Suncook (in Allenstown and Pembroke, NH) to the upstream corporate limit of the town of Epsom, NH (approximately 15.9 river miles). Floods of magnitudes that are expected to be equaled or exceeded once on the average during any 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, or 500-year period (recurrence interval) were modeled using HEC-RAS. These flood events are referred to as the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods and have a 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent chance, respectively, of being equaled or exceeded during any year. The 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood events are important for flood-plain management, determination of flood-insurance rates, and design of structures such as bridges and culverts. The analyses in this study reflect flooding potentials that are based on existing conditions in the communities of Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown at the time of completion of this study (2009). Changes in the 100-year recurrence-interval flood elevation from the 1979 flood study were typically less than 2 feet with the exception of a location 900 feet upstream from the avulsion that, because of backwater from the dams in the

  12. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  13. Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Wisconsin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conger, Duane H.

    1971-01-01

    This report provides methods for estimating flood characteristics at most sites where flood information may be needed for planning and design and summatizes the significant flood data and related information available on Wisconsin streams. Individual equations are presented for estimating flood discharges for selected recurrence intervals up to a 25-year flood for drainage areas 0.5 square miles and larger, a 50-year flood for drainage areas 20 square miles and larger, and a 100-year flood for drainage areas 50 square miles and larger. A ratio method is used for estimating a 50-year flood for drainage areas 0.5 to 20 square miles. The equations were defined from multiple-regression analysis of flood peak records and basin characteristics for 119 continuous-record gaging stations and 114 crest-stage partial-record stations in Wisconsin and adjoining States. Of the severai basin characteristics used in this study, only drainage area, main-channel slope, lake and marsh area, and areal factors were found to be statistically significant at the 99 percent effectiveness level for all flood frequencies. Solution of a hypothetical problem is given for using the flood-frequency equations. Graphs are presented for solution of flood discharges on regulated streams where the formulas are not applicable. Flood-frequency characteristics, 2-year flood to 100-year flood, and drainage basin characteristics for stations used in the multiple regression are presented in the appendices of this report.

  14. Preliminary estimation of the peak discharge at the Su Gologone spring (Central-East Sardinia) during the flood event of November 18th, 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cossu, Antonello; De Waele, Jo; Sanna, Francesco; Sanna, Laura

    2014-05-01

    Last November 2013, an exceptional rainfall has occurred in Sardinia causing 18 casualties at Olbia and Bitti and severe economic damage to infrastructures and land in many areas (e.g. Torpè and Cedrino plains). From a meteorological point of view, this rainfall event was caused by south-western warm and humid air currents moving from Africa coming in contact with cold air masses located above the higher parts of the island, creating convective phenomena of a certain intensity. Estimating the peak discharge of the rivers related to these high intensity rainfall events is of fundamental importance to improve flood-risk management and to prevent and/or reduce the damages. In carbonate areas, quantifying the karst aquifer recharge is an even more difficult task due to the fact that the precipitation and resulting surface flow is rapidly transferred to the underground cave systems, and then suddenly released at karst outflows. We report the case of the Su Gologone spring, in Supramonte area (Central-East Sardinia, Italy), a karst resurgence located only twenty metres from the Cedrino river and one of the main water supplies to this river. The freshwater of this karst spring feeds the Preda 'e Othoni dam, located a few kilometres downstream of the resurgence, and originally built to regulate the flooding of Cedrino river but currently used for all sorts of purposes, as electricity supply, irrigation of farmlands, industrial uses and especially for drinking water, an important source that has to be quantified and preserved. With the purpose of evaluating the contribution of this karst spring to the river discharge, at the beginning of the hydrological year 2013-14, Su Gologone has been equipped with a multi-parametric probe for in-continuous monitoring, at regular intervals, of the values of pressure (and therefore the level of water), electrical conductivity and water temperature. During the entire monitoring period flow rate measurements have been performed three

  15. Intermittent spring flooding of agricultural fields will increase net global-warming potential of greenhouse gas fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, R. F.; Smyth, E. M.; Smith, C. M.; Kantola, I. B.; Krichels, A.; Yang, W. H.; DeLucia, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Corn Belt is currently a net source of carbon dioxide and nitrous dioxide to the atmosphere but is also a weak sink for methane. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and duration of spring precipitation in the North American Midwest, resulting in intermittent flooding and ponding in agricultural fields. Inundation changes the greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes of the soil, especially by promoting methanogenesis under anoxic conditions. DNA and 16S cDNA sequencing results of earlier, similar experiments confirmed the presence of methanogens in soil samples, albeit in low abundance (representing <0.01% of reads per sample). We installed collars into bare ground of a central Illinois research field to experiment with flooding conditions and observe changes in gas fluxes, microbial community, and soil chemistry. We established three treatments of five replicates—control, continuously flooded, and intermittently flooded—each with separate collars for gas flux measurements, soil sample collection, and soil probe measurements. A drip irrigation system flooded the headspaces of the collars to produce flooding events. The continuously flooded collars were maintained in a flooded condition for the duration of the experiment, and the intermittently flooded collars were flooded for 72 hours per flooding event and then kept dry for at least 5 days before the next flooding event. We measured net concentrations of N2O, CH4, and CO2 in situ using a static chamber connected to a cavity ringdown spectrometer. We found that the periodicity of wetting and drying events induces hysteresis effects that push GHG shifts to occur rapidly (< 1 hr). Integrating fluxes across the period of the experiment, the intermittently flooded collars showed 88.7% higher global-warming potential of GHG fluxes at the 100-year horizon versus control, with most of change driven by increased net CO2 flux (87.1% higher) and net methane flux (29 times higher). These data indicate that

  16. Developing an Approach to Prioritize River Restoration using Data Extracted from Flood Risk Information System Databases.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimal, S.; Tarboton, D. G.; Band, L. E.; Duncan, J. M.; Lovette, J. P.; Corzo, G.; Miles, B.

    2015-12-01

    Prioritizing river restoration requires information on river geometry. In many states in the US detailed river geometry has been collected for floodplain mapping and is available in Flood Risk Information Systems (FRIS). In particular, North Carolina has, for its 100 Counties, developed a database of numerous HEC-RAS models which are available through its Flood Risk Information System (FRIS). These models that include over 260 variables were developed and updated by numerous contractors. They contain detailed surveyed or LiDAR derived cross-sections and modeled flood extents for different extreme event return periods. In this work, over 4700 HEC-RAS models' data was integrated and upscaled to utilize detailed cross-section information and 100-year modelled flood extent information to enable river restoration prioritization for the entire state of North Carolina. We developed procedures to extract geomorphic properties such as entrenchment ratio, incision ratio, etc. from these models. Entrenchment ratio quantifies the vertical containment of rivers and thereby their vulnerability to flooding and incision ratio quantifies the depth per unit width. A map of entrenchment ratio for the whole state was derived by linking these model results to a geodatabase. A ranking of highly entrenched counties enabling prioritization for flood allowance and mitigation was obtained. The results were shared through HydroShare and web maps developed for their visualization using Google Maps Engine API.

  17. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

    2016-04-01

    River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood

  18. Nogales flood detention study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norman, Laura M.; Levick, Lainie; Guertin, D. Phillip; Callegary, James; Guadarrama, Jesus Quintanar; Anaya, Claudia Zulema Gil; Prichard, Andrea; Gray, Floyd; Castellanos, Edgar; Tepezano, Edgar; Huth, Hans; Vandervoet, Prescott; Rodriguez, Saul; Nunez, Jose; Atwood, Donald; Granillo, Gilberto Patricio Olivero; Ceballos, Francisco Octavio Gastellum

    2010-01-01

    Flooding in Ambos Nogales often exceeds the capacity of the channel and adjacent land areas, endangering many people. The Nogales Wash is being studied to prevent future flood disasters and detention features are being installed in tributaries of the wash. This paper describes the application of the KINEROS2 model and efforts to understand the capacity of these detention features under various flood and urbanization scenarios. Results depict a reduction in peak flow for the 10-year, 1-hour event based on current land use in tributaries with detention features. However, model results also demonstrate that larger storm events and increasing urbanization will put a strain on the features and limit their effectiveness.

  19. Climatic and Hydrological Changes of Past 100 Years in Asian Arid Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Zhaodong; Salnikov, Vitaliy; Xu, Changchun

    2014-05-01

    The Asian Arid Zone (AAZ) is here defined to include the following regions: northwestern China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Generally speaking, the AAZ has experienced a temperature rising during the past 100 years that was significantly faster than the global average (0.14 ºC per decade). Specifically, the rate was 0.39 ºC per decade in northwestern China (1950-2010), 0.26 ºC per decade in Kazakhstan (1936-2005), 0.22 ºC per decade in Mongolia (1940-2010), 0.29 ºC per decade in Uzbekistan (1950-2005), 0.18 ºC per decade in Turkmenistan (1961-1995). It should be noted that the mountainous parts of AAZ seems to have experienced a slower rate of temperature rising. For example, the rate was 0.10 ºC per decade in Tajikistan (1940-2005) and was 0.08 ºC per decade in Kyrgyzstan (1890-2005). Precipitation has a slight increasing trend in northwestern China, but it has fluctuated along a near-constant line in the rest of the AAZ. Hydrological data from high-elevation basin show that the runoff has been increasing primarily as a result of rising temperature that caused increases in ice melting. A natural decreasing trend of surface runoff in low-elevation basins is undeniable and the decreasing trend is attributable to intensified evaporation under warming conditions. It is true that the total amount of runoff in the Tianshan Mountains and the associated basins has been increased primarily as a result of temperature rising-resulted increases in ice melting. But, approaching to the turning point of glacier-melting supplies to runoff will pose a great threat to socio-economic sustainability and to ecological security. The turning point refers to the transition from increasing runoff to decreasing runoff within ice melting supplied watersheds under a warming climate.

  20. Infrared survey of 50 buildings constructed during 100 years: thermal performances and damage conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ljungberg, Sven-Ake

    1995-03-01

    Different building constructions and craftsmanship give rise to different thermal performance and damage conditions. The building stock of most industrial countries consists of buildings of various age, and constructions, from old historic buildings with heavy stone or wooden construction, to new buildings with heavy or light concrete construction, or modern steel or wooden construction. In this paper the result from a detailed infrared survey of 50 buildings from six Swedish military camps is presented. The presentation is limited to a comparison of thermal performance and damage conditions of buildings of various ages, functions, and constructions, of a building period of more than 100 years. The result is expected to be relevant even to civilian buildings. Infrared surveys were performed during 1992-1993, with airborne, and mobile short- and longwave infrared systems, out- and indoor thermography. Interpretation and analysis of infrared data was performed with interactive image and analyzing systems. Field inspections were carried out with fiber optics system, and by ocular inspections. Air-exchange rate was measured in order to quantify air leakages through the building envelope, indicated in thermograms. The objects studied were single-family houses, barracks, office-, service-, school- and exercise buildings, military hotels and restaurants, aircraft hangars, and ship factory buildings. The main conclusions from this study are that most buildings from 1880 - 1940 have a solid construction with a high quality of craftsmanship, relatively good thermal performance, due to extremely thick walls, and adding insulation at the attic floor. From about 1940 - 1960 the quality of construction, thermal performance and craftsmanship seem to vary a lot. Buildings constructed during the period of 1960 - 1990 have in general the best thermal performance due to a better insulation capacity, however, also one finds here the greatest variety of problems. The result from this

  1. The Hunterian Neurosurgical Laboratory: the first 100 years of neurosurgical research.

    PubMed

    Sampath, P; Long, D M; Brem, H

    2000-01-01

    Modern neurosurgery has long had a strong laboratory foundation, and much of this tradition can be traced to the Hunterian Neurosurgical Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins Hospital. Founded with the basic goals of investigating the causes and symptoms of disease and establishing the crucial role that surgeons may play in the treatment of disease, the Hunterian laboratory has adhered to these tenets, despite the dramatic changes in neurosurgery that have occurred in the last 100 years. Named for the famous English surgeon John Hunter (1728-1793), the Hunterian laboratory was conceived by William Welch and William Halsted as a special laboratory for experimental work in surgery and pathology. In 1904, Harvey Cushing was appointed by Halsted to direct the laboratory. With the three primary goals of student education, veterinary surgery that stressed surgical techniques, and meticulous surgical and laboratory record-keeping, the laboratory was quite productive, introducing the use of physiological saline solutions, describing the anatomic features and function of the pituitary gland, and establishing the field of endocrinology. In addition, the original development of hanging drop tissue culture, fundamental investigations into cerebrospinal fluid, and countless contributions to otolaryngology by Samuel Crowe all occurred during this "crucible" period. In 1912, Cushing was succeeded by Walter Dandy, whose work on experimental hydrocephalus and cerebrospinal fluid circulation led to the development of pneumoencephalography. The early days of neurosurgery evolved with close ties to general surgery, and so did the Hunterian laboratory. After Dandy began devoting his time to clinical work, general surgeons (first Jay McLean and then, in 1922, Ferdinand Lee) became the directors of the laboratory. Between 1928 and 1942, more than 150 original articles were issued from the Hunterian laboratory; these articles described significant advances in surgery, including pioneering

  2. Popular myths about flooding in Western Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Joseph L.

    2011-01-01

    Floods are the most destructive natural hazard in the Nation, causing more deaths and financial loss in the 20th century than any other natural disaster. The most significant 20 riverine floods of the 20th century for which data are available have killed more than 1,843 people and caused more than $50 billion (uninflated) in damages (Perry, 2000). One of the most common means of describing the severity of a flood is a comparison to the "100-year flood." In the last decade, increasing attention has been paid to the fact that some regions, notably the Pacific Northwest, have experienced numerous so-called "100-year" floods in the span of a few years. Part of the confusion stems from the statistical nature of the "100-year flood" (Greene, 1996); however, another part of the confusion is the fact that the statistics are calculated for specific sites (streamgages) on specific rivers, rather than for a region as a whole. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey have begun to investigate how the likelihood of flooding may be determined on a regional basis (Troutman and Karlinger, 2003).

  3. Influence of a flood event on salinity and nutrients in the Changshan Archipelago area (Northern Yellow Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Guangtao; Zhao, Zengxia; Liu, Changhua; Liu, Qun; Ren, Jianming

    2012-09-01

    River discharge can deliver nutrients to the coastal zone and change the hydrologic properties of the water column. Soon after a flash flood from the Yalu River (Northeast China) in August 2010, we investigated the salinity and nutrient concentrations, as well as other environmental conditions in the Changshan Archipelago area, located approximately 100 km west of the river mouth in the northern Yellow Sea. Diluted water was mainly observed in the upper layers shallower than 15 m, with surface salinity between 18.13 and 30.44 in the eastern study area and between 28.16 and 29.72 in the western area. Surface salinity showed a significant negative correlation with concentrations of dissolved nutrients ( P < 0.05), but not with that of Chlorophyll- a (Chl- a), dissolved oxygen (DO), particulate materials or pH. The average concentrations of nitrite, nitrate, and silicic acid decreased from the surface layer to bottom layer and were significantly higher in the east area than in the west area ( P < 0.05). In contrast, average ammonium and phosphate concentrations were highest in the bottom layer of both areas, with no significant spatial differences. DO varied between 6.06 and 8.25 mg L-1 in the surface layer, and was significantly higher in the eastern area than in the western area in the surface and middle layers. Chl- a concentration was constantly below 4.09 μg L-1. Our work demonstrated the strong influences of Yalu River on proportions of various nutrient components in the Changshan Archipelago area. Silicic acid and total inorganic nitrogen levels were significantly elevated comparing to phosphate in the eastern area. Such changes can potentially induce phosphate limit to phytoplankton growth.

  4. Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serra-Llobet, A.

    2014-12-01

    Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land

  5. Intense drought and flooding events in the Rio Negro and relation with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic variability modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreoli, Rita Valéria; da Silva, Simone Nazaré Rodriguez; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira; Kayano, Mary Toshie; Garcia, Sâmia Regina; Capistrano, Vinícius Buscioli; Armijos, Elisa

    2016-04-01

    The relationship of the hydrological variability of the Rio Negro in Manaus and the dominant large-scale climate variability patterns for the 1902-2007 period is investigated using the quantile method and composite analyses. Variations of the Rio Negro Level (RNL) during its 3-month high (May to July—MJJ) and low (October to December—OND) phases are examined separately. The El Niño (La Niña) related maximum warming (cooling) in the central tropical Pacific during its mature and decaying stages modulates the atmospheric circulation in the tropics and displaces the Walker circulation cell eastward (westward), so that its sinking (rising) branch occurs over western Amazon and causes negative (positive) precipitation anomalies in this region. These anomalous climate conditions occur before the Rio Negro high phase (MJJ) and contribute to reduce (increase) the RNL and lead to a very low (very high) event in the river. On the other hand, the SST variability modes in the tropical Atlantic mainly during the transition from wet to dry season modulate the precipitation variations over western Amazon in OND. The very high events are more frequent after the 1960's decade and the very low events, before the 1930's decade. Therefore, the occurrence of these events contains a multidecadal scale variability. The results also indicate that the variations in the rainfall in western Amazon occur up to 9 months in advance and modulate the RNL in Manaus. The results presented here might be useful for monitoring purposes of the RNL.

  6. Characterizing Past and Future Flood Regimes of California's Cosumnes River: A Hydroinformatic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whipple, A. A.; Condon, L. E.; Viers, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    As the only major undammed river on the west slope of California's Sierra Nevada, with over 100 years of USGS streamflow data, and the location of several floodplain conservation and restoration efforts, the Cosumnes River offers a unique opportunity to study connections between a river's flow regime and floodplain functions. Flow regime, including frequency and magnitude of floods, and its interaction with the surrounding landscape are primary drivers of floodplain structure and ecosystem dynamics. However, these floodplain processes and functions are often altered by water management schemes, land uses, and hydroclimatic alteration induced by climate warming. Improved understanding of ecologically relevant aspects of flow regime and potential future alteration is central to managing floodplain ecosystems and their services. In order to describe the inundation regime of the lower Cosumnes River floodplain, California, this research moves beyond flood frequency analysis to examine other flood event characteristics and identify flood types using statistical cluster analysis. Floods are characterized using metrics of ecological relevance, such as magnitude, timing, duration, and total volume. To explore potential effects of climate change, non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value models are fit to historical floods based on temperature and precipitation at the monthly scale. Temperature and precipitation variables from downscaled Global Climate Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 are then applied to develop flood distributions for climate change scenarios. These results are used to adjust the magnitude of clustered flood events identified in the historical record, and the sensitivity of the inundation regime to these changes is assessed. This research provides useful scientific insights for management and restoration efforts within the Cosumnes watershed and demonstrates the utility of applying these methods to other floodplain systems.

  7. Why Teach a 100-Year-Old Strike?: The "Bread and Roses" Centenary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diamond, Norm

    2012-01-01

    Today's movement in support of the 99 percent is a reminder that throughout U.S. history, a major engine of change has been grass-roots organizing and solidarity. Major history textbooks, however, downplay the role of ordinary people in shaping events--especially those who formed labor unions and used the strike to assert their rights. One of the…

  8. The flood of December 1982 and the 100- and 500-year flood on the Buffalo River, Arkansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Neely, B.L.

    1985-01-01

    Flood profiles, peak discharges, and stages were determined for the December 1982, the 100-year, and the 500-year floods at 17 sites along the Buffalo River, Arkansas. Typical synthetic stage hydrographs for the 100- and 500-year floods were determined for each site. Flow duration data for gaging stations at St. Joe and Rush are shown. The average velocity of the water for the 100- and 500-year floods is shown for each site. Approximate flood boundaries delineating the 100- and 500-year floods are shown for Ponca, Steel Creek, Pruitt, St. Joe, and Buffalo Point. (Author 's abstract)

  9. Geochemical Characteristics of Overbank Deposits after a Flood Event in a Small, Mountainous River System in the Oregon Coast Range, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerrero, F. J.; Hatten, J. A.; Goni, M. A.; Gray, A. B.; Pasternack, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    The geochemical characteristics of particulate organic matter (POM) transported by rivers has broad implications in our understanding of aquatic nutrient dynamics, the fate of contaminants, environmental change in watersheds, and carbon export to depositional environments. The major fraction of this POM is mobilized during storms, especially in small mountainous river systems (SMRS) producing complex spatial-temporal POM patterns poorly documented due to logistical difficulties. In this study, we examine the use of overbank flood deposits as a surrogate of a quasi-Lagrangian POM sampling scheme to supplement the conventional Eulerian sampling scheme for POM. We report on the geochemical characteristics of 11 overbank deposits created after a significant flood (10 X mean discharge) along 80 km in the Alsea River, a SMRS in the Oregon Coast Range. We measure organic carbon, nitrogen, stable isotopes, and biomarkers such as lignin-derived phenols as well as particle size distribution and surface area of the deposited sediments. We compared those characteristics with the POM sampled during several storms at a fixed location. Our results suggest that despite the differences in local depositional conditions inferred from particle size distributions and texture, the geochemical properties of overbank deposits resemble the properties of the material in transport, mainly derived from a terrestrial source with a clear signal of gymnosperm wood. Furthermore, the normalized ranges of the geochemical indicators measured across space for one single event are comparable to, or even higher than, the normalized range of the same indicators measured along time at the fixed location. The implications of the amount and quality of the additional information offered by the overbank deposits in POM dynamics in watershed is discussed.

  10. Climatic variability and flood frequency of the Santa Cruz River, Pima County, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Webb, Robert H.; Betancourt, Julio L.

    1992-01-01

    Past estimates of the 100-year flood for the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, range from 572 to 2,780 cubic meters per second. An apparent increase in flood magnitude during the past two decades raises concern that the annual flood series is nonstationary in time. The apparent increase is accompanied by more annual floods occurring in fall and winter and fewer in summer. This greater mixture of storm types that produce annual flood peaks is caused by a higher frequency of meridional flow in the upper-air circulation and increased variance of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Estimation of flood frequency on the Santa Cruz River is complicated because climate affects the magnitude and frequency of storms that cause floods. Mean discharge does not change significantly, but the variance and skew coefficient of the distribution of annual floods change with time. The 100-year flood during El Niffo-Southern Oscillation conditions is 1,300 cubic meters per second, more than double the value for other years. The increase is mostly caused by an increase in recurvature of dissipating tropical cyclones into the Southwestern United States during El Niffo-Southern Oscillation conditions. Flood frequency based on hydroclimatology was determined by combining populations of floods caused by monsoonal storms, frontal systems, and dissipating tropical cyclones. For 1930-59, annual flood frequency is dominated by monsoonal floods, and the estimated 100-year flood is 323 cubic meters per second. For 1960-86, annual flood frequency at recurrence intervals of greater than 10 years is dominated by floods caused by dissipating tropical cyclones, and the estimated 100-year flood is 1,660 cubic meters per second. For design purposes, 1,660 cubic meters per second might be an appropriate value for the 100-year flood at Tucson, assuming that climatic conditions during 1960-86 are representative of conditions expected in the immediate future.

  11. Safety in the Chemical Laboratory: Flood Control.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pollard, Bruce D.

    1983-01-01

    Describes events leading to a flood in the Wehr Chemistry Laboratory at Marquette University, discussing steps taken to minimize damage upon discovery. Analyzes the problem of flooding in the chemical laboratory and outlines seven steps of flood control: prevention; minimization; early detection; stopping the flood; evaluation; clean-up; and…

  12. Contribution of rainfall, snow and ice melt to the hydrological regime of the Arve upper catchment and to severe flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lecourt, Grégoire; Revuelto, Jesús; Morin, Samuel; Zin, Isabella; Lafaysse, Matthieu; Condom, Thomas; Six, Delphine; Vionnet, Vincent; Charrois, Luc; Dumont, Marie; Gottardi, Frédéric; Laarman, Olivier; Coulaud, Catherine; Esteves, Michel; Lebel, Thierry; Vincent, Christian

    2016-04-01

    In Alpine catchments, the hydrological response to meteorological events is highly influenced by the precipitation phase (liquid or solid) and by snow and ice melt. It is thus necessary to simulate accurately the snowpack evolution and its spatial distribution to perform relevant hydrological simulations. This work is focused on the upper Arve Valley (Western Alps). This 205 km2 catchment has large glaciated areas (roughly 32% of the study area) and covers a large range of elevations (1000-4500 m a.s.l.). Snow presence is significant year-round. The area is also characterized by steep terrain and strong vegetation heterogeneity. Modelling hydrological processes in such a complex catchment is therefore challenging. The detailed ISBA land surface model (including the Crocus snowpack scheme) has been applied to the study area using a topography based discretization (classifying terrain by aspect, elevation, slope and presence of glacier). The meteorological forcing used to run the simulations is the reanalysis issued from the SAFRAN model which assimilates meteorological observations from the Meteo-France networks. Conceptual reservoirs with calibrated values of emptying parameters are used to represent the underground water storage. This approach has been tested to simulate the discharge on the Arve catchment and three sub-catchments over 1990-2015. The simulations were evaluated with respect to observed water discharges for several headwaters with varying glaciated areas. They allow to quantify the relative contribution of rainfall, snow and ice melt to the hydrological regime of the basin. Additionally, we present a detailed analysis of several particular flood events. For these events, the ability of the model to correctly represent the catchment behaviour is investigated, looking particularly to the relevance of the simulated snowpack. Particularly, its spatial distribution is evaluated using MODIS snow cover maps, punctual snowpack observations and summer

  13. Rhizosphere dynamics of two riparian plant species from the water fluctuation zone of Three Gorges Reservoir, P.R. China - pH, oxygen and LMWOA monitoring during short flooding events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schreiber, Christina M.; Schurr, Ulrich; Zeng, Bo; Höltkemeier, Agnes; Kuhn, Arnd J.

    2010-05-01

    Since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam at the Yangtze River in China, the reservoir management created a new 30m water fluctuation zone 45-75m above the original water level. Only species well adapted to long-time flooding (up to several months) will be able to vegetate the river banks and replace the original vegetation. To investigate how common species of the riverbanks cope with submergence, Alternanthera philoxeroides Mart. and Arundinella anomala Steud., two flooding resistant riparian species, have been examined in a rhizotron environment. Short-time (2 days waterlogging, 2 days flooding, 2 days recovery) flooding cycles in the original substrate and long time (14 days waterlogging, flooding, recovery) flooding cycles, in original substrate and sterile glass bead substrate, have been simulated in floodable two-way access rhizotrons. Oxygen- and pH-sensitive foils (planar optodes, PreSens) automatically monitored root reaction in a confined space (2cm2 each) on the backside of the rhizotron, while soil solution samples were taken 2 times a day from the other side of the rhizotron at the corresponding area through filter and steel capillaries. The samples were analyzed by capillary electrophoresis for low molecular weight organic acids (LMWOA, i.e. oxalic, formic, succinic, malic, acetic, glyoxylic, lactic and citric acid). Results show diurnal rhythms of rhizospheric acidification for both species in high resolution, combined with oxygen entry into the root surrounding during waterlogged state. Flooding caused stronger acidification in the rhizosphere, that were however not accompanied by increased occurrence of LMWOA except for acetic and glyoxylic acid. First results from longer flooding periods show stable diurnal rhythms during waterlogging, but no strongly increased activity during the flooding event. Performance of the two species is not hampered by being waterlogged, and they follow a silencing strategy during a longer phase of anoxia without

  14. Spatial-Temporal dynamics of surface water flooding and consequences for emergency services accessibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattison, Ian; Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Bosher, Lee; Wilby, Rob; Yang, Lili; Ryley, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Urban areas are increasingly susceptible to surface water flooding, with more intense precipitation and intensification of land development. Flooding has both direct impacts i.e. locations inundated with water, and indirect impacts i.e. transport networks, utility e.g. electricity/water services etc. The direct areas flooded evolve in space through the event, and are predicted by standard inundation models. However, the wider indirect impacts and the spatial-temporal patterns are less constrained and it is these that are needed to manage the impacts in real-time. This paper focusses on the Category One responders of the Fire and Rescue and Ambulance Services in the City of Leicester, East Midlands, UK. Leicester is ranked 16th out of 4215 settlements at risk of surface water flooding in the UK based upon the population at risk (15,200 people) (DEFRA, 2009). The analysis undertaken involved overlaying the flood extent with the Integrated Transport Network (ITN) data within a GIS framework. Then a simple transport routing algorithm was used to predict the travel time from specific nodes representing ambulance or fire stations to different parts of the city. Flood magnitudes with 1:20, 1:100 and 1:1000 return periods have been investigated. Under a scenario of no flooding, 100% of the city is accessible by the six fire stations in the city. However, in the 1 in 20 year surface water flood event the peak inundation results in 66.5% being accessible in the 10 minute permitted time and 6% is totally inaccessible. This falls to 40% and 13% respectively for the 1 in 100 year event. Maps show the area of the city that are accessible by two or more stations within the permitted response time, which shows these areas are the most resilient to surface water flooding. However, it isn't just the peak water depths at every location which impacts accessibility within the city but the spatial-temporal patterns of the inundation. The areas within the 10 minute response time expand

  15. More than 100 Years of Background-Level Sedimentary Metals, Nisqually River Delta, South Puget Sound, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Takesue, Renee K.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2011-01-01

    The Nisqually River Delta is located about 25 km south of the Tacoma Narrows in the southern reach of Puget Sound. Delta evolution is controlled by sedimentation from the Nisqually River and erosion by strong tidal currents that may reach 0.95 m/s in the Nisqually Reach. The Nisqually River flows 116 km from the Cascade Range, including the slopes of Mount Rainier, through glacially carved valleys to Puget Sound. Extensive tidal flats on the delta consist of late-Holocene silty and sandy strata from normal river streamflow and seasonal floods and possibly from distal sediment-rich debris flows associated with volcanic and seismic events. In the early 1900s, dikes and levees were constructed around Nisqually Delta salt marshes, and the reclaimed land was used for agriculture and pasture. In 1974, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established the Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge on the reclaimed land to protect migratory birds; its creation has prevented further human alteration of the Delta and estuary. In October 2009, original dikes and levees were removed to restore tidal exchange to almost 3 km2 of man-made freshwater marsh on the Nisqually Delta.

  16. Flood Inundation Analysis Considering Mega Floods in PyeonChang River Basin of South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, D.; Han, D.; Choi, C.; Lee, J.; Kim, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, abnormal climate has frequently occurred around the world due to global warming. In South Korea, more than 90% of damage due to natural disasters has been caused by extreme events like strong wind and heavy rainfall. Most studies regarding the impact of extreme events on flood damage have focused on a single heavy rainfall event. But several heavy rainfall events can be occurred continuously and these events will affect occurring huge flood damage. This study explores the impact of the continuous extreme events on the flood damage. Here we call Mega flood for this type of flood which is caused by the continuous extreme events. Inter Event Time Definition (IETD) method is applied for making Mega flood scenarios depending on independent rainfall event scenarios. Flood inundations are estimated in each situation of the Mega flood scenarios and the flood damages are estimated using a Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA) method. As a result, we expect that flood damage caused by Mega flood leads to much greater than damage driven by single rainfall event. The results of this study can be contributed for making a guideline and design criteria in order to reduce flood damage.This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) and grant funded by the Korean government (MEST; No. 2011-0028564).

  17. Toward a space-time scale framework for the study of everyday life activity's adaptation to hazardous hydro-meteorological conditions: Learning from the June 15th, 2010 flash flood event in Draguignan (France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruin, Isabelle; Boudevillain, Brice; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Lutoff, Céline

    2013-04-01

    Western Mediterranean regions are favorable locations for heavy precipitating events. In recent years, many of them resulted in destructive flash floods with extended damage and loss of life: Nîmes 1988, Vaison-la-Romaine 1992, Aude 1999 and Gard 2002 and 2005. Because of the suddenness in the rise of water levels and the limited forecasting predictability, flash floods often surprise people in the midst of their daily activity and force them to react in a very limited amount of time. In such fast evolving events impacts depend not just on such compositional variables as the magnitude of the flood event and the vulnerability of those affected, but also on such contextual factors as its location and timing (night, rush hours, working hours...). Those contextual factors can alter the scale and social distribution of impacts and vulnerability to them. In the case of flooding fatalities, for instance, the elderly are often said to be the most vulnerable, but when fatalities are mapped against basin size and response time, it has been shown that in fact it is young adults who are most likely to be killed in flash flooding of small catchments, whereas the elderly are the most frequent victim of large scale fluvial flooding. Further investigations in the Gard region have shown that such tendency could be explained by a difference of attitude across ages with respect to mobility related to daily life routine and constraints. According to a survey of intentional behavior professionals appear to be less prone to adapting their daily activities and mobility to rapidly changing environmental conditions than non-professionals. Nevertheless, even if this appears as a tendency in both the analysis of limited data on death circumstances and intended behavior surveys, behavioral verification is very much needed. Understanding how many and why people decide to travel in hazardous weather conditions and how they adapt (or not) their activities and schedule in response to

  18. When and how long to flood for insect control

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Flooding in late spring (late May or early July) can remove tremendous numbers of arthropods from cranberry beds. For over 100 years, the Wisconsin cranberry industry has used flooding as a way to suppress arthropod populations. One critical element of this strategy is the trade-off between lethalit...

  19. The story of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory -- A remarkable first 100 years of tracking eruptions and earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Babb, Janet L.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.

    2011-01-01

    The year 2012 marks the centennial of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the support and cooperation of visionaries, financiers, scientists, and other individuals and organizations, HVO has successfully achieved 100 years of continuous monitoring of Hawaiian volcanoes. As we celebrate this milestone anniversary, we express our sincere mahalo—thanks—to the people who have contributed to and participated in HVO’s mission during this past century. First and foremost, we owe a debt of gratitude to the late Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., the geologist whose vision and efforts led to the founding of HVO. We also acknowledge the pioneering contributions of the late Frank A. Perret, who began the continuous monitoring of Kīlauea in 1911, setting the stage for Jaggar, who took over the work in 1912. Initial support for HVO was provided by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Carnegie Geophysical Laboratory, which financed the initial cache of volcano monitoring instruments and Perret’s work in 1911. The Hawaiian Volcano Research Association, a group of Honolulu businessmen organized by Lorrin A. Thurston, also provided essential funding for HVO’s daily operations starting in mid-1912 and continuing for several decades. Since HVO’s beginning, the University of Hawaiʻi (UH), called the College of Hawaii until 1920, has been an advocate of HVO’s scientific studies. We have benefited from collaborations with UH scientists at both the Hilo and Mänoa campuses and look forward to future cooperative efforts to better understand how Hawaiian volcanoes work. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated HVO continuously since 1947. Before then, HVO was under the administration of various Federal agencies—the U.S. Weather Bureau, at the time part of the Department of Agriculture, from 1919 to 1924; the USGS, which first managed HVO from 1924 to 1935; and the National Park Service from 1935 to 1947. For 76 of its first 100 years, HVO has been

  20. How Earth works 100 years after Wegener's continental drift theory and IGCP 648

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Z. X.; Evans, D. A.; Zhong, S.; Eglington, B. M.

    2015-12-01

    It took half a century for Wegener's continental drift theory to be accepted as a fundamental element of the plate tectonic theory. Another half a century on, we are still unsure of the driving mechanism for plate tectonics: is it dominated by thermal convection, gravitational forces, or by a combination of mechanisms? Nonetheless, breakthroughs in the past decades put us in a position to make a major stride in answering this question. These include: (1) widely accepted cyclic occurrences of supercontinent assembly and break-up (whereas random occurrence of supercontinents was an equal possibility in the 1990s); (2) the discovery of two equatorial and antipodal large low seismic velocity provinces (LLSVPs) that dominate the lower mantle and appear to have been the base for almost all mantle plumes since at the Mesozoic, and of subduction of oceanic slabs all the way to the core-mantle boundary, which together suggesting whole-mantle convection; (3) the recognition of true polar wander (TPW) as an important process in Earth history, likely reflecting Earth's major internal mass redistribution events; and (4) rapidly enhancing computer modelling power enabling us to simulate all aspect of Earth's dynamic inner working. Many new yet often controversial ideas have been proposed, such a possible coupling in time (with an offset) and space between supercontinent cycle and superplume (LLSVP) events which oppose to the idea of static and long-lived LLSVPs, and the orthoversion v.s. introversion or extroversion models for supercontinent transition. To fully utilise these advances as well as the rapidly expanding global geoscience databases to address the question of how Earth works, an UNESCO-IUGS sponsored IGCP project No. 648 was formed to coordinate a global cross-disciplinary effort. We aim to achieve a better understanding of the supercontinent cycle, and examine the relationship between supercontinent cycle and global plume events. We will establish a series of global

  1. A Lower Rhine flood chronology based on the sedimentary record of an abandoned channel fill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toonen, W. H. J.; Winkels, T. G.; Prins, M. A.; de Groot, L. V.; Bunnik, F. P. M.; Cohen, K. M.

    2012-04-01

    The Bienener Altrhein is an abandoned channel of the Lower Rhine (Germany). Following a late 16th century abandonment event, the channel was disconnected from the main stream and the oxbow lake gradually filled with 8 meters of flood deposits. This process still continues today. During annual floods, a limited proportion of overbank discharge is routed across the oxbow lake. Large floods produce individual flood layers, which are visually recognized in the sedimentary sequence. Based on the sedimentary characteristics of these event layers, we created a ~450-year flood chronology for the Lower Rhine. Laser-diffraction grain size measurements were used to assess relative flood magnitudes for individual flood event layers. Continuous sampling at a ~2 cm interval provided a high-resolution record, resolving the record at an annual scale. Standard descriptive techniques (e.g., mean grain size, 95th percentile, % sand) and the more advanced 'end member modelling' were applied to zoom in on the coarse particle bins in the grain size distributions, which are indicative of higher flow velocities. The most recent part of the record was equated to modern discharge measurements. This allows to establish relations between deposited grain size characteristics in the abandoned channel and flood magnitudes in the main river. This relation can also be applied on flood event layers from previous centuries, for which only water level measurements and historical descriptions exist. This makes this method relevant to expand data series used in flood frequency analysis from 100 years to more than 400 years. To date event-layers in the rapidly accumulated sequence, we created an age-depth model that uses organic content variations to tune sedimentation rates between the known basal and top ages. No suitable identifiable organic material for radiocarbon dating was found in the cores. Instead, palynological results (introduction of agricultural species) and palaeomagnetic secular

  2. Classification of rain types using drop size distributions and polarimetric radar: Case study of a 2014 flooding event in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    You, C.-H.; Lee, D.-I.; Kang, M.-Y.; Kim, H.-J.

    2016-11-01

    To classify precipitation types as either convective or stratiform, drop size distributions (DSDs) measured by the Parsivel (PARticle size VELocity) instrument, and DSD parameters including median volume diameter (D0) and normalized number concentration (Nw) retrieved by S-band polarimetric radar (BSL), were analyzed for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in southern Korea on 25 August 2014. The rainfall system was clearly identified as stratiform or convective rain at various times of day, at measurement sites at Changwon and Busan. New rainfall classification lines were derived from the Parsivel and BSL data, and were compared with existing classification methods based on climatological rainfall data. The classification methods using logNw-D0, logN0-rainrate, and slope-rainrate domain proposed in previous two studies performed well when applied to the new data if the slope and/or intercept values were changed. Another method using logN0-slope domain was not possible to classify the precipitation types well in the study area, as the best-fit line could not be obtained. The average measured D0 and Nw values obtained from polarimetric radar were compared with climatological precipitation data, measured in both the tropics and mid-latitudes. And new separation line was obtained for the rainfall at the southern part of Korea.

  3. Climatic and hydrologic aspects of the 2008 Midwest floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budikova, D.; Coleman, J.; Strope, S. A.

    2010-12-01

    Between May and June 2008 the Midwest region of the United States (U.S.) experienced record flooding. The event was produced by distinct hydroclimatic conditions that included saturated antecedent soil moisture conditions and atmospheric circulation that guided moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the area between late May and mid-June. The latter included a well-developed trough over the central/west U.S., a strong Great Plains Low Level Jet (GPLLJ), and unseasonably strong westerlies that promoted upper level divergence in regions of positive vorticity advection. The flooding coincided with a strongly negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation linked to the strength of the GPLLJ. The atmospheric flow contributed to flooding within three river basins across nine states. Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and central Indiana located within the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) and the Wabash River Basin were most impacted and also recorded the greatest anomalies in rainfall. Record rainfall, persistent multi-day precipitation events, high frequency of localized high-intensity rainfall events all contributed to the severity of the flooding. Conditions peaked between May 21 and June 13 when rain fell somewhere within the region each day. River discharge rates reached record levels in June at many locations; return periods throughout Iowa, southern Wisconsin and in central Indiana were estimated to exceed 100 years, and often times 200 years. Record river stage levels were observed during this time in similar areas. Conditions began to recover into July and August. The timing of occurrence of the precipitation and hydrological anomalies towards late spring and into early summer in the Midwest was rather unusual. The 2008 flood event occurred 15 years after the infamous 1993 event. The importance of its occurrence is underscored by the observed increasing trends in extreme and flood-related precipitation characteristics during the 20th century and the anticipated

  4. Integrated watershed modeling for simulation of radio-cesium migration after flood events in the catchment near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakuma, K.; Kurikami, H.; Malins, A.; Yamada, S.; Funaki, H.; Niizato, T.; Machida, M.; Kitamura, A.

    2015-12-01

    The environments of Fukushima near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant have been contaminated by the explosion accident of the plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011. The contamination level and air-dose rate behavior at present and in future are significant concern for the people used to live nearby. Most dominant radioactive material is 137Cs at present and its migration is considered to be driven by soil erosion and subsequent transport. To estimate the amount of soil sedimentation and the 137Cs migration, a three-dimensional hydrological model of the catchment was developed focused on the Ogi-no-sawa catchment, located 15 km southwest of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. Base on the developed hydrological model, top soil transport and resulting radio-cesium movement was simulated. For the modeling and simulation, physics based code the General-purpose terrestrial fluid-flow simulator GETFLOWS model, which is one of the tools for watershed modeling, was applied. The simulation results were compared with monitored data of the amount of water discharge and concentration of suspended solids for model testing. As a result of the study, the soil and 137Cs redistribution patterns at various scales of flood events could be predicted based on the results of modeling and simulation.

  5. Development of a Flood-Warning System and Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Blanchard River in Findlay, Ohio

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitehead, Matthew T.; Ostheimer, Chad J.

    2009-01-01

    Digital flood-inundation maps of the Blanchard River in Findlay, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Findlay, Ohio. The maps, which correspond to water levels at the USGS streamgage at Findlay (04189000), were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. The USGS reestablished one streamgage and added another on the Blanchard River upstream of Findlay. Additionally, the USGS established one streamgage each on Eagle and Lye Creeks, tributaries to the Blanchard River. The stream-gage sites were equipped with rain gages and multiple forms of telemetry. Data from these gages can be used by emergency management personnel to determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles computed by means of a step-backwater model were prepared and calibrated to a recent flood with a return period exceeding 100 years. The hydraulic model was then used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 11 flood stages with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately 2 to 100 years in recurrence interval. The simulated flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate the flood-inundation areas. Maps of Findlay showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods.

  6. Measurement of sediment loads during flash flood events: 14 years of results from a six stream monitoring network on the southern Colorado Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, R. E.; Topping, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    In in arid and semi-arid environments, short-duration, high-intensity rainfall events—flash floods—are the primary driver of sediment transport in ephemeral streams. The spatial and temporal variability of these rainfall events results in episodic and irregular stream flow and resultant sediment transport. As a result of limited-flow durations, measuring discharge and collecting suspended-sediment samples on ephemeral streams in arid regions is difficult and time-consuming. Because of these limitations, few sediment-monitoring programs on ephemeral streams have been developed; some examples of sediment-monitoring gages and gaging networks constructed on arid ephemeral streams include Walnut Gulch, United States, Nahal Yael, Israel, and the Luni River Basin, India. The difficulty in making measurements of discharge and suspended-sediment concentration on arid ephemeral streams has led many researchers to use methods such as regional sediment-yield equations, sediment-rating curves, and peak discharge to total-sediment load relations. These methods can provide a cost-effective estimation of sediment yield from ungaged tributaries. However, these approaches are limited by, among other factors, time averaging, hysteresis, and differences in local and regional geology, rainfall, and vegetation. A monitoring network was established in 2000 on six ephemeral tributaries of the Colorado River in lower Glen and upper Marble canyons. Results from this monitoring network show that annual suspended-sediment loads for individual streams can vary by 5 orders of magnitude while the annual suspended-sediment load for the entire network may vary annually by 2 orders of magnitude, suspended-sediment loads during an individual flood event do not typically correlate with discharge, and local geology has a strong control on the sediment yield of a drainage basin. Comparing our results to previous estimates of sediment load from these drainages found that previous, indirect, methods

  7. A-type,'' flood rhyolites of Trans-Pecos Texas: A major crustal melting event at 36. 8 Ma

    SciTech Connect

    Henry, C.D.; James, E.W. . Bureau of Economic Geology)

    1993-04-01

    The Bracks Rhyolite, Star Mountain Formation, and Crossen Trachyte are related, voluminous, high-temperature ([ge]900 C) silicic lavas that constitute an abrupt, major eruptive event in Trans-Pecos Texas. They were emplaced rapidly at 36.8 Ma, at the onset of the main phase of subduction-related volcanism and immediately preceding a major basalt outpouring. Individual flows are as much as 55 km long, cover 1,000 km[sup 2], and have volumes of as much as 75 km[sup 3]. Cumulatively, they cover 10,000[sup 2] km and comprise 1,000 km[sup 3]. Despite areal extents comparable to those of ash-flow tuffs, outcrop and petrographic features clearly demonstrate that these rocks were emplaced as lavas. All the silicic lavas are mildly peralkaline quartz trachytes to low-SiO[sub 2] rhyolites (67%--72% SiO[sub 2]). They have mineralogic and chemical characteristics of A-type'' granites, including Fe-rich pyroxene, fayalite, and sodic amphibole; high Na[sub 2]O + K[sub 2]O, Ga/Al, Zr, Nb, and Y; and low CaO, MgO, and Sr. Most elements do not correlate with SiO[sub 2], indicating that they are not differentiation suites. Individual flows are strikingly homogeneous. Pb isotopic compositions show a narrow range that indicate either a homogeneous source with Th/U [approx] 6 or thorough mixing. These characteristics are consistent with magma generation by high degrees of partial melting of depleted, anhydrous crust. Trace-element models support crustal melting over AFC processes. Heat was supplied by major infusion of basalt that coincided with a regional flare-up in magmatism in the southern Cordillera. Thus, the lavas indicate both introduction of new crust and recycling of old crust.

  8. Re-visiting spring flooding as an IPM approach in Wisconsin cranberries

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    For over 100 years, flooding has been used to suppress arthropod pests of cranberries, yet questions remain as to the trade-off between pest control and flood-induced plant damage. In Wisconsin, there is much interest in the spring flood as a means to not only reduce pest populations, but also to fa...

  9. Looking toward the Future: New Research Helps Black Sororities and Fraternities Consider New Governing Structures for the Next 100 Years

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruffins, Paul

    2004-01-01

    From a historical perspective, it's interesting to note that at their 100-year mark Black fraternities and sororities are facing some of the very same political criticisms encountered half a century ago. The Black Greeks' ability to be a greater force for social change is also constrained by the basic internal structures of the organizations…

  10. The Bee Disease Diagnostic Service - 100 Years and Growing at the USDA Bee Research laboratory, Beltsville, MD

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This article discusses the history of honey bee research in the Washington, D.C. area including the 100 year old bee disease diagnostic service available for beekeepers and apiary inspectors. This service provides the Bee Research Laboratory with first-hand knowledge of the problems facing the beek...

  11. Regional flood probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100-year flood will occur on the average every 4,5 years.

  12. Flood Assessment at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site and the Proposed Hazardous Waste Storage Unit, DOE/Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Schmeltzer, J. S.; Millier, J. J.; Gustafson, D. L.

    1993-01-01

    A flood assessment at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) and the proposed Hazardous Waste Storage Unit (HWSU) in Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) was performed to determine the 100-year flood hazard at these facilities. The study was conducted to determine whether the RWMS and HWSU are located within a 100-year flood hazard as defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and to provide discharges for the design of flood protection.

  13. RASOR flood modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, Joost; Buckman, Lora; Bachmann, Daniel; Visser, Martijn; Tollenaar, Daniel; Vatvani, Deepak; Kramer, Nienke; Goorden, Neeltje

    2015-04-01

    Decision making in disaster management requires fast access to reliable and relevant information. We believe that online information and services will become increasingly important in disaster management. Within the EU FP7 project RASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment and Spatialisation of Risk) an online platform is being developed for rapid multi-hazard risk analyses to support disaster management anywhere in the world. The platform will provide access to a plethora of GIS data that are relevant to risk assessment. It will also enable the user to run numerical flood models to simulate historical and newly defined flooding scenarios. The results of these models are maps of flood extent, flood depths and flow velocities. The RASOR platform will enable to overlay historical event flood maps with observations and Earth Observation (EO) imagery to fill in gaps and assess the accuracy of the flood models. New flooding scenarios can be defined by the user and simulated to investigate the potential impact of future floods. A series of flood models have been developed within RASOR for selected case study areas around the globe that are subject to very different flood hazards: • The city of Bandung in Indonesia, which is prone to fluvial flooding induced by heavy rainfall. The flood hazard is exacerbated by land subsidence. • The port of Cilacap on the south coast of Java, subject to tsunami hazard from submarine earthquakes in the Sunda trench. • The area south of city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, prone to coastal and/or riverine flooding. • The island of Santorini in Greece, which is subject to tsunamis induced by landslides. Flood models have been developed for each of these case studies using mostly EO data, augmented by local data where necessary. Particular use was made of the new TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement) product from the German Aerospace centre (DLR) and EADS Astrium. The presentation will describe the flood models and the

  14. Assessing trends in organochlorine concentrations in Lake Winnipeg fish following the 1997 red river flood

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stewart, A.R.; Stern, G.A.; Lockhart, W.L.; Kidd, K.A.; Salki, A.G.; Stainton, M.P.; Koczanski, K.; Rosenberg, G.B.; Savoie, D.A.; Billeck, B.N.; Wilkinson, Philip M.; Muir, D.C.G.

    2003-01-01

    As we move toward the virtual elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment our understanding of how short-term variability affects long-term trends of POPs in natural populations will become increasingly more important. In this study we report short-term trends in organochlorine (OC) levels in fish from Lake Winnipeg in the months and years following the 1997 100-year flood of the Red River ecosystem. Our goal was to understand the effects of an episodic event on OC levels in benthic and pelagic invertebrates and in fish. Despite elevated loading of OCs into the south basin of Lake Winnipeg during the flood there were no differences in OC levels of surface sediments or emergent mayflies. After adjusting for differences in lipid content and length among sample times, we did find significant increases in total DDT (??DDT) and total polychlorinated biphenyl (??PCB) post-flood (March 1999) in top predators including walleye and burbot. Significant increases were also observed in OC concentrations of zooplankton and yellow perch (> 2 fold in ??PCB, ??DDT, total chlordane (??CHL), total chlorobenzenes (??CBZ)) and walleye (1.4 fold ??PCB) over a 2-month period in the summer following the flood. Analysis of specific congener patterns over time suggest that the major changes in fish OC levels pre- and post-flood did not appear to be linked to transport of new compounds into the Lake during the flood, but to species shifts within the plankton community. Our results indicate that short-term variation (???2 months) in OC distributions within biota may be equal to or greater than those resulting from episodic events such as spring floods.

  15. [Karl Jaspers. 100 years of “Allgemeine Psychopathologie” (General Psychopathology)].</